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Lizard
15-09-2006, 10:19 AM
Just moving this over to a separate thread so as not to clog up the Chart thread (I have more to add):


quote:Originally posted by Lizard

Second quarter sales and margins continue the upward trend, despite all predictions of a sluggish retail outlook. Revenue up 8.4% and profit for half year expected to be "satisfactorily ahead" of last year. I estimate it will come in at $11.9-$12.4m (last year $10.2m). Plenty of cash available for the Urban Loft roll-out, so I think they can afford to up the dividend to at least 3.25cps. My current valuation is $1.66.


Half year profit of $12.01m, dividend increased by 0.5cps to 3.5cps. Some slight softening beginning to show in sales this half, so growth likely to be lower over FY.

I estimate FY NPAT of $28.8 - $29.4m, with total dividend 8cps. Gives forward P/E of 11.5-11.7 and net yield of 5.0% at current price of $1.60. Cash increased to $54m. My valuation edges up to $1.68, but will depend heavily on the extent of any slowdown shown in second half.

Lizard
15-09-2006, 10:39 AM
Further to my valuation, was thinking that valuation is fairly meaningless without an understanding of what outlook it is based on. In this case, the $1.68 is already based on a reduction in annual sales growth rate for 2007 to 3.5% and a reduction in margins of 1.1%. By comparison, over the 5 years of historic data, sales have grown by 9%pa and margins increased over the period by 4.7%. NPAT has increased by a compound rate of 15%pa.

My valuation already incorporates a fall in profit for 2007 (and I suspect this is true of other analysts predictions). As analysts are reluctant to recommend companies in which the reported NPAT falls (due to the sentiment reaction), BGR has mostly been given a hold rating.

So far, BGR valuations and share price have risen as the company has turned out to be more resilient to slowdown than expected. Should this trend continue, there is plenty of upside to valuation. A continuation of this years sales growth and margins into 2007 would raise my valuation to $2. Furthermore, a return to the historic average growth rate from 2009 for the rest of the decade would give a value of $2.65...

Which probably all just goes to show how subjective valuation actually is. But the point is that BGR is being valued conservatively to already include a slowdown. If the slowdown fails to materially impact BGR, there could be quite a rapid move upwards in analyst valuations.

Halebop
15-09-2006, 11:27 AM
Hi Liz,

Are you are using some sort of DCF/NPV valuation? The numbers also don't mean anything without clarifying the discount rate, termination growth rate, growth rate and time line of the growth rate.

IE On 14 cents EPS BGR is worth $1.66 assuming the following: 3.9% Growth for 5 Years, 3% Termination Growth Rate, 12% Discount Rate.

On top of this if I assume say $30m of their cash is surplus to requirements, I could deduct about $1.4m net interest from earnings but add 14 cents to my valuation. This would be: EPS 13.3, Growth 3.9% for 5 Yrs, Termination Growth 3%, Discount 12%, Cash Componant +14.0c. Total $1.72.

Those assumptions are pretty modest though. Lift growth assumptions to 7% for the five years and the valuation stretches out to $1.93. My take on Briscoes is that they realy need to do something with that money. Given their business churns out reasonably good cash flow, returning it to shareholders would seem appropriate even if they have hopes of finding that bargain acquisition.

Lizard
15-09-2006, 12:37 PM
Hi Halebop,

My valuation is DCF-based with slightly different assumptions and including cash, but, as you have shown, conservative - particularly for long term holders.

Agree with you about the cash - as I said on the other thread in March:


quote:If they're not going to use the $50m cash, then maybe they could up the dividend payout ratio - one way or the other, this cash remains a key potential driver for share price appreciation.

Maybe we should crunch some numbers on what this company could be worth if they geared it and returned the excess cash ... the ROA would seem to justify it, though I'm not sure the conservative Rod would be impressed. :)

Lizard
06-11-2006, 08:44 AM
I have just reduced my FY07 NPAT forecast to $25.6 - $26.2m based on lower margins and higher corporate costs. This puts them on a forward P/E of about 13.5 at current price of $1.65.

However, higher than expected revenue growth and additional store openings have increased estimates of future earnings, so my valuation stands at $1.70.

Right now, I suspect the sp falls back slightly or tracks sideways for a while. But I still like for the longer term.

Has anyone checked out the Urban Loft store in Auckland? I take it that this has opened now and I'd be interested in any comments.

Snow Leopard
06-11-2006, 09:47 AM
I have to admit that I visited Urban Loft [:I] when I went into Auckland for an AGM a couple of weeks ago. I was interested to see one of the old buildings at Britomart being put to some use.
Nice spacious feel and good decor. The goods are well presented but whether they represent good value for money or not I can not say. It is obviously an attempt to be a lot more upmarket that your average Briscoes. It seemed to be split half kitchen equipment/crockery etc and half other household stuff.
Although I was the only 'customer' the staff I chatted to said that they get reasonably busy at lunch time and towards the end of the day. At the time of my visit they had been open two weeks.
Whether enough office workers will pop in to buy a dozen wine glasses and a decorative vase whilst waiting for the bus is the big question.

craic
06-11-2006, 09:49 AM
"New store openings" probably include the new Napier store. The old store was directly opposite Social Welfare, City Council, Air NZ and Housing Corp, Next to the Cossie Club, Lighting Direct etc. The new store is way down the road, next to nothing and on the road to nowhere. If I was a shareholder I would be worried by this strategy.

Lizard
06-11-2006, 01:17 PM
Thanks for that. I too have noticed that their choice of locations is sometimes a little odd.

limegreen
06-11-2006, 01:34 PM
quote:Originally posted by Paper Tiger
The goods are well presented but whether they represent good value for money or not I can not say.


On that point, it will be interesting to see if Urban Loft follows the Briscoes model of higher everyday prices, but creating "cheap" hype through high discount sales, or if it adopts a different strategy.

Lizard
20-11-2006, 12:54 PM
Acquisition of "Living and Giving" stores announced today. These stores were formerly owned by PRG. The latest report giving details of their performance was PRG's year to March 2006, where it was written as follows:

Living & Giving

Living & Giving has continued to refine its positioning of fashionability and
outstanding customer service in the homewares and gift market, following on
from a restructuring programme completed in the previous financial year. It
closed one underperforming store during the year under review, and now
operates nine stores.

Living & Giving's gross operating revenue for the financial year to 31 March
2006 was $13.1M, from $15.1M in the previous financial year, a relatively
flat performance on a like-for-like basis given the reduced store numbers.
Five stores were closed between May 2004 and February 2005 and therefore
contributed to sales in the year ended 31 March 2005.

It delivered an EBITA loss of $0.97M for the year to 31 March 2006, a notable
improvement on the EBITA loss of $1.7M in the previous financial year. The
management team is confident that completion of the restructuring process
enables Living & Giving to look forward to further improvements in the
future.

Snow Leopard
20-11-2006, 01:31 PM
[:0] Rod buys L&G? [:0]
I need to go lie down for a while.

Lizard
05-02-2007, 12:35 PM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

I have just reduced my FY07 NPAT forecast to $25.6 - $26.2m based on lower margins and higher corporate costs. This puts them on a forward P/E of about 13.5 at current price of $1.65.

However, higher than expected revenue growth and additional store openings have increased estimates of future earnings, so my valuation stands at $1.70.

Right now, I suspect the sp falls back slightly or tracks sideways for a while. But I still like for the longer term.

Has anyone checked out the Urban Loft store in Auckland? I take it that this has opened now and I'd be interested in any comments.


Sales for the Jan qtr came out right on line with my model, to take revenue to $372m. I am currently working on the lower end of the expected NPAT range, at $25.6m. I think BGR is pretty fairly valued at current price for now.

scamper
05-02-2007, 02:19 PM
good work Lizard.
everyone must have taken great note of your post because the jan 1/4 report has not created even a wee ripple.
in fact, the chart is beginning to look a bit tired, with bgr beginning its 9th week of ranging between 175 and 180c.
the resistance level of 180 has been tested 6/7 times to no avail.
scamper still holds some.

Deev8
16-03-2007, 05:31 PM
Briscoe Group results for the year to 28th Jan 2007 were released today.

Sales revenue up 8.3% to $372,078
Profit after tax up 5.2% to $26,048
Basic EPS up 5.1% to 12.3c
Diluted EPS up 4.3% to 12.1c
Final dividend held at 4.5c (to be paid 4th May, record date 13th April)
Total annual dividend up 6.7% to 8.0c


The full results announcement is here: NZX - Briscoe Group FY to 28/01/2007 (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=144932)

steve fleming
17-03-2007, 09:36 AM
quote:Originally posted by Lizard

I have just reduced my FY07 NPAT forecast to $25.6 - $26.2m based on lower margins and higher corporate costs.



quote:Originally posted by Deev8

Briscoe Group results for the year to 28th Jan 2007 were released today.

Profit after tax up 5.2% to $26,048



Hi Liz...Spot on!...nice work!

Lizard
17-03-2007, 01:28 PM
Thanks Steve. BGR is actually one of the most easy to model - enough history of profitable operations to be able to get meaningful results from a few basic inputs. Also,one of the most rewarding to model, because though the initial spreadsheet might take an hour or so, quarterly sales announcements take less than a minute to plug in and assess the impact. Time advantage is one more margin of safety.

I still hold BGR, though I'm not expecting alot from them for now.

I will update the model for current year when the printed report is available.

Lizard
27-04-2007, 03:59 PM
I have just been reading through the BGR annual report which arrived today. It is interesting to note the amount that has been invested in the business this year through increases in stores/floor area, purchase of Living & Giving and investment in systems. It also seems that the current year has started positively, although it is early days.

It may be foolish in the current environment, but I have upgraded my FY 2008 profit estimate to $28.4 - $29.2m and my valuation to $1.97.

Deev8
14-03-2008, 03:45 PM
Briscoe Group released their results for the year to 31st Dec 2007 (http://www.nzx.com/market/market_announcements/by_company?id=161917) this morning.

The directors of Briscoe Group Limited announce an audited net profit after tax (NPAT) of $22.4 million for the year ending 27 January 2008. The result, which is slightly ahead of the directors' most recent guidance of $22 million, compares with the $26.05 million reported result for the previous year.

The earnings were generated on sales revenue of $407.75 million, up 9.6% on the $372.08 million reported in the previous year.

The Group's gross profit increased 8.6% from $151.73 million to $164.83 million for the year, equating to a gross profit margin of 40.4% compared to 40.8% for the 2006-07 year.

Earnings before interest and taxation (EBIT) declined 12.4% from $36.25 million for 2006-07 to $31.77 million for the 2007-08 year.

The directors have resolved to pay an unchanged final dividend of 4.50 cents per share (cps). The dividend is fully imputed and, when added to the interim payment of 3.50 cps, brings the total dividend for the year to 8.00 cps (previous year 8.00 cps) and represents 76% of the Group's tax paid earnings.

The final dividend will be paid on 2 May 2008. The share register will close to determine entitlements to the dividend at 5 pm on 11 April 2008.

Group Managing Director, Rod Duke, said "This year certainly proved difficult, reflecting the challenging trading conditions faced by retailers. Despite the tight retail environment we were pleased to deliver strong increases in sales and gross profit. Operating costs were impacted by the continuing pressures of a tight labour market, high fuel and transportation costs, the opening of 11 new stores across the Group and the implementation of new SAP financials and merchandising systems software. The substantial investment in our extensive new store and store refurbishment programmes over the last several years, is the principal contributor to our interest revenue being $1.0 million lower than for the previous year. Our cash position remains strong."

Lizard
14-03-2008, 08:11 PM
My forecast of 12 months ago ended up being well out - not because of sales or margins, but because of the rate of expansion of corporate costs. I would note that from my records, BGR have expanded corporate costs at a much greater rate than the rate of revenue growth in 2 out of the past 7 years.

Dr_Who
07-05-2008, 10:32 AM
Briscoe warns of slashed profits
By DAVID HARGREAVES | Wednesday, 07 May 2008

LATEST: Retailer Briscoe Group is warning that its half-year profits might be down as much as 50 per cent on the figures for the same period a year ago.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/4514456a13.html

OUCH! Bad time to be in retail stocks. Cant see NZ economy recovering anytime soon.

