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younga
30-10-2006, 03:37 PM
Old Fairfax has had a bit of a rise in the last couple of weeks. Just wondering if something is in the wind - another possible takeover? Does anyone know when the new media laws gets passed.

Flying Goat
30-10-2006, 03:48 PM
quote:Originally posted by younga

Old Fairfax has had a bit of a rise in the last couple of weeks. Just wondering if something is in the wind - another possible takeover? Does anyone know when the new media laws gets passed.


Hi Younga

The big jump ocurred when Rupert Murdoch purchased a >7% stake in the company a week or two ago, off market but at a price significantl above market - unfortunately just about one month after I sold off all my FXJ :( Other than that its just the usual frenzy that goes on in a sector that is being shaken up, check out APN for example, Tony Oreilly has alreay moved on that one... Not sure about the detail on the laws, I thought they were all but passed already [?] but might wrong.

My personal opinion on Fairfax is that it has a lot of strong media brands and the diamond that is Trademe in the stable, but I was NOT very enthusiastic about the debt level so took the conservative route and quit while ahead. In saying that, like any media company the cash flows are SUPER STRONG and I guess that is how they manage to carry a lot of debt in a not-too-dangerous way.

Cheers
FG

BRICKS
18-11-2008, 05:27 PM
FXJ is in an interesting position the share price is at an all time low is a good DIV
payer and if you buy/read "THE DIMMINION" well this is your STOCK..

POSSUM THE CAT
18-11-2008, 06:53 PM
BRICKS is this the imaginery newspaper that you get all your share imformation from? THE DIMMINION"

BRICKS
19-11-2008, 07:21 AM
BRICKS is this the [imaginery] newspaper that you get all your share [imformation] from? THE DIMMINION"

SORRY DOMINION soon to be in BRICKS portfolio so can you afford SOME..

PS. check your spelling to.

bear
19-11-2008, 01:03 PM
Fairfax's problem is its growth areas are very limited to internet related businesses such as Trade Me.

The traditional forms of print media are all struggling with negligible growth, higher costs and a reduction is advertising and margins - the strike also didn't help - all round a marginal business model. For Fairfax this marginal aspect of the business is a huge component and drags on the overall prospects.

Prior to the profit result a few months back i researched extensively and after speaking with a few Aussie mates decided at the time it was not for me. As it pans out the price and market has dropped more and div improved.

If you want a price plodder and just in for the divi it's probably ok but growth is not likely unless things change dramatically

bear

BRICKS
19-11-2008, 01:44 PM
Chairman statement.

With over 300 mastheads [papers] across Australia, New Zealand and the United States, more than 50 major websites, and 15 radio stations, we are the largest content generators in Australasia.

Our content reaches over 10 million people each week in Australia and New Zealand.

Sounds Good to me..

macduffy
19-11-2008, 02:01 PM
I'd try to look past sheer size here.

GM and Ford are two of the biggest carmakers still but I wouldn't be buying their shares!


;)

bear
19-11-2008, 02:17 PM
Chairman statement.

With over 300 mastheads [papers] across Australia, New Zealand and the United States, more than 50 major websites, and 15 radio stations, we are the largest content generators in Australasia.

Our content reaches over 10 million people each week in Australia and New Zealand.

Sounds Good to me..

Look further than what they are and look at sales, advertising revenue, profit, margins, costs, and future prospects - you will find it marginal at best

when advertising revenue increases, and circulations increase it could be a time to buy - but i think there are far better opportunities out there.

Bear

POSSUM THE CAT
19-11-2008, 02:47 PM
Bricks Would not touch with A barge Pole Just try getting into any of there web sites. Also I average 20 emails a day from Fairfax trying to sell me something. When I was in Australia they cancelled my AFR subscription when they had row with local news agent. Could not get another newsagent 1km away to take over delivery or have a prepaid copy held at his premises for me to pick up. Has deteriated ever since David Kirk took over management.

BRICKS
19-11-2008, 02:54 PM
Look further than what they are and look at sales, advertising revenue, profit, margins, costs, and future prospects - you will find it marginal at best

when advertising revenue increases, and circulations increase it could be a time to buy - but i think there are far better opportunities out there.

