SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[Balance]

Discovery want it all!!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/discovery-vs-tvnz-who-will-jump-first-in-the-paid-streaming-wars-in-2022/7YYXAMBNWXIYE2F62N5WIBZVU4/

Really surprised you did not add ‘and they can have it all by buying Sky’. :t_up:

[mistaTea]

Remember the NBR comment last January speculating that Discovery were interested in buying Sky, and the it got taken down by NBR.

Seriously tho, why bother trying to set up another streaming service when you can just buy an established player in the market and then get the full 100% margin on all resales.



Ok I’m sold!

I want $3/share but if they buy before Feb I am willing to give a prompt payment discount!

$2.95/share!

[mistaTea]

$2.30 bro!!!

No reserve auction!!

It might go higher but better to just get this on the block ASAP!



If Jarden weren’t so useless they would have lined the buyers up. God knows what they were doing.

PE, Orcon/2D, Voda, Discovery…maybe Nine and Foxtel across the ditch…Comcast, NBCUniversal…

So many potentials.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/discovery-vs-tvnz-who-will-jump-first-in-the-paid-streaming-wars-in-2022/7YYXAMBNWXIYE2F62N5WIBZVU4/

When you pause and reflect again on the fundamentals of Sky - they really do have it all. Linear, free to air, streaming...

Everything Discovery wants.

You would think Sky would be more valuable to the market than it is.

But management have been unable to exploit these advantages to maximum shareholder benefit so far.

[mistaTea]

They just need to be clearer about their intention to reinstate a divvy in Feb.

Pay 8.5c every 6 months, total of $30M payout which would probably represent 60%-70% of FCF.

$30M with a high yield of 7% would imply a market cap of $430M ($2.45/share). If the expected yield is lower and/or divvys are expected to increase over time then the market cap could go higher still.

It really isn't rocket science.

[Balance]

Like what Balance said, if they were going to pay a divy they would have done one by now. The divy is off bro! Forget the divy!

The plan from here is to sell the buildings and consolidate with one of the many choices out there in the market.

I don't think "valuation" is an issue anymore. Sky has been trading for the last 18 months around this level. Hence that's the value of Sky. So just add 30% premium on to that and bob's your uncle!!!

$2.30 is a good offer. Just gotta get that back on the table and work this. I'm sure it will end up around mid $2s, which is a good outcome for everyone.

Gee, what happened to the $4.00 and more being the number 3 months ago!

[jimdog31]

Like what Balance said, if they were going to pay a divy they would have done one by now. The divy is off bro! Forget the divy!

The plan from here is to sell the buildings and consolidate with one of the many choices out there in the market.

I don't think "valuation" is an issue anymore. Sky has been trading for the last 18 months around this level. Hence that's the value of Sky. So just add 30% premium on to that and bob's your uncle!!!

$2.30 is a good offer. Just gotta get that back on the table and work this. I'm sure it will end up around mid $2s, which is a good outcome for everyone.

I think youre right on this one. The board has said repeatedly that they think the market is “materially” undervaluing SKT. Its been 18 months and she aint moving, so i dont rellay care what they think its worth.

They’ll protest that theyve all bought in recently which shows that they are putting their money where the mouth is. In reality they all bought in when they thought osmium were going to keep pushing the price up.

I think $2.30 is where its at. Whats our best guess on the big boys average cost?

[mistaTea]

Like what Balance said, if they were going to pay a divy they would have done one by now. The divy is off bro! Forget the divy!

The plan from here is to sell the buildings and consolidate with one of the many choices out there in the market.

I don't think "valuation" is an issue anymore. Sky has been trading for the last 18 months around this level. Hence that's the value of Sky. So just add 30% premium on to that and bob's your uncle!!!

$2.30 is a good offer. Just gotta get that back on the table and work this. I'm sure it will end up around mid $2s, which is a good outcome for everyone.

Nah I’m calling bullsh1t. Divvy coming.

It just better ok!

They have no master plan to merge with anyone. And even if they did it would not be contingent on selling the campus.

They will do a divvy…but they are just being excessively cautious and not stating one will be paid JUST INCASE something changes adversely between now and Feb.

[mistaTea]

And the big boys like PK don’t want a takeover.

They see the SP going up way high after buybacks/divvy.

[Rustycage]

I’ll call my mate John Malone. He can offer cash or shares in Discovery, so those that want to can participate in the future Discovery/WB behemoth

I doubt he would offer us a good deal, but it would be done

Comcast on the other hand would probably offer the same multiple as they did for Sky UK! (Not really, Roberts isn’t a complete potato)

[moimoi]

We're selling guys! That's it! It's final! No divys! This show is over!

Opportunity Cost

RIVN probably gonna double tomorrow.

Can't stay in the SKTray of kitty litter any longer....

GLTA.

[mistaTea]

Opportunity Cost

RIVN probably gonna double tomorrow.

Can't stay in the SKTray of kitty litter any longer....

GLTA.

Bowman is going to make me very rich by Feb.

And then I will pretend I never called him Pooman.

[Balance]

Bowman is going to make me very rich by Feb.

And then I will pretend I never called him Pooman.

I tend to agree with you that various deals are being worked out in the background - matter of getting the property deal done first & everything will fall into place fast after that.

Shareholders will wake up one morning and find it’s all happening.

Any day now imo.

$2.50 to $2.75 is my pick of where SKT settles at when all the deals are done.

CEO did not buy on market at $1.80 for a 10% upside - that’s for sure!

Putting my money where my mouth is. :scared:

[Monarch]

It's been about a year since I bought into this lame dull dog hoping for dividends or buy backs. I'm giving it a few more months then I will probably escape. Just makes no sense that after all this time our debt free, cash flow positive business, has not returned a cent to us. What is their reasoning? Would it really be so terrible to have some debt? They could have taken debt against the property to pump some life into the share price with divi/buybacks, then when it finally sells in 2033 for half what we all expect they can pay the debt back. Put me out of my misery.

[mistaTea]

It's been about a year since I bought into this lame dull dog hoping for dividends or buy backs. I'm giving it a few more months then I will probably escape. Just makes no sense that after all this time our debt free, cash flow positive business, has not returned a cent to us. What is their reasoning? Would it really be so terrible to have some debt? They could have taken debt against the property to pump some life into the share price with divi/buybacks, then when it finally sells in 2033 for half what we all expect they can pay the debt back. Put me out of my misery.

Yeah I can’t understand the zero debt thing either.

Just makes no sense at all.

They could have borrowed $50M to pay for broadband, the STB and an entry into mobile.

All the while they could have been paying a divvy.

Just nuts.

[Balance]

Yeah I can’t understand the zero debt thing either.

Just makes no sense at all.

They could have borrowed $50M to pay for broadband, the STB and an entry into mobile.

All the while they could have been paying a divvy.

Just nuts.

Dividends?

Why go for the milk when you can get the cow?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well that blackcaps game I just finished watching was the best thing I have seen in a long time. I really hope Sky holds on to the ICC cricket events - All the best Blackcaps moments happen at these events - Spark must be livid.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/232415

Write up on Discovery.

Looks like the big announcement next year will be to introduce Discovery Plus.

[airedale]

I suspect that Bowman has gone back to the UK because he has completed his mission (whatever it was) and the deal has been done. There is no reason to stay. We just have to wait for the announcement.

[mistaTea]

I suspect that Bowman has gone back to the UK because he has completed his mission (whatever it was) and the deal has been done. There is no reason to stay. We just have to wait for the announcement.

Well, if his mission was to destroy the wealth of Sky shareholders and reduce transparency they yes - he smashed it out of the park and can enjoy a well earned cold beer in his favourite English pub.

But in reality I think he had enough of lockdowns, has the means to live wherever he wants and took the oportunity to head back to Europe.

If I had to make a prediction, I do think he will resign soon - by the Feb results. They still need to get this property deal done, so Bowman will need to sign off on that first (which he can now do with an e-Signature).

But after that is done, I think he will sling his hook. There are now two Directors living offshore, and one is the Chairman. It is just not realistic that Bowman is going to be able to fulfil his role and obligations half a world away.

He has proven to be an obstacle to mergers and takeovers. So once he leaves then, depending who replaces him, we may see a shift in position/approach.

With a little luck these guys have done the capital return and reinstated a dividend by then. Clearly a stronger SP will give shareholders a better chance of getting a good M&A type deal in the future.

From here I think we just sit tight and see how things unfold. We are right to be very upset with Bowman and the overall lack of disclosure...but we can all chill for now.

The warning shots have been fired, I do belive Sky have taken notice - let's see what they do from here.

[Almost-confused]

Article on NBR today about 2Degrees and Orcon/Vocus in exclusive merger discussions.... Did we know that??

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/2degrees-increases-profit-but-parent-takes-big-impairment-on-south-american-strife/OAZJGFCQHSONXPNRRFZBIW7CY4/

"2degrees' adjusted ebitda for the three months to September 30 edged up by US$1 million to US$30.6m - a 3 per cent gain on the year-ago quarter as gains in broadband and business mobile offset lower consumer growth amid lockdowns"

So EBITDA is ~NZ$43M.

Their stay in business CAPEX would be around that are more. Think of all those cellular towers...

So this business really makes no money yet will get around NZ$1.5B if media reports are correct.

Sky earns a lot more money but would be lucky to get NZ$0.5B in a sale.

It just boggles the mind. This is what makes it hard to get a merger done on reasonable terms to SKT shareholders while the SP is in the toilet.

They need to get a move on with selling the property and reimplementing the dividend to shift this around.

[mistaTea]

Sky needs to be a dividend paying stock to get interest back in. It really is that simple.

And it is baffling that they still seem to brag about the clean balance sheet courtest of the dillutory CR.

Well, the market does not seem to think very much about Sky being 'debt free' - if they were hoping the SP would rocket once we removed all debt because the market would have confidence in Sky's ability to operate as a Going Concern then they were sorely mistaken.

So we have had to pay for Broadband and the STB entirely from Operating cashflows. The total cost of both projects is probably in the $30M-$40M range.

Why in God's name would we not just borrow that money in this low interest environment and keep some form of divvy going?

Or borrow half and pay the other half from cashflow if you still want to be conservative/cautious?

An eventual entry into mobile will probably be another $15M there.

So all in for Broadband, STB and Mobile probably costs around $50M.

I would have been very comfortable borrowing $50M. But even if they were nervous Nellies about that they could borrow a modest $30M and top up the remaining $20M from cashfow over time...still would have left plenty of cash to distribute to shareholders.

The conservtive approach is not working Sky! You need to be more aggressive, get these intiatives delivered faster and for Christ's sake borrow some money!

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/2degrees-increases-profit-but-parent-takes-big-impairment-on-south-american-strife/OAZJGFCQHSONXPNRRFZBIW7CY4/

"2degrees' adjusted ebitda for the three months to September 30 edged up by US$1 million to US$30.6m - a 3 per cent gain on the year-ago quarter as gains in broadband and business mobile offset lower consumer growth amid lockdowns"

So EBITDA is ~NZ$43M.

Their stay in business CAPEX would be around that are more. Think of all those cellular towers...

So this business really makes no money yet will get around NZ$1.5B if media reports are correct.

Sky earns a lot more money but would be lucky to get NZ$0.5B in a sale.

It just boggles the mind. This is what makes it hard to get a merger done on reasonable terms to SKT shareholders while the SP is in the toilet.

They need to get a move on with selling the property and reimplementing the dividend to shift this around.

Ironically, the delay in sale of the property could have worked very well in SKT's favor.

Development land prices in Auckland have gone berserk since the joint announcement by Labour & National about further intensification & housing density rules for the main centres.

Like I wrote before, it's a matter of time - not if but when the property deal is done.

Then, everything being worked on in the background will happen in a rush.

Sp is where it is because the sp momentum has faltered and the traders are bailing out - not because the deals being worked on have dissipated.

[mistaTea]

Dividends?


Why go for the milk when you can get the cow?

LOL I still don't actually know what that means.

[Balance]

LOL I still don't actually know what that means.

Ask yourself : Is the milk worth the squeeze?

[mistaTea]

Dividends?

Why go for the milk when you can get the cow?

I mean this is either some incredibly high IQ sh1t going on here that just goes way over my head...

Or.... :D

[mistaTea]

Just lol at Discovery thinking they can roll out another paid streaming service in NZ and also two new channels!!! The market is tapped dry!!


Yeah I did laugh at that. Absurd to think that what Kiwis want is yet ANOTHER OTT service.

Aggregation is the only way forward now.

[mistaTea]

Ask yourself : Is the milk worth the squeeze?

Ok now you are just turning me on.

So you are saying why get dividends that would almost certainly lift the SP (the milk?) when Sky should just not pay me that and I get a...what? takeover instead? (the cow??)

I don't really get the cow though do I because after a one-off pay day for my shares I don't own the cow anymore...

[Quantitative Easing]

I was talking to some Sky employees little while back. They had mixed reviews about Martin. A lot of them had the view that Martin was only really at Sky to have a good holiday in NZ.

Also how the hell is Sophie running Sky from Nelson? Isn't that where Aucklanders go to retire? I wonder if she harps on about carbon emissions, corporate responsibility and other nice sounding things. That would be the biggest joke when you are flying into work i would assume couple of times a week.

We need people like Russel Creedy at Sky. He made selling fast food profitable. He made a turd into a diamond. Enough with this BS nice sounding things. Leave that to Jacinda. We need tangible results. Do a buyback, reinstate dividends, line up some buyers, do road shows in Singapore, Hong Kong, London and New York... We don't care if you learnt a new Te Reo word.

