VTL - Vital Telecommunications (formerly Team Talk)

[bung5]

Could see the SP drift below $1

[couta1]

Could see the SP drift below $1
This is about to become my worst performing share in terms of percentage down and return (Basically the same as a basic savings account) still I won't be one of the panic sellers, good things take time aye and in this case more time than a mature block of mainland cheese:cool:

[babymonster]

i might get some while its cheap...

[BFG]

Oh dear back to $1.50 or below and a divvy cut by the looks of the latest news, a bigger red arrow:eek2:

Good thing I changed out TTK for PAY on the Stocktastic 2015 picks then eh??? :O

[couta1]

Good thing I changed out TTK for PAY on the Stocktastic 2015 picks then eh??? :O
I guess you'll be in for a dead cat bounce Mr Moose?

[The Grinch]

i might get some while its cheap...

My thoughts exactly. might wait till it levels out a bit...

[BFG]

I guess you'll be in for a dead cat bounce Mr Moose?

Per chance. I'll keep an eye on the sick kitty ;)

[noodles]

Just looking at the history of this train wreck.
It appears David Ware was selling after the full year report... $120K worth!

I wonder if his colorful language is starting to wear the patience of his shareholders? From his latest announcement. "We have not achieved some of the growth that we expected while a number of one-off items popped up and bit us on the arse"

Net Debt is $35mill (at 30June) and increasing. Westpac must be getting a little nervous. How the hell are they allowed to pay a dividend!

TTK joins CAV and PPL as likely contenders go to zero this year?

[percy]

Certainly great buying compared with buying on January 21st this year.Today you get 37% more shares for your money.!! Yeah right.!!
Jan 21st SP was $3.10. Today $2.25. SP has fallen 27.42%.
There appears to be a problem with this company !!! Big problem?
Above posted 24-10-2013.
Right on the money!!
And that big problem just keeps on getting bigger.!!!

[babymonster]

Above posted 24-10-2013.
Right on the money!!
And that big problem just keeps on getting bigger.!!!

I m glad I didn't go in when it was 160 last yr

[Beagle]

In summary, we understand what's gone wrong and have a solid strategy to deal
with the issues but nevertheless this is a very disappointing episode for a
company with a proud history and an exciting future" says Mr Ware.

Never had anything to do with this but gasped at the dramatic fall today and couldn't help bring up a five year chart and saw they were $2.30 five years ago.
Proud history when the SP has halved in the last five years, really ????? Looks like classic corporate spin doctoring to me.

[The Grinch]

Just looking at the history of this train wreck.
It appears David Ware was selling after the full year report... $120K worth!

I wonder if his colorful language is starting to wear the patience of his shareholders? From his latest announcement. "We have not achieved some of the growth that we expected while a number of one-off items popped up and bit us on the arse"

Net Debt is $35mill (at 30June) and increasing. Westpac must be getting a little nervous. How the hell are they allowed to pay a dividend!

TTK joins CAV and PPL as likely contenders go to zero this year?

Mmm correct me if I'm wrong but EBITDA was close to $16mil so TIE ratio still healthy. 17.5 cps last year was about 5.5mil out of the bank so 8cps this year will be 2.5ish. Even if they do get closer to $12-13mil EBITDA this year they will still be able to pay interest+dividends... no longer a healthy TIE and one would argue that you shouldn't use EBITDA for that ratio.

Definitely a concern and by no means is TTK now a boring dividend stock but I will keep a lazy eye on it - with the exception of purchasing farmside at the wrong time this company has been a good little ticker with a reg div for a long time. Your bound to get unfavourable headwinds once every decade or two.

Not saying it won't go to 0 but as far as risk vs reward goes I still think your better placed here than in some of these latest spec tech stocks.

Disc: I wouldn't follow my advice - I like CAV and this stock... can't say I like PPL but I'm on the wrong side of the liked list this year. Holding: PEB,DIL,HNZ,CAV,DPC

Cheers
TG

[bunter]

I sold when they bought Farmside, and broke even. This acquisition immediately reduced EPS and I wondered what other dumb things they might do.

David Ware writes in plain English and I like that. Doesn't mean he's a good businessman though.
IMO you can only mass send reports to shareholders from the south of France (like he did) when your company is humming.


MD Ware just sold 75,000. Must be planning another trip to Europe. Big fat sell this.

Two 'sell' signals back, from early September 2014, (MD sells) and cc June 14 (eps-unaccretive acquisition).

[noodles]

Definitely a concern and by no means is TTK now a boring dividend stock but I will keep a lazy eye on it
Yes. Things to watch:
-debt levels
-free cash flow
-refinancing progress
-capital spending

Good luck.

[couta1]

I m glad I didn't go in when it was 160 last yr
I think you mean $2.60?

[babymonster]

I think you mean $2.60?

No, I think it was oct last year, ttk was like 1.55-1.65. And then early 1.60 again in dec.

[couta1]

No, I think it was oct last year, ttk was like 1.55-1.65. And then early 1.60 again in dec.
Well I would have been very happy to have bought in at $1.60 rather than $2.78:eek2:

[winner69]

From the last Annual Report a picture of one of your Senior Management Team

He must have known about the impending disasters and all these one offs that bit you on the arse

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL W69.....There was A/R another one several years back with their heads on trophy plaques....that would have been appropriate as well. My dividend yield has been severely affected but even after the cut should still be 6% or so....small mercies. As usual I'm looking to get in and average down ...reduced buy prices 3 times yesterday...its a fine line.
From the last Annual Report a picture of one of your Senior Management Team

He must have known about the impending disasters and all these one offs that bit you on the arse

[Chaowee88]

LOL W69.....There was A/R another one several years back with their heads on trophy plaques....that would have been appropriate as well. My dividend yield has been severely affected but even after the cut should still be 6% or so....small mercies. As usual I'm looking to get in and average down ...reduced buy prices 3 times yesterday...its a fine line.

And as predicted debt became too much and the divvy has been slammed. Still amazed their paying one, just digging their hole a lil bit deeper. Sad really. Sigh, warnings were given..

[percy]

From the announcement;
"We have discussed this with Westpac,and given that TTK's existing facility matures in December,we will,as planned,refinance for a new term prior to June 30."
Interesting.Perhaps opportunistically so????
By June the bank may think shareholders should repay their dividends,by supporting a capital raising??

[Chaowee88]

From the announcement;
"We have discussed this with Westpac,and given that TTK's existing facility matures in December,we will,as planned,refinance for a new term prior to June 30."
Interesting.Perhaps opportunistically so????
By June the bank may think shareholders should repay their dividends,by supporting a capital raising??

If anyone holding this still think it well managed think again, any company with 35 million in debt and with near nil earnings issuing a 4 cent divie need to think again. Especially when they know their recent farm side acquisition was a mess, they really need to get they're act together.

[percy]

If anyone holding this still think it well managed think again, any company with 35 million in debt and with near nil earnings issuing a 4 cent divie need to think again. Especially when they know their recent farm side acquisition was a mess, they really need to get they're act together.

I 100% agree.
Paying any dividend would not be wise in my opinion.
Stabilising the business and reducing debt should be their priority.
Another case of a business not doing what they said they would do.Underachievers.!

[winner69]

Percy, how long has Roger Sowry been involved with TTK?

Politicians on the Board always a good sign

[percy]

Percy, how long has Roger Sowry been involved with TTK?

Politicians on the Board always a good sign

Joined TTK board 23/02/2012,after being on City Link's board.From memory TTK took over City Link.
Yes politicians joining the board is always a good sell signal.

[winner69]

Joined TTK board 23/02/2012,after being on City Link's board.From memory TTK took over City Link.
Yes politicians joining the board is always a good sell signal.

Esp when they become Chairman eh

[horus1]

I couldn't agree more. They should be reducing the debt, forgoing dividend and putting a straight commercial person with communications expertise in as chairman, nor a PR /politician.

[percy]

Esp when they become Chairman eh

Yes you are on to me.
I am certainly looking forward to voting against one Dame Chair, when she stands for re election.!!!
What I consider one of the pleasures of being a shareholder. lol.

[horus1]

I have shares in teamtalk . I will be voting against Sowry if he stands.

[winner69]

Doesn't seem to be any decent sized shareholders ....is there any who might be get grumpy with how things going

Maybe Birman is one of the bigger ones

[winner69]

The worst part of fridays announcement was "Cash generation over the period was also weak"

Wonder what weak really means

They only need to generate $3m.of cash (after capex) this year to pay a 10 cents divie ....easy peasy

Any more cash can go to reduce debt

FCF last year was $4.7m and they paid $5.9m in divies

[percy]

Easy peasy could turn out to be very peasy difficult.
Paul Collins's Active Equities were a major shareholder.Not sure whether they sold down/out or just distributed TTK shares to Active Equity shareholders.

[BIRMANBOY]

Its 18% of my portfolio so is a good size chunk....how much of a chunk?...... modesty/humility/embarrassment/ prevents me from making that public :scared: Apart from that its no-ones bees wax anyway. So to put things in perspective for the last four years it has returned for me from 10% to 12% P.A. gross. Since my attention span is slightly larger than a gnats arsehole, I believe that grandiose comments and wholesale slagging off is somewhat useless and just shows an inability to think beyond the immediate. Companies cannot be judged on the basis of shorts periods of information and I therefore find its unproductive to get "grumpy". A longer period of bad results and recurring unsolved and unresolved issues will undoubtedly push me into grumpiness. In the meantime I'll be buying more next week. So you make sure you stay out of the way...or come in lower anyway.:)
Doesn't seem to be any decent sized shareholders ....is there any who might be get grumpy with how things going

Maybe Birman is one of the bigger ones

[percy]

Its 18% of my portfolio so is a good size chunk....how much of a chunk?...... modesty/humility/embarrassment/ prevents me from making that public :scared: Apart from that its no-ones bees wax anyway. So to put things in perspective for the last four years it has returned for me from 10% to 12% P.A. gross. Since my attention span is slightly larger than a gnats arsehole, I believe that grandiose comments and wholesale slagging off is somewhat useless and just shows an inability to think beyond the immediate. Companies cannot be judged on the basis of shorts periods of information and I therefore find its unproductive to get "grumpy". A longer period of bad results and recurring unsolved and unresolved issues will undoubtedly push me into grumpiness. In the meantime I'll be buying more next week. So you make sure you stay out of the way...or come in lower anyway.:)

May you live in interesting times!! lol.
You will have no buying competition from me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[winner69]

Brman, was that 18% earlier in the week or today?

[Bobdn]

All the best Birmanboy! I don't hold TTK but I'll be rooting for you (as a fellow survivor of Chorus).

[percy]

All the best Birmanboy! I don't hold TTK but I'll be rooting for you (as a fellow survivor of Chorus).

He does not need any help.
He is doing a good enough job rooting himself!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! lol.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL....I can do my own rooting thank you ...but don't let me interrupt your efforts:D....Yes well ex CNU funds have to find a new home. No comments from the peanut gallery along the line of "out of the frying pan into the fire" please. If the share market was easy work it wouldn't be as much fun!!!
All the best Birmanboy! I don't hold TTK but I'll be rooting for you (as a fellow survivor of Chorus).

[winner69]

Birman has amongst some of the derogatory tirade makes some good points.

In some companies NPAT after trends can be misleading and do not always reflect true cash generation. Depreciation etc one of the main culprits in this. Teamtalk is one of those companies, Methven is another.

Their modus operandi appears to be to pay most of free cash flow generated as dividends. Anything left over goes to reduce debt. Occassionaly to keep the dividend steady one borrows a bit more.

