VTL - Vital Telecommunications (formerly Team Talk)

[BlackPeter]

They'll be lucky to maintain any divie at the rate their going..

Interest expense makes up approx 5% of revenue... Conservatively financed this is not..

Stay away, risk and reward really does not stack well with this company.

Much better dividend paying companies who a conservatively financed out there.

Well - certainly not a company for the faint-hearted - and I agree, if they are not careful with their leverage, than they might go down the gurgler.

However - last half year they (just) could afford to pay the interest and their other bills (including some unexpected). They said that they expect the second half to be (somewhat better). So - unless they forgot to disclose that something in their outlook has changed, I expect them to come back for the full year with something like 5 cents EPS (well - better than naught and less than ten) ... and hopefully a positive outlook.

At this stage it certainly looks like the bears still have it (though quite light trading ...) - it is probably more the uncertainly and no news which makes still investors jump the ship. I believe as well that we see some change of investors (remember - this share used to be tooted by a number of brokers as ideal retirement stock with a reliable and safe dividend - Cough) from dividend seekers to growth investors.

At this stage I am not aware of any material information which should move the SP into any direction - what we currently see is just the human traits of fear and greed in action. And hey - Warren Buffet once said "be greedy when others are fearful - and be fearful when others are greedy".

So again - they might just roll up their toes nails (and I agree, this is a possibility, if they don't find a way to compensate for losing valuable satellite customers by swapping them to less attractive fiber customers), but they might as well do a CNU on us - and more than double their (current) SP over the next 12 months or whatever. I certainly do still see potential, however whether you rate their growth potential as smaller or larger as their risks - this is up to everybody's individual perception and judgement.

What I am not any longer certain is whether the current board is best equipped to deal with the situation. Maybe some of the larger owners want to consider whether we nominate next time a director better equipped to balance against a David Ware? I still think that David adds value to the board (and management), but I don't feel comfortable with him collecting an increasing bunch of lap dogs around himself, and I don't see anybody in the current board asking the hard questions.

Discl: own some (and at this stage the worst performing share in my portfolio); DYOR

[Chaowee88]

Yeah Right !!!!
But I think Greece will still be there in 10 years time.!!

55 cents is still too generous, should be more like 40.. 38 million of debt.

Non existent profit, ewwwww.

More likely to go under than stay alive this..

[tim23]

Management buy out prospect?

[BlackPeter]

55 cents is still too generous, should be more like 40.. 38 million of debt.

Non existent profit, ewwwww.

More likely to go under than stay alive this..

Hi Chaowee - would you want to share with us the source of your information and what data your SP estimate is based on?

[BIRMANBOY]

So in order to turn a company around three things need to be present. Simple in concept but quite often difficult in execution.
(A) Some recognition/ acknowledgement that we are presently knee deep in piranha's and something needs to be done.... PASS
(B) A plan that's well thought out and vetted by experts in the field and delivered to all staff and shareholders.....Apparent FAIL
(C) Some media savy deliveries on a regular basis to highlight advances and wins and presented by a believable, confident and forthright non-quirky CEO. (Quirky is fine when you are ahead but gets trashed when you are struggling) Unfortunately another FAIL.
disclaimer...still buying OMG!!!

[winner69]

So in order to turn a company around three things need to be present. Simple in concept but quite often difficult in execution.
(A) Some recognition/ acknowledgement that we are presently knee deep in piranha's and something needs to be done.... PASS
(B) A plan that's well thought out and vetted by experts in the field and delivered to all staff and shareholders.....Apparent FAIL
(C) Some media savy deliveries on a regular basis to highlight advances and wins and presented by a believable, confident and forthright non-quirky CEO. (Quirky is fine when you are ahead but gets trashed when you are struggling) Unfortunately another FAIL.
disclaimer...still buying OMG!!!

Some would say (A) is a FAIL as well. Communications don't seem to suggest they think they in ****.

[percy]

There's an old saying "we appear to have a problem."
Once you have faced up to that fact,you can work out what the problem is,and then start working on fixing it.
The board has to face up to this first of all.
From my experience, people who caused "the problem", are not the right people to correct it.
I am also concerned that the company sees fit to continue paying dividends, while the already high debt continues to mounts.

[Jim]

There's an old saying "we appear to have a problem."
Once you have faced up to that fact,you can work out what the problem is,and then start working on fixing it.
The board has to face up to this first of all.
From my experience, people who caused "the problem", are not the right people to correct it.
I am also concerned that the company sees fit to continue paying dividends, while the already high debt continues to mounts.


That reminds me back about the prospect of Feltex. The management kept saying it is ok and look what happen to it

[winner69]

There's an old saying "we appear to have a problem."
Once you have faced up to that fact,you can work out what the problem is,and then start working on fixing it.
The board has to face up to this first of all.
From my experience, people who caused "the problem", are not the right people to correct it.
I am also concerned that the company sees fit to continue paying dividends, while the already high debt continues to mounts.

Most of the board has been around for too long and prob think everything is honky dory. Roger definitely so.

So as Percy says no acknowledgement of trouble no fix being put in place .... same old plans and lots of hope.

Looking at the pictures of the Board .... OMG its worse looking than Heartland .... white as and most look older and not a woman seen. Diversity needed badly .... whose going to get that group of old buggers (sorry Mr Finance guy) thinking differently?

I think the website doesn't have the up to date Board shown ..... may be utterly wrong and no doubt the cat will put me right.

[percy]

Most of the board has been around for too long and prob think everything is honky dory. Roger definitely so.

So as Percy says no acknowledgement of trouble no fix being put in place .... same old plans and lots of hope.

Looking at the pictures of the Board .... OMG its worse looking than Heartland .... white as and most look older and not a woman seen. Diversity needed badly .... whose going to get that group of old buggers (sorry Mr Finance guy) thinking differently?

I think the website doesn't have the up to date Board shown ..... may be utterly wrong and no doubt the cat will put me right.

I would think any one of Heartland's board members,or senior management, would bring much needed competence to this business.

[BlackPeter]

TTK confirming their earlier results forecast - and making some positive noises:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212550.pdf

* on track to meet the guidance provided in February
* expected EBITDA for the second half of the year to be slightly above $6.0 million, but below $8.0 million
* currently progressing the refinancing and expect a successful outcome prior to financial year end.
* claiming good progress in a competitive market.

I guess nothing earth shattering, but at least it might help to stem the downtrend based on uncertainly ... no reason for the SP to drop?

[couta1]

TTK confirming their earlier results forecast - and making some positive noises:

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/212550.pdf

* on track to meet the guidance provided in February
* expected EBITDA for the second half of the year to be slightly above $6.0 million, but below $8.0 million
* currently progressing the refinancing and expect a successful outcome prior to financial year end.
* claiming good progress in a competitive market.

I guess nothing earth shattering, but at least it might help to stem the downtrend based on uncertainly ... no reason for the SP to drop?
Yep opening higher the vultures are circling,this share could hold deep value at these prices aye.

[BlackPeter]

Yep opening higher the vultures are circling,this share could hold deep value at these prices aye.

Yep, certainly did the trick. 4 cents up and no buyers at current levels left. 70 cents - next?

[BIRMANBOY]

Its amazing how effective a good (or even slightly positive) media release can be. Also a positive move that they are "responding to shareholders". Good work Team.

[winner69]

Its amazing how effective a good (or even slightly positive) media release can be. Also a positive move that they are "responding to shareholders". Good work Team.

You should take the credit Birman ..... told you the donuts would work ..... glad you asked some questions at the same time and that 'responded' to you

Well done

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL Whiskers69 that's sort of like congratulating an All Black supporter for a test match win because they placed a $50 bet at the TAB... fortuitous is the word for today...followed closely by ..early days yet. However I'm purring at your apparent adoration:p
You should take the credit Birman ..... told you the donuts would work ..... glad you asked some questions at the same time and that 'responded' to you

Well done

[bung5]

Yes best to keep my thoughts about buying down trending stocks to myself?????!!!!


well it wasn't so bad afterall percy . Some fun and dividend along the ride

[percy]

well it wasn't so bad afterall percy . Some fun and dividend along the ride

Well done then.!!
Nice to be proved wrong,yet again!!!
However, although it may not be as much fun,I do rather enjoy stocks in an uptrend who have the capacity to pay increasing dividends year upon year!!

[BlackPeter]

Had earlier this week another look into TeamTalk and did as well the Altmann-Z Analysis. Last time I checked 0.27 (based on the 2015HY results) is not a good rating (down from 0.41 in the last Full Year results).

So I guess - they obviously can be lucky and make from now on lots of money - and I certainly hope that things will improve for TTK. Personally I decided however that for me the potential gains are not a fair reward for the risks we currently take with this stock ... and there was a time when I had more trust in the company management (probably unjustified) than what I have now.

In hindsight: should never have bought ... or at least sold latest at the time when David Ware distributed his newsletter describing their team building exercises (night long poker sessions combined with the consumption of spiritual drinks).

I sure hope I learned a lot from this exercise (holding TTK) - it was certainly not cheap.

Good luck to all holders - and I wouldn't be surprised if the share price now starts to climb (happened before when I sold out SML :scared:, but only for a short time ;)).

Discl: Fresh Ex-holder ... and this stock is responsible for by far the largest single loss I took that far in my investment career :crying:
Maybe I should try to convince IRD that I purchased TTK with the intention to make a capital gain?

[winner69]

That is a terrible Altman-Z score

They don't seem to be in hurry to fix things do they. The bankers must ne happy

[BIRMANBOY]

The hardest thing most investors have to learn is recognising the point when is enough..enough. Extremely difficult watching ones selections behaving badly. I have been following (and buying) this down for years and recently bought at 58 but my avg buy is decidedly sick looking. The only savings grace has been the dividend. I'm hanging on because every other (well most of them) that I've bailed out of, have subsequently arisen, eventually, lazaras like and if I had only held on or better, bought more, then would have turned a sick puppy into a Crufts ribbon participant. Not any easy thing selling for a loss and its no better holding and looking at a loss...only marginally better if one has an optimistic view. Luckily I have a sunny disposition:ohmy: I'm sure you aren't the only one BP who has lost faith. If I was smarter I would be joining you but then I never was very smart....as my Dad used to say when he despaired of my abilities...you are more stubborn than my grandfathers pig!!!!
Had earlier this week another look into TeamTalk and did as well the Altmann-Z Analysis. Last time I checked 0.27 (based on the 2015HY results) is not a good rating (down from 0.41 in the last Full Year results).

So I guess - they obviously can be lucky and make from now on lots of money - and I certainly hope that things will improve for TTK. Personally I decided however that for me the potential gains are not a fair reward for the risks we currently take with this stock ... and there was a time when I had more trust in the company management (probably unjustified) than what I have now.

In hindsight: should never have bought ... or at least sold latest at the time when David Ware distributed his newsletter describing their team building exercises (night long poker sessions combined with the consumption of spiritual drinks).

I sure hope I learned a lot from this exercise (holding TTK) - it was certainly not cheap.

Good luck to all holders - and I wouldn't be surprised if the share price now starts to climb (happened before when I sold out SML :scared:, but only for a short time ;)).

Discl: Fresh Ex-holder ... and this stock is responsible for by far the largest single loss I took that far in my investment career :crying:
Maybe I should try to convince IRD that I purchased TTK with the intention to make a capital gain?

[winner69]

But your Dad still loved you Birman, and proud of what you turned out to be

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL... thanks mum:) (presently being channelled by W69)
But your Dad still loved you Birman, and proud of what you turned out to be

[winner69]

Besides not affecting dividend (hopefully) what does this really mean -

...bottom line reported NSAT will, as a result of wholesale interest rates
falling significantly over the period, be negatively impacted by a non-cash
charge relating to the market revaluation of our fixed interest rate swap
portfolio.

[Crackity]

Got it all sorted for you - urban dictionary says....

NSAT is a group of people who have nothing better to do with their lives except ruin peoples lives. They have their excitement by paying out people which they don’t know so well. If they make one mistake BOOM, their lives from then on are tortured with pay outs and rumours. Yes that’s right rumours, spreading rumours is the worst thing, like sexual stuff they didn't do, there is all sorts of rumours and a lot of the victims are quiet ruined by them. Some people leave the site that NSAT is on, some people move interstate. These people also harass their victims at their homes, on the net and even on the road.

