Panoramic Resources - PAN [was Sally Malay]

[miner]

There is an old locked thread of mine from when these guys were starting up,they were around 20c at the time so have done ok,anyway as none of you mining nutters:D have posted on them thought I would as could be worth a look for more upside.

http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?ARCHIVE=true&TOPIC_ID=13379&SearchTerms=smy

Cheers
Miner

[tricha]

The big question Miner, do you still hold this 9 bagger[?]

Unbelievable really, any nickel company\cum producer and much the same results!

Cheers [B)][}:)]

[miner]

Um no I dont[B)],just thought would post on it as no one had and someone may be interested in it once they see it,did ok today too.

The bigger question though is do you go prospecting(metal detector) as you live in the middle (a bit north of you a tad better) of some good gold country???.

Cheers
Miner

[tricha]

Well Miner - I did and I did not find one piece of gold. I found heaps of tin cans, nails, bullets .etc. I survived a year in Kal, some 45 degree days, a great learning experience.
But hey at least I had a good beer afterwards at the Exchange hotel
(Skimpy Heaven)

Moved on since then and work for, wait for it, a Sons of Gwalia operation.

Quote from Warren Buffet - if you invest in a stock, learn the business, yeah the mining Business that is.

Cheers

[SEC]

quote:Originally posted by tricha

The big question Miner, do you still hold this 9 bagger[?]


11-bagger now, SMY up 18% in the two days since Miner brought the old thread to our attention.

Great Midas touch Miner - any other gems to dig up from the locked archives???

SEC

[miner]

Sorry for the late reply Sec,got busy with other stuff,if I find any other old one's that look ok will post on them,I see smy has done ok since I last posted on it,and meo has been slowly creeping up was 46c when posted on that but as usual unless you post heaps of info on it then no one takes any notice.

Cheers
Miner

[Harry7]

Article in today's AFR - elevation of SMY into ASX200 from 2nd March '07 should add impetus to it's SP

[Jay]

Not much said about Sally recently- apart from the cursory mention under other shares[?]
SP seems to be bobbing around not going very far.
Although I do notice the OBV still rising and it is still above a 34 day EMV since mid January.
BGI became a substantial shareholder on 4th May 5.03% - maybe due to Sally going into the ASX 200?

I bought in a little later than some e.g Mr Macdunk :)
Still holding as I think there is more left yet, just taking a breather [?]

[Dazza]

SMY has had a good few days of late, up nearly 20% from the lows of $4 of last week.

[tricha]

Cheap as chips.

Bought more 1st thing today[:p]

Anyone worked out how many tons they did this last quarter [?][?][?]

I did [:p]

Re-rating out soon ;)

[Dazza]

up strong today afta hitting lows of 3.45ish

i have price target of $9 for both mcr and smy in 2009 - that is using a price of USD 15/lb for nickel

IGO i have target of 11 for similar period

[stolwyk]

Upgrading of resource estimates

95% RESOURCE CONVERSION FOR INITIAL DEACON RESERVE OF 43,000 NICKEL TONNES

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/aa602b7f6e6d0205d5831c3f599a6d27/ASX-SMY-372024.pdf


++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

SALLY MALAY PROJECT – RESOURCE & RESERVE UPDATE
http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/50531e2520ba39c8a9408a029e229714/ASX-SMY-372047.pdf

Extract:
Sally Malay Mining Limited (ASX Code: SMY) is pleased to announce an updated Measured and Indicated Mineral Resource of 2.83Mt at 1.73% Ni, 0.80% Cu and 0.09% Co for 48,940 tonnes of contained nickel between the 100 and 500 faults. The Company is also pleased to announce an increased Probable Ore Reserve for the corresponding Resource area of 2.79Mt at 1.32% Ni, 0.61% Cu and 0.07% Co for 36,800 tonnes of contained nickel.
Since mining commenced in 2004 the Sally Malay Project has produced 1.9M tonnes of ore grading 1.22% Ni, 0.53% Cu and 0.06% Co for 23,200 tonnes of contained nickel from an initial Reserve of 53,000 tonnes of contained nickel.

This reserve increase represents an increase of 7,000 tonnes of contained nickel or an additional year of mining from the original resource area.
A summary of the total Sally Malay Mineral Resource above a 0.5% Ni cut-off, as at 30 June 2007 is shown in Table 1"

[Dazza]

anyone know when the full year results are out?

[stolwyk]

Last year, in Sept.

I hold this stock.

Gerry

[Dazza]

yeah i had just checked

i have sold smy to buy jbm

[tricha]

yeah i had just checked

i have sold smy to buy jbm

Thanks for the cheap shares Dazza.:)

Lets face it, Sally Malay are one of the lowest cost producers in the business and due to get lower.

Now into Deacon ore.

example 30 Metres @ 4.5% nickel

5 Metres @ 9.68 %

Potential for extensions for 2.5 mt @ 3% for +80,000 tons of contained Nickel

The width is excellent, so they just rip it out in bulk.
(Unlike say Mincor, who has to chase narrow ore bodies, high cost. Although this could change with Durkin etc) ( or AGM width also but very low grade)

So if JBM is worth $15 I'll hazard a guess, SMY should be worth $7.50 ????

[shasta]

Thanks for the cheap shares Dazza.:)

Lets face it, Sally Malay are one of the lowest cost producers in the business and due to get lower.

Now into Deacon ore.

example 30 Metres @ 4.5% nickel

5 Metres @ 9.68 %

Potential for extensions for 2.5 mt @ 3% for +80,000 tons of contained Nickel

The width is excellent, so they just rip it out in bulk.
(Unlike say Mincor, who has to chase narrow ore bodies, high cost. Although this could change with Durkin etc) ( or AGM width also but very low grade)

So if JBM is worth $15 I'll hazard a guess, SMY should be worth $7.50 ????

Tricha

I've got SMY on watch as my Nickel stock, & also looking at JML, you still got those?

Opinion on it for 2008/09?

SMY, like PEM meant to be the 2 most volatile ASX200 stocks...NICE

[tricha]

Shasta - "SMY, like PEM meant to be the 2 most volatile ASX200 stocks...NICE"

Yep, worked out SMY the cheapest nickel play on the market ;)

[Dazza]

NP tricha

but with all due respect, we have gone over the production costs of various Ni Producers, and SMY is one of the most expensive.

That is the reason why i have sold it for the likes of IGO and JBM instead.

So stop harping out that it is a low cost producer, face the facts it is not.

I have posted the costs of the producers when you had asked me for it in the nickel thread.

Regards

[macduffy]

Results due out today, according to Macquarie Equities.

[Dazza]

Cash Costs (A$/lb) 8.07 (4Q06) 14.18 (3Q07) 14.73 (4Q07)

from huntleys which is higher than my sources, i think i had aorund AUD10-12/lb cost

[tricha]

Sorry Dazza - look for the cash costs per ilb at mine gate, u have got your wires crossed, remember the likes of Mincor give BHP around 33 % of all their nickel produced,for smelter charges.


I guess SMY do it for Lanfranchi



Cash on hand at the end of the quarter was $120 million and receivables relating to concentrate sales amounted to
$21 million,
giving a total of $141 million in short term liquid assets at the end of the quarter.



Financial Statistics
Table 2 – Sally Malay Project Financial Statistics
Area Units 3 months ending
30 June 2007
3 months ending
31 Mar 2007
2006/07
Full Year
Nickel Produced lbs 4,299,670 3,990,759 17,660,064
Mining Costs A$ per lb 2.03
Milling Costs A$ per lb 0.93
Concentrate Haulage A$ per lb 0.18
Administration A$ per lb 0.72
Less Capitalised Site Costs A$ per lb (0.66)
Total Cash Cost at Mine Gate A$ per lb 3.20




NP tricha

but with all due respect, we have gone over the production costs of various Ni Producers, and SMY is one of the most expensive.

That is the reason why i have sold it for the likes of IGO and JBM instead.

So stop harping out that it is a low cost producer, face the facts it is not.

I have posted the costs of the producers when you had asked me for it in the nickel thread.

Regards

[tricha]

Cash and receivable increase to over $140M

Forgot to mention on top of paying of debt.


! All senior bank debt and Jinchuan subordinated debt repaid in full and ahead of schedule

Also forgot to mention all this hedging :D


Currency - total US$98.9 million US$0.7512

Anyway u look at it, its out there and even the dickhead :eek: brokers agree on this one.

[stolwyk]

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/ba2a482a9c82edce096a4c9ec72a21f0/ASX-SMY-374357.pdf

[Dazza]

u are quite rite tricha

SMY does say around $3

However looking back at all broker reports and coverage, they state actual cash costs around the $7 per pound mark.

MCR - yes they are up there round $7/lb

only IGO/JGM cash costs are under $5

im hacked off for selling SMY at 3.62 as i thought their accounts announcement was out in late september, not in august!

Im just bunkering up the portfolio with a bit of cash... in case of impending falls in the market.

I should have got the paterson review from monday earlier, they said that SMY would report this week and with a 12c divi bugger

oh well

Im bullish on NIckel, and i believe all Nickel stocks will do well!

[tricha]

Sally Malay has been the quiet achiever :rolleyes: and under the radar.

We can't win them all Dazza.

Records galore for Sally Malay (http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=117390&sectionsource=s0)
(Thursday, 30 August 2007)


http://media.aspermont.com.au/images/thumbnails/80px_tnsallymalaymine.jpg (http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=117390&sectionsource=s0)IT HAS been a record past 12 months for nickel miner Sally Malay Mining which reported a 454% boost to its net profit after tax and looks forward to increased production of contained nickel to over 20,000 tonnes this financial year. (http://www.miningnews.net/storyview.asp?storyid=117390&sectionsource=s0)

[tricha]

Sally Malay Mining Limited

• SMY will report its FY results next Wednesday 29th August.

• $94M FY07 NPAT: Having produced 11,898t of contained nickel for the year we
believe SMY.s FY07 NPAT will come in at $94M. A weaker nickel price since
June 30 and stronger A$ have taken some shine off the result.

• Debt free: Except for $13M in equipment leasing SMY is debt free.

• 12c dividend: We believe SMY will declare a maiden dividend of 12cps with
next weeks FY result keeping it inline with its fellow Kambalda operators (IGO
and MCR).

• SMY trading at a 22% discount to our $4.71/sh price target: Having updated
our nickel price and production forecast our price target has dropped slightly to
$4.71/sh.

Lanfranchi JV site visit

• Following our site visit to Lanfranchi at Diggers we are forecasting 14,100t of
contained nickel for SMY in FY08. With production at Sally Malay operations
steady around 8,000tpa growth is being driven by Lanfranchi which should see a
57% increase in production yoy to 6,100t.

Upcoming exploration

• Lanfranchi JV: Drill testing of extensions to all underground orebodies,
including Deacon is underway and we eagerly await results from the more
speculative testing of the overturned contact of the northern tramways dome.

• Sally Malay: Having recently added 1 year mine life above the 500 fault drilling
of the Sally Malay Deeps has the potential to add significantly to the operation.s
life. It gets underway later in the year. A real value driver for SMY remains fully
utilising the extra +200ktpa capacity of the 100% owned Sally Malay plant.

[stolwyk]

http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/f3141498bb76f86d9b9d5a6c4dc5382d/ASX-SMY-374401.pdf

[Huang Chung]

I followed your lead Tricha and bought a few SMY today.

Been a big week buying COA, SMYand more PDZ. Probably now exceeded my borrowing limit, but I'll worry about that next week. :)

[tricha]

I followed your lead Tricha and bought a few SMY today.

Been a big week buying COA, SMYand more PDZ. Probably now exceeded my borrowing limit, but I'll worry about that next week. :)

Good one Huang, obviously you must have done some homework, what is your view on them ???

Its amazing how we can fall in love with a company and let something as good as Sally Malay slip under the radar.:rolleyes:

[shasta]

Good one Huang, obviously you must have done some homework, what is your view on them ???

Its amazing how we can fall in love with a company and let something as good as Sally Malay slip under the radar.:rolleyes:

SMY closes at $4.03 (up 22c)

As per ASB Securities = P/E 6.9 (Current EPS 58.1, Div 12c, Yield 3%)

EPS forecasts for 2008/2009 = 62.8c, 86.4c

P/E: 2008 = 6.4 2009 = 4.7

Div's: 2008 = 22c, 2009 = 21c

Yield: 2008 = 5.5%, 2009 = 5.2%

Lots of upside & around $4 = Shasta wants in :D

[Huang Chung]

Its amazing how we can fall in love with a company and let something as good as Sally Malay slip under the radar.:rolleyes:

Yeah Tricha, sometimes you just need a few of the planets to align before the penny drops. Wish this particular penny dropped a few days earlier, and it wouldn't have cost me as much.

