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mistaTea
05-09-2021, 09:28 AM
Reading the comments about the OCA capital raise and the idle speculation they are doing it to buy the Sky campus. Even if that were true, the money OCA raised wouldn’t all be for purchase of the land, but also for the actual building costs which make up the bulk of the money needed to finish a new complex. I would still put the likely sale price below $50 million.

Well, many if us have now had ample opportunity to make up numbers on this one!

Ranging from a paltry $30M to a whopping $100M.

Time will tell.

It is a large site with a lot of potential. But as the OCA shareholders have pointed out on their forum - the Blacks are a big issue for them. So probably no deal.

biker
05-09-2021, 09:42 AM
I don't have time to read that, I charge like $200-500 a hour...

Also I my opinion (to the best of my belief) is correct.

If you were charging me $500 an hour I would expect you to be a little more articulate

winner69
05-09-2021, 09:59 AM
Derek will know whats going on

Muse
05-09-2021, 10:44 AM
Hi Ogg. New to looking at Sky Network and doing some basic research.
Can you point me towards any publicly available information on the book and/or market value of the Mt Wellington properties being potentially divested? I looked at note 12 / page 64 of the annual report and the reported book value was ~13.5m. I am trying to reconcile that to the book value of 35-38 quoted in the Macquare report. I assume it would be a complete sale and not a leaseback (IE - no attendant incremental lease expenses) particularly if it was going to someone who would develop it

Thanks

Slim
05-09-2021, 11:41 AM
I tend to believe that if sky was judged the same as say a property stock, revaluation would be undertaken by a certified valuer frequently, dragging these levels up. After looking at commercial properties this year, the listed council valuations had little credibility compared to sales value. Closest I came on freely available info was big blocks in Avondale, be dividing the sales price by sqm I got a price of 65 to 68 mill, add in a premium for more central location would take us up to mid 80s.

I for one see Mount wellington as a prime candidate for redevelopment much like Glen Innes and see alot of potential for a retirement village.

winner69
05-09-2021, 01:35 PM
That poster Jamie on Sharsies is quite perceptive ...and maybe, just maybe, could be right

'Sky will die in the not too distant future' and then in another post 'dead cat bounces are temporary but mediocrity is permanent'

winner69
05-09-2021, 01:52 PM
People said Sky would die 10 years ago but here we are.

What's dead for sure is growth in A2's Infant formula.

The take away quote from the Sharesis thread is:

"All investment is about the price you pay"

Shame Ben Graham and other old time gurus aren't alive today - they would have loved to post their wisdom on Sharesies

Slim
05-09-2021, 01:56 PM
Jamie is a client of mine, his favorite quote is about the cat bouncing on sky threads, on multiple occasions

Small world

We shall see who's right.

winner69
05-09-2021, 02:22 PM
Jamie is a client of mine, his favorite quote is about the cat bouncing on sky threads, on multiple occasions

Small world

We shall see who's right.

The overall quality of posts on that Sharesie thread is very high - if baseline for quality is this thread

Baa_Baa
05-09-2021, 02:42 PM
The Friday chart candle looks ominous, like a 'shooting star' potentially setting up for a 'blow off top'. That scenario would wipe out all the gains as quickly as they were made. To avoid a selling spree, will require further large buyer volume, which seems less likely than profit-taking, having put on 38% increase in SP since the low of the Results day only 8 trading days ago.

GLTH

winner69
05-09-2021, 03:01 PM
The Friday chart candle looks ominous, like a 'shooting star' potentially setting up for a 'blow off top'. That scenario would wipe out all the gains as quickly as they were made. To avoid a selling spree, will require further large buyer volume, which seems less likely than profit-taking, having put on 38% increase in SP since the low of the Results day only 8 trading days ago.

GLTH

Thanks for this baabaa

Even the text book seems to describe whats happened last few days - The rally into the blow-off could be based on news, or speculation of good news, growth, or higher prices in the future.



Seems next week might be a bit painful

Quantitative Easing
05-09-2021, 03:28 PM
Thanks for this baabaa

Even the text book seems to describe whats happened last few days - The rally into the blow-off could be based on news, or speculation of good news, growth, or higher prices in the future.



Seems next week might be a bit painful

No doubt there will be some pullbacks but look at the NZME rally from middle of last year. Up 444% from a bottom in April 2020. Sky is not too dissimilar to NZME.

Almost-confused
05-09-2021, 09:24 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/widespread-internet-outages-across-nz/YG7ADTQEZWLGDTTBZ4EEFZ633I/?utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=nzh_fb&utm_source=Facebook#Echobox=1630633747

Vocus hit by a cyber attack. That must've taken Sky fibre down with it... But surely that's also got to drop the takeover price 😂

JohnnyTheHorse
05-09-2021, 09:42 PM
Sky has entered a long term bull cycle with the confirmation of a monthly uptrend and break of monthly 12ema. This has taken the best part of 12 months to develop, so in my opinion now is not a time to even be thinking of selling. The successful method for profiting from bull markets is buying dips (higher lows).

In the shorter term (daily timeframe) we will inevitably pullback at some point. Can't predict when this will happen, however it will be marked by the price dropping below the previous days low. At this point we would just be looking for a daily higher low (ideally on decreasing volume and around the daily 12ema), followed by continuation of the daily uptrend. Wasn't anywhere enough volume to suggest a blowoff top on Friday.

One key characteristic of this rally is institutional crossings at higher and higher prices. It is big money, not retail, that is pushing the price. This gives additional confidence that daily consolidation will be for buying.

Joshuatree
05-09-2021, 10:37 PM
Hindsight, but thanks for the summary so far

winner69
06-09-2021, 12:27 AM
Jamie is a client of mine, his favorite quote is about the cat bouncing on sky threads, on multiple occasions

Small world

We shall see who's right.

Jamie a client of yours eh Slim. ….. jamie must be one smart guy then

clown
06-09-2021, 07:23 AM
I subscribed to sky sport over the weekend to watch the Rugby Championship. I think it's awesome. Not sure how long I'll keep it though, but then again, I said the same thig about NEON and I still have it, way better content than netflix and the new HBO stuff is awesome too. Love the fact that new movies can be rented as well, makes a difference when you can't go to the cinema.


What a weekend.

All Blacks, Warriors, tennis US open, golf.

Lockdown watching new HBO content on Neon.

Yeah "Sky is dead bro", just lol.

Ogg's 4 step to share trading success:

1) Sell property to OCA
2) Buy Orcon from Vocus
3) Sell it all to Comcast
4) Profit

winner69
06-09-2021, 07:39 AM
We need to get that Joshua guy who does stock analysis videos to do one on Sky

Lurking here Joshua

Vitamin_A
06-09-2021, 07:51 AM
Ok, share price prediction for close this Friday?

Joshuatree
06-09-2021, 08:53 AM
2 hairs past a freckle I reckon.

snigmac
06-09-2021, 09:00 AM
Friday close of between 21c-25c.

Akane
06-09-2021, 09:20 AM
Jamie, the classic "muh netflix, muh plex, muh VPN" kinda guy.

For the tech savvy, his solutions might work. For the 99.9% of the population tho.... "I ain't got no time for that".
For a measly sum of a nice lunch, you can do without all the headache of signing up to multiple different services, nagging your tech savvy friends/relatives on how to setup and operate, poking around with all the menus and jumping hurdles.....

But hey, "Look ma, look no hands, I just spent 3 days on setting this up, pay for VPN service and use 3 different systems just so I can give SKT the middle finger woohoo I managed to save $3.45! SkY iS dEd!"

:rolleyes:

Quantitative Easing
06-09-2021, 10:27 AM
30-40cents on back of no news is conceivable. That is where the share price was at start of 2020 before Covid hit. You could say Sky looks in a better shape today (with no debt) than it did at start of 2020. Well at least it looks no worse than it did at start of 2020...

Joshuatree
06-09-2021, 10:37 AM
The Sky is the limit ;)

Almost-confused
06-09-2021, 11:05 AM
We're already up 10% today, it's easy with these bigger pip sizes. Reckon we might see a speeding ticket today??

JW Invests
06-09-2021, 11:11 AM
We need to get that Joshua guy who does stock analysis videos to do one on Sky

Lurking here Joshua

Funnily enough thought of doing a SKT video early this year. Valuation came around 24cents. Unfortunately I didn't stick with my model and sold my small parcel at a loss due to consolidating the portfolio into high conviction stocks.

krb
06-09-2021, 11:16 AM
30-40cents on back of no news is conceivable. That is where the share price was at start of 2020 before Covid hit. You could say Sky looks in a better shape today (with no debt) than it did at start of 2020. Well at least it looks no worse than it did at start of 2020...

are you forgetting about the significant change in shares issued since then?

At the start of 2020 there were 435 million shares on issue.

Today there are 1.747 billion shares on issue.

At a share price of 30-40 cents, the company market capitalization would be valued 4x higher today than at the equivalent share price back at the start of 2020 - would essentially be the equivalent of $1.20-$1.60 share price pre-share dilution.

Popeye
06-09-2021, 11:43 AM
Jamie, the classic "muh netflix, muh plex, muh VPN" kinda guy.

For the tech savvy, his solutions might work. For the 99.9% of the population tho.... "I ain't got no time for that".
For a measly sum of a nice lunch, you can do without all the headache of signing up to multiple different services, nagging your tech savvy friends/relatives on how to setup and operate, poking around with all the menus and jumping hurdles.....

But hey, "Look ma, look no hands, I just spent 3 days on setting this up, pay for VPN service and use 3 different systems just so I can give SKT the middle finger woohoo I managed to save $3.45! SkY iS dEd!"

:rolleyes:

Good point. The same as the 90% who just want a car that starts, gets them to their destination, is affordable, and as a bonus extra does not contaminate the environment. Most of us just dont care if our car can be updated remotely!

Sky seems to have suffered from an extended period of negative sentiment. Many on this thread have skillfully outlined the upside case based on fundamentals over the last 18 month in particular. But even they seemed to become gradually less certain of themselves over time. At least until the last few days.

The opposite phenomenon might be Air NZ, where nothing seems to dent the share price to the continued amazement of most watchers. I remember thinking early last year that if it fell to 30 cents it might attract some bets. It never even got close!

So what is the lesson? Perhaps the truism about the market being a popularity contest in the short-term and a weighing machine in the long-term. And that "short-term" can easily extend years. It must have been agony for the daily posters on this thread. Easy to tell yourself you are making a solid long-term bet that might not play out for years, not so easy to chuck it into the bottom drawer while waiting for (anti)gravity to take effect...

