SKT Sky Network Television Limited.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The $2.30-$2.40 area was my target for a healthy retracement from highs. Have added the first portion of a new swing position and will keep adding more from here.

[mistaTea]

From 2017, not long after the Sky-Voda deal was blocked:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/spark-offers-free-netflix-to-customers/QRUSD6U7YCSIFSYLEPSZU56HHI/

I was trying to figure out why SKT does not have a deal with NETFLIX by now. After all, offering NETFLIX as part of a entertainment package is pretty standard for Sky UK now.

It is because Spark's deal with NETFLIX is exclusive.

I have it on good authority that Spark paid NETFLIX the biggest premium ever paid in the world to get the deal done exlusively. So that actually lose a fair bit on each sub they sign up, though clearly are of the view that they make it up in time with lower churn on broadband etc.

When your revenue streams are well diversified you can do things like that.

Not sure when their partnership deal is up for renewal, and it will be interesting to see if they pony up again and pay a large premium to prevent other players like Sky from getting a NETFLIX deal.

[Jay]

I get the "basic" Netflix package free with my fibre connection thru Spark - no doubt if Spark did lose it to Sky or someone else, I would have to then pay for it which at this point I would not bother - only got a couple of things on the list to watch via netflix.

[mistaTea]

I get the "basic" Netflix package free with my fibre connection thru Spark - no doubt if Spark did lose it to Sky or someone else, I would have to then pay for it which at this point I would not bother - only got a couple of things on the list to watch via netflix.

Just a minor point...but you aren't quite getting it for free...the cost of the NETFLIX sub is bundled in.

You are most certainly getting it heavily subsidised...but certainly not free.

[mistaTea]

https://simplywall.st/stocks/nz/media/nzx-skt/sky-network-television-shares#valuation

Fair value estimated at $4.23/share. You can click the 'View Data' button under the infographic to see the DCF calculations.

Fairly bearish assumptions made on future earning power.

Though it also does assume Sky will be trading in 10+ years time. If you think that Sky will be dead within the next 5 years, then the current SP is very fair (and simply wall st valuation is redundant).

[Jay]

Just a minor point...but you aren't quite getting it for free...the cost of the NETFLIX sub is bundled in.

You are most certainly getting it heavily subsidised...but certainly not free.

Well yes I know that - minor point as you say

[mistaTea]

Well yes I know that - minor point as you say

Sure, but it's not what you said... :D

I think a lot of people think they they are getting NETFLIX for 'free' with their Spark broadband bundle.

It is completely incorrect of course, but shows how smart bundling can be. What is important is that the consumer feels that they are getting something for nothing.

[biker]

Sure, but it's not what you said... :D

I think a lot of people think they they are getting NETFLIX for 'free' with their Spark broadband bundle.

It is completely incorrect of course, but shows how smart bundling can be. What is important is that the consumer feels that they are getting something for nothing.

Excellent point mistaTea

[Jay]

Although I recently changed plans where I was not getting Netflix, free or otherwise, but the new plan costs less and has Netflix - otherwise no different to what I was on as for speed/data etc - so a win for me.!

I note they introduce new plans which are/seem to be good value to what you are currently on, then down the track drop those and introduce a new one the same or better for less cost but of course do not tell the existing subscribers.
Got to keep an eye on that!
Twice this has happened in the last few years, first time I only looked into it as our usage was starting to skyrocket due to eldest now with a computer and phone and endless video watching by said child :-) and the fact that Sky "lost"/did not want to pay so much for F1 and the WRC, I have said previously for me lost those two from Sky but subs did not change - so I could say that I was getting those for free - ha ha ha

[mistaTea]

Our relationship with Orcon goes way back.

2010: Orcon provided their network to help Sky launch iSky. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/sky-to-launch-internet-tv-service-with-orcon/4LMPVKCAVAHDUVSTXIHVRL5YDY/

2014: It was speculated that Sky might be on the brink of purchasing Orcon. But the price must have been too high and so JF took a pass (plus he would have been careful not to upset Vodafone). https://billbennett.co.nz/sky-orcon/

Ultimately that deal did not happen and within two years of that article Sky and Vodafone were going to get married.

Now things have changed. Instead of Sky being the $2B juggernaut considering purchasing minnow Orcon, it may well end up being a $2B Orcon considering buying minnow Sky TV!

[mistaTea]

Our relationship with Orcon goes way back.

2010: Orcon provided their network to help Sky launch iSky. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/technology/sky-to-launch-internet-tv-service-with-orcon/4LMPVKCAVAHDUVSTXIHVRL5YDY/

2014: It was speculated that Sky might be on the brink of purchasing Orcon. But the price must have been too high and so JF took a pass (plus he would have been careful not to upset Vodafone). https://billbennett.co.nz/sky-orcon/

Ultimately that deal did not happen and within two years of that article Sky and Vodafone were going to get married.

Now things have changed. Instead of Sky being the $2B juggernaut considering purchasing minnow Orcon, it may well end up being a $2B Orcon considering buying minnow Sky TV!

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/10158672/Sky-TV-may-enter-internet-market

$30M asking price!!!

7 years on and the business is valued at ~$700M.

Christ Almighty.

[mistaTea]

Wow! yet they bought Rugby pass...

Yes! And paid US$40M for it.

At the time I had high hopes that it could materialise into something...but now it is clear that Sky got played. The RP owners at the time took advantage of Sky being in a panic and paranoid about losing the NZR contract...so they paid big time to buy RP and demonstate how 'with it' Sky is so that NZR didn't go to Spark (even though that outcome was highly unlikely anyway).

So we probbaly paid 10X what a rational buyer would pay for a loss-making streamer with rugby contracts in every single country except for the ones that matter.

Hindsight is a beautiful thing, and I am sure John Fellet and the team will have a long list of excuses if ever asked...but had Sky bought Orcon back in 2014 (I am sure they would have had less Comcom scrutiny that the Vodafone transaction) things would be so different now. The market would not have reacted quite so aggressively against Sky if they were a bonafide telco with multiple revenue streams. Had Sky taken this route instead, they probably would have purchased 2D years ago too.

Oh well - shoulda, woulda coulda.

Now the tables have turned...rather than Sky acting on the likes of Orcon as they (Sky) carefully shape their future...it is much more likely that other parties will be the ones who act upon Sky now and decide her future for her.

[mikelee]

And thanks to that many of us were able to buy into SKY last year for less than 20 cents! :D

[airedale]

And thanks to that many of us were able to buy into SKY last year for less than 20 cents! :D
$2.00 in real 2022 terms.

[winner69]

I think we’ll be bemoaning the SKT share price for many years …maybe forever …..like it will never trade anywhere near ‘fair value’ / ‘intrinsic value’

One a share market pariah alwaysxa share market pariah

[mistaTea]

I think we’ll be bemoaning the SKT share price for many years …maybe forever …..like it will never trade anywhere near ‘fair value’ / ‘intrinsic value’

One a share market pariah alwaysxa share market pariah

Sky will never get anywhere near intrinsic value so long as she remains solely a content aggregator.

Sky UK knew this and just look out how they transformed by fully embracing telco.

We were late to the party but JF did try and get us there with the Vodafone deal…but it wasn’t to be.

Now we are in 2022 and things are way different. I think it would be crazy for the Sky Board not to get a deal together and make something happen.

Merging with Foxtel is the other option and would help get more scale. But Foxtel have IPO fever (again) and their energy is focussed on listing.

My strong preference remains for Sky to become a fully fledged telco. That would put an end to the market question of whether or not sky will still be around in 5 years time and, if so, in what capacity?

It is that never-ending question about Sky’s viability longer term that retards her EBITDA multiple.

[mistaTea]

https://www.skysportnow.co.nz/packages?type=0#packagesSection

I see Sky Sport NOW are offering the winter olympics for a one-off $24.99. You get all Sports channels between 02 Feb - 20 Feb.

Good to see them continuing to evolve their offers.

I don't think the economics ever allow for punters to get down to the level where you just pay $x/month for individual channels etc. But good to see that there are opportunities to effectively give people tournament passes.

And allowing access to all the sports channels for the tournament period is smart - hopefully customers see other sporting codes during the tournament and see value in continuing a subscription.

[mikelee]

Good to have these major sporting events to keep people interested.
Did someone mention that SKY no longer have the rights to F1? The 2022 season is not too far away.
Also good to see that Hollywood did not come to a stand still during the pandemic. :)

[Joshuatree]

Really enjoyed the 12 day Dakar desert race highlights ,with 8 classes from mbike's to trucks.Spectacular scenery.AMA Motocross back too ,great stuff.

[Jay]

Good to have these major sporting events to keep people interested.
Did someone mention that SKY no longer have the rights to F1? The 2022 season is not too far away.
Also good to see that Hollywood did not come to a stand still during the pandemic. :)

Correct mike - Spark Sport have F1 - looking forward to March 20th I think it is
Sky not had it for a couple of years now

[mistaTea]

Correct mike - Spark Sport have F1 - looking forward to March 20th I think it is
Sky not had it for a couple of years now

Losing F1 was pretty bad.

One can only assume that Spark paid way over the odds (again) to win the rights.

In which case, we should be thankful that we didn't outbid Spark. Just not sustainable to pay over the odds for everything and still maintain a viable business. So we are more strategic on the ones we do pay up for. More strategic. Like a surgeon with a scalpel rather than Arnie with a bazooka.

[Jay]

Losing F1 was pretty bad.

One can only assume that Spark paid way over the odds (again) to win the rights.

In which case, we should be thankful that we didn't outbid Spark. Just not sustainable to pay over the odds for everything and still maintain a viable business. So we are more strategic on the ones we do pay up for. More strategic. Like a surgeon with a scalpel rather than Arnie with a bazooka.

Well said Mr T

[mistaTea]

Enjoying AO - always a great tournament.

It is interesting watching some of it on my STB and some streamed via Sky GO.

Sky GO gives a very good HD quality picture...same quality as Sky Sport NOW. But even so, you find the ball just doesn't quite track as 'smoothly' as it does when I am watching via satellite feed.

This is an ongoing issue for live sport streaming. It is very good, but still just not quite as good as the 'old school' satellite.

For this reason I think the new STB has a good chance at being very successful - certainly for the sport lovers. A first of its kind in NZ - one platform that has shifted in a big way to streaming but still keeps the strenghts/competitive advantage of satellite.

[mistaTea]

Sky GO gives a very good HD quality picture...

A little fun fact for you all... Sky GO is the successor of Sky's first entry into streaming content - iSky. This was back in 2010 (and who says Sky was slow to start exploiting internet technology?) when there wasn't much in the way of apps etc so users streamed on a web browser.

And who enabled Sky to provide this offer? Orcon of course :cool:

We have had a very good relationship with these guys going way back. No reason to think that relationship shouldn't continue to strengthen out into the future...

[Habits]

We have Sony tv with in-built apps including Sky Sport Now. 39 per month although I think there has been cheaper deals but very happy with this one

[mistaTea]

We have Sony tv with in-built apps including Sky Sport Now. 39 per month although I think there has been cheaper deals but very happy with this one

$39.99 gives you maximum flexibility as there is no contract so you can cancel anytime. You pay a premium for this each month, but if you don't watch sport all year round it could be worth it.

