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Sauce
16-04-2004, 10:22 PM
This company seems to have a monopoly position in a niche market within the communucations industry.

Major risks include commercially competitive technological advances in the cellular / mobile radio market.

positives include monopoly market share with very high barriers to competitive entry (high startup costs etc).



Forsyth barr are have a valuation range of $2.29 - $2.64. Although they are the lead brokers for the issue.

Listing May 6th, issue price of $1.75 giving a market capitalisation of $35m.

Prospectus forecasts a divvy of 12.8pc per annum, (with the an interim dividend payout in May straight after listing).

According to Forsyth Barr the issue has been VERY popular. I managed to get a few - not as much as I would have liked, anyone have any interesting thoughts on this company?

devito
18-04-2004, 08:40 PM
Only 8 million being sold. I tried to get some but FOSBAR didn't want a bar of me.

devito
18-04-2004, 08:41 PM
Who are you? and why are you trying to talk up the stock. You must have got a few!:D

Sauce
19-04-2004, 07:55 AM
Well actually, I did make an attempt to ensure my post was balanced by pointing out downside risk and the conflict of interest of the lead brokers valuation ;)

I certainly didnt get as many as I wanted. It pays to make the odd trade through all the main retail brokers to ensure access to these opportunities.

Treat others how you want them to treat you [8D][8D]:D

The Doctor
19-04-2004, 09:50 AM
Pray tell when did the principals behind this coy ever do a shareholder any good?

Lawso
19-04-2004, 02:14 PM
Who are the principals, Doctor, and what do you know about them? The only name I've heard is David Ware, chief executive. (Obviously I don't have a prospectus)

glennj
19-04-2004, 05:09 PM
I've received a prospectus and they look ok but I can't get an allocation. Forsyth Barr, whom I don't usually deal with, are the lead manager and have dished out everything already. Tried two other brokers that I sometime buy through and they have none of their tiny quoata left . There is no public pool.
Looks like the stags will do ok on this one.

Tinker
19-04-2004, 06:28 PM
I looked too and my perception was an honest float. With a bit more capital I think they will meet a demand from customers. I like the product and think there is room for a win/win in meeting some companies needs for low cost mobile comms.
And yes, sigh, Forsyth Barr would have none of me either.
Í think Teamtalk will have a successful float and wish them luck with their plans to provide an expanded service to companies that can use their products. I think there are many.
Discl: Wish I had some, and no I don't work for them!

Binklebonk
19-04-2004, 08:59 PM
This company has a monopolistic position and a nice dividend yield but what makes me wary is the risk that technological advances will blow them out of the water. What have they got that is long term sustainable and where will they be in 10 years time? Are they just a cash cow to be milked for the next 5 years or so? Keen to hear answers from anyone who has read the prospectus.

Sauce
20-04-2004, 11:21 AM
I have similar concerns regarding technological advances. Especially cellular technology. Telecom dumped their entire mobile radio network to these guys, I would guess that Telecom had decided it didn't fit within their plans for future technologies.

Vodaphone seem to be very activily (and effectively IMO) marketing their cellular business services and new technologies. Based on their success in capturing market share in the personal cellphone market, I would guess (from my very limited perspective) that they will be have some degree of success with their new pursuit against Telecoms market share of business customers.

Could all this business focus put the mobile radio market into vodafones crosshairs?

Sauce
26-08-2004, 02:09 PM
FLLYR: TTK: Full Year to 30/06/2004 $2.622M ($3.091M) -15.2% DIV 9CPS

TRADING RESULT

Operating performance for the year exceeded expectations with a Net Surplus
for the year of $2.62 million, which is 26% ahead of the prospectus forecast.
This reflects stronger than anticipated demand for services in the second
half of the year, including TeamTalk's recently launched finance product,
together with continued tight control of costs. Over the year there was
continued modest growth in both subscriber numbers and revenue per
subscriber.

As signalled to the market with its profit upgrade announcement in May the
company has exceeded its IPO forecasts. The key comparatives for the Group
2004 results are:

IPO Forecast $000; Actual $000

Operating Revenue: 19,560;19,892
EBITDA: 7,974;8,606
Net surplus before tax: 3,534;4,372
Net surplus after tax: 2,086;2,622
Earnings per share (pre goodwill amortisation): 14.6;17.3
Dividends(cps): 15.0;16.5

Great result. Market must have been expecting more. What a fantastic divvie.

Peitro
21-08-2009, 10:07 AM
Stumbled across this quiet little earner, seems to be a good dividend play.

They have maintained good sales growth and have seemed to keep ahead of the technology threat that could easily erode their business.

The recession has not hurt their sales, but will be interesting to see how their margins have held up when the financial s are released.

Peitro
26-08-2009, 03:44 PM
Strong growth in mobile broadband this year. The next couple of years could be very interesting. No sell offers at present though

Silverlight
02-02-2010, 10:53 AM
Current Depth for TTK

1000 2.26 2.3 7951
1789 2.25 2.35 8000
1000 2.25 2.38 2000
1000 2.25
3000 2.25
2000 2.25


From annual report in Sept NTA is 79.5 cps

Annual Dividend is 20 cents for the past 4 years, thats a pretty good div yield., and PE at full year was around 12.


TeamTalk Submits Govt Broadband Response
TeamTalk announced today that together with well known civil contractor Fulton Hogan it has submitted a response to the Government’s Ultra Fast Broadband initiative.

If successful this will see TeamTalk’s wholly owned subsidiary CityLink join forces with Fulton Hogan to build and operate a fibre optic based telecommunications network throughout the Wellington region.

TeamTalk’s Managing Director, David Ware is very excited by the proposition. “We’ve got 15 years experience in providing Wellingtonians with the fastest broadband at the lowest cost. With Government support it means that we will be able to get out there and finish the job. We will be able to provide service in the parts of the region we don’t currently serve” Ware said.

“What really gave us confidence to embark on this project was the overwhelming encouragement and support that we’ve received from Wellingtonians from all walks of life. Be they business people, Council representatives or regular householders they all want to see CityLink get out there and do the business. I think they all realise that the choice facing the Government is whether they create a vibrant competitive market for broadband, or whether they hand Telecom a monopoly for the next 50 years” Ware commented.




Any current holders have thoughts, or more indepth analysis about TTK's direction?

Silverlight
18-02-2010, 02:35 PM
TeamTalk Half Year Profit Up 38%


TeamTalk announced a half year net surplus after tax of $1.98m up 38% on the same period last year. The increase is largely attributable to a substantial reduction in finance costs, including a reversal in the IFRS related revaluations of interest rate hedges. At an operating level revenues for the period were flat at $15.3m versus $15.5m for the same period last year as the group experienced extremely tight trading conditions. Both CityLink and TeamTalk’s mobile radio division experienced unprecedented churn as customers either downsized their businesses or, in some unfortunate instances, went out of business altogether.

What gives us heart for the future however, as it demonstrates the compelling proposition that our businesses offer, is that there was negligible churn to our competitors. This has seen us remain optimistic about the future meaning we have continued to invest for growth. In particular CityLink dedicated substantial resources to the Government’s UFB response and Araneo (our wireless broadband subsidiary) increased staff resources in order to meet the demand that is building in its sales pipeline. These two factors alone resulted in an increase in costs of over $0.3m.

Over the period the group continued to generate strong cashflows. This enabled the group to invest $3.8m in growth initiatives at the same time as reducing net debt by $1.3m and maintaining its historic dividend policy.

waikare
09-06-2011, 05:39 PM
Can anybody comment as to why TTK in the last 4 weeks gone from $2.06 to close at $2.30 today, (thats about 11.5%) on the 31/5/11 it traded at $2.11?????

tim23
09-06-2011, 08:54 PM
The yield is great thats why and history suggests sustainable

waikare
11-06-2011, 08:36 AM
I see no shares were sold yesterday (10th) there is a bit of a gape between buyers ($2.15) and sellers ($2.30). Team Talk have consistently paid a interim and final dividend of $0.10 since Oct 2008. Even at $2.30 they have a gross dividend yield of nearly 12.5%, (NZX) not many others on the NZX are giving this sort of dividend yeild

I brought a small number at $2.11 about 3 weeks a go, and looking a getting some more.

Catalyst
02-09-2011, 11:15 AM
For those looking for a high yielding stock with a bit of growth, TTK looks not too bad.

They've just posted a 25% increase in NPAT and said "over the next three years we expect to grow EBITDA by $0.5 million to $1 million pa, to continue to reduce our overall debt, and as a minimum to maintain our current dividend policy".

PE = $2.16 / ($4.8m NPAT / 23.0m shares) = 10.4x
EV/EBITDA = (23.0m shares x $2.16 + $18.1m net debt) / $12.5m EBITDA = 5.4x
Gross dividend yield = 20c / 216 / 72% = 12.9%

They're cum a 10c dividend payable in a months time. Not sure if there's anything in the 5m cross at $2.00 today?

percy
02-09-2011, 11:26 AM
For those looking for a high yielding stock with a bit of growth, TTK looks not too bad.

They've just posted a 25% increase in NPAT and said "over the next three years we expect to grow EBITDA by $0.5 million to $1 million pa, to continue to reduce our overall debt, and as a minimum to maintain our current dividend policy".

PE = $2.16 / ($4.8m NPAT / 23.0m shares) = 10.4x
EV/EBITDA = (23.0m shares x $2.16 + $18.1m net debt) / $12.5m EBITDA = 5.4x
Gross dividend yield = 20c / 216 / 72% = 12.9%

They're cum a 10c dividend payable in a months time. Not sure if there's anything in the 5m cross at $2.00 today?

Major shareholder selling down.Craigs placed the shares last night with their clients at $2.00 PER SHARE.

Catalyst
02-09-2011, 11:55 AM
Ok, thanks Percy. That may put some short-term pressure on the share price but could create some opportunities over the next couple of weeks or so.

percy
02-09-2011, 12:44 PM
Ok, thanks Percy. That may put some short-term pressure on the share price but could create some opportunities over the next month or so.

I had team talk at issue,have since sold.[and missed the divies] It was my understanding that Active Equities would at sometime sell down. So as you point out I would expect it would only be short term pressure on the SP and may create opportunities.Spent my little bit of spare cash yesterday afternoon buying more CCC after getting excited by chairman's comments, so missed out on Team Talk placement.

percy
02-09-2011, 03:13 PM
Interesting announcement,here on sharetrader.
Go to forum, then Unlisted,then Active equities investment.
Sell down of TTP ,buy back of AEIT,distribution of TTP shares to AEIT shareholders.

bung5
27-01-2012, 08:54 PM
Anyone holding this? solid returns in a growing industry I'm in

Lizard
27-01-2012, 09:01 PM
I had TTK at issue too and also sold pre-GFC around $2.70 I think. Picked a few up again recently, but yet to decide if I will add more. The yield is okay, but debt is higher than I like.

Lizard
23-02-2012, 03:45 PM
Another solid result in line with expectations. I like their announcements - always a smile to read.

Outlook not spectacular, but should be on track.

Nice yield. Debt levels manageable.

waikare
23-02-2012, 06:25 PM
Another solid result in line with expectations. I like their announcements - always a smile to read.

Outlook not spectacular, but should be on track.

Nice yield. Debt levels manageable.

Have to agree with Lizard regarding their yield , since April 2009 each 6 month they have paid a dividend of 10 cents a share

Toulouse - Luzern
23-02-2012, 09:58 PM
If you use Direct Broking Super charts and compare the 3 year SP trajectory of Allied Work Force AWF with TTK then to me AWF looks to have the better track record and dividend yield ...

J_Gold
09-03-2012, 02:08 PM
A good day for TTK. Hopefully more sellers come to the party after it goes ex-div.

bung5
09-03-2012, 02:36 PM
Hi J gold, how come it is a good day?

J_Gold
09-03-2012, 02:58 PM
Edging towards the 240 mark
Reports released


Hi J gold, how come it is a good day?

bung5
09-03-2012, 03:27 PM
Edging towards the 240 mark
Reports released

ah ok, I really want to SP cheaper to buy more. as long as I am getting my dividends I'm happy

waikare
11-03-2012, 09:24 AM
ah ok, I really want to SP cheaper to buy more. as long as I am getting my dividends I'm happy

Even at $2.37 still giving a good return

J_Gold
15-03-2012, 04:00 PM
How about that 60c bid-ask spread earlier in the day. Where art thou sellers

bung5
15-03-2012, 06:15 PM
Yes i saw that there were no sellers earlier in the day and put the sell order in for 305 just to be cheeky

J_Gold
16-03-2012, 10:56 AM
Yes i saw that there were no sellers earlier in the day and put the sell order in for 305 just to be cheeky

hah, thought about doing the same. Don't wanna sell for 300ish though, didn't wanna have my bluff called.
Sweet few more sellers in the game today, decreasing that spread just how we like it.

Bung5 if you dont mind me asking do you participate in TTKs DRP?

bung5
16-03-2012, 04:30 PM
At the moment I'm in the DRP just to build the shares while I have some cash available from the sale of other shares. Probably a bit later on will start taking the dividends.

bung5
31-07-2012, 01:50 PM
Shareprice edging up a higher over the last week or so. Are we expecting a good half yearly report?

tim23
31-07-2012, 05:30 PM
It looks that way, the divvy is stunning even at current price, I met the CEO casually via a mate in March and complained that it needed lifting!

bung5
28-08-2012, 03:00 PM
Another great result profit up 15.9% for the year. 13.8c gross dividend for the half year. Looks like there could be room for an increased dividend next year as well.

tim23
28-08-2012, 05:48 PM
No divvy lift this time, but steady as - should underpin share price.

bung5
18-09-2012, 12:43 PM
When there is a sea of red today it is good to see TTK still going strong. Also a huge dividend next month coming.

bung5
02-11-2012, 12:14 PM
NZX listed company TeamTalk Limited announced today that it has entered into
a conditional sale and purchase agreement to buy 100% of BayCity
Communications Limited. BayCity Communications of Timaru is New Zealand's
leading dedicated rural ISP and telecommunications provider principally
through its Farmside operation.

