SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

If that’s the case, I’m very interested to hear about their plans to deploy the prodigious FCF Sky is generating. Even more so after the funds from the property sale come in

Most of it will go on rolling out the new skybox, and also on additional sky broadband customers. Both of those efforts cost a large amount of upfront capital (to pay for the end user hardware) - the cost of which is recouped very slowly over the course of a couple of years. So Sky needs a big increase in working capital to pay for all the hardware upfront.

[sb9]

I got the impression from today’s “Investor newsletter” that dividends or share buybacks are off the table.



Share price hasn’t budged today on this update.

The full para suggests otherwise to me..

"The Board is committed to recycling capital to reinvest in areasof the business that create the most value for our customersand, ultimately, our shareholders. Subject to satisfactorycompletion of the property sale process, the Board will finalisea capital management strategy and provide details of this atthe Interim Results in February 2022."

[LoungeLizzard]

I got the impression from today’s “Investor newsletter” that dividends or share buybacks are off the table.

Share price hasn’t budged today on this update.

As has been pointed out, it isn't an either or. They should have sufficient funds to provide some shareholder relief by way of a dividend- and give the SP a boost - and to reinvest in the business. SKY has been banging the drum about investing for the future and ignored the present. Shareholders have been more than patient and some reward needs to come their way - and soon.

[Habits]

Xxxxxxxxxxxxx

[ILoveTheIRD]

That you Sophie?! nga mihi thank you for the words of encouragement. keep up the mahi!!

That was pretty good timing with the release of the newsletter today. Even Ogg is giving them a chance now! I'm pretty happy with what I've read today.

[snigmac]

Lol that is gold. My opinion is that, the longer the tail end of COVID-19 extends for, the longer people will remain indoors. This in turn may increase/maintain Sky's revenue. I was ready to buy more at $1.68 last week but couldn't get any, if it gets to that price point again, I will be buying more.

[mikelee]

I couldn't even get any @ $1.72 :cool:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I see the Super Rugby season schedule has been thrown into limbo given the Governments timing for border reopening with Australia meaning trans Tasman games are not going to work well. I’m actually ok with this if it means we get another season of Super Rugby Aotearoa, which in my opinion is the far superior competition to watch (especially if they have a 6th team this year in the form of one of the Pacifica sides - that would mean 3 games per weekend). I would rather watch 3 NZ super games a week than 6 games including the useless Australian teams.

[snigmac]

Does Sky have a business hub/analyst website affiliate?

[THEONE]

If someone was interested in taking over SKY at $2.3, Surely they are still interested now at $1.70..
I wonder what would be the magic number for Sky shareholders to agree to it.
I think most are getting a bit tired of it all

[mikelee]

Happy to sell mine for $3.50 :)

[snigmac]

It's a good price to get in currently... I have loaded up in some more.

Anyone know how big Sky TVs Albany premise is?

[snigmac]

Is that you selling 150k shares Ogg :o

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So how long left before SKT is kicked out of the NZX50 index?

[nztx]

You know I'm hanging around a little longer.



When it gets delisted by the new owners.


A bit of a tigger for punishment - aren't you ? ;)

Please wake me when we reach a buck a shot .. I might develop a deep interest in SKT again at those levels :)

[Quantitative Easing]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/american-film-tv-giant-warner-bros-wins-consent-to-buy-auckland-land/UA5B7FGYMC2VJBTTVCBYBEEUVU/

[LEMON]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/american-film-tv-giant-warner-bros-wins-consent-to-buy-auckland-land/UA5B7FGYMC2VJBTTVCBYBEEUVU/

Ogg is currently putting together his speech

[LEMON]

Lol its not even to do with SKY warner bros buying land in Auckland, T/O, Ogg, Conspiracys, it was a joke

[Quantitative Easing]

The real tragedy of this labour government isn't child poverty, crime or homelessness. It is that Sky Tv's share price had declined by 89% while Labour has been in government. Maybe Luxon can turn around Sky share price?

[Akane]

I sold all my shares today, took at 50%+ hit, thanks guys been great entertainment.

Watch it moon tomorrow, 100% it'll.

[Chinesekiwi]

I sold all my shares today, took at 50%+ hit, thanks guys been great entertainment.

Watch it moon tomorrow, 100% it'll.

It is indeed an entertaining thread - sorry for your loss, I went deeper into the share today.... still feel it's a risk worth taking.

[snigmac]

What happened to diamond hands :o ?

Like everyone else I will be waiting until at least Feb 2022.

[mikelee]

Yes, I agree. Unless you desperately need the money you should at least wait till after the property sales update promised this month. I seriously doubt that Sophie will have bad news for shareholders.

[snigmac]

I will keep a diamond hand until at least Feb 2022.

[Balance]

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett

“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.”

“One clear and simple investment edge that anyone can choose to take advantage of is patience.”

[freebee]

New 5 year basketball deal a "gamechanger" they say. Not much detail, but says will financial returns directed back directly to the teams.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/basketball/300468384/sky-tvs-new-deal-with-nzs-national-basketball-leagues-hailed-as-gamechanger

[Jay]

Sky Rewards

Yeah been with them for 25+ years - Yah! a free channel for a month- at least I will not have to cancel it myself... I hope! not like the rest of their "freebies" .. here try this channel free for a month and if you don't want it then let us know at the end of the month!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wasn’t even aware NZ still had a professional national basketball league - I thought the NZ breakers playing in the Australian league sort of killed any local professional league off.

[snigmac]

Napier most likely got the boot, but not Sky because the NZX50 has to be diversified. There are already larger port companies on this. Sky is one of the few media aggregators. That is my best guess.

[mfd]

NPH is majority owned by the Regional Council so gets hit by the free float test.

[LEMON]

[QUOTE=Ogg;929851]Pooman out shopping in the UK

https://i.imgur.com/Il4v53K.gif

Is that a bag full of money weighing him down

[snigmac]

If the property sale is to materialize in December. We should get an update this week.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://i.imgur.com/0AQXszk.jpeg

Gold! Ha Ha Ha

[sb9]

We could get to $3 in a hurry....mighty update today :D Go Sophie....

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Holy crap. There's a good chance this is why takeover offers have been flat out rejected - they hadn't yet unlocked the full value of the business. I reckon it's now game on.

[winner69]

Sophie enjoys teasing you guys ……that seductive smile gets you going all the time

[Mel]

Some upward momentum! Its been a long wait
Transformation accelerates - Sky raises FY22 guidance - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384215)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Good update! Sounds like its mostly due to significantly cutting advertising budget and deciding to reduce the amount spent on local sport content dramatically.

there hasn’t actually been any change in revenue, its all about cutting expenses to the bone.

[winner69]

OMG …she said marks a positive inflection point for the business,

Awesome …..hope it means more than OCA’s inflection point

[Almost-confused]

Great update to build confidence

[LEMON]

Great update to build confidence

So $1.60 days end? Lol
Great update

[winner69]

Now guys …come 10am you must concentrate on the spoken word and not on Sophie smiling at yoy …..OK, just concentrate.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Good update! Sounds like its mostly due to significantly cutting advertising budget and deciding to reduce the amount spent on local sport content dramatically.

there hasn’t actually been any change in revenue, its all about cutting expenses to the bone.

Sounds like a PE tactic before a sale!


OMG …she said marks a positive inflection point for the business,

Awesome …..hope it means more than OCA’s inflection point

Never see $1.70 again eh?

[Vitamin_A]

Even on a lousy EV/EBITDA of, say, 3.0x this is at least $1.00 per share undervalued. And, that's parking any consideration of what happens with the funds from the property sale.

[sb9]

Get a feeling that they're almost there with finalising property sale, must be down to few minor details to sort out.

[mikelee]

I'm in the same boat buddy, topped up @ around $2.10 knowing that I'm actually averaging up. :t_up:

[Muse]

I know only part of the way there but happy for you holders (& particularly those LT holders who put their money where they mouth was and bought more) & hope you get some well deserved upword action. I feel a bit excited by it all and I'm not even a holder! and to think I used to just come to this thread for Ogg's mean memes

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.05 - opening strong!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.10 now - this seems good.

[snigmac]

Diamond hands boys

[LoungeLizzard]

Lift-off !
If they can keep the pedal down with news of a property sale and flag a return to dividends, then $2.50 will be attained in short order followed by $3. Good times ahead - finally!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Is anyone listening to the in progress conference call?

[Balance]

“The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient.” Warren Buffett

“Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre.”

“One clear and simple investment edge that anyone can choose to take advantage of is patience.”

Thanks to all the hysterical negative postings, some of us were able to top up at $1.70.

Cheers, everyone!

Champagne & lobsters for dinner this Friday! :t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Analysts asking questions now:

Ari from Jarden:

Q: How did you get Permanent programming costs lower?

A: (Sophie) using customer data and analytics providing info on how much content we need in future that customers actually care about (Sky will buy less), also doing things like commentary team calling games from Auckland studio for the all blacks northern tour (instead of the costs involved with sending them over to Europe)

Q: Capex? Set top box inventory budget?

A: I can safely say new box on target - that’s included in year 2022 capex.

Q: Residential revenue growth?

A: Skybox & Streaming revenue both looking good.

[sb9]

C'mon Arie, give others a chance to ask a question...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Q: Broadband revenue?

A: “really happy with progress with broadband and is tracking in line” (In line with what???)

Q: Cash reserves needed?

A: “Super comfortable” free cashflow will cover capex needs from our perspective, but wait for February board review of capex structure.

Q: Why was there so much fat to cut from the operational expenses?

