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Popeye
24-08-2022, 09:16 AM
9c div would be a surprise given they have stated they will be dividending between 50 and 80% of free cash flow. They would need a very good reason to depart from that and not destroy whatever credibility they have left. It is not as if they are about to buy Media Works and need to reserve cash for that...

mistaTea
24-08-2022, 09:59 AM
9c div would be a surprise given they have stated they will be dividending between 50 and 80% of free cash flow. They would need a very good reason to depart from that and not destroy whatever credibility they have left. It is not as if they are about to buy Media Works and need to reserve cash for that...

Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.

As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.

I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).

Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).

Total payout 51cps.

Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).

Should see some further uplift in SP.

bottomfeeder
24-08-2022, 10:46 AM
Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.

As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.

I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).

Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).

Total payout 51cps.

Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).

Should see some further uplift in SP.

Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.

mistaTea
24-08-2022, 10:49 AM
Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.

Yes, I agree. Buyback at current market cap far less appealing than when we were ~$400M.

If they do a buyback instead of special dividend I suspect the market may feel a tad disappointed.

Would be great if we got a big special dividend payout and then an upgrade to future dividend policy like Spark have just done : 80%-100% if FCF.

That should see the stock get more interest.

Balance
24-08-2022, 10:50 AM
Too late for a buyback. As soon as return to dividends is announced the firm SP, will make a buyback less effective.

A return to dividend is a given.

Heck, we have already been advised to make sure our bank details are up to date with the share registry!

Popeye
24-08-2022, 11:09 AM
Agree on all counts except on with what the SP might do, that is voodoo magic when it comes to Sky, it seems to defy all logic more often than not!


Yes, the idea of a 9cps divvy shows the perils of taking the consensus of these so-called analysts.

As you point out, that would not even equate to 50% of adjusted FCF. It doesn't even touch the rest of the large cash pile either.

I think the minimum standard dividend would be around 15cps and maximum 23cps ($26M - $40M).

Then, if Craigs is closer to the mark and Sky are planning to return $90M in total the special dividend would be somewhere between 28cps to 36cps (50M - 64M).

Total payout 51cps.

Less than 24 hours until we find out how generous Sky will be and in what format they will do a capital return. Special dividend seems the most sensible route at this junction, but there is always the possibility of some sort of a buyback too).

Should see some further uplift in SP.

RTM
24-08-2022, 11:53 AM
Given a heap of the $'s has come from selling their building...might a "dividend" be structured as a capital return ?
Had a few of those over the years....most recently from an Oz company. In their case they didn't even need to cancel any shares.

mistaTea
24-08-2022, 12:04 PM
Given a heap of the $'s has come from selling their building...might a "dividend" be structured as a capital return ?
Had a few of those over the years....most recently from an Oz company. In there case they didn't even need to cancel any shares.

A tax free capital return was something I aggitated for months ago when the propery was sold.

But now that we are all these months later I think a special dividend makes the most sense, especially given we have so many imputation credits. Most shareholders won't pay any tax and the ones that do will only pay 5%.

If they try to do a capital return payment now it will take months before you get your money as it has to get court approval and other box ticking exercises. If they initiated it when I was advocating for it then we would have received the money by late August/early September.

If they just do a sepcial dividend we will get the payment by mid September - a much better outcome.

silu
24-08-2022, 12:47 PM
Out of curiosity. Did Sky TV have a dividend reinvestment plan?

airedale
24-08-2022, 03:45 PM
Only 48,000 on the NZX and 13,000 on the ASX traded today so far. It seems that there are no leaks from the boardroom about tomorrow's result.

uravgtrader
24-08-2022, 04:25 PM
Maybe there's just nothing to leak? 🤔

mistaTea
24-08-2022, 05:58 PM
Big day tomorrow - good luck to all.

You just never know with SKT, but I am feeling positive that we will reach the right outcome tomorrow.

Only a few hours to wait before we know if this post will age well.

waikare
24-08-2022, 06:05 PM
Big day tomorrow - good luck to all.

You just never know with SKT, but I am feeling positive that we will reach the right outcome tomorrow.

Only a few hours to wait before we know if this post will age well.

One more sleep be for Santa comes

mistaTea
24-08-2022, 06:49 PM
One more sleep be for Santa comes

I have promised missusTea some presents tomorrow.

So if I am to be her Santa, no doubt she will be very focussed on what is in my sac.

Baa_Baa
24-08-2022, 07:21 PM
I have promised missusTea some presents tomorrow.

So if I am to be her Santa, no doubt she will be very focussed on what is in my sac.

The money or the bag?

Sideshow Bob
24-08-2022, 10:35 PM
I have promised missusTea some presents tomorrow.

So if I am to be her Santa, no doubt she will be very focussed on what is in my sac.

Sky doesn't have any R18 channels any more......:huh:

Entrep
24-08-2022, 11:18 PM
Sky Orange at midnight on a Friday was a special thing

silu
25-08-2022, 08:38 AM
I guess most people were looking for this one thing in the announcement:

All capital return options were reviewed and after careful consideration, including taking into account
shareholder feedback and input from advisors, the Board will propose to the 2022 Annual Shareholder
Meeting a return of capital of approximately $70 million through a Court sanctioned pro rata share
cancellation – a return of approximately 40 cents per share held on the record date to shareholders
(subject to rounding)3
.

bull....
25-08-2022, 08:46 AM
I guess most people were looking for this one thing in the announcement:

All capital return options were reviewed and after careful consideration, including taking into account
shareholder feedback and input from advisors, the Board will propose to the 2022 Annual Shareholder
Meeting a return of capital of approximately $70 million through a Court sanctioned pro rata share
cancellation – a return of approximately 40 cents per share held on the record date to shareholders
(subject to rounding)3
.

big flop for those hoping for special div's etc

winner69
25-08-2022, 08:48 AM
Not that generous with their hand outs are they ..... suppose beggars got to take whats offered

bull....
25-08-2022, 08:50 AM
Not that generous with their hand outs are they ..... suppose beggars got to take whats offered

lol guess there cancelling the shares to help maintain the div going forward. makes sense

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 08:51 AM
big flop for those hoping for special div's etc

Not really.

Special divvy would have been faster - but they are achieving the same thing in a way that ensures nobody pays any tax. They are returning over $80M in total which is a lot higher than many expected.

Bit of a process to get the capital distribution signed off by the courts etc, which is why I thought they might just go special dividend in the end.

But it is a big distribution so I think we should be pleased with that. And guidance for next year looks pretty solid despite increase in content costs hitting.

Have to say, in terms of running the operations of Sky TV - Sophie and the team are doing a very good job.

Entrep
25-08-2022, 08:51 AM
Up or down today?

Vitamin_A
25-08-2022, 08:51 AM
Very strong result. Prudent choice for the capital distribution. And, excellent guidance for the following year. Market will probably hate it though lol

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 08:51 AM
Not that generous with their hand outs are they ..... suppose beggars got to take whats offered

How do you mean?

They are distributing $82M between the capital return and the dividend? That's at the higher end of the ranges we have all been predicting this last month?

cyclist
25-08-2022, 09:00 AM
How do you mean?

They are distributing $82M between the capital return and the dividend? That's at the higher end of the ranges we have all been predicting this last month?

I'd decided I'd be delighted with 50c, which is about what we are getting once you add some imputation credits onto the dividend. Pretty pleased. A special dividend would have suited me better, but the capital distribution although slower, makes more sense for most I would have thought.

sb9
25-08-2022, 09:00 AM
How do you mean?

They are distributing $82M between the capital return and the dividend? That's at the higher end of the ranges we have all been predicting this last month?

Couldn’t agree more, guess some people are looking for instant returns. What they’ve done is probably the best outcome for long term holders. Less share on issue is better from earnings and dividend point of view going forward. Very pleased they listened to shareholders.

silu
25-08-2022, 09:05 AM
Up or down today?

Chris Keall likes it. Tom Pullar-Strecker likes it. I guess that means some folk who like dividend paying stock will be on the phones today saying Buy! My guess it will be an UP day.

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 09:05 AM
Couldn’t agree more, guess some people are looking for instant returns. What they’ve done is probably the best outcome for long term holders. Less share on issue is better from earnings and dividend point of view going forward. Very pleased they listened to shareholders.

Yeah the only downside is that you have to wait longer, but the upside is zero tax if you aren't set up as a company.

Your comments around earnings and dividends is inaccurate though.

As the shares are cancelled on a pro-rata basis the dividend you receive next year will be exactly the same as it would have been if they just did a special dividend this year (and didn't cancel shares). The dividend per share might appear higher...but you will own less shares, so the total you receiv will be unchanged.

You would only get higher dividends if they were returning capital by an on market buyback, whereby your % ownership of Sky would increase as they purchased shares and you did not sell.

Same thing goes for any 'increase' in earnings per share. It is smoke and mirrors.

RTM
25-08-2022, 09:06 AM
How do you mean?

They are distributing $82M between the capital return and the dividend? That's at the higher end of the ranges we have all been predicting this last month?

Yeah....ive been scratching my head and trying to figure out what Winner meant......happy as here.
What will be interesting will be where the SP settles today.
People with more powerful calculators than mine will be trying to figure that out.

Mr T...thought they would go the Capital Return way....few more months is not really material in the bigger scheme of things.

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 09:08 AM
A lot of room for growth in Broadband for Sky - but with ~18K customers taking the bundle, I think that number is a lot higher than some may have anticipated.

The new STB with new pricing/packages could see a potential spike in broadband if we can attract new customers.

RTM
25-08-2022, 09:10 AM
A lot of room for growth in Broadband for Sky - but with ~18K customers taking the bundle, I think that number is a lot higher than some may have anticipated.

The new STB with new pricing/packages could see a potential spike in broadband if we can attract new customers.

And I am thinking of going back to Satellite to improve the picture quality....as I currently only subscribe for sport.

sb9
25-08-2022, 09:11 AM
Yeah....ive been scratching my head and trying to figure out what Winner meant......happy as here.
What will be interesting will be where the SP settles today.
People with more powerful calculators than mine will be trying to figure that out.

Mr T...thought they would go the Capital Return way....few more months is not really material in the bigger scheme of things.

Can’t please winner that easily, always expecting more…

thebusinessman
25-08-2022, 09:25 AM
Well it's not what many thought they would do, but can someone help me understand what happens to our shareholdings?
If I own 10,000 today, will I still own 10,000 when this is done and have another 40c per share in my hot little hands?

bull....
25-08-2022, 09:29 AM
Well it's not what many thought they would do, but can someone help me understand what happens to our shareholdings?
If I own 10,000 today, will I still own 10,000 when this is done and have another 40c per share in my hot little hands?

you have less shares and the money

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 09:29 AM
Well it's not what many thought they would do, but can someone help me understand what happens to our shareholdings?
If I own 10,000 today, will I still own 10,000 when this is done and have another 40c per share in my hot little hands?

No the 40cps is based on current shares outstanding ($70M/174.688M shares outstanding)

Prior to the AGM, they will propose the exact details of the return so that it can be voted on at the AGM. They will cancel x% of shares oustanding and pay out whatever $/share it works out to be.

So, if they cancel 1 in 10 shares (17.47M shares) then for every 10 shares you own, they will cancel 1 and pay you $4/share ($70M/17.47M shares cancelled).

winner69
25-08-2022, 09:30 AM
Sorry I was a bit miserable sounding this morning

Should have remembered what I paid for me shares when SKT was in state of despair ..... so 40 cents back not to bad I suppose :):) .... even if I will have a few less shares afterwards

winner69
25-08-2022, 09:41 AM
Suppose a lot more thought went into working out/ debating the merits off / attractiveness off the 40 cents bit than the $70m bit

Tough being a director .... but they have advisors

JohnnyTheHorse
25-08-2022, 09:42 AM
Very pleased with the outcome. Dividend on the lower end of my expectation, however they they have signalled they will be targeting the upper range.

Capital return is great, especially for those of us on a 39% tax rate. Much more efficient, even if we must wait slightly.

Strength of the underlying business has been reconfirmed. They are doing what they say they will. This is the most important part of the entire announcement for me.

I’m expecting we will see strength from this.

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 10:07 AM
Looking at TWR who did a pro-rate capital return...I think the payment of money won't take as long as I might have thought (I thought it took a few months by the time you jump through various hoops).

They voted on their capital return at their AGM (2 Feb 2022).

Paperwork was filed right away and after court orders were received etc the share cancellation and capital distribution was finished a month later on 09 March.

Not sure if processing is slower given we will vote on this on November 2 and it is getting close to Xmas...but a possible Christmas present from the Board for us if it is implemented quickly like TWR.

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 10:08 AM
Strong open, market happy so far.

Balance
25-08-2022, 10:12 AM
Nothing to be unhappy with in the results.

No mention of takeover or M&A activity. Guess someone will ask that question at the Q&A later.

silu
25-08-2022, 10:12 AM
Strong open, market happy so far.

Happy to have topped up at $2.50 although I'm a bit overweight on it now.

Gerald
25-08-2022, 10:21 AM
Doesn't seem great capital management to issue shares at $1.20 then buy them back at $2.60?

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 10:27 AM
Doesn't seem great capital management to issue shares at $1.20 then buy them back at $2.60?

Fair comment to question the wisdom of raising a bunch of cash in 2020 only to return a big sum two years later.