"At our recent AGM in Wellington I advised shareholders that we were looking
at buying another business. Today's announcement outlines our intention,"
TeamTalk's Managing Director David Ware said.

TeamTalk proposes acquiring 100% of Farmside using cash and shares. The
purchase is conditional on TeamTalk shareholder approval. A special meeting
of TeamTalk shareholders will be held in mid-December with settlement planned
shortly thereafter.

"The purchase is an opportunity to grow both businesses by building on what
each does best. TeamTalk brings its wireless
expertise and investment
capital and Farmside brings its satellite business, ISP know how, a rural
focus and consumer marketing capabilities" David Ware said.

"Both TeamTalk and Farmside are strong niche operators in New Zealand's
competitive telecommunications environment."

The upfront purchase price is $31 million with an earn out based on company
performance over the next two financial years. This earn out could raise the
total price paid to $42.05 million. In the 12 months to June 2012, BayCity
had revenue of $25.4 million and EBITDA of $5.8 million.

"TeamTalk is a progressive but cautious business. We have a strong track
record of success based on providing excellent customer satisfaction and
shareholder value," David Ware said. "I'm confident our shareholders will
see value in this acquisition and we look forward to welcoming the Farmside
staff and customers to TeamTalk. We intend to continue to operate the
business from Timaru and expect that it will be very much busines
s as usual
in all respects."

The Grinch
06-12-2012, 09:55 AM
Am I missing something here? from 2.48 to 2.80 in the last week... and still some upward pressure. Just the lead up to the vote? Anyone attending and if so could you please post your general impressions etc.

Cheers
Grinch

The Grinch
06-12-2012, 12:17 PM
That makes sense with over 60% of their business coming from broadband and the comcoms decision to cut the UBA price to $32.45 per month, effective from Dec. 1, 2014, from the existing $44.98. Thats a 27% reduction of their primary input cost. I also imagine that by the time 2014 rolls around (esp after the merger) far more than 60% of the revenue will come from this area. Would be interesting to see the make up of Farmside though.

I'm a complete newb to this so please feel free to critique - all for free education.

Cheers

tim23
06-12-2012, 05:02 PM
Waiting for results of meeting from 4/12/12 on Farmside, it looked a good deal to me.

The Grinch
11-12-2012, 04:53 PM
Good to see the aquisition goes ahead. Still upward pressure on the shareprice :)

Lizard
28-08-2013, 08:15 PM
There's something that makes me hang on to the last of my TTK, just to ensure I read the announcements. Heck, percy, they've got all kinds of lingo in there that we don't usually see... I wonder if "we should be dangerous" will catch on? :cool:

percy
29-08-2013, 10:55 AM
Absolute gem of an announcement.!!
Loved it. Plain language,and to the point!!
I think it would be "dangerous" to sell your shares>!!!!
lol.

BIRMANBOY
23-10-2013, 09:06 PM
Some good buying to be had here...hasn't been this low for a long time. Don't really see any major change or reason for it but thankful for the opportunity to add some more to the portfolio.

The Grinch
23-10-2013, 11:25 PM
Agree Birmanboy, I thought the days of it being this low were gone. Understand its had a pretty rough year and initial merger teething is sure to be happening but this is a solid company. Wish I had some spare change... damn opportunities they always present themselves all at the same time.

percy
24-10-2013, 05:59 AM
Some good buying to be had here...hasn't been this low for a long time. Don't really see any major change or reason for it but thankful for the opportunity to add some more to the portfolio.

Certainly great buying compared with buying on January 21st this year.Today you get 37% more shares for your money.!! Yeah right.!!
Jan 21st SP was $3.10. Today $2.25. SP has fallen 27.42%.
There appears to be a problem with this company !!! Big problem?

BIRMANBOY
24-10-2013, 08:52 AM
So when was the SP designated as a true measure of a companies worth....LOL Some people see problems with every nuance in a share price...others see opportunities...Completely up to the individual. All I see is an increase in my dividend yield %. Believe what you want.
Certainly great buying compared with buying on January 21st this year.Today you get 37% more shares for your money.!! Yeah right.!!
Jan 21st SP was $3.10. Today $2.25. SP has fallen 27.42%.
There appears to be a problem with this company !!! Big problem?

JayRiggs
24-10-2013, 09:18 AM
I think it went over $3 after the Farmside acquisition was announced and speculation the dividend will increase from the 20c/yr it's been paying the past 7yrs. But when Farmside turned out to be a bit of a flop, share price has come back to earth.

Even the managing director confessed there wasn't going to be much growth in the annual meeting and TTK is just a dividend stock.

So what does all of this mean for you guys – well don't expect any hockey stick growth curve or any massive increase in customer numbers but what you can expect is for us to keep pumping out those dividends in much the same way as we have over the last 10 years – thank you.

I suppose current share price is reflecting the dividend is staying put for the time being.
Still a good stock to hold I reckon if it sticks to 20c/yr dividend, 12% yield at current prices.

percy
24-10-2013, 10:08 AM
So when was the SP designated as a true measure of a companies worth....LOL Some people see problems with every nuance in a share price...others see opportunities...Completely up to the individual. All I see is an increase in my dividend yield %. Believe what you want.

I prefer growing companies,who are more likely to pay increasing dividends.
Dividend growth will then drive the SP.So you end up with capital growth as well as increasing dividends.To focus on one or the other does not appeal to me.

Joshuatree
24-10-2013, 10:27 AM
Like meridian heehee

percy
24-10-2013, 10:47 AM
Like meridian heehee

Yes,exactly.
I expect earnings growth from increasing prices of all forms of energy.
Hopefully we will get the best of all worlds.Huge growing dividends and increase in SP.

Joshuatree
24-10-2013, 11:07 AM
I have NO expectations of that happening and have not invested for that reason but it sure would be a nice bonus. No impediments to a good listing now with the cap irrelevant and Instos scaled back.My broker says it is the first time in his exp that a firm allocation has been scaled !!. So chocks away; hopefully. Just hope the rain keeps falling down that way. MRP has had a very dry spell with the Waikato catchment until recently.

pierre
24-10-2013, 12:29 PM
I suppose current share price is reflecting the dividend is staying put for the time being.
Still a good stock to hold I reckon if it sticks to 20c/yr dividend, 12% yield at current prices.

Sold mine at a loss on Monday and put the $ into PEB. Much better outcome than hanging on for 12% divvie.

JayRiggs
24-10-2013, 05:09 PM
Sold mine at a loss on Monday and put the $ into PEB. Much better outcome than hanging on for 12% divvie.

Well done! Wish I had the time to trade like you trading folks.
I don't hold TTK, but I have TEL, which also has a nice yield :)

couta1
19-12-2013, 04:45 PM
Sold mine at a loss on Monday and put the $ into PEB. Much better outcome than hanging on for 12% divvie.
Sticking with mine,like the company and think they will come back up, they were also hit with that one of telco levy this year,they intend to keep paying the same dividend rate have good people on board and a niche market and would much rather hold these than CNU,straight up and down to earth company

BIRMANBOY
19-12-2013, 07:53 PM
Last seven years has given shareholders 20c per share div (and 18 and 19 prior 2 years) excluding imput credits. At current share price thats 9.3% ......well worth holding for dividends to my mind. Does the job, gets on with the business...no fuss no bother.

couta1
19-12-2013, 08:20 PM
Birmanboy,Are you still holding your CNU shares or have you off loaded all or some of them?

couta1
19-12-2013, 08:20 PM
Birmanboy,Are you still holding your CNU shares or have you off loaded all or some of them?

BIRMANBOY
19-12-2013, 08:51 PM
This is TeamTalk thread, not CNU. Use the PM facility if you want to talk dirty.;)
Birmanboy,Are you still holding your CNU shares or have you off loaded all or some of them?

BIRMANBOY
20-12-2013, 04:31 PM
REL: 1348 HRS TeamTalk Limited





GENERAL: TTK: Embargo on Shares Issued for Farmside Acquisition Ends





18 December 2013





Embargo on Shares Issued for Farmside Acquisition Ends





As part of the consideration for the December 2012 purchase of 100% of the


issued capital of BayCity Communications Limited TeamTalk Limited issued


4,547,177 ordinary shares.





Pursuant to the Share Sale Agreement the vendors agreed that the shares they


received would be embargoed for a period of 12 months from settlement.





Settlement for the acquisition was 17 December 2012 so accordingly the


embargo on the sale of those shares by the vendors is now at an end



So one would think there might be some weakness in the SP ahead ...surely some of those holders will try and redeem. I see there are 201,000 wanting to be sold at 2.30 (3 holders) with 2.11 being an offer at moment. Good opportunity to buy if you like this company.

BIRMANBOY
22-01-2014, 04:39 PM
Yes I have it in my portfolio..one of my better performing divvie producers. Weakness in share price is a bit difficult to pin down. Recently embargo has been lifted on sale of 4.4 million shares released in Farmside purchase and these appear to have started to come on market. (block of 220,000) . TTK is not a highly liquid stock so my guess is that the SP is going to be depressed whilst these shares are hanging around. The good thing is they appear to be holding for 2.30. if "they" decide to dump some of them then SP could tumble. I understand the value ascribed to them in the FArmside purchase was 2.60 odd. Other sellers have been going in and selling at 2.11 to 2.20 odd. Mostly 3,4, 5000 parcels though. My understanding is that David Ware predicted the second half of the year they were going to be "dangerous". Personally I have been accumulating this when SP is in the dips. Its had a very good history on dividends and I don't believe there is any underlying cause for concern so the SP fluctuations are a mystery to me.
Do you follow this stock Birmanboy? I owned it once but sold early last year. Looked back in on it today and see the share price has declined nearly 33% since.

What's the story?

I understand the Farmside acquisition has had some (short term?) downside effect on the SP, and maybe the forecasted (earlier than expected) increase to the OCR is having a bit of a toll. But there are obviously other factors that are in effect. Is the fear that increasing competition will encroach on TTKs revenue streams becoming reality or something? Is the mobile radio revenue stream at risk with changing technologies?

The near 10% divie yield is looking more and more tasty these days, although if the SP continues to free fall then the divie will mean nothing... Need to do my own research but any insight would be much appreciated from all.

Cheers

couta1
22-01-2014, 05:45 PM
This is my next worse performing stock at the moment excluding after Dil having purchased at $2.80 but that's still a 7% divvy so not too worried I like these guys and think things will improve during second half of year,don't forget also they were hit hard last year with a half mill telco levy which won't happen this year,probably holding too many of them

BIRMANBOY
27-01-2014, 02:32 PM
The big block of 200,000 for sale at 2.30 seems to have gone away...I've been buying in the dips.

Joshuatree
26-02-2014, 04:08 PM
David Ware said they would be "dangerous" but unfort the next div after this 10c will be halved to 5c to fund growth. Profit is up 27% rev 77%.

couta1
26-02-2014, 05:49 PM
David Ware said they would be "dangerous" but unfort the next div after this 10c will be halved to 5c to fund growth. Profit is up 27% rev 77%.
JT I think the divvy is going down to 7.5 from 10c from what I read ? Are you holding?

BlackPeter
27-02-2014, 07:43 AM
somewhat disappointing results - reporting speed bumps on City Link and Mobile Radio projects & restructuring going slower than planned. The reduced dividend policy seems to be more related to not earning enough to afford the full 20 cts / share they paid so far, than the desire to fund growth. Last years earnings (2013FY) was 14 cts per share, this years earnings (based on the first 6 months) seems to hover around 15 cts per share, unless they have strong growth in the second half. Paying the full lot (15 cts per share) as dividend will not help to support growth, but at least it will reduce future bleeding.

discl: (still?) holding

Joshuatree
27-02-2014, 08:05 AM
Cheers BP.Yes re " not earning enough to afford the full 20cents" sounds more accurate than being "dangerous":). Will keep it on watch list but it now moves lower down below the Camry GL :)

bung5
28-02-2014, 08:41 AM
somewhat disappointing results - reporting speed bumps on City Link and Mobile Radio projects & restructuring going slower than planned. The reduced dividend policy seems to be more related to not earning enough to afford the full 20 cts / share they paid so far, than the desire to fund growth. Last years earnings (2013FY) was 14 cts per share, this years earnings (based on the first 6 months) seems to hover around 15 cts per share, unless they have strong growth in the second half. Paying the full lot (15 cts per share) as dividend will not help to support growth, but at least it will reduce future bleeding.

discl: (still?) holding

Spot on there. The one themes in some of the quarterly, half and full year results were they would .. "keep pumping out those dividends in much the same way as we have over the last 10 years"

Looking at the results their EPS has dropped significantly. I don't think many people will fall for Profit is up 27% rev 77% when earnings per share has dropped well below the previous dividend payout.Its only up because they acquired farm-side which were not in their financial results the last year. Now even paying 15c per share is quite tight.

TTK is a good company , will be looking to re enter once I can see growth is back on track.

BlackPeter
07-04-2014, 05:42 PM
Joe Pope (director and chair) is going on a (share-) buying spree - must be a sign he thinks they are now undervalued as well:

TTK: Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests

Name of director or officer of public issuer: CHARLES JONATHAN POPE
Name of public issuer: TEAMTALK LIMITED
Position held in public issuer: CHAIRMAN

Number, class, and type of securities: 1 40,000 ORDINDARY SHARES

C Nature of relevant interest and name of registered holder
Nature of relevant interest in those securities: 2 Beneficial interest as
the registered holder
Name of registered holder of those securities 3 CHARLES JONATHAN POPE
Date of acquisition: 4 4-Apr-14
Consideration paid for acquisition: 5 $78,762.69

BlackPeter
09-04-2014, 01:50 PM
Great news for TeamTalk: They just announced that they won a quite significant contract in bringing broadband (and cellular) to the Chathams - this should be an outstanding opportunity for them to demonstrate their capability to connect remote places!

