SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Akane]

Nope, didn't buy anything (it was payday too!).

No SKT announcement yet but IFT in trading halt pending announcement! https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354419 Is this the start? Or is that standard after a capital raise announcement?


Trading halt is being lifted.

[Entrep]

Guys ....don’t forget Infratil have another $180m cash coming from Tilt next month

Jeez. ..they got heaps to play with

Add $180M on to the $800M price that someone else suggested would be good for the takeover, and you nearly get to $1 billion. May throw in some more debt - say another $800M, and we are nearly at $2 BILLION. Truly astonishing figures.

[winner69]

Add $180M on to the $800M price that someone else suggested would be good for the takeover, and you nearly get to $1 billion. May throw in some more debt - say another $800M, and we are nearly at $2 BILLION. Truly astonishing figures.

And Infratil always do leverage their investments

Could even buy Air NZ at this rate

[Entrep]

And Infratil always do leverage their investments

Could even buy Air NZ at this rate

Imagine the headlines! Might even have some left over for THL. Maybe we need to start considering what companies will actually remain on the NZX once IFT is done?

[Quantitative Easing]

We don't know the timeline. My initial post was before the end of the year. If it doesn't happen before the end of the year then it will never happen. Best time to buy would be August after the results are announced for end of June. I stand by my offer price being between 49-54cents. It is an evolving story though, so it might change down the track. That is how things stand now.

[mistaTea]

Imagine the headlines! Might even have some left over for THL. Maybe we need to start considering what companies will actually remain on the NZX once IFT is done?

LOLLLLLL!

Yes, the way you are getting me excited...if I fiddle the numbers enough maybe I should actually be looking forward to a 3 BILLION dollar deal for Sky!!

And there I was getting ready to settle! Ha!

Thank you Entrep!

[winner69]

Imagine the headlines! Might even have some left over for THL. Maybe we need to start considering what companies will actually remain on the NZX once IFT is done?

Back in the days when Brierley was buying everything up that came into consideration .....but the joke around town was that Odlins would avoid the takeover ‘because they were so useless, nobody would buy them’

Ironically the NZX is now based in the old (refurbished) Odlins building.

[blackcap]

166 buyers for SKY at 19.6 cents wanting 200,000. Thats an average order size of $240. Wonder who that may be.

[Ogg]

166 buyers for SKY at 19.6 cents wanting 200,000. Thats an average order size of $240. Wonder who that may be.

That's the Sharesies pile. Happens everyday. Computer auto adjusts the order to try and get filled.

[blackcap]

Back in the days when Brierley was buying everything up that came into consideration .....but the joke around town was that Odlins would avoid the takeover ‘because they were so useless, nobody would buy them’

Ironically the NZX is now based in the old (refurbished) Odlins building.

That must be a while ago Winner. I can't remember that one and I was well versed in NZX jokes/stories in my younger years. But its a pretty good one none the less.

[blackcap]

That's the Sharesies pile. Happens everyday. Computer auto adjusts the order to try and get filled.

Yeah I know that. My "question" was more rhetorical in nature. Market orders that get put in at say 19.4 or 19.3, 19.5 gets taken out and they have to adjust them up.

[Cadalac123]

That's the Sharesies pile. Happens everyday. Computer auto adjusts the order to try and get filled.

You know everyone says it’s sharesies but I don’t actually think it’s sharesies given this phenomenon was present years before sharesies existed too

[Ogg]

Yeah I know that. My "question" was more rhetorical in nature. Market orders that get put in at say 19.4 or 19.3, 19.5 gets taken out and they have to adjust them up.

Yeah, their algorithm is pretty crap. Pro traders have cottoned on to how it works long ago.

[Quantitative Easing]

If we break the 20 cent mark then we could go much higher. Next resistance at 30 cents.

[Ogg]

90 users browsing this thread, lol.

The cat is out of the bag.

The NZX needs to stop trading. A "please explain" announcement must be done.

[bull....]

21st Century Fox makes Sky takeover offer
https://www.screendaily.com/news/21st-century-fox-makes-sky-takeover-offer/5112076.article

[Dlownz]

Yup and they will go 50/50 and put in an offer price of around 800 million NZD.


90 users browsing this thread, lol.

The cat is out of the bag.

The NZX needs to stop trading. A "please explain" announcement must be done.

LOL. Tempted to buy more. But I've already got heaps in this one. I'd just be annoyed if I don't get as much of the 20% extra as that's the cream. Especially if I could have brought more at 15cents

[winner69]

21st Century Fox makes Sky takeover offer
https://www.screendaily.com/news/21st-century-fox-makes-sky-takeover-offer/5112076.article

Yippee ...so it’s all on

[RGR367]

21st Century Fox makes Sky takeover offer


https://www.screendaily.com/news/21st-century-fox-makes-sky-takeover-offer/5112076.article

Back into the future (2016) :cool:

[jonu]

Yippee ...so it’s all on

Mischievous Winner!

[Quantitative Easing]

All the instos are browsing this thread and trying to increase their holding knowing that there is a takeover coming. You would be surprised at how many instos tune into the sharetrader forum.

[mistaTea]

JUST ABOUT TO HIT 20c!

CHRIST ALMIGHTY ITS ALL GO BABY!!

[Ogg]

Large undisclosed buy orders on Infratil. Perhaps more insiders want to accumulate there before announcement. A Mediaworks + Sky announcement will likely make that stock jump 10%.

[Quantitative Easing]

JUST ABOUT TO HIT 20c!

CHRIST ALMIGHTY ITS ALL GO BABY!!

We need to break that 20 cent barrier and not bounce off it. Everyone stand up and push harder so we break the great wall. Free Berlin.

[bull....]

the nzx site is down due to skt announcements

[Ogg]

We need to break that 20 cent barrier and not bounce off it. Everyone stand up and push harder so we break the great wall. Free Berlin.

Retail can only push Sky up so much. Insiders have already secured Sky holdings in placement. Smart money is now going into Infratil.

[Entrep]

What colour Lambo you gonna buy Ogg?

[Ogg]

What colour Lambo you gonna buy Ogg?

Mate, I'm just retail. The lambo drivers are UBS and Goldman who underwrote the stock at 12c.

[Cadalac123]

Wonder if institutions will pump and dump

[flyer]

Hopefully we will all receive our emails today saying our 120% SPP were successful and our new quantity of shares are …..

[Ogg]

Wonder if institutions will pump and dump

No need to pump it because take over is coming. They're not selling either.

I fear that the take over price on Sky may not be as high as many on here are hoping.

The insiders are now buying Infratil.

Unless a White Knight comes (Comcast), then this might not be an exciting take over.

[mistaTea]

No need to pump it because take over is coming. They're not selling either.

I fear that the take over price on Sky may not be as high as many on here are hoping.

The insiders are now buying Infratil.

Unless a White Knight comes (Comcast), then this might not be an exciting take over.

Hey, as Dr Evil would say...I’m still hoping IFT are going to come in and offer me...ONE MILLION DOLLARS!

[Ricky-bobby]

I was one of them. Hearing some rumours and thought I would jump in.

[Cadalac123]

Wow so takeover is confirmed now eh? amazing how fast that escalated

[Ogg]

Hey, as Dr Evil would say...I’m still hoping IFT are going to come in and offer me...ONE MILLION DOLLARS!

lol. Hold tight. We both know IFT want SKT. We just have to hope management don't stuff this up and throw small holders under the bus again!

[mistaTea]

lol. Hold tight. We both know IFT want SKT. We just have to hope management don't stuff this up and throw small holders under the bus again!

I am not sure that IFT necessarily want Sky...

It could be more that with Sky Broadband coming soon...that move would make Vodafone worth less as Sky would be a serious competitor. With over 1M existing subs to market to, and the range of compelling bundles they could offer both satellite and streaming... it would be bad news for Vodafone (and Spark for that matter).

So perhaps it is a case of buying Sky to turn a potential serious threat into an asset. Especially while Sky can be picked up for pennies on the intrinsic dollar.

[Ricky-bobby]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got

[Ogg]

I am not sure that IFT necessarily want Sky...

It could be more that with Sky Broadband coming soon...that move would make Vodafone worth less as Sky would be a serious competitor. With over 1M existing subs to market to, and the range of compelling bundles they could offer both satellite and streaming... it would be bad news for Vodafone (and Spark for that matter).

So perhaps it is a case of buying Sky to turn a potential serious threat into an asset. Especially while Sky can be picked up for pennies on the intrinsic dollar.

It's really just a "Vodafone Merger 2.0" not a take over.

[Ogg]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got

lol. Top class gossip. Well done.

[Quantitative Easing]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got

Lol do you work for Sky?

[k14]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got
This website is awesome...

[mistaTea]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got

Where have you heard this information!?

https://giphy.com/gifs/EjA1jVqMO1UNG/html5

[jonu]

From what I have heard, nothing is signed but is getting close. Don’t know the parties involved but apparently big... sorry that’s all iv got

Been talking to your Uber driver?

[mistaTea]

Been talking to your Uber driver?

Never a good idea to take a tip from a guy called Hard Dick.

He he he. I said "tip" and Hard Dick in the same sentence.

[mistaTea]

Trading volume well down...

The calm before the storm...

[RTM]

Well...aside from all that..and to get back the knitting.....they have hooked me for the winter.
$25.00 per month for SkySport for 6 months.
I'm on board ! Even if not with the stock.

[mistaTea]

Well...aside from all that..and to get back the knitting.....they have hooked me for the winter.
$25.00 per month for SkySport for 6 months.
I'm on board ! Even if not with the stock.

Yeah that's really good value.

Ultimately I reckon they will tweak the Sky Sport NOW pricing so you can just subscribe to individual channels if you want.

Everyone who subscribes gets the News channel (which is great advertising for all of their content), but if you are just a Rugby fan (for example) you can have Sky Sport 1 access and On Demand content for $15/month.

Let customers decide whether it makes sense for them to just select individual channels or take the lot for $39.99 per month standard 12 month pricing.

[k14]

Yeah that's really good value.

Ultimately I reckon they will tweak the Sky Sport NOW pricing so you can just subscribe to individual channels if you want.

Everyone who subscribes gets the News channel (which is great advertising for all of their content), but if you are just a Rugby fan (for example) you can have Sky Sport 1 access and On Demand content for $15/month.

Let customers decide whether it makes sense for them to just select individual channels or take the lot for $39.99 per month standard 12 month pricing.
Thanks for the reminder, just signed up.

[mistaTea]

God damn it Ogg.

Last night after your prediction I rushed out and bought a bottle of Krug from my local New World.

$300 spent and no takeover!

[Ogg]

God damn it Ogg.

Last night after your prediction I rushed out and bought a bottle of Krug from my local New World.

$300 spent and no takeover!

lol. Keep it on ice. Won't be long.