But if you watch a wide range of sport and tend to hang on to your Sky Sport sub month in and month out then the Annual Pass for $399.99 is clearly great value ($33.33 per month).

Mind you, there is only $6.66/month in it. That is a 20% premium...which sounds like a huge amount, but would barely buy you a large flat white at any decent cafe...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looks like Omicron is now in the NZ wild - be prepared for near term weakness as it is likely Super Rugby 2022 ends up a near term casualty (temporary).

[mistaTea]

Looks like Omicron is now in the NZ wild - be prepared for near term weakness as it is likely Super Rugby 2022 ends up a near term casualty (temporary).

Hopefully an opportunity to load up the truck one last time before the Bowman lolly scramble on Feb 24,

[mistaTea]

Looks like Omicron is now in the NZ wild - be prepared for near term weakness as it is likely Super Rugby 2022 ends up a near term casualty (temporary).


At least Cindy has ruled out lockdowns (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-omicron-cases-in-auckland-palmerston-north-nz-to-move-to-red-in-outbreak-jacinda-ardern-rules-out-lockdowns/5OCYONVWVJW2RI5DZ3RU7T447U/) (not that you can really trust anything she says).

So the question is what will the border restrictions be in a month?

If we accept that Omicron is coming, then we should still open up to Aussie and The Pacific (with Covid-19 restrictions in place).

I see the UK has hit a critical mass of Omicron infections now and they will soon remove all restrictions in England. We will only get to thi stage once Omicron has had it's run through the community.

Appreciate this is not a Covid forum, but I suspect we will continue down the path of gradually opening up. It is proving way too costly financialy to stay isolated. Good thing I booked my booster for tomorrow!

So for Sky, I don't think the inevitable Omicron outbreak should be as big a deal as previous outbreaks where we were locked down (and sport came to a grinding halt). If Sky could weather those storms then Omicron is not the one that Mr Market should be losing his sh1t over.

Imho.

[Habits]

6.66 / 39.99 is 16.7 prcent MT?? 2 months per year freeeeee. Have been a subscriber for over 12 months however the tv was located at our bnb for guests to use and have now sold up. More money to buy sky shares :D

[mistaTea]

6.66 / 39.99 is 16.7 prcent MT?? 2 months per year freeeeee. Have been a subscriber for over 12 months however the tv was located at our bnb for guests to use and have now sold up. More money to buy sky shares :D

I was working it the other way. $6.66 is a ~20% premium to the Annual Pass ($6.66/$33.33 = 19.98% premium).

But yes you do get around 2 months 'free' if you take the Annual Pass. You save $79.89.

I would personally take the Annual Pass and bank the savings.

On a separate but related note, I have traditional Sky TV, but canned my Movies and Rialto subs in favour of NEON. You don't get the full Movies/Rialto range on NEON...but there is still more content on there than I could ever watch.
I took the Annual Pass for $159.99 which works out to a paltry $13.33/month). By far the cheapest OTT service for the range of premium content on offer.

In total, Sky still get ~$200/month from me between Broadband, Sky TV and NEON so they should still be happy campers :cool:

[mikelee]

What UK is doing is mad I reckon. Omicron have peaked is enough reason to do away with mask & vaccine passport in public place?! Anyway, I agree too that if SKY can survive 2020, with zero vaccination, then Omicron should be a breeze by comparison.

[mistaTea]

What UK is doing is mad I reckon. Omicron have peaked is enough reason to do away with mask & vaccine passport in public place?!

It is where the world will transition to in 2022. High vaccination rates and then BAU (as much as possible). Have to get on with it and live with Covid as an endemic disease.

It will be the same for NZ...they are predicting thousands of cases a day once it takes hold. Once it peaks, we will do the same as the UK.



Anyway, I agree too that if SKY can survive 2020, with zero vaccination, then Omicron should be a breeze by comparison


100% - it would be irrational to fear that Omicron was going to have a major impact on Sky given Sky TV not only survived 2020 and 2021 but has actually come out the other side stronger. Omicron will no doubt cause some distruption, but nothing for anyone to lose their minds over (so far as Sky TV is concerned).

In fact, when we go to Red and people are asked to wfh more...I would expect that to give another bump to streaming subs in particular.

[mistaTea]

https://moanapasifika.co.nz/moana-pasifika-in-partnership-with-sky-dedicate-pre-season-match-against-gallagher-chiefs-to-tongan-ofa-atu-tonga-disaster-relief-efforts/

Good to see we are stepping up to help our brothers and sisters in Tonga.

The place looks like a wasteland, which saddens me. Let's hope a lot of NZ and Aussie businesses find ways to help.

And, of course, this does also serve Sky well as a relativelty cheap marketing opportunity.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It is where the world will transition to in 2022. High vaccination rates and then BAU (as much as possible). Have to get on with it and live with Covid as an endemic disease.

It will be the same for NZ...they are predicting thousands of cases a day once it takes hold. Once it peaks, we will do the same as the UK.



100% - it would be irrational to fear that Omicron was going to have a major impact on Sky given Sky TV not only survived 2020 and 2021 but has actually come out the other side stronger. Omicron will no doubt cause some distruption, but nothing for anyone to lose their minds over (so far as Sky TV is concerned).

In fact, when we go to Red and people are asked to wfh more...I would expect that to give another bump to streaming subs in particular.

I don’t think there is any chance we follow the very lax UK public health measures. Once Omicron hits, hopefully after a few months in RED traffic light, we will be back to ORANGE settings, and probably stay there for the foreseeable immediate future.

[mistaTea]

I don’t think there is any chance we follow the very lax UK public health measures. Once Omicron hits, hopefully after a few months in RED traffic light, we will be back to ORANGE settings, and probably stay there for the foreseeable immediate future.

Not sure I would describe the UK as being 'lax' but I think you are right that NZ will take a more conservative approach.

Fine by me - more people staying home for 2022 will help Sky TV subs and ultimately what really matters - Owner Earnings.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not sure I would describe the UK as being 'lax' but I think you are right that NZ will take a more conservative approach.

Fine by me - more people staying home for 2022 will help Sky TV subs and ultimately what really matters - Owner Earnings.

Indeed - and although local sport content might be short term impacted (due to omicron ripping through the squads, like it has with the aleague in Australia), the good news for sky is that this has or will have already happened with overseas leagues (hopefully its hard for people to catch it more than once a season), minimizing content disruption.

[snigmac]

Has anyone else been watching Peacemaker? I think it's great content.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It was rather fun watching the “Black Clash” last night. Theres plenty of eyeballs that would be attracted to a more regular series of games like this using retried no-longer-contracted-to-NZcricket players, mixed with other celebrities/sportsmen from other sports. Sky probably dont want to harm a future opportunity with NZC at this stage, but if they didn’t get the rights back next time then its worthy of proceeding with something like this. Actually might be something they could arrange with NZ Rugby, taking a dozen of their biggest names and having a summer series where they undertake a bunch of other competitive non-rugby events for entertainment purposes.

[Harley]

Has anyone else been watching Peacemaker? I think it's great content.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_mrr3UNALww&ab_channel=HBOMax

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Feels like the calm before the storm... less than a month until the big day.

We are right in my favourite zone for a weekly bull flag formation - 38% retracement and weekly EMA12 lining up. Volume has dropped right off, even with the extreme volatility of the rest of the market which I find interesting. Could there be some talks going on with major holders???

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OEbkRmSE/

This is by far my highest conviction stock on the NZX for 2022.

[snigmac]

A early announcement providing confidence in respect to guidance and a 10c per share dividend would work magic.

[mistaTea]

A early announcement providing confidence in respect to guidance and a 10c per share dividend would work magic.

I would rather wait for them to do a buyback before announcing any dividends.

I want the SP as low as possible for a buyback - so I wouldn’t want anything like a dividend pushing the SP up before the buyback is complete.

[mistaTea]

Feels like the calm before the storm... less than a month until the big day.

We are right in my favourite zone for a weekly bull flag formation - 38% retracement and weekly EMA12 lining up. Volume has dropped right off, even with the extreme volatility of the rest of the market which I find interesting. Could there be some talks going on with major holders???

https://www.tradingview.com/x/OEbkRmSE/

This is by far my highest conviction stock on the NZX for 2022.

Very interesting points.

Would not be shocking at all if some kind of deal is announced before Bowman can start spending the cash on Feb 24.

[mistaTea]

Has anyone else been watching Peacemaker? I think it's great content.

Watched the first episode this morning.

It is really good! John Cena is the King of slap stick comedy.

[snigmac]

Watched the first episode this morning.

It is really good! John Cena is the King of slap stick comedy.

Yes, they have a winner here.

[mistaTea]

Yes, they have a winner here.

I’m going to rent the latest James Bond tonight on NEON.

Only $7.99 - in this current pandemic environment that he a steal.

[mikelee]

Hope you've got a good home theatre setup to get the most out of this action packed Bond film. :cool:

[mistaTea]

2D already offer 6 month 'free' NEON with their broadband plans...

Looks like they have now secured a whoesale deal for SSN (https://www.2degrees.nz/skysportnow?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=display&utm_content=banner&utm_campaign=mobileplans_paymonthly_sky-sports-now-jan-mar-2022). 6 months of SSN for 'free' if you take a mobile plan.

Good to see the relationship continues to get...closer...

[snigmac]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Neon and Sky sales increase with all the people that will need to self isolate and WFH.

[mistaTea]

I wouldn't be surprised if we see Neon and Sky sales increase with all the people that will need to self isolate and WFH.

So long as we keep the STB base stabilised then the growth in streaming subs is a good news story.

I want to see them offer broadband with NEON and SSN to increase revenue from those subs and make them sticker.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/the-non-traditional-players-seen-seizing-400000-broadband-customers/XXWIZ4THLA5YZUIWNEJQNKACQU/

Some decent upside potential for Sky Broadband.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/233168

Brian Han from Morningstar has commented on merger possibilities with Orcon/2D.

Though he thinks someone else (PE) may have a go first with a view that they could sell the business to someone like Orcon/2D down the track for a premium...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/233168

Brian Han from Morningstar has commented on merger possibilities with Orcon/2D.

Though he thinks someone else (PE) may have a go first with a view that they could sell the business to someone like Orcon/2D down the track for a premium...

My spidey senses are tingling... pure speculation, but each day that passes with pitiful volume increases my belief that talks are happening with major holders.

[snigmac]

February will be the month that makes or breaks SKT. We have all known this... It's either that SKT will climb to 6-800m market cap or slowly whither away.

[Habits]

SKT trending higher though just one persons opinion

[mistaTea]

February will be the month that makes or breaks SKT. We have all known this... It's either that SKT will climb to 6-800m market cap or slowly whither away.

In an ideal situation, the cash pile could all be used on growth initiatives.

Transform the business, lift EPS, lift the PE multiple (which will happen if confidence is restored) and see large gains in market cap.

But that requires a Board with vision.

We should be able to make a meaningful acquisition using our cash and balance sheet.

Buybacks are great only if the SP is low AND there are no good growth opportunities for the cash. At that point cannibalising our stock is ideal.

Dividends way down the list (or should be anyway). That should only happen if all other possibilities have been exhausted.

