SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[LEMON]

I believe it was a sharesies scare out, they didn't want another blackwell or canna so spooked and ran causing it to drop after a few bigger players took profits early

[Hello123]

I believe it was a sharesies scare out, they didn't want another blackwell or canna so spooked and ran causing it to drop after a few bigger players took profits early

I dont think it was Sharsies that caused this today.

[jimdog31]

So according to Mr Market, Sky Network Television is only worth three times as much as NZME.

Riiiiight. Considering Sky still produced a FCF of $82M....that has got to be at least 20 times more than anything NZME could muster.

And did you see the canadian crowd accumulating NZME..... similar will happen here

[LEMON]

I dont think it was Sharsies that caused this today.
I agree it wasn't all sharsies but they would of had some effect on the drop causing more confusion than normal

[jonu]

I agree it wasn't all sharsies but they would of had some effect on the drop causing more confusion than normal

Without doubt. The vwap was 15.76. A lot of the late selling was multiple offers chasing the price down at once. When 10 offers move as 1 chasing the price down the volatility sparks!

[Hello123]

I agree it wasn't all sharsies but they would of had some effect on the drop causing more confusion than normal

Fair call.

very interesting to see what happens next year things could turn around for this share if the right moves are made, Broadband is exciting! heck even i would think about getting Sky if the Multi package was attractive enough not to mention i could see it as a great tool for retention!

Landscape around streaming is such a fast changing sector and there are some BIG players at the moment would not buy in to risky for me hah!

From page 13 2020 annual report - customer quotes
"I also love how we can purchase individual movies to watch as a family cheaper than going to the actual movies! Bonus!”

I was surprised people still used those payper view channels to book movies.

[DDog]

Rentals will be available on Neon as well. Nothing there yet but the feature is there already.

[mistaTea]

Rentals will be available on Neon as well. Nothing there yet but the feature is there already.

You can rent on NEON if you use the website or on the Vodafone TV app.

Anything you rent from there will appear on your smartphone app.

I have an iPhone and an AppleTV 4K. I can’t browse and rent from the apps on those platforms yet - but if I rent the movie from the NEON website I can consume it from either of those apps.

Hopefully the iOS apps are upgraded soon so I can rent from there without having to go to the website.

[Dlownz]

Rentals will be available on Neon as well. Nothing there yet but the feature is there already.

Umm rentals are on neon.

[tqtq]

"Cheap" does not mean less risky. Sky TV is at the pointy end of several megatrends - the very definition of a burning platform.

And is Sky TV even cheap? One reason people are happily paying insane prices for some things is low interest rates. If the buyer can be convinced of large cashflows far into the future, then they can justify almost any price, at least to themselves, in the present environment.

There is a good chance that the "best" days for Sky TV lie in the immediate future, and the further out you go, the more risk and uncertainty there is that they will have a viable business model. Therefore, it is much harder for one to use low interest rates as a mechanism to delude themselves, which is why the market isn't.

To some extent, what you're betting on is that the cashflows from the current business model can be deployed into finding the future. But, even on the most optimistic assumptions, how much cash can this business generate and what kind of future can a NZ content aggregator buy?

You have giant content creators like Disney and HBO seeking to control distribution. You have giant aggregators like Netflix, now creating content, with the megacap tech firms like Amazon, Google and Apple broadly in the same business. All of these have global scale and access to capital that Sky TV can only dream about.

Then at the bottom end, you have piracy. For those that are happy to pirate content, this is truly the best of times. Quality content being created for a sole platform by companies without a short term profit motive, but, once pirated, the content from EVERY platform is easily available at no charge. Great for pirates. Horrible for Sky TV.

I have not ruled out ever buying Sky TV - I actively monitor it as a potential investment, I'm not just in the thread to throw stones. But they are in an extremely tough spot due to the myriad of competitive pressures, and I don't see things getting much easier.

This is not a low risk investment.

Thanks for sharing your view. I don't disagree with a lot of what you say. There are certain headwinds with content creators going OTT. However, my view is that there's still enough content out there to fill the bundles.

These are the plusses IMO: +Rugby rights, +RugbyPass +other sports +Olympics +Covid Vaccine + ~1million existing customers +data + ip advertising +Broadband +Sales Team +Sky as a marketing platform.

Sky's not the company that it was, it's transforming, so I'm happy to wait it out. To me, it's so undervalued & underrated (note: I didn't say cheap). A lot of people have legacy views. Sky is the aggregator for NZ. I don't think that will change.

[ba9]

"Cheap" does not mean less risky. Sky TV is at the pointy end of several megatrends - the very definition of a burning platform.

And is Sky TV even cheap? One reason people are happily paying insane prices for some things is low interest rates. If the buyer can be convinced of large cashflows far into the future, then they can justify almost any price, at least to themselves, in the present environment.

There is a good chance that the "best" days for Sky TV lie in the immediate future, and the further out you go, the more risk and uncertainty there is that they will have a viable business model. Therefore, it is much harder for one to use low interest rates as a mechanism to delude themselves, which is why the market isn't.

To some extent, what you're betting on is that the cashflows from the current business model can be deployed into finding the future. But, even on the most optimistic assumptions, how much cash can this business generate and what kind of future can a NZ content aggregator buy?

You have giant content creators like Disney and HBO seeking to control distribution. You have giant aggregators like Netflix, now creating content, with the megacap tech firms like Amazon, Google and Apple broadly in the same business. All of these have global scale and access to capital that Sky TV can only dream about.

Then at the bottom end, you have piracy. For those that are happy to pirate content, this is truly the best of times. Quality content being created for a sole platform by companies without a short term profit motive, but, once pirated, the content from EVERY platform is easily available at no charge. Great for pirates. Horrible for Sky TV.

I have not ruled out ever buying Sky TV - I actively monitor it as a potential investment, I'm not just in the thread to throw stones. But they are in an extremely tough spot due to the myriad of competitive pressures, and I don't see things getting much easier.

This is not a low risk investment.



I believe you may have miss understood the business model of SKY :)

Netflix, Amazon Prime have been around for a while now. Are they going to replace SKY? Maybe for some. But perhaps not the majority. The proof lies with 900K odd customers subscribing to SKY.

There are number of streaming providers similar to SKY in America and running successfully. Few examples - Sling TV, DIRECTV, FIOS, YoutubeTV & HULU(content). The home market for Netflix and giants.

SKT is not a content creator. I believe they should never get into it. That isn't their business model.


Piracy - For someone that is into piracy, is never going to subscribe to any medium.

Their issue has been reacting very slow to changes around them. They are only starting to fix things now. eg)streaming

Anything they do, they need to act swiftly. Not just talk about things.
- Broadband can be launched a lot sooner. Still vague with no concrete dates.
- New streaming box - Launch date - sometime in future.

I believe these are some of the issues that need fixing. If they are serious about making changes and being a nimble company.

I truly believe, their power lies in the 900k subscriptions they currently hold for now. It's how they harness these, that will make or break SKT :)

[Hello123]

I believe you may have miss understood the business model of SKY :)

Netflix, Amazon Prime have been around for a while now. Are they going to replace SKY? Maybe for some. But perhaps not the majority. The proof lies with 900K odd customers subscribing to SKY.

There are number of streaming providers similar to SKY in America and running successfully. Few examples - Sling TV, DIRECTV, FIOS, YoutubeTV & HULU(content). The home market for Netflix and giants.

SKT is not a content creator. I believe they should never get into it. That isn't their business model.


Piracy - For someone that is into piracy, is never going to subscribe to any medium.

Their issue has been reacting very slow to changes around them. They are only starting to fix things now. eg)streaming

Anything they do, they need to act swiftly. Not just talk about things.
- Broadband can be launched a lot sooner. Still vague with no concrete dates.
- New streaming box - Launch date - sometime in future.

I believe these are some of the issues that need fixing. If they are serious about making changes and being a nimble company.

I truly believe, their power lies in the 900k subscriptions they currently hold for now. It's how they harness these, that will make or break SKT :)


Yes all about execution, i think this coming year for sky will be a defining one.

Exciting to watch and even more exciting if your confident enough to hold shares!

[tqtq]

I believe it was a sharesies scare out, they didn't want another blackwell or canna so spooked and ran causing it to drop after a few bigger players took profits early

The bots are playing their part too in the manufacture of hysteria on this stock. I watched the bots push SKT down through their high frequency selling at the last second of trading on the ASX. They sold 632 shares to push the sp down 0.5 cents to close from 14c to 13.5c. About an $85 order.

The bots are pushing the share price down to flush the sharesies and other holders out who might consider selling forcing them to panic so their clients who have buy orders out can pick up a bargain. (Should be illegal IMO as its pretty close to stock manipulation. They'll cross a certain amount back to themselves in a big order to continue pushing the price down when they're out of ammo / shares.)

Sharesies crowd are predisposed to panic sell if they don't make their 20% per day on their $1,000 worth of shares. And when you multiply that by their enormous numbers its not good when their are more sellers than buyers. That said, it is good when it works the other way. Just look at afterpay or Tesla.

[Stock888]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/425688/sky-posts-loss-after-business-writedown

The focus should be "Adjusting for the write down it made a profit of $41m." :)

[blackcap]

The bots are playing their part too in the manufacture of hysteria on this stock. I watched the bots push SKT down through their high frequency selling at the last second of trading on the ASX. They sold 632 shares to push the sp down 0.5 cents to close from 14c to 13.5c. About an $85 order.

The bots are pushing the share price down to flush the sharesies and other holders out who might consider selling forcing them to panic so their clients who have buy orders out can pick up a bargain. (Should be illegal IMO as its pretty close to stock manipulation. They'll cross a certain amount back to themselves in a big order to continue pushing the price down when they're out of ammo / shares.)

Sharesies crowd are predisposed to panic sell if they don't make their 20% per day on their $1,000 worth of shares. And when you multiply that by their enormous numbers its not good when their are more sellers than buyers. That said, it is good when it works the other way. Just look at afterpay or Tesla.

Looking at the volume yesterday and the way the market played out it was not sharesies selling. It will be interesting to see if sharesies are on the sell side as per your post. Will they be shaken out?

[jonu]

Looking at the volume yesterday and the way the market played out it was not sharesies selling. It will be interesting to see if sharesies are on the sell side as per your post. Will they be shaken out?

A big chunk of the volume yesterday was pre 11am above 15.5, hence the vwap ending up 15.76.

I think the big plunge was followed down by sharesies and the afternoon shakeouts also.

[bull....]

I believe you may have miss understood the business model of SKY :)

Netflix, Amazon Prime have been around for a while now. Are they going to replace SKY? Maybe for some. But perhaps not the majority. The proof lies with 900K odd customers subscribing to SKY.

There are number of streaming providers similar to SKY in America and running successfully. Few examples - Sling TV, DIRECTV, FIOS, YoutubeTV & HULU(content). The home market for Netflix and giants.

SKT is not a content creator. I believe they should never get into it. That isn't their business model.


Piracy - For someone that is into piracy, is never going to subscribe to any medium.

Their issue has been reacting very slow to changes around them. They are only starting to fix things now. eg)streaming

Anything they do, they need to act swiftly. Not just talk about things.
- Broadband can be launched a lot sooner. Still vague with no concrete dates.
- New streaming box - Launch date - sometime in future.

I believe these are some of the issues that need fixing. If they are serious about making changes and being a nimble company.

I truly believe, their power lies in the 900k subscriptions they currently hold for now. It's how they harness these, that will make or break SKT :)

agree its now or never for sky with a covid tailwind behind it

[Paradox]

agree its now or never for sky with a covid tailwind behind it
Volume suggests out of the ordinary for Sharesies orders.

I was wrong yesterday but I will make another prediction that there will be more sell down today (partly Friday blues) and SP going sideways for a long time.

Disc: hold some

[bull....]

Volume suggests out of the ordinary for Sharesies orders.

I was wrong yesterday but I will make another prediction that there will be more sell down today (partly Friday blues) and SP going sideways for a long time.

Disc: hold some

hope your wrong , i brought some late yesterday on the assumption some have said that yesterday was tree shaking and probably profit taking. and taking into account its a spec punt for me based on business

[jonu]

hope your wrong , i brought some late yesterday on the assumption some have said that yesterday was tree shaking and probably profit taking. and taking into account its a spec punt for me based on business

My my bull....

