SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Entrep]

Halt notice before open, yes/no?

[sb9]

Halt notice before open, yes/no?

Doubt it, more pertinent question is will it hit 20c mark today or by end of this week

[airedale]

Doubt it, more pertinent question is will it hit 20c mark today or by end of this week
Or will there be a retracment. Stay tuned.

[winner69]

Whose this new big shareholder who filed a SSH today

[Quantitative Easing]

Vision statement - "We seek to generate strong, risk-adjusted returns by investing in undervalued, small capitalization companies across equity markets. Our Osmium 8 research process is based on eight simple factors involving factors such as balance sheet strength, aligned interests, attractive reinvestment opportunities, a low valuation, and reasonable growth prospects. As engaged owners, we actively discuss corporate strategy and capital structure with management teams and boards of directors. We prefer to conduct these discussions in private, but we will publicly debate important items with all shareholders when appropriate."

[bung5]

Vision statement - "We seek to generate strong, risk-adjusted returns by investing in undervalued, small capitalization companies across equity markets. Our Osmium 8 research process is based on eight simple factors involving factors such as balance sheet strength, aligned interests, attractive reinvestment opportunities, a low valuation, and reasonable growth prospects. As engaged owners, we actively discuss corporate strategy and capital structure with management teams and boards of directors. We prefer to conduct these discussions in private, but we will publicly debate important items with all shareholders when appropriate."






"Established in 2002, Osmium Partners, LLC is a leading investment management firm headquartered in the San Francisco Bay Area. We focus on investing in high-quality, small capitalization public equities via an exhaustive, bottom-up research process."


Its all on

[waikare]

Osmium Partners been busy buying over past few days both on NZX and ASX.

Osmium Partners are based in San Francisco, below is their Investment Strategy.

We seek to generate strong, risk-adjusted returns by investing in undervalued, small capitalization companies across US equity markets. Our research process is based on eight simple factors involving balance sheet strength, aligned interests, attractive reinvestment opportunities, a low valuation, and reasonable growth prospects. As engaged owners, we actively discuss corporate strategy and capital structure with management teams and boards of directors. We prefer to conduct these discussions in private, but we will publicly debate important items with all shareholders when appropriate.

[winner69]

Osmium in love with NZME as well

[winner69]

Why they in love with NZME

What triggered US fund to invest in NZME?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364171


The man said - A lot of great businesses are built in times when others are going in reverse

[LEMON]

Now NZME is trading around a dollar from the 54cent almost a year ago? Be interesting to see what happens with the SP now

[Alpha]

Morning star just lol. Gone from Buy to accumulate. Well that’s what’s been happen over the last for however long. I’d say it’s now more a BUY than ever before.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Finally some hourly consolidation. Well overdue after every hourly candle low being higher than the last for 3 days. Looking for dip buy trades mid 18's.

[Alpha]

Agree need some consolidation before the hopefully next leg up.

[mikelee]

i never really understood the difference between "buy" & "accumulate" recommendations. aren't they essentially the same?

[sb9]

Indicative open on ASX at AU 18.5c

[Alpha]

A casual 2M off market at 18.9

[nztx]

Why they in love with NZME

What triggered US fund to invest in NZME?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12364171


The man said - A lot of great businesses are built in times when others are going in reverse



have to remember to pull the exit ripcord before they decide to pull the chain .. ;)

remember what happened with US Fundies playing in our Power shares - CEN & a few others ? ;)

[sb9]

A casual 2M off market at 18.9

And another one..

[Shareguy]

It’s Interesting that this fund sees value at .19. Hopefully this will flush out other interest and we might not have long to wait.

[n908671]

It’s Interesting that this fund sees value at .19. Hopefully this will flush out other interest and we might not have long to wait.

Assuming this fund is in it to make a quick buck and sellout further down the track, what do you think their exit/sell price would be? At 22 that's a 15.79% return which doesn't sound like a lot given the uncertainty. At 25 that's a return of 31.58%

[mfd]

have to remember to pull the exit ripcord before they decide to pull the chain .. ;)

remember what happened with US Fundies playing in our Power shares - CEN & a few others ? ;)

Slight difference. The power company buying was based on index composition and did not depend on the buyers seeing any value in the shares. This case is a value investor buying under their own steam. They can stop when they have enough or think the price is too high and are unlikely to drive the price to crazy levels like MEL and CEN a few months ago.

[clown]

Onwards and upwards :t_up:


Osmium will be accumulating this all the way up to 30c. Just look at how they pushed up NZME and kept buying the stock at higher and higher prices!

Still way undervalued at these prices.

Every pip up from here keeps driving any take over higher and higher.

I see 23c as the new base level (Craig's target price).

Just lol at all the weak hands selling out after the FY results!

[mikelee]

could someone with a subscription give us the full story? ta.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-investor-adds-sky-tv-holding-to-an-nz-portfolio-that-already-includes-a-stake-in-nzme/VGPBZ3PP625J4R3P5ODDMQPVLY/

[Joshuatree]

Good vol today so far over 12 mill thru on both exchanges.

[clown]

Lol after all those questions...

The result saw wealth manager Jarden on August 26 upgrade its rating from underweight to neutral, but trimmed its 12-month target price from 19c to 18c. Analysts Arie Dekker and Luan Nguyen saw reasons for cautious optimism with programming rights costs peaking in the current year and streaming revenue on the increase. However, they said it was "still too early to call inflection point".


could someone with a subscription give us the full story? ta.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-investor-adds-sky-tv-holding-to-an-nz-portfolio-that-already-includes-a-stake-in-nzme/VGPBZ3PP625J4R3P5ODDMQPVLY/

[clown]

Yeah I did think about this yesterday while I was in the sin bin ;)


The cronies at Jarden have all the inside info on the takeover. They're probably accumulating while putting out negative coverage.

[jimdog31]

Yeah I did think about this yesterday while I was in the sin bin ;)

Mate that stint was like a virtual Guantanamo bay lol. Anybody remotely connected top a gif was sent away for some waterboarding haha. Thats alright probably did the share price some good.

SO, thoughts on NZME /Sky merger now? Mistatea started that rumour a little while ago on HC, is this related?

[Alpha]

15M plus already traded and we have a few more hours.

Another big day.

[jimdog31]

I hope not.

Although if that was the only option on the table, then probably better than nothing.

If it flushes comcast back out, more bidders the better right?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hourly higher low / support confirmed at 18.7. Watching 19.2 break for bull flag confirmation and continuation.

[clown]

Haha yeah, note to self: remove gifs when replying.

I hope they don't merge. But like Ogg said, something is better than nothing.


Mate that stint was like a virtual Guantanamo bay lol. Anybody remotely connected top a gif was sent away for some waterboarding haha. Thats alright probably did the share price some good.

SO, thoughts on NZME /Sky merger now? Mistatea started that rumour a little while ago on HC, is this related?

[snigmac]

The gif days are over.

Only serious investor discussions from now on.

Sky has moved on from being meme. It's actually investable now.

Sky has been investable for some time after the dip. Just need to abit more patient, we will be rewarded soon :)

[Alpha]

Love it perfect timing Ogg and Co welcome back. And talk about timing to consolidate as well to bring us up into the $ rather than cents.

[mistaTea]

Back from the naughty corner!

[Alpha]

Another huge off market at 1.34pm

[Alpha]

;) ;) ;)

Property sale will come through soon enough as well.

[clown]

Any predictions on the SP before consolidation?

[mistaTea]

With the new STB + diversifying revenue streams with broadband... Sky is on the cusp of reaching an important phase...

When STB + Commercial + Advertising + Broadband revenue cover all OPEX + Keep the lights on CAPEX...then it means all the streaming revenue from NEON, Sky Sport NOW and Vodafone TV retransmission becomes 'money for jam'. This money can be used for growth CAPEX as well as dividends.

Sky have made no bones about needing to make significant further permanent savings. This can only mean more redundancies. I believe when MS was CEO there was 1200 staff and he wanted to halve that. They are down to around 900 or so...so lots of room for reductions. And the new 'lean and mean' Sky TV does not need a thousand bums on seats to get the job done.

