TSV Transerv - Backdoor Microcap Oiler

[edison]

Yep it is now oil exploration company. But because of the name (used to be a trucking company) it is currently under the radar a bit. Tiny market cap (9 Mil). High risk (like most microcaps) but high rewards, with Wind Gap prospect area with potential for estimated recoverable resource of 60 bcf of gas and 6 mmbbls of petroleum liquids where Transerv has 12.75% interest. The operator is Salinas Energy (SAE).

Have a read and look at their announcements, as well as look at the top 20 shareholders (at the bottom). Has been drifting between 0.015 and 0.026 but sp seems to start to move up.

__________________________________________________ _______________
Quarterly Activity Report for the period ended 30 September 2006
Highlights
• Successful relisting on the ASX on 9 August 2006 following completion of a $2.8 million capital raising.
• Joint Venture Agreement executed with Ausdrill Limited, under which Ausdrill have acquired a 50% interest and
management control of the Westrans Services WA business.
• Acquisition of a 12.75% interest in the Wind Gap oil and gas appraisal project located in the Southern San
Joaquin Basin in California.
• Completion of drilling Wind Gap 42-36 well on 10 October 2006 after reaching total depth of 12,500 feet with
potential hydrocarbon pay zones identified over a number of sandstone reservoir intervals.
• Testing of the Wind Gap 42-36 well scheduled for mid November 2006.
Wind Gap Prospect
The Wind Gap Prospect is located adjacent to the North Tejon gas and oil field in Kern County, California, from which
some 229 billion cubic feet of gas and 23 million barrels of oil and condensate have been produced. Through its
participation in the Wind Gap 42-36 well, Transerv is earning a 12.75% interest in the Wind Gap Prospect leases, which
cover approximately 1,580 acres. The Wind Gap prospect area has potential for an estimated recoverable resource of 60
bcf of gas and 6 mmbbls of petroleum liquids.
Wind Gap 42-36 well
The Wind Gap 42-36 well reached its final total depth of 12,500 feet on 10 October 2006, and the wireline logs were
subsequently run and evaluated. Based on the available data, including these wireline logs and hydrocarbon shows
observed during drilling, a decision was made to run completion casing to approximately 11,300 feet and to carry out a
production testing program. The operator, Salinas Energy Limited, is securing a completion rig to run the program and
the details of the testing schedule are being finalised between the joint venture partners.

Transerv has elected to participate in the completion and testing program of the well, following independent technical
assessment of the well data available. The total cost of the completion and testing program is currently estimated to be
US$406,000 and Transerv will fund its 15% share being approximately US$60,900. Transerv is spending 15% to earn a
12.75% interest in the Wind Gap 42-36 well.
Well Prospectivity
Potential hydrocarbon pay zones have been identified over a number of sandstone reservoir intervals, which correspond
to reservoir units that have produced in the North Tejon gas and oil field. The Wind Gap 42-36 well has been designed to
test a mapped extension of this field and production testing is required to determine whether the potential pay zones will
flow at commercial rates.
From the initial interpretation of the logs and technical data available, the most prospective hydrocarbon potential in the
well appears to be in the three intervals as detailed below:
• Upper Zone #1 8,912’ - 8,968’
• Upper Zone #2 8,990’ - 9,006’
• Lower Zone 11,152’ - 11,236’
The testing program will start with the lowest zone and work upwards. If commercial production is achieved, the relevant
zone will be brought into production and higher zones will then only be tested after depletion of the producing zone.
By order of the Board
Transerv Australia Limited
The geological information included in this announcement is based on information provided by Dr Bevan Warris, a petroleum geologist
employed as

[juqu]

I reckon the story is well and truly out now. With rising oil and gas prices 10% of Warro could bring more good gains for this one. Even at 4 cents, I still believe there's money to be made here.