A: costs savings from right across the business / removing reliance on third parties like consultants / agencies / vendors, also “looking for rebates to secure” / changing marketing spend but confident it wont impact revenue.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Morningstar:

Q: Programming costs - are they just 2022 targets?

A: yes just 2022.

Q: non-recurring items this year (other than property sale):

A: none other than the already flagged one off programming cost.

Q: where did this data & analytic capability come from?

A: was there to use and now we are implementing it after advising the board

[LaserEyeKiwi]

UBS:

Q: FY23 cost savings?

A: $40-45m annualized savings will carry through to 2023 and so will see larger savings in 2023 vs 2022. Should be more than $40-$45m already identified.

Q: 2024?

A: too early to say, but the annualized cost savings will flow through to future years wiht hopefully more.

Q: James from Foxtel - what were his thoughts?

A: he gave expert guidance. He said “Our content slate is incredibly impressive”, and data capability Different market conditions to Foxtel. Both have box customer and going after streaming.

Q: Sky rewards feedback?

A: too early to say.

Q: something Capex something

A: blah blah blah

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ari again:

Q: corporate partnership? Approaches? Status?

A: “Still some interest in us”

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Craigs:

Q: FY24 targets. Cost savings targets? Are todays numbers in addition to that or bringing forward future targets savings?

A: it will be much bigger figure in cost savings by FY24 than previously advised. Bringing forward and also addition to. Not providing guidance though (but he just did really)

Q: capex savings? Pushing costs to future?

A: not deferring capex, just re-evaluated what we actually needed and ditching some things not required.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sophie: thanks for listening, earnings will be Feb 24th.

Call over.

[Muse]

I'm too lazy to work this out - but what's the implied PE ratio at (say 2.03), when adjusting the ratio for a slightly conservative outcome from the sale of mt albert?

IE
(market cap at 2.03 less conservative sale proceeds)
/
(forecast NPAT plus additional lease expense from leaseback of studio one)

?

[mistaTea]

Alright.

So, who believes this is all part of the peacocking process???

Something brewing here.

There was no real 'need' for an announcement today...given the property sale is still not finalised.

They could have waited until next week once they confirmed the property sale - at that point they could have revealed the additional good news with the guidance review.

I mean, HY results are only 10 weeks away!

So it absolutely makes one question why they have taken this approach.

Great news though in terms of permanent savings, increase to projected FCF etc.

[sb9]

There's a real possibility of settling the property sale well before Christmas me thinks, could well be by next week ;)

[mistaTea]

Takeover...?


Yes...or some other kind of merger or partnership. Impossible to say.

Very good news today regardless...thought I would pop in for a quick hello before I go back under my rock until Feb 24 :t_up:

[winner69]

Jeez that Sophie is a tease

[Arbroath]

I'm too lazy to work this out - but what's the implied PE ratio at (say 2.03), when adjusting the ratio for a slightly conservative outcome from the sale of mt albert?

IE
(market cap at 2.03 less conservative sale proceeds)
/
(forecast NPAT plus additional lease expense from leaseback of studio one)

?

Ex-cash of $25m and sale proceeds of say $40m? the FY22 PE = 6.6x, FY23 might be more like 5-5.5x
Just too cheap now that its becoming clearer they aren't going belly up but are actually transforming etc.

[mistaTea]

Would love to get the updated Mistatea FCF distribution model.

Stop hiding under a rock like a lizard !

FY22 FCF looking to be more in the range of $70M-$80M now.

Assuming no detrimental market conditions in FY23 (i.e. more lockdowns etc) then FCF will increase again as the full annualised savings are realised.

So just from operations Sky will have around $100M (FCF + cash in the bank) or so of cash by the time they report FY results in October 2022.

Then add in the property sale of ~$50M and we are away laughing.

Market cap of $355M looking very low. Plenty of scope for quoted value to increase from here. If they do a buyback and divvy next year it will explode.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The timing is not entirely unexpected. They announced in their newsletter that a review would be completed early December. So completed Friday, review and approval by board Monday, announcement today. The wording around the property update suggests it is imminent and will happen within the next 1-2 weeks. They could not sit on such material information to announce both at the same time.

I am now adamant that the board has been focused on unlocking the true value of the business before seriously entertaining any takeover offer. The sale of the property is the final step and then it's game on.

[mistaTea]

The timing is not entirely unexpected. They announced in their newsletter that a review would be completed early December. So completed Friday, review and approval by board Monday, announcement today. The wording around the property update suggests it is imminent and will happen within the next 1-2 weeks. They could not sit on such material information to announce both at the same time.



Yes that is a fair point.

Good news today - the business is performing strongly, they are future proofing the business by making it leaner and meaner, only securing rights that really make a difference etc.

Interest in buying Sky still there, so this could also be a response to that. Or maybe not.

Only time will tell.

But regardless of merger/partnership/takeover possibilities...there is a lot for shareholders to be happy about here.

[Balance]

Stock is heading back to $1.70

Only the takeover will deliver true gainz.

Hope so - back to $1.50 will be even better.

And don’t really care about takeover.

[mikelee]

Wow! SKY should really learn that keeping the market informed could do wonders for the SP.

[snigmac]

The NBR article also indicates that the property sale document should be signed shortly and that advisors have recently been appointed for a new capital management strategy.

[mikelee]

A takeover won't necessary result in de-listing right? Would be good if shareholders can have a minimum $1 capital gain on top of a healthy dividend every year afterward. :)

[ILoveTheIRD]

What a crazy day this has been. This is turning out to be a really solid buy and hold. I have a feeling 2022 is going to be a good year for SKT.

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/127205205/sky-tv-says-programming-savings-dont-mean-viewers-getting-less

Good article.

Sky soon to have $155M - $175M cash available ($35M cash in bank + $70 to $80M FCF + $50M - $60M property sale).

Even if they are conservative and want to 'hang on' to $50M, they will still have around $100M to $120M free to distribute to shareholders.

$50M buyback or tax free capital return and then $50-$70M for a divvy. Even a 6% yield (2%+ more than NZME...) of the lower end divvy ($50M) would be a market cap of $800M ($4.57/share. If s/o have been reduced to 155M after a buyback then that would be $5.16/share.)

And if the market is still 'not quite convinced' and demand a divvy yield double what we have observed with NZME - then a $50M divvy would bring the market cap to $625M ($3.57/share. If s/o have been reduced to 155M after a buyback then that would be $4.03/share.)

Today has been a good day.

[Balance]

Well, here’s hoping everyone topped up at between $1.70 to $1.75.

Too easy.

[snigmac]

Wishing I bought more at $1.69.

[Rustycage]

MistaTea your numbers above are getting me irrationally excited, please stop 😂

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Hourly consolidation through the day, followed by price increasing on increasing volume (approx same volume in the first and last hour today) suggests we should be in for a good day tomorrow too.

[snigmac]

Don't worry, one time I sold out of a company and missed out on a profit of nzd2-3million... There will be another opportunity in the future.

Also sky wont be a company u can make such big gains in.

[nztx]

Speak for yourself bud, a few of us are BALLS DEEP and will be making dem gainz..

This forum is practically my therapy for my Skt disease!


A few around here appear to have got it bad - huh ? ;)

When is the multibagger forecast to happen with SKT ? ;)

[Shareguy]

It’s happening. Forbar upgrades to $3.00

Sky TV (SKT) provided a bullish market update, meaningfully upgrading its EBITDA and net profit expectations for FY22. The update was focussed on additional identified operational cost savings, but we consider the colour around revenues as well as cash generation to be at least as important. The key reasons for our upgrade is three fold; (1) after five years of declining core subscriber revenues we now expect modest growth; (2) strong control of non-programming costs in combination with improved line of sight on programming costs; and (3) adding a likely imminent sale of SKT's Mt Wellington property, we estimate that SKT will have a net cash position of >30% of its market cap at year end, implying a P/E below 5x excluding cash and a guided EV/EBITDA of ~1.5x, both of which are significantly below history. OUTPERFORM.

[Shareguy]

$1.80……….A massive upgrade

[winner69]

Is today a We Love Forbar Day

Rubbish them we don't agree with them but love them to death when we agree

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I don't particularly rate Forbar, however it's fantastic news if we are starting to get price targets like that. SHould sustain buying pressure. I picked up even more yesterday as this move has much much further to go over the next 3 months in my opinion.

[Muse]

$1.80……….A massive upgrade

Jarden upgrading from $1.80 to $2.42 as well.

[winner69]

I think your missing the point winner winner chicken dinner.

If the most pessimistic of investment bankers change their forecast by almost 100% to the upside, what does that indicate to us re market sentiment?

Love them, I do not.

Agree with you ….and hopefully sentiment will turn into bucks

Chart below …purple line with have a step up soon and no doubt the price line will follow ……hopefully this time the analysts are laggiinv the action

[biker]

I think your missing the point winner winner chicken dinner.

If the most pessimistic of investment bankers change their forecast by almost 100% to the upside, what does that indicate to us re market sentiment?

Love them, I do not.

Changed their forecast by 67%

[winner69]

Could be double bagger for me soon ….who would’ve thought of SKT

[Balance]

Jarden upgrading from $1.80 to $2.42 as well.

Morningstar has had a $3.00 valuation for months so the other brokers are simply catching up.

Always like Morningstar - great outfit when it comes to SKT. :D

[Sideshow Bob]

Agree with you ….and hopefully sentiment will turn into bucks

Chart below …purple line with have a step up soon and no doubt the price line will follow ……hopefully this time the analysts are laggiinv the action

Is that graph right? SKT wasn't trading at about $24 at the start of 2019.

