SKT Sky Network Television Limited. [Archive] - Page 38

LaserEyeKiwi

04-08-2021, 07:42 PM

If management do surprise us with a divvy (and there really is absolutely no reason to expect one right now, given they have not said they are planning any kind of capital return...)

But if they did...well, we expect there to be ~$100M of cash in the bank as of June 30.

They could pay $70M in divvy (4c/share) and still have $30M kicking around.

If they did a buyback with that $70M instead they could buy back 437.5M shares at the current SP. The SP would go up if they started buying back but I reckon they could still grab 400M (about 23% of the shares outstanding).

If there is no takeover, and if they are not going to buy any of the assets that are for sale *cough* Vocus! *cough*... then what is left for them to do?

It would seem unconscionable for The Board to sit on $100M of shareholder funds if they aren't going to deploy it in a meaningful way - especially given the business is only 'worth' $280M right now.

I am not predicting a buyback or divvy now (as I say, the board has not given us any reason to expect one from the comments they have made).

But I am very interested to know what they will do with the funds.

And of course, the property sale...that has gone awfully quiet which probably does not bode well...but if a sale is still done, that could further bolster cash reserves by $20M maybe.

FY21 FCF is projected to be $70M based in the ID presso. So even if they return $70M now, by June 2022 they could be sitting on as much as $120M.

And zero debt!

Wait - didn’t they say dividend will be reassessed in FY22? (which we are already in right now).

“The Board currently intends to reinvest available free cash flow during the remainder of FY21, and will re-evaluate the commencement of dividends after that”

mistaTea

04-08-2021, 07:51 PM

Wait - didn’t they say dividend will be reassessed in FY22? (which we are already in right now).

“The Board currently intends to reinvest available free cash flow during the remainder of FY21, and will re-evaluate the commencement of dividends after that”

Yeah reassessed…didn’t sound like a commitment - even though they know they are flush with cash.

I am still hopeful that a deal can be done and Vocus can be purchased for a reasonable price. As time goes on it seems less likely.

Divvy would be a last resort.

We will know one way or the other soon!

Fun to chat about it and speculate on the possibilities until then.

uravgtrader

04-08-2021, 10:05 PM

https://m.imgur.com/lrxwFQW

nztx

04-08-2021, 11:10 PM

$100m cash in the bank!

https://i.imgur.com/lrxwFQW.gif

Jesus Christ, you and Peter are both delusional when it comes to Sky's cash generation ability! No way is it going to have that much free cash flow.

Look, here's the situation bro, Sky's problem is the amount of expenses and capital that's required to run the business!

Media companies are like SaaS companies, there's a fixed amount of cost but every additional customer that comes on board is almost 100% profit once the bills have been paid!

Operating a media company in a small country like NZ is inefficient. That's why TV3 went under, and that's also why a takeover by an American conglomerate of Sky is almost assured to happen. This is the trend globally!

The good news is that Sky has great top line revenue and no debt. This means that equity holders should be rewarded with a decent pay out should a cash offer come forward.

The reason why there's no talk of a divy or buyback right now is because Sky is weighing up all the options. There's a lot on the table. Buying Vocus is an option but it's a risky option. Becoming a full fledged telco and competing with two large established players in a small market is not a smart move. At the very least this will required further capital investment and existing shareholders will be diluted out of any potential gains. Not to mention waiting a very long time for returns.

The best way forward is to leverage Sky's own strengths, which is it's satellite customers who pay a large monthly fee for what is mainly low cost repackaged content with the odd high cost sporting event. Sky needs to consolidate with a large market capitalized company that has access to global credit at a discounted rate. It then needs to merge into the Australian market (Foxtel) and form an NZ/AUS division. That's what Discovery/Warner is doing. The Chair understands all this bro. This is what's happening behinds the scenes. Doing divys and buybacks is just wasting time here.

The bottom line, is that the DEAL IS HAPPENING THIS MONTH. AUGUST IS DEAL MONTH. AUGUST IS WHEN OSB DEAL HAPPENED. AUGUSTS IS WHEN RUGBYPASS HAPPENED. AUGUST IS DEAL MONTH. IT WOULD HAVE HAPPENED LAST AUGUST BUT COVID HIT!

I added 100k shares today. I'll be buying more every time it goes down! I will also be dumping all my stock on the 25th if there's no deal! Clock is ticking! No bull**** slide 80 talk either! Has to be legit deal or I'm out and never posting here again!!

https://timer.getmara.com/ZGF0ZT0yMDIxLTA4LTI1JnRpbWU9MTAlM0EwMCZ0aW1lem9uZT 1QYWNpZmljJTJGQXVja2xhbmQmYmNrQ29sb3I9RkJGRjAwJmZv bnRDb2xvcj1GRjAwMDAmbGFiZWxDb2xvcj00NDQ0NDQmZGF5TG FiZWw9ZGF5cyZob3VyTGFiZWw9aG91cnMmbWluTGFiZWw9bWlu JnNlY0xhYmVsPXNlYw==.gif

Havent you posted the same intentions to sell & leave on here about a month or so ago - Ogg ? ;)

I seems to remember your posting before the SKY CEO had her Investor Day session

it must be quite a few pages back by now ..

maybe you just forgot you already posted it .. ?

https://m.imgur.com/lrxwFQW

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 05:36 AM

$100m cash in the bank!

Well, yeah…it’s just math isn’t it?

Earnings near top end guidance. Back of the envelope numbers:

$187.5 EBITDA - $32M lease costs - $50M CAPEX - $22.5M tax… should leave around $80M wouldn’t it? FCF will be a similar number.

They already had about $20M left over after paying the bonds back. So you add the two numbers together ‘bro’ and you get $100M (or thereabouts). If tax was higher than I allowed for maybe it’s $95M.

They haven’t bought anything, so why wouldn’t the cash balance have grown significantly?

And if there is a large pile of cash…they have to explain what they are going to do with it.

Your takeover talk is just hilarious. Funny that you think Comcast is coming to save your bacon. And you are buying even more shares! I expect your behaviour to become even more erratic this month as you increase your holding and struggle with the psychological pressure.

Nobody is buying sky - it would have happened a long time ago. But nobody is prepared to pay what the board expects - for that we should be thankful to our board. For not giving sky away.

Their best bet long term is a deal with Vocus I think. Sky have to diversify revenue streams and telco services complement their core offering. The Business Case is not complex!

But Vocus need to come down in price. Sky won’t do a $700M deal for Vocus.

LaserEyeKiwi

05-08-2021, 07:14 AM

Well, yeah…it’s just math isn’t it?

Earnings near top end guidance. Back of the envelope numbers:

$187.5 EBITDA - $32M lease costs - $50M CAPEX - $22.5M tax… should leave around $80M wouldn’t it? FCF will be a similar number.

They already had about $20M left over after paying the bonds back. So you add the two numbers together ‘bro’ and you get $100M (or thereabouts). If tax was higher than I allowed for maybe it’s $95M.

They haven’t bought anything, so why wouldn’t the cash balance have grown significantly?

And if there is a large pile of cash…they have to explain what they are going to do with it.

Your takeover talk is just hilarious. Funny that you think Comcast is coming to save your bacon. And you are buying even more shares! I expect your behaviour to become even more erratic this month as you increase your holding and struggle with the psychological pressure.

Nobody is buying sky - it would have happened a long time ago. But nobody is prepared to pay what the board expects - for that we should be thankful to our board. For not giving sky away.

Their best bet long term is a deal with Vocus I think. Sky have to diversify revenue streams and redo services complement their core offering. The Business Case is not complex!

But Vocus need to come down in price. Sky won’t do a $700M deal for Vocus.

If FCF was anywhere near what you are suggesting then Sky would be in the middle of a bidding war by multiple private equity firms.

But sky themselves guided to “low levels” of free cash flow going forward on investor day, so I think the likelihood of significant free cashflow anywhere near the level you are suggesting is unlikely.

Remember Sky is forecasting a big decrease in both EBITDA & net income for the 2nd half of the year, possibly a loss.

1st half figures:
EBITDA: $116.3 million
Net income: $39.6 million

Full year guidance:
EBITDA: $170-$182.5 million
Net income: $37.5-$45 million

Implied 2nd half earnings:
EBITDA: $53.7 - $66.2 million
Net income: -$2.1 million to +$5.4million

(I remain a bit confused in the discrepancy between EBITDA and net profit given the guided capex spend, unless it telegraphs a big “D&A” event)

Also remember they said EBITDA will “reset” in FY22 to a lower level absent the one off positive impacts present in FY21, and also due to the “new normal” cost structure.

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 07:19 AM

If FCF was anywhere near what you are suggesting then Sky would be in the middle of a bidding war by multiple private equity firms.

But sky themselves guided to “low levels” of free cash flow on investor day, so I think the likelihood of significant free cashflow anywhere near the level you are suggesting is unlikely.

Remember Sky is forecasting a big decrease in both EBITDA & net income for the 2nd half of the year, possibly a loss.

1st half figures:
EBITDA: $116.3 million
Net income: $39.6 million

Full year guidance:
EBITDA: $170-$182.5 million
Net income: $37.5-$45 million

Implied 2nd half earnings:
EBITDA: $53.7 - $66.2 million
Net income: -$2.1 million to +$5.4million

Also remember they said EBIDTA will “reset” in FY22 to a lower level absent the one off positive impacts present in FY21, and also due to the “new normal” cost structure.

Their projections for lower FCF is for future financial years.

FY21 has been and gone (along with all the cash generated).

Go back to my previous post and look again at the calculation I did.

If you think about it a bit more I think you will agree with me - because you are smart and I am right.

LaserEyeKiwi

05-08-2021, 07:25 AM

Their projections for lower FCF is for future financial years.

FY21 has been and gone (along with all the cash generated).

Go back to my previous post and look again at the calculation I did.

If you think about it a bit more I think you will agree with me - because you are smart and I am right.

How do you account for guidance of -$2.1 million to +$5.4 million net income in 2H, while at the same time adding $80 million in cash, purely from operations. Not saying that isn’t impossible, but it requires an explanation about how that can be realistically achieved.

EDIT: wait I think your error is that you are using full year EBITDA for the 6 month period. Or are we talking past each other - are you talking about June 30 2021 or June 30 2022?

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 07:27 AM

How do you account for guidance of -$2.1 million to +$5.4 million net income in 2H, while at the same time adding $80 million in cash, purely from operations. It saying that isn’t impossible, but it requires an explanation about how that can be realistically achieved.

Don’t look at profit. Sky’s profit bears no resemblance to FCF because they have a large depreciation charge that bears no resemblance to actual CAPEX spend.

