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Ogg
18-08-2020, 03:26 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/league/warriors/122481219/warriors-forced-by-nrl-to-end-naming-rights-deal-with-vodafone

I also find the timing of this very strange. It could be nothing and most probably is...or it could be the start of the great media-telco consolidation in Australasia. Needs to happen sooner than later if they want to survive.

Vodafone brand is dead anyway. See my previous posts about this.

Getty
18-08-2020, 03:29 PM
I’m pretty sure there are a lot of behind the scenes deals like that going on.

I reckon that if Sky’s going to get taken over it’s more likely going to be from a Comcast or similar player that can bring some scale, content, adtech and US$ that might benefit from Sky NZ’s rugby deals and the next to nothing US$ price.

Whatever the case, the SP will get a nice boost.

I'm not saying you're wrong, but why would Comcast want to spend even @$239M Sky Mcap @13.7c, to get their content here.
They would be better to do a mutual on sell rights deal with Sky, that both parties could benefit from, without handing capex over upfront.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 03:33 PM
I'm not saying you're wrong, but why would Comcast want to spend even @$239M Sky Mcap @13.7c, to get their content here.
They would be better to do a mutual on sell rights deal with Sky, that both parties could benefit from, without handing capex over upfront.

Comcast would effectively be getting Sky NZ for free when added to their business given Comcast’s P/E. They need more original content which sky may be able to generate if it heads in that direction. And they are in a better position to increase profit then sky is on its own.

Ogg
18-08-2020, 03:33 PM
I'm not saying you're wrong, but why would Comcast want to spend even @$239M Sky Mcap @13.7c, to get their content here.
They would be better to do a mutual on sell rights deal with Sky, that both parties could benefit from, without handing capex over upfront.

Cause they own Sky UK.

Sky NZ could be run from overseas and absorbed into their existing operations, thus saving on capex.

Sky NZ is only valued today at USD $150m.

Why rent when you can buy?

tqtq
18-08-2020, 03:34 PM
Further to my post above, you might ask... "why doesn't Discovery just buy Sky instead of Mediaworks"?

The answer: Sky is worth more to Infratil/Brooksfield because of their existing relationship with Sky and also because Sky is entering the broadband market. THerefore Infratil/Brooksfield will always likely outbid Discovery for Sky. Rather than Infratil/Brooksfield and Discovery fighting over Sky, and pushing up the price, Discovery gets Mediaworks from Infratil/Brooksfield for a discounted price, as part of Discovery agreeing to stay out of Sky.

That makes sense to me.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 03:39 PM
Further to my post above, you might ask... "why doesn't Discovery just buy Sky instead of Mediaworks"?

The answer: Sky is worth more to Infratil/Brooksfield because of their existing relationship with Sky and also because Sky is entering the broadband market. THerefore Infratil/Brooksfield will always likely outbid Discovery for Sky. Rather than Infratil/Brooksfield and Discovery fighting over Sky, and pushing up the price, Discovery gets Mediaworks from Infratil/Brooksfield for a discounted price, as part of Discovery agreeing to stay out of Sky.

Vodafone would also be wise to secure content to be ensure their dominance in the 5g era. Sport and entertainment is what people want to watch. Buying sky is the easiest place to get it.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 03:42 PM
Wow. Forsythe Barr actually had something positive to say about Sky.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517346/analysts-pick-covid-19-losers-on-nzx.html

“However, our analysts expect the risk to near term forecast earnings is net positive, with a positive bias signalled for ABA, AIA (slightly positive), AIR (slightly positive), FBU, FSF, NZX, SKL, SKT, SUM and THL (slightly positive).

Ogg
18-08-2020, 03:46 PM
Vodafone would also be wise to secure content to be ensure their dominance in the 5g era. Sport and entertainment is what people want to watch. Buying sky is the easiest place to get it.

The future for New Zealand telecommunication companies, ie Spark and Vodafone, is to follow the recent trend of American telecommunication companies and be more vertically and horizontally integrated and to also generate more exclusive content.

They don't just want to sell you access to data. They want to create and then sell the data, as there is a greater margin when doing this.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 04:42 PM
The future for New Zealand telecommunication companies, ie Spark and Vodafone, is to follow the recent trend of American telecommunication companies and be more vertically and horizontally integrated and to also generate more exclusive content.

They don't just want to sell you access to data. They want to create and then sell the data, as there is a greater margin when doing this.

The acquisition of Sky would help them create a nice little data heavy / dependent ecosystem.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 05:11 PM
Interesting article (relevant to Sky) on how Foxtel has repositioned its business:
https://www.channelnews.com.au/foxtel-now-a-technology-company-that-delivers-content/

tqtq
18-08-2020, 05:13 PM
And how content aggregators (yes there is a future in this model) might make money from content providers such as Disney+ that offer their own streaming service: https://medium.com/wetek/content-aggregation-as-the-future-of-streaming-ddca6d49a337

dompf
18-08-2020, 05:34 PM
And how content aggregators (yes there is a future in this model) might make money from content providers such as Disney+ that offer their own streaming service: https://medium.com/wetek/content-aggregation-as-the-future-of-streaming-ddca6d49a337

There's a place for aggregation on TV given all the options in the world with what content people want to watch. I'm all in for aggregated content where you pay for the content you actually consume and want. Definitely a good model IMO - instead of having several subscriptions which is a juggle to manage.

bottomfeeder
18-08-2020, 05:37 PM
Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 06:01 PM
There's a place for aggregation on TV given all the options in the world with what content people want to watch. I'm all in for aggregated content where you pay for the content you actually consume and want. Definitely a good model IMO - instead of having several subscriptions which is a juggle to manage.

If it's all in the Sky / Neon ecosystem then Sky becomes the ramp / promotional platform for those content providers. It works better than an android / smart tv service because Sky has a billing service attached to it.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 06:02 PM
You'd have to think 2x min from where it's sitting at the moment. It's mind blowing how undervalued this stock is.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 06:03 PM
Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

You'd have to think 2x min from where it's sitting at the moment. It's mind blowing how undervalued this stock is.

Ogg
18-08-2020, 07:21 PM
Mind you a takeover would have to pay more than the 13.7 cents per share on the NZX. Who knows what the final price would have to be. May be too expensive.

It's easy to work this out.

The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.

Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.

Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.

If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.

Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc

GR8DAY
18-08-2020, 09:14 PM
Thanks for all the effort you're putting into this OGG.... really appreciate it. Comforting to see your simple calculations for a possible buyout putting the value at or around 32cps.
I'd be pretty chuffed with 25c TBH, but 32c will do very nicely thank you. Will be buying more tomorrow me thinks. GLTAH.

tqtq
18-08-2020, 10:00 PM
It's easy to work this out.

The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.

Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.

Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.

If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.

Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc

That’s a pretty reasonable analysis for today’s market. But kick the can down the road and into the middle of next year when we’ve got several Covid vaccines, sport is back to normal, Rugby Pass is making money, the share market is booming, and the Olympics are on and I think any takeover offer would be at the higher end of that ebitda.

Point being: at least double today. Or even more tomorrow. Or some sweet dividends and a higher sp if there’s not takeover. Woo hoo!

Ogg
18-08-2020, 10:59 PM
That’s a pretty reasonable analysis for today’s market. But kick the can down the road and into the middle of next year when we’ve got several Covid vaccines, sport is back to normal, Rugby Pass is making money, the share market is booming, and the Olympics are on and I think any takeover offer would be at the higher end of that ebitda.

Point being: at least double today. Or even more tomorrow. Or some sweet dividends and a higher sp if there’s not takeover. Woo hoo!

This is where me and other members, such as Mista disagree.

Waiting for the rebound, and then selling is risky. The media industry is highly volatile. Just look at the history of Mediaworks! Changes are happening fast in the industry (as they always have been) and it's very uncertain even 12 months from now.

It will likely require more capital and investment to compete with other international companies going forward. For example, Discovery have made moves into NZ with their recent acquisitions. Disney has pulled content from Sky and going direct. Sporting rights are getting more expensive with competition from Spark. There are huge headwinds!

Neon, although growing nicely and benefiting from Covid, will continue to require investment and more content. The margin is small so it's a long term game. Does Sky have what it takes to continue this investment long term? It's likely going to be 10 years+ for decent returns, and even then, likely longer. This game is best played by the big boys, ie Netflix, Amazon etc.

With the selling of OSB it appears that management have finally ceded and now see the best option for investors is to divest and sell off assets. The satellite business and brand will be sold next, ie the entire company.

It's just a question of how much can you sell it for. Will it be $1, like with Stuff.co.nz and OSB. Or will it be like Sky UK and end in a bidding war at 15x EBITA. It think it will be somewhere in between.

Getty
19-08-2020, 07:57 AM
It's easy to work this out.

The Infratil/Brooksfield takeover of Vodafone NZ was done at 7x EBITA.

Given that SKY has confirmed guidance for FY20 and also that analysts, such as the one from Forsyth Barr posted from the user above, suggest that Sky should benefit from Covid, then it's safe to assume that Sky's FY21 guidance is a reasonable figure to rely on.

Sky's FY21 midrange EBITA guidance is $115m (note that this number is 50% less than just 2 years ago). Factor in less CAPEX from the sale of OSB and it's very likely that this figure will be reached.

If we use a conservative 5x EBITA, then that puts the valuation of Sky at $575m or 32c per share. More than a 100% premium to today's closing price.

Will someone pay more than 13.7c? Dunno, you'd have to go down the line and ask the many different companies who might be interested in doing so, such as; Infratil, Brooksfield, Discovery, Comcast (UniverialNBC), AT&T (HBO), ViacomCBS, Telstra, Newscorp, Spark, Trilogy International Partners, Nine Entertainment plus potentially many others etc etc etc

"Harvey Weinstein, I want you to go down to Noo Zealand, and check out that little TV company,
See what they are doing different to us"
But Sir, do I have to?"
"Yes, now hurry up, I've heard there are others sniffing around!"...

Dr JPG.

Half price vasectomies if booked before CUT OFF time.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 10:34 AM
When you're holding 1,337,751 @ .146 and the takeover comes.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9aqopEQr7wI

Getty
19-08-2020, 10:42 AM
looks like you're ready to get a shot away..

tqtq
19-08-2020, 10:58 AM
This is where me and other members, such as Mista disagree.

Waiting for the rebound, and then selling is risky. The media industry is highly volatile. Just look at the history of Mediaworks! Changes are happening fast in the industry (as they always have been) and it's very uncertain even 12 months from now.

It will likely require more capital and investment to compete with other international companies going forward. For example, Discovery have made moves into NZ with their recent acquisitions. Disney has pulled content from Sky and going direct. Sporting rights are getting more expensive with competition from Spark. There are huge headwinds!

Neon, although growing nicely and benefiting from Covid, will continue to require investment and more content. The margin is small so it's a long term game. Does Sky have what it takes to continue this investment long term? It's likely going to be 10 years+ for decent returns, and even then, likely longer. This game is best played by the big boys, ie Netflix, Amazon etc.

With the selling of OSB it appears that management have finally ceded and now see the best option for investors is to divest and sell off assets. The satellite business and brand will be sold next, ie the entire company.

It's just a question of how much can you sell it for. Will it be $1, like with Stuff.co.nz and OSB. Or will it be like Sky UK and end in a bidding war at 15x EBITA. It think it will be somewhere in between.

Sky is an attractive takeover target today. But its not distressed like Stuff or MW so its unlikely to happen anytime soon in my opinion as it will be too expensive by comparison to other opportunities in today's market especially when companies are hoarding cash. (Note: I hope there is some kind of takeover offer soon as it will put sky in the news for the right reasons and highlight its value and push the sp up). Which leads me to believe that any takeover is more likely to happen once things return to normal. Therefore, I believe that a likely scenario is some kind of small rebound when things return to normal and the board (which have a responsibility to try and execute their future plans) will attempt to add some value by way of mobile / fibre reselling, or content creation, marketing to their database etc. But agree the media industry is being disrupted by the majors so anything could happen. Whatever the case, it makes for interesting watching.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 11:04 AM
Sky is an attractive takeover target today. But its not distressed like Stuff or MW so its unlikely to happen anytime soon in my opinion as it will be too expensive by comparison to other opportunities in today's market especially when companies are hoarding cash. (Note: I hope there is some kind of takeover offer soon as it will put sky in the news for the right reasons and highlight its value and push the sp up). Which leads me to believe that any takeover is more likely to happen once things return to normal. Therefore, I believe that a likely scenario is some kind of small rebound when things return to normal and the board (which have a responsibility to try and execute their future plans) will attempt to add some value by way of mobile / fibre reselling, or content creation, marketing to their database etc. But agree the media industry is being disrupted by the majors so anything could happen. Whatever the case, it makes for interesting watching.