Has it been ****ed up by the capital raise??

[Balance]

Is that graph right? SKT wasn't trading at about $24 at the start of 2019.

Has it been ****ed up by the capital raise??

Share consolidation.

SKt has been as high as $80 in the past? :eek2:

[sb9]

Stage set for another strong open....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.21 first trades

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Huge imbalance of Bids over offers amounts (at least on the simple market depth view I have)

13300

[Shareguy]

Craigs Reiterate Overweight rating $3.00
We estimate the FY22 run-rate for EPS guidance (excludes one-offs but includes annualised recurring savings) is approx. 29 cps, implying SKT is currently trading on a PE of close to 7x. This is lower than historical levels (c10x average), and in our view implies the market is not factoring the cost savings being retained, any further savings, or a stabilisation of the revenue base. This seems overly bearish in our view and we think upside risks currently outweigh the downside.
Price Target $3.00 (prev $2.30)
Our Price Target is based on a one-year forward PE of 10x. Key downside risks include satellite churn rates, rate of ARPU decline, cost of operational change, execution of technology path, and/or M&

[Joshuatree]

Blue Sky mining sorta day ehh,and golden weather ahead!

[mistaTea]

Hope you keep no more grudges with Pooman for rejecting the 23c takeover bid pre-share consolidation.

Well, I think a reminder to Sky that their shareholders are watching and some pressure has helped. They definitely are getting better at communicating with the market, and if the chatter on this forum (particularly from some of the larger shareholders) has helped with that then great.

Bowman looks set to redeem himself in 2022 - which is fantastic. The point made (by me anyway) about the rejection of the 23cps opening offer is not that he was necessarily 'wrong' for doing that...but that he needs to realise that he has put a floor under the price he now needs to get Sky to in order to justify the decision he made. Pure speculation here, but an opening offer of 23cps probably would have closed at 25/26cps.

So that is what Bowman now needs to get the SP above to justify not giving shareholders the opportunty to review and vote on the June offer.

The way things are going, and provided there are no major events (like lockdowns etc) then it seems that Bowman may blow well past $2.50/share and into the $3+ range. In which case, he absolutely made the right call.

[mistaTea]

I wonder if Osmium will want to start increasing their holding now.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/analysts-upgrade-sky-tv-hike-target-price/GDSGPT3ULEG3RK5BIT7J5ZHT5E/

[mistaTea]

Arie, your nemesis, has upped to $2.42, about your average now right, lol?

Yes, Suttering Stanley has put that as his mid-range target.

My 'on the table' number for Sky is $2.57.

So only 'down' about 11% right now! WHOPPEEEEE!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A real lack of institutional selling so far today, unlike yesterday. In fact it appears they are now buyers. Huge sentiment shift with analysts starting to no longer see Sky as a dog.

[bobestm]

Where do I track/look for institutional selling?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Time to put your shares on at $2.30 which you were very happy to get a week ago?

The institutions are looking for volume and it sounds like you can provide them with that volume.

I wouldn’t sell given Sophie said on the call yesterday that “there is still interest” in response to the takeover questions

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hence the conundrum

I guess you could sell a portion given there is obviously still a fair chance that management and/or the board once again screw the pooch.

“Dread it. Run from it. Destiny (pooman failing) arrives all the same” - Thanos.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I don't think it is a difficult decision.

You were elated with the 23cps offer and very angry with Sky for rejecting it.

The SP is now trading close enough to that level.

So the logical thing to do is sell.

If you choose to hang on because you are speculating that a deal is still going to come...well, then you need to put other measures in place for your mental wellbeing.

Well Oggs view IIRC was that the 23c offer would have kicked off the acquisition process which leads to a higher agreed price and potentially other higher offers from competing bidders.

[morphs]

Just got this in the Hobson Wealth daily update:
"Macquarie retain their Outperform recommendation and upgrade their target price to $4.71 to reflect the improved free cash flow outlook"

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.33…

(Chugga chugga choo choo!)

[Not The Chosen One]

Welcome to the pornhub forum! Maybe a Sky/pornhub merger?

[Quantitative Easing]

Welcome to the pornhub forum! Maybe a Sky/pornhub merger?


Lana Rhodes as COO of the new merged company.

[Muse]

Does Ogg get involved when it hits $2.50?

Lol oh dear

[mikelee]

Shame that I didn't have the ball to go all in when it's trading in the $1.7x range. :D

[mistaTea]

Does Ogg get involved when it hits $2.50?

If it hits $3 I will allow missusTea to take Ogg's virgnity, sure.

[Muse]

...as long as Sophie isn't top of mind

Or pooman…

[Balance]

So as it is turning out, it really did not matter whether you bought at $2.10, $1.85 or $1.68 - you just have to be there when the action starts.

[sb9]

So as it is turning out, it really did not matter whether you bought at $2.10, $1.85 or $1.68 - you just have to be there when the action starts.

Like at least a day before y'day. Seems like an ever insatiable demand keeps propping up from Instos....

[Balance]

Like at least a day before y'day. Seems like an ever insatiable demand keeps propping up from Instos....

SKT is now on an earnings and valuation upgrade cycle.

Downgrades come in 3s but upgrades come in a series. Who knows how far the upgrades will take Sky - and institutions do not like to miss out.

[mikelee]

SKY is the limit huh? :cool:

[mistaTea]

If Orcon, PE or anyone else wants to buy Sky...

The smart thing to do would be to buy Sky before Feb (when we expect Bowman will confirm a buyback of some sort).

As I mentioned in a previous post, Sky is on track to have $155M to $175M cash by June 30 2022 ($35M in the bank + $70M to $80M FCF + $50M to $60M campus sale).

That cash would be very useful to a player like Orcon/2D as they could use it to fast track their own 5G ambitions.

So long as they don't try to low ball Sky again, by trying to take advantage of a SP that is very low relative to earning power...a deal could yet be done.

I think they would need to be talking in the realm of a 50% premium to the current SP though to have a chance. Otherwise, shareholders are better off just waiting for the buyback/divvy which will push the SP beyond $3 anyway.

A 50% premium would be $612M ($3.50/share). That would need to be higher again if a multi-bid situation unfolds.

But a purchase price of $612M or so is still a great deal for a business like Orcon, given the $155M - $175M cash that comes with it (and no debt to pay off). In other words, at that price they would effectively be getting Sky for $437M - $457M.

That is not a bad price at all for a business with 1M customer relationships, earnings of ~$50M a year (with scope for further growth) and compliments their telco services. Over time Sky would be worth significantly more than ~$450M to a business like Orcon...when you think of the synergies, growth opportunities and how Sky would be a critical asset for an emerging telco to take on Spark and Vodafone...it can be shown that Sky TV is 'worth' well in excess of $1 Billion dollars to them.

So if interest in Sky has become even stronger as of late with the various possible suitors, the Board and Management are playing this well. Show the very real progress Sky has made, restore market confidence, get the SP up to a value that is more representitive of Sky's prospects and then have a much stronger hand to negotiate.

[winner69]

Jeez - ads on the Ashes coverage. Don't like that

Suppose tied in with the feed they get from Australia

On bright side additional advertising revenue

[mistaTea]

Upward movement seems to have been stalled...

Probably because Ogg is selling his shares...

[Balance]

Upward movement seems to have been stalled...

Probably because Ogg is selling his shares...

That’s good.

Need to get the institutions in and set for the next leg up.

[Sideshow Bob]

Jeez - ads on the Ashes coverage. Don't like that

Suppose tied in with the feed they get from Australia

On bright side additional advertising revenue

There was an ad after the 1st ball of the series!!

Burns getting his peg ripped out by Starc!! :eek2::t_up:;)

[sb9]

Its going to be fascinating last half hour, any pull back during the day was matched by even higher bounce.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If we maintain strength into the close then we should see another gap up tomorrow. Institutional money is clearly accumulating at these levels and I'd expect will continue to do so at higher levels.

[Balance]

If we maintain strength into the close then we should see another gap up tomorrow. Institutional money is clearly accumulating at these levels and I'd expect will continue to do so at higher levels.

Exactly what is required (institutional buying) to push the stock towards $3.00 - they need to get set at a reasonable price and then, they will incrementally add to their position. Bear in mind that Sky is a NZ50 index stock so institutions cannot afford to be underweight when the stock is running higher.

Ogg has gone quiet so hopefully, he has lightened up for his own sanity & help to provide some stock to the institutions.

[uravgtrader]

WooHoo! I am finally in the green today after *checks notes*... 2 and a half years! 😄

[curious zebra]

Not quite there yet, but def heading in the right direction - sure has been a long haul!

[sb9]

Good on ya Ogg, nothing wrong with cashing out and taking handsome profits.

[LEMON]

All the best Ogg, you held the fort many a times, cheers

[ados_nz]

I've never been more bullish now

[ados_nz]

I'll take the ban in memory of Ogg

https://tenor.com/IAoz.gif

[nztx]

Gee .. what thread will OGG now show up to grace us with pearly wisdoms in next ? ;)

[Rustycage]

Congrats on the gains Ogg, hope you’re enjoying a celebratory beverage

[JohnnyTheHorse]

If true, very bullish for a gap up continuation tomorrow.

[Baa_Baa]

If true, very bullish for a gap up continuation tomorrow.

The volume suggests a 'cap' would've lasted only a short while, see the chart, Bid was too large on the news and was overwhelming at open, taking up all Asks reducing gradually into the close, except for that brief 'cap' period.