Teamtalks cashflows are shown below. Only the last 2 years have dividends exceeded free cash flow (if they had foreseen the whole year they would not have paid as much in the interim). Even with last years numbers they have retail nearly $3m of cash flow.

The big issue is the borrowings to acquire Bay City. Is there any intent to reduce this in the near future or are they hoping for the boom times to come.

Unless FY15 is a complete disaster they probably will generate $3m and pay a 10 cent dividend if they wish to, and have some left over. Will Westpac be happy is the question.

Below is why I prefer to look at cashflows and not EBITDA and NPAT and other things. I believe it gives a clearer picture (even long term eh Birman)

[winner69]

of course the long term trend is increasing revenues and declining free cash flows .... not good if you look out 5 years of this continuing

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes W69...the further back I look the clearer it gets. I talked with David Ware last year and one of the things he talked about was TTK was much better than most about generating cash flow. City link and mobile radio particularly. The goodwill impairment hopefully is a one off. I believe they are will overcome current situation and get moving again. As with many things one has to make a decision based on incomplete information. That's the share market for you...either you re-act quickly risking premature sharejaculation or you sit and let things play out in order for a better overall picture.
Birman has amongst some of the derogatory tirade makes some good points.

In some companies NPAT after trends can be misleading and do not always reflect true cash generation. Depreciation etc one of the main culprits in this. Teamtalk is one of those companies, Methven is another.

Their modus operandi appears to be to pay most of free cash flow generated as dividends. Anything left over goes to reduce debt. Occassionaly to keep the dividend steady one borrows a bit more.

Teamtalks cashflows are shown below. Only the last 2 years have dividends exceeded free cash flow (if they had foreseen the whole year they would not have paid as much in the interim). Even with last years numbers they have retail nearly $3m of cash flow.

The big issue is the borrowings to acquire Bay City. Is there any intent to reduce this in the near future or are they hoping for the boom times to come.

Unless FY15 is a complete disaster they probably will generate $3m and pay a 10 cent dividend if they wish to, and have some left over. Will Westpac be happy is the question.

Below is why I prefer to look at cashflows and not EBITDA and NPAT and other things. I believe it gives a clearer picture (even long term eh Birman)

[couta1]

Yes W69...the further back I look the clearer it gets. I talked with David Ware last year and one of the things he talked about was TTK was much better than most about generating cash flow. City link and mobile radio particularly. The goodwill impairment hopefully is a one off. I believe they are will overcome current situation and get moving again. As with many things one has to make a decision based on incomplete information. That's the share market for you...either you re-act quickly risking premature sharejaculation or you sit and let things play out in order for a better overall picture.
I reckon this company will come right given time, operating in a niche market is a big plus in their favour and their products and services are essential to people they sell to and provide services to. At least the weekend break will allow some of the panic sellers to settle their nerves and make a well considered desicion rather than a pure emotive driven one. Disc-Have no intention of selling now or anytime soon.

[samdaman]

Below is why I prefer to look at cashflows and not EBITDA and NPAT and other things. I believe it gives a clearer picture (even long term eh Birman)

I've been following TTK for awhile now and been hoping that they'd pull out of the Farmside tail spin. I was hoping the next report would confirm that and see them back into a nice uptrend. However this doesn't seem to be the case. If you take the last two years out, the two that have been affected by the farmside acquisition then they were showing good signs of FCF growth. For me it just seems odd that 2 years in a row they've paid dividends higher than what they're earning when they're holding that much debt. As someone said earlier on I'll be on the sidelines until they start showing better signs of future growth.

[BIRMANBOY]

Correction to earlier post which I will remove...think I misinterpreted your question.....I value my portfolio based on my capital outlay, not what its market value is today or tomorrow or yesterday. Its true value is what it returns me in dividends as a P A % of my original outlay. If I valued it as a market value then you have a point regards the change from beginning of week till close on Friday. Its market value is probably of little concern to me since I'll probably still be owning most when I die. Even when something is showing large gains (and I've had a few) I don't sell. My goal is build up the % return over the years by buying whenever good buying (low price) occurs. Dividends and interest is re-invested in more of the same. Superior yield can only be achieved and increased by time. Time will/should bring increasing earnings/dividends and occasional accumulation opportunities when SP collapses (hopefully not permanently!!)
Brman, was that 18% earlier in the week or today?

[bunter]

At least the weekend break will allow some of the panic sellers to settle their nerves and make a well considered desicion rather than a pure emotive driven one. Disc-Have no intention of selling now or anytime soon.

Could be just the opposite - last week's sellers made a considered rational decision and the holders are making an emotional one.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL Isn't the brain a wonderful instrument..a singular set of events, yet ...totally different (and everything in between) interpretations.
Could be just the opposite - last week's sellers made a considered rational decision and the holders are making an emotional one.

[winner69]

Could be just the opposite - last week's sellers made a considered rational decision and the holders are making an emotional one.

And don't forget this was one of these late Friday afternoon bad news stories just a half the country was going way for a long weekend at the beach in the sun. Intent I hope nobody notices ...or forget about come Monday / Tuesday. Sneaky eh

So it be all ok come Tuesday?

[BIRMANBOY]

What will be of interest this coming week will be whether or not any of the TTK board do any buying. Cannot imagine they will be selling but some hefty buying would certainly be sending some messages. Of course a deafening silence could also be sending a different message...or...could be alternatively merely that they don't really give a rodents hindquarters about the SP. Remember David Ware saying he rarely looked at what the SP was doing. Might have had a quick peek on Friday however.
And don't forget this was one of these late Friday afternoon bad news stories just a half the country was going way for a long weekend at the beach in the sun. Intent I hope nobody notices ...or forget about come Monday / Tuesday. Sneaky eh

So it be all ok come Tuesday?

[BlackPeter]

Just spending a couple of hours to ponder on what to do with my TTK shares after the spectacular drop on Friday (i.e. sell after the dust has settled / hold or use the drop as buying opportunity and accumulate).

Looking at the last annual report - they promised to bring colours into telecommunication .. and hey - they did: Lots of red colour in their books. Lets take a mental note ... they stick to their promises ;)

On the other hand - Roger Sowry's promises a 15 cents dividend ... so maybe they don't? :t_down:

Looking at their sectors:

Mobile radio is where their roots (and IMHO their skills) are, but this is hardly a growth business and contributing these days only mildly to their earnings. Outlook as I see it ... they can play the "last man standing" strategy (though I remember other companies failing to do that) - and hopefully it will keep contributing some earnings for some time, however I think this sector is unlikely to rejuvenate and turn back into the big cash cow it once used to be.

Broadband was in 2014 (earnings wise) the only exciting part of their business ... but given that they are only one of the dwarf players, that they only can make money if the giant (CNU) sleeps ... and if big customers (hopefully not just city councils) have spare cash to spend. Risky terrain - and long term I am not sure, whether they have the skills and resources to take on the big boys in the towns.

Rural (Farmside): losing them currently money, but IMHO their only chance to make money in the future. Farming is in my view as well a good match to their culture (tough white boys working hard, talking tough, playing poker and drinking throughout the night) and the opportunities are small (and special) enough to avoid too much attention from the big players. Obviously - Dairy going down and the drought in many parts of the country probably didn't help to open farmers pockets - but here might be as well a silver lining for the future: farming is cyclical, and when it goes up again, hopefully so will the number of opportunities for Farmside / Team Talk.

Putting all this together - I think if they play it well, they should have still a future in New Zealand ... however unlikely with lots of growth. Which means the best way to value them is likely to look at the long term PE ... and decide which premium one requires for the risk of them getting down the drain (as indicated - in my view not the most likely scenario, but possible).

If I take the last 5 years, than their average EPS was either 10 cents (including the big "good will write off last year) or 18 cents (excluding the said write off). This would put their value (requesting a PE of 12.5) in the range between $1.20 and $2.20. You can do the maths yourself for PE's better suited to your risk assessment.

Given those, I probably put my sell-trigger" closer to $ 1.20 than to $ 2.20 ... and my "buy" trigger would be somewhere (but not too much) below $1.

Exciting times - lets see, what the future will bring.

Discl: Holding ... and wondering why I didn't sold a larger parcel at $1.79 in early December when I had the opportunity (I sold some, though ...); As always - DYOR.

[Baa_Baa]

My investment advisor was around for dinner last night, we had a good chat as always including on TTK, as it's on my yield watch. So fwiw here's some snippets.

"Farmside acquisition has been a really big mistake"
"it was way outside their management capability and in a fraught sector"
"have a number of VERY LARGE holders of TTK, for the reliable yield"
"Monday will be hell, not sure what to do yet, this is a disaster".

However, for those who don't own, or hold regardless, "TTK is now cheap".

This is the story line, http://www.teamtalkinvestor.co.nz/nzx-releases it's grim reading, though the apparent policy of 'pay yield in the face of adversity' may have been beguiling, so one wonders like others have done here, whether they should just keep their money and fix the company first. However, imagine what the share price would do if they're predominantly held by yield focused investors and the dividend was cut completely!

Here's the story in a picture (monthly), and an ugly one at that:

6706

[BFG]

However, for those who don't own, or hold regardless, "TTK is now cheap"

However, imagine what the share price would do if they're predominantly held by yield focused investors and the dividend was cut completely!

Exactly. Combined with being as illiquid as it is, I wouldn't touch this share no matter how oversold it got. Things could get VERY ugly between now and June as these large investors try to bail with no one buying.

Anyone thinking of buying "cheap" shares come tomorrow better have another long, hard think about it. This could go sub $1 and stay there very easily...

[winner69]

I assume there was no earn-out payments made for Farmside so acquisition was only $31m

At least $12m of this was paid wih overpriced shares, ie $2.64

[winner69]

Blackpeter, you should discount eps pre 2013 to allow for the significant increase in shares that were issued for farmside.

Dilution was quite heavy. Definitely not eps accretive eh.

[winner69]

Couldn't not notice the diversity report in the AR

Good old boys club this outfit ......100% male directors and officers and from the photos mainly white and over 40

And from the language the CEO uses in public announcements just well methinks.

Nuff said

[Beagle]

Just spending a couple of hours to ponder on what to do with my TTK shares after the spectacular drop on Friday (i.e. sell after the dust has settled / hold or use the drop as buying opportunity and accumulate).

Looking at the last annual report - they promised to bring colours into telecommunication .. and hey - they did: Lots of red colour in their books. Lets take a mental note ... they stick to their promises ;)

On the other hand - Roger Sowry's promises a 15 cents dividend ... so maybe they don't? :t_down:

Looking at their sectors:

Mobile radio is where their roots (and IMHO their skills) are, but this is hardly a growth business and contributing these days only mildly to their earnings. Outlook as I see it ... they can play the "last man standing" strategy (though I remember other companies failing to do that) - and hopefully it will keep contributing some earnings for some time, however I think this sector is unlikely to rejuvenate and turn back into the big cash cow it once used to be.

Broadband was in 2014 (earnings wise) the only exciting part of their business ... but given that they are only one of the dwarf players, that they only can make money if the giant (CNU) sleeps ... and if big customers (hopefully not just city councils) have spare cash to spend. Risky terrain - and long term I am not sure, whether they have the skills and resources to take on the big boys in the towns.

Rural (Farmside): losing them currently money, but IMHO their only chance to make money in the future. Farming is in my view as well a good match to their culture (tough white boys working hard, talking tough, playing poker and drinking throughout the night) and the opportunities are small (and special) enough to avoid too much attention from the big players. Obviously - Dairy going down and the drought in many parts of the country probably didn't help to open farmers pockets - but here might be as well a silver lining for the future: farming is cyclical, and when it goes up again, hopefully so will the number of opportunities for Farmside / Team Talk.

