SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

Dumping the trucks on the side of the road is starting to look pretty good now, mmhh?

Well, we def don’t want to spend $50M upgrading trucks when there is no guarantee of how much business OSB will get once Spark Sport and others begin winning more sport rights.

So yeah, if they block it I reckon we just wind the business down anyway. Put the trucks on the side of road with a $10,000 or nearest offer cardboard sign in the windshield and just have done with the f*cken things.

Then sign on with NEP for the next 5 years.

[Ogg]

Well, we def don’t want to spend $50M upgrading trucks when there is no guarantee of how much business OSB will get once Spark Sport and others begin winning more sport rights.

So yeah, if they block it I reckon we just wind the business down anyway. Put the trucks on the side of road with a $10,000 or nearest offer cardboard sign in the windshield and just have done with the f*cken things.

Then sign on with NEP for the next 5 years.

It was never about the $50m. It's going to cost more over the long run to outsource the service as prices will increase over time.

It only made sense to sell because the trucks have nothing to do over the summer months now that the cricket rights are gone.

Once OSB is flicked off, it should clear the way for a takeover. That's the real positive.

[Checkmate]

What’s the thesis here? Hasn’t SKY been struggling for years, what’s all the hype about now?

[mistaTea]

What’s the thesis here? Hasn’t SKY been struggling for years, what’s all the hype about now?

The long and short of it is that the Comcom keeps putting Sky into a weird state of Zugzwang.

[Ogg]

What’s the thesis here? Hasn’t SKY been struggling for years, what’s all the hype about now?

Basically, Sky has a huge monopoly more than Google, FaceBook, New World and Countdown combined, so the entire ComCom team is on the case, with 100 people looking over the application with a fine comb and writing 100 point rebuttals.

[mistaTea]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/123547975/sky-tv-outsourcing-deal-could-stop-others-competing-for-second-tier-sports?cid=app-iPhone

I could understand the ComCom having concerns if the sky deal with NEP was exclusive. Obviously that would be a major issue and I would be shocked that Sky and NEP would even propose such a thing.

But Sky has refuted that the 10 year deal is exclusive. Nothing to stop other companies like Spark from doing an equivalent deal with NEP.

But the Comcom seem to think that the proposed deal is exclusive?

[Quantitative Easing]

Dumping the trucks on the side of the road is starting to look pretty good now, mmhh?

Just leave the trucks parked in Clendon. I am sure the trucks will disappear in no time.

[Quantitative Easing]

https://www.reddit.com/r/newzealand/comments/k3lw5c/commerce_commission_putting_sky_tv_out_of/

[justin5]

Just leave the trucks parked in Clendon. I am sure the trucks will disappear in no time.

Hmmmm ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/123467844/lewis-pass-reopened-after-truck-crash-injures-driver

[Ogg]

No announcement from Sky yet. Is this not price sensitive?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqJVa0fl01w

[Ogg]

Just leave the trucks parked in Clendon. I am sure the trucks will disappear in no time.

A better idea is to spin off OSB into a separate holding company. Sky shareholders could own it under a trust. Then sell off the assets to NEP for a premium, with the funds being distributed to shareholder proportional to the value of the 10 year contract.

[Dlownz]

Alot of shares changed hand at the end of the day.

[Ogg]

Alot of shares changed hand at the end of the day.

monthly rebalance maybe.

[Alpha]

Yeah seemed like this happen for quite a few stocks I am watching.

[mistaTea]

Sky’s view on what they will do instead if the Comcom do not allow the OSB sale to NEP has been redacted.

I wonder if it just says “trucks dumped on the side of State Highway 1 and OSB staff sacked”.

[steveb]

Martins gone,which is a shame I thought he was doing a good job of turing things around.

[DownTownJr]

Argh. Not the time for Martin to be leaving as we start to see a increase in SP.

[Ogg]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/364233/336486.pdf

The coup d'état has began....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[bull....]

martins doesnt want to go down with the ship. skt terminal decline have done nothing to address there rediculous pricing

[dompf]

Martins gone,which is a shame I thought he was doing a good job of turing things around.

Every time a CEO is in the newspaper with a biography piece - they seem to leave their jobs shortly after. Almost like they use it as a CV ... I liked Martin clearly very talented guy -

[k14]

“Since joining Sky in February 2019, Martin has led a successful turnaround and the Board acknowledges his significant contribution,” Mr Bowman says.

Geez, would hate to see what the boards criteria is for a poor performance then...

[mistaTea]

Damn, that is bad news no matter how you dress it up.

Let’s just hope that Sky is so advanced on the new path he helped set that the momentum continues.

He was buying shares in Sky up until very recently so this announcement has come as a surprise!

[KJMLimited]

The new CEO has considerable experience in media and in Sky. Martin always seemed like a salesman/marketer/change type CEO which is what SkyTV needed at the time. But that work has been done, so now it needs someone who can just run it sensibly. I don't see this change as a negative one.

[mistaTea]

Sophie does have impressive credentials, and I am sure she is very capable. She has been at the forefront of a lot of the big decisions.

It just isn’t ideal timing when we are right about to launch Sky Broadband etc.

[Alpha]

Some costs savings going on with the reduced Salary.

[Tripp]

Sophie does have impressive credentials, and I am sure she is very capable. She has been at the forefront of a lot of the big decisions.

It just isn’t ideal timing when we are right about to launch Sky Broadband etc.

Sophie is a great person, always willing to listen to people and their ideas etc. A very smart person when it comes to deals etc. I am over the moon that she has been selected for CEO of sky.

[winner69]

Martin no doubt seen the writing on the wall and shoots through

Is Blair stil around - wasted space he his

[clown]

A bit harsh from NZ Herald: Martin Stewart blamed NZ's tough Covid border restrictions for his decision, despite his inability to reverse Sky's long-term share slide.

[Alpha]

I was thinking maybe he was trying to push something radical not just the broadband/mobile. ... ENERGY? Sorry Martin but we are just going to wait for Oggs takeover.

Martin ok then see ya later.

[mistaTea]

No doubt the border restrictions are just part of the decision. He is coming up 2 years, and if you look at his CV it seems he does not stick around too long. Comes in, shakes things up and then gets out.

But he is British and his partner is French. The border restrictions preventing them from spending time with their families is no doubt also taking its toll.

[winner69]

Damn, that is bad news no matter how you dress it up.

Let’s just hope that Sky is so advanced on the new path he helped set that the momentum continues.

He was buying shares in Sky up until very recently so this announcement has come as a surprise!

Think company bought those 150,000 shares for him the other day - part of his contract

[Alpha]

Agree Mista - Plenty of people are moving back "home" and accepting the changes have been made which appears to be the case then now make sense to move back. Sophie has plenty of experience and will be great for the company going forward.

[mistaTea]

I wonder how long until Sophie rings me up for a coffee so I can draw my diagram for her...

[winner69]

Always wondered why Sky TV Board seems to get lumbered with Warehouse Group directors ....and of course Derek

[Alpha]

Hahah Have you posted this Diagram before? I recall you mentioning it previously. If not I would keen to have a look :)

[Alpha]

I see a few of the panic sellers are sitting in the cue. I hope broadband going live is announced soon.

[RGR367]

I wonder how long until Sophie rings me up for a coffee so I can draw my diagram for her...

Leave her be and she'll do good. Besides, she's a lawyer and she will easily spot your very convoluted presentation achieving nothing in the end but prolonging another conspiracy terrain :p

[mistaTea]

Leave her be and she'll do good. Besides, she's a lawyer and she will easily spot your very convoluted presentation achieving nothing in the end but prolonging another conspiracy terrain :p

The content of the diagram is not so important. It’s the ‘deadly serious’ face I put on while drawing it that captures their imagination. I’ve practiced it in the mirror heaps.

That and my sex face. Both are very good now!

[Alpha]

Dam ASB has crashed on SKT news. Everyone trying to login at the same time./

[DDog]

Very slow!

[Entrep]

Came in, talked a HUGE game, bagged the old CEO/team, did a rights issue at 12c, rekt the share price, and buggered off.

GOOD RIDDANCE

[winner69]

Last time I had a beer with Blair he said a dude had tried to explain something on his whiteboard -- saved it he did -- showed me this and asked if I understood it

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=11872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1598046009

MiastaT little diagram as to the future of Sky TV

A convoluted mess

[nevchev]

Damn,i thought Martin was good for Sky.Seems we cant catch a break.

[Alpha]

hahaha that is awesome.

[mistaTea]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=11872&stc=1&thumb=1&d=1598046009

MiastaT little diagram as to the future of Sky TV

A convoluted mess

That is my intellectual (or lack thereof) property winner!