I appreciate more now why they are so keen on the STB. It's all about getting to the point where the base pays the bills and streaming generates the profits.

BlackCrane and Osmium both keen on buybacks it seems. Between them they own ~10% of Sky...and Osmium are probably going to increase that.

I think a post consolidation buyback is now inevitable with the proceeds from the property.

FY22 will see the expected dip in earnings, but then I expect to see earnings lift significantly from FY23 as per the commentary above. With streaming expected to increase by 10%-15% CAGR for the next few years, the FY23 and beyond FCF could be very very healthy.

High dividends. High share price.

[Quantitative Easing]

With the new STB + diversifying revenue streams with broadband... Sky is on the cusp of reaching an important phase...

When STB + Commercial + Advertising + Broadband revenue cover all OPEX + Keep the lights on CAPEX...then it means all the streaming revenue from NEON, Sky Sport NOW and Vodafone TV retransmission becomes 'money for jam'. This money can be used for growth CAPEX as well as dividends.

Sky have made no bones about needing to make significant further permanent savings. This can only mean more redundancies. I believe when MS was CEO there was 1200 staff and he wanted to halve that. They are down to around 900 or so...so lots of room for reductions. And the new 'lean and mean' Sky TV does not need a thousand bums on seats to get the job done.

I appreciate more now why they are so keen on the STB. It's all about getting to the point where the base pays the bills and streaming generates the profits.

BlackCrane and Osmium both keen on buybacks it seems. Between then they own ~10% of Sky...and Osmium are probably going to increase that.

I think a post consolidation buyback is not inevitable with the proceeds from the property.

FY22 will see the expected dip in earnings, but then I expect to see earnings lift significantly from FY23 as per the commentary above. With streaming expected to increase by 10%-15% CAGR for the next few years, the FY23 and beyond FCF could be very very healthy.

High dividends. High share price.

Great summation. Please post it on sharesies. We need to get the word out.

[mistaTea]

Great summation. Please post it on sharesies. We need to get the word out.

Apart from my typos!...

"I think a post consolidation buyback is not inevitable with the proceeds from the property."

This was supposed to say that "I think a post consolidation buyback is now inevitable with the proceeds from the property"

[jimdog31]

Apart from my typos!...

"I think a post consolidation buyback is not inevitable with the proceeds from the property."

This was supposed to say that "I think a post consolidation buyback is now inevitable with the proceeds from the property"

I knew what ya meant... didnt make sense the other way.

Peter Keenan must be smiling from ear to ear

[jimdog31]

The gif days are over.

Only serious investor discussions from now on.

Sky has moved on from being meme. It's actually investable now.

Ain't that the truth!!

[mistaTea]

I knew what ya meant... didnt make sense the other way.

Peter Keenan must be smiling from ear to ear

PK will be a Cheshire Cat right now...he has called it spot on with Sky.

[Baa_Baa]

This was part of Peter Kennan investment strategy. Once Sky proved the turn around strategy the big funds would come back.

For those who may not know what Black Crane Capitals' investment thesis for Sky (https://moiglobal.com/peter-kennan-202104/) is. Well worth a listen.

[clown]

This was an article on the HBO deal. This part is interesting. The only Sky Original I've watched was the crime show on NEON. I couldn't get past Episode one lol

A spokeswoman for Sky says the two companies have also signed a co-production agreement to create original New Zealand programming in NZ with a deal inked between Sky Originals and Warner Bros International Television Production NZ.
"We're not able to reveal details of the productions yet but hopefully that part will be well-received by the local creative sector after recent news," the spokeswoman said in a reference to Amazon pulling its Lord of the Rings production from NZ.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-signs-hbo-max-deal-with-some-direct-to-consumer-streaming-wars-fine-print/NQGQXSWXJYRUP2K5ZRSGHDIKDE/

[cyclist]

PK will be a Cheshire Cat right now....

I imagine mistaTea and Ogg might be too! Have appreciated your analysis mistaTea (and Ogg, although more as entertainment value :p), and nice to see the thesis starting to be proven.

p.s. welcome back

[sb9]

Finally CEO joins the battalion, buying on market of about 830k shares, smart move Sophia..

[Entrep]

Finally CEO joins the battalion, buying on market of about 830k shares, smart move Sophia..

Also rules out any immediate corporate action unfortunately.

[LEMON]

I was literally just thinking if any time to buy from management to prove the turn of the tide, it's now, and look at that lol


Finally CEO joins the battalion, buying on the market of about 830k shares, smart move Sophia.

[Baa_Baa]

Finally CEO joins the battalion, buying on market of about 830k shares, smart move Sophia..

Sorry to be picky, but she already had 908k shares, got 1,738,333 now, and her name is Sophie ;)

Great to see her upping her stake, give investors confidence she's backing the company and herself. Obviously she also sees the value at these subdued prices.

[sb9]

Sorry to be picky, but she already had 908k shares, got 1,738,333 now, and her name is Sophie ;)

Great to see her upping her stake, give investors confidence she's backing the company and herself. Obviously she also sees the value at these subdued prices.

All good, blame it on fast typing, meant put e at the end instead typed in a. Always good to follow insiders especially if its CEO.

And another 2ml lot transacted off market at 19.2c a piece.

[nztx]

Sorry to be picky, but she already had 908k shares, got 1,738,333 now, and her name is Sophie ;)

Great to see her upping her stake, give investors confidence she's backing the company and herself. Obviously she also sees the value at these subdued prices.


Now we know what Ogg & MistaTea were up to while on holiday .. telling Sophie
to up her game with more SKT Pre-Consol bits .. :)

A CEO cant be seen with anything less than 100K of our Duo's favourite bits under her belt - can she ? ;)

[nztx]

It rules out Protocol B but not A.

I'm not too upset. Happy to hold and wait while we're in this uptrend.

Peter Keenan's view on this was to see the share price get broad support before a takeover happens.

Hopefully this can rally to $2.50 in the new few months and then a takeover happens in the $3's.

My patience is correlated to increased gains. The more it goes up the more I am happy to wait.


That's a relief OGG -- we thought we saw some of your bundles go sailing through while you're gone...
off towards those Yankie Vulture fundsters .. ;)

[nztx]

She's on a huge salary. 800k shares is nothing. She better buy more.


Time for you to have another little chat with her ? ;)

Just remind her that neither of you would object to her grabbing up to say 3 or 4%
and loan from petty cash at a cheap rate can be organised .. ;)

[peat]

i never really understood the difference between "buy" & "accumulate" recommendations. aren't they essentially the same?

accumulate = buy in dips.

[mistaTea]

Massive volume again on the NZX. Should well and truly crack 20M shares traded by the end of the day. Good to see the buy interest for SKT now - and Osmium are no doubt still buying some more, if their NZME investment is anything to go by.

We should see more disclosures soon. If they grab 10%+ of Sky it would be a massive vote of confidence which would then attract the attention of other investors.

It looks like a post consolidation SP of $2+ is looking likely now.

If they do a buyback, they could probably further reduce s/o to 130M-140M.

Then if they start a divvy next year of, say, $20M that would be 14c-15c per share.

Double that for FY23, and apply an 8% yield to get a theoretical SP of $3.50 - $3.75.

This is pretty much the PK thesis (that is Peter Kennan btw, not P1ss Kopf from 'The Power of One'...) and he may well be proven right.

[Shareguy]

Looking at Osmium purchases of nzme. Skt could get pushed up a lot more than it’s at now if they continue to buy to the same level. Gives further confidence with Ceo buying, although this signals that there is no complete takeover proposal on the table currently. These thing happens in 3’s so hopefully the silver lake deal gets rejected this week.

[bung5]

This is great , thanks

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/231590

"Black Crane Asia Pacific Opportunities Fund is another holder of just over 5% and said to be interested in more of the stock. "

[Shareguy]

Closed at 19.3. Up , up , up. Looking forward to tomorrow.

[mistaTea]

ASX just hit 19c.

That is a theoretical equivalent of 19.7c on the NZX.

Could well crack 20c by Friday.

