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ananda77
31-10-2006, 08:14 AM
...do not know whether the Forex forum is the right place to discuss 'Silver v USD'

...as a matter of fact, going long on 'XAGUSD' with 1000 units at 12.23 was my first ever array into what I thought was the Forex Market

...the reason for this decision:

-annual growth of silver production: 3.4%
-annual growth of silver demand: 3.8%
-increasing industrial demand (present ~70% of silver production)
-recycling and diminishing available stockpiles have balanced primary deficit

...ANY guidance/help in this market welcomed

Kind Regards

slam
31-10-2006, 06:54 PM
Hi ananda77

Sorry, don't follow the Metals/Commodities.
arco may be able to shed some light on it when he is back on board.

Just thought I’d reply cause no one else had:)

gt

Slam

peat
31-10-2006, 07:58 PM
yeh I read your post ananda but neither do I follow metals. But I did see you're attending the CMC seminar 8th and 9th so I'll see you there!

ananda77
01-11-2006, 10:03 AM
...after the first day in the Forex Market ended this morning in a small profit, I will now try to get a better grip on how this market works...it's volatile alright...

...the new December contract is out and the range is 1227-1231

...there is a heavy resistance at 1225 and support at 1200, therefor no point holding on until there is clear technical evidence that 1225 is taken out

...from my fundamental point of view, the rarest metal on earth SILVER IS GOLD and consequently will start accumulating silver in dips

Thanks for your response slam and peat...

Kind Regards

arco
02-11-2006, 01:19 PM
Hi Ananda

Welcome to the wild side.................

I trade Gold and Silver.....and I like silver - alot!

IMO its quite suited to swing trading, but it can be a roller coaster ride. If you are using say Oanda to trade it you need to be cautious with entries because the spread is quite wide.

When I get back to normal I will try to post a chart will more comments.

Regards - arco

ananda77
02-11-2006, 04:03 PM
arco:

Thanks arco...

...are you trading the actual silver price or the futures market??

if the actual price, could you recommend a platform to trade with??? I tried Oanda, but could not find a silver/usd instrument???

CMC Markets provide XAGUSD trading silver futures in USD.

Kind Regards

arco
02-11-2006, 06:39 PM
Hello Ananda

I was origimally trading silver futures through Tricom, but currently I prefer the flexibilty I can obtain using Oanda.

FYI. To see XAG and XAU on your Oanda platform go to tools/user preferences/quotes/ - you can then add these commodites from the right hand side panel.

Trust that helps and look forward to hearing from you regarding your trades.

regards - arco

ananda77
27-11-2006, 08:24 AM
XAGUSD:

...it had to happen...

Kind Regards

arco
27-11-2006, 08:31 AM
Ananda77

Curious - What had to happen?

and how are your trades going?

regards - arco

ananda77
30-11-2006, 11:54 AM
quote:Originally posted by arco

Ananda77

Curious - What had to happen?

and how are your trades going?

regards - arco

Sorry arco, should have taken time to explain, but came back last Monday morning, checked positions and had to go out the door again for another couple of days.

What I meant was, that for the second time I went long in spot silver at 1311 (offer) after the dollar dived. Sell-stopped out over last weekend at 1343 -rather unfortunately really, but never mind.

Kind Regards

Looking forward to December silver volatility to take a position again.

peat
01-02-2007, 11:39 AM
This is actually GOLD , but I didnt wanna start a new thread. And I dont actually trade it but this sure looks like a hint to me!!

http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/9621/gold01022007yk7.jpg[/URL]

ananda77
02-02-2007, 10:41 AM
...looks good doesn't it

...currently long in XAU/AUD since the oz was 809.8 (offer) old and holding tight...

Kind Regards

peat
22-02-2007, 08:50 PM
up to 676! i think the fear of inflation is spreading more now.

peat
11-04-2007, 10:41 PM
heres another example of fib extensnion retracement on a very short time frame - too small to trade but I just watched this unfold and it seemed kinda perfect. went just past the 161 and came back to 100, then skipped the 261 (the law of alternation??) and hit 423 perfectly before retracing to 261.
http://img206.imageshack.us/img206/8816/gold5min11042007qq4.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

ananda77
12-04-2007, 10:15 AM
quote:Originally posted by peat

up to 676! i think the fear of inflation is spreading more now.


Hi peat,

...basically think, the Federal Reserve will let/has NO choice but to let the dollar collapse, despite Bernanke's inflation BLA...BLA...

...makes me wonder how far gold/silver will go

Kind Regards

arco
12-04-2007, 10:54 AM
Hi All

Silver appears to be printing an Ascending Triangle
(Continuation Pattern)

Target: Once a breakout occurs, the price projection
is found by measuring the widest distance of the pattern
and applying it to the resistance breakout.

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/silver_asc_tri.gif

Could be a nice ride..............

regards - arco

ananda77
12-04-2007, 01:51 PM
...yes, it looks gold/silver going to continue up

...here is an interesting article highlighting economic facts that point to a recessionary US scenario in 2007:

<center> Recession 2007</center>
By Stefan Karlsson

I have written in several mises.org articles — see here, here, and here — of the great imbalances of the US economy. Yet in all of my previous articles on the subject I have been unable to pinpoint when these imbalances will result in a bust.

One can never be completely sure of the future, of course, as one does not have full information about all factors shaping future events. Thus, it is possible that this prediction will go wrong if the US experiences some future positive shock, such as for example a significant decline in oil prices. Australia seemed poised for a recession in 2005 after its housing market busted, but this was averted as the prices of Australia's commodity exports soared because of increased demand from China.

However, barring such an unexpected positive shock, it seems increasingly clear that we will see a US recession this year. The main reason for this is that the housing bubble that fueled the recovery of the last few years has essentially burst.

While mortgage debt continues to climb, albeit at a slower rate than before, and while housing prices have flattened rather than declined so far, other housing market indicators point to a housing recession. New home sales have reached multi-year lows and the inventory of unsold homes reached multi-year highs. Meanwhile, residential investment has declined significantly from its peak in late 2005. From 6.3% of GDP in the third quarter of 2005 to 5.3% in the fourth quarter of 2006. However, that is still above the 4% average of the 1980s and 1990s, and also significantly above the 3.3–3.4% level of the recessions of 1982 and 1991.

So far, the economy has seemingly handled this fairly well and experienced what one might call a "soft landing," with growth being slow but still well above zero. Yet there are increasing signs that the worst is yet to come. Much of the housing bubble was financed by so-called subprime mortgages, mortgages to people with a low credit rating. Subprime mortgages were encouraged greatly by the government, with the Federal Reserve providing a cheap source of credit and with Bush encouraging it as part of the "ownership society" that he envisioned. But after the Fed was forced to raise interest rates again, and as the introductory teaser offers expired, the cost of borrowing for the subprime borrowers increased sharply. And as subprime lenders almost by definition have weak personal finances, many have proven unable to handle that.

And so we now see how the default rate has increased sharply. This will mean two things: first, new subprime loans will decline sharply. So far this year, subprime loans have declined 37% from last year.

This will not only mean lower demand for new houses, but also increased supply as an increasing number of subprime borrowers are forced to leave their homes. This fact, as well as the fact that construction spending is still at historically high levels means that it is likely to decline a lot more. And if this causes outright decline in housing prices, it will have a very adverse effect on consumer spending. The household savings rate was -1.2% in January and February.[3] Meanwhile, despite record high asset valuation, the household debt to asset ratio reached record levels last year, as did the mortgage debt to housing value which hit a record high of 47% in the fourth quarter of 2006.[4] Looking beyond the aggregate number, you can see that 27% of all homeowners have less than 20% equity (more than 80% mortgage debt) in their homes and 16% have less than 10% equity, making them highly vulnerable to a fall in prices.

All of this implies that the current spending pattern is dependent upon a continued rapid increase in asset prices, from levels which are historically already extremely high. Household real estate values, which in my first article on the sub

arco
12-04-2007, 03:26 PM
Thanks for that info Ananda

FYI Gold is supported by the bullish cloud and IMO
is still a buy (even on any move down to the black
'support' line currently situated @ 652)

http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/gold_ichii.gif

regards - arco

arco
27-06-2007, 06:24 PM
Silver chart looks similar to gold.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v54/arcoshares/062707BF-1.gif

regards - arco

ananda77
29-06-2007, 10:28 AM
arco:

...bought more silver right in the dip and there is a lot more cash ready to be 'silvered'

...and being highly amused and motivated by Economic Whacko Theory, keep on generating cash via the stockmarket with the strictest 24/7 Marketwatch in place

Kind Regards as always and may we all be successful

arco
29-06-2007, 01:08 PM
Hi Ananda

Always a possibility Silver could still go a bit
lower into the box areas IMO, and give you a chance to top up.

GL - arco

ananda77
29-06-2007, 01:43 PM
...actually arco, although history might or might not repeat itself, there is an interesting article here:

http://investmentscore.com/editorials/what_is_happening

Kind Regards

Craig3215
29-06-2007, 07:00 PM
Hi all,

I've been checking out posts here for a while, arco brought my attention to the site from detachedtrader.com which seems to be inactive now... i've been trying to register to st since and have been unsuccessful until now... anyway thanks to all your prior posts as they have brought my attention to a couple money making opportunities... well as far as silver goes, i don't really trade it but looking at the chart i would go with arco's recommendation but if it doesn't get to that point i would then wait for it to break back through the up trend support line and then come back and test to hop in... looking at the last chart in the article that ananda posted this would be november of 05... i'm gonna try to post the chart but i don't think its gonna work
http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/silver.jpg

arco
29-06-2007, 08:26 PM
Hi Craig

I use photobucket.com for images now...it seems far easier
than imageshack.

I'm interested to see your chart....so trust you will try again
(you can always edit on the old post).

GT - arco

ananda77
02-07-2007, 09:21 AM
...by the way, arco, I do not doubt your charting wisdom, but I never rule out a "shake out" (momentum) scenario when price hits an important trendline...and there is ALWAYS a very good chance, that immediate recovery trading allows for the setting of positive stop-loss levels...

[-increase in US M3 supply: &gt;10%/year
-increase in India/China M3 supply: near 20%/year
-since 1979, the "purchasing power" of the USD declined 73%]

How long will this 'Inflation Game' go on?? Do not know and neither do I care! However, I do know, it's at the 'war level' now. I do not like it, but what can I do??? Well, not much, but my consumption level is next to ZERO

Kind Regards

arco
02-07-2007, 12:20 PM
Hi Ananda/All

A few points to ponder when viewing the Silver chart.

1. The blue box is a Gartley target using harmonic calculations to construct the box.

2. The red box only comes into play if the action gives a confirmed reversal pattern to form a bullish Butterfly. If/when that happens targets can be calculated.

ONE MAIN POINT TO REMEMBER.

The potential bullish (red) Butterfly could conceivably terminate at the underside of the slotted uptrend line. Reason being the uptrend support (line) has been broken and as such may now form resistance.

Silver is not out of danger until that line has been reconquered.

GT - arco

ananda77
19-07-2007, 10:11 AM
...silver's uptrend...
<center>http://img.villagephotos.com/p/2004-12/905046/LongtermSilver.gif</center>

Kind Regards

arco
07-09-2007, 09:38 PM
Updating the silver chart. (See chart - post 19)

The price reached the Butterfly PRZ as posted in June, and is heading north again. It would now be nice to see the action breaking back above the old up-trend (slatted) line.

.....Keep stashing it away.......preferable in bars to reduce the availability and force the price even further....LOL

rgds - arco

peat
09-09-2007, 08:12 PM
this guys target is a little higher!

http://news.silverseek.com/GoldIsMoney/1186061730.php


$8000 Silver in 15 Years


MR: Let me start off by asking you why you insist that silver is so undervalued?

JH: Going back a century, virtually every major country in the world was using gold and silver as currency. Today, no country uses either metal as currency, yet gold has been hoarded by the central banks of the world, but not silver. In all of history nearly 5.0 bilion ozs. (155,000 tonnes) of gold have been mined with over 90% of that gold still existing. On the other hand, of the total 45 billion ounces of silver ever mined, about 9% remains, the rest has been consumed. Doing the math, the total value of existing gold equals about $3.3 trillion, yet for silver only $52 billion!. At the end of World War-2, total known stocks of silver amounted to about 10 billion ounces, with the U.S. government holding 4 billion ounces. Now, total stocks are down to well under one billion ounces, a reduction of about 95%, with the U.S. government's stockpile virtually gone. Silver's growing use in electronics since WW-2 has helped to dwindle those once-huge silver supplies. In this regard, looking to the future of China and other once-underdeveloped nations, their use of silver should expand greatly as their populations prosper and they join the "consumer age."



MR: How much investible silver exists?

JH: The vast majority of the estimated existing 4.0 billion ozs. of silver is in the form of jewelry, flatware, tableware, etc. The world consumes more silver annually --about 900 million ozs.-- than is mined each year, which is about 650 million ozs., the difference is made up by scrap recycling. What's left for investment amounts to some 300-600 million ounces which includes all pre-1965 dated silver coins and all the various silver medallions, bars and ingots made for investors.

peat
09-09-2007, 10:07 PM
silver is actually lagging at this stage.... gold having broken into new highs fri nite.
so the question is does that make it a better buy i.e it should catch up... or that it is dissociating from gold.

peat
10-09-2007, 11:40 AM
NZMINT quoted a 16&#37; markup (above spot) on buying silver bars !!!!
not quite sure how it can work trading in the real thing with such massive spreads , and he said theres not much demand for them esp the 5kg bars and they wont necessarily buy them back off you - even the 1 kg bars. you can be sure they wouldnt buy them if the price really rocketed.
coins seem a better option but not at the prices listed on nzmint tho I'm seeing prices on 1oz coins a lot closer to spot price on trademe... tho these auctions havent actually completed yet. so yeh just investigating.

oh and heres another silver bug arguing why it is undervalued

http://www.investmentrarities.com/10-24-06.html

arco
10-09-2007, 05:12 PM
Peat

Try Johnson Matthey (originally AGR or AMR?) in AKL.
Not sure what they charge over spot for silver/gold bars.

regds - arco

peat
12-09-2007, 08:59 AM
Newcrest Mining said its planned restructure will lower gearing
and give it the capacity to chase larger acquisitions if
opportunities arise. Newcrest announced on Monday plans for a
$2bn equity raising to fund the close out of its gold hedge book.
Managing Director Ian Smith said the restructure would lower
gearing to 15% from 49% and allow Newcrest to chase larger
takeover targets if it decides it wants to. "If there was a
particularly interesting deal that came along then we could
consider seriously a M&A type exercise of a more mature
profile," he said. "With the current restrictions we have around
our capital structure we really couldn't pursue anything of a
sizable nature." Smith said the restructure would also make
Newcrest a more attractive takeover target but it was
impossible to say if this would lead to any activity. Newcrest has
already bought 2.3m ounces of gold as it moves to close out its
gold hedging, and said it plans to buy another 1.7m ounces over
the next 12 months to complete the process.

ananda77
12-09-2007, 10:37 AM
...good news all around for gold/silver due to the Kamikaze interest rate policy of the Fed

...maybe it is all part of the FED'S strategy: NAFTA - AMERO

Kind Regards

(these coins are available in gold/silver and not illegal until they ??become?? an official currency unit - then these coins would be counterfeit money - now does that make your collector's heart beat faster???

peat
12-09-2007, 10:59 AM
prices for silver oz coins are tending to the NZ$30 or more currently on trademe. even allowing for possible collectability or aesthetic value of the coins tis a heck of a premium above the spot rate, and even ingots are priced at those levels per oz too.

ScrappyO
14-09-2007, 09:08 PM
[QUOTE=ananda77;164561]...good news all around for gold/silver due to the Kamikaze interest rate policy of the Fed

...maybe it is all part of the FED'S strategy: NAFTA - AMERO

Kind Regards

Ananda77 Do you Reckon the fall of the U.S dollar might coincide with the Amero being pushed into circulation in 2010. The Fed seem to be working towards this target.

arco
21-09-2007, 12:06 PM
IN AN unusual approach to research and development, Barrick Gold offered a $US10 million ($11.6 million) prize on Wednesday to any scientist, researcher or inventor who can increase the amount of silver the company recovers from a mine in Argentina.

Gold and silver extraction, which generally involves trickling diluted cyanide over crushed rock, can cause serious environmental problems. But Barrick's decision to stake a prize for a new process comes from its frustration at recovering only 6.7 per cent of the silver in its Veladero mine, compared to an 80 per cent rate for its gold.

After several alternative techniques for removing the silver proved either unsuccessful or financially unfeasible, Gregory Wilkins, Barrick's chief executive and president, said the company thought it needed a broader approach.

"This is a way to go out to the global scientific community to focus that intellectual horsepower," Mr Wilkins said from the company's head office in Toronto. "Rather than limit the problem to a very small R&D staff, we have turned our R&D group into managers of research."

The competition's winner, if there is one, will probably receive more than $US10 million. Mr Wilkins said that Barrick, the world's largest goldminer, would help finance research proposals with potential. If any prove successful, the prize will be an additional payment.

Finding an answer will not be easy. Cyanide leaching removes very little silver from the open pit mine's ore because, unlike its gold deposits, the silver is encapsulated in silica.

"Silica is a pretty tough material," said William Bawden, who teaches mine engineering at the University of Toronto. "If you're going to attack this, you're going to need to pull together different groups of people who probably had nothing to do with mining before."

The company posted detailed information about the mine and the silver problem at a website: www.unlockthevalue.com. As submissions come in, Mr Wilkins said he expected the company's review committee to "filter out the crazy stuff pretty quickly".

Barrick is not the first Canadian mining company to run such a contest.

In 2000 Goldcorp posted the geological data for a poorly performing goldmine in Ontario and offered $US500,000 in prizes for determining drill sites that could improve the mine's yield. The competition discovered sites that had not been identified by the company.

With that information, the mine has gone from producing 50,000 ounces of gold a year to 500,000 ounces.

The New York Times

peat
21-09-2007, 01:15 PM
I now have 7oz's of silver in coins. So yeh am long lol.

arco
21-09-2007, 01:36 PM
Hi Peat

I was told recently there is a company called Auckland Bullion, but I havent managed to track them down yet.