Steve
07-05-2008, 07:09 PM
Briscoe warns of slashed profits

OUCH! Bad time to be in retail stocks. Cant see NZ economy recovering anytime soon.

The warning signs were out for the retail sector months ago, so it shouldn't have been such a surprise...

Lizard
24-12-2009, 05:02 PM
BGR looks like making the next step forward in current trend.

Fortunately, the GFC finally forced them to get those corporate costs under control. Signs are out that Christmas might have been good. With the lower cost structure, BGR has the potential to surprise to the upside this year and maybe next.

My valuation currently about $1.48, but with upside. This stock could really do with some liquidity though.

Anna Naum
24-12-2009, 08:53 PM
BGR looks like making the next step forward in current trend.

Fortunately, the GFC finally forced them to get those corporate costs under control. Signs are out that Christmas might have been good. With the lower cost structure, BGR has the potential to surprise to the upside this year and maybe next.

My valuation currently about $1.48, but with upside. This stock could really do with some liquidity though.

Only way it will ever get liquidity is when Rod sells down and that will NEVER happen.

Silverlight
05-02-2010, 07:40 AM
4th Quarter / Full Year Sales

The directors of Briscoe Group Limited announce that unaudited sales for the three months ended 31 January 2010 were $147.1 million, being 14.32% higher than the $128.7 million reported for the fourth quarter of last year.

Homeware sales increased 15.95% to $102.2 million and sporting goods sales rose 10.78% to $45.0 million.

On a same store basis and adjusted for the quarter just ended being a 14 week quarter (compared to 13 weeks last year), the group’s sales for the quarter were 8.53% ahead of the fourth quarter of last year.

No new stores were opened by the group during the quarter. The total number of homeware stores remained at 58 with total store area of 94,852 sqm and sporting goods store numbers at 32 with total store area of 53,714 sqm.

The January 2010 quarter sales figure takes unaudited group sales for the year ended 31 January 2010 to $416.7 million, an increase of 7.26% from the $388.5 million reported for last year. Homeware sales increased 7.01% during this period, while sporting goods sales increased by 7.82%.

On a same store basis (and adjusted for the 53 week year), the group’s sales for the twelve months ended 31 January 2010 were 4.74% ahead of the same period last year.

Homeware same store sales increased 4.16% compared with the twelve months of last year, while sporting goods sales increased by 6.02%.

Managing Director, Rod Duke said, “We are delighted with the overall performance for the final quarter of the year. The market responded very favourably to our marketing initiatives during the lead up to, and throughout the crucial Christmas trading period. This strong trading has also continued during January particularly for our Briscoes Homeware stores.

“As well as generating a same store sales increase of 8.53% for the group I am pleased to advise that we have also achieved significant margin and profit improvements continuing the trend established in every previous quarter of this financial year.

“These excellent results incorporate a less than satisfactory performance by our specialty homeware stores, Living & Giving, which operate in a highly discretionary sector that has been severely impacted by the economic downturn. As part of the half year result we made an impairment adjustment of $827K for under-performing assets associated with these stores and it is likely that a further adjustment of about $1 million will be included in the full year result.

“With the strong finish to the financial year we are confident of producing a second half performance which, as previously indicated to the market, will be significantly ahead of the second half profit reported for last year. We now expect to report a full year tax paid group profit in excess of $20 million. This includes the impact of the additional 53rd week and also the impairment adjustments. But for these two “one-off” impacts we would have achieved a group tax paid profit of around $21 million.”

The directors expect to report the final full year audited result on 9 March 2010.

BRICKS
05-02-2010, 07:55 AM
AS Mr Duke has nearly bought up all the the shares and one day turn it into a private company and will not need public money again BRICKS would not waste his time, but
then he could become a first home buyer and give up his RENTAL..

COLIN
05-02-2010, 08:01 AM
Buy Briscoes today - you'll never buy better!

DISC: Holder.

BRICKS
05-02-2010, 08:08 AM
Buy Briscoes today - you'll never buy better!

DISC: Holder.

IF Mr DUKE wants all the shares he will have to buy them off COLIN.. Regards..

The BOWMAN
05-02-2010, 08:39 AM
How much of that sale is through cutting the margin? The key is the profit I guess.

COLIN
05-02-2010, 09:10 AM
How much of that sale is through cutting the margin? The key is the profit I guess.

Hey - but they've just said that there was "significant margin improvement!"

winner69
05-02-2010, 09:18 AM
fantastic performance really ...Rod is true retailer

This and HLG recent announcement puts WHS in really bad light doesn't it .... market really not that bad after .... have what punters want and they come and buy .... instaed of going to The Warehouse

The BOWMAN
05-02-2010, 09:34 AM
Hey - but they've just said that there was "significant margin improvement!"

Oh, missed that. So far the report season started with a good note, hopefully more positive reports coming out and turn the market sentiment a bit. After all, this should be a recovery year.

percy
05-02-2010, 09:48 AM
Retail is very difficult at present.Appears someone forgot to tell Rod Duke .
This an outstanding result.

winner69
05-02-2010, 09:53 AM
Retail is very difficult at present.Appears someone forgot to tell Rod Duke .
This an outstanding result.


Thats becuase is one of few retailers in NZ .... retailing is in his blood ... he has a canny sense of knowing what punters want and how to make a buck out of them .... that to a large extend is an art .... more so than a science ... it comes naturally to him .... he is a rare breed and doesn't get the recognition he deserves

emearg
05-02-2010, 10:31 AM
I have just posted this on the WHS thread, but it seems relevant to include it here!


Rod Duke continues to prove himself to be one of the countries most capable retailers.

In my opinion Stephen Tindall used to be one of the countries most capable retailers.

I'm not sure about the current Warehouse management or strategy. They have gone a little more upmarket in terms of layout, quality and prices and don't have the constant sales that used to appeal to a lot of people (or was it just me?)

I'm not sure any of these things suit the Warehouse brand that was created over a couple of decades? It seems they have tried to become a bit of a 'me too' (like Dick Smiths have just done) shop and have perhaps lost some of their appeal because of that?

Over the past few years I have found myself buying very little from the Warehouse. Briscoes sells better quality gear (in my opinion) for not much more (when it is on sale). If I want CDs and DVDs which I used to buy at the Warehouse I now go to JB HiFi as they have a much better range and are generally cheaper.

percy
05-02-2010, 10:51 AM
emerg.
good post. my wife comes home with nice stuff from briscoes.

Lizard
06-08-2010, 10:06 AM
Second qtr results out and more evidence of tight retail conditions, with quarter down on same time last year, particularly in homewares (sporting goods up - lots of soccer balls I imagine). However, BGR continues to hold its own:


"Despite the tough operating conditions, Group EBIT has tracked ahead of last year for both quarters and we expect our results for the half year to show Group EBIT ahead of last year by around 30%

From that, I guess first half profit looks to be around $8.7m, up from prior year of $6.5m. If they can hold steady second-half through the crucial Christmas period, then probably looking at a FY of about $23.5m, or forward P/E a little under 11 at current price of $1.19. Since they're not short on cash, holding or increasing the div is no problem which should put a floor under the price at some point.

percy
06-08-2010, 11:19 AM
Second qtr results out and more evidence of tight retail conditions, with quarter down on same time last year, particularly in homewares (sporting goods up - lots of soccer balls I imagine). However, BGR continues to hold its own:



From that, I guess first half profit looks to be around $8.7m, up from prior year of $6.5m. If they can hold steady second-half through the crucial Christmas period, then probably looking at a FY of about $23.5m, or forward P/E a little under 11 at current price of $1.19. Since they're not short on cash, holding or increasing the div is no problem which should put a floor under the price at some point.

Lizard as allways it looks as though you are right on the money with this extremely well run retailer.

Catalyst
06-08-2010, 12:44 PM
Liz - Duke indicated that the 1H NPAT result will be similar to last year's $6.5m, after taking into account the extra $2.6m tax adjustment.

But I agree that the FY11 NPAT result should be slightly up on last year due to the $1.9m write-down of the Living & Giving stores last year that shouldn't be repeated this year (barring any further deterioration of retail conditions).

Assuming full year forecasts of $23m NPAT ($21m last year) and $45.7m EBITDA ($38.8m last year but Duke indicated 1H EBIT is up 30% on pcp) and net cash position steady at $59m, BGR's fundamentals look like this:

Current Market cap = $1.19 x 212.15m shares = $252m
EPS = $23m / 212.15m shares = 0.108
PE = $1.19 / 0.108 = 11.0x
EV/EBITDA = ($252m - $59m) / $45.7m = 4.2x
Gross divi yield = 7.1c / 119 / 70% = 8.5%

I value BGR at between $1.30 - $1.40 using:
PE multiple of 12x = 0.108 x 12 = $1.30
EV/EBITDA multiple of 5.5x = (5.5 x $45.7m + $59m) / 212.15m shares = $1.47
DCF of free CFs at 11.5% discount rate = $1.42

The trouble with BGR (and OIC) is that it needs to find a better place for its cash. Either find a decent acquisition or return the $59m (28cps) to the shareholders.

Lizard
05-11-2010, 08:26 AM
The 3rd quarter sales figures were surprisingly good with an increase on pcp of 6.5% - although seems they tailed off in early October after the gst increase. And the outlook statement is rather on the cautious side, so would guess a bit of pressure on margins, despite favourable forex.

Assuming an unexceptional Christmas period, I would think heading for about $23.8 - $24.1m NPAT for FY11 (excluding effect of extra $2.6m tax).

Valuation about $1.50, so nothing too exciting, but a steady longer term hold for now.

Deev8
06-11-2010, 05:13 PM
Valuation about $1.50, so nothing too exciting, but a steady longer term hold for now.
A steady longer-term hold providing a gross yield of around 8% - not bad in an income-producing portfolio.

Lizard
08-03-2011, 05:12 PM
Assuming an unexceptional Christmas period, I would think heading for about $23.8 - $24.1m NPAT for FY11 (excluding effect of extra $2.6m tax).


Result came in at $24.1m NPAT excluding the extra tax. The upside of the result was the extra 1.0cps of imputed dividend and the strong cashflow that has left them with over $82m of cash in the bank - some of it explained by seasonal factors.

There must be some headwinds for BGR in the coming year, but they are performing solidly and producing good yield (9.2% including imputation at $1.40 s.p.). Plus the extra cash in hand and rollover to another 12-month period pushes my valuation to $1.60/share so I'll probably keep holding for now.

Lizard
05-08-2011, 01:41 PM
A very strong quarterly showing from BGR with same store sales up 8% on last year. No mention of how much of that was driven by the remaining Christchurch stores!

Margins under pressure though, so that makes it tough, but expecting HY NPAT of $10.2m (up 10%). Still, second half is the biggie for BGR...

Hoping yield will support it here at $1.42, as 6.3% plus imputation is not too bad and might even be 7% if they increase the div in line with the 10% NPAT increase.

Jay
05-08-2011, 03:29 PM
Briscoes has held up pretty well today and previously just down 1c today, releasded the results on the right day eh!

percy
05-08-2011, 03:40 PM
A very strong quarterly showing from BGR with same store sales up 8% on last year. No mention of how much of that was driven by the remaining Christchurch stores!

Margins under pressure though, so that makes it tough, but expecting HY NPAT of $10.2m (up 10%). Still, second half is the biggie for BGR...

Hoping yield will support it here at $1.42, as 6.3% plus imputation is not too bad and might even be 7% if they increase the div in line with the 10% NPAT increase.
Interesting.BRG only lost Salisbury Street store,which I expect was their worst ChCh store,so with retail very poor through-out NZ I guess the remaining BRG CHCh stores are going gangbusters.A very positive announcement.

emearg
05-08-2011, 06:27 PM
Quality retailer this one IMHO :)

Lizard
05-08-2011, 09:12 PM
Quality retailer this one IMHO :)

Alhough still at the same share price I stagged at on listing day, nearly 10 years ago!