Feb 24 will show us just how shareholder-oriented these guys are. They claim to have our best interests at heart, so let’s see.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/233168

Brian Han from Morningstar has commented on merger possibilities with Orcon/2D.

Though he thinks someone else (PE) may have a go first with a view that they could sell the business to someone like Orcon/2D down the track for a premium...

"Approached for comment today, a Sky spokesperson said the company would make no comment on the speculation."

In the past, when M&A events have been speculated on...yet nothing was in fact in the works...Sky tended to have a lot more to say to journalists.

I think it is very interesting that this time they have just given a clipped "no comment" answer to Dita.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

"Approached for comment today, a Sky spokesperson said the company would make no comment on the speculation."

In the past, when M&A events have been speculated on...yet nothing was in fact in the works...Sky tended to have a lot more to say to journalists.

I think it is very interesting that this time they have just given a clipped "no comment" answer to Dita.

Not even the usual line of saying Jarden is in place to assess a range of options.

[mistaTea]

Not even the usual line of saying Jarden is in place to assess a range of options.

Exactly, normally we would get something along the lines of "We cannot comment on market speculation however note as per our previous comments that we are open to partnerships and continue to work with Jarden to assess any opportunities that may present".

Just: no comment.

If I had to bet on it...I would say PE are going to have another go before Orcon/2D. Purely due to timing.

Orcon/2D have to get their own merger over the line first. If MIRA/Aware Super tried to move quickly to grab Sky now...it would be a complicating factor in the deal they are already getting through. They will only get regulatory clearance for Orcon/2D in March...so the deal will finalise in April, or maybe May.

That gives a window of opportunity for PE to get a deal done before they have competition.

In any case, Sky shareholders are sitting pretty. If PE make another low ball offer, the Board will reject it (again) and we will get our buybacks and divvys. That will support the SP and help future negotiations.

If they do make a good offer (I am thinking the EV needs to be at !$600M given the significant cash pile). That would generate a sale price of $650-$700M ($3.70 - $4 per share) then shareholders get certainty sooner.

Anything less than that and we are better off continuing as we are, tak the "lolly scramble" in Feb 24 and then work on a better deal.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Completely agree with you. Volume dropped off notably on 17th of Jan, when all fund managers were back. This is notable as the weeks before then should have been much lower volume than that period due to holidays. On market action has just looked like retail and ETF flows.

I reckon there's a very good chance someone has been in serious talks with Sky and major holders trying to agree on a price from 17th of Jan. If this is the case then any announcement would be imminent (and certainly before results).

Note: this is my own opinion and is pure speculation. It should not be considered any reason to buy, hold or sell.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Can I get you to expand on your thoughts here? the volume not being funds under management, why is that an indicator of serious talks? on the surface of it it could just mean funds are neither buying or selling. Have you seen this in the past? Genuinely interested in your thoughts?

It could most certainly simply mean that major holders are happy with their current positions and simply have no requirement to trade. However it stands out to me that volume has dropped off whilst the rest of the market has become extremely volatile with high volumes. That is unusual, which in my view increases the odds that something is going on behind the scenes (i.e. funds would not be able to buy or sell if there are confidential talks underway).

[Watchful]

Just to fuel the rumours..

Just received an email from 2degrees offering a ‘2degrees perk’ of 6 months of SkySportNow at 20% off - $31.99/month.

Guess they’re still friends, anyway.

[Almost-confused]

Just seen the big posters in my local mall advertising this outside the 2Degrees store. Free advertising for Sky. Great move

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, you are right. Considering there are overseas funds that hold, given the offshore volatilty and unwinding of positions around the globe, it does strike me as odd now that you mention it.

Easy imo to conflate all sorts of things, reality might be more simple like big holders are happy with their positions leading into reporting. Some smaller holders might be happy to wait as well. Volume falls away.

[waikare]

Is any one else having trouble with Neon casting, since I updated to the latest version to my phone, the movies pauses for a few seconds every 3 to 5 mins.

[mistaTea]

Is any one else having trouble with Neon casting, since I updated to the latest version to my phone, the movies pauses for a few seconds every 3 to 5 mins.

NEON is the gift that keeps on giving for technical issues.

[mistaTea]

Mortal Kombat now streaming on NEON…

Ahhh, the fight scenes remind me of the punch ups I used to have in Shadows during my Uni days.

[snigmac]

Mortal Kombat now streaming on NEON…

Ahhh, the fight scenes remind me of the punch ups I used to have in Shadows during my Uni days.

Neon, one of the only places to also watch all of Game of Thrones.

[Moneyman]

Surely if a T/O offer is coming it will be in the next two weeks? Once the capital management plan/policy is announced and the share price jumps a T/O offer needs to be that much higher to be successful. If someone’s going to make a move it’s now or never? Buckle up it could be an interesting couple of weeks!

[snigmac]

Surely if a T/O offer is coming it will be in the next two weeks? Once the capital management plan/policy is announced and the share price jumps a T/O offer needs to be that much higher to be successful. If someone’s going to make a move it’s now or never? Buckle up it could be an interesting couple of weeks!

If a T/O was to occur I think it would occur after the capital management plan was released. If there is a large dividend declared, I think a offer would come in after the dividend is paid out. If there is a share buy back announced, it may come in around the same time or before the date the share buy back is initiated. This is my opinion.

[mistaTea]

If a T/O was to occur I think it would occur after the capital management plan was released. If there is a large dividend declared, I think a offer would come in after the dividend is paid out. If there is a share buy back announced, it may come in around the same time or before the date the share buy back is initiated. This is my opinion.

If there are any serious talks at the moment it must be the best kept secret in the world given the low SP…

[biker]

Bored with this sagging share price so here’s a random theory.
The share price graph shows the share price jumped about 30% in August then sagged back, then jumped about 50% in early December and is sagging back. Continue the trend and the next jump should be about 70% ! If it now saggs to say 2.20, the next jump would take it to 3.70!

Disclaimer: It is strongly suggested that you don’t take this extremely insightful analysis seriously.

[mistaTea]

SP up today on low volume...

Will sit here all day refreshing my borwser until I see some TA from Johnnythe Horse assuring me these trading patterns are still in line with some kind of upcoming M&A event that will make me a very rich man...

[Balance]

SP up today on low volume...

Will sit here all day refreshing my borwser until I see some TA from Johnnythe Horse assuring me these trading patterns are still in line with some kind of upcoming M&A event that will make me a very rich man...

Am fully expecting an announcement of M&A development by or on results announcement date.

Too much fees at stake for the investment bankers not to make an easy deal like this to happen.

[mistaTea]

Too much fees at stake for the investment bankers not to make an easy deal like this to happen.

That is a very good point. The fees are too big for them to let this go...and given the sustained low SP, The Board won't be able to say no forever.

[mikelee]

I'm guessing all the talk here about T/O drove up the SP yesterday? Keep up the good work guys! :t_up:

[mistaTea]

I'm guessing all the talk here about T/O drove up the SP yesterday? Keep up the good work guys! :t_up:

Pretty sure that was more to do with an overall lift in the NZ50.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

SP up today on low volume...

Will sit here all day refreshing my borwser until I see some TA from Johnnythe Horse assuring me these trading patterns are still in line with some kind of upcoming M&A event that will make me a very rich man...

Sorry for the delay mistaTea... but no changes since the last post. Still just low volume bouncing by retail and fund flows. The most important point is that we are still in a weekly bull flag formation, meaning continuation of the uptrend (new highs) is the most probable scenario. Yes, the pullback from $2.74 down to $2.35 is actually part of a bullish formation by cooling off RSI levels for the next up leg. $2.50 break would confirm the weekly higher low.

[Balance]

You had me at 'bullish formation' :cool:

Take any decent pullback as an opportunity - but don’t ever ever do an Ogg!

[snigmac]

I trust that the board have discussed all the possible outcomes of the capital management plan already and have selected the one that will be in the best interest to the company and shareholders.

3 weeks to go, in the endgame now.

[Vitamin_A]

You'd have to expect some loose lips somewhere between investment bankers and the SKT board re, capital structure announcement in a couple of weeks. Maybe the actual 24th will be an anti-climax but we see a decent run up beforehand? I'm thinking maybe much of what will be announced on the 24th is already priced in or will be priced in over the next, say, ten days. All valuations point to a share price closer to $4.00 than $3.00. Maybe we will creep closer to $3.00 over the next week. I hope so.

[RGR367]

You'd have to expect some loose lips somewhere between investment bankers and the SKT board re, capital structure announcement in a couple of weeks. Maybe the actual 24th will be an anti-climax but we see a decent run up beforehand? I'm thinking maybe much of what will be announced on the 24th is already priced in or will be priced in over the next, say, ten days. All valuations point to a share price closer to $4.00 than $3.00. Maybe we will creep closer to $3.00 over the next week. I hope so.

I like your optimism Mineral :)

[Balance]

Knocking on $2.50’s door…

For a stock like Sky which has now demonstrated operational & earnings turnaround, has a strong financial position (surplus cash which provides capital management options) and also clearly has multiple M&A options to pursue, $2.50 is cheap as.

Tempted to add more but I added more during the recent sell down by short term traders so will leave the ones shouting out currently at $2.50 to be taken to others at this stage.

Wake up one morning and the deal will be done and there is no time to get set - that’s still my view.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes, the Board will have received advice from their various 'Helpers' by now I am sure - so they should have a view on what will be best use of the cash pile by now given we are only a few weeks away from the HY results.

The only question is whether someone else can put a deal together with Sky before the cash starts to be distributed.

The Board are in a much stronger position now than a year ago, and are about to do some sort of buyback and dividend...which would certainly push the SP well past the $3/share mark.

So if a deal is to be done, it would need to be compelling enough given where things are at the moment.

Personally, I hope that PE do not make a formal offer at this junction. I would rather let the capital management plan play out, boost the SP and then do a merger deal with Orcon/2D once their own merger is complete (April/May).

That would be my ideal scenario. Obviously if PE came in before then and made a strong offer I am sure I would learn to live with that too.

But I would much rather do a merger deal with Orcon/2D where we can use our shares as currency so that I can continue owning a piece of the business forever.

Sky “merging” with 2D/vocus would be the opposite direction - the much larger private company 2degrees/Vocus Goliath buying the relatively tiny SkyTV (somewhere between 5x-10x size difference by enterprise value). They would be offering cash to sky shareholders if that was to happen, as there would be no publicly listed shares for them to offer (unless they waited until after they IPO’d). Even if 2degrees were to offer shares, you would be receiving shares in a company where sky is a minor segment compared to the rest of the business - for better or worse.

[Moneyman]

If 2degrees/vocus make a move I would be very surprised if Spark didn’t also make play. Sky would be a great addition for any of the telcos in NZ and offer a point of difference to their competitors!

[JohnnyTheHorse]

There we go...hit $2.50

MissusTea must be getting excited. I reckon you should probably push your valentines date out to the 24th, you'd be in for a real treat I'm sure.

In other news, further details on Orcon / 2degrees merger. IPO apparently firmly off the table now that they have deep access to capital. Paywalled: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/orcon-2degrees-name-leader-reveal-brand-for-merged-company/HHCN4T4ENDUJEZQREQJ7452D3E/

[Balance]

NBR article on Orcon/2D...https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/orcon-ceo-callander-set-answer-two-degrees-call

In fact, the parties submitted that the deal would have pro-competitive effects, because it would “create an integrated fixed-line and mobile business of scale, with the ability to provide better services to customers (both in terms of enhanced choice, as well as complete solutions and new bundles of services)”.

