View Full Version : SILVER v USD
Silver has passed the 17.70 level at which EWI had stated previously as being the killer for their bearish case
I must admit I've taken a few off the table at this level -
interest.co.nz linked
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/08/top-10-at-10-us-commercial-property-implosion-us-mint-runs-out-of-gold/
into this press release from the usmint saying they cant keep up with demand.....
http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_release&ID=1070
their (interest.co.nz) implication is sinister but when I read the article it seems they've just switched from one format to another
what do others think?
.
EW has touted their bearish scenario for some time, but the PA looks strong ATM.
I see silver getting at least into the blue boxes overhead. If it can break through those then theres an even higher possibility. Ahead Kumo is bullish on the W.
http://i36.tinypic.com/33ldmyo.gif
interest.co.nz linked
http://www.interest.co.nz/ratesblog/index.php/2009/10/08/top-10-at-10-us-commercial-property-implosion-us-mint-runs-out-of-gold/
into this press release from the usmint saying they cant keep up with demand.....
http://www.usmint.gov/pressroom/index.cfm?action=press_release&ID=1070
their (interest.co.nz) implication is sinister but when I read the article it seems they've just switched from one format to another
what do others think?
Demand is increasing and they are rationalising their product line.
I think they are just switching to the products where the greatest demand (and possibly profit) is.
Sometimes I get lucky going the other way :)
http://i36.tinypic.com/244bfgp.jpg (http://i36.tinypic.com/244bfgp.jpg)
JBmurc
05-11-2009, 10:25 AM
just brought another 64oz package form Moms just before the recent rises paid $28nzd per oz I notice when I was looking just how low her inventory has become I brought all of here Obama's an A-mark 10oz bar Have been keeping an eye on her stock prices etc for a good few months now has the buying pressure of investors starting to strain stocking levels of other bullion sellers I recently also purchased 2 5kg bars 4200ea from ABT refining auckland In talking with the guys their getting less silver to refine than demand so there having to import silver now.
TradeMe prices now 33 and above for physical silver.
And with silver USD rising the whole month and yet NZD/USD falling in the second half there was a good rise in silver in NZ terms during November
, see chart
Gold may be relatively a better performer than silver but silver is still relatively a good performer compared to different asset classes. One must accept a certain volatility.
JBmurc
19-12-2009, 02:59 PM
NIA Declares Silver Best Investment for Next Decade
National Inflation Association
We are less than three weeks away from entering the next decade. The most important thing you need to know entering 2010 is that silver is the single best investment for the next decade. In our opinion, investing into silver is the only sure way to tremendously increase your purchasing power over the next ten years.
Throughout world history, only ten times more silver has been mined than gold. If you go back about 1,000 years ago between the years 1000 and 1250, gold was worth ten times more than silver worldwide. From year 1250 to 1792, the gold to silver ratio slowly increased from 10 to 15 and the Coinage Act of 1792 officially defined a gold to silver ratio of 15. The ratio remained at 15 until forty-two years later when the ratio was increased in 1834 to 16, where it remained until silver was demonetized in 1873.
The gold to silver ratio remained between 10 and 16 for 873 years! It is only over the past 100 years that the gold to silver ratio has averaged 50. History will look back at the artificially high gold to silver ratio of the past century as an anomaly, caused by the dollar bubble and the world being deceived into believing that fiat currencies are real money, when in fact they're all an illusion. Next decade, the fiat currency experiment will end badly in a currency crisis. The wealthiest people will be those who bought silver today and were smart enough to research and pick the best silver mining stocks.
While the vast majority of the gold ever produced remains sitting in vaults, 95% of the silver produced has been consumed by industry for thousands of applications in such tiny amounts that most of it will never be recycled and seen on the market again. Nobody knows the exact above ground supply of silver today, but most likely it is somewhere in the neighborhood of 1 billion ounces. That's a total worldwide market value of only $17.4 billion, when the world has over $7 trillion in foreign currency reserves, mostly in fiat currencies that they will need to diversify out of due to rampant inflation.
Besides the fact that the world has been ignoring the monetary value of silver, silver prices are artificially low due to a large concentrated naked short position. It's not a coincidence that the day silver reached its multi-decade high of over $21 per ounce in March of 2008, was the same day Bear Stearns failed. Bear Stearns was a holder of a massive short position in silver. In our opinion, this was likely a naked short position because there is nobody in the world who owns such a large amount of silver for Bear Stearns to have borrowed.
The reason why we believe the Federal Reserve was so eager to orchestrate a bailout of Bear Stearns, is because Bear Stearns was on the verge of being forced to cover their silver short position. Because the silver market is so small and tightly held, if Bear Stearns was forced to cover their short position, silver prices could've potentially rose to $50 per ounce or higher overnight. The world would've seen how economically unstable our country is and confidence in the U.S. dollar would've rapidly deteriorated.
JP Morgan still holds the silver short position they inherited from Bear Stearns. The concentrated naked short position in silver today is the largest short position in the history of all commodities, as a percentage of its market size. Eventually, JP Morgan will have to cover this short position or it could jeopardize their existence.
The best evidence that the short position in silver is naked and not backed by real silver, is the differential between what silver trades for on the Comex and what real people are willing to pay for physical silver on eBay. Every hour on eBay, there are dozens of one ounce silver coins selling for approximately $25. That's about a 43% premium over the current spot price of silver. With so much demand for physical silver, we doubt the silver shorts in the paper market will be able to manipulate prices downward for much longer. A major short squeeze could be right around the corner and silver could take off in a way that shocks even those who are most bullish.
We will soon be releasing our unbiased report reviewing all of the major online sellers of gold and silver bullion. If you would like your friends and family to receive our special upcoming report, please tell them about NIA and have them subscribe for free
JBmurc
20-12-2009, 11:12 AM
In 1999, investors started buying 90% "junk" USA silver coinage dated 1964 or earlier, to prepare for Y2K, in case the banks crashed from computer failure, or bank runs. Prices for on those silver coins soared from about 5% over spot, to 50% over spot of $5/oz., in just a few months. We got a bit scared at that, and held on.
My grandmother had some bonds. My father next suggested that we try to convince her. So, I wrote up a small report about what I learned. I detailed that silver mine supply was about 500 million ounces, recycling was about 200 million more ounces, and government selling was about another 50 million ounces. Recycling included "investor selling".
Demand consumed it all, all 750 million ounces produced or recycled each year. Demand consisted of about 45% industrial demand, mostly in electronics, 25% jewelry & flatware demand, and 25% photography demand, and about 5% coin/medallion production.
The shocker was the relative numbers. At $5/oz., the size of the annual silver market was a tiny $3.7 billion, world wide.
In monetary terms, that was nothing. The money in US banks stood at $4 trillion, 1000 times as large.
She seemed a bit convinced, but where would she get silver, and where would she put it? She was too old to guard it, she was nearly 80. Sigh.
Very little has changed in 10 years.
Photography demand has dropped by about 10%, and investor demand has increased to about 10%, effectively replacing it, creating no new significant investment buying pressure.
Silver Eagle production has increased from 10 million coins to 20 million coins per year. In a 600 million oz. annual mining market, it's almost an insignificant change, this increase in coinage of 100%.
Silver has gone from $5 to $17.
M3, money in the banks, has gone from about $4 trillion to about $15 trillion.
The increase has been at about the same rates. Silver is just keeping pace with the inflation.
No significant money has yet flowed into silver, which is the event that will cause silver to vastly outpace in value all other investments or real property.
Popular press that writes about how much silver the ETF's "have obtained", have no clue about how much the ETF's have, since their silver is not able to be audited.
JP Morgan is the custodian of the silver for SLV.
JP Morgan has the largest short position in silver at the COMEX.
SLV's silver cannot be audited, as JP Morgan has the right to have sub custodians and sub sub custodians hold silver for the SLV. READ THE PROSPECTUS!
This means they can back up the SLV with long positions in futures, since "someone else" has the silver. So, SLV is backed by futures, and futures can now be backed by SLV.
It's now fraud backing fraud. But business as usual for the banks!
JP Morgan has $80 trillion in derivatives exposure, while the next largest banks have only $35 trillion, and the 4th largest has only $4 trillion.
What has changed significantly is that the fraud of "holding silver for investors", silver that was never purchased, and does not exist, has vastly increased.
Creating "paper silver" is similar to inflation. The effects of rising prices for REAL silver are not seen right away, there is a delay. The delay will one day manifest itself in silver rising much faster than it did in 1980.
The 1980 peak saw silver rise to $50/oz.
You can adjust for inflation in many ways.
1. If you go by government CPI numbers, the former peak would be about 2.5 times higher, or $125/oz.
2. If you go by the increase in M3, the increase in the paper money creation, which is the real inflation, then the increase is about 8 times higher, from about $1.8 trillion to about $15 trillion, so silver's "inflation adjusted" high would be $400/oz.
Silver moved up $10/day back then. We could see silver thus move up by $80 day sometime in the future, when things "blow up" in the financial world, or even more per day.
3. The third kind of inflation is the derivatives. There are a notional $1000 trillion of derivatives, mostly interest rate derivatives, or bets on the change in interest rates. People don't really buy very much gold in this era, they mostly place bets on the way they think interest rates will go, using highly leveraged bets. Mostly interest rates are flat. I suspect most of the bets thus fail. You need a change in rates for people's bets to pay off.
The comparative numbers are that the world's annual mine production of gold is about 2400 tonnes, or about 75 million oz., worth about $85 billion.
All the gold in all the world, ever mined in all of human history, stands at about 155,000 tonnes, or about 5 billion ounces, worth about $5.5 trillion.
The $1000 trillion of notional value of mostly "interest rate" derivatives simply dwarfs the gold market.
I write that more for future students of history than for people today. Most fools alive now simply don't get it. Future generations would simply not believe the stupidity of this generation, unless I wrote it down.
4. The fourth kind of inflation is a narrow subset of derivatives, including all the different kinds of "paper silver". This would include futures, options, ETF's, silver pools, silver certificates from Perth or Canadian Banks, and "over the counter" silver obligations.
For ten years, I was told that the "over the counter" silver obligations were unknowable, but probably the biggest kind of fraud.
Last year, I finally got a hold of some data on the over the counter silver derivatives.
The BIS report on commodity derivatives.
http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt21c22a.pdf
It shows there is $203 billion in "other precious metal" notional derivatives owed by all the world's banks.
That's mostly $203 billion of silver fraud, because the silver market is a $10 billion market, with investors only buying $1.7 billion per year!
We ought to know who the BIS is. The BIS is the Bank for International Settlements.
http://www.bis.org/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bank_for_International_Settlements
"The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is an international organization of central banks which "fosters international monetary and financial cooperation and serves as a bank for central banks." It is not accountable to any national government.
The latest report shows an increase in the "notional amounts outstanding" in the "other precious metals" category, from $96 billion in Dec. 2008 to $203 billion in June 2009. They only report twice a year.
Please note, the entire annual silver mine production is about 600 million ounces, at $17/oz., is $10.2 billion.
Thus, the banks owe 20 times more "other precious metals" than silver is produced per year.
Does the "other precious metals" category include platinum and palladium? Sure. But those markets are as small, if not smaller, than silver!
The world produces about 8 million ounces of each.
Platinum at $1428/oz. x 8 million is an $11.4 billion market.
Palladium at $365/oz. x 8 million is a $2.9 billion annual market.
Few people try to accumulate platinum and palladium, it's nearly zero, less than 5% of those markets physically, nearly no buyers of those metals in our coin shops, and I suspect even fewer derivatives to match. Thus, nearly all of the "other precious metals" derivatives are silver.
I hope I didn't lose you, but here's more comparative numbers.
99.5% of silver investors are being defrauded by paper silver!!!
BIS "other precious metals": $203 billion.
COMEX futures silver contracts, 157,310 x 5000 oz. x $17: $13.3 billion.
Perth Mint gold and silver certificates: $2 billion
Annual investor demand for silver: 100 million oz. x $17: $1.7 billion
Thus, 99.5% of all silver investors, or more, do not have the silver they think they have.
If your silver is a number on a statement or on a piece of paper, I can tell you, it probably does not exist. The math shows it's probably impossible for it to exist.
It would have been impossible for the sellers of paper silver to have gone into the tiny $3 billion to $10 billion annual silver market to buy $200 billion of silver!
The BIS figures show they should have bought $100 billion of silver in the last year! FROM WHERE?!
If you have paper silver, you have to take delivery, or cash out, and buy real silver from a real seller of real silver.
Please tell me your story, on why you bought silver. When? What led you to it? Over how long?
Yes. I'm biased. I'm a bullion dealer. But I've been writing on silver for 10 years, and I've only started dealing last year.
I became one, in part, because too many of my readers were being defrauded, and telling me about the fraud.
Consider this: Why am I one of the most popular silver advocates in the world, when I'm just a tiny little player? There is $5 trillion of gold out there in much wealthier hands than mine. They are not telling you to buy gold. Why not? Maybe because they are trying to keep it a secret, because they want to buy more for themselves! Maybe because they have no intention of selling at these prices.