[Entrep]

Damn, you think Giltrap will refund the deposit I paid on a new 991 GT3 RS? I was expecting the T/O to be complete this week and full payment is due by the end of the month!

[mistaTea]

Damn, you think Giltrap will refund the deposit I paid on a new 991 GT3 RS? I was expecting the T/O to be complete this week and full payment is due by the end of the month!

No chance! I think you are screwed mate.

Come over, we can drown our sorrows with Krug.

[mistaTea]

I was even bouncing my young son on my knee last night, I kept exclaiming "We are rich! We are rich! We are so very rich!!".

You can imagine my chagrin this afternoon!

[Entrep]

No chance! I think you are screwed mate.

Come over, we can drown our sorrows with Krug.

lol, you're a good sport mistaTea!

[Cadalac123]

God dammit, liquidity gone too - for now

[Ogg]

"Wherefore art thou Comcast!"

[winner69]

All the instos are browsing this thread and trying to increase their holding knowing that there is a takeover coming. You would be surprised at how many instos tune into the sharetrader forum.

Yep, those insto’s need all the help they can get

[Cadalac123]

Yeah that's why all those instos bought AIR, because its popular on sharesies

[Quantitative Easing]

You guys are dreaming if you think the takeover will come this week. It will most likely come around August this year. I am still not sure about com-com approval, especially if it is a combined mediaworks-sky deal.

[Quantitative Easing]

Without a takeover by someone with deep pockets Sky will not survive long term.

[RTM]

Without a takeover by someone with deep pockets Sky will not survive long term.

Hope its 6 months...I just subscribed !

[Quantitative Easing]

Yep, those insto’s need all the help they can get

Sharetrader is the only forum in NZ to help instos understand the sentiment of retail investors...Also there aren't that many threads to follow...so naturally any good insto would keep an eye on it.

[mistaTea]

Without a takeover by someone with deep pockets Sky will not survive long term.

They wouldn’t be able to carry on in their current form forever.

But a new telco Sky TV will do just fine. Better than fine - and it should have Vodafone et al worried.

[mistaTea]

You guys are dreaming if you think the takeover will come this week. It will most likely come around August this year. I am still not sure about com-com approval, especially if it is a combined mediaworks-sky deal.

If comcom won’t let the likes of IFT takeover Sky then they should block Sky from entering Broadband directly.

It produces the same result - a Sky TV telco.

[Entrep]

Cold shower recommended for a few on this thread.

If by "cold" you mean precious gems, diamonds, gold and unlimited NEON coupon codes then come on board the SKY train buddy!

[Quantitative Easing]

We don't want Infratil. We need a rich american sugar daddy like Comcast to take Sky over. I don't think Infratil can tend to Sky's 'needs'..

[winner69]

We don't want Infratil. We need a rich american sugar daddy like Comcast to take Sky over. I don't think Infratil can tend to Sky's 'needs'..

You making me worried now

Yesterday I was going to be rich ....now it seems not so and I’ll be stuck with SKT going nowhere

[Ogg]

We don't want Infratil. We need a rich american sugar daddy like Comcast to take Sky over. I don't think Infratil can tend to Sky's 'needs'..

Basically yeah. If you want an offer 30+ you're going to need hot overseas money.

I just hope Infratil can kick start the process and then other parties jump in. Could go on for months.

[winner69]

I’ve sent a link to this thread to a mate at LSE

[Ogg]

I think Brookfield is calling the shots and they are at the tail end of the Mediaworks restructure.

They've likely told Infratil that if they want a 49% stake in the new venture they better have the cash ready. Hence the sloppy placement yesterday.

Infratil having raised the cash are now just waiting for the tap on the shoulder from Brookfield.

[Quantitative Easing]

You making me worried now

Yesterday I was going to be rich ....now it seems not so and I’ll be stuck with SKT going nowhere

There are far better picks out there to get rich. I'm just saying sky will get taken over and that is what it needs as well. As an altruistic person i want what is best for Sky ultimately. In terms of timeline i never said it will happen today, tomorrow or next week. It will happen before end of the year most probably...There is a chance it might not happen altogether, in which case i will exit my position in due course. Nothing is certain in life except for death and tax. DYOR.

[Jaa]

Sharetrader is the only forum in NZ to help instos understand the sentiment of retail investors...Also there aren't that many threads to follow...so naturally any good insto would keep an eye on it.

This isn't really true anymore. The Shareies, Hatch and other Facebook groups give an alternative view. They might have less invested but there are more of them and the $$$ amounts are growing all the time. FB groups are a nightmare to follow and keep track of but.

[Akane]

This isn't really true anymore. The Shareies, Hatch and other Facebook groups give an alternative view. They might have less invested but there are more of them and the $$$ amounts are growing all the time. FB groups are a nightmare to follow and keep track of but.

The Sharesies group will be the last place I'd look if I wanted good advice, most of them are egging on SKT with no real technical reasoning behind it.

[Quantitative Easing]

The Sharesies group will be the last place I'd look if I wanted good advice, most of them are egging on SKT with no real technical reasoning behind it.

Comparatively, sharetrader is a credible forum with expert pundits.

[mistaTea]

I just want to get rich so my wife can start loving me again. I’m sick of sleeping on the sofa...

Come on IFT! Hook a brother up!

[k14]

I just want to get rich so my wife can start loving me again. I’m sick of sleeping on the sofa...

Come on IFT! Hook a brother up!
I'm sort of in that boat, after I had to grovel to be allowed to clean our accounts out to participate in the raise.

[Ricky-bobby]

Have done a bit of digging and looks like the info I heard is tied up to the internet roll out sky is looking at... sorry ogg...

[mistaTea]

Have done a bit of digging and looks like the info I heard is tied up to the internet roll out sky is looking at... sorry ogg...

Dude. I really feel like you just honey dicked me.

[Ogg]

Have done a bit of digging and looks like the info I heard is tied up to the internet roll out sky is looking at... sorry ogg...

I believe that's already been announced. It's between Sky and Feenix Communications.

Hopefully that deal doesn't go through as Vodafone is a wholesale supplier.

[Ricky-bobby]

Yep that’s the one... apparently pretty close to going through... that’s what they have raised capital for?...

[Ogg]

Yep that’s the one... apparently pretty close to going through... that’s what they have raised capital for?...

That's good news that it hasn't gone through, because Sky won't need them when they merge with Vodafone.

That's why that deal is being held up.

Another piece of the "take over puzzle" emerges.

[mistaTea]

Yep that’s the one... apparently pretty close to going through... that’s what they have raised capital for?...

Yep.

Of the $148M net proceeds raised: $100M for paying the bonds, $48M for further enhancements to streaming services and the Sky Broadband launch.

[Quantitative Easing]

When do we hear about how many shares we got allocated? Next Monday?

[mistaTea]

That's good news that it hasn't gone through, because Sky won't need them when they merge with Vodafone.

That's why that deal is being held up.

Another piece of the "take over puzzle" emerges.

Oh yes, that is probably the final piece of the puzzle. Absolute confirmation that a deal is imminent.

If Comcast can come in and bid it up to 66c I will get my cool million...

[Ogg]

Oh yes, that is probably the final piece of the puzzle. Absolute confirmation that a deal is imminent.

If Comcast can come in and bid it up to 66c I will get my cool million...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=53LTdZ7dIho

[Quantitative Easing]

Oh yes, that is probably the final piece of the puzzle. Absolute confirmation that a deal is imminent.

If Comcast can come in and bid it up to 66c I will get my cool million...

I better get some ritalin ready if we get a takeover offer for 66 cents/share.

[mistaTea]

I better get some ritalin ready if we get a takeover offer for 66 cents/share.

It would amount to an offer of ~$1.1B. Perfectly reasonable expectation...

[Quantitative Easing]

It would amount to an offer of ~$1.1B. Perfectly reasonable expectation...

We would be lucky to get that price but stranger things have happened. Probably looking at around 800m on the top end...which is only US$522m...

[mistaTea]

We would be lucky to get that price but stranger things have happened. Probably looking at around 800m on the top end...which is only US$522m...

I would walk away with about $700K in that scenario.

Maybe my wife would let me be little spoon again...

[Cadalac123]

takeover tomorrow or friday lads?
bets on tomorrow mane - lets go 0.60c

[Quantitative Easing]

takeover tomorrow or friday lads?
bets on tomorrow mane - lets go 0.60c

Na most likely August with an offer price of 49-54 cents/share...

[mistaTea]

Na most likely August with an offer price of 49-54 cents/share...

Nah next week after the CR process is finished, but well before the SP has recovered too much...

By August the SP will already be @30c...

[Cadalac123]

Gotta love these predictable after market drops

[Entrep]

Add $180M on to the $800M price that someone else suggested would be good for the takeover, and you nearly get to $1 billion. May throw in some more debt - say another $800M, and we are nearly at $2 BILLION. Truly astonishing figures.



We would be lucky to get that price but stranger things have happened. Probably looking at around 800m on the top end...which is only US$522m...

Totally forgot we should be pricing in US dollars... after all, all of SKY's content deals will be in US dollars. So should the take over price... AMIRIGHT or what!?

So, taking the $2B figure I calculated before, divide by 0.60c and we get $3.3B NZD. Carry the 1 and up the leverage some more (USD is cheap after all), and I think that $6 billion NZD is not totally out the question.

Thoughts?

[mistaTea]

Totally forgot we should be pricing in US dollars... after all, all of SKY's content deals will be in US dollars. So should the take over price... AMIRIGHT or what!?

So, taking the $2B figure I calculated before, divide by 0.60c and we get $3.3B NZD. Carry the 1 and up the leverage some more (USD is cheap after all), and I think that $6 billion NZD is not totally out the question.

Thoughts?

I think that your reasoning is flawless.

The more you make your strong and perfectly valid case the more I want to kick myself for getting ready to give my business away for so damn cheap!

If you REALLY think about it... Sky is clearly a much more valuable business than Spark even. So if we had any sense we would really be expecting more than $8B!!

[Ogg]

Totally forgot we should be pricing in US dollars... after all, all of SKY's content deals will be in US dollars. So should the take over price... AMIRIGHT or what!?

So, taking the $2B figure I calculated before, divide by 0.60c and we get $3.3B NZD. Carry the 1 and up the leverage some more (USD is cheap after all), and I think that $6 billion NZD is not totally out the question.

Thoughts?


11682.......

[Entrep]

If you REALLY think about it... Sky is clearly a much more valuable business than Spark even. So if we had any sense we would really be expecting more than $8B!!

SKY has 1,434,855,609 shares on issue according to NZX. It's ATH was well over $6. That's $9 Billion before you even convert it from USD to NZD and back. $8 billion is a steal mate.

[mistaTea]

SKY has 1,434,855,609 shares on issue according to NZX. It's ATH was well over $6. That's $9 Billion before you even convert it from USD to NZD and back. $8 billion is a steal mate.

