SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

MistaTea this time next month...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xy6IC_LZevE

[tim23]

Surely the cost of delivering the service is not really relevant it will be virtually the same as if you had 100 subs or 100,000.Only extra cost would be the decoder and sat dish,but in tims case he already has the deoder and dish.
So yes if they can save an existing sub it makes a lot of sense.

Quite right - by the way my saving was $40 per month, pretty happy with that!

[RTM]

Market capitalisation is the relevant factor in order to compare apples with apples. And before the Capital Raise sky tv’s market cap dropped to about $82M during the lockdown (about 18 or 19 cents per share as it happens due to there only being 436M shares outstanding at that time).

Sky’s market value right now is about three times that all time low. Because there are 1.74B shares outstanding the price as expressed per share is lower than before but only a complete jackass would think that is relevant.

Have a great day ��

I have removed several buy orders as I chickened out ahead of the sinking price.
I now wonder whether its heading to the lockdown figure.....$82M....or maybe 20 or 30 % more.
Jeeze....5-7 cents by my calcs. Is that crazy ? Probably...I'll go finish the lawns.
Maybe this doesn't allow for the cash raise ?
I do feel as tho I might be going to be characterised in the same way as Winner69 here.

[clip]

Surely the cost of delivering the service is not really relevant it will be virtually the same as if you had 100 subs or 100,000.Only extra cost would be the decoder and sat dish,but in tims case he already has the deoder and dish.
So yes if they can save an existing sub it makes a lot of sense.

I see your point - a cheaper sub is better than no sub. But if they have 100,000 subs and they give all of them a $40 per month discount (the discount tim23 got) then that is a $48,000,000 hit per year to the bottom line. Pretty significant?

[Quantitative Easing]

Sky needs to start producing NZ shows for it's Neon service, otherwise that will struggle to gain traction if HBO and co decide to go to the market directly. Start producing and streaming shows like Outrageous Fortune, Bro Town, Jono & Ben and Block and then the sheep will start subscribing to it. That is the gap in the market. We can never compete with Netflix and Amazon...

[mistaTea]

MistaTea this time next month...



I wasn't planning to buy any more Sky for a while, but God help me if this keeps going down I might just have to...

[GR8DAY]

We're in "take-over" territory now that's for sure!!

[Ogg]

I wasn't planning to buy any more Sky for a while, but God help me if this keeps going down I might just have to...

Will the white knight in black come and save us?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GpUst3N3uEY

[Akane]

Sky needs to start producing NZ shows for it's Neon service, otherwise that will struggle to gain traction if HBO and co decide to go to the market directly. Start producing and streaming shows like Outrageous Fortune, Bro Town, Jono & Ben and Block and then the sheep will start subscribing to it. That is the gap in the market. We can never compete with Netflix and Amazon...

I'm not sure about that, the shows that you've listed were free to air shows, and that's what people will have ingrained in their minds, and will refuse to pay to watch what was once "free". Don't forget, us kiwis are (relatively) tight asses ;)

[mistaTea]

Will the white knight in black come and save us?



So long as it isn't...The Man in Black...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OZszDYi5FCE

[Quantitative Easing]

We're in "take-over" territory now that's for sure!!

Yup this will either die or be taken over. I still believe it's too valuable to let die, especially since our beloved All Blacks are on Sky.

[Quantitative Easing]

There is a strong correlation between Hotcopper and the share price. As soon as there was a cry for help on Hotcopper, asking for a "white knight' the share price capitulated. Likewise, when there was a comment saying 'takeover imminent' the share price rallied. Don't take hotcopper lightly, it will be at your own cost.

[winner69]

I have removed several buy orders as I chickened out ahead of the sinking price.
I now wonder whether its heading to the lockdown figure.....$82M....or maybe 20 or 30 % more.
Jeeze....5-7 cents by my calcs. Is that crazy ? Probably...I'll go finish the lawns.
Maybe this doesn't allow for the cash raise ?
I do feel as tho I might be going to be characterised in the same way as Winner69 here.

Yep rtm ..we both jackasses

But Ogg says Enterprise Value today is about $234m (market cap $223m plus net debt $11m)

Mistatea keeps telling us market cap dropped to $82m in April ...add $160m net debt (as per SKT preso) gives EV of $242m

So market valuing SKT on a EV basis much the same as prior to the cap raise ...an apples to apples basis too ....not surprising?

Market obviously doesn’t think any takeover likely ...and also seems to think they will to struggle on ... (maybe to their eventual demise)

Hope we not jackasses again rtm...but shareprice shouldn’t fall another 20% ....should it

[winner69]

Will the white knight in black come and save us?
]

Don’t think black cranes save things ....often deathly signs associated with black cranes

[biker]

Maybe we need an NZX price enquiry to settle the startled horses

[Entrep]

Yep rtm ..we both jackasses

But Ogg says Enterprise Value today is about $234m (market cap $223m plus net debt $11m)

Mistatea keeps telling us market cap dropped to $82m in April ...add $160m net debt (as per SKT preso) gives EV of $242m

Thanks - that is what I was trying to work out. So market effectively saying SKY $10M more valuable having done the raise.

In turn that means it hasn't really bounced like the rest of the market has, and could be due to?

No orders just following out of interest

[bull....]

way over valued at 223 m market cap. expecting it to drift to penny dreadful status soon

[Ogg]

Thanks - that is what I was trying to work out. So market effectively saying SKY $10M more valuable having done the raise.

In turn that means it hasn't really bounced like the rest of the market has, and could be due to?

No orders just following out of interest

Take into account:

1) That $87m valuation was in March. At the depths of the stock market plunge.
2) Having no debt is better than having debt from an EV assessment.
3) The company has likely made $50m+ since those numbers were released.

Market price today is effectively at all time low.

[Entrep]

way over valued at 223 m market cap. expecting it to drift to penny dreadful status soon

The trend is absolutely HORRENDOUS, but

- entrenched in about 500K kiwi homes
- very strong revenue and cashflow still
- OSB is worth something (can't remember what they paid for) and nothing like it in NZ

[Ogg]

The trend is absolutely HORRENDOUS, but

- entrenched in about 500K kiwi homes
- very strong revenue and cashflow still
- OSB is worth something (can't remember what they paid for) and nothing like it in NZ

The bull case has been spammed all over this thread.

The bear case is that Sky is obsolete.

For every seller there is a buyer.

Massive bets have taken place over the last few months.

Outcome is not clear.

Hence we're at maximum uncertainty.

"Place your bets..."

[Sideshow Bob]

Sharsies crowd saying SKT not worth it at any price. But BGI is still worth 9c+.....

[Balance]

Implying that the drop from $7 to 13c isn't capitulation enough.


Sharsies crowd saying SKT not worth it at any price. But BGI is still worth 9c+.....

Best indication you are ever going to get that capitulation is well and truly underway.

[Ogg]

Sharsies crowd saying SKT not worth it at any price.

Sharsies telling users to buy Me Today instead.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Beagle]

Here''s a readable version of Beagle chart https://cln.sh/UtcAWw

Any way you look at it the trend is definitely NOT your friend :eek2:

[airedale]

The words "falling knife" come to mind. There will be a time to buy more but it is not today.

[Ogg]

Who put that large order on at 12.7!!! I was waiting at 12.6 and was about to get filled!

[RTM]

Who put that large order on at 12.7!!! I was waiting at 12.6 and was about to get filled!

Are you happy or sad that you missed out ?

[Ogg]

Are you happy or sad that you missed out ?

Happy, as this won't be happening next week...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BAkNzYalx8I

[dompf]

225mil cap and dropping given the raise @157m Sky is now worth 70mil maybe and dropping. This share has been clubbed to death. Maybe it’s for the best it all ends & goes private.

I’m a holder of this train but I’m not that worried; if it falls off a cliff NZ public will miss it.

[Shareguy]

At these prices I see value, plus a great product that has a very loyal base not just in sports. If the costs can be managed accordingly then the share price will rise. I have heard good things from people who work there regarding the new ceo. So I’m in.

[Dlownz]

Ask around. Alot of people have the new neon and love it. This will grow. I topped up more today. Sorry ogg Beat you too it 😜

[whoknows]

The trend is absolutely HORRENDOUS, but

- entrenched in about 500K kiwi homes
- very strong revenue and cashflow still
- OSB is worth something (can't remember what they paid for) and nothing like it in NZ

Will they still have OSB for much longer? My guess is yes, no doubt corona virus put stop to this plan. Isn't OSB really now one of SKT's key assets?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117832627/sky-tv-consults-outdoor-broadcasting-staff-on-osb-sale-proposal

[bulltrap]

Who put that large order on at 12.7!!! I was waiting at 12.6 and was about to get filled!

Not a large order, but guilty as charged... tried to take a bite there at 12.7 and only got a nibble. Market was already on the way up.

[n908671]

Ask around. Alot of people have the new neon and love it. This will grow. I topped up more today. Sorry ogg Beat you too it 

I'm not a neon/lightbox subscriber but have been impressed with the new ads. Quite a few good shows and movies being advertised and flicks seems to be reviewing a lot of them too.

Aside from sports the other advantage they seem to have over netflix is more recent movies.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Never own shares in a downtrend....that said I added this to my watchlist today as at some stage the downtrend might end and it could be worth a punt once we see a clean break back above the 30 day moving average, (not in any circumstances before this as far as I am concerned), or seeing as the downtrend is so firmly entrenched I might wait for a clean break above the black line, the 100 day MA, if that ever happens ?

Plenty of systemic flaws with management's thinking...still thinking that Sport is the panacea to most of their woes. Maybe one day they will wake up and realise that there's hundreds of thousands of subscribers who couldn't care less about sport and then they can stop throwing absolutely ludicrous amounts of money at sport ?

11829


Sport is SkyTVs only original content - everything else is cheap filler trash except for HBO content, which sky lose from next year.

[Ogg]

Sport is SkyTVs only original content - everything else is cheap filler trash except for HBO content, which sky lose from next year.

1 million customers are happy paying for filler trash.

Why would HBO pull the content? What a pain trying to resign those 1m customers again.

AT&T generates $25b in free cash flow each year. Why not just buy the company for USD $250m or just 1% of their yearly cash flow. They would make their money back in 2 years anyway.

Please go and post your comments on the Sharesies Facebook forum. I need to buy more stock.

[nztx]

Not a large order, but guilty as charged... tried to take a bite there at 12.7 and only got a nibble. Market was already on the way up.

was just a little bit lower than that too .. then someone stuck the boot in ..

maybe next week..

[Ogg]

I'm seeing Neon ads everywhere at the moment. Marketing spend must be going through the roof!

https://i.imgur.com/MWVt5uz.jpg

https://www.metservice.com/ (https://www.metservice.com/national)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

1 million customers are happy paying for filler trash.

Why would HBO pull the content? What a pain trying to resign those 1m customers again.

AT&T generates $25b in free cash flow each year. Why not just buy the company for USD $250m or just 1% of their yearly cash flow. They would make their money back in 2 years anyway.

Please go and post your comments on the Sharesies Facebook forum. I need to buy more stock.

its cute you think I’m some sort of newbie investor who belongs to sharesies, rather than someone whose full time job for over a decade has been analysing global tech & media firms.

but by all means, continue pumping your money into a company that is bleeding high margin satellite customers with an ARPU of $80+ and adding low margin streaming customers with an ARPU under $20. Also not sure how you think AT&T would get there money back in 2 years when sky itself is guiding for only $5-$15 million in net income in 2021.

[mistaTea]

its cute you think I’m some sort of newbie investor who belongs to sharesies, rather than someone whose full time job for over a decade has been analysing global tech & media firms.

but by all means, continue pumping your money into a company that is bleeding high margin satellite customers with an ARPU of $80+ and adding low margin streaming customers with an ARPU under $20. Also not sure how you think AT&T would get there money back in 2 years when sky itself is guiding for only $5-$15 million in net income in 2021.

You almost sounded like you knew what you were talking about until that last sentence of yours.

Don’t worry - most newbies struggle to read Sky TV financial statements.

GAAP earnings will probably end up sitting somewhere between $20-$25M as COVID has not hit the company as hard as expected when they had that revised guidance.

But that actually means that the company generated closer to $60M - $70M of underlying ‘Owner Earnings’.

Ogg is probably referring to EBITDA - not a metric I particularly like, but one that is commonly used in the business world. In that respect, his claim is absolutely correct.

