SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/warriors/300024434/sky-tv-opens-up-free-access-to-sporting-saturday-warriors-game-is-on-us?cid=app-android

Great promotion from sky. Just need to get it out there.

I'm not a rugby fan but I watched a bit of the game on channel 54.

They had fake crowd noises added in. Thought they did a a good job and it sounded alright.

They also did a lot of different camera angles to reduce the amount of shots showing the crowd.

Overall it seemed like a normal rugby game to me.

[mistaTea]

I'm not a rugby fan but I watched a bit of the game on channel 54.

They had fake crowd noises added in. Thought they did a a good job and it sounded alright.

They also did a lot of different camera angles to reduce the amount of shots showing the crowd.

Overall it seemed like a normal rugby game to me.
Agreed. I watched the match and I think the crowd noises Foxtel have added in are great.

You can’t beat the actual live crowd experience as it is great to get shots of the fans in the stands etc.

But given that is not possible, the audio that Foxtel have added made the home viewing as ‘normal’ as possible, given the circumstances.

[Yoda]

When i applied for KMD Share offer, they had an on line app form with my amount all ready allocated . This one just has a generic app form where i fill out my own numbers, correct? I.e. do my own maths :) Just wondering if there is a personalised online form that i should be logged onto .....
any help appreciated

[mistaTea]

When i applied for KMD Share offer, they had an on line app form with my amount all ready allocated . This one just has a generic app form where i fill out my own numbers, correct? I.e. do my own maths :) Just wondering if there is a personalised online form that i should be logged onto .....
any help appreciated

Incorrect. This web application requires you to enter in your CSN number. Your CSN number is then validated and the system informs you as to what your maximum entitlement is.

[Yoda]

Awesome ,thanks. I was a bit unsure . Thanks for your help.

[Baa_Baa]

It was good to see sky put on the first live game for a couple of months, albeit nfl isn’t my go to sport. The streaming was excellent quality which I’d come to expect from sky sport. The canned Stadium audience imo was weird and awkward. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something good for sky, they certainly need it to. Nice to have a sense of normality. And the warriors won!

[RupertBear]

Incorrect. This web application requires you to enter in your CSN number. Your CSN number is then validated and the system informs you as to what your maximum entitlement is.

thanks for that, I was wondering the same thing

[Yoda]

Looks like i am a chosen one :eek2:
thanks mistaTea
all i need to do now is raid the piggy bank, and hit up some mates .....
by the way, you need to just copy the full amount allocated first and then enter, after which ,it will say if you can have your 20. % more. Its a 2 part process on the form .

[Dlownz]

http://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/warriors/300024434/sky-tv-opens-up-free-access-to-sporting-saturday-warriors-game-is-on-us?cid=app-android

Great promotion from sky. Just need to get it out there.


It was good to see sky put on the first live game for a couple of months, albeit nfl isn’t my go to sport. The streaming was excellent quality which I’d come to expect from sky sport. The canned Stadium audience imo was weird and awkward. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something good for sky, they certainly need it to. Nice to have a sense of normality. And the warriors won!

I think sports rugby and nrl in particular have to put that canned noise in for a reason. imagine the swearing going on during the game lol 😂
Its to drown out the players.

[winner69]

It was good to see sky put on the first live game for a couple of months, albeit nfl isn’t my go to sport. The streaming was excellent quality which I’d come to expect from sky sport. The canned Stadium audience imo was weird and awkward. Will be interesting to see if this turns into something good for sky, they certainly need it to. Nice to have a sense of normality. And the warriors won!

cant ne normality .... Warriors won

[blackcap]

I think sports rugby and nrl in particular have to put that canned noise in for a reason. imagine the swearing going on during the game lol ��
Its to drown out the players.

That is a very good point. I was of the opinion that the contrived noise was stupid, and the timing is a bit funny, however had forgotten that the ref is miked and the when we played rugby some of the noises really do need to stay on the field and not be heard by young impressionable minds. So like you say definitely lol, and yes its a good thing we do not hear the players ad infinitum. And well done the Warriors, when is the last time they restricted another team to 0?

[Ogg]

NRL is back.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12336114 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12336114)

[flyer]

Never mind the NRL, the best live event on TV this weekend is on CNN. America in chaos.

[Ogg]

Just filled out my entitlement. I did the full 120% for a total of 509,400 shares.

12c seems like a good deal to me.

Comcast paid 17x Ebitda in 2018 for Sky UK.

Sky NZ currently trading at 2x Ebitda.

I'd imagine Mediaworks (TV3 + Bravo) is for sale for even less.

Will SkyTV and Mediaworks merge?

NZD/USD sitting near historic lows, so will a multinational media conglomerate take advantage and get a 2 for 1 special?

Nice research report from AUT summing up the Media landscape.

https://www.aut.ac.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0010/329770/JMAD-2019-Report.pdf


The Spinoff reported that in 2015, “a very serious offer of over NZ$400m was made to buy MediaWorks from Sky TV, and if the two companies had merged it “would have created a TV powerhouse of unparalleled strength”

As the commercial broadcasters experienced financial difficulties, the public broadcasting sector was facing its biggest restructure in decades.

[mistaTea]

J
Comcast paid 17x Ebitda in 2018 for Sky UK.

Sky NZ currently trading at 2x Ebitda.



I don't think you can compare the EBITDA multiples of the two companies (as much as I would like to!).

SKY TV UK is a totally different company. They are a full blown telco, broadcaster and even have a newspaper. Plus they are able to reach the entire EU (half a billion people).

Sky TV NZ is just a broadcaster. That is going to change, and I am optimistic about the revenue diversification - but it is yet to be seen how successful it is.

When Sky was going to merge with Vodafone the value ascribed to Sky was based on an EBITDA of 6.8 from memory. So, if EBITDA wittles down to $100M while they are transitioning, then perhaps a market cap of $680M (~40c/share) would be the comparison point.

One would expect EBITDA to increase again over time, as well as the required multiple for any takeover as Sky begins to realise some success.

[winner69]

Never mind the NRL, the best live event on TV this weekend is on CNN. America in chaos.

One good reason to have Sky eh

[Stranger_Danger]

I don't think you can compare the EBITDA multiples of the two companies (as much as I would like to!).

SKY TV UK is a totally different company. They are a full blown telco, broadcaster and even have a newspaper. Plus they are able to reach the entire EU (half a billion people).

Sky TV NZ is just a broadcaster. That is going to change, and I am optimistic about the revenue diversification - but it is yet to be seen how successful it is.

When Sky was going to merge with Vodafone the value ascribed to Sky was based on an EBITDA of 6.8 from memory. So, if EBITDA wittles down to $100M while they are transitioning, then perhaps a market cap of $680M (~40c/share) would be the comparison point.

One would expect EBITDA to increase again over time, as well as the required multiple for any takeover as Sky begins to realise some success.

Agree with all of that, plus, 2018 is not 2020.

Content distribution is increasingly about global scale. If you don't have that, then maybe UK is a large enough market, for a while. But NZ?

[Ogg]

On my confirmation email of the entitlement it was numbered in the 700s.

So I'm assuming ~700 people have filled in the form so far out of ~6,487.

Obviously there is going to be a shortfall. Likely at least $15m I would say.

Retail investors can't afford 34c a share, especially when the stock is trading so close to the application price.

The shorters and manipulators have played this well. Once they've loaded up on cheap underwrittern shares at 12, you'll start to see "buy" recommendations come out from institutions. Wouldn't be surprised if a take over came at 50 in a few months, which is still below the 52 week adjusted high.

[RTM]

One good reason to have Sky eh

Seem to be a few ways to watch CNN without SKY.

[Stranger_Danger]

Seem to be a few ways to watch CNN without SKY.

Yep, I've had access to all the news channels without Sky while things have been happening in the USA over recent days.

Interestingly, even at zero cost, watching any of those commercial channels arguably makes you less informed, especially the ones pushing opinions and political agendas.

The place to go for coverage was social media, with rioters and passers by providing constantly updated footage from every angle. The vast majority of it never made it to TV news - between glancing at TV news, and watching the constant content appearing on my social media feeds, at times, it was like watching two totally different things.

It is a little bit like the day with the nutter in Christchurch. If you recall, the TV hosts were playing down what was happening under orders and even quite late in the day, it was possible to completely misread the scale and number of deaths from the TV coverage provided. Meanwhile on the internet, people had seen from the shooter himself exactly what had happened.

TV News has largely been disintermediated by people power and the internet, so it is difficult to see the value proposition in a paid aggregator of the disintermediated.

[blackcap]

Seem to be a few ways to watch CNN without SKY.

The real question is why would you want to watch CNN?

[mistaTea]

The real question is why would you want to watch CNN?

Yeah I tuned into CNN for a bit yesterday. The reporting was just awful. Clearly biased with a left wing political agenda.

As bad as watching Fox, but on the other end of the political spectrum.

[mistaTea]

Yep, I've had access to all the news channels without Sky while things have been happening in the USA over recent days.

Interestingly, even at zero cost, watching any of those commercial channels arguably makes you less informed, especially the ones pushing opinions and political agendas.

The place to go for coverage was social media, with rioters and passers by providing constantly updated footage from every angle. The vast majority of it never made it to TV news - between glancing at TV news, and watching the constant content appearing on my social media feeds, at times, it was like watching two totally different things.

It is a little bit like the day with the nutter in Christchurch. If you recall, the TV hosts were playing down what was happening under orders and even quite late in the day, it was possible to completely misread the scale and number of deaths from the TV coverage provided. Meanwhile on the internet, people had seen from the shooter himself exactly what had happened.

TV News has largely been disintermediated by people power and the internet, so it is difficult to see the value proposition in a paid aggregator of the disintermediated.

I keep reading this “who would pay an aggregator when you can obtain the content for free by thieving or using ‘alternative’ sources” spiel.

Yet demand for Sky TV content has never been higher with over 1M subs now.

People do like convenience and are prepared to pay a reasonable fee for it. Sky TV aggregating a wide range of content (of which international news is just one part) is convenient.

CNN and Fox are rubbish, biased news channels. But there is BBC and Al Jazeera too which give reporting that isn’t based on US political bias.

Social media has benefits but I would not want to use that as my primary source of information.

[airedale]

On my confirmation email of the entitlement it was numbered in the 700s.

So I'm assuming ~700 people have filled in the form so far out of ~6,487.

Obviously there is going to be a shortfall. Likely at least $15m I would say.

Retail investors can't afford 34c a share, especially when the stock is trading so close to the application price.

The shorters and manipulators have played this well. Once they've loaded up on cheap underwrittern shares at 12, you'll start to see "buy" recommendations come out from institutions. Wouldn't be surprised if a take over came at 50 in a few months, which is still below the 52 week adjusted high.

My application number is 691 posted at 1.51 pm Saturday. There is still a week for applications to be processed. There may well be a shortfall.

[airedale]

Hi Mista T, I agree that Fox News is absolute rubbish. I have just watched the doco on the downfall of Roger Ailes.....talk about the lunatic fringe with an unhealthy sexual agenda. Ailes is dead and gone now but I think that Sky should have dropped that channel long ago after Rupert Murdoch pulled his support for Ailes.

[winner69]

Hi Mista T, I agree that Fox News is absolute rubbish. I have just watched the doco on the downfall of Roger Ailes.....talk about the lunatic fringe with an unhealthy sexual agenda. Ailes is dead and gone now but I think that Sky should have dropped that channel long ago after Rupert Murdoch pulled his support for Ailes.