Putting all this together - I think if they play it well, they should have still a future in New Zealand ... however unlikely with lots of growth. Which means the best way to value them is likely to look at the long term PE ... and decide which premium one requires for the risk of them getting down the drain (as indicated - in my view not the most likely scenario, but possible).

If I take the last 5 years, than their average EPS was either 10 cents (including the big "good will write off last year) or 18 cents (excluding the said write off). This would put their value (requesting a PE of 12.5) in the range between $1.20 and $2.20. You can do the maths yourself for PE's better suited to your risk assessment.

Given those, I probably put my sell-trigger" closer to $ 1.20 than to $ 2.20 ... and my "buy" trigger would be somewhere (but not too much) below $1.

Exciting times - lets see, what the future will bring.

Discl: Holding ... and wondering why I didn't sold a larger parcel at $1.79 in early December when I had the opportunity (I sold some, though ...); As always - DYOR.

Nice post and a good attempt to put a value on this share. Given the late Friday timing of the announcement Monday could be ugly...just as well all the Jaffa's will be at the beach otherwise it'd could be even worse. Better business's than this to buy on a PE of 12.5 IMHO.

[couta1]

Nice post and a good attempt to put a value on this share. Given the late Friday timing of the announcement Monday could be ugly...just as well all the Jaffa's will be at the beach otherwise it'd could be even worse. Better business's than this to buy on a PE of 12.5 IMHO.
Just as well the Jaffa's aren't at a Wellington area beach today or they would all be melted, will be watching the uglyness from the sidelines my fingers will not be going anywhere near the keyboard except to buy some more Air NZ shares:cool:

[BlackPeter]

Monday could be ugly...just as well all the Jaffa's will be at the beach otherwise it'd could be even worse. Better business's than this to buy on a PE of 12.5 IMHO.

Agreed to both. Didn't propose though to buy them at a PE of 12.5. If they manage to reach this astronomic number, this would be my "sell" trigger.

Might be worth a punt at a PE of half of that (and even if its just to ride out the sick cat bounce a la Moosie). Noted however as well Moosies concerns related to volume ... and agree this will be a real issue.

[winner69]

Top shareholders as per AR

Yield holders won't panic Monday, they have faith

And by the sounds of it the other 1000 odd investors with less than 50,000 shares will hang in there if they didn't sell Friday

If there carnage will only be first hour than back to 110 odd

PS - Birman must be on the list. They say the big shareholders are the ones that move the price. Lead by example mate

[Chaowee88]

Agreed to both. Didn't propose though to buy them at a PE of 12.5. If they manage to reach this astronomic number, this would be my "sell" trigger.

Might be worth a punt at a PE of half of that (and even if its just to ride out the sick cat bounce a la Moosie). Noted however as well Moosies concerns related to volume ... and agree this will be a real issue.

Long term holders like (Couta) for example, sorry I just had to point you out as you love Teamtalk for it yield, Now with the yield crushed and well an truly close to being fully cut with debt blowing out we'll see how much your infatuation with this stock really is. Look at how sad Pumpkin patch and Cavalier have become as they took on too much..

[couta1]

Long term holders like (Couta) for example, sorry I just had to point you out as you love Teamtalk for it yield, Now with the yield crushed and well an truly close to being fully cut with debt blowing out we'll see how much your infatuation with this stock really is. Look at how sad Pumpkin patch and Cavalier have become as they took on too much..
I don't have an infatuation with this stock but I'm not about to lose 32k by panic selling, my last panic sell cost me 10k and if I had of waited a couple of weeks I wouldn't have lost anything (Not the same stock I know but the principle remains the same) I will give this company 3 years and see where its at then as I believe it will come through this difficult period.

[Bobdn]

Couldn't not notice the diversity report in the AR

Good old boys club this outfit ......100% male directors and officers and from the photos mainly white and over 40

And from the language the CEO uses in public announcements just well methinks.



Nuff said


Which also describes Apple. Really miss holding Apple, just over a 50% profit in a little over a year was the best I've ever done.

I think I'll investigate a TTK purchase.

[winner69]

Which also describes Apple. Really miss holding Apple, just over a 50% profit in a little over a year was the best I've ever done.

I think I'll investigate a TTK purchase.

That profit you made probably happened when the Apple exec team went from 10% female to 20% female. A bit of diversity must have helped. Well done

Teamtalk worth a look at ....even if the directors and exec seem to be more interested in swearing and BBQs than making money - if Annual Reports anything to go by

The question is how good could they have been if 'diversity' had been on the agenda

[percy]

There appears to be a big lack of "skin in the game".
Other than David Ware appearing on the top 20 shareholders list with 189,216 shares, the other directors have very small holdings;
Joe Pope the chairman has 50,000 shares,Ross Ballard 12,169,Roger Sowry 10,000 and Tone Borren jointly 17,394 and 30,000.

[winner69]

Shouldn't overlook that the Book Value of TTK is just 91 cents (and most of that is intangibles but that not all bad)

Equity of $26m and debt of say $34m means invested capital is $60m

From an economic value added perspective TTK needs to have operating earnings (tax paid EBIT) of about $9m just to cover its cost of capital. FY14 was just under $6m (normalised) and that was one of their better years. Teamtalk with its current capital structure is not covering its cost of capital, in fact substantially short. It has negative economic profit

A current share price of 115 implies the NPV of the future economic value added is about $6.5m - ie the market is expecting TTK to make more than $10m EBIT and more for the foreseeable future.

Believe that and 115 or a bit more is a fair share price. Have your doubts about such an sustained increase in profits and TTK is 'fairly' valued at less than 91 cents (its book value)

Just one way that analysts look at it

[Baa_Baa]

Yes, very interesting isn't it. Also, two directors own no shares. Quite a few of those paltry number of shares were acquired in the period to June 2014. Maybe they saw the problems coming, for example it was no secret they were buying a serious downtrend .. and who in their right mind does that eh ;) Now of course they can load up big time, at an average price way under every other shareholder. But will they? Now's the time for them to wade in, isn't it? Their policy allows directors to trade within a few days after an announcement.


There appears to be a big lack of "skin in the game".
Other than David Ware appearing on the top 20 shareholders list with 189,216 shares, the other directors have very small holdings;
Joe Pope the chairman has 50,000 shares,Ross Ballard 12,169,Roger Sowry 10,000 and Tone Borren jointly 17,394 and 30,000.

[winner69]

There appears to be a big lack of "skin in the game".
Other than David Ware appearing on the top 20 shareholders list with 189,216 shares, the other directors have very small holdings;
Joe Pope the chairman has 50,000 shares,Ross Ballard 12,169,Roger Sowry 10,000 and Tone Borren jointly 17,394 and 30,000.

Mr Ware has another 181k jointly held with another person

Mr Ware sold 75,000 of the 189,216 in September so even less skin in the game

[winner69]

Ware sold those for about $1.60 odd in September ....well timed eh

[percy]

I note from the latest annual report that current assets are $12,111,000 while current liabilities are $51,250,000 of which is the $34,639,000 owing to the bank.Deduct that and still leaves current liabilities of $16,611,000 which is 37% higher than current assets.
I note on either page 12 or 13 of the report the NTA is stated to be 6 cents.
Just one way a bookseller looks at it.

[percy]

Ware sold those for about $1.60 odd in September ....well timed eh

Yes,very well timed.
Where's Roger!!???

[Baa_Baa]

On reflection, maybe it was the directors buying Friday, given the low volumes, and low value, which fits the apparent MO of the current directors. The mind boggles. For every seller there's a buyer. So someone likes these shares, even if they're not at $0.93 yet ;)


Trades
31


Value
$145,450.35


Volume
106,543



6708

[percy]

Just watch for shareholder notices.
Once BB goes over 1,418,450 [5%] he has to declare his interest. lol.

[winner69]

That Mr Ware is quite a character going by his language in announcements and the joviality that is apparent in the Annual Reports

I see he is doing or about to complete a PhD at Victoria

His thesis ....Great Expectations: What Shareholders and Directors expect from Boards

Maybe another few chapters needed?

[Baa_Baa]

Can anyone explain why certain holders in the top20 appear multiple times, like Custodial Services Ltd, and Forsyth Barr, but they are not stated as a total holding or % holding?


Top shareholders as per AR

Yield holders won't panic Monday, they have faith

And by the sounds of it the other 1000 odd investors with less than 50,000 shares will hang in there if they didn't sell Friday

If there carnage will only be first hour than back to 110 odd

PS - Birman must be on the list. They say the big shareholders are the ones that move the price. Lead by example mate

[percy]

That Mr Ware is quite a character going by his language in announcements and the joviality that is apparent in the Annual Reports

I see he is doing or about to complete a PhD at Victoria

His thesis ....Great Expectations: What Shareholders and Directors expect from Boards

Maybe another few chapters needed?

The chapter on director's having 'skin in the game' maybe a bit thin??

[winner69]

On reflection, maybe it was the directors buying Friday, given the low volumes, and low value, which fits the apparent MO of the current directors. The mind boggles. For every seller there's a buyer. So someone likes these shares, even if they're not at $0.93 yet ;)


Trades
31



Value
$145,450.35


Volume
106,543



6708

About 40,000 of those were before the announcement at 160 plus ....maybe it was a director buying at 170 on open ....ouch

[winner69]

The chapter on director's having 'skin in the game' maybe a bit thin??

Maybe his studies are a distraction?

[percy]

Can anyone explain why certain holders in the top20 appear multiple times, like Custodial Services Ltd, and Forsyth Barr, but they are not stated as a total holding or % holding?

They hold shares for different clients usually.
All the Baa Baa family may use Forbar.
Fred Baa Baa holds 1,000,000
Mabel Baa Baa hold 2,000,000
Fred and Mabel holds 1,500,000 jointly.
Tiger Jim Baa Baa holds 750,000
Great Uncle Percy Baa Baa holds 500,000.

[Baa_Baa]

The Baa Baa family just lost their shirt!
Including you Uncle Percy Baa Baa :) You crack me up LOL.
Thanks for the explanation.


They hold shares for different clients usually.
All the Baa Baa family may use Forbar.
Fred Baa Baa holds 1,000,000
Mabel Baa Baa holds 2,000,000
Fred and Mabel holds 1,500,000 jointly.
Tiger Jim Baa Baa holds 750,000
Great Uncle Percy Baa Baa holds 500,000.

[percy]

Maybe his studies are a distraction?

I dare not comment.!!!
I do share your evil thoughts all the same!!!! lol.

[percy]

The Baa Baa family just lost their shirt!
Including you Uncle Percy Baa Baa :) You crack me up LOL.
Thanks for the explanation.

Not so.
You forgot their massive Heartland holdings.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????????????
Only way I could think to explain it.!!! lol

[couta1]

Awful lot of TeamTalk on here or should I say TrashTalk only time will tell, I take all price predictions and values on here with a few hundred grains of salt after all Summerset should be $2.00 and Ryman $6.50 by now aye .

[percy]

Awful lot of TeamTalk on here or should I say TrashTalk only time will tell, I take all price predictions and values on here with a few hundred grains of salt after all Summerset should be $2.00 and Ryman $6.50 by now aye .
Must agree with you.!!!!!!!!!
It is certainly looking like a few hundred grains of salt !!!!!!!

[winner69]

Awful lot of TeamTalk on here or should I say TrashTalk only time will tell, I take all price predictions and values on here with a few hundred grains of salt after all Summerset should be $2.00 and Ryman $6.50 by now aye .

Jeez you sound a bit pissed off mate .... I know comment aimed at me but on balance I saying Teamtalk is a buy (sometime) if you bothered to read the good bits.