[Crackity]

Pretty much sounding like HC actually

[winner69]

Got it all sorted for you - urban dictionary says....

NSAT is a group of people who have nothing better to do with their lives except ruin peoples lives. They have their excitement by paying out people which they don’t know so well. If they make one mistake BOOM, their lives from then on are tortured with pay outs and rumours. Yes that’s right rumours, spreading rumours is the worst thing, like sexual stuff they didn't do, there is all sorts of rumours and a lot of the victims are quiet ruined by them. Some people leave the site that NSAT is on, some people move interstate. These people also harass their victims at their homes, on the net and even on the road.

You forgot the rest -



What the NSAT people don't understand is what their victims go through; pain, lost of friends, judgment, even depression and suicide.

These kind of ****ers need to be stop and stoped very soon before they hurt the wrong person at the wrong time and they would be blamed for their victims actions. I recently had a friend commit suicide but not because of NSAT but because of people who are just as cruel as NSAT.

NSAT even make websites about people (see example) even threads on a certain (UN named source).
This is one of their many websites. www.kickthecrate.tk

NSAT #1: I don't care about you people Jamie is gay and Steph is just a whore.

Steph: You guys have ruined my life, and thanks to you's people try and run me off the road, that’s why the front of my car is dented.

[Xerof]

Besides not affecting dividend (hopefully) what does this really mean -

...bottom line reported NSAT will, as a result of wholesale interest rates
falling significantly over the period, be negatively impacted by a non-cash
charge relating to the market revaluation of our fixed interest rate swap
portfolio.

Probably means they got fitted up with some of those nice Interest Rate Swaps the local banks were hawking off. Look on the bright side though - they could complain to FMA, like the farmers did, and get compensation for the losses

[BlackPeter]

Besides not affecting dividend (hopefully) what does this really mean -

...bottom line reported NSAT will, as a result of wholesale interest rates
falling significantly over the period, be negatively impacted by a non-cash
charge relating to the market revaluation of our fixed interest rate swap
portfolio.

I'd read that as "our financial hedging under performed and did bite David into his most valuable body part". Guess their EPS might be in the 2nd half somewhat higher than in the first half year (i.e. hopefully a bit better than ZERO), but not by much. Sounds like another dividend coming they can't afford to pay.

Discl: don't listen to me ... I sold out ... however: I still remember how it feels to hold this stock.

[couta1]

The main thing for now is they have secured their bank funding for another 3 years and are making some progress:cool:

[BlackPeter]

Financials are out: $58.4m revenue, $1,3m earnings (hey, a win, not a loss!) - i.e. 4.7 cts/share. Just wondering how they manage to keep paying a dividend on this basis (another 4 cents divvie - i.e. 8 cts dividend total in the year and still managed to (slightly) reduce their liabilities to asset ratio (down from 78% to 68%. Still quite unhealthy ratio, but at least improving.

Promising for 2016 again a slightly better result.

Not sure,whether they are out of the woods yet, but could have been still worse.

Discl: not holding

[bung5]

would need to check again , but i think there was a accounting write down in the first half year

[BlackPeter]

would need to check again , but i think there was a accounting write down in the first half year

not sure about an accounting write down in the first half - maybe you are referring to the big write down they had last FY (acknowledging that they paid too much for Farmside)? The other thing is - they are regularly bitten by unexpected issues (like unexpected power bills in the first half - or "legacy issues" in the second half. Maybe David should invest in a planner ... to reduce the number of "unexpected" bills ;)

[BIRMANBOY]

Are you considering another go BP?:p..it looks unlikely that there will be any more sellers unloading....everyone remaining appears to have thrown them in the sock drawer. The only way is up:eek2: (he said optimistically.)
Financials are out: $58.4m revenue, $1,3m earnings (hey, a win, not a loss!) - i.e. 4.7 cts/share. Just wondering how they manage to keep paying a dividend on this basis (another 4 cents divvie - i.e. 8 cts dividend total in the year and still managed to (slightly) reduce their liabilities to asset ratio (down from 78% to 68%. Still quite unhealthy ratio, but at least improving.

Promising for 2016 again a slightly better result.

Not sure,whether they are out of the woods yet, but could have been still worse.

Discl: not holding

[BlackPeter]

Are you considering another go BP?:p..it looks unlikely that there will be any more sellers unloading....everyone remaining appears to have thrown them in the sock drawer. The only way is up:eek2: (he said optimistically.)

Not really - IMHO too many better looking companies around (even during the current volatility). I guess the reason I am still following this stock is
a) sentiment ... I know the industry and a lot of people in there personally (though they are getting less over time) ....
b) trying to learn ... I obviously had a reason to sell ... and I try to learn from revisiting my investment decisions occasionally to see how sound they have been. So far I am happy with my decision to sell out TTK (though they do somewhat better than what I expected).

[couta1]

Still holding and still getting divvies so should break even about the year 2055 at this rate (Good shares to hand down as an inheritance aye)

[BIRMANBOY]

I personally think we will see some steady recovery over the next 2-3 years so it may be sooner than you think Couta..also even at 8 cents per year its still twice as good as a TD for me so could be worse. Of course if the dividends stop my fur ball frequency will no doubt be raised to an alarming rate.:scared:
Still holding and still getting divvies so should break even about the year 2055 at this rate (Good shares to hand down as an inheritance aye)

[BIRMANBOY]

Just so this doesn't disappear into the furthest region of "never to be mentioned in polite company"...another healthy :p dividend has miraculously appeared into the bank account. Go you good thing.....we have faith, fortitude and f**k the fear.

[percy]

Just so this doesn't disappear into the furthest region of "never to be mentioned in polite company"...another healthy :p dividend has miraculously appeared into the bank account. Go you good thing.....we have faith, fortitude and f**k the fear.

Classic.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
You deserve to do well with that strength of character....lol.

[bung5]

Hi, Did anyone go to the AGM and able to provide a brief update ?

[BIRMANBOY]

According to Roger Sowry at the AGM ..


"There is no hiding the fact that the Board have had to reduce the dividend


during the past year.


As a stock that seems to be heavily weighted by the share market on its


ability to deliver yield, we have seen the market reduce the share price over


the year as a result.


I (and my fellow directors) believe we have the dividend now at a sustainable


level.


This was reinforced by the ability for the company to extend our Banking


facility on terms as good as, if not better than, previously."
That sounds like a positive comment as to dividends going ahead so good to hear. Assuming that is true and is not just AGM fruitcake and fairy dust, then at a current SP of 73 cents that's a very healthy dividend yield. Possibility of SP rise from yield seekers.

[winner69]

See weed wanted to see the TTK thread

Jeez he has missed a lot of fun

Maybe nw isvthevtime for see weed to buy in

[see weed]

See weed wanted to see the TTK thread

Jeez he has missed a lot of fun

Maybe nw isvthevtime for see weed to buy in
Thanks winner69. Picked TTk last year for the stocktastic competition and it lost me about 200% . So picked it again this year. Noticed the yield around about 12%, so decided to buy a small holding the other week. Thought I better put the money where my mouth is .:confused:

[noodles]

Thanks winner69. Picked TTk last year for the stocktastic competition and it lost me about 200% . So picked it again this year. Noticed the yield around about 12%, so decided to buy a small holding the other week. Thought I better put the money where my mouth is .:confused:

Our friends live in Huia. The best bet for broadband for them is RBI. They tried to get it sorted out with vodafone, but it was way too hard for them. However Farmside sorted out their connection. They are now happy Farmside customers.

I think the Farmside business has the ability to deliver outcomes for customers that the big telco's can't (or won't) because they are small, nimble, and have the experience of dealing in this area.

Now whether this is enough for it to carve out a profitable niche is another question.

[BlackPeter]

Was nearly tempted to buy back a handful of TTK shares yesterday after reading the latest newsletter. But than ... my cautious nature took over - and why should I assume that things are good, just because of David using a number of positive sounding terms in his newsletter?

So far it looks like the market is sharing my feelings - SP dropped a further 2 cents.

Just wondering - has anybody a feeling for their earnings last year? Did they make enough to afford paying for their quite high dividend?

[winner69]

Lot of stuff and things happening eh and one of them is a nice little earner. That's good

They will find the cash for those promised dividends this time round

[winner69]

From the fy15 profit announcement - Overall we expect that EBITDA for the year ahead will be a bit better than the year just gone although, just as with 2015, we expect the second half to be better than first.

OK - profits are very seasonal then

H116 might not be much then?

[Bobdn]

Birmanboy, are we happy the result? Seems good to me. Gee, even after a 22% increase in the share price in the last 5 minutes, it still has a gross yield of 18%. Nice.

[BlackPeter]

Well, as holder you better be happy - at least they managed to earn the divi (but just ...).

Revenue slightly down and earnings slightly up. Leverage basically unchanged (and quite high - 68.5%); Yes, they somewhat reduced their liabilities, but so did they reduce their asset base; Their in my view most important business unit (farmside) still writing red numbers, though somewhat improving.

Yes, dividend yield looks good as compared to current SP - probably not that good if we consider what most people paid for the shares - and obviously - they have to pay a "risk premium" - while the future does not look that bleak any more, there is still a lot of work to do to make this company again a sustainable earner.

Finding a way to grow revenues (not just profit) is one of them, and not easy in an industry where customers expect to get every year more for the same price.

I guess they turned in my spreadsheet "green" again, but still so many in my view better and less risky opportunities to pursue (though I obviously miss the bubbly at the AGM ... maybe I should buy a share or two to get a ticket ;)).

[BIRMANBOY]

Yes nice to see them working away diligently...also nice to see the dividend being met and maintained. Would have put a hole in my annual yield if that went bye bye. And you would be Bobn upn dn as well no doubt.:) Wish I had an 18% gross...Only 8% for me (but still nice) since I started buying at 2.33 and kept buying eventually worked my way down to 0.55. luckily have bought more at the lower price end than the upper end. Theoretically this should gradually work the SP up since its seems to have stabilized out a bit. As you said buying in at current levels would be a superb earner. I can see the SP working back up to $1 to $1.20 within the next year or two. Heads down bum up and no more arse's being bitten......
Birmanboy, are we happy the result? Seems good to me. Gee, even after a 22% increase in the share price in the last 5 minutes, it still has a gross yield of 18%. Nice.

[noodles]

It looks as if that part of the dividend will be paid for by increasing debt. The free cashflow < dividend payout.

Given the debt levels, I'm surprised the payout ratio is 100%.

Market cap = $20m, Debt $35m, EV =$55m

I note that the 1H16 result is actually weaker than the 2H15 result.

Really starting to scratch my head as to why the share price rose 20%. Must be that 4c dividend that the company can't afford to pay.

GLTAH

[bung5]

It looks as if that part of the dividend will be paid for by increasing debt. The free cashflow < dividend payout.

Given the debt levels, I'm surprised the payout ratio is 100%.

Market cap = $20m, Debt $35m, EV =$55m

I note that the 1H16 result is actually weaker than the 2H15 result.

Really starting to scratch my head as to why the share price rose 20%. Must be that 4c dividend that the company can't afford to pay.

GLTAH


I don't think you read the same HY report as I did;


Net debt reduced by $0.6 million.

Net surplus 1.14 mil vs 3k last year

albiet revenue flat on last year 28.69 mil vs 28,79 mil

[noodles]

I don't think you read the same HY report as I did;


Net debt reduced by $0.6 million.

Net surplus 1.14 mil vs 3k last year

albiet revenue flat on last year 28.69 mil vs 28,79 mil

Well bung5, the market agrees with you. And that is all that matters. I think we just look for different things.

There is an upbeat interview with David Ware here https://twitter.com/TheNBR/status/700146104831053824

Looks like 2H16 will better.

All the best.

[tim23]

11% net yield if they can keep improving, risk/reward play I guess.

[see weed]

For Sale...15,000 TTK shares. They are in very good condition, with an excellent div of 4cps due out on 15/4/16.That's well over 10% yld. Their has only been about 10 or 12 owners that have looked after them very well. Asking price is 78c ono, but you better get in fast because the ex div date is on 7/4/16. Good luck with your bidding :) And have a nice day.