Stop sharing it without paying me please.

[Entrep]

Another failure by the board in their initial appointment of Stewart too

[mistaTea]

Another failure by the board in their initial appointment of Stewart too

Maybe they should have asked John Felett to come back. Kinda like how Winston Churchill had a come back...

[DownTownJr]

Well most of us here assumed Martin was leaving sometime next year, so I guess we should get the SP pain over and done with already. I would rather suffer this pain now vs when broadband etc has been released.

Hopefully the SP settles down a little, as I don't see this major drop as justifiable.

[peat]

Another failure by the board in their initial appointment of Stewart too

however it seems like the new appointee was making the leadership strategies ??

[Alpha]

Right now the market is reacting to the news making the assumption that a change in CEO is bad. While sometimes this can be the case but I think this move pre broadband etc could actually be quite a good thing for the share price. Initially shares drop. Broadband is then announced new year. OSB deal is finalised in hopefully done. We then get some more positive numbers Feb/march with the interim results. We then have additional news of.... mobile. Sept rolls round annual report out. Sophie is doing a great job first female in the roll share price on the way up. It is all part of their plan to turn around the company and Martin was just the fall guy but it was his plan all along. They needed to get rid of CFO as he prob wanted Martins job.

Edit I'm really just pulling at straws

[madmat]

Came in, talked a HUGE game, bagged the old CEO/team, did a rights issue at 12c, rekt the share price, and buggered off.

GOOD RIDDANCE

Agree, he danced around the edges of good ideas. Made no real impact. Good Bye.

[bull....]

Agree, he danced around the edges of good ideas. Made no real impact. Good Bye.

exactly all fancy dress while they continue to get every last drop of blood out of the suckers that keep paying inflated sky subs lol

[Alpha]

How low will she go. Readying some additional funds and still waiting on PX1 refund to come through.

[peat]

How low will she go. Readying some additional funds and still waiting on PX1 refund to come through.

15.5 could find support
or 15 worst case.

[winner69]

15.5 could find support
or 15 worst case.

likes like 15 is on cards soon ....and then even lower

martin leaving is clear message company is in trouble

[nevchev]

Try the mid 14s.Market seems very disappointed.

[mistaTea]

Try the mid 14s.Market seems very disappointed.

Would have been so much better if he waited until the Feb results before gapping it.

By then he could say broadband has been successfully launched, OSB sold and the business is in much better shape and ready for Sophie to take over.

Totally understand the pull of family, and the border restrictions making it really tough on him and his partner.

But boy I wish he could have given us another 3 months.

Having said that, there really wasn’t ever going to be a ‘great time’ for him to resign.

And he has left effective immediately! Sophie can ring him up from time to time over the next 3 months if she needs a hand, but that’s it. That will add to people wondering if something more sinister is up.

[winner69]

Try the mid 14s.Market seems very disappointed.

Hope it doesn't go back to 12

[Balance]

Wonder what kind of package Sky agreed to - golden handshake & now, golden parachute?

[tqtq]

The board's just made a Sophie's Choice.
(I wonder if that movie is streaming on Sky – it should be the pick of the week!)
It looks like Sophie was doing all of the big deals.
It seems to me that she's ultra-smart.
She's an eminently sensible choice to run the company.
Martin made Sky friendly and approachable again and helped in the repositioning.
Sophie looks like a talented executor.
It's all part of the transformation story really.
It's time to give her your full support.

[Dlownz]

Just the usual movement on unexpected announcements. Expect a recovery by the end of the day. Companys still on track and Sophie was the one doing all the hard work behind the scenes. Should get back to 16.3 by the end of the day

[Balance]

Wonder what kind of package Sky agreed to - golden handshake & now, golden parachute?

$1.5m salary package in F20, presumably same in F21.

600,000 shares to vest in the event of him leaving the company.

[Alpha]

Just the usual movement on unexpected announcements. Expect a recovery by the end of the day. Companys still on track and Sophie was the one doing all the hard work behind the scenes. Should get back to 16.3 by the end of the day


It's already back up at 16.3 - Hopefully gets a bit higher.

[tqtq]

Some nervous investors got flushed out this morning on the ASX. And it's already back to its yesterday's close price.
Also, just a reminder:


*DJ Sky Network Television Target Price Raised 17% to NZ$0.40/Share by Macquarie>SKT.NZ
26 Nov 2020 09:14:13

Good buying opportunity really.

[mistaTea]

Some nervous investors got flushed out this morning on the ASX. And it's already back to its yesterday's close price.
Also, just a reminder:


*DJ Sky Network Television Target Price Raised 17% to NZ$0.40/Share by Macquarie>SKT.NZ
26 Nov 2020 09:14:13

Good buying opportunity really.

Great to see all of these raises in TP.

If it works out well missusTea is going to be so happy with me.

She might even let me take the paper bag off my head when we boink!

[Alpha]

Did you end up buying anymore?

[tqtq]

She might even let me take the paper bag off my head when we boink!

If it hits the target price you'll be mistaTea bagger!

[mistaTea]

If it hits the target price you'll be mistaTea bagger!

LOLLL!!! Yes indeed!

“Baby, I couldn’t produce a five bagger...but here ya go, make do with a mistaTea bagger instead!”

[tqtq]

LOLLL!!! Yes indeed!

“Baby, I couldn’t produce a five bagger...but here ya go, make do with a mistaTea bagger instead!”

Haha... Just tell her that its not the size of the bagger, it's what you do with it!

[peat]

Did you end up buying anymore?

I added at 16.

[Waltzing]

i thought anyone with any sense would wait till 2022 till they return to europe.

and i can tell you as you all know those 1970's , 80's beaches before the harbour deepenings had perfect shaped waves .. who would leave?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300171657/sky-tv-boss-resigns-a-week-after-deciding-to-return-to-europe

there are still a few beaches out there ... canoeing in golden bay?

[winner69]

At least Sky didn’t find a Karen to take over.

[Alpha]

interesting to see has not affected ASX price one bit.

[Ogg]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00019/discovery-inc-completes-acquisition-of-new-zealands-mediaworks-tv-ltd.htm

[Ogg]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00019/discovery-inc-completes-acquisition-of-new-zealands-mediaworks-tv-ltd.htm

The same day as Martin walks.

Wasn't he going to call Discovery after the acquisition?

[mistaTea]

The same day as Martin walks.

Clearly a God damned conspiracy!!

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/ceo-departure-not-outcome-sky-expected-nine-months-ago-chair-says

Bowman speaks.

[Ogg]

Clearly a God damned conspiracy!!

Discovery NZ unsearchable on the NZ Companies website!

[mistaTea]

Discovery NZ unsearchable on the NZ Companies website!

Obviously there is only one possible reason for that.

The new name is Disco-SKY-very!

Only an absolute idiot would not see this incredibly obvious eventuality.

[DownTownJr]

Ok 16.2, so the carnage wasn't so bad. I don't think the markets reaction today was justified. The new CEO has the experience no doubt to see Sky continuing in the right direction, who knows in the long run this might end up working in Sky's favor. Seems some share holders disliked Martin's approach.

[Ogg]

Ok 16.2, so the carnage wasn't so bad. I don't think the markets reaction today was justified. The new CEO has the experience no doubt to see Sky continuing in the right direction, who knows in the long run this might end up working in Sky's favor. Seems some share holders disliked Martin's approach.

I actually like this Sophie girl (not because she's hot) but she's the right person to take over. She has the experience and is best suited for any takeover/merger negotiations as she handled the Lightbox merger and you need someone with good communication skills. The media will likely promote her heaps and it's good for Sky's image as women are seen as more trustworthy, something Sky has none of! This is just the person you want to front a company like this. I assume she's kiwi as well - enough of these expacs!

Martin was just a disaster. Although he was handed a hospital pass, even then, he made so many mistakes. Rugby Pass was terrible - overpaid and complete crap. Lightbox was a mistake too as long term movie/HBO streaming will never be profitable. The placement was the worst I've ever seen as it throw everyone under the bus, could have easily been avoided with cost cutting done quickly and RugbyPass not done etc. They had time with the bonds as well, could have been done at a better price than 12c. Raised far too much too. Broadband has just been sh*t. Too slow to roll out, too little too late etc. Sky Sport Now was probably the only good thing.

It's simple people! The satellite base is the only thing that's valuable. It's worth more than $250m! Just needs an offshore company (Discovery/ComCast) to come and buy it for $500m! Then this company can get delisted!

