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donnie
03-08-2006, 04:35 PM
Red fork looks like a good little energy company lets see how it goes over the next year or so, its at 28c now.



The Company is focused on building significant gas-in-place reserves in its Cherokee Basin CSM project and is well placed to fast-track its CSM drilling program.
During the Quarter the Company commenced the roll-out of its CSM exploration program, with the Redfork #2-29 and the Redfork #4-29 spudded. These wells reached a total depth of 1,441 feet, intersecting their targets zones with the Dawson, Iron Post and Crowburg coals encountered with a thickness of two to four feet for each coal. Importantly, this is consistent with other producing CSM wells in this field. In addition, the Redfork #4-29 Well intersected an Oswego Limestone zone that had Electric Log Values similar to other wells in this field that have produced gas from this interval.
Production casing has now been run and cemented on both wells and they are currently shut in awaiting completion.
These wells are the first of four wells to be drilled in this initial campaign. The Company anticipates that these four wells will be drilled completed and tied-in to production infrastructure during the September 2006 Quarter. Further results including initial flow rates will be released as they become available during the quarter.
This four well sub-program is the first of the drilling programs planned for 2006 which we expect to include up to a total 10 new CSM wells.
RFE 4TH QTR ACTIVITIES REPORT
2
DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES
Development activity continued during the quarter, with the focus on the Company’s fifteen (15) existing wells to access open zones and “behind pipe” oil and gas. Production infrastructure is now in place and the Company has commenced selling gas though the Scissortail Energy sales line. The Company has received initial gross proceeds from oil and gas sales of approximately A$300,000.
The re-work program (to access “behind pipe” zones) commenced during the quarter, with the first program targeting the Bass #90-1, Osage #86-1 and the Church #88-1 wells. This program was successfully completed and the next program, targeting the CC East #4-A, CC East #2-A, Broken Drum #1-C and Demier #2-G wells is expected to be completed during the September quarter.
PROJECT OVERVIEW
The commencement of drilling is an important step in the Company’s strategy to fully evaluate and develop its Cherokee Basin CSM play. To achieve our goal of establishing a significant gas-in-place reserve we have focused on the following key objectives.
Secure strategic lease holdings and development permits.
The Company has now acquired a 100% ownership (80% Net Revenue Interest) of Oil, Gas and CSM leases covering 4,200 acres in the Cherokee Basin. Drilling permits have been prepared and filed with the Bureau of Indian Affairs and the Osage Nation Agency. The first of these permits have now been approved and the Company expects to have a total of fifteen (15) permitted drilling locations available in the second half of 2006.
Establish production infrastructure and cash flow.
Development activity to date has focused on the Company’s fifteen (15) existing wells to access open zones and “behind pipe” oil and gas. Production infrastructure is now in place and the Company has commenced selling gas and some oil. Gas is sold via the Company’s agreement with Scissortail Energy. Revenue generated from this modest initial production will assist in the funding of the Company’s planned exploration and development activity.
Commence exploration and development activities.
CSM drilling has now commenced. Data collected from this drilling activity, together with information available from our own and our neighbors’ development and production activities will be gathered and evaluated to establish the projects gas-in-place reserve potential. Independent consultant petroleum engineers will be engaged to provide an estimate. The Company expects to have this assessment completed by the end of the March quarter 2007.
Fully developed lease holding.
The Company’s strategy

Footsie
13-08-2009, 09:49 AM
Phaedrus

Would appreciate your thoughts TA wise on this stock.

It's had a bit of a pull back from its high which has cut the very steep uptrend. BUT OBV still looks good.

maybe its just consolidating after a massive run?

Phaedrus
13-08-2009, 11:18 AM
RFE has gone off the boil a little, Footsie. In fact, it began firing Sell signals nearly a week ago when the trendline break gave an exit at $1.41. The OBV had already broken its trendline, but did this by crabbing sideways rather than actually falling. Notice how the OBV has been flat over the last 6 weeks even though the price continued to rise. Those accumulating RFE are being balanced by those distributing it.