[couta1]

For Sale...15,000 TTK shares. They are in very good condition, with an excellent div of 4cps due out on 15/4/16.That's well over 10% yld. Their has only been about 10 or 12 owners that have looked after them very well. Asking price is 78c ono, but you better get in fast because the ex div date is on 7/4/16. Good luck with your bidding :) And have a nice day. Hey see weed I've got 20000 to sell you at $2.78:eek2:

[see weed]

Hey see weed I've got 20000 to sell you at $2.78:eek2:
I will give you 2.78 for some ift or SCL if you got any. Somebody just jumped on top of my order, so have dropped it to 77c

[Mickey]

Ignoring the share price history (and sorry you guys are significantly down) - this does look like a fairly good speculative buy at 77c for someone entering TTK for the first time.

[see weed]

Ignoring the share price history (and sorry you guys are significantly down) - this does look like a fairly good speculative buy at 77c for someone entering TTK for the first time.
Very well said, I payed 73c for them a couple months ago and have decided to keep them a bit longer...(now 85c), and thats it, guna go for the div instead.

[couta1]

I will give you 2.78 for some ift or SCL if you got any. Somebody just jumped on top of my order, so have dropped it to 77c Sorry all out of Apples(But that's another story) This was one of my naive mistakes from years ago (Holding after buying in at that price) but I'm just going to keep them forever and a day as long as they keep paying a divvy, you never know I might even give them to the Grandchildren as an inheritance (They should be back to my buy price by then) :cool:

[BlackPeter]

Ignoring the share price history (and sorry you guys are significantly down) - this does look like a fairly good speculative buy at 77c for someone entering TTK for the first time.

Based on what? I guess they have nice nibbles and champaign at their AGM's (at least - they used to), but otherwise what are you speculating on?

Relying on them paying a large dividend is something which turned to custard before.

The big question is whether they manage to turn their decreasing revenue stream around. So far I have seen no evidence that they managed to replace the good revenue stream they used to get from their mobile radio division (which is in decline) and from rural satellite internet connections (replaced with cheap fibre / ADSL / WiFi). Sure - they still should have a chance to carve out a niche for rural internet / wifi / mobile connections - but just hoping for it might be a risky strategy.

Their expertise / attitude and skill sets are based on yesterdays technology: PMR and satellite connections. Their board made in the past huge mistakes. They hugely overpaid for farmside and they allowed for not just one but at least three (I remember) quite unfortunate senior recruitment decisions in the last handful of years. It is not just expensive but as well very disruptive to hire and (sometimes just months after hiring them) let go senior staff.

This is not necessarily a reflection on the managers who went ... but in my view evidence that the company has not worked out how to identify the right candidates for the positions. Their management style fits better in the world of the "Marlborough" or the "Southern" man than into today's world. Read a handful of their shareholder newsletters, if you are not sure what I am talking about.

I certainly do wish them well (and still have sentimental links to this industry). I do hope that they jump the leap into today's world and manage to stay successful next to the big players and despite lots of disruptive technology. However not sure, whether I would at this stage bet the farm based on this hope - and actually, I think there are at current better (not just) speculative buys around (looking at risk / reward potential) if you just want to make money.

Discl: don't hold

[Mickey]

Based on what? I guess they have nice nibbles and champaign at their AGM's (at least - they used to), but otherwise what are you speculating on?

Hi BP - thanks for the info. To me, speculative is defined as: based on guesses or ideas about what might happen or be true rather than on facts. Any share that falls from grace captures my interest. It either becomes a candidate for investment (lots more research) or as a speculative buy (less research). TTK has found resonable resistance in the 70c range. Not a lot of sellers out there and so there's probably a lot of people holding who have paid lots more than the current SP. I am guessing that there is a chance for the SP to get some upward lift should TTK get its house in order. Maybe they won't and then there will be some downside pressure. So, I see it as speculative - could go up - could go down.

Discl. not holding but certainly watching.

[BIRMANBOY]

Well April, my happy month has arrived and the bank balance will soon be bulging with divies...not forgetting to mention that TTK is a hefty portion. Just to remind myself that as long as I don't give up and sell I don't have a loss:scared: Still a 7.7% return on my capital so could be worse.
Winner..you still have your 1000 AGM entry fee shares? Or have you been adding quietly..you must be almost break even? Bought at .80 I believe.

[tim23]

Where did you get 85c from? I bought some @ 76 this week.

Very well said, I payed 73c for them a couple months ago and have decided to keep them a bit longer...(now 85c), and thats it, guna go for the div instead.

[see weed]

Where did you get 85c from? I bought some @ 76 this week.
My mistake. What I should have said .....Have decided to keep ttk for div and have changed the sell order from 77c to 85c.

[winner69]

WOW - David a goner
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e4940884/teamtalk-boss-and-founder-david-ware-resigns-acknowledging-staff-complaints.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TeamTalk%20boss%20and%20founder%20Dav id%20Ware%20resigns%20acknowledging%20staff%20comp laints&utm_content=TeamTalk%20boss%20and%20founder%20Davi d%20Ware%20resigns%20acknowledging%20staff%20compl aints+CID_500e6518abb94354d5893b67dff3a9ce&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlee4940884teamta lk-boss-and-founder-david-ware-resigns-acknowledging-staff-complaintshtml

Wonder if he ever finished his PhD

[BlackPeter]

WOW - David a goner
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e4940884/teamtalk-boss-and-founder-david-ware-resigns-acknowledging-staff-complaints.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TeamTalk%20boss%20and%20founder%20Dav id%20Ware%20resigns%20acknowledging%20staff%20comp laints&utm_content=TeamTalk%20boss%20and%20founder%20Davi d%20Ware%20resigns%20acknowledging%20staff%20compl aints+CID_500e6518abb94354d5893b67dff3a9ce&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlee4940884teamta lk-boss-and-founder-david-ware-resigns-acknowledging-staff-complaintshtml

Wonder if he ever finished his PhD

Not surprised ... however not sure, whether he ever allowed a successor to come up - his management style felt a bit "dated". Not clear to me who in the current team is able (and willing) to step into his shoes. Not sure either whether the board has what it takes to pick a suitable successor, but time will tell.

Interesting times.

[winner69]

David still listed as a current PhD student at Vic

Probably can become a full time student now and finish his thesis while watching the grass grow

Always smiled at the topic he is working on - Great Expectations: What Shareholders and Directors expect from Boards

Great Expectations but not Great Returns might be more appropriate

David - It's hard to pack a sad but at the end of the day sometimes you have to for your own sanity. The world is getting more stupid every day and, talking from experience, you won't regret leaving the corporate world. Come Christmas you will be saying to yourself wow that was a great year I've just had, why didn't I doit earlier

[tim23]

Good for David, I've met him briefly via one of the directors, was an interesting friendly character. Anyway I view this a good thing for David and the company, I think he still owns a few shares too.

[BIRMANBOY]

Apparently some investors are seeing some good things ahead with TTK. 200,000 in the buy side with 110,000 (3 buyers) at 65 and 74000 (also 3) at 67. That's more than the usual rats and mice. Fess up....who's up to no good... or good in this case.

[winner69]

Think this sentence (longest I have seen for a while) says no final dividend

In light of the second half earnings not improving as expected, the substantial capital requirements required over the coming period to support initiatives like the Optus migration project and the desire to afford the incoming CEO as great a level of flexibility as possible when working with the board to formulate a trategic direction for the group the board has decided to suspend its previous guidance in respect of the final dividend.

[winner69]

...and in the full announcement they avoided the use of the word 'loss' as well

[percy]

At times like this we cast our minds back to Emperor Hirohito's speech, accepting the Potsdam declaration;"the war situation has developed not necessarily to Japan's advantage."

[BIRMANBOY]

As much as I hate to see the dividend suspended...at least they are investing in new tech equipment which theoretically is going to create better and more sustainable profit. Hopeful that this may see some long overdue turn around in next years figures.

[sb9]

Hmmm...not looking good out there!!!

[couta1]

Hmmm...not looking good out there!!! What's new,my holding will be inherited by the Grandchildren, should be paying a divvy again by then.

[BlackPeter]

Hmmm...not looking good out there!!!

I guess classical example for a share being hold up by an inflated divvie. Take the divvie and the SP pops.

On the other hand - this is probably their last chance to rescue the business. They (well, the last analyst who bothered to look into this company - check 4 traders) expect revenues to keep falling - and given the industry they work in does this appear to be a sensible assumption.

Their only rescue in my view might be rural internet solutions ... just too bad that the rural economy is at current not as good as it could be. What they really need is some rich dairy farmers who would be happy to pay whatever it costs for fast internet, but these are a rare breed these days.

Glad I sold out when I did (around 80 cents and with a big loss). Lesson learned - be concerned if companies grow by acquisition - while this might be a good idea initially, they normally don't know when to stop - and at some stage they will pay too much.

[couta1]

My original holding is down 80% currently so no point in selling, it will either come right or sink completely, it is what it is, nothing more to say about it really.

[BlackPeter]

My original holding is down 80% currently so no point in selling, it will either come right or sink completely, it is what it is, nothing more to say about it really.

I just hope this strategy works for you.

I never tend to make investment decisions based on past stock performance (did they make or lose me money) in my portfolio, but based on what I think the stock is going to make in the future. If you believe that TTK will do well from here (and hey - they might ...), than holding or buying more is clearly the right strategy, but just keeping a stock because you already lost 80% on it? Does this mean the remaining 20% are no real money?

Are you sure that you see no other stock which could deliver a better return on your remaining 20%? If there is, than it might be a sensible decision to switch ... though given the current market depth (hardly any buyers around) it might be as well sensible to wait a bit until the market finds its new level.

Anyway - who am I to make suggestions? I am sure you know what you are doing ... just hope you do it for the right reasons and that it works out for you :)

Disclaimer: just talking about investment strategy in general ... no intention to recommend (or otherwise) to buy or sell any specific share (incl. TTK). My crystal ball is (as usual) cloudy ... DYOR;

[percy]

Unless I know a company extremely well, I always sell on the first bit of bad news.

[couta1]

BP I still think this company can turn itself around going forward but there's no quick fix, obviously if one didn't believe that then selling would be the only option to recover what is left. It's a shame the way things have gone because the company is operating in a niche market supplying products and services which are essential to those using them.

[sb9]

BP I still think this company can turn itself around going forward but there's no quick fix, obviously if one didn't believe that then selling would be the only option to recover what is left. It's a shame the way things have gone because the company is operating in a niche market supplying products and services which are essential to those using them.

Did think of getting on board when the divvy was in play recently (4c from memory) and sp was 75c or so and took some time to read about them, background and industry they operate in. Somehow it didn't stack up and stayed away and glad I did.

[BlackPeter]

BP I still think this company can turn itself around going forward but there's no quick fix, obviously if one didn't believe that then selling would be the only option to recover what is left. It's a shame the way things have gone because the company is operating in a niche market supplying products and services which are essential to those using them.

Absolutely agree - they are in an exciting industry and (I think) they still have sufficient expertise to turn the ship around. It is just - so far I have seen no evidence for things actually improving, but maybe I am not patient enough. And hey, we obviously need to give the new CEO (if & when they find him/her) a chance to actually turn things around.

As indicated before - I wish them all the best. I have sentimental connections to the industry and know some of the people.

So - as long as people accept that a bet on TTK is at current a high risk / but certainly as well high reward bet (in case it turns the right way) can I see nothing wrong with setting some play money (one can afford to lose) on them - though admittedly, I have my high risk money currently in other areas I consider safer bets (like oil / gold / other resources), but who knows, maybe I wish in a year I would have bought TTK instead?

[winner69]

Noticed share price in the 30s now

Might dust off the files and have another look

If It goes back to 80 cents = double your money

Not much liquidity though - verybody holding for the reovery?

[couta1]

Noticed share price in the 30s now

Might dust off the files and have another look

If It goes back to 80 cents = double your money

Not much liquidity though - verybody holding for the reovery? Recovery would be the wrong word choice, with a buy price of $2.78, I think Miracle would fit the bill better. PS- 80c wouldn't do mate.

[BlackPeter]

What a nasty graph - and without good news it is anybody's best guess whether this is rock bottom or just the plateau before the next step down.

I guess this years financials will look ugly (as per June 10th announcement) and the divi which sort of kept the price up is gone as well. Only insiders might know whether any improvement are really on the horizon, but if they do, than they are not buying either.

For anybody else it is pure speculation ... who knows, how cheap the share might be in 6 or 12 months from now?