[mistaTea]

I actually like this Sophie girl (not because she's hot) but she's the right person to take over. She has the experience and is best suited for any takeover/merger negotiations as she handled the Lightbox merger and you need someone with good communication skills. The media will likely promote her heaps and it's good for Sky's image as women are seen as more trustworthy, something Sky has none of! This is just the person you want to front a company like this. I assume she's kiwi as well - enough of these expacs!

Martin was just a disaster. Although he was handed a hospital pass, even then, he made so many mistakes. Rugby Pass was terrible - overpaid and complete crap. Lightbox was a mistake too as long term movie/HBO streaming will never be profitable. The placement was the worst I've ever seen as it throw everyone under the bus, could have easily been avoided with cost cutting done quickly and RugbyPass not done etc. They had time with the bonds as well, could have been done at a better price than 12c. Raised far too much too. Broadband has just been sh*t. Too slow to roll out, too little too late etc. Sky Sport Now was probably the only good thing.

It's simple people! The satellite base is the only thing that's valuable. It's worth more than $250m! Just needs an offshore company (Discovery/ComCast) to come and buy it for $500m! Then this company can get delisted!

But if everything is so hopeless for Sky in the long run, and it really is such a dog - why should anyone be interested in buying it? Let alone paying half a billion dollars for it?

Since Sky is going to either lose all its premium sport and entertainment offerings (or end up having to pay way too much to keep it) then buying Sky would make no sense?

And if someone was prepared to pay $500M for Sky, then presumably they feel that the long term value of Sky is greater than that?
So existing shareholders might not want to sell for 3x EBITDA?

Crazy thoughts from me I know!

[Ogg]

But if everything is so hopeless for Sky in the long run, and it really is such a dog - why should anyone be interested in buying it? Let alone paying half a billion dollars for it?

Since Sky is going to either lose all its premium sport and entertainment offerings (or end up having to pay way too much to keep it) then buying Sky would make no sense?

And if someone was prepared to pay $500M for Sky, then presumably they feel that the long term value of Sky is greater than that?
So existing shareholders might not want to sell for 3x EBITDA?

Crazy thoughts from me I know!

It's like when you're playing monopoly, and you have some weird piece you don't need. Someone else needs it though and it's worth more to them then it is to you.

Discovery can issue 40 year bonds for less than 2% interest. Sky would be the perfect bolt on business to MediaWorks. Another 1m customers and half a billion in revenue to keep their US based shareholders happy.

[mistaTea]

It's like when you're playing monopoly, and you have some weird piece you don't need. Someone else needs it though and it's worth more to them then it is to you.

Discovery can issue 40 year bonds for less than 2% interest. Sky would be the perfect bolt on business to MediaWorks. Another 1m customers and half a billion in revenue to keep their US based shareholders happy.

They will have to pry Sky TV out of my cold, dead hands...

[Ogg]

They will have to pry Sky TV out of my cold, dead hands...

You've been watching the movie channel too much bro. Need to turn on Discovery channel a bit more...

[jimdog31]

Can somebody please tell me where the hell Blair has gone? He off shooting lightboxes first content feature “casper redux”?

[Ogg]

Can somebody please tell me where the hell Blair has gone? He off shooting lightboxes first content feature “casper redux”?

People just vanish inside this company.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[tqtq]

Can somebody please tell me where the hell Blair has gone? He off shooting lightboxes first content feature “casper redux”?

He's somewhere far, far away.
Space I presume.
Somewhere, out there, in his own orbit.

Actually, that's the other guy.
What's his name?

[Alpha]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tvs-new-boss-sophie-moloney-promises-kotahitanga-her-top-five-challenges/ZNR6ICUOQT423KZCV5VBRSYIHA/

[Ogg]

Wasn't Martin acting CFO as well? Literally no CFO for months and now the replacement gone.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqJVa0fl01w

[Ogg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tvs-new-boss-sophie-moloney-promises-kotahitanga-her-top-five-challenges/ZNR6ICUOQT423KZCV5VBRSYIHA/

Told you. There will be regular articles on this women. The liberal press will eat it up.

[Quantitative Easing]

Kiwi + woman. It's like Jacinda 2.0. Media will be on board 100% Also sounds decent based on Linkedin.

https://nz.linkedin.com/in/sophieemoloney

[tqtq]

Doesn't look like it will impact Sky fortunately:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123567180/tv3s-new-owner-discovery-may-bring-global-streaming-service-to-nz-next-year

[mistaTea]

Doesn't look like it will impact Sky fortunately:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123567180/tv3s-new-owner-discovery-may-bring-global-streaming-service-to-nz-next-year

“There is certainly no intent to change the pay-TV channels – the relationship with Sky is very important.”

Oh yes...in fact I bet they only want that relationship to become even closer...

[mistaTea]

Can somebody please tell me where the hell Blair has gone? He off shooting lightboxes first content feature “casper redux”?


https://www.linkedin.com/in/blairwoodbury/

Looks like he is a "part time" in his new Strategic Advisor. I wonder if Sophie will sh1t can him soon.

I mean, what the Hell is he advising her on? Sounds like all the big deals have been led by Sophie.

[mistaTea]

Discovery NZ unsearchable on the NZ Companies website!

https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/4587159

[Ogg]

https://www.linkedin.com/in/blairwoodbury/

Looks like he is a "part time" in his new Strategic Advisor. I wonder if Sophie will sh1t can him soon.

I mean, what the Hell is he advising her on? Sounds like all the big deals have been led by Sophie.

He's been killed off 'Game of Thrones' style.

Mista bending the knee to Sophie...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BjH9LVhUmI

[mistaTea]

Mista bending the knee to Sophie...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BjH9LVhUmI

Yes, but only after we smashed.

[tqtq]

Looks like DAZN has launched:
$2.99 per month
https://www.dazn.com

[tqtq]

Looks like the SP is back to what it was on Monday. The news about Martin hasn't made any difference at all. Nice vote of confidence for Sophie.

[Cash_Lion]

I don't understand though. Sophie has never acted as CEO before. How are people so confident in her?

[Ogg]

I don't understand though. Sophie has never acted as CEO before. How are people so confident in her?

Kotahitanga

[tqtq]

I don't understand though. Sophie has never acted as CEO before. How are people so confident in her?

She's unlikely to suffer the fate of most CEO's which is to #metoo their staff (not suggesting this is what happened to Martin – just a reference to corporate culture).

And she's more likely to be invited to a pyjama party or girls night out with Jacinda.

[airedale]

I don't understand though. Sophie has never acted as CEO before. How are people so confident in her?


Every first time CEO has never acted as a CEO before.

[Entrep]

Every first time CEO has never acted as a CEO before.

https://media.giphy.com/media/kc0kqKNFu7v35gPkwB/giphy.gif

[Ogg]

Mista's face after losing half his money in Sky....


https://media4.giphy.com/media/kc0kqKNFu7v35gPkwB/giphy.gif

[mistaTea]

Mista's face after losing half his money in Sky....


https://media4.giphy.com/media/kc0kqKNFu7v35gPkwB/giphy.gif

It’s not lost. Just misplaced!

[Ogg]

It’s not lost. Just misplaced!

You got more chance of finding Blair....

[Almost-confused]

Although it would have been nice to have Martin stay on, the continuity of an existing Exec that has already brought in to the latest strategy taking the CEO role is good for investors. Nothing more disruptive than a new to company CEO wanting to come and put their "stamp" on things with a strategy shake up.

[Ogg]

This is my new theory.

Glen KYNE, director of Discovery NZ Ltd, is also a director of Bravo TV Ltd, which is a JV between Discovery and ComCast.

I'm thinking a JV takeover of Sky TV by Discovery and ComCast.

ComCast would provided entertainment (and Neon after spinning it off), Discovery would provided news through mediaworks and documentary content.

50/50 ownership model. Sky platform would be used to promote DiscoveryPlus and PeacockTV.

USD $200m from each would be petty cash ~32c per share.

Put Sophie in charge of the whole thing. $3m salary plus bonus.

Thoughts?

[Tripp]

This is my new theory.

Glen KYNE, director of Discovery NZ Ltd, is also a director of Bravo TV Ltd, which is a JV between Discovery and ComCast.

I'm thinking a JV takeover of Sky TV by Discovery and ComCast.

ComCast would provided entertainment (and Neon after spinning it off), Discovery would provided news through mediaworks and documentary content.

50/50 ownership model. Sky platform would be used to promote DiscoveryPlus and PeacockTV.

USD $200m from each would be petty cash ~32c per share.

Put Sophie in charge of the whole thing. $3m salary plus bonus.