[Grand Uber]

anyone looked into this one recently, drilling on the warro field to start in september, some big players buying in. Might have a more thorough read over the details tomorrow and update

shareprice showing some positive movement

[Crypto Crude]

share price currently at 2.4cents... I reckon theres an easy 20%-30%
return to be made for a short term trade here...
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

TSV, CUE , BLY or a top up of NSL.

What to do??

[shasta]

TSV, CUE , BLY or a top up of NSL.

What to do??

Hold onto your cash & watch em all get cheaper next week...

The "Obama rally" was wishful thinking

[Crypto Crude]

brettdale-
TSV, CUE , BLY or a top up of NSL.

What to do??


hey brettdale,
I wont comment on BLY, or NSL...
CUE is currently drilling Zeus and if that turns bad then the sp will fall...
so it is up to you if you want to gamble... albiet great risk return...
read what I said on cue thread....

TSV, appraisal well Warro project spudding next week... 35days to drill...
will get to 3 cents for a nice trade...
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

hey brettdale,
I wont comment on BLY, or NSL...
CUE is currently drilling Zeus and if that turns bad then the sp will fall...
so it is up to you if you want to gamble... albiet great risk return...
read what I said on cue thread....

TSV, appraisal well Warro project spudding next week... 35days to drill...
will get to 3 cents for a nice trade...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks for the info.

[brettdale]

Heck, may have to keep a very close eye on it come tuesday. Thanks for the advice.

[Corporate]

BLY is very high risk, it is not a play for the faint hearted, it will move strongly one way or another, if 17c fails it will be down big time in saying that I expect 17c to hold followed by a fast paced swing higher, I would highly recommend a stoploss a cent or so below 17c if your going to have a go, That will at least put the risk reward in your favor. Only trade with money you can afford to lose. Market open will tell the story and BLYs direction, best to act swiftly if it opens higher.

AA (Not Advice)

AA do you think it's that risky? Market Cap of $255m is VERY low... I can't see it going much lower. But i've been wrong before.

[brettdale]

Hi Brett, If your into "Mad as a Meat Axe" very short term trades like I'm into e.g BLY @ 17c-17.5c (very small part of portfolio)

Also Check out OKN if it breaks above Fridays high come Tuesday (market closed Monday P/H I believe)

OKN down 50% in 3 days, so could be a good reaction to all that action... for a 2-3 day trade.

Technically looking oversold ,there was a compressed Price bar on Friday after Thursdays volatile expansion bar e.g a inside day on Friday occurred, this may indicate OKN has found some ground below its feet, a pause in momentum if you like, but its best to wait for that break above of Fridays high as confirmation, first resistance would be found just below $1 depending, a close near its highs Tuesday would indicate continuation the following day, which would no doubt run out of momentum before hitting $1.30, General market could swing both OKN & BLY either way, But OKN is closer to its equilibrium between sellers and buyers than BLY.


AA ( Not Advice)

Once again thanks for the info.

[ELYOB]

TSV is encouraging . Looks good . Hard work ahead but nice situation . Strachan did a report on it this week , worth looking at. Imagine 12c??????????????

I hold a few ; please refer STOCKANALYSIS .

[Crypto Crude]

hey ELYOB,
what did strachan say?
what do you reckon...easy trade, or hold all the way?
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

TSV is encouraging . Looks good . Hard work ahead but nice situation . Strachan did a report on it this week , worth looking at. Imagine 12c??????????????

I hold a few ; please refer STOCKANALYSIS .

Not a bad volume of stock traded on friday , but the price went down.

[ELYOB]

"Recommendation: Following a somewhat fraught programme to get a drilling
rig certified for use in Australia, Transerv is about to commence drilling the
Warro-3 well. The stock has almost doubled in anticipation of this moment, but
StockAnalysis believes that TSV can be bought below 3.4 cents, ahead of
results at its tight gas project. Success is estimated to be worth 12 cps
to Transerv."

Main part from Stockanalysis , but there is much detail in the report . I suggest one contact Peter Strachan at Stockanalysis , posting anymore may be in violation of copywrite etc.,.