Let's call that the Oggnomaly, where an otherwise sane entry on a recovery transformation strategy takes a bit longer to unfold, is clouded in absurd theories, but is now indeed unfolding, just beginning.

But the minute it looks like it is happening; if green, bail and take the gains, breath a sigh of relief. Ok, not.

[nztx]

I'm concerned for our good friend Ogg .. I fear that he may have sold up too early
& may be now missing out on the best of the spoils :)

[winner69]

I'm concerned for our good friend Ogg .. I fear that he may have sold up too early
& may be now missing out on the best of the spoils :)

Made ‘six figures’ he said ….thought he was in the millions

Whatever good on her …a profit is a profit

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I will miss the Oggnostic missives. Congrats on getting out in the green.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I'm concerned for our good friend Ogg .. I fear that he may have sold up too early
& may be now missing out on the best of the spoils :)

More than likely. There's nothing more important than your mental capital however.

[Rawz]

A profit is a profit. A lot of shoulda woulda coulda when picking entries and exits. Well done to Ogg. Hopefully he picks another horse to cheer about

[mistaTea]

A profit is a profit. A lot of shoulda woulda coulda when picking entries and exits. Well done to Ogg. Hopefully he picks another horse to cheer about

Agreed.

Well done Ogg - I think you have made a sensible trade her, given your objectives and the toll owning a piece of Sky was having on you.

You have made the right decision I think - regardless of what the SP does from here on out.

[Stranger_Danger]

Isn't life a funny thing. I remember sparring with Ogg and others many, many pages back in this thread about what a dog SKT was and the difficulty in trying to sell things that are now easier to get for free.

I continue to watch whatever I want, from anywhere, without paying a cent and will never again be a Sky subscriber.

I bought a meaningful amount of SKT on Tuesday and a smaller amount yesterday (including some from Ogg, by the sounds of it) so for the near future, rather than me coming into this thread to laugh at Ogg...they can come into this thread to laugh at me!

I remain very negative on SKT on a 5-10 year view. The local cable aggregator model is toast, and I suspect the local streamer model isn't going to be much better.

However, the balance sheet has been completely repaired - by other people - and without capital management they will have a good amount of the market cap in cash by the end of next year.

One "advantage" of how badly run and sleepy this company has been is there is plenty of fat to cut if they look for it, and the early signs suggest that they will.

I suspect that the next 6-12 months are not going to be pretty for long duration stocks and bonds. Anything that you pay an insane price for and are asked to close your eyes for 10 years and assume sugar plum fairies at the end is likely to struggle.

In some ways, SKT is the ultimate short duration stock. If I close my eyes for 10 years, I see oblivion at the end, so at least there is no confusion.

In the shorter term, while all the consultants hanging around doesn't say great things about management, it does increase the odds some sort of capital management is going to occur. SKT is likely to produce real cash for a while, in an environment where a lot of companies won't, and in an environment where this trait will suddenly be valued by the market more than it has been in recent times. This can be purchased at a relatively low price which - correctly - discounts the awful longer term outlook the company has.

Unless markets totally implode (which can never be ruled out) Foxtel will likely float on higher multiples than SKT with a prospectus that includes a plan to add a million subscribers over several years. They could tick that box pretty easily with a takeover of SKT. My thesis does not depend on a takeover, but one is very possible.

Summary : If you see me in here in two years time talking about bottom drawers, and about how pay TV is making a comeback, I've lost my mind and you can book me into the funny farm. I do see a shorter period ahead, after massive pain dealt out to shareholders, where the stock and to a lesser extent the company is likely to do the things (by accident and by consultant) that just happen to be of above average attractiveness to the market, given the dynamics likely to be in place at that time.

[snigmac]

With a forecasted dividend of 10c per share, even a stalling of price gains after $3 would be fine.

[Vitamin_A]

Forgetting about the cash, taking an ultra conservative EV/EBITDA multiple and the low end of the forecast EBITDA range you get $2.60 per share. You then add in the cash and you get a 'conservative' number heading towards $4.00 per share. Then consider the ongoing cash generating and dividend policy and you have a stock that even after this run is super dooper cheap.

[mistaTea]

Isn't life a funny thing. I remember sparring with Ogg and others many, many pages back in this thread about what a dog SKT was and the difficulty in trying to sell things that are now easier to get for free.

I continue to watch whatever I want, from anywhere, without paying a cent and will never again be a Sky subscriber.

I bought a meaningful amount of SKT on Tuesday and a smaller amount yesterday (including some from Ogg, by the sounds of it) so for the near future, rather than me coming into this thread to laugh at Ogg...they can come into this thread to laugh at me!

I remain very negative on SKT on a 5-10 year view. The local cable aggregator model is toast, and I suspect the local streamer model isn't going to be much better.

However, the balance sheet has been completely repaired - by other people - and without capital management they will have a good amount of the market cap in cash by the end of next year.

One "advantage" of how badly run and sleepy this company has been is there is plenty of fat to cut if they look for it, and the early signs suggest that they will.

I suspect that the next 6-12 months are not going to be pretty for long duration stocks and bonds. Anything that you pay an insane price for and are asked to close your eyes for 10 years and assume sugar plum fairies at the end is likely to struggle.

In some ways, SKT is the ultimate short duration stock. If I close my eyes for 10 years, I see oblivion at the end, so at least there is no confusion.

In the shorter term, while all the consultants hanging around doesn't say great things about management, it does increase the odds some sort of capital management is going to occur. SKT is likely to produce real cash for a while, in an environment where a lot of companies won't, and in an environment where this trait will suddenly be valued by the market more than it has been in recent times. This can be purchased at a relatively low price which - correctly - discounts the awful longer term outlook the company has.

Unless markets totally implode (which can never be ruled out) Foxtel will likely float on higher multiples than SKT with a prospectus that includes a plan to add a million subscribers over several years. They could tick that box pretty easily with a takeover of SKT. My thesis does not depend on a takeover, but one is very possible.

Summary : If you see me in here in two years time talking about bottom drawers, and about how pay TV is making a comeback, I've lost my mind and you can book me into the funny farm. I do see a shorter period ahead, after massive pain dealt out to shareholders, where the stock and to a lesser extent the company is likely to do the things (by accident and by consultant) that just happen to be of above average attractiveness to the market, given the dynamics likely to be in place at that time.

A reasoned post - and many will share your view I am sure.

I should point out though that everyone has been writing Sky off since the 1990's. It is always 'different this time' and Sky will definitely be bust within a few years because of x, y and z...

Over the last couple of years the market has shared this view and Sky has been priced as though it will be bankrupt within 5 years. That is despite continuing to produce profit and show the ability to secure important content rights.

Back in the 1990's everyone thought that the 'new fangled' satellite techology was going to kill Sky TV. Don't forget, they started off with a three channel UHF service.

But what happened? Well, Sky pivoted and utilised this new technology for themselves - and very successfully too. I remember some of the old letters from John Fellet where he mused that it often struck him as odd at the time that everyone thought that satellite technology would be the end of Sky...but nobody seemed to consider that Sky would just use the new technology. He took the business over time from losing $1M a week to making a profit of $1M a week.

Is it really different this time? I don't think so - Sky will leverage streaming technology, but they don't have to turn the satellites off over night. They have capacity to evolve to streaming...and the new STB will be a key piece of technology that bridges that gap. Will we get to the point where Sky don't use satellites at all and just stream everything? Possibly, but I think that is a big assumption.

And, ultimately, I reject the notion that the 'cable aggregator' model is totally dead. Content aggregation is still the best way to get maximum high quality content to consumers at the best price (we can argue what constitutes a good price, but aggregation has always allowed consumers to get a bundle of content for much cheaper than if they were to try subscribe to each service individually). As Sky offer new services like broadband (and eventually mobile) then the content aggregation bundles become even more consumer friendly in that they get greater discounts with the more services they add.

So though I do think you make some good points, I have a very different view on Sky's long term prospects. I would classify Sky as a 'forever' company...and Sky will continue to evolve and pivot as things change in the industry.

For example, I believe that it is inevitable that Sky become a fully fledged telco before long. Irrespective of whether they end up merging with Foxtel or not.

[Stranger_Danger]

mistaTea,

You may end up correct on every potential positive, but to me it doesn't really matter. If the business surprises to the upside, especially in the longer term, good for them.

To me, the key point is that I am able to make a strong value case for the stock using NEGATIVE assumptions about the long term business. This is no guarantee of anything, of course, but it is the sort of opportunity I look for.

The less I need to believe management, or make positive assumptions, or cross my fingers, the better things are for me.

[mistaTea]

mistaTea,

You may end up correct on every potential positive, but to me it doesn't really matter. If the business surprises to the upside, especially in the longer term, good for them.

To me, the key point is that I am able to make a strong value case for the stock using NEGATIVE assumptions about the long term business. This is no guarantee of anything, of course, but it is the sort of opportunity I look for.

The less I need to believe management, or make positive assumptions, or cross my fingers, the better things are for me.

I agree with you 100%...and we, as investors, always need to be able to write the NEGATIVE case as well as the POSITIVE case. In fact, writing the negative case is usually more important...and one has to do that with intellectual integrity.

It does not stop there though...it is very easy to write down a list of both negative and posotive assumptions.

Where the skill comes in is establishing in your own mind, based on whatever framework you use...how likely each outcome is.

I think that the worst case scenario where Sky lose all of their key rights to Spark and others and/or the majority of consumers pirate their content to cut Sky out of the equation is low. I could be wrong about that in time.