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/249301

Joshuatree
09-04-2014, 02:35 PM
Population re 640 in 2011

BIRMANBOY
09-04-2014, 03:37 PM
and dropping.....2013 is 600. Government funding of 2.48 million. That's $4133 each for every man woman and child. I don't know...is it good value for money or not? Admirable goal to enable broadband access for schools and residents...but is the prioritization right? No-one else but Team Talk would be interested....looking for the spots and niches that others have missed (or don't want). Anyway good publicity for them and all good that they are actively pursuing opportunities.


Chatham Islands Territory







597000 Chatham Islands

717

609

600




625200 Oceanic-Chatham Islands

-

-

-



Total Chatham Islands Territory

720

612

600





Population re 640 in 2011

Joshuatree
09-04-2014, 04:02 PM
And 10,000 kg of equipment means 16.666kg per person!

BIRMANBOY
09-04-2014, 04:11 PM
They big fellas on the Chathams...they need big batteries and their own individual portable cell phone towers.
And 10,000 kg of equipment means 16.666kg per person!

Joshuatree
09-04-2014, 04:43 PM
"own individual cell phone towers" perched on their heads like an umbrella hat hence the "mobile". Custom made weka finder as well as a Crayfisher spotter and Imposter detectors:). Maybe it will give Teamtalk exp to do many other Island communities like Raoul Island.

BIRMANBOY
09-04-2014, 07:26 PM
Exactly..should boost the island economy ten fold....there will be surges in production of weka wedges, crayfish cream pies and Chateau Mouton bird sparkling wine. They may even make enough to pay the monthly broadband bill. You got me on the imposters though. Chathams could be the new Waiheke. I have a decent chunk in Team Talk so am hoping for the best regardless. Price has been declining for a while but have a good feeling that it will climb back soon. Seem to be smart operators.
"own individual cell phone towers" perched on their heads like an umbrella hat hence the "mobile". Custom made weka finder as well as a Crayfisher spotter and Imposter detectors:). Maybe it will give Teamtalk exp to do many other Island communities like Raoul Island.

BlackPeter
10-04-2014, 08:55 AM
Population re 640 in 2011

True - and playing to TeamTalks strenghts - being the best little communication provider. I don't think they ever contemplated to take the big boys heads on in the urban areas.

If you look at New Zealand's population distribution (from memory - give or take a couple of percent): roughly 90% of the people live in the 10% of the country with reasonable communication services (i.e. broadband and cellphone connections). The remaining 10% live in the 90% of the land which has still quite pathetic service. The Chathams are part of these 90% in need for improvement. The funny thing is as well that much (might be most, but not sure) of the New Zealand revenue is originating from the 90% of the land which have poor communication connections (farming, tourism, mining). For sure, there must be a business case for a company specialising itself in connecting the "cash cows" of the land to the rest of the world. The Chathams are just the beginning :cool:

discl: holding

couta1
11-04-2014, 11:55 AM
Not just tech stocks suffering,this stock is equal with Diligent as my worst paper loss company at 40% down from purchase price currently,at least it pays a dividend albeit a reduced one in the future:scared:

BlackPeter
12-04-2014, 10:00 AM
Not just tech stocks suffering,this stock is equal with Diligent as my worst paper loss company at 40% down from purchase price currently,at least it pays a dividend albeit a reduced one in the future:scared:

as always timing is everything ... but I bought in too early as well (though not that early ... just 19% down so far - blame my lack of TA skills - it looked at that stage all upwards from 2.15). Anyway - still feels like a good company with a solid business proposition in a reasonably sized niche of the market. Holding without too many concerns ...

BIRMANBOY
12-04-2014, 10:55 AM
If you look at 10 year chart SP has gone as low as 1.80 and as high as 2.80 ...(if you take out present weakness and exclude the 'out of character" surge from late 2012 to late 2013) The point at which the price seems most comfortable is in the 2.10 to 2.20 range. My opinion is obviously subjective but I see this current weakness as good buying opportunity and as much as "averaging down" is seen by some as a cardinal sin and evidential proof of a lack of true knowledge, I have been buying as and when I can. The drop in dividend may be causing some weakness because this stock has always "sold itself" on its consistent dividends, however its still a good return on money as I see it. Run by experienced and capable people and this should ensure some resurrection soon.
as always timing is everything ... but I bought in too early as well (though not that early ... just 19% down so far - blame my lack of TA skills - it looked at that stage all upwards from 2.15). Anyway - still feels like a good company with a solid business proposition in a reasonably sized niche of the market. Holding without too many concerns ...

BlackPeter
19-05-2014, 09:15 AM
Looking at charts and depth: Quite consistent downtrend with low volume of bidders. Hitting the bottom of the Bollinger band, but not enough volume for a likely bounce back quite yet. Might shape into another down wave before the share price starts to stabilize.

On the other hand - looking at fundamentals this stock starts to look quite attractive: Expected P/E: 11.2, long term P/E: 8.9 and (though lower than previously) quite healthy dividends.

Haven't yet figured out whether the recent Chorus announcement makes a difference for TTK ... in a way they are competing (though on a smaller scale). However a healthy backbone network provider is probably good for everybody in the industry.

Discl: holding and thinking about topping up, but probably waiting for the downtrend to break (though there is unlikely to be lots of volume around the bottom ...). DYOR;

Thoughts?

bung5
19-05-2014, 02:11 PM
$1.50 buy ?

BlackPeter
19-05-2014, 02:25 PM
$1.50 buy ?

Not sure I'd expect them to drop that far, unless there is something the market does not know yet ...

BIRMANBOY
19-05-2014, 02:48 PM
The sellers don't seem very committed to holding their price...so its definitely a buyers market at the moment. Not a lot of good news (or any news) so SP trickling down. Depth weakness in buyers means its a slippery slope. Dividend % is great however even at the reduced 15 cents.
Not sure I'd expect them to drop that far, unless there is something the market does not know yet ...

bung5
19-05-2014, 03:43 PM
The sellers don't seem very committed to holding their price...so its definitely a buyers market at the moment. Not a lot of good news (or any news) so SP trickling down. Depth weakness in buyers means its a slippery slope. Dividend % is great however even at the reduced 15 cents.

I'm sure last time I checked one of their half yearly reports their EPS was lower than the dividend per share ....even at 15cps divvy
farmside acquisition was a disaster

BlackPeter
28-05-2014, 12:44 PM
$1.50 buy ?

One of the directors must have seen your post - and started buying already at $1.65 ...;)

Details of director or officer
Name of director or officer of public issuer: ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
Name of public issuer: TEAMTALK LIMITED
Position held in public issuer: DIRECTOR

B Securities in public issuer or related body corporate to which this
disclosure relates
Number, class, and type of securities: 10,000 ORDINARY SHARES

I guess 10k shares is not much, but still a positive sign.

BIRMANBOY
28-05-2014, 01:15 PM
Where's the bottom? Whilst there are still sellers meeting the buy prices its still dropping. Waiting..waiting....and waiting a bit more.
One of the directors must have seen your post - and started buying already at $1.65 ...;)

Details of director or officer
Name of director or officer of public issuer: ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
Name of public issuer: TEAMTALK LIMITED
Position held in public issuer: DIRECTOR

B Securities in public issuer or related body corporate to which this
disclosure relates
Number, class, and type of securities: 10,000 ORDINARY SHARES

I guess 10k shares is not much, but still a positive sign.

couta1
28-05-2014, 01:23 PM
Where's the bottom? Whilst there are still sellers meeting the buy prices its still dropping. Waiting..waiting....and waiting a bit more.
Have been watching these fickle sellers for a while now offering no resistance to the buyers hope they are all selling at a loss(Which I'm sure they are at these prices) then they can all kick themselves in the backside when the price heads back deep into the $2 range in due course:cool:

Joshuatree
28-05-2014, 02:20 PM
Big downtrend intact with S/P well under 50 and 200MDA. Will keep watching for a cross above MDA which will signal a BUY

BIRMANBOY
28-05-2014, 02:56 PM
JT...that's just way too technical for me;) When the nervous sellers have been scared out and the ratio of buyers to sellers changes from 1 to 10 o a more even amount ...then it may well be the turn...but could be months? I have previously being buying as it slid but this time am waiting for a more definitive upturn or the next dividend whichever comes first.
Big downtrend intact with S/P well under 50 and 200MDA. Will keep watching for a cross above MDA which will signal a BUY

Joshuatree
28-05-2014, 03:06 PM
:)Hey I'm just imprinting my new knowledge(thanks KW) so i don't forget it too quickly. Like your ratio/vol indicaters too BB.

waikare
28-05-2014, 04:11 PM
A director buying share in his / her own company can only be a positive thing.

I brought a few last week ($1.70), am considering a few more around this range.



One of the directors must have seen your post - and started buying already at $1.65 ...;)

Details of director or officer
Name of director or officer of public issuer: ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
Name of public issuer: TEAMTALK LIMITED
Position held in public issuer: DIRECTOR

B Securities in public issuer or related body corporate to which this
disclosure relates
Number, class, and type of securities: 10,000 ORDINARY SHARES

I guess 10k shares is not much, but still a positive sign.

percy
28-05-2014, 04:29 PM
A director buying share in his / her own company can only be a positive thing.

I brought a few last week ($1.70), am considering a few more around this range.

Hold fire.!!
Cheaper next week?????!!
Well the SP has fallen 41.37% in the past year,and the trend is confirmed as being downward.

The Grinch
28-05-2014, 07:13 PM
EPS was in the high 14cps mark I believe. They had a few one off costs though and the wobbly integration of the two companies. The fact the market is now valuing this company at almost the same price as before the merger is just crazy and I'm confident that once all the old farmside owners have dumped all their shares on the market it will start to trend up in a more sensible fashion.

Disc: Don't trust me I've put most of my eggs into PEB and DIL both of which are in a bit of a lull :(

BIRMANBOY
28-05-2014, 08:26 PM
I keep buying and SP keeps going down....maybe if I stop it will go back up?:eek2: Trouble is of course its harder to bring your average price down the more shares you buy. Doesn't matter that much however since I console myself with the dividends. At these prices the projected 15 cents per year is a very, very nice little earner.

BIRMANBOY
29-05-2014, 04:27 PM
Now its at 1.61 buy and continues to creep down. I feel sorry for the seller with 92,240 to sell at 1.70.... they keep getting pushed down the sellers list by other more nervous sellers. What I cannot fathom is buyers not lowering the buy offers...the sellers keep meeting them so why would you not look for a lower entry? Go figure huh.

couta1
29-05-2014, 04:41 PM
Now its at 1.61 buy and continues to creep down. I feel sorry for the seller with 92,240 to sell at 1.70.... they keep getting pushed down the sellers list by other more nervous sellers. What I cannot fathom is buyers not lowering the buy offers...the sellers keep meeting them so why would you not look for a lower entry? Go figure huh.
Watching this share is like watching that dumb and dumber movie but I think those guys showed a lot more intelligence than the current sellers with TTK shares, can't understand why that big seller hasn't split his order up he's only sold 7k odd during the last few weeks, the minnows don't want to sit behind him so he's playing a part in driving the price down as he was top seller on the depth chart for a few days a while back:cool:

dagdaniel1
29-05-2014, 04:54 PM
Sry, probably a noob question, but how do you see buy and sell orders?

Joshuatree
29-05-2014, 04:59 PM
Ask your broker/advisor for a email showing it or Join Direct Broking , ASB trading securities etc, then you can look at the live mkt price and depth.NZX is 20 min delay re prices and no mkt depth..

BlackPeter
29-05-2014, 05:06 PM
Sry, probably a noob question, but how do you see buy and sell orders?

If you are with ANZ Securities (used to be Direct Broking) and if you completed with them during the last 3 months a buy or sell order, than they offer you the option to look at the trading depth of each stock. Easy.

I suspect that other brokers offer a similar service, but don't know about them. Will likely cost either money, or you need to be an active customer (as with ANZ), given that NZX is asking for money to provide this information to the brokers.

dagdaniel1
29-05-2014, 05:10 PM
Ok, thanks. Just sent in application to Direct Brokering, anyone know how long it takes?

BlackPeter
29-05-2014, 05:19 PM
Ok, thanks. Just sent in application to Direct Brokering, anyone know how long it takes?

Must be now a decade or so ago that I joined them. At that stage it went through pretty fast (couple of days plus snail mail). No idea though, what the process is these days.

Fisherking
29-05-2014, 05:27 PM
Ok, thanks. Just sent in application to Direct Brokering, anyone know how long it takes?

Took a couple of weeks for mine to go through, mostly because of the absurd amount of information that needed to be collected on my part.

dagdaniel1
29-05-2014, 05:52 PM
ok, thanks. Not much info for me, so hopefully won't take too long.

BlackPeter
11-06-2014, 10:21 AM
another director buying ... looks like they feel the shares are good value at current:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/251418

percy
11-06-2014, 11:35 AM
Be careful.
Next they will be after increased director's fees to cover their share losses.!!
Thought their chart looked like PPL's.Was wrong.TTK are only down 32% in the past year compared with PPL's 60.91%.!!!!

samdaman
11-06-2014, 11:59 AM
I'd be waiting for some higher highs on this one before getting in. A break of the 1.70 resistance would be good but I'm also waiting to see if it'll go lower to sweeten up the deal from an FA point of view. Watching this one like a hawk.

couta1
11-06-2014, 05:33 PM
I'd be waiting for some higher highs on this one before getting in. A break of the 1.70 resistance would be good but I'm also waiting to see if it'll go lower to sweeten up the deal from an FA point of view. Watching this one like a hawk.
Why wait? Its a sweet deal anyway at these prices, many of us are holding at prices in the high $2s and not selling so what's 10c here or there unless your trading the stock:cool:

percy
11-06-2014, 05:57 PM
Why wait? Its a sweet deal anyway at these prices, many of us are holding at prices in the high $2s and not selling so what's 10c here or there unless your trading the stock:cool:

Yeah right!!!
I am totally at a loss to comment!!!?????????????????? lol.