[Ogg]

its cute you think I’m some sort of newbie investor who belongs to sharesies, rather than someone whose full time job for over a decade has been analysing global tech & media firms.

but by all means, continue pumping your money into a company that is bleeding high margin satellite customers with an ARPU of $80+ and adding low margin streaming customers with an ARPU under $20. Also not sure how you think AT&T would get there money back in 2 years when sky itself is guiding for only $5-$15 million in net income in 2021.

Would be less than 2 years, more likely 18 months once you've stripped out all the costs and done a restructure. Happy to take you through the math.

Sky isn't "bleeding". The satellite business remains robust. Lower ARPU streaming customers are an addition to the business, not a replacement.

This is a deep value play for experienced investors. Noobs should stick with Netflix.

[Stranger_Danger]

Would be less than 2 years, more likely 18 months once you've stripped out all the costs and done a restructure. Happy to take you through the math.

Sky isn't "bleeding". The satellite business remains robust. Lower ARPU streaming customers are an addition to the business, not a replacement.

This is a deep value play for experienced investors. Noobs should stick with Netflix.

I am an experienced deep value investor and this is a classic, dictionary definition, value trap.

It did nothing but go down during an easy money boom when an idiot could make money. We then had the crash, and any "value" attributes did not turn out to be defensive and it fell even more than the expensive growth stocks. Now we're having a recovery, and it isn't bouncing at all.

Three different investing environments. Same result. Either the market has got the Sky TV pricing wrong in one or more of those environments and this really is the biggest bargain out there, or alternatively, the business model of Sky TV is being (has been?) disintermediated and is heading for the knackers yard, looking perpetually cheap the whole way there.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You almost sounded like you knew what you were talking about until that last sentence of yours.

Don’t worry - most newbies struggle to read Sky TV financial statements.

GAAP earnings will probably end up sitting somewhere between $20-$25M as COVID has not hit the company as hard as expected when they had that revised guidance.

But that actually means that the company generated closer to $60M - $70M of underlying ‘Owner Earnings’.

Ogg is probably referring to EBITDA - not a metric I particularly like, but one that is commonly used in the business world. In that respect, his claim is absolutely correct.

The “ITDA” costs in EBITDA is not free money, they are mostly real cash costs that need to be paid either immediately (Interest & Taxes) or at some future point (depreciation is allowed for a reason, normally that is against items that eventually need to be replaced). Suggesting a potential buyer gets EBITDA as immediate cashflow return is entirely disingenuous. Sky management itself is only targeting a 7-10% of revenue as a long term FCF target, alongside their structural business realignment to a lower revenue/lower cost model.

i think SKYs best move would be unloading the still currently profitable satellite customer base and infrastructure onto a private equity firm with a long term discounted supply deal, leaving a lean high growth streaming only business with exclusive sport rights that would be a very attractive investment.

[Ogg]

I am an experienced deep value investor and this is a classic, dictionary definition, value trap.

It did nothing but go down during an easy money boom when an idiot could make money. We then had the crash, and any "value" attributes did not turn out to be defensive and it fell even more than the expensive growth stocks. Now we're having a recovery, and it isn't bouncing at all.

Three different investing environments. Same result. Either the market has got the Sky TV pricing wrong in one or more of those environments and this really is the biggest bargain out there, or alternatively, the business model of Sky TV is being (has been?) disintermediated and is heading for the knackers yard, looking perpetually cheap the whole way there.

Every deep value play looks like a value trap!

The market was WRONG, when the stock was trading at the $6 range from 2012-2016. I was one of the biggest skeptics on Sky, I knew it was over valued and was going down. I remember when Murdoch offloaded his holdings in 2013, I knew that was the right move. I wouldn't touch Sky with a 10 foot barge pole back then!

The market was RIGHT, when the stock dropped from 2016-2019. Reality finally caught up with Sky after so long. Ma and Pa investors got wiped out. Overseas hedge funds run by clueless baby boomers took the hit! I was surprised it took so long for it to drop, about fricken time.

However, the market is WRONG to price the stock at an EV of ~$250m, with the assumption that the businesses is obsolete and going bankrupt like Block Buster video. It isn't and that's the play. Markets overshoot and undershoot all the time. The $150m placement is the turning point for this stock. Once the registry tightens and results are released this month, they will show a turnaround story with a clean balance sheet, and this will look like the cheapest stock on the ASX/NZX.

Show me a better value play then this?

[Ogg]

i think SKYs best move would be unloading the still currently profitable satellite customer base and infrastructure onto a private equity firm with a long term discounted supply deal, leaving a lean high growth streaming only business with exclusive sport rights that would be a very attractive investment.

You're basically saying that Sky:

1) Has a highly valuable and profitable mature business and;
2) Has an additional high growth business that is attractive.

"Mr Market" is offering it for sale for $225m today, and you're saying "no thanks, I've got something better"?

[Dlownz]

Every deep value play looks like a value trap!
The market was WRONG, when the stock was trading at the $6 range from 2012-2016. I was one of the biggest skeptics on Sky, I knew it was over valued and was going down. I remember when Murdoch offloaded his holdings in 2013, I knew that was the right move. I wouldn't touch Sky with a 10 foot barge pole back then!

The market was RIGHT, when the stock dropped from 2016-2019. Reality finally caught up with Sky after so long. Ma and Pa investors got wiped out. Overseas hedge funds run by clueless baby boomers took the hit! I was surprised it took so long for it to drop, about fricken time.

However, the market is WRONG to price the stock at an EV of ~$250m, with the assumption that the businesses is obsolete and going bankrupt like Block Buster video. It isn't and that's the play. Markets overshoot and undershoot all the time. The $150m placement is the turning point for this stock. Once the registry tightens and results are released this month, they will show a turnaround story with a clean balance sheet, and this will look like the cheapest stock on the ASX/NZX.

Show me a better value play then this?

[QUOTE=Ogg;833309]Every deep value play looks like a value trap!

I agree. I hated sky. Overpriced crap with a skygo service which was buggy as hell.
I have seen them turn the corner and more and more people are now happy with what they have from them. Rather than 1 service (sky satellite) we now have choice. Which is what everyone was asking for. Everyone seems to be getting what they want. People that want satellite get everyone at there disposal. People that want just movies and TV get neon. And those that just want sport get sport. Yes it's lower value but that what people want. Sky's finally giving people choices and that's all people asked for.
The rugby rights give sky time to transform before they have to negotiate the next phase. Maybe spark will gain other sports but at what cost yo spark. How many subscribers just spark sport have?

[Bjauck]

[QUOTE=Ogg;833309]Every deep value play looks like a value trap!

I agree. I hated sky. Overpriced crap with a skygo service which was buggy as hell.
I have seen them turn the corner and more and more people are now happy with what they have from them. Rather than 1 service (sky satellite) we now have choice. Which is what everyone was asking for. Everyone seems to be getting what they want. People that want satellite get everyone at there disposal. People that want just movies and TV get neon. And those that just want sport get sport. Yes it's lower value but that what people want. Sky's finally giving people choices and that's all people asked for.
The rugby rights give sky time to transform before they have to negotiate the next phase. Maybe spark will gain other sports but at what cost yo spark. How many subscribers just spark sport have?
Sky Go is a lot better than it used to be. The expanded selection of live channels with an demand catalogue and ability to cast to a big screen make it a handy app.

[mistaTea]

Sky Go is a lot better than it used to be. The expanded selection of live channels with an demand catalogue and ability to cast to a big screen make it a handy app.

Yes, and Sky are going to make it a stand-alone product. Sky GO is very very good now. Better usability, and much more stable than it was in the past.

So a cheaper option for those who want to stream traditional Sky channels, without having to pay for a MySky box. Cheaper for Sky, cheaper for the customer.

Would be a great addition to a broadband bundle too.

And still remains a nice ‘freebie’ for those who choose to consume Sky via satellite, whatever their reasons may be for not switching to full streaming.

[Bjauck]

Yes, and Sky are going to make it a stand-alone product. Sky GO is very very good now. Better usability, and much more stable than it was in the past.

So a cheaper option for those who want to stream traditional Sky channels, without having to pay for a MySky box. Cheaper for Sky, cheaper for the customer.

Would be a great addition to a broadband bundle too.

And still remains a nice ‘freebie’ for those who choose to consume Sky via satellite, whatever their reasons may be for not switching to full streaming.
That would be a great development. British Sky had the ability to subscribe to various internet-only packages years ago.

There are fewer atmospheric brown and black-outs with the SkyGo internet service compared to the satellite service. Also you can continue to watch on your gadget during a power cut (via 4g)

[mistaTea]

That would be a great development. British Sky had the ability to subscribe to various internet-only packages years ago.

There are fewer atmospheric brown and black-outs with the SkyGo internet service compared to the satellite service. Also you can continue to watch on your gadget during a power cut (via 4g)

Yes it is inevitable that it becomes a standalone offering.

They can also revamp their streaming packages. No need to force someone to take Sky Starter as an entry package with this distribution model because they don’t have the costs of sending out a tech to get the customer set up.

If someone just wants Sky Entertainment channels, for example, give it to them.

Better yet, completely redesign the steaming channel bundles so they meet market demand.

Caveat: Sky do have to negotiate with content partners when redesigning bundles. It’s not all in Sky’s control in terms of how things are packaged up. But it can be done.

[winner69]

Doesn’t make much of a return on equity or invested capital
L.

No wonder share price is where it is

[Ogg]

Doesn’t make much of a return on equity or invested capital
L.

No wonder share price is where it is

Do you want to take this one mista or shall I? :cool:

[Ogg]

Doesn’t make much of a return on equity or invested capital
L.

No wonder share price is where it is

ROE ins't an appropriate valuation metric given the recent write down of goodwill and the large equity placement. The EOY accounts should provide a better picture. However, you need to take into account there are two businesses. A mature satellite business and a growing streaming business. Both of these are being reported together, giving you a mixed result, so you need to be careful when reading the numbers.

What you're really saying is how profitable is Sky?



The satellite business was once very profitable is now just somewhat profitable.



The streaming business is currently not very profitable but over time it maybe very profitable.


As a user above suggested, it maybe appropriate at some stage to either divest or separate the two businesses out, making it easier for investors to calculate an appropriate valuation. A more likely outcome is that a merger or takeover will happen and the two businesses will be broken out into subsidiaries.

At the end of the day, it's always hard to evaluate any "weightless" business. It would be great if we could count how many "railroad carts, factories, and arable hectares" the business had. The one asset that Sky does have, is it's market position in New Zealand, which remarkably, over the many years has been shaken, but remains intact. This asset will likely continue to give a favorable return to shareholders over the long term and thus provide a good ROE.

[Leftfield]

ROE ins't an appropriate valuation metric .....
What you're really saying is how profitable is Sky....
....This asset will likely continue to give a favorable return to shareholders over the long term and thus provide a good ROE.

Can you please provide evidence to support what your 'continued favourable return to shareholders' has been (say) over the last 5 years?

Just curious. Thanks.

[winner69]

Thanks Ogg ...You make it sound like it’s going be years before any decent profit (or ROE). If F20 $20m to $25m and F21 indicative $5m to $15m is any indication then it’s probably F24 before anything decent (hopefully)

[Snow Leopard]

...Glad you answered instead of that loser mate of yours ....seems he’s a few fries short of a Happy Meal

:t_up: :t_up: :t_up: :t_up: :t_up:

[Dlownz]

Subscriber satellite numbers as at April 30 were 586000 and streaming was 415000
Streaming doesn't break down the seperation between sky sport and neon.
What will be interesting to see is how many people stay with neon now they have to pay for it. Sky had only lost a satellite base of 1% during covid which is very low concidering but have gained streaming customers. What would be good to see with the result in August will be holding onto streaming customers or even increasing the base But going from free to $10 with spark will be a test.
So off simple calculations.
Satellite rev is $576mil
Streaming based off $10 a month is 50mill
Is that right?
Also in the pipeline is 80-90 mil in savings.
Get this conversation off the mud slinging. Let's leave that to the politicians.
Talk numbers and estimates. 😊

[Ogg]

Can you please provide evidence to support what your 'continued favourable return to shareholders' has been (say) over the last 5 years?

Just curious. Thanks.

