SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[jimdog31]

worth keeping in mind about Forsyth Barr:
1) their arch rival is heading up the review of takeover offers.
2) they are backing the NZ players association plans to ruin the NZR silver lake deal. Talking down Sky is another indirect attack on NZR revenue stream (not to mention NZR owns some of Sky)

very valid points thanks laser.

[mistaTea]

I think part of the issue we have for Sky (in terms of SP) is this false narrative that Sky are faced with ever increasing programming costs.

The 'analysts' have drawn the conclusion that because there is more competition in the market, and the cost of individual rights have gone up in many cases that therefore the total spend on programming for Sky will have to go up by x% a year ad infinutum.

That is just not true at all. Each year Sky set a budget on how much programming costs will be. We had a lot of savings due to Covid recently, so the HY1 results had artificially low programming rights. From HY2 those costs will increase to normalised amounts.

Sky have a budget for a given year of around $350M max I believe on rights. Managements job is to secure as much premium entertainment and sport content that they can for that money. Once it is spent, no more content can be acquired.

As the cost of rights increase (from competitive forces) what happens is that Sky has to be more picky on what they acquire, keep and let go. So long as they can keep the most compelling content to ensure their bundles are attractive they are fine. There are hard choices they have to make, but fortunately they have a lot of viewership data to leverage in the decision making process.

We won rugby and had to pay more for that content. So something had to be let go...which turned out to be domestic cricket. But domestic cricket was less critical because we already had the international stuff.

We secured a new NRL deal, and that cost more...so to stay within budget we have had to let go of the UEFA tournament.

We are also doing co-exclusive deals where it makes sense to make savings so that we can still go after other content.

So the total amount that we are spending in content (largely dictated by projected revenue and anticipated operating costs + CAPEX needs) isn't actually changing that much. It is just that we are now unable to win everything and have to be much more deliberate in keeping the 'truly important' stuff. Having the soccer is great, but if only a small percentage of your base are staying up to watch the games then you will let it go if it means keeping the more popular NRL etc.

And this is why Sky is able to remain cashflow positive (in a big way) even though individual content contracts cost more.

[winner69]

Finally sussed the meaning of that gif ogg keeps posting when responding to me

Its Sophie's offsider slamming the door shut on another potential acquirer - WE ARE NOT FOR SALE AT ANY PRICE so piss off

[Habits]

Finally sussed the meaning of that gif ogg keeps posting when responding to me

Its Sophie's offsider slamming the door shut on another potential acquirer - WE ARE NOT FOR SALE AT ANY PRICE so piss off

Our Sophie doesnt want LOW lifes turning up to the BALL ... when the right offer WALKS IN THE DOOR even you will say well done sophie

[mistaTea]

Our Sophie doesnt want LOW lifes turning up to the BALL ... when the right offer WALKS IN THE DOOR even you will say well done sophie


Stop calling Ogg a low life!

[silu]

Finally sussed the meaning of that gif ogg keeps posting when responding to me

Its Sophie's offsider slamming the door shut on another potential acquirer - WE ARE NOT FOR SALE AT ANY PRICE so piss off

You obviously haven't seen the episode. Short synopsis: Old people still have lots to teach us. Subsequently ignores old person and kicks them out.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It's simple:

Sky owns a house on leasehold land.

The ground rent is up for renewal in 2025.

Sky needs to sell the house to the grantor for $500m and return the lease.

If the grantor refuses to pay $500m, Sky can burn the house down so the grantor can't profit from it.

I’m somewhat confused with what is what in this…?

The leasehold land is NZR broadcast rights? The Grantor is NZR? The house is…skys core business?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So anyone want to estimate Sky’s cash balance at present? What would it be growing at every month on average as it continues to not pay dividends? Somewhere in the region of $5-$10 million per month?

It’s shame they decided to repay the $100 million in bonds back in March with cash instead of re-issuing debt. Could have repurchased half the company in less than 12 months with that cash + expected cashflow.

[mistaTea]

So anyone want to estimate Sky’s cash balance at present? What would it be growing at every month on average as it continues to not pay dividends? Somewhere in the region of $5-$10 million per month?

$6M per month.

[nztx]

I’m somewhat confused with what is what in this…?

The leasehold land is NZR broadcast rights? The Grantor is NZR? The house is…skys core business?



Can't be a appropriate fitting Nicholas Gage entry for this one .. huh .. ;)

[Habits]

So anyone want to estimate Sky’s cash balance at present? What would it be growing at every month on average as it continues to not pay dividends? Somewhere in the region of $5-$10 million per month?

It’s shame they decided to repay the $100 million in bonds back in March with cash instead of re-issuing debt. Could have repurchased half the company in less than 12 months with that cash + expected cashflow.

If it is that much $5-10m/mth then why the need exit the Mt wellington property for what would amount to a 4 to 6 mths net cashflow. A purchase such as Spark Sport in the offing perhaps

[Habits]

Analysts, investors shrug at Sky's corporate intrigue at investor day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12454945

Paywalled

Chris Keall states "The Australian (news) threw around names of potential suitors like Discovery, NBCUniversal or the "logical" possibility of a telco (a possibility that probably doesn't appear as logical to Kiwi reader"

Chris has obviously not read the Sky thread

[mistaTea]

Analysts, investors shrug at Sky's corporate intrigue at investor day

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12454945

Paywalled

Chris Keall states "The Australian (news) threw around names of potential suitors like Discovery, NBCUniversal or the "logical" possibility of a telco (a possibility that probably doesn't appear as logical to Kiwi reader"

Chris has obviously not read the Sky thread

Well, if Bowman was hoping that Slide 80 would create a huge buzz with corresponding price action then it was a pretty epic fail.

But I don’t think that was the game plan. More a signal that Sky is open to suitors and please get in contact with Jarden if you want a piece of this action.

[allfromacell]

Sky did emphasis less free cash going forward as they 'invest for growth'. I'm certainly getting bombarded with adds for Sky broadband. I wonder how much is being spent marketing this new offering.

[jimdog31]

"Jarden analysts Arie Dekker and Luan Nguyen maintained an "under-weight" rating on the pay-tv provider after the briefing, though nudged their target price up from 18.0c to 19.0c."

Well if that's the case - 20c seems like the best we can hope for in a potential transaction?

[jimdog31]

Sky did emphasis less free cash going forward as they 'invest for growth'. I'm certainly getting bombarded with adds for Sky broadband. I wonder how much is being spent marketing this new offering.

If they plan to only get 10% of their base on broadband and its not adding much margin then this is not the way.

WE NEED GOOD BUNDLES!!

[mistaTea]

"Jarden analysts Arie Dekker and Luan Nguyen maintained an "under-weight" rating on the pay-tv provider after the briefing, though nudged their target price up from 18.0c to 19.0c."

Well if that's the case - 20c seems like the best we can hope for in a potential transaction?

Takeovers are often a 30-50% premium to the SP.

I think someone would pay 25c/share max to buy sky. Unless there was a bidding war.

25c/share would not be a great outcome for long term owners, unless it was part of a merger whereby they would have the opportunity to participate in any upside the new entity yields.

[jimdog31]

Takeovers are often a 30-50% premium to the SP.

I think someone would pay 25c/share max to buy sky. Unless there was a bidding war.

25c/share would not be a great outcome for long term owners, unless it was part of a merger whereby they would have the opportunity to participate in any upside the new entity yields.

Wouldn't it stand to reason if Jarden is driving any negotiations that their price target of 19c would be a potential crutch to that premium?

[winner69]

Wouldn't it stand to reason if Arie of Jarden is driving any negotiations that his price target of 19c would be a potential crutch to that premium?

Doubt whether this Arie would have anything to do with the Jarden ‘advisory’ team

[winner69]

Takeovers are often a 30-50% premium to the SP.

I think someone would pay 25c/share max to buy sky. Unless there was a bidding war.

25c/share would not be a great outcome for long term owners, unless it was part of a merger whereby they would have the opportunity to participate in any upside the new entity yields.

I’d jump at 25 cents

[mistaTea]

Doubt whether this Arie would have anything to do with the Jarden ‘advisory’ team

Yeah Arie is not involved with the advisory team.

That article confirms there is a ‘Chinese wall’ between Arie and the advisory team to ensure everything is above board.

[mistaTea]

I’d jump at 25 cents

If someone offered 25c the board would have to present it to shareholders I think.

25c is a 50% premium. A serious offer.

[allfromacell]

$6M per month.

Let's be honest guys, most of us would take 20c, heck I'd take 18c.

Not a great look when everyone wants to slog this dog off to the lowest bidder and the prospect buyers know this

[airedale]

Chinese walls? Who takes them seriously?

[JSwan]

Basically they’re selling the shares down to 14c then making a takeover offer at 18-19c, and everyone will be happy cause it’s 30%+ premium

[mistaTea]

Basically they’re selling the shares down to 14c then making a takeover offer at 18-19c, and everyone will be happy cause it’s 30%+ premium

I shouldn’t have added the Rialto Channel recently because this stuff is way more entertaining!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Paramount+ arrives next month: https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/media/paramount-plots-nz-streaming-launch

[mistaTea]

Paramount+ arrives next month: https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/media/paramount-plots-nz-streaming-launch

It will be interesting to see how they go.

I think that there are so many OTT services now that we are actually at the point where each new platform released in NZ benefits Sky as the bundle starts to look much simpler and cost effective again.

[silu]

NRL staying with Sky TV until 2027.

Very good news indeed.

[jimdog31]

NRL staying with Sky TV until 2027.

Very good news indeed.

did your post take a week to save?!

[bottomfeeder]

The Chairman and CEO did not quite say that takeover offers were coming in, they alluded to perhaps, mergers, or joint ventures. Im sure Vocus was looking at SKY for a while.

[mistaTea]

The Chairman and CEO did not quite say that takeover offers were coming in, they alluded to perhaps, mergers, or joint ventures. Im sure Vocus was looking at SKY for a while.
Agree 100%.

And a merger with Vocus is the best thing for sky long term in my view.

Hopefully Jarden can help the board see the light.

If there is still an opportunity, the window is rapidly shrinking. Vocus NZ will go ahead with the IPO to get their $600M+ if they have to.

[silu]

did your post take a week to save?!

The cold froze my brain for a week it seems.

[silu]

did your post take a week to save?!

The cold froze my brain for a week it seems.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Agree 100%.

And a merger with Vocus is the best thing for sky long term in my view.

Hopefully Jarden can help the board see the light.

If there is still an opportunity, the window is rapidly shrinking. Vocus NZ will go ahead with the IPO to get their $600M+ if they have to.

What’s the value of merging with Vocus again? There is no obvious overlap besides the brand new broadband effort (which is using vocus as the back end provider).

[mistaTea]

What’s the value of merging with Vocus again? There is no obvious overlap besides the brand new broadband effort (which is using vocus as the back end provider).

All explained here: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/283698/237127.pdf

Just substitute 'Vodafone' for 'Vocus', revise the financials and hey presto! We have a deal.

Business Case even stronger today than it was in 2016 given the changes we have seen.

[jimdog31]

All explained here: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/283698/237127.pdf

Just substitute 'Vodafone' for 'Vocus', revise the financials and hey presto! We have a deal.

Business Case even stronger today than it was in 2016 given the changes we have seen.

Maybe change the $$ amounts too :)

[jimdog31]

Nothing.

mistaTea forgets this is the year 2021 and Media/Telcos are no longer a thing.

Thank God for Comcast, Discovery and ViacomCBS, otherwise we would be screwed!

You forgot spark, infratil

[mistaTea]

Nothing.

mistaTea forgets this is the year 2021 and Media/Telcos are no longer a thing.

Thank God for Comcast, Discovery and ViacomCBS, otherwise we would be screwed!

Not sure about that, but it is fair to say that if our Board were enthusiastic about the idea they would have sorted out a deal by now. Especially since we have a very warm relationship with Vocus right now.

I see the combined businesses having synergies from cost savings, as well as being better positioned to grow broadband/mobile numbers significantly as they bundle STB and streaming solutions.

[mistaTea]

You forgot spark

No way could these guys get a deal with Sky past the comcom. For one thing, Spark kicked up the biggest stink about Sky-Vodafone. And second, Spark is by far and away the most dominant telco in NZ...and they already have Spark Sport. Even if they guaranteed some sort of genuine wholesale offer to other businesses, I think the Comcom would grabble with it.


infratil

No desire to buy Sky. Happy with the wholesale arrangement and the new owners invest their capital in hard assets. They would be more likely to have a go at buying Vocus than Sky.

[Sideshow Bob]

Have you taken your meds today Ogg?? ;)

[mistaTea]

Broadband isn't even a business. Forecast is ZERO earnings for Sky.



As a wholesale arrangement sure. We are giving our margin away with the Disney+ deal, so zero earnings in the first year.

But Vocus are still making margin on every single Sky connection. A merged entity could absolutely make money growing the broadband base.

You mentioned Sky Mobile, but you forgot...Sky Energy!

Mega Bundles. Attractive Pricing. One convenient bill. A spiffy new STB thrown in for free.

JOIN SKY!

[jimdog31]

Off market trades have definitely dried up....

[jimdog31]

Obviously the cat's out of the bag.

Who would be dumb enough to sell stock now when you can sell it all to a large media conglomerate brokerage free.

