View Full Version : SKT Sky Network Television Limited.
Also trades (i) to (iv) were made during the restricted period as those were within 30 days of the half year results:
Clear breach of trading policy:
https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/117005/718642/MK_CorporateGovernance_Sky_Securities_Trading_Poli cy.pdf
The form needs to be resubmitted to NZX has he's selected "NO" on this part here:
Whether relevant interests were acquired or disposed of during a closed period: No
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/372318/346091.pdf
How can a director, who had inside knowledge of the half year results, buy stock a few days before the half year results are released?
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
The NZX, FMA, Sky, Sharesies, and Mr Handley need to get together and come up with a "Please Explain".
The law has been broken.
kiora
19-05-2021, 04:02 AM
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/skt.nzx-365953/
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 05:58 AM
https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/amazon-reportedly-in-talks-to-buy-james-bond-maker-mgm-for-9bn-12309699
Another takeover!!
Habits
19-05-2021, 06:18 AM
You have to sort all properties by price, then go through the listing and find where it sits compared to other properties that have shown asking pricing. Then roughly guess where it sits. It's easier to do with residential property, commercial a lot harder.
I did this but can only see that its more than the 8.5m for 33 Sale St... lets assume they sell for 10m, is that more or less than Book Value in Skys accounts and will there be a gain or loss.
Akane
19-05-2021, 08:32 AM
Geeze. Dont really follow this thing that closely. But let me get this straight. The company has a mkt cap of 300 Million, no debt and EBITDA of 40 Million for the 6 months ending 31 December. Is now offering broadband to increase stickiness of service, while also developing an inhouse streaming service via its satellite service not using Chrous or Vocus broadband which it might flip to once there is enough customer acquisition in place to pay for more R&D. On top of that, its has the international rights to televise the All Blacks, the golden gem that the owners of UFC thought they could steal from NZRU. Post Covid scare factor, when more sports are on the cards and live TV advertising is back with more international test rugby. Crikey.... This thing is crazy undervalued. The market cap on this should be at least 15 times EBITDA before all this other stuff plays out. I value this thing at a minimum of 1.2 billion or .80 cent a share. And then through in all the opportunities of growth. Yeh, I'm not surprised the big boys in US arent all over this.
Deep breath, now repeat with me............
BUT MUH NETFLICKS!
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 08:39 AM
Deep breath, now repeat with me............
BUT MUH NETFLICKS!
Netflix must be growing increasingly concerned with these mergers and takeovers. Facing off against Disney was a big enough blow.
I don't think any of this will impact Sky too much. We have already started going down the co-exclusive path with Viacom and Discovery. It's the new reality. Though I also think the more OTT services released as part of these co-exclusive deals the better our proposition looks.
Sure, you could subscribe to HULU, HBO MAX, Peacock, Discovery+ etc... or you could sign up to NEON for $16/month and get all of the main content on a single platform.
The only way things become really bad for Sky is if the bundle ceased to be the most economical way for consumers to access a broad range of quality content.
I am sure Chris Keall will be publishing a story soon though with the worst possible case scenario for Sky, and pitching the article as though this "final nail in the Sky coffin" is all but certain.
Deep breath, now repeat with me............
BUT MUH NETFLICKS!
Most people I know including me hardly watch Netflix anymore. Those that do cancel after a while and then catch up on the shows they missed. My main interests in front of the TV are gaming and watching sport (living the middle-age dream).
There ultimately will be people that are going to subscribe to Sky Sports just for a month or two while the sport they watch is on. With more live sport happening again they might keep it longer or because they got a bundled deal. This is the future of sports watching and Sky (probably with thanks to Spark Sport) finally saw the future.
Sky is priced like a business that is dying rather than re-inventing itself. Alone the name recognition is worth millions. Any future merged company would be amiss not to continue with that name.
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 08:49 AM
Sky is priced like a business that is dying rather than re-inventing itself. Alone the name recognition is worth millions. Any future merged company would be amiss not to continue with that name.
Agreed, and if I am right about an eventual merger with Vocus (it just seems like such a logical step to the existing wholesale arrangement as both businesses stand to benefit enormously from each other)...it would be insane to use anything other than the Sky brand.
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 09:50 AM
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375895-2A1298785?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
IFT paying a NZ$94M divvy! Christ, at Sky's market cap they could have bought damn near a third of the business for that! Just with the spare cash lying around!
Ogg what's going on mate? Did you not get Marko into line in the end?
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02375895-2A1298785?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4
IFT paying a NZ$94M divvy! Christ, at Sky's market cap they could have bought damn near a third of the business for that! Just with the spare cash lying around!
Ogg what's going on mate? Did you not get Marko into line in the end?
Bro, I've got a new strategy.
Sell when Handley sells, or on July 15 when his disclosure period ends.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Mr Singapore right on time.
Here you go mistaTea
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/mira-aware-super-in-2b-debt-raising-for-vocus-20210519-p57t68
$2 billion debt package. Non-investment grade.
Vocus shareholders were due to vote on the takeover on June 22. If successful, MIRA and Aware Super would take the keys on July 22.
$150 million delayed draw term loan.
Some cash left over to buy something else...
https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg
clown
19-05-2021, 03:15 PM
Another 2mil off market trade today :eek2:
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 03:24 PM
Here you go mistaTea
https://www.afr.com/street-talk/mira-aware-super-in-2b-debt-raising-for-vocus-20210519-p57t68
$2 billion debt package. Non-investment grade.
Vocus shareholders were due to vote on the takeover on June 22. If successful, MIRA and Aware Super would take the keys on July 22.
Not long now! Let’s see what happens from here and if anything interesting unfolds for us…
Not long now!
https://i.imgur.com/SXBah4g.jpg
Not long now! Let’s see what happens from here and if anything interesting unfolds for us…
It's a 7 year loan.
If they were smart they would buy Sky, change all Ocron/Slingshot/Flip/Stuff branding to Sky, then relist both entities before the loan matures.
From the scheme booklet yesterday:
Management’s direction for Vocus NZ going forward is to continue capturing market share opportunities
that exist in New Zealand by leveraging its existing network reach and capacity. Given Vocus NZ current
holds a small share (particularly within mobile and energy), which is dominated by Spark New Zealand
and Vodafone, Management sees opportunity for growth – smaller players have been taking share from
larger players by offering price competitive products. This can be achieved through acquisitions of
players such as Stuff Fibre.
Vocus has been preparing for an IPO of Vocus NZ to divest 100% of the business, planned to be
undertaken by 30 June 2021. The proceeds from the IPO are intended to deleverage Vocus and provide
sufficient capital to fuel investments and growth in VNS. Consistent with its obligations under the
Proposed Scheme, Vocus is no longer pursuing the IPO during the period under which the Proposed
Scheme is in effect
Seems clear that the IPO is off.
MIRA must want Voucs NZ, for what ever reason, otherwise why wouldn't they just let it be spun off?
Friday 25 June is binding date. So I assume June 28 is when they can make a play. If ComCom block then they might as well spin of Vocus NZ in an IPO ASAP.
I assume who ever has been buying on market is now close to 5%, given that this has been going on for weeks now.
Waiting for that last huge block purchase, maybe they will buy out Kiltearn or Blackcrane, thus pushing them from 4.9% to 10% without disclousing to market. If another bidder comes along they will be holding more than 10% and will either get paid out nicely or make life difficult.
You read it (the conspiracy) here first.
What's clear to me is that
A) Sky has started advertising Broadband on TV.
B) Orcon and Slingshot barely advertise anymore.
C) If you don't own a mobile network or power station, you need another product to bundle broadband with.
D) If you own your own TV station, you can spam your own TV ads all day (Prime TV).
E) if you buy a company that has no debt, you can do a LBO
F) You can flog anything off on the NZX these days.
If you think about it USD $150m is enough to buy Sky.
That's about NZD $200m.
The local banks will put up another $200m in a syndicate (ie 50% leverage).
That's a 23c bid.
(mistaTea will rage at that tho) but...
Kiltearn are selling today, Blackcrane will be in profit, ACC will probably take it and move on. There are a couple of other funds sitting on 12c average after the placement too.
Unless Discovery comes in and bids it up higher!
(the above is all speculation)
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 04:36 PM
You read it (the conspiracy) here first.
Don’t even think of jumping in on my Vocus angle at the last minute and claiming it as your own after all your bs over the last 18 months!
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 04:38 PM
If you think about it USD $150m is enough to buy Sky.
That's about NZD $200m.
The local banks will put up another $200m in a syndicate (ie 50% leverage).
That's a 23c bid.
(mistaTea will rage at that tho) but...
Kiltearn are selling today, Blackcrane will be in profit, ACC will probably take it and move on. There are a couple of other funds sitting on 12c average after the placement too.
Unless Discovery comes in and bids it up higher!
(the above is all speculation)
You keep forgetting the fundamentals of business.
You just keep yelling out numbers that are higher than what you paid and hope someone offers it even if it is divorced from the underlying earning power of the business.
You don’t care if you get ripped off so long as it still represents a gain.
That is not how these deals are able to be done.
And I have explained why.
You keep forgetting the fundamentals of business.
You just keep yelling out numbers that are higher than what you paid and hope someone offers it even if it is divorced from the underlying earning power of the business.
You don’t care if you get ripped off so long as it still represents a gain.
That is not how these deals are able to be done.
And I have explained why.
Things are changing quick here bro.
AT&T are now selling their media division. So this whole idea of telcos owning media companies is in question. That's why the Vodafone/Sky didn't happen and why Infratil passed on it.
I may be spewing out numbers, but so are you, in the hope it gets higher than 30c.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
What ever happens, a takeover or merger has to happen soon!
The price will be decided, if and only if, another bidder comes out. Ie it's like a $1 Trademe reserve. Just have list the thing and hope and pray there's a bidding war 1min before it closes.
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 04:48 PM
Things are changing quick here bro.
AT&T are now selling their media division. So this whole idea of telcos owning media companies is in question. That's why the Vodafone/Sky didn't happen and why Infratil passed on it.
I may be spewing out numbers, but so are you, in the hope it gets higher than 30c.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
What ever happens, a takeover or merger has to happen soon!
The price will be decided, if and only if, another bidder comes out. Ie it's like a $1 Trademe reserve. Just have list the thing and hope and pray there's a bidding war 1min before it closes.
More noise Ogg.
My thoughts on price being north of 35c is not based on some wishful thinking that just happens to be above my average buy in price.
It is based on various multiples of GAAP and non-GAAP earnings plus reasoning around how the business is likely to continue to perform in the future. I actually think any deal needs to value sky above 40c.
I like you mate and you are great entertainment, but please do not categorise our investment philosophy as being in anyway way similar!
The best thing that can happen now is that MIRA comes out and makes a bid of 23c. With the idea to merge it with Vocus NZ.
Then hopefully Discovery NZ and or NBC comes out and makes a bid, thus pushing up the price.
If MIRA gets 10%, it could make things interesting. They may hold out and the price could go higher, like when Fox and Comcast were bidding on Sky UK, as Fox had a huge position in Sky UK, ie the price just goes higher when there's a big holder holding out etc.
The opening bid doesn't matter.