But gold and silver are mined each year. Miners have huge expenses, they MUST sell, and that accounts for most of new supply, thus, the focus on it for supply/demand considerations.
In other words, bullion holders, 99.999% of them anyway, are not telling you to buy gold, and they are not selling!
My readers tell me it can be almost IMPOSSIBLE to get silver out of the large companies perpetrating the silver fraud and interest rate fraud.
Let's remember, their silver is unauditable.
Gold and silver are as good as they ever were.
airedale
21-12-2009, 09:32 AM
Hi JB, CXC trades on the ASX, are there any other silver stocks that you follow? Compliments of the season.:)
JBmurc
21-12-2009, 12:28 PM
Hi JB, CXC trades on the ASX, are there any other silver stocks that you follow? Compliments of the season.:)
I hold TRY which will be producing a bit of silver soon
CCU-explorer(did hold awhile ago)
SVL-silver lake I don't know if this is the right ticker code but they are silver explorer
Personal my fav silver investment is .999 silver bullion in my safe
airedale
22-12-2009, 10:36 AM
Thanks, JB, will put them on my watch list.
I hold TRY which will be producing a bit of silver soon
CCU-explorer(did hold awhile ago)
SVL-silver lake I don't know if this is the right ticker code but they are silver explorer
Personal my fav silver investment is .999 silver bullion in my safe
JB, hypothetically how would you go about selling your bullion?
I have 32kg of .999 which I have held for a number of years and am now looking to sell to raise the cash for another purpose.
NZ mint would probably offer me too low below market price to be worthwhile
If anyone has any ideas I am interested. Looking to sell the lot.
JBmurc
22-12-2009, 02:35 PM
JB, hypothetically how would you go about selling your bullion?
I have 32kg of .999 which I have held for a number of years and am now looking to sell to raise the cash for another purpose.
NZ mint would probably offer me too low below market price to be worthwhile
If anyone has any ideas I am interested. Looking to sell the lot.
well if I was I'd use trademe
- personal i wouldn't sell- ever year the world uses more silver than it producers 80%+ silver traded today is paper silver with 0 real silver backing
What ever your going use the money you get paid for the precious metal will look so cheap 5yrs from now ,yet if you take on extra dept the inflation(esp hyper-inflation)will make the funds borrow costs seem minimal
trademe is NZ's largest fair market for silver bullion
- 1oz have been selling for between $32-$40oz ferns-eagles
- 1kg $950-$1100
trademe --
Success fees
Up to $150 6.9% of sale price (50c minimum)
$150 - $1500 $10.35 + 4.5% of sale price over $150
Over $1500 $71.10 + 1.9% of sale price over $1500
(max fee = $149)
selling as one big lot would be the cheapest
I personal would love to buy it of ya but am planning to build early next year so will be only adding small amounts to my holding.
If you could only wait till later next yr I prob would buy the lot $1,000 a kg
well if I was I'd use trademe
- personal i wouldn't sell- ever year the world uses more silver than it producers 80%+ silver traded today is paper silver with 0 real silver backing
What ever your going use the money you get paid for the precious metal will look so cheap 5yrs from now ,yet if you take on extra dept the inflation(esp hyper-inflation)will make the funds borrow costs seem minimal
trademe is NZ's largest fair market for silver bullion
- 1oz have been selling for between $32-$40oz ferns-eagles
- 1kg $950-$1100
trademe --
Success fees
Up to $150 6.9% of sale price (50c minimum)
$150 - $1500 $10.35 + 4.5% of sale price over $150
Over $1500 $71.10 + 1.9% of sale price over $1500
(max fee = $149)
selling as one big lot would be the cheapest
I personal would love to buy it of ya but am planning to build early next year so will be only adding small amounts to my holding.
If you could only wait till later next yr I prob would buy the lot $1,000 a kg
I could probably wait and see if you are keen later next year. Selling it in one lot is appealing for simplicity's sake. I'm not in a big rush, but i've been thinking about selling it for the past 6 months.
I know it has a good story, thats why I got in, but i am looking at some other options for the moment.
Cheers
Lego_Man
22-12-2009, 07:30 PM
I could probably wait and see if you are keen later next year. Selling it in one lot is appealing for simplicity's sake. I'm not in a big rush, but i've been thinking about selling it for the past 6 months.
I know it has a good story, thats why I got in, but i am looking at some other options for the moment.
Cheers
Hey Ish, cant take anywhere near the lot off your hands but would be interested to see what you have. PM what you've got if you're interested.
JBmurc
04-01-2010, 04:54 PM
good deals at moms atm for you silverbugs who are looking at buying some 1oz coins January Special: Free shipping on all 'Volume Sales' as freight is usually at least $1ea oz to NZ
100 Ounces Lydian Lion 1 oz. Silver =$2750 NZD or $27.50oz they are current selling on trademe for $33oz+
good deals at moms atm for you silverbugs who are looking at buying some 1oz coins January Special: Free shipping on all 'Volume Sales' as freight is usually at least $1ea oz to NZ
100 Ounces Lydian Lion 1 oz. Silver =$2750 NZD or $27.50oz they are current selling on trademe for $33oz+
Thanks for the info JB. How much is shipping usually from Moms?
I'll be interested again towards $15 ish
http://i48.tinypic.com/30naixu.gif
JBmurc
04-01-2010, 07:15 PM
well on a volume sale of 100x 1oz coins -economy freight $106 USD international freight
that's why is such a bargain atm
As stated above, I have 32.4 kg of silver to sell. (20 x 1kg, and 4*3.11kg)
Mostly Johnson Matthey minted.
If anyone is keen PM me.
Looking to sell in the next 6 months, and for simplicity would prefer to sell in one lot, or say half of it to one buyer.
Price I would be looking for is a slight discount to trade me bulk rates, so a good deal for anyone looking to get a sizeable holding.
I bought a little more physical silver today.... spot price in NZD has come down a bit (now only about $21) and there was a small bargain on TradeMe , so in accordance with my long term slow accumulation strategy I acted.
JBmurc
11-02-2010, 08:49 PM
same closing in on a 50 kilo bullion holding paid 28oz nzd for last couple kg
.
Lets see how it goes against the Kumo and broken TL
http://i49.tinypic.com/30jqira.gif
applying butterfly theory .....
now theres a bullish butterfly (purple triangles) with resistance just above 17 (yellow rectangle) that if broken would theoretically trigger a long trade. This area (17 - 17.50 ish) matches the equivalent black rectangle area of the bearish butterfly (green).
JBmurc
01-03-2010, 10:04 AM
However the evolving global currency crisis ultimately manifests itself, either total deflation and a debt-liquidating depression or a hyperinflationary blow-off, David Morgan of The Morgan Report says "There's none better than gold—and silver is probably just as good—if you're worried about a crisis hedge." In the interim, David tells us in this exclusive Gold Report interview, the time might be right to build cash and watch the markets. He likes the old adage: when in doubt, stay out. But he also likes finding opportunities in undervalued and overlooked resource equities for speculative investments.
The Gold Report: Your investment strategy has long involved finding undervalued or overlooked opportunities. What metals does that umbrella cover these days?
David Morgan: The byline of The Morgan Report is "Money, Metals and Mining" and I approach the market in that fashion and in that order. Mining—that's where you get the greatest leverage. And metals—are the best asset class, particularly the precious metals, during these uncertain times. From the metals-only perspective, I'm a top-down analyst. We determine supply-demand fundamentals, what would cause a price to be higher or lower or stagnant. With the precious metals, we look at some timing cues as well. And then we look for resource opportunities, not just in the precious metals or base metals, but throughout the sector, and we do a fair amount of work in the REE, the rare earth elements side. But overall we look for undervalued situations.
TGR: What looks undervalued these days?
DM: Nickel is probably one that's pretty undervalued, although it looks to be breaking out now. If you study the London Metals Exchange (LME), you'll find pretty good inventory buildup in some of the base metals at this time—high enough to cause some concern on a short- or intermediate-term basis. Unlike wheat, corn, oats, cocoa or sugar, metals don't deteriorate. From an economic point of view, if you can buy any of the metals under or near the cost of production and store them, you'll make money in the long run. You might have to wait longer than you think because markets "can be irrational longer than you can stay solvent." But all that aside, I do see opportunities. If you want me to pick one, I'll pick nickel.
TGR: All the metals or nickel?
DM: All the metals should go higher relative to the U.S. dollar, but I think 2010 will be very back-and-forth. Stress levels are high on both sides—the inflationary pressures for governments trying to print their way out of this mess and the deflationary side of the equation because so many countries are on the edge of default.
TGR: What key economic factors are you watching to decide which side of the fence you'll go to?
DM: The velocity of money. Enough money has been printed to have a hyperinflation in milliseconds, so obviously it's not a function of the size of the money supply. It's a function of the velocity of money or how quickly some of it—we don't know how much—starts moving out of a currency. We've already seen it, with India moving into 200 tons of gold, for example. That's very small relative to the amount of debt out there, but still it's a very strong signal to the markets about the fact that India values gold over U.S. dollars at this time, and believe me, they are not the only nation that thinks this way.
We could come to a situation of the straw that breaks the camel's back, some subtle tipping point that the market may not recognize initially. When the Creditanstalt bank went bankrupt, nobody said, "Oh, my goodness, that's going to take us down and cause a global depression—yet most of us who study such things can point to that as a contributing factor to the Great Depression in the '30s.
You have to think of it in broader terms than inflation or deflation: are we in the grips of a currency crisis? That's when you don't trust the underlying currency. Judging from what we see in the mainstream press, it's pretty evident that other nations are questioning their trust of the U.S. dollar.
In economic situations such as this, history shows that there's a price to be paid by everyone. It's an issue of productive capacity. True wealth isn't money. Real money is a store of value component. To produce wealth, you have to produce something of value to the marketplace. The productive capacity of the United States has been in decline since 1974. The productive capacity of China has increased substantially from that timeframe to the present day. Today the problem is that the means of exchange is not trusted (longer term) on part of the producer—China in this example. That portends some very serious issues ahead.
TGR: Going back to the undervalued or overlooked resources, in this environment where we don't know whether to expect inflation or deflation, what sorts of investment opportunities are presenting themselves?
DM: As far as I'm concerned, there's none better than gold if you're worried about a crisis hedge however it unravels eventually, either total deflation—a debt-liquidating depression or a hyperinflationary blow-off. Silver has done best in periods of high inflation.
People really get hung up on the inflation-deflation debate, but let's face it, in both cases there are so many similarities. High unemployment, declining productive capacity, distrust of government, more government interference, general malaise throughout the economy—a great deal of uncertainty.
I would ask anyone who's worried about this debate to put a silver coin or a gold coin in their right hand and their currency of choice in the left hand and ask themselves, which one has retained purchasing power over time? If you're going to have savings, do you want the kind that has stood the test of time for thousands of years? Or the type of savings that has always failed throughout recorded history? If you're not sure, divide it in half. Keep 50% of your savings in your currency of choice and the other 50% in the precious metals.
TGR: If people have cash ready to invest in equities or precious metals, would you say put all of your cash into precious metals now, and then liquidate as you want to invest in various equities? Or keep cash on hand just for equity opportunities?
DM: You can buy the precious metals themselves at almost any time. That's a different asset class than the mining equities. The mining equities generally follow the stock market to a certain point. Then comes a point—which we haven't reached yet—when the mining equities start to take on a life of their own. In other words, you'll see gold and silver mining equities generally going opposite the general stock market. At this time I think mining equities will follow the stock market down. A week or so ago I posted an article on my website about Harry Dent seeing the stock market debacle starting at the end of February. I would not be real quick to jump into the mining equities right now. But if you're not invested in the physical metal itself, I would definitely buy some. I prefer a dollar-cost-averaging approach to accumulating the precious metals.
And as far as selling the metal to buy equities goes, I would never do that. I'd do the opposite. If I have a big gain on a mining equity—say I made a three, four, five, 10-bagger—I usually turn that in precious metals. I'd rather turn paper into gold than gold into paper.
TGR: You were talking about currency of choice and in this case, gold. A lot of gold investors expect that at some point silver will stop trading as an industrial metal and start trading as a precious metal. A lot of people use the gold-silver ratio as an indicator of how rapidly silver can move up. Do you believe in that ratio and what it portends for silver?
DM: There is a lot made of the silver-gold ratio. Silver probably will reach what I call the classic, or the monetary ratio, which is 16:1. It could even get down to the natural ratio, which at this time is about 10:1, but I don't see it getting to any better ratio than that. Of course, this implies that silver is undervalued relative to gold.
When will silver take on this monetary aspect alone? That's part of what I'm writing for the March issue of The Morgan Report. It's basically looking at the silver market over the next 10 years. We have a 10-year bull market behind us and in my view we have several more years to go.