Joshuatree
11-06-2014, 06:14 PM
"Im a believer" by the monkees lol

percy
11-06-2014, 06:18 PM
"We are on the road to nowhere",Talking Heads.

samdaman
11-06-2014, 06:24 PM
Why wait? Its a sweet deal anyway at these prices, many of us are holding at prices in the high $2s and not selling so what's 10c here or there unless your trading the stock:cool:

Well I still think theres room to drop with this stock. and fundamentally your returns are going to be much better at a lower price. I reckon you're looking circa 12% returns with it getting 13+ at the 1.60 and below level. Of course it's all predictions (conservative on my behalf) but I'd be happier with a high return if all I had to do was wait for it. Which I think has the possibility of happening.

The other scenario I see playing out is it breaks the 1.70 barrier and continues on upwards. Then thats a new scenario I'd have to think about and decide whether I want to be in or out for that journey.

Joshuatree
11-06-2014, 06:25 PM
lol Little Creatures Great album saw them live at auckland town hall. Tina frantz broke a string on her bass guitar and changed it mid song; late 70's ? all dressed in black i was in the rearguard of the phalanx that rushed to the front with my canon film camera.

nextbigthing
11-06-2014, 06:29 PM
Sorry guys, times have moved on....


"Im a believer" by the monkees lol

These days people are Beliebers


"We are on the road to nowhere",Talking Heads.

David Bryne now sings vocals for house music, ironically describing some peoples attitudes towards DYOR. See below.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qB_I1YBAozE

Joshuatree
19-06-2014, 07:31 PM
Hey BB I'm curious how have you fared with team talk ,whats your average buy price and yield. Am talking just at this moment in time which isn't great current price wise and div currently weaker too. I know its along term play for you prob.

percy
19-06-2014, 08:00 PM
Hey BB I'm curious how have you fared with team talk ,whats your average buy price and yield. Am talking just at this moment in time which isn't great current price wise and div currently weaker too. I know its along term play for you prob.

Be interesting as Yahoo charts tell us;10years -24.44%,5 years -15%,2 years -27.66%,1 year-32.81%.??????

BIRMANBOY
19-06-2014, 08:22 PM
My average buy in is 2.02 which I am looking to lower by buying in again when the present down trend appears to have reversed. In hindsight I should have been more patient but I was tempted by the dividends. So for both 2012 and 2013 my gross div yield was 11.95% and this year 2014 with reduced dividend it will be 9.98%. Obviously if I lower my average buy in before the next dividend the yield will increase somewhat but at the moment with present situation its 9.98%. Yes still a strong return but could have been a bit better Long term play it is so I'm not overly concerned about SP. The plus side is that it provides opportunities to lower avg hold price.
Hey BB I'm curious how have you fared with team talk ,whats your average buy price and yield. Am talking just at this moment in time which isn't great current price wise and div currently weaker too. I know its along term play for you prob.

BIRMANBOY
15-07-2014, 01:03 PM
Still dropping.....now to 1.56 ..no support.so will probably keep going. Still waiting for some sign of a floor. Waiting for God-oh and no-one in sight.

percy
15-07-2014, 01:09 PM
Still dropping.....now to 1.56 ..no support.so will probably keep going. Still waiting for some sign of a floor. Waiting for God-oh and no-one in sight.

Too overcome to say much other than:"No surprises there"!!!!!

couta1
15-07-2014, 01:18 PM
Still dropping.....now to 1.56 ..no support.so will probably keep going. Still waiting for some sign of a floor. Waiting for God-oh and no-one in sight.
Be consoled at least we get a divvy from this one unlike many others that have fallen by the same amount:cool: PS-Will probably end up selling up for a loss in a few years time as shes a very long road indeed back to my buy price of $2.80 but you never know she has been to $3.20 in the past.

Hoop
15-07-2014, 07:34 PM
Old Chinese saying.....Catchee falling knife..very very hard to cross fingers and hope...

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/kaavio.Webhost/charts/big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=NZ%3attk&uf=0&type=64&size=4&sid=1730565&style=320&freq=1&entitlementtoken=0c33378313484ba9b46b8e24ded87dd6&time=8&rand=1277911760&compidx=aaaaa%3a0&ma=5&maval=50%20200&lf=1&lf2=8&lf3=1024&height=981&width=1045&mocktick=1

BIRMANBOY
16-07-2014, 09:07 AM
Here is another chart...for the bigger picture and the less shortsighted:p
TeamTalk Limited Ordinary Shares



NZX (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/default.htm)

TTK (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/stockquote/nzx/ttk.htm)

Summary (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/stockquote/nzx/ttk.htm)
|
Chart (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/ttk/chart.htm)
|
News (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/ttk/news.htm)
|
Announcements (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/ttk/announcement.htm)
|
History (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/ttk/history.htm)
|
More info.. (http://www.findata.co.nz/markets/nzx/ttk/statistics.htm)







Overlay

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Price Envelope


Indicators

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MACD
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Money Flow Index
Rate of Change
Relative Strength Index
Slow Stochastic
Williams %R


Settings

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MA3:




http://chart.findata.co.nz/?e=NZX&s=TTK&d=0&n=7300&i=MACD-&ma=5-20-&mat=SMA-SMA-&b=BB&w=940&h=480

winner69
16-07-2014, 09:12 AM
Nice - Pretty healthy looking chart Birman

BIRMANBOY
16-07-2014, 09:17 AM
Hah...not so sure about "healthy" but it does tell a different story for those of an inquisitive nature does it not?
Nice - Pretty healthy looking chart Birman

Hoop
16-07-2014, 11:33 AM
I concede..... your chart is more scary than mine... Birman
:)Hoop

winner69
16-07-2014, 11:59 AM
I concede..... your chart is more scary than mine... Birman
:)Hoop

You concede too easily mate

For 5 years doesn't look to bad

Current drop is just a bit of a (don't really know what to put in here) but I think aberration was the word I was looking for

percy
16-07-2014, 12:35 PM
You concede too easily mate

For 5 years doesn't look to bad

Current drop is just a bit of a (don't really know what to put in here) but I think aberration was the word I was looking for

Aberration is not the right word for something that looks terminal.
The phrase "leap of the Lemmings" may be more appropriate!

winner69
16-07-2014, 12:56 PM
Aberration is not the right word for something that looks terminal.
The phrase "leap of the Lemmings" may be more appropriate!

A lot of charts look the same lately

A lot remind me of the profiles they put up for the stages of the Tour de France

Bobcat.
16-07-2014, 01:15 PM
Directors have been buying these past couple of months and there must be some substance to their confidence in this stock.

ANTHONY JOHANNES BORREN
ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
CHARLES JONATHAN POPE

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3588048
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3621683
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3629537

Managing Director David Ware and Finance Director Geoff Davis have not yet been buying.

Still, I would say that with a divi yield of 13% (20cps), DMI divergence, RSI <20 and decent market credibility that this stock is now a Buy.

Discl: I'm now bidding at its psychological support price of 150c.

Longhaul
16-07-2014, 01:33 PM
Still, I would say that with a divi yield of 13% (20cps), DMI divergence, RSI <20 and decent market credibility that this stock is now a Buy.

Just learning here BC, but I would have thought the DMI is showing the downtrend momentum is strong?

winner69
16-07-2014, 02:02 PM
Directors have been buying these past couple of months and there must be some substance to their confidence in this stock.

ANTHONY JOHANNES BORREN
ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
CHARLES JONATHAN POPE

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3588048
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3621683
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3629537

Managing Director David Ware and Finance Director Geoff Davis have not yet been buying.

Still, I would say that with a divi yield of 13% (20cps), DMI divergence, RSI <20 and decent market credibility that this stock is now a Buy.

Discl: I'm now bidding at its psychological support price of 150c.

They say next years divie will be reduced to 15 cents

So even at 150 still pretty good

percy
16-07-2014, 02:16 PM
Maybe prudent to wait until the sp is 15cents,then the divie would be 100%.???

Tony Two Gloves
16-07-2014, 02:47 PM
This has been on my radar for a while.....thinking now might be the time to jump in....surely it can't go below $1.50??

Toasty
16-07-2014, 02:53 PM
This has been on my radar for a while.....thinking now might be the time to jump in....surely it can't go below $1.50??

If I had a $1.50 for every time I thought that I would have $15. Although that would be dropping because I would have invested it on the NZX.

BIRMANBOY
16-07-2014, 02:54 PM
You been watching "Flying High" again? Of course it can.... and don't call me Shirley.
This has been on my radar for a while.....thinking now might be the time to jump in....surely it can't go below $1.50??

Tony Two Gloves
16-07-2014, 02:58 PM
Sorry Shirley! So it does look like a game of Limbo with "How low can she go" but if it does go under $1.50 would this trigger a fresh bout of selling?

BIRMANBOY
16-07-2014, 03:00 PM
Could do...or a fresh bout of vomiting!...Keep em coming.
Sorry Shirley! So it does look like a game of Limbo with "How low can she go" but if it does go under $1.50 would this trigger a fresh bout of selling?

BIRMANBOY
16-07-2014, 03:10 PM
Seriously..if you look back at various posts on this thread...you'll probably come to the conclusion that no-one has the foggiest:p. That's the great thing about the Shear market...sometimes you get your wool fleeced and other times you're the one doing the fleecing. Its the long game that's important .....if you buy now and dividends are ongoing you're good to go...if you wait could go further down...or not.
Sorry Shirley! So it does look like a game of Limbo with "How low can she go" but if it does go under $1.50 would this trigger a fresh bout of selling?

Hoop
16-07-2014, 08:14 PM
Directors have been buying these past couple of months and there must be some substance to their confidence in this stock.

ANTHONY JOHANNES BORREN
ROGER MORRISON SOWRY
CHARLES JONATHAN POPE

https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3588048
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3621683
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/DirectTrade/dynamic/announcement.aspx?id=3629537

Managing Director David Ware and Finance Director Geoff Davis have not yet been buying.

Still, I would say that with a divi yield of 13% (20cps), DMI divergence, RSI <20 and decent market credibility that this stock is now a Buy.

Discl: I'm now bidding at its psychological support price of 150c.


Just learning here BC, but I would have thought the DMI is showing the downtrend momentum is strong?

You are correct Longhaul..
BC has investor illusionment..we all get it from time to time..:) he really wants to buy into TTK at 150 but needs to validate reasons in his mind to support this buy in.

Psychological supports????...TTK price of $2.00 was a minor support area..it did not hold and broke..the psychological support price of $1.50 ??? there is no physical tangible support here only a mental intangible one...To look for intangible answers, you constantly have to look at the depth... As of tonight (at close) there is slight support at both 150 and 148...however remember depth is a very fluid support & resistance variable and can change these days within a nanosecond...

For any one with TA doubts ...At this moment in time it has NO buy signals either at the short,medium or long term....For the very short term there's not enough trading data ..


From IPO in 2004 Up until 2012.. TTK role on the Stock Exchange was seen as a mostly trendless Dividend Stock (dividends around 10%)...
With hindsight,, 2013 onwards there has be no valid reasoning to buy this stock...and to make things more unpredictable the technical mould was broken this year when it fell below 190 around April fools day ....this was a record low so that tells you the 190 primary support broke (WARNING SIGN???) and since then the shareprice has kept falling within a Technical Vacuum where there are no supports at all.........so... where TTK finally bottoms out is any ones guess...

Joshuatree
16-07-2014, 08:29 PM
Had an update in june last year and FY results in august. So not long to go till ,bottoms up....or down.

Hoop can we clone you ; every home should have a w :Dhoop.

A bit ominous no update in june this year mmmmh or it may mean same/same

Hoop
16-07-2014, 08:43 PM
Had an update in june last year and FY results in august. So not long to go till ,bottoms up....or down.

Hoop can we clone you ; every home should have a w :Dhoop.

Clone away........A possible fundamental support at 150???...historic div av of 10% and Winners Div prediction of 15c = 150c Price as a fair value for TTK for now......whoopie

winner69
16-07-2014, 08:58 PM
DEATH CROSS (50/200) at 270 was a good time to get out of the exciting ride up over the last year

Hoop
16-07-2014, 09:39 PM
DEATH CROSS (50/200) at 270 was a good time to get out of the exciting ride up over the last year

Hmmm..didn't see that..it was hidden under my Bollinger Band lines
yeah and the following rally from 2.50 to 2.75 had a sucker look about it when it failed to push on past its EMA200 line...It gave investors a 5 week warning to get out...that's really generous timewise...eh Winner

Bobcat.
16-07-2014, 11:21 PM
At this moment in time it has NO buy signals either at the short,medium or long term....

Directors buying is for my mind a buy signal. Improving P/E and %yield is another. It's also not a bad defensive stock (more appealing to me right now than a lot of low revenue 'growth' stocks that are currently being promoted on ST).

From what I see, this stock's price is not far off recovering...and because three directors agree well enough to put their own money behind it, I'm sufficiently confident to buy a small parcel. The rest I'll purchase on the way up...once an upward trend-line has been established. The more conservative investor (Hoop included) may prefer to wait - go right ahead (or rather, 'get in behind'). Timing is as much an art as it is a science.

BC

couta1
17-07-2014, 08:17 AM
Hmmm..didn't see that..it was hidden under my Bollinger Band lines
yeah and the following rally from 2.50 to 2.75 had a sucker look about it when it failed to push on past its EMA200 line...It gave investors a 5 week warning to get out...that's really generous timewise...eh Winner
They say knowledge is power well back then I had no TA nouce(Just a plain old fundamental guy) so stuck with my $2.80 buy in but quoting Buffet-If your not comfortable holding a stock for 10 years then don't hold it for 10 minutes and who knows what the price will be in a few years from now:cool:

BIRMANBOY
17-07-2014, 08:43 AM
Posters intent on rehashing/examining long past opportunities and "should haves" or "shouldn't haves" are just wasting time in my opinion. The usual rationale given is it informs us as to what to expect/predict will happen in the future. Recurring patterns blah..blah. The everlasting search for the holy grail of investing is within my grasp.....yeh right! For every chart there are differing interpretations, and for every situation different dynamics so success is no more assured than any other investing theory. I understand the desire to harness and arrange the facts but the inherent flaw is the interpretation and more importantly the prediction of where and how it will pan out. However good luck to all who sail in that doomed ship:D. Meanwhile I'll be collecting my dividends and standing on the side-lines in awe of the Gurus who know when they should have done something....three months after it occurred. We all need to treat the Share market for what it is.... a bucking or is that a (f) bronco that is capable of throwing us off at any moment. Yippee yi oooo.

