SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[mistaTea]

Heavens forbid ...no way

But, but...my diagram...

[winner69]

What was SKT markey cap when Derek was appointed

Probably seen a billion or so of value disappear?

[Balance]

What was SKT markey cap when Derek was appointed

Probably seen a billion or so of value disappear?

He would argue that SKT would be even more broke but for his expertise & directorship.

Scary thing is that he is probably right!

[biker]

Bye Bye Derek. Dead wood I would imagine, and forced out. Reading the announcement “ brought a ‘perspective’ around digital transformation, people and culture to the Board” is not exactly a ringing endorsement.
Lots of passion and verbiage ( as in much of his enterprise) but not much else.

[KJMLimited]

I agree, won't be missed. Only held 17,584 shares too according to the 2020 annual report (correct me if I am wrong) but was paid $117K per annum. That's quite a statement in itself.

[Getty]

Truck for sale
Average condition
$500 ono
Call or text 0800 759 759

https://i.imgur.com/VhHW0K2.jpg

Was Derek at the wheel?

[Ogg]

Derek finally packs a sad

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/365953/338517.pdf

Free at last


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpSZ1OLQeKY

[Almost-confused]

Thank God Derek is gone. What a waste of space

[mistaTea]

Thank God Derek is gone. What a waste of space

The shares have rocketed up’ to 16.1c on the back of the news!!

[Balance]

The shares of ‘rocketed up’ to 16.1c on the back of the news!!

Imo, Sky has lost a very valuable director.

They just did not know how to tap into Derek's real value - his uncanny ability to make bad decisions. So they should have done the exact opposite of whatever he proposed or supported. Sp would be $10 today if thy had done that. :t_up:

[biker]

Hahaha. Excellent reasoning and analysis.

[Balance]

Hahaha. Excellent reasoning and analysis.

Sp down today.

Maybe Sky should have kept Derek on?

[stoploss]

Sp down today.

Maybe Sky should have kept Derek on?

Think that will be Derek liquidating his extensive position ..........

[Ogg]

Sp down today.

Maybe Sky should have kept Derek on?

He doesn't step down until Friday of next week. The curse remains until then.

[Balance]

He doesn't step down until Friday of next week. The curse remains until then.

Haha - reckon they should have given him a few more shares in lieu of $$$ directors’ fees to leave early?

Love it! :D

[waikare]

We have quite a few believers, SKT is in 9th place in the NZ Stock Picking Comp for 2021.

[winner69]

A bit of warm fuzzy PR stuff in The Herald

Wouldn’t make think she’s amazing this Sophie so I must buy heaps of SKT shares because she’s going to fix them up.

Leading Questions: New Sky CEO Sophie Moloney on the year ahead
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12412940

[Shareguy]

How many sky shares does she own....a large purchase would be good for the market.. No disclosure is bad news.

[winner69]

How many sky shares does she own....a large purchase would be good for the market.. No disclosure is bad news.

She got 908,333 at the last cap raise (12 cents)

Would her buying more now really move the share price?

[Shareguy]

By all accounts she has been involved in the key decisions, so buying more shares after getting the top job shows confidence in the business and her ability to turn it around. I think that’s been a issue for sky where the directors and past ceo had very little skin in the game. I for one look very closely at company’s where the ceo especially has a large holding. For me a large purchase would give investors confidence . So yes I do think it would be positive for the share price. At the end of the day if the directors and senior management are not prepared to put decent money into the company then why would investors.

[Balance]

By all accounts she has been involved in the key decisions, so buying more shares after getting the top job shows confidence in the business and her ability to turn it around. I think that’s been a issue for sky where the directors and past ceo had very little skin in the game. I for one look very closely at company’s where the ceo especially has a large holding. For me a large purchase would give investors confidence . So yes I do think it would be positive for the share price. At the end of the day if the directors and senior management are not prepared to put decent money into the company then why would investors.

Exactly - Derek being a good case in point.

7 years in the job, taking in hundreds of thousands of $$$ in director fees (plus other benefits) and he owns 17,584 shares.

Investors would have done well to follow his example.

[winner69]

Read the other day that insider selling on the Russell 2000 has been steadily increasing recently and has reached near record highs

Maybe a crash is coming

[airedale]

She got 908,333 at the last cap raise (12 cents)

Would her buying more now really move the share price?

She would have to buy a lot more {perhaps more than the ST posters} to really make an impression, considering the number of shares on issue.

[nztx]

Read the other day that insider selling on the Russell 2000 has been steadily increasing recently and has reached near record highs

Maybe a crash is coming

Why would a crash be thought to be coming when there still many many loose billions to flow into
everyone's hands from low paying Bank deposits maturing & Bonus Bonds Trust winding up - all
likely to be looking for more respectable homes paying better than current bank low ball rates .. ? ;)

Still much the same or reduced quantities Script in 'investable companies 'out there -- but a huge amount
more loose dough potentially going to be chasing them .. IMO

Something really bad would have to happen to effectively rip the seat out of the market badly ? ;)

[nztx]

Sure, we now have a few Hedge Vulture funds & Unprincipled Fund Managers overseas screaming some SP's
are far to high now, which they have conveniently forward sold bigtime hoping to talk disaster for a huge windfall ;)

[winner69]

Why would a crash be thought to be coming when there still many many loose billions to flow into
everyone's hands from low paying Bank deposits maturing & Bonus Bonds Trust winding up - all
likely to be looking for more respectable homes paying better than current bank low ball rates .. ? ;)

Still much the same or reduced quantities Script in 'investable companies 'out there -- but a huge amount
more loose dough potentially going to be chasing them .. IMO

Something really bad would have to happen to effectively rip the seat out of the market badly ? ;)

But as I said in the US insiders are selling (at a greater rate than buying) .....expectations of lower profits / lower share prices.

Yes many punters have cash to move into equities .....but for every buyer there’s a seller ....and whist does the seller do with the cash?

Saw today that global stock mkt cap has now topped 120% of global GDP. In bygone days Buffett said that’s alarming (and preceded market corrections). Just as well these times are different eh.

The option value of cash is an interesting subject.

Anyway back to SKT ...how many shares Sophie has doesn’t really matter ....but i have a feeling that this week will be a good one for the SKT share price.

[jimdog31]

But as I said in the US insiders are selling (at a greater rate than buying) .....expectations of lower profits / lower share prices.

Yes many punters have cash to move into equities .....but for every buyer there’s a seller ....and whist does the seller do with the cash?

Saw today that global stock mkt cap has now topped 120% of global GDP. In bygone days Buffett said that’s alarming (and preceded market corrections). Just as well these times are different eh.

The option value of cash is an interesting subject.

Anyway back to SKT ...how many shares Sophie has doesn’t really matter ....but i have a feeling that this week will be a good one for the SKT share price.

If only you could securitise feelings 😬

Something needs to happen here... how much goodwill impairment is left if the shareprice stays where it is ?

[Quantitative Easing]

Anyway back to SKT ...how many shares Sophie has doesn’t really matter ....but i have a feeling that this week will be a good one for the SKT share price.

What makes you say that? I think sentiment needs to change completely. The market has given Sky TV no chances. The market is right most of the time and what is there to suggest that the market is wrong this time. Perhaps we are wrong?

Disc: Holder of Sky.

[winner69]

Maybe Sophie is Sky’s saviour

Research: Women Are Better Leaders During a Crisis

Extract -

When discussing the careers of women leaders, there’s a phenomenon referred to as the “glass cliff.” It’s an obvious relative to the term glass ceiling, which describes the invisible barrier to advancement that women often face when they are up for promotion to the highest levels of an organization. The “glass cliff” describes the idea that when a company is in trouble, a female leader is put in charge to save it. When women are finally given a chance to prove themselves in a senior position, they are handed something that is already broken and where the chances of failure are high.




https://hbr.org/2020/12/research-women-are-better-leaders-during-a-crisis?utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter_monthly&utm_campaign=leadership_not_activesubs&deliveryName=DM113690

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/stocks-watch-2021

Fat Prophets still bullish on Sky.

Sky did not feature as a pick for any of the others brokers listed in this article though.

[peat]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/stocks-watch-2021

Fat Prophets still bullish on Sky.



I'd rather they werent tbh, they have an abysmal record.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123870836/ageing-sky-tv-trucks-imperil-sports-broadcasts

This is a very silly argument from Sky. 10 year old broadcast trucks are not in danger of "imminent failure that will imperil the broadcast of national sport" those suckers last for decades and are routinely used by the broadcast industry for that long. if this is the only argument sky has they are not going to win a favourable ruling.

[peat]

why does the Commission have such a beef with Sky. They are not monopolists anymore. Just let them run the business.

So I worked out 3 cents per share earnings based on the upper range of guidance. Yeh?

20m earning. 656m shares
0.0304581470930588

12220

[biker]

I can’t see SKT suffering in a new L4 lockdown. Maybe it could be seen as an insurance stock.

[Dlownz]

1.6 billion shares peat

[peat]

1.6 billion shares peat

ok cool thanks. well that certainly changes things !! haha was looking at last annual report.

1,746,279,558
https://www.nzx.com/instruments/SKT

[Ogg]

1.6 billion shares peat

1.74b shares... off the top of my head.

[Dlownz]

1.74b shares... off the top of my head.
What's the difference from 100 to 200 million extra shares 😂

[Ogg]

What's the difference from 100 to 200 million extra shares 

10 do ups in Ponsonby.

[peat]

so about a billion shares issued in the last year
I need to keep up with the programme... but I did enjoy my time off over the last few weeks ;+)

so thats 1.14 cps putting it only on a PE of just under 14
not too bad ....
I reckon there is some life in the beast yet.

[peat]

Re Broadband

Full launch
12221

in secondhalf of FY21

Thats now brother.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I can’t see SKT suffering in a new L4 lockdown. Maybe it could be seen as an insurance stock.

You cant see Sky suffering in a L4 lockdown? you don't think the absence of Professional Rugby would lead to a further reduction of subscribers?

[Ogg]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-new-zealand-rugby-in-talks-with-private-equity-firm-silver-lake-in-2-billion-deal/C4FPWKM3V734JPDZAFWOG2QDCE/

15% stake worth $2b?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epHazJw4B2k

[Ogg]

Everything related to Sky is being taken over, except for Sky.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[mistaTea]

Everything related to Sky is being taken over, except for Sky.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Investors must be patient my son.

[Ogg]

NZRU is worth $13 billion but their revenue comes from Sky which is worth only $250m.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Dlownz]

Certainty been a surprise to see this track down after 2 guidence increases and quite a bit of stability recently. Maybe just after Martin leaving with another high profile (Derek) even though he was dead wood gone just shook a few branches. Let's hope Feb is a month of good news.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12413529

They have obviously been so busy working on takeover prep for Sky that they have been neglecting their network...