[brettdale]

"Recommendation: Following a somewhat fraught programme to get a drilling
rig certified for use in Australia, Transerv is about to commence drilling the
Warro-3 well. The stock has almost doubled in anticipation of this moment, but
StockAnalysis believes that TSV can be bought below 3.4 cents, ahead of
results at its tight gas project. Success is estimated to be worth 12 cps
to Transerv."

Main part from Stockanalysis , but there is much detail in the report . I suggest one contact Peter Strachan at Stockanalysis , posting anymore may be in violation of copywrite etc.,.

This stock is going to be my first buy of the year.

[Corporate]

This stock is going to be my first buy of the year.

brettdale do you care to outline why?

[brettdale]

Bought in at .025

Heres hoping for good results.

[brettdale]

brettdale do you care to outline why?

Just information I have gathered from several boards seems to be mostly positive, without the rampers.

[Crypto Crude]

hey Brettdale,
TSV still looks the goods... The Warro gas field has been previously discovered and this tight gas play brings bigger risks than a usual appraisal well, but it still looks impressive, and much lower risk than exploration wells/wildcats... and a monster target...

also Alcoa's in on this...

If Fracture stimulation works then you are onto a real winner here...
Fracture stimulation provides over 20% of the US domestic Gas supply, so there is every indication that this will work...
read this....

http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/544.pdf
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

hey Brettdale,
TSV still looks the goods... The Warro gas field has been previously discovered and this tight gas play brings bigger risks than a usual appraisal well, but it still looks impressive, and much lower risk than exploration wells/wildcats... and a monster target...

also Alcoa's in on this...

If Fracture stimulation works then you are onto a real winner here...
Fracture stimulation provides over 20% of the US domestic Gas supply, so there is every indication that this will work...
read this....

http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/544.pdf
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks for the heads up, I think I have some reading to do.

[brettdale]

UNLISTED energy company Latent Petroleum and joint venture partners have started Australia's first tight gas drilling operation.
Latent, as project operator, said in a statement today that it and partners Alcoa and Transerv Energy started drilling their first appraisal well at the Warro field, 250km north of Perth, last Friday, following the assembly of an onshore drilling rig from Texas.

Tight gas is held in low permeability sandstone reservoirs that don’t naturally flow gas to surface and has to be coaxed through fracture stimulation, Latent said.

Tight gas fields are more common overseas and provide over 20 per cent of US domestic gas supply.

“During the life of the field the joint venture could drill over 200 wells to produce an average of 100-150 million cubic feet, or 100-150 terajoules, of gas a day, which is approximately 10 per cent of the needs of the South West,” Latent said.

WA Mines and Petroleum Minister Norman Moore, who visited the drilling operation yesterday, said the Warro field has the potential to supply more than 10 per cent of the state’s current gas consumption.

Mr Moore said the joint venture hopes to begin producing gas in 2010 at a rate of 30-100 terajoules per day.

Alcoa said it has increasing concerns around secure gas supply, with 40 years of bauxite still to mine.

“We have a long history of supporting the development of gas infrastructure in WA and it has never been more crucial, not just for Alcoa, but for the sustainability of the whole state,” Alcoa spokeswoman Kim Horne said.

WA lawmakers are also concerned that there are too few sources of gas supply for the domestic state market.

Gas prices in WA were sent soaring last year after an explosion at Apache’s Varanus Island plant cut off a third of the state’s supply.

On completion of all farm-in obligations, including construction of production facilities, Alcoa will hold 65 per cent of the Warro JV, Latent 25 per cent and Transerv 10 per cent.

[brettdale]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090219/pdf/31g4ts3h36mdwp.pdf

Very good news, drilling is on target to be completed in early march.

[brettdale]

Trading halt.

Anyone know why?

[brettdale]

Voluntary trading halt for two days pending an announcement of capital raising.

