SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12452467

Sky keep NRL.

great news.

The missing sport in that article is A-league football, which is headed to paramount+ in Australia (ViacomCBS made the A-league a cornerstone of the service ahead of its upcoming launch in August).

‘not sure exactly when skys current rights for a league expire.

[mistaTea]

great news.

The missing sport in that article is A-league football, which is headed to paramount+ in Australia (ViacomCBS made the A-league a cornerstone of the service ahead of its upcoming launch in August).

‘not sure exactly when skys current rights for a league expire.
Current rights go to the end of 2022 I believe.

They go for 5 years at a time like rugby if I am not mistake.

So, at a minimum, we have NZRU until the end of 2025 and NRL until the end of 2027.

Awesome that both of these important rights are staggered and don’t come up for negotiation around the same time.

[mistaTea]

Current rights go to the end of 2022 I believe.

They go for 5 years at a time like rugby if I am not mistake.

So, at a minimum, we have NZRU until the end of 2025 and NRL until the end of 2027.

Awesome that both of these important rights are staggered and don’t come up for negotiation around the same time.

And I just realised I misread the last bit of your message!

A League, not League! Doh!

[Not The Chosen One]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12452467

Sky keep NRL.

Great news as a league fan. I wonder if Spark had a crack since they got the rights to the rugby league world cup?
Sky share price might only dip a little after this good bit of news.

[mistaTea]

Great news as a league fan. I wonder if Spark had a crack since they got the rights to the rugby league world cup?
Sky share price might only dip a little after this good bit of news.

Yeah if we lost the rights it would have crashed to 10c.

By winning the rights it should only dip to 16c!

[RTM]

Yeah if we lost the rights it would have crashed to 10c.

By winning the rights it should only dip to 16c!

I am wondering about the future of both Union and League. Many families will be considering pretty carefully whether little Johnny/Mary should be playing them. I got concussed pretty badly when I was a kid, my Dad stopped me playing rugby…until I got to Varsity and knew better….

[jimdog31]

https://i.imgur.com/ymb5bcc.jpg


https://i.imgur.com/gavlsi2.jpg

surely!!!!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I am wondering about the future of both Union and League. Many families will be considering pretty carefully whether little Johnny/Mary should be playing them. I got concussed pretty badly when I was a kid, my Dad stopped me playing rugby…until I got to Varsity and knew better….

and yet boxing and UFC are still growing in popularity as spectator sports, despite the fact one of the ways you win a match is by giving your opposition temporary brain damage to the level that they either pass out or are unable to stand.

[mistaTea]

and yet boxing and UFC are still growing in popularity as spectator sports, despite the fact one of the ways you win a match is by giving your opposition temporary brain damage to the level that they either pass out or are unable to stand.

'Civilised society' hasn't evolved as much as we might like to think.

I for one quite enjoy watching to big blokes punch each other in the head, hopefully ending in knock out. It is so primitive, but I like it.

And for UFC...in my experience the women fights are often the most vicious! Nothing quite like watching two dangerous-looking broads beat the crap out of each other!

[RTM]

'Civilised society' hasn't evolved as much as we might like to think.

I for one quite enjoy watching to big blokes punch each other in the head, hopefully ending in knock out. It is so primitive, but I like it.

And for UFC...in my experience the women fights are often the most vicious! Nothing quite like watching two dangerous-looking broads beat the crap out of each other!

Yes...agree. Its mesmerizing ! And, yes, the dichotomy between Boxing / UFC and Union / League with the way they approach head injuries is incredible.

[mistaTea]

Yes...agree. Its mesmerizing ! And, yes, the dichotomy between Boxing / UFC and Union / League with the way they approach head injuries is incredible.

There is an awesome trilogy on Youtube 'Gatti vs Ward'. They ended up making a movie about Micky Ward (cast as Mark Wahlberg) called The Fighter.

Anyway, if you like boxing you should watch the matches between these two.

My God the way they slugged it out was like nothing I have ever seen before!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Going back to the league announcement. There are a lot of mentions about Sky helping grow the game in NZ with the new deal. I wonder if plans for a 2nd (and maybe even a third) NZ team are progressing behind the scenes as part of this deal.

One would think it would be in Sky’s best interest to have more NZ NRL teams in the doomsday scenario where they lose NZ rugby rights at a future date.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2021/05/17/grand-plans-inside-the-$30m-bid-for-a-second-new-zealand-team/

[mikelee]

17↑

https://i.imgur.com/vAlAJpZ.jpg

I'll be more excited if it can finally break its previous high of 0.189 ;)

[mistaTea]

People starting to hate on Spark Sport.

LOL, there are four comments dude.

Not sure what the last guy is talking about Spark Sport being a substandard platrform. I actually think their app is better than SSN.

Lucky for us Spark do build very nice apps...which they then let us buy :D

I don't think SS will throw in the towel just yet, but you have to question the viability of the platform now that NRL is off the cards, and no other top tier sport is coming up for negotiation anytime soon.

We needed to keep NRL, but they REALLY needed to win it from us to give their platform long-term credibility as a major sport destination.

I suspect we did write a juicy big cheque for this one - but totally worth it as we secure our position as unquestionably the home of sport.

Hopefully commonsense prevails soon and Spark exit the live sport gig. This town just isn't big enough for two players.

[cyclist]

Agree with you mistaTea. I think this is pretty significant. The length of these deals means it is a long time between drinks. Spark Sport are running out of extra options to gain some traction with.

[biker]

Topped up with a solid block of shares today at 17c. Looking for a 14 month high next week.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://nz.linkedin.com/in/james-bishop-6657788a

"Extensive experience leading and managing strategic transactions and projects, corporate governance and legal functions."

https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif

holy crap! That’s a bit on the nose lol

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/ct0af6t.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/qjjie0Y.jpg

This guy is way over qualified for some lame secretary job!

Why would you bring this guy on?

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Hmmmn.

Interesting.

I think this is a mark against any merger theories. I can't see why you would hire a senior exec for this now if the company was about to have a major change.

Oh well! Buybacks and divvy's it is then! :D

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/AKQRUjh.jpg

He's a god dam lawyer too

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

He is basically a Project Manager mate. Nothing to see here.

[mistaTea]

Cause it's gonna take 6 months to get a merger/takeover done.

He's a front man for the media circus to handle all the enquires.

You are clutching at straws again mate. Seeing things that aren't there.

Take your Ritalin, be calm... we are so close to Investor Day now...

[mistaTea]

Chris was doing a good job. Why would she move aside but not stand down?

It was just a few weeks ago when they said they were trimming their management team.


No idea, I can't possibly answer that.

But Chris Major is External Relations (Which looks like a more general External Communications role).

James Bishop is Company Secretary and Investor Relations. Very different roles and skillsets.

I don't think you can conclude that they have hired him to work on a merger. Pretty sure if things were that advanced they would have needed to make an announcement?

At the end of the day, I have no idea... just urging you to be cautious. I know you get very...antsy...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

17.2 (you’re welcome)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Is the property listing still up?

Edit: Nevermind I see it’s still there

[jimdog31]

Who cares...

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

My biggest fear with all of these scenarios???

Ogg stops posting!!

I never thought id grow to loving Nicholas cage memes like i do now

Mista, deep down, you love it too.

[mistaTea]

Who cares...

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

I do.

That’s our buyback money…

[jimdog31]

He's still working for "Crown Infrastructure Partners"

It's another temp job

https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif

Seriously, you don't just bring someone in fresh on a part time bases to act as the head of IR.

You normally appoint someone who has been in the company for a year or so, so they understand the business.

This guy has just been thrown in there and probably knows nothing about Sky NZ.

He's a transaction and regulatory lawyer.

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif


All of the events of the last 12 months......

There has to be some sick twist at the end.

https://imgur.com/gallery/lpWK1 (https://imgur.com/gallery/lpWK1)

[nztx]

My biggest fear with all of these scenarios???

Ogg stops posting!!

I never thought id grow to loving Nicholas cage memes like i do now

Mista, deep down, you love it too.


Very good - jimdog .. ;)

[jimdog31]

"Let's reduce our management team but bring on a high priced lawyer as a secretary"

https://i.imgur.com/i8CxXro.gif

Probably have to as a result of your complaint regarding handleys disclosures..............

[mistaTea]

If there is no 'catalyst event' anytime soon...it's still all gravy, light at the end of the tunnel.

Management will do a buyback of, say, $50M worth ($30M from property sale + $20M FCF). They could comfortably buy back 250M shares.

That leaves ~1.5B shares outstanding.

Then, if we assume a low range FCF of $70M...an 85% payout ratio would be $60M - 4c/share. That would be a tasty divvy!

Depending on how the Investor Day goes, if some confidence is created around Sky's future, even if the market still wanted a high 10% yield until they saw more progress and deals plus meaningful broadband market share...that would still be 40c/share.

Now that the NRL risk has been removed, I think more optimism is warranted.

If a catalyst event like merger or takeover was to be presented to us... it would need to be at least as good as what I outlined above.

Not long now! Where is that timer of yours Ogg?

[DeathByWarriors]

"Let's reduce our management team but bring on a high priced lawyer as a secretary"

https://i.imgur.com/i8CxXro.gif

Aren't most Company Secretaries high priced lawyers? Seems like a pre-req for that type of role

[mistaTea]

https://timer.getmara.com/ZGF0ZT0yMDIxLTA2LTI5JnRpbWU9MDklM0EwMCZ0aW1lem9uZT 1QYWNpZmljJTJGQXVja2xhbmQmYmNrQ29sb3I9RkZGRkZGJmZv bnRDb2xvcj0wMDAwMDAmbGFiZWxDb2xvcj00NDQ0NDQmZGF5TG FiZWw9ZGF5cyZob3VyTGFiZWw9aG91cnMmbWluTGFiZWw9bWlu JnNlY0xhYmVsPXNlYw==.gif

I've changed my mind again bro.

I'm outs on the 29th take over or not.

https://i.imgur.com/ktL7VzO.gif\

Either the takeover happens and I sell at 30c, or I'm out at what ever the price is, as I've been dicked around with these all tease announcements too much!

If it an't happening on the 29th it's never happening.

I sense much fear in you.