Bear

More,

>Revenue increased 34% to $2.92 Billion
>EBITDA grew 46%to $818.3 Million
>Net profit after tax $386.9 Million up 47%
>Earnings per share 24.6 cents up 8.15%

Looking good..

POSSUM THE CAT
19-11-2008, 03:57 PM
BRICKS such a good buy Fairfax. I hope you bought more at open this mornig. Such a good investment only down 10% so far today. I will make you a generous offer of $0.001 for every share you hold to put you out of your Misery

BRICKS
19-11-2008, 04:08 PM
BRICKS such a good buy Fairfax. I hope you bought more at open this [mornig]. Such a good investment only down 10% so far today. I will make you a generous offer of $0.001 for every share you hold to put you out of your Misery

YOUR such a nice ass the above did not happen i will just get back to my BIZ..

PS check your spelling..

BRICKS
23-11-2008, 10:28 AM
Talk about catching a falling knife FXJ has been a good example but feel a lot of panic
selling has been going on and by weeks end the price has smoothed out bought at a low price
now to see what will happen. As this is a prime company these price`s wont last long
unless this Meltdown gets out of CONTROL..

POSSUM THE CAT
23-11-2008, 11:57 AM
The B.R.I.C.K.S. Share indicator says it is an urgent sell.

BRICKS
23-11-2008, 06:12 PM
The B.R.I.C.K.S. Share indicator says it is an urgent sell.

YOU repeat your self often yet you say nothing try being FUNNY..

steve fleming
06-04-2009, 09:52 PM
Maybe coming into play??

All the newswires have picked up on this story this afternoon - Citi's analysis on why SEV may be keen on FXJ: (Citi is SEVs broker)



We believe SEV may consider spending some of its cash on FXJ. In this note, we analyse the risks/returns on two hypothetical funding structures, which ultimately result in SEV controlling FXJ.
Why would SEV acquire FXJ? — i) FXJ stock at an all-time low; ii) Fairfax family blocking stake now diluted to ~10%; iii) ultimately the combination of SMG, WAN and FXJ would create ANZ's largest cross-media platform; iv) at least an estimated $65m in immediate cost savings; v) SEV's investment in WAN indicates belief in long-term newspaper value; and vi) because its affordable.
We believe the FXJ share price being at an all-time low and the dilution of the Fairfax family's stake to ~10% post the rights issue have created a "once in a life time" opportunity for Stokes, a long-term believer in newspaper value.
It is affordable — We have run two acquisition scenarios in which SEV pays $1.50 per FXJ share. The key difference in the scenarios is if SEV takes immediate control or is content to wait for private equity exit (i.e. ~6yrs) to assume full control. Assuming the latter, we estimate SEV could end up with control of FXJ with ~ $350m firepower to spare.
How much can SEV pay? — Without debt funding and partnering private equity but assuming SEV/WAN want immediate control, we estimate $1.50 per FXJ share. However, assuming private equity control and SEV not retaining any cash, we estimate $1.85 per
WAN may need shareholder approval to make such a significant acquisition. Any delay here may see a significant premium built into the FXJ share price.
Related party issues — We note the WAN Chairman recommending a transaction of significant benefit to SEV may be considered a conflict of interest.
Regulatory constraints — We note perceived control of both SMG and FXJ/ WAN would require the divestment of FXJ's Radio assets, given the 2/3 cross-media ownership rule (i.e. ACMA would likely consider SEV to have control of TV, Radio and Newspapers in metro licence areas). However, we would view MMG or Supernetwork Radio as potential buyers of FXJ Radio assets.
Competition concerns — Despite any Radio divestment, the ACCC may have concerns over the impact to competition in key markets.
' Is $1.85 per FXJ share too low? — We note the average entry price (even post the rights issue) of existing long-term FXJ holders is likely above $1.85. A SEV bid above this level may rely on additional debt funding, which we believe may be difficult to secure given the current state of credit markets.

Huang Chung
07-04-2009, 08:57 PM
Where have you been Steve? I've missed your commentary.

The change to the media ownership rules didn't create that made flurry of mergers and buyouts that everyone was expecting. Fairfax certainly carries an amount of old world prestiege, and probably would be appealing for someone like Stokes.