But even so they deserve to be trashed don't you agree

[Chaowee88]

Awful lot of TeamTalk on here or should I say TrashTalk only time will tell, I take all price predictions and values on here with a few hundred grains of salt after all Summerset should be $2.00 and Ryman $6.50 by now aye .

You shouldn't be buying because you like a company, you should be buying because the the numbers/analysis suggest it undervalued. You shouldn't be holding just because you feel it will turn around, you should be holding because your analysis suggest the company will turnaround.

The numbers game says TTK is currently priced with a market cap of 32 million with net debt of 35 which is an enterprise value of 67 million which will record diddly squat of a profit. I don't see how this warrants a "hold". Not having a go at you, just want to know based on what analysis do you go by?

[winner69]

EV:EBITDA of 5 to 6 ain't to expensive chaowee

[noodles]

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150126-0652-teamtalk_says_trading_has_improved-048.mp3

[winner69]

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150126-0652-teamtalk_says_trading_has_improved-048.mp3

It's only just a profit warning at this stage the man said

[winner69]

From the announcement on Friday -

Given TeamTalk's overall performance, we have instituted tighter controls on discretionary spending, reviewed our capex programme and will look to gain further efficiency from moving a number of functions across the group onto shared platforms

Translated as

Tighter controls on discretionary spending - warm fuzzie buzz words but an admission that we have been a bit extravagant in spending shareholders money. Expect to see the a more austere lifestyle at work from execs (ha ha)

Reviewed our capex - standard response but means we won't buy as many things as we need to this year to help us grow (cut back on growth investment not always a good thing eh). Also means delaying capex until next fiscal in the hope things will be better. Hope is not a strategy.

Shared platforms - OMG talk of shared platforms and the good old buzzword 'efficiencies' to give couta the warm fuzzies. Why not happened already? Admission of too many people .....and expect more one off costs to come and bit them on the arse.

They deserve to be trashed

A buy maybe one day but I doubt if we will ever ever see anything like 2 bucks again

[Baa_Baa]

$1.04 the open this morning, so far.

[Chaowee88]

EV:EBITDA of 5 to 6 ain't to expensive chaowee

Problem with 5 - 6 is it doesn't reflect TTK's capital expenditure. The low cash flow really is a downer, I don't understand why they're in debt trouble yet still paying dividends.

The worst part about TTK is if they can't get farm side up an running they'll incur goodwill writedowns sooner than later and that going to blow the balance sheet out of whack.

[Jaa]

To many people eh? Oh dear wonder if noted telecommunications expert Jason Ede will be out on his ear already?

[Beagle]

Agreed to both. Didn't propose though to buy them at a PE of 12.5. If they manage to reach this astronomic number, this would be my "sell" trigger.

Might be worth a punt at a PE of half of that (and even if its just to ride out the sick cat bounce a la Moosie). Noted however as well Moosies concerns related to volume ... and agree this will be a real issue.

Looks like this stock has been a classic dividend trap for many investors. I won't attempt to value it other than to say if I thought there was an opportunity at the current price I'd be buying, (I'm not).
CEO selling down and the really very modest holdings by the directors are actions that speak for themselves.

[Chaowee88]

Looks like this stock has been a classic dividend trap for many investors. I won't attempt to value it other than to say if I thought there was an opportunity at the current price I'd be buying, (I'm not).
CEO selling down and the really very modest holdings by the directors are actions that speak for themselves.

It manipulation almost, by constantly paying a dividend even though debt is growing. They're practically just using the dividend to prop the share price up.

[horus1]

I'm adding to my holding.I think the market has overreacted.Be noted in the shareholders list soon

[Beagle]

Problem with 5 - 6 is it doesn't reflect TTK's capital expenditure. The low cash flow really is a downer, I don't understand why they're in debt trouble yet still paying dividends.

The worst part about TTK is if they can't get farm side up an running they'll incur goodwill writedowns sooner than later and that going to blow the balance sheet out of whack.


It manipulation almost, by constantly paying a dividend even though debt is growing. They're practically just using the dividend to prop the share price up.

I completely agree with your first quote but not so sure about the second one. I don't really know the company so can't comment on specifics but I always get worried when a company starts to extol the virtues of its dividend yield...to me that raises a red flag that perhaps they're running out of ideas to grow EPS. (e.g. Anyone noticed SKC was recently trumpeting its dividend yield...yet is running into a period of unprecedented capital expenditure.)

[BlackPeter]

I'm adding to my holding.I think the market has overreacted.Be noted in the shareholders list soon

The market always overreacts ... over and undershoots are just a fact of life (plain physics). Obviously $1 is as well a psychological important barrier. Still not quite sure, though whether it will hold at that stage or still drop further, but guessing the bottom is hard anyway. Nevertheless - all the best!

[samdaman]

Using my spreadsheet of smoke and mirrors, before the dividend cut (15c) I had a rough forecast yield of around 15%. After the cut to lets say 8c (being optimistic they'll be able to pay 4c again in the second half), I get using the same yield number as the discount rate a fair price of circa 80c. Not saying it'll drop that low but personally I'd be looking to get in even lower than that given their amount of debt.

[percy]

I'm adding to my holding.I think the market has overreacted.Be noted in the shareholders list soon

Hope you get over your folly being on public record quicker than I did.
Took me 25 years to come to terms that I once appeared in the top 20 list of WDT..!! lol.

[okay]

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/business/bus-mnr-20150126-0652-teamtalk_says_trading_has_improved-048.mp3

The manly, "straight talking", arse bitten CEO sounded like an out of breath pussy cat in this interview as Jenny directed a couple of pertinent "straight talking" questions his way.
The shame is the interview seemed to cut out just as Jenny seem to be about to really sink her teeth in.
For a man who seems to mention sacking incompetent managers every other announcement you have to love his explanation for cost blowouts, "they just kinda came out of the blue". Can you imagine his reaction to a manager giving him this for an explanation. I expect his answer would be another "one off" restructuring cost.

[Beagle]

I agree okay. His explanation, if you can call it that was quite frankly, pathetic. What was he going on about toward the end, something about power costs...I just got the feeling WTF ????? He went on to say it would be explained in more detail in the half year report, which I took to interpret as blatant attempt to dodge the question and a simple attempt to buy himself more time to come up with a more plausible explanation in due course.
Also talk of good trading for the first few weeks of 2015 felt to me like "Oh My God I have to say something positive"..the SP is in freefall and I don't want my neck on the chopping block....Just calling it as I "read" the tea leaves. I feel sorry for investors. How do you have confidence in a man like that after what's been said, the way its been said and him voting with his feet by selling a fair percentage of his stock late last year ? I don't think talk of costs "biting a company on the arse" is appropriate language for a formal press release. A good CEO ???????

[Baa_Baa]

Prescient W69, thanks for this heads up yesterday. :t_up:


Shouldn't overlook that the Book Value of TTK is just 91 cents (and most of that is intangibles but that not all bad)

Equity of $26m and debt of say $34m means invested capital is $60m

From an economic value added perspective TTK needs to have operating earnings (tax paid EBIT) of about $9m just to cover its cost of capital. FY14 was just under $6m (normalised) and that was one of their better years. Teamtalk with its current capital structure is not covering its cost of capital, in fact substantially short. It has negative economic profit

A current share price of 115 implies the NPV of the future economic value added is about $6.5m - ie the market is expecting TTK to make more than $10m EBIT and more for the foreseeable future.

Believe that and 115 or a bit more is a fair share price. Have your doubts about such an sustained increase in profits and TTK is 'fairly' valued at less than 91 cents (its book value)

Just one way that analysts look at it

[Baa_Baa]

Sad really wasn't it, exceptionally poor effort and the journo didn't even climb into him. Poor chap's arse is only just just starting to get kicked I'd say. About time Mr Sowry said something, pronto! imho. Need to restore confidence, $0.90 and 21% off again today.


What was he going on about toward the end, something about power costs...I just got the feeling WTF ?????
Also talk of good trading for the first few weeks of 2015 felt to me like "Oh My God I have to say something positive"..the SP is in freefall and I don't want my neck on the chopping block....Just calling it as I "read" the tea leaves. I feel sorry for investors. How do you have confidence in a man like that after what's been said, the way its been said and him voting with his feet by selling a fair percentage of his stock late last year ?

[BIRMANBOY]

Just because he's right... once ....doesn't mean you can elect him President:) So what does tomorrow hold for us oh presidential premonition provider?
Prescient W69, thanks for this heads up yesterday. :t_up:

[okay]

I agree okay. His explanation, if you can call it that was quite frankly, pathetic. What was he going on about toward the end, something about power costs...I just got the feeling WTF ????? He went on to say it would be explained in more detail in the half year report, which I took to interpret as blatant attempt to dodge the question and a simple attempt to buy himself more time to come up with a more plausible explanation in due course.
Also talk of good trading for the first few weeks of 2015 felt to me like "Oh My God I have to say something positive"..the SP is in freefall and I don't want my neck on the chopping block....Just calling it as I "read" the tea leaves. I feel sorry for investors. How do you have confidence in a man like that after what's been said, the way its been said and him voting with his feet by selling a fair percentage of his stock late last year ? I don't think talk of costs "biting a company on the arse" is appropriate language for a formal press release. A good CEO ???????

Roger, can't help but feel that his arse bitten comment will be a hard one to shake off lol

[Beagle]

Just because he's right... once ....doesn't mean you can elect him President:) So what does tomorrow hold for us oh presidential premonition provider?

His analysis looks pretty sound to me...a bit rough to ask him to predict the outcome of trading for one day tomorrow IMO.
Okay - Yep, I can see it being a memorable statement along the lines of "I apologise for being a man"

[The Grinch]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c

Reasoning... Gutometer of what I would need to risk my neck on this one :)

basic logic:

- Admitted that trading conditions are tough and seem very unsure of what future profitability looks like.
- If we can assume that the revised dividend is going to continue for the foreseeable future (and has been pointed out there is potential for them to cut further/remove in the short term)
then the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.

Just a guestimate and hopefully I'm way out and it doesn't come close/has already bottomed.

Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

[noodles]

His analysis looks pretty sound to me...a bit rough to ask him to predict the outcome of trading for one day tomorrow IMO.
Okay - Yep, I can see it being a memorable statement along the lines of "I apologise for being a man"
Or "poison chalice "

[bunter]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c
the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.
Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

Firstly, paying an unrealistic return to attract investors is characteristic of a certain type of investment scheme.

Secondly, re dividends:

There may be few or no imputation credits attached to this dividend - no profit, no tax,

So if it's a 12% NET dividend you're looking for and there are no IC attached - the SP would need to be , let's see, 8c - less 30% tax = 5.6 c / 12% = 48c.

But wait, there's less.

The bank might well complain about this 4c dividend (which is only a forecast BTW - not an announcement.)
There will be no money for the proposed second 4c dividend, if the second half performance isn't significantly better than the first.

[samdaman]

21.7% down another big slide...

What will the price be three weeks from now on opening day w/c 16th Feb?

My Bet: 71c

Reasoning... Gutometer of what I would need to risk my neck on this one :)

basic logic:

- Admitted that trading conditions are tough and seem very unsure of what future profitability looks like.
- If we can assume that the revised dividend is going to continue for the foreseeable future (and has been pointed out there is potential for them to cut further/remove in the short term)
then the risk adjusted return would have to be at least in the double digits (before imputation) so lets say 12%. 12% return at a 8c divi is 66c. Lets put it in a pretty range and say
63-70c.

Just a guestimate and hopefully I'm way out and it doesn't come close/has already bottomed.

Anyone else game enough to look into the crystal ball?