That’s what I’m saying mate - $8B represents a win-win for all parties concerned.

[RTM]

And I am just pleased with Sky Sport Go for $25 / month !
Highly entertaining holders, good luck.

[Quantitative Easing]

At these prices there is very little downside if the takeover doesn't eventuate. If a takeover does happen then there is tremendous upside. More to gain than to loose at these level. That is how i see it.

[Quantitative Easing]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516984/nz-shares-fall-as-world-waits-on-the-fed.html

"Infratil dropped 4 percent to $4.97 after raising $250 million through an institutional placement priced at $4.76 per share to position the infrastructure investment firm to pursue its growth agenda and take advantage of any new opportunities.Lister said there was likely an acquisition opportunity on the horizon.
“As a shareholder you don’t want that money just sitting there - you want them to be putting that capital to work,” he said."

Worst kept secret in the market...

[Quantitative Easing]

Sky TV bought Rugbypass for NZ$60M and that makes no real money...so SKY is at least worth 10 times Rugbypass.

[mistaTea]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976516984/nz-shares-fall-as-world-waits-on-the-fed.html

"Infratil dropped 4 percent to $4.97 after raising $250 million through an institutional placement priced at $4.76 per share to position the infrastructure investment firm to pursue its growth agenda and take advantage of any new opportunities.Lister said there was likely an acquisition opportunity on the horizon.
“As a shareholder you don’t want that money just sitting there - you want them to be putting that capital to work,” he said."

Worst kept secret in the market...

Yeah there is absolutely no doubt that the money is for an acquisition. The question still remains - is that acquisition Sky TV?

It might not be. But then, I am not sure what other 'infrastructure' asset are going so ridiculously cheap that they had to do a rushed CR a week after the shareholder letter said their Balance Sheet was strong and they were well positioned to do what they need to do in the coming months etc.

Can't blame Sky shareholders for getting a little excited...

[mistaTea]

Sky TV bought Rugbypass for NZ$60M and that makes no real money...so SKY is at least worth 10 times Rugbypass.

Very true!

So maybe we should expect an opening bid of $660M (38c/share)!

[Quantitative Easing]

Very true!

So maybe we should expect an opening bid of $660M (38c/share)!

I feel like paying that much for Rugbypass was a waste of money. Martin doesn't really understand the value of the dollar as opposed to Mr John Fellet. John can squeeze every penny out of the dollar. I hope Martin doesn't go on a spending spree willy nilly...

[mistaTea]

I feel like paying that much for Rugbypass was a waste of money. Martin doesn't really understand the value of the dollar as opposed to Mr John Fellet. John can squeeze every penny out of the dollar. I hope Martin doesn't go on a spending spree willy nilly...

Well, if he does try to go on a spending spree we rely on The Board to reign him in...

[Ogg]

I was disappointed the take over didn't happen today.

However, I have a strong suspicion that it will either happen tomorrow, or the latest by Friday. Why? Because if you read the Infratil placement announcement it contains this line:

"the final terms of the SPP are expected to be announced in more detail on Friday, 12 June 2020"

In other words, more details will be released on Friday.

Why did Infratil make this statement? It is because they did not provide the retail offer document in their announcement, which is odd. I suspect this is because they are still preparing it with the full details of the Sky take over. This is because they can not legally raise money publicly without a full disclosure agreement, which is required by the Financial Markets Authority.

I also noticed that the Infratil shareoffer website is down for maintenance.

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/

I suspect that the Infratil retail document and website will contain the full details of the Sky takeover, with all the risks and legal documentation.

Otherwise, how can Infratil raise money publicly without fully informing retail investors of the potential risks?


--------

The above is all just my own opinion, DYOR.

[mistaTea]

I was disappointed the take over didn't happen today.

However, I have a strong suspicion that it will either happen tomorrow, or the latest by Friday. Why? Because if you read the Infratil placement announcement it contains this line:

"the final terms of the SPP are expected to be announced in more detail on Friday, 12 June 2020"

In other words, more details will be released on Friday.

Why did Infratil make this statement? It is because they did not provide the retail offer document in their announcement, which is odd. I suspect this is because they are still preparing it with the full details of the Sky take over. This is because they can not legally raise money publicly without a full disclosure agreement, which is required by the Financial Markets Authority.

I also noticed that the Infratil shareoffer website is down for maintenance.

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/

I suspect that the Infratil retail document and website will contain the full details of the Sky takeover, with all the risks and legal documentation.

Otherwise, how can Infratil raise money publicly without fully informing retail investors of the potential risks?


--------

The above is all just my own opinion, DYOR.

Interesting thoughts Ogg. If you are right, we won't have to wait long before a move is made.

Went back through the Infratil Annual Report. This is what the Chairman said:

"Another factor the board focusses on is capital structure. Last year Infratil raised additional equity to improve financial resilience and fund the acquisition of Vodafone NZ. Given events, it is good to be able to report that Infratil has the funds for operational and investment needs, and to meet capital obligations, including paying a dividend."

So their bs about how they want to raise $300M a few days after writing that in the AP to build some more data centres and wind farms is laughable.

And I agree that it is very odd that they did not have an Offer Document ready to go. Sky TV did - because they were obviously planning their CR for a while and had their sh1t together.

So to suddenly go out to raise a large sum of $$$... I cannot for the life of me think of any other assets that are selling well below intrinsic value that they could buy which would be complimentary to their existing assets other than Sky.

That in no way shape or form means that I definitely think Sky is the target here. But it is plausible, if not likely.

[mistaTea]

I also think it is weird for Brookfield to be buying Mediaworks TV arm from their subsidiary Oaktree Capital. Why all the song and dance about a sale process if it is just being sold to the parent company?

Perhaps the plan is for Brookfield to have Oaktree flog off Mediaworks, and put that money towards buying Sky. Sky TV has Prime anyway, so what would TV3 give them that Sky doesn't already have?

And perhaps it would be easier from a regulatory perspective to get the Sky deal over the line if they don't also own TV3 and Bravo. Otherwise TVNZ will be able to cry foul that they are the only other 'independent' media entity competing against the Sky TV juggernaut...

So if that is correct (big if) then perhaps we wouldn't expect to hear anything until after a confirmed buyer was locked in for Mediaworks?

[RupertBear]

Geeez I am enjoying reading all these posts! Thanks guys I hope it all comes to fruition for you, I actually think it will :D

[Ogg]

I also think it is weird for Brookfield to be buying Mediaworks TV arm from their subsidiary Oaktree Capital. Why all the song and dance about a sale process if it is just being sold to the parent company?

Perhaps the plan is for Brookfield to have Oaktree flog off Mediaworks, and put that money towards buying Sky. Sky TV has Prime anyway, so what would TV3 give them that Sky doesn't already have?

And perhaps it would be easier from a regulatory perspective to get the Sky deal over the line if they don't also own TV3 and Bravo. Otherwise TVNZ will be able to cry foul that they are the only other 'independent' media entity competing against the Sky TV juggernaut...

So if that is correct (big if) then perhaps we wouldn't expect to hear anything until after a confirmed buyer was locked in for Mediaworks?

What song and dance? There was a couple of articles in NZHeard last October about it. All gossip. It said Mediaworks was for sale, but Mediaworks has lots of different assets. The radio part of business was being sold. The TV business was never for sale, only some of the assets were getting broken up.

Don't you think it's weird that they said "we're not making any redundancies in the TV department", but then they go and flog off the building? Wouldn't you keep the building if you were looking for a buyer? So weird. It's being assets striped - typical Wall Street style.

If your buying Sky you might as well buy TV3 and take the lot.

Why else would Brookfield buy a controlling stake in Oaktree?

[mistaTea]

What song and dance? There was a couple of articles in NZHeard last October about it. All gossip. It said Mediaworks was for sale, but Mediaworks has lots of different assets. The radio part of business was being sold. The TV business was never for sale, only some of the assets were getting broken up.

Don't you think it's weird that they said "we're not making any redundancies in the TV department", but then they go and flog off the building? Wouldn't you keep the building if you were looking for a buyer? So weird. It's being assets striped - typical Wall Street style.

If your buying Sky you might as well buy TV3 and take the lot.

Why else would Brookfield buy a controlling stake in Oaktree?

Yeah that’s fair enough.

I dunno...it’s the only piece of the puzzle I can’t get to easily slot into place in my mind.

[Ogg]

Yeah that’s fair enough.

I dunno...it’s the only piece of the puzzle I can’t get to easily slot into place in my mind.

You're confusing "Mediaworks" with "TV3".

Mediaworks is the parent company that owns TV3.

Brookfield bought a controlling stake in Oaktree to get control of TV3.

Once Brookfield got control of TV3 it sold off Mediaworks other assets.

Now Brookfield is buying Sky TV.

It's the type of thing Gordon Gekko would do.

[Gerald]

11683

Some people here...

[Cadalac123]

11683

Some people here...

Lol .
Sweet new takeover candidates discussed now . Really excited .

[Ogg]

Some people here...

More like...

11684

I may be early, but i am not wrong.

[Ogg]

Come on guys. I called the take over one day too early.

The website is being updated now. It's currently password protected.

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/

Infratil obviously needed a day or two to get this sorted out.

[mistaTea]

Come on guys. I called the take over one day too early.

The website is being updated now. It's currently password protected.

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/

Infratil obviously needed a day or two to get this sorted out.

I still got your back mate. Don’t mind the haters.

But Gerald’s post did make me snort when I laughed! That’s exactly what we must look like! Haha!

[Quantitative Easing]

Come on guys. I called the take over one day too early.

The website is being updated now. It's currently password protected.

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/

Infratil obviously needed a day or two to get this sorted out.


I hope Infratil have their warchest ready...this will start a bidding war the likes of NZX has never seen.

[Quantitative Easing]

We will end up finishing at 69 cents.

[Ogg]

We will end up finishing at 69 cents.

25c opening offer.

32c will seal the deal.

If Comcast enters then maybe 40c is possible.

[mistaTea]

25c opening offer.

32c will seal the deal.

If Comcast enters then maybe 40c is possible.

I would be surprised if the opening offer was not at least 30c.

25c represents an ~30% premium to the current SP.

Given there will be a huge portion of shareholders sitting on averages of 50c+/share I would think they would want to come in with a pretty strong offer to begin with.

Start with 30c to soften shareholders up and then seal it with 35-40c (unless a competing bid comes in).

[Ogg]

I would be surprised if the opening offer was not at least 30c.

I do hope so. I'm just trying to be honest as it's an opportunistic take over.

If Infratil are the only bidder then they're going to be in the box seat.

The opening offer is going to be low. That's just how it is.

[RGR367]

We will end up finishing at 69 cents.