It is based on various multiples of GAAP and non-GAAP earnings
Bro, no one cares about GAAP anymore, it's all about dat Tesla and bitcoin valuation
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Even Infratil have cotton on to this.
The reality is, MIRA have a decent shot of making some coin out of this by flipping it with Vocus NZ and Discovery could use the 1m customers. That it! No one is sitting down and working out the GAAP!
Alpha
19-05-2021, 05:03 PM
So it's back on or was never off..... ive been holding this dog Sh!t for so long now I am going Blind from the stink.
Do we have to wait until after the property is sold. If so I think I may just be out or is the reason the property is listed but late and limited write up to only fall us again and the sale is not going ahead.
Or is it if deal doesnt go ahead Sky sells.
Ogg or anyone else have you enquired about the listing? Any further terms? I dont have the skills to ask or money to even be considered seriously by the agents.
I dont have the skills to ask or money to even be considered seriously by the agents.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Forget the building. It's a piece of sh*t anyway.
Handley is the new play...
There's just no way this guy would buy that much stock a few weeks after being a director for 7 years and owning jack sh*t. Seriously, that was the most left field purchase I've seen and stinks of smelly fish! Something is up. Just wait and hold.
(dyor)
Baa_Baa
19-05-2021, 05:16 PM
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Forget the building. It's a piece of sh*t anyway.
Handley is the new play...
There's just no way this guy would buy that much stock a few weeks after being a director for 7 years and owning jack sh*t. Seriously, that was the most left field purchase I've seen and stinks of smelly fish! Something is up. Just wait and hold.
(dyor)
Finally something that makes sense, the Handley play. If only you knew who else was accumulating the asks, their stories might line up.
🤑
mistaTea
19-05-2021, 05:21 PM
Finally something that makes sense, the Handley play. If only you knew who else was accumulating the asks, their stories might line up.
🤑
I see it now.
They cheated Handley by booting him out. Now they are going to pay when he buys the company from them.
Kinda like when that guy tried to cheat Warren out of a fraction of a cent per share for Berkshire after they agreed on a price. Warren got mad and bought the rest of the business.
Yes it is all making sense now.
Leftfield
20-05-2021, 08:14 AM
.....There's just no way this guy would buy that much stock a few weeks after being a director for 7 years and owning jack sh*t. Seriously, that was the most left field purchase I've seen and stinks of smelly fish! Something is up. Just wait and hold.
(dyor)
LOL I deny any part of this! :cool:
clown
20-05-2021, 09:11 AM
Sky announces long-term partnership with ESPN
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372464
BigBob
20-05-2021, 09:13 AM
Sky announces long-term partnership with ESPN
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372464
That's pretty good news really, so a close below 17c on the cards today... 😉
mistaTea
20-05-2021, 09:15 AM
That's pretty good news really, so a close below 17c on the cards today... 😉
Mate with fantastic news like that we will be lucky if we end the week in the sixteens!!
Akane
20-05-2021, 09:19 AM
Sky announces long-term partnership with ESPN
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372464
Cool, SP to drop by another 5% then? :)
clown
20-05-2021, 09:44 AM
Good news = SP down by 5% is the new normal for this stock. Seems to be the same for KPG at the moment too.
Cool, SP to drop by another 5% then? :)
That's pretty good news really, so a close below 17c on the cards today...
Mate with fantastic news like that we will be lucky if we end the week in the sixteens!!
Cool, SP to drop by another 5% then? :)
Good news = SP down by 5% is the new normal for this stock. Seems to be the same for KPG at the moment too.
Welcome to La La Land
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Walt Disney doing a 360 here? Would have thought they were pulling the channels.
mistaTea
20-05-2021, 10:11 AM
Walt Disney doing a 360 here? Would have thought they were pulling the channels.
They are doing what they think makes the most sense for their business.
This is the issue we face...any developments in the industry and the worst-case-scenario is always predicted for Sky. Disney pull some kids channels and go OTT and everyone decides that ESPN will definitely go too...
Most of the dire predictions for Sky don't come true.
Pretty much everyone has resigned:
ViacomCBS
NBCUniversal/Comcast
Discovery/Warner/HBO
ESPN/Disney
Rugby rights until 2025.
International Cricket
So no one wants to take this dog over?
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
They'll all rather just resign and let us plebs take a cut of their margin?
mistaTea
20-05-2021, 10:43 AM
So no one wants to take this dog over?
Poor Ogg...he has bought shares in a company that he thinks is 'a dog' yet still expects someone else to come in and pay him handsomely to buy it.
Down 2%
Great call guys, absolute rubbish announcement.
https://i.imgur.com/pME0L7O.gif
Poor Ogg...he has bought shares in a company that he thinks is 'a dog' yet still expects someone else to come in and pay him handsomely to buy it.
I specialise in mutts for resale.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2021, 10:53 AM
good news, but somewhat of a surprise as I didn't realise Sky was in danger of losing ESPN.
ESPN cable revenue is a giant cash cow for Disney that they will milk for all its worth before finally cutting that cord and moving the content exclusively to its DTC ESPN+ offering.
LaserEyeKiwi
20-05-2021, 11:20 AM
Pretty much everyone has resigned:
ViacomCBS
NBCUniversal/Comcast
Discovery/Warner/HBO
ESPN/Disney
Rugby rights until 2025.
International Cricket
So no one wants to take this dog over?
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
They'll all rather just resign and let us plebs take a cut of their margin?
"Disney" hasn't re-signed with Sky, only their ESPN "linear channel" output. All other Disney content is on Disney+ (except for the few items that were licensed to Sky previously, like "The Handmaids Tale").
HBO/Warners is the big one that needs some sort of contract renewal - especially since the NZ launch of the Discovery+ DTC streaming service might now be the preferred delivery mechanism for Warners/HBO content once the current deals expire. It would be fantastic if Sky at the least were able to wrangle another "co-exclusive" (that description still cracks me up) arrangement for that content, like the previous recent discovery content deal.
Topagent
20-05-2021, 01:07 PM
Another 2 mill shares traded today at 1pm. How many of these have gone through the last few days?
Another 2 mill shares traded today at 1pm. How many of these have gone through the last few days?
Add to that another 2.5mln crossed in last half hour..
Baa_Baa
20-05-2021, 02:08 PM
Add to that another 2.5mln crossed in last half hour..
Quite the contrast from the extraordinary number of trades that are less than $10 (https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/) !!!
mistaTea
20-05-2021, 03:51 PM
I'm gonna cash out and get some dole money from Jacinda
Hey the dole is going up mate! This might not be a bad option now!
Hey the dole is going up mate! This might not be a bad option now!
Budget 2021
https://i.imgur.com/BhVEedn.gif
steveb
20-05-2021, 03:59 PM
Now the unemployed will be the next big spenders on sky subs,what better way to spend your time,when you are unfortunatly out of work.
Habits
20-05-2021, 08:01 PM
Watching tv on mute.... looking and wondering whats this really dumb cringey ad. Then suddenly pops up "Sky Broadband". Lolz. Maybe it wasn't so bad after all.
Watching tv on mute.... looking and wondering whats this really dumb cringey ad. Then suddenly pops up "Sky Broadband". Lolz. Maybe it wasn't so bad after all.
More new Custies for SKT .. or does the Dole currently already include a free SKY Sub option ? ;-)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/cricket-black-caps-tests-in-england-split-between-spark-sport-and-sky-tv/PVLTKC7DSR62E3XDK2ZYNS666Q/
Fans will need a subscription to both Spark Sport and Sky Sport to watch all three Black Caps tests in June.
Thanks ComCom
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Sharesies bot pushing up the price.
Handley must be topping up?
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
LaserEyeKiwi
21-05-2021, 11:05 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/cricket-black-caps-tests-in-england-split-between-spark-sport-and-sky-tv/PVLTKC7DSR62E3XDK2ZYNS666Q/
Fans will need a subscription to both Spark Sport and Sky Sport to watch all three Black Caps tests in June.
Thanks ComCom
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Horrible viewing times - doubt many will be willing to watch these given it will be playing from around 11pm - 6am.
Horrible viewing times - doubt many will be willing to watch these given it will be playing from around 11pm - 6am.
I've taken annual leave to watch the Test Championship final. Also taken advantage of the Spark offer to get Spark Sport + Sky Sports Now for $49.99/month
Cricket is my life
Horrible viewing times - doubt many will be willing to watch these given it will be playing from around 11pm - 6am.
I've taken annual leave to watch the Test Championship final. Also taken advantage of the Spark offer to get Spark Sport + Sky Sports Now for $49.99/month
Cricket is my life
I've taken annual leave to watch the Test Championship final. Also taken advantage of the Spark offer to get Spark Sport + Sky Sports Now for $49.99/month
Cricket is my life
Silu PMed me this photo of him...
https://i.imgur.com/MvQw8Aa.jpg
Silu PMed me this photo of him...
https://i.imgur.com/MvQw8Aa.jpg
I don't want to have anything to do with that person. There is a good reason why every Black Cap fan is keeping a big distance between themselves and Sonny Shaw.
More off market trades
https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg
More off market trades
https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg
Its bit early for Singapore time, isn't it :p
airedale
21-05-2021, 11:59 AM
Sharesies bot pushing up the price.
Handley must be topping up?
Steady on Ogg...up one tenth of a cent....hardly pushing the price up.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gifsteady on Ogg
Its bit early for Singapore time, isn't it :p
Must be the other bidding racing to catch up...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
clown
21-05-2021, 12:27 PM
Another 2mil traded off market... so that's around 10mil in total this week?
https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg
OK, seriously now. Someone needs to fill in their disclosure form. This is getting silly.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371327
Investor Day on 2nd June
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372604
Investor Day on 29th June
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
Alpha
21-05-2021, 03:31 PM
Do you mean .... d day
The Vocus takeover becomes binding on the 25th June, that's why they had to move the investor day...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
(warning: the above is just anther one of my wild conspiracy theories dyor )
mistaTea
21-05-2021, 03:48 PM
The Vocus takeover becomes binding on the 25th June, that's why they had to move the investor day...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
(warning: the above is just anther one of my wild conspiracy theories dyor )
Now you are beginning to see (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXNLdw9CUgE)...
Now you are beginning to see (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aXNLdw9CUgE)...
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/372604/346542.pdf
It does reads like a Vocus merger.
"future strategic direction",
"preferred partner for content"
They'll probably go on about how they can target all the Ocron/Slingshot customers.
It will be lame if MIRA just plans to form a new entity with Sky and not take Sky over. Maybe Sky's value will pop a few cents at most.
Wait and see I guess.
(the above is all my opinion)
mistaTea
22-05-2021, 09:16 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371327
Investor Day on 2nd June
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372604
Investor Day on 29th June
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
Some thoughts...
One possibility is that the date has indeed been moved so that the investor day is after the Vocus shareholders vote on the MIRA deal.
Another possibility is that this is the first official announcement of the investor day. June 2nd may have been pencilled in as part of the previous announcement, but now they have firmed up a date and it just happens to be a few days after the Vocus vote.
Some thoughts...
One possibility is that the date has indeed been moved so that the investor day is after the Vocus shareholders vote on the MIRA deal.