It's a bit like the game "Deal or no Deal". I'd rather just take the cash then open another suitcase.

You can always buy Infratil shares after the takeover. Like I've said before on the forum. It's likely Vodafone and Sky will be relisted on the NZX 5 years from now at a huge premium. This would likely push up Infratil's shareprice considerably, similar to their Z Energy investment. You'd make better gains by doubling up here quickly on SKT and then putting the profits into IFT.

allfromacell
19-08-2020, 11:07 AM
It's a bit like the game "Deal or no Deal". I'd rather just take the cash then open another suitcase.

You can always buy Infratil shares after the takeover. Like I've said before on the forum. It's likely Vodafone and Sky will be relisted on the NZX 5 years from now at a huge premium. This would likely push up Infratil's shareprice considerably, similar to their Z Energy investment. You'd make better gains by doubling up here quickly on SKT and then putting the profits into IFT.

Do you have an exit strategy in mind for if a takeover doesn't eventuate?

Ogg
19-08-2020, 11:09 AM
Do you have an exit strategy in mind for if a takeover doesn't eventuate?

Yes, we (as in me and the people I know) will replace the board.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 11:11 AM
It's a bit like the game "Deal or no Deal". I'd rather just take the cash then open another suitcase.

You can always buy Infratil shares after the takeover. Like I've said before on the forum. It's likely Vodafone and Sky will be relisted on the NZX 5 years from now at a huge premium. This would likely push up Infratil's shareprice considerably, similar to their Z Energy investment. You'd make better gains by doubling up here quickly on SKT and then putting the profits into IFT.

I'd be happy taking the first deal too because it'd be a nice little earner given the current SP. I'm sitting on a very similar holding to your current holding. Would definitely buy more if I could.

mistaTea
19-08-2020, 04:27 PM
For any of you who are buying and holding Sky shares with the primary reason being that you expect a takeover, you may want to look at this job ad posted today:

https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50416286?type=standout#searchRequestToken=4ca90e1a-8076-4515-a337-72e1061e9e59

No way would they be hiring for this role if a merger with Vodafone was imminent.

Even if another player (like Discovery) was in negotiations with Sky, I doubt they would move along with hiring a senior position for the broadband strategy until the takeover was sorted.

To me it looks like pretty compelling evidence that takeover/merger discussions are not underway. Of course, I could be wrong - DYOR.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 04:34 PM
For any of you who are buying and holding Sky shares with the primary reason being that you expect a takeover, you may want to look at this job ad posted today:

https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50416286?type=standout#searchRequestToken=4ca90e1a-8076-4515-a337-72e1061e9e59

No way would they be hiring for this role if a merger with Vodafone was imminent.

Even if another player (like Discovery) was in negotiations with Sky, I doubt they would move along with hiring a senior position for the broadband strategy until the takeover was sorted.

To me it looks like pretty compelling evidence that takeover/merger discussions are not underway. Of course, I could be wrong - DYOR.

lol... I'd like to point out that I found the link first and PMed it to Mista. :cool:

It's a bluff people! Notice how they don't have "A full role profile can be provided upon request" at the bottom of the ad like all their other ads. It's cause they're an't one as it's a ghost listing. Besides, when Vodafone and Sky merge, they're keeping the Sky branding, so they're gonna need a head of broadband to convert their ~500k satellite subscribers.

whatsup
19-08-2020, 04:49 PM
Did anyone notice the T V ads for the movies for 2 months @ $10/ month?

Balance
19-08-2020, 04:51 PM
Did anyone notice the T V ads for the movies for 2 months @ $10/ month?

I get offered free movies for 3 months on a regular basis.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 04:53 PM
For any of you who are buying and holding Sky shares with the primary reason being that you expect a takeover, you may want to look at this job ad posted today:

https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50416286?type=standout#searchRequestToken=4ca90e1a-8076-4515-a337-72e1061e9e59

No way would they be hiring for this role if a merger with Vodafone was imminent.

Even if another player (like Discovery) was in negotiations with Sky, I doubt they would move along with hiring a senior position for the broadband strategy until the takeover was sorted.

To me it looks like pretty compelling evidence that takeover/merger discussions are not underway. Of course, I could be wrong - DYOR.

Geez, they're moving pretty slowly given that broadband was outlined as a new product offering in their CR presentation a few months ago.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 05:00 PM
Geez, they're moving pretty slowly given that broadband was outlined as a new product offering in their CR presentation a few months ago.

They did say they would do it next year, and they've already spent $5m on it.

https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/n/sky-tv-announces-plans-to-enter-broadband-market-next-year

Weather or not there's a takeover, broadband is getting rolled out and offered to Sky Subscribers one way or another. If Infratil do make a takeover, it will likely take them 2 years to merge the companies together fully. You're gonna need a "head of broadband" to start the process off first.

mistaTea
19-08-2020, 05:02 PM
Weather or not there's a takeover, broadband is getting rolled out and offered to Sky Subscribers one way or another. If Infratil do make a takeover, it will likely take them 2 years to merge the companies together fully. You're gonna need a "head of broadband" to start the process off first.

To quote a common response from Ogg... “just lol”

🤣🤣🤣

Ogg
19-08-2020, 05:04 PM
To quote a common response from Ogg... “just lol”

藍藍藍

Read the ad again. It doesn't even say "Head of Sky Broadband", it just says "Head of Broadband" :laugh:

Ogg
19-08-2020, 05:06 PM
Also, another quote from the ad

"as we move towards becoming a telecommunications provider"

Watch out Spark :D

Ogg
19-08-2020, 05:08 PM
Fixed:

"as we move towards becoming Vodafone"

tqtq
19-08-2020, 05:23 PM
They did say they would do it next year, and they've already spent $5m on it.

https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/n/sky-tv-announces-plans-to-enter-broadband-market-next-year

Weather or not there's a takeover, broadband is getting rolled out and offered to Sky Subscribers one way or another. If Infratil do make a takeover, it will likely take them 2 years to merge the companies together fully. You're gonna need a "head of broadband" to start the process off first.

It will be next year by the time they interview, check references, negotiate, candidate gives notice, then relocates (I think they'd be lucky to find a suitable candidate who's interested to fill from the local market but you never know). Then they got to put the product offering together. They're not breaking any speed records is all I'm saying.

Ferg
19-08-2020, 05:24 PM
I'm not so sure it is a ghost listing, per here : https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/b/sky-broadband?section=information
If the choice is a bluff or a real job, would Occam's razor suggest they are doing it...?

IMO given there are internet providers now offering uncapped plans to rural households, Sky may see this as a threat to (or an opportunity for?) it's rural satellite customer base. Whether this service is offered as a reseller of someone else's service, or as a genuine provider using technology and/or infrastructure already in place in Sky, remains to be seen. An interesting and smart move.

Edit: apologies but I see Ogg already posted a similar link....that's what happens when one is too slow in posting!


It's a bluff people! Notice how they don't have "A full role profile can be provided upon request" at the bottom of the ad like all their other ads. It's cause they're an't one as it's a ghost listing.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 05:41 PM
I'm not so sure it is a ghost listing, per here : https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/b/sky-broadband?section=information
If the choice is a bluff or a real job, would Occam's razor suggest they are doing it...?

IMO given there are internet providers now offering uncapped plans to rural households, Sky may see this as a threat to (or an opportunity for?) it's rural satellite customer base. Whether this service is offered as a reseller of someone else's service, or as a genuine provider using technology and/or infrastructure already in place in Sky, remains to be seen. An interesting and smart move.

That's a good point and yes it is a smart move to offer broadband to rural satellite customers to keep them signed up and to replace some of the lost revenue if the customer switches to Neon. I'm sure that Ogg knows that public companies can't place bluff recruitment ads, but you've got to love his theories.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 06:13 PM
Someone's put a rather large parcel of shares (appox 7m) up for sale this afternoon on the asx @ 0.185c aud

11862

Ferg
19-08-2020, 06:22 PM
Yeah - my bad with the timing of that post.....I was a bit slow.

I believe this is actually a double play in that a) they retain customers and b) they remove costs. As unlikely as this seems, the more valuable play might be the removal of costs - here is something I can talk about from experience....

Trying to deliver content online gets *really really* expensive very fast if you aren't careful. Expensive to the point where margins are either wafer thin once everyone takes their slice (studios included) or are non-existent. Given there are a number of factors with online content all heading in the same direction (i.e. upwards) being:



the number programmes on offer
the duration of programmes
the number of viewers
the increasing quality of transmission, and
increasing frequency of use per viewer


then the volume of data transmitted follows a geometric curve over time. Try and guess the basis on which CDN's charge? You guessed it.....data served. Sky has a few choices which are:



Use an Australian CDN with it's inherent issues of transmission across the Tasman (would you believe their USP is they have no earthquakes!?)
Or get real and use the largest international CDN (i.e. Akamai) with it's nodes up and down NZ, BUT the costs follow a geometric curve which eats into profit growth
Or invest in the technology locally via investment in bandwidth and peering relationships and they eliminate a HUGE % of costs from options a and b.


The CDN's use FUD to sell their service. So if you can't buy an ISP the next best option is to set one up. This is why I say it is a smart move given I reckon this is about more than hanging onto customers. They recognise Satellite is at the sunset/cash cow stage and they want to pivot into online. It's a smart move, assuming they can execute well and do not get cold feet. The upsell is that if they do this well, then they become the local CDN for other content aggregators/resellers.

Also - another point which I have been reading about is "content creation". Again, from experience, this is also *really really* expensive and IMO won't be considered a core activity for Sky (beyond Sport). Even if they did it, it would be chump change (and likely a loss maker) compared to offering Broadband and setting up a CDN.



That's a good point and yes it is a smart move to offer broadband to rural satellite customers to keep them signed up and to replace some of the lost revenue if the customer switches to Neon. I'm sure that Ogg knows that public companies can't place bluff recruitment ads, but you've got to love his theories.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 06:36 PM
Yeah - my bad with the timing of that post.....I was a bit slow.

I believe this is actually a double play in that a) they retain customers and b) they remove costs. As unlikely as this seems, the more valuable play might be the removal of costs - here is something I can talk about from experience....

Trying to deliver content online gets *really really* expensive very fast if you aren't careful. Expensive to the point where margins are either wafer thin once everyone takes their slice (studios included) or are non-existent. Given there are a number of factors with online content all heading in the same direction (i.e. upwards) being:



the number programmes on offer
the duration of programmes
the number of viewers
the increasing quality of transmission, and
increasing frequency of use per viewer


then the volume of data transmitted follows a geometric curve over time. Try and guess the basis on which CDN's charge? You guessed it.....data served. Sky has a few choices which are:



Use an Australian CDN with it's inherent issues of transmission across the Tasman (would you believe their USP is they have no earthquakes!?)
Or get real and use the largest international CDN (i.e. Akamai) with it's nodes up and down NZ, BUT the costs follow a geometric curve which eats into profit growth
Or invest in the technology locally via investment in bandwidth and peering relationships and they eliminate a HUGE % of costs from options a and b.


The CDN's use FUD to sell their service. So if you can't buy an ISP the next best option is to set one up. This is why I say it is a smart move given I reckon this is about more than hanging onto customers. They recognise Satellite is at the sunset/cash cow stage and they want to pivot into online. It's a smart move, assuming they can execute well and do not get cold feet. The upsell is that if they do this well, then they become the local CDN for other content aggregators/resellers.

Also - another point which I have been reading about is "content creation". Again, from experience, this is also *really really* expensive and IMO won't be considered a core activity for Sky (beyond Sport). Even if they did it, it would be chump change (and likely a loss maker) compared to offering Broadband and setting up a CDN.

All really good points, especially on reducing costs, thanks for sharing your thinking.

Balance
19-08-2020, 06:40 PM
Someone's put a rather large parcel of shares (appox 7m) up for sale this afternoon on the asx @ 0.185c aud

11862

Looks suspiciously like someone knows something?

Overnight book build for 20% at 20c? 😜

Stock888
19-08-2020, 06:46 PM
I hold SKT.

I love all the ideas about IFT/Vodafone might buy over SKT. :)

What about the idea of 2 Degrees might buy over SKT? This a free market & Comcom might see it a fairer deal to have 2 Degrees takeover SKT to create equal telco market shares between Vodafone & Spark in NZ. :)

Balance
19-08-2020, 06:51 PM
I hold SKT.