Difficult task to value this company - maybe look at their customer base and multiply with whatever Vodafone or Spark are prepared to pay for a new customer ... but I am pretty sure, the result won't be a reason for investors to celebrate ...

[BIRMANBOY]

I see Roger Sowry in an announcement https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4211740 says that in order to "assist the new incoming CEO we have engaged the services of Cameron partners an investment banking company to do a deep strategic review of the company". Why does that both please and horrify me? What the bleedin hell have the directors been doing? Collecting their fees and going down to the pub to discuss the rugby? And why does the new CEO need an investment banking firm to advise him? Stumbling form one poor decision to another...however hopefully the review will actually spark some positive movement and pinpoint where changes should be made. Getting rid of the zombie board might be a good start.

[GTM 3442]

I see Roger Sowry in an announcement https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/directtrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=4211740 says that in order to "assist the new incoming CEO we have engaged the services of Cameron partners an investment banking company to do a deep strategic review of the compuany". Why does that both please and horrify me? What the bleedin hell have the directors been doing? Collecting their fees and going down to the pub to discuss the rugby? And why does the new CEO need an investment banking firm to advise him? Stumbling form one poor decision to another...however hopefully the review will actually spark some positive movement and pinpoint where changes should be made. Getting rid of the zombie board might be a good start.

Agreed.

I think that we should ask for at least some of the directors fees to be refunded. Outsourcing basic functions like strategy is not a good look.

[Snow Leopard]

And at the end of the day, hoping no-one would notice, Teamtalk quietly pushed their full year accounts under the door of the NZX.

Loss of $1.31M and definitely no dividend.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: do not hold, never have.

[BlackPeter]

And at the end of the day, hoping no-one would notice, Teamtalk quietly pushed their full year accounts under the door of the NZX.

Loss of $1.31M and definitely no dividend.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: do not hold, never have.

Yeah, noticed that as well. Looking at the numbers you might be excused of thinking that the end game has started for them. Only positive: they have a new CEO who might have requested to start with a clean slate ... (the result contains as well $1m write off) - so maybe somebody sees a chance of survival ...

Still - goodwill ($20.8m) is higher than the total shareholders equity ($20.2m), and there are some other intangibles as well. I guess people must have a lot of "good will" to buy the balance sheet with a straight face ;); NTA obviously negative;

Discl: not holding - but still sentimentally connected to the industry.

[winner69]

Cash flow positive

That's good

[EJK]

Still more hopeful than WYN...

[Balance]

And at the end of the day, hoping no-one would notice, Teamtalk quietly pushed their full year accounts under the door of the NZX.

Loss of $1.31M and definitely no dividend.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

Disc: do not hold, never have.

Yup - the usual sneak in the dark and hope nobody notices.

[tim23]

They had already said no dividend anyway?

[bung5]

Best hope of a quick return

"There have also been some unsolicited and opportunistic inquiries whether parts, or all, of TeamTalk may be for sale. This has helped us to understand, and inform our strategic options," Sowry said.

[carrom74]

TTK down 11.1% and hardly any buyers. Anything cooking in this counter?

[winner69]

TTK down 11.1% and hardly any buyers. Anything cooking in this counter?

It's been below 40 before .....and recovered

[sb9]

Recovery would be the wrong word choice, with a buy price of $2.78, I think Miracle would fit the bill better. PS- 80c wouldn't do mate.

https://nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/296395

Here it is...exactly 80cents offer from Spark.

[couta1]

https://nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/296395

Here it is...exactly 80cents offer from Spark. Better than its current price, although I'm still going to lose 37k with the 80c offer.:eek2:

[bung5]

Get out of jail free card

[percy]

Better than its current price, although I'm still going to lose 37k with the 80c offer.:eek2:

"You don't know how lucky you are.".....!!!

[BlackPeter]

Makes sense ... Spark should be able to integrate the business quite easily and will have no problems in funding the debt.

Actually - 80 cents is in my view a quite gracious offer - but they probably just don't want to get into a long takeover war.

I'd see this as win-win-win - while most shareholders will take a significant loss ... its better than losing it all. Glad for the employees - I assume they will keep their jobs.

Discl: hold neither TTK nor SPK, but used to hold TTK some years ago (and exited slightly above 80 cents with a big loss as so many).

[tim23]

Agree with above I'm going to take a loss but if the takeover hadnt happened could have ost all my shirt!

[Lola]

Makes sense ... Spark should be able to integrate the business quite easily and will have no problems in funding the debt.

Actually - 80 cents is in my view a quite gracious offer - but they probably just don't want to get into a long takeover war.

I'd see this as win-win-win - while most shareholders will take a significant loss ... its better than losing it all. Glad for the employees - I assume they will keep their jobs.

Discl: hold neither TTK nor SPK, but used to hold TTK some years ago (and exited slightly above 80 cents with a big loss as so many).

What goes around....Telecom sold Team Talk when Active Equities was TTKs controlling shareholder.

[tim23]

The late Rene Rivkin reckoned best place to park spare money was in takeover target 1st offer not often last and sometimes 2nd bidder comes along looks like buyers taking that view nice upside for them even if 80c successful.

[percy]

Did Rene die broke in or out of jail?
ps.Did he set it on fire?
Loved a nice fire too.!!

[Harvey Specter]

I'd see this as win-win-win - while most shareholders will take a significant loss ... its better than losing it all. Glad for the employees - I assume they will keep their jobs.I think a lot of employees will lose their jobs. From what little I have read, this is effectively an asset and customer purchase. Takeover synergies come from stripping out all headoffice/admin costs and I assume even operation staff will be superfluous in an org as big as Spark.


The late Rene Rivkin reckoned best place to park spare money was in takeover target 1st offer not often last and sometimes 2nd bidder comes along looks like buyers taking that view nice upside for them even if 80c successful.Its a very generous offer. Vodafone the only natural competitor with big pockets (?) and it is in the middle of the Sky merger so probably a bit distracted. Plus TT fibre network must duplicate its cable network?

[couta1]

"You don't know how lucky you are.".....!!! Actually I had an idea on how to significantly reduce my 37k potential loss should the takeover offer be confirmed. Buy a mega block to reduce my average buy price right down. Too tired to do the figures right now but will get onto it soonish. Any other holders thinking along these lines?

[peat]

Actually I had an idea on how to significantly reduce my 37k potential loss should the takeover offer be confirmed. Buy a mega block to reduce my average buy price right down. Too tired to do the figures right now but will get onto it soonish. Any other holders thinking along these lines?

Crazy Couta! Haha Roger will be scolding you again

[percy]

Actually I had an idea on how to significantly reduce my 37k potential loss should the takeover offer be confirmed. Buy a mega block to reduce my average buy price right down. Too tired to do the figures right now but will get onto it soonish. Any other holders thinking along these lines?

"Oh no"!!!

[Snow Leopard]

Actually I had an idea on how to significantly reduce my 37k potential loss should the takeover offer be confirmed. Buy a mega block to reduce my average buy price right down. Too tired to do the figures right now but will get onto it soonish. Any other holders thinking along these lines?


...I also note that some people seem to have the need to try and recover their losses on a stock with the same stock. That is an emotional attachment which does no good.

I would advise anyone to ensure that their reasons for holding a loss are really, really sound and if you sell out do not let the prior loss be the reason to buy in again....

That should guarantee that the take-over never happens.

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

You guys and Cats need to think outside the square sometimes, I can turn my 37k loss into an 4k-8k loss upon a confirmed takeover offer if I so choose. PS-No risk move actually.

[tim23]

Did Rene die broke in or out of jail?
ps.Did he set it on fire?
Loved a nice fire too.!!

I think he took his life but the advice has merit broke or dead he still probably hsd quite a few wins over his time

[bung5]

You guys and Cats need to think outside the square sometimes, I can turn my 37k loss into an 4k-8k loss upon a confirmed takeover offer if I so choose. PS-No risk move actually.

You reckon you can get your hands on 400k of shares @75c?

[Snow Leopard]

You guys and Cats need to think outside the square sometimes, I can turn my 37k loss into an 4k-8k loss upon a confirmed takeover offer if I so choose. PS-No risk move actually.


If a takeover offer is confirmed then even if there are sellers willing to go as low as $0.75 at that point then you need to buy 580,000 shares for $435,000 to make a $29K profit on them.

at $0.76 it becomes 725,000 for $551,000.
etc

Best Wishes
Paper Tiger

[couta1]

You reckon you can get your hands on 400k of shares @75c? You never know (VWAP today was 73.4c) but even a cent or so two more would give a good outcome. PS-Well done for doing the maths.

[bung5]

You can buy mine for 79c ;)

[couta1]

You can buy mine for 79c ;) I'll keep that in mind, you must have a good load? :cool:

[Raz]

You guys and Cats need to think outside the square sometimes, I can turn my 37k loss into an 4k-8k loss upon a confirmed takeover offer if I so choose. PS-No risk move actually.


This is a move you keep to yourself to be successful..as PT states too many attempting this will kill it.

[Baa_Baa]

Seems like a good strategy, no risk of getting those shares tomorrow first thing, under the Spark buyout price right? Less brokers fees of course, maybe a dual trade fees to work up the capital (also at a loss?) or possibly margin interest if the bank lends that much, and of course theres zero risk of Spark not buying TTK and the SP going back to .40 in a heartbeat, so must be a dead certainty. Anyway, whats another circa half $mill at risk (~15x) on top of invested loss position anyway. [sarc]

I feel ill.

[percy]

I'll keep that in mind, you must have a good load? :cool:

Good grief,they are starting to sound like a sexually transmitted disease.!

[couta1]

This is a move you keep to yourself to be successful..as PT states too many attempting this will kill it. Just thinking aloud Raz, but point taken, my lips are sealed starting now.

[bung5]

Just a small parcel. I did try to buy some on open but missed out

[blackcap]

You never know (VWAP today was 73.4c) but even a cent or so two more would give a good outcome. PS-Well done for doing the maths.

Once it is a "done deal" or it is "confirmed" you will not be able to get any TTK shares for 75 or even 76 cents. It will be a discounted cashflow type situation. Like if payment is in 3 months time, then the sellers/buyers/market will price these things at about 2% (risk free rate) divided by 4 so at about .5% or the quotes will be 78/79 or 79/80. Your best bet then would be to be on the bid at 78 but you might be waiting for a while. All the while if you do get some you will miss out on 3 months (or whatever the timeframe is) of interest/loss of other potential earnings elsewhere..... :)

[h2so4]

What if it's not a done deal?

ATM the only thing supporting the share price is the deal.

[Snow Leopard]

Couta1 reckons he is on to a 'nice little earner' and who are we to try and convince him otherwise?

Lovely Jubbly
Paper Tiger

[percy]

Wise men.........................

[h2so4]

Couta1 reckons he is on to a 'nice little earner' and who are we to try and convince him otherwise?

Lovely Jubbly
Paper Tiger

Still think it's a dumb strategy but then Couta seems to be optimistic about the opportunity of what is to come, without being unhappy about where he stands.
It's too delicate a balance for me.

[bung5]

The plot thickens

[BIRMANBOY]

Its also possible that the offer is deemed not sufficient and Spark has to raise the offer...how often do you see that happen? Yes occasionally. And if you were looking to buy something in a negotiated environment (not a liquidation) you would be usually coming in with a low offer first and then negotiate upwards depending on situation. Conceivable that TTK will come back with "we do not feel this is a fair offer and we see fair value at (0.90 or whatever) So early days yet. Couta has a plan and its not as crazy as some posters seem to think. Risky maybe but he will evaluate risks accordingly.

[h2so4]

The plot thickens

No commitment from Spark. probably just wanted to put it out there.
Who knows what will happen.

I note the TTK directors do not hold many shares 60k between them.

[h2so4]

Its also possible that the offer is deemed not sufficient and Spark has to raise the offer...how often do you see that happen? Yes occasionally. And if you were looking to buy something in a negotiated environment (not a liquidation) you would be usually coming in with a low offer first and then negotiate upwards depending on situation. Conceivable that TTK will come back with "we do not feel this is a fair offer and we see fair value at (0.90 or whatever) So early days yet. Couta has a plan and its not as crazy as some posters seem to think. Risky maybe but he will evaluate risks accordingly.

I'm sure he will. He was only buying in once the deal was done

[bung5]

Lads, Im out at 75 lads for a small profit. Can't trust the board to not screw this up.