You have to start with EBITDA and work backwards.

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 07:46 AM

Snow Leopard

05-08-2021, 09:07 AM

As the SP not so slowly sinks the Snow Leopard patiently waits to pounce.

Will he time it correctly?

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 09:21 AM

How do you account for guidance of -$2.1 million to +$5.4 million net income in 2H, while at the same time adding $80 million in cash, purely from operations. Not saying that isn’t impossible, but it requires an explanation about how that can be realistically achieved.

EDIT: wait I think your error is that you are using full year EBITDA for the 6 month period. Or are we talking past each other - are you talking about June 30 2021 or June 30 2022?

Ok, I went back over the presso to look for cashflow movement discrepencies.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/368002/340884.pdf

Slide 26 shows that cash balance only increased by ~13M despite strong operating performance because of a $39M WC adjustment. The explanation given was "This is after adjusting for working capital, which increased by$39m in the period as we had inflated cash and payables balances at June 2020 (due to ongoing sport equitable reduction negotiations at that time) returned to normal levels during the period"

So it will be interesting to see how this WC adjustment washes up in the FY results since the equitable reduction negotiations were finished early this year.

FCF has historically resembled Owner Earnings for Sky. This relationship is changing now that they have written off a lot of goodwill and are downsizing the business to be more lean...and there are also timing issues around when cash is actually received.

So let's see. One way or the other, I expect Sky's cash balance to have increased considerably based on the numbers they have provided.

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 11:51 AM

Ogg speculates they'll have about $50m cash

Minumum... if the washup to the $39M WC hit does not change significantly after the final content cost reduction is taken into account.

plus $20m give or take for the buildings.

Maybe in the next interim results, if indeed the buildings sale goes ahead.

silu

05-08-2021, 11:52 AM

https://i.imgur.com/gKSBXSW.gif
Am I the only one buying this piece of sh*t stock?

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

I found my old bosses statement in the printer. He has shares in the millions. Made my eyes water.

winner69

05-08-2021, 12:33 PM

I'm a bit puzzled with H1 financials

How did $116m ebitda only end up as $12m cashfow when capex was only $20m

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 01:47 PM

I'm a bit puzzled with H1 financials

How did $116m ebitda only end up as $12m cashfow when capex was only $20m

Due to an extra $39M they had to pony up for content costs in June 2020 while the remainder of equitable reductions was negotiated.

A timing issue I think.

Monarch

05-08-2021, 07:51 PM

Have they said how much they are committing to the new set top box? Surely it can't be more than 15 million. I hope they make it extremely easy to use, with an intuitive interface and simple set up process. I think many of the current customers, stay because its easy, because sky just works, because Netflix etc are new and inconvenient to learn (and because they can afford to). If we can expand that group of customers, this ship might just stop sinking. They need to cater to the aging population, that's where the money is and they are the group most likely to appreciate sky's offering.

I bought into this hoping for dividends or buybacks, now I'm regretful I didn't sell at the lofty heights of 18 cents. I'll definitely reduce my holding if they don't give us something at the FY, or an extremely good reason for not doing so.

mistaTea

05-08-2021, 07:54 PM

nztx

05-08-2021, 08:05 PM

https://i.imgur.com/gKSBXSW.gif
Am I the only one buying this piece of sh*t stock?

https://i.imgur.com/iMBfbPZ.gif

You must just about have enough to mount a takeover all on your ownsome - Ogg ;)

I think someone further up is complaining at the odd fractions with your large big spend up .. :)

mistaTea

07-08-2021, 04:19 PM

Good news for Foxtel - primarily driven by streaming success.

https://www.channelnews.com.au/foxtels-kayo-and-binge-drive-news-corps-best-results-in-years/

Alpha

09-08-2021, 12:14 PM

Update re sale of property on asx

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02404952-2A1314548?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

mistaTea

09-08-2021, 01:29 PM

Studio leaseback provisions will be a stop-gap measure...looks to me like Sky are planning on moving HQ and won't need a sprawling estate.

Selling the entire land package removes the cross-lease problem and will maximise the amount of money they can get.

Will be interesting to see if there is any media speculation as to what the entire package would likely be worth.

Dlownz

09-08-2021, 01:53 PM

[QUOTE=Ogg;898959]I upped my order to asking price.

Always seem to be buying Ogg. Do you have a endless amount of money or do you have other shares your selling to buy more sky
Out of interest if you are buying what are you sitting at now holding wise. Must be about to disclose your a 5% holder 😂
I wish I'd sold out out sooner luckily I didn't sell now. Anyway onwards and upwards. Warehouse is proving much more lucrative

clown

09-08-2021, 02:04 PM

[QUOTE=Dlownz;898961]

I don't have as much as MT. I'm too erratic when it comes to investing.

I have more to invest but I've lost patience with this company! Like I said, I'm selling at FY unless there's a takeover or major deal!

Hey Ogg, are you in the Green or Red at the moment?

clown

09-08-2021, 02:57 PM

[QUOTE=clown;898973]

I'm in the green but not by much. I have traded it a bit over the year. Was up heaps but then bought a bunch over 17.

Just need a takeover to get me home!

Thanks. Yeah I traded this one a bit too. My last block is @$0.17

The diver

09-08-2021, 03:29 PM

These were my best sells

https://imgur.com/a/CMIdEuF

mistaTea

09-08-2021, 03:52 PM

These were my best sells

https://imgur.com/a/CMIdEuF

You don’t make money when you buy.

You don’t make money when you sell.

You make money when you…wait.

mistaTea

09-08-2021, 04:36 PM

Between the campus sale and anticipated cash balance at the FY results, Sky should soon have ~$150M in the bank I reckon.

Ideally they would use that money to acquire something complimentary to their core business to ensure the company continues meaningful growth…

But if that is not possible, they could take $100M of it for a buyback program and still have plenty of cash in the bank for growth/enhance initiatives (plus untapped $200M debt facility).

At the current SP they could buy back ~36% of the shares.

SP would lift somewhat if management started buying back stock…but even if prices inflate they could still easily buy 30% back.

Long term shareholders then benefit in future years with fatter dividends.

LaserEyeKiwi

09-08-2021, 08:20 PM

Hold up - so sky are selling studio one now as well? Wow. Full on continuation of asset liquidations continues. The amount of cash to be sitting on the books soon is significant (approaching 1/3 of current market cap post sale potentially). Also will make a debt-fueled management buyout easier if it’s on the cards.

mistaTea

09-08-2021, 08:32 PM

Also will make a debt-fueled management buyout easier if it’s on the cards.

I think that if there is one thing we know for sure by now it’s that management have no interest whatsoever owning any of Sky!

The entire property will probably go for around $90M. They will soon have $150M+ of cash sitting in the bank.

What are managements plans for the cash? Ideally it could be deployed for meaningful growth.

Let’s see. Only two weeks until the results now.

JohnnyTheHorse

10-08-2021, 07:42 AM

Very good chance that we will see a sale of the entire plot, with a short term lease on the current building whilst the rest is demolished for residential development. This would result in a sale price much much higher than book value I believe.

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 07:45 AM

mikelee

10-08-2021, 07:48 AM

It's nice to have these one off gains, but I'm more interested to see the business doing well ie. generating good cash flows annually, otherwise the SP is not likely to move up by much.

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 08:27 AM

One thing for sure is that the buildings have been sold as the listing haven't been updated.

You don't change your mind 5 months into a sales campaign and then give 2 weeks notice of a sale of twice the original value.

It's obvious one of the buyers has come along and seen the potential for a major development opportunity and has offered a huge premium for all 3 lots.

Yes, you are very likely correct on this point. A developer possibly said "Look, we will give you $X for the lot you have listed...but we actually want the whole campus, and if you sell it to us we will give you $2.5X for it all".

The long term development potential for commercial and residential is huge - and blocks of land this size with that kind of proximity to the city never come up anymore.

Sky is going to get paid a lot of money.

Studio One is critical to their business. It's their HQ. They've had it almost their entire history. Sky doesn't need the money either and the asset will only increase in value so it's illogical to sell it now unless something "material" is about to happen.

If Comcast is buying the business they probably wouldn't want the site. Just like Discovery didn't want the Mediaworks building. There will be a major restucture after a buyout and a likely downsize as most operations can be done offshore.

The sales agreement will be finalised before FY results. Jarden has had 5 weeks (probably longer as they were likely hired before announcement) to iron out a deal. With the shareprice in the toilet and going DOWN after the investor day, management will be under huge pressure to deliver something substantial. Just lol if they plan on showing their faces again at the AGM. No bullsh*t zoom meeting either as there's no covid so they're going to have to show up in person and be drilled hard by angry shareholders!

Not long to wait now folks!

Then you enter this crazy La La Land. If they were selling the campus because Comcast are going to buy them and won't want the land/buildings there would be a disclosure to the market.

Six weeks since Jarden got involved and nothing - for the last time, a takeover is incredibly unlikely now!

You also need to remember, Studio One contains a huge amount of tech. I mean MASSIVE amounts...this is why they have put lease back provisions. They will be moving somewhere else more fit for purpose to their 'capital light' model. But until they confirm where that is, they need to stay put.

And I am confident that they are moving now that they are selling the whole campus...because a developer wouldn't want them stinking up the joint long term. They will be ok with some income from Sky for a short period, but then they will want them out so they can get on with developing the land.

LaserEyeKiwi

10-08-2021, 08:37 AM

The stock price is down 20% since investor day. I would say a takeover is much more likely now than it was 6 weeks ago.

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 09:18 AM

The stock price is down 20% since investor day. I would say a takeover is much more likely now than it was 6 weeks ago.

I would say say that the lower SP means that interest from a third party in a takeover becomes more likely.

But the takeover itself does not become more likely. And the reason is that nobody is going to offer a price anywhere near what the board will accept.

And think about it...Sky will have $150M+ sitting in the bank by the end of the year once the property has sold. The quoted value for the entire business is only $280M - A third party would probably only offer $400M for the whole business now (23c/share).

Well, Sky will have ~40% of that offer price just in cash - and zero debt. So shareholders would effectively be selling the operations for $240M (not a lot of money for a company with 1M subs and FCF that will still be in the tens of millions each year even while they invest...)

I appreciate that Ogg would see any price above his average buy in as 'wonderful' because he just wants out now and has made a bit of a fool out of himself for the past 18 months predicting various takeovers and events.

But the long term investors and business owners...why would they want to sell out for so little now when Sky is about the be flush with cash and will have a lot of options moving forward?