[jimdog31]

Looking at Osmium purchases of nzme. Skt could get pushed up a lot more than it’s at now if they continue to buy to the same level. Gives further confidence with Ceo buying, although this signals that there is no complete takeover proposal on the table currently. These thing happens in 3’s so hopefully the silver lake deal gets rejected this week.

Whats your take on the silver lake deal and its effect on the price?

[Quantitative Easing]

The market loves Sophie Moloney.

The market had no faith in Martin Stewart. Naming a stadium, logos on sport jerseys, rugbypass? How much gains did that give to shareholders.

We believe in Sophie and her kaupapa is to serve us shareholders.

[Quantitative Easing]

Also thanks to all the posters here. We have NZ Herald, NBR and Stuff on our side now. They keep pumping out good articles on this stock.

Neil Armstrong wouldn't have stepped on the moon without all the support staff.

[jimdog31]

Also thanks to all the posters here. We have NZ Herald, NBR and Stuff on our side now. They keep pumping out good articles on this stock.

Neil Armstrong wouldn't have stepped on the moon without all the support staff.

I believe this is the true “inflection” point. not earnings or Ebitda related, but the sentiment “inflection”.

Its amazing what can happen once the spin goes from reverse to forwards.

happy holder here.

[Shareguy]

I think the Silverlake deal stinks. They pitched to the Nzru that they can save rugby and potentially bring on up to 60m viewers, players and others to grow the game. My take is that we need to save the game ourselves in NZ first. Very easy to sell 15 percent to offshore interests which in my opinion will devalue the brand. If this deal go’s ahead, the argument could well be in the future to sell 49 percent and then who no’s. Thank goodness David Kirk and the players Association are against the deal. Unfortunately the clubs just see the immediate dollars. In my opinion if Sky loses the TV rights it will be material. It could be positive if they share the rights and therefore the costs.

[LEMON]

I believe this is the true “inflection” point. not earnings or Ebitda related, but the sentiment “inflection”.

Its amazing what can happen once the spin goes from reverse to forwards.

happy holder here.

Agree, I feel this is finally the part it's all coming together and more positive news about property, consolidations, dividends etc to possibly look forward to.
I had not added any more shares for a few months until I started to feel the sentiment was changing so purchased some more today at .188

All the best to everyone

[jimdog31]

Agree, I feel this is finally the part it's all coming together and more positive news about property, consolidations, dividends etc to possibly look forward to.
I had not added any more shares for a few months until I started to feel the sentiment was changing so purchased some more today at .188

All the best to everyone

Macquarie outperform 44c 12 month target.

[sb9]

Macquarie outperform 44c 12 month target.

That's a scary price target based on post share consolidation, I'm sure they meant $4.40 in 12 month time :p

[biker]

Gif worthy

Imaginary gif thoroughly enjoyed.

[biker]

Macquarie outperform 44c 12 month target.

That is a very impressive number based on current levels.

[gbogo]

That is a very impressive number based on current levels.

anyone got a link or screenshot of the 44c target please?

[mistaTea]

$4.40 post consolidation post buyback would represent a market cap of about $600M.

Doable.

[Shareguy]

Osmium have 19.1 percent of NZME at this stage . No further disclosures from them regarding Yesterdays large purchases of Sky shares… so far. If they keep buying till just under 20 percent which is the max I understand they can own before they must issue takeover. So is this the start of something much bigger and what synergies would there be if both company’s were taken over?

[clown]

UBS Group bought 6% of NZME. Wonder who else is eyeing SKT?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZM/378419/353835.pdf

[clown]

Looks like it touched 195c at some point yesterday :t_up:


ASX just hit 19c.

That is a theoretical equivalent of 19.7c on the NZX.

Could well crack 20c by Friday.

[winner69]

UBS Group bought 6% of NZME. Wonder who else is eyeing SKT?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZM/378419/353835.pdf

I don’t think they just bought them

Been dabbling around for a while

What’s Right of Rehypothecate mean

[mistaTea]

Osmium have 19.1 percent of NZME at this stage . No further disclosures from them regarding Yesterdays large purchases of Sky shares… so far. If they keep buying till just under 20 percent which is the max I understand they can own before they must issue takeover. So is this the start of something much bigger and what synergies would there be if both company’s were taken over?

NZME merger could make sense if the strategy is to expand their reach as a straight media play with wholesale broadband deals (rather than become a telco, which they clearly have no appetite for).

NZME pumps out generous cash flows too…

I personally still think telco would realise much more value long term, but NZME is not a completely bonkers idea either.

I don’t think we can infer from Osmium’s investment in sky that there is any grand merger plan here though.

Buybacks and divvy’s the most likely way forward imo.

[winner69]

NZME merger could make sense if the strategy is to expand their reach as a straight media play with wholesale broadband deals (rather than become a telco, which they clearly have no appetite for).

NZME pumps out generous cash flows too…

I personally still think telco would realise much more value long term, but NZME is not a completely bonkers idea either.

I don’t think we can infer from Osmium’s investment in sky that there is any grand merger plan here though.

Buybacks and divvy’s the most likely way forward imo.

Mike Hoskings on SKY would be a hit

And I wish the media would use a different photo of Sophie ….the one they use is so yuck

[Balance]

Osmium have 19.1 percent of NZME at this stage . No further disclosures from them regarding Yesterdays large purchases of Sky shares… so far. If they keep buying till just under 20 percent which is the max I understand they can own before they must issue takeover. So is this the start of something much bigger and what synergies would there be if both company’s were taken over?

Osmium has less than US$200m of AUM. Doubt they will be involved in any takeover activity - initiate via their strategic shareholding maybe.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

We had the first monthly uptrend in over 6 years confirm earlier this year, however it had no follow through. We have now had this monthly uptrend re-confirm on increasing bull volume. Monthly uptrend confirmations after very prolonged downtrends are in my view one of the most significant technical setups around. They signify the end of a long downtrend and are almost always accompanied by a large sentiment shift (meaning the market goes from undervaluing a stock to overvaluing it). Large and rapid moves are regularly observed. It does however carry significant risk of failure given the significant downtrends in place, so one must balance downside risk vs upside potential. The type of trades where you're looking to making half your yearly profit target on or loose a decent chunk...

19.2 resistance broke yesterday. Psychological resistance will likely be seen at 20c. After that there would be 30% upside to the next resistance at 26c.

In my opinion if a takeover is actually seriously on the cards then we will see it happen imminently. Time is of the essence to ensure the price doesn't start running away to the upside. Note: I am not suggesting we will see a takeover happen soon.

Disc: very large position (long term + trading)

[winner69]

A fund manager creeps over 5% after buying from at least last April and speculation abounds

At least all this speculation will keep you guys amused / occupied for a few months …maybe even until Christmas

[Balance]

A fund manager creeps over 5% after buying from at least last April and speculation abounds

At least all this speculation will keep you guys amused / occupied for a few months …maybe even until Christmas

Must say though that CEO buying 830,000 shares with her own cash is noteworthy. Great to see!

[RTM]

Mike Hoskings on SKY would be a hit

And I wish the media would use a different photo of Sophie ….the one they use is so yuck

He’s probably advising them, seems to know everything about everything, even if it changes on a regular basis.

[Akane]

Just a cool 7mil shares offmarket trade at 10:36am

[jimdog31]

Snippet from Macquarie research (fair use applies)

https://i.imgur.com/yolZzPQ.jpg


"interest above this level" likely implies at least $50m.

With the cash on hand it's likely they will have close to $100m by the AGM.

Will they buy back or just dish this out as a special dividend?

I still think that the property sale is tied to some sort of corporate deal or activity.

Colliers still haven't promoted studio 1 for sale, which is weird. Either they have a buyer and or deal lined up and are just ironing out the details.

From the colliers AD

"“However, the location also offers exciting potential to explore alternative uses. Astute developers will consider the property’s possibilities for future mixed-use activities. Subject to rezoning, these could include residential projects or other alternatives such as retirement or education facilities."


Could be unrelated, but OCA on the 23/08 announced they were considering a secured bond offer.........


