View Full Version : SKT Sky Network Television Limited.
With Price Per Share now $0.16 cents vs AU$130 Per Share hopefully you changed your inclination from SKY to XERO........
Xero takeover
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU
mistaTea
11-11-2020, 05:29 PM
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0031/227947/NEP-Cross-submission-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-9-November-2020.pdf
Thank you for sharing!
Thank you for sharing!
Seems like consent should go through without a problem.
Point 4 is interesting.
DownTownJr
11-11-2020, 05:33 PM
Seems like consent should go through without a problem.
Point 4 is interesting.
When will the decision be made?
When will the decision be made?
23rd November.
Dlownz
11-11-2020, 07:00 PM
It's a great sign sky has turned the corner. Next things that will help will be the revaluations by investment companys. I believe the range was 17cents from one to 25 cents another what will the revised be. 19 to 28. That will help anither increase and the next one will be just like NZME. Once they announced a dividend the share price hasn't really stopped moving.
mistaTea
11-11-2020, 09:15 PM
Found the full quote from a poster named Phaedrus (moimoi shared the end bit a while back).
I wish I had Phaedrus as a mentor, but alas he called it quits on Sharetrader in 2011 after amassing his wealth (he figured it was a better use of his time to dine on a cruise down the French Riviera than keep trying to educate the unwashed on ST. I don't blame him!).
When I step back after reading his thoughts, I think so much of what he describes below is applicable to Sky TV.
Though I do genuinely like the company and view myself as a long term owner - trying to dollar cost average as the stock price continued in its downward spiral was damned foolish of me. With a little luck, this lesson will stick.
In addition, any notion from me that Mr Market is wrong...and I somehow know more is not only ridiculous - it is laughable. Incredibly intelligent men and women are setting the price of our listed businesses, and there is just no way that I am smarter than them or have some kind of 'special insight' that they can't grasp.
In my case with Sky - i am happy to continue holding as I do enjoy being an owner of this business. But that is not to say I haven't screwed this investment up - because I clearly have.
Let's hope posters who are bearish on Sky return to this forum as I have been the guiltiest at shouting them down :(
Technically, Tricha, you would have to be classed as a slow learner! You make a habit of buying downtrending stocks and pay a very high price for your folly. Here is an example of the actions of people (not just you) that had "done their homework" and bought regardless of the fact that the stock in question was in a clear downtrend. We can all learn a lot from these ill-advised comments and actions.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/adyavdn.gif
The posters here were so sure that they had assessed the fundamentals of this stock accurately that they were unwilling, indeed unable to accept that they had got it wrong. Some even bragged that they never used stop-losses! Month after month, their optimistic prognostications were crushed as the inexorable downtrend continued. They were in a hole but did they stop digging? No, they dug deeper, buying more and more, averaging down as the shareprice progressively collapsed. Throwing good money after bad. See how the posters influenced each other with their comments - threads like this become support groups for those that have all made the same mistake. The effects of "group think" are all too evident as they lead each other down the garden path.
These "toxic" threads share many similarities and are quite easily identified. Here are a few pointers :-
Watch for a preponderance of overly loyal extremely positive contributions.
Any negative posters are "run off the thread".
When negative posters are accused of "downramping" you can be sure that all objectivity has been lost.
Look out for multitudinous "cut and paste" entries of scarcely relevant articles from the net.
Beware of threads where anyone posting a negative comment is personally attacked.
Dissenting views should be encouraged, not rubbished. We learn nothing from those that agree with us.
Watch for comments on "ignorant" selling by institutions, techies etc - by people that think they know better.
Typical key phrases :-
I hope the price doesn't rise too much - I'm still buying.
This stock is worth $xxx
If it drops any more, I'm backing up the truck.
I can't believe that the market has got this one so wrong.
Have you noticed all those suspicious trades just at the close?
I'm buying $1 for 50 cents.
Why are you posting here if you don't hold this stock?
Oh goody - the price has dropped. I can now buy more!
The market is being manipulated by insiders.
There are very important lessons to be learnt from disasters like this. In my opinion, the more obvious ones are :-
(1) Don't buy stocks that are in a downtrend.
(2) Don't buy without first setting a point at which you will accept that you have made a mistake.
(3) When/if this point is hit, SELL. Immediately. You can always buy back when/if the trend reverses.
(4) Never add to a losing position. Don't average down. EVER.
(5) Be very careful not to get caught up in other peoples enthusiasm for a particular stock.
(6) Meticulous calculations of a stocks "worth" are meaningless if the market disagrees with you.
(7) Remenber, if your opinion is at variance with market sentiment, YOU are wrong, not the market!
airedale
11-11-2020, 10:07 PM
I remember that post and like Tricha I have done my share of...slow learning. Phaedrus was a scholar and a gentleman..He would have known the best time to buy SKY and would have been happy to post it if asked.
Gregnz
11-11-2020, 10:13 PM
Found the full quote from a poster named Phaedrus (moimoi shared the end bit a while back).
I wish I had Phaedrus as a mentor, but alas he called it quits on Sharetrader in 2011 after amassing his wealth (he figured it was a better use of his time to dine on a cruise down the French Riviera than keep trying to educate the unwashed on ST. I don't blame him!).
When I step back after reading his thoughts, I think so much of what he describes below is applicable to Sky TV.
Though I do genuinely like the company and view myself as a long term owner - trying to dollar cost average as the stock price continued in its downward spiral was damned foolish of me. With a little luck, this lesson will stick.
In addition, any notion from me that Mr Market is wrong...and I somehow know more is not only ridiculous - it is laughable. Incredibly intelligent men and women are setting the price of our listed businesses, and there is just no way that I am smarter than them or have some kind of 'special insight' that they can't grasp.
In my case with Sky - i am happy to continue holding as I do enjoy being an owner of this business. But that is not to say I haven't screwed this investment up - because I clearly have.
Let's hope posters who are bearish on Sky return to this forum as I have been the guiltiest at shouting them down :(
That image you posted is almost me to a tee, but instead of Sky, its A2 Milk.
Ive convinced myself at every dip that its a good time to top up. And that dip keeps dipping. At least starting to see some light the past few days.
Cash_Lion
11-11-2020, 11:23 PM
Could have been the lockdown effect, more people at home generally means more indoor entertainment. The last Six months pretty much covers the whole of that period, it is a bit of a leap to say it is a long term trend.
Still good news though, when all said and done.
No but during lockdown they weren't allowed to visit homes AT ALL. It should've had the opposite effect.. SKT emphasised it was due to good customer management/service and probably their package flexability, finally listening to the consumers thanks to Martin.
KJMLimited
12-11-2020, 08:37 AM
PER of 13x approx at the low NPAT forecast of $20m. That doesn't look expensive. There's still a way to go for Sky, but it is no longer the basket case it was before the rights issue.
Alpha
12-11-2020, 11:02 AM
Getting close now to Arie Dekker's price of 0.17 - Wonder if he will upgrade.
Personally I prefer 0.35 that Greg smith has them at. ;)
I think the issue we have, when shares were 12 something cents, people bought millions of the things, and I suspect many are getting impatient waiting for the value of their shares to improve.
This is what's plagued the share price.
It was such a heavy placement that many investors had to be overweight to avoid getting diluted.
Also, institutional investors who participated in the placement have dumped heaps of stock for a quick profit.
There's just not enough new investors taking up the liquidity.
Hopefully the over hang has been cleared.
Stocks like NZME have gone up because there are big holders accumulating. Seems like the only people buying Sky are the posters here.
Gregnz
12-11-2020, 12:20 PM
This is what's plagued the share price.
It was such a heavy placement that many investors had to be overweight to avoid getting diluted.
Also, institutional investors who participated in the placement have dumped heaps of stock for a quick profit.
There's just not enough new investors taking up the liquidity.
Hopefully the over hang has been cleared.
Stocks like NZME have gone up because there are big holders accumulating. Seems like the only people buying Sky are the posters here.
I laugh when I look at the sharesies facebook group as Sky in their view is probably the worst investment on the NZX. They would prefer to put all their eggs into the Cannasouth or Rua basket. Even though those companies have very little prospect of making a profit.
Yet, each morning you can quite literally see the queue of Shareises buyers, plenty of orders, tiny volume. I mean who wants to buy 100 shares in SKT, for goodness sake at least buy 1000 and spend $160!
I suspect they quietly think perhaps it is a good investment but dont want to be seen to be changing sides.
mistaTea
12-11-2020, 12:31 PM
Getting close now to Arie Dekker's price of 0.17 - Wonder if he will upgrade.
Personally I prefer 0.35 that Greg smith has them at. ;)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/infratil-earnings-buoyed-by-vodafone-cdc-data-centres-contributions/NWFZLSUOXMNP4YHWPKH33COLAA/
Of interest to me, the $3.4B value ascribed to Vodafone is about 15 times EBITDA ($225M).
Sky has upgraded its EBITDA forecast to a range of $140-155M.
Let's use the lower number. Well, if Sky can hold an EBITDA of around $140M and if Sky can make a successful transition to becoming a telco...even an EBITDA multiple of 10 would still give Sky a theoretical $1.4B value (80c per share). Lowering our sights even further, if there was still a lot of pessimism about Sky (despite the successful transition) relative to a business like Vodafone (due to the inevitable escalation on content costs, particularly for Sport) then an EBITDA multiple of only 5 would still theoretically value the business at $700M (40c per share).
That is my back of the envelope 'apples with apples' comparison attempt anyway - perhaps others will be able to point out some flaws in my thinking?
It is all about how sustainable the market can assess Sky's earnings to realistically be, given the challenges. Right now the market seems to have valued Sky cautiously because there are just so many variables and uncertainties at play.
I am not making any price predictions here (by now we all know that I am completely out of my depth when it comes to that), and clearly the market is going to need a lot of convincing by Sky's future results to have confidence in Sky's sustainability given the massive disruption happening in its core business. I do personally find it useful to make the Vodafone-type comparisons though - because that is the journey Sky is now firmly on.
But right now there are just too many 'ifs' and 'maybes' - I am still personally optimistic about the future prospects of Sky, but as it stands now - The Market has assessed the value fairly (and will continue to do so as the situation changes - for better or worse!). It is much more likely that I have miscalculated in my analysis than anything else.
Snow Leopard
12-11-2020, 12:38 PM
SKT is now one, actually the smallest, of my 'big 7' NZX holdings after a combination of the price rise and some buying yesterday.
Still have a value for this around 27c and think it is absolutely compelling buying up and including 18c.
However the future has a habit of mocking my valuations. DYOR
Alpha
12-11-2020, 02:13 PM
Some big volume going through today
Gregnz
12-11-2020, 03:42 PM
Good to see it not going backwards today which was my fear. Long may it last.
Back in the positive! :t_up:
Back in the positive! :t_up:
Me too. Happy days!
For the sake of my mental health I've had to trim a bit of my holdings. It was ridiculous how much stock I had. You can expect to see more normal posts from me now.
For the sake of my mental health I've had to trim a bit of my holdings. It was ridiculous how much stock I had. You can expect to see more normal posts from me now.
Fair enough. But you must make sure you hang onto some for when they make the broadband announcement.
For the sake of my mental health I've had to trim a bit of my holdings. It was ridiculous how much stock I had. You can expect to see more normal posts from me now.