I had a quick look back in post #347

[winner69]

Mr Ware up at Vic today asking if he could change the title of his PhD thesis ...he thinks Great Expectations isn't really appropriate

[BIRMANBOY]

How about "Great Expectorations". or "Sometimes its better to keep your mouth shut".
Mr Ware upon at Vic today asking if he could change the title of his PhD thesis ...he thinks Great Expectations isn't really appropriate

[winner69]

Birman, you go to AGMs

Tha CEO speech at the last one (only read it) seems quite evangelical - is that how it came across?

Just interested

[BIRMANBOY]

Sorry...they always seem to clash with my tennis so cannot comment....although at the next one they will no doubt be passing the collection plate around. Catering by City mission. Personal security and body armour supplied by Hells Pizza.
Birman, you go to AGMs

Tha CEO speech at the last one (only read it) seems quite evangelical - is that how it came across?

Just interested

[percy]

Sorry...they always seem to clash with my tennis so cannot comment....although at the next one they will no doubt be passing the collection plate around. Catering by City mission. Personal security and body armour supplied by Hells Pizza.

18% of your portfolio tied up with TTK and you can't attend the ASM as it clashes with your tennis.!
May turn out to be very expensive tennis games!!!!!
You must be joking!!

[BlackPeter]

Birman, you go to AGMs

Tha CEO speech at the last one (only read it) seems quite evangelical - is that how it came across?

Just interested

Hi W69 - her is my summary of the Christchurch past-AGM meeting (same speech given as well by David Ware):

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?425-TeamTalk-IPO&p=513807&viewfull=1#post513807

And do - he didn't come across as evangelical, he appeared actually quite sober and humble (well - for a CEO). I noticed however, that this is not always his preferred communication style ;).

Related to the meeting - In hindsight I probably should have tried more of the wine / bubbly - who knows, when I get again something out of my TTK shares?

[axe]

You must be joking!!


Percy I think you mean "You cannot be serious!!!"

[percy]

Percy I think you mean "You cannot be serious!!!"

Thanks Axe.
That really was what I meant.!! lol.

[Beagle]

The word used in the result that best sums this company's prospects is "Grappling."

Hit the nail on the head with that one mate on 27 August 2014.

[winner69]

Hi W69 - her is my summary of the Christchurch past-AGM meeting (same speech given as well by David Ware):

http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?425-TeamTalk-IPO&p=513807&viewfull=1#post513807

And do - he didn't come across as evangelical, he appeared actually quite sober and humble (well - for a CEO). I noticed however, that this is not always his preferred communication style ;).

Related to the meeting - In hindsight I probably should have tried more of the wine / bubbly - who knows, when I get again something out of my TTK shares?


Thanks BP, yes I recall that good summary

Some of the comments near the end were pretty spot on in hindsight.

That 'investor' who bought 300k ay $3 will be even less impressed now.

[dingoNZ]

Getting to the point where I'd consider buying, stock has been smashed and I think its an overreaction...

[winner69]

I reckon sandaman will be the guru predictor after today

He said 80 cents as fair value, as least by his considered analysis

At least 80 cents would give a nice 50% fall over the last few days .....100% gain if it recovers

[couta1]

Getting to the point where I'd consider buying, stock has been smashed and I think its an overreaction...
Absolutely and those buying now will probably double their money within 3 years.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL never underestimate an over-reaction. I've dropped my buy price about 10 times now...gonna get caught soon!!!
Getting to the point where I'd consider buying, stock has been smashed and I think its an overreaction...

[bung5]

Looking like 80c will be the price most people be after 10% yield at the new suggested dividend rate.

[BIRMANBOY]

So what's the difference between an optimist and a pragmatist...an optimist says "when" a pragmatist says "if". And then there's W69 the optimistic pragmatist:p
I reckon sandaman will be the guru predictor after today

He said 80 cents as fair value, as least by his considered analysis

At least 80 cents would give a nice 50% fall over the last few days .....100% gain if it recovers

[BIRMANBOY]

Thinking about breaking open the wallet again Couta?
Absolutely and those buying now will probably double their money within 3 years.

[couta1]

Thinking about breaking open the wallet again Couta?
No I opened it up on AirNZ after selling some GNE on Friday, I'll put my TTK in the bottom draw and forget about them they owe me 37k at current price, my last big average down was on Xro so I'm waiting to see how that goes.

[Beagle]

No I opened it up on AirNZ after selling some GNE on Friday, I'll put my TTK in the bottom draw and forget about them they owe me 37k at current price, my last big average down was on Xro so I'm waiting to see how that goes. Should have waited for your bonus shares in GNE, 6% kicker for nothing....that and one of the major brokers has just upped their valuation to $2.45. That said, using that money to buy AIR probably a good move as is not averaging down on this....oldest mistake in the investment game is doubling down on a rapidly declining dog to ameliorate losses...usually just exacerbates one's losses.

[couta1]

Should have waited for your bonus shares in GNE, 6% kicker for nothing....that and one of the major brokers has just upped their valuation to $2.45. That said, using that money to buy AIR probably a good move as is not averaging down on this....oldest mistake in the investment game is doubling down on a rapidly declining dog to ameliorate losses...usually just exacerbates one's losses.
No mate I didn't sell my 30k GNE shares from the IPO, not about to miss my 2000 bonus shares:cool:

[Beagle]

No mate I didn't sell my 30k GNE shares from the IPO, not about to miss my 2000 bonus shares:cool:

Cunning :cool:

[percy]

Cunning :cool:

Bit difficult to say "Cunning Couta".!!!

[couta1]

Bit difficult to say "Cunning Couta".!!!
Just call me Foxy minus my tail but I hoping to grow that back again over the next few years, its been incinerated over the last couple of years.

[iceman]

That's also what I was being told when I was buying DIL in a downtrend between $3.80 and down to $3.45 just over a year ago !! I don't regret it.
For FA-ers, isn't it about DYOR before buying into a company and barring any unexpected announcements, sticking to your guns !?
Sorry not related to this thread per se !



.oldest mistake in the investment game is doubling down on a rapidly declining dog to ameliorate losses...usually just exacerbates one's losses.

[Beagle]

That's also what I was being told when I was buying DIL in a downtrend between $3.80 and down to $3.45 just over a year ago !! I don't regret it.
For FA-ers, isn't it about DYOR before buying into a company and barring any unexpected announcements, sticking to your guns !?
Sorry not related to this thread per se !

Always the odd exception to the rule mate. People buying Xero on the way down at $35 or this stock at $1.60 after halving from the high not looking too chuffed are they !!

[Tony Two Gloves]

It is hard to believe that David Ware's holdings are so small, he is basically Mr Team Talk and now his holdings are less than $200K hardly his baby anymore.

I was on this at $1.52 held for my Divvy last year and escaped at $1.65 so reasonably happy but didn't like the look of indicators, mind you I was beating myself up a bit for not holding longer as I saw the SP keep increasing. Feeling I am quite clever but know that was better luck than management......I can't see how they will pay dividends as it is just irresponsible in my opinion and as Mr Ware will not profit that much anyways, he should do the right thing and make the hard call - before Westpac does.

[Tony Two Gloves]

Any possibility of a take over at these prices?? 75 cents could SPARK some interest.....

[BIRMANBOY]

So whadya tink there Tony...should they make them an offer they cant refuse? Good lateral thinking there but its probably happened too fast for anyone to give it anything other than a ...Holy s**t have you seen what's happening with TTK?
Any possibility of a take over at these prices?? 75 cents could SPARK some interest.....

[bunter]

Any possibility of a take over at these prices?? 75 cents could SPARK some interest.....

Think the market will be a little Warey of TTK

[Tony Two Gloves]

Haha Birman, make them an offer they can't understand might be more like it!

On a serious note are any of their Assets that are appealing to another party?

[percy]

Any possibility of a take over at these prices?? 75 cents could SPARK some interest.....

Big guys usually kick the little guys when they are down.So rather than take them over I think they may give them a few well placed kicks.!!!
ICEMAN and ROGER.I have back tested both DIL and TTK charts, using 50 day and 200 day EMA moving averages.Takes all the guess work out of timing entry and exits.KW is right,IT REALLY WORKS!!!

[BIRMANBOY]

Iceman...some people just cannot understand that concept. They like rules, makes them feel comfortable. Almost every time I have averaged down its worked for me too and the time I didn't do it with CNU was a big lost opportunity running into the tens of thousands. The truth is it doesn't work for some and it does for others so what I take from that is, saying it shouldn't be done is just evidence of a lack of awareness of the larger world of investing. Everyone is different and should be respected regardless. Just because someone doesn't follow your rules doesn't mean they are going to fail.
That's also what I was being told when I was buying DIL in a downtrend between $3.80 and down to $3.45 just over a year ago !! I don't regret it.
For FA-ers, isn't it about DYOR before buying into a company and barring any unexpected announcements, sticking to your guns !?
Sorry not related to this thread per se !

[Beagle]

Big guys usually kick the little guys when they are down.So rather than take them over I think they may give them a few well placed kicks.!!!
ICEMAN and ROGER.I have back tested both DIL and TTK charts, using 50 day and 200 day EMA moving averages.Takes all the guess work out of timing entry and exits.KW is right,IT REALLY WORKS!!!

Yep mate I like KW's approach regarding moving averages too. Doesn't always work but I reckon it works FAR more often than not. Very useful approach especially in combination with thorough fundamental analysis. More in here for anyone wondering what Percy and I are referring too http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?9176-Using-TA-to-time-entries-and-exits

[Bobdn]

Wow, I can declare a paper profit of $140.

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah..that will surely go someway towards offsetting the time lost/ have spent following the thread and posting:D. Can we have an update hourly on twitter?
Wow, I can declare a paper profit of $140.

[winner69]

Quick sums

Assume this year not too bad and FCF is $5m and grows at 5% pa for 10 years and terminal growth of 2.5%pa one gets a FCF valuation of 97 cents

Quick and ready but a fairly good of fair value ....but would still need to perform heaps better than in the past

The market will need a good story from Ware about where TTK is heading and give some idea f what his can deliver ......maybe the next shareholder presentation needs to titled "Great Expectations - Delivering for shareholders"

Unless a good story nothing to get punters excited and share price much over a buck

[BIRMANBOY]

Let this be a lesson for Moosie...there's a dead kitty in every back garden...you don't need to love em, don't need to understand em...you just have to have a good nose.

[winner69]

Let this be a lesson for Moosie...there's a dead kitty in every back garden...you don't need to love em, don't need to understand em...you just have to have a good nose.

85 to 100 some dead kitty bounce .....but maybe start of a uptrend

Hope you got plenty of those 85 cent ones Birman ....you be OK even if they cut divie for a year or so

[BIRMANBOY]

Early days W69...early days.
85 to 100 some dead kitty bounce .....but maybe start of a uptrend

Hope you got plenty of those 85 cent ones Birman ....you be OK even if they cut divie for a year or so

[BFG]

Let this be a lesson for Moosie...there's a dead kitty in every back garden...you don't need to love em, don't need to understand em...you just have to have a good nose.

*Goes searching for the dead kitty in his own backyard. Heads towards the bush with mass fly's above it and picks up a nice, long stick...*

[BIRMANBOY]

That's the trouble ...you look for the fly's and ignore your nose.....that's bass-ackwards..Your avatar (which I assume is your alter-ego) has its eyes closed and its nose open. Sad case of schizophrenic share traderitis.:) However kitty bouncing is a truly difficult skill to master ...mine bounce round all over the house at 5 in the morning so I do understand.
*Goes searching for the dead kitty in his own backyard. Heads towards the bush with mass fly's above it and picks up a nice, long stick...*

[BFG]

That's the trouble ...you look for the fly's and ignore your nose.....that's bass-ackwards..Your avatar (which I assume is your alter-ego) has its eyes closed and its nose open. Sad case of schizophrenic share traderitis.:) However kitty bouncing is a truly difficult skill to master ...mine bounce round all over the house at 5 in the morning so I do understand.
I successfully traded WHS from $2.59 to $2.85 last week so wouldn't say my nose-based skills aren't too bad these days ;)

I have a dog that yells at hedgehogs at 5am so I feel your pain too!