The 19 day Exponential Moving Average shown here was tracking this stock particularly well and it has now been broken. RSI and DMI have also triggered Sell signals. Note, though, that the 3 indicators at the top of the chart have not yet triggered Sell signals, though all are very close.

The 20% Trailing Stop is still well below current price action and in the event of this slide continuing would be the last to fire. They are not called trailing stops for nothing!

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/RFE813.gif

Footsie
13-08-2009, 11:23 AM
for someone who likes the stock fundamentally and wants and entry. What would you suggest they wait for?

I mean this could just be a consolidation phase... much like what ETC/nbs went through.

MrDevine
13-08-2009, 11:28 AM
Footsie you and me both. RFE just brought to my attention. Agree with Phaedrus that now is not the time to buy, but to be watched closely on the watchlist. I like the low market cap, and small number of shares on issue (115m). It's run very hard over the past 2 months, and due a breather.

Up at the open today.

Mr D watching.

Footsie
22-08-2009, 12:25 PM
anyone know what this purchase might be?

whatever it is will probably set the new trend for RFE for the coming months.

Footsie
27-08-2009, 10:53 AM
Come in spinner.... that's why FA works

I'll be looking for new highs in the not too distant future after that announcement.


Giddy UP!

Crypto Crude
29-08-2009, 05:14 PM
I wouldnt say im rip roaring excited about this companies prospects...
had a quick look at it before...
I Will have to shore up abit more research to post...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
15-09-2009, 11:38 AM
its come off quite a bit, but looks to be forming a base around the 1.15 mark.

The have some significant value in their land holdings and will be producing from two projects by year end

Crypto Crude
15-09-2009, 02:48 PM
Footsie,
Im not so confident about this company...
I gave a huge write up on HC yesterday and RFE is falling...
I will put some numbers up hopefully in a few days to support my case...
just like what ive been saying about AZZ and GDN...
not a good region to invest...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
15-09-2009, 04:34 PM
Technically this stock should not be touched at present.
But personally I still like the fundamentals.

If the technicals turn around I think it's worth looking at.

Crypto Crude
15-09-2009, 09:52 PM
I have not done any numbers on Tulsa yet but heres something for you on East Okalahoma...

Target 200 BCF
each well recoverable .3 BCF
Target to have 10 wells in production by years end
Natural gas price $3.50 per mcf
flow rates per day 300,000 cubic feet, (this is equivalent to 300 mcf)
NRI 81.25%
vertical well costs $150,000 US
production life 20 years
decline rate 8%

To answer the question of what one of these wells is worth over its life time, we can write down the future revenue streams and discount them back to a present value... equivalently we can use the growing Annuity formula to get the same answer... as flow rates are expected to decline by 8% per year, in the formula we put a negative number...

we will first work out the cashflows and then put the answer into the annuity formula, so

300,000 cf is 300mcf
and at $5 per mcf
is $1500 US per day...
note that current market price for mcf is $3.50
I am expecting the longer term price to remain much higher...

...
from that we minus production costs of $1.80 per mcf...
(low cost producer)....

300 *$1.80US= $540 US
$1500-$540=$960 per day,
our Net revenue interest or NRI is 81.25%
960*.8125= $780 US

so $780 per well, per day assuming production of 330 days per year is
$257,400 US per year...

convert to AUS dollars at .8
257,400/.8=$321,750

Now for the growing annuity formula as we want to find the cashflows for this project for its life time, (20 year production)...

Present value of a growing Annuity formula is

PV= C (1/r-g) -(1/r-g)*(1+g/1+r)^t

where PV is the present value
C is the revenue stream per year ($321,750)
r is the interest rate/discount rate (15%)
g is the growth rate (-8%)... production rate declines 8% per year as per company releases
t is time (20 years)

so plug the numbers into the equation

PV= $321,750((1/.15--.08)-(1/.15--.08)*((1-.08)/(1+.15))^20)

If you punch these numbers into a calculator you will get
$321,750 * 4.2978 = $1.383 Million dollars AUS per well over its life time...
so each well costs $150,000 US, and over its life time, of 20 years production the well will earn a total of $1.383 million AUS using a discount rate of 15%...
This discount rate is set fair which corresponds to the level of risk, and the fact that investors need to be compensated a higher rate of return for holding a (risky) development stock...percieved to be risky...