We are on the same page!

[Dlownz]

Rentals will be available on Neon as well. Nothing there yet but the feature is there already.


hope your wrong , i brought some late yesterday on the assumption some have said that yesterday was tree shaking and probably profit taking. and taking into account its a spec punt for me based on business

I'm under the assumption it's bot trading mixed with sharesies. So the bits are creating mini panic. I'm seeing it with a few company's atpu d results time. Ikegps is a prime example. Result came out. I thought it was a great result. Price went down people panicked. Then announment of capital raise price has shot up to almost $1.00.
Head scratching.
Sky result was good. Price goes down. So now I'm thinking two weeks time a climb to 17cents 18 cents.

[Nor]

Haven't followed this until the last few days. Used to be too expensive and then too unpromising. Seems to have looked up but what I can't understand is that the words pump and dump don't seem to have cropped up anywhere in recent postings.

[Balance]

Haven't followed this until the last few days. Used to be too expensive and then too unpromising. Seems to have looked up but what I can't understand is that the words pump and dump don't seem to have cropped up anywhere in recent postings.

Are you suggesting that some posters talking up the stock here have been selling out in the last 3 days?

[bull....]

My my bull....

We are on the same page!

i dont know the reasons why you brought the stock , but in my opinion the business is still terminal unless like a said earlier the covid lifeline the companies got can be used to save it.
as some people have said 1 year sounds reasonable to make the most of the situation to go from terminal to turn around.

[Nor]

Actually I see now entrep at 3:26 yesterday said pnd.
No I have no knowledge of anyone's buying and selling.

[bull....]

some of you might be interested in this

Sky Network Television disappointed some investors, falling 10.8 percent to 14.8 cents—the day’s biggest loss. The company raised its earnings guidance due to a faster return of sports than it envisaged in May, but the share price had been run up more than 20 percent ahead of the result.
“Just dropping back to where they were on Tuesday,” Sullivan said.
There was heavy retail interest in the stock, but an analyst's report from Macquarie on Monday had attracted some institutional buying as well.

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976517473/nz-shares-bounce-with-wall-st.html

[Jay]

Heard Mr Stewart on the radio yesterday saying Broadband is being trialed at present with around 150 staff and I think he said will trial with some customers very soon

[Balance]

Actually I see now entrep at 3:26 yesterday said pnd.
No I have no knowledge of anyone's buying and selling.

You are allowed to post ‘pump & dump’. Not a problem. I suspect the Sharesies brigade had their tail feathers plucked yesterday.

I still have my shares bought at a good level and am happy to hold as imo there will be a corporate deal done - be it takeover or merger. This is where the industry is at. Matter of time.

[winner69]

Heard MS on the radio yesterday saying Broadband is being trialed at present with around 150 staff and I think he said will trial with some customers very soon

Shouldn’t use MS ....better say heard Martin ...more friendly.

[Quantitative Easing]

Morningstar (who i feel are more bullish about sky):

Sports Cost Relief Provides a Temporary Sugar Hit but Transition to New Sky Is Ongoing
Investors should not extrapolate Sky's better-than-expected fiscal 2020 second-half normalised EBITDA of NZD 91 million. Beating management's projected AUD 53 to 73 million range for the June-half was driven by the NZD 19 million saved from coronavirus-induced sports rights and production cost hiatus in the fourth quarter. The overly pessimistic lens through which the guidance was given back in the lockdown days of May 2020 also played a role. Indeed, fiscal 2021 EBITDA guidance of NZD 125 to 140 million (from NZD 193 million in fiscal 2020) shows the higher costs associated with the recently renegotiated sports rights, and the ongoing burden of Sky's transformation journey to become a multiplatform subscription service provider.

To that end, further groundwork has been laid. Culturally, there no longer appears to be any paralysis over cannibalisation impact on the legacy pay TV unit from the streaming growth initiatives. The decision to pivot the current CFO Blair Woodbury's focus to a broader strategic role underscores Sky's effort to bring in fresh, platform-agnostic thinking.

Operationally, management's implied flat cost projection for fiscal 2021 shows progress on the expense front to offset the higher content costs. Financially, the balance sheet has been replenished by the recent NZD 150 million capital raising. There is NZD 111 million cash on hand to repay NZD 100 million (maturing March 2021), and NZD 200 million in undrawn debt facility (maturing July 2023) to execute the transformation program—a war chest we do not expect Sky to dip into in fiscal 2021 given our forecast free cash flow of NZD 50 million.

Investor trepidation about the execution of this transformation task, at a time of fierce competition for home entertainment eyeballs, is palpable. However, shares in no-moat-rated Sky are at a substantial discount to our unchanged NZD 0.30 fair value estimate (AUD 0.28 at the current exchange rate)—enough margin of safety to back the management.

[tqtq]

Morningstar's Brian Han's Analysis of Sky this morning is quite good & fair (and he's usually quite bearish).

Their fair value price is NZ 0.30c

https://premium.morningstar.com.au/investments/ST/XASX/SKT/0P00006Y72/take

You can sign-up for a free 14 days subscription on that link or on their site.

(You beat me to it QE!)

[Balance]

Morningstar has no or little credibility - like Edison.

[Dlownz]

Morningstar has no or little credibility - like Edison.

Yes you are right. But there is quite a few now with that 30ish cent mark.

[dompf]

Will be interesting to see if more upgrades follow in the next week from the big boys in higher forecast earnings.

Wild day yesterday probably wild day today.

GL all

[Ogg]

Updated Forsyth Barr report.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=14926186998448153842

Maintain NEUTRAL rating

Sky TV's (SKT) FY20 provided something for everyone. For the bulls, SKT delivered strong cost control and impressive freecash flow (FCF) in the 2H, further buttressing the recently recapitalised balance sheet. For the bears, there remains littletangible evidence that SKT can meaningfully offset its sharply declining satellite revenue. Questions remain as to what theeconomics of SKT's business model looks like in an increasingly streaming world — we doubt many were answered in today'sresult. Maintain NEUTRAL.

A difficult bridge to a streaming world

SKT's FY20 was largely in line with expectation and company guidance, but reiterated the transformation challenges thecompany faces. Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 has had an impact on advertising (compounding a downward trend) and commercial(hospitality, accommodation) revenue. Of more structural significance, high value satellite subscriber revenue continued to fallsharply, down -8% or -NZ$48m. SKT continues to struggle to find a meaningful offset. Streaming revenue did increase by +34%/NZ$15m, however, the bulk came from the acquisitions of RugbyPass and Lightbox — we estimate organic growth over the year wasonly c.NZ$2–3m. EBITDA (ex. impacts of IFRS 16 accounting changes and one-off costs) declined -NZ$89m or -32%.

Impressive free cash flow

SKT reacted rapidly to the COVID-19 impacts, cutting opex (incl. 18% of labour) and capex, as well as benefitting from reducedprogramming (rights and production) costs due to less live sport. The 2H highlight was the strong FCF (albeit helped significantly byworking capital timing) taking SKT to a NZ$8m net cash position at year end. We expect FCF to remain healthy near-term.FY21 guidance was upgraded from that provided at May's equity raise (now revenue -6–12% to NZ$660–700m, underlying EBITDA-27–35% to $125–140m, underlying NPAT -51–63% to NZ$15–20m). We continue to view SKT's guidance as conservative(understandable given the current uncertain backdrop) and our forecasts sit slightly above the top end of the range.

Uncertainty ahead, with a broad range of potential outcomes

SKT is endeavouring to position itself as NZ’s aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We believe, thatlong-term, SKT is positioned to potentially fill that role, however, the economics remain highly uncertain. Uptake of streaming is notyet close to offsetting the decline in satellite. SKT plans to offer broadband from early CY21, however, competition is intense (>80competitors) and capturing material margin will not be easy. Near-term, SKT's earnings will also be pressured by the lift in SANZAAR/NZ Rugby broadcast rights to c.NZ$110m pa vs. the current c.NZ$60–70m starting in 2021. We recognise there is a wide margin oferror to any valuation assessment of SKT, but at the current share price we (1) believe investors are effectively paying option valuefor SKT's potential to formulate a long-term sustainable business model, and (2) view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.

[tqtq]

Morningstar has no or little credibility - like Edison.

They show their rationale, and they have influence.

[tqtq]

Updated Forsyth Barr report.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=14926186998448153842

NEUTRAL rating

That must have been hard for them.

[RTM]

Updated Forsyth Barr report.

http://s000.tinyupload.com/?file_id=14926186998448153842

Maintain NEUTRAL rating


Sky TV's (SKT) FY20 provided something for everyone. For the bulls, SKT delivered strong cost control and impressive freecash flow (FCF) in the 2H, further buttressing the recently recapitalised balance sheet. For the bears, there remains littletangible evidence that SKT can meaningfully offset its sharply declining satellite revenue. Questions remain as to what theeconomics of SKT's business model looks like in an increasingly streaming world — we doubt many were answered in today'sresult. Maintain NEUTRAL.

A difficult bridge to a streaming world

SKT's FY20 was largely in line with expectation and company guidance, but reiterated the transformation challenges thecompany faces. Unsurprisingly, COVID-19 has had an impact on advertising (compounding a downward trend) and commercial(hospitality, accommodation) revenue. Of more structural significance, high value satellite subscriber revenue continued to fallsharply, down -8% or -NZ$48m. SKT continues to struggle to find a meaningful offset. Streaming revenue did increase by +34%/NZ$15m, however, the bulk came from the acquisitions of RugbyPass and Lightbox — we estimate organic growth over the year wasonly c.NZ$2–3m. EBITDA (ex. impacts of IFRS 16 accounting changes and one-off costs) declined -NZ$89m or -32%.

Impressive free cash flow

SKT reacted rapidly to the COVID-19 impacts, cutting opex (incl. 18% of labour) and capex, as well as benefitting from reducedprogramming (rights and production) costs due to less live sport. The 2H highlight was the strong FCF (albeit helped significantly byworking capital timing) taking SKT to a NZ$8m net cash position at year end. We expect FCF to remain healthy near-term.FY21 guidance was upgraded from that provided at May's equity raise (now revenue -6–12% to NZ$660–700m, underlying EBITDA-27–35% to $125–140m, underlying NPAT -51–63% to NZ$15–20m). We continue to view SKT's guidance as conservative(understandable given the current uncertain backdrop) and our forecasts sit slightly above the top end of the range.

Uncertainty ahead, with a broad range of potential outcomes

SKT is endeavouring to position itself as NZ’s aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We believe, thatlong-term, SKT is positioned to potentially fill that role, however, the economics remain highly uncertain. Uptake of streaming is notyet close to offsetting the decline in satellite. SKT plans to offer broadband from early CY21, however, competition is intense (>80competitors) and capturing material margin will not be easy. Near-term, SKT's earnings will also be pressured by the lift in SANZAAR/NZ Rugby broadcast rights to c.NZ$110m pa vs. the current c.NZ$60–70m starting in 2021. We recognise there is a wide margin oferror to any valuation assessment of SKT, but at the current share price we (1) believe investors are effectively paying option valuefor SKT's potential to formulate a long-term sustainable business model, and (2) view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.

Maybe neutral....but target price 16c.

[tqtq]

Maybe neutral....but target price 16c.

They must be buying Sky

[Ogg]

Maybe neutral....but target price 16c.

They also only have 3 ratings: Outperform, Neutral, and Unperformed.

Summary:

Whilst we expect disruptive pressures on SKT's earnings will not abate any time soon, at the current share price investors are effectively only paying option value for the potential SKT is successful in repositioning itself as NZ's aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.

[nevchev]

They also only have 3 ratings: Outperform, Neutral, and Unperformed.

Summary:

Whilst we expect disruptive pressures on SKT's earnings will not abate any time soon, at the current share price investors are effectively only paying option value for the potential SKT is successful in repositioning itself as NZ's aggregator of sporting and entertainment content in a streaming world. We view the investment risks as balanced; NEUTRAL.

Thats the part i like Ogg.Will be accumulating as we go

[jonu]

They must be buying Sky

Haha....that's what I figured.