Another possibility is that this is the first official announcement of the investor day. June 2nd may have been pencilled in as part of the previous announcement, but now they have firmed up a date and it just happens to be a few days after the Vocus vote.
You don't "pencil in a date", then go announce that to the market as if it's 100% happening on that date. Otherwise they would have said something like "we plan" or "upcoming". Things are very formal on the NZX. You don't go telling the NZX about your draft dates only to have to issue another announcement every time it changes.
Think about this, just 3 and a half weeks ago they said the investor day was June 3. Now all of a sudden it's a month later with no reason given! There's still 10 days until June 2 so it's not as if they needed extra time to make a few more crappy PDF slides.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
What's also fishy is that the buildings were listed in-between these dates. Suggesting that someone was doing due due diligence during this time, and have now decided they don't want the buildings, hence that's why the buildings took so long to come up for sale, and hence why the investor day got pushed forward.
What's the point in having a big presentation on June 29th, then 7 weeks later having to do it all over again with the full year results.
What could they possibly say on the 29th of June that will be any different then what they've already been saying for years now? How to stop "churn" and grow "streaming numbers"? As if they've magically now come up with the answer to that all of a sudden.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
Bro, if there isn't something BIG on the 29th June, like a merger or takeover, I'm out of here for good! Seriously, I'm 100% leaving this thread. The 29th of June is the absolute D DAY here. No second chances. It's all in on the 29th for me!
mistaTea
22-05-2021, 10:26 AM
You don't "pencil in a date", then go announce that to the market as if it's 100% happening on that date. Otherwise they would have said something like "we plan" or "upcoming". Things are very formal on the NZX. You don't go telling the NZX about your draft dates only to have to issue another announcement every time it changes.
Think about this, just 3 and a half weeks ago they said the investor day was June 3. Now all of a sudden it's a month later with no reason given! There's still 10 days until June 2 so it's not as if they needed extra time to make a few more crappy PDF slides.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
What's also fishy is that the buildings were listed in-between these dates. Suggesting that someone was doing due due diligence during this time, and have now decided they don't want the buildings, hence that's why the buildings took so long to come up for sale, and hence why the investor day got pushed forward.
What's the point in having a big presentation on June 29th, then 7 weeks later having to do it all over again with the full year results.
What could they possibly say on the 29th of June that will be any different then what they've already been saying for years now? How to stop "churn" and grow "streaming numbers"? As if they've magically now come up with the answer to that all of a sudden.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
Bro, if there isn't something BIG on the 29th June, like a merger or takeover, I'm out of here for good! Seriously, I'm 100% leaving this thread. The 29th of June is the absolute D DAY here. No second chances. It's all in on the 29th for me!
Fair points!
mistaTea
22-05-2021, 12:24 PM
https://broadband.sky.co.nz/
I see they are offering Unlimited 100Mbs plans for $69/month if you are a Sky Box customer.
So getting broadband + Sky Strarter for $94/month. Cheaper than if you get the same bundle with Vodafone TV (they charge $113.98/month (https://www.vodafone.co.nz/tv/vodafone-tv-broadband-package/) and you cannot record all channels). So Sky is about $20/month cheaper and offer an arguably better product. Vodafone customers won't be flooding the call centre with switch requests for $20/month, but it is good to see how competitive the offer is.
Spark's 'Unplan Netflix Fibre 100' goes for $99/month (https://www.spark.co.nz/shop/internet/plans-and-pricing) (I don't know of anyone who uses less than 120GB, so for all intents and purposes we can use the top figure of the price range they quote). The Spark deal is pretty good - so it will be interesting to see how many Spark customers who also have a Sky Box switch over. $5/month is no difference at all really, but it is good that the Sky bundle is still competitively priced.
Things will really take shape once they start offering the streaming bundles. Unlimited 100Mbs with a NEON sub for $85/month would be good. Sky are now offering broadband standalone (at a much higher price than if you have a Sky Box) so it won't be long before the next step is taken in streaming.
Also bundles with Sky Sport NOW... and then a Broadband/NEON&SSN Super Saver bundle.
This is why Vocus and Sky need to merge imo. The current low SP makes any negotiations incredibly tricky...but if all parties understand the synergies and long-term potential for gain...I think a deal is possible.
But let's wait and see. Worst case scenario, no deal can be done because relative values cannot be agreed in which case we stick with the wholesale partnership. Not my preferred option, but we will still do fine.
Fair points!
Interesting article:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2105/S00059/challenges-as-2degrees-hits-revenue-high-preps-ipo.htm
2degrees/VocusNZ/Sky merger would be the Holy Grail of the minnows teaming up to take on the Spark and Vodafone.
But will the poor schmuck retail holder see any benefit from a deal like this?
Only one way to find out...
https://i.imgur.com/Ug3JM98.gif
LaserEyeKiwi
22-05-2021, 01:17 PM
Interesting article:
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL2105/S00059/challenges-as-2degrees-hits-revenue-high-preps-ipo.htm
2degrees/VocusNZ/Sky merger would be the Holy Grail of the minnows teaming up to take on the Spark and Vodafone.
But will the poor schmuck retail holder see any benefit from a deal like this?
Only one way to find out...
https://i.imgur.com/Ug3JM98.gif
Good article! The author -Bill Bennett -
would be welcome on this thread (if he isn't already).
mistaTea
22-05-2021, 05:06 PM
2degrees/VocusNZ/Sky merger would be the Holy Grail of the minnows teaming up to take on the Spark and Vodafone.
It would be crazy if all of the parties were not trying to thrash out a deal. This would really shake things up in NZ and consumers would finally have three big telcos competing.
Sky’s content relationships and partnerships, the world class Vocus broadband network and 2Degrees mobile network…
Monarch
22-05-2021, 08:35 PM
Quote Originally Posted by Ogg View Post
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371327
Investor Day on 2nd June
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/372604
Investor Day on 29th June
I've never been a strong believer in the takeover theory (Vocus Pocus if you will), but this is extremely suspect. What reason other than a lazy presentation creator can explain them pushing this back so much. What changed over a 3 week period that made them feel the need to change dates, but not explicitly point out they did so? They announced it the 2nd time as if It was on the 29th this whole time?
I've never been a strong believer in the takeover theory (Vocus Pocus if you will), but this is extremely suspect.
Even the non believes are starting to turn...
https://i.imgur.com/3piq09P.jpg
Better get the speech ready for the 28th...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
mistaTea
22-05-2021, 09:51 PM
Even the non believes are starting to turn...
https://i.imgur.com/3piq09P.jpg
Better get the speech ready for the 28th...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
What speech??
I AM THE ONE WHO HAS PRESENTED THE VOCUS ANGLE!
You were in denial for weeks because you believed that discovery were the latest US company that was going to buy sky.
No speeches for you Ogg! You suck at takeover theories mate!
What speech??
I AM THE ONE WHO HAS PRESENTED THE VOCUS ANGLE!
You were in denial for weeks because you believed that discovery were the latest US company that was going to buy sky.
No speeches for you Ogg! You suck at takeover theories mate!
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Bro, Discovery/Warner will be throwing in a bid soon after. The Vocus merger is just a ruse.
Vocus/Sky will never happen. You're dreaming mate.
Don't you think it's weird, that:
A) They've having a conference call for an investor presentation, when this is normally only for full year and half year results.
B) That is starts at 9am and not 10am, which is normally the start date for these things.
https://i.imgur.com/qdH0QgT.jpg
I mean, who the hell is gonna wake up at 7am in Sydney or 3am in Singapore and phone in?
https://i.imgur.com/zhPrbAn.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
This is what I think happens.
Trading halt Friday (the day that the Vocus takeover is binding). Weekend all the paperwork gets done etc. Monday morning a big announcement of merger or takeover ( trading halt still in effect). Tuesday morning big investor day presentation at 9am. 10am trading halt lifted. (ie standard 2 business day trading halt)
Thoughts?
mistaTea
23-05-2021, 12:05 PM
Don't you think it's weird, that:
A) They've having a conference call for an investor presentation, when this is normally only for full year and half year results.
B) That is starts at 9am and not 10am, which is normally the start date for these things.
https://i.imgur.com/qdH0QgT.jpg
I mean, who the hell is gonna wake up at 7am in Sydney or 3am in Singapore and phone in?
https://i.imgur.com/zhPrbAn.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
This is what I think happens.
Trading halt Friday (the day that the Vocus takeover is binding). Weekend all the paperwork gets done etc. Monday morning a big announcement of merger or takeover ( trading halt still in effect). Tuesday morning big investor day presentation at 9am. 10am trading halt lifted. (ie standard 2 business day trading halt)
Thoughts?
I think you need to take a Zanax.
I think you need to take a Zanax.
Bro, I'm in overdrive here and buzzing hard.
My Spidey sensors are going through the roof!
https://i.imgur.com/80uSbZD.jpg
How's that so call "interim CFO" going now. It's been 6 months.
What's his name again?
https://nz.linkedin.com/in/andrew-hirst-82b55012
https://i.imgur.com/sAreCQG.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/XjQd2Nu.jpg
"specialising in mergers and acquisitions"
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Andrew Hirst was appointed 2 weeks after Handley left.
Go figure
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
mistaTea
23-05-2021, 12:20 PM
I’m just pleased to see your thinking is finally beginning to catch up to mine.
It took you a while!!
I’m just pleased to see your thinking is finally beginning to catch up to mine.
It took you a while!!
Bro, you're at 28c average and Handley is at 17c.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
What you gonna do, buy more stock on Monday to average donw?
mistaTea
23-05-2021, 12:33 PM
Bro, you're at 28c average and Handley is at 17c.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
What you gonna do, buy more stock on Monday to average donw?
I've been buying for years, why stop now!!!
Alright, listen up muppets. No one better go out and buy up large tomorrow! Only an idiot like Handley would do that. Gotta keep this on the down low. We don't want to queer the deal by pushing it up too much before Vocus is sold off. Best thing to do is let Kiltearn keep selling it down. These jokers have no idea what's going on - they're in a bubble half way around the world! Just let Mr Singapore keep accumulating, he's up to something and likely part of this whole master plan. He'll absorb any surplus stock, so just let him be. There's a heap of bot activity out there trading $1 parcels flushing out more big block trades and trying to manipulate the Shareseis algorithm - ignore all that noise. Remember, this stock used to be worth $2 billion+, it's on sale now for a fraction of that, the balance sheet is clean, assets are being sold off, costs are down. The doomsday Netflix scenario never materialised, people still watch TV, pay TV isn't expensive, and Rugby is still NZ national game. Sky is the "Preferred Partner" for all the big media creators. It's here to stay for many years to come. Put your trust in Sophie, and let this thing play out. And lastly, remember peps, investing is risky, mergers go back, and takeovers fail. Read the FMA guide here:
https://www.fma.govt.nz/assets/Guidance/HitsandMyths-MaryHolm-Guidebook.pdf
"The fewer men the greater share of honor."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JRPdFFTjaFI
airedale
24-05-2021, 09:21 AM
Rousing or rabble rousing eh! Never mind, Ken Branagh at breakfast is a good start to the day. "We few, we very few, we band of brothers". Shakespeare or Ogg, or St Crispin, lets see how it plays out😃
"We few, we very few, we band of brothers".
https://i.imgur.com/wKithTb.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/IqPYDv2.gif
https://i.imgur.com/Kv466Ei.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gwA9h9A.gif
https://i.imgur.com/qM4LbOx.png
https://i.imgur.com/U08AJsk.jpg
DownTownJr
24-05-2021, 04:08 PM
So I should really be topping up some more given all my Spidey senses are tingling and tingling they are.
airedale
24-05-2021, 04:09 PM
6 million plus, today. Someone is quietly accumulating.