4.2978 is the annuity factor which is multiplied by the period payment of $321,740 per year...
to work through the annuity equation you need to solve the brackets first and there is a double negative in the formula because growth rate is negative with declining production...

So,
IMO getting a million and abit per well, drawn out over 20 years is not exciting when front end payments are involved with drilling costs...
(even though they and production costs are lower than normal standard)....

East Okalahoma is no good, what about Tulsa?
EOK project only works on very large scale..
with 10 well program taking 5 months, and another program planing for next year then this could be a small little earner for the company...
with lofty expenditure requirements in running an oil business, and associated costs (like tax which I never mentioned)...and 700k quarterly admin, then this is not going to be a positive cashflow company, to support a one hundred million dollar market cap....
and grow that cash backing, which is whats required to get a higher market value...
I dont think ive made any mistakes, correct me if im wrong...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
16-09-2009, 08:16 AM
Shrewdy Appreciate the work you have completed. But I disagree. EOK is good and very very good.

But without regurgitatting my model from excel totally I arrive at an NPV of

@ gas price 3.50 = US$1.63 p/share
@ gas price 5.00 = US$3.13 p /share


assumptions
wells 600
wells p/a 10 (2009) 50 (2010) thereafter 80 up to 600
flow rate 300 mcf
decline rate 8%
well cost $150,000
project life 10 years
gas price $3.50 or $5.00
gas price growth rate and inflation 3%
Royalty fee 19%


This is for EOK only, does not include West Tulsa and does not include the new land they have purchased.
West Tulsa is worth around A$1.00 per share. I havent modelled the new project.

Either way, you are looking at minimum A$3.00 per share assuming a gas price of $3.50 or better.

ELYOB
16-09-2009, 08:37 AM
Shrude Crude ,

Your analysis points to the truth with this plaything . Fundamentally , it is rubbish . All hot air , and surviving on "bluesky" operations. It seems to just hype up the machine to raise capital to survive on many times over last 5 years . The ground they have got looks dicey, and I hear others have gone to the wall with the same ground from a company call Metro Energy . Has anyone researched the relationship between Red Fork and Metro?

Something smells ?

Footsie
16-09-2009, 09:15 AM
look at RFE's announcements for the past 12-18 months.
it's nothing but good news. you cant fabricate that.

plenty of Aussie companies have come unstuck in the USA such as MAE.

Yes I agree, price action looks shocking. But other than heresay and rumour and your opinion can you actually substantiate you claim that this company is rubbish.

FYI
Metro Energy are a tiny private US Company . RFE purcahsed the OSage project off them in 2005.

Crypto Crude
16-09-2009, 09:48 AM
Footsie-
Shrewdy Appreciate the work you have completed. But I disagree. EOK is good and very very good.

But without regurgitatting my model from excel totally I arrive at an NPV of

@ gas price 3.50 = US$1.63 p/share
@ gas price 5.00 = US$3.13 p /share


assumptions
wells 600
wells p/a 10 (2009) 50 (2010) thereafter 80 up to 600
flow rate 300 mcf
decline rate 8%
well cost $150,000
project life 10 years
gas price $3.50 or $5.00
gas price growth rate and inflation 3%
Royalty fee 19%


This is for EOK only, does not include West Tulsa and does not include the new land they have purchased.
West Tulsa is worth around A$1.00 per share. I havent modelled the new project.

Either way, you are looking at minimum A$3.00 per share assuming a gas price of $3.50 or better.


Footsie,
I highlighted the important part...
600 wells...
LOL... do you really think that is an achieveable target?...

Im telling you... that would be a first for any ASX oiler in the region... 600 is completely outrageous...

The current drilling program takes 5 months to complete 10 wells...
They will get another 10 wells in 2010...
and perhaps a slightly expanded 2011....
but what... 600 wells? nope...

what do you think about my actual numbers...
ie, that one production well earns $1.3 million over its lifetime?
what discount rate did you use?
:cool:
.^sc

Phaedrus
16-09-2009, 10:14 AM
Come in spinner.... that's why FA works. I'll be looking for new highs in the not too distant future after that announcement.There is no doubt that FA works - but TA can work better!