Worst case is buybacks and dividends. Best case is they are able to use it for meaningful growth (possibly by making an acquisition of a business with a service that complements Sky's core offer).

Six weeks since Jarden got involved. Six weeks. And we have heard nothing. Whatever 'transaction' discussions have been had - it seems clear to me that The Board have rejected any proposals given (if, indeed, any formal proposals were given at all).

nztx

10-08-2021, 11:19 AM

Ogg might have make friends with the Lady CEO (again) to see if she has future plans for a little Divvie on the
extended stay, if no Take Out or Buy the Sky occurs .. ;)

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 12:42 PM

So there is one other possibility I can see for the cash generated from the sale of the Mt Wellington campus.

A Capital Return to shareholders whereby Sky are able to make a one-off payment to shareholders and it is tax free (unlike a dividend).

NZO did this back in 2017 when they sold Kupe to Genesis Energy (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/300471). Because the funds come from the sale of an asset (and not cashflow from operations) there are allowances with IRD to distribute those funds to the owners without the Tax Man clipping the ticket.

Let's use round numbers and say that Sky have $100M after the campus sale that could be used for a Capital Return. There are currently 1,746,879,558 shares outstanding.

If they cancelled 1 share for every 2 shares held by shareholders they would cancel 873,439,779 shares. Shareholders would receive a one-off tax free payment of 11.45c/share ($100M/873.44M shares).

Existing shareholders still own the exact same % of the business as they did before - they just own half the number of shares they did before the CR and Sky have half the number of shares outstanding.

So I now think there are four options for the Board to consider. And my order of preference is as follows:

Use the money to invest wisely and grow the business in a meaningful way. Secure the long term future of Sky by investing aggressively and diversifying revenue streams - most likely by acquiring another business that has a service which complements our Core Competency.
Share Buyback - rewards long term shareholders by increasing their % ownership of the business.
Capital Return - a one-off generous tax free payment to shareholders who can then invest that money as they see fit.
Dividend. Christ I hate dividends - but only accept them reluctantly when all other options have been exhausted and there is no other rational way for the business to use/deploy the money.

LaserEyeKiwi

10-08-2021, 02:58 PM

You know one of the biggest impediments to a new supermarket player entering New Zealand is the lack of big parcels of available land in established suburbs. Also, big box retailers (and people who lease buildings to big box retailers) would love this location.

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 03:33 PM

Is this going to be your bs excuse for why you don’t sell in two weeks Ogg?

Property sale has “changed the equation” I suppose?

What a joke.

Meh

10-08-2021, 04:03 PM

They should totally become a retirement village. Thry can also price sky into their services.

mistaTea

10-08-2021, 04:30 PM

I remember months back when I said their entire property portfolio was probably worth ~$100M and Ogg was doing his silly cage gifs and laughing at me for my “wishful thinking”. Rose tinted glasses etc.

And now get a load of this goon! I mean guy!

nztx

10-08-2021, 05:21 PM

Hey Ogg (good mate) - the multibaggers are way over there ------------------------------------------------------------>

you just need to know where to find them .. ;)

LaserEyeKiwi

10-08-2021, 05:23 PM

I’m a bit annoyed they paid off the $100 million bonds with cash now. If they had instead rolled it with a new bond offering (while interest rates were at historic lows) then they would be looking to have closer to $200 million cash on hand after the property sale (net cash amount would be about the same, but there is a big difference in optionality between the two scenarios)

Alpha

10-08-2021, 07:27 PM

Get on the ASX,NYSE etc heck even Crypto if you want Multibaggers.

nztx

10-08-2021, 07:33 PM

Get on the ASX,NYSE etc heck even Crypto if you want Multibaggers.

indeed .. other markets in places make NZX look rather tame & subdued, but can very easily head the other way for the unwary too ;)

LaserEyeKiwi

10-08-2021, 07:35 PM

Get on the ASX,NYSE etc heck even Crypto if you want Multibaggers.

Thanks for the non-sequitur

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 08:58 AM

LaserEyeKiwi

11-08-2021, 09:04 AM

bottomfeeder

11-08-2021, 09:09 AM

LaserEyeKiwi

11-08-2021, 09:09 AM

What is this rumor of an “acquisition of NZME” you mention on hotcopper ?

12829

Sideshow Bob

11-08-2021, 09:10 AM

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/231241

According this this, one outfit offered Sky a takeover offer of 10c/share...

Can't say I have ever heard of a takeover attempt where the offer price is less than the market price!

It wasn't Bernard Whimp again up to his old tricks.....??

Whimp defends 'low ball' share offers after backing off lawsuit against Vector | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111424085/whimp-defends-low-ball-share-offers-after-backing-off-lawsuit-against-vector)

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 09:12 AM

What is this rumor of an “acquisition of NZME” you mention on hotcopper ?

12829

Just scuttlebutt. All I know for sure is Sky will have a lot of cash soon...waiting to hear from them (like everyone) about what they intend to do with it all.

Not sure if buying an asset like NZME has merit. I need to do more reading/thinking.

One thing I do know is that NZME is similar to Sky in that the business generates a lot of FCF (relative to the GAAP earnings they post). It would certainly be more affordable than Vocus - but just scuttlebutt as I say.

Wouldn't read too much into it.

JohnnyTheHorse

11-08-2021, 09:14 AM

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 09:18 AM

A really good summary article of where things are at. Comments around Comcast making an offer 18 months ago, with further deals put together recently with PE partners. Just a matter of time imo.

Also a comment that property could be valued at up to $90m.

Yes agreed it is a good summary of the situation.

And I think it is healthy for Sky to have hard questions posed from an experienced journalist. Not like those lame questions they got from Arie and Brian at the ID. That was just embarassing.

I am sure Dita will be watching the FY results announcement with a keen interest, and no doubt there will be some follow up stories.

We definitely don't want The Board to rush into anything and take any silly old deal...but at the same time we expect more clarity as to what their intentions are. They have to pull finger.

JohnnyTheHorse

11-08-2021, 09:24 AM

Yes agreed it is a good summary of the situation.

And I think it is healthy for Sky to have hard questions posed from an experienced journalist. Not like those lame questions they got from Arie and Brian at the ID. That was just embarassing.

I am sure Dita will be watching the FY results announcement with a keen interest, and no doubt there will be some follow up stories.

We definitely don't want The Board to rush into anything and take any silly old deal...but at the same time we expect more clarity as to what their intentions are. They have to pull finger.

Precisely. My view is that the board are trying to maximise shareholder value (i.e do their job right) and holding off previous deals has been the right thing to do. I see the sale of all three properties as a smart way to extract far greater value from those assets that wouldn't be correctly recognised in a potential takeover.

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 09:27 AM

Precisely. My view is that the board are trying to maximise shareholder value (i.e do their job right) and holding off previous deals has been the right thing to do. I see the sale of all three properties as a smart way to extract far greater value from those assets that wouldn't be correctly recognised in a potential takeover.

Yes 100% correct. The market cap of $280M is a PE of about 7. But does not take into account the incredible $ value of assets Sky have. In addition to property Sky have a HUGE amount of tech.

So when the sale is complete and they have $150M+ of cash on the balance sheet...that will give Sky many more options and one would hope the market would include that in their assessment of Sky's value.

LaserEyeKiwi

11-08-2021, 09:56 AM

A really good summary article of where things are at. Comments around Comcast making an offer 18 months ago, with further deals put together recently with PE partners. Just a matter of time imo.

Also a comment that property could be valued at up to $90m.

wait - Comcast made an offer 18 months ago??? And Sky didn’t advise the market?? Seems like extremely dodgy behavior. That would have been before the large capital raise took place which tanked the share price.

also - yes I had assumed Private equity would be sniffing around - entirely plausible then that a takeover offer is still on the table given current share price.

I think there may be some sort of shareholder actions in the works if management fail to bring these offers to the shareholders for consideration. There must be some NZX rules that prohibit offers from being hidden from shareholders if they are above the current share price.

Baa_Baa

11-08-2021, 10:58 AM

wait - Comcast made an offer 18 months ago??? And Sky didn’t advise the market?? Seems like extremely dodgy behavior.

Is an 'offer' the same as a 'take over notice' (https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/117005/718642/MK_CorporateGovernance_TakeoverProtocol.pdf/3a86e4ac-05a5-434f-8985-d7c9ea4f5281?t=1602032410558)?

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 11:33 AM

wait - Comcast made an offer 18 months ago??? And Sky didn’t advise the market?? Seems like extremely dodgy behavior. That would have been before the large capital raise took place which tanked the share price.

also - yes I had assumed Private equity would be sniffing around - entirely plausible then that a takeover offer is still on the table given current share price.

I think there may be some sort of shareholder actions in the works if management fail to bring these offers to the shareholders for consideration. There must be some NZX rules that prohibit offers from being hidden from shareholders if they are above the current share price.

It looks like Comcast and PE have made various "approaches" over the last 18 months. We don't actually know what those approaches were (it is just assumed on this forum that all of them must have been takeovers. But that is a huge assumption).

The Board are not compelled to come running to shareholders every time any Tom, Dick or Harry make an unsolicited (and highly conditional) 'offer'. They do have leeway to assess whether or not the offer has any merit and is in the best interest of shareholders.

If they conclude that it is not in the best interest of shareholders they can reject the offer and nothing further happens.

In fact, even if the offer seems 'reasonable' and the board invite the suitor to more talks they still do not have to tell investors I don't believe.

If those talks progress to a point at a firm offer (that commits to an agreed price and only has the standard shareholder approval + regulatory conditions) is made, then the Board are required to alert the market.

I am sure there are some grey areas I have glossed over, but in principal I think that sums it up. Unless and until a binding offer is made (that the board can support) I don't believe they need to tell the market.

If a suitor gets no joy from the board and launch a hostile takeover then that is as a different story. But that doesn't really happen - deals are usually friendly as the Board's support is key to getting any deal over the line.

jimdog31

11-08-2021, 11:43 AM

10 cents is a fair offer.

The board should have taken it.

For the land and buildings Id agree with your sentiment - not for the whole company lol

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 12:05 PM

Tested the new Sky Set Top Box today.

New box looks very good. Not Nvidia Shield (as was reported in an article a while back) but is an Android Box.

Modern NETFLIX-style UI...and has an OnDemand focus, with linear viewing as a secondary option. Satellite + Streaming so arguably has the best of both worlds. Had a good robust conversation with the chap who was taking me through it and I was satisfied that Sky are on the right track with their plans in this area (new STB for retention, plans for standlone app for growth, changes to bundles etc).