[Alpha]

drum roll..... Sky mobile 2021

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-boss-mobile-phone-service-only-a-matter-of-time-shares-undervalued/2YMXM62A3GSZVBH6P73SAXPH7A/

[Habits]

We currently have 3 broadband fibre connections through spark, the home the bach and the bnb so as a sky shd will be switching all three to sky dependent on plan pricing... meant to start early this year. Time to ditch spark.

[nztx]

so about a billion shares issued in the last year
I need to keep up with the programme... but I did enjoy my time off over the last few weeks ;+)

so thats 1.14 cps putting it only on a PE of just under 14
not too bad ....
I reckon there is some life in the beast yet.


I think most were hoping the earlier version was the case ;)

[mistaTea]

NZRU is worth $13 billion but their revenue comes from Sky which is worth only $250m.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Considering NZRU are broke and Sky still has very generous cash flows I am somewhat surprised that the market currently says nz rugby is worth ~8 times sky tv.

Perhaps we are just doomed to be poor! 😅

[Alpha]

Reading public comments - it seems most are very negative to Sky yet they love the programs. Maybe it is time Sky rebrand or do the merger or just close shop. Or maybe with a woman now leading the ship she may just may be able to change the public's view on SKY and get this dog back up above water.

[mistaTea]

Reading public comments - it seems most are very negative to Sky yet they love the programs. Maybe it is time Sky rebrand or do the merger or just close shop. Or maybe with a woman now leading the ship she may just may be able to change the public's view on SKY and get this dog back up above water.

I want Ogg to replace Handley ASAP.

You watch Sky’s market cap rocket to $2B as he coordinates all of these international buyers who would no doubt fight to the death to get control of Sky...

[Akane]

Reading public comments - it seems most are very negative to Sky yet they love the programs. Maybe it is time Sky rebrand or do the merger or just close shop. Or maybe with a woman now leading the ship she may just may be able to change the public's view on SKY and get this dog back up above water.

A bit like Telecom - "Telecom bad! Because... reasons!"

Changed name to Spark - still bad sentiment, but they still have ~half of the market share.

[Ogg]

I want Ogg to replace Handley ASAP.

You watch Sky’s market cap rocket to $2B as he coordinates all of these international buyers who would no doubt fight to the death to get control of Sky...

We don't need anymore people on the payroll!

Things must be going good if Handley has been thrown out. There's no way he would have walked from the job as it was likely his main source of income and most reputable occupation. He's been given the boot, most likely by Sophie.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-new-zealand-rugby-in-talks-with-private-equity-firm-silver-lake-in-2-billion-deal/C4FPWKM3V734JPDZAFWOG2QDCE/

15% stake worth $2b?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=epHazJw4B2k

Where do you get that from - the article says the proposed entity would be worth $2 Billion US dollars total. 15% of that would be $300 million US dollars.

"NZ Rugby's entity has been tentatively valued at US$2 billion ($2.79b NZD)."

[Ogg]

Where do you get that from - the article says the proposed entity would be worth $2 Billion US dollars total. 15% of that would be $300 million US dollars.

"NZ Rugby's entity has been tentatively valued at US$2 billion ($2.79b NZD)."

Looks like the article has been edited. It did say $2b for a 15% stake.

Here's an older version that has the quote:

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/sport/nz-rugby-in-talks-with-private-equity-firm-silver-lake-in-2-billion-deal/


Sky News UK now suggests a 15 per cent stake could be sold for an estimated $2 billion.

A $2 billion total valuation is high-ish but seems about right.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looks like the article has been edited. It did say $2b for a 15% stake.

Here's an older version that has the quote:

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/news/sport/nz-rugby-in-talks-with-private-equity-firm-silver-lake-in-2-billion-deal/



A $2 billion total valuation is high-ish but seems about right.

Ah that makes some sense.

Important to note that if this entity does in fact come to fruition, there is some increased danger for Sky of this entity easily being able to raise capital and perhaps starting an OTT service that goes directly to consumers once the current broadcast deal expires (when nearly all consumers are comfortable with internet delivered content).

Looking at it from NZ rugby perspective, I dont see why they would continue letting resellers take a large chunk of the profit from virtually the only sport most kiwis are willing to pay for when going direct to consumer is incredibly easy now (whereas in the past you had no other choice but to go through a broadcaster).

[Ogg]

Ah that makes some sense.

Important to note that if this entity does in fact come to fruition, there is some increased danger for Sky of this entity easily being able to raise capital and perhaps starting an OTT service that goes directly to consumers once the current broadcast deal expires (when nearly all consumers are comfortable with internet delivered content).

Looking at it from NZ rugby perspective, I dont see why they would continue letting resellers take a large chunk of the profit from virtually the only sport most kiwis are willing to pay for when going direct to consumer is incredibly easy now (whereas in the past you had no other choice but to go through a broadcaster).

This argument has been litigated on this thread for the last 10 years.

Yes, this is why the stock is down 90%.

However, the reality is that third party media aggregation continues to play an important part in the industry.

Point in case, Sky's recent multi year content deal with Discovery, in which Discovery recently launched it's own OTT service but resigned anyway. If you look at Discoverys earning statement you will see a large part of their revenue comes from resellers.

It just comes down to valuation. Does Sky's current market capitalization justify the long term risks as a reseller of content. I have one think that there's a comfortable cushion with the clean balance sheet and EBTIA earnings. The kicker is Sky's branding and market awareness in NZ. It's a household brand and part of history.

I'm in it for a merger/takeover and don't see Sky as a stand only business past 2025.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This argument has been litigated on this thread for the last 10 years.

Yes, this is why the stock is down 90%.

However, the reality is that third party media aggregation continues to play an important part in the industry.

Point in case, Sky's recent multi year content deal with Discovery, in which Discovery recently launched it's own OTT service but resigned anyway. If you look at Discoverys earning statement you will see a large part of their revenue comes from resellers.

It just comes down to valuation. Does Sky's current market capitalization justify the long term risks as a reseller of content. I have one think that there's a comfortable cushion with the clean balance sheet and EBTIA earnings. The kicker is Sky's branding and market awareness in NZ. It's a household brand and part of history.

I'm in it for a merger/takeover and don't see Sky as a stand only business past 2025.

I think that's a fair approach.

I think Sky should be investigating buying into the proposed NZ rugby commercial entity as well to secure its long term relationship to the content, regardless of what platform it ends up on in future. NZ Rugby is the sole jewel in the crown that keeps SKY as a long term going concern.

[Ogg]

I think that's a fair approach.

I think Sky should be investigating buying into the proposed NZ rugby commercial entity as well to secure its long term relationship to the content, regardless of what platform it ends up on in future. NZ Rugby is the sole jewel in the crown that keeps SKY as a long term going concern.

It's myth that somehow Rugby is the only thing keeping Sky going.

Although Rugby is important for Sky, it only makes up a minor amount of it's total hourly viewership. Customers are watching other content the majority of the time.

Case in point, NZ Cricket, which Sky lost, has of yet not effected subscriber numbers materially.

If Sky lost the rugby their value proposition and brand would be effected. Most importantly it effects margin as costs are fixed. This is why it's important that Sky mergers or gets taken over before 2025 when the NZRU rights expire.

[mistaTea]

This argument has been litigated on this thread for the last 10 years.

Yes, this is why the stock is down 90%.

However, the reality is that third party media aggregation continues to play an important part in the industry.

Yes, it is entirely possible that a new investor could go it alone.

But ultimately they will want to maximise earnings to generate the best ROI.

If you sold rugby as a stand-alone product you could maybe charge $25/month like Spark Sport. Plus you would then have to pay someone like NEP to shoot the local super rugby games etc.

It has been touted that the current deal with Sky is worth as much as $100M per annum, and of course as part of that deal Sky shoulder the cost of filming the rugby matches.

So to earn what they currently get from Sky, a new rugby-only OTT product would need to attract over 350,000 customers who subscribe for the full 12 months just to break even on what they get each year from Sky. And the Sky cheque is pretty well guaranteed (apart from the Covid claw back which is a one in 100 year event) whereas an OTT model is at the mercy of subs they can sustain.

So to be better off they prob need at least 400K paying subs for 12 months of the year.

Yes NZ is a rugby loving nation, but I don’t think a stand-alone service would get anywhere near that many subs.

Which is why the aggregation model still makes sense and, in my view, Sky is still best positioned to service that need.

[airedale]

There is a lot written about SKY sport here.. I wonder how many Sky subscribers do not take the sports channel.

[Ogg]

Yes, it is entirely possible that a new investor could go it alone.

But ultimately they will want to maximise earnings to generate the best ROI.

If you sold rugby as a stand-alone product you could maybe charge $25/month like Spark Sport. Plus you would then have to pay someone like NEP to shoot the local super rugby games etc.

It has been touted that the current deal with Sky is worth as much as $100M per annum, and of course as part of that deal Sky shoulder the cost of filming the rugby matches.

So to earn what they currently get from Sky, a new rugby-only OTT product would need to attract over 350,000 customers who subscribe for the full 12 months just to break even on what they get each year from Sky. And the Sky cheque is pretty well guaranteed (apart from the Covid claw back which is a one in 100 year event) whereas an OTT model is at the mercy of subs they can sustain.

So to be better off they prob need at least 400K paying subs for 12 months of the year.

Yes NZ is a rugby loving nation, but I don’t think a stand-alone service would get anywhere near that many subs.

Which is why the aggregation model still makes sense and, in my view, Sky is still best positioned to service that need.

It's just a question of weather or not large companies, like Amazon, Spark, Discovery, Dazn are willing to borrow large amounts of money and run operating losses for the next 20 years to gain market share.

In this case, they are not looking for a ROI. They're just looking to dominate the market.

If so, Sky can not compete.

But Sky does have assets, in the form of 1 million customers.

If large companies above, can borrow $500m on a 30 year loan at less than 2% interests. Then it just makes sense to buy Sky out and get a huge head start.

[Ogg]

There is a lot written about SKY sport here.. I wonder how many Sky subscribers do not take the sports channel.

Almost all do.

It's like most people get a combo at McDonald's. As they basically give you the fries and drink for free when you get the burger. It's just so pointless getting the burger only.

[mistaTea]

If large companies above, can borrow $500m on a 30 year loan at less than 2% interests. Then it just makes sense to buy Sky out and get a huge head start.

I agree that this strategy makes absolute sense. Very strong argument for it.

However I maintain that, given Sky’s many valuable assets, a buyer would need to pay closer to $600M to take Sky private. That is still only 4 x EBITDA, and would only attract $12M a year in interest charges.