SKY TV : "Colliers New Zealand will now complete a targeted Expression of Interest
Campaign with potential purchasers which will close at 4pm on Monday 23
August 2021"


Then on the 30th OCA announced a $100m bond issue

The proposed bond issue will:

- Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisition of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)

Coincidence?

[snigmac]

The NZD30m valuation for the properties appears alot higher than the book value of NZD13M contained in the recent FY reports.

[mistaTea]

Could be unrelated, but OCA on the 23/08 announced they were considering a secured bond offer.........


SKY TV : "Colliers New Zealand will now complete a targeted Expression of Interest
Campaign with potential purchasers which will close at 4pm on Monday 23
August 2021"


Then on the 30th OCA announced a $100m bond issue

The proposed bond issue will:

- Help facilitate further growth, including the current pipeline and potential acquisiton of new development sits (brownfield and/or greenfield)

Coincidence?

$100M! We’ll take it!

I do think the campus will sell for way above book value. Over double book value.

[mistaTea]

It's possible a S&P has already been signed conditional on finance.

What else would you put on that side besides a Rest Home.

Excellent conspiracy theory, well played.

I would be really shocked if it was not converted into a retirement village. Prime real estate for it. Huge site.

And having sky stick around for a little while producing rent for them is an added bonus while they cement their plans.

Not saying OCA are def buying the property - but it is not loony tunes to think they could be either.

[jimdog31]

I would be really shocked if it was not converted into a retirement village. Prime real estate for it. Huge site.

And having sky stick around for a little while producing rent for them is an added bonus while they cement their plans.

Not saying OCA are def buying the property - but it is not loony tunes to think they could be either.

The timing of the announcements via both companies is Gas on the fire.

If I am wrong, its a pretty amazing coincidence!

[jimdog31]

https://images.oceaniahealthcare.co.nz/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/30093020/210830-OCA-Bond-Presentation-vFINAL.pdf

https://i.imgur.com/GA0R91T.jpg


I believe you!

But then again, I believe everything written on here.

Now, shall I buy more in OCA or SKY ?? :confused::t_up:

[bottomfeeder]

Now, shall I buy more in OCA or SKY ?? :confused::t_up:

Well if its true, and Sky SP has risen on someone sussing out the deal, I would think OCA will not be getting the best deal around. Expect OCA SP to go down and Sky to go up. However as its only dreaming, sit tight and do nothing.

[Quantitative Easing]

Wouldn't be surprised if that site sells for well over $40m. Auckland land is selling like hot cakes these days. Pretty much only the big boys do developments in the Isthmus these days cause of how competitive land in the isthmus is.

[mistaTea]

Wouldn't be surprised if that site sells for well over $40m. Auckland land is selling like hot cakes these days. Pretty much only the big boys do developments in the Isthmus these days cause of how competitive land in the isthmus is.

I would think double that…the site is absolutely huge.

[Joshuatree]

Just a cool 7mil shares offmarket trade at 10:36am

Seems like alot but there are re 1.74 billion shares on issue(plus any poppies etc)

[Getty]

The commission from that sale will put some fire into his Lava Lava!

[jimdog31]

Volume just hit 23,000,000!!!

[jimdog31]

23m?

(travolta.gif)

So weird, its now showing 17m...... 6m went missing

[mistaTea]

So weird, its now showing 17m...... 6m went missing

So you gave me a stiffy for nothing.

[jimdog31]

So you gave me a stiffy for nothing.

Mate MrsT should be taking care of that even if theres only 18m traded! 19.5 here we come

[jimdog31]

I'm surprised at the amount of on market buying. Retail holders getting bought out.

Its like a reverse short.

At some point retail will run low!

[Akane]

Its like a reverse short.

At some point retail will run low!

Paper hands being shaken.

DISC: hodling since $2

[mistaTea]

19.5c now...

Need to hit 19.7c to be at parity with ASX SP...

[Akane]

The temptation to post a gif right now is overwhelming...

Please don't.

[jimdog31]

The temptation to post a gif right now is overwhelming...

Please no OGG..... its like you have stockholm syndrome with ST jail!

(shawshankbrooks.gif)

[winner69]

409 went through at 19.7

[snigmac]

Can you guys smell what is brewing? 20c and higher, here we come :D

[jimdog31]

19.7!

I can't hold it in!

i reckon if we bust through 20 there should be a one time GIF license allowed for OGG!!!

[Getty]

19.7!

I can't hold it in!

https://youtu.be/eA4_O3oeJCw

[Not The Chosen One]

The temptation to post a gif right now is overwhelming...

Didn't think gifs were banned on this site.
Release the Cage!

[Alpha]

This is nuts only just getting in front of the computer today.20M shares already traded.

I've just well open a well deserved why not. After only a few years of losing my hair buy more Sky shares. Wondering if I will ever see a profit again the days have final come and the market seems to be back in love with SKY. Thank you to all the posters here that have kept me true and provided some much detail analysis. As well as the odd gif which I still believe should one day be turned into a film.

Cheers and beers long may this continue.

[Almost-confused]

19.7c is my breakeven point... Go baby go. Like you, I was wondering if I was going to get back in the black with this one.

I have a strong conviction in sky so I've held looking term... Just needed the market to wake up

[Joshuatree]

That's a little over 1% there.Hope other instos are buying too.Got an exit plan/price Alpha?

[Bobdn]

Half cent increments at 20c and above.

Every pip is $8k for me.


Brilliant, every pip for me is $88.5 and I'm excited. $8000 a pip and i'd have to be medicated.

[sb9]

Sheesh, almost 25mln shares traded so far. 20c just matter of time me thinks, every pip after that is worth abt 2k for me.

[mistaTea]

We are defining a ‘Pip’ as a 1 cent increase?

[jimdog31]

We are defining a ‘Pip’ as a 1 cent increase?

Nah i think we are talking once it hits 20c, 0.5c.... its then a 5 figure amount for me!

[mistaTea]

Nah i think we are talking once it hits 20c, 0.5c.... its then a 5 figure amount for me!

$13.5K for me…

MissusTea may even get out the crotchless panties at that point…

[Slim]

1800 per pip :), consider a 'pip' as going from 17.5 - 17.6 so 0.1 cents.

Some big holders here obviously, congrats to all. Personally I am still waiting for the property sale and love the suggestion that this lines up with the bond offer. I had an assumed valuation of 65 - 90 million for the property so would love to see us go throught the .25 cent ceiling either with that or prior to.

[snigmac]

A few more big trades today, might not see 20c today, hopefully soon though.

[mistaTea]

19.8c!!!

The panties comin’ off!

[jimdog31]

19.8c!!!

The panties comin’ off!

30m today..... Someone came in and did 2,000,000 at 19.9 last minute, which took out the 19.6 bid.

At this rate there wont be much retail qtys left for a buyback....

[jimdog31]

30m today..... Someone came in and did 2,000,000 at 19.9 last minute, which took out the 19.6 bid.

At this rate there wont be much retail qtys left for a buyback....

Correction 33m. 2%

[jimdog31]

At 20c this stock is still ridiculously cheap.

Enterprise valuation (after property sale) is pretty much $250m. Roughly 2X Ebita.

Can she go 30c without news?

Now that weve hade a sentiment "inflection" i dont see why not.

Assuming we could potentially see money returned from the property sale is news enough

[mistaTea]

At 20c this stock is still ridiculously cheap.



Considering a month ago you would have dropped your pants and taken a takeover offer at 19c/share this is big progress mate!

[mistaTea]

Every pip is $8k for me.

If you consider a 'pip' to be 0.1c movements (the smallest possible increment)...do you now own 8M shares mate?

[jimdog31]

Further interesting from Page 27 is their current portfolio summary. OCA i believe is known for its Care Beds strategy. If you have a look at its current villages in the greater Auckland region they have a lot care beds in the North Shore, and not many in Central auckland.

They also have 2 Developments under construction in Auckland, Waimarie and Lady allum.

From what I remember reading on the OCA forum a while back from posters I hugely respect there were comments made about how difficult a process it would have been to get the Waimarie construction consented.

OCA has the demand, and the inhouse Consenting IP to fasttrack a development if they buy SKY HQ

[Joshuatree]

30m today..... Someone came in and did 2,000,000 at 19.9 last minute, which took out the 19.6 bid.