It's always been a cash cow. Millions in dividends were paid out. It provided a favourable return after the GFC when finance companies and term deposits fell out of favour. Ma and Pa investors poured millions into the company as they trusted the name and liked the regular dividend payments. As a result the valuation became stretched.

The problem is that the company took on debt to invest in the business while at the same time paid out earnings. During this time new technology and competitors entered the market. The long term outlook changed and the current equity holders were wiped out.

The company has since been recapitalised and enough time has past that the long term outlook is more clear. The doomsday Blockbuster scenario can be ruled out. Sky is still relevant. The question is what valuation should be placed on it. Some say zero, the market says $230m, I say about $550m, others say more, Infratil or Comcast maybe even more than that. That's what I like about this stock, the unknown.

[Vince]

Do you want to take this one mista or shall I? :cool:

It's okay, - I've got this....... see you in a week!

[Beagle]

When its all said and done the shares continue their downtrend and from a technical perspective I think a test of their all time low of 12.5 cps looks likely.

I struggle to see what the catalyst is for a breakout of their current downtrend ? They've raised a bunch of capital at 12.0 cents...simple logic suggests to me that's where this is headed in the short term. Shareholders just as disenfranchised as subscribers ?

[winner69]

When its all said and done the shares continue their downtrend and from a technical perspective I think a test of their all time low of 12.5 cps looks likely.

I struggle to see what the catalyst is for a breakout of their current downtrend ? They've raised a bunch of capital at 12.0 cents...simple logic suggests to me that's where this is headed in the short term. Shareholders just as disenfranchised as subscribers ?

Directbroking seems to show on an adjusted basis all time low is about 10 cents

I’m waiting along with RTM for something cheaper

[Leftfield]

It's always been a cash cow. Millions in dividends were paid out...... .


With respect, that doesn't answer the Question. If you are advocating that we invest in this great company, it would be helpful to know how well you (and the average SKT shareholder) have fared.

As a SKT shareholder, what is the "continued favourable return" you claim to have achieved with your investment?

For example what has been the average % dividend return pa over (say) the last 5 yrs?

What share price gain/loss have you experienced over the same time?

Share price gain/loss % plus dividend yield % = your av percentage return. Simple.

[Beagle]

Directbroking seems to show on an adjusted basis all time low is about 10 cents

I’m waiting along with RTM for something cheaper

Thanks, yeah...make sense to wait for the downtrend to stop, whenever that might be ?

[allfromacell]

I enjoy buying shares in downtrends, when there is good value on the table I say grab it. Sure the shares could keep falling but realistically how much downside it there really left? The shares could bounce violently on any given day while you've missed out completely not wanting to chase the SP up.

Sky at 0.127 is a good deal, I would argue almost as good as OCA was at $0.50, sometimes it just makes sense to take a good deal when it's offered.

[Snow Leopard]

Directbroking seems to show on an adjusted basis all time low is about 10 cents

I’m waiting along with RTM for something cheaper

I am of the opinion that adjusting historical prices for SPP's is a big NO-NO...

...and if you are going to do it at least apply it from the correct date, that spike is appalling. :scared:

Meanwhile my $1.7M offer for the company still stands even if ASBSec keeps rejecting my buy order :D.

[Akane]

Sharsies crowd saying SKT not worth it at any price. But BGI is still worth 9c+.....

This so much. A genuine business that's in the black, with a tonne of assets, now only has a market cap of $220m~
Compared to some unknown investment company that the higher management have been offloading shares left right and centre, has a momentary "market cap" of $70m... makes absolutely no sense at all.

Don't forget the sharesies crowd are the ones who invests anywhere from a few dollars to a few hundred dollars in shares and gets overjoyed when their portfolio returns are hitting double digit figures, so I would fully discount what they say most of the time, also they're the crowd who is "embracing the technology, and satellites are for boomers who has 1 foot in a coffin" mentality, naturally they would trash talk SKT as much as they could.

~12.7cps, on a business that is earning money, in this climate, and has solid plans to grow it's user base (broadband packages, NEON), I would love to buy more but somehow the "market" is dead set on burying this company 6 foot deep for no genuine reason that I can see, except chanting "it's dying, it's dying", but it's not?

Colour be confused.

[Entrep]

I enjoy buying shares in downtrends, when there is good value on the table I say grab it. Sure the shares could keep falling but realistically how much downside it there really left? The shares could bounce violently on any given day while you've missed out completely not wanting to chase the SP up.

Sky at 0.127 is a good deal, I would argue almost as good as OCA was at $0.50, sometimes it just makes sense to take a good deal when it's offered.

At which point in this down trend would you have started to buy?

11834

From $6.20 to $4? From $4 to $2? From $2 to $1? From $1 to 50c? From 50c to 25c? From 25c to 12.5c?

Any novice share traders should absolutely not follow the advice above.


I am of the opinion that adjusting historical prices for SPP's is a big NO-NO...

Absolutely! To do so otherwise is a total misrepresentation

[blackcap]

For some obscure reason (I am not complaining) Sky are still offering me free movies when they said the offer would expire on the 31st July.

[allfromacell]

At which point in this down trend would you have started to buy?

11834

From $6.20 to $4? From $4 to $2? From $2 to $1? From $1 to 50c? From 50c to 25c? From 25c to 12.5c?

Any novice share traders should absolutely not follow the advice above.



Absolutely! To do so otherwise is a total misrepresentation

I'm not advocating to buy a downtrend for the sake of it being in a downtrend, I didn't start seeing value in Sky shares until recently so my average cost base is very low.

[KJMLimited]

When I look at the depth of the buy and sell quotes, there is never any real volume showing. E.g, at 12.9 there are 700,000 shares being sold by 5 orders. That's an average of 140,000 shares per seller with a average value of $18,000. Hardly market moving stuff normally and I assume it is retail. Whether it is sharesies I have no idea. However the buy side looks the same. The institutional holders would all have enough stock at 12c through the placement and the sub-underwrite, so they are hardly likely to step up above 13 - but the unknown is how many traded out at 14+. Disc I'm a holder at 12, 13.7 and 16, did own it way way back when it was a monopoly and sold out at $5.35. I see some value here despite it not being anywhere near that monopoly anymore. Happy to wait it out.

[SpaceZ]

For some obscure reason (I am not complaining) Sky are still offering me free movies when they said the offer would expire on the 31st July.

Yeah, that is my feeling as well, they give away some freebies to keep customers numbers. And customers can be fluids on the nature of streaming.

[winner69]

I'm not advocating to buy a downtrend for the sake of it being in a downtrend, I didn't start seeing value in Sky shares until recently so my average cost base is very low.

Well done allfromacell .....done better than Akane

Maybe Akane should answer Entreps question as well.

[Balance]

When I look at the depth of the buy and sell quotes, there is never any real volume showing. E.g, at 12.9 there are 700,000 shares being sold by 5 orders. That's an average of 140,000 shares per seller with a average value of $18,000. Hardly market moving stuff normally and I assume it is retail. Whether it is sharesies I have no idea. However the buy side looks the same. The institutional holders would all have enough stock at 12c through the placement and the sub-underwrite, so they are hardly likely to step up above 13 - but the unknown is how many traded out at 14+. Disc I'm a holder at 12, 13.7 and 16, did own it way way back when it was a monopoly and sold out at $5.35. I see some value here despite it not being anywhere near that monopoly anymore. Happy to wait it out.

The big players are not going put their squillions of shares to sell (or buy) on the market - that's not how they operate.

[Akane]

Well done allfromacell .....done better than Akane


Didn't know this was a competition :) but if it was then I'll be ok being called a loser, as the numbers speaks for itself with my bags of SKT. Sure it's not big bags to some of the big players out there but it's still bags nonetheless.

To answer Entreps question as to when would one have bought more? Looking back I would've bought more (if I had the cashflow) at around 15c. Now at ~12.9cps I think it's a good deal, but I'll hold off, as I said I just don't understand this stock as much as I thought I did, it goes against everything I've learned, maybe I didn't learn enough or maybe SKT is going against the fundamentals, whatever it is I'll sit on the sideline for a bit for now whilst I'm trying to wrap my head around what is happening.

[Balance]

"82% of the Institutional Entitlement Offer and Placement were allocated to existing eligible institutional shareholders. The balance of new Shares were allocated to new investors."

So new investors were allocated $21.456m or 178.8m shares at 12c.

Only 15.7m shares traded today - at closing price of 17c, plenty more stock to come from the new investors who obtained stock at 12c to lock in their 42% profit.

This to me is the long and short of why SKT is heading towards 12c first before it trends back up* again.

Remember that new investors received 18% of the institutional placement & rights issue : 179m shares at 12c on 25 May

and

underwriters obtained 100m shortfall shares on 12 June at 12c - a total of 279m shares art 12c!

It's a bonanza for the new investors and underwriters when the sp spiked as high as 19.5c intra-day* post the capital raising so it's inevitable that they have been selling down to lock in their huge profits.

[KJMLimited]

Being ex insto myself, I disagree.

[Balance]

Being ex insto myself, I disagree.

Disagree for all you want.

It is what it is.

[Quantitative Easing]

Most Bullish Case for Sky
This Damsel in Distress gets rescued by a white knight.

Most Bearish Case for Sky
Spark ups the ante on sports rights and Sky slowly loose their sports rights including eventually loosing NZ rugby rights.
HBO etc... starts streaming directly to the customer and Neon looses all the good meaningful shows.
Derek Handley stays on.
Satellite Customers keep decreasing as the older generation retires until both ceases to exist.
Rugbypass ends up being a hospital pass.

Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. But there are more bear cases than bull cases, hence why the downward trajectory. I am a punter though, so i do see an acquisition in the horizon.

[Entrep]

Most Bearish Case for Sky

Derek Handley stays on.

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZaEn8On7QREJ3sgFPa/giphy-downsized-large.gif

[KJMLimited]

The big players are not going put their squillions of shares to sell (or buy) on the market - that's not how they operate.
As an ex-insto, I disagree.

[Balance]

As an ex-insto, I disagree.

Ever heard the term 'crossings' and 'off market'?

You may want to explain to some of the newer posters here what those term means.

[Balance]

Thanks, yeah...make sense to wait for the downtrend to stop, whenever that might be ?

Wait for that tsunami of 279m shares issued at 12c to be out of the way first?

[KJMLimited]

Ever heard the term 'crossings' and 'off market'?

You may want to explain to some of the newer posters here what those term means.

Yes I have thanks. I agree that Instos look for liquidity off-market, but that doesn't stop them operating on-market also, which they do. Off-market crossings happen but they must also be reported through the market. And there hasn't been much of that.

[Getty]

Well done allfromacell .....done better than Akane

Maybe Akane should answer Entreps question as well.

Sorry to see you attacked by a couple of naughty boys yesterday Winner.
It wouldn't have happened if you still had the cat.
one stern look from him kept all enemies at bay!
Somehow Pooh bear looking down like a bear market doesnt cut it.

Never mind bring back Buck, please just bring back the cat.
He must have 8 lives left...

[Balance]

Yes I have thanks. I agree that Instos look for liquidity off-market, but that doesn't stop them operating on-market also, which they do. Off-market crossings happen but they must also be reported through the market. And there hasn't been much of that.

Ok - I got you now.

Agreed that instos operate on-market too.

I am referring to when they have squllions of shares - they typically look towards the brokers to offload or load up via off market crossings.

In the case of SKT, I believe what we are seeing is that the instos look at the liquidity and you are right, there has actually been relatively good liquidity which has allowed them to dump stock when the bids built up sufficiently to take out the volume.

[tqtq]

Does anyone have any news on the Mediaworks Disco deal? The Australian reported that Sky is waiting to pick it up MW if the deal falls over.

[winner69]

Ogg says SKT is two businesses these days

1 - The satellite business was once very profitable is now just somewhat profitable.

2 - The streaming business is currently not very profitable but over time it maybe very profitable.

But Ogg didn’t put a value on the seperate businesses

Maybe he’s right ..the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole.

[Dlownz]

Ogg says SKT is two businesses these days

1 - The satellite business was once very profitable is now just somewhat profitable.

2 - The streaming business is currently not very profitable but over time it maybe very profitable.

But Ogg didn’t put a value on the seperate businesses

Maybe he’s right ..the sum of the parts is worth more than the whole.
586000x$82monthly average spend sub satellite
576mill
Streaming dont know average spend. So let's just low ball $10month.
415000x$10monthly
50mill
Obviously over a year.