The Android search capability is very good (as you would expect from Google). There are limitations on how much content from other OTT providers they can surface (due to restrictions made by the OTT owners, like NETFLIX). However, if you search for a show or actor etc on the new STB...it will search across Sky content and any services you subscribe to (NETFLIX, Amazon, Disney etc) to show you where you can find it. I think that is going to be a very helpful feature.

The addition of User Profiles is going to be very useful to.

I put my critic hat on and was pretty frank in my observations, but overall I think it will be good as part of the retention strategy.

Entrep

11-08-2021, 02:26 PM

How do I get one of these new boxes to test?

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 02:31 PM

How do I get one of these new boxes to test?

I was invited as part of being on Sky Nation.

Just went to do some testing, look at other prototypes and give feedback, answer questions etc.

New STB will be released to Sky staff early next year. Followed soon by some Sky customers for final testing (I have requested to be part of this group). And then the wider rollout (2nd quarter of next year).

airedale

11-08-2021, 02:39 PM

I was invited as part of being on Sky Nation.

Just went to do some testing, look at other prototypes and give feedback, answer questions etc.

New STB will be released to Sky staff early next year. Followed soon by some Sky customers for final testing (I have requested to be part of this group). And then the wider rollout (2nd quarter of next year).
Did they install it in your house?

mistaTea

11-08-2021, 02:43 PM

Did they install it in your house?

No I met them at an office in Auckland CBD where they had all of the tech set up.

Alpha

11-08-2021, 06:41 PM

It does look like it is all but happening. Hopefully not another Infratil type playout....

Good find Ogg - how you have time to search all the time is crazy but I do appreciate it.

Who was the international Comcast person that you found... Have you been waiting at the airport or tracking any corp sort of arrivals. I assume any deal would be done in person rather than on Zoom but we now live in a Covid world and Sky is chump change to these sort of players.

Entrep

11-08-2021, 06:43 PM

Crikey Ogg, you crazy genius

allfromacell

11-08-2021, 06:56 PM

Well better buy my shares back tomorrow morning

DownTownJr

11-08-2021, 07:07 PM

Well good thing I purchased a few more shares this morning. Let's see what is to come of this.

airedale

11-08-2021, 08:32 PM

It was filed on the 30th June. Did no one else see it in the last 7 weeks ?

Monarch

11-08-2021, 09:26 PM

cmon guys where is the hype? WE ARE GONNA BE RICH!!!

errornz

12-08-2021, 02:52 AM

Someone start flooding the sharesies FB group with this hypothesis.

sb9

12-08-2021, 08:56 AM

Looks like some intense opening bids going on there..

Alpha

12-08-2021, 11:24 AM

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02406290-2A1315214?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a 39ff4

Entrep

12-08-2021, 01:35 PM

I'm officially a shareholder as of today.

Now can we get 5% of the total shareholders together to put forward a vote to pivot into a property development and retirement village company?

Dlownz

12-08-2021, 02:37 PM

So. Rugby pass can sell their shares now. 25mill with. Wonder if they will start selling.

JohnnyTheHorse

12-08-2021, 03:29 PM

Someone just turned the gas on (both ASX and NZX).

allfromacell

12-08-2021, 03:35 PM

Back in with half my original stake, if there is no takeover come results and or more talk of low cash flows / no dividends I'll actually be selling the lot unlike Ogg :P.

winner69

13-08-2021, 01:22 PM

MediaWorks Chair resigns because of ‘toxic’ culture

Wonder how deep the bad culture at Sky is and if any heads will roll

mikelee

13-08-2021, 02:17 PM

I wonder if the toxic culture was an import from the new CEO :p

airedale

13-08-2021, 03:48 PM

MediaWorks Chair resigns because of ‘toxic’ culture

Wonder how deep the bad culture at Sky is and if any heads will roll

I am sure that if there is any toxic culture our Ogg will expose it for us.:) with a suitable gif ? or is it a meme?

Alpha

13-08-2021, 04:39 PM

It is being capped at 0.16 I not think we will see this fly. The offer must be around .20/.30

Once we know that if true then this will jump to that price. Like most takeovers/ mergers.

ratkin

14-08-2021, 03:07 PM

What has happened to this thread, has it been overtaken by children? Can you sort them out Vince, all these silly gifs etc do not belong on this site.

Baa_Baa

14-08-2021, 03:16 PM

What has happened to this thread, has it been overtaken by children? Can you sort them out Vince, all these silly gifs etc do not belong on this site.

It's gone to the doggs

Monarch

14-08-2021, 03:23 PM

What has happened to this thread, has it been overtaken by children? Can you sort them out Vince, all these silly gifs etc do not belong on this site.

There is nothing serious left to discuss. Every thought and investment thesis possible has been posted in the last few months, now is the time for hope, prayer and wild speculation as we approach the full year results.

mistaTea

15-08-2021, 10:22 AM

Had a bit more back and forth via email with the chap who showcased the new STB to me.

The new box primarily focussed with NETFLIX-style OnDemand...it will have User Profiles and also the ability to customise your Home Page to make it either sport or entertainment focussed.

It does still cater for linear TV though, and has access to the TV guide where you can channel surf, record programs etc (new box will have 4x storage space than the standard MySky box).

So I got to thinking, if we want the best of both worlds why not introduce OnDemand elements there too? So if I can see a show I want to watch is on in an hour, why should I have to record it and watch it later? Why couldn't I just watch it now? The only time this would not work would be if it is a premier and Sky only have the rights to show it at a specific time (like when new episodes of GoT were released...). But apart from that, all other content could be consumed right away.

Or if a show is part way through that I like, why could I not have an option to start from the beginning or watch 'live'?

So I went back to the guy thinking I was a genius...AAAAANNNND...

Turns out the boys and girls at Sky already thought about all of this. This is exactly how the new TV guide will work. And in that sense, I think they really are developing a STB that does have the best of both worlds.

I have been very sceptical about the need to spend money on a new box, and still believe that the future of growth will be from streaming apps (including a more comprehensive SKY TV app that has their bundles). At the same time I am very impressed with this box, and I think the targets they put for 'new box' subs by 2024 (100K I think?) is very conservative. A lot more existing subs will transfer over I reckon, and the new box could be appealing to more new customers than I gave it credit for.

ratkin

15-08-2021, 10:56 AM

I have been very sceptical about the need to spend money on a new box, and still believe that the future of growth will be from streaming apps (including a more comprehensive SKY TV app that has their bundles). At the same time I am very impressed with this box, and I think the targets they put for 'new box' subs by 2024 (100K I think?) is very conservative. A lot more existing subs will transfer over I reckon, and the new box could be appealing to more new customers than I gave it credit for.

I phoned up to cancel my Sky the other day, the last straw was losing the champions league to spark sport, so anyway, I get through, and am immediately offered a 25% discount for the next Twelve Months, I was still saying I wanted to go, and the woman on the other end started saying there were some very exciting developments happening soon. In the end she persuaded me to just lose sport and Soho. With the 25% reduction am now only giving sky 35 a month instead of 85.
Remains to be seen what these exciting developments are, as she would not elaborate, probably this box you speak of.

mistaTea

15-08-2021, 10:59 AM

I phoned up to cancel my Sky the other day, the last straw was losing the champions league to spark sport, so anyway, I get through, and am immediately offered a 25% discount for the next Twelve Months, I was still saying I wanted to go, and the woman on the other end started saying there were some very exciting developments happening soon. In the end she persuaded me to just lose sport and Soho. With the 25% reduction am now only giving sky 35 a month instead of 85.
Remains to be seen what these exciting developments are, as she would not elaborate, probably this box you speak of.

They are also working on a major overhaul of their bundles and pricing according to the guy I looked at the new STB with.

He is a consultant to Sky and is working with then on both the box and a wider piece on packages and pricing. Will include bundles with NETFLIX etc.

Watch this space.

John_Pinnacle

15-08-2021, 05:01 PM

Login to each service must be super easy. It's one of my angry face moments when I'm force to login again on a service, from which I have completely forgotten the blinking password. Freeview twice, TVNZ a number of times, and Three Now as well. Oh and also Netflix twice come to think of it. It would be so much easier with one Sky login... Hey does the new remote have a mini keyboard?? And can it play games.... Dam that would be next gen if they signed up a game streaming service too, with that shiny new UFB service. This is currently not available in NZ.

mistaTea

15-08-2021, 05:08 PM

No keyboard on remote. That kind of feature only works well when you have an app and your smartphone effectively becomes the remote.

They do have a button that activates voice search though. And, being Google, the voice search works well.

The cross-platform search will be handy on the new STB whereby you can execute a search and it will tell you where you can find it (Sky, Netflix, Disney etc).

uravgtrader

15-08-2021, 05:13 PM

Did Ogg get banned again? Or did he volunteer to leave the forum finally lol.

winner69

15-08-2021, 05:22 PM

Seems ratkin got his wish and all of ogg’s posts have disappeared into thin year

The diver

15-08-2021, 08:31 PM

Seems he’s not the only one:

https://imgur.com/a/zoFHwi4

https://imgur.com/a/rGXtLAy

https://imgur.com/a/LBYyDlm

Snoopy

15-08-2021, 09:01 PM

Seems ratkin got his wish and all of ogg’s posts have disappeared into thin year

The lawsuit from Nicolas Cage finally landed on Vince's desk? Or did Sky complain that they were losing too many subscriptions to those subscribed to this alternative channel for 'entertainment value'? I must admit Ogg's post were all of crazy, irrelevant, irreverent and occasionally brilliant. But always entertaining. An antidote to the seriousness of the forum in other places. I do hope Ogg eventually does OK out of his SKT shares!

SNOOPY

P.S. I don't think I will ever be able to watch a Nicolas Cage film again without anticipating he will break out into laughter at any minute!

RTM

15-08-2021, 09:38 PM

The lawsuit from Nicolas Cage finally landed on Vince's desk? Or did Sky complain that they were losing too many subscriptions to those subscribed to this alternative channel for 'entertainment value'? I must admit Ogg's post were all of crazy, irrelevant and occasionally brilliant. But always entertaining. An antidote to the seriousness of the forum in other places. I do hope Ogg eventually does OK out of his SKT shares!

SNOOPY

P.S. I don't think I will ever be able to watch a Nicolas Cage film again without anticipating he will break out into laughter at any minute!

Yes, it’s a shame. I might have to restart my SKY Subscription now this channel has gone.
On a more serious note, feels a little like censorship. Not great at all.

mistaTea

16-08-2021, 06:08 AM

On a more serious note, feels a little like censorship. Not great at all.

It’s a breath of fresh air. Less crazy energy and hopefully will go back to people being able to discuss the business and not focus on whack job conspiracy theories and predictions.