$1M a month is lunch money for these Big Companies considering they would walk into NZ with 1M+ paying customers and a business well on its way to a streaming future backed up by an internet offering.

Now that there is light at the end of the Covid tunnel and investors are seeking returns internationally again, will this be the year Sky is targeted?

Or is the reality that nobody wants the business?

Time will tell. Def more likely to happen this year if it is to happen at all.

[mistaTea]

Almost all do.

It's like most people get a combo at McDonald's. As they basically give you the fries and drink for free when you get the burger. It's just so pointless getting the burger only.

That’s actually not true. I remember sky did a presentation a year ago or thereabouts and the sport subs were a minority. A very significant minority, but a minority of subs all the same.

Losing rugby would hurt like hell. But even that would not be ‘game over’ for Sky as most subs are in it for their entertainment packages.

In fact it is entirely possible earnings could increase in that scenario as ~$100M of costs would be removed overnight, but subs would probably not drop to the same extent.

[Ogg]

I agree that this strategy makes absolute sense. Very strong argument for it.

However I maintain that, given Sky’s many valuable assets, a buyer would need to pay closer to $600M to take Sky private. That is still only 4 x EBITDA, and would only attract $12M a year in interest charges.

$1M a month is lunch money for these Big Companies considering they would walk into NZ with 1M+ paying customers and a business well on its way to a streaming future backed up by an internet offering.

Now that there is light at the end of the Covid tunnel and investors are seeking returns internationally again, will this be the year Sky is targeted?

Or is the reality that nobody wants the business?

Time will tell. Def more likely to happen this year if it is to happen at all.

It's just weather or not there is more than one party interested in buying Sky.

One party = $500m tops.

Two or more parties competing in a bidding war = up to $1b possible.

Case in point, Sky UK.

[Alpha]

2021 yea of the take over conspiracy

but I do believe we will see some major change not only with broadband but I would be very surprised if we do not get a takeover over. This company has to be the steal of the decade and if the big company's cant see this maybe NZ is just to smaller player for them?

[Ogg]

2021 yea of the take over conspiracy

but I do believe we will see some major change not only with broadband but I would be very surprised if we do not get a takeover over. This company has to be the steal of the decade and if the big company's cant see this maybe NZ is just to smaller player for them?

Someone just has to make the first move (bid).

2020 was the year of uncertainty and survival. Deals like Discovery and TV3 were done before covid hit.

I suspect that after the ComCom decision next month regarding OSB, it should clear the way of any regulatory takeover of Sky (good or bad, outcome unknown as of yet).


In the meantime, Discovery's stock price continues to go higher.
Lots of room for....

https://techguysmartbuy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/joker-gif.gif

[airedale]

Some or even many subscribers have a package without sport. To add sport costs about$10 per month, or 120 per year. So not quite free. I agree sport is of some importance, but it is not the be all and end all of the business.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Some or even many subscribers have a package without sport. To add sport costs about$10 per month, or 120 per year. So not quite free. I agree sport is of some importance, but it is not the be all and end all of the business.

This is wildly incorrect - sport costs $31.99 a month extra (on top of a base subscription) - which works out at $384 per year extra, or is available as a standalone service via an app (SkySportNow) which costs $39.99 a month or a discounted $399.99 one off annual fee.

[Ogg]

This is wildly incorrect - sport costs $31.99 a month extra (on top of a base subscription) - which works out at $384 per year extra, or is available as a standalone service via an app (SkySportNow) which costs $39.99 a month or a discounted $399.99 one off annual fee.

Correct.

Unless you have 5 X multi-room decoders under one account. Then distribute the other 4 boxes to family members living at different addresses.

Like I do...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Tripp]

Correct.

Unless you have 5 X multi-room decoders under one account. Then distribute the other 4 boxes to family members living at different addresses.

Like I do...


*Covers eyes* NO NO YOU DON'T :(
Just remember if the boxes are IP connected (internet) then the overlords at sky will be able to see the different boxes all coming from different IP's etc. Same with sharing neon accounts etc. There were early talks when I was still working there about starting to look into this kind of thing. No idea if that is still on the cards but their decoders etc send a lot of data back to sky.

[Ogg]

*Covers eyes* NO NO YOU DON'T :(
Just remember if the boxes are IP connected (internet) then the overlords at sky will be able to see the different boxes all coming from different IP's etc. Same with sharing neon accounts etc. There were early talks when I was still working there about starting to look into this kind of thing. No idea if that is still on the cards but their decoders etc send a lot of data back to sky.

https://i.ytimg.com/vi/EfDrLTm94IU/hqdefault.jpg

Been doing it for 15 years.

[mistaTea]

*Covers eyes* NO NO YOU DON'T :(
Just remember if the boxes are IP connected (internet) then the overlords at sky will be able to see the different boxes all coming from different IP's etc. Same with sharing neon accounts etc. There were early talks when I was still working there about starting to look into this kind of thing. No idea if that is still on the cards but their decoders etc send a lot of data back to sky.

I think Sky should continue to turn a blind eye so far as account sharing goes for the minute. Their subs are still growing at a rapid rate, so they should just focus on repositioning their brand proposition and charting the course to sustainability.

Once they reach a sustainable point and growth stops then they can take another look at the account sharing issue.

NETFLIX have also started making noises about reviewing this. They have turned a blind eye from when they started because their subs kept up double digit growth for many years so it wasn’t an issue. After subs recently fell in the USA it has caused a bit of a rethink - though they are still yet to actively police it.

Sky are not at this point yet.

They have also had much less to say about piracy after winning the kodi box case. They do have a duty to their content partners to play a role in protecting copyright etc, but banging on about it in the media does not actually help Sky reinvigorate its brand.

I think new management have realised this - and even Sophie (who was heading up the legal team under John when Sky first came out swinging) has not made any more noises about actively continuing this fight. It’s a fight Sky will only lose anyway. They just need to focus on the product offerings and distribution model. If the user experience is great and the price is right, they will have no issue attracting more than enough paying subs.

[Ogg]

I think Sky should continue to turn a blind eye so far as account sharing goes for the minute. Their subs are still growing at a rapid rate, so they should just focus on repositioning their brand proposition and charting the course to sustainability.

Once they reach a sustainable point and growth stops then they can take another look at the account sharing issue.

NETFLIX have also started making noises about reviewing this. They have turned a blind eye from when they started because their subs kept up double digit growth for many years so it wasn’t an issue. After subs recently fell in the USA it has caused a bit of a rethink - though they are still yet to actively police it.

Sky are not at this point yet.

They have also had much less to say about piracy after winning the kodi box case. They do have a duty to their content partners to play a role in protecting copyright etc, but banging on about it in the media does not actually help Sky reinvigorate its brand.

I think new management have realised this - and even Sophie (who was heading up the legal team under John when Sky first came out swinging) has not made any more noises about actively continuing this fight. It’s a fight Sky will only lose anyway. They just need to focus on the product offerings and distribution model. If the user experience is great and the price is right, they will have no issue attracting more than enough paying subs.

The loss gets passed onto the content creators not the aggregator.

Maybe Sky loses a bit for original content, like Rugby.

They pick up extra adverting revenue though.

It's a good way to value add.

We wouldn't sign up to Sky movies but for extra $20 a month, every boxes gets it so it's good value.

[Ogg]

There's a reason why they don't police it. They end up making more $$$

[Ogg]

For example if one family members wants to cancel Sky, they end up not doing it, as they know it's only $25 per month. Hence more retention and less churn.

[Ogg]

Likewise, if 3 family members have it, and another one is thinking about joining Sky but thinks it's too expensive, then for only $25 they might change their mind. Hence, Sky gets more revenue.

The only down side is when the Sky technician shows up to do the install you have to get all the boxes back to the same address for the one day....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Alpha]

Is it possible the price is being driven lower for this so called M&A?

It is good that the share price has remained pretty stable but wish/hope/want it to start trending back up. As we all do.

[mistaTea]

Is it possible the price is being driven lower for this so called M&A?


That would be fraud, and I believe the odds of that happening are virtually zero.

[allfromacell]

Well the Aussies certainly like this share more than the Kiwis, perhaps kiwi investors are turned off by history. Might be time for a rebranding.

[mistaTea]

Well the Aussies certainly like this share more than the Kiwis, perhaps kiwi investors are turned off by history. Might be time for a rebranding.

Foxtel are welcome to put in a bid...

[Ogg]

That would be fraud, and I believe the odds of that happening are virtually zero.

Fraud? You mean like sharing Netflix accounts? Surely that's not happening here.

I believe it's the UBS trading desk selling the stock:

"Mr Derick Handley is stepping down? But he's a long term director? Looking at his Linkedin profile he must important. Quick, we better put the algo on sell mode and trade this down before the stock drops further...[a few days later] Yes old chap, great play, we knew a director leaving was a sell signal. The announcement is correct. He left because the business is on a down turn. All this rubbish's on this so called Shuretrader suggesting he's a total fraud and got pushed out must be baloney"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[mistaTea]

Fraud? You mean like sharing Netflix accounts? Surely that's not happening here.

I believe it's the UBS trading desk selling the stock:

"Mr Derick Handley is stepping down? But he's a long term director? Looking at his Linkedin profile he must important. Quick, we better put the algo on sell mode and trade this down before the stock drops further...[a few days later] Yes old chap, great play, we knew a director leaving was a sell signal. The announcement is correct. He left because the business is on a down turn. All this rubbish's on this so called Shuretrader suggesting he's a total fraud and got pushed out must be baloney"


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Fraud if the sellers are dumping shares to drop the price so that another organisation they are affiliated with can swoop in and buy the company cheaper - as seemed to be implied by the earlier poster.

That would be illegal and I think the odds of that happening here are zero.

[mistaTea]

I just can’t wait for the OSB sale to go through so that Ogg can start ‘working the phones’ to get a bidding war between Discovery, Comcast and Foxtel.

Then I can look forward to my $1B (or 60c per share) that he promised...

[Ogg]

Fraud if the sellers are dumping shares to drop the price so that another organisation they are affiliated with can swoop in and buy the company cheaper - as seemed to be implied by the earlier poster.

That would be illegal and I think the odds of that happening here are zero.

The odds of that not happening everyday is zero.

The stock will bounce soon when the sharesies users start posting about the half year results, which is only 4 weeks away.

Watch for the large pre orders at open. They should start happening in a couple of weeks time.

Thee sell bots will likely be caught by surprise. Will they push the stock sub 15 before it happens though?

[mistaTea]

I noticed more shiny new satellite dishes on rooftops in my fibre-only suburb during my walk today.

What do we reckon total subs will be as at end of December? I expect streaming grew too, so maybe around 1.1M?