[tqtq]

What kind of multiple do you think Sky would fetch if there were a takeover?

[winner69]

Taleb in Fooled By Randomness had a good story about a dentist looking at stock prices too often. The moral was the more times you looked at them the sadder you'll be .... even if your portfolio is increasing.

SKT since Christmas - 73 down days and 45 up days

So if the dentist held SKT shares and checked its share price each a day there would have been 73 sad days and only 45 happy days (and a few hum hum days)

If he had only checked it today he would have experienced only one sad day (and a really sad day it would have been)

Looks like today is a sad day for most of us :scared::eek2:

[biker]

Taleb in Fooled By Randomness had a good story about a dentist looking at stock prices too often. The moral was the more times you looked at them the sadder you'll be .... even if your portfolio is increasing.

SKT since Christmas - 73 down days and 45 up days

So if the dentist held SKT shares and checked its share price each a day there would have been 73 sad days and only 45 happy days (and a few hum hum days)

If he had only checked it today he would have experienced only one sad day (and a really sad day it would have been)

Looks like today is a sad day for most of us :scared::eek2:

I think these are actually happy days. Great buying opportunities as the share price hovers between 12&13 cents.
Taking the long view, exciting times.

[winner69]

I think these are actually happy days. Great buying opportunities as the share price hovers between 12&13 cents.
Taking the long view, exciting times.

But I wouldn't mind a few more sad days to get some more

But hoping one day the share price will start going up one day

[nztx]

I think these are actually happy days. Great buying opportunities as the share price hovers between 12&13 cents.
Taking the long view, exciting times.

Someone may be secretly thinking they could be a quiet winner too..

[Akane]

...SKT since Christmas - 73 down days and 45 up days

So if the dentist held SKT shares and checked its share price each a day there would have been 73 sad days and only 45 happy days (and a few hum hum days)...


Unfortunately it's always 1 cent up, 2 cents down, a bit like our petrol prices :laugh:

[Stock888]

This example might not be relevant to you: While I bought PEB at 0.13 few months ago, close FA/TA friends told me I was investing into a black hole, look at PEB's price today? I couldn't believe I sold all at 0.50.... I don't think PEB is better than SKT in term of financial/potential...

Disc: My SKT average cost is 0.158. (did wanted to beat myself up I didn't sell any at 0.19 because it's far from my own target price of the share)

[winner69]

Wonder how much impairments will be in F20?

That’s assuming there are some ...they did hint there would be.

[winner69]

This example might not be relevant to you: While I bought PEB at 0.13 few months ago, close FA/TA friends told me I was investing into a black hole, look at PEB's price today? I couldn't believe I sold all at 0.50.... I don't think PEB is better than SKT in term of financial/potential...

Disc: My SKT average cost is 0.158. (did wanted to beat myself up I didn't sell any at 0.19 because it's far from my own target price of the share)

Well done stockie ...good timing and you made heaps eh

Probably don’t even regret selling all at 50 cents ....you made enough and left the rest for others.

[Balance]

Well done stockie ...good timing and you made heaps eh

Probably don’t even regret selling all at 50 cents ....you made enough and left the rest for others.

As long as the sp does not do an ATM and have some of us wondering why we even sold out at $16!

[Balance]

Do you want to take this one mista or shall I? :cool:

Gee - rather harsh for both of them to be banned but a cooling down period from time to time can be a good thing when emotions get too high & things get too heated.

"Never get emotional, it clouds your judgement' The Godfather 1972

[silu]

The contrarian in me has taken a position in Sky TV for the first time in 18 years. There is much value left in the business and it is seriously undervalued at the moment. However it is also dangerous to swim against the current so you better have strength.

[Balance]

The contrarian in me has taken a position in Sky TV for the first time in 18 years. There is much value left in the business and it is seriously undervalued at the moment. However it is also dangerous to swim against the current so you better have strength.

When you are caught up in a rip, they say to drift with the rip as it sweeps you further out to sea and make sure you have enough strength left to swim back to shore or get the attention of the lifeguards to pull you out of trouble?

Lifeguard here for many is a white knight - otherwise, depending how much of the 279m shares taken up by the new investors and underwriters are left to be sold, better keep some strength ($) against the rip!

[GR8DAY]

........it really is just a matter of time (IMHO) before a take-over offer presents. I guess the $60 billion question is "at what price"?? Has to north of 20c surely?

[RTM]

Gee - rather harsh for both of them to be banned but a cooling down period from time to time can be a good thing when emotions get too high & things get too heated.

"Never get emotional, it clouds your judgement' The Godfather 1972

So that’s where they have gone. Bit surprised, this thread not nearly as entertaining now, I’ve had to revert to Netflix.

[steveb]

wouldn't it be ironic if a takeover comes in whilst they have been sidelined,but I am sure ogg will be happy sifting through you tube

[Dlownz]

Why would we want a takeover besides quick money. This is a hold for me. I'm going to try to give the stock 2 years to correct if all goes according to plan. If they do decide to announce a dividend in 22. They would probably need to do a share consolidation.

[Balance]

Why would we want a takeover besides quick money. This is a hold for me. I'm going to try to give the stock 2 years to correct if all goes according to plan. If they do decide to announce a dividend in 22. They would probably need to do a share consolidation.

A takeover is realistically the only way that the institutions who have bought in big are going to be able to get out.

Meanwhile, sp of 12c - looks like it could happen by end of this week?

Guess the underwriters and new investors with the 279m shares obtained at 12c are happy to square their position after enjoying & locking in some fabulous gains over the last 2 months.

Who says you cannot make very good money in a downtrend? 😳

[Snow Leopard]

I am hoping the bottom is in on this one because possibly very foolishly, I have changed by offer from all at 0.1c to more modest amounts at 12.Xc (where X is an integer between 0 and 9).

[Entrep]

A takeover is realistically the only way that the institutions who have bought in big are going to be able to get out.

Institutions only bought $9M worth in the raise, no one bought in big

[Balance]

I am hoping the bottom is in on this one because possibly very foolishly, I have changed by offer from all at 0.1c to more modest amounts at 12.Xc (where X is an integer between 0 and 9).

You could be in luck picking the bottom - maybe, just maybe.

I have just added up the number of shares traded since the trading halt to facilitate the capital raise was lifted on 25 May 2020 and it totals 267m shares!

There will be traders punting in and out of course but there certainly has been huge volume going through.

[steveb]

has there been much shorting going on?

[Well Endowed]

tiny amount of shorting on the ASX listing
https://www.shortman.com.au/stock?q=SKT

not sure where you'd find the NZX numbers

[tqtq]

Interesting article in the Sunday Times on Sky Europe (Comcast) results. I'd say SKT is not too far off. The news was better than expectations but I didn't see much of a share price bounce, though Sky Europe is just one of the businesses they own (aside from Street Fighter II). Discl: I'm in.

Sporting disruption robs Sky of subscribers and advertising cash
https://apple.news/Ai0JLRo2VQv6ovfpnub_KAw

Sky’s revenues fell by more than 10 per cent in the second quarter after the Premier League and other sports events were disrupted or cancelled and advertisers slashed spending.
Turnover dropped 13 per cent to $4.1 billion after Sky allowed customers to suspend monthly sports subscription payments during the hiatus in live sports, according to results from Comcast, its American parent. Its advertising sales slumped by 41 per cent as marketing chiefs reined in spending and the British and Italian governments placed curbs on gambling adverts.
Sky said its customer numbers across Europe decreased by 214,000 to 23.7 million during the second quarter and that its underlying profits dipped 3 per cent to $749 million. The broadcaster has lost 5 per cent of its sports subscribers since March.

[Cadalac123]

TA looking dicey. Heavily oversold on RSI basis, but once it broke that .137 support it was some dangerous gap action down to 0.100. Let's hope it doesn't get there :laugh:

[Dlownz]

Just got a email. Spark sports price is increasing from 19.99 to 24.99

[Jay]

Was about to say the same thing- From Sept - though it says if you have a spark account you get a $5 credit back

[Quantitative Easing]

It is a blue sky day today.

[Quantitative Easing]

Looks like the pundits at hotcopper are picking another bull run for this stock.

[Balance]

You could be in luck picking the bottom - maybe, just maybe.

I have just added up the number of shares traded since the trading halt to facilitate the capital raise was lifted on 25 May 2020 and it totals 267m shares!

There will be traders punting in and out of course but there certainly has been huge volume going through.

Add yesterday & today's turnover so far, I make it that 270m shares have traded since 25 May 2020 when the trading halt was lifted.

It could indeed be that the new investors and underwriters (278m shares at 12c) who wanted to lock in their gains have indeed sold and are now out of the market.

[Snow Leopard]

I am hoping the bottom is in on this one because possibly very foolishly, I have changed by offer from all at 0.1c to more modest amounts at 12.Xc (where X is an integer between 0 and 9).

...and I now have my fill.

Let us see how this works out.

Onwards and upwards :D

[winner69]

Add yesterday & today's turnover so far, I make it that 270m shares have traded since 25 May 2020 when the trading halt was lifted.

It could indeed be that the new investors and underwriters (278m shares at 12c) who wanted to lock in their gains have indeed sold and are now out of the market.

But Balance - Martin was ‘delighted’ with having new shareholders and welcomed them to the register

Suppose both delighted with this ...win win

[Balance]

But Balance - but Martin was ‘delighted’ with having new shareholders and welcomed them to the register

Suppose both delighted with this ...win win

He sure was delighted (and I am sure extremely relieved) simply too get the money, one suspects!

[Dlownz]

It's very quite on here with our mista tea and Ogg. Lol. Whens the ban over.

[Balance]

It's very quite on here with our mista tea and Ogg. Lol. Whens the ban over.

Enjoy the peace while you can and the opportunity to maybe grab some cheap shares while you can?

[Dlownz]

Already have topped up again. I just can't see it getting lower. But if it does I'll be In again. With spark putting there prices up if you were to buy a 12 month sub with sky sports it's exactly $25 as well. What better value sky or spark. I know what I choice.

[Quantitative Easing]

Already have topped up again. I just can't see it getting lower. But if it does I'll be In again. With spark putting there prices up if you were to buy a 12 month sub with sky sports it's exactly $25 as well. What better value sky or spark. I know what I choice.

Expect gains of 300% and above for those that buy in at 12.5-12.8. If you don't want those sort of gains don't buy this stock. DYOR. Ultimately, we are all here to make money.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think it's time to go sell Sky to the sharesies crowd on their facebook page. We can get this up to 20c on the back of sharesies crowd.

[Dlownz]

We won't need sharesies once the results out. Neon and sky sport streaming is gaining traction. Yes it's low earning but also low cost.

[Sideshow Bob]

I think it's time to go sell Sky to the sharesies crowd on their facebook page. We can get this up to 20c on the back of sharesies crowd.

Thread on their Facebook page last week.............overriding theme was...........SKY is DEAD!!

[biker]

Enjoy the peace while you can and the opportunity to maybe grab some cheap shares while you can?

Agree. Accumulating again today

[gains]

Expect gains of 300% and above for those that buy in at 12.5-12.8. If you don't want those sort of gains don't buy this stock. DYOR. Ultimately, we are all here to make money.

Could I concluded that you believe the sp is worth 30-40c then?

[Joshuatree]

Expect gains of 300% and above for those that buy in at 12.5-12.8. If you don't want those sort of gains don't buy this stock. DYOR. Ultimately, we are all here to make money.

So you're a qualified licensed Investment advisor or just another ramper blowing hot air out of your bottom. And as far as encouraging people to go, manipulate/ ramp up on sharsies , thanks for showing us your blind spot and its big, no moral compass, how low can we go here?

[Quantitative Easing]

Could I concluded that you believe the sp is worth 30-40c then?

Yeah probably a company with a market cap of 700-800 million. If all the darts hit the board then a company with a market cap between 1-1.2 billion.

[Snow Leopard]

So you're a qualified licensed Investment advisor or just another ramper blowing hot air out of your bottom. And as far as encouraging people to go, manipulate/ ramp up on sharsies , thanks for showing us your blind spot and its big, no moral compass, how low can we go here?

probably no lower than your rant?

Chill JT, he did include DYOR.

[Joshuatree]

Its low quality stuff we dont need that rubbish on here, plenty of boiler rooms for you to spin on, away with you.lets keep some quality on sharetrader, thats what makes it different to all the others.