And that's not my alter-ego, that's actually me in a pose inspired by a famous musician of Genesis fame ;)

[klid]

I'd tend to agree it's a dead cat bounce but one thing I do note and wonder about is that revenue has increased rather significantly in the last couple of years - from a long plateau. and I don't know enough to know why this hasn't been able to be translated into profit... whether there's some underlying fundamental reason that will continue or not. I guess the EBITDA margins historically were pretty high, why was it 10% for '14 where as 25% for '11/'12?

[tim23]

Tony two Groves - SPK used to own TTK so unlikely
klid - they bought Farmside might explain increase in revenue?

[couta1]

Tony two Groves - SPK used to own TTK so unlikely
klid - they bought Farmside might explain increase in revenue?
They also had that one off Telco levy of just over half a million.

[Bobdn]

Tony two Groves - SPK used to own TTK so unlikely
klid - they bought Farmside might explain increase in revenue?

Tim, his name is Tony Two Gloves, not Two Groves. "Two Groves" doesn't have the same Mafioso ring to it. "hey, boss, ave ya seen Two Groves, he's late with the payment". Nah, just doesn't work.

[BIRMANBOY]

Nice one....now if you can get both nostrils working together...you'll be all set for your million:)
I successfully traded WHS from $2.59 to $2.85 last week so wouldn't say my nose-based skills aren't too bad these days ;)

I have a dog that yells at hedgehogs at 5am so I feel your pain too!

And that's not my alter-ego, that's actually me in a pose inspired by a famous musician of Genesis fame ;)

[BIRMANBOY]

I don't know how I missed this before..unlike me to pass by a superb line feed...thanks TTG . Re your serious note...David Ware did make note of the fact their ass ets were in fact eminently appealing, having mentioned that they had been bitten there. This obviously came as a surprise to him....which is surprising in itself...since one might reasonably assume that an astute MD would keep an eye open for suspicious nosing around his nether regions.
Haha Birman, make them an offer they can't understand might be more like it!

On a serious note are any of their Assets that are appealing to another party?

[Tony Two Gloves]

Tim, his name is Tony Two Gloves, not Two Groves. "Two Groves" doesn't have the same Mafioso ring to it. "hey, boss, ave ya seen Two Groves, he's late with the payment". Nah, just doesn't work.
Yeah Tim, do that again and you will be swimming with the Moose's......

[BIRMANBOY]

Like a comet passing the earth and generating high excitement...TTK has had its time in the spotlight and now is trying to regain its previous position of no liquidity and very little interest. The panic sellers have burnt off, the dead kitty trampoline experts have moved on to new pastures and all that left is a lacklustre imitation of a sought after listing......ho hum. Back to work. The only good to have come out of it is some arse kicking sound bites...which presumably will come back to haunt David Ware whenever he sets foot outside his front door.

[Baa_Baa]

While the reasons why TTK collapsed are obvious, and not helped at present by the past cavalier style of the management, there are a lot of people hurting now as their reliable divis are cut and as the chart shows, their capital decimated, and enormous uncertainty has overtaken the share price.

The immediate danger is that this share is exposed to the day traders, who are experts at scalping a few % points here and there. Yesterdays 10% up move is an example, a nice daily win for whomever has the skills to take advantage. Today however, some confidence crept in, it said 'hey, I'll give back a cent' but that's all.

Some holders will see this as opportunity, they will have confidence in the longer term that TTK can turn around the one poor performing business, of their four businesses, and if they buy now, their yield leverage is greatly improved in the future. I suspect the majority of holders are passive investors who have participated on recommendation, and equally, they will be the ones caught out by the news and share price collapse, but they are also the ones who haven't sold and won't.

That consensus may conclude that TTK will get this right in time and the current circumstances present a yield accumulation or yield buy-in opportunity that may never be repeated.

I would post a chart, but it I don't think it helps to illustrate the agony vs opportunity. That's pretty obvious.

[BIRMANBOY]

Whilst I agree with your overall view BB ...I don't believe there is enough liquidity or volume in this to entice serious traders...unless there is another surge in either direction. Doesn't look like it at moment but time will tell. Agony vs. opportunity sums it up well.
While the reasons why TTK collapsed are obvious, and not helped at present by the past cavalier style of the management, there are a lot of people hurting now as their reliable divis are cut and as the chart shows, their capital decimated, and enormous uncertainty has overtaken the share price.

The immediate danger is that this share is exposed to the day traders, who are experts at scalping a few % points here and there. Yesterdays 10% up move is an example, a nice daily win for whomever has the skills to take advantage. Today however, some confidence crept in, it said 'hey, I'll give back a cent' but that's all.

Some holders will see this as opportunity, they will have confidence in the longer term that TTK can turn around the one poor performing business, of their four businesses, and if they buy now, their yield leverage is greatly improved in the future. I suspect the majority of holders are passive investors who have participated on recommendation, and equally, they will be the ones caught out by the news and share price collapse, but they are also the ones who haven't sold and won't.

That consensus may conclude that TTK will get this right in time and the current circumstances present a yield accumulation or yield buy-in opportunity that may never be repeated.

I would post a chart, but it I don't think it helps to illustrate the agony vs opportunity. That's pretty obvious.

[winner69]

Average daily volume last 3 months about 25,000 shares ...and that includes the 500,000 plus on the bail out day

Agree Birman, not enough volume for traders really

And probably back to normal low volumes very soon.

Opportunity made in heaven for you last week eh ...never a better opportunity to get 100,000 plus without moving the market

[BIRMANBOY]

W69 I tried my hardest but its a fine line between waiting for the lowest possible price and missing out..I erred on the side of greed:mad ;: so got fewer than I was looking for. Such is life but the next month or two may well throw up some opportunities. I'm waiting for them to come to me as opposed to me going to them...besides that would drive the price up. that would be silly if one wanted to accumulate right?
Average daily volume last 3 months about 25,000 shares ...and that includes the 500,000 plus on the bail out day

Agree Birman, not enough volume for traders really

And probably back to normal low volumes very soon.

Opportunity made in heaven for you last week eh ...never a better opportunity to get 100,000 plus without moving the market

[winner69]

W69 I tried my hardest but its a fine line between waiting for the lowest possible price and missing out..I erred on the side of greed:mad ;: so got fewer than I was looking for. Such is life but the next month or two may well throw up some opportunities. I'm waiting for them to come to me as opposed to me going to them...besides that would drive the price up. that would be silly if one wanted to accumulate right?

Real possibility they may come to you...... Teamtalk that is asking for more cash

You'd love a rights issue at 80 cents eh .....maybe other shareholders wouldn't

I bought a 1000 the other day for no other reason than being able without any qualms to start communicating with Mr Ware as a shareholder .....might even offer to help him with his thesis if he hasn't finished it

[BIRMANBOY]

I believe he has been procr ass tinating re his thesis:scared: You can be sure this time he will be ready for the hard questions. I think he's a smart guy and he wont like being associated with a poor performance so look out because its "time to be dangerous".
Real possibility they may come to you...... Teamtalk that is asking for more cash

You'd love a rights issue at 80 cents eh .....maybe other shareholders wouldn't

I bought a 1000 the other day for no other reason than being able without any qualms to start communicating with Mr Ware as a shareholder .....might even offer to help him with his thesis if he hasn't finished it

[bunter]

Real possibility they may come to you...... Teamtalk that is asking for more cash

You'd love a rights issue at 80 cents eh .....maybe other shareholders wouldn't

I bought a 1000 the other day for no other reason than being able without any qualms to start communicating with Mr Ware as a shareholder .....might even offer to help him with his thesis if he hasn't finished it

Why don't you congratulate the guy on his timing selling his shares and point out he could buy nearly twice as many at current prices - ask if he agrees they're a steal.

All in 'Ware-ese' - blokey language.

[Lola]

Why don't you congratulate the guy on his timing selling his shares and point out he could buy nearly twice as many at current prices - ask if he agrees they're a steal.

All in 'Ware-ese' - blokey language.

Hi Bunter.
What did you think of Mark Reason's article in yesterday's Sunday Times.? No mention in it of TTK, but there's a connection to the main character, as I'm sure you are aware.

[bunter]

Didn't read it Lola, can't find it.

[horus1]

I agree with Reason completely

[winner69]

Looking like 80c will be the price most people be after 10% yield at the new suggested dividend rate.

Jeez bung .....great call ....80 cents it is

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL...yeh I've noticed they are lining up to buy W69. Bung should be a person of their word and "bung" up the hole which appears to be bottomless unfortunately. Probably due to David having his arse being bitten down to the bone.
Jeez bung .....great call ....80 cents it is

[couta1]

Make that a 3% yield for me:eek2:

[samdaman]

Just saying i called it too :) if i remember correctly. 78c yields the same return as 1.70 before the dividend cut (according to my spreadsheet) called it on the 26th. Im a little more worried about their debt though and capacity to actually pay their dividends. Time will tell

[bung5]

I'm tempted to jump in now, however interested to see the result to see what hit the profit so much.

[winner69]

Just saying i called it too :) if i remember correctly. 78c yields the same return as 1.70 before the dividend cut (according to my spreadsheet) called it on the 26th. Im a little more worried about their debt though and capacity to actually pay their dividends. Time will tell

Yes you did sandaman

How they handle that debt will be interesting .....somehow I get the feeling that they will get the bank on their side and hope they can just let it run.

[samdaman]

Yes you did sandaman

How they handle that debt will be interesting .....somehow I get the feeling that they will get the bank on their side and hope they can just let it run.

if they get debt under control I could see a nice scenario playing out where by they limit divvies for a while then return to their past level of dividends, there'd be a nice price hike and holders at these prices would be sitting on massive gains. Could get worse though, definitely can't rule that out ;)

[bung5]

"Dividend Reinvestment Plan remains suspended so will not be in operation for
the interim dividend. "

Hard to understand why it is still suspended when right now it would be very helpful!

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - revenues slightly (2.3%) down, Operating cost less moderately up (by 4,9%) as well as administrative overhead (up 4.8%). Some of it probably golden hand shakes for recruitment mistakes and apparently a utility bill nobody expected. Result: misery.

Didn't find any impairment for David's impaired butt - where would we look for that?

So I guess its now us hoping that they may be able to get the ship floating again, though somebody mentioned before that hope is no strategy ...

[BlackPeter]

Balance sheet no pretty sight either. Debt ratio (Liabilities to total assets) increased from 64.5% (in Jun 14) to 78.8%. I guess its o.k. if they want to compete with CNU (at 80.1% last time I checked), but do they really need to compete for the position of the most indebted Telecom company? Scarry, not sure, whether declaring a dividend is the best idea the board had so far ... though maybe there is a pattern: Buy Farmside, Hire incompetent managers, fire them and pay them a golden handshake, pay dividend ....

[bung5]

Balance sheet no pretty sight either. Debt ratio (Liabilities to total assets) increased from 64.5% (in Jun 14) to 78.8%. I guess its o.k. if they want to compete with CNU (at 80.1% last time I checked), but do they really need to compete for the position of the most indebted Telecom company? Scarry, not sure, whether declaring a dividend is the best idea the board had so far ... though maybe there is a pattern: Buy Farmside, Hire incompetent managers, fire them and pay them a golden handshake, pay dividend ....