So I should really be topping up some more given all my Spidey senses are tingling and tingling they are.
https://i.imgur.com/Jre65CX.jpg
(do it)
Alpha
24-05-2021, 05:21 PM
How funny would it be if really it was just us all topping up based on this thread
Habits
24-05-2021, 05:24 PM
How funny would it be if really it was just us all topping up based on this thread
Not me. I had to actually flick a few of my heavily guarded SKT
mistaTea
24-05-2021, 05:28 PM
How funny would it be if really it was just us all topping up based on this thread
I’m almost certain Ogg is behind all of the off market trades…
He is getting ready to launch his takeover bid once he hits 5% and has to make a market declaration…
uravgtrader
24-05-2021, 05:37 PM
Why is there a few $1-$2 $5 trades? What is the purpose of them?
https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/
mistaTea
24-05-2021, 05:40 PM
Why is there a few $1-$2 $5 trades? What is the purpose of them?
https://stocknessmonster.com/trades/skt.nzx/
Just Ogg using his sophisticated network of offshore finance vehicles to manipulate the price down while he is accumulating and readying his takeover bid…
mistaTea
24-05-2021, 05:40 PM
That last one was just a joke people.
Before Ogg PM’s me screaming that I need to take it down in case anyone thinks I am being serious.
How funny would it be if really it was just us all topping up based on this thread
https://i.imgur.com/mF2xZmL.gif
OK guys here's how I think things played out. Note this is all speculation and my opinion and very likely wrong, but interesting non the less. Here goes:
Mid 2020:
FeeniX Communications is selected as Sky's broadband partner.
Sometime around August-September 2020:
Vocus NZ approaches Sky and offers to be their broadband partner instead of FeeniX Communications.
Vocus enters talks with Sky about a deeper relationship etc.
Sky broadband gets delayed because of the new partnership talks.
October 2020:
Vocus management, realising the new synergies and opportunities, begin to think about spinning off Vocus NZ.
The plan is to either profit from the strong IPO market and sell out completely or keep a percentage under a new listed company that eventually merges with Sky.
The idea is to merge all the brands Orcon/Slingshot/Flip and the newly acquired Stuff Fibre into Sky Broadband and create a new retail power house in NZ that will pay dividends so that it can be sold off to Kiwi Saver investors and hedge funds etc.
Early November 2020:
Sky and Vocus NZ reach an arrangement in principal but deal won't be announced until next month.
19th November 2020:
Vocus announce that Vocus NZ will be spun off in an IPO.
Quote: "The Board considers that there are now significant opportunities for organic growth and market consolidation across all market segments that will be better realised if Vocus New Zealand is an independent entity"
Late November 2020:
Early roadshow and investor feedback about the NZ listing. MIRA and Aware take hold and begin to seriously thing about making a takeover. They approach Vocus Australia for early talks.
1st December 2020:
Sky CEO, Martin Stewart, realising a merger and or takeover will happen soon and that he will likely be out of the job anyway, decides to up and leave ASAP. Gets his stock options and boards a plane to the UK.
Late December 2020:
Sophie takes over. Overhauls the company. Cleans out the bullying work culture (see glassdoor reviews).
Hires interim CFO to work on merger with Vocus and to evaluate assets (buildings get flagged for sale etc) and come up with ideas to reduce cost. Focus is now more on customers.
Early Jan 2021:
Derek Handley, realising that he's probably gonna get fired, and that some type of merger or takeover is happening, decides to leave on his own terms. Couple of weeks later starts buying up the stock big time.
Feb 2021:
MIRA and Aware being formal due diligence. Vocus NZ IPO is now in jeopardy and put on hold.
March 2021:
MIRA and Aware decide they want everything as they can get cheap access to funds from the USA.
Vocus shareholders get a nice cash offer and are happy. Vocus management get huge bonuses.
The Vocus NZ IPO is canceled.
April 2021:
MIRA and Aware begin talking with Sky and start sniffing around. Likely "protocol B" in action.
Sky puts the sale of the buildings on hold.
28th April 2021:
Handley buys more stock
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware say they're keen on Sky but need to complete the Vocus Australia takeover first.
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware don't want the buildings. Buildings get listed on Trademe
Investor day is moved to after Vocus binding date.
Now:
Ogg writes more conspiracy theories.
June 29th 2021:
Victory Day.
https://i.imgur.com/O9QGuMe.jpg
JSwan
25-05-2021, 12:19 AM
OK guys here's how I think things played out. Note this is all speculation and my opinion and very likely wrong, but interesting non the less. Here goes:
Mid 2020:
FeeniX Communications is selected as Sky's broadband partner.
Sometime around August-September 2020:
Vocus NZ approaches Sky and offers to be their broadband partner instead of FeeniX Communications.
Vocus enters talks with Sky about a deeper relationship etc.
Sky broadband gets delayed because of the new partnership talks.
October 2020:
Vocus management, realising the new synergies and opportunities, begin to think about spinning off Vocus NZ.
The plan is to either profit from the strong IPO market and sell out completely or keep a percentage under a new listed company that eventually merges with Sky.
The idea is to merge all the brands Orcon/Slingshot/Flip and the newly acquired Stuff Fibre into Sky Broadband and create a new retail power house in NZ that will pay dividends so that it can be sold off to Kiwi Saver investors and hedge funds etc.
Early November 2020:
Sky and Vocus NZ reach an arrangement in principal but deal won't be announced until next month.
19th November 2020:
Vocus announce that Vocus NZ will be spun off in an IPO.
Quote: "The Board considers that there are now significant opportunities for organic growth and market consolidation across all market segments that will be better realised if Vocus New Zealand is an independent entity"
Late November 2020:
Early roadshow and investor feedback about the NZ listing. MIRA and Aware take hold and begin to seriously thing about making a takeover. They approach Vocus Australia for early talks.
1st December 2020:
Sky CEO, Martin Stewart, realising a merger and or takeover will happen soon and that he will likely be out of the job anyway, decides to up and leave ASAP. Gets his stock options and boards a plane to the UK.
Late December 2020:
Sophie takes over. Overhauls the company. Cleans out the bullying work culture (see glassdoor reviews).
Hires interim CFO to work on merger with Vocus and to evaluate assets (buildings get flagged for sale etc) and come up with ideas to reduce cost. Focus is now more on customers.
Early Jan 2021:
Derek Handley, realising that he's probably gonna get fired, and that some type of merger or takeover is happening, decides to leave on his own terms. Couple of weeks later starts buying up the stock big time.
Feb 2021:
MIRA and Aware being formal due diligence. Vocus NZ IPO is now in jeopardy and put on hold.
March 2021:
MIRA and Aware decide they want everything as they can get cheap access to funds from the USA.
Vocus shareholders get a nice cash offer and are happy. Vocus management get huge bonuses.
The Vocus NZ IPO is canceled.
April 2021:
MIRA and Aware begin talking with Sky and start sniffing around. Likely "protocol B" in action.
Sky puts the sale of the buildings on hold.
28th April 2021:
Handley buys more stock
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware say they're keen on Sky but need to complete the Vocus Australia takeover first.
Early May 2021:
MIRA and Aware don't want the buildings. Buildings get listed on Trademe
Investor day is moved to after Vocus binding date.
Now:
Ogg writes more conspiracy theories.
June 29th 2021:
Victory Day.
https://i.imgur.com/O9QGuMe.jpg
Your speculation posts are new thread worthy 😂
uravgtrader
25-05-2021, 01:28 AM
Just bought more SKT as OGG told me to.
LEMON
25-05-2021, 06:57 AM
I have friends who bought BIT because Elon Musk told them too, ouch.
I have friends who bought GME at the highs because friends told them too, ouch.
I should have bought Doge at 0.08 but I didn't because I couldn't figure out the Kracken website, ouch.
Just bought more SKT as OGG told me to.
https://i.imgur.com/Z2uXdqj.gif
The six month technical breakdown:
https://i.imgur.com/k6DyWwA.jpg
Alpha
25-05-2021, 10:42 AM
https://media.giphy.com/media/xT9Igr3RDoeYTfpFW8/giphy.gif
The wall will fall.
https://media.giphy.com/media/xT9Igr3RDoeYTfpFW8/giphy.gif
The wall will fall.
Don't forget to add the link:
https://www.neontv.co.nz/series/game-of-thrones
airedale
25-05-2021, 11:02 AM
The six month technical breakdown:
https://i.imgur.com/k6DyWwA.jpg
At this stage and for the last 4 months the SP has been trading between 17 and 18 cents. Trades above 18 cents could be "encouraging".
Don't forget to add the link:
https://www.neontv.co.nz/series/game-of-thrones
I know I'm ten years late but am watching this show at present via a paid Neon subscription after my 3 month free trial...
I like that it has captions too... not all the providers do.
I agree that the Moving Average convergence is a concern and more so if it goes the wrong way however sometimes it can be a slingshot too.
We are still consolidating following the profit upgrade. A large triangle formation has formed around that. Which way will it break?
At this stage and for the last 4 months the SP has been trading between 17 and 18 cents. Trades above 18 cents could be "encouraging".
0.17 is Theoretical Ex-Rights Price of the placement last year.
That's pretty much the rolling average and baseline of the stock.
The only thing that will make it move is the resumption of dividends, a buy back program, a merger, or a takeover.
June 29th is when this will likely be announced.
I'm hoping for all four!
- An effective takeover by Vocus at a higher valuation multiple than today's market price
- Sky being merged into a new company with Vocus.
- A buy back program announced from a small a portion of the free cashflow
- A modest dividend declared.
But in any case I'll probably cash up and leave it to Kiwi Saver providers to ride it out long term.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
If MIRA and Aware had any God dam balls, they would pick up Sky after June 25th when Vocus goes unconditional. Then look to wrap up Sky by the end of the year with an all out cash offer. Then pivot towards 2Degrees before their IPO gets the green light later this year.
If they're smart they can get the trifecta
-Vocus NZ
-Sky
-2Degrees.
This can all be funded through junk bonds at modest 3% interest rate in USD.
Refloating this newly created telco on the NZX could reach $3-$5 Billion.
They need to buy my holdings first though....
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Trustpower would be the quadrella
That's when Spark and Vodafone will start complaining.
LaserEyeKiwi
25-05-2021, 11:42 AM
0.17 is Theoretical Ex-Rights Price of the placement last year.
That's pretty much the rolling average and baseline of the stock.
The only thing that will make it move is the resumption of dividends, a buy back program, a merger, or a takeover.
June 29th is when this will likely be announced.
I'm hoping for all four!
- An effective takeover by Vocus at a higher valuation multiple than today's market price
- Sky being merged into a new company with Vocus.