Not one for me though.....

macduffy
06-03-2012, 08:29 AM
Almost three years since anyone took an interest in FXJ but just in case there's any doubt that newsprint has lost the battle with the internet, this from yesterday's DomPost Shipping column:

"For yesterday's, today's and tomorrow's shipping arrivals and departures please go to centric.centreport.co.nz/centric/ "

Pumice
06-03-2012, 09:53 AM
I used to work for FFX when I lived in NZ.

This is a sinking ship, any company that can drive its share price from $7.00 to $0.70 while runing the same business model for decades, but expecting a different result is just insane.

The people at the top are just too old and stuck in thier old school model, they couldnt inovate thier way out of a paper bag.

Toulouse - Luzern
06-03-2012, 10:21 AM
Hi Pumice,
The long term chart tells the story
A trading philosophy often quoted on trading sites is to sell your losers and keep your winners
Conversely FXJ have recently sold a third of Trademe, arguably their best business unit (a winner), to invest in the others (losers) in their new strategy ...

drillfix
06-03-2012, 12:07 PM
Good point there TL.

Also is this the company that mining magnet Queen Gina bought into as hobby so she could vent her greedy ways or try to influence her greedy opinion to the world like all these other rich clowns who can afford full page Ad's ???

For this company, it is what I call bad management and failure to see what is in front of them along with a vision of direction and interaction of that direction successfully.

macduffy
06-03-2012, 04:47 PM
Yes, drilly, but as a small investor in Aussie miners I'm prepared to overlook the "greedy" if Gina's money can help give some balance to the anti-mining attitude of the current Aussie govt.

Not that I think that it can make much difference.

:(

Pumice
06-03-2012, 06:02 PM
Hi Pumice,
The long term chart tells the story
A trading philosophy often quoted on trading sites is to sell your losers and keep your winners
Conversely FXJ have recently sold a third of Trademe, arguably their best business unit (a winner), to invest in the others (losers) in their new strategy ...

Couldn’t agree more, The cash that Tradme produced was incredible, it basically funded the entire FFX NZ operations and still had vast sums leftover to send to the parent, we had no idea why they would were selling any of it. It’s practically a natural monopoly.

The newspaper operations are still a good cash generating business, it’s just that its going backwards quickly and monetising the digital side of things is pretty difficult and has a low margin at present. I did a few post acquisition reviews on a few titles, all I can say is the due diligence when buying was pathetic. I came to the conclusion management were grossly incompetent or actually liked giving away shareholders money.
The extent of their commentary was basically “it was the GFC’s fault”

Very very frustrating.

biker
31-08-2012, 03:25 PM
At 42c is this share now incredibly cheap on a 2-3 year horizon or what!!

The short selling will eventually end. then watch it run.

Only IMHO of course. I'm in at these levels.

Stranger_Danger
31-08-2012, 10:39 PM
I must confess to being tempted also, but haven't bought yet. The problem I have is I try and avoid declining industries, bad managements and situations where I myself can't think of a rational plan to improve the business significantly.

That said, I agree with you - definitely an argument they are cheap.

biker
01-09-2012, 08:06 PM
I like your reasoning SD but couldn't resist. :-)

Stranger_Danger
04-09-2012, 07:35 PM
My reasoning clearly didn't convince me, I started buying a few today. Yes, I feel dirty.

soulman
05-09-2012, 08:16 PM
GL SD. I only see problems in this one. Bought a few at 60 (thought GR was going to buy the lot but that might be rejected by the government because she intend to use media to tell about gov conspiracy) and sold in the high 50's once it was confirm Gina R was not allowed to the boards. I, for some reason see 30's and 20's before a recovery.

Corporate
21-10-2012, 03:14 PM
Is anyone still watching FXJ? Amazing decline down to 36c and I can't imagine tomorrow will be green. Still there seem to be a few on HC that think there is still a lot of value in FXJ on a break up basis, especially with Trade Me powering ahead to a market cap of NZ$1.6 billion!

I

Stranger_Danger
21-10-2012, 06:36 PM
Yep, still holding the ones I bought. My feelings of dirtiness have been vindicated so far!

The thing is, we all know FXJ is badly run. We all know Gina is a distraction. We all know the newspapers are toast.

But....

Any way I run the numbers, there is value here. The problem is the sentiment is so truly awful.