Does kiltearn care though? They did almost 10,000,000 on investor day (assuming it was them)

[John_Pinnacle]

Sky doesn't need a deal with any telco. Sky has shifted to a data based model and looks to be using that data really well. I like where this is going. All this talk about a deal is not needed at all. In 2 - 3 years I'm picking Sky to be $2 per share... Or at least I hope :p

[jimdog31]

https://i.imgur.com/dbnfLEj.jpg

"NEW MARKETS"
https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg



Sky is one of Europe's leading media and entertainment companies. 24 million customers in seven countries get brilliant TV, broadband and mobile from us.

Please let it be so.

[jimdog31]

David Rhodes Joins Comcast to Lead International Business Development for Sky

Rhodes, based in London, will report to Andrea Zappia, Sky’s EVP and CEO for new markets and businesses.

https://www.adweek.com/tvnewser/veteran-tv-news-exec-david-rhodes-joins-comcast-to-run-international-business-development-for-sky/482470/


https://i.imgur.com/vwMin.gif

The murdoch tie up I imagine makes him familiar with our market here?

[mistaTea]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lockerroom/sky-breaks-ground-with-all-female-olympic-team

Either some virtue-signalling from Sky, or perhaps they had to sack all of the male Sky Sport staff (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sexual-harassment-and-bullying-workers-claim-toxic-culture-in-sky-tvs-sports-department/ZVZGBEDHS7FDJV5E3XKJH7PMWA/) for being sexual predators...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lockerroom/sky-breaks-ground-with-all-female-olympic-team

Either some virtue-signalling from Sky, or perhaps they had to sack all of the male Sky Sport staff (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sexual-harassment-and-bullying-workers-claim-toxic-culture-in-sky-tvs-sports-department/ZVZGBEDHS7FDJV5E3XKJH7PMWA/) for being sexual predators...

Any move that means Kirstie Stanway is on screen more gets an A+ Rating from me.

[silu]

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/lockerroom/sky-breaks-ground-with-all-female-olympic-team

Either some virtue-signalling from Sky, or perhaps they had to sack all of the male Sky Sport staff (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/sexual-harassment-and-bullying-workers-claim-toxic-culture-in-sky-tvs-sports-department/ZVZGBEDHS7FDJV5E3XKJH7PMWA/) for being sexual predators...

Strange that you call this virtue-signalling when Kirstie Stanway and Rikki Swannell are some of the best sports commentators of any gender around.

[airedale]

https://i.imgur.com/WW8eUMr.gif

Very droll, Ogg.

[mistaTea]

Strange that you call this virtue-signalling when Kirstie Stanway and Rikki Swannell are some of the best sports commentators of any gender around.

How is it strange? Sky make a lot of noises about being fantastic for women. A little embarrassing for Sky when it turns out Sky Sports is alleged to be full of male goons who treat their female colleagues like pieces of meat.

I think their announcement of this 'ground-breaking female cast' meets the definition of virtue signalling (https://www.dictionary.com/browse/virtue-signaling)?

I never said that I think any of the chosen four are no good, or not up to snuff. I think Kirstie and Rikki would have been covering the Olympics anyway because they are very, very good.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/230822

TVNZ picked up the rights to the NBC content Sky passed on.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/230822

TVNZ picked up the rights to the NBC content Sky passed on.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/230822

TVNZ picked up the rights to the NBC content Sky passed on.

damn - the pickings getting increasingly slim for Sky now.

[mistaTea]

damn - the pickings getting increasingly slim for Sky now.

How do you mean?

Sky signed with NBCUniversal in April for the content they want. All the new shows etc exclusive to Sky.

TVNZ have picked up the rest of the content NBCUniversal have that Sky didn’t want to buy (as their viewership data gives them a better insight into which shows are popular).

Great for TVNZ to ink a deal with these guys, but also good to see Sky being disciplined in which content they take and how much they pay for it.

[LEMON]

Pig starring Nicholas Cage coming to cinemas in August.
All I will see is this share price going no where and Oggs Bichokas Cage sarcasm lol
Wonder if Neon will get to air it in the future lol lol

[mistaTea]

Is Comcast smart enough to come in and buy all three?

Why? You think content and telco businesses don't work well together anymore.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So what is the company(s) we should be comparing a successful Sky/Vocus and/or 2degrees merger with? Any obvious international examples? Locally all we have of course is Spark (mobile/broadband/sport).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So what is the company(s) we should be comparing a successful Sky/Vocus and/or 2degrees merger with? Any obvious international examples? Locally all we have of course is Spark (mobile/broadband/sport).

so I guess the best comparison is Sky Group Uk - before they were acquired by Comcast. I guess sky nz is 5 years late on starting the transition to telco though, but better late than never.

[mistaTea]

so I guess the best comparison is Sky Group Uk - before they were acquired by Comcast. I guess sky nz is 5 years late on starting the transition to telco though, but better late than never.

Well, they need to do something big. The market does not rate them as a stand-alone content aggregator, regardless of maintaining significant FCF etc.

Because the market does not believe sky will exist in 5 years. Well, that’s how the business has been priced anyway.

Telcos much more popular. And I believe Sky could be a really good telco.

[bottomfeeder]

Well as a Sky shareholder, should sign up to neon. We will see how good it is. Netflix has a lot of foreign cheap content and old movies anyway. Except I liked Fauda immensely.

[silu]

Well as a Sky shareholder, should sign up to neon. We will see how good it is. Netflix has a lot of foreign cheap content and old movies anyway. Except I liked Fauda immensely.

I had the 3 month trial with Neon and now I can't give it up because I re-watched Succession and now Billions in anticipation of the new series coming up. In terms of movies Neon p*sses all over Netflix. I can't believe how bad almost all Netflix produced movies are. Almost makes a case for the old school studio format of movie making.

[bottomfeeder]

How do you get three months free.

[allfromacell]

Foxtel is doing an IPO!

https://www.afr.com/street-talk/news-corp-telstra-roadtest-foxtel-s-potential-ipo-pitch-20210706-p5878g

https://i.imgur.com/MziYqFD.jpg

Seriously, what the f*ck is going on!

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

It's time to give up on the dream mate, I'm going to start selling 10% a month starting next week. Don't want to exit it all at once because if I do that a takeover will be announced immediately.

[silu]

How do you get three months free.

I got it through my ISP Spark. Also getting Sky Sports Now & Spark Sport as a $49 bundle through them.

[jimdog31]

It's time to give up on the dream mate, I'm going to start selling 10% a month starting next week. Don't want to exit it all at once because if I do that a takeover will be announced immediately.

Why pray tell? with all these parties coming to market via IPO, doesn't that show you that Sky has some valuable commodities in its ready to rock Customer database? One of these parties will want a leg up?

[mistaTea]

Skepticism about a Foxtel IPO.

https://www.afr.com/companies/media-and-marketing/foxtel-ipo-tough-needle-to-thread-industry-insiders-20210707-p587ig

Interestingly, the Foxtel IQ4 STB actually looks pretty good. Fresh, modern UI with thumbnails for content, allows you to stream on Demand as well as apps like NETFLIX...plus also uses satellite and allows you to record etc...

And yet, despite a pretty decent STB offering, their core customer base is still rapidly declining in favour of their streaming options - Kayo for Sport and Foxtel NOW for entertainment.

Yet our Board and Management think NZ is different and based on their 'customer insights' date we need to spend a bunch of dosh on a new box. Unbelievable.

[jimdog31]

And now the Off markets are back...

[sb9]

Another 8mln or so shares traded so far, surely one would hope seller would've dried up by now...

[allfromacell]

Why pray tell? with all these parties coming to market via IPO, doesn't that show you that Sky has some valuable commodities in its ready to rock Customer database? One of these parties will want a leg up?

I bought this stock for two reasons, firstly because of massive free cash flows and therefore anticipated big dividends and or buy backs. Secondly, a merger or takeover of some sort.

This first point seems to be going out the window, management are reluctant to pay out free cash and instead want to spend it all on new products and offerings, I don't have much faith in management to execute on these initiatives. Previously my lack of faith wasn't as problematic, all they had to do was collect the checks and pay the dividends, this is no longer the case as flagged in the investor presentation, there will be significantly less free cash flow going forward.

Now the merger or takeover angle is still very much in play, in fact more likely now than ever but I think what is clear is noone is interested in paying very much. Sky waving the white flag in slide 80 imo comes from a position of weakness and they're probably getting hard balled on negotiations.

Last year I didn't mind having unlimited patience for a deal as long as the dividends returned and I was being paid for my patience, this is no longer the case and there are good reasons the SP is in the toilet.

[nztx]

Congratulations. I'm proud of you!

https://i.imgur.com/kNi4rKa.jpg

"Like you, I lost faith in management long ago - not that I even had much faith to begin with! We both know the "dividend game" was a side show, a total distraction! Only low IQs still believe in cashflow, but you're a smart kid, you can see through that!

Here's the good news. I guarantee you valuation isn't a factor in the takeover talks. Sky isn't coming from a point of weakness, in fact it's the opposite, they're in the box seat here! They've got multiple parties interested in doing a deal. It's all out there for them. A takeover...a major partnership...a big merger...they got it all kid. We just have to sit tight and wait for the fireworks to happen. I'm talking 6, maybe 8 weeks tops, so don't sweat it!

Look, here's what happened this week. We had a bunch of retard Sharesies users push the stock up after reading a few takeover articles on the news. Then the dividend investors started taking some off the table because they were worried about the long term cashflow. When the stock stalled, all the retard Shareies users lost their nerve and chickened out like a bunch of girls! Now we're right back in the regular trading pattern of 16-18 cents, so nothing to worry about here kid.

Listen here, I got the scoop, I'm telling ya! Just let me take care of it. You don't sell, you hear me! Don't sell! When the big deal goes through in a few weeks we're both gonna be rich! This is how the game is played. You wanna be a player don't you? You don't get rich waiting for dividends and paying tax! It's all about the fast and easy money. That's how the big boys do it. Welcome to the takeover team. You're a smart kid, you're gonna go places. Just stick with me, alright!"


All the Sharesies fellas might be a bit too smart to want to watch SKY go up & down based on a couple of pages here - Ogg..
What's the bet they're too busy with NWF instead, which does pay a dividend ? ;)

[mistaTea]

Congratulations. I'm proud of you!

https://i.imgur.com/kNi4rKa.jpg

"Like you, I lost faith in management long ago - not that I even had much faith to begin with! We both know the "dividend game" was a side show, a total distraction! Only low IQs still believe in cashflow, but you're a smart kid, you can see through that!

Here's the good news. I guarantee you valuation isn't a factor in the takeover talks. Sky isn't coming from a point of weakness, in fact it's the opposite, they're in the box seat here! They've got multiple parties interested in doing a deal. It's all out there for them. A takeover...a major partnership...a big merger...they got it all kid. We just have to sit tight and wait for the fireworks to happen. I'm talking 6, maybe 8 weeks tops, so don't sweat it!

Look, here's what happened this week. We had a bunch of retard Sharesies users push the stock up after reading a few takeover articles on the news. Then the dividend investors started taking some off the table because they were worried about the long term cashflow. When the stock stalled, all the retard Shareies users lost their nerve and chickened out like a bunch of girls! Now we're right back in the regular trading pattern of 16-18 cents, so nothing to worry about here kid.

Listen here, I got the scoop, I'm telling ya! Just let me take care of it. You don't sell, you hear me! Don't sell! When the big deal goes through in a few weeks we're both gonna be rich! This is how the game is played. You wanna be a player don't you? You don't get rich waiting for dividends and paying tax! It's all about the fast and easy money. That's how the big boys do it. Welcome to the takeover team. You're a smart kid, you're gonna go places. Just stick with me, alright!"

Patience, child!

Earning Power will win out in the end. It always does.

It’s just taking a little longer than I anticipated with Sky!

AHHH HUHUHUHUHUHU!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Interesting price action today. Someone just keeps hitting the ask.

[mistaTea]

So I watched the UEFA final this morning...not really much of a football fan...

Though I note that this was on Sky Sport 7 (beIN sport).

In 2019 we extended our partnership with beIN Sport for another 4 years.

But does this not mean that Spark Sport actually won the UEFA championship from next year from beIN Sport? Not Sky?

I am not even sure Sky put a bid in for this?

The net result is still that Sky don't get to show the football...however it appears inaccurate to say it was won from Sky, when beIN have the rights?

Hopefully Sky can work with Spark to do a similar beIN Sport deal whereby a channel or two can be dedicated to Spark Sport content. We have given them a wholesale streaming deal...they should show that they can work with Sky and get a similar deal going for satellite.

Go for the win-win, as there will never a be a 'winner takes all'.

[airedale]

The game was also on Prime free to air.

[jimdog31]

more big qtys, someone still selling, someone still buying

[nztx]

We still jogging on the spot with SKT ? ;)

No take out developments yet ? ;)

[mistaTea]

Sky is delighted to announce that we will broadcast and stream all 64 matches of the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023 live and on-demand. This is fantastic news for Sky and for women in sport.

Sarai Bareman, Chief Women’s Football Officer, FIFA (and proud New Zealander!) says: “FIFA is excited to welcome Sky as our official broadcaster of the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023™ for New Zealand. Sky has shown a strong track record of broadcasting women’s football in New Zealand and this deal will provide unprecedented coverage of the tournament, as well as bringing women’s football to more fans and new audiences. We look forward to working with Sky to promote the FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023 to accelerate the growth and visibility of the women’s game in New Zealand in the lead up to 2023.”