However, I did find this which looks quite interesting.

http://www.nzsilver.com/

rgds - arco

peat
21-09-2007, 06:24 PM
yes I've been using NZSilver for their charts when I dont want to run MarketMaker the Hog. but I've been finding cheaper coins on Trademe than those retail prices on nzsilver or nzmint.

arco
21-09-2007, 08:55 PM
Peat

How do the prices compare to the spot rate?

rgds - arco

peat
21-09-2007, 09:50 PM
prices for silver oz coins are tending to the NZ$30 or more currently on trademe. even allowing for possible collectability or aesthetic value of the coins tis a heck of a premium above the spot rate, and even ingots are priced at those levels per oz too.
as i said not well - there are some offers of prices a bit closer eg 24$ oz for a few k worth , thats probably more the way to go.

but are'nt they purty

http://images.trademe.co.nz/photoserver/med/21/43175821.jpg USA


http://images.trademe.co.nz/photoserver/med/55/46835755.jpg Mexican

peat
01-10-2007, 11:39 AM
10kg of silver here - thats 352.74 oz's for $6900 so thats NZ 19.50 an oz
closest I've seen to spot prices...
using current US spot price and current NZD rate - silver is NZD18.11 at the mo.


http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=120257847

auction closing very soon no bids tho.

arco
01-10-2007, 11:59 AM
HI Peat

Not sure what the current fabrication cost is, but that size bar can be bought from Auckland Bullion traders at spot + fabrication.

rgds - arco

Alec
11-10-2007, 08:27 PM
Hi Peat,

That 10 kg on TM @ $6900nz would have been $21.46nz / oz which represent an 18.5 % markup over spot

That price of $19.50nz is calculated in avoirdupois not troy oz (3 gm diff / oz) - spot price is in troy.

That markup is higher than the buy spread from the local NZ bullion dealers for 1kg ingots. Trading spread in NZ has always been aggressive for physical.

You and other investors here are probably already aware, and from my experience with trading silver is, you have to fully understand the fundamentals. Don’t be driven by greed or wanting to make quick bucks.

Physical is a long term investment if you want to make the low risk BIG gains.
Day trading futures / shorts / leverage = mega high risk / high stress but also can have good returns.

Shorting on comex is price manipulation and it will end – this will involve traders not being able to cover.

Silver has the highest concentrated short position – double of any other commodity and the CFTC and NYMEX continue to evade this. Net short position are at a near-record 208,000 contracts that’s 20.8 million oz of non existent silver.

Silver is the only bulk tradable commodity that is also a rarity and has strategic industrial importance. Basically as of now, there is more physical gold available that silver above ground. “but what about the slow down in use for photography ? .etc” people ask – silver is being used in greater amounts for electronics than ever before.

Personally for me, I believe just buying precision made, well known 1 oz bullion products, e.g. Silver maples/ Eagles / Onza’s and 1 oz ingots represent the easiest and lowest risk option at a very small ongoing outlay – this will not effect your other day trading affairs that you want to participate in. It is a longer term investment and 1 oz items are far easier to sell when the price does “equalize” - The higher the price = more demand = easier to sell.

1 oz items always carry the highest premium that is why they are always well above spot.
When you compare to gold (e.g. on Ebay) you will always see thousands of 1 oz gold items but not 1kg gold ingots. That will be the same with silver.

Quoted by Ted Butler, "Manipulation has created what I believe is the investment opportunity of a lifetime." ; "There is a simple and understandable way to participate, namely, buy real silver. There are no sophisticated strategies, critical timing decisions, high risk leverage or luck. It’s just common sense. Buy silver before the manipulation ends”

peat
11-10-2007, 09:07 PM
yes its an interesting theory that of silver 'manipulation'. I'm not averse to building a holding over time...have bought a couple more oz's and will continue to buy more esp if there is any noticeable dip. The coins really do have an aesthetic value as well which means they seem a better buy when priced the same as the ingots. But I could just be kidding myself on that.
Theres seems to be healthy supplies of the silver fern NZ bullion coin on the market just above the $25/coin level tho.Eagles onza's and the phoenix coin seem to command a premium over the NZ product. But at the bullion level they all contain the same ASW (actual silver weight).

Its actually sparked the germ of an interest in nuismatics as well, and I've bought a few other actual currency coins - mainly silver content ones ;+)

On that theme I requested and received some freely available material from the RBNZ and they've sent me :
a book on NZ currency (available here in PDF) http://www.rbnz.govt.nz/currency/money/explaining_currency.pdf

and a poster graphing the Kiwi over 20 years since the float,
and a poster of the current notes and coins. School project stuff haha but its interesting.

Alec
12-10-2007, 10:04 PM
Another safe option for buying silver at very low spread is through the Perth mint with their certificate program. Minimum investment $5000AUS. Easy to sell or part sell or convert to physical if you want. I hold some of these for my personal investment – buying / selling is just a phone call away.

If you buy silver ferns – go direct to the N Z Mint, price breaks are good the more you purchase – (will be the cheapest in NZ for 1 oz items in bulk)

I run a website, nzsilver.com in my spare time / as a hobby – my prices are higher, I import all from the US – I do deals on larger amounts but singles and lots of 10 always command a higher premium. It’s fun and pays for itself and any extra I just put back into more stock.

I did try some buying / and selling on Barclays EFT / SLV trust. You really need direct access to it + and a US bank account.

I am a self confessed silver bug and made the decision to do the silver thing a while back when silver was below 6 US an oz. I started with PM certs, it was probably the best investment I made at the time and basically ended up with many Kg’s of free silver. I believe it’s a no loose scenario. Like Butler and Co say “it’s the investment opportunity of a life time.” And it really is – I’m not sure if silver will go to 8000 as Jason H suggests but I’m convinced it will reach the mid hundreds in the not to distant future. It is a market that can be cornered so easily and the higher the price goes the more people will want in as it will be seen as more of an investment class asset – this is when it will really take off - bad luck for anyone holding futures as manipulation will end fast - no more roll over’s - it will be time to deliver. Many of my fellow investors think I’m crazy but I’m sure I will get the last laugh.

One thing for sure … The US dollar is doomed

peat
15-10-2007, 10:20 PM
http://www.nzsilver.com provided the link to an interesting report on silver demand and production

http://www.silverinstitute.org/publications/wss07sum.pdf

interesting read thx Alec

Alec
27-10-2007, 07:49 PM
Hi folks, I hope everyone has had a great week. I have.

Silver and gold have had strong support this week, Silver at $14.26, Gold the highest in 25 years, The US dollar having “big issues” down to 77 on the index, its basically becoming junk. An analyst on Bloomberg was saying that the USD is no longer the reserve currency !!!.

I believe we may see some profit taking of commodities before Christmas, but this will only strengthen the foundation for the next move. It will be a good time to buy. It all depends on what happens to US interest rates over the next week or so.

I was amazed to read Ted Butlers latest commentary entitled “Money for nothing”. http://www.investmentrarities.com/10-23-07.html
It talked about a class-action case related to Morgan Stanley’s (MS) precious metal storage policy and cost. How can MS charge storage fees when there is no physical metal ? It looks to only be on paper. As talked about, MS is not the only financial institution doing this. Compounded, we are talking a short position of over a billion oz’s of investors money tied up in ‘paper’ silver. What happens when silver levels to the correct and true price, Investors will want their money or delivery of the silver, what will these institution like MS do ?. One things for sure, it will not effect me as I have physical stored away in bank vault. The Long positions on comex will not even cover 10% of these shorts – that can only mean one thing – silver WILL go up. And we are talking 100’s of dollars probably more. This will be the ruin of many a financial institution.

The only real great thing about the silver manipulation that is happening is that it gives you the great opportunity to purchase silver at super discounted rates.

And on another note, I always hear people whining about bullion coins being a few dollars more that spot price etc. All you have to do is buy a few coins every month for the next couple of years, put them away – give or take 5 to 10 year these coins will worth a great deal more than you purchased them for, so paying any where between $24 to $30 NZD a oz is a bargain (Silver @ 13.8 to 14.5 USD an oz). Imported products such as Eagles and Maples will always carry a higher premium that NZ products. When it comes for the time to sell, Eagles and Maples also very easy to sell on the international market as they are a precision made well known item.

You are probably thinking – “who is this crazy guy, talking about silver like that ?”, I’m just going on my followings of the market news and research I have made over the last few years. The more you read, the more knowledge you will gain about Silver and its fundamentals. Some good links here at http://www.nzsilver.com/links.html

With the US dollar sliding down the index, You even got to look at the NZ currency devaluing over the last couple of decades – I was flipping a new 10c coin in the air at my desk the other day, it got me thinking 20 to 30 years back a 1 cent coin would buy what a 10 cent coin buys today. I always go on the aniseed ball theory, I use to get 3 for a cent in the 70’s. Now I can only get 2 for 10 cents ?. All they have done is taken a 1 cent coin and added an extra 0 and called it a ten but the crazy thing is it doesn’t even have the buying power of my 1 cent from the 70’s !! , so if trends continue, the 10 cent coin of today, 30 year down the track will have the buying power of 1 dollar and with the aniseed ball theory, I will only get 1 AB !!! boohoo. Silver will not be 14USD an oz either. - Just something to think about.

Peat thanks for the info on the RBNZ, I have also requested the material from them for my eldest – he has a big interest.

Ciao for now,
Alec
www.nzsilver.com

peat
08-11-2007, 09:46 AM
Silver has now touched over $US16 tho retraced a bit today

I'm thinking that the metals breakout from an 18th month consolidation has now confirmed itself and tho of course it may test again this is proof that in the medium run silver will see $20 or more. You can see how I arrive at that figure
http://img216.imageshack.us/img216/8928/silverdaily08112007tu7.jpg (http://imageshack.us)



This is what I think when I look at the silverchart anyhow.
Kinda like the breakout I mentioned with the Ozzie back in the low 80's.


One for the Trends thread DA. Those Saxobank predictions were well true. One to keep an eye on.

ananda77
08-11-2007, 06:39 PM
peat:

...Silver US$ 25.00 - Gold US$ 900.00...there is still a huge mountain of floating subprime trash -even AAA/AAA+ tranches of debt loosing value by the minute- unaccounted for and waiting to be written off

...wait for Bernankes next interest rate $dust

Kind Regards

Alec
11-11-2007, 09:57 PM
Happy weekend all,

I presume silver will break $20 by Xmas / Jan-Feb 08, we may also see some profit taking over this time but I expect this will be absorbed by seasonal buyers + increased investment buying. The next few months in the season are usually the strongest for silver.

It was interesting to watch the silver market this week. There is strong support in the $15 to $16 dollar range. Personally, I find it hard to analyze the silver market at the moment as there are just too many intangibles (non conventional analysis). Although it appears to be predictable to an extent, and the rise in silver is partly attributed towards the devaluing the fiat US dollar ponzi scheme + investor buying, (Credit bubble = Inflation = higher silver prices) As silver has still been gaining in value across the board in most currencies shows that we are in a classic secular silver bull market in stage 2 with stage 1 overlap.

1. Currency devaluation, 2. Investment demand, 3. Panic speculative mania

Even with silver at 15 to 20 an oz - it is at a super discounted rate, it hasn't really started! ($100 / oz, still cheap I say!!.) Silver always shines at the end - keep an eye on the Silver gold / ratio. The balance will be somewhere between 10 / 20 to 1. At this time gold may be 2000 to 3000 / oz. (in the long term) When silver reaches this level, you can be sure that the dealer shorts (futures / options) will be overrun which will fuel the market like throwing petrol on a fire (please do not try this at home !!). Currently recorded in the last COT report, there are 202422 open futures contracts for silver. How can that be? Each contract is 5000 oz’s, all up, that’s 1012110000 oz of silver. Where is the physical, sure there may be a few hundred million oz’s floating around in Warehouses here and there. But the bottom line is someone is going to have to buy physical to cover!!!. Move over credit bubble.

Yes - Citibank, 11 billion dollar write down last week, there goes this years profit. With a proportional holding of over a trillion tied up in derivatives based around sub prime exotic credit bundles. When those babies spit the dummy – will Citibank along with many other big hitters remain solvent? Time will tell…. I believe the worst is far from over. Bernanke admits that the economy will slow "noticeably" in the fourth quarter (hello, didn’t this start happing some time ago, talk about sweat the asset) He is holding fast to his optimistic predictions of an improving U.S. economy early next year. In reality, they have no idea where the economy is, don't let yourself be fooled by Ben and friends, these are the same heads who said the sub prime mess wouldn't have a noticeable impact on the U.S. economy. He had better crank up the helicopter again and get that new line of printing presses rolling!!!.

(note : I am just a "backyard" investor / silver bug - what I say and write should not necessarily be taken as investment advice !!)

Have a good week all.
reg Alec.
http://www.nzsilver.com

ananda77
16-11-2007, 07:39 PM
... thought this might interest a few people;

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article2759.html

Kind Regards and long in Silver and Gold

Alec
19-11-2007, 08:43 PM
That was a very interesting read (Elliott Wave Theory) - according to this article, I can get truck loads more physical silver at super discounted rates for a couple of years (phew)

Silver may go sideways but slowly follow the current trend until 201X. It is also probable that we will see a bit of a correction / sell off coming up, maybe after the silver season (march / may 08) - Either way, I would expect to see the strongest volatility over the next few months. In looking at the overall trend, we should see higher highs and higher lows.

http://www.nzsilver.com/images/5year_silver.JPG

Back to the Elliott Wave Theory, so according to this, silver may go sideways or even down until 201X and then is will really take off when the USD gives its last gasp. It gives us a couple more years to stock up on sub 20 to 40 silver. In the past, it has been hard to put a date to when silver will take off, it could be anything from a couple of years to 5 or even 10 – but the more I read, it looks to be on the couple of years side of the scale.

Until my next lot of blabber, have a great week all and it is good to see summer is here at last.

reg Alec

www.nzsilver.com

Alec
19-11-2007, 09:14 PM
Elliot wave applied to silver as explained by Roland Watson, The Silver Analyst

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1195428258.php

peat
23-11-2007, 09:44 PM
Heres a colourful view of Silver with the ADX and the Awesome Oscillator and RSI. In some ways not a great buy at these levels - but would become so in the mid 13's. One should be looking for more of a retracement from the recent strong gains so I'm prepared for those levels to occur and continue accumulation.
ADX has not broken its positive signal tho Awesome needs to turn. RSI is bouncing along the middle at present after having coming off overbought. Although one always like prices to go up in some ways dips are good - like the one we just had in the last few minutes really.

http://img135.imageshack.us/img135/7754/xagusddailyadx23112007bx2.th.jpg (http://img135.imageshack.us/my.php?image=xagusddailyadx23112007bx2.jpg)

Ish
25-11-2007, 12:57 PM
Hi guys, I have a question.

I have accumulated a decent holding of physical silver as a longish term hold.

What would be the best way to sell it (and not loose too much on the spread) when the time comes?

arco
26-11-2007, 08:03 PM
Ish

I dont know anyone in the S.I

Perhaps call NZ Mint for a price/info.

http://www.newzealandmint.com/nzmint.mv?page=bullion_products

rgds - arco

Alec
26-11-2007, 10:01 PM
Hi, Along with NZMint, you can also try Morris and Watson or AGR Matthey (both in Auckland) there is also New Zealand bullion recovery services (they have a branch in CHCH last time I checked)

(Google search or Yellow Pages for any of the above)

Depending on who issued / assayed your silver can effect the buyer spread in NZ. You could also export to Australia if required. There are numerous big refiners over there that will buy.

It is hard to say what will happen when silver does shine its true value. Will bigger NZ buyers keep buying ?. who knows. For example, and hypothetically speaking if silver peaks like it did in the 80’s and at an inflation adjusted price – we could easily be looking at anywhere between 200 to 500 and oz. If you have 1 Kg ingots @ 500 / oz that $16K. The spread will not matter as it will be so small compared to what you are selling at / profit you are taking. One problem is if silver does goes to this price, you can only really easily sell 1kg + items to bigger refineries as they have the buying power. (How many 1 kg gold ingots do you see on trademe or ebay ? nil) That is one of he reasons I mainly collect Maples and Eagles, they are both an internationally well know, precision struck 1 troy oz item. There are many more big international buying houses that buy these coins. A 1 oz coin is easier to buy / move at a few hundred an oz. When the time comes, I will be organizing a buy pool to help the masses move their silver coins ( through www.nzsilver.com)

Also remember, what pushes the price up ? buying mania. More people will see silver as an investment class asset + industrial stock piling, so in theory it should be very easy to sell regardless.

I hope this helps.

Reg Alec

peat
27-12-2007, 06:55 AM
hey craig
I was just about to post something on the metals too....

while gold was doing a classic compression/consolidation and as you say appears to have broken out now , Silver was doiing a Bullish 3 drives

Craig3215
27-12-2007, 08:18 AM
hey peat,

Bullish three drives formation thats a new one for me, i guess you learn something new everyday thanks for that, platinum also looking pretty good

Alec
27-12-2007, 03:06 PM
Hi silver bugs, here is my 2 bits for what they are worth.

I say Forget the technicals, they mean little anymore in this manipulated fiat ponzi dollar doctored market. Psychology has taken over. You do not really know when Ben, GS and ECB friends are going to dump another few billion in junk paper onto the open cash market. e.g. if Ben, GS and ECB friends lollie scramble another couple hundred billion, you will see metal prices react as you would expect. ( TAF's & ECB 1/2 trillion) It really isn't liquidity though but rather a book entry on the balance sheet. Take Wiemar Germany, circa 1923. As that country's monetary problems worsened, the central bank (Reichsbank), in the delusional thinking of that day, helicoptered one-half trillion of Reichsmarks to provide liquidity. What happened next ? I think we all know, The only difference, today this is on a global scale.