Lizard
01-11-2011, 09:51 AM
Really good sales report out from BGR for 3rd qtr - a 9.15% sales increase over pcp and even better on a same-store basis, since they've closed a few outlets over past twelve months.

While clearly the RWC-driven traffic through Rebel Sport will have been a factor, with a 24.6% increase in sporting goods, homewares also managed a creditable 8.2% same-store basis, or up 2% overall. Margins flagged as down, so how much is the question... has a big impact, but I'm going to pick $25.5 - $26.7m NPAT for year to Jan 2012.

Given the high gross dividend yield of 9.4% (at $1.40), this has made a good yield investment. It's not likely to come unstuck in the short-term either, as looks as though it would take a tough Christmas to take the wind out of this years result. Though the challenge might be to find any sellers - they've all scarpered... (unless someone wants to take out the offer at $1.95!).

SCOTTY
06-12-2011, 09:38 AM
Good to see that Briscoes now have on-line shopping - powered by: www.estaronline.com

percy
06-12-2011, 02:52 PM
Good to see that Briscoes now have on-line shopping - powered by: www.estaronline.com

Now that is interesting.Well spotted SCOTTY.

Lizard
12-01-2012, 02:46 PM
I've sold out of this one in the clean up. Been good to me and sad to see it go - but best sell while things are going well for them. I have too much in retail stocks, between this one, HLG and PHB, so one had to go. HLG has a better div, PHB has better growth...not too much in it really, but liquidity is slowly getting worse on BGR and would be nothing to sell into on a bad news day.

I'd expect first half to be good for them though, so figure I'm leaving something in it for the next guy :).

Jay
12-01-2012, 03:14 PM
I am wondering whether to sell or not as they have not gone anywhere sp wise for a while - a bit up then drift down again - have MHI as the other retail stock I hold -may hold on until the next results come out and sell into the rally!!

winner69
02-02-2012, 01:30 PM
Retail stuffed in NZ ..... Briscoes don't say so

That is a very good announcement today ..... 10% same stores sales and increased profit .... evn though margins are bit 'strained'

And one needs a 5 year chart to see that over 150 is pretty good .... for BGR


Hope Rod doesn't waste his cash pile on Dick Smiths

Lizard
02-02-2012, 04:24 PM
I thought sales revenue better than expected, but NPAT in line with where I'd put my peg earlier in the year. So, as you say, margins a bit strained.

A really solid business and hopefully it can give investors a bit of a run here... my longer-term concern was whether product costs likely to increase via forex and whether margin can be maintained, particularly as products in their categories seem fair game for internet sales (even if BGR are competing in the on-line market too).

janner
02-02-2012, 06:59 PM
No matter how many 60% + sales they have over the next three months..

NZ public are over it... Retail will decline ..

emearg
02-02-2012, 07:23 PM
No matter how many 60% + sales they have over the next three months..

NZ public are over it... Retail will decline ..

I don't agree.

People still want to buy stuff and people still need to buy stuff. People are over buying cheap crap at the Warehouse that fails two days after the warranty expires, and most can't afford the best so Briscoes is in the middle which seems to be a pretty good place to be. And people love to feel like they are getting a good price which the silly sale thing achieves.

Pretty please Rod...don't buy DSE.

macduffy
02-02-2012, 07:34 PM
I very much doubt that Rod Duke would be interested in DSE. He's much too savvy to fall for that one; has been very carefull with BGR's cash pile for many years; and has already dismissed the DSE idea, hasn't he?

janner
02-02-2012, 08:44 PM
By retail will decline.. I am saying that overall retail will decline..

Come March with Taxes .. and pressing credit card repayments.. High NZ Dollar.. Greece etc.. We are in for a decline.. Not a bust.. IMHO..

percy
02-02-2012, 08:55 PM
From what I hear retail has slowed down since Xmas.Another long hard year ahead.?
Be interested to hear how BRG online sales are progressing.? I note SCY [Smiths City] have decided to put more effort into on line ,since their L.V.Martin owned company have enjoyed very good on line sales.Smiths' massive warehouse for distribution of all Smiths stores could easily handle on line orders.
Rod Duke has done well to keep his war chest intact,and I think he is having a bit of a laugh by saying "never say never"to DSE rumour.He is an Australian after all.!!!!!!!!
"May we live in interesting times"!!!!!

janner
02-02-2012, 09:32 PM
Hey Percy.. We may have many Chinese here now.. We certainly do not want Chinese curses..

percy
03-02-2012, 06:24 AM
Hey Percy.. We may have many Chinese here now.. We certainly do not want Chinese curses..

I think the Chinese curse sums up retail at present.!!!!!!
I also seem to remember there was a tie up between Gerry Harvey and Rod Duke.?
Anyone buying into DSE would need to be part of a huge buying group.ie Westfarmers [Bunnings,Coles ] ,Harvey Norman,NAFTA [JB HI FI/Smiths City].Metcash[Mitre 10].So not many players.
Nafta,sorry if I have the name of this big Aussie/NZ buying group wrong.

Lizard
17-05-2012, 09:38 AM
And 10cps special dividend... I want my shares back, Doh!

Snow Leopard
17-05-2012, 10:43 AM
And 10cps special dividend... I want my shares back, Doh!

You win some,
and you lose some.

best wishes
Paper Tiger

Jay
17-05-2012, 12:09 PM
And 10cps special dividend... I want my shares back, Doh!

yes me to
But as PT says you win some and you lose some

But hey I bought into DIL and HLG instead and what is looking like the wrong portions of each!

emearg
06-08-2012, 07:28 PM
Another good result and the share price keeps on going up :)

Rod Duke is a good retailer...that is for sure!

percy
06-09-2012, 07:06 PM
Another good result and the share price keeps on going up :)

Rod Duke is a good retailer...that is for sure!

Just how do they do it ?
No matter,they do it very well.!!!1

emearg
06-10-2012, 07:02 PM
Seems to have broken through the $2 mark. Where to from here? What is fair value?

macduffy
07-10-2012, 06:16 PM
Questions about "fair value" always appear to me to be similar in nature to those about the meaning of life. The answer depends very much on the assumptions made.

I hold BGR because it is a consistently good performer amongst a group of struggling retail stocks; it's conservatively financed, profitable and well managed.

emearg
01-11-2012, 06:49 PM
Questions about "fair value" always appear to me to be similar in nature to those about the meaning of life. The answer depends very much on the assumptions made.

I hold BGR because it is a consistently good performer amongst a group of struggling retail stocks; it's conservatively financed, profitable and well managed.

Fair point. Shall we discuss the meaning of life? Perhaps Rod Duke can provide input? Assuming he isn't too busy being a retail god. Actually, I'd rather leave him to managing Briscoes. His time is better spent doing what he does so well :)

percy
01-11-2012, 07:54 PM
[
I hold BGR because it is a consistently good performer amongst a group of struggling retail stocks; it's conservatively financed, profitable and well managed.[/QUOTE]

I can think of no better reasons to hold a stock.Just wished I could say the same for all/most stocks I hold.

emearg
22-01-2013, 11:35 AM
Seems to have broken through the $2 mark. Where to from here? What is fair value?

Briscoes is sitting at $2.54! This retailer really is back in favour! Up 77% in one year compared to WHS's 1.6%

I hope their next results announcement (due in a couple of weeks) is a good one or I suspect the shareprice will fall back rather hard!

emearg
01-02-2013, 09:07 AM
The result is out. Not bad work I reckon.

Here is the commentary:
Managing Director, Rod Duke said, "We are reasonably pleased with our sales, margins and overall performance for the final quarter of the year. Competition was fierce across most retail sectors but customers responded favourably to our marketing initiatives, which continually reinforce our unique product quality, range and value combination. Trading was particularly strong immediately prior to and post Christmas, and we were especially pleased with the significant lift in sales achieved by our online stores across all three trading brands for December. We will continue to drive all of our businesses to ensure our customers have the best possible choice of product and that they have a great in-store experience. It's not sufficient just to offer on price! It is clear that to attract customers it is essential to provide a great value proposition.

"The performance of Rebel Sport is also a highlight for us this year given the extremely high comparative numbers we were up against as a result of the significant boost in business generated by the Rugby World Cup in 2011. For Rebel Sport to post positive same store sales, increased gross profit margin and increased bottom line profit for the year is an achievement we are very proud of.

"We now expect the Group's reported full year tax paid Group profit to exceed $30.0 million. This would represent an increase of at least 9% over last year's $27.53 million reported full year NPAT."
</commentary>

9% boost in profit! Good work Rod Duke and team says this happy owner of a wee slice of the Briscoes pie. Emmmmm pie :p

KJ
05-02-2013, 02:13 PM
I decided to sell today as it is probably overvalued like a number of stocks.
Current yr NPAT will be about $30.4m-PE 17.3
Next yr say NPAT $33.4m-PE 15.8
If the market generally comes back BGR will fall off quite a bit I think & WHS may be a tougher competitor as it looks to improve the brands it offers.Could be completely wrong of course.

emearg
07-02-2013, 08:32 AM
Think you left too soon...special divs to come because of all the cash.
I agree with the first part but I'm not sure about a special dividend. They have been sitting on a large pile of cash for many years which meant they didn't have to worry about debt restructuring during the GFC. That is how Rod likes to run things i.e. in a conservative manner. They did make the point a year or two back that the pile of cash varies significantly (40 million?) over a 6 month reporting cycle.

Has there been anything announced that makes you think a special dividend is coming?

KJ
07-02-2013, 08:37 AM
Think you left too soon...special divs to come because of all the cash.

Ah-fear & greed.I have a good profit and am happy with that.I see what I think are better opportunities for my money.No one can know the short term price movements & that is how it is.Is the price going to continue to rise? maybe.Will there be a special div? maybe.Will the price be $2 in 3 mths time? maybe.

emearg
07-02-2013, 08:45 AM
Ah-fear & greed.I have a good profit and am happy with that.I see what I think are better opportunities for my money.No one can know the short term price movements & that is how it is.Is the price going to continue to rise? maybe.Will there be a special div? maybe.Will the price be $2 in 3 mths time? maybe.

Nobody really knows the answers to those questions but the same questions can be asked about all stocks. BGR is looking expensive compared to WHS but I wouldn't put any money into the WHS as their business plan is a disaster in my opinion. So cheap doesn't mean good value.

Out of interest what are you buying into with your BGR money?

winner69
07-02-2013, 11:20 AM
Nobody really knows the answers to those questions but the same questions can be asked about all stocks. BGR is looking expensive compared to WHS but I wouldn't put any money into the WHS as their business plan is a disaster in my opinion. So cheap doesn't mean good value.

Out of interest what are you buying into with your BGR money?

How do you guys 'value' the cash when saying BGR looks expensive

emearg
07-02-2013, 12:19 PM
How do you guys 'value' the cash when saying BGR looks expensive

I don't think BGR is expensive. I just said it looks expensive when compared to WHS (on a PE basis)

KJ
07-02-2013, 12:33 PM
Emearg-have not bought yet as I feel the market may well come back-am interested in TEL-I tend to buy mainly good div stocks.

KJ
07-02-2013, 02:51 PM
Emearg-have not bought yet as I feel the market may well come back-am interested in TEL-I tend to buy mainly good div stocks.

And FBU at $8 or less

emearg
07-02-2013, 03:14 PM
And FBU at $8 or less

Yes the market may come back but it may keep going up for the next 6 months...

FBU has been trending up for the last four months. With Chch, Mainzeal etc I can't see any reason for it to fall below $8. The current share price is forward looking and that seems completely reasonable to me.

BGR has been trending up for the last 12 months. I can't any reason for it to go backwards as they keep producing better and better results. Doesn't BGR pay a good dividend?

KJ
07-02-2013, 03:41 PM
Yes the market may come back but it may keep going up for the next 6 months...

FBU has been trending up for the last four months. With Chch, Mainzeal etc I can't see any reason for it to fall below $8. The current share price is forward looking and that seems completely reasonable to me.

BGR has been trending up for the last 12 months. I can't any reason for it to go backwards as they keep producing better and better results. Doesn't BGR pay a good dividend?