We are honoured to have been chosen to deliver the FIFA Women’s World Cup and are committed to supporting the growth and development of the women’s game alongside our support for women in sport across dozens of other codes, athletes, teams and communities throughout Aotearoa.

Almost one billion fans watched the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup in France and we think the 2023 tournament will be bigger again, with more teams and an even larger fanbase, and of course in two fantastic countries – Australia and New Zealand.

The last word must surely go to Ali Riley current captain of the Football Ferns: “The FIFA Women’s World Cup 2023 will be the biggest sporting event ever held in Aotearoa and it is great to know every game will be broadcast live on Sky Sport. This is a once in a lifetime opportunity for kiwi fans to see the best players in the world right here in New Zealand. This is our chance to inspire in future generations at home, and across the wider Pacific, and I know the whole squad can’t wait to get started.”

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I guess FIFA will be paying NEP a handsome fee to produce the live broadcasts, after sky sold them the OSB business?

slimming down operations does have its drawbacks sometimes.

[mistaTea]

I guess FIFA will be paying NEP a handsome fee to produce the live broadcasts, after sky sold them the OSB business?

slimming down operations does have its drawbacks sometimes.

No? Why would they?

Sky will pay NEP. We secured a 10 year deal with NEP as part of the OSB sale. NEP provide a service to Sky TV, not FIFA (or any other sporting code).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

No? Why would they?

Sky will pay NEP. We secured a 10 year deal with NEP as part of the OSB sale. NEP provide a service to Sky TV, not FIFA (or any other sporting code).

Today’s announcement is merely Sky getting the broadcast & streaming rights for the tournament in New Zealand (most games are played in Australia), sky is not producing the content AFAIK. FIFA owns the worldwide rights to the tournament and sell them off country by country.

[mistaTea]

Today’s announcement is merely Sky getting the broadcast & streaming rights for the tournament in New Zealand (most games are played in Australia), sky is not producing the content AFAIK. FIFA owns the worldwide rights to the tournament and sell them off country by country.

As part of the broadcast rights, Sky will need to be able to produce the domestic matches. Just like they do with SANZAAR or any other code that has domestic matches.

The sporting codes negotiate a price to broadcast their matches with the Broadcasters around the world, but the it is up to whoever wins the rights to facilitate the production of any home games. The sporting codes do not have separate negotiations with companies like NEP - it's not their problem.

[uravgtrader]

And right on cue after that great news, sky shares dip. As per usual.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

As part of the broadcast rights, Sky will need to be able to produce the domestic matches. Just like they do with SANZAAR or any other code that has domestic matches.

The sporting codes negotiate a price to broadcast their matches with the Broadcasters around the world, but the it is up to whoever wins the rights to facilitate the production of any home games. The sporting codes do not have separate negotiations with companies like NEP - it's not their problem.

that’s not the case with big tournaments like world cups. Usually for those events the organizer (IOC, FIFA etc) provide generic raw video product for everyone to layer their own commentary and visual effects/replays etc on. For instance a Swiss company HBS has produced all the FIFA men’s World Cup tournaments around the world since 2000, rather than the host country broadcaster, and that’s because fifa want consistent high quality, rather than just going with whichever network paid the most for the broadcast rights in the host country.

having said that I don’t know if they will do the same with the women’s World Cup yet.

[mistaTea]

that’s not the case with big tournaments like world cups. Usually for those events the organizer (IOC, FIFA etc) provide generic raw video product for everyone to layer their own commentary and visual effects/replays etc on. For instance a Swiss company HBS has produced all the FIFA men’s World Cup tournaments around the world since 2000, rather than the host country broadcaster, and that’s because fifa want consistent high quality, rather than just going with whichever network paid the most for the broadcast rights in the host country.

having said that I don’t know if they will do the same with the women’s World Cup yet.


Well I'll be damned. I never knew that.

[winner69]

And right on cue after that great news, sky shares dip. As per usual.

Don’t appear to have told the market ….maybe it’s a bit of Ho hum news

[winner69]

At least NZ doesn’t need to qualify for this World Cup …..will see a few games with them in before the competition gets serious

[jimdog31]

so the property sale must be going well.....

[mikelee]

so the property sale must be going well.....

'cos the sp dropped again? according to this morning's Herald it's due to the imminent interest rate rise

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/nicolas-cages-tiger-king-series-scrapped-no-longer-relevant/KQMK4JTHFZIUZN2DFQC72FCSKM/

Ogg will be gutted.

[jimdog31]

'cos the sp dropped again? according to this morning's Herald it's due to the imminent interest rate rise

No, more like the time its taking, and lack of updates.

[mistaTea]

No, more like the time its taking, and lack of updates.

Either they didn’t get the interest they wanted, and now won’t sell it because they can only get chump change for it…or…

An intense bidding war is ongoing and shareholders are in for a massive windfall!

Is it premature for me to nip out to New World and grab a bottle of Dom Perignon?

[RTM]

Either they didn’t get the interest they wanted, and now won’t sell it because they can only get chump change for it…or…

An intense bidding war is ongoing and shareholders are in for a massive windfall!

Is it premature for me to nip out to New World and grab a bottle of Dom Perignon?

Nah...do it. Either drowning your sorrows or celebrating. You'll have them both covered.

[RTM]

Either they didn’t get the interest they wanted, and now won’t sell it because they can only get chump change for it…or…

An intense bidding war is ongoing and shareholders are in for a massive windfall!

Is it premature for me to nip out to New World and grab a bottle of Dom Perignon?

Duplicate..............

[mistaTea]

It was useful to get a breakdown of CAPEX needs for Sky.

Interestingly, the 'stay in business' CAPEX requirements for Sky is only about $10M-$15M.

That produces FY21 Owner Earnings of $110M-$120M.

Since investing in Sky I have conservatively taken the entire CAPEX spend and treated it all as 'keep the lights on' (and therefore end up with a lower OE figure). I think this is still fair at the moment because the money spent on growth is tied to survival...and in a way is all 'stay in business' spend (i.e. if they don't invest in streaming, broadband etc there would not have been a business left for very long).

But still useful to get the breakdown. Once the big investments are completed over the next 2-3 years FCF will rocket up again. We will stay FCF positive the whole way (which is amazing when you think about it) but should comfortably generate FCF north of $50M again in a few years if Management and The Board are effective in their strategy.

[mistaTea]

Once the big investments are completed over the next 2-3 years FCF will rocket up again. We will stay FCF positive the whole way (which is amazing when you think about it) but should comfortably generate FCF north of $50M again in a few years if Management and The Board are effective in their strategy.

And yes Ogg, before you say it - "just Cage lol. None of this matters bro! Takeover soon!!"

[mistaTea]

I have to say, these "unsolicited offers" seem unlikely to eventuate into anything.

It has been over 3 weeks since they announced that they have employed Jarden to help with a review. Jarden would have been employed before the Investor Day...so it could be more like 4 weeks.

I think it would only realistically take a week or two for The Board to decide if they were going to pursue any of the deals. Certainly not a month.

My guess is that they are not moving forward with any of the proposals.

It would also appear that the property sale is not happening either, for similar reasoning.

[airedale]

So what next, perhaps Ogg will consult his crystal ball again:mellow:.

[jimdog31]

"my guess"

We all know what happened last time when you said the building wouldn't get listed - it got listed!

Seriously bro, leave the wild speculation to me, alright! Go make some more phone calls.

Wow ogg, how uncanny a minute after you posted.....

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/image/png;base64,iVBORw0KGgoAAAANSUhEUgAAATwAAAApCAYAAAC oaZWaAAAI60lEQVR4Ae2d72vbRhjH3dHBBnu5N/sX9rrsnwkBo7ywsV0QwsNohJS0L0yLS0kJ7kZCQ0YpGIODSwkp DmVZwAzc0UBiWAgYQ2oSvBSSghwQhu 4Oys6yZZxZlu2xWMwkqX78dzn7r567gdyCP0 zR0shzMoX/YLNNl7Hz58mKwBlDua7x5BebKHKW4mVEtEgBMI9eNg1naxWfw4 1Q2ZBK9fDfpxz0T9/QaKB1d ZEZ5EIGhCPQVvKFS9ikyCZ5PoCkbIhAAAiR4AahEKgIRIAKDES DBG4wThSICRCAABEjwAlCJVAQiQAQGI0CCNxgnCkUEiEAACJDg BaASqQhEgAgMRoAEbzBOFIoIEIEAECDBC0AlUhGIABEYjEDo07/XmOUv24c3y/aT7bPd/qj RP0NJjeTD0Ue3uTrgCwgAkTAJwIkeD6BpmyIABGYPAESvMnXAV lABIiATwRI8HwCTdkQASIweQIkeJOvA7KACBABnwhMTvBME/j0CXj2DPjpJ CHH8SR/WbX2f0BPvS2lAEgURAiQAQ4gVCTHYwj5B8mkVB1JKIqlreO0S0 3LZzkHyER06FFVaRW98DjWiCNCtajccw/3Om8P08KH1MReVjAybUVGMDpKbCwAHz7LfD118CdO LIfrPrTPQG IxF8Bq7WLkfh7J55LKghcpqHImXH2G47rCf1ZdxKFEdmtb5Pp/cSzHZSznnF5K2LVoOJ26bveqdXxdliER1ZMtnIqbXdTldrzC3v S6nOYrz9hWqr5egzKVR mwlKNqopnq0aSsYO7rbN3s57pyKhFXXmo78P3IEn885X9GHRf/cQeMa/OWsN 0gpkL5OYuyo P6bOeEswstbp8BnysovjsSndgoY2UuiXzNZVmjgJT19uP2EV5H 41j/25bFk9c6lAVb8MyDNSgLWVS4Mpyh9CAOnpeV7OPHwDffAF99Jc QuFBJH9ptdz2SskH2PoxY8s1bAYlRHqpfgnbxCYmHF8w3QXPC6 RLKv WO7yQXv5uHTKxsTB sqlBcVUe 8Ay9h 9xE5YUk6udvsDzX77qc9m3jeoWX0xzF QUqz3VEftYRkQTPrGSh3F9DlbXR9hm23W1UytrdvsF5yeIpBfb 91MWxfYF69RRGuyN4N 1APLCV3yo9HBrfjZ5IhqH59K7zjcafd5C2hE02iQneXBYV5qW1 a8hrqi14pwUsqq9Q2nokeXhyZFN4RrKK/vgjcPcuwIRO/jJPj11n9wf4jFrw0DZhXJvCW5PFq11DMRXHcqnj7fSwbbYEz1W A6zKy/EH3EZuOB94Vyk/iSL//0 P6hZTQbeMOkqaU/DCn1y2Y58wrs0WK1VdCapPGfgZd/YHl2at9T5XgXaD0MA5ty 2luAWv /cwSGcxbmg vIEqt/wIeU1HJKwi875XpzZRf/sIETWDzKKKxIsyLtvWkzGJzcOWcJ9vniY2DuNwDYmFNP6QXenv vrM9O1nwLE P3R/gM3LB6 TpFq/L/QyUuTgiqo7Fpzkc3AyLbCNZHGv4kF7fRb3XuNcOPtYz7uGFVT6 k9bLXNqCF6ssklPQumj06Mmfx6 8OsWBx3Yx6eT194w6Spm3k8GeOsolRx3JJEuzDNfD UC9Am9NRPO3Tvnlaoj1oixnkD6R0hrf01ikYhxvQwipST3Mo1 3X7Ts8/S/HyD9wivytM5rxCJLgiZKY53vIRpN4/Y89XOV32HDuPhv/m0AH3Er5Cs1SGpFnYq7KAdcCw56qCzo23f95MK0eXsduZ2c 5kN4NrdptE0097OIhNdw4EJ0WT8Gw4P2Bcovkpj/5Y1zntNi4sPRPD9G/dIE2leob6Wh9LDXMqP5Lg1F3cDBF DWoiV7wQ5BEanPpODBhPmlxQvg2b6vz1DvCItRK2A57Jzisdj6 emy30DjcwfqiCkV9hap7Dk9LI1usCEfFV8OmJ7OQvchgG8Ub6S vnhH110zmJz8UtvYU3D JQ2EIGm7xlixbMq1jtTNZ3xG5lv4fHOKVzeBYFh B1dWQ2dItjU7jGVhTnsSuO87a/v7ztFWK3gvK5ZVHvYelyqffw0 Eh4bZxB0nTsmsER1edsDruGtI6RijCC/Rs35JJjvYiXZ/IKZ9yYtMQF56jronYNQWZhha3T9EoZaA93RXeiMdcFRe4VAENZ nT7CuVVpwCyyw4P73wPK6qOnmLHAsurtGzOzpq7m4ZVWvdwrbN Ik/1LPPVRy9kLOGYLJhvam6co53KodIbtRjkLRc3hhN3z/XOF6tsNlE46Liizt8diS3N/BZoqix0zVEyAR15 FBPbbNEivITthtd1uXBeYW57XU5zhOcuweOLFtE17gnZixZsHG vCNFzuu6t9G9U32Cx1djMwgUmpYCOeyXxaqO/l7PrmK8pijt3RJydj3FTlGmqyDmnUsP1EFVsqYkmx5YR31BqKW hyZ/Ss TKus62DbFLRYEomnha45Khkue Jxb09atk9tHduFl/fh3bsHfP89wI5Tsg/P/cRmw5ZMVGxDSMSWsP4Xm7NpofI8DmW1DAMmGntZpKIqNDWJRCq LPxrdncYGMN4zo5rDMrc3iUQsjXy10xlPC9D4opTw hzbaLQlFNneFXmLg7qErOWhe12/SfN/xPVKcxx4XILH6u9mq5Wq2 2ezeGFdRTrTiPk9o0vbCuXikhMRyKWRDp/xFdFnTH8 8XqO822f7EtNqzO3tX46rvDZv/Mmdqc m88Zg2k14rtFBVnXIsWU1TEkZrCOsCo/zR7HGmOtNCUGBHoEOgrePRH3EFrJ P40 xxpBk07lSeaSHQV/Cmxch dpCH148O3SMCREAmQIIn06BzIkAEAk2ABC/Q1UuFIwJEQCZAgifToHMiQAQCTYAEL9DVS4UjAkRAJkCCJ9Ogc yJABAJNgAQv0NVLhSMCREAmQIIn06BzIkAEAk2A/oh7xv InP4Imv7IexrawKyoJHl4s1JTZCcRIAJDEyDBGxohJUAEiMCsE CDBm5WaIjuJABEYmgAJ3tAIKQEiQARmhQAJ3qzUFNlJBIjA0AT A1Ef2BwPT3nPAAAAAElFTkSuQmCC

[jimdog31]

"my guess"

We all know what happened last time when you said the building wouldn't get listed - it got listed!

