SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Ogg]

https://i.imgur.com/URlCmfy.jpg

[nztx]

Is there a takeover on the way ?

Someone has been positively quiet on this ? ;)

[Ogg]

Is there a takeover on the way ?

Someone has been positively quiet on this ? ;)

Yes, but after OSB is sold off...

The ComCom processing the application:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONFj7AYgbko

[Baa_Baa]

We will see a slow climb till results now. Might even at long last break 20 cents. Then it's. .5 gains from then

There are two types of people in the world
Those that can extrapolate from incomplete information

[Dlownz]

There are two types of people in the world
Those that can extrapolate from incomplete information
1. This share is undervalued especially after three revenue upgrades
2 a increase in subscriber sat number is on the cards due to the continued sat installers unable to keep up with demand.
3 yes they are relying on osb being sold but the underlying picture is there are no more write offs
4 a mention of a return to dividends just like NZME will help the share price gain more traction.
5. I said a slow climb and might see it break through 20 (not a "it will").
I myself see it only as a increase in 5mill profit as the osb sale is the true value in the announcement (not confirmed). But the announcement is still a upgrade and growing (3times)since May

[winner69]

There are two types of people in the world
Those that can extrapolate from incomplete information

That’s very thought provoking mate.

[Ogg]

Sharesies thread has popped up again. Lots of plebs will be coming home from work and reading the thread.

Tomorrow at 10am:

https://i.imgur.com/xmSf5Zg.gif

[percy]

Would have thought the TA experts would be saying all the buy signals have been there for everyone to see.
Share price at a new 6 months high.
Breakout on upside of a sideways oblong.
Share price above 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
MACD up.
RS up.

[Ogg]

Would have thought the TA experts would be saying all the buy signals have been there for everyone to see.
Share price at a new 6 months high.
Breakout on upside of a sideways oblong.
Share price above 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
MACD up.
RS up.

Hot female CEO - that's the buy signal everyone missed.

[jimdog31]

Hot female CEO - that's the buy signal everyone missed.

Man ive missed the action on this thread 🤪

[winner69]

That’s very thought provoking mate.

Hey baa_baa ...I see you can get tees with that saying on it. One it’s on way

Suppose you already have one

[Ogg]

The truth is, everyone is happy sitting at home watching re-runs on Sky TV.

Nobody cares if Sky has or hasn't got the cricket, pelps are just buying Spark sport and watching both.

Even if Sky lost the rugby 90% of subscribers would stay.

Peps love watching crap on Sky, including the ads!

It's a great business model. The only downside is that Sky doesn't own the content. That's why it would be a great buy for Discovery.

[percy]

Hot female CEO - that's the buy signal everyone missed.

That's FA not TA..............................lol.

[Baa_Baa]

Would have thought the TA experts would be saying all the buy signals have been there for everyone to see.
Share price at a new 6 months high.
Breakout on upside of a sideways oblong.
Share price above 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
MACD up.
RS up.

Add to that, MACD cross up, Stoch cross up, SP above 50 and 200 MA's ... looks good for a trade, but tempering that is seven years of wealth destruction. One->three days upwards reversal = bottom pickers heaven? Good luck, might need it.

May be that more than a single day close above the oblong is required to tempt a few punters into, or back into this. Rather be late than wreck capital? For the nimble and astute perhaps, not so much a sign for the long term devoted yet.

[Baa_Baa]

Hey baa_baa ...I see you can get tees with that saying on it. One it’s on way

Suppose you already have one

First saw it on a tee shirt, but no I don't have one. Send you an address, consider it a donation to a misunderstood good cause.

:)

[DownTownJr]

Was talking with a friend who's grandma has Sky + movie package. She is in her 70s and in the last 2 years has only watched 1 movie on Sky. She doesn't want to cancel it because "one day I might want to watch a movie again" go figure lol.

[mistaTea]

Was talking with a friend who's grandma has Sky + movie package. She is in her 70s and in the last 2 years has only watched 1 movie on Sky. She doesn't want to cancel it because "one day I might want to watch a movie again" go figure lol.

She probably figures that for a measly 69c/day she may as well keep her options open!

[Baa_Baa]

She probably figures that for a measly 69c/day she may as well keep her options open!

Hard to know how many there are, my mum was the same, but she's gone now, maybe like a fair few of Sky subscribers.

Very concerning they can't arrest the satellite subscriber decline, just points to how hard it is to compete in the digital space (without dedicated content) when their traditional subscribers are ... well how to nicely say it, dying off.

The point of difference is unclear and even harder to explain why it is sustainable over the longer term.

[ratkin]

She probably figures that for a measly 69c/day she may as well keep her options open!

Tbf I am not much different, can’t remember the last time I watched a movie on sky, or for that matter even watched soho. Last series I watched on there was Fargo and that was months ago. Keep suggesting to the wife that we cancel it, but she likes the living channel etc. Only thing I watch is eastenders and could watch that much cheaper on mucho

[Snow Leopard]

Would have thought the TA experts would be saying all the buy signals have been there for everyone to see.
Share price at a new 6 months high.
Breakout on upside of a sideways oblong.
Share price above 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
MACD up.
RS up.

12 November 2020:

My charts show that SKT is currently in an uptrend:
It began on 5-Aug-20, though obviously we would not have known this at the time;
The long downtrend ended on 6-Oct-20 by my criteria;
Today close confirmed this is indeed an uptrend with a close of 16.8c exceeding the 16.6c of 9-Sep-20.

So I pose the question to all, when do you decide that the downtrend is over and thus the stock is buy-able?

Snow Leopards are Doing Better (https://www.rainforesttrust.org/snow-leopards-better-conservation-even-important/)
https://www.rainforesttrust.org/wp-content/uploads/snow-leopard-2-2.jpg

[percy]

The Snow Leopard has better eyesight than me.
Also quicker to spot the new uptrend.
I decided yesterday [after prompting from Joshuatree] SKT was buy-able ,and brought at 17.3 cents.


ps.Told the wife I brought them in her name.Well that started the war."Why buy them?,they are hopeless,only repeats,should have asked me first."
pps.If the share price does not perform I will never hear the end of it.....lol.

[Tripp]

The Snow Leopard has better eyesight than me.
Also quicker to spot the new uptrend.
I decided yesterday [after prompting from Joshuatree] SKT was buy-able ,and brought at 17.3 cents.


ps.Told the wife I brought them in her name.Well that started the war."Why buy them?,they are hopeless,only repeats,should have asked me first."
pps.If the share price does not perform I will never hear the end of it.....lol.

Never hear the end of it? Almost like "only repeats". :D

[JohnnyTheHorse]

So I pose the question to all, when do you decide that the downtrend is over and thus the stock is buy-able?


Depends on what timeframe you're looking at. Would I buy SKT as a long term hold after a daily trend change? No, as it's in a monthly downtrend. Would I buy SKT on a monthly trend change? Yes. Monthly trend changes after very long down trends have a reasonably high rate of resulting in large moves.

It could be noted that it's still in a downtrend on longer timeframes, however I don't tend to rely on these (but keep them in mind) as they are far slower reacting than potential changes in business performance.

[Sideshow Bob]

The Snow Leopard has better eyesight than me.
Also quicker to spot the new uptrend.
I decided yesterday [after prompting from Joshuatree] SKT was buy-able ,and brought at 17.3 cents.


ps.Told the wife I brought them in her name.Well that started the war."Why buy them?,they are hopeless,only repeats,should have asked me first."
pps.If the share price does not perform I will never hear the end of it.....lol.

Percy, I am reasonably sure that you are enough brownie points ahead to allow for the odd dud! Although think low risk from here (ie how low can they go!)

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12418815

Not a huge amount of enthusiasm from Jarden for Sky.

[LEMON]

Nice start to the morning. I'm hoping for a small pullback mid-afternoon to add some more funds though, or will today be a day of climbing on the back of the guidance increase.

[peat]

Would have thought the TA experts would be saying all the buy signals have been there for everyone to see.
Share price at a new 6 months high.
Breakout on upside of a sideways oblong.
Share price above 50 day and 200 day moving averages.
MACD up.
RS up.

Hello!!
12285

[percy]

Hello!!
12285

As per usual I am a bit late to the party,but in time for the eats....lol.

[Ogg]

....🧻👐....

[HCR20]

Took a small position today. I think it's hated and therefore oversold.

[Lion_graf]

Morning star valuation .30

[Entrep]

Morning star valuation .30

The quicker you learn they mean nothing the better

[nztx]

The quicker you learn they mean nothing the better


I'd sell to them, if they came knocking at that price .. you know a special deal .. ;)

[RupertBear]

The Snow Leopard has better eyesight than me.
Also quicker to spot the new uptrend.
I decided yesterday [after prompting from Joshuatree] SKT was buy-able ,and brought at 17.3 cents.


ps.Told the wife I brought them in her name.Well that started the war."Why buy them?,they are hopeless,only repeats,should have asked me first."
pps.If the share price does not perform I will never hear the end of it.....lol.

Classic! Love it :lol::lol: welcome aboard Percy :)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Looks to be retesting that resistance zone. If it holds will be bullish by confirming the breakout.

[LEMON]

Nice little pullback I was hoping for, in with another small donation. Hope it goes up from here

I reckon a push past 18c, then a retreat to settle at 18c till the announcement.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12419004

Always amusing to see the latest speculation for Sky TV from the ‘experts’.

At no point does the article point out that, if Silver Lake by a stake of NZR they will effectively own a % of Sky right away.

That could create other opportunities. For example, buy the rest of Sky and leverage their existing tech as well as RugbyPass to get maximum profit from the rugby matches.

I believe only OIO approval would be needed.

Once again, I am not making any takeover predictions. Just pointing out that the ‘experts’ and the journalist have not even considered this as they continue to take a very narrow view of what negative outcome ‘might’ happen to Sky.

So far, their predictions have largely been wrong in terms of how the business continues to perform.

The share price is another story.

[mistaTea]

https://www.silverlake.com/portfolio/index/CurrentInvestments/

Current investments include content and entertainment businesses.

Nothing quite like Sky TV, but it’s not a stretch of the imagination to see how an asset like Sky could significantly enhance their NZR asset.

[Ogg]

Sky should get rid of the rugby.

Grandmas watching movies is where the money is...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[mistaTea]

If SilverLake pushed their own OTT rugby service I would feel very bad for consumers.

Rural NZers who love rugby would be screwed, obviously.

But also, sports fans in metro areas who follow a number of codes would have to fork out to Spark, Sky and SilverLake to get all the action.

Sky’s $30 sports bundle is looking more attractive by the day...

[Analyst]

If SilverLake pushed their own OTT rugby service I would feel very bad for consumers.

Rural NZers who love rugby would be screwed, obviously.

But also, sports fans in metro areas who follow a number of codes would have to fork out to Spark, Sky and SilverLake to get all the action.

Sky’s $30 sports bundle is looking more attractive by the day...