But your reasoning around $1.20 vs $2.60 indicates you don't understand the pro-rata mechanism they are using.

They aren't purchasing any shares at all so the $2.60 is irrlevant.

They are returning $70M and will CANCEL some shares in the process (probably 1 in 10).

There is a big difference between that and what you are trying to get at.

Balance
25-08-2022, 10:31 AM
Fair comment to question the wisdom of raising a bunch of cash in 2020 only to return a big sum two years later.

But your reasoning around $1.20 vs $2.60 indicates you don't understand the pro-rata mechanism they are using.

They aren't purchasing any shares at all so the $2.60 is irrlevant.

They are returning $70M and will CANCEL some shares in the process (probably 1 in 10).

There is a big difference between that and what you are trying to get at.

Whivh is probably why they decided ona pro-rata capital return rather than a share buyback.

sb9
25-08-2022, 10:57 AM
Should be into $3 range very soon...some nice commentary from Sophie on the investor conf call.

JohnnyTheHorse
25-08-2022, 11:02 AM
Big money chasing this up, not retail.

sb9
25-08-2022, 11:05 AM
Looking back, some impeccable timing on sale of property. If they've missed that window, it would've been disastrous given how the property market has nosedived this year.
Gotta give that to Management and Board.

Entrep
25-08-2022, 11:25 AM
Yep full credit to Sophie. Finally someone seems to be steering this board right (acknowledged she is CEO and not chairperson).

Quantitative Easing
25-08-2022, 11:49 AM
https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceNZ/comments/www715/sky_tv_to_return_70m_to_shareholders_after_41/

Seems like sentiment has changed on platforms like reddit, where sky used to get a lot of negative comments. Now it is mostly positive comments.

bottomfeeder
25-08-2022, 01:12 PM
Sold some at $2.73, but then the bottom fell out of them, bought them back at 2.64. Should have waited for a bit longer. Oh no what is going on. Will we ever get to 3.00

airedale
25-08-2022, 03:53 PM
Deleted post


Sold some at $2.73, but then the bottom fell out of them, bought them back at 2.64. Should have waited for a bit longer. Oh no what is going on. Will we ever get to 3.00

They should when the share cancellation takes effect.

sb9
25-08-2022, 03:54 PM
Perhaps AUS tax treatment of capital return is weighing on sp movement.

RTM
25-08-2022, 04:00 PM
Perhaps AUS tax treatment of capital return is weighing on sp movement.

Why do you say that ? The Australian company the retuned capital to me did not even cancel any shares.
My impression was that the rules were similar.
It just has to be a genuine return of capital.

sb9
25-08-2022, 04:06 PM
Why do you say that ? The Australian company the retuned capital to me did not even cancel any shares.
My impression was that the rules were similar.
It just has to be a genuine return of capital.

Going by few comments I read on HC it appears that way, could be wrong though...

Moneyman
25-08-2022, 04:33 PM
Dividend and tax free payment a good outcome today. I still wonder why the tax free payment could not have been announced earlier. The only reason to delay till now is because they have a buyer and are working a deal in the background. A tax free distribution gives SKT more time (stalling) and puts more heat on a buyer with a firm deadline.

mistaTea
25-08-2022, 04:35 PM
I still wonder why the tax free payment could not have been announced earlier. The only reason to delay till now is because they have a buyer and are working a deal in the background. A tax free distribution gives SKT more time (stalling) and puts more heat on a buyer with a firm deadline.

Tempting to think that but I doubt it.

Shareholders have to vote on the capital return remember. So by the time they consulted shareholders, got independent advice etc and landed on this as the best option...they probably figured they may as well wait to the FY results to announce it and then let shareholders vote on it along with all the other business on 2 November (as opposed to having to organise a special meeting etc to vote on it).

sb9
25-08-2022, 04:36 PM
It'll be really funny if someone came up with a T/A offer in next few days, that'll set cat among pigeons.

Sideshow Bob
25-08-2022, 04:58 PM
It'll be really funny if someone came up with a T/A offer in next few days, that'll set cat among pigeons.

I like those sort of cats amongst pigeons!! :)

(Don't like cats, but hate pigeons more!) :sleep:

bottomfeeder
25-08-2022, 05:41 PM
It'll be really funny if someone came up with a T/A offer in next few days, that'll set cat among pigeons.

Heres hoping.

DownTownJr
25-08-2022, 06:40 PM
Surprised to see SKT down on the ASX, the announcement wasn't that bad was it or am I missing something here?

moimoi
25-08-2022, 06:46 PM
So is the proposed capital return in the price already....?

Watchful
25-08-2022, 06:48 PM
My uninformed guess is there may have been a cohort that had taken short-term positions on the hope/expectation of either a takeover-type deal being announced, or near-term special div. The lump sum capital return being so far away on the calendar probably scuppered their plans for a quick flick, so they’re bailing now at probably a modest profit, possibly with intention of jumping in again closer to the time. May also be longer-term holders in a similar boat having run out of patience.

Pure speculation though.

Baa_Baa
25-08-2022, 07:03 PM
Surprised to see SKT down on the ASX, the announcement wasn't that bad was it or am I missing something here?

The uncertainty around how the capital return may or may not be taxed in Aus.

curious zebra
25-08-2022, 07:34 PM
I’m not so sure the way this ‘Capital return’ is being planned is such a great result for a lot of investors. The important part of the announcement for me is where they say in the Market Release on page 3,
“All capital return options were reviewed and after careful consideration, including taking into account shareholder feedback and input from advisors, the Board will propose ….. a return of capital of approximately $70 million through a Court sanctioned pro rata share cancellation – a return of approximately 40 cents per share held on the record date to shareholders. This approach was selected as the most appropriate way to return a significant sum to shareholders, offering a fair and efficient mechanism that treats all shareholders equally.”
Then in the footnote they elaborate further,
“The capital return will result in the cancellation of shares, with shareholders receiving payment for each share cancelled. The price per share cancelled and cancellation ratio will be determined closer to the time, and are expected to be set such that, where no rounding is applied to a shareholder, that shareholder will receive 40 cents per share held on the record date.”
It seems to me that the cancellation of any shares is entirely unnecessary, as the proportion owned by each holder will stay unchanged as previous posters have noted. However, if they are going to cancel shares, what price will they use to value those shares, and therefore how many of each individuals shares they will cancel in return for the capital being paid to each shareholder? It seems logical to me that they would use the market price at the time, which, depending on what a particular holder’s dollar cost average is, could severely disadvantage that holder.
For example, say I own 150 shares which cost me $3 each [$450]. Currently, the price is around $2.61 – say that Sky use that price to value each share they cancel, and they want to return 40c per share. So, they’ll return to me 150x40c = $60, which at $2.61 per share, means they will cancel 23 of my shares. Now I have only 127 shares, which cost me $450-$60=$390.
$390 for my 127 shares means I’ve paid $3.07 per share, so my dollar cost average has actually increased! So this is hardly the fair mechanism that treats all shareholders equally! It’s great for all the instos who bought at 12c [equiv of $1.20 after the share consolidation] in the capital raise, but for those like me who bought shares way back at $3 [equiv of $30 after the share consolidation], this is just a forced sale which capitalises the loss on my shares.
If they simply pay me 40c per share I hold, but leave the number of shares untouched, then at least my DCA is reduced, ie I still own 150 shares that cost me $2.60 [$3-40c], irrelevant of what the market price is for the shares currently.
If someone reading this disagrees with my logic, I’d love to hear from them, but this is where I’m at after much reasoned thought.

mikelee
25-08-2022, 08:02 PM
So we're getting paid a dividend in Sept worth about 3.1% using a SP of $2.70, plus depending on shareholder vote, another lump sump in Nov from share cancellation worth 40 cents? I know less share out there is good news but I agree with CZ above that if the share price ended up under-performing then we'll actually be worse off in the short term. A 3.1% return is not very impressive given that its well below the current TD rate. I regret selling my Spark shares too early, given Spark's consistently higher than TD yield + the recently announced special dividends. Hope the SP will finally break $3 soon, before the vote, and that we get at least 5% return from next year onward, in the form of dividend.

bottomfeeder
25-08-2022, 09:05 PM
Have to agree with above. The divvy is smaller than I expected, but at least it is only a final dividend. So next year we should expect to get close to double. I am of two minds about the share reduction/buyback. Maybe it was factored knto the SP. It will only serve to reduce the SP, by the same amount when the exercise is complete. Would have rather the company retained the capital and not relied upon borrowings or external liabilities.

I dont think the directors really care about the SP. I see it all the time. Instead of paying a decent dividend and have the SP follow the divvy, the make a divvy payment based on the current SP. They certainly dont want to have a fluctuating SP, dependant on the yoyoing profit.

So what should the SP reach. Unless there is a takeover, we will be lucky to go over $2.80 at the very most.

Still a good share for a long term hold with possibility of some future growth if they get their act together.

RTM
26-08-2022, 08:30 AM
So we're getting paid a dividend in Sept worth about 3.1% using a SP of $2.70, plus depending on shareholder vote, another lump sump in Nov from share cancellation worth 40 cents? I know less share out there is good news but I agree with CZ above that if the share price ended up under-performing then we'll actually be worse off in the short term. A 3.1% return is not very impressive given that its well below the current TD rate. I regret selling my Spark shares too early, given Spark's consistently higher than TD yield + the recently announced special dividends. Hope the SP will finally break $3 soon, before the vote, and that we get at least 5% return from next year onward, in the form of dividend.

Remember they will probably pay two dividends a year....interim & final...so I am thinking a yield of around 6%.
If that is the case...I will be happy with my investment.

Snoopy
26-08-2022, 09:00 AM
“The capital return will result in the cancellation of shares, with shareholders receiving payment for each share cancelled. The price per share cancelled and cancellation ratio will be determined closer to the time, and are expected to be set such that, where no rounding is applied to a shareholder, that shareholder will receive 40 cents per share held on the record date.”

For example, say I own 150 shares which cost me $3 each [$450]. Currently, the price is around $2.61 – say that Sky use that price to value each share they cancel, and they want to return 40c per share. So, they’ll return to me 150x40c = $60, which at $2.61 per share, means they will cancel 23 of my shares. Now I have only 127 shares, which cost me $450-$60=$390. $390 for my 127 shares means I’ve paid $3.07 per share, so my dollar cost average has actually increased! So this is hardly the fair mechanism that treats all shareholders equally! It’s great for all the instos who bought at 12c [equiv of $1.20 after the share consolidation] in the capital raise, but for those like me who bought shares way back at $3 [equiv of $30 after the share consolidation], this is just a forced sale which capitalises the loss on my shares.If they simply pay me 40c per share I hold, but leave the number of shares untouched, then at least my DCA is reduced, ie I still own 150 shares that cost me $2.60 [$3-40c], irrelevant of what the market price is for the shares currently.
If someone reading this disagrees with my logic, I’d love to hear from them, but this is where I’m at after much reasoned thought.


CZ, I think your are conflating the concepts of 'price' and 'value' in your nevertheless carefully thought out prose. Cancelling shares does not result in any of the business backing those shares being cancelled. So although you are correct in saying that the dollar cost average of your shares will go up as a result of the share cancellation, those existing business assets behind the share price will also have gone up in proportion.

To illustrate this point I will take the numbers you have assumed to reflect what will actually occur during the share cancellation. If your 150 shares were worth $2.61 each before the share cancellation, 23 shares are cancelled, and 40c per share is returned to the shareholder for each share held, then what will be the market price 'P' of each remaining share after the share cancellation?

(150 x $2.61) = 127P + (150 x $0.40) => (150 x $2.21) = 127P => P = $2.61

However, if you now ask a different question about what has happened to the underlying cash generating value of the Sky business 'V' during this exercise, on a per share basis, then a different calculation applies. This value V per share is now spread over less shares, in your case 127 not 150. So the underlying value of the shares you have left has gone up by a factor of 150/127 which equals +18.1%. IOW you haven't crystallised your loss, because the value of the business remains in the business spread over less shares, no matter what any share price machinations and capital returns are 'apparently' telling you.

If your argument is with the timing of the capital return then that is easily fixed. As soon as you receive your capital return, then immediately use that money to buy back into Sky . That way the amount of capital you have invested in Sky will not change. You may have to pay a higher price per share to return to the capital level you held before. But if that is the case you will also be getting more for your buck, as the underlying 'income generating value' of each of the shares you purchase will have gone up in proportion. It really will all even out in a fair way in the end, whichever path you take :-).

The fact that:

a/ You may have paid a lot more for your shares in the past then they are worth now AND
b/ The market is prepared to pay a big institution more than they paid for their shares today than when they bought at rock bottom.

is -in both cases- a reflection of how the market has priced the business over your respective holding periods. That is entirely disconnected and independent of the capital return process being proposed now.



It seems to me that the cancellation of any shares is entirely unnecessary, as the proportion owned by each holder will stay unchanged as previous posters have noted.


I agree with your point above. But you would have to consider what would happen if Sky did not cancel the shares. The share price would go down by 40c (the amount of the capital return per share). By not telling you the exact number of shares to be cancelled now, it looks to me as though Sky are wanting to arrange it so that the share price does not drop after the cancellation. Doing that would see a market reflection of the underlying value of the Sky business not changing as a result of the capital return, which in my view is a true reflection of what is happening.