If the average subscriber (streaming and satellite) pays sky ~$50/month that would be revenue of $660M. Add in some advertising revenue and it’s not far off projected revenue for the full year.

It’s a volume game now. Margins and much smaller than they used to be per customer, so gotta get the numbers up - and then keep them up (Sky Broadband should help a lot with the latter goal).

[Quantitative Easing]

I noticed more shiny new satellite dishes on rooftops in my fibre-only suburb during my walk today.

What do we reckon total subs will be as at end of December? I expect streaming grew too, so maybe around 1.1M?

If the average subscriber (streaming and satellite) pays sky ~$50/month that would be revenue of $660M. Add in some advertising revenue and it’s not far off projected revenue for the full year.

It’s a volume game now. Margins and much smaller than they used to be per customer, so gotta get the numbers up - and then keep them up (Sky Broadband should help a lot with the latter goal).

Sky is still strong around regional NZ. When i went around regional NZ during the Christmas break i realised how **** internet is outside major cities like Auckland. Perhaps this forms a market for sky to tap into with their Broadband. They should act quick, they are taking forever with their Broadband roll out.

[Ogg]

I noticed more shiny new satellite dishes on rooftops in my fibre-only suburb during my walk today.

What do we reckon total subs will be as at end of December? I expect streaming grew too, so maybe around 1.1M?

If the average subscriber (streaming and satellite) pays sky ~$50/month that would be revenue of $660M. Add in some advertising revenue and it’s not far off projected revenue for the full year.

It’s a volume game now. Margins and much smaller than they used to be per customer, so gotta get the numbers up - and then keep them up (Sky Broadband should help a lot with the latter goal).

Would be surprised if it's north of 1m.

The streaming churn would be high.

Advertising revenue should be better but that makes up hardly anything.

It's all about satellite retention, write downs and Sophies first report to shareholders outlining her plan.

I'm hoping that the ComCom decision is made on/or before half year results. Then an announcement regarding a "Strategic review" of the business, AKA we're on the market to the highest bidder!

[Quantitative Easing]

Would be surprised if it's north of 1m.

The streaming churn would be high.

Advertising revenue should be better but that makes up hardly anything.

It's all about satellite retention, write downs and Sophies first report to shareholders outlining her plan.

I'm hoping that the ComCom decision is made on/or before half year results. Then an announcement regarding a "Strategic review" of the business, AKA we're on the market to the highest bidder!

Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.

[mistaTea]

Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.

I think Ogg is best placed to give specifics on the takeover dates.

I am not predicting a takeover - just pointing out that I think one is much more likely this year if it is to happen.

[Ogg]

Do you have a deadline for the takeover offer good sir? My personal view is if it doesn't come this year it probably never will.

Looking back, rumors of a takeover (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/111019729/analyst-sees-potential-for-sky-tv-takeover-as-shares-sink-to-143) didn't circulate until early 2019, when the stock took the first big hit. This was a few months after Sky UK was sold off for a huge sum. This was the key point when a takeover should of happened but...

A takeover didn't happen in 2019. Perhaps because Martin had a "streaming plan", or perhaps because the stock kept going down, thus making a valuation difficult.

TV3 was then sold off during the second half of 2019. Sky at this stage was securing the rugby rights.

Balance sheet problem arose in early 2020 (after securing the rugby rights, RugbyPass and Lightbox). This is when Covid hit, and killed everything. All corporate activity was halted globally. Sky had to do the mother of all placements, effectivity recapitalising the company.

Covid is/has now passing. OSB is being sold off (the one sticking point to a takeover), the ComCom has delayed things because of a few 'one man band' camera operators complaining. Martin bailed, Blair is off in the woods somewhere. Wonderwomen (Sophie) has come in to save the day.

Right now, we should be back to early 2019, where things went sour. Hopefully early 2021 is "game time" and a takeover/bidding war starts.

[Ogg]

I also believe the real reason why Martin left was because he was pushed out and/or was had to accept a huge paycut, which he refused.

His "streaming plan" has basically been a huge failure.

RugbyPass will likely be written off.

I think Neon/Lightbox days are numbered. Likely requiring more capital to securing key content rights.

I believe OSB is being sold off for the sole reason to securing a takeover/merger. Once this is done it should be all go but don't expect a huge "Sky UK Bidding War".

[Alpha]

Who said aussies love Sky - They are down 6.7% today

[mistaTea]

I also believe the real reason why Martin left was because he was pushed out and/or was had to accept a huge paycut, which he refused.

His "streaming plan" has basically been a huge failure.

RugbyPass will likely be written off.

I think Neon/Lightbox days are numbered. Likely requiring more capital to securing key content rights.

I believe OSB is being sold off for the sole reason to securing a takeover/merger. Once this is done it should be all go but don't expect a huge "Sky UK Bidding War".

Yes they just purchased Lightbox, merged it with their existing service and are in the process of replatforming the app because it’s “days are numbered”. Hahaha.

NEON is an integral part of the future. There are lots of people who do not want to buy all of Sky’s content but are happy with a Netflix-type offering. NEON serves that market and provides Sky with revenue they would otherwise not get.

By the way - NEON, Sky Sport NOW and Sky GO are all being moved to a new technology stack for simplicity and cost savings. Streaming is the future, and before long the majority of Sky’s customer base will consume their product primarily via one of their streaming services.

Margins are down now so the ‘cash cow’ satellite business cannot be relied upon for the future now. Lower cost streaming services are needed, but they generate less profit per subscriber than satellite - so we need more subscribers.

The good news is NEON is still profitable at $9.99 (what Spark customers pay). And even more profitable for direct consumers ($13.95 per month).

On average we probably only make a profit of $30 per customer a year. But it’s a volume game. If we built to 500k subs that would be a profit of $15M (or half of the best case profit expected for FY21). If NEON continues to keep good content and a great UX, do I think Sky could build to 1 in 4 households being prepared to pay $13.95 per month? Yes I do.

Then do the same reasoning for Sky Sport NOW, Sky GO stand-alone and the ‘hard core’ hundreds of thousands of satellite subs that won’t budge and you can see how Sky will be able to increase GAAP earnings over time.

Add Broadband - they might begin as a loss leader, but even if they only made an average profit of $3/month...and even if they can only convince 250k people to switch over...that would still be an extra $9M of GAAP earnings a year.

ARPU is going to be less important moving forward as the customer base continues to spread across the different services. Profit margins are key...and subscriber growth...

[mistaTea]

Put another way...

If Sky can build to a total of 1.5M subs across all of their services...

Even if they can only make a profit of $3/month on average per sub...that is still annualised GAAP earnings of $54M.

It’s a VOLUME game now. The whole mindset has changed since John Fellet’s days when it didn’t matter that they only had ~40% penetration because their margins were so high.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sky is still strong around regional NZ. When i went around regional NZ during the Christmas break i realised how **** internet is outside major cities like Auckland. Perhaps this forms a market for sky to tap into with their Broadband. They should act quick, they are taking forever with their Broadband roll out.

Skys Broadband service will just be reselling over the existing broadband infrastructure owned by Chorus - they won't be adding anything new so impossible they could offer anything better for Rural users.

Starlink (owned by Elon Musks SpaceX) is preparing for a NZ launch soon and will offer high speed internet access via satellite anywhere in the country - this will be massive turning point for rural users who will have decent access to online streaming platforms at a usable level for the first time.

Rural broadband is more a threat than an opportunity for Sky in my opinion. Currently rural users only have Sky as an option for video programming - after Starlink arrives all those customers have the same choice of content providers as city dwellers do.

[Ogg]

Skys Broadband service will just be reselling over the existing broadband infrastructure owned by Chorus - they won't be adding anything new so impossible they could offer anything better for Rural users.

Starlink (owned by Elon Musks SpaceX) is preparing for a NZ launch soon and will offer high speed internet access via satellite anywhere in the country - this will be massive turning point for rural users who will have decent access to online streaming platforms at a usable level for the first time.

Rural broadband is more a threat than an opportunity for Sky in my opinion. Currently rural users only have Sky as an option for video programming - after Starlink arrives all those customers have the same choice of content providers as city dwellers do.

You're right about Chorus

But Starlink...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[LaserEyeKiwi]

You're right about Chorus

But Starlink...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

why do you doubt - beta testers of starlink are getting speeds of up to 200mbs, above starlinks advertised normal expected rates of 50-150 mbs.

Thats faster than what my fibre connection in wellington normally gets.

[mistaTea]

why do you doubt - beta testers of starlink are getting speeds of up to 200mbs, above starlinks advertised normal expected rates of 50-150 mbs.

Thats faster than what my fibre connection in wellington normally gets.

If starlink is such an imminent and obvious threat why have Chorus shares not crashed?

[ba9]

Worth a read..

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/sky-tv-urged-to-shed-assets

[mistaTea]

Worth a read..

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/sky-tv-urged-to-shed-assets

Can’t access the article. What’s the summary?

[Ogg]

Worth a read..

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/sky-tv-urged-to-shed-assets

"Shed assets"

Just sell everything...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Alpha]

To the highest bidder.

[mistaTea]

To the highest bidder.

Ogg just needs Sky to be...Discovered...if ya catch my drift.

[airedale]

Plenty of advice from Jarden on todays businessdesk.co.nz

[mistaTea]

I note Sky now has the rights to stream all of the Harry Potter movies.

Produced by Warner Bro’s (who own HBO). Sky strengthening their relationship with Warner?

Until now the Harry Potter series was on NETFLIX.

It does seem that the big players are pulling a lot of their content from NETFLIX now - moves that will only benefit Sky as most will not want to launch their own OTT service given the economics just don’t stack up.

[Dlownz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366470
Count down begins.....

[3mman]

12242
Finally we’re starting to see more buyers than sellers, long may it last

[Alpha]

Looking at depth it appears the sellers are retreating. Is this beast finally going to awaken.

[Ogg]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/366470
Count down begins.....

Date purposely set after ComCom decision.

Expecting a "strategic review" type announcement with the half year results.

[mistaTea]

12242
Finally we’re starting to see more buyers than sellers, long may it last

Might finally be able to look forward to “dem nice little gainz”...

[ados_nz]

Come on Ogg.... I don't routinely check this thread every hour to see a weak post like this. I want SPECULATION, HARD DATES, TAKEOVER OFFERS and most importantly MOAR CAGE!

*confident HY results will be positive 👌

[mistaTea]

Come on Ogg.... I don't routinely check this thread every hour to see a weak post like this. I want SPECULATION, HARD DATES, TAKEOVER OFFERS and most importantly MOAR CAGE!

*confident HY results will be positive 👌

I believe the theory is still that...once approval is given for the OSB sale then Discovery pounce.