What happens is at the end of these great bull markets is you get into the euphoric or manic stage and this happens in almost all markets. You've seen it in the technology sector, when people were buying dot-com stocks that had no business plan and no equity, just an idea.
TGR: It was the new economy.
DM: Yes. So that will take place. I think we'll see the biggest run up of all time in gold and silver, especially the equities, a euphoric state of panic buying driven by fear and greed. I'll probably face a lynch mob me when I say "sell," because no one will want to trade physical metal for paper currency and I don't blame them. Anticipating this, I've already planned some techniques to use to preserve our physical metal and still allow us to sell to a strong market, but those are days ahead.
When the panic hits, gold probably will go up to $2,000 and beyond—the average person will wake up thinking, "Oh, I've got to get gold equities; I listened to my friends and I thought they were idiots and now I see the light." Many will turn to silver because it'll still affordable relative to gold.
Significant money will move in to the metals. And because silver is cheaper than gold, a lot of it will go silver, which will cause the ratio to spike relative to gold. You'll see the ratio drop from 60:1 to 50:1 to 40:1 to 35:1 to 20:1, maybe to 16:1 or 10:1 because there'll be more money, relatively speaking, moving into silver than in the past. And since silver is such a small market, any small increase in buying power will send the price far higher.
TGR: The way you explain this, these ratios are really only short term.
DM: It depends on where you start the line. One of my earliest lectures, which I still do from time to time, is about the gold-silver ratio. If you go from the 12th century, it's a 12:1 ratio, which was exactly the natural ratio at that time. In other words, 12 ounces of silver in the ground for every ounce of gold, and that's basically how it was mined up to about the 17th century.
So the market figured out that 12:1 ratio, and it held up for centuries. We got to the monetary ratio when England was having a problem similar to what the world economy is having today, and during the turmoil of a currency crisis Sir Isaac Newton told the Bank of England to go on a gold standard and they did. He said the correct silver to gold ratio in the new monetary regime was 15.5:1—where the market was at that point. This ratio, roughly 16:1, remained static for hundreds of years.
So does it matter? Yes and no. Once silver was demonetized and deemed an industrial metal, there was no longer a tie to silver as money per se and so it was revalued. The important point is if silver is undervalued or not and if you think it is then obviously it represents opportunity.
TGR: The interesting thing when you bring up the histories of ratios is that silver gets consumed and gold doesn't. It's back to the silver as an industrial metal. Silver is also the by-product of mining for other base metals. You're projecting the economies are not growing over the short term. If silver is a by-product of base metals, should silver production decrease and would that have an impact on silver prices?
DM: Yes, it should decrease and it could affect prices short term. The industrial demand on silver was roughly 35% of the total market in 2000. In 2010, industrial demand now is 54% of the market. The industrial demand for silver is not only the largest demand, but it's the fastest-growing. But that's really not totally true because since 2006 you've had a huge increase of commercial buying of silver because its investment demand has increased extremely quickly. Since the advent of the SLV, the silver ETF, and other silver ETFs, there's been a huge amount of money, relatively speaking, moving into the silver market as investment!
So you've got the industrial side. Regardless of mining activity being up or down, industrial demand is always off-taking silver and a lot of that off-take never comes back into the market. Recycling is significant, but it's not total. In some cases, it gets used and it's gone.
So that is an underlying eating away at the above-ground stockpile. When you throw an increased investment demand on top of that, especially in a small market, you can see an explosive situation approaching. Everybody wants to know when it will take place. I've said that the earliest it would take off in that manner is probably 2012 and I may be wrong. Markets do what markets do, but such explosive moves go in phases and we're still somewhat in the skeptical phase.
For example, some of the people who bought gold above $1,000 are skeptical right now. They're not sure it's going to go to $1,200 ever again. I believe it will go far higher, but the longer it wallows between $1,200 and $1,000, the more likely these people are to listen to their friends, neighbors and brokers and say, "Gee, you know, gold isn't a good investment. I've held it for a year and it's gone nowhere. Put me back in the Dow or something." Even worse, if we do break the $1,000 level, which I doubt but it could happen, they'll be very unsure and probably will sell back into the market, causing it to depress in price further for a short time.
TGR: How do you see nickel, which you brought up early on, play out in scenarios you've been talking about?
DM: I believe all commodities are in longer-term trend upward. If you dig into the archives, I made a good call in the early 2000s on the Financial Sense Newshour with Jim Puplava. I said the new era is here. We're going from an era of having things we want to an era of having things that we need. Of course, we need food and shelter and raw materials. Those needs will continue. So do we need nickel in the future? You bet. It's used primarily in stainless steel. If you're going to build any food processing plant—and there are always more mouths to feed—you'll use a great deal of stainless steel. And that's not the only application.
You can play nickel, other metals or any commodity or stock short term if you wish, but I like to take the major trend and stick with it because that's where you could make substantial money. Certainly some traders can do extremely well. But really successful traders are very rare and most people don't have nearly enough discipline, because you have to be willing to take loss after loss after loss after loss. Even if they are small losses, psychologically that's very difficult. Most people are not suited for it. They can't handle the stress that comes with a trading strategy.
TGR: Some people suggest the equities because there's substantially more leverage, thus more upside than with the metals themselves. What's your feeling about equities at this time and are there any equities you're looking at that represent good opportunity?
DM: We put out something in the rare earth elements (REE) area recently and it's a speculation, so it falls in the class of fun money or money you can afford to lose. It's a very hot sector right now. I believe it's fairly safe to invest in, as safe as you can be in a speculation. But overall, right now I think it's a good time to build cash. The next couple of months bear watching. I like the old adage: when in doubt, stay out. There's nothing wrong with staying out of this market right now and if the market tells us something we have techniques for getting in quickly.
TGR: But when you buy, you like the undervalued stocks.
DM: We always like to buy bargains. I like to invest for value. If I find something worth $10 and can buy it on sale for $5, that's when I'm more interested in making the purchase. I have people who bought Silver Standard Resources Inc. (NASDAQ:SSRI) at under $1 and now it's at $17. They're probably not happy if they didn't sell some at $40, although some have. But how can you be unhappy about a 17-bagger over 10 years? On the other hand, if you just came into this sector and bought it at $20 or so a few weeks ago, you're going to be unhappy now that it's sitting at $17.
My timing is more of an intermediate-term basis. I cannot day trade; it just doesn't interest me. But longer term, yes, timing can definitely help you, but you have to really know what you're doing and no one can get it right all the time. So for the average investor a dollar-cost-averaging approach makes the most sense. Technical analysis is a very useful tool, but you can't rely on it 100% and I'll give you a quick example. There is no charting service or no human being that can make a 100% accurate case because you can't chart, for example, where a 9/11 event is going to take place.
My approach is to hold about 75% of the total precious metals stocks through thick and thin. And the other 25% can be traded in and out of the market
TGR: You suggested that you like to find $10 stocks that are on sale for $5. Do you have any companies that fit those criteria now that you're watching?
DM: Not at this time, at least not at that big a discount, but I just returned from Phoenix where I gave a lecture on the mining cycle. If you look at Minefinders Corporation (TSX:MFL, NYSE.A:MFN) and you look at the mining cycle, we bought that stock at around $1 and sold it at $13 right at the top. That's a classic. It's a good value at this point in time and I believe as things progress, it's undervalued now. Based on my lecture people will have a pretty good idea where this company could go over the next several years. Buying MAG Silver Corp. (TSX:MAG; NYSE:MVG) is discounted by the market right now, but that one could be discounted more.
TGR: What makes these two companies undervalued at this time?
DM: It's their internal rate of return. It's the growth rate of their assets, which are precious metals. People get hung up on the dollar price of the metals. As an example, if you started off in 2000 with 10 ounces of gold and you ended up in 2010 with 50 ounces of gold, by definition you're wealthier because you own more gold. The price variation is very significant to most people, but in the big scheme of things, it is not that important because gold is wealth and you have more of it. In other words your real wealth has increased regardless on a temporary paper price.
It's the same with a mining company. If it has more wealth in the ground or is producing more wealth above ground, that's what you need to focus on. Markets are very psychological and emotional, so what you want to focus upon is the increase of book value per share and you want to see how the company's growing internally. If the market price doesn't reflect the increase in book value on an annual basis—that would be an undervalued situation.
Let me say that I don't want anyone to jump in to either of these companies just because I think they're undervalued. I believe they are, but it doesn't mean that they can't be more undervalued. Still, if you like those, you can take a beginning position. If you want to own a lot of one of those companies (as an example) and don't do technical work or subscribe to a newsletter or whatever, just take a long-term view and dollar-cost-average your purchases. If you have a disciplined rational approach and know it's undervalued now and you buy it, you want it to go lower because you know you're buying value. Instead of being upset about your loss when it goes lower, you say, "Fantastic! I'm not buying that $10 stock for $5. Now I'm able to buy it for $4." And then next month comes along and you can get it for $3. You are ecstatic because you know what you're doing. The problem is some people use this technique in stocks that have no real value, that is a huge mistake and too common by the way.
TGR: Good words to the wise. Are there any other undervalued situations that you can share with us?
DM: Again, I want to keep my integrity and value to my members but longer term, Great Panther Silver Limited (TSX:GPR) is a very strong company with a good return rate. First Majestic Silver Corp. (TSX:FR; OTCQX:FRMSF) is a big growth story. SilverCrest Mines Inc. (TSX.V:SVL) is very near production. Fortuna Silver Mines Inc. (TSX.V:FVI) is another company with good assets in the ground and probably not a very well-known story because they're not very promotional.
So Fortuna, Great Panther, First Majestic, SilverCrest, MAG, Minefinders, and then one that I've come back to. I was first on the Silvermex Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:SMR) story. Silvermex is good. We got in probably at the initiation of the company and then the credit crisis hit and we basically were stopped out of the stock. They're moving toward production. It's probably a higher risk than, say, some of these other companies that are producing metal or will be shortly. I wouldn't consider it particularly undervalued at this point, because we haven't had a long enough history on the company as an up-and-coming producer. And again, all these are speculations in my view, although almost all of them actually mine metal.
TGR: Very good. David, I really appreciate your time. Once again, you've been a wealth of knowledge and insight.
macduffy
05-03-2010, 08:13 AM
RBC Capital Markets report that silver stock prices lag the PoS.
I think we knew that!
CXC get a mention. I hold.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/silver-strides-another-golden-thread/story-e6frg9ex-1225836958162
dumbass
05-03-2010, 10:20 PM
classical head and shoulders reversal with a test of neck line , worth a watch for a short ?
Hi All
My thoughts at the moment are that there could be some hesitation at the old gap (khaki box), and that would be a good place to look for any reversal pattern. Be aware that Kumo is thin at that point but there may just be a retrace to test the lower Kumo base, then perhaps another move north. I personally like silver for the long term.
http://i46.tinypic.com/2cr5276.gif
JBmurc
07-03-2010, 09:42 PM
Hey Ish an others with real hard currency if anyone has any bullion they would like to trade for NZD paper- larger the lots the better
http://www.sella.co.nz/search/silver+bullion/
Try this site.
JBmurc
07-03-2010, 10:51 PM
yeah thanks mate looking at getting hold of over 1000kg of silver bullion yes I know lots still me an mates feel its time to buy up large .......also moving my portfilo towards gold silver miners in the market as well
JBmurc
22-03-2010, 03:40 PM
well worth a read-
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson022810.html
shasta
22-03-2010, 04:25 PM
well worth a read-
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_08/nielson022810.html
Cheers for posting that, have been researching into gold producers/near term producers that also have silver credits
Whistleblower Exposes JP Morgan's Silver Manipulation Scheme
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=360372&t=01008419310939784033
;)perhaps Andrew McQuire is just a really good trader ???
He says "The signals I identified ahead of the intended short selling event were clear.
The "live" action I sent you 41 minutes after the trigger event predicting the next imminent move also played out within minutes and exactly as I outlined.
Surely you must at least be somewhat mystified that a market move could be forecast with such accuracy if it was free trading."
But by the same token perhaps you arco could be accused of manipulating the market with your purple traces!
;)perhaps Andrew McQuire is just a really good trader ???
He says "The signals I identified ahead of the intended short selling event were clear.
The "live" action I sent you 41 minutes after the trigger event predicting the next imminent move also played out within minutes and exactly as I outlined.
Surely you must at least be somewhat mystified that a market move could be forecast with such accuracy if it was free trading."
But by the same token perhaps you arco could be accused of manipulating the market with your purple traces!
Quite true Pete, the whole world is now following the Purple Trace and its all my fault for manipulating the market with a single pen stroke ;)
.
The story makes it to the Business Spectator today
http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/Markets-in-question-pd20100329-3YRKP?OpenDocument&src=kgb
and even though he writes about it Gottliebsen says :
I want to emphasise that I am not endorsing those allegations and it is almost certain that JP Morgan Chase will be able explain its actions and show that they had nothing to do with market manipulation.