Quantitative Easing
06-09-2021, 11:56 AM
are you forgetting about the significant change in shares issued since then?

At the start of 2020 there were 435 million shares on issue.

Today there are 1.747 billion shares on issue.

At a share price of 30-40 cents, the company market capitalization would be valued 4x higher today than at the equivalent share price back at the start of 2020 - would essentially be the equivalent of $1.20-$1.60 share price pre-share dilution.


It was valued at 30-40 cents at the start of 2020 corrected for the share dilution. The actual shares were trading around $1.20 at the time.

thebusinessman
06-09-2021, 12:12 PM
Funnily enough thought of doing a SKT video early this year. Valuation came around 24cents. Unfortunately I didn't stick with my model and sold my small parcel at a loss due to consolidating the portfolio into high conviction stocks.

Ha, your Interactive Brokers video came up in my recommended list the other day. Fellas, we've a celebrity in our midst!

Chinesekiwi
06-09-2021, 12:20 PM
Just search up Joshua Wang.

airedale
06-09-2021, 02:04 PM
What's your youtube channel?


Such rare and refreshing honesty, a professional financial adviser who admits to a lapse of judgement. Well done Joshua Wang.

Quantitative Easing
06-09-2021, 02:05 PM
Good videos Joshua Wang.

jimdog31
06-09-2021, 03:44 PM
Definitely not the sell off some were expecting

JW Invests
06-09-2021, 04:04 PM
Have subbed.

Do a Sky video!

Thanks Ogg, I'd need to bring you on the channel as an expert on this stock!

JW Invests
06-09-2021, 04:12 PM
Such rare and refreshing honesty, a professional financial adviser who admits to a lapse of judgement. Well done Joshua Wang.


Good videos Joshua Wang.

I'm not professional financial adviser and I make plenty of mistakes so don't take anything as recommendation!

Thanks for the feedback everyone!

Akane
06-09-2021, 04:46 PM
The volume has died down quite a bit today in comparison to last week.

Whales done accumulating? How could that possibly be?

Dlownz
06-09-2021, 04:57 PM
The volume has died down quite a bit today in comparison to last week.

Whales done accumulating? How could that possibly be?
I actually thought today would be quite and tomorrow would be busy. Still a bit of volume though. Price is holding so maybe everyone was just seeing if they could get a bargain still

RTM
06-09-2021, 05:05 PM
The volume has died down quite a bit today in comparison to last week.

Whales done accumulating? How could that possibly be?

Long weekend in USA might quieten things down a bot.

waikare
06-09-2021, 06:50 PM
Question: What do SKT regard a holding of a :Non-Marketable Parcel of shares, currently I hold just 8792, in a couple week it will be 879...

mistaTea
06-09-2021, 07:33 PM
https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/media/nzx-skt/sky-network-television-shares#valuation

These guys use very conservative FCF assumptions for Sky when doing their DCF analysis...and even then they think 'Fair Value' is 29c/share.

Chinesekiwi
06-09-2021, 10:26 PM
Thanks Ogg, I'd need to bring you on the channel as an expert on this stock!


And he can share his passion for a Mr Cage :t_up:

mistaTea
07-09-2021, 09:27 AM
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519212/nzx-50-makes-seven-day-gain-run.html



Potential upside looks quite interesting, he says.

In 5 years time Sky would generate half it's market cap so there would be a decent buffer from any major downside risk of losing terminal value. They still would have the properties, branding, customers, and media infrastructure that a company like Comcast or Discovery could use. Even Disney made a play for Sky UK less than 5 years ago.

Would this guy question the "terminal value" of Comcast 5 years from now?

No one is saying Sky is a worth billions or is a heavyweight but you need to put this into perspective. Worrying about the terminal value 5 years can just as easily be flipped to say; what can Sky do in the next 5 years that would make a company like Comcast, Discovery, or Disney want to pay 5 times more for.

When Sky hits 1 billion market cap maybe you would start to think about terminal value.

While the 'experts' grapple with their Terminal Value calculation, Osmium are happy to continue to build a large stake in an undervalued business.

Trying to be precisely right on a business valuation is nuts - you just need to be able to ballpark it (i.e. calculate a reasonable range of what the business is most likely worth).

And $375M is still well short of the ballpark for what Sky, on the balance of probabilities, is likely worth to the long term business owner.

Sky TV will have over $100M cash in the bank once the property sells. So you have an EV of somewhere between $250M-$275M.

The business will still produce FCF of at least $20M next year (the low point as Sky pay higher content costs before being able to realise the full benefit of further OPEX reductions). And the FCF is expected to grow significantly from then.

For a business that is likely to produce FCF of $40M+ from FY24 and beyond...would you pay $275M? Hell yes you would. You would pay $500M for a business like that.

The only way you can figure that Sky won't be able to continue generating those kinds of earnings is if you still believe that all of their key content partners are going to abandon them within the next five years.

This is not likely (for a range of reasons) and I think the HBO deal was critical for Sky to prove it to the market. Many, many pundits have been predicting a launch of HBO Max in NZ...not based on any economic reality of how many subs Warner could actually expect to generate given kiwis already have NETFLIX, NEON, Disney+, AppleTV+, Amazon Prime etc...but more out of wishful thinking since HBO have a nice app and cool content.

If Warner could earn more money than they get from Sky TV then they would have launched. But there are only so many subs a customer will keep year in and year out, and hence the bundle lives on.

The Bundle becomes more of an advantage to Sky TV as content providers continue to fragment. And the new STB will bring it all together in one place.

LaserEyeKiwi
07-09-2021, 11:15 AM
https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519212/nzx-50-makes-seven-day-gain-run.html



Potential upside looks quite interesting, he says.

In 5 years time Sky would generate half it's market cap so there would be a decent buffer from any major downside risk of losing terminal value. They still would have the properties, branding, customers, and media infrastructure that a company like Comcast or Discovery could use. Even Disney made a play for Sky UK less than 5 years ago.

Would this guy question the "terminal value" of Comcast 5 years from now?

No one is saying Sky is a worth billions or is a heavyweight but you need to put this into perspective. Worrying about the terminal value 5 years can just as easily be flipped to say; what can Sky do in the next 5 years that would make a company like Comcast, Discovery, or Disney want to pay 5 times more for.

When Sky hits 1 billion market cap maybe you would start to think about terminal value.

Can’t really compare Sky to Comcast.

Comcast’s main profit engines are assets that Sky NZ does not have.

The biggest source of comcast profits come from its cable infrastructure which provides broadband services to an ever growing amount of American households. That part of its business is basically a vertically integrated unregulated version of Chorus & Spark if they were still combined. Comcast is America’s largest broadband company, serving 34 million customers and growing. (1st 6 months of 2021 EBITDA: $14 Billion)

The next biggest part of Comcast’s business is NBCUniversal, which generates its returns from its own intellectual property, which it monetizes through its film studios, media networks and theme parks and resorts. (Even though heavily impacted by covid closures of cinemas and theme parks, 1st 6 months of 2021 EBITDA: $3 Billion)

the least profitable part of Comcast’s business is “Sky” - which is the part that most resembles SKY NZ - which is the European pay tv operator, which has a declining subscriber base and is decreasing in profitability as it sheds customers (1st 6 months of 2021 EBITDA: $0.9 Billion)

I think most shareholders consider Comcast’s $39 Billion takeover of Sky as a gigantic waste of money, and I don’t see them doing any deals like that ever again.

LaserEyeKiwi
07-09-2021, 11:25 AM
Well it’s been a great week for SKT. I am a little surprised we haven’t seen any more substantial holder notices yet.

mikelee
07-09-2021, 11:46 AM
https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

good read Ogg...i see Chris is not a fan of share buy back then

Joshuatree
07-09-2021, 11:49 AM
More tree shaking going on shaking out weak hands? Retail holders are the ones that get manipulated, shafted ,psyched out by the instos with their stacked decks, trading techniques, bots, stackers, blocks etc. I am holding for bigger rewards hopefully. Have been selling down our estate though, in 20% increments as its due to be wound up and lower risk required.

LaserEyeKiwi
07-09-2021, 11:52 AM
Interesting read:

https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

Orcon and Two degrees IPO mentioned at the bottom.

Two degrees & Vocus merging seems like an obvious opportunity, especially as both are looking to change their ownership structure with an IPO anyway. I think the faster that Sky can get its new box out and migrate its skybox customer base off of satellite to IP, then the more attractive it will become to companies like 2 degrees or Vocus.

Balance
07-09-2021, 12:37 PM
More tree shaking going on shaking out weak hands? Retail holders are the ones that get manipulated, shafted ,psyched out by the instos with their stacked decks, trading techniques, bots, stackers, blocks etc. I am holding for bigger rewards hopefully. Have been selling down our estate though, in 20% increments as its due to be wound up and lower risk required.

Heard the same garbage in ATM - tree shaking blah blah blah.

Stock has had a great run and simply needs to do some work around current levels.

Akane
07-09-2021, 12:46 PM
More tree shaking going on shaking out weak hands? Retail holders are the ones that get manipulated, shafted ,psyched out by the instos with their stacked decks, trading techniques, bots, stackers, blocks etc. I am holding for bigger rewards hopefully. Have been selling down our estate though, in 20% increments as its due to be wound up and lower risk required.

Nobody ever gone broke cashing out profits tho.

Akane
07-09-2021, 12:47 PM
Heard the same garbage in ATM - tree shaking blah blah blah.

Stock has had a great run and simply needs to do some work around current levels.

Yeah except ATM is a dog... I'm -69.3% on that turd.........
Meanwhile I'm only -42.8% on SKT :rofl:

Balance
07-09-2021, 12:49 PM
You sold your sky shares to early bro. What you buy in at again, 14c?

I still have some of my SKT shares and very happy watching the action unfold.

Great to see some decent upward momentum.

jimdog31
07-09-2021, 03:19 PM
Chair buying. 200k at 19.3c

OK, unlikely any secret takeover happening soon.

But still, it's not like he's selling!'

Management sells for a multitude of reasons, but buys only for one reason!

Baa_Baa
07-09-2021, 03:31 PM
'

Management sells for a multitude of reasons, but buys only for one reason!