Seriously bro, leave the wild speculation to me, alright! Go make some more phone calls.

Wow ogg, how uncanny a minute after you posted.....

5,200,000 16.5 10.45am

[mistaTea]

"my guess"

Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.


We all know what happened last time when you said the building wouldn't get listed - it got listed!

I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.


Seriously bro, leave the wild speculation to me, alright! Go make some more phone calls.

Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.

So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.

I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.

But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.

Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.

Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.

So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.

As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).

[mistaTea]

"my guess"

Hey, look...I know you are hurting mate. Your whole strategy is to buy shares on the basis that someone else will buy them off you at a higher price 'soon'. The radio silence must be absolutely doing your head in. I forgive you for lashing out, don't worry.


We all know what happened last time when you said the building wouldn't get listed - it got listed!

I said that Sky would not list any of their properties? I have no recollection of this. Hopefully you can find a link to my original post to refresh my memory.


Seriously bro, leave the wild speculation to me, alright! Go make some more phone calls.

Now, to be fair...you have been wrong on every single thing you have speculated on for the last couple of years. I know you have taken the Investor Day announcement of "unsolicited approaches" as vindication...but there is absolutely no evidence that Comcast (or anyone else for that matter) has approached Sky with a takeover bid.

So perhaps a little "guesswork" from others isn't such a bad idea.

I should also point out that I hope I am wrong about this. If The Board can pull together a deal that adds value to shareholders, of course I would be open to it.

But as each day passes from this point on, I gotta say - it seems less likely that a deal is happening.

Re: the property sale. I emailed Colliers on Friday 16 July asking for an update. The contact emailed me back soon after and said he would "come back to me with an update shortly". I haven't heard anything since.

Emailed him this morning again as a follow up and...still nothing.

So my 'guess' is that this also does not bode well for Sky converting unneeded property into much-needed cash. I can only assume that any indicative offers were below what The Board expected.

As a business owner, it is good to know that The Board aren't just jumping for 'any old deal' just for the sake of it. They have a clear idea of what Sky and its assets are worth, and they are sticking to that (so it seems).

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

As it turns out, I did hear back from Colliers a couple of hours after I made that post.

The contact said he had been advised that no decision has been made at this stage. And unfortunately he is unable to "shed any more light on it".

Doesn't exactly scream out that The Board have been inundated with exceptional offers, does it?

[jimdog31]

Comcast obviously want to buy the buildings as well, so they have more production facilities.

Hence a "decision" hasn't been made yet as they work through the broader takeover.

If the full year results come and there's no update on the buildings or a takeover. I'M GONE FOR GOOD! No extensions either.

Didnt you just post this?

https://i.imgur.com/w30QP0e.jpg

[mistaTea]

Comcast obviously want to buy...

I seriously doubt Comcast has any interest in SNT. They aren't interested in small fries at the arse end of the world, I don't think.

Discovery are probably interested in some kind of deeper partnership with Sky. We see evidence of that with the recent deals we have done (Olympics etc).

Sounds like private equity have also made some initial enquiries - but I bet their offers would have been so cheeky that The Board ruled them out pretty early on.

If The Board are still considering opportunities...I think it is most likely a toss up between Discovery and Vocus.

This is pure guesswork for its entertainment value. Hopefully we will know one way or the other by the time the Annual Results are released.

[jimdog31]

I seriously doubt Comcast has any interest in SNT. They aren't interested in small fries at the arse end of the world, I don't think.

Discovery are probably interested in some kind of deeper partnership with Sky. We see evidence of that with the recent deals we have done (Olympics etc).

Sounds like private equity have also made some initial enquiries - but I bet their offers would have been so cheeky that The Board ruled them out pretty early on.

If The Board are still considering opportunities...I think it is most likely a toss up between Discovery and Vocus.

This is pure guesswork for its entertainment value. Hopefully we will know one way or the other by the time the Annual Results are released.

When is that Roughly?

[mistaTea]

When is that Roughly?

Early September.

[allfromacell]

I’m finally out completely, takeover is dead sorry master EGG

[Hawkeye]

Comcast obviously want to buy the buildings as well, so they have more production facilities.

Hence a "decision" hasn't been made yet as they work through the broader takeover.

If the full year results come and there's no update on the buildings or a takeover. I'M GONE FOR GOOD! No extensions either.

Fingers crossed there's no updates....

[clown]

If the full year results come and there's no update on the buildings or a takeover. I'M GONE FOR GOOD! No extensions either.

Promise? :laugh:

[allfromacell]

If there was a serious negotiation going on the SP would be showing signs of it, take over is dead, dividends are dead and the dream is over. Onto stocks which actually increase revenue, profit and dividends year after year :).

Good luck though, hopefully my selling is the catalyst to good fortunes for you.

[jimdog31]

If there was a serious negotiation going on the SP would be showing signs of it, take over is dead, dividends are dead and the dream is over. Onto stocks which actually increase revenue, profit and dividends year after year :).

Good luck though, hopefully my selling is the catalyst to good fortunes for you.

Seriously? 12 million shares were moved offmarket yesterday.

[allfromacell]

Seriously? 12 million shares were moved offmarket yesterday.


Perhaps I’m not the only one running out of patience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Black Crane look for an exist shortly and book a small profit. They mentioned during the recent presentation that would hold managements ‘feet to the fire’ regarding spending excess free cash flow on fruitless growth initiatives and not return any of it to shareholders which is my number 1 reason for selling.


This business is undervalued, the board simply needs to initiate a buy back and reward patient shareholders.

[jimdog31]

Perhaps I’m not the only one running out of patience. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Black Crane look for an exist shortly and book a small profit. They mentioned during the recent presentation that would hold managements ‘feet to the fire’ regarding spending excess free cash flow on fruitless growth initiatives and not return any of it to shareholders which is my number 1 reason for selling.


This business is undervalued, the board simply needs to initiate a buy back and reward patient shareholders.

I Hear you. But theyre hardly going to be doing dividends and buybacks in the middle of takeover negotations?

[mistaTea]

I Hear you. But theyre hardly going to be doing dividends and buybacks in the middle of takeover negotations?

Dividends is the last thing they will do regardless of any current negotiations.

Their whole strategy is around growth. You only start paying dividends with excess cash if there are no better used or cash to increase shareholder wealth by making the business more valuable.

They once alluded to the possibility of dividends in FY22, but after the ID I don’t think that is going to happen for a while yet.

They could use the excess cash + debt to try and make an acquisition of their own if the right opportunity arises.

[steveb]

has any thought gone into a management buyout,with an undervalued company and cash on hand it would be a more attractive prospect than private equity.

[mistaTea]

I’m finally out completely, takeover is dead sorry master EGG

I don’t think there had ever been a ‘takeover’ proposal on the table.

[mistaTea]

We know for a fact that someone tried to takeover Foxtel Australia last year and got turned down.

Ergo someone MUST have made a takeover pitch for sky?

Perhaps private equity put in a cheeky offer and got turned down right away.

But for the serious offers/negotiations that are worth consideration, I get the feeling that it is more of the ‘merger’ variety. Deepening of existing partnerships.

I accept that I could be wrong about that.

[mistaTea]

The time has come



But haven't you been saying this for two years now?

The time is always 'NOW' and this time is always 'different' to your previous prophecies (https://media0.giphy.com/media/yDKftiRVMdDQk/giphy.gif).

[Joshuatree]

The Time Has Come, The Oggrus said
To talk of many things
Of shoes and ships and set top box
Of cabbages and Kings
And why the sea of streaming is boiling hot
And whether Sky has Wings.

[clown]

Rugby league: New Zealand and Australian teams pull out of 2021 Rugby League World Cup
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=12459716

Didn’t Spark win the rights to this recently? Might look less appealing without NZ and Aus

[stoploss]

OGG if you do sell out can you please post it on here at least 5 minutes before the market close. Reason being the day after there is bound to be a takeover and I want to get long in advance.

Cheers & Thanks

S/L

[nztx]

You won't be able to get in because when I sell the stock will go to ZERO and the company will declare bankruptcy.


but my good friend OGG .. for all the time you spent in the kitchen pondering all things SKY & looking up into
the clouds for guidance .. surely you must have had thoughts of things better than Zero & BankruPtcy ? ;)

Some may have thought you hinted earlier that this one could be a five or ten bagger .. ;)

[jimdog31]

going to start notching the days on a belt.

[jimdog31]

Article about Vocus NZ and TwoDegres IPO:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/as-vocus-group-sale-wraps-up-attention-turns-to-nz-arms-ipo/DEC3ZRIFUI25XOIIJPNFMGGGSQ/

TwoDegrees priced at ~$1.6b
Vocus NZ ~$700m

Could be a merger between these two and then a trade sale, so no IPO.

In my opinion, these two companies are better off without Sky.

Sky is better off with Comcast or Discovery.

Any guesses as to what Sky will be paying to either of those 2 companies for programming?

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/844t90u.jpg

These 2Degrees numbers look very similar to Sky but Sky is worth only $250m

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

I appreciate the market values telcos more highly than content aggregators…but that is just ridiculous.

[mistaTea]

The fact that 2Degree's revenue is going down and it's track record over the last 10 years makes the valuation even more questionable.

Not only that, but you've got Spark and Vodafone as huge competitors!

2Degree's brand is also sub-tier.

Seriously, they should be valued at the same as Sky.

Even Infratil seems to be moving away from Vodafone and going more into Medical and datacenter investments. Wouldn't be surprised if they were looking to exit their 50% investment. Vodafone/2Degrees merger makes more sense. They should get ComCom approval in a post covid world.

It just further highlights to me why Vocus would want Sky, given the low valuation Sky currently has (and opportunity for a bargain).

If Vocus hooked up with Sky, they would more than triple their operating cashflow to $220M+ (and that is before they realise any synergies).

It seems like the expectation is that telcos get a EBITDA multiple of ~9. I think that is ambitious for 2Degrees and Vocus, but let's just go with that as this is roughly the Spark valuation. And the investment bankers seem to think Vocus and 2Degrees could get near it.

So Vocus-Sky would have Day1 EBITDA of ~$220M. Even if they get a lower multiple of 6 to start with (given most of the revenue comes from Sky, and their industry is still changing rapidly...) that would still be a market cap of $1.32B. a multiple of 7 would be $1.54B. This is before synergies are realised and growth (and the combined entity would be much better placed for growth through superior bundles than as standalone entities).

Well, if Vocus is worth $700M, and even if they pony up $500M for Sky (70% premium to the SP today)...they would make a gain overnight of $100M-$400M most likely. More if the market is optimistic about the Union. And then much more over the next few years as they grow rapidly.

It totally makes sense.

I would be shocked if Vocus was not part of the mix trying to do a deal with Sky.

If I was Vocus, and The Board would not play ball with a merger...I would go hostile. The potential gains over time are so enormous, I don't think they can let this deal go.

Let's see what happens.

[mistaTea]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-general-skt-full-year-results-announcement-date.6178457/

FY results announced 25 August.

[winner69]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-general-skt-full-year-results-announcement-date.6178457/

FY results announced 25 August.

That is a long way off

[mistaTea]

That is a long way off

Only a month away?

[RGR367]

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/ann-general-skt-full-year-results-announcement-date.6178457/

FY results announced 25 August.

Oh no. You mean all speculations of mergers/acquisitions/takeovers/etc gonna end soon:cool:

[Alpha]

Only a month away?

Quick everyone sign up to all SKY products to help with the "negotiations"

I'm a bit miffed at Sky's approach to new customers (could be a sign like management that they just dont care) - Pre broadband I tried to get the Sky Satellite reconnected at my property. Tech came around and asked a few questions and then said I would need an electrician to run all cables etc as I did not want cables running all over the place. I have a TV mounted above a fireplace.

Anyway The only reason I had been looking to get Sky was to gain access to Broadband as initially you had to be a customer.