[mistaTea]

I swear the SP is down because of PK. He's to blame for all of this.



If he dumps any more stock I am going to start referring to his intials as PK from The Power of One.

[LoungeLizzard]

With NPAT of between $40-50m, no debt and property sale proceeds of around another $50m, I think even this Board could not justify a continuation of the no dividend policy. I understand the need to build a war chest to ensure they can continue to hold onto the rugby, expand content etc, but even allowing for all of that there's plenty in the coffers to finally start giving a return back to long suffering shareholders. There will be a revolt if they don't and the SP will continue to slide. Conversely the SP will strengthen back to $2.20-$2.30 as soon as they announce a return to regular dividends and perhaps a special dividend. It's a no-brainer, which is just as well as the Board seem to be operating without one at the moment.;)

[Balance]

Ok now you are just turning me on.

So you are saying why get dividends that would almost certainly lift the SP (the milk?) when Sky should just not pay me that and I get a...what? takeover instead? (the cow??)

I don't really get the cow though do I because after a one-off pay day for my shares I don't own the cow anymore...

The milk may (or may not) lift the sp while the cow is definitely worth a lot more when it is involved in M&A.

I can recall SKT being one of my best performing stocks when it was burning through cash building up subscriber numbers and not paying a single cent of dividend.

It's all about the squeeze.

[mistaTea]

We don't care if you learnt a new Te Reo word.

Blonde-haired, blue-eyed Sophie living in the Aryan capital of NZ must make sure the Maoris feel included and loved by Pakeha Inc.

It has really helped shift the brand proposition and lift the SP! Not.

[Balance]

Blonde-haired, blue-eyed Sophie living in the Aryan capital of NZ must make sure the Maoris feel included and loved by Pakeha Inc.

It has really helped shift the brand proposition and lift the SP! Not.

All the freaking media are into this Te Reo shxt these days - just so they are in the government's good book for the taxpayers' hand out.

[mistaTea]

Conversely the SP will strengthen back to $2.20-$2.30 as soon as they announce a return to regular dividends and perhaps a special dividend. It's a no-brainer, which is just as well as the Board seem to be operating without one at the moment.;)

Yes, but don't forget they had an opening offer of $2.30 in June.

So to deliver value to sharehoders now they actually need to implement policies (return of capital from campus sale and divvy) that get the SP above $2.30.

Anything at or below that and we would have been better off negotiating with PE. Almost certainly would have gotten them to raise their bid to $2.50+.

[mistaTea]

Ironically, the delay in sale of the property could have worked very well in SKT's favor.

Development land prices in Auckland have gone berserk since the joint announcement by Labour & National about further intensification & housing density rules for the main centres.



Deal should be wrapped up by now, but unfortunately when they Zoom granddad to discuss the latest offer it is 2am for him and he is very tired, grumpy and not thinking straight.

So it is just taking longer to do is all.

Nothing to worry about.

[LoungeLizzard]

Yes, but don't forget they had an opening offer of $2.30 in June.

So to deliver value to sharehoders now they actually need to implement policies (return of capital from campus sale and divvy) that get the SP above $2.30.

Anything at or below that and we would have been better off negotiating with PE. Almost certainly would have gotten them to raise their bid to $2.50+.

That offer has been and gone. Most of us would be happy to establish a new floor around $2.20-$2.30. But you're right that the business is worth $2.50 plus, even perhaps as much as $3.00 long term. It just needs a board that can inspire investor confidence that they are acting in shareholders best interests. They've cleaned the balance sheet, consolidated shares, reduced head count, got content deals wrapped up for next couple of years. Now the focus needs to be on getting the SP up where it belongs. The property deal is crucial to release funds. After that it should be plain sailing even with this ship of fools.

[Quantitative Easing]

Sophie Pooloney has to go!!

ZERO CEO experience. Just another babbling lawyer.

Chief People Officer while all that BS was happening behind the scenes.

Seriously, how did she get elected? She was just thrown in there when Martin bailed.


I think Mistatea should be the CEO and you should be the chairman. Moloney and Bowman out. It feels like as shareholders we are stuck in Soweto while the management gets to enjoy life in Sandton.

Gimme hope Mistatea
Hope Mistatea
Gimme hope Mistatea
'Fore the takeover to come

[mistaTea]

I think Mistatea should be the CEO and you should be the chairman. Moloney and Bowman out. It feels like as shareholders we are stuck in Soweto while the management gets to enjoy life in Sandton.

Gimme hope Mistatea
Hope Mistatea
Gimme hope Mistatea
'Fore the takeover to come

I would want to be Chairman & CEO like at Berkshire Hathaway.

I could turn Sky into a $500M business in short order:



Wrap up property sale. $50m capital return - Cancel 25M shares and pay each shareholder $2/share for each forfeit share. Essentially a one-off tax free divvy for shareholders that allows us to further reduce s/o to ~150M.
Leverage the Balance Sheet for new initiatives like Sky Mobile as well as remaining costs to launch the new STB. $20M-$25M should do it very comfortably.
Reintroduce a sustainable dividend. Probably start with $30M (split $15M every 6 months). A 6% yield would push the market cap to $500M ($3.33/share based on 150M s/o post capital return). Plenty of room to grow this divvy over time.


Then aggressively pursue merger opportunities.

You don't need to be a genius.

[LoungeLizzard]

I would want to be Chairman & CEO like at Berkshire Hathaway.

I could turn Sky into a $500M business in short order:



Wrap up property sale. $50m capital return - Cancel 25M shares and pay each shareholder $2/share for each forfeit share. Essentially a one-off tax free divvy for shareholders that allows us to further reduce s/o to ~150M.
Leverage the Balance Sheet for new initiatives like Sky Mobile as well as remaining costs to launch the new STB. $20M-$25M should do it very comfortably.
Reintroduce a sustainable dividend. Probably start with $30M (split $15M every 6 months). A 6% yield would push the market cap to $500M ($3.33/share based on 150M s/o post capital return). Plenty of room to grow this divvy over time.


Then aggressively pursue merger opportunities.

You don't need to be a genius.

You've got my vote!

[mistaTea]

You've got my vote!

These guys have had plenty of room over the last 2 years to try it their way...and they have failed to turn around the market perception.

Time for a change in the way of thinking. That is going to require some changes at Board level.

Absolutely no way should a business as cashflow positive as Sky be trading between $300-$320M market cap.

[Jay]

I would want to be Chairman & CEO like at Berkshire Hathaway.

I could turn Sky into a $500M business in short order:



Wrap up property sale. $50m capital return - Cancel 25M shares and pay each shareholder $2/share for each forfeit share. Essentially a one-off tax free divvy for shareholders that allows us to further reduce s/o to ~150M.
Leverage the Balance Sheet for new initiatives like Sky Mobile as well as remaining costs to launch the new STB. $20M-$25M should do it very comfortably.
Reintroduce a sustainable dividend. Probably start with $30M (split $15M every 6 months). A 6% yield would push the market cap to $500M ($3.33/share based on 150M s/o post capital return). Plenty of room to grow this divvy over time.


Then aggressively pursue merger opportunities.

You don't need to be a genius.


And my vote!

[mistaTea]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMQA-Pr7s4E

So I fit the bill then!

[mistaTea]

They keep touting this untapped $200M banking facility as a badge of honour.

F*ck that sh1t! Refusing to borrow ANY money is destroying shareholder value.

They need a bloody good rev up this lot.

Way, way, wayyyyyyy too conservative and slow.

[mistaTea]

When they sell the building most of that draw down will disappear.

They're better off not selling the building as it's only going to go up in value UNLESS there's a takeover happening straight after.
The drawdown will drop but not vanish.

I am sure sky can still borrow the amount needed for the projects post campus sale.

Not suggesting they should borrow up to the eyeballs.

But they should borrow some. We have already paid for broadband. We have paid the majority of the cost of the STB by now as they enter the final stages of testing.

We could probably borrow around $20M or so to over the rest of the STB costs and launch Sky Mobile next year.

That probably leaves the $35M cash in the bank should we need it.

Since the FY results were released, I estimate we are generating FCF of at between $40M-$50M a year ($3M-$4M a month). So every 6 months we probably produce $20M FCF. We could pay out $15M every 6 months for a 75% FCF payout ratio.

So by Feb we could pay a $15M HY dividend, still have $35M cash in the bank and $20M of borrowings to fund growth projects.

Still in an amazing financial position and payong a dividend which NZ shareholders love.

[LoungeLizzard]

https://i.imgur.com/hqYb73l.jpg

OSB and Rugbypass are gone.

The Mount Wellington Campus is likely the crown jewel in their property portfolio. What else do they have, the warehouse in Albany?

Current facility ends in 18 months. What would be the interest rate on this now given that interests rates are rising globally, 6%...7%? It costs 1m just to have the facility too.

The banks could pull the pin anytime and Sky would have to come up with the cash. Do you wanna another death placement?

I'm not saying Sky can't borrow, or that it shouldn't borrow. What I'm saying is that Sky isn't a blue chip infrastructure stock with regular earnings. The banks will likely be hesitant on any new leading, especially without any hard fixed assets. They too will be look at the share price and thinking this ship is sinking!

This is why it's important that Comcast or Discovery takes Sky over as they can borrow at 50 year bonds @ 3% rate.

Borrowing to pay a dividend is just stupid. The stock won't even go up. People will just sell it down.

Sky can continue to operate 'as is', BUT it's never going to reach it's full potential and hit the $100m revenue target under it's current ownership structure. The only way out from here is a takeover!

A takeover or merger would be the best outcome of all, but realistically I can't see it happening anytime soon. In the meantime there's a lot this Board can do right now to make the company more attractive to investors. They are at the helm of a company that has profits of $40-50m a year and they will soon be flush with funds and no debt. Are we really saying that without a takeover, this company has no future? All the metrics say otherwise. The SP shouldn't be where it is - it is a reflection of market sentiment that says it has no faith in the Board to make any sort of return to shareholders. If they demonstrated that intent by way of even a modest return to dividends I do believe that the market will see that as a major turning point in SKY becoming a reliable investment again, rather than the coin toss it is at the moment.

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/hqYb73l.jpg

OSB and Rugbypass are gone.

The Mount Wellington Campus is likely the crown jewel in their property portfolio. What else do they have, the warehouse in Albany?

Current facility ends in 18 months. What would be the interest rate on this now given that interests rates are rising globally, 6%...7%? It costs 1m just to have the facility too.

The banks could pull the pin anytime and Sky would have to come up with the cash. Do you wanna another death placement?

I'm not saying Sky can't borrow, or that it shouldn't borrow. What I'm saying is that Sky isn't a blue chip infrastructure stock with regular earnings. The banks will likely be hesitant on any new leading, especially without any hard fixed assets. They too will be look at the share price and thinking this ship is sinking!

This is why it's important that Comcast or Discovery takes Sky over as they can borrow at 50 year bonds @ 3% rate.

Borrowing to pay a dividend is just stupid. The stock won't even go up. People will just sell it down.

Sky can continue to operate 'as is', BUT it's never going to reach it's full potential and hit the $100m revenue target under it's current ownership structure. The only way out from here is a takeover!

LOL, appreciate the temptation to fit everything into the "only way is a takeover" idea.

But...it just is not true.

Sky could easily borrow $20M even after the campus sale and pay the $1.2M interest. They could negotiate a longer borrowing term etc.

And the notion that 'borrowing to pay dividends is just stupid' is LOL. That means that all businesses with high market caps that pay dividends and have debt are stupid.

Just not the case. A business like Sky does not want to borrow to the point that we are over our heads as I stated before...but we don't need to go to the other end of the spectrum where any debt it seen as bad.

We need to be more aggressive than that.

[LoungeLizzard]

Sky have earnings per share of something like 27c. What business can't pay a dividend with that sort of income? And what does it say about the Boards confidence in either themselves or the business or both, that they still don't feel they can pay even 10 cents a share.

[LoungeLizzard]

It's possible without a takeover, if you wait long enough it might come right.

If a takeover doesn't come, don't be surprised when February rolls around and the "capital management plan" is another disappointment. At best it will be a tiny dividend with more bull sh*t talk about wanting to reinvest earnings back into the business for growth.

This stock use to be a cash cow business. That's why the shareprice was so high 5 years ago. Lots of old 'ma and pa' investors bought it for the high dividends. They didn't invest for growth. They just paid out dividends and the market loved that. Smart people knew this was a flawed long term strategy and Sky was eventually caught with it's pants down. Now they're back at square one talking about a reset with a transformation strategy, but this requires investment and capital!!! HENCE NO DIVY!

The bottom line is that this company has no future over the short to medium term. The stock will be poo hole, even if it went under new management nothing will change.

Soon 2025 will roll along and NZRU will want double the amount or they'll be off talking to Amazon!!

IT'S OVER GUYS! THIS OLD COW AN'T MILKING ANYMORE!!! Why hang around for a little bit of old sour milk 2 or 3 years from now!

The way out of this is to "play the field" with the many potential buyers that are interested in the 1 million customers and strong established market and brand that Sky has. We don't need to name the list again, we all know it's long and they all have CASH!

This is how Sky UK ended up selling for so much. When it came up for sale, all the buyers rushed in!!! Sky NZ just needs to onto the selling block. It's not out of the question that it could run to $4 on a bidding war. I'm not saying it will happen, just saying it's a great chance of happening than Sky ever paying a decent dividend.

Besides, who wants to pay tax! This is NZ! There's no capital tax here!!!

Then you have two choices. Sell at a loss now, or start earning now via a modest dividend. Because, really, there's no cavalry coming over the hill. And the only man in a cape is Bowman walking the streets of Soho in the rain.