RT interesting

[Ogg]

My application number is 691 posted at 1.51 pm Saturday. There is still a week for applications to be processed. There may well be a shortfall.

We are almost exactly 24 hours apart. So it's a fact that 70 people filled in the form in that period. The preceding 4 days was done at an average of 175. Obliviously because of a spike on Wednesday as soon as the offer became available.

So assuming 100 per day over the next week gets it to 1400. Then maybe triple the amount on the last two days. You're looking at 2000 absolute max. Postal application would likely be less than 100.

Although you can subscribe for 120% of your entitlement some will elect to do less than 100%, so the average will probably work out to be 90%.

Total needed to be raised is $38m. I'm thinking it will be short by $20m, about 50%.

Strange how they capped it at 120%. Looking at the Kathmandu retail placement it said you could elect for as many shares as you wanted, can someone confirm that?

[mistaTea]

Strange how they capped it at 120%.

Not so strange given this whole deal has been structured to benefit their investment banker mates.

Fair enough a CR was needed in the end to put the bond issue to bed and ensure their was enough $ to make the investments they need to. And it is not their fault that Covid came along and pushed the SP to crazy lows.

But this deal is going to overwhelmingly reward new institutional investors and management, while the small retail investors who can't fully participate are going to get nailed.

I am still happy to own my share of the business, and do not mind providing additional funds. But even if I did mind, what choice would I have had?

If I did not participate, and remained on an average cost of $1.06 per share I would never have any hope of breaking even. In that scenario Sky would have to do exceedingly well and perfectly execute their business plans and then some to build to a market cap of ~1.8B just for me to break even.

So there really was no other choice anyway. Given there will be a number of people who do not participate, all I can hope is that I am able to get the full 120% I have applied for so that I can truly hold my current position.

Even if you just take 100% of your entitlement, you will still actually be diluted a little given the 'extra new shares' being issued as part of the Placement.

[RRR]

I will be applying for 120% (12K) - ASB sec (nominee service) will forward my application on my behalf this week

[Marilyn Munroe]

An item from the ABC about Rupert Murdoch which covers the state of pay television over the ditch.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-05-29/news-corp-going-digital-is-the-latest-sign-of-murdoch-struggles/12299350

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS. I am mulling launching a takeover bid for SKT. I propose to set up a US based special purpose entity which will finance the bid with bonds subscribed by a US money centre bank. This bank will then stuff them through the discount window at the Fed. If SKT falters and the bonds go into default the Fed will not seek redemption of the bonds and will eat the losses as a recovery would threaten the stability of the financial system.

All hail the Bernanke put.

[Ogg]

'extra new shares' being issued as part of the Placement.

Sky had plenty of liquidity to pay the $9m in costs associated with the placement. Furthermore, 83% of existing institutional holders participated in the placement. If say, 50% of retail holders also participated, total funds raised could have been ~$100m. A nice little top up of equity without "new investors".

There was no reason to issue those $9m shares, EXCEPT to entice rouge manipulators into "playing the game". Maybe it's a good thing that there are onboard, as over the coming months they will pump the stock and encourage other clients into taking a position in Sky. There will be more coverage and volume on the stock. Maybe finally it will 'turn the corner'.

The placement was tipped to happen for well over 12 months - it wasn't news. It was the timing that was terrible after Covid-19, and so the placement price was heavily discounted. My guess is that "new investors" will pick up $25m total in the placement. Then we'll see of few SSH after the short positioned are closed out and longs are built up between 15-20c. The "good news" will start to flow and the stock will tighten. Should then rise to 30c and the new investors will be sitting on $50m profits. The cherry on top will be a take over. Not bad, not bad at all.

[mistaTea]

The "good news" will start to flow and the stock will tighten. Should then rise to 30c and the new investors will be sitting on $50m profits. The cherry on top will be a take over. Not bad, not bad at all.

Maybe there is hope for me yet!

[RTM]

The real question is why would you want to watch CNN?

I agree. Fox much better......fair and balanced.

[waikare]

I am still happy to own my share of the business, and do not mind providing additional funds. But even if I did mind, what choice would I have had?

If I did not participate, and remained on an average cost of $1.06 per share I would never have any hope of breaking even. In that scenario Sky would have to do exceedingly well and perfectly execute their business plans and then some to build to a market cap of ~1.8B just for me to break even.

So there really was no other choice anyway. Given there will be a number of people who do not participate, all I can hope is that I am able to get the full 120% I have applied for so that I can truly hold my current position.

Even if you just take 100% of your entitlement, you will still actually be diluted a little given the 'extra new shares' being issued as part of the Placement.

I agree, not many options for me, I brought in March 2003 @ $5.76, my average is $2.61 per share...………… I applied for the 120% on offer.

[Ogg]

I brought in March 2003


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz4PXOqg4Js

[mistaTea]

I agree, not many options for me, I brought in March 2003 @ $5.76, my average is $2.61 per share...………… I applied for the 120% on offer.

You would have received some hefty dividends over the 15 years between 2003 - 2018.

Probably at least $2.61 per share worth.

[mistaTea]

My Spark Sport app just got an upgrade.

They have added a ‘linear channel page’.

Just goes to show that even in a SVOD world, there still is a place for linear viewing. Having someone else curate the content for you can be great for when you just want to relax and ‘surf the channels’.

[Dlownz]

Just got a email from sky. The new neon app launching soon with a merge of lightbox. Also be able to rent latest release movies.

[mistaTea]

New NEON set to launch on 07 July.

Existing NEON app is getting a significant platform upgrade and Lightbox will be retired.

New NEON will be available on more platforms (including Apple TV) and it will be possible to rent box office movies.

It will allow users to set up individual profiles and therefore customise content.

Spark customers will be able to subscribe to the service for $9.99 per month. Not sure if it will stay at $13.95 per month for everyone else.

I received an email from Lightbox today, and there is a FAQ section on their website.

[Dlownz]

Yip. Be interesting to see how many lightbox customers take up the cheaper price although now not free

[mistaTea]

Yip. Be interesting to see how many lightbox customers take up the cheaper price although now not free

My expectation is that a lot will.

The Spark broadband offer is strong. They are effectively saying that for the same price you would pay for a HD Netflix plan, if you take Spark broadband you can get Netflix AND the new NEON.

The amount of content available to consumers between those two subscriptions is huge. Covers all the premium Hulu, HBO, Showtime, FX content that Sky bring to the table plus the Netflix Originals.

That is what Sky is going to be up against when they release Sky Broadband. A Sky Broadband offer could be compelling in its own right - but consumers are going to be spoiled for choice that's for sure.

[mistaTea]

Here is an article on Stuff about it: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121694180/no-price-rise-for-neon-subscribers-when-sky-tv-adds-lightbox-content-in-july

And of course our mate Chris Keall at The Herald can't help himself. Has to find a way to frame it as a bad news story...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12336554

[Dlownz]

Here is an article stuff about it: https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121694180/no-price-rise-for-neon-subscribers-when-sky-tv-adds-lightbox-content-in-july

And of course our mate Chris Keall at The herald can't help himself. Has to find a way to frame it as a bad news story...

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12336554

I like the ending.
"Wealth manager Jarden has predicted that Spark will also exit sport. Spark CEO Jolie Hodson earlier told the Herald that was not correct but also declined to say if her company would bid for Sanzaar rights next time around, saying it was too early to make a comment.".

Ummmm So what 5 years away and its completely changed now. No more super rugby sanzaar appears dead in the water.
They have the cricket and Premier league. Might be able to get nrl sooner.

[mistaTea]

I like the ending.
"Wealth manager Jarden has predicted that Spark will also exit sport. Spark CEO Jolie Hodson earlier told the Herald that was not correct but also declined to say if her company would bid for Sanzaar rights next time around, saying it was too early to make a comment.".

Ummmm So what 5 years away and its completely changed now. No more super rugby sanzaar appears dead in the water.
They have the cricket and Premier league. Might be able to get nrl sooner.

That Jarden quote is an old one from before COVID.

I don’t think Spark are anywhere near throwing in the towel for sport.

[Dlownz]

Wow nz rugby didn't take up any rights. Big loss.

[blackcap]

Wow nz rugby didn't take up any rights. Big loss.

Yes but I don't think NZ rugby has any money left to take up the rights. So probably could not even if they wanted to.

[mistaTea]

From their latest announcement at 09:24...

"Details of the transactions or other events requiring disclosure: the issuance of 998,629,091 fully paid ordinary shares in Sky on 2 June 2020 at an issue price of NZ$0.12 per share, issued under the placement and institutional component of the fully underwritten accelerated entitlement offer announced to NZX on 21 May 2020, resulting in the dilution of Sky’s relevant interest in shares held by New Zealand Rugby Union Incorporated and RugbyPass Investors, LLC, as disclosed in the substantial product holder notice dated 17 February 2020."

So both NZR and RP did not take up their rights? Ouch.

[mistaTea]

Yes but I don't think NZ rugby has any money left to take up the rights. So probably could not even if they wanted to.

Man I really thought they would beg borrow or steal to come up with all (or at least some) of the money to avoid dilution to oblivion.

I guess if there is no takeover in the coming months, they will just dump their shares now as soon as they are allowed to. Taking equity as part of the rights offer should have been great for them, but it really hasn't worked out that way.

[k14]

Man I really thought they would beg borrow or steal to come up with all (or at least some) of the money to avoid dilution to oblivion.

I guess if there is no takeover in the coming months, they will just dump their shares now as soon as they are allowed to. Taking equity as part of the rights offer should have been great for them, but it really hasn't worked out that way.
Wouldn't they hold the stake longer term if their cash flow holds up in the next 12 months and see if longer term that Sky can return to paying dividends?

[moimoi]

Possibly net sellers now. Seems little point holding 1.5% with further dilution from the retail component coming....

May as well sell out and raise the funds for the potentially impending legal action action against SKY withholding content rights payments... :-) :-)

[mistaTea]

Wouldn't they hold the stake longer term if their cash flow holds up in the next 12 months and see if longer term that Sky can return to paying dividends?

if Sky resume dividends, they will be able to pay out maybe 1c per share initially. They would need 110 of those to get their money back.

I can't know what they will or won't do. But Sky's intrinsic value as represented by a $/share value is now lower than when they got their shares (since their are so many more shares outstanding).

Using completely made up numbers, let's just say that Sky TV now has an intrinsic value of 40c per share.

And let's say that the company does well executing their strategy, and the Market values the company at 45c per share.

When NZR are allowed to sell their shares, the most logical thing to do in this scenario might be to dump their shares and grab what they can. However, that would still represent a big loss to them.

The only 'comfort' might be that they did not actually party with any of their own cash to acquire the shares. They just took less cash for the 5 years of SANZAAR.

As I say, I don't know how they will play it from here. But it wouldn't surprise me if they have now just 'given up' on the stock and will sell it for whatever they can when the time comes to take the cash.

[Akane]

Will the nz rugby relationship with Sky turn sour after this? What are the ramifications if it did?

[airedale]

If NZR now feel aggrieved or less favourably disposed to Sky, that might make them favourably disposed to Spark when sports events are next on the broadcasting agenda.

[Cadalac123]

The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks

[mistaTea]

If NZR now feel aggrieved or less favourably disposed to Sky, that might make them favourably disposed to Spark when sports events are next on the broadcasting agenda.

Entirely possible.

[mistaTea]

The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks

Should have done it last year.

Could have raised closer to $400M and not diluted existing shareholders who can’t participate by nearly as much.