Thoughts?
I think it all depends if these companies want to get into BB and mobile etc.

[Ogg]

I think it all depends if these companies want to get into BB and mobile etc.

Perhaps...but Discovery didn't want to get into news, but here it is with 3 News.

It's so easy to get into and out of broadband anyway. There are a million companies doing it in NZ.

[tqtq]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sophies-choice-the-big-job-ahead-of-sky-boss

[peat]

Perhaps...but Discovery didn't want to get into news, but here it is with 3 News.

It's so easy to get into and out of broadband anyway. There are a million companies doing it in NZ.

50 according to this good article thanks tqtq


https://www.newsroom.co.nz/sophies-choice-the-big-job-ahead-of-sky-boss

[mistaTea]

Morningstar holding their valuation of Sky at 30c.
Event analysisSignal Disruptions Spread to Sky Management
The sudden resignation of Sky Network Television's CEO Martin Stewart is disconcerting for two reasons. First, an abrupt leadership change negatively impacts investor and employee sentiment in any organisation. But it is particularly unsettling for one undergoing a fundamental transformation amidst unrelenting structural headwinds. Given these challenges at the operating level, the last thing Sky investors need are similar disruptions at the management level. Second, the CEO resignation comes less than three months after the previous CFO Blair Woodbury vacated his position to become a "strategic advisor to the Chief Executive." It means the two key architects of Sky's current strategic plan to become a multiplatform subscription service provider are gone, further unnerving investor sentiment.

Fortunately, the new CEO Sophie Moloney presents some leadership continuity. She has served as Chief Legal, People and Partnerships Officer since joining Sky in 2018, and boasts experience in overseas pay TV markets since 2003. Most recently as the Chief Commercial Officer, Moloney also would have been instrumental in charting the course for Sky's transformation journey. As such, there are unlikely to be any major changes to the group's current strategy to accelerate investment in streaming services and marquee content, while rationalising its non-content-related costs.

We maintain our earnings forecasts and our NZD 0.30 per share fair value estimate for Sky (AUD 0.28 at current exchange rate). Shares in the no-moat-rated group remain at a significant discount to our intrinsic assessment, the realisation of which is now up to the execution capability of the new CEO and the team she assembles (including the new CFO). And the first test will be how she manages to cushion the potential earnings snapback from the current COVID-19-induced hiatus in "cord-cutting" and lower sports rights costs—dynamics that recently led to the rare profit guidance upgrade for fiscal 2021.

[Getty]

It’s not lost. Just misplaced!

Exactly.
If you have a look in Ronnie Xue's warehouse, you may find it..

[tqtq]

Morningstar holding their valuation of Sky at 30c.
Event analysis



Great to hear that Morningstar is holding Sky's valuation!
Even though Brian Han's not particularly hot on Cable or FTA v's OTT.

[peat]

Great to hear that Morningstar is holding Sky's valuation!
Even though Brian Han's not particularly hot on Cable or FTA v's OTT.

Or even though Morningstar have no clue and a regrettable history of valuations.

[tqtq]

Or even though Morningstar have no clue and a regrettable history of valuations.

Exactly. If Morningstar were bullish on Sky or putting on a premium not based upon the company's fundamentals I'd be concerned.

[tqtq]

I think it's time for Sky to get out of Dodge. The company has kept like fish on the NZX. So perhaps Sky should just delist and move the shares over to the ASX. I think that's the only way to get the share price up to where it should be. The company's share price death spiral has obviously burned a lot of Kiwi investors, so much so that most can't look at the investment opportunity objectively, which is understandable, even though it's turning around. If Sky were to move to the ASX entirely, the NZX would stop dragging Sky SP down, Sky would be out of scope to idiot investment houses like Forsythe Barr. Sky would find a new market amongst booming media stocks that could look at the stock dispassionately. Asset managers would stop trying to offload the stock because it would be going up. And management would get some much needed breathing room. Just a thought. A buy back, dividends or share consolidation (as per the ideas floated here before) would be a step in the right direction too.

[Ogg]

More waffle from the "The second submitter".

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0022/229153/Anonymous-Cross-submission-in-response-to-NEP-and-Sky-cross-submissions-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-17-November-2020.pdf

Sky should dump the trucks on his front lawn...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[mistaTea]

More waffle from the "The second submitter".

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0022/229153/Anonymous-Cross-submission-in-response-to-NEP-and-Sky-cross-submissions-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-17-November-2020.pdf

Sky should dump the trucks on his front lawn...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

This clown assumes that competition will always yield the greater results.

Not so, and in this case the CAPEX both Sky and NEP would have to spend to upgrade their trucks makes no sense relative to the broadcasting volumes they are likely to have over the coming years.

As one merged entity, with a 10 year guarantee of business from a large player like Sky, that CAPEX makes much more sense.

And the consumer is ultimately better off as they get they have the option to stream live matches in 4K etc.

Doesn’t seem that complicated to me.

But yes, let’s just dump the f*cking trucks at his house and be done with it.

[Tripp]

That reads very much like a grumpy old man who sits at home all day looking at things to b**ch about.
I am not really sure if sky would pay the $$ to update the trucks/equipment. Would not be that great of return on the investment currently.

[mistaTea]

That reads very much like a grumpy old man who sits at home all day looking at things to b**ch about.
I am not really sure if sky would pay the $$ to update the trucks/equipment. Would not be that great of return on the investment currently.

Yes there is no way we will pay that kind of money to upgrade the trucks.

We ain’t Rockerfeller.

So if Comcom say no - we will effectively dump the trucks.

And then sign a deal with NEP.

[Ogg]

Let's hope the ComCom does block the deal, because I heard Mediaworks needs some trucks

Thanks "second submitter"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Habits]

"Second submitter "

Does this mean the public can submit on comcom applications... thats weird I always thought it was a comcom decision that they exclusively review...

[Ogg]

"Second submitter "

Does this mean the public can submit on comcom applications... thats weird I always thought it was a comcom decision that they exclusively review...

Yeah, I submitted a 100 page submission because I own a Canon DS5 and have a youtube channel. This merger-to-monopoly deal will ruin me!

[Ogg]

Yeah, I submitted a 100 page submission because I own a Canon DS5 and have a youtube channel. This merger-to-monopoly deal will ruin me!

I shoot in 8K though, as nobody shots in 4k now.

[Ogg]

I shoot in 8K though, as nobody shots in 4k now.

Actually, there was a sale on a Harvey Norman, so I just bought a 16k camera.

[Ogg]

Actually, there was a sale on a Harvey Norman, so I just bought a 16k camera.

I'm on trademe now looking for some trucks to fit out.

[DownTownJr]

I'm on trademe now looking for some trucks to fit out.

Lol, even if this stock sits sideways for years at least I get a good laugh out of reading some of your comments OGG.

[Ogg]

Lol, even if this stock sits sideways for years at least I get a good laugh out of reading some of your comments OGG.

I'm surprised the stock has been sideways for nearly a year now...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YS9ocP6FNvM

[tqtq]

More waffle from the "The second submitter".

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0022/229153/Anonymous-Cross-submission-in-response-to-NEP-and-Sky-cross-submissions-on-Statement-of-Preliminary-Issues-17-November-2020.pdf

Sky should dump the trucks on his front lawn...



It's a bit shi!t that these people can submit their grievances anonymously. It's the equivalent of trolling.

[Ogg]

It's a bit shi!t that these people can submit their grievances anonymously. It's the equivalent of trolling.

"Submitter 1 and 2"...

https://i.imgur.com/vR5lCkv.jpg

[Tripp]

I think its Ogg and mistaTea doing this to keep the share price low for their own takeover at some point :P
If this happens can we get a 24 hour judge judy channel?

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12387679

Very good for Sky if the releases go straight to NEON.

[Ogg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501119&objectid=12387679

Very good for Sky if the releases go straight to NEON.

You mean straight to Sky Box Office...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[mistaTea]

You mean straight to Sky Box Office...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

NEON has pay per view too...

[Ogg]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/foxtel-s-secret-bid-adds-to-intrigue-at-struggling-pay-tv-group-20201204-p56km1.html

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-received-blank-cheque-approach-for-foxtel-stake-20201127-p56ijt.html

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU

[tqtq]

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/foxtel-s-secret-bid-adds-to-intrigue-at-struggling-pay-tv-group-20201204-p56km1.html

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/news-corp-received-blank-cheque-approach-for-foxtel-stake-20201127-p56ijt.html


Now that’s both interesting and exciting news! Nice find.

[mistaTea]

Looks to be a few ballheads in this Maori All Black team.