SNOOPY

RTM
26-08-2022, 09:10 AM
Mr T....very slow to the Forum this morning....exhausted ?

winner69
26-08-2022, 09:27 AM
CZ, I think your are conflating the concepts of 'price' and 'value' in your nevertheless carefully thought out prose. Cancelling shares does not result in any of the business backing those shares being cancelled. So although you are correct in saying that the dollar cost average of your shares will go up as a result of the share cancellation, those existing business assets behind the share price will also have gone up in proportion.

To illustrate this point I will take the numbers you have assumed to reflect what will actually occur during the share cancellation. If your 150 shares were worth $2.61 each before the share cancellation, 23 shares are cancelled, and 40c per share is returned to the shareholder for each share held, then what will be the market price 'P' of each share after the share cancellation?

(150 x $2.61) = 127P + (150 x $0.40) => (150 x $2.21) = 127P => P = $2.61

However, if you now ask a different question about what has happened to the underlying cash generating value of the Sky business 'V' during this exercise, on a per share basis, then different calculation applies. This value V per share is now spread over less shares, in your case 127 not 150. So the underlying value of the shares you have left has gone up by a factor of 150/127 which equals +18.1%. IOW you haven't crystallised your loss because the value of the business remains in the business, no matter what any share price machinations and capital returns are 'apparently' telling you.

If your argument is with the timing of the capital return then that is easily fixed. As soon as you receive your capital return, then immediately use that money to buy back into Sky . That way the amount of capital you have invested in Sky will not change. You may have to pay a higher price per share to return to the capital level you held before. But if that is the case you will also be getting more for your buck, as the underlying 'income generating value' of each of the shares you purchase will have gone up in proportion. It really will all even out in a fair way in the end, whichever path you take :-).

The fact that:

a/ You may have paid a lot more for your shares in the past then they are worth now AND
b/ The market is prepared to pay a big institution more than they paid for their shares today than when they bought at rock bottom.

is in both cases a reflection of how the market has priced the business over your respective holding periods. That is entirely disconnected and independent of the capital return process being proposed now.



I agree with your point above. But you would have to consider what would happen if Sky did not cancel the shares. The share price would go down by 40c. By not telling you the exact number of shares to be cancelled now, it looks to me as though Sky are wanting to arrange it so that the share price does not drop after the cancellation. Doing that would be see a market reflection of the underlying value of the Sky business not changing as a result of the capital return, which in my view is true.

SNOOPY

Hey Snoops - less shares means higher EPS .... means higher share price id PE ratio maintained .... cool eh

But in many instances the PE ratio falls as a result ..... not good for share price (as it doesn't go up as its meant to because of higher PE)

Wonder what'll happen in this case ...... curious zebra might be even more disappointed

But in many in

mistaTea
26-08-2022, 09:49 AM
Mr T....very slow to the Forum this morning....exhausted ?

Sorry mate, too busy daydreaming about dividends.

RTM
26-08-2022, 10:11 AM
Sorry mate, too busy daydreaming about dividends.

Thought you may have had a big night.

Balance
26-08-2022, 10:45 AM
For example, say I own 150 shares which cost me $3 each [$450]. Currently, the price is around $2.61 – say that Sky use that price to value each share they cancel, and they want to return 40c per share. So, they’ll return to me 150x40c = $60, which at $2.61 per share, means they will cancel 23 of my shares. Now I have only 127 shares, which cost me $450-$60=$390.
$390 for my 127 shares means I’ve paid $3.07 per share, so my dollar cost average has actually increased! So this is hardly the fair mechanism that treats all shareholders equally! It’s great for all the instos who bought at 12c [equiv of $1.20 after the share consolidation] in the capital raise, but for those like me who bought shares way back at $3 [equiv of $30 after the share consolidation], this is just a forced sale which capitalises the loss on my shares.
If they simply pay me 40c per share I hold, but leave the number of shares untouched, then at least my DCA is reduced, ie I still own 150 shares that cost me $2.60 [$3-40c], irrelevant of what the market price is for the shares currently.
If someone reading this disagrees with my logic, I’d love to hear from them, but this is where I’m at after much reasoned thought.

Snoopy has given an excellent reply to your post.

Critical point imo to note is that it is irrelevant what one paid (cost) for shares in a company once the investment is made - what is relevant is where one believes the sp is going to go.

If you want to see how capital return via share cancellation can work favorably to enhance shareholders' returns, have a look at AIA and PGW (shares I own).

Both have powered on and delivered excellent returns to shareholders post their share cancellations/capital returns.

bottomfeeder
26-08-2022, 02:28 PM
Snoopy has given an excellent reply to your post.

Critical point imo to note is that it is irrelevant what one paid (cost) for shares in a company once the investment is made - what is relevant is where one believes the sp is going to go.

If you want to see how capital return via share cancellation can work favorably to enhance shareholders' returns, have a look at AIA and PGW (shares I own).

Both have powered on and delivered excellent returns to shareholders post their share cancellations/capital returns.

The SP will power on only if they can start to make more profit, and pay more dividends on the lower NTA after the capital return.

mikelee
26-08-2022, 08:11 PM
....and I certainly haven't seen much upward movement of the SP since the 10:1 share consolidation. Or was that different from share cancellation?

Baa_Baa
26-08-2022, 10:08 PM
....and I certainly haven't seen much upward movement of the SP since the 10:1 share consolidation. Or was that different from share cancellation?

Maybe you're not looking in the right place? Or perhaps 25% capital appreciation in share price, in less than one year, since consolidation isn't "much', or enough, for you. It actually got up to 42% gain but has come off a bit. Yes, it's different from share cancellation. There's plenty of detailed explanation on the cancellation if you care to read it here, some of our best and brightest investors have spelt it out in detail.

mistaTea
27-08-2022, 09:36 PM
AB’s lost to Argentina. First time to lose to them on NZ soil.

Maybe that’s why the SKT SP pulled back yesterday - the market knows that the All Blacks are worthless now!

curious zebra
27-08-2022, 09:46 PM
CZ, I think your are conflating the concepts of 'price' and 'value' in your nevertheless carefully thought out prose. Cancelling shares does not result in any of the business backing those shares being cancelled. So although you are correct in saying that the dollar cost average of your shares will go up as a result of the share cancellation, those existing business assets behind the share price will also have gone up in proportion.

To illustrate this point I will take the numbers you have assumed to reflect what will actually occur during the share cancellation. If your 150 shares were worth $2.61 each before the share cancellation, 23 shares are cancelled, and 40c per share is returned to the shareholder for each share held, then what will be the market price 'P' of each remaining share after the share cancellation?

(150 x $2.61) = 127P + (150 x $0.40) => (150 x $2.21) = 127P => P = $2.61

However, if you now ask a different question about what has happened to the underlying cash generating value of the Sky business 'V' during this exercise, on a per share basis, then a different calculation applies. This value V per share is now spread over less shares, in your case 127 not 150. So the underlying value of the shares you have left has gone up by a factor of 150/127 which equals +18.1%. IOW you haven't crystallised your loss, because the value of the business remains in the business spread over less shares, no matter what any share price machinations and capital returns are 'apparently' telling you.

If your argument is with the timing of the capital return then that is easily fixed. As soon as you receive your capital return, then immediately use that money to buy back into Sky . That way the amount of capital you have invested in Sky will not change. You may have to pay a higher price per share to return to the capital level you held before. But if that is the case you will also be getting more for your buck, as the underlying 'income generating value' of each of the shares you purchase will have gone up in proportion. It really will all even out in a fair way in the end, whichever path you take :-).

The fact that:

a/ You may have paid a lot more for your shares in the past then they are worth now AND
b/ The market is prepared to pay a big institution more than they paid for their shares today than when they bought at rock bottom.

is -in both cases- a reflection of how the market has priced the business over your respective holding periods. That is entirely disconnected and independent of the capital return process being proposed now.



I agree with your point above. But you would have to consider what would happen if Sky did not cancel the shares. The share price would go down by 40c (the amount of the capital return per share). By not telling you the exact number of shares to be cancelled now, it looks to me as though Sky are wanting to arrange it so that the share price does not drop after the cancellation. Doing that would see a market reflection of the underlying value of the Sky business not changing as a result of the capital return, which in my view is a true reflection of what is happening.

SNOOPY




Thanks, Snoopy for your detailed reply clarifying the difference between price and value - I very much appreciate the time and effort you put into explaining. However, I’m still left wondering how Sky’s Board and/or management will decide what price they put on each share when they come to cancel those shares? I can’t see any way to establish a price without reference to the market price at the time. Can you suggest any alternative pricing mechanism they might use, especially one reflecting a perceived value?

Sideshow Bob
31-08-2022, 11:28 AM
Results are out/digested, SP has slipped back into the doldrums and all chat has stopped?? :confused:

mistaTea
31-08-2022, 11:40 AM
Results are out/digested, SP has slipped back into the doldrums and all chat has stopped?? :confused:

Everyone too depressed I suspect.

Usual story for Sky - despite solid results and proving the naysayers wrong the market is still unconvinced about Sky's future beyond a year or two from now...and takes a very conservative view on her valuation.

LaserEyeKiwi
31-08-2022, 11:45 AM
Everyone too depressed I suspect.

Usual story for Sky - despite solid results and proving the naysayers wrong the market is still unconvinced about Sky's future beyond a year or two from now...and takes a very conservative view on her valuation.

well you never know when management & the board are going to turnaround and try and buy a money losing radio station again for hundred million +.

Confidence in management was already low before that farce, and it will take a while for that to be forgotten by the market.

Now they are even having trouble delivering their primary product, with multiple big live sport events not being viewable for some Sky Sport Now customers. Got to get back to basics, especially in a cost of living crisis where sky is one of the easiest big ticket monthly items to drop if needed.

my half price year long special offer skybox subscription ends in November. I will not be renewing it unless i get the same half price rate (unlikely I’m guessing)

mistaTea
31-08-2022, 05:29 PM
SP well below expectations, but at least volume was better today.

DeathByWarriors
01-09-2022, 12:58 PM
I will be ditching Sky Sport Now if the performance of the TV app doesn't improve in the coming months. I keep getting buffering when watching live sport despite my TV being hardwired to the router and being on a gigabit internet plan. There's also a bunch of other interface issues that need to be sorted out. Hopefully it's just teething issues and they iron them out quickly.

mistaTea
01-09-2022, 01:02 PM
I will be ditching Sky Sport Now if the performance of the TV app doesn't improve in the coming months. I keep getting buffering when watching live sport despite my TV being hardwired to the router and being on a gigabit internet plan. There's also a bunch of other interface issues that need to be sorted out. Hopefully it's just teething issues and they iron them out quickly.

I have noticed a similar thing with NEON lately.

I have a Sony Bravia TV connected to wifi via ethernet cable.

I have fibre too.

Relaxed
01-09-2022, 01:38 PM
I have noticed a similar thing with NEON lately.

I have a Sony Bravia TV connected to wifi via ethernet cable.

I have fibre too.

Although you may find your Sony TV only has a 100 Mbps network card. Mine does.
I wrote to them and said this was ridiculous in a Gigabit world, but I only got a stock reply "we'll pass this on to ......"

silu
01-09-2022, 02:23 PM
TV processors (especially Sony ones - still love my Bravia though) are incredibly slow to keep the price down. The SSN app on the PS5 works so much faster and better so I assume it's the TV's fault.

mistaTea
01-09-2022, 02:33 PM
TV processors (especially Sony ones - still love my Bravia though) are incredibly slow to keep the price down. The SSN app on the PS5 works so much faster and better so I assume it's the TV's fault.

Cheers, yes most likely a TV issue. I certainly haven't noticed the same issues on a browser or iPhone app.

Just weird though, because I haven't noticed the same thing on Netflix when using the TV app.

silu
01-09-2022, 03:23 PM
Cheers, yes most likely a TV issue. I certainly haven't noticed the same issues on a browser or iPhone app.

Just weird though, because I haven't noticed the same thing on Netflix when using the TV app.

I often think this too as my YouTube app works well on any platform too but then one of them is valued at over 100b and the other at over 1.4t so they probably have the money to sort out the tech.

Popeye
01-09-2022, 04:41 PM
I wonder if the market has found the guidance level of FCF a bit underwhelming. Based on F23 dividend level of $17-23m being "the upper end of the range" (ie. 80% of FCF), the implicit FCF range is $21m-$29m. So circa $15-20m down on F22 ($43m), presumably due to expected F23 capex of $60-75m, which is in turn $15-20m up on F22.

It probably comes down to the view on whether this capex is likely to grow the business or not, and how much of it will be recurring in the future. Just how much cash is this business likely to generate in future, is this as good as it gets?




Everyone too depressed I suspect.

Usual story for Sky - despite solid results and proving the naysayers wrong the market is still unconvinced about Sky's future beyond a year or two from now...and takes a very conservative view on her valuation.

mistaTea
01-09-2022, 05:37 PM
I wonder if the market has found the guidance level of FCF a bit underwhelming. Based on F23 dividend level of $17-23m being "the upper end of the range" (ie. 80% of FCF), the implicit FCF range is $21m-$29m. So circa $15-20m down on F22 ($43m), presumably due to expected F23 capex of $60-75m, which is in turn $15-20m up on F22.

It probably comes down to the view on whether this capex is likely to grow the business or not, and how much of it will be recurring in the future. Just how much cash is this business likely to generate in future, is this as good as it gets?