In the meantime, Ogg is working the phones to gauge interest from Comcast, Nine and Foxtel to ensure bidding pushes the price up beyond 60c per share...

[winner69]

Caretaker and psrt time CFO

Never a good sign ....and he won’t be doing it for love

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/366486/339080.pdf

[Dlownz]

Caretaker and psrt time CFO

Never a good sign ....and he won’t be doing it for love

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/366486/339080.pdf

Why is that not a good sign.

[Analyst]

Why is that not a good sign.

If anything it promotes the idea of a takeover...

Per Andrews bio off Deloitte's website:
Andrew co-leads our Transactions Services team and brings extensive local and global investment banking and due diligence experience to help clients achieve their goals.

[mistaTea]

If anything it promotes the idea of a takeover...

Per Andrews bio off Deloitte's website:
Andrew co-leads our Transactions Services team and brings extensive local and global investment banking and due diligence experience to help clients achieve their goals.

Indeed. Sky hasn’t had a CFO for months.

Maybe they don’t think they will need one for very much longer...

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12415513

Some speculation Sky may be taking a look at buying Vocus before any IPO.

[airedale]

In the meantime, Ogg is working the phones to gauge interest from Comcast, Nine and Foxtel to ensure bidding pushes the price up beyond 60c per share...

Thanks MT, that started my day with smile....even a laugh out loud:t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12415513

Some speculation Sky may be taking a look at buying Vocus before any IPO.

Not a terrible idea in the near term, as sky reselling someone else's broadband offering is a low margin dead end, eliminating the middle man means more margin for Sky.

However long term broadband via Chorus fibre is going to shrink as wireless & satellite increasingly offer a better and in some cases cheaper solutions.

[Ogg]

Come on Ogg.... I don't routinely check this thread every hour to see a weak post like this. I want SPECULATION, HARD DATES, TAKEOVER OFFERS and most importantly MOAR CAGE!

*confident HY results will be positive 

I'm swamped at work at the moment, so no time for conspiracy theories.

But the recent announcement of Andrew Hirst as temp CFO looks good. This guy specialises in "transactions". Surely something is brewing behind the scenes here.

Just lol if Sky does buy Vocus. Seriously, that would be it for me. I don't think Sophie is this dumb tho. More of a "Martin" idea.

Something has to happen soon. Once the $100m bonds are paid off and greenlight for ComCom is given, it should be all go!

No need to make "conspiracy theories" up, when you know sh*t is about to go down.

Sharesis users should be piling in soon. I'm watching the forum. No posts yet, but one will pop up soon.

[mistaTea]

I'm swamped at work at the moment, so no time for conspiracy theories.

But the recent announcement of Andrew Hirst as temp CFO looks good. This guy specialises in "transactions". Surely something is brewing behind the scenes here.

Just lol if Sky does buy Vocus. Seriously, that would be it for me. I don't think Sophie is this dumb tho. More of a "Martin" idea.

Something has to happen soon. Once the $100m bonds are paid off and greenlight for ComCom is given, it should be all go!

No need to make "conspiracy theories" up, when you know sh*t is about to go down.

Sharesis users should be piling in soon. I'm watching the forum. No posts yet, but one will pop up soon.

Why would it be a terribly idea to buy Vocus? Obviously it Sky overpaid it would be wealth destructive to shareholders.

But price aside, owning the telco assets would be good. They would immediately be a serious player in the broadband market plus mobile etc.

[Ogg]

Why would it be a terribly idea to buy Vocus? Obviously it Sky overpaid it would be wealth destructive to shareholders.

But price aside, owning the telco assets would be good. They would immediately be a serious player in the broadband market plus mobile etc.

We already have one dying business, we don't need two.

Just need to sell what we have for maximum value, which is what Vocus Australia is doing.

[mistaTea]

We already have one dying business, we don't need two.

Just need to sell what we have for maximum value, which is what Vocus Australia is doing.

Instead of buying another ‘dying business’ we should expect someone else to pay us handsomely for our existing ‘dying business’?

Thank Christ you are nowhere near the Sky TV Executive team!

[Ogg]

Instead of buying another ‘dying business’ we should expect someone else to pay us handsomely for our existing ‘dying business’?

Thank Christ you are nowhere near the Sky TV Executive team!

There's a market for rotting corpses.


Google bought Motorola for $12.5B, sold it for $2.9B, and called the deal ‘a success’

https://bgr.com/2014/02/13/google-motorola-sale-interview-lenovo/

[mistaTea]

There's a market for rotting corpses.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Iw0-U9OknI

[mistaTea]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/366529/339123.pdf

LOLLLLLLLLLLL! Not even $3K worth of shares.

Cya later dipsh1t.

[Ogg]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/366529/339123.pdf

LOLLLLLLLLLLL! Not even $3K worth of shares.

Cya later dipsh1t.

Free at last...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwE3n7WZSiY

[Ogg]

Thread about Sky Broadband trail:

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=49&topicid=280395

Trail is for 6 months, so nothing will happen until 2nd half of this year.

Interesting that Dan Kelly, ex Vocus employee is heading Sky's Broadband. FeeniX got the boot.

It seems to me that a reverse takeover or a Vodafone/Sky type deal is possible with Vocus NZ, if their IPO doesn't go down well. Not my preferred outcome but at least something material might come out of it. Sky will have lot of capital after paying off bonds. Could issue more shares as well. So yeah, some type of Vocus/Sky merger seems very possible.

[mistaTea]

Perhaps Sky would struggle to get the required ~$500M finance to buy Vocus NZ...

But then again, if the Business Case stacks up I don't think it would be impossible.

Sky are already moving into broadband, and have made noise about mobile. In other words, they want to be like a telco (and I support that endeavour).

Why not fast track that by purchasing Vocus?

Spark's debt is a touch under half of their annual revenue. If Sky borrowed $500M to buy Vocus, combined revenue would be north of $1B. So the debt to revenue ratio would not be out of this world compared to what we see elsewhere. And money is very cheap right now.

On Day 1 EBITDA would rise to $200M - $220M. Sky would inherit ~200K broadband customers and then have their own huge customer base to market Sky TV/broadband/mobile/energy bundles to. It does not take much of a stretch of the imagination to see combined entity EBITDA rising to $300M.

A conservative EBITDA multiple of 7 would value the new business north of $2B ($1.15 per share). They would quickly relegate Vodafone to third place and be a legitimate rival to Spark.

If Sky can get the money together to buy Vocus NZ it removes issues that trying to do a merger would create. With Vocus NZ going for top dollar and our shares way undervalued, using equity would not be good for Sky shareholders.

Other interested parties wanted to buy Vocus NZ but only offered ~$400M. I think Vocus is worth more to Sky than it is to Private Equity though.

For Sky, buying Vocus: 1 + 1 != 2. It equals 3 or more given the huge Mega Bundle opportunities.

I would be very disappointed if Sky was not trying to make something happen here. If they can't secure the finance required to do a deal then so be it, but this is the kind of opportunity they should be actively engaging in imo.

Would be a much better purchase than Rugby Pass.

[Ogg]

Perhaps Sky would struggle to get the required ~$500M finance to buy Vocus NZ...

But then again, if the Business Case stacks up I don't think it would be impossible.

Sky are already moving into broadband, and have made noise about mobile. In other words, they want to be like a telco (and I support that endeavour).

Why not fast track that by purchasing Vocus?

Spark's debt is a touch under half of their annual revenue. If Sky borrowed $500M to buy Vocus, combined revenue would be north of $1B. So the debt to revenue ratio would not be out of this world compared to what we see elsewhere. And money is very cheap right now.

On Day 1 EBITDA would rise to $200M - $220M. Sky would inherit ~200K broadband customers and then have their own huge customer base to market Sky TV/broadband/mobile/energy bundles to. It does not take much of a stretch of the imagination to see combined entity EBITDA rising to $300M.

A conservative EBITDA multiple of 7 would value the new business north of $2B ($1.15 per share). They would quickly relegate Vodafone to third place and be a legitimate rival to Spark.

If Sky can get the money together to buy Vocus NZ it removes issues that trying to do a merger would create. With Vocus NZ going for top dollar and our shares way undervalued, using equity would not be good for Sky shareholders.

Other interested parties wanted to buy Vocus NZ but only offered ~$400M. I think Vocus is worth more to Sky than it is to Private Equity though.

For Sky, buying Vocus: 1 + 1 != 2. It equals 3 or more given the huge Mega Bundle opportunities.

I would be very disappointed if Sky was not trying to make something happen here. If they can't secure the finance required to do a deal then so be it, but this is the kind of opportunity they should be actively engaging in imo.

Would be a much better purchase than Rugby Pass.

I'm pretty that's why this Deloitte guy has been appointed interim CFO. He's probably going through both Vocus and Sky's books coming up with a valuation.

[Ogg]

There might be another rights placement if it happens. You better have some more cash set aside mistaTea :lol:

[Akane]

Sooooooooo the take over chitchats are back on the table.
Welcome to 2021 season of SKT.

[mistaTea]

There might be another rights placement if it happens. You better have some more cash set aside mistaTea :lol:

I doubt it. Sky did a rights placement last time out of necessity due to Covid and the $100M bonds.

The SP is currently below the ex-rights price. Using equity to fund any acquisitions can't be an option as it would be so wealth destructive to existing shareholders.

And they don't 'need' to buy Vocus like they needed to clear the bonds and sure up the balance sheet.

If they can't put a compelling enough Business Case together to get the required funding, then I think they have to take a pass on Vocus and just stick with the current plan to just use Vocus as a wholesaler (the low capital option).

It would be a shame if they can't do a deal with Vocus as I think they could be something really special together and Kiwi's would benefit. But using equity to buy anything right now is a no-no.

[Ogg]

I doubt it. Sky did a rights placement last time out of necessity due to Covid and the $100M bonds.

The SP is currently below the ex-rights price. Using equity to fund any acquisitions can't be an option as it would be so wealth destructive to existing shareholders.

And they don't 'need' to buy Vocus like they needed to clear the bonds and sure up the balance sheet.

If they can't put a compelling enough Business Case together to get the required funding, then I think they have to take a pass on Vocus and just stick with the current plan to just use Vocus as a wholesaler (the low capital option).

It would be a shame if they can't do a deal with Vocus as I think they could be something really special together and Kiwi's would benefit. But using equity to buy anything right now is a no-no.

Issuing some new retail bonds would be nice. Should be possible under a merger.

[mistaTea]

Issuing some new retail bonds would be nice. Should be possible under a merger.

Yeah, they already have a $200M bank facility that is untouched. If the deal makes sense, getting another $300M or so should not be impossible and some could come from issuing bonds, sure.