With a handle name like yours, yes, 69 cents is a breeze as there is so much computer-money-entries going around these days. So go on, we all like to be entertained and we're adding a prayer too that it materializes eventually.

[mistaTea]

Opening offer 30c. Sky Board recommends the offer subject to an independent valuation.

Valuation comes back and says the company is worth $600M - $800M.

IFT lift the offer price to $600M (35c) and that is the end of the story unless a competing bid comes in.

IFT are borrowing $300M for their share so they must be expecting Sky to end up going for at least $600M.

[Snow Leopard]

Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?

[Ogg]

Opening offer 30c. Sky Board recommends the offer subject to an independent valuation.

Valuation comes back and says the company is worth $600M - $800M.

IFT lift the offer price to $600M (35c) and that is the end of the story unless a competing bid comes in.

IFT are borrowing $300M for their share so they must be expecting Sky to end up going for at least $600M.

That is what would happen if the stock wasn't being manipulated.

I've noticed the last 2 trading days the stock has been pushed down before close. The last 2 weeks of trading has been crazy.

The stock should be trading at 25 in a normal situation. Thus making 30 as an open offer logical. But at the moment things aren't logical.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think the offer will be 6-7 x EBIDTA...

[Ogg]

Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?

Comcast is the only logical buyer that could push it past 40c.

They have Sky UK and could merge the branding together easily.

Their content is already on Sky and they could add more channels.

They could use it to enter the NZ broadband market.

They could use Lightbox and Neon for their new PeacockTV platform.

They might want to have a bigger base here because NZ is Covid free.

[Heimand]

Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?

This my first post here. I tried to find any information on the net, yet couldn't find anything! I have the same question where can I find more information. :)

[Heimand]

I have the same question. I have been searching for the past 2 days and couldn't find anything! Am I missing anything?
(This is my first post here :t_up:)

[mistaTea]

I think the offer will be 6-7 x EBIDTA...

Mate, I’m trying to wind down and get ready for bed now.

Don’t go giving me a semi like that...

[Ogg]

I think the offer will be 6-7 x EBIDTA...

I doubt they will be looking at the financials.

Sky is a strategic asset. It's about how do you leverage that to reach more customers.

I suspect a low ball opening offer with multiple parties interested.

Fox went for 16x ebita. Warner deal was 13x. Sky UK was up near 17x I think.

There's potential for Sky to go 50c+ but it's unlikely without a big bidding war.

More likely just one buyer, Infratil, and it goes for 30c.

[Snow Leopard]

Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?


Comcast is the only logical buyer that could push it past 40c.

They have Sky UK and could merge the branding together easily.

Their content is already on Sky and they could add more channels.

They could use it to enter the NZ broadband market.

They could use Lightbox and Neon for their new PeacockTV platform.

They might want to have a bigger base here because NZ is Covid free.


Does not answer the question does it? :t_down:

[Heimand]

Does not answer the question does it? :t_down:

That is my question as well.

[blackcap]

I still think it could easily go for 24 cents. Here is some simple reasoning. 3/4 of all shares that are on issue have been granted/bought at 12 cents. 24 cents is a 100% gain on that. 24 cents is also about a 30% premium to the 30 day weighted average blah blah which is about a standard for takeovers. All you guys getting hard ons with talk of 6-7x Ebits and 50 cents this need a reality check :P

[mistaTea]

I still think it could easily go for 24 cents. Here is some simple reasoning. 3/4 of all shares that are on issue have been granted/bought at 12 cents. 24 cents is a 100% gain on that. 24 cents ...

This is where your thinking becomes a little muddled blackcap.

Yes you are correct that the vast majority of new shares have even issued at 12c. But that does not mean that 3/4 of sharholders are sitting on an average of 12c/share. Nowhere near it.

If I get my 120% I am probably one of the 'luckier ones' sitting on an average of 33c.

So if IFT-Brookfield come in and offer me $400M for the business (~24c/share) it is not a no brainer to me. I, along with the majority of other shareholders, have to ask ourselves if $400M really represents a premium to intrinsic value given all of the positives and negatives about the business...the imminent entry into broadband etc...

It will be interesting to see how this plays out. It may well be that the first offer is lowball...and I can't sit here just wishing for an offer $600M minimum because it is higher than my average - this whole journey with Sky has been one big reality check...but ultimately I think IFT are raising $300M because they know they are likely going to have to pay for a company that will be going for north of $500M.

Not sure if Spark would have the cheek to try and buy Sky too now after what they did in 2016...but if the asset is cheap, and they want to keep it sway from Vodafone it is worth a punt.

It would be a shocker to me if there was not some kind of bidding war for the asset. And if there is a bidding war then I think it could get to 40c.

I can't see 50c/share - that would take one hell of a bidding war, and the outfit who 'won' at 50c would have to be super super keen to have the business.

[blackcap]

This is where your thinking becomes a little muddled blackcap.

Yes you are correct that the vast majority of new shares have even issued at 12c. But that does not mean that 3/4 of sharholders are sitting on an average of 12c/share. Nowhere near it.

If I get my 120% I am probably one of the 'luckier ones' sitting on an average of 33c.
.

The bidder (if there is one) does not give two hoots what your average is :)The past price and investors averages is irrelevant. What is relevant is looking forward. Maybe I am being too pessimistic, however it would have made more sense to launch a bid a few weeks ago when the SP was very suppressed at 30 cents with the big debt still to pay.

But you make some good arguments as to why someone may end up paying more. Time will tell.

[mistaTea]

The bidder (if there is one) does not give two hoots what your average is :)The past price and investors averages is irrelevant. What is relevant is looking forward. Maybe I am being too pessimistic, however it would have made more sense to launch a bid a few weeks ago when the SP was very suppressed at 30 cents with the big debt still to pay.

But you make some good arguments as to why someone may end up paying more. Time will tell.

But it is not 'irrelevant'...

I appreciate a bidder couldn't give two hoots what I am 'on the table' for...but ultimately shareholders need to approve any takeover offer. I think a lowball offer would be unsuccessful because if it is too low, then enough shareholders would rather keep the business and have a go at becoming a telco.

Any offer made has to be greater or equal to the independent valuation the Board end up getting AND has to be enough to induce enough investors to vote for it.

And your example of $400M... well that would be like someone coming in before the CR and offering $250M... I know the SP has taken a hiding, but I can not envision existing shareholders back then letting someone take 100% control for $250M.

[Ricky-bobby]

Who did the Current ceo work for before sky? Wasn’t it some tv crowd in the uk? Any potential there?...

[mistaTea]

Who did the Current ceo work for before sky? Wasn’t it some tv crowd in the uk? Any potential there?...


He did a stint with Sky UK many moons ago...

But more recently he did a stint with a Middle Eastern broadcaster called OSN.

[Jay]

Apart from you guys is anyone else actually speculating on a takeover bid?

That's what I was wondering as well, where did this talk of takeover come from:confused: apart from on here
Discl -None held

[mistaTea]

That's what I was wondering as well, where did this talk of takeover come from:confused: apart from on here
Discl -None held

We find out by tomorrow if Ogg is a genius...or just some guy on his computer at home in his underwear living with his mother...

[blackcap]

But it is not 'irrelevant'...

I appreciate a bidder couldn't give two hoots what I am 'on the table' for...but ultimately shareholders need to approve any takeover offer..

Shareholders too should not let emotion get in the way of a fair offer. If I have paid $1m for a house, the housing market crashes and now its valued at 500k. If someone came and offered me $600k I would be foolish not to take it. But since I paid $1m for it I would say no? Don't think so. Past price, what people paid for a stock etc, should have no bearing on anything in the future. Granted, I know a lot of people foolishly cannot sell a stock at a loss and would continue holding.

My father is a great example. I told him to get rid of SCY at 45 cents about 2 years ago. But he had paid 48 cents for them and he cannot sell at a loss. Luckily about 3 weeks ago he exited at 14 after 2 years of pressure and nagging from me. Past price is totally immaterial. All that matters is looking forward.

[winner69]

We find out by tomorrow if Ogg is a genius...or just some guy on his computer at home in his underwear living with his mother...

Might find out today ... especially seeing the instos have caught wind of it by following Sharetrader

[mistaTea]

Shareholders too should not let emotion get in the way of a fair offer. If I have paid $1m for a house, the housing market crashes and now its valued at 500k. If someone came and offered me $600k I would be foolish not to take it. But since I paid $1m for it I would say no? Don't think so. Past price, what people paid for a stock etc, should have no bearing on anything in the future. Granted, I know a lot of people foolishly cannot sell a stock at a loss and would continue holding.

My father is a great example. I told him to get rid of SCY at 45 cents about 2 years ago. But he had paid 48 cents for them and he cannot sell at a loss. Luckily about 3 weeks ago he exited at 14 after 2 years of pressure and nagging from me. Past price is totally immaterial. All that matters is looking forward.

I agree with you 100% Blackcap... an investor needs to ideally be looking at everything rationally at all times. If the business is actually worth a third of what it was when you purchased it, and someone offers you that (or a small premium) then the most rational thing to do is sell.

The point I would make though is that, using your numbers, a takeover offer of 24c represents ~$400M. Yes it is a premium to the new shares issued...but existing shareholders (the majority of which will be on the table for the equivalent of a market cap of $700M+) would struggle to view that level of offer as a 'no brainer'.

Is Sky TV, with all the content rights and assets it has and low debt only worth $400M? Only 2.6 times FY20 EBITDA? I don't think a rational investor would sell the business for such a small sum.

So if a takeover does come soon I will be intrigued to see how they play this.

As we experienced with the low ball OGOG offer blackcap, if a bidder missteps with the initial bid it can really backfire.

[Heimand]

That's what I was wondering as well, where did this talk of takeover come from:confused: apart from on here
Discl -None held

This is my question as well. I couldn't find anything anywhere!

[kiora]

Won't SKT just commoditise the BB market.
Loss leader?How long can that last?
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2005/S00240/sky-has-a-broadband-mountain-to-climb.htm
https://billbennett.co.nz/kacific/

[Ogg]

It's not going to be sold for less than 30 as that would be below an independent valuation.

Infratil raised $300m. They're paying off $50m debt, so that leaves them $250m. If they're going halves, that means they've valued it at $500m, which is pretty close to 30c.

$500m is a nice round number. 30c is also ASB Morningside valuation. That's where I see a likely deal being done.

[blackcap]

Is Sky TV, with all the content rights and assets it has and low debt only worth $400M? Only 2.6 times FY20 EBITDA? I don't think a rational investor would sell the business for such a small sum.

S

There are plenty of rational investors willing to sell the firm for a lot less right now.

[Quantitative Easing]

Shareholders too should not let emotion get in the way of a fair offer. If I have paid $1m for a house, the housing market crashes and now its valued at 500k. If someone came and offered me $600k I would be foolish not to take it. But since I paid $1m for it I would say no? Don't think so. Past price, what people paid for a stock etc, should have no bearing on anything in the future. Granted, I know a lot of people foolishly cannot sell a stock at a loss and would continue holding.
.