I love all the ideas about IFT/Vodafone might buy over SKT. :)

What about the idea of 2 Degrees might buy over SKT? This a free market & Comcom might see it a fairer deal to have 2 Degrees takeover SKT to create equal telco market shares between Vodafone & Spark in NZ. :)

Distinct possibility!

moimoi
19-08-2020, 06:53 PM
Pushed out the AGM as far as they can i see...

Wouldn't want those pesky Sharetrader punters asking pertinent questions would we...

A year in, how is that US$40M purchase of RugbyPass going.!?

tqtq
19-08-2020, 07:20 PM
Looks suspiciously like someone knows something?

Overnight book build for 20% at 20c? 

Just a bit above CR Terp

Ogg
19-08-2020, 07:55 PM
Looks suspiciously like someone knows something?

Overnight book build for 20% at 20c? 

mmm, AUD 18.5c is NZD 20c equivalent. But more likely just quote stuffing by bots.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 08:34 PM
mmm, AUD 18.5c is NZD 20c equivalent. But more likely just quote stuffing by bots.

It doesn't look like the usual volume for quote stuffing by bots on the skt asx listing to me. But I could be wrong. It's A$1m+ broken up into a few transactions. I hope it doesn't stick.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 08:41 PM
mmm, AUD 18.5c is NZD 20c equivalent. But more likely just quote stuffing by bots.

What are the usual volumes on the different quote levels on the NZX Ogg? I'm interested to see but I don't have a trading account in NZ. Any chance you could share a screenshot? Thanks.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 08:50 PM
What are the usual volumes on the different quote levels on the NZX Ogg? I'm interested to see but I don't have a trading account in NZ. Any chance you could share a screenshot? Thanks.

Current depth:

https://i.imgur.com/UCls9RM.jpg

History of trades:

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/

Ogg
19-08-2020, 08:52 PM
Distinct possibility!

Thought this was a possibility, until I found out how broke the parent company was. Maybe they can get an interest free USA loan.

tqtq
19-08-2020, 08:55 PM
Current depth:

https://i.imgur.com/UCls9RM.jpg

History of trades:

https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/

Awesome, thanks. The volumes are a bit higher than that of SKT's ASX listing.

Ogg
19-08-2020, 09:13 PM
Awesome, thanks. The volumes are a bit higher than that of SKT's ASX listing.

Skoy? Naevah heard of it mate. Ya mean fawxtel

tqtq
19-08-2020, 09:38 PM
Skoy? Naevah heard of it mate. Ya mean fawxtel

We got a rock: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qTwAoFR4DuM

Ogg
20-08-2020, 09:40 AM
1m buy at 13.7 on the NZX now. Likely the same clowns who are selling at 18.5 on the ASX.

Ogg
20-08-2020, 10:19 AM
Infratil annual meeting today.

Can someone ask what the hell are they gonna do with all their money when interest rates go negative next year?

Ogg
20-08-2020, 10:28 AM
OMG another 1m at 13.8... UBS pump and dump for sure.

blackcap
20-08-2020, 10:30 AM
Infratil annual meeting today.

Can someone ask what the hell are they gonna do with all their money when interest rates go negative next year?

I am attending the meeting today. I may ask the question for a laugh.!

Akane
20-08-2020, 11:13 AM
1.2mil shares @ 13.7 bid, and
1.1mil shares @ 13.8

Hang tight guys, the rocket is about to be launched, bring a jacket, it's gonna be cold at the moon! :D :D :D

Balance
20-08-2020, 11:30 AM
1.2mil shares @ 13.7 bid, and
1.1mil shares @ 13.8

Hang tight guys, the rocket is about to be launched, bring a jacket, it's gonna be cold at the moon! :D :D :D

Get the feeling everyone is gun shy & wary of the pump & dump brigade?

I am in for more! Bugger it. 🤪

Ogg
20-08-2020, 11:32 AM
Hang tight guys, the rocket is about to be launched, bring a jacket, it's gonna be cold at the moon! :D :D :D

When the stock finally goes up after so long...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MCRQuqLl48

tqtq
20-08-2020, 12:11 PM
1m buy at 13.7 on the NZX now. Likely the same clowns who are selling at 18.5 on the ASX.

The orders are gone. I think you were right about quote stuffing. https://ibb.co/bbgZfw7

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 12:21 PM
Christ it is 'booming' today.

For every 0.1c the price increases I 'make' $1600. So I am $4800 richer than I was last night!

Better let the missus know she can upsize our maccas combos tonight eh! AHHH HUHUHUHUHUHU!

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:29 PM
The orders are gone. I think you were right about quote stuffing. https://ibb.co/bbgZfw7

Nah, it was a Sharesies' user unfamiliar with the sell buttons.

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:33 PM
Christ it is 'booming' today.

The NZX needs to do a share price enquiry. This is unusual share activity - going up.

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 12:39 PM
Have you convinced Blackcap to ask Marko at the AGM today when he plans to launch his Sky takeover, Ogg?

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:44 PM
Have you convinced Blackcap to ask Marko at the AGM today when he plans to launch his Sky takeover, Ogg?

No need, I know it's already happening...:cool:

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:46 PM
Who needs a takeover when we're a telecommunication company now, right? :D

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 12:48 PM
Who needs a takeover when we're a telecommunication company now, right? :D

Vodafone was valued at $3.4B when they were purchased by IFT.

Surely we could be worth at least a third of that with our large customer base to advertise to!

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:49 PM
Vodafone was valued at $3.4B !

That's like $4b in today's inflationary dollars.

Ogg
20-08-2020, 12:54 PM
Spark at $9b.

Sky at $250m

Sky investors asking for more market cap.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ex2r86G0sdc

Ogg
20-08-2020, 02:18 PM
Infratil AGM starting soon.

https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/ift20 (https://www.virtualmeeting.co.nz/ift20)

Me right now...

https://i.imgur.com/BMNaI5x.jpg

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 02:42 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12358227

$29.99! That is a tenner cheaper than what Sky usually charges.

This is exactly why we need to become a telco ASAP - so we can offer cheaper bundles and PPV offerings to our broadband customers and still make money.
We all wish they moved sooner/faster after the Vodafone merger was nixed - let's hope we get more insight into what has been happening at the AGM and these guys get cracking.

I am a boxing fan - will watch this fight on Spark Sport for sure.

Quantitative Easing
20-08-2020, 03:23 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12358227

$29.99! That is a tenner cheaper than what Sky usually charges.

This is exactly why we need to become a telco ASAP - so we can offer cheaper bundles and PPV offerings to our broadband customers and still make money.
We all wish they moved sooner/faster after the Vodafone merger was nixed - let's hope we get more insight into what has been happening at the AGM and these guys get cracking.

I am a boxing fan - will watch this fight on Spark Sport for sure.

Oh the irony. Where are the crooks from the commerce commission now?

Ogg
20-08-2020, 03:40 PM
What a boring AGM.

The only thing I took away is that Vodafone is heading in the same direction as Spark.

Then Mista posts that Spark is going into pay per view.

Just lol

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 03:40 PM
I listened to the IFT Q&A...certainly nothing was said that indicated/implied they are sniffing around SKT.

In fact, Marko pointed out that Spark and Vodafone are following broadly similar strategies...except for marginal value add activities like entertainment content and live sport.

It certainly didn't sound like Marko was keen to get into the content business directly (it sounded to me like he is happy to keep the current commercial relationship with Sky for Vodafone TV, but that is as far as it goes).

Ogg
20-08-2020, 03:42 PM
I listened to the IFT Q&A...certainly nothing was said that indicated/implied they are sniffing around IFT.

In fact, Marko pointed out that Spark and Vodafone are following broadly similar strategies...except for marginal value add activities like entertainment content and live sport.

It certainly didn't sound like Marko was keen to get into the content business directly (it sounded to me like he is happy to keep the current commercial relationship with Sky for Vodafone TV, but that is as far as it goes).

Yeah, except for marginal value add activities, until they takeover Sky on the 10th :laugh:

tango
20-08-2020, 03:44 PM
What a boring AGM.

The only thing I took away is that Vodafone is heading in the same direction as Spark.

Then Mista posts that Spark is going into pay per view.

Just lol

I’m enjoying ACC’s statements on the excess IFT fees! High point of the IFT meeting

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 03:47 PM
Yeah, except for marginal value add activities, until they takeover Sky on the 10th :laugh:

Honestly mate, after listening to all these dry balls old white men yibber yabbing in the IFT AGM...there is no way in Hell they are getting into anything exciting like the content wars.

Though your argument for why they might buy Sky given the low market cap, and ability to merge with Vodafone etc etc has merit...

I reckon they may have looked at it briefly and decided that their wholesale arrangement with Sky is sufficient. They get all of the great content Sky can secure without the headache. They may not see the long term value of owning an asset like Sky being significantly more than the current arrangement.

Obviously Sky competing in broadband and mobile is not going to be great for Vodafone (and the rest) - but I don't think the prospect of Sky Broadband is causing Marko to lose any sleep either.

Ogg
20-08-2020, 03:54 PM
Honestly mate, after listening to all these dry balls old white men yibber yabbing in the IFT AGM...there is no way in Hell they are getting into anything exciting like the content wars.

Though your argument for why they might buy Sky given the low market cap, and ability to merge with Vodafone etc etc has merit...

I reckon they may have looked at it briefly and decided that their wholesale arrangement with Sky is sufficient. They get all of the great content Sky can secure without the headache. They may not see the long term value of owning an asset like Sky being significantly more than the current arrangement.

Obviously Sky competing in broadband and mobile is not going to be great for Vodafone (and the rest) - but I don't think the prospect of Sky Broadband is causing Marko to lose any sleep either.

I would agree with all that but...

Why did Vodafone and Sky attempt to merge in 2016!
What stopped them from merging?... Some BS ComCom decision.
What has changed since then! NOTHING.

Ogg
20-08-2020, 04:03 PM
Just face it Mista. Take over is coming. Even Marko said that the capital raise was to "support" their existing businesses.

There's a massive war going on between Vodafone and Spark.

Spark have the cricket and are now going into pay per view.

If Vodafone don't respond they're gonna get left behind.

Not only that, Sky is going into broadband. Just lol.

Takeover is happening. Face reality.

Quantitative Easing
20-08-2020, 04:05 PM
I would agree with all that but...

Why did Vodafone and Sky attempt to merge in 2016!
What stopped them from merging?... Some BS ComCom decision.
What has changed since then! NOTHING.

Everyone go make a complaint about how Spark is behaving...

https://comcom.govt.nz/make-a-complaint/complaint-form

Ogg
20-08-2020, 04:06 PM
Everyone go make a complaint about how Spark is behaving...

https://comcom.govt.nz/make-a-complaint/complaint-form

They know they screwed up on that. They even said so. Sky didn't even appeal the decision. No way they would block a takeover now.

Quantitative Easing
20-08-2020, 04:11 PM
They know they screwed up on that. They even said so. Sky didn't even appeal the decision. No way they would block a takeover now.

Both the commerce commission and spark lack integrity IMO. Now spark will outbid sky till sky looses all the sport right one by one. Sky has no moat and spark has deeper pockets.

mistaTea
20-08-2020, 04:18 PM
I would agree with all that but...

Why did Vodafone and Sky attempt to merge in 2016!
What stopped them from merging?... Some BS ComCom decision.
What has changed since then! NOTHING.

Plan A for both companies was the merger. That failed.

Rather than appeal the decision they decided to do the current commercial relationship - it was the next best thing.

There is a big difference here - last time Vodafone did not have a comprehensive commercial arrangement for sky’s content. Now that they do, going through the whole ‘let’s attempt to merge...again...” may hold much less appeal.

The benefit may not stack up against the costs.

I am not saying that a takeover is not possible - I make no predictions in this space.

But I think it is also a bit ogg (I mean odd) to keep banging on like it is a ‘certainty’ when there is no real evidence to support that claim.

Quantitative Easing
20-08-2020, 04:24 PM
Can we finish above the 30MA today? Can we break the 0.14c resistance? If we can we might go up to 16c till we hit resistance again.

RTM
20-08-2020, 04:36 PM
Just face it Mista. Take over is coming. Even Marko said that the capital raise was to "support" their existing businesses.

There's a massive war going on between Vodafone and Spark.

Spark have the cricket and are now going into pay per view.

If Vodafone don't respond they're gonna get left behind.

Not only that, Sky is going into broadband. Just lol.

Takeover is happening. Face reality.

Infratil announce buy back...there goes a chunk of their cash.
20,000,000 shares
2.77% of their stock
Roughly $100,000,000
3.45mil saved on dividends.
Suppose it makes sense.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358383

Ogg
20-08-2020, 04:43 PM
Infratil announce buy back...there goes a chunk of their cash.
20,000,000 shares
2.77% of their stock
Roughly $100,000,000
3.45mil saved on dividends.
Suppose it makes sense.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/358383

Insurance, when the Sky takeover announcement hits.