The Admins have to uphold their T’s & C’s and you can’t have a panicked speculator blatantly trying to pump and dump on their platform.

I never actively approached the admins to get Ogg banned, but I support their decision entirely.

In the end it wasn’t even possible to try and have a serious conversation about Sky TV without getting flamed.

Now THAT is not great at all.

errornz

16-08-2021, 06:34 AM

Glad OGG is gone. By the looks of his trades he was pumping, dumping them re-pumping. Rinse and repeat.

Joshuatree

16-08-2021, 08:45 AM

To me he came across as someone who got in far to deep expecting a quick return.

biker

16-08-2021, 08:59 AM

Well, I enjoyed OGG’s posts, gifs and all.
He added colour to this forum and to a stock that has not delivered when it comes to an advancing share price.
I have a significant shareholding and am happy to wait for SKY to perform. In the meantime I think this forum is diminished with OGG’s absence.

Beagle

16-08-2021, 09:30 AM

12840

Buying shares in a clear downtrend is far more often than not an exercise in frustration.

John_Pinnacle

16-08-2021, 09:58 AM

mikelee

16-08-2021, 11:56 AM

mistaTea

16-08-2021, 12:00 PM

peat

16-08-2021, 12:02 PM

12840

Buying shares in a clear downtrend is far more often than not an exercise in frustration.

time frames mate

12845

mistaTea

16-08-2021, 02:32 PM

I hope Sky is looking into game streaming services and getting exclusive access for it's NZ users. This would certainly add another dimension to Sky and boost it's appeal to a wider audience. This is an advantage for a STB.

https://au.pcmag.com/game-streaming-services/86545/the-best-game-streaming-services-for-2021

Large growth numbers expected for game streaming.

https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/game-streaming-market-acquire-huge-growth-global-opportunities-and-trends-2021-06-14

Android TV boxes definitely cater for it, so I think the possibility is there for Sky if they choose to explore it. And with their ultra fast broadband offering, the bundles are there.

Given a growing majority of people are used to streaming their content using apps (especially younger audiences) I don't see the new STB having very wide appeal to younger customers unless there is something else compelling about it. Game streaming could be that very thing.

Thanks for sharing the thought JP, you may well be on to something here! And the upside in terms of subscriber numbers is potentially very big.

LaserEyeKiwi

16-08-2021, 02:47 PM

All the paid game streaming services so far have failed dramatically to attract users, even the ones provided by the worlds best technology & gaming companies (Google, Microsoft & Sony), due to the primary fact that customers willing to pay for a streaming gaming service are those that are hardcore gamers who are willing to pay for gaming, and those same users are also the most demanding of there games and find the drawbacks of streaming (latency, poor performance) as a deal breaker - so the end result being no one is using them unless they are offered for free. Netflix plan is to offer it for free as part of their monthly service, and Apple already offers “Apple arcade” (either standalone or for free with the Apple One services bundle). With that in mind the prospects for Sky aren’t terribly attractive: the set up cost is very high (need a server for every concurrent player, and each one takes years to payback), and if it’s going up against “free” game services from Netflix/Amazon/Apple etc, then i wouldn’t be including it as a slam dunk opportunity for Sky.

mistaTea

16-08-2021, 02:55 PM

With that in mind the prospects for Sky aren’t terribly attractive: the set up cost is very high (need a server for every concurrent player, and each one takes years to payback), and if it’s going up against “free” game services from Netflix/Amazon/Apple etc, then i wouldn’t be including it as a slam dunk opportunity for Sky.

Even if Sky looked at this space I don't think anything would happen imminently. First things first, they need to get the new STB out to their customers to help keep churn down in the base.

But if they did enter gaming (assuming it even makes sense to do so...) then I wouldn't have thought they would have massive costs setting up servers etc. They would do deals with the major gaming companies so that they can bundle it up on the Sky platform. The game companies would pay for all of the costs to do with setting up and supporting the gaming, Sky would just get wholesale deals with them and offer the service to their customers.

Could be pie in the Sky, but an interesting idea anyway!

Alpha

17-08-2021, 12:01 PM

At the risk of being banned. SKT managed to break through the wall that was 0.16 and is having a little ripper today.

mistaTea

17-08-2021, 12:10 PM

At the risk of being banned. SKT managed to break through the wall that was 0.16 and is having a little ripper today.

See? The pump & dump trolls get banned and the SP goes up.

Thanks Vince!

Alpha

17-08-2021, 12:23 PM

Haha while Ogg has frustrated me at times as well. He has also found some interest things and provided much to the debate that has been on going.

It is probably Ogg buying up as he must have found the golden chalice

peat

17-08-2021, 12:46 PM

At the risk of being banned. SKT managed to break through the wall that was 0.16 and is having a little ripper today.

Thats a completely fair comment and should risk no ire of mod.

Alpha

17-08-2021, 03:49 PM

Looking at the last few trades it appears the bots have taken over and are holding this back yet again.

Alpha

17-08-2021, 04:02 PM

Just crazy driven to close Red. This is seriously being played with.

Looking forward to finding out what comes from this in the next few weeks.

LaserEyeKiwi

17-08-2021, 05:10 PM

Just crazy driven to close Red. This is seriously being played with.

Looking forward to finding out what comes from this in the next few weeks.

Whole market tanked on covid news - which actually might be pretty good for Sky if there is a lockdown for a few weeks

nztx

17-08-2021, 06:41 PM

Whole market tanked on covid news - which actually might be pretty good for Sky if there is a lockdown for a few weeks

likely too .. a fair portion of the northern population base all locked down mostly within their boundaries ;)

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 06:04 AM

Sky TV services should get a workout for the next week or so.

ratkin

18-08-2021, 08:01 AM

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 08:06 AM

Live sport is a tough gig. Despite Spark’s massive size they have struggled to get major inroads.

Cricket rights were a boon, no doubt.

But it is hard to win year round major sports rights. Certainly has been anything but easy.

They will pick up more major sport over time though if they manage to stay the course. Sky have to work double hard to keep relationships healthy.

All the rugby clawbacks are bound to piss NZR off though. Not that Spark would have done any different.

But I just hope sky is thinking big picture and doesn’t push too hard on the clawbacks to the point that the relationship gets badly damaged.

Spark are waiting…

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 08:55 AM

Sparks result today did not have much to say about spark sport

Spark Sport delivered its first cricket season inpartnership with NZ Cricket, with 99.9% platform availability and positive reception to the new productionformat.

Reading between the lines, not much to get excited about in terms of subscribers, or they would have mentioned it.

They did put a bit more blurb than that...

"Spark Sport
Spark Sport offers a range of local andinternational sporting options includingrugby, football, cricket, tennis, motorsports,basketball, MMA, racing, boxing, golf,hockey, e-sports, and athletics.During FY21 we delivered our first‘summer of cricket’ in our seven-yearpartnership with New Zealand Cricket –streaming over 3 million hours of livecricket into New Zealand, with nearly240,000 Spark Sport viewers tuning in towatch the BLACKCAPS and WHITE FERNS"

240K "viewers"...which includes families at home plus people watching at the pub etc.

Not sure how many paying subscribers that would amount to, but obviously a lot less and nothing to brag about.

Will be interesting to see how many subs they can attract with all of the football coming up on their menu.

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 11:15 AM

Market is down and Sky is up! This literally NEVER happens!

The relationship is typically:

When the market is up Sky TV is down
When the market is down Sky TV is down

The tide is turning people!

allfromacell

18-08-2021, 01:12 PM

Market is down and Sky is up! This literally NEVER happens!

The relationship is typically:

When the market is up Sky TV is down
When the market is down Sky TV is down

The tide is turning people!

Sky TV the defensive share against COVID-19, who would have thought..

biker

18-08-2021, 01:20 PM

Probably just anticipation/speculation of something promising coming out of the Annual Results this time next week.

nztx

18-08-2021, 01:27 PM

It might just be OGG getting his revenge ;)

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 01:34 PM

Probably just anticipation/speculation of something promising coming out of the AGM this time next week.

Not AGM. Just release of financials.

Balance

18-08-2021, 01:56 PM

Sky - the graffiti thread.

Open ST and it's there all the time, with thousands of postings with the same theme going round and round but with the stock going nowhere.

mistaTea

18-08-2021, 01:59 PM

Sky - the graffiti thread.

Open ST and it's there all the time, with thousands of postings with the same theme going round and round but with the stock going nowhere.

We are all stinking rich.

The market just hasn't realised it yet...

allfromacell

18-08-2021, 02:05 PM

Sky - the graffiti thread.

Open ST and it's there all the time, with thousands of postings with the same theme going round and round but with the stock going nowhere.

A lot like the Black Monday thread eh, you'd think punters would learn but obviously not.

biker

18-08-2021, 02:09 PM

Not AGM. Just release of financials.

Oops, Yes, what he said.
I’ve amended my post

Alpha

18-08-2021, 05:58 PM

Another big off market at the end of the day.

Slim

18-08-2021, 06:21 PM

Aussie seems to be averaging higher consistently as well, still at numbers well below nzx but average trading numbers on there do tend to be very small

Monarch

18-08-2021, 06:24 PM

Search interest in the term "neon" on google has been rising strongly over the last day, not so much for the term "sky tv" though.

Shareguy

18-08-2021, 07:24 PM

Good point monarch, I imagine they’ll be a lot of people signing up. Interesting having a look at the Spark result they certainly weren’t talking spark sport up. They talked about partnering with others in the future… I wonder who

mistaTea

19-08-2021, 05:32 AM

This is an interesting development!

https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2021/08/18/comcast-and-viacomcbs-to-launch-skyshowtime/

DeathByWarriors

19-08-2021, 07:46 AM

I miss the Nicholas Cage memes that used to come with these type of articles

Akane

19-08-2021, 07:50 AM

I miss the Nicholas Cage memes that used to come with these type of articles
Yup, having him around is like having a lotto ticket every week - giving me a glimpse of hope to live on.

Sad times indeed.

waikare

19-08-2021, 07:55 AM

I miss the Nicholas Cage memes that used to come with these type of articles

I don't, it's nice to just read the post without NC popping up............

RTM

19-08-2021, 08:34 AM

Yup, having him around is like having a lotto ticket every week - giving me a glimpse of hope to live on.

Sad times indeed.

I miss the Nicholas Cage memes that used to come with these type of articles

Agree...harmless fun / humour gone.