Fear leads to anger…anger leads to hate…hate leads to…suffering…

And I sense much fear in you…

[Joshuatree]

Been a bit of a fizzer since Sky increased guidance in early Feb,looked like a sure thing for easy,big gains,hard not to be a bit stale atpit.

[nztx]

Jogging on the spot until everyone sees it's actually for real IMO .. ;)

Will Ogg honestly bail on that ? ;)

[mistaTea]

Jogging on the spot until everyone sees it's actually for real IMO .. ;)

Will Ogg honestly bail on that ? ;)

Ogg will never leave us.

He…can’t…

[Joshuatree]

Double whammy

[mistaTea]

June 29

https://i.imgur.com/yZXo9tN.gif

Just over 5 days to go…

Ogg may trim his holding back on June 29…but he will never leave us altogether…

He needs us. And, by God, we need his crazy theories and Nicholas Cage memes.

Speaking of Cage, I started watching his latest masterpiece - Jiu Jitsu. Need to finish it today, but so far it is so bad that it is goooooood!

[clown]

Just over 5 days to go…

Ogg may trim his holding back on June 29…but he will never leave us altogether…

He needs us. And, by God, we need his crazy theories and Nicholas Cage memes.

Speaking of Cage, I started watching his latest masterpiece - Jiu Jitsu. Need to finish it today, but so far it is so bad that it is goooooood!


I agree, OGG = SKT

Jiu Jitsu is on my watch list for the weekend.

On another note, I watched the new series Limetown. It was produced by Facebook Watch.. First time I've heard of FB producing anything...

[mistaTea]

I imagine that Ogg is going to kidnap Andrew Hirst today, and spend the next few days trying to break him down and get him to sign the merger deal.

After days of punishing interrogation (which will no doubt include copious amounts of Cage memes...), then in the early hours of the morning before the Investor Day, this will be Ogg and Andrew...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yL9Y24ciNWs

[mistaTea]

I think SS will be around for a while yet. They will go hammer and tongs to get the A-League I suppose.

Not time for Sky to let its guard down, even though the NRL news is absolutely fantastic.

[jimdog31]

I think SS will be around for a while yet. They will go hammer and tongs to get the A-League I suppose.

Not time for Sky to let its guard down, even though the NRL news is absolutely fantastic.


So Fantastic the share price moved 0.2 pts. The buyback needs to bring some value back to this!

[silu]

https://i.imgur.com/6x1aKcS.jpg

Except Spark Sports App is WAY WAY superior to the Sky Sports Now app. I truly hope this piece of sh*t app gets upgraded. I'm paying $39.99 a month for this.

[mistaTea]

Except Spark Sports App is WAY WAY superior to the Sky Sports Now app. I truly hope this piece of sh*t app gets upgraded. I'm paying $39.99 a month for this.

Agree - best case we get to buy SS like we did Lightbox.

Spark build really nice apps - better than Sky do that's for sure!

I like this model...Spark build it, we buy it :D

[jimdog31]

Sorry to rehash this but is the NRL signing apart of the reason for the change in investor day dates? Ie they can present their strategy clearer?

[jimdog31]

Don't ruin this big day for me.

https://i.imgur.com/lSa9R4S.jpg

ok, ok, less logic, more conspiracy! :p

[silu]

Agree - best case we get to buy SS like we did Lightbox.

Spark build really nice apps - better than Sky do that's for sure!

I like this model...Spark build it, we buy it :D

Just to make sure my only issue is with the app. Well I have another that they don't have an in-house editor so highlight packages sometimes take ages to come online. The production (especially Rugby games) is unmatched in the world IMO. That's from the Production box to the camera team etc. Absolute top notch (except Justin Marshall)

[jimdog31]

Don't ruin this big day for me.

https://i.imgur.com/lSa9R4S.jpg

There's room on here just saying

12659

[mistaTea]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-court-approves-scheme-of-arrangement.6125255/

Vocus free to make a move now...

[mistaTea]

They better hurry the f**k up

https://i.imgur.com/9TpNEfh.gif

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/23/tech/john-mcafee-death/index.html

Looks like John couldn't handle the wait for the Investor Day and the low trading value of his Sky shares got to him...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sky Partners With Discovery Nz To Serve Wimbledon

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/CU2106/S00171/sky-partners-with-discovery-nz-to-serve-wimbledon.htm

What's the point of this? Buy TV3 so you can give away free content but customers still pay?

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Discovery gives Sky some cash for this deal presumably, which I don't mind since its a middle of the night event that not many will watch, and the die hard tennis fans that will watch it are all subscribed to sky anyway.

[mistaTea]

Discovery gives Sky some cash for this deal presumably, which I don't mind since its a middle of the night event that not many will watch, and the die hard tennis fans that will watch it are all subscribed to sky anyway.

Really interesting to watch how the business keeps evolving. No way would you see old Sky doing stuff like this.

I think it is a good deal for a number of reasons:

1. Deepens relationship with Discovery as a valued partner. Bodes well for future negotiations if we keep finding new ways to partner with them.
2. Yes Discovery will pay Sky $x for the right to broadcast the tennis. Another way of thinking about this is that Discovery are effectively reducing our Wimbledon content cost. However existing subs are not going to cancel Sky Sport just because some of the tennis will be free on TV3. And people who are going to sign up for a new Sky Sport sub are unlikely to shelf that plan just because some tennis is going to be on TV3.

I think it is a win-win.

They may do other Deals with Discovery - maybe let them broadcast the final Bledisloe Cup match. Deals like that where it will have zero impact on Sky subs yet bring in more revenue and further enhance/deepen our relationship with Discovery so they don't screw us in later years by taking everything OTT.

[ados_nz]

Sky Partners With Discovery Nz To Serve Wimbledon

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/CU2106/S00171/sky-partners-with-discovery-nz-to-serve-wimbledon.htm

What's the point of this? Buy TV3 so you can give away free content but customers still pay?

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

I was expecting some deep speculation from you on the "“Once again, we are excited to expand our evolving partnership with Sky..." statement.

[ados_nz]

.... double post

[jimdog31]

James Bishop linkedin page:

https://nz.linkedin.com/in/james-bishop-6657788a

No mention of Sky TV

https://i.imgur.com/GQLhgU2.gif

I wonder why...

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Linkedin is trying to tell you something here.....

12662

[mistaTea]

Send him a DM. Ask him when the merger is happening.

We want a buyback, then divvy to push SP to 40c…

And THEN a merger to give Sky the best possible valuation.

[jimdog31]

https://youtu.be/qLrX3hDCC9Q

around 21:00 is where sky is at currently!

[jimdog31]

Assuming they can acquire it for $300m and then use $50m available cash.

Total debt would be ~$250m

New company would have:

~1.2m Customers

~1B Revenue

Amusing debt servicing would be around $20m per year, they should be able to pay a modest dividend. No buy backs tho.

Enterprise valuation at 30c would be $775m.

This seems like the best way forward.

Focus over the next few years would be paying down debt and then securing rugby rights post 2025.

Because you have left off the Nicholas cage memes , this feels less likely to happen. Or maybe it feels more likely??

https://tenor.com/view/kramer-shocked-kramer-shocked-distorted-distortion-gif-17534376

[mistaTea]

New Conspiracy Theory:
https://i.imgur.com/gdLNKAB.jpeg



The Vocus NZ retail arm is going to get spun off from the NZ wholesale division.

Retail makes up 66% of the revenue. This part of the business will have a lower valuation multiple, as it has a lower margin. Possibly as low as 1 X revenue.

Sky could buy this with existing draw down facility, cash on hand, and also from the property sale.


Take your Ritalin please.

[Monarch]

I will be pretty shocked if sky buys anything that big given they have repeatedly said they want a "capital light model". Would definitely reconsider my holding here if they did saddle themselves up with that much debt.

[mistaTea]

I will be pretty shocked if sky buys anything that big given they have repeatedly said they want a "capital light model". Would definitely reconsider my holding here if they did saddle themselves up with that much debt.

Yes it would go against that model.

It is such a hare-brained idea I wouldn't give it any though.

Sorry Ogg, but not your best work mate. I expect so much better from you!

[sb9]

https://i.imgur.com/GH5ILZv.jpg

Something better happen on Tuesday or I'm:

https://i.imgur.com/ktL7VzO.gif

I wouldn't hold my breath for anything material to occur of Tue 29th Investor Day. It'll be nice if it did, but I don't believe so. Basically Management along with Board will outline their future strategic goals and direction as to how they would like to steer the company to create better outcome for customers and thereby shareholders.

Only material announcement I'm picking is that, there could be a possible upgrade to earnings. So if you're hoping and praying for anything other than that, it could turn out to be BIG ANTI-CLIMAX. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than expect something big and it may turn out to be fizzer.

[biker]

I wouldn't hold my breath for anything material to occur of Tue 29th Investor Day. It'll be nice if it did, but I don't believe so. Basically Management along with Board will outline their future strategic goals and direction as to how they would like to steer the company to create better outcome for customers and thereby shareholders.

Only material announcement I'm picking is that, there could be a possible upgrade to earnings. So if you're hoping and praying for anything other than that, it could turn out to be BIG ANTI-CLIMAX. Better to expect nothing and be pleasantly surprised than expect something big and it may turn out to be fizzer.

Not many ‘investor briefings’ are scheduled for 3 hours are they?
Maybe a trading halt at 9am, a significant announcement and explanation and questions until about 12 then trading resuming in the afternoon when Australia is open.

[jimdog31]

Not many ‘investor briefings’ are scheduled for 3 hours are they?
Maybe a trading halt at 9am, a significant announcement and explanation and questions until about 12 then trading resuming in the afternoon when Australia is open.

the believers on here all believe this is undervalued (of which im a firm believer)

during this 3 hour briefing what could possible be said to make the price go south as opposed to north?

I agree taking on debt in a transaction could be one catalyst for southwards movement.

Mista, id be keen to know what presented scenario could potentially cause a SP decline.



anyone else?

[sb9]

Not many ‘investor briefings’ are scheduled for 3 hours are they?
Maybe a trading halt at 9am, a significant announcement and explanation and questions until about 12 then trading resuming in the afternoon when Australia is open.

Gentrack did one recently for that length of time. Also bear in mind, if management are aware of anything material ahead of days should promptly inform market.