"O No, they're buying Sky, I'm gonna sell my IFT now" :rolleyes:

Ogg
20-08-2020, 04:45 PM
Plan A for both companies was the merger. That failed.

Rather than appeal the decision they decided to do the current commercial relationship - it was the next best thing.

There is a big difference here - last time Vodafone did not have a comprehensive commercial arrangement for sky’s content. Now that they do, going through the whole ‘let’s attempt to merge...again...” may hold much less appeal.

The benefit may not stack up against the costs.

I am not saying that a takeover is not possible - I make no predictions in this space.

But I think it is also a bit ogg (I mean odd) to keep banging on like it is a ‘certainty’ when there is no real evidence to support that claim.

Who wants a lame outdated commercial arrangement.

Besides, you always get cuckold, just like when your partner decides to move into your own space and goes into broadband and mobile services.

tqtq
20-08-2020, 07:07 PM
Who needs a takeover when we're a telecommunication company now, right? :D

Amen to that.

tqtq
20-08-2020, 07:09 PM
I listened to the IFT Q&A...certainly nothing was said that indicated/implied they are sniffing around IFT.

In fact, Marko pointed out that Spark and Vodafone are following broadly similar strategies...except for marginal value add activities like entertainment content and live sport.

It certainly didn't sound like Marko was keen to get into the content business directly (it sounded to me like he is happy to keep the current commercial relationship with Sky for Vodafone TV, but that is as far as it goes).

They'll do offers to throw in Disney+, then the next promo will be free HBO. Like you say they're already offering Sky. Sky is standing on their own two feet, at least up until Comcast make a move.

tqtq
20-08-2020, 08:38 PM
https://apple.news/AfqXgj8XMSoejwGE2brlQ4A

An analysts view of Comcast which own cable in the US and Sky Europe. My guess is heÂ’d probably have a similar view of Sky NZ if he weÂ’re to take a look.

Morningstar analyst Michael Hodel offered Comcast praise last week.
This year "is far from a normal year and seasonal swings have likely steadily diminished with the rise of online content options," he wrote in a report.
But "the sequential improvement amid the worst of the pandemic and sports shutdown provides some evidence supporting our view that the industry isnÂ’t headed for a customer death spiral, a key element of our fair-value estimates and moat ratings across much of the media sector, including Â… Comcast."

Price to book (from memory):
Comcast: 2.3
Sky Tv NZ 0.6

*similar but comcast have telco, NBCU and other media businesses so not entirely apples to apples

Ogg
20-08-2020, 08:49 PM
Gotta love these glassdoor reviews. :laugh:

https://www.glassdoor.co.nz/Reviews/Sky-Network-Television-Reviews-E7568.htm

https://www.glassdoor.co.nz/Reviews/Vodafone-Auckland-Reviews-EI_IE5775.0,8_IL.9,17_IM1178_IP2.htm


Sky TV

29 June 2020
Pros
Good place to work. Friendly atmosphere.
Cons
Management to know the vision of the company

10 May 2020
Pros
Fun place to work, good co-workers, dynamic industry
Cons
Getting disrupted and restructuring to cope

29 March 2020
Pros
Great people to work with
Cons
Blind and ignorant leadership lacking in diversity or skill to invoke change

20 February 2020
Pros
Fun industry, good camaraderie, lots of exciting initiatives in play
Cons
Facing significant disruption so under pressure

25 November 2019
Pros
flexible, big company, flexible, flexible, flexible
Cons
too many people work there, hard to push new change.


Vodafone

28 July 2020
Pros
Great employee benefits, diverse workplace
Cons
The company goes through frequent restructures

20 July 2020
Pros
Great colleagues good work life
Cons
Bad job security and layoffs

26 May 2020
Pros
Excellent people culture and working environment
Cons
Frequent restructuring that causes lack in confidence among staff.

11 May 2020
Pros
Awesome place to work at
Cons
Uncertainities in telco sector nowadays

16 April 2020
Pros
great environment, fun place to work at
Cons
management is quite stuck up

30 March 2020
Pros
Great Employee benefits Big office get to meet some great people
Cons
Unrealistic expectations from the management. Company says they are "agile" but only on paper. Very old system and IT. No forward thinking or planning for the future. Lack of strategy

23 March 2020
Pros
Big company, get to meet many people
Cons
management decisions are too poor.

9 March 2020
Pros
Some of the people are passionate. Agile-ish
Cons
Legacy KPIs. Removing bonus since going private

6 February 2020
Pros
People, people, people
Cons
Complexity of the legacy systems

27 January 2020
Pros
Great leadership and people, good culture, agile and fun to work.
Cons
lots of movement in the organisational structure.

10 November 2019
Pros
Great people; generous resources; inclusive.
Cons
Political; Slow; Averse to hearing feedback if negative.

20 October 2019
Pros
Free phone and plan,
Cons
Too busy ticking boxes and moving on to the next big thing without delivering

Working at Vodafone/Sky...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fk2YRpLnmdU

Ogg
20-08-2020, 09:08 PM
The key themes experienced by past employees of both companies:

Layoffs/restructure/change/disruption

Time for these two dinosaurs to mate and make a baby.

Quantitative Easing
20-08-2020, 10:33 PM
Interesting thread on reddit...

https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/id5c3r/do_people_still_subscribe_to_sky_tv/

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 08:17 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12358295

LOL.

Hmmmn, so a linear TV model is not completely outdated then? Netflix should be able to tailor the content to the user based on their viewing history which is different to Sky, but still an interesting development.

Sometimes it is nice to turn the TV on and have a content curator just decide for you :D

Ogg
21-08-2020, 08:38 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12358295

LOL.

Hmmmn, so a linear TV model is not completely outdated then? Netflix should be able to tailor the content to the user based on their viewing history which is different to Sky, but still an interesting development.

Sometimes it is nice to turn the TV on and have a content curator just decide for you :D

There are two other psychological things missing for it to work:

1) Other people have to be watching the same content at the same time.
2) There has to be a genuine feeling of not being in control.

What Nextfix has done is just a shuffle button. Which in itself is just another choice to make as you have to decided weather to turn it on or not. You're in full control.

People are more satisfied when their options are limited or non existent and there's a higher power making choices for them. They're also more satisfied when they see others doing the exact same. It's counter intuitive but true.

The best outcome is having no choice 80% of the time, then giving someone a choice for the remaining 20%.

Getty
21-08-2020, 09:18 AM
The key themes experienced by past employees of both companies:

Layoffs/restructure/change/disruption

Time for these two dinosaurs to mate and make a baby.

How apt!!?
If you sit around watching it for long, you get a SAURUS!!!

Dr JPG

Viagra users need to HARDEN UP!

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 09:21 AM
The best outcome is having no choice 80% of the time, then giving someone a choice for the remaining 20%.

I know an awesome kiwi company that has this very offering!!! :t_up:

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 09:41 AM
I know an awesome kiwi company that has this very offering!!! :t_up:

That is what sky needs to be marketing. We are a KIWI company, not a big bad foreign multinational. People are rallying around local businesses now.

Getty
21-08-2020, 09:42 AM
How apt!!?
If you sit around watching it for long, you get a SAURUS!!!

Dr JPG

Viagra users need to HARDEN UP!

and if you've got a crook back, you get a SPINOsaurus

Akane
21-08-2020, 09:48 AM
I don't understand people's obsession with Netflix, 95% of the shows are B grade low budget shows that's done by small companies. Sifting through the catalog for "good shows" is a huge waste of time. When I grab a bowl of snacks and just want to zone out on a lazy Sunday afternoon, the last thing I want is to spend 30mins going through their vast catalog of trash to find a gem.

"But it has Stranger things!"

I've watched it already dude, how many times can you watch the same show over and over again :/

To call someone who prefers to have content curated for you a "tard, ok boomer" puzzles me. (referring to the reddit link posted earlier)

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 10:02 AM
I don't understand people's obsession with Netflix, 95% of the shows are B grade low budget shows that's done by small companies. Sifting through the catalog for "good shows" is a huge waste of time. When I grab a bowl of snacks and just want to zone out on a lazy Sunday afternoon, the last thing I want is to spend 30mins going through their vast catalog of trash to find a gem.

"But it has Stranger things!"

I've watched it already dude, how many times can you watch the same show over and over again :/

To call someone who prefers to have content curated for you a "tard, ok boomer" puzzles me. (referring to the reddit link posted earlier)

Stranger things
Umbrella academy
The Crown.
That's about it for me.
Neon is way better

RTM
21-08-2020, 10:09 AM
The key themes experienced by past employees of both companies:

Layoffs/restructure/change/disruption

Time for these two dinosaurs to mate and make a baby.

Jeeze Ogg, last thing we need is another dinosaur!

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 10:16 AM
Stranger things
Umbrella academy
The Crown.
That's about it for me.
Neon is way better

I read an article once that described Netflix’s investment approach as the ‘throwing spaghetti at a wall’ approach.

As in, they throw a bowl of spaghetti at a wall, most of it just falls to the ground but there are a few bits that stick (the hit shows).

Reading their financial statements makes for grim reading imo and supports the spaghetti assertion.

Some say that Sky NZ need to get more into the content creation game. I disagree - I think it’s a mugs game - Sky will do just fine so long as they keep their relationships strong with enough premium content providers.

No doubt some of the existing providers will decide to have a crack at OTT - but I don’t see all (or even most) of them doing that.

In little old NZ getting 1 mil subs for any one platform (which is different to ‘eyeballs reached’) is a mammoth task. And most people will not subscribe to more than a couple of platforms so I just don’t think the economics would stack up for most of the current players that provide content to Sky.

Being an aggregator is a strength that Sky has imo - and maintaining the relationships as well as keeping control of costs is going to be key to their ongoing viability more than anything.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:17 AM
Neon and Netlfix are both garbage. I pirate all my stuff.

I have Sky TV. Why? Because I like watching garbage when I get home from work. I like the freedom of mindlessly scrolling through channels. You can't do this with streaming, it sucks, it's too laggy and buggy. I like to flick between the channels and imagine what other people are watching. "O look, Big Brother is on, I wonder who else in NZ is watching this, what a crap show, O Look, what's this random show, [watch for 5mins], just lol [switch again], let me quickly switch to the business channel [watch for 2mins] flick again, who's this interesting person on tv [don't even watch the show just watch the person] flick again etc etc etc ."

I like to absorbed into culture.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 10:22 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12358295

LOL.

Hmmmn, so a linear TV model is not completely outdated then? Netflix should be able to tailor the content to the user based on their viewing history which is different to Sky, but still an interesting development.

Sometimes it is nice to turn the TV on and have a content curator just decide for you :D

Covid's delayed production on a lot of new content. Which is why this new feature exists. Customers are now forced to watch the old stuff. It reminds me of going to the video shop back in the day and having to look through the drama / action / comedy section when I'd seen all of the new releases.

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 10:24 AM
I don't understand people's obsession with Netflix, 95% of the shows are B grade low budget shows that's done by small companies. Sifting through the catalog for "good shows" is a huge waste of time. When I grab a bowl of snacks and just want to zone out on a lazy Sunday afternoon, the last thing I want is to spend 30mins going through their vast catalog of trash to find a gem.

"But it has Stranger things!"

I've watched it already dude, how many times can you watch the same show over and over again :/

To call someone who prefers to have content curated for you a "tard, ok boomer" puzzles me. (referring to the reddit link posted earlier)


Neon and Netlfix are both garbage. I pirate all my stuff.

I have Sky TV. Why? Because I like watching garbage when I get home from work. I like the freedom of mindlessly scrolling through channels. You can't do this with streaming, it sucks, it's too laggy and buggy. I like to flick between the channels and imagine what other people are watching. "O look, Big Brother is on, I wonder who else in NZ is watching this, what a crap show, O Look, what's this random show, [watch for 5mins], just lol [switch again], let me quickly switch to the business channel [watch for 2mins] flick again, who's this interesting person on tv [don't even watch the show just watch the person] flick again etc etc etc ."

I like to absorbed into culture.

Streaming generally works well with nonlaggy and buggy even when I had old vdsl. If your on fibre look at getting a purpose built router. The Internet provider routers don't handle the mbs needed to get good streams. Hence why spark had so many issues with the world Cup

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 10:25 AM
On a different note. Sky's looking good for a another slight gain

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:30 AM
Streaming generally works well with nonlaggy and buggy even when I had old vdsl. If your on fibre look at getting a purpose built router. The Internet provider routers don't handle the mbs needed to get good streams. Hence why spark had so many issues with the world Cup

It doesn't matter what you get. There are bottlenecks everywhere. I know as I've been streaming/pirating sh*t for 20 years. What ever you do something changes and the system goes down again, it's like 'wack a mole'. Satellite is the only pure way to watch.