The fundamental "worth" of RFE may well be difficult to ascertain, but the technical situation is crystal clear. RFE has fallen from $1.48 to $1 in just 6 weeks and is in an accelerating downtrend. Even the simplest technical indicators triggered very timely exit signals for this stock. (Green arrows mark Buy signals, Red arrows, Sell signals.)

http://h1.ripway.com/78963/RFE916.gif

Crypto Crude
16-09-2009, 10:15 AM
mate...
Two days ago I start posting on the Hotcopper thread RFE... and selling started to increase pushing the price down... And the very next morning/day had selling pressure all day, massive fall... There were posters/readers of that thread selling out which caused a frenzy...

Mate, I got suspended eah...
I was like, sell sell sell...
all the way down from $1.18 to 1 buck.....
which caused a mini panic...

.... damn... ive got to spot crap stocks, and start shorting them...
;)
.^sc

Footsie
16-09-2009, 10:19 AM
Fine FIne Fine, why dont you all just bag Footsie and point out what an idiot he was for not selling at $1.40 into the "bluesky" hype

:(

Talk about ganging up.

Crypto Crude
16-09-2009, 12:46 PM
footsie,
thats the elyob, Phaedrus connection...
RFE has pulled back some of the losses today...
remember that the US Nat gas market is almost in crisis mode...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
16-09-2009, 01:08 PM
It's not all bad news


NATURAL GAS PRICE TO CONTINUE TO RISE.

Natural gas prices are on an upward trajectory that can likely be sustained into the winter and the new year, says a Calgary energy analyst.

Benchmark natural gas prices rose by 13% yesterday, as the NYMEX natural gas futures for October delivery closed at $3.30 per thousand cubic feet.

"It's recovering," said Peter Linder, noting he expects natural gas prices to continue rising for the remainder of this year and into 2010.

"I'm 99% certain the doomsday prophets are wrong," he said.

Several factors have been pushing natural gas from prices below $3 to current levels, Linder said.

One reason are that hedge funds, anticipating more stringent regulations of commodities markets in the U.S. are buying back their gas contracts.

Another reason is that traders are short-covering, which means they are speculating prices will rise.

But there are also more fundamental changes underway, Linder said: low drilling levels in North America, and the associated drop in production, are gradually having an impact.

The approach of the heating season is another factor.

"People are recognizing that fundamentally, gas can stay so low for only so long," Linder said.

A recovery of Alberta's natural gas sector, however, also hinges on whether the province will further tweak its royalty regime to spur drilling.

"I think all this pessimism within this province will dissipate next year, subject to our premier putting out a reasonable, proper fiscal regime," Linder said.

STRAT
16-09-2009, 03:00 PM
It's not all bad news


NATURAL GAS PRICE TO CONTINUE TO RISE.

Natural gas prices are on an upward trajectory that can likely be sustained into the winter and the new year, says a Calgary energy analyst.

Benchmark natural gas prices rose by 13% yesterday, as the NYMEX natural gas futures for October delivery closed at $3.30 per thousand cubic feet.

"It's recovering," said Peter Linder, noting he expects natural gas prices to continue rising for the remainder of this year and into 2010.

"I'm 99% certain the doomsday prophets are wrong," he said.

Several factors have been pushing natural gas from prices below $3 to current levels, Linder said.

One reason are that hedge funds, anticipating more stringent regulations of commodities markets in the U.S. are buying back their gas contracts.

Another reason is that traders are short-covering, which means they are speculating prices will rise.

But there are also more fundamental changes underway, Linder said: low drilling levels in North America, and the associated drop in production, are gradually having an impact.

The approach of the heating season is another factor.

"People are recognizing that fundamentally, gas can stay so low for only so long," Linder said.

A recovery of Alberta's natural gas sector, however, also hinges on whether the province will further tweak its royalty regime to spur drilling.