Yes that is right, the CAPEX guidance was much higher than anticipated I think. Understandable that it would rise somewhat as the new STB is late and they will have to double down on the rollout meaning more spend in FY23.

But I also note that Sophie has indicated that they may even go above guidance for CAPEX depending on how things play out.

It is good that they gave given dividend guidance though, and agree that CAPEX needs to be value accretive (obviously). We don't want fat dividends if it comes at the cost of Sky's long term future.

And there is no doubt in my mind that the new STB is worthwhile money spent. It is very late (John Fellet would have had an IP box rolled out in 2018) and now that Smart TV's are a lot more advanced the idea of a Sky STB will be viewed as diminishing returns. However, if the box really can do all the things they have been hyping (particularly the idea around aggregating 3rd Party subscription content with Sky content in a handy UI) then it will solve a problem for kiwis and will be popular.

CAPEX will come down after the initial roll out, unless they find something else to use the money for. So long as it is value accretive, I am ok with that (more than ok with it!) even though it will mean smaller dividends than I would otherwise receive.

mistaTea
02-09-2022, 09:06 AM
TV processors (especially Sony ones - still love my Bravia though) are incredibly slow to keep the price down. The SSN app on the PS5 works so much faster and better so I assume it's the TV's fault.

Subscribed to Amazon Prime last night...watched an episode of The Stand (really awesome) and Reacher (good lay back and enjoy some fisticuffs) with zero buffering. Sharp 4K UHD picture - high quality.

Flick over to NEON to watch something...stuttering at certain parts of the show. So it cannot be a processing power issue. And anyway, 100Mbs is more than enough to stream 4K UHD (so the HD bitrate NEON uses should be a cinch).

On another note...looking at the vast array of quality content on Amazon Prime now...and reflecting that it costs a paltry $8/month to subscribe right now...I think NETFLIX is so absolutely f*cked it's not funny.

Amazon is about a third of the price and, I would argue, has more premim content worthwhile watching. No doubt the subscription cost will need to increase over time, but they have a lot of increases to go before getting anywhere near netflix. All netflix can do is double down on producing expensive content (which will evicerate their cashflows) and get into advertising (which will be unpopular).

It is going to be fascinating to observe how the big streamers slug it out over the next few years.

Content aggregators like Sky will come out just fine if they nurture their key relationships and affirm the value-add that the bundle provides.

freebee
02-09-2022, 12:11 PM
Chris Rattue's top 5 sports to watch this weekend, 4 of them on Sky, only the US tennis open is on Spark. Interesting comment re Sky below is pretty standard negative media comments about Sky
2) US Open tennis, all weekend, from 3am – Spark Sport

Colleagues have begged me to include anything which promotes Spark Sport on the grounds that no matter how niche its coverage gets, competition will help keep Sky Sport's pricing and services on notice.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/chris-rattues-watchlist-the-all-blacks-soap-opera-could-get-even-more-interesting/V2HC3GEL4LPTOA2MOIPCJOWNX4/

P S loving both our Scotts doing so well in Indycar (esp McLaughlin)

ratkin
02-09-2022, 07:43 PM
Subscribed to Amazon Prime last night...watched an episode of The Stand (really awesome) and Reacher (good lay back and enjoy some fisticuffs) with zero buffering. Sharp 4K UHD picture - high quality.
.

Watch The man in the high castle if you get the chance. For me it best series on prime

mikelee
02-09-2022, 07:56 PM
Netflix's new series Rings of Power have very good reviews, but not sure if people are sick of all these prequels and the genre yet ie. The Secrets of Dumbledore.

mistaTea
03-09-2022, 08:02 AM
https://www.tvtechnology.com/news/nep-group-appoints-martin-stewart-cfo

Martin now CFO at NEP

mistaTea
06-09-2022, 09:00 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129782301/endless-issues-rugby-fans-plead-for-sky-sport-now-app-fix

More issues and complaints about SSN.

airedale
08-09-2022, 03:32 PM
Tomorrow is the record date for Sky TV shares. Today's price is $2.36. That will get you around 40 cents {approx} when the share cancellation is worked out. Whatever the final pay out, the dividend percentage is well in to double figures at today's SP.

Entrep
08-09-2022, 03:49 PM
Tomorrow is the record date for Sky TV shares. Today's price is $2.36. That will get you around 40 cents {approx} when the share cancellation is worked out. Whatever the final pay out, the dividend percentage is well in to double figures at today's SP.

Explains the drop if they are trading ex now

Balance
12-09-2022, 09:06 AM
An interesting snippet from Craigs' annual investor day in Auckland - Sky TV included in the lineup of companies invited to present so presumably one of the 6 companies invited to present which meet their 11 characteristics of the best stocks to invest in :

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/how-to-pick-best-shares-top-tips-presented-at-craigs-investor-day/STSB4IMGFCRHR2SFMNYV7JWPPE/
paywalled

Craigs Investment Partners held its annual investor day at the Cordis, inviting business leaders to speak about what they're doing and how their companies are going.

The lineup included

Mainfreight managing director Don Braid,

Fisher & Paykel Healthcare managing director Lewis Gradon,

Fletcher Building chief financial officer Bevan McKenzie,

and

Goodman Property chief executive John Dakin,

Sky TV chief executive Sophie Moloney,

Craig's head of private wealth and research Mark Lister and

Serko chief executive Darrin Grafton.

Vitamin_A
12-09-2022, 10:08 AM
Sky's not trading ex the capital distribution though.

airedale
12-09-2022, 11:16 AM
Perhaps there is a Craigs client on this page who can share their thoughts.

Balance
12-09-2022, 12:26 PM
Perhaps there is a Craigs client on this page who can share their thoughts.

The critical point to note is that Craig manages billion of dollars in clients’ portfolios and only stocks which have buy recommendations can be included in the portfolios.

So SKT can count upon ongoing support from Craig until such time as it is not recommended.

Entrep
12-09-2022, 12:45 PM
The critical point to note is that Craig manages billion of dollars in clients’ portfolios and only stocks which have buy recommendations can be included in the portfolios.

So SKT can count upon ongoing support from Craig until such time as it is not recommended.

Craigs shilled NZK massively and look at how that has done.

airedale
12-09-2022, 01:12 PM
Are Craigs still recommending NZK?


Craigs shilled NZK massively and look at how that has done.

Entrep
12-09-2022, 01:33 PM
Last I checked but that was several months ago TBH. They had a target of $1.xx if I recall correctly, then of course did the raise at 20c or whatever it was... lol

mistaTea
13-09-2022, 01:55 PM
It has taken me ~6 weeks, but I have just completed selling the bulk of my Sky shares.

I have sold 97% of the shares I owned, and now hold a very modest amount of shares. I only hold ~$25K worth of shares now - enough to keep me interested in how events unfold for Sky over time, but not so much as to be particularly worried either. Also consider that at the end of November, Sky will return $4K of that to me in cold hard cash.

Why have I sold out?

Well, it is my view that the current market price for Sky is more than fair. Probably overvalued actually.

Market cap = $410M. Once you subtract the $70M cash payment, Sky's operations are valued at $340M.

Even if we assume that Sky pay the top end dividend guidance of $23M next year, a $340M market cap would be a 6.8% yield. When you consider that Spark is currently priced at a 6.3% yield, that is truly astounding.

I have no idea what the Sky SP will do over the next year, but I do feel that the current price is more than fair given:



Earnings outlook beyond a year or so is very murky
Big renewal deals are coming up soon - rugby and HBO. Winning them will come at a big price.
Broadband uptake is slow
STB rollout is still yet to happen. The rest of the cash in the bank will be spent on this new box.
Now that it has taken Sky so long to launch a new box, the uptake will be less than if they did this a few years back given Smart TV's are pretty damn good now. It is still an important part of their tech roadmap, but will have less impact now than it would have in the past.


When all is washed up, on paper I am probably down about $40K on this investment. However, all is not lost:



By hanging on to 10K shares I have not actually realised a loss yet. I get $4K in November, which reduces my loss to $36K. Future dividends and possible upward movement of the SP in the future (if a takeover ever eventuated, for example) could well mean that I get all my momey back in the future.
I still get to own a tiny slice of a business I am interested in, but can 'set and forget' now.
The learnings from owning Sky over the past few years have been absolutely invaluable to me.


Murphy's Law dicated that next week a takeover offer will present. That's ok if it does - I don't have a crystal ball, and holding while hoping a greater fool will come along to buy your shares is hardly investing. I have sold my shares, and feel pretty damn good about it.

Good luck to everyone still hanging in there. It will be interesting to see how this play out for Sky over the next few years!

JohnnyTheHorse
13-09-2022, 03:21 PM
You might be late getting that SSH out after dropping below 5%. Better get onto that mate.

Old mate
13-09-2022, 04:15 PM
I struggle to find stuff to watch on sky now. Still enjoy the rugby but watch less of it than I used to so I might pull the pin on subscription and try something else. Based on this I sold out of shares recently also.Could be tough times ahead for sky if economy stays under the pump.

Entrep
13-09-2022, 04:17 PM
It has taken me ~6 weeks, but I have just completed selling the bulk of my Sky shares.

I have sold 97% of the shares I owned, and now hold a very modest amount of shares. I only hold ~$25K worth of shares now - enough to keep me interested in how events unfold for Sky over time, but not so much as to be particularly worried either. Also consider that at the end of November, Sky will return $4K of that to me in cold hard cash.

Why have I sold out?

Well, it is my view that the current market price for Sky is more than fair. Probably overvalued actually.

Market cap = $410M. Once you subtract the $70M cash payment, Sky's operations are valued at $340M.

Even if we assume that Sky pay the top end dividend guidance of $23M next year, a $340M market cap would be a 6.8% yield. When you consider that Spark is currently priced at a 6.3% yield, that is truly astounding.

I have no idea what the Sky SP will do over the next year, but I do feel that the current price is more than fair given:



Earnings outlook beyond a year or so is very murky
Big renewal deals are coming up soon - rugby and HBO. Winning them will come at a big price.
Broadband uptake is slow
STB rollout is still yet to happen. The rest of the cash in the bank will be spent on this new box.
Now that it has taken Sky so long to launch a new box, the uptake will be less than if they did this a few years back given Smart TV's are pretty damn good now. It is still an important part of their tech roadmap, but will have less impact now than it would have in the past.


When all is washed up, on paper I am probably down about $40K on this investment. However, all is not lost:



By hanging on to 10K shares I have not actually realised a loss yet. I get $4K in November, which reduces my loss to $36K. Future dividends and possible upward movement of the SP in the future (if a takeover ever eventuated, for example) could well mean that I get all my momey back in the future.
I still get to own a tiny slice of a business I am interested in, but can 'set and forget' now.
The learnings from owning Sky over the past few years have been absolutely invaluable to me.


Murphy's Law dicated that next week a takeover offer will present. That's ok if it does - I don't have a crystal ball, and holding while hoping a greater fool will come along to buy your shares is hardly investing. I have sold my shares, and feel pretty damn good about it.

Good luck to everyone still hanging in there. It will be interesting to see how this play out for Sky over the next few years!

https://media.giphy.com/media/Vb9IgMxcRIa4M/giphy.gif

bottomfeeder
13-09-2022, 04:41 PM
Why have I sold out?

Well, it is my view that the current market price for Sky is more than fair. Probably overvalued actually.

Even if we assume that Sky pay the top end dividend guidance of $23M next year, a $340M market cap would be a 6.8% yield. When you consider that Spark is currently priced at a 6.3% yield, that is truly astounding.

I have no idea what the Sky SP will do over the next year, but I do feel that the current price is more than fair given:



Earnings outlook beyond a year or so is very murky
Big renewal deals are coming up soon - rugby and HBO. Winning them will come at a big price.
Broadband uptake is slow
STB rollout is still yet to happen. The rest of the cash in the bank will be spent on this new box.
Now that it has taken Sky so long to launch a new box, the uptake will be less than if they did this a few years back given Smart TV's are pretty damn good now. It is still an important part of their tech roadmap, but will have less impact now than it would have in the past.


When all is washed up, on paper I am probably down about $40K on this investment. However, all is not lost:



By hanging on to 10K shares I have not actually realised a loss yet. I get $4K in November, which reduces my loss to $36K. Future dividends and possible upward movement of the SP in the future (if a takeover ever eventuated, for example) could well mean that I get all my momey back in the future.
I still get to own a tiny slice of a business I am interested in, but can 'set and forget' now.
The learnings from owning Sky over the past few years have been absolutely invaluable to me.


Murphy's Law dicated that next week a takeover offer will present. That's ok if it does - I don't have a crystal ball, and holding while hoping a greater fool will come along to buy your shares is hardly investing. I have sold my shares, and feel pretty damn good about it.

Good luck to everyone still hanging in there. It will be interesting to see how this play out for Sky over the next few years!


The skullduggery with the SP over the last two years and more recently shows that there is some manipulation of the shareprice taking place and the only outcome is for a takeover or a substantial increase in holding at some stage soon by someone.