Absolutely right how you can become a bit myopic and focus on a few of your little darlings, whilst being blind to everything else out there. My portfolio was down to 5 stocks with PDZ and VML accounting for about 75% of the value, so I've been looking to spread the risk a touch....probably more window dressing than any meaningful diversification though. ;)

[whiteheron]

I have been giving SMY a good look over the last week or so and I must say I am pretty impressed

The only thing that I am a little in doubt about is the comparitive cost of production( with say MCR)
SMY seems on the face of it to be a low cost producer but from reading this thread there seems to be some disagreement on this
We must be sure that we are comparing like with like and I am not sure that this has been the case

Any comments will be appreciated

[shasta]

I have been giving SMY a good look over the last week or so and I must say I am pretty impressed

The only thing that I am a little in doubt about is the comparitive cost of production( with say MCR)
SMY seems on the face of it to be a low cost producer but from reading this thread there seems to be some disagreement on this
We must be sure that we are comparing like with like and I am not sure that this has been the case

Any comments will be appreciated

My research & rather basis understanding of Nickel companies, is that SMY is one of the lowest cost producers?

P/E ratio shows its cheap as chips & a buy up to $4.50. :eek:

Should be a $5 stock sooner rather than later! :cool:

[tricha]

I do see any disagreement WhiteHeron.

SMY has got so many things going for it, heres a few.

SMY has Basically only 2 mines to operate.
MCR has 8 mines to operate.

* Hence low cash costs to the gate.

* Also huge upside as they ramp up to 20,000 tons +.

* Ten year life

* Huge exploration upside

* Grades are over width

* .5 % CU at Sally Malay

* currency hedging 100 million @ .74 OZ

* no major player, so take over potential ( Maybe even ZFX who stated they want a Nickel exposure )

Happy investing :)

[Dazza]

i still have MCR and IGO waiting to buy JGM they are my 3 horses for nickel

in the end , if nickel is bullish again, no matter what all stocks will go up.

SMY - the 20t thing, i tink MCR is going to do it 1 year faster.

yeah we all know about hte mine gate cost thing

but what about smelter charges etc etc

see thats the thing eh, even the brokers dunno what they doing

like whiteheron says we need to compare like with like

if SMY is as a low cost producer that it is, then how come it aint higher up in price? How come its still at a similar PE to MCR et al

it does beg to differ.

Tricha is right in saying mine gate costs, but im adament hes wrong that SMY is the cheapest Ni producer

think about it fellas

JBM and IGO makes only 8k tonnes of nickel a year yet records still 100 mill around that ball park figure of net profit

however MCR and SMY has to produce 12k tonnes of nickel.....

just htink about it fellas...

when i have time ill go thru it properly

how many tonnes produced to make how much profit

think on it guys DYOR!!

[tricha]

You are quite correct Dazza, Western Areas will be the cheapest producer.

But only if they are true to their word. We will find out in six monthes.

But at the moment Sally Malay is doing it!

[tricha]

Hey Dazza

I've just completed my review of Nickel Producers.

Sorry to say Sallay Malay will come up trumps. Every which way u care to look at it. ( in the near term, 6 monthes ) up 16% in a week :D

Why, do your own re search :p

And jeepers this is a bit of a worry, nearly hold as many different shares as u. When I owned MCR I had about 4. :confused:

Now own

Oil = ARQ, BPT, DLS, GOG, NWE, NZO ( 1 to sell ) fair to say, it is akin to picking a horse at the races.

Minerals = ADY, AUZ, GDM, PEM, SMY , TRO ( 1 to question )

2 Zinc
1 Lithium & Iron Ore
1 mixed
2 Nickel

P.S leave no stone unturned :rolleyes:

[Huang Chung]

No straight U stocks Tricha??

...and back into BPT I see.

[shasta]

Hey Dazza

I've just completed my review of Nickel Producers.

Sorry to say Sallay Malay will come up trumps. Every which way u care to look at it. ( in the near term, 6 monthes ) up 16% in a week :D

Why, do your own re search :p

And jeepers this is a bit of a worry, nearly hold as many different shares as u. When I owned MCR I had about 4. :confused:

Now own

Oil = ARQ, BPT, DLS, GOG, NWE, NZO ( 1 to sell ) fair to say, it is akin to picking a horse at the races.

Minerals = ADY, AUZ, GDM, PEM, SMY , TRO ( 1 to question )

2 Zinc
1 Lithium & Iron Ore
1 mixed
2 Nickel

P.S leave no stone unturned :rolleyes:


Hmmm seems we a fair bit in common with our stocks.

Does GDM via UNX provide you with enough Uranium exposure?

BMN & WHE look useful?

[Dazza]

JBM
8633 tonnes of Ni produced - $173 million profit
Cash costs AUD5.14/lb or USD 4.05/lb

IGO
9825 tonnes of Ni produced - $105 million profit
Cash costs AUD4.50/lb

SMY
11920 tonnes of Ni produced - $88 million profit
Cash costs AUD3/lb - AFTER CREDITS

**** ME!!!!!!!!! I DIDNT KNOW THEY BLOODY PRODUCED COPPER AND COBALT AS WELL, so no wonder their costs are so low cause u take into account THE AFTER CREDIT THINIGE.

I was still right that pound for pound costs - SMY was one of the most expensive producers, however since it also producers Copper and Cobalt... it takes into account the credits - bugger me mate - Similar to what JML i guess with Zinc/Copper - they have like USD17 cents costs /lb AFTER the copper credits to produce 1 lb of Zinc lol

MCR
12917 tonnes of Ni produced - $101 million profit
Cas costs - AUD6.59 / lb


Oh well, it was silly of me to sell too early of SMY , i didnt need the cash did i! oh well, if i had only used / seen their cash costs after credits, instead of just straight cash costs.

Oh well

I had held 3:1:1 ratio of MCR:SMY:IGO anyhow

Now im 2:1:2 ratio of MCR:IGO:JBM

Either way, if Ni goes up, ALL Ni companies will bounce.

Anyhow Tricha, its good to see that your bullish in Nickel once again

PS i sold out of my AGM :D lol

[Dazza]

Lol Tricha , owning so many shares now eh!!!

Its a sad sad sight hahah

Im trying to concentrate my share holdigns haha

At least i have under 20 companies........ at one stage i was at 33 different companies.. ekkkkkkkkk!

[Huang Chung]

I think you need to add JBM to your signature block Dazza. :)

[shasta]

Lol Tricha , owning so many shares now eh!!!

Its a sad sad sight hahah

Im trying to concentrate my share holdigns haha

At least i have under 20 companies........ at one stage i was at 33 different companies.. ekkkkkkkkk!

Wow - i thought i was too diversified at 10 companies (back to 5 now)

Have learnt to try & pick just one or two stocks to cover the base metals & not double up to much.

Dazza - Thanks for the per lb cost comparison too, confirms what i thought, that SMY & JML are cheap (even if its due to the credits)

[duncan macgregor]

It dousnt matter about cost per pound to produce or PE values of a company. The only thing that matters is that they run at a reasonable profit and the produce trends up. Nickel doubled in value the shares followed suit, nickel dropped in price the shares followed. Nickel gained 9% last week the DOW finished on a high your bloody nickel shares go up on monday whatever they are. It is all very simple to work out throw that calculator away its not required. Macdunk

[shasta]

It dousnt matter about cost per pound to produce or PE values of a company. The only thing that matters is that they run at a reasonable profit and the produce trends up. Nickel doubled in value the shares followed suit, nickel dropped in price the shares followed. Nickel gained 9% last week the DOW finished on a high your bloody nickel shares go up on monday whatever they are. It is all very simple to work out throw that calculator away its not required. Macdunk

Yup i agree to some extent, the DOW was up & base metals in general were up, so am expecting a good day on the ASX tomorrow.

Disagree about not crunching the numbers though, P/E & costs per lb etc give us a useful measurement for comparison against there mining peers.

Some Nickel companies will benefit more than others & it never hurts to cover all bases!

[tricha]

Duncan - "It does not matter about cost per pound to produce or PE values of a company."

Sorry Duncan, that is a totally flawed reason and I totally agree with Shasta there. You want the best. Lowest P\E, lowest costs, best management, the best.


The object of this game is to find the best in each field, lets say Nickel producer.
I've settled on SMY for many reasons and expect it to double in price, good start last week up 16%. AUZ is a wildcard, gambling stock.

The best Zinc producer, PEM. TRO is my wildcard gambling stock.

The best oil producer, that's impossible, hence I have 6 different ones to cover the odds. They are all gambles.

The best Lithium stock, ADY and its the only one on the ASX, ouch that's a gamble as well.

The best multi-metals stock ?? Ouch I've got GDM. and yes Huang and Shasta thats my only U play.

So that's my view on the best today. Everyone to their own.


Ouch, Ouch, Ouch looks like I've got a major gambling problem.:(

[whiteheron]

Macdunk

I am afraid that I do not agree with you on this one, especially for long term holds

I agree with Tricha and Shasta that F A is important
If you can get companies with top management and favourable FA then I believe that you increase your chances of success especially in the medium to long term
Why buy rubbish when there are many good companies out there ? --- it just takes a bit more time to track them down

[duncan macgregor]

WHITEHERON. I am not saying that doing the fundamentals is unimportant. All i am saying is the the share price follows the nickel price up and down in unison regardless of fundamentals. Today the share price will rise on most nickel miners regardless of company fundamentals. The nickel price is on the rise the dow was up on friday the perception in the market other than a sudden surprize is everything is on the up and up. I sold my nickel stocks when the market reached its peak left half the ammount in at no cost to myself to stick under the bed. I am now other than that sticking to medium to long term trading which is much more profitable. I expect SMY, MCR, AUZ, AGM to rise 2% today i am betting on it. AGM is the best long term hold in my opinion at todays price. AUZ might be a bolter with its high grades. SMY and MCR will follow the price of nickel up. If the DOW takes a hit stuff the fundamentals be the first to sell . Its no point holding a share all the way up only to hold on to it all the way back. Money where the mouth is as usual so give me heaps when i make a wrong call. Macdunk

[whiteheron]

Macdunk

I am pleased to see that we agree that fundamentals are important

I take your point about share prices moving with the price of commodities
The market always seems to take a very short term view --- a lot of following like sheep and down under following the northern hemisphere markets of the night before

I must say that the recent semi collapse was pretty non discriminatory, share prices being hammered regardless of fundamentals
Funny things markets but opportunities are there in times of panic if you can read what is happening
Unfortunately I failed to act when I should have and so gave up reasonably significant potential gains
I am presently thinking seriously about this so that I will be better placed in future
and will probably start a new thread on this

[duncan macgregor]

Hope you do start a new thread white Heron. The herd is inclined to stampede when the dog barks next door.
Fundamentals are as useless as tits on a bull when the herd is in full flight. You have to keep close watch on commodoty prices which fundamentally are more important to the share price than the actual fundamentals of the company. If the company is in profit has money in the bank then the only fundamentals to get concerned about is what is happening over the fence. Its very simplistic but works as i have proved to myself. Macdunk

[duncan macgregor]

It dousnt matter about cost per pound to produce or PE values of a company. The only thing that matters is that they run at a reasonable profit and the produce trends up. Nickel doubled in value the shares followed suit, nickel dropped in price the shares followed. Nickel gained 9% last week the DOW finished on a high your bloody nickel shares go up on monday whatever they are. It is all very simple to work out throw that calculator away its not required. Macdunk Well its monday morning with the market just opened so lets see if there is any substance to what i have predicted. AGM up 5% on opening MCR up 4.2% on opening SMY up 5.2% on opening and last but not least AUZ up 4.3% on opening. How is that for fundamentals they all go up in unison because of outside influences which has very little to do with individual company fundamentals. Lateral thinking will earn you more on the market than having the ability to read last years out dated ballance sheets. Macdunk

[Dazza]

duncan

my thoughts are similar to urs

if u tink nickel is bullish, then MOST IF NOT ALL NICKEL PRODUCERS WILL DO WELL.

its like saying the 4 banks? which is better etc etc? in the long run they will all perform similar.

so when comparing all Ni western australian producers- u will see that int he long run they will perform just as well

SMY - producing 20k

MCR - doing the same


IGO - a bit different with 30% in gold

etc etc

obviously u cant compare WSA and AGM yet as they aint producing

[macduffy]

True, in the short term, but over time the better quality company will perform better than the average. eg the varied performance of the 4 banks over the last several years.

Disc. small holder in SMY and MCR because I can't decide which is best!

[upside_umop]

what site do you use for nickel etc prices duncan?
thanks in advance.