[mistaTea]

It's possible without a takeover, if you wait long enough it might come right.


IT'S OVER GUYS! THIS OLD COW AN'T MILKING ANYMORE!!! Why hang around for a little bit of old sour milk 2 or 3 years from now!



What 2 or 3 years?

Divvy in Feb will push SP up right away.

And you should want that even in the takeover scenario. Stronger SP gets us a better deal.

[mistaTea]

Sophie just needs to have a korero with the Board about resuming dividends to get the SP back up so that she has more options moving forward.

[LoungeLizzard]

Apparently we'll find out by February.

A tax free capital return from the proceeds of the property seems likely but it would probably end up being this time next year before you see any cash. Then there's the question as to weather this is already 'baked' into the share price.

The board will be thinking why pay a dividend when you're trying to grow the streaming and broadband business and pricing in increased cost pressures from content acquisition.

It's a fallacy to think that the share price will go up because it resumes paying a dividend.

The only certainty is a cash offer.

Larger holders like Black Crane, ACC, Blackrock, Ossium, Fidelity, (not to mention all the freebies who got in at the 12c shortfall), have all bought in at a low entry.

Jupiter, Kilteren, NZUR, Rugbypass are the only ones missing out. But they've already been bulldozed or have sold down.

No body cares about retail.

The point is, who wants to wait around for this dog to come right? Hardly any volume on the ASX and all the Shareis users hate this stock.

I swear, even if this stock was paying a 10% dividend yield the shareprice won't move!

If you say to me that you're a long term holder and you'll willing to wait 10 years, then yeah, MAYBE, you'll come out slightly better then a takeover, but JUST LOL.

The bottom line is what "moimoi" said a few pages back, and he's been a member here since the year 2000, and only 500 posts! He said "RIVN probably gonna double tomorrow." He was pretty much right, it was up 50%!!

Sky have 35m in cash plus another 50m or coming from the property sale. That's plenty to invest and grow the business. Dividends can, and should, be paid out of NPAT which at 10c per share would only be 17.5m per year from an expected profit in 2022 of around 30m. Do-able. Easily.

Only a couple of months ago SP was 2.15 from investor (Osmium) interest and a buzz surrounding the consolidation. Part of that interest and buzz was that Sky had seemed to have turned the corner, and was an investable company again. Imagine if they had declared a return to dividend not long after! You would have seen SP approaching 2.30 which you say you would take if that was a takeover offer. Point being you don't need to pray for the cavalry to come, to get the sort of price you would take. There's no volume at the moment because the Board aren't offering anything - they have gone back in their shells, but it wouldn't take much (a 10c dividend) to light the fuse again.

[mistaTea]

Sky have 35m in cash plus another 50m or coming from the property sale. That's plenty to invest and grow the business. Dividends can, and should, be paid out of NPAT which at 10c per share would only be 17.5m per year from an expected profit in 2022 of around 30m. Do-able. Easily.

Only a couple of months ago SP was 2.15 from investor (Osmium) interest and a buzz surrounding the consolidation. Part of that interest and buzz was that Sky had seemed to have turned the corner, and was an investable company again. Imagine if they had declared a return to dividend not long after! You would have seen SP approaching 2.30 which you say you would take if that was a takeover offer. Point being you don't need to pray for the cavalry to come, to get the sort of price you would take. There's no volume at the moment because the Board aren't offering anything - they have gone back in their shells, but it wouldn't take much (a 10c dividend) to light the fuse again.

Agreed 1000%.

[mistaTea]

Dividends make the world go round.

In New Zealand.

[jimdog31]

Sky have 35m in cash plus another 50m or coming from the property sale. That's plenty to invest and grow the business. Dividends can, and should, be paid out of NPAT which at 10c per share would only be 17.5m per year from an expected profit in 2022 of around 30m. Do-able. Easily.

Only a couple of months ago SP was 2.15 from investor (Osmium) interest and a buzz surrounding the consolidation. Part of that interest and buzz was that Sky had seemed to have turned the corner, and was an investable company again. Imagine if they had declared a return to dividend not long after! You would have seen SP approaching 2.30 which you say you would take if that was a takeover offer. Point being you don't need to pray for the cavalry to come, to get the sort of price you would take. There's no volume at the moment because the Board aren't offering anything - they have gone back in their shells, but it wouldn't take much (a 10c dividend) to light the fuse again.

Thats what a competent board would have done!

they just have no grasp on timing. they just dont
care about shareholders.

[winner69]

Checking in here after a week or so away

Anything exciting happened…have I missed anything important.

Share price trending dowm I notice

[mistaTea]

Face it guys. Divys are a waste of time!



Not in New Zealand.

Unfortunately, dividends are important in this country in terms of the market allocating a fair valuation.

Face it, Bowman needs to start paying us regularly and yes you will have to give a portion of that money to Cindy.

[mistaTea]

FY22 EBITDA guidance = $122.5M mid range.

CAPEX will be $55M mid range ($15M stay in business, $15M 'Enhance' initiatives' and $25M 'Growth').

I advocate that the $25M Growth projects (which will be things like Sky Mobile) should be funded through borrowing to maximise shareholder returns.

If so, then only $30M CAPEX need come from Operating cashflow.

$122.5M EBITDA - $30M CAPEX - $20M tax - $30M lease costs = $42.5M FCF.

An 85% payout ratio would be ~$36M ($18M payment every 6 months).

If they have reduced the s/o to 150M after returning proceeds from the property sale to shareholders tax free then this would be a total dividend of 24c/year over two instalments.

24c total dividend at a high yield of 8% would still be ~$3/share.

And Sky would still have ~$40M cash in the bank for a rainy day ($6M left over FCF + $35M cash already in the bank).

I repeat...it really is not rocket science. This is what BlackCrane are waiting to get to.

Revenue and GAAP earnings are expected to grow from FY23...so the payout amount should be sustainable if not grow.

If Bowman and co can give the market more certainty around dividends, and implement one by Feb (after the capital return), start using some debt to finance growth initiatives...and can get the SP well above the $2.50/share offer we would have likely ended on with PE then fantastic. He can hold his head up high again and he will have some very happy shareholders.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

FY22 EBITDA guidance = $122.5M mid range.

CAPEX will be $55M mid range ($15M stay in business, $15M 'Enhance' initiatives' and $25M 'Growth').

I advocate that the $25M Growth projects (which will be things like Sky Mobile) should be funded through borrowing to maximise shareholder returns.

If so, then only $30M CAPEX need come from Operating cashflow.

$122.5M EBITDA - $30M CAPEX - $20M tax = $72.5M FCF.

An 85% payout ratio would be ~$60M ($30M payment every 6 months).

If they have reduced the s/o to 150M after returning proceeds from the property sale to shareholders tax free then this would be a total dividend of 40c/year over two instalments.

40c total dividend at a high yield of 8% would still be ~$5/share.

And Sky would still have ~$45M cash in the bank for a rainy day ($10M left over FCF + $35M cash already in the bank).

I repeat...it really is not rocket science. This is what BlackCrane are waiting to get to.

Revenue and GAAP earnings are expected to grow from FY23...so the payout amount should be sustainable if not grow.

If Bowman and co can give the market more certainty around dividends, and implement one by Feb (after the capital return), start using some debt to finance growth initiatives...and can get the SP well above the $2.50/share offer we would have likely ended on with PE then fantastic. He can hold his head up high again and he will have some very happy shareholders.

Broadband and the new SKyBox will eat up a lot of cashflow in the coming year. Both require large upfront costs for Sky, which are recouped over the long term by monthly customer installments. Both initiatives won’t be cashflow positive for a couple of years at least, especially if they are successfully growing like we want them too.

If sky got into mobile it could be even worse of a cashflow suck depending on the business model. They definitely don’t have the billions required to install a national network and obtain the necessary spectrums, so only way they could do it is by partnering with an existing network (Spark/VodaFone/2Degrees) - which means operating as a low margin reseller - either as an MVNO with its own sky branding, or more simply just bundling one of the networks mobile offerings and skimming a percentage (which probably is the best option).

[jimdog31]

Broadband and the new SKyBox will eat up a lot of cashflow in the coming year. Both require large upfront costs for Sky, which are recouped over the long term by monthly customer installments. Both initiatives won’t be cashflow positive for a couple of years at least, especially if they are successfully growing like we want them too.

If sky got into mobile it could be even worse of a cashflow suck depending on the business model. They definitely don’t have the billions required to install a national network and obtain the necessary spectrums, so only way they could do it is by partnering with an existing network (Spark/VodaFone/2Degrees) - which means operating as a low margin reseller - either as an MVNO with its own sky branding, or more simply just bundling one of the networks mobile offerings and skimming a percentage (which probably is the best option).

Operating as a low margin reseller, when you already have a fixed cost base can actually be cashflow accretive... I think their secret sauce would be adding mobile AND power and being the one stop utility shop.

Theyve got a massive audience they can market these bundles too. And then they are a much more attractive acquisition target.

My issue is that this is the best way forward for SKY, but I just doubt we have the team to execute this. They cant even sell a property in the Middle of a hot market in Auckland?

Anyone else feel me on this?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Operating as a low margin reseller, when you already have a fixed cost base can actually be cashflow accretive... I think their secret sauce would be adding mobile AND power and being the one stop utility shop.

Theyve got a massive audience they can market these bundles too. And then they are a much more attractive acquisition target.

My issue is that this is the best way forward for SKY, but I just doubt we have the team to execute this. They cant even sell a property in the Middle of a hot market in Auckland?

Anyone else feel me on this?

i agree the reseller/bundler is definitley the best approach for mobile. Would be open to them doing the same with power as well.

Actually your mention of its audience/customer base I think is one place they haven’t promoted at all well to investors. SkyBox customers i suspect are a rather high discretionary spending audience. It’s perhaps the only good thing as a result of the “cord-cutter” curse - the customers you do have left may well be described as on average wealthier as they don’t feel the need to “cut the cord” (cancel a high cost pay tv subscription) to save money.

The one mention in the investor day presentation is the slide below, which mentions “high income”. But it then goes on to talk about the need to diversify the audience in order to grow - when an alternate (and perhaps parallel) strategy not mentioned would be to massively milk the existing “high income” customer base for all you can with ancillary services. Now perhaps this is actually the underlying strategy (as broadband launch makes clear) but I get the impression they are a bit embarrassed to say it loud and proud that they have a rich customer base and are going to try and generate as much money as possible from them.

13209

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just trying to think, aside from Mobile & Power, what other 3rd party services could sky bundle to rich not-that-tech-savvy customer base that they could skim a commission on?

Spitballing here, feel free to add your own ideas:

- Broadband obviously a key example, but also the new skybox which will enable an easier commission for 3rd party services (like the current disney+ deal)
- The already discussed Mobile & Power
- I’ll include the SkyGlass TV here for MistaTeas benefit, which fits with this strategy I now admit, but is a hefty upfront cashflow suck.
- data backup and virus protection as a broadband add-on
- Sports betting and/or fantasy sport competitions
- Insurance products
- Branded credit card with “Sky rewards”
- Domestic Travel bookings (“make sure your stay has SkyTV!”)
- a “buyers club” discounted deals
- ???

[mistaTea]

Broadband and the new SKyBox will eat up a lot of cashflow in the coming year. Both require large upfront costs for Sky, which are recouped over the long term by monthly customer installments.



Sure, but the bulk of that upfront cost has already been incurred and paid for. For Broadband there would have been a chunk of cash spent on upgrading their CRM system to onboard and maintain customer accounts. Integrate with Vocus NZ etc.

The costs of new staff to service broadband as well as sending out modems etc comes out of the margin. So the first year margin is non existent and then starts to pay its way after the first year probably (assuming we hold onto the customer).

The STB needs more spend, but a good chunk of the CAPEX spend on that has already happened.

And don't forget...with my projections I am working back from EBITDA and using the total CAPEX figures they have provided in their guidance.

So all of the spend on broadband and the new STB are taken into account with those numbers.

We should absolutely get a payout of $60M next year after they do a capital return or share buyback.

And with regards to Sky Mobile...nothing announced yet but I think it is a natural progression for Sky and is inevitable. Obviously we would not build our own mobile network - we would get a wholesale deal with Spark, Vodafone or 2D.

We probably only need around $15M for an initative like that to get the CRM tools etc ready to rock and roll for those customers.

They project a total spend of $25M for all growth initatives (of which Sky Mobile could be one of those initatives). I say negotiate reasonable lending terms with the banks and borrow that money.

Time to put the foot on the gas for things that are going to raise the market cap of Sky. That has to be a CR/buyback followed by a generous dividend policy.

[mistaTea]

Just trying to think, aside from Mobile & Power, what other 3rd party services could sky bundle to rich not-that-tech-savvy customer base that they could skim a commission on?

Spitballing here, feel free to add your own ideas:

- Broadband obviously a key example, but also the new skybox which will enable an easier commission for 3rd party services (like the current disney+ deal)
- The already discussed Mobile & Power
- I’ll include the SkyGlass TV here for MistaTeas benefit, which fits with this strategy I now admit, but is a hefty upfront cashflow suck.
- data backup and virus protection as a broadband add-on
- Sports betting and/or fantasy sport competitions
- Insurance products
- Branded credit card with “Sky rewards”
- Domestic Travel bookings (“make sure your stay has SkyTV!”)
- a “buyers club” discounted deals
- ???

Get wholesale deals with:



NETFLIX
AMAZON (Prime plus Kindle)
YOUTUBE
Spotify


That way we can offer the popular 3rd Party services for cheaper if they add them as part of a Sky bundle.