In my opinion, there is little doubt that the breakup value is higher than the current price. The problem is getting to that point - ie actually breaking it up.

I still think there is value here, but the timing is hard and the short term catalyst is hard to visualise.

I only put 0.6% of my portfolio into FXJ, expecting to move to 2% relatively quickly. However, I've since resisted buying more, am watching, waiting, and trying to get increasingly sure of my facts and understanding of the accounts.

However, is this one about facts?

snowball
21-10-2012, 07:15 PM
Do not follow but as SD says, must be some value. FXJ has developed a good digital base and transferred some of the rivers of gold online (prop rental, prop sales, motor).
Fairfax Digital
Domain - have really ramped up charges like $200-300 to advertise rental etc
Drive - obviously behind carsales/carpoint but must be up there
MyCareer - don't know
RSVP - don't know
Stayz - well known and assume well used accom site
More - ???
Think were mad selling down trademe when did - was kirk's 2nd finest hour when bought
will look closer when some time but neither want to catch a falling knife
worth some discussion..

biker
21-10-2012, 09:12 PM
I'm buying more at current levels around 37c. Risk/reward ratio healthier by the day. Even Gina must have her finger hovering over the buy button again. Not sure where the bottom is but I was happy to buy at 42c and don't think the bottom is far away. When it turns and heads north, and the market regards it favourably again, it has the potential to rerate quite significantly and quite quickly.
All this IMHO only, of course.

macduffy
23-10-2012, 04:59 PM
Yes, tempting, isn't it!

But apparently FXJ isn't for breaking up.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/fairfax-breakup-not-an-option-hywood-20121023-282ug.html

My biggest concern would be putting a value on what those once-valuable mastheads are really worth. Although they've been re-valued down from $5.2b to $2.5b, leaving net assets at around $2b, any further write-offs would leave FXJ's equity looking decidedly wobbly.

I'm not holding.

percy
23-10-2012, 08:35 PM
Yes, tempting, isn't it!

But apparently FXJ isn't for breaking up.

http://news.smh.com.au/breaking-news-business/fairfax-breakup-not-an-option-hywood-20121023-282ug.html

My biggest concern would be putting a value on what those once-valuable mastheads are really worth. Although they've been re-valued down from $5.2b to $2.5b, leaving net assets at around $2b, any further write-offs would leave FXJ's equity looking decidedly wobbly.

I'm not holding.

Decidely wobbly.Don't think a bank would be too keen to lend against "masthead assets"? So I would think the $2.5b is pie in the sky.

macduffy
24-10-2012, 08:20 AM
Closer examination shows that the $2.5b number is for total Intangibles, of which Mastheads comprise $1.28b, Goodwill $1b and the remainder Radio Licences etc. Doesn't change my "wobbly" view though!

macduffy
24-10-2012, 08:29 AM
The Australian puts things another way.

FXJ's MCap is $890m. Its 51% of TradeMe is valued by the market at $680m. The market is therefore valuing the newspaper and radio assets at$210m!

More food for thought.

STRAT
24-10-2012, 10:04 AM
TradeMe is valued by the market at $680m..Hi Mac.
What would be the PE ratio for that?

macduffy
24-10-2012, 11:08 AM
Hi Mac.
What would be the PE ratio for that?

The company made a net loss of $2.7b after write-downs last year, equivalent to 116.2cps. They calculate "Underlying" earnings at 8.7cps so I guess that gives an historical "Underlying" PE of about 4. Personally, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that!

STRAT
24-10-2012, 11:16 AM
The company made a net loss of $2.7b after write-downs last year, equivalent to 116.2cps. They calculate "Underlying" earnings at 8.7cps so I guess that gives an historical "Underlying" PE of about 4. Personally, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on that!Thats for Trademe?.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/holy_sheep.gif

macduffy
24-10-2012, 11:29 AM
Thats for Trademe?.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/images/smilies/holy_sheep.gif

Sorry, no, I mis-read your post.

:blush:

That's the FXJ rubbery numbers.

biker
25-10-2012, 05:56 AM
Some interesting developments at the ASM. Nice share price reaction. Onwards and upwards!
When FPA market cap was the value of its finance business only it was time to buy. When the FXJ market cap is the value of trade me plus a pittance for its iconic mastheads, radio and other valuable assets its time to buy.