[Huang Chung]

I think you'll find WSA are now in production Daz.

[duncan macgregor]

what site do you use for nickel etc prices duncan?
thanks in advance. Direct broking get into markets scroll down punch into nickel, it takes you in to commodoties charts. I use direct broking for news, charts super charts etc for free. I deal with ASB securities. Macdunk

[shasta]

what site do you use for nickel etc prices duncan?
thanks in advance.

Upside a must for all base metals fans...

http://www.kitcometals.com/

[tricha]

Hope you do start a new thread white Heron. The herd is inclined to stampede when the dog barks next door.
Fundamentals are as useless as tits on a bull when the herd is in full flight. You have to keep close watch on commodoty prices which fundamentally are more important to the share price than the actual fundamentals of the company. If the company is in profit has money in the bank then the only fundamentals to get concerned about is what is happening over the fence. Its very simplistic but works as i have proved to myself. Macdunk


Duncan - "TRICHA, I to appreciate your posts big type and all.:D
The only question I have is why do you rush about like an over swung pendulum?. The market moves a lot slower than you seem to think, it all takes time to move to the next phase. You never jump off a band waggon until the music stops, or you risk being left behind half way up the hill. The market is going to be a bit shaky hang on in or get left behind. Macdunk"

A bit of a contradiction Duncan ? or have u learnt that the metals market moves extremely fast ?
It pays to get off before the music stops, as u do not want to be left holding the parcel :o

[duncan macgregor]

Upside a must for all base metals fans...

http://www.kitcometals.com/ SHASTA I agree on kitcometals .com is a must for mining investors. Direct broking site gives you that one if you press on to nickel prices. It gives you all the announcements charts, super charts, even candlesticks and a selection of moving averages. It also gives you up to date money rates and overseas market levels updated on the hour. I find it is the one site that i use the most even although i am not a custimer and get it all free. Direct broking site click on to markets you will find the lot on that if you click in to everything. I get it all for nothing i deal with ASB Securities. Macdunk

[whiteheron]

Here is another useful site for charts, especially if you want commodity prices in AUD
Well worth a look --- trendline is useful

http://www.infomine.com/investment/metalschart.asp?c=silver&u=oz&x=aud&r=1y&submit1.x=28&submit1.y=10

[shasta]

SHASTA I agree on kitcometals .com is a must for mining investors. Direct broking site gives you that one if you press on to nickel prices. It gives you all the announcements charts, super charts, even candlesticks and a selection of moving averages. It also gives you up to date money rates and overseas market levels updated on the hour. I find it is the one site that i use the most even although i am not a custimer and get it all free. Direct broking site click on to markets you will find the lot on that if you click in to everything. I get it all for nothing i deal with ASB Securities. Macdunk

Same here Macdunk, im with ASB Sec, but Direct Broking leaves them for dead, even though it was me that badgered ASB Sec into improving there graphs & research area!

I use a multitude of websites to gather info...:cool:

[macduffy]

Merrill Lynch has initiated coverage of SMY with Buy-High Risk, expecting re-rating "as company grows its production levels."
Relatively low hedging for 2008 & 2009 and therefore high exposure to spot Ni price seen as a plus. Not too sure about that?

Disc: small holding as part of ~20/30 Aust/NZ stocks.

[macduffy]

Citi has called SMY " the cheapest nickel company in its universe"!

Disc. small holding, looking to buy more.

[stolwyk]

Latest: +18 to $5.10

[stolwyk]

Ex div: Wednesday, 26 Sept

Record date: 3 Oct.

Payment on 15 Oct: 12 cents/share

Currently: $4.91

[stolwyk]

17 Sept: LANFRANCHI DRILLING HITS HIGH-GRADE MASSIVE NICKEL SULPHIDE ZONE

LANFRANCHI PROJECT – LANFRANCHI OREBODY EXTENSION


http://sa.iguana2.com/cache/59f673852749b7810d4e470106331d99/ASX-SMY-376383.pdf

[stolwyk]

Rose 8.5 percent

[Dazza]

due to t/o from xstrata for JBM

my beloved JBM taken over already ><

i hadnt finished buying man!

mind u i aint selling, i want AUD30 per share be4 i sell up.


now what other Ni producers to buy....

[gisborne_gold]

SMY up 75c and 15% to 5.65 today so far on high volume.

[OldRider]

Did a search for a JBM thread, but no result, seems odd, so will post here:

I did a quick calc on JBM
for a buy of 5,000 shares on 6 December 2002 price then A$1.45 NZ$1.65
cost NZ$8,240.05
dividends received since then NZ$12,662.28

selling at current takeover price - gone higher on market.

A$115,000 NZ$137,527.80 at latest crossrate

IRR over this period 85.87&#37;. To find something with
the potential to repeat this will be a major problem.

[duncan macgregor]

SMY up 75c and 15% to 5.65 today so far on high volume. I dont think its a company thing i think its a commodoty in general price correction. SMY up 12.2%. IGO up 11.7%. MCR up 6.6% AGM up 5% and AUZ up 2%.
All the nickel stocks are trending today so far long may it continue. Macdunk

[stolwyk]

There is a dramatic shortage of good nickel.

And SMY will now become a prime takeover project, given time.

[macduffy]

There is a dramatic shortage of good nickel.

And SMY will now become a prime takeover project, given time.

Let's hope so - and MCR!

Disc: SMY/MCR

[fihr]

AGM has the highest concentrate in the world. But due to their deal with Jinchuan, a takeover is probably unlikely.

MCR - maybe. Hope so!

Look at all the nickel producers' prices today! And they are still cheap by world standards. More TO's of Australian producers is inevitable unless they are priced higher. Sub prime just gave it a breathing space.

Disc: MCR/AGM/JBM

[shasta]

AGM has the highest concentrate in the world. But due to their deal with Jinchuan, a takeover is probably unlikely.

MCR - maybe. Hope so!

Look at all the nickel producers' prices today! And they are still cheap by world standards. More TO's of Australian producers is inevitable unless they are priced higher. Sub prime just gave it a breathing space.

Disc: MCR/AGM/JBM

PAN (formerly SMY) announces 2008/09 forecast tonnage accepted by customers, from the Lanfranchi project...

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=419981

[macduffy]

It would have been bad news if BHP had refused/been unable to accept the increased tonnage.
The problem is the price of nickel, of course.

Disc: Holding PAN - now a " long term investment".

:o

[soulman]

I reckon OZL is getting punished for their wasted $780 mil on AGM. AGM would be worth jagg right now, maybe at 30 cents.

Tough time for nickel producer right now.

[shasta]

I reckon OZL is getting punished for their wasted $780 mil on AGM. AGM would be worth jagg right now, maybe at 30 cents.

Tough time for nickel producer right now.

PAN - Company Update (Targetting 20kt Nickel over next 10 years)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=420444

[SEC]

Why is PAN, a half decent nickel producer getting smashed more than the others?

Yeeeeeees you guessed it, Barclays.

Barclays are conducting yet another fire sale of a resource stock - selling PAN at sub $2 after accumulating throughout 2007 at $5+. Unfortunately they have another 8% holding to go.

SEC

[shasta]

Why is PAN, a half decent nickel producer getting smashed more than the others?

Yeeeeeees you guessed it, Barclays.

Barclays are conducting yet another fire sale of a resource stock - selling PAN at sub $2 after accumulating throughout 2007 at $5+. Unfortunately they have another 8% holding to go.

SEC

Once they have sold out at the bottom, they might be worth a look!

They are still killing the MRE & ABY share price!

[SEC]

I reckon OZL is getting punished for their wasted $780 mil on AGM. AGM would be worth jagg right now, maybe at 30 cents.

Tough time for nickel producer right now.

Not so sure that AGM would have been trashed as hard as the producers. I've been amazed how some of the nickel developers have been more resilient than the producers - look at WSA & MBN - they're trading at 2010/11 PE multiples (when they're expected to be in full production) far in excess of established producers. This doesn't make sense.

However when one looks at their share registers it makes a bit more sense. They have cornerstone shareholders and a relatively tight registry compared to most of the producers which have loose registers and significant holdings by o'seas speculative and hedge funds. AGM also had cornerstone shareholders.

SEC

[shasta]

Not so sure that AGM would have been trashed as hard as the producers. I've been amazed how some of the nickel developers have been more resilient than the producers - look at WSA & MBN - they're trading at 2010/11 PE multiples (when they're expected to be in full production) far in excess of established producers. This doesn't make sense.

However when one looks at their share registers it makes a bit more sense. They have cornerstone shareholders and a relatively tight registry compared to most of the producers which have loose registers and significant holdings by o'seas speculative and hedge funds. AGM also had cornerstone shareholders.

SEC

PAN - Lanfranchi Reserves Upgraded ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=421347

[shasta]

PAN - Lanfranchi Reserves Upgraded ;)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=421347

PAN - Letter to Shareholders/Sept Quarterly highlights

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=424375

I'm watching PAN in case Nickel makes a another run

[macduffy]

A nice profit upgrade from PAN.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100203/pdf/31nj0fp2mfklwq.pdf

Follows a similar recent upgrade from MCR. Better Ni prices of course than the previous year.

[macduffy]

PAN's SP up over 5% today.

A good profit result, firmer Ni prices and slightly lower LME warehouse Ni stocks are all coming into play.

http://www.infomine.com/investment/charts.aspx?mv=1&f=f&r=3m&w=wnickel_lme_warehouse#chart

[shasta]

I'm going to do some number crunching among the Ni producers, so far i've got MBN, WSA, MCR, MRE, KZL & PAN.

Any primary Ni producer i've missed? (I don't want any explorers!)

I know KZL isn't really a Ni play, but it has some linkage to WSA

[macduffy]

Independence Group - IGO - is the other significant producer.

Smaller than PAN or MCR, which I follow, but reputed to produce at a lower cash cost.

I'll certainly be interested in your conclusions!

Cheers

[shasta]

Thanks Macduffy

I've got plenty of spare time at the mo, & will attached the spreadsheet comparison when done, hopefully tonight.

I'm looking for the "cheapest" overall Ni producer, using EV/JORC resource, Market Cap/Production + Gross Margin %

If i get motivated i may apply the same criteria across other metals!

[drillfix]

Hi guys,

Any chance on someone changing the name of the thread to the correct code?

I know it has become something else but I keep forgetting which every time I see the thread title :P

[macduffy]

Hi guys,

Any chance on someone changing the name of the thread to the correct code?

I know it has become something else but I keep forgetting which every time I see the thread title :P

Any chance of anyone knowing how to do this?

Or does it need a request to the administrator?

Edit. I've now asked admin for "how to" instructions.

[Jay]

It has been done now mac d

Only the originator of the thread or admin can change the title I think

[drillfix]

Correct and good one Jay.

For those who started a thread, just double click next to the title of the thread (not the title itself hyperlink) and then it will be editable.

[macduffy]

And a good day for PAN.

SP up 7.8% on news of increased reserves, including first numbers for the new Savannah Lower Zone.

[macduffy]

Here's a view from Barclays on the prospects for nickel miners.

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=077A5C03-048F-4264-64F9F1CFDDE8AA28

[shasta]

PAN has come up pretty good thus far on my comparison spreadsheet, but having issues with adobe pdf files though, so wont have the sheet ready until tomorrow.

Are Barclays really that good an indicator, they got copper & zinc wrong big time!

[macduffy]

PAN has come up pretty good thus far on my comparison spreadsheet, but having issues with adobe pdf files though, so wont have the sheet ready until tomorrow.

Are Barclays really that good an indicator, they got copper & zinc wrong big time!

Well, they're just another opinion.

Note that the Barclays technical analysts differ from the Barclays fundamental analysts on the subject!

[shasta]

MCR & PAN looking good, just need to factor in there hedging into the spreadsheet & i'll post it tomorrow.

Can't find any detailed cash cost estimates for MBN & there anticipated 26,000Tpa Ni, grrr

[macduffy]

Meanwhile, PAN's SP up almost another 10% so far today!

[COLIN]

Meanwhile, PAN's SP up almost another 10% so far today!

Happy to be a holder - thanks to having it brought to my attention on this forum. Thanks, fellows. The global nickel metrics look most encouraging.

[shasta]

Meanwhile, PAN's SP up almost another 10% so far today!

The summerized results of my very unscientific & basically wild assumptions

On an overall EV/EBITDA calculated basis, in order of "best implied value" (ignoring hedging/assuming "net nil")

1. MCR
2. PAN
3. WSA
4. MRE
5. IGO
6. MBN

In order of largest forecast FY10 production (+ FY11 Production Growth %age, FY11/10)
1. WSA (+40)
2. MRE (0)
3. PAN (0)
4. MCR (+44)
5. MBN (+148)
6. IGO (0)

Since i started the spreadsheet Monday, these 6 companies have all gone up, so the Nickel sector is seemingly picking up.