[Dlownz]

Is this the slow stair case rise back to the top

[Akane]

Is this the slow stair case rise back to the top

This is one strange stock, all my other holdings are down this morning, but SKT is slowly going back up as of right now.
Confused.

[Dlownz]

There's not much volume on the sell side. So who every was selling maybe its dried up at long last. Could be back to 15c by the end of tomorrow

[dompf]

There's not much volume on the sell side. So who every was selling maybe its dried up at long last. Could be back to 15c by the end of tomorrow

Better buy volume than ive seen for the last 3ms on SKT, im not calling anything until I see those financials EOM August.

[Balance]

Add yesterday & today's turnover so far, I make it that 270m shares have traded since 25 May 2020 when the trading halt was lifted.

It could indeed be that the new investors and underwriters (278m shares at 12c) who wanted to lock in their gains have indeed sold and are now out of the market.

Onwards and upwards now that the overhang is out of the way?

[sb9]

Onwards and upwards now that the overhang is out of the way?

Bugger was hoping for a second bite if and when it touched 12c mark..

[Dlownz]

Onwards and upwards now that the overhang is out of the way?

There's still a few more overhangs that will try to bring this down still. But they are drying up. In 3 weeks time they will be gone.

[Snow Leopard]

Better buy volume than ive seen for the last 3ms on SKT, im not calling anything until I see those financials EOM August.

Pending the results when I will redo the numbers, but I have a current value for SKT of 28.3c.

[Quantitative Easing]

So you're a qualified licensed Investment advisor or just another ramper blowing hot air out of your bottom. And as far as encouraging people to go, manipulate/ ramp up on sharsies , thanks for showing us your blind spot and its big, no moral compass, how low can we go here?

I am sorry Josh if i offended you and no i am just a regular guy. I think we need to value diversity of opinions on this forum. We don't want everyone to have the same opinion as you do :) Likewise i will take your opinion on board. Ultimately, DYOR. I only gave my opinion.

[dompf]

Pending the results when I will redo the numbers, but I have a current value for SKT of 28.3c.

If we end up at 28.3c i'll buy you a beer or 5.

Shares have been beaten up last few months hopefully some good news for all holders is on the horizon.

[Dlownz]

We might see that in Feb/March if the result is as good as I expect and it carries to the Feb result showing continuing improvement above forecast. I'm at 95% certain this result will be a goodie.

[Joshuatree]

I am sorry Josh if i offended you and no i am just a regular guy. I think we need to value diversity of opinions on this forum. We don't want everyone to have the same opinion as you do :) Likewise i will take your opinion on board. Ultimately, DYOR. I only gave my opinion.

Cheers, me too. I reacted rather than responded DOH! i have a stepdaughter for one learning about investing in shares using sharsies . I guess she had better learn about all the the up ramping and down ramping games as they are a fact of life to be beware of when investing/trading. I am easing out of my watchdog role here after many years of holding pumpers and dumpers to account, we dont want to end up like H/C where there are bountiful games going on amongst the genuine posters.Reading the SKT thread on H/C is interesting
Mr Tea and ogg are treading a fine line here too imo. cheers, JT

[tqtq]

There's still a few more overhangs that will try to bring this down still. But they are drying up. In 3 weeks time they will be gone.

Hope the ASX doesn't keep dragging the SP down

[dompf]

Hope the ASX doesn't keep dragging the SP down

Hopefully the results prove what many here are taking and a well written plan of where to go from here would help as well.

I believe Sky undervalued at 12.5c but again it’s for me anyway what their game plan is to adopt a positive strategy moving forward that matters.

[Dlownz]

If it goes down so be it. I've got some more ready to go on it if it hits my mark again.

[GR8DAY]

......even 20c is a near 50% gain on the current SP. Even if that took a year that's not too shabby but hopefully back at 20c in a few weeks or months. I could see it happening now that it looks like the big over-hangs are slowly drying up.

[winner69]

Hope the ASX doesn't keep dragging the SP down

Never much volume on ASX to make much difference

[Snow Leopard]

Hope the ASX doesn't keep dragging the SP down

SKT is driven by the NZX.

[Balance]

......even 20c is a near 50% gain on the current SP. Even if that took a year that's not too shabby but hopefully back at 20c in a few weeks or months. I could see it happening now that it looks like the big over-hangs are slowly drying up.

Imo, SKT will either hit 25c or go back down to 8c from the current level when its results come out - no halfway with the stock as expectations are so low.

If it disappoints against the low expectations already built into the sp, it will suffer a very sharp fall indeed.

If it surprises on the upside (most likely imo), the stock will go for a very strong run.

[tqtq]

It feels like the ASX lags the NZX on SKT. Still some selling happening on the ASX but SKT.AX headed in the right direction at last.

[ados_nz]

Bit of a passenger here but could someone please enlighten me as to when the SKT results are scheduled/expected?

I was enjoying the "hype squad" (pre-ban) for some light humor... However, from a simple viewers perspective I like the more information/share based focused discussions of recent.

[tqtq]

Bit of a passenger here but could someone please enlighten me as to when the SKT results are scheduled/expected?

I was enjoying the "hype squad" (pre-ban) for some light humor... However, from a simple viewers perspective I like the more information/share based focused discussions of recent.

20th August from memory

[GR8DAY]

20th August rhymes with 20c doesnt it?

[GR8DAY]

sorry.....time for a walk I think.

[tqtq]

Alternatively 20.8

[GR8DAY]

LOL.......very good tq

[dompf]

Bit of a passenger here but could someone please enlighten me as to when the SKT results are scheduled/expected?

I was enjoying the "hype squad" (pre-ban) for some light humor... However, from a simple viewers perspective I like the more information/share based focused discussions of recent.

Last years results were 22nd August; expecting EOM date.

[Akane]

Alternatively 20.8

or 8.20c?

Wishing for $2.80 but wishful thinking.

[Balance]

or 8.20c?

Wishing for $2.80 but wishful thinking.

Most holders will be probably be ecstatic If the sp goes back to 28c by year end! 😜

[tqtq]

or 8.20c?

Wishing for $2.80 but wishful thinking.

0.82 would be great too but 0.28 is my prediction by end of year

[silu]

Most holders will be probably be ecstatic If the sp goes back to 28c by year end! ��

Funny that is my target price - 100% return within 4 months would be nice.

[GR8DAY]

I would be more than happy to see a 20 in front of the price.......in fact ive put a lot of money on it...wasnt exactly planned but couldnt turn down those 12c "gifts" a while back.

[tqtq]

or 8.20c?

Wishing for $2.80 but wishful thinking.

I think that's the Fat Prophet's guy's fair value estimate.

[Dlownz]

At this stage I see sky valued between 17-20cents in all honesty.
If the results good which I have said I believe it will be good. It will push it to maybe 25cents by Feb. Maybe with the Feb result we will see it pushing into the 30s. But it's all guess work untill the results out.

[Balance]

At this stage I see sky valued between 17-20cents in all honesty.
If the results good which I have said I believe it will be good. It will push it to maybe 25cents by Feb. Maybe with the Feb result we will see it pushing into the 30s. But it's all guess work untill the results out.

The company has been very quiet about its June 2020 results and future prospects since the capital raising.

Means everyone save the company are in dark - but the sp at current levels pricing in the worse outcome.

2 weeks to go and all will be revealed!

[nztx]

0.82 would be great too but 0.28 is my prediction by end of year

with a share consolidation ... nah I didn't even suggest that ;)

[nztx]

The company has been very quiet about its June 2020 results and future prospects since the capital raising.

Means everyone save the company are in dark - but the sp at current levels pricing in the worse outcome.

2 weeks to go and all will be revealed!


bound to be all on subscriber numbers .. any large intangibles sitting for a lopping down just to pretty up the bottom line further ?

[tqtq]

bound to be all on subscriber numbers .. any large intangibles sitting for a lopping down just to pretty up the bottom line further ?

Hopefully they've made some progress on the broadband side and have some concrete plans to discuss as well as any news on pursuing mobile.

[tqtq]

I'm secretly hoping they'll get to buy mediaworks for a song if the Discovery deal falls over

[nztx]

I'm secretly hoping they'll get to buy mediaworks for a song if the Discovery deal falls over

but will IFT / Voda & mates also be auditioning with their song ? ;)

[tqtq]

but will IFT / Voda & mates also be auditioning with their song ? ;)

Possibly but as itÂ’s not premium content on those mw channels it will have no value to their packages

[Quantitative Easing]

I think we can regard Ogg and MistaTea as martyrs now. They have died for us and our cause. They are in heaven now aka hotcopper.

[Balance]

I think we can regard Ogg and MistaTea as martyrs now. They have died for us and our cause. They are in heaven now aka hotcopper.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WgPePk3kGZk

[Quantitative Easing]

Looks like one of our disciples has gone and posted on the sharesies facebook page. Seems like not too great sentiment towards the company from sharesies investors. I think most of them are discounting the takeover option, most probably haven't come across acquisitions in their investing lives.

[Hello123]

Looks like one of our disciples has gone and posted on the sharesies facebook page. Seems like not too great sentiment towards the company from sharesies investors. I think most of them are discounting the takeover option, most probably haven't come across acquisitions in their investing lives.

Disciples ahaha!

[RTM]

Looks like one of our disciples has gone and posted on the sharesies facebook page. Seems like not too great sentiment towards the company from sharesies investors. I think most of them are discounting the takeover option, most probably haven't come across acquisitions in their investing lives.

Guess here....I suspect they are younger, accustomed to streaming everything...and can get most of everything they want without paying a lot or anything. Some probably borrow their parents Netflix login. Their outlook for SKY won't be the best. It also aligns with my concerns for SKY.

Never did get down to my buy price.

[Bjauck]

Guess here....I suspect they are younger, accustomed to streaming everything...and can get most of everything they want without paying a lot or anything. Some probably borrow their parents Netflix login. Their outlook for SKY won't be the best. It also aligns with my concerns for SKY.

Never did get down to my buy price.
It is amazing what you can find on YouTube! Although the way they insert ad beaks in free Youtube has become invasive. Apart from the occasional gem, Netflix seems skewed to the under 30’s. More subscription packages may help Sky with (cheaper) Sky Streaming only subs perhaps attracting a younger crowd?

[Akane]

Looks like one of our disciples has gone and posted on the sharesies facebook page. Seems like not too great sentiment towards the company from sharesies investors. I think most of them are discounting the takeover option, most probably haven't come across acquisitions in their investing lives.

I saw that post, it was entertaining, almost like watching a Facebook political debate.

[RTM]

It is amazing what you can find on YouTube! Although the way they insert ad beaks in free Youtube has become invasive. Apart from the occasional gem, Netflix seems skewed to the under 30’s. More subscription packages may help Sky with (cheaper) Sky Streaming only subs perhaps attracting a younger crowd?

I have some kind of family sharing on the back of my sons Google Music Account ( I think).
NO ADS at all WITH YOUTUBE. It transforms it. I recall when we used to buy DVD's of concerts.
Now they just stream whenever we want via YouTube.
It is just so so good.

[Sideshow Bob]

Looks like one of our disciples has gone and posted on the sharesies facebook page. Seems like not too great sentiment towards the company from sharesies investors. I think most of them are discounting the takeover option, most probably haven't come across acquisitions in their investing lives.

Sky is full 'OK Boomer' over in Sharsies. Blinkered by streaming so can't see the financials....

[Quantitative Easing]

Sky is full 'OK Boomer' over in Sharsies. Blinkered by streaming so can't see the financials....

Don't understand all this hate against boomers. I am a millennial myself, however i have absolutely no hate towards baby boomers. I think boomers lived in a far tougher time than now. Constant war, high interest rates, racism, sexism, no internet, little choice to consume, no travel, little entertainment etc...barring covid, we live in the greatest time in our history as a human civilisation. Likewise, 50 years down the track people in the future will see us as living in a 'backwards' time.

[airedale]

I have some kind of family sharing on the back of my sons Google Music Account ( I think).
NO ADS at all WITH YOUTUBE. It transforms it. I recall when we used to buy DVD's of concerts.
Now they just stream whenever we want via YouTube.
It is just so so good.
Hi RTM, how much does your son pay for his subscription.