"I think all this pessimism within this province will dissipate next year, subject to our premier putting out a reasonable, proper fiscal regime," Linder said.and interesting level of retracement there Footsie

. Anyone want to catch a falling knife? :D

Footsie
17-09-2009, 09:57 PM
someone has (caught the falling knife), its bounced off the 1.00 and 38% retracement level on good volume

i wouldnt be surprised to see it trade back above 1.20 come time for the placement to be agreed at the 1 Oct AGM


remember, nothing ever goes up in straight line.

PS Shrewd the 600 wells came from the company itself. not something i just made up.

Crypto Crude
18-09-2009, 12:04 PM
Footsie,
600 wells kind of makes me think about an Origin type operation...
RFE will be punching well above its weight if it gets anywhere near 600 production wells...
oh so overstated by the company it would seem
:cool:
.^sc

STRAT
18-09-2009, 12:19 PM
someone has (caught the falling knife), its bounced off the 1.00 and 38% retracement level on good volume

i wouldnt be surprised to see it trade back above 1.20 come time for the placement to be agreed at the 1 Oct AGM


remember, nothing ever goes up in straight line.

PS Shrewd the 600 wells came from the company itself. not something i just made up.Yup. I must confess I was tempted but chickened out in the end :D

Did you climb on board?

Footsie
18-09-2009, 12:56 PM
I have learnt one thing off phaedrus. not to buy falling stocks.
if the uptrend resumes i might consider it, but I have enough.

PS I read a article in the US about 2 weeks ago that Nat Gas was going to $1.00. I should have gone long some of the gas plays up there as soon as I read that.

Footsie
22-09-2009, 05:30 PM
shrewd

out of interest, at what price would YOU consider RFE represents good value to buy?


still cant get my head around why the price is so weak given they have only had good news.
Other than a technical retracement, nothing seems to have changed.

but hey, its not like it raced to $5.00 or anything.

Footsie
30-09-2009, 02:16 PM
price really has recovered quite well.

Crypto Crude
30-09-2009, 04:27 PM
Footsie-shrewd

out of interest, at what price would YOU consider RFE represents good value to buy?

hey Footsie,
I only just saw your post...

I dont see any real value long term in this region and based on the numbers I showed, I dont see good value in this stock going forward...
Its all just hype mate...

Theres no way RFE will get 60 production wells drilled per year to make EOK an exceptional project...
They are not Origin, or Santos...
I dont think they have those sorts of resources...

I personally wouldnt pay 50c for this stock..
based on
1) great investments elsewhere, and 2) on the scale I think RFE could produce at would make this a dribs and drabs type investment...
and even if they did get 50 production wells across the two main projects would still not be enough to support a lofty market cap...

I could eventually be wrong, but a whole lot needs to happen for
the demise of this company to really go against my sentiment...
ie, its in my favour, will just have to readdress it over time as more company developments unfold...
I think this is a long term down down down stock, and im not really prepared to give a price...
back 2 years ago on HC when RRS was a $1.10 stock, I rampantly said it was going to 10CPS...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
02-10-2009, 10:13 AM
Shrewd

Can you explain why they wont get 60 wells drilled?

the wells take 3 days to punch and are vertical (not horizontally drilled) and well depth is only 500m?


Even if we assume a few bad weeks for weather, no reason why they couldnt do 1 a week.
so say 45 wells p.a.

???

Crypto Crude
02-10-2009, 06:03 PM
footsie-Shrewd

Can you explain why they wont get 60 wells drilled?


Footsie,
in your valuation you used a target of 600 wells... wow...
60 production wells per year, wow... its an extreme target
In this industry things never happen as they are planned, and I mean never...
In time (and already), the market will start to realise that these sorts of lofty targets require a risk premium, which in turn causes the SP to fall...
this is why I have used 15% discount rate..

Im not saying that RFE cant/couldnt technically drill that many wells per year, but it looks like a major outside shot that would be more suited to 'large oil' who have the resources to step it up... not a little outfit like Red fork, and therefore the stock is trading too high as there is obviously no/little risk premium factored in... the market has most likely mis priced the risks involved, or as what usually happens in this part of the industry (US onshore), companies tend to run on 'hype'... and not run on value/fundamentals...