Na i feel like most people would hold on till the housing market recovers back to over 1 million... Unless they are having cash flow issues. Again for sky are we looking at purely based on share price or it's intrinsic value? Even on houses where murder or crime has occurred it does not sell that much below intrinsic value. So i think intrinsic value is important, that's why i suggested a low ball 6-7 EBIDTA...

[mistaTea]

It's not going to be sold for less than 30 as that would be below an independent valuation.

Infratil raised $300m. They're paying off $50m debt, so that leaves them $250m. If they're going halves, that means they've valued it at $500m, which is pretty close to 30c.

$500m is a nice round number. 30c is also ASB Morningside valuation. That's where I see a likely deal being done.

Yeah I was thinking along similar lines. Morningstar and Simply Wallstreet both had similar valuations of around $450M before the MC. They both seem to take pretty conservative assumptions of earnings and a high discount rate...

Be that as it may, if both of these outfits took the view that the business was worth $450M before the CR...then it is hard to see how it would go for $50M less than that AFTER $150M of new capital has just been injected (which is what 24c/share would represent).

Not rational at all. Which is why I personally think $600M is closer to where it ends up in the absence of a bidding war.

[blackcap]

Na i feel like most people would hold on till the housing market recovers back to over 1 million... Unless they are having cash flow issues. Again for sky are we looking at purely based on share price or it's intrinsic value? Even on houses where murder or crime has occurred does not sell that much below intrinsic value. So i think intrinsic value is important, that's why i suggested a low ball 6-7 EBIDTA...

No they would not. They would sell their house for $600k and buy like for like for $500k.

Past price is totally irrelevant when evaluating opportunities.

Or an alternative example. Lets say you bought a business for $1m that had free cash flows of 100K per annum. (PE you need is 10) Now lets say there is a
market shock and the cash flows are going to be 40k per annum ad infinitum (valuing the business at $400k by your metrics) If someone came and offered you $600k for the business it would be stupid and nonsense to say "no I will not sell because I paid $1m for it".

[Quantitative Easing]

No they would not. They would sell their house for $600k and buy like for like for $500k.
".

But then in 5 years the 600k house would be worth 1.2m and the 500k house would only be 1.0m, if you took it as blanket market recovery..so by selling you miss out on 200k of future profits and probably less rent as i assume 600k house might bring in more rent than a 500k house. I suppose you are right about Sky though, it doesn't have a bright future (barring a takeover) with Martin in charge. So a very low ball offer might get approval from shareholders.

[Quantitative Easing]

Or an alternative example. Lets say you bought a business for $1m that had free cash flows of 100K per annum. (PE you need is 10) Now lets say there is a
market shock and the cash flows are going to be 40k per annum ad infinitum (valuing the business at $400k by your metrics) If someone came and offered you $600k for the business it would be stupid and nonsense to say "no I will not sell because I paid $1m for it".

Of course you would try and sell it at that instance as your cashflows would be severely affected...

[winner69]

But then in 5 years the 600k house would be worth 1.2m and the 500k house would only be 1.0m, if you took it as blanket market recovery..so by selling you miss out on 100k of future profits and probably less rent as i assume 600k house might bring in more rent than a 500k house. I suppose you are right about Sky though, it doesn't have a bright future (barring a takeover) with Martin in charge. So a very low ball offer might get approval from shareholders.

Seems a fair comment .....takeover good for shareholders or many years of pain for shareholders as the dog dies

[mistaTea]

No they would not. They would sell their house for $600k and buy like for like for $500k.

Past price is totally irrelevant when evaluating opportunities.

Or an alternative example. Lets say you bought a business for $1m that had free cash flows of 100K per annum. (PE you need is 10) Now lets say there is a
market shock and the cash flows are going to be 40k per annum ad infinitum (valuing the business at $400k by your metrics) If someone came and offered you $600k for the business it would be stupid and nonsense to say "no I will not sell because I paid $1m for it".

All very true.

Being rational at all times is key, regardless of what you are investing in.

But it is also fair to say that you can't have a bob both ways Blackcap.

On one hand you (correctly) suggest that people facing a realised loss need to make sure they are being perfectly rational because if the business is only now wiorth $350M and the benevolent Infratil offers $400M...they should grab it with both hands, because they are actually getting the best possible outcome they could hope for. Fine, makes sense.

But then your original post indicates that 24c would get through because a lot of the shares have recently been issued at 12c...so a number of shareholders would be realising a profit at 24c. You do not mention anything about them pausing to reflect on whether or not 24c represents IV...it is just that they will be induced because the price is higher than what they paid. Apparently that is all good though.

If we are talking about IDEALISM...it shouldn't matter what you paid fullstops. Even if you paid 1c/share for Sky...it should then be irrelevant that 24c happens to be a 24 bagger for you... if the business is actually worth, say, 40c then it would be irrational to sell for cheap.

But there in lies the problem...most people are not rational. And because they are not rational, anybody planning a takeover bid needs to factor the irrationality of human beings into their opening offer in my view.

[Balance]

So much speculation about takeover.

Question is why post capital raising, not pre capital raising when the company desperately needed a white knight.

Would have been a walkover then for an interested party to take the company over.

Think that through carefully.

[Quantitative Easing]

But then the real question is how was Rugbypass worth NZ$60M and Sky only worth 300M? Easy...Rugbypass was probably worth no more than 5M...Martin taking our dividend money and squandering it.

[Yoda]

I think the million-dollar hous analogy is like the whole share market not one share. If you have a 1 million dollar house with a mortgage there's no way you can sell it for 600. You end up with 400 in negative equity to repay. You would have to do some improvements to the house to bring the value up. And then sell.Likewise , sell the shares for a lower price and take the loss, but stay in the share market and reinvest to make up a loss but stay in the share market

[Quantitative Easing]

I think the million-dollar hous analogy is like the whole share market not one share. If you have a 1 million dollar house with a mortgage there's no way you can sell it for 600. You end up with 400 in negative equity to repay. You would have to do some improvements to the house to bring the value up. And then sell.Likewise , sell the shares for a lower price and take the loss, but stay in the share market and reinvest to make up a loss but stay in the share market

Absolutely, in the share market you have to cut your losses sometimes. If there is no takeover by the end of the year and based on the results posted to the market in August i will probably end up exiting this stock.

[airedale]

In the space of a day the discussion has moved from "irrational exuberance" to philosophical thoughts about human nature and intrinsic value.:)

[Balance]

In the space of a day the discussion has moved from "irrational exuberance" to philosophical thoughts about human nature and intrinsic value.:)

But still no considered answer to this :


So much speculation about takeover.

Question is why post capital raising, not pre capital raising when the company desperately needed a white knight.

Would have been a walkover then for an interested party to take the company over.

Think that through carefully.

Dis. Shareholder - spat out the disgust at the way small shareholders are treated and bought at 17.2c.

[airedale]

Perhaps the directors have a long term {or longish term} plan which does not include a takeover.

[Ogg]

So much speculation about takeover.

Question is why post capital raising, not pre capital raising when the company desperately needed a white knight.

Would have been a walkover then for an interested party to take the company over.

Think that through carefully.

Cause you sent me this PM a few days ago :eek2:


REMOVED

[Balance]

For the traders, notice how SKT gets bought up on NZX each morning but gets sold down in the afternoon after ASX has opened?

Wonder how many of the 12c shares went to Australian institutions.

[Balance]

Deleted post

[Ogg]

Ogg - not cool to post PM on ST for general circulation.

You could have simply answered the question - it is important that punters here think for themselves once in a while.

lol, sorry.

You holding some SKT now too? :D

[Balance]

lol, sorry.

You holding some SKT now too? :D


But still no considered answer to this :
Dis. Shareholder - spat out the disgust at the way small shareholders are treated and bought at 17.2c.

Repeat - spat out my disgust at how retail & small shareholders were treated. ;)

[RTM]

lol, sorry.

You holding some SKT now too? :D

Thanks Ogg, MistaTea and others, for helping with my continued education.
No...not holding. Yet.

[Dlownz]

Either way. The shares will get to or past 24 cents being the most undervalued stock possibly now on the stock market. Sky has a future. As long as my share purchase goes through I'll be happy. Moneys all out of the account so now its a waiting game. I'd love 50 cents a share but I see it as very unrealstic. I could see 36 cents to 45 cents in a year. I'm not holding my breath about a takeover just a lot of speculation on here and not a whisper outside this forum 🙂

[blackcap]

Either way. The shares will get to or past 24 cents being the most undervalued stock possibly now on the stock market. Sky has a future. As long as my share purchase goes through I'll be happy. Moneys all out of the account so now its a waiting game. I'd love 50 cents a share but I see it as very unrealstic. I could see 36 cents to 45 cents in a year. I'm not holding my breath about a takeover just a lot of speculation on here and not a whisper outside this forum ��

I hope you are right but you seem to be stating opinion as fact. No one knows if SKT will get past 24 cents. The market does not seem to think so currently. There is nothing that is a risk free return in life. (maybe some govt bonds and even those are not risk free). What do all you punters know that the people selling SKY do not know?

[mistaTea]

Just had some comms with an analyst (no names) who seems to think the IFT CR could be for NZ refining...

[Ogg]

bought at 17.2c.

Missed that. Nice.

Are you in for just the take over or would you be happy holding?

Remember you posting something along the lines of, Sky is old tech etc.

[mikeybycrikey]

Just had some comms with an analyst (no names) who seems to think the IFT CR could be for NZ refining...

To me that fits more with how IFT operates. They tend to buy boring things and I'm not sure I would call Sky boring. Or at least not boring enough.

And Balance's question about why this didn't happen before the capital raise is an interesting one. Although I do accept that the capital raise did happen pretty quickly.

[Ogg]

Just had some comms with an analyst (no names) who seems to think the IFT CR could be for NZ refining...

What firm does he work for?

[Balance]

Missed that. Nice.

Are you in for just the take over or would you be happy holding?

Remember you posting something along the lines of, Sky is old tech etc.

Sky TV post capital raising is a prime M&A candidate - more merger imo than takeover.

[Leftfield]

Just had some comms with an analyst (no names) who seems to think the IFT CR could be for NZ refining...

Interesting...... however, I suspect there are many possible targets for IFT (not just SKT). Another possibility could be MET? etc. etc.

[Ogg]

Just had some comms with an analyst (no names) who seems to think the IFT CR could be for NZ refining...

You would think if it was for NZ Refining the placement would be a lot more orderly.

Also, they could have built up a holding without raising any eyebrows.

[macduffy]

You would think if it was for NZ Refining the placement would be a lot more orderly.

Also, they could have built up a holding without raising any eyebrows.