If the banks are prepared to let Sky borrow $200M as a standalone enterprise, then surely they would be willing to offer $500M or so for a Sky-Vocus telco.

It all depends on how much Vocus AU want for Vocus NZ, and also how much debt Vocus NZ already has etc.

if Vocus Aussie are being too greedy then we would have to take a pass.

[Ogg]

It all depends on how much Vocus AU want for Vocus NZ,

They want $700m enterprise valuation (I think).

The key is that they want a full sell down. Doing an IPO with a full sell down is difficult. Hence why the IPO might flop and Sky could have the opportunity.

A $700m valuation is pricey given that Sky is valued at $260m

The valuation of Vocus isn't an issue, it's the ratio between the two that's important. A new entity needs to be formed, with Sky and Vocus getting new shares. It's just how you slice up the pie.

[Ogg]

It's weather Jupitar, ACC, Blackcrane, and other institutional investors etc want to buy into the new entity. Seems like a good idea, especially if you can issue retail and bank debt.

[Ogg]

Hopefully existing Sky retail shareholders get offered new shares at the "IPO" or book valuation price etc in the new entity.

Some type of leverage joint buy out with bank and retail bond debt.

[mistaTea]

If they want $700M forget it, they can carry on with their IPO plans.

If they will sell to Sky for a more reasonable sum, and if Sky can finance the purchase without screwing shareholders over by using equity then great. This is what I hope they ware working on.

If those conditions can't be met, then oh well - we stick to the current plan.

Btw, the 6 month trial of broadband is not indicative of a launch date. The launch of Sky Broadband should happen well before the trial ends unless something goes horrible wrong.

[Ogg]

If they want $700M forget it, they can carry on with their IPO plans.

They will be valued at $700m but Sky will be bumped up to $500m valuation under a new entity. So $1.2b valuation of new company. Maybe $400m of that debt?

[mistaTea]

They will be valued at $700m but Sky will be bumped up to $500m valuation under a new entity. So $1.2b valuation of new company. Maybe $400m of that debt?

We have double the revenue and double the EBITDA.

How on God's green earth would that be fair?

[Ogg]

We have double the revenue and double the EBITDA.

How on God's green earth would that be fair?

I dunno, Andrew Hirst will cook something up.

[Ogg]

The main point is to load up with as much debt as possible. Let the mom and pa bond holders take all the risk...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

This could work out quite well, if the new entity can bolt on 2Degrees at some stage. They could become the 3rd biggest telco in NZ and challenge Vodafone/Spark.

[Ogg]

Sky does bring a lot to the table. Having 1m customers and also a decent brand name (Ocron and Slingshot will be gone).

All this value right now trading at only $270m.

[mistaTea]

This could work out quite well, if the new entity can bolt on 2Degrees at some stage. They could become the 3rd biggest telco in NZ and challenge Vodafone/Spark.

Sky becoming a fully fledged Telco would be tremendous for consumers.

But only if a deal can be reached that does not scew over Sky shareholders. God knows we have been through enough.

[Ogg]

The bankers, lawyers and brokers will be the real winners here. Piecing together a massive telco company.

Sell it all to Comcast in the year 2025.

[Ogg]

But only if a deal can be reached that does not scew over Sky shareholders.

Might get a bone or two.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I would rather a merger with 2degrees - 5G (and beyond) mobile networks are the future of broadband.

[mistaTea]

I would rather a merger with 2degrees - 5G (and beyond) mobile networks are the future of broadband.

Yes but to do a deal you need a willing seller.

We know that Vocus NZ is for sale, and they are also already our business partner.

[Greekwatchdog]

Looks like Olympics maybe cancelled this year.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/japanese-government-reportedly-concludes-that-tokyo-olympic-game-will-have-to-be-cancelled/VXBF4YHMDRSF7OOALLPB7K6PSM/

[Ogg]

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSTYP5ge0z ROZofV7ke92GA%3D%3D

Aussie Broadband; $600m market cap???


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqJVa0fl01w

[Alpha]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124003695/changes-ahead-for-6500-vodafone-customers-as-telco-calls-time-on-cable-tv

Just sore this as well. Could be good for SKY

[mistaTea]

https://hotcopper.com.au/documentembed?id=uOMxKKzFkiWRTLKhOROKAxjvSTYP5ge0z ROZofV7ke92GA%3D%3D

Aussie Broadband; $600m market cap???



The world has gone insane.

[nztx]

The world has gone insane.

It does indeed on those massive Profit figures to 'that' Market Cap .. ;)

Was there a sand storm in the Office around the time of the release ? ;)

[mistaTea]

It does indeed on those massive Profit figures to 'that' Market Cap .. ;)

Was there a sand storm in the Office around the time of the release ? ;)

Based on those multiples, the sooner we buy Vocus the better.

Our market cap should increase to $18B ($10/share).

[nztx]

Based on those multiples, the sooner we buy Vocus the better.

Our market cap should increase to $18B ($10/share).

Even better buy then sell it back to them on even higher multiples a short time later .. ;)

Nothing like a Fairfax/Trade Me trick being played back .. ;)

[daveypnz]

Needed our decoder replaced, the sky guys came at 6:30pm on a Saturday night - said they'd been working since 10am and still had one more job to go. I asked if many of the jobs were new installs and he said yes, although a few were people relocating. Sounds like they're flat out though.

[mistaTea]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/123962917/fans-still-grumble-but-new-zealand-cricket-delighted-with-spark-sport-numbers

NZC and Spark very happy with the viewership.

Not sure what their expectations were, but I would have thought they would get a reasonable number of people prepared to pay $25/month to watch it.

Will be interesting to see the viewership numbers.

But Spark Sport is expensive compared to Sky Sport NOW ($399/year which works out to be $33/month). When you consider how much more top tier sport Sky has.

My brother in law is a big cricket fan and has Spark Sport now. I haven’t heard him complain about the service (other than it being sh1t that he has to subscribe to both Sky and Spark Sport now).

[mistaTea]

Needed our decoder replaced, the sky guys came at 6:30pm on a Saturday night - said they'd been working since 10am and still had one more job to go. I asked if many of the jobs were new installs and he said yes, although a few were people relocating. Sounds like they're flat out though.

Sounds about right, I am noticing more satellite dishes in my suburb.

And we are a new development fibre-only area. So you wouldn’t expect a lot of satellite dishes given the streaming options.

Yet, here we are.

[Quantitative Easing]

Sounds about right, I am noticing more satellite dishes in my suburb.

And we are a new development fibre-only area. So you wouldn’t expect a lot of satellite dishes given the streaming options.

Yet, here we are.

Hobsonville?

[Alpha]

re the article look at comments not many support Spark.

[mistaTea]

https://www2.deloitte.com/za/en/pages/finance/solutions/transaction-services.html#

Since the temporary CFO is a specialist in Transactional Services...

The only service listed that would benefit Sky is the ‘Buy side due diligence”.

Now if Sky was about to buy something, what on earth might it be? 🤔

[peat]

https://www2.deloitte.com/za/en/pages/finance/solutions/transaction-services.html#

Since the temporary CFO is a specialist in Transactional Services...

The only service listed that would benefit Sky is the ‘Buy side due diligence”.


Now if Sky was about to buy something, what on earth might it be? 樂


well it depends who he is really working for!

[mistaTea]

well it depends who he is really working for!

Ha! Yes, good one!

[Alpha]

Check out the current depth. The sells are getting less. Anticipation of results and Comcom




Buyers
Buy Quantity
Prices


11
97,155
$0.156


15
486,353
$0.155


7
1,452,274
$0.154


4
127,673
$0.152


10
816,170
$0.151


26
542,716
$0.150


2
51,191
$0.149


1
1,681
$0.148


1
200,000
$0.146


3
3,433
$0.145


80
3,778,646






Prices
Sell Quantity
Sellers


$0.157
3,875
2


$0.158
140,390
5


$0.159
146,265
5


$0.160
144,521
7


$0.161
945
1


$0.162
253,849
4


$0.163
60,000
1


$0.164
201,246
3


$0.165
140,954
11


$0.166
100,485
2



1,192,530
41

[3mman]

Yes it’s great to see sellers finally keeping their hands in their pockets after months of more sellers than buyers.
All we need now is a dividend and that share price will rocket looking at the prices people are paying for dividend stocks at the moment.

[allfromacell]

Interesting depth this morning.




Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



1
100,000
$0.167


1
56,977
$0.163


1
15,000
$0.162


1
52,080
$0.161


1
1,200,000
$0.160


1
50,000
$0.159


1
6,350
$0.157


2
162,041
$0.156


11
505,180
$0.155


6
170,223
$0.154


26
2,317,851






Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$0.152
55,184
2


$0.159
95,078
3


$0.160
134,858
7


$0.161
945
1


$0.162
253,849
4


$0.163
60,000
1


$0.164
201,246
3


$0.165
139,254
10


$0.166
100,485
2


$0.167
102,041
6



1,142,940
39

[Ogg]

Interesting depth this morning.



Me this morning...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqJVa0fl01w

Handley buying up.

[mistaTea]

Me this morning...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RqJVa0fl01w

Handley buying up.

Nice little gain there for ya...

[Ogg]

Nice little gain there for ya...

You talking about Discovery stock?

39.00 USD + ↑ 1.51 (4.03%)

[Ogg]

Last: $0.165 ↑ 0.6 3.8%



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRISmm3dpVw

[Dlownz]

I'm laughing because you guys are excited even though this is where the price was sitting for quite awhile. I know its under valued but over 20 cents and I'll be alot lot happier. Before the latest drop I was going to say we found the base price of 16.5 cents then it dropped to 15.1 I topped up again. So all is well. But we are just back to where we were a month ago. Hurry up results and mention of a divi in 7 months time 🙂

[mistaTea]

I'm laughing because you guys are excited even though this is where the price was sitting for quite awhile. I know its under valued but over 20 cents and I'll be alot lot happier. Before the latest drop I was going to say we found the base price of 16.5 cents then it dropped to 15.1 I topped up again. So all is well. But we are just back to where we were a month ago. Hurry up results and mention of a divi in 7 months time 🙂

I say hold off on the divvy.

The dividend could buy us 10% of Vocus NZ instead...

[Quantitative Easing]

NZX might give us a speed ticket at this stage

[Ogg]

I'm laughing because you guys are excited even though this is where the price was sitting for quite awhile. I know its under valued but over 20 cents and I'll be alot lot happier. Before the latest drop I was going to say we found the base price of 16.5 cents then it dropped to 15.1 I topped up again. So all is well. But we are just back to where we were a month ago. Hurry up results and mention of a divi in 7 months time 

It's rare that the stock goes up.