[Dlownz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364535
Sky are not losing discovery. Which is a great confirmation.
Next hbo rights. Hbo max is performing poorly overseas so I'm sure is in there best interest to stay with sky

[Ogg]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364535
Sky are not losing discovery. Which is a great confirmation.
Next hbo rights. Hbo max is performing poorly overseas so I'm sure is in there best interest to stay with sky

Goodbye takeover...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TallVerifiableIggypops-max-1mb.gif

[tqtq]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/364535
Sky are not losing discovery. Which is a great confirmation.
Next hbo rights. Hbo max is performing poorly overseas so I'm sure is in there best interest to stay with sky

Good to see the new CEO hard at work! Two thumbs up.

[Ogg]

Infratil announced they are selling out of Tilt Renewables and will be cashed up again.

Hello takeover....

[tqtq]

Goodbye takeover...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TallVerifiableIggypops-max-1mb.gif

I wonder if Quadrant Private Equity will be sniffing around recently offloading QScan?
Private equity will surely be circling at the current SP given that Covid investment opportunities are drying up.

[mistaTea]

Good to see the new CEO hard at work! Two thumbs up.

Excellent news. Great to see Sky is maintaining important partnerships. Especially one that has been going for as long as the one with Discovery.

[tqtq]

Excellent news. Great to see Sky is maintaining important partnerships. Especially one that has been going for as long as the one with Discovery.

Yes, it's very reassuring news and a very good sign / signal overall. It confirms to content companies (even one that is now a local competitor of sorts) that Sky is the top local premium content aggregator in New Zealand, and that it's smarter to do a deal (at a nice premium I'm sure) that to try and go it alone in a market of ~5 million. Time to buy more shares in Sky!

[tqtq]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/new-sky-tv-discovery-deal-paves-way-for-discovery-launch-in-nz/XULQ2NAICA7FI4ST2OXYJGANHI/

[Getty]

Goodbye takeover...

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/TallVerifiableIggypops-max-1mb.gif

that bloke didnt wear his parachute.
I hope he landed on a condominium.

[airedale]

SKT showing more strength on the ASX.

[airedale]

that bloke didnt wear his parachute.
I hope he landed on a condominium.


So that is what Ogg looks like.:)

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/tvnzs-latest-thinking-on-paid-content/KMUHMNZTD57GUKPGAXGJRQXCYQ/

Absolutely hilarious that Chris Keall just can't help himself... a non-story about TVNZ, and at the end he has to worm in a way to give Sky TV a kick in the balls.

[mistaTea]

Infratil is about to be taken over?

MAYBE SKY TV IS BUYING IFT!!!

[JSwan]

Infratil is about to be taken over?

MAYBE SKY TV IS BUYING IFT!!!

SKT going to issue another 30 billion SKT shares to buy IFT?! Then get blocked by ComCom and SKT share price becomes 0.01c :(

[Alpha]

Trust power been left out... energy rumour ?

[Ogg]

Just lol at Infratil being taken over


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

I'm so farking done with all this. I an't posting in this thread ever again...

https://i.imgur.com/4EHG0FT.gif

[Rawz]

Long time reader, first time poster. Just started investing in March this year during the crash.
Today the chorus man is at my house installing fibre to go along with my new Spark sport package. And sky is gone, for the first time in my life. Happy to see it gone to be honest. All those years paying $50-$80 while watching them give away free stuff for new people signing up. Really annoying, they never looked after their customers and now its like i want to see them fail. That feeling is mutual with a lot of my mates. Anyways- it will be very interesting to see their subscriber numbers now that the rugby has finished. I am guessing there are a lot of people out there that have turned off their sky for at least the summer, some will turn it back on come winter, but a lot wont.

The future is netflix, amazon, disney+, Spark etc etc.

Just my 2 cents. Love reading all the posts. Cheers.

[GR8DAY]

.....SKY now in a very good set of (female) hands.......IMHO we will now finally get to see some positive announcements on a fairly regular basis. Watch this space, you read it here first. (i think) GLTAH

[mistaTea]

https://news.sky.com/story/virgin-media-and-o2-16331bn-merger-under-investigation-by-watchdog-12157810

Just not easy to get these mergers over the line...

[nztx]

This thread should be renamed 'Did you see the latest large piranha alleged to have been swimming past a SKY window' ;)

[ados_nz]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/123654030/sky-tvs-new-boss-sets-bbq-test-for-company-pride-and-happiness

New CEO seems good with the media

[Quantitative Easing]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/123654030/sky-tvs-new-boss-sets-bbq-test-for-company-pride-and-happiness

New CEO seems good with the media

Does she fly up from Nelson every week? That doesn't seem carbon neutral....Sky seem a bit behind times on their environmental sustainability.

[mistaTea]

Does she fly up from Nelson every week? That doesn't seem carbon neutral....Sky seem a bit behind times on their environmental sustainability.

Hey, at least she is doing her part to keep AIR NZ in business!

[Soolaimon]

For what it's worth.... we had sky installed in a new house here in the Far North and I asked the install man if he was very busy. Reply was that there were not enough hours in the day and he was booked up till xmas with installs. He is not involved in decoder hand ins so couldn't comment.

[mistaTea]

For what it's worth.... we had sky installed in a new house here in the Far North and I asked the install man if he was very busy. Reply was that there were not enough hours in the day and he was booked up till xmas with installs. He is not involved in decoder hand ins so couldn't comment.

That does not surprise me at all.

I have previously mentioned how I live in a new development 'Green Field' area. We only have fibre in this area - a suburb designed for streaming, so you would not expect to see very many satellite dishes around given the notion: NETFLIX: Good! SKY: Bad!

Well, missusTea and I like to take young masterTea out for walks on nice evenings, taking different routes each time. Even though everyone has fibre, I am noticing a lot more satellite dishes on roofs these days. Each time I go out I notice houses with satellite dishes recently installed.

I assume Sky is doing a strong New Business drive with some competitive offers...after all, you can stream Sky TV with Vodafone TV and save $15/month already (as you don't pay a MySky fee, and can pick and drop packages each month as there is no contract term).
Note: downside of VTV us that it is not as 'live' as satellite, and also there are some channels that, annoyingly, you are not able to record. So it isn't all roses.

Using my suburb as just one example, between the increasing number of satellite dishes I can see, plus the Vodafone Broadband customers who will have VTV (I think Vodafone just send one out these days if you take a 12 month contract, Freeview comes out of the box and then it is up to you if you want to subscribe to more Sky channels)...and then the rest that will have NEON and/or Sky Sport NOW...it seems to me that Sky's penetration into households continues to deepen significantly.

[Dlownz]

For what it's worth.... we had sky installed in a new house here in the Far North and I asked the install man if he was very busy. Reply was that there were not enough hours in the day and he was booked up till xmas with installs. He is not involved in decoder hand ins so couldn't comment.
Yip constant hearing as well.
I'm looking forward to febs announment

[TideMan]

Now that rugby is finished, I rang Sky to cancel my subscription, but the nice lady persuaded me to just put it on hold - I keep the Sky box and can use it to access free-to-air TV.
She reckoned that in Feb, I can re-instate my sub with whatever deal is going then. This year it was $28 per mo for just sport.
We'll see if this works..............

[Entrep]

Now that rugby is finished, I rang Sky to cancel my subscription, but the nice lady persuaded me to just put it on hold - I keep the Sky box and can use it to access free-to-air TV..

For freeeeee?

[TideMan]

For freeeeee?

Yes, AFAIK.

[Rawz]

Now that rugby is finished, I rang Sky to cancel my subscription, but the nice lady persuaded me to just put it on hold - I keep the Sky box and can use it to access free-to-air TV.
She reckoned that in Feb, I can re-instate my sub with whatever deal is going then. This year it was $28 per mo for just sport.
We'll see if this works..............

That's interesting. I wonder if they would still count you as a subscriber in their next numbers announcement. Thus fudging the numbers.

[mistaTea]

That's interesting. I wonder if they would still count you as a subscriber in their next numbers announcement. Thus fudging the numbers.

I don't think they would count him as a subscriber given he is no longer subscribing to any Sky bundles.

Even if they did, customers paying $0 per month would only serve to lower the ARPU figure which would not help their cause.

Sky are honest about their numbers. Don't forget Lightbox used to tout 300K+ as the number of subs they had. When Sky took over that number was slashed significantly as only maybe a third of them were actually paying subscribers.