My FBU comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek.I have been posting on that site & am aware of where it's at.

I have said all I want to say re BGR & you want to keep telling me I am wrong to sell.I am the first to say I could be.However I have made a good profit.BGR's share price is up about 80% in the last yr & it's profit will be up about 10%-sound OK to you? Give me your estimate of 2014 profit & share price.

emearg
07-02-2013, 04:29 PM
My FBU comment was a bit tongue-in-cheek.I have been posting on that site & am aware of where it's at.

I have said all I want to say re BGR & you want to keep telling me I am wrong to sell.I am the first to say I could be.However I have made a good profit.BGR's share price is up about 80% in the last yr & it's profit will be up about 10%-sound OK to you? Give me your estimate of 2014 profit & share price.

No I'm not telling you you're wrong. You made a decision based on lots of variables I'm not aware of. I said it was in a uptrend and I can't see any reason for it to go backwards. I may be wrong but as a long term I holder I'm not worried about short to medium term adjustments. We both get to make our individual calls.

Yes you have done well. Good work.

I don't have an estimate and trying to pick the share price is not something I can do. I was surprised when it got to $2 as it had been below $1 for such a long time and not much had changed. Just market perception it seemed to me. And here it is at $2.5 Where to from here? I don't know, but as noted I can't see any reason why it should fall and therefore I can't see any reason to sell. If I could see a reason for it to fall then I would consider selling as holding under those circumstances would be foolish.

Sorry if you felt I was trying to wind you up.

KJ
07-02-2013, 04:42 PM
That's fine Emearg -good luck with the hold.If I get the chance I will buy back in at $2-2.10

SCOTTY
08-03-2013, 08:16 PM
www.stuff.co.nz/business/8394274/Online sales

Online sales drive Briscoes result - powered by: www.estaronline.com

macduffy
05-09-2013, 12:24 PM
Another record interim result from Briscoes.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/financial-results/9129541/Briscoe-interim-result-pleasing

I hold a few.

boofters
05-09-2013, 03:12 PM
Being a biased MHI holder, it makes me think MHI is under valued relatively speaking.

Mkt Cap are more or less identical and yet BGR abilities to grow through increasing margin will be very difficult..read impossible within any online model IMO, which Rod seems pretty bullish on
"We are encouraged by the growth in online and will continue to focus resource to ensure development of this key area of our business.”"
Good luck to him but he aint Jeff Bezos

one skeptical boofters

SCOTTY
05-09-2013, 07:51 PM
Being a biased MHI holder, it makes me think MHI is under valued relatively speaking.

Mkt Cap are more or less identical and yet BGR abilities to grow through increasing margin will be very difficult..read impossible within any online model IMO, which Rod seems pretty bullish on
"We are encouraged by the growth in online and will continue to focus resource to ensure development of this key area of our business.”"
Good luck to him but he aint Jeff Bezos

one skeptical boofters

BGR uses the EstarOnline Ltd ecommerce technology and platform. Sales growth and future focus for BGR online sales must reflect well for www.estaronline.com

Cheers

Schrodinger
30-01-2014, 10:21 AM
Briscoes announces a good result and other retailers complain about online competition from overseas. Maybe other less well run companies should up their game and improve their offerings instead of blaming progress?

samdaman
30-01-2014, 10:44 AM
Briscoes announces a good result and other retailers complain about online competition from overseas. Maybe other less well run companies should up their game and improve their offerings instead of blaming progress?

I could be wrong as I'm new to this all but it could be due to the fact that briscoes offers items that can't be confidently bought off the internet or from overseas, like furniture and outdoor attire. Since a lot of people buying those sort of items don't want to just ship it in from overseas on the basis of a picture it may be securing in a portion of their customer base as people don't want to order a green set of chairs to find out that they're a sort of yellowy green and the picture the saw was taken in a funny light.

on the flipside, places which are mainly clothing brands can be undercut massively like sites like asos where the clothes and shoes are decently priced and the shipping is free. That only adds the appeal of a fairly priced item and you didn't have to leave your house to go and get it.

Harvey Specter
30-01-2014, 11:15 AM
I could be wrong as I'm new to this all but it could be due to the fact that briscoes offers items that can't be confidently bought off the internet or from overseas, like furniture and outdoor attire. Since a lot of people buying those sort of items don't want to just ship it in from overseas on the basis of a picture it may be securing in a portion of their customer base as people don't want to order a green set of chairs to find out that they're a sort of yellowy green and the picture the saw was taken in a funny light.my guess is most Briscoes stock is actually quite small - kitchen stuff, sheets, etc. The odd bit of furniture but most of the stuff I have bought from there is kitchen related.

The wrong sort of plugs may have an impact as a kettle bought from amazon.com (now with free shipping to NZ) would need to be rewired.

Lizard
30-01-2014, 11:46 AM
Maybe it is also the typical age profile for the purchasers at BGR who might be a bit older than Glassons customers?

I am surprised to find how many times my teenage daughters now ask me to undertake on-line transactions for them to buy clothes - not something I thought would end up being so popular on-line due to the difficulty of fitting them. But since they can shop that way without driving anywhere (only one has a restricted licence so far) and they don't have to deal with the realities of grumpy shop assistants and security bag searches, they seem to prefer it. Oh, and they can shop during their awake time - which sometimes seems to barely over-lap with normal business hours during school holidays!

Schrodinger
30-01-2014, 11:55 AM
lol Lizard. I think a few also have highly accurate online fitting options designed for these people.

benjitara
30-01-2014, 12:03 PM
What a great result. Given the pressures on retail Briscoes have been able to continue margin growth (albeit small). impressive sales increases... I don't hold but I'm pleasantly surprised by these guys. growth going forward will be harder to establish but with macro themes in their favour at the moment I'm sure their run of good returns will not be stopped for some time.

Also, its easy to think that the internet and online will destroy business for these traditional brick and mortar companies. I 've got to say that online is a competitive world FOR EVERYONE. Briscoes+ the warehouse could all BENEFIT and actually gain profit margins and growth from a strong move into the online market. It will help with stock turnover rates, cut down staffing costs and depreciation of a website is hardly equal to that of tangible assets. Those you work effectively in the online sphere will reap the benefits.

macduffy
30-01-2014, 01:09 PM
So what do online buyers think of the Briscoes' online "branch"?

Personally, we're able to visit their stores for the occasional toaster, jug, pot or pan but appreciate that some may need to go the online way and have them delivered. How competitive, for example, is their delivery system with other online vendors of homewares - which is, after all, the mainstay of their business?

I hold a few.

macduffy
06-03-2014, 03:43 PM
Meanwhile, BGR delivers its expected 10% profit increase and an increased final dividend.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/9797976/Record-profit-for-Briscoe-Group?cid=edm:businessday:dailybrief

emearg
06-03-2014, 08:24 PM
Every result is a dull as the one before it. Increased revenue, increased profit, challenging environment etc etc. Can't they get interesting like The Warehouse is?

I'm glad I hold BGR :t_up:

macduffy
03-05-2014, 07:57 AM
Another "boring" quarter from BGR!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11248416

:cool:

Onion
05-05-2014, 04:00 PM
Do holders of BGR expect any SP appreciation any time soon? It appears to be very flat over the past year. Or are you all content with a dividend stream?

I'm puzzled by the non-movement in SP given they seem to be doing the right things. The brief increase in March seems to be just a tease.

Disc: Not holding

winner69
09-06-2014, 07:29 PM
Why This company led by Rod are great retailers

Read about Rebel Sports new TV ad
http://www.stoppress.co.nz/blog/2014/05/rebel-sport-continues-its-brand-story-poetry#comment-1423794624

At least watch the video Ode to Winter starring Brad Thorne

emearg
06-08-2014, 09:35 AM
Every result is a dull as the one before it. Increased revenue, increased profit, challenging environment etc etc. Can't they get interesting like The Warehouse is?

I'm glad I hold BGR :t_up:

When will Briscoes release some results that are different so I can type something different?!!!! So boring!!!

emearg
06-08-2014, 09:41 AM
When will Briscoes release some results that are different so I can type something different?!!!! So boring!!!

It is pleasing to see the better performing retailer is being recognised by the market.
6110

Okebw
22-08-2014, 09:23 PM
I don't hold BGR and of course cure kids is something I support, but $400,000 is quite a bit to donate to charity. That's nearly 2c a share.

Sideshow Bob
22-08-2014, 09:41 PM
An undisclosed amount came from customers - so not all for from Briscoes.

macduffy
23-08-2014, 08:22 AM
An undisclosed amount came from customers - so not all for from Briscoes.

Quite so, Bob. As a regular, towed-along visitor to Briscoes one can't help noticing the donation boxes for Cure Kids on the counters. More power to them!

:)

Sideshow Bob
23-08-2014, 10:22 AM
Not having a shot at Briscoes at all, but always wondered a little about corporate motivations with such charity donations.

Briscoes and many other retailers collect money for charity, which is great. However the donation as in last night comes from the retailer, in is case Briscoes. So they get some good publicity from it - they could have donated $1k and customers the other $399k. Who knows, although might be in their annual report. However many I guess would have more self serving motivations.

As I said, not a shot at BGR at all. And a great cause.

I know from the Chch EQ for instance, the company I work for made a sizeable contribution. Some of which was in kind, some of it was money from our customers, and some from the company. I know it all wasn't altruistic.........but I guess it just goes with the territory.

percy
23-08-2014, 11:27 AM
When I owned a retail store I had organizations,and no end of charities approaching me for donations.I got sick of it.
Maybe,and just maybe Briscoes can get shot of these people by saying "we only support cure kids".

Sideshow Bob
23-08-2014, 01:12 PM
Indeed Percy. I know our company gets hit up by all and sundry, and can understand completely getting sick of it, especially when often no or little benefit to your business.

Yes, the answer could be just to have one charity - especially something as worthwhile as Cure Kids.

macduffy
04-09-2014, 12:59 PM
The anticipated boringly excellent result from BGR.

NPAT up 23%, increased dividend. I continue to hold.

:cool:

Hawkeye
04-09-2014, 03:14 PM
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/briscoe-1h-profit-jumped-24-shares-rise-record-bd-161864

Glad I snagged some of these pre world cup

winner69
04-09-2014, 03:21 PM
and still $60m plus sitting in the bank

Beagle
04-09-2014, 05:20 PM
On the other hand, the N.Z. dollar has now come back a fair bit making imports more expensive, customers now face higher mortgage rates and the economy is being impacted by a massive slide in Dairy prices.
That and the relentless increase in online trading, is this as good as it gets and are they expensive on a PE basis for a retailer ????? I was in one of their stores last week and walked out underwhelmed and gobsmacked at the price they wanted for a 2 pack of genuine Oral B toothbrush heads ($27.95). They didn't have a four pack which my wife usually gets at the supermarket for the same price. I walked out in disgust as a matter of principle..these things are probably made under licence in China for 2 or 3 cents each.
Came home, jumped on Trade me and ordered a 2 x 4 packs of the generic copy toothbrush heads for $6 including delivery. 75 cents per toothbrush head instead of $14.00.
To add insult to injury I was in Harvey Norman later in the week and noticed four packs of genuine Oral B toothbrush heads for $17.95 which appeared to be their regular price.
And just to prove that's not an anomoly here's Noel Leemings price for the identical product
http://www.noelleeming.co.nz/shop/household/personal-care/electric-toothbrushes/oral-b-eb17-2-precision-clean-refill-2-pk/prod99541.html
Makes me wonder if all those Briscoes sales they have every 2 minutes are nothing but a great big price CON because even at 30% off you're paying through the nose and then some. I wonder if BGR is code or acronym for Burglar ?
Next time I want anything in the way of product lines that Briscoes sells I'm going straight on Trade Me, saving time, money and petrol :)

winner69
04-09-2014, 06:36 PM
Roger - you obviously not a retailer (of note). Rod has it in his veins - a born and bred retailer

For all his sales Rod makes a 40% margin - mind you his cost of doing business is 32% of sales which only leaves him 5% after tax so he has to cream it on some items eh.