So it was you confessing now to guilt on suppressing the action ? ;)
How are the feelings on any number of mysterious parties throwing a cheeky T/o move or two into the mix ? ;)
As they say - the more, the merrier the party .. ;)
Dlownz
12-11-2020, 06:14 PM
Mista tea got to Ogg yesterday with the post from yesterday. It's ok to sell down to deleverage. Sky's announcement yesterday was great and timely. They do still have a way to go but the changes happening are now showing which is great for a very hammered and unloved stock. While I believe the broadband will be a great addition to there existing service its one that will take 2-3years to build a customer base and flow through to results. Their existing bases though to start from is something many company's would envy about. The plans they come out with will be of great interest. I'm actually hoping they cut the prices well they will shave there average satallite customer price down but the pick up in customers could substantially make up for it. A resumption in dividends in the very near future does not look as crazy as it seemed only 6 months ago. NZME have done it so I can't see why sky can't. When they do make that announment next year I'd expect a similar climb to what we've seen from nzme.
My question for anyone out there is what's everyone's opinion on a share consolidation next year or after.
Share consolidation is a good idea just to change the perception of the stock out in the marketplace. It does get a little embarrassing when people say that it was $4 only a few years ago.
Dlownz
12-11-2020, 06:24 PM
Share consolidation is a good idea just to change the perception of the stock out in the marketplace. It does get a little embarrassing when people say that it was $4 only a few years ago.
How much would a share consolidation cost. A 5-1 might be a good idea.
clown
12-11-2020, 06:25 PM
For the sake of my mental health I've had to trim a bit of my holdings. It was ridiculous how much stock I had. You can expect to see more normal posts from me now.
I'm all out... Will be back next year hopefully. Didn't have huge lot anyway :)
How much would a share consolidation cost. A 5-1 might be a good idea.
I'd even go 10-1
Dlownz
12-11-2020, 06:35 PM
I'd even go 10-1
Wow. I thought 5-1 might have been too aggressive. Does anyone know the cost of a share consolidation. For some reason I'm thinking 12mil in my head not sure why. If that is the case might be out of sky's budget and planning at this stage
Alpha
12-11-2020, 06:58 PM
Ogg how much did you sell. Fair enough but surely the Take over is only a day away :)
Wow. I thought 5-1 might have been too aggressive. Does anyone know the cost of a share consolidation. For some reason I'm thinking 12mil in my head not sure why. If that is the case might be out of sky's budget and planning at this stage
The register is electronic so it shouldn’t be that expensive even though it’s across two exchanges. I would have thought it was admin fees, and mail out costs mostly. But I suppose there’s be a few lawyer head hours and internal meeting costs. So maybe that makes in 10mil? Lol. I really have no idea.
Alpha
12-11-2020, 07:19 PM
Dam should have been a lawyer.
mistaTea
12-11-2020, 08:01 PM
Mista tea got to Ogg yesterday with the post from yesterday.
Actually Ogg had already sold the shares before I shared the Phaedrus post.
I think it is fair to say that both of us have reflected on our behaviour after really absorbing the lesson from Phaedrus.
Especially me - I have been a horses ass.
Dlownz
12-11-2020, 08:04 PM
For the sake of my mental health I've had to trim a bit of my holdings. It was ridiculous how much stock I had. You can expect to see more normal posts from me now.
Actually Ogg had already sold the shares before I shared the Phaedrus post.
I think it is fair to say that both of us have reflected on our behaviour after really absorbing the lesson from Phaedrus.
Especially me - I have been a horses ass.
Just a little. Glad we have stopped the take over talk. Sky's in it for the long haul.
Back to normal talk about directions and my questions that haven't been answered. 😜
Lion_graf
12-11-2020, 08:13 PM
The biggest ramper has trimmed his holding. Why? Investing elsewhere? Ogg please tell us what to do. This thread has been a piece of history and now we are all lost. :(
Ogg how much did you sell. Fair enough but surely the Take over is only a day away :)
The biggest ramper has trimmed his holding. Why? Investing elsewhere? Ogg please tell us what to do. This thread has been a piece of history and now we are all lost. :(
I trimmed about 1/3 of my holdings at low 16's average.
Look, I'm hugely overweight in this stock. This is my first sell since my first entry into this stock back in March.
I built up a massive position on the assumption that a takeover was imminent but I've been proved wrong. I've had to take some risk off the table and rebalance things in my life.
I was devastated when IFT announced that they were using their liquidity to buy Qscan. It's obvious that they have no interest in buying Sky, at least not anytime soon.
A takeover could still happen any day but it seems likely that it won't happen this year. Sky and Discovery need to get ComCom clearance before any talks. I doubt anything will happen over the Christmas/NY holidays. The next major news will be half year results in February.
The broadband announcement will likely not move the stock much. Maybe some Sharesies users will buy in but it won't effect Sky's earnings. It's more of a long term strategic strategy to reduce churn.
Having said all that, the earnings upgrades confirms that Sky is back on track and most of the risk about a "Blockbuster" collapse is gone. Not that there was any risk of that happening anyway. The point is, the market is finally realising that this company isn't dying. This should confirm it's place in the NZX50.
It's disappointing that the market doesn't value Sky the way I see it. It is what it is. You can't blame people. Who has the balls to buy in a massive downtrend like this anyway. Just mention this company's name to any of your friends and it sends a shivers down their spine. The company is cursed! Even Sharesies has banned them, just lol.
I still have plenty left on the table here. Maybe a takeover comes, maybe it doesn't. I'm more comfortable about my holdings now and I can sleep at night.
The moral of the story is, don't buy in a down trend. Buy a stock that will be around in 100 years - even if it has no earnings and is complete bullsh!t. At least this way you have something to tell the next sucker who buys your holdings.
I trimmed about 1/3 of my holdings at low 16's average.
Look, I'm hugely overweight in this stock. This is my first sell since my first entry into this stock back in March.
Good move, well done.
mistaTea
13-11-2020, 10:43 AM
Good move, well done.
Agreed, Ogg has taken a sensible course of action.
Alpha
13-11-2020, 10:55 AM
Ogg did you just sell another 1M offmarket?
Ogg did you just sell another 1M offmarket?
That's funny. You're going to get sh*t now Ogg every time someone sells and the price goes down.
Good move, well done.
Agreed, Ogg has taken a sensible course of action.
There's nothing good about this.
I blame Martin for everything.
If I were CEO I wouldn't have done the placement. It was stupid and unnecessary. The timing was terrible and they had enough liquidity. The problem was that they bought RugbyPass (which was a mistake) and went directly into broadband. They should have just done a partnership deal for both. This would of avoided doing a placement. All the placement has done is thrown holders like NZRU under the bus and created a toxic share registry.
As CEO, I would have stripped out all the costs, closed down OSB, done partnership deals with RugbyPass and either Vodafone or 2degrees for the broadband. I would have sold off or closed down Neon. I wouldn't have bought Lightbox either.
I would have focused 100% of my time on doing a merger and working with the ComCom and ministry of broadcasting. I would have used the bondholders to my advantage and left them high and dry until a merger was done. With only 300m shares on issue, I reckon I could have gotten $2.50, which would have been a descent outcome.
Martin should walk. It's a joke he's on $2m salary.
Alpha
13-11-2020, 11:26 AM
Unless the take over comes. Haha. I am going to take a bit of a break from looking at Price as Mista has recommended.
Dlownz
13-11-2020, 11:29 AM
There's nothing good about this.
I blame Martin for everything.
If I were CEO I wouldn't have done the placement. It was stupid and unnecessary. The timing was terrible and they had enough liquidity. The problem was that they bought RugbyPass (which was a mistake) and went directly into broadband. They should have just done a partnership deal for both. This would of avoided doing a placement. All the placement has done is thrown holders like NZRU under the bus and created a toxic share registry.
As CEO, I would have stripped out all the costs, closed down OSB, done partnership deals with RugbyPass and either Vodafone or 2degrees for the broadband. I would have sold off or closed down Neon. I wouldn't have bought Lightbox either.
I would have focused 100% of my time on doing a merger and working with the ComCom and ministry of broadcasting. I would have used the bondholders to my advantage and left them high and dry until a merger was done. With only 300m shares on issue, I reckon I could have gotten $2.50, which would have been a descent outcome.
Martin should walk. It's a joke he's on $2m salary.
And that Ogg is why your not in charge.
Alpha
13-11-2020, 11:29 AM
They should just rebrand to SKY High
A lot of what you mentioned is decided by the Board, not the CEO. The CEO has input to the process but is not the sole decision maker in all things strategic. I'm sure the CEO is working with the cards he has been dealt. Some of which would have come from the Board, others being a carry-over from John Fellet and some of his own making. Any blame, in this instance, cannot be placed at the feet of one person. Solving significant business issues can be like trying to turn the QE2 around - they take time. In an organisation of this size, you wouldn't want a Board and CEO who react instantly to any external factors.
I blame Martin for everything.
LEMON
13-11-2020, 12:17 PM
If I remember right it was usually a Friday we would see a huge buy order right at the end of the day wheneverr sky saw increases since it's FYR20 then suddenly the price would drop come Monday arvo. Again only a buy order when we saw a price increase. Wonder if we will get one this afternoon come 4 pm
A lot of what you mentioned is decided by the Board, not the CEO. The CEO has input to the process but is not the sole decision maker in all things strategic. I'm sure the CEO is working with the cards he has been dealt. Some of which would have come from the Board, others being a carry-over from John Fellet and some of his own making. Any blame, in this instance, cannot be placed at the feet of one person. Solving significant business issues can be like trying to turn the QE2 around - they take time. In an organisation of this size, you wouldn't want a Board and CEO who react instantly to any external factors.
Who else is on the board, Handley, just lol. Blair who's disappeared into a mysterious role, just lol. Smith, the man with 100 directorship (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/one-man-97-jobs-no-problem/ICSXM42K5Q4BVBRU36OR27YECI/) , just lol. Paterson, who came and left, just lol. Bowman and Martin, both imports from the UK, just lol.
It's a joke. I can think of 3 people on this forum that could do a better job.
LEMON
13-11-2020, 12:19 PM
Also OGG you don't need to excuse yourself for selling shares you're not committed to anyone here. We all need to take responsibility for our self whether we like it or not. Good choice I think on your behalf
Also OGG you don't need to excuse yourself for selling shares you're not committed to anyone here. We all need to take responsibility for our self whether we like it or not. Good choice I think on your behalf
I'm just pissed a takeover hasn't happened.
If poor decisions have been made and, in your opinion, the Board is a "joke" then, QED, you cannot blame the CEO.
steveb
13-11-2020, 12:35 PM
Come on guys most boards are there to just rubber stamp decisions mad by a CEO.In some cases directors havn't got a clue about what is going on,and as long as they pick up an attendance fee it's all right with the world.
Come on guys most boards are there to just rubber stamp decisions mad by a CEO.In some cases directors havn't got a clue about what is going on,and as long as they pick up an attendance fee it's all right with the world.
Thanks Derek.
mistaTea
13-11-2020, 01:16 PM
Some very passionate views being shared - usually it's me sharing things like that!
In Phaedrus's post I think there is another implied message (he certainly did not explicitly cover it off).
And that message is this - the stock does not have any feelings about you. Therefore, you should not have any feelings about the stock.
When we start to have feelings (positive or negative) it begins to influence our thinking.
My positive feelings for the business have at times made me view the situation with rose tinted glasses. This has contributed to me making very stupid decisions like continuing to buy during a clear downtrend ("Wow, even cheaper! Look at what a bargain I am getting! I sure better buy up large (again) because this has got to be absolute rock bottom!" I was thinking this nonsense at $1.10 per share).
Equally, if you are feeling pissed off or aggrieved it could potentially lead you to make other decisions that could end up being harmful.
Personally, I think we need to start a petition to bring Phaedrus back out of retirement. Christ only knows we need him.
Having said that, another previous Sharetrader recently sent me some writings from winner69 from 2007 I think it was - very astute, so we are not completely alone.