They are definitely big on the idea of seeking competitive advantage by finding ways to offer more competitive bundles...

There is a huge factor at play which has not been covered by the media or analysts so far imo.

That factor makes the acquisition or merger with Sky almost a certainty.

Only issue to me is timing.

As Rachel Hunter in her youthful day used to say ‘It wouldn’t happen overnight but it will happen!’

Set and ready for action!!!!!$

[snigmac]

What factor are you referring to?

New bundles of services could mean anything.

[ados_nz]

What factor are you referring to?


The factor that Ogg is now SKT's shadow CEO and actually sold his holdings to remove his conflict of interest before taking the role.

[Quantitative Easing]

https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/sk01y0/what_are_some_likely_mergers_and_acquisitions_in/

[snigmac]

MistaTea spreading the take over rumors on all sorts of platforms. I met a guy at the bar yesterday who knew of MistaTea.

[Quantitative Easing]

mistaTea is really famous. I know so many fanboys that look up to you. Why don't you run for mayor of Auckland?

[freebee]

Watched our Zoi win our first ever gold yesterday, what a buzz tears everywhere at our house

Fantastic day and great coverage from Sky

[Balance]

MistaTea spreading the take over rumors on all sorts of platforms. I met a guy at the bar yesterday who knew of MistaTea.

MistaTea is simply sharing his views of what needs to happen and what is likely to happen with Sky.

It is definitely one of those opportunities to do one’s own research & assessment - and then, act accordingly.

We do not want another Ogg situation however!

Whatever will be will be - just as long as everything is kept in perspective!

[Rawz]

I wonder if the OG, Ogg will comeback to sharetrader one day

[LoungeLizzard]

I received an interesting investment note this morning about Netflix…

“ Last week, Divya Narendra sat down for a live conversation with top-ranked SumZero contributor and New Constructs LLC founder/CEO David Trainer, who discussed his research short Netflix (NFLX: US), why he sees greater value in Disney (DIS: US), and New Constructs’ investment strategy and modeling system.

According to Trainer, NFLX is suffering a “death by a thousand competitors” after seeing subscriber growth stall following content spending cuts in an increasingly populated universe of streaming video providers. This, Trainer says, has left NFLX in a Catch-22 situation: “they can have profits or they can have subscriber growth: they can’t have both.” Despite hits like “Squid Game” and “Cobra Kai,” NFLX stock is down over 30% YTD: a long way from its 52-week high of $700.99.”

Death by a thousand competitors…

Good content aggregators will look more appealing over time as consumers are faced with too much choice.

Businesses like Sky just need to grow revenue by diversifying into complimentary services to ensure their livelihood is not dependent on any single content contract (i.e NZR). If they do that then their content aggregation business will have a solid base from which to become even more valuable over time as the streaming wars play out and we see massive fragmentation return to consolidation/aggregation over time.

Well put. Mistatea for CEO (if Ogg doesn't get there first).

[Marilyn Munroe]

.....

Businesses like Sky just need to grow revenue by diversifying into complimentary services to ensure their livelihood is not dependent on any single content contract (i.e NZR). If they do that then their content aggregation business will have a solid base from which to become even more valuable over time as the streaming wars play out and we see massive fragmentation return to consolidation/aggregation over time.

Ladies you need to watch my film "How to Marry a Millionaire" for some pointers.

Just in case you encounter mista Tea. A man of such insight should not be allowed to escape your embrace.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[winner69]

Ladies you need to watch my film "How to Marry a Millionaire" for some pointers.

Just in case you encounter mista Tea. A man of such insight should not be allowed to escape your embrace.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Very perceptive of you as usual Marilyn

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Upward price momentum continuing into the much anticipated earnings. Fully expect the weekly bull flag to play out, however it'll be driven by what's announced.

[sb9]

Upward price momentum continuing into the much anticipated earnings. Fully expect the weekly bull flag to play out, however it'll be driven by what's announced.

Trade depth suggests we may test previous highs of 2.70s range as seen in Dec'21 when they announced about property sale.

[mikelee]

But hopefully it doesn't crash back down like last time though. :p

[snigmac]

But hopefully it doesn't crash back down like last time though. :p

Doubt it. It's too close to the announcement that there will either be a share buy back and/or divdend.

The pub patron was neutral on Sky TV but positive/friendly on MistaTea.

[RTM]

Cancel 1 in 10 shares and pay us $2.86 per cancelled.

Maybe they don’t even need to cancel shares ?
Just had A$2.65 returned to me from Boral. No cancellation of shares at all.
I think this is first time I’ve had i5 occur like this, apparently Aussie IRD etc happy that it is a capital return, therefore not taxed,

[RTM]

…. what better way to convince them by also paying out a dividend at the same time!!

they may struggle to justify that if they dont, given they are sitting on a pile of cash.

Get in quick for the lolly scramble .

Happy holder!!


Yes....Boral are paying a dividend as well.

[sb9]

Hit 2.70 sooner than I tht...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Someone flicked the switch - $2.70. Leaky ship?

[sb9]

Combination of Instos buying and FOMO kicking in I guess..

[Vitamin_A]

.....more likely someone has seen something that shouldn't have (well, not until 24 February) and told a mate who told a mate.

[jimdog31]

good volume to close

269
50,000
17:11
SP

[airedale]

2 Degrees parent Trilogy has gone in to a trading halt.

[snigmac]

2 Degrees parent Trilogy has gone in to a trading halt.

They have been in a trading halt since late 2021.

[Balance]

Combination of Instos buying and FOMO kicking in I guess..

SKT is a NZ50 index stock. Instos are going to have to buy in so they do not underperform now that SKT is on the up and up.

$3.00 by Feb 24?

[mistaTea]

SKT is a NZ50 index stock. Instos are going to have to buy in so they do not underperform now that SKT is on the up and up.


But we thought that last time when the SP rocketed you $2.70+ and it still came crashing down!

Maybe Johnnythestallion will have some insights. He is a TA and has been on point so far.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

But we thought that last time when the SP rocketed you $2.70+ and it still came crashing down!

Maybe Johnnythestallion will have some insights. He is a TA and has been on point so far.

A stock always pulls back after a strong run. What is important is how much it pulls back. The more it pulls back, the lower the probability of it going on to make new highs.

It seems like SKT pulled back a large amount, however it was actually in the range for a continuation pattern (weekly bull flag i.e. less that 38% retracement and hold EMA12). This means continuation to new highs is favoured probability wise. In fact it retraced to my accumulate target pretty much to the penny. Adjusting my long term portfolio I allowed myself to add even more (after trimming other NZX positions) and I most certainly loaded up the swing trading account.

Can't predict what will happen, but after watching so many charts this is what I see as most probable... We won't immediately break to new highs, instead will reject from resistance initially. This will give us a daily trend change which still hasn't occurred, thereby firming up a support level. We will then break out some time next week prior to the announcement. But all this doesn't really matter as either way true value will be shown on the 23rd.

[snigmac]

A stock always pulls back after a strong run. What is important is how much it pulls back. The more it pulls back, the lower the probability of it going on to make new highs.

It seems like SKT pulled back a large amount, however it was actually in the range for a continuation pattern (weekly bull flag i.e. less that 38% retracement and hold EMA12). This means continuation to new highs is favoured probability wise. In fact it retraced to my accumulate target pretty much to the penny. Adjusting my long term portfolio I allowed myself to add even more (after trimming other NZX positions) and I most certainly loaded up the swing trading account.

Can't predict what will happen, but after watching so many charts this is what I see as most probable... We won't immediately break to new highs, instead will reject from resistance initially. This will give us a daily trend change which still hasn't occurred, thereby firming up a support level. We will then break out some time next week prior to the announcement. But all this doesn't really matter as either way true value will be shown on the 23rd.

"true value will be shown on the 23rd" I agree with this lol. Would be great if something happened earlier.

[sb9]

SKT is a NZ50 index stock. Instos are going to have to buy in so they do not underperform now that SKT is on the up and up.

$3.00 by Feb 24?

Could be sooner, kicking into gear were we left off y'day...

[Balance]

Could be sooner, kicking into gear were we left off y'day...

Another 9% to go to make $3.00 - looks achievable.

Still rather light volumes which means that I stop are going to have to pay up to get stock if they feel the ‘underweight’ burn!

[mistaTea]

Another 9% to go to make $3.00 - looks achievable.

Still rather light volumes which means that I stop are going to have to pay up to get stock if they feel the ‘underweight’ burn!

If the SP increases at just 2% a day each day between now and the HY Results it would hit $3.30...

[Habits]

SKT is a NZ50 index stock. Instos are going to have to buy in so they do not underperform now that SKT is on the up and up.

$3.00 by Feb 24?


I have a truck load of these I can sell to instos.... after the price has ramped up big time. 3.50?

[mistaTea]

I have a truck load of these I can sell to instos.... after the price has ramped up big time. 3.50?

Hard to really gauge if the SP movement currently observed is down to instos. If they are, they are hardly loading up their own trucks given the relatively low turnover.

And that is the thing with low trading volumes...it doesn't take much change to significantly change the SP in the short term (and that goes in both directions btw).

A bit of a boost in quoted value a couple of weeks out from the HY results (and anticipated capital management plan) should be of no real surprise. Of course there was going to be some late interest from those hoping to make a quick and easy buck.

[mistaTea]

Just had a quick look at the Balance Sheet again.



As of 30 June 2021 they had $35M cash on the books
We just sold the campus for $56M. Cash settlement in March. Let's just round that down to $50M for our purposes because there will be agents fees and lawyers fees etc to pay (we won't be paying $6M, but I just want to keep the numbers round).
Revised FY22 EBITDA is in the range of $150M - $160M. So let's take the midpoint of $155M. Deduct $45M CAPEX, $25M tax and $37M lease liabilities = $48M FCF. Divide that by two for the HY results (not completely accurate because Sky get an influx of cash at certain points of the year when people pay upfront for Annual Passes of NEON and Sky Sport NOW - but 'good enough' for our purposes.)
So we have $35M cash + $50M or so net proceeds from the campus sale + $24M FCF generated by 31 December 2021 = $109M available cash. This does not include any additional FCF generated in Jan and Feb which will only appear in the FY results.
$109M available cash MINUS $50M tax free capital return MINUS $20M dividend leaves $39M cash in the bank. Plenty of money for working capital requirements and other opportunities. Remember: the $48M FCF calculation earlier already takes into account the full $45M they plan to spend on CAPEX projects in FY22.
They will generate another $24M FCF by 30 June 2022. Depending on the % of FCF that Bowman comits as dividends we could get another $15-$20M at the FY results. A total $35M dividend (lower end) at a 5% yield would imply a $700M market capitalisation (~$4/share based on current shares outstanding).

[LoungeLizzard]

Just had a quick look at the Balance Sheet again.