Sky's revenues (and then eventually bottom line earnings) could absolutely Sky rocket if they are successful in their plan to become the ultimate aggregator.

[jimdog31]

Get wholesale deals with:



NETFLIX
AMAZON (Prime plus Kindle)
YOUTUBE
Spotify


That way we can offer the popular 3rd Party services for cheaper if they add them as part of a Sky bundle.

Sky's revenues (and then eventually bottom line earnings) could absolutely Sky rocket if they are successful in their plan to become the ultimate aggregator.

AND, lets change the name?!!

Sky is dead.....

[mistaTea]

I am looking forward to my tax free capital return next year of $2/share ($50M property sale). I should get $78.5K.

Then in Feb distribute the first $30M of the $60M dividend. S/o will have been reduced to 150M...so that is 20c/share.

That will be another $47K for me before tax. I think they have a bunch of imputation credits they need to use, so my tax liability shouldn't be too bad.

So between now and March (divvy pay day), Sky should distribute $125.7K to me in total.

And then there will be a large capital appreciation to for my shares.

All they need to do is borrow a modest amount of money and execute the mistaTea plan and we can all get paid and move forward as happier shareholders.

Who's with me?!

[peat]

AND, lets change the name?!!

Sky is dead.....

Get rid of Work and Television

SKYNET

13210

[Rustycage]

Get rid of Work and Television

SKYNET

13210

APPROVE, as a SKT share/bagholder

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/vodafone-nz-exploring-options-mobile-towers-says-infratil-s-boyes

This article is about Vodafone releasing capital by selling its mobile towers and moving to a shared infrastructure model...

Yet half the article talks about dividends.

That is what kiwis want. A steady stream of dividends...

[Alpha]

Sorry team I am now SKY gone. It has been a wild ride this one and managed to save my self by DCA and the recent SP rise. I am sure something is a cooking but I can no longer it. The final straw for me was the Pooman. He has to go!

[jimdog31]

Sorry team I am now SKY gone. It has been a wild ride this one and managed to save my self by DCA and the recent SP rise. I am sure something is a cooking but I can no longer it. The final straw for me was the Pooman. He has to go!

Good on ya mate. unfortunately if OGG, Mista and I leave the share price will collapse!

[mistaTea]

Good on ya mate. unfortunately if OGG, Mista and I leave the share price will collapse!

Selling schmelling! I am still BUYING!

Don't let Pooman scare you off.

He will resign soon enough.

The Big instos are the ones who will utimately determine what happens with Sky.

And they will want the capital return and dividend. They will also be wondering why we have zero debt and are trying to fund all projects from operating cashflow.

And they also know that once the divvys return, Sky will double if not triple in value. Especially if they start financing some of the projects through debt which will allow for more generous shareholder payouts.

If they execute the mistaTea Plan all will be forgiven with Bowman. When I am next in the UK I would make a point of looking him up and buying him a beer.

[mistaTea]

Sorry team I am now SKY gone. It has been a wild ride this one and managed to save my self by DCA and the recent SP rise. I am sure something is a cooking but I can no longer it. The final straw for me was the Pooman. He has to go!

https://c.tenor.com/TxxK-usCnQAAAAAC/star-wars-chosen-one.gif

[LoungeLizzard]

Sorry team I am now SKY gone. It has been a wild ride this one and managed to save my self by DCA and the recent SP rise. I am sure something is a cooking but I can no longer it. The final straw for me was the Pooman. He has to go!

Can't say I blame you. I'm sitting on a modest 20k gain so I can afford to roll with it a bit longer. But if they don't offer something tangible to shareholders by February, I'll be off as well. The property sale must surely be a done deal by then, and what they do with the funds will be the litmus test of whether the Board are confident enough in the business to start paying a return to shareholders (ie the owners of the business), or whether they are just going to keep harping on about investing for the future. As far as I'm concerned, the future is NOW!

[Alpha]

A bit part of this was the opportunity cost of holding. I’ve watched other stocks fly sky high and mean while sky doesn’t. I’ve come out with a profit so that’s what matters to me. I’ve moved it into another asx stock that’s gone up 10%. More risk with that spec stock but a bit like crypto will have big swings. I guess I’m more of a trader now. You all will prob have the last laugh and feb is not far away so I may be back

[nztx]

This hawk has been flying in the thermals higher in Sky for while now

More lucrative multibag pickings elsewhere, while NZX mostly drifts in places lower :)

There are times when sacrificing a few small scraps biffed out in by Co's in troubled times
can be better option .. chasing a larger trove elsewhere in the distance ;)

[mistaTea]

FY22 EBITDA guidance = $122.5M mid range.

CAPEX will be $55M mid range ($15M stay in business, $15M 'Enhance' initiatives' and $25M 'Growth').

I advocate that the $25M Growth projects (which will be things like Sky Mobile) should be funded through borrowing to maximise shareholder returns.

If so, then only $30M CAPEX need come from Operating cashflow.

$122.5M EBITDA - $30M CAPEX - $20M tax - $30M lease costs = $42.5M FCF.

An 85% payout ratio would be ~$36M ($18M payment every 6 months).

If they have reduced the s/o to 150M after returning proceeds from the property sale to shareholders tax free then this would be a total dividend of 24c/year over two instalments.

24c total dividend at a high yield of 8% would still be ~$3/share.

And Sky would still have ~$40M cash in the bank for a rainy day ($6M left over FCF + $35M cash already in the bank).

I repeat...it really is not rocket science. This is what BlackCrane are waiting to get to.

Revenue and GAAP earnings are expected to grow from FY23...so the payout amount should be sustainable if not grow.

If Bowman and co can give the market more certainty around dividends, and implement one by Feb (after the capital return), start using some debt to finance growth initiatives...and can get the SP well above the $2.50/share offer we would have likely ended on with PE then fantastic. He can hold his head up high again and he will have some very happy shareholders.

Realised I blundered with this earlier post by not including the lease costs under IFRS16.

I was wondering why the cashflow was suddenly higher than my assumptions when I looked at the release of the financials!

Have updated accordingly.

But the point remains - Sky need to reinstate a meaningful dividend to drive up the valuation of the business.

There are only two ways they can do this.

Either they return all capital to shareholders from the campus sale and fund the growth projects with some debt.

Or they retain the $25M for the growth projects from the campus sale and return a smaller amount to shareholders.

I suspect they will pick the latter to keep the balance sheet clean.

So they probably only end up doing a modest share buyback of $25M-$30M maybe. Or a tax free capital return by destroying 25M shares and paying out $1/share.

Either way, it will be the dividend that drives this valuation sky high.

I don’t really like dividends because of tax etc, but Sky has taught me that dividends are critical in NZ. How much underlying cashflow the business continues to generate is not rewarded at all unless a good chunk of it is paid out like regular coupons.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sky announces they have retained the rights to the a-league. Not a major critical deal, but personally for me its one of the few reasons I still have SkySport.

[Topagent]

I also have sky for the a-league mainly

[airedale]

This will push it below $1.80 then.


Even at $1.80 there are still a lot of shareholders still sitting on a 50% gain after buying in at 12 cents {$ 1.20} about 16 months ago.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Even at $1.80 there are still a lot of shareholders still sitting on a 50% gain after buying in at 12 cents {$ 1.20} about 16 months ago.

most of the shares bought at 12c went to existing shareholders during the capital raise, most of whom remain far underwater on their SKT holdings.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Such winning…

13214

[RTM]

Even at $1.80 there are still a lot of shareholders still sitting on a 50% gain after buying in at 12 cents {$ 1.20} about 16 months ago.

Yep...you're right. 13.9c for me. Not at all concerned about day to day fluctuations.

[mistaTea]

Going, going, GONE

https://raywhite.co.nz/auckland/auckland-city/herne-bay/PON25316/

Man, he took like zero time to sell his own property.

But selling a 40K sqm commercial propery a hop, skip and a jump from the CBD?

That takes over 6 months it seems.

[Balance]

Man, he took like zero time to sell his own property.

But selling a 40K sqm commercial propery a hop, skip and a jump from the CBD?

That takes over 6 months it seems.

Sp looks like heading to $1.60 by Christmas.

Enjoy the ride.

[mistaTea]

A 30% decline from the takeover offer

https://i.imgur.com/fxYyFQo.jpg

If we get to Feb and they still haven't sold the property and/or they still refuse to declare a meaningful divvy that will shift the SP despite being flush with cash...we riot.

[Balance]

A 30% decline from the takeover offer

https://i.imgur.com/fxYyFQo.jpg

Forget takeover - the game is over.

Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?

So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?


If we get to Feb and they still haven't sold the property and/or they still refuse to declare a meaningful divvy that will shift the SP despite being flush with cash...we riot.



Hear the sp crashing?

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/RbhdjPG.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/I5mfPLL.gif


It's as I pointed out earlier...Bowman and the rest of the Board have set the bar as to what they need to get the SP above now.

As soon as they rejected the opening bid of 23cps (which would have likely ended up 25cps+ if they actually tried to negotiate...) the Board were saying that they are highly confident, based on their insider knowlege, that Sky is worth much more than that.

If they are right, then the patient should be rewarded soon. The longer it takes for them to increase the quoted value of the business, the higher they need to get that quoted value to justify the rejection of the takeover offer.

So far, all we see is the usual - a sliding SP.

So the Board need to pull out something pretty big between now and the HY results to justify their decision in June.

I am confident that they can do a reasonable capital return with a generous dividend because they will have plenty of cash.

If they keep $25M from the property sale to fund the growth projects there will be plenty of money from operating cashflows to distribute to shareholders over the coming years.

But even though they can do it...will they do it?

If they play it ultra conservative then the SP may stay sub $2.30.

[LoungeLizzard]

[QUOTE=Balance;924957]Forget takeover - the game is over.

Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?

So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?


Hear the sp crashing?

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:

Nah, I for one, don't buy into the idea that no return to shareholders is likely or desirable. It's already been shown by various posters, including myself, that SKY have plenty of headroom to invest in the business and commence dividends. The two aren't mutually exclusive. If they remain tone deaf to investors then they risk a collapse in share price as both retail investors and institutions relinquish their positions. I could buy into the growth strategy if SKY and this Board had demonstrated an abilty to deliver. Which of course they haven't. Which is why making a some sort of return to shareholders from the considerable funds that they will have available to them is so vital to restoring investor confidence. Nothing demonstrates more clearly that the business is solid than paying a dividend.

[Baa_Baa]

I tend to agree with you that various deals are being worked out in the background - matter of getting the property deal done first & everything will fall into place fast after that.

Shareholders will wake up one morning and find it’s all happening.

Any day now imo.

$2.50 to $2.75 is my pick of where SKT settles at when all the deals are done.

CEO did not buy on market at $1.80 for a 10% upside - that’s for sure!

Putting my money where my mouth is. :scared:


Ironically, the delay in sale of the property could have worked very well in SKT's favor.

Development land prices in Auckland have gone berserk since the joint announcement by Labour & National about further intensification & housing density rules for the main centres.

Like I wrote before, it's a matter of time - not if but when the property deal is done.

Then, everything being worked on in the background will happen in a rush.

Sp is where it is because the sp momentum has faltered and the traders are bailing out - not because the deals being worked on have dissipated.


Sp looks like heading to $1.60 by Christmas.

Enjoy the ride.

So you bought somewhere between $1.81 and $1.84 on 10 Nov, confident that the property sale was happening "any day now", then next thing "it's a matter of time", and now it's "$1.60 by Christmas".

That's not very encouraging Balance, do you have some insights as to the state of the property sale that has given you pause for thought?

[mistaTea]

Looks like I made “dem gainz” on the 5K shares I bought today @$1.80.

[Balance]

So you bought somewhere between $1.81 and $1.84 on 10 Nov, confident that the property sale was happening "any day now", then next thing "it's a matter of time", and now it's "$1.60 by Christmas".

That's not very encouraging Balance, do you have some insights as to the state of the property sale that has given you pause for thought?

See the question marks I put after the sentences in my post?


Forget takeover - the game is over.

Sky is going to be operated for capital growth - that's clear based upon the collective thoughts and comments on this thread, right?

So no takeover, no dividends and no likelihood of a change in strategy?





Hear the sp crashing?

TIMBERRRRRRRRRRRR :eek2:

I am simply pointing out the scenario as painted by the collective comments on this thread.

And taking the p... out of a couple of posters who I believe have sold out and are now attempting to ramp the sp ever lower.

Am happy for the sp in the short term to drift lower - does not faze me one iota and looking forward to adding a few more before the inevitable property sale (& other deals being worked on in the background) occur.

All good. :t_up:

[mistaTea]

See the question marks I put after the sentences in my post?



I am simply pointing out the scenario as painted by the collective comments on this thread.

And taking the p... out of a couple of posters who I believe have sold out and are now attempting to ramp the sp ever lower.

Am happy for the sp in the short term to drift lower - does not faze me one iota and looking forward to adding a few more before the inevitable property sale (& other deals being worked on in the background) occur.

All good. :t_up:

Well I now own 0.16% of the business.

Only another 19.83% to go before I hit the hostile takeover threshold and will need to stop :D

[Balance]

Well I now own 0.16% of the business.

Only another 19.83% to go before I hit the hostile takeover threshold and will need to stop :D

You will be right, mistaTea.

Traders will trade and you can tell them by the way they have gone from exuberant 3 months ago to 'despondent' today.

Watch out for them.

[mistaTea]

You will be right, mistaTea.

Traders will trade and you can tell them by the way they have gone from exuberant 3 months ago to 'despondent' today.

Watch out for them.

For sure.