[tqtq]

Haha....that's what I figured.

SP should bounce higher today. I'm pretty sure those who have held their nerve will be rewarded.

[Enrix]

large broker

FY20 was a bad year for SKT, with EBITDA down more than 30%. Increased costs, rather than Covid, was a key driver of that, alongside ongoing revenue pressure. FY21 earnings guidance was encouraging on revenue but disappointing on costs. With SKT making the necessary move to a stronger streaming proposition we worry about cannibalisation adding to the nearer-term pressures on revenues. Greater clarity on opex is required, should revenue continue to decline. Uncertainty will remain until SKT stabilise revenue and right-size costs – a challenging transition given competition and SKT’s dual-platforms. Retain Neutral. Target price $0.17 (from $0.16), driven by small upgrade to operating forecasts. Key risks are Covid, competition and execution ability.

[Quantitative Easing]

Would sky be in a position to outbid Spark for Sanzar rights in 2026 given declining revenues? Surely there comes a point where the ROI doesn't add up.

[Jay]

Shouldn’t use MS ....better say heard Martin ...more friendly.
Just for you have altered it :-)

[Heimand]

ASB recommendation update: BUY: 30C valuation

[Quantitative Easing]

Anyone got Fat Prophets recommendation? They seem to be the most bullish.

[Paradox]

Here come the sharesies orders

[clown]

Lots of buyers this morning...



Last
Change
Buy
Sell
Open
High
Low
VWAP
Volume
Turnover



$0.151
https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/Content/Style/Images/arrow-up-green_transparent.png0.3* 2%
$0.151
$0.152
$0.150
$0.151
$0.150
$0.150
1,014,579
$152,289







Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



1
47,590
$0.151


87
613,625
$0.150


10
139,444
$0.149


10
59,561
$0.148


5
83,247
$0.147


7
67,052
$0.146


10
258,068
$0.145


2
700,000
$0.144


4
211,698
$0.143


2
205,256
$0.142


138
2,385,541






Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$0.152
19,693
4


$0.153
301,000
2


$0.154
54,586
3


$0.155
372,562
6


$0.156
134,914
3


$0.157
48,000
1


$0.158
130,864
3


$0.159
334,356
3


$0.160
252,656
12


$0.161
207,219
3



1,855,850
40

[Quantitative Easing]

Here come the sharesies orders

Based on latest sharesies posts i think most of them have abandoned the rocket.

[tqtq]

Anyone got Fat Prophets recommendation? They seem to be the most bullish.

I'm sure they'd be in the $2 range

[winner69]

interesting brokers mention ‘execution risk’ — Suppose we have to have faith in their ability.

[nevchev]

interesting brokers mention ‘execution risk’ — Suppose we have to have faith in their ability.

Their not lacking team experience

[winner69]

ASB recommendation update: BUY: 30C valuation

ASB just use the Morningstar numbers

[tango]

Based on latest sharesies posts i think most of them have abandoned the rocket.

To the moon!
There are a few still keen and keeping the faith. $1.60 in their account and planning to buy another 10 shares

[Ogg]

Would sky be in a position to outbid Spark for Sanzar rights in 2026 given declining revenues? Surely there comes a point where the ROI doesn't add up.

Potentially, but that's a long time away. Sky would generated significant income by then.

Sky is in a better position than Spark as it has the revenue to pay for the content. Spark is effectively buying the content and then doing prepay. It's yet to be seen weather their recent Cricket NZ purchase will pay off. Sport is only one part of Sky' business, the most important part yes, but there is alot more content on there than just rugby. Would be a huge blow if they lost the rugby but there would also be cost savings without it. It would be impossible to know what would happen with the share price.

[winner69]

Wow ...love the response to analyst/brokers

Do they actually mean anything? Or is just that they give some the warm fuzzies .....and comfort.

[Ogg]

interesting brokers mention ‘execution risk’ — Suppose we have to have faith in their ability.

The general consensus is uncertainty vs potential huge upside given the low share price.

Discovery used the same investment criteria when they bought Mediaworks.

[Quantitative Easing]

Potentially, but that's a long time away. Sky would generated significant income by then.

Sky is in a better position than Spark as it has the revenue to pay for the content. Spark is effectively buying the content and then doing prepay. It's yet to be seen weather their recent Cricket NZ purchase will pay off. Sport is only one part of Sky' business, the most important part yes, but there is alot more content on there than just rugby. Would be a huge blow if they lost the rugby but there would also be cost savings without it. It would be impossible to know what would happen with the share price.

That's what we have been saying all along OGG. This damsel needs a rich sugar daddy to survive long term.

[Balance]

Wow ...love the response to analyst/brokers

Do they actually mean anything? Or is just that they give some the warm fuzzies .....and comfort.

You know the old story, W69 - Brokers got to keep on the right side of the corporate (Sky in this case) or else could miss out on the potential M&A fees!

[Balance]

Here come the sharesies orders

Yup - the second wave is sweeping in. Will it lift or sink the SKT boat though?

[tqtq]

You know the old story, W69 - Brokers got to keep on the right side of the corporate (Sky in this case) or else could miss out on the potential M&A fees!

Your comment explains Forsythe Barr's 16c price target too

[nevchev]

It could run back to 16 if not 17 in the short term

[Ogg]

15c looks like a strong base here. Just slightly lower than most broker valuations. Smart money would be accumulating here and waiting for corporate activity over the coming months. Every week Sky generates about $1m. It's like having a savings account.

[Entrep]

It could run back to 16 if not 17 in the short term

Unlikely with so many weak hands (Sharesies) underwater

[Paradox]

Not enough volume to move the SP. ASX open and punters acting on MorningStar report may push it up.

[bull....]

ceo stewart just brought 250000 shares this morning

[Greekwatchdog]

Boss just brought a few.. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/359632 (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359632/330572.pdf)

[jonu]

Martin Stewart buying at 15c

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359632/330573.pdf

[winner69]

ceo stewart just brought 250000 shares this morning

Just doing his job ...somebody has to support the share price

[nevchev]

Nice show of confidence

[Clints]

$37,000 prob not going to break his bank

[Ogg]

Still owns less than me...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-H1T7ny2Uw

[winner69]

Martin buying a non event

Chairman Phil not buying

[nevchev]

Martin buying a non event

Chairman Phil not buying

Yet......plenty of time

[mistaTea]

Martin Stewart buying at 15c

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359632/330573.pdf

So clearly absolutely no takeover discussions happening right now in any way, shape or form.

Ogg? I thought you were gonna tell you mates at IFT to pull their thumb out?

[Ogg]

So clearly absolutely no takeover discussions happening right now in any way, shape or form.

Ogg? I thought you were gonna tell you mates at IFT to pull their thumb out?

Was waiting for this post...

[Getty]

The offer is still on the table I presume, but the new fallback position will be the $8.3B of Bonus Bonds money straight into SKT.

[jonu]

Martin buying a non event

Chairman Phil not buying

Can only be seen as positive with a reasonable amount involved. Certainly not negative winner69! You're sounding a tad cynical.

[dompf]

The F F F FF Faafoi buyout offer is still on the table I presume, but the new fallback position will be the $8.3B of Bonus Bonds money straight into SKT.

I was impressed Skytv didn’t take the Covid Subsidy like so many other large businesses, that cap raised and took as much as they could; looking at their financials they would’ve been eligible. From my point of view not taking advantage of it is pretty admirable.

It would’ve added a chunk to their bottom line.

Good to see Martin putting some of his own money in on market price as well.

GL all, weak hands sold yesterday, company has a long road ahead but looks like they are doing It correctly and heading in the right direction at least until they aren’t as tech moves so quick.

[Ogg]

This looks like a sweat job.

https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50547549

Free Sky and Neon. Work from home. Just take the odd phone call.

I'm gonna apply.

[Ogg]

This one looks even better...

https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50546887 (https://www.seek.co.nz/job/50546887)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TJh5wdvdfVE

[winner69]

I was impressed Skytv didn’t take the Covid Subsidy like so many other large businesses, that cap raised and took as much as they could; looking at their financials they would’ve been eligible. From my point of view not taking advantage of it is pretty admirable.

It would’ve added a chunk to their bottom line.

Good to see Martin putting some of his own money in on market price as well.

GL all, weak hands sold yesterday, company has a long road ahead but looks like they are doing It correctly and heading in the right direction at least until they aren’t as tech moves so quick.

Conjecture?

I find it hard to see they qualified .....and I’m sure they would have if they could have.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Conjecture?

I find it hard to see they qualified .....and I’m sure they would have if they could have.
Agree I doubt there income would have reduced enough to qualify so just making it look pretty - he still has less shares than Ogg!

[Tony Two Gloves]

That's what we have been saying all along OGG. This damsel needs a rich sugar daddy to survive long term.
And like any damsel, easier to find a sugar daddy whilst your still attractive.....

[Tripp]

It's interesting to see a few C level managers buying. There was a big purchase (over 100k) a few months ago @ 12 cents.

[mistaTea]

I wanna see Blair “dem gains” Woodbury buy some more.

[Ogg]

I wanna see Blair “dem gains” Woodbury buy some more.

Blair's new role....


https://www.denofgeek.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/homer_goes_to_college.jpg

[Ogg]

Blair and Handley FY21

https://images-wixmp-ed30a86b8c4ca887773594c2.wixmp.com/f/fdadb397-290a-492d-ad1a-d4fa37ceda8c/dc84g2x-430c8f64-c011-4337-85c3-fb935420f6b6.jpg?token=eyJ0eXAiOiJKV1QiLCJhbGciOiJ IUzI1NiJ9.eyJzdWIiOiJ1cm46YXBwOiIsImlzcyI6InVybjph cHA6Iiwib2JqIjpbW3sicGF0aCI6IlwvZlwvZmRhZGIzOTctMj kwYS00OTJkLWFkMWEtZDRmYTM3Y2VkYThjXC9kYzg0ZzJ4LTQz MGM4ZjY0LWMwMTEtNDMzNy04NWMzLWZiOTM1NDIwZjZiNi5qcG cifV1dLCJhdWQiOlsidXJuOnNlcnZpY2U6ZmlsZS5kb3dubG9h ZCJdfQ.3TJF8IYDoFEYxSXYmxQPCLyyUULDCpRiWd-4SmQInhY

[Tony Two Gloves]

It's interesting to see a few C level managers buying. There was a big purchase (over 100k) a few months ago @ 12 cents.
Don't think it's ever traded at 0.12

[Ogg]

Don't think it's ever traded at 0.12

I think he means in the placement.

[dompf]

Agree I doubt there income would have reduced enough to qualify so just making it look pretty - he still has less shares than Ogg!

Haha; you maybe correct they weren’t eligible and other large corporates are. Winner was probably right if they could they would’ve.

But at the end they didn’t get a bean, so it’s still a good thing.

[mistaTea]

I see Aussie pinched the rugby championship from NZ.

Sucks for NZ, but great for Sky. All those punters who would have gone to the matches will either watch it at home or at the pub (if COVID doesn’t ruin the party).

[flyinglizard]

Second wave to 0.16 soon. Someone is buying. Hope they are long term investors.

[tqtq]

I see Aussie pinched the rugby championship from NZ.

Sucks for NZ, but great for Sky. All those punters who would have gone to the matches will either watch it at home or at the pub (if COVID doesn’t ruin the party).

You could always come over here and watch it live as long as you quarantine for 2 weeks :)

[winner69]

Didn't the rest if the exec team get the email to support the share price (by buying some) and show their confidence

[Ogg]

Second wave to 0.16 soon. Someone is buying. Hope they are long term investors.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32Gvs81E7CE

[tqtq]

Didn't the rest if the exec team get the email to support the share price (by buying some) and show their confidence

Give it a rest; they don't even pay for Sky or Neon it seems according to the recruitment ads.

[mistaTea]

You could always come over here and watch it live as long as you quarantine for 2 weeks :)

I think I’ll have a date with my Sky sport NOW app thanks!

[tqtq]

I think I’ll have a date with my Sky sport NOW app thanks!

Well that's alright then.

I wonder what ever happened to that trans-Tasman bubble idea.

[mistaTea]

Well that's alright then.

I wonder what ever happened to that trans-Tasman bubble idea.