The reason I am annoyed is I have not once been followed up with since having the Tech person around. I still do not have SKY hooked up and did actually want to get it sorted. As the customer I am not sure why I have to chase/ follow up on them. If they want my money chase me I am not in a rush to flush my money. Any have since decided I can live with out the connection as I have SKY Go via a "friend" which I now is not what they want but if this was a standalone product/ or merged with Neon then I would even need to use a friends or better yet if SKY had chased me I would have been paying the higher fees and also a broadband customer.

The soon this so called Merger/ Buyout happens the better. As this one needs a massive shake up. I am only just here with you other holders and do see value in this company but...... tired so tired.

Full year result better be bloody fantastic.

[clown]

Only a month away?

Too long for Ogg, he will change his mind about selling out again :)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

bledislow & Rugby Championship schedule in the balance somewhat with travel bubble closing for 8 weeks.

With first game on Aug 7th - NSW located players will have to fly by tomorrow to have any chance of completing 14 days MIQ in time for Aug 7 game. Players in all other Aussie states can highly likely travel to NZ quarrantine free for the next 7 days (if they are classified as "economically significant" which they will be), before MIQ becomes mandatory.

I would bet there is some shuffling of games so all NZ based games with AUS/SA/ARG can be played here in sequence over 4-5 weeks, before the whole comp maybe move to Australia for the 2nd Half.

thanks goodness the olympics are on to cover sports fans for a few weeks, would probably be safe to move that Aug 7th game out a week or two if needed.

[winner69]

bledislow & Rugby Championship schedule in the balance somewhat with travel bubble closing for 8 weeks.

With first game on Aug 7th - NSW located players will have to fly by tomorrow to have any chance of completing 14 days MIQ in time for Aug 7 game. Players in all other Aussie states can highly likely travel to NZ quarrantine free for the next 7 days (if they are classified as "economically significant" which they will be), before MIQ becomes mandatory.

I would bet there is some shuffling of games so all NZ based games with AUS/SA/ARG can be played here in sequence over 4-5 weeks, before the whole comp maybe move to Australia for the 2nd Half.

thanks goodness the olympics are on to cover sports fans for a few weeks, would probably be safe to move that Aug 7th game out a week or two if needed.

The Perth date Aug 21 is interesting

Prob play that in nz now …if the series goes ahead

The good old economic value trick to ‘justify’ making changes to the rules.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The Perth date Aug 21 is interesting

Prob play that in nz now …if the series goes ahead

The good old economic value trick to ‘justify’ making changes to the rules.

For sure - definitely won't work to go to Perth and back. Seems highly likely play 2 here in NZ, and do a third in OZ at end of season (hopefully after bubble back open).

good news is that all the wallabies have been in a bubble in Queensland, so likely will all be able to travel over this week without MIQ.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/all-blacks/125845566/all-blacks-bledisloe-cup-tests-up-in-the-air-after-government-pauses-travel-bubble

[mistaTea]

Thinking more about the property sale. Highly unlikely that Sky have not been presented with an offer from a developer or someone else that is compelling enough to accept. They don't need the space, and the land alone will have a certain amount of value that The Market will pay.

When, after all this time, the contact at Colliers said "no decision has been made yet" - that does seem to me that the sale has been put on pause while Jarden work with the various 'interested parties' to see if a Sky deal can be done. Otherwise, if no deal was going to be made for the property anymore I think they would have to tell us - and Colliers wouldn't be still waiting in the wings for a decision to be made.

From here, we know a few things to be true...



Sky cannot continue in its current form. Well, technically the business can continue as a going concern and stay FCF positive for the foreseeable future, however the problem for shareholders is that the market does not rate business that simply rent content for distribution anymore. Despite Sky's continued strong underlying financial performance, the market prices the business each year as though it will be out of business in 5 years time. Even when Sky win key content deals like Discovery, Viacom, NBCUniversal, rugby, NRL, netball, cricket etc...the market shrugs and says "yeah ok, but what about in 5 years time? You probably won't be able to renew...or if you do the cost will be exorbitant..." And therefore an excessively low EBITDA multiple is given for the business. It isn't fair, and has certainly caused me a lot of consternation over the years - but it is what it is. If Sky continues as they are, no doubt they will eventually do buybacks and divvys...this will return some value to shareholders, but even though these moves will probably give somewhat of a 'bump' to quoted value, it will always be muted by the overall pessimism of how the market views Sky's current business model.
In a connected, digitised world you must either earn off the IP or the connectivity. Shareholders like Ogg prefer the IP route (takeover by someone like Comcast, Discovery Viacom). Shareholders like me see more value in earning from connectivity (merging with Vocus, or even perhaps 2Degrees). Neither approach is right or wrong I don't think - both would increase value for Sky shareholders, it's just a matter of how much value.


I think Discovery is interested in some kind of a deal, but not Comcast or any of the other big content producers (though I stand to be corrected). It makes sense for Discovery because they just bought TV3 and are in this market...I don't really see the benefit to Comcast etc since they have no existing presence and NZ is a small market. If Discovery are in talks with Sky and Jarden, I would be surprised if it was for a takeover. I could see them doing some kind of a partnership or JV, but not sure that they need to spend half a billion dollars to acquire Sky wholly to achieve their objectives. Let's see.

A much better outcome long-term imo is for Sky to fully embrace telco. 2 Degrees may or may not be in the mix, but I would think Vocus should be the preferred option. We already get internet through them so the relationship is warm. And, depending on how a deal is constructed, I think Sky shareholders could end up doing very well.

Let's say Sky was valued at $500M (70% premium but still less than 3xEBITDA. Fair to current shareholders given the sustained low SP but also represents a reasonable valuation for Vocus). And let's just say Vocus are valued at $700M (the higher end of the valuations we have seen in the media).

If the deal was based on a shares-only settlement (no cash component) then you end up with a new entity that has ~4.36B shares outstanding listed on the NZX and ASX. Existing Sky shareholders own ~40% of the new business, and Vocus NZ owners hold the remaining ~60%.

In theory, the new business should be 'worth' $1.2B ($500M Sky + $700M Vocus NZ). However, the new entity will produce EBITDA of $200M+ next year (just on current earnings, not taking into account synergies, cost savings and future growth).

The market is highly likely going to see this move as a positive, with large growth prospects for the new Sky-Vocus entity in broadband and mobile given the superior bundles that can be offered.

Even if to start with, the market initially put a valuation based on 7xEBITDA, that would be a market cap of $1.4B. That equates to a $120M extra gain to Vocus NZ owners right away. It would also be a SP of 32.5c/share - which would be a tremendous outcome for long suffering Sky shareholders.

I actually think Mr Market could be much more enthusiastic than that. If he was, and a 9-10xEBITDA was achieved (based on material growth assumptions) then Sky would be valued at as much as $2B in the near term (with the potential to go much higher over time as earnings increase significantly from broadband and mobile).
A $2B valuation would be an extra gain of $480M to the Vocus NZ owners. It would also be a SP of 46c/share which is damn near 3 times where the SP is atm).

If the SP initially settled anywhere between, say, $1.5B - $2B it would be a fantastic outcome for all parties involved. I think this is based on reasonable assumptions.

No doubt there are risks, and it is also uncertain how the incumbents would respond to a Sky-Vocus threat...it certainly won't all be sunshine and lollipops for the new entity. However I still maintain that this is most likely the best avenue for Sky shareholders and Vocus moving forward.

Whether I am right or wrong about the end state for Sky, one thing I know for sure is we cannot remain as just a content rental business. The market places very little value on these businesses now (something I have had to learn the hard way) and Sky needs to embrace a new business model with both hands now (be that the IP or connectivity route).

[Baa_Baa]

Despair

.. insert suitable GIF

[mistaTea]

Despair

.. insert suitable GIF

Well, even the banks across the ditch are getting into broadband.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/christopher-niesche-why-aussie-banks-are-snapping-up-broadband-companies/LN2VXC666ETFTU7Q2C23D2VWJY/

If the banks of all things see value in broadband (and are actually buying large stakes in the businesses) I think Sky should definitely go beyond a wholesale broadband deal and become a fully fledged telco.

With a little luck, this is the recommendation from Jarden.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Thinking more about the property sale. Highly unlikely that Sky have not been presented with an offer from a developer or someone else that is compelling enough to accept. They don't need the space, and the land alone will have a certain amount of value that The Market will pay.

When, after all this time, the contact at Colliers said "no decision has been made yet" - that does seem to me that the sale has been put on pause while Jarden work with the various 'interested parties' to see if a Sky deal can be done. Otherwise, if no deal was going to be made for the property anymore I think they would have to tell us - and Colliers wouldn't be still waiting in the wings for a decision to be made.

From here, we know a few things to be true...



Sky cannot continue in its current form. Well, technically the business can continue as a going concern and stay FCF positive for the foreseeable future, however the problem for shareholders is that the market does not rate business that simply rent content for distribution anymore. Despite Sky's continued strong underlying financial performance, the market prices the business each year as though it will be out of business in 5 years time. Even when Sky win key content deals like Discovery, Viacom, NBCUniversal, rugby, NRL, netball, cricket etc...the market shrugs and says "yeah ok, but what about in 5 years time? You probably won't be able to renew...or if you do the cost will be exorbitant..." And therefore an excessively low EBITDA multiple is given for the business. It isn't fair, and has certainly caused me a lot of consternation over the years - but it is what it is. If Sky continues as they are, no doubt they will eventually do buybacks and divvys...this will return some value to shareholders, but even though these moves will probably give somewhat of a 'bump' to quoted value, it will always be muted by the overall pessimism of how the market views Sky's current business model.
In a connected, digitised world you must either earn off the IP or the connectivity. Shareholders like Ogg prefer the IP route (takeover by someone like Comcast, Discovery Viacom). Shareholders like me see more value in earning from connectivity (merging with Vocus, or even perhaps 2Degrees). Neither approach is right or wrong I don't think - both would increase value for Sky shareholders, it's just a matter of how much value.


I think Discovery is interested in some kind of a deal, but not Comcast or any of the other big content producers (though I stand to be corrected). It makes sense for Discovery because they just bought TV3 and are in this market...I don't really see the benefit to Comcast etc since they have no existing presence and NZ is a small market. If Discovery are in talks with Sky and Jarden, I would be surprised if it was for a takeover. I could see them doing some kind of a partnership or JV, but not sure that they need to spend half a billion dollars to acquire Sky wholly to achieve their objectives. Let's see.

A much better outcome long-term imo is for Sky to fully embrace telco. 2 Degrees may or may not be in the mix, but I would think Vocus should be the preferred option. We already get internet through them so the relationship is warm. And, depending on how a deal is constructed, I think Sky shareholders could end up doing very well.

Let's say Sky was valued at $500M (70% premium but still less than 3xEBITDA. Fair to current shareholders given the sustained low SP but also represents a reasonable valuation for Vocus). And let's just say Vocus are valued at $700M (the higher end of the valuations we have seen in the media).

If the deal was based on a shares-only settlement (no cash component) then you end up with a new entity that has ~4.36B shares outstanding listed on the NZX and ASX. Existing Sky shareholders own ~40% of the new business, and Vocus NZ owners hold the remaining ~60%.

In theory, the new business should be 'worth' $1.2B ($500M Sky + $700M Vocus NZ). However, the new entity will produce EBITDA of $200M+ next year (just on current earnings, not taking into account synergies, cost savings and future growth).

The market is highly likely going to see this move as a positive, with large growth prospects for the new Sky-Vocus entity in broadband and mobile given the superior bundles that can be offered.

Even if to start with, the market initially put a valuation based on 7xEBITDA, that would be a market cap of $1.4B. That equates to a $120M extra gain to Vocus NZ owners right away. It would also be a SP of 32.5c/share - which would be a tremendous outcome for long suffering Sky shareholders.

I actually think Mr Market could be much more enthusiastic that that. If he was, and a 9-10xEBITDA was achieved (based on material growth assumptions) then Sky would be valued at as much as $2B in the near term (with the potential to go much higher over time as earnings increase significantly from broadband and mobile).
A $2B valuation would be an extra gain of $480M to the Vocus NZ owners. It would also be a SP of 46c/share which is damn near 3 times where the SP is atm).

If the SP initially settled anywhere between, say, $1.5B - $2B it would be a fantastic outcome for all parties involved. I think this is based on reasonable assumptions.

No doubt there are risks, and it is also uncertain how the incumbents would respond to a Sky-Vocus threat...it certainly won't all be sunshine and lollipops for the new entity. However I still maintain that this is most likely the best avenue for Sky shareholders and Vocus moving forward.

Whether I am right or wrong about the end state for Sky, one thing I know for sure is we cannot remain as just a content rental business. The market places very little value on these businesses now (something I have had to learn the hard way) and Sky needs to embrace a new business model with both hands now (be that the IP or connectivity route).

I think the reason for the massive slump in Sky value is simply due to the fact they are no longer a monopoly.

In the past there was never any serious threat of sky not getting the NZR rights (the big kahuna), and also that there was no other pay tv operator in NZ to bid for the rest of the premium content in the market (because no one has scale and it was too expensive to build out without an existing user base. Now there is a viable cheap alternative to proprietary infrastructure (OTT streaming), and sky is no longer a monopoly, and is competing with companies with vastly more financial resources and scale

Even when sky is successful in being able to retain content rights (when content providers choose to not provide them directly themselves that is), it has to spend a lot more than previously to do so (just look at the last NZR renewal). The odds of Sky retaining the NZR rights at the next renewal I think is fair to say are less than 50%, and once again the price expectations will be for significantly higher costs.