- A buy back program announced from a small a portion of the free cashflow
- A modest dividend declared.
But in any case I'll probably cash up and leave it to Kiwi Saver providers to ride it out long term.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Personally if I was Sophie I would be looking to implement a debt funded management buyout if she truly thinks the long term cash flow generation will remain anywhere near current levels.
Personally if I was Sophie I would be looking to implement a debt funded management buyout if she truly thinks the long term cash flow generation will remain anywhere near current levels.
This isn't stuff.co.nz
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
This is all I see on TV now.
This is getting spammed 24/7 on all the Sky TV owned channels.
I've probably seen it 50 times by now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=116s_kgQoC8
I've maybe seen 1 Slingshot ad in that time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rdxet3ZIws
Who would move their email to Sky Broadband?
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Rdxet3ZIws
Alpha
25-05-2021, 03:33 PM
I guess Mr Singapore has enough now or is on to us.
mistaTea
25-05-2021, 03:38 PM
I guess Mr Singapore has enough now or is on to us.
Very low volumes traded today.
Interesting info up about the buildings
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale
“The location also offers exciting potential to explore alternative uses. Astute developers will consider the property’s possibilities for future mixed-use activities. Subject to rezoning, these could include residential projects or other alternatives such as retirement or education facilities.
Sky TV, who own the buildings, highlight the decision to sell will enable the company to act upon a rationalisation strategy that provides a better fit-for-purpose for their business and unlocks capital that can be redeployed into the business to create the most value for their customers and shareholders.
Offers closing at 4pm on Tuesday 8 June, unless sold prior.
I guess Mr Singapore has enough now or is on to us.
Vesak holiday. Probably left the office early.
Habits
25-05-2021, 04:57 PM
Interesting info up about the buildings
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale
“The location also offers exciting potential to explore alternative uses. Astute developers will consider the property’s possibilities for future mixed-use activities. Subject to rezoning, these could include residential projects or other alternatives such as retirement or education facilities.
Sky TV, who own the buildings, highlight the decision to sell will enable the company to act upon a rationalisation strategy that provides a better fit-for-purpose for their business and unlocks capital that can be redeployed into the business to create the most value for their customers and shareholders.
Offers closing at 4pm on Tuesday 8 June, unless sold prior.
If that is an recent update it must be the agent is not busy enough and has spare time to tinker
17.2
https://i.imgur.com/YmfbeRF.jpg
17.2
https://i.imgur.com/YmfbeRF.jpg
Topped up few more at close...
Topped up few more at close...
https://i.imgur.com/Z2uXdqj.gif
https://i.imgur.com/wAXMnDN.jpg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HuYeQi4wB_k
biker
25-05-2021, 05:56 PM
19 trades right at the close at .172 400,000 shares. Average about $3600 per trade. Market manipulation?
Previous trade was at .176.
Disc. Bought more today at .175
Certainly some interesting transactions and volume over the last week or two.
justin5
25-05-2021, 06:21 PM
I saw
400,594 shares offered at 16.6 @ around 4.50pm ... then that same offer changed to 16.7 a few minutes later.
THEN ..... they were sold just before 5pm! Consequently, the share price went from 17.6 to 17.2 in that short amount of time.
Why would anyone sell almost a cent below market value? And, just before closing? And, what would they be trying to achieve? Hmmmmm .......
justin5
25-05-2021, 06:53 PM
19 trades right at the close at .172 400,000 shares. Average about $3600 per trade. Market manipulation?
Previous trade was at .176.
Disc. Bought more today at .175
Certainly some interesting transactions and volume over the last week or two.
I saw
400,594 shares offered at 16.6 @ around 4.50pm ... then that same offer changed to 16.7 a few minutes later.
THEN ..... they were sold just before 5pm! Consequently, the share price went from 17.6 to 17.2 in that short amount of time.
Why would anyone sell almost a cent below market value? And, just before closing? And, what would they be trying to achieve? Hmmmmm .......
19 trades right at the close at .172 400,000 shares. Average about $3600 per trade. Market manipulation?
Previous trade was at .176.
Disc. Bought more today at .175
Certainly some interesting transactions and volume over the last week or two.
Of course it's manipulation!
I watch the stock all day, there's no fooling me.
That 400k parcel was sitting at 17.6 all day.
There was ample opportunity to sell at 17.5. Even 17.6 was getting nibbled at often. There was massive volume at 17.5 yesterday so there was no need to dump way below VWAP on such little volume traded.
If that was a genuine sell order they would have come down, or at least broken the order up into $10k lots and then slowly filled 17.5.
You don't wait all day trying to make a few extra bucks by holding out that long, not to mention sitting in line behind a wall of other sellers. Then 15mins before close have a massive panic attack and decide to dump it all @ 17.2 during the pre-close session for everyone to see. Seriously, who would do that type of sh*t
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
It's a god dam bot - plain and simple, designed to push down the closed priced so that muppets read the paper the next day or come home from their 9-5 and see that the stock has barely moved.
The money manger at Kiltearn is probably waking up in London now with his cup of tea. He'll see that it closed at 17.2 and will be on the phone to sell another large block trade tomorrow to Mr Singapore at 17.3
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
uravgtrader
25-05-2021, 09:20 PM
How are you seeing it's someone from Singapore buying/selling the shares?
justin5
25-05-2021, 09:25 PM
I'd like to know that too ... and see the post I made about late trading over 3 hours ago
Alpha
25-05-2021, 09:51 PM
Go back a few pages.
justin5
25-05-2021, 09:54 PM
Possibly asking a few days before approval of question being approved by Moderators?
How are you seeing it's someone from Singapore buying/selling the shares?
It's a running gag here and another conspiracy theory.
It's cause of the time of the trades. They happen late afternoon.
It might just be normal trading activity by Mitsubishi UFJ in Japan or UBS AG Singapore Branch. These two have been trading in derivatives and have been messing with the stock ever since the placement.
But it's unusual that there hasn't been more substantial holder notices or 1% moves, suggesting that these block trades aren't sell downs but rather someone accumulating from scratch.
It could be Kiltearn selling out of their entire holding. As of May 10th they are no longer substantial holders so they don't have to disclose. They have 83m to offload. Maybe they are the ones selling large parcels to random buyers.
The point is that the volume and who is buying is more interesting now than before. Go back through the years and have a look at all the SPH notices. There's hardly any now that it's spooky. There's a mysterious buyer out there accumulating, or so the story goes.
The current substantial holders are either sitting on massive losers and are refusing to sell at these low levels, or have way too much stock because of the death placement last year. The stock doesn't pay a dividend so most funds are avoiding it, it's basically uninvestable, which is weird for an NZX50 stock. The massive down trend is a huge red flag too. The stock is basically too risky for most funds but the current funds are stuck and not wanting to sell. It's state mate basically. ie no churn, just old holders from way back. The only new people are gamblers and retail holders looking to pick the bottom. It's actually kind of toxic. Hence all the surplus stock that keeps the share price down. Like I said before, unless "something happens", like dividends or a merger, it's stuck here in no mans land.
What I'm really saying is that if the investor day on June 29th is another sh*tty slide show with the same dribble that we've heard many times before, then thats it for me, I'm done.
https://i.imgur.com/ktL7VzO.gif
If that's the case then Kiltearn are smart selling out now and who ever is buying these large block trades is an idiot.
I don't know how I can stress this enough. It's seriously more than just D Day for this stock on the 29th. It's basically the new CEOs vision and everything will hinge on this presentation. If the first slide isn't a farking merger or takeover I'm hitting the sell button. In fact, I'll probably have my order filled out just to be sure so that I can hit the market ASAP after the PDF opens.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Alpha
25-05-2021, 10:20 PM
ogg you just want my shares. Where is your FMA warning.
ogg you just want my shares. Where is your FMA warning.
I'll be buying more if it goes sub 17.
Alpha
25-05-2021, 10:27 PM
likewise bring it on
uravgtrader
25-05-2021, 11:14 PM
I'm just waiting for the next Handley disclosure!
I'm just waiting for the next Handley disclosure!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/107929146/sky-tv-facing-turbulent-times-chairman-says
"Mr Handley's CV is all about the self-promotion of himself. I can't really see that he's very valuable on our Sky board."
"He's started all this stuff but nothing has really gelled financially."
Handley remuneration:
2020 $117,000
2019 $117,000
2018 $146,250
2017 $112,096
2016 $95,986
2015 $80,000
2014 $60,103
Total $728,435
Share price down 95% since taking office
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
uravgtrader
25-05-2021, 11:48 PM
"In 2013, Snakk raised $6.5m from 1200 investors who would now be down about 98 per cent on their investments."
https://m.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ
Think about this:
-Handley makes ~$500k in wages after tax from Sky
-Buys just $10k worth of stock over 7 year period
-Leaves Sky out of the blue
-1 week later Andrew Hirst appointed CFO and Vocus gets bought out by MIRA
-All of a sudden buys $200k worth of stock
-Fails to disclose on time
Yeah, not suspicious at all.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
uravgtrader
26-05-2021, 01:20 AM
Like someone else said here earlier, this Handley disclosure is the most suspicious thing to happen to this stock in a long time!
Habits
26-05-2021, 05:16 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/107929146/sky-tv-facing-turbulent-times-chairman-says
"Mr Handley's CV is all about the self-promotion of himself. I can't really see that he's very valuable on our Sky board."
"He's started all this stuff but nothing has really gelled financially."
Handley remuneration:
2020 $117,000
2019 $117,000
2018 $146,250
2017 $112,096
2016 $95,986
2015 $80,000
2014 $60,103
Total $728,435
Share price down 95% since taking office
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Re Handley
"The Hong-Kong born, Kiwi-educated entrepreneur was best known in business circles for co-founding mobile marketing consultancy The Hyperfactory in 2001, and then selling it to a United States buyer in 2010 for more than $10 million."
Had the money but why catch a falling knife.... suddenly everything has changed and it is game on
Alpha
26-05-2021, 11:43 AM
Dammit so we hate the guy but now we love him.....
this truely is the making of a movie.
Dammit so we hate the guy but now we love him.....
this truely is the making of a movie.
Waiting for Handley's next move
https://i.imgur.com/pZNiv3D.jpg
I've just going been over the two announcements again.
Announcement 28th April: "the Sky strategy and execution plans"
Announcement 21st May: "Sky’s future strategic direction"
Clear distinction in language used between the two.
The first is more singular first person. As in "their" strategy.
Second is more of a pivot towards a new direction, as if something is changing. The use of the word "future" implies something substantive is happening that is different than the past.
"Strategic vs Strategy" is also interesting. One implies a set path, the other some type of unknown road or path.
https://i.imgur.com/qpUqOdf.jpg
Mr Singapore is back!
https://i.imgur.com/GrdtXEG.gif
iamaskier
26-05-2021, 12:23 PM
I've just going been over the two announcements again.
Announcement 28th April: "the Sky strategy and execution plans"
Announcement 21st May: "Sky’s future strategic direction"
Clear distinction in language used between the two.
The first is more singular first person. As in "their" strategy.
Second is more of a pivot towards a new direction, as if something is changing. The use of the word "future" implies something substantive is happening that is different than the past.