Bobcat.
17-07-2014, 09:11 AM
I'm in, having just bought a small parcel at 152c. There's good volume on bid down to 146c (85k, which is higher than any day's volume going back over a year) but I'd be very surprised if the price drops that far. If so, I have a 5% stop loss that kicks in at 145c.

Onward and upward.

BC

Edit: Already $54k traded and the market's only been open for 40mins! Large volume frequently indicates a momentum pivot.

couta1
17-07-2014, 09:39 AM
Okay folks which horse will be the first to hit a 50% paper loss on my portfolio I've got Ttk on 45.5%, Peb on 44.5%, SLI on 44.4% and Dil on 42% oh and coming up the rear is Xro on 38.8% I'm kinda leaning toward SLi cause I think there's more dumbarse sellers betting on that horse,you gotta laugh or you'd be pretty miserable aye:eek2:

Joshuatree
17-07-2014, 09:41 AM
BB one thing i have learnt re charting is that its a useful tool for timing in and out of stocks IN ADDITION to Fundamental Analysis. You can save money with this timing aid. I have no int in going in deep T/A wise but respect folks like Hoop and BC sharing what they have thats the share trader Community working well for all. You can hold till it folds(sorry being kenny Rogers couldnt resist) and take the divs with you, average in average out, get right out with the divs, climb back in for more. Diff Strokes i agree , micro manage or Dig over the garden.Everything in its place and a palace for everything:)

BIRMANBOY
17-07-2014, 10:33 AM
That would be trading JT...the IRD likes traders. I'm a long termer not a trader. I believe in everybody doing what they believe in and respect those that follow their dream. Second guessing and retrospective analysis however is not particularly productive in my opinion...what I would be impressed by is someone who could tell me what's happening tomorrow or next week or next year and FA, TA and any other combination fails that hurdle. Save money? Ok if you thinks so. Good luck with that. Just sharing with you of course and as I said previously I am under no illusion that I can control the market ....if other folk think they have found the magic formula...I look forward to reading the book.
BB one thing i have learnt re charting is that its a useful tool for timing in and out of stocks IN ADDITION to Fundamental Analysis. You can save money with this timing aid. I have no int in going in deep T/A wise but respect folks like Hoop and BC sharing what they have thats the share trader Community working well for all. You can hold till it folds(sorry being kenny Rogers couldnt resist) and take the divs with you, average in average out, get right out with the divs, climb back in for more. Diff Strokes i agree , micro manage or Dig over the garden.Everything in its place and a palace for everything:)

Hoop
17-07-2014, 10:43 AM
Directors buying is for my mind a buy signal. Improving P/E and %yield is another. It's also not a bad defensive stock (more appealing to me right now than a lot of low revenue 'growth' stocks that are currently being promoted on ST).

From what I see, this stock's price is not far off recovering...and because three directors agree well enough to put their own money behind it, I'm sufficiently confident to buy a small parcel. The rest I'll purchase on the way up...once an upward trend-line has been established. The more conservative investor (Hoop included) may prefer to wait - go right ahead (or rather, 'get in behind'). Timing is as much an art as it is a science.

BC

Not all Director buy ins (insider trading) result in positive outcomes....Its very common with Directors, top and middle management and general employees to have Myopic behaviour towards the Company they work for..
...and that behavioural condition blurs their senses to what is truly happening within the greater environment surrounding their business...

A great example of this Myopia was Paul Byrnes of DPC in early 2008 who dived in between 82c and 69c during DPC prolonged downtrend..he was in the finance department when the Finance Industry Sector was in turmoil. He later became CFO ..so to us mere mortals Byrnes series of buy ins would be signaled as a screaming buy signals suggesting a bottom close at hand...TA had no buy signals (obviously)..so who would you believe, an employee working at the coalface or a bunch of squiggly lines on a chart??? In Hindsight....yes all downtrends end and a bottom eventually reached..in DPC's case it was ~3c..

".....Improving P/E and %yield is another....." Always happens with a falling P...Its the E that counts and everyone will be interested in the E at the next reporting in 6 weeks time..The positive thing about E now is that there's been no negative update disclosure...

"...It's also not a bad defensive stock...".....really!!!...a long term downtrending stock within a raging bull market environment is a defensive stock?... not likely!!. In any case while we are still making money in this bull market..there is no need to invest in true defensive stocks just yet...

Bobcat..Yes a part of investing is to pre-empt a situation and to capitalise from that situation when it arrives...It has the highest reward...investors talk about it when its successful ..But in reality its high risk and more often than not it turns out to be a dud investment and investors remain silent when that happens..thus causing one to think success is higher than failure because we hear more about successes than failures... All share prices have a risk/reward factor discounted into it....


Yep...fair enough ..bet a small bit now..and invest when the tide turns... I sometimes break discipline to do this ..more often than not I wished I hadn't done it..but it satisfies 2 mental itches one is greed, the other is excitement.

...."The more conservative investor (Hoop included) may prefer to wait - go right ahead (or rather, 'get in behind')......"
It's been mathematically proven over and over again Bobcat....the sweetspot, the maximum return from a medium/long term buy in investment is after a bottom has happened and a confirmed uptrend has been signaled.

couta1
17-07-2014, 10:43 AM
I'm in, having just bought a small parcel at 152c. There's good volume on bid down to 146c (85k, which is higher than any day's volume going back over a year) but I'd be very surprised if the price drops that far. If so, I have a 5% stop loss that kicks in at 145c.

Onward and upward.

BC

Edit: Already $54k traded and the market's only been open for 40mins! Large volume frequently indicates a momentum pivot.
Looks like you got your timing right here BC,well done:cool:

BIRMANBOY
17-07-2014, 10:45 AM
Good on you for getting some action.... this pattern of dropping, followed soon after by a small rise and then reverting back into a lower drop has been going on for a long time now and every time I think...maybe now its bottoming out.....several weeks later its still following the same pattern. However maybe this time its different ...eventually it has to be, maybe.:p Anyway all good fun.
I'm in, having just bought a small parcel at 152c. There's good volume on bid down to 146c (85k, which is higher than any day's volume going back over a year) but I'd be very surprised if the price drops that far. If so, I have a 5% stop loss that kicks in at 145c.

Onward and upward.

BC

Edit: Already $54k traded and the market's only been open for 40mins! Large volume frequently indicates a momentum pivot.

Tony Two Gloves
17-07-2014, 10:50 AM
Thanks all for your comments above very interesting, I am in this morning at $1.52 with a reasonable chunk hope to add to this if I can see a solid uptrend forming.

Hoop
17-07-2014, 11:06 AM
Okay folks which horse will be the first to hit a 50% paper loss on my portfolio I've got Ttk on 45.5%, Peb on 44.5%, SLI on 44.4% and Dil on 42% oh and coming up the rear is Xro on 38.8% I'm kinda leaning toward SLi cause I think there's more dumbarse sellers betting on that horse,you gotta laugh or you'd be pretty miserable aye:eek2:



...."The more conservative investor (Hoop included) may prefer to wait - go right ahead (or rather, 'get in behind')......"
It's been mathematically proven over and over again Bobcat....the sweetspot, the maximum return from a medium/long term buy in investment is after a bottom has happened and a confirmed uptrend has been signaled.

Couta..I must admit when I read your posts it depresses me.. please please... put me out of my misery by doing my above quote and do it quickly...

Bobcat.
17-07-2014, 11:08 AM
138,000 is a major increase in volume. Average daily volume over the past two years has been only ~30,000. The last time we got a large volume like this was in Dec 2012 when the share price turned around to shoot up sharply 20% within a week. Check the chart.

IMO, this is a very good sign that the stock price is now in recovery.

BC

winner69
17-07-2014, 11:11 AM
138,000 is a major increase in volume. Average daily volume over the past two years has been only ~30,000. The last time we got a large volume like this was in Dec 2012 when the share price turned around to shoot up sharply 20% within a week. Check the chart.

IMO, this is a very good sign that the stock price is now in recovery.

BC

This is what happens at Briscoes, The Warehouse,Rebel Sport etc .......put.a SALE sign up and he punters come out of the woodwork.

Ironically the discounts are about the sad eh ......50% off and all that

percy
17-07-2014, 11:13 AM
This is what happens at Briscoes, The Warehouse,Rebel Sport etc .......put.a SALE sign up and he punters come out of the woodwork.

Ironically the discounts are about the sad eh ......50% off and all that

BUT WAIT !!!!!
Next week take a further 20% off our lowest ever price!!!!

Bobcat.
17-07-2014, 11:18 AM
All sales come to an end. Get in before it's marked back up to its RRP.

BIRMANBOY
17-07-2014, 11:25 AM
BC your positive vibes are pulsing out strongly...I can sense your eagerness ...hope you're right. Just seems like there are always more sellers than buyers and eventually the eager buyers get absorbed and more sellers appear..don't know but watching and waiting ...as usual. However good to know that you think the patient is out of intensive care.:)
138,000 is a major increase in volume. Average daily volume over the past two years has been only ~30,000. The last time we got a large volume like this was in Dec 2012 when the share price turned around to shoot up sharply 20% within a week. Check the chart.

IMO, this is a very good sign that the stock price is now in recovery.

BC

Bobcat.
17-07-2014, 11:26 AM
Don't think I'd call it a turnaround yet, more like ST lurkers jumping on for a quick buck! Watch for break of 30 day MA for possible reversal (appears to be a sell point right now when touched/near so be careful!)

Since when have you been so conservative, Moosie? Don't ignore the volume. It's a turnaround play today.

Yes, I'm sticking my neck out again...but I do like the look of this one, and have put money where my mouth is.

Longhaul
17-07-2014, 11:49 AM
Yes, I'm sticking my neck out again...but I do like the look of this one, and have put money where my mouth is.

Good on you BC.

Obviously you've set a stop loss, but do you decide when to get out if it continues up?

Joshuatree
17-07-2014, 11:49 AM
BB it works for long term investing too re timing in and out. Hey you have to buy and sell at least once unless you're on a mobius loop:p
Averaging in and out also a great way ; do it with a check of the DMA even better.

Bobcat.
17-07-2014, 12:47 PM
Good on you BC.
Obviously you've set a stop loss, but do you decide when to get out if it continues up?

I have a target of 25% but if it looks to be peaking with increasing volumes I will sell out sooner. Also relevant are timing of AGM (late Oct) and FY Report (end of Sept), offshore Equity market sentiments, RSI>80, DMI and sometimes I'll also look at Parabolic SAR and Bollinger Bands.

For what it's worth to you, I'm picking that the sp will now recover all the way through to the AGM.

Trading to it.

BC

Tony Two Gloves
18-07-2014, 11:00 AM
Don't think I'd call it a turnaround yet, more like ST lurkers jumping on for a quick buck! Watch for break of 30 day MA for possible reversal (appears to be a sell point right now when touched/near so be careful!)Hmmm looks like a turn around to me, bigger things at play here than the chart lines me thinks.

samdaman
18-07-2014, 11:18 AM
quick question. are the upcoming dividends still fully imputed?

Hoop
18-07-2014, 11:43 AM
Hmmm looks like a turn around to me, bigger things at play here than the chart lines me thinks.
You underestimate charts..
Charts and indicators are a graphic relection of investor behaviour...Any change in behaviour is noticed...
OBV and other money flow indicators have fired buy signals...the Momentum indicators such as scholastics are firing but the the more medium term indicator Momentum indicator hasn't yet.
Neither has the DMI or the other medium term trend based indicators..

So the risky short term punters could be in with the view they will exit with any short term sell indicator triggering...

162 seems to be the next resistance level....I guess if this level is breached the medium term buy signals will start triggering off...

Buying in close to resistance levels is considered risky...If you like that sort of investment discipline Strategy then the ideal (less risk) entry point is near support levels with stop loss in place and sell near resistance level at any hint of weakness.

Personally..I won't get excited until the trend is reversed...that is, above 170

BIRMANBOY
18-07-2014, 02:30 PM
Buyers seem to be reluctant to spend over 1.60 so could be a "flash in the pan". Unfortunately doesn't seem to be any real on-going depth in the buys. Traders trading but no real substance behind it all. As Hoop says will need more evidence before trend looks interesting.

horus1
18-07-2014, 02:57 PM
They look to have hit bottom at 1.55. Decent volume going thru at 1.64. Time to top up

BIRMANBOY
18-07-2014, 03:09 PM
As of 3.43 last trade was 1.60 and only one trade of 1300 at 1.64 ...are we looking at same thing?
They look to have hit bottom at 1.55. Decent volume going thru at 1.64. Time to top up

noodles
19-07-2014, 11:11 PM
Should I have found this video amusing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s7lQ7UAyis&index=8&list=PL5yfunAcL8mBKtSyGL7-z3BJYEXSYo1HH

BlackPeter
20-07-2014, 07:02 AM
Should I have found this video amusing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s7lQ7UAyis&index=8&list=PL5yfunAcL8mBKtSyGL7-z3BJYEXSYo1HH

Oh dear ... they must have shot this video on the day after Teamtalks recent teambuilding event (poker nonstop through the night)

BIRMANBOY
20-07-2014, 10:51 AM
If you have to ask then it was a little too understated for you obviously. I think it struck the right balance however ...its not supposed to be a "funny" video but David endeavoured to give some of the company vision and also make a point of the fact that they are NOT a monolithic corporation but a nimble, bright but fun company. I believe he achieved that in a short time..not easy to do but worked for me.
Should I have found this video amusing?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5s7lQ7UAyis&index=8&list=PL5yfunAcL8mBKtSyGL7-z3BJYEXSYo1HH

Joshuatree
20-07-2014, 01:39 PM
Divs will keep flowing, thats good. .He is an eccentric quirky guy(i like) and should book him into the After Market lounge sometime. Good idea to be grateful your'e still alive when you wake up each day afresh and thanking the Queen is an entertaining idea:) but singing the anthem not:(. Still watching for poss entry for a Birman inducing income.

samdaman
21-07-2014, 01:16 PM
I asked a wee bit back but it seemed to be skipped over pretty quick.