Couldn't hope for a better situation after the Report etc, CEO buys, then Chair buys on market 250,000

Brilliant, strong show of confidence, follow the money!

winner69
07-09-2021, 03:43 PM
Couldn't hope for a better situation after the Report etc, CEO buys, then Chair buys on market 250,000

Brilliant, strong show of confidence, follow the money!

Suppose it doesn’t mean much me buying more than the Chair recently ….but a notional sign of confidence from the Chair

Like me his average cost going up.

curious zebra
07-09-2021, 03:43 PM
Couldn't hope for a better situation after the Report etc, CEO buys, then Chair buys on market 250,000

Brilliant, strong show of confidence, follow the money!

Absolutely agree, a definite vote of confidence! I just wish the holders of those 8 million shares on the sell side weren't so keen to sell their shares soooo cheaply!

jimdog31
07-09-2021, 04:02 PM
Absolutely agree, a definite vote of confidence! I just wish the holders of those 8 million shares on the sell side weren't so keen to sell their shares soooo cheaply!

All its going to take is Osmium, ACC, FMR or black crane to decide to buy 1 day and that 8,000,000 will disappear quicksmart. its only $1.6m. CHump change for these guys

Joshuatree
07-09-2021, 04:12 PM
I still have some of my SKT shares and very happy watching the action unfold.

Great to see some decent upward momentum.


Easily shaken.

Quantitative Easing
07-09-2021, 04:40 PM
dont forget 6th of september was a public holiday in America. Hopefully osmium and other insto will be in action tomorrow.

airedale
07-09-2021, 04:50 PM
Well no, I was hoping that the board would step up to the plate and show some confidence.


And so it came to pass.

Joshuatree
07-09-2021, 05:08 PM
Touche Airedale,do it again:)

snigmac
07-09-2021, 10:21 PM
I still think that without further positive news, sky should hit 24/25c soon (sometime this month -before consolidation). I'm happy to hold and then make a further decision then.

Balance
08-09-2021, 08:15 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126304268/sharemarket-edges-up-in-quiet-trading-as-big-stocks-flatline

“It’s a pretty darn quiet day,” said Hamilton Hindin Greene investment adviser Grant Davies. “Most of the larger companies on the market haven’t really moved too much and that has anchored the market to a fairly flat position which is not surprising because not much has happened today in terms of news.”

Not a lot happening on Sky either today. Looked like mostly retail trading. Bit of a pause. Could almost just write this day off.

Another market perspective for Sky only watchers (SKT).

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article/976519222/nz-shares-rise-as-nationwide-lockdown-ends.html

Plenty of share price movements - just not SKT.

Balance
08-09-2021, 08:46 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378740

10% stake as a first step?

Looks like 20c floor is well & truly established for SKT shares.

sb9
08-09-2021, 08:48 AM
Osmium still at them, keep scooping more shares and now upto 6.93% up from 5.70% from their last disclosure.

jimdog31
08-09-2021, 08:49 AM
my theory holds! keep on buying, these guys arent going to let the price drop.

winner69
08-09-2021, 08:53 AM
Osmium still at them, keep scooping more shares and now upto 6.93% up from 5.70% from their last disclosure.

Ony 13% to go …that's quite a few more shares to buy

LaserEyeKiwi
08-09-2021, 08:56 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/378740

10% stake as a first step?

Looks like 20c floor is well & truly established for SKT shares.

Excellent.

mikelee
08-09-2021, 09:07 AM
By the time Osmium hits its target we could have several newly minted millionaires on this forum. Great for the NZ economy I reckon :t_up:

ados_nz
08-09-2021, 09:20 AM
By the time Osmium hits its target we could have several newly minted millionaires on this forum. Great for the NZ economy I reckon :t_up:

Hopefully by that stage we will be allowed to post GIFs without being put in the naughty corner!

Really positive to see Osmium is still accumulating and I think the NZME action is a pretty good indicator of a trajectory from here.

JohnnyTheHorse
08-09-2021, 09:25 AM
Zero red flags on the technicals.

We are yet to consolidate on the daily timeframe (breaking 20.5c). Sideways action for a few more days would be healthy consolidation, ideally with us touching 20c. Volume trends currently indicate no significant institutional selling or buying, rather we are just having a breather. This supports a higher probability case for the formation of a daily bull flag and resumption of the uptrend.

As Balance mentioned, it is likely we have a ~20c floor given Osmium's accumulation.

Quantitative Easing
08-09-2021, 10:11 AM
Is Osmium partners the greatest hedge fund in America or what? These guys might be the next Soros and Druckenmillers...

sb9
08-09-2021, 10:51 AM
Looks like big battle lines are drawn going current trading depth..

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 10:52 AM
Clearly Osmium want to lock in a lot more shares around the 20c mark. Smart to slow down the buying to keep the price cheap as they continue to build patiently.

And they have time, Sky isn't going anywhere and the SP won't escalate significantly unless they ramp up their buying (or someone else following them decides to jump on the bandwagon).

I also don't want the price to go too high right now as it would jeapordise buybacks.

If it goes higher than $2.50/share post consolidation then doing a buyback starts to be questionable. Certainly at $3/share.

Which means they then have to look at an alternative way to return the capital...

If they can do a meaningful buyback and then reinstate a good dividend policy in Feb, I can see the price going north of $3.50/Share. Even $4 maybe.

Balance
08-09-2021, 11:03 AM
Yup - suspect Osmium will back off now and let the traders psyche each other out.

When they get tired of directionless trading and start bailing out is when Osmium will make its move and buy a few more.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 11:05 AM
Buy backs are off bro:

I would contrast this strategy to stock buybacks, where a cash-rich company simply uses its money to buy back its own shares, inflating the share price, a tactic often employed by the finance sector to manage capital it considers ''excess''. As we have seen repeatedly over the past two decades, this is almost always reversed by capital raisings, at much lower prices, during the inevitable economic slowdowns. https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock

It's better to take that $200m and buy Orcon.

If Sky can get to $3 maybe they will take some script.

Sky needs to return to growth and then pay a small dividnend. This will attract the bigger investment/kiwi saver funds who will return and start buying the stock at higher and higher prices to chase yield.

I don't disagree with you - as I have said for months now, my strong preference is for them to use the cash to make some kind of acquisition...

However they have given no indication that they are able to pull any favourable M&A deals together.

Maybe they will pleasantly surprise us!

But if they can't do a deal, then buybacks.

LaserEyeKiwi
08-09-2021, 11:20 AM
Yup - suspect Osmium will back off now and let the traders psyche each other out.

When they get tired of directionless trading and start bailing out is when Osmium will make its move and buy a few more.

the disclosure this morning was for shares purchased between 1st-3rd, so they conceivably haven’t been buying this week at all.

Balance
08-09-2021, 11:23 AM
the disclosure this morning was for shares purchased between 1st-3rd, so they conceivably haven’t been buying this week at all.

Yup … hence my comment that support level is at 20c which is where they stopped buying last.

Could be a little while before we see them come back and buy more?

Vitamin_A
08-09-2021, 01:07 PM
I don't think SKT will buy Orcon. It does not fit with their infrastructure-lite model they have been pushing. I'm hoping for a return of capital in some way, shape or form to shareholders.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 01:20 PM
I don't think SKT will buy Orcon. It does not fit with their infrastructure-lite model they have been pushing. I'm hoping for a return of capital in some way, shape or form to shareholders.

As much as I like the idea of Sky jumping feet first into telco with some kind of a deal with Vocus and/or 2D...I don't think it will happen either.

There has been no indication that Sky have any appetite to get into telco beyond their current wholesale deal.

The only commentary we have had from Philip Bowman has been to do with capital return options and dividend resumption.

Which is fine, because these moves should easily push the SP above $3/share. Depending on what kind of dividend they reinstate, $4/share is not too crazy to imagine either.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 01:38 PM
It's the exact opposite.

Bowman has said nothing about buy backs or dividends.

The investor presentation, slide 81, talks about partnership deals. I.e. Orcon partnering or merging with Sky to create value.

The Vocus NZ IPO is supposed to happen by year ends. Time is ticking here. What's going on? Where's the update? Or is it just delayed because of Covid but they should all be working from home doing this?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/377870/353010.pdf

Slide 29

"The Board continues to consider capital management options, including potential for dividends, in the context of the strong balance sheet, options for proceeds from the potential sale of property, and the need to reinvest operating free cash flow in FY22 into growth initiatives"

If you start with a definitive end point and then just spend all day hunting for 'facts' that prove your latest theory you will continue to end up with Egg on your face.

This is the problem you had with the five or six different takeover theories you had over the last 18 months or so.

Now that takeovers are clearly not on the agenda, you are somehow going full throttle on the telco angle (whereas before when I used to bring up the merits of Sky doing a deal with Vocus you poo-pooed it, told me what a sh1tty use of money it would be because Vocus sucks a$$ etc etc. Telco sucks bro, we should just take 19c/share from Comcast. lol.

All that kind of weird sh1t.

And now, low and behold! Sky telco fits your 'latest theory' - and you are trying to position it as though you "thunk it up all yourself".

Bad news mate, the chances of any kind of M&A deal happening any time soon are slim. I would love to be wrong on this, but the most realistic option is buybacks and dividends.

Vocus and 2D have been working on their IPO options for months now. If a tie up with Sky was the way forward, Sophie and Philip would not be able to buy shares...a deal would be at advanced stages and imminent.

No doubt the three companies have talked to each other at various points, but nothing has come of it (clearly).

Given Osmium's (growing) investment in Sky, we are probably more likely to merge with the newspaper than anyone else at some point. Not making a prediction here, just stating that it is probably more likely given Osmium own one fifth of NZME and will probably own one tenth of Sky before long.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 01:55 PM
Osmium have been reading my posts and decided to buy!



HAHAHAAHAHA!




It's not your time to be in the green but your time will come.

Yes, very soon. Only down about 20% right now! When you consider that during the first lockdown (before the capital raise) I was down 90% this is quite an achievement!

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 02:05 PM
maybe she wants some Egg for breakfast.

You don't strike me as someone who has ever known the warmth of a woman.

jimdog31
08-09-2021, 02:12 PM
When you're making this much money son, it's hard to stay tied down.

How i wish gifs were still allowed. You guys are like Ross and Rachel. Whose who??

jimdog31
08-09-2021, 02:36 PM
I'm sure we'll be friends again with the stock gets back to 26c

Dont get me wrong Im glad you dont agree on much. It makes for some awesome debates. with your arguments combined we are still no closer to the truth!

mikelee
08-09-2021, 02:40 PM
I pray that neither of them gets taken offline again. :)

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 02:49 PM
I think by the ASM, everything will be out on the table.