Thus, are market rumours starters! I liked the SKT one better - some creative guessing there!

;)

[winner69]

In the space of a day the discussion has moved from "irrational exuberance" to philosophical thoughts about human nature and intrinsic value.:)

That's why my mate at the LSE is finding this thread so fascinating ...one of the best pieces of raw material for his students to study that he has come across for some time

[Quantitative Easing]

That's why my mate at the LSE is finding this thread so fascinating ...one of the best pieces of raw material for his students to study that he has come across for some time

What is that? How to manipulate minds?

[mistaTea]

That's why my mate at the LSE is finding this thread so fascinating ...one of the best pieces of raw material for his students to study that he has come across for some time

No doubt he will be able to slot this in as a useful cautionary tale while he is ramming Efficient Market Theory down their young throats :D

I think that most people participating on the banter on this forum with all the speculation of a takeover are not actually acting on this 'information'. It would be nuts to buy or sell SKT shares right now based on some guys with handles like 'Ogg', 'mistaTea' and 'Quantative Easing' discussing the FOR SURE IMMINENT TAKEOVER of sky tv.

Nobody here seems to have any insider information, and we will just have to wait and see. Still, one can be excused for thinking Sky is a good takeover target at the moment.

[Quantitative Easing]

No doubt he will be able to slot this in as a useful cautionary tale while he is ramming Efficient Market Theory down their young throats :D

I think that most people participating on the banter on this forum with all the speculation of a takeover are not actually acting on this 'information'. It would be nuts to buy or sell SKT shares right now based on some guys with handles like 'Ogg', 'mistaTea' and 'Quantative Easing' discussing the FOR SURE IMMINENT TAKEOVER of sky tv.

Nobody here seems to have any insider information, and we will just have to wait and see. Still, one can be excused for thinking Sky is a good takeover target at the moment.

One can learn more about markets and market behaviour on Hotcopper than at an institution like LSE..

[Ogg]

If the take over doesn't happen by tomorrow, I'm going to have egg on my face.

The Infratil retail document is being released tomorrow. That has to contain more details about how they are going to spend the money. They can't leave out the details and then make a major announcement a few days later, otherwise the document will be legally void. They will either have to wait until the retail placement is finished or withdraw it mid way through and release another updated one.

Tomorrow's the day boys. Otherwise I'm not posting here again until it happens.

[mistaTea]

This is part of the May 29 IFT transcript:

Forsyth Barr :"Just one follow-up question from me. In terms of Vodafone and its relationship with Sky TV and the reselling, we -- obviously, we've seen Sky TV announce that it's going into broadband. Are you expecting any sort of change in the relationship with Sky TV and the reselling of their product?"

Marko Bogoievski, Infratil Limited - CEO & Director : "I mean possibly. I think the relationship is still warm. But obviously, Sky has got sort of a number of significant issues, right? They're probably not so worried about Vodafone at the moment when they've got other more important matters. I mean we'd like to keep working with them on a commercial basis. I think they also talked about offering a mobile service, right? So we could be a wholesale provider of some of those services. But I think, yes, the days of the sort of the straight retail arrangement are probably numbered, right? But that -- those conversations are ahead of us. They haven't happened."

Certainly does not scream out that Marko is planning to buy the company. But then it is hard to think where they go from there with their current Sky TV relationship...without Sky TV, the Vodafone TV product is not very good. It is the Sky TV component that makes it compelling versus, say, Apple TV.

If the relationship they have with them sours because Sky enter Broadband and become a strong competitor...and if the wholesale arrangement ended, I would personally prefer to go back to my AppleTV 4K. All Vodafone TV would be is a STB that allows me to house some of my apps.

From that perspective, there are superior offerings in the market.

So then we get back to the whole "Gosh, it would just make so much more sense for them to buy Sky". But then Sky TV is not really the kind of asset they would typically buy. Would seem like a bit of a stretch.

[Entrep]

Woah, some peeps here were genuine in their T/O talk? I thought we were all having a laugh.

Why on earth would someone buy SKY immediately after a MASSIVE, highly dilutive share issue at 12c? You think the buyer is feeling charitable?

Also, selling broadband on its own is VERY low margin. With Sky it makes sense because of triple play and churn, but Spark, VF etc all have their own bundles anyway. It will help somewhat, but it's not revolutionary anymore.

[mistaTea]

Woah, some peeps here were genuine in their T/O talk? I thought we were all having a laugh.

Why on earth would someone buy SKY immediately after a MASSIVE, highly dilutive share issue at 12c? You think the buyer is feeling charitable?

Also, selling broadband on its own is VERY low margin. With Sky it makes sense because of triple play and churn, but Spark, VF etc all have their own bundles anyway. It will help somewhat, but it's not revolutionary anymore.


Come on now, don't be cheeky. We may not wake up tomorrow with news that IFT are going to treat us all to payments of ONE MILLION DOLLARS!

But it is only post SKT CR that the Broadband entry has been confirmed (which potentially changes things for the likes of IFT - who just forked out $1.7B to buy Vodafone. Not ideal for that asset to become less valuable because another credible entrant is joining the broadband market).

It may not be likely that IFT and Brookfield have picked this as the moment to purchase Sky...but I don't think that the idea that they might do that is completely lunatic.

I don't think anyone on this forum needs to feel embarrassed if no takeover materialises - it was a perfectly valid scenario to pontificate on :eek2:

I have certainly enjoyed the discussion and speculation around the merits of such a purchase :t_up:

[Ogg]

But it is only post SKT CR that the Broadband entry has been confirmed

I think this answer's Balance's question.

It's likely IFT have had their eye on SKT for some time but when that broadband announcement came it likely changed the entire situation. Hence the rushed placement and all guns blazing take over / merger.

[Ogg]

I've put another $10k order on market. Infratil please save me!

[Raz]

The bidder (if there is one) does not give two hoots what your average is :)The past price and investors averages is irrelevant. What is relevant is looking forward. Maybe I am being too pessimistic, however it would have made more sense to launch a bid a few weeks ago when the SP was very suppressed at 30 cents with the big debt still to pay.

But you make some good arguments as to why someone may end up paying more. Time will tell.

I have worked with Comcast, this would be an unusual transaction for them in the past, per last years investment criteria it would not fit. Things can change however I would be surprised. They have strong cashflow and plenty of opportunities in the US currently...

[mistaTea]

I have worked with Comcast, this would be an unusual transaction for them in the past, per last years investment criteria it would not fit. Things can change however I would be surprised. They have strong cashflow and plenty of opportunities in the US currently...

Yeah, it is tempting to think that Comcast might be interested in Sky NZ because they purchased Sky UK.

But Sky UK is a completely different business, and has much more upside potential. They operate in a market of half a billion people for one. Plus they were already a triple play provider when Comcast decided to slug it out with Fox.

Buying Sky NZ could happen because the asset is so cheap in USD and there is a strong potential for upside. But even if Sky NZ tripled in value, it wouldn't move the needle for Comcast.

Wouldn't be shocking at all if they did come in one day and make a play for Sky...but I doubt they are thinking about little old Sky NZ nearly as much as we are!! :eek2:

[Ogg]

News Corporation might be interested. Might give Rupert a call.

[mistaTea]

News Corporation might be interested. Might give Rupert a call.

Regardless of what tomorrow brings...it is still an important day on the calendar as we should find out how much of our allocation we ended up getting!

We also find out if you are the Avatar of Aotearoa - or just some guy sitting in his singlet and urine-stained undies in his mommy's basement!! :t_up:

That last part was just a joke!! Have enjoyed the discussions immensely! :D

[Balance]

News Corporation might be interested. Might give Rupert a call.

He has alligators biting at him from every conceivable corner! Talk is of him selling out, not buying in. 😳

Remember he sold out of SKT in 2013 for a cool $815m.

[Ogg]

Got filled at 18.3. I'm running out of pockets to fit all these Sky shares in!

[Ogg]

He has alligators biting at him from every conceivable corner! Talk is of him selling out, not buying in. 

Remember he sold out of SKT in 2013 for a cool $815m.

He own's 50% of Foxtel with Telstra. $2b of debt on the books I think.

Maybe he'll buy Sky NZ and load it up the debt, then flog it back off in 5 years time on the NZX.

[Not The Chosen One]

For the traders, notice how SKT gets bought up on NZX each morning but gets sold down in the afternoon after ASX has opened?

Wonder how many of the 12c shares went to Australian institutions.

Similar story today. Might top myself up later....

[jonu]

Similar story today. Might top myself up later....

Good day to be buying. Taking an expected breather alongside a down day on NZX. I have topped up at 18.2

[clip]

Good day to be buying. Taking an expected breather alongside a down day on NZX. I have topped up at 18.2

Agree, stupidly did a market buy yesterday then got called into a meeting so couldn't cancel it when didn't fill - ended up filling at 19.3 instead of 18.3 :/ Resold at 19.3 today and re-bought at 18.4 for a few more shares and less of a - on the portfolio, may re-add if there's a big dumping from the new 12c holders when those are received

[Ogg]

Don't you think it's odd that there is a password on the Infratil share offer the website?

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/ (https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/)

It's as if they're hiding something behind there and they don't want people to look yet :eek2:

[winner69]

Don't you think it's odd that there is a password on the Infratil share offer the website?

https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/ (https://www.infratilshareoffer.com/Country-validation/)

It's as if they're hiding something behind there and they don't want people to look yet :eek2:

Developers can’t find a Sky TV logo to put in the appropriate place

[Ogg]

Developers can’t find a Sky TV logo to put in the appropriate place

It can't be web maintenance, it's been like that for too long. It doesn't say down for web maintenance either.

All the other share offer websites normally have a landing page, and message saying come back on this date etc.

They're hiding something sensitive.

[mistaTea]

Interesting...

If you google "Sky Broadband NZ"...one of the hits takes you to this url: https://www.sky.co.nz/broadbandplans

You get the generic "this website is down" message, but then a link is available to visit the Sky GO website.

I hope Sky release their broadband offer ahead of schedule (they said it would be next year...). Not sure why it would need to take another 6+months to enter the market, given they are partnering with Feenix as a way to enter the market with the least amount of capital required.

Anyway, if they enter the market soon and introduce Sky GO as a standalone offer at the same time I think it would make for compelling bundles.

Satellite customers without fibre can be offered bundles too, sure.

But many of them can hand back their MySky and take a SkyGO-fibre bundle. Saves the customer money which is great. Sky will get lower Sky TV revenue per customer, but it is a less capital intensive model for them and at the end of the day they need more compelling bundles if they are to continue to grow.

I don't expect Sky to make much money from their broadband offer, but I do expect them to do well overall with the bundles.