[mistaTea]

Gentrack did one recently for that length of time. Also bear in mind, if management are aware of anything material ahead of days should promptly inform market.

100%. If they were certain of a merger/takeover they would have to let the market know.

I think it will take them three hours easily to review progress to date, and describe the plans for the future. They have a lot to cover, including:



Subscription growth trends. Base stabilisation + streaming progress
Property Sale
Broadband progress and numbers
New STB. What it is, why we need it, how it will help with subs
Content deals - how we can ensure we are the preferred partner for all key rights (entertainment + sport)
RugbyPass. How did SR Aotearoa go, do we still see long term value in the platform?
Buybacks and dividends - when can shareholders expect cash to start being returned
Further revenue diversification...entry into Mobile?
Other opportunities for growth. How can the pristine Balance Sheet be leveraged for more aggressive growth?
Q&A


There is a lot for Sophie and the team to cover.

[mistaTea]

Mista, id be keen to know what presented scenario could potentially cause a SP decline.



I reckon another Earnings Upgrade oughta do it :D

[jimdog31]

I reckon another Earnings Upgrade oughta do it :D

Sadly, I cant argue with that

[mistaTea]

Subscription growth trends. Base stabilisation + streaming progress The same as before
Property Sale Sold conditionally, price withheld.
Broadband progress and numbers Not that many, still early days.
New STB. What it is, why we need it, how it will help with subs No ETA, expect more delays.
Content deals - how we can ensure we are the preferred partner for all key rights (entertainment + sport) We're going to pay more.
RugbyPass. How did SR Aotearoa go, do we still see long term value in the platform? We're trying hard to clean up Martin's mess.
Buybacks and dividends - when can shareholders expect cash to start being returned No, cause we're being taken over!
Further revenue diversification...entry into Mobile? Just lol
Other opportunities for growth. How can the pristine Balance Sheet be leveraged for more aggressive growth? N/A
Q&A When is the implementation date, so I can get rid of this dog and get paid???





I wonder if they will invite mistaTea on as a special guest speaker…

[mistaTea]

Sadly, I cant argue with that

It’s a fantastic business that way. The better the future prospects the lower the quoted value.

Allows us to buy more at great prices…

I topped up over the last couple of days @17c.

[mistaTea]

www.gamblinghelpline.co.nz (http://www.gamblinghelpline.co.nz)

Isn’t gambling literally what you are doing with this stock?

Hmmmmn.

[mistaTea]

All major content deals locked up for years to come, FCF of $70M+ expected for years to come.

All major CAPEX spend required for transition completed and now and future is very much a model based on partnerships designed to be capital light…

And the business is valued at 1.7x EBITDA…

Ogg, can you put a video together of that toothless Mexican guy hysterically laughing?

With subtitles applicable to Sky TV…

[Rustycage]

Do you have anything special lined up GIF-wise if your wish comes true?

[mistaTea]

Just over one day to go (https://timer.getmara.com/ZGF0ZT0yMDIxLTA2LTI5JnRpbWU9MDklM0EwMCZ0aW1lem9uZT 1QYWNpZmljJTJGQXVja2xhbmQmYmNrQ29sb3I9RkZGRkZGJmZv bnRDb2xvcj0wMDAwMDAmbGFiZWxDb2xvcj00NDQ0NDQmZGF5TG FiZWw9ZGF5cyZob3VyTGFiZWw9aG91cnMmbWluTGFiZWw9bWlu JnNlY0xhYmVsPXNlYw==.gif)...unless there is a trading halt today.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I think you guys are absolutely dreaming and misleading less experienced people. A company has continuous disclosure obligations and would not book an investor day many weeks out to announce a takeover or merger.

Disc: hold.

[mistaTea]

I think you guys are absolutely dreaming and misleading less experienced people. A company has continuous disclosure obligations and would not book an investor day many weeks out to announce a takeover or merger.

Disc: hold.

If "less experienced" people are coming onto this forum for sound investment advice, then God help them.

Investor Day has been booked for management to spend time with shareholders and analysts to update everyone on progress and chart the way forward. Nothing to do with takeovers, mergers or anything else.

But just because Sky has booked an Investor Day, does not mean that interested parties are not taking a look at opportunities.

If anybody is buying Sky shares because they think some kind of catalyst event like a takeover/merger is imminent due to some posts by people they don't even know on this forum then I think they are damn foolish.

Charlie Munger would describe that as asinine.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

https://i.imgur.com/7scR98P.jpg

Read "Protocol B"

https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/117005/718642/MK_CorporateGovernance_TakeoverProtocol.pdf/

Disc: read signature

I am extremely familiar with takeover procedures, including confidential due diligence. If you think an investor day has any correlation with takeover discussions you are clearly well out of your depth (which is quite obvious from your post history).

[Baa_Baa]

If "less experienced" people are coming onto this forum for sound investment advice, then God help them.

[snip]

If anybody is buying Sky shares because they think some kind of catalyst event like a takeover/merger is imminent due to some posts by people they don't even know on this forum then I think they are damn foolish.

Charlie Munger would describe that as asinine.

"There are currently 44 users browsing this thread. (12 members and 32 guests)"

Hopefully none of them are "less experienced" or "asinine".

[airedale]

Over the years I have noticed that when a company has an investor day or an investor presentation then the SP drops on that day. It may well rise eventually but there are never any fireworks on the day.

[mistaTea]

Of keen interest tomorrow will be to understand management plans to start returning capital to shareholders.

Depending on the sale of the property, I am thinking a $50M buyback.

And then declare a 2c/share divvy at the end of the year ($35M).

Between FCF + property sale, Sky could easily return $85M to shareholders this year.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Of keen interest tomorrow will be to understand management plans to start returning capital to shareholders.

Depending on the sale of the property, I am thinking a $50M buyback.

And then declare a 2c/share divvy at the end of the year ($35M).

Between FCF + property sale, Sky could easily return $85M to shareholders this year.

I think they have already stated they will look at reinstating dividend in next financial year - which starts this week on July 1st! - so we indeed might get a commitment to that tomorrow, which would be market moving news one would think.

[Habits]

Over the years I have noticed that when a company has an investor day or an investor presentation then the SP drops on that day. It may well rise eventually but there are never any fireworks on the day.

Sky will be the exception, if mista is close or right on the 2cps divie that would be over 11 percent yield and worth backing

[mistaTea]

Sky will be the exception, if mista is close or right on the 2cps divie that would be over 11 percent yield and worth backing

Don't forget, if Sky start a divvy after a buyback...and pay 2c/share interim and 2c/share Final...that is a total of 4c/share. If expected yield sits somewhere between 8% - 12% then it would imply a SP of 33c-50c.

[Habits]

Don't forget, if Sky start a divvy after a buyback...and pay 2c/share interim and 2c/share Final...that is a total of 4c/share. If expected yield sits somewhere between 8% - 12% then it would imply a SP of 33c-50c.

A good news story indeed... directors and ceo are inclined to retain cash imo

[iamaskier]

Don't forget, if Sky start a divvy after a buyback...and pay 2c/share interim and 2c/share Final...that is a total of 4c/share. If expected yield sits somewhere between 8% - 12% then it would imply a SP of 33c-50c.


Wouldn't we generally expect insiders to be buying up on a positive outlook like that? I don't think there's been much action on that front other than Handley (ex)? That said, I'm also not convinced on a takeover/ merger which (hypothetically) might explain lack of insider purchases. I guess all the speculation will be put to rest tmw anyway..

[mistaTea]

Wouldn't we generally expect insiders to be buying up on a positive outlook like that?

Well, management are restricted on when they can buy/sell shares.

The reintroduction (or not) of a dividend is price sensitive. I would think that they have to wait before being able to buy.

Imagine if they have known for the last month or so that they are going to reintroduce a divvy... they then go on a purchasing spree at ~17c/share. Then announce a dividend tomorrow...SP shoots up to 25c - 30c...anyone else see any issues here?

As a more general sentiment, I would prefer management to have a lot more skin in the game.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think 4c a share is way too optimistic (unless you are talking about a one off special dividend). A sustainable 2c a share annual dividend is enough to ignite a rocket under the share price though.

[iamaskier]

Well, management are restricted on when they can buy/sell shares.

The reintroduction (or not) of a dividend is price sensitive. I would think that they have to wait before being able to buy.

Imagine if they have known for the last month or so that they are going to reintroduce a divvy... they then go on a purchasing spree at ~17c/share. Then announce a dividend tomorrow...SP shoots up to 25c - 30c...anyone else see any issues here?

As a more general sentiment, I would prefer management to have a lot more skin in the game.

Yea that last point is sort of more along the lines of what I was thinking, in the sense that you'd imagine things would be looking pretty good internally for a while before a divvy/ buy back etc is lined up and insiders' trading becomes restricted. Handley bought some and Bowman a few in March and that's about it?

[mistaTea]

I think 4c a share is way too optimistic (unless you are talking about a one off special dividend). A sustainable 2c a share annual dividend is enough to ignite a rocket under the share price though.

4c/share assumes there has first been a $50M buyback that has reduced the shares outstanding to ~1.5B.

In that case 4c/share would be $60M a year. That would represent 85% of the low range of projected FCF ($70M). Not optimistic at all.

If there is no buyback first, then a total divvy of 3c/share is more realistic. 1c/share interim with a 2c/share final (if conditions allow).

[peat]

12679

are we there yet?

[jimdog31]

Me tomorrow morning

https://i.imgur.com/UxR03Ic.gif

Aren't you selling no matter what!?

[mistaTea]

Aren't you selling no matter what!?

He will possibly trim his holding back in an effort to regain his sanity.

But he will never turn his back on us...

[nztx]

He will possibly trim his holding back in an effort to regain his sanity.

But he will never turn his back on us...


Wasn't he gonna put them in the new Sky Nominees Ltd shell on incorporation ASAP ? ;)

[Habits]

are we there yet?

Yes son we are... just one more mile/minute to go

Oh no! whats that ba-dumph ba-dumph sound? Flat tyre or the soundtrack to Jaws?

[Sideshow Bob]

What's going to be the new conspiracy theory when nothing happens today??

[mistaTea]

Less than 30 mins to go.