Merger was cleared!! Hasn’t hit mainstream media yet.

https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/nep-broadcast-services-new-zealand-limited-and-sky-network-television-limited

Great to see the tide turning slowly

[Ogg]

Merger was cleared!! Hasn’t hit mainstream media yet.

https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/nep-broadcast-services-new-zealand-limited-and-sky-network-television-limited

Great to see the tide turning slowly


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DwE3n7WZSiY

[mistaTea]

Merger was cleared!! Hasn’t hit mainstream media yet.

https://comcom.govt.nz/case-register/case-register-entries/nep-broadcast-services-new-zealand-limited-and-sky-network-television-limited

Great to see the tide turning slowly

Fantastic news! Thanks for keeping an eye out for this.

[LEMON]

Great news. Well done to all who held on.

[Ogg]

Takeover tomorrow?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Baa_Baa]

I don’t want a takeover. How not to be a Dick? Don’t be a Dick.

Let it run up on its own merits. Pristine balance sheet, cashflow to die for, million subscribers.

It will happen.

[Dlownz]

I don’t want a takeover. How not to be a Dick? Don’t be a Dick.

Let it run up on its own merits. Pristine balance sheet, cashflow to die for, million subscribers.

It will happen.

A day after skys announcement. Does that mean they already knew went they sent the release. Seems like to much coincidence

[Dlownz]

Not complaining though. Another boost tomorrow

[percy]

Well the tea leaves ,sorry,should say "TA buy indicators" on SKT's chart are proving to be correct.
We live in interesting times.

[KJMLimited]

Read the NZX release. The go ahead was clearly signalled.

[nztx]

Takeover tomorrow?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE


Who are Sky taking over ? ;)

[mistaTea]

Who are Sky taking over ? ;)

Vocus of course!

[LEMON]

You would think if any time for a takeover of Sky it would be now, right? 3 upgrades on guidance, selling off the old vans, broadband to be released. Share price still undervalued! Now would be the time

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/124155643/sky-tv-sale-of-outside-broadcast-unit-gets-green-light-from-commerce-commission

[Greekwatchdog]

Happy Campers today? https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367168

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/228973

“After careful consideration, the Commission is satisfied that there is no realistic prospect that OSB would continue to provide outside broadcasting services if the proposed transaction did not proceed,” said commission chair Anna Rawlings.
“Rather, we consider it would seek to outsource those services to a third party, most likely NEP.”

In other words, as Ogg so aptly put it earlier...Sky threatened to dump their trucks on the side of the road! Haha!

[Akane]

My hands have now turned into diamond from holding this and ATM, I've held SKT since $1.20, hopefully I can break even with SKT soon.

[Alpha]

I am similar Akane but just kept buying the cheaper they went. So my average as massively improved and am now well in the green. Have only sold a very small portion to rebalance but I am very happy the COMCOM finally seems to be ok with SKY looking forward to the news flows this year. I think this is going to be quite a positive year for Sky.

[steveb]

So why did it take so long?

I can see why the vodafone merger took so long,but a couple of rusty vans and outdated equipment!

[Quantitative Easing]

can we break 18.5 cents?

[steveb]

So why did it take so long?

I can see why the vodafone merger took so long,but a couple of rusty vans and outdated equipment!

[percy]

Currently 18.3 cents in NZ and 17.5 in Aussie,
On the way up.

[percy]

Currently 18.3 cents in NZ and 17.5 in Aussie,
On the way up.

[Snoopy]

Currently 18.3 cents in NZ and 17.5 in Aussie,
On the way up.


DNS attack on the sharetrader website today? Part of a plot to get people to recognise satellite is DNS free? I blame SKT!

SNOOPY

[cyclist]

DNS attack on the sharetrader website today? Part of a plot to get people to recognise satellite is DNS free? I blame SKT!

SNOOPY

And still going it seems. 3 mins or so for each page load here.

[nztx]

And still going it seems. 3 mins or so for each page load here.


Looks like it's fixed now - lightning response

Sure one of you weren't leaning on the handbrake & hadn't noticed ? ;)

[daveypnz]

Market didn't seem too impressed with the merger. Guess it was already priced in?

[nztx]

Market didn't seem too impressed with the merger. Guess it was already priced in?

possibly, but there has still been a bit of a bounce into the 18's

I imagine next report, potentially good surplus & possibly better times with some sort of div, buy back
whatever may see some further movement, but who knows . ;)

[Alpha]

possibly, but there has still been a bit of a bounce into the 18's

I imagine next report, potentially good surplus & possibly better times with some sort of div, buy back
whatever may see some further movement, but who knows . ;)


hit 19 today. The upward trend seems to be in full play. Looking forward to results and broadband.

vocus is another interesting thing to keep an eye on.

[Baa_Baa]

hit 19 today. The upward trend seems to be in full play. Looking forward to results and broadband.

vocus is another interesting thing to keep an eye on.

The results might surprise a few, with its pristine balance sheet and massive subscriber base still forking out the monthly $ for a legacy service they're not getting rid of any time soon. Emerging revenues from streaming services will be promising, reduced costs of operations and next period one-off income from sale of assets.

What's not to like, it's not often one gets a buy-in to a turnaround story. Worth a punt, but not betting the bank on it.

[HCR20]

The results might surprise a few, with its pristine balance sheet and massive subscriber base still forking out the monthly $ for a legacy service they're not getting rid of any time soon. Emerging revenues from streaming services will be promising, reduced costs of operations and next period one-off income from sale of assets.

What's not to like, it's not often one gets a buy-in to a turnaround story. Worth a punt, but not betting the bank on it.

Key for me will be profitability and reduction/reversal of sat sub losses.

Disc: Small holding. Planning to exit at around 23-25c.

[Baa_Baa]

Key for me will be profitability and reduction/reversal of sat sub losses.

Disc: Small holding. Planning to exit at around 23-25c.

Yeah agree on profitability, hopefully not propped up by one-off sales of assets i.e. trading profitably in it's own right, but I'm not concerned with Satellite subscription declines. I think that is inevitable, it is the rate of decline vs the rate of transfer to digital subs that interests me. I really like SKT getting out of making content, focus on distribution leverages their strength in eyeballs attracting content suppliers.

I'll be here long after 23-25 cents if SKT start hitting some home runs. I like the new CEO, she's pretty smart imo (probably the brains trust that's been behind much of the change recently) and worth backing for a turnaround. Good that some more of the deadwood have gone, Board especially.

I think the turning point in the SP is well behind us at .125, already 50% up from that. Our long suffering investors should be pretty happy with how things are moving now.

[jimdog31]

does macquarie make a play at the same time as their vocus takeover bid?

[airedale]

does macquarie make a play at the same time as their vocus takeover bid?
Only Ogg has the answer to that😊

[Ogg]

Only Ogg has the answer to that

I've stopped giving takeover predictions. In fact every company that is associated with Sky ends up getting taken over so just buy any company that gets mentioned on this thread and the chances are it gets taken over.

It's better that a takeover of Sky doesn't happen. The time for that has now passed. Things are actually looking good now that Handley is gone and Sophie is in charge. Earnings upgrade is proof that the business model is not dead.

Next stage is to get rid of more underperforming assets. RugbyPass needs to go. Ideally Neon also at some stage.

We need to get back to the bread and butter. Old ladies watching black and white movies and 1960's reruns on Jones TV.

It's time to get rid of the rugby post 2025. Only poor losers watch that crap. Mostly young people with no cash. Sky will keep the old and weird sports, like Snooker, table tennis etc. Seriously, this is how you make money. Gotta milk this cash cow dry and feed it cheap food.

[RGR367]

I've stopped giving takeover predictions. In fact every company that is associated with Sky ends up getting taken over so just buy any company that gets mentioned on this thread and the chances are it gets taken over.

It's better that a takeover of Sky doesn't happen. The time for that has now passed. Things are actually looking good now that Handley is gone and Sophie is in charge. Earnings upgrade is proof that the business model is not dead.

Next stage is to get rid of more underperforming assets. RugbyPass needs to go. Ideally Neon also at some stage.

We need to get back to the bread and butter. Old ladies watching black and white movies and 1960's reruns on Jones TV.

It's time to get rid of the rugby post 2025. Only poor losers watch that crap. Mostly young people with no cash. Sky will keep the old and weird sports, like Snooker, table tennis etc. Seriously, this is how you make money. Gotta milk this cash cow dry and feed it cheap food.

What happened to you :confused:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I've stopped giving takeover predictions. In fact every company that is associated with Sky ends up getting taken over so just buy any company that gets mentioned on this thread and the chances are it gets taken over.

It's better that a takeover of Sky doesn't happen. The time for that has now passed. Things are actually looking good now that Handley is gone and Sophie is in charge. Earnings upgrade is proof that the business model is not dead.

Next stage is to get rid of more underperforming assets. RugbyPass needs to go. Ideally Neon also at some stage.

We need to get back to the bread and butter. Old ladies watching black and white movies and 1960's reruns on Jones TV.

It's time to get rid of the rugby post 2025. Only poor losers watch that crap. Mostly young people with no cash. Sky will keep the old and weird sports, like Snooker, table tennis etc. Seriously, this is how you make money. Gotta milk this cash cow dry and feed it cheap food.

Not sure if serious...

[Ogg]

What happened to you :confused:

I finally realised what actually makes this company tick.

It's not the All Blacks.

It's the re-runs and trashy TV content.

That's what people want to pay for and watch.

Seriously, Sky has the GOAT business models...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Sky losing the NZ cricket was the best thing that ever happened.

True cricket fans will watch India VS England or Pakistan VS South Africa at 12am in the morning. Or Mysky it etc.

This type of content costs 1/10 of the price of NZ cricket. Plus Sky doesn't have to broadcast it with OSB.

Just lol. Seriously, this is greatest cash cow business model of all time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

That's why NZ rugby has to go. Let Silver Lake have it.

Use the $100m in savings to buy other less known but interesting sports.

[Ogg]

Better yet, just spend $50m on more Monty Python re-runs.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Akane]

Someone call the doctor, we want the old Ogg back.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sky losing the NZ cricket was the best thing that ever happened.

True cricket fans will watch India VS England or Pakistan VS South Africa at 12am in the morning. Or Mysky it etc.

This type of content costs 1/10 of the price of NZ cricket. Plus Sky doesn't have to broadcast it with OSB.

Just lol. Seriously, this is greatest cash cow business model of all time.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

I see your strategy now - trying to attract a private equity corporate raider to come in with a takeover offer by laying out a compelling case for selling off the valuable parts of the company (Rigby rights to spark would cover a big chunk of takeover price) and then milking the satellite base for the next decade as you sell off all non-essential assets/property and move customer support operations to India and/or chat-bots.

[Ogg]

Someone call the doctor, we want the old Ogg back.

You don't want a takeover here.

Look at the balance sheet after the bonds are paid off! Company is healthy.

I think Sky should try and exit it's contract with NZ Rugby early, perhaps 2023. Get all that cash back and buy NZ Rugby shares back.

We need more re-runs. Another Jones channel. More black and white movies etc. More content for grannies.

5c divys every 6 months...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Sky forgot who it's customers were.

Rugby fans are young losers with no cash. Mostly likely to pirate content. Sky needs to get rid of them.

Baby boomers still have another 30 years left of TV watching.

Grannies is where the cash is.

Jones TV!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4d/Jones-channel-logo.png/220px-Jones-channel-logo.png

[airedale]

Sky forgot who it's customers were.