Greekwatchdog
13-11-2020, 01:45 PM
New Super Trans Tasman Comp on the way after NZ Super.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/super-rugby-details-of-new-transtasman-super-rugby-competition-confirmed/CH5NYJ3DKZC43VKL27IKNTJZ3Y/
DownTownJr
13-11-2020, 02:35 PM
Pleased to see the SP still holding. After the last couple of months the SP quickly dropped back down. I guess I still could be talking too soon lol.
And well done OGG for cashing out some shares. Everyone needs to look at their risk own tolerance and of course impact on mental wellbeing.
mistaTea
13-11-2020, 11:36 PM
I see Nine Network has just released Stan SPORT - and have a deal with Rugby Australia for their debut.
Foxtel getting a bigger hiding than Sky NZ?
********
On-demand sports streaming offering to start in 2021 with rugby.
Nine today announced the launch of Stan Sport, a live and on-demand premium sport package to be offered as a bundle to Stan’s streaming customers, with the initial content through 2021 stemming from Nine’s new partnership with Rugby Australia.
The parties have reached an in principle commercial agreement between Nine and Rugby Australia, pending SANZAAR sign off. The three-year deal will include live free-to-air and ad-free subscription coverage and is worth approximately $100m in cash and contra. There is also a two-year option for Nine to extend.
Further to rugby union, Nine is progressing opportunities to invest in a range of additional exclusive sports rights, on either a pay or cross-platform basis, focusing on content aimed at driving its long-term subscriber growth and profitability objectives.
The launch of Stan Sport will enable Nine to deliver a “whole of television” approach to sports as it offers extensive live and on-demand coverage to Stan subscribers, as well as making select premium events available on Nine’s FTA television channels. The move will allow Nine to choose the appropriate platform for its various sports offering while also enabling our partners to fulfil their growth ambitions.
“The launch of Stan Sport is a bold expansion for Mike Sneesby and the team at Stan, to sit alongside our hugely successful Stan entertainment offering,” said Hugh Marks, Nine CEO. “We will bring all our collective expertise from decades of experience in live sport broadcasting to deliver the best possible outcomes for viewers, rights holders, and the growth ambitions of the sports we partner with.
“At Stan, we are focused on bringing Australians the best local, international and original programming, which has seen our audience reach significant scale. Today’s announcement will see us extend that offering through the launch of our live streaming capability, bringing live sport to Stan in 2021 and opening up a range of new programming opportunities. Our partnership with Rugby Australia is the perfect place to start this new business.”
Stan CEO Mike Sneesby said: “The team at Stan are excited by the possibilities for our business as we embark on this expansion into live sport. We are looking forward to expanding our partnership with our colleagues at Nine and building on their knowledge and experience over decades in this space.”
airedale
14-11-2020, 08:53 AM
Up 2 cents or about 1.5% for the week. Let us see what next week brings. It may be premature to expect the monthly chart to confirm this year, but as Percy would say SKT is well positioned.
mistaTea
14-11-2020, 10:28 AM
I saw Marko (IFT CEO) at Auckland airport yesterday. He was boarding a flight to Wellington while I was waiting for a flight to Queenstown.
He walked past me and I was sorely tempted to ask him just when exactly he planned to buy Sky.
I lost my nerve though (damn it all!), and it’s a pity because I am now absolutely certain he would have spilled his guts to me...
I saw Marko (IFT CEO) at Auckland airport yesterday. He was boarding a flight to Wellington while I was waiting for a flight to Queenstown.
He walked past me and I was sorely tempted to ask him just when exactly he planned to buy Sky.
I lost my nerve though (damn it all!), and it’s a pity because I am now absolutely certain he would have spilled his guts to me...
Me bumping into Marko.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xfGuYeC1KOs
Xenith
14-11-2020, 05:21 PM
Just a thought here.......
If a realestate agent pumped otahuhu and told me it was the next ponsonby and it would happen any day only to try and create buzz then he/she jumped ship and followed a new suburb before anything even happened and very early on in their commitment to the suburb (say..... 8 months), would I commend them and applaud their move or would I call them a charlatan and lose all interest in what they had to say? Everyone has the right to an opinion but don’t forget that everyone also has their own agenda.
Habits
14-11-2020, 08:06 PM
Am a sky subscriber for the first time in about 20 years, we ordered Sky Sport Now and bought a new TV with inbuilt sky app. Its good to be able to see the ABs play, even though they are losing to the Argies, without having to pay for heaps of other channels
Just a thought here.......
If a realestate agent pumped otahuhu and told me it was the next ponsonby and it would happen any day only to try and create buzz then he/she jumped ship and followed a new suburb before anything even happened and very early on in their commitment to the suburb (say..... 8 months), would I commend them and applaud their move or would I call them a charlatan and lose all interest in what they had to say? Everyone has the right to an opinion but don’t forget that everyone also has their own agenda.
Ponsonby was a slum before the 1990's. Only poor Maori and Pacific Islanders lived there. Rich white people created a buzz and the suburb got gentrified.
It's happening to Otahuhu now. So yeah, better buy some property there.
Sky dropped 90% from it's highs before I started posting here. That's like a real estate agent creating buzz after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2009.
Even with all my buzz talk the stock has barely moved. The stock is mostly held by institutional investors evaluating it's earnings. Unlike the many mining or tech/bio start ups on the ASX, Sky is a stock that you can't ramp on a forum. It doesn't have that specy nature about it like with other stocks - it's a survival story.
Most of my buzz talk is not "if" a takeover/merger happens, everyone knows it's happening. Sky already tried to merge with Vodafone. The chair gave clear comments at the AGM about consolidation activity in the industry. It's a question of "when", "who" and "how much". Obviously, I've seem to have gotten these 3 things wrong.
The answer may be "3 years", "2degrees" and "18c", which would suck and not be worth waiting for as a retail holder. I was hoping it would be "2 months", "ComCast" and "30c", that's pretty much been the extent of my buzz talk here.
My agenda is the same as everyone, get rich quick. I can't have all my cash tied up in this stock waiting for Marko or some old fart at Discovery to make move. The Maori and Pacific Islanders living in Ponsonby weren't going to wait around either. In fact, ironically, they couldn't make money as they had to sell first before the property value would go up.
Quantitative Easing
15-11-2020, 01:51 PM
Just a thought here.......
If a realestate agent pumped otahuhu and told me it was the next ponsonby and it would happen any day only to try and create buzz then he/she jumped ship and followed a new suburb before anything even happened and very early on in their commitment to the suburb (say..... 8 months), would I commend them and applaud their move or would I call them a charlatan and lose all interest in what they had to say? Everyone has the right to an opinion but don’t forget that everyone also has their own agenda.
I would say Manukau and Papatoetoe are better bets in the South than Otahuhu. Anyway most places on this map should be gentrified to some extent.: https://www.panuku.co.nz/project-map . Also i reckon Pakuranga(west) which is relatively cheap right now should go up with the eastern busway being completed.
DownTownJr
15-11-2020, 04:46 PM
Talked with my brother today, for some reason he has decided to put Sky back on in his house house. Told him to wait for broadband to be released and hopefully some cheaper package deals, as this was his main complaint of having to pay for content he does not want to watch. It has been 6 years since he has had Sky. Not sure why he has now decided to reconnect.
On another note. I wonder if Neon was a standalone service not linked in anyway to Sky what SP it would attract. I'm sure the Sheresies users would eat that up being the "next big thing"
Speaking about Shersies I saw a Sky thread on their FB page today from a couple of days ago. Seems they are now allowing SKT talk back on their FB group.
imarktu
15-11-2020, 05:00 PM
Speaking about Shersies I saw a Sky thread on their FB page today from a couple of days ago. Seems they are now allowing SKT talk back on their FB group.
Just to weigh in on this - before I deleted Facebook, I was part of this group.
My observation was that there were a lot of posts and comments around SKT that were very obviously designed to try and suck a few Sharesies "newbies" in to chucking some cash at it. The frequency of posts delcaring "TO THE MOON!!!" or some other r/wallstreetbets related meme was beyond a joke. The more it would get talked about, the more frequently it would appear at the top of the Sharesies group discussion, the more chance people may take a punt.
No surprise to me that they "banned" talk about SKT for a while. It remains to be seen (but not by me!) if they become more stringent with their moderation on that particular topic.
Dlownz
15-11-2020, 05:35 PM
Just to weigh in on this - before I deleted Facebook, I was part of this group.
My observation was that there were a lot of posts and comments around SKT that were very obviously designed to try and suck a few Sharesies "newbies" in to chucking some cash at it. The frequency of posts delcaring "TO THE MOON!!!" or some other r/wallstreetbets related meme was beyond a joke. The more it would get talked about, the more frequently it would appear at the top of the Sharesies group discussion, the more chance people may take a punt.
No surprise to me that they "banned" talk about SKT for a while. It remains to be seen (but not by me!) if they become more stringent with their moderation on that particular topic.
You mean the same similar talk going on here about instant takeovers we're imminent and such. The share price is about to take off its so low. Much of muchness the same. Facebook sharesies and sharetrader has some similarities. But taking sky off there page was a bit biased when cbd was promoted just as hard. Everyone has to do there own research no ones holding a gun to your head when you put a trade through.
Think we will just have to wait a week for osb news. Whether it can be sold or not.
If it's a yes that will add a little more value to share price. A no will see it go in the opposite direction. The savings sky are Tring to produce has to be commended. Covid has created them a good little problem and given them a little more time to make very neccesary changes.
Shareguy
16-11-2020, 02:05 PM
Had the sky technician here today replacing a box. Said CEO is excellent well respected. Staff have been trialling the new broadband for the last six weeks and is excellent very fast. Said has been very busy mainly because of the rugby. May have to buy some more.
Dlownz
16-11-2020, 02:38 PM
How long after the reevaluated guidence before we start getting share valuations from brokers. Or will everyone wait till the comcom decsion
I dont think it will go to the moon!
But maybe as far as a satellite?
Entrep
16-11-2020, 03:48 PM
I have noticed a few posts about Sky broadband supposedly being fast on different mediums. "Fast" compared between ISPs nowadays with fibre is meaningless. Support is what matters I am not sure how that will work with Sky not being a fully fledged ISP (let's hope their systems and billing integration is good).
I was also pretty shocked it appeared Ogg truly believed there would be a takeover... For me the language was clearly having a laugh (I thought we all were).
Very dangerous for those who got sucked in.
Very dangerous for those who got sucked in.
These people will just have to settle for a meager 2 bagger.
Dlownz
16-11-2020, 04:02 PM
I have noticed a few posts about Sky broadband supposedly being fast on different mediums. "Fast" compared between ISPs nowadays with fibre is meaningless. Support is what matters I am not sure how that will work with Sky not being a fully fledged ISP (let's hope their systems and billing integration is good).
I was also pretty shocked it appeared Ogg truly believed there would be a takeover... For me the language was clearly having a laugh (I thought we all were).
Very dangerous for those who got sucked in.
If sky were to say launch there broadband with Google WiFi as the modem/router then yes it would be faster compared to everyday providers. The modem is the most important thing to delivering good Internet. Most providers provide crap.
airedale
16-11-2020, 04:45 PM
Even a meagre 2 bagger would double most punters money in a year.
mistaTea
18-11-2020, 09:25 AM
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/hulu-raising-price-of-live-tv-plan-bundle-december-backlash-2020-11?r=US&IR=T
https://i.imgur.com/xBtA9L7.jpg
mistaTea
18-11-2020, 11:21 AM
https://i.imgur.com/xBtA9L7.jpg
I’ve always thought of Sky TV as a...bundle of joy!