Like I said before, I have two "media modes". Coming home from work and watching Satellite and the other is streaming/pirating stuff late at night.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 10:39 AM
Are there any Directors who's terms are up for renewal that we should be voting off at the AGM?

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:40 AM
Are there any Directors who's terms are up for renewal that we should be voting off at the AGM?

Handley of course....Takeover is coming anyway.

Balance
21-08-2020, 10:44 AM
Handley of course....Takeover is coming anyway.

Don’t get me started on the useless self-serving snake Handley. He is a bad smell in any organisation he weasels his way into.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 10:47 AM
Handley of course....Takeover is coming anyway.

Sounds good. Is he useless / lazy or has he got some other issues?

RTM
21-08-2020, 10:48 AM
Streaming generally works well with nonlaggy and buggy even when I had old vdsl. If your on fibre look at getting a purpose built router. The Internet provider routers don't handle the mbs needed to get good streams. Hence why spark had so many issues with the world Cup

I’m on VDSL. No fibre out our way. Have the standard Haewae supplied router. Speed is pretty good, not complaining.
But would a better router help my internet speed ? Or is the supplied one just fine ? Apologies...bit off topic.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:48 AM
Don’t get me started on the useless self-serving snake Handley. He is a bad smell in any organisation he weasels his way into.

I relish the challenges of the clash of the internet versus 'cable television' and what the new world is going to look like. I'm motivated by the potential to influence our country's mindset through performance, sport, inspiration and storytelling. That's why I joined this Board - it's been anything but easy...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/derekhandley

tqtq
21-08-2020, 10:48 AM
Don’t get me started on the useless self-serving snake Handley. He is a bad smell in any organisation he weasels his way into.

That's consensus on Handley then.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:50 AM
I’m on VDSL. No fibre out our way. Have the standard Haewae supplied router. Speed is pretty good, not complaining.
But would a better router help my internet speed ? Or is the supplied one just fine ? Apologies...bit off topic.

The routers are filled with Chinese spyware, that's why they're slow...

bull....
21-08-2020, 10:54 AM
The routers are filled with Chinese spyware, that's why they're slow...

mine used to crap out when they were downloading my data

tqtq
21-08-2020, 10:55 AM
I relish the challenges of the clash of the internet versus 'cable television' and what the new world is going to look like. I'm motivated by the potential to influence our country's mindset through performance, sport, inspiration and storytelling. That's why I joined this Board - it's been anything but easy...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/derekhandley

I've just read Handley's linkedin profile and have no idea of what he does (apart from promoting himself) and what tangible skills he brings to the table. I can't believe that Sky are paying him a fee.

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 10:55 AM
I don't understand people's obsession with Netflix, 95% of the shows are B grade low budget shows that's done by small companies. Sifting through the catalog for "good shows" is a huge waste of time. When I grab a bowl of snacks and just want to zone out on a lazy Sunday afternoon, the last thing I want is to spend 30mins going through their vast catalog of trash to find a gem.

"But it has Stranger things!"

I've watched it already dude, how many times can you watch the same show over and over again :/

To call someone who prefers to have content curated for you a "tard, ok boomer" puzzles me. (referring to the reddit link posted earlier)


The routers are filled with Chinese spyware, that's why they're slow...

It can help greatly. Most Internet provider modems only handle 1wifi signal well. There is as one amazing options out there. My fav at the moment is the mesh systems.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:56 AM
I've just read Handley's linkedin profile and have no idea of what he does (apart from promoting himself) and what tangible skills he brings to the table. I can't believe that Sky are paying him a fee.

Brand "Handley". That's what he does.

Getty
21-08-2020, 10:58 AM
Don’t get me started on the useless self-serving snake Handley. He is a bad smell in any organisation he weasels his way into.

No doubt he will be attaching that Balanced comment to his CV.
Has he asked you for a reference yet?

Ogg
21-08-2020, 11:01 AM
Oh no, the stock is going up. Wanted to put down another $100k but waiting for a term deposit to mature next week.

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 11:07 AM
Oh no, the stock is going up. Wanted to put down another $100k but waiting for a term deposit to mature next week.

Just slam the stock next week on sharesies next week. Then you'll get your fill

winner69
21-08-2020, 11:10 AM
I relish the challenges of the clash of the internet versus 'cable television' and what the new world is going to look like. I'm motivated by the potential to influence our country's mindset through performance, sport, inspiration and storytelling. That's why I joined this Board - it's been anything but easy...

https://www.linkedin.com/in/derekhandley

You'd talk like that if you got over $100,000 a year ($117,000 in F19)

Highly respected is Derek

tango
21-08-2020, 11:11 AM
Just slam the stock next week on sharesies next week. Then you'll get your fill

And a lot of abuse and handwringing! The Sharesies crowd take investing VERY personally, Should be fun. Let us know when the show starts. I will bring popcorn

Ogg
21-08-2020, 11:13 AM
Just slam the stock next week on sharesies next week. Then you'll get your fill

There's only a few die hards over there. Stock is very unpopular.

Akane
21-08-2020, 11:13 AM
Well it broke into 14.1c today, mistaTea is another $1600 better off.

Getty
21-08-2020, 11:16 AM
You'd talk like that if you got over $100,000 a year ($117,000 in F19)

Highly respected is Derek

Sounds like the poor bloke is underpaid.
Thats only a quarter of what Matt Hill gets at NTL.
Tiny co by comparison too..

Tony Two Gloves
21-08-2020, 11:18 AM
That's consensus on Handley then.
Agree! Hope they are not paying this clown much as a "Snake" sums him up perfectly

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 11:26 AM
Well it broke into 14.1c today, mistaTea is another $1600 better off.

If finish above 14c today it will be a good sign. Maybe will go up to 16c till we hit resistance again. DYOR.

Akane
21-08-2020, 11:39 AM
If finish above 14c today it will be a good sign. Maybe will go up to 16c till we hit resistance again. DYOR.

I have nothing left in the tank for SKT, for me right now it's pretty much buckle up and enjoy the roller coaster, so I won't need to do anymore research :D

Ogg
21-08-2020, 11:43 AM
Here's the key moment from Infratil AGM yesterday:

See this link: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/uckjzp66

Time stamp @ 50:30

This is a summary:

Q: Is the transformation of Vodafone currently under taking following most NZ telecoms by becoming mainly a low cost carrier vs a value add provider? Is Vodafone being innovative or are they pivoting in the wrong direction?

A: At the core, both Vodafone and Spark are pursuing the same strategy, that is becoming a nationwide provider and servicing all customers both large and small. In terms of value add, such as content media and sport, “I think we are attacking in different directions” and “reasonable people can differ about the merits of that strategy”.

My take on this is that the question was really saying, "Is Vodafone following the path of 2degrees (and being a non innovate low cost provider) or is Vodafone following the path of Spark (and being an innovative value add provider)". Marko doesn't answer the question directly but does say at the "core" Vodafone is following Spark, but in terms of "value add", that they are only "attacking" and that people may have different opinions on the merit of that strategy. It appears that the answer was never really addressed in full, only that Vodafone is following Spark.

Not The Chosen One
21-08-2020, 11:48 AM
New top-box plans for Sky with 1TB hardrive. Sounds good but will people be prepared to fork out $200 to own it?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122513280/sky-tvs-next-settop-box-could-stream-netflix-and-play-sky-movies-in-4k--but-there-may-be-a-199-charge

Ogg
21-08-2020, 12:02 PM
New top-box plans for Sky with 1TB hardrive. Sounds good but will people be prepared to fork out $200 to own it?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122513280/sky-tvs-next-settop-box-could-stream-netflix-and-play-sky-movies-in-4k--but-there-may-be-a-199-charge

Original source is here:

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=106&topicid=273273

Looks like Vodafone TV

Just lol.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 12:04 PM
New top-box plans for Sky with 1TB hardrive. Sounds good but will people be prepared to fork out $200 to own it?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/122513280/sky-tvs-next-settop-box-could-stream-netflix-and-play-sky-movies-in-4k--but-there-may-be-a-199-charge

Sounds like it'd be a useful product for Satellite customers, which they've still got plenty of, but not particularly useful for Neon customers who probably have a smart tv or stream through a computer, who wouldn't pay for it. The flexible pricing options are a good idea.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 12:05 PM
If Vodafone don't make a takeover offer for Sky on the 10th, I'm gonna dump all my stock on the 11th and short IFT on the ASX.

Absolute no brainer that a takeover is coming.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 12:07 PM
Original source is here:

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=106&topicid=273273

Looks like Vodafone TV

Just lol.

It's not a bad looking device, a bit like the others, incl Apple TV. It'd be easy to say yes to if you didn't already have one.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 12:11 PM
So let's get this straight...

Sky is going into broadband, mobile, and moving into android like Vodafone TV.

Infratil and Brookfield just sitting back and letting this all happen.

We reaching Will and Jada Smith cuckold levels here...

tqtq
21-08-2020, 12:14 PM
Here's the key moment from Infratil AGM yesterday:

See this link: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/uckjzp66

Time stamp @ 50:30

This is a summary:

Q: Is the transformation of Vodafone currently under taking following most NZ telecoms by becoming mainly a low cost carrier vs a value add provider? Is Vodafone being innovative or are they pivoting in the wrong direction?

A: At the core, both Vodafone and Spark are pursuing the same strategy, that is becoming a nationwide provider and servicing all customers both large and small. In terms of value add, such as content media and sport, “I think we are attacking in different directions” and “reasonable people can differ about the merits of that strategy”.

My take on this is that the question was really saying, "Is Vodafone following the path of 2degrees (and being a non innovate low cost provider) or is Vodafone following the path of Spark (and being an innovative value add provider)". Marko doesn't answer the question directly but does say at the "core" Vodafone is following Spark, but in terms of "value add", that they are only "attacking" and that people may have different opinions on the merit of that strategy. It appears that the answer was never really addressed in full, only that Vodafone is following Spark.

He also scratched his face after answering that question leading me to believe there may be more that he is yet to reveal.

https://www.inc.com/rhett-power/5-signs-someone-is-lying-to-you.html

tqtq
21-08-2020, 12:46 PM
You'd talk like that if you got over $100,000 a year ($117,000 in F19)

Highly respected is Derek

Hilarious!

Akane
21-08-2020, 01:08 PM
If Vodafone don't make a takeover offer for Sky on the 10th, I'm gonna dump all my stock on the 11th and short IFT on the ASX.

Absolute no brainer that a takeover is coming.

What's that? I should sell all my SKT on the 9th? Aye aye captain!

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:16 PM
Pretty quiet on the ASX today for SKT. No trading so far.

winner69
21-08-2020, 01:22 PM
Pretty quiet on the ASX today. No trading so far.

Pretty quiet on NZX as well

What happens to unloved unwanted pariahs of the market

Ogg
21-08-2020, 01:26 PM
What's that? I should sell all my SKT on the 9th? Aye aye captain!

I'm gonna do a big speech here on the eve of the 9th...

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:42 PM
Pretty quiet on NZX as well

What happens to unloved unwanted pariahs of the market

It's a holding pattern. Guidance didn't spark any new interest. The board really need to reposition SKT narrative into that of a growth stock / disruptor (which it is capable of being) at the AGM. They need to shake the market out of its malaise if they want to move the SP.

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 01:45 PM
It's a holding pattern. Guidance didn't spark any new interest. The board really need to reposition SKT narrative into that of a growth stock / disruptor (which it is capable of being) at the AGM. They need to shake the market out of its malaise if they want to move the SP.

G'day mate. They don't even need to show that. If they can show that earnings can stabilise that will make the share price go up a lot. Company making EBIDTA over 100m valued at 240m is just crazy. People are scared of the tumble earning have taken in the last four years. Current market cap suggest sky wont be here in 5-10 years, management need to prove otherwise.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 01:46 PM
The board really need to reposition SKT narrative into that of a growth stock / disruptor

They've been saying that for years...

The way forward is to join with a larger telecommunication company.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 01:50 PM
G'day mate. They don't even need to show that. If they can show that earnings can stabilise that will make the share price go up a lot. Company making EBIDTA over 100m valued at 240m is just crazy. People are scared of the tumble earning have taken in the last four years. Current market cap suggest sky wont be here in 5-10 years, management need to prove otherwise.

If a takeover doesn't come, the best thing they can do is buy back the stock. They can use the bank facility for working capital.