Are the upcoming dividends still fully imputed? My models would really enjoy an answer to this :)

percy
21-07-2014, 01:41 PM
I asked a wee bit back but it seemed to be skipped over pretty quick.

Are the upcoming dividends still fully imputed? My models would really enjoy an answer to this :)

Ring the company secretary Geoff Davis on 04 802 1470 and ask him.

percy
21-07-2014, 09:12 PM
"THE END IS NIGH"
Forbar have TTK as an outperform with a target price of $1.78....??????

couta1
21-07-2014, 09:17 PM
"THE END IS NIGH"
Forbar have TTK as an outperform with a target price of $1.78....??????
Now that's sounds like an underperforming outperform if ever I heard one.

Bobcat.
21-07-2014, 09:31 PM
"THE END IS NIGH"
Forbar have TTK as an outperform with a target price of $1.78....??????

A typo - one of their junior brokers meant to type $2.78 ... surely.

BlackPeter
22-07-2014, 10:32 AM
here we go:

https://www.nzx.com/companies/TTK/announcements/252940

Probably a sensible move for TTK, though sadly another loss for the Christchurch based Tait Communications (which happens to compete against MSI). My (patriotic) heart is bleeding, but as TTK share holder I agree it is better to set on the winning horse ...

BlackPeter
28-07-2014, 05:47 PM
SP crashed today through the MA30 and fundamentals looking good (P/E 10.9) ... up, up, and away?

samdaman
28-07-2014, 06:17 PM
SP crashed today through the MA30 and fundamentals looking good (P/E 10.9) ... up, up, and away?

Saw crashed and thought it had plummeted downwards D: happy to see it rising though. I reckon its still a bargain with that dividend and growth potential. I think the 1.70 is the big barrier I'd want to see it push past before I was confident it's on its way back up.

Harvey Specter
28-07-2014, 08:29 PM
SP crashed today through the MA30 and fundamentals looking good (P/E 10.9) ... up, up, and away?


Saw crashed and thought it had plummeted downwards D:I think he meant 'Smashed', not 'Crashed' - the english language is weird isn't it.

BlackPeter
28-07-2014, 09:07 PM
I think he meant 'Smashed', not 'Crashed' - the english language is weird isn't it.

weird, indeed. l would have thought that "smashing" describes the actions of a subject , and "crashing" what happens with an object. The question is now, whether you consider the SP a subject or an object.

Anyway - sorry for any confusion , but main thing is that the SP moved upwards.

Discl: holding .... and yes, English is neither my first nor my second language ... I.e. trust the natives (but not too much);)

BTW - just found that others wondered about the difference of these two verbs as well - for what it is worth: http://www.italki.com/question/225107

Hoop
28-07-2014, 10:44 PM
SP crashed today through the MA30 and fundamentals looking good (P/E 10.9) ... up, up, and away?

Hi BP
saying it crashed through the MA30 today sounds rather dramatic...eh?
Yes it did...but MA30 is a rather sensitive indicator and sensitive indicators have a bad habit of "Faking Out" investors with those newly bought shares.
In saying that, the EMA30 is very well behaved on the TTK chart and when it has false signaled it hasn't been by much...Much better than the RSI MACD momentum indicators (set on default) which have a habit of firing off buy signals during sucker rallies just before they end...


With TTK ,,, the downtrend is weakening yet again for the umpteenth time ...Is this a cyclic reversal at 150 or is it another sucker rally in progress???..It's hard to tell, so treat it as a bear cycle until the reversal is confirmed...at the moment the Coppock Indicator which indicates cycle reversals from bear to bull hasn't fired any signals so that's not good news..the other confirmation is the trend reverses to up trend... shares make higher highs and higher lows ...TTK has to break through the 170 bull bear line for this trend reversal to begin ...then more confirmations are needed.

Disc: own none ...its better for me just to stay away from bear cycle shares... period!!!!...but I have added it to my watchlist

TTK closed at 165 +3c +1.85%

http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/TTK28072014.png (http://s458.photobucket.com/user/Hoop_1/media/TTK28072014.png.html)

BlackPeter
29-07-2014, 07:15 AM
Hi Hoop,

Thanks for this - great chart. Agree that the trend change is not yet 100% confirmed - but than, it never is (unless in hindsight). What I would add as positive indicators is the quite large volume which went through over the last week or so - and director recently buying ...

Sure - waiting for the 170 will make it safer, but than - I am not sure, whether I expect it to go significantly above that - i.e. it means sort of sacrificing most of the potential SP gain for little benefit ... unless you expect the company to curl up its toenails (which I don't). 15 cts divi coming from a $1.60 share looks still nicer than coming from the same share bought at $1.70.

Anyway, signals probably good enough for me to buy more if I wouldn't have already reached my personal limit for this stock (i.e. yes, in average I bought too dear ...) - and it doesn't look that good, that I want to break my investment rules;

Discl: DYOR - my crystal ball is cloudy ...

horus1
29-07-2014, 07:33 AM
Three directors and the chairman have bought in the last 4-6 months .. I think it is a stock which will resist a big downturn and pay a good dividend

BIRMANBOY
29-07-2014, 10:16 AM
The recurring pattern with this is not convincing enough for me to believe its bottomed out. Has exhibited same thing many times ....one of these days will turn...but when? Still waiting although the good thing is that the buyer/seller ratio has moved to a more equitable situation, but who knows about "unknown" depth. My gut feeling is the buyers are traders and wont be sticking around regardless.

percy
29-07-2014, 12:29 PM
The recurring pattern with this is not convincing enough for me to believe its bottomed out. Has exhibited same thing many times ....one of these days will turn...but when? Still waiting although the good thing is that the buyer/seller ratio has moved to a more equitable situation, but who knows about "unknown" depth. My gut feeling is the buyers are traders and wont be sticking around regardless.

You must be wrong as I agree with you.!!!!!! lol.

BIRMANBOY
29-07-2014, 12:54 PM
In that case I need to re-evaluate my position but since I am familiar with "Shares by Stealth" , should probably consider the possibility that you are employing the "Percy Manoeuvre" :pwhich, as we all know, is predicated on laying red herrings so you can slip in the back door while everybody is trying to figure out what is really going on. E.G. TUA and DPC.
You must be wrong as I agree with you.!!!!!! lol.

percy
29-07-2014, 12:59 PM
In that case I need to re-evaluate my position but since I am familiar with "Shares by Stealth" , should probably consider the possibility that you are employing the "Percy Manoeuvre" :pwhich, as we all know, is predicated on laying red herrings so you can slip in the back door while everybody is trying to figure out what is really going on. E.G. TUA and DPC.

Have always tried to enter via the front door ??!! TUA entry is most probably best summed up as by the "side" door.

Tony Two Gloves
30-07-2014, 10:13 AM
Like the look of how this is shaping up, depth is very lopsided 176,000 buyers v 42,000 sellers, I see a steady climb through $1.70 and beyond up to the Div payout. Have put my money where my mouth is purchasing more yesterday, sellers look like they are starting to hold out for there requested price and will be interesting at what price some volume will start to appear....

BIRMANBOY
13-08-2014, 04:34 PM
Having trouble making and pushing through the 1.70. Those buyers backed up could disappear quickly if looking for a trade. Not enough volume or volatility for a decent trade anyway. Back into the previous downtrend?

samdaman
13-08-2014, 06:40 PM
Id love to know what investors look for return wise because as I see it TTK is a steal. Be greedy when others are fearful. It may take its time but I think its worth a good bit more than it is now

BlackPeter
14-08-2014, 08:53 AM
Id love to know what investors look for return wise because as I see it TTK is a steal. Be greedy when others are fearful. It may take its time but I think its worth a good bit more than it is now

Well, in my books its not yet in the "steal" category, but I consider it as a fairly priced solid dividend earner with potential to grow.

I think the share price has more likely reached its new long term level (well, until fundamentals change - this is). Remember - while they paid a 20 cts dividend, their shares typically moved in the band between 200 to 230 (ignoring the peak after the Farmside merger). Now they have a lower dividend (and earnings) - and are moving in a proportionally lower share price band (151 ... 175?). Fair enough.

Don't see a lot of further downside risk to the share price given the good dividend yield, but not sure whether I expect in the short term huge increases either. Obviously - if & when their earnings increase after finally reaping the benefits from the farmside merger, the band is IMHO likely to rise again. However, I think we are talking in that regard years, not months.

For what it is worth - a total of one analysts on ft.com dared a 12 month prediction: 175cents; In the meantime in my view a good dividend share, worthwhile considering. DYOR;

Discl: holding;

tim23
24-08-2014, 02:16 PM
Anyone know the result date?

BlackPeter
25-08-2014, 08:08 AM
Anyone know the result date?

Not sure, but based on the half year reporting (26 Feb), tomorrow would be a good date. If not tomorrow, than they definitely must come out by Friday.

baywatch
25-08-2014, 06:55 PM
Results due Wednesday 27th August. I don't think we shall see an increase in the divvi

BlackPeter
26-08-2014, 06:47 AM
Results due Wednesday 27th August. I don't think we shall see an increase in the divvi

Agreed. I think it would be already a quite good sign if the EPS are this year materially higher than the promised divvie (remember - last years EPS was 14 cents, last years divvie 20 cents - not sustainable). I am optimistic, but you never know.

winner69
27-08-2014, 03:25 PM
FY out

Don't read anymore than they intend to pay. 15 cent divie next year

Otherwise you get bogged down with large impairment charges sending TTK into a loss and how they have sorted out being in breach o their covenants with Westpac out

All honky dory

You be OK for another year

winner69
27-08-2014, 03:39 PM
Agreed. I think it would be already a quite good sign if the EPS are this year materially higher than the promised divvie (remember - last years EPS was 14 cents, last years divvie 20 cents - not sustainable). I am optimistic, but you never know.

Not counting the write off EPS just over 10 cents which is less than the 17.5 cents full year dividend

Outlook is for flat to slightly less earnings next year so 10 cents EPS next year for a 15 cent dividend

Free Cash Flow was $4.7m this year so your divie be safe next year

Have belief in the future

percy
27-08-2014, 03:51 PM
The word used in the result that best sums this company's prospects is "Grappling."

winner69
27-08-2014, 04:24 PM
The word used in the result that best sums this company's prospects is "Grappling."

In the context it is used a bit of a worry .... suppose grappling is a better strategy than hoping buts lets hope that there not too many more years of talking about the problem

Unfortunately this increased revenue has yet to flow through to the bottom line as we are still grappling with what it takes to deliver these new services in an efficient and cost effective manner.

We have talked about this transition for a number of years now and while performance to date has been a bit rocky we do expect that in the coming year these activities will start contributing in a more meaningful way to our financial results.

BIRMANBOY
27-08-2014, 04:29 PM
What's white fish got to do with the state of things?
FY out

Don't read anymore than they intend to pay. 15 cent divie next year

Otherwise you get bogged down with large impairment charges sending TTK into a loss and how they have sorted out being in breach o their covenants with Westpac out

All honky dory

You be OK for another year

couta1
27-08-2014, 05:39 PM
This will be one of my very long term holds, ten years of divvys should cover the paper loss me thinks but if they get their act together, well you never know what could transpire, I do like the company so that's a bonus aye:cool:

BlackPeter
27-08-2014, 05:40 PM
The word used in the result that best sums this company's prospects is "Grappling."

Yes, and "rocky" seems to fit as well.

Interesting is as well the statement "gaps in some key elements of the management team" (referring to Farmside). Just wondering - is he referring to gaps in managers (how do I imagine that with presumably one manager being one key element)? or is he referring to missing team members?

Overall - TeamTalk is an experienced team but seems to have bought with Farmside a lemmon (and / or at least paid ways too much for it). Nevertheless - good to see that they still make some sort of profit (if we ignore the good will write off). Lets hope the story develops like PGW after the big write off .... there are certainly plenty of opportunities!

BlackPeter
27-08-2014, 05:43 PM
Ah yes - and the liabilities to assets ratio is moving towards CNU levels (well, not quite there yet, but 64.5% isn't flash, either). Hope that they soon start again to earn the divvies they pay.

percy
27-08-2014, 05:51 PM
Must agree with you,"isn't flash" .................may be this year's understatement.!!!! lol.

winner69
27-08-2014, 06:35 PM
Ah yes - and the liabilities to assets ratio is moving towards CNU levels (well, not quite there yet, but 64.5% isn't flash, either). Hope that they soon start again to earn the divvies they pay.

That $34m of debt is a worry but no principal due to December 2015.

Talk of breaching covenants always leads to the old Altman-Z solvency test.

On that balance sheet TTK score is the worst I have come across - even worse than Postie Plus. According to Mr Altman TTK " Probability of Financial embarassment is very high" and this even after not counting the $34m of Retained Losses in Equity.

I would think that Westpac are taking a lot of interest how things are going, and will get more involved if the rocky road becomes rockier I would think

Obviously happy for TTK to pay this divie. Next years?

winner69
27-08-2014, 06:37 PM
Anybody know what their capex requirements are going forward, in the next year or two?

bunter
05-09-2014, 01:32 PM
MD Ware just sold 75,000. Must be planning another trip to Europe. Big fat sell this.

Okebw
05-09-2014, 01:43 PM
MD Ware just sold 75,000. Must be planning another trip to Europe. Big fat sell this.

I only had a very small holding and only for a very brief period but I got out earlier this week at a very small loss. I don't see the priceholding at all after the divie goes ex. Shy of some sort of large contract announcement that is

bunter
05-09-2014, 01:53 PM
I sold when they bought Farmside, and broke even. This acquisition immediately reduced EPS and I wondered what other dumb things they might do.