Should be a price enquiry every time it goes up over 1%.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar7DgREshAk

[mistaTea]

It's rare that the stock goes up.

Should be a price enquiry every time it goes up over 1%.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ar7DgREshAk

Yeah usually when the market as a whole goes up Sky crashes down.

Very unusual for the NZ50 to be in the green as well as Sky!

[Ogg]

...............

[Ogg]

............

[Ogg]

...............

[Ogg]

..........

[Slim]

Spit it out Ogg

[mistaTea]

Spit it out Ogg

Name of his sex tape.

[peat]

bit of a waste of space ....

today shows that the bull is back after the last couple of months of corrective behaviour after the Nov surge


the count looks quite optimistic in my view...

[Ogg]

Meanwhile at MistaTea's house...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crgC00cvEVc

[Quantitative Easing]

We need to get Sky known to all those on r/wallstreetbets. We can get this baby to fly with some encouraging comments from Ogg.

[Ogg]

We need to get Sky known to all those on r/wallstreetbets. We can get this baby to fly with some encouraging comments from Ogg.

I have been following Gamestop long before it became a meme. Followed it after Burry bought in.

Very similar business attributes. ie once a dominate business but now under threat. But market was overly bearish on Gamestop as they still have a business, hence the excessive shorting.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12417080

[Ogg]

DISCOVERY COMMUNICATIONS INC. Common Stock

43.87 USD
+3.15 (7.74%)
Mkt cap 19.68B

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12417247

Sweet, after we buy Vocus we can then put in a bid for Trustpower’s retail business to strengthen our energy offer.

Yes, it’s all coming together quite nicely...

[daveypnz]

Is the login portal on SkyGO playing up for anyone else? They seemed to change it a few months ago, assuming it's not just me but figured I check.

I typically go direct to a link like this saved in my browser: https://www.skygo.co.nz/livetv/sky_sport_2 - you used to be able to login on the player screen and watch right away, now you have to click 'sign in' in the top right hand corner, after you have logged in you have to refresh the page to get the stream playing. Sometimes it takes you back to the home page as well. Really quite annoying.

[winner69]

Is the login portal on SkyGO playing up for anyone else? They seemed to change it a few months ago, assuming it's not just me but figured I check.

I typically go direct to a link like this saved in my browser: https://www.skygo.co.nz/livetv/sky_sport_2 - you used to be able to login on the player screen and watch right away, now you have to click 'sign in' in the top right hand corner, after you have logged in you have to refresh the page to get the stream playing. Sometimes it takes you back to the home page as well. Really quite annoying.

Seems most things with Sky are ‘really quite annoying” ....even the share price.

[Dlownz]

Is the login portal on SkyGO playing up for anyone else? They seemed to change it a few months ago, assuming it's not just me but figured I check.

I typically go direct to a link like this saved in my browser: https://www.skygo.co.nz/livetv/sky_sport_2 - you used to be able to login on the player screen and watch right away, now you have to click 'sign in' in the top right hand corner, after you have logged in you have to refresh the page to get the stream playing. Sometimes it takes you back to the home page as well. Really quite annoying.

Honestly if your using a Web browser still get away from it. Buy a chromecast and stream through a phone or tablet. Much better quality. Skygo stopped working well on the computer years ago. Skygo does work very well just not on a computer. Chromecast are amazing little gadgets

[mistaTea]

When are the Reddit Warriors going to jump all over Sky?

[Ferg]

When are the Reddit Warriors going to jump all over Sky?
They won't for many reasons, mostly because it is NZ and AFAIK there is no massive short seller. GME may have started as a pump and dump, but it's grown to more than that now. I do not recommend trying to get SKT onto that bandwagon - it will likely backfire on any instigators.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12417887

Aggregation lives on...

Once Ogg dots the i’s and crosses the t’s with Discovery for the 60c/share takeover, Sky will have enormous opportunities...

[daveypnz]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/super-rugby/300218763/sanzaar-reveals-streaming-interest-in-lucrative-overseas-broadcast-rights

[Sideshow Bob]

This has got to be great news for Sky (and also us fans)! Go the Black Caps!! :p Dirty old dingoes finally did us a favour.

Black Caps assured of World Test Championship final after Australia's South Africa tour is canned | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/300220182/black-caps-assured-of-world-test-championship-final-after-australias-south-africa-tour-is-canned)

[silu]

This has got to be great news for Sky (and also us fans)! Go the Black Caps!! :p Dirty old dingoes finally did us a favour.

Black Caps assured of World Test Championship final after Australia's South Africa tour is canned | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/cricket/300220182/black-caps-assured-of-world-test-championship-final-after-australias-south-africa-tour-is-canned)

And what's even better because Australia's slow over rate in the Boxing Day Test they got deducted 4 points otherwise they would have leapfrogged us. Slow Over rate is my bugbear with the game I love and I want even harsher punishments.

This was worth going off-topic for.

[Sideshow Bob]

This was worth going off-topic for.

Absolutely! :t_up: But from a Sky perspective, they've got the rights, right?

[LEMON]

Sky raises guidance positive trends continue

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367044

SP should only drop by 5% today on the back of this great news!

[Dlownz]

Great news

[silu]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367044

SP should only drop by 5% today on the back of this great news!

This is so criminally underrated right now. Should be easily trading 20-30% higher.

[KJMLimited]

These are big revisions
Using middle of the range, forecast EBITDA up nearly 20% from previous and NPAT up 60% from previous

[mistaTea]

FY21 Owner Earnings will be around $100M.

Just incredible.

[The Punter]

Stand by for a rocket ride today.

[peat]

told ya it was bullish now. I nearly added but it didnt quite hit 15.5 my limit order

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Wow that is a HUGE upgrade. I took a position on open as I think the guidance update will be the turning point of investor sentiment.

[dompf]

Wow that is a HUGE upgrade. I took a position on open as I think the guidance update will be the turning point of investor sentiment.

second upgrade; good to see SkyTV on the up - also be good if they released a Dividend; now that will be the rocket this share needs.

[Dlownz]

second upgrade; good to see SkyTV on the up - also be good if they released a Dividend; now that will be the rocket this share needs.

I think this is the third upgrade 👍.
First bit of good news before the half year which I'm still hoping will be a announcement on divi resumption

[Rawz]

Is it known how much the sale of OSB assets will net in a one off gain?

Because I am looking at the top line revenue guidance which just looks like it has been firmed up to a narrower range + $5m increase or <1% increase. Yet the bottom line has big jump of 50%

[GR8DAY]

... positive news trend forming now with more good news to follow soon.
Bugger, shudve listened to gut and topped up on recent lows. Still bargain buying IMHO so will keep buying at these levels. Can't go wrong medium/long-term?

[haewai]

Is the euphoria a little misplaced though? Looks like a profit upgrade on the basis of the (unapproved) sale and further cost cutting instead of material revenue increases.

[peat]

Is the euphoria a little misplaced though? Looks like a profit upgrade on the basis of the (unapproved) sale and further cost cutting instead of material revenue increases.

quote " due to further one-off cost savings, a second half management reforecast, ongoing cost control and continued improvement in satellite and streaming revenues."

[RTM]

... positive news trend forming now with more good news to follow soon.
Bugger, shudve listened to gut and topped up on recent lows. Still bargain buying IMHO so will keep buying at these levels. Can't go wrong medium/long-term?

I don’t think so. And I see them returning to paying a dividend at some stage, no rush, and that will further support the share-price. Happy days, not adding, happy with my modest holding @ 13.9c and looking forward to reaching 50c!

[Rawz]

quote " due to further one-off cost savings, a second half management reforecast, ongoing cost control and continued improvement in satellite and streaming revenues."



Also they say "Sky’s revised guidance includes the impact of the proposed sale of OSB assets to NEP NewZealand Limited, announced on 12 August 2020 and currently awaiting CommerceCommission approval."

What is the one off impact to profit? Because revenue growth is nominal.

[Entrep]

Most of it is one-off (OSB).

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Any one-off proceeds from OSB sale would have been included in the November guidance upgrade one would think. Looks like operating efficiencies are significantly increasing margins. The company should however clarify.

[Ogg]

I've been asleep all morning.... What's going on?

https://i.imgur.com/ULEegzZ.gif

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'm grateful all the ravings from you misanthropes convinced me SKT was undervalued enough to enter a position.

[Rawz]

I've been asleep all morning.... What's going on?

https://i.imgur.com/ULEegzZ.gif

Sky increased their revenue guidance by less than 1%. Booking a big one off gain from sale of OSB assets. Nothing to see here, go back to sleep :p

[Almost-confused]

Great upgrade!! I think they could comfortably restart dividends from this point. However they maybe saving their pennies for an acquisition...

[mistaTea]

Quoted value still way below what it should rationally be even before the earnings guidance increase.

A low-ball, ultra-conservative EBITDA multiple of 4 should be around $700M (40c/share).

The good news is Sky could comfortably pay a total dividend of 4c/share in FY21 (that would represent a payout of roughly 70% of underlying Owner Earnings).

I would still prefer that money being spent on a buyback at these prices, but The Board may issue a dividend in the hope it pushes the SP up more than a buyback would.

If they are going down the dividend route, they may declare an earlier-than-expected dividend at the HY results (1c-2c per share which would be approx $18M - $35M).

[mistaTea]

Sky increased their revenue guidance by less than 1%. Booking a big one off gain from sale of OSB assets. Nothing to see here, go back to sleep :p

Actually, they have provided much more revenue certainty.

The top end only increased by $5M, but the low end expectation has increased by $15M.

The earnings increase is in part due to one-off savings but also ongoing OPEX savings. OSB CAPEX savings would have already been baked in before.

Cost control is absolutely critical to Sky’s success as a going concern. The Board and Management have put a huge amount of work into reducing ongoing costs and should be commended for this result (which is far better than anyone, including myself, expected).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Quoted value still way below what it should rationally be even before the earnings guidance increase.

A low-ball, ultra-conservative EBITDA multiple of 4 should be around $700M (40c/share).

The good news is Sky could comfortably pay a total dividend of 4c/share in FY21 (that would represent a payout of roughly 70% of underlying Owner Earnings).

I would still prefer that money being spent on a buyback at these prices, but The Board may issue a dividend in the hope it pushes the SP up more than a buyback would.

If they are going down the dividend route, they may declare an earlier-than-expected dividend at the HY results (1c-2c per share which would be approx $18M - $35M).

Cant really use EBITDA for Sky valuation anymore as the change in NZ accounting standards moves a huge operational expense (Leases) out of EBITDA. have to use EBIT instead for an accurate cashflow/profitability measure.

[Rawz]

Actually, they have provided much more revenue certainty.