And given I tend to take a very long term view with my investments, I would be gutted if someone came in now and picked the company off for $500M or less. On the balance of probabilities, Sky TV will be worth considerably more than that in time if they are able to execute the plan reasonably well. They don't have to get everything perfect...but if they get enough things right it should put to bed any notion that they are going to go bust in the next few years.

[Ogg]

Interesting...

If you google "Sky Broadband NZ"...one of the hits takes you to this url: https://www.sky.co.nz/broadbandplans

You get the generic "this website is down" message, but then a link is available to visit the Sky GO website.

They're probably already doing the 301 redirects to Vodafone, lol.

I'm organizing my play list for tomorrow. Will probably start with this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETxmCCsMoD0

[mistaTea]

They're probably already doing the 301 redirects to Vodafone, lol.



haha!

If you are proven correct, I would be tempted to meet up just so we can do this:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IGEgY1c9d9M

[Ogg]

lol for sure. Might watch that movie tonight.

https://www.lightbox.co.nz/movie/the-wolf-of-wall-street

[mistaTea]

Meant to add in my previous musings...

Sky might decide as a first step to only offer SkyGO as a standalone product if it is taken with a 12 month broadband plan...

That way yes they are still cannibalising the satellite base (and giving up the MySky cash cow...) but it is still worth it because they are getting additional broadband revenue.

Would be a smart way of transitioning I think...

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12339131

Hey, don't be too quick to let people go Vodafone!

You will need their skills when the Sky merger happens tomorrow! Ha!

[+++++]

Given them away today. I'll take them.

[Quantitative Easing]

Interesting...

And given I tend to take a very long term view with my investments, I would be gutted if someone came in now and picked the company off for $500M or less. On the balance of probabilities, Sky TV will be worth considerably more than that in time if they are able to execute the plan reasonably well. They don't have to get everything perfect...but if they get enough things right it should put to bed any notion that they are going to go bust in the next few years.

Sky might be a good company and all of that but the market has a very very very dim view of sky. On intrinsic value sky should be trading upwards of 60cents/share but the market has given it a f&8k all chance of surviving. Hence why the share price is in the gutter. Sky can't keep doing these highly diluted capital raises every time Martin wants to embark on a project. Sky will struggle or forever be a penny stock till it gets taken over. Sky will do far better either as a private company or a company backed by deep pockets.

[mistaTea]

Sky might be a good company and all of that but the market has a very very very dim view of sky. On intrinsic value sky should be trading upwards of 60cents/share but the market has given it a f&8k all chance of surviving. Hence why the share price is in the gutter. Sky can't keep doing these highly diluted capital raises every time Martin wants to embark on a project. Sky will struggle or forever be a penny stock till it gets taken over. Sky will do far better either as a private company or a company backed by deep pockets.

I think there is a lot of merit in the points you make.

To be fair to Martin though (and believe me, I am annoyed at how this CR has been executed for a number of reasons, including letting management who don't own stock come in and snap up new shares @12c...) he has to play the cards that he has been dealt.

Sky TV is a listed company, and the SP has fallen to levels that are just bonkers. That is despite stronger than expected progress in some key areas. All of the criticisms made of what Sky has done wrong and need to fix...he has agreed with and moved quickly to change.

He does have to be careful and cannot keep diluting existing shareholders etc. Absolutely, no argument there.

But apart to giving him crystal ball so he could have done this CR at a better time...overall, I can't really fault the strategy.

So I have to separate my disgust at elements of the current CR with my view of what the company will be worth over time given the strategy.

I do agree though that, ultimately, Sky would be better off if it was taken private.

[winner69]

The market sees SKT for what is is ....and even a capital raise won’t change that view in the short medium term.

[mistaTea]

The market sees SKT for what is is ....and even a capital raise won’t change that view in the short medium term.

It would be so much easier if the market realised that everybody else is wrong and I am right.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think there is a lot of merit in the points you make.

To be fair to Martin though (and believe me, I am annoyed at how this CR has been executed for a number of reasons, including letting management who don't own stock come in and snap up new shares @12c...) he has to play the cards that he has been dealt.

Sky TV is a listed company, and the SP has fallen to levels that are just bonkers. That is despite stronger than expected progress in some key areas. All of the criticisms made of what Sky has done wrong and need to fix...he has agreed with and moved quickly to change.

He does have to be careful and cannot keep diluting existing shareholders etc. Absolutely, no argument there.

But apart to giving him crystal ball so he could have done this CR at a better time...overall, I can't really fault the strategy.

So I have to separate my disgust at elements of the current CR with my view of what the company will be worth over time given the strategy.

I do agree though that, ultimately, Sky would be better off if it was taken private.

I hope you are right. Martin has been in charge for more than a year and made changes and even won the rugby rights but it has done nothing to reverse the downward trend of the share price. How are we certain that broadband and capital raise would change the trend? I thought winning rugby was the magic bullet but i was wrong...so i don't know if broadband and capital raise will be the magic bullet. Introducing the dividend would change sentiment a little but that is all. Martin needs to show that he cares about the shareholders.

[k14]

To be fair to Martin though (and believe me, I am annoyed at how this CR has been executed for a number of reasons, including letting management who don't own stock come in and snap up new shares @12c...) he has to play the cards that he has been dealt.
On this point, is it possible that some of the management team that bought shares have currently valid options which entitled them to buy shares in the cap raise?

[macduffy]

Introducing the dividend would change sentiment a little but that is all.

After raising new capital at 12c/share?

;)

[Quantitative Easing]

After raising new capital at 12c/share?

;)

Even if the dividend is 2 cents/share/year that is over 10% yield at current price.

[mistaTea]

Martin has been in charge for more than a year...

....Martin needs to show that he cares about the shareholders.

Given Martin has only been in the role for a short period of time, and given there are many challenges he is facing at once...as a shareholder with a long term view, I am still willing to cut him some slack.

Not a lot more slack, mind you. But given the downward trend of the business (so far as the markets are concerned) that he inherited...I don't think anyone should have been expecting a miracle 12 months after he started.

And it does not all fall on Martin. The Board is responsible for setting the strategy (Martin is only but one Board Member). Martin then has to execute that strategy.

But is is not like Martin is just sitting there all on his own and allowed to do whatever he wants whenever he wants. Without a doubt he is given a fair amount of leeway...but the big decisions are not just made by him.

[Entrep]

Fellet v Stewart

Stewart arrived in Feb 2019 the SKT SP was around 90c ($1 - 80c). Lowest to date is what, 15c? 83% drop from peak.

Fellet peak price was $6.30 or so, exited at 90c. 86% drop from peak.

It took Stewart 16 months to achieve what Fellet did in 16 years.

Who's the better CEO?

[mistaTea]

Fellet v Stewart

Stewart arrived in Feb 2019 the SKT SP was around 90c ($1 - 80c). Lowest to date is what, 15c? 83% drop from peak.

Fellet peak price was $6.30 or so, exited at 90c. 86% drop from peak.

It took Stewart 16 months to achieve what Fellet did in 16 years.

Who's the better CEO?

That has got to be the most ridiculous comparison I have ever heard. I like John Fellet just fine, but Jesus Christ that is ridiculous.

For the majority of John's time there was no fast internet and Sky happily ticked along as a monopoly. A comparison of this kind is not only unfair - it is asinine.

[Quantitative Easing]

Fellet v Stewart

Stewart arrived in Feb 2019 the SKT SP was around 90c ($1 - 80c). Lowest to date is what, 15c? 83% drop from peak.

Fellet peak price was $6.30 or so, exited at 90c. 86% drop from peak.



It took Stewart 16 months to achieve what Fellet did in 16 years.

Who's the better CEO?

Fellet peak was from $6:30 to $2odd which is around 69% drop...so actually better than Martin. Also back then there were the fat dividends. Fellet is a good businessman that ultimately didn't get his final wish with the Vodafone merger... Fellet could make anything into a cash cow...anything from the corner dairy to a big multinational.

[Quantitative Easing]

When a boy gives you that look

https://static2.stuff.co.nz/1411521960/259/10539259.jpg

[mistaTea]

Fellet peak was from $6:30 to $2odd which is around 69% drop...so actually better than Martin. Also back then there were the fat dividends. Fellet is a good businessman that ultimately didn't get his final wish with the Vodafone merger... Fellet could make anything into a cash cow...anything from the corner dairy to a big multinational.

It is entirely possible to make the case that John was the 'better CEO' than Martin.

But Entrep didn't make it.

[Entrep]

It is entirely possible to make the case that John was the 'better CEO' than Martin.

But Entrep didn't make it.

It's one way to make it. Shareholders should be concerned with their returns over a period of time - NOTHING else matters - global events, competition, etc.

It's clear on that basis who is ahead. Shareholders got better returns under Fellet. END

Edit: It's also highly unlikely that Fellet, someone who had guarded shareholder returns so carefully (as best he could, noting he was slow to react to OTT) over this entire career, would have allowed a CR at 12c to be required.

[mistaTea]

Edit: It's also highly unlikely that Fellet, someone who had guarded shareholder returns so carefully (as best he could, noting he was slow to react to OTT) over this entire career, would have allowed a CR at 12c to be required.

At least now you are pausing to think and provide a better attempt at making the case. Now we are getting somewhere.

I knew you had it in you mate!

John Fellet absolutely never would have let this happen in the way it has unfolded.

[Dlownz]

At least now you are pausing to think and provide a better attempt at making the case. Now we are getting somewhere.

I knew you had it in you mate!

John Fellet absolutely never would have let this happen in the way it has unfolded.

Although he didn't like how many people were taking up skygo and put the price up the 100 a month I do believe. Quite a few people liked paying the 50 a month when it came out

[mistaTea]

Although he didn't like how many people were taking up skygo and put the price up the 100 a month I do believe. Quite a few people liked paying the 50 a month when it came out

I think you mean FANPASS. Yes, to protect his high margin satellite base he jacked the pay as you go monthly sub to $100 a month.

That was also asinine.

Martin sorted that out and made the pricing what it should have been all along.

So maybe if I just use that single fact I can make the case that MARTIN IS THE BETTER CEO! END.

[Entrep]

I think you mean FANPASS. Yes, to protect his high margin satellite base he jacked the pay as you go monthly sub to $100 a month.

That was also asinine.

Martin sorted that out and made the pricing what it should have been all along.

So maybe if I just use that single fact I can make the case that MARTIN IS THE BETTER CEO! END.

Better CEO for customer or shareholders, sir?

[Quantitative Easing]

I think you mean FANPASS. Yes, to protect his high margin satellite base he jacked the pay as you go monthly sub to $100 a month.

That was also asinine.

Martin sorted that out and made the pricing what it should have been all along.

So maybe if I just use that single fact I can make the case that MARTIN IS THE BETTER CEO! END.

Key to being a good CEO is to seem like that you care about the customer but in actual fact all you are there to do is to gouge the customer, maximise profits and line the pocket of your shareholders. Martin cares about the customer but not sure about maximising shareholder pockets. One fault of John was that he was not subtle in his gouging...Every customer knew when their pants were down.