Also, Vocus doesn't have a mobile network - they just resell the spark mobile network access. They don't have the billons in cash needed to build one from scratch and obtain rights to use any of the needed frequencies. I don't see what value Sky would be to Vocus shareholders - If Vocus want to get into owning content, it would be much cheaper and more profitable to simply bid for NZR rights at the next renewal. But it makes much more sense for Vocus to look to merge with 2 degrees than Sky IMO.

[bottomfeeder]

Sky success will never be explosive, they are like the video rental shop in the old days. They are tired, and need to get into the 23 century. They are just moving into a market, that has beat them to it and seems to be getting crowded already. Having said that, they can still be a viable company, even though it may be slow and steady. They need a model that will see them into the years ahead. Why would you sign up to Sky fibre, when there are already plenty of successful operators out there. I don't know, but then again I am not getting paid the big bucks that the staff are. I say earn your money, and do something fabulous, instead of just turn up at work.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think the better option is for sky to split into two:

Company A: Sky Infra - Owns the satellite customer base and assets, resells content supplied by company B (sky digital), just like Vodafone & spark resell sky content. Also includes new broadband effort, can also approach other content providers about reselling their content on its platform.

Company B: Sky Digital - Owns the premium content rights sky has (both sport and "non-sport"), produces content and also owns the Streaming infrastructure & customers using Sky Sport Now, Rugbypass and NEON.

=====

Company A is a cash cow that can pay large dividends for years, but with no growth ahead of it, and isn't attractive to anyone as a takeover target. Company B has the assets any potential buyer wants and is a much cleaner potential sale.

I believe this would provide the best result for shareholders - a cash cow probably valued more than half of the current market cap easily, and an easy sale of the valuable assets for probably close to current market cap. The issue is that no management team want to be left in charge of a no growth cash cow and see there most valuable assets (content rights) and growth products (streaming) get sold off.

[mistaTea]

I think the reason for the massive slump in Sky value is simply due to the fact they are no longer a monopoly.


I agree with you...


Despite Sky's continued strong underlying financial performance, the market prices the business each year as though it will be out of business in 5 years time. Even when Sky win key content deals like Discovery, Viacom, NBCUniversal, rugby, NRL, netball, cricket etc...the market shrugs and says "yeah ok, but what about in 5 years time? You probably won't be able to renew...or if you do the cost will be exorbitant..."



I think the better option is for sky to split into two:

Company A: Sky Infra - Owns the satellite customer base and assets, resells content supplied by company B (sky digital), just like Vodafone & spark resell sky content. Also includes new broadband effort, can also approach other content providers about reselling their content on its platform.

Company B: Sky Digital - Owns the premium content rights sky has (both sport and "non-sport"), produces content and also owns the Streaming infrastructure & customers using Sky Sport Now, Rugbypass and NEON.


Pie in the SKY. Just playing silly buggers with how many entities form SNT does not alter the fact that the existing business (content rental and distribution) is not valued highly by the market.
Telcos, on the other hand, are valued very highly (even though broadband is considered low margin).

Sky clearly see that offering telco services is the way forward (hence Sky Broadband). I am simply proposing that they become much more aggressive than that.

[jimdog31]

I agree with you...






Pie in the SKY. Just playing silly buggers with how many entities form SNT does not alter the fact that the existing business (content rental and distribution) is not valued highly by the market.
Telcos, on the other hand, are valued very highly (even though broadband is considered low margin).


Sky clearly see that offering telco services is the way forward (hence Sky Broadband). I am simply proposing that they become much more aggressive than that.


Instead of the blimming STB, why not put that capex towards mobile?!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Instead of the blimming STB, why not put that capex towards mobile?!

Sky have zero in the way of technical & financial resources to start a mobile network, and no access to any frequencies they would need to start one. The best they could do would be to resell Spark, Voda or 2 Degrees service, which is a low/no margin business.

[jimdog31]

Sky have zero in the way of technical & financial resources to start a mobile network, and no access to any frequencies they would need to start one. The best they could do would be to resell Spark, Voda or 2 Degrees service, which is a low/no margin business.

Yes but - bundles, customer retention, customer acquisition!!! An Aggregator should focus on aggregating!

[Ferg]

A content aggregator / reseller getting into the telco space makes sense. I touched on this about a year ago, but one of the largest costs in a streaming business is connectivity / bandwidth / delivery (i.e. CDN costs) being the cost of getting the content from your studio to the end consumer. Making money from streaming is hard. If the CDN cost can be eliminated by Sky partnering with a telco who has cables in the ground and connections to other ISPs, then that definitely helps the business model / business case.

[mistaTea]

Instead of the blimming STB, why not put that capex towards mobile?!

Yeah just not feasible really. Would cost a huge amount of money, a non-starter.

[jimdog31]

Yeah just not feasible really. Would cost a huge amount of money, a non-starter.

Event to become a reseller? Thought the commerce commission stepped in to make it more feasible?

[mistaTea]

Event to become a reseller? Thought the commerce commission stepped in to make it more feasible?

Reseller/wholesale is fine. If they merge with Vocus they will be doing just that - using Spark's mobile network.

There could be opportunities over time to invest into an existing mobile network. Inject money into the 2Degrees network (for example) in exchange for a % of equity in the network. You could cut Spark out that way.

Loads of possibilities.

Who knows really, certainly not me. All I know is that, overall, I think it is a good idea for Sky to become a telco. There are established players in the network that a deal can be done with (owners of both 2D and Vocus want to sell the NZ assets, that creates opportunity at this junction for Sky TV).

[mikelee]

I've topped up recently. As long as some dividends are on the way I'm happy to hold this long term, especially in this ultra low TD rate climate. :cool:

[Habits]

Reseller/wholesale is fine. If they merge with Vocus they will be doing just that - using Spark's mobile network.

There could be opportunities over time to invest into an existing mobile network. Inject money into the 2Degrees network (for example) in exchange for a % of equity in the network. You could cut Spark out that way.

Loads of possibilities.

Who knows really, certainly not me. All I know is that, overall, I think it is a good idea for Sky to become a telco. There are established players in the network that a deal can be done with (owners of both 2D and Vocus want to sell the NZ assets, that creates opportunity at this junction for Sky TV).

Have been with Spark since inception or thereabouts... time for a change to SKY mobile (if they have their act together without F ups)

[winner69]

So many channels to watch Olympics on .... really cool

Saves the pain endured watching the Toni, Scotty et al self adulation show on TV1

Thanks SKY

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So many channels to watch Olympics on .... really cool

Saves the pain endured watching the Toni, Scotty et al self adulation show on TV1

Thanks SKY

yes am enjoying the olympics and all the channels. However I'm finding the listings for programmes is incorrectly named quite frequently. Also I wish they had a multi window channel showing a live feed of all channels that you could use for navigation.

[silu]

yes am enjoying the olympics and all the channels. However I'm finding the listings for programmes is incorrectly named quite frequently. Also I wish they had a multi window channel showing a live feed of all channels that you could use for navigation.

On Sky Sports Now it's a bit of a nightmare. The listings are often incorrect. And a couple of channels don't show the listings at all so you have to switch to those channels to see what's on. I often switch to the TV1 stream as the quality is better and at least they tell me from time to time when the Kiwis are next on.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

On Sky Sports Now it's a bit of a nightmare. The listings are often incorrect. And a couple of channels don't show the listings at all so you have to switch to those channels to see what's on. I often switch to the TV1 stream as the quality is better and at least they tell me from time to time when the Kiwis are next on.

In case you weren't aware, the equivalent on Sky Sport is the "Tokyo Gold" channel which is the hosted programming and has all the kiwi action and results etc.

[silu]

In case you weren't aware, the equivalent on Sky Sport is the "Tokyo Gold" channel which is the hosted programming and has all the kiwi action and results etc.

Ha yeah thanks I am aware but the picture quality from TV1 Freeview is much better compared to SSN although I have fibre and the TV is plugged straight into the router. This is a major bugbear for me compared to Spark Sports where the picture quality is superb. I'm such a sport tragic that often I have TV1 on the big screen on mute and browse SSN on my laptop.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

ACC increases holdings in Sky from 8.35% to 9.4%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/376277/351045.pdf

Might be a positive catalyst

[mistaTea]

ACC increases holdings in Sky from 8.3% to 9.3%

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/376277/351045.pdf


Ah you beat me to it!

ACC see value in the long term play...good endorsement for an entity that already has a lot of skin in the game to double down on their investment...

[jimdog31]

Selling at 17.9 on average and buying at 17

Been taking kiltearns share off em.

[jimdog31]

Ah you beat me to it!

ACC see value in the long term play...good endorsement for an entity that already has a lot of skin in the game to double down on their investment...

They are also pro takeover right

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ah you beat me to it!

ACC see value in the long term play...good endorsement for an entity that already has a lot of skin in the game to double down on their investment...

Indeed - I view ACC investment moves as better "market commentary" than most analyst notes.

[mistaTea]

They are also pro takeover right

ACC are patient, long term value-oriented investors.

They would take a pragmatic view to assessing any 'transaction' that is presented (be it takeover, merger, JV or anything else).

I hope ACC buy more.

[mistaTea]

I bet Ogg's heart skipped a beat when he saw there was a SKT announcement...

Christ he must have felt deflated when it was just about ACC buying a few more shares!

[mistaTea]

I couldn't think of anything more lame then holding this stock long term.



To be fair, I think you would consider holding ANY stock long term as "lame".

[winner69]

ACC are patient, long term value-oriented investors.

They would take a pragmatic view to assessing any 'transaction' that is presented (be it takeover, merger, JV or anything else).

I hope ACC buy more.

In love with ACC are we

They hold some of almost every stock on the NZX ….got to do something with the levies eh.


SKT is 0.4% of their NZ investments ….could say they are ‘overweight’ SKY …that’s good but probably a legacy issue.

Wouldn’t read anything into ACC % increasing …as I said got to do something with the levies.

[mistaTea]

I ….got to do something with the levies eh.



Yes, true...although they wouldn't be putting more of those levies into Sky if they thought the business would be bankrupt in 5 years (which is what Mr Market thinks, given the current quoted value).

[Sideshow Bob]

In love with ACC are we

They hold some of almost every stock on the NZX ….got to do something with the levies eh.


SKT is 0.4% of their NZ investments ….could say they are ‘overweight’ SKY …that’s good but probably a legacy issue.

Wouldn’t read anything into ACC % increasing …as I said got to do something with the levies.

Given that SKT market cap is $288m, and NZ Main Board is $186B, then Sky is approx 0.15490127% of the NZX market Cap.

So ACC is indeed over-weight....

Hold on, I have to go.....there is a train coming! :blink:

[mistaTea]

2Degrees full steam ahead (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/2degrees-names-new-chairman-who-will-take-over-if-ipo-proceeds/IDIM2KMB3BMJVWDZZ4R2JYBCKM/) for IPO before the year is out.

$1.6B they reckon! For a business with far less FCF than Sky, yet much more positive sentiment towards it.

I like the Sky UK model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_UK#Sky_Broadband) better anyway. They purchased a broadband service from Telefonica initially in 2013. Three years later they launched Sky Mobile as a MVNO utilising O2's infrastructure. Seems to have worked out for them pretty damn nicely.

Now gee whizz, how on earth might Sky Network Television achieve this exact same outcome? Hmmmmn, anyone?

Oh yes, that's right! Merge with Vocus.

Hey presto! Sky have a broadband network!
Hey presto! Sky can offer mobile as a MVNO using Spark's infrastructure.

[mikelee]

2Degrees full steam ahead (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/2degrees-names-new-chairman-who-will-take-over-if-ipo-proceeds/IDIM2KMB3BMJVWDZZ4R2JYBCKM/) for IPO before the year is out.

$1.6B they reckon! For a business with far less FCF than Sky, yet much more positive sentiment towards it.

I like the Sky UK model (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_UK#Sky_Broadband) better anyway. They purchased a broadband service from Telefonica initially in 2013. Three years later they launched Sky Mobile as a MVNO utilising O2's infrastructure. Seems to have worked out for them pretty damn nicely.

Now gee whizz, how on earth might Sky Network Television achieve this exact same outcome? Hmmmmn, anyone?

Oh yes, that's right! Merge with Vocus.

Hey presto! Sky have a broadband network!
Hey presto! Sky can offer mobile as a MVNO using Spark's infrastructure.

You got my vote next time there is a vacancy for a director on the board. :t_up:

[jimdog31]

question - if nothing comes from these interested parties - do they have to disclose that? or are we left guessing

[winner69]

question - if nothing comes from these interested parties - do they have to disclose that? or are we left guessing

Left guessing

[mistaTea]

Left guessing

FY results given 25 August and then the AGM should be in early to mid September.

If a deal is to be done I would think it would be done within the next few weeks. Once both parties agree in principal it doesn’t take that long to wrap things up.

So if we make it to the AGM with no deal announced it is because no deal is happening.

[bottomfeeder]

Ive been buying on the way down. If it goes down any further I will have to put in an SSH notice. Cmon 25 August, cant be soon enough.

[airedale]

The SP is dribbling around between 16.3 and 16.5 today on minimal volume and $123,697 of value. Reminds me of that old C&W song. "I AM NOBODY'S CHILD"

[nztx]

Ive been buying on the way down. If it goes down any further I will have to put in an SSH notice. Cmon 25 August, cant be soon enough.