At this rate there wont be much retail qtys left for a buyback....

That's re 2% of the company and s/p increasing ,good signs.

[snigmac]

Further interesting from Page 27 is their current portfolio summary. OCA i believe is known for its Care Beds strategy. If you have a look at its current villages in the greater Auckland region they have a lot care beds in the North Shore, and not many in Central auckland.

They also have 2 Developments under construction in Auckland, Waimarie and Lady allum.

From what I remember reading on the OCA forum a while back from posters I hugely respect there were comments made about how difficult a process it would have been to get the Waimarie construction consented.

OCA has the demand, and the inhouse Consenting IP to fasttrack a development if they buy SKY HQ

The easiest way to get a answer is to call up and ask for vendor price expectations. If its indicated to be for 30m, then it's unlikely to be connected to OCA. If it's over e.g. 50m, then maybe..

[Quantitative Easing]

Comment on NBR:

12917

[mistaTea]

Sounds like MT

Nope not me.

Which article?

[jimdog31]

Further interesting from Page 27 is their current portfolio summary. OCA i believe is known for its Care Beds strategy. If you have a look at its current villages in the greater Auckland region they have a lot care beds in the North Shore, and not many in Central auckland.

They also have 2 Developments under construction in Auckland, Waimarie and Lady allum.

From what I remember reading on the OCA forum a while back from posters I hugely respect there were comments made about how difficult a process it would have been to get the Waimarie construction consented.

OCA has the demand, and the inhouse Consenting IP to fasttrack a development if they buy SKY HQ

Summerset heritage park is also 300m away, which could help with consenting

https://www.summerset.co.nz/find-a-village/auckland/summerset-at-heritage-park/

[jimdog31]

Has anybody else noticed Sky spamming ads everywhere right now?

NZhearld, Stuff, broadband ads etc like 24/7 ever since the HBO deal.

Sure have, they are going for the throat. The HBO content on Neon is up there man. sick of subtitled foreign language films on Netflix , it doesnt even come close to NEON.

[Quantitative Easing]

Nope not me.

Which article?

Go spam the comment section on this article. Show the real power of the SKT sharetrader community. That way they will post more positive articles about sky. Been averaging about one every other day. They know sky articles will get clicks.

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/231590

[Quantitative Easing]

I found out who it was. Click below for clue:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4216-SKT-Sky-Network-Television-Limited&p=905853&viewfull=1#post905853


Hahaha attest?

[mistaTea]

Yep.

I'm pretty sure snigmac is another MT account. Look at the registration date.

You are a twit.

[jimdog31]

You are a twit.

You two are so cute :p

[snigmac]

Hopefully Sky can get to and past 20c tomorrow.

[snigmac]

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519199/nz-shares-settle-after-action-packed-earnings-season.html



Inflection point?

Who came up with this?

Has anything actually changed?

The stock was just way over sold. People thought it was going bankrupt but it never did. That's the inflection point if anything.

Sky just went from a 100m+ loss in FY2020 to a decent profit in FY2021. On top of this, it's proving growth with it's streaming and broadband services, and satellite hasn't dropped significantly. Massive inflection point!

[snigmac]

Those were non-cash write downs.

Streaming growth has been steady, broadband just started (already signaled no profit from revenue), satellite has been steady too. No real change.

The inflection point was that this stock was sold down, at one point, to a market cap of $90m. Shareholders loaded up on equity after the placement and now it's slowly going back to fair value (30c). Kicker is the property sale and takeover potential which adds another 20c of value for a 50c price target for punters.

Write downs are concessions that the company lost money and had to write it off as lost investment. It was pretty dire in 2020... from memory

[Quantitative Easing]

Write downs are concessions that the company lost money and had to write it off as lost investment. It was pretty dire in 2020... from memory

Lol MrT posting on his second account...

[Quantitative Easing]

The best investment/decision Sky did was buy that piece of land in Mt Wellington all those years ago. Back then the area was undesired and rundown. Now that area has become very popular with families and people wanting to enter the isthmus property market.

[Habits]

Where are the buyers today, only 1m wanted but nearly 2m for sale. 70m traded this week and price up 20 percent

[Slim]

I use asb market depth and there's no way it's indicative of what's happening on a daily basis at the moment. Without seeing another update on substantial holders, one wonders who's buying and who's selling; just hope the run up continues until the next news se we see a lift on the higher base.

[jimdog31]

Where are the buyers today, only 1m wanted but nearly 2m for sale. 70m traded this week and price up 20 percent

These guys havent been lining up with limit buys, mostly at market and off market. They dont really care about one or two pips.

Thinking on this more - they only have $200m AUM and they probably get a fee based on capital increases, they are actively buying more to get the price up… like they did with NZME , id say they wont stop buying until its reaches a level that pays quite nicely on their previous DCA buying.

Previous to the disclosure they were buying with stealth and so they did it over a longer time frame with almost no1 noticing. now that the cats out of the bag they have significantly ramped up.

[clown]

Where do you check your market depth? I use ASB sec and Tradilia App but it's quite delayed.


These guys havent been lining up with limit buys, mostly at market and off market. They dont really care about one or two pips.

Thinking on this more - they only have $200m AUM and they probably get a fee based on capital increases, they are actively buying more to get the price up… like they did with NZME , id say they wont stop buying until its reaches a level that pays quite nicely on their previous DCA buying.

Previous to the disclosure they were buying with stealth and so they did it over a longer time frame with almost no1 noticing. now that the cats out of the bag they have significantly ramped up.

[jimdog31]

Where do you check your market depth? I use ASB sec and Tradilia App but it's quite delayed.

I use directbroking.

[jimdog31]

Oh yes! Very tired today!

Loving reading the OCA forum though. Not too keen on the Blacks are they?!

It may well be that OCA are using the debt raised for something else...but I love the rationale the posters provide for how they can absolutely rule out an acquisition of the Mt Wellington campus!

So many LOLs! Like Ogg said if you look through their portfolio there is some fairly drab villages in there.

They have also just bought land in Pukekohe - I definitely would not say this is a "premium" location

Not to mention Summerset has heritage 300m away.... Nobody has responded to me about that!

[curious zebra]

woohoooooo!

[sb9]

20 centsssssssssssss

Nice one, hope we can hold onto that level..

[Alpha]

I had previously believed within 12mth from DEC2020 we would get to 20cents. So very happy today 3months prior we have hit. Yes all going well it holds and everything suggests it will.

Thoughts on SP by AGM?

[mistaTea]

Wow this is intense.

If it hits 30c I am pretty sure missusTea is going to want to peg me again.

[Alpha]

Wow this is intense.

If it hits 30c I am pretty sure missusTea is going to want to peg me again.

Haha she now knows how deep you are in SKY. For a while there I can imagine you wernt saying much about your SKY shares.

Crazy how times have changed

[Getty]

Wow this is intense.

If it hits 30c I am pretty sure missusTea is going to want to peg me again.

She's going Commando from now on!

[clown]

No gifs for a while and we get Nic and Jack as a treat too :t_up:


20c


Congrats guys, well deserved, well deserved.

[Vitamin_A]

I wonder now if the share price will increase in half cent increments?
Pre consolidation and property sale it's still worth north of $0.30c on earnings I reckon.

[sb9]

I wonder now if the share price will increase in half cent increments?
Pre consolidation and property sale it's still worth north of $0.30c on earnings I reckon.

Yes, of course. That's the sole reason we're all screaming for 20c breakthrough.

[Akane]

20c

https://i.imgur.com/RM5zygy.gif

Congrats guys, well deserved, well deserved.

Oh god why why why must you jinx it!

[jimdog31]

Yes, of course. That's the sole reason we're all screaming for 20c breakthrough.

When do we lose the 0.5 increments?

[Getty]

Oh god why why why must you jinx it!

If its good enough for missusT to take hers off, its good enough for Ogg to put his fancies on.

[Quantitative Easing]

Crossed a psychological resistance. This could gap up now going up in 0.5 cent increments.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIOJdMdS56k

[gbogo]

so the bid / offer spread has just increased 5x, which makes it much more expensive to trade, at least until the consolidation. (gone from 0.5% to 2.5% : 0.1 / 20 to 0.5 /20 ).