[blackcap]

The more I think about this the more stupid this capital raising looks

The timing is terrible. Management knew this was coming a long way off, yet waited till,well now. Just diabolical in my humble opinion. Why wait when you have no other option but to go heavy dilute. A year ago they could have got the same amount of money for the fraction of the dilution. Everyone would be happy. Now existing shareholders are pissed. Not many would be able to participate now when a while back it may not have been a problem. Existing shareholders have been shafted at the expense of new shareholders.

[mistaTea]

Significantly lower trading volume today.

Ogg’s prediction on trading patterns and price action very accurate so far.

[Ogg]

Significantly lower trading volume today.

Ogg’s prediction on trading patterns and price action very accurate so far.

Not rocket science. Following similar trading patters as other companies who have done pro rata entitlement placements at step discounts recently, KMD ASX:SXL etc

SXL couldn't even explain their recent rise: https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200528/pdf/44j5gr2lxrm1lm.pdf

Very confidence Sky will be back above 20 within 2-3 weeks after retail entitlement closes.

[Cadalac123]

Short positions closing will give a little bump up too . Sad because this company has some potential stabilising tailwinds . I wouldn’t say it’s going to have explosive growth but the FCF potential is there

[Ogg]

ACC doubling down. Thought they would have bailed on this stock long ago.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354117/323818.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354117/323818.pdf)

[mistaTea]

ACC doubling down. Thought they would have bailed on this stock long ago.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354117/323818.pdf (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354117/323818.pdf)


Yeah looks to me that they have acquired ~17M more shares over what can be accounted for by simply taking Last Disclosure + (Last Disclosure * 2.83 * 1.2).

[allfromacell]

This will surely create some extra buzz around the NZ Rugby competition. Sky sport subs on the up I would imagine. They only lost 8% during lockdown Carter will help them gain 10% back :)

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/sport/2020/06/super-rugby-aotearoa-dan-carter-to-make-shock-comeback-with-blues.html?fbclid=IwAR2S7gzIlJiO5nZaCVyJi3fWqE2Y2z-_HXiG0K25wdLrqaxtXtC_oO421ac

[k14]

This will surely create some extra buzz around the NZ Rugby competition. Sky sport subs on the up I would imagine. They only lost 8% during lockdown Carter will help them gain 10% back :)

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/sport/2020/06/super-rugby-aotearoa-dan-carter-to-make-shock-comeback-with-blues.html?fbclid=IwAR2S7gzIlJiO5nZaCVyJi3fWqE2Y2z-_HXiG0K25wdLrqaxtXtC_oO421ac
Sky Sport Now is $25 a month for 6 months (if I sign up before 10th June) and I can cancel at any time. Seems a pretty good option, with motogp and F1 starting up again next month I think I will sign up. I'd say revenue will be definitely on the up.

[Jay]

F1 will be on Spark Sport k14, not sky

[k14]

F1 will be on Spark Sport k14, not sky
Dammit, good point... forgot about that! Oh well, Rugby, Golf and Motogp will still be sufficient for me! F1 can be watched via alternate means.

[winner69]

Black Crane took up their quota plus a bit more

Wonder if this is playing out as they intended

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354224/323925.pdf

[whatsup]

I see the Vanguard Group has a 5% holding in SKY, if that is not an endorsement for SKY I don't know what is !

[Ogg]

Black Crane took up their quota plus a bit more

Wonder if this is playing out as they intended



The answer is in their name... Black Crane Opportunities Fund

[airedale]

Add Perpetual to that list.

[Ogg]

I see the Vanguard Group has a 5% holding in SKY, if that is not an endorsement for SKY I don't know what is !

This is big news. Similar to the KMD Norges Bank announcement.

Only a few more days until the retail entitlement closes. Once the supply from this is extinguished, the only option will be to buy on market.

Still poor retail holders selling to raise cash at the last minute and shorters still playing with the stock looking for a quick buck. Volume should drop and stabilize soon.

Look for more SSH over the coming weeks as all the new stock finds a new long term home. Squeeze will start and the stock price will then slowly grind higher. Everyone will look back and be shocked at how cheap the stock was back now.

[Baa_Baa]

Black Crane took up their quota plus a bit more

Wonder if this is playing out as they intended

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354224/323925.pdf

Interesting eh, there's literally one billion more shares on issue since their last disclosure, they probably didn't have a choice, or the choice was take-up or be diluted into oblivion.

[GR8DAY]

Gone for 120% on 3 separate accounts. .... fingers and toes XD!

[Quantitative Easing]

Has anyone done the credit transfer to computershare. I can't seem to find Computershare Investor Services Limited on my banks company search. I can manually enter the details... Just want to double check before sending money through..

[mistaTea]

The answer is in their name... Black Crane Opportunities Fund

By my reckoning they have purchased a total of 89,496,785 shares for a total consideration of $15,903,083.85 (which works out to be 18c/share).

Not bad at all, and well played.

To 'move the needle' for these guys, I imagine they see the potential for a 3 bagger maybe (which actually happens to be close enough to the 55c 12 month estimate Fat Prophets have given, for what it's worth).

[Ogg]

Discovery Inc rumored to be buying Mediaworks (TV3)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12337467 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12337467)

Will they make a play for Sky or pull the Discovery Channel?

[mistaTea]

Discovery Inc rumored to be buying Mediaworks (TV3)

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12337467 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12337467)

Will they make a play for Sky or pull the Discovery Channel?

Very interesting. For a large international player entering the small NZ market - one would be excused for thinking that it would make much more sense to grab MediaWorks and Sky TV. It would put the likes of Discovery in a very strong position, plus would be beneficial to the struggling media sector.

Let's wait and see. If that is the end goal, perhaps they are waiting to fully wrap up MediaWorks before making the Sky TV play. If they already owned Mediaworks, it would put them in the drivers seat to take over Sky (i.e. it might discourage competing bids).

I wonder what they will pay to buy MediaWorks.

[Dlownz]

If I get what I applied for I'll be happy

[ba9]

Applied for the rights offer via sharesies today. As 2pm today, was the final cut off time.

[Leftfield]

By my reckoning they have purchased a total of 89,496,785 shares for a total consideration of $15,903,083.85 (which works out to be 18c/share).....
To 'move the needle' for these guys, I imagine they see the potential for a 3 bagger maybe (which actually happens to be close enough to the 55c 12 month estimate Fat Prophets have given, for what it's worth).

Been reading this thread for some time and have added SKT to my portfolio this week. Their business model has issues, however all this could change v quickly with either a takeover or strategic alliance. Little downside risk and considerable upside potential IMHO. Thanks all for your contributions.

[Dlownz]

Yes at these prices very little downside

[winner69]

Been reading this thread for some time and have added SKT to my portfolio this week. Their business model has issues, however all this could change v quickly with either a takeover or strategic alliance. Little downside risk and considerable upside potential IMHO. Thanks all for your contributions.


Me too leftie

A bit like as they say over on MET thread HEADS YOU WIN, TAILS YOU DON’T LOSE (or even win a bit)

[Ogg]

I bought more on market today on the back of the Mediaworks rumor and Vanguard SSH.

Sitting on a huge position now. Well into 6 figures, tad under 15 average. No turning back.

[Leftfield]

Thanks Ogg and Winner and all.......

Love that quote by Harpo Marx... "Any club that would have me as a member isn't worth joining!!"

But this will be different!.

Looks like I'm joining a very esteemed club!!

[ba9]

Not sure why some people that have written off SKY completely. Assuming, fibre connections make up around half of internet connections in NZ. Traditional satellite sky distribution model still has a long way to yet. (2018, fibre connections stood at 598,000. stats.govt.nz) Sky just needs to focus on getting their App onto as many devices as possible. Their android app doesn't necessarily work on most devices. I personally believe they should release their own device, similar to the Amazon fire stick. This is an amazing device that sells for $20 USD when on sale. Fully programmed when sent to a customer. All the customer does is plug it into a HDMI port. They just need to keep it simple.

[Ogg]

Sale of Mediaworks still on going it seems

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/ (https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/)

"multiple parties considered as strong contenders and in live talks"

[mistaTea]

Sale of Mediaworks still on going it seems

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/ (https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/)

"multiple parties considered as strong contenders and in live talks"

I wonder how much they want for it.

Merging it with Sky would make a good business.

This could be achieved if Sky purchased it. I wonder if their banking syndicate would lend $$ for an acquisition like this. Or is that just pie in the sky given they just had to tap shareholders to pay their bonds back?

Alternatively a big International player could purchase both companies and merge them.

[mistaTea]

https://briefingpapers.co.nz/circling-vultures-why-mediaworks-tv-is-really-in-trouble/

Looks like Oaktree rebuffed a $400M offer from Sky back in 2015.

$400M would look very tasty right now given how things have deteriorated in the industry since 2015.

Revenues down to ~130M now. EBITDA is likely $30M maybe? They would be lucky to get 3 times that in this climate given their revenue comes from advertising which has been suffering for a while?

So maybe $90M max if they are lucky? Less most likely?

I suppose if Mr Market recently said Sky was only worth $85M (absurd!) then that wouldn’t bode well for what a company like Mediaworks could expect to sell for?

[Cadalac123]

Great thing about SKT is the forecast for earnings is transparent . Might burn down in a fire but there’s a glimmer of hope .

[Dlownz]

Great thing about SKT is the forecast for earnings is transparent . Might burn down in a fire but there’s a glimmer of hope .
Earnings are transparent although I think next years guidence is a little too light. Think they will do better than that. But at these prices what are we complaining about.

[Ogg]

This could be achieved if Sky purchased it.

Zero chance Sky is buying Mediaworks.

In fact, it's a joke to even suggested a New Zealand or Australian media company will end up acquiring Mediaworks. Nine Entertainment has $300m debt on the books already. Seven West even worst at nearly $600m of debt! Everyone is piss broke and the banks are leading zilch. It's a fight for survival for these companies as it is.

The global trend in media is for more vertical integration and direct to consumer business model. The only logical buyer is a large American media conglomerate. Not only are these companies colossal in size, but they can borrow at 30 year rates at less than 2% interest. Factor in the low NZD and it's a no brainer.

Mediaworks are likely holding out for a higher price. It will likely be a 3 horse race between Discovery, Universal (Comcast) and ViacomCBS.

Who ever the buyer ends up being, no doubt they are taking a good look at Sky at the moment. With a low market cap and a dominate position as the only pay TV operator in NZ, Sky will be a great addition to strengthen a media portfolio in NZ, if not, there's a chance a competitor could purchase them and take the upper hand.

It's an interesting time in the New Zealand media landscape. Big changes are happening. If an offer does come for Sky, we're talking a minimum of 30c a share starting point, with a likely bidding war pushing the price up even further. The recent equity raise does provide more leverage in a buy out, as it avoids the possibility of a firesale, AKA the dreaded Smith City scenario.

Mediaworks will likely be sold for at least $100m, or roughly 1X revenue. The price could be a lot higher with so much interests.

"Mr Market", is currently offering ~$275m NZ 'pesos' for Sky TV. I'm more than happy to take that offer today. At that price, it doesn't bother me weather a take over comes or not.

[mistaTea]

Zero chance Sky is buying Mediaworks.

In fact, it's a joke to even suggested a New Zealand or Australian media company will end up acquiring Mediaworks.

You are almost certainly correct that the most likely outcome is a big, deep-pocketed US player taking advantage of the low prices for media companies in NZ coupled with the favourable exchange rate etc.