David Ware writes in plain English and I like that. Doesn't mean he's a good businessman though.
IMO you can only mass send reports to shareholders from the south of France (like he did) when your company is humming.

The Grinch
18-09-2014, 07:19 PM
TTK... one of my first little case studies and have a bit of a sentimental attachment but yes I to am concerned about there level of debt for such a small company and there talk of requiring significant further investment before getting things right.

Plan to have a little more of a looksie this sunday - anyone got leads on particular area's of concern with TTK and any potential light at the end of the tunnel?

Cheers
TG

BlackPeter
19-09-2014, 07:41 AM
TTK... one of my first little case studies and have a bit of a sentimental attachment but yes I to am concerned about there level of debt for such a small company and there talk of requiring significant further investment before getting things right.

Plan to have a little more of a looksie this sunday - anyone got leads on particular area's of concern with TTK and any potential light at the end of the tunnel?

Cheers
TG

They used to be (and I think they still are) a well run mobile radio service provider but realised that this might not be enough to secure their future. I think their strategic move to add internet connectivity and cell phone coverage (for those remote rural areas) was a good one. Obviously - they paid too much for Farmside (given the significant goodwill write down), and they are still struggling to turn a profit out of it.

However - it does take time to grow different business structures and cultures together, and we can't really blame them for the markets hype after the merger. Looking forward it is important to assess whether the people running TTK have the capability to turn the merger into a success.

So - if you want to spend your Sunday doing some further research, here are some questions I'd look into:

* does the TTK board have sufficient experience and skills with mergers / turning companies around?
* if National wins: how well is TTK positioned to benefit from the additional broadband money promised by National?
* what's TTK's unique selling proposition in the Internet market - and how difficult would it be for the big boys to step in?
* how are the latest "connect remote" projects (Haast and Chatham Islands) going?
* any indications how the various TTK business units are growing together?
* how is staff morale at TTK (is the unique company culture the right thing for the people working there) and are there differences in different units?

Note: no loaded questions (I don't know the answers either) and would be interested to learn how you are going .... Enjoy your Sunday|

Discl: still holding (despite TTK being one of the worst performing stocks in my portfolio) and given the current dividend yield too cheap to sell ...

Chaowee88
19-09-2014, 04:59 PM
They used to be (and I think they still are) a well run mobile radio service provider but realised that this might not be enough to secure their future. I think their strategic move to add internet connectivity and cell phone coverage (for those remote rural areas) was a good one. Obviously - they paid too much for Farmside (given the significant goodwill write down), and they are still struggling to turn a profit out of it.

However - it does take time to grow different business structures and cultures together, and we can't really blame them for the markets hype after the merger. Looking forward it is important to assess whether the people running TTK have the capability to turn the merger into a success.

So - if you want to spend your Sunday doing some further research, here are some questions I'd look into:

* does the TTK board have sufficient experience and skills with mergers / turning companies around?
* if National wins: how well is TTK positioned to benefit from the additional broadband money promised by National?
* what's TTK's unique selling proposition in the Internet market - and how difficult would it be for the big boys to step in?
* how are the latest "connect remote" projects (Haast and Chatham Islands) going?
* any indications how the various TTK business units are growing together?
* how is staff morale at TTK (is the unique company culture the right thing for the people working there) and are there differences in different units?

Note: no loaded questions (I don't know the answers either) and would be interested to learn how you are going .... Enjoy your Sunday|

Discl: still holding (despite TTK being one of the worst performing stocks in my portfolio) and given the current dividend yield too cheap to sell ...

TTK's yield is delicious but is it sustainable? Debt is now over 34 million, I'd be a little skeptical. Particularly now with a new acquisition which is underperforming, if debt blows out even more the dividend will definitely be cut. An example is CAV, debt 58.8 million, earnings of 5.8. TTK isn't far off those numbers.

couta1
19-09-2014, 05:30 PM
The yield for me is not so delicious at around 6% including imps due to my high buy in price, I'll stick with them as long as they pay a dividend but if they cut it all together I'm out and will take a good sized loss, have just received the annual report in the mail and skimmed it but won't be reading it in depth as its pretty obvious what has to happen if we are ever to see the share price near my buy in, still the potential is there to turn things around over the next few years.

BlackPeter
19-09-2014, 05:34 PM
TTK's yield is delicious but is it sustainable? Debt is now over 34 million, I'd be a little skeptical. Particularly now with a new acquisition which is underperforming, if debt blows out even more the dividend will definitely be cut. An example is CAV, debt 58.8 million, earnings of 5.8. TTK isn't far off those numbers.

Fair point ... if we assume they just continue doing what they are doing now without sorting out their Farmside issues, than they won't go down, but they will have to (further) cut at some stage the divvie. If we however assume that their strategy works out, that they get a nice share in the further broadbandisation of rural NZ and that Farmside starts firing on (at least) the second cylinder ... than they should be fine.

Which one it will be? Your guess is as good as mine. Obviously hope for some enlightenment after TG reporting on his Sunday assignment ... ;)

BIRMANBOY
20-09-2014, 10:13 AM
So one good thing about the SP is it that appears to have reached a sticking point of 1.60 to 1.70. The SP decline going back 18 months or so has evened out and for the last 5 months has been mostly 1.65 plus /minus. Dividend coming up soon and the true test will be what the SP does after it goes ex-div. There's not a lot of information coming out about results etc so could turn north quickly if results are good/promising. Personally I am expecting more of a drop after the div so am trying to hold off buying again till then...but of course then miss out getting that dividend which is not insubstantial. I am a bit overloaded in this which is making my diversification look out of wack.

Chaowee88
20-09-2014, 12:14 PM
The yield for me is not so delicious at around 6% including imps due to my high buy in price, I'll stick with them as long as they pay a dividend but if they cut it all together I'm out and will take a good sized loss, have just received the annual report in the mail and skimmed it but won't be reading it in depth as its pretty obvious what has to happen if we are ever to see the share price near my buy in, still the potential is there to turn things around over the next few years.

I question your investment strategy. Cutting your losses is all an good but there needs to be a major deterioration to warrant a stock which you have stuck to for so long to dump. If the dividend is to be cut then by the time you decide to dump, you may find yourself in serious trouble because the market will have already factored in the loss of dividend into the price. You may get the dividends now but the capital loss most likely will be much more severe.
One example, is one of my investments when I first started a couple of years back. I brought APN nzx when they were 70C (with a divie) but as debt blew out and the balance sheet crushed by goodwill writedowns the divie was cut. The stock dived to 30C nzx. I lost nearly 60% of my initial investment. Instead of cutting my losses I averaged down all the way as it fell. The reason why because cutting of divie a frees up more free cash flow to pay debt down. It not necessary a bad thing and APN is a fine example of this (APN is now trading at 90 on nzx). I think you need to look more carefully at your investment strategy.

BIRMANBOY
20-09-2014, 02:12 PM
Everyone has a different interpretation on the relative worth of averaging down...on this forum you will find it is generally regarded in the same light as criticizing the AB"s...not the right thing to do. However a majority of posters here are traders and this is to be expected. Averaging down has been a good tool for me as well so I agree with its use when used in a discriminating manner. Its certainly more suited to a long term investor however since it can be years as it plays out. If you think about it its no different from a drip feed investor who buys $1000 (or whatever) a month on the understanding that over time it evens out and by regular payments it takes away the factor of trying to figure out when the "right" time to buy is. Personally my averaging down has turned out well approx. 80% of the time. However its dependent on the individual goals and timeframe of the investor so never clear cut.
I question your investment strategy. Cutting your losses is all an good but there needs to be a major deterioration to warrant a stock which you have stuck to for so long to dump. If the dividend is to be cut then by the time you decide to dump, you may find yourself in serious trouble because the market will have already factored in the loss of dividend into the price. You may get the dividends now but the capital loss most likely will be much more severe.
One example, is one of my investments when I first started a couple of years back. I brought APN nzx when they were 70C (with a divie) but as debt blew out and the balance sheet crushed by goodwill writedowns the divie was cut. The stock dived to 30C nzx. I lost nearly 60% of my initial investment. Instead of cutting my losses I averaged down all the way as it fell. The reason why because cutting of divie a frees up more free cash flow to pay debt down. It not necessary a bad thing and APN is a fine example of this (APN is now trading at 90 on nzx). I think you need to look more carefully at your investment strategy.

skid
20-09-2014, 03:07 PM
It would be interesting to see statistics of % of success of averaging down,but i suppose it depends alot on that ''discriminating manner'' you speak of.
Id be surprised if many achieved that ''turning out well 80% of the time'' buying into a downtrend.
Glad it worked for you though.

Chaowee88
20-09-2014, 05:44 PM
It would be interesting to see statistics of % of success of averaging down,but i suppose it depends alot on that ''discriminating manner'' you speak of.
Id be surprised if many achieved that ''turning out well 80% of the time'' buying into a downtrend.
Glad it worked for you though.

I was referring to Couta who invests via long term holds, which you can pick up on, via his posts on XERO. I find his investment methodology confusing. If you really believe in the long term viability of a company and it get cheaper, it would make you want to buy more? However he would more likely sell out to cut his losses which is strange, especially like what he has stated here.
When I read his post he stated that he would cut his investment if dividends fell through, but in essence that naive.
That because in capital deployment, when a firm earns free cash flow it has options as to where to deploy this capital. If a firm chooses to pay dividends it because that is creating 'most' value for shareholders. Other options include acquisitions, debt repayment and the lists go on...
However just because divie a cut doesn't mean the firm has failed, it could mean the cash flow generated is deployed elsewhere which management believe can create greater value than distributing as dividends.
I think Couta invests too much via what he sees on the surface and not enough via actual analysis which is a reflection of why his holdings have all struggled.

I am not attacking Couta but stating what I think he needs to reflect on so he can improve on his investments.

Chaowee88
20-09-2014, 05:58 PM
It would be interesting to see statistics of % of success of averaging down,but i suppose it depends alot on that ''discriminating manner'' you speak of.
Id be surprised if many achieved that ''turning out well 80% of the time'' buying into a downtrend.
Glad it worked for you though.

I agree with you though averaging down is not something you should do on any firm. It should only be used when you believe in the long term viability and the firm's product/service's long term viability. It not something that most people would like to do either, because investments could come up with 20%, 50% even 80% losses before it rallies. Some people wouldn't be able to bear losses, let alone for long periods of time.
Having said this it has worked out very well for me with not just APN but a couple others of my investments.
Which is probably why I'm still sticking by JWI as the price is still so depressed (Held this for nearly 2 years now).

The Grinch
21-09-2014, 09:27 PM
Okay, just finished playing with my spread sheet of lies and distortions (believe that was STC's reference).


Before I begin I would like to say I am happy to provide my sheet to anyone who wishes to review further and provide considerate feedback. Please just PM me and I will flick it through to you. If you have any of your own work would appreciate the insights.


First off the cab is basics thoughts on BlackPeter's (cheers) questions:

* does the TTK board have sufficient experience and skills with mergers / turning companies around?
Yes, David and his team are well qualified in this area. We are talking about a guy that successfully started a company in an industry dominated by a few big players/high costs of entry/prone to regulation measures etc. to be honest I would love to see the initial business case he presented to the VC company that backed their first endeavour. It must have been impressive because I would have rated there chances at slim to nothing. They then went on to buy Telecoms mobile radio network that they were making nothing off and probably considered would be obsolete in 10 years. Not only were they successful in making money out of that dog but they have acquired citylink and araneo which have performed well. They really do seem to take the opportunity to try and synergise were possible - definitely room for this between Farmside, Araneo and TeamTalk.

* if National wins: how well is TTK positioned to benefit from the additional broadband money promised by National?
To be honest I don't see this as a big one, they will likely win some more dicky contracts supplying to no were, the ones the big guys put a decent margin on to make it worth there while.

* what's TTK's unique selling proposition in the Internet market - and how difficult would it be for the big boys to step in?
David isn't a very smooth salesman or the most PC but has been about as clear as you can be on there unique selling proposition. They are niche. The big players won't lower themselves to TTK's playground because it would require strict controls, strong management and harder/less rewarding than developing a new product that is $2 more that they can sell to their already huge customer base. It's not worth there time.

* how are the latest "connect remote" projects (Haast and Chatham Islands) going?
Imagine they are going just fine, its same old same old business for Farmside (well maybe a little but bigger than normal) and Araneo's expertise will help. Would not say this is a big factor on whether this company is going to live up to the Altman Z statistics or not.

* any indications how the various TTK business units are growing together?
As majority ownership in Citylink (website is horrible) is 5yrs old and Araneo over 3yrs these two acquisitions are well bedded in and I would say very complimentry given a quick search of there website. David has already thrashed Farmside management and I imagine has a bit more to go but will get their I'm sure.

* how is staff morale at TTK (is the unique company culture the right thing for the people working there) and are there differences in different units?
Good question and I would love to spend a day on the floor of the company, talk to some of the employees etc but unfortunately any investment I make in TTK is only likely to be around the $5k mark so undertaking that expedition would have a decent wack on my returns. Speculation via google hasn't produced anything.

The Grinch
21-09-2014, 10:08 PM
Now for the lies.

I know I will be shot for posting two optimistic calls in a row (I like CAV) and particularly given how many negative comments on this company to date - not to mention my valuation is done on an unorthodox basis.

Valuation: $1.44-1.76
Rated: Buy (Gutometer tells me valuation is definitely on the low side)

Reason: When you look at this company from an EBIT point of view most of your models and calc's are going to lead you towards an ugly/distorted verdict. Due to the companies significant depreciation expenses (predominantly on Network Hardware that they have given a mix of between 5-40 years life) the EBIT I feel is not a true reflection of income. If you analyse the company with plenty of reference to their cashflow statements the numbers start to come closer to the reality that David Ware speaks of i.e. TTK seems to pay an average 50% of net operating cashflow as dividends and the remainder goes towards paying interest, Tax and investing in infrastructure. The company based on cashflow is still able to pay a 20c divie going forward however this would break the trend of under 60% of cashflow going into Divies and TTK have highlighted the need to invest in further infrastructure going forward to fix there Farmside acquisition and adjust to Nationals rocking the industry boat.