The tactics have worked in that one of the stalwarts (Mista Tea) of the value in SKY, has given up the ghost. Not quite clear on your post as you say you are down $40k but you feel pretty dammn good about getting out. In any case, patience makes the profit, and profit is the reward for bearing uncertainty. It may not be a takeover coming soon, but now paying dividends and while not a future of super profits, there is a place for consistency of future profit and dividends. What more can you ask for. Takeover will be the icing on the cake, but if it doesnt happen we have a ball rolling now to a higher SP. I would advise to hold on for a while yet. You never make money selling low and that is what we have now a low SP.

airedale
13-09-2022, 07:12 PM
MT, decision made for you and you have your reasons. Remember the old saying that if the facts change you can always change your mind.....and buy back in.

mikelee
13-09-2022, 07:43 PM
I'm happy holding for now. Cash flow is more relevant to me atm than SP, so as long as dividend out performs TD rates in the near future I'm not in a hurry to cash in. I need some excitement in my life anyway so rather wait and see how things pan out. :cool:

stoploss
13-09-2022, 09:15 PM
Oh dear …
Sky TV staff are venting over a plan to cut long service leave and free TV subs, prompting an emergency meeting with the chief executive.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129875474/sky-tv-bosses-tell-staff-no-more-free-tv?cid=app-iPhone

mistaTea
13-09-2022, 09:31 PM
Oh dear …
Sky TV staff are venting over a plan to cut long service leave and free TV subs, prompting an emergency meeting with the chief executive.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129875474/sky-tv-bosses-tell-staff-no-more-free-tv?cid=app-iPhone

Just embarrassing really. Who in their right mind would remove free sky tv from staff and expect the reaction to be anything other than outrage?

Unhappy customers and I happy staff now. Great.

JAX
13-09-2022, 10:40 PM
Oh dear …
Sky TV staff are venting over a plan to cut long service leave and free TV subs, prompting an emergency meeting with the chief executive.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129875474/sky-tv-bosses-tell-staff-no-more-free-tv?cid=app-iPhone

This seems so ridiculous - the cost is effectively zero unless they are that desperate for subs they need to grow their business with a few hundred employees and are counting that.

The reality is the employees probably massively over value it - you can be sure some hang around due to these "benefits", when if they went shopping in the job market at the moment the $100 a month saving or 60c an hour - is probably way less than any payrise they might otherwise likely get in this crazy job market. Sky seem to be acting like its easy to hire at the moment, wish I knew their secret as it definitely is not.

Really makes you question some of the management decision making skills.

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 06:57 AM
This seems so ridiculous - the cost is effectively zero unless they are that desperate for subs they need to grow their business with a few hundred employees and are counting that.

The reality is the employees probably massively over value it - you can be sure some hang around due to these "benefits", when if they went shopping in the job market at the moment the $100 a month saving or 60c an hour - is probably way less than any payrise they might otherwise likely get in this crazy job market. Sky seem to be acting like its easy to hire at the moment, wish I knew their secret as it definitely is not.

Really makes you question some of the management decision making skills.

It’s especially tough when you consider the s****y new CBD offices that the execs have moved into.

The worker bees are still in Mt Wellington.

At least, they thought, we still get free Sky TV!

NEK minut…

Management just keep making bad decision after bad decision lately. I do not think Sophie is cut out to be a CEO either quite frankly.

winner69
14-09-2022, 08:00 AM
……….

I do not think Sophie is cut out to be a CEO either quite frankly.

I told you that over a year ago mrT but you sort of ‘disagreed’

Glad that now you are free from a huge emotional attachment to SKT you are starting to think more objectively and seeing Sophie for what she is …and a few of her top team are don’t cut the mustard as well

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 08:02 AM
I told you that over a year ago mrT but you sort of ‘disagreed’

Glad that now you are free from a huge emotional attachment to SKT you are starting to think more objectively and seeing Sophie for what she is …and a few of your top team are don’t cut the mustard as well

Yes, this is a fair comment.

Entrep
14-09-2022, 08:06 AM
It’s especially tough when you consider the s****y new CBD offices that the execs have moved into.

Where are the execs now?

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 08:46 AM
Where are the execs now?

I love how ST edited my sw@nky comment. Didn't like the word w@nk! Ha!

Top management now spend most of their time in some plush new offices in the heart of Auckland CBD now. Only the serfs still in Mt Wellington.

I guess they need to raise revenue by charging staff for Sky now to pay for the rent on the new building.

winner69
14-09-2022, 09:01 AM
I love how ST edited my sw@nky comment. Didn't like the word w@nk! Ha!

Top management now spend most of their time in some plush new offices in the heart of Auckland CBD now. Only the serfs still in Mt Wellington.

I guess they need to raise revenue by charging staff for Sky now to pay for the rent on the new building.

Does Sophie still commute from Nelson

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 09:12 AM
Does Sophie still commute from Nelson

Yes, not sure how often. But Sky will be paying a small fortune to fly her back and forth and put her up in a nice hotel I am sure.

winner69
14-09-2022, 09:20 AM
Reading Briscoes update it’s plain to see how well you look after your ‘crew’ makes all the difference to long term performance

bottomfeeder
14-09-2022, 09:38 AM
Just embarrassing really. Who in their right mind would remove free sky tv from staff and expect the reaction to be anything other than outrage?

Unhappy customers and I happy staff now. Great.

From upramper to downramper in one easy step.

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 10:11 AM
From upramper to downramper in one easy step.

I guess your ST handle is perfectly chosen.

Baa_Baa
14-09-2022, 10:36 AM
From upramper to downramper in one easy step.

Hell hath no fury like a sharetrader scorned.

Hopefully he'll grow tired of commenting on a company he no longer owns. :sleep:
I'd be more interested TBH in where MT invests his large pile of cash :t_up:

mistaTea
14-09-2022, 10:55 AM
I'd be more interested TBH in where MT invests his large pile of cash :t_up:

So that you can avoid buying the same thing...

silu
15-09-2022, 11:27 AM
So it was external management consultants that said that the employee bonuses were too generous? First of all - what a stupid and cruel thing to do. And secondly - how does that not scream as window dressing asking to be taken over?

I take mistaTea's exit as a clear signal that a takeover is on the horizon.

airedale
15-09-2022, 03:31 PM
Deleted post


So it was external management consultants that said that the employee bonuses were too generous? First of all - what a stupid and cruel thing to do. And secondly - how does that not scream as window dressing asking to be taken over?

I take mistaTea's exit as a clear signal that a takeover is on the horizon.
Let's do some guesstimates here. Say there were 100 staff getting a Sky package of $100. By cancelling that condition of their employment SKT save $10,000. That is a paltry sum and why would you unsettle the staff for such a small amount. You could double or treble these figures and the paltry saving still does not make sense.

Entrep
15-09-2022, 03:58 PM
So it was external management consultants that said that the employee bonuses were too generous? First of all - what a stupid and cruel thing to do. And secondly - how does that not scream as window dressing asking to be taken over?

I take mistaTea's exit as a clear signal that a takeover is on the horizon.

Got a link to the article on it?

Mel
15-09-2022, 04:57 PM
Let's do some guesstimates here. Say there were 100 staff getting a Sky package of $100. By cancelling that condition of their employment SKT save $10,000. That is a paltry sum and why would you unsettle the staff for such a small amount. You could double or treble these figures and the paltry saving still does not make sense.
Reflective of an incredibly poor management decision on the free subs - makes no sense whichever way you look at it. Losing what little confidence I have in the Sky management and their decision-making process!!

Poet
15-09-2022, 07:16 PM
Let's do some guesstimates here. Say there were 100 staff getting a Sky package of $100. By cancelling that condition of their employment SKT save $10,000. That is a paltry sum and why would you unsettle the staff for such a small amount. You could double or treble these figures and the paltry saving still does not make sense.

Presumably it doesn't cost SKT anything to actually provide the free subs to staff, so their only cost is the opportunity cost of those staff who were getting a free sub but who would otherwise have been paying for it - so maybe 20% of the staff (or $2000 pa using your numbers). Another ludicrous decision to add to the billboard debacle - I sold out completely today and very glad to be shot of this lot.

I wouldn't normally invest in a company whose service I wouldn't buy, but this was an exception just because their shares at under 14c a while back were such compelling value. But I've since decided that their product (just awful), decision making, communication, governance are all so appalling that I simply can't stay.

As exhibit A, I give you their choice to build a new set top box at an incredibly high capex (and they can't even do that properly and on time) in an era where the go to is smart TVs. If they think people are going to continue to pay $100 plus per month for that going forward then they are in for a rude awakening.

Anyway GLTH

silu
16-09-2022, 09:52 AM
Got a link to the article on it?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129875474/sky-bosses-tell-staff-no-more-free-tv

I find this move incredibly petty. It doesn't cost them much at all in costs.

mistaTea
16-09-2022, 10:41 AM
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129875474/sky-bosses-tell-staff-no-more-free-tv

I find this move incredibly petty. It doesn't cost them much at all in costs.

Agreed this is yet another ridiculous move by Sophie and the team. It is astounding that they seem to have farmed everything out to advisors (what Jack Bogle would refer to as the 'helpers').

And if cutting staff benefits while we are in a very tight labour market for skilled workers is the kind of recommendations these guys are coming up with - the 'helpers' should be sacked right away.

In terms of the cost...there is a cost to Sky (it is not just opportunity cost of revenue as some posters have claimed).

When content deals are done, the contracts can include variable and/or fixed cost elements. So, for example, in the Sky Starter or Entertainment bundles, Sky will pay the content owners x cents per user per channel. It is a good model that should keep the content owners and Sky TV aligned...if Sky can grow their customer base then the content owners get paid more etc.

Because of the variable cost component to many of the channels Sky TV carry, there is a very real cost to the business in providing complimentary Sky to the workers.

However, the total cost in these benefits will be paltry when you consider the big picture. Free Sky TV and NEON will be a highly valued benefit to existing staff, and would be an attractive sweetner in recruitment efforts. Especially when you consider that Sky TV does not pay especially well in terms of salary, and having to work from Mt Wellington is not convenient or desireable for many.

Yes, shareholders expect management to review everything in terms of cost cutting opportunities to ensure Sky is leaner in the future. But if it has gotten to the point that in order to try to offset inflation in content costs now Sophie is having to go after staff...well, that is troubling indeed.

Unless her plan is to make more people quit so they can reduce staff levels without having to pay redundancies. Not great!

The next lot of bad news will be that Sky have secured RWC 2023. It will be an opportunity to offload RP, but no doubt Sky will pay a lot of money for the tournament. A short tournament during unsociable hours that won't make a great deal of difference to subs. Holding the rights to spectacles like this is more of an ego trip.

My critics can call me a sudden downramper if they wish - but these are the facts as I see them. And, the reality is, despite the 'good results' just reported - in my opinion, the risks to Sky TV are far greater now than at any time during the last 5 years.

Sky will keep rugby, though it will remain expensive. And with SL in the mix, if Sky try to negotiate lower renewal costs the threat will be that NZR are prepared to go OTT, or with Spark Sport if they are still around.

Warner-Discovery is the really big risk though. A combined HBOMAX-Discovery platform would be a compelling global player, and I have no doubt that they will want to launch in NZ. I would be very surprised if Sky managed to get another exclusive deal. Especially considering we are already "co-exclusive" with Discovery. If Sky did somehow get an exclusive deal, it would cost an absolute fortune and you can kiss another huge chunk of FCF goodbye.

If Sky get a deal, I think it is more likely that it would be co-exclusive. And that might explain the HBO extension - it was probably to line up the expiry date with the Discovery contract.

Now if they have a co-exclusive deal, what would that mean for NEON? Well, not good news I am afraid. HBO is the big drawcard for NEON. If that is the main reason I have subscribed and I have an option of either 1) subbing to NEON to get the latest HBO shows or 2) subbing to HBOMAX+ to get the entire content library - well, I suspect a number of people will ditch NEON.

And then the recent milestone of revenue growth from increased streaming subs outstripping revenue loss from STB cancellations will go into reverse.

I have certainly not taken my decision to sell my Sky shares lightly. It won't be all doom and gloom for the company, and there will still be opportunities for them to exploit I am sure. But I think the risks are way high at the moment.

And it is also why I think someone would have to have balls of steel to pony up hundreds of millions of dollars right now to take Sky private. Even if market cap drops by $70M to $340M after the cash is paid out...a buyer is going to have to pay somewhere in the $400M - $430M range. In this climate, to pay that amount of money you would have to have supreme confidence in your ability to add value and enable the business to grow profitably, given the risks outlined.

And a $340M post cash distribution market cap will represent a 6.76% yield based on upper end divvy guidance. When you consider that Spark currently trade at a 6.76% yield, you would have to say that the current shareprice for Sky is more than fair (in fact, too generous). That is the conslusion I drew anyway.

bottomfeeder
16-09-2022, 12:31 PM
Can't imagine that removal of free sky for staff is a cost cutting exercise. Not only would the impact be relatively light, but you lose a lot of beta testers. Disgruntled staff also are not something any manager with any sense would want under them. I think that there is something more to it. In the event of a takeover, merged staff need to have the same benefits. Rather than extend free sky and other free perks which a takeover company may not have, for various reasons, its easier to remove the lowest common denominator. No doubt there may be perks tax considerations, if that's still a thing. Clean and lean makes a company more attractive. If your a staff member and you are not happy - leave. Saves paying redundancy. Those essential staff will be offered other incentives. Moves in technology must dictate less operational staff required. Also takeover companies require less staff due to synergies. Better to get the worst carried out now, rather than with new management having to be the dogs.

All points to a merger or takeover.

mistaTea
16-09-2022, 01:24 PM
All points to a merger or takeover.

Time well tell.