[thebusinessman]

Probably the most satisfying GIF I have ever seen. If that one's not allowed then I don't even want to be on this planet anymore.

[HCR20]

I've been in since around Feb 2021. SKT was clearly oversold based on emotional rather than rational factors. Has been a bit hairy watching the share price gradually erode over thia year, but heartened to see my thesis play out. I saw this as valued at around 23-24c p share when I bought it at around 17c. Will be interesting to watch it go!

[sb9]

When do we lose the 0.5 increments?

Once we hit 50c.

[Not The Chosen One]

Once we hit 50c.

So next Friday

[sb9]

So next Friday

Haha, that'll drive everyone nuts :t_up::D

[clown]

I just calculated my return at 0.5 and my hearts working overtime, might need to step out for a walk hahaha


Haha, that'll drive everyone nuts :t_up::D

[sb9]

I just calculated my return at 0.5 and my hearts working overtime, might need to step out for a walk hahaha

I would be happy with 30c for a start and from trading depth it looks so near now..

[mistaTea]

I would be happy with 30c for a start and from trading depth it looks so near now..

At 30c it's BANGARANG!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G87uIh9ISWU

[Orange Juice]

Been holding since 9th September 2020. Not a bad way to end a painful 12 months.

Ogg, feel like it's almost time for another GOT themed GIF.

[sb9]

We had the first monthly uptrend in over 6 years confirm earlier this year, however it had no follow through. We have now had this monthly uptrend re-confirm on increasing bull volume. Monthly uptrend confirmations after very prolonged downtrends are in my view one of the most significant technical setups around. They signify the end of a long downtrend and are almost always accompanied by a large sentiment shift (meaning the market goes from undervaluing a stock to overvaluing it). Large and rapid moves are regularly observed. It does however carry significant risk of failure given the significant downtrends in place, so one must balance downside risk vs upside potential. The type of trades where you're looking to making half your yearly profit target on or loose a decent chunk...

19.2 resistance broke yesterday. Psychological resistance will likely be seen at 20c. After that there would be 30% upside to the next resistance at 26c.

In my opinion if a takeover is actually seriously on the cards then we will see it happen imminently. Time is of the essence to ensure the price doesn't start running away to the upside. Note: I am not suggesting we will see a takeover happen soon.

Disc: very large position (long term + trading)

JTH, can you give TA/Chart perspective based on today's move.

[snigmac]

Well deserved guys. I think the next threshold to clear will be 25c roughly (before we get to 30c).

[uravgtrader]

21.5c!! Go you beauty!

My breakeven is 22.3c!

[Akane]

Well deserved guys. I think the next threshold to clear will be 25c roughly (before we get to 30c).

Hey MrT, a lot of resistance up till 25c, hopefully it'll be broken

[mistaTea]

Hey MrT, a lot of resistance up till 25c, hopefully it'll be broken

If trading volume ends up being anything like yesterday I'll be damned if it doesn't get over 23cps by the end of the day.

[cyclist]

My breakeven is 22.3c!

I imagine there will be quite a few retail holders who reluctantly averaged down via the cap raise who will be happy to drop their holding once it gets at or near breakeven. Might slow things down around this level I suspect.

[jimdog31]

I imagine there will be quite a few retail holders who reluctantly averaged down via the cap raise who will be happy to drop their holding once it gets at or near breakeven. Might slow things down around this level I suspect.

Id say the majority of those holders gave up a while back. The only ones left are represented on this forum for the last year:p

[winner69]

21.5c!! Go you beauty!

My breakeven is 22.3c!

Must look it up but from memory mine is 13.4 cents or something like that …cool eh

[Alpha]

Winner you Slydog. I thought you didn't like this one. Was only an assumption. It is nice to see a lot of new posters in this Thread and for mainly positive things.

[clown]

ASX opened at 0.205 :t_up:

[mistaTea]

Must look it up but from memory mine is 13.4 cents or something like that …cool eh

I think that depends on how many shares you purchased...

[jimdog31]

OCA has dropped today to 154.... Lol must be the SKY inspired conspiracy we started over there

[mistaTea]

OCA has dropped today to 154.... Lol must be the SKY inspired conspiracy we started over there

I am not sure all of the OCA posters like my...feedback...

[LEMON]

Someone is trying to attempt at pumping SKT on Sharesies Facebook site, lol

[nztx]

21.5 pennies on 20 min delay :)

but buy/sell quotes show a bit less .. time for a brief breather or to stack a few more under the belt ? ;)


high today 21.5
Low 19.9

on approaching 6.5 m across the line

[Alpha]

Being compared to ATM is quite funny. But in saying that ATM has been smashed so had SKY.


So maybe the merger is A2 & SKT hhaha

[mistaTea]

I bought my 2 year old son 18,676 shares for his 'portfolio'.

He is the first in the family to show a profit...brings a tear to my eye.

He is now 'up' 4%!

Already a better investor that his father...

[mikelee]

I think that depends on how many shares you purchased...

Exactly. I topped up @ 16.6 last month and now regret not buying more when it dropped to 15.8.
Anyway, happy with the size of my holding can't be too greedy. Just waiting for a healthy dividend to kick in so I can quit my day job :p

[LEMON]

Being compared to ATM is quite funny. But in saying that ATM has been smashed so had SKY.


So maybe the merger is A2 & SKT hhaha

Agree, it's not the kind of speech the people want, they don't want comparison, sentiment or a good balance sheet. They want rockets, diamonds and pictures of gainz, that's the modern war cry lol

[RTM]

Further to this post I have dug a little deeper into Osmium's accumulation of NZME to try and get an understanding of their Modus Operandi, their strategy.

H


Interesting.
Are there any others you could do to confirm that is the way they go about things ?

[jimdog31]

Interesting.
Are there any others you could do to confirm that is the way they go about things ?

I don't believe there are any other NZX examples....

Its important to remember these guys ARENT a BIG whale. Which means they don't take positions loosely or lightly..... I think this puts my pressure on them to execute!

However the more I look into NZME the more i realise they have had similar core issues to deal with and BOTH have had positions taken, sop I cant see any reason why they wouldn't deploy the same strategy....

check out this article recently

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jarden-upgrades-nzme-stock-to-buy-on-positive-momentum/QDP4PMLTOL2I6D35BMO4PYL5KA/


Note some similarities from the article...


- decline in print advertising (decline in sattelite)
- Half a million subsribers (1 Million subcribers)
- Readership growth 15 months (increase in streaming)
- Sees a return to dividends or buyback (same same)


AND YET Arie Dekker increased his analysis to BUY from 99c to $1.04.....

Not sure why Arie loves NZME & not sky.

[Joshuatree]

dazatoN on H/c has a few charts re whose buying and this
"Latest broker data attached
buyers- all pro money and instos
sellers- all retail"

[dreamcatcher]

Certainly nice to see some healthy green ..........well done holders :p

[silverblizzard888]

Declining revenues
Declining subscribers
Improved margins
Stead turn around
Consistent profits

My current price target 25 cents

[RTM]

I don't believe there are any other NZX examples....


Ok, thanks for link.
Disc: Happy Holder @ 13.9

[winner69]

This says Sky TV broadband broken

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300398873/internet-outage-affects-customers-across-nz

[mistaTea]

This says Sky TV broadband broken

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300398873/internet-outage-affects-customers-across-nz

Entire Vocus Network down in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch due to a DDoS attack...

Lucky Sky has hardly any broadband customers!!! :D

[DDog]

Hallelujah it is back!!!

[DDog]

Vocus is so sh*t.

How's their $700m IPO going, just lol.

First time fibre has been down for me in 2 years

[Entrep]

First time fibre has been down for me in 2 years

Likewise, I was seriously wondering wtf is going on!?

[Alpha]

Who what why Block us at 21cents. Cant handle the jandal.

Common long timers you have waited this long for a return. HODL

[DDog]

Denial of service attack takes down NZ's third-largest internet provider

[Akane]

back to 20c, I blame Ogg.