JBmurc
29-03-2010, 08:36 PM
Sounds like a good tui board
JP Morgan Chase had nothing to do with silver short manipulation -------Yeah right
JBmurc
05-04-2010, 08:38 PM
April 1, 2010 – Everything is lining up for silver, which looks ready to soar. The catalyst to launch silver like a rocket may very well turn out to be last week’s CFTC hearing, which revealed the huge naked short position in the precious metal markets.
In my annual forecast for 2010, I said: “We need to start thinking about silver hurdling above $50. If it doesn’t happen in 2010, this important event – which is unimaginable to many – will I expect happen in 2011.” The following chart suggests that my forecast is still on target.
Silver has formed a huge accumulation pattern. One could even make the case that it is a reverse ‘head & shoulders’ pattern, with two shoulders that are shallow compared to its deep head. The right shoulder is now being completed, and the pattern will manifest its bullish significance when silver climbs above the neckline around $20.
Looking at it from a pure technical point of view, this pattern can forecast silver’s price target. The difference from the neckline to the bottom of the head is about $13.50. When this difference is added to the neckline, the near-term objective on the breakout is $33.50. In other words, the upside breakout from this pattern could be breathtaking.
JBmurc
07-04-2010, 08:38 AM
100:1 Naked shorts on silver ---will go down in history as the biggest manipulation of a metal price---------
well explained by Lebed-
http://lebed.biz/economicnewsupdate04062010.html
me mate that brought 750 kilos of silver bullion has already seen his per kg value rise $50-$80 of real value if the above shorts have to be covered silver could well make all time new highs in weeks
he like me is buying more only he's buying 100kilos I just brought another 1kilo perth mint for $900
If anyone else is keen on buying some real hard currency checkout- Trademe - there is some new bullion sellers that are selling for real sharp prices.
hey I'm alll for a silver price exploding upwards but I just gotta say how for someone with 5000 subscribers that is a really unprofessional video. The whiteboard is supported on a chair and he doesnt even have a rag or a duster to rub out his mistakes , the concept explanation is vague and fumbling, wow I just dont see that successful look coming through here. while there might be more to business than image - it is kind of important.
I'm still not necessarily sure that I agree with naked shorting being illegal either... as we hope, if they JPM are massively nakedly short then when it spikes up they will have to buy our silver off us at crazy high prices. Though I do think it should work both ways in that longs shouldnt be restricted either (I understand they are?)
JBmurc
07-04-2010, 10:24 AM
hey I'm alll for a silver price exploding upwards but I just gotta say how for someone with 5000 subscribers that is a really unprofessional video. The whiteboard is supported on a chair and he doesnt even have a rag or a duster to rub out his mistakes , the concept explanation is vague and fumbling, wow I just dont see that successful look coming through here. while there might be more to business than image - it is kind of important.
I'm still not necessarily sure that I agree with naked shorting being illegal either... as we hope, if they JPM are massively nakedly short then when it spikes up they will have to buy our silver off us at crazy high prices. Though I do think it should work both ways in that longs shouldnt be restricted either (I understand they are?)
I'd rather trust a guy that's shown time n time again to be a master stock picker that a -BMW driving suit wearing con artist that sounds so professional but ends up taking some investor money an losing the rest ,I'm sure there's thousands of NZD'er who wish they hadn't trusted the so called prof investors.
Personal I'm against the massive leverage of any kind esp. from the investor banks that use free FED money to do the manipulation of the so called free market.
IMHO the shorts an longs should be limited to only a percent of the underlining stock,commodite,currency etc etc
an Not have the abilty to control a major stake
yeh sure jbmurc I do know what you're saying its just that I dont know him as a master stock picker so I just see a poor presentation... but anyway no problem ... the bottom line is silver is doing well... been catalogueing NZ pre 1947's silver coins this weekend. at USD100 for silver even these little shillings will be worth having let alone the crowns and half crowns i'm accumulating.
JBmurc
11-04-2010, 06:56 PM
Worth a read-----------Why are silver sales Soaring
http://www.caseyresearch.com/editorial/3330?ppref=DLC178ED0410A
JBmurc
26-04-2010, 01:30 PM
Just got 2 more Kg's of silver off Trademe $845 an $900 me mate has just brought 17kgs of one silver bullion seller my other mate that just brought 1250kg an is now looking at buying another 750kg but is still waiting for his first purchase to turn up many weeks late...I see now in the USA all of their silver production is getting brought up by investors in bullion
yearly silver demand worldwide is round 880moz production 680moz -- Government sales an Silver scrap makes up the 200moz difference(for how much longer)
Amount of Silver shorted with no silver backing ?? many 100's moz (many in the know believe a 100:1 paper to real silver may even be conserative)
Add in the many more 100's million's of ETF silver funds that have no real silver..
JBmurc
27-04-2010, 09:46 PM
For centuries silver has always played "second fiddle" to its "prettier, more popular cousin," gold. While gold has continued to be the precious metal that everybody wants, loves and adores, wise investors are now beginning to take a good look at the value of silver in a diversified portfolio.
Here’s why: As the entire world continues to rapidly advance into the realms of modern day, state of the art technology, medical research and infrastructure building, silver is duly noted as a far more useful metal that touches all our lives on a moment to moment basis.
The basic science of silver is simple. It possesses the highest conductivity of electricity than any other element, as well as the highest thermal conductivity than any other metal known to man.
In the ancient world, silver was often valued above gold, not just for it’s easily malleable properties which made for such beautiful and ornate works of art and jewelry, but for the mythological beliefs that it mystically possessed the luminary powers of the moon, just as much of the ancient world believed that gold supernaturally retained the metaphysical essence of the sun.
As the progressive value and utilization of silver continues to increase with each passing day, especially in the industries of energy, medicine and technology, smart investors are beginning to see beyond the mere shine and allure of gold’s facade to realize that silver is actually doing more and more to enrich our lives as well as our portfolios.
In a forward thinking effort toward “Green Technology,” Apple Corporation is already moving towards the next generation of batteries that will be used to energize everything from “Ipods to laptops” and silver will be a major component of those long life batteries.
So beyond the traditional usages of silver, such as: coinage, photography, jewelry, dentistry, art, cutlery, silverware and table settings, silver continues to play a larger and larger part in the research, development and production of batteries, bearings, brazing and soldering, catalysts, as well as it’s increasingly expanding role in electronics, fusion and nuclear reactors, medical applications, mirrors & coatings, solar energy, water purification, as well as one of the most effective catalysts.
These days, for many investors, gold is simply not an option, with it currently being priced out of reach. This fact has proven to make silver the proverbial “apple of so many traders eye,” as it is viewed as a very affordable and logical alternative. Historically, silver has shown a consistent tendency to track pretty much right alongside the rise and fall of the value of gold.
Therefore, many investors, when believing that gold is about to “break out,” feel quite confident that, theoretically, they can equally capitalize on the move with the purchase of silver, and gain the same relative profit on the investment, without having to come up with the large price that gold currently demands.
So should everyone sell their stockpiles of precious metals and jump aggressively onto the “Silver Streak Train To Abundant Prosperity?” Not necessarily! You need to wisely analyze your specific, particular circumstances, along with your investment strategy, style, goals / objectives, time-lines and personal comfort levels.
You see, because silver is “still” such a small and very distinct segment of precious metals trading, it can be an extremely volatile market. This “does not” mean silver is a bad investment! You simply need to wisely calculate just how much uncertainty you can subject your portfolio to without suffering serious damage to your specific investment timetables and goals.
The more you learn about silver, I am confident the more you will come to discover that it isn’t just a beautiful, precious metal, it’s extremely useful as well as highly valuable!
JBmurc
05-05-2010, 06:46 PM
well I'm still buying silver bullion its my kiwi saver -
-worth a read---$100oz silver only the start
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/05.10/spiraltwo.html
Im looking to join you guys and build up a silver reserve Would like to buy about 10kg and build up to about your level JB A ny suggestions on where to look would be well appreciated Ive had a look on trade me but theres slimpickins ATM Cheers
shasta
12-05-2010, 05:57 PM
Im looking to join you guys and build up a silver reserve Would like to buy about 10kg and build up to about your level JB A ny suggestions on where to look would be well appreciated Ive had a look on trade me but theres slimpickins ATM Cheers
You might want to try the Perth Mint
Article on Silver off Kitco
Investor Demand for Silver Is Projected to Remain Strong—CPM Silver Yearbook 2010
11 May 2010, 12:42 p.m. EST
By Terry Wooten
Of Kitco News
New York -- (Kitco News) --Strong investor demand pushed silver prices higher in 2009 and that trend is likely to continue in 2010, CPM Group said Tuesday in its Silver Yearbook 2010.
CPM Group’s annual Silver Yearbook discusses in detail shifts in investment demand for silver in 2009, along with the most likely trend for investment demand for silver this year. Investors worldwide have been buying large volumes of silver for four years on a net basis. Last year investors bought 209.7 million ounces of silver on a net basis.
“This was the third largest amount of annual net silver purchases on record, surpassed only by the 222.2 million ounces purchased in 1980 and the 226.0 million ounces estimated to have been added to investor holdings in 1968,” the metals consultancy said in a news release on the Yearbook. “CPM Group projects that investor demand will remain high in 2010, totaling 213.9 million ounces.”
Silver Yearbook 2010 was released at a briefing at Bloomberg headquarters in New York City. yearbook that as the financial market crises unfolded in late 2008, silver prices plunged to $8.79, on October 28, 2008.
Silver had recovered slightly by the start of 2009. Silver settled at $11.49 (for the nearby active Comex futures contract) on January 2, 2009. Prices fell back to $10.44 on January 15, which proved to be the low settlement price for the year, CPM said. From there silver prices rose steadily throughout 2009, reaching a high for the year of $19.33 on December 2 and ending the year at $16.85. Silver prices rose further in early 2010, touching $18.82 in January.
CPM said The Silver Yearbook puts events in the 2009 silver market into the context of the aftermath of the financial crises and global recession that emerged in 2008. The freezing up CPM Group said in the of credit markets led to a massive liquidation by investors around the world of assets. Silver was no exception to this move, CPM said.
“After falling sharply in the second half of 2008, silver prices recovered over the course of 2009,” CPM said. “The price recovery in silver prices largely was based on strong investment demand of historic proportions.”
Jeffrey Christian, managing director of CPM, noted at the briefing that silver prices had moved from $5 an ounce to around $20, back now to around $19 an ounce. Christian sees a ceiling of $20 to $22 an ounce, with a floor around $16.
He said silver prices could pull back during the second half of the year on seasonal factors. There is typically a lull in June, July and August. Prices tend to be stronger in December through April and May because a lot of material is bought during that period by commercial users.
Investors also are seasonal buyers, Christian said. He noted the old stock market adage of “sell in May and then go away” and said pattern often applies to the silver market “
On the other hand, Christian said, there has been good macroeconomic numbers in the US, in China, in India and other Asian countries so far during the first half of the year.
Christian said CPM thinks there will be some slowing of demand in the second half of the year and that will reflect the seasonal element.
He said the uncertainty of the US elections and the continued turmoil in sovereign debt in Europe could make some investors back away from buying silver and gold for a period in the second half of the year.
“If things continue to be extremely problematic, investors may increase their silver purchases,” he said. “Our view is that they will, but they won’t increase their silver purchases so significantly as drive the price significantly higher and out of the range. But what they will do is they will support the price at a time of weaker demand in the second half of the year.”
Fabrication demand for silver declined sharply in the first half of 2009 before stabilizing through the rest of the year, the CPM Yearbook said. As 2009 progressed, demand for silver in many sectors began to revive.
The final four months of 2009 saw healthy demand for silver in electronics, solar panels, flat screen display panels, and chemical catalysts.
“In 2009 jewelry demand for silver declined, but the drop was not as steep as those for gold and platinum jewelry,” CPM said. “Many individuals in markets around the world shifted to silver jewelry as a lower cost substitute for gold and platinum jewelry.”
CPM said total supply of silver rose a modest 2.4% last year. Most of the rise in total silver supply came from increase in secondary supply of silver as people sold silver jewelry and decorative objects to take advantage of higher prices.
The Silver Yearbook also discusses how consumers were selling jewelry and silverware to raise cash due to the economic hard times they were facing. Mine production of silver was slightly higher. Peru was the largest producer of silver in the world in 2009, followed by Mexico.
Last year silver mine output in Peru is estimated to be 123.9 million ounces, up 4.6% from 118.5 million ounces in 2008.
--By Terry Wooten of Kitco News, twooten@kitco.com (twooten@kitco.com)
there are 3 lots of 2kg silver ingots available right now on trade me for NZ$1950 each buy now
thats $NZ27.6 per ounce which is barely higher than spot which right now I work out to be $NZ27.20
if you're lookin for 10kg thats hardly slimpickins
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Exonumia/auction-289607692.htm
shasta
13-05-2010, 08:21 AM
there are 3 lots of 2kg silver ingots available right now on trade me for NZ$1950 each buy now
thats $NZ27.6 per ounce which is barely higher than spot which right now I work out to be $NZ27.20
if you're lookin for 10kg thats hardly slimpickins
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Exonumia/auction-289607692.htm
Barrick Gold Offers $10 Million Silver Prize
TORONTO (TheStreet (http://www.thestreet.com/)) -- Barrick Gold(ABX (http://www.thestreet.com/quote/ABX.html)), the world's largest gold producer, said in the fall of 2007 that it would award $10 million to anyone who could extract silver from the company's Veladero mine.