Paying a dividend seems like very poor governance for the situation .

[BIRMANBOY]

Rock... hard place.
Paying a dividend seems like very poor governance for the situation .

[bung5]

Rock... hard place.


Short term shareprice value vs getting balance sheet healthy? sure... if they planning on raising capital.

[BlackPeter]

Peter Baines (manager of the mobile radio division) resigned and is leaving today (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209291.pdf). Not sure, I like the picture ... sounds like leaving without notice. Peter has a lot of mobile radio experience and I've seen him as some sort of counter balance to David Ware. Anybody left in the firm who can protect David Ware against himself??

[Lola]

Peter Baines (manager of the mobile radio division) resigned and is leaving today (https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/209291.pdf). Not sure, I like the picture ... sounds like leaving without notice. Peter has a lot of mobile radio experience and I've seen him as some sort of counter balance to David Ware. Anybody left in the firm who can protect David Ware against himself??

Best to get back into this stock when Patsy and Sir Paul re emerge as substantial holders again. Maybe after a future placement?

[percy]

Best to get back into this stock when Patsy and Sir Paul re emerge as substantial holders again. Maybe after a future placement?

And why would they want to do that???

ps.Still missing Winner69 and the other banned ones.!

[samdaman]

And why would they want to do that???

ps.Still missing Winner69 and the other banned ones.!

Place seems emptier right?

[BIRMANBOY]

Ultimately everything has a shelf life...a well stocked fridge will always fluctuate from empty to full. We are merely ham sandwiches biding our time. (Aristophanes third volume chapter VII.)
Place seems emptier right?

[bung5]

oh a big seller moved in at 78c

[Chaowee88]

oh a big seller moved in at 78c

Oh dear another investor who has had enough of this sinking ship. There's every chance this company can sink further, there's just so much debt..

[couta1]

Oh dear another investor who has had enough of this sinking ship. There's every chance this company can sink further, there's just so much debt..
Could be the guy who complained about the declining share price at one of the companies meetings after having bought in at $2.80 ish and holding around 600k worth of shares from memory, hes obviously not worried about getting the best price he can by dumping such a big block on at once, more likely to drive the price down further as others jump ahead with their minnow sell orders. Disc- Still holding my 20k block.

[BlackPeter]

Could be the guy who complained about the declining share price at one of the companies meetings after having bought in at $2.80 ish and holding around 600k worth of shares from memory, hes obviously not worried about getting the best price he can by dumping such a big block on at once, more likely to drive the price down further as others jump ahead with their minnow sell orders. Disc- Still holding my 20k block.

I know the feeling - still sitting on my block of TTK shares as well. Otherwise - not too worried about the short term share price (unless they want to raise more capital, in that case it becomes obviously very material). More worried about their debts (which will become an issue unless they get the cash flow picking up and getting better in predicting what might next bite Davids's most precious.

Still believe that the current environment should be good for them - everyone requesting these days better communication and faster broadband ... and they do have some (hard to replace) specialist skills related to connecting remote rural communities. As well - communication companies doing well these days (if you look e.g. at CNU, MSI). Obviously you need to balance the quality of the current board and SMT against the support of the environment. As I see it - they made now at least 3 cardinal mistakes over the last couple of years:
1) Farmside. While I think the purchase was rather complementary for their product spectrum, they obviously paid ways too much.
2) Picking the right (i.e. wrong) team and leader to pull Farmside out of the ditch: I suppose this is highlighting that a communication technology and mobile radio buff (David Ware) must not necessarily be as well a great recruiter and leader. While I believe that David Ware's skill set is quite important for the company, it would be as well important to supplement the board / SMT in the areas where he is clearly lacking.
3) Hire and Fire on SMT level ... their SMT has a quite high staff turnover - and at least 2 GM's left after less than one year (Peter Roborgh) or less than 2 years with the company (Peter Baines). Again - this looks like lacking recruitment skills (Why would you hire a guy you want to get rid off after such a short time?) and it more likely reflects on the working atmosphere in this company.
4) (Did I say three?) keep on paying a dividend despite a ridiculously high leverage ...

They say all bad things come in threes (or did I get that wrong?). So, lets see whether they learned from their mistakes, and whether the lot of new managers and board members are just another set of names you don't want to get attached to (because they will leave soon enough), or whether they can make a difference. Some of them seem have on face value considerable industry experience - lets hope, they are worth their salt and are able to work with David!

Personally - there have been times I thought better about the company, but on the other hand life taught me that to panic is not normally the best response to a crisis. And hey - there are as well some highlights: I believe that their decision to go with Motorola was a good one; It sounds as well the new projects (Chathams, Haast) are starting to deliver some revenue (though we don't know, how much) - and lets assume that they had more luck (or skills?) this time around in picking the latest lot of senior managers and board members.

I intend to hang in (at least at current SP) a bit longer - and will review the situation if & when the SP bounces. In my view the share should be at least good for a dead cat bounce, but hopefully there is still a bit more life in this animal.

Discl: holding (and wondering why I didn't sold out earlier) and as always - DYOR!

[BlackPeter]

Oh dear - probably better shouldn't have checked how this share is going: Down to 75 cents and basically no buyers (worthwhile mentioning) left. Certainly nothing which would deserve the name "support" - and this despite any new bit of information.

Obviously - it all can turn to custard form here, but given the lack of news would I assume the current situation is more caused by the one big seller at 78 cents (who didn't really manage to sell anything so far) causing a stampede of small shareholders underbidding him/her. You can basically smell the fear in the air. Not quite sure yet, whether this is one of the "Warren Buffet" moments - buy if others are fearful?

[samdaman]

I'm torn on this one, if they can pay a total of 8c dividends this year then I'd say buy but I'd really prefer them to pay down their debt instead so while it could be a nice slice of dividend I'd rather see them not pay a dividend, and if they didn't pay a dividend then I wouldn't want to be in. what a dilemma.

[bung5]

I'm torn on this one, if they can pay a total of 8c dividends this year then I'd say buy but I'd really prefer them to pay down their debt instead so while it could be a nice slice of dividend I'd rather see them not pay a dividend, and if they didn't pay a dividend then I wouldn't want to be in. what a dilemma.

I'm jumping in now and taking the risk , and while i think they shouldn't pay a dividend, its the dividend that I'm buying for. Interesting to see what the SP does going ex dividend in a couple of weeks. Will it rise before or just drop after.

[percy]

I'm jumping in now and taking the risk , and while i think they shouldn't pay a dividend, its the dividend that I'm buying for. Interesting to see what the SP does going ex dividend in a couple of weeks. Will it rise before or just drop after.

Yes best to keep my thoughts about buying down trending stocks to myself?????!!!!

[winner69]

Yes best to keep my thoughts about buying down trending stocks to myself?????!!!!

But 'this time it's different' Percy ......because you get that dividend soon and then some capital gains.

[couta1]

I'm jumping in now and taking the risk , and while i think they shouldn't pay a dividend, its the dividend that I'm buying for. Interesting to see what the SP does going ex dividend in a couple of weeks. Will it rise before or just drop after.
Your risk is infintesimal compared to those of us holding from the high $2s so go for it I say:cool:

[bung5]

Yes very brave. did the same buying Chorus at $1.38 and that had no dividend. I guess time will tell

[percy]

Your risk is infintesimal compared to those of us holding from the high $2s so go for it I say:cool:

Classic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes all you have got to lose is only all that you put into it.Total loss.!!! lol
$2.60 divie looked good.
$1.60 the divie looked good.
Not a good idea losing money.!!
75 cents the divie looks good?

[couta1]

Classic !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yes all you have got to lose is only all that you put into it.Total loss.!!! lol
$2.60 divie looked good.
$1.60 the divie looked good.
Not a good idea losing money.!!
75 cents the divie looks good?
Yeah and the bugger's keep dropping their deposit rates started out around 10% couple of years ago and its gradually come down to about 3% for my buy in price currently, HNZs on call account looking pretty attractive aye Percy.

[BIRMANBOY]

Brings to mind that old saying ..how low is low...and lo and behold its still lowering (coined a new word in its honour(:scared:) If I buy anymore of these ...my wife will probably shoot me...oh WTF..in for a penny in for a pound.

[percy]

Brings to mind that old saying ..how low is low...and lo and behold its still lowering (coined a new word in its honour(:scared:) If I buy anymore of these ...my wife will probably shoot me...oh WTF..in for a penny in for a pound.

Oh No.!!!!!
Your wife would be in her rights to shoot you.!!!!!!!!!!!

[percy]

Yeah and the bugger's keep dropping their deposit rates started out around 10% couple of years ago and its gradually come down to about 3% for my buy in price currently, HNZs on call account looking pretty attractive aye Percy.

I am not one to change things.Have had the same accountant for 42 years and have banked at Westpac for 50 years.Been with Craigs in ChCh over 30 years.
However Westpac Barrington's service is so bad I am about to open an on call deposit a/c with Heartland,with the view of moving my personnel a/cs there too.

[horus1]

Will the 2 degrees announcement affect TTK

[BlackPeter]

Will the 2 degrees announcement affect TTK

What makes you think that?

[winner69]

Good day for the down and out on the NZX today with big rises in CAV and PPL but poor old TTK missed out

Maybe TTK should come out say they have employed Goldman to look at options ......that will give the share price a boost.

[couta1]

I see our big seller has moved his price down to 74c from 78c so very keen to unload he obviously doesn't read this forum or have a lot of market nous otherwise he would have split that block up and made a smaller loss instead of driving the price down by forcing others to jump ahead of him with their small blocks. Actually I don't know why he doesn't take the dividend and add 10k to his pocket.

[bung5]

I see our big seller has moved his price down to 74c from 78c so very keen to unload he obviously doesn't read this forum or have a lot of market nous otherwise he would have split that block up and made a smaller loss instead of driving the price down by forcing others to jump ahead of him with their small blocks. Actually I don't know why he doesn't take the dividend and add 10k to his pocket.

Very desperate seller huh, don't worry there is now a matched volume on the buy side

[couta1]

Very desperate seller huh, don't worry there is now a matched volume on the buy side
Yeah at 20c hopefully they are not going to meet in the middle at 47c-Lol:eek2:

[noodles]

Very desperate seller huh, don't worry there is now a matched volume on the buy side
lol. At 20c!!! Sick joke

[bung5]

haha well they can't be that desperate?

[couta1]

Shame we can't broker an off market sale and put the seller out of his misery and make a buyer very joyful:cool:

[BlackPeter]

I see our big seller has moved his price down to 74c from 78c so very keen to unload he obviously doesn't read this forum or have a lot of market nous otherwise he would have split that block up and made a smaller loss instead of driving the price down by forcing others to jump ahead of him with their small blocks. Actually I don't know why he doesn't take the dividend and add 10k to his pocket.

Here is a conspiracy theory: couldn't it be the big seller does not want to sell at all (didn't had a lot of luck so far, and nobody really can be that daft - can they?)? Maybe they just want to buy more (cheaply ...) and are syphoning off all these cheap sells underbidding his ...

[BIRMANBOY]

Ok...Couta...24 cents that's my best offer..I'll meet you on the corner of Cuba and Ghuznee 5.04 pm and be wearing sunglasses and a grey overcoat with a Pac and Save shopping bag...unmarked bills.
Shame we can't broker an off market sale and put the seller out of his misery and make a buyer very joyful:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

HAh...maybe its David Ware telling us what he thinks the SP should really be!!!:scared:
Here is a conspiracy theory: couldn't it be the big seller does not want to sell at all (didn't had a lot of luck so far, and nobody really can be that daft - can they?)? Maybe they just want to buy more (cheaply ...) and are syphoning off all these cheap sells underbidding his ...