I’ve always thought of Sky TV as a...bundle of joy!
https://www.afr.com/chanticleer/tectonic-shift-in-mobile-market-happening-under-accc-s-nose-20201117-p56fc9
mistaTea
18-11-2020, 12:30 PM
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0021/228342/Sky-Cross-submission-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-12-November-2020.pdf
Some interesting comments from Sky.
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0021/228342/Sky-Cross-submission-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-12-November-2020.pdf
Some interesting comments from Sky.
Just lol at having to go through all this bull sh*t to sell some "old trucks". Jesus Christ, just dump them on the side of the road.
What's next, the company's coffee machine? Better call the ComCom to get the all clear first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
mistaTea
18-11-2020, 01:30 PM
Just lol at having to go through all this bull sh*t to sell some "old trucks". Jesus Christ, just dump them on the side of the road.
What's next, the company's coffee machine? Better call the ComCom to get the all clear first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Yeah, def a lot of rigmarole. I expect all of the steps being taken are just a formality.
Those two submissions that were written against the deal look like something a Turd Former would write to be frank.
Those two submissions that were written against the deal look like something a Turd Former would write to be frank.
They are so informal in their language which is just wrong.
However justice should be blind if their points are conveyed.
Getty
19-11-2020, 07:59 AM
Just lol at having to go through all this bull sh*t to sell some "old trucks". Jesus Christ, just dump them on the side of the road.
What's next, the company's coffee machine? Better call the ComCom to get the all clear first.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Just dump them on the side of the road... hilarious, keep 'em coming.
Thats the pragmatic decision making many companies need.
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 08:33 AM
Just dump them on the side of the road... hilarious, keep 'em coming.
Thats the pragmatic decision making many companies need.
Yes that was a great clanger from Ogg!
If comcom do block the deal, they should just wind the OSB business down and sell the trucks on Trademe.
Get a deal with the other providers to do the sport filming and hey presto! Sky still avoid the $50M Capex.
All that will change is that NEP won’t inherit 6 old trucks that look like something you would find in Mad Max...
https://vocuscommunications.gcs-web.com/static-files/276edbb9-4a61-4373-be81-8e3737f8f70c
https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU
"The Board considers that there are now significant opportunities for organic growth and market consolidation across all market segments that will be better realised if Vocus New Zealand is an independent entity"
From my understanding the Vocus listing will be separate to the main group listing on the ASX as it's Vocus NZ.
It's very possible it could merge with Sky next year and then be sold off from the Vocus Australian parent company. Vocus Australia was going to sell off their NZ assets back in 2017.
This is looking very interesting. Could unlock huge value here.
Commence takeover conspiracy posting...
Timing seems to coincide with the maturity of the Sky NZX bonds.
It's a perfect fit. Orcon/Slingshot/Stuff fibre and Sky would work well together. They can tap into Sky's 1m customers.
I don't see a huge takeover bid happening though. Just a good merger that would deliver a decent premium to Sky over the long term.
The question is, would Orcon/Slingshot/and Stuff branding all merge into Sky?
Sky has stadium and rugby naming rights next year, it's a better and well known brand in NZ. This would be a huge jump start to Sky broadband as it can tap into all of the existing Orcon/Slingshot/and Stuff customers.
Look how crap all these brands are. Totally dead as they barely advertise anymore.
https://www.orcon.net.nz/
https://www.slingshot.co.nz/
https://stuff-fibre.co.nz/
Imagine all these companies combined and then launched under the Sky branding. Then spamming Sky TV customers with TV ads 24/7.
Vocus Australia is happy because they want out of the NZ market.
Seems like the perfect merger.
ComCom would love this as well. Opens up more competition in NZ. Consolidates the smaller competitors. Should lower prices.
Further options down the road to merge with 2degrees.
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 12:33 PM
Look how crap all these brands are. Totally dead as they barely advertise anymore.
https://www.orcon.net.nz/
https://www.slingshot.co.nz/
https://stuff-fibre.co.nz/
Imagine all these companies combined and then launched under the Sky branding. Then spamming Sky TV customers with TV ads 24/7.
Vocus Australia is happy because they want out of the NZ market.
Seems like the perfect merger.
A merger would be unfair to Sky shareholders. Vocus shares will list at a premium no doubt, and Sky would be trying to merge with shares that are way undervalued imo.
I don’t see the value when we are in advanced stages of releasing our own broadband offer and have ~1M customers to market to right away. That is more likely to create highest long term value to Sky shareholders than trying to do mergers or acquisitions using our piddly equity as currency.
But this latest conspiracy theory is sure to keep the forum humming along quite nicely! It got awfully quiet there for a second!
A merger would be unfair to Sky shareholders. Vocus shares will list at a premium no doubt, and Sky would be trying to merge with shares that are way undervalued imo.
I don’t see the value when we are in advanced stages of releasing our own broadband offer and have ~1M customers to market to right away. That is more likely to create highest long term value to Sky shareholders than trying to do mergers or acquisitions using our piddly equity as currency.
But this latest conspiracy theory is sure to keep the forum humming along quite nicely! It got awfully quiet there for a second!
lol.
This latest conspiracy theory isn't exactly the best outcome for long sufferings shareholders with high averages. Executives, Bankers, Insiders, Brokers, Lawyers, Accountants, will do well out of this though.
This merger makes sense. Sky (and Vocus) have to do this to survive.
It will add some value to Sky, maybe 20c-25c. Unless Discovery or ComCast comes in and makes a bid.
DownTownJr
19-11-2020, 12:44 PM
Our god has spoken. OGG + Vocus + Merger conspiracy = time to buy more shares.
On a serious note I also am keen to see Sky's long term plan play out, but either way the future is looking bright here.
Pleased that the current SP seems to be holding for the most part, which surprised me tbh, not that I don't see value just that with how the last few months has been going with this stock and all.
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 12:53 PM
lol.
This latest conspiracy theory isn't exactly the best outcome for long sufferings shareholders with high averages.
The latest bs story would be unfair to all shareholders. Even if you purchased shares @12c, and the business was actually 'worth' 25c-30c...using equity valued at 17c to merge with Vocus (that will be trading at a much more generous PE) makes no sense to an investor. Some traders looking for a quick exit would be happy to use undervalued currency for a quick buck - but an investor will want the best long term outcome that generates the best value.
Nobody was willing to purchase Vocus before because the asking price was ridiculous. One of the telco CEO's (was it Moutter?) even said that anyone buying Vocus for anywhere near the asking price (~$500M) would have to have 'rocks in their head'.
Sky management would have to have rocks in their head to even think about doing a transaction like this.
Our god has spoken. OGG + Vocus + Merger conspiracy = time to buy more shares.
On a serious note I also am keen to see Sky's long term plan play out, but either way the future is looking bright here.
Pleased that the current SP seems to be holding for the most part, which surprised me tbh, not that I don't see value just that with how the last few months has been going with this stock and all.
Shareholders who buy/accumulate and wait over the next 12-18 months for a mega merger to playout could be handsomely rewarded.
I dunno if I can wait that long though as I want to get rich quick...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8QuSuKcrAeU
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 12:57 PM
Nobody was willing to purchase Vocus before because the asking price was ridiculous. One of the telco CEO's (was it Moutter?) even said that anyone buying Vocus for anywhere near the asking price (~$500M) would have to have 'rocks in their head'.
Sky management would have to have rocks in their head to even think about doing a transaction like this.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vocus-again-tipped-to-offload-nz-assets/BY4SEBRFA3UHACBKCJGI6OD6CE/
It was Trustpower CEO.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vocus-again-tipped-to-offload-nz-assets/BY4SEBRFA3UHACBKCJGI6OD6CE/
It was Trustpower CEO.
Infratil?
My conspiracy radar is going off the charts!
The latest bs story would be unfair to all shareholders.
Sky shareholders have been thrown under the bus. The word "fair" has lost all meaning.
The lawyers specialising in merger/acquisitions are calling the shots now.
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 01:12 PM
Sky shareholders have been thrown under the bus. The word "fair" has lost all meaning.
The lawyers specialising in merger/acquisitions are calling the shots now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
youtube
Just chuck another half a mill in and average down some more.
Getty
19-11-2020, 01:18 PM
Under the bus, or under the OSB trucks?
Under the bus, or under the OSB trucks?
The Sky TV bus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TVMdp2p4P40
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 01:57 PM
The Sky TV bus.
I'm only going to entertain your bullsh1t stories when they conclude that I walk away with...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKKHSAE1gIs
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 03:32 PM
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/363552/335473.pdf
Marty Boy still buying on market.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/363552/335473.pdf
Marty Boy still buying on market.
Using his $2m salary to buy up the stock and then sell it all in a takeover.
DownTownJr
19-11-2020, 03:52 PM
Good old Martin. I know it's a small pacle, but it helps me feel better seeing people within the company buying.
mistaTea
19-11-2020, 03:55 PM
Good old Martin. I know it's a small pacle, but it helps me feel better seeing people within the company buying.
Agreed.
Martin tends to get nailed no matter what he does. If he doesn’t buy shares he is just a hired gun with no vested interest in the business or alignment with shareholders.
If he does buy then it’s no big deal because he purchased stuff all.
I see it as a positive that he keeps buying more shares over time.
Ogg doesn’t like it because it keeps pouring cold water on his ‘imminent takeover’ fiction.
Ogg doesn’t like it because it keeps pouring cold water on his ‘imminent takeover’ fiction.
Yep... Everytime I see it happen I know another month of my life is gone.
Just adding another comment here so I don't have to keep re-reading the previous comment as its a tad depressing in the lead-up to the weekend. So take no news as good news and have a good w/e all!
How long have Vocus's Aussie owners had the Vocus business on the block for being hocked off ? ;)
Any other possible SKT takeover formulations out there to throw into the mix ? ;)
Dlownz
21-11-2020, 08:57 AM
There's no take overs coming. Let's just never mention it again. On to the comcom decsion which is Monday isn't it?
Will this create another little jump as it gives a little more certainty on direction and savings. The share price has been holding quite well with the exception of the last couple if days but quite a few company's came back down too.
Cash_Lion
22-11-2020, 11:20 PM
Martin is dollar cost averaging which is smart? Don't see the problem with small transactions
Dlownz
23-11-2020, 09:30 AM
When the comcom announcement
Quantitative Easing
23-11-2020, 11:40 AM
When the comcom announcement
Interesting to see if Spark lobbying has had an affect this time. 'Anonymous' submissions, sponsoring articles...
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 12:22 PM
Some media speculation that Sky TV could attempt to head off a Vocus IPO by purchasing the business.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-suitor-who-could-head-off-vocus-ipo/E3JGAIA3UWXJ7IWDFRVV7RQXDE/
Greekwatchdog
23-11-2020, 12:40 PM
Its a good fit
Some media speculation that Sky TV could attempt to head off a Vocus IPO by purchasing the business.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-suitor-who-could-head-off-vocus-ipo/E3JGAIA3UWXJ7IWDFRVV7RQXDE/
https://i.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/newsfeed/000/640/962/d91.gif
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 12:45 PM
Its a good fit
Would be an excellent fit.
It would all be a matter of how much someone (*cough* SKY! *cough*) would have to pay?
If Vocus expect too much then it would not make a great investment and Sky would be better off continuing with their current Broadband plans. Sky Broadband launch is set to happen within the next few weeks.
However, for a reasonable price...those two hundred odd thousand existing, low churn customers look damn tasty to me...
Alpha
23-11-2020, 12:47 PM
Would be a great way to start off the broadband move,.
Would be an excellent fit.
It would all be a matter of how much someone (*cough* SKY! *cough*) would have to pay?
If Vocus expect too much then it would not make a great investment and Sky would be better off continuing with their current Broadband plans. Sky Broadband launch is set to happen within the next few weeks.