LaserEyeKiwi

19-08-2021, 08:40 AM

This is an interesting development!

https://www.broadbandtvnews.com/2021/08/18/comcast-and-viacomcbs-to-launch-skyshowtime/

bad news for Sky Nz if comcast/Viacom look to roll that same collaboration out here.

mistaTea

19-08-2021, 08:48 AM

bad news for Sky Nz if comcast/Viacom look to roll that same collaboration out here.

Yes, but it would not make any sense to release 'Sky Showtime' in NZ when the content is already available on the competitively-priced NEON.

It would make more sense if their JV had exclusive rights to the content.

This is where the case for a big player like Comcast buying Sky NZ (like they did Sky UK) makes sense. Our 'buddy ole pal' had good reason for putting this forward as one possible scenario for Sky TV.

Unfortunately, he ripped the ring right out of it and got himself banned by blatantly trying to pump the stock (unsuccessfully, I might add).

More twists and turns to come in the Sky saga though, that's for sure.

peat

19-08-2021, 08:52 AM

More twists and turns to come in the Sky saga though, that's for sure.

Love your subtlety. ;+)

winner69

19-08-2021, 02:48 PM

Vocus IPO in November …500m to 700m

Don’t even know ifvrelevant on this thread but you guys seem to rave on about them

Timing tipped for Vocus NZ float
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12466033

mistaTea

19-08-2021, 02:56 PM

kiora

19-08-2021, 05:04 PM

On line AGM for IFT confirms SKT not on their radar

mistaTea

19-08-2021, 05:06 PM

On line AGM for IFT confirms SKT not on their radar

Wrong asset class for IFT.

mistaTea

19-08-2021, 06:54 PM

https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/883f35qg

Question about Sky asked at 50:22.

Interesting to here the comments. Short answer was "No - but we have a good relationship with Sky and expect that to continue".

Longer answer from Marko was that they have other bigger fish to fry with their $1B cash and don't see a need to enter the content game like Spark. They would invest in improving their network and lowering costs for their customers etc.

LaserEyeKiwi

19-08-2021, 07:08 PM

IFT only invest in growth businesses, not something like Sky which has had declining revenue for 6 years straight

nztx

19-08-2021, 07:45 PM

I miss Nicholas Gage on here telling us that nothing much happened today .. ;)

Alpha

20-08-2021, 09:06 AM

Great open again. Someone wants in/more.

DeathByWarriors

20-08-2021, 09:59 AM

Insiders hopefully

mistaTea

20-08-2021, 10:08 AM

Insiders hopefully

If there is one thing we can be absolutely certain about when it comes to Sky - insiders are not buying shares.

airedale

20-08-2021, 10:14 AM

If there is one thing we can be absolutely certain about when it comes to Sky - insiders are not buying shares.

And the Board have never had any serious amounts of shares.

JohnnyTheHorse

20-08-2021, 10:29 AM

And the Board have never had any serious amounts of shares.

They must be a pretty smart bunch then :)

Alpha

20-08-2021, 10:42 AM

Except..... it maybe Dereck Handley could be buying up large.

mistaTea

20-08-2021, 12:41 PM

Sky will do another round of clawbacks for sporting costs now…

bertagj

20-08-2021, 08:23 PM

Exactly, this is a non growth company and the only way to turn around sentiment is profit. Consistent profit. Period after period profit...and paying that back to shareholders.

Rustycage

21-08-2021, 01:13 PM

Unsure if I’m allowed to post links, but anyway, a write up for SKT has appeared on VIC. Might need to create a free account to view it

https://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/idea/Sky_Network_Television/6042432447#description

nztx

21-08-2021, 01:39 PM

Will Sky do a share consolidation, so Ogg's shares get to be worth more each ? ;)

mistaTea

21-08-2021, 02:53 PM

mistaTea

21-08-2021, 03:06 PM

Will Sky do a share consolidation, so Ogg's shares get to be worth more each ? ;)

If they do a share consolidation/capital return...it would be an easy and effective way of returning money from the asset sale to shareholders without Grant Robertson clipping the ticket.

Let' say that have $100M to do a CR, and they want to reduce the shares by half (873.4M). Well, for every two shares held they could destroy one and pay each shareholder 11.45c for the destroyed share.

All else been equal, the market value per share should double to 32c...but then you own half the number of shares that you did before. So you are no better (or worse) off on that front, however you did receive a big fat one-off tax free payment.

Questions may be raised as to whether such a savagely dilutory capital raise really needed to be done during the panic, given they are returning capital to shareholders so soon. Bowman will need to get his story straight for that one.

A buyback would benefit long-term holders more...but is a slower process, and the amount of shares that can be bought back on market will be dependent on how the SP behaves as management put buy pressure on the stock. But the patient owners will see their holdings (as a percentage of the business) increase and the SP "should" increase all else being equal. Future dividends will be much fatter too, for those who stick around.

If they aren't going to use the significant amount of excess funds to make an acquisition, they will need to return a good chunk of it to shareholders I think.

Let's see what they do. Only a few more days to wait and see...

In the case of returning capital to shareholders, I personally favour the buyback option. But I am sure I can live with the Capital Return route too (in which case I would receive a tax free payment of $155K).

missusTea might even get those saucy knickers out again that I haven't seen her wear since I started buying Sky TV shares...

mistaTea

21-08-2021, 03:41 PM

I must also clarify…

When I say that in the capital return scenario that all else being equal, the SP “should” double to 32c…

That is based on the assumption that the current market capitalisation is based on a multiple of GAAP earnings, and no portion of the MC is based on hard assets owned.

If part of the valuation takes into account the $100M or land/buildings (and I really don’t think it does) then you would actually see the market cap DECREASE by $100M after the capital returned ($180M). That would be a SP of only ~20c/share.

But, you get the one-off tax free payment too.

So I do think shareholders can benefit from this approach…but thought I should clarify that one point.

winner69

22-08-2021, 07:49 AM

Hope they can keep on air

After all supermarkets are closing if they’ve been exposed

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-sky-tv-staff-member-tests-positive-for-virus/MEYQTOGWSYFS3NMOAU2G3ZJY6E/

LaserEyeKiwi

22-08-2021, 10:03 AM

I don’t think this is in anyway a threat to sky share price - presumably at worst it would only impact sky’s live broadcast content, which is what at present? Prime news broadcast? Sport news shows? This is all fairly unimportant.

jimdog31

23-08-2021, 07:59 AM

no announcement this am...... must have minimal effect on their ability to brodcast.

4pm today. hope recent effects dont affect the negotiaion.

mistaTea

23-08-2021, 08:12 AM

no announcement this am...... must have minimal effect on their ability to brodcast.

4pm today. hope recent effects dont affect the negotiaion.

I would be surprised if the lockdown affected the negotiations.

They would have already pretty well had the deal locked up with the buyer at the time they announced they were going to sell the entire campus.

Adding the two weeks was just to observe the formalities I think (and give any late bidders one final opportunity).

I could be wrong here, but I don’t think the lockdown (in and of itself) would make the process take longer.

Let’s see.

jimdog31

23-08-2021, 10:28 AM

Seeing Z's offer even thogh quite low, what we all wouldn't give for a 25% premium to the share price.....

Clearly any offers haven't even been close to this.

***Sigh***

Slim

23-08-2021, 10:43 AM

Personally even at a 25% premium I would rather take Mr Ts idea for a capital return.

jimdog31

23-08-2021, 10:50 AM

Personally even at a 25% premium I would rather take Mr Ts idea for a capital return.

The only problem with that idea is that its only Mr T's idea (as good as it is) ..... Because none of this board has invested any of their own money, they dont give a crap about capital management.

mistaTea

23-08-2021, 11:21 AM

The only problem with that idea is that its only Mr T's idea (as good as it is) ..... Because none of this board has invested any of their own money, they dont give a crap about capital management.

I think they will go with the buyback option.

Its the 'safe' option...to try to placate shareholders and avoid the worst of their wrath at the next AGM...

jimdog31

23-08-2021, 11:29 AM

I think they will go with the buyback option.

Its the 'safe' option...to try to placate shareholders and avoid the worst of their wrath at the next AGM...

The "growth" option seems to be the option they are trying to sell. Again with no money invested themselves, I have zero faith in their ability to execute.

mistaTea

23-08-2021, 11:38 AM

The "growth" option seems to be the option they are trying to sell. Again with no money invested themselves, I have zero faith in their ability to execute.

Yes, and as an investor I would much rather they put the capital to work to grow the business...

However I agree with you - they have largely been timid (or so it seems). The likelihood of them doing some type of meaningful acquisition seems miniscule...but maybe they will surprise me here.

Buyback and return of divvy is the safe option. I think a buyback of $100M should push the SP to around 20c or so (assuming the current market capitilisation stays the same). A divvy *should* then push it to 25c+

If the board can achieve that they will feel that they have done their jobs well.

RTM

23-08-2021, 02:24 PM

What has happened to this thread, has it been overtaken by children? Can you sort them out Vince, all these silly gifs etc do not belong on this site.

Are you serious ? If yes, lighten up a bit. Harmless fun from my perspective. Sky is an entertainment channel. Simply change the channel if you don’t like it, it isn’t compulsory viewing. In this day and age a bit of humour is certainly not misplaced.

Monarch

23-08-2021, 07:23 PM

I hope your right, I've gotten rather sick of seeing the line in my portfolio tracker that reads "SKT 15.9".

Marilyn Munroe

24-08-2021, 12:08 AM

There is a lot of hot money created by the US Federal Reserve deployed by masters of the universe trying to seize the high ground in subscription entertainment.

A soon as interest rates rise these masters of the universe will have to do the carpet dance in front of the spreadsheet jockeys who are the gatekeepers for the Fed's magic beans. I speculate one of these jockeys will notice on line 84 of the spreadsheet there is some place called A Terror Rower, a small market with low subscriber numbers where collection costs are larger than elsewhere. The master and the jockey should conclude the best option would be to distribute the product and collect the cash through a content aggregator.

Anyone know of an outfit that could do this?

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

clown

24-08-2021, 05:52 AM

Does anyone see Sky broadband ads anymore? I see competitor ads but not Sky.

The new Sky TV ad is cool though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvPEUcX7WZU

LaserEyeKiwi

24-08-2021, 08:09 AM

Does anyone see Sky broadband ads anymore? I see competitor ads but not Sky.

The new Sky TV ad is cool though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvPEUcX7WZU

The only ad based tv channels I watch are TVNZ streaming and TVNZ on demand, and I see the sky broadband ads often.

On the topic of broadband, it should be noted that Chorus reported annual earnings this week and the revenue chorus gets from fiber connections from the two biggest fiber customers (Spark & Vodafone) decreased noticeably - as they aggressively promote fixed wireless broadband using their own cellular networks.