Good luck

[Bobdn]

I'll hang out for 80 cents or more which would mean a small loss of $1750 (not counting opportunity cost).

I'm guessing Spark would love to get their hands on something like CityLink to build up their fibre clients, without having to pay anything to Chorus.

[waikare]

Chair Roger Sowry is telling us not to sell, well not yet anyway. Below is the end of TTK's media release.

The TeamTalk board advises shareholders do not sell their shares or enter into a commitment to accept any proposed offer from Spark New Zealand Trading Limited (Spark), pending further
communication from the TeamTalk board.
In addition to Cameron Partners, TeamTalk has appointed Crengle Shreves & Ratner as its legal adviser to assist the TeamTalk board in evaluating and responding to any Spark offer
and any other proposals that may be forthcoming.

[Baa_Baa]

Chair Roger Sowry is telling us not to sell, well not yet anyway. Below is the end of TTK's media release.

The TeamTalk board advises shareholders do not sell their shares or enter into a commitment to accept any proposed offer from Spark New Zealand Trading Limited (Spark), pending further
communication from the TeamTalk board.
In addition to Cameron Partners, TeamTalk has appointed Crengle Shreves & Ratner as its legal adviser to assist the TeamTalk board in evaluating and responding to any Spark offer
and any other proposals that may be forthcoming.

Money for jam, those Cameron Partners, and Crengle Shreves & Ratner. Wonder if they will have the guts to say 'you didn't need us to tell you that you're incompetent and if you replaced yourselves with a decent Board, they'd see that the Spark offer is ridiculous, albeit you seem inept at realising or recovering shareholder value and encouraged by being shown an exit door, by selling out on your shareholders one way or the other'. Disgraceful, another NZ tech sacrificed at the alter of incompetence, Director looking to get themselves off the hook, and shareholders being sold down the toilet at the behest of a corporate raider.

[bung5]

^ my thoughts

[BIRMANBOY]

Let the games begin....how badly does SPK want TTK and what's their "best" offer? Buying in at 74 current price and then having the offer upped from 80 would be a nice little profit for a trader with some cast iron cojones. What are you men/women or mice? I thought this was a sharetraders forum LOL

[bung5]

Re due dilegence
"We are in the early stages of a process that could take some time depending on how things play out."

[tim23]

Are we going to see a TWR situation but who could be next bidder? Management buy ou possible?

[BlackPeter]

Are we going to see a TWR situation but who could be next bidder? Management buy ou possible?

Hardly - just have a look at what pittance of shares the board is holding. These guys know just too well what their company is worth and so is management. Why should they get now into a bidding war at 80 cents if they didn't bother to buy their company shares at 40 cents?

[tim23]

Expect the unexpected - anything can happen. Why didn't AIG offer $1.17 for Tower before Fairfax and have a good chance of success? Its like a piece of real estate that sits on the market for years, someone suddenly buys it and then 5 other clever guys were going to buy it - happens all the time. 17
Hardly - just have a look at what pittance of shares the board is holding. These guys know just too well what their company is worth and so is management. Why should they get now into a bidding war at 80 cents if they didn't bother to buy their company shares at 40 cents?

[h2so4]

Spark very critical of TTK Board.
This could get dirty.

[Bobdn]

What happens now? Does Spark send TTK shareholders a letter? How does the deal go down?

[BIRMANBOY]

Judging by the present position of the TTK board it would appear that they are confident that the offer of 80 cents is "woeful" . They appear to be confident of a better outcome and higher value from Grant Samuel. My initial feeling is existing SH will agree with the woefulness and will hold on...if they have sat out the previous poor performance then surely most will be not desperate to sell...and why would you ever sell into a first offer anyway? If TTK board was ready to give up they wouldn't be quite so adversarial. Methinks they really do see better times ahead and are understandably not anxious to rollover and give up.

[Bobdn]

Yes, I'll keep mine and see what happens.

[waikare]

Yes, I'll keep mine and see what happens.


At the moment I intend to hold out, as at $0.80 put me as a loss.............

[tim23]

Me too - I'm expecting an offer 85 c plus from SPK its small beer for them don't expect them to walk away. TTK management have an obligation to shareholders to play hard ball.

At the moment I intend to hold out, as at $0.80 put me as a loss.............

[waikare]

Me too - I'm expecting an offer 85 c plus from SPK its small beer for them don't expect them to walk away. TTK management have an obligation to shareholders to
play hard ball.

Absolutely agree with you Tim

[tim23]

I hope i am proved right i made a comment in an earlier post on this or TWR post hat the late Rene Rivkin said parking your $ in a takeover target was often a good strategy - got a couple of comments discrediting Rivkin but if SPK increase offer his theory will be right on both situations

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah...are we looking at the same thing? "patently absurd" was the considered response (well they would say that wouldn't they, by Spark as to independent valuation of 1.52 to 2.11 of "true" value of TTK by Grant Samuels. Well even if Grants daughter is engaged to the new TTK CEO Andrew (just kidding folks....), there is the usual disconnect between what I see and what you see LOL. However apparently no shareholders have sold into the Sparkless offer so it would appear that Spark is going to have to up the gunpowder level considerably to get some buy in. As I said before the existing SHS have apparently come to terms with any losses and are willing the somewhat hobbled nag to rise, phoenix like, from the arse bitten era to a new improved steroid enhanced version.

[Major von Tempsky]

But Spark don't need to anything. They can just laugh uproariously and let TTK continue towards inevitable failure and bankruptcy. TTK are only a fleabite and it doesn't really matter what they do or say. Let them swing and suddenly the rats will be jumping and asking Spark if it's offer is still open!

[Baa_Baa]

But Spark don't need to anything. They can just laugh uproariously and let TTK continue towards inevitable failure and bankruptcy. TTK are only a fleabite and it doesn't really matter what they do or say. Let them swing and suddenly the rats will be jumping and asking Spark if it's offer is still open!

That's right, Spark can play the long game, meanwhile TTK shareholders sitting on a windfall unrealised SP gain can be strung out wondering whether to cash in on the speculation or hold out for an uncertain outcome - could be higher, could be back where it started.

However Spark obviously want TTK's market share, of rural broadband and city fibre etc, but they're not about to pay an unjustifiable premium.

What TTK needs is competitive bidders to shore up their belligerent stance, without that, and with no obvious reason why or how TTK will organically achieve a SP even remotely in the region of Sparks current offer, they're in a very weak position.

[tim23]

Clearly SPK want TTK its small beer to them I say come up with a fair offer $1.20 at least otherwise what wax the point.

[horus1]

Dont make me laugh. The Spark price is fair.The TTK board has not done anything to enhance value since the change in major shareholding years ago

[couta1]

Dont make me laugh. The Spark price is fair.The TTK board has not done anything to enhance value since the change in major shareholding years ago If TTk are worth $1.52-$2.11, then SPK shares must be worth at least $6 aye. PS-The proceeds of my TTK share sale is indeed now residing with SPK. I would have had one foot in the grave before the price ever got back to $2.80, make that both feet.

[Lola]

Lads, Im out at 75 lads for a small profit. Can't trust the board to not screw this up.

Good luck

Looks like they will
The stupid G Samuel valuation will simply make Spark disappear
Or it should

That Auckland Housewife must have written the valuation

[h2so4]

Looks like they will
The stupid G Samuel valuation will simply make Spark disappear
Or it should

That Auckland Housewife must have written the valuation

Yes No price will satisfy TTK board now. I think the deal is screwed.

[Joshuatree]

Gazzumphed!

Vodafone NZ to acquire 70% stake in Farmside fo... (https://nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/298808)

[waikare]

Gazzumphed!

Vodafone NZ to acquire 70% stake in Farmside fo... (https://nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/298808)

Where does that leave Spark ........ getting interesting now

[Bobdn]

Yes, interesting alright.

Spark would love to reduce the amount of cash it has to pay to Chorus for the use of it's network. You see this with its campaign to promote its wireless 4G over VDSL (VDSL is almost always a better way to go by the way). Spark's desire to get it's hands on TTK's fibre network shouldn't be underestimated.

I hold Spk, TTK, and CNU. I like Spark and get where they are coming from but fibre networks don't grow on trees. Perhaps a more competitive offer would be reasonable.

[BIRMANBOY]

Very entertaining reading the previous days posts...do I hear the low pitched hum of various posters attempting to eat barbequed crow kebabs? LOL It aint over till the ghost of David Ware is exorcised from the TTK corridors.

[Joshuatree]

Good luck BB. I seem to remember you've held TTK all the way through as a very good provider of divs which however stopped in April last year; are you ahead with s/p gains?

[h2so4]

Gazzumphed!

Vodafone NZ to acquire 70% stake in Farmside fo... (https://nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/298808)

Gazumped alright. Up for shareholder approval and with board recommendation.
Not looking good for Spark.

[BIRMANBOY]

Ahead..behind... these are just transitory and arbitrary terms applicable to specific points in time and are not to be talked about in polite households. There are three things you never divulge if you are a gentleman. One is the size of your...yes, correct your shoes (but I can tell you that they had to breed selectively for several years to harvest sufficient leather for the project). Two is tattling about whether the lady you went out with recently was in a generous frame of mind at the end of the evening..... (opening the car door for you) .. and lastly boasting to others about the size and contents of your wallet. (That's the other use for the afore mentioned selectively bred cattle). So hopefully that answers your question :p Oh yes I am still a SH and hoping for a re-instatement of the dividend...which after all is what I am about. Some you win some you lose but over all B Boys gross dividend haul last year ending Dec 2016 are within a whisker of previous years and enable us to continue with the cattle (and cat) breeding. Good luck to all holders.

Good luck BB. I seem to remember you've held TTK all the way through as a very good provider of divs which however stopped in April last year; are you ahead with s/p gains?

[Baa_Baa]

Gazumped alright. Up for shareholder approval and with board recommendation.
Not looking good for Spark.

Certainly changes the situation, and to think it was only last night that I suggested TTK would require a competitive bidder (lol), or be strung out. Looks like the tables have turned rather quickly on SPK's offer (maybe they knew Voda was in the market when they pitched for the whole company).

Not sure how this will affect the SP (albeit up today [on what basis?]), now that the SPK buyout offer is at risk (possibly off the table but if still interested in the remaining assets will bound to be revised lower)? TTK get $10m in the bank, but lose 70% of the returns from Farmside.

Anyone willing to speculate on where to from here?

[h2so4]

Ahead..behind... these are just transitory and arbitrary terms applicable to specific points in time and are not to be talked about in polite households. There are three things you never divulge if you are a gentleman. One is the size of your...yes, correct your shoes (but I can tell you that they had to breed selectively for several years to harvest sufficient leather for the project). Two is tattling about whether the lady you went out with recently was in a generous frame of mind at the end of the evening..... (opening the car door for you) .. and lastly boasting to others about the size and contents of your wallet. (That's the other use for the afore mentioned selectively bred cattle). So hopefully that answers your question :p Oh yes I am still a SH and hoping for a re-instatement of the dividend...which after all is what I am about. Some you win some you lose but last years dividends are within a whisker of this years and enable us to continue with the cattle (and cat) breeding. Good luck to all holders.

So your wallet is made from carcasses. That is gross. Don't the legs get in the way when you stuff it in your back pocket?

[h2so4]

Certainly changes the situation, and to think it was only last night that I suggested TTK would require a competitive bidder (lol), or be strung out. Looks like the tables have turned rather quickly on SPK's offer (maybe they knew Voda was in the market when they pitched for the whole company).

Not sure how this will affect the SP (albeit up today [on what basis?]), now that the SPK buyout offer is at risk (possibly off the table but if still interested in the remaining assets will bound to be revised lower)? TTK get $10m in the bank, but lose 70% of the returns from Farmside.

Anyone willing to speculate on where to from here?

Probably no reason to accept any offer unless it reaches the moon. Board happy to carry on with their strategy. I actually thought the half yearly report was quite good. Shareholders should be happy and from reading the report it looks to me that there was going to be a dividend at the end of year. Now maybe a special as well.

[tim23]

You can't argue its fair when independent valuation says its not and the market things its not also best volume in years today QUOTE=horus1;660309]Dont make me laugh. The Spark price is fair.The TTK board has not done anything to enhance value since the change in major shareholding years ago[/QUOTE]

[peat]

cannot everyone just get along?

seriously tho, I wouldnt have thought Spark would have wanted Farmside, they just want the Welly fibre, so TTK sell the Farm, Spk own the company at whatever price is agreed on (obviously still some discussions in this area)

[SilverBack]

First of all, my apologies for the length of this post but I have thought of a number of different facets around the SPK bid and the latest TTK/Voda play.