However, for a reasonable price...those two hundred odd thousand existing, low churn customers look damn tasty to me...
Sky is supposed to be taken over, not do the taking over.
Vocus NZ ebita is ~$80m I think. Should be valued at $200m tops but vendors likely want $500m+!!!
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 12:53 PM
Sky is supposed to be taken over, not do the taking over.
Vocus NZ ebita is ~$80m I think. Should be valued at $200m tops but vendors likely want $500m+!!!
What's it worth? Two takesSo what is Vocus' NZ operation worth?
A Jarden note issued after the IPO was confirmed, says, "Given the mix of retail and enterprise operations, we value Vocus NZ on a 6.0x FY2021 estimated ebitda
multiple, which implies a total valuation of A$416m (or A$0.66/share).
But the wealth manager sees a focus on Vocus' enterprise and wholesale assets. That leads it to the following kicker:
"Given the extensive fibre assets, we suspect the company will seek to benchmark the business against fibre operators globally, who trade on an average multiple of around 9.5x.
"Applying this multiple to the Vocus NZ ebitda results in a valuation of around A$660m or A$1.05/share - 40 per cent more than our valuation for the business."
But although Jarden finds that too heady, it notes a valuation at that level would be "broadly consistent with the Spark NZ trading multiple of around 9x."
What's it worth? Two takes
So what is Vocus' NZ operation worth?
A Jarden note issued after the IPO was confirmed, says, "Given the mix of retail and enterprise operations, we value Vocus NZ on a 6.0x FY2021 estimated ebitda
multiple, which implies a total valuation of A$416m (or A$0.66/share).
But the wealth manager sees a focus on Vocus' enterprise and wholesale assets. That leads it to the following kicker:
"Given the extensive fibre assets, we suspect the company will seek to benchmark the business against fibre operators globally, who trade on an average multiple of around 9.5x.
"Applying this multiple to the Vocus NZ ebitda results in a valuation of around A$660m or A$1.05/share - 40 per cent more than our valuation for the business."
But although Jarden finds that too heady, it notes a valuation at that level would be "broadly consistent with the Spark NZ trading multiple of around 9x."
A$416m? Just cage...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Vocus NZ is worth $200m, tops.
The Vocus brands are crap.
Everyone knows Orcon and Slingshot are so 2000's. It's deader than Sky but at least Sky has a strong cashcow satellite base that will continue to deliver over the medium term.
Terrible move if Sky loads up on debt and buys them out.
airedale
23-11-2020, 01:16 PM
To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 01:20 PM
To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.
Why?
Taking over Vocus would rocket sky’s EBITDA to $180M over night.
Provided the asking price was not outrageous, the banks would lend for an investment like this. With interest rates so low - a deal could be done.
My guess is that there's no appetite for a Vocus NZ IPO, especially if the vendors are selling down 100%. No way are they going to get 9x EBITA.
A Sky/Vocus NZ merger is a good idea but only if it's 1:1 or perhaps a small cash amount to vendors of approx ~$150m or so. ie, the new merged company would have a small amount of debt.
Later on, a merger with 2dgrees would be idea to create a massive media company.
Why?
Taking over Vocus would rocket sky’s EBITDA to $180M over night.
Provided the asking price was not outrageous, the banks would lend for an investment like this. With interest rates so low - a deal could be done.
It's a good idea, at the right price.
Vocus vendors are dreaming though. They're in La La La La Land.
To take over Vocus raises the spectre of another SKY capital raising.
Could you imagine?
NZRU already been run over by the Sky bus. Now they're going to piss on their corpses.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 01:49 PM
Could you imagine?
NZRU already been run over by the Sky bus. Now they're going to piss on their corpses.
Why on earth are you so aggressively anti now?
I can’t possibly imagine what’s changed!
Who on earth are you so aggressively anti now?
I can’t possibly imagine what’s changed!
Like what Dlownz said, the takeover isn't happening.
Do you have another $1.5m for the inevitable 2.83 for 1 placement for Vocus?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Morningside update on Vocus NZ IPO:
Vocus Decides to Free Kiwi
"The only surprise about Vocus' decision to spin off its New Zealand unit via an initial public offering, or IPO, is that it has taken so long. The business has been on the sale block since October 2017 and the current management has made it clear it is noncore to the group.
The fundamentals of the kiwi unit are supportive of an IPO. It is on track to deliver EBITDA CAGR of almost 5% to our NZD 71 million forecast in fiscal 2021, from fiscal 2018, and margins have consistently been around 16.6%. The external environment is also conducive. There is insatiable investor appetite for IPOs, especially of companies with any whiff of technology to their business, or are catering to the COVID-19-induced demand for "Doing Things at Home." As a key broadband provider in New Zealand with an extensive fibre network, narrow-moat-rated Vocus has a cogent selling point. The steady earnings profile and the conservative capital structure (we estimate net debt/EBITDA of around 1.5) should also ensure a reasonable payout, adding a further "yield" angle to the investment proposition.
All proceeds from the IPO are likely to go to reducing Vocus' AUD 979 million net debt. We believe management prefers to divest 100% of its interest. The implied equity value of the New Zealand unit in our unchanged AUD 3.50 fair value estimate for Vocus is AUD 0.60 per share, or AUD 374 million (NZD 393 million). That equates to 7.1 times our forecast EBITDA for the Kiwi unit, and assumes 1.5 net debt/EBITDA. Every incremental 1 times EBITDA multiple achieved in the IPO, above the 7.1 currently implied in our modelling, would lift our Vocus fair value estimate by AUD 0.10 per share.
We look forward to more details on the IPO which is expected to be complete by June 2021. But the decision on the New Zealand unit is further evidence Vocus is well and truly past the "fix and repair" stage, and is on the "shed and grow" phase of its journey, with network services clearly the core unit longer-term."
So MoringStar saying Vocus NZ is worth $500m.
Does Sky use it's bank draw down and offer $200m cash and then do a 1:1 placement
3.4B shares on issue. Enterprise value at 16c = $744m. Ebita $180m.
Trilogy International Partners (AKA 2degress) is almost trading negative equality. But ball park figure assuming debt, 2degress is worth about USD$500m.
Bolt that onto the new entity and we're talking a $1.4B enterprise value with $350m EBITA, roughly 5x multiple.
Spark at $8.3B and Vodafone around $3.5B.
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 02:49 PM
Upadate to the article. Previously it just said that Sky had been approached for comment.
*********************************
Stubbs sees potential for the same thing happening with Vocus's NZ operation.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Sky TV was having a good look at it," he says.
"It would be a big ask and they have tried something like that in the past with Vodafone, but it could be done."
Sky declined to comment.
*************************
Usually this would have Ogg chomping at the bit! What on earth has changed mate?!?!
Upadate to the article. Previously it just said that Sky had been approached for comment.
*********************************
Stubbs sees potential for the same thing happening with Vocus's NZ operation.
"I wouldn't be surprised if Sky TV was having a good look at it," he says.
"It would be a big ask and they have tried something like that in the past with Vodafone, but it could be done."
Sky declined to comment.
*************************
Usually this would have Ogg chomping at the bit! What on earth has changed mate?!?!
Sky doing the chomping now not me...
DownTownJr
23-11-2020, 03:00 PM
Finally have reception and thought I would check in on this thread and wow, OGG was right except it's SKY wanting to takeover a company lol. I'm all for it if the price is right and hey, I do have trust in Martin.
On another note. No comcom result announcement or have I just missed something?
Finally have reception and thought I would check in on this thread and wow, OGG was right except it's SKY wanting to takeover a company lol. I'm all for it if the price is right and hey, I do have trust in Martin.
On another note. No comcom result announcement or have I just missed something?
I hope Ogg's call on Vocus is right, if a deal could be done at the right price, it'd be good for the SKT SP.
But I reckon Stubbs is trying to will it to happen by talking about it.
Just like most of do here on this forum.
In fact, he probably put connected the dots by reading this thread.
The media has cottoned on to the fact that Sky speculation gets clicks and is exciting for readers.
If he'd said that on NBR he might have been reported.
I hope Ogg's call on Vocus is right, if a deal could be done at the right price, it'd be good for the SKT SP.
But I reckon Stubbs is trying to will it to happen by talking about it.
Just like most of do here on this forum.
In fact, he probably put connected the dots by reading this thread.
The media has cottoned on to the fact that Sky speculation gets clicks and is exciting for readers.
If he'd said that on NBR he might have been reported.
It's simple, they've floated the idea (excuse the pun) of an IPO but they're wanting the same EBITA multiple as Spark and Vodafone, which is unlikely, even in this hot market.
The business to me is likely on the down run, and suffered from under investment. It should be valued on a 3x multiple, like Sky.
However, if Sky can get it on a 5x EBITA, it might be a good deal but only if they can get the banks onboard and do an LBO type deal. It would be terrible if Sky did another placement.
The fact that the vendors only want a 100% sell down and it's been on the blocks since 2017 just reeks of desperation.
Sky is in a strong position here. Once it's cleared the bonds next March, it will have no debt.
With a combined $180m EBITA, it might be able to convince a consortium of banks to go 3 X EBITA debt ratio, ie issue a huge $540m in debt.
It's risky but it could work.
Won't be any dividends though but no placement.
It's simple, they've floated the idea (excuse the pun) of an IPO but they're wanting the same EBITA multiple as Spark and Vodafone, which is unlikely, even in this hot market.
The business to me is likely on the down run, and suffered from under investment. It should be valued on a 3x multiple, like Sky.
However, if Sky can get it on a 5x EBITA, it might be a good deal but only if they can get the banks onboard and do an LBO type deal. It would be terrible if Sky did another placement.
The fact that the vendors only want a 100% sell down and it's been on the blocks since 2017 just reeks of desperation.
Your arguments are sound, and I don't want to pour cold water over the merits of such a deal. The only thing that doesn't stack-up to me is the timing.
You see, Sky would have had ample opportunity to consider such a deal, especially of Vocus has been wanting to spin-off its NZ operation for a while.
So why did they go ahead and do a deal to launch a broadband product as a virtual ISP if acquiring Vocus NZ was of interest?
Also, let's not forget our friend at Black Crane in HK who's pushing the Chorus tie-up.
I can see why a better multiple could change everything but I couldn't imagine Sky would offer Vocus a better deal for their NZ assets then what they could get through an IPO.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong.
Your arguments are sound, and I don't want to pour cold water over the merits of such a deal. The only thing that doesn't stack-up to me is the timing.
You see, Sky would have had ample opportunity to consider such a deal, especially of Vocus has been wanting to spin-off its NZ operation for a while.
So why did they go ahead and do a deal to launch a broadband product as a virtual ISP if acquiring Vocus NZ was of interest?
Also, let's not forget our friend at Black Crane in HK who's pushing the Chorus tie-up.
I can see why a better multiple could change everything but I couldn't imagine Sky would offer Vocus a better deal for their NZ assets then what they could get through an IPO.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong.
I really don't know what's been going on over the last few years. Seems like everyone has been screwing around.
But Covid has now changed the media landscape. Everyone has been kicked up the butt. Time to do deals. Like when you're playing monopoly and all the properties have been bought, time to trade!
I really don't know what's been going on over the last few years. Seems like everyone has been screwing around.
But Covid has now changed the media landscape. Everyone has been kicked up the butt. Time to do deals. Like when you're playing monopoly and all the properties have been bought, time to trade!
Covid really has put a question mark over all previous plans so everything should be back on the table.
If they could do a deal it'd really renew market interest in Sky and give them some leverage with Chorus is they haven't fully signed off on a deal.
http://gph.is/2bIcFWK
(Sorry, got no idea on how to embed a gif).