"Strategic vs Strategy" is also interesting. One implies a set path, the other some type of unknown road or path.
https://i.imgur.com/qpUqOdf.jpg
Not sure about this, where's the concealed "energy" mentions???
Soon...
https://i.imgur.com/tM0aOZU.gif
The money manger at Kiltearn is probably waking up in London now with his cup of tea. He'll see that it closed at 17.2 and will be on the phone to sell another large block trade tomorrow to Mr Singapore at 17.3
That block trade today went through at 17.3 as I predicted last night.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Clearly the dump down to 17.2 was planned.
Baa_Baa
26-05-2021, 01:42 PM
https://i.imgur.com/qpUqOdf.jpg
The Seashore Cabaret is a great place for meal with a view. This character greets you as you get to the top of the entrance stairs. So now we know where Ogg HQ is, the home of conspiracy central.
:D You can literally have fries and a coke with that.
LaserEyeKiwi
26-05-2021, 01:57 PM
The Seashore Cabaret is a great place for meal with a view. This character greets you as you get to the top of the entrance stairs. So now we know where Ogg HQ is, the home of conspiracy central.
:D You can literally have fries and a coke with that.
This was from the 1980s movie “Big” with Tom Hanks - I have no idea if Zoltar existed before then or became a machine brand after the movie was released.
Do it’s magical powers include granting corporate takeover offers?
Bit more traction today, another lot of 2mln trade gone through at 17.5c a piece.
Bit more traction today, another lot of 2mln trade gone through at 17.5c a piece.
It has to be Kiltearn selling out completely.
https://i.imgur.com/9nGPgIB.gif
I'm gonna email them and see if they'll sell to me. Will post a link to the thread too...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
mistaTea clear your inbox, it's full again!
Bit more traction today, another lot of 2mln trade gone through at 17.5c a piece.
They don't buy any more than 6m a day.
Look for the dump at close.
Rinse repeat.
mistaTea
26-05-2021, 02:30 PM
mistaTea clear your inbox, it's full again!
Inbox cleared.
LaserEyeKiwi
26-05-2021, 02:39 PM
They don't buy any more than 6m a day.
Look for the dump at close.
Rinse repeat.
hypothetically speaking - when is a compulsory disclosure required? What size stake and how long after acquisition? 5% and next day?
hypothetically speaking - when is a compulsory disclosure required? What size stake and how long after acquisition? 5% and next day?
Ask Handley...
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
https://i.imgur.com/daj5nX3.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/9EfzNKl.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/02H1Xh6.jpg
https://www2.deloitte.com/nz/en/profiles/ahirst.html
https://i.imgur.com/r7Ns2UF.jpg
mistaTea
26-05-2021, 03:21 PM
https://www2.deloitte.com/nz/en/profiles/ahirst.html
https://i.imgur.com/r7Ns2UF.jpg
Yes that is all old news now.
He has been 'interim' for about 6 months now!
Yes that is all old news now.
He has been 'interim' for about 6 months now!
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/359261/330114.pdf
-Woodbury leaves same time as Vocus become Sky's Broadband partner.
-CEO then takes over CFO role in the interim
-CEO then leaves
-Another interim CFO appointed
-Another Director leaves (Handley)
Handley, Martin, Woodbury acquire 1m shares each after they leave.
????
Yeah, nothing to see here.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Mmm, looks like a 17.1 close coming up here guys
uravgtrader
26-05-2021, 06:40 PM
Mmm, looks like a 17.1 close coming up here guys
If you can't even get the closing price right, how we meant to trust you with SKT's merger or takeover?!
If you can't even get the closing price right, how we meant to trust you with SKT's merger or takeover?!
If in doubt, it's best just to watch the vids & take in the pics posted .. sooner or probably later, sumthing might just happen .. ;)
If you can't even get the closing price right, how we meant to trust you with SKT's merger or takeover?!
You muppets were putting in too many bids at close trying to get cheapies!
https://nz.linkedin.com/in/blairwoodbury
https://i.imgur.com/FweETwz.jpg
Strategic advisor for 9 months.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=37OWL7AzvHo
Investor day:
https://i.imgur.com/NJaq5rD.jpg
strategic
strategic
strategic
strategic
strategic
strategic
strategic
https://i.imgur.com/80uSbZD.jpg
Andrew Hirst appointed as "interim" CFO on 21st Jan.
Web archive of Sky's leadership team dated 8th Feb 2021.
https://web.archive.org/web/20210208091946/https://www.sky.co.nz/about-us/executive-leadership-team
Andrew Hirst no where to be seen?
https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif
Mmm, seems legit, why bother having his bio if he's just there as interim, right? No need to create one.
Fast forward to today:
https://www.sky.co.nz/about-us/executive-leadership-team
Andrew Hirst profile and bio appears:
https://i.imgur.com/nad2gfD.jpg
Yeah, lets update the website and create a full profile and bio for this temporary employee.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
airedale
27-05-2021, 08:22 AM
"Interim and secondment" are the key words on Andrew's profile. Eventually he will depart and say " my work is done".
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 08:56 AM
I have always maintained that it is highly likely that some level of discussion around a Vocus-Sky (and possibly 2Degrees) tie up is likely. Either already happening at a preliminary level, or will happen in the future.
The two businesses stand to gain a lot from each other.The current business partnership is great, but synergies are only realised when they merge.
Having 'talks' is one thing. Getting a deal done is another. And the biggest issue right now that would prevent a deal being done is Sky's current low SP. If Vocus can't look past the 17.5c value and agree to a more realistic value based on Earning Power, then The Board cannot recommend a deal. Shareholders would be better off sitting tight with the wholesale broadband deal.
We know that Sky are going to reinstate a dividend soon - almost certainly in the next FY. That could be as early as the second half of this year (perhaps something could be declared at the FY results). I personally would prefer a buyback at current prices, but let's just assume it is a dividend for the sake of the argument.
Sky TV are set to generate FCF of somewhere between $70M-$80M. A total dividend of 3c for the full year would be $52.4M (a payout ratio of 75% of the lower FCF range). If Sky maintain a payout ratio of up to 90% FCF then FCF would need to fall below $58M before the dividend would reduce. With earnings stabilising and the cost control measures being taken, plus the potential for growth in both Sky Box and streaming (something Sophie will cover off in the investor day) then a dividend of 3c/share could be maintained.
Well, if investors wanted a high yield for Sky of 12.5% given the uncertainties in the industry that would theoretically drive the SP to 24c. A 10% yield would be 30c.
There is a big bright light at the end of this tunnel and I feel we are getting close. It would make absolute zero sense for investors to sell the business for 30c/share or less when the SP is probably going to get up around there anyway once management start returning cash to investors.
I personally think 35c/share would be pushing it in any deal, and it really needs to be 40c+.
Though I absolutely love the idea of a Vocus-Sky merger - it really could be a wonderful business and great for consumers as Spark and Vodafone face a serious new challenger...the odds of a deal actually happening right now while the SP is so low is probably slim.
I have always maintained that it is highly likely that some level of discussion around a Vocus-Sky (and possibly 2Degrees) tie up is likely. Either already happening at a preliminary level, or will happen in the future.
The two businesses stand to gain a lot from each other.The current business partnership is great, but synergies are only realised when they merge.
Having 'talks' is one thing. Getting a deal done is another. And the biggest issue right now that would prevent a deal being done is Sky's current low SP. If Vocus can't look past the 17.5c value and agree to a more realistic value based on Earning Power, then The Board cannot recommend a deal. Shareholders would be better off sitting tight with the wholesale broadband deal.
We know that Sky are going to reinstate a dividend soon - almost certainly in the next FY. That could be as early as the second half of this year (perhaps something could be declared at the FY results). I personally would prefer a buyback at current prices, but let's just assume it is a dividend for the sake of the argument.
Sky TV are set to generate FCF of somewhere between $70M-$80M. A total dividend of 3c for the full year would be $52.4M (a payout ratio of 75% of the lower FCF range). If Sky maintain a payout ratio of up to 90% FCF then FCF would need to fall below $58M before the dividend would reduce. With earnings stabilising and the cost control measures being taken, plus the potential for growth in both Sky Box and streaming (something Sophie will cover off in the investor day) then a dividend of 3c/share could be maintained.
Well, if investors wanted a high yield for Sky of 12.5% given the uncertainties in the industry that would theoretically drive the SP to 24c. A 10% yield would be 30c.
There is a big bright light at the end of this tunnel and I feel we are getting close. It would make absolute zero sense for investors to sell the business for 30c/share or less when the SP is probably going to get up around there anyway once management start returning cash to investors.
I personally think 35c/share would be pushing it in any deal, and it really needs to be 40c+.
Though I absolutely love the idea of a Vocus-Sky merger - it really could be a wonderful business and great for consumers as Spark and Vodafone face a serious new challenger...the odds of a deal actually happening right now while the SP is so low is probably slim.
No dividends bro!
All dividends do is give the impression that Sky is a greedy over priced blood sucking corporation!
ClubsNZ will just start moaning again and will ask for an even bigger discount. The ComCom will then tighten up on any future transaction. Then the media will go on about Sky and write all these nasty articles about how their predators. It spreads on social media and then customers start cord cutting again! Worst of all it's just more money for TVNZ and Faafoi.
No buy backs bro!
After issuing more than a billion shares at 12c to bankers and their mates just 12 months ago. Let all these guys ride it out like the rest of us.
No mergers bro!
No one is gonna raise the valuation of Sky because the share price is "low". The shareprice is the shareprice.
Takeover bro!
The only way all our problems go away.
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 09:26 AM
No dividends bro!
All dividends do is give the impression that Sky is a greedy over priced blood sucking corporation!
ClubsNZ will just start moaning again and will ask for an even bigger discount. The ComCom will then tighten up on any future transaction. Then the media will go on about Sky and write all these nasty articles about how their predators. It spreads on social media and then customers start cord cutting again! Worst of all it's just more money for TVNZ and Faafoi.
No buy backs bro!
After issuing more than a billion shares at 12c to bankers and their mates just 12 months ago. Let all these guys ride it out like the rest of us.
What a load of bollocks.
No mergers bro!
No one is gonna raise the valuation of Sky because the share price is "low". The shareprice is the shareprice.
Agree 100% that the SP is the SP. This is why I think any merger deal becomes 'too hard'. Why would Vocus buy/merge with Sky for 35c+ when the market says the business is only worth 17.5c? But how could Sky possibly recommend shareholders sell out for a paltry sum now when they have already stated they will be distributing capital to shareholders in the next FY (which would have a positive impact on SP).
It just becomes too difficult I think.
Takeover bro!
The only way all our problems go away.
Disagree but open to a takeover if the price is right. We face the same issue as stated above though.
https://i.imgur.com/GXPZPsF.jpg
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 11:17 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/james-bond-meet-jeff-bezos-amazon-makes-115-billion-deal-for-mgm/H65YDGASUTVDXV73FNXWDC63PA/
Amazon paying over the odds to acquire MGM.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/james-bond-meet-jeff-bezos-amazon-makes-115-billion-deal-for-mgm/H65YDGASUTVDXV73FNXWDC63PA/
Amazon paying over the odds to acquire MGM.