There's no point in doing dividends or over investing in risky capital projects.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:51 PM
G'day mate. They don't even need to show that. If they can show that earnings can stabilise that will make the share price go up a lot. Company making EBIDTA over 100m valued at 240m is just crazy. People are scared of the tumble earning have taken in the last four years. Current market cap suggest sky wont be here in 5-10 years, management need to prove otherwise.

True. If they could confirm dividends again for FY22 that would help too. My mind boggles at SKT's current market cap but the sentiment for the stock is just not there ATM.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:53 PM
If a takeover doesn't come, the best thing they can do is buy back the stock. They can use the bank facility for working capital.

There's no point in doing dividends or over investing in risky capital projects.

Ha, i just mentioned dividends. Might not be any point but it'd move the SP up. But so would a buyback. Though I think they'd need the capital for their transformation into a telco.

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 01:54 PM
The whole next-gen box thing...

Before they were going to become a telco I didn't see the point given they have the partnership with Vodafone - VTV offers most of what they are saying (apart from 4K Sky content - but that is not a limitation to the latest generation of VTV given they stream NETFLIX in 4K).

Now that they are becoming a telco (at long last!) perhaps there is a place. They could give the $199 box away for 'free' to customers who take a 12 month Broadband plan with a Sky bundle). Customer owns the box, and can be marketed to consume more Sky content over time - be it additional bundles, PPV movies or sport events.

Why continue d1cking around with all these surveys if they are just adopting Vodafone TV because a merger deal is in the works? That makes no sense to me.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:54 PM
They've been saying that for years...

The way forward is to join with a larger telecommunication company.

I wasn't aware of that. I've only been following SKT post covid.

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 01:57 PM
If a takeover doesn't come, the best thing they can do is buy back the stock. They can use the bank facility for working capital.

There's no point in doing dividends or over investing in risky capital projects.

Agreed. Imagine a 50m buyback at the current levels. That would buy back more than 20% of the outstanding shares. Do this for couple of years and the gains would be far better than the dividend payment.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 01:59 PM
The whole next-gen box thing...

Before they were going to become a telco I didn't see the point given they have the partnership with Vodafone - VTV offers most of what they are saying (apart from 4K Sky content - but that is not a limitation to the latest generation of VTV given they stream NETFLIX in 4K).

Now that they are becoming a telco (at long last!) perhaps there is a place. They could give the $199 box away for 'free' to customers who take a 12 month Broadband plan with a Sky bundle). Customer owns the box, and can be marketed to consume more Sky content over time - be it additional bundles, PPV movies or sport events.

Why continue d1cking around with all these surveys if they are just adopting Vodafone TV because a merger deal is in the works? That makes no sense to me.

You've probably just hit on their exact strategy for the next-gen box when they finally launch broadband. Though I think in the interim they'd be charging existing customers, especially those with the older boxes.

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 02:00 PM
Sometimes i wish Martin Stewart was an ex hedge fund manager. He would've done the right things for the share price to go up...rather than naming stadiums and starting sky sport 'next'.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 02:01 PM
Sometimes i wish Martin Stewart was an ex hedge fund manager. He would've done the right things for the share price to go up...rather than naming stadiums and starting sky sport 'next'.

I believe he had CFO experience in Sky UAE

tga_trader
21-08-2020, 02:08 PM
The whole next-gen box thing...

Before they were going to become a telco I didn't see the point given they have the partnership with Vodafone - VTV offers most of what they are saying (apart from 4K Sky content - but that is not a limitation to the latest generation of VTV given they stream NETFLIX in 4K).

Now that they are becoming a telco (at long last!) perhaps there is a place. They could give the $199 box away for 'free' to customers who take a 12 month Broadband plan with a Sky bundle). Customer owns the box, and can be marketed to consume more Sky content over time - be it additional bundles, PPV movies or sport events.

Why continue d1cking around with all these surveys if they are just adopting Vodafone TV because a merger deal is in the works? That makes no sense to me.
Even better if it is a combined Sky Box and wifi modem in one!

winner69
21-08-2020, 02:59 PM
It's a holding pattern. Guidance didn't spark any new interest. The board really need to reposition SKT narrative into that of a growth stock / disruptor (which it is capable of being) at the AGM. They need to shake the market out of its malaise if they want to move the SP.

The downtrend is so entrenched it will really take something miraculous to change the trend ....and there seems little on the horizon

Once a market pariah always a market pariah

Ogg
21-08-2020, 03:04 PM
The downtrend is so entrenched it will really take something miraculous to change the trend ....and there seems little on the horizon

Once a market pariah always a market pariah

Agreed. Things that will change long term trend:


Takeover
Buyback
Dividends

winner69
21-08-2020, 03:07 PM
Agreed. Things that will change long term trend:


Takeover
Buyback
Dividends


Only the takeover is miraculous .....but then we will never see an uptrend

Other two cosmetic and probably only result in a sideways trend.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 03:10 PM
Only the takeover is miraculous .....but then we will never see an uptrend

Other two cosmetic and probably only result in a sideways trend.

6 month bidding war would likely create an uptrend.

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 03:33 PM
I think a stabilisation in normalised FCF would see some pressure upwards. The market has been worried about subscriber losses, content costs and reduced earnings.

Subs have increased a lot (lower margin streaming customers for sure, but still very positive). We will get a flavour of how the cost control is going in the next report.

If they are able to maintain ~50M (3c/share) a year moving forward that can be used for dividends and/or a share buyback it should make the market view the business as more valuable.

Even if the market only valued the business at 10x 'distributed FCF' you would be looking at a MC of ~30c/share. If the market sees the changes in the business (i.e. becoming a telco) as a net positive and expects some growth in 'distributed FCF' over time then the MC could easily hit 40c+.

I am not making any predictions here, DYOR - just pointing out that it is not all doom and gloom for the business and I don't think it would take too much to move the needle.

Though it is also fair to say that the market has been very pessimistic about Sky's future prospects for some time now, so my assumptions may be wrong.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 03:44 PM
Interesting info about Vodafone Australia merging with and TPG

First merger attempt got blocked by regulators but then overturned in Federal Court.

Now trading under ASX ticker TPG as of 30th June 2020.

https://www.itnews.com.au/news/vodafone-and-tpg-15bn-merger-gets-court-approval-reports-537944 (https://www.itnews.com.au/news/vodafone-and-tpg-15bn-merger-gets-court-approval-reports-537944)

Ogg
21-08-2020, 03:45 PM
I think a stabilisation in normalised FCF would see some pressure upwards. The market has been worried about subscriber losses, content costs and reduced earnings.

Subs have increased a lot (lower margin streaming customers for sure, but still very positive). We will get a flavour of how the cost control is going in the next report.

If they are able to maintain ~50M (3c/share) a year moving forward that can be used for dividends and/or a share buyback it should make the market view the business as more valuable.

Even if the market only valued the business at 10x 'distributed FCF' you would be looking at a MC of ~30c/share. If the market sees the changes in the business (i.e. becoming a telco) as a net positive and expects some growth in 'distributed FCF' over time then the MC could easily hit 40c+.

I am not making any predictions here, DYOR - just pointing out that it is not all doom and gloom for the business and I don't think it would take too much to move the needle.

Though it is also fair to say that the market has been very pessimistic about Sky's future prospects for some time now, so my assumptions may be wrong.

I dunno who's spamming the forum more. Me going on about a takeover or you arguing Sky is worth 30c+ :laugh:

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 03:55 PM
Only the takeover is miraculous .....but then we will never see an uptrend

Other two cosmetic and probably only result in a sideways trend.

Buy back till there is only 500 million shares outstanding. Then if Sky is still worth 250 million, the share price would be worth 50c/share. ;) Pretty pathetic how there are trades for 1/10 cent on the NZX now due to the gazillion shares outstanding.

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 04:14 PM
I dunno who's spamming the forum more. Me going on about a takeover or you arguing Sky is worth 30c+ :laugh:

LOL, fair enough mate.

Fortunately I am not desperate for something big (i.e. a takeover) to happen in the short term. So happy to watch how the business developments unfold over time - the good and the bad.

But your increasing desperation...well...I can smell your...STINK...

Me talking to Ogg about my feelings of his short term speculative investing and Mr Market's mood swings...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL9Y24ciNWs

Quantitative Easing
21-08-2020, 04:17 PM
Imagine if cannasouth overtakes SKY TV in market cap. Wild speculation on weed stocks before the referendum might make that happen. Then our friend Mr69 can laugh at us even more.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 04:22 PM
LOL, fair enough mate.

Fortunately I am not desperate for something big (i.e. a takeover) to happen in the short term. So happy to watch how the business developments unfold over time - the good and the bad.

But your increasing desperation...well...I can smell your...STINK...

Me talking to Ogg about my feelings of his short term speculative investing and Mr Market's mood swings...



:lol:


I'm down 5% and raging!

How much you down, almost 60%? And you're not even breaking a sweat?

You're either stone cold or in complete denial. Surely, there's a tiny part of you hoping for that big takeover offer!

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 04:31 PM
:lol:


I'm down 5% and raging!

How much you down, almost 60%? And you're not even breaking a sweat?

You're either stone cold or in complete denial. Surely, there's a tiny part of you hoping for that big takeover offer!

Currently 'down' ~57%. Meaningless to me.

At one point I was down ~90%. Was meaningless to me.

Now that could be due to my very long-term investing horizons causing me to be 'stone cold' - or it could just because I am a complete idiot with too much money and not enough brains.

There will be a number of users on this forum who would gladly endorse the latter :D

No part of me is hoping for a takeover. 100% of me is carrying on as usual and looking forward to the next opportunity for management to tell me how my business is performing, what they have been doing and what they plan to do in the future.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 04:36 PM
Currently 'down' ~57%.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z-m9WgAdflY

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 05:06 PM
Mista tea. Are you saying your down 57% on sky. At what mark do you break even when sky goes up again.

bertagj
21-08-2020, 05:28 PM
No endorsement from me on that latter statement misterTea, you've been a godsend on this thread. Kinda got caught up in the value trap, then had to go in on the CR. Down 50% with b/e at 26c, so yeah gotta way to go. Just biding ones time with a bit of crazy hope and faith (with an eye on the numbers of course) in the next couple of years.

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 05:35 PM
Mista tea. Are you saying your down 57% on sky. At what mark do you break even when sky goes up again.

32.7c per share.

tqtq
21-08-2020, 05:48 PM
32.7c per share.

Hi MrT. Did you participate in the CR or were you a pre-covid buyer?

tqtq
21-08-2020, 05:49 PM
32.7c per share.

Or are you Black Crane Capital?

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 06:01 PM
Whoa so even with the CR you are in this pretty good. Honestly sky is way undervalued. But we will need a few good results to really turn this tide. I like the sound of sky's new set top box and the value they could get from broadband not as a huge earner but the add on that the could involve. I see them offering the sky box free with a 12 month broadband contract then you also get the sky subscription as the money maker.

dompf
21-08-2020, 06:14 PM
Whoa so even with the CR you are in this pretty good. Honestly sky is way undervalued. But we will need a few good results to really turn this tide. I like the sound of sky's new set top box and the value they could get from broadband not as a huge earner but the add on that the could involve. I see them offering the sky box free with a 12 month broadband contract then you also get the sky subscription as the money maker.

I personally have 7 figures in Sky, if they have nothing decent to say at their EOY meeting i'm out; more opportunities else where. I'll lose a lil bit as im @14.9 on 1.2m shares but i'll chalk this up as a learning, there is a hell of lot going for this company & could be fantastic its undervalued IMO; but everything seems against them including market sentiment. So we shall see bring on Sept 10th.

mistaTea
21-08-2020, 06:30 PM
Hi MrT. Did you participate in the CR or were you a pre-covid buyer?

Yes I took my max entitlement + 20%

tqtq
21-08-2020, 06:57 PM
Yes I took my max entitlement + 20%

Good work, so did I. I like your longer term view on this stock. Patience is the key here I think to getting a good return. To me Sky is less risky than Tesla.

Dlownz
21-08-2020, 07:04 PM
The P.E ratios of u.s company's is crazy

tqtq
21-08-2020, 07:12 PM
The P.E ratios of u.s company's is crazy

Yep. And the opposite could be said of most companies in this region, particularly sky, with the exception of Xero, Afterpay, Kogan and a handful of others.

Ogg
21-08-2020, 07:59 PM
im @14.9 on 1.2m shares

The three of us combined; me, you, and Mista own 0.25% of the company.

A stake worth $5m just a few years ago :scared:

jimdog31
21-08-2020, 08:09 PM
The three of us combined; me, you, and Mista own 0.25% of the company.