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 04:32 PM
I can see why a better multiple could change everything but I couldn't imagine Sky would offer Vocus a better deal for their NZ assets then what they could get through an IPO.
I genuinely hope I'm wrong.
Yeah I agree with this sentiment. Vocus want too high a price for the NZ assets, hence no sale by now even though the business has been on the block for ages.
They obviously feel that they can get a better valuation by IPO. So that does pour some cold water on a Sky TV tie up because Sky would only be able to get finance for a purchase price based on a much more reasonable EBITDA multiple.
And why would Vocus sell to Sky for a lower price than they could get by IPO?
It would be fantastic if Sky could grab Vocus NZ for a fair price, but definitely not something anyone should get too exited about at this stage.
Yeah I agree with this sentiment. Vocus want too high a price for the NZ assets, hence no sale by now even though the business has been on the block for ages.
They obviously feel that they can get a better valuation by IPO. So that does pour some cold water on a Sky TV tie up because Sky would only be able to get finance for a purchase price based on a much more reasonable EBITDA multiple.
And why would Vocus sell to Sky for a lower price than they could get by IPO?
It would be fantastic if Sky could grab Vocus NZ for a fair price, but definitely not something anyone should get too exited about at this stage.
There's a lot of good news to come from Sky over the coming 12 months so whilst an acquisition of Vocus NZ would be nice at a right price I don't think it's going to stop the share price from moving in the right direction.
Dlownz
23-11-2020, 04:45 PM
There's no need for sky to try to do any form of takeover at this stage.
1. They can't afford it
2 the share price is still shot to crap do no good will come of a capital raise
3. The customer base they want to attack is there existing base. So looking after existing customers.
4. Then start poaching customers from spark, Vodafone, vocus etc. Without having to needlessly fork out 500mil for a company.
It may be a slow process and I'm not sure what there aim is for number of broadband customers but I think a slower approach is better than a take over approach
Yeah I agree with this sentiment. Vocus want too high a price for the NZ assets, hence no sale by now even though the business has been on the block for ages.
They obviously feel that they can get a better valuation by IPO. So that does pour some cold water on a Sky TV tie up because Sky would only be able to get finance for a purchase price based on a much more reasonable EBITDA multiple.
And why would Vocus sell to Sky for a lower price than they could get by IPO?
It would be fantastic if Sky could grab Vocus NZ for a fair price, but definitely not something anyone should get too exited about at this stage.
Maybe let the vendors do the IPO then the next day do a merger?
Alpha
23-11-2020, 04:57 PM
Where is the COMCOM announcement?
I'm about to make a complaint.
Where is the COMCOM announcement?
It's government agency. Just lol if you expect it on time.
Selling the vans is a goer but there could be an issue with the 10 year NEP agreement. All of the details were withheld though. Might have to change it to 5 years or something like that.
Alpha
23-11-2020, 05:03 PM
Bloody Gov
mistaTea
23-11-2020, 05:05 PM
Bloody Gov
Stuffing Queen Cindy...
mylovelyday
23-11-2020, 05:12 PM
ASX $0.16 line was suddently wiped out but nzx price doesn't have obvious change. someone knows something that we don't?
ASX $0.16 line was suddently wiped out but nzx price doesn't have obvious change. someone knows something that we don't?
That's just me picking up some more @ .16 – following Martin's lead.
mylovelyday
23-11-2020, 05:25 PM
getting back to 0.155 again, interesting...
Greekwatchdog
23-11-2020, 05:27 PM
Now .165 aud
Dlownz
23-11-2020, 09:42 PM
It would be nice to get sky back to a position where it sells in. .5 lots rather than. .1. Then 1 cent lots again.
Alpha
23-11-2020, 10:40 PM
When does this happen? I’ve been trying to find this out?
mistaTea
24-11-2020, 09:02 AM
There's no need for sky to try to do any form of takeover at this stage.
1. They can't afford it
2 the share price is still shot to crap do no good will come of a capital raise
3. The customer base they want to attack is there existing base. So looking after existing customers.
4. Then start poaching customers from spark, Vodafone, vocus etc. Without having to needlessly fork out 500mil for a company.
It may be a slow process and I'm not sure what there aim is for number of broadband customers but I think a slower approach is better than a take over approach
Agree with most of this.
If the media reports are true then Vocus are not interested in selling the NZ assets for less than $400M (in fact, it seems they may be expecting closer to $500M which is obscene).
Buying Vocus NZ only makes sense if the price is right, and I think Sky will be very cautious.
Let's say Vocus would skip the IPO and sell to Sky for the lower range reported ($400M). Well, for that kind of money would Sky not be better off taking a pass on Vocus and just carrying on with their own broadband plans? Could they get to 225K customers (bearing in mind they have ~1M existing customers to market to) for a damn sight less than $400M?
Barriers to entry are very low now.
Dlownz
24-11-2020, 09:16 AM
Agree with most of this.
If the media reports are true then Vocus are not interested in selling the NZ assets for less than $400M (in fact, it seems they may be expecting closer to $500M which is obscene).
Buying Vocus NZ only makes sense if the price is right, and I think Sky will be very cautious.
Let's say Vocus would skip the IPO and sell to Sky for the lower range reported ($400M). Well, for that kind of money would Sky not be better off taking a pass on Vocus and just carrying on with their own broadband plans? Could they get to 225K customers (bearing in mind they have ~1M existing customers to market to) for a damn sight less than $400M?
Barriers to entry are very low now.
Sky could get there on there own without having to fork out money. I won't be a customer of vocus once sky launches broadband. Neither will a few people I set up on power and broadband as they have sky. If the prices is right they will all be changing. That's 3 customers right there.
Agree with most of this.
If the media reports are true then Vocus are not interested in selling the NZ assets for less than $400M (in fact, it seems they may be expecting closer to $500M which is obscene).
Buying Vocus NZ only makes sense if the price is right, and I think Sky will be very cautious.
Let's say Vocus would skip the IPO and sell to Sky for the lower range reported ($400M). Well, for that kind of money would Sky not be better off taking a pass on Vocus and just carrying on with their own broadband plans? Could they get to 225K customers (bearing in mind they have ~1M existing customers to market to) for a damn sight less than $400M?
Barriers to entry are very low now.
Yeah, I'm beginning to think Sky is better off not taking them over, unless they can get it cheap, which is already been ruled out.
It's possible after 2 years, Vocus could do an "Intueri" type collapse and then Sky could come in and buy them up cheap for sub $100m.
Sky should quite easily get 100k broadband subs within 2 years as they convert the easy pickings. After that it will be an up hill battle as the market is so competitive.
Habits
24-11-2020, 01:19 PM
When does this happen? I’ve been trying to find this out?
Nzx
.1 up to 20 cents then .5 cents up to 50 cents (2.5 percent steps)
Getting closer ... It may mean the SP will increase/fall quicker where a bidder /seller wants to be top of queue or needing the money
Asx
0.1 to 10 cents then 0.5 up to 2 bucks
mistaTea
24-11-2020, 02:31 PM
https://www.sky.co.nz/results?q=broadband
Access denied to the Help, T&C's and Registration pages...but they are all there ready for release.
I reckon Sky Broadband will be launched within a fortnight. Three weeks from now at the absolute latest.
Alpha
24-11-2020, 05:18 PM
Just spoke to Comcom and there is a delay. They couldn’t tell me much but we will see tomorrow before the market opens apparently. Wonder why or what has caused the delay
mistaTea
24-11-2020, 05:31 PM
Just spoke to Comcom and there is a delay. They couldn’t tell me much but we will see tomorrow before the market opens apparently. Wonder why or what has caused the delay
That sounds ominous?
Alpha
24-11-2020, 06:45 PM
Not sure the person basically said these things take time and some time due to nature of M&A’s there can be delays.
I thought this was basically a done deal but guess we will have to wait a bit long for the answer
mistaTea
24-11-2020, 07:07 PM
Not sure the person basically said these things take time and some time due to nature of M&A’s there can be delays.
I thought this was basically a done deal but guess we will have to wait a bit long for the answer
It’s probably nothing. These things seldom run on time.
Looks like they will make an announcement first thing tomorrow morning. Let’s hope it is good news!
airedale
25-11-2020, 10:06 AM
Fat Prophets speculate that Vocus could raise "well over $298 million" which is the carrying value of its intangible assets, from the IPO.
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 10:33 AM
They couldn’t tell me much but we will see tomorrow before the market opens apparently.
Well, that turned out to be bs.
Well, that turned out to be bs.
Government agency, never on time.
Alpha
25-11-2020, 11:18 AM
Again bloody gov. The person 100 percent said tomorrow. Tempt to call up again and have a go. But what will that achieve so I guess we just got to wait
mylovelyday
25-11-2020, 12:05 PM
called yesterday was told the same thing 'the information on comcom website will be updated over night or tomorrow morning', called again this morning was reasuared it would happen today just takes time to upload information, lol
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 12:12 PM
called yesterday was told the same thing 'the information on comcom website will be updated over night or tomorrow morning', called again this morning was reasuared it would happen today just takes time to upload information, lol
Yeah, they must have dial up being a govt department. Very slow upload speeds.
Maybe they can get Sky Broadband when it's released!
Alpha
25-11-2020, 12:43 PM
Ha your making me laugh about the dial up. I had fish and chips the other night and while trying to pay on the eftpos terminal the phone rang. To which the lady behind the counter said I would have to redo as the phone cuts the dial up. I can’t remember the last time that has happened must be tough times. Will have to refer them to Sky as surely this would piss a few people of and as you can imagine the phone rings a lot around dinner time at a fish and chip shop.
The buy / sell ratio is looking good on the ASX.
121 buyers for 7,654,917 shares for
61 sellers for 2,896,313 shares
It's been sitting between 0.16 - 0.165.
Bring on the good news!
Can't wait to watch how quickly the SP starts rising from hereon.
https://www.sky.co.nz/results?q=broadband
Access denied to the Help, T&C's and Registration pages...but they are all there ready for release.
I reckon Sky Broadband will be launched within a fortnight. Three weeks from now at the absolute latest.
https://www.sky.co.nz/broadband?inheritRedirect=true
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 05:56 PM
https://www.sky.co.nz/broadband?inheritRedirect=true
You know all the right ways to flirt with me.
Alpha
25-11-2020, 06:14 PM
Did you see when it initially loads you can see who “ wrote”the page.
Alexis Zhang
Darryl champher
... Nguyen
Thought about tracking these people down and get the inside scoop
Ogg did ever go to that random persons house
Getty
25-11-2020, 07:03 PM
Ha your making me laugh about the dial up. I had fish and chips the other night and while trying to pay on the eftpos terminal the phone rang. To which the lady behind the counter said I would have to redo as the phone cuts the dial up. I can’t remember the last time that has happened must be tough times. Will have to refer them to Sky as surely this would piss a few people of and as you can imagine the phone rings a lot around dinner time at a fish and chip shop.
Whats really happening, is that she/they have unplugged it from the authorised merchantl bank connection, and diverting to credit a private account.
We no pay tax huh?
Alpha
25-11-2020, 07:07 PM
Arh they did have a sign saying prefer cash. Was tempt to ask if I get a discount
Getty
25-11-2020, 07:10 PM
Wai Pei huh?
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 07:40 PM
https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/nep-broadcast-services-new-zealand-limited-and-sky-network-television-limited?target=timeline
Those lying bastards. The decision has been pushed out to 19 Feb!!
Alpha
25-11-2020, 07:43 PM
What the serious f. Some delay
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 07:44 PM
What the serious f. Some delay
Long process just to sell a few trucks that probably struggle to pass a WOF these days.