[brettdale]

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090220/pdf/31g51l4tjyhh7x.pdf

[brettdale]

Is it coming out of its trading halt tomorrow (Tuesday)?

[brettdale]

Good News!


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090226/pdf/31g8t3z00zrbzl.pdf

[brettdale]

My only Australian stock in profit!!!!!!

Bring on more Gas!!

[ELYOB]

Up 16% friday , now looking like it is time to run . This should fly once we get a whiff of gas from the target zones which cant be that far away . Being talked about widely in Perth , with dealers punting it . Strachan [Stockanalysis] is supporting it with a target of 12c , and a buy recommendation under 3.4c......it is cashed up as well now . Go signal out there !

[Corporate]

Could someone provide a summary/run down of this company and it's prospects? I can't access there web site at the moment for some reason. Many thanks :-)

[brettdale]

Website is working.

http://www.transerv.com.au/index.php

[Crypto Crude]

hey brettdale,
Recent announcement very positive....
I continue to like TSV...
I have tipped it in the Hotcopper and Sharescene comps,
along with CUE and a wild card pick of HZN...
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

Success.

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/announcementFiles/2009%5CTSV%5C80ff4724-86bc-4e12-80e5-c75a32bf473e-TSV439794.pdf

[brettdale]

Everything on target!!!

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090305/pdf/31gfwncld27pgn.pdf

[brettdale]

Do you smell gas?????

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090311/pdf/31gjdv8cn0xf10.pdf

[brettdale]

WARRO #3 LOGS INDICATE 280 METRES OF NET GAS PAY
Transerv advises that electric logging has been completed on the Warro #3 appraisal well and a detailed
analysis of the data is currently underway. Latent Petroleum, the Warro Project Operator, have advised
preliminary results show an excellent correlation between mud gas shows and the hydrocarbon zones
identified by the logs. The attached diagram summarises the main results and provides an initial
comparison with the logs of Warro #1 as a reference, confirming the continuity of the reservoir structure
identified by the 3 Warro wells drilled on the project to date.
The preliminary interpretation of the logs has identified a potential net gas pay of 280m with an average
porosity of 9.1% and gas saturation of 73%. These results are slightly better than seen at Warro #1 and
#2, which relied on relatively unsophisticated log data. The outcomes of the Warro #3 electric log
interpretation, in combination with the Formation Image Log which can identify natural fracturing in the
rocks, will be used to finalise the location of the fracture stimulation zones.
The fracture stimulation program on these target gas zones will commence before the end of March and
is expected to take 3 weeks to complete. This will be followed by an extended production test during
May and June.
KEY PROJECT MILESTONES MET
In addition to the granting of the Pipeline Licence (PL80) announced last week, the electric log results
from the Warro #3 appraisal well confirming the potential 280m net pay zone satisfies another important
project milestone for the path towards commercialisation for the Warro Gas Project.
The past 12 months have seen the following critical milestones the Warro Gas project being met:
♦ Alcoa execute joint venture agreement in June 2008 to fund a multi well evaluation program
including 3D seismic, pipeline and production facilities,
♦ Specialised HP 1500 drilling rig bought into the country to drill a number of deep, onshore wells
in WA,
♦ HP 1500 rig successfully completes first Warro appraisal well (#3) to well target TD,
~2 ~
♦ Granting of Pipeline licence PL80, and
♦ Electric logs confirm 280m potential net pay zone in Warro reservoir.