I'll give you A to M in a minute...

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 03:03 PM
The truth is, neither Ogg nor I have actually made (or lost) anything on Sky.

Pretty sure Ogg made about 5 grand last time he went off the deep end and sold out. If he is honest and includes that in his tax return he will pay some tax on 'dem gainz'. No doubt he will refute this and try to say he made 30 grand or something, but I remember at the time it was a paltry sum (which was why he was so cross).

Right now, he is sitting on a paper gain that hovers between about $50K-$60K. But it is meaningless right now as it is a paper gain (and can just as quickly be taken away if the market decides it doesn't like a new Spark Sport news article).

So all this hype from Egg about 'making all this money' is hilarious. In two years he has made four thousand dollars after tax. And I have made zero dollars.

We both haven't lost any money though!

I am glad that he is still holding though.

It is as the great Charlier Munger says ' "You don't make money when you buy. You don't make money when you sell. You make money when you wait".

And we are both waiting (one more patiently than the other) as we know that, on the balance of probabilities, good things are coming for Sky (and the market is starting to wake up to how undervalued this business is). That we agree on!

RGR367
08-09-2021, 03:19 PM
The truth is, neither Ogg nor I have actually made (or lost) anything on Sky.

Right now, he is sitting on a paper gain that hovers between about $50K-$60K.

That we agree on!

Only that little? Lol. You guys talk on analysis/paralysis as if you're both bordering on a high 6 digit paper gain already :cool: Anyway, continue as you're both entertaining the masses.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 03:26 PM
That's right bro, keep saying it to yourself, Ogg has made very little.

Lol, it is true though.



For the record, my intention at the time of purchase is to keep the shares.

I'm 100% committed to this stock long term! But if someone comes along and forces a takeover then I have no choice but to sell to them.

If there was ever a 'Cage worthy' moment in the annals of SNT lore this has got to be it!

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 03:57 PM
Only that little? Lol. You guys talk on analysis/paralysis as if you're both bordering on a high 6 digit paper gain already :cool: Anyway, continue as you're both entertaining the masses.


Come on! Actually making money on stocks is for chumps!

I never got past Warren's first two rules of investing to guarantee that you get filthy rich:



Don't lose money
Don't forget Rule #1


Now you are trying to tell me that beyond those two very sensible and practical rules...I am actually supposed to make a profit?!

That's it! I'm out.

mistaTea
08-09-2021, 05:20 PM
Just having a glance at Osmium partners NZME disclosures...

From the time they went north of 8% ownership, it took them about a year to build up to their ~19% stake.

Slowly, slowly catches the monkey.

I wouldn't expect disclosures from them every week or anything like that.

They will be super careful not to push the SP too high.

They seem to be knowledgable about the media industry - and I don't think they are buying into Sky at these prices unless they think it is at least a two or three bagger.

LaserEyeKiwi
08-09-2021, 07:00 PM
Ok so is this new IPL-style World rugby 12s professional tournament coming next year something Sky needs to be worried about?

it’s being run by a new private entity, so I don’t see any guarantees that this would be covered by the existing Sky/NZR contract.

it’s the type of competition Spark would give their left nut to get the rights to.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-qa-document-explaining-what-the-new-world-12s-is-all-about (https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-qa-document-explaining-what-the-new-world-12s-is-all-about/)

snigmac
08-09-2021, 08:33 PM
Ok so is this new IPL-style World rugby 12s professional tournament coming next year something Sky needs to be worried about?

it’s being run by a new private entity, so I don’t see any guarantees that this would be covered by the existing Sky/NZR contract.

it’s the type of competition Spark would give their left nut to get the rights to.

https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-qa-document-explaining-what-the-new-world-12s-is-all-about (https://www.rugbypass.com/news/the-qa-document-explaining-what-the-new-world-12s-is-all-about/)

Given the already existing relationship between RugbyPass and Sky (and my understanding that Sky owns the cash generating part of RugbyPass), it is possible that this is the growth with RugbyPass that Sky eluded to in their recent FY. Maybe more good news to follow?

Dlownz
08-09-2021, 08:43 PM
Given the already existing relationship between RugbyPass and Sky (and my understanding that Sky owns the cash generating part of RugbyPass), it is possible that this is the growth with RugbyPass that Sky eluded to in their recent FY. Maybe more good news to follow?
I think sky sold rugby pass or basically just gave it away

snigmac
08-09-2021, 09:01 PM
I think sky sold rugby pass or basically just gave it away

It does look like the streaming component of RugbyPass was sold and as value could not be extracted from certain parts of Rugby Pass due issues with synergy, a large portion of the value of Rugby Pass was written off...Other parts of RugbyPass were kept and Sky was eluding to growing these parts in the recent FY, which is confusing..

It does look like this World 12 may be a new thing and Sky will need to contend for rights.

clown
09-09-2021, 09:14 AM
More coverage on Sky

"Lewis said potential dividends were not an immediate hook. When a company was trading at a low multiple to ebitda, Osmium preferred free cash to be used for a share buy-back."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-investor-continues-to-build-stake-in-sky-tv-more-insider-buying/2DINH2SB7JQCYUPTHAAK4LPRU4/

Joshuatree
09-09-2021, 09:18 AM
Thanks,can't access but like the way that Osmium is talking about "our" company.

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 09:26 AM
More coverage on Sky

"Lewis said potential dividends were not an immediate hook. When a company was trading at a low multiple to ebitda, Osmium preferred free cash to be used for a share buy-back."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/us-investor-continues-to-build-stake-in-sky-tv-more-insider-buying/2DINH2SB7JQCYUPTHAAK4LPRU4/

Jarden and Forshyth on the ball too with their crack hot analysis of Sky.

"The result saw wealth manager Jarden on August 26 upgrade its rating from underweight to neutral, but trimmed its 12-month target price from 19c to 18c. Analysts Arie Dekker and Luan Nguyen saw reasons for cautious optimism with programming rights costs peaking in the current year and streaming revenue on the increase. However, they said it was "still too early to call inflection point".Forsyth Barr retained its neutral rating post-earnings, with a 12-month target of 18c. Although Sky box customer losses were now stabilising and streaming subscriptions growing strongly, analysts Aaron Ibbotson and Matt Montgomerie were guarded in their comments. "Sky described this as being an inflection point but we believe the jury is still out," the pair told clients."

"The stock closed yesterday at 20.5c."

Joshuatree
09-09-2021, 09:33 AM
I'm glad your self esteem is in a happy place Ogg ,we all benefit:) and I think Forsyth B maybe short two analysts soon,boy how to antispin your own company:confused:

clown
09-09-2021, 09:42 AM
Yeah, kind of questions their analysis skills...


Jarden and Forshyth on the ball too with their crack hot analysis of Sky.

"The result saw wealth manager Jarden on August 26 upgrade its rating from underweight to neutral, but trimmed its 12-month target price from 19c to 18c. Analysts Arie Dekker and Luan Nguyen saw reasons for cautious optimism with programming rights costs peaking in the current year and streaming revenue on the increase. However, they said it was "still too early to call inflection point".Forsyth Barr retained its neutral rating post-earnings, with a 12-month target of 18c. Although Sky box customer losses were now stabilising and streaming subscriptions growing strongly, analysts Aaron Ibbotson and Matt Montgomerie were guarded in their comments. "Sky described this as being an inflection point but we believe the jury is still out," the pair told clients."

"The stock closed yesterday at 20.5c."

clown
09-09-2021, 09:43 AM
Me too :)

Not sure if I'm allowed to post paywalled articles here...


Thanks,can't access but like the way that Osmium is talking about "our" company.

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 09:47 AM
Yeah, kind of questions their analysis skills...

You can tell the way Arie fumbles at his questions ("Duh, duh duhh duhhh...ARPU...duhh duhh...content costs...duh duhhh...) that he really doesn't actually understand Sky TV and the media business very well.

Yet, despite having no real idea of what he is talking about, he is somehow still able to value the business.

Amazing.

Same goes for that Brian Han from Morningstar. Just because the 30c valuation looks tastier to me than Arie's 18c doesn't mean I like how he got there!

None of these guys have a clue, and that hasn't helped Sky's SP at all given these are the 'valuations' and 'advice' that is put out to the Market.

Not blaming Sky's low SP all on these guys, but just pointing out that is certainly doesn't help when the Business Analysis is done by people who are out of their depth.

Slim
09-09-2021, 09:48 AM
An update on the property would be great, especially detailing how they have achieved a massive sell price.

clown
09-09-2021, 09:57 AM
I think they said an update will be given at the ASM.


An update on the property would be great, especially detailing how they have achieved a massive sell price.

clown
09-09-2021, 09:58 AM
Wow Ogg no gifs for days now.. You've turned a corner, just like the SP ;)


Yeah, it was also nice of him to mention this forum and in particular thank me for his gains. What a great guy.

Joshuatree
09-09-2021, 10:53 AM
You can tell the way Arie fumbles at his questions ("Duh, duh duhh duhhh...ARPU...duhh duhh...content costs...duh duhhh...) that he really doesn't actually understand Sky TV and the media business very well.

Yet, despite having no real idea of what he is talking about, he is somehow still able to value the business.

Amazing.

Same goes for that Brian Han from Morningstar. Just because the 30c valuation looks tastier to me than Arie's 18c doesn't mean I like how he got there!

None of these guys have a clue, and that hasn't helped Sky's SP at all given these are the 'valuations' and 'advice' that is put out to the Market.

Not blaming Sky's low SP all on these guys, but just pointing out that is certainly doesn't help when the Business Analysis is done by people who are out of their depth.


I had a lightbulb moment some years ago mainly with small cap stocks ,that Sheesh I know alot more then these shares then advisors do,they just spin and pretend they are all knowing because commission one way or the other is all its about for them.

LaserEyeKiwi
09-09-2021, 02:49 PM
Interim CFO gets into the mix with a small purchase

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378878/354390.pdf

$25k worth

Alpha
09-09-2021, 02:51 PM
Small amount but even further support to add

jimdog31
09-09-2021, 03:01 PM
Interim CFO gets into the mix with a small purchase

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378878/354390.pdf

$25k worth

The key here is "interim". Why interim? They've outlined a few years worth of strategy and yet they haven't got an Ad out for a CFO?