I think the local Bible Thumpers have put the final nail in that coffin mate.

[jonu]

I think the local Bible Thumpers have put the final nail in that coffin mate.

Bigotry is an unappealing trait mistatea. You might like to consider whose management of the border let it in if you are looking for blame.

As for the Aussies pinching the RC after it was already allocated here, it smacks of 2003.

[tqtq]

I think the local Bible Thumpers have put the final nail in that coffin mate.

The kill joys. But your mention of coffins reminds me of a fantastic television ad for pay tv.

The ad opened on someone waking up in a coffin, then panicking, worrying that they've been buried alive.

The camera moves down to the end of the coffin where there's a tv screen plugged into a set top box. I think it was foxtel.

The person then breathes a sigh of relief, picks up the remote, and starts flicking through the channels.

But from memory, the best ads for pay tv, especially out in the community, were for Sky NZ.

I remember reading about them dying the colour of a fountain red for shark week or jaws (one of them).

[mistaTea]

Bigotry is an unappealing trait mistatea. You might like to consider whose management of the border let it in if you are looking for blame.

As for the Aussies pinching the RC after it was already allocated here, it smacks of 2003.

Amen, brother.

[Ogg]

Someone big is definitely accumulating at 15. Doesn't want to pay a penny more though.

[mistaTea]

Someone big is definitely accumulating at 15. Doesn't want to pay a penny more though.

Probably Martin, Philip and Blair...

[Ogg]

Probably Martin, Philip and Blair...

More like...

https://i.imgur.com/2KOHY2k.jpg

[dompf]

More like...

https://i.imgur.com/2KOHY2k.jpg

Herald write up sums up the sentiment a bit.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364258

Apologies it’s premium paywall

It’s Greg Smiths take of Probability of 35c If they do everything right. And that market has overall pessimism for the share

[Quantitative Easing]

What a week it has been. All i can say is Sky share price finished 7% higher than compared to start of the week.

[Quantitative Easing]

Herald write up sums up the sentiment a bit.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364258

Apologies it’s premium paywall
It’s Greg Smiths take of Probability of 35c If they do everything right. And that market has overall pessimism for the share

"The stock is probably for speculative investors only at this stage," he says.

I think that pretty much sums up people like Ogg. ;)

[tqtq]

DJ Bearish Views on Sky TV Still Dominant -- Market Talk
11 Sep 2020 14:05:06


0405 GMT - Bearish views appear to remain in the ascendant for Sky Television despite its upgraded FY 2021 guidance. Forsyth Barr says the New Zealand company is still struggling to realize a "meaningful offset" for declining satellite TV revenue, noting that streaming grew but largely due to acquisitions. An increase in the cost of rugby broadcast rights is also a headwind, it says. Credit Suisse says Sky's new streaming services might cannibalize its legacy business. Uncertainty will remain until investors have increased confidence in Sky's ability to stabilize during a "very challenging transition." Shares are down 60% this year at NZ$0.15 versus S&P Capital IQ's median price target from six analysts of NZ$0.24.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires


September 11, 2020 00:05 ET (04:05 GMT)

[mistaTea]

This is Ogg describing the rest of us on the forum...

https://youtu.be/4suc3j7jSkw

[flyinglizard]

DJ Bearish Views on Sky TV Still Dominant -- Market Talk
11 Sep 2020 14:05:06


0405 GMT - Bearish views appear to remain in the ascendant for Sky Television despite its upgraded FY 2021 guidance. Forsyth Barr says the New Zealand company is still struggling to realize a "meaningful offset" for declining satellite TV revenue, noting that streaming grew but largely due to acquisitions. An increase in the cost of rugby broadcast rights is also a headwind, it says. Credit Suisse says Sky's new streaming services might cannibalize its legacy business. Uncertainty will remain until investors have increased confidence in Sky's ability to stabilize during a "very challenging transition." Shares are down 60% this year at NZ$0.15 versus S&P Capital IQ's median price target from six analysts of NZ$0.24.

(END) Dow Jones Newswires


September 11, 2020 00:05 ET (04:05 GMT)

They dropped the vulation from $0.30-0.34 down to $0.24 within 2 days, faster than the drop of SP.

[tqtq]

They dropped the vulation from $0.30-0.34 down to $0.24 within 2 days, faster than the drop of SP.

Capital IQ's median price target from six analysts of NZ$0.24.



median


[ mee-dee-uhn ]



noun

Arithmetic, Statistics. the middle number in a given sequence of numbers, taken as the average of the two middle numbers when the sequence has an even number of numbers:4 is the median of 1, 3, 4, 8, 9.

[winner69]

Capital IQ's median price target from six analysts of NZ$0.24.



median


[ mee-dee-uhn ]



noun

Arithmetic, Statistics. the middle number in a given sequence of numbers, taken as the average of the two middle numbers when the sequence has an even number of numbers:4 is the median of 1, 3, 4, 8, 9.

so it's all a big guess eh ...could be 14 cents to 40 cents

[tqtq]

so it's all a big guess eh ...could be 14 cents to 40 cents

It's a range from analysts based on different views, from bad to good.

As it's a broad range, they've mentioned the median.

I would have thought this was self explanatory?

[winner69]

It's a range from analysts based on different views, from bad to good.

As it's a broad range, they've mentioned the median.

I would have thought this was self explanatory?

So in time we’ll know who was closest to reality — the bad one or the good one or maybe the median one (assuming an odd number of analysts)

[mistaTea]

I think the negativity around how the average spend per streaming user (ARPSU) being ~$20 is terrible because it is so much lower than satellite ARPU ($82) is unwarranted. It only considers part of the picture anyway.

The ARPSU of $20 only represents a fraction of Sky's available content.

Once Sky begins selling more of their content via Sky GO (as a standalone product) or add-ons/upgrades to NEON you will see the ARPSU increase.

If all of the current satellite customers converted to a SkyGO standalone product their ARPU would like be around $60.

Given the number of those customers this would significantly lift the ARPSU.

[dompf]

So in time we’ll know who was closest to reality — the bad one or the good one or maybe the median one (assuming an odd number of analysts)

No one has put the stock price below where it is today. Median or high or low. The lowest I’ve seen is 16-17c so far at least.

[Quantitative Easing]

I think the negativity around how the average spend per streaming user (ARPSU) being ~$20 is terrible because it is so much lower than satellite ARPU ($82) is unwarranted. It only considers part of the picture anyway.

The ARPSU of $20 only represents a fraction of Sky's available content.

Once Sky begins selling more of their content via Sky GO (as a standalone product) or add-ons/upgrades to NEON you will see the ARPSU increase.

If all of the current satellite customers converted to a SkyGO standalone product their ARPU would like be around $60.

Given the number of those customers this would significantly lift the ARPSU.

ARPU will increase with more sports being on Air and Sky Sports Now. I reckon they can afford to increase price of Sky Sport Now a little bit when sport is actually on. Spark is charging $25 for Fcuk all. Crony basterds.

[LEMON]

If all goes well, no takeover and Sky begins to move forward as a company and progress, overcoming the challenges in front. Where would we like see sky sitting in 5 years time? Just for fun and future prospects, don't take the question to serious but with all the information and greatminds on this thread, $1? maybe more or less?

[mistaTea]

ARPU will increase with more sports being on Air and Sky Sports Now. I reckon they can afford to increase price of Sky Sport Now a little bit when sport is actually on. Spark is charging $25 for Fcuk all. Crony basterds.

The bigger increase in terms of ARPSU will come when customers have a streaming platform where they have options to subscribe to entertainment bundles that are more comprehensive than NEON as well as Sky Sport.

Sky GO offers this - and I think the revamped platform will be very good if they get the On Demand be Linear mix/balance right.

No doubt the current $299.99 per year price for Sky Sport NOW won’t last - but even if the 12 month pass goes back to $39.99 per month it will have a more modest impact on lifting ARPSU than Sky Go.

[Dlownz]

The bigger increase in terms of ARPSU will come when customers have a streaming platform where they have options to subscribe to entertainment bundles that are more comprehensive than NEON as well as Sky Sport.

Sky GO offers this - and I think the revamped platform will be very good if they get the On Demand be Linear mix/balance right.

No doubt the current $299.99 per year price for Sky Sport NOW won’t last - but even if the 12 month pass goes back to $39.99 per month it will have a more modest impact on lifting ARPSU than Sky Go.

Offering sport at $299 a year is a master class. People look for savings and on the face of it it's a saving. If you advertise well you can lock in these people for a whole year rather than just getting them for a month or so.
All they need now is the rugby championship to start up now that no kiwi will be watching in a stadium in nz.

[mistaTea]

Offering sport at $299 a year is a master class. People look for savings and on the face of it it's a saving. If you advertise well you can lock in these people for a whole year rather than just getting them for a month or so.
All they need now is the rugby championship to start up now that no kiwi will be watching in a stadium in nz.

Oh I agree, offering a discounted annual sub is brilliant - Sky get all of the money upfront, the customer makes some savings but is tied in for a year.

$299.99 is $25/month though - and that won’t last when sport gets back to normal (and Sky has to pay the full amount). But maybe they can offer $399.99 for an annual pass (~$33/month) versus $39.99 per month casual. That would still be a whopping 17.5% discount as a loyalty reward.

Also, the $299.99 pass only kicked in recently, I am not sure if it was available in June. If it was it would have had a modest impact on the APRSU result.

Interesting also that only 10% of satellite customers just take sport with starter. The vast majority of customers take Sky Entertainment too.

Hence, provision for adding more Sky content to their streaming services is going to be important to life ARPSU. A lot of customers value Sky’s other Entertainment content.

There is probably some content that could naturally be added to NEON as an upgrade (I.e get movies + box sets only for $13.99 but you can add Discovery content for another $X.xx).

And obviously Sky GO is going to play a big role. Many customers are happy to spent their savings. So if they don’t have to pay $15-$20/month for MySky they may pick up Movies etc.

[Dlownz]

Oh I agree, offering a discounted annual sub is brilliant - Sky get all of the money upfront, the customer makes some savings but is tied in for a year.

$299.99 is $25/month though - and that won’t last when sport gets back to normal (and Sky has to pay the full amount). But maybe they can offer $399.99 for an annual pass (~$33/month) versus $39.99 per month casual. That would still be a whopping 17.5% discount as a loyalty reward.

Also, the $299.99 pass only kicked in recently, I am not sure if it was available in June. If it was it would have had a modest impact on the APRSU result.

Interesting also that only 10% of satellite customers just take sport with starter. The vast majority of customers take Sky Entertainment too.

Hence, provision for adding more Sky content to their streaming services is going to be important to life ARPSU. A lot of customers value Sky’s other Entertainment content.

There is probably some content that could naturally be added to NEON as an upgrade (I.e get movies + box sets only for $13.99 but you can add Discovery content for another $X.xx).

And obviously Sky GO is going to play a big role. Many customers are happy to spent their savings. So if they don’t have to pay $15-$20/month for MySky they may pick up Movies etc.

You have to find the sweet point and I myself think 299 is it. People may only sign up during a all lacks season. (3 months of the year). So even if it was $50 a month. Your only bringing in $150. But if you offer it as a yearly well people see the saving and go for it. You have them locked in a year and as long as they don't unstick a box it rolls over the next year. Example xbox live cost $80 a year or you can get a monthly for 12.99 ish. Don't quote me. Huge saving.

[mistaTea]

I would also like to share some thoughts about the new set top box (STB) they are seriously considering.

I am sceptical.

Remember, Vodafone TV customers are included in the ARPSU figures of ~$20. Sure, Vodafone get to clip the ticket on any Sky bundles that are purchased on that platform...but if the Vodafone TV customers are taking packages in a similar way that Satellite customers are, then I would expect Sky to still be getting $50-$60 per customer on average.

If a significant amount of the 404K streaming subs were taking Vodafone TV, and paying Sky $50-$60 on average, I would expect APRSU to be much higher than $20 (especially given the average Sky Sport NOW sub was probably just over $40 too).

Now,I don't know the breakdown of the 404K subs - but clearly the vast majority right now are NEON subs. Damn near three quarters of these subs will be NEON right now.