The third biggest customer - which is highly likely Vocus (which wholesales fiber to sky) - chorus received a small uptick of revenue from $117 -> $120 million.

Notably, the largest customer’s revenue contribution was $372m down from $409m and the second largest was $178m down from $195m. The third was up $3m to $120m.

clown

24-08-2021, 08:13 AM

Interesting as I've not seen any ads for Sky and I watch TVNZ on demand too. There aren't any Google remarketing ads at the moment either, I've been searching for broadband so they should pop up on Google partner sites.

Hopefully we get some numbers in tomorrows announcement about their fibre subs.

The only ad based tv channels I watch are TVNZ streaming and TVNZ on demand, and I see the sky broadband ads often.

On the topic of broadband, it should be noted that Chorus reported annual earnings this week and the revenue chorus gets from fiber connections from the two biggest fiber customers (Spark & Vodafone) decreased noticeably - as they aggressively promote fixed wireless broadband using their own cellular networks.

The third biggest customer - which is highly likely Vocus (which wholesales fiber to sky) - chorus received a small uptick of revenue from $117 -> $120 million.

mistaTea

24-08-2021, 08:20 AM

NZME boosts half year profit, reinstates dividend and sells GrabOne
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12467020

Selling assets and just reinstated divvy. Let’s see what happens to the SP.

I draw many parallels between Sky and NZME.

clown

24-08-2021, 08:23 AM

Reinstated divvy with debt.

Sky: no debt, lots of cash on hand, no divvy!!!

NZME boosts half year profit, reinstates dividend and sells GrabOne
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12467020

Selling assets and just reinstated divvy. Let’s see what happens to the SP.

I draw many parallels between Sky and NZME.

mistaTea

24-08-2021, 09:01 AM

Reinstated divvy with debt.

Sky: no debt, lots of cash on hand, no divvy!!!

Patience, there is light at the end of what turned out to be a very long tunnel.

NZME probably won't see much price action. If they pay 3c each half that is ~12M in total. The current market cap of $183M would represent a yield of ~7% - which is what the market would expect for a business like this I reckon. So the divvy is likely already priced in as they had signalled it earlier.

The good news for Sky is that if they do take the conservative approach and do buybacks and divvys...

The buyback could potentially reduce shares outstanding to ~1.2B.

If an initial divvy of 30M increased the market cap to represent a 7-8% yield, then that would be a MC ~375M-430M (31c - 36c per share).

This is pretty much what BlackCrane are predicting based on their presentation (and have made clear to the board in terms of their expectations moving forward).

As Peter Kennan would say - "Let's see."

mistaTea

24-08-2021, 11:29 AM

Patience, there is light at the end of what turned out to be a very long tunnel.

NZME probably won't see much price action. If they pay 3c each half that is ~12M in total. The current market cap of $183M would represent a yield of ~7% - which is what the market would expect for a business like this I reckon. So the divvy is likely already priced in as they had signalled it earlier.

The good news for Sky is that if they do take the conservative approach and do buybacks and divvys...

The buyback could potentially reduce shares outstanding to ~1.2B.

If an initial divvy of 30M increased the market cap to represent a 7-8% yield, then that would be a MC ~375M-430M (31c - 36c per share).

This is pretty much what BlackCrane are predicting based on their presentation (and have made clear to the board in terms of their expectations moving forward).

As Peter Kennan would say - "Let's see."

NZME shares have responded positively after all, increase in market cap of ~5% (now $193M). If the total dividend paid for the FY ends up being 6c/share (~12M) then that represents a yield of 6%.

If the same could be expected for Sky, then with the reasoning above... after buybacks reduce the shares outstanding to 1.2B, then a starting divvy of $30M with a 6% yield would be a quoted value of $500M (~42c/share).

And we do know that the ultimate restoration of a divvy will have an enormous impact on the share price...after all, look how badly the SP was savaged when Martin Stewart cancelled all future dividends in August 2019 (analysts had predicted a dividend cut but not a total stop (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-shares-dive-as-dividend-axed/QNC4I6EHAYRPVKPCB5MU3GKYT4/)...SP tumbled from $1.10/share to 28c/share before the crazy Capital Raise).

sb9

24-08-2021, 11:34 AM

NZME shares have responded positively after all, increase in market cap of ~5% (now $193M). If the total dividend paid for the FY ends up being 6c/share (~12M) then that represents a yield of 6%.

If the same could be expected for Sky, then with the reasoning above... after buybacks reduce the shares outstanding to 1.2B, then a starting divvy of $30M with a 6% yield would be a quoted value of $500M (~42c/share).

And we do know that the ultimate restoration of a divvy will have an enormous impact on the share price...after all, look how badly the SP was savaged when Martin Stewart cancelled all future dividends in August 2019 (analysts had predicted a dividend cut but not a total stop (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-shares-dive-as-dividend-axed/QNC4I6EHAYRPVKPCB5MU3GKYT4/)...SP tumbled from $1.10/share to 28c/share before the crazy Capital Raise).

Agree 100%, with benefit of hindsight Sophia would be well aware what market expectations are and how to address them sensibly. And I'm sure Arie and his team would giving enough insights around that.

mistaTea

24-08-2021, 11:42 AM

Agree 100%, with benefit of hindsight Sophia would be well aware what market expectations are and how to address them sensibly. And I'm sure Arie and his team would giving enough insights around that.

Kiwis love their dividend stocks. None of this 'growth stock' nonsense!...they like to see that money hit their bank account twice a year.

God help you if you interrupt that dividend flow!

clown

24-08-2021, 12:51 PM

[QUOTE=Ogg;903022]What I do tomorrow hasn't been determined yet.

Easy on the gifs dude... you must have exceeded your daily limit by now.

Alpha

24-08-2021, 12:55 PM

Haha.

Large Seller at 0.167 seems to have/ slashed moved to 0.164 (edit now at .165 Yahoo)

Will be interesting to see where this closes today. Hopefully not a dead cat.

Alpha

24-08-2021, 01:14 PM

Capping the price now at .165 don't want to let VWAP get to high.

LaserEyeKiwi

24-08-2021, 01:27 PM

Good news for Sky - the rugby championship to go ahead in a friendly to NZ primetime timezone - Queensland (the Idea to go to Europe to play would have been terrible for everyone (except for the dubious NZR board director who stood to profit privately from the deal)

https://i.stuff.co.nz/sport/rugby/international/126162343/queensland-to-host-rugby-championship

clown

24-08-2021, 02:45 PM

Some last minute action happening....

3:14:55 pm
3:22:30 pm
16.4
3,250,000
0.1
$533,000
2

uravgtrader

24-08-2021, 04:11 PM

Market's closed. Is it back down to 15.9 yet?

Judging by the price action, doesn't look like anything will amount in tomorrow's annual results.

uravgtrader

24-08-2021, 04:21 PM

Feel sorry for the guy who just bought 100k worth of shares, as they're bound to lose most of the value tomorrow anyway!

clown

24-08-2021, 04:39 PM

Has Ogg been banned again?

uravgtrader

24-08-2021, 04:57 PM

I can guarantee you there will be no takeover tomorrow.

mistaTea

24-08-2021, 05:06 PM

I can guarantee you there will be no takeover tomorrow.

Unless the property sale is signed this evening, there may not be very much to say at all beyond reporting the financial results.

In which case speculation on what to do with all the cash will have to wait until the AGM (sometime in September usually).

jimdog31

24-08-2021, 05:08 PM

Unless the property sale is signed this evening, there may not be very much to say at all beyond reporting the financial results.

In which case speculation on what to do with all the cash will have to wait until the AGM (sometime in September usually).

Im expecting no real news tomorrow, and subsequent share price weakness.

Slim

24-08-2021, 05:37 PM

16.5 on asx
16.2 on nzx

LaserEyeKiwi

24-08-2021, 05:40 PM

I don’t think anyone outside this little thread is expecting any takeover announcements tomorrow, so I wouldn’t expect any sort of large sell off if one isn’t announced. Tomorrow the market is expecting earnings, and hoping for some more info on the property sale and dividend reinstatement.

Any takeover offer announced would be a surprise to the market, not completely out of the blue given the previous approaches alluded to by management, but that does not mean a takeover offer is expected tomorrow.

biker

24-08-2021, 06:02 PM

16.5 on asx
16.2 on nzx

vwap asx 15.7
vwap nzx 16.3

DeathByWarriors

25-08-2021, 07:32 AM

Consolidation ;)

winner69

25-08-2021, 07:40 AM

No worries …..Sophie says ‘we are at an inflection point for Sky.’

Just like Oceania

Share price be 2 bucks soon

BigBob

25-08-2021, 07:41 AM

winner69

25-08-2021, 07:47 AM

…and F22 profit going backwards big time

Ebitda $186m in F21 and expect only $115m in F22 ….that’s terrible

Wtf is going on

ados_nz

25-08-2021, 07:56 AM

Hey MT you can soon tell your wife that your SKT shares are now worth over $1 each!

;)

RTM

25-08-2021, 07:58 AM

Hey MT you can soon tell your wife that your SKT shares are now worth over $1 each!

;)

Hopefully…..

Baa_Baa

25-08-2021, 08:09 AM

…and F22 profit going backwards big time

Ebitda $186m in F21 and expect only $115m in F22 ….that’s terrible

Wtf is going on

One-off's they say.

NTA per share has doubled! Brilliant.

Balance

25-08-2021, 08:11 AM

No dividend, no buyback, no confirmed property sale... :

"The Board continues to consider capital management options, including potential for dividends, in the context of the strong balance sheet, options for proceeds from the potential sale of property, and the need to reinvest operating free cash flow in FY22 into growth initiatives"

All talk imo.

Sky is fighting to stay alive and needs every dollar in the bank to do so.

Only hope is for a merger or takeover - and that has been a forlorn hope for the last 12 months.

Now a share consolidation! Good grief!

winner69

25-08-2021, 08:11 AM

One-off's they say.

NTA per share has doubled! Brilliant.

So $115m is the great RESET they mentioned in that presentation

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 08:13 AM

…and F22 profit going backwards big time

Ebitda $186m in F21 and expect only $115m in F22 ….that’s terrible

Wtf is going on

this was all explained in detail at investor day. Surge in content costs in 22 (sports rights), and the bulk of the future ongoing operating expense decreases don’t arrive until December when the new reduced satellite lease deal kicks in.