Amazon paid 40 per cent more than other prospective buyers, including Apple and Comcast, thought MGM was worth.
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
God dam there's so much money out there! None for Sky shareholders though!
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 12:15 PM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/85251812/sky-tv-and-2degrees-negotiate-as-vodafone-merger-decision-nears
I didn't realise that Sky had offered 2Degrees a retransmission deal in 2016.
Forum goes down.
Stock drops to 17.1
Block trade coming up?
https://i.imgur.com/17IXrSu.gif
Alpha
27-05-2021, 02:16 PM
F5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5f5
Forum goes down.
Stock drops to 17.1
Block trade coming up?
https://i.imgur.com/17IXrSu.gif
No block trade yet, time to call Mr Singapore :p
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 02:50 PM
Interesting development abroad...
https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2021/05/26/streaming-and-linear-channels-dazn-joins-sky-q-in-germany/
https://newscorp.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/Q3-2021-Earnings-Press-Release_6-May-2021.pdf
Foxtel Australia
Subscription Video Services
Revenues in the quarter increased $61 million, or 13%, compared with the prior year, reflecting a $79 million, or
17%, positive impact from foreign currency fluctuations and higher revenues from Kayo and Binge. The revenue
increase was partially offset by the impact from fewer residential broadcast subscribers and a $7 million negative
impact from lower commercial subscription revenues primarily resulting from lower occupancy at hotels due to
ongoing national travel restrictions related to COVID-19. Adjusted Revenues decreased 4% compared to the prior
year.
As of March 31, 2021, Foxtel’s total closing paid subscribers were 3.541 million, a 21% increase compared to the
prior year, primarily due to the launch of Binge and the growth in Kayo subscribers, partially offset by lower
residential and commercial broadcast subscribers. 1.946 million of the total closing subscribers were residential
and commercial broadcast subscribers, and the remaining 1.595 million consisted of Kayo, Binge and Foxtel Now
subscribers. As of March 31, 2021, there were 914,000 Kayo subscribers (851,000 paying), compared to 444,000
subscribers (408,000 paying) in the prior year. Binge, which launched in May 2020, had 679,000 subscribers
(516,000 paying) as of March 31, 2021. As of March 31, 2021, there were 238,000 Foxtel Now subscribers
(228,000 paying), compared to 338,000 subscribers (317,000 paying) in the prior year.
Broadcast subscriber churn in the quarter increased to 20.1% from 17.5% in the prior year, due to fewer
promotions and the roll-off of lower value subscribers. Broadcast ARPU for the quarter increased 2% to A$80
(US$62).
Segment EBITDA in the quarter increased $23 million, or 34%, compared with the prior year. The improvement
was primarily driven by $22 million of lower sports programming rights and production costs, which reflects the
savings from renegotiated sports rights. The Segment EBITDA improvement was also due to a $14 million
positive impact from foreign currency fluctuations as well as lower transmission, marketing and employee costs,
partially offset by the increased investment in OTT products. Adjusted Segment EBITDA increased 13%
Foxtel Debt Amendment
In April, the Foxtel Debt Group amended its 2019 Credit Facility and 2017 Working Capital Facility to, among
other things, extend the debt maturity from November 2022 to May 2024 and reduce the applicable margin to
between 2.00% to 3.25%, depending on the Foxtel Debt Group’s net leverage ratio.
Alpha
27-05-2021, 02:53 PM
Still seeing heaps of these very small trades as well. What are they about?
Still seeing heaps of these very small trades as well. What are they about?
https://i.imgur.com/9feQRZL.jpg
Interesting development abroad...
https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2021/05/26/streaming-and-linear-channels-dazn-joins-sky-q-in-germany/
More proof that linear TV is here to say and will always be part of the mix in the future.
This is why Disney didn't pull ESPN recently. It's better to have broad reach than to cram everyone onto a streaming platform. Customers want choice!
They must be regretting pulling the Disney channel.
People will subscribe to Disney+ even if that same sh*t is on Sky.
It's just that no one will pay $50 to see Moana a few weeks before general release.
Bottom line is, peps love watching re-run crap on Sky and then also having a Disney+ for the new sh*t that comes out.
Disney channel will probably come back on Sky in the future. Stupid studio exes are slow leaners!
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 03:23 PM
Disney channel will probably come back on Sky in the future. Stupid studio exes are slow leaners!
Yes I think Sky will eventually get a "co-exclusive" deal to bring Disney content back to Sky Entertainment.
This is why Sky is talking about being a "Preferred Partner"
The new sh*t will always be on Disney+
But you might as well have all the re-runs on traditional lineal TV platforms. This way you get broad reach and still get some revenue through the door. The advertising dollars also help.
Seriously, don't under estimate how many peps will pay to watch Lion King 1995 for the 1000x time on TV.
Peps like to sit down on a Saturday afternoon and switch on the Disney channel and see the Lion King (1995) already 20mins in and be happy. Rather then spending 15mins scrolling through a massive library on a streaming platform trying to DECIDED something to watch.
But you can't do that anymore cause Disney pulled the farking channel....
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
17.0
https://i.imgur.com/I4im8z1.jpg
Buyers rushing to ASB Securities to place buy orders on SKT - Circa 27th May 2020
I'm buying $10k at close if there are silly sub 17 offers from bots!
https://i.imgur.com/UNYLu1U.gif
https://i.imgur.com/tWO57rN.jpg
Someone just chucked on 300k at 17.2.
What a scam
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
https://i.imgur.com/PmNcwGs.jpg
Proof.
The game is fixed. Can't even buy at close
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
Market is fixed.
Got pipped by "Mrs Singpaore" 3 mins before close.
What a joke.
I'm logging the fu*k off...
https://i.imgur.com/ktL7VzO.gif
mistaTea
27-05-2021, 05:11 PM
Market is fixed.
Got pipped by "Mrs Singpaore" 3 mins before close.
What a joke.
I'm logging the fu*k off...
https://i.imgur.com/ktL7VzO.gif
https://i.makeagif.com/media/2-18-2016/xIh25s.gif
YOU’LL BE BACK! YOU’LL WANT ME!!
YOU’LL NEED ME!!
17.0
https://i.imgur.com/I4im8z1.jpg
Buyers rushing to ASB Securities to place buy orders on SKT - Circa 27th May 2020
2020 ??? -- was this posting delayed for some reason ? ;)
LaserEyeKiwi
27-05-2021, 07:00 PM
Yes I think Sky will eventually get a "co-exclusive" deal to bring Disney content back to Sky Entertainment.
absolutely 100% not going to happen.
Disney has intentionally burned all its bridges in that regard and realigned the whole content strategy about maximizing Disney+ subs (and has been richly rewarded by Wall Street for that decision.) Disney went as far as to pay other streamers in the US hundreds of millions of dollars to cancel their rights to Disney content early.
The only avenue for consuming Disney movies outside of Disney+ is either in a cinema, or as outright individual title purchases from digital or physical stores.
(disclosure: I hold DIS)
Edit to add: the closest sky will get to non-sport Disney content is possibly having an opportunity of reselling Disney+ subscriptions as part of a bundle.
Marilyn Munroe
28-05-2021, 04:55 AM
absolutely 100% not going to happen.
So you reckon despite Disneys very ordinary production record recently their distribution decisions are top notch.
Lets wait and see
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
LaserEyeKiwi
28-05-2021, 10:13 AM
So you reckon despite Disneys very ordinary production record recently their distribution decisions are top notch.
Lets wait and see
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
By ”very ordinary production record” - do you mean the most successful decade of studio output ever by anyone by a gigantic margin? Or do you mean the fastest ever accumulation of direct-to-consumer subscriptions (159 million)?
By ”very ordinary production record” - do you mean the most successful decade of studio output ever by anyone by a gigantic margin? Or do you mean the fastest ever accumulation of direct-to-consumer subscriptions (159 million)?
It's because Disney buys everything! That's why they're the best. ie they take everything over!
The argument isn't about content, it's about disruption.
If you're on a flight from Auckland to Sydney, it's not realistic to expect someone to sign up to Disney+ for a 2 hour subscription. Or expect the air carrier to supply broadband to stream the content at no cost.
TV is a different media to streaming. Both have their advantages.
Disney pulling their content in the short term to roll out their new subscription platform some what does make sense. But the honey moon is over. You will see the content aggregate more as time goes by.
They'll just roll out Disney+++++, then aggregate the sh*t content back to TV. Rinse repeat. Sky will get some crumbs, but that's all it needs to survive.
After new Sky box gets rolled out and when Disney+ reaches global saturation the Disney channel will be back on Sky, maybe 5 years from now.
But it will just be a promotional channel asking peps to download the Disney app and install it.
The TV channel will mostly be the crappy repeat content and Moana movie trailers adverting $50 pay per views 24/7.
You'll see Disney flogging off their merchandise there too.
They'll be some decent content Saturday morning for example to keep peps watching etc.
Weather someone will keep their Sky subscription for this is the question.
mistaTea
28-05-2021, 10:47 AM
It's because Disney buys everything! That's why they're the best. ie they take everything over!
The argument isn't about content, it's about disruption.
If you're on a flight from Auckland to Sydney, it's not realistic to expect someone to sign up to Disney+ for a 2 hour subscription. Or expect the air carrier to supply broadband to stream the content at no cost.
TV is a different media to streaming. Both have their advantages.
Disney pulling their content in the short term to roll out their new subscription platform some what does make sense. But the honey moon is over. You will see the content aggregate more as time goes by.
They'll just roll out Disney+++++, then aggregate the sh*t content back to TV. Rinse repeat. Sky will get some crumbs, but that's all it needs to survive.
Yes, the key word here is "aggregation". One way or another, consumers will want to be able to pay one person to view all of the stuff they like in one place.
Yes, people are moving to watching their content by streaming instead of satellite...but the medium of viewing is less important than understanding the notion that "aggregation" is far from dead.
Sky are beefing up their streaming services and upping their game in the STB arena to give consumers what they want/need...
However, Sky is still the best positioned (by far) to become the preferred aggregator for NZ. That is not to say that someone else couldn't come in and take that role...but it would be quite hard for a new entrant to do that.
So long as Sky can keep their key deals in place (even on a co-exclusive basis), and provide the content on platforms (streaming, new STB) that consumers want...they will continue to maintain a very profitable business.
At the current SP, between FCF and the sale of the property...if Sky could buy back ~$100M worth of stock, they could probably buy back 500M shares (SP will increase somewhat as they start buying).
Then a $50M dividend in the future would be about 4c/share. Awesome for the long-term owners.
All of this doesn't matter because Discovery/Warner will buy Sky and roll Neon and Rugbypass into their global streaming platforms.
All other content, including NBCUniversal will be pulled from Sky eventually.
The new Skybox will be filled with Discovery/Warner bloatware.
Doesn't matter if they loose the Rugby rights. Price will drop to $50 per month and Discovery/Warner will still be making a killing as it's 100% margin for them!
Win Win!
Me asking David Zaslav for 30c a share for my Sky holdings...
https://i.imgur.com/sryArO7.jpg
Looks like Mr Singapore is back, go on Ogg add in your gif...