[mistaTea]

Better CEO for customer or shareholders, sir?

LOL.

In a competitive market place a good CEO needs to be good to their customers AND maximise shareholder wealth, given the competition. It is a difficult job.

Most of John's tenure was when Sky was a monopoly. He absolutely maximised shareholder wealth fully at the expense of the customer - he didn't even pretend not to. And he was able to do this because there was no real alternative for most people who wanted to enjoy premium TV.

If you just wanted to watch Sport in HD you had to pay $105/month if you wanted MySky as the entry package was Basic at $50 with a $10HD ticket. He could charge that and sneer as people just had to cough up.

As soon as Netflix and other competitors started taking advantage of fast internet he was absolutely f!ck3d. His subs began falling through the roof and he kept trying to gouge as much as he could to 'maximise shareholder wealth'. But it was not something that could continue in this new competitive environment.

The point I am really trying to make is that I just don't think one can cherry pick a few facts here and there to make the case that John was 'better' than Martin. Or that Martin is 'better' that John for that matter.

If Martin had the luxury of operating in a monopoly space I am sure he would have no qualms charging whatever he wanted to maximise our dividends. But he is operating in a completely different landscape to what John faced most of his career and, on balance, my opinion is that he is not doing a terrible job.

[mistaTea]

Hey Ogg,

My wife said you better be right about the takeover by Infratil tomorrow...

If not, she demands that you change your handle from Ogg to Egg.

Haha! I almost shat when she dropped that clanger!

[Ogg]

Hey Ogg,

My wife said you better be right about the takeover by Infratil tomorrow...

If not, she demands that you change your handle from Ogg to Egg.

Haha! I almost shat when she dropped that clanger!

Yes. My reputation is on the line tomorrow. We will find out weather I'm the real deal or just another loser spewing BS on a public stock forum.

If there is not a take over offer by close of trade tomorrow, I vouch to never to return to this thread.

Today's announcement by Vodafone that a restructure is underway is just another confirmation of my thesis. A thesis I have built up since my first entry into Sky on the 23rd of March.

I have accumulated a position of ~850,000 shares at ~15c average. The exact amount will be confirmed tomorrow when the results of the retail placement is announced.

There were multiple "markers" about the outcome of this stock. All information was publicly available and I have posted all my evidence. The unfortunately situation is that sophisticated investors were able to circumnavigate existing retail holders and take control of stock for the benefit of themselves and their firms. The stock market is "rigged" against the small investor. It takes a "Michael Burry" type commitment if you want to have a fair chance of betting them. Even then, you need a bit of luck.

I've enjoyed posting here and reading about what others have said.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

I'll finish with a speech from Henry V:

"Tomorrow is St Crispin's Day"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-yZNMWFqvM

[ados_nz]

Yes. My reputation is on the line tomorrow. We will find out weather I'm the real deal or just another loser spewing BS on a public stock forum.

If there is not a take over offer by close of trade tomorrow, I vouch to never to return to this thread.

Today's announcement by Vodafone that a restructure is underway is just another confirmation of my thesis. A thesis I have built up since my first entry into Sky on the 23rd of March.

I have accumulated a position of ~850,000 shares at ~15c average. The exact amount will be confirmed tomorrow when the results of the retail placement is announced.

There were multiple "markers" about the outcome of this stock. All information was publicly available and I have posted all my evidence. The unfortunately situation is that sophisticated investors were able to circumnavigate existing retail holders and take control of stock for the benefit of themselves and their firms. The stock market is "rigged" against the small investor. It takes a "Michael Burry" type commitment if you want to have a fair chance of betting them. Even then, you need a bit of luck.

I've enjoyed posting here and reading about what others have said.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

I'll finish with a speech from Henry V:

"Tomorrow is St Crispin's Day"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-yZNMWFqvM

God I thought this was all a bit of a laugh/troll . . . If I realised the conspiracy was this serious I would have thrown more than 20k in 🤨

[mistaTea]

Yes. My reputation is on the line tomorrow. We will find out weather I'm the real deal or just another loser spewing BS on a public stock forum.

If there is not a take over offer by close of trade tomorrow, I vouch to never to return to this thread.

Today's announcement by Vodafone that a restructure is underway is just another confirmation of my thesis. A thesis I have built up since my first entry into Sky on the 23rd of March.

I have accumulated a position of ~850,000 shares at ~15c average. The exact amount will be confirmed tomorrow when the results of the retail placement is announced.

There were multiple "markers" about the outcome of this stock. All information was publicly available and I have posted all my evidence. The unfortunately situation is that sophisticated investors were able to circumnavigate existing retail holders and take control of stock for the benefit of themselves and their firms. The stock market is "rigged" against the small investor. It takes a "Michael Burry" type commitment if you want to have a fair chance of betting them. Even then, you need a bit of luck.

I've enjoyed posting here and reading about what others have said.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

I'll finish with a speech from Henry V:

"Tomorrow is St Crispin's Day"



Hopefully it doesn't end more like this, Gilderoy:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MBO4haWlOFQ

[mikeybycrikey]

Yes. My reputation is on the line tomorrow. We will find out weather I'm the real deal or just another loser spewing BS on a public stock forum.


Thanks for your work and enthusiasm here. It has been a fun and interesting ride the past few days, although I haven’t paid very close attention to this thread. Personally I don’t think a takeover is likely, but it’s certainly possible. And with the way 2020 has gone, anything is possible right now. GLTAH.

[mistaTea]

Thanks for your work and enthusiasm here. It has been a fun and interesting ride the past few days, although I haven’t paid very close attention to this thread. Personally I don’t think a takeover is likely, but it’s certainly possible. And with the way 2020 has gone, anything is possible right now. GLTAH.

No need for anyone to leave the forum regardless of what does or doesn’t happen tomorrow.

It has been a lively discussion and I have thoroughly enjoyed it.

Life is too short to be too serious. So let’s just take tomorrow as it comes!

[dompf]

Yes. My reputation is on the line tomorrow. We will find out weather I'm the real deal or just another loser spewing BS on a public stock forum.

If there is not a take over offer by close of trade tomorrow, I vouch to never to return to this thread.

Today's announcement by Vodafone that a restructure is underway is just another confirmation of my thesis. A thesis I have built up since my first entry into Sky on the 23rd of March.

I have accumulated a position of ~850,000 shares at ~15c average. The exact amount will be confirmed tomorrow when the results of the retail placement is announced.

There were multiple "markers" about the outcome of this stock. All information was publicly available and I have posted all my evidence. The unfortunately situation is that sophisticated investors were able to circumnavigate existing retail holders and take control of stock for the benefit of themselves and their firms. The stock market is "rigged" against the small investor. It takes a "Michael Burry" type commitment if you want to have a fair chance of betting them. Even then, you need a bit of luck.

I've enjoyed posting here and reading about what others have said.

Best of luck to everyone tomorrow.

I'll finish with a speech from Henry V:

"Tomorrow is St Crispin's Day"



Hey Ogg, even if it doesnt materialise; your insights are well thought out, i for one wouldn't think any less of your posts. Its been enjoyable to say the least the optimism in this thread.

I am still upbeat about the tired old SkyTV because of management buying in at market and live sport with a crowd - first in the world.

Given take up offers at 12c we may see some shares get sold off pretty quick for a slice of profit people that own share havent ever encountered lol.

but I do believe Sky is at a rock bottom price and im happy to see the old dog for what it is; and old monopoly player hopefully with a few more tricks in its deck.

best of luck to all we will see what the end of the week brings

[Dlownz]

Average buy in of 15 cents and even at 19 yourve made good money. Nothing to be worried about. My average pending will hopefully be about the same 15.

[mistaTea]

Ok I don't want to be alarmist here...but Ogg, I need your keen eyes.

So I searched Sky Broadband NZ again...and saw the same 'hit' come up as before. I clicked on the link and this time check what popped up...

https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/24003/39233/eligible-plans.pdf

It was a pdf instead...referring to deals with...VODAFONE!

Something is bloody going on here!

[ba9]

Ok I don't want to be alarmist here...but Ogg, I need your keen eyes. So I searched Sky Broadband NZ again...and saw the same 'hit' come up as before. I clicked on the link and this time check what popped up... https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/24003/39233/eligible-plans.pdf It was a pdf instead...referring to deals with...VODAFONE! Something is bloody going on here! Looks like the pdf dates back to 2015 December.

[mistaTea]

Looks like the pdf dates back to 2015 December.

It definitely looks old (even has the old Sky branding)...but why would this suddenly pop up when the url was different before?

Why are they even playing around with an old Vodafone deal pdf while they are doing whatever they are doing with the website?

It is a little strange...

[Quantitative Easing]

Ok I don't want to be alarmist here...but Ogg, I need your keen eyes.

So I searched Sky Broadband NZ again...and saw the same 'hit' come up as before. I clicked on the link and this time check what popped up...

https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/24003/39233/eligible-plans.pdf

It was a pdf instead...referring to deals with...VODAFONE!

Something is bloody going on here!

Has this always popped up when you searched sky broadband?

[mistaTea]

Has this always popped up when you searched sky broadband?

No, earlier today a webpage popped up when I clicked on the same search result. It just said the webpage was down for maintenance and had all these links to SkyGo... (not the main sky website...but Sky GO!). So I thought "Aha! They are going to launch bundles of fibre and Sky GO as a standalone!".

That was earlier today.

I go back and click on the same search result tonight...and this old pdf pops up instead describing a broadband and mobile deal they had with Vodafone a few years back...

Just seems very very bizarre.

[Quantitative Easing]

No, earlier today a webpage popped up when I clicked on the same search result. It just said the webpage was down for maintenance and had all these links to SkyGo... (not the main sky website...but Sky GO!). So I thought "Aha! They are going to launch bundles of fibre and Sky GO as a standalone!".

That was earlier today.

I go back and click on the same search result tonight...and this old pdf pops up instead describing a broadband and mobile deal they had with Vodafone a few years back...

Just seems very very bizarre.

Now the link is dud again...something is happening.

[mistaTea]

Now the link is dud again...something is happening.

still works for me?

[Quantitative Easing]

1) Infratil share offer requiring password
2) Sky broadband plans with Vodafone. Then soon it gets taken dowm...

Surely all this can't be a coincidence. Something is brewing out there.

[mistaTea]

And now HotCopper has picked up on the rumour. Someone on there reading our posts!

[mistaTea]

Now just remember everyone...if IFT strike tomorrow...

I was the first one who even suggested that their reason for doing a CR was to purchase Sky.

You can go back and check!

[mistaTea]

My reaction to Ogg if today is indeed the day.

https://media1.giphy.com/media/rNgT8P8pL3dn2/giphy.gif