I won't add the spreadsheet into the post, as it's too flawed to put on "show". (Similar style to my old PNA spreadsheet)

Those who would like it emailed, please PM me your email

[macduffy]

Hi, shasta.

Pleased to see my PAN and MCR heading the EV/EBITDA stakes! I made the mistake a few years ago of treating these Ni producers as long term investments instead of the strongly cyclical stocks which they patently are! I'm only now starting to come back into the money on PAN with a bit more to go on MCR.

The good news is that they have both managed to pay (reduced) dividends during the down period. A testament to their strong managements, quality resources and operations and sound balance sheets. Both companies now boast big cash balances and strong operating cashflows.

This time I'll be employing a bit of TA to nudge me out before the cycle turns too far - I hope!

Re your comparison exercise. I presume it wasn't possible to take account of the value of other mineral interests? I'm taking a particular interest in IGO these days as their Tropicana gold jv with AngloGold Ashanti enters the Feasibility stage.

[shasta]

I eliminated KZL out of the comparion as Ni is not there main meal ticket.

Re IGO, there non Ni projects arent in production, so were ignored, i only used there Ni details to compare, so yeah there is upside in those companies with other promising projects.

PAN was $2.03 when i started compiling the list & it's rise has seen MCR eclipse it (only just!).

WSA & MBN have substantial debt which counted against them when calculating an EV.

Why i liked MCR was there potential Ni production growth from 12,500tpa FY10 to 18,000tpa in FY11

[macduffy]

I eliminated KZL out of the comparion as Ni is not there main meal ticket.

Re IGO, there non Ni projects arent in production, so were ignored, i only used there Ni details to compare, so yeah there is upside in those companies with other promising projects.

PAN was $2.03 when i started compiling the list & it's rise has seen MCR eclipse it (only just!).

WSA & MBN have substantial debt which counted against them when calculating an EV.

Why i liked MCR was there potential Ni production growth from 12,500tpa FY10 to 18,000tpa in FY11

Yes, both MCR and PAN have the ability to ramp up production when the PoN justifies higher volumes.

MCR have had the Miitel mine under care and maintenance since mid 2009. PAN have the Copernicus JV (60% PAN) on c and m.

I see that Ni had another good day - up 1.84%. I'm keeping a close eye on the PoN and particularly on LME warehouse stocks, which although down a bit are still at historically high levels.

[shasta]

Yes, both MCR and PAN have the ability to ramp up production when the PoN justifies higher volumes.

MCR have had the Miitel mine under care and maintenance since mid 2009. PAN have the Copernicus JV (60% PAN) on c and m.

I see that Ni had another good day - up 1.84%. I'm keeping a close eye on the PoN and particularly on LME warehouse stocks, which although down a bit are still at historically high levels.

Given THX owns the other 40% of Copernicus, & is primarily a Uranium exploration company (with some of the best grades in Australia!), is this really a core asset, you'd have to say no!

PAN can grow significantly by buying THX's share, which inturn would fast track there Uranium projects, so it's a win-win?

Proviso being the Ni price remains above $US10/lb ($US22,000/t), & they can maintain cash costs below $US5/lb.

Am going to look more indepth into MCR, PAN both cashed up & debt free & pay dividends

[macduffy]

Copernicus isn't as good a mine as PAN's Savannah and Lanfranchi operations - they bought out the minority partner in Lanfranchi a year or two ago - so I wouldn't think they'd be in any hurry to buyout THX.

The time to get the best bargain would be to wait for the next bottom in the PoN cycle.

[macduffy]

PAN have released a "Corporate Update Presentation" today.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100305/pdf/31p334th7z82xp.pdf

[h2so4]

PAN looks great value.
PAN sure is one fat cat and getting fatter by the day. PoN headed in one direction, dare I say it uptrend........... aargh
The huge crash in price from $65000t to just under $15000t post GFC has now rebounded to $30000t, companies like PAN and MCR
are now sitting on amazing assets with high cashflows. Market cap of $540m and $126m in cash......no debt....things are now very much in favour for further growth in cashflows. :)

[macduffy]

I hold PAN but watching the PoN closely. It's looked a bit toppy in recent days although LME warehouse stocks continue to fall.

Having held PAN through the ups and downs of the last couple of years I don't intend to go on that ride again. Nickel stocks aren't meant to be long term holds, IMO.

[h2so4]

PoN could fall for a number of reasons, increased supply, contracting economies, rising dollar, same as all commodities. In the meantime though PAN is making a bucket load of cash.

[macduffy]

PoN could fall for a number of reasons, increased supply, contracting economies, rising dollar, same as all commodities. In the meantime though PAN is making a bucket load of cash.

Yes, not a major worry at present but a sustained fall in the PoN would quickly translate to lower profits for PAN and a lower SP.
I'm planning not to be there when it does.

[h2so4]

Cash and rec. now up to $139m after paying $20m div. Sweeet

http://www.panoramicresources.com/files/100428_Quarterly_to_Mar_20101.pdf

[h2so4]

Cash and rec. now up to $139m after paying $20m div. Sweeet

http://www.panoramicresources.com/files/100428_Quarterly_to_Mar_20101.pdf

It's funny how a falling share price makes you re think your investments. In PANS case profits up and share price down. Of course there is the Henry report but of more concern is PANS link to the PoN and I can find nothing either short term or long term to keep the PoN at current prices. Sure PAN will keep making money and lots of it even with a falling PoN, that was my thinking, but for how long? Uncertain cashflows would soon be reflected in the sp. So I'm out today, with a loss. I'll put it down to a dumb decision due to creative thinking.

[shasta]

It's funny how a falling share price makes you re think your investments. In PANS case profits up and share price down. Of course there is the Henry report but of more concern is PANS link to the PoN and I can find nothing either short term or long term to keep the PoN at current prices. Sure PAN will keep making money and lots of it even with a falling PoN, that was my thinking, but for how long? Uncertain cashflows would soon be reflected in the sp. So I'm out today, with a loss. I'll put it down to a dumb decision due to creative thinking.

Perhaps before you walk away from PAN, ask yourself:

1. Why did i buy this in the first place? (What was your entry price?)
2. What was my exit strategy? (this should be established before you buy)
3. Did you run a stop loss/trailing stop loss?
4. Did you use any TA in your decisions, or follow any indictaors?
5. Did PAN fail to meet your preset criteria, ie not following Nickel news etc

This could all help you not make the same mistake again

Here's the 12 month chart, notice the volume drop off

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PAN&exchange=ASX&period=1Y&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=30&ma2=180&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

Here's the 3 month chart

https://www.directbroking.co.nz/cgi-bin/sparkle.dll/superchart?template=dblsuperchart&session=0&instrument=PAN&exchange=ASX&period=3M&adj=yes&vs=LINE&ct=CANDLE&compi=&ma1=10&ma2=30&bb=&ind=RSI&ra=2

[h2so4]

Amazing how a combination of events can pan out.

PoN down $5000mt
Henry Tax
Contracting economies

A falling PoN means any cash flow or asset valuation could be way off.

Still PAN looks like a steal at yesterdays close $1.98.

[macduffy]

I agree that PAN looks to be good value at current prices but can only see the SP going lower while current conditions persist.

I no longer hold PAN - or MCR - but have them on watchlist for the next upturn.

[Dr_Who]

Alot of resource stocks are looking undervalued, but as you say Mcduffy, the concern is further weakness in China and Euro could push commodities prices lower.

I am assuming the Chinese will start to make further T/O offers in Aussie resource sector if prices erode further and when there is clarity of the resource tax.

[tricha]

Amazing how a combination of events can pan out.

PoN down $5000mt
Henry Tax
Contracting economies

A falling PoN means any cash flow or asset valuation could be way off.

Still PAN looks like a steal at yesterdays close $1.98.

I stole someones today, could not resist. Cash costs extremely low @ US 5.18lb, nickel @ US 9.7779lb, OZ dollar falling will offset falling metal price,
lots of cash in the bank, top management.


GROUP

�� Safety - One LTI was recorded during the quarter, LTIFR
increased from 4.1 to 5.1

�� Cash and receivables - increases to $139 million ($159
million before $20 million in dividend payments)

�� Costs - Group payable cash costs of US$5.18/lb Ni

�� Group Production - 4,314t Ni, up 6% on previous qtr

[macduffy]

Brave call, tricha.

I've learnt my lesson that the nickel stocks are classic cyclicals and I don't think that the cycle's bottomed yet.

Will be good buying at the right time.

[soulman]

Good luck to you Tricha but the market is so fragile at the mo, it's scary. Traders are scare to do anything but LT investor should be looking for entry soon in any oversold stock like PAN.

[h2so4]

Yes indeed. I'm with you on this one tricha.

I note cap ex. are well down, about half the norm. It seems they invested in so much cap ex through the GFC. Now PAN is creaming it and the lower AUD makes it better.

[tricha]

Brave call, tricha.

I've learnt my lesson that the nickel stocks are classic cyclicals and I don't think that the cycle's bottomed yet.

Will be good buying at the right time.

Thanks folks for your thought, just had a look at a broker review, not that they are right much, but it backs up my research. When the tax on mining is rebuked, add 50 cents straight away.:)

http://www.panoramicresources.com/files/100429_PAN_-_UBS.pdf


+61-2-9324 3844

Global Equity Research

Australia
Mining

12-month rating Buy

Unchanged

12m price target A$3.40/US$3.12

Unchanged

Price A$2.55/US$2.34

RIC: PAN.AX BBG: PAN AU

29 April 2010

Trading data (local/US$)

52-wk range A$3.09-1.51/US$2.60-1.11

Market cap. A$0.52bn/US$0.48bn

Shares o/s 204m (ORD)

[shasta]

Thanks folks for your thought, just had a look at a broker review, not that they are right much, but it backs up my research. When the tax on mining is rebuked, add 50 cents straight away.:)

http://www.panoramicresources.com/files/100429_PAN_-_UBS.pdf


+61-2-9324 3844

Global Equity Research

Australia
Mining

12-month rating Buy

Unchanged

12m price target A$3.40/US$3.12

Unchanged

Price A$2.55/US$2.34

RIC: PAN.AX BBG: PAN AU

29 April 2010

Trading data (local/US$)

52-wk range A$3.09-1.51/US$2.60-1.11

Market cap. A$0.52bn/US$0.48bn

Shares o/s 204m (ORD)


Tricha

I did a spreadsheet comparison of the Aussie Nickel producers, i'll update it tomorrow & post the new findings

PAN & MCR came out tops last time

[shasta]

Tricha

I did a spreadsheet comparison of the Aussie Nickel producers, i'll update it tomorrow & post the new findings

PAN & MCR came out tops last time

Since i last updated the Nickel Producers spreadsheet early March, the share price performances have been:

WSA -18%
MBN -3%
MCR -13%
MRE -16%
PAN -21%
IGO -2%

Best value based on a calculation of EV/EBITDA (& factoring in production growth)

Best Value = PAN
Tied 2nd = MCR/WSA

[tricha]

Since i last updated the Nickel Producers spreadsheet early March, the share price performances have been:

WSA -18%
MBN -3%
MCR -13%
MRE -16%
PAN -21%
IGO -2%

Best value based on a calculation of EV/EBITDA (& factoring in production growth)

Best Value = PAN
Tied 2nd = MCR/WSA

Thanks for that Shasta, yes I'm sticking with PAN, back to being cheap and oversold, MCR would be my next best, WSA has the most potential, but debt!

PAN

1 - no debt to talk about.
2 - lots of cash. 139 million
3 - low cash cost per ilb. $5.18 ilb US
4 - excellent management.
5 - making good coin as we speak.
6 - A lot of in ground Nickel ( production on target 20,000 tons for the next 10 years )
7 - Expect this quarter to be a ripper, with nickel up, OZ dollar down and maybe a production increase.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-6m.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#6months)

[h2so4]

In the PAN again. Excellent value.

[macduffy]

Agree the value's there, h2, but do you think the SP's bottomed yet or is today just a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?

[h2so4]

Agree the value's there, h2, but do you think the SP's bottomed yet or is today just a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?

Well you know what they say. "Dont pick up pennies infront of a bulldozer.":)

[tricha]

Agree the value's there, h2, but do you think the SP's bottomed yet or is today just a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?

They are still way to cheap.

196.5 https://ost.asbbank.co.nz/images/up_triangle_green.gif24.5

[macduffy]

Good call, tricha!

I'm back in today.

[h2so4]

Good call, tricha!