So let's say the remaining 104 subs are split between Vodafone TV and Sky Sport NOW. What would that look like? 60/40? 70/30?

I don't think Vodafone TV has been very successful - because after a couple of years they only likely have 60 or 70 thousand customers (my best estimate).

Yet their platform is good now - it is reliable, not the best usability on the market but leagues ahead of MySky...it let's you house the most popular apps like NETFLIX, NEON, Amazon Prime, YOUTUBE, TVNZ On Demand etc...

It is a solid offering, and only costs $179...yet it does not seem to me to be that popular.

Now, maybe the box Sky are talking about will be 'even' better than VTV. Better UI, voice search, better remote control etc...but I dunno...

If loads of people wanted to stream Sky TV with a new STB I would have expected the uptake of Vodafone TV to be significantly higher by now. The fact that it isn't makes me question whether a new STB for Sky is going to do the trick.

Or is the reality now that most people don't want to stuff around with buying STB's...they just want to download an app, sign up and start watching?

People who want a STB are already spoilt for choice imo with AppleTV 4K, Vodafone TV, Smart vu...

No doubt Sky are considering all options, and they will have the recent customer survey results feeding into their decision...but I am not convinced, and it could end up being a flop. Or a only a partial success perhaps.

[mistaTea]

You have to find the sweet point...

Agree 100%, and if $299.99 is a sustainable sweet spot in 'normal times' then fantastic. Time will tell - but right now, signing up to Sky Sport NOW for a year is a no brainer even if you only enjoy a fraction of the sport they have on offer.

I have just used about 200GB of data in 5 days because I have had Sky Sport NOW streaming on my laptop pretty much all day while also watching some NEON and NETLFLIX shows :eek2:

[Dlownz]

I would also like to share some thoughts about the new set top box (STB) they are seriously considering.

I am sceptical.

Remember, Vodafone TV customers are included in the ARPSU figures of ~$20. Sure, Vodafone get to clip the ticket on any Sky bundles that are purchased on that platform...but if the Vodafone TV customers are taking packages in a similar way that Satellite customers are, then I would expect Sky to still be getting $50-$60 per customer on average.

If a significant amount of the 404K streaming subs were taking Vodafone TV, and paying Sky $50-$60 on average, I would expect APRSU to be much higher than $20 (especially given the average Sky Sport NOW sub was probably just over $40 too).

Now,I don't know the breakdown of the 404K subs - but clearly the vast majority right now are NEON subs. Damn near three quarters of these subs will be NEON right now.

So let's say the remaining 104 subs are split between Vodafone TV and Sky Sport NOW. What would that look like? 60/40? 70/30?

I don't think Vodafone TV has beeb very successful - because after a couple of years they only likely have 60 or 70 thousand customers.

Yet their platform is good now - it is reliable, not the best usability on the market but leagues ahead of MySky...it let's you house the most popular apps like NETFLIX, NEON, Amazon Prime, YOUTUBE, TVNZ On Demand etc...

It is a solid offering, and only costs $179...yet it does not seem to me to be that popular.

Now, maybe the box Sky are talking about will be 'even' better than VTV. Better UI, voice search, better remote control etc...but I dunno...

If loads of people wanted to stream Sky TV with a new STB I would have expected the uptake of Vodafone TV to be significantly higher by now. The fact that it isn't makes me question whether a new STB for Sky is going to do the trick.

Or is the reality now that most people don't want to stuff around with buying STB's...they just want to download an app, sign up and start watching?

People who want a STB are already spoilt for choice imo with AppleTV 4K, Vodafone TV, Smart vu...

No doubt Sky are considering all options, and they will have the recent customer survey results feeding into their decision...but I am not convinced, and it could end up being a flop. Or a only a partial success perhaps.

Its a interesting avenue to go down. I'd be interested although if and when I upgrade my TV they are all smart tvs now anyway so everythings on your remote anyway. Currently I use a chromecast and I'm quite happy with it. I have Netflix and neon. But want amazon prime and maybe Disney

[mistaTea]

Its a interesting avenue to go down. I'd be interested although if and when I upgrade my TV they are all smart tvs now anyway so everythings on your remote anyway. Currently I use a chromecast and I'm quite happy with it. I have Netflix and neon. But want amazon prime and maybe Disney

Yeah Chromecast is very good - and let’s your smart device become your remote.

Easy to use, provides a very reliable stream and is dirt cheap.

A Chromecast that allows 4K costs about a hundred bucks.

Many TV’s that aren’t ‘Smart TV’s’ still have NETFLIX and YOUTUBE as apps on them.

So yeah, I dunno - there are a lot of offerings out there for streaming.

Maybe this new box will be so super amazing that everyone wants one.

I dunno, but I am very very sceptical at this stage.

Would love to be proven wrong on this of course!!

[Dlownz]

Well that's the thing. A chromecast costs say $59. A 4k cost 100ish. A set top box costs 199. I brought a free view HD box years ago just do I could play TV through my xbox and never used the damm thing. Somethings seem good but end up being gimmicky. But if this is to future proof and replace there existing boxes while adding in some extra features then that sounds OK. Doesn't it?
Also have we seen the last of the dreaded goodwill right downs. I'm still not sold on the benefits of rugby fan pass. That money could have been spent better elsewhere.

[ba9]

Agree with you mistaTea on a new SKY box.

This is where SKY needs to do the math. Tech is not what it use to be.

The current and older sky boxes are easier to maintain/repair, as they serve a single purpose. And this was a necessity. There were no alternates.

Building a new box especially for Apps is only the start. Maintenance - Software wise is a major hurdle. Security/OS upgrades, bugs etc. And eventually as software matures, your hardware does not keep up as well. And not to mention additional call out's and also any hardware/warranty issues with the box. These are all costs, manpower and resources. Especially when customers have an alternate.

They could instead partner with existing devices on the market and recommend/offer choices to consumers. Example, Amazon fire 4k stick with Dolby HDR or Similar. You can buy these on Sale for less than $50-$70 on sale.

If i was SKT, i would focus my energy on constantly improving/maturing my Apps. Just like Netflix. I would release these Apps to work on most devices out there. Most Tv manufacturer's and most of the popular devices in the market. I believe this is where their focus and resources needs to go. Software is king.

I for one would never buy an additional box. And that is perhaps why Vodafone tv box may not be as popular. Consumers already have some sort of smart device at home, they are comfortable with. Just my thoughts and input.

[Ogg]

Had a good read of the annual report last night. Some key points:

- Sky paid $13.5m for Lightbox (page 89) - Deal of the year.
- Martin's base salary doubled to $1.5m (page 100) This is way too high given share price performance and market cap.
- The banking syndicate forced the placement (page 67) - Company has always given the impression it was done voluntary

[jimdog31]

Had a good read of the annual report last night. Some key points:

- Sky paid $13.5m for Lightbox (page 89) - Deal of the year.
- Martin's base salary doubled to $1.5m (page 100) This is way too high given share price performance and market cap.
- The banking syndicate forced the placement (page 67) - Company has always given the impression it was done voluntary

Re his salary - are you sure? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12166105 Remeber hed only been with the company 6 months last year

[Ogg]

Re his salary - are you sure? https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12166105 Remeber hed only been with the company 6 months last year

Perhaps it was because he did a half year in 2019.

But still, $1.5m is a lot.

Then he goes and buys just $37k of stock, lol.

[jimdog31]

Perhaps it was because he did a half year in 2019.

But still, $1.5m is a lot.

Then he goes and buys just $37k of stock, lol.

I guess when he came on board the Market Cap was a different story.... If hes worth $1.5 million, he needs to get that market cap back up. Im just going to through this out there... $37500 is 2.5% of his salary. Is that just his company kiwisaver contribution?

[Ogg]

I guess when he came on board the Market Cap was a different story.... If hes worth $1.5 million, he needs to get that market cap back up. Im just going to through this out there... $37500 is 2.5% of his salary. Is that just his company kiwisaver contribution?

Yeah, $1.5m was appropriate when he first took the reins, but now it looks way out of proportion. To think that he's already pocketed ~$2.5m by now plus benefits is shocking.

Also, they've let go a lot of their workforce but upper management is still sucking on the tits. You've got Handely on $100k doing nothing. Blair thinks he can go into an advisory job.

Another reason why a merger or takeover from Discovery seems like the right move here. There's still a lot of costs to come out.

[mistaTea]

Yeah, $1.5m was appropriate when he first took the reins, but now it looks way out of proportion. To think that he's already pocketed ~$2.5m by now plus benefits is shocking.

Also, they've let go a lot of their workforce but upper management is still sucking on the tits. You've got Handely on $100k doing nothing. Blair thinks he can go into an advisory job.

Another reason why a merger or takeover from Discovery seems like the right move here. There's still a lot of costs to come out.

LOL I love the way you take every little piece of information you can find and somehow manage to tie it back to ‘Ogg’s Mergergate’.

[jimdog31]

Yeah, $1.5m was appropriate when he first took the reins, but now it looks way out of proportion. To think that he's already pocketed ~$2.5m by now plus benefits is shocking.

Also, they've let go a lot of their workforce but upper management is still sucking on the tits. You've got Handely on $100k doing nothing. Blair thinks he can go into an advisory job.

Another reason why a merger or takeover from Discovery seems like the right move here. There's still a lot of costs to come out.

Ogg, what are your thoughts on them not taking the subsidy? I know its honorable, but why not if they qualified? that would have added some significant $$ to the bottom line which most companies that qualified have done?

[Ogg]

LOL I love the way you take every little piece of information you can find and somehow manage to tie it back to ‘Ogg’s Mergergate’.

Gotta push the narrative bro! :D

[Dlownz]

Ogg, what are your thoughts on them not taking the subsidy? I know its honorable, but why not if they qualified? that would have added some significant $$ to the bottom line which most companies that qualified have done?

Your right. Companies that could should have. It's free moneybut it's very hard when your a listed company trying to create a new better image of yourself.

[winner69]

Ogg, what are your thoughts on them not taking the subsidy? I know its honorable, but why not if they qualified? that would have added some significant $$ to the bottom line which most companies that qualified have done?

Pretty sure they didn’t qualify for the wage subsidy.

[mistaTea]

Pretty sure they didn’t qualify for the wage subsidy.

Yes you are right, they did not qualify.

That’s why they are boasting about it - not because they were being ‘honourable’.

They are saying - despite the huge economic turmoil that damn near every other business experienced and suffered under...our revenue streams are relatively robust and we were not impacted so badly. Nowhere near badly enough to qualify for the wage subsidy.

[Dlownz]

Now that nz doesn't have the rugby championship I think this favours sky very well. No need to pay someone to film it for them in nz. Just tap into the feed and sell the product

[ba9]

Yes. Pretty sure they would not qualify. As the revenue drop to the previous year had to be around 30-40%.

But it would be silly for any company to not take it, if they qualified for it. As it would have made a huge difference to the bottom line.

[mistaTea]

Yes. Pretty sure they would not qualify. As the revenue drop to the previous year had to be around 30-40%.

But it would be silly for any company to not take it, if they qualified for it. As it would have made a huge difference to the bottom line.

NEON subs exploded during the lockdown. Nobody in their right mind with a satellite entertainment bundle was canceling or reducing packages...

And only 1 in 12 sports subs ended up putting their sub on hold.

So yeah, revenue did not drop anywhere near the 30% needed for the wage subsidy.

[Ogg]

Ogg, what are your thoughts on them not taking the subsidy? I know its honorable, but why not if they qualified? that would have added some significant $$ to the bottom line which most companies that qualified have done?

My first entry into this stock was on the 23rd March, amidst the peak of Covid uncertainty. My thinking was that Covid would be a net benefit for Sky as more people stayed at home and consumed media. Sky not taking the subsidy was an indication to me that their business was immune to covid. Any business that was immune from covid should benefit from central bank support and global asset price inflation - but Sky has not and I don't know why.

Somehow, "Mr Market" drove this narrative of "no sports" for Sky being a bad thing. Data shows only a small percentage of customers canceled their sport package, even then, most still maintained other Sky services, and when sport did resume most got Sky Sports back.