1. These months leading through to March are the buying season for silver so you would expect to see some heavy buying.
2. Fiat ponzi dollar doctoring by Ben, GS and ECB friends are having a big but not permanent effect (like petrol on a fire).
3. How solvent are the banks ??
4. Current financial technicals have little meaning as there is no real measure to compare with.
5. Open contracts 21st Dec 07 (Silver futures and options) = 184,158 X 5000 = 920,790,000 oz of paper silver. These will eventually unwind just like the credit bubble derivatives are starting to do now.
6. S&P 500 Annual ROI = 4.96&#37;
S&P 500 close on 12/27/06: 1426.84
S&P 500 close on 12/26/07: 1497.66

compared to iShares Silver Trust (SLV)
YTD Return Market Price @ 21/12/2007 = %12.43

All I can say is if you have the spare capital and can wait a year or three - buy and hold physical. The price starts bouncing around 1 dollar or 2 / oz and everybody gets excited. This is nothing compared to what will come. (yeah yeah - laugh it up) Remember – in 1980, a $1K face value bag of .90 silver (approx 720 oz of .999 silver) coins could buy a house (4 bedroom, &#188; acre) with change.

(NOTE : I am not an investment advisor but I believe it will be beneficial to have a percentage or your investment in silver)
reg Alec @ NZSilver

ananda77
30-12-2007, 07:20 PM
...with the ongoing enormous increase in the amount of paper money in mind (and a pick up in inflation in just a few months time -A SURE BET-), a study by Peter Millar in 2006:

""The Relevance and Importance of Gold in the World Monetary System"

concluded that a 'Seven-fold increase in gold [is] needed to avert debt depression'

excerpts: "In the second half of the 20th century we saw a repeat of the first three phases of the same cycle:

"-- Phase 1: Stability from 1944 to 1968 under a gold standard.

"-- Phase 2: Inflation from 1968 to 1981, which caused and justified another buildup of debt.

"-- Phase 3: Disinflation from 1981 until the end of the 20th century, and maybe to the present.

"However, it appears that Phase 4 (instability and ultimately deflation due to excessive debt) may have started. If so, Phase 5 (revaluation of the gold price to raise the monetary value of the world monetary base and hence reduce the burden of debt) becomes likely or inevitable. The extent of that revaluation would need to be major according to our calculations, probably by a factor of at least seven times, possibly up to 20 times the current price of gold."

read the full study here: http://www.gata.org/node/4843

Kind Regards

ananda77
30-01-2008, 06:30 PM
...I still remember when silver could be bought around US$12.00 and now this:

http://news.silverseek.com/TedButler/1201624211.php

Kind Regards

peat
01-02-2008, 05:50 AM
over this short time frame it appears that silver is outperforming the other metal.

Craig3215
01-02-2008, 08:14 PM
Looks like a cup and handle on the daily chart will try to get a chart up but the beginning of the cup is on nov 5 end of cup at jan 13 handle from 13th to 22nd broke out of handle on 23rd and broke out of resistance on the 29th

peat
01-02-2008, 09:15 PM
yes I see what you mean Craig and it would appear to be working. Silver just had a strong run up , and as I pointed out earlier gold was not participating.
Allow me to post a pic of the cup and handle for you.

Craig3215
02-02-2008, 01:01 AM
Thanks for that Peat... yeah its off to a good start so far... love your new avatar!

peat
27-02-2008, 06:39 AM
over this short time frame it appears that silver is outperforming the other metal.
definite outperformance over this whole month now - the gold silver ratio has fallen from 56.4 to 52.4 this year.

I have some trades set to take at $US19 but am getting greedier, what if Theodore Butler is right?

peat
27-02-2008, 01:25 PM
dont see many whole dollar days in Silver !!
So have closed a small percentage of the holding at $19. Thats 30% in 3 months so cant complain.

Alec
27-02-2008, 09:46 PM
being the silver bug i am - I see butler as gospel. It is just a matter of time before the big shorts will have to close out. Its just like the credit crunch really, how can you have paper / electronic silver, create derivatives like "silver certificates" from this then porn them of to investors who think they are getting certificates backed by real silver ??..
......
I see this as a flash back and we are in 1972/3, silver is $2 / oz , in a few years it went to $50 /oz. So in comparison, its $19 now and in a few year will it go to $500 ?? who knows.. I really think we will see not $1 or $2 dollar days but $10 or $20 dollar days in the future (going up).


http://www.investmentrarities.com/02-26-08.html

http://www.24hgold.com/article.aspx?langue=en&articleid=227358_More_Solid_Gains_for_the_Precious _Metals_James_Turk

regards Alec @ nzsilver

peat
07-03-2008, 09:34 AM
closed another small lot at 21

will buy back at some stage should a good opportunity present itself.

I see that the oz coins on trademe are reflecting the increased prices and that theres not that many sellers as there was but quite a few more sellers of kg's have come out.

wonder if the big thou/oz will be a resistance level for gold.

lakedaemonian
21-03-2008, 08:23 AM
silver spot 16.71

huge hit over the last few days

time to back up the truck(in my opinion)

peat
21-03-2008, 08:27 AM
back up the truck to reload ? or dump?
glad I took some profits
parabolic shapes on a graph have a habit of reversing

arco
21-03-2008, 09:36 AM
Morning Peat

Load up IMO.

The pattern forming now looks like a potential GArtley
or other harmonic pattern.

I'm looking for a signal at a PRZ circa 1600-1670

arco

lakedaemonian
21-03-2008, 09:59 AM
back up the truck to reload ? or dump?
glad I took some profits
parabolic shapes on a graph have a habit of reversing

Reload!

Although i'm a long-term holder, not trader.

It will further increase my dollar cost average....but that was a big hit on silver which i think presents a great buying opportunity for long-term holders.

I will keep buying on further weakness.

peat
21-03-2008, 06:07 PM
The pattern forming now looks like a potential GArtley
or other harmonic pattern.
arco

As in X = 13.6 Dec 13th , A 21.34 , with B a 618 retracement at 16.6. and BC CD still to go?

arco
21-03-2008, 07:02 PM
Peat

The waves are not very pronounced but
I've worked off a number of pivots, & was
looking at specifically 'X' at 22/1 (Gartley/Bat),
15/2 (BF). Current print would be 'D' zone

I classed the double top area as the 'A' & 'C' leg,
because on differing contracts they vary slightly.

(Based on MS charts)

arco

peat
25-03-2008, 11:47 AM
well yeh I am looking for opportunities to buy more but these are the concerns


AG and AU are , as you once told me Arco , essentially dollar shorts. We've done a 5 wave count on the Euro and similar for AG so supposedly we're in for a correction and could be a biggie if we look at the time frame of the wave count.
Recession isnt good for the metals.
Elliot Wave guru Prechter agrees with 1 above http://elliott.vo.llnwd.net/o18/pdf/0803EWTsilverxx.pdfOf interest too is this
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino032008.html

Craig3215
01-04-2008, 06:52 PM
What do the gartley experts think about a move to 15.4?

http://i191.photobucket.com/albums/z122/Craigjhu32/xag4-1.jpg

lakedaemonian
03-04-2008, 12:13 PM
well yeh I am looking for opportunities to buy more but these are the concerns


AG and AU are , as you once told me Arco , essentially dollar shorts. We've done a 5 wave count on the Euro and similar for AG so supposedly we're in for a correction and could be a biggie if we look at the time frame of the wave count.
Recession isnt good for the metals.
Elliot Wave guru Prechter agrees with 1 above http://elliott.vo.llnwd.net/o18/pdf/0803EWTsilverxx.pdfOf interest too is this
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/gerbino/gerbino032008.html

I'm convinced Gold/Silver will sky........just not sure WHEN.

My current dollar cost average is quite low........but I'm starting to think it's beyond just possible silver could tank like it did back in 06.

So I think my plan still stands.....continue picking up silver on dips....but I think I'll be a little more conservative than originally planned

peat
08-06-2008, 10:00 AM
US Mint will have to buy more silver to meet demand?

http://gata.org/node/6349

JBmurc
09-06-2008, 08:23 AM
Am looking at buying silver bullion as well as funds allow

DoctorG
10-06-2008, 08:53 AM
how will buy silver bullion: literally buy it, or will you leverage it on eg OANDA,
I have made small purchases on OANDA (I am sure any broker would do) and I have had small gains and small losses. Just guessing really but quite fun. But if you have a clear idea of the market and ar pretty confident then rather than buying it literally you would be better off leveraging up. Or is it too risky?

JBmurc
10-06-2008, 11:10 AM
I'm very bullish on silver so for me-
owning the real stuff -long term
holding MMN shares -mid term
holding 5000oz bull warrant- short term

these are the only ways I invest in silver



-Worth having a look at silvers uses a metal for the future IMHO to cheap atm

http://www.silverinstitute.org/uses.php#brazing

ananda77
16-06-2008, 03:21 PM
---trash---

http://www.newswithviews.com/brownfield/brownfield67.htm

Kind Regards

JBmurc
21-06-2008, 10:03 AM
Are Perth's silver stocks low?
Crikey intern Lachlan Taylor writes:



A storm appears to be brewing around The Perth Mint, with speculation that the Mint’s precious metals pool has run dry. There have been recent reports from customers of delays or refusals from the Mint when making requests for the delivery of silver.

The Perth Mint Certificate Program allows customers to purchase precious metals without the burden of having to personally store them. However, dozens of customers have reported long delays or straight refusals from the Perth Mint when trying to physically collect their silver.

The Mint is wholly-owned by the Western Australian Government, who fully guarantee the certificate program. The PMCP is the only certificate program in the world which has such government backing.


Currently the Mint has a precious metals liability of $880 million dollars, with $380 million going to subsidiaries to be used as an operating pool. With this much liability it seems inconceivable that the Mint could have run short of silver, and yet the signs seem to point to this. The Mint has told customers that there is no shortage, and that the delay is in production. But surely with an $880 million dollar operating pool they could ensure that production is completed on time.


Jason Hommel from SilverStockReport.com has had complaints from 30-50 of his 80,000 subscribers, and has informed the WA government on their behalf -- to no avail.

Two readers also sent in emails they had received from Nigel Moffet, the Treasurer and manager of The Perth Mint, which suggested an unhealthy reliance on the government.


Moffet reportedly said that investors in the certificates do not need to worry about the solvency of the Perth Mint, but rather the solvency of the government of Western Australia, which has a surplus of $2 billion/year.

If The Perth Mint were selling silver futures without the actual bullion, it would be a serious breach of the Fair Trading Act.


Hommel believes that any sort of government bail-out would send silver prices skyrocketing, as has happened before with gold prices, and could further destabilise world currencies.


The Perth Mint has refuted these “absolutely baseless” allegations and stressed that they are “audited rigourously” by the WA government and independent companies such as PricewaterhouseCoopers.


They also pointed out that all PMCP precious metals are insured by Lloyd’s of London, and that the Western Australian government has a AAA rating from Standard and Poor’s.


But with the price of silver set to soar (and therefore the amount of the Mint’s liability), troubling questions still remain.

peat
30-06-2008, 07:36 AM
found this picture on trademe of Silver in NZD. Quite interesting coz it looks a bit like an ascending triangle to me

peat
11-08-2008, 11:20 PM
a silver lining might be showing soon through the current clouds?

peat
12-08-2008, 03:09 PM
maybe not just yet..... never thought I'd see those stops taken out....

arco
12-08-2008, 04:16 PM
>>>>>>>>>>>>

Hi Peat

Possibly a Gartley, but ideally we should wait for a reversal signal
and new impulsive wave count to print. The pale grey box is the
potential Gartley turnaround zone, unless Fib 88.6 comes into play,
which could take the plot a little lower.

Waiting in the wings......

arco

lakedaemonian
12-08-2008, 05:45 PM
I'm back in buying here at under 14.50.

I'm still dollar cost averaging UP :)

Taking the long-view, I think at these levels it's a "no brainer".

It's interesting to see tangible prices are not dropping so much.

----------------------

On a related note, there is much glee to be had by the talking heads in seeing the price of commodities getting hammered...quite unlike the hannering equities have had in the past year+

I'm still firmly in the Jim Rogers camp......he even warned of likely substantial pullbacks for Chinese equities and commodities BEFORE they had their first leg bullrun.

Hopefully he visits NZ again like he did in 2001.

ananda77
14-08-2008, 07:17 AM
...time again to LOAD UP ON GOLD/SILVER (as much as you possibly can)

Kind Regards

arco
15-08-2008, 08:43 AM
There's a long black candle pattern called a LAST Engulfing Bottom, and it is actually a bullish signal.

There is a possible occurrence of this currently on the daily silver chart.

Here's the explanation taken from from Steve Nisons 'Beyond Candlesticks'

http://books.google.co.nz/books?id=r973JqW70-cC&pg=PA84&lpg=PA84&dq=last+bearish+engulfing&source=web&ots=kpeh43micC&sig=FoaV_ZUYzheXOXXx17ZFTJ3NvoI&hl=en&sa=X&oi=book_result&resnum=10&ct=result

arco
15-08-2008, 08:48 AM
-----------

Following on from the last post, here's the SLV chart showing the potential Last Engulfing Bottom. The daily candle has not quite finished yet, but its looking quite interesting at the moment.

Also notice the oscillator is showing green rising bars.

arco

arco
15-08-2008, 09:07 AM
_____________

Gold is showing a similar Last Engulfing bottom, but obviously its wise to wait for a little more confirmation.

Note the oscillator is showing a green rising bar on a black candle.......that's promising!

peat
15-08-2008, 12:44 PM
some more serious selling this morning.... !

arco
15-08-2008, 01:06 PM
Stop hunting perhaps???

ananda77
15-08-2008, 01:52 PM
some more serious selling this morning.... !

Stop hunting perhaps???

...it's all good folks; we are closing in on the 200 weekly MA (what's a $ amongst friends) and at this stage accumulating, accumulating, accumulating...

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/ambrose_evans-pritchard/blog/2008/08/12/stage_two_of_the_gold_bull_market_is_just_beginnin g

Kind Regards

ananda77
17-08-2008, 09:20 AM
...this is the latest announcement on the Kitco website re: supply of precious:

IMPORTANT NEW NOTICE: Due to market volatility and higher demand in the entire industry, we are anticipating delays in supply of all bullion products. Please note that you can continue to place orders and prices will be guaranteed; however, cancellation fees will still be applicable regardless of the length of the delay. Consequently once inventory is received there may also be delays in processing and shipping by our vaults.


Kind Regards

JBmurc
28-08-2008, 12:41 PM
BANK PARTICIPATION IN FUTURE CONTRACTS

SILVER Short Futures - US Banks
1/7/2008: 6,199 (30,995,000 ounces)
5/8/2008: 33,805 (169,025,000)
= an increase of more than 5 fold
-> coincided with a silver price drop from $19.55 in Sep to $12.22

GOLD Short Futures - US Banks
1/7/2008: 7,787 (778,700 ounces)
5/8/2008: 86,398 (8,639,800 ounces)
= an increase of more than 11 fold
-> coincided with a gold price drop of $150


Rob Kirby suggests this is the work of a few US Banks. JP Morgan now sports 93 billion + of gold derivatives!

In Rob Kirby's own words:
"Ladies and gentlemen, the OBSCENE amounts of these financial instruments being thrust through the system – allegedly in the name of 1 bank, amounting to MULTI-TRILLIONS per quarter – CAN ONLY BE THE WORK OF A PRIVATE CENTRAL BANK [read, the FED], because no public entity – bank or otherwise - has the balance sheet maneuverability in an impaired credit environment to conduct such business.

The current track is NOT SUSTAINABLE. This is evidenced by the recent “decoupling” or widening of spreads between the futures [COMEX] price of precious metals and the prices being paid to acquire physical metal. We see the same type of divergence in the interest rate complex where LIBOR is set [effectively by 3 month Eurodollar Interest Rate Contracts] at contrived rates where banks are UNWILLING to lend money.

Under our current monetary regime the distortions outlined above will continue to intensify.

This is why I believe it is so important that people consider having an appropriate amount of physical precious metal, which is getting harder to purchase despite recent price bashings.

I would suggest to you all that recent price declines in precious metal, although nasty, have been largely “linear” in nature. My concern is that on our current path, we will reach a point where confidence is shattered, resulting in a geometric advance in the nominal prices of all things real.

Are you protected?"

peat
28-08-2008, 03:58 PM
so.......... (I'm keen to explore the conspiracy theory)
Why are the Fed shorting silver ?

1/ so they can buy it cheap to make the Eagles ?
seems a bit ridiculous as they can sell the Eagles at cost plus anyway.

2/ So they can replenish their physical stocks which they've sold over the decades knowing that when they cancel their shorts the price will go back up ?

this situation does make the idea of investing in silver less appealing if you are effectively at the mercy of a mega trader.

JBmurc
29-08-2008, 02:13 PM
so.......... (I'm keen to explore the conspiracy theory)
Why are the Fed shorting silver ?

1/ so they can buy it cheap to make the Eagles ?
seems a bit ridiculous as they can sell the Eagles at cost plus anyway.

2/ So they can replenish their physical stocks which they've sold over the decades knowing that when they cancel their shorts the price will go back up ?

this situation does make the idea of investing in silver less appealing if you are effectively at the mercy of a mega trader.

they will have to cover there shorts some time
at current prices alot of mints aren't willing to sell any large quality's of silver alot of news out there on how hard it is to find physical silver just try buy a 5 kilo bar in NZ

Also see the price people are willing to pay for 1oz bullion on trademe there paying 28oz-30oz
----when silver was $4-$5 higher awhile ago people would pay 30-33oz

http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/2003/0718.html

ananda77
01-09-2008, 03:42 PM
...about the author: Chris Laird has been an Oracle systems engineer, database administrator, and math teacher. He has a BS in mathematics from UCLA and is a certified Oracle database administrator. He has been an avid follower of financial news since childhood. His father is Jere Laird, former business editor of KNX news AM 1070, Los Angeles (ret). He has grown up immersed in financial news. His Grandmother was Alice Widener, publisher of USA magazine in the 60's to 80's, a newsletter that covered many of the topics you find today at the preeminent gold sites. Chris is the publisher of the Prudent Squirrel newsletter, an economic and gold commentary.

Credit Crisis Financial Armageddon
Stock-Markets / Credit Crisis 2008
Aug 31, 2008 - 03:26 AM

By: Christopher_Laird

..." Now as to the USD strengthening now, and gold's vexing $100 plus volatility, it just seems best to make any protective moves well ahead of the fatal day. Once the situation gets out of control, Credit Crisis II begins, in a week from that point you will find it hard to make any changes. I view gold's present volatility as a total side issue, compared to what would happen if all one's money was tied to the financial system, the USD and so on, and then one's financial situation was frozen if the central banks decide to let go, and world foreign exchange restrictions are instituted. Gold is still one of the best ways to ride out what may come to pass. "

...read the article in full:
http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article6048.html

Kind Regards

ananda77
07-09-2008, 05:04 PM
...so what is going to happen if asset prices are going up again (sort of overnight if you want) ????