While Toronto-based Barrick has yet to award a prize for its "Unlock the Value" program, the challenge already has helped the company mine the minds of more than 2,000 scientists from 43 countries.
>>How to Pitch Ideas to Colgate-Palmolive (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10744025/1/colgate-seeks-fresh-ideas-in-personal-care.html)
In conjunction with the Veladero challenge, the company created a registration procedure for scientists and researchers who had other ideas or services they might want to submit, says Janet Wile, director of internal communications. Scientists who want to submit ideas to Barrick Gold can do so through the "Network With Barrick" form (http://www.unlockthevalue.com/JoinOurNetwork.aspx) on the company's Web site.
But it's the $10 million carrot on a stick that has sparked invitations to visit research labs and speak at university conferences, giving Barrick access to entrepreneurial input that didn't exist before "Unlock the Value" existed.
"It made us aware of numerous technologies and research directions, including some from outside the mining industry, that may be of interest to us in various applications," Wile says. "In some cases, we have already been able to tap into these resources as contractors or consultants to help us research various opportunities to improve our operations and processes."
In the meantime, several scientists are deep into the Unlock the Value challenge, which involves extracting silver particles from the silica that encapsulates them, besting current processes that are recovering less than 7% of the silver.
Geologists have estimated that the Veladero mine, located in Argentina, contains 180 million ounces of silver, according to Barrick officials.
The company received 238 preliminary entries and requested detailed proposals from 16 of those. The competition is down to nine teams, each of whom received $25,000 for making it to the current phase of the competition, which involves concept testing.
Barrick is paying for the research funding throughout this phase, which is likely to last through the end of 2010. Phase four will involve commercial-viability testing. In theory, the $10 million would be awarded after that, provided anyone's research makes it that far.
shasta why did you quote me? your post has no relation to mine.
i was giving skid some information that I thought would be useful to him.
delinky
13-05-2010, 01:12 PM
Hi guys
I have the same question and would really appreciate your advice. My son has some money saved from his paper run and I've talked him out of purchasing an "apple laptop" and gave him a lesson on what the laptop would be worth in three years time. I have encouraged him to invest his money into gold or silver. My question is would the silver (1kg) still available on trademe Peat be a good buy for him or should I wait until prices come back a bit (if they do). Alternatively, should he put his money into physical gold? and if gold is the better option, could someone point me into the right direction to purchase some for him. tia
Delinky, what is he going to learn if you buy a gold or silver coin?
On a side note, one gold coin is over $1000 and one silver coin is $30. How much does he have saved from the paper run? Silver ferns or silver eagles (USA) coins are available to buy on trade me, NZ mint or bullion NZ.
Hi guys
I have the same question and would really appreciate your advice. My son has some money saved from his paper run and I've talked him out of purchasing an "apple laptop" and gave him a lesson on what the laptop would be worth in three years time. I have encouraged him to invest his money into gold or silver. My question is would the silver (1kg) still available on trademe Peat be a good buy for him or should I wait until prices come back a bit (if they do). Alternatively, should he put his money into physical gold? and if gold is the better option, could someone point me into the right direction to purchase some for him. tia
there are some arguments and people suggesting that this (rise in precious metal prices) is a bubble and will deflate soon
certainly prices are high and silver is very volatile
I tend to agree with ENP that there wont be much of a learning experience. Buying physical silver or gold is really an insurance against chaos or economic collapse and young people dont need insurance as they have time on their side and can recover from any losses.
Young folk need their computers these days - they just gotta be connected, but you can do that a lot cheaper than Apple gear. find a middle ground ???
delinky
13-05-2010, 02:24 PM
Thanks ENP. He's 14. Saved over $3500. He is an academic and interested in world economics and is an academic himself. I was trying an example with him whereas I had a laptop for my business on a flexiplan 3 x years ago. It was a fairly good (not the best), laptop which was $3,000. After paying for the laptop for 3 x years it ended up being worth $50. I was trying to point out that perhaps if he put his money into gold or silver - there was a higher probability that it would be worth a lot more by the time he really needed the money. ie for uni or something more substantial rather than a laptop. I thought it was a great lesson but I am absolutely open to criticisim if you think I am "over the top" with my son at this age. Sometimes we need an outside unbiased opinion.
Say the apple computer is $1000. If he has $500 already. Give him $500 to total $1000. But the deal is, he can only spend that money on a computer if he can create another $500 from the original $1000 to make $1500 in total.
This will teach him the different avenues to make money from money. He may see that small stocks are the way to do it, maybe a small business idea. Perhaps buying in bulk and selling off at retail price of items he has some knowledge about (skate boards for example?)
That way he will learn much much more. I think I remember reading something like this in the back of a Rich Dad Poor Dad book...?
I had a few small time businesses through school and managed to make an extra $300 from my initial $200 investment in a month or so. That taught me much more than if I had bought a silver coin...
Be creative!
delinky
13-05-2010, 02:29 PM
Good points Peat. Yes, I agree that computers and kids are joined at the hip. However, he has a computer that I have supplied him. It's perfectly fine (in mummiy's opinion of course), to achieve all that he needs a computer to do. As said he is only 14 and getting up at 5.30am each morning for crap pay and spending it all on an "Apple" that will be worthless in a few years just seemed crazy to me. I guess what you are saying is he needs to make his own mistakes perhaps.?
from business spectator
Markets are increasingly anxious that the United States, the eurozone, and Japan are now pursuing the same strategy of trying to drive their currencies lower in a bid to generate growth by making their exports more competitive. With all the major countries actively seeking to debase their currencies, gold is seen as a superior store of value.
Still, there are sceptics who argue that the surge in the gold price is excessive. They note that the gold price overreacts to even small to medium increases in demand, because the supply of gold is relatively fixed in the short term, which makes it easy for speculators to manipulate the market.
They also note that Spain and Portugal will be forced to adopt painful austerity measures – along the lines of those imposed on Greece – in exchange for receiving the $1 trillion rescue package, and this will savage their economies. As a result, the eurozone now faces the prospect of a double dip recession, which will crimp the demand for all commodities, including gold. The gold sceptics argue that while there might be a short term flight to gold in response to the current market uncertainty, the fundamental problem that Europe faces is deflation. And that’s never a benign environment for gold.
My personal opinion is that Apple gear is so overrated. PC will do everything and much cheaper.
Ok just saw your next post as I was writing my one.
He's doing extremely well for himself having $3500 at 14 years old. At 14, you don't really need a laptop, it's a want. When he heads off to uni (if he wants to) then it's veru useful to own a laptop. I didn't all through uni and it wasn't a problem. It's helpful though.
If I was in your situation, I'd write down a list of all the possibilities to turn that $3500 into $4000. Then all the possibilities to turn it into $5000, maybe even double it to $7000. But the time he gets to uni at 17/18 years old turning the $3500 into $7000 is realistic but still quite a challenge. I'd explore all the different ways to make money out of the money he already has. That will teach lessons that he will never forget and make him a very financially aware young guy with ideas and capital at his fingertips. Invest in his education first. The money will follow I'm sure of it.
delinky
13-05-2010, 02:32 PM
ENP - again thanks. Glad I asked the question as I "thought I was totally 100% right" on this one. But the lesson here - "I think I needed to think outside the square". I may have been a bit tunnel visioned on this one.
Delinky, I've been in that same situation with tunnel vision many many times. I'm just learning from experience.
No use putting HIS money into YOUR ideas. Do what's best for him, do what he is interested and passionate about then he will take more of an interest and think for himself.
If you can't decide on anything, just keep reading up on stuff until you find something that you both agree on is a good idea to put the money to good use.
delinky
13-05-2010, 02:49 PM
I have to say I am sitting here laughing at myself. You guys gave me a lesson "I" needed today. The reason I am laughing is I expected this thread to tell me "how great I was making such a suggestion to my young son, thinking of his best interests, giving him a good comparable lesson regarding the computer" and so on. You opened my eyes up and I totally agree with you both now. I guess we are never too old to learn. My son has just arrived home and I will let him read this thread. Again thank you!!
Thanks for the link peat,but the spot price for silver is in Troy ounces. therefore 1kg=32.15Troy ounces or 64.3 for 2 kgs.it comes to about $30 an ounce. Im not so quick to push the buy now button at $30 ounce Neverthe less,I appreciate your input and would value anyones opinion on whats a realistic price for bars Cheers
ok yes well thats very useful info for me to skid, I have updated my spreadsheet
even at 30 p oz thats as good as it gets for physical silver from what I've seen on trademe over the last few years....
shasta
13-05-2010, 05:26 PM
shasta why did you quote me? your post has no relation to mine.
i was giving skid some information that I thought would be useful to him.
Oops i hit the wrong reply button, sorry :-(
Gold dealer warns investors to watch and wait
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10644781
"It's craziness to buy on a sharp rise like this because sharper rises mean sharper falls.
Trading in gold through his firm had been muted during the past few weeks although there had been more silver buying"
GOING UP
GOLD PRICES PER OUNCE IN NZ$
* Yesterday: $1722
* A month ago: $1625
* Sept 2008: $1166
SILVER PRICES PER KG IN NZ$
* Yesterday: $883
* A month ago: $825
* Sept 2008: $540
Thanks peat, you may well be right on that one JB seems to find bargans occasionally but Im sure its taken him a fair while to accumulate:)
Bixbite
14-05-2010, 09:32 PM
Here is a link for the precious metals and base metals supplier - A & E Metal
You can browse around this site to get some ideas.
http://www.aemetal.com.au/Webstore/default.aspx
http://www.aemetal.com.au/Webstore/p-1925-fine-silver.aspx
silver art bars
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Other/auction-290021719.htm
only 38/oz at current price (auction still going) be interesting to see what premium he gets for the fancy presentation
I checked out nzsilver.co.nz from where I bought some silver but his website seems a shell.
bullionnz.co.nz website says no shipping till Queens Birrthday. But hes got 10oz lots on trade me @38oz saying they wont ship till end of May
nzmint will probably DO you for some silver, they have ozs for 58 !
theres a couple of 20oz lots on trademe , cheapest buy now is @34.5
and some 10oz lots (auction still going) currently at 32.5/oz no
so theres some around but its fully priced and sometimes is delayed delivery
current spot price in NZD = 27.50
Thanks for that There never seems to be an easy way to buy pr. metals without a hefty premium.
Im not in a panic as they predict a rise in interest rates later in the year which would give the $kiwi a boost ,provided it doesnt get shot down on the next economic scare.meanwhile,if someones selling up I suppose this would be a good place to offer it, thus avoiding the Trade me commission.
JBmurc
17-05-2010, 02:54 PM
Im looking to join you guys and build up a silver reserve Would like to buy about 10kg and build up to about your level JB A ny suggestions on where to look would be well appreciated Ive had a look on trade me but theres slimpickins ATM Cheers
between myself an two of my mates that for along time were not at all interested in holding bullion (Till they did some study thanks to my e-mails an talk on the facts behind silver fiat money etc) as of today we three hold round 68,000oz silver bullion (sadly I'm only a very small part of that total holding)
Like I said to me mates you don't buy bullion for a quick profit you should buy it with a min 5yr outlook personal I plan to hold till I retire prob in 20-30yrs at which time it should be priced much,much higher than today's near cost to mine prices
as for whats a fair price low as possible of course but I'm happy to pay round $30 for real nice bullion 1oz maples etc
worth a watch---http://inflation.us/videos.html
Holy Mac!! Thats aboput a maple trees worth
Contacted Bullion NZ and got a price for a lot of 500 1oz maples or eagles Price $17000 ...thats $34oz Think ill have to wait till if or when the frenzy dies down a bit[was expecting $30-32oz]
500 1oz maples or eagles Price $17000 ...thats $34oz Think ill have to wait till if or when the frenzy dies down a bit[was expecting $30-32oz]
theres a buy now on TM for 16999
and some of bullionnz's offerings on TM are currently bid at lower oz prices than that.
or some kiwi silver ferns closing in the next 24 hrs - current bid 25/oz (no doubt it will climb)
but yeh nothing lower than that at the moment.
even though silver has fallen away a bit , so has the kiwi , we're still holding at over NZD27/oz on the spot mkt
shasta
22-05-2010, 11:17 AM
BMO reckons silver will outperform this year
BMO Research predicts $18.72 average silver price this year and higher in 2012
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Friday , 21 May 2010
RENO, NV -
BMO Research forecasts silver to average US$18.72/oz this year, $20/oz in 2011 and decline to $18/oz in 2012, with the long-term silver price projected to average $14/oz.