If RFE could drill anywhere near 60 wells per year it would make this company the most successful ASX oiler in the region ever... Even the most successful oilers onshore US, EG AMU couldnt even touch these sorts of targets...
so, its not impossible... just an outside shot...
and id call it an extreme outside shot...

As more information comes forward/ more activity comes forward then we can start to gather a much better idea of where this is heading...
right now, the market has priced in too much unforeseen blue sky...
this is why the stock will fall IMO...

who has predicted these targets?
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
03-10-2009, 06:53 PM
i emailed the company and they told me that its 40-50 wells in 2010
and 80 wells p.a. in 2011 up to 600 wells.

they said its acheiveable given shallow depth, they will have two teams of contractors working and wells can be drilled in 3 days.

and that is the story they have been telling and its how they were able to raise 24m at 1.20 yesterday.
to be honest im surprised the investors didnt go back to the table and demand a greater discount given where the stock is trading.

apparently they have flown a couple of the key stakeholders up to the USA to show them the site etc etc

i still think 1 well per week and allowing say 6-8 weeks off for bad weather is realistic

They now have the cash to do it, so will just be logistics

As a holder im waiting for the takeover....not 600 wells.

In my opinion if they can get themselves up to 40-50 wells producing and show the value of the whole project then someone Bigger will take them out.
What price? who knows but more than $1.09 me thinks. i'm happy to wait 2 years if it takes that long

Ever since i've followed RFE they have always achieved their targets and exploration has exceeded expectations. now its to to move to producer.
originally EOK was expected to have 100mcf....but it actually produces 300mcf


The buyers who just paid 1.20 for 20m shares....im wondering how they feel right now? big question is are they giong to support the price? do they believe the story?
we find out next week.

Crypto Crude
03-11-2009, 11:47 AM
Footsie,
those targets are extreme...
but will wait on more info as it comes forward...

RFE clearly below one buck...
This is not worth more than 70cents...
I think its worth much less...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
04-11-2009, 08:23 AM
i dont agree. and believe I have the numbers to back it up.

if you compare the value of MPO, SHG, AOE, and all the other csg stocks.... which have no revenue and much bigger caps...

reality is its going to take 5-10yrs to get all those wells drilled.

There is no issue with demand as oil and gas just sold into the spot market.

The stock is just having a major retrace not unusual for a resource stock. I've seen this happen time again.

Just because the stock is in a downtrend doesnt mean its future is turd. happens all the time. got to remember it went from 20c to 1.50 is rapid order. profit taking has now become a self fulfilling prophecy

by the way, i dobule checked their drill targets with a friend in the industry in nrth america. ... he said no problem . easily achievable.

I think you are mistaking horizontal csg driling with these vertical wells..... horizontal wells are timily and costly........ vertical .. its just punch and go.

its probably going to pull all the way back to 70c, but if/when the uptrend resumes, i will be loading up.

Footsie
24-11-2009, 12:17 PM
Phaedrus... looks like this one might be throwing up a few buy signals.

1) price pattern is consolidating.
2) OBV has broken downtrend
3) Steep downtrend from mid Oct broken,


Needs to close over 1.05 to break the downtrend from 2 August though and MACD is still negative at this stage.


thoughts?

Phaedrus
24-11-2009, 02:15 PM
RFE is still making lower lows and lower highs, Footsie. It's a volatile sod though and I am unable to find an indicator that really works well with it. I'd forget about the MACD though. It did fire off a "Buy" signal on 18/11, but how reliable is that likely to be? Some brief stats might help answer that question. Since 1/1/08 this indicator has fired off 14 signals - 3 winners and 11 losers. Total gains 57% vs a Buy/Hold return of 75%. 'Nuf said, as the Major would say.

There was an RSI Bullish Divergence on 11/11 but you would need to be brave (or foolish) to act on that signal in isolation.

The resistance at $1.00 (a very nice round figure) may well provide a significant hurdle that any prospective recovery must surmount.