As of 30 June 2021 they had $35M cash on the books
We just sold the campus for $56M. Cash settlement in March. Let's just round that down to $50M for our purposes because there will be agents fees and lawyers fees etc to pay (we won't be paying $6M, but I just want to keep the numbers round).
Revised FY22 EBITDA is in the range of $150M - $160M. So let's take the midpoint of $155M. Deduct $45M CAPEX, $25M tax and $37M lease liabilities = $48M FCF. Divide that by two for the HY results (not completely accurate because Sky get an influx of cash at certain points of the year when people pay upfront for Annual Passes of NEON and Sky Sport NOW - but 'good enough' for our purposes.)
So we have $35M cash + $50M or so net proceeds from the campus sale + $24M FCF generated by 31 December 2021 = $109M available cash. This does not include any additional FCF generated in Jan and Feb which will only appear in the FY results.
$109M available cash MINUS $50M tax free capital return MINUS $20M dividend leaves $39M cash in the bank. Plenty of money for working capital requirements and other opportunities. Remember: the $48M FCF calculation earlier already takes into account the full $45M they plan to spend on CAPEX projects in FY22.
They will generate another $24M FCF by 30 June 2022. Depending on the % of FCF that Bowman comits as dividends we could get another $15-$20M at the FY results. A total $35M dividend (lower end) at a 5% yield would imply a $700M market capitalisation (~$4/share based on current shares outstanding).



Can't argue with any of that. The fly in the ointment is the Board themselves and their history of being tone-deaf to shareholders concerns, not to mention general incompetence that all but destroyed the company. I think they would be right to be a little bit conservative in returning capital back to shareholders in order to build up a bit more of a war-chest, but 24/2 is the real test as to whether they are now prepared - and have the confidence - to reward long suffering shareholders (the owners).

[jimdog31]

A stock always pulls back after a strong run. What is important is how much it pulls back. The more it pulls back, the lower the probability of it going on to make new highs.

It seems like SKT pulled back a large amount, however it was actually in the range for a continuation pattern (weekly bull flag i.e. less that 38% retracement and hold EMA12). This means continuation to new highs is favoured probability wise. In fact it retraced to my accumulate target pretty much to the penny. Adjusting my long term portfolio I allowed myself to add even more (after trimming other NZX positions) and I most certainly loaded up the swing trading account.

Can't predict what will happen, but after watching so many charts this is what I see as most probable... We won't immediately break to new highs, instead will reject from resistance initially. This will give us a daily trend change which still hasn't occurred, thereby firming up a support level. We will then break out some time next week prior to the announcement. But all this doesn't really matter as either way true value will be shown on the 23rd.

You're some kind of Marty Mcfly JTH.

[sb9]

Just had a quick look at the Balance Sheet again.



As of 30 June 2021 they had $35M cash on the books
We just sold the campus for $56M. Cash settlement in March. Let's just round that down to $50M for our purposes because there will be agents fees and lawyers fees etc to pay (we won't be paying $6M, but I just want to keep the numbers round).
Revised FY22 EBITDA is in the range of $150M - $160M. So let's take the midpoint of $155M. Deduct $45M CAPEX, $25M tax and $37M lease liabilities = $48M FCF. Divide that by two for the HY results (not completely accurate because Sky get an influx of cash at certain points of the year when people pay upfront for Annual Passes of NEON and Sky Sport NOW - but 'good enough' for our purposes.)
So we have $35M cash + $50M or so net proceeds from the campus sale + $24M FCF generated by 31 December 2021 = $109M available cash. This does not include any additional FCF generated in Jan and Feb which will only appear in the FY results.
$109M available cash MINUS $50M tax free capital return MINUS $20M dividend leaves $39M cash in the bank. Plenty of money for working capital requirements and other opportunities. Remember: the $48M FCF calculation earlier already takes into account the full $45M they plan to spend on CAPEX projects in FY22.
They will generate another $24M FCF by 30 June 2022. Depending on the % of FCF that Bowman comits as dividends we could get another $15-$20M at the FY results. A total $35M dividend (lower end) at a 5% yield would imply a $700M market capitalisation (~$4/share based on current shares outstanding).



Well articulated analysis in there MT. Hope SKT board come 70% close to this.

[mistaTea]

Can't argue with any of that. The fly in the ointment is the Board themselves and their history of being tone-deaf to shareholders concerns, not to mention general incompetence that all but destroyed the company. I think they would be right to be a little bit conservative in returning capital back to shareholders in order to build up a bit more of a war-chest, but 24/2 is the real test as to whether they are now prepared - and have the confidence - to reward long suffering shareholders (the owners).

By my calcs they would still have close to $50M war chest by the FY results.

Unless they have a compelling reason to hold more cash than that, they need to return capital as I outlined above without delay.

[mistaTea]

https://www.skygroup.sky/en-gb/article/comcast-and-viacomcbs-announce-full-regulatory-approval-for-skyshowtime

More consolidation…

[mistaTea]

Is it gay month?

Sky logo looking a bit camp...

https://www.sky.co.nz/

[mistaTea]

And we can finally retire all of those video tapes...

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/joe-kelly-general-manager-at-damsmart-on-converting-tens-of-thousands-of-hours-of-sky-tvs-sports-coverage-from-the-last-30-years/

[jimdog31]

And we can finally retire all of those video tapes...

https://www.newstalkzb.co.nz/on-air/mike-hosking-breakfast/audio/joe-kelly-general-manager-at-damsmart-on-converting-tens-of-thousands-of-hours-of-sky-tvs-sports-coverage-from-the-last-30-years/

This is prob what Sophie meant when they suddenly realised they could cut a bunch of costs

[jimdog31]

Is it gay month?

Sky logo looking a bit camp...

https://www.sky.co.nz/

That will impress the largely conservative satellite subscriber base.

[mistaTea]

That will impress the largely conservative satellite subscriber base.

Now Sophie just needs to double down on her use of Te Reo to ensure they are satisfied customers!

[jimdog31]

Now Sophie just needs to double down on her use of Te Reo to ensure they are satisfied customers!

Feb 24: WE ARE PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT WE ARE SPENDING $50M REBRANDING TO THE TE REO TRANSLATION OF SKY......

[mistaTea]

Feb 24: WE ARE PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT WE ARE SPENDING $50M REBRANDING TO THE TE REO TRANSLATION OF SKY......

More like that have created another 175M shares and gifted them to Iwi so we can have ‘co-governance’…

[mistaTea]

Alright that's is...where the Hell has Stallion Johnny gone?

He has some...explaining to do... :D

[jimdog31]

Alright that's is...where the Hell has Stallion Johnny gone?

He has some...explaining to do... :D

Nah he doesnt he called thsi!

[jimdog31]

A stock always pulls back after a strong run. What is important is how much it pulls back. The more it pulls back, the lower the probability of it going on to make new highs.

It seems like SKT pulled back a large amount, however it was actually in the range for a continuation pattern (weekly bull flag i.e. less that 38% retracement and hold EMA12). This means continuation to new highs is favoured probability wise. In fact it retraced to my accumulate target pretty much to the penny. Adjusting my long term portfolio I allowed myself to add even more (after trimming other NZX positions) and I most certainly loaded up the swing trading account.

Can't predict what will happen, but after watching so many charts this is what I see as most probable... We won't immediately break to new highs, instead will reject from resistance initially. This will give us a daily trend change which still hasn't occurred, thereby firming up a support level. We will then break out some time next week prior to the announcement. But all this doesn't really matter as either way true value will be shown on the 23rd.

THis looks to be accurate

[mistaTea]

Can't predict what will happen, but after watching so many charts this is what I see as most probable... We won't immediately break to new highs, instead will reject from resistance initially. This will give us a daily trend change which still hasn't occurred, thereby firming up a support level. We will then break out some time next week prior to the announcement. But all this doesn't really matter as either way true value will be shown on the 23rd.


Jesus Christ! He really did call it!

Stallion Johnny for Chairman!!!

[mistaTea]

Sis man, I hope Spark don't pay through the nose again to keep their Netflix deal exclusive.

Sky TV need to add it to their entertainment bundles like Sky UK.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/new-sky-deal-gives-customers-23038512

And hopefully we can expand our Disney+ deal. Right now it is 'free' with a 12 month broadband plan, but it would be nice if I could renew it at a discounted price.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sis man, I hope Spark don't pay through the nose again to keep their Netflix deal exclusive.

Sky TV need to add it to their entertainment bundles like Sky UK.

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/whats-on/whats-on-news/new-sky-deal-gives-customers-23038512

And hopefully we can expand our Disney+ deal. Right now it is 'free' with a 12 month broadband plan, but it would be nice if I could renew it at a discounted price.

To be honest Sky need to sort out their own bundles first - Why is it people can get Spark broadband and get a discount on a bundled NEON subscription, and yet Sky Broadband does not offer a bundle with NEON (Which they own of course in case anyone forgot).

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Jesus Christ! He really did call it!

Stallion Johnny for Chairman!!!

Funnily enough the most likely scenario plays out most of the time :). Also full disclosure I didn't sell my swing trade position at that level with the expectation of adding again lower as I believe the risk of not holding that position overnight is too great. Very happy to sit and wait on this one (which is very unusual for me).

Just like the drop from $2.75 to $2.35 was very healthy weekly consolidation, the drop from $2.75 to the $2.60-$2.65 region is very healthy daily consolidation (in that whole run up we never changed the daily trend). Ideal scenario is a daily bullflag forming here, so that a daily and weekly bullflag breaks at the same time (i.e. most catalyst for momentum upwards). If I had to guess again, I'd say we hold this $2.60-$2.65 level for 2-3 days to allow the daily EMA12 to catch up, then we're off to the races. However price action is low volume, weird trading and potentially news driven, so probabilities around technicals are less clear imo.

If I didn't already have a position I would certainly be scouting one right here.

[Balance]

Funnily enough the most likely scenario plays out most of the time :). Also full disclosure I didn't sell my swing trade position at that level with the expectation of adding again lower as I believe the risk of not holding that position overnight is too great. Very happy to sit and wait on this one (which is very unusual for me).

Just like the drop from $2.75 to $2.35 was very healthy weekly consolidation, the drop from $2.75 to the $2.60-$2.65 region is very healthy daily consolidation (in that whole run up we never changed the daily trend). Ideal scenario is a daily bullflag forming here, so that a daily and weekly bullflag breaks at the same time (i.e. most catalyst for momentum upwards). If I had to guess again, I'd say we hold this $2.60-$2.65 level for 2-3 days to allow the daily EMA12 to catch up, then we're off to the races. However price action is low volume, weird trading and potentially news driven, so probabilities around technicals are less clear imo.

If I didn't already have a position I would certainly be scouting one right here.

Well called, JTH.

SKT certainly seems to be building up a solid base to move towards the $3.00 level as a first stop.

[jimdog31]

The bots are at play

No sellers at 262 but individual parcels going through


262
1
15:19



262
95
15:18



262
2
15:09



262
129
15:09



262
139
15:07



262
1
15:04



262
43
15:02



262
10
14:59



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:5

[mistaTea]

To be honest Sky need to sort out their own bundles first - Why is it people can get Spark broadband and get a discount on a bundled NEON subscription, and yet Sky Broadband does not offer a bundle with NEON (Which they own of course in case anyone forgot).

Agree with you here.

The fact that we have had broadband for a while now and still don't bundle it with NEON/SSN is astounding.