...and what is going to happen if the Fedheads and the Goofi-ernment continue to prop up the financial system and markets against all ods ????

...and what is going to happen if the whole financial thing comes crashing down????

...and who do you think is buying up (apart from me = tiniest speck of dirt in the universe)all the precious metals right now????

...anyway: http://www.kereport.com/audio/0906-02.mp3

Kind Regards

ananda77
12-09-2008, 05:47 PM
...US$ in "BLOW OFF" Mode...

Kind Regards

peat
19-09-2008, 07:10 AM
A perfect 5 wave up in yellow (starting at 18 in this chart) and abc correction in red (with c projecteda little ) on the hourly here for silver

note that wave 2 (20) almost fully corrects 1 (19), and that 3 (21) can easily be broken into 5 itself . The main 3 and the internal 3 0f 3 are both extended and that for 5 (23) there is divergence on the RSI.

One still has to figure a way of trading using Elliot tho. Its not a trading system in itself. In this instance it should find support just about the high of wave 1 so thats around 11.30.

ananda77
22-09-2008, 01:36 PM
...time again to LOAD UP ON GOLD/SILVER (as much as you possibly can)

Kind Regards

...the latest developments to replace Bad Assets with Paper Cash points to a new Hyper-inflationary asset cycle. Ultimately, it will end in an even bigger market crash and even more wealth shifted into the hands of banksters who can play -BIG Fish EAT SMALL FISH- via hedge funds.

...glad I loaded up on precious metals when they were SUPER CHEAP;

...by the way peat, happy to hope, your technical wave scenario WILL come into play since ...time again to LOAD UP ON GOLD/SILVER (as much as you possibly can) etc,etc, etc...

Kind Regards

JBmurc
22-09-2008, 10:38 PM
...the latest developments to replace Bad Assets with Paper Cash points to a new Hyper-inflationary asset cycle. Ultimately, it will end in an even bigger market crash and even more wealth shifted into the hands of banksters who can play -BIG Fish EAT SMALL FISH- via hedge funds.

...glad I loaded up on precious metals when they were SUPER CHEAP;

...by the way peat, happy to hope, your technical wave scenario WILL come into play since ...time again to LOAD UP ON GOLD/SILVER (as much as you possibly can) etc,etc, etc...

Kind Regards

Yeah is an absolute steal what you can but Physical silver atm got me another 10kilo's at $700oz ex perth mint ,without doult we'll going see alot higher price come this time next yr min $30oz

JBmurc
30-09-2008, 09:23 AM
iShares Silver ETF holdings rise to record 6,901 T
Mon Sep 29, 2008 8:36am EDT Email | Print | Share| Reprints | Single Page | Recommend (0) [-] Text [+] Market News
Dollar gains on euro, falls against yen on risk aversion
Oil drops nearly 10 percent as House rejects bailout
Dow suffers record point drop as House rejects bailout | Video
More Business & Investing News... LONDON, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Holdings of the world's largest silver-backed exchange-traded fund, the iShares Silver Trust, SLV.A rose to a record 6,901.41 tonnes on Sept. 25, according to the trust's website seen on Monday.

The trust's holdings have climbed nearly 7 percent since the beginning of September as buyers took advantage of lower prices to increase their holdings of the metal.

Spot silver <XAG=> was quoted at $12.91/12.99 an ounce at 1218 GMT, around 5 percent below the level it hit a month ago.

"Physically backed ETFs are very popular right now because there is a sense that they are more of a tangible asset and less exposed to counterparty risk," said Stephen Briggs, commodity strategist at RBS Global Banking & Markets.

Briggs said the resilience of silver ETF holdings over the summer months, when platinum and some gold ETFs were seeing outflows, suggested a different type of investor was buying silver.

"One must conclude that the holders of the silver ETFs tend to be more dominated by the retail investor than is the case for (holders of gold and platinum ETFs)," he said.

"Partly that is because silver isn't as expensive, so it is slightly more accessible."

ETF Securities reported on Monday that the holdings of its silver-backed exchange-traded commodity PHAG.L also rose last week, to 12.089 million ounces.

(Reporting by Jan Harvey; Editing by Karen Foster)

JBmurc
01-10-2008, 10:21 PM
TOCOM

Ladies and Gentlemen:
On September 29th the seven big gold shorts reduced their net short position by 563 contracts to 16,816 contracts which is a new low combined net short position for them since I began recording this data in February 2006.

STDJ reduced their gold net short position by 28 contracts to 6,939 contracts.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

In silver they reduced their net short position by 14.50 contracts to 82.50 contracts (60kg deliverable equivalent). This is another new low combined silver net short position going back almost a year.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/silver/torikumi.html

Best wishes,
Scott

GOLDMAN SACHS GOES NET LONG GOLD ON TOCOM

In the September 29 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs COVERED 13 short contracts and bought 495 long contracts to bring their long position to 2,525 contracts AND AS A RESULT MAKING THEM NET LONG 28 CONTRACTS!!! The largest net short position they held was 52,000 contracts in March of 2006.

Below it is shown graphically. The declining net short position has been going on for 30 months and I have predicted for some time that GS would eventually be net long just before the gold price explodes. Well here we are! John Reade of UBS poked fun at me for this analysis saying that GATA doesn’t know what an arbitrage position is. Well, Mr. Reade I do know, and this sure as hell isn’t one! This chart documents perfectly the demise of the gold Cartel. It should be noted that in July Goldman Sachs advised its clients to sell gold as they said gold was going to $740/oz. Their price prediction turned out to be accurate, however, they did not sell gold from their own account during that time; they covered their shorts with the aid of charitable donations from the clients’ who followed their advice!



Here is the estimated liquidated value of the GS TOCOM gold position. I no longer have to extrapolate this as their net short position has now been eliminated. GS has lost approximately 185 MM$ on their TOCOM position since I started tracking the data in January 2006. One has to wonder why a company as smart as GS would tolerate being in an increasingly losing position for so long. I think we know the answer. The suppression of the gold price facilitated orders of magnitude larger profits to be made in other markets.



Now that Goldman Sachs has finally come on to the GATA side of the market we can expect a gold price explosion.

For a long time many in our camp wondered if the Cartel was so smart they could continue their manipulation for ever. We have seen in the last few weeks that some of the key players have stepped on their own land mines. The laws of economics can be frustrated but not repealed.

JBmurc
23-10-2008, 11:29 AM
well trying to find some phys silver atm is become a joke ever week there another week delay add on what does this tell you about the so called sell off of hard commondites
if you want a large buy order like 100kilos only $63,000 worth of silver I was told on the ph before round- Feb 09 so
Now I've been buying silver bullion for awhile now and it wasn't that long ago it was a 2week wait for 1kg bars this is an e-mail I just recieved from the NZmint...

Understandably, the current delivery times are not ideal.

1kg Silver bars are the largest we trade at this point in time. Depending on how many kilos you’re after; you are looking at around 8-10 weeks for delivery.

Kind regards

Ok so what happen if silver spikes back over $20 which it will soon will delivery time's go out to 6-7-12months wait???? As buyer rush to exit the paper currencys -It's not if but when IMHO

JBmurc
30-11-2008, 09:08 PM
"New exchange traded commodities for ASX
ETF Securities provides metal offerings

By Darin Tyson-Chan
Fri 21 Nov 2008
Investors will soon have four new ETCs to invest in on the ASX.

ETF Securities is set to launch four new exchange traded commodities (ETCs) onto the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX), offering investors access to particular metals for the first time.

The new ETCs that will be available to investors from December 2008 are the ETFS Physical Platinum, ETFS Physical Palladium, ETFS Physical Silver, and the ETFS Physical PM Basket, which comprises an allocation of each metal as well as gold.

ETF Securities has also acquired 100 per cent of the existing ASX listed gold ETC.

"What is unique about the products is they are actually backed by physical, allocated bullion," ETF Securities representative Hector McNeil said.

"It means... it is not a credit risk against another organisation... it is your metal held in a vault and we actually publish every bar number on our website," he said.

Buying one unit in an ETC will translate into owning one tenth of an ounce of gold, platinum or palladium, or an ounce of silver depending on which commodity the investor selects.

Based on this allocation the investor can, if he or she owns sufficient units, physically redeem their metal if so desired.

"By holding the physical metal you actually become a feature of the demand story in that commodity," McNeill said.

Investing in ETCs can also enhance the diversification of an investment portfolio, as these commodities are negatively correlated to bonds and equities, according to McNeill.

All of the ETCs are open-ended and there are no entry or exit fees charged on any of them.

"The gold itself costs 40 basis points to invest in on an annual basis... and the platinum, palladium, and silver will cost 50 basis points, with the basket being a blend of fees," McNeill said.

arco
01-12-2008, 09:43 AM
Thanks JBM - that sounds like a very interesting way to hold the precious metals..........................

Just looking up details of the ECM/ECF operation worldwide and found this.

About Us - ETF Securities Ltd is an issuer of Exchange Traded Products. In 2003, the management of ETF Securities listed the world's first ETC. Building on its success ETF Securities created the world's first entire ETC platform which was listed on the London Stock Exchange in September 2006. Since then, ETF Securities has listed its ETCs on Europe's major exchanges (Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam and Italy) with each exchange creating a separate ETC segment.

Partners

ETF Securities has worked with the following organisations to develop ETCs:

HSBC N.A. - HSBC is one of the world's leading custodians for precious metals and is the world's leading custodian for precious metal ETCs.

World Gold Council - The World Gold Council is an organisation formed and funded by the world's leading gold mining companies with the aim of stimulating and maximising the demand for, and holding of, gold by consumers, investors, industry, and the official sector.

Royal Dutch Shell - The Royal Dutch/Shell Group is a global group of energy and petrochemicals companies, operating in more than 140 countries and territories.

American International Group, Inc. (AIG) - American International Group, Inc. (AIG) is the leading international insurance organisation with operations in more than 130 countries and jurisdictions. In addition, AIG companies are leading providers of retirement services, financial services and asset management around the world. AIG's common stock is listed in the U.S. on the New York Stock Exchange as well as the stock exchanges in London, Paris, Switzerland and Tokyo.


History

2003 Listed world's first gold ETC. 2005 Listed world's first oil ETC. 2006 Listed world's first entire ETC platform. 2007 Listed world's first physical metal ETC platform. 2007 Listed world's first Forward ETC platform, providing investors the ability to invest along the commodity futures curve. 2008 Listed world's first Short and Leveraged ETC platform. 2008 Announced world's first Shariah compliant precious metal ETC platform. Listed on 5 major European Exchanges: London Stock Exchange, Deutsche Börse, Euronext Paris and Amsterdam, Borsa Italiana. Completes acquisition of Gold Bullion Securities products on London and Australian Stock Exchanges. Listed the world's first Carbon ETC. Listed Europe's first platform of 13 commodity themed sector ETFs.

Awards

Awarded 'Most Innovative ETF 2005 - OILB' as voted by the readers of www.exchangetradedfunds.com (http://www.exchangetradedfunds.com/)

Awarded 'Most Innovative Product 2006 & 2007' as voted by the editors of Investors Chronicle (UK)

Awarded 'Most Innovative ETF Hybrid Product Award for Europe 2006' & 2007' as voted by the readers of www.exchangetradedfunds.com (http://www.exchangetradedfunds.com/)


Management

Graham Tuckwell - Chairman

Graham Tuckwell is the founder and chairman of the ETF Securities group of companies. He is also the founder and chairman of Gold Bullion Securities Limited in Jersey and Australia, which companies obtained the world's first listings of a commodity on a stock exchange. Previously, Graham was the founder and managing director of Investor Resources Limited, a boutique corporate advisory firm, which specialised in providing financial, technical and strategic advice to the resources industry. Prior to establishing Gold Bullion Securities Limited and Investor Resources Limited, he was Head of Mining Asia/Pacific at Salomon Brothers, Group Executive Director at Normandy Mining responsible for Strategy and Acquisitions and Head of Mergers and Acquisitions at Credit Suisse First Boston in Australia. Graham holds a Bachelor of Economics (Honours) and a Bachelor of Laws degree from the Australian National University. Nik Bienkowski - Chief Operating Officer

Nik Bienkowski helped Graham Tuckwell found ETF Securities. Nik joined Graham Tuckwell in 2002 when they established Gold Bullion Securities, the world's first gold ETC. Nik had previously been involved with marketing and research but now covers product development, listings and Exchange relations and index licensing. Previously, Nik spent almost five years at a number of departmental start-ups including the Canadian office for Macquarie Bank's mining team and Towers Perrin's global custody consulting team. Nik holds the CFA and B.A./B.Comm (Honours Finance) degrees from Melbourne University. Hector McNeil - Head of Sales and Marketing

Hector McNeil is responsible for sales and marketing for the ETF Securities group of companies. Hector started his career at the London Stock Exchange after completing his studies at the University of Hull. Hector left the LSE to study full time for an MBA at Warwick Business School. He then had a short stint at BZW before moving to Morgan Stanley for five years. From Morgan Stanley, Hector moved to become Chief Operating Officer at Jiway, the Exchange joint venture between Morgan Stanley and OM Gruppen. After Jiway, Hector spent time at Nomura, and then was Head of Business Development at Susquehanna International Securities, setting up a highly successful market making and liquidity provision business which included ETF, stock future and equity market making. Greg Burgess, Chief Financial Officer

Greg Burgess is one of the founders of the ETF Securities group of companies. Currently the Group's Chief Financial Officer, Greg has and continues to serve the Group in various capacities including Director and Company Secretary of several group companies. Greg is also a director of Gold Bullion Securities Limited in Australia. Previously, Greg was the Finance Director of Investor Resources Limited, a boutique corporate advisory firm, which specialised in providing financial, technical and strategic advice to the resources industry. Prior to joining IRL, Greg was the Chief Financial Officer of Wizard Information Services and has previously held senior positions within the Australian Department of Finance and at Normandy Mining Limited. Mr. Burgess is a qualified accountant with over 25 years experience and is a Fellow of the Certified Practicing Accountants in Australia. Nicholas Brooks, Head of Research and Investment Strategy

Nicholas is responsible for research and investment strategy for the ETF Securities group of companies. Prior to joining ETF Securities, Nicholas was senior economist and market strategist on Henderson Global Investors economics, strategy and asset allocation team based in London. Before that he worked at Deutsche Bank where he was senior economist on the bank's top ranked Global Markets team. He has also held senior research roles at HSBC (Hong Kong) and Peregrine Securities (Hong Kong and Singapore). He started his career at Citibank in New York. Nicholas has a B.A. from Brown University, M.A. from Columbia University and an MSc in Economics (with Distinction) from the University of London. Executives

Marketing and PR
Helen Burden
Tessa Prendergast
Nicolas Rajner

Research
Mandy (Chingmin) Chiu
Edith Southammakosane
Benoit Autier
Nicholas Brooks
Daniel Wills

Sales
Stefan Garcia
Nigel Phelan
Socheat Chhay
Tim Harvey
Peter Saunders
Massimo Siano
William Rhind
Michael Geister
Neil Jamieson
Emil Petersen
Nigel Longley
Rachel Kersey-Brown
Patrick Witteveen
Sameer Meralli

Legal and Operations
Danny Laidler
Charles Carvell

http://www.etfsecurities.com/en/other/etfs_aboutus.asp

arco
01-12-2008, 09:51 AM
Sept 16 2008

U.S. to Take Over AIG in $85 Billion Bailout; Central Banks Inject Cash as Credit Dries Up


The U.S. government seized control of American International Group (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=aig) Inc. -- one of the world's biggest insurers -- in an $85 billion deal that signaled the intensity of its concerns about the danger a collapse could pose to the financial system.
The step marks a dramatic turnabout for the federal government, which had been strongly resisting overtures from AIG for an emergency loan or some intervention that would prevent the insurer from falling into bankruptcy. Just last weekend, the government essentially pulled the plug on Lehman Brothers Holdings (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=leh) Inc., allowing the big investment bank to go under instead of giving it financial support. This time, the government decided AIG truly was too big to fail.
http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-CI837_aigdea_D_20080916132411.jpg Associated PressBusinessmen leave an American International Group office building Tuesday in New York.