And the Board/Management have done some things that have really disappointed. Outrageous actions really, and I do think Bowman will have to sling his hook by the HY results.

But now is not the time to bail imo if you have been holding a a while.

We have gone through the real crappy part of the turnaround...it is natural for patience to wear thin at this stage, but we are about to get tens of millions of dollars from the campus sale, we have $35M cash in the bank and are adding to that pile every month. Even if we fully funded ALL capex requirements this financial year from operating cashflow, we would still be adding ~$1.5M/month to our cash balance.

They will almost certainly earmark $25M from the campus sale for the growth projects instead of taking on debt to fund it. I do think we need to start usng debt in future, but perhaps just using some money from the property sale is the more prudent thing to do for now. Until we have further gains from the strategy execution anyway.
That means a more modest buyback/capital return, but it also means that the cash balance from operations grows at something closer to $3.5M/month.

Then by the Feb results, the cash balance would have grown by ~20M since the annual results. Even if they wanted to keep the $35M already sitting there in case other opportunities present next year, they could pay 75% of HY FCF generated = $15M.

If we assume that at the FY results they pay at least another $15M (maybe even $20M) then a total payment of $30M would be a great result for the owners of the business. Even a yield of 6% would be a market cap of $500M ($2.85/share).

I think the long suffering shareholders would be a lot happier with the Board (and possibly even forgive previous transgressions!) if they did something like this.

But with the vague statements we have had to endure for the last year or so, there really is no telling which way they will go.

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/AZcv07T.jpg


Sky at 2.5x multiple but Foxtel at 6x because it has better streaming assets?

Seriously, WTF am I reading!


https://i.imgur.com/mZbTwQy.gif

Don’t worry mate!

Bowman’s got us!

Buyback and big divvy next year is going to give us that $4/share!

[mistaTea]

I did a final Sky Nation survey for the new STB prior to release why Sky make the ‘finishing touches’.

One of the questions asked whether or not I would prefer to pay a $199 one-off fee to own the box or pay $10/month for as long as I am a customer.

I would be included to just pay the two hundred bucks and be done with it. Works out cheaper if you will be a customer for longer than 20 months.

But what does everyone think else think? Most people will probably just pay the $10 rental fee?

Crazy that the MYSKY fee should be more than the fee for the new STB!

[Jay]

Had the survey too Mr T
Did the same, been a customer for a long time, don't see me changing in the next 2 years or so- especially with this new STB, therefore would pay the $199 up front

[jimdog31]

Oh look at that NZME doing a buyback. Their market cap will be more than SkT soon.

Track how NZME has managed their capital effectively over the last 12 months to see market value appreciation.

Pooman, seriously sort it out, or go join the far queue.

[mistaTea]

Oh look at that NZME doing a buyback. Their market cap will be more than SkT soon.

Track how NZME has managed their capital effectively over the last 12 months to see market value appreciation.

Pooman, seriously sort it out, or go join the far queue.

Absolutely agree, if Sky are going to do a buyback with some of the property sale funds I would expect them to do exactly the same as NZME.

On market buyback, none of this 'tender offer' bs. We need a meaningful amount of shares removed from the register and then back it all up with a strong dividend.

Don't f*ck this up Pooman. What needs to happen for Sky really is not rocket science.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Bloody frustrating stock for sure, but if you've held this long there's no point sweating over a few more months. Happy to keep holding my long term position and may add to it around these levels. Just glad I didn't re-add the swing position I sold around $2.20 at $2.00!!!

This would be one of my highest conviction stocks for decent gains on the NZX within the next 6 months. Unless we are all completely missing something then the risk/reward is extremely attractive.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sky said it is targeting 200,000 of the new box installs by 2024.

At $200 cost per box, that is $40 million of capital used over less than 3 years. Be better for immediate cashflow if people paid $200 upfront, but much better for longer term cashflow/earnings if people paid $10 a month rental.

I would guess the new boxes are actually cheaper than the mysky boxes, even with the big leap in technology.

[mistaTea]

S

I would guess the new boxes are actually cheaper than the mysky boxes, even with the big leap in technology.

Possibly.

But MYSKY boxes don't cost Sky very much these days anyway. DVR systems are dirty cheap and Sky get them wholesale.

They def cost a lot less than the $180/year Sky charge customers year in and year out for the 'privilege'!

And I bet you the MYSKY boxes break less often than the new Android boxes will.

[snigmac]

Does anyone have an update on whether Sky is being shorted still? Would be interesting to see the short reactions if Sky completes a share buyback :) with sale of property funds.

[jimdog31]

13223
Does anyone have an update on whether Sky is being shorted still? Would be interesting to see the short reactions if Sky completes a share buyback :) with sale of property funds.

jump from 20,000 to 70,000 a few days ago

[mistaTea]

NETFFLIX must be struggling.

Most of the notifications I seem to get from them at the moment are to "rewatch my favorites".

Not much going on in terms of great new content for me to watch right now.

But I do love their app!

[mistaTea]

Imagine a Foxtel/Sky merger



Stop giving me wood mate.

[mistaTea]

Reverse merger bro!

Foxtel = AUD $2.5B
Sky NZ = AUD $.5B

Issue 831m shares
Total shares 1B
Share price = AUD $3
Entity = AUD $3B

Sky shareholders = 16.6%
Telstra owns = 29.15%
Newscorp = 54.45%

https://i.imgur.com/IUB28Az.jpg

I would be open to that.

But I don't think Telsta and News Corp want that.

They want to list Foxtel soon and get paid...I doubt they want to own a smaller percentage of a bigger business.

If anything were to happen...most likely course of events is Foxtel IPO...then some time after that Foxtel buy SNT by issuing Sky shareholders Foxtel shares.

So let's hope Pooman has sorted it out by then so that the SNT SP is closer to fair value.

[mistaTea]

Could be a partial sell down or raise.

Newscorp could drop to 40% and Telstra to 20%. Therefore 25% = new investors.

2 year escrow for remaining Newsorp and Telstra shares. They can then sell down again after 2 years.

This could work out better for them. They can get some cash and can pay down debt. They can also benefit from any upside over next 2 years.

They would also benefit from the synergies as 2 years from now all the costs would be worked out. Stock would likely go up in value. Hence Newscorp and Tesltra can make even more money.

WIN WIN BRO!!
Ok I’m sold!

Ring Patrick and get the deal worked out

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NETFFLIX must be struggling.

Most of the notifications I seem to get from them at the moment are to "rewatch my favorites".

Not much going on in terms of great new content for me to watch right now.

But I do love their app!

They have doubled in value since start of pandemic - now at all time high of $300 Billion market cap - and added a net 4.4 million new subscribers last quarter alone, while implementing price increases.

[jimdog31]

Already on to it bro!

https://i.imgur.com/StN5c09.jpg

I'm a real stickler for what language or words get used to describe situation's.....

"our friends" over at foxtel is one of those situations!

It was a calculated comment IMHO.

[mistaTea]

"our friends" over at foxtel

I will upgrade them to "bl00dy good mates" if they merge with us at a valuation of $500M.

[jimdog31]

I will upgrade them to "bl00dy good mates" if they merge with us at a valuation of $500M.

Hey jonesy, give us a hand with a job saturday?

Mate, your dreaming!!

Pretty much sums up how the convo would have went between Sky & foxtel

[mistaTea]

Hey jonesy, give us a hand with a job saturday?

Mate, your dreaming!!

Pretty much sums up how the convo would have went between Sky & foxtel

A Foxtel merger would be the ultimate triumph (if done on reasonable terms).

We would be in such a strong position for future content rights negotiations.

Spark Sport would fold over night.

The business would generate massive FCF, giving it plenty of firepower to invest and pay shareholders.

I am 100% sold on the idea. But I think it will be a timing thing.

I do not see them doing a complicated deal where SNT does a reverse takeover, and some of the shares are offered to new instos that inject money into the business to pay debt.

It will be the simple route.

Foxtel IPO and get as much $$$ as they can. Telstra and Newscorp will sell down as part of this but keep a meaningful stake.

Then if the Foxtel-SNT merger still makes sense: execute. Hopefully Sky has a market cap of $500M+ by then depending on what Bowman does.

[jimdog31]

A Foxtel merger would be the ultimate triumph (if done on reasonable terms).

We would be is such a strong position for future content rights negotiations.

Spark Sport would fold over night.

The business would generate massive FCF, giving it plenty of firepower to invest and pay shareholders.

I am 100% sold on the idea. But I think it will be a timing thing.

I do not see them doing a complicated deal where SNT does a reverse takeover, and some of the shares are offered to new instos that inject money into the business to pay debt.

It will be the simple route.

Foxtel IPO and get as much $$$ as they can. Telstra and Newscorp will sell down as part of this but keep a meaningful stake.

Then if the Foxtel-SNT merger still makes sense: execute. Hopefully Sky has a market cap of $500M+ by then depending on what Bowman does.

I'm with you Mista, Lets hope they want us as much as we need them.

[mistaTea]

I'm not even thinking about this actually happening.

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ColorfulEthicalCats-max-1mb.gif

[mistaTea]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xv5iHT1K7Hg

Listening to this for 7 mins confirms to me that Sky and Foxtel ARE EXACTLY THE SAME!!

I don't know who that muppet is over at Morgan Stanley saying Foxtel should be on a 6x multiple and Sky NZ on a 2.5x. I mean Jesus Christ, what kind of bull sh*t is that!!! It's the exact same business model, products and services. A legit f*cking clone. You could swap the businesses and nobody would know the difference.

Either Foxtel is only worth $600m or Sky is worth $780m. They can't both be right.

I would put both Foxtel and Sky on a 4x multiple with the upside of a 6x multiple if they were being taken over by Comcast or if they did a merger together.

Sky therefore = $500m today, and Foxtel = $1.8B

I am just relieved that you have finally come to this realisation too and taken the news so…well…

[mistaTea]

None of this sh*t will happen bro!


Come on mate! You’ve been fapping all day!

Stay strong.

Good things are near.

[jimdog31]

far out that could easily have been the sky presentation!! um, lets just merge and we can have 1 ceo and marketing team to do the investor presentations. would save a few mill.

[mistaTea]

far out that could easily have been the sky presentation!! um, lets just merge and we can have 1 ceo and marketing team to do the investor presentations. would save a few mill.

And a brand new Board…

[jimdog31]

And a brand new Board…

and minus 3 buildings?

[mistaTea]

I mean what kind of a Board with all the cash on hand that they have…plus an imminent property sale…

Won’t even give the market any certainty that they intend to do a buyback and then resume dividends from Feb?

Sure, add in all the caveats etc! OBVIOUSLY you wouldn’t be able to pay the divvy if things deteriorated between now and Feb…

But if you were clear with the market that this is what you intend to do, then Mr Market would start pricing those dividends in on the basis that they are more likely to get paid than not.

Christ it just breaks your heart.

If NZME can declare a buyback in principle…what’s going on with us?

[mistaTea]

and minus 3 buildings?

It will all be run from Aussie. We won’t need any physical assets here.

[Monarch]

Has Joan been any use in explaining what is going on? Or are her lips sealed?

[nztx]

Has Joan been any use in explaining what is going on? Or are her lips sealed?

but as most suspect, our good friend Ogg may only have eyes for the CEO lady ;)

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/nzme-shares-rally-on-share-buyback-plans/NDJ3N273VCRIHMJLUTDCEOCI5M/

By signalling a clear intent, the market lifted the value of the business 6% without even blinking.

Sky can't declare an intention for the buyback until they sell the property (which is taking for ever).

But one would hope they would follow the same path as NZME once they have.

In a way, maybe them not declaring a clear intention for a dividend either is good for long term holders. If they go the on-market buyback route then having a SP that is as low as possible is actually favourable in terms of them being able to buy back the maximum number of shares.

But I am really scraping the bottom of the barrel now to try and give the benfit of the doubt...

[THEONE]

Surely the Property sale price would have to be a very good price. Having to wait so long.

I wonder if Osmium was pushing NZME for buybacks behind the scenes.

Surely they want to do something similar to SKY ? or maybe they want SKY to do a NZME takeover?

Something is brewing

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/232484/#comments

AlmostConfused sends a warning shot to the SKT Directors...

[mistaTea]

2016 article:

https://i.imgur.com/XXfjYU4.jpg

Morgan Stanley in 2016 said Foxtel was worth $5 Billion

Morgan Stanley today value Foxtel at $2.5 Billion

Decline of only half.

Sky in 2016 worth $2B

Today Sky worth only $300m.

https://i.imgur.com/mZbTwQy.gif

Yep.

And Sky has zero debt while Foxtel has debt up to the eye balls...

Go figure.

[jimdog31]

NZME $20m in debt but does buy back.

Sky $30m in cash inflating away in zero interest bank account

https://i.imgur.com/mZbTwQy.gif

Wouldnt mind a merger with NZME, especially if we kept their board and ditched ours?

[mistaTea]

Wouldnt mind a merger with NZME, especially if we kept their board and ditched ours?

Both businesses have some similar characteristics…

Not as good as a Foxtel merger, but not the craziest of ideas either.

Get into TV, newspapers and radio. A full blown media play for NZ, backed up with wholesale deals for broadband and eventually Mobile.

[jimdog31]

Both businesses have some similar characteristics…

Not as good as a Foxtel merger, but not the craziest of ideas either.

Get into TV, newspapers and radio. A full blown media play for NZ, backed up with wholesale deals for broadband and eventually Mobile.

Id take anything other than the status quo! the market agrees

[mistaTea]

Sky is a stinky turd nobody wants!

Great BUY thesis mate!

[mistaTea]

I'm UP, so seems to work for me.