Rugby fans are young losers with no cash. Mostly likely to pirate content. Sky needs to get rid of them.

Baby boomers still have another 30 years left of TV watching.


Grannies is where the cash is.

Jones TV!

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/thumb/4/4d/Jones-channel-logo.png/220px-Jones-channel-logo.png
There is a kernel of truth in Ogg's theory. My old lady would get very grumpy if I ditched SKY. She never watches sports but would happily watch any number of British detective series etc. She is never happier than when she finds another re-run of Morse.

[Akane]

You don't want a takeover here.


I prefer a takeover, I want to liquidate all I have and move on to other stuff with higher growth, instead of having $$$ tied into a stagnant stock.

[Ogg]

There is a kernel of truth in Ogg's theory. My old lady would get very grumpy if I ditched SKY. She never watches sports but would happily watch any number of British detective series etc. She is never happier than when she finds another re-run of Morse.

Dedicated Inspector Morse TV channel.

$4.99 per month.

Nothing but re-runs....


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Sky line up 2022.

1. One
2. TV2
3. Three Now
4. Prime
5. Jones TV
6. Jones TV
7. Jones TV
8 Jones TV
9. Jones TV
10. Jones TV


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[ba9]

Ogg. While I agree with you on a lot of things. This may not be one of them :)

If you take live content such as sports out of SKY, there isn't much to differentiate sky from the rest. Eventually Netflix or someone can will outbid them. As they can do this a lot better than sky. It would inevitably lead to a slow death.

The beauty of SKY is there is something for everyone in the household to watch. From kids, Mom, grannies and dads.
While sport may not a smart decision financially, it is still a necessary evil that sky needs. Just look at Sparksport and their offering. They would do anything to take rugby off Sky.

[Ogg]

Ogg. While I agree with you on a lot of things. This may not be one of them :)

If you take live content such as sports out of SKY, there isn't much to differentiate sky from the rest. Eventually Netflix or someone can will outbid them. As they can do this a lot better than sky. It would inevitably lead to a slow death.

The beauty of SKY is there is something for everyone in the household to watch. From kids, Mom, grannies and dads.
While sport may not a smart decision financially, it is still a necessary evil that sky needs. Just look at Sparksport and their offering. They would do anything to take rugby off Sky.

I'm not saying get rid of sport, I'm saying get rid of NZ made sport and replace it with snooker, dart or bowel re-runs from overseas.

All Blacks and the domestic NZ rugby is just a waste of money.

[Ogg]

Only a small percentage of customers will cancel, provided there is some rugby content on there. Like overseas matches or B grade or high school games etc.

[Ogg]

keep the sevens, touch rugby, women's rugby etc. All the cheap stuff but just have lots of it.

[Ogg]

With OSB gone and the money saved from rugby, that's like $150m a year. Almost half the capitalization of the company.

Probably 20k customers will cancel max. The rest is all cash to be paid out to shareholders.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Just think about this. Sky lost the rights to NZ cricket, but earnings guidance has been increased. It's as if it had no effected on the company what's so ever. Let's do the same with the rugby.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[jimdog31]

Just think about this. Sky lost the rights to NZ cricket, but earnings guidance has been increased. It's as if it had no effected on the company what's so ever. Let's do the same with the rugby.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Ogg, i feel like we need an intervention here. this is a cry for help 😂

[mistaTea]

I do believe that in 2025 the rugby rights will go to auction. And I do believe that Sky are most likely to be outbid.

Sky will put in another very strong bid, but nothing is worth an infinite price - no matter how wonderful it is.

if Spark win it, they will by definition have needed to overpay for the rights. Not sure Spark shareholders will be too keen on having to pay $120M+ a year just for the broadcast rights, then more money to film local matches etc.
Spark Sport subs will have to go higher than $25/month. Probably $39.99 per month (at least) which is what you can get Sky Sport NOW for currently on a monthly (no contract) plan.

SL/NZR will do handsomely but consumers get screwed again, and I don't believe Spark (or anyone else who might bid) will get as broad a viewership as Sky can with their streaming and satellite capability.

But anyway, if SL are in the picture then it is going to come down to who will pay the most. And, though we will have had a 30 year relationship with NZR by then...and an important relationship at that, I don't think Sky will be able to justify stumping up the cash required in a bidding war situation.

Not keeping the rugby would be a blow for Sky, but there are silver linings too. That is $100M a year suddenly freed up to invest in other content, investments etc. Divvy's too potentially.
A number of people will cancel their Sport subs, but may be inclined to pick up an entertainment bundle instead. Hard to predict, but I don't think you will see an overnight drop of hundreds of thousands of subs because the rugby is gone. ARPU will drop as a number of people cancel the Sport component, but I am not convinced the majority will cancel Sky altogether.

By then we will have a solid broadband offer as well as mobile. And who knows what else.

Hanging onto rugby until 2025 was a good move though to keep everything as steady as can be while we transition to streaming. If we lost rugby now, everyone would lose their minds and the SP would be even lower than it has been as the market would be convinced that Sky cannot exist without NZR.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I do believe that in 2025 the rugby rights will go to auction. And I do believe that Sky are most likely to be outbid.

Sky will put in another very strong bid, but nothing is worth an infinite price - no matter how wonderful it is.

if Spark win it, they will by definition have needed to overpay for the rights. Not sure Spark shareholders will be too keen on having to pay $120M+ a year just for the broadcast rights, then more money to film local matches etc.
Spark Sport subs will have to go higher than $25/month. Probably $39.99 per month (at least) which is what you can get Sky Sport NOW for currently on a monthly (no contract) plan.

SL/NZR will do handsomely but consumers get screwed again, and I don't believe Spark (or anyone else who might bid) will get as broad a viewership as Sky can with their streaming and satellite capability.

But anyway, if SL are in the picture then it is going to come down to who will pay the most. And, though we will have had a 30 year relationship with NZR by then...and an important relationship at that, I don't think Sky will be able to justify stumping up the cash required in a bidding war situation.

Not keeping the rugby would be a blow for Sky, but there are silver linings too. That is $100M a year suddenly freed up to invest in other content, investments etc. Divvy's too potentially.
A number of people will cancel their Sport subs, but may be inclined to pick up an entertainment bundle instead. Hard to predict, but I don't think you will see an overnight drop of hundreds of thousands of subs because the rugby is gone. ARPU will drop as a number of people cancel the Sport component, but I am not convinced the majority will cancel Sky altogether.

By then we will have a solid broadband offer as well as mobile. And who knows what else.

Hanging onto rugby until 2025 was a good move though to keep everything as steady as can be while we transition to streaming. If we lost rugby now, everyone would lose their minds and the SP would be even lower than it has been as the market would be convinced that Sky cannot exist without NZR.

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

[mistaTea]

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

Also important to remember - this is 5 years away, and a lot can happen in 5 years. It is not even certain that Spark Sport will still be around.

I agree that rugby is important content. It provides great content for about 10 months of the year.

And despite Ogg's assertion that rugby is just for young people 'with no money'... the majority of rugby fans are males over 40 with disposable income.

I don't agree with the doom and gloom scenarios whereby a loss of rugby leads to a mass exodus. I could be wrong on that, but in a scenario like this it is fair to say that Sky Sport monthly subscription costs would drop from ~$30/month to $15-$20/month most likely. Provided they still have enough other good content across football, league, tennis, cyccling, boxing, super cars etc...I think they can hold onto more customers than people give credit for.

I am a rugby fan myself (neither 'young' nor 'broke' as Ogg would assert) and would much prefer Sky hang onto the rights when they come up for negotiation in 5 years time. I believe the contract is set in such a way that we get first rights of exclusive negotiation...and only if we don't land an agreement by a certain date can the rights go out to the wider market.

So, depending on how things are in the world in 5 years time...it is still possible that Sky could lock the rights up again. I am just not sure that it is probable from where we are sitting here in 2021.

And, no mater how wonderful a piece of content is..nothing is worth an infinite price. Ultimately, we have to pay a price that makes sense (and allows us to make a living).

[Ogg]

Disagree - NZ RUGBY rights is Sky's most crucial asset, especially since they lost NZ cricket. Without NZ Rugby, sky would lose critical mass of customers, and quickly become unprofitable. The number of subscribers that are going to pay for sky sport at $40 a month without NZ rugby and NZ cricket is in the single digit percentage of current sky sport subscribers. And when those people cancel sky sport, they also likely cancel their sky satellite subscription altogether. We are talking about hundreds of thousands of subscriber cancellations here.

What's more, Sky is still in the best position to retain sport rights due to the fact they have bundle economics - all sky subscribers are effectively helping sky pay for Rigby rights, even if they aren't subscribed to sky sport. No one else in New Zealand has that advantage. NZ Rugby however is crucial to retaining that bundle economics advantage. The biggest threat I think comes form a joint Spark/TVNZ bid in a similar style to the World Cup broadcast arrangement - eg: TVNZ gets one live game a week, while Spark streams all games online with both outlets showing the finals.

Rugby is dead:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/basketball/110561163/secondary-school-rugby-participation-plummets-while-basketball-surges

[Ogg]

Imagine investing half a billion dollars for a 15% stake in a dying sport


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE




This is where it's at!

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/5138XY11NRL.jpg

[Ogg]

"I can't remember those games"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/300178485/i-cant-remember-those-games-group-of-eight-exrugby-internationals-to-sue-for-brain-damage

Inb4 NZRU and SilverLake get sued for $$$$$ by brain dead muppets...



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Ogg]

Seriously, Rugby needs to go ASAP.

Luckily we have a women in charge with an undamaged brain.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Also important to remember - this is 5 years away, and a lot can happen in 5 years. It is not even certain that Spark Sport will still be around.

I agree that rugby is important content. It provides great content for about 10 months of the year.

And despite Ogg's assertion that rugby is just for young people 'with no money'... the majority of rugby fans are males over 40 with disposable income.

I don't agree with the doom and gloom scenarios whereby a loss of rugby leads to a mass exodus. I could be wrong on that, but in a scenario like this it is fair to say that Sky Sport monthly subscription costs would drop from ~$30/month to $15-$20/month most likely. Provided they still have enough other good content across football, league, tennis, cyccling, boxing, super cars etc...I think they can hold onto more customers than people give credit for.

I am a rugby fan myself (neither 'young' nor 'broke' as Ogg would assert) and would much prefer Sky hang onto the rights when they come up for negotiation in 5 years time. I believe the contract is set in such a way that we get first rights of exclusive negotiation...and only if we don't land an agreement by a certain date can the rights go out to the wider market.

So, depending on how things are in the world in 5 years time...it is still possible that Sky could lock the rights up again. I am just not sure that it is probable from where we are sitting here in 2021.

And, no mater how wonderful a piece of content is..nothing is worth an infinite price. Ultimately, we have to pay a price that makes sense (and allows us to make a living).

I agree the appropriate thing for sky to do in the hypothetical event they lose NZ rugby is that they would need to dramatically lower the pricing on sport to retain viewers. I would also think in that scenario they would try and grow the profile of rugby league somewhat by way of supporting another one or two NZ team bids for NRL expansion (and maybe lure a high profile Allblack or two to cross codes).