I imagine that Sky (and other Aussie players) have expressed interest though and kicked the tyres. If Mediaworks will still be able to get ~$100M though, it would seem incredible for a company like Sky (who has just needed to do a capital raise to fix its Balance Sheet) to make a purchase of that scale. Just not realistic.

A merged Sky-Mediaworks that entered the Broadband and Mobile market would be a great company though, and would be fantastic for consumers.

So here is hoping it all works out.

NBC (Comcast) should buy them both - they already have Sky UK. They could introduce Sky Q right away to the satellite base: a much better Set Top Box that even integrates with Netflix now.

If the 'going rate' in this climate is just 1x Revenue, then Sky would ultimately go for ~40c/share.

[Drew95]

So I own both Xero shares and Sky shares. And I have some cash to invest. I am trying to decide which will be the better investment in the next 12 months. From the most recent financial statements I have taken the following. Apple and oranges I know. Growth vs. Decline. But on a fruit for fruit basis I am inclined to go for Sky?? Thoughts??

SKY TV (before cap raise)
Revenue $787 Million
Op Profit 104 Million
Finance Costs $14 Million
Op Profit before Tax $100 Million
Assets $889 Million
Liabilities $497 Million
OE $390 Million
Price Per Share $0.16 cents

XERO

Revenue $718 Million
Op Profit 33 Million
Finance Costs $23 Million
Profit before Tax 10 Million
Assets 1153 Million
Liabilities 731 Million
OE 422 Million
Price Per Share $87.00

[Waltzing]

Well if your numbers are accurate then prehaps you need to look at potential increase decrease in subcribers. Zero has a world wide market and is the KFC of business platforms. Most users of SME software want simplicity so they can continue to whatch there fav streams. sky has a limited market and declining subs? Zero's share price is based on Global Growth and i should never have sold out many years ago when i realised they needed a CAP Raise and a US investor put in the millions required 2 weeks later...

However looking out long term 5G will change the way everything is delivered and consumed. But it takes over a decade for software to lose it installed base as new technology over takes a platform and browser based software is at the limits of it design window for sure and i dont think compiled javascript is ever going to cut it with 5G.g

5G will allow a complete new transaction business frame to exist where distributed transaction frames move across the networks. This means if your looking out 10 years and AIR PORT run ways and PORTS will still be the same infrastructure. Neither Sky TV or software will be the same as they are today.

[Ogg]

So I own both Xero shares and Sky shares.

Both are good. It all comes down to price.

If you're only looking to hold for 12 months, then Sky is the better investment.

If you're holding for the next 10 years, you'd be better off with Xero.

It's not that Sky won't be around in 10 years, in fact Sky is likely to be earning more money in 10 years than today (all be it modestly). It's more that it's less likely something interesting in Xero will happen in the short term , ie an "US investor putting in millions" and more likely it will experience another plateau period like it did between 2014-2018.

Stock investing is about taking opportunities and balancing that between your objectives.

[mistaTea]

Will be interesting to see how the trading volumes are from today.

Tomorrow is the last day for application and payment, so if a big chunk of the recent selling was existing shareholders raising funds to participate then that portion of trading will be finished now.

[sb9]

Thanks Ogg and Winner and all.......

Love that quote by Harpo Marx... "Any club that would have me as a member isn't worth joining!!"

But this will be different!.

Looks like I'm joining a very esteemed club!!

+1 into that club...:p

[Quantitative Easing]

Arguments for/against sky tv takeover

For:

Low valuation.
Big boys on board at cheap price and can advertise the company globally.
New SSH at lower entry price. Views of NZ Rugby and Rugbypass do not matter anymore.
Low NZD.
Rugby rights renewed.
Debt cleared.
On path to subscriber growth.

Against:

Getting regulatory clearance from commerce commission.

[Ogg]

Getting regulatory clearance from commerce commission.

The media landscape has changed significantly in the last few years.

5 years ago, there was some doubt that Google and Facebook have a monopoly over adverting, now it's no longer the case.

The NZME/Stuff merger is an example of the changing views regulator now have.

For media to survive in NZ, merger and acquisitions have to happen.

[mistaTea]

All I know is there has been an immediate bump in SP now that the existing shareholders aren’t dumping anymore.

All as predicted by Ogg. Mate if you live in Auckland we might need to start calling you the Wolf of Queen Street.

Let’s hope you are right about the potential takeover! Come on NBC, show me the money!!

[Ogg]

All I know is there has been an immediate bump in SP now that the existing shareholders aren’t dumping anymore.

All as predicted by Ogg. Mate if you live in Auckland we might need to start calling you the Wolf of Queen Street.

Let’s hope you are right about the potential takeover! Come on NBC, show me the money!!

NBC better be quick. The valuation on depressed assets don't last long.

Kathmandu now @ $1b enterprise valuation and is almost a 3 bagger from entitlement price.

In my opinion Sky and Kathmandu are equally rated. Both have great advantages and disadvantages. Both facing challenges. Both should be valued the same.

[Quantitative Easing]

And in terms of offer price i would say 49 to 55 cents/share is enough for share holder approval. My opinion anyway lol.

[mistaTea]

And in terms of offer price i would say 49 to 55 cents/share is enough for share holder approval. My opinion anyway lol.

I would love for that to happen, but I am not sure Sky would get $800M + unless there was one hell of a bidding war between NBC and another big player.

My personal opinion is that an offer of 40c would prob get a deal over the line with shareholders in the absence of competing bids.

[RGR367]

+1 into that club...:p

Never been in a closing Club before but this time I'll just be joining to pull up my downward ave price of it. As Covid-19 presenter would say, it's a heck of a lot to pay just to flatten it a bit.
Hope it's really different this time. :mad ;:

[mistaTea]

Drop in volume, SP up ~9% so far.

Should settle somewhere between 20-25c soon.

[winner69]

Drop in volume, SP up ~9% so far.

Should settle somewhere between 20-25c soon.

What a stock SKT is

Go you beauty

[GR8DAY]

What day do we get confirmation of allocation(s)?? Thanks in advance.

[mistaTea]

What day do we get confirmation of allocation(s)?? Thanks in advance.

Applications and payment due tomorrow 9 June.

Confirmation of allocation is on 12 June.

Settlement is on 16 June.

[blackcap]

The CFO chucking in $25k of loose change at 12 cents. Maybe he spots a bargain. (or a quick $10k arbitrage gain)

Even bigger balls is Sophie Maloney (Chief legal person) with a $108k investment.

But one step further is director Michael Darcey purchasing 1.5m shares on market at $0.1528 per share.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354317

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354316

[sb9]

The CFO chucking in $25k of loose change at 12 cents. Maybe he spots a bargain. (or a quick $10k arbitrage gain)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354317

Also, the head of Legal & People chucking in bit more than CFO a total of $109k...

[mistaTea]

COVID Level 1 from midnight tonight.

Should see live crowds in the new Super Rugby competition this weekend...

[Quantitative Easing]

Pretty dodgy how the management joined in now from virtually no shares before. Guess it means that there is only one way up for this stock.

[mistaTea]

Pretty dodgy how the management joined in now from virtually no shares before. Guess it means that there is only one way up for this stock.

Disgusting that the likes of Blair (who owned 0 shares beforehand) is allowed to come in and buy @12c.

There was no need for it.

[blackcap]

Disgusting that the likes of Blair (who owned 0 shares beforehand) is allowed to come in and buy @12c.

There was no need for it.

Yep, disgusting is a pretty apt description. Would have been more equitable had existing shareholders been offered these.

I will be raising this issue with the NZSA and hopefully they will say something about it.

[mistaTea]

Yep, disgusting is a pretty apt description. Would have been more equitable had existing shareholders been offered these.

Yeah and I am not pissed off with Blair or any of the others who buy in @12c per share as part of the placement when they had no skin in the game before.

They have been presented with a ‘sweet deal’ and naturally they will take advantage of the opportunity.

It is the Board of Directors who signed this off that need a slapping. How on earth did they think that existing shareholders would look at this with anything other than disgust?

[Quantitative Easing]

I hope that as directors and senior managers they realise that their number one goal is to maximise shareholder wealth. Not to sell the shareholders down the river.

[blackcap]

I hope that as directors and senior managers they realise that their number one goal is to maximise shareholder wealth. Not to sell the shareholders down the river.

Hi QE, the problem is under the Companies Act in NZ that is not their number one goal. Number one duty of care is to the Company itself. Directors duties towards shareholders are actually very minimal.

[mistaTea]

I hope that as directors and senior managers they realise that their number one goal is to maximise shareholder wealth. Not to sell the shareholders down the river.

I guarantee you John Fellet would have never done something like this.

People like to point to the mistakes made under his stewardship, but the man definitely had his shareholders front of mind.

[Quantitative Easing]

I always wonder where the share price would be today if John Fellet was in charge at the helm. Sky didn't have a vision beyond satellite TV under him, so it would definitely be lower than what it was when he retired. But he was your classic frugal businessman that tried to bean count and maximise profits. I'm sure dividends would still be paid out under him and he would never have done a rights issue when the share price was so low to begin with.

[jonu]

I always wonder where the share price would be today if John Fellet was in charge at the helm. Sky didn't have a vision beyond satellite TV under him, so it would definitely be lower than what it was when he retired. But he was your classic frugal businessman that tried to bean count and maximise profits. I'm sure dividends would still be paid out under him and he would never have done a rights issue when the share price was so low to begin with.

You can't be sure about that at all.

Mr Fellet's stewardship over huge shareholder wealth destruction stands. When Sky's answer to thinking about forward tech was bringing Derek Handley onto the Board I lost all confidence in him. Sadly Handley still haunts the Board.

[mistaTea]

I always wonder where the share price would be today if John Fellet was in charge at the helm. Sky didn't have a vision beyond satellite TV under him, so it would definitely be lower than what it was when he retired. But he was your classic frugal businessman that tried to bean count and maximise profits. I'm sure dividends would still be paid out under him and he would never have done a rights issue when the share price was so low to begin with.

I think one has to separate perceived errors in strategic judgement with how he behaved towards shareholders.

In my view, if you looked through his record, you would have to draw the conclusion that he was definitely trying to maximise shareholder earnings/wealth throughout. He would not, for example, pay over the odds for content no matter how great it was. There were times in the past where he would have to reluctantly pass on some content because to 'win' the content would be too destructive to shareholder wealth. As a quick aside, more often than not when a party would pay over the odds to outbid John on some content, they very seldom did it a second time when the rights were up for renewal again. Reason being that they were not able to make any money off the content and would not be able to sustain another loss moving forward.

John definitely made mistakes around strategy with regards to streaming. He did not want to cannibalise his high margin satellite base as he wanted to maximise earnings for shareholders. So in his way he was looking out for shareholders, however it was a strategic mistake in my view. It is entirely possibly to have your shareholders best interests at heart and still cock up.

As I have outlined previously, his last gift to shareholders was supposed to be the Vodafone merger. He saw the writing on the wall when Netflix entered the market, and Vodafone-Sky would have been a terrific business. It was blocked by the regulators, and John quickly formed the view that he was no longer the best person to lead the company. It was not in shareholders best interests.

And this is key. He was getting paid $2M a year and The Board were not asking for him to resign. He could have stayed on if he just wanted to line his own pockets.

John Fellet was not perfect and made mistakes for sure (show me a leader anywhere who hasn't). You can acknowledge his errors but still give credit where credit is due though.

Ah Christ, I think I just became a FELLET FANBOY!