[curious zebra]

Great way for a large buyer to keep the price down. Buy up large at under 20c as they've been doing, then stick a blocking sell order in at 21c, which forces anyone smaller who wants to sell to go under their sell price. Clever! But a pain!

[Alpha]

Just weak hands no need to stress.

[nztx]

back to 20c, I blame Ogg.


he's probably busy mopping up spillage from some weak hands A.T.M ;)

[pierre]

https://i.imgur.com/rEHUGW2.jpg

What you reckon guys? Hmm, hmm?

OCA have just closed their bond offer at $100 million at 3.3% - oversubscribed by $25m - so there's some dosh available if they want to talk turkey with SKT.

[mistaTea]

A poster on HC shared something that Sky seem to have snuck into the AR:

https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/rugbypass-caput.6262690/?post_id=55757596

Looks like the streaming arm of RP has been sold off! And they haven't mentioned anything?

I then found this on Page 69 of the AR...

"In 2021 the Group sold the streaming business ofRugbyPass to Premier Sports Ltd (refer note 28).In separating out the RugbyPass CGU from Sky’s, all of the RugbyPass acquisition goodwill of $38.5 million was allocated to the RugbyPass CGU as it was management’s view that, in conjunction with the factors described above, the existing Sky business had not received any material synergy benefits from the acquisition of RugbyPass. This goodwill was subsequently impaired by $27.5 million at 30 June 2020."

Considering how much we paid to buy RP - this is a pretty big development that I would have thought they should tell the market about?

After selling the streaming part of RP, that leaves us with the RugbyPass newspaper...


Hmmmmmmmmm...newspapers...

[Slim]

After seeing your post on HC, ironically a 'news paper' company has a market cap of close to 200 million.
Skt has debt facility of 200 million (pre property sale)
Any idea of their debt levels?

[jimdog31]

Sorry to repost this but for some reason it disappeared?? I went to check on it and it was gone lol.

I have dug a little deeper into Osmium's accumulation of NZME to try and get an understanding of their Modus Operandi, their strategy.


Here's their buying over the last 10 months to get to 19%


Date of Disclosure % Qty Accum QTy $ $ per share
07/09/2020 8.78% 17,274,09517,274,095 $8,605,246 37c
18/09/2020 11.63% 5,597,615 22,871,710 $2,260,768 40c
05/10/2020 13.22% 3,130,321 26,002,031 $1,406,647 44c
11/01/2021 14.26% 2,173,589 28,175,620 $1,291,985 59c
27/01/2021 15.979% 3,393,604 31,569,224 $2,360,042 69c
23/02/2021 17.028% 2,072,167 33,641,391 $1,447,383 70c
27/04/2021 18.03% 1,991,489 35,632,880 $1,570,771 79C
04/07/2021 19.1% 2,111,288 37,744,168 $1,519,141 72c


So total shares 37,744,168 for $20,461,983 @ 54c DCA


Market price of NZME is now $1.00


So a tidy capital Profit of $17,282,185 - I wonder how much Fees they will get off that....As a % of their total AUM off 1 investment its pretty tidy!


It's important to know that the following funds REDUCED their holding during this 10 Months


- Aucap asset management
- Forager funds managemnt
- Spheria Asset management
- Morgan Stanley
- Telstra


SO what can we see from the above


1) They saw an undervalued company
2) Bought in stealth until 8.97% at a highly reduced rate.
3) continued buying over a sustained period, at increasing rates
4) Effectively bought on share price weakness to sustain the share price and Protect their DCA.
5) A lot of other whales got out.


I'm not saying they'll use the same strategy with SKY but humor me for a moment!


If they took the same approach with SKY.....


Lets say they target the value the business at 35c-40c.


I believe they will keep buying until approximately 75% of this value. so 25c-30c


Based on their shareholder notice they are at 99,566,028 DCA of $0.17 so another 100,000,000 at say $0.25 will mean they have


200,000,000 or 11.5% @ 21c


If the share price pushes to 35c they'll have a capital profit of $28m


Once these levels are reached I believe it will set a floor under the price as sentiment will have changed & not too mention the following factors


1) Property sale and potential windfall
2) No signals that other whales (apart from kiltearn) are wanting out, looks to be a lot of retail
3) In fact other Whales are still BUYING! FMR, Black Crane and ACC (more upwards pressure)
4) A large shareholding puts them at the table for any "transactions" they are considered "activists"
5) Share consolidation coming.
6) they will continue buying on an share price weakness as identified with NZME


If we see Off market trades dry up in the next few days/weeks it will confirm 2)


Moral of the story? I'm still going to be buying at these levels as I believe this will continue to run to 35c.

[mistaTea]

After seeing your post on HC, ironically a 'news paper' company has a market cap of close to 200 million.
Skt has debt facility of 200 million (pre property sale)
Any idea of their debt levels?

NZME have been doing a great job of paying down debt.

As of June 2021, long term debt is down to about $30M.

If Osmium do see an eventual merger as the end game, it is smart how they are doing it. They are buying in and forcing up the quoted value of Sky. Once they do the buyback and reinstate the divvy the quoted value will be a lot higher than now.

Then you do a straight merger based on relative sizes using equity.

Not predicting that this will be the case...but it is one possibility.

[Slim]

Sort of missed a fund manager prompted a buying spree
All of what she said caused a price decrease

[mistaTea]

ASX closed @20.05cps…same as NZX.

SKT.AX up 10.81% today with approx 3M shares traded.

I expect some more disclosures on Monday or Tuesday at the latest.

[clown]

There were 2 small off market trades at the close on nzx



1
849
5:10:27 pm
20.5
100,000
$20,500
Off market


2
848
5:04:14 pm
20.5
10,715
$2,196
Off market

[clown]

Sky had a mention in this article too...

More and more "broadcast" television (plus of course the likes of Netflix) is delivered over Chorus fibre, and that's only going to increase as when Sky releases its fibre-capable new box next June. A Freeview insider told me that the free-to-air joint venture - which contracts most of its broadcasting services to Kordia - is business planning on the basis that all television channels will be delivered over the internet by 2035. For most of us, it will come a lot sooner.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/kordia-halves-in-size-as-it-sells-its-australian-arm/MRN7G2MEO2OI6VNXHWKYC5REPY/

[Rustycage]

Well, it’s been a fairly good week for SKT holders after a fairly long period of frustration. Going to enjoy a nice single malt this evening to celebrate

[mistaTea]

Dont get me wrong bro, i want you to be right!

One thing is for sure, with increased whale activity, and the share price heading in the right direction, i reckon theres more M+A possibilites than what we were praying for before!!

Yes, sometimes a lift in market value can make an asset more attractive.

Strange when you think they would lock in a deal when the SP is at rock bottom.

If someone is keen to buy Sky, they probably could have got it for $500M (28c/share).

Now that the SP is rallying so much they would probably need to be 35c+ now.

Same business, same earning power and potential - just different market sentiment.

[mistaTea]

Combined business could be valued north of $5 per share post consolidation…

Then the rooting is really going to start…

[winner69]

Might be happy selling that property at book value

[mistaTea]

My guess is that Osmium Partners LLC has been behind all this pulling the strings.

They probably see a NZME merger happening at some stage.

They're putting all the pieces together slowly.

Can't fool Ogg tho.

Pump the sky SP up to intrinsic value then do a straight equity merger with the paper. No cash needed.

Genius.

[jimdog31]

Vendors don't want script. They want cash. They have offshore debt to pay down after the Vocus Australia deal.

Sky has the capacity, might as well pay in cash.

would a combined sky + nzme have more borrowing capacity though? surely?

[mistaTea]

Vendors don't want script. They want cash. They have offshore debt to pay down after the Vocus Australia deal.

Sky has the capacity, might as well pay in cash.

Vocus will want cash.

But I am talking about NZME which is currently a listed business.

So they buy Orcon retail assets. SP rockets to $5 or even $6 per share…(post consolidation)

Then if you also want to add the newspaper to the Arsenal you buy it using Sky shares. The NZME shareholders will be more than happy with that.