The Trendline, Moving Average and Trailing Stop are currently all clustered around $1.08. While any break of these would provide entry signals into RFE, they are fairly conservative indicators and well above recent price action. Conservatism has its price.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/RFE1124.gif

Footsie
24-11-2009, 03:09 PM
the main change in behaviour is that the price is consolidating.... it hasnt done this for months. price action for the past 6 months has been choppy to say the least.
its traded around 95c for 6 trading days... hasnt been stable like that since May 09.

although i admit i am clutching a straws a little :)

1.00 first hurdle

1.08 and you will probably be a buyer.

Crypto Crude
26-12-2009, 09:46 AM
RFE now at 77cents...
the writing was on the wall...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
11-01-2010, 01:24 PM
phaedrus

I think we have a breakout?

RFE following on the coat tails of a turn in the gas sector.

PS what was that you were saying shrewdy??? :)

Crypto Crude
11-01-2010, 03:51 PM
yes footsie...
And Redfork almost halved on where I called it...

Going on the big targets of management, id say the Share price is trading 2 years ahead of where it should be (assuming that the company is on track to meet those targets)...
That doesnt mean that the share price wouldnt run on those future expectations, just that it shouldnt because the values not their... market is way excited about the stock...
This aint how I invest...

RFE SHOULDNT be going far because its revenue streams are not that big that they should support hundreds of millions in market cap...

looking around the sector while comparing other market caps, id say the market cap of this fork is an embarrasment to value investors...
:cool:
.^sc

Footsie
11-01-2010, 04:22 PM
That logic doesnt really apply to most oil and gas stocks

look at BOW. they are just proving up reserves. future revenue is a long way off and not yet quantifiable. m/cap 400m

2 weeks ago, you were dissing me...... i think its only fair i point out that rfe has broken out of a downtrend.

i bought most of my Forks at 50c... yes i shuld have taken profit at the trend break last year around 1.30
but sentiment has now changed. you cant argue there.

Phaedrus
11-01-2010, 04:41 PM
I think we have a breakoutWell Footsie, with RFE smashing through the theoretical resistance at $1.00 and currently sitting on a 6.6% gain in just one day it is hard to disagree with you - but all the Buy signals were triggered well before this.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/RFE111.gif

18/12/09. RSI Buy signal. This was an isolated, unconfirmed signal just like the last one back in September. It is not good practice to act on the basis of any single signal.

23/12/09. Bullish Divergence. Unlike the previous Bullish divergence back in November, this one had been confirmed by the preceding RSI Buy signal, giving an entry at 75 cents.

31/12/09. OBV trendline break. This provided volume confirmation for the preceding signals. Entry at 83 cents.

5/1/10. (1) Another volume indicator, Price/Volume Trend, broke its longstanding confirmed trendline.
(2) RFE broke above the confirmed trendline, a further confirmatory Buy signal giving an entry at 88.5 cents. By this stage, even cautious investors would have bought on the basis of a range of different indicators all having triggered Buy signals.

By 7/1/10, all the slow, very conservative indicators (Moving average, Trailing Stop, Slow Stochastic Oscillator) had triggered as well.

Footsie
12-01-2010, 11:20 AM
so if one was looking to buy RFE now, it would be best to wait for a pullback from this overbought position?
I realise though that an overbought position can be worked off by sideways price action

Footsie
13-02-2010, 01:18 PM
phaedrus. I entered on the chart break.. then got caught.

when i re-charted this using candlesticks. I discoverd a new downtrend line... and in the jan rally it hit this and sold off

so to me it needs to break this line.. which currently sits around 1.00
and i'd like to see that with a jump in OBV too

Crypto Crude
12-05-2010, 05:03 PM
numbers never lie...
...
so footsie,
those hundreds of producers, is it still on track?
:cool:
.^sc

trackers
24-03-2011, 02:10 PM
I'm in.

RFE (EOD yesterday)

3264

----
XEJ (EOD yesterday):

----

3263

upcoming SPP looks interesting

trackers
25-03-2011, 01:15 PM
Looking good again today, I'm out for a quick win (47c -> 50c)

drillfix
25-03-2011, 01:29 PM
doing well there trackers, you seem to have your finger on the pulse with few stocks quite well.