Management has used Covid as an excuse for the decline in share price, when in fact Covid has nothing to do with it - if anything covid is a huge benefit. The wage subsidy is only a small monetary benefit for a short period of time. The biggest impact is the change in customer behavior over the long term. What we are seeing is more customers spend money on at home entertainment. You can see that in the data, such as Google trends, more people signing up to Neon and the slowing satellite churn.

Covid for Sky was really just a bump, there was uncertainty around how sports would be effected but the solution to that was simple, no crowds. There was some restructure costs and realignment but most of that is in the past.

What I'm really saying is that when assets like housing go up, and the price of Sky stays the same, the cost of Sky becomes cheaper. So therefore, $80 per month today is like $180 per month in 2010. The price of Sky relative to other entertainment options, like going to the cinema or eating out is becoming more economical as time goes on. Also, pirating content is becoming harder and harder. As a prolific pirate myself, I'm finding it harder and harder to get decent illegal sporting streams. I then compare this to actually buying legitimate access and I'm finding it's not worth the hassle.

The price of media is staying the same but asset prices continue to go up. So the typical person is buying a house, and then getting Sky because it's so cheap (relative to their house). Then they are staying at home to save money for the mortgage.

[Bjauck]

...

The price of media is staying the same but asset prices continue to go up. So the typical person is buying a house, and then getting Sky because it's so cheap (relative to their house). Then they are staying at home to save money for the mortgage. Sky subs are a consumable. I think Sky subs should be compared not to house (or other asset) prices but to net after tax incomes. If a greater proportion of after tax household income is swallowed up by housing/mortgage servicing/rent, then there is less left over for things like Sky. Especially if there are other cheaper online streaming options.

People have been staying home because of covid but that will be temporary. Of more relevance perhaps will be the long term effect on household incomes and the amount off discretionary spending power available for premium streaming services such as Sky.

[Getty]

LOL I love the way you take every little piece of information you can find and somehow manage to tie it back to ‘Ogg’s Mergergate’.

Ogg's the best aggregater in the business..

[winner69]

The touted F21 Scenario had revenues at $610m-$640m

This been upgraded by about 5% with top of the range now $670m

Slide 8 of the presentation shows July/August sales up about 19%

Must be expecting things to slacken off heaps if they forecast going from +19% after 2 months to miserable +5% for full year.

I think they still guessing big time, have no real idea what they doing ....and hoping like hell things get better.

[Dlownz]

The touted F21 Scenario had revenues at $610m-$640m

This been upgraded by about 5% with top of the range now $670m

Slide 8 of the presentation shows July/August sales up about 19%

Must be expecting things to slacken off heaps if they forecast going from +19% after 2 months to miserable +5% for full year.

I think they still guessing big time, have no real idea what they doing ....and hoping like hell things get better.
Maybe finally under promising over delivering wouldn't that be nice.

[Ogg]

Sky subs are a consumable. I think Sky subs should be compared not to house (or other asset) prices but to net after tax incomes. If a greater proportion of after tax household income is swallowed up by housing/mortgage servicing/rent, then there is less left over for things like Sky. Especially if there are other cheaper online streaming options.

People have been staying home because of covid but that will be temporary. Of more relevance perhaps will be the long term effect on household incomes and the amount off discretionary spending power available for premium streaming services such as Sky.

Sky's core market demographic is older people. As house prices go up they get richer and spend more on discretionary items, like Sky.

The younger generation, in their 20's and 30's, forgo Sky, but once they jump on the property ladder and get their mortgage repayments under control, they then spend on discretionary items, like Sky.

There are no cheaper streaming options. It was $50 to watch Mulan on Disney+. Spark sport is just as expensive with less content. Netflix is competitive but the average consumer is willing to spend more than just $15 per month.

Long term trend is more media consumption. This is not a temporary trend. Average screen time is going up.

[Ogg]

Ogg's the best aggregater in the business..

Me the last few months on this thread...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3PESuwYcK04

[nevchev]

The touted F21 Scenario had revenues at $610m-$640m

This been upgraded by about 5% with top of the range now $670m

Slide 8 of the presentation shows July/August sales up about 19%

Must be expecting things to slacken off heaps if they forecast going from +19% after 2 months to miserable +5% for full year.

I think they still guessing big time, have no real idea what they doing ....and hoping like hell things get better.

I would think subscriptions would be up in the winter

[Bjauck]

Sky's core market demographic is older people. As house prices go up they get richer and spend more on discretionary items, like Sky.

... As house prices have gone up so has the average age of first home buyers. Increasing house prices may produce "a feel good factor" which may counteract the "feel bad factor" from the epidemic. At the end of the day the increasing value of the house does not provide extra cash (unless the house is sold or downsized) to counteract the drop in investment income and the upcoming risk from the covid recession when subsidies are phased out.

[winner69]

I would think subscriptions would be up in the winter

Surely that would have factored into their F21 scenario ....and were 18% up ....but sales going to be below that forecast in some / many months

[Dlownz]

Maybe on the two months 19% up we may see a revised guidence upgrade up a further 5% in the future.

[ba9]

The touted F21 Scenario had revenues at $610m-$640m

This been upgraded by about 5% with top of the range now $670m

Slide 8 of the presentation shows July/August sales up about 19%

Must be expecting things to slacken off heaps if they forecast going from +19% after 2 months to miserable +5% for full year.

I think they still guessing big time, have no real idea what they doing ....and hoping like hell things get better.


This might be taking into account the conversion of satellite subs to streaming subs. Also some of the existing light-box customers may not renew their subs, once their contracts are up.

Anyways, we could literally tear forecasts from every company apart and assume one has no idea of what they are doing :)

[Dlownz]

This might be taking into account the conversion of satellite subs to streaming subs. Also some of the existing light-box customers may not renew their subs, once their contracts are up.

Anyways, we could literally tear forecasts from every company apart and assume one has no idea of what they are doing :)

Just as long as theirs no more goodwill write down as I recall last year's write down was a "one off write down"

[mistaTea]

Just as long as theirs no more goodwill write down as I recall last year's write down was a "one off write down"

I think they are always intended to be "one-offs" - but if mr Market decides to determine that Sky TV is only worth, say, $100M then they probably do have to write down again.

It can become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Anyway, the goodwill they are writing down is mostly a bull**** newspaper asset that doesn't even exist anymore (it was carried over to the balance sheet of Sky Network Television in 2005 when Sky was merged with Independent Newspapers Ltd). I don't care if there are more goodwill write-downs - it is a meaningless 'asset'.

[Dlownz]

When sky's next revenue guidence. I'm going to make guess since everything is a guess of upgraded revenue guidence of 660-690. The revenue increase in july/August may be the lightbox users now being charged and theyve held on to more users than what they thought. I suppose the next market update is November.

[mistaTea]

Agree with you mistaTea on a new SKY box.

This is where SKY needs to do the math. Tech is not what it use to be.

The current and older sky boxes are easier to maintain/repair, as they serve a single purpose. And this was a necessity. There were no alternates.

Building a new box especially for Apps is only the start. Maintenance - Software wise is a major hurdle. Security/OS upgrades, bugs etc. And eventually as software matures, your hardware does not keep up as well. And not to mention additional call out's and also any hardware/warranty issues with the box. These are all costs, manpower and resources. Especially when customers have an alternate.

They could instead partner with existing devices on the market and recommend/offer choices to consumers. Example, Amazon fire 4k stick with Dolby HDR or Similar. You can buy these on Sale for less than $50-$70 on sale.

If i was SKT, i would focus my energy on constantly improving/maturing my Apps. Just like Netflix. I would release these Apps to work on most devices out there. Most Tv manufacturer's and most of the popular devices in the market. I believe this is where their focus and resources needs to go. Software is king.

I for one would never buy an additional box. And that is perhaps why Vodafone tv box may not be as popular. Consumers already have some sort of smart device at home, they are comfortable with. Just my thoughts and input.

Totally mate - for satellite you have to have a STB...but in the new world of streaming, it really is not necessary. And you are right, by the time you factor in the cost of maintaining and upgrading the boxes, one would be excused for asking why we need to have an offering like this.

When Martin canned the Infinite Video project to focus on streaming, I could see why - building the new STB would be expensive, and how much return can you realistically expect from it?

Look, maybe their analysis will conclude that there is a market for it. If it stacks up, all good.

But the focus, in my view, needs to be in building out world class apps and ensuring they are available on all of the platforms that the vast majority want.

That includes working with TV manufacturers to ensure that TV's made for the NZ market have a 'Sky GO' button on the remote (like most of them now have for NETFLIX and YOUTUBE).

I think they will get much more uptake of the product by doing this, as opposed to trying to hock another STB...an extra cost that the vast majority can't be bothered with since it really is unnecessary to be able to stream content these days.

The way they made it sound though...the analysis is at an advanced stage and they have all but given the final sign off to go ahead.

[Zaphod]

The box isn't being developed by Sky, it's being customised. We used that box before when we lived overseas; it's an Nvidia Shield TV, probably last years version and it is rebranded by a number of companies. It provided a much better UI/UX than TV based apps.

[mistaTea]

The box isn't being developed by Sky, it's being customised. We used that box before when we lived overseas; it's an Nvidia Shield TV, probably last years version and it is rebranded by a number of companies. It provided a much better UI/UX than TV based apps.

Thanks for sharing that info - it does look like a nice UI - and perhaps they think it stacks up because the customisation costs won't be very high?

Time will tell if another STB in the market is successful. If the UI/UX really is amazeballs maybe they will get more interest than my initial thinking. If it is very popular then awesome, I am more than happy to be wrong :t_up:

[ba9]

Yes. Nvidia Shield is a great box. Powerful specs running Android TV. I currently use this. Bought mine back in 2015 when it first came out. Still going strong and nvidia still keeps it up-to date. It was around $200 USD with the gaming controller back then. (no remote)

When i subscribed to SKY, SKY SPORT App did not show on the Shield PLAY STORE. Got it sort of working via Side loading the App and using a mouse. As the App is not optimized for shield. Neon doesn't show either (don't subscribe to neon) :)"

Either way, SKT need to first work on getting their APPS to work on most devices in the market. I like the idea of "SKY GO" button on TV Remotes as mistaTea says :)

[mistaTea]

Yes. Nvidia Shield is a great box. Powerful specs running Android TV. I currently use this. Bought mine back in 2015 when it first came out. Still going strong and nvidia still keeps it up-to date. It was around $200 USD with the gaming controller back then. (no remote)

When i subscribed to SKY, SKY SPORT App did not show on the Shield PLAY STORE. Got it sort of working via Side loading the App and using a mouse. As the App is not optimized for shield. Neon doesn't show either (don't subscribe to neon) :)"

Either way, SKT need to first work on getting their APPS to work on most devices in the market. I like the idea of "SKY GO" button on TV Remotes as mistaTea says :)

https://youtu.be/OyAfh1SqNPI

The UI does indeed look nice - it will be interesting to see how Sky customise it for their content.

Still not completely sold on it...BUT...this STB looks like it has the potential to help a user surface content from multiple services into one handy UI.

That would be a gap in the market that Sky could possibly fill. So when you log in, on your home page you see what is trending and what is recommended for you based on your viewing history for all services you subscribe to. Helps you decide what to watch without necessarily having to launch each app and go hunting.

That would be a positive and could be popular.

Let’s see what happens - personally, I am 50/50 on the idea.

[tqtq]

https://youtu.be/OyAfh1SqNPI

The UI does indeed look nice - it will be interesting to see how Sky customise it for their content.

Still not completely sold on it...BUT...this STB looks like it has the potential to help a user surface content from multiple services into one handy UI.

That would be a gap in the market that Sky could possibly fill. So when you log in, on your home page you see what is trending and what is recommended for you based on your viewing history for all services you subscribe to. Helps you decide what to watch without necessarily having to launch each app and go hunting.

That would be a positive and could be popular.

Let’s see what happens - personally, I am 50/50 on the idea.

It does look nice. Very nice in fact. I wonder if it could be used for Satellite customers too? It’d also be a nice offering for new broadband customers that don’t have the latest tech for streaming. It’s a good idea to use off the shelf tech and customise it.

[mistaTea]

It’s a good idea to use off the shelf tech and customise it.

Totally, it took the insurance companies a while to figure that out too, but most of them of stopped building bespoke solutions.