Interesting situation and the TTK board has thrown up a redoubt whilst under attack and fired a howitzer out of it with the sell-down of Farmside to Vodafone. All credit to Andrew and his team for this initiative.
As a key player in the Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI) funded by the Government, Voda can integrate Farmside into its overall rural offering and provide satellite service to those locations where their RBI wireless/cellular does not reach. SPK is not part of RBI except insofar as it purchases RBI services off Voda/Chorus at a wholesale level. Under RBI, Chorus provides fibre connection to rural hubs (usually adjacent to a rural school) and Voda connects cellular services to the fibre for interconnection with the national network.
I note that there is a call and a put on each side (Voda and TTK respectively) but the conditions of those arrangements have not been stated, unless I missed something in the announcement.
If SPK succeed in their bid (presumably with an increase in their offer), then they could quit Farmside altogether with the put on Voda, or Voda could take 100% control with their call. Presumably Voda will make the call in the event of a SPK buyout with $3M going to SPK, or 11c/share. That still leaves SPK with the fibre and urban ISP services within TTK along with the radio fleet services that TTK are moving to make increasingly digitalised and hence capable of being integrated with SPK's digital services. Whether Farmside was a critical element of the deal to SPK I doubt, but we will have to wait and see.

I wonder if some of the attraction to SPK from TTK is in its radio services that address trucking/taxi fleets, civil authorities, and other organisations that want widespread communications using frequencies that provide service outside the more restricted cellular frequencies. Back in the 1990s (I think) Telecom decided that VHF services were not worth their effort in maintaining and so sold them off to what is now TTK. TTK proceeded to make it a profitable niche and now that SPK has been separated from the local loop (ie Chorus) it wants to compete against Chorus using wireless services. This brings VHF services back into play. Recognise that technology has provided many more ways of providing digital services through VHF than were apparent when SPK sold this arm of their business off back in the 90s.

It is hard to see that SPK will fail to increase its offer (unless it abandons it all together) but since Voda have not moved in as a white knight for TTK as a whole, then we could still see SPK succeed with its bid even while (reluctantly) conceding Farmside to Voda.

As to the Grant Samuel valuation, in the absence of an alternative bidder for TTK as a whole it is hard to see even the minimum value of $1.51/share being realised, although a lift from SPK is most likely, even in the face of the Voda deal. Also, I do not have a lot of confidence in TTK peforming at a level whereby the market prices TTK at the Grant Samuel valuation within the next two years. One of the key drivers for TTK share price in the past has been its high div yield which has been abolished with a delayed return for it to recommence. Interesting to see in the latest announcement from TTK that more emphasis is being placed on restoring the dividend. If I get a decent price from SPK then I am happy to reinvest the proceeds in SPK with today's yield of 7.37%.

As for Andrew and his management team, it is likely that SPK will carry them on to manage the operation while introducing its own control at the board level. In other words, expect a number of the existing TTK board to be replaced by SPK appointees but it is up to Andrew & co if they want to work under the new regime. I suspect that this is likely since Andrew comes from a large corporate background at Alcatel and must have had many dealings with Telecom (now SPK) in the past.

[Bobdn]

Very interesting reading Silverback. Thanks for taking the time to set that out. Good Saturday morning coffee reading :)

[Bobdn]

"The deal values Farmside at $13 million, a premium to the $9.6 million-to-$12 million range placed on the unit in the independent adviser's report by Grant Samuel"

From: http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/94f147e9/teamtalk-to-sell-controlling-stake-in-farmside-to-vodafone-as-spark-circles.html

I hadn't realized that the Vodafone deal was higher than the Grant Samuel valuation for Farmside by quite a big margin. Does this mean that the Grant Samuel valuation range ($1.52 to$2.11) for the whole shooting works might indeed be accurate?

[tim23]

It really highlights how woeful the 80c offer is Vodafone must be enjoying annoying SPK given the resistance to their merger with Sky.

[silverblizzard888]

I reckon $1.40 is fair value for this company given risk, assets and future forecast countered by bad prior history. TTK has stable assets, new management in place and its only the beginning of the fibre network.

[BlackPeter]

I reckon $1.40 is fair value for this company given risk, assets and future forecast countered by bad prior history. TTK has stable assets, new management in place and its only the beginning of the fibre network.

I assume you hold ;)?

Fair value is when a willing buyer and a willing seller agree on a price. Not so long ago this was 38 cents per share. What has changed in your view the value of this company so much in such a short time frame?

[silverblizzard888]

I assume you hold ;)?

Fair value is when a willing buyer and a willing seller agree on a price. Not so long ago this was 38 cents per share. What has changed in your view the value of this company so much in such a short time frame?

Firstly when I talk about fair value I actually mean intrinsic value, just to clear that up. Yes I'm a holder of this stock so perhaps a bias were to arise from this (and take my words with a grain of salt), but through some reasoning maybe you might see what I see or on the contrary something entirely different. At the end of the day share price is the metric in which a buy and sell will exist, but hardly in some cases a true and fair assessment of the underlying value of the business or else such opportunity of buying undervalued stocks would not exist for us (and we know these opportunities exist).

At 38 cents this company was in a shambles, a badly managed business that failed to generate appropriate return on assets for the past few years. Not to mention the heavy debt burden of $35 million played on the minds of investors. Through my time as an investor and watching companies fall apart nothing quite does it like massive debt on the balance sheet and secondly failing to even generate appropriate profits to service that debt. So yes at that time a terrible company in the view of everyone, with an uncertain business direction, uncertain debt management given earning power and just generally bad sentiment all round. #TourismHoldings

What changed? All recent developments show signs of progress.

Firstly we have a new CEO in Andrew Millar, which means a new direction.

Bank facility has been settled with Westpac, along with trend of debt reductions being made slowly, which meant no dividends for a while until a great signal for me was when they sold Farmside to Vodafone, not only to getting a possible $13 million in cash to reduce debt, but a good sign of starting anew and focusing on the core business in which TTK did well in.

I knew people who use to work at Farmside and the stories of management there never gave me anything positive, they had a very high turnover in staff and management and was always a loss making division for TTK, not to mention the investment and time that it required to turn the boat around. Before taking over Farmside, TTK was actually a thriving business, it really shows how a bad investment can drag the whole boat down #AlliedFarmers #HanoverFinance

We have a new valuation report that at the very least values assets at $1.50 per share, but of course asset values aren't exactly the thing to go on unless its very liquid when needed and their network value is only valuable to telecommunication companies willing to pay #NotSpark. Also management could easily erode this value down, so we can never place too much certainty on this, but its good sign of value in the company. I like that the fibre network is something that would be very hard to replicate without a lot of time and intensive capital cost, almost like the railway network and we know how well that does for Buffett.

The current business forecast $2 million in profit and next year to be $4-5 million, with the reduction in debt $2 million generated isn't too bad at present times and given improving business on their fibre network and possible cut in expenses it looks very good going into the future. Fibre is still making progress, but as we can witness with Chorus the profit is in Fibre and once everyone in Wellington converts to Fibre its only going to improve TTKs revenue and possibly profits (I hope). I'd expect their radio network business to decline slowly overtime unless tech is improved.

All these developments are quite recent, so yes you have share price jumping all of a sudden thanks to Spark's well you know spark on their share price (see what I did there^^). You have new management looking to change things up and focus on the core business, a road out of debt, better business focus with better profits on its way, a large asset base with a strong moat and good confirmation by Spark and Vodafone that TTK is still a competent business with assets still worth acquiring.

I hope that enlightens you and anyone else who is unsure of my view of this company. =)

[BlackPeter]

Good post and answer - cheers.

While I didn't check your data (TTK is not any more on my watchlist ...), you do raise some valid points, and yes getting rid of Farmside must definitely be a huge gain for them given that they didn't manage to make it profitable (though remind me how much they paid for this lemon in the first place - wasn't it something like 30 million?).

On the other hand ... providing access to remote rural places was in my view (when I still watched the company) their only realistic chance to survive ... what else is left? A bit of fibre? Sure, but then, they are a dwarf compared to Chorus, aren't they? And I am not even sure, whether their one and a half fibre spots are compatible and complementary to the Chorus system ... are they?

I don't see a future for them stand alone, but sure, current strategy must be to sell themselves as dear as possible to the highest bidder.

No view on the incumbent CEO, but agree that David Ware had his shortcomings (management style of the 1960'ies ..) - i.e. glad to hear that things are improving.

GLTAH!

[silverblizzard888]

Good post and answer - cheers.

While I didn't check your data (TTK is not any more on my watchlist ...), you do raise some valid points, and yes getting rid of Farmside must definitely be a huge gain for them given that they didn't manage to make it profitable (though remind me how much they paid for this lemon in the first place - wasn't it something like 30 million?).

On the other hand ... providing access to remote rural places was in my view (when I still watched the company) their only realistic chance to survive ... what else is left? A bit of fibre? Sure, but then, they are a dwarf compared to Chorus, aren't they? And I am not even sure, whether their one and a half fibre spots are compatible and complementary to the Chorus system ... are they?

I don't see a future for them stand alone, but sure, current strategy must be to sell themselves as dear as possible to the highest bidder.

No view on the incumbent CEO, but agree that David Ware had his shortcomings (management style of the 1960'ies ..) - i.e. glad to hear that things are improving.

GLTAH!

Yeah Farmside has been a big $30 million lemon to swallow, thats part of the reason confidence in the company has been rather low, sometimes bad decisions are made, whats important is the progress that can be made in the future. Farmside was actually getting slaughtered by Rural Broadband and its actually more endangered itself, if other network providers continue to upgrade their coverage it could signal an end to Farmside.

Actually Fibre is the future of this company. Chorus maybe big, but if you do some research into how Com Com has actually been trying breakdown Chorus's monopoly in the area by letting other smaller players gain control over networks. As you see TTK have parts of the network in Wellington and Auckland, another example would be how Enable run the network in Christchurch. Once the network is in place it makes it much harder for other players to come in and all internet providers in the area will have no choice but to use theirs unless they build their own. Its almost to say if Chorus owned a bridge in Auckland and Teamtalk own a bridge in Wellington, just because Chorus might own a bigger bridge in Auckland its has no relevance how big this bridge is, unless Chorus decide to build one in Wellington, which it then needs consent to do so and that will be another consideration in the future.

[Bobdn]

Another day in paradise. However, I'm starting to get twitchy.

[tim23]

Just read the traget company statement which came in today's post - SPK have no hope at 80c and the market clearly thinks so too

[silverblizzard888]

Demand not short for a undervalued turn-around. Share price doing exceedingly well and likely to continue.

Interesting comment from Spark about the valuation report, which for an investor I want to face-palm myself (if price were everything then premium prices on tech companies would be absolutely justified instead of fundamentals! I believe the famous saying is, price is what you pay, value is what you get)

"We believe the valuation lacks real world credibility," said Spark chief financial officer David Chalmers. "The top end of the range represents a premium to the last trading price before the Spark notice of intention of 369 per cent, which is patently absurd."
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11824006

[BIRMANBOY]

LOL Bobdn...make sure you don't suffer pre share jaculation:p (if you be man) or of course if a woman it could be a multi-orgasmic going on for days or weeks? However your call of course....I'm riding this one out whatever happens but love seeing some action finally.

Another day in paradise. However, I'm starting to get twitchy.

[BIRMANBOY]

Isn't hindsight a bugger sometimes....I remember looking seriously at this when it was languishing in the 40's and thinking..wow what an opportunity to average down my buy price quickly and for very little money. Unfortunately at the time cash was a bit short so I let it go. Wow what a mistake that was. As I've said before the DeLorean is always in the flippin garage when I need to borrow it:(

[Bobdn]

Don't beat yourself up. I reread the whole thread last night and see you picked some up in the 50 cent range. Excellent buying and combined with the mega dividends over the last 10 years I'm sure things are working out just dandy for you now.

[Major von Tempsky]

Looks like Team Talk is a goner from the price behaviour over the last 3 days. A major holder/holders must have seen sense and made some promises to Spk - anyone have any info on that?