In a first-quarter silver recap published Wednesday, BMO said its preferred senior silver producers are Fresnillo, Pan American Silver, and Silver Wheaton, while First Majestic is the preferred mid-tier producer. Bear Creek Mining is the junior silver producer favored by BMO analyst Andrew Kaip and associates Alexandra Syrnyk and Heather Taylor.
"BMO Research forecasts a relatively constrained physical supply/demand environment for silver and maintains the view that silver will outperform relative to other metals in the medium term," the analysts said.
They cited the recent 6.5% surge in silver since the beginning of this month and the ongoing market equity correction on the back of market jitters generated by the European sovereign debt crisis.
Meanwhile, BMO anticipates increased gold purchases "by investors and central banks alike, as 2010 unfolds and the very existence of the euro is being questioned."
The analysts predict that Fresnillo, Silver Wheaton and Coeur d'Alene mines will have a capital intensive year, as Fresnillo and Coeur capital programs are focused on mine development. BMO advises Silver Wheaton will allocate capex toward silver stream purchase payments.
Pan American Silver and Hecla Mining are projected by BMO to increase cash position through 2010 "owing to strong projected cash flow and relatively low capital programs." Meanwhile, as they improve their respective balance sheets, Coeur d'Alene, Hochschild Mining and Silver Standard Resources are projected to end the year in a positive net debt position.
This year, BMO Research forecasts that Fresnillo and Pan American "are expected to maintain their status as the #1 and #2 primary silver producers. Meanwhile the analysts suggest Silver Standard "could transition into a significant silver producer."
The analysts called Bear Creek the "premier junior growth company" which could move to intermediate status by 2013. Bear Creek is expected to complete a feasibility study for the Santa Ana silver project in southern Peru in mid-third-quarter 2010.
Bear Creek claims to have more than 500 million ounces of silver, plus by-product metals in its Corani and Santa Ana projects, both located in Peru.
JBmurc
22-05-2010, 11:43 AM
From my recent studies their is round 340,000ton of mineable silver left in the world
-Silver tends to sit in shallow (near the surface) deposits, so there is none to be found by digging deeper, as opposed to how gold is found.
According to the US geological survey, its now 22,000+ tons annually that is mined.(demand closer to 27-28,000 tons reserves,recycl etc fake ETF! )
-they believe their is round 200,000tons of silver that is easy to extract(with the rest going to be much higher cost)
8yrs not the long away,esp as silver demand is increasing some time in the not too distant future there will be major buying from major uses that can't replace silver in their industries with any other metal
Also I see CXC one of the leading silver producers has been making losses for along time (off Etrade)
One clip I watched on silver production stated only 2 of the 15 or so silver focus miners make a profit ,how will these companies keep exploring an producing if they are losing millions esp. if the long term price is $14
seems like its (silver) not being completely forgotten compared to gold in the climate of fear. whereas recently it has felt a bit as if silver is just another component of the market (by that I mean attached to the DOW like the kiwi is) last night shows its capable of diverging
Its definitely finding support around 17.30 which is an important area as breakthrough of that would put a head and shoulders pattern into play on the downside. Currently 27.50 in NZD.
JBmurc
08-06-2010, 09:33 AM
seems like its (silver) not being completely forgotten compared to gold in the climate of fear. whereas recently it has felt a bit as if silver is just another component of the market (by that I mean attached to the DOW like the kiwi is) last night shows its capable of diverging
Its definitely finding support around 17.30 which is an important area as breakthrough of that would put a head and shoulders pattern into play on the downside. Currently 27.50 in NZD.
I really think it's only a matter of time before SILVER explodes north of $20oz never in the history of gold an silver has their been so much more gold above ground than silver as there is now
the near 70:1 ratio is way out of whack 20:1 would still be too high going off US Geo knowledge of silver only being round 10 time more abundant within the earth crust an the fact most Silver mines get less silver the deeper they go unlike gold so many of the world's easy to mine silver in large deposit's are long GONE
On CNBC last nigh their was a Analyst that was very bullish on Gold stating too get to 1980 highs again with true Iflation adjusted he believes gold would have to get to 7000oz USD with Silver's true ratio 10:1 $700oz USD even through he did believe it may well spike higher on mania buying..an because of the massive collaspe of much the world's Fiat currencys
Now buying last Kilo of silver at $27oz NZD I'm not selling one oz till it's north of 100
yeh well hopefully demand supply will be its saviour.
I have a bit of a conflict with my silver optimism in the fact that I am an Elliot wave fanboy and yet they are bearish on silver and gold saying that they like everything else will be part of the deflationary environment. So this gives me internal tension haha and I have to resolve this with a long term perspective.
JBmurc
10-06-2010, 01:20 PM
yeh well hopefully demand supply will be its saviour.
I have a bit of a conflict with my silver optimism in the fact that I am an Elliot wave fanboy and yet they are bearish on silver and gold saying that they like everything else will be part of the deflationary environment. So this gives me internal tension haha and I have to resolve this with a long term perspective.
-Well demand has outstripped supply every year for 16yrs world stock piles are dropping 90% of all silver ever mined is gone...US silver shorts are at record highs...fiat money worldwide is growing at record highs....
supply demand clip
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDkXItZ5kFw
JBmurc
12-06-2010, 09:28 AM
Throughout history, silver bullion has served mankind as a primary monetary metal. It is durable, divisible, convenient, has utility value, and cannot be created by fiat.
However, unlike its fellow monetary metal?gold?silver is most commonly used today as an industrial commodity. Industrial demand for silver has grown consistently for the past three decades because of silver's many unique properties, including its strength, malleability, and ductility...its unparalleled electrical and thermal conductivity...its sensitivity to and high reflectance of light...and its ability to endure extreme temperature ranges.
In addition to its industrial uses and qualities, silver is also used in numerous health care products because of the unique antibacterial characteristics that it possesses. The "Silver Bullet" is used by hospitals to prevent bacterial infections in burn victims. Wound dressings and other wound care products incorporate a layer of fabric containing silver for prevention of secondary infections. In a world that is showing increasing concern about the spreading of disease and potential pandemics, silver is increasingly being tapped for its microbicidal qualities.
Silver bullion
It is estimated that more than 95% of all the silver ever mined throughout history has already been consumed by industrial use. That silver is gone forever, unrecoverable at any price. In 1900, there were approximately 12 billion ounces of silver in the world. Today, that figure has fallen to about 300 million ounces of above-ground, refined silver. This means that at current prices, it would only take about four billion dollars to purchase all of the above-ground silver in the world today.
Anyone who follows world headlines is certainly aware of increasing and ever-present geopolitical instability. This, combined with the evolving macroeconomic landscape, can be viewed as bullish catalysts for the silver market. Silver's historic role as a store of value and investment, and its increasing demand in an environment where growing industrial use exceeds available new supplies, further suggest a bullish trend for this versatile metal.
Some of the world's leading financial analysts believe that silver is one of the world's most important commodities, with unparalleled investment opportunity for the future. Silver's unique properties, which make it ideal and essential for global industry, create a situation where there is simply no substitute. In addition, silver prices at times have been extremely volatile, making silver an attractive investment and trading vehicle.
JBmurc
03-07-2010, 06:31 PM
http://news.coinupdate.com/massive-drain-of-comex-silver-inventories-continues-0344/
got yours
elZorro
04-07-2010, 04:25 PM
http://news.coinupdate.com/massive-drain-of-comex-silver-inventories-continues-0344/
got yours
JB: Thanks for these posts. When silver goes higher, would gold follow? Here's hoping..
I wasn't aware some banks held silver, sure it's in currencies (coin).
Can you explain why you prefer to hold silver at home, rather than in a mining company, stored in their mines?
Cheers.
JBmurc
04-07-2010, 06:42 PM
JB: Thanks for these posts. When silver goes higher, would gold follow? Here's hoping..
I wasn't aware some banks held silver, sure it's in currencies (coin).
Can you explain why you prefer to hold silver at home, rather than in a mining company, stored in their mines?
Cheers.
I have got some invested in a few precious metal shares, the silver bullion I hold in my own safe is my Kiwi saver when I have some spare funds I top it up holding 51kg at the moment
I like the idea i own the metal 100% If you do the numbers the gold price an silver price have outperformed many PGM companies --per oz I paid an average of $26per oz 12-14m ago I've seen many selling for $34oz+ of late
macduffy
05-07-2010, 09:47 AM
You raise an interesting point there, elZorro.
The price relationship between gold and silver is a fascinating subject as it has fluctuated widely over time. There is a fairly strongly held view in some quarters that it has got out of kilter in recent times, ie that the PoS has slipped in relation to the PoG.
As a holder of a silver miner (CXC) I hope that's correct and that the PoS will rise to "regularise" the position. Of course, it may be that the historical relationship is restored through the PoG falling or indeed it may be that that relationship is no loger valid.
elZorro
05-07-2010, 02:53 PM
Hi Macduffy, I had a quick look at these graphs to see what you mean..
http://goldprice.org/gold-silver-ratio.html#10_year_gold_price
And I guess that in the last few months the ratio has increased, but it's still well within the range that it has spanned over 10years or so. There are lots of ways of looking at prices and value, that's for sure.
JBmurc
26-07-2010, 09:17 PM
Good read here for me fellow silver bulls ---http://seekingalpha.com/article/215450-where-is-the-silver?source=yahoo
Good read here for me fellow silver bulls ---http://seekingalpha.com/article/215450-where-is-the-silver?source=yahoo
was looking for your name...
JBmurc
27-07-2010, 07:35 AM
was looking for your name...
LOL yeah maybe if it was silver bullion holdings in Queenstown ----The ETF SLV 31% bet they haven't got any where that amount of real silver
JBmurc
05-08-2010, 07:56 PM
Max --good part on silver---Buy the real!!!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9OLMK2TOnc
Hi JB.
What price are you paying for your eagles at the moment?...and where from?
I don't have a lot of spare cash and Eagles are my favoured way of slowly buying silver.
Cheers
JBmurc
06-08-2010, 04:49 PM
Hi JB.
What price are you paying for your eagles at the moment?...and where from?
I don't have a lot of spare cash and Eagles are my favoured way of slowly buying silver.
Cheers
Got them of Trademe $320 for 10 bargain buy IMHO
Elliot Wave - god bless their souls - are of course notoriously bearish,deflationary and very resilient in that stance, which includes gold and silver , and this means that their predictions are often counter-trend and this can be exasperating especially with regards to gold and silver where they persist in forecasting large falls that never occur
BUT - it would seem they have finally capitulated with silver.
Today for the first time for ages hesitantly predicting a rise - I quote
The longer [Silver] twists and turns and basically moves sideways, the harder it becomes to maintain a stance that expects a decline sooner rather than later. The reason is that long, sideways moves appear most often as pauses in the preceding trend, which, when complete, then lead to a resumption of that trend. In silver's case, the trend was up into the May high at $19.86. The sideways move since then can be acceptably counted as a wave b (circle) triangle, per the alt. line on the chart. This pattern means that a sharp thrust above $20.00 will develop before prices top out and start a significant decline. As we've stated many times, a decline beneath $17.06 would allow us to eliminate the triangle pattern from consideration. Until then, we must continue to respect this potential
JBmurc
20-08-2010, 10:43 AM
A friend of mine I've helpped invest funds in the sharemarket etc over the last few years ago finally decided to take my advise on diversing his investments
So round 6months ago he brought 1,000kg then another 1,000kg of silver bullion from a local firm in Auckland half of the bars were credit suisse 1kg the other half 5kg-1kg ACB bars thing is I was talking with him on the phone last night I asked him if he's viewed all of his 2-ton of bullion would be great sight -he paid for it 6 months ago an was going to keep it in their safe... he went in and found out dumbfounded that they could not let him into view in in their safe for security reasons insurance etc ?? I told him to take the lot out an keep it in his own safes at different locations to spread the risk -going to be interest if they hand over his total holding or stuff him round with small lots..cause they've been using his holding as their short term selling invertory ...might give the firm a ring myself as it was me that got them the business
I asked him if he's viewed all of his 2-ton of bullion would be great sight -he paid for it 6 months ago an was going to keep it in their safe... he went in and found out dumbfounded that they could not let him into view in in their safe for security reasons insurance etc ??
So they have what a mill or more of his stuff and they wont let him see it !!! ? presumably he's paying storage fees etc... wow thats terrible.
you would need reasonable secure setup to hold that much tho. so options are limited in terms of taking it away.
with gold there are numbers assoc with each ingot isnt there? anything like that for silver?
JBmurc
20-08-2010, 11:04 AM
yeah some 64,000oz+ in talking with the Silver bullion firm it sounds like they offered to bring all his silver from the safe to view if he wanted just not let him view in safe which is fair..(he didn't tell me that) still like I said to me mate I'd much rather have the only key to my own safe ,In his case make that a big one
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/hinde-capital-why-silver-velocity-will-be-bullet-sends-metal-much-higher
JBmurc
20-08-2010, 10:01 PM
- 90 Was the ratio of silver to gold when the price of an ounce of silver was at a low in 1991. With one ounce of gold one could buy 90 ounce of silver. In recessions the spread widens.