If I was the Product Owner for streaming services I would have sorted this out months ago.

Among other things.

[jimdog31]

The bots are at play

No sellers at 262 but individual parcels going through


262
1
15:19



262
95
15:18



262
2
15:09



262
129
15:09



262
139
15:07



262
1
15:04



262
43
15:02



262
10
14:59



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:58



262
1
14:5




More bots driving down!



262
1
16:44



259
61
16:44



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



262
1
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
4
16:43

[mistaTea]

More bots driving down!



262
1
16:44



259
61
16:44



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



262
1
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
4
16:43



Maybe another opportunity next week to load up the truck again…

Thanks bots!

[jimdog31]

Maybe another opportunity next week to load up the truck again…

Thanks bots!

A nice late one to finish



260
59,216
17:26
SP

[BIRMANBOY]

These will be sharesies orders..thousands, if not hundreds of thousands new investors buying in to the Investment Dream. Helping us all by pouring money $10,$50, $200 at a time into the market and turning the Share market into something accessible to all as opposed to just another club for the well off. Interesting to note that it has definitely held prices up by enabling larger sellers to sell off larger parces by them being "nibbled off 10/20/30 shares at a time. Before Sharesies, larger sellers were at the mercy of only a few buyers in a falling market. Obviously worked in a similar fashion going up. So perhaps not so much Bots but there were probably a few tots having their retirement accounts bumped up my mum and dad. :)
More bots driving down!



262
1
16:44



259
61
16:44



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
2
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



262
1
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
1
16:43



259
3
16:43



259
4
16:43



259
4
16:43

[jimdog31]

These will be sharesies orders..thousands, if not hundreds of thousands new investors buying in to the Investment Dream. Helping us all by pouring money $10,$50, $200 at a time into the market and turning the Share market into something accessible to all as opposed to just another club for the well off. Interesting to note that it has definitely held prices up by enabling larger sellers to sell off larger parces by them being "nibbled off 10/20/30 shares at a time. Before Sharesies, larger sellers were at the mercy of only a few buyers in a falling market. Obviously worked in a similar fashion going up. So perhaps not so much Bots but there were probably a few tots having their retirement accounts bumped up my mum and dad. :)

hmmm im not so sure. these were buys and sells of 1 x share parcels at a time.

did multiple sharesies users all decide to buy and sell such low qtys at a time?

there was no shares available to buy at that price at that time.

[mistaTea]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127587844/freeview-satellite-customers-face-another-10-years-of-sd-viewing

I didn't actually realise you could only get SD if you use a Freeview box.

Sky has been HD for a while now and the new Optus satellie will allow 4K and 8K...

[RTM]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/127587844/freeview-satellite-customers-face-another-10-years-of-sd-viewing

I didn't actually realise you could only get SD if you use a Freeview box.

Sky has been HD for a while now and the new Oprus satellie will allow 4K and 8K...

Yes...bloody annoying and was a shock for us when we moved North. But Freeview via aerial was HD when we were in Auckland.
But that service not available up here.

[mistaTea]

https://www.mediaweek.com.au/sam-neill-in-new-foxtel-brand-campaign-with-ooh-news-corp-and-on-socials/

B@stards at Foxtel got to Sam before us :D

Video for the ad here on linkedin (https://www.linkedin.com/posts/patrick-delany-18b0b560_today-we-launch-a-new-foxtel-brand-campaign-activity-6898833927298011136-YNFQ).

Will be interesting to see how we market our new STB.

Pilot group should start soon with a full launch by mid year if Sophie's comments are anything to go by.

[Dlownz]

Yes...bloody annoying and was a shock for us when we moved North. But Freeview via aerial was HD when we were in Auckland.
But that service not available up here.
Just to clarify you can get HD free view if using the right free view box and theold school sky aerial. Yes the satalite dish is only SD

[Marilyn Munroe]

Have you consulted the freeview terrestrial coverage maps on freeviewnz.tv?

Marginal reception areas can be enhanced with high gain aerials, pre amplifiers and RG6 cable leads.

There will be someone local who has tried and succeeded/failed to get Freeview terrestrial who can advise.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

PS Chopping down a tree which blocks your line of sight to the transmitter can sometimes help.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/ma-perfect-storm-expected-continue-over-2022

NZ expected to remain red hot this year in terms of M&A activity...MinterWllisonRuddWatts...

********************
Public markets
Looking on the public side of the market, might the aforementioned supply of capital through global private equity players result in more NZX-listed businesses being taken private?
“We have such a small public market here in New Zealand so it's not hard to form a trend,” said Millar. “Could there be some take-privates? I think that there could be, I think there'd be a few assets trading right now where they could be very viable, and take-privates could come out of that.”
However, for private company investors looking for an exit, a private sale is currently much more attractive than an IPO.
“It's hard to see sellers picking the IPO route over the private route at the moment.”
*********************

I think this points to any deals with Sky being a straight buyout. Offer $x per share to take the business private (as opposed to using Sky's shares as currency to do a merger and remain a listed business. Just easier/cleaner to take Sky off the NZX/ASX).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just reading through the Infratil investor day material. In the Vodafone deck they mention they are in advanced stages of preparing a possible separation of the tower component of its mobile network. That is the “passive” assets (the towers and tower sites themselves) of the network into a new company that will enable other companies to install their own mobile network equipment on the towers.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/387270/364500.pdf

13517

Edit to add: Not sure this is really relevant to Sky, as anyone that wanted to build out a new network would not only have to install their own network equipment but also of course would need its own spectrum rights which Sky doesn’t have. Really this is more for 2 Degrees & Spark to use if they wanted.

[bottomfeeder]

Come on results day. Cant wait. I feel apart from financials, some strategy for the future will be announced.

[mistaTea]

Just reading through the Infratil investor day material. In the Vodafone deck they mention they are in advanced stages of preparing a possible separation of the tower component of its mobile network. That is the “passive” assets (the towers and tower sites themselves) of the network into a new company that will enable other companies to install their own mobile network equipment on the towers.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/IFT/387270/364500.pdf

13517

Edit to add: Not sure this is really relevant to Sky, as anyone that wanted to build out a new network would not only have to install their own network equipment but also of course would need its own spectrum rights which Sky doesn’t have. Really this is more for 2 Degrees & Spark to use if they wanted.

One way or another, Sky will enter mobile.

But I can't see them making the CAPEX required to install their own kit on Vodafone's towers.

In the absence of a takeover by 2D, the more likely scenario for Sky is to do a wholesale mobile deal like they have for broadband. I think 2D is the logical partner given their relationship with Orcon...but I did say a while back that I believe Vodafone would fight hard for the business.

Great for Sky.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Funnily enough the most likely scenario plays out most of the time :). Also full disclosure I didn't sell my swing trade position at that level with the expectation of adding again lower as I believe the risk of not holding that position overnight is too great. Very happy to sit and wait on this one (which is very unusual for me).

Just like the drop from $2.75 to $2.35 was very healthy weekly consolidation, the drop from $2.75 to the $2.60-$2.65 region is very healthy daily consolidation (in that whole run up we never changed the daily trend). Ideal scenario is a daily bullflag forming here, so that a daily and weekly bullflag breaks at the same time (i.e. most catalyst for momentum upwards). If I had to guess again, I'd say we hold this $2.60-$2.65 level for 2-3 days to allow the daily EMA12 to catch up, then we're off to the races. However price action is low volume, weird trading and potentially news driven, so probabilities around technicals are less clear imo.

If I didn't already have a position I would certainly be scouting one right here.

Well that daily bullflag most certainly didn't play out! The size of this drop and lowish volume suggests an equilibrium will most likely form, so we are looking for a daily higher low above $2.35. We would then expected to trade in that range and tighten up until it breaks out (in either direction). Looks like buy volume has appeared at the $2.45 level so we may see the daily higher low set here.

Anyway, this is all just noise until results / news on the 24th (unless unusually large volume starts being traded).

[mistaTea]

Well that daily bullflag most certainly didn't play out! The size of this drop and lowish volume suggests an equilibrium will most likely form, so we are looking for a daily higher low above $2.35. We would then expected to trade in that range and tighten up until it breaks out (in either direction). Looks like buy volume has appeared at the $2.45 level so we may see the daily higher low set here.

Anyway, this is all just noise until results / news on the 24th (unless unusually large volume starts being traded).

You promised us all overnight riches stallion!!

We are all VERY upset with you right now…

[JohnnyTheHorse]

You promised us all overnight riches stallion!!

We are all VERY upset with you right now…

Remind me to promise you overnight riches on the 23rd.

[mistaTea]

Remind me to promise you overnight riches on the 23rd.

Then all will be forgiven…

[Entrep]

Anyone know how much of the call centre they let go? Wait times have become a joke that it's not worthwhile to even bother calling. They used to be quite good, so I'm assuming this has resulted in some decent $$$ savings.

[mistaTea]

Anyone know how much of the call centre they let go? Wait times have become a joke that it's not worthwhile to even bother calling. They used to be quite good, so I'm assuming this has resulted in some decent $$$ savings.

Maybe staffing levels are normal but they are just inundated with New Business enquiries… 🤣🤣🤣

[jimdog31]

Maybe staffing levels are normal but they are just inundated with New Business enquiries… 🤣🤣🤣

na , they are all doing mahi from their whares now so it takes awhile to get through

[mistaTea]

na , they are all doing mahi from their whares now so it takes awhile to get through

They are probably all on rostered time off to have te Reo lessons as mandated by Sophie…

I doubt that many cuzzies pay for our service but hey! It’s all about the aroha baby…

[mikelee]

Must say I was quite surprised too when I see the closing SP this morning. I only checked once yesterday and it was $2.59 at the time. Maybe this is all part of the global trend where the market is over reacting to Ukrain. However, I personally don't quite get why high oil prices should have any significant impact on SKT. :confused:

[mistaTea]

Must say I was quite surprised too when I see the closing SP this morning. I only checked once yesterday and it was $2.59 at the time. Maybe this is all part of the global trend where the market is over reacting to Ukrain. However, I personally don't quite get why high oil prices should have any significant impact on SKT. :confused:

Ultimately, all things that are inflationary can put pressure on people’s discretionary spend.

That can make it more likely that people will cut back on or ditch things like sky tv altogether.

But I suspect Sky is just following the overall market trends down.

[mistaTea]

https://www.nbr.co.nz/story/vodafone-advanced-celltower-sale-preparation

Our mate at Vodafone has given the Orcon/2D merger his blessing.

Paris also described the telco market as “competitive but sensible”, saying he welcomed the merger of Two Degrees and Vocus/Orcon.
“We expect the merger to ensure competitive intensity is there but we don’t expect too many changes in our own strategy,” he said.

[Quantitative Easing]

Someone that used to work at the commerce commission told me that the commission used to be in bed with spark and they had a revolving door where people that worked at the commission ended getting jobs and moving to spark. The commission was easy on Spark whereas he said that there were a lot of enquiries done on Vodafone by the commission. That bias towards Vodafone and preferential treatment towards spark was what probably caused the failed voda/sky merger.