I'm waiting until we see what happens when Ogg starts selling down .. ;)

As stated 'the clock is ticking' apparently .. ;)

[clown]

Was at Sylvia park yesterday and Sky had a kiosk selling their packages. Must be part of their Olympics campaign.

[mistaTea]

Was at Sylvia park yesterday and Sky had a kiosk selling their packages. Must be part of their Olympics campaign.

It was probably just Ogg at a booth he set up.

Not actually affiliated with Sky in any way…

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Was at Sylvia park yesterday and Sky had a kiosk selling their packages. Must be part of their Olympics campaign.

May have been a third party marketing company that gets a payment from sky for every subscriber they sign up (the same companies that do door to door sales for various entities like sky, chorus, electricity/broadband retailers, charities etc)

[clown]

Could be, looked pretty cool though.

@mistaTea - must be affiliated to one of those companies he set up.


May have been a third party marketing company that gets a payment from sky for every subscriber they sign up (the same companies that do door to door sales for various entities like sky, chorus, electricity/broadband retailers, charities etc)

[mistaTea]

S

Seriously guys, August 9th is the new date!

Well, as long as you are totally 'serious' this time I am cool with it.

[bottomfeeder]

Well, as long as you are totally 'serious' this time I am cool with it.

No takeover will be finalised before the results come out. Dividend will be paid and SP will increase. The time for takeover was just over a month ago.

[Akane]

Sky's coverage of the Olympics has been excellent. The ability to easily flick between channels and watch a variety of different sports, while also watching regular programming, all on a large sized television is and will always be the preference of choice. The new Sky box will be ready for the next Olympics in 2024 (only 3 years away). With the NRL and All Blacks secured until 2025, it seems unlikely there will be any material churn.


It's been average for me, I bought Sky Sport Now olympics for $25, the schedule is always inaccurate, says Volleyball but they're showing Archery etc.... and a few channels are playing the same game, e.g.: Channel 2 is playing hockey and so is channel 9, and it's the same team!
There are times where channel 9,10,11 is just sitting there idling, whilst there's games going on.

The playing previous games of the day is bugged, started out good, but now if I want to watch a game that showed earlier on the day, some times it's fine, other times I can only go back to when they're already half way in the game.

Not a great experience.

[mistaTea]

That's because streaming is for porn and movies.

Get the STB when watching sport you cheapskate!

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

I have had SSN before and thought it was good.

Currently have a satellite sub and I have to say, it is much better for live sport. Seamless, reliable and the picture quality is a lot better. 'Crisper' somehow (even though SSN is also HD) and the movement on screen is more fluid.

[mistaTea]

I must be Sky's best customer right now.

I pay them $209.59/month for:



Broadband ($79)
Starter ($25.99)
Entertainment ($25.50)
Sport ($31.99)
Movies ($20.93)
SOHO (freebie)
Rialto ($11.18)
MySky ($15)

[mistaTea]

Jesus Christs.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=79DijItQXMM

[mistaTea]

https://protriathletes.org/sky-new-zealand-partners-with-professional-triathletes-organisation-for-live-collins-cup-coverage

Take THAT Spark Sport!

[clown]

Great! So 9th of August it is then...


Peacock to launch on Sky (UK)

https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/peacock-signups-dr-death-comcast-sky-1235030310/

During the call, Roberts and NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell told investors that the company saw no pressing need to grow larger. “This company is well positioned, and I really feel that way,” said Roberts. Both suggested that Comcast and NBCU would be most interested in buying assets that help the company grow overseas.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU

[clown]

August is my Bday month and is usually full of surprises, this would be a really good one to have.


Have I ever been wrong?

[jimdog31]

Peacock to launch on Sky (UK)

https://variety.com/2021/tv/news/peacock-signups-dr-death-comcast-sky-1235030310/

During the call, Roberts and NBCUniversal CEO Jeff Shell told investors that the company saw no pressing need to grow larger. “This company is well positioned, and I really feel that way,” said Roberts. Both suggested that Comcast and NBCU would be most interested in buying assets that help the company grow overseas.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn%3AANd9GcTNMPcP0hP4S8objqWeu2imGBn7RUx OeMVd1w&usqp=CAU


Hmmm, they paid $400 million for the rights to the exorcist. Surely they can afford to buy sky nz for $400 million....

and then ogg can freely exorcise his nicholas cage demons.

[mistaTea]

Have I ever been wrong?

Apart from every single 'prediction' you have ever made? Not at all!

Comcast will buy Sky.

After they merge with Vocus.

[mistaTea]

Lets not forget that the 12th of August last year was when they sold of OSB.

This is the time of year for "deals".

End of year accounts being signed off and finalised.

If something is going to happen, it's going to happen between now and:

https://timer.getmara.com/ZGF0ZT0yMDIxLTA4LTI1JnRpbWU9MTAlM0EwMCZ0aW1lem9uZT 1QYWNpZmljJTJGQXVja2xhbmQmYmNrQ29sb3I9RkJGRjAwJmZv bnRDb2xvcj1GRjAwMDAmbGFiZWxDb2xvcj00NDQ0NDQmZGF5TG FiZWw9ZGF5cyZob3VyTGFiZWw9aG91cnMmbWluTGFiZWw9bWlu JnNlY0xhYmVsPXNlYw==.gif

The real kick in the guts for any notion of a 'deal' being done is that it has now been almost 5 weeks since the Investor Day.

If the Board were enthusiastic for any of the deals, I would have thought something would have been signed off by now.

Doesn't mean that they aren't still negotiating with one of the parties...but the more time that goes on, the less likely it seems.

Honestly, once a deal has been agreed in principal...the financial advisors do not take weeks on end to work out relative valuations, dot the i's and cross the t's.

[clown]

Call colliers again bro!

Find out what these muppets are up to!

I emailed them a few weeks ago as an interested buyer, no reply yet LOL

[mistaTea]

I reckon every one of the ‘unsolicited approaches’ was low ball, opportunistic.

No deal was ever likely.

Jarden were just pulled in to ward them off. Defensive move.

No way does it take 5 weeks and counting to wrap a deal up.

So now we speculate what sky are going to do with the surplus cash.

[clown]

Unless there is a "secret" bidding war happening in the background like with Sky UK?



I reckon every one of the ‘unsolicited approaches’ was low ball, opportunistic.

No deal was ever likely.

Jarden were just pulled in to ward them off. Defensive move.

No way does it take 5 weeks and counting to wrap a deal up.

So now we speculate what sky are going to do with the surplus cash.

[allfromacell]

Unless there is a "secret" bidding war happening in the background like with Sky UK?

Not a chance, with this many parties involved the SP would be showing signs of it, the opposite is happening.

[mistaTea]

Not a chance, with this many parties involved the SP would be showing signs of it, the opposite is happening.

Yeah the SP is probably another indicator that any talks have ceased.

[clown]

Let's hope they announce a divvie or buyback at the results meeting. All these extending of partnerships seem to have a very small effect on the SP.


Not a chance, with this many parties involved the SP would be showing signs of it, the opposite is happening.

[allfromacell]

Let's hope they announce a divvie or buyback at the results meeting. All these extending of partnerships seem to have a very small effect on the SP.

I don't think they'll be doing anything like that especially if the property sale is not going ahead. Free cash flow will be invested on setting up booths to advertise broadband in Silvia park. Anyone holding this company needs to have patience, I don't see any catalyst on the horizon for a big jump other than OGGs wet dream. The market has completely lost faith in this business, the proof will have to be in the numbers and thoes numbers will be lackluster until the 'invest for growth' period proves itself.

[mistaTea]

I don't think they'll be doing anything like that especially if the property sale is not going ahead. Free cash flow will be invested on setting up booths to advertise broadband in Silvia park. Anyone holding this company needs to have patience, I don't see any catalyst on the horizon for a big jump other than OGGs wet dream. The market has completely lost faith in this business, the proof will have to be in the numbers and thoes numbers will be lackluster until the 'invest for growth' period proves itself.

Bang on correct. No divvys coming yet.

If they start returning FCF to investors now it will mean that the growth story they gave at the investor day is bs.

They gave no indication at the ID of any kind of return or capital to shareholders (buyback or divvy).

It’s all about growth. It appears to catalyst transaction is happening, so now we wait and see what they do with the FCF (and debt potentially) to accurate growth.

We should acknowledge that The Board do appear to be taking their role as stewards of our capital very seriously.

We will never know what these ‘offers’ were - but it seems fair to say the deals fell short of Sky’s intrinsic value.

[nztx]

https://i.imgur.com/qB6tNTA.gif

So it's not even for sale?

Just lol.


I wonder if the CEO has decided to put "For Sale" signs on someone's Chair at the
next meeting as pay back for failing to mention her in the last 4 pages ? ;)

[allfromacell]

Bang on correct. No divvys coming yet.

If they start returning FCF to investors now it will mean that the growth story they gave at the investor day is bs.

They gave no indication at the ID of any kind of return or capital to shareholders (buyback or divvy).

It’s all about growth. It appears to catalyst transaction is happening, so now we wait and see what they do with the FCF (and debt potentially) to accurate growth.

We should acknowledge that The Board do appear to be taking their role as stewards of our capital very seriously.

We will never know what these ‘offers’ were - but it seems fair to say the deals fell short of Sky’s intrinsic value.

I just wish they gave something back, even if it's just a token gesture, I think they can clearly afford to. This would imo give a boost the the SP and provide relief to the frustrated shareholders.

Happy to wait and see from the sidelines, I must admit I still have a slither of my previous holding but for the most part have lost patience.

[jimdog31]

all you takeover specialists out there .... if you were a potential suitor, would you have approached any large shareholders (or even better are you allowed) to gauge interest prior to making an offer?

[jimdog31]

Yeah the SP is probably another indicator that any talks have ceased.

ACC buying more doesnt count?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Comcast don't want Vocus!

Comcast want more Peacock users. Their focus is to keep up with Disney+.

Comcast want all of Sky's streaming subs plus they want to target the other 500k satellite customers and move them onto their streaming platform over time.

The new Skybox is key to converting the STB customers over to streaming.

That's why Comcast will pay $500m for Sky NZ as over the next 10 years they will likely get 2m streaming subs total from the NZ market.

agree with the premise. Although there are less than 2m households in NZ, so getting 2m subs would be quite the trick.

[mistaTea]

Brain Roberts, CEO of Comcast

https://i.imgur.com/6LqhiUJ.jpg

30th July 2021: “What we think we can do is look for ways to grow organically, which is what we did this quarter, we’ve been doing all year, and also if there’s partnerships that can accelerate streaming, particularly internationally.”

source: https://www.sportspromedia.com/news/comcast-q2-2021-revenue-finances-nbc-sky-peacock-subscribers


Imagine if Comcast just did a partnership with Sky NZ and not a full takeover!!

Just lol.

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Take it all over you mug!!!


It’s been 5 weeks since Jarden was brought in. We haven’t heard anything at all.

No deal is happening.

Vocus was their best option - and it seems they blew it.

[airedale]

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A quick google to find out more about Comcast brings up this. So what will SKT customers get if there is a merger/buy out or whatever.

[mistaTea]

More brilliant coverage of the Olympics by Sky Sport last night.

Just a real pity that Laurel’s snatch was no good in the end…

[peat]

Just a teal pity that Laurel’s snatch was no good in the end…

lol you shouldnt really get away with that, but its pretty funny.

[mistaTea]

lol you shouldnt really get away with that, but its pretty funny.

Look, I think we can all agree that Laurel's performance was an absolute...balls up.

[mistaTea]

Might have to top up on Sky if the SP keeps trending down...

[Snow Leopard]

Keep it clean, jerks.

SP surprisingly weak. I am considering investing a little more money in this.

[Getty]

Look, I think we can all agree that Laurel's performance was an absolute...balls up.

It was an all out performance.

There was nothing left to clean and jerk.

[mistaTea]

It was an all out performance.

There was nothing left to clean and jerk.

The second attempt looked legit.

If I didn't know any better, I would say that Laurel got...shafted.

[Getty]

The second attempt looked legit.

If I didn't know any better, I would say that Laurel got...shafted.

There was a cross over with the background music.https://youtu.be/AO43p2Wqc08

[mikelee]

Might have to top up on Sky if the SP keeps trending down...

Already topped up several time in the .16's since the SP is still pretty low, in my opinion. Glad I didn't have to average down from $1 or $2 like some unfortunate investors. I know how they feel though, been there done that. :t_down:

[Getty]

The second attempt looked legit.

If I didn't know any better, I would say that Laurel got...shafted.

Laurel didnt rise to the occasion, and Hardy was a no show...

[mistaTea]

grabbed another 80k shares...

[mistaTea]

Too much bro, too much...

https://i.imgur.com/Q5oPzFH.gif

2.65M shares now. If it stays low or drops further I might lift it to 2.7M.

[airedale]

Hopefully we will see Sophie and board members follow your lead.

[mistaTea]

Hopefully we will see Sophie and board members follow your lead.

Well, as at the last annual report:

Bowman had 500K shares
Mike Darcey had 1.5M shares
Geraldine had a whopping 88K shares
Keith had 215K shares
Joan Withers was yet to 'load up the truck'

Very little skin in the game (I own more shares than the entire Board combined). This has been an issue from the start though.

None of the 'transactions' that were presented to them have been brought to shareholders for consideration. I do scratch my head when I see them blocking deals, given they have hardly any skin in the game.