[airedale]

Don't understand all this hate against boomers. I am a millennial myself, however i have absolutely no hate towards baby boomers. I think boomers lived in a far tougher time than now. Constant war, high interest rates, racism, sexism, no internet, little choice to consume, no travel, little entertainment etc...barring covid, we live in the greatest time in our history as a human civilisation. Likewise, 50 years down the track people in the future will see us as living in a 'backwards' time.
Millenials and Boomers....who are they. I just need a person's age if I need it for anything.. And don't tell me about Gen X. My eyes will glaze over.;)

[Stranger_Danger]

This thread is comical. We've finally found a share the Sharesies folk won't buy! I was giving serious thought to listing a company called Magic Beans Ltd and being 100% honest in the prospectus to avoid criminal charges, then watching as they all bought it anyway. Have to rethink things now.

To put it another way, if an investor base with the combined intellectual acuity of a mouldy turnip can figure out that Sky TV is a dog, maybe, just maybe, it is worth taking off the rose tinted glasses and rethinking your thesis?

[ratkin]

Don't understand all this hate against boomers. I am a millennial myself, however i have absolutely no hate towards baby boomers. I think boomers lived in a far tougher time than now. Constant war, high interest rates, racism, sexism, no internet, little choice to consume, no travel, little entertainment etc...barring covid, we live in the greatest time in our history as a human civilisation. Likewise, 50 years down the track people in the future will see us as living in a 'backwards' time.

What is all this about boomers living in constant war? They were all born after the second world war, and had some really cool decades to grow up in, the 60s, 70s and 80s, and the govt even paid you to go to uni to get wasted for Three years. Plus boomers like myself have been on the Internet since the early 90s so have missed nothing there.

I suspect though that us remaining boomers are the main users of sky. Even I am thinking of pulling the plug on it, it is only the wife preventing me from ditching it as she loves property and travel shows for some strange reason, and that awful "say yes to the dress"
I tried telling her she could source them elsewhere but she is not having it.

[mikeybycrikey]

This thread is comical. We've finally found a share the Sharesies folk won't buy! I was giving serious thought to listing a company called Magic Beans Ltd and being 100% honest in the prospectus to avoid criminal charges, then watching as they all bought it anyway. Have to rethink things now.


I think it really needs to be Magic Beans Blockchain Ltd for full effect.

[Quantitative Easing]

had some really cool decades to grow up in, the 60s, 70s and 80s,.

With all due respect sir i don't think those decades were that cool for Maori, Polynesians or women. Dawn raids destroyed a generation. Not to mention the USA...If you weren't white you weren't right back then.

[clip]

Guess here....I suspect they are younger, accustomed to streaming everything...and can get most of everything they want without paying a lot or anything. Some probably borrow their parents Netflix login. Their outlook for SKY won't be the best. It also aligns with my concerns for SKY.

Never did get down to my buy price.

Far more likely the parents borrow the kids netflix account. My parents use mine, my partner's parents and aunts use hers and mine. They also use my plex account to play media streamed from friends computers. The older generation are getting a lot more savvy with technology and are learning how to stream using available programs from the kids.

We are in our 30s and have plenty of income we could spend on sky, but theres just no need if you're not a sports fan. Literally anything on sky can be found on netflix, youtube, HBO, hulu, amazon prime or plex, and you can get a few of those subs for the price of sky (I think, not up to date with sky pricing).

Sky is great for sports fans or people who want to sit down, turn the TV on and find something, anything to watch. But sport is still the main draw card and if they lose it they will be in trouble imo. Disclosure, not a holder.

[Harley]

I think if Sky would just fix their stupid, unresponsive, 4 second lag remote control that GETS PEOPLE STEAMING MAD, their share price would more than double.

[ThaiJohn]

With all due respect sir i don't think those decades were that cool for Maori, Polynesians or women. Dawn raids destroyed a generation. Not to mention the USA...If you weren't white you weren't right back then.

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP. mTuRFyM9xgNTJ7e64i3iPwHaEJ%26pid%3DApi%26h%3D160&f=1

[Getty]

I think if Sky would just fix their stupid, unresponsive, 4 second lag remote control that GETS PEOPLE STEAMING MAD, their share price would more than double.

Its interesting you raised that.
I had the old silver set box, and it was instant.
At Sky's insistence, they upgraded me to a black box, and it seems to be getting slower over @ the last yr.

I stayed at a place that had a Vodafone TV box, and it was really slow, even if you left in turned on in standby mode, when you woke it up again, you could make a coffee while you waited for it to upload or whatever it does.
It had numerous other short comings too, and wasnt a patch on the Sky box,
I would never buy one.

[Ogg]

Hype squad is back!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfObcMWpub4

Jeez, what a week.

The big seller finally runs out of ammo and gets blown away.

What were these dummies thinking selling stock at 12.5, "MUH 4.17% gains" from a 12c placement!

As soon as the selling stops massive buy orders appear. It also mysteriously matches the reduced short selling recently (albeit from a low level).

Just lol at the stock finally going up after I stop posting here. Maybe that's a sign I need to stop. I'm probably overselling this thing with too much takeover talk. Will try and focus on the new narrative, which is all about results on the 21st August.

I had to go to the Sharesies forum to get my fix. The fact that you can click on their Facebook profiles and see who they are is an eye opener. You can't blame these folks. Of cause the average person thinks Sky is a dog. If you're under 30 it's a dog with fleas. Dog, chicken, cow, sheep, who cares. If you're good enough you can make money on anything. It's all about buying and selling at the right price. Sky is a difficult stock to evaluate as the long term fundamentals are in question. However, there's value here if you read between the lines and ignore the typical "Sky is dead" theme that's been bashed over the last 2 decades.

I saw the massive Sharesies buy order get filled this morning at 14.1. Sharesies is getting too big now. They're spamming ads all over TV. It's only going to get bigger. I expect 10x more users over the next few years. I guess this is all good. They've done well with the branding and have broken into a niche market well. They're effect on the market will grow over time.

Is there anything else left to talk about with Sky?

We know that satellite subscriber churn will be low.
We know that Neon streaming growth will be strong.
We know that there will be some intangible write downs.
We know that there is uncertainty around sporting events

It's simple really, either a takeover will happen or dividends will resume. Either way the stock is going higher.

The stock has suffered from a lack of institutional investors, especially from overseas. Factor in just about everyone has been burnt on the stock, it leaves a pretty dire situation. There's a strong disconnect between the share price and the underlying value of the business. That's why there needs to be a material event for something to change.

Just lol at Spark rising the price of Spark Sport and then offering discount bundles to mobile customers. Spark were against the Vodafone-Sky merger for that very reason. They said it would raise prices and enable unfair bundles. Not only did they stop the merger, but then go and do the very same thing they said they wanted to prevent, just lol, what a joke. What are Vodafone going to do now? If they sit back and do nothing than they're just a bunch of cuckolds.

The stock should continue it's upward momentum until results are released. Hopefully we can get back to the 17c TARP level. If results, but more importantly, the outlook, is good then maybe back to 20c by September. The registry should be tighter so it should stabilize more. By then the long term downtrend would likely be gone and maybe more investors will come on board.

The other big news to look out for is the Mediaworks TV sale. What is taking them so long! If Discovery Inc does end up buying them then this could work out well for Sky as it brings in another potential bidder for a takeover.

Bring on Monday!

[Cadalac123]

Hype squad is back!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfObcMWpub4

Jeez, what a week.

The big seller finally runs out of ammo and gets blown away.

What were these dummies thinking selling stock at 12.5, "MUH 4.17% gains" from a 12c placement!

As soon as the selling stops massive buy orders appear. It also mysteriously matches the reduced short selling recently (albeit from a low level).

Just lol at the stock finally going up after I stop posting here. Maybe that's a sign I need to stop. I'm probably overselling this thing with too much takeover talk. Will try and focus on the new narrative, which is all about results on the 21st August.

I had to go to the Sharesies forum to get my fix. The fact that you can click on their Facebook profiles and see who they are is an eye opener. You can't blame these folks. Of cause the average person thinks Sky is a dog. If you're under 30 it's a dog with fleas. Dog, chicken, cow, sheep, who cares. If you're good enough you can make money on anything. It's all about buying and selling at the right price. Sky is a difficult stock to evaluate as the long term fundamentals are in question. However, there's value here if you read between the lines and ignore the typical "Sky is dead" theme that's been bashed over the last 2 decades.

I saw the massive Sharesies buy order get filled this morning at 14.1. Sharesies is getting too big now. They're spamming ads all over TV. It's only going to get bigger. I expect 10x more users over the next few years. I guess this is all good. They've done well with the branding and have broken into a niche market well. They're effect on the market will grow over time.

Is there anything else left to talk about with Sky?

We know that satellite subscriber churn will be low.
We know that Neon streaming growth will be strong.
We know that there will be some intangible write downs.
We know that there is uncertainty around sporting events

It's simple really, either a takeover will happen or dividends will resume. Either way the stock is going higher.

The stock has suffered from a lack of institutional investors, especially from overseas. Factor in just about everyone has been burnt on the stock, it leaves a pretty dire situation. There's a strong disconnect between the share price and the underlying value of the business. That's why there needs to be a material event for something to change.

Just lol at Spark rising the price of Spark Sport and then offering discount bundles to mobile customers. Spark were against the Vodafone-Sky merger for that very reason. They said it would raise prices and enable unfair bundles. Not only did they stop the merger, but then go and do the very same thing they said they wanted to prevent, just lol, what a joke. What are Vodafone going to do now? If they sit back and do nothing than they're just a bunch of cuckolds.

The stock should continue it's upward momentum until results are released. Hopefully we can get back to the 17c TARP level. If results, but more importantly, the outlook, is good then maybe back to 20c by September. The registry should be tighter so it should stabilize more. By then the long term downtrend would likely be gone and maybe more investors will come on board.

The other big news to look out for is the Mediaworks TV sale. What is taking them so long! If Discovery Inc does end up buying them then this could work out well for Sky as it brings in another potential bidder for a takeover.

Bring on Monday!

All I know is this is a great stock to trade.

Undervalued from a intrinsic value perspective purely based on cash flows sure, provided their OCF doesn't significantly downgrade. I do imagine the provisional guidance given may be upgraded with the change in COVID status in NZ since the guidance was given which may be beneficial.

Sharesies is the bet365 of shares for those posters on facebook.
A common theme I see with this crowd is making conclusions on sp movements based on their everyday thoughts while they're sitting bored on their couch after work, rather than actually reading any financial statements.

A great example is a neighbour of mine who uses sharesies who was aggressively giving me stock recommendations, using ideas like how KFC being busy meant RBD will spike.

[Snow Leopard]

Ah! Commando - the Movie.

I watched this back in 1989 on a fairly rough ferry trip between the Icelandic mainland and Heimaey, an island of the Southern Coast notable for it's Puffins and a Volcanic eruption in 1973.

A great fan of Arnie, I was especially impressed by his ability to pick out, leap over & duck behind a bullet proof privet hedge and then pop back up and kill an entire squad of widely dispersed soldiers using less bullets than there were targets.

The other movie was Legal Eagles - :(

They should have an Arnie movie channel on Sky that would bring the punters in, especially if they showed True Lies every day.

Add in a Jackie Chan channel, a Shah Rukh Kahn channel & a Ranjinikanth channel and I would be tempted to come back to NZ and subscribe.

Disc: recent addition to the share register.

[Dlownz]

Yes back to real things. No more takeover talk
Institutions have brought into sky in a big way. They can see the value and undervalued price of sky. I'm a little surprised they haven't Brough more but I suppose with the capital raise everyone now has more money in the shares than they originally planned (me included).
Only 2 more weeks to go anyway.
Then we will see

[Getty]

https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Ftse1.mm.bing.net%2Fth%3Fid%3DOIP. mTuRFyM9xgNTJ7e64i3iPwHaEJ%26pid%3DApi%26h%3D160&f=1

John, are you really a Thai, or an Aussie thats gone Troppo?

[Jay]

I think if Sky would just fix their stupid, unresponsive, 4 second lag remote control that GETS PEOPLE STEAMING MAD, their share price would more than double.
I'm with you there, keep going to the wrong channel as you think it did not work!

[tqtq]

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/business/companies/viacomcbs-set-to-unveil-showtime-streaming-plans-for-australia-20200806-p55j3r.html

Viacom CBS pulled its content from Stan in Australia to launch their own streaming service. I don’t know if they’ll do the same with Foxtel here. I wonder if the launch of the new streaming service impact Sky NZ? I know Time Warner did a deal with Foxtel to launch their content on Binge. Any thoughts?