[Corporate]

WARRO #3 LOGS INDICATE 280 METRES OF NET GAS PAY
Transerv advises that electric logging has been completed on the Warro #3 appraisal well and a detailed
analysis of the data is currently underway. Latent Petroleum, the Warro Project Operator, have advised
preliminary results show an excellent correlation between mud gas shows and the hydrocarbon zones
identified by the logs. The attached diagram summarises the main results and provides an initial
comparison with the logs of Warro #1 as a reference, confirming the continuity of the reservoir structure
identified by the 3 Warro wells drilled on the project to date.
The preliminary interpretation of the logs has identified a potential net gas pay of 280m with an average
porosity of 9.1% and gas saturation of 73%. These results are slightly better than seen at Warro #1 and
#2, which relied on relatively unsophisticated log data. The outcomes of the Warro #3 electric log
interpretation, in combination with the Formation Image Log which can identify natural fracturing in the
rocks, will be used to finalise the location of the fracture stimulation zones.
The fracture stimulation program on these target gas zones will commence before the end of March and
is expected to take 3 weeks to complete. This will be followed by an extended production test during
May and June.
KEY PROJECT MILESTONES MET
In addition to the granting of the Pipeline Licence (PL80) announced last week, the electric log results
from the Warro #3 appraisal well confirming the potential 280m net pay zone satisfies another important
project milestone for the path towards commercialisation for the Warro Gas Project.
The past 12 months have seen the following critical milestones the Warro Gas project being met:
♦ Alcoa execute joint venture agreement in June 2008 to fund a multi well evaluation program
including 3D seismic, pipeline and production facilities,
♦ Specialised HP 1500 drilling rig bought into the country to drill a number of deep, onshore wells
in WA,
♦ HP 1500 rig successfully completes first Warro appraisal well (#3) to well target TD,
~2 ~
♦ Granting of Pipeline licence PL80, and
♦ Electric logs confirm 280m potential net pay zone in Warro reservoir.


Another positive annoucement. I keep getting the feeling that the JV partners are pretty confident and that production is a formality now.... yet the market isn't reacting and the price has remained pretty static.

I sold VPEO (a little to early by the looks of it) thinking of putting it on TSV.

[brettdale]

You could try their asx page.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=TSV

[brettdale]

Fracture Stimulation Program commences at Warro to establish flow rates.


http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090331/pdf/31gvgc4c2jqyz3.pdf

[brettdale]

Thats a lot of gas!

http://www.latentpet.com/framework/documents/displaydocument.asp?doc=553.pdf&mailid=36

[brettdale]

Wasn't TSV suppose to come out of its suspension today?

[brettdale]

Great announcement, very strong open, went up from 2.5 cents to 3.2 cents in a matter of minutes, back to three cents at time of writing.

[brettdale]

Finished the day at 3.3.

[brettdale]

Hi, I just bought into ATI today! :-)

[brettdale]

TSV still moving up.

3.7 now.

[Ponda]

Only one seller with 2 million odd shares holding the price up at 3.4 cents. This could be another one of those shares whereby the seller is capping the price (I know, I stole that from AA (I think)) but its doing the trick anyway.

See what happens with it tomorrow.

[Corporate]

Only one seller with 2 million odd shares holding the price up at 3.4 cents. This could be another one of those shares whereby the seller is capping the price (I know, I stole that from AA (I think)) but its doing the trick anyway.

See what happens with it tomorrow.


I'm in @ 3.1c

There aren't many project this size you can get into for this kind of money!

[Ponda]

Hi Corporate,
I got in a couple of days ago at 3.4. It was just after I got in when the capper put his order in and it slowed the whole thing down. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if his big order didn't go in, but thems the breaks.
Well down for waiting. Lets see how far it goes.
Today was a shocker on the ASX. Most of my stocks went down.
Have a good evening

[Corporate]

Hi Corporate,
I got in a couple of days ago at 3.4. It was just after I got in when the capper put his order in and it slowed the whole thing down. It would have been interesting to see what would have happened if his big order didn't go in, but thems the breaks.
Well down for waiting. Lets see how far it goes.
Today was a shocker on the ASX. Most of my stocks went down.
Have a good evening


Hey Ponda, I was going to buy pre the gas flow annoucement but waited since most annoucements didn't move the market much. However, I don't mind paying +25% on the pre annoucement price to know that the gas is flowing :D

Good point about the capper...I don't really care about it though..in the end fair value will prevail and this is not a short term investment for me.