Let’s hope Sophie doesn’t choke like Andy Murray on the third set. How do you lose from 5-0?

[Sideshow Bob]

Preso here:

Sky Box Customers Improvement in direct activations and lower churn (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/374671/349141.pdf)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ogg working on his game plan:

12680 (https://amzn.to/2LR1zjP)

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I hope you guys have already made it to the news on slide 80.

[mistaTea]

Preso here:

Sky Box Customers Improvement in direct activations and lower churn (nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com) (http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/374671/349141.pdf)

a whopping ten minutes allocated to describe the Strategy.

Wonderful.

[LEMON]

Nvm mistake

[Habits]

I hope you guys have already made it to the news on slide 80.

No not yet... I'm still searching through for the slide declaring a share buyback and followed by 4cps divies.

[DeathByWarriors]

What. A. Fizzer.

[Sideshow Bob]

No not yet... I'm still searching through for the slide declaring a share buyback and followed by 4cps divies.

Still searching for that too - at least they did say EBITDA and NPAT at upper end, if not above last guidance from 3rd February.

[jimdog31]

I hope you guys have already made it to the news on slide 80.

Oh my goodness! Brace yourself for a day of Nicholas Cage! I personally cant wait.

[mistaTea]

I am just mesmerised by Sophie’s awesome mullet.

[silu]

Oh crap:
Spark Sport has gained exclusive rights to the UEFA Champions League, UEFA Europa Leagues and UEFA Europa Conference League for the next three seasons

[jimdog31]

For those of you who are too lazy to read.

- Over the last 12 months Sky has received a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions, all of which have been highly conditional and incomplete.
- With the capital structure now stabilized, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalized strategy, the Board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company
- Sky will review strategic investment partnerships that will deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value.
- In this context the Board has appointed Jarden to review any such approaches.
- Sky's leadership team and staff maintain their absolute focus on delivering the strategy outlined today, whilst being open to exploring opportunities to accelerate further sustainable value creation for shareholders.



Key words " a number of" "unsolicited" "being open"

[LaserEyeKiwi]

For those of you who are too lazy to read.

- Over the last 12 months Sky has received a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions, all of which have been highly conditional and incomplete.
- With the capital structure now stabilized, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalized strategy, the Board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company
- Sky will review strategic investment partnerships that will deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value.
- In this context the Board has appointed Jarden to review any such approaches.
- Sky's leadership team and staff maintain their absolute focus on delivering the strategy outlined today, whilst being open to exploring opportunities to accelerate further sustainable value creation for shareholders.



Key words " a number of" "unsolicited" "being open"

I smell a hostile takeover offer brewing…

[jimdog31]

I smell a hostile takeover offer brewing…

That would imply there is substantial value in the underlying assets/business

[Habits]

For those of you who are too lazy to read.

- Over the last 12 months Sky has received a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions, all of which have been highly conditional and incomplete.
- With the capital structure now stabilized, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalized strategy, the Board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company
- Sky will review strategic investment partnerships that will deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value.
- In this context the Board has appointed Jarden to review any such approaches.
- Sky's leadership team and staff maintain their absolute focus on delivering the strategy outlined today, whilst being open to exploring opportunities to accelerate further sustainable value creation for shareholders.



Key words " a number of" "unsolicited" "being open"

Im either too lazy or too busy making some actual money lolz... btw what happened to the $50-60m sale of prime developable auckland property

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The analysts questions on the Q&A segments were utter crap. Really needed some pre-vetted retail investor questions.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

That would imply there is substantial value in the underlying assets/business

obviously…?

[jimdog31]

obviously…?

Im dumbing it down for any Newbs viewing. When you say "hostile" they may think that's a bad thing

[Habits]

For those of you who are too lazy to read.

- Over the last 12 months Sky has received a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions, all of which have been highly conditional and incomplete.
- With the capital structure now stabilized, a strong position in the NZ market, and a revitalized strategy, the Board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company
- Sky will review strategic investment partnerships that will deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value.
- In this context the Board has appointed Jarden to review any such approaches.
- Sky's leadership team and staff maintain their absolute focus on delivering the strategy outlined today, whilst being open to exploring opportunities to accelerate further sustainable value creation for shareholders.



Key words " a number of" "unsolicited" "being open"

Im either too lazy or too busy making some actual money lolz... btw what happened to the $50-60m sale of prime developable auckland property

[LEMON]

Newb here, pretty sure this what Ogg and Mista have being saying for the past year + lol

[LEMON]

That would imply there is substantial value in the underlying assets/business

..............

[jimdog31]

Newb here, pretty sure this what Ogg and Mista have being saying for the past year + lol

of course!.... The word hostile hasn't been thrown around much though. hostile or not, a takeover approach recognizes that the value of the company is lower than the market values it which should be vindication for Mista as he's been saying that for the longest time, & the fact that many parties have made approaches is vindication for the likes of OGG who has come up with more takeover theories in the last year than I thought was humanly possible.

[mistaTea]

of course!.... The word hostile hasn't been thrown around much though. hostile or not, a takeover approach recognizes that the value of the company is lower than the market values it which should be vindication for Mista as he's been saying that for the longest time, & the fact that many parties have made approaches is vindication for the likes of OGG who has come up with more takeover theories in the last year than I thought was humanly possible.

Ogg and I are both right!

Party time!

[jimdog31]

Kiltearns overhang still there as at 10.32am Volume 5,770,250 @ 17.19

[winner69]

Market says BIG YAWN

But we can live in hope .... one day something exciting might happen

[jimdog31]

Kiltearns overhang still there as at 10.32am Volume 5,770,250 @ 17.19



68
10:19:34 am
17.2
4,000,000
$688,000
Off market

[Longhaul]

It would be pretty easy for one or more of the interested parties to keep a lid on the shareprice. Retail will eventually jump in, but for now there's not enough demand to lift the price to a more realistic level.

[mistaTea]

Hmmmn. Didn’t sound like Andrew promised a 4c divvy…

[mikelee]

would another lock down possibly boost SKT's earning I wonder?

[Habits]

Market says BIG YAWN

But we can live in hope .... one day something exciting might happen

I would be better off buying fonterra units or something I know that never goes up. Rather than holding SKT and living in hope but being let down everytime.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Q: Dividend?
A: *Shrug*

[jimdog31]

I'm more intrigued not one analyst questioned the approaches.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

More mostly useless analyst questions, with the majority coming from Jarden (who is handling “transaction” opportunities - so isn’t going to ask any questions about it). All the other analysts were MIA for the most part - what is wrong with NZ analyst community? Where are they all on these sort of events? Ridiculous.

[jimdog31]

More mostly useless analyst questions, with the majority coming from Jarden (who is handling “transaction” opportunities - so isn’t going to ask any questions about it). All the other analysts were MIA for the most part - what is wrong with NZ analyst community? Where are they all on these sort of events? Ridiculous.

Sure was some useless questions. What do you make of the comments around the buildings?

[jimdog31]

"high conditional and incomplete" = needs Commerce Commission approval by X date?

[jimdog31]

What a sh*t show!

https://i.imgur.com/DFryDug.gif

The only hope is that the potential buyers read this presentation and increase their offer.

What so your NOT HAPPY theres been takeover offers?!

[mistaTea]

That was pretty much 3 hours of my life I will never get back.

There was literally no point to that presso...they have not said anything new, other than a teeny bit more info about the new STB that we didnt already know.

No wonder the analysts boycotted it. Christ that Brian Han fellow does my head in...just stupid question after stupid question.

I didn't expect Arie to ask anything about the unsolicited approaches since he is reviewing them...but neither Brian nor Han even asked about it? Amatuer.

Obviously they wouldn't have been able to answer specifically. But it would have been good to ask if these are takeover or merger discussions. Interest from local companies or overseas? Etc etc.

Amateur hour.

[DownTownJr]

I tuned into the first 30 minutes but then had to leave. Did anything interesting happen? Sounded like a bunch of fluffle in the first part and the SP looks... Well.

[Count von Count]

Share price has not crashed... (yet). In fact, almost increased some!

[winner69]

More mostly useless analyst questions, with the majority coming from Jarden (who is handling “transaction” opportunities - so isn’t going to ask any questions about it). All the other analysts were MIA for the most part - what is wrong with NZ analyst community? Where are they all on these sort of events? Ridiculous.

Maybe a $300m company isn’t worth the effort

[jimdog31]

I tuned into the first 30 minutes but then had to leave. Did anything interesting happen? Sounded like a bunch of fluffle in the first part and the SP looks... Well.

I learnt

1) Approaches have been made
2) Dividends are uncertain.
3) the Board feels approaches at 1) are undervalued

as a result of 1) & 2), the board at 3) needs to be more realistic and that 1) will eventually happen

[jimdog31]

Based on how many pointed questions Ari from Jarden asked - i believe Jarden will be saying take an offer as we aren't sure of your plan.

[moimoi]

https://i.imgur.com/pt4PDiu.gif

We wondered what you were using all those recently registered shell companies for......

[LEMON]

Listened to the first 1hour and heard nothing but sugar coating. Knew where that was going from previous shareholder talks

Most of us can agree something positive is going to happen, just how much longer

[mistaTea]

I learnt

1) Approaches have been made
2) Dividends are uncertain.
3) the Board feels approaches at 1) are undervalued

as a result of 1) & 2), the board at 3) needs to be more realistic and that 1) will eventually happen


I don't know what these parties have been offering for Sky...and whether they are mergers or takeovers...

I agree wholeheartedly that the SP undervalues Sky significantly, but if The Board are wearing rose-tinted glasses someone is eventually going to get fed up and go in hostile.

Let's see what (if anything) comes of the review that Arie will do.

He seemed a lot friendlier to management, and even effusive on some of his comments about progress in key areas. Funny that, now that Arie stands to make bank on any sale (of which he will want the highest possible sale price to maximise his commission) he seems a lot more chipper with Sky.

[Baa_Baa]

What's this "for the next 2-3 years" EDITDA reduction about?

12683

[mistaTea]

What's this "for the next 2-3 years" EDITDA reduction about?

12683

No clawbacks in FY22, plus higher content costs and CAPEX going up to 9% of revenue for a few years.