[SilverBack]

Looks like Team Talk is a goner from the price behaviour over the last 3 days. A major holder/holders must have seen sense and made some promises to Spk - anyone have any info on that?

I don't see how you can say TTK is a "goner". The SPK offer at 80c is still on the table unless you have knowledge that they are going withdraw their bid in view of Voda buying 70% of Farmside? If that should happen then it is back to the long wait for the new management to turn the company around and restore dividends. Even then, I very much doubt if the share price will head back to 40c odd since, if nothing else, these corporate actions are showing that the company has more value than that.
As to the radio network, it may seem "old hat" and a sunset technology but fleets still find it a good form of communication and organisations wanting alternative comms with a better reach than cellular are going to remain interested. As to sunset technology, that is not really the case because there is continuing development for it, which is why part of Andrew's strategy is to increase value by applying digital services over it. This requires investment in new equipment and services. Has anyone researched what transfer speeds can be achieved over radio these days? I don't have time right now to do that.

[Major von Tempsky]

My understanding from what I've read is that the Farmside deal doesn't go ahead if Spark takes TTK out and of course in that case TTK will no longer be quoted i.e. no share price. I think the days for assuming business as usual are gone.

[Bobdn]

Ok, sold 25 per cent of my shares (6600) for $1. That means a nice little profit. I bought at .93 and have received three dividends. High roller!

Now that I've relieved some tension, ill hold the rest to see what happens. I enjoy an adventure.

[BIRMANBOY]

That's probably a lot better than most investors Bobdn. There has been (relatively speaking) a lot of action in that 80 to $1 range and there wont be too many holding at a lower price than yours so your downside potential is low in my opinion. Certainly the independent valuers would support that as well. As you say interesting and adventurous times ahead. I must admit most of my mistakes have been selling earlier than I should rather than later. Hope I am correct this time but nothing is guaranteed in the share market.
Ok, sold 25 per cent of my shares (6600) for $1. That means a nice little profit. I bought at .93 and have received three dividends. High roller!

Now that I've relieved some tension, ill hold the rest to see what happens. I enjoy an adventure.

[couta1]

Spark playing hardball, 80c offer is the final one and it will lapse if the Vodafone deal goes through. Good on them for remaining firm, and taking no notice of that inflated independent valuation. The important bit from Sparks release is when they say, Teamtalk shareholders should carefully consider whether they prefer a clear exit with the Spark offer, or to continue and invest in Teamtalk and rely upon the board and management to deliver the turnaround they have talked about.

[BIRMANBOY]

Everybody loves a bargain and SPK is no different...they are playing a game of poker and trying to be staunch but I find it hard to believe that SH's will accept that the SPK offer is so far off the independent valuers report. Just saying its worth 80 cents simply is an indication of what they would like to spend NOT what its worth. As is usual with these camel markets it all comes down to perception and who is "selling" their position in the most effective manner. Having originally offered 60 cents and now upping it to 80 cents is just indicative of a negotiating manoeuvre. if they had upped it to 65 then this is saying "we are almost at our limit" so your counter offer better be close. Going from 60 to 80 is just saying "ok we know that the 60 was a "cheeky" offer...our bad but here is our real bid 80 cents. This indicates to me that they are willing to pay more..maybe up to a $1 however I would guess that if they cannot get it at a "steal" they will just ditch it. This of course brings the situation back to whether you as a SH can buy into the new improved management structure and hint of a turnaround. Grant Samuels didn't pull that valuation out of their A***. It may well be a little rosy but they examined the whole shebang and wouldn't be hugely out.
Spark playing hardball, 80c offer is the final one and it will lapse if the Vodafone deal goes through. Good on them for remaining firm, and taking no notice of that inflated independent valuation. The important bit from Sparks release is when they say, Teamtalk shareholders should carefully consider whether they prefer a clear exit with the Spark offer, or to continue and invest in Teamtalk and rely upon the board and management to deliver the turnaround they have talked about.

[tim23]

Really? Can only recall getting just one 4c divvy since they slipped below $1?
Ok, sold 25 per cent of my shares (6600) for $1. That means a nice little profit. I bought at .93 and have received three dividends. High roller!

Now that I've relieved some tension, ill hold the rest to see what happens. I enjoy an adventure.

[Snow Leopard]

Really? Can only recall getting just one 4c divvy since they slipped below $1?

3 since Jan-15
https://nzx.com/markets/NZSX/securities/TTK/dividends

BW
PT

[Bobdn]

Yes, 3 x $930 net dividends for me. Such a sucker for a good yield. Oh well, nice while it lasted.

[BIRMANBOY]

Remember TTK has indicated it would consider reinstating dividend in 2018..of course that could be or should be regarded as a possibility as opposed to a certainty and also of course the size of the dividend is unknown. Since this has always been regarded as a dividend stock it would be fair to say that there will be a certain degree of pressure on the board to reinstate to a decent amount. Failure to do this would cause a massive loss of existing SH (including myself). Patience is one thing but failure to get some work done and produce results is terminal.
Yes, 3 x $930 net dividends for me. Such a sucker for a good yield. Oh well, nice while it lasted.

[Major von Tempsky]

Well guys, TTK shares are currently crossing at 80cps....what does this mean?

[Lola]

lads, im out at 75 lads for a small profit. Can't trust the board to not screw this up.

Good luck

well bung
presciant comment above from you only a few weeks ago.

[BIRMANBOY]

It probably means nothing..this and most of the previous recent couple of weeks would appear to be all traders trading. All it reflects is the expectation level as to whether SPK will up the offer. It would appear these punters think not. It doesn't change the situation as per major issue which is... are SH going to agree to TTK selling a portion of Farmside to Vodaphone. In my HO this will go ahead and SPK will fall away and TTK will go back to business ..hopefully more successfully and with 10 million less debt. Regards all the new holders holding between 80 and $1 some will dump and run and some will stay. This could mean SP may fade a little but I cannot see it going back down to 40 again. The Grant Samuels report hopefully has sunk that possibility.
Well guys, TTK shares are currently crossing at 80cps....what does this mean?

[BIRMANBOY]

Hah he probably wishes he had held on until it hit $1 ..but useless second guessing these things. it is what it is and we all make the best decision we can and only much later do we actually get any clarity.
well bung
presciant comment above from you only a few weeks ago.

[Leftfield]

Well guys, TTK shares are currently crossing at 80cps....what does this mean?

Perhaps it means that Bobdn did well selling 25% of his shares at $1 and now probably wishes he has sold more?

[Bobdn]

Only time will tell :)

[Major von Tempsky]

Gosh, that's a bit sad for you fellas, current quote for TTK last sale 80cps, buyers 78cps, sellers 80cps. You oughtta be grateful to Spark for supporting the market :-)

[Bobdn]

Be happy about Spark's rise in price and juicy dividends. No need to troll us.

[Major von Tempsky]

Now crossing at 77 cents per share! Must mean punters no longer believe Spark's bid is going ahead so there's no underpinning to the market...

[bung5]

Hah he probably wishes he had held on until it hit $1 ..but useless second guessing these things. it is what it is and we all make the best decision we can and only much later do we actually get any clarity.

Yeah for sure. You can still sell today higher so not too good of a call :P .
Although I did put it in to air.nz which has payed a nice fat div and up 15% so all is well.

[silverblizzard888]

I'd remind everyone of two takeover offers one for KMD and the other ATM, look how promising they have ended up by refusing the deal. Their share price shot up on takeover offer, sank back down after offer was gone and now the companies are flourishing after. Spark and Vodafone won't be wanting to take TTK's assets if they aren't going to be more useful in the future.

[couta1]

I'd remind everyone of two takeover offers one for KMD and the other ATM, look how promising they have ended up by refusing the deal. Their share price shot up on takeover offer, sank back down after offer was gone and now the companies are flourishing after. Spark and Vodafone won't be wanting to take TTK's assets if they aren't going to be more useful in the future. KMD share price currently at $1.93, only 13c above the Rod Duke offer, hardly what you would call flourishing for a share that went over $4 just a few years ago.

[silverblizzard888]

KMD share price currently at $1.93, only 13c above the Rod Duke offer, hardly what you would call flourishing for a share that went over $4 just a few years ago.

You have to remember at its low it got to $1.30 and the reason its up now to $1.93 is that its proven to have value, not only have shareholders recieved dividends in that time, but a decent capital gains has been made and the way I see it KMD will continue to rise this year as their profits improve. The return shareholders have made by holding from the bottom to now is substantially higher than average market returns. From the takeover price its not a ton more, but 13 cents is capital gains plus 11 cents in dividends in past 12 months, thats 24 cents or 12.4% return, which on market averages is great itself.

[winner69]

You have to remember at its low it got to $1.30 and the reason its up now to $1.93 is that its proven to have value, not only have shareholders recieved dividends in that time, but a decent capital gains has been made and the way I see it KMD will continue to rise this year as their profits improve. The return shareholders have made by holding from the bottom to now is substantially higher than average market returns. From the takeover price its not a ton more, but 13 cents is capital gains plus 11 cents in dividends in past 12 months, thats 24 cents or 12.4% return, which on market averages is great itself.

But it could have heaps more taking Rods money .....that $1.80 he offered now worth $2.50 at least

[silverblizzard888]

But it could have heaps more taking Rods money .....that $1.80 he offered now worth $2.50 at least

Yeah you're absolutely right about that, the money and share offer would have been worth quite a bit more than current price, but I'm more just point out the fact that takeover targets have a tendency to do well even when takeover doesn't eventuate. It might well happen that if Spark takeover TTK that it will perform better.

[SilverBack]

Sorry guys but if you want to discuss KMD then please move to that thread.
Agreed that SPK are playing hardball but I sold down 50% of my holding all the same to protect against SPK ditching the offer if the Voda deal is passed (which I think is likely because I suspect the major shareholders will support it, many of whom have been long term supporters of TTK). SPK changing their terms for the bid to remain if more than 50% holding is achieved indicates that they are not running away but will seek to establish control of TTK regardless of management's fight-back. In that case expect SPK to attempt full control further down the line but in the meantime to bring TTK into its fold. (Some interesting board room action if SPK get between 50 and 90% control. I would expect a new Chairman but the CEO may well continue. All my own thoughts, nothing more than this).
In any case, a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and so on that reckoning, after selling down, I am now owed nothing. I bought in on the big drop earlier with divs still being paid in order to catch the high yield and as a recovery stock and then topped up around 40c. Well, on that basis I have a good recovery and with divs the return makes this a quite satisfactory play. I doubt the high yields will return too soon, even if the SPK bid fails because TTK faces substantial capital costs around relocating its Wgtn fibre going forward along with investment in radio digital services.
I previously avoided TTK because I was aware of the low broadband margins and savage competition with broadband suppliers and considered the company over-valued in the face of that competition. At the same time I recognised its niche market with radio. The rural scene was clearly going to change with RBI and now RBI2 is on the way. My thinking has been borne out in the case of Farmside while the urban broadband market continues to be savage. I bought in because I felt that, as usual, the market over-reacted to the impact of the broadband issues and lost sight of other strengths.
Andrew coming in, is to me, a positive because he comes from a corporate telecom background at Alcatel and so understands SPK and other competitors. I think the Voda deal is a reflection of this.
Where to from here? I suspect that SPK will do what they have said and that the threat over the Voda deal is real. Every man to his opinion but this is mine and time will tell. Of course, TTK have a put on Farmside to Voda and so SPK can cause the put if they get control of TTK. What I do not know are the terms of the put and what strategic value SPK have placed on Farmside.

[blackcap]

Did anyone go to the meeting today and what were your views? I see the resolution was passed resoundingly. So more cash for TTK and balance sheet improved. Hope the SP gets back to 46 to buy some but I doubt that.

[tim23]

You really wonder why SPK bothered with the takeover?

[BlackPeter]

You really wonder why SPK bothered with the takeover?

Not really ... a couple of weeks ago submitted both Vodafone as well as Spark plans to the government to improve rural broadband and mobile reception (heard that on RNZ). I assume that both companies planned the TTK - Farmside bits as integral part of their offer. This was probably the reason for Sparks takeover offer (getting Farmside), and certainly the reason for Vodafone to snap Farmside away from them.

The rest of the company will have quite limited appeal to any big Telco. What do you expect Spark to do? Start a Mobile Radio division?