Ok.

Let’s talk about who else might want a piece of this ‘stinky turd’ then…

[mistaTea]

What's your average now bro? Below 26?

$2.58 BABY!

WHOOOOO!!! (https://c.tenor.com/vJY--Pd2LQgAAAAM/pumped-woooo.gif)

[THEONE]

Ok.

Let’s talk about who else might want a piece of this ‘stinky turd’ then…

They could merge with QEX logistics..They have synergies in destroying shareholder value and a distain for shareholders

[Almost-confused]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/232484/#comments

AlmostConfused sends a warning shot to the SKT Directors...

Couldn't resist

[mistaTea]

Couldn't resist

In the comments section Paul Hughes describes an alternative to on market buyback.

It’s the same alternative that I propose Sky should do.

It is quicker than a buyback and puts money in the pockets of shareholders tax free while also achieving the goal of reducing shares outstanding.

[mistaTea]

Grabbed a few more shares for my son today.

He now has ~2,400 shares.

Is he going to hit pay dirt soon with Sky and have a big chunk of his tertiary fees paid for by the age of 2?

[mistaTea]

NZME release digital strategy: https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383041

They have declared a 3c divvy for the HY which is ~$6M.

Their dividend guidance (take note Sky! You can actually provide guidance on these things!) is a total of $8M-$14M. I think they will probably end up doing another 3c divvy at the FY, taking the total divvy to around $12M.

Anyway, NZME (a business that is much smaller than Sky in terms of Earning Power) now has a market cap of $263M - only $53M less than Sky TV!!

Why would this be? Well they are generating tangible returns for their shareholders after paying down debt and investing in their paltforms. Investors have confidence in the management and Board to the extent that the quoted value of NZME is based on a 3.133% yield.

3.133% of 263M is ~$8M! So the market is being conservative with NZME and have valued it on the assumption it meets the lower end of dividend guidance! And it still has a healthy market cap relative to Sky.

That being the case, if Sky gave guidance to only pay $20M in total dividends next year that should push the market cap over $600M while still retaining loads of cash for Sky to do other things.

[mistaTea]

They know how to make a presentation look good, with Rocket ships and shet!!

https://i.imgur.com/x8bRe1q.jpg

All I know is that the SP for NZME is up 53% since they declared a dividend. And that 53% increase is based on the lower end guidance of total divvy.

If the same happened for Sky our SP would be $485M ($2.77/share).

And we can't even entertain the possibility of merging with a business like NZME while our shares are valued so low. As it stands currently a merger would be a great deal for NZME shareholders but a terrible deal for Sky shareholders.

Let us hope Pooman and the rest of the Board are watching closely and learning how it is done.

[RTM]

Take a look at the Turners thread and consider where they were a couple of years ago.
That is what SKY need to do. Get some runs on the board.
And then the shareprice should look after itself.
Eventually.

[mistaTea]

You should sell your Sky shares and buy Foxtel bro!!

Foxtel is innovative and moving quickly to address the changes in the market place.

Sky NZ is slow!!!

Foxtel announces launch of FoxTest

https://www.adnews.com.au/news/media-agencies-on-foxtel-s-2022-showcase-content-and-ad-experimentation

https://www.mediaweek.com.au/foxtel-announces-launch-of-foxtest-ad-experimentation-platform/

“They are doing a great job moving from a subscription to streaming model.

“Positioning themselves as a house of brands and transforming to a streaming company, Foxtel is moving away from legacy perceptions and priming for success.

“The upcoming innovations in Foxtel’s ad deployment capabilities are interesting, with potential new formats, and ease of cross platform buying and campaign delivery. Advertisers will welcome these developments and the $3m commitment to campaign effectiveness and innovation via Foxtest will improve trial of their platform, and lead to some strong innovation outcomes.”

“It’s clear Foxtel is going through a period of rapid change. They have worked very hard to strike a balance between audience needs and advertiser needs, and it shows.
“Their key strength is they are one of the few dual revenue businesses (advertising and subscription revenue) and that means they can be nimble and flexible.

“Foxtel focused on the transformation their business is undergoing; from a subscription TV business to subscription streaming video business. It’s a unique proposition with a future-focussed ambition to serve every ad digitally and drive innovation.

“At the core of this is building a business that is customer focused and IP led, with a clear ambition of becoming Australia’s most dynamic streaming company. To achieve this, Foxtel believes it needs to move away from being a single group TV brand to become an offering of genre lead streaming services.




Yeah well Sky are doing most of that, we are just a year behind them. So I look forward to the 6x EBITDA multiple in 2022!

[mistaTea]

I reckon the best play is for Foxtel and Sky to merge but also for Vocus/2 Degrees to take a 20% stake in the new merged business!!!

You would then have Telstra as the telco in Aussie and then Vocus/2 Degrees as the NZ telco.

This would form a strong Tran-Tasman entity with large capital behind it to invest in sporting deals and secure overseas content.

Many options!

All up from here baby!

Sit tight.

[mistaTea]

You should buy some Threat Protect bro! Can get in at .004 now. That's lower than PK average!!!

But I am still High on Sky mate.

[Meh]

I'm losing any hope in this share... Starting to think we should put a puppy in charge? Imagine the positive press and maybe share gains from the attention! At least puppies are loyal and can't fly off to the UK! If it gets called a dog, it might as well truely identify as one.

[mistaTea]

Just got an email saying they are introducing Sky Rewards to start treating their loyal customers.

Will give options like free channels, free MySky and also sports and entertainment experiences.

Good move.

[winner69]

Mistatea …you are needed over on the MHJ thread …what’s the profile of Railto watchers

[mistaTea]

Jimdog and I were chatting the other day, and one of the things we discussed was the aggressive discounting Sky does to reduce churn.

This has always been an issue for Sky since forever...they did stop the practice for a while under John Fellet because it just upset loyal customers who don't complain, while only retaining marginal customers for a little longer.

Anyway, I think the new Sky Rewards is a great way forward for Sky.

https://www.sky.co.nz/skyrewards

If they get the rewards right (the longer you stay, the larger the rewards) then they won't need to offer big discounts anymore to those who call to cancel their sub.

I have just come up 6 months with my STB sub, so should start being offered loyalty rewards soon.

[Quantitative Easing]

Jimdog and I were chatting the other day, and one of the things we discussed was the aggressive discounting Sky does to reduce churn.

This has always been an issue for Sky since forever...they did stop the practice for a while under John Fellet because it just upset loyal customers who don't complain, while only retaining marginal customers for a little longer.

Anyway, I think the new Sky Rewards is a great way forward for Sky.

https://www.sky.co.nz/skyrewards

If they get the rewards right (the longer you stay, the larger the rewards) then they won't need to offer big discounts anymore to those who call to cancel their sub.

I have just come up 6 months with my STB sub, so should start being offered loyalty rewards soon.

Hasn't sky rewards always been there cuz?

[mistaTea]

Hasn't sky rewards always been there cuz?


No? I don't believe so?

[sb9]

Probably good idea to ignore this thread today :scared:

[mistaTea]

Jesus Christ! The stocks at $1.78

https://i.imgur.com/0uHd1Fo.jpg

30% premium from here is the same as takeover price but board claims stock is undervalued!

Stock barely moved from placement TERP!

Picked up another 5K shares @$1.79.

By the time they settle on the campus early next year, they will likely have ~$100M or so cash ($55M property + $35M cash at June 30 + additional FCF generated since).

So purchasing Sky at a market cap of ~$300M - $320M at the moment means you are effectively buying Sky TV's operations for $200M.

Happy to keep building my position over time.

[Rustycage]

New interview with media OG John Malone out today, think with CNBC, if you need time away from watching the SP. Having problems attaching link, apologies

[mistaTea]

New interview with media OG John Malone out today, think with CNBC, if you need time away from watching the SP. Having problems attaching link, apologies

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/18/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-liberty-media-chairman-john-malone.html

[Muse]

Picked up another 5K shares @$1.79.

By the time they settle on the campus early next year, they will likely have ~$100M or so cash ($55M property + $35M cash at June 30 + additional FCF generated since).

So purchasing Sky at a market cap of ~$300M - $320M at the moment means you are effectively buying Sky TV's operations for $200M.

Happy to keep building my position over time.

Don't worry MistaTea. You will either be richly rewarded, or harshly punished, with this one. Hard to see the middle ground. FIngers crossed a big announcement on this one for you lot.

On the subject of announcements, aside from the adhoc surprise announcements, do you know what the next dates are for earnings releases etc?

[mistaTea]

It's at $1.76

Stop buying the stock bro!


https://i.imgur.com/0uHd1Fo.jpg


Lol.

Stop looking at the stock price every 5 mins mate.

You are going to give yourself a stroke.

[mistaTea]

Don't worry MistaTea. You will either be richly rewarded.

Yes, I agree with you 100%

[Alpha]

Not liking the depth on this, in saying that I could buy back in now but will the slide ever stop.

[mistaTea]

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/11/18/watch-cnbcs-full-interview-with-liberty-media-chairman-john-malone.html


Interesting interview.

Talks a lot about the importance of consumer stickiness (reducing churn) and bundling as a key way to achieve that.

Areas that SNT are focussed on.

Broadband and Sky Rewards help with these goals. An entry into Mobile will be a good move for Sky too. FY22 could be the release of the new STB and entry into Mobile. Plus bundles with streaming services.

If you are a customer with the new STB, Broadband and Mobile...paying anywhere between $200 - $250 per month to Sky...how likely is it that you are going to cancel your TV sub?

[mikelee]

Keen to top up at this price, even though I'm averaging UP. :t_up:

[mistaTea]

I don't know weather to dump the stock so it goes lower and pisses of Pooman

I thought we established Pooman doesn't care about the SNT stock?


Or buy the stock at a cheaper price to piss of MT

An investor does not care if someone else bought in at a lower price - good for them. Inner scorecard is all that ultimately matters over time.

It's probably why I sleep like a baby regardless of what the SP is doing at any given time.

[Quantitative Easing]

Shareholder led class action against sky board?

[mistaTea]

Shareholder led class action against sky board?


We have had our chance to let the Board know we aren't happy about some recent decisions. They are aware of how we feel now.

But it is time to look forward now.

2022 is set to be an interesting year in the Sky saga...and what they do with the $100M is all I am interested in right now. A chunk will be kept for investment, and another chunk will be returned to shareholders somehow.

We will probably get news of the property sale before Xmas. But I wouldn't expect an announcement on capital return until the New Year (once they actually get the cash).

So my advice is the same - sit tight.

Watching the SP bounce around between now and next year will only cause unecessary mental anguish.

[airedale]

A piddling amount of 41,730 shares traded so far today on the NZX. Looks like weak sellers being shaken out.

[LEMON]

A piddling amount of 41,730 shares traded so far today on the NZX. Looks like weak sellers being shaken out.

Weak? I would say uninformed and tired lol

*Maybe uninformed is the wrong use of wording, maybe tired and left in the dark is a better way to put it*

[mistaTea]

Weak? I would say uninformed and tired lol

*Maybe uninformed is the wrong use of wording, maybe tired and left in the dark is a better way to put it*

Worrying about what terms other buyers and sellers have agreed to trade their shares on has never made much sense to me.

You do your research, you form your opinion, you take your position and then you...do nothing.

If your convicion is high then the behaviour of other market participants should not impact you too much.

[LEMON]

Worrying about what terms other buyers and sellers have agreed to trade their shares on has never made much sense to me.

You do your research, you form your opinion, you take your position and then you...do nothing.

If your convicion is high then the behaviour of other market participants should not impact you too much.

My comment was more directed towards the board than other holders, I'm saying they are probably sick of the management around the property sales, T/O, chairman leaving NZ etc etc

[mistaTea]

After all that hooing and booing earlier it looks like the SP will end up closing about where it started today.

What a waste of emotional energy earlier.

[mistaTea]

It's cause you're buying more!

Let someone else get some.

Not guilty!

I grabbed 5K soon after the market opened but that's my quota for today!

[Balance]

Not guilty!

I grabbed 5K soon after the market opened but that's my quota for today!

Could be the best buy yet - imagine if there's an announcement first thing on Monday morning that the property has been sold, and merger talks are taking place.

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/THsjKED.gif

Mate! After all that hullabaloo it closed @$1.79!

I didn't make "dem gainz" today...but it would be as if I made my order in the morning, never looked at Sky throughout the day...then had a quick nosey after the markets closed with a cold beer in hand...

Nothing to see here! Market right where I left it.

I think you need to ban yourself from checking the stock price more than once a month between now and the HY results.

[Xenith]

Sold ZEL for a 28% gain and couldn't wait and hope for more. Up 18% on SKT over the last year but nothing of significance happening with this stock. Put my ZEL funds into SAND crypto and up 62% in 5 days. The market doesn't believe in SKT and management are doing nothing to encourage it. This leadership team is super frustrating.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

<never mind>

[jimdog31]

<never mind>

I think you'll find that's not the same property...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think you'll find that's not the same property...

Yeah I realized as soon as I posted that of course Sylvia park is also in mt Wellington, and KPG has been buying up the surrounding land like crazy for expansion into residential etc.

[jimdog31]

Yeah I realized as soon as I posted that of course Sylvia park is also in mt Wellington, and KPG has been buying up the surrounding land like crazy for expansion into residential etc.

ALthough that 27,5$ mill should give you an idea of what ST property is worth

[mistaTea]

Look, it's only been three and a half months since Sky started a 'targeted campaign' to sell the entire campus!

Nothing to worry about! he he he :eek2:

[Balance]

Look, it's only been three and a half months since Sky started a 'targeted campaign' to sell the entire campus!