The U.S. negotiators drove a hard bargain. Under terms hammered out Tuesday night, the Fed will lend up to $85 billion to AIG, and the U.S. government will effectively get a 79.9% equity stake in the insurer in the form of warrants called equity participation notes. The two-year loan will carry an interest rate of Libor plus 8.5 percentage points. (Libor, the London interbank offered rate, is a common short-term lending benchmark.)
The loan is secured by AIG's assets, including its profitable insurance businesses, giving the Fed some protection even if markets continue to sink. And if AIG rebounds, taxpayers could reap a big profit through the government's equity stake.
"This loan will facilitate a process under which AIG will sell certain of its businesses in an orderly manner, with the least possible disruption to the overall economy," the Fed said in a statement.
It puts the government in control of a private insurer -- a historic development, particularly considering that AIG isn't directly regulated by the federal government. The Fed took the highly unusual step using legal authority granted in the Federal Reserve Act, which allows it to lend to nonbanks under "unusual and exigent" circumstances, something it invoked when Bear Stearns Cos. was rescued in March.
As part of the deal, Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson insisted that AIG's chief executive, Robert Willumstad, step aside. Mr. Paulson personally told Mr. Willumstad the news in a phone call on Tuesday, according to a person familiar with the call.
Mr. Willumstad will be succeeded by Edward Liddy, the former head of insurer Allstate (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=all) Corp.
AIG's bailout caps a tumultuous 10 days that have remade the American financial system. In that time, the government has engineered rescues that insert it deep into the housing and insurance industries, while Wall Street has watched two of its last four big independent brokerage firms exit the scene.
The U.S. on Sept. 6 took over mortgage-lending giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac as they teetered near collapse. This Sunday, the U.S. refused to bail out Wall Street pillar Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy-court protection and is now being sold off in pieces. That same day, another struggling Wall Street titan, Merrill Lynch (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=mer) & Co., agreed to sell itself to Bank of America (http://online.wsj.com/public/quotes/main.html?type=djn&symbol=bac) Corp.
View Slideshow (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122156561931242905.html#)


http://s.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-CI377_915leh_D_20080915105520.jpg (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122156561931242905.html#)



The AIG deal followed a day of high drama in Washington. The Treasury's Mr. Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke convened in the early evening an unexpected meeting of top congressional leaders. Late in the trading day Tuesday, anticipation that the government might assist the insurer helped propel the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a 1.3% gain.
In bailing out AIG, the Federal Reserve appeared to be motivated in part by worries that Wall Street's financial crisis could begin to spill over into seemingly safe investments held by small investors, such as money-market funds that invest in AIG debt.
Indeed, on Tuesday the $62 billion Primary Fund from the Reserve, a New York money-market firm, said it "broke the buck" -- that is, its net asset value fell below the $1-a-share level that funds like this must maintain. Breaking the buck is an extremely rare occurrence. The fund was pinched by investments in bonds issued by now collapsing Lehman Brothers.
Money-market funds are supposed to be among the safest investments available. No fund in the $3.6 trillion money-market industry has lost money since 1994, when Orange County, Calif., went bankrupt. A number of money-market funds own securities issued by AIG. The firm is also a big insurer of some money-market instruments.
Credit Downgrade

AIG's financial crisis intensified Monday night when its credit rating was downgraded, forcing it to post $14.5 billion in collateral. The insurer has far more than that in assets that it could sell, but it could not get the cash quickly enough to satisfy the collateral demands. That explains the interest in obtaining a bridge loan to carry it through. AIG's board approved the rescue Tuesday night.
AIG's board said in a statement that the deal would "protect all AIG policyholders, address rating agency concerns and give AIG the time necessary to conduct asset sales on an orderly basis."
The final decision to help AIG came Tuesday as the federal government concluded it would be "catastrophic" to allow the insurer to fail, according to a person familiar with the matter. Over the weekend, federal officials had tried to get the private sector to pony up some funds. But when that effort failed, Fed Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Timothy Geithner and Treasury Secretary Paulson concluded that federal assistance was needed to avert an AIG bankruptcy, which they feared could have disastrous repercussions.
Staff from the Federal Reserve and Treasury worked on the plan through Monday night. President George W. Bush was briefed on the rescue Tuesday afternoon during a meeting of the President's Working Group on Financial Markets.
That the government would prop up AIG financially offers a stark indication of the breadth of the insurer's role in the global economy. If it were to have trouble meeting its obligations, the potential domino effect could reach around the world.
For one thing, banks and mutual funds are major holders of AIG's debt and could take a hit if the insurer were to default. In addition, AIG was a major seller of "credit-default swaps," essentially insurance against default on assets tied to corporate debt and mortgage securities. Weakness at AIG could force financial institutions in the U.S., Europe and Asia that bought these swaps to take write-downs or losses.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122156561931242905.html

JBmurc
13-12-2008, 06:18 PM
The Road to Roota IX
By Bix Weir

When the music stops….WHO’S GOT THE SILVER?



I'm hearing a lot of speculation in the silver world about a possible run on the COMEX inventories and I want to share my thoughts on this possibility. I too believe that we are in the midst of a run on silver BUT I do not believe it will be visible until the default is already done and gone. Religiously following the COMEX inventory withdrawals or delivery notices is NOT where the default truth will be revealed....NOT A CHANCE!

Hopefully, we all know by now that the COMEX/NYMEX is corrupt to the core and the CFTC facilitates the market manipulation by running a fake oversight operation. That has been fully analyzed, discussed and proven by many in the silver manipulation camp… but what about the actual physical silver those warehouses claim to possess? How do we know that the "Authorized COMEX Warehouses" are holding any metal at all?

Let's first take a look at the COMEX Approved Warehouses and try to see who's side they may be on....

There are 4 authorized depositories for COMEX silver and they are the Delaware Depository, Brinks, Scotia Mocatta and HSBC.

1) Delaware Depository - Currently holds 9% of COMEX silver inventory and is owned by FideliTrade which from their website "comprises the former precious metals investor service operations of Wilmington Trust Company, Citibank, Bank of America, Bank of Delaware and Sunshine Mining Company". Although not a big holder of metal, the fact that the Delaware Depository is registered as a Delaware Corporation could give great tax shelters to corporations holding silver there. This is all well and good but the only time I see Bank of America’s name in the silver world is when they are delivering large chunks of physical silver on the COMEX (for example on 11/28/08 they were called to deliver 2,000 contracts or 10,000,000 oz!) Is it a coincidence that 10M oz equates to almost all of the silver in "their" warehouse? Maybe, maybe not but clearly a large, physical silver, long position was called for delivery and Bank of America was named as the counter party (short) to deliver.

2) Brinks - Currently holds 7% of COMEX silver inventory. At quick glance, Brinks is a legitimate security company without much history of cabal banking ties. I have no reason to assume that Brinks would have any motivation to lie about the amount of physical silver they hold in their warehouse. If I had to hold my physical silver in a COMEX warehouse (which I don't) I would choose Brinks if only for their lack of banking ties.

So I am not too worried about the first two COMEX warehouses and although the B of A connection doesn't sit too well with me, the amount of silver held in the Delaware warehouse is not enough to shake the foundations of silver manipulation. Together these warehouses only claim to hold 16% of the COMEX cache of physical silver. So far so good.

Now let's look at the 2 major COMEX warehouses:

3) Scotia Mocatta - Currently claims to hold 29.6M oz or 23% of COMEX silver in inventory. Scotia Mocatta has long been suspected as a MAJOR manipulator by silver analyst Ted Butler (Fighting Back) and for me Ted Butler's work is proof enough that Scotia is one of the "bad guys" in silver....So why should we believe them when they say they hold almost 30M oz of silver in a warehouse that nobody is allowed to audit except them? And while we’re on that issue, has anyone noticed that the Scotia Mocatta silver depository is located at the JFK Airport? How much of that silver is there or needs to be flown in/out to satisfy the global silver market manipulation machine? How much of that silver, so conveniently located next to the Virgin Airlines cargo loading, is pledged to the silver ETF that JP Morgan is the custodian for in the UK? Why should we believe Scotia Mocatta about anything? I don't.

4) HSBC - Currently claims to hold 78M oz or 61% of COMEX silver in inventory. HSBC holds the mother load of physical silver at the COMEX approved warehouses. HSBC! Where do I start with these guys?! Just run a Google search on “HSBC Conspiracy” and you can start to connect the dots. Or you go to the best source IN THE WORLD for the history of gold/silver market manipulation....LemetropoleCafe.com! I ran a search in the Cafe search function of "HSBC" and found HUNDREDS of entries where HSBC was either involved in blatant manipulation, suspected of manipulation and even had employees ADMITTING manipulation going all the way back to 10/10/2000. Are we supposed to believe that HSBC is not lying when they report silver inventories of 78M oz in THEIR warehouse? If you believe in silver market manipulation you need to understand that the operation is global in scope and includes EVERYONE in the silver metal complex that could influence the operation. If you believe that HSBC is in on the manipulation operation you must seriously question their honesty in silver warehouse reporting.

Hopefully, after understanding how these facilities are connected to the banking cabal, you will look at the COMEX warehouse reporting with the proper amount of skepticism as the run on silver progresses.

As for the SLV inventory, once you read the Prospectus you can easily see that this ETF is nothing more than a market rigging mechanism by the banking cabal. This truth was made even more clear when iShares CHANGED the original Prospectus to REMOVE the word “bullion” from all references to silver. From that point on silver “held” in the silver ETF could be almost anything including certificates, pooled accounts, COMEX contracts, 90% silver, 50% silver, 0.001% silver….it stopped mattering.

And what’s that mysterious connection between JP Morgan controlling the SLV inventories at the same time they are MASSIVELY shorting COMEX silver (as exposed by Ted Butler (Real Story) to manipulate the price down? Did the CFTC justify the silver short manipulation by claiming JPM had access to the physical metal because they are the custodian for SLV so they could naked short to their heart’s content? Just because they have custodial responsibilities for a large amount of physical silver does not give them the legal right to manipulate the price of silver.

Who ultimately owns all that silver? SLV shareholders or the “Authorized Participants” who also have “pooled accounts”, metal loans, leases, swaps, etc.? As I exposed in my Road to Roota III article, there is a very blurry line between the COMEX silver inventories and the SLV inventories. David Kass of the CFTC should have never answered my emails and exposed this grey area (…since then Commissioner Bart Chilton has blocked all my emails!). It is my contention that not only is there a tremendous amount of double counting in those “un-auditable” inventories, but I highly suspect that there are multiple owners for EVERY bar that is controlled by the bullion banks. The regulatory agencies are well aware of these practices and the Morgan Stanley Silver Fraud shows just how prevalent this practice is.

Your average silver investor can have no idea how much physical silver is available with the 2 largest publicly reported holdings (the Delaware Depository and iShares Silver) being controlled and inventoried by the 2 largest banking cabal manipulators, JP Morgan and HSBC! So how much physical silver do YOU think is actually available for sale? My guess is a lot less than meets the eye!

Pile all this information on top of the fact that GOVERNMENT MINTS around the world have stopped the production of silver coins (which happens to be illegal in the US), the price of silver being cut in half by JP Morgan in a matter of months and a SERIOUS shortage of physical silver around the world and you’ve got yourself one genuine global silver market rigging conspiracy!

peat
19-12-2008, 05:56 AM
instant valuation of silver coins....


http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/new-zealand-silver-coin-values.htm

peat
26-12-2008, 08:01 PM
this is a possible count

the (iii) of 3 even breaks into 5

the dashed lines going down are possible wave 5's and are drawn to equal = wave 1 (which isnt necessarily a given) and if the first (projection) happened from somewhere around here would suggest $6.3.

note that a 261% extension of wave 1 = about $6.8 (brown)

also note that a %261 extension of wave 2 (blue) did coincide with wave 3 termination approximately

ananda77
26-12-2008, 08:20 PM
this is a possible count

the (iii) of 3 even breaks into 5

the dashed lines going down are possible wave 5's and are drawn to equal = wave 1 (which isnt necessarily a given) and if the first (projection) happened from somewhere around here would suggest $6.3.

note that a 261% extension of wave 1 = about $6.8 (brown)

also note that a %261 extension of wave 2 (blue) did coincide with wave 3 termination approximately

Hi peat:

...this continued technical bearishness in gold and silver together with the behavior of the treasury bond market paints quite a depressing picture perfect for a continued free fall price spiral despite extraordinary efforts by the Fed to prevent depression; still quite averse to hold US treasuries long, but logical to go that way in case depression digs deeper

Kind Regards

JBmurc
03-01-2009, 08:39 AM
good to see the silver:gold ratio finally starting to go back in silvers favour at 76 still pretty crazy when their's at the most 7 times more silver in-ground than gold
also good to see silver gain as the USD gained will really jump when the USD starts to fall Gold holding it's ground looking ready to attack the 900 range once the weak USD finally starts to get down to it's true value

arco
03-01-2009, 02:18 PM
Peat, re 4H chart

I wonder if in the short term Silver could first
be eyeing up the nice round 12.00

If thats the case it could then potentially form a bearish
Butterfly, and at that point we may see a correction

Markets may be a bit more stable next week with more players

JBmurc
10-01-2009, 10:38 AM
The silver story has yet to come to the attention of the public. Most Americans
don’t realize how truly important silver is to industry and how strong the demand
is. Nor do they know that the U.S. government, which had over 3 billion ounces
of silver in 1942, ran out of silver. Even the national defense stockpile is gone.
Over 90% of all the silver that’s been mined in the past 5,000 years has been used up by industry and is
gone forever. Today world silver inventories are at the lowest point in 200 years. At the same time demand
for silver is greater than ever. There may not be enough silver to go around.
James R. Cook
President
Investment Rarities
INTRODUCTION

peat
13-01-2009, 05:43 PM
not a great night for silver but hasnt actually gone down in NZ $. i believe there will be weakness but will consider buying paper silver into any serious troughs at lower levels.
I'm continuing to acquire physical in small amounts where I can get it for spot prices which isnt that easy tbh

however did get these for a tenner

v.close to half an oz.

http://images.trademe.co.nz/photoserver/tq/35/82292935.jpg

Aussie
13-01-2009, 07:50 PM
Nice score Peat, I wonder what the purchasing power of those two coins was back in 1934 New Zealand?

peat
18-01-2009, 10:13 PM
this Gann Global stuff I've been listening to this weekend are saying that they are preparing and looking to short Soybeans and Silver.
They say silver has now rallied %40 and this is the 3rd largest bear market rally ever, and, that Timewise it should finish between now and Jan 26th. They use historical % price movements and time movements and attempt to correlate and overlay these with the current situation to identify likely turning points. That methodology fits if they have a name like Gann I guess.

He sees new highs as shorting opportunities for the resumption of the bear to new lows.

Note that Silver in NZD has moved up quite a bit recently. currently pricing it at $NZ20.6

JBmurc
20-01-2009, 10:12 AM
Thanks to BAP on the HGD tread I printed & read this 61 page report on silver-

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

Well after reading it I went an brought another 52oz of silver bullion facts I think any metal investors should know is how very low reserves of silver are like-

-there being more paper silver shorts in the market than all of the above ground silver reserves worldwide
- production at current levels is short of demand by many tons shortfall made up by the large scrap market(with base miners closing production to fall)
-World Known underground reserves V's per yr demand leaves a little over 10yrs left.
-At the most Geo's predict a est. max 30yrs of silver left on earth if we keep up the massive micro-usage depletion

BAPP
20-01-2009, 02:22 PM
Thanks to BAP on the HGD tread I printed & read this 61 page report on silver-

http://www.investmentrarities.com/

Well after reading it I went an brought another 52oz of silver bullion facts I think any metal investors should know is how very low reserves of silver are like-

-there being more paper silver shorts in the market than all of the above ground silver reserves worldwide
- production at current levels is short of demand by many tons shortfall made up by the large scrap market(with base miners closing production to fall)
-World Known underground reserves V's per yr demand leaves a little over 10yrs left.
-At the most Geo's predict a est. max 30yrs of silver left on earth if we keep up the massive micro-usage depletion

Hi JBmurc,

This made me take another look at silver again. I was already bullish about gold and silver and this report provides a convincing outlook IMO.

For anyone interested there are also some interesting articles at: www.theaureport.com

Cheers
BP:)

peat
21-01-2009, 06:59 AM
USD/AG 11.12
NZD/USD 0.5226
NZD/AG 21.28

JBmurc
25-01-2009, 05:52 PM
I see silver demand still is outstripping supply pushing out delivers to 8 weeks as for gold no worrys can be supplied striaght away from the NZ mint can see silver delivers growing from here as there's be a worldwide 10 fold increasing in bullion buying right at a time when supply is falling with Zinc silver, lead silver mines closing under base metal profit margins going negative

JBmurc
25-01-2009, 09:18 PM
Silver investigation: Stakes are enormous
By Rob Mackinlay

If the US regulator’s current investigation into the silver futures market is looking at allegations of ongoing price manipulation it is the first of its kind – according to a former CFTC director of enforcement.


Previous Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) investigations have been into market manipulations that have already taken place. The potential for the current silver investigation to halt an ongoing manipulation could have significant implications for the price of silver.

Geoffrey Aronow, a partner at law firm Bingham McCutchen and Gregory Mocek a partner at McDermott Will & Emery, both former directors of the Division of Enforcement at the CFTC, said that the division would not be carrying out the investigation if there were not legitimate grounds for concern.

Aronow, who oversaw an investigation into manipulation of the global copper market in the late 1990s, said: "I don’t know if this is allegedly ongoing conduct that an investigation will stop. Usually, an investigation occurs after the behaviour stops and the price moves back to where it’s supposed to be in an 'unmanipulated' market."

"Usually what’s happened is that the conduct has stopped. The evidence that there was price movement back to a new equilibrium is in fact part of the indication that there may have been a manipulation. Usually the return to a 'normal' equilibrium is pointed to as further evidence that there was manipulation. Now I don’t know if that’s the argument here."

However the existence of long-term manipulation is an issue of contention in itself. Aronow said: "One of the things I will observe is that anyone who has looked at manipulation would say they [manipulations] can only be maintained over the short-term. So most of the time what you have are short-term manipulations. Prices spike and that becomes part of the investigation."

Are UK investors ignoring silver?

Financial Express data show that only one fund in a database of 56,000 has a silver ETF in its top ten holdings.

Silver ignored by UK investors: will it all be gone by 2034?

Analysts say silver fundamentals are strong with or without manipulation.

Leon Diamond, portfolio manager for New York-based Castlestone Management including Castlestone Aliquot Precious Metal which holds equal measures of physical gold, silver and platinum, notes that the correlation between gold and silver is key to understanding the latter's importance as an asset that can withstand economic downturn.

At current consumption rates it is likely that by 2034 there will no longer be silver left that can be economically mined, Diamond says, against estimates that gold production can be sustained until 2060.

"Roughly speaking, silver is twice as rare as gold in the long term since it is not recycled like gold. It is recycled only about 40% of the time, compared with 99% for gold. This means that silver is literally disappearing, never to be recoverable."

"Currently the gold to silver ratio is around 75:1 measured by troy ounces. The long-term mean for the last 350 years has been 30:1. Gold and silver tend to move in similar direction, therefore if the reversion to mean theory stands, silver must move nearly twice as fast as gold on the upside and twice as slow on the downside."


"If they’re looking over the long term, to maintain a manipulated price, that’s a very different notion. To sustain that for an extended period of time, that would be an extraordinary situation. The amount of resources required to maintain an uneconomic price against the market would be huge and the question would be: what is the economic benefit that is gained from that?"

He said: "For the CFTC, in recent years, virtually every investigation has been based on the notion that the uneconomic behaviour in one market benefited the behaviour in another market. For example manipulating the closing price in an uneconomic way in the futures market but you had a much larger position in the OTC market that was settled off that price. But that’s a short-term manipulation at close of contract. Part of the question that has to be asked is that, if they are doing it for an extended period, what is the pay off?"