Getty
25-11-2020, 07:50 PM
Ogg had it sussed, just dump 'em on the side of the road somewhere.
mistaTea
25-11-2020, 08:13 PM
Ogg had it sussed, just dump 'em on the side of the road somewhere.
Preferably outside fff ff f Faafoi's ff f fale
These damned trucks are getting in the way of Ogg’s Discovery takeover...
Alpha
25-11-2020, 09:15 PM
It's a dam conspiracy.
Dlownz
25-11-2020, 09:21 PM
Wow really comcom. Too busy with the bull**** supermarket reports
Alpha
25-11-2020, 09:25 PM
Seriously we should lodge a complaint against them. We need answer and we need them now.
https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/nep-broadcast-services-new-zealand-limited-and-sky-network-television-limited?target=timeline
Those lying bastards. The decision has been pushed out to 19 Feb!!
Jesus farking Christ, what a sh!t show...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
Alpha
25-11-2020, 09:37 PM
Do they even need comcom clearance like ogg just dump them. Unless something else has come up?
Do they even need comcom clearance like ogg just dump them. Unless something else has come up?
The issue is with the 10 year agreement, not the trucks.
I'm thinking that the delay is because Sky and NEP need to renegotiate the contract. It will likely be 5 years max or until the end of the NZRU deal. 10 years did seem a bit much. Christmas holidays coming up so nothing gets done.
All this BS because a couple of losers wrote in and complained, just lol. They should have just done the deal and not even asked the ComCom, like when Sky entered the broadband market. It's like asking council to erect a fence - you don't ask.
This puts the takeover on hold for a while.
Martin on the phone to ComCom, messing things up again...
https://i.kinja-img.com/gawker-media/image/upload/s--SsveIces--/c_scale,f_auto,fl_progressive,q_80,w_800/idyilj94unkcmzgiszxq.gif
Quantitative Easing
25-11-2020, 11:10 PM
Surprise surprise. Dirty money from Spark has once again corrupted the commerce commission. Bunch of cronies. I bet it was Scotty Stevenson that sent in the complaint.
mistaTea
26-11-2020, 06:21 AM
The whole thing is so futile. The deal will get done.
If the Comcom block it then there is a God damn conspiracy against Sky.
In which case Sky should just shut down OSB, put the trucks on trademe.
And then sign a deal with NEP. I’m thinking 10 years...
mistaTea
26-11-2020, 04:47 PM
https://www.sky.co.nz/broadbandhelp?inheritRedirect=true
Help is on its way...
mistaTea
26-11-2020, 08:22 PM
https://www.sky.co.nz/broadband-terms-and-conditions?inheritRedirect=true
Some lucky b@stards are going to get free high speed internet from Sky for a at least 6 months...
$179 for 6 months Sky Sport Now on GrabOne
Alpha
27-11-2020, 04:18 PM
$179 for 6 months Sky Sport Now on GrabOne
22 Have already purchased.
mistaTea
27-11-2020, 05:00 PM
$179 for 6 months Sky Sport Now on GrabOne
Ok deal, about $20 saved in the first six months compared to if you purchased their standard annual pass.
Can’t beat the $299 I paid for 12 months though - $25/month. That special deal is long gone.
airedale
27-11-2020, 05:30 PM
The idea that I get from this is that SKY are moving to chase sales and are marketing the company and their product.
In J Fellets day it very much ...take it or leave it...
Alpha
27-11-2020, 05:35 PM
Yup they are going hard in the sales hoping for a boomer result next time around. Will also have the additional broadband.
mistaTea
27-11-2020, 05:53 PM
The idea that I get from this is that SKY are moving to chase sales and are marketing the company and their product.
In J Fellets day it very much ...take it or leave it...
Absolutely, the reality is that Sky need to have much more competitive pricing.
Gone are the premium entertainment monopoly days - so Sky can’t just keep high bundle prices and trust that people will still pay them for it.
NETFLIX changed all that, and Spark Sport has added to it too.
Better products, competitive pricing - everything you would expect to come from a market with healthy competition.
Consumers will end up better off in the end I think.
The good news is there is still plenty of money to be made if new products can be positioned correctly. Aggregation will become more and more attractive over time.
Sky TV is the Top Net Buy recommendation through Macquarie at the moment.
And this came out in the WSJ yesterday.
DJ Macquarie Upbeat on Sky TV's Broadband Prospects -- Market Talk
26 Nov 2020 09:49:41
2249 GMT - New Zealand satellite TV and streaming company Sky Network Television could reach breakeven on an ebitda basis for its planned broadband service relatively quickly, Macquarie believes. Sky can capitalize on an existing large number of customers and its existing marketing and billing systems while competing on price, the bank says, after building broadband rollout assumptions into its forecasts for Sky. Macquarie expects Sky to start offering broadband to its premium satellite customers in late 1Q of calendar 2021, calling the broadband play a correct decision "albeit many years late." Sky shares are the NZX-50's worst performer this year, down 56%, as investors wait for firmer signs of a business turnaround. (stephen.wright@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 25, 2020 17:49 ET (22:49 GMT)
And even better...
News Summary
*DJ Sky Network Television Target Price Raised 17% to NZ$0.40/Share by Macquarie>SKT.NZ
26 Nov 2020 09:14:13
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 25, 2020 17:14 ET (22:14 GMT)
Dlownz
27-11-2020, 09:46 PM
And even better...
News Summary
*DJ Sky Network Television Target Price Raised 17% to NZ$0.40/Share by Macquarie>SKT.NZ
26 Nov 2020 09:14:13
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
November 25, 2020 17:14 ET (22:14 GMT)
Is this the first reevaluation so far. These guys were the highest of the lot so it will be interesting to see what the next ones are from. Everyone else. Was the lowest 17 cents average around 25 cents
Is this the first reevaluation so far.
Not sure. Macquarie is pretty much the sharpest investment bank here in Aus, so I'd take their opinion over other the international hacks like Credit Suisse or UBS who for example had rated Afterpay at $16. They may have moved their rating up slightly higher when it Afterpay hit $100.
These guys were the highest of the lot so it will be interesting to see what the next ones are from.
Yes, agreed
Everyone else. Was the lowest 17 cents average around 25 cents
Were these the old rating from the time of the capital raise? Forsythe Barr was a joke. Fat Prophets rating of 50c might have been slightly too high.
Entrep
27-11-2020, 11:04 PM
Any rating from any bank for any stock is a joke
Any rating from any bank for any stock is a joke
Forsythe Barr is the joke.
Macquarie are a powerhouse with over a million customers.
I know loads of people who take their advice.
Why? Because they've made them money.
And they can see the bleeding obvious:
That Sky stock is underpriced by the market.
mistaTea
28-11-2020, 08:07 AM
Forsythe Barr is the joke.
Macquarie are a powerhouse with over a million customers.
I know loads of people who take their advice.
Why? Because they've made them money.
And they can see the bleeding obvious:
That Sky stock is underpriced by the market.
I agree with anyone who says I am going to be filthy rich soon...
Dlownz
28-11-2020, 09:22 AM
I agree with anyone who says I am going to be filthy rich soon...
Its not going to be soon mistaTea depends on your context. The pricing is 12 months time which 40cents is believable if they launch things on time and momentum keeps proceeding. If the osb sale goes through in Feb fingers crossed we will not only have half year results but a osb announcement no long after. I'm hoping we have seen the last of the goodwill impairments and the news the broadband will launch in April/May. I was hoping it would launch sooner (like Now). But there's obviously alot more work to do on it at this stage. I would love to join the trial but I have a phone line and the line of phone line may not launch with trial stops me dead.
40cents a share will get the price back to where it was 1 year ago without the cap raise.
mistaTea
28-11-2020, 09:52 AM
Its not going to be soon mistaTea depends on your context. The pricing is 12 months time which 40cents is believable if they launch things on time and momentum keeps proceeding. If the osb sale goes through in Feb fingers crossed we will not only have half year results but a osb announcement no long after. I'm hoping we have seen the last of the goodwill impairments and the news the broadband will launch in April/May. I was hoping it would launch sooner (like Now). But there's obviously alot more work to do on it at this stage. I would love to join the trial but I have a phone line and the line of phone line may not launch with trial stops me dead.
40cents a share will get the price back to where it was 1 year ago without the cap raise.
End of Q1 of calendar 2021 would be March?
I expect the release to be sooner than that. They are trialling the service with premium satellite subs now.
They want to launch the full offering early next year.
Given they have been trialling with staff for months, and now with satellite subs...no major issues seem to have been reported so I think they are on track.
Dlownz
28-11-2020, 10:07 AM
We will soon find out I guess.
Bumps in share price will be
1. Half year results
2 conformation of osb sale
3 Broadband launch
Share price after all these bumps 22 cents
What's everyone's else's thinking.
ados_nz
28-11-2020, 11:10 AM
Closer to 30c IMO but agree with your trigger points... Sans any Vocus play.
Dlownz
28-11-2020, 11:13 AM
Closer to 30c IMO but agree with your trigger points... Sans any Vocus play.
No point going for vocus.
Create your own value and business. Rather than buy something then find it was overvalued the keep writing off good will. At least this starts from scratch so it can only grow and not get smaller.
The existing customer base is something sine company's can only dream about when offering new services.
mistaTea
28-11-2020, 11:17 AM
No point going for vocus.
Create your own value and business. Rather than buy something then find it was overvalued the keep writing off good will. At least this starts from scratch so it can only grow and not get smaller.
The existing customer base is something sine company's can only dream about when offering new services.
Damn right. Vocus would more than likely be a bad move as they would over pay to get it.
1M subs - Christ, most companies could only dream of having that kind of penetration.
And remember, 1M subs will be the equivalent of over 2M New Zealanders that their product can reach 24/7, 365 days a year. That’s a lot of people to reach out to for marketing new offers.
I agree with anyone who says I am going to be filthy rich soon...
Haha! Absolutely.
We will soon find out I guess.
Bumps in share price will be
1. Half year results
2 conformation of osb sale
3 Broadband launch
Share price after all these bumps 22 cents
What's everyone's else's thinking.
I’m close to what Ados thinks too now which is circa 30c. The shares are worth more but I think it’s going to take a bit longer for the market to appreciate Sky’s turnaround story. Perhaps 33.5 which is halfway between Forsythe Barr and Fat Phrophets target.
ados_nz
28-11-2020, 11:49 AM
Completely agree and I hope there isn't a play here by Sky. But like all good OGG takeover theories it can't be completely ruled out yet.
DownTownJr
28-11-2020, 11:55 AM
After broadband release, OSB sell off and half year results, I would like to see around 22-25. Full year results surely around 30cents. Would love to be wrong on all counts and see a 40cent share price lol.
mistaTea
28-11-2020, 02:08 PM
After broadband release, OSB sell off and half year results, I would like to see around 22-25. Full year results surely around 30cents. Would love to be wrong on all counts and see a 40cent share price lol.
What will it take for Sky to be valued at $1B?
DownTownJr
28-11-2020, 02:54 PM
What will it take for Sky to be valued at $1B?
I have no idea. But I do have faith in Martin and as a past consumer of Sky products the reason why we cancelled Sky was because of cost. We enjoyed watching Discovery, National Geographic etc and movies, but didn't want to pay the full cost of Sky just for the few channels we enjoyed.
I am most looking forward to seeing how they repackage these bundles, especially with the chance of a new STB that could cut the cost of the monthly fee, although it's a shame the STB is such a long way out.
If Sky can continue to grow their consumer numbers and decrease churn, bundle some new packages with sport + neon + broadband etc, then we could be in for some exciting times.