[Quantitative Easing]

I think one has to separate perceived errors in strategic judgement with how he behaved towards shareholders.

In my view, if you looked through his record, you would have to draw the conclusion that he was definitely trying to maximise shareholder earnings/wealth throughout. He would not, for example, pay over the odds for content no matter how great it was. There were times in the past where he would have to reluctantly pass on some content because to 'win' the content would be too destructive to shareholder wealth. As a quick aside, more often than not when a party would pay over the odds to outbid John on some content, they very seldom did it a second time when the rights were up for renewal again. Reason being that they were not able to make any money off the content and would not be able to sustain another loss moving forward.

John definitely made mistakes around strategy with regards to streaming. He did not want to cannibalise his high margin satellite base as he wanted to maximise earnings for shareholders. So in his way he was looking out for shareholders, however it was a strategic mistake in my view. It is entirely possibly to have your shareholders best interests at heart and still cock up.

As I have outlined previously, his last gift to shareholders was supposed to be the Vodafone merger. He saw the writing on the wall when Netflix entered the market, and Vodafone-Sky would have been a terrific business. It was blocked by the regulators, and John quickly formed the view that he was no longer the best person to lead the company. It was not in shareholders best interests.

And this is key. He was getting paid $2M a year and The Board were not asking for him to resign. He could have stayed on if he just wanted to line his own pockets.

John Fellet was not perfect and made mistakes for sure (show me a leader anywhere who hasn't). You can acknowledge his errors but still give credit where credit is due though.

Ah Christ, I think I just became a FELLET FANBOY!

Good post mistaTea. I had admiration for Fellet too. Once upon a time i considered him to be the best CEOs in the NZX, alongside Geoff Babbage and Russel Creedy.

[mistaTea]

Just saw an ad on The Herald for TV One - tonight at 20:30 they are airing the first episode of 'Bodyguard'.

Bodyguard as a Netflix Original starring Richard Madden (Rob Stark in GoT).

TVNZ have done a deal with Netflix to broadcast their content?

[k14]

Just saw an ad on The Herald for TV One - tonight at 20:30 they are airing the first episode of 'Bodyguard'.

Bodyguard as a Netflix Original starring Richard Madden (Rob Stark in GoT).

TVNZ have done a deal with Netflix to broadcast their content?
Pretty sure it is produced by BBC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodyguard_(British_TV_series) Netflix look to have the rights (same as TV1).

Great series BTW.

[mistaTea]

Pretty sure it is produced by BBC https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bodyguard_(British_TV_series) Netflix look to have the rights (same as TV1).

Great series BTW.

Ah ok, I am just confused because when I search the title on Netflix, the big read 'N' appears on the thumbnail which I thought was only used to indicate a Netflix Original.

[mikeybycrikey]

Ah ok, I am just confused because when I search the title on Netflix, the big read 'N' appears on the thumbnail which I thought was only used to indicate a Netflix Original.

Yeah, Netflix Original seems to mean "something that Netflix made", but it also means "something they have exclusive rights to". I was always confused about The Good Place which was made by NBC but described as a Netflix Original.

[Ogg]

Disgusting that the likes of Blair (who owned 0 shares beforehand) is allowed to come in and buy @12c.

There was no need for it.

Agreed.

Very poor taste. Management should know better. Very sensitive time for current shareholders.

I don't have a problem with employees buying shares but the method of which they are obtained is important.

They should have waited until after the results of the retail entitlement.

The shares should be voluntary escrowed for 24 months.

[Ogg]

NBR reporting that NZ Rugby stake in Sky originally worth $20 m is now worth $3 m. Ouch. Not taking up any of their rights. Ouch again. Must feel like they have been at the wrong end of a king hit.

Brutal for sure.

However, shares were only a sweetener. They screwed over Sky by playing them off with Spark. So a little bit of karma.

If they hold the shares until the end of the 6 year SANZAAR deal then I'm sure they will be worth a lot more than $3m.

[stoploss]

NBR reporting that NZ Rugby stake in Sky originally worth $20 m is now worth $3 m. Ouch. Not taking up any of their rights. Ouch again. Must feel like they have been at the wrong end of a king hit.
Auckland City council were down $200 mio on not taking up their share of the recent AIA issue .... hate to think what it would be now.

[Ogg]

Auckland City council were down $200 mio on not taking up their share of the recent AIA issue .... hate to think what it would be now.

Cash is King.

And people still question why Warren Buffet holds 140B of it.

[sb9]

Could well hit 18c today with Retail entitlement closing today and soon 20c after that.

[macduffy]

Good news for shareholders! With rugby starting up this weekend I've decided to renew my Sky Sport sub.

:)

Disc: Not holding.

[Balance]

Could well hit 18c today with Retail entitlement closing today and soon 20c after that.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354320/324059.pdf

Not really interested in Sky after seeing the way that retail shareholders were screwed over but

(brought to my notice by one poster here) a director prepared to buy on market 1.5m shares at close to 16c certainly gets my attention!

[Quantitative Easing]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/354320/324059.pdf

Not really interested in Sky after seeing the way that retail shareholders were screwed over but

(brought to my notice by one poster here) a director prepared to buy on market 1.5m shares at close to 16c certainly gets my attention!

Still cheap. He knows that this will end up being a multibagger for him.

[blackcap]

Good news for shareholders! With rugby starting up this weekend I've decided to renew my Sky Sport sub.

:)

Disc: Not holding.

well done that man! Thank you, I am sure you are not the only one. I have the last 5 years or so not watched super rugby. But with Dan Carter making a comeback and general dearth of sports, I might tune in this weekend!!

[Balance]

Still cheap. He knows that this will end up being a multibagger for him.

18.1c 😳

Freaking heck - hope everyone who’s eligible have put in their application for their 12c shares!

[biker]

18.1c 😳

Freaking heck - hope everyone who’s eligible have put in their application for their 12c shares!

19.3 now. Waiting to see how many of the xtra 20% are available.

[Quantitative Easing]

Did anyone receive receipt of payment? Nervous now in case the payment hadn't gone through for some reason. I did via internet banking.

[Dlownz]

I did mine. But holding out hope I get the 20% extra

[mistaTea]

Did anyone receive receipt of payment? Nervous now in case the payment hadn't gone through for some reason. I did via internet banking.

No I did not receive a payment receipt from Computershare.

We will find out what allocation we get on the 12th.

Provided you put your CSN number and name in the payment reference details there will be no problem for Computershare matching your payment to your application.

[mistaTea]

Infratil doing a capital raise too.

They can put the money towards a bid for Sky!!

[RGR367]

Infratil doing a capital raise too.

They can put the money towards a bid for Sky!!

Perish that thought :p But heck, i'm liking it.

[freebee]

I got an email last night from computershare saying they hadnt received my payment yet. Payment went through on Monday so hopefully just a timing thing and my 120% is all locked and loaded now.

[Ogg]

Infratil doing a capital raise too.

They can put the money towards a bid for Sky!!

You might be right there

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/354332/324067.pdf


...to fund growth investments across Infratil’s existing portfolio companies and take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions...

[mistaTea]

You might be right there

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/354332/324067.pdf

Yep, opening bid of $600M should get people’s attention.

[winner69]

C’mon guys ....don’t be stupid with those outrageous dreams

You getting me excited ....unnecessary

[mistaTea]

C’mon guys ....don’t be stupid with those outrageous dreams

You getting me excited ....unnecessary

LOL. Important for everyone to keep calm and carry on.

Absolutely cannot bank on a takeover offer coming through.

But Christ the company is selling for so cheap right now it’s hard not to speculate that it could be on the cards.

[Balance]

LOL. Important for everyone to keep calm and carry on.

Absolutely cannot bank on a takeover offer coming through.

But Christ the company is selling for so cheap right now it’s hard not to speculate that it could be on the cards.

I can see merger as a first step.

[Quantitative Easing]

Yep, opening bid of $600M should get people’s attention.

What sky needs is a buyer with deep pockets so that sky can put Spark back in its place. Spark is the definition of crony capitalism. They made a big scene over the sky/vodafone merger and the commerce commission caved in to Spark's demands and blocked the merger. Then Spark enters the sports market and started behaving like how sky/voda would have behaved if merged...

[mistaTea]

What sky needs is a buyer with deep pockets so that sky can put Spark back in its place. Spark is the definition of crony capitalism. They made a big scene over the sky/vodafone merger and the commerce commission caved in to Spark's demands and blocked the merger. Then Spark enters the sports market and started behaving like how sky/voda would have behaved if merged...

Yes all true.

But IF infratil do decide that it makes sense now to have another crack at effectively merging Vodafone and sky...

Now is the time. Sky still has ~$50M of raised capital above the $100M to pay back the bonds.

A big chunk of that will need to be spent on getting ready for Sky Broadband in 2021.

Well, if IFT buy sky now that money can be used for other stuff since they already have Vodafone.

And surely there is no way Spark could lobby effectively now and block the deal.

[Quantitative Easing]

Yes all true.

But IF infratil do decide that it makes sense now to have another crack at effectively merging Vodafone and sky...

Now is the time. Sky still has ~$50M of raised capital above the $100M to pay back the bonds.

A big chunk of that will need to be spent on getting ready for Sky Broadband in 2021.

Well, if IFT buy sky now that money can be used for other stuff since they already have Vodafone.

True. I hope Goldman Sachs are actively pumping the company to NBC and other potential American buyers at the same time so that we get a multitude of competing bids.

[Ogg]

The good news is that I don't think the post entitlement pump has started yet. Recent gains are more likely part of the broader market recovery of Covid-19.

Ideally if the share price can reach low to mid 20's by next month, then a take over comes, it should provide a better platform. Throw in a bidding war and the stock could very much reach 50c without being too stretched valuation wise. At that price it's about ~$850m valuation, this is very top end though, and absolute bull case.

Most likely nothing happens and stock trades in the mid 20's until further news.

[k14]

Is anyone buying on market at the moment? Very tempting for me.

[winner69]

Is anyone buying on market at the moment? Very tempting for me.


Go on ....buy now ...never be cheaper

Delay means you miss out on the cheap ones ...or even worse if a takeover offer comes tomorrow and you miss out altogether.

[Ogg]

I looked again at the Infratil announcement just now.

- The placement size is roughly the same size as Sky TV market cap.

- They own 50% of Vodafone.

- Commerce commission should give the "green light" now that Spark has entered the Sports TV market.

- UBS is doing the book build. Which is the same investment bank involved with Sky.

- Wording in announcement: "...take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions."

- Wording in announcement: "...work underway to reset strategy and establish the new target operating model and market position across key customer segments"

mmm, is a take over of Sky by Infratil happening soon? Nah, this is all just a coincident...;)

[blackcap]

I looked again at the Infratil announcement just now.

- The placement size is roughly the same size as Sky TV market cap.

- They own 50% of Vodafone.

- Commerce commission should give the "green light" now that Spark has entered the Sports TV market.

- UBS is doing the book build. Which is the same investment bank involved with Sky.

- Wording in announcement: "...take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of current market conditions."

- Wording in announcement: "...work underway to reset strategy and establish the new target operating model and market position across key customer segments"

mmm, is a take over of Sky by Infratil happening soon? Nah, this is all just a coincident...;)

If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....

[Ogg]

If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....

That's less than ASB intrinsic valuation.

I think what's happening is that Infratil is trying to act quickly and take over Sky before the American Giants (Comcast, Discovery) have a chance to mobilize.

The "quick vs the big."

[huxley]

SKY TV is an infrastructure asset now?