[horus1]

The key is that wireless is bypassing fibre and that puts value in backhaul fibre, not fibre to the home, which teamtalk have, It also destroys the govt arguments for the fibre rollout and makes much of it unnecessary. It is called technological change. I have been taken off copper and put on wireless by spark. it was simple and works well and is cheaper than fibre. The same is going to happen in electricity, read Collins speech after she returned from USA.

[Zaphod]

The key is that wireless is bypassing fibre and that puts value in backhaul fibre, not fibre to the home, which teamtalk have, It also destroys the govt arguments for the fibre rollout and makes much of it unnecessary.

IMO wireless doesn't "destroy the govt arguments for the fibre rollout". Wireless is to fibre as to what the microwave is to the oven. Each has their own set of advantages & disadvantages and hence use cases, which in respect of the RBI anoints wireless as a clear winner, principally due to implementation cost. The UFB rollout of FTTH provides urban NZ with a much higher speed, lower latency and far more cost-effectively expandable bandwidth than that which is available via the wireless spectrum, even taking into account the as yet undefined 5G standards.

[bung5]

I have been taken off copper and put on wireless by spark. it was simple and works well and is cheaper than fibre. The same is going to happen in electricity, read Collins speech after she returned from USA.


Spark have pulled the wool over your eyes. Unless you can't get VDSL , wireless performance won't match copper. Average monthly data usage for NZ is 120gb per month ,double that on fibre. With that growth continuing wireless (4g) won't be able to keep up.

[horus1]

Well I am far happier and its cheaper. My wireless performance is better than copper and you have to rewire for VDSL. Read the spark latest report and the no going on wireless instead of fibre.It does destroy the economics .I think that is why spark is gaining share price and chorus going down.

[bung5]

I agree short term is more revenue for spark and less for chorus. I think your opinion my change in a year or so when the they oversell the 4g network and you find it going a bit slower. Maybe not , you may just use internet for emails and light browsing in which case its fine.

Sorry getting bit off topic on TTK now. Need a combined telco thread for interesting dynamics between all these listed players

[Baa_Baa]

Well I am far happier and its cheaper. My wireless performance is better than copper and you have to rewire for VDSL. Read the spark latest report and the no going on wireless instead of fibre.It does destroy the economics .I think that is why spark is gaining share price and chorus going down.

You shouldn't have to re-wire for VDSL, it's the same old copper wires from the street into your home and they make a change to your port at the switch (that's the cabinet out on the road somewhere nearby) .. then bingo, your speeds ramp up, a lot.

Anyway that won't bother you if you're happy to have shifted to wireless broadband. In my case I have a household who have umpteen devices connected at all times and they are simultaneously and constantly smashing the internet, so we like wired VDSL which is the only high speed option in Paradise, where I live.

[Baa_Baa]

Run this on your Mobile, VDSL, Fibre .. let us know what your speeds are, and whether anyone else is using your connection at the same time: http://www.speedtest.net

VDSL : Mine right now, 8:40pm week night is 36 down 6 up. We have mum streaming Lightbox, daughter streaming a Netflix movie, and son smashing the internet on some Xbox live game with half a dozen of his mates.

Lucky I even get a connection! Lol.

Try that with rural mobile broadband.

[bung5]

Yeah I think the growth of data that is growing at a rapid rate will quickly make wireless broadband unfeasible option for most.

(92mbit on fibre)

[horus1]

I remember asking Crown Fibre what use fibre to the home was and being told it was to run movies. The average household doesn"t need it . Wireless advances will give more capacity. I will not hold shares in any telecomms companies because the rate of technological change does not give enough time to recover investments and that includes TTK.Surely the losses on the recent purchase must make you doubt the boards capability.$20m.??

[bung5]

I think most people will be watching TV/movies over internet . Even if sky isn't completely taken over by its competitors it will makes sense for it to deliver its content over fibre/IP ...much cheaper than satellite .

38% of Teens Watch Netflix Every Day; More Than YouTube and Cable TV
https://www.streamingobserver.com/netflix-youtube-dominate-teens-daily-video-consumption-cable-falls/

[Major von Tempsky]

So TeamTalk is down to 74, 6cps below Spark's offer.

Is that part of TTKs plan? Everyone would have done much better to sell out at 80 cps on the market before Spark's offer lapsed!

Methinks the TTK directors and management were primarily concerned about their director's fees and salaries and couldn't give a stuff about the TTK shareholders to whom they made bold, untrue assertions!

[tim23]

What kind of plan would that be? Besides the market dictates the share price not the management. Sellers now could be booking profit from recent purchases in the 40-50c range who knows? I'm considering buying a few more.

[Major von Tempsky]

The market gives a weighted and usually informed view of the management's ability,or lack of it. Consider TTK's trajectory before the Spark offer came up.

Before I buy into a share I consider, inter alia, can I buy in and out, without moving the price?

Certainly you could probably buy in, at the moment, but out?

How good will the dividends be? On history, not. What share price growth will there be? Probably negative, given the pre Spark trajectory.

[tim23]

Fair enough - actually over $1 could have been comfortably achieved not 80c I guess time will tell but they have said dividends likely to be restored.

[Baa_Baa]

The market gives a weighted and usually informed view of the management's ability,or lack of it. Consider TTK's trajectory before the Spark offer came up.

Before I buy into a share I consider, inter alia, can I buy in and out, without moving the price?

Certainly you could probably buy in, at the moment, but out?

How good will the dividends be? On history, not. What share price growth will there be? Probably negative, given the pre Spark trajectory.

And the market thought TTK was worth about half of what Spark offered, before the offer, and before TTK sold off a significant chunk of the business to Voda. Result being that while there's going to be a healthy cash balance from the sale, the revenue and profit profile reduce significantly. Ergo the value of the company is re-rated from here to whatever the market thinks the cash balance + the remaining business is worth.

TBH I wouldn't be surprised if the Board who have really struggled to realise the company vision with some poor acquisitions that never really fire up, have no idea how to re-invest the returns from selling assets and fritter that away on unwarranted dividends to shareholders, like a equity return. That would leave them with pre-Voda sale SP, minus cash, equals less than the SP before the Spark offer and the sale.

Anyway who knows, it remains to be seen how TTK respond to having a pile of cash, a smaller business, and a predisposition to rewarding shareholders with dividends.

[Major von Tempsky]

I think that TTK are the prisoners of some self serving Directors and upper management who will reward themselves voraciously from the cash pile until it is rapidly exhausted. As you say the selling price of TTK will then be well down on the 80cps Spark offered and the future will be very dim, TTK can't foot it with the big players.
What I can't understand is why all the shareholders who aren't personally directors didn't take the 80cps that was on offer and run. The price is already down to 70cps! They were the prisoners of sleepiness and morons to boot.

[BlackPeter]

I think that TTK are the prisoners of some self serving Directors and upper management who will reward themselves voraciously from the cash pile until it is rapidly exhausted. As you say the selling price of TTK will then be well down on the 80cps Spark offered and the future will be very dim, TTK can't foot it with the big players.
What I can't understand is why all the shareholders who aren't personally directors didn't take the 80cps that was on offer and run. The price is already down to 70cps! They were the prisoners of sleepiness and morons to boot.

Human psychology - check out the "endowment effect": humans typically value things they own (just because they own them) more than the things they don't own. Makes it difficult to separate a holder from his/her shares, particularly if they paid much more than what is on offer to acquire them.

[tim23]

And the market thought TTK was worth about half of what Spark offered, before the offer, and before TTK sold off a significant chunk of the business to Voda. Result being that while there's going to be a healthy cash balance from the sale, the revenue and profit profile reduce significantly. Ergo the value of the company is re-rated from here to whatever the market thinks the cash balance + the remaining business is worth.

TBH I wouldn't be surprised if the Board who have really struggled to realise the company vision with some poor acquisitions that never really fire up, have no idea how to re-invest the returns from selling assets and fritter that away on unwarranted dividends to shareholders, like a equity return. That would leave them with pre-Voda sale SP, minus cash, equals less than the SP before the Spark offer and the sale.

Anyway who knows, it remains to be seen how TTK respond to having a pile of cash, a smaller business, and a predisposition to rewarding shareholders with dividends.

The company after selling off Farmside will look like the company before Farmside purchase bssic but dividend paying.

[Baa_Baa]

The company after selling off Farmside will look like the company before Farmside purchase bssic but dividend paying.

And what do you think that is worth? 0.80 that Spark offered? More than that which some thought possible? Less than that, which the market currently values it at? Or way less back at 0.40 before the offer? Or even less than that, now that Farmside is sold and the revenue and profits are gone in lieu of a capital nest egg?

Tough isn't it. IMHO shareholders looked a gift horse in the mouth if they didn't flick their shares into the market rise on the Spark offer, goodness me, 100% return just like that. Maybe they're all smarting from having bought in well before 0.40? Who knows, only they can say.

[tim23]

Farmside have never made them money not sure why you don't get that bit?QUOTE=Baa_Baa;664734]And what do you think that is worth? 0.80 that Spark offered? More than that which some thought possible? Less than that, which the market currently values it at? Or way less back at 0.40 before the offer? Or even less than that, now that Farmside is sold and the revenue and profits are gone in lieu of a capital nest egg?

Tough isn't it. IMHO shareholders looked a gift horse in the mouth if they didn't flick their shares into the market rise on the Spark offer, goodness me, 100% return just like that. Maybe they're all smarting from having bought in well before 0.40? Who knows, only they can say.[/QUOTE]

[Baa_Baa]

Farmside have never made them money not sure why you don't get that bit?

Oh I get it alright, but you didn't answer the question or even acknowledge it, about what you think TTK's worth without Farmside. It will have a pile of cash, residual assets with revenue and maybe even some profit, so what do you think it's worth? Sniping from the sidelines is easy, answering the question is not. Maybe just let the market answer it for you eh? It will anyway, whatever happens.

[tim23]

What you don't get is it was worth way more without Farmside, share price was north of $3.00 and gone south ever since acquisition. I think its that simple so the cash cow it was not.
Oh I get it alright, but you didn't answer the question or even acknowledge it, about what you think TTK's worth without Farmside. It will have a pile of cash, residual assets with revenue and maybe even some profit, so what do you think it's worth? Sniping from the sidelines is easy, answering the question is not. Maybe just let the market answer it for you eh? It will anyway, whatever happens.

[tim23]

Encouraging pre announcement today anyone buying - me thinking of adding to my lot maybe a dividend might arrive early?

[carrom74]

Encouraging pre announcement today anyone buying - me thinking of adding to my lot maybe a dividend might arrive early?

Sold it at 75c when spark was offering 80c...regretted it...Entered again today at 79c no regrets(so far:cool:)...

I am expecting dividends for sure.Should be more than 4c this time.

[tim23]

I reread the company statement rejecting the takeover confident dividend next year but earlier would see a nice bump in share price.

[carrom74]

I reread the company statement rejecting the takeover confident dividend next year but earlier would see a nice bump in share price.

There are two statements...during the takeover bid...one dated 9th March 2017 which reads that he may start paying dividends from July 2017 and the directors one reads about paying from 2018... whom to believe??

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/254613.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255342.pdf

[kiora]

There are two statements...during the takeover bid...one dated 9th March 2017 which reads that he may start paying dividends from July 2017 and the directors one reads about paying from 2018... whom to believe??

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/254613.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/255342.pdf

If in doubt stay out!

[tim23]

Too pessimistic remember pre Farmside paid 20c dividend

[BlackPeter]

Too pessimistic remember pre Farmside paid 20c dividend

Sure - but times and technology are changing. There was a time as well that inns could make good money with feeding and swapping horses ... does not mean that horse and cart are the money makers of today ;).

Every additional cellphone tower set up somewhere further reduces TTK's business case. They tried with Farmside to gain entry into today's communication world but flopped due to lack of critical mass (and probably as well due to bad management). However - selling their entry ticket does not make them profitable or future proof.

[tim23]

Fair point but the profit projections should support a decent dividend maybe not 20c but 10c at least

[Major von Tempsky]

After the one-off sale to Vodafone they're a dead man walking.

Far better to have sold off to Spark.

[tim23]

Maybe but they made more $ prior to Farmside that never earned a dollar for them

[tim23]

Anyone noticing a nice little lift this year - latest 87c

[Hawkeye]

Something is definitely going on but no one is saying

[tim23]

Looks interesting up again today...