He's definitely not compelled to spend his own money as hes in theory only transitory.

clown
09-09-2021, 03:07 PM
Buying at 0.21.... Good man!


Interim CFO gets into the mix with a small purchase

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378878/354390.pdf

$25k worth

Baa_Baa
09-09-2021, 03:08 PM
Interim CFO gets into the mix with a small purchase

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/378878/354390.pdf

$25k worth

CEO buys, Chair buys, now the CFO buys.

In simple terms, no one buys shares in anything that they think doesn't have an upside future. Insiders buying in succession post-Results is certainly a very good sign for fellow shareholders.

clown
09-09-2021, 03:09 PM
Some decent size on market trades today :t_up:

sb9
09-09-2021, 03:15 PM
CEO buys, Chair buys, now the CFO buys.

In simple terms, no one buys shares in anything that they think doesn't have an upside future. Insiders buying in succession post-Results is certainly a very good sign for fellow shareholders.

No one wants to miss out the party, wonder when will other Directors jump in if not already.

nztx
09-09-2021, 03:20 PM
No one wants to miss out the party, wonder when will other Directors jump in if not already.


which ones got a bonus from the job ? ;)

Looking sideways at NZM also under the spotlight - what could go wrong ? ;)

$2.15 post Share Consol may even be looking cheap in the scheme of things :)

A bit of attention in the spotlight & SKT could start looking sexy again :)

(hope all the old vans are long gone, even if they gave them away with a complimentary 12 Mth sub)

Alpha
09-09-2021, 03:28 PM
Broadband Router arrived yesterday and I have to say the smoothest/ (sexiest) transition I have had with an ISP.

Internet seems to be better as well. So far very happy with the move.
Received 12mths Disney for kids.

Neon has been great this lockdown for adults with all the new content.

SKY has been great for all the Olympics and currently enjoying the US open matches The womens singles with the young lady from Canadian has been very impressive. I wish I could play tennis this good.

I truly do not know what there is not to like in SKY any more. Onwards and upwards.

Panda-NZ-
09-09-2021, 05:47 PM
2c gain, up 5%. the wonder of penny stocks.

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 06:07 PM
the wonder of penny stocks.

Not for long!!

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 06:08 PM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/synlait-in-30m-sale-and-leaseback-deal-for-mangere-plant/SICDZCL5MMJ2ELS4HKX3WHDH6U/

These guys sold their land and buildings for over double what they paid in 2017.

Have negotiated a 10 year leaseback deal no sweat.

Sky should get a great deal for their campus. Not long until we find out just how much moolah we are getting.

nztx
09-09-2021, 07:18 PM
Is Vocus / Orcon etc DOWN yet again ? ;)

email seems to karked it .. again

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 07:31 PM
Is Vocus / Orcon etc DOWN yet again ? ;)

email seems to karked it .. again

Nope my internet good.

Vocus did amazing to sort that DDoS out in 40 mins.

ANZ and Kiwibank got hit yesterday and we’re still having problems this morning…

Their ISP was clearly not able to resolve it quickly.

nztx
09-09-2021, 07:38 PM
Nope my internet good.

Vocus did amazing to sort that DDoS out in 40 mins.

ANZ and Kiwibank got hit yesterday and we’re still having problems this morning…

Their ISP was clearly not able to resolve it quickly.


Out for 5-10 mins here tonight. have seen that before, but have been worse
outages in the old Orcon & prior times from what I remember

Baa_Baa
09-09-2021, 09:48 PM
The world is aflush with money.

Just lol if Sky can't do a deal anytime soon.

Double lol if Comcast passes on a takeover.

The best thing for Sky is to trade through and out of its issues, which it's making good progress against. Do the capital management, consolidation and buy-back hopefully

The worst thing would be a take over at ridiculously low SP. It would be all over, a binary decision, some recents might win but the majority would lose.

Short term vs long term view. They're doing fine under Sophie, let it run its course.

mistaTea
09-09-2021, 10:11 PM
The best thing for Sky is to trade through and out of its issues, which it's making good progress against. Do the capital management, consolidation and buy-back hopefully

The worst thing would be a take over at ridiculously low SP. It would be all over, a binary decision, some recents might win but the majority would lose.

Short term vs long term view. They're doing fine under Sophie, let it run its course.

Couldn’t agree more. Well said.

Alpha
10-09-2021, 11:15 AM
Looks like they are good at investing ;)

alokdhir
10-09-2021, 11:42 AM
Looks like they are good at investing ;)

Big question is whether we can follow them and get the rewards too ? Seems decent enough investment on turnaround story level too ...so just added advantage of their support also .

They just started and have 2 years minimum horizon and look for 400% returns typically from start to end levels ...so if they started from say 16 cents then around 75 cents in 2-3 years is their internal call ....IMHO

Alpha
10-09-2021, 11:53 AM
Happy with this I have been holding Sky for longer than this. What is another 2-3 years in the grand scheme of it.

mistaTea
10-09-2021, 12:05 PM
...so if they started from say 16 cents then around 75 cents in 2-3 years is their internal call ....IMHO

Christ I really hope you mean $7.50/share in 2-3 years! If Sky shares drop to 75c by then I can tell you right now mistaTea will be divorced!

winner69
10-09-2021, 12:07 PM
Do Osmium still have Rosetta Stone

alokdhir
10-09-2021, 12:27 PM
Christ I really hope you mean $7.50/share in 2-3 years! If Sky shares drop to 75c by then I can tell you right now mistaTea will be divorced!

Yes I meant $ 7.5 after consolidation ...in present terms 75 cents :D

Quantitative Easing
10-09-2021, 12:48 PM
Those that stay patient and believe in this stock will be rewarded handsomely and will end up in eternal paradise. Skyhuakbar!

Baa_Baa
10-09-2021, 02:07 PM
Whats their target now?

"our fair value estimate will lift to NZD 3.00 per share (or AUD 2.90 at the current exchange rate) on the day, up from the current NZD 0.30 per share"

mikelee
10-09-2021, 02:16 PM
what happen to the rocket? was just wondering how it's done

nztx
10-09-2021, 03:29 PM
Bit of a stand off but no one had sold down to 20.5 which is good.

Looks like accumulation bots absorbing supply.

I'm thinking that this share consolidation is for buybacks if a deal falls through.


Be b-all shares left if they do a BB after Consolidation though ? ;)

the way things are going they may start running out of shares to cancel or consolidate .. ;)

The good news - once a holding reach a solitary single share, it becomes a compulsary buy up & cancel .. ;)

mistaTea
10-09-2021, 03:31 PM
Be b-all shares left if they do a BB after Consolidation though ? ;)

the way things are going they may start running out of shares to cancel or consolidate .. ;)

Not really.

They will have about 175M shares outstanding after consolidation.

If they do a buyback, they will probably only be able to reduce that to 150M-155M depending on what the SP is when they do the buying.

nztx
10-09-2021, 03:32 PM
Not really.

They will have about 175M shares outstanding after consolidation.

If they do a buyback, they will probably only be able to reduce that to 150M-155M depending on what the SP is when they do the buying.


I'm concerned for Ogg -- he may not have as many left as he thought after all the mixing, combining
and we'll have some back finishes .. ;)

alokdhir
10-09-2021, 03:35 PM
Not really.

They will have about 175M shares outstanding after consolidation.

If they do a buyback, they will probably only be able to reduce that to 150M-155M depending on what the SP is when they do the buying.

Normally share spilts are small investor friendly as it unlocks more value by making the perception of them very cheap ...works very well on some asian markets ....here consolidation ie reverse is being done ...on paper its investor unfriendly move ...dont really understand the logic ...maybe they dont like their shares being so cheap so remove one 0 ...lol

mistaTea
10-09-2021, 03:37 PM
The wishful thinking in me still hopes that Sky get a massive price for the campus - $80M+.

Huge campus, proximity to CBD etc etc.

But then it does have some drawbacks with the cross lease etc. Also, it is Mt Wellington at the end of the day. As OCA shareholders will tell you on their ST forum - they wouldn't want to be anywhere near it.

But if they can at least get around the $60M mark it will be worth selling. That would give them about $100M to play with.

In that scenario, I think they would do a $50M buyback, and then reinstate a dividend policy in Feb.

Quantitative Easing
10-09-2021, 11:28 PM
The wishful thinking in me still hopes that Sky get a massive price for the campus - $80M+.

Huge campus, proximity to CBD etc etc.

But then it does have some drawbacks with the cross lease etc. Also, it is Mt Wellington at the end of the day. As OCA shareholders will tell you on their ST forum - they wouldn't want to be anywhere near it.

But if they can at least get around the $60M mark it will be worth selling. That would give them about $100M to play with.

In that scenario, I think they would do a $50M buyback, and then reinstate a dividend policy in Feb.


Those OCA investors dont know the Auckland market. Mt Wellington is like Hobokken or Jersey City in Greater New York. Very well located to the CBD and it is still Auckland Isthmus. The cross-lease might be an issue though. If you're a property investor the five suburbs you look at now in Auckland for urban regeneration gains are Glen Innes, Mt Wellington, Papatoetoe, Onehunga and Avondale...

snigmac
11-09-2021, 08:10 AM
Those OCA investors dont know the Auckland market. Mt Wellington is like Hobokken or Jersey City in Greater New York. Very well located to the CBD and it is still Auckland Isthmus. The cross-lease might be an issue though. If you're a property investor the five suburbs you look at now in Auckland for urban regeneration gains are Glen Innes, Mt Wellington, Papatoetoe, Onehunga and Avondale...

Being cross lease shouldn't be too big an issue. Cross lease is fee simple (but with shared owners) and can be returned to fee simple with consent and some work.

LaserEyeKiwi
11-09-2021, 09:24 AM
I think expectations should still be in the $30-$50 million range for the property sale.

airedale
13-09-2021, 02:00 PM
Last trades tomorrow pre-consolidation and trading halt on Wednesday, normal trading resumes Friday.

mistaTea
13-09-2021, 04:46 PM
Extended Auckland lockdown should help keep those Sky subs sticky...

Adolf Ardern has locked us up for another week!

Saint Bloomfield is kind though. He says if we (Auckland) obey him to the letter of the law he might let us get takeaways next week...

Quantitative Easing
14-09-2021, 10:04 AM
I have a feeling this might hit $2 by Friday.

Balance
14-09-2021, 10:09 AM
I have a feeling this might hit $2 by Friday.

Air has gone out of the story for the moment.