Not that I’m defending it, but this was expected.

in regards to full year guidance of “NPAT of $17.5m to $27.5m” - not fantastic, but not terrible given the 2022 profile. At the high end the earnings multiple sits around 10x, but once you take out the net cash (post property sale), it’s closer to 7x earning multiple. Should provide plenty of room for a large ongoing dividend yield once it starts in 6-12 months.

winner69

25-08-2021, 08:13 AM

One-off's they say.

NTA per share has doubled! Brilliant.

NTA doubling …..wow ….does that really matter

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 08:19 AM

Wow missusTea will think I am a genius when i tell her our shares have rocketed to $1.60 each!

I might just neglect to tell her our holding has decreased from 2.7M to 270K...

This Board are brilliant! Poof! No longer a penny stock! Just like magic!

clown

25-08-2021, 08:25 AM

Well at least no one had a theory of consolidation on this forum. I think?

Shareguy

25-08-2021, 08:28 AM

On first glance. They bet improved guidance. Share consolidation a good thing. What was surprisingly was the revenue forecast for 22. Npat forecast was flagged at the investor day and is mostly a one off so all in all not so bad.

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 08:28 AM

Well at least no one had a theory of consolidation on this forum. I think?

Well, I thought they might do some type of consolidation as part of a capital return.

They are doing the consolidation part - they just forgot to give us any money!

AHHH HUUHUHUHUHUHUU!

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 08:29 AM

Share consolidation a good thing.

Yes, for a business with such a small market cap having 1.7B shares outstanding is a tad ridiculous.

Dlownz

25-08-2021, 08:30 AM

They were above guidence which is a great thing bit so sure about next year. They could have just paid out the price of the share consolidation in divi instead of spend it. But inother news in a few weeks it won't be a penny stock. Does that mean company's that don't deal with penny stocks can get in

clown

25-08-2021, 08:34 AM

Close enough. Award for "Best Theory" goes to Mista

Well, I thought they might do some type of consolidation as part of a capital return.

They are doing the consolidation part - they just forgot to give us any money!

AHHH HUUHUHUHUHUHUU!

KJMLimited

25-08-2021, 08:35 AM

I raised the consolidation theory a while ago and the reason why it is a good idea. SKY has a bank of imputation credits but not enough cash to pay a fully imputed dividend. The solution is to issue bonus shares to which they can attached the imputation credits. However with millions of shares at 16c, issuing bonus shares is tricky. You'd be adding millions of shares to an already massive pool. Therefore post consolidation is the right time - I'd say there's a big chance of a fully imputed bonus share issue coming.

Alpha

25-08-2021, 08:36 AM

Can we expect further news at investor day over and above what has been released to market now?

Consolidation is great news but did think they would have re started the Divies. Is the company just being conservative? Or are they holding funds for a M&A?

ados_nz

25-08-2021, 08:46 AM

Good press

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126170534/sky-tv-doubles-profit-thanks-to-oneoffs-gains-sees-revenue-growth-this-year

clown

25-08-2021, 08:48 AM

Not a bad write up from good old Chris too..
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-beats-profit-guidance-guides-to-first-revenue-growth-since-2016/DTXFTFHTYM5MYNRAXHO2GRTP4E/

RTM

25-08-2021, 08:50 AM

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 08:52 AM

Slide 8 does have a glimmer of hope though...Sky Box customers INCREASED by 23K!

Quantitative Easing

25-08-2021, 08:57 AM

All things considered. Pretty good result for a company with a market cap of 270m.

jimdog31

25-08-2021, 08:58 AM

Alpha

25-08-2021, 08:58 AM

Ogg start you count down timer for the AGM on Oct 28th

Monarch

25-08-2021, 09:00 AM

Alpha

25-08-2021, 09:01 AM

I tend to agree. A share consolidation will have a purpose. Patience everyone, imagine the day the announcement hits with the building sale...

I tend to agree. Between now and AGM I would expect further news on the property sale.

Entrep

25-08-2021, 09:02 AM

Market likes it

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:02 AM

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 09:03 AM

Only because they switched the reseller sky box numbers over to direct. It’s still a net decline. The more amusing thing is the arpu decline, they are cutting prices AND losing customers so sky box revenue decline hasn’t really slowed at all!

Untrue. The reseller customers are now classified as streaming customers.

They genuinely did increase satellite subs by 23K.

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:06 AM

Only because they switched the reseller sky box numbers over to direct. It’s still a net decline. The more amusing thing is the arpu decline, they are cutting prices AND losing customers so sky box revenue decline hasn’t really slowed at all!

sky box ARPU was actually a bright spot when you read the commentary on it (when I say “bright spot” I mean decreased less than I thought it would)

12881

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:09 AM

Untrue. The reseller customers are now classified as streaming customers.

They genuinely did increase satellite subs by 23K.

I don’t think so - they clearly say a 3.8% decline in skybox customers

they had 47k additions, and 69k disconnections - net loss of 22k skybox customers.

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 09:09 AM

Untrue. The reseller customers are now classified as streaming customers.

They genuinely did increase satellite subs by 23K.

Apologies Monarch, I think I am in the wrong here - was getting myself confused with RETRANSMISSION customers (Vodafone TV).

Monarch

25-08-2021, 09:11 AM

Untrue. The reseller customers are now classified as streaming customers.

They genuinely did increase satellite subs by 23K.

Then why on slide 8 do they say "progress towards stabilising Sky Box customer base, which declined 3.8% in FY2021". Just ran the numbers and that decline correlates to 532+44 (Direct + reseller) in FY2020 to 555 (Direct and reseller merged) in FY2022.

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 09:12 AM

Then why on slide 8 do they say "progress towards stabilising Sky Box customer base, which declined 3.8% in FY2021". Just ran the numbers and that decline correlates to 532+44 (Direct + reseller) in FY2020 to 555 (Direct and reseller merged) in FY2022.

See message above. I was wrong.

Monarch

25-08-2021, 09:14 AM

Does anyone know how much the consolidation is going to cost in nzx fees?

allfromacell

25-08-2021, 09:16 AM

Selling quite a few this morning, sorry guys gotta beat Ogg to it

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:21 AM

$35 million cash on hand. Another $7 million coming apparently in September from the 2nd tranche of OSB purchase. And of course the property sale will deliver a nice big chunk of change. Given NPAT guidance I think it’s reasonable to assume in 12 months time it will be somewhere between $80-$100 million cash on hand depending on the property sale amount.

jimdog31

25-08-2021, 09:22 AM

Selling quite a few this morning, sorry guys gotta beat Ogg to it

Sorry, but what does todays details change? The properties will get sold, they can hardly announce what they are going to do with the money until its a done deal?

I believe a share consolidation is the right thing to do for right now.

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 09:24 AM

Sorry, but what does todays details change? The properties will get sold, they can hardly announce what they are going to do with the money until its a done deal?

I believe a share consolidation is the right thing to do for right now.

Yes, it is BAU until we see the properties get sold and The Board explain what they will do with the cash.

Hopefully we don't have to wait until the end of October to find out.

Other than that, they have exceeded expectations for FY21, and FY22 is in line with previous commentary.

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:25 AM

Everyone bear in mind the earnings call (video webcast) is coming up at 11am, so we might get some more clarification on dividend intention etc then. They did previously say they would look to reinstate dividends in FY22. Also undoubtedly get some analyst questions regarding takeover offers.

Live video webcast is available to watch here: https://globalmeet.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1481806&tp_key=7a0dc9ec97

allfromacell

25-08-2021, 09:25 AM

Sorry, but what does todays details change? The properties will get sold, they can hardly announce what they are going to do with the money until its a done deal?

I believe a share consolidation is the right thing to do for right now.

Less free cash than expected, more revenue falls, no numbers on broadband and next year GAAP profit to be only 20 odd million. I actually think the SP still represents around fair value just reducing to a normal sized holding really.

clown

25-08-2021, 09:26 AM

The wording potential sale feels like they still don't have a buyer? Maybe more negotiations happening?

From slide 29: The Board continues to consider capital management options, includingpotential for dividends, in the context of the strong balance sheet, options forproceeds from the potential sale of property, and the need to reinvestoperating free cash flow in FY22 into growth initiatives

Sorry, but what does todays details change? The properties will get sold, they can hardly announce what they are going to do with the money until its a done deal?

I believe a share consolidation is the right thing to do for right now.

jimdog31

25-08-2021, 09:31 AM

Offset by$10.3m of one-off costs relating to content impairments and the mutuallyagreed exit of the former CEO

Martin should have had to pay his salary back for the death issue.

jimdog31

25-08-2021, 09:33 AM

The wording potential sale feels like they still don't have a buyer? Maybe more negotiations happening?

From slide 29: The Board continues to consider capital management options, includingpotential for dividends, in the context of the strong balance sheet, options forproceeds from the potential sale of property, and the need to reinvestoperating free cash flow in FY22 into growth initiatives

I guess if they had said "from the sale of property" we all would have latched onto this as a disclosure requirement today?

clown

25-08-2021, 09:36 AM

i would have preferred to read "from the sale of property". The F22 guidance also excludes any money from the property sale.

I guess if they had said "from the sale of property" we all would have latched onto this as a disclosure requirement today?

jimdog31

25-08-2021, 09:39 AM

i would have preferred to read "from the sale of property". The F22 guidance also excludes any money from the property sale.

Very true..... Why i wonder???

Probably more is being said by what is being unsaid :t_up:

clown

25-08-2021, 09:41 AM

Yep, that's very typical with recent Sky announcements...

Very true..... Why i wonder???

Probably more is being said by what is being unsaid :t_up:

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:42 AM

From the herald story which had additional comments from Sophie.

Talking to the Herald soon after today's result was released, CEO Sophie Moloney said the guidance was subject to change if the Delta outbreak persisted and caused major disruption to the sports calendar. On the upside, Moloney said Neon subscribers had spiked since the latest lockdown began.

LaserEyeKiwi

25-08-2021, 09:43 AM

Very true..... Why i wonder???

Probably more is being said by what is being unsaid :t_up:

there is no way Sky would ever say that the property sale is guaranteed before it has actually finalized a sale. That is simply common sense it would refer to it as “potential”

mistaTea

25-08-2021, 09:44 AM

"I noted at the Investor Day that Sky hasreceived unsolicited approaches aroundpotential transactions in the past year, all ofwhich were highly conditional and incomplete.We also advised that Sky is open to reviewingstrategic investment partnerships thatwill deliver sustained ongoing growth tothe company, which in turn will acceleratethe creation of shareholder values. Jardenhave been appointed as strategic advisorsand they continue to assess options."

LOL Philip, as if anyone believes Jarden is still "assessing" anything right now.

Clearly Sky blew a M&A opportunity, and now we just carry on.