Any target in mind for this stock?

trackers
25-03-2011, 01:38 PM
Not sure, its been at heady heights before, and with a massive drilling programme and Soros' name popping up, who knows? There's also a spp pending. Will look for a re-entry on any pullback if one eventuates

COLIN
08-04-2011, 08:53 PM
Not sure, its been at heady heights before, and with a massive drilling programme and Soros' name popping up, who knows? There's also a spp pending. Will look for a re-entry on any pullback if one eventuates

Did you grab that re-entry point, Trackers? Indicators would suggest that it is still not too late to be back in, although the record date for the SPP has past. I have just discovered that unfortunately I missed out on that - I had been misled by the fact that, during the week, I received a sheaf of documents from Bailleu Stockbrokers offering to handle my application (2% stamping fee to them) and had assumed that I qualified. Was savouring the prospect of acquiring $15,000 worth at 32c, although I am sure there will be significant scaling-back.

COLIN
15-04-2011, 11:47 AM
Looks like another "higher low" has been formed, hopefully leading to another "higher high".

Something to do with the price of spuds, no doubt.

trackers
15-04-2011, 01:21 PM
Hey Colin, thought I'd replied to your post but guess not.. I bought in twice, with the first being several days after the record date (but a couple weeks before the spp was finalised) - A bit disappointed to miss out, and I wasn't the only one given what happened to the sp straight after.... Not currently holding, but still interested

gazprom1
11-06-2011, 04:07 PM
Hey Trackers,

I have had a better look at the company and what they own. IMHO I prefer AZZ to RFE but RFE does have potential. On their website I see they have 110,000 acres for EastOK whereas the latest announcement on the ASX is 50,000 acres. They are mainly targeting shale gas and there does not seem to be a huge condensate play except for Tulsa - AZZ are looking primarily at condensate at the moment. Given the current price of gas the economics are not fantastic.

Quantum sold around 6 million shares in late May but don't know what that means - lose of confidence or just a rebalance of their portfolio. AZZ have a share buy back in place - as discussed on another thread the impact of SBB's on the SP is a unknown. I think that at the beginning of a SBB, when the company still has loads to buy back, it is mildly positive for the company. Management of AZZ seem very focussed and are delivering whereas RFE seem to let their timeframes slip.

Despite all the talk around the environmental impacts of shale fraccing, I do believe that the administration will not come down hard on explorers...the amount of OIP is huge and the oil lobby is large. The US want to become more self sufficient re oil supply. IMO the cost of developing of shale gas will go down overtime and the recovery rate will go up as they drill deeper and have a 8-15 stage fraccing process. RFE has the cash to develop its acreage which is huge in the current market enviornment.

I will watch with interest.

Gaz

trackers
12-06-2011, 02:27 PM
Heya Gaz,

i agree that having condensate squarely in the picture is a much preferred situation, I like oil I just don't like how risky it can be - possible environmental issues aside, it does sound like the US is onto something with shale fraccing from a ROI point of view.

As far as quantum goes, they actually went from 13mil shares to 46mil shares (18%) in May, and the notice at the end of the month was because of SPP dilution (to 17%)?

One to keep an eye on though definitely (esp to see what happens in mississipian play), Thanks for taking the time to look into it as I respect your views!

Be interesting to see what happens to the buy back for AZZ now that sp is well above ceiling huh?

bermuda
14-06-2011, 05:09 AM
Trackers,
Have just started following RFE and was encouraged by Director purchases. Michael Fry is a Director of NWE.

Am over in UK. Horrible to hear of these new earthquakes. Stuff it. Cantabrians have had enough.

trackers
14-06-2011, 09:15 AM
Hey B, glad to hear you're safe and sound in UK, was not a fun day yesterday - the 6.0 was pretty terrifying to be honest!

Thanks for the info re Michael Fry, didn't know of the connection there. My strategy with these guys is to wait for analysis of the Schlumberger logs of their first well into the mississipian limestone - If everything's all good, I'll stay the course, but if no good I'll bail and top up AZZ.

NWE's into the business end of the Arrowsmith drill?

trackers
09-07-2011, 10:26 PM
RFE up 20% for the week.

Mississipian play still a waiting game for now