[mistaTea]

I agree the appropriate thing for sky to do in the hypothetical event they lose NZ rugby is that they would need to dramatically lower the pricing on sport to retain viewers. I would also think in that scenario they would try and grow the profile of rugby league somewhat by way of supporting another one or two NZ team bids for NRL expansion (and maybe lure a high profile Allblack or two to cross codes).

Yeah, so many things 'could' happen and it is hard to predict.

Human nature is to take a couple of data points and try to extrapolate far into the future. That can lead to excessinvely positive thinking (which we see in the shareprice of a range of companies where the market must be expecting some absolutely MASSIVE lifts in earnings in years to come...).

It can also go the other way with worst-case doom-and-gloom scenarios. I see loss of NZ rugby as one of those.

Definitely bad for Sky to lose rugby, no two ways about it. But I don't agree that it is the end of Sky if they don't hold rugby as there are many scenarios that could play out from this hypothetical situation.

Super Rugby begins on Feb 26 - I can't wait to watch it. Currently enjoying the AO.

Sky Sport NOW is a great app.I get a perfect HD stream, and their 'Feature' section has an awesome range of On Demand content. Watched the Lance Armstrong and Chuck Wepner (aka the real Rocky Balboa) '30 for 30' ESPN programs. Great stuff and I will explore more when I am not watching live sport.

[Ogg]

I agree the appropriate thing for sky to do in the hypothetical event they lose NZ rugby is that they would need to dramatically lower the pricing on sport to retain viewers. I would also think in that scenario they would try and grow the profile of rugby league somewhat by way of supporting another one or two NZ team bids for NRL expansion (and maybe lure a high profile Allblack or two to cross codes).

Pricing has never been the issue. Putting the price up or down is meaningless. The price should just stay the same.

It's about catering to the demand.

You need to have 3-4 hours of a variety of content ever night to satisfy every customer. If you lose the NZ rugby you just replace it with something else. People will watch what you put in front of them as long as it's not a homemade youtube type video.

There's plenty of crap out there that Sky can buy and put on TV. Pleps will watch and pay! This is how it works.

Who started this whole myth that if Sky loses the rugby everyone will cancel??? It's BS and has been proving wrong after Sky lost the NZ cricket.

[Almost-confused]

Pricing has never been the issue. Putting the price up or down is meaningless. The price should just stay the same.

It's about catering to the demand.

You need to have 3-4 hours of a variety of content ever night to satisfy every customer. If you lose the NZ rugby you just replace it with something else. People will watch what you put in front of them as long as it's not a homemade youtube type video.

There's plenty of crap out there that Sky can buy and put on TV. Pleps will watch and pay! This is how it works.

Who started this whole myth that if Sky loses the rugby everyone will cancel??? It's BS and has been proving wrong after Sky lost the NZ cricket.

My instant reaction is we absolutely need to hold on to rugby. But actually running numbers from the full year result... Just for fun

Customer split by content:
10% Sport only
31% Entertainment only
59% Both Sport and Entertainment

Assume we lose the rugby. Worst case MAY be...
Lose all the Sport only Subscribers and Half of the Entertainment and Sport (29.5% + 10%), total 40% loss.

Currently 585m customers mean we would shed 234k customers.

@ average ARPU of $82 per month

= 234,000 x $82 x 12
= $230m shortfall on revenue

BUT

Save $100m on content costs
And maybe $50m?? on production

Leaves only a $80m hole in the bottom line. But still not great...

Simplified analysis, I know but back of the fag pack stuff

[mistaTea]

Who started this whole myth that if Sky loses the rugby everyone will cancel??? It's BS and has been proving wrong after Sky lost the NZ cricket.

I don't think that is really 'proof' of anything in and of itself.

Sky lost NZ cricket, but were able to hold onto international cricket (which includes Black Caps matches). So it is a unique scenario where crocket fans in general (and Black Cap fans specifically) have been screwed because they will have to keep their Sky sub and take on a Spark Sport sub to watch all of their cricket.

if Sky lost NZR/SANZAAR then that's the big draw card gone. Even if we held on to Northern Hemisphere rugby it would not be quite the same scenario as what we see with cricket today.

Sky will be a very different business in 5 years anyway, and this kind of speculation is obviously premature. Make no mistake, Sky will fight tooth and nail to keep rugby (and rightly so)...but the more we can diversify our revenue streams and strengthen/deepen our relationships with our customers the easier it will be in the hypothetical where we have to give up the rugby for 5 years due to price.

[airedale]

Meanwhile all this speculative/analytical conjecture has frightened the punters. Since midday the SP has dropped from 18.8 to 18.6 cents. I was hoping that it would crack 19 cents today.;). Perhaps tomorrow....or next week.

[Ogg]

My instant reaction is we absolutely need to hold on to rugby. But actually running numbers from the full year result... Just for fun

Customer split by content:
10% Sport only
31% Entertainment only
59% Both Sport and Entertainment

Assume we lose the rugby. Worst case MAY be...
Lose all the Sport only Subscribers and Half of the Entertainment and Sport (29.5% + 10%), total 40% loss.

Currently 585m customers mean we would shed 234k customers.

@ average ARPU of $82 per month

= 234,000 x $82 x 12
= $230m shortfall on revenue

BUT

Save $100m on content costs
And maybe $50m?? on production

Leaves only a $80m hole in the bottom line. But still not great...

Simplified analysis, I know but back of the fag pack stuff

Just lol.

You won't lose 40% when the cricket loss was virtually zero.

[mistaTea]

My instant reaction is we absolutely need to hold on to rugby. But actually running numbers from the full year result... Just for fun

Customer split by content:
10% Sport only
31% Entertainment only
59% Both Sport and Entertainment

Assume we lose the rugby. Worst case MAY be...
Lose all the Sport only Subscribers and Half of the Entertainment and Sport (29.5% + 10%), total 40% loss.

Currently 585m customers mean we would shed 234k customers.

@ average ARPU of $82 per month

= 234,000 x $82 x 12
= $230m shortfall on revenue

BUT

Save $100m on content costs
And maybe $50m?? on production

Leaves only a $80m hole in the bottom line. But still not great...

Simplified analysis, I know but back of the fag pack stuff

The issue I have with this is the part where we guesstimate that a high percentage of customers with Entertainment + Sport will cancel the entire sub.

I think a decent amount of them would drop the Sport component, but if they also enjoy the entertainment bundles why would loss of rugby make them get rid of that? It won't affect their enjoyment of UKTV, Living Channel, live news, Food Network, Discovery, History Channel etc.

And in some cases Sky may even be able to offer 'sweet deals' to encourage those who drop the sport component to spend some of their savings on other content like Movies, SOHO etc.

Even to suggest that the entire 10% of Sport-only subs will cancel is incredible. Not everyone has Sky Sport for rugby...Sky has a very big range of sport available. I know of people who subscribe primarily for NRL...others for super cars.

Loss of rugby would cause a drop in subs, but nowhere near what your 'back of the fag pack' suggests in my view.

[Ogg]

Look what happened with Covid.

ALL SPORTS WERE GONE AND NOBODY CANCELED!!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Almost-confused]

Sure. I was simply putting some numbers together.

Put another way. If you believe the cost saving from losing rugby is $150m per annum, then break even is 152m customers or 26% of current satellite base.

[Almost-confused]

Agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't think this will happen. I was just trying to demonstrate a worst case scenario with numbers.

[Ogg]

Agree. Don't get me wrong, I don't think this will happen. I was just trying to demonstrate a worst case scenario with numbers.

At the end of the day it's two things:

A) People still watch TV
B) Most people don't care about rugby.

Just need to let the cash cow continue to milk. The last 3 years with Martin has been a side show. Things are back on track now.

[Ogg]

Where are we at again? A x2 Ebita valuation with soon to be no debt??

[DownTownJr]

I'm just here for the ride to $1 a share.

[Quantitative Easing]

Relax guys. Watching the sky share price is like watching test cricket. Today was the afternoon session on day 2, not much in the way of action. Things will get exciting once we get into day 4 and 5. Sophie Moloney is a good captain. She has the magic touch. Sophie has the same mongrel and winning instinct as James Moloney.

[Ogg]

Sophie Moloney is a good captain. She has the magic touch.

https://i.imgur.com/TItvvHD.jpg

[Tappers12]

I believe SKY will determine whether or not to keep rugby based on the ABs performances over the next 2 years. The ABs have dominated the sport over the last decade even more than before. There has been a decline, understandably, due to retirements and there hasnt seemed to be too many players stepping up to replace them.

I think SKY will review performances and will not over pay next time round for rights if NZRU main selling point is underperforming.

They still have years and years of content of ABs whipping the world over and could pour their concentration into rugby league like someone else mentioned. Would still give rugby loving fans love content at a tenth of the cost

[Dlownz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367378
More good news.
The biggy for me is HBO. Does anyone know when those rights expire

[Shareguy]

The good news keeps coming.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367378

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/367378
More good news.
The biggy for me is HBO. Does anyone know when those rights expire

From memory Sky renewed HBO in 2018 when fellet was still CEO.

If the deal is 5 years then we should be good to 2023.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Viacom deal is good news, given they are launching the direct to consumer Paramount+ streaming service in the USA.

However the deal doesn't seem to include everything - as I've noticed that one of Viacoms biggest franchises, Star Trek, ends up on either Netflix (ST: Discovery) or Amazon Prime (ST: Picard, ST: lower decks) here in New Zealand instead of Sky's platforms.

[Tripp]

Viacom deal is good news, given they are launching the direct to consumer Paramount+ streaming service in the USA.

However the deal doesn't seem to include everything - as I've noticed that one of Viacoms biggest franchises, Star Trek, ends up on either Netflix (ST: Discovery) or Amazon Prime (ST: Picard, ST: lower decks) here in New Zealand instead of Sky's platforms.
Reason for that is content deals, Netflix has the rights to ST discovery in international markets for now, same with Amazon etc. Deals expire at some stage, companies put in their offer, rights get assigned again.
Netflix is a good example of buying up international rights where CBS online service is only in the US etc. In fact the money paid by netflix for international rights for ST Discovery bank rolled the production cost of season 1 (i think CBS made a profit from netflix for startrek).

Also content rights are sold by country etc, Netflix might have rights to a show but only in set countries (i.e. nz might have it but AU netflix won't). Rights for Media content is all over the place, you need to buy rights for steaming, TV/set top box etc.

Rights even go as far down as "how you stream the content" i.e. there could be rights that you can stream it at home (wifi connection, fibre) however you can't stream it over mobile networks. With rights like this you could have 1 company that has streaming rights to a phone/tablet however they don't have streaming rights to a TV.

[mistaTea]

Rights even go as far down as "how you stream the content" i.e. there could be rights that you can stream it at home (wifi connection, fibre) however you can't stream it over mobile networks.

Yeah and that’s why we don’t have a Sky GO stand-alone offer...yet.

Most of the contracts we have allow Sky to stream the content on Sky GO so long as it is a companion to the satellite offering. But the content cannot be streamed on Sky GO as the primary.