[Corporate]

And if the dow behaves tonight we'll be back up to 3.5cps tomorrow minimum. Sell side looking thin.

[brettdale]

And if the dow behaves tonight we'll be back up to 3.5cps tomorrow minimum. Sell side looking thin.

new ann.

"significantly better gas flow than expected"

:-)

[Ponda]

Brettdale,
Where did you find that ann?

[brettdale]

Brettdale,
Where did you find that ann?

thru asb securities.

[Corporate]

and the price goes down!

[brettdale]

from hotcopper.

Latent have posted an update on their website basically adding to the TSV announcement with:

"Should the well be successful, which appears to be increasingly likely, the joint venture between Alcoa, Latent Petroleum and Transerv could drill more than 200 wells on the field to produce an average of 100-150 million cubic feet of gas per day." etc.

http://www.latentpet.com/_content/documents/555.pdf

[Xerof]

I think that comment is written by the writer of the article (Petnews), rather than a Latent statement.

Not meaning to sound negative, but there appear to be a lot of nervous nellies hanging on every positive piece of info.

It's still VERY early days for this one, so best to just sit back and wait for developments, and ignore the 'noise' created by day-traders/profit-takers.


disc: I hold

[trackers]

and the price goes down!

Chart showing a classic pump and dump


Looking at an entry at these levels

[brettdale]

Whats a pump and dump?

I topped up today.

[trackers]

A pump and dump? The day traders get hold of it and bid the crap out of it all day, before playing musical chairs at the end of the day to book their profits.. Classic play in a highly liquid low cap like this (especially during a drill which is heavy on the news)...Anyway...

Flow test update (emphasis added)

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TSV&E=ASX&N=447661





WARRO 3 – FLOW TESTING UPDATE 3

Flow testing of Warro 3 recommenced on Monday morning after a 3 day shut in period for static pressure testing. The
well continues to flow substantial quantities of natural gas and fluids during this well clean up phase.

Over a 15 hour period of flow testing up to 6am today on a choke of 40/64ths, the well flowed an average gas rate of two
million cubic feet a day (2.0mmcf/d), with a fluid flow rate averaging 550 barrels per day and a well head pressure of 450
psi.

The Operator is keeping the choke at 40/64ths to maintain optimal flow stability through the gas/water separator unit.
Accordingly, we are unable to obtain a current flow rate at 58/64ths choke to enable a like for like comparison with the
flow rates detailed in our previous updates.

By way of example, last Tuesday week (May 12) the choke was increased from 40/64ths to 58/64ths with the following
increase in flow rates (after 7 hours):

Choke 40/64ths 58/64ths
Gas flow 1.3mmcf/d 2.1mmcf/d
Fluid flow 1,100bpd 1,500bpd
Well head pressure 490psi 280psi

As demonstrated above, at a 58/64ths choke the well is expected to flow at significantly higher gas and fluid rates.


Comparing today’s test results to last weeks there has been a 50% increase in the like for like gas flow rate on a 40/64ths
choke, and the fluid flow rate has halved.


The well continues to exhibit a steady trend of increasing gas flow and reducing fluid flow. There is also a steady trend of
increasing well head pressure. Removal of the coil tubing unit on May 14, which increased the volume of the well bore,
caused a once off reduction in well head pressure but did not change this trend.

In relation to the recent well shut in period, it is worth noting that the well head pressure increased to over 2,500 psi
within 48 hours.


Commentary
The well continues to clean up, albeit slowly. Importantly there remains room for considerable further improvement in
the gas flow rate. As the well continues to clean up, the gas flow rate is expected to further increase. In addition,
increasing the choke to 58/64ths, when considered appropriate by the Operator, will significantly increase the flow rate.