The system does look good, and perhaps customising the box won’t cost ‘too much’ and is worth a punt.

Sceptical though I may be, ultimately I will trust Martin’s good judgement. His team have far more expertise than I do - and hopefully the new STB becomes the new ‘must have’ like MySky once was.

[mistaTea]

Remember, Vodafone TV customers are included in the ARPSU figures of ~$20. Sure, Vodafone get to clip the ticket on any Sky bundles that are purchased on that platform...but if the Vodafone TV customers are taking packages in a similar way that Satellite customers are, then I would expect Sky to still be getting $50-$60 per customer on average.

If a significant amount of the 404K streaming subs were taking Vodafone TV, and paying Sky $50-$60 on average, I would expect APRSU to be much higher than $20 (especially given the average Sky Sport NOW sub was probably just over $40 too).

Now,I don't know the breakdown of the 404K subs - but clearly the vast majority right now are NEON subs. Damn near three quarters of these subs will be NEON right now.

So let's say the remaining 104 subs are split between Vodafone TV and Sky Sport NOW. What would that look like? 60/40? 70/30?

I don't think Vodafone TV has been very successful - because after a couple of years they only likely have 60 or 70 thousand customers (my best estimate)...



Sh1t, I have just realised that I have made a terrible blunder in my reasoning.

Vodafone TV subs are not included in the 404K streaming subs.

They are part of the 585K satellite subscriptions!

So Vodafone TV may be doing a lot better than I thought - customers looking to hand back their MySky could be sold on the idea of cheaper Sky via Vodafone TV.

It also means those 404K subs are purely Neon/Lightbox (now merged) and Sky Sport NOW.

If the numbers of VTV are higher than my initial thinking - then perhaps this new STB does indeed have more merit than I initially supposed.

[Akane]

Sky's core market demographic is older people. As house prices go up they get richer and spend more on discretionary items, like Sky.

The younger generation, in their 20's and 30's, forgo Sky, but once they jump on the property ladder and get their mortgage repayments under control, they then spend on discretionary items, like Sky.

There are no cheaper streaming options. It was $50 to watch Mulan on Disney+. Spark sport is just as expensive with less content. Netflix is competitive but the average consumer is willing to spend more than just $15 per month.

Long term trend is more media consumption. This is not a temporary trend. Average screen time is going up.

I don't know about that.

I did a bit of door-to-door thing in my previous job, in the areas with lower social economic bracket, a lot of them spend more on in-home entertainment, the ares in the higher social economic areas tend to be busier with their lives and don't have much time to sit in front of the TV all the time.

Maybe they do purchase Pay TV services and not use them, but that's another story.

[jonu]

I don't know about that.

I did a bit of door-to-door thing in my previous job, in the areas with lower social economic bracket, a lot of them spend more on in-home entertainment, the ares in the higher social economic areas tend to be busier with their lives and don't have much time to sit in front of the TV all the time.

Maybe they do purchase Pay TV services and not use them, but that's another story.

Wow....this from a person who gave me negative reputation for calling out another member for bigotry (the other member was good about it and took it on the chin). Now Akane makes a bunch of assumptions about a socio-economic group who apparently aren't busy (unless of course they're working 3 jobs to survive) while apparently the better off economically are apparently (to them anyway) busier with their lives.

Bigotry feeds bigotry I guess.

[tqtq]

Funny (and ironic):


Sharesies blocks comments on Sky TV

Move follows spate of online speculation about the stock.


https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/sharesies-blocks-comments-sky-tv?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Heads%20Up

[Ogg]

Funny (and ironic):

Sharesies blocks comments on Sky TV

Move follows spate of online speculation about the stock.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/sharesies-blocks-comments-sky-tv?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Heads%20Up


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Takeover

[jonu]

Strong buying support @15 was shown on the close on Friday. Hopefully we have seen the last of the tree shakes.

[tqtq]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Takeover

Sharesies have done us all a great favour as they won't be able to voice their opinion on Sky which is usually negative given they all tend to see things through the same lens and rarely consider an alternative (or contrarian) views.

BTW I haven't read the article due to the paywall, but the headline and subhead reveal all I need to know.

[Tony Two Gloves]

One thing I guess we now know with Martin buying a few more shares, there is no take over offer in the near future - he couldn't possibly buy if he knew of something happening. I think the best we can hope for is is better than anticipated earnings (easily possible) and more broker updates to their assessment of value. Not having Sharesies negativity will also be a bonus!

[nevchev]

1mill shares at 15.3 disappeard quickly.I think market is waking up to the value here at these prices

[Ogg]

1mill shares at 15.3 disappeard quickly.I think market is waking up to the value here at these prices

Probably Blair snapping up more stock.

Before his takeov... (*cough) I mean advisory role.

[nevchev]

Probably Blair snapping up more stock.

Before his takeov... (*cough) I mean advisory role.

Newbe to skt so not opposed to a T/O.(providing price is right)

[gains]

Someone mentioned on this thread they had observed this trend a lot lately; when a company releases a good/not bad results (considering circumstances) we see the share price drop to later come back up.

I think we are just seeing the same trend repeated with SKT.. I'm holding.

[Dlownz]

I believe that was me. IkeGPS was the example I gave. I couldn't understand why it dropped so much. Then boom its up to 1.00 and a little bit back to 94 cents.

[Ogg]

I think institutional investors just needed a bit of time to read the reports and interrupt them.

Retail/noob investors bailed as soon as they saw the 'bottom line net loss figure'.

Looks like it's grinding higher.

[Quantitative Easing]

The next big event is the AGM in a month time. Hopefully they give us a trading update then. It's likely to be positive given resumption of sport and higher uptake of more valuable Sky Sport Now subscriptions. I wouldn't be surprised if they revise their earning guidance either at AGM or more likely at half year results in February.

[Quantitative Easing]

Also i feel as though lack of sport due to Covid has made sport much more exciting. It's like getting on the piss after dry July. I was even watching some Mitre 10 cup games over the weekend.

[mistaTea]

Also i feel as though lack of sport due to Covid has made sport much more exciting. It's like getting on the piss after dry July. I was even watching some Mitre 10 cup games over the weekend.

Plus the mitre10 games feature all blacks! Covid has def been a boon for that tournament!

[Ogg]

This week’s Tech Insights report looks at Discovery, the soon to be owners of Mediaworks. Discovery is best known for its flagship “Discovery Channel”, with such shows as ‘Man vs Wild’ and ‘Shark Week’.

Discovery has been involved in multiple acquisitions and capital raise events. More than doubling its net debt over the last 5 years. Acquisitions have focused on a range of entertainment providers including Golf Digest, the Oprah Whimpey Network, and Euro Sport. Discovery’s major acquisition to date was their purchase of Scripps Networks Interactive for US$15.4 billion in 2018.

It is interesting to compare the performance of Discovery with other well-known content providers, many of whom have struggled to maintain growth. The obvious exception is Netflix.

We hope you enjoy this week’s Tech Insights, it will be interesting to see how this plays out and what changes Discovery makes at Mediaworks. As always, if you know anyone who would like to be added to the distribution list – please email.


https://i.imgur.com/eKeJK4j.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/hnfWYpz.jpg

https://imgur.com/a/syxVYIU

[Tony Two Gloves]

Also i feel as though lack of sport due to Covid has made sport much more exciting. It's like getting on the piss after dry July. I was even watching some Mitre 10 cup games over the weekend.
Think my wife misunderstood what "Dry July" meant......

[tqtq]

https://i.imgur.com/eKeJK4j.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/hnfWYpz.jpg

https://imgur.com/a/syxVYIU

Thanks for sharing.
Clare Capital's EV of Sky works out to be about 0.207 nzd per share.
Also, Discovery's acquisition of Golf Digest is looks to be in the same $ range as Sky's acquisition of Rugby Pass.
Though Rugby Pass is likely to have better revenue possibilities.

[tqtq]

Also, are we happy to reelect the two directors at the AGM?

[Quantitative Easing]

Also, are we happy to reelect the two directors at the AGM?

It's not Handley, so feeling would be neutral. We need to roll Handley when he comes up for reelection next time.

[tqtq]

It's not Handley, so feeling would be neutral. We need to roll Handley when he comes up for reelection next time.

Yes, agreed.

[airedale]

Why should we not vote for Handley?

[Baa_Baa]

Why should we not vote for Handley?

Good question, people just get on the bandwagon and slag the guy because of what other people say based on their views of his motives to advertise his personal brand and particularly his business failures. I bet few if any have information about his contribution to the Sky board. But it won’t stop the slagging. Dyor

[tqtq]

Good question, people just get on the bandwagon and slag the guy because of what other people say based on their views of his motives to advertise his personal brand and particularly his business failures. I bet few if any have information about his contribution to the Sky board. But it won’t stop the slagging. Dyor

1. Share price. Think all board members need a grilling on this front too.
2. Legacy board member. Been there too long. Time to give someone else a shot. Other qualified people out there.
3. Not good for the transformation narrative, or for Martin. Other legacy board members should be put under the microscope too.
4. Generally unliked. Does Sky need to be associated with him?
5. Lacks good judgement. Yes, look at the way he promotes himself.
6. Not much skin in the game 17,584 SKT shares valued at around NZ$2,600
7. I'm a shareholder and have a right to vote against his re-election.
The list goes on. But happy for you to convince me otherwise if you can.

This appears to be a token role and fair enough he's not compensated a great deal but what's he going to add that he hasn't added already apart from perhaps an updated press release on how great he is?

[Ogg]

Why should we not vote for Handley?

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2018/08/nz-tech-is-losing-it-over-the-idea-of-derek-handley-as-cto-of-new-zealand.html

His suitability for the role of CTO, then, rests largely on his business CV, which is where a lot of the complaints seem to come from. "I don't think Derek Handley's success is at all attributable to a talent in tech," said Ben Gracewood, head of engineering at Vend.

"Handley would be a surprising, perhaps polarising choice," said Lance Wiggs, a tech investor and founder of the Punakaiki Fund. "His background does not show the sorts of experiences that would impress the IT industry, as it seems focused on branding and marketing rather than building reliable sustainable enterprise systems.

His selection could create controversy from investors in companies he has founded that subsequently floundered or failed. He's founded two ad agencies – he's not a technologist as far as I can tell."

[nevchev]

Nice floor around 0.15.Hopefully days below that are behind us now!This is ridiculously cheap

[Ogg]

Hopefully days below that are behind us now

15c is history... loonnnggg gone....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H-ICM0Kx08s

[nevchev]

Hahaha.loving the enthusiasm ogg!

[ba9]

If it wasn't for Ogg's enthusiasm/predictions and mistaTea's commitment, i would have said goodbye to Skt a long time ago.

Am glad to have stayed with SKT. They are now heading in the right direction and hopefully this truly reflects on the stock price :)

[bull....]

rocking 17 cents here we come

[winner69]

rocking 17 cents here we come

...17 and then to 18 bull

[Ogg]

If it wasn't for Ogg's enthusiasm/predictions and mistaTea's commitment, i would have said goodbye to Skt a long time ago.

Am glad to have stayed with SKT. They are now heading in the right direction and hopefully this truly reflects on the stock price :)


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz3PbpPR6DY

[nevchev]

It could run back to 16 if not 17 in the short term

Mr market never fails to impress.What were people thinking

[Ogg]

Mr market never fails to impress.What were people thinking


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHOVJINRD8

[see weed]

Why should we not vote for Handley?
Look up the SNK forum from 2013. All your answers will be there.

[stef]

Look up the SNK forum from 2013. All your answers will be there.

yeah, he talked things up, he didnt create wealth for shareholders

[Ogg]

I'm proposing a "scientific wager":

Similar to that of the Simon–Ehrlich wager: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

Background:

I was just having a look at the market cap of Z Energy, which as of today is $1.4B. It seems pretty large, especially considering that the stock has dropped so much recently. From a high of around $9, all the way down to $2.60 today. It got me thinking, in 20 or 30 years time, aren't all the cars on the road going to be electric? If so, why isn't this stock trading like it's Sky TV and going out of business?