The deals get more complex that most people appreciate. I believe Sky is working on these contracts so that Sky GO can be offered as a stand-alone.

Money is being invested in replatforming and updating Sky GO, NEON and Sky Sport NOW...so hopefully once this work is complete it coincides with the ability to offer Sky GO as a stand-alone product. I think it will be popular as a better, more convenient system for people with good internet (and cheaper too as there won’t be a MySky fee etc).

[Ogg]

Vocus NZ presentation

https://vocuscommunications.gcs-web.com/static-files/592b461f-7268-45fe-9e58-fbc6bd438f23

Only $65m EBITA...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[bottomfeeder]

Im sick of looking at Nicholas Cage laughing.

[Jay]

Im sick of looking at Nicholas Cage laughing.
You and I both!

[mistaTea]

Vocus NZ presentation

https://vocuscommunications.gcs-web.com/static-files/592b461f-7268-45fe-9e58-fbc6bd438f23

Only $65m EBITA...



Just read the presentation. Lots of slides and graphics, that don't really tell me a whole lot.

But I see they see their continued pursuit of 'the bundle' as a key growth and retention driver. Hence the partnership with Sky.

Sky can't afford to buy Vocus by the looks of things, so what is the next theory Ogg?

If Sky Broadband is successful, Vocus NZ buy Sky after their IPO?


https://tenor.com/view/mexican-laugh-laugh-laughing-laughing-hysterically-laughing-crying-gif-14871471

[RGR367]

The good news keep coming? Not lifting the price today though.
We need a better buy story :cool:

[Ogg]

Im sick of looking at Nicholas Cage laughing.


You and I both!

https://i.imgur.com/sSzIe16.gif

[Ogg]

................

[mistaTea]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-55739343


Aha! So that's why he 'resigned' so suddenly!

[Ogg]

Discovery on a big hiring spree:

https://cdn.fullscreen.nz/aem/corporate/MEDIA_RELEASE_DISCOVERY_NZ_WELCOMES_SIX_NEW_APPOIN TMENTS_TO_ITS_COMMERCIAL_DIVISION_04.02.pdf

Loads of new jobs listed.

https://careers.tv3.co.nz/search/page/0


Discovery Inc is the world's #1 pay-TV programmer reaching 2.7 billion subscribers in more than 220 countries and territories. Global Technology & Operations provides technological infrastructure and operations support to ensure audiences can enjoy Discovery's programming around the world and across platforms. Already a leader in the factual and lifestyle genres, Discovery has expanded its core business into new genres: sports, entertainment and kids. Its platforms and product eco-systems are now engaged in terrestrial/free-to-air, OTT products and content development/production companies.


expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded

[jimdog31]

Aha! So that's why he 'resigned' so suddenly!

hahaha. Got me

[nztx]

Discovery on a big hiring spree:

https://cdn.fullscreen.nz/aem/corporate/MEDIA_RELEASE_DISCOVERY_NZ_WELCOMES_SIX_NEW_APPOIN TMENTS_TO_ITS_COMMERCIAL_DIVISION_04.02.pdf

Loads of new jobs listed.

https://careers.tv3.co.nz/search/page/0


expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded expanded


Stop it -- the punters may be interpreting the Expanded part as something else .. ;)

What did 'Expanded' mean last time to Sky's loyal followers with an iron in the fire ? ;)

[Baa_Baa]

Ogg speaks = sp goes down
Ogg quiet = sp goes up

Sshhh Ogg, you’re not helping

[mistaTea]

Ogg speaks = sp goes down
Ogg quiet = sp goes up

Sshhh Ogg, you’re not helping

This is actually true.

[mistaTea]

More proof today that when Ogg shuts his pie hole the SKT shares go up.

NZ50 is even down slightly today...

[nztx]

might be a takeover on after all .. ;)

[Ogg]

Sshhh Ogg, you’re not helping


More proof today that when Ogg shuts his pie hole the SKT shares go up.



https://i.pinimg.com/originals/ff/99/8f/ff998f43bffe9ed1010f73fcbb2f9cfb.gif


Get Ready for Your Streaming Services to Merge!

https://gizmodo.com/get-ready-for-your-streaming-services-to-merge-1846253151

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nbcuniversals-streaming-strategy-raise-prospect-of-warnermedia-merger
(https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nbcuniversals-streaming-strategy-raise-prospect-of-warnermedia-merger)
Comcast (owner of NBCUniversal) wants to strike deals to broaden Peacock’s distribution.

"strike deals"

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAUhttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU


Streaming companies in or soon to be in NZ:

Netflix, Disney+, HBOmax, PeacockTV, Paramount+, Discovery+, DAZN, Amazon Prime

Then there's:

https://dvh1deh6tagwk.cloudfront.net/finder-us/wp-uploads/sites/2/2018/09/neon-featured-image.png

Just LOL if Sky thinks they can compete:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

Time for Sky to look for a buyer and sell to the highest bidder.

30c+ a share minimum

https://images.gr-assets.com/hostedimages/1580080789ra/28848006.gif



Cliff notes for low IQ lurkers:


Streaming companies are merging
Cashed up parent companies are looking for customers to buy
Sky has 1 million customers for sale

[Ogg]

Conspiracy theory #97436:

Sky is spinning off Neon:

https://i.imgur.com/SuB3RXp.jpg

Or is it just another cleaning company?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[nztx]

Too many T/o proposals to consider here - Ogg .. the mind is starting to boogle & hurt .. ;)

[winner69]

Roy Morgan put this chart out showing subscription numbers in NZ

SKY the only one going backwards

[peat]

while that's obviously not ideal but it's not a huge reduction in numbers. Sky probably get a lot more revenue per customer than the others.
And it is priced in already ?
I think there will be further churn as people get sick of their current choice and try another. Bored with Netflix yet?
And sport is different eh? Australian open for instance - on now.

Disc. Half a long position

[Ogg]

Roy Morgan put this chart out showing subscription numbers in NZ

SKY the only one going backwards

https://www.roymorgan.com/findings/8623-new-zealand-pay-tv-services-december-2020-202102150627


“Also in a strong position in the market is Sky which includes under its banner Sky TV, the Sky Sport Now sports streaming service (formerly FAN PASS) and the Neon streaming service. During mid-2020 Sky purchased the Lightbox streaming service and merged this into Neon in June 2020. Across these different services Sky now attracts an audience of 1,248,000 viewers – around one-in-three New Zealanders.”

Subscribers drops by 3%. Market reaction: "OMG IT'S THE TIATNIC! Quick lets get out of Sky and pile into MyFood Bag because of growth."

"GROWTH"...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Tripp]

Roy Morgan put this chart out showing subscription numbers in NZ

SKY the only one going backwards
This can happen most years depending on the sports that are currently on. There are a lot few people that close/hold their sky account when rugby etc has finished.

[mistaTea]

When he says 1.2M viewers I think he means subs?

Each sub will have multiple ‘viewers’ in the household - and Sky reaches a lot more than 1.2M people.

1.2M subs sounds about right based on the last sub numbers, and the growth in both streaming and satellite since then.

[Dlownz]

Also something to mention in all of this is spark doesn't even feature. Still too scared to release numbers.

[Ogg]

When he says 1.2M viewers I think he means subs?

Each sub will have multiple ‘viewers’ in the household - and Sky reaches a lot more than 1.2M people.

1.2M subs sounds about right based on the last sub numbers, and the growth in both streaming and satellite since then.

No way there's 1.2m subs. Be lucky if it's still 1m.

They sell data so are likely just making sh*t up:

https://store.roymorgan.com/product/-Sky-TV-inc.-Neon-Customers-Profile-13668

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Roy Morgan put this chart out showing subscription numbers in NZ

SKY the only one going backwards

They are only counting streaming viewers here (including SkyGo), and have excluded all those (the majority) that only watch via satellite boxes.

[mistaTea]

That would make a lot more sense.

Otherwise those numbers just don’t add up.

[Quantitative Easing]

Few days ago i was walking around the viaduct after work and walked past Jeff Latch, Scotty Stevenson and Melody Robinson. They seemed quite stressed and agitated. Maybe Spark Sport is struggling to make money? Wouldn't be surprised if Spark Sport will be gone in 4 years.

[Dlownz]

Few days ago i was walking around the viaduct after work and walked past Jeff Latch, Scotty Stevenson and Melody Robinson. They seemed quite stressed and agitated. Maybe Spark Sport is struggling to make money? Wouldn't be surprised if Spark Sport will be gone in 4 years.

Have you listened to the yachting commentary on tv1 with them on it. It's bloody terrible. It actually made the americas cup worst. But then I discovered its streamed on YouTube and the commentators are much better. I can finally relax when I watch it rather than swearing at the crappy commentating.
Scotty Stevenson should have stuck with rugby he's crap at everything else

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/infratil-nudges-up-guidance-new-boss-drops-strong-hints-at-takeover-targets/N3PBHTKW7LHXATNLXYWI2PWFCI/

Speculation that IFT could make a play for Vocus.

Perhaps they are going to make a play for Vocus NZ and head off the IPO.

[Slim]

For IFT to buy Vocus NZ for their infrastructure i.e subsea cable - surely the comcom would make them divest the retail arm, namely the broadband. How about SKT buys Vocus NZ then onsells the physical assets i.e the cable which is surely where alot of the capital is tie up within. But then again, the media has specualted so a deal is likely already in the works and I would hate to see SKT's negotiating team come against IFT, no guesses who gets the best deal here...

[nztx]

Do SKY have any Acquisitive skillsets in their chairs ? have we seen anything yet that looks like some ? ;)

[Quantitative Easing]

I think Mr Chris Keall lurks on this thread. Welcome good sir.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/winners-and-losers-in-latest-nz-streaming-survey/VSI2MF6MITDXPO3VP2T7SMQL4A/

[Quantitative Easing]

We need some journalists on our side. Spark has bought NZ herald and TVNZ as their propaganda machine.

"There are no facts, only interpretations" - Friedrich Nietzsche

[airedale]

We need some journalists on our side. Spark has bought NZ herald and TVNZ as their propaganda machine.

"There are no facts, only interpretations" - Friedrich Nietzsche I think that Nietzshe could have fronted for Trumps "fake news" press conferences.

[mistaTea]

I think Mr Chris Keall lurks on this thread. Welcome good sir.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/winners-and-losers-in-latest-nz-streaming-survey/VSI2MF6MITDXPO3VP2T7SMQL4A/

Chris Keall only ever writes negative press about Sky. Even when the news is good, he will find a way to put a negative slant on it.

So far as his articles go, this one actually isn’t so bad. Sure, he makes a point of kneeing Sky in the groin and then finishing off with some punches to the back of the head...but that’s pretty good relative to his usual stuff!

Most of what he writes seems to be his own personal opinion. Of course, he does not flag his articles as Opinion pieces and his articles tend to be a muddle of facts and his own views of what he ‘reckons’ sounds about right.

I like to think that most people read his stuff with a big pinch of salt, but I am probably wrong about that.
He doesn’t know nearly as much about the industry as he makes out.

When he hits a gap in his knowledge, he has a tendency to fill in the gap my just making it up based on what ‘sounds about right’ to him from what I have been able to ascertain.