Rod unlike some retailers knows instinctively that if you buy lots of things for a buck each you need to sell them all at an average of $1,67 or else you go broke .... and iyo get there you sell x at $2.50 and y at $2.00 and the rest during the sale at $1.25

Probably doesn't even use a calculator - just like darts players seem to know that 3*19 plus 2*16 plus 2*15 is 50 is 119 in an instant. Pure mathematical geniuses until they go shopping and they don't know that 1 margarine at $2.62 and bottle milk at $3.99 is $6.61

winner69
05-09-2014, 07:31 AM
Rod is usually so laid back and hardly ever gets excited about things but heck he has taken some happy pills lately and is full of it. The future is bright as

http://www.radionz.co.nz/audio/player/20148458

winner69
05-09-2014, 07:40 AM
Briscoes been selling some Royal Doulton and Wedgewood stuff for a while. Apparently for some of the products (tableware) Briscoes are one of top resellers in th world. So mpressed were were Wedgewood they approached Rod and want to do heaps more business with him.

Jeez Wedgewood and Royal Doulton in Briscoes .....real step up in class eh.

Folklore has it when asked what impact on the likes of Kirkcaldies Rod said they will just have to lower their prices eh .....and increase their losses

percy
05-09-2014, 08:58 AM
Briscoes been selling some Royal Doulton and Wedgewood stuff for a while. Apparently for some of the products (tableware) Briscoes are one of top resellers in th world. So mpressed were were Wedgewood they approached Rod and want to do heaps more business with him.

Jeez Wedgewood and Royal Doulton in Briscoes .....real step up in class eh.

Folklore has it when asked what impact on the likes of Kirkcaldies Rod said they will just have to lower their prices eh .....and increase their losses

I noted they intend to spend more on their on line presentation,as their on line business has certainly grown with the help of www.estaronline.com.
Wedgewood and Royal Doulton on line could become even cheaper??

emearg
05-11-2014, 09:37 AM
More of the same announced today. Here is part of Rod's commentary:
"As we begin the crucial final quarter we remain optimistic in our outlook. We are certainly encouraged by our performance to date and are confident that the Group's full year tax paid profit will easily exceed last year's tax paid profit result of $33.58 million."

bunter
05-11-2014, 10:33 AM
"More of the same announced today."

Exactly.. it's no surprise when BGR surprises the market.

BGR did well when other retailers struggled, and now retail seems to be recovering.
Now there's a best of breed stock.

Encouraging too that there was no price increase (info leak) before this announcement.

Have upgraded to 12% pa long term div growth - $4.01 fair value.

"Easily exceed" - my guess is a 25% plus improvement in FY 15 profit and div.

BFG
05-11-2014, 11:21 AM
Serious question. Is Briscoes ever NOT on sale? I'm not complaining that's for sure!

Jay
05-11-2014, 12:44 PM
Tuesday to Thursdays I think unless there is a public holiday just before or during those days BFG!

Biscuit
05-11-2014, 12:59 PM
Serious question. Is Briscoes ever NOT on sale? I'm not complaining that's for sure!

I'm complaining. My wife is always saying..."look what I got, it was 30% off...." No amount of yammering on my part will convince her that that is the real price and no money has been saved.

macduffy
05-11-2014, 01:55 PM
Serious question. Is Briscoes ever NOT on sale? I'm not complaining that's for sure!

Yes - and no.

Not all sales are equal with the percentage "off" varying and usually applying to specific types of goods. But it seems to be a successful strategy for growing sales and profits so no complaints here, either!

;)

macduffy
05-03-2015, 11:22 AM
Yet another record profit!

:)

emearg
06-03-2015, 11:27 AM
How many years has it been since they didn't have record growth in sales and profit? So boring! :)

I see another big retailer is struggling. Perhaps they need to attend night classes taught by Mr Rod Duke? LOL

macduffy
06-03-2015, 12:40 PM
How many years has it been since they didn't have record growth in sales and profit? So boring!


Yes, I've been in since the IPO and can't remember any disappointments. But then, there's a lot of things I can't remember these days!

:)

macduffy
06-03-2015, 12:41 PM
How many years has it been since they didn't have record growth in sales and profit? So boring!


Yes, I've been in since the IPO and can't remember any disappointments. But then, there's a lot of things I can't remember these days!

:)

And I repeat myself.

;)

macduffy
07-03-2015, 07:58 AM
The fact that there's been no acquisitions reflects the company's - ie Rod Duke's - view that there isn't any retail business worth buying out there, at least at a sensible price. A commentary on the difficulties facing retail generally?

percy
07-03-2015, 10:51 AM
The fact that there's been no acquisitions reflects the company's - ie Rod Duke's - view that there isn't any retail business worth buying out there, at least at a sensible price. A commentary on the difficulties facing retail generally?

He has shown great discipline.
Maybe more into online?

macduffy
07-05-2015, 07:42 AM
Whatever Rod's doing, it's still working!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/briscoe-group-limited/news/article.cfm?o_id=27&objectid=11444132

:)

emearg
07-05-2015, 06:13 PM
Whatever Rod's doing, it's still working!

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/briscoe-group-limited/news/article.cfm?o_id=27&objectid=11444132

:)

I like how The Warehouse gets a subtle mention :)

"For a few years I think people have been satisfied with cheapest price, poorest quality and I think they've grown out of that now because very often when you operate in that category, your busiest department is returns," Duke said.
"I think customers' perception of value changes over time with poor experience and I think for at least the last six or seven years we've enjoyed extraordinary growth compared to some of our peer group."

winner69
15-05-2015, 07:29 AM
Rod's ASM speeches are almost as inspirational as Warren Buffett's ones, well almost

A must read

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212966.pdf

jetski1999
11-06-2015, 03:52 PM
great sale today at manukau briscoes, I wandered in as I was buying something near by to have a look even ended buying some plates. they had all six cashiers working and ladies were buying stacked shopping trolleys of goods. The queue was ten deep, I have never seen that before there, I wondered how many WHS customers are they grabbing

Sideshow Bob
11-06-2015, 08:15 PM
Is the dollar about to start squeezing their margins?

benjitara
11-06-2015, 08:29 PM
Is the dollar about to start squeezing their margins?

Their margins are amazing currently. Put the sheds to shame....

QOH
12-06-2015, 08:06 AM
great sale today at manukau briscoes, I wandered in as I was buying something near by to have a look even ended buying some plates. they had all six cashiers working and ladies were buying stacked shopping trolleys of goods. The queue was ten deep, I have never seen that before there, I wondered how many WHS customers are they grabbing

Yes great sale, but if every shopper was like me I doubt Briscoes made much profit yesterday unless their markup is huge.
Did a quick tally when I got home, original ticket prices on what I bought was approx $140, cost yesterday to me was $39.98.

winner69
12-06-2015, 08:13 AM
Yes great sale, but if every shopper was like me I doubt Briscoes made much profit yesterday unless their markup is huge.
Did a quick tally when I got home, original ticket prices on what I bought was approx $140, cost yesterday to me was $39.98.

And Briscoes bought the stuff for $15

So even if the NZD falls a lot Briscoes might have to pay $17 for those goods. They have ticket prices of $170 and you get carried away and pay $49.95 - hey you 'saved' more and Briscoes made more.

Good all round eh

winner69
01-07-2015, 03:44 PM
KMD good acquisition for Briscoes? Nobody seems to want to answer that question

One good thing is that a script issue brings Rods share down to 51% odd.

That and the intent to list on ASX will improve liquidity a lot .....and make Briscoes a more attractive market investment. Also a much bigger company.

Wouldn't want to pay too much more than they already offering though.

macduffy
01-07-2015, 04:35 PM
Yes, winner, I'm a bit in two minds over that, as well. KMD brings a lot of Aussie exposure with it and NZ companies don't have a good track record there, by and large. WHS, HLG, AIR, Pumpkin Patch - but on the other hand, Rod Duke is a good operator, has a lot of skin in this particular game and is an Aussie! I'll give him the benefit of the doubt at this stage that he'll not overpay and will be prepared to walk away with 19.9%, or a bit more, if the market doesn't like his price.

benjitara
01-07-2015, 05:09 PM
I was down at the nzopen this year and noticed Rod Duke had Steve Williams caddying for him. While I believe he won a charitable auction for him to have steve on the bag, it also hits me that Rod probably just wanted to get that little bit more from his golf game too and so coughed up a bit of extra cash to have the golfing brain on the bag. He's a competitive guy I'd imagine. good on him. Any holder of Kathmandu who doesn't want Briscoes shares probably needs to go see a doctor of some variety.

jmsnz
01-07-2015, 05:36 PM
This is interesting. I have been a long term investor in BGR, having done well from that investment, and like the way they operate and the strategies they employ. For me a large part of that is Rod and his very clear and direct leadership. KMD on the other hand I have never been so excited about from an investment point of view always seem to struggle really. I can see why BGR think it is a good fit for them though:
1) BGR sells stuff that everyone needs (Is there anyone who has not actually spent money at a Briscoes store?)
2) BGR positions itself as selling stuff that everyone needs but with better quality than the opposition
3) Rebel Sport replicates that position, albeit not quite so universally, in that not everyone buys sporting gear
4) But for those that do the marketing proposition is the same as for Briscoes - a wide range of choice, at a good price/quality point compared with the opposition

KMD is like Rebel, its the place you go to buy outdoor focused stuff at a good price/quality point compared with the opposition. Real enthusiasts don't buy from either KMD or Rebel, they go to specialist retailers for that but I can see that BGR's strategies for getting punters into Rebel will transfer to KMD and likewise with their buying, warehousing and logistics strategies are likely to be complementary.

I can't make the same case for Living & Giving, I have never thought that is a good fit for BGR really.

My concerns would be:
KMD appear to be a large pill for BGR to swallow, just way more stores and geography to cover
NZ Retail companies don't have a great history in expanding outside of NZ
That they have paid too much and cannot get the margin levels that they expect to from the KMD stores

I think that it might be time to consider taking some of my profits off the table, just in case.

macduffy
03-02-2016, 04:55 PM
BGR expects to announce another good profit increase next month.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11584101

Despite Kathmandu's improved performance I'm quite happy that BGR didn't manage to get a bigger chunk of that company.

:cool:

jmsnz
03-02-2016, 05:52 PM
BGR expects to announce another good profit increase next month.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11584101

Despite Kathmandu's improved performance I'm quite happy that BGR didn't manage to get a bigger chunk of that company.

:cool:

I did sell a few BGR shares in the name of conservatism and 'portfolio re-balancing' but like you I am quite pleased about the KMD outcome.

SCOTTY
05-02-2016, 07:42 AM
Yes a great result. As a SH in www.estaronline.com I was very pleased to see that their client the Briscoe group had grown online sales for the full year to 31st January 2016 by over 40% with Mr Duke expecting this strong online sales growth to continue.

trader_jackson
10-03-2016, 08:11 AM
https://www.nzx.com/companies/BGR/announcements/279052

Looks like a great result

winner69
11-03-2016, 08:16 AM
I love the way that Rod sees the market
http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201792764/briscoe-group-sees-tougher-retail-conditions-ahead

He seems comfortable where he is with home wares and sports stuff. Not much threat from big global players

Live his dig at Hallensteins (implied) but bet he hopes Kathmandu not in same boat

macduffy
12-03-2016, 10:40 AM
Rod duke doesn't see any competitive threat from offshore to the Rebel sports goods business but an article in the AFR this week quoted the CEO of Decathlon, the French based world's biggest sporting goods retailer, announcing its intention to open its first stores in Australia shortly, with the aim of 35-40 stores within 10 years. No mention of NZ there - yet.

http://www.afr.com/real-estate/french-giant-decathlon-bulks-up-in-australia-20160307-gnd5sp

winner69
10-05-2016, 09:55 AM
Economy is well and truly stuffed if you bother read those bank economists reports

But Briscoes sales are booming - up 11% on last year

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BGR/announcements/282091

winner69
10-05-2016, 09:58 AM
Only the winners win in tough times

How tough, very tough says Rod but we don't let them get in the way of making more money -

“Our markets continue to be fiercely competitive with on-going economic challenges likely to be faced by ourselves and other importers and retailers from such factors as the depressed dairy sector, and the hedging of foreign exchange exposures at less-favourable rates than in recent years. At Briscoe Group we recognise such challenges and risk exposures and manage them as effectively and prudently as we can.

winner69
03-08-2016, 12:05 PM
Stunning announcement today

An economy on fire and Briscoes capitalise on that big time - and on the latest sales data taking share from others

He a guru - that Rod. A man with retail in his blood - no need for a Harvard MBA or that sort of stuff.

macduffy
03-08-2016, 01:21 PM
Stunning announcement today

An economy on fire and Briscoes capitalise on that big time - and on the latest sales data taking share from others

He a guru - that Rod. A man with retail in his blood - no need for a Harvard MBA or that sort of stuff.