Sky ends up being a large telco and media entity - fit to challenge Spark and Vodafone.

[mistaTea]

yeah, the script play comes after. At the moment Sky shares are worthless. They need to pump their valuation.

NZME takeover would be 2-3 years down the road. I see it happening though.

Considering the government wants to merge TVNZ and RNZ…

Sky buying/merging with other entities is inevitable.

[jimdog31]

yeah, the script play comes after. At the moment Sky shares are worthless. They need to pump their valuation.

NZME takeover would be 2-3 years down the road. I see it happening though.

Comcast would probably wanna step in before that though right? broadband is core for them, newspaper/radio not so much.

would they see the osmium play and try and move sooner?

[uravgtrader]

If the CEO has recently bought a bunch of shares, does that mean a takeover can't happen in the next wee while? I thought I saw someone mention Protocol B or something.

[jimdog31]

Anything is better than nothing.

Stock has been sitting at 14-16 for nearly two years.

All of a sudden it seems like something might be happening now.

Stock could exploded on any corperate news like this.

Hopefully CEO knows how to make a deal.

This will be her big test.

It certainly makes the Jarden involvement make sense.

and bringing James bishop in .

and having an interim CFO with no ad or serious interest in replacing him (wtf?)

and moving martin on.

Both the investor day, and the results webcast you can tell they are saying alot by what they are not saying!

Sophie buying shares obviously took care of protocol B , but definitely doesnt exclude any of the above posts.

correct me if im wrong, she was barred from buying before results aye? was that her first opportunity to buy since what date approx?

If she pulls it off shes either going to be CEO of a much larger entity or be hot property on the open market wherever complex M+A activity is going on.

[mistaTea]

If the CEO has recently bought a bunch of shares, does that mean a takeover can't happen in the next wee while? I thought I saw someone mention Protocol B or something.
Def means no deal is in the works right now…

But in time, I think some kind of a deal is inevitable.

[mistaTea]

But yeah, she is "senior management" and would obviously know what's going on to some degree.

She will be 100% across any material events or deals. Absolutely no way ELT can buy shares while the board is about to sign a major deal.

[jimdog31]

She will be 100% across any material events or deals. Absolutely no way ELT can buy shares while the board is about to sign a major deal.

Shes also director of 8 sky subsidiaries….

[jimdog31]

She will be 100% across any material events or deals. Absolutely no way ELT can buy shares while the board is about to sign a major deal.

What about an acquisition?

[mistaTea]

What about an acquisition?
Same thing applies. No way can ELT be trading in sky shares if ANY kind of major deal is in the works.

[jimdog31]

Same thing applies. No way can ELT be trading in sky shares if ANY kind of major deal is in the works.

What time frame are we talking?

[mistaTea]

What time frame are we talking?

Don’t know.

But there is still hope…

Jarden could still be working on options. They will no doubt bring a proposal to the board soon (these guys will want any deal so they can get their fee!).

If Jarden are still looking at options and nothing has been pitched yet then I don’t see why Sophie couldn’t buy shares…

[jimdog31]

Don’t know.

But there is still hope…

Jarden could still be working on options. They will no doubt bring a proposal to the board soon (these guys will want any deal so they can get their fee!).

If Jarden are still looking at options and nothing has been pitched yet then I don’t see why Sophie couldn’t buy shares…

Read the securities policy here

https://www.sky.co.nz/documents/117005/718642/MK_CorporateGovernance_Sky_Securities_Trading_Poli cy.pdf/e77fd525-ed7e-3cb5-aa6b-3c310761a1ef?t=1602032411876

it would also imply that a deal wasnt done on the property if shes buying?

[jimdog31]

When she was appointed CEO she never disclosed her holdings.

Shareholders have not approved her so why would she get all the info and secret board talk. That would be against the company constitution.

Remember, she's a replacement CEO under short notice. A fill in.

No directors have made any trades. Seems strange that none of them would do some token purchases right now???

I'm not saying anything but just pointinig out the fact that it's possible she doesn't know and she doesn't need to know.

If the Chair or other directors came out and did some trades then yeah, 100% wouldn't be a deal happening. But in this situation it is a little cloudy.

Valid point mate. Would that also apply to the negotiations on the property?

[Shareguy]

The takeover may already be happening. Ownership of NZME and Sky combined would allow advertisers a one stop shop for both print, Radio and TV. NZME already have a first class news service in print and radio so could bring the Hosk back to SKY to compete head on with TVNZ and discovery(3). Centralised news cost like news hub. Sky did try many years ago with Paul Holmes.

[snigmac]

I think most instos will have a valuation of Sky between 23-30c atm and arent likely to let their shares go at the prices we have past recently(baring some significant changes in circumstances). With international events moving away from New Zealand, this is also good news for sky (as the only way kiwis can attend/watch is via streaming). The border closure may be in place for some time so this would be good for Sky for some time longer.

[winner69]

Been anything of substance in the last dozen pages or so …haven’t the wherewithal to go through them.

[Baa_Baa]

NZ On Air annual "Where are the Audiences" survey and Report 2021 (https://www.nzonair.govt.nz/research/where-are-audiences-2021/)

[mistaTea]

Been anything of substance in the last dozen pages or so …haven’t the wherewithal to go through them.

Yes. We have absolutely cracked the case this time…

[mistaTea]

Some rookies probably think that the simplest explanation for how Sky will proceed is the most likely - buybacks and dividends.

But they have not absorbed the lessons freely given on this forum!!!

OBVIOUSLY the more complicated route is more likely!

Despite the CEO recently buying some shares on market, Sky are in some complicated negotiation with Vocus Group to spin off the NZ retail assets. Sky will buy these assets and then the next move a year later will be to buy the newspaper.

Even this probably won’t eventuate because Sky will almost certainly be taken over before shareholders get a chance to reap any of those rewards.

Sure, we have absolutely no reason to believe that any kind of deal is in the works. But if you don’t believe that a deal is imminent you are just an idiot quite frankly!

[mistaTea]

What the hell happened here!

MT no longer wanting dividends, now going on about some kind of deal.

Ogg happy to wait and see what happens, no longer thinking Comcast is the only option.

Just lol

Soooo….

My last message was me taking the p1ss out of the latest conspiracy theories…

[nztx]

Yes. We have absolutely cracked the case this time…


How would you & Ogg go on surfacing with the Lotto numbers for the coming month, seeing as you've got this one in the bag ? ;)

[Joh13]

It is unusual in that she's not actually a director.

No directors have made any trades.

She hasn't attended any of the board meetings.

She will likely be appointed in the next AGM though.

Weather she's just been put in charge of running the day to day business of Sky (as she was there as a replacement) and not involved in any cooperate deals etc.

When asked about the takeover deals she seems kinda delusional about it, like she had no idea what was going on.

But yeah, she is "senior management" and would obviously know what's going on to some degree.

Not sure if you understand that the BOD is suppose to look after shareholder interests and that management is looking after the company, so that would be a conflict of interest… show’s your surface level understanding of corporate finance.

[snigmac]

As a lawyer with only basic knowledge on corporate law, my understanding is that a CEO like Sophie can buy shares in a company(that they are the CEO of-and as long as all procedures are followed) if the information has been disclosed to the public (and more so if there is uncertainty in relation to the information e.g. a proposed takeover/merger which may or may not happen).

[snigmac]

I don't have time to read that, I charge like $200-500 a hour...

Also I my opinion (to the best of my belief) is correct.

[HCR20]

I don't have time to read that, I charge like $200-500 a hour...

Also I my opinion (to the best of my belief) is correct.

Do you mean 'best of my understanding'?

[krb]

Those NZOnAir Survey results for Sky were not good. although I doubt some of the surveys findings, as it did not seem to include SkySportNow at all in the streaming video results. Were the operators of the survey so clueless they did not realize it’s a separate product to skybox subscriptions?

12928

[krb]

Reading the comments about the OCA capital raise and the idle speculation they are doing it to buy the Sky campus. Even if that were true, the money OCA raised wouldn’t all be for purchase of the land, but also for the actual building costs which make up the bulk of the money needed to finish a new complex. I would still put the likely sale price below $50 million.