SP going back to 20c by end of close today as traders & momentum players (we know who they are) bail out.

Balance
14-09-2021, 11:08 AM
You shouldn't have locked in profits bro!

What you do with the cash, buy more A2? Cage.

There's a massive buy bot at 20.5 soaking up the supply.

Buy back program should happen after consolidation which will further tighten the registry.

Should break this trading pattern by ASM.

I'm still hopeful for a takeover by EOY.

Still pivoting.

I am making market observations.

Happy to keep the shares I have.

JohnnyTheHorse
14-09-2021, 11:12 AM
Air has gone out of the story for the moment.

SP going back to 20c by end of close today as traders & momentum players (we know who they are) bail out.

I'd suggest most traders would be looking to add rather than sell on this weakness. Fairly textbook daily bullflag could be forming. A break would have a short term price target of around 25c.

Balance
14-09-2021, 11:15 AM
I'd suggest most traders would be looking to add rather than sell on this weakness. Fairly textbook daily bullflag could be forming. A break would have a short term price target of around 25c.

Traders love the 0.5c spread - when it consolidates to $2.00, movements will be in 1c increments, not as attractive for trading.

JohnnyTheHorse
14-09-2021, 11:33 AM
Traders love the 0.5c spread - when it consolidates to $2.00, movements will be in 1c increments, not as attractive for trading.

For me personally the 0.5c spread has stopped me day trading it. Not interested in the risk/reward a large spread presents. Might be able to play the game of ping pong making the 0.5c a few times, but the one time you get it wrong will erase all of those profits. I think we'll see a spike in volume again once the spread is much tighter on Friday.

Disc: long term holding and swing trades untouched.

LaserEyeKiwi
14-09-2021, 12:05 PM
I’m always amazed at the psychological impact from share splits or consolidations, even within my own thoughts despite being very much a believer in the fact it changes absolutely nothing fundamentally with the company.

For instance I am actually wondering aloud whether a takeover offer may be more successful post consolidation vs now, as for some reason I think a $2.50 per share takeover offer sounds like a better premium over $2.05, than a 25c per share takeover offer does over a 20.5c share price, despite being the exact same percentage premium.

mistaTea
14-09-2021, 12:39 PM
I’m always amazed at the psychological impact from share splits or consolidations, even within my own thoughts despite being very much a believer in the fact it changes absolutely nothing fundamentally with the company.

For instance I am actually wondering aloud whether a takeover offer may be more successful post consolidation vs now, as for some reason I think a $2.50 per share takeover offer sounds like a better premium over $2.05, than a 25c per share takeover offer does over a 20.5c share price, despite being the exact same percentage premium.

We won’t be left wondering for long.

It is possible that part of the rationale for the infamous capital raise is that it worked well as a defensive move (in addition to raising funds to pay the bonds back).

Much harder for someone to acquire 20% of 1.74B shares than 20% of 414M shares.

LEMON
14-09-2021, 01:00 PM
Yet management also just bought shares, so that rules out the idea of a TO for the next while

mistaTea
14-09-2021, 01:04 PM
Yet management also just bought shares, so that rules out the idea of a TO for the next while

Absolutely no takeover, merger or any type of major acquisition in the works right now.

LEMON
14-09-2021, 01:13 PM
Post consolidation will just make the stock look more inviting, we already feel its way undervalued so post-consolidation should help renew some interest and safety in the SKT shares, then SKT will begin paying dividends and the market will view the stock as less volatile and a more worthy investment. IMO

nztx
14-09-2021, 01:14 PM
Absolutely no takeover, merger or any type of major acquisition in the works right now.


That must be positive then ? ;)

looks like Ogg might be locked in for the long haul ;)

Dividends in future may help ease the pain & ease things upwards ..

LaserEyeKiwi
14-09-2021, 01:17 PM
Absolutely no takeover, merger or any type of major acquisition in the works right now.

well at least there is a new substantial institutional holder who looks to be steadily accumulating, possibly building a 19.9% stake in advance of a takeover.

jimdog31
14-09-2021, 01:25 PM
Do you think this is them?

https://i.imgur.com/5YzO8w0.jpg

C'mon Ogg, we all know it only costs you $10 a pop to come up with these names.......

jimdog31
14-09-2021, 01:29 PM
C'mon Ogg, we all know it only costs you $10 a pop to come up with these names.......


Ill save you the trouble

https://imgur.com/a/T78mjew

jimdog31
14-09-2021, 01:32 PM
lol. Imagine doing this then posting it on the Sharesis forum.

(note: do not do the above)

Would need the company to be call "TO THE MOON LIMITED" for that to be effective

jimdog31
14-09-2021, 01:37 PM
Would need the company to be call "TO THE MOON LIMITED" for that to be effective

And to be fair it looks like theyve all moved on from SKT to an actual Rocket company anyway, appropriate

thegreatestben
14-09-2021, 02:41 PM
I'm in, need some excitement!

Balance
14-09-2021, 03:28 PM
Could be a pump at close today before trading stops.

If anything, Osmium will give it a shove down?

As I wrote before, stock is underpinned by them at 20c, soon to be $2.00.

mikelee
14-09-2021, 04:14 PM
I've done my best to keep it at 0.21 today lol.

mistaTea
14-09-2021, 04:38 PM
I've done my best to keep it at 0.21 today lol.

Hopefully SP drops after consolidation if Osmium lay off buying for a while.

Wouldn't mind raising my post-consolidation holding to 300K shares. The cheaper the better.

see weed
14-09-2021, 04:53 PM
I'm in, need some excitement!
I'm out, need some excitement, and maybe in again on Friday:D.

moimoi
14-09-2021, 07:02 PM
Hopefully SP drops after consolidation if Osmium lay off buying for a while.

Wouldn't mind raising my post-consolidation holding to 300K shares. The cheaper the better.

Have you considered the possibility of de-risking / portfolio re-balancing by taking some of your $500k odd off the table..?

Just wondering...

GLTA.

mistaTea
14-09-2021, 07:13 PM
Have you considered the possibility of de-risking / portfolio re-balancing by taking some of your $500k odd off the table..?



The thought has never even occurred to me.

nztx
14-09-2021, 07:16 PM
The thought has never even occurred to me.


Don't worry - Ogg will be along soon to tell us there isn't really a downslide ;)

Panda-NZ-
14-09-2021, 07:20 PM
All in 500k plus margin loan at 100% on SKT.

Hehe, only kidding.

nztx
14-09-2021, 08:43 PM
All in 500k plus margin loan at 100% on SKT.

Hehe, only kidding.

The SKT Boss Lady might be prepared to consider rustling up a handsome divvy to help
paying the interest in time .. lol ;)

mistaTea
15-09-2021, 09:00 AM
Trading Halt.

SP on NZX $2.05.

My shares haven’t been worth over two dollars since 2018!

Philip Bowman is a brilliant man.

Haven’t updated my ASB account yet so it says my shares are worth $5.535M!

Given it is Maori language week it is appropriate to use the te reo term here…

CHUR EA PHILIP!

JohnnyTheHorse
15-09-2021, 09:03 AM
Had a real 'guh' moment this morning opening the Direct Broking portfolio. They have already adjusted the cost price of SKT, so the position is showing down ~90% :eek2:

BIRMANBOY
15-09-2021, 09:07 AM
Heres a quick reminder for direct broking (jarden has it right)...check your market value for basic maths before you implement it :scared:

RGR367
15-09-2021, 09:14 AM
Trading Halt.

SP on NZX $2.05.

My shares haven’t been worth over two dollars since 2018!

Philip Bowman is a brilliant man.

Haven’t updated my ASB account yet so it says my shares are worth $5.35M!

Given it is Maori language week it is appropriate to use the te reo term here…

CHUR EA PHILIP!

Same but not that much as mine is only saying it has appreciated by more than a grand %. :p

thebusinessman
15-09-2021, 10:24 AM
Yes it was a nice dream to look at the ASB portfolio this morning... then I "sold" them for $0.00 and it's back to reality.

Alpha
15-09-2021, 10:25 AM
Im rich. Yahoo.

Question re ASB i know when I have participated in Cap raises or had received had dividends reinvested I have had to manual update records.

Do I need to adjust shares manual on ASB now for this consolidation or will it automatically adjust?

Rustycage
15-09-2021, 10:27 AM
We’re rich! Congrats to all holders :D

Alpha
15-09-2021, 10:30 AM
Im rich. Yahoo.

Question re ASB i know when I have participated in Cap raises or had received had dividends reinvested I have had to manual update records.

Do I need to adjust shares manual on ASB now for this consolidation or will it automatically adjust?

No need to answer that - Have manual adjusted. One day ASB will update the platform.

mistaTea
15-09-2021, 10:45 AM
Im rich. Yahoo.

Question re ASB i know when I have participated in Cap raises or had received had dividends reinvested I have had to manual update records.

Do I need to adjust shares manual on ASB now for this consolidation or will it automatically adjust?

I might show missusTea that our shares are now ‘worth’ $5.535M for my own nefarious purposes before I do the manual update…

Alpha
15-09-2021, 10:48 AM
HAHAHA nice. Yeah a mate just said that beers are on me. If only still happy with the current profit but wish it was truely over 1000% hahha

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 10:51 AM
The way its building at $ 2 sellers ...looks like it may open $ 2 down 5 cents :eek2:

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 10:55 AM
Implying that these orders are genuine, cage.

Lets hope they are not

winner69
15-09-2021, 10:57 AM
I might show missusTea that our shares are now ‘worth’ $5.535M for my own nefarious purposes before I do the manual update…

Only $5.535m ….I thought you had zillions

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 11:06 AM
Could you imagine 12 people waking up this morning absolutely panicking, jumping the gun, and dropping $500k worth of shares below market price, then have to wait 2 days before anything actually happens. Seriously, who would do that?

It's an obvious bot trying to influence the opening price so it can scam people.

The idiot running it likely didn't take an liberal art papers at uni. Pure autis.

Maybe it will help us get some at $ 2 ...then lets hope it opens @ $2 ...lol

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 11:09 AM
Could you imagine 12 people waking up this morning absolutely panicking, jumping the gun, and dropping $500k worth of shares below market price, then have to wait 2 days before anything actually happens. Seriously, who would do that?

It's an obvious bot trying to influence the opening price so it can scam people.

The idiot running it likely didn't take an liberal art papers at uni. Pure autis.