[mistaTea]

If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....

I think 30c would be the absolute minimum an offer would need to be to get past the board.

And that would only MAYBE succeed if IFT were the only party bidding for the business.

30c is only ~NZ$500M. That is only about US$330M. Peanuts for NBC and other big US companies.

[Ogg]

SKY TV is an infrastructure asset now?

Brings in ~$700m revenue every year. Call it what you want.

[Quantitative Easing]

If they get in early they could probably pick SKY up for 25-30 cents....

Pre-covid Sky was trading at market cap equivalent~38 cents. So i would say a 30-40% premium on that would be required, which is about 49-54 cents/share.

[mistaTea]

That's less than ASB intrinsic valuation.

I think what's happening is that Infratil is trying to act quickly and take over Sky before the American Giants (Comcast, Discovery) have a chance to mobilize.

The "quick vs the big."

Yeah and if they want to wrap it up quick it would need to be a strong offer - a no brainer for shareholders to accept.

If they low ball it then it could backfire.

[blackcap]

Pre-covid Sky was trading at market cap equivalent~38 cents. So i would say a 30-40% premium on that would be required, which is about 49-54 cents/share.

Well if the offer is anywhere near 49 cents, if one comes, I will be taking it balls and all and saying thank you.

MT fair enough on the no brainer. But plenty of weak holders on the register now so after this rights issue its a heck of a lot easier for a potential purchaser.

[mistaTea]

Well if the offer is anywhere near 49 cents, if one comes, I will be taking it balls and all and saying thank you.

Oh yes, I would sh1t myself if it went to 50c.

I’d be in there - balls deep.

[mistaTea]

Infratil could be going halves on buying Sky with Brookfield like they did with Vodafone.

In which case the ~$500M capital raise would more than cover their 50% share.

Also would make it easier to merge Vodafone and sky to make more operating savings etc if IFT and Brookfield own the same percentages of both companies?

[Ogg]

Infratil could be going halves on buying Sky with Brookfield like they did with Vodafone.



Bingo!

Take over imminent.

dyor

[Quantitative Easing]

Oh yes, I would sh1t myself if it went to 50c.

I’d be in there - balls deep.

A penny stock in the ASX called "splitit" has the same marketcap as Sky TV. The only difference is that revenue for Splitit is US$1.65 million. That's right million not billion...So 50 cents/share is still good value for the 'right' deep pocketed buyer. The only issue is sentiment is so bearish for the media industry.

[winner69]

When is the big pay day then?

You guys told the sharesies guys all this ....that’ll give share price a good lift

[Cadalac123]

A penny stock in the ASX called "splitit" has the same marketcap as Sky TV. The only difference is that revenue for Splitit is US$1.65 million. That's right million not billion...So 50 cents/share is still good value for the 'right' deep pocketed buyer. The only issue is sentiment is so bearish for the media industry.

yeah BNPL stocks have all been pumped up especially since the tencent investment in AfterPay and even before that. I wouldn't really compare valuations, they are insanely stretched over the ASX.

The ASX is a strange one.

[Quantitative Easing]

yeah BNPL stocks have all been pumped up especially since the tencent investment in AfterPay and even before that. I wouldn't really compare valuations, they are insanely stretched over the ASX.

The ASX is a strange one.

Yeah but i suppose ASX has a lot more choice like Afterpay, Zip, Appen etc..Good for swing traders.

[Ogg]

When is the big pay day then?



Could be as early as tomorrow when Infratil placement is secured.

Could be after the retail entitlement is finished.

Could be after end of financial year.

Could be never.

[k14]

Go on ....buy now ...never be cheaper

Delay means you miss out on the cheap ones ...or even worse if a takeover offer comes tomorrow and you miss out altogether.
I've already got SKT allocated to ~40% of my portfolio (assuming i get the full 120%). Probably missed the boat at around 15c (like Mr Director, although I don't have a spare $220k). But certainly at 20c still seems enticing.

[Ogg]

If the Infratil take over did happen tomorrow, it would be like "rubbing salt into the wounds" of existing share holders.

Imagine that, the retail entitlement closes, and then the next day a take over comes.

[huxley]

I wish there was a market to short all these wishful ideas... I would be seriously surprised if IFT decides to buy SKY :)

[Ogg]

I wish there was a market to short all these wishful ideas... I would be seriously surprised if IFT decides to buy SKY :)

Yeah, that's probably what all the people were thinking about with Sky UK.

[dompf]

If the Infratil take over did happen tomorrow, it would be like "rubbing salt into the wounds" of existing share holders.

Imagine that, the retail entitlement closes, and then the next day a take over comes.

I don't see a lot of downside even if there isn't a take over offer (which I do think could be likely).

Darcey as an independent director purchasing 1.5m at market is one of the best indicators something is afoot with this company.

With Super rugby one of the first sports (if not the first? - maybe the NRL) to have a crowd this weekend and a lust for live sport in general across the world I see value with this stock.


DISC holder

[Quantitative Easing]

If the Infratil take over did happen tomorrow, it would be like "rubbing salt into the wounds" of existing share holders.

Imagine that, the retail entitlement closes, and then the next day a take over comes.

I feel the earliest will be when those new shares are allocated to retail investors.

[Ogg]

I feel the earliest will be when those new shares are allocated to retail investors.

That's in about 45mins time.

[mistaTea]

If the Infratil take over did happen tomorrow, it would be like "rubbing salt into the wounds" of existing share holders.

Imagine that, the retail entitlement closes, and then the next day a take over comes.

Could you elaborate on your thinking here a bit more?

I would have assumed now that the retail offer has happened (all applications and payments have been made by now) then the allocation of the retail shares would still have to happen no matter what now?

So even if someone like IFT came in tomorrow and said they wanted to buy sky for $X... existing retail shareholders have have applied and paid for their news shares would not be disadvantaged because they will still get their new shares?

[Ogg]

Could you elaborate on your thinking here a bit more?

I would have assumed now that the retail offer has happened (all applications and payments have been made by now) then the allocation of the retail shares would still have to happen no matter what now?

So even if someone like IFT came in tomorrow and said they wanted to buy sky for $X... existing retail shareholders have have applied and paid for their news shares would not be disadvantaged because they will still get their new shares?

Correct, but only 42mins left now.

[huxley]

Haha. Well I hold IFT so this might be one way to invest in SKY :)

[Cadalac123]

When is the big pay day then?

You guys told the sharesies guys all this ....that’ll give share price a good lift

Big pay day is next monday
Or never. 50/50
Just the type of odds I like

[flyer]

Yes, and my new calculations are factoring my new shares plus 20% in already so better be right.

I would be happy with a 50c take over price.

[Cadalac123]

If that IFT takeover actually ever happened now would be the most awkward time to do it, and I'd have to say the SKT directors are one funny bunch

[Ogg]

Haha. Well I hold IFT so this might be one way to invest in SKY :)

It's a great buy for Infratil

Vodaphone TV is basically Sky TV now anyway.

This would at least give Spark a run for their money.

[Ogg]

I would be happy with a 50c take over price.

Keep dreaming.

Or give Comcast a call.

[mistaTea]

I would be happy with a 50c take over price.

All this talk about a 50c/share takeover price.

Stop it, now you guys are all getting ME excited! 🤪

[Ogg]

All this talk about a 50c/share takeover price.

Stop it, now you guys are all getting ME excited! 浪

50c is unlikely first up.

I'm thinking 30c tops opening offer.

Maybe higher if a bidding war starts.

50c possible but unlikely without American money.

Take over would likely go on for a few months.

[mistaTea]

50c is unlikely first up.

I'm thinking 30c tops opening offer.

Maybe higher if a bidding war starts.

50c possible but unlikely without American money.

Take over would likely go on for a few months.

Yeah I am just joking.

No way would it get to anywhere near 50c unless a couple of well resourced players really slugged it out.

Even then I reckon 50c is a stretch.

[Ogg]

Even then I reckon 50c is a stretch.

Still only ~$850m market cap.

Like I said, possible with multi international buyers with American Dollars.

[Ogg]

Infratil will likely put in a low ball offer of 22c first.

Stock will then churn as people sell out.

Bidding war would then start and offer will be increased.

No way shareholders will agree to sub 30.

If Comcast enters, 50c+ very possible.

[mistaTea]

Let’s see what (if anything) happens.

All I know is that now that Sky have confirmed they are entering Broadband - that is not good for Vodafone.

Sky broadband would be very competitive in the market given the bundling opportunities.

So it is not crazy to think IFT might think this is a great time to just buy them and merge it with Vodafone. Turn a serious threat into an asset.

And because Vodafone already sell Vodafone TV as a standalone product now it would help the case for the comcom if there were major objections.

I just don’t see how it would be even possible to argue that Vodafone would have a monopoly on sport.

VTV is a standalone offering.
Spark have Spark sport.
DAZN have confirmed they are entering the market soon with a boxing offer - and would look for other opportunities in sport.

Compelling case for them to try snap it up now. Before someone else does. And if a wealthy US company purchased sky and then entered broadband...that would be even worse for Vodafone.

They won’t want to pay a cent more than they have to. But it would pay not to be too ‘cheeky’ with any offers I think.

22c would be laughable and would just piss existing shareholders off.

Could also be good news that sky was purchased by a NZ company...good PR etc.

[Ogg]

22c would be laughable and would just piss existing shareholders off.



It is low but that's just the game as a truck load of new investors are in at 12c.

I think a reasonable offer would be 30.

There needs to be another serious bidder with deep pockets to push it higher.

[Quantitative Easing]

If that IFT takeover actually ever happened now would be the most awkward time to do it, and I'd have to say the SKT directors are one funny bunch

If this was america they would be in jail.

[mistaTea]

It is low but that's just the game as a truck load of new investors are in at 12c.


There are only a small % of new investors that actually got in at 12c.

Remember, a big chunk of existing shareholders that took up the 12c offer are probably still sitting on an average purchase price of 50c or more.

Def 40c+.

The price ultimately needs to be compelling enough to convince these shareholders to get any deal over the line.

[Ogg]

There are only a small % of new investors that actually got in at 12c.

Remember, a big chunk of existing shareholders that took up the 12c offer are probably still sitting on an average purchase price of 50c or more.

Def 40c+.

The price ultimately needs to be compelling enough to convince these shareholders to get any deal over the line.

I do hope so but trying to be realistic though.

Sky UK did start at £10.75, then finished at £17.28

So that's like starting at 22, and finishing at 36.

[mistaTea]

Ok, I reluctantly break my rule around sharing news content that sits behind a paywall as a one-off.

The photo in the article is of IFT CEO Marko smiling with Jason Paris of Vodafone. But then the interview does not exactly scream out WE ARE ABOUT TO BUY SKY.

Either because they actually have no interest in Sky, and want to 'stick to their knitting' like Goldsmith just suggested to Ardern? Or they are very good at keeping a poker face so that when they do launch their takeover it will give them the edge that comes with surprise...