- 51 Was the average ratio of the price of gold to silver in 2007. In boom time the spread narrows.
- 17 Was the gold / silver ratio at the time of the record gold and silver prices in 1980. Bunker Hunt corners the market.
- 15 Was the official ratio of gold to silver during the great period of Bimetallism, 15 ½ for France (1803), 15.68 for the USA (1800), 14,29 for England (1806).
- 12 Was the gold/silver ratio in Antiquity in Rome.
- 12.5 Was the ratio in Greece at the time of the death of Alexander the Great in 323 BC.
The ratio of production and reserves of gold and silver:
- 13 Is the ratio of world production from 1493 to 1931. For this 400 year period 13 times more silver than gold was produced.
- 8 Was the ratio of silver to gold production in the world in 2006. What is being said is that eight times more silver than gold was produced in 2006.
- 7.64 It the ratio of all production of gold and silver during one century (1900-2003). In the 103 year period, there was 7.64 times more silver than gold produced in the world.
- 6.4 Was the ratio of the ground reserves of silver to gold in 2000
macduffy
23-08-2010, 12:41 PM
Here's a bullish view on prospects for the PoS.
http://www.thebull.com.au/articles/a/13694-the-big-silver-rally.html
thanks for that Link MacDuffy it was an interesting article.
looks a bit like silver has got sick of pi$$ing around.
JBmurc
26-08-2010, 12:07 PM
yeah big gains for silver --- AUD $21.38oz my SVL shares should well get a good kick on today
even got a bargain .999 2kg bar today for $25.8per ozNZD cheaper than the miners get paid
JBmurc
27-08-2010, 02:27 PM
Great report on silver---
http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2010/8/25_Ben_Davies.html
JBmurc
04-09-2010, 12:02 PM
Silver 19.85oz close to breaking 20 unlike Gold Silver has gained some strenght overnight GOLD/SILVER ratio down to the low 60's from the high 60's with much more to come
JBmurc
07-09-2010, 10:47 AM
some good silver articles
-http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/09.10/fiftyyears.html
-http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11360:the-silver-price-spiral-part-iii-tomorrow&catid=49:silver-commentary&Itemid=130
-http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b5ee472e-b9a0-11df-968f-00144feabdc0.html?ftcamp=rss
Lego_Man
07-09-2010, 03:28 PM
A friend of mine I've helpped invest funds in the sharemarket etc over the last few years ago finally decided to take my advise on diversing his investments
So round 6months ago he brought 1,000kg then another 1,000kg of silver bullion from a local firm in Auckland half of the bars were credit suisse 1kg the other half 5kg-1kg ACB bars thing is I was talking with him on the phone last night I asked him if he's viewed all of his 2-ton of bullion would be great sight -he paid for it 6 months ago an was going to keep it in their safe... he went in and found out dumbfounded that they could not let him into view in in their safe for security reasons insurance etc ?? I told him to take the lot out an keep it in his own safes at different locations to spread the risk -going to be interest if they hand over his total holding or stuff him round with small lots..cause they've been using his holding as their short term selling invertory ...might give the firm a ring myself as it was me that got them the business
Wow...he spent a couple of million dollars on silver bullion?
Wow.
JBmurc
07-09-2010, 04:34 PM
Wow...he spent a couple of million dollars on silver bullion?
Wow.
Yep an he whats to buy more I said he should be happy with his current holding round $16oz av an diverse any extra funds towards Shares /property/AUD cash deposits
no need to go overboard LOL,, an before you ask he is a very smart man that started with little to Now be worth many dollars- not some tinfoil hat wearing nutter that was given millions etc
JBmurc
17-09-2010, 12:18 PM
looking at Momsilvershop to buy some of the well know 1os rounds your be looking at least $37-38 oz NZD trademe 34-35 cheapie buying here... has been different in the past
Prob because the kiwi$ is a bit higher these days. Wasnt that long ago they were selling 500 oz monster boxes for $15000 Kiwi Not bad buying
JBmurc
17-09-2010, 07:32 PM
20.99 so close will we see 21+ overnight I think so
macduffy
20-09-2010, 08:28 PM
More bullish talk about silver.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/silver-looks-ready-to-rip/story-e6frg9ex-1225926785632
matching and exceeding the high of 2 1/2 years ago now.
What's a good demo account to start learning about forex?
Also what is the minimum $ brokers allow you to start with?
is silver what you want to trade ENP ?
anyway I have two demo accounts
https://marketindex.rbs.com/uk/TrialAccountApplication.aspx
and I used to use fxgame at oanda.com but as it wont work simultaneously with the real one (which I use all the time) so I moved to that RBS (Royal Bank of Scotland) one above.
For real accounts for a novice oanda is good as it allows small balances and small trades. Can be a bit of an issue transferring the money over to them I used Paypal but one must have a verified paypal account
I think the RBS one above for real live trading requires 50k but its only open to UK residents anyway. But the usefulness of their demo (to me) lies in the fact that it is using a very similar design and interface to Oanda and it includes indexes and bonds.
good luck
No not trading silver, just NZD traded with the likes of USD, AUD, JPY, etc.
I just want to try a demo account to see how the entire process works. Do I need a demo account from a NZ company or doesn't it really matter for learning purposes?
The reason I wrote it in this thread is I thought I'd get more responses.
the demo accounts I've mentioned dont care where you are located
the RBS one is domiciled in pounds but does that really matter for demo trading?
the demo accounts I've mentioned dont care where you are located
the RBS one is domiciled in pounds but does that really matter for demo trading?
Choice, thanks.
Let the learning curve begin.
JBmurc
30-09-2010, 10:01 PM
$22oz USD ----Like I said along time ago Silver is cheap an even at these prices still got along way to go till it reaches a fair value to other assets
http://www.theinsidetrader.com.au/index.php?siteid=1&action=page&page=silver.html
inghamp
30-09-2010, 10:57 PM
I listened to Robert Kiyosaki's advice. He said with regards to silver: "I believe this is the biggest investment anyone can make in the next 100yrs" I am currently buying silver bullion (Argor-Heraeus silver).
As a Distributor, the price for me is currently $USD 204.05 for 250 gm (8.818 oz).
No minimum purchase amount. Long term fundamentals for silver are not changing.. No new supply coming on and with all this stimulus worldwide it can't change.
IF you are interested in silver or gold: http://goldsave.co/
Has lots of great educational stuff from people who want you to protect your wealth from government tax (inflation)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10681375
JBmurc
18-10-2010, 05:58 PM
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=10681375
Yeah It's one amazing metal I have a stuffed shoulder (motorbike madness) I have used a 10oz bar of silver bullion like a heat pad as Silver is the best conductor of heat etc it heats up very quick on a small watt light(I have one small halogen light i can place the bar on top of the light source)within minutes the bar is quite hot as small enough to massage the tendons muscles round my shoulder joint helps ease the pain that an alcohol
JPMorgan Chase & Co and HSBC Holdings Plc were hit with two lawsuits on Wednesday by investors who accused them of conspiring to drive down silver prices, and reaping an estimated hundreds of millions of dollars of illegal profits.
The banks, among the world's largest, were accused of manipulating the market for COMEX silver futures and options contracts from the first half of 2008 by amassing huge short positions in silver futures contracts that are designed to profit when prices fall.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE69Q5HQ20101027
JBmurc
03-11-2010, 05:45 PM
Silver to gold ratio now sub 55 onwards to the high 40's
silver oz's now being bid $40 and more on TradeMe.
What is a suitable premium to pay on physical silver?
Does the price of physical fluctuate as readily as non-physical?
Disc: Thinking of buying physical silver to lock away for years to come, but wondering weather a pullback to $25 will effect the physical price hugely at the moment. Any ideas?
Cheers
JBmurc
10-11-2010, 09:39 PM
Depends on the NZD/USD interbank rate at times on how much the NZD price moves it may be cheaper to buy from the USA other time best to Buy of trade me etc
even at $40oz its cheap long term wise the cheapest I paid for a few KG's was $24oz back when the US price was low teens 12oz-14oz now it's 27.60oz USD
Cheers[/QUOTE]
Cheers once again JB! I am looking at Trademe at the mo, physical seems to value it at about NZD $40, while today trades at about NZD $35, so less than a NZD$10 premium at the mo. Hope I've worked that out right :)
Gee TRY is looking really cheap with those silver credits!!!!
JBmurc
12-11-2010, 12:00 PM
Cheers once again JB! I am looking at Trademe at the mo, physical seems to value it at about NZD $40, while today trades at about NZD $35, so less than a NZD$10 premium at the mo. Hope I've worked that out right :)
Gee TRY is looking really cheap with those silver credits!!!!
yep I brought a good spread of silver assets -shares/bullion think it will as it has so far reward me nicely
inghamp
12-11-2010, 01:43 PM
Hi JBmurc,
Can I ask what shares you are watch for silver?
Does the NZX/ASX have any listed?
JBmurc
14-11-2010, 09:19 AM
by Jason Hommel, November 13th, 2010
To the Top Ten Institutional Shareholders and Top Ten Mutual Fund Shareholders of JP Morgan:
It's news that JP Morgan is being sued for manipulating the silver market by maintaining a large concentrated naked short position in futures contracts on the CME's COMEX metals exchange.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgan-hsbc-sued-for-silver-manipulation-2010-10-27
The lawsuits were announced just days after a brave man in government, Bart Chilton, Commissioner of the CFTC (http://www.cftc.gov/), the Commodities Futures Trading Commission, made a statement that acknowledged silver price manipulation.
http://www.gold-speculator.com/editors-picks/41121-cftc-chairman-bart-chilton-silver-has-been-subject-attempted-manipulation.html
The lawsuits mean that very intelligent lawyers believe that JP Morgan's short position is so obvious and provable that there is a case to be made, and money to be won from JP Morgan, and they feel that perhaps they will get help even from those in government, such as Judges. Blood is in the water, and JP Morgan is the one bleeding.
The news articles of the lawsuits don't tell the full story. See, I know the men who helped expose JP Morgan as the silver short, and I help to inform those men, and promote their work. I was the first to file an antitrust complaint to the US Justice Department against JP Morgan for silver manipulation in April of 2010. http://silverstockreport.com/2010/doj.html
JP Morgan is also the custodian of the silver ETF, SLV, which also does not likely have all the silver, which would be another short position.
JP Morgan's third short position in silver is likely a much larger naked short position in silver than the other two combined, and it's through the "over the counter" silver market, which has been up to $200 billion in size according to the BIS, the Bank of International Settlements.
http://www.bis.org/statistics/derstats.htm
http://www.bis.org/statistics/otcder/dt21c22a.pdf
See the second link, above, the pdf file, the second table, Table 22A:, under the category "other precious metals". The "Notional Amounts Outstanding" in June 2009, were $203 billion.
Jeffrey Christian, bullion bank apologist, at the CFTC hearing on silver on March, 25th, 2010, admitted that silver was traded and leveraged "over 100 to 1" in the London market.
JP Morgan also holds the largest derivatives positions of any banks, at $69 Trillion, according to the US OCC. Thus, it is likely that JP Morgan also holds the largest short position in silver derivatives, too, as a matter of course, since they dominate derivatives trading in general. So, to them, a $100 billion short position in silver would be "chump change" compared to their other derivatives positions, and may, in actual fact, be a part of a larger overall strategy to maintain the value of their other derivatives, (including the US dollar) to keep interest rates low.
http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/derivatives-quarterly-report.html
http://www.occ.gov/topics/capital-markets/financial-markets/trading/derivatives/dq210.pdf
See the last page of the second link, the pdf link, above. The OCC sometimes changes the location of these links, so if the link breaks, you might want to ask one of your junior researchers to locate them for you, or look around the occ.gov page for a few minutes to find it yourself, or simply contact the OCC as ask them for a copy of their "Quarterly Report on Bank Trading and Derivatives Activities" Second Quarter 2010
So, the problem is simple to understand, but complex to solve, because JP Morgan's market influencing positions cannot be closed without massive losses that will bankrupt JP Morgan, and perhaps also significantly devalue the US dollar.
The world's annual silver production is estimated at between about 550 million ounces of silver to about 650 million ounces. At 600 million oz., at $25/oz., that's a tiny $15 billion market. The investment side of the silver market is even smaller, at only 100 million oz annually, which, at today's silver prices, is a much smaller $2.5 billion market.
Key problem: How can the world's leading banks, (probably mostly JP Morgan) sell $100 billion worth of silver in 6 months, which is 6.66 times the entire world's annual production of only $15 billion worth of silver, and about 50 times the actual physical silver investment market, and it not be fraudulent silver, not real silver, which creates this problem?