Or we all can counter that move by putting large orders @ $3 ...if all put then it shows till Friday morning ...we can also take them away before opening ...if they can do so can we ...what say WE ? ....lol

Alpha
15-09-2021, 11:13 AM
ASX Shares only worth 20cents

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 11:16 AM
Yeah, implying ASB won't mysteriously go offline.

:eek2::scared::ohmy:

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 11:28 AM
O no, look at all the sells at $2!

I'm going to sell all my shares at $1.95 and cut in front of the line.

Now, where did I put the yellow pages so I can call my broker and arrange this transaction.

Why u need broker ...we can do off market transaction here ...$ 1.95 agreed ? For all your holding in one go ? How many u have ? 5 million shares after consolidation or before ?

alokdhir
15-09-2021, 11:36 AM
Sure, just Western Union the funds to my sister in Nigeria.

Normally the email from Nigeria is looking to do funds transfer out not in ...But will do as told

Alpha
15-09-2021, 11:47 AM
On the ASX we have.



Market depth data is unavailable. Please try again.

lifeau
15-09-2021, 11:48 AM
where can you see market depth without NZX account ?

LoungeLizzard
15-09-2021, 12:04 PM
On the ASX we have.



Market depth data is unavailable. Please try again.



As it should be. NZX is enabling market manipulation.

LoungeLizzard
15-09-2021, 12:20 PM
where can you see market depth without NZX account ?

ASB has rating depth. But as I say, the NZX should be having a good look at the intent of these trades stacking up at below market price.

Snow Leopard
15-09-2021, 12:23 PM
ASX Shares only worth 20cents


On the ASX we have.



Market depth data is unavailable. Please try again.



You looking at SKT or SKTDA ?

But trading halt till Friday so who cares?

RGR367
15-09-2021, 12:35 PM
https://i.imgur.com/02Km3Pm.jpg

Lol. If you believe that's a true representation of the buy or sell orders, then I got an Auckland bridge to sell too :cool:

nztx
15-09-2021, 01:00 PM
Lol. If you believe that's a true representation of the buy or sell orders, then I got an Auckland bridge to sell too :cool:



No thanks - the Deep Cleaning exercise required before considering taking it away would be far too onerous & expensive .. ;)


Aside from that there isn't enough Advertising space for Hanging Up all the Public Announcements on just the one other White Elephant
visible on the Sky Line .. ;)

jimdog31
15-09-2021, 02:02 PM
Half the total order volume at $2 is now gone.

Has anyone here actually put a sell order on market?

Wondering if you can place pre consolidated orders on market and sell 10x what you actually have, hence that's why it's glitching out.

The NZX really needs to purge all the orders until Friday morning.

You guys make me lol.... Why are we worried about market depth etc today of all days!

Everybody chill, Winstone.

mistaTea
15-09-2021, 02:04 PM
You guys make me lol.... Why are we worried about market depth etc today of all days!

Everybody chill, Winstone.

It's just absolutely lunatic mate.

thegreatestben
15-09-2021, 02:10 PM
It’s not sharesies, they won’t stand for it:

“ This share consolidation will be processed through Sharesies from Wednesday 15 September 2021 to Thursday 16 September 2021. If you place a buy or sell order for SKT shares between these dates your order will be cancelled.”

jimdog31
15-09-2021, 02:24 PM
https://i.imgur.com/78dMHmO.jpg



"Mt Wellington Estate"

Land development and subdivision!

What you reckon?

With the way the Auckland unitary plan is mate, a single large house section being developed could potentially be called this....

sb9
15-09-2021, 02:27 PM
You guys make me lol.... Why are we worried about market depth etc today of all days!

Everybody chill, Winstone.

Couldn't agree more, thought this thread would've gone quiet today and tomorrow with halt in place. All those bids will be adjusted come Friday pre-open. NZX should clear all trading depth information until that time.

jimdog31
15-09-2021, 02:30 PM
Couldn't agree more, thought this thread would've gone quiet today and tomorrow with halt in place. All those bids will be adjusted come Friday pre-open. NZX should clear all trading depth information until that time.

Its just pregame nervous tension rising to the surface. Lets put on some headphones. Go to our happy places.

LoungeLizzard
15-09-2021, 02:32 PM
Couldn't agree more, thought this thread would've gone quiet today and tomorrow with halt in place. All those bids will be adjusted come Friday pre-open. NZX should clear all trading depth information until that time.

Well, that is sort of the point people are making. There should be no trading depth until market opens at post consolidation price of $2.05. Then let the market rip. It may be a technical point to some, but it's a bad look for the NZX.

lifeau
15-09-2021, 02:35 PM
ASX even worse, just bots



BUYERSNUMBER
BUYERSVOLUME
BUYERSPRICE $
SELLERSPRICE $
SELLERSVOLUME
SELLERSNUMBER



1
5,000
1.210
2.680
5,730
1


1
12,888
1.200

airedale
15-09-2021, 03:17 PM
Just to move the conversation away from today's conspiracy theories, I rang and cancelled Sky Movies today. I have got tired of the selection of trashy American glossy love stories, horror movies and teenage stuff. There is not enough quality British {type] content. As my daughter would probably say " I am not in the target market demographic" So a saving of $1088.36 per annum.

LoungeLizzard
15-09-2021, 03:28 PM
Just to move the conversation away from today's conspiracy theories, I rang and cancelled Sky Movies today. I have got tired of the selection of trashy American glossy love stories, horror movies and teenage stuff. There is not enough quality British {type] content. As my daughter would probably say " I am not in the target market demographic" So a saving of $1088.36 per annum.

Heartwarming. Now, back to the conspiracy theories...

mistaTea
15-09-2021, 05:50 PM
Heartwarming. Now, back to the conspiracy theories...

Well some posters will be most displeased to note that, according to ASB securities, there is now 1 seller ready to drop 4000 shares at $1.99 a piece!

We should all definitely start losing our minds without delay and spend as much energy as possible pontificating over and debating the matter!

LoungeLizzard
15-09-2021, 06:34 PM
Well some posters will be most displeased to note that, according to ASB securities, there is now 1 seller ready to drop 4000 shares at $1.99 a piece!

We should all definitely start losing our minds without delay and spend as much energy as possible pontificating over and debating the matter!

Agreed. That's what we're here for - anyone can talk fundamentals but it takes a very particular set of skills to spot a conspiracy. :glare:

mistaTea
15-09-2021, 06:41 PM
Agreed. That's what we're here for - anyone can talk fundamentals but it takes a very particular set of skills to spot a conspiracy. :glare:

God that needs a Liam Neeson gif so bad…

winner69
15-09-2021, 06:43 PM
Sky Stadium has got a new name

Te Whare Tapere o Tūārangi

Cool eh

kiora
15-09-2021, 06:58 PM
Sky Stadium has got a new name

Te Whare Tapere o Tūārangi

Cool eh

Is the government the new stadium sponsor?

Balance
15-09-2021, 07:08 PM
Sky Stadium has got a new name

Te Whare Tapere o Tūārangi

Cool eh

Sounds like a toilet?

Or is it what is in the toilet?

Balance
15-09-2021, 07:37 PM
BOOM!

Goodnight Sweet Prince.

Fly trap confirmed working.

Can be sure the sp is going to drop like a stone when the conspiracy theories start.

chicomendes
15-09-2021, 07:58 PM
Obviously, maybe they can buy out SKY TV and rename it to

Habits
15-09-2021, 08:56 PM
Sky Stadium has got a new name

Te Whare Tapere o Tūārangi

Cool eh

TV1s weatherman did a grand job of bilingual weather.

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 08:37 AM
its 8.37am and im surprised you havent commented on the new CFO yet Ogg :D

sb9
16-09-2021, 08:42 AM
its 8.37am and im surprised you havent commented on the new CFO yet Ogg :D

This piece of news is enough to keep this thread humming today until we resume trading tomorrow ;)

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 08:43 AM
This piece of news is enough to keep this thread humming today until we resume trading tomorrow ;)

Im settling in for a day filled with conspiracies , new, old and regurgitated. cant wait!

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 08:47 AM
Im settling in for a day filled with conspiracies , new, old and regurgitated. cant wait!

all jokes aside, what interesting timing for this announcement!

sb9
16-09-2021, 08:49 AM
all jokes aside, what interesting timing for this announcement!

Not just that, its the guy they nabbed from Vodafone.

clown
16-09-2021, 08:52 AM
SKY are definitely dealing their cards in the right order... Exciting times ahead...

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 08:57 AM
as we “lean” into…..

lean is usually synonomous with restructures

JohnnyTheHorse
16-09-2021, 09:10 AM
Or the more likely scenario: Tom Gordon had a 3 month notice period, with contract signed yesterday and notice handed in to Vodafone.

I think Sky are better off evolving and growing the business in the interim. If (and that's still a big if) a takeover came, the longer it takes the higher the value will likely be for shareholders in my opinion.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:14 AM
Or the more likely scenario: Tom Gordon had a 3 month notice period, with contract signed yesterday and notice handed in to Vodafone.

I think Sky are better off evolving and growing the business in the interim. If (and that's still a big if) a takeover came, the longer it takes the higher the value will likely be for shareholders in my opinion.

Yes, but don't let common sense get in the way of a bullsh1t story mate! Ha!

Great that this guy is bringing significant telco experience to Sky.

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 09:18 AM
Yes, but don't let common sense get in the way of a bullsh1t story mate! Ha!

Great that this guy is bringing significant telco experience to Sky.

and, id say with 20 years at vodafone you’d only make the move if you felt comfortably around the long term strategy that Sky is deploying, especially as the CFO.

This should be marked price sensitive, as I believe its a positive indicator

Quantitative Easing
16-09-2021, 09:18 AM
Tom is currently Head of Finance for Vodafone New Zealand, and has operated in a range of seniorfinance roles at Vodafone including Interim CFO during the sale of Vodafone to Infratil andBrookfields. Yup it's confirmed, Sky is positioning themselves for a sale.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:25 AM
and, id say with 20 years at vodafone you’d only make the move if you felt comfortably around the long term strategy that Sky is deploying, especially as the CFO.

This should be marked price sensitive, as I believe its a positive indicator

I was just thinking that before as I was making a coffee and mulling it over! No way would this guy ditch his career at Vodafone to go to Sky if he thought the prospects weren't good.

I agree, this is a vote of confidence in a way.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:27 AM
Yeah, your Telco merger stories are getting in the way and they smell bad.

For the 50th time, there are no mergers, acquisitions or any other kind of deal in the works.