[airedale]

TVNZ on Demand are showing "The Rise of the Murdoch Dynasty". I don't suppose it will be shown on Sky TV. It shows a very unflattering picture of the mogul who stops at nothing to gain power and influence over politicians, presidents, ordinary voters and prime ministers through the power of his newspapers and TV and radio stations. His editors of course all toe the party line, while influencing the outcome that Rupert decides will be best for his empire.

[silu]

TVNZ on Demand are showing "The Rise of the Murdoch Dynasty". I don't suppose it will be shown on Sky TV. It shows a very unflattering picture of the mogul who stops at nothing to gain power and influence over politicians, presidents, ordinary voters and prime ministers through the power of his newspapers and TV and radio stations. His editors of course all toe the party line, while influencing the outcome that Rupert decides will be best for his empire.

I can't tell you how lucky we are in NZ not to have Murdoch in our media landscape. I like how our discourse on politics is mostly centric and boring.

[Dlownz]

Sky wins back Wimbledon from TVNZ and Spark
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12409747
Next step premier league

[ba9]

And hopefully adds F1 too :)

[Dlownz]

And hopefully adds F1 too :)
Those two gone might spell the end of spark sport.

[DownTownJr]

Small steps to take back from Spark, well done Sky.

Was talking with a friend last night, he was complaining about having to subscribe to both Sky and Spark sport and how he misses when Sky was the dog on top... Well, Sky is slowly turning that way again and for the better IMO.

[peat]

yes! Wimbledon is a massive sporting event on the calendar. A real drawcard!

[nztx]

No pre-Christmas takeover rumours yet ?

Has Ogg gone on holiday already ? ;)

[tqtq]

No pre-Christmas takeover rumours yet ?

Has Ogg gone on holiday already ? ;)

I wonder if Ogg's still holding?

[airedale]

He could be in talks with Rupert Murdoch.

[Alpha]

Pretty sure he is Marko

[Almost-confused]

Vocus confirmed as broadband provider

https://www.sky.co.nz/-/vocus-as-key-partner-for-sky-broadband

[Dlownz]

Vocus confirmed as broadband provider

https://www.sky.co.nz/-/vocus-as-key-partner-for-sky-broadband
Ah. I thought they were dealing with chorus direct. Well I've been with vocus for many years so I expect when I change the only difference will be better hardware by the sounds of it. Good move

[mistaTea]

Ah. I thought they were dealing with chorus direct. Well I've been with vocus for many years so I expect when I change the only difference will be better hardware by the sounds of it. Good move

Natural fit for a merger?

Ogg? We need your guidance.

[Dlownz]

Enough of the merger talk.

[winner69]

I see our Derek is going to make a fortune out of Goodwood Capital

[airedale]

Any further links to that story, Winner.

[whatsup]

Any further links to that story, Winner.

refer GWC,

[tqtq]

DJ New Zealand Companies Could Be Ripe for Takeovers in 2021 -- Market Talk
17 Dec 2020 10:50:03
2350 GMT - Takeover offers for New Zealand's listed companies could increase in 2021 after only two transactions this year, says Forsyth Barr, citing cheap debt, cashed-up private equity players and greater tolerance for risk among sovereign wealth funds. The brokerage has identified 20 companies that it sees as the most likely targets and a top-10 subset includes locally well-known names such as a2 Milk, Infratil and Kathmandu as well as struggling Gentrack and Sky Network Television. Several companies also have opportunities to sell noncore businesses or to sell and leaseback assets, Forsyth Barr says. That includes telco Spark, which could sell and leaseback infrastructure such as data centres, cell towers, and telco exchanges. (stephen.wright@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2020 18:50 ET (23:50 GMT

[tqtq]

And also: https://stockhead.com.au/news/these-are-the-worst-stocks-of-2020/

[airedale]

And also: https://stockhead.com.au/news/these-are-the-worst-stocks-of-2020/


It brings to mind the book and strategy based on the book "The Dogs Of The Dow". Can't remember the author but he demonstrated a profit using last year's dogs to invest in this year.

[winner69]

It brings to mind the book and strategy based on the book "The Dogs Of The Dow". Can't remember the author but he demonstrated a profit using last year's dogs to invest in this year.

Folklore has this years worst performers as next years winners ...often works

Dogs of the Dow appears to take the stocks with highest dividend yields and invest in those .....theory being high dividend yields are a result of suppressed share prices so if it works the share price will increase and you’ll also get a decent divie.

Worst performers on NZX50 last year were SKT VGL KMD SML and AIR

[mistaTea]

Here is the game plan...though I need my boy Ogg to come in and verify it...

Sky declare a surprise dividend of 1.5c per share in the HY result , with guidance that we get another 1.5c at FY provided things don’t deteriorate unexpectedly. That would be about $50M in total dividends next year... or ~66% of available projected underlying Owner Earnings.

The Market is pleased and Sky’s SP rises to 25c...

Then Discovery come in and offer to take Sky off our hands for 35c. Broadband has been rolled out, and OSB sold so now is the time. Gaining approval from the authorities would just be a formality...

But wait, another player comes in (Comcast?) and offers 40c! The tussle begins, with Discovery making the final successful bid for 45c. They just have to get Sky and merge it with TV3!

All ends well. Sky is in safe hands, and missusTea lets mistaTea back into the bedroom...

[Ogg]

Here is the game plan...though I need my boy Ogg to come in and verify it...

Sky declare a surprise dividend of 1.5c per share in the HY result , with guidance that we get another 1.5c at FY provided things don’t deteriorate unexpectedly. That would be about $50M in total dividends next year... or ~66% of available projected underlying Owner Earnings.

The Market is pleased and Sky’s SP rises to 25c...

Then Discovery come in and offer to take Sky off our hands for 35c. Broadband has been rolled out, and OSB sold so now is the time. Gaining approval from the authorities would just be a formality...

But wait, another player comes in (Comcast?) and offers 40c! The tussle begins, with Discovery making the final successful bid for 45c. They just have to get Sky and merge it with TV3!

All ends well. Sky is in safe hands, and missusTea lets mistaTea back into the bedroom...

Go ahead Yul Tea. You go get your palace...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvzpuAa1QVs

[Longhaul]

Once Sky has the new box, why would it not partner with Netflix, Amazon, Disney+ etc.

If it makes sense in the UK, wouldn't it also make sense here?

https://www.theguardian.com/media/2020/dec/14/sky-to-make-amazon-prime-video-available-to-subscribers-in-europe

[Ogg]

makes sense




https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Dlownz]

Oh god. Takeover talks back.
No divi In the half year.
We will have to wait for the full year.
Announcing a divi or future divi would immediately double the share price similar to NZME

[mistaTea]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

God we have missed you.

[mistaTea]

Oh god. Takeover talks back.
No divi In the half year.
We will have to wait for the full year.
Announcing a divi or future divi would immediately double the share price similar to NZME

Earnings guidance has been increased...perhaps an opportunity to reward shareholders earlier than anticipated...

Maybe 1c/share divvy as an early HY present with a promise of up to another 2c per share in the FY results if all goes well...

[Dlownz]

After just preforming a capital raising which diluted shareholders substantially. How would that look.

[mistaTea]

After just preforming a capital raising which diluted shareholders substantially. How would that look.

It would look just fine if it significantly lifts the SP from where it is now.

They are planning to pay one in the second half of next year. This would just be an early present after lifting guidance.

Light at the end of the tunnel given the terrible year 2020 turned out to be for Sky, in terms of market valuation.

[jimdog31]

Earnings guidance has been increased...perhaps an opportunity to reward shareholders earlier than anticipated...

Maybe 1c/share divvy as an early HY present with a promise of up to another 2c per share in the FY results if all goes well...

Keep talking dirty to me.... is 3c total divvy a stab in the dark or based on what % of the earnings guidance ?

[mistaTea]

Keep talking dirty to me.... is 3c total divvy a stab in the dark or based on what % of the earnings guidance ?

It’s the absolute maximum I think they would pay out.

CAPEX is estimated to be $45M. If you add in the bit of the depreciation charge that goes over and above the CAPEX spend you will arrive at underlying ‘Owner Earnings’ of $70M-$80M.

GAAP earnings significantly understates Sky’s real earning power.

So 3c per share divvy would be a touch over $50M payout - about 70% of the midway point estimate of Owner Earnings. The remaining $25M is retained earnings to continue investing.

They may not pay out 3c in total though - how much they pay out will be determined by underlying earnings as well as how much capital they need to retain for growth projects.

But a 70% payout ratio is not completely ridiculous either...the SP would increase significantly too I imagine.

[Dlownz]

A 1 cent payout would be equivalent to just over 5% to share price. So 2cents would be almost 12%. That would easily push the share price up to 30 cents but it still wont happen till the end of the year. It is nice to now being able to say end of the year and not next year.