For example, when Sky purchased lighbox our streaming subs went up significantly over night. He reported on that fact but then added something along the lines of “but not so fast, customers currently get Lightbox for free from Spark so it is not known how many of these Spark subs will actually be paying customers once the service is merged”. Ummmm, all of them will be paying customers from Sky’s perspective you numbnuts - Spark pay Sky $9.99 per month for each sub, regardless of whether they recoup the costs from their own customer (which they do anyway).
He didn’t know what he was talking about so, rather than ask Spark and/or Sky for clarification, he just decided to make it up.

On more positive news, only 4 business days to go until we get the HY results and see Sophie on action.

Will it just be a run of the mill presso with nothing new? Or will she have some goodies for us as she makes a concerted effort to get off on the right foot with shareholders from the beginning?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Chris Keall only ever writes negative press about Sky. Even when the news is good, he will find a way to put a negative slant on it.

So far as his articles go, this one actually isn’t so bad. Sure, he makes a point of kneeing Sky in the groin and then finishing off with some punches to the back of the head...but that’s pretty good relative to his usual stuff!

Most of what he writes seems to be his own personal opinion. Of course, he does not flag his articles as Opinion pieces and his articles tend to be a muddle of facts and his own views of what he ‘reckons’ sounds about right.

I like to think that most people read his stuff with a big pinch of salt, but I am probably wrong about that.
He doesn’t know nearly as much about the industry as he makes out.

When he hits a gap in his knowledge, he has a tendency to fill in the gap my just making it up based on what ‘sounds about right’ to him from what I have been able to ascertain.

For example, when Sky purchased lighbox our streaming subs went up significantly over night. He reported on that fact but then added something along the lines of “but not so fast, customers currently get Lightbox for free from Spark so it is not known how many of these Spark subs will actually be paying customers once the service is merged”. Ummmm, all of them will be paying customers from Sky’s perspective you numbnuts - Spark pay Sky $9.99 per month for each sub, regardless of whether they recoup the costs from their own customer (which they do anyway).
He didn’t know what he was talking about so, rather than ask Spark and/or Sky for clarification, he just decided to make it up.

On more positive news, only 4 business days to go until we get the HY results and see Sophie on action.

Will it just be a run of the mill presso with nothing new? Or will she have some goodies for us as she makes a concerted effort to get off on the right foot with shareholders from the beginning?

He has completely flubbed his understanding by the stats in his own article: The Sky number he presents is "subscriptions" - while the survey he quotes is "viewers" (there is no way the surveys estimate is accurate if it is including all sky subscriptions including Satellite customers)

The sky subscriber number would have at least 2 viewers per subscription, likely closer to 3 - does anyone know if sky has estimated viewers per subscription recently? in any case using a conservative estimate of 2 per subscription/household, would place sky with ~2 million viewers at least.

[Quantitative Easing]

On more positive news, only 4 business days to go until we get the HY results and see Sophie on action.

Will it just be a run of the mill presso with nothing new? Or will she have some goodies for us as she makes a concerted effort to get off on the right foot with shareholders from the beginning?

She will do really well. She's really talented and has the magic touch. Wouldn't be surprised if the Sky stock mints new millionaires couple of years down the track. GLTAH.

[Ogg]

see Sophie in action.


Sophie has the magic touch.

You god dam perverts!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'm seeing the initial plans for a "Covid vaccine passport" now being rolled out around the world, which should enable quarantine free travel for those that have been vaccinated. this bodes well for global sport returning back to normal with the likelihood of open borders again meaning sky sport content should see much less disruptions in 2nd half of 2021. Would be worth NZ rugby switching the 2nd half of Super Rugby (the trans Tasman games) and the NZ regional championship around.

So Super Rugby Aotearoa first, followed by The Mitre10 cup (maybe throw in a 3 match north vs south featuring allblacks), then the quad-nations, then SuperRugby AUS/NZ.

[Quantitative Easing]

Up 0.4 cents today out of the blue. What a surprise. Guess this bad boy can still get hard after half a bottle of whiskey. Sky stock is more entertaining than Afterpay/Zip.

[nztx]

Looks like it's eased back a little now .. ;)

probably in line with the rest retreating slightly ..

[Quantitative Easing]

Looks like it's eased back a little now .. ;)

probably in line with the rest retreating slightly ..

Yup that's the problem with too much alcohol. Won't stay hard for too long.

[Alpha]

That's ok, blue pill coming on Tuesday to help you out.

[Slim]

Updated - From the 'Craigs House View' February 19th

Consensus estimates
Target PriceAverage NZ$0.27
High NZ$0.40
Low NZ$0.16
RecommendationsBuy 3Hold 3Sell 1Total 7
Forecasts (FY+1)EPS NZ$0.02DPS NZ$0.00

[allfromacell]

This stock really baffles me, it really does. The last time I saw a stock so grossly undervalued was OCA at $0.40 when I threw all I had at it ignoring the 'dont buy a downtrend' conventional wisdom out the window... But honestly that's exactly what I'm seeing here.

The recent update has cemented it to me, this business his shown strong resilience to covid, strong evidence of profitability and big cash flow and a market price that seems irrationally scared of a demise the numbers just aren't showing. Sky with well over a million subs ain't going anywhere, it actually makes me chuckle I can continue picking up shares of such a dominant NZ name at around $300m market cap... What a gift..

I'm not arrogant enough to throw everything at this as I could perhaps be ignorantly blind to the existential threats this company faces but I just don't see it, happy to push 20% of my portfolio into such a steal.

[LEMON]

Man, I have been missing out. Neon is great. I went on it to watch Breaking bad but very much like all it's content and the layout is so much simpler and feels less cluttered than Netflix or prime.
Well done sky. I will be telling others about neon now also.

[Alpha]

Man, I have been missing out. Neon is great. I went on it to watch Breaking bad but very much like all it's content and the layout is so much simpler and feels less cluttered than Netflix or prime.
Well done sky. I will be telling others about neon now also.


agree I have Netflix as well but I’ve watched everything I like it. Then when I go to have a look for something new spend about 20mins can’t find anything good.


Neon has a lot better content and is a hell of a lot easier to use. Only thing that I find a bit annoying is on the tablet no fast forward option bar scrolling which is annoying. Also skipping the intro. I’ve recently re watch the whole series of The office every dam episode I had to guess swipe to where the start was or alternatively watch the intro every episode and I can tell you that can get a bit annoying when the episodes only last 20mins or so. So you end up watch 3/4 a night. Half the reason I like the streaming is no ads and ability to skip I intros.

if they add the skip 20 seconds forward and skip I intros. Neons platform and content ****s on the others

[HCR20]

This stock really baffles me, it really does. The last time I saw a stock so grossly undervalued was OCA at $0.40 when I threw all I had at it ignoring the 'dont buy a downtrend' conventional wisdom out the window... But honestly that's exactly what I'm seeing here.

The recent update has cemented it to me, this business his shown strong resilience to covid, strong evidence of profitability and big cash flow and a market price that seems irrationally scared of a demise the numbers just aren't showing. Sky with well over a million subs ain't going anywhere, it actually makes me chuckle I can continue picking up shares of such a dominant NZ name at around $300m market cap... What a gift..

I'm not arrogant enough to throw everything at this as I could perhaps be ignorantly blind to the existential threats this company faces but I just don't see it, happy to push 20% of my portfolio into such a steal.


I suspect that the destruction of shareholder value, in combination with their total failure to respond to changing tech, means that SKT is disliked to the extent that it is now well undervalued.

[allfromacell]

I suspect that the destruction of shareholder value, in combination with their total failure to respond to changing tech, means that SKT is disliked to the extent that it is now well undervalued.

Fair enough I guess the destruction of shareholder wealth cannot be ignored but as other posters have alluded to this afternoon, Neon is a great product and is very good value for money. Likewise is Sky Sport Now, great interface and in my opinion exceptionally good value for money considering the amount of rights Sky TV hold. So they have finally responded to changing tech.

I suspect the floor is well in for this stock and when the dividend returns investors will no longer be able to ignore the value on offer. Especially if the recent trends of satalite loyalty and streaming growth continue which I can definitely see happening as the broadband launch will make for some popular bundling options.

[HCR20]

Fair enough I guess the destruction of shareholder wealth cannot be ignored but as other posters have alluded to this afternoon, Neon is a great product and is very good value for money. Likewise is Sky Sport Now, great interface and in my opinion exceptionally good value for money considering the amount of rights Sky TV hold.

I suspect the floor is well in for this stock and when the dividend returns investors will no longer be able to ignore the value on offer. Especially if the recent trends of satalite loyalty and streaming growth continue which I can definitely see happening as the broadband launch will make for some popular bundling options.

Yep, I'm saying that this is an emotion > rationality situation.

[LEMON]

After tomorrow's announcement are we expecting some movement tomorrow guys of the SP or will it's be typical sky fashion of a great start, to a grinding halt and slow decline?

[Heimand]

After tomorrow's announcement are we expecting some movement tomorrow guys of the SP or will it's be typical sky fashion of a great start, to a grinding halt and slow decline?

Even with SKY standards, definitely we see some jump in SP. The real SP should be close to 25C.

[flyer]

I think the SP would of been going up a lot more than it has, esp the week of the announcement so either its everything we already know with no major surprises or management keeping it close to their chest with "hopefully" a big bullish kick along. 25c would be great.

[DownTownJr]

Yes. Quiet day so far and no action with the SP. This is SKY after all, so no idea what tomorrow will bring. Hopefully some good surprises and no a downward one.

[Tripp]

Yes. Quiet day so far and no action with the SP. This is SKY after all, so no idea what tomorrow will bring. Hopefully some good surprises and no a downward one.
I think some of the issues are that "some" news media outlets just don't like sky, even if it's good news they will put their own bad spin on it (when they don't understand the underlying numbers etc. Good example is lightbox and paying subs).

Sky isn't going to go away, people are slowly understanding that more media streaming services = greater cost of viewing what you want (i.e. different programs movies on different platforms needing a fee for each).
I find Neon a lot better when it comes to new released movies and TV shows where netflix has older stuff, disney+ has limited content at the moment, prime video has a couple of good shows but then a lot of c grade movies which are so bad that you watch 5 minutes and turn it off.

Maybe Sky needs a name changed (like telecom - spark). People still get confused and think there is some tie in with BskyB over in the UK and some people just hate sky.

Time will tell i guess.

[DownTownJr]

Yes I'm the laughing stock around my group of fiends for investing in "boomer stock SKT" a name change I thought would have been good for their business, but guessing since they have naming right for the cake tin in Wellington a name change is completely off the cards. In saying that SKT is a household name, that I guess many... hate.

Oh well. In saying that the numbers are looking good. The company is making money and it's only a matter of time for the baby to take a little lift. Gltah tomorrow.

[Zaphod]

Yes I'm the laughing stock around my group of fiends for investing in "boomer stock SKT" a name change I thought would have been good for their business, but guessing since they have naming right for the cake tin in Wellington a name change is completely off the cards. In saying that SKT is a household name, that I guess many... hate.

Oh well. In saying that the numbers are looking good. The company is making money and it's only a matter of time for the baby to take a little lift. Gltah tomorrow.