I'm back in today.

Agree macduffy, but do you think the SP's bottomed yet or is today just a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?:confused:

[macduffy]

Agree macduffy, but do you think the SP's bottomed yet or is today just a case of a rising tide lifting all boats?:confused:

Good question.

The PoN's still a bit wobbly but the continued fall in LME warehouse stocks is encouraging.

Fairly tight trailing stop in place, just in case.

[h2so4]

Good question.

The PoN's still a bit wobbly but the continued fall in LME warehouse stocks is encouraging.

Fairly tight trailing stop in place, just in case.

Cancel your trailing stop, instead think of any fall in sp as an opportunity, but watch out for the bulldozer.:D

[Phaedrus]

This 6 month chart compares the performance of the 6 nickel producers discussed in this thread with the SP500 Index.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Nickel528.gif

[STRAT]

This 6 month chart compares the performance of the 6 nickel producers discussed in this thread with the SP500 Index.

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Nickel528.gifHi Phaedrus. Not so great eh but all tradeable. Any chance you could add the PON to that chart. Im guessing all those companies which have all performed in a similar way are following the PON.

On a completely different note,
Would you care to comment on my somewhat brave and most recent post on the All Ords thread. Im over due for a bit of a kicking I reckon :D

[Phaedrus]

http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/tt102/PhaedrusPB/Nickel528.gif


Hi Phaedrus. Not so great eh but all tradeable. Any chance you could add the PON to that chart. Im guessing all those companies which have all performed in a similar way are following the PON.

On a completely different note, would you care to comment on my somewhat brave and most recent post on the All Ords thread? Im overdue for a bit of a kicking I reckon
Unfortunately I am unable to add Nickel to that chart - no can do.

Your AllOrds post does not warrant any corporal punishment, Strat.

Masochist :- "Kick me".
Sadist :- "No!"

[STRAT]

lol. It was my second to last post actually ( in case you missed it ) that I thought might require some level headed and rational commentary.

ps no M or S or should that be S&M for this boy :scared:

[h2so4]

I've got my 3D glasses on P but nothings leaping out at me.

[STRAT]

Hi H2,
A few things leap out for me.

First that all these stocks have similar performance and second they have all performed worse than the S&P index over the period.

Most important though. They out perform the index on the way up so if you were to trade the trends instead of buy and hold you would do OK

[h2so4]

Wouldn't you expect them to all perform similar. We are all talking about "similar" Nickel shares on this thread.

I will sell when it goes above my value, or below my margin of safety. (active investor) Na it wasn't on P's list.

Looks like a good time to sell, according to the chart, is when it goes above the S&P line. There are some %'s on the far right, like way off the screen. What is that measuring?

[STRAT]

Wouldn't you expect them to all perform similar. We are all talking about "similar" Nickel shares on this thread.

I will sell when it goes above my value. (active investor) Na it wasn't on P's list.

Looks like a good time to sell looking at the chart is when it goes above the S&P line. There are some %'s on the far right, like way off the sreen. What is that measuring?
I should probably read the thread but I wouldnt expect these companies to be so close. Perhaps they are all goodins. If the thread has been comparing Nickel Stocks then I suspect that is why Phaedrus posted the chart in the first place but I may be talking out of turn.

The % is gain or loss from the start point on the far left.

As to selling above the S&P line. Reckon not. That reference point is a moving target depending on the time frame. ( This comparative chart will always start em all off from one fixed point at the start of the chart regardless of time frame )

You could certainly use the S&P trend as an indicator to entre or exit your nickel stocks but I doubt it would be optimal. You can often apply that to most stocks in any case.

[h2so4]

OK thanks strat.

[macduffy]

Am I mis-reading something or do PAN and MCR track the identical path?

I would expect them to be closely correlated but this is uncanny - or what?

[shasta]

Am I mis-reading something or do PAN and MCR track the identical path?

I would expect them to be closely correlated but this is uncanny - or what?

I saw the same thing when i did my Nickel analysis, they were pretty much neck & neck on the fundamentals

[tricha]

Am I mis-reading something or do PAN and MCR track the identical path?

I would expect them to be closely correlated but this is uncanny - or what?

Maybe its to do with this. Blackrock investment management who are holders of both. And that why T\A does not apply to these stocks, its more a case of Geeko, if u know what I mean. Oh and tight stop losses on these stocks will get u burnt, Blackrock will see to that.


Notice of change of interests of substantial holder

[h2so4]

I saw the same thing when i did my Nickel analysis, they were pretty much neck & neck on the fundamentals

I got that to, but looking at the 1/2Y, PAN looked better.:)

[shasta]

I got that to, but looking at the 1/2Y, PAN looked better.:)

PAN slightly edged MCR in my comparison, & has a bit more production, so yeah i'd have picked PAN ahead of the other Nickel producers

[COLIN]

PAN slightly edged MCR in my comparison, & has a bit more production, so yeah i'd have picked PAN ahead of the other Nickel producers
Agree. I hold both, but decided that PAN was the preferable one to add to.

[tricha]

WELL folks I would have liked to have stayed in for the long term, but the picture is in reverse mode, hence I take a small profit and I run. Such is the nature of this market.
Now after the big fall on the DOW, I might be buying back cheaper come Monday. Might ? and might not.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-30d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#30days)

[shasta]

WELL folks I would have liked to have stayed in for the long term, but the picture is in reverse mode, hence I take a small profit and I run. Such is the nature of this market.
Now after the big fall on the DOW, I might be buying back cheaper come Monday. Might ? and might not.

http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-30d.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#30days)

PAN - News Release

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=496806

Around $160m cash, confimed production of 17,600t Ni 2009/10, forecast production of 18,000 -19,000t 2010/11

Looking to maintain dividend payments (March 2010 paid 5c + special dividend of 5c)

Reasonable exploration budget too

[h2so4]

PAN - News Release

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=496806

Around $160m cash, confimed production of 17,600t Ni 2009/10, forecast production of 18,000 -19,000t 2010/11

Looking to maintain dividend payments (March 2010 paid 5c + special dividend of 5c)

Reasonable exploration budget too

Backing my assumptions on free cash flow I am predicting an excellent 2H.

Still holding although I did duck out for a SIP:)

[macduffy]

Backing my assumptions on free cash flow I am predicting an excellent 2H.

Still holding although I did duck out for a SIP:)

And the quarterly report confirms that.

Good gains on hedging. Cash and receivables up 14% over the previous quarter to $158m.

Expect a good divvy at next profit report.

[shasta]

And the quarterly report confirms that.

Good gains on hedging. Cash and receivables up 14% over the previous quarter to $158m.

Expect a good divvy at next profit report.

PAN - Presentation at Diggers & Dealers Conference

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=500430

[macduffy]

A spike in PAN's SP, on high volume, has prompted a "please explain" from the ASX.

PAN replies with the usual "we know nothing".

Probably just expectation of a good profit.

[h2so4]

Dumped out today.

Excellent Y10 result still showing high cash yield but I am nervous about NP and future over supply.

[shasta]

PAN - USB Australian Resources & Energy Conference

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=545425

Great overview of PAN's projects, incl a high grade Gold project & well funded for further Nickel exploration to increase there resource base & like MCR they are also looking for other non Nickel projects

[tricha]

PAN - USB Australian Resources & Energy Conference

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=545425

Great overview of PAN's projects, incl a high grade Gold project & well funded for further Nickel exploration to increase there resource base & like MCR they are also looking for other non Nickel projects

Oh PAN are a far superior company compared to Mincor. I could not help myself, I dipped in today!
This quarters profit should be great and add it to the 136 million cash they hold. Should clear 150 million.

1 - Cash costs much lower

2 - Output very much higher.

3 - They are a copper producer, ha, I bet most people overlooked this!:eek2:

4 - Jinchuan off take for Savannah, better than a BHP deal.

Savannah Mine only!mmary

Mining Open stoping with paste fill

Processing 1.0Mtpa Crush, SAG, Float

Current Production ~7,500t Ni, 4,500t Cu, 400t Co per year

Life Ore Reserves to 2018

Offtake Contracted to Jinchuan until 2020

[macduffy]

You may be right on this, tricha but the market thinks otherwise with PAN on an historic P/E of 6.72, MCR on 14.92. But PAN trades on a lower (historic) dividend yield for some reason. PAN 6.3%, MCR 9.1%.

Maybe it's the more proven nature of the Kambalda nickel area where MCR has all its mines, whereas PAN is split between Kambalda (Lanfranchi) and the Kimberley ( Savannah).

I didn't realise that the Jinchuan offtake agreement for Savannah was more favourable than what both PAN and MCR enjoy with BHP at Kambalda. What is the essence of this?

[drillfix]

3 - They are a copper producer, ha, I bet most people overlooked this!:eek2:



Why do you say that?
IMO, of course people would already know of them being a copper producer, I would have thought this was common knowledge.

Actually I had bought PAN at 33c and then sold and then again bought at 40c years ago.

Looking back I wish I never sold them but that's just the way the cookie crumbles and so too, so such as life :)

[tricha]

You may be right on this, tricha but the market thinks otherwise with PAN on an historic P/E of 6.72, MCR on 14.92. But PAN trades on a lower (historic) dividend yield for some reason. PAN 6.3%, MCR 9.1%.

Maybe it's the more proven nature of the Kambalda nickel area where MCR has all its mines, whereas PAN is split between Kambalda (Lanfranchi) and the Kimberley ( Savannah).

I didn't realise that the Jinchuan offtake agreement for Savannah was more favourable than what both PAN and MCR enjoy with BHP at Kambalda. What is the essence of this?

From memory IGO and MCR were locked into a BHP offtake deal, when they bought the mines of BHP, I think PAN was in the same boat with Lanfranchi ( from memory a few years back)
From memory a Jinchuan offtake agreement is on much more favourable term, than a BHP one.

[stevo1]

From memory IGO and MCR were locked into a BHP offtake deal, when they bought the mines of BHP, I think PAN was in the same boat with Lanfranchi ( from memory a few years back)
From memory a Jinchuan offtake agreement is on much more favourable term, than a BHP one.
chart looks terrible

[tricha]

chart looks terrible

Depends if u have shares or not, whether they look great.

They look like a steal from where I am sitting. Their cash costs are pretty low and production ramping up, I knew they produced copper as a byproduct, but I did not realise just how much. Same as the the Cobalt, that is very rewarding as well. Their hedging will be hugh positive.

http://www.panoramicresources.com/files/PAN_RQ_May11.pdf


Excluding the nickel puts and assuming the sold nickel call options are all exercised the company is ~ 32% hedged in FY’11 and 29% hedged in FY’12
and 6% hedged in FY’13..

[gazprom1]

chart looks terrible

The charts do look terrible but I am with Tricha - it depends whether you are a buyer or a seller. I had a look through some material last night and I am thinking that it is beginning to look cheap. They are focussed on ramping production and keeping costs under control. Love that they have a massive cash stash. Downside is beginning to look limited. IMO it may be time to borrow Trichas truck=)

Gazprom

[shasta]

The charts do look terrible but I am with Tricha - it depends whether you are a buyer or a seller. I had a look through some material last night and I am thinking that it is beginning to look cheap. They are focussed on ramping production and keeping costs under control. Love that they have a massive cash stash. Downside is beginning to look limited. IMO it may be time to borrow Trichas truck=)

Gazprom

Definitely looks a good "fundamental" buy, up 8c today closing at $1.73.

The cash & listed investments certainly gives some comfort, & the internal growth target from ~18kt Ni to 25kt p.a certainly looks feasible & the 5.5kt Cu, & 0.4kt Co certainly lowers the cash costs.

PAN is 1 of the 4 stocks im looking at with a fundamental mid term (min 2 years) time frame, edging out MCR as the exposure to Nickel

[stevo1]

Definitely looks a good "fundamental" buy, up 8c today closing at $1.73.

The cash & listed investments certainly gives some comfort, & the internal growth target from ~18kt Ni to 25kt p.a certainly looks feasible & the 5.5kt Cu, & 0.4kt Co certainly lowers the cash costs.

PAN is 1 of the 4 stocks im looking at with a fundamental mid term (min 2 years) time frame, edging out MCR as the exposure to Nickel

Fundermentaly can only agree BUT if the market tanks (which is looking more likely by the day IMO) then like most everthing will be affected )0?

[shasta]

Fundermentaly can only agree BUT if the market tanks (which is looking more likely by the day IMO) then like most everthing will be affected )0?

I'd be more wary of increasing cash costs or a falling Nickel price than the general direction of the market, if the fundamentals stack up, any market weakness may present buying opportunities. PAN @ $1.73 has a dividend yield just over 6%, & showing a P/E of just 7

Quick scan shows WSA, MCR, & MRE all trading on P/E ~14, so PAN looks very cheap in comparison

A check of the 2 year chart shows around $1.60ish as the low, so was the bounce from $1.65 to $1.73 the turnaround?