**************


Infratil’s chief executive has stressed an unchanged focus on renewable energy and data sectors as it looks to put a newly announced equity raise toward accelerating accretive investments.
The Wellington-based investment company announced earlier today a $300 million equity raise, made up of a fully underwritten $250m institutional placement and a non-underwritten $50m share purchase plan.
Infratil last traded at $5.17 a share before it was placed in a trading halt while the placement of 52.5 million new shares at a price of $NZ4.76 to institutional investors took place.
Chief executive Marko Bogoievski told investors in a conference call that proceeds from the raise would give Infratil more confidence to bring forward developments where their value would increase gradually.
Infratil would have about $514m total available cash from the equity raise, existing debt facilities and cash on hand, and expected $NZ179m more cash to come next month by way of a capital return from its almost two-thirds shareholding in trans-Tasman renewables developer Tilt Renewables.
He expected most of the raised capital would go toward existing investments, particularly in the data and renewable energy sectors Infratil operated.
But Bogoievski made clear the company could comfortably meet existing capital commitments, and said it could support all existing foreseeable developments.
“Our focus hasn’t changed. We’re still targeting high levels of execution in our high conviction platforms of renewable energy and data and, where possible, we will prioritise capital towards and supporting those existing platforms. There is an opportunity to go far further.”
Overemphasise
There was limited room to accelerate the pace of development or to bring forward new investment opportunities. Bogoievski stressed the company’s messages at the release of the full-year results, less than a fortnight ago, remained the same.
At the time, he said Infratil’s default position was to prioritise spending money on supporting existing businesses but it wouldn’t stop looking for new opportunities.
Today, he pointed to assets positioned for growth, including Tilt, US renewables developer Longroad, Aussie data centre provider CDC Data Centres and fledgling European renewables platform Galileo Green Energy.
The Zurich-headquartered company, of which Infratil will own 40%, was busy looking at building its pipeline of wind and solar developments. Bogoievski said that could go quickly “and obviously, with this increased capital support, we’ll be looking to do just that.”
Besides Infratil speeding up accretive investments, the “opportunistic usage of capital in markets like this” was a possibility. But he wouldn’t overemphasise it as a reason behind the equity raise.
The equity raise was a balancing act “between getting that confidence right, having a conservative capital structure, understanding the realities of operating in volatile markets and sending the right message to shareholders about prudent use of precious capital.”
Bogoievski said Infratil was keeping an open mind but it hadn’t found an investment opportunity yet that was a “compelling discount and direct casualty of Covid.”
Effectively equitable
The capital raise was designed to effectively be equitable in prioritising existing shareholders’ calls on their participation levels, Bogoievksi said.
When asked why a pro rata rights issue hadn’t been offered, he said the chosen structure meant Infratil could get a quick institutional placement while giving retail shareholders more time to consider options and still give them the right to participate “up to what would look like their pro rata rights entitlement.”
The NZ Shareholders' Association has urged companies to try and offer shares to existing shareholders in proportion to their current holdings so as to avoid them being diluted.
A renounceable pro rata rights offer was preferred and share purchase plans were a “less acceptable” means of raising capital as they were disproportionate to large or smaller shareholders.
The retail investor lobby group’s policy said companies should honour all subscriptions in full where possible, with scaling used to moderate any inequalities that could arise.
From Friday, eligible Infratil trans-Tasman retail shareholders would be invited to apply for up to $NZ50,000 of new shares under the share purchase plan, and the company said the $NZ50m offer size would enable most of its retail shareholders to maintain their relative shareholdings if they wanted.
If scaling of the share purchase plan was required, Infratil said it would do so by looking to existing shareholder holdings a the relevant record dates, and otherwise, at its discretion.
The price of new shares will be the lower of the placement issue price or a 2.5% discount to the volume-weighted average price of shares traded on the NZX during the last five days of the purchase plan’s offer period ending June 25.

[Entrep]

Just catching up on this thread... I can't see any announcement from SKT about a takeover offer? Or even an article from a respectable publication with some sources?

[Quantitative Easing]

Ok, I reluctantly break my rule around sharing news content that sits behind a paywall as a one-off.

The photo in the article is of IFT CEO Marko smiling with Jason Paris of Vodafone. But then the interview does not exactly scream out WE ARE ABOUT TO BUY SKY.

Either because they actually have no interest in Sky, and want to 'stick to their knitting' like Goldsmith just suggested to Ardern? Or they are very good at keeping a poker face so that when they do launch their takeover it will give them the edge that comes with surprise...

**************


Infratil’s chief executive has stressed an unchanged focus on renewable energy and data sectors as it looks to put a newly announced equity raise toward accelerating accretive investments.
The Wellington-based investment company announced earlier today a $300 million equity raise, made up of a fully underwritten $250m institutional placement and a non-underwritten $50m share purchase plan.
Infratil last traded at $5.17 a share before it was placed in a trading halt while the placement of 52.5 million new shares at a price of $NZ4.76 to institutional investors took place.
Chief executive Marko Bogoievski told investors in a conference call that proceeds from the raise would give Infratil more confidence to bring forward developments where their value would increase gradually.
Infratil would have about $514m total available cash from the equity raise, existing debt facilities and cash on hand, and expected $NZ179m more cash to come next month by way of a capital return from its almost two-thirds shareholding in trans-Tasman renewables developer Tilt Renewables.
He expected most of the raised capital would go toward existing investments, particularly in the data and renewable energy sectors Infratil operated.
But Bogoievski made clear the company could comfortably meet existing capital commitments, and said it could support all existing foreseeable developments.
“Our focus hasn’t changed. We’re still targeting high levels of execution in our high conviction platforms of renewable energy and data and, where possible, we will prioritise capital towards and supporting those existing platforms. There is an opportunity to go far further.”
Overemphasise
There was limited room to accelerate the pace of development or to bring forward new investment opportunities. Bogoievski stressed the company’s messages at the release of the full-year results, less than a fortnight ago, remained the same.
At the time, he said Infratil’s default position was to prioritise spending money on supporting existing businesses but it wouldn’t stop looking for new opportunities.
Today, he pointed to assets positioned for growth, including Tilt, US renewables developer Longroad, Aussie data centre provider CDC Data Centres and fledgling European renewables platform Galileo Green Energy.
The Zurich-headquartered company, of which Infratil will own 40%, was busy looking at building its pipeline of wind and solar developments. Bogoievski said that could go quickly “and obviously, with this increased capital support, we’ll be looking to do just that.”
Besides Infratil speeding up accretive investments, the “opportunistic usage of capital in markets like this” was a possibility. But he wouldn’t overemphasise it as a reason behind the equity raise.
The equity raise was a balancing act “between getting that confidence right, having a conservative capital structure, understanding the realities of operating in volatile markets and sending the right message to shareholders about prudent use of precious capital.”
Bogoievski said Infratil was keeping an open mind but it hadn’t found an investment opportunity yet that was a “compelling discount and direct casualty of Covid.”
Effectively equitable
The capital raise was designed to effectively be equitable in prioritising existing shareholders’ calls on their participation levels, Bogoievksi said.
When asked why a pro rata rights issue hadn’t been offered, he said the chosen structure meant Infratil could get a quick institutional placement while giving retail shareholders more time to consider options and still give them the right to participate “up to what would look like their pro rata rights entitlement.”
The NZ Shareholders' Association has urged companies to try and offer shares to existing shareholders in proportion to their current holdings so as to avoid them being diluted.
A renounceable pro rata rights offer was preferred and share purchase plans were a “less acceptable” means of raising capital as they were disproportionate to large or smaller shareholders.
The retail investor lobby group’s policy said companies should honour all subscriptions in full where possible, with scaling used to moderate any inequalities that could arise.
From Friday, eligible Infratil trans-Tasman retail shareholders would be invited to apply for up to $NZ50,000 of new shares under the share purchase plan, and the company said the $NZ50m offer size would enable most of its retail shareholders to maintain their relative shareholdings if they wanted.
If scaling of the share purchase plan was required, Infratil said it would do so by looking to existing shareholder holdings a the relevant record dates, and otherwise, at its discretion.
The price of new shares will be the lower of the placement issue price or a 2.5% discount to the volume-weighted average price of shares traded on the NZX during the last five days of the purchase plan’s offer period ending June 25.

Thanks for sharing. You are a legend.

[Ogg]

Just catching up on this thread... I can't see any announcement from SKT about a takeover offer?

lol... Nothing but 10 pages of gossip and rumors so far.

Still, I'm tipping a trading halt before open tomorrow morning. You read it here first.

[Quantitative Easing]

If there is one offer then there will be multiple offers as i am sure many would have sat on the sidelines waiting to pounce at the right time.

[Ogg]

If there is one offer then there will be multiple offers as i am sure many would have sat on the sidelines waiting to pounce at the right time.

I think that's why Infratil is rushing this (potential) take over.

It takes months for American companies to decided on anything. Just look at the Mediaworks take over (rumor) by Discovery Inc.

Why not pounce now and pick up Sky while it's share price is beaten down and everyone else is asleep.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think that's why Infratil is rushing this (potential) take over.

It takes months for American companies to decided on anything. Just look at the Mediaworks take over (rumor) by Discovery Inc.

Why not pounce now and pick up Sky while it's share price is beaten down and everyone else is asleep.

I think with that in mind we should as shareholders say NO to any low ball offers. We have to remind ourselves to be greedy as shareholders, sometimes we forget that as an altruistic bunch.

[Cadalac123]

Ogg getting me excited about tomorrow open . Wonder if we’ll get a take over or sell off back into 0.16c

[mistaTea]

Ogg getting me excited about tomorrow open .

To bastardise a line from Jerry Maguire: "He had me at Trading Halt"

:t_up:

[Ogg]

lol, come on now guys. This is all just hypothetical talk. Of cause I'll be saying all this when I'm holding 800k shares.

Still, these two cheeky smiles says it all...

11677

[mistaTea]

Of cause I'll be saying all this when I'm holding 800k shares.



Good man, loads of skin in the game :t_up::D

Is that 800K shares + your allocation that is yet to come?

[Ogg]

Good man, loads of skin in the game :t_up::D

Is that 800K shares + your allocation that is yet to come?

Yeah, includes it as I assume we're all getting 120%.

[mistaTea]

Yeah, includes it as I assume we're all getting 120%.

Here is hoping.

My break even will be 33c if I get 120%. That would represent a takeover of ~$560M. I think that it would not be unreasonable to expect $700M for the company as it stands now, especially with the debt situation sorted.

That would be about 40c/share.

To be clear: I am not banking on any takeovers - but it has been an entertaining topic of speculation today :D

If Sky is not taken over, and enters broadband etc then I think the company could build to a market cap of $1B comfortably (near enough to 60c/share).

[Ogg]

Here is hoping.



I think you'll be fine. Lot of people have much higher averages.

Real winners are the crooks who stole shares @ 12c.

[dompf]

I think you'll be fine. Lot of people have much higher averages.

Real winners are the crooks who stole shares @ 12c.

hey hey hey - im not a crook at my buying on market @.156 my holding is higher than 7 figures. I like Sky TV since i could buy products like the NRL for 25$ or Super Rugby individually without decoders or someone coming to my home. The offering has become better IMO same with the interface for skysport; if we dont see a takeover SKY TV is still a quality brand with upside.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12338501

"Chief executive Marko Bogoievski said the message the company had communicated at its May 29 annual result - that the company was comfortable with its capital position - had not changed."

This is the only bit that seems suspect...I read their recent letter last week, and I was not left thinking a CR was imminent. To the contrary, the boss talked up the strong position they were in etc.

This CR seems out of the blue - and it is hard to imagine why you would quickly raise an additional $300M to build some more wind farms, or extend your server farm etc.

If it was for an acquisition (that may or may not be Sky TV) it would make more sense.

[mistaTea]

hey hey hey - im not a crook at my buying on market @.156 ...

He isn't referring to you.

He is talking about management who did not own any shares before but were able to purchase new shares @12c as part of the institutional placement.

That, as far as I am concerned, is theft.