The Wager

Here's the wager. Will satellite terrestrial TV outlive the gasoline car? In other words, will a significant amount of people still be using satellite TV when a significant amount of people are using electric cars, and therefore the need to fuel up with petrol is no longer necessary. Obviously, you're not going to get 100% of people driving electric cars and 0% of satellite and vice versa. But in general, will the average person still have a coaxial satellite connection with their TV, when the average person has an electric car?

The Stakes

In the year 2040: Loser has to either full up the winner car with a full tank of petrol or pay for one years of satellite television.

Any takers?

[Ogg]

I'll be more specific:

I think satellite TV penetration (including Freeview) is about 50% of NZ households.

I think today 10% of new cars are electric in NZ.

So in the year 2040, will there be more satellite TV's than petrol cars in NZ households?

[ba9]

Interesting comparison Ogg. Goes to show how much energy you put into SKT :)

I believe satellite tv will be dead by 2040 or sooner. Elon is already building the Starlink network. And others will soon follow. This will eliminate the need for a physical connection for internet to household.

Similarly, electric or hydrogen which ever may be our future. Gasoline cars may go the cigarettes way. Get extremely expensive to run.

[mistaTea]

I'll be more specific:

I think satellite TV penetration (including Freeview) is about 50% of NZ households.

I think today 10% of new cars are electric in NZ.

So in the year 2040, will there be more satellite TV's than petrol cars in NZ households?

Someone is very bored! :eek2:

I thought you were going to 'take matters into your own hands' if no takeover happened when the results were announced? Or did that comment just refer to a pending 'duel with the pink Darth Vader'?

[Ogg]

Interesting comparison Ogg. Goes to show how much energy you put into SKT :)

I believe satellite tv will be dead by 2040 or sooner. Elon is already building the Starlink network. And others will soon follow. This will eliminate the need for a physical connection for internet to household.

Similarly, electric or hydrogen which ever may be our future. Gasoline cars may go the cigarettes way. Get extremely expensive to run.

You're basically saying that they are both crap. But which one will die first? And if they're both crap, how come Z Energy isn't trading as low as Sky?

[Ogg]

Someone is very bored! :eek2:

I thought you were going to 'take matters into your own hands' if no takeover happened when the results were announced? Or did that comment just refer to a pending 'duel with the pink Darth Vader'?

The latest is that once Discovery get ComCom approval, they are going to call Martin to have a discussion about the future. So until then, we have to wait.

[mistaTea]

The latest is that once Discovery get ComCom approval, they are going to call Martin to have a discussion about the future. So until then, we have to wait.

You are going to upset the FMA with comments like that!

[ba9]

You're basically saying that they are both crap. But which one will die first? And if they're both crap, how come Z Energy isn't trading as low as Sky?

I am only saying satellite TV will die. Not Streaming.

I would be guessing if i had to pick one. Electric cars seemed far, but Elon closed the gap and changed people's perception in a very short time.


C'mon Ogg. Currently, there is no rationale on how some stocks are valued in the market. CBD for example and a few more.

SKT has over 900K paying subscribers. For any company with that sort of subscriptions and to still trade around .15c is just ridiculous.

Other from streaming, Heck for any large multinational this is a huge customer base to do anything with.

[Ogg]

You are going to upset the FMA with comments like that!

...........

[Zaphod]

I am only saying satellite TV will die. Not Streaming.


Technically that is comparing apples and oranges. Satellite-based internet delivery is ramping up (e.g. SpaceX starlink) which can provide streaming... But I get your point.

[mistaTea]

If they broke down their satellite customers to show how many of the 585K are streaming with Vodafone TV it would give a much clearer idea as to how long ‘traditional satellite pay tv’ is likely to go on for.

I would think that within 10 years the subscriber numbers will have dropped below the point where it no longer makes economic sense to continue offering the service.

But that is a pure guess - I don’t really have any idea.

[Entrep]

SKT has over 900K paying subscribers. For any company with that sort of subscriptions and to still trade around .15c is just ridiculous.



Remember not to confuse share price with market cap

[tqtq]

Remember not to confuse share price with market cap

Lol. I think you’re thinking of Stuff.

[winner69]

Looking forward to Aussie v England cricket Thursday night ....series decider

[Teatree]

I'll happily do either if I'm still around in 2040

[Quantitative Easing]

IMO i think Satellite TV is likely to disappear earlier than gasoline vehicles. OPEC is still very powerful and will fight tooth and nail to keep the oil industry alive. Satellite TV industry doesn't have the same big backing. Also i feel as though streaming has matured more than electric vehicles at this stage. It's still not possible to drive from Auckland to Levin in one charge (correct me if i am wrong). Comparatively, streaming has had far more penetration in NZ and around the world.

[Airw0lf]

IMO i think Satellite TV is likely to disappear earlier than gasoline vehicles. OPEC is still very powerful and will fight tooth and nail to keep the oil industry alive. Satellite TV industry doesn't have the same big backing. Also i feel as though streaming has matured more than electric vehicles at this stage. It's still not possible to drive from Auckland to Levin in one charge (correct me if i am wrong). Comparatively, streaming has had far more penetration in NZ and around the world.

The Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona are two EVs that have max ranges of about 420 km and can be purchased in NZ today. Give it a couple of years and improvements in battery technology will likely take you to 500 km+ relatively comfortably.

[Ogg]

The Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona are two EVs that have max ranges of about 420 km and can be purchased in NZ today. Give it a couple of years and improvements in battery technology will likely take you to 500 km+ relatively comfortably.

So what are you saying, that gasoline cars will disappear before satellite? Why aren't you shorting ZEL?

[kiora]

"They say data is the oil of the 21st century, and to invest in data would be a wise method to generate ROI, but I believe there's an underappreciation for the extent to which the digital ad revolution is creating companies that have outstripped the size of even the largest oil giants of the 20th century.

While there are still decades during which this field will evolve, investing in companies at the heart of this trend will surely result in substantial returns for the decade ahead.

And Roku and Amazon are just two ways to play it!"
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4374141-this-is-one-of-greatest-secular-growth-trends?source=email_must_read:position_0&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&mail_subject=must-read-this-is-one-of-the-greatest-secular-growth-trends&utm_campaign=nl-must-read&utm_content=link-0

[Airw0lf]

So what are you saying, that gasoline cars will disappear before satellite? Why aren't you shorting ZEL?

No it's not as simple as that. EVs will soon be leaving ICEs in their wake both in terms of price and performance but car fleets take time to turn over. That said, there are lots of regulatory policies and incentives popping up all over the world for EV uptake, despite what the oil and gas lobby might want.

The thing that perhaps counts against satellite TV is that compared to car owners around the world there are relatively few decision makers - hundreds/thousands of pay TV operators vs. millions and millions of car owners. If pay TV operators see the economics of satellite wane, and have a ready alternative in internet streaming, they might all jump ship in the space of a few years, contractual arrangements (with the satellite companies) permitting. Presumably there's also some kind of death spiral in terms of fewer and fewer pay TV operators paying for more and more of the satellite as the flight away from satellite occurs. This would just accelerate the shift away from satellite.

But ultimately, that doesn't worry me as a SKT shareholder too much. In fact the sooner they can abandon satellite and make a successful transition to a streaming platform the better really. As many posters have said here, it's all about how they execute against that in the face of competition from the Sparks, Amazons and Netflixes of the world.

[ba9]

The Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona are two EVs that have max ranges of about 420 km and can be purchased in NZ today. Give it a couple of years and improvements in battery technology will likely take you to 500 km+ relatively comfortably.

Sorry. Slightly off SKT . Model 3 Long Range model has a range of 620Km :)

[Airw0lf]

Sorry. Slightly off SKT . Model 3 Long Range model has a range of 620Km :)

Yes you are quite correct, I kind of restricted myself to just "vanilla" versions of commonly available EVs. There's no doubt standard EV models in a couple years' time will do that sort of range easily.

[Airw0lf]

1. Share price. Think all board members need a grilling on this front too.
2. Legacy board member. Been there too long. Time to give someone else a shot. Other qualified people out there.
3. Not good for the transformation narrative, or for Martin. Other legacy board members should be put under the microscope too.
4. Generally unliked. Does Sky need to be associated with him?
5. Lacks good judgement. Yes, look at the way he promotes himself.
6. Not much skin in the game 17,584 SKT shares valued at around NZ$2,600
7. I'm a shareholder and have a right to vote against his re-election.
The list goes on. But happy for you to convince me otherwise if you can.

This appears to be a token role and fair enough he's not compensated a great deal but what's he going to add that he hasn't added already apart from perhaps an updated press release on how great he is?

Good Lord. My share portfolio is a pretty small one compared to many on this forum (circa $75k) and SKT is one of my smallest holdings. Yet I have only slightly fewer shares than Handley.

[nevchev]

Good Lord. My share portfolio is a pretty small one compared to many on this forum (circa $75k) and SKT is one of my smallest holdings. Yet I have only slightly fewer shares than Handley.

Seems hes not that popular. Can we do much about it?

[bull....]

jupiter selling down shareholding. only 154 million shares to go

[mistaTea]

jupiter selling down shareholding. only 154 million shares to go

They purchased 4 million more shares since their last disclosure mate.

[nevchev]

jupiter selling down shareholding. only 154 million shares to go

Huh?might want to look at that again

[Balance]

They purchased 4 million more shares since their last disclosure mate.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359810/330787.pdf

Yup - increased their shareholding but %tage down due to dilution from new shares issued.

[Tony Two Gloves]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359810/330787.pdf

Yup - increased their shareholding but %tage down due to dilution from new shares issued.
So how do you get "Selling down" from that?

[Balance]

So how do you get "Selling down" from that?

Some posters shoot from the hip - read and post without any thought.

bull.... is one of them it seems.

[bull....]

lol must be due for some new glasses. anyway just finished reading sparks 3yr strategy and sport features high on there list. so they are not running away but looking to grow it

[Tony Two Gloves]

Some posters shoot from the hip - read and post without any thought.

bull.... is one of them it seems.
haha yes - At a quick glance you would see the shareholding %age has decreased and draw the conclusion they must have sold some shares when in fact they have bought 3.3M additional one's. I think it's a good sign....

[GR8DAY]

.......should revisit 16c again today?.....and hopefully end up above. Starting to feel like a degree of support is creeping in now.

[Quantitative Easing]

lol must be due for some new glasses. anyway just finished reading sparks 3yr strategy and sport features high on there list. so they are not running away but looking to grow it

Slide 63:

"Limited additional sports contentfor next 18-24 months"

By then Sky would have either completely transformed and better positioned or would have been taken over...

[Ogg]

It's good news that the largest shareholder isn't running for the doors and willing to continue to back management's turnaround plan.

Will they continue buying so they can get back up over 10% and get a front row seat at the takeover table?

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227594

Interest write up about Sky - including reference to being a potential takeover target by Discovery.

[Ogg]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227594

Interest write up about Sky - including reference to being a potential takeover target by Discovery.

Thanks, PM me the article like you always do.

[bull....]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227594

Interest write up about Sky - including reference to being a potential takeover target by Discovery.

speculation at best , i see sharesis has banned this type of speculation about skt

[mistaTea]

Thanks, PM me the article like you always do.

haha, you know I hate it when you PM me and beg mate. Take NO for an answer already!

:D

[Ogg]

haha, you know I hate it when you PM me and beg mate. Take NO for an answer already!

:D

The article does look juicy. Just my type of thing - an opinion piece fulled with unsubstantiated rumors. I might get a subscription.

[Balance]

The article does look juicy. Just my type of thing - an opinion piece fulled with unsubstantiated rumors. I might get a subscription.

Seems like Discovery is going to have to make a move ASAP before the speculation drives the sp to 50c?

[Zaphod]

The article does look juicy. Just my type of thing - an opinion piece fulled with unsubstantiated rumors. I might get a subscription.

LOL! Be careful, your modus operandi is showing.

[Quantitative Easing]

The article does look juicy. Just my type of thing - an opinion piece fulled with unsubstantiated rumors. I might get a subscription.

Looks like NBR gets its news from Sharetrader forum lol...

Guys can we get this circulating around mainstream media (Herald etc...) and indirectly to sharesies users through reddit etc...

[tqtq]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/227594

Interest write up about Sky - including reference to being a potential takeover target by Discovery.

Keep up the good work Ogg!