Will naturally put pressure on EBITDA.

Underlying Owner Earnings will still be healthy, but FCF takes a hit.

[mistaTea]

No questions about a potential buyback.

I reckon ogg is dumping his stock right now.

That presso disappointed me, but I bet it would have REALLY chapped his ass.

[jimdog31]

There is not enough on market liquidity for me to bail!

I'm surprised you haven't hanged yourself after that presentation.

It's obvious now that a takeover or merger is the only way forward.

The fact that they have appointed Jarden is an obvious signal that one will happen soon. But you can forget 30c a share!!! 20-25c seems more reasonable after reading today's outlook.

I agree with 20-25c - Its Just up to old mate Arie to make the board realise this.

Not enough market liquidity? 9.8 million shares traded - how many share you got bro?!

[mistaTea]

I'm surprised you haven't hanged yourself after that presentation.


Most b@stards would have said 'hung'.

You got it right with 'hanged' and I just bloody love you for it mate!

[jimdog31]

Bit more on market activity now as I type.

I don't know what to do. I want out but not on market and not at these prices!

I'll be happy with a 20c takeover with the option of other parties making a bid while ComCom approval is sort.


Someone is still taking Kiltearn's shares off them.



12:19:56 pm
12:21:02 pm
16.8
2,516,857
0.2
$422,831
9

[mistaTea]

I'll be happy with a 20c takeover with the option of other parties making a bid while ComCom approval is sort.

You are panicking mate. Be calm. Breath.

It is BAU until Arie can work with the interested parties to get the best possible deal.

If there are potentially multiple parties that could make a binding offer, why would shareholders want 20c?

I think Sky will probably end up going for 30c/share.

A damn shame really to see the business go for only 75% of revenue, but the market has basically forced this outcome by rating Sky so low for so long despite the obvious progress and traction they are making in key areas.

Sigh.

[Monarch]

Really disappointing presentation. No real numbers of value on broadband's performance, must not be very successful so far. Couldn't even give a vague number for the property sale and no commitment to dividends etc in their strategic targets. Especially concerning was the "significant reduction in FCF" going forward. Not happy.

[Sideshow Bob]

If the Board think the share price under values the company, then a buyback would be a good place to start. Then on top of that resumption of dividends.....that would get investors interested.

Maybe just have to hang in there until early September and their result and what they are going to do with their FCF.

Personally I skimmed through the preso this morning, thought "Meeehhhhhh" and that wasn't going to waste 3 hrs.

[jimdog31]

Lol at the neg reactions, as shareholders can we really lose? Price goes down, takeover more likely to happen. Price goes up, well price goes up.

I'm more worried it stays in the same spot.

[jimdog31]

I'm raging hard!

https://i.imgur.com/G4UJFFF.gif

The fact that there are buyers out there wanting to do a deal but then you have Sky's management going on about how it's undervalued and then doing this sh*t arse presentation is a complete fu*king joke.

The buyers can now buy Sky on market even cheaper.

Seriously, a takeover needs to happen now at any price. Just get a fu*king auction going!! The buyers will increase their bids as other buyers are flushed out!

No more investor presentation!

At least this way they've let all potential parties know there's more than one interested party?

[jimdog31]

More upbeat article

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125593905/more-optimistic-sky-tv-hopes-new-settop-box-will-help-it-return-to-growth

Again, both this article and the heralds article no mention of the fact an Adviser has been appointed to advise on transactions as per Takeover Protocol B. Isn't that bigger news than the set top box?

1.4 The Board will:
(a) Treat all discussions and correspondence confidentially.
(b) Contact the Company's lawyers to seek advice on confidentiality and continuousdisclosure obligations regarding the incomplete proposal.
(c) Call a Board meeting at which the Board will:

(vi) consider appointing a financial adviser to advise it on the proposal; and

If i were OGG i'd be posting the John travolta confused meme.

[freebee]

Again, both this article and the heralds article no mention of the fact an Adviser has been appointed to advise on transactions as per Takeover Protocol B. Isn't that bigger news than the set top box?

1.4 The Board will:
(a) Treat all discussions and correspondence confidentially.
(b) Contact the Company's lawyers to seek advice on confidentiality and continuousdisclosure obligations regarding the incomplete proposal.
(c) Call a Board meeting at which the Board will:

(vi) consider appointing a financial adviser to advise it on the proposal; and

If i were OGG i'd be posting the John travolta confused meme.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125593905/sky-tv-takeover-company-appoints-adviser-after-unsolicited-approaches

[jimdog31]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125593905/sky-tv-takeover-company-appoints-adviser-after-unsolicited-approaches

Thanks, I did wonder why the other articles made no mention. How weird is it that journalists asked about this after the presentation but none of the analysts bothered to ask? Prime opportunity to grill them like the below question;

"Asked whether the approaches had included any full takeover offers for Sky, chief executive Sophie Moloney said there were “a range of talks on the table”."

and

"Moloney wouldn’t comment directly on whether any of the approaches Sky had received to date were under active consideration but said it was expecting some of them would be “ongoing”."

[JohnnyTheHorse]

My impression is that Sky has not been interested in seriously trying to progress proposals further until they had this strategy in place and signed off by the board. It wouldn't make sense for them to unless they had a very compelling offer. Whether people are interested in a full takeover or a merger remains to be seen. It's game on though.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125593905/sky-tv-takeover-company-appoints-adviser-after-unsolicited-approaches

thanks for the link!!! New comments from Sophie in that article, made after the investor meeting:


Sky TV has received “unsolicited approaches” from would-be investors and has appointed investment banker Jarden to advise it on any future discussions, the company’s chairman Philip Bowman says.“We have confirmed today that Sky will evaluate strategic investment partnerships that deliver sustained ongoing growth to the rights content and distribution reach of the company, which in turn will accelerate the creation of shareholder value,” he said.
Asked whether the approaches had included any full takeover offers for Sky, chief executive Sophie Moloney said there were “a range of talks on the table”.

“That is why the board has determined along with me, that appointing Jarden at this time is absolutely the right thing to do,” she said, commenting after a presentation to analysts on Tuesday morning.



Jarden’s role would be ongoing rather than fixed-term, she said

Moloney wouldn’t comment directly on whether any of the approaches Sky had received to date were under active consideration but said it was expecting some of them would be “ongoing”. (https://advertise.stuff.co.nz/)

“For our side, we have got a strategy and we are going to be cracking on delivering it,” she said.




(https://www.stuff.co.nz/authors/tom-pullar-strecker)
Moloney said that as chief executive she would be interested in partnerships that drove more value for the company’s shareholders. (tom.pullar-strecker@stuff.co.nz)


“There has been industry consolidation but any partner that is going to help us be better at what we do already whether it is from a content or a tech perspective will obviously be of interest,” she said.

apologies tor the crap formatting

[jimdog31]

The Fact that they have appointed Jarden "ongoing" means they are resigned to the fact its going to happen and there strategy is really about getting the best value.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

One tidbit from the presentation was that broadband was expected to be loss making for a couple of years, which fits with my initial expectations that the initial setup costs for each new subscriber take a while to recoup. It was mentioned as a quick throwaway comment at the end of the broadband section, can’t remember exact line but something akin to “will not be EBITDA accretive for a couple of years”.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

No doubt, especially after that woeful performance this morning. Management have absolutely no credibility left. Hopefully Jarden can clean up this mess!

but what about the NFTS?!

I laughed out loud when I saw that (they kept referring to NBA top shot as an example of a successful NFT for sports collectibles - without mentioning that NBA topshot sort of has faulted a bit recently). I will say though it’s genius buzzword product to hook those leagues they are in negotiations with like the NRL with the promise of lucrative high margin ancillary revenue additions (whether they eventuate or not).

[nztx]

Holy Kapoly -- No Debt, Cashed up (and in Ogg's eyes probably crashed up on today's performance ;) )
making dough too .. ;)

Financial Spinmeisters on a hefty retainer appointed too now

Got to be a buck to be made somewhere here, if the piranhas are circling already .. ;)

but would Ogg really sell up fully in face of all this ? ;)

[nztx]

Drum is beating hard!


https://i.imgur.com/ODtBGKf.jpg



Not worth unloading the truck just yet ?


we knew it .. ;)

[Habits]

This thread is the funniest of all... seriously funny if there is such a thing. Owning sky shares keeps me interested in the comments so I might just hang on as a shareholder until sky goes down the plug hole...

[nztx]

This thread is the funniest of all... seriously funny if there is such a thing. Owning sky shares keeps me interested in the comments so I might just hang on as a shareholder until sky goes down the plug hole...



Better not distract Ogg too much .. or he might just miss the right moment .. ;)

[nztx]

Double post removed ..


wouldn't want to confuse anyone .. otherwise they may try to sell a boatload twice .. ;)

[winner69]

This thread is the funniest of all... seriously funny if there is such a thing. Owning sky shares keeps me interested in the comments so I might just hang on as a shareholder until sky goes down the plug hole...

I wouldn't even call it funny ...... don't even see this much rubbish up at the landfill

[nztx]

I wouldn't even call it funny ...... don't even see this much rubbish up at the landfill



But Ogg assures us all that there's no Fake News in here .. ;)

[nztx]

Management's plan was to obviously do this investor presentation and get the stock back up above 20c but it's failed miserably!

The market obviously doesn't agree with their valuation.

Little faith in their long term plan either.

Takeover now the only viable option.

Get the bidders all in the same room together and get this puppy on the block ASAP!




Time to back up the truck again ? ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

This thread is the funniest of all... seriously funny if there is such a thing. Owning sky shares keeps me interested in the comments so I might just hang on as a shareholder until sky goes down the plug hole...

Entertainment value in SKT isn't subscribing and watching TV - its owning a few shares and reading this thread! ;)

[freebee]

Excuse my ignorance but what are the rules around Sky having to announce to shareholders any takeover offer?

[nztx]

I think Mista has offed himself.

Dividend team obliterated!

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif


Still lots of dough in kitty

how will the Buyback team fare ? ;)

or will a not so small share consolidation do them over ? ;)

[silu]

Even The Australian is reporting (behind Paywall) https://www.theaustralian.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=TAWEB_WRE170_a_TWT&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theaustralian.com.au%2Fbusi ness%2Fdataroom%2Fsky-nz-hires-jarden-for-strategic-review-following-buyer-interest%2Fnews-story%2Fad9c2b53b271b1384461999f433b2601&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium

Bridget Carter says that Discovery would be the logical party to take over.