I think that we will find that Sky do let go of more rights over time if Spark Sport does not fold, but the business will hang on to key rights (sometimes on a co-exclusive basis) and remain FCF positive for the foreseeable future. This to be seems much more likely, but I could be wrong.

I believe Sky will make a move to get more scale (becoming a telco, merging with someone like Foxtel or both). Though I could be wrong about that.

My view though has always been that, on the balance of probabilities (so far as I am able to assess them) Sky is much more likely to succeed over time than fail.

To me, it is not wise from an investment perspective to buy a portion of a business that you feel has incredibly grim long term prospects but are essentially banking on some positive price action in the short term. You may do well, but if the market turns against you in the short term and your Business Case for owning Sky TV is not rock solid you will more likely get caught not wearing any pants when the tide goes out.

[Stranger_Danger]

To me, it is not wise from an investment perspective to buy a portion of a business that you feel has incredibly grim long term prospects but are essentially banking on some positive price action in the short term. You may do well, but if the market turns against you in the short term your your Business Case for owning Sky TV is not rock solid you will more likely get caught with not wearing any pants when the tide goes out.

I don't want my business case to be rock solid, I want it to be flexible, with eyes wide open, and willing to react rationally to changes.

If the tide goes out and I'm not wearing pants, my goal will be to get the hell off the beach before too many people see me naked. The more "rock solid" I am, the less likely this is.

[mistaTea]

I don't want my business case to be rock solid, I want it to be flexible, with eyes wide open, and willing to react rationally to changes.

If the tide goes out and I'm not wearing pants, my goal will be to get the hell off the beach before too many people see me naked. The more "rock solid" I am, the less likely this is.

Well, no...

If you are wearing pants you don't need to run anywhere...and because of your deep knowledge of how tides work you understand the difference between an event that is nothing to worry about (i.e. the tide has gone out as expected, and will almost certainly come back in...as expected) versus...this is fundamentally different, and it looks like a tsunami is coming in a few hours...

Only by having a 'rock solid' understanding of the Business Case can you make intelligent decisions when you observe changes (so you can assess whether they are fluctuations that are no real cause for concern, or otherwise).

[ba9]

[QUOTE=Ogg;930878]I completely sold out today.


Congratulations Ogg. You really did it. Didn't think you would leave, after holding out for so long.

I have to be honest, there were lots of times, i wanted to sellout and move on. Both you and MT, somehow kept me from doing that. And thank you, i am now back in green.

Best of luck :)

[mistaTea]

Both you and MT, somehow kept me from doing that. And thank you, i am now back in green.



Nice one mate.

I just need a market cap of $450M before I head into the green. Only ~$30M away.

Looking forward to the capital return and dividends.

[Joshuatree]

WooHoo! I am finally in the green today after *checks notes*... 2 and a half years! 😄

I've had trades that have turned into investments too,:)here's to more green ahead ehh.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/jarden-brief-sky-tv-surge-continues/VMZMAE2DU5Y3FHRDRBLL3G6V5Q/

[Shareguy]

Well I’m still holding and showing a large profit as entered after CR. Think much more upside to come, especially with property sale.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.42! Next stop $2.50!

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127230259/vodafone-to-withdraw-from-television-market-by-axing-vodafonetv

And it’s bye bye to Vodafone TV.

[mistaTea]

VTV is a dog of a platform and they never did enhance it in a way that made it user friendly. They are shutting the service down next year. Most of those that subscribed to the SKY TV channels will likely subscribe to the new STB next year - great news for Sky.

Though one would think that this also cements the notion that Vodafone are not looking to get into the Pay TV space by having another crack at merging with Sky. I am sure they are interested in getting a wholesale Mobile deal with Sky, but that is probably as far as that relationship is likely to go now. I could be wrong about that.

****************

Kia ora


Four years ago, we set out to create a powerful entertainment solution with your favourite apps and content all in one place at an affordable price. VodafoneTV has brought entertainment to so many homes over these years. However due to the changing content landscape, VodafoneTV will close on 30 September 2022.

What do you need to do now? Absolutely nothing! There’s plenty of time left for you to enjoy everything your VodafoneTV has to offer. We’ll be back in touch to guide you through the closure and share advice on alternative solutions to access the content you currently enjoy on VodafoneTV (e.g. Smart TVs, Chromecast, Freeview).


VodafoneTV will continue to work as it does now until the end of September 2022, so you'll have plenty of time to choose a new entertainment solution that best suits you.


You may also be entitled to a refund depending on when you purchased and activated your VodafoneTV - if this is the case, we'll be in touch in the next few months. Please don’t go back to the retail store you purchased your VodafoneTV from, as they’ll be unable to help you. We’ll be handling all parts of this process directly with you.


You’ll receive lots more info from us about this change over the next few months, if you have any questions in the meantime please check www.vodafone.co.nz/tv (http://www.vodafone.co.nz/tv) for FAQs and regular updates.


Thank you for your ongoing support and for being part of VodafoneTV.

Ngā mihi
Your team at Vodafone

[mikelee]

Another competitor out of the way, gotta be good for SKY.
So it appears to me that most people who bought when the share was under $2 held on to it instead of cashing in for a quick profit, else the upward momentum would probably have slowed by now.
I'm personally more than happy to wait till after the property sales and the return of dividend before making my next move. :cool:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

What a week! Now lets get the property sale announced tomorrow and get the trifecta!

[mistaTea]

Another competitor out of the way, gotta be good for SKY.


Competitor in the sense that Sky would only collect wholesale rates for VTV Sky TV channel subs...so it did compete with MYSKY.

But really they were a business partner. An attempt at offering a streaming only box...because every arm chair commentator says satellite is dead etc etc.

Well, actually...VTV never got large numbers...and there were many cases where people switched from Sky to VTV only to regret it and resubscribe to MySky.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Competitor in the sense that Sky would only collect wholesale rates for VTV Sky TV channel subs...so it did compete with MYSKY.

But really they were a business partner. An attempt at offering a streaming only box...because every arm chair commentator says satellite is dead etc etc.

Well, actually...VTV never got large numbers...and there were many cases where people switched from Sky to VTV only to regret it and resubscribe to MySky.

100,000 seems like a large number to me…

[mistaTea]

100,000 seems like a large number to me…

Not really.

100K total boxes sold or gifted as part of a broadband bundle...but only a small fraction subscribed to Sky channels (which would enable Vodafone to clip the ticket ongoing)

[mistaTea]

Not really.

100K total boxes sold...but only a small fraction subscribed to Sky channels (which would enable Vodafone to clip the ticket ongoing)

And when you consider that old school MYSKY still has 500K+ subs...it is pretty p1ss poor that the 'new generation' TV experience could not even get 1 fifth of Sky's numbers...

[winner69]

Well I’m still holding and showing a large profit as entered after CR. Think much more upside to come, especially with property sale.

Good feeling having a double bagger (well almost) …..and maybe soon a triple bagger

[mistaTea]

.and maybe soon a triple bagger

Don't TEASE me like that!

[LoungeLizzard]

The SKY thread theme tune has gone from "Tragedy" to "Good Vibrations" in just three days!

Seriously, great news all round and congrats to those, including Ogg, who stayed the course and reaped the rewards. Tempting to get out whilst the going is good, but I'll stick around, as continued buying is indicative that most people and insets think there's more good news coming.

And although the Sky board haven't made life easy over the years - and could have done a much better job in managing the transition - they do seem to have turned the corner and, begrudgingly, I have to give them credit for that. Just don't stuff it up or we'll bring back Ogg to haunt you!

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/384426

VTV 'retransmission' subs to be classified as STB customers after they are migrated to Sky.

So we will actually see a drop in retrospective ARPU for both streaming and STB (though total revenue unchanged).

Moving forward though, we will get more revenue from each sub as we no longer have to pay Vodafone a commission.

Good for Sky...and the removal of VTV helps further cement Sky's proposition of being the preferred platform to use for content aggregation needs.

Plus there will be other OPEX costs Sky elimintate from their systems from having to support the feed to the VTV box etc.

[RTM]

Another competitor out of the way, gotta be good for SKY.
So it appears to me that most people who bought when the share was under $2 held on to it instead of cashing in for a quick profit, else the upward momentum would probably have slowed by now.
I'm personally more than happy to wait till after the property sales and the return of dividend before making my next move. :cool:

Don’t suppose Vodafone will need VTV once Infratil buy SKY.

[mistaTea]

Don’t suppose Vodafone will need VTV once Infratil buy SKY.

Ha! Good one!

[mistaTea]

Vodafone must also rate the new Sky STB if they have decided to pull the pin now.

Clearly their service was struggling, and the new Sky product would have been the final nail in the coffin I think.

[mistaTea]

The other thing for us all to ponder...

With Vodafone making the call to get out of their loss making service (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vodafonetv-being-switched-off-in-september-next-year-sky-to-pick-up-crumbs/ZQMSI5BDWMCBARLKUJXIVWK46E/)...so that they can focus their energy and resources on core telco competencies...

Will Spark follow suit before long?

Clearly Spark Sport has not become the overwhelming success they thought it would...they have low subscriber numbers, customers aren't particularly pleased having cricket rights split between two subscriptions etc.

And we see the telcos battling it out in the 5G space, which requires an enormous amount of time and investment.

So, could Vodafone getting out of Pay TV be a precursor to Spark doing the same thing?

That alone would launch the Sky SP God knows how high.

[biker]

The other thing for us all to ponder...

With Vodafone making the call to get out of their loss making service (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/vodafonetv-being-switched-off-in-september-next-year-sky-to-pick-up-crumbs/ZQMSI5BDWMCBARLKUJXIVWK46E/)...so that they can focus their energy and resources on core telco competencies...