[dompf]

He isn't referring to you.

He is talking about management who did not own any shares before but were able to purchase new shares @12c as part of the institutional placement.

That, as far as I am concerned, is theft.

thats fair - but people are easier to read than markets - and if senior management see a gain then its a pretty big indicator for the share price.

:>

[Dlownz]

What makes everyone think that there's suddenly going to be a take over. Besides ifts capital raise

[mistaTea]

What makes everyone think that there's suddenly going to be a take over. Besides ifts capital raise

Well, Ogg has called a trading halt of SKT shares tomorrow morning before opening...

But for my part, I have viewed Sky as being in 'takeover territory' for some time now.

The speculation that 'now' might be the time the takeover happens is in part because Mediaworks is in advanced discussions with unnamed players. There was recent speculation in the media that Discovery is about to lock in a deal with the TV arm of Mediaworks.

It seems reasonable to think that any player that would be interested in buying Mediaworks would also be looking at Sky. Sky TV is a much more valuable company than Mediaworks, and its share price has been in the toilet for a long time. It has almost completed a CR which has helped 'clear the decks' so far as debt is concerned. So the company should look more attractive now to a buyer.

Then IFT goes and suddenly implements its own CR - totally out of the blue given the recent letter to shareholders (29 May) gave no indication that they were strapped for cash. They just confirmed a dividend to shareholders plus a $125M performance payment to its managing company.

If they needed more cash to execute expansion projects for their existing assets then one would think this would have been raised in the letter to shareholders.

It seems that some kind of opportunity has presented itself since the letter from IFT to shareholders...and now they are quickly raising capital. Now this new opportunity may not be Sky Television. However it is not totally insane to think that it could be.

Hence the chatter today.

[Quantitative Easing]

Someone with big pockets taking over sky is exactly what Sky needs. I feel like NBC has already done due diligence. It's waiting till the opening offer before putting their offer through...

[Dlownz]

If there really was chatter going on. Wouldn't the share price already be over 20. Investment companys are like vultures. Yes they have already attacked it but I would expect it to already be higher as they always have inside knowledge

[Quantitative Easing]

If there really was chatter going on. Wouldn't the share price already be over 20. Investment companys are like vultures. Yes they have already attacked it but I would expect it to already be higher as they always have inside knowledge

I mean Blair Woodbury bought some shares alongside other directors...that tells you something.

[Ogg]

Someone with big pockets taking over sky is exactly what Sky needs. I feel like NBC has already done due diligence. It's waiting till the opening offer before putting their offer through...

It would be great if NBCUniversal (Comcast) entered the bidding. However, I feel like Infratil would have this all sewn up quickly (if they are smart).

It's likely Infratil are already sitting on a 4.9% stake of Sky via UBS's involvement in the the recent placement.

After they announce a take over offer, at say 22, the stock will jump and heavy trading will commence. Infratil will then be able to accumulate on market the remaining 5.1%, thus taking them up to over 10% and blocking a take over from a competitor or at the very least, making it difficult.

As much as I want Comcast to enter a bidding war, they are just too slow and incompetent and likely see NZ as a small and insignificant market. It's more likely Infratil will buy Sky, and then Comcast will buy Sky off Infratil.

What ever happens, I'm not selling my shares until I'm forced to.

[Quantitative Easing]

It would be great if NBCUniversal (Comcast) entered the bidding. However, I feel like Infratil would have this all sewn up quickly (if they are smart).

It's likely Infratil are already sitting on a 4.9% stake of Sky via UBS's involvement in the the recent placement.

After they announce a take over offer, at say 22, the stock will jump and heavy trading will commence. Infratil will then be able to accumulate on market the remaining 5.1%, thus taking them up to over 10% and blocking a take over from a competitor or at the very least, making it difficult.

As much as I want Comcast to enter a bidding war, they are just too slow and incompetent and likely see NZ as a small and insignificant market. It's more likely Infratil will buy Sky, and then Comcast will buy Sky off Infratil.

What ever happens, I'm not selling my shares until I'm forced to.

Offering 22 cents/share for sky is like offering 900k for a four bedroom house in the grammar zone. Who would say yes to that...

[Ogg]

Offering 22 cents/share for sky

That's just an opening offer. ~20% premium from today's closing price. Pretty standard.

Enough for inexperienced retail holders to start selling.

[mistaTea]

Offering 22 cents/share for sky is like offering 900k for a four bedroom house in the grammar zone. Who would say yes to that...

I love that analogy! Haha!

So true.

[mistaTea]

That's just an opening offer. ~20% premium from today's closing price. Pretty standard.

Enough for inexperienced retail holders to start selling.

If IFT were smart they would buy on market up to 19.99%. The threshold before a hostile takeover is triggered. And then launch a formal takeover from there.

Vero did that a few years back with Tower Insurance. After they hit 19.99% they launched a takeover bid of $1.30 per share (later raised to $1.40)
Ultimately the comcom blocked Vero from buying tower however it was effective in blocking Canadian conglomerate Fairfax from buying the company. The last thing vero wanted was a deep pocketed overseas company entering the NZ insurance market.

[Ogg]

If IFT were smart they would buy on market up to 19.99%. The threshold before a hostile takeover is triggered. And then launch a formal takeover from there.

Vero did that a few years back with Tower Insurance. After they hit 19.99% they launched a takeover bid of $1.30 per share (later raised to $1.40)
Ultimately the comcom blocked Vero from buying tower however it was effective in blocking Canadian conglomerate Fairfax from buying the company. The last thing vero wanted was a deep pocketed overseas company entering the NZ insurance market.

That's possible. So no trading halt tomorrow but a substantial holder notice in the coming days.

What ever happens, you'd be mad to sell now.

Unless of course the comcom blocks again and the whole thing is kaput, lol.

[mistaTea]

That's possible. So no trading halt tomorrow but a substantial holder notice in the coming days.

What ever happens, you'd be mad to sell now.

Unless of course the comcom blocks again and the whole thing is kaput, lol.

Of course, as soon as they had to declare they were buying up large it would push the SP up massively as the market realised a takeover was brewing.

So any notion of a takeover offer @22c would be out of the question.

[Ogg]

Of course, as soon as they had to declare they were buying up large it would push the SP up massively as the market realised a takeover was brewing.

That's why buying 19.9% would be dumb without comcom clearance first.

Getting to 10% would be ideal to block a take over.

If Comcast does enter, then Infratil could just offer to sell Vodafone to Comcast.

[rooster]

Now that Spark does sport streaming, could Comcom block IFT taking over SKT? Hypothetically speaking.

[Ogg]

Now that Spark does sport streaming, could Comcom block IFT taking over SKT? Hypothetically speaking.

No. That's the point. Sky is entering the broadband market regardless.

From what I can see, there should be no issue with comcom.

[Ogg]

So last September Brookfield buys 61.2% of Oaktree Capital

https://ir.oaktreecapital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/brookfield-asset-management-completes-acquisition-612-oaktree (https://ir.oaktreecapital.com/news-releases/news-release-details/brookfield-asset-management-completes-acquisition-612-oaktree)

Oaktree Capital is a major owner of Mediaworks.

Brookfield owns 51% of Vodafone.

Infratil owns 49% of Vodafone and is now doing a $300m placement for potential acquisitions.

Sky does a heavily discounted share placement.

mmm. No, all these events can't be related. I must be crazy!

[Quantitative Easing]

True Headline - Another company delisted from the NZX.

[Ogg]

I think the CEO of Mediaworks is right.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/ (https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/)

Discovery Inc isn't buying Mediaworks.

Brookfield and Infratil are buying both Mediaworks and Sky TV.

You read it here first.

[Ogg]

Just lol if the stock doesn't go into a trading halt tomorrow.

The biggest media shake up in NZ is about to happen.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think the CEO of Mediaworks is right.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/ (https://thespinoff.co.nz/media/05-06-2020/senior-mediaworks-source-emphatically-denies-reports-three-sold-to-discovery/)

Discovery Inc isn't buying Mediaworks.

Brookfield and Infratil are buying both Mediaworks and Sky TV.

You read it here first.

Yup and they will go 50/50 and put in an offer price of around 800 million NZD.

[Dlownz]

Yup and they will go 50/50 and put in an offer price of around 800 million NZD.

If you say 800 million. Then the company is priced at 50 cents a share.

[Balance]

Just lol if the stock doesn't go into a trading halt tomorrow.

The biggest media shake up in NZ is about to happen.

You mean it will be too late to buy today when markets open? 😳

[Akane]

Just lol if the stock doesn't go into a trading halt tomorrow.

The biggest media shake up in NZ is about to happen.

Just caught up 5 pages worth of chatter... I hope you're right, SKT was one of my first investments into share market, the bags are heavy and all I want to do is get off this wild ride, so far I've lost 85%+ of my holdings worth (not counting the entitlement CR offer). Getting off this crazy bus with minor scrapes and bruises would be a blessing.

[Raz]

well I think we are now all waiting, great chat guys

[Ogg]

You mean it will be too late to buy today when markets open? 

It means that there's enough information in the public domain to warrant an explanation or at least some type of commentary confirming or denying these rumors.

The market needs to be informed about potential material events. Otherwise more retail holders could sell their stock and remain unaware of what's going on.

[winner69]

Just lol if the stock doesn't go into a trading halt tomorrow.

The biggest media shake up in NZ is about to happen.

No announcement yet

[Ogg]

No announcement yet

If Sky don't request a trading halt, then the NZX will, because the stock is about to go bonkers.

[winner69]

If Sky don't request a trading halt, then the NZX will, because the stock is about to go bonkers.

Hope k14 bought up big yesterday ...he was tempted ...could be costly if he dillied dallied around and misses out

[sb9]

Now that the retail entitlement closed, we should see price firming into +.20c range in days ahead.

[mistaTea]

Best case I think I could realistically hope for is a IFT-Brookfield takeover of $600M. That would be like them offering $450M before the Capital Raise.

That would be ~35c/share. I would get out of this with my balls still attached and even a 2c/share profit (assuming I get my 120% allocation).

That would be a fantastic outcome given the huge paper losses I have been showing.

It would be a dream come true if there was a bidding war. But I think that if it does turn out to be IFT-Brookfield they will be able to wrap it up quick smart. As Ogg has said, the likes of NBC do seem to move slowly.

[Entrep]

Remind me when the new shares are issued to retail?

[mistaTea]

Remind me when the new shares are issued to retail?

Settlement is on 16 June.

[Quantitative Easing]

It is unlikely anything will happen today with takeovers (hope i am wrong)...I think the earliest there will be an offer is August...

[mistaTea]

It is unlikely anything will happen today with takeovers (hope i am wrong)...I think the earliest there will be an offer is August...


If IFT and Brookfield are about to buy Sky I think it would happen soon.

By the way, the $300M raised by IFT would equate to half of the $600M I mentioned earlier. IFT have capacity to go up to half a billion post CR...so in theory they could participate in a purchase up to $1B.

No way in hell would they pay that just for Sky TV, but I am just saying they have capacity for a strong starting bid and could even push a bit higher if other interested parties also came in and started bidding.

[k14]

Hope k14 bought up big yesterday ...he was tempted ...could be costly if he dillied dallied around and misses out
Nope, didn't buy anything (it was payday too!).

No SKT announcement yet but IFT in trading halt pending announcement! https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354419 Is this the start? Or is that standard after a capital raise announcement?

[winner69]

Guys ....don’t forget Infratil have another $180m cash coming from Tilt next month

Jeez. ..they got heaps to play with