Breath Easy Ogg

[sb9]

Just catching up on all fun and frustration on this thread from this morning. Looks like something's is definitely brewing in the background.

Kiltearn should almost be finished up their holdings going by the volume so far today, if its them selling. If that overhang is cleared, 20c in the near term isn't too far to crack imo.

[winner69]

Never has a truer word been said by NZ Herald - "Some pundits interpreted Sky's statements as implying a possible takeover was in the offing."

Take a sentence from here and a sentence from there and toss in a few extra words and let the imagination run wild….and you’ll generally get the answer you want

[sb9]

Bots trying hard keep price under 17c mark, be interesting to watch day's 15min pre-close action.

[silu]

Never has a truer word been said by NZ Herald - "Some pundits interpreted Sky's statements as implying a possible takeover was in the offing."

Take a sentence from here and a sentence from there and toss in a few extra words and let the imagination run wild….and you’ll generally get the answer you want

The whole investor presentation should have been named "we are single and ready to mingle".

[mayday]

Personally I think Sky is on the right track following some latest releases - broadband, Disney, Sky Sport App etc. May be not there yet, still worth paying some attention. Sentiment: buy

[nztx]

Personally I think Sky is on the right track following some latest releases - broadband, Disney, Sky Sport App etc. May be not there yet, still worth paying some attention. Sentiment: buy


maybe .. but how long is a piece of string ? ;)

never mind - Ogg will keep us all entertained .. ;)

[nztx]

Volume traded was fairly solid:


Volume 12,501,829


someone stacking SKT for a rainy day ? ;)

[nztx]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-reports-unsolicited-approaches-appoints-jarden-as-adviser/VVT2LFAV6T5HETYX2DSUMT7Q3U/

A piece published in The Australian's market gossip column this afternoon, says "DataRoom understands that the interest has come from local private equity groups as well as global strategic parties."

It goes on to speculate that Discovery (the new owner of MediaWorks' television operation), US company Comcast (which bought Sky UK and is understood to have approached Sky NZ 18 months ago), NBCUniversal or a telco would be logical buyers.



20.0 cents by tomorrow close - you reckon ? ;)

[nztx]

Oh look at that:

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/skt


High Bid $0.173
Low Offer $0.168

20 Min delayed

it could all be on .. over on ASX .. ;)

[sb9]

17.1
2,000,000
17:10
SP



More crossed after close...could be fascinating how next few days unfold.

[jimdog31]

Now that the Journalists have done the analysts jobs for them!!!! What a bunch of twits.


What a wasted opportunity when they were on camera to really grill them about approaches, their body language and the responses (even deferrals of questions) would have given us more indication of where things were at.

But no the morningstar guy just wanted to point out how difficult it is to have a strategy these days.

[RGR367]

Gut feel says this is when the sp should really start rising. I could have realized my paper profit a bit today but I'll rather wait a bit longer now. Thanks for Egg and MrTea for keeping me especially interested on this crazy thread :D

[mistaTea]

Now that the Journalists have done the analysts jobs for them!!!! What a bunch of twits.


What a wasted opportunity when they were on camera to really grill them about approaches, their body language and the responses (even deferrals of questions) would have given us more indication of where things were at.

But no the morningstar guy just wanted to point out how difficult it is to have a strategy these days.

Yeah Brian Han more worried about whether sky will break out their broadband numbers separately.

Christ Brian, seriously? That’s all you got?

You could absolutely tell that Bowman was expecting a grilling on takeover/merger possibilities. He would have breathed a sigh of relief and probably still can’t believe he got to sit on the couch and just say “nothing to add”.

At least the journos have run with the story.

Vocus need to stop low balling and get serious. If they lose this deal and someone else buys sky they are going to regret it big time. Vocus need sky just as much as sky need them.

Let’s hope common sense prevails.

[jimdog31]

Yeah Brian Han more worried about whether sky will break out their broadband numbers separately.

Christ Brian, seriously? That’s all you got?

You could absolutely tell that Bowman was expecting a grilling on takeover/merger possibilities. He would have breathed a sigh of relief and probably still can’t believe he got to sit on the couch and just say “nothing to add”.

At least the journos have run with the story.

Vocus need to stop low balling and get serious. If they lose this deal and someone else buys sky they are going to regret it big time. Vocus need sky just as much as sky need them.

Let’s hope common sense prevails.

I'm gobsmacked aye. like any of the cr*py details they were talking about matter if a deal or transaction is on the table.

Id have asked

"my question is for Phil, Phil, Sophie literally just spoke word for word what you guys wrote on Slide 80, given you can't guarantee when dividends are going to resume, and you a have put this day on to install investor confidence in Sky, can you please share with us why the board does not believe the current share price reflects the underlying value of the company"

[jimdog31]

Server probs .......

[Alpha]

Read the preso so glad i did not waste my time watching it. Sounds like it was average as. Maybe they know there's no point as one of these unsolicited offers is actually likely to play out and they are just as over it so are going to just throw the towel in.

I prey if this happens we get something worthwhile. Otherwise I think we are doomed.

[Habits]

Arie Dekker was on with Heather after 630pm. Did not say much... I think the best thing sky have going is their rugby and league deals which are keeping spark at bay.

[jimdog31]

Ogg, are you currently just going through all the “congratulations your not actually crazy” messages?

honestly thought you would be riding this one in to town mate �� and I wouldnt blame you!

Now that people can actually consider a “transaction” as a possibility, what are the collective thoughts on what the “highly conditionals” would be?

initiate new takeover protocols
move overpaid ceo on? tick
and his sidekick? tick
sale of osb? tick
getting rid of handley? tick
launching broadband? tick
retain Nrl to 2027? tick
push investor date in case buildings have sold? tick (oops)

appointing IR man? tick
appointing jarden to manage process? tick
distracting analysts with talk of NFT’s? tick

getting value up? (attract a few more bidders) ? tick
not paying dividend so its a more cash juicy takeover proposition? tick

whats left?

comcom approval?
sale of buildings?

Any other “conditions” you guys can think of?

[Habits]

"not paying dividend so its a more cash juicy takeover proposition? tick"

A lack of divvie keeps the share price shackled... as mista pointed out a 4c div could have lifted the SP to ceiling

[jimdog31]

"not paying dividend so its a more cash juicy takeover proposition? tick"

A lack of divvie keeps the share price shackled... as mista pointed out a 4c div could have lifted the SP to ceiling

and in lifting the price to the ceiling they completly scare the lowball offers away.....

[jimdog31]

"not paying dividend so its a more cash juicy takeover proposition? tick"

A lack of divvie keeps the share price shackled... as mista pointed out a 4c div could have lifted the SP to ceiling

that particular “condition” was a little tongue in cheek.

[moimoi]

So..

-no buyback
-no 4c Divi (and unlikely any Divi given forecasted increased programming costs, "Growth" initiatives, payouts (redundancies) to "achieve further cost savings".
-no takeover interest worth continuous disclosure to the market
-no numbers on broadband uptake (yawn)
-no numbers on the kitty litter graveyard that is RugbyPass

Plenty of "engagement", "enablement", "affinity", "identification" and "stimulation"

GLTA.

[nztx]

Weren't there some old vans / trucks parked up somewhere - or did they get sent to the scrapyard
just before the new CEO came on board ? ;)

Perhaps some were given away to departing execs as part of a termination package, so they could be re-purposed for
Retiring Exec's Housetrucks - if they wished for a new lifestyle ? ;)

[Habits]

and in lifting the price to the ceiling they completly scare the lowball offers away.....

Lowball offers are never that serious... either venture capitalists or private equity looking for a fast buck on a fast turn around. Give me a tax paid dividend yield with imputation credits any day

[Habits]

Lowball offers are never that serious... either venture capitalists or private equity looking for a fast buck on a fast turn around. Give me a tax paid dividend yield with imputation credits any day

Just listened to Andrew Kelleher and Mike talking sky ... the new STB will be a winner. Also reiterated that "the board do not believe the current shareprice reflects true company value". So why not do a TRA ... set a pathway to $x, keeping shareholders regularly informed, PAY quarterly divies. Value will be restored!

[Habits]

Lowball offers are never that serious... either venture capitalists or private equity looking for a fast buck on a fast turn around. Give me a tax paid dividend yield with imputation credits any day

Just listened to Andrew Kelleher and Mike talking sky ... the new STB will be a winner. Also reiterated that "the board do not believe the current shareprice reflects true company value". So why not do a TRA ... set a pathway to $x, keeping shareholders regularly informed, PAY quarterly divies. Value will be restored!

[Entrep]

"the board do not believe the current shareprice reflects true company value".

Stewart said that around 80c if I recall correctly

[mistaTea]

Stewart said that around 80c if I recall correctly

Yeah but that was before the CR

[RTM]

Yeah but that was before the CR

What did the math say the cash price would be after the CR Mista Tea...was it around 17c ? Can't recall.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

More NBR coverage, basically just discussing The Australian article: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/private-equity-comcast-tipped-sky-tv-suitors

With all the media coverage yesterday I added a substantial trading position to sit alongside my long term hold. Expecting fireworks today.

[RTM]

TERP was 17.2

Thanks...so right around where we are at now.

[mistaTea]

Comcast said to be behind unsolicited approach

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/private-equity-comcast-tipped-sky-tv-suitors

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU

All my hard work over the last year finally vindicated.

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

They are going to go hostile if they feel a bargain is to be had and the board are being unreasonable.

Maybe create your countdown timer Ogg. T-minus how long until hostile takeover?

If I were Comcast, Discovery, Spark etc...I would negotiate with the big shareholders to sell 19.99% of the shares at $x/share (with a clause that if the bid for the rest of the company is increased then they will be paid the difference). That would put them in an enormously strong position.

You still want The Board on board ideally, as these deals are just better when they are friendly.

But if any of these guys are really keen they aren't just going to walk away because The Board isn't enthusiastic right now. Not when there is a lot of money to be made.