3 & 6 month charts are terrible, but PAN looks oversold to me, however if it drops below $1.60 i have to go to a 3 year chart to see where the next of support level is, & failure to hold $1.60 & i'd sit on the sidelines & wait for the turnaround.

[tricha]

I'd be more wary of increasing cash costs or a falling Nickel price than the general direction of the market, if the fundamentals stack up, any market weakness may present buying opportunities. PAN @ $1.73 has a dividend yield just over 6%, & showing a P/E of just 7

Quick scan shows WSA, MCR, & MRE all trading on P/E ~14, so PAN looks very cheap in comparison

A check of the 2 year chart shows around $1.60ish as the low, so was the bounce from $1.65 to $1.73 the turnaround?

3 & 6 month charts are terrible, but PAN looks oversold to me, however if it drops below $1.60 i have to go to a 3 year chart to see where the next of support level is, & failure to hold $1.60 & i'd sit on the sidelines & wait for the turnaround.

Are u all blind or something.:confused:

Production, look at the numbers, so cash costs should stay low or decrease.

They can afford to, if the nickel price tanks, shut one mine down and cash in on the hedging, if :t_up:

Excluding the nickel puts and assuming the sold nickel call options are all exercised the company is ~ 32% hedged in FY’11 and 29% hedged in FY’12
and 6% hedged in FY’13

They have enough cash to ride out most things and this quarter will be good to them.:)

Management do not seem to make many mistakes.

And to top it all off they have a life insurance policy :eek2:

[tricha]

AMP are still at it, buying and selling. Dumping and pumping, manipuating the share price, I can see a change in holdings coming up again, AMP :confused:
A share buy back would be a good thing, especially with all this cash.


29th march Change in substantial holding from AMP (http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=535312), the list goes on,

[shasta]

PAN - Initial Helmut South Extension Resource of 7,080t Ni Contained

http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=546398

No, im not blind Tricha, i really like the looks of PAN, but if it follows the market weakness, i'll catch it on the way back up ;)

[drillfix]

Morning folks,

As requested by Gazprom here is a chart of PAN. Posting this here keeps this thread and content on track rather than discussing in other threads.

PAN Daily & Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/stv8zekragilupxtm28n_PAN-intraday.png

I cannot speak for the fundamentals except what Gaz has already said that PAN has a Dividend yield is 5.5% and it has been hammered and yet is cash flow positive and a growing war chest of funds.

Technically, like many stocks the chart shows it currently in a downtrend since approx Feb Mar 2011 this year.

It appears many have traded the dips and sold the peaks on the way down, yet these are testing markets as we all know so I guess anybody should take what they can get, when they can get it. (technically speaking).

The intraday gives me a good view of both 15 min and 60 minute chart to show me what side of a trade I should be on which right now, is on the sidelines where I have been off and on for quite some time, Although, the MACD histogram has just turned positive and the signal lines appear to be ready to cross in the negative side of the cycled which could potentially offer a short leg up for a duration of unknown time.

If the stock can break up ward of $1.38 and remain above there to make a new high and another higher low on the 60 min chart that would give incentive.

At some stage the daily MACD will also follow and if the price can test and break upward of the 13ema then a rally could offer some positive technicals to potentially test the higher 60 EMA which resides at $1.50 at present, which has not happened since Augs30 so at some stage this should happen again.

I have no weekly to give a longer term forecast however viewing the EMA's on the daily chart continually suggests the continuation to the downside remains in tack until otherwise shown different.

Well, that is my babble to go with my chart. Not a buy or sell advice just a neutral what may or many not happen technically commentary.

Cheers~!

[drillfix]

A nice break upwards which as previously mentioned should see $1.50 get tested.

Kinda kicking myself with this and a few other stocks, but Oh well cant be in all of them but some exposure would have saw many of you on the right side of the trade today anyway.

At present looking good and a nice spread with a few signals also being triggered.

[macduffy]

Yes, it was a strong day all round today. But PAN up 15.4% ?

Must be a good report due in a couple of weeks!

[tricha]

Yes, it was a strong day all round today. But PAN up 15.4% ?

Must be a good report due in a couple of weeks!

I do not think so, the nickel price will have severly affected their profit, they are still a good buy. But I'm sticking with WSA as my prefered nickel company, they are still coining it and will continue to
do so.
In the event of a world collapse, they will be the last man standing as far as earnings go.
PAN will be able to ride it out, with plenty of cash and no debt. But maybe not much income in a worst case scenaro.

[drillfix]

Morning folks,

As requested by Gazprom here is a chart of PAN. Posting this here keeps this thread and content on track rather than discussing in other threads.

PAN Daily & Intraday > http://www.imageurlhost.com/images/stv8zekragilupxtm28n_PAN-intraday.png


If the stock can break up ward of $1.38 and remain above there to make a new high and another higher low on the 60 min chart that would give incentive.

At some stage the daily MACD will also follow and if the price can test and break upward of the 13ema then a rally could offer some positive technicals to potentially test the higher 60 EMA which resides at $1.50 at present, which has not happened since Augs30 so at some stage this should happen again.


Hey Gaz,

Are you out there mate?

With regards to PAN, I think you will see the target of $1.50 getting hit within the next week or days as previously posted.

Hope all is well and catch up soon.

Cheers~!

[gazprom1]

Bought some more PAN today...seems to have been sold down aggressively. May be a little further to fall as has seen around $1.12 a couple of months back. Drivers for me is that they are cashflow positive, good dividend yield and can fully fund their gold project if required.

Gazprom

[macduffy]

May be a little further to fall

With the price of nickel around 12 month lows I'd say there's a good chance of that being the case.

Can't find it now, but one of the brokers recently put a BUY on PAN on the strength of their Gidgee gold project. I'll sit this one out.

[gazprom1]

With the price of nickel around 12 month lows I'd say there's a good chance of that being the case.

Can't find it now, but one of the brokers recently put a BUY on PAN on the strength of their Gidgee gold project. I'll sit this one out.

Gidgee looks really promising and gives PAN some diversification.


Agree with your sentiments....will look to buy more should it test that $1.10 and the year low of $106.5. They have cash and are still making money with Nickel at these levels.

Gaz

[macduffy]

It was UBS.

"
SHARE CAFE COMMENTARY

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PAN - UBS rates the stock as Buy
BY BROKER NEWS - 14/12/2011

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Get More Commentary, Dicussion & Market Information On -
• PAN - PANORAMIC RESOURCES LIMITED



--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The broker notes that the initial results from the Gidgee Gold Project, which Panoramic bough last January, look pretty encouraging. UBS expects further developments may start to unlock some value for the company.

Until then, the Buy call and price target are maintained.
Sector: Materials.

Target price is $2.70.Current Price is $1.33. Difference: $1.37 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 51% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- "

Don't know how they arrive at 51%. Looks more like 103% to me - unless it's a pa return over 2 years?

[h2so4]

It's a test, maybe the target price should be $2.07?

[gazprom1]

I see RBC have a target of $2.50/sh in their report and Deutsche at $1.61/sh.

Just re-read a couple of announcemtns and see that first results from Gidgee due late December....

[gazprom1]

No news out on their gold project - hope that doesnt mean anything. Sp touched $1.15 before going to $1.28 and finishing the week at $1.23 but didnt test the $1.12. Managed to buy some more while it was down. Should see some figures the week after next for the december quarter. It is currently my second largest holding so hope we get some positive news from the drill bit!!!!

Gaz

[gazprom1]

Price of Nickel has rebounded off their lows. $8.80lb from $8.00 a few weeks ago. 60 day chart looks great. PAN will be benfitting from the recovery in prices.

Announcement just out that have discovered another potential nickel bearing zone below current zones....seam seems to go on forever.

Continue to add.

Gazprom

[gazprom1]

Nickel $9.13lb - continues to drift up. PAN moving up slowly. Not sure what has happened to their gold drill results - due out a couple of weeks ago - hope there will be no nasty surprises.

Gazprom

[soulman]

No nasty's Gaz.....If it's bad, they don't release the result. Simple as that and also makes sense.

Nice picking Gaz.

[gazprom1]

No nasty's Gaz.....If it's bad, they don't release the result. Simple as that and also makes sense.

Nice picking Gaz.

Hey SM,

Sounds good to me. Nickel is at $9.25lb and the 60 day chart is outstanding. PAN is moving up nicely - would like to see a breakout over $1.40. Nice to be sitting on some profits...

Gaz

[tricha]

Hey SM,

Sounds good to me. Nickel is at $9.25lb and the 60 day chart is outstanding. PAN is moving up nicely - would like to see a breakout over $1.40. Nice to be sitting on some profits...

Gaz

Pan is copper as well. Moving into gold, they are back in play at these prices.



Copper
January 26,07:19




Bid/Ask
3.8611
-
3.8622


Change
+0.0461

+1.21%


Low/High
3.7891
-
3.8702


http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/arrow.jpgCharts (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/Copper.html)




http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/line_horiz.jpg


Nickel
January 26,07:19




Bid/Ask
9.7439
-
9.7766


Change
+0.1002

+1.04%


Low/High
9.5575
-
9.7775

[macduffy]

BHP to reduce output at Mt Keith on uncertain outlook for nickel. Production of refined product is expected to remain constant as they reduce stockpiles of ore.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/bhp-gears-down-nickel-mine-jobs-lost-20120201-1qsyg.html

[macduffy]

PAN making a bid for Magma Metals in which it already holds 9.34%.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120203/pdf/4244y0l9j15l72.pdf

An all-scrip bid.

[macduffy]

There's a small mention in the quarterly report to 31 December to the effect that directors are anticipating a Net Loss after tax of between $3m - $4m for the half to 31/12/2011. That probably accounts for the current SP weakness although yesterday's takeover bid announcement doesn't seem to have been well received, either.

[shane_m]

PAN vs MCR.

4009

[JBmurc]

Yes PAN must be near the bottom 65c seen valuations of $2+....good mix of PGM projects ,nickel on its way back up towards $8....but overall PAN costs to operate will be making a loss need the AUD to weaken...has some cash ,tax loss selling has to be affecting the SP
the sooner they get the gold/PGM projects going the better

[macduffy]

PAN attempts to explain the weakness in the SP.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120904/pdf/428hlrlbs5lxz1.pdf

Not the only miner to be feeling the heat at present!

[JBmurc]

Geez 46c mate holds a few overall looks good buying and well oversold ...


--from Etrade morningstar analyst-
Business Impact: Our fiscal 2013 earnings per share (EPS) forecast is unchanged at AUD 2.3 cents assuming nickel output of 17,200 tonnes and a nickel price of AUD 8.78 per pound. Our fiscal 2014 EPS forecast of AUD 6.8 cents assumes 17,000 tonnes of nickel production and an average price of AUD 9.74 per pound. No change to our AUD 1.30 per share fair value estimate. Long term assumptions remain AUD 10 per pound nickel and a 10% discount rate. The valuation includes AUD 35 million upside for the recently acquired gold and platinum projects – equivalent to AUD 14 cents a share. We estimate the nickel operations are worth AUD 1.10 per share with the remainder net cash and future administration costs.
No change to our AUD 1.30 per share fair value estimate.

[h2so4]

Not happy with valuation of $1.30. The NIP at 30th Aug was AUD $7.10. lb, demand and price are falling. Morningstars long term assumptions of AUD $10 lb is crystal ball gazing.

[tricha]

Not happy with valuation of $1.30. The NIP at 30th Aug was AUD $7.10. lb, demand and price are falling. Morningstars long term assumptions of AUD $10 lb is crystal ball gazing.

At this price I have dipped my toes, the whole operation is now valued at 20 million, - cash.

A fund manager dumping :confused:. good old AMP has been at it, it can produce some very discounted shares.

As far as the nickel price goes, the Chinese are destocking, same as 2008. It might last six monthes, then there will be another shortage as production slows. I expect PAN to start a big cost saving excerise, same as 2008.

If this metal drop does not recover, we can kiss goodbye to the whole ASX.

[JBmurc]

At this price I have dipped my toes, the whole operation is now valued at 20 million, - cash.

A fund manager dumping :confused:. good old AMP has been at it, it can produce some very discounted shares.

As far as the nickel price goes, the Chinese are destocking, same as 2008. It might last six monthes, then there will be another shortage as production slows. I expect PAN to start a big cost saving excerise, same as 2008.

If this metal drop does not recover, we can kiss goodbye to the whole ASX.

AMP dumping reminds me of MCR before it took off....