The idea though that Sky effectively cutting staff pay is the new evidence that "points to a merger or takeover" is definitely a new one though!

I think the Air NZ - Virgin tie up was a story that had a lot more merit! And even that had cold water poured on it today!

silu
16-09-2022, 02:38 PM
Time well tell.

The idea though that Sky effectively cutting staff pay is the new evidence that "points to a merger or takeover" is definitely a new one though!

I think the Air NZ - Virgin tie up was a story that had a lot more merit! And even that had cold water poured on it today!

I also alluded to that in my post as it has happened to me before. I had some of my benefits removed out of the blue that were not even that great and then not long after we merged with another company.

mistaTea
16-09-2022, 02:44 PM
I also alluded to that in my post as it has happened to me before. I had some of my benefits removed out of the blue that were not even that great and then not long after we merged with another company.

Perhaps they will merge with NZME, and don't want to give their workers free Sky TV! Entirely possible!

Synergies with NZM are there and a deal is easy - you just use the prevailing share price of each company as currency.

NZM market cap $230M.

Sky market cap is $330M when you adjust for the $70M cash return.

Merged entity with NZM shareholders getting 41% of the merged business.

Awesome deal - for NZM!

mistaTea
16-09-2022, 02:49 PM
It is a pity about the relative values (between NZM and SKT) not currently being favourable to Sky shareholders...

HOWEVER...if a deal can be done here I do think they should explore it. Sky do need to diversify (and obviously realise this given the attempt at buying MW).

Existing shareholders will get dilluted a lot if such a deal takes place, but perhaps will do ok in the end if the market likes the synergies.

Does not resolve the risks for things like HBO etc of course, but extending their reach in media with a company like NZM has a lot of merit in my view.

bottomfeeder
16-09-2022, 04:39 PM
If there is a merger or takeover, I think it will be a company that has a larger cornerstone shareholder. Because of the skullduggery on SKT share price and trading, there is more incentive for a cornerstone shareholder. Does that fit the NZME profile. Mind you all wild speculation.

airedale
17-09-2022, 09:44 AM
I see that the online Business Desk has something on Sky TV. Does anyone have a link or a version of it .?

bottomfeeder
20-09-2022, 10:59 AM
Tomorrow is the record date for Sky TV shares. Today's price is $2.36. That will get you around 40 cents {approx} when the share cancellation is worked out. Whatever the final pay out, the dividend percentage is well in to double figures at today's SP.

This was put up on 8 September.

I tried to find the record date for the capital return. Couldn't find it anywhere. Can anyone tell me where it is listed.

biker
20-09-2022, 11:09 AM
From the announcement.

“Sky shareholders will receive more information regarding the capital return in the Notice of
Meeting that is expected to be released in October”

Sideshow Bob
20-09-2022, 11:09 AM
I tried to find the record date for the capital return. Couldn't find it anywhere. Can anyone tell me where it is listed.

Timings and details on page 27.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/397578/377465.pdf

bottomfeeder
20-09-2022, 11:22 AM
SP starting to look like good value again. When the capital return progresses, the effect on the SP should drop it by 40 cents. But this capital return doesn't affect the profitability greatly, or the dividend, except for the amount of rent on the leaseback premises which they didn't have to pay before. Presumably they still pay rates insurance and outgoings. I wonder about maintenance and who is responsible for those costs. Its a little bit simplistic as there are of course so many variables that will affect future profitability. But sometimes you don't want to overthink it to much, as the oh me, oh my and negativity starts to sink in with the thought that the as the SP is dropping so fast that the market is correct and is judging the future of SKT correctly.

I might be putting my orders in at just below current SP.

mikelee
20-09-2022, 07:28 PM
Current SP could just be a global trend from the flow-on effect of higher interest rate. Most airlines and airports don't see business back to pre-pandemic level till around 2025, so I'd not be surprised if business confidence remains low for another 2-3 years.

bottomfeeder
21-09-2022, 10:36 AM
Current SP could just be a global trend from the flow-on effect of higher interest rate. Most airlines and airports don't see business back to pre-pandemic level till around 2025, so I'd not be surprised if business confidence remains low for another 2-3 years.

Amazes me that Auckland Airport shares didnt tank over the last two years.

Low interest rates didnt last long, its possible higher interest rates wont last long either. All economies always seem to be in the doldrums because no one in any economy can accept hard times and live with them.

Moneyman
21-09-2022, 01:23 PM
A lower share price means more shares cancelled in November and EPS accretion and a higher dividend yield correct?

mistaTea
21-09-2022, 01:28 PM
A lower share price means more shares cancelled in November and EPS accretion and a higher dividend yield correct?

That would be the case if they were doing an on market share buyback. A lower SP would mean they bought back more shares, and those shareholders who hung onto their shares would have a bigger piece of the pie in the future (and therefore higher dividend yield etc).

But they are not doing that. They will just decide the total # of shares to cancel and pay each shareholder $X.xx per cancelled share. Everyone still owns the same size piece of the pie and their future dividend yield is unchanged.

You may want to rethink your ST handle if this is the kind of thing you are asking chief! I'm just saying...

bottomfeeder
21-09-2022, 02:36 PM
That would be the case if they were doing an on market share buyback. A lower SP would mean they bought back more shares, and those shareholders who hung onto their shares would have a bigger piece of the pie in the future (and therefore higher dividend yield etc).

But they are not doing that. They will just decide the total # of shares to cancel and pay each shareholder $X.xx per cancelled share. Everyone still owns the same size piece of the pie and their future dividend yield is unchanged.

You may want to rethink your ST handle if this is the kind of thing you are asking chief! I'm just saying...

I think they are valid questions. They will cancel shares, and pay each shareholder. Each shareholder will own the same percentage of the total company, but with fewer shares. Profit, dividend yield should go up per share, but NTA should remain the same. Dependant on the required div per share can be maintained or increased per share, the SP eventually go up, unless thus increased value is already factored into the current SP.

mistaTea
21-09-2022, 02:53 PM
I think they are valid questions. They will cancel shares, and pay each shareholder. Each shareholder will own the same percentage of the total company, but with fewer shares. Profit, dividend yield should go up per share, but NTA should remain the same. Dependant on the required div per share can be maintained or increased per share, the SP eventually go up, unless thus increased value is already factored into the current SP.

Yes EPS will go up, but you will own less shares so your yield remains unchanged.

All that matters is the market capitalisation of Sky (regardless of how that manifests itself on a per share basis, which will change depending on how many shares they cancel).

Current market cap = $386M. Subtract the $70M payout and the value of Sky TV's operations is currently $316M.

Based on their guidance I would anticipate the market cap to fall much further. We all know by now that I am terrible at predicting SP movements, however I think logic is on my side here.

A $20M divvy (midpoint) is a 6.3% yield based on a $316M market cap. That would mean the market expects a lower yield from Sky than it does Spark! (6.72%) (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/SPK).

If Sky TV had a compelling growth story then that could make sense. But Sky TV does not have a believable growth story. Broadband is not a growth area for them and the new STB will (at best) further slow down the STB attrition rate. In the meantime their ability to renew key contracts on favourable terms is pretty much gone now. So because it is hard to see growth from where they are now, you would expect the market to expect a higher yield than a 'sure thing' company like Spark (and that means the market cap has a way to go still in terms of dropping).

They blew their opportunity to become a telco (I told them directly to buy Vocus and now $700M looks like a steal. Especially since they were prepared to spend almost half that buying a billboard and radio station). That ship has well and truly sailed now, so there is no realistic growth opportunity for them in telco now.

The next sensible idea is probably a tie up with NZME. I have outlined all of the reasons why. This will help them become a bigger entity and go after that advertising revenue SM is banging on about. However I wouldn't expect the market to immediately fall in love with the new merged entity. It is probably the right move for both parties to join forces now, however the market will still need some convinving around the 'growth story' for these two legacy players.

Moneyman
21-09-2022, 07:07 PM
That’s how I understand and interpret it. Dividend going forward is the same but on a lower overall investment so yield per share owned is higher (price paid less 47 cents).

mistaTea
21-09-2022, 07:50 PM
That’s how I understand and interpret it. Dividend going forward is the same but on a lower overall investment so yield per share owned is higher (price paid less 47 cents).

Yes…but you will also own less shares…

xafalcon
22-09-2022, 09:54 AM
New Sky box to cost $200

What a short sighted decision this is. Whoever dreamed it up needs to retire (is this the ghost of Fellet?)

mistaTea
22-09-2022, 10:02 AM
New Sky box to cost $200

What a short sighted decision this is. Whoever dreamed it up needs to retire (is this the ghost of Fellet?)

When Fellet was in charge, the plan for the Infinite Video STB rollout was:



Offer the new box to customers with a one-off fee
Stop charging MYSKY rental fee to customers who elected to keep their current box


A very good plan I thought - however, all these years later - judging by Sophie's email I got this morning it seems that you either fork out $200 for a STB that is an unknown in terms of performance and reliability or keep paying your MYSKY rental fee.

Not great for customers I don't think.

mistaTea
22-09-2022, 10:15 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-reveals-fee-features-for-new-sky-box-plus-cheaper-sky-pod/ZJ2JAGOGUUZC7Z2MMLP5D4XIIU/

So you have to pay Sky $200 for the new box...and then a $15/month rental fee like MYSKY if you want to be able to record shows!

HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA! These guys have actually lost the plot. Who in their right mind would go for that?

Long standing STB customers will probably be offered the box for free. But those long standing subs (5 years+ I assume) are less likely to want it.

Jesus Christ.

Sideshow Bob
22-09-2022, 10:55 AM
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-tv-reveals-fee-features-for-new-sky-box-plus-cheaper-sky-pod/ZJ2JAGOGUUZC7Z2MMLP5D4XIIU/

So you have to pay Sky $200 for the new box...and then a $15/month rental fee like MYSKY if you want to be able to record shows!

HAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHA! These guys have actually lost the plot. Who in their right mind would go for that?

Long standing STB customers will probably be offered the box for free. But those long standing subs (5 years+ I assume) are less likely to want it.

Jesus Christ.

Yep, example #2,983 that Sky have lost the plot.

Entrep
22-09-2022, 11:13 AM
Yep, $200... no thanks. Will keep my Smart TV which does all that and my existing STB.

snigmac
22-09-2022, 11:39 AM
I can't find a date for the full roll out and it appears that only a limited number are available? Is anyone else reading this differently?

This project is more likely to be canned before we get clarity on the full rollout. The device doesn't even have a 1tb hard drive..

uravgtrader
22-09-2022, 11:47 AM
I thought they said the new sky box will come with a 1TB HDD. The Pod will have nothing though.

moimoi
22-09-2022, 11:58 AM
So they are intending to further Tax their only customer segment that actually pays them a meaningful monthly Sub....?

Whoops....looks like there have been errors in the selection process for the SKY customer research focus groups.

mistaTea
22-09-2022, 12:03 PM
Geekzone says that you won't even own the box despite paying Sky $200!

percy
22-09-2022, 12:31 PM
The new Sky Box is almost here!

I’m delighted to give you an update on the new Sky Box. Our new hybrid box will transform your viewing experience by bringing together the reliability of satellite TV with streaming via broadband, so you can enjoy the best of Sky, on demand content and streaming apps, all in one place.

You’ll be able to access your favourite content with a personalised home screen and voice-controlled remote. And with a 1TB hard drive, My Sky and the ability to record 5 shows while watching another live, you can record more of what you love to watch later.

Want to be the first to hear about the new Sky Box?
As stocks will be limited in the early stages of our rollout before Christmas, we’re prioritising offers to our existing customers first before making the new Sky Box available to new customers.

The one-off price to enjoy Sky’s great content via our new Sky Box is $200. And to say thank you to our most loyal customers we’re putting together a range of special offers. We’ll be in touch directly regarding any offers available to you.

If you’d like to take a look at the new Sky Box please visit newskybox.co.nz where you can register your interest to be first to hear more.

Love your current Sky Box?
If you love your Sky the way it is, there’s no need to change! Please keep enjoying your Sky in the way that works for you.


Sky Pod for VodafoneTV customers

You might hear about another new Sky product in the coming days, and I want to let you know why we’ve created it.

There are a number of Kiwis who enjoy Sky via VodafoneTV, which is closing soon. VodafoneTV is an IP-only service meaning its customers access Sky through their internet service rather than via satellite.

To meet their needs, we’ve developed Sky Pod, a portable little device that enables access to Sky TV and streaming apps without the need for a satellite dish, but it doesn’t include any recording capability.

While the first phase of the Sky Pod rollout is for VodafoneTV customers, given their immediate need for an alternative solution, we’ll be looking to offer it more widely in the future and will keep you informed.


In closing, I am aware that in recent months some customers have experienced delays when getting in touch with our Sky Crew. If this was your experience, please accept my apology, I’m pleased the team have worked hard to improve our service levels in recent weeks. I am grateful for your patience and assure you we remain focused in supporting our crew in this space.

Thank you for being a Sky customer, and I look forward to sharing the new Sky Box with you soon.

Ngā mihi nui (thank you to all)
Sophie Moloney

Benny1
22-09-2022, 12:49 PM
Getting fed up with paying $15 a month for the privilege of recording on Sky...I thought I saw somewhere that this charge would disappear with the new box..
Will be cancelling my sport after the league season but seriously considering if I should just get rid of Sky altogether...