Will Spark follow suit before long?

Clearly Spark Sport has not become the overwhelming success they thought it would...they have low subscriber numbers, customers aren't particularly pleased having cricket rights split between two subscriptions etc.

And we see the telcos battling it out in the 5G space, which requires an enormous amount of time and investment.

So, could Vodafone getting out of Pay TV be a precursor to Spark doing the same thing?

That alone would launch the Sky SP God knows how high.

I suppose spark could sell the rights they hold, to SKY? ( severely discounted of course )

[mistaTea]

I suppose spark could sell the rights they hold, to SKY? ( severely discounted of course )

That would make the most sense I think, yes.

And just decomisison their platform - Sky don't need it. SSN is very good.

[Jay]

That would make the most sense I think, yes.

And just decomisison their platform - Sky don't need it. SSN is very good.

Agree, but what would sky charge for it or would just roll into the existing sport package price - i.e no change and a saving of $20 or so for those that have both - like me - only for the WRC and F1 on the whole

[mistaTea]

Agree, but what would sky charge for it or would just roll into the existing sport package price - i.e no change and a saving of $20 or so for those that have both - like me - only for the WRC and F1 on the whole

If this scenario were to present, this is what Sky would need to assess.

If they can get the rights to the cricket, EPL etc for a bargain...is it worth just absorbing those costs into the existing Sport package price to eliminate a competitor?

Or perhaps they lift their sports sub at the same time. They have hinted in the past that they have not raised the sport package price for a while, so maybe sport rises to $35/month.

Cricket fans etc still better off because right now the cheapest way to stream all cricket is $49.99/month to get the SS/SSN bundle deal.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think they would role nz cricket into the main sport bundle, but other rights might be worth splitting into a new niche extra sport package, or maybe going the “non-exclusive” route to some degree.

[mistaTea]

Poor Ogg - Sky is just headquartered in the wrong country!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/australia-sets-ma-record-as-dealmakers-revel-in-rebound/C3NLBCIAWB2FURQGOVCOWZ6MTM/

[Jay]

If this scenario were to present, this is what Sky would need to assess.

If they can get the rights to the cricket, EPL etc for a bargain...is it worth just absorbing those costs into the existing Sport package price to eliminate a competitor?

Or perhaps they lift their sports sub at the same time. They have hinted in the past that they have not raised the sport package price for a while, so maybe sport rises to $35/month.

Cricket fans etc still better off because right now the cheapest way to stream all cricket is $49.99/month to get the SS/SSN bundle deal.

You could argue that when they lost Cricket, F1, WRC etc etc they did not reduce the price either -
Would prefer the cricket all in one place

Though they still have all these new bundles/prices on the way at some point next year

[mistaTea]

You could argue that when they lost Cricket, F1, WRC etc etc they did not reduce the price either -
Would prefer the cricket all in one place



Yes that is true...but also consider that the 'savings' they made on cricket, F1 have been spent on the higher cost of NZR etc.

If they just purchased all of the rights from Spark (even at a discount) there would have to be some thinking around whether the entire additional cost could be absorbed into the current pricing model or not.

If Spark do end up getting out of Pay TV I don't think it will be any time soon. One would think that Jolie has paused for thought after the Vodafone update - she has certainly seemed a lot less bullish on Pay TV than her predecessor Simon.

But shutting down Spark Sport would be very embarassing for them, and it is not nearly as easy for them to extract themselves like Vodafone have. Vodafone never had to deal with complex and expensive content rights. All they have to do is cancel their agreement with Sky (which will be super easy because Sky would rather have the VTV Sky subs direct, so no challenge there).

On the other hand, I would say that things are even worse for Spark than Vodafone in terms of ROI. VTV offered a streaming only platform where you could have 'amost' everything in one place...and if you had Vodafone broadband you would get discounts on your Sky sub etc...and it was a disaster.

Spark Sport has cost way more money than VTV, and does not appear to have anywhere near the subs needed to get anywhere near break even. Broadband/Mobile market share does not seem to have changed much either, so I don't think Spark Sport has been a compelling loss leader. At the end of the day, you only save $5/month on Spark Sport if you shift your internet to them - big whoop.

If Spark do stick it out, hoping they get an opportunity to take over the rugby rights from 2026...well, that is a long wait - and I also wonder if there are some potential issues here.

Think back to RWC...Spark had promised the other telcos that they would offer them wholesale rates. They stalled and delayed, and then just before the tournament they launched their pricing offer for the other telcos. It was far from what you would consider 'wholesale' and the other telcos were rightly aggrieved. They had spent a chunk of cash upgrading their networks to support the streaming of the RWC and then got a slap in the face by Spark.

Well, let's just say Spark stuck it out and then did win the rugby...I wonder if there are potential competition issues here. The NZR contract could be considered content of national significance. If Spark used that to offer heavy discounts and undercut the other telcos, gain disproportionate market share etc I think there is an argument for the Comcom to get involved. To avoid this, they would have to offer genuine wholesale deals to all of the other telcos (and Sky is now considered a telco, given we have to pay the infrastructure levy now).
But if they are forced to offer Spark Sport at a little over cost to their competitors then I think it raises more questions as to whether it is even worth their while to pay $100M a year to secure the rights and incur the aditional costs around broadcasting.

Let's watch this space.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes that is true...but also consider that the 'savings' they made on cricket, F1 have been spent on the higher cost of NZR etc.

If they just purchased all of the rights from Spark (even at a discount) there would have to be some thinking around whether the entire additional cost could be absorbed into the current pricing model or not.

If Spark do end up getting out of Pay TV I don't think it will be any time soon. One would think that Jolie has paused for thought after the Vodafone update - she has certainly seemed a lot less bullish on Pay TV than her predecessor Simon.

But shutting down Spark Sport would be very embarassing for them, and it is not nearly as easy for them to extract themselves like Vodafone have. Vodafone never had to deal with complex and expensive content rights. All they have to do is cancel their agreement with Sky (which will be super easy because Sky would rather have the VTV Sky subs direct, so no challenge there).

On the other hand, I would say that things are even worse for Spark than Vodafone in terms of ROI. VTV offered a streaming only platform where you could have 'amost' everything in one place...and if you had Vodafone broadband you would get discounts on your Sky sub etc...and it was a disaster.

Spark Sport has cost way more money than VTV, and does not appear to have anywhere near the subs needed to get anywhere near break even. Broadband/Mobile market share does not seem to have changed much either, so I don't think Spark Sport has been a compelling loss leader. At the end of the day, you only save $5/month on Spark Sport if you shift your internet to them - big whoop.

If Spark do stick it out, hoping they get an opportunity to take over the rugby rights from 2026...well, that is a long wait - and I also wonder if there are some potential issues here.

Think back to RWC...Spark had promised the other telcos that they would offer them wholesale rates. They stalled and delayed, and then just before the tournament they launched their pricing offer for the other telcos. It was far from what you would consider 'wholesale' and the other telcos were rightly aggrieved. They had spent a chunk of cash upgrading their networks to support the streaming of the RWC and then got a slap in the face by Spark.

Well, let's just say Spark stuck it out and then did win the rugby...I wonder if there are potential competition issues here. The NZR contract could be considered content of national significance. If Spark used that to offer heavy discounts and undercut the other telcos, gain disproportionate market share etc I think there is an argument for the Comcom to get involved. To avoid this, they would have to offer genuine wholesale deals to all of the other telcos (and Sky is now considered a telco, given we have to pay the infrastructure levy now).
But if they are forced to offer Spark Sport at a little over cost to their competitors then I think it raises more questions as to whether it is even worth their while to pay $100M a year to secure the rights and incur the aditional costs around broadcasting.

Let's watch this space.

I think then one has to consider if Sky would actually be allowed to purchase Spark Sport and/or its content rights due to Comcom concerns. It seems doubtful that comcom would allow the sport market to effectively go back to a monopoly.

I think the only way Sky gets NZ cricket rights back is when NZ cricket offers the rights again (either at the end of the current contract with Spark, or by Spark/NZ cricket mutually agreeing to end their contract early).

Alternatively nothing stopping Spark from offering Sky reseller rights by offering Spark Sport content within SkySport Now, or through a SkyBox linear channel. Even Pay Per View options might be good.

[mistaTea]

I think then one has to consider if Sky would actually be allowed to purchase Spark Sport and/or its content rights due to Comcom concerns. It seems doubtful that comcom would allow the sport market to effectively go back to a monopoly.

I think the only way Sky gets NZ cricket rights back is when NZ cricket offers the rights again (either at the end of the current contract with Spark, or by Spark/NZ cricket mutually agreeing to end their contract early).

Alternatively nothing stopping Spark from offering Sky reseller rights by offering Spark Sport content within SkySport Now, or through a SkyBox linear channel.

No I don't think it is quite the same thing.

Sky TV already offer wholesale rates for both NEON and Sky Sport NOW. Spark could close down their service, negotiate a transition to Sky and still offer their customers SSN at a discount to upsell their broadband/mobile. As could all of the other telcos if they want to do the same deal with Sky.

I think the trickier part for Sky is if they ever decided to have another crack at being a full blown telco themselves (which would most likely happen in some kind of M&A event). If Spark Sport still exists, then this would be easier. If Jolie cancels SS in part as a defensive move, then it would make things less straightforward for Sky.

Sky would need to show that they have genuine wholesale rates for all of their content offerings, and that those wholesale rates are standardised - so the playing field is levelled.