Just another BGR record, winner! And the sort of management flair that Kathmandu could do with!

;)

winner69
03-08-2016, 01:37 PM
Just another BGR record, winner! And the sort of management flair that Kathmandu could do with!

;)

You need to be born with that flair for retailing ...have it running through your veins

Almost impossible to be picked up by going to Harvard (or any top management school)

percy
03-08-2016, 01:54 PM
You need to be born with that flair for retailing ...have it running through your veins

Almost impossible to be picked up by going to Harvard (or any top management school)

Well the online dept certainly have something running through their veins, with online sales up a HUGE 40%.
That's Incredible.

Ghost Monkey
03-08-2016, 01:59 PM
Hard to argue against that assessment. Not many have their finger on the pulse as well as Rod. Still, give Xavier some credit Madcuffy, he's only been in the role a year but seems to be doing a good job so far.

benjitara
03-08-2016, 06:03 PM
I'm not a holder in the stock but boy I love these reports. Rod must be one of the best in the business. Long may it continue. Well done to holders.

Beagle
03-08-2016, 08:04 PM
Stunning announcement today

An economy on fire and Briscoes capitalise on that big time - and on the latest sales data taking share from others

He a guru - that Rod. A man with retail in his blood - no need for a Harvard MBA or that sort of stuff.
Totally agree with you. The man's a real legend of retail.

winner69
10-08-2016, 03:50 PM
Some time ago I read that the most profitable companies are characteristically not the most profit oriented.

The feeling was that great businesses are created by people who love doing business rather than by people who love making money.


That seems to sum up Rod Duke

winner69
19-09-2016, 10:59 AM
He pretty amazing that Rod .....and Briscoes

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/243876.pdf


Rod Duke, Group Managing Director, said: “We are very pleased to finish this first half with strong growth recorded in sales, gross profit and bottom line profit. To post a record first half profit result representing growth in excess of 30%, despite the ongoing competitiveness of the retail environment and the impact on winter-dependent categories with the late start to the colder months, is a great achievement for the team.

jim9358
22-09-2016, 10:12 AM
I want some! :t_up:

Sideshow Bob
16-10-2016, 08:49 PM
Wandering around Rebel in Qtown (Frankton) today, was struck by the number of surf casting rods they had there!

not or the place where I would have thought they sold many? Maybe the lake gets a little more rough than I thought, and maybe the fishermen are particularly optimistic......

Food4Thought
17-10-2016, 02:54 PM
Wandering around Rebel in Qtown (Frankton) today, was struck by the number of surf casting rods they had there!

not or the place where I would have thought they sold many? Maybe the lake gets a little more rough than I thought, and maybe the fishermen are particularly optimistic......

It is amazing how many people in Queenstown travel 2+ hrs to go to Invercargill, the Catlins, Dunedin... to see the amazing ocean. Don't forget those Fiord Fishing cruises. A good central location to those smaller places nearby?

winner69
03-02-2017, 05:42 AM
Normalised npat up 19% for year - another great result for Rod

Q4 sales growth not that high but Rod said taking care of margins was the priority.

No wonder share price up 45% last 52 weeks

He a good guy that Rod.

emearg
05-03-2017, 11:37 AM
Wandering around Rebel in Qtown (Frankton) today, was struck by the number of surf casting rods they had there!

not or the place where I would have thought they sold many? Maybe the lake gets a little more rough than I thought, and maybe the fishermen are particularly optimistic......

I'm guessing surf casting rods aren't big sellers in Bolivia Bob? Are you really there? I bet Rod wouldn't stock them if he ran a Rebel sports shop there. Rods for lakes yes but not for the sea. That said try telling the Bolivian military they don't really need a navy...


But more relevantly, if they weren't selling I suspect they would either drop or signifcantly reduce the line in a given shop. Hanging on to product that doesn't sell isn't how he does business from the looks of it.

emearg
05-03-2017, 11:39 AM
Normalised npat up 19% for year - another great result for Rod

Q4 sales growth not that high but Rod said taking care of margins was the priority.

No wonder share price up 45% last 52 weeks

He a good guy that Rod.

Yes he really knows how to do retail. When was the last time Briscoes group had a bad quarter or year? I do recall their share price dropping to 67 cents(I think) during the GFC. I didn't think it was due to poor performance, just uncertainty. Anyone that bought then will be very happy :)

macduffy
14-03-2017, 11:27 AM
Anoher boring record profit from Briscoes.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BGR/announcements/298240

I hold.

h2so4
14-03-2017, 12:46 PM
Anoher boring record profit from Briscoes.

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BGR/announcements/298240

I hold.

Don't consider it boring at all.
Star performer.

emearg
14-03-2017, 06:01 PM
Don't consider it boring at all.
Star performer.

macduffy was being humorous...many comments in this threads history about how dull it is to hold shares in Briscoes when all it does is report growth in sales and profits quarter after quarter, year after year. If we wanted "exciting" we would own Warehouse shares.

I hold.

bull....
14-03-2017, 06:05 PM
duke da bomb lol makes warehouse managerment and board look second rate

h2so4
14-03-2017, 09:37 PM
macduffy was being humorous...many comments in this threads history about how dull it is to hold shares in Briscoes when all it does is report growth in sales and profits quarter after quarter, year after year. If we wanted "exciting" we would own Warehouse shares.

I hold.

Yes the result was alright I suppose.

Ok then it was boring.

macduffy
15-03-2017, 07:24 AM
Apologies for tongue in cheek comment - but then the description of Briscoes' result as "boring" follows a long tradition on this thread of so describing a series of profit increases from this company!

An interesting comment from Rod Duke on NZRadio Business this morning when he replied to a question about the possibility of expansion nto Australia. Something along the lines of "We're still looking; havn't decided anything; one or the other "brands", or both?" The last point is particularly interesting in that Rebel Sport in Aust is a separate outfit from BGR's Rebel Sport in NZ.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/businessnews/audio/201836643/business-news-for-15-march-2017

percy
15-03-2017, 07:31 AM
Interesting noting online sales have increased 40% and now account for 6% of revenue,ie just under $35mil.

Onion
15-03-2017, 08:00 AM
Yes the result was alright I suppose.

A brilliant example of Kiwi enthusiasm. ;)

h2so4
15-03-2017, 08:15 AM
A brilliant example of Kiwi enthusiasm. ;)

Come to to think about it the result was quite dull actually it was a very depressing result.

Cynic
01-05-2017, 05:27 PM
Thoughts on why the market has turned sour on this one lately?

hardt
01-05-2017, 05:58 PM
Thoughts on why the market has turned sour on this one lately?

The outlook does not look good for the retail sector, the market likes to paint with broad brushes...

Also, first thing to go out of a household budget in an economic downturn are those $100 pans and $200 boots!

JoeGrogan
01-05-2017, 06:28 PM
Yeah HLG is also getting hammered at the moment. Perhaps some buying opportunities on the horizon.

Sideshow Bob
01-05-2017, 07:10 PM
Yeah HLG is also getting hammered at the moment. Perhaps some buying opportunities on the horizon.

downwards trajectory of the dollar not helping?

Cynic
02-05-2017, 07:54 AM
The outlook does not look good for the retail sector, the market likes to paint with broad brushes...

Also, first thing to go out of a household budget in an economic downturn are those $100 pans and $200 boots!

I accept the dollar is moving down, but don't see much else to substantiate a bad outlook for retail. What in the last month has caused an economic downturn to look more likely?

drcjp
02-05-2017, 08:23 AM
Thoughts on why the market has turned sour on this one lately?

IMO, simply overpriced. Necessary correction by market.

Beagle
02-05-2017, 01:43 PM
Thoughts on why the market has turned sour on this one lately?

Retail is currently not flavor of the month. Stock has had a good run up from ~ $3 a year ago and undergoing a correction. No question Rod Duke knows his stuff and this is best of breed but when the tide turns in retail the water level drops everywhere.

Definitely one to watch and most probably worth buying when market sentiment has bottomed out.

macduffy
02-05-2017, 01:51 PM
I agree with Roger on that. RSI is at its lowest level in about four years so the upturn may not be far off.

hardt
02-05-2017, 01:57 PM
I accept the dollar is moving down, but don't see much else to substantiate a bad outlook for retail. What in the last month has caused an economic downturn to look more likely?

BGR is being squeezed by sentiment, not necessarily due to fundamentals of their particular business, Retail as a whole has little to be desired in terms of a moat anymore... NZ is lucky because of the very few stores available to consumers.

household debt has risen to about 170% of nominal disposable income in NZ as well.

Definitely looking to get in once it has bottomed out [ where that will be, no one knows ]

Ogg
02-05-2017, 02:06 PM
BGR is being squeezed by sentiment, not necessarily due to fundamentals of their particular business, Retail as a whole has little to be desired in terms of a moat anymore... NZ is lucky because of the very few stores available to consumers.

household debt has risen to about 170% of nominal disposable income in NZ as well.

Definitely looking to get in once it has bottomed out [ where that will be, no one knows ]

Agreed but the bottom is a long way off.

All retails stocks have been hit hard, both in NZ and AU. Just take a read of yesterdays announcement from ASX:RCG, sums it up pretty well. Along with the Warehouse it's all doom and gloom for retail in 2017.


The board believes that RCG has been caught up in the widespread sell down of retail stocks over the last few months due to a number of factors, including declining consumer confidence, subdued wage growth, concerns surrounding the housing market, increasing interest rates and the perceived impact that the market entry of Amazon may have on the Australian retail landscape.

macduffy
02-05-2017, 02:44 PM
Yes, the market has a bad case of Amazonitis at present where retail stocks are concerned. The good and the bad are both affected but those with good management such as BGR are worth watching for a SP recovery.

winner69
19-05-2017, 03:30 PM
To list on ASX ...pretty soon as well

Must have an acquisition of an aussie retailer in mind I reckon

hardt
19-05-2017, 04:24 PM
The only stocks up for acquisition are the beaten up ones like Adairs, which come to think of it could fit with the Briscoes stores quite well...

SCOTTY
20-05-2017, 09:27 AM
Briscoes is a amazing success story under the leadership of Rod Duke.

Does anyone know what Rod has in mind for his succession plan both for the company leadership and also for his controlling shareholding?

winner69
23-05-2017, 11:40 AM
Rod's speech at ASM worth reading
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/258625.pdf

Nice touch having their top performing Business Manager address shareholders - wonder what she said.

emearg
09-09-2017, 03:54 PM
Another excellent result and not a word from any of you? You peeps hoping for a different result? Declining revenue? Lower profits? Yeah right.

percy
09-09-2017, 04:35 PM
Another excellent result and not a word from any of you? You peeps hoping for a different result? Declining revenue? Lower profits? Yeah right.

I note their on line sales are now 7% of revenue,and growing strongly.

winner69
09-09-2017, 04:56 PM
I note their on line sales are now 7% of revenue,and growing strongly.

Implies online sales up 40% to 45% on same period last year

That implies bricks and mortar on up about 2,5%

Go hand in hand don't they

Cool eh

percy
09-09-2017, 05:09 PM
Implies online sales up 40% to 45% on same period last year

That implies bricks and mortar on up about 2,5%

Go hand in hand don't they

Cool eh

May be a real hot idea to look at who does their ecommerce platform ???