The trend of increasing gas to fluid ratio is ongoing and very encouraging. Although the well has taken longer to clean up
than expected, it does appear to be cleaning up. Detailed laboratory analyses of the fluid being recovered shows that it
now appears likely that the fluid is a combination of formation water and frac fluids. The persistent trend of the
diminishing fluid suggests that this recovery of formation water is likely to be limited and the well is gradually cleaning up.

The Operator intends to continue flow testing the well, and if necessary for an extended period, to enable the well to
fully complete the current clean up process and to demonstrate the full gas flow potential.


For and on behalf of the Board


disc: holding a smallish amount

[brettdale]

50% increase!

I like the sound of that.

[Corporate]

isn't the 50% like for like increase old news guys?

[STRAT]

Whats a pump and dump?

I topped up today.Hi Brettdale,
A pump n dump is where people within or some how attached to a company buy a lot of shares in that company and sell a story to the market. When the market takes hold of the story and runs with it they sell into the price spike. The SP usually then comes back down to earth shortly after.

Not saying this is one and I have no Idea how one would identify a pump n dump on the chart as it can take place over a variety of time frames with varied effectiveness.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pump_and_dump

[STRAT]

I couldnt help but notice that during the recent spike this stock did not close up on any day. Looking for a second opinion here but that tells me someone wanted out more than those who wanted in

[brettdale]

I couldnt help but notice that during the recent spike this stock did not close up on any day. Looking for a second opinion here but that tells me someone wanted out more than those who wanted in

Im in a wait and see mode.

[trackers]

WARRO FLOW TESTING UPDATE 5
The Warro 3 testing program continued with completion of the production logging test on Thursday June 4. The
production logging test data is currently being evaluated by Schlumberger and Kappa Engineering, with their final reports
expected in the next few days. These resultswill determine the planning and operation of the next phase of theWarro 3
testing program.
Following completion of the production logging test the well was shut in for a 16 hour period. Immediately upon
recommencement of flow testing the well was producing gas at approximately 3.2 mmcfpd at a well head pressure of
580 psi through a 40/64 ths inch choke. Over the next 48 hours the well flowed gas at an average rate of 2.5 mmcfpd,
405 barrels of water per day, and 6 barrels of condensate per day, with a well head pressure of 238 psi against a 200 psi
back pressure setting.
The constant presence of fluids in the well bore has restricted the gas from reaching its optimal flow rate. The increased
flow rate achieved immediately following the well shut in period demonstrates the ability of the gas flow rate to increase
significantly fromthe reduction of fluids in the well bore combined with an increase in reservoir pressure. During the well
shut in, the pressure generated in the well bore disperses the fluids present back into the reservoir, enabling the gas to
flow with less fluid restriction for an initial period upon recommencement of flow testing.
One of the key objectives of the production logging test is to identify the location of the fluids entering the well bore.
This is required to conclude the appropriate action to optimise the gas flow rate achievable from the Warro 3 well, i.e.
either seal off the relevant area where the fluid is entering the well bore or run an extended flow test to drain the water
bearing zone.
The Company will update the market upon receipt of the analysis from Schlumberger and Kappa Engineering, which is
expected later thisweek.
I like it.

1. The constant disclosure
2. Shut off this aquifier and this well will really start producing the goods (3.2mmcfd vs 2.5mmcfd)
3. The production logging results will "identify the location of the fluids entering the well bore. This is required to conclude the appropriate action to optimise the gas flow rate achievable from the Warro 3 well, i.e.
either seal off the relevant area where the fluid is entering the well bore or run an extended flow test to drain the water
bearing zone. "
4. Flow rates:
Previous update: 1.8 - 2.1 mmcfpd average, and 2.7 mmcfpd after shut in.
Current update: 2.5 mmcfpd average, and 3.2 mmcfpd after shut in.

If you look at this in percentage terms, a very good increase as the water levels start dropping off (assumedly)


disc: bit of a fan, and have been (and hopefully will continue to) accumulate at 2.4c

[Corporate]

I like it.

1. The constant disclosure
2. Shut off this aquifier and this well will really start producing the