Don't worry, I was a laughing stock for suggesting that disintermediation of broadcasting would result in the same or higher costs for consumers than what they were paying for Sky now. As Tripp has outlined in the post above, that's what has been happening. I thought it was a natural progression of how the industry evolved, but many did or probably still do not. I suspect a natural consolidation process will occur in the future.

[HCR20]

Yes I'm the laughing stock around my group of fiends for investing in "boomer stock SKT" a name change I thought would have been good for their business, but guessing since they have naming right for the cake tin in Wellington a name change is completely off the cards. In saying that SKT is a household name, that I guess many... hate.

Oh well. In saying that the numbers are looking good. The company is making money and it's only a matter of time for the baby to take a little lift. Gltah tomorrow.

This type of anecdote adds further support to my thesis that SKT has been oversold on emotive and irrational grounds. Maybe SKT is NZs GME??

[DownTownJr]

This type of anecdote adds further support to my thesis that SKT has been oversold on emotive and irrational grounds. Maybe SKT is NZs GME??

Oh totally just without the massive shorts. Any thread relating to SKT outside of ST/HC is always met with negativity. The SP has totally been oversold on irrational grounds. Previous holders who have been holding Sky from the early days will still be experiencing massive pains, so I can't blame some for the hate they might hold towards Sky.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

So half year results announcement tomorrow. With the recent guidance updates there shouldn't be too many surprises.

The technicals are in a strong bullish setup with the recent confirmation of a monthly uptrend, as well as a weekly bull flag now formed. The small pullback from the high strongly favours continuation. I think we need bit of a catalyst with more positive info in tomorrows update. Discussion around dividends would be one thing that'd certainly do it.

Still a lot of bag holders from over the years so this can create quite a lot of resistance on its way up (we have seen this already).

[Alpha]

My prediction result are great actually better than great.

Marked reaction SP will drop.

[Getty]

I'm not saying get rid of sport, I'm saying get rid of NZ made sport and replace it with snooker, dart or bowel re-runs from overseas.

All Blacks and the domestic NZ rugby is just a waste of money.

Bowel Re runs?

Theres no need to get sh**ty!

[Waltzing]

"All Blacks and the domestic NZ rugby is just a waste of money."

that would be like me saying to the Swed's dont whatch ice hockey..


i know sweds here who somehow used to get video tapes sent over back in the 1990's here so they could get some of their habit ..


they got very grumpy if they could not whatch ice hockey..


DESC: dont whatch either myself but you dont want to make the native unhappy no matter where you live.

[Getty]

Bowel Re runs?

Theres no need to get sh**ty!

It must be a new version of pump & dump!

[Ogg]

True story:

-Old man has Spark Sport
-Barely ever watches it
-NZ VS Australia cricket is on
-Old man wants to watch it
-Spark Sport doesn't work
-Old man calls me on phone
-"Spark Sport doesn't work"
-I drive over to his house
-Enter password
-works facepalm.jpg
-I drive home
-Switch to channel One
-NZ VS Australia cricket is on
-mfw...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[ados_nz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/368002

[ados_nz]

Revenue from continuing operations: $356,870 (7.3% decrease)
Total Revenue: $356,870 (7.3% decrease)

Net profit/(loss) from continuing operations: $39,427 (236.6% increase)
Total net profit/(loss): $39,581 (233.5% increase)

[bull....]

sky say we listed to everyone in our surveys and we heard what you want
a third want us to do nothing the rest want us to update our gadgets , so we will update our gadgets lol

[silu]

This is so criminally undervalued. Should be at least 26c even with the stench of a failing business hanging around it. The market values SKT as if there is no way for them to pivot in the future. I only ever bought one large parcel at 16c but I will hold on to them for as long as I believe that I am right.

[silu]

True story:

-Old man has Spark Sport
-Barely ever watches it
-NZ VS Australia cricket is on
-Old man wants to watch it
-Spark Sport doesn't work
-Old man calls me on phone
-"Spark Sport doesn't work"
-I drive over to his house
-Enter password
-works facepalm.jpg
-I drive home
-Switch to channel One
-NZ VS Australia cricket is on
-mfw...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

I only found out it was on free-to-air when none of my mates called me wanting to come over to watch. As the resident single man I have access to all the apps and toys helping my suffering married friends with kids out.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

They say planning to reinvest FCF for the remainder on F21, with dividends looked at after that. They have a very strong cash position and should be generating significant free cash flow in the future.

[Dlownz]

A good result, a no surprises result due the already announced upgrades. I'd like to see revenue going up. But the broadband launch being weeks away is good. Maybe someone can ask the question at the presentation if dividends are on track for the FY due to no mention.

[Zeitgeist]

Total equity = 409,266,000
Shares on issue = 1,746,279,558

Basic net assets per share = $0.234

Current share price = $0.182

Cigarette butt?

[Ogg]

How the media will spin this:

-Women takes charge
-Net profit surges 234%


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IUB-wjXUREE

[Baa_Baa]

A good result, a no surprises result due the already announced upgrades. I'd like to see revenue going up. But the broadband launch being weeks away is good. Maybe someone can ask the question at the presentation if dividends are on track for the FY due to no mention.

Overall a very encouraging result, they make heaps of money and have a pristine balance sheet. @Dlownz you might have missed this tucked away at the very end of the presentation:



The Board currently intends to reinvest available free cash flow during the remainder of FY21, and will re-evaluate the commencement of dividends after that

[tqtq]

A painful hold but a good result. So what are we predicting? Will the share price go up or down?? I wonder if this stock is still being shorted hard?

[Waltzing]

the big question is is there upside to the share price from here or is it fairly valued.. A quick look at the balance sheet looks like they are solvent.

[sb9]

Pretty solid result and looks like this year is all about consolidation, rebuilding the company. Ms Melony is surely doing much better job for shareholders than Mr Stewart.

All going as per plan, might see sp close to 40c mark by this time next year, unless there's some corporate activity by big player.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So for this half year they just reported $39.6 million net profit.

And their full year guidance is for $37.5 - $45 million net profit.

So they are guiding for -$2.1m to +$5.4 million in net profit for the 2nd half of the financial year.

I am guessing this all has to do with the following line in the "Outlook" section:



H2 FY21 expenses will include one-off costs associated with the launch of broadband, and accelerated depreciation on legacy assets as we migrate to Sky’s new digital platform







==========

Overall the results look pretty good, and the statement that they will re-evaluate commencement of dividends after the financial year is complete in 6 months time is good news.

[tqtq]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124318399/sky-televisions-interim-profit-jumps-to-40m

[tqtq]

the big question is is there upside to the share price from here or is it fairly valued..

I think 7 - 10x earnings is the industry norm

[Waltzing]

10X ? you mean P/E

they look solvent on the balance sheet for current assets/liabilities.

[tqtq]

10X ? you mean P/E

they look solvent on the balance sheet for current assets/liabilities.

Yep – that's what I mean

[tqtq]

Downrampers: https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/229168

[Ferg]

Total equity = 409,266,000
Shares on issue = 1,746,279,558

Basic net assets per share = $0.234

Current share price = $0.182

Equity $409,266
Less:

Intangibles $57,357
ROU Assets $81,978
Goodwill $256,312
Add back:

Current Lease Liabilities $41,219
Term Lease Liabilities $52,664
Net Tangible Assets = $107,502
NTA per share = 6.15c

[Waltzing]

dont know if a traditional NTA is applicable for this tech company because thats what it is..

Nta is great for buildings and farms.

[mistaTea]

In previous reports, the 'satellite' customer numbers included Vodafone TV.

This always seemed weird to me, as VTV is a streaming service.

Looking at the fineprint on Page 7 of the presso... the VTV customers are now included in the streaming numbers.

So that means that their direct satellite subs must have grown substantially indeed to hit 565K after deducting VTV customers that are now included in the streaming numbers.

To lift the subs that high ARPU has fallen of course, but ARPU was always going to have to give way to stabilise the base. I expect ARPU to fall further by the FY results, but satellite subs to increase further too.

Overall, I think a very good result.

[mistaTea]

dont know if a traditional NTA is applicable for this tech company because thats what it is..

Nta is great for buildings and farms.

Agreed, a meaningless metric for Sky.

[Akane]

The stock price went up a tiny bit, then back down lol.

I don't understand markets anymore.

[DownTownJr]

The stock price went up a tiny bit, then back down lol.

I don't understand markets anymore.

Lol here's hoping it's still early days. The market confuses me. Oh well, I'm not selling my Sky shares, the result is a good one. We just need a divi and broadband to get the ball really rolling.

[bull....]

market already priced it in.

Anyway who seriously believes sky is anything other than a trade? no way long term they compete against disney/netflix ... no way

[LEMON]

market already priced it in.
Anyway who seriously believes sky is anything other than a trade? no way long term they compete against disney/netflix ... no way

Disney and Netflix are boring I watch them for free through family members too much of regurgitated crap. After being on neon I will pay to be a subscriber.
Great choice of tv and movies.

[mistaTea]

market already priced it in.

Anyway who seriously believes sky is anything other than a trade? no way long term they compete against disney/netflix ... no way

I think Disney etc may find their way back to Sky via co-exclusive deals.

Loads of people would prefer to aggregate Disney with the rest of their Sky content (just using Disney as one example).

Makes the rights cheaper for Sky too...

[sb9]

Listening to conf call, CEO notes are pretty hard hitting, genuine and very KIWI like...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

LOL at "Co-exclusivity" - an oxymoron if I ever heard one.

("No Honey I'm not cheating on you, you have co-exclusivity with Jeff from down the road")

[LaserEyeKiwi]

In previous reports, the 'satellite' customer numbers included Vodafone TV.

This always seemed weird to me, as VTV is a streaming service.

Looking at the fineprint on Page 7 of the presso... the VTV customers are now included in the streaming numbers.

So that means that their direct satellite subs must have grown substantially indeed to hit 565K after deducting VTV customers that are now included in the streaming numbers.

To lift the subs that high ARPU has fallen of course, but ARPU was always going to have to give way to stabilise the base. I expect ARPU to fall further by the FY results, but satellite subs to increase further too.

Overall, I think a very good result.

There was a setup where customers had the normal sky satellite boxes (& dishes) and sky satellite channel packages, but they were billed through Vodafone as part of a package offering by Vodafone.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think Disney etc may find their way back to Sky via co-exclusive deals.

Loads of people would prefer to aggregate Disney with the rest of their Sky content (just using Disney as one example).

Makes the rights cheaper for Sky too...

Disney has no incentive to do this - Disney+ is on pace to match/surpass Netflix worldwide - and due to incompetence Sky doesn't even have a set top box where it can offer to resell others streaming apps/services, and instead has to go through other 3rd parties to get its own streaming products onto consumer streaming platforms.

[mistaTea]

There was a setup where customers had the normal sky satellite boxes (& dishes) and sky satellite channel packages, but they were billed through Vodafone as part of a package offering by Vodafone.

Yes the Vodafone reseller arrangement is totally separate to VTV.

The re-seller arrangement has been ended, but VTV lives on.

Those VTV numbers used to also be categorised as 'satellite'.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes the Vodafone reseller arrangement is totally separate to VTV.