I think this is what ultimately made the Comcom go against Sky last time...they had various wholesale deals available at the time, and were certainly open to it...but each contract they had with the other parties seemed to have bespoke terms etc. Not good enough to convince Comcom at the time.

But if Comcom could be satisfied that genuine and standard wholesale rates are available to all, then it becomes much more straightfoward.

Of course, it also limits Sky's ability to win disproportionate amounts of market share from the other telcos, but it also helps diversify revenue streams and get their product into the maximum number of kiwi homes.

[snigmac]

Great to see the $2.4 mark holding up without information on the property sale.

[mistaTea]

Great to see the $2.4 mark holding up without information on the property sale.

Should see more of "dem gainz" when the property sale is confirmed.

It 'should' already be priced in because it has been all but confirmed by the analysts that the sale price will be in the $50M-$60M range.

But it will be another good news story for Sky heading into the Xmas break.

And then its a short wait until Feb 24 where the next catalyst will happen - buybacks and dividend announcement. That is when we should see another significant re-rate, depending entirely on what their plan is for the considerable amount of funds they have to play with.

At these levels I would prefer a larger buyback and smaller dividend.

Once the SP hits, say, $3 or so then that probably flips the other way. Give me the tax free return until it no longer makes sense. Much bigger dividend to look forward to in 2023 that way.

[mikelee]

Yes, and reasonable volume too.
Let's hope Sophie have a good X-mas in store for all shareholders. :t_up:

[mistaTea]

Yes, and reasonable volume too.
Let's hope Sophie have a good X-mas in store for all shareholders. :t_up:

Oh yes, I think we all want to know what Santa (Bowman) has in his sac for us...

[snigmac]

I envisage and hope this hits $3 in Feb 2022. Will need more positive news (like a concrete dividend announcement to push this higher past $3).

[mistaTea]

I envisage and hope this hits $3 in Feb 2022. .

Very realistic.

And that would be a market cap of only $525M. Depending on the capital return policy...if they do elect an on market buyback...and if they managed to reduce s/o to 160M then all things being equal a $525M market cap would be $3.28/share.

With bigger per share dividends still to come.

[pierre]

Oh yes, I think we all want to know what Santa (Bowman) has in his sac for us...

Hmmm - can I just say I think I'd prefer to know what he has in his sack! :ohmy:

[mistaTea]

Hmmm - can I just say I think I'd prefer to know what he has in his sack! :ohmy:

Speak for yourself mate. Come Feb 24 I want the Money Shot.

[Not The Chosen One]

Very realistic.

And that would be a market cap of only $525M. Depending on the capital return policy...if they do elect an on market buyback...and if they managed to reduce s/o to 160M then all things being equal a $525M market cap would be $3.28/share.

With bigger per share dividends still to come.

I'm surprised Ogg sold when he did or maybe he's playing everyone and hasn't sold anything, especially with the almost guaranteed postive news on the horizon. Maybe the "almost" part wasn't enough to keep him in the game.

I was down 80% at my worst with SKT but am up 40% with no intention of selling for a while yet

[mistaTea]

I'm surprised Ogg sold when he did or maybe he's playing everyone and hasn't sold anything, especially with the almost guaranteed postive news on the horizon. Maybe the "almost" part wasn't enough to keep him in the game.

I was down 80% at my worst with SKT but am up 40% with no intention of selling for a while yet

No he sold alright - and I think he needed to so that he could preserve his sanity. Owning this stock did a number on him over the last 18 months.

Hopefully he is feeling Zen - a 6 figure realised gain is nothing to sneeze at.

But if I know Ogg, the continually rising SP since he sold out will really be chapping his arse right now.

[Balance]

No he sold alright - and I think he needed to so that he could preserve his sanity. Owning this stock did a number on him over the last 18 months.

Hopefully he is feeling Zen - a 6 figure realised gain is nothing to sneeze at.

But if I know Ogg, the continually rising SP since he sold out will really be chapping his arse right now.

Ogg watched SKT sp by the second, from when the market opened to when it closed.

Every 1c movement on the way up or on the way down was a source of emotive upheaval for him - you could see it in his postings.

So it is best for his sanity that he is out and it is best as well for some of the nervous holders of SKT that he is out. I believe a few bought into his paranoia about the Chairman, CEO & management and bailed out of SKT in the last few weeks.

Conversely, there would be some who were able to buy in cheap in the last few weeks because of his maniac postings.

[airedale]

He can always buy back in when there is a pull back. A modest punt could still be profitable

[Vitamin_A]

Property sale announcement this side of Christmas?

[Balance]

Property sale announcement this side of Christmas?

Nothing focuses minds to get a deal done than Christmas & the summer holidays.

Can be sure that they are busting their chops to get the sale done by 23rd Dec & load up on the champagne & lobsters.

[winner69]

Nothing focuses minds to get a deal done than Christmas & the summer holidays.

Can be sure that they are busting their chops to get the sale done by 23rd Dec & load up on the champagne & lobsters.

Christmas does tend to make things happen

I remember one Christmas Eve on a conference call getting the last details of an acquisition agreed and the boss said ‘winner what the heck you doing …all that clattering’ and I replied ‘basting the roast turkey sir, remember Christmas doesn’t wait for anyone’

[sb9]

Property sale announcement this side of Christmas?

Technically this week is last full working week for most NZers, so I'd be very surprised if we didn't hear re property sale by this friday.

[mistaTea]

Technically this week is last full working week for most NZers, so I'd be very surprised if we didn't hear re property sale by this friday.

Agreed - I think most likely this week.

Could be next week I guess, but that would be cutting it a bit fine.

[mistaTea]

For what it's worth...the Simply Wallstreet algorithm has Sky currently worth $4.25/share. You can see their DCF assumptions etc.

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/media/nzx-skt/sky-network-television-shares#valuation

[mikelee]

Would be very tempting for me to sell at that price, unless the annual dividend yield is around 25 cents. :)

[mistaTea]

Would be very tempting for me to sell at that price, unless the annual dividend yield is around 25 cents. :)

Yeah, and their workings are based on s/o of ~175M (so a market cap of ~$740M).

We are yet to see what goodies Bowman has in terms of capital management (we find out on Feb 24). If the SP rises too much from where it is then it may get to the point that an on market buyback becomes questionable. Depends on how you look at it, and what you assess the intrinsic value of Sky to be.

But, if they did do something like that, and if they reduced s/o to 160M by way of on market buyback...then a $740M market cap becomes $4.63/share. If they reduced s/o to 150M it becomes $4.93/share.

So the capital managament aspect of their plan is going to be the most fundamental force (in the shorter term) to what the SP is able to do. Dividends will absolutely drive price higher, but by how much will depend on capital management.

[mistaTea]

Hey I just noticed that Ogg has been banned again...and it looks like all of his posts from the past have been removed.

Anyone know what he did?

[mistaTea]

Crickey! Jimdog got banned too!

[snigmac]

Maybe they deleted their accounts after selling out of Sky Tv?

[Balance]

Hey I just noticed that Ogg has been banned again...and it looks like all of his posts from the past have been removed.

Anyone know what he did?

Looks too me like he requested to be removed and deleted from ST.

For his mental health, it's a good thing if that is what he has done.

Watching and posting on a stock second by second for months on end - madness!

[mistaTea]

Looks too me like he requested to be removed and deleted from ST.

For his mental health, it's a good thing if that is what he has done.

Watching and posting on a stock second by second for months on end - madness!

I don't think that would explain him (and jimdog) being banned​ though...

[Balance]

I don't think that would explain him (and jimdog) being banned​ though...

He has been removed altogether - that’s an extremely harsh sanction which is not ST way of doing things.

Jimdog is still in the system - just banned.

I recall Moose requesting himself to be removed altogether after he objected to being banned for the umpteen time?

[mistaTea]

He has been removed altogether - that’s an extremely harsh sanction which is not ST way of doing things.

Jimdog is still in the system - just banned.

I recall Moose requesting himself to be removed altogether after he objected to being banned for the umpteen time?


Ah ok, perhaps jimdog will be able to shed more light once he returns to us...

[sb9]

Cracking along nicely...

[Balance]

Cracking along nicely...

Pushed through beyond $2.50 at the close.

Must be a sight most shareholders thought they would not see in 2021?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Wow - all this BEFORE the property sale is announced.

Happy days.

[mikelee]

I kept an eye on the SP till about 1pm yesterday, when it was still $2.42 so didn't expect much action. Very impressed with the closing price before any significant update too. SKY is different from other shares I used to own, where after significant rise you see a lot of profit taking and it'll typically take a while before SP climbs back up.

[Balance]

I kept an eye on the SP till about 1pm yesterday, when it was still $2.42 so didn't expect much action. Very impressed with the closing price before any significant update too. SKY is different from other shares I used to own, where after significant rise you see a lot of profit taking and it'll typically take a while before SP climbs back up.

Sky is a NZ50 index stock.

Institutions have been hugely underweight the stock for the last few years. That had been the right thing to do as the stock had been a serial underperformer (to put it mildly).

YTD however (with 2 weeks trading to go before year end) Sky has outperformed the index by over 50%!

Now that the stock is starting to perform and indications are that better times are ahead, institutions are imo scrambling to move to at least market weight so that the performances of their funds are not impacted by SKY outperforming the NZ50 index.

Problem for the institutions is that most of the stock has gone to retail punters (many here on ST) and the value funds like Osmium - so they are going to have to pay up to get volume.

So $3.00 looks a realistic level for the sp to level off by June 2022 imo when the property sale, the capital management initiatives & resumption of dividends are likely ro be announced in the next 6 months.