Nothing to worry about! he he he :eek2:

A landowner I know just sold his big piece of land (4.3 hectares) in Pukekohe after it has been on the market for 6 months. His first deal at $5.3m fell through due to purchaser being unable to come up with the funding so he took it to auction. It sold for $8.0m unconditIonally at the auction.

True story - talk to real estate agents in that area and they all know it.

[mistaTea]

A landowner I know just sold his big piece of land (4.3 hectares) in Pukekohe after it has been on the market for 6 months. His first deal at $5.3m fell through due to purchaser being unable to come up with the funding so he took it to auction. It sold for $8.0m unconditIonally at the auction.

True story - talk to real estate agents in that area and they all know it.

Good for him!

And I am only teasing. Whether the deal is signed this month or next month makes absolutely no difference to me.

It is good that the Board are making sure they extract maximum value for shareholders - i.e doing their job.

If it ends up taking a while to get the right deal done, then so be it.

[Balance]

Good for him!

And I am only teasing. Whether the deal is signed this month or next month makes absolutely no difference to me.

It is good that the Board are making sure they extract maximum value for shareholders - i.e doing their job.

If it ends up taking a while to get the right deal done, then so be it.

He got lucky.

But it also shows how much land prices have moved in the last 6 months in Auckland region!

[jimdog31]

He got lucky.

But it also shows how much land prices have moved in the last 6 months in Auckland region!

So what youre really saying is the longer this goes on the better hehe

[Balance]

So what youre really saying is the longer this goes on the better hehe

Not necessarily always the case but the last 6 months in Auckland has been exceptional in terms of increased in land values.

[jimdog31]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d08Cnyzi_iw

Monday Feels for SKT

[jimdog31]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d08Cnyzi_iw

Monday Feels for SKT

"you confirm it with your lies....."

[mistaTea]

Maybe the market thinks that the campus is so worthless that Sky will end up needing to pay someone to take it off their hands?

I can't think of another explanation to explain the vote of no confidence from Mr Market...

[Balance]

Maybe the market thinks that the campus is so worthless that Sky will end up needing to pay someone to take it off their hands?

I can't think of another explanation to explain the vote of no confidence from Mr Market...

Traders are bailing out while ‘believers’ are already way overweight.

[airedale]

Traders are bailing out while ‘believers’ are already way overweight.
It is the old story, Balance. The market can stay irrational longer than the believers can remain solvent.
Disc.... I am still solvent;)

[nztx]

Didn't Ogg suggest that SKT would announce sale of some bricks & mortar today ? ;)

or was it all another false alarm ? :)

[Balance]

Didn't Ogg suggest that SKT would announce sale of some bricks & mortar today ? ;)

or was it all another false alarm ? :)

LOL - Ogg has been suggesting SKT would be taken over on how many occasions now?

And you still accord anything from him as credible?

[mistaTea]

https://i.imgur.com/sQzVAlt.jpg

May 2016 - Ogg slams Sky.Predict shares will fall. Stock trading at $25 per share (consolidation adjusted).

https://i.imgur.com/Rv7n7oo.jpg

March 2020 - Ogg's first entry into stock. Sky MC ~$90m.

https://i.imgur.com/bJgzZtp.jpg

June 2020 - Ogg first mention of takeover.

https://i.imgur.com/dtv1M6P.jpg

4 days later - Balance predicts a merger

https://i.imgur.com/NlT5MnX.jpg


Subsequent events:

-Infratil pivots into medical. Doesn't see Spark Sport as threat. Passes on Sky. Infrastructure booms, shifts away from retail. Likely going to sell Vodafone now so puts off takeover It's likely Vodafone

-US and EU get hit hard by winter Covid wave.

-Discovery takes time to restructure TV3. Tries to follow Disney model. Doesn't work as expected. Takes time to see it through.

-ComCom slow OSB sale.

-Discovery/Warner merger takes priority. Other takeover/merges on hold.

-Vocus looks to do merger with Sky. Gets taken over by AWARE instead. Puts all plans on hold.

-2 Degrees owner in debt. Needs to raise capital. Gets bogged down with bankers and IPO. Decides to do merger with Vocus instead. All other deals on hold.

-Comcast makes offer, gets turned down.

-NZ gets hit by Covid. Property sale delayed

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT post covid and the placement, Sky has always looked to consoildate, merge or be taken over by another company but the market hasn't been favourable in terms of timing. It's also been distracing by it's own turn around streadgy, CEO changes, employment issues, complex content renewls, content partership deals etc.

Last 18 months has been HELL!!

I'm confident that we're nearing the end of this ridiculous story! Likely early next year at the latest. I'm sure there will be a deal hopefully before February if not much sooner! You can call out all my bull sh*t but there are solid reasons for the delay. The reason the stock is down is because the old narrative still holds true in the NZ investor community. Stock will likely struggle until a takeover happens. Management are aware of this, most of all Pooman. I will wait this out!!! Will buy more if the stock drops below $1.70.

Peace, peace Mercutio! Thou talks of nothing.

[Balance]

Peace, peace Mercutio! Thou talks of nothing.

A little prod & Ogg comes out all guns blazing, after spending the whole yesterday compiling his selective recall of postings on SKT!

Chill, Ogg - whatever will be will be as it’s clear SKT does not really care too much about short term share price fluctuations than on executing its strategy.

[mistaTea]

A little prod & Ogg comes out all guns blazing, after spending the whole yesterday compiling his selective recall of postings on SKT!

Chill, Ogg - whatever will be will be as it’s clear SKT does not really care too much about short term share price fluctuations than on executing its strategy.

Zero point fretting about the SP now.

The property sale will take however long it takes. That is one potential catalyst.

Dividends will likely be resumed soon. If they don’t do one in Feb (perhaps because they are doing a buyback) then we get a bigger one in October.

The STB will be released next year. I think they will do a pilot in Feb/March (I hope to be part of that) with a full rollout by April/May.

In the meantime I am sure they are working on other deals. For example, 2D and Orcon will almost certainly want wholesale deals with Sky for NEON and SSN to help them compete against Spark. They could offer popular bundles that could be a growth driver for Sky (albeit at lower margins but also at lower operational cost to Sky).

Issues with board and management transparency on a couple of key issues aside, things are actually humming along.

I would recommend not even looking at the SP more than once a month. Even less would be ideal.

[Balance]

Zero point fretting about the SP now.

The property sale will take however long it takes. That is one potential catalyst.

Dividends will likely be resumed soon. If they don’t do one in Feb (perhaps because they are doing a buyback) then we get a bigger one in October.

The STB will be released next year. I think they will do a pilot in Feb/March (I hope to be part of that) with a full rollout by April/May.

In the meantime I am sure they are working on other deals. For example, 2D and Orcon will almost certainly want wholesale deals with Sky for NEON and SSN to help them compete against Spark. They could offer popular bundles that could be a growth driver for Sky (albeit at lower margins but also at lower operational cost to Sky).

Issues with board and management transparency on a couple of key issues aside, things are actually humming along.

I would recommend not even looking at the SP more than once a month. Even less would be ideal.

Agreed.

Easy to miss the wood for the trees, staring at the sp rather than the broad strategy.

[DownTownJr]

I saw yesterday on TV that 2Degrees is offering 6 months free Neon and Amazon prime when you sign up with their unlimited broadband plan.

[mistaTea]

I saw yesterday on TV that 2Degrees is offering 6 months free Neon and Amazon prime when you sign up with their unlimited broadband plan.

Yeah, they sure are.

https://www.2degrees.nz/broadband/benefits/broadband-with-benefits?discount=yes

It is good for Sky to have a great relationship with both Orcon and 2D.

Keep things warm between the businesses. If Sky can increase their valuation to something more representative of their Earning Power then all sorts of other possibilities could be presented.

But for now we just sit tight and do the easiest thing in the world - nothing.

[jimdog31]

how good is 23/2.30 looking right now?

[mistaTea]

how good is 23/2.30 looking right now?

I think that depends on what The Board are able to deliver next year.

If we blow past the HY results and the SP continues to languish then The Board have a lot of explaining to do. Why the F did you flat refuse an opening offer of 23cps when you don’t have the ability to generate a superior result for shareholders?

But if they get the mix of growth projects and capital management right…and these measures lift shareholder returns above what we would have had if we just sold the business in June…then we will be thankful that Bowman did what he did.

Only time will tell.

But sit tight Jimdog31! As Sophie would probably say - Kia Kaha!

[jimdog31]

I think that depends on what The Board are able to deliver next year.

If we blow past the HY results and the SP continues to languish then The Board have a lot of explaining to do. Why the F did you flat refuse an opening offer of 23cps when you don’t have the ability to generate a superior result for shareholders?

But if they get the mix of growth projects and capital management right…and these measures lift shareholder returns above what we would have had if we just sold the business in June…then we will be thankful that Bowman did what he did.

Only time will tell.

But sit tight Jimdog31! As Sophie would probably say - Kia Kaha!

Thats the sickest looking buyer depth ive seen!! qex logistics had more!

[mistaTea]

Thats the sickest looking buyer depth ive seen!! qex logistics had more!

I don’t even know what the SP for sky is right now.

No idea what you are fussing about.

Stop staring at the squiggly lines all day. The day to day market behaviour for Sky is unlikely to lift your mood.

[mistaTea]

See you all again in Feb.

Have a wonderful Xmas/NY.

I look forward to seeing what Sky can deliver for us next year.

Chat soon!

[jimdog31]

I don’t even know what the SP for sky is right now.

No idea what you are fussing about.

Stop staring at the squiggly lines all day. The day to day market behaviour for Sky is unlikely to lift your mood.

Im not fussing, just stating a fact. I think we can all agree that market sentiment does not believe in this board, and their plans!

That being said, im ready to buy more if this slide continues.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well would you look at that... my long term holding is back to breakeven :).

Looking like capitulation to me so I have made my first swing entry.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What a poop show

[Baa_Baa]

Small consolation Sophie is down 7% on her 83000 shares purchased 31 August, but what’s $10.5k paper loss to her?

[LoungeLizzard]

They need to update the market about the property sale!

Studio One still is not listed.

Listing has been pulled on Colliers site

Seriously, how hard is it to write a single paragraph outlining at what stage they are in the sale process!!

At this rate we'll be back at 1.59, a.k.a the dead-in-the-water 15.9c that for month after month SKY investors got used to seeing on their screens through bloodshot eyes. Back then Sophie said SKY was seriously undervalued by the market. What now then? Without news the market assumes the worst - and given Sky's track record that is the right thing to do. It fills in the gaps and with the only "news" being that the Chairman has done a runner who can blame investors for selling down.
The antidote to market jitters is to start making announcements on....anything. Property sale is the biggie. The funds (if returned to shareholders) will provoke an instant revaluation. Just get a move on, otherwise all the good work with the share consolidation will come to nothing.

[jimdog31]

So much for the share consolidation making this a less traded share....

[jimdog31]

I don't think MT's coming back, he's probably done a 'Robin Bain'.

I kinda wanna do the same. This roller coaster isnt fun to ride at times!

I totally agree they should release Plan A & Plan B re capital management. That would calm the nerves

[jimdog31]

Any announcement would be nice.

They can start with confirming Bowman is still alive

Or Dead? you decide which way will make the price move which way!

[Entrep]

My complaint about Bowman ditching NZ and no announcement came back with the NZX saying there was no breach

[The Punter]

Looks like a Lego set.

[ba9]

Just wondering if SKT is on trading halt. No announcement on NZX. No info on hotcopper either.

Edit: It back up now. 10.41am.

[jimdog31]

Just wondering if SKT is on trading halt. No announcement on NZX. No info on hotcopper either.

Edit: It back up now. 10.41am.

Nah, its just an Insto buying halt.

[ba9]

Thank you jimdog :t_up:

[airedale]

Depth looks thin. Sharesies sell bot will start moving down.
Getting close to your "back up the truck" buy zone, Ogg.

[airedale]

https://i.imgur.com/5Bf2Iau.gifvery good,LOL but only my wife can hear, and she would want to know why I paid a few cents more on Monday if she knew.

[bobestm]

https://i.imgur.com/5Bf2Iau.gif

Being an Indian myself, I can so relate to that picture of carrying that load .. but yea its getting time to load on SKT.

[ILoveTheIRD]

I've been lurking on this thread for a few months. Reading this has been a lot of fun and is part of the reason why I had joined this forum. Sky is my biggest pick in my portfolio.

It sucks that it is down but I don't think we should be demotivated by factors like the property sale which is bound to happen sooner or later. It's fair to expect that it's going to be a slower sell than smaller residential million dollar properties in the area. It's a pretty big piece of land with a big asking cost. It's all dependent on finding the match made in heaven. The longer it takes, in this market, isn't necessarily the worst either. There still seems to be a fair bit of steam in the growth of property prices which can't be a bad thing for us.

The sale of the property will be a nice extra but it isn't the sole reason why I am attracted to this stock. The way I see it, I believe it's still crazily undervalued. There's a healthy balance sheet. It's making us a profit which could then be used to give us a dividend in the future. It may take longer but it's not out of the picture. Realistically it will take a few years for Sky to get the valuation it deserves but the wait will be worth it. I'm looking at how they can maintain profits sustainably, how many users will be on the broadband network, and them getting more people to join up Sky in one form or another. Based on those metrics, things look on the up.

Don't lose hope.

[sb9]

I've been lurking on this thread for a few months. Reading this has been a lot of fun and is part of the reason why I had joined this forum. Sky is my biggest pick in my portfolio.