Well maybe not all metal producers i.e PM miners looking much better outlook than the base metal miners....PAN move into the PM metals a good move imho

[soulman]

AMP dumping reminds me of MCR before it took off....

Well maybe not all metal producers i.e PM miners looking much better outlook than the base metal miners....PAN move into the PM metals a good move imho

I just don't like the fact the cash on hand highlighted in the FY result of 79 mil. They should have the current ones of $46 mil in Aug D and D presentation or at least mention them. Quite misleading IMO.

Buy this right now is like catching a falling knife. I suspect more frenzy selling into the mid 30 in which I will put a small order in.

[tricha]

I just don't like the fact the cash on hand highlighted in the FY result of 79 mil. They should have the current ones of $46 mil in Aug D and D presentation or at least mention them. Quite misleading IMO.

Buy this right now is like catching a falling knife. I suspect more frenzy selling into the mid 30 in which I will put a small order in.

Cheers for this information Soulman, i have just read the report, they are misleading as you quoted.
They are threading water and the cash safety net is not enough, so I sold today and got my money back.

[h2so4]

Well spotted soulman. A bit odd they lumped in the receivables as cash. A nice bit of accounting trickery.

[JBmurc]

yes I'm not buying at this stage see how it plays out ....would like to see a higher nickel price and some more details on DFS on PM production

[soulman]

Well spotted soulman. A bit odd they lumped in the receivables as cash. A nice bit of accounting trickery.

Yeah, they include the receivables as liquid and never mentioned the $22 odd mil payables.

Just marvellous, deceiving execs.

[tricha]

Yeah, they include the receivables as liquid and never mentioned the $22 odd mil payables.

Just marvellous, deceiving execs.

I owe you a beer soulman, ploughed it staight into Mincor, I reread their finanicals, alls well.

[soulman]

I owe you a beer soulman, ploughed it staight into Mincor, I reread their finanicals, alls well.

No probs tricha. Definitely MCR is far superior than PAN, even with PAN attractive gold asset that might be too dear to develop. Although Ni prices will dictate their future movement.

Anyway, there are far more superior gold coy out there that are undervalued IMO like RDR and BNR (both with their processing plant under care and maintenance) and PXG.

MCR paying dividends signalled OK future. PAN cancelled their dividends for the first time signalled cash flow problem.

Other current abnormally in the stock market is that SIR is currently valued at $253 mil and have no processing plant or nickel/copper production whereas PAN and MCR have the goods and sales in place and getting the hammering. SIR has rockets from 6 cents to $1.50 in 6 weeks. You can't stop momentum.

[macduffy]

Yes, sure is an odd situation when SIR's MCap is higher than PAN and MCR combined! ( SIR $256m; PAN and MCR both around $113M).

I assume the punters realise that it''s Ni they're putting their money on when they bid up SIR's SP? I'll wait for a sign from the price of the metal before topping up, ie "averaging down", on MCR.

[winner69]

was thinking of my old mate stolwyk (sharetrade poster and ramper supremo and still remains one of the most prolific poster ever on sharetrader)

His last post before going to the great forum in the sky was in October 2007 and it was on this PAN thread

Maybe the shock of PAN hitting 6 bucks was just too much for old gerry .... and prob left this world with a smile on his face ...... but couldn't take his riches with him poor bugger

[macduffy]

Yes, sure is an odd situation when SIR's MCap is higher than PAN and MCR combined! ( SIR $256m; PAN and MCR both around $113M).

I assume the punters realise that it''s Ni they're putting their money on when they bid up SIR's SP? I'll wait for a sign from the price of the metal before topping up, ie "averaging down", on MCR.

SIR's latest drill results have encouraged speculators to push the SP to $4.85! An M/Cap of $1b !

Shades of Poesidon and Tasminex circa 1969! It's still only nickel that they're betting on, but ...........?

Well, maybe also some copper.

[soulman]

SIR's latest drill results have encouraged speculators to push the SP to $4.85! An M/Cap of $1b !

Shades of Poesidon and Tasminex circa 1969! It's still only nickel that they're betting on, but ...........?

Just amazing.....The power of herds/syndicate trading. It can only end in tears.

[h2so4]

.25-you can't pick up .5 cents can you? Nickel price under $15000- by my calculation thats less than the inflation adjusted price. Might be time to revisit PAN

[JBmurc]

.25-you can't pick up .5 cents can you? Nickel price under $15000- by my calculation thats less than the inflation adjusted price. Might be time to revisit PAN


4.2 million ounces of gold, platinum and palladium ....zero value added to the SP ...PAN like so many other a great longer term hold once some sanity comes back to the the sector

[JBmurc]

Tax loss selling keeping PAN well depressed ..got to be good buying with a longer term outlook ...latest presentation shows this with PAN going forward planning on having 300koz+ p.a of Gold,PGM along with their Nickel-cu production ....AUD weakening will add 2mill+ to PAN revenue for every cent it moves south (currently it's down some 8c to USD with a solid down-trend )

hope to get a few low as possible ....20-23c etc ....16c cash backing---
Masses of resources 5moz+ Gold/PGM

[macduffy]

PAN is now forecasting a net loss after tax of $37m for the June 2013 year, about double last year's.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130801/pdf/42hfsqmpzhnbz7.pdf

[macduffy]

PAN's September quarterly report has been released.

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131021/pdf/42k5kc3xm4l0tk.pdf

Best news is that the company is achieving a modest positive operating margin and that cash reserves have remained steady over the quarter at $45m.

[Daytr]

Shame the Nickel price is not allowing them to do well. They are good blokes & pretty smart to. Maybe a little too corporate for a company of its size, but I have always liked these guys. Used to see them regularly when I was in Perth & did a bit of nickel hedging with them. They were looking at some gold, how's that coming along? I can't see nickel improving too much & I told them as much 18 months ago when it was trading at $22k/tonne & I said hedge the bejeebers out of it. Too much nickel coming from pig iron out of China & will be for years to come imo.

[macduffy]

Thanks for your insights, Daytr.

Here's an update on the Ni miners - PAN seems the preferred play for any price increase in the metal.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-11/ANZNickelMiners311013e.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7289528&spUserID=NjkwMzY0MTE5ODUS1&spJobID=95703500&spReportId=OTU3MDM1MDAS1

[macduffy]

Capital raising " to accelerate exploration".

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20131105/pdf/42kn0prjt4jbh7.pdf

[tricha]

Thanks for your insights, Daytr.

Here's an update on the Ni miners - PAN seems the preferred play for any price increase in the metal.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-11/ANZNickelMiners311013e.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7289528&spUserID=NjkwMzY0MTE5ODUS1&spJobID=95703500&spReportId=OTU3MDM1MDAS1

Yes they are the preferred play for a price increase. I dipped in last week. I'm picking nickel has bottomed and PAN with its high tonnage will reap the benefits.

They could easily double.

Added bonus maybe today, trading halt.


http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=667746

[tricha]

Thanks for your insights, Daytr.

Here's an update on the Ni miners - PAN seems the preferred play for any price increase in the metal.

http://www.macquarie.com.au/dafiles/Internet/mgl/au/apps/retail-newsletter/docs/2013-11/ANZNickelMiners311013e.pdf?cid=&spMailingID=7289528&spUserID=NjkwMzY0MTE5ODUS1&spJobID=95703500&spReportId=OTU3MDM1MDAS1

You picked it Mac Duffy, I hope you got on board, I was not expecting this http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=PAN&E=ASX&N=667968
I was gambling the bottom of the nickel price had arrived. ( with all the mine closures)

[macduffy]

Hi, tricha.

Yes, I have a smallish holding but didn't add in the recent SPP at 27c! The SP is down 2.5c today but at 37.5c it's still a healthy gain on recent prices and , particularly, the SPP price. I'm still not convinced though that the PoN has bottomed and see this as the biggest issue for the company.

[tricha]

Hi, tricha.

Yes, I have a smallish holding but didn't add in the recent SPP at 27c! The SP is down 2.5c today but at 37.5c it's still a healthy gain on recent prices and , particularly, the SPP price. I'm still not convinced though that the PoN has bottomed and see this as the biggest issue for the company.

i bailed. May might be early this year.

Bailed others as well. To many zeros and not enough ones lining up.

[JBmurc]

i bailed. May might be early this year.

Bailed others as well. To many zeros and not enough ones lining up.

Wish I loaded up in PAN rather than some of the DOGs I've got of late ....current SP 59c end of 2013 could have loaded up low 20's

[JBmurc]

4.2 million ounces of gold, platinum and palladium ....zero value added to the SP ...PAN like so many other a great longer term hold once some sanity comes back to the the sector

And now it has <<<<<<<<Geez I need to follow my own picks

[Daytr]

Yeah its had a great run on the back of the rise in the Nickel price. Thinking it still may represent good value here even though it's more than doubled. I saw that BHP's nickel production was down considerably last quarter & I think it will take a little while for others to ramp up production if the Ni price keeps rising. The outlyiers are Russia particularly as they are under financial pressure & you never know how much metal they have available & the other is China with pig iron production, although you would think as China has been stockpiling there is little potential for domestic production to fill the gap. Still with an MC of only $190M & potential gold production down the track as well it may still be a good play.

And now it has <<<<<<<<Geez I need to follow my own picks

[macduffy]

Clutching at straws, perhaps, but there was a recent article - somewhere - about China spending some $millions to rehabilitate the 20% of its arable land that is said to be contaminated - the main culprits being arsenic, nickel and another metal. Less Chinese pig iron production in future?

[macduffy]

Another straw in the wind.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/qcg-picks-up-mmg-nickel-mine-for-40m/story-e6frg9df-1226885741206#

PS I accessed the full article via Google - Avebury nickel mine.

[macduffy]

The price of Ni continues to firm. Enough to encourage a small addition to my holding.

[macduffy]

Nickel in the news as BHP talk about divesting their Ni assets.

http://www.theage.com.au/business/bhp-nickel-selloff-spurs-demerger-talk-20140514-38a5x.html

[macduffy]

Bullish outlook for nickel from Citi.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/nickel-run-still-has-plenty-of-mettle-20140522-38q5t.html

[tricha]

Bullish outlook for nickel from Citi.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/nickel-run-still-has-plenty-of-mettle-20140522-38q5t.html

its worth a punt, highly leveraged with 20,000 tons produced a year

every dollar above $6.50 ilb x 20,000 x 2200 is pure profit.

Nickel the Devils metal and no one can predict the price.

[macduffy]

More bullish noises from the Ni mining sector.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/higher-nickel-prices-help-expansion-plans-20140530-3996t.html

[tricha]

More bullish noises from the Ni mining sector.

http://news.theage.com.au/breaking-news-business/higher-nickel-prices-help-expansion-plans-20140530-3996t.html

yes and if this article is right, PAN is worth double, but only if nickel stays up.:confused: And as we know ...................

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-04/nickel-gain-enables-bhp-to-anglo-to-sell-mines-real-m-a.html

[tricha]

A long time between drinks, PAN is back to printing money.

no debt
cash in the bank
High production at a reasonable price.

This from WSA reinforces it could be a good time to get back into the devils metal.

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=WSA&E=ASX&N=681002

[tricha]

Lets hope today's rise stays, unlike yesterday.

Their cash kitty is going up 10 million a month at the current nickel price.
so the p/e is pretty low, around 2.

they are fast closing in on Mincor, who produce well under half PANs production,

[macduffy]

I'm not sure that PAN are a good punt anymore, tricha, if the world is going to stop mining coking coal to make steel to blend with nickel to make stainless steel. If that happens, it won't be just the coking coal miners such as Bathurst that goes out of business!

Just kidding - I still hold a few PAN.

;)

[tricha]

I'm not sure that PAN are a good punt anymore, tricha, if the world is going to stop mining coking coal to make steel to blend with nickel to make stainless steel. If that happens, it won't be just the coking coal miners such as Bathurst that goes out of business!

Just kidding - I still hold a few PAN.

;)

The nickel companies have had their clean out, only the strong survived, along with MCR and WSA
either MCR is expensive or PAN is dirt cheap.

I'm picking MCR is still cheap and PAN is dirt cheap. With over two times the the leverage to nickel, PAN at these nickel prices is printing money again.
Now cash costs are about $4.64 AUS

realised cost at the moment in $US,


Nickel July 03,05:39
Bid/Ask 8.9140 - 8.9235

[macduffy]

Here's an article from The Age, quoting a Credit Suisse paper on the demand for nickel, vanadium and graphite for the manufacture of lithium batteries. Credit Suisse' pick of the Ni stocks though is Western Areas.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/theyve-got-the-power-battery-stocks-charging-up-analysts-say-20140702-zst1i.html

[tricha]

Here's an article from The Age, quoting a Credit Suisse paper on the demand for nickel, vanadium and graphite for the manufacture of lithium batteries. Credit Suisse' pick of the Ni stocks though is Western Areas.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/theyve-got-the-power-battery-stocks-charging-up-analysts-say-20140702-zst1i.html

I would have to totally agree with that one macduffy, WSA is a great low cost, high volume nickel company.