[mistaTea]

Someone that used to work at the commerce commission told me that the commission used to be in bed with spark and they had a revolving door where people that worked at the commission ended getting jobs and moving to spark. The commission was easy on Spark whereas he said that there were a lot of enquiries done on Vodafone by the commission. That bias towards Vodafone and preferential treatment towards spark was what probably caused the failed voda/sky merger.

That is terrible if that is true.

Even still, that voda/sky merger almost got through...

Sky TV is already classified as a telco now anyway (https://www.reseller.co.nz/article/692895/why-sky-tv-suddenly-new-zealand-eighth-largest-telco/). I can't see the comcom having grounds to block Sky from expanding its telco capacity by M&A a second time around.

[mistaTea]

And how the hell does Vista - a business that ultimately relies on cinema viewing - have a market cap ~$45M higher that Sky TV?

Even before Covid they were only earning about $12M a year!

https://www.vistagroup.co.nz/downloads/VGL-Ann-Fin-Stats-2019-NZX-R.pdf

Been running at a loss the last two years!

You would think that profitable and cashflow positive Sky TV (which also produces more than 6 times the revenue Vista was able to even pre-Covid) would have a quoted value much higher than Vista - especially in the current environment when a lot of people still don't want to sit inside a confined room with strangers.

[bottomfeeder]

Put an order in for 5k at 243, only filled for 952. I have a feeling it will not get there again, on the run up to next week. Steady increases from here is my guess. $3 here we come.

[RGR367]

And how the hell does Vista - a business that ultimately relies on cinema viewing - have a market cap ~$45M higher that Sky TV?

Even before Covid they were only earning about $12M a year!

https://www.vistagroup.co.nz/downloads/VGL-Ann-Fin-Stats-2019-NZX-R.pdf

Been running at a loss the last two years!

You would think that profitable and cashflow positive Sky TV (which also produces more than 6 times the revenue Vista was able to even pre-Covid) would have a quoted value much higher than Vista - especially in the current environment when a lot of people still don't want to sit inside a confined room with strangers.

We should never compare VGL with SKT. They're completely different beasts.

disc: holder of both

[mistaTea]

We should never compare VGL with SKT. They're completely different beasts.

disc: holder of both

We do have to be careful making cross-sector comparisons...

But in this case, one company has significantly higher Earing Power than the other yet is 'worth' a lot less so far as the capital markets are concerned.

If you subscribe to the belief that any business (regardless of what industry it is in) is worth the discounted value of all future cashflows...then you are left scratching your head when you see examples like this.

Especially in this case where cinema's have been nailed due to the pandemic while companies like Sky have seen significant subscription growth as people don't want to go to the cinema as much and are unable to go see live sport events and prefer to watch from home.

[jimdog31]

We do have to be careful making cross-sector comparisons...

But in this case, one company has significantly higher Earing Power than the other yet is 'worth' a lot less so far as the capital markets are concerned.

If you subscribe to the belief that any business (regardless of what industry it is in) is worth the discounted value of all future cashflows...then you are left scratching your head when you see examples like this.

Especially in this case where cinema's have been nailed due to the pandemic while companies like Sky have seen significant subscription growth as people don't want to go to the cinema as much and are unable to go see live sport events and prefer to watch from home.

In case any of you start to think that maybe Mista has done an Ogg and vanished, he's just had to go and self isolate for the next 30 days as he caught a really bad bout of sharetrader omicron!

aka he was a naughty boy and wont be here for awhile , but tht doesn't mean he's not supporting our wild conspiracy theories from the comfort of his lockdown.

Johnny the stallion, in his absence, you have been promoted to the pre game day analysis and we expect bidaily updates on the Trading analysis of this bad boy!

[sb9]

Damn, wonder what got him into trouble.

[snigmac]

I'm surprised noone has commented on the Silver Lake and NZR deal.

[sb9]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-new-zealand-rugby-and-silver-lake-agree-to-deal/7J422LNNW6CHOGP6ZENBCLQEPY/

The New Zealand Rugby (NZR) Board and the New Zealand Rugby Players Association (NZRPA) Board today announced that they have approved a partnership agreement between Silver Lake, NZR and the NZRPA.

Under the terms of the agreement, which remains subject to ratification by the Provincial Unions and Māori Rugby Board, Silver Lake will invest NZ$200 million in a new commercial entity that will house all revenue-generating assets of NZR, with additional co-investment of up to NZ$100 million to be offered to New Zealand-based institutional investors later in 2022.

[winner69]

no test cricket on Sky

a South Africa test is the be-all and end-all ......and Sky have let it's customers down by not fighting for coverage hard enough

Suppose a few more subscribers will cancel their subs

[Not The Chosen One]

no test cricket on Sky

a South Africa test is the be-all and end-all ......and Sky have let it's customers down by not fighting for coverage hard enough

Suppose a few more subscribers will cancel their subs

NZC did themselves no favours by effectively cutting themselves off from a good chunk of fans that can only choose between having Sky or Spark Sport but not both. Ended up getting a 7 day free trial which I'll cancel after this test. The Bangladesh series and upcoming tour by Netherlands ain't worth paying for

[freebee]

NZC did themselves no favours by effectively cutting themselves off from a good chunk of fans that can only choose between having Sky or Spark Sport but not both. Ended up getting a 7 day free trial which I'll cancel after this test. The Bangladesh series and upcoming tour by Netherlands ain't worth paying for

Trying to watch the test now, fantastic bowling from Henners but the quality from Spark is terrible. Constantly buffering like an old time movie. Last time i watched the cricket i had chromecast probs, so at least i can view it this time. NZC really shot themselves in the foot going with Spark(extra cost to fans to watch)and Spark getting complaints from its loyal customers not ideal all round imo

[winner69]

Trying to watch the test now, fantastic bowling from Henners but the quality from Spark is terrible. Constantly buffering like an old time movie. Last time i watched the cricket i had chromecast probs, so at least i can view it this time. NZC really shot themselves in the foot going with Spark(extra cost to fans to watch)and Spark getting complaints from its loyal customers not ideal all round imo

Henry 7-23 pretty impressive …equals best in nz by a nzer

If Trent comes back might be last test for a while …like Ajax not a good trick to set records

[freebee]

Henry 7-23 pretty impressive …equals best in nz by a nzer

If Trent comes back might be last test for a while …like Ajax not a good trick to set records


Haha yes pretty good from our back up bowler. How has your picture quality been Winner

[winner69]

Haha yes pretty good from our back up bowler. How has your picture quality been Winner

Gave up watching

[Sideshow Bob]

Premier League to Sky....:)

Sky secures exclusive Premier League football rights in NZ - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387499)

Welly Phoenix even get a mention in the release....:lol:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Premier League to Sky....:)

Sky secures exclusive Premier League football rights in NZ - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387499)

nice win for sky!

[Greekwatchdog]

Now thats a win. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387499

[Quantitative Easing]

Spark sport are on the brink of capitulation. Spark wont tolerate their loss leader for much longer. I don't think Spark even bothered bidding for the football rights.

[ScrappyO]

nice win for sky!

Yes nice win for Sky. Im in the spark sport camp so disappointing for me.

[sb9]

Premier League to Sky....:)

Sky secures exclusive Premier League football rights in NZ - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387499)

Welly Phoenix even get a mention in the release....:lol:

Well done Sophie and team. They're going from strength to strength, making compelling case for some sort of corporate activity.

[Not The Chosen One]

Spark sport are on the brink of capitulation. Spark wont tolerate their loss leader for much longer. I don't think Spark even bothered bidding for the football rights.

I've had a look through the Spark Sport app since I'm taking advantage of their 7 day free trial to watch the cricket while I "work" from home and can see they have bugger all sports. They get the home games only for the cricket, Formula 1, EPL until Sky take that back and a lot of highlights/old games from other sports like NFL and NBA. Basically, if you're an F1 fan or want to pay to watch a handful of Blackcaps games, is there any reason to subscribe?

[Joshuatree]

I wonder how many people have stopped watching cricket altogether since Sparks arrival on the scene, me for one.

[Greekwatchdog]

I wonder how many people have stopped watching cricket altogether since Sparks arrival on the scene, me for one.

I am one. Keep an eye on it thru Cric Info website. Can't stand Sparks commentators.

[mikelee]

Well done Sophie and team. They're going from strength to strength, making compelling case for some sort of corporate activity.

I pray that Ukraine is off the headlines by this time next week. :cool:

[DeathByWarriors]

The Premier League is a big win for Sky because the season is so long (August to May). Unless you're an F1 fan Spark Sport don't really have anything compelling to watch outside of cricket season.

[Balance]

I pray that Ukraine is off the headlines by this time next week. :cool:

Afraid it is going to drag on for months as the US has nothing else to try & convince the Europeans that Russia is a threat, to scuttle the ever closer economic ties being fostered between Russia & the Europeans.

[maclir]

I wonder how many people have stopped watching cricket altogether since Sparks arrival on the scene, me for one.

I watch the cricket on the TAB's site for free.

[Not The Chosen One]

I wonder how many people have stopped watching cricket altogether since Sparks arrival on the scene, me for one.

I'm a big cricket fan and like most, was gutted when Spark took over. NZC needed the money that was offered but the long term consequences of losing new and existing fans could have a bigger effect on the game here. Sky weren't really in a position to outbid Spark although that huge Rugby deal was the one they needed at the time which I believe was around the same time the cricket negotiations were happening.

[Sideshow Bob]

I watch the cricket on the TAB's site for free.

Indeed, worth having a TAB account and having a couple of shekels in it....

[RGR367]

I watch the cricket on the TAB's site for free.

So how long do you camp at TAB to watch the test cricket :cool:

[winner69]

Can't watch the cricket but good we can see cat kickers and rapists play aerial ping pong in the UK ..... Aussies seem to have taken over the term aerial ping pong to describe their national sport

[DeathByWarriors]

Can't watch the cricket but good we can see cat kickers and rapists play aerial ping pong in the UK ..... Aussies seem to have taken over the term aerial ping pong to describe their national sport

They showed a few domestic T20 games on free-to-air TV if you're that keen to watch Scott Kuggeleijn

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I watch the cricket on the TAB's site for free.

LOL! What the hell!!?! Thanks so much for sharing this!

never knew this was an option (and I have a TAB account) - now watching for free on the TAB website. Zero reason to get spark sport now, why would spark be this brain dead to do that deal?

I wouldn’t be surprised if TVNZ were sniffing around a possible spark sport acquisition.

[LoungeLizzard]

Can't watch the cricket but good we can see cat kickers and rapists play aerial ping pong in the UK ..... Aussies seem to have taken over the term aerial ping pong to describe their national sport

It's been said before - SKY were wise not to pay over the odds for NZ Cricket. Spark have shown they are not capable of doing live sport and NZC will have regretted their decision to go with Spark. Given their customer dissatisfaction with the coverage I think Spark will also be looking to get out of live cricket as soon as they can. At which point NZC will go back to SKY with their tail between their legs.
In the meantime, Premier football is a good drawcard - I know a number of people who will get/retain SKY just for the football.

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/why-sky-tvs-english-premier-league-football-rights-win-matters/H6MHOFKMFUMCQINTRCXRVQRZ3Q/

Paywalled

‘Why Sky TV's English Premier League football rights win matters’

Writing is indeed on the wall for Spark Sport, now admitting it is looking for commercial return before bidding for sports rights. Good luck with that!