The re-seller arrangement has been ended, but VTV lives on.

Those VTV numbers used to also be categorised as 'satellite'.

With Streaming ARPU being only $18, there cant be many VTV subs on there...?

[RTM]

The stock price went up a tiny bit, then back down lol.

I don't understand markets anymore.

I look at it this way.
SKY annoyed a lot of their old shareholders when they had a cash raise at what was it ? 12/13 cents ?
A lot of new holders bought in post that in the 13 - 14 c range. These folk are sitting on a nice gain. ¬ 30% in less than 6 months. I am one of them.
There is nothing in the result to set the world on fire. Its a steady as she goes result.
So some investors are still quite suspicious of SKY, others are happyish to sell at 18 / 19 + cents for a solid short term gain.

And then there is the question as to whether they can withstand the SPARK SPORT / NETFLIX / DISNEY etc assault. Used to think not, but changed my thinking a little as its REALLY annoying having to subscribe to multiple vendors...and we aren't a huge market.

On top of that a lot of subscribers who may also be investors don't have a lot of love for the company...historically they have been treated poorly IMO.

Summary...not a lot of love for the company and they are going to need to get some significant runs on the board to get the SP up a lot further.
Dividend might help....and of course Ogg's takeover rumours.

I am holding for now.

[mistaTea]

With Streaming ARPU being only $18, there cant be many VTV subs on there...?

Yeah thats a good point.

I don't think VTV has really 'taken off'. Perhaps people prefer to have a Sky Box.

Sub numbers must be low indeed given the minimal impact on ARPU. I wonder if Vodafone will eventually ditch the project.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think after listening to that call I would say the stock is significantly undervalued.

yes the first 6 months received some one off benefits that improved profits (much lower content costs, while subscribers for the most part kept paying while valuable content was temporarily delayed) - but the 2nd half is going to be impacted by significant one off costs that will depress net profit to somewhere between a small loss and +$5 million.

So I think going forward, given the slow decline in sat customers, combined with some new revenue streams slowly growing and operating expenses and interest costs falling, I think its probably somewhat safe to assume that Net profit will continue in the $35 million+ range in the years to come, which represent an earnings multiple of less than 10x at current price.

I think once dividends restart (hopefully announced in 6 months time) that will be the moment that the share price really kicks in. anything close to 90-100% payout rate would see the share price really take off with a 10% yield at current valuation.

[sb9]

I think after listening to that call I would say the stock is significantly undervalued.

yes the first 6 months received some one off benefits that improved profits (much lower content costs, while subscribers for the most part kept paying while valuable content was temporarily delayed) - but the 2nd half is going to be impacted by significant one off costs that will depress net profit to somewhere between a small loss and +$5 million.

So I think going forward, given the slow decline in sat customers, combined with some new revenue streams slowly growing and operating expenses and interest costs falling, I think its probably somewhat safe to assume that Net profit will continue in the $35 million+ range in the years to come, which represent an earnings multiple of less than 10x at current price.

I think once dividends restart (hopefully announced in 6 months time) that will be the moment that the share price really kicks in. anything close to 90-100% payout rate would see the share price really take off with a 10% yield at current valuation.

Agree on all your points, however Sophie clearly mentioned in the call that dividends are out until FY 22. So nothing on that front for another 12 to 18 month I reckon. If someone is looking to invest for short term dividends, they're going to be disappointed.

[mistaTea]

I think after listening to that call I would say the stock is significantly undervalued.

yes the first 6 months received some one off benefits that improved profits (much lower content costs, while subscribers for the most part kept paying while valuable content was temporarily delayed) - but the 2nd half is going to be impacted by significant one off costs that will depress net profit to somewhere between a small loss and +$5 million.

So I think going forward, given the slow decline in sat customers, combined with some new revenue streams slowly growing and operating expenses and interest costs falling, I think its probably somewhat safe to assume that Net profit will continue in the $35 million+ range in the years to come, which represent an earnings multiple of less than 10x at current price.

I think once dividends restart (hopefully announced in 6 months time) that will be the moment that the share price really kicks in. anything close to 90-100% payout rate would see the share price really take off with a 10% yield at current valuation.

Also, remember that underlying Depreciation/Amortisation will sit around $80M-90M for the full year (after deducting the lease costs under IFRS16).

But actual Capex is only half of that.

So if GAAP earnings stabilise somewhere between $30M-40M, that means FCF will hold at somewhere between $70M-$80M.

A 3c dividend will be about $52M (or 65% - 74% of FCF, depending on earnings).

That would imply 30c per share for those looking for a 10% yield.

Or 39c per share if the market had more faith in Sky as a Going Concern and would take a 7.5% yield.

[DownTownJr]

So what's the play here, accumulate more shares until the release of broadband + divi? A share buyback today while undervalued would of been awesome. Sky is clearly undervalued, but all it takes is for a quick read on FB to see people's negative sentiment towards Sky.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Agree on all your points, however Sophie clearly mentioned in the call that dividends are out until FY 22. So nothing on that front for another 12 to 18 month I reckon. If someone is looking to invest for short term dividends, they're going to be disappointed.

FY22 starts July 1st 2021 - I would expect a forecast for FY22 Dividend amounts to be included in the outlook at the next earnings release in 6 months time.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Also, remember that underlying Depreciation/Amortisation will sit around $80M-90M for the full year (after deducting the lease costs under IFRS16).

But actual Capex is only half of that.

So if GAAP earnings stabilise somewhere between $30M-40M, that means FCF will hold at somewhere between $70M-$80M.

A 3c dividend will be about $52M (or 65% - 74% of FCF, depending on earnings).

That would imply 30c per share for those looking for a 10% yield.

Or 39c per share if the market had more faith in Sky as a Going Concern and would take a 7.5% yield.

A 3c dividend would be fantastic!

[sb9]

FY22 starts July 1st 2021 - I would expect a forecast for FY22 Dividend amounts to be included in the outlook at the next earnings release in 6 months time.

I still think there's lot water go under the bridge before we get to that stage. But would be nice surprise if they can indicate that at next report.

[sb9]

So what's the play here, accumulate more shares until the release of broadband + divi? A share buyback today while undervalued would of been awesome. Sky is clearly undervalued, but all it takes is for a quick read on FB to see people's negative sentiment towards Sky.

Think the new CEO is trying hard to erase that sentiment by keep mentioning "customer focus" ahead of shareholders/investors interests.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-half-year-profit-jumps-as-streaming-business-spikes-80-per-cent/D2YD3SWJPJCC3SR6WOJALMU2UE/

I just can't believe that Chris lead with a 'positive sounding' Headline and it was NBR that led the Negativity Charge.

Almost fell off my seat!

[mistaTea]

Think the new CEO is trying hard to erase that sentiment by keep mentioning "customer focus" ahead of shareholders/investors interests.

I think they are being very restrained on CAPEX, and the permanent decreases in OPEX show that they are thinking of shareholders.

Without customers we are screwed. And Sky have performed dismally in this space (hence the ongoing negative sentiment). These things take time to change, but the plans put in place and initiatives being pursued all seem 'customer friendly'.

So let's watch this space, the next few years are going to be interesting.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I still think there's lot water go under the bridge before we get to that stage. But would be nice surprise if they can indicate that at next report.

They already said in todays report that dividend re-instatement will be re-evaluated after this FY ends (it ends in 4 months time).



The Board currently intends to reinvest available free cash flow during the remainder of FY21, and will re-evaluate the commencement of dividends after that

[Ferg]

dont know if a traditional NTA is applicable for this tech company because thats what it is..

Nta is great for buildings and farms.

Sorry, who is advocating for NTA or equity per share being applicable to SKT?

[LEMON]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-half-year-profit-jumps-as-streaming-business-spikes-80-per-cent/D2YD3SWJPJCC3SR6WOJALMU2UE/

I just can't believe that Chris lead with a 'positive sounding' Headline and it was NBR that led the Negativity Charge.

Almost fell off my seat!

When I open this NZ herald link about sky I am met with a full screen of Disney advertisement.

My suspicions were right a nice rise in SP to a halt and now a slow decline again.
The same old sky SP does the same every positive announcement.
Usually, we have seen better gains on the second day with this share, with a gradual fall over the coming days from a new high, just need to see where it goes now.

[bull....]

Potential price increases

The cost-cutting and revenue-stabilisation push could include clawing back some of the cost its new Saanzar contract, given the changed rugby landscape or, potentially, Sky Sport or Sky Sport Now price rises.
On an analyst conference call, in reponse to questions about falling average revenue per customer, Moloney noted, "Wee haven't done a price increase for some time.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-half-year-profit-jumps-as-streaming-business-spikes-80-per-cent/D2YD3SWJPJCC3SR6WOJALMU2UE/


Sky TV warns price of Sky Sport may need to rise despite profit jump

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124318399/sky-tv-warns-price-of-sky-sport-may-need-to-rise-despite-profit-jump

only way to keep the company going long term i guess. keep milking the punters

[Alpha]

how does the saying go... buy the.... sell....

Overall I am very happy with results and how things are progressing. Disappointed with how market reacts, but at the same time guess I will just have to grab a few more funds permitting. As this stock is still on a massive discount.


I continue to hold and have no plans to sell for time being.

[Alpha]

Bull you must love this stock from a trading point of view.

[bull....]

Bull you must love this stock from a trading point of view.

no need to trade it as we have a slowly grinding uptrend off higher highs and lower lows. personally its no long term hold fore ever for me though so the trade will end at some stage

[Dlownz]

Wow what a day. A no surprise result and the shares drop a cent. This stock surprises me everyday. Guidence looking good but what more can sky do. The tides turned, Everything has stabilised. I guess besides liitle bits of info during the year it's going to be a wait till the FY.

[Snow Leopard]

I have my, hopefully, long-term holding on the NZX.

But I also seem to be trading the swings on the ASX with it's half cent increments.
I have not lost on one yet [ famous last words :) ] and I have been buying on the ASX today at 16c.

[Waltzing]

this company has some work to do in finding the wind shifts on the race course... sky sport price likely to rise. Now that could hurt some people hopefully for them its only a small to pay not a punch to the head.

[Akane]

Heard on Newstalk ZB this morning, ol' Mike having a whinge about Mercury price rise, and then talks about Sky TV, moaning about Sky is in no position to even suggest a price hike due to just reruns after reruns.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I could be wrong, but I didn't get the impression that management were NOT proposing an imminent hike in sky subscription price, they were merely pointing out that they didn't raise subscription prices last year which explains some of the ARPU softness for Satellite subscribers.

I wouldn't be surprised if any price rise that did eventuate was solely on Sky Sport Now.

I also think Sky should consider bundling NEON (or at least discounting it) for Satellite Subscriber whales. Anyone who is spending more than $100 on their monthly sky bill should be getting NEON for free. eg if you are a sports subscriber with MySky box and who also has entertainment and/or movies, then just give them NEON. It will decrease churn, decrease package downgrades and encourage upselling for those that are on cheaper packages.

[winner69]

Spark pleased about their cricket .... 3 million hours of cricket viewed to date

That’s a lot of Scotty and Suzie ....jeez they are both terrible.