Sideshow Bob
22-09-2022, 01:00 PM
Share price up 4c/1.8%.

Joshuatree
23-09-2022, 07:52 AM
Getting fed up with paying $15 a month for the privilege of recording on Sky...I thought I saw somewhere that this charge would disappear with the new box..
Will be cancelling my sport after the league season but seriously considering if I should just get rid of Sky altogether...

Not a shareholder then,cutting off nose to spite da face.
Thanks Percy, I'm looking forward to the new box.

Mel
23-09-2022, 09:04 AM
Capital return process kicked off:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/399318/379639.pdf

silu
23-09-2022, 09:18 AM
Just a thought without much purpose. Reckon we can get some of the Vodafone TV customers interested in our box? There are about 100k out there that were very happy with the functionality of their box. Of course pricing will be the biggest hurdle but to some convenience is more important than money.

Sideshow Bob
23-09-2022, 09:34 AM
Capital return process kicked off:
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/SKT/399318/379639.pdf

Buying today at $2.21 would mean get the $2.40, and give a weighted price on the remaining shares at $2.172.

Lets face it, TAB won't be offering odds on the capital return as no way shareholders are going to leave it to the directors to fritter away.

3mman
23-09-2022, 01:46 PM
A nice $39k dividend today. Should keep the wife happy for a few days :):)
Looks like a few are reinvesting judging by the share price

RTM
23-09-2022, 02:13 PM
A nice $39k dividend today. Should keep the wife happy for a few days :):)
Looks like a few are reinvesting judging by the share price

My dividend was nice….but not as nice as that ! Well done, ballsy holding, that’s for sure.
Did you do a deal with Ogg & MRT ?

winner69
23-09-2022, 02:27 PM
A nice $39k dividend today. Should keep the wife happy for a few days :):)
Looks like a few are reinvesting judging by the share price

.... and your close to quarter million coming soon will keep her happy for how long :):)

3mman
23-09-2022, 02:47 PM
My dividend was nice….but not as nice as that ! Well done, ballsy holding, that’s for sure.
Did you do a deal with Ogg & MRT ?

Should have done a deal with MrT. Was buying some a couple of weeks ago @$2.60. Aaaarrrggghhh

mistaTea
23-09-2022, 03:18 PM
Should have done a deal with MrT. Was buying some a couple of weeks ago @$2.60. Aaaarrrggghhh

I would have given you a great price!!

3mman
23-09-2022, 03:56 PM
I would have given you a great price!!

LOL. If you’ve been selling for the last 6 weeks I probably bought your shares @ $2.60
That makes me feel better now paying that price.

mikelee
24-09-2022, 09:27 AM
.... and your close to quarter million coming soon will keep her happy for how long :):)

Shame that we still paid so much tax it, staring at that gross figures on my dividend statement and wishing it was that I got instead. LOL

Zaphod
24-09-2022, 10:32 AM
Getting fed up with paying $15 a month for the privilege of recording on Sky...I thought I saw somewhere that this charge would disappear with the new box..

I'm still not sure whether the $15/month fee is for the recording one or more channels or just for recording the maximum 5 channels at once. More details to follow no doubt.

Our MySky+ (Pace) box is starting to fail due to age, so hopefully we'll see some further details released over the next few months.

airedale
24-09-2022, 07:18 PM
On one of the subscriber surveys few months ago, the question was:would you pay $15/month or a once only payment of $200.0

Zaphod
25-09-2022, 09:07 AM
On one of the subscriber surveys few months ago, the question was:would you pay $15/month or a once only payment of $200.0

My interpretation of that question, is that it relates to the lease fee for the equipment. Sky at one point offered a similar option to bulk pay the lease for the Pace decoders with a one-off payment of $400 (I forget the exact amount) or $15/month in perpetuity. For the new decoders, Sky appear to have settled on $10/month rather than $15/month for the lease.

Jay
25-09-2022, 10:19 PM
On one of the subscriber surveys few months ago, the question was:would you pay $15/month or a once only payment of $200.0

Yes you're right, I remember that as well
I paid a 1 off up front fee as well, have saved over time, instead of "buying" it 10 times over without any loss of replacements/repairs etc

xafalcon
27-09-2022, 10:42 AM
Yes you're right, I remember that as well
I paid a 1 off up front fee as well, have saved over time, instead of "buying" it 10 times over without any loss of replacements/repairs etc

If you purchase an aftermarket satellite receiver that is compatible with the sky TV access card, you can watch and record sky TV content without any "my sky" fee whatsoever. You just purchase the bare bones subscription from sky TV, that comes with a free receiver (that you don't use)

bottomfeeder
27-09-2022, 10:59 AM
Where would you get an aftermarket SKY compatible receiver.

airedale
27-09-2022, 11:51 AM
If you purchase an aftermarket satellite receiver that is compatible with the sky TV access card, you can watch and record sky TV content without any "my sky" fee whatsoever. You just purchase the bare bones subscription from sky TV, that comes with a free receiver (that you don't use)
The "aftermarket satellite receiver"? is that the set top box?

RTM
27-09-2022, 02:37 PM
Where would you get an aftermarket SKY compatible receiver.

I am interested if in that as well !

Airw0lf
27-09-2022, 07:31 PM
Where would you get an aftermarket SKY compatible receiver.My "aftermarket" Sky receiver is actually the Kodi media centre software. There are addons available for Sky (Live TV and on demand - just enter your Sky credentials) as well as ESPN (which you can log into using your Sky credentials.) I find that works extremely well for me. If Sky somehow blocked this I would probably lose the will to pay for Sky - it's way more convenient than the Sky box itself, especially when you can have Amazon Prime, Netflix and Disney+ and Freeview channels all running through Kodi. It's basically what the Sky box of the future could/should be but I've had it for years. Agree with previous commenters that Sky have been stuck in an old world paradigm where they think the box is the pathway to everything.

xafalcon
28-09-2022, 09:38 AM
I am interested if in that as well !

They are freely available. I have Ultraplus and Xcruiser satellite receivers (STB). Both are able to use the Sky TV card. Both can record to a USB device (memory stick or portable HDD). Around $150 cost

They also allow other satellite TV services to be watched, if you have the correct dish(es)

Kodi boxes also work

But you must always ask the vendor "does this work with the sky TV card?"

RTM
28-09-2022, 09:41 AM
They are freely available. I have Ultraplus and Xcruiser satellite receivers (STB). Both are able to use the Sky TV card. Both can record to a USB device (memory stick or portable HDD). Around $150 cost

They also allow other satellite TV services to be watched, if you have the correct dish(es)

Kodi boxes also work

But you must always ask the vendor "does this work with the sky TV card?"

Thanks.
Another question.
Will the Sky TV Card continue to be used ? Is there still one in their new box ?

xafalcon
28-09-2022, 10:25 AM
Thanks.
Another question.
Will the Sky TV Card continue to be used ? Is there still one in their new box ?

No idea, but highly likely

But you don't need to "upgrade" to the new box. Keep your old STB, tell Sky TV you no longer want the $15pm recording functionality, and use the card in any suitable receiver

Entrep
28-09-2022, 10:30 AM
Just FYI on these more technical questions about how Sky works, Geekzone is an excellent resource - https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=106

RTM
28-09-2022, 11:16 AM
No idea, but highly likely

But you don't need to "upgrade" to the new box. Keep your old STB, tell Sky TV you no longer want the $15pm recording functionality, and use the card in any suitable receiver

Yes...I understand. Thanks.

bottomfeeder
30-09-2022, 11:01 AM
A potential acquiring company is making a last ditch effort to get the SP down before making a move. $2.05 on low volume, its ridiculous. A takeover will commence soon. The acquiring company does not want to lose the proposed capital return, and will make a move before it will be finalised.

Entrep
30-09-2022, 12:07 PM
A potential acquiring company is making a last ditch effort to get the SP down before making a move. $2.05 on low volume, its ridiculous. A takeover will commence soon. The acquiring company does not want to lose the proposed capital return, and will make a move before it will be finalised.

Stated as fact?

bottomfeeder
30-09-2022, 12:15 PM
Removed by poster.

JohnnyTheHorse
30-09-2022, 12:20 PM
Is that $2.20 offer still on the table? Could be interested soon.

mistaTea
30-09-2022, 12:28 PM
Is that $2.20 offer still on the table? Could be interested soon.


My man.

https://c.tenor.com/lNMyjjSWLYcAAAAd/my-man-my-man-denzel.gif

Entrep
30-09-2022, 02:05 PM
I see you toned down your reply, or was moderated as being offensive.

lol, calm down. Who changed their reply - me or you? My post is unedited.

winner69
30-09-2022, 02:21 PM
Here's Sophie charming the guy from Craigs

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/09/sophie-molony-ceo-interview

bottomfeeder
30-09-2022, 03:20 PM
Removed by poster.

Entrep
30-09-2022, 03:30 PM
You are just so full of yourself. Your entire post only appears when you log out. Smart Ass.

Riiiiiiiiiight.

14196

Can you enlighten me on what I said? Or what the full post is when logged out? Genuinely curious.

bottomfeeder
30-09-2022, 04:25 PM
Removed by poster.

nztx
30-09-2022, 05:57 PM
The SP is sliding .. Have SKT decided to look at buying some other curious can of worms again,
or have MW come back with a slightly different plan for all the intended Cap Return bucks ? ;)

airedale
01-10-2022, 01:55 PM
So if Craigs are giving it air time then they are probably tipping it as a buy.


Here's Sophie charming the guy from Craigs

https://craigsip.com/insights/overview/2022/09/sophie-molony-ceo-interview

Entrep
01-10-2022, 04:24 PM
So if Craigs are giving it air time then they are probably tipping it as a buy.

Which in turn means it's a sell.

Airw0lf
02-10-2022, 11:48 AM
My Sky broadband is going up by $6/month...now $75 total for 300 Mbits down.

Zaphod
02-10-2022, 01:04 PM
My Sky broadband is going up by $6/month...now $75 total for 300 Mbits down.

Most Retail Service Provider's (RSP) are passing along the cost increases from the Local Fibre Company (LFC). Over the last few months, several RSP's have increased their charges around $5-$8/month.

Baa_Baa
02-10-2022, 01:14 PM
Most Retail Service Provider's (RSP) are passing along the cost increases from the Local Fibre Company (LFC). Over the last few months, several RSP's have increased their charges around $5-$8/month.

Yes, just about everything in the Broadband space has gone up in price. https://www.broadbandcompare.co.nz/ This is not unique to Sky at all.

airedale
03-10-2022, 03:19 PM
From page 7 of today's announcement, "the board considers that there are no imminent prospects for an acquisition".

Habits
06-10-2022, 06:51 AM
World Cup rights announcement coming... fingers crossed

biker
06-10-2022, 07:05 AM
GREAT NEWS!
This has been coming for a while. Did the market forget?


Sky TV is expected to next week be confirmed as having won the broadcast rights to the next four Rugby World
Cups, in a deal that will also see it offload RugbyPass and potentially look to work with both TVNZ and Warner
Brothers as free to air partners.
The pay-TV operator signalled in July that it was in advanced discussions with World Rugby about a "wide-
ranging rights" deal that sources say will include the 2023 and 2027 World Cups as well as the 2025 and 2029
tournaments.
The deal has now been signed off and an announcement is expected within days.

freebee
06-10-2022, 07:05 AM
Great news

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-sky-to-reveal-mega-tv-rights-deal-but-commentators-snubbed/GZDQO4ABEDCNO4OAEHFIJ2XZFQ/

silu
06-10-2022, 08:24 AM
Great news

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/rugby-sky-to-reveal-mega-tv-rights-deal-but-commentators-snubbed/GZDQO4ABEDCNO4OAEHFIJ2XZFQ/

If you build it they will come.

mistaTea
06-10-2022, 08:52 AM
GREAT NEWS!
This has been coming for a while. Did the market forget?


Sky TV is expected to next week be confirmed as having won the broadcast rights to the next four Rugby World
Cups, in a deal that will also see it offload RugbyPass and potentially look to work with both TVNZ and Warner
Brothers as free to air partners.
The pay-TV operator signalled in July that it was in advanced discussions with World Rugby about a "wide-
ranging rights" deal that sources say will include the 2023 and 2027 World Cups as well as the 2025 and 2029
tournaments.
The deal has now been signed off and an announcement is expected within days.

Will be interesting to see what is released in terms of finalised deal, terms etc.

Winning the RWC is a 'good news' story from the perspective of the brand Sky are trying to promote - Home of Sport. You can't promote that message as easy if your competitors have high profile tournaments. And within Home of Sport, in particular Sky want to remain Home of Rugby. In the process they have managed to offload an expensive investment they made which is now largely worthless to Sky as a going concern. Very good.

Now for the bad news. I remember discussing world cup tournaments with John some time ago - he was certainly never keen on the tournament because it never passed his Cost/Value matrix. The only time Sky won the RWC under his stewardship was back in 2011 when it was in NZ. By then he owned OSB (so could control the entire production) and he could maximise advertising revenue because all matches were played during sociable hours. Apart from that though he took a pass because the value just wasn't there.

This deal certainly sounds expensive - and if Sky have locked themselves into the next four tournaments that is a big call I think.