The top end only increased by $5M, but the low end expectation has increased by $15M.

The earnings increase is in part due to one-off savings but also ongoing OPEX savings. OSB CAPEX savings would have already been baked in before.

Cost control is absolutely critical to Sky’s success as a going concern. The Board and Management have put a huge amount of work into reducing ongoing costs and should be commended for this result (which is far better than anyone, including myself, expected).

Yes I only jest (partly). I see the bottom end expectation increase of $15m as a sign that they didn't lose too many subs over the summer cricket season with spark sport holding the rights for the black caps. Big bash and aussie v india did the job i guess. Well done to sky on that front.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Actually, they have provided much more revenue certainty.

The top end only increased by $5M, but the low end expectation has increased by $15M.

The earnings increase is in part due to one-off savings but also ongoing OPEX savings. OSB CAPEX savings would have already been baked in before.

Cost control is absolutely critical to Sky’s success as a going concern. The Board and Management have put a huge amount of work into reducing ongoing costs and should be commended for this result (which is far better than anyone, including myself, expected).

well said. I'm glad SKT is embracing the new work from home ability forced upon everyone during lockdowns - it will lead to some savings in operational costs.

[mistaTea]

Cant really use EBITDA for Sky valuation anymore as the change in NZ accounting standards moves a huge operational expense (Leases) out of EBITDA. have to use EBIT instead for an accurate cashflow/profitability measure.

Yes, that is a really good point you make.

Need to reduce EBITDA by ~$30M for the lease costs (which are mostly for satellite costs and represent real cash spent).

Even after making this adjustment (which is taken into account in my Owner Earnings calculation, rest assured)... a conservative multiple of 4 times what we could call ‘pre-IFRS 16 EBITDA’ would still be around $600M (34c/share).

And, of course, a multiple of 4 is very low. Should really be somewhere between 5-7, depending on assumptions.

[Snow Leopard]

Note that they have $100m of bonds (SKT020) maturing at the end of March.

Wonder whether they will replace them, and with what?

[Ogg]

30c

🚀

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[BigBob]

..........

[HCR20]

I’ve been looking at this for a little while now and thought that I would post some thoughts.

2020 results indicate worsening performance on almost every meaningful financial measure. However, capital raise means that the balance sheet looks good and should hold them till 2023. Overall, and on the basis of my back of the envelope calculation I think that Sky is around 23% undervalued at a 16c share price.

Annual report contained a lot of fluff (e.g. Renewed satellite contract, merging of Neon and Lightbox, most popular local streaming service, increased Satellite subs in last month etc) while glossing over most important info. That is, Satellite customer loss has been stable at around 5% p/annum for at least five years, while Streaming growth has been too variable to infer a trend over the same period. It also appears that for every Satellite customer they loose, they need to attract 4 streaming customers in order to remain revenue natural. What is not clear to me is the magnitude in difference in profit margin between these two services. They point to broadband as being a possible saviour but there are many questions here that remain to be answered. These include: (1) What proportion of their 1 million customers would they expect to convert? (2) What is their point of difference (3) What proportion of their customers are on a current fixed term broadband contact and how will this affect uptake of Sky broadband?

News since the annual report includes: Increased guidance (+), deal with Discovery (+), resignation of Handley (+/-), and CEO sudden resignation (-), Olympics not happening (-). As an aside, it is good that Handley resigned but what remains unclear is who/how was he appointed and retained for such a long period? This is the greater issue/question.

Upside Opportunity

I think that Sky is around 23% undervalued and there is some potential for upside related to being an aggregator of streaming, satellite, sports, and entertainment services. They have a brand that is widely known and trusted.

Downside risks

Sky does not have a good history or reputation in terms of being able to deliver or keep pace with technical innovation. Brand loyalty tends to sit within older demographics. Younger people are more likely to view the Sky brand as something that is associated with their parents or grandparents. Sky has been consistently loosing 5-7% of satellite customers for the last 5 years there is little evidence that this is slowing. Streaming customers have no loyalty and can access offshore providers as easy as local. There is no meaningful local differentiation in this market and referring to this as meaningful is an absolute red herring. I suspect that Sky’s fluctuating streaming numbers relate to the content that they’ve been able to acquire. In particular, big title programmes such as Game of Thrones probably drove Streaming subs. Unlike Netflix et al., Sky has no ability to create to new content. This is a serious risk as other streaming services are spending big $$ on new content. Sky’s ability to succeed in this context will relate to its ability to acquire programming from offshore providers. Who knows how well they are able to do this…

Overall:

Mixed. To some extent, given current valuation, downside risks may already be priced into current share price. The market dislikes Sky because they destroyed capital for so long and they have proved themselves to be poor innovators in a market where innovation has been happening at pace. however, the oversold nature of Sky, is probably based more in emotion than logic, and may mean that the potential for share price appreciation is greater than that of further loss. While there is downside risk, it appears to be significantly less than potential for upside gain. I have serious concerns about their ability to implement a clear strategy over the medium and long term, however some improved profitability and Satellite numbers may see the share price back to near fair value. If I was to buy, my plan would be to get in but get out relatively quickly. Perhaps as the share price meets or slightly exceeds fair valuation (around 23c p/share).

Just my thoughts.

[Ogg]

💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎💎

[Slim]

Market depth is indicating a late day surge

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I’ve been looking at this for a little while now and thought that I would post some thoughts.

2020 results indicate worsening performance on almost every meaningful financial measure. However, capital raise means that the balance sheet looks good and should hold them till 2023. Overall, and on the basis of my back of the envelope calculation I think that Sky is around 23% undervalued at a 16c share price.

Annual report contained a lot of fluff (e.g. Renewed satellite contract, merging of Neon and Lightbox, most popular local streaming service, increased Satellite subs in last month etc) while glossing over most important info. That is, Satellite customer loss has been stable at around 5% p/annum for at least five years, while Streaming growth has been too variable to infer a trend over the same period. It also appears that for every Satellite customer they loose, they need to attract 4 streaming customers in order to remain revenue natural. What is not clear to me is the magnitude in difference in profit margin between these two services. They point to broadband as being a possible saviour but there are many questions here that remain to be answered. These include: (1) What proportion of their 1 million customers would they expect to convert? (2) What is their point of difference (3) What proportion of their customers are on a current fixed term broadband contact and how will this affect uptake of Sky broadband?

News since the annual report includes: Increased guidance (+), deal with Discovery (+), resignation of Handley (+/-), and CEO sudden resignation (-), Olympics not happening (-). As an aside, it is good that Handley resigned but what remains unclear is who/how was he appointed and retained for such a long period? This is the greater issue/question.

Upside Opportunity

I think that Sky is around 23% undervalued and there is some potential for upside related to being an aggregator of streaming, satellite, sports, and entertainment services. They have a brand that is widely known and trusted.

Downside risks

Sky does not have a good history or reputation in terms of being able to deliver or keep pace with technical innovation. Brand loyalty tends to sit within older demographics. Younger people are more likely to view the Sky brand as something that is associated with their parents or grandparents. Sky has been consistently loosing 5-7% of satellite customers for the last 5 years there is little evidence that this is slowing. Streaming customers have no loyalty and can access offshore providers as easy as local. There is no meaningful local differentiation in this market and referring to this as meaningful is an absolute red herring. I suspect that Sky’s fluctuating streaming numbers relate to the content that they’ve been able to acquire. In particular, big title programmes such as Game of Thrones probably drove Streaming subs. Unlike Netflix et al., Sky has no ability to create to new content. This is a serious risk as other streaming services are spending big $$ on new content. Sky’s ability to succeed in this context will relate to its ability to acquire programming from offshore providers. Who knows how well they are able to do this…

Overall:

Mixed. To some extent, given current valuation, downside risks may already be priced into current share price. The market dislikes Sky because they destroyed capital for so long and they have proved themselves to be poor innovators in a market where innovation has been happening at pace. however, the oversold nature of Sky, is probably based more in emotion than logic, and may mean that the potential for share price appreciation is greater than that of further loss. While there is downside risk, it appears to be significantly less than potential for upside gain. I have serious concerns about their ability to implement a clear strategy over the medium and long term, however some improved profitability and Satellite numbers may see the share price back to near fair value. If I was to buy, my plan would be to get in but get out relatively quickly. Perhaps as the share price meets or slightly exceeds fair valuation (around 23c p/share).

Just my thoughts.

I have long been skeptical on Skys future prospects, but recently entered a position as it is simply so deeply undervalued (even as a declining business).

However I think you have missed a little on the streaming side potential.

I agree NEON in particular is reliant on good international content - which is at risk of being lost to International content providers going direct to consumer in NZ (see Disney), so cant rely on Neon being an attractive content provider without one or two new long term contracts with large international suppliers (if they could get one with ATT/Time Warner that would be gold).

However Sky absolutely have the crown jewel of exclusive content in NZ for a streaming provider: NZ rugby rights, which combined with the other less important sports rights they offer as a streaming product through SKY Sport streaming apps.

In my valuation of the company, I count the NZ Rugby rights as by far and away the biggest asset, and everything else flows from that. NZ RUGBY is the key to maintaining the bulk of remaining satellite subscribers and also building the key sports streaming service in NZ. I think getting back NZ cricket rights is the second most important job for Sky in future (number 1 most important is retaining NZ rugby rights)

I dont mind Sky branching out into other areas to try and broaden its revenue streams. Rugbypass was a good idea, but faced a disaster with Covid. Under different circumstances I think Rugbypass could have been in the running to get the UK rights to SANZAR content.

[DDog]

18 cents on ASX

[Ogg]

18 cents on ASX............

💎

[Dlownz]

We will see a slow climb till results now. Might even at long last break 20 cents. Then it's. .5 gains from then

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Technically speaking we have broken the strong area of resistance at 17-17.5c and confirmed a monthly uptrend. It's clear sky up to 20c.

Very strong end of day close, with ASX currently trading at equivalent of 19c.

[Ogg]

💎

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[DownTownJr]

Heck, with the history of Sky it would just be nice to see a stable SP. Here's hoping for a increase with stability.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Technically speaking we have broken the strong area of resistance at 17-17.5c and confirmed a monthly uptrend. It's clear sky up to 20c.

Very strong end of day close, with ASX currently trading at equivalent of 19c.

An interested fact - SKT hasn't seen a monthly uptrend since the end of 2014!

[Ogg]

An interested fact - SKT hasn't seen a monthly uptrend since the end of 2014!

Yeah, when Handley first joined the board...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Sky increases guidance as positive trends continue

Sky TV and "positive trends"


https://media.tenor.com/images/5d6cc1b67c5ede8e1c3a56b9a0d4b77d/tenor.gif