JeremyALD
04-11-2017, 08:54 AM
Anyone else looking at this one to invest in? Had dropped close to 30% off its peak and now looks pretty good value to me.

Strong history of growth, well managed, good dividend and nice confidence from Rod on another strong year in his recent quarterly update (albeit lower YOY growth than normal is expected). Foreward PE of around 12 - definitely something I'm considering as a value play.

winner69
04-11-2017, 09:35 AM
Anyone else looking at this one to invest in? Had dropped close to 30% off its peak and now looks pretty good value to me.

Strong history of growth, well managed, good dividend and nice confidence from Rod on another strong year in his recent quarterly update (albeit lower YOY growth than normal is expected). Foreward PE of around 12 - definitely something I'm considering as a value play.

Rod best retailer in NZ which reflects in BGR long term company performance

Question though - do you see it as a value play just because its 30% of its recent highs?

Share prices driven by sentiment (translated as multiples) and maybe, just maybe, BGP is one of those companies being rerated.

James108
04-11-2017, 09:47 AM
I have held briscoes for a few years now. I see Amazon as an existential threat to Briscoes, more so than any other retailer in NZ, despite Briscoes having a pretty good online platform.

Yet I continue to hold, if you forget about Amazon they appear to be very good value at current prices. Even the KMD attempted aquisition has turned out to be in Briscoes favour.

Baa_Baa
04-11-2017, 10:17 AM
May be a real hot idea to look at who does their ecommerce platform ???

EstarOnline Ltd is an unlisted public company. http://www.estaronline.com/blog/post/18076/briscoes-launch-a-selected-manchester-offer-in-australia,-fair-dinkum!.html

Investor info: https://www.estaronline.com/About_Us/Investor_Information/information/5883

percy
04-11-2017, 10:50 AM
EstarOnline Ltd is an unlisted public company. http://www.estaronline.com/blog/post/18076/briscoes-launch-a-selected-manchester-offer-in-australia,-fair-dinkum!.html

Investor info: https://www.estaronline.com/About_Us/Investor_Information/information/5883

Thank you for the links.
Clever company.
Great clients.


Disc.Am an Estar shareholder.

RTM
04-11-2017, 01:49 PM
Thank you for the links.
Clever company.
Great clients.


Disc.Am an Estar shareholder.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?7342-EstarOnline-Ltd

winner69
02-01-2018, 04:40 PM
Rod on radio this morning said Briscoes had their BEST DECEMBER EVER

Might need to come out ith a profit upgrade

dragonz
19-01-2018, 10:30 AM
4th Quarter Sales due in early Feb. Where did you hear the "Rod" interview winner69?

winner69
19-01-2018, 10:36 AM
4th Quarter Sales due in early Feb. Where did you hear the "Rod" interview winner69?

Probably early morning Newstalk ZB over the break

dragonz
25-01-2018, 09:12 AM
Liquidity is not going to improve anytime soon if Rod Duke continues to buy. Almost $500,000 in Sep/Oct. With the accumulation of almost $60,000,000 in cash I smell a special dividend in the wind. Particularly if the Amazon threat turns out to be a fizzer. Could we be seeing the beginnings of a delisting in the making. Great for currant shareholders

James108
25-01-2018, 10:14 AM
Liquidity is not going to improve anytime soon if Rod Duke continues to buy. Almost $500,000 in Sep/Oct. With the accumulation of almost $60,000,000 in cash I smell a special dividend in the wind. Particularly if the Amazon threat turns out to be a fizzer. Could we be seeing the beginnings of a delisting in the making. Great for currant shareholders

The problem is you will not be able to tell if the Amazon threat is a fizzer for 5+ years, they are not in NZ yet, they may never be, or they could be 1 year from now or 10 years. Regardless, the threat isn't going away soon. I am sure people on here will call Amazons entrance into Australasia a non event in 6 months, despite the long long list of embattled retailers Amazon have left in its wake in the US.

A fun exercise could be to look at the SP performance of US retailers since Amazon began to flourish.

Having said that I still hold, but under no illusions about how deadly Amazon could be to Briscoes.

dragonz
25-01-2018, 10:32 AM
The problem is you will not be able to tell if the Amazon threat is a fizzer for 5+ years, they are not in NZ yet, they may never be, or they could be 1 year from now or 10 years. Regardless, the threat isn't going away soon. I am sure people on here will call Amazons entrance into Australasia a non event in 6 months, despite the long long list of embattled retailers Amazon have left in its wake in the US.

A fun exercise could be to look at the SP performance of US retailers since Amazon began to flourish.

Having said that I still hold, but under no illusions about how deadly Amazon could be to Briscoes.

Yes agree, . Would hate to have to sell this into a bad news day. Though the recent share price decline seems to be more sentiment then fundamentals. Like all retail stocks should be treated with caution

Jaa
25-01-2018, 02:55 PM
The problem is you will not be able to tell if the Amazon threat is a fizzer for 5+ years, they are not in NZ yet, they may never be, or they could be 1 year from now or 10 years. Regardless, the threat isn't going away soon. I am sure people on here will call Amazons entrance into Australasia a non event in 6 months, despite the long long list of embattled retailers Amazon have left in its wake in the US.

A fun exercise could be to look at the SP performance of US retailers since Amazon began to flourish.

Having said that I still hold, but under no illusions about how deadly Amazon could be to Briscoes.

Amazon now collects and guarantees import costs into NZ (refunding you if it is less but doesn't charge you if it is more) for products over $400 incl shipping making the process nice and easy. So they have paid a bit of attention to NZ lately.

dragonz
25-01-2018, 03:29 PM
Amazon now collects and guarantees import costs into NZ (refunding you if it is less but doesn't charge you if it is more) for products over $400 incl shipping making the process nice and easy. So they have paid a bit of attention to NZ lately.

I like the refunding part. I used to shop from Kenneth Cole online but they introduced the collection of import costs with no refunds for under NZ$260-$400 purchases. So usually go Iconic for clothing. Free next day delivery, lots of brands and free delivery to NZ for over $50.

JoeGrogan
01-02-2018, 01:04 PM
Will we see a quarter update tomorrow? keen to see how great December supposedly was.

dragonz
01-02-2018, 06:01 PM
They sold a lot fans thats for sure. A great result could see a special dividend this year with the cash reserves building

JeremyALD
01-02-2018, 06:44 PM
Another year of profitable growth is locked in. At a pe of 12 seems pretty good value to me and i hold alongside hlg as my retail stocks

JoeGrogan
01-02-2018, 10:24 PM
Another year of profitable growth is locked in. At a pe of 12 seems pretty good value to me and i hold alongside hlg as my retail stocks

Yeah with a decent yield too and trading more than a dollar below last years highs, can’t complain with the value here.

JeremyALD
02-02-2018, 10:25 AM
Yeah with a decent yield too and trading more than a dollar below last years highs, can’t complain with the value here.

61m NPAT full year with biggest boxing day sales ever. Good solid result

dragonz
02-02-2018, 10:28 AM
As expected another great result. Sellers very thin on the ground so north of $4 again shortly perhaps

https://www.nzx.com/companies/BGP/announcements

jg8512
02-02-2018, 11:08 AM
and a stunningly quick update. it's for the period to 28 Jan 2018. BGP clearly have some very good systems and finance staff

Beagle
02-02-2018, 11:43 AM
Another year of profitable growth is locked in. At a pe of 12 seems pretty good value to me and i hold alongside hlg as my retail stocks

Current year PE of 12.68 at $3.50. Seems good value considering their stellar growth track record and no arguing Rod Duke's retail experience but a lot of what they sell can be brought online without the need to try it on which is much more a requirement with HLG's clothes. FWIW I think HLG has the better more defensible market position.

JoeGrogan
02-02-2018, 11:47 AM
61m NPAT full year with biggest boxing day sales ever. Good solid result

Very solid indeed, market seems to agree too.

winner69
02-02-2018, 12:09 PM
Yeah with a decent yield too and trading more than a dollar below last years highs, can’t complain with the value here.

Amazing that a company that can perform so consistently well as Briscoes can see its share price fall by 30% in a relatively short time

Hope you were buying big time when it fell back to 320/330

Will be back to 450 before we know it

Filthy
02-02-2018, 12:38 PM
but a lot of what they sell can be brought online without the need to try it on which is much more a requirement with HLG's clothes. FWIW I think HLG has the better more defensible market position.

hmm not convinced about this roger. https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/industries/assets/total-retail-2017.pdf (page 34) ranks clothing as the third(?) highest category for online shopping. plenty of fashion websites i.e. asos, boohoo etc offer sale returns if the products don't fit. HLG have done fantastic this year (don't get me wrong) but it is probably more to do with their current product mix, designs, latest brands etc more than anything else. I wouldn't say they have anymore of a defensible position than briscoes in that both retailers will have fight hard to keep market share in growing competitive environments. impressed both BGR and HLG have strongly grown online sales though, which does help against increased online competition.

anyway - back to the 1/4 result..... seems good for BGP - low single digit growth and plenty to look forward too. perhaps things will be 'okay' for retailers after all? .......at some stage there has to be a consumer revolt against amazon eh!

disc. hold a small BGP parcel (after it was oversold imo), but sadly missed out on the HLG run (having sold out when H&M/Topshop entered NZ ....albeit that risk seems to have disappeared for now! - so well done to holders)




filthy

JoeGrogan
02-02-2018, 12:45 PM
Amazing that a company that can perform so consistently well as Briscoes can see its share price fall by 30% in a relatively short time

Hope you were buying big time when it fell back to 320/330

Will be back to 450 before we know it

Yeah punters must be scared of the lower liquidity.

Haha was able to grab a few parcels in the 330's the past few months should have gotten more - retails not usually my gig though.

Beagle
02-02-2018, 12:51 PM
Sorry I haven't got a link for you but one study I've seen shows despite Amazon having acquired two major clothing retail chains they only have 6% of the apparel market in the U.S. Have a think about this from a practical point of view. A lot of what Briscoe's sells kitchenware, bathroomware can easily be cross shopped across multiple online channels. Clothes on the other hand, I maintain most people like to try them on for fit, fashion, fabric and generally if they look and feel good on your body. Each to their own mate but I for one see no need to diversify my retail portfolio allocation and note HLG's considerably superior dividend yield.

JeremyALD
02-02-2018, 12:59 PM
Current year PE of 12.68 at $3.50. Seems good value considering their stellar growth track record and no arguing Rod Duke's retail experience but a lot of what they sell can be brought online without the need to try it on which is much more a requirement with HLG's clothes. FWIW I think HLG has the better more defensible market position.

I hold twice as many HLG shares as BGR shares beagle but I don't really agree. BGR has a far better track record than HLG in consistently growing profits and has had significant competition in many of the years they have delivered growth. I wouldn't buy appliances and pots online, but would buy clothes online. Big difference is younger people shop at HLG and older people at BGR imo.

In saying this HLG has more room for growth and pays a very good yield. I think both are very good value and imo Amazon is very overplayed in both markets.

The thing that worries me about BGR is the terrible liquidity.

dragonz
02-02-2018, 01:39 PM
I'm not worried about liquidity. I completely agree with your comments accepting that HLG is going to come up against increased competition from offshore retailers. Personally I think its done its dash

Disc. Sold HGL to reinvest into BGP

macduffy
02-02-2018, 02:16 PM
Really? Have you ever been in a Briscoes store a couple of weeks before uni/tertiary classes start a term? All those student flats to equip, only the more expensive pots, pans, sheets, towels etc left for the latecomers!

Filthy
02-02-2018, 02:20 PM
Each to their own mate but I for one see no need to diversify my retail portfolio allocation and note HLG's considerably superior dividend yield.

all good mate. you did well with your low entry point into HLG & for what its worth - I personally do like to try my clothes on before I buy them.... the fiancee however, is the opposite and loves shopping for her clothes online (and she is waaaaay more trendy than me!).


liquidity is not too bad J-ALD. I can think of a few other decent stocks that are worse i.e. SPN, SEK, ABA lol.



filthy

Beagle
02-02-2018, 02:59 PM
I hold twice as many HLG shares as BGR shares beagle but I don't really agree. BGR has a far better track record than HLG in consistently growing profits and has had significant competition in many of the years they have delivered growth. I wouldn't buy appliances and pots online, but would buy clothes online. Big difference is younger people shop at HLG and older people at BGR imo.