[Greekwatchdog]

Interesting Article in the Herald (Paywall) . It will be interesting update in 2 weeks.

[MarineSalvage]

I think the issue is that Sky will increasingly struggle for content. NRL and aotearoa super rugby is holding them together. I love AFL but I have an annual sub direct with AFL for every game, live and on demand replay plus the drafts and all of the weekly shows, Sky shows a few games here and there.They are also the last place you’d stream a movie from and don’t have any cool tv series (not first run anyway)
I know everyone says they will get taken over but what are you really buying?? Easier to buy rights for major events and people come to you...
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/business/companies/viacomcbs-set-to-unveil-showtime-streaming-plans-for-australia-20200806-p55j3r.html

Viacom CBS pulled its content from Stan in Australia to launch their own streaming service. I don’t know if they’ll do the same with Foxtel here. I wonder if the launch of the new streaming service impact Sky NZ? I know Time Warner did a deal with Foxtel to launch their content on Binge. Any thoughts?

[Dlownz]

Umm watchmen gangs of London. Hands maid tale just to name a few.... This is neon I'm talking about but amazing. There's only a handful of shows I like to watch on Netflix now so 90 percent of my viewing is on neon now

[MarineSalvage]

This underlined the point neon is not a content creator like Netflix amazon and Disney... as other production houses go vertically integrated Sky will be left showing reruns of Shortland St
Umm watchmen gangs of London. Hands maid tale just to name a few.... This is neon I'm talking about but amazing. There's only a handful of shows I like to watch on Netflix now so 90 percent of my viewing is on neon now

[Dlownz]

Oliver Mander: Sky TV faces its do or die moment
https://nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12354585

[Dlownz]

I actually don't know if Netflix will survive with there concept. They rely on continuous growth which at some point will stop and retract. I think the retraction will come post covid (their saving grace).

[Dlownz]

Sorry to non premium subscribers

[tqtq]

I think the issue is that Sky will increasingly struggle for content. NRL and aotearoa super rugby is holding them together. I love AFL but I have an annual sub direct with AFL for every game, live and on demand replay plus the drafts and all of the weekly shows, Sky shows a few games here and there.They are also the last place you’d stream a movie from and don’t have any cool tv series (not first run anyway)
I know everyone says they will get taken over but what are you really buying?? Easier to buy rights for major events and people come to you...

It’s challenging times for content aggregators that’s for sure. The challenge for Sky is whether they can hang onto big content libraries such as Time Warner, Discovery and Viacom CBS, especially given their stranglehold on sports is slipping. I just hope they can get their broadband side going because they do have an awesome database and good revenue to build up that side of the business. But then again ip advertising might given them an opportunity to provide a cheap ad tier Neon product and that might make all the difference.

[percy]

Sorry to non premium subscribers

I have just enjoyed reading the article.Excellent..
Read it through my membership tp ChCh City library's "Press Reader".
Just have to remember it is in The Weekend Herald".

[Bjauck]

I have some kind of family sharing on the back of my sons Google Music Account ( I think).
NO ADS at all WITH YOUTUBE. It transforms it. I recall when we used to buy DVD's of concerts.
Now they just stream whenever we want via YouTube.
It is just so so good.
Youtube premium for ad-free play is about $16/month.

[tqtq]

I'm not sure how credible this is but the rumours are out there and what will this mean for SKT?
Personally I doubt that they'd go direct in NZ as the numbers would be too small.
I presume Disco are just interested in Mediaworks for their local production facility / capability & next to nothing price?

Discovery Inc. will share details on a new direct-to-consumer offering in the very near future, said CEO David Zaslav during the company’s earnings call. Describing the product as “a new SUV,” Zaslav said, “We’ve got a lane. It’s almost like that lane is ours.” Noting that TLC hit all-time ratings highs last quarter, Zaslav said what separates Discovery brands are genres that are “relevant and durable,” and short production schedules that enable speedy content development.

[TideMan]

We have a cut-down sub to Sky ($28 per month) that we use only for rugby.
Everything else, we stream.
We've found Beama.com is excellent. It is free through your library (well, ChCh Library anyway) and has a wealth of movies, etc.
At present we're totally hooked on "Un Village Francais".

[tqtq]

We have a cut-down sub to Sky ($28 per month) that we use only for rugby.
Everything else, we stream.
We've found Beama.com is excellent. It is free through your library (well, ChCh Library anyway) and has a wealth of movies, etc.
At present we're totally hooked on "Un Village Francais".

Thanks for the Beama tip. Will check it out.

[MarineSalvage]

AFL, NHL International, NRL Disney, all proving you can roll out direct to consumer pretty easily... I’d think Discovery will have a pretty good back catalogue and a stand alone offering would be strong
I'm not sure how credible this is but the rumours are out there and what will this mean for SKT?
Personally I doubt that they'd go direct in NZ as the numbers would be too small.
I presume Disco are just interested in Mediaworks for their local production facility / capability & next to nothing price?

Discovery Inc. will share details on a new direct-to-consumer offering in the very near future, said CEO David Zaslav during the company’s earnings call. Describing the product as “a new SUV,” Zaslav said, “We’ve got a lane. It’s almost like that lane is ours.” Noting that TLC hit all-time ratings highs last quarter, Zaslav said what separates Discovery brands are genres that are “relevant and durable,” and short production schedules that enable speedy content development.

[GR8DAY]

......back to what's important. I "feel" that this coming week we might see the market wake up as to just how under-valued our stock is. Im pretty sure this will be one of those moments in time we all look back and think...."bugger, why didnt I mortgage the house and put it all on SKY ( not a recommendation BTW!). When the Share Price has recovered to that 25/30c level these current 14c shares will look like an absolute steal. All IMHO.

[mistaTea]

I am back from the naughty corner now!

Who missed me?!

[dompf]

I am back from the naughty corner now!

Who missed me?!

Welcome back mate.

[Waltzing]

i have looked at the new releases. Does anyone have any idea when this company can pay a dividend again? under valued it may be but by what metric?

[mistaTea]

i have looked at the new releases. Does anyone have any idea when this company can pay a dividend again? under valued it may be but by what metric?
The Chairman touted FY22 for dividend resumption.

[RupertBear]

I am back from the naughty corner now!

Who missed me?!

Welcome back mista Tea. The Bear missed you. What did you do wrong? I musta missed it ;)

[mistaTea]

Welcome back mista Tea. The Bear missed you. What did you do wrong? I musta missed it ;)

Retaliated to a mean comment by someone by saying an even more mean comment back and made him cry.

Got banned from ST for 1 week for my troubles.

[tqtq]

AFL, NHL International, NRL Disney, all proving you can roll out direct to consumer pretty easily... I’d think Discovery will have a pretty good back catalogue and a stand alone offering would be strong

Just hope Martin can lock Discovery down Like he did NZ Rugby. Might make them think twice about Mediaworks purchase.

[RRR]

Welcome back mistaTea - we surely missed you!
Where is ogg? Is he banned as well?

[Ogg]

Cheers, me too. I reacted rather than responded DOH! i have a stepdaughter for one learning about investing in shares using sharsies . I guess she had better learn about all the the up ramping and down ramping games as they are a fact of life to be beware of when investing/trading. I am easing out of my watchdog role here after many years of holding pumpers and dumpers to account, we dont want to end up like H/C where there are bountiful games going on amongst the genuine posters.Reading the SKT thread on H/C is interesting
Mr Tea and ogg are treading a fine line here too imo. cheers, JT

I admit, I've been ramping this stock hard but take a look at this:

This thread started 14 years ago but 50% of the posts are less than 6 months old.

Where at maximum uncertainty right now. Everyone has an opinion on the stock. There's going to be both ramping and down ramping in a moment like this.

The NZ herald is right, it's do or die time...

"Didi mao, didi mao"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ReXxhlwVcQ

[Ogg]

Welcome back mistaTea - we surely missed you!
Where is ogg? Is he banned as well?

Been back since Friday:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4216-SKT-Sky-Network-Television-Limited&p=834653&viewfull=1#post834653

[tqtq]

It’d really be awesome to hear mistatea and ogg’s and anyone else’s guesstimate of where the sp might be at:
1. Annual report time
2. End of year
3. Cure time (if there is one)
4. At Olympics time
Thanks

[mistaTea]

It’d really be awesome to hear mistatea and ogg’s and anyone else’s guesstimate of where the sp might be at:
1. Annual report time
2. End of year
3. Cure time (if there is one)
4. At Olympics time
Thanks

Hey mate - happy to discuss the pros and cons of sky as a going concern - but the one area I try to avoid is predictions on SP movements.

I have no idea what the market will do in the short term and have no special insights in that regard.

Fortunately we don’t have to wait long for the AR - two weeks will fly by and then Mr Market will put us out of our misery by making an assessment and setting the price 😎

[Ogg]

It’d really be awesome to hear mistatea and ogg’s and anyone else’s guesstimate of where the sp might be at:
1. Annual report time
2. End of year
3. Cure time (if there is one)
4. At Olympics time
Thanks

1. 30c
2. See this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_delisted_from_the_New_Zealand_Ex change

[tqtq]

Hey mate - happy to discuss the pros and cons of sky as a going concern - but the one area I try to avoid is predictions on SP movements.

I have no idea what the market will do in the short term and have no special insights in that regard.

Fortunately we don’t have to wait long for the AR - two weeks will fly by and then Mr Market will put us out of our misery by making an assessment and setting the price 😎

Sensible reply, thanks mistatea, yes the market will always go it’s own way, irrespective of where we think it should be, as demonstrated in recent months. Should be and interesting lead up to the annual report even before the presentation.

[tqtq]

1. 30c
2. See this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_delisted_from_the_New_Zealand_Ex change

1. Is pretty close to what other people are saying to I hope that’s the consensus
2. Hilarious.
Thanks Ogg.

[tqtq]

1. 30c
2. See this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_delisted_from_the_New_Zealand_Ex change


It’d really be awesome to hear mistatea and ogg’s and anyone else’s guesstimate of where the sp might be at:
1. Annual report time
2. End of year
3. Cure time (if there is one)
4. At Olympics time
Thanks

I’m not as sensible as some of the wise men in this blog, so here is my call, for what it’s worth (which is not much).
1. 29c
2. 38c
3. 70c
4. 55c
Disclaimer, just a complete guess, based upon nothing. Not advice. Dyor.

[Quantitative Easing]

I am back from the naughty corner now!

Who missed me?!

It was a hard week without Bhagwaan. Welcome back sir.

[Quantitative Easing]

1. 30c
2. See this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_delisted_from_the_New_Zealand_Ex change

Ah yes i remember Opus being bought out by WSP. Share price was trading under $1 at the time and WSP offered $1.92. This will be far bigger in terms of % gain.

[tqtq]

1. 30c
2. See this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_companies_delisted_from_the_New_Zealand_Ex change


Ah yes i remember Opus being bought out by WSP. Share price was trading under $1 at the time and WSP offered $1.92. This will be far bigger in terms of % gain.

I hope the % return is similar to Black Crane Captial’s return on their Chorus investment.

[mistaTea]

It was a hard week without Bhagwaan. Welcome back sir.

Thank you my child.

Tum mera sabse accha beta hai.

I bless you with the ability to own a portion of Sky TV NZ - a business that , on the balance of probabilities, will be worth more in the future than the market says it is today.

[Quantitative Easing]

Thank you my child.

Tum mera sabse accha beta hai.



Lol what does that say? It's cool if you do speak hindi though. It is piaoliang as the chinese would say.

I've been trying to learn mandarin and hindi myself. I know that beta means child and tum means you and mera= me.

[mistaTea]

Lol what does that say? It's cool if you do speak hindi though. It is piaoliang as the chinese would say.

I've been trying to learn mandarin and hindi myself. I know that beta means child and tum means you and mera= me.

Beta means son (bacca is child). Mera means my. The closest word to me is ‘mai’ I think.

Anyway, I said that you are my best/favourite son 😎

[Ferg]

under valued it may be but by what metric?
I'm grappling with this share and I too can't can't see the metric by which it is under-valued. I WANT to get into it but in following everyone's instruction (to DYOR) I'm struggling to see the value.