A stake worth $5m just a few years ago :scared:

Can i be d'Artagnan and join the musketeers? Im sitting on 1,000,000 , but a relative newbie 😂

Ogg
21-08-2020, 08:12 PM
Can i be d'Artagnan and join the musketeers? Im sitting on 1,000,000 , but a relative newbie 

lol sure, welcome to the millionaires club.

OMC Baby!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2cMG33mWVY

Greekwatchdog
21-08-2020, 08:17 PM
Every time I look around its in my face...

jimdog31
21-08-2020, 10:03 PM
lol sure, welcome to the millionaires club.

OMC Baby!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C2cMG33mWVY

when the takeover comes in at a $1.00 ill be shouting you and the other millionaire musketeers a brew....

dompf
21-08-2020, 10:35 PM
The three of us combined; me, you, and Mista own 0.25% of the company.

A stake worth $5m just a few years ago :scared:

Well I agree with yourself Ogg and MistaTea,

If we need a few extra to get a board seat I could pick up another mil or 2 if that would give us the ability get a seat on the board as both your arguments are good.

I don’t need the money out from the stock I’m just frustrated watching the sentiment and I’m happy to do stuff but it has to be for the right reasons.

I don’t know how it works with board seats and shareholding. But if there’s a way to do it you have my support.

D

Ogg
21-08-2020, 10:56 PM
Well I agree with yourself Ogg and MistaTea,

If we need a few extra to get a board seat I could pick up another mil or 2 if that would give us the ability get a seat on the board as both your arguments are good.

I don’t need the money out from the stock I’m just frustrated watching the sentiment and I’m happy to do stuff but it has to be for the right reasons.

I don’t know how it works with board seats and shareholding. But if there’s a way to do it you have my support.

D

Nominate Mista. He knows the company better than anyone and is in it for the long term.

Far more qualified than Handley :laugh:

dompf
21-08-2020, 11:00 PM
I think a pug is more qualified than Handley.

dompf
21-08-2020, 11:01 PM
I think a pug is more qualified than Handley.

I take that back pugs have value.

Entrep
21-08-2020, 11:26 PM
I personally have 7 figures in Sky, if they have nothing decent to say at their EOY meeting i'm out; more opportunities else where. I'll lose a lil bit as im @14.9 on 1.2m shares but i'll chalk this up as a learning, there is a hell of lot going for this company & could be fantastic its undervalued IMO; but everything seems against them including market sentiment. So we shall see bring on Sept 10th.
When using the phrase “seven figures” most people are referring to money, not numbers of shares. Seven figures in Tesla, for exampe, is quite different to seven figures in Sky otherwise.

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 07:41 AM
Nominate Mista. He knows the company better than anyone and is in it for the long term.

Far more qualified than Handley :laugh:

LOL.

I remember meeting Blair Woodbury in his office. I ended up drawing a diagram on his whiteboard to explain a concept around value creation/perception and why Sky finds itself in the situation it does today (a Kiwi brand disliked by many Kiwis).

He may have just wanted to get rid of me by that point and humoured me with the old “I’ve just learnt something new today” - but it did actually seem to grab his attention.

So if I get on the Board the first thing I am doing is drawing that stuffing diagram for them!!!

Getty
22-08-2020, 09:10 AM
Stop SKYting,
You may finish up drawing the short straw...

tqtq
22-08-2020, 09:21 AM
The downtrend is so entrenched it will really take something miraculous to change the trend ....and there seems little on the horizon

Once a market pariah always a market pariah

Apple was unloved for a long time. Look at it now. There are so many other examples of companies / stocks that have turned around. So not sure your thesis is correct.

winner69
22-08-2020, 09:35 AM
LOL.

I remember meeting Blair Woodbury in his office. I ended up drawing a diagram on his whiteboard to explain a concept around value creation/perception and why Sky finds itself in the situation it does today (a Kiwi brand disliked by many Kiwis).

He may have just wanted to get rid of me by that point and humoured me with the old “I’ve just learnt something new today” - but it did actually seem to grab his attention.

So if I get on the Board the first thing I am doing is drawing that stuffing diagram for them!!!

Last time I had a beer with Blair he said a dude had tried to explain something on his whiteboard -- saved it he did -- showed me this and asked if I understood it

Ogg
22-08-2020, 10:01 AM
Last time I had a beer with Blair he said a dude had tried to explain something on his whiteboard -- saved it he did -- showed me this and asked if I understood it

https://i.imgur.com/LwZEOlU.gif

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 10:24 AM
Last time I had a beer with Blair he said a dude had tried to explain something on his whiteboard -- saved it he did -- showed me this and asked if I understood it

:t_up:

He told me that my diagram changed his life...he would never look at business in the same light...and that he wished he saved his money on all that expensive tertiary education when he could have just come to me...

Balance
22-08-2020, 10:35 AM
Apple was unloved for a long time. Look at it now. There are so many other examples of companies / stocks that have turned around. So not sure your thesis is correct.

W69 is just testing your resolve and view.

As he often does and it's appreciated, but maybe rather un-nerving for some posters! :eek2:

tqtq
22-08-2020, 11:18 AM
W69 is just testing your resolve and view.

As he often does and it's appreciated, but maybe rather un-nerving for some posters! :eek2:

Thanks, all good. It's great to hear from people that take the opposing view.

I just thought of another turnaround example in the NZ market, which is Chorus. I

think, and I don't know Chorus' history in detail, but I'm pretty sure they were unloved for a few years.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 11:40 AM
Thanks, all good. It's great to hear from people that take the opposing view.

I just thought of another turnaround example in the NZ market, which is Chorus. I

think, and I don't know Chorus' history in detail, but I'm pretty sure they were unloved for a few years.

Chorus was once unloved, until Black-Crane came along...

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/161916/Black-Crane-Capital-Fibre-emerging-views-submission-16-July-2019.pdf

"We are long term Chorus investors, having initially invested in 2014." (pg 2)

Black-Crane recently invested 5% of Sky at 18c average.

Proven track record of picking successful turnarounds in the telecommunication sector.

Can they repeat? Or will they be happy to sell into a takeover?

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 11:41 AM
:t_up:

He told me that my diagram changed his life...he would never look at business in the same light...and that he wished he saved his money on all that expensive tertiary education when he could have just come to me...

What exactly did you say cuz?

winner69
22-08-2020, 11:47 AM
Thanks, all good. It's great to hear from people that take the opposing view.

I just thought of another turnaround example in the NZ market, which is Chorus. I

think, and I don't know Chorus' history in detail, but I'm pretty sure they were unloved for a few years.

CNU has been in an uptrend for as long as SKT has been in a downtrend.

CNU been pretty good lately


I think MrT's mate worked on Chorus when he was with Telecom ...

Ogg
22-08-2020, 11:52 AM
CNU has been in an uptrend for as long as SKT has been in a downtrend.

CNU been pretty good lately


I think MrT's mate worked on Chorus when he was with Telecom ...

I remember reading this article back in 2013.

Chorus at "the maximum point of uncertainty"

https://www.interest.co.nz/business/67799/chorus-maximum-point-uncertainty-says-milford-asset-managements-mark-warminger-who

O, how the times have changed.

Sky's maximum point of uncertainty was 21st May 2020.

Getty
22-08-2020, 11:54 AM
:t_up:

He told me that my diagram changed his life...he would never look at business in the same light...and that he wished he saved his money on all that expensive tertiary education when he could have just come to me...

So there is truth in the saying;

'A picture is worth a 1000 words"

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 12:04 PM
What exactly did you say cuz?

Just a discussion on viewing the value of a business by the three main levers a CEO can control - cost, price and value.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:14 PM
Just a discussion on viewing the value of a business by the three main levers a CEO can control - cost, price and value.

Exactly why a merger is inevitable:

Cost - Save on capital and business administration expenses by combining entities into one.
Price - Offer discounted bundles and reward loyal customers thus reducing churn.
Value - Leverage scale and the increased buying power of the business to offer more content and services to customers.

Sky can't achieve these goals as a stand only business.

Sky needs to choose a husband. Who does Sky want to partner up with, Vodafone, Discovery, or Comcast?

Great movie this, watched it the other night...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1dYv5u6v55Y

Getty
22-08-2020, 12:23 PM
Last time I had a beer with Blair he said a dude had tried to explain something on his whiteboard -- saved it he did -- showed me this and asked if I understood it

That printout is so apt.
The figurine on its side on the left, appropriately in Red, showed the future of the balance sheet.
The corporate structure is clearly shown on the right.
Austerity will be the normalisation, is the co statement of intent.
Entity of Phone called, clearly shows the future direction of the proposed co merger,

Eat ya heart out Picasso.

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 12:28 PM
Exactly why a merger is inevitable:

Cost - Save on capital and business administration expenses by combining entities into one.
Price - Offer discounted bundles and reward loyal customers thus reducing churn.
Value - Leverage scale and the increased buying power of the business to offer more content and services to customers.



I don't agree with your inevitability claim - but I do agree with you that, if an appropriate merger were to happen, a number of the challenges around cost, price and value would disappear. This is why John Fellet wanted to do Plan A (merge with Vodafone) in 2016 rather than Plan B (become a telco in their own right). Either way, Sky needed to become a telco...it's just that the Vodafone merger seemed like the smartest way to achieve it.



Sky can't achieve these goals as a stand only business.

Sky needs to choose a husband. Who does Sky want to partner up with, Vodafone, Discovery, or Comcast?


This is where I have a different view. I think that Sky can absolutely achieve these goals by becoming a telco in their own right. It isn't as fast as merging with the likes of Vodafone, but in the end I think Sky will be a competitive telco.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:29 PM
That printout is so apt.
The figurine on its side on the left, appropriately in Red, showed the future of the balance sheet.
The corporate structure is clearly shown on the right.
Austerity will be the normalisation, is the co statement of intent.
Entity of Phone called, clearly shows the future direction of the proposed co merger,

Eat ya heart out Picasso.

The picture of the whiteboard is from Wynyard Group.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91177184/overseas-investor-says-wynyards-failure-largely-down-to-financial-crisis-in-nz

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:32 PM
This is where I have a different view. I think that Sky can absolutely achieve these goals by becoming a telco in their own right. It isn't as fast as merging with the likes of Vodafone, but in the end I think Sky will be a competitive telco.

It can achieve it with another capital raise.

The last placement was absolutely hellish. I don't have half a million in spare cash to do it again. :blink:

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 12:34 PM
Sky needs to choose a husband. Who does Sky want to partner up with, Vodafone, Discovery, or Comcast?


Well the husband(s) need to choose Sky as the partner. Most suitors are scared of daddy comcom saying no. Sky can only flaunt herself so much. She is a damsel in distress. Sky has a lot to offer but might be a bit high maintenance. Sky had a fling with Vodafone while ago but it didn't quite work out. Daddy comcom forbade them from marriage. Has Vodafone gotten over that break up yet? The steamy nights they spent together are still fresh in the mind of Vodafone. Will Vodafane let Comcast go in there and take his ex from him? This is 2020, please daddy comcom let Sky get married.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:36 PM
Well the husband(s) need to choose Sky as the partner. Most suitors are scared of daddy comcom saying no. Sky can only flaunt herself so much. She is a damsel in distress. Sky has a lot to offer but might be a bit high maintenance. Sky had a fling with Vodafone while ago but it didn't quite work out. Daddy comcom forbade them from marriage. Has Vodafone gotten over that break up yet? The steamy nights they spent together are still fresh in the mind of Vodafone. Will Vodafane let Comcast go in there and take his ex from him? This is 2020, please daddy comcom let Sky get married.

:lol:

In Pride and Prejudice, Elizabeth eventfully ends up with Mr Darcy.

The love story between Vodafone and Sky is still playing out.

I believe the marriage will happen this year.

Getty
22-08-2020, 12:37 PM
The picture of the whiteboard is from Wynyard Group.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/91177184/overseas-investor-says-wynyards-failure-largely-down-to-financial-crisis-in-nz

Hell, I hope Sky doesn't fall into the same hole as Lose Yard

Balance
22-08-2020, 12:37 PM
Well the husband(s) need to choose Sky as the partner. Most suitors are scared of daddy comcom saying no. Sky can only flaunt herself so much. She is a damsel in distress. Sky has a lot to offer but might be a bit high maintenance. Sky had a fling with Vodafone while ago but it didn't quite work out. Daddy comcom forbade them from marriage. Has Vodafone gotten over that break up yet? The steamy nights they spent together are still fresh in the mind of Vodafone. Will Vodafane let Comcast go in there and take his ex from him? This is 2020, please daddy comcom let Sky get married.