I mean, Comcast or Discovery have got to be the most likely as they would both benefit hugely in different ways.

Spark is also likely though for both growth and defensive reasons. Growth because they would increase their dominance as largest telco (though to get comcom approval they would need to show genuine standardised wholesale offers for content). But also defensive...the last thing Spark wants is for a Big D1ck Player with infinitely deep pockets to come in and buy Sky.

That would definitely be game over for Spark Sport, plus Sky will inevitably offer more telco services which would be a major threat to Spark.

A lot to be excited about Ogg!

[freebee]

More NBR coverage, basically just discussing The Australian article: https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/private-equity-comcast-tipped-sky-tv-suitors

With all the media coverage yesterday I added a substantial trading position to sit alongside my long term hold. Expecting fireworks today.

i did the same, thinking i did well getting a decent parcel at 16.8 with all this takeover talk going on but time will tell.
Now just need one of these journalists to say that one of the (conditional)offers was 25c and away we go!

[RTM]

Divi and Buybacks...they would have only been discussing those if there was no take-over on the near horizon.
Just a matter of time.

[RTM]

Divi and Buybacks...they would have only been discussing those if there was no take-over on the near horizon.
Just a matter of time.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I don't think it's a reasonable assumption to make that the board is or will be unreasonable with respect to offers. ACC has shown multiple times they are open to lock up agreements at the right price if that was required.

As I previously mentioned, I think there's a good chance the board wasn't interested in seriously progressing anything until their strategy was set. They likely wouldn't allow full due diligence until this strategy was public, meaning no offer would get to a progressed stage. With Jarden engaged the game becomes how do they maximise shareholder value. The first step is the advice to make it public that they have talked to multiple parties. Now it's just a waiting game.

[mistaTea]

I don't think it's a reasonable assumption to make that the board is or will be unreasonable with respect to offers. ACC has shown multiple times they are open to lock up agreements at the right price if that was required.


I don't think The Board are being unreasonable at all... especially if there are multiple interested parties offering various transaction possibilities. The Board have a duty to shareholders not to just jump at 'any old offer' that happens to be x% above the current SP.

If a deal is to be done they need to make sure it is in the best interest of shareholders (maximises value), is likely to result in a binding offer and is likely to gain approval from the regulators.

Hiring Jarden to provide expert advice on how to proceed is a logical path forward.

My earlier comment was more in relation to whether or not any of the suitors perceive that The Board are being unreasonable, in which case it is possible that someone could take a more hostile route. I think they generally try to avoid this though, and would more likely spend more time negotiating with the Board to get a deal to something that they can recommend to shareholders.

I definitely think Spark are having more than a sniff too. As I say, they would not be thrilled if a major player like Comcast or Discovery took ownership of Sky. That would absolutely make Spark worth less money as Sky got their hands on more money to transform into other services more rapidly/aggressively.

If I were Spark I would quit d1cking around with cheeky offers and try and get Sky off the table ASAP. Provided they have a concrete plan for wholesale content deals, I doubt Comcom would have an issue.

Vocus would not be happy though - they can kiss their wholesale deal with Sky goodbye if Spark buy Sky.

[jimdog31]

They are going to go hostile if they feel a bargain is to be had and the board are being unreasonable.

Maybe create your countdown timer Ogg. T-minus how long until hostile takeover?

If I were Comcast, Discovery, Spark etc...I would negotiate with the big shareholders to sell 19.99% of the shares at $x/share (with a clause that if the bid for the rest of the company is increased then they will be paid the difference). That would put them in an enormously strong position.

You still want The Board on board ideally, as these deals are just better when they are friendly.

But if any of these guys are really keen they aren't just going to walk away because The Board isn't enthusiastic right now. Not when there is a lot of money to be made.

I mean, Comcast or Discovery have got to be the most likely as they would both benefit hugely in different ways.

Spark is also likely though for both growth and defensive reasons. Growth because they would increase their dominance as largest telco (though to get comcom approval they would need to show genuine standardised wholesale offers for content). But also defensive...the last thing Spark wants is for a Big D1ck Player with infinitely deep pockets to come in and buy Sky.

That would definitely be game over for Spark Sport, plus Sky will inevitably offer more telco services which would be a major threat to Spark.

A lot to be excited about Ogg!

So, the latest substantial holder FMR LLC - is there a tie up there to Discovery or Comcast? or completely unrelated?

[mistaTea]

So, the latest substantial holder FMR LLC - is there a tie up there to Discovery or Comcast? or completely unrelated?

Dunno mate, but I bet Ogg has been fapping all night and morning since Slide 80 was published.

[jimdog31]

Dunno mate, but I bet Ogg has been fapping all night and morning since Slide 80 was published.

Please dont post a meme that simulates the above !!

[winner69]

Did you guys get any sleep last night after all the speculation overdose of yesterday

Keep dreaming guys

Even Arborgen us trying to get interested parties to actually see the value in their company

[mistaTea]

Legit

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Shares starting strong.

[glennj]

I don't think The Board are being unreasonable at all... especially if there are multiple interested parties offering various transaction possibilities. The Board have a duty to shareholders not to just jump at 'any old offer' that happens to be x% above the current SP.

If a deal is to be done they need to make sure it is in the best interest of shareholders (maximises value), is likely to result in a binding offer and is likely to gain approval from the regulators.

Hiring Jarden to provide expert advice on how to proceed is a logical path forward.

My earlier comment was more in relation to whether or not any of the suitors perceive that The Board are being unreasonable, in which case it is possible that someone could take a more hostile route. I think they generally try to avoid this though, and would more likely spend more time negotiating with the Board to get a deal to something that they can recommend to shareholders.

I definitely think Spark are having more than a sniff too. As I say, they would not be thrilled if a major player like Comcast or Discovery took ownership of Sky. That would absolutely make Spark worth less money as Sky got their hands on more money to transform into other services more rapidly/aggressively.

If I were Spark I would quit d1cking around with cheeky offers and try and get Sky off the table ASAP. Provided they have a concrete plan for wholesale content deals, I doubt Comcom would have an issue.

Vocus would not be happy though - they can kiss their wholesale deal with Sky goodbye if Spark buy Sky.


I'd be happy to see Spark take out Sky! I'm not a holder of either but am a customer of both. Sky could do with a rark up and selfishly I'd like to be able to access both the cricket and rugby again from just the one provider.

[mistaTea]

Sky could do with a rark up and selfishly I'd like to be able to access both the cricket and rugby again from just the one provider.

I think a lot of people feel this way. Now that UEFA will be on Spark, but Sky keep netball, NRL and rugby...the problem is becoming worse for consumers.

Better to have the content in one place. And let's face it - Spark make way better apps and tech than Sky. The only reason NEON is so good now is because it is Lightbox with a different colour scheme.

[mistaTea]

No, the ComCom says you have to pay more

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif


LOL, yeah the Comcom exist to ensure consumers are unprotected.

Christ, if Spark did emerge as a preferred bidder...how filthy would Vodafone feel?

[winner69]

https://i.imgur.com/GLpNpgy.gif

Nice image OGG but I don’t get the hidden message …..but I suppose it’s not nice

……..mistatea did once say I wasn’t the sharpest pencil in the pencil case - so not surprising I just don’t get it.

[jimdog31]

OGG stop selling your shares!!! its suppressing the rocket!

[jimdog31]

I said I would sell if a takeover happened or if a takeover didn't happen.

Now we have a situation were a takeover appears to be happening, ie it's somewhere in between.

Until there's certainty either way, I will hold regardless of the stock price.

Love it. sell side looking extremely thin for the first time in awhile!

[Baa_Baa]

12690

Moaning Star 29 June re-rates to $0.30

[jimdog31]

12690

Moaning Star 29 June re-rates to $0.30

I take back all the bad stuff about Brian Han! What was it before baa baa?

[mistaTea]

I take back all the bad stuff about Brian Han! What was it before baa baa?

It has been 30c for ages.

[jimdog31]

If Sky comes out and says something like, "We evaluated all the options and no deal has progressed so therefore we have terminated Jarden services", or something alone the lines of that, then I'll sell and I'll dump all my stock instantly regardless of the losses.

In the meantime I might add more on any pull back. Today's price action is just the Sharesies bot spasing out again.

The likelihood of that happening is almost zero, given sophie said their appointment is "ongoing". That's a pretty strong signal to me that they are committed to a "transaction", period.

[Baa_Baa]

I take back all the bad stuff about Brian Han! What was it before baa baa?

Here's their words:

Recommendation impact (last updated: 29/06/2021)--
Event analysisRevenue Reaching for the Sky but Earnings to Remain Grounded
Sky's three-year financial targets to fiscal 2024, if achieved, would present upside to our already positive intrinsic assessment. The goal of stabilising satellite revenue during the period is a year or two ahead of our thinking, the 15% to 25% CAGR aspiration for streaming revenue exceeds our current 12% forecast, and the broadband initiative (not in our model yet) could add NZD 90 million to the top line by fiscal 2024. The result is a potential revenue base of NZD 800 million in fiscal 2024 versus our current NZD 600 million forecast.

Unfortunately, the bright revenue picture is blurred by an uncertain outlook for costs snapping back from COVID-19-related rights relief, and investments needed to execute the strategic plan. EBITDA is projected to fall for two to three years from management's projected NZD 180 million-plus in fiscal 2021. The trajectory is in line with our current expectation, but the key mystery is where Sky's fiscal 2024 EBITDA will end up relative to our NZD 110 million forecast.

As an illustration, the current guidance for fiscal 2021 implies second-half EBITDA of NZD 66 million, or roughly NZD 130 million annualised. Our current fiscal 2024 EBITDA forecast of NZD 110 million would then equate to an average decline of 16% from fiscal 2021. If proven to be on the mark, it would imply profitless growth from all the revenue/broadband initiatives, or that they are essential investments in adjunct services just to stabilise overall subscribers and earnings.

We leave our forecasts largely intact. It may be tempting to blindly input management's financial targets into the model, but details from the investor day warrant a longer deliberation. In any case, our unchanged NZD 0.30 fair value estimate (AUD 0.28 at current exchange rates) already implies material upside from Sky's current stock price. And the no-moat-rated group has attracted "a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions" over the past year according to management.