I like the idea of a Sky telco, but for some time now have been saying that is not happening any time soon.

This whole fantasy of yours mate...you need to let it go.

You spent a few days last week trying to show sharetrader what a 'serious guy' you are. Straight up investor! Ha!

I was wondering how long it would take you to fly off the handle again. Turns out I didn't have to wait very long!

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 09:27 AM
Clearly, he wouldn't go from Vodafone to Sky, that would be a downgrade.

He's taking the job on December 15th because by then Sky NZ will be a subsidiary of Comcast.

Then Tom will update his Linkedin profile with Comcast branding.

This is why James is waiting too.

lol, cmon Ogg the comcast ship has left the harbour. the 3 insider buying was the final moorings being untied.

Akane
16-09-2021, 09:28 AM
It could be things are not looking great for him at Vodafone, after spending 16 years there and he's a Head Of, maybe he's aiming higher, like a solid GM or CFO but he wasn't given that, so he says screw this I'm going over to SKT for a position that I'm promised of.

Or maybe he's not getting along with the politics at VF and just wants a change.

You never know.

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 09:29 AM
lol, cmon Ogg the comcast ship has left the harbour. the 3 insider buying was the final moorings being untied.

If anything were happening in the M+A space, this CFO appt would probably be more in line with vocus merger or buyout, not comcast

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:33 AM
It could be things are not looking great for him at Vodafone, after spending 16 years there and he's a Head Of, maybe he's aiming higher, like a solid GM or CFO but he wasn't given that, so he says screw this I'm going over to SKT for a position that I'm promised of.

Or maybe he's not getting along with the politics at VF and just wants a change.

You never know.

Yeah, there could be an endless range of reasons he may leave his current role. Could also be that he has achieved what he wants at Vodafone and wants to do something brand new, where he can take ownership. A Fresh start.

Could be something else entirely, and we can speculate until the cows come home.

But one thing is clear (in my mind)...he has discussed Sky with the leadership, taken a look at the business and what things they are planning for FY22 and beyond...and he likes what he sees. He may be wrong, but clearly he believes there is a solid future for Sky TV or else there is no way he ditches the comfort and certainty of Vodafone for a role at a business that is doomed.

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 09:39 AM
Yeah, there could be an endless range of reasons he may leave his current role. Could also be that he has achieved what he wants at Vodafone and wants to do something brand new, where he can take ownership. A Fresh start.

Could be something else entirely, and we can speculate until the cows come home.

But one thing is clear (in my mind)...he has discussed Sky with the leadership, taken a look at the business and what things they are planning for FY22 and beyond...and he likes what he sees. He may be wrong, but clearly he believes there is a solid future for Sky TV or else there is no way he ditches the comfort and certainty of Vodafone for a role at a business that is doomed.

and, he would have been involved in the failed merger, when sky was in a much more commanding position, so he must see an inflection point as Sophie described.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:42 AM
and, he would have been involved in the failed merger, when sky was in a much more commanding position, so he must see an inflection point as Sophie described.

Been reading some of John's old letters to shareholders...man that guy really knew how to write letters that educated you on the business.

Not the stock standard corporate bs you got from Martin and now Sophie. A bunch of words that say "we must do better" and blah blah blah but does not actually leave the reader any wiser as to what is happening with their business.

He reminds me of Buffett in the way he wrote his letters.

I do miss John.

Quantitative Easing
16-09-2021, 09:45 AM
Been reading some of John's old letters to shareholders...man that guy really knew how to write letters that educated you on the business.

Not the stock standard corporate bs you got from Martin and now Sophie. A bunch of words that say "we must do better" and blah blah blah but does not actually leave the reader any wiser as to what is happening with their business.

He reminds me of Buffett in the way he wrote his letters.

I do miss John.

I miss him too. At his peak he was one of the best CEOs in NZ.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 09:50 AM
I miss him too. At his peak he was one of the best CEOs in NZ.

Yeah, he built one of the largest businesses in NZ pretty well from scratch. They were still broadcasting UHF when he first took over as CEO!

Once he saw NETFLIX come in and understood the ramifications of OTT he created a terrific plan to secure sharehodler value by doing the Vodafone merger. Comcom absolutely f*cked him on that one, and I think most people think that was a bad decision in hindsight.

He did make a few blunders along the way, but he got way more things right than he did wrong...and he did always have shareholders front of mind. He would get outbid for rights all the time because he understood the value content had, and would not overpay.

Anyway, I could go on - but I am a bit of a JF fanboy I must confess.

I would welcome him back on The Board. I think it would do the business a lot of good.

airedale
16-09-2021, 10:06 AM
John Fellett....a chief exec with very few shares and little financial stake in SKY. It did not inspire confidence.

Balance
16-09-2021, 10:17 AM
I miss him too. At his peak he was one of the best CEOs in NZ.

He overstayed his welcome and turned the company into a turd.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 10:29 AM
John Fellett....a chief exec with very few shares and little financial stake in SKY. It did not inspire confidence.

Yeah, that is a fair comment re: shares owned.

He should have owned more shares, no doubt.

But he was focussed on shareholder value, despite owning few shares himself.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 11:24 AM
O look, the 4000 order at $1.99 disappeared after the fake orders got pulled.

Justice prevails.

Nobody cares Egg.

Hush now, child.

Alpha
16-09-2021, 11:40 AM
Just FYI SKY broadband is reducing fee.

As I do not have Sky starter anymore. I am paying $109PM - This is being reduced to $99 dollar PM from 1st of October.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 11:44 AM
Just FYI SKY broadband is reducing fee.

As I do not have Sky starter anymore. I am paying $109PM - This is being reduced to $99 dollar PM from 1st of October.

Will mine reduce from $79 to $69?

Alpha
16-09-2021, 11:50 AM
It was just a random no caller ID that informed me.

I assume you should get a discount as well MistaTea

percy
16-09-2021, 11:52 AM
Just FYI SKY broadband is reducing fee.

As I do not have Sky starter anymore. I am paying $109PM - This is being reduced to $99 dollar PM from 1st of October.

After 30 years the wife saw red the other day,and rang Sky.Repeat after repeat,after repeat,after repeat,after repeat.
Our bill per month reduces from $114.29 to $70.22 for a year.
Be interesting fun seeing if Sky are successful in increasing our bill in a year's time.I have my doubts.
I only watch the All Blacks or Canterbury rugby.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 12:05 PM
Sky Broadband is obviously a hard sell.

The only way they will meet their targets is to give it away.

Goodbye divy!

Comcast will save the day and takeover. They can borrow $50b at 2% interest rate. They could offer Sky Broadband at $20 per month and still make money as they own all the repeat content.

You can expect $30 Sky and free Broadband per month when Comcast takeovers.

Nothing but a circus in the meantime.

Peps like MT living in La La Land and eating imaginary divy food.

Well, if all else fails…at least you have your $4000 net profit after 2 years to fall back on mate!

Baa_Baa
16-09-2021, 12:16 PM
Comcast will save the day and takeover.
You can expect $30 Sky and free Broadband per month when Comcast takeovers. [sic]

I say BS and once again you're exposing yourself to unintended consequences.

"1. Information-based manipulation (https://www.fma.govt.nz/investors/resources/market-manipulation/)


This is where someone says something - or otherwise shares information about a financial product - that they know (or should know) contains information that is false or seriously misleading."

"Market manipulation can happen in internet chat rooms and social media accounts used by those interested in trading securities. Users have to be careful not to post statements about certain companies, or particular market activity, that are not true or that they do not have a reason to believe are true. This sort of commentary may attract the interest of the NZX Surveillance team or the FMA."

Your posts are FOS and contravene the T&C's of Sharetrader website.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 12:23 PM
Just lol.

You can't have an opinion on this site.

It's public info that Comcast are interested in a takeover.

CEO said discussion are ongoing.

Stop baiting me.

Nobody at Sky has said that they have had any conversations about a merger or takeover with Comcast.

It was speculated on in a news article.

Nobody at Sky has said that any merger or acquisition conversations are ongoing with any specific company.

All they have said is they have brought Jarden on to “assess options” and those conversations (with Jarden) are ongoing.

You are damn lucky nobody has reported you for your constant drivel.

I have no doubt you are breaking all sorts of rules.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 12:36 PM
Yeah. Exactly.

Exactly nothing matey.

You are not just opining that SNT would make a good for a business like Comcast, and that the benefits are X, Y and Z...

You keep pushing your agenda as though a takeover is a 'sure thing' and that Comcast are specifically the buyers. Anytime any news is reported by Sky contrary to your agenda, you go apesh1t and push the takeover thing even harder.

That is absolutely misleading - because you really have absolutely no idea if that is true or not.

Anyway, you will never change but I do hope you don't push it too far to the point that you do get in trouble.

And besides, apart from 2 or 3 ST users who like to read your messages for amusement purposes, the majority of investors on this forum are well and truly over your nonsense.

mistaTea
16-09-2021, 12:45 PM
https://i.imgur.com/vg4GUix.jpg

When are you canceling your NBR subscription?

Perhaps you are actually just a moron and can't get the difference between a journalist speculating that PE and Comcast are 'tipped as suitors'...and you spreading a narrative that Comcast are definitely going to buy SNT "soon".

I am trying to give you some credit here mate, but when you post things like this it really makes me question your mental state!

jimdog31
16-09-2021, 12:52 PM
Perhaps you are actually just a moron and can't get the difference between a journalist speculating that PE and Comcast are 'tipped as suitors'...and you spreading a narrative that Comcast are definitely going to buy SNT "soon".

I am trying to give you some credit here mate, but when you post things like this it really makes me question your mental state!

Everybody just relax!!!

(joker-why-so-serious.gif)

We are all wound up cos SKT cant trade today or yday, we get it.

facts are, we are all up or close to being up now, so lets just take a breath in…….and out…..

Ogg - I value your takeover theories when they aren't unhinged…. but you've got to look in the mirror and accept that comcast is more than likely out of the picture. Something, sometime, will happen, I'm sure, maybe just not with comcast.

Mistatea - I value your doggedness when it comes to sticking by the fundamentals of the business.

I'm somewhere in the middle of both of these theories, so I value both of your contributions.

Doesn't mean we all cant fit onto the spectrum of reasons why we are invested in SKT (Spectrum being the key word here)

Lets just all co exist!

Disclaimer - I'm pretty sure I hold more qty than both of you combined, for a mixture of both of your reasons for holding.