Ted Butler, whose allegations of ongoing manipulation are believed to be the subject of the current investigation, said that Aronow’s points were “encouraging”.

He said: "He (Aronow) confirms a number of contentions of mine: One, the CFTC has never busted up an ongoing manipulation (crime in progress), and therefore, has no experience with one."

"Two, the allegations are based upon evidence that is from their own data, so it doesn't matter what participants may say or know about the entire market.

"Three, that evidence is credible enough that it obviously warrants an investigation.

"Four, they are obviously afraid or reluctant to talk to me, even though it is clear I am the instigator of allegations.

"Five, because it is a long-term manipulation, the stakes are enormous."

Butler agreed with Aronow that there had to be an intent to manipulate the market and an economic justification for doing so: “There is no legitimate economic justification (for large short positions held by one or two players in the silver futures market) and the intent to manipulate couldn't be more clear, namely, financial survival for the big concentrated shorts.“

Butler said: “To lose control and be forced to cover shorts would set off a price explosion that would cripple them (those involved in the alleged manipulation) financially and expose the manipulation for all to see. The "return" to free market prices he talked about.”

When the current investigation was revealed in US press in September 2008, CFTC Commissioner, Bart Chilton, said he had received 700 emails complaining about large short positions in the silver futures market.

In an email to a member of the public on 27 December, Chilton said: “I requested an investigation, which is ongoing. I have been briefed and believe that the investigators are making progress."

Greg Mocek, who left the division in July 2008, said that the division only responds to legitimate tips, not political pressure and that the validity of complaints had to be vetted before full investigations were initiated. He said that “if” Chilton had requested the investigation it was probably not politically motivated: "since you don't hear U.S. politicians crying about silver prices being too low."

He said: "There are currently four commissioners and they are all political appointees, so everything they do is politically motivated to a certain degree. But that being said, I ran the division for seven years, and we investigated hundreds of tips that were legitimate."

"The CFTC will look to the source of the allegations and the conduct involved to determine whether a tip is in fact legitimate. If it is, then the government will pursue a matter and use government resources to investigate the facts.

"However, a tip and a subsequent open investigation do not indicate illegal conduct. It just means that the CFTC saw smoke." He also said: "When I was there, there were no politically motivated investigations. I assume that has not changed."

Aronow made a similar point: "Often you get someone complaining and then market surveillance sees nothing. My guess here is that there was enough that they (CFTC staff) said at least they could look behind it and use enforcement power and look at people’s trading. At least it got past the stage of market surveillance taking a look at it."

However Aronow had a different take on the CFTC’s reaction to political pressure. In essence he agreed that political pressure was subservient to evidence.

He said: "I’m certainly not aware of circumstances where some influential person says there’s something going on and they start a full scale investigation. They take information from wherever it comes from and treat it seriously."

However, he added: “The reason I say 'in a certain sense' is because, if there’s a major problem or issue in the world, they (the CFTC) are going to be sensitive to that and the oil investigation is a perfect example of that."

"If there are widespread public concerns expressed, they’re going to take a look to see if there’s anything amiss. In that sense the CFTC will respond to 'politics' in the broad sense of the word."

Allegations of manipulation in precious metals markets are not a new phenomenon.

However, this may be the first time they lead to action by the CFTC that could result in regulatory changes that would affect the price of an asset that could in turn affect the NAV of metals funds.

Silver Investigation: CFTC does U-turn

Similar allegations have been made about the price of gold.

Gold Conspiracy: Can you afford to ignore it?


"Again the length of time that these allegations have been around and the attention that they are given, may be why they are taking it seriously.” He said that whatever the outcome of the investigation, the CFTC might “feel that the attention and interest in this, even if the answer is that there’s nothing, is that they want the full and complete picture."

As such the silver investigation may be politically motivated. Aronow said: "This goes back to what I was saying about how 'politics' in the broad sense can affect investigations and that a government agency may, properly from my perspective, respond in different ways to a subject that has keen public interest and make sure they run an investigation that will satisfy the public attention or interest."

Mocek and Aronow’s comments suggest that there must be some validity to the complaints – as does the CFTC’s initiation of an investigation so soon after publishing a report that had rubbished similar allegations. However Aronow’s view that the CFTC can start investigations for political reasons, suggests that the CFTC may still be unconvinced by the allegations it is investigating in relation to the silver market.

Ted Butler said: "I do agree with Mocek that Chilton's calling for an investigation wasn't political in the normal sense of the word, as low silver prices aren't a political topic."

Mocek was aware of Ted Butler and his allegations. He said: "The rest of the story is that over the years, there have been many Butler subscribers who have made public allegations based on Ted Butler’s silver newsletter. Mr. Butler and his followers want silver prices to be higher."

Butler said: "While it's true to say I want higher silver prices, that's a personal matter that should have no reflection upon whether my allegations are correct. It's more than just my sense that the CFTC is biased in this matter. When the investigation was 'announced' by the Wall Street Journal, the CFTC took pains to say they were still skeptical but were relenting anyway. What kind of impartial footing does that set for the investigation? And almost 4 months (and 23 years) have gone by and still they haven't interviewed the one making the charges?"

For Butler, a major concern is that the CFTC remains unconvinced by the allegations and he believes that the regulator’s efforts to gather information from the silver analysts and investors who have complained in their hundreds about manipulation, is a delaying tactic and a red-herring.

A spokesman for the CFTC told Investegate that this was not the case: "It most definitely is genuine. The Commission would not waste the public’s time or staff’s time on a 'charade'."

Aussie
25-01-2009, 09:50 PM
Thanks for the post JBmurc, I would love to see some banks exposed over this ridiculous situation but once they start lookng down the "rabbit hole", who knows what they may see . . . probably the offices of JP Morgan and eventually the US Treasury. At that point the rabbit hole will then be covered over . . . :mad:

The authorities MUST keep people within the banking system and keep them away from sound money.

JBmurc
26-01-2009, 10:21 AM
-At current consumption rates it is likely that by 2034 there will no longer be silver left that can be economically mined, Diamond says, against estimates that gold production can be sustained until 2060.

"Roughly speaking, silver is twice as rare as gold in the long term since it is not recycled like gold. Silver is recycled only about 40% of the time compared to 99% for gold. This means that silver is literally disappearing, never to be recoverable."-

I see worldwide silver bullion waits are growing by ever month IMHO end of 09 if silver isn't over $20oz the wait will be upto 6 months even the most pessimistic metal trader will see Silver rocket in price just like oil did last year

peat
26-01-2009, 11:17 AM
global gann looking for another push up in the 'extremely mature' bear rally. and then the opposite.

not sure if this link is postable or not.

http://98.129.175.114/webinar/2009/01/15-deflationary-culminations/sub-caliber-4/index.htm

JBmurc
30-01-2009, 05:18 PM
Well we can't be far away from a major rise in silver I see the price of 1kg silver bullion at the NZmint is now $940nzd with no idea of time to be delivered just a prob April was only couple months ago I brought 10kilos at under $700 delivered only 6weeks later
Now as NZ mint gets all it's silver from the perth mint which is one of the world's major mints what does this show us ? Supply no where keeping up with demand .....if you had to wait that long for Gold it would be on the 6pm news(be that anything that has never been hard to buy).....time is not on the major Shorter's side ....you can fool the people some of the time but not all the time...

AMR
31-01-2009, 07:12 AM
I think silver is still considered "risky" assets and as such won't stage a full bull market until the equity markets recover somewhat.

Looking more towards silver stocks to take advantage of this.

peat
31-01-2009, 07:24 AM
yeh AMR the gann global video I watched on silver distinguished it from gold in the sense that it was considered more of a industrial metal than an investment safe haven - and hence they see a down leg to come in sympathy with other commodities.
The fact that it is potentially both of these things appeals to me in the bigger time frame perspective.

now almost $NZ25 an ounce.

JBmurc
01-02-2009, 09:37 AM
Commodity Production Reserves Resource Base Reserves Resource Base
(. . . . . . . . . . . .Metric Tons. . . . . . . . . . . .) (… Years Remaining…)
Aluminum 30 million unlimited unlimited 100+ 100+
Copper 14 million 470 million 940 million 33+ 67+
Lead 2.6 million 67 million 140 million 23 48
Nickel 1.4 million 62 million 140 million 44 100
Zinc 8.5 million 220 million 460 million 26 54
Silver 20,000 270,000 570,000 14 29
Gold 2600 43,000 89,000 17 34
PGM 350 70,000 80,000 200 200+

at current production rates, we will run out of silver before we run out of any other metal. The USGS confirms and validates Friedman’s Theory.

these numbers are 4-5 yrs old have read else where silver will become uneconomic to mine in 24 yrs.

peat
03-02-2009, 09:04 AM
found a link on the CXC thread in the OZ stock forum that gave the ability to chart metals in any currency

heres the 6mth version of Silver against NZD

arco
03-02-2009, 12:56 PM
Do you have the link Peat ?

Thks - arco

peat
03-02-2009, 01:29 PM
Spot silver looking good at USD12-50.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=silver&u=oz&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=3m (http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=silver&u=oz&submit1=Display+Chart&x=usd&r=3m)

from the CXC thread in ASX forum

peat
22-02-2009, 02:38 PM
I'm figuring $28 NZD /oz now. only a month ago it was $NZ21.

it's funny watching 'silver trader' throw all his coins over the floor as hes talking about holding "real" money. @5:44 in this vid

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LhwdoCMX4qA

XAG/USD has been sticking within its daily trend channel all the last month and has been overbought on the RSI all of Feb but only now is beginning to show signs of divergence, if I was a short/med term trader I might be lightening the load anytime now, but I'm not so will just see what happens.

trader10
23-02-2009, 10:19 PM
Commodity Production Reserves Resource Base Reserves Resource Base
(. . . . . . . . . . . .Metric Tons. . . . . . . . . . . .) (… Years Remaining…)
Aluminum 30 million unlimited unlimited 100+ 100+
Copper 14 million 470 million 940 million 33+ 67+
Lead 2.6 million 67 million 140 million 23 48
Nickel 1.4 million 62 million 140 million 44 100
Zinc 8.5 million 220 million 460 million 26 54
Silver 20,000 270,000 570,000 14 29
Gold 2600 43,000 89,000 17 34
PGM 350 70,000 80,000 200 200+

at current production rates, we will run out of silver before we run out of any other metal. The USGS confirms and validates Friedman’s Theory.

these numbers are 4-5 yrs old have read else where silver will become uneconomic to mine in 24 yrs.

Even if you not so keen on interviews "set up" like this one....you still can filter info out..... here Morgan gives some figures of prod rates - reserves more updated.

http://www.mininginteractive.com/videos/videos.php?link=camb200901dm

I see consolidation happening now.....normal after a intense run....but I see $16 breakout quite possible around April....... due to the quartely reports....

cheers

peat
25-02-2009, 05:06 AM
Silver broke the trendline channel convincingly today. only two days after RSI divergence

ananda77
27-02-2009, 08:33 AM
Silver broke the trendline channel convincingly today. only two days after RSI divergence

...silver at US$14.68 very likely topped after sentiment reached 91 - 95 (%) bulls for 9 days;

...breaking below its exponential curve seems providing a likely target of ~*US$8.50 = huge buying opportunity

...any close above 14.68 would confirm further upside

Trading Strategy: have cash will buy

Kind Regards

peat
27-02-2009, 08:52 AM
yup - almost a dollar down day which is pretty huge - silvers volatile reputation is well justified.

ananda77
27-02-2009, 09:06 AM
yup - almost a dollar down day which is pretty huge - silvers volatile reputation is well justified.

...guess, gold will follow suit with only weak support expected ~*US$900; initial gold after US$*900 = target:US$*680 initially

Trading Strategy: have cash will buy

Kind Regards

skeet
04-03-2009, 06:08 PM
Where is the best place to buy silver in New Zealand?? Cant seem to find much online.

shasta
04-03-2009, 07:04 PM
Where is the best place to buy silver in New Zealand?? Cant seem to find much online.

Here's a link to try

http://www.nzsilver.com/

I think the Perth Mint is the best bet, might be a delay getting any though

Crypto Crude
04-03-2009, 07:29 PM
I wouldnt recommend buying gold and silver for your own personal use...
these mint dealerships have to make it (?), deliver it, they have to make a decent profit, they are middle men (they say they are not)...ie they have to buy it, they always markup....
all in all, your commodity will have to rise 10% for you to breakeven on buy and sell costs... im not totally sure, but my perception is that it is a rather illiquid market as you are dealing with the secondary market....
...
I dont think I can recommend a suitable dealership, if you want the hard stuff in your hot little hand then its all the same I guess, but im sure there are other paths to gain ownership with much less cost....
...
any other opinions?
:cool:
.^sc

lakedaemonian
04-03-2009, 07:33 PM
CEF in Canuckistan ;)

peat
04-03-2009, 08:33 PM
Where is the best place to buy silver in New Zealand?? Cant seem to find much online.

on trade me I could quickly find at least 5x1kg bars going soon so theres about 170 oz's and there was a at least one lot of 50oz rounds going and quite a few 10oz lots as well

But most of its priced about a full third above spot.

theres definitely a premium for having the actual stuff in your paws these days. getting harder to find old colonial coins at spot prices too the bastards want a premium for those dirty old coins !

peat
16-03-2009, 05:35 PM
5kg
closing tomorrow
still under spot

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=207235067 and theres a couple of others

whereas all the 1oz rounds lots are selling for heaps over spot

I guess its all about the divisbility?

skeet
16-03-2009, 09:26 PM
I guess 1 oz for $40 "seems" cheaper to alot of people!

arco
17-03-2009, 09:13 AM
If you look on Ebay you will find 24,689 silver coins listed

+ 4,134 results found for SILVER BAR


and 93,853 items listed under silver in 'Coins'

......good choice

peat
18-03-2009, 09:07 AM
colin twiggs trading diary (from incredible charts) noted the divergence between gold and
1/ the USD which it normally negatively correlates to but is now moving in tandem with , and
2/ silver and platinum - he's suggesting that silver is still in a downtrend and needs to test its lows again

Ish
18-03-2009, 12:05 PM
Am I missing something here, or have I had one wine too many?


Silver is currently 12.72 ounce.


http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Other/auction-208326276.htm

converted into NZD and the difficulty of getting them.. I think they will go quite a bit higher than the $151 bid at the moment...

arco
18-03-2009, 12:07 PM
Whoops pressed the wrong button (I have had one wine too many)

Am I missing something here, or have I had one wine too many?


Silver is currently USD12.72 ounce.


http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-co...-208326276.htm (http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Other/auction-208326276.htm)

arco
18-03-2009, 12:09 PM
converted into NZD and the difficulty of getting them.. I think they will go quite a bit higher than the $151 bid at the moment...


Yep, but still 5 days to go before the auction closes - will be interesting to see how far this can go.
Already 27% over spot

peat
18-03-2009, 12:59 PM
the 5kg block sold for 4320 only a fraction above spot

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=207235067

arco
19-03-2009, 06:41 PM
http://koinpro.tripod.com/Books/ArtBarBook6thW.jpg

arco
19-03-2009, 06:48 PM
http://koinpro.tripod.com/BarsMedalsRounds/MustangRanchRound600W.jpg

JBmurc
19-03-2009, 07:12 PM
the 5kg block sold for 4320 only a fraction above spot

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Browse/Listing.aspx?id=207235067

That was sold cheap wish I had the spare funds would have paid alittle more still happy to holding 27.5kilo well below current spot

peat
19-03-2009, 08:01 PM
heheh arco interesting variations... the problem with the art bars is the price but yeh coolness -
does TA stand for tits and ass now?

will post this link here coz I'm lazy , dont see why the USD will collapse thread should have all the fun

Colin Twiggs summarizing the days events with good analysis of the majors
http://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/2009-03-19_forex.php

We may be entering a new era of volatile exchange rates as countries devalue their currencies to improve their competitive position vis-a-vis their major trading partners.

arco
20-03-2009, 12:44 PM
heheh arco interesting variations... the problem with the art bars is the price but yeh coolness -
does TA stand for tits and ass now?


Heres the link for you to check out Peat. :D

http://koinpro.tripod.com/BarsMedalsRounds/AdultPages.htm

peat
29-03-2009, 09:21 PM
quite a mission making silver coins



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkHFNnOK3Bg&feature=player_embedded


oh
and ewi are even more bearish about silver than gold.

arco
30-03-2009, 06:17 PM
quite a mission making silver coins



http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DkHFNnOK3Bg&feature=player_embedded


oh
and ewi are even more bearish about silver than gold.

Quite a nice flag (channel) at the moment.....will we get flag fall?

peat
16-05-2009, 05:50 PM
update on Silver vs NZD in this 6 mth chart

JBmurc
20-05-2009, 05:52 AM
silver up 3.7% overnight breakout soon.........

JBmurc
02-06-2009, 08:20 AM
well good to see Silver breakout of the resistance levels of late $18 soon could well test $20 this year the massive naked shorters of paper silver will be feeling the pain atm

also good to see the Silver to gold ratio starting to move in silvers favour at 62:1 with still pently more to go.........

JBmurc
02-06-2009, 04:03 PM
WHERE IS SILVER HEADING?
Roland Watson



Excitement has returned to the silver market as the sister metal of gold advances to highs not seen for ten months. Where is silver headed? Will it take out $21 with ease and head onto highs that evoke memories of 1979?

Here is the background to this latest installment in the silver bull story as shown in the chart below. After a grinding bear market of 23 years, silver entered a new bull market on 21st March 2003. This bull will last 20 to 30 years as we enter an age of increasingly greater inflationary forces brought on by Baby Boomer retiree demands, Peak Oil and Silver as well as the underlying up wave of the well known Kondratieff wave.



In terms of technical analysis, we believe silver will trace out an Elliott wave impulse which consists of three upwaves and two downwaves. The first upwave called wave 1 (top of graph circled "1") started on the 21st March 2003 and ended an exact Fibonacci 5 years later on the 21st March 2008. Silver is now in wave 2 (circled 2 in bottom right corner) and despite what you may read about a renewed silver bull, this is in fact a rally within this ongoing wave 2 correction. The reason we believe this is twofold. Firstly, it is unlikely that a 5 year bull move will be followed by a correction wave that only lasts 8 months (13% of the wave 1 duration). Secondly, silver corrections tend to be protracted as we can see in the smaller wave 2 and wave 4 corrections of 2005 and 2007 which you can see marked on the chart.