I'm projecting (i.e. guessing) NTA of around 7c per share so there is no easy win on that basis. I'm forecasting (i.e wild guessing) NPAT and FCF of around 2c-3c per share for FY20 and FY21. Assuming dividends resume at 1c per share ($18m cash cost to SKT) then a value of 25c implies a no growth discount rate of 4% which feels low for the risk inherent in this share. Even if SKT managed a dividend of 2c in FY22 then a share price of 30c implies a no growth discount rate of around 7% - again this feels low plus investors have to wait 2 years. EPS of 3c with a PE of 8-10 implies a share price of 24-30c - so it could be undervalued on that basis but I still can't see where the growth is coming from.

Why am I assessing this as risky which deserves a high discount rate and no growth for dividend valuation purposes?

Satellite revenues are falling and being replaced by online subscribers at the rate of 20-25c per $1 lost which is resulting in a falling top line (I know I'm stating the obvious).
I believe certain costs like transmission will be relatively fixed with annual CPI ratchets so they will be hard to reduce in line with the fall in revenues, unless the new CEO has been busy in this area already.
Overseas programme commitments involve deep pockets and big balls - SKT has a wall of content coming at them (e.g. the last IR had content purchases of $161m but only $138m was amortised). Trying to turn around the cost of fixed content contracts is like trying to turn the QE2. It will be hard to reduce the content costs without having them languish on the Balance Sheet resulting in future impairments. Future programme commitments per the IR over the next 5 years total $890m, without taking into account non-contract purchases.
Lastly, the fixed assets are heavily aged - the last AR had historical cost of $930m, a book value of $163 and annual depreciation of $71m - I reckon future investment will likely be needed unless SKT can release cash from their Mt Wellington site (I assume they still own this?)
In conclusion, historical EBITDA and NPAT are long gone not to be seen again. Hence the share price reset.


As I said, I would like to get into this but it feels like a gamble rather than a risk-free investment with little to no prospects for organic growth.

Disclosure: interested observer and wannabe SKT investor but not currently a holder. Financial experience with a broadcaster.

[mistaTea]

I'm grappling with this share and I too can't can't see the metric by which it is under-valued. I WANT to get into it but in following everyone's instruction (to DYOR) I'm struggling to see the value.

I'm projecting (i.e. guessing) NTA of around 7c per share so there is no easy win on that basis. I'm forecasting (i.e wild guessing) NPAT and FCF of around 2c-3c per share for FY20 and FY21. Assuming dividends resume at 1c per share ($18m cash cost to SKT) then a value of 25c implies a no growth discount rate of 4% which feels low for the risk inherent in this share. Even if SKT managed a dividend of 2c in FY22 then a share price of 30c implies a no growth discount rate of around 7% - again this feels low plus investors have to wait 2 years. EPS of 3c with a PE of 8-10 implies a share price of 24-30c - so it could be undervalued on that basis but I still can't see where the growth is coming from.

Why am I assessing this as risky which deserves a high discount rate and no growth for dividend valuation purposes?

Satellite revenues are falling and being replaced at the rate of 20-25c per $1 lost which is resulting in a falling top line (I know I'm stating the obvious).
I believe certain costs like transmission will be relatively fixed with annual CPI ratchets so they will be hard to reduce in line with the fall in revenues, unless the new CEO has been busy in this area already.
Overseas programme commitments involve deep pockets and big balls - SKT has a wall of content coming at them (e.g. the last IR had content purchases of $161 but only $138m was amortised). Trying to turn around the cost of fixed content contracts is like trying to turn the QE2. It will be hard to reduce the content costs without having them languish on the Balance Sheet resulting in future impairments.
Lastly, the fixed assets are heavily aged - the last AR had historical cost of $930m, a book value of $163 and annual depreciation of $71m - I reckon future investment will likely be needed unless SKT can release cash from their Mt Wellington site (I assume they still own this?)
In conclusion, historical EBITDA and NPAT are long gone not to be seen again. Hence the share price reset.


As I said, I would like to get into this but it feels like a gamble rather than a risk-free investment with little to no prospects for organic growth.

Disclosure: interested observer and wannabe SKT investor but not currently a holder. Financial experience with a broadcaster.

I stopped reading about half way through the second paragraph. You don’t understand the business so you should absolutely not invest in it.

I’m not being mean here either - just honest. GAAP earnings bear very little relation to owner earnings for a business like sky. You are probably better off looking at other companies that own more tangible assets and whose GAAP earnings provide a fair benchmark for real earnings.

All the best.

[Ogg]

Decent post Ferg.

I agree with what you are saying.

Everyone is well aware of the "bad news", and so the share price has been reset.

The question is "what next"?

As a stand only business, over the long term, it looks like an average investment. Not great given the risks and uncertainty but not bad given the discounted price. Some investors are probably asking why bother taking the risk for an average return, especially if you have to wait a long time.

The game changer is a merger. By merging with a telecommunication company (like Vodafone) it can remove the "capital risk". By merging with a content creator (like Discovery Inc) it can remove the "content risks".

You're taking a gamble buying this stock but I think the odds are in your favour, as the balance sheet is clean after the $159m placement so the company will be able to at least tread water while a suitable "partner" can be arranged. Hopefully at an attractive premium price, sooner rather than later, thus avoiding the long risky wait for an "average return".

[mistaTea]

Decent post Ferg.

I agree with what you are saying.

Everyone is well aware of the "bad news", and so the share price has been reset.

The question is "what next"?

As a stand only business, over the long term, it looks like an average investment. Not great given the risks and uncertainty but not bad given the discounted price. Some investors are probably asking why bother taking the risk for an average return, especially if you have to wait a long time.

The game changer is a merger. By merging with a telecommunication company (like Vodafone) it can remove the "capital risk". By merging with a content creator (like Discovery Inc) it can remove the "content risks".

You're taking a gamble buying this stock but I think the odds are in your favour, as the balance sheet is clean after the $159m placement so the company will be able to at least tread water while a suitable "partner" can be arranged. Hopefully at an attractive premium price, sooner rather than later, thus avoiding the long risky wait for an "average return".

Purchasing this business because you are hoping for a merger is, imo, not sound investing. If Ferg is a gambler, then that approach would make sense.

There are essentially four key main rules to investing:

1. You have to be able to understand the business
2. The business must have some kind of competitive advantage
3. IDEALLY, the business should be run by honest and capable management
4. And finally, no matter how ‘wonderful’ a business might be - nothing is worth an infinite price. So the price you pay needs to make sense relative to what you expect the business to produce over time given the vicissitudes of life.

Those four rules are outlined by Charlie Munger. They act like hurdles - you don’t move to the next one until the previous step is genuinely satisfied.

It seems clear to me that Ferg has stumbled at step 1. Understanding the business means truly, deeply understanding Sky TV and the industry it operates in, how it makes money etc etc. The fact he was even referring to GAAP earnings highlights a major shortcoming in how he views/understands this business. There is no point moving on to try and analyse the rest until you really understand the business.

So though my message may be blunt in the Charlie Munger fashion, I think I am doing Ferg (and other readers) a favour. Don’t buy the business because the SP ‘looks cheap’, don’t buy it because Ogg is promising a merger, don’t buy it because your mate says he quite likes NEON now (a one up on Wall Street approach)...and if you are an investor (as opposed to a gambler) then if you aren’t prepared to own your share of the business for ten years you have no business owning it for ten minutes.

Good luck to everyone.

[Dlownz]

I’m not as sensible as some of the wise men in this blog, so here is my call, for what it’s worth (which is not much).
1. 29c
2. 38c
3. 70c
4. 55c
Disclaimer, just a complete guess, based upon nothing. Not advice. Dyor.

1. 17c
2. 21c
3. Whens that lol.
4. 19c

[Ferg]

You keep referring to GAAP but I didn't so please do not misrepresent what I said. I used normalised earnings and projections thereon.

That aside, enligthten me. If you aren't going to value a share using NTA (as a floor) or dividend yield or EPS/PE, then enlighten me as to this alternate valuation method. I'm also curious to hear about the "real earnings", keeping in mind I undertook a normalisation approach.

[tqtq]

1. 17c
2. 21c
3. Whens that lol.
4. 19c

Interesting. So you reckon we’ll go back to the CR terp and then for the sp not to move much from there. 3. I hope sometime soon, at least for sports sake.

[mistaTea]

You keep referring to GAAP but I didn't so please do not misrepresent what I said. I used normalised earnings and projections thereon.

That aside, enligthten me. If you aren't going to value a share using NTA (as a floor) or dividend yield or EPS/PE, then enlighten me as to this alternate valuation method. I'm also curious to hear about the "real earnings", keeping in mind I undertook a normalisation approach.

I’m not doing the work for you mate.

2c per share NPAT as you claim sounds very GAAP to me - and in line with the top end of projected profit (pre COVID adjustment which now seems to be a worst case scenario that did not eventuate)

And if you aren’t referring to GAAP and have some concept of ‘normalised earnings’ then Christ only knows what that is because the figures you have touted have absolutely no bearing on how much money the business is actually earning.

All the best, I’m sure you will make the right call in the end based on investing within your circle of competence.

In my experience - if an investment doesn’t scream out at you as blindingly obvious to invest in, you should just move on.

[Ferg]

Decent post Ferg.

I agree with what you are saying.

Everyone is well aware of the "bad news", and so the share price has been reset.

The question is "what next"?

As a stand only business, over the long term, it looks like an average investment. Not great given the risks and uncertainty but not bad given the discounted price. Some investors are probably asking why bother taking the risk for an average return, especially if you have to wait a long time.

The game changer is a merger. By merging with a telecommunication company (like Vodafone) it can remove the "capital risk". By merging with a content creator (like Discovery Inc) it can remove the "content risks".

You're taking a gamble buying this stock but I think the odds are in your favour, as the balance sheet is clean after the $159m placement so the company will be able to at least tread water while a suitable "partner" can be arranged. Hopefully at an attractive premium price, sooner rather than later, thus avoiding the long risky wait for an "average return".

Thanks Ogg. I agree the Balance Sheet looks stronger but I'm picking another goodwill hit - I realise that is intangible and does not impact the NTA and/or future earnings but as a raw headline it will be uncomfortable reading for the average uninformed punter. Whilst we will see a benefit to interest costs due to debt reduction, this will be muddied by IFRS16 in future results (albeit with a reduction in some opex).

I agree it looks cheap compared to historical prices, but we are looking at a business where the number of shares on issue has ballooned from 389m to 1.78b. Anything divided by 1.78b is going to be a small number - as you say "what next" and I ask how small? This could be restored with a share consolidation but that's just shuffling deck chairs. A takeover would be the white knight, assuming regulatory approvals can be obtained. The only way I can see cash being released is by not replacing an aged asset base, which is a no growth scenario with its own issues. A common phrase in TV is "the trend is your friend" - and the trends are not good at the moment. They will turn, but it's a case of when and at what value and who has the biggest kahunas to see this out. I believe capital injections and/or share issues will be needed for acquisition growth, whereas organic growth isn't there. IMO that's a hard sell to investors.

Happy to be proved wrong. I could write more but I need to keep my posts short.

[Ogg]

We need to wait until results to have decent arguments, otherwise we're just debating old news. This company is going through change fast so it's hard to keep up with the most recent statistics. It should really be reporting every quarter, not 6 months.

Until then, it's all about "themes". If you believe the recovery "story" then invest. If your a "numbers" guy you need to wait until results before investing.

Recent themes:

- Recent trend in streaming post Covid-19 (ie lightbox merger etc)
- The sports renegotiation processes, has the company saved lots of money?
- Satellite churn given the amount of advertising Sky has been doing recently. Are people happy staying at home now?
- Update on restructure, how many people have they fired.

With the cost savings, growth in streaming, reduced satellite churn, and $159m placement, it should provided a decent "results" for people to digest and get their teeth into.

What I'm really looking for in the results: "is Sky maintaining it's market position as a leading player in NZ media." If answer is "yes" (which is likely), I'm happy.

[Dlownz]

Interesting. So you reckon we’ll go back to the CR terp and then for the sp not to move much from there. 3. I hope sometime soon, at least for sports sake.
Its a hard stock to guess. When it was 65 cents did that not seem too cheap. Divided by 3 equals almost 22 cents a share. I would like to see this back to 30cents a share would would equal 90 cents a share. Let's hope.