But the problem is much bigger than how it might appear from just that. See, in 1980, silver prices hit $50/oz. That was when M3, the money supply in the US, was a tiny $1.8 trillion. Today, it's $18 trillion, and growing at a rate of about $2 trillion per year, which is the what the US government must print to pay their bills. So, the inflation-adjusted price of silver could be ten times higher, or up to $500/oz., if only 1% of the population of the USA began to buy silver.
See, 1% of $18 trillion is $180 billion. How can $180 billion pour into the real and actual physical tiny silver market of $15 billion (or the tinier silver investment market of $2.5 billion) without driving the silver price to $500/oz.?
See, the problem is that the silver price will hit $500/oz. just for starters, by the time only 1% of people in the USA alone try to protect their wealth from inflation by buying silver and gold, and the way things are going in government, that's nearly a given by now.
If my reading of the OCC report is any indication, then JP Morgan's short position in silver could be as high as 25% to 50% of the entire world banking system's short position of $200 billion in silver (and that was when silver was $15/oz.)!
JP Morgan's short position in silver could thus be as high as 3.3 billion ounces if we are conservative, and estimate their position at only 25% of the BIS report numbers. By $500/oz., JP Morgan's short position could be worth a negative $1.5 trillion, and that's just for starters. It could grow worse if they add to their short position, in a misguided attempt to manipulate a market that is clearly moving against them.
That kind of activity by a rogue trader brought down Barrings Bank, as showcased by the 1999 movie, "Rogue Trader".
http://www.amazon.com/Rogue-Trader-Ewan-McGregor/dp/B00002RAPA/ref=sr_1_3?ie=UTF8&qid=1289648877&sr=8-3
The other problem is that silver is mostly consumed by industry, as it's the greatest conductor of electricity in the world, and is used up in 10,000 applications. Only oil has more applications, but oil can't be used as money. It's just way too hard for the average person to store $8000 worth of oil in 100 barrels on their front lawn, and apartment dwellers never could. Gold is also unsuitable as money for most people, because a tiny tenth ounce piece is just too valuable if it became worth about a month's salary, a historic norm.
I submit the problem is bigger than what your brightest minds, your brightest economists, and brightest students in today's world can solve.
See, there is no central bank of silver. There is no lender of last resort for silver. And you can't print silver to solve this problem, because at the end of the day, real silver is needed by industry.
Developed nations, such as the USA, consume, in industry, about 6/10ths of an oz. of silver per year, per person. As the world economy grows, that will increase.
Silver also has the smallest number of years of resources in the ground of nearly any major metal. It's about a 14 year supply. (This is substantially smaller than the world's 40 year supply of oil.)
JBmurc
14-11-2010, 09:26 AM
Hi JBmurc,
Can I ask what shares you are watch for silver?
Does the NZX/ASX have any listed?
well currently my silver share interests are with -ARD(I hold the opts ARDO)
-ARV(have some silver drill results more Gold/REE focus)
I did hold SVL which is also a great silver share as well as CCU,TRY I do plan to buy back into one of these once other short term punts pay off
Pumice
17-11-2010, 06:55 PM
This thread has gone quiet since Silver has dropped......
Has the trend reversed?
What are punters doing? locking in profits are playing the waiting game.
.
Always the chance a Butterfly could have formed which would project a possible measured fall to $18-20
http://i55.tinypic.com/27zg740.gif
3055
JBmurc
24-11-2010, 11:58 AM
$500oz silver----JP morgan ---mass debts in the derivatives market
http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/11.10/$500silver.html
I thought the butterfly was more apparent in gold actually, arco.
I've reduced my physical holdings in silver now as well. At $43 oz it was good to cash up a bit.
I thought the butterfly was more apparent in gold actually, arco.
I've reduced my physical holdings in silver now as well. At $43 oz it was good to cash up a bit.
Hi Peat
It perhaps has a slightly better 'shape' but the CD leg is over 200% so pretty stretched. It was more of a harmonic Butterfly around late Nov last year when it reversed just under the 161.8
the butterfly I am referring to on gold isnt over such a long time frame arco
on the three hourly
3066
gazprom1
07-12-2010, 10:35 AM
Silver at US$30.06oz this am.....interesting to see what happens if it holds over $30. If so, could really push on quickly!!! Hi-Ho Silver=)
Gazprom
wow time to get out or jump on big time? :confused:
trend is up
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0182nys.gif
"Crash JP Morgan - Buy Silver!" - Max Keiser
Silver Manipulation by JP Morgan via Max Keiser and Alan Grayson - END THE FED
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sANWk4yU2sg&feature=player_embedded
JP Morgan Silver Manipulation Explained
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gl47z2g2EvI&feature=player_embedded
Turk stated, “It is important for people to keep their eye on the big picture and not be distracted by short-term volatility in the price of gold and silver. The long-term trend for both precious metals is still pointing higher.”
.....
"When I last emailed this individual a couple of weeks ago, he was still trying to get his silver from this Swiss bank. This has been going on for over two months, and again we are only talking about 20,000 ounces of silver. This may seem unimaginable to some people, but I had told this individual in September when he contacted me that I had seen this problem repeatedly with other people.
http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2010/12/8_Turk_-_Swiss_Bank_Client_Battles_Over_2_Months_For_His_S ilver.html
Beagle
20-12-2010, 04:40 PM
Hey Guys,
My wife bought 10 1kg bars of Silver from an outfit in Onehunga Auckland a year or so ago and wants to know what's a fair price today for her 10kg's.
I told her its about U.S. $29.30 an ounce so at say 74 cents American = approx $N.Z.39.60 per ounce and there's 32.15 troy ounces per kg so its worth about $1,273.14 per 1kg bar, total $12,731.40 - how's my maths is that about right ?
What's a normal premium for physical bars ? I'm thinking about buying it off her, we have always run seperate accounts for reasons that I'd rather not go into, so if I was to pay her a fair price what would that be ?
What would an average Gold and Silver dealer charge me to cash it in, say I keep it for a couple of years, how do I get out and how does that work ? i.e. how do they test the silver before they pay out the cash ?
Any help greatly appreciated.
ananda77
20-12-2010, 05:19 PM
Hi Roger,
...personally would not do business with a spouse
Kind Regards
Look on trade me ...... ?
JBmurc
20-12-2010, 10:43 PM
Hey Guys,
My wife bought 10 1kg bars of Silver from an outfit in Onehunga Auckland a year or so ago and wants to know what's a fair price today for her 10kg's.
I told her its about U.S. $29.30 an ounce so at say 74 cents American = approx $N.Z.39.60 per ounce and there's 32.15 troy ounces per kg so its worth about $1,273.14 per 1kg bar, total $12,731.40 - how's my maths is that about right ?
What's a normal premium for physical bars ? I'm thinking about buying it off her, we have always run seperate accounts for reasons that I'd rather not go into, so if I was to pay her a fair price what would that be ?
What would an average Gold and Silver dealer charge me to cash it in, say I keep it for a couple of years, how do I get out and how does that work ? i.e. how do they test the silver before they pay out the cash ?
Any help greatly appreciated.
Sold a 1kg bar recently on sella (free unlike trademe's $30-$40 fee) got 1355 for it I see now guys are asking 1400+ kg
Go to Goldmoney.com they have a calculator that shows the spot rate in your own currency-then check trade me to see if theres a premium being charged
Beagle
21-12-2010, 10:59 AM
Many thanks for those suggestions. Turns out my maths isn't too bad. Minting premium for bars is a minimum of 3% and that's after you beat them down so its spot plus 3% and therefore must be worth at least $1,300 per 1 KG bar.
I think there's plenty of potential for Silver to go higher from its current price and probably gold as well. The way country's are printing money with masses of quantatative easing and running massive deficits some precious metal in one's investment portfolio makes good common sense to me.
shasta
23-12-2010, 12:03 AM
Many thanks for those suggestions. Turns out my maths isn't too bad. Minting premium for bars is a minimum of 3% and that's after you beat them down so its spot plus 3% and therefore must be worth at least $1,300 per 1 KG bar.
I think there's plenty of potential for Silver to go higher from its current price and probably gold as well. The way country's are printing money with masses of quantatative easing and running massive deficits some precious metal in one's investment portfolio makes good common sense to me.
Silver article
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/investors-walk-a-silver-tightrope/story-e6frg9ex-1225974436569
Mentions AYN & ARD, two of the better silver plays on the ASX
JBmurc
23-12-2010, 03:14 PM
Silver article
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/investors-walk-a-silver-tightrope/story-e6frg9ex-1225974436569
Mentions AYN & ARD, two of the better silver plays on the ASX
too right ARDO are going really cheap 3c today someone doesn't want to make a large gain before mid next year
esp. as ARD stated the opts exercise price would be reduced to a likely 16c from 20c current ARD bids 18c -19c offers
JBmurc
27-12-2010, 08:22 PM
2011 will be the year Silver gets major attention too little for to many dollars looking for a safe home...thinking about buying more now $46
just dipped under US $29 oz :cool:
JBmurc
07-01-2011, 09:19 PM
just dipped under US $29 oz :cool:
Yeah I really believe we'll see the 2011 lows in the next couple weeks 24oz-26oz USD be a great time to load up .....will kick back into gear well before March IMHO 40oz+ this year....
my increasing Silver Bullion stash 1750oz
3141
Yeah I really believe we'll see the 2011 lows in the next couple weeks 24oz-26oz USD be a great time to load up .....will kick back into gear well before March IMHO 40oz+ this year....
my increasing Silver Bullion stash 1750oz
3141
nice pic, yeah would be nice to see silver that low again a great opportunity
sevangelou
18-01-2011, 11:04 AM
Reprinted from silver stock report (I have no affiliation with them, just a great newsletter):
Silver: From $30/oz to over $500 by 2020
(And from $500 to $5000 by 2030!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, January 12th, 2011
Silver: From $30/oz. to over $500 by 2020. In under a minute, I can tell you why that price must happen, and likely when. It seems to me that the public will one day wake up and start buying silver to protect from inflation. Thus, long before, say 10-20% of people buy silver, at least 1% of the American public will buy silver. We can calculate what might happen to the silver price when that happens.
The amount of money in US Banks is about $18 trillion. 1% of that is $180 billion.
Very little silver is left; it's mostly all been consumed, so most of what is available to buy is the annual new mine supply which is 700 million ounces.
$180 billion is $180,000 million. Divide that by 700 million, and we get an implied price of $257 per ounce. Do the math yourself. I'll wait.
But that price would mean that there is no newly mined silver left over for any industrial use, and that nobody else outside of the USA could buy any of the world's newly mined silver. Clearly that can't happen; those two groups would continue to buy silver, competing to buy, and driving up the price even more.
Thus, silver is very likely to be about $500/oz., by about the time that 1% of the American public wakes up and starts to buy silver. That will be the very beginning of the bull market in silver, when measured by "popular demand" -- and at that price, silver would still be very unpopular.
Just remember these key facts, and don't let anyone, or even yourself, trick you out of this developing bull market in silver. Don't try to time the peaks, don't wait for dips, just buy and hold real silver, not any kind of paper silver promise.
Zorrro
29-03-2011, 08:08 PM
WOW Not one Fx Posting here For now Since 18th Feb 2011 - so some six odd weeks.
Please any who want Give me a shout on Skype : zarif786 (UK) will gladly add you in my Skype room And also I have a noce Google room taht if you want you can join and we can have rapport and discussions and trade and ideas views sharig etc.
https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=en#!forum/zaktraders
Looking forward to seeing all those atht are interested in Trading Fx, Oil ( Us and Brent) Gold Silver ES FTSE DAX - to mention an few
rgds
Zorrro ( aka zarif)
one hell of a chart
up 800% in the decade3336
dumbass
17-04-2011, 10:39 AM
Hi peat , long time, hope your good and still making money.
Hows arco , seems like he is pretty quiet of late and his web site has closed down , hope hes good too.
Really missed the cut and thrust of trading but have been studying hard and the two dont mix well.
Will be getting back into but the trading will have to be adifferent style more hands off and longer time frame.
This kind of freaks me out as i will have to develop a totally different model, but as always there will be lots of opportunities.
peterthepipeater
21-04-2011, 08:29 AM
And it keeps on climbing - now at $45 (roughly $56NZD spot). Have you thought about the point that it is not the price of silver going up but the value perception of air dollars going down? Whatever dollar you can think of because they are all interconnected. This puts the picture into a different perspective. Is it expensive at this level? I do not think so. Will it correct at some stage? I hope so...
Zorrro
18-05-2011, 06:58 AM
Our Dedicated Chatroom is now Open
Go to: www.koolpips.com
When get there Click on : Chat Room
No Registration needed or passwords etc
Please use OPERA , Google CHROME , Mozilla Firefox as Internet explorer seems to be playing up ( old scripts)
rgds Zarif
a hammer the previous week, and now a bullish engulfing....
That most recent red candle was the hammer of my previous post.
The bullish engulfing then confirmed and we've now had two strong green weekly candles. Looks very much to me that the descending triangle has broken on the upside
eh Skol? 4227
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