The majority of rugby fans will already have a Sky Sport or Sky Sport NOW sub. For the much smaller cohort that don't currently sub to Sky but would like to pay to watch the RWC (bearing in mind a number of the key matches will be FTA, a requirement of WR) then they are likely to pay Sky $39.99 for a month of Sky Sport NOW and then cancel. Depending on how the FTA games are stacked, you might only need to pay Sky $19.99 for one week if you are savvy to fill in the gap of good matches between the Opening Ceremony and Quarter Finals to Finals which will largely be FTA anyway.

In that light, this becomes a 'bad news' story for shareholders hoping to get a ROI. Winning the RWC becomes a pyrric victory. It is a very expensive tournament (both in terms of the cash component paid to WR plus all of the marketing and production cost worn by Sky) and revenue either doesn't increase at all as a direct result of having the rights to the tournament or only increases a small amount (and doesn't cover the tournament cost let along produce earnings).

Habits
06-10-2022, 09:39 AM
You have summed it up better than most would MT...

JohnnyTheHorse
06-10-2022, 09:45 AM
Not bag holding RugbyPass must be a positive.

airedale
06-10-2022, 10:25 AM
Hi Mista Tea, I respect your point of view, but not the point about John's Cost/Value matrix. Under John's management the company was going down hill. His Cost/Value theory may not be valid today.

mistaTea
06-10-2022, 10:31 AM
Hi Mista Tea, I respect your point of view, but not the point about John's Cost/Value matrix. Under John's management the company was going down hill. His Cost/Value theory may not be valid today.

I am sorry to have to pull you up on this, but that is a massive oversimplification.

Sky needs someone like JF in charge. Let's not forget that John came from TCI where he was mentored by John Malone. The guy knew what he was doing when he was in charge of Sky.

And he had a good plan for Sky's long term future once NETFLIX came in - merge with Vodafone. Regulators f*cked him and shareholders on that one and it has been downhill from there.

airedale
06-10-2022, 01:58 PM
John may have had a good plan {plan A} for Sky's long term future but when the game changed he did not have Plan B. Hence the 6 year SP slide from 2014 to 2020.


I am sorry to have to pull you up on this, but that is a massive oversimplification.

Sky needs someone like JF in charge. Let's not forget that John came from TCI where he was mentored by John Malone. The guy knew what he was doing when he was in charge of Sky.

And he had a good plan for Sky's long term future once NETFLIX came in - merge with Vodafone. Regulators f*cked him and shareholders on that one and it has been downhill from there.

mistaTea
06-10-2022, 02:18 PM
John may have had a good plan {plan A} for Sky's long term future but when the game changed he did not have Plan B. Hence the 6 year SP slide from 2014 to 2020.

Well, the Voda deal was done in 2016 and blew up in 2017.

John resigned in 2018 (https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sky-ceo-john-fellet-to-step-down/U25H3TTQRDB4J6Z2MHWGDAHKT4/).

His 'Plan A' was the only viable plan for Sky TV. A masterstroke that he got that deal over the line when he did, enabling him to command an attractive valuation for Sky TV at the time (north of $2B). And there was no credible reason as to why that deal should not have gone ahead - the regulators made a mistake on that.

Every lawyer worth their salt at the time said that if Sky-Voda appealed the decision it would be overturned. However, my understanding is that after the Comcom rejected the deal the bankers got in Vodafone's ear and told them they could get an even higher valuation if they IPO'd. So that was the end of that.

After being CEO for so long, and seeing his grand plan for Sky crash and burn like that - I think it was only natural for him to take that as the right time for him to step aside and let some fresh blood come in and take the company forward. Key projects on the roadmap (like Cisco Infinite Video) were at advanced stages, a partnership deal with Vodafone was done instead, Sky delivered their part of Vodafone TV, key relationships with content partners were well embedded...

What more would you expect from him? Sky TV was still gushing huge amounts of FCF when Martin took over and the market cap was still $800M+ despite the headwinds.

I don't think we can blame what has happened to Sky (and the SP) over the last 4 or 5 years on John. And it's not just because I really admire the guy - you have no idea how smart this guy is and the depths of his knowledge until you spend time speaking with him - the historical facts of key events leading up to his resignation don't support this idea that JF ran Sky into the ground and gave Martin a hospital pass. Quite the opposite actually.

mikelee
07-10-2022, 06:55 PM
Over ripe for a take over I reckon. If I were a billionaire I'd have swallowed SKY whole with my pocket change. :cool:

Habits
07-10-2022, 09:09 PM
Over ripe for a take over I reckon. If I were a billionaire I'd have swallowed SKY whole with my pocket change. :cool:

Do we have long to wait mike... until you are a billionaire that is

Almost-confused
08-10-2022, 12:45 PM
Used my votes to vote against Poomans re-election. I just hope everyone else does the same!!

Sideshow Bob
10-10-2022, 09:39 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400206

Rugby World Cup agreement and Rugby Pass sale

Baa_Baa
10-10-2022, 10:07 AM
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/400206

Rugby World Cup agreement and Rugby Pass sale

Seven year exclusive rights deal to 2029!
Sold Rugbypass

"every men’s and every women’s Rugby World Cup, the new WXV (international women’s fifteens competition) and the HSBC World Rugby Sevens Series."

Premium competitions secured include:
• Rugby World Cup 2023, scheduled to be held in France in 2023
• Women’s Rugby World Cup 2025, scheduled to be held in England in 2025
• Rugby World Cup 2027, scheduled to be held in Australia in 2027
• Women’s Rugby World Cup 2029, scheduled to be held in Australia in 2029
• Rugby World Cup Sevens 2026, location to be confirmed
• WXV (new global women’s competition) to 2029
• World Rugby Pacific Four Series (world’s top women’s teams: New Zealand, Australia, Canada and USA) to 2029
• Sevens Series Tournaments to 2029
• World Rugby U20 Championships to 2029

moimoi
10-10-2022, 05:09 PM
The announcement mentions World Rugby will acquire RugbyPass, which SKY purchased for US$40M in August 2019.

What is the sale price.?

Snoopy
10-10-2022, 05:48 PM
The announcement mentions World Rugby will acquire RugbyPass, which SKY purchased for US$40M in August 2019.

What is the sale price.?

Embarrassing.

SNOOPY

Rustycage
10-10-2022, 06:03 PM
I think if they were proud of the figure they would have told us, so I’m gonna say it is minimal at best, $0 at worst

moimoi
10-10-2022, 07:21 PM
What is embarrassing is this kind of corporate waffle announcement evidently meets the “disclosure” requirements of the NZX and ASX.

No figures provided despite the waffle referring to “this significant deal”.

Hiding behind the fake cloak of “commercial confidence” there is nothing for shareholders to base any analysis on.

Given SKY has just bought the rights to the next 2 Women’s Rugby World Cup’s surely it might be useful to the shareholder base to disclose the viewership numbers from this weekend…

GLTA.

Baa_Baa
10-10-2022, 07:40 PM
Maybe I'm a less demanding shareholder, but the way I see it, securing exclusive rights to 7 years of WRC across all codes secures confidence for long term customer eyeballs; and offloading an underperforming loss making asset for an undisclosed value bundled into the rights deal is smart management.

You can look in the rear view mirror all you want and ask yourself woulda coulda shoulda, or worry about the whatif maybe mightbe, but Sky has turned around the business and that's all I bought into, the prospect of a return to profit - tick, return to dividends - tick, slashing costs - tick, growing non STB revenues - tick, declining legacy customer losses - tick.

If you're in this for a capital ten-bagger then I'd understand all the moaning, but if you've been patient and bought around the lows, have a medium-long term horizon, Sky imo is a good investment in sensibly apportioned balanced portfolio. Bet the bank on it - yeah nah. Modest portfolio long term hold - yeah.

Mel
11-10-2022, 05:44 PM
The announcement mentions World Rugby will acquire RugbyPass, which SKY purchased for US$40M in August 2019.

What is the sale price.?
The original deal consisted of a US$10m up-front cash payment, US$20m in shares, and earnouts of up to US$10m if performance targets were met. The earnout targets were not met and in its 2022 annual report, SKY valued RugbyPass at $11m. They haven't disclosed the sale price, however, World Rugby get RugbyPass as part of the rights deal.

silu
13-10-2022, 10:27 AM
Our CEO purchased 21k shares on market.

Almost-confused
13-10-2022, 10:40 AM
And our chair purchased 125k. Just earnt some more respect from me

airedale
13-10-2022, 11:33 AM
Those two have invested more of their own money in SKT than any of the previous board members.

mistaTea
13-10-2022, 11:59 AM
Those two have invested more of their own money in SKT than any of the previous board members.

Yes indeed, it is interesting that SM and PB own small amounts relative to their net worth. Comparing to the previous management and board is a pretty low hurdle. It was scandalous how little equity John Fellet and co had in Sky at the time.

Also that none of the other senior managers or board members are currently 'loading up the truck' on SKT. They are all independently very wealthy people.

DeathByWarriors
13-10-2022, 12:45 PM
Obviously no mythical takeovers in the works then

cyclist
13-10-2022, 01:07 PM
And our chair purchased 125k. Just earnt some more respect from me

Can't help wondering if that is a cynical ploy to help keep himself in a cushy "remote working" side hustle for another three years.

mikelee
13-10-2022, 08:42 PM
Interesting trend developing in the US market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egO7aSej2tA

mistaTea
14-10-2022, 08:45 AM
Interesting trend developing in the US market
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=egO7aSej2tA

Yes, ultimately it all comes back to the bundle in some form.

I used to think that Sky was in the best position to be the streaming bundler of NZ, and maybe they still can be - my confidence has been shaken though.

I look at Amazon Prime, and see them being in a better position to be the streaming aggregator of the future - and on a global scale. They already have deals with other studios as well as Amazon Originals and MGM. Their platform is awesome too. Never ever buffers (NEON buffers almost every time I watch something, often multiple times throughout an episode).

When I look at Sky, I think it is incredible that they are not doing any bundling of streaming services.

I mean, how can they not have a Sky Sport NOW/NEON bundle already?



SSN pay monthly sub is $39.99, however if you pay $399.99 for the year you effectively get it for $33.33
NEON pay monthly sub is $17.99 however if you pay $179.99 for the year you effectively get it for $15/month.


So if you bundled the two services and gave the cheaper pricing as a 'reward' for taking multiple services you could offer a SSN/NEON bundle on a pay monthly basis for $49.99.

Also, why are they not offering UFB as a service to bundle in with their streaming packages?

It is very bizarre decision making by management I think. These kinds of bundles should have been sorted out and made available months ago.

mistaTea
14-10-2022, 09:04 AM
Meanwhile NETFLIX introduce their cheaper ad-supported package in select countries.

https://about.netflix.com/en/news/announcing-basic-with-ads-us

freebee
15-10-2022, 09:05 AM
Interesting article about Spark sport being viable

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/opinion/300711702/how-long-can-spark-sport-remain-a-viable-enterprise#comments

Habits
15-10-2022, 09:37 AM
Yes, ultimately it all comes back to the bundle in some form.

I used to think that Sky was in the best position to be the streaming bundler of NZ, and maybe they still can be - my confidence has been shaken though.

I look at Amazon Prime, and see them being in a better position to be the streaming aggregator of the future - and on a global scale. They already have deals with other studios as well as Amazon Originals and MGM. Their platform is awesome too. Never ever buffers (NEON buffers almost every time I watch something, often multiple times throughout an episode).

When I look at Sky, I think it is incredible that they are not doing any bundling of streaming services.

I mean, how can they not have a Sky Sport NOW/NEON bundle already?



SSN pay monthly sub is $39.99, however if you pay $399.99 for the year you effectively get it for $33.33
NEON pay monthly sub is $17.99 however if you pay $179.99 for the year you effectively get it for $15/month.


So if you bundled the two services and gave the cheaper pricing as a 'reward' for taking multiple services you could offer a SSN/NEON bundle on a pay monthly basis for $49.99.

Also, why are they not offering UFB as a service to bundle in with their streaming packages?

It is very bizarre decision making by management I think. These kinds of bundles should have been sorted out and made available months ago.

That's so right

Lights on and no one home

errornz
15-10-2022, 10:08 AM
Bowman just bought 125k shares at 2.22

sb9
18-10-2022, 10:32 AM
Chair Bowman bought another 50k lot at $2.20 a piece. nice one.

airedale
18-10-2022, 12:13 PM
He didn't get where he is today buying into companies with no future.


Chair Bowman bought another 50k lot at $2.20 a piece. nice one.

biker
18-10-2022, 12:16 PM
Chair Bowman bought another 50k lot at $2.20 a piece. nice one.

I see it as very positive. I followed Rob Fyfe into MHI and Greg Foran in AIR and both those moves have served me well. Was considering selling some SKT but will now hold on.

Jay
18-10-2022, 09:29 PM
To me it seems like someone is trying to keep the price down.
It is not really falling any further, but keeps getting pushed up then back down again in a small range.


Could my imagination of course or everyone waiting until Nov 2 for the vote/confirmation/details of the 'payout'??

Perhaps I should add - trying to keep the price down so they can buy more

xafalcon
24-10-2022, 09:57 AM
What has happened to SKT main supporter? MrT has stopped posting??

Old mate
24-10-2022, 10:05 AM
He sold:t_up:

Joshuatree
24-10-2022, 11:04 AM
What has happened to SKT main supporter? MrT has stopped posting??

"I'm still here,I'm not going away
I'm still here,cause I wanna get laaaaiiiddd" Split Enz :)