[Not The Chosen One]

If anyone is missing mistaTea, head over to Hotcopper to get your daily T dose

[Sideshow Bob]

Results tomorrow......:sleep:

[mikelee]

Bit disappointed with the SP so close to the announcement. :(

[LEMON]

Bit disappointed with the SP so close to the announcement. :(

Hopefully, it won't matter tomorrow.
Markets are down everywhere and Russia did just invade its neighbour.

I wasn't expecting to see a rally in the coming days maybe later today we will see some excitement from traders on tomorrows news

[freebee]

Results tomorrow......:sleep:

Yes very exciting!
Is the building unconditional?
Capital return or divvie? both? neither?
Will Silver Lake deal have any bearing on decisions?
Any new investments in the pipeline for increasing future revenue?
A decent part of my portfolio, even bought a few more yesterday so hoping for some (all?) good news for us shareholders tomorrow.
Hopefully the property is signed off so all can be revealed. :)

[Vitamin_A]

If the NZME result is anything to go by, we should see a material re-rating as Instos chase yield (assuming the capital return includes a dividend). Still looks at least a $1.00 per share undervalued.

[Vitamin_A]

If the NZME result is anything to go by, we should see a material re-rating as Instos chase yield (assuming the capital return includes a dividend). Still looks at least a $1.00 per share undervalued.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Easiest money you'll see all year with this price day before announcement. Sounds like most are already at max portfolio allocations to keep accumulating.

I really hope this comments ages well.

[Sideshow Bob]

Easiest money you'll see all year with this price day before announcement. Sounds like most are already at max portfolio allocations to keep accumulating.

I really hope this comments ages well.

My 8 year old daughter thought that too and bought another $100 worth through her Sharsies account this morning at $2.44. Yes, well she might have had a little help.....

[cyclist]

I really hope this comments ages well.

That cracked me up. We do have some history of us all being excited pre-announcement, only to feel very disappointed on the day. Hopefully tomorrow won't be another of those days ...

[DeathByWarriors]

Hopefully, it won't matter tomorrow.
Markets are down everywhere and Russia did just invade its neighbour.

I wasn't expecting to see a rally in the coming days maybe later today we will see some excitement from traders on tomorrows news

Looks like the late rally has started already

[alokdhir]

Exciting time tomorrow ....Whats the best expectations ? May do 20% jump ...better then NZME ??

[winner69]

My 8 year old daughter thought that too and bought another $100 worth through her Sharsies account this morning at $2.44. Yes, well she might have had a little help.....

If the practice of parents / caregivers influencing their children's investing behaviour becomes too prevalent the government might legislate and ban such influencing ....prob 8 Nats would vote against it ;)

[Sideshow Bob]

If the practice of parents / caregivers influencing their children's investing behaviour becomes too prevalent the government might legislate and ban such influencing ....prob 8 Nats would vote against it ;)

Yeah, imagine parents helping their children to save and learn financial basics!! :mellow: Would expect all of the Greens, and most of the Labour party to vote against such capitalist behavour.

If my daughter had her way she would invest in horses (not the TAB kind) or barbies (not the meat cooking kind).

At least she can kinda understand Sky.....

[winner69]

Yeah, imagine parents helping their children to save and learn financial basics!! :mellow: Would expect all of the Greens, and most of the Labour party to vote against such capitalist behavour.

If my daughter had her way she would invest in horses (not the TAB kind) or barbies (not the meat cooking kind).

At least she can kinda understand Sky.....

You are a good Dad .... she will appreciate the learnings (and cash) as she gets older

[Sideshow Bob]

You are a good Dad .... she will appreciate the learnings (and cash) as she gets older

Hopefully she'll have a bit more cash after tomorrow with her SKT. Lets see....

[sb9]

Should try and set time aside to listen to conf call at 10am tomorrow.

[alokdhir]

Last few hours to get before closing today ...tomorrow may open gap up :t_up:

[Shareguy]

Spark removing sport from Kpi’s. Why would they do that I wonder. Looking forward to tom.

[sb9]

Last few hours to get before closing today ...tomorrow may open gap up :t_up:

Better sharpen your notes and knives Bowman, Moloney and Gordon. Expectations are very high from this trio.

[sb9]

Big close before big reveal tomorrow, hope its not case of "buy the rumor and sell the fact".

[DeathByWarriors]

Big close before big reveal tomorrow, hope its not case of "buy the rumor and sell the fact".

There's a lot of gamblers out there

[Joshuatree]

Pros and cons of Mr tea having a holiday on H/C
Cons, missing lots of great posting
Pros ,not missing the direction of his wife undies

[RupertBear]

Pros and cons of Mr tea having a holiday on H/C
Cons, missing lots of great posting
Pros ,not missing the direction of his wife undies

Spot on! :D

[LoungeLizzard]

Pros and cons of Mr tea having a holiday on H/C
Cons, missing lots of great posting
Pros ,not missing the direction of his wife undies

After today's SP gain and with (hopefully) more tomorrow, I doubt MistaTea will have the energy to post anything, once his wife is finished with him:p

[winner69]

Haven’t checked in here for a week or so

Where’s MrT …sold out or something

[ados_nz]

Put in the naughty corner I think - Still very active on HC.

[alokdhir]

Haven’t checked in here for a week or so

Where’s MrT …sold out or something

I want your take on tomorrows announcement please ... Tell us your views and market reaction ....Your views are always spot on

[winner69]

I want your take on tomorrows announcement please ... Tell us your views and market reaction ....Your views are always spot on

No idea mate .....SKT marketwise has a mind of its own .....so anything could happen tomorrow and next week

Got in really cheap about cap raise time and hoping one bagger will become a two bagger ....nor too bad when I know stuff all about what drives sky

So hope tomorrow is all positive

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Given the board has indicated they believe the stock is undervalued, the capital strategy is very likely to be in the form of an on market buyback in my opinion. My guess would be a $30m buyback, with $20m distributed as a tax free capital return on top.

The dividend will also be reinstated, with forecast future dividends giving a yield of minimum 8% at current prices.

Only risk I see is whether the property has closed. I presume they would have had the unconditional date as 5pm today to allow the capital strategy to be presented. Worst case the deal as fallen through and it goes to the next bidder for slightly less, delaying things by a month or two.

On the technical front, $2.75 is the key resistance we need to break through (current double top). A breakout would confirm a monthly bull flag, with a traditionally measured price target of $3.30-3.40. Resistance wise there is a very small amount at $3, but then it's clear all the way up to $4. That $2.75 break should result in an explosive move in my opinion.

Watch for commentary around corporate activity as the wildcard.

[Joshuatree]

Like your combo of F/A and T/A.

[sb9]

Only risk I see is whether the property has closed. I presume they would have had the unconditional date as 5pm today to allow the capital strategy to be presented. Worst case the deal as fallen through and it goes to the next bidder for slightly less, delaying things by a month or two.


Very valid point, surprised not to see any further comment re property since we had sale announcement in Dec last year. Hope its gone smoothly and no major hiccups. This is the only downside from my perspective too.

[Sideshow Bob]

No divvy, property not settled yet.

Sky Announces 2022 Interim Results - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/387836)

Key points of today’s announcement1
 Revenue growth of 4.1%, to $371.7 million (from $356.9 million) as Sky Box revenuecontinues to stabilise and Streaming2revenue grows (the latter up 34%)
 Net profit after tax of $28.3 million from $39.6 million
 On target to deliver total cost savings of $40 to $45 million in FY223, including $31 to $36million in permanent savings, and with further permanent savings targeted from FY23
 Customer growth of 6%, to 983,561 as more New Zealanders choose Sky
 Game-changing new Sky Box on track for delivery into customer homes by mid-2022
 Actively investigating investment opportunities to accelerate business growth Return to paying dividends from FY22 following a return to sustainable free cash flow

[Vitamin_A]

Disappointing to not see a dividend or capital return. More waiting :(

[LoungeLizzard]

Reasonable result but disappointing for shareholders wanting clarity on return of capital. The wait continues....

[snigmac]

Fyi team my understanding is that the property was never due to settle in Feb 2022, we just want a indication that it has gone unconditional.. confirmation of settlement in March is line with announcements and it would indicate that there have been no snags...

[The diver]

“As a result of Sky’s recent performance, and the sale of OSB, Sky had $73.9 million of cashon the balance sheet as of 31 December 2021. The sale of Sky’s Mt Wellington properties,due to settle in March, is expected to provide a further net cash inflow of $55 million.

Looks like we should know by then. Being strung along alot by having to wait until June investor day to find out about the capital allocation.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well that was all a bit anti-climatic.

All the talk of investing in growth and strategic opportunities makes it sound like a big one off capital return is not that likely. With future dividend guidance at 50% of profit at low end, looking at something like a 5% yield on current share price.

[freebee]

As a result of Sky’s recent performance, and the sale of OSB, Sky had $73.9 million of cash
on the balance sheet as of 31 December 2021. The sale of Sky’s Mt Wellington properties,
due to settle in March, is expected to provide a further net cash inflow of $55 million.
Management and the Board continue to assess opportunities to invest capital to accelerate
the growth of the business, generate new revenue streams, and deliver improved returns for
shareholders. As a result, we intend to provide a further update on capital management to
coincide with an investor day to be held in June 2022. Any decisions on capital structure,
including details of any potential capital return, will be subject to market conditions and any
other strategic opportunities that may arise

If i read this part right, it looks like we now wait until June, not sure why so long, they know the figures, property to be settled in March. Didn't we pay someone to have this capital management plan all sorted by now?

[alokdhir]

Fyi team my understanding is that the property was never due to settle in Feb 2022, we just want a indication that it has gone unconditional.. confirmation of settlement in March is line with announcements and it would indicate that there have been no snags...

That is clearly indicated when they included $ 55 Million from property sale in free cash ...so it means property money is final and unconditional and will come to bank in middle march as mentioned in property sale notice

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Okay, so here's my take on things... Very solid result that shows how undervalued Sky is. I believe this will be a catalyst for institutional money to accumulate, given they now have detailed financials to analyse. Take the cash, including the property market cap, off the market cap and you are looking at $300m. Then look at the FCF and NPAT... you get the idea.

Initial disappointment around the capital strategy, BUT we need to read the tea leaves. They have $74m cash on hand as at 31st Dec (excluding the property sale), yet they have decided not to pay a dividend until September. They have enough cash several times over to afford a dividend payment right now, yet they are delaying. They are stalling for a reason. Something is brewing and they are keeping very tight lipped about it. Property setting in March, but no capital update until June... stalling.

Watch this space for "strategic opportunities".

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well that was all a bit anti-climatic.

All the talk of investing in growth and strategic opportunities makes it sound like a big one off capital return is not that likely. With future dividend guidance at 50% of profit at low end, looking at something like a 5% yield on current share price.

You need to take more or less $150m off the market cap for cash and property (essentially now cash).

[snigmac]

Fingers crossed for a Sky and NZR (inc SL) deal as the strategic opportunity.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

That is clearly indicated when they included $ 55 Million from property sale in free cash ...so it means property money is final and unconditional and will come to bank in middle march as mentioned in property sale notice

Property is due to go unconditional tomorrow (per notes to financial statements).