They balk at the notion of becoming a telco, yet we are still waiting to see what they will do with FCF do grow/diversify the business to a point that the market believes the business will be around longer than 5 years (and will therefore price it accordingly based on earning power).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well, as at the last annual report:

Bowman had 500K shares
Mike Darcey had 1.5M shares
Geraldine had a whopping 88K shares
Keith had 215K shares
Joan Withers was yet to 'load up the truck'

Very little skin in the game (I own more shares than the entire Board combined). This has been an issue from the start though.

None of the 'transactions' that were presented to them have been brought to shareholders for consideration. I do scratch my head when I see them blocking deals, given they have hardly any skin in the game.

They balk at the notion of becoming a telco, yet we are still waiting to see what they will do with FCF do grow/diversify the business to a point that the market believes the business will be around longer than 5 years (and will therefore price it accordingly based on earning power).

I actually find this rather concerning - it amplifies my belief that management (and the board) are heavily incentivised to favour remaining an independent entity (to protect their well compensated jobs) rather than to entertain a takeover offer which would be better for shareholders (but would make them all redundant)

[mistaTea]

I actually find this rather concerning - it amplifies my belief that management (and the board) are heavily incentivised to favour remaining an independent entity (to protect their well compensated jobs) rather than to entertain a takeover offer which would be better for shareholders (but would make them all redundant)

Yes, I think you are right. We cannot be 100% sure that all of their interests are aligned with ours.

Of the 'transactions' that have been presented to The Board...we can be fairly certain that Discovery and Vocus were part of that mix. Ogg seems to think Comcast are looking too...I don't think so, but he could be right.

Any one of the approaches would stand to be a major catalyst event for shareholders. I doubt that all of the approaches were 'obscenely low ball'. So for The Board (who basically own negligible sky shares) to just outright block these deals without bringing any of them to shareholders to vote on is baffling.

But as I say, it seems unlikely any deals are happening now - it does not take over 5 weeks to get a deal done. Either that or our Board are incredibly adept at keeping things quiet!

[winner69]

Just a thought


It’s possible that Directors with a vested interest will say when an (opportunistic/low ball) offer is made will think/say “yep, I’ll take the money and run” when a truly independent Director (one with no vested interest) will say “is in the best interests (long term) for shareholders”

Tough job being a Director

[mistaTea]

Just a thought


It’s possible that Directors with a vested interest will say when an (opportunistic/low ball) offer is made will think/say “yep, I’ll take the money and run” when a truly independent Director (one with no vested interest) will say “is in the best interests (long term) for shareholders”

Tough job being a Director

Possible.

But, in the end, I think it is generally better when The Board eat their own cooking.

[winner69]

Seems consensus on here is that finding somebody to put us all out of our misery is the best possible outcome ….and we want it to happen sooner than later

Is Sky really that bad?

[mistaTea]

Seems consensus on here is that finding somebody to put us all out of our misery is the best possible outcome ….and we want it to happen sooner than later

Is Sky really that bad?

Some would like to be put out of their misery by a takeover...and would settle for any number above their average purchase price (even if that represents a low value relative to EBITDA, FCF...however you like to define value).

Others I think are looking for what The Board are going to do to change the sentiment towards the business. So far, every move they have made (most needed and overdue imo) have met with declines in quoted value. And that seems to be because the market does not rate businesses that simply rent content for distribution anymore (regardless of how healthy the cashflows are). Sky is continually priced as though it will be bankrupt in 5 years time.

So we are eagerly awaiting some kind of 'catalyst' (not necessarily a takeover) to change Sky into a business that is seen as being more valuable. My vote is to become a telco (rationale given ad nauseum in previous posts).

If The Board don't like the idea of becoming a telco (because they view telcos as low margin, perhaps) then I am keen to understand what they are going to do with FCF. Is there something else we can buy?

If not, then what? Buyback? Divvy? That would give somewhat of a bump to SP...but does it ultimately serve long term owners if it means the underlying business does not change to ensure its longevity?

Not everyone wants a saviour to come and put a bullet in this 'dOgg'...

[mistaTea]

It's over bro!

Investors hate this stock more than the customers.

Time to pack up everything and say good bye!

Sh*t, I bet half the sophisticated investors would take 15c just to bail on this dog!

The worst thing that could happen is this company turning into a telco! Automatic death sentence!

No Divys or buybacks! Just CASH! ASAP!

I'M SO DONE!


Then why hasn’t anyone purchased sky yet?

And don’t say “because the Olympics are on”. What a joke.

[winner69]

I’d say the good guys at Jardens haven’t got much to work on at the moment …..and that’s assuming there actually some offers in the first place.

Been engaged to keep up to date with how SKY are going so they ready to ‘act’ if something comes up.

[mistaTea]

3 more weeks bro, 3 more weeks.



Hilarious. Why would a suitor wait 3 weeks again? There is something magical about making a bid on the same day as the financials are released?

The sooner you accept that no deal is happening the easier it will be for you to make a decision as to what to do with your shares.

You really did buy them for the wrong reasons I think.

[mistaTea]

You know what's hilarious...

-The CEO saying the stock is undervalued

-Then it fu*king drops another 10%!


https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

Everyone here better pray for a takeover.

The stocks going lower!



Well it’s about time you started pulling your weight.

Take Sophie out for dinner, get a few wines in her and then start ploughing for information…

[kevin]

Is this slightly interesting ?

Discovery, Inc. today announced that Rebecca Kent will transition from her role as joint General Manager of Australia and New Zealand to the newly created position of Senior Vice President, Transformation. Glen Kyne, who was appointed joint-lead for Australia and New Zealand alongside Kent following last year’s acquisition of MediaWorks TV, will solely lead the trans-Tasman business going forward as Senior Vice President, General Manager, Australia and New Zealand.


Kyne, who has extensive experience across the ANZ media and telco industries, has successfully co-led the integration and strategy of Discovery’s New Zealand operations since December 2020 and will oversee the ANZ business in its entirety as it leverages opportunities for growth.

[Sideshow Bob]

3 weeks until FY profit announcement.

Think they need to reintroduce dividend to prop up the share price.

[mistaTea]

3 weeks until FY profit announcement.

Think they need to reintroduce dividend to prop up the share price.

Yes they could do that.

But I don’t think they will. At the ID they gave no indication that they were considering returning excess cash to shareholders.

And to pay dividends now would mean that they don’t really believe in the growth story they gave.

They need to use FCF + leverage their clean balance sheet to buy something.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Only thing required here is patience.

Wonder how that property sale is going...

[RTM]

3 weeks until FY profit announcement.

Think they need to reintroduce dividend to prop up the share price.

Why do you think they care about the share price ? They need to run a successful business, get some decent results published, maybe return to paying a dividend and let the share price take care of itself. Turners needed to do exactly that and have. Look at the share price there. Thats what I am counting on.

[mistaTea]

They need to run a successful business,

Thats what I am counting on.

Amen brother

[mistaTea]

I think it was Mark Twain who pointed out that the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

It certainly feels that way with Sky TV sometimes!

At the previous AR, Sky had ~$120M cash. Subtract the $100M bonds and they were net cash $20M.

As of June 30 Sky was set to have produced FCF of ~$80M.

So the business probably has ~$100M of cash in the bank, and zero debt.

Quoted value is currently around $280M. If you subtract the cash position, the market is effectively saying that Sky’s operations are only worth $180M.

That is how severe the negative sentiment persists against Sky. It has not had any bearing to economic reality for a couple of years at least now.

So I am interested in the next AGM whereby management need to tell us how they are going to use the large cash position to transform the business in a way that will increase intrinsic value in an enduring way (in which case one would expect the market to reconsider its stance and lift quoted value).

[jimdog31]

who else wonders if derek is still hodling?

[jimdog31]

also, has Martin Stewart sold his 2,000,000 ? i cant see a notice

[mistaTea]

also, has Martin Stewart sold his 2,000,000 ? i cant see a notice

No market announcement is needed if MS sells his stock as he is no longer an insider.

[winner69]

Mistatea ....it was a guy john Maynard Keynes who said tjztbquote of yours

[mistaTea]

Mistatea ....it was a guy john Maynard Keynes who said tjztbquote of yours

Quite right! Thanks for the correction W69!

[flyer]

15.9c - RIP

[allfromacell]

I think it was Mark Twain who pointed out that the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

It certainly feels that way with Sky TV sometimes!

At the previous AR, Sky had ~$120M cash. Subtract the $100M bonds and they were net cash $20M.

As of June 30 Sky was set to have produced FCF of ~$80M.

So the business probably has ~$100M of cash in the bank, and zero debt.

Quoted value is currently around $280M. If you subtract the cash position, the market is effectively saying that Sky’s operations are only worth $180M.

That is how severe the negative sentiment persists against Sky. It has not had any bearing to economic reality for a couple of years at least now.

So I am interested in the next AGM whereby management need to tell us how they are going to use the large cash position to transform the business in a way that will increase intrinsic value in an enduring way (in which case one would expect the market to reconsider its stance and lift quoted value).

The only reason I can think of is FCF is going to be very low over the next few years and perhaps never reach 50m+ again? They have flagged the 'new normal' programming cost base is going to eat into a lot of it as is the 'investment for growth'. Programming costs especially for sport will continue to increase.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think it was Mark Twain who pointed out that the market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

It certainly feels that way with Sky TV sometimes!

At the previous AR, Sky had ~$120M cash. Subtract the $100M bonds and they were net cash $20M.

As of June 30 Sky was set to have produced FCF of ~$80M.

So the business probably has ~$100M of cash in the bank, and zero debt.

Quoted value is currently around $280M. If you subtract the cash position, the market is effectively saying that Sky’s operations are only worth $180M.

That is how severe the negative sentiment persists against Sky. It has not had any bearing to economic reality for a couple of years at least now.

So I am interested in the next AGM whereby management need to tell us how they are going to use the large cash position to transform the business in a way that will increase intrinsic value in an enduring way (in which case one would expect the market to reconsider its stance and lift quoted value).

The company did say at investor day that "Positive free cash flow generation, but at low levels, for next few years as we absorb "new normal" programming cost base and invest for growth"

They didn't describe what "new normal" level was - but emphasised the past year had large positive one off gains from lower programming costs (thanks to covid), OSB sale etc, and expenses have stepped up going forward thanks to broadband launch etc.

It was there own fault for not providing actual dollar estimates - and I think the market has responded by interpreting "low levels of free cashflow for the next few years" as a business running close to breakeven, even as some forward projections are somewhat optimistic.

[mistaTea]

The company did say at investor day that "Positive free cash flow generation, but at low levels, for next few years as we absorb "new normal" programming cost base and invest for growth"

They didn't describe what "new normal" level was - but emphasised the past year had large positive one off gains from lower programming costs (thanks to covid), OSB sale etc, and expenses have stepped up going forward thanks to broadband launch etc.

It was there own fault for not providing actual dollar estimates - and I think the market has responded by interpreting "low levels of free cashflow for the next few years" as a business running close to breakeven, even as some forward projections are somewhat optimistic.

Well, EBITDA could fall all the way to $110M (a drop of $70M from where it is now) before Sky would no longer be cashflow positive (and this is using the higher end of the CAPEX band).

As it is, sky is projected to produce FCF of $70M in FY21 based on the ID presso.

So by June 2022 Sky will have $170M sitting in the bank (unless they buy something) and zero debt.

We don’t know what FCF will drop to after that…but even if it halves, that is still another $35M a year added to the bank while they push through their higher-than-normal CAPEX for growth costs.

And don’t forget, the CFO pointed out that Sky’s stay in business CAPEX is only about $10M- $15M a year.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/market-close-unemployment-figures-give-nz-shares-a-boost/GCHZ2BCIIDACYZYRQSXFULYTRY/

Yeah we saw a real 'boost' today boys and girls!

https://media1.tenor.com/images/88a616c90140cf9840a6060ceee6106d/tenor.gif?itemid=15186318

If the price stays this low (or even better - drops further) I might not be able to help myself and scoop up some more...

I used to worry a bit about low market value for Sky because I thought it would increase the likelihood of an opportunistic takeover.

Definitely misplaced anxiety on my part for Sky - nobody wants to buy her thank God! And why would anyone? The Market thinks Sky will be bust in about 3 years or so...

So the further the SP drops the better (while I am still buying) :t_up:

[mistaTea]

If management do surprise us with a divvy (and there really is absolutely no reason to expect one right now, given they have not said they are planning any kind of capital return...)

But if they did...well, we expect there to be ~$100M of cash in the bank as of June 30.

They could pay $70M in divvy (4c/share) and still have $30M kicking around.

If they did a buyback with that $70M instead they could buy back 437.5M shares at the current SP. The SP would go up if they started buying back but I reckon they could still grab 400M (about 23% of the shares outstanding).

If there is no takeover, and if they are not going to buy any of the assets that are for sale *cough* Vocus! *cough*... then what is left for them to do?

It would seem unconscionable for The Board to sit on $100M of shareholder funds if they aren't going to deploy it in a meaningful way - especially given the business is only 'worth' $280M right now.

I am not predicting a buyback or divvy now (as I say, the board has not given us any reason to expect one from the comments they have made).

But I am very interested to know what they will do with the funds.

And of course, the property sale...that has gone awfully quiet which probably does not bode well...but if a sale is still done, that could further bolster cash reserves by $20M maybe.

FY21 FCF is projected to be $70M based in the ID presso. So even if they return $70M now, by June 2022 they could be sitting on as much as $120M.

And ​zero debt!