[couta1]

Ok...Couta...24 cents that's my best offer..I'll meet you on the corner of Cuba and Ghuznee 5.04 pm and be wearing sunglasses and a grey overcoat with a Pac and Save shopping bag...unmarked bills.
I think we could have a deal as long as you bring those unmarked bills in the most expensive bag you can find at Kathmandu ( Please bring receipt as proof of purchase)

[winner69]

Thought we were going to see a close below 70 cents today but punters saved by the bell.

Where will the bottom be?

[percy]

Thought we were going to see a close below 70 cents today but punters saved by the bell.

Where will the bottom be?

"Zero"!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[BlackPeter]

Thought we were going to see a close below 70 cents today but punters saved by the bell.

Where will the bottom be?

Well - this is the $20 Million dollar question. BTW - did anybody realize that this is all what is left in value (market cap) of this once proud great little telecommunication company? They certainly managed to grow their "little" attribute. Not so sure about the "great", though. Worst performer in my portfolio - but currently not sure what to do with whats left of the money.

If we assume that the second half is back to normal (and nothing unexpected biting anymore David's most valuable asset), than their current P/E would be a screaming buy. However - they said they expect it to be better than the first half, but not as "good" (shudder) as last year. This would put EPS below 5.5 cents. On the other hand - some lonely Reuter analyst still dares to predict EPS of 10 cents, which would equal a PE of 7. But than, maybe (s)he just didn't manage so far to re-analyse after last years downturn? Who knows?

I guess the question is whether they manage to arrest (or better compensate for) the loss of satellite customers to fibre. If they do, than they could have a great little future, otherwise we might be in for a long dragged out tragic end. What I don't expect is that they bite the dust quite now - the radio business has a number of long term customers with little alternative, but if this is all what is left, than we are lucky if they are able to maintain the 8 cents divvie they are paying now.

Would be good to get some news from them. Isn't David's quarterly update due - I am wondering whether they invested into another team building exercise - drinking through the night and playing poker?

[couta1]

Thought we were going to see a close below 70 cents today but punters saved by the bell.

Where will the bottom be?
The bottom will be where it will be ,nothing for you or Percy to concern yourselves over leave that to those of us that are 75% down ( Actually when you are that much in the red there's really very little left to worry about anyways so all good) Any upside will nether the less be much appreciated and humbly received with open arms:cool:

[BIRMANBOY]

Well whisker boy..normally I would say look "behind' you if you are looking for the bottom...however in TTK's case I would hazard a guess that it may well be somewhere in front of you....since 69 is your lucky number maybe that's the bottom?:eek2:
Thought we were going to see a close below 70 cents today but punters saved by the bell.

Where will the bottom be?

[BIRMANBOY]

To the humble the path to redemption will be revealed....either the bible or Indianna Jones in the Temple of Doom ...cant remember. I am anticipating that any, and I mean ANY good news will send this upward rapidly so am in a Zen like frame of mind whenever this share is mentioned.
The bottom will be where it will be ,nothing for you or Percy to concern yourselves over leave that to those of us that are 75% down ( Actually when you are that much in the red there's really very little left to worry about anyways so all good) Any upside will nether the less be much appreciated and humbly received with open arms:cool:

[percy]

To the humble the path to redemption will be revealed....either the bible or Indianna Jones in the Temple of Doom ...cant remember. I am anticipating that any, and I mean ANY good news will send this upward rapidly so am in a Zen like frame of mind whenever this share is mentioned.

May that time come soon??

[Lola]

May that time come soon??
Dont hold your breath lads and lassies.
Looks to me that the Knight and the Dame have hung us all out to dry.
Just stay patient though. Those regals may come galloping in again...if so hitch a ride.

[BIRMANBOY]

What are you talking about?
Dont hold your breath lads and lassies.
Looks to me that the Knight and the Dame have hung us all out to dry.
Just stay patient though. Those regals may come galloping in again...if so hitch a ride.

[winner69]

What are you talking about?

Don't think Lola is talking about Puss n Boots either

[BIRMANBOY]

Why she walk like a woman and talked like a man.....its a mixed up muddled up shook up world except for Lola...(well maybe need to include her at this point?
Don't think Lola is talking about Puss n Boots either

[winner69]

Why she walk like a woman and talked like a man.....its a mixed up muddled up shook up world except for Lola...(well maybe need to include her at this point?

I liked the bit ......."where she picked me up and sat me on her knee, And said, "Little boy won't you come home with me?""

But then after drinking champagne that tasted like Cola suppose anything goes when you in Soho

[Bobdn]

I liked the bit ......."where she picked me up and sat me on her knee, And said, "Little boy won't you come home with me?""

But then after drinking champagne that tasted like Cola suppose anything goes when you in Soho

I wonder what Lola really did mean. Lola, can you clarify?

[samdaman]

I had a biiiig crush on TTK, I was so certain they'd be the next big thing before this dividend cut. They'd been posting losses but increasing revenues, I was waiting for them to get out of the farmside rut and keep posting that awesome dividend. Luckily I stayed out. It left me feeling a bit burnt that I'd put so much faith in them. Maybe its what a lot of investors are feeling at the moment. The outlook for a steady dividend is shaky especially with high debt. On the subjective analytical side I reckon anything under 78c is worth it if you think the dividend wil stay circa 8c (even a tad under) for the next few years. Those are with my criteria, the markets may be different. Good luck to you holders, I'm hoping to the market picks back up on this fella

[percy]

Certainly great buying compared with buying on January 21st this year.Today you get 37% more shares for your money.!! Yeah right.!!
Jan 21st SP was $3.10. Today $2.25. SP has fallen 27.42%.
There appears to be a problem with this company !!! Big problem?

Posted 24-10-2013.
Big problems turn out costing shareholders dearly.!

[Lola]

I wonder what Lola really did mean. Lola, can you clarify?

I wont clarify personalities except to suggest if /when TTK is looking to top up cash to steady the ship then that will be the time to fill up. So wait....and wait.

[winner69]

Take it you guys got your divie yesterday.

At least a sign that still money in the bank

[BlackPeter]

Take it you guys got your divie yesterday.

At least a sign that still money in the bank

Actually - No. Don't see any payment coming in yesterday. However - it would not be that unusual for ANZ Securities to credit the money a business day after payment, so not too concerned (yet).

[couta1]

Actually - No. Don't see any payment coming in yesterday. However - it would not be that unusual for ANZ Securities to credit the money a business day after payment, so not too concerned (yet).
Divvy in bank this morning.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yowza!!!!!!:)
Divvy in bank this morning.

[Bobdn]

Got mine yesterday. Put some of it towards a quarter pack of KFC with an extra piece of chicken, the rest towards my mortgage.

[winner69]

Yowza!!!!!!:)

Meow meow ....purr purr

On Monday you guys need to get a huge bag of donuts and take them to Kent Terrace and give Dave and his team some big hugs and thank yous for looking after you so well.

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL W69 April is my happy month...Spark, TeamTalk, Genesis, Warehouse all combine to set the new financial year off with a bang... I might even be able to afford a cat nanny:D. Sad to say David has an office in Vivian St., not Kent Tce. Better not give the address out since the doughnuts may have been tampered with:scared: Only a few more years of dividends and I'll be even.....unless....he can pull off a CNU. If not it'll be a CURND.
Meow meow ....purr purr

On Monday you guys need to get a huge bag of donuts and take them to Kent Terrace and give Dave and his team some big hugs and thank yous for looking after you so well.

[winner69]

LOL W69 April is my happy month...Spark, TeamTalk, Genesis, Warehouse all combine to set the new financial year off with a bang... I might even be able to afford a cat nanny:D. Sad to say David has an office in Vivian St., not Kent Tce. Better not give the address out since the doughnuts may have been tampered with:scared: Only a few more years of dividends and I'll be even.....unless....he can pull off a CNU. If not it'll be a CURND.

Chances are he wont be there anyway. From what I understand he does a fair bit of gallivanting locally and globally (enjoying the good life?)

Or could be up with his teacher up at Uni

[couta1]

Someone getting very impatient today shutting it down at 65c,must need the money to pay their upcoming provisional tax my 12k left out of my original 54k would just pay my bill but I've got it covered from elsewhere,I've got the feeling that seeing where this share ends up is going to redefine the meaning of the word Longhaul:eek2:

[percy]

Someone getting very impatient today shutting it down at 65c,must need the money to pay their upcoming provisional tax my 12k left out of my original 54k would just pay my bill but I've got it covered from elsewhere,I've got the feeling that seeing where this share ends up is going to redefine the meaning of the word Longhaul:eek2:

If you want to drive from Wellington to Auckland you are best not to get on the Picton ferry.Yes I know the Kiakoura Coast is wonderful,and seeing you are on the way ,why not drop in and catch up with the wonderful sharetraders of ChCh.But the fact is you are getting further away from your destination, which may I remind you was Auckland.
As with shares you would have been better heading north on highway 1.

[couta1]

If you want to drive from Wellington to Auckland you are best not to get on the Picton ferry.Yes I know the Kiakoura Coast is wonderful,and seeing you are on the way ,why not drop in and catch up with the wonderful sharetraders of ChCh.But the fact is you are getting further away from your destination, which may I remind you was Auckland.
As with shares you would have been better heading north on highway 1. Nice analogy Percy, ain't hindsight great but I guess if your not in a hurry then as long as you get to your destination eventually that's all that matters aye, I'm thinking David Ware may need to start doing less team talking and a whole lot more straight talking.

[BlackPeter]

Down to 60 cents in soft trading - and only weak support somewhere between 50 and 55 cents. Lacking any news people just seem to lose their nerves (or their interest or both). This share might be a bargain, but not quite sure what safety margin (given the apparent risks) I want to apply ...

[couta1]

Down to 60 cents in soft trading - and only weak support somewhere between 50 and 55 cents. Lacking any news people just seem to lose their nerves (or their interest or both). This share might be a bargain, but not quite sure what safety margin (given the apparent risks) I want to apply ...
She's a tough one alright but safety margin doesn't come into it for me,I'm that far in the red I don't even see the point in selling out to take what's left, its more a matter of wait and see where things head to or not over the next few years.

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes, this point has to have some impact on the SP...I would surmise that there are many shareholders in the same boat. One might assume that this has to have some slowing influence on the price. The non holders will be saying..better to take 60 than 50 but the reality is its so far down its sort of immaterial for holders. I see this grinding to a holt at some point soon and then vultures will be looking to get in for the ride back up. The lack of volume has never been great so its hard to see where this point is going to settle.
She's a tough one alright but safety margin doesn't come into it for me,I'm that far in the red I don't even see the point in selling out to take what's left, its more a matter of wait and see where things head to or not over the next few years.

[samdaman]

I haven't caught up with TTK ever since the divvy cut but what are they still aiming to pay an 8c annual divvy?

[Chaowee88]

I haven't caught up with TTK ever since the divvy cut but what are they still aiming to pay an 8c annual divvy?

They'll be lucky to maintain any divie at the rate their going..

Interest expense makes up approx 5% of revenue... Conservatively financed this is not..

Stay away, risk and reward really does not stack well with this company.

Much better dividend paying companies who a conservatively financed out there.

[winner69]

good grief closes at 55 cents

A 8 cent divie ..... 15% yield ..... better than Greek 10 year bonds and far less risk

[percy]

good grief closes at 55 cents

A 8 cent divie ..... 15% yield ..... better than Greek 10 year bonds and far less risk

Yeah Right !!!!
But I think Greece will still be there in 10 years time.!!