Our expectation is that this rally will approach the March 2008 highs of $21 but not decisively take them out. This is what we call a wave B rally. Wave A took 8 months to complete (another Fibonacci number) and this wave B will likely take as long to complete. If the wave B began in November 2008, we would expect it to finish sometime this summer.

Wave B will be a 3-wave affair with an initial up move, a pullback and a final burst to a climax. The diagram shows these three components of the B wave rally as they unfold before our eyes. After that silver will experience another multi-month drop which will take it possibly down to the low $10s at worst before the final death throes of the wave 2 finish to usher in wave 3.

The fundamentals that will propel wave 3 will be similar to wave 1 as the economy recovers, silver demand picks up industrially but again inflationary pressures begin to bear as commodity demand from China and elsewhere tightens. The inflationary effects of the worldwide credit crunch bailout will also finally filter through but we also expect Peak Oil to finally and decisively appear and oil to breach $200 and beyond. Wave 3 will occupy most of the next decade.

Wave 3 will not be the biggest move which is reserved for the final wave 5 blow off which will happen in the 2020s. This will be the equivalent of the 1980 blow off and silver will by then be in the hundreds of dollars as peak silver now gets a grip as well as the US dollar sinking under the combined effects of the Baby Boomers bankrupting the Medicare and Medicaid systems. You will just not believe how silver will perform in those days ahead but for now it is enough to consider your increasing silver hoard and expect great things.

In the meantime, silver continues to whipsaw and entertain its old friend volatility in this deflationary correction wave 2. Those who buy silver now and have a 10-20 year horizon will not be disappointed. Those who live for the week or month are advised to hold onto their silver positions but expect a multi-month peak in the summer months ahead.

Further analysis of silver can be had by going to our silver blog at http://silveranalyst.blogspot.com where readers can obtain a free issue of The Silver Analyst and learn about subscription details.

JBmurc
03-06-2009, 08:57 AM
Bull market in silver about to leg up to $17 on it's way to re-test 10yr highs

arco
03-06-2009, 09:21 AM
Bull market in silver about to leg up to $17 on it's way to re-test 10yr highs

Where the recent bottom shows circa $9 (Dec 08) the plot appears to have printed a Bullish Bat type pattern. This is often followed by a Butterfly pattern, and if that is the case the price could be heading for the early 20's

arco

JBmurc
03-06-2009, 11:33 AM
Where the recent bottom shows circa $9 (Dec 08) the plot appears to have printed a Bullish Bat type pattern. This is often followed by a Butterfly pattern, and if that is the case the price could be heading for the early 20's

arco

sounds good to me silver's just gone through $16oz go you good thing my 30kilos of bullion worth few more grand now

peat
03-06-2009, 12:23 PM
yes its all good stuff for my account and the value of the coins that I've been continuing to accumulate too. (not quite on your scale JBMurc but still...)

the kiwi $ price of silver is getting a bit hit by NZD rise tho.

JBmurc
05-06-2009, 03:29 PM
-- rang up the NZ mint before see what their current price for silver bullion is ....
. currently the NZ mint will sell ya Kg bar for $1080 30% over spot while they will buy it off ya for $750ish or 4% less than spot ,Know wonder Trademe does so well

seems like only couple months back I brought some of the cheapest 1kg silver off NZmint for $650 while tradme sellers were after 700-750 now it's round the other way crazy pays to look round

I also read today that each US household is over $500,000 in DEBT to bail out the US deficit

Theirs at est. 20.99B ounces of silver remaining in the world in all forms (mostly jewelry and silverware).

Is 3.5oz per person in the world which will reduce in time as we use more than produce simple simple math

JBmurc-got my 1000oz

peat
27-06-2009, 11:44 AM
a bit of a ramp for silver in the Herald today

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10580909

seems Rich Dad Poor Dad guru Robert Kiyosaki in his recent tours here has been insistent on the merits of investing in silver. allegedly he owns silver mines.

the author after stating "But how Kiwis invest in the precious metal is a bit of a closely held secret. I certainly got a few "dunnos" when I started asking around" then goes on to answer that question.

macduffy
27-06-2009, 12:13 PM
The article misses the obvious, an investment in CXC, the ASX listed CDI ( CHESS Depositary Interest ) of Coeur D'Alene Mines, CDE in the States.

But this is well known to this forum's silver fanciers!

;)

JBmurc
30-06-2009, 10:31 AM
The article misses the obvious, an investment in CXC, the ASX listed CDI ( CHESS Depositary Interest ) of Coeur D'Alene Mines, CDE in the States.

But this is well known to this forum's silver fanciers!

;)

other miners with good silver interest are TRY & CCU both have good managerment an very postive mid term outlooks with both silver an gold to make new record highs ..


History of silver

http://www.promail.co.nz/link.php?M=225982&N=1161&L=1033&F=H

JBmurc
06-07-2009, 08:43 PM
-going keep adding to my bullion holding not far from 1000oz

-http://news.goldseek.com/GATA/1246860420.php

JBmurc
07-07-2009, 07:37 PM
Checkout the chart in the link below 15-20yrs silver>> $$10,000oz NZD- priceless ?? going be part of my retirement plan.

http://www.newscientist.com/data/images/archive/2605/26051202.jpg

peat
07-07-2009, 07:52 PM
and one of the smallest %'s met by recycling. which is surprising as I thought a lot of silver came from old stuff.
I hope you're right JBMurc at $10k/oz even my measly holding will provide a nice nest egg, and I do intend to keep buying as cash flow allows.
My nephew gave me an Australian Proof 1 oz silver coin which has an excellent quality about it. Worth more as a collectible at this stage but maybe not if you are right !! :D

JBmurc
07-07-2009, 08:26 PM
and one of the smallest %'s met by recycling. which is surprising as I thought a lot of silver came from old stuff.
I hope you're right JBMurc at $10k/oz even my measly holding will provide a nice nest egg, and I do intend to keep buying as cash flow allows.
My nephew gave me an Australian Proof 1 oz silver coin which has an excellent quality about it. Worth more as a collectible at this stage but maybe not if you are right !! :D

I think the reason why recycling is falling is the fact that unlike in the past with large use silver was used in sterling,coin currencys today silver's being used in far more micro usages like electric chip's on credit cards etc.

don't was price silver will get too in 15-20yrs if it all but gone + the inflatation of fiat paper currency your price silver in it's could be even more than 10k eitherway it'll be alot more than now

TTrader
08-07-2009, 10:54 AM
Where is the best place to buy 1oz Silver coins right now?... There seem to be some pretty good deals on Trademe with packs of x10 1oz coins ect. These seem to be cheaper than placing a 10oz order with the NZ Mint... Alternatively does anyone know of any Auckland based coin dealers that will clear out 10oz at a time for a reasonable price?

JBmurc
08-07-2009, 11:07 AM
Where is the best place to buy 1oz Silver coins right now?... There seem to be some pretty good deals on Trademe with packs of x10 1oz coins ect. These seem to be cheaper than placing a 10oz order with the NZ Mint... Alternatively does anyone know of any Auckland based coin dealers that will clear out 10oz at a time for a reasonable price?

I've brought most of my 1oz ferns,malpes etc of trademe(22oz-30oz)currently your pay $32-$35ea
the real free bullion market of NZ is- Trademe -
As the NZ mint are rouges with high premiums to their favour like the fact if you brought 1oz of the mint then wanted to sell it back to them the diff is like 40%
10% higher than spot to buy 30% less than spot to sell to them.

TTrader
08-07-2009, 11:16 AM
I've brought most of my 1oz ferns,malpes etc of trademe(22oz-30oz)currently your pay $32-$35ea
the real free bullion market of NZ is- Trademe -
As the NZ mint are rouges with high premiums to their favour like the fact if you brought 1oz of the mint then wanted to sell it back to them the diff is like 40%
10% higher than spot to buy 30% less than spot to sell to them.

The NZ Mint have always charged a lot. Have bought some larger bars from them before which were reasonably priced. Looking on Trademe now has anyone dealt with the trader "bullionnz"... His prices are very reasonable and his feedback looks good. Might buy a few oz though him and then see if I can get further discounts buying direct.

JBmurc
08-07-2009, 11:30 AM
The NZ Mint have always charged a lot. Have bought some larger bars from them before which were reasonably priced. Looking on Trademe now has anyone dealt with the trader "bullionnz"... His prices are very reasonable and his feedback looks good. Might buy a few oz though him and then see if I can get further discounts buying direct.

Yeah I've brought alot off- bullionnz,NZsilver etc haven't had any trouble with buying bullion off- Trademe

CAM
08-07-2009, 12:33 PM
Yeah I've brought alot off- bullionnz,NZsilver etc haven't had any trouble with buying bullion off- Trademe


So thats who I am competing against!!...haha.
Maybe we should get a roster sorted and buy on alternate weeks so we don't push the price up!

I have bought off bullionz as well...no problems at all.
Also has a website so you can contact them away from Trademe.

http://www.geocities.com/bullionnz/

I only buy when cash allows...so not big amounts.

peat
08-07-2009, 01:26 PM
Looking on Trademe now has anyone dealt with the trader "bullionnz"... His prices are very reasonable and his feedback looks good. Might buy a few oz though him and then see if I can get further discounts buying direct.

I have dealt with them as well. In fact they once replaced at their cost an oz I bought that went missing in the post. I never expected them to but they freely offered. I was impressed.

JBmurc
08-07-2009, 01:40 PM
So thats who I am competing against!!...haha.
Maybe we should get a roster sorted and buy on alternate weeks so we don't push the price up!

I have bought off bullionz as well...no problems at all.
Also has a website so you can contact them away from Trademe.

http://www.geocities.com/bullionnz/

I only buy when cash allows...so not big amounts.

Yeah maybe back when the 1oz traded around $23oz-$29oz brought a heap back then.
like yourself I'm buying small amounts now an again like yesterday I brought 3 silver ferns in capsules for $96
Will keep adding to my holding silver bullion's a real no-brainer long term

TTrader
08-07-2009, 02:28 PM
Alright thanks for the replies....

Up until now I have been focusing on collecting gold coins.. Have x2 kilo silver bars from the Perth Mint tucked away but figure ill start collecting silver coins as they offer the best value for me now...

What would you all recommend collecting?... Best to stick with the Maples, Australian Minted and NZ Minted?... Is it worth paying extra for the American minted coins?... Knowing these carry a face value...

JBmurc
08-07-2009, 06:31 PM
Being an avid long time American coin collector I would generally advise against collecting coins if it's silver you want to invest in, unless you stick solely with eagle bullion coins. The grading of coins is the downfall of most collectors, buying at a half or full grade higher than a coins is actually is. Then when its time to sell, if the dealer is honest, they will grade the coin properly and therefore you can realise a capital loss.

I'd say any coin or bar meant for bullion is the way to go.

Yeah I agree if your investing for the silver value 1kg bullion bars round $900 atm is the best way to buy.
Still I have half of my 30kilo+ Silver bullion holding in 10oz & 1oz coins & bars because my view is when Silver goes up to the very high levels needed to make mining under the sea viable etc a 1oz will be much easier to sell on trademe for say $500-$1000ea rather than trying to sell 1-5kg bars for 32k-100k much like the fact you don't see any 1kilo gold bars for sale to few a buyers..
.

CAM
08-07-2009, 07:21 PM
So thats who I am competing against!!...haha.
Maybe we should get a roster sorted and buy on alternate weeks so we don't push the price up!

I have bought off bullionz as well...no problems at all.
Also has a website so you can contact them away from Trademe.

http://www.geocities.com/bullionnz/

I only buy when cash allows...so not big amounts.


They have a new website with some more up to date pricing

http://www.bullionnz.com

JBmurc
09-07-2009, 09:30 AM
So that's who I am competing against!!...haha.
Maybe we should get a roster sorted and buy on alternate weeks so we don't push the price up!

I have bought off bullion as well...no problems at all.
Also has a website so you can contact them away from Trademe.

http://www.geocities.com/bullionnz/

I only buy when cash allows...so not big amounts.

Well tried to place a bid on a nice 10oz coin of BullionNZ this morning to be told I'm now blacklisted by him real nice after buying over $10,000+ worth of bullion an many positive feedback as I always paid straight away, Offensive very senstive seller so you don't have to worry about me competing for BullionNZ silver will be supporting the other sellers now

JBmurc
09-07-2009, 11:09 AM
Maybe you've been buying to cheap from him & he's sick of it ;)

Yeah must be--In a silver report e-mail I get from Jason H he recommend outside US buyers to buy at -www.momssilvershop.com
Which I just did I brought 20x1oz buffalo bullion coins at 15.80USD with moms july discount on Inter freight to my address came to $540 NZD or $27.00oz NZD ea
will be buying my silver bullion of Momsilvershop from now on with such a discount I don't mind waiting a couple weeks

CycleTrader
09-07-2009, 12:20 PM
JB Murc - momssilvershop is actually Jason's mother right? I get Jason's e-mail as well and I can't help thinking that after building up his online credibility over a good few years, he's now into the cashing in phase and doing pretty well through his trading business?? Even though he would say its still only a very small part of his business and he's doing if for the greater good...etc etc.

Still, good prices are good prices relatively speaking!!

Any more detail on what you did to p**s bullion NZ off - sounds intriguing!

CT

JBmurc
09-07-2009, 12:48 PM
JB Murc - momssilvershop is actually Jason's mother right? I get Jason's e-mail as well and I can't help thinking that after building up his online credibility over a good few years, he's now into the cashing in phase and doing pretty well through his trading business?? Even though he would say its still only a very small part of his business and he's doing if for the greater good...etc etc.

Still, good prices are good prices relatively speaking!!

Any more detail on what you did to p**s bullion NZ off - sounds intriguing!

CT

Yeah very good prices just compare to what BullionNZ is now charging I remember looking at the Momssilvershope back when I was buying 100's of 1oz Maples,ferns etc off BullionNZ for $24oz-$28oz to buy 1oz elsewhere like from the US wasn't that much of a discount once freight was taken into the costs ,but now it's much cheaper too some 20%-40%..the blacklist may turn out to be a major postive for my bullion buying

CAM
09-07-2009, 08:13 PM
Cheers for that site. Prices look good. How much was the shipping to NZ?
Might have to save my pingers and buy in higher volumes to make it worthwhile.
Shipping time dosn't bother me.....as long as it arrives!
Interesting you bought buffalos....and not the more recognised bullion.
But I suppose they were at a sharper price...and bullion is bullion no matter the form.

Didn't realise bullionnz was that volatile. They should remember its a small country they play in.

shasta
09-07-2009, 08:51 PM
Yeah very good prices just compare to what BullionNZ is now charging I remember looking at the Momssilvershope back when I was buying 100's of 1oz Maples,ferns etc off BullionNZ for $24oz-$28oz to buy 1oz elsewhere like from the US wasn't that much of a discount once freight was taken into the costs ,but now it's much cheaper too some 20%-40%..the blacklist may turn out to be a major postive for my bullion buying

I'm still wanting to collect those China Panda silver coins...

If you come across them in your travels could you let me know :cool:

Edit: Found a few on Trademe @ $106 each!

CAM
10-07-2009, 07:45 AM
I'm still wanting to collect those China Panda silver coins...

If you come across them in your travels could you let me know :cool:

Edit: Found a few on Trademe @ $106 each!

Maybe keep this info handy in your search.

How to spot a fake silver panda......

http://reviews.ebay.com/How-to-spot-a-fake-silver-panda_W0QQugidZ10000000000966183

JBmurc
10-07-2009, 12:00 PM
I'm still wanting to collect those China Panda silver coins...

If you come across them in your travels could you let me know :cool:

Edit: Found a few on Trademe @ $106 each!

Yeah I have seen the odd China Panda I don't see why they are so much more expensive than other high Quality 1oz bullion rounds like the maples,the China Panda must be alot more expensive to bring into NZ.
Personal I like to buy silver bullion cheap as possible like the buffalo bullion coins at $27oz NZD

In time when silver goes up in $1-$5 overnight $100oz+ etc price,
will the Panda's still command such a premium over other .999% pure 1oz coins

shasta
10-07-2009, 06:10 PM
Maybe keep this info handy in your search.

How to spot a fake silver panda......

http://reviews.ebay.com/How-to-spot-a-fake-silver-panda_W0QQugidZ10000000000966183

Cheers for that CAM

I shall be inspecting my new purchases very closely!

JBMurc - The Panda is considered lucky in China & could well be why they are at a premium, or perhaps just demand, they are cute ;)

JBmurc
10-07-2009, 06:52 PM
Cheers for that CAM

I shall be inspecting my new purchases very closely!

JBMurc - The Panda is considered lucky in China & could well be why they are at a premium, or perhaps just demand, they are cute ;)

Yeah real lucky in filling up the sellers pockets be interesting if they also command such a premium in china.

arco
11-07-2009, 10:03 AM
I think I've mentioned this before, but be careful with the Chinese silver coins as there are fakes around.

http://www.china-mint.info/fake-coin-images.html

Blacklisted sellers (so far)

http://www.china-mint.info/fakechinesecoinsellers.html

arco

JBmurc
13-07-2009, 09:45 AM
Man Silver's getting hammered of late silver to gold ratio back out to 72:1
-10 times more than it should be going of geo's view of there being no more than 6-7 times more silver than gold in the ground..
A closer to fair value in the gold silver ratio in it's self would be huge for silver investors
Going forward with less silver above ground than gold it's really going be interesting to see how it plays out...

peat
13-07-2009, 10:48 AM
its an industrial metal and hence gets treated as a play on the economy like oil etc which is also down a lot.
I think it might support at 12.35 ish for another rally but EWI say both gold and silver are in C wave down and look to new lows with low points in 2012. yes they're very bearish... I'm thinking they might be right so am taking a very long term perspective.

TTrader
13-07-2009, 11:51 AM
its an industrial metal and hence gets treated as a play on the economy like oil etc which is also down a lot.
I think it might support at 12.35 ish for another rally but EWI say both gold and silver are in C wave down and look to new lows with low points in 2012. yes they're very bearish... I'm thinking they might be right so am taking a very long term perspective.