I believe TTK still has another 12 months before there is light at the end of the tunnel. Expect a bit more price weakness but imagine I will own shares by Christmas.

Appreciate thoughts etc.

Regards
TG

Altman Z - I have followed the standard Z model for non-manufacturing entities and excluded all none cash expenses (depreciation/amortisation etc) and goodwill. At 2.8 it isn't good but not overly concerning as long as it does not maintain its trend.

Times Interest Earned - When looked at from EBIT point of view is not flash (2.84) but if looked at from a cashflow point of view (which I thing is more appropriate for TTK as they have significant none cash expenses) they are sitting at a very healthy 6.32.



TIE



2014

2013

2012

2011

2010



2.84

3.10

6.12

4.62

3.42



6.32











Altman Z 2014 (in 000's)



Working Capital:
$ 90



Total Assets:
$ 58,648



T1:
0.0015



Retained Earnings
$ 7,551



Total Assets:
$ 58,648



T2:
0.1288



EBIT:
$ 13,241



Total Assets:
$ 58,648



T3:
0.2258



MVE:
$ 45,390



Total Liabilities:
$ 53,703



T4:
0.8452



Zscore:
2.83






Operating Costs




Dep. On network assets:
$ 7,410




Impairment of assets:
$ 1,486




Amort. of intangibles:
$ 502




Telco development levy:
$ 549




Network operating costs:
$ 14,085




other operating costs:
$ 13,103





$ 37,135




Non cash expenses:
$ 9,398

BlackPeter
22-09-2014, 07:58 AM
Hi TG ... interesting analysis ... and thanks for looking into my questions.

Not sure, whether your target price would be that controversial - hey, the current SP is anyway in the band you quoted (which happens to be quite similar to the band I am working with: roughly 1.55 to 1.75 just based on history and earnings) ... and the lonely analyst quoted by FT who dared to do a 12 month prediction comes up with $1.75 as well.

Obviously - a company can't live from cash flow forever ... at some stage the NPAT must come back (or the flow will stop) - and this is where I would probably put some different priorities on your findings.

Looking at their business segments:

Mobile Radio ... yes, they started with PMR and managed to keep that going - and I do have some trust in the guy who runs this division (Peter Baines). However - it is certainly not a growth business, and there are some risks for them due to competition from newer technologies and other emerging networks (be it cellphones or be it the public mobile radio network) ... i.e. I wouldn't bet the farm based on this part of their business.

High Speed Internet in towns: Makes currently money, but there are a lot of bigger players around. I wish them (TTK) well, but I am not really sure, whether I see their unique advantages in this area.

Which brings us to the connection of remote areas to broadband and cell phone services. In my view this segment (if they get it right) is the only real growth proposition they have - and the potential could be huge (think not just New Zealand, there are zillions of remote areas around the globe in need of connection). Having specialist knowledge in this domain can be huge.

So - IMHO it will be crucial that they get the Chathams and Haast right (and I have no indication of the opposite, but I don't know and I haven't yet seen a project without risks) - and it will be very important that there are more of these projects and that they get them into their sales pipeline. Given that the elections are over am I optimistic National makes good on its promises to put more money into rural connectivity, and they should be well positioned to get their fair share (or a bit more ...).

Discl: holding. DYOR.

The Grinch
22-09-2014, 04:55 PM
Hey BP

Cheers and appreciate the feedback.

Thoughts

Obviously - a company can't live from cash flow forever ... at some stage the NPAT must come back (or the flow will stop) - and this is where I would probably put some different priorities on your findings.

Agreed especially when they only have $58mil worth of assets - can hardly continue to depreciate at the $7-9mil mark for long. I guess I felt that there recent troubles stemmed more from difficulties with the Farmside Acquisition and that once they have worked through this it would be back to the good old days especially as this transitions them further away from the PMR space.

Mobile Radio ... yes, they started with PMR and managed to keep that going - and I do have some trust in the guy who runs this division (Peter Baines). However - it is certainly not a growth business, and there are some risks for them due to competition from newer technologies and other emerging networks (be it cellphones or be it the public mobile radio network) ... i.e. I wouldn't bet the farm based on this part of their business.

Very true and seen in their effort to grow revenues in other areas.

High Speed Internet in towns: Makes money currently, but there are a lot of bigger players around. I wish them (TTK) well, but I am not really sure, whether I see their unique advantages in this area.

True, scary space to be in. I guess I feel that they have coped well to date and I'm a firm believer in good management making the right opportunities eventuate.

Which brings us to the connection of remote areas to broadband and cell phone services. In my view this segment (if they get it right) is the only real growth proposition they have - and the potential could be huge (think not just New Zealand, there are zillions of remote areas around the globe in need of connection). Having specialist knowledge in this domain can be huge.

So - IMHO it will be crucial that they get the Chathams and Haast right (and I have no indication of the opposite, but I don't know and I haven't yet seen a project without risks) - and it will be very important that there are more of these projects and that they get them into their sales pipeline. Given that the elections are over am I optimistic National makes good on its promises to put more money into rural connectivity, and they should be well positioned to get their fair share (or a bit more ...).

Very good point and well taken, I will have to adjust my sails a little it seems.

Regards
TG

winner69
22-09-2014, 06:51 PM
Cant quite follow you guys when you say Obviously - a company can't live from cash flow forever ... at some stage the NPAT must come back (or the flow will stop)

I would have though that strong operating cash flows were an imperative, and more important than a reported NPAT number

Don't those cash flows fund future investment and pay that 15 cent dividend?

The operating cash flows in $9.4m in F13 and the $10.5m in F14 were pretty respectable. However what you both say they could and should be better. To me both these numbers more important than NPAT

Maybe something is lost in translation

BlackPeter
22-09-2014, 09:00 PM
Cant quite follow you guys when you say Obviously - a company can't live from cash flow forever ... at some stage the NPAT must come back (or the flow will stop)

I would have though that strong operating cash flows were an imperative, and more important than a reported NPAT number

Don't those cash flows fund future investment and pay that 15 cent dividend?

The operating cash flows in $9.4m in F13 and the $10.5m in F14 were pretty respectable. However what you both say they could and should be better. To me both these numbers more important than NPAT

Maybe something is lost in translation

Hi Winner,

Quite simple ... if a company lives off cash flow which is higher than its NPAT, than something has to give ... typically the company would write off something and not replace (e.g. good will, like TTK this year). The book value is falling - and as soon as the book value of the company is lower than their liabilities, it is (not just technically) bankrupt, which sort of stops the "living of cash flow game".

Admittedly, some companies (with high NTA or lots of undervalued assets) can play this game a long time. TTK unfortunately can't - not much fat left in the system.

Makes sense?

BIRMANBOY
14-10-2014, 04:27 PM
This company badly needs some good news. The SP is continuing its decline again, and just when I though it had evened out and reached a level of comfort...whoops ..some selling pressure kicks in again. Oh well watching again......slow motion train wreck (for SP anyway).

Chaowee88
14-10-2014, 04:56 PM
This company badly needs some good news. The SP is continuing its decline again, and just when I though it had evened out and reached a level of comfort...whoops ..some selling pressure kicks in again. Oh well watching again......slow motion train wreck (for SP anyway).

Shouldn't come as any surprise. The SP is only being held up by the dividend now that it ex, investors fret over whether or not the dividend is sustainable. Debt has blown out to nearly 35 Mill and for a company with just around 5 million free cash flow that 7X Debt to FCF. Ugly to say the least. Add in the market cap of 42 million enterprise value is 77 million/5 = 15.4X wayyy too high. Compare that to JWI for example, debt 12.5 market cap at 15C = 13.4 = enterprise value of 25.9, FCF as per last 3 years is approx 3 - 3.5 million = 25.9/3 = 8.633X and JWI says their debt is too high and don't pay a divie.

Obviously investors have priced TTK higher because it offers investors a dividend but really they burning holes in their pockets because funding a 15C divie each year is costing them approx 4.2 million, essentially all of their free cash flow.

From my perspective I think they can still fall further..

percy
14-10-2014, 05:01 PM
Shouldn't come as any surprise. The SP is only being held up by the dividend now that it ex, investors fret over whether or not the dividend is sustainable. Debt has blown out to nearly 35 Mill and for a company with just around 5 million free cash flow that 7X Debt to FCF. Ugly to say the least. Add in the market cap of 42 million enterprise value is 77 million/5 = 15.4X wayyy too high. Compare that to JWI for example, debt 12.5 market cap at 15C = 13.4 = enterprise value of 25.9, FCF as per last 3 years is approx 3 - 3.5 million = 25.9/3 = 8.633X and JWI says their debt is too high and don't pay a divie.

Obviously investors have priced TTK higher because it offers investors a dividend but really they burning holes in their pockets because funding a 15C divie each year is costing them approx 4.2 million, essentially all of their free cash flow.

From my perspective I think they can still fall further..

Have to agree with you.An excellent post.
Not flash a few weeks ago has now turned ugly!!
A lot of shares for sale.!

couta1
14-10-2014, 05:22 PM
Have to agree with you.An excellent post.
Not flash a few weeks ago has now turned ugly!!
A lot of shares for sale.!
Considering it recently shed a 7.5c divvy it doesn't look any more ugly than a lot of other stocks right now eg Air NZ $2.21 pre divvy now $1.79 etc etc.I see one large block of 100k shares the rest small blocks and I remember quite a few months back there was a block of 200k shares on the block(Excuse the pun)

percy
14-10-2014, 05:28 PM
Considering it recently shed a 7.5c divvy it doesn't look any more ugly than a lot of other stocks right now eg Air NZ $2.21 pre divvy now $1.79 etc etc

Do not hold that one either!!!!

BlackPeter
28-10-2014, 06:32 PM
Just spend my afternoon at the Christchurch share holders meeting.

My impressions:

good bubbly and orange juice (and probably good wine, but I didn't check the latter out).
should have counted the participants, but estimate in hindsight at around 40 .. 50 (heads - the average age must have been ways higher).
one shareholder who must sit on a paper loss of roughly half a million dollars (buying 300k odd shares at around $3 as it sounded) making a somewhat depressing statement. I felt with the guy, but why would you put all your eggs into one basket?
number of questions around new projects and David Ware appearing optimistic that TTK will get a good share of the $100M the new (&old) government set out to connect rural areas
so far two trial projects for rural connections - Haast & Chathams. TTK won them both (as announced) and they are both basically operational and have already some traffic. They don't make a lot of money with setting up these remote connections, but expect afterwards a continuous income stream when running them.

questions & comments around Farmside:

strategically important, but TTK clearly paid too much for the firm. David Ware accepted that they made a quite significant mistake to buy it at the price they did.
they didn't forecasted the fast drop in satellite connections (due to government subsidized broadband)
not happy about the manager they put in front of Farmside in the first place (now gone).
David Ware is now running Farmside personally and that's the reason they believe (or say) it will be uphill from here.
long term a crucial part (potentially the only one) for future growth.


In summary - they made a mistake around Farmside (paying too much and underestimating the problems) and acknowledge this mistake. As well in discussion with some of the directors I got the impression that they understand most of the problems they have, but I am not sure, whether they have already for all of the issues solutions identified and in place to resolve the problems.

David mentioned that they had to invest this year a lot of money (preparing us for another weak result?), but it sounds there are opportunities around and TTK feels well positioned to grab them. He asked that we don't measure him this financial year against the bottom line, but against the number of new customers / projects they pull on land. I shall remember that ;)

Overall - interesting experience, and despite not getting all the answers, I didn't got the feeling they tried to BS us.

There are clearly risks in the business, but potentially as well big rewards. Intend to keep holding.

The Grinch
28-10-2014, 09:32 PM
Thanks for posting BP.

Will keep on the watchlist :sleep:

percy
29-10-2014, 06:05 AM
Black Peter,
Thank you for your informative post.

couta1
08-12-2014, 06:19 PM
Well finishes the day at $1.80 for a 26week high and the charts look quite good, probably a spin off from the latest Chorus situation?

BlackPeter
08-12-2014, 06:33 PM
Well finishes the day at $1.80 for a 26week high and the charts look quite good, probably a spin off from the latest Chorus situation?

Good question ... I was asking myself the same question. I don't think that the ComCom decision has any material impact on TTK - they are not really in the business to sell huge numbers of broadband connections over copper ... though there might be some minor indirect impact through their Farmside business (I don't know whether their pricing structure is linked to the Chorus pricing).

However - if we assume its not just somebody knowing something the market doesn't know yet, than the most likely explanation seems to be that the market feels so good about Chorus, that they buy other Network providers in sympathy as well. Will be interesting, whether this trend continues .... I agree, the graph looks nice, though the volume is not really overwhelming (yet).

BIRMANBOY
09-12-2014, 09:43 AM
The lack of liquidity in this means just one or two holders and or buyers can move the SP quite significantly. The willing sellers seem to have disappeared however so with one or two eager buyers its not hard to move the price. One good thing that has emerged however is that the ever downward SP drop does seem to have flattened out and 1.50 to 1.60 definitely brings in extra buyers. Not sure if upward move will continue at the same rate but its certainly looking more positive.

couta1
23-01-2015, 02:00 PM
Oh dear back to $1.50 or below and a divvy cut by the looks of the latest news, a bigger red arrow:eek2:

percy
23-01-2015, 02:14 PM
Oh dear back to $1.50 or below and a divvy cut by the looks of the latest news, a bigger red arrow:eek2:

No surprises there!!!

bung5
23-01-2015, 02:26 PM
Spot on there. The one themes in some of the quarterly, half and full year results were they would .. "keep pumping out those dividends in much the same way as we have over the last 10 years"

Looking at the results their EPS has dropped significantly. I don't think many people will fall for Profit is up 27% rev 77% when earnings per share has dropped well below the previous dividend payout.Its only up because they acquired farm-side which were not in their financial results the last year. Now even paying 15c per share is quite tight.

TTK is a good company , will be looking to re enter once I can see growth is back on track.


Looks like the re entry will be delayed..