It sucks that it is down but I don't think we should be demotivated by factors like the property sale which is bound to happen sooner or later. It's fair to expect that it's going to be a slower sell than smaller residential million dollar properties in the area. It's a pretty big piece of land with a big asking cost. It's all dependent on finding the match made in heaven. The longer it takes, in this market, isn't necessarily the worst either. There still seems to be a fair bit of steam in the growth of property prices which can't be a bad thing for us.

The sale of the property will be a nice extra but it isn't the sole reason why I am attracted to this stock. The way I see it, I believe it's still crazily undervalued. There's a healthy balance sheet. It's making us a profit which could then be used to give us a dividend in the future. It may take longer but it's not out of the picture. Realistically it will take a few years for Sky to get the valuation it deserves but the wait will be worth it. I'm looking at how they can maintain profits sustainably, how many users will be on the broadband network, and them getting more people to join up Sky in one form or another. Based on those metrics, things look on the up.

Don't lose hope.

Good rational post, our resident cheerleader for this thread could learn a thing or two from your analysis ;)

[jimdog31]

I've been lurking on this thread for a few months. Reading this has been a lot of fun and is part of the reason why I had joined this forum. Sky is my biggest pick in my portfolio.

It sucks that it is down but I don't think we should be demotivated by factors like the property sale which is bound to happen sooner or later. It's fair to expect that it's going to be a slower sell than smaller residential million dollar properties in the area. It's a pretty big piece of land with a big asking cost. It's all dependent on finding the match made in heaven. The longer it takes, in this market, isn't necessarily the worst either. There still seems to be a fair bit of steam in the growth of property prices which can't be a bad thing for us.

The sale of the property will be a nice extra but it isn't the sole reason why I am attracted to this stock. The way I see it, I believe it's still crazily undervalued. There's a healthy balance sheet. It's making us a profit which could then be used to give us a dividend in the future. It may take longer but it's not out of the picture. Realistically it will take a few years for Sky to get the valuation it deserves but the wait will be worth it. I'm looking at how they can maintain profits sustainably, how many users will be on the broadband network, and them getting more people to join up Sky in one form or another. Based on those metrics, things look on the up.

Don't lose hope.

That you Sophie?! nga mihi thank you for the words of encouragement. keep up the mahi!!

[jimdog31]

I've been lurking on this thread for a few months. Reading this has been a lot of fun and is part of the reason why I had joined this forum. Sky is my biggest pick in my portfolio.

It sucks that it is down but I don't think we should be demotivated by factors like the property sale which is bound to happen sooner or later. It's fair to expect that it's going to be a slower sell than smaller residential million dollar properties in the area. It's a pretty big piece of land with a big asking cost. It's all dependent on finding the match made in heaven. The longer it takes, in this market, isn't necessarily the worst either. There still seems to be a fair bit of steam in the growth of property prices which can't be a bad thing for us.

The sale of the property will be a nice extra but it isn't the sole reason why I am attracted to this stock. The way I see it, I believe it's still crazily undervalued. There's a healthy balance sheet. It's making us a profit which could then be used to give us a dividend in the future. It may take longer but it's not out of the picture. Realistically it will take a few years for Sky to get the valuation it deserves but the wait will be worth it. I'm looking at how they can maintain profits sustainably, how many users will be on the broadband network, and them getting more people to join up Sky in one form or another. Based on those metrics, things look on the up.

Don't lose hope.

Maybe judging by the timestamp its Phil!! gidday Phil! can you please let us know when your buying some more shares from the sale of your vast real estate empire? Cheers!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Pretty unusual price action really. Big flush on Tuesday on average volume, then a very low volume day yesterday. Usually flushes are followed by some strong volume. No sign of Osmium. Makes me wonder if games are being played and something is going on behind the scenes.

[jimdog31]

Pretty unusual price action really. Big flush on Tuesday on average volume, then a very low volume day yesterday. Usually flushes are followed by some strong volume. No sign of Osmium. Makes me wonder if games are being played and something is going on behind the scenes.

They are buying other opportunities

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.marketwatch.com/amp/story/spark-networks-adrs-higher-after-osmium-partners-increase-stake-271637774720

[Balance]

Pretty unusual price action really. Big flush on Tuesday on average volume, then a very low volume day yesterday. Usually flushes are followed by some strong volume. No sign of Osmium. Makes me wonder if games are being played and something is going on behind the scenes.

My observation - a biggish buyer emerged in the afternoon and took out stock at $1.72, leaving over 60,000 still on the bid. The size sellers immediately all started disappearing.

At the close, someone paid up at $1.73, queue jumping the biggish buyer at $1.72.

The biggish buyer pulled out after the close, no doubt waiting for the sellers to start queuing up again today?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

My observation - a biggish buyer emerged in the afternoon and took out stock at $1.72, leaving over 60,000 still on the bid. The size sellers immediately all started disappearing.

At the close, someone paid up at $1.73, queue jumping the biggish buyer at $1.72.

The biggish buyer pulled out after the close, no doubt waiting for the sellers to start queuing up again today?

Yes same thing occurred the day before too and only appeared late afternoon. They had a variable bid size which suggests they want volume and someone to sell into them. Testing the market.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I’m sure glad Sky management turned down the opportunity to start a bidding war starting at the $2.30c takeover offer price so we could get to experience these sadomasochistic delights in the $1.65c regions!

[Sideshow Bob]

I’m sure glad Sky management turned down the opportunity to start a bidding war starting at the $2.30c takeover offer price so we could get to experience these sadomasochistic delights in the $1.65c regions!

Don't you love companies you have shares in sharing their sadomasochistic tendencies............:scared:

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Added a small swing parcel this morning taking advantage of retail sell down early morning. Probably flick off to the late afternoon buyer. Should cover a case of champagne for Xmas.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Stock is almost at $1.80!

What just happened?

https://i.imgur.com/o6yy5IN.gif

Market just responding to the fact that I'll need 2 cases, not just 1.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Plenty of games being played with buy side volume on both NZX and ASX the last hour. Large blocks coming and going and being shuffled around. Big money appears to be back buying for sure.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A nice technical setup that I like trading and is why I added a swing position in the 160's.

After such a large rise and then pullback >50% from the previous low we can expect the low ($1.56) to hold with the price bouncing before this. Once a bounce is underway, it is most likely that a new high will not be immediately made. Instead the equilibrium will play out making lower highs and higher lows until finally breaking.

In addition to this, the high of each weekly candle has been lower than the previous one for 10 weeks. When this occurs I love the signal of breaking the previous candle high as an indicator for a bounce (shows a change in momentum).This would occur with a break of $1.83.

Weekly chart: https://www.tradingview.com/x/aJUmJJ1y/

Disc: long term hold, swing hold, day trade hold.

[jimdog31]

Help me out here JimDog!!



Sky announce they're selling huge plot of land in central Auckland suitable for an Aged Care Facility.
Oceania Healthcare does huge placement out of the blue for new growth opportunities
Sky Chairman says wait until February for update.
Oceania Healthcare appoint property developer Andrew Buckingham staring in February

https://i.imgur.com/n4w8fwp.jpg

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/383584

Me connecting all the dots!

https://i.imgur.com/ufDGln0.jpg

Its definitely not OCA buying it.... I was the first to come up with that theory but have abandoned it.

[jimdog31]

THink Osmium could be back boys. Its happening on both AU & NZ.

[Baa_Baa]

I think it was that MorningStar buy recommendation that did it.

Possible but unlikely imo given their reputation here.

Reco from Morningstar in NZ is still 17/11 Accumulate $NZ3.00.

Updated in Aus yesterday 24/11 to Buy $AU2.90

Either would be nice.

[Quantitative Easing]

Sky TV up on Judith Collins getting rolled. Hopefully national puts forward a credible candidate to fight socialism in Aotearoa. Maybe Simon Bridges or J̶o̶h̶n̶n̶y̶ ̶S̶i̶n̶s̶ Chris Luxon.

[jimdog31]

I know you came up with this.

What makes you so sure it's not happening?

Speaking to people in the know, its not a simple process to rezone and not a given, would require a conditional purchase with a lengthy settlement . they wouldnt be buying it without certainty.

[airedale]

Okay, this is speculation but consider this FPH are going to invest 700 million in land and buildings. Pure speculation but someone with knowledge of FPH may know if the SKY site would be suitable




News Release
STOCK EXCHANGE LISTINGS: NEW ZEALAND (FPH), AUSTRALIA (FPH)

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare announces result for the first half of the 2022 financial year

Auckland, New Zealand, 25 November 2021 – Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited
today announced its results for the first half of the 2022 financial year.

For the six months ended 30 September 2021, total operating revenue was $900 million. This was a
1% decline from the same period in the previous financial year, or a 2% increase in constant
currency. Net profit after tax for the first half was $222 million, a 2% decline from the prior
comparable period, or a 1% decline in constant currency.

Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon said, “For nearly two years now, our customers have
been working selflessly to care for patients during a pandemic. Our people and our suppliers have
also been working under demanding circumstances, and we are grateful for their relentless
commitment.

“As you may recall, the first half of the last financial year was a period of extraordinary demand
during the initial surges of COVID-19. Our financial results in the first half of the 2022 financial year
have continued to be very strong,” Mr Gradon continued.

In the Hospital product group, which includes humidification products used in respiratory, acute and
surgical care, revenue for the first half was $670 million, a decline of 2% from the first half of the
2021 financial year, or an increase of 1% in constant currency. Hospital consumables grew 8% in
constant currency, and of total Hospital product group revenue, 67% was from the sale of
consumables and 33% was from the sale of hardware.
In the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep
apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home, revenue was $227 million, a 0.3% increase over
the prior comparable period, or 3% in constant currency.
Gross margin was 63.1%, up 135 basis points or 53 basis points in constant currency compared to
the first half of the 2021 financial year. Elevated freight costs and air freight utilisation continued but
were lower than the same period last year, impacting gross margin by approximately 190 basis points
compared to pre-COVID-19 levels.

The company’s directors have approved an interim dividend of 17 cents per ordinary share. The
interim dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 15 December 2021 with
a record date of 3 December 2021.

The company also announced that over the next five years it expects to invest approximately
$700 million in land and buildings. This includes a fifth building completing its Auckland campus
and acquiring land for a second New Zealand campus.

[Muse]

My biggest fear in life is placing an order for Skellerup (SKL) when it pops well below six bucks a share and accidently typing SKT on the purchase order instead.

Jest aside, I totally understand why Ogg, MistaT, & many others are so frustrated. As they have been able to articulate a clear gameplan to build shareholder wealth much more competently than management have been able to, let alone execute on. And its not even a hard plan! Its easy to visualise the building blocks, the logical counterparties, the catalysts and outcomes from it all. I've been tempted to purchase on a few occasions but the performance from the Board and management is at a level less than dire. The good news there is a business there, that seems to be turning away from the iceberg & sailing towards port, and a clear plan on what to do from here. Even the thick headed powers that be might get it at some point, a bit of shareholder value destruction in the interim aside. Good luck to you holders. You brave, brave holders. You lot do deserve a reward, and I hope it comes to you.

[Muse]

Speaking to people in the know, its not a simple process to rezone and not a given, would require a conditional purchase with a lengthy settlement . they wouldnt be buying it without certainty.

Oggs connecting the dots make sense to me. It's been delisted from colliers and all that - off the market - no chit chat - doesn't all that imply its under a conditional sale and purchase agreement? OCA not interested/capable of doing a conditional sale and purchase agreement?

[snigmac]

These agreements (even when highly likely to finalize) are highly conditional agreements. In addition to due diligence clauses, there will potentially be a confidentiality clause aswell, as this is a commercially sensitive matter (the parties will both be well represented). We won't get an update on the sale until it's unconditional.

[Balance]

These agreements (even when highly likely to finalize) are highly conditional agreements. In addition to due diligence clauses, there will potentially be a confidentiality clause aswell, as this is a commercially sensitive matter (the parties will both be well represented). We won't get an update on the sale until it's unconditional.

Depends on the sale process, a S&P agreement can be rather tight around conditions.

One of the sale process of a huge piece of dirt in Flat Bush Auckland was conditional only on Council's confirmation of the sub-division plan. All other conditions (due diligence, finance etc) were considered satisfied when the final two bidders were invited to put in their final bid.

[snigmac]

I'm just saying that it is a easily defendable position for SKT to not disclose updates on the sale of the property based on the confidentiality clause that is likely to be in the agreement and the conditional basis of the agreement.

[snigmac]

My understanding is that they don't need 34A to proceed with a development, however, it will be abit more expensive (for the developer). There are rules around withholding consent when it is unreasonable to not provide consent.

[jimdog31]

You gotta be kidding me!

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5876464

Announcing strengthened leadership team , would have been the right moment to mention Pooman leaving the country right???

Sick of this board.

[sb9]

You gotta be kidding me!

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=5876464

Announcing strengthened leadership team , would have been the right moment to mention Pooman leaving the country right???

Sick of this board.

More nuggets in the newsletter, should hear soon about property sale sometime in Dec. Looks like someone from company has been reading this thread and shareholders agony over past few weeks.

[Rustycage]

Ogg you’re so positive today!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I got the impression from today’s “Investor newsletter” that dividends or share buybacks are off the table.


The Board is committed to recycling capital to reinvest in areas of the business that create the most value for our customers and, ultimately, our shareholders.

Share price hasn’t budged today on this update.

[Rustycage]

If that’s the case, I’m very interested to hear about their plans to deploy the prodigious FCF Sky is generating. Even more so after the funds from the property sale come in

[LoungeLizzard]

Time to chill out and wait for Decembers announcements. Seems like the board have got the message...