Still a long term perspective on these metals has to be reasonable for buyers... At least prices will stay stable for now... Just continue to build those stockpiles and start sitting on them....

JBmurc
15-07-2009, 04:53 PM
Here's my small bullion holding 970oz or 30kilo 10oz
got another 60x1oz coins from the US to turn up yet.. maybe 100kilo in 2yrs...
more than happy to give people my fiat paper for real hard currency 10ys-20yr left before only the super rich will hold decent amounts

shasta
15-07-2009, 05:50 PM
Here's my small bullion holding 970oz or 30kilo 10oz
got another 60x1oz coins from the US to turn up yet.. maybe 100kilo in 2yrs...
more than happy to give people my fiat paper for real hard currency 10ys-20yr left before only the super rich will hold decent amounts

Very impressive there JBMurc ;)

I'm slowly accummulating some silver coins, & see on trade me there are plenty of overpriced coins on offer!

The 1kg Silver bars seem pricey, compared to the PoS :rolleyes:

JBmurc
15-07-2009, 05:58 PM
Very impressive there JBMurc ;)

I'm slowly accummulating some silver coins, & see on trade me there are plenty of overpriced coins on offer!

The 1kg Silver bars seem pricey, compared to the PoS :rolleyes:

Yeah there some dreamers on trade-me still it's a free market have been out bid by many
a keen buyer have my eye on a couple 10z bars on trade me atm
brought some Obama 09 1oz coins off momssilvershop today round $27oz NZ inc post

Should have a read of my latest post on the gold tread relates to Silver bullion production slowing up I even see Moms are running out of some of their bullion

shasta
15-07-2009, 06:13 PM
Yeah there some dreamers on trade-me still it's a free market have been out bid by many
a keen buyer have my eye on a couple 10z bars on trade me atm
brought some Obama 09 1oz coins off momssilvershop today round $27oz NZ inc post

Should have a read of my latest post on the gold tread relates to Silver bullion production slowing up I even see Moms are running out of some of their bullion

Will do, cheers bud :cool:

arco
16-07-2009, 01:33 PM
.

There is still the possibility of lower prices now the up-trend line has been broken.

Lets see what happens once the action test from below

http://www.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/214ca631bc.gif (http://www.freeimagehosting.net/)

JBmurc
16-07-2009, 02:50 PM
I'm pretty happy with my latest 41 x 1oz purchase the NZD:USD must be stronger only paid $26.80oz ea inc freight from moms

TTrader
17-07-2009, 11:06 AM
I'm pretty happy with my latest 41 x 1oz purchase the NZD:USD must be stronger only paid $26.80oz ea inc freight from moms

JBmurc are you simply heading down to your local bank branch and doing an international transfer with their swift code?

Looking to make my first purchase from moms this week.

JBmurc
17-07-2009, 11:14 AM
JBmurc are you simply heading down to your local bank branch and doing an international transfer with their swift code?

Looking to make my first purchase from moms this week.

Na credit card bit lazy no-doult costs me more still I'm happy with what the total cost came to.
Got a Kilo bar on trade-me yesterday at $825 which is cheap,Is the odd cheap deal on trade-me.

CAM
22-07-2009, 12:33 PM
Seems to be heaps of silver rounds on Trademe at the moment. The price is slowly coming down. Might not be worth buying from overseas soon!

JBmurc
22-07-2009, 02:02 PM
Seems to be heaps of silver rounds on Trademe at the moment. The price is slowly coming down. Might not be worth buying from overseas soon!

Yeah I see that the silver at momssilvershop is up about $1oz usd so yeah if you can buy under 30oz NZD for the 1oz an under $27oz NZD for the 1kgs is good buying

CAM
22-07-2009, 03:17 PM
Yeah I use Bullionnz as a bit of a marker.... I see on there website they have Maples for $28.25 each. It wasn't long ago they would have been making good margins on 1 oz rounds so maybe they have stocked up along with a few other sellers like NZS...hence the volume on trademe. I am guessing the price movement differential to moms is to do with the time the Kiwi sellers order the silver...until the time it arrives here. Whereas moms is tied a bit closer to the actual silver spot price

JBmurc
22-07-2009, 08:27 PM
Yeah I use Bullionnz as a bit of a marker.... I see on there website they have Maples for $28.25 each. It wasn't long ago they would have been making good margins on 1 oz rounds so maybe they have stocked up along with a few other sellers like NZS...hence the volume on trademe. I am guessing the price movement differential to moms is to do with the time the Kiwi sellers order the silver...until the time it arrives here. Whereas moms is tied a bit closer to the actual silver spot price

Yeah for sure it's best to keep an eye on prices every time you go to buy Trademe-Moms-NZ mint

main thing is to buy before the rest of the world wakes up to how undervalued the cheapest soon to be mostly gone PGM

JBmurc
22-07-2009, 09:01 PM
the optimum Gold silver ratio -some good points worth a read




http://www.rapidtrends.com/the-optimum-gold-silver-ratio/

CAM
23-07-2009, 09:19 AM
good buying if you have the cash
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/New-Zealand-Decimal/Silver/auction-231848111.htm

JBmurc
23-07-2009, 09:55 AM
good buying if you have the cash
http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/New-Zealand-Decimal/Silver/auction-231848111.htm

Yeah real cheap at his buynow 26oz ea he must have brought them cheap or he's not going make much if anything once Trademe takes their cut.....

NZ mint are still asking NZD- $59oz ea NZsilver-28.50 Moms-$25.50+ freight

I see he also has 20x at 25ea buynow cheap cheap

TTrader
23-07-2009, 10:16 AM
Might have to take those coins..

The 9.2kg auction is also very reasonable value if you have some cash sitting round...

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Australia/auction-230984498.htm

JBmurc
23-07-2009, 10:55 AM
Might have to take those coins..

The 9.2kg auction is also very reasonable value if you have some cash sitting round...

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Australia/auction-230984498.htm

yeah $26.90oz not bad

CAM
23-07-2009, 03:40 PM
Yeah real cheap at his buynow 26oz ea he must have brought them cheap or he's not going make much if anything once Trademe takes their cut.....

NZ mint are still asking NZD- $59oz ea NZsilver-28.50 Moms-$25.50+ freight

I see he also has 20x at 25ea buynow cheap cheap


Haha...just noticed Bullionnz bought them....must be trying to keep the price up!

JBmurc
23-07-2009, 04:14 PM
Haha...just noticed Bullionnz bought them....must be trying to keep the price up!

yeah must be cheaper than what he's buying them ,just got another 41x1oz silver rounds from Moms 21xObama's (I've never seen here) +20 mixture 1oz average cost $26.80ea including freight

TTrader
27-07-2009, 07:58 PM
POS back over 14USD

CAM
31-07-2009, 12:36 PM
Has been interesting watching the price of silver drop on TM. There are still the overpriced ones of course.
It looks like the main "dealers" operate on a high turnover, small margin model and they currently have plenty of stock.
With the green shoots and the sharemarket providing some decent returns of late the number of buyers might be slowing up for them. They might have to drop further to move the stock.

CAM
01-08-2009, 02:21 PM
Demand for silver set to sky rocket....hahaha

http://www.stuff.co.nz/technology/2709227/Spaceman-brings-back-silver-coated-undies

JBmurc
01-08-2009, 03:14 PM
Has been interesting watching the price of silver drop on TM. There are still the overpriced ones of course.
It looks like the main "dealers" operate on a high turnover, small margin model and they currently have plenty of stock.
With the green shoots and the sharemarket providing some decent returns of late the number of buyers might be slowing up for them. They might have to drop further to move the stock.

personal I brought silver bullion because it's both a bad market(on the back of gold safe buying etc) an also through market growth through Industrie growth if you think the world will keep an have more needs for Electronics,Electric cars,cellphones,solar etc
An the fact that ever year 100m+ oz of silver has to come from scrap
It shouldn't take much to spur Silver to a fair price level getting rid of the massive 200milloz paper shorts would be great start....

arco
03-08-2009, 04:46 PM
Silver Coin Calculators




Australian Silver Coin Calculator (http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/australian-silver-coin-values.htm)
Canadian Silver Coin Calculator (http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/canadian-silver-coin-values.htm)
New Zealand Silver Coin Calculator (http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/new-zealand-silver-coin-values.htm)
Panama Silver Coin Calculator (http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/panama-silver-coin-values.htm)
United States Silver Coin Calculator (http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/united-states-silver-coin-values.htm)


http://www.australian-threepence.com/silver-coin-values/new-zealand-silver-coin-values.htm

peat
03-08-2009, 05:51 PM
I'll just comment on that NZ silver coin link page arco just posted and say that it seems to me the half crown and the crown years are inaccurate.

For half crown the years of production with %50 silver are:
1/2 Crown (1933-1935)
1/2 Crown (1937-1946)

and for the whole Crown it was produced in 1935 1949 and 1953 and only the 1949 one has silver content (tho the 1935 one is very rare and valuable)

I had a bookmark on the RBNZ site which gave all the mintings of historical coins but it seems to have gone and a quick search couldnt find a replacement - I will ask them about that !

this is from my own spreadsheet

NZ
1949 Crown 0.4546
1 Florin (1937-1946) 0.1818
1/2 Crown (1933-1946) 0.2273
6 Pence (1933-1946) 0.0454
1 shilling (1933-1946) 0.0908
3 pence (1937-1946) 0.0227

JBmurc
31-08-2009, 08:34 AM
IN the days when governments believed that their currencies needed to be anchored to something real as a means of ensuring the worth of the paper and coin in circulation, everyone chose gold. Except China -- it backed its currency with silver.

Silver lies deep in the China psyche. The white metal was the standard for currency from the time of the Ming dynasty until November 4, 1935. It was abandoned then only because, as investors sought safe havens during the Great Depression, the price of silver rose sharply. China could not control the silver price, and large amounts of the metal flowed out of the country, causing financial dislocation internally.

In the past few years, China has deregulated gold sales internally and there has been much focus on demand for the yellow metal.

In 2007, Chinese gold consumption grew 60 per cent over the preceding year.

But now we see a video posted on YouTube -- a news item on the English service of China Central Television. You can watch while the newsreader extols the advantages of silver over gold. For one thing, the report says, it is a lot cheaper to buy into and, for another, silver has been undervalued for several years compared with gold -- in 2007, gold was 50 times more expensive than silver. At Friday's close, gold was 64 times more expensive per ounce -- more than double the historical ratio.

David Thurtell, Citigroup's commodities expert in London, has long been watching the relative performance of the two precious metals. So we asked him his present view, and he emailed this: "Still prefer silver to gold. I don't see inflation as a problem (and hence gold's upside is not as strong as some suggest) and silver is leveraged to an industrial recovery. Gold will suffer from what I see as an ongoing recovery in global equity markets and the world economy generally."

So, we hear you ask, where is all this going?

Among the many barely noticed announcements during the week was one from Malachite Resources (MAR). This company has spent the past few weeks promoting its Conrad silver project in northern NSW to Chinese investors. Conrad closed in 1957 due to low metal prices, with most of its silver still in the ground.

There's 9.6 million ounces of silver available, along with economic quantities of zinc, lead, tin and indium. Malachite says that it has signed a confidentiality agreement with one of China's largest state-owned mining groups, and other potential Chinese investors will be out to look at the project during September.

Malachite's news should be seen against the background that Chinese companies, while picking over our iron ore, base metals and coal, have shown little interest in gold investment here. But it seems silver is a different story.

Pure Speculation has previously drawn attention to one other silver exposure to China in the form of Sinovus Mining (SNV), but a recent flurry of buying seems to have died off. This may be due to the fact that the company seems more focused on getting into coal production than advancing its Xiangguang silver project west of Beijing.

Another silver play that continues to fly under the radar -- although with no known Chinese connections -- is Cobar Consolidated Resources (CCU) and its Wonawinta project near the NSW mining town of that name. CCU recently increased its resource to 44.3 million ounces, at an average grade of 48 grams/tonne. Its joint venture partner CBH Resources (CBH) has its hands full at present with its lead-zinc ventures and has decided not to keep up its contributions, and will see its interest dilute.

macduffy
31-08-2009, 09:42 AM
Yes, good article, JB.

It should be noted however that it comes from Rbin Bromby's column "Pure Speculation" in The Australian.

Speculative or not?

JBmurc
31-08-2009, 10:16 AM
Yes, good article, JB.

It should be noted however that it comes from Rbin Bromby's column "Pure Speculation" in The Australian.

Speculative or not?

Yes for sure what isn't though is the fact china now allows it's people to buy an hold silver bullion ,Now the fact is the Silver market is very small compared to the gold one if the Chinese even put a small amount of their savings into silver bullion it will lift the silver price massively IMHO as long as they buy real silver bullion an not paper silver ETF's which is well documented as being well short of real silver backing.

arco
31-08-2009, 02:35 PM
The Ichimolu chart gave a weak bullish signal at the yellow blob.

Price action is currently trapped between an up-trend and a down-trend line, so Silver is in limbo land until we see which one will break.

http://i30.tinypic.com/29c4brm.gif

peat
02-09-2009, 07:32 AM
seems like gold and silver are a bit disconnected from everything else last night.....

JBmurc
02-09-2009, 07:56 AM
seems like gold and silver are a bit disconnected from everything else last night.....

Yeah silver going though $15oz looks very bullish of late.

-Shasta I spotted on Momsilvershop some- panda 1oz silver bullion coins -alot cheaper than rip off rumy on trade-mes $106 think your get them for under $30nzd delivered

TTrader
02-09-2009, 10:32 AM
Yeah silver going though $15oz looks very bullish of late.

-Shasta I spotted on Momsilvershop some- panda 1oz silver bullion coins -alot cheaper than rip off rumy on trade-mes $106 think your get them for under $30nzd delivered

Appears to be out of stock :(... Have sent her an email though, hopefully get a bit of notice when she has some more.

JBmurc
02-09-2009, 10:52 AM
Appears to be out of stock :(... Have sent her an email though, hopefully get a bit of notice when she has some more.

yeah might get some myself need 12x1oz to take my holding to 35kilo of silver bullion

JBmurc
03-09-2009, 07:48 AM
Onwards to $16oz go you good thing

arco
03-09-2009, 01:23 PM
The thick red line has been passed (see last chart).

Here's the weekly chart with the potential target zone.
The white zone is both a short term Butterfly and a longer term Gartley area.

Potential for a retrace when Silver reaches that zone.



http://i28.tinypic.com/97883p.gif

arco
03-09-2009, 01:38 PM
H1 chart.

Short term potential for a small retrace - max should be 15.15 - 15.18 area.

Yellow blob was the H1 day-trade entry/or pyramid spot.

http://i31.tinypic.com/724odw.gif

stevo1
08-09-2009, 05:50 PM
this clip off Youtube on chinese state television

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PqFpl31UwPI


For those of us old enough to remeber the communist Chinese edict to erradicate flys in China many years ago which was sort of a joke in the west at the time but low and behold the fly population at the time was eradicated(almost).

arco
09-09-2009, 08:12 PM
http://i26.tinypic.com/ekgvmw.jpg

Close to a turn perhaps
(http://i26.tinypic.com/ekgvmw.jpg)

stevo1
18-09-2009, 12:55 PM
Part of a report from Commoditieonline

Full article here

http://www.commodityonline.com/news/China-may-ban-export-of-gold-silver-21219-3-1.html


Here in China, our firm SinoLatin Capital has been approached by numerous Chinese companies specifically looking to acquire gold mines in Latin America. We've studied the market for some time and we see China making several Latin American gold mining acquisitions over the next few years. How can retail investors benefit from these trends? One interesting way to play the South American gold market is AngloGold Ashanti (AU



But back to China. How could China affect the price of gold? We live in China and spend a lot of time with local industry leaders and policy makers. We hear repeatedly that the time has come to think seriously about how to survive the perceived dollar devaluation. In some cases we note serious concern, and in other cases absolute dread over a perceived dollar crash.


Over the past six months Beijing has made a series of moves to protect itself against a dollar devaluation. In a recent "BRIC Summit" in Russia several months ago, Chinese leaders came out strongly in favor of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar (including the IMF's "SDR" currency). China is also quietly purchasing mining assets and gold bullion. But the government has recently gone further.
As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China. You could be jailed if caught with any in your possession. Beginning in 2009, in a stunning about-face, the central government removed all restrictions. In fact, as Mineweb and other sources report now it is actively pushing folks to buy some personal metal, with China’s Central Television, the main state-owned television company, running news programs cum infomercials, letting the public know just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

peat
01-10-2009, 11:15 AM
it looks like a bullish butterfly on silver has almost activated - possibly already has.
I almost made the point y'day that if it went this high it would trigger but didnt rate the possibility that highly.
a negative on this interpretation is that this pattern should really form after a decline whereas here its after a long price rise.... so lets see whether a new high or equal is hit. Im not trading this as such but I'm always happy for silver to rise :)

CAM
02-10-2009, 10:00 AM
Some people must be expecting it to soar....some good margins being made here!!

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Other/auction-244674651.htm

http://www.trademe.co.nz/Antiques-collectables/Coins/Other/auction-244678510.htm

31 grams(aaprox) = 1 ounce

peat
02-10-2009, 10:12 AM
rejected from that critical 16.70 area...

arco
02-10-2009, 01:02 PM
You have to laugh at their splurge

"*Silver has the most potential to increase in significant value.. "

Yeah right, if its that good why dont you hang on and make the fortune yourself.

JBmurc
03-10-2009, 08:26 AM
You have to laugh at their splurge

"*Silver has the most potential to increase in significant value.. "

Yeah right, if its that good why dont you hang on and make the fortune yourself.

yes buying 1grams or sterling is the most expensive way to buy into a real silver holding

guess thats the thing with holding pure silver if you wanted you could take your 1kilo bar an convert it to 1gram tabs you can for a cost---- going off that auction price of 1gram $16 the profit would be very large if the idots are keen to buy such a small amount

as for increase in value
I have average bullion holding cost $25oz
I know from looking at CCU costs of $20 per oz projected off recent reserve grades(CCU could well be in the top 10 silver producers in the world)thing is production of silver costs will only inflate from here as will the price of silver

currently my holding is half 1kilos other half 1oz 10oz going off average trade me sales of late I'm up round 20%