[jimdog31]

Here's their words:

Recommendation impact (last updated: 29/06/2021)

--
Event analysis

Revenue Reaching for the Sky but Earnings to Remain Grounded
Sky's three-year financial targets to fiscal 2024, if achieved, would present upside to our already positive intrinsic assessment. The goal of stabilising satellite revenue during the period is a year or two ahead of our thinking, the 15% to 25% CAGR aspiration for streaming revenue exceeds our current 12% forecast, and the broadband initiative (not in our model yet) could add NZD 90 million to the top line by fiscal 2024. The result is a potential revenue base of NZD 800 million in fiscal 2024 versus our current NZD 600 million forecast.

Unfortunately, the bright revenue picture is blurred by an uncertain outlook for costs snapping back from COVID-19-related rights relief, and investments needed to execute the strategic plan. EBITDA is projected to fall for two to three years from management's projected NZD 180 million-plus in fiscal 2021. The trajectory is in line with our current expectation, but the key mystery is where Sky's fiscal 2024 EBITDA will end up relative to our NZD 110 million forecast.

As an illustration, the current guidance for fiscal 2021 implies second-half EBITDA of NZD 66 million, or roughly NZD 130 million annualised. Our current fiscal 2024 EBITDA forecast of NZD 110 million would then equate to an average decline of 16% from fiscal 2021. If proven to be on the mark, it would imply profitless growth from all the revenue/broadband initiatives, or that they are essential investments in adjunct services just to stabilise overall subscribers and earnings.

We leave our forecasts largely intact. It may be tempting to blindly input management's financial targets into the model, but details from the investor day warrant a longer deliberation. In any case, our unchanged NZD 0.30 fair value estimate (AUD 0.28 at current exchange rates) already implies material upside from Sky's current stock price. And the no-moat-rated group has attracted "a number of unsolicited approaches around potential transactions" over the past year according to management.

I take it back. hes still a twat. Still more worried about the bloody broadband numbers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

This Pig has been fattened enough - time to take it to market

12692

[jimdog31]

HOLEY!!

8,000,000 17.6 SP 1.36pm

[uravgtrader]

Handley's dumping!

[winner69]

Jeez …just over 1% of the company traded today

Somethings up

[winner69]

Our Sophie might ‘have got pay-TV and media in my blood.’ but when it comes to extracting ‘value out of and undervalued company’ she’s out of her depth ….and being backed a pretty weak board doesn’t help

All you can take out of that slide 80 was that they have put up the white flag and pleading for some one to put them out of their misery. Talk of unsolicited offers was just that (like nothing serious) and was basically saying here we are and we are for sale.

Hope private equity gives us a ‘fair price’ but that’s not likely

[Habits]

Our Sophie might ‘have got pay-TV and media in my blood.’ but when it comes to extracting ‘value out of and undervalued company’ she’s out of her depth ….and being backed a pretty weak board doesn’t help

All you can take out of that slide 80 was that they have put up the white flag and pleading for some one to put them out of their misery. Talk of unsolicited offers was just that (like nothing serious) and was basically saying here we are and we are for sale.

Hope private equity gives us a ‘fair price’ but that’s not likely

You got that nail squarely W69. However sellers dont need to do anything to extract best price for their asset except ensure there is more than one buyer and let them fight

[Sideshow Bob]

You got that nail squarely W69. However sellers dont need to do anything to extract best price for their asset except ensure there is more than one buyer and let them fight

And also have a good hired gun fighting for them in their corner……

[winner69]

And also have a good hired gun fighting for them in their corner……

Tout it around private equity …..get a reasonable price ….new owners allow Sophie to get on with the job without the critical eyes of the market watching every move …..SKY makes heaps …..and then refloated in a few years as a 2 billion dollar company.

[winner69]

In the media - Forsyth Barr analyst Aaron Ibbotson said he didn’t interpret Sky’s comments to mean there was anything concrete on the table. “It didn’t sound extremely serious to me in the sense that anything was imminent or that they were in discussions that had firmed up, but you never know.

Presentation had quite a few ‘stories’ in it eh

[jimdog31]

In the media - Forsyth Barr analyst Aaron Ibbotson said he didn’t interpret Sky’s comments to mean there was anything concrete on the table. “It didn’t sound extremely serious to me in the sense that anything was imminent or that they were in discussions that had firmed up, but you never know.

Presentation had quite a few ‘stories’ in it eh

Mate, if u hadnt been in exile youd have kept up with all the other indicators going on.

[winner69]

Mate, if u hadnt been in exile youd have kept up with all the other indicators going on.

……what ‘indicators’ …hope you not referring to some of the crap on this thread over the last few months :scared:

[LEMON]

……what ‘indicators’ …hope you not referring to some of the crap on this thread over the last few months :scared:

That crap you speak of seems to be provided as a matter of fact in slide 80 no?

[jimdog31]

That crap you speak of seems to be provided as a matter of fact in slide 80 no?

No winner prefers to call facts "stories". Winner be trolling since '69. Pay him no heed hes harmless. No worries

[winner69]

If a takeover was to happen soon I'd accept 25 cents ....maybe even 22 cents

[jimdog31]

If a takeover was to happen soon I'd accept 25 cents ....maybe even 22 cents

I think we can all agree on this price range. Hope Arie is reading.

[mikelee]

I'd be happy to take anything north of 50 cents :t_up:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If a takeover was to happen soon I'd accept 25 cents ....maybe even 22 cents

Jeez that wouldn't be good for those who bought >$3. Hopefully they been averaging down.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vocus-sale-finalised-and-with-ink-barely-dry-fresh-nz-ipo-talk-emerges/HHIJI57GKOZALAP7JSN5P3FHHQ/

Vocus merger with Sky still the best way to realise long-term value for both businesses.

[jimdog31]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vocus-sale-finalised-and-with-ink-barely-dry-fresh-nz-ipo-talk-emerges/HHIJI57GKOZALAP7JSN5P3FHHQ/

Vocus merger with Sky still the best way to realise long-term value for both businesses.

In November last year, Vocus Group hired Goldman Sachs, Jarden and Craigs Investment Partners to kick the tyres for a possible NZX listing of Vocus' NZ assets

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/lRUegyO.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gYv4jqF.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/StQO9QF.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GZgDsHF.jpg


Seven Group Holdings have a MC of $7B from the chart.

They better get in quick and chuck their hat in the ring before Sky is snapped up!

[uravgtrader]

Nothing below $1 please.

[Habits]

https://i.imgur.com/lRUegyO.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/gYv4jqF.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/StQO9QF.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/GZgDsHF.jpg

Dividend for fy22 and fy23 has dropped from 3.1 cps to 1.0cps. WTF! Dividends are a kpi of board and ceo performance

[waikare]

Jeez that wouldn't be good for those who bought >$3. Hopefully they been averaging down.

Hell I need $2.21 just to break even, not including brokerage, I am in my early 70s, even if I was to try and "average down" I still would be out of pocket, if not the kids probably will.

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/gYv4jqF.jpg


So FUBAR project that Sky will produce FCF of $210M between FY21 and FY23... yet only pay out a dividend of $8.7M in FY23?

I would like to chat with the 'analyst' who has put this together. What are they expecting Management will do with the remaining $200M for the remaining 3 years if not return it to shareholders?

If none of these unsolicited offers come to fruition in the next few months, I would still expect management to declare some sort of dividend at the Annual Results. No buyback was mentioned in the amazing presentation, so I guess that ain't happening.

FUBAR's numbers are wrong anyway. FY21 FCF is going to be more like $70M-$80M.

Even if The Board are conservative, I see no reason why they would not return $35M of that (2c/share) to shareholders.

Not making a prediction here, as who really knows when they will start paying out. Just making the point that even by FUBAR's numbers there is going to be a lot of cash generated even after taking into account programming costs and increased CAPEX (before it reduces after FY23). So there isn't really any reason to think that nothing will be paid out for years to come.

Given the Investor Day was one day before the end of FY21...they should have been able to state an intent of paying a dividend at the end of the year. They already know if they are able to or not.
They didn't have to declare a dividend or state how much, just they they expect to be able to pay a dividend this year and are working through what percentage of FCF is suitable given the investments needed etc.

But no, they didn't do that. They never actually shared anything that was particularly useful.

Slide 80 was 'interesting' but not useful.

[clown]

This is how the management prepared that presentation
https://giphy.com/gifs/edbassmastershow-cmt-the-ed-bassmaster-show-3o72F5tx9CEhSDxonC

Slide 80…
https://giphy.com/gifs/yevbel-steve-greene-26xBJp4dcSdGxv2Zq

No divvies, no buyback, no takeover, at least we have a new substantial holder.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So FUBAR project that Sky will produce FCF of $210M between FY21 and FY23... yet only pay out a dividend of $8.7M in FY23?

I would like to chat with the 'analyst' who has put this together. What are they expecting Management will do with the remaining $200M for the remaining 3 years if not return it to shareholders?

If none of these unsolicited offers come to fruition in the next few months, I would still expect management to declare some sort of dividend at the Annual Results. No buyback was mentioned in the amazing presentation, so I guess that ain't happening.

FUBAR's numbers are wrong anyway. FY21 FCF is going to be more like $70M-$80M.

Even if The Board are conservative, I see no reason why they would not return $35M of that (2c/share) to shareholders.

Not making a prediction here, as who really knows when they will start paying out. Just making the point that even by FUBAR's numbers there is going to be a lot of cash generated even after taking into account programming costs and increased CAPEX (before it reduces after FY23). So there isn't really any reason to think that nothing will be paid out for years to come.

Given the Investor Day was one day before the end of FY21...they should have been able to state an intent of paying a dividend at the end of the year. They already know if they are able to or not.
They didn't have to declare a dividend or state how much, just they they expect to be able to pay a dividend this year and are working through what percentage of FCF is suitable given the investments needed etc.

But no, they didn't do that. They never actually shared anything that was particularly useful.

Slide 80 was 'interesting' but not useful.

worth keeping in mind about Forsyth Barr:
1) their arch rival is heading up the review of takeover offers.
2) they are backing the NZ players association plans to ruin the NZR silver lake deal. Talking down Sky is another indirect attack on NZR revenue stream (not to mention NZR owns some of Sky)