Or even better leave it up to OGG for a takeover conspiracy.
mistaTea
28-11-2020, 03:47 PM
I have no idea. But I do have faith in Martin and as a past consumer of Sky products the reason why we cancelled Sky was because of cost. We enjoyed watching Discovery, National Geographic etc and movies, but didn't want to pay the full cost of Sky just for the few channels we enjoyed.
I am most looking forward to seeing how they repackage these bundles, especially with the chance of a new STB that could cut the cost of the monthly fee, although it's a shame the STB is such a long way out.
If Sky can continue to grow their consumer numbers and decrease churn, bundle some new packages with sport + neon + broadband etc, then we could be in for some exciting times.
Or even better leave it up to OGG for a takeover conspiracy.
Martin and his team maintain my full support.
He has had to make some tough calls, but the right calls. No doubt he has not executed everything 100%, but what human being is perfect?
I think he has learned a lot about Sky and NZ over the last year or so...and overall he has been leading the company in the right direction.
Can he pull off one of the great turnaround stories of NZ corporate history? Only time will tell, but on the balance of probabilities...I say yes.
And at the current low SP, I hope they elect for buybacks next year instead of re-establishing a dividend.
DownTownJr
28-11-2020, 04:23 PM
And at the current low SP, I hope they elect for buybacks next year instead of re-establishing a dividend.
I would be in favor of a buyback, way to many shares currently available and would bring some stability and not see thousands of shares for sale. Have a feeling they will opt for a dividend, as a dividend will be more appealing to future investors.
Dlownz
28-11-2020, 05:47 PM
I would be in favor of a buyback, way to many shares currently available and would bring some stability and not see thousands of shares for sale. Have a feeling they will opt for a dividend, as a dividend will be more appealing to future investors.
Share consolidation with a dividend.
Two birds one stone
Share consolidation with a dividend.
Two birds one stone
A buyback or consolidation + dividend are both good options. I wonder which is better for investors?
Dlownz
29-11-2020, 07:58 AM
A buyback or consolidation + dividend are both good options. I wonder which is better for investors?
I never really got a answer to how much a share consolidation costs so it depends. If say it costs 10mil to share consolidation vs buying shares then it's going to be better value to do the share consolidation as it works out a lot cheaper. Thoughts...??
I think sky needs to be working on executing/optimizing their Broadband/Sky packages. Rather than worry about Vocus. As Vocus also serve a lot of Business customers. That is whole different ballgame.
Also focus on signing up more sports content. Examples -F1/NZCricket/Football/EPL going forward. In my case, i now have to subscribe to spark sport for Cricket, albeit for a short time. A lot of friends i know have signed up-to Spark sport. Just puzzles me, as there is hardly any content.
If executed well, this will definitely make a positive difference to the share price.
A dividend in the near future may not bring much to us shareholders. But, Yes might bring in new investors in the short term.
Snoopy
29-11-2020, 08:20 AM
I never really got a answer to how much a share consolidation costs so it depends. If say it costs 10mil to share consolidation vs buying shares then it's going to be better value to do the share consolidation as it works out a lot cheaper. Thoughts...??
There are no imputation credits on the Sky books due to accumulated losses. That means buying back shares is more 'capital efficient' than paying dividends. In a consolidation, the more shares bought back, the less shares are left to distribute company profits to. So earnings per share will go up, even if company profits in dollar terms are flat. That is good for remaining shareholders.
As far as share consolidation goes, I have never heard of the cost of the exercise putting off a consolidation happening. In theory, it makes no difference to shareholders because the share reduction is proportional for all shareholders. The same profit is shared over less shares on issue. The two effects 'More profit per share' and 'less shares overall' exactly balance each other out.
SNOOPY
winner69
29-11-2020, 08:37 AM
There are no imputation credits on the Sky books due to accumulated losses. That means buying back shares is more 'capital efficient' than paying dividends. In a consolidation, the more shares bought back, the less shares are left to distribute company profits to. So earnings per share will go up, even if company profits in dollar terms are flat. That is good for remaining shareholders.
As far as share consolidation goes, I have never heard of the cost of the exercise putting off a consolidation happening. In theory, it makes no difference to shareholders because the share reduction is proportional for all shareholders. The same profit is shared over less shares on issue. The two effects 'More profit per share' and 'less shares overall' exactly balance each other out.
SNOOPY
Snoops - SKT have $146m of available imputation credits (AR June 2020)
Snoopy
29-11-2020, 08:58 AM
Snoops - SKT have $146m of available imputation credits (AR June 2020)
Thanks for the correction. I just assumed with all the write-downs all retained profits would have been extinguished. If a positive imputation credit balance exists, then it makes just as much economic sense to pay a dividend as it does to do a buy back.
SNOOPY
mistaTea
29-11-2020, 09:21 AM
Thanks for the correction. I just assumed with all the write-downs all retained profits would have been extinguished. If a positive imputation credit balance exists, then it makes just as much economic sense to pay a dividend as it does to do a buy back.
SNOOPY
I think it comes down to how undervalued management feel the company is. If the current 16.6c/share is a 50% or greater discount to their estimation of intrinsic value, then I think a share buyback is a no-brainer.
Sure, the imputation credits will reduce some of the tax burden on shareholders if a dividend is declared...but it will only reduce it, not eliminate it.
Dividends are ****e, they should only ever be paid out to shareholders when buybacks are not favourable to existing shareholders and the money can not be reinvested back into the business for growth in a meaningful way. It is such a tax inefficient way to return money to shareholders.
I would much rather a share buyback at these prices so that I can own a bigger slice of the pie.
Let's say that next year there is $30M that is distributable to shareholders. Management could still easily buy back 150M shares (the SP would likely increase somewhat once a buyback was declared, so 150M shares would be if they bought $30M worth of shares at an average of 20c/share. Just being conservative on how many shares could be bought back on market - not a prediction on how the SP would behave :D).
That would reduce shares outstanding to ~1.6B - close enough to a 9% reduction.
Then if the business continues to execute well on the strategy, increase EBITDA...it would not be totally lunatic to expect the SP to increase further over time.
Once the SP hit a level where a buyback was no longer favourable to existing shareholders relative to a dividend...then I think a share consolidation would have more merit.
Let's say in this hypothetical, the SP has hit 30c after the previous buyback and more progress with broadband etc. Shares outstanding = 1.6B.
Well you could do a 4:1 consolidation. The shares outstanding reduce to 400M (all of our shareholdings are reduced by the same proportion, so we are no 'better' or 'worse' off).
BUT...all things being equal, the quoted value per share would quadruple on the smaller number of shares outstanding. So the SP should 'rocket' to $1.20. The benefit here is that Sky would no longer be a 'penny stock' and that could potentially start to attract other large investors who are not allowed to invest in penny stocks.
My two cents + GST for what it is worth!
winner69
29-11-2020, 09:36 AM
Could do a prorata buyback ...every shareholder participates (no choice)
But that would be dumb so soon after extracting cash from poor shareholders ...and do they actually have excessive amounts of ‘spare capital’ to return
If Martin bonus is TSR related a buyback would help get it
mistaTea
29-11-2020, 10:01 AM
Could do a prorata buyback ...every shareholder participates (no choice)
But that would be dumb so soon after extracting cash from poor shareholders ...and do they actually have excessive amounts of ‘spare capital’ to return
If Martin bonus is TSR related a buyback would help get it
I think they are expecting to have surplus cash from operations in the second half of the 2021 calendar year.
By then most of the large CAPEX for the transition would have been spent and the $100M bonds repaid (which was the purpose of the cap raise).
Good position to get to, and if both Martin and shareholders benefit from a buyback then that is a win win.
It would only be bad if a buyback was done at a price that was not in existing shareholders best interests but benefited the CEO massively due to his bonus structure.
I don’t see us being in that position for a long time!
KJMLimited
29-11-2020, 12:27 PM
$126m of imputation credits of a company with a market cap of $290m is a lazy balance sheet item that is best in the hands of shareholders. They are of no use to the company. Future credits can be generated by regular NPAT and then distributed to shareholders by way of fully imputed dividends but obviously SKT is not in that position yet. Before that, a special dividend to take care of the existing credits would do the trick, but then SKT doesn't have the cash to do because they need to repay debt. The answer is probably a taxable bonus share issue to all shareholders, with the imputation credits attached to offset the tax liability. But....that just adds to the liquidity problem. So then a share consolidation is the next step. However I don't mind the way things are atm - if SKT performs, then the price will go up in the long term no matter how many shares are lying around. More free shares via a bonus issue would do nicely though. NB - I'm not 100% sure of weather a bonus share issue can carry imputation credits these days - it is something which Waste Management did way back in the day though.
winner69
29-11-2020, 12:41 PM
Imputation credits lost if Ogg gets his way. .but if a takeover at $1 who cares
winner69
29-11-2020, 12:49 PM
got enough imputation credits to cover a 21 cent divie
KJMLimited
29-11-2020, 01:07 PM
Correct, but they are repaying debt with the cash aren't they? That was my understanding. However the prospect of a 21c dividend on a share price of say 17c would still make anyone's eyes light up wouldn't it?
winner69
29-11-2020, 02:14 PM
Missing my cricket
Quantitative Easing
29-11-2020, 02:56 PM
Missing my cricket
Well then you're in luck. Australia vs India live on Sky tonight :)
Dlownz
29-11-2020, 07:45 PM
Well see what happens tomorrow with the new evaluations coming through.
Sideshow Bob
29-11-2020, 09:33 PM
Missing my cricket
Got a little tip - can watch it via the TAB app. Go to "Watch & Bet".
Well when the cricket is on at least.....
Entrep
30-11-2020, 07:25 AM
The 20/20 was free on TV1? Won’t all games be?
winner69
30-11-2020, 08:01 AM
The 20/20 was free on TV1? Won’t all games be?
Only selected ones it seems ....Friday night treat every now and again.
mistaTea
30-11-2020, 10:20 AM
This is how I imagine walking in on Ogg counselling Martin about why a takeover while Sky's shares are at an all time low are in everyones best interest...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b3w6c7RUbUs
This is how I imagine walking in on Ogg counselling Martin about why a takeover while Sky's shares are at an all time low are in everyones best interest...
Not a LOTR fan. I immediately think of Shortland Street when watching this.
ComCom update
https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0024/229038/NEP-and-Sky-OSB-Statement-of-Issues-30-November-2020.pdf
More submissions...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE
mistaTea
30-11-2020, 10:34 AM
Not a LOTR fan. I immediately think of Shortland Street when watching this.
Read the books.
Seriously, the ComCom is just a farking joke...
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4f/56/58/4f56588cd246707ec5e4d938d28f8a50.gif
mistaTea
30-11-2020, 10:38 AM
Seriously, the ComCom is just a farking joke...
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/4f/56/58/4f56588cd246707ec5e4d938d28f8a50.gif
I think the comcom needs to apologise to Sky just like Stuff have apologised to the cuzzies.
They have marginalised and stereotyped Sky for far too long!
Cash_Lion
30-11-2020, 11:12 AM
ComCom look like they are rooting for SKT to go bankrupt/out of business hahahah jesus
mistaTea
30-11-2020, 11:20 AM
ComCom look like they are rooting for SKT to go bankrupt/out of business hahahah jesus
I’m just shocked that they haven’t stepped in and forbidden Sky Broadband!
Heaven forbid if consumers should stand to get better deals!
The best thing for Sky is to stay exactly as they are now, get one or two last puffs of the soggy stogie that they have become and then just go bust.
According to the comcom anyway...
mistaTea
30-11-2020, 11:49 AM
Sky TV, NEP use lure of 4K ultra-high definition as watchdog mulls deal
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12386120
Sky TV, NEP use lure of 4K ultra-high definition as watchdog mulls deal
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12386120
Dumping the trucks on the side of the road is starting to look pretty good now, mmhh?
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