[mistaTea]

A 1 cent payout would be equivalent to just over 5% to share price. So 2cents would be almost 12%. That would easily push the share price up to 30 cents but it still wont happen till the end of the year. It is nice to now being able to say end of the year and not next year.

And 2 cents is probably more realistic as they do have to continue to be prudent with their capital management...

[mistaTea]

DJ New Zealand Companies Could Be Ripe for Takeovers in 2021 -- Market Talk
17 Dec 2020 10:50:03
2350 GMT - Takeover offers for New Zealand's listed companies could increase in 2021 after only two transactions this year, says Forsyth Barr, citing cheap debt, cashed-up private equity players and greater tolerance for risk among sovereign wealth funds. The brokerage has identified 20 companies that it sees as the most likely targets and a top-10 subset includes locally well-known names such as a2 Milk, Infratil and Kathmandu as well as struggling Gentrack and Sky Network Television. Several companies also have opportunities to sell noncore businesses or to sell and leaseback assets, Forsyth Barr says. That includes telco Spark, which could sell and leaseback infrastructure such as data centres, cell towers, and telco exchanges. (stephen.wright@wsj.com)
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
December 16, 2020 18:50 ET (23:50 GMT

Not to bang on about takeover conspiracy theories...

But I do actually agree that Sky is much more likely to be taken out in 2021 than it was last year.

Now that there is light at the end of the tunnel for COVID, there are a lot of cashed up institutions and funds looking for bargains.
Plus other companies like Discovery that have loads of money and access to cheap capital.

Even a low EBITDA multiple of 4 for Sky would be $600M or 35c/share.
For The Board to recommend anything, they have to justify the takeover offer based on reality (not just that the offer is x% above the last closing SP).

Anyway, this is not a prediction of a takeover as such - just pointing out that I think the odds of that happening have increased somewhat, and if it does happen - depending on how many interested parties there are I think shareholders will do just fine.

[Dlownz]

If and when sky announce a dividend it pushes up the share price regardless.
35 cents a share would be under selling it.

[mistaTea]

If and when sky announce a dividend it pushes up the share price regardless.
35 cents a share would be under selling it.

I agree with you.

35c would be the absolute lowest the board could even consider recommending in my view.

I am not convinced that 35c would get enough support from shareholders, but it could be a starting point to put the business ‘in play’.

[Dlownz]

I agree with you.
No
35c would be the absolute lowest the board could even consider recommending in my view.

I am not convinced that 35c would get enough support from shareholders, but it could be a starting point to put the business ‘in play’.

I'm not even sure 50cents would get through. For the record I know of 4 people just in my small circle wanting sky broadband (obviously if the deals are good). They all have sky

[mistaTea]

I'm not even sure 50cents would get through.

What makes you think that?

I would have thought that, given where we are today, anything in the mid 30’s is plausible and anything in the 40’s would be a slam dunk for the buyer.

[Dlownz]

End of 2019 I was thinking sky would get back to 2.00 by the end of 2021 if they restarted there dividends. 1.6billion shares now so just a few more now since then 🤣.
Its my awesome calculating skills that come up with 50cents. 😂

[mistaTea]

End of 2019 I was thinking sky would get back to 2.00 by the end of 2021 if they restarted there dividends. 1.6billion shares now so just a few more now since then 🤣.
Its my awesome calculating skills that come up with 50cents. 😂

50c would be just under 6 times EBITDA. Sky was valued at approx 7 times EBITDA when attempting the Vodafone merger.

But that was then, and this is now.

I would think an EBITDA of 5 would be the best you could hope for in a multi-bid scenario. That would be 43c/share.

4 times EBITDA would probably nail it if there was only one interested buyer - 34c/share.

I cannot see The Board recommending anything lower than that. It would be a scandal.

[Dlownz]

Fair call. Only time will tell. Are you still holding all your shares?

[mistaTea]

Fair call. Only time will tell. Are you still holding all your shares?

Indeed

And yes, plus I bought some more recently.

Now holding 2M shares and happy to do so indefinitely.

[Dlownz]

What's your break even point now then. Mine in sitting even at 16.1. It was looking healthy there for a while. I'm looking forward to the HY. Hoping more good news. But arnt we all. I'm sitting on a bit over 300k shares

[mistaTea]

What's your break even point now then. Mine in sitting even at 16.1. It was looking healthy there for a while. I'm looking forward to the HY. Hoping more good news. But arnt we all. I'm sitting on a bit over 300k shares

Break even for me is 29c.

[jimdog31]

Indeed

And yes, plus I bought some more recently.

Now holding 2M shares and happy to do so indefinitely.

Thatll be why missustea isnt letting you in the bedroom!

Good to see you play the long game pal, shell be over the moon if any of the scenarios above come off.

When are they gonna announce this broadband launch?! surely thatl see a couple of cents lift

[Dlownz]

I can see why you've invested more then to get that breakeven down. I actually thought you might have been lower than

[Baa_Baa]

Really sad substantial shareholders hope for a buyout or dividends sub $1 instead of a company share purchase and a recovery to $6-7. Shows how desperate it gets when the company is so disliked. Sky really do need to show they have a future, even substantial shareholders have essentially deserted them.

[Dlownz]

Really sad substantial shareholders hope for a buyout or dividends sub $1 instead of a company share purchase and a recovery to $6-7. Shows how desperate it gets when the company is so disliked. Sky really do need to show they have a future, even substantial shareholders have essentially deserted them.

Sky do have a future baabaa the direction they are heading is on track. I myself do not want a buyout as I see the potential sky still has in this now crowded market. The only reason I see a dividend being a good thing resuming is it will certainly lift the share price similar to what we saw with NZME.
Get it out of this now holding pattern and alow it to crawl out of this darkness its been stuck in. Sky technicians are still run off the feet at the mo, people are waiting for sky broadband, I basically only watch neon now as I can't seem to find anything I want to watch on Netflix in fact even Disney is better than Netflix.
Good Times ahead

[Entrep]

Really sad substantial shareholders hope for a buyout or dividends sub $1 instead of a company share purchase and a recovery to $6-7. Shows how desperate it gets when the company is so disliked. Sky really do need to show they have a future, even substantial shareholders have essentially deserted them.

Of course there's also the matter of $6 to 16c being a 97.5% loss while 16c to $6 is a 3,650% gain.

[mistaTea]

Also should add...as I have repeatedly said in earlier posts...I am not holding shares in Sky praying for a takeover.

I like the business and the future prospects and continue to be happy to hold indefinitely

I am just saying that I agree that IF A TAKEOVER IS TO HAPPEN...it is much more likely to happen in 2021 than it was last year (when there was huge speculation on this forum that a takeover was imminent). And so long as the SP remains so low relative to Earning Power, speculation as to whether or not Sky becomes the next NZX victim to a buyout is bound to continue.

I look forward to the HY results and launch of Sky Broadband. When they launch a broadband - NEON - Sky Sport NOW bundle I will def be looking to switch from Spark. I currently pay $125/month for 1Gbps + NETFLIX 4K + NEON.

Even if I subtract the NETFLIX 4K I am still effectively paying Spark a little over $100/month for 1Gbps broadband and a NEON Sub.

The NEON sub costs Spark about $10 (they give it to me at cost pretty much).

So their broadband charge is effectively a little over $90/month.

Chorus only charge Spark $56/month after they dropped their rates.

And they say Sky is a rip.

I reckon Sky could offer me a broadband - NEON sub for $79.99 per month and still make money on both the broadband and NEON components.

I also almost exclusively watch NEON now. The content on NEON is significantly better than most of what I see available on NETFLIX imo.

[mistaTea]

Really sad substantial shareholders hope for a buyout or dividends sub $1 instead of a company share purchase and a recovery to $6-7. Shows how desperate it gets when the company is so disliked. Sky really do need to show they have a future, even substantial shareholders have essentially deserted them.

Agree a buyback would be even better than a divvy at these prices.

Recover to $6 a share? That would make Sky a $10B company and we would be worth $1.3B more than Spark.

It would take a lot of doing! 😅

[kyanar]

Agree a buyback would be even better than a divvy at these prices.

Recover to $6 a share? That would make Sky a $10B company and we would be worth $1.3B more than Spark.

It would take a lot of doing! 

Yes, but when you think about it - what is Spark really these days? They own a mobile network, resell broadband, aggregate content rights, and have a major stake in the Southern Cross Cable along with Verizon, Optus, and Telstra.