In saying this HLG has more room for growth and pays a very good yield. I think both are very good value and imo Amazon is very overplayed in both markets.

The thing that worries me about BGR is the terrible liquidity.

I respect your point of view mate and your point about consistency of growth in earnings with BGR is well made.
That said BGR hasn't really faced a downunder Amazon before so with cheaper shipping rates ex Australia it'll be interesting to see how they go in the future. Perhaps they'll establish warehouse facilities here in N.Z. for even cheaper shipping in the future ?

FWIW just before Christmas Mrs Beagle bought a small microwave oven online through Kmart's website and a new set of sheets for $109 in total, delivered. No need to try either on before she bought them and both would be considerably cheaper than buying at a Briscoe store. Yesterday we visited Rebel sports to look at their exercycle range which was pathetic, out of date compared to specialist other fitness stores we visited later in the day and most surprisingly the complete absence of shop assistant interest in serving us was shocking and the prices for old technology out of date designs were more than double what other shops wanted. A quick look on trade me would have you a better machine for less than half the price...just saying.

From memory BGR sales were up about 3% in the period just before Christmas whereas HLG are steaming along at about 17%. Really looking forward to HLG's profit guidance update. Couldn't agree more about the lack of liquidity in BGR shares, a real issue in itself for people that prefer to hold liquid stocks.

JeremyALD
02-02-2018, 03:10 PM
I respect your point of view mate and your point about consistency of growth in earnings with BGR is well made.
That said BGR hasn't really faced a downunder Amazon before so with cheaper shipping rates ex Australia it'll be interesting to see how they go in the future.

FWIW just before Christmas Mrs Beagle bought a small microwave oven online through Kmart's website and a new set of sheets for $109 in total, delivered. No need to try either on before she bought them and both would be considerably cheaper than buying at a Briscoe store. Yesterday we visited Rebel sports to look at their exercycle range which was pathetic, out of date compared to specialist other fitness stores we visited later in the day and most surprisingly the complete absence of shop assistant interest in serving us was shocking and the prices for old technology out of date designs were more than double what other shops wanted. A quick look on trade me would have you a better machine for less than half the price...just saying.

From memory BGR sales were up about 3% in the period just before Christmas whereas HLG are steaming along at about 17%. Really looking forward to HLG's profit guidance update.

I agree about their exercise range. It's pretty terrible.

Beagle
02-02-2018, 03:14 PM
I agree about their exercise range. It's pretty terrible.

Mrs Beagle commented and I am quoting her "this looks like equipment you'd find in a second hand shop" Maybe even the staff are embarrassed by their product offer hence the complete disinterest in customer service ? http://www.fitness.co.nz/
80% of their sales are online he told me.

Filthy
02-02-2018, 03:28 PM
From memory BGR sales were up about 3% in the period just before Christmas whereas HLG are steaming along at about 17%.

yeah hold on though - 17% up on the year prior, which was (well?) down on the one prior to that from memory?

fashion can sometimes be a fickle business eh?

a more consistent low single digit growth in a more diversified retailer might suit some investors




anyway, time for a beer!



filthy

JeremyALD
02-02-2018, 03:54 PM
yeah hold on though - 17% up on the year prior, which was (well?) down on the one prior to that from memory?

fashion can sometimes be a fickle business eh?

a more consistent low single digit growth in a more diversified retailer might suit some investors




anyway, time for a beer!



filthy

No it's off the back of a pretty strong first half. However the year before that was pretty bad. Yes time for a beer:)

Beagle
02-02-2018, 03:55 PM
yeah hold on though - 17% up on the year prior, which was (well?) down on the one prior to that from memory?

fashion can sometimes be a fickle business eh?

a more consistent low single digit growth in a more diversified retailer might suit some investors

anyway, time for a beer!

filthy

Nice try mate but it probably won't surprise you that I know the company pretty well. Sales last year were 6.93% above 2016 sales...that's what makes this years 17% increase so special, it on top of last years 7% :) https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/online-annual-report/annual-report-2017/13

percy
02-02-2018, 04:34 PM
On line sales rose more than 30%.
Looks as though www.estaronline.com have "done it again" for Briscoes.

dragonz
02-02-2018, 07:29 PM
Nice try mate but it probably won't surprise you that I know the company pretty well. Sales last year were 6.93% above 2016 sales...that's what makes this years 17% increase so special, it on top of last years 7% :) https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/online-annual-report/annual-report-2017/13

Revenue was was up 17% but earnings was still around the 2015 mark. Increased revenue with stagnant earnings is a sign of increasing competition and revenue growth at the expense of profit margins. Cash reserves are dwindling also. Its going to be an uphill battle for HGL to continue to build sales volumes without compromising profitability.

On the positive side ASB margins has them as a lower risk then BGP (though liquidity could be a reason) and the share price is well supported. Great dividends though even if there is a slight downgrade.

I feel a delisting in BGP's future. Dividend upgrade and plenty of room for capital growth

SCOTTY
02-02-2018, 08:09 PM
On line sales rose more than 30%.
Looks as though www.estaronline.com have "done it again" for Briscoes.

Percy. You’re wasting your time promoting www.estaronline.com. As you and I know it is a very successful unlisted public company but completely ignored except for its clients: ie Briscoes, Rebel Sports, Living and Giving, David Jones, Country Road, Freedom, Bed Bath and Beyond, Witchery, Swanndri, Smith’s City........................just to name a few ��

percy
02-02-2018, 08:12 PM
Percy. You’re wasting your time promoting www.estaronline.com. As you and I know it is a very successful unlisted public company but completely ignored except for its clients: ie Briscoes, Rebel Sports, Living and Giving, David Jones, Country Road, Freedom, Bed Bath and Beyond, Witchery, Swanndri, Smith’s City........................just to name a few ��

Loved the.....................just to name a few..

Filthy
02-02-2018, 09:02 PM
https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/online-annual-report/annual-report-2017/13

ahhh yes, it appears my memory is still living in 2014!



filthy

JeremyALD
02-02-2018, 09:41 PM
Revenue was was up 17% but earnings was still around the 2015 mark. Increased revenue with stagnant earnings is a sign of increasing competition and revenue growth at the expense of profit margins. Cash reserves are dwindling also. Its going to be an uphill battle for HGL to continue to build sales volumes without compromising profitability.

On the positive side ASB margins has them as a lower risk then BGP (though liquidity could be a reason) and the share price is well supported. Great dividends though even if there is a slight downgrade.

I feel a delisting in BGP's future. Dividend upgrade and plenty of room for capital growth

Well that again is not particularly accurate. They are projecting a 50% increase in profit for the first half driven by significantly improved margin AND sales. Now whether or not that is sustainable into future years is another question but HLG has undoubtedly had an amazing half year in an extremely challenging environment. Given poor historical performance in Australia they also have room for growth in the future.

Anyway as stated I believe both shares are good value. HLG is the more risky of the two at the current SP imo but has more upside.

Beagle
03-02-2018, 08:54 AM
Good debate. HLG due for a market update and forecast next week. Lets see how the numbers look then pick it up again from there. I think a few people might get a big surprise with how robust things are.

dragonz
05-02-2018, 06:34 PM
BGP one of two stocks up today

see weed
29-03-2018, 01:18 PM
BGP deposited $1,193.75c into my account. The statement on my account says......LMS O/A BRISC BRISCOE GROU................$1,193.17c. I had 26,155 shares. At 11.5c div = $3007.83c. Does this mean I was taxed $1,814.66c on $3007.83c?

Filthy
29-03-2018, 01:26 PM
my divi came through okay mate. same transaction description (& no issues at all with it)....

McGinty
29-03-2018, 02:20 PM
BGP deposited $1,193.75c into my account. The statement on my account says......LMS O/A BRISC BRISCOE GROU................$1,193.17c. I had 26,155 shares. At 11.5c div = $3007.83c. Does this mean I was taxed $1,814.66c on $3007.83c?

That doesn't seem right See weed.

I own BGP shares under myself and a company and received:

Personal - 67% of gross dividend (Net Div less 5% RWT)
Company - 72% of gross dividend (Net Div)

I would check online with the Share registry

dragonz
29-03-2018, 03:28 PM
no sign of my divi yet. should I be worried?

macduffy
29-03-2018, 03:51 PM
no sign of my divi yet. should I be worried?

Have you checked your email since then ? My advice from the registry was timed at 4.21pm. Seems to be in order.

winner69
29-03-2018, 04:00 PM
BGP deposited $1,193.75c into my account. The statement on my account says......LMS O/A BRISC BRISCOE GROU................$1,193.17c. I had 26,155 shares. At 11.5c div = $3007.83c. Does this mean I was taxed $1,814.66c on $3007.83c?

On 26155 shares you should have got $2798.91

Sure you have this many shares - you have been paid out 11155 shares .....did you buy 15000 after the record date or something? That 15000 is a nice exact round number eh

dragonz
29-03-2018, 04:11 PM
Have you checked your email since then ? My advice from the registry was timed at 4.21pm. Seems to be in order.

Oh just checked on the share registry and I had the wrong suffix number listed. No idea how this happened. i wonder if i have an account that I've forgotten about :laugh::confused:

see weed
29-03-2018, 11:08 PM
On 26155 shares you should have got $2798.91

Sure you have this many shares - you have been paid out 11155 shares .....did you buy 15000 after the record date or something? That 15000 is a nice exact round number eh

This is a good one to figure out over the long weekend. Bought 6000 on 19/3/18, then bought 6000 on 20/3/18, then bought 14,155 on 21/3/18 and then sold them all on ex div day Friday 23/3/18. Record date was Monday 26/3/18. The div was 11.5c, but only received $1,193.75c payed into the account on 29/3/18.

winner69
30-03-2018, 07:29 AM
This is a good one to figure out over the long weekend. Bought 6000 on 19/3/18, then bought 6000 on 20/3/18, then bought 14,155 on 21/3/18 and then sold them all on ex div day Friday 23/3/18. Record date was Monday 26/3/18. The div was 11.5c, but only received $1,193.75c payed into the account on 29/3/18.

Hope you work it out mate

Does seem odd that you have been 'shortchanged' by exactly 15,000 shares. Maybe some of the sales you mentioned you made on the 23rd went through early .....before the cut off.

Interested to know what happened

JeremyALD
30-03-2018, 08:35 AM
This is a good one to figure out over the long weekend. Bought 6000 on 19/3/18, then bought 6000 on 20/3/18, then bought 14,155 on 21/3/18 and then sold them all on ex div day Friday 23/3/18. Record date was Monday 26/3/18. The div was 11.5c, but only received $1,193.75c payed into the account on 29/3/18.

Very loyal shareholder lol

peat
30-03-2018, 10:53 AM
Very loyal shareholder lol
yeh with such short term trading around the ex date its inevitable the benefits get misallocated. Have to claim them through your broker I would guess.

see weed
30-03-2018, 01:24 PM
Very loyal shareholder lol

Thank you. Have been very loyal to ten companies this month including BGP and am expecting 60k plus in divs from these comps. You can count on me pushing price up before div., which is good for anyone who wants to get out without the div. and get a good price. And then pushing price down after div for anyone who wants a bargain for long term investment. Am doing a good service for long term holders;).

percy
30-03-2018, 01:44 PM
Thank you. Have been very loyal to ten companies this month including BGP and am expecting 60k plus in divs from these comps. You can count on me pushing price up before div., which is good for anyone who wants to get out without the div. and get a good price. And then pushing price down after div for anyone who wants a bargain for long term investment. Am doing a good service for long term holders;).

Who does your tax return.?

see weed
30-03-2018, 02:03 PM
Who does your tax return.?

I do all the figures and calcs. and my accountant checks and works out all the imp. credits.

winner69
30-03-2018, 03:30 PM
I do all the figures and calcs. and my accountant checks and works out all the imp. credits.

Sussed why you shortchanged on divie yet