Love the analogy! 😁!

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 12:38 PM
Vodafone right now thinking about Sky...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iPFEVIF5UoE

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:45 PM
Remember, Mr Darcy is very rich, £5000 per year I'm told. He'll make a great husband. Elizabeth is a lively character. These two are made for each other. Lady Catherine (ComCom) does not approve. Will there be a happy ending?

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 12:56 PM
Remember, Mr Darcy is very rich, £5000 per year I'm told. He'll make a great husband. Elizabeth is a lively character. These two are made for each other. Lady Catherine (ComCom) does not approve. Will there be a happy ending?

Not sure mate. Maybe Sky might have to settle with a Thai style happy ending.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 12:57 PM
Not sure mate. Maybe Sky might have to settle with a Thai style happy ending.

You mean with Mr Collins...

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 12:58 PM
Maybe Sky will be the ones who buy TV3 - for $1.

We don’t even need to part with any cash - can just pay Mediaworks with shares. 7 of them!

Ogg
22-08-2020, 01:06 PM
Maybe Sky will be the ones who buy TV3 - for $1.

We don’t even need to part with any cash - can just pay Mediaworks with shares. 7 of them!

Sky has been selling assets recently, not buying them.

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 01:10 PM
Sky has been selling assets recently, not buying them.

Ummmmm.

They purchased rugbypass. They purchased Lightbox.
They sold OSB because it was no longer a competitive advantage.

They are a net asset buyer - and Sky will be taking a serious look at TV3.

It may be that they decide against it, or that someone like Discovery make an offer Mediaworks can’t refuse...but Sky would absolutely be kicking the tyres.

winner69
22-08-2020, 01:13 PM
Has shareprice near the 30MA yet

Told beagle i'd tell him when it did

He's keen as mustard to have a punt on deep value plays .... even though he is a disenfranchised user

Ogg
22-08-2020, 01:24 PM
Ummmmm.

They purchased rugbypass. They purchased Lightbox.
They sold OSB because it was no longer a competitive advantage.

Rugbypass was a while ago. I would have voted against that. It's too much of a global focus which takes away from Sky's NZ strength. Very risky acquisition. Unlikely to make any returns for Sky. It will likely be spun off for a loss very soon. What's it worth now, maybe $5m?

Lightbox was bought for something like $7m if I remember. The acquisition has turned out to be a good one, mainly because they didn't over pay for it and Sky got lucky with Covid being a huge boost. They have also executed the integration well with Neon. It was a nice fit and removed their main competition.

Martin's strategy of going big on streaming has backfired I reckon. It's a capital intense (over the long term), low margin, and risky gamble. The shareprice has dropped significantly because of this strategy. It's a losers game and designed only for the large American conglomerates. The only advantage is that Sky has created a great "platform" for someone else to take over. Sky has laid the ground work and planted the seed. Now it needs watering and looking after. It will likely bloom nice flowers one day for someone.

mistaTea
22-08-2020, 01:29 PM
Rugbypass was a while ago.

LOL - it was August last year. One year is the blink of an eye to me - but perhaps that is a ‘long time’ or ‘a while ago’ in the eyes of speculative investors.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 01:37 PM
LOL - it was August last year. One year is the blink of an eye to me - but perhaps that is a ‘long time’ in the eyes of speculative investors.

It's ancient history bro. So much has happened in the last year:

-Covid
-$159m Placement
-Disney+ Streaming
-Mediaworks TV sale
-Stuff.co.nz sale
-OSB divestment
-Lightbox purchase
-90% drop in share price
-SANZAAR 5 year deal
-Spark Sport starting.
-NEP deal
-10 year OPTUS deal
-worker redundancies

God dam crazy!

Ogg
22-08-2020, 01:39 PM
Forgot to add Sky broadband!

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 01:55 PM
Has shareprice near the 30MA yet

Told beagle i'd tell him when it did

He's keen as mustard to have a punt on deep value plays .... even though he is a disenfranchised user

Yup it's gone above the 30MA...

winner69
22-08-2020, 02:04 PM
Yup it's gone above the 30MA...

I’ll pass that on ...should boost the price next week if he buys up big

Maths a funny thing eh. ....share price goes above the 30MA mainly because the 30MA drifted down so far

But a BULLISH signal ...esp with a few green candles lately

Ogg
22-08-2020, 02:08 PM
I’ll pass that on ...should boost the price next week if he buys up big

Maths a funny thing eh. ....share price goes above the 30MA mainly because the 30MA drifted down so far

But a BULLISH signal ...esp with a few green candles lately

I'm bring up the artillery on the 27th.

Should be a fun week.

Quantitative Easing
22-08-2020, 03:27 PM
I’ll pass that on ...should boost the price next week if he buys up big



Aww...Thanks Mr 69...or should I address you by your first name? I want to be respectful yet friendly :)

Beagle
22-08-2020, 04:12 PM
Has shareprice near the 30MA yet

Told beagle i'd tell him when it did

He's keen as mustard to have a punt on deep value plays .... even though he is a disenfranchised user
I'm quite happy to be honest. Pay them $72 a month and have been for many many years. Get basic + entertainment which includes CNBC (which I still enjoy watching a lot and get a lot of value from :p), movies, high def and the My sky box which is very cool for recording programs and news items and zipping through the adds on the programs I record @ 30x fast forward. I have quite a few series I link for series link. You can definitely put me in the happy camper user category.

As for investing in unproven mutts I am still licking my wounds from my last foray into shabby mutt territory with PEB. See if I can dig myself out of that hole before betting on any more three legged pig dogs.

Ogg
22-08-2020, 05:56 PM
As for investing in unproven mutts

This is a "proven mutt" that some how became a mutt because the stock went down.

Meanwhile, customers like yourself are happy with the service.

The mutts are the previous shareholders who sold it down into oblivion.

RTM
23-08-2020, 07:29 AM
https://nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12358405

Decent article ok SKY’s intrusion into School Sport.

jimdog31
23-08-2020, 07:55 AM
https://nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12358405

Decent article ok SKY’s intrusion into School Sport.

"NEXT WEEK: Part II - How Sky Next widens the gap between rich and poor"

Hopefully next weeks article isn't referring to when investors entered the share price .........

tqtq
23-08-2020, 11:03 AM
This is a "proven mutt" that some how became a mutt because the stock went down.

Meanwhile, customers like yourself are happy with the service.

The mutts are the previous shareholders who sold it down into oblivion.

True. But better those shareholders are gone sooner rather than later.

The CR was good in that respect too. Diluted and forced the hand of the non-believers.

Although I do spare a thought for the people that do believe but didn't have the cash to participate.

Quantitative Easing
23-08-2020, 01:39 PM
https://nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12358405

Decent article ok SKY’s intrusion into School Sport.

Oh whinge whinge whinge moan moan moan...These schools would be crying out for coverage if they didn't get any, now that they gt coverage they come up with some bulll**** excuse of intrusion.

"NEXT WEEK: Part II - How Sky Next widens the gap between rich and poor"

Is this series of articles paid for by Spark? Jeff latch and his henchmen. Spark are probably worse culprits of inequality than Sky.

airedale
23-08-2020, 03:17 PM
Do the schools get paid for allowing Sky coverage?

Ogg
23-08-2020, 03:20 PM
Do the schools get paid for allowing Sky coverage?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61TMtH3Qw4s

Mista, clear your PM's, your inbox is full!

airedale
23-08-2020, 03:56 PM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=61TMtH3Qw4s

Mista, clear your PM's, your inbox is full!
Thanks Ogg, the best part of your reply is that when video clip finished it took me to another clip of Pavarotti. Did you know that your name with one G ....Og...is the Gaelic for young. So Angus Og is young Angus.:) I think that we are both having a quiet winter afternoon.

Quantitative Easing
23-08-2020, 04:27 PM
Nice hit job on Sky and Waddell.

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/the-devlin-radio-show/opinion/martin-devlin-sky-sport-wont-exploit-our-kids-playing-sports-without-a-fight/ (https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/the-devlin-radio-show/opinion/martin-devlin-sky-sport-wont-exploit-our-kids-playing-sports-without-a-fight/)

Dlownz
23-08-2020, 04:41 PM
Yeah pretty **** article. Sky has been broadcasting school rugby for years with no issues. Whys it a issue now.... Yes they are getting into other sports but I think it shows that there hasn't been a issue so what are the people complaining trying to create.

Mr Woods
23-08-2020, 05:07 PM
So Ogg being in the SKT millionaires club, if dividends are reintroduced and are paid at say 2 cents per share, will your gross dividend be $20,000 (i.e. 1,000,000 x 0.02) for which tax is deducted? Or am I missing something?
I'm a newby to investing so wondered how the dividend payment was calculated for shareholders.
Btw thanks for helping keep this thread informative and entertaining!

RTM
23-08-2020, 08:14 PM
Apple/CBS, Verizon/Disney chip away at old TV bundle

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3608009-apple-cbs-verizon-disney-chip-away-old-tv-bundle

Some might be interested in this.

Ogg
23-08-2020, 09:45 PM
I've been doing some more in depth analysis of the Infratil shareholder meeting last Thursday. I've gone over the video/audio multiple times to try and break down exactly what Marko was saying when answering questions about Vodafone.

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/uckjzp66

There are two key moments:

Moment 1: Time stamp @ 50:30 - 52:14

Moment 2: Time stamp @ 54:10 - 55:03

In the first "moment", which I've posted about before, Marko is basically being asked about the direction of Vodafone, in particular their overall core strategy. The question is rather vague but it is essentially asking if Vodafone will become an innovative telecommunications company like Spark, or just be a low cost mobile platform provider.

Marko response to this question is also rather vague. He confirms that Vodafone is following a similar strategy to Spark but that the way in which they achieve this strategy may be different. He uses the keyword "re-platforming" to suggest how Vodafone can achieve this goal and differentiate themselves from Spark. However, the way in which he defines "re-platforming" is vague, as he just uses generic statements like "investing in infrastructure" and "simpler operations". The only information a listener can deduce from this is:

A) Vodafone will be more like Spark
B) Vodafone is "re-platforming" to be more like Spark

The second "moment" is actually more interesting, as the question is more direct and less vague. It simply asks if there will be more job losses at Vodafone.
In answering this question Marko doesn't use the phrase "re platforming" as he did before, but he changes the phrase slightly to "re positioning". I believe there is a difference between these two phrases as the first suggest that it's about physical changes, i.e. things like "infrastructure" and "operations", these also match the things he said in the "first moment". The second phrase suggest it's more about intangible things, like the overall business goals or objectives.

Marko then goes on to say that this "re positioning" will create a "different shape business" and that this may result in job distribution. However, it's important to note that he does say that he knows of no such plans "today" that will result in further job losses.

If you combined the "first moment" and the "second moment" together what you can conclude is that there is significant change happening at Vodafone. The question is, does this change involve Sky in any way. Perhaps there's no direct way to know for sure but what you can ask is, if Vodafone is following Spark, then who is Spark following? And, why do these companies want to change?

I believe that these "strategies" that Spark and Vodafone are following, are simply strategies that other global telecommunications companies have been following. That is that to say that telecommunications companies are becoming more like information technologies companies. This follows on from the key theme of the first moment, which is that Vodafone must be innovative to be successful - it can't simply just be a low cost mobile provider. One way Vodafone can achieve this (i.e. not being just a mobile provider) is to do takeovers or mergers, which is what other global telecommunications companies have been doing recently. This is why I believe that Vodafone's strategy does involve Sky, as it helps them achieve their overall goal of being an innovative data company and following the path of Spark.

allfromacell
23-08-2020, 10:24 PM
In the first "moment", which I've posted about before, Marko is basically being asked about the direction of Vodafone, in particular their overall core strategy. The question is rather vague but it is essentially asking if Vodafone will become an innovative telecommunications company like Spark, or just be a low cost mobile platform provider.

Marko response to this question is also rather vague. He confirms that Vodafone is following a similar strategy to Spark but that the way in which they achieve this strategy may be different. He uses the keyword "re-platforming" to suggest how Vodafone can achieve this goal and differentiate themselves from Spark. However, the way in which he defines "re-platforming" is vague, as he just uses generic statements like "investing in infrastructure" and "simpler operations". The only information a listener can deduce from this is:

A) Vodafone will be more like Spark
B) Vodafone is "re-platforming" to be more like Spark



What about just afterwards when he said "At the margin you've got thing like media, content strategies, sports... I think we are attacking at a different direction to Spark."

I really hope you're right but surely you can see a scenario where Infratil just isn't interested in buying Sky? Just like seemingly everyone else?