Sky, once they've launched their broadband plans, will operate a nationwide satellite (and presumably also fibre multicast) network, aggregate rights, resell broadband, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them launch resold mobile plans at some point. Given the number of partnerships they've forged, I can see a pretty solid earnings potential in the future.

[ados_nz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123870836/ageing-sky-tv-trucks-imperil-sports-broadcasts

[airedale]

Recover to $6, I think that may be a pipe dream considering the massive dilution we have had last year. On the other hand it could be achieved by a large enough consolidation;), or a long enough wait for a number of years:eek2:

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123870836/ageing-sky-tv-trucks-imperil-sports-broadcasts

As it has been pointed out before - if Comcom block the deal then Sky are just going to dump the trucks on the side of the road and do a supply deal with NEP anyway.

The only difference is a bunch if OSB staff will get the sack and have to hope NEP will give them a job after (even though they are not obliged to). But, either way, Sky are going to avoid the $50M CAPEX.

So hopefully Comcom are reasonable in this instance. God knows they tend to give Sky a tough time. Their job is to assess competition concerns which is fair enough, but I think they need to apply a dose of pragmatism to their decision.

[Ogg]

Truck for sale
Average condition
$500 ono
Call or text 0800 759 759

https://i.imgur.com/VhHW0K2.jpg

[Getty]

Is that photo a portent to what the share price is going to do?
Does HD stand for heavy demolition?
They need to change the colour scheme, it blends in with the Sky.

[Dlownz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123870836/ageing-sky-tv-trucks-imperil-sports-broadcasts

Its a good move by sky to release this article. It puts more pressure on comcom to stop the mucking around with the sale. Either let the sale go through or we shut it down anyway and carry on with our plan.

[mistaTea]

Its a good move by sky to release this article. It puts more pressure on comcom to stop the mucking around with the sale. Either let the sale go through or we shut it down anyway and carry on with our plan.

Agreed. It is just nuts that it should take so long to assess this Piss Willy deal. It just further highlights to me how out of touch the Comcom are when it comes to this industry.

If it were up to them they would continually cripple Sky.

Fortunately, if they do reject the deal, our Plan B is almost as good as Plan A for Sky shareholders. Not good for OSB staff though - so I hope for their sakes the Comcom stop faffing around making mountains out of molehills and get on with it.

[mfd]

As it has been pointed out before - if Comcom block the deal then Sky are just going to dump the trucks on the side of the road and do a supply deal with NEP anyway.

The only difference is a bunch if OSB staff will get the sack and have to hope NEP will give them a job after (even though they are not obliged to). But, either way, Sky are going to avoid the $50M CAPEX.

So hopefully Comcom are reasonable in this instance. God knows they tend to give Sky a tough time. Their job is to assess competition concerns which is fair enough, but I think they need to apply a dose of pragmatism to their decision.

If you think Sky are capable of paying ~$50 million in dividends in the next year, why would they not be capable of putting up $50 million for a productive investment over the next few years? Are NEP chumps?

[mistaTea]

If you think Sky are capable of paying ~$50 million in dividends in the next year, why would they not be capable of putting up $50 million for a productive investment over the next few years? Are NEP chumps?

Nobody has ever said that Sky is not CAPABLE of paying the $50M to upgrade their trucks dude.

It is just not a good use of shareholder money, especially given NEP has entered the market. Sky is trying to reposition itself as a less capital intensive business so that it can slim down and be able to compete into the future.

[Dlownz]

Nobody has ever said that Sky is not CAPABLE of paying the $50M to upgrade their trucks dude.

It is just not a good use of shareholder money, especially given NEP has entered the market. Sky is trying to reposition itself as a less capital intensive business so that it can slim down and be able to compete into the future.
Agreed. Less hands on. less costs.
If I can't do a job around the house to a level I deem good enough I'll pay someone to do the faster and better job. Then I can't put my energy into something else more productive.

[winner69]

When the Board needed to appoint a new CEO I hope they didn’t came up with Sophie’s as a ‘safe’ choice - like ‘who is least likely to fail?’ rather than taking a risk hiring somebody fresh who could take Sky to new heights.

They took a ‘risk’ with Martin and it didn’t play out well.....maybe SKY have a weak Board not prepared to risk their own reputations and used the old ‘accelerated succession planning’ trick as the excuse to take the easy option.

I fear Sophie will use Martin’s playbook with a decent amount of cost cutting thrown in as well .....and that won’t lead to a good long term outcome for SKY

[steveb]

Can you imagine any of the board going for a job interview,first question:-
" were you on the board of sky when the shareprice went from $6.00 to 15c?" second question."and what do you think you have to offer us"
I don't think any of the board have any reputations left,but wouldn't it be great to be proven wrong!

[mistaTea]

Clearly the market has not reacted favourably to any of the moves that Martin made.

We can nitpick on individual decisions, but on the whole I think Martin and The Board made the only reasonable decisions possible for a company in Sky’s position.

In fact, most of the things they did were in line with what the market and the analysts were saying sky should be doing to transition to streaming etc.

Yet the SP continues to languish.

Purchases like rugby pass haven’t panned out (COVID could not be predicted), but on the whole - what else could or should they have done if the strategy to date is no good?

Genuine question.

[steveb]

I think they should have done what Ogg was predicting looking for a cashed up partner to merge with,but usually that does not bring job security for the board members.Just look at STU the fat cats are still there collecting their dues despite rejecting a $2.00 per share offer

[mistaTea]

I think they should have done what Ogg was predicting looking for a cashed up partner to merge with,but usually that does not bring job security for the board members.Just look at STU the fat cats are still there collecting their dues despite rejecting a $2.00 per share offer

I don’t think merely “find someone to buy us” is a strategy any Board could support.

If a takeover attempt occurs, and the offer price is compelling then so be it.

But that cannot be Plan A for a company with large FCF, large customer base and the ability to transform itself.

[nztx]

I think they should have done what Ogg was predicting looking for a cashed up partner to merge with,but usually that does not bring job security for the board members.Just look at STU the fat cats are still there collecting their dues despite rejecting a $2.00 per share offer


Good points on STU there too .. ;)

[dompf]

I don’t think merely “find someone to buy us” is a strategy any Board could support.

If a takeover attempt occurs, and the offer price is compelling then so be it.

But that cannot be Plan A for a company with large FCF, large customer base and the ability to transform itself.

sky is making some cash at the moment; wonder what they will do with it; reintroduction of their dividend would make logical sense but I wonder if they are looking at acquiring something; company has no debt realistically with cap raise to pay off bond so it would be interesting if they would potentially acquire something as they must have some cash burning in their accounts.

the banks already secured their capital for awhile on favourable terms; new leadership now; and it will be interesting to see what they come up with.

[mistaTea]

sky is making some cash at the moment; wonder what they will do with it; reintroduction of their dividend would make logical sense but I wonder if they are looking at acquiring something; company has no debt realistically with cap raise to pay off bond so it would be interesting if they would potentially acquire something as they must have some cash burning in their accounts.

the banks already secured their capital for awhile on favourable terms; new leadership now; and it will be interesting to see what they come up with.

Yes, the HY results are due in about 5 weeks. Will be very interesting to see what the new CEO has to say.

It is true that sometimes a sudden CEO change can be a catalyst for some kind of event.

What that event might be is anyone’s guess.

[steveb]

I don’t think merely “find someone to buy us” is a strategy any Board could support.

If a takeover attempt occurs, and the offer price is compelling then so be it.

But that cannot be Plan A for a company with large FCF, large customer base and the ability to transform itself.

A merger is a tad different from a takeover,a merger in effect can stop a takeover in it's track,and save a few reputations of board members.

[Snow Leopard]

With the drop today I appear to have become the holder of a few more SKT shares :scared:.

[winner69]

Derek finally packs a sad

Been a good easy job for him over 7 years ......Directors fees probably about a million plus or minus a bit

He shall be missed they say :scared:;):mad ;:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/365953/338517.pdf

[mistaTea]

Derek finally packs a sad

Been a good lurk for him over 7 years ......Directors fees probably about a million plus or minus a bit

He shall be missed they say :scared:;):mad ;:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/365953/338517.pdf

SP should rocket up to 30c today on the back of this news you reckon?

[RTM]

Derek finally packs a sad

Been a good lurk for him over 7 years ......Directors fees probably about a million plus or minus a bit

He shall be missed they say :scared:;):mad ;:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/365953/338517.pdf

Yes. Do you think Ogg or MrT for a replacement ? Should be a good contest.

[winner69]

Yes. Do you think Ogg or MrT for a replacement ? Should be a good contest.

Heavens forbid ...no way