PAN is producing 22,000 tons of nickel and their leverage is also huge, to the recent price increases.
PAN also has no debt and a lot of cash.

Every month that goes by with nickel around $8 a ilb US, PAN is earning millions.
The next earning report will be very interesting.

The increase in the picture below is a big difference for this quarters income.


http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/base/spot-nickel-6m.gif (http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/nickel_historical_large.html#6months)

[tricha]

Time to lock in profit .

i am guessing PAN has for now peaked. The nickel price is dithering as well.
The LME stock piles are still increasing.

[tricha]

Time to lock in profit .

i am guessing PAN has for now peaked. The nickel price is dithering as well.
The LME stock piles are still increasing.

Nickel Prices Head for Longest Slump in Five Months
By Luzi Ann Javier Jul 19, 2014 4:03 AM GMT+1200 0 Comments Email Print
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Nickel prices headed for the longest slump in five months as inventories tracked by the London Metal Exchange rose to a record.

Stockpiles have climbed 19 percent this year to 311,088 metric tons, and open interest has dropped to a four-month low. Through yesterday, prices jumped 38 percent this year after Indonesia barred shipments of unprocessed ores, spurring concerns that supplies will trail demand.


“The LME stock rise reflects the reality that the global market remained in surplus during the first half of the year,” Macquarie Group Ltd. analysts, including Vivienne Lloyd in London, said in a report. “There’s no doubt to us that much of the rise in prices that took place up to May was speculative and anticipatory” of production deficits, they said.


Nickel for delivery in three months fell 2.9 percent to $18,635 a ton at 5 p.m. on the LME. A close at that price would mark the biggest decline since May 15. The metal dropped for the fifth straight session, heading for the longest slump since Jan. 30.


Copper fell 1.2 percent to $6,985 a ton ($3.17 a pound) in London after touching $6,960, the lowest since June 30. Aluminum, zinc, lead and tin also dropped.


On the Comex in New York, copper futures for September delivery dropped 1.3 percent to $3.178 a pound.


To contact the reporter on this story: Luzi Ann Javier in New York at ljavier@bloomberg.net


To contact the editors responsible for this story: Millie Munshi at mmunshi@bloomberg.net Patrick McKiernan, Joe Richter


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[Daytr]

Nice play Tricha !

[macduffy]

UBS upgrades PAN to BUY.

"UBS rates PAN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) - Panoramic's loss was in line with the broker's expectations. An improvement in year-on-year earnings led to a 2c per share dividend. The company has reiterated FY15 production guidance.
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and a pull back in the share price. The significant production profile means Panoramic has strong leverage to any nickel price movements. Target is steady at $1.00.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.205 If PAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY15 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.68.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.00, suggesting upside of 25.8%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.0."

From FN Arena.

[tricha]

UBS upgrades PAN to BUY.

"UBS rates PAN as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral (1) - Panoramic's loss was in line with the broker's expectations. An improvement in year-on-year earnings led to a 2c per share dividend. The company has reiterated FY15 production guidance.
UBS upgrades to Buy from Neutral based on valuation and a pull back in the share price. The significant production profile means Panoramic has strong leverage to any nickel price movements. Target is steady at $1.00.
Target price is $1.00 Current Price is $0.80 Difference: $0.205 If PAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 26% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY15 dividend of 7.00 cents and EPS of 17.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 8.81%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.68.
Market Sentiment: 0.7
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 15.8, implying annual growth of N/A.Current consensus DPS estimate is 5.3, implying a prospective dividend yield of 6.7%.Current consensus price target is $ 1.00, suggesting upside of 25.8%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 5.0."

From FN Arena.

today is a good price to buy, this quarter should see another 10 million added to cash.

[Joshuatree]

Spot price for nickel was $8.50 -$9 in sept, $7 now and can't see a floor atp.

[Joshuatree]

A lot of moving parts including scams and whether the Indonesian ban on Pig nickel will stay.

Kohler says:

Summary: The world’s biggest nickel producer and a number of investment banks believe the worst is over for nickel. Despite past price falls and a major fraud in metal financing, observers believe the market is now balanced. China is searching for a replacement of the raw material it lost after Indonesia banned unprocessed exports, and shipments from the Philippines are set to ease in coming months. Key take-out: If ANZ’s forecasts are correct, the nickel price could lift more than 50% to over $US11 a pound over the next 12 months. Key beneficiaries: General investors. Category: Commodities. Nickel, the metal which has given Australia some of its most exciting mining moments over the past 50 years, is shaping up for another period of intense news generation as pressure builds among international metal traders and local nickel-mining companies. Bankers can sniff the change coming, with normally cautious analysts at ANZ tipping a 50% increase in the nickel price over the next 12 months. Producers, including the world’s biggest, Russia’s Norilsk Nickel, say the market for the steel-hardening metal is balanced today but poised to surge higher. Market regulators, including the all-important London Metal Exchange, have reported highly unusual movement in nickel stockpiles, which indicates a significant shift in the way the metal is being stored and traded. Australia’s biggest producer of the metal, BHP Billiton, is trying to sell its WA-based Nickel West division but either can’t get the price it wants, or is hanging on for the forecast increase in the price of the metal to maximise the value of the deal. For investors, some shell-shocked by the collapse in the price of other minerals and metals, especially gold and iron ore, the suggestion of a nickel revival might be hard to digest. But that’s when it becomes important to remember what Hugh Morgan said in a Eureka Report exclusive two weeks ago (see Morgan: Base metals to rebound first): that it would be the base metals (copper, zinc, nickel and aluminium) which would lead the recovery in mining. The former head of Western Mining Corporation (WMC), the company which pioneered Australia’s nickel industry in 1966, warned that there was a tendency to view Australian mining through a narrow lens which focussed on iron ore and coal. “But we shouldn’t forget the base metals (copper, zinc, nickel and aluminium), and even gold,” Morgan said. That observation needs repeating because of the recent sequence of events that are dramatically changing the nickel market, although with one action cascading over the next it has become difficult to see the overall trend. Figure 1: Nickel spot price, past 12 months To get a better understanding of what’s changed in nickel consider this sequence of game-changing events: Ten years ago, an earlier nickel boom forced Chinese steel mills to find additional sources of nickel to produce stainless steel. They invented a new trade in unprocessed, low-grade ore, shipped from Indonesia. Dubbed Nickel Pig Iron (NPI), the new material quickly flooded the market, killing the nickel price which plunged from $US12 a pound to $US6/lb. Last year, the Indonesian Government said it would ban the export of unprocessed ore. At first, the threat was dismissed as political posturing, but the ban has been introduced and the trade is almost dead. At the same time as the ore-trading ban was coming into effect two other things happened. The price of nickel shot up from $US6/lb to $US9/lb, and a major fraud in “metal financing” was uncovered in the Chinese port of Qingdao where different banks discovered that they had been making loans secured by the same stockpile of metal. As the fraud was unravelled and ownership of stockpiled metal sorted out the nickel market was plunged into more uncertainty by the unexpected delivery of close to 100,000 tonnes of nickel metal into warehouses managed by the London Metal Exchange. The “new” metal represented a 35% increase in LME stocks which rocketed up from around 280,000 tonnes to 380,000 tonnes, a flood of metal which was met by a corresponding fall in the nickel price, back to around $US7.30/lb. Today, there is a growing realisation that the metal delivered to the LME is not new metal. It is the metal being shipped out of fraud-riddled Qingdao. Because of the Chinese metal-financing fraud, and because nickel is a metal which has always had a second-tier and less transparent set of stockpiles (such as those kept by steel mills) there is a reluctance to accept that all the bad news is in the market. Norilsk Nickel believes the worst is over, as do ANZ and a number of other investment banks. The head of strategic marketing at Norilsk, Anton Berlin, told the Bloomberg news service on October 9 that the rise in the LME stockpile masked a balanced market. “What is happening now is that the stockpiles are just flowing from non-transparent to transparent warehouses,” Berlin said. ANZ shares that view. Its senior commodity strategist, Daniel Hynes, said in a research note last week that recent Chinese “exports” of nickel were “merely the movement of previously hidden inventories”. In China, the world’s biggest consumer of nickel, a rush is on to find a replacement of the raw material lost through the Indonesian ban on unprocessed exports. That has led to a rise in shipments from the Philippines, but that is lower grade ore and there is less of it. With multiple factors at work, including the biggest issue of all, whether Indonesia will retain its ore-export embargo, the nickel market is entering unchartered waters with supply and demand being buffeted by competing forces and distorted by the Qingdao fraud. ANZ, however, is clear in its interpretation of the situation. “The fundamentals remain unchanged,” Hynes wrote. “The market remains on track to move into a sizeable deficit as the Chinese NPI industry adjusts to life without Indonesian nickel imports. “In the short term, rising LME inventories will remain a headwind, as with the rising U.S. dollar. But with Philippines exports expected to ease in the coming months, we feel prices should start to ease higher over the last couple of months of the year. “Real upward momentum in prices is still not expected until early 2015.” If that assessment by the ANZ’s senior commodity strategist is correct than his nickel-price forecast might also be correct, and that’s for a tighter market pushing the price “beyond $US25,000 a tonne” – or more than $US11/lb which would be 50% more than the latest nickel price of $US7.37/lb.

[Joshuatree]

today is a good price to buy, this quarter should see another 10 million added to cash.

Down 7 % atp.

[tricha]

Down 7 % atp.


Someone is selling discounted shares.

Today is my buying day. sure nickel is down, but so is the OZ dollar. PAN are in a good position to ride out a nickel storm, cashed up and no debt.
There are some big players that will not survive another round.

Place your bets folks.;)

[JBmurc]

Yes Ni $6.89 not idea .... need a major drain down in Ni stocks to get the movement we need back the price .....everything I've read points to that happening just might not be till well into 2015 ..sold down some of my MCR investment plan to buy back in before then

[tricha]

Yes Ni $6.89 not idea .... need a
major drain down in Ni stocks to get the movement we need back the price .....everything I've read points to that happening just might not be till well into 2015 ..sold down some of my MCR investment plan to buy back in before then

Pan will produce twice the tons of nickel and have better copper and cobalt credits. Going to be an interesting quarter.

Remember JB the OZ dollar drop will help the low nickel price.

[Joshuatree]

Nice recovery day today tricha; hope you've picked the bottom. Sounds like you've done a lot of research to back yourself there . You're electing a better quarter then? Cheers JT

[JBmurc]

Pan will produce twice the tons of nickel and have better copper and cobalt credits. Going to be an interesting quarter.

Remember JB the OZ dollar drop will help the low nickel price.

Yes AUD weakness has helped but that even has turned of late ....still Ni should grow some legs once China burns through their stockpiles..

Yes PAN does produce more Ni and better credits PGM exposure but MCR has three times the budgeted Ni Exploration over the next 12 months and Mines that would add to the bottom line at higher Ni prices also a very good history of looking after S/H's via Divi's Company spin-off's never asking for S/H's funds MCR is valued round a third less ....

[macduffy]

From FN Arena:

UBS rates PAN as Downgrade to Neutral from Buy (3) - Panoramic has announced it will go ahead with the development of a decline to the orebody at Lanfranchi, providing a new ore source for 16 months. Subsequent development will depend on the prevailing nickel price. It appears the Lanfranchi deposit will not produce nickel at the rate the broker had assumed, thus production forecast cuts follow.
Target falls to 53c from 90c. Lanfranchi is in need of exploration success or Savannah will become PAN's only mine in the next two years, the broker warns. Downgrade to Neutral.
Target price is $0.53 Current Price is $0.51 Difference: $0.025 If PAN meets the UBS target it will return approximately 5% (excluding dividends, fees and charges).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. UBS forecasts a full year FY15 dividend of 5.00 cents and EPS of 11.00 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 9.90%.
At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.59.
Market Sentiment: 0.5
How do these forecasts compare to market consensus projections?
Current consensus EPS estimate is 12.5, implying annual growth of - 501.8%.Current consensus DPS estimate is 4.1, implying a prospective dividend yield of 8.9%.Current consensus price target is $ 0.86, suggesting upside of 86.4%(ex-dividends).Current consensus EPS estimate suggests the PER is 3.7.
All consensus data are updated until yesterday. FNArena's consensus calculations require a minimum of three sources