IMHO

STRAT
25-10-2012, 07:05 AM
Sorry, no, I mis-read your post.

:blush:

That's the FXJ rubbery numbers.Thanks Mac.

Jay
13-12-2012, 07:14 PM
Good rise today
Something brewing?? Or window dressing or re-rating

Also I note one of the directors just tripled their holding the other day (30th) by on market buying Av of 0.463 plus big volume on that day.

Also bought a few a couple of days ago - no where near the number the director did though :)

Next resistence of 57.5c

biker
14-12-2012, 10:48 AM
Good rise today
Something brewing?? Or window dressing or re-rating

Also I note one of the directors just tripled their holding the other day (30th) by on market buying Av of 0.463 plus big volume on that day.
Also bought a few a couple of days ago - no where near the number the director did though :)

Next resistence of 57.5c

Time to buy Media! FXJ and APN. Beaten up but with underlying value.

Stranger_Danger
16-12-2012, 10:49 AM
So, selling out of Trade Me. Any thoughts?

The stake in Trade Me was one of the attractions for me, being a good asset which largely offset their debt.

I figured it gave them some "wriggle room" as they sorted through their other issues, and part of my thesis was that - as a whole - FXJ was less risky than many thought.

However, in a low interest rate environment, I was never rooting for them to sell it!

Equally concerning are the comments (reported in the AFR) that they regard Trade Me as a relatively mature business. Relative to what? Newspapers?

If they could even come close to concluding that, then this is a bad case of "not invented here" syndrome.

All up, I'm not convinced of this move and will review my holding in a week or so.

Any other views?

Jay
17-12-2012, 07:32 AM
I have been wondering the same thing SD, was the last run up the "insiders" knowing about the sale, then what will the "masses " think once its public, boost the share price knowng that a windfall is coming, whether that is cash or reducing debt, probably the latter and does that then make them a more robust company
All will be revelaed in the next day or so I imagine.
Price fell back a bit on Friday, but still well above the open on Thursday (relatively speaking)

macduffy
17-12-2012, 08:06 AM
Cherchez la femme?

Is Gina Rinehart's influence starting to show? Perhaps more interested in using FXJ for her own business/political purposes than as an investment in its own right. ie the capital would be better spent on the media assets than tied up in an online auction site.

biker
17-12-2012, 08:46 AM
Opens up lots of new options. All good IMHO

Stranger_Danger
17-12-2012, 09:22 AM
It is the "options" I am afraid of. What dumb move will the board want to make now?

Perhaps a printed "Mining Weekly" with Gina's face on it?

biker
27-02-2013, 08:57 PM
Good volume of over 43 million shares traded today and up almost 5%. Something pending?

soulman
27-02-2013, 09:36 PM
Good volume of over 43 million shares traded today and up almost 5%. Something pending?

Just the ex-div of 1 cents per share tomorrow. FXJ is a prime candidate for a takeover since their net debt has been cut down significantly and that they are now a leaner and more efficient coy. Prospective PE of about 10 at current price of 57 cents. Pretty good value.

biker
20-03-2013, 11:23 AM
I'm buying more at current levels around 37c. Risk/reward ratio healthier by the day. Even Gina must have her finger hovering over the buy button again. Not sure where the bottom is but I was happy to buy at 42c and don't think the bottom is far away. When it turns and heads north, and the market regards it favourably again, it has the potential to rerate quite significantly and quite quickly.
All this IMHO only, of course.

This sick puppy is up 20% in the last month. Some keen buyers out there. Touched 66c this am.

biker
21-02-2014, 08:38 AM
I'm buying more at current levels around 37c. Risk/reward ratio healthier by the day. Even Gina must have her finger hovering over the buy button again. Not sure where the bottom is but I was happy to buy at 42c and don't think the bottom is far away. When it turns and heads north, and the market regards it favourably again, it has the potential to rerate quite significantly and quite quickly.
All this IMHO only, of course.

Well, it rerated yesterday. Touched 92 and closed at 88. Nice to see an iconic business turn itself around. No longer the rivers of gold but a profitable business once again with no debt and 80 mill in cash. Sometimes risk/reward assessments and patience do pay off.