[mistaTea]

Sky is a NZ50 index stock.

Institutions have been hugely underweight the stock for the last few years. That had been the right thing to do as the stock had been a serial underperformer (to put it mildly).

YTD however (with 2 weeks trading to go before year end) Sky has outperformed the index by over 50%!

Now that the stock is starting to perform and indications are that better times are ahead, institutions are imo scrambling to move to at least market weight so that the performances of their funds are not impacted by SKY outperforming the NZ50 index.

Problem for the institutions is that most of the stock has gone to retail punters (many here on ST) and the value funds like Osmium - so they are going to have to pay up to get volume.

So $3.00 looks a realistic level for the sp to level off by June 2022 imo when the property sale, the capital management initiatives & resumption of dividends are likely ro be announced in the next 6 months.

Yes I suspect you are right.

And the further up they push the price by purchasing stock, the bigger percentage it becomes of the NZ50...and so more buying needed to get them to at least maintain market weight.

Then other instos (who are not just blatantly tracking the index) may want to have a touch more exposure given earnings are more certain now, revenue growing and healthy dividends will be paid soon after some kind of capital managent event.

I would not be shocked at all if we hit $3 before Feb 24.

[Balance]

Yes I suspect you are right.

And the further up they push the price by purchasing stock, the bigger percentage it becomes of the NZ50...and so more buying needed to get them to at least maintain market weight.

Then other instos (who are not just blatantly tracking the index) may want to have a touch more exposure given earnings are more certain now, revenue growing and healthy dividends will be paid soon after some kind of capital managent event.

I would not be shocked at all if we hit $3 before Feb 24.

Be great if it hits $3.00 by Feb 24 but I will be happy with $3.00 by June 2022 plus a dividend.

Look at the way that the offer side gets gobbled up when enough volume is available? Classic sign of institutions competing for stock.

Ogg will be feeling rather relieved not to reading this thread?

[mistaTea]

Ogg will be feeling rather relieved not to reading this thread?

Oh he will be reading it alright.

[Vitamin_A]

Capital distribution aside, forget $3.00 per share, the stock should conservatively be around $3.50 per share based on ultra conservative EV/EBITDA comparisons. The insto's probably know this and need to creep without the share price running too hard too fast. Well, fat chance now. The cat's out of the bag. Everyone knows this stock is still significantly undervalued.

[Balance]

Capital distribution aside, forget $3.00 per share, the stock should conservatively be around $3.50 per share based on ultra conservative EV/EBITDA comparisons. The insto's probably know this and need to creep without the share price running too hard too fast. Well, fat chance now. The cat's out of the bag. Everyone knows this stock is still significantly undervalued.

Starting to sound like the sp run in August /Sept when everyone here got over-excited?

Don’t forget that Osmium & the other value funds could decide to provide stock & take their profits if the stock runs too hard & too fast.

Steady as she goes is best. $3.00 by June (20% gain plus a dividend) will be an excellent outcome after the market busting gain of 50% so far this year!

[mistaTea]

Capital distribution aside, forget $3.00 per share, the stock should conservatively be around $3.50 per share based on ultra conservative EV/EBITDA comparisons. The insto's probably know this and need to creep without the share price running too hard too fast. Well, fat chance now. The cat's out of the bag. Everyone knows this stock is still significantly undervalued.

Yes, Sky TV should conservatively be valued at $600M based on earnings. That would be a PE of only ~13 or ~8x FCF.

Right now $440M is only a PE of ~10 or ~6x FCF.

Add to this the injection of $50ish million from the property sale and the valuation seems even crazier.

Plenty of scope for the re-rate to continue...but it will go up gradually - kinda like what we saw with NZME (only even higher upside potential with Sky because price to underlying earnings has been way low for a long time in our case).

[mistaTea]

Starting to sound like the sp run in August /Sept when everyone here got over-excited?



I think that excitement was more driven by speculation that Osmium would buy 19.99% of Sky like they did with NZME. If they did that it would have pushed the SP up further, but also would have raised more speculation about a merger between Sky and NZME etc.

This sustained price increase is based on the back of a solid earning guidance revision and confirmation that the campus sale is almost wrapped up.

[Balance]

Yes, Sky TV should conservatively be valued at $600M based on earnings. That would be a PE of only ~13 or ~8x FCF.

Right now $440M is only a PE of ~10 or ~6x FCF.

Add to this the injection of $50ish million from the property sale and the valuation seems even crazier.

Plenty of scope for the re-rate to continue...but it will go up gradually - kinda like what we saw with NZME (only even higher upside potential with Sky because price to underlying earnings has been way low for a long time in our case).

If I weren't already overweight (especially now that the sp has put on 50%, adding to my weighting), I would be very very tempted to add more!!!!

Time for me to not read any more posts here just in case! :eek2:

[mikelee]

I wonder if the SP would have shot up like this without the share consolidation. Really miss having millions of shares. :p

[mistaTea]

If I weren't already overweight (especially now that the sp has put on 50%, adding to my weighting), I would be very very tempted to add more!!!!

Time for me to not read any more posts here just in case! :eek2:

According to ASB securities someone has a Buy order in for $2.64!

[sb9]

According to ASB securities someone has a Buy order in for $2.64!

There's match volume for those high bids at 2.50 on offer side.

[mistaTea]

Ogg will be feeling rather relieved not to reading this thread?

$2.55!

If Ogg held his shares for just a few more days he would have realised another gain of $35K-$40K.

Coulda, shoulda, woulda...but he will be feeling vexxed after holding Sky through the 'tough times' only to see the SP continue to rocket after he bailed.

[sb9]

The way sp is going, $3 could happen by end of this week or before X-mas break :scared:

[mistaTea]

14 December 2021 is an important date in the Tea household!

Just hit $2.57 which is my break even.

I went back over my records, and the first small parcel of Sky shares I purchased was 4 years ago in September 2017! Ever since that first purchase I have always been in the red with Sky (to some degree).

[Meh]

I will also apologise to the pooman in the UK via good vibes for not engaging in the takeover if it gets over $3.

[Balance]

14 December 2021 is an important date in the Tea household!

Just hit $2.57 which is my break even.

I went back over my records, and the first small parcel of Sky shares I purchased was 4 years ago in September 2017! Ever since that first purchase I have always been in the red with Sky (to some degree).

Congrats as it just hit $2.58 so you are in the money!!!!

[mistaTea]

I will also apologise to the pooman in the UK via good vibes for not engaging in the takeover if it gets over $3.

I recently mused to a friend that perhaps Bowman is actually..The Messiah!

[ba9]

[QUOTE=mistaTea;932084]14 December 2021 is an important date in the Tea household! Just hit $2.57 which is my break even.


Congratulations MT. Your patience is finally paying off.

Here's hoping Santa comes early, and we hit the first $3 milestone before Xmas :)

[mistaTea]

Congrats as it just hit $2.58 so you are in the money!!!!

I don't know how to feel...this has never happened to me before...

[Balance]

I don't know how to feel...this has never happened to me before...

Enjoy the feeling - you have gone through hell to get here!

[Sideshow Bob]

I don't know how to feel...this has never happened to me before...

Trust MrsT will be happy! :t_up:

[mistaTea]

Trust MrsT will be happy! :t_up:

At $2.62 it is time for her rendition of Oral Amber I think :D

[LoungeLizzard]

At $2.62 it is time for her rendition of Oral Amber I think :D

Yep, there's going to be a lot of champagne corks popping tonight....

[sb9]

Looks like FOMO kicking in and/or someone knows more about property sale process/price.

[Balance]

At $2.62 it is time for her rendition of Oral Amber I think :D

Poor Ogg!!!!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

A real shame I didn't have the balls to break some portfolio rules and buy even more than I did in the 160's and 170's over the last month or so.

[sb9]

14 December 2021 is an important date in the Tea household!

Just hit $2.57 which is my break even.

I went back over my records, and the first small parcel of Sky shares I purchased was 4 years ago in September 2017! Ever since that first purchase I have always been in the red with Sky (to some degree).

Wow, that's hell of holding for 4 years and you deserve every bit of gains now.

[curious zebra]

I don't know how to feel...this has never happened to me before...

Congrats, you've waited a long time - our first purchase was 2017 too, but we're not quite at break even - so don't rush in to sell just yet - keep those 'ask' order numbers down:)!

[Entrep]

14 December 2021 is an important date in the Tea household!

Just hit $2.57 which is my break even.

I went back over my records, and the first small parcel of Sky shares I purchased was 4 years ago in September 2017! Ever since that first purchase I have always been in the red with Sky (to some degree).

Good on you!

[mistaTea]

Congrats, you've waited a long time - our first purchase was 2017 too, but we're not quite at break even - so don't rush in to sell just yet - keep those 'ask' order numbers down:)!

Oh I have no intention to sell any time soon.

[sb9]

Shaping out to be best stock of my portfolio this year, tht I had that covered through RAK and MHJ. Who would've thought...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$2.63

unthinkable vs 2 weeks ago.

[mistaTea]

$2.63

unthinkable vs 2 weeks ago.

Absolutely.

And just imagine what the valuation will be once the property sale is confirmed and then the buyback and dividend policy is confirmed in Feb.

$3 valuations from Morningstar, Fbar etc looking more conservative by the day.

[Rustycage]

Congrats on reaching profitability MT

I hope i can one day reach your level of patience when buying s***cos 🚀

[uravgtrader]

Wow! Up 19% overall today! Never thought I'd see the day after buying in 2 and a half years ago.