Looks like Mr Singapore is back, go on Ogg add in your gif...
https://i.imgur.com/RSZlCDM.gif
He's literally manipulating the price by pushing it down and capping it with his sell bot, then calling up Kiltearn to buy huge blocks from them off market.
I'm thinking about taking a holiday and returning on June 29, before I lose my mind!
Monarch
28-05-2021, 01:38 PM
Rather than a buy back, wouldn’t it make more sense to do a capital return and share cancellation?
mistaTea
28-05-2021, 01:42 PM
Rather than a buy back, wouldn’t it make more sense to do a capital return and share cancellation?
I think that works so long as they can meet IRD’s criteria for a capital return (so that it is not subject to tax).
So if they sold an asset and returned that capital to shareholders in the way you describe that should be fine.
However if some of the ‘capital return’ comes from operating earnings, I am not sure how it works with the tax man.
Sideshow Bob
28-05-2021, 01:47 PM
I think that works so long as they can meet IRD’s criteria for a capital return (so that it is not subject to tax).
So if they sold an asset and returned that capital to shareholders in the way you describe that should be fine.
However if some of the ‘capital return’ comes from operating earnings, I am not sure how it works with the tax man.
Given they not long did a capital raise in the depths of lockdown, couldn't they just say the effects of Covid have been negated and returning the cash.
Or am I just being way too simplistic where the IRD is concerned?? :confused:
Rather than a buy back, wouldn’t it make more sense to do a capital return and share cancellation?
Yeah, then Sky can focus on it's main ambition
https://i.imgur.com/OSR82Zw.jpg
Monarch
28-05-2021, 01:48 PM
Surely given capital was recently raised it can be later returned? If that isn’t an option then buy backs as a close second. Maybe we pay Mr Singapore to keep the price down so the buy back could mop up the non believers at good price 🌝
More nibbles for Mr Singapore
https://i.imgur.com/GJ3tOea.gif
NZX
https://i.imgur.com/P2rjmEC.gif
Off Market
https://i.imgur.com/msM26Y2.gif
@ 4:59:59
https://i.imgur.com/T5XLMIg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/rCzr4lE.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/F26A60N.gif
Sells are piling up here boys. Could go sub 17.
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/F7BEAEB52EB18E2DFDC24F0D27492E8F
Put a valuation on this would you MistaTea.
Accumulated losses $266,837,000
https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/service/services/documents/F7BEAEB52EB18E2DFDC24F0D27492E8F
Put a valuation on this would you MistaTea.
I think that's just the parent/holding company though.
Mobile company should be posting their 2020 financials soon though.
https://app.companiesoffice.govt.nz/companies/app/ui/pages/companies/1117222/documents
Some numbers have been posted tho:
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/2degrees-in-profit-for-fifth-year-straight-names-d-day/6RD5LETBOEWWL4XIVAUKXRVPCQ/
https://i.imgur.com/mZbyRiV.jpg
$1b at most tho right? 30 PE?
Rough back of an envelope calculation:
Revenue:
2 Degrees $700m
Sky: $700m
Vocus $210m
Total: $1.6B
EBITA:
2 Degrees $180m
Sky: $175m
Vocus: $35.7 million
Total: $390m
Vodafone NZ was sold for $3.4 billion back in 2019
Revenue was $2.05b.
EBITDA was $463m
I would put 2 Degrees/Sky/Vocus @ $2.5b
Breakdown as followed
2 Degrees $1200m
Sky $600m
Vocus $700m
34c per share Sky valuation.
Thoughts?
Maybe 2 Degrees is worth more, but then the parent company is probably worth more.
So like $1.7b for 2 Degrees, and then $3b for group.
It's likely that Vodafone NZ valuation is up 20% since 2019. So that puts Vodafone NZ at $4b-ish now. So Vodafone NZ would be worth 33% more, and then Spark is double that?
Synergies would squeeze out more value too.
mistaTea
28-05-2021, 04:01 PM
Rough back of an envelope calculation:
34c per share Sky valuation.
Thoughts?
I am only interested in a deal that values my shares at...ONE MILLION DOLLARS (https://media.tenor.com/images/faf934d304adf3abe163e3a6d192c178/tenor.gif)!
I am only interested in a deal that values my shares at...ONE MILLION DOLLARS (https://media.tenor.com/images/faf934d304adf3abe163e3a6d192c178/tenor.gif)!
41c per share?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA
Alpha
28-05-2021, 04:15 PM
Sorry to interrupt your valuations and this has already been discussed but not sure if the date has as this fits as well with moving the date right?
They have added so much more to this listing. Its almost like it was delayeed going up. Then it went up with very little write up. Now its like sell the dam thing as were moving.
The properties at 16 and 34 Leonard Road, Mt Wellington will be sold together or separately through Colliers by deadline for offers closing at 4pm on Tuesday 8 June, unless sold prior.
Edit - I'd happily accept anything over 40cents
Sorry to interrupt your valuations and this has already been discussed but not sure if the date has as this fits as well with moving the date right?
They have added so much more to this listing. Its almost like it was delayeed going up. Then it went up with very little write up. Now its like sell the dam thing as were moving.
The properties at 16 and 34 Leonard Road, Mt Wellington will be sold together or separately through Colliers by deadline for offers closing at 4pm on Tuesday 8 June, unless sold prior.
Edit - I'd happily accept anything over 40cents
What are you going on about? This is the listing here, it hasn't changed.
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/properties/significant-industrial-offering/nzl-16-34-leonard-road-mount-wellington-auckland-city-auckland/nzl67014700
The properties will be sold. The market is hot right now. The highest offer will be taken what ever that is. A sales and purchase agreement will be signed before the 29th of June.
mistaTea
28-05-2021, 04:26 PM
41c per share?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jL2DH-nKBeA
41c per share is only about 4.5 EBITDA mate…
Me @ 4:49:59
https://i.imgur.com/aOoeCfg.gif
Alpha
28-05-2021, 04:34 PM
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale
Sorry I was on News instead. However on this piece it has the deadline date being the 8th of June. Where on your link the listing does not mention this.
So it just reconfirmed offers need to be in before 8th of June which is well before 29th our DD.
I'm not sure if settlement will occur before then. But correct I agree the properties will be sold and we will in one way or form.
https://www.colliers.co.nz/en-nz/news/the-one-to-watch-sky-tv-buildings-for-sale
Sorry I was on News instead. However on this piece it has the deadline date being the 8th of June. Where on your link the listing does not mention this.
So it just reconfirmed offers need to be in before 8th of June which is well before 29th our DD.
I'm not sure if settlement will occur before then. But correct I agree the properties will be sold and we will in one way or form.
Settlement no, but all that matters is a signed sales contract.
I think it's just normal with these large industrial properties that it's always just deadline sale, aka negotiation.
Alpha
28-05-2021, 04:44 PM
Question why is it always circa 2M of shares.
And if not why don't they just get it over and done. Is it a matter of funds?
Its not like us plebs havent noticed these trades almost every day going through?
What is the total at now?
Alpha
28-05-2021, 04:46 PM
Settlement no, but all that matters is a signed sales contract.
I think it's just normal with these large industrial properties that it's always just deadline sale, aka negotiation.
Correct pretty much a tender but with the ability to sell prior.
So I may have emailed and asked for documents, ill share here when I get a copy. I'm interested in any further terms of sale. IE the sale is conditional on ..... the a merger
https://i.imgur.com/pctPOdM.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/CKYvG9V.gif
50,000 @ 17.1 lbs guys!
https://i.imgur.com/chyjYwq.jpg
What a great day.
Dlownz
28-05-2021, 05:14 PM
Kilkern slowly winding down there holding. Moving onto other things.
It has created weakness in the share price which was showing done strength. As soon as it starts climbing they unload a little more so they don't bring it down too much and cost them money.
Guess they gave it a year thinking they would make a killing which hasnt quite gone to plan.
Only a great improvement in satalite subs with a reversal of there predicted revenue decline will turn this around. I'd love it if they actually start forecasting revenue growing in the next result.
And if course even though its a contenteous subject a return to dividends will show theyhave truly corrected course. Or we could see this price stay for awhile yet.
LaserEyeKiwi
28-05-2021, 05:42 PM
Is it more likely the investor day was moved to accommodate the outcome of the property sale - rather than any takeover/merger deal?
Is it more likely the investor day was moved to accommodate the outcome of the property sale - rather than any takeover/merger deal?
Yeah, because the investor day is about two old warehouses being sold off.
Slide 1 of the investor presentation:
https://i.imgur.com/K8YiP8U.jpg
Look at that dump.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
LaserEyeKiwi
29-05-2021, 11:23 AM
Yeah, because the investor day is about two old warehouses being sold off.
Slide 1 of the investor presentation:
https://i.imgur.com/K8YiP8U.jpg
Look at that dump.
https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif
The sale price of those “two old warehouses” will likely represent somewhere between 5-10% of the company’s current market cap. I’d say that indeed qualifies as a significant event worthy of changing the timing of an investor presentation by a couple of weeks.
mistaTea
29-05-2021, 11:48 AM
The sale price of those “two old warehouses” will likely represent somewhere between 5-10% of the company’s current market cap. I’d say that indeed qualifies as a significant event worthy of changing the timing of an investor presentation by a couple of weeks.
You think only $15M-$30M?
I appreciate the cross lease puts some restrictions on the property…but I still thought it would be worth more than that given the size of the land and buildings…
LaserEyeKiwi
29-05-2021, 12:13 PM
You think only $15M-$30M?
I appreciate the cross lease puts some restrictions on the property…but I still thought it would be worth more than that given the size of the land and buildings…
Was trying to be conservative - don’t want to be disappointed.
The sale price of those “two old warehouses” will likely represent somewhere between 5-10% of the company’s current market cap. I’d say that indeed qualifies as a significant event worthy of changing the timing of an investor presentation by a couple of weeks.
It's ~3%.
Even if it was 50% there's no reason to delay the investor presentation. The buildings have nothing to do with Sky's business plan.
If Sky was a property company, THEN MAYBE, but even then you can easily just write something about the sale process in the investor presentation based on the likelihood that the buildings are going to be sold, as there's no reason why they won't be sold, hence you just move forward on that presumption.
Anyway, why would you continually move other events around waiting for something to be absolutely certain. OSB took months to sell. It's not like everything was put on hold because of that. If the buildings never sell does that mean the investor day never happens?
It's plain and simple. The investor day was moved because something material has happened.
The buildings aren't material because the NZX announcement on the 26th March was not marked as price sensitive. Hence there not material.
Therefore something else must have happened in order for them to change the date.
Now ponder this: The investor day announcement doesn't mention anything about dividends or returning capital to shareholders, however it mentions the word "grow" twice. You will also see that they are inviting analysts as well, so it's an "Analysts Day" as much as it is an investor day.
If they're going to announce something big, then June 29 is the day!
Maybe nothing happens on the 29th, but if that's the case don't expect anything to happen on the 30th, or even months later.
mistaTea
29-05-2021, 01:05 PM
It's ~3%.
If all that land plus the two buildings is only worth $10M…why bother selling it?
If all that land plus the two buildings is only worth $10M…why bother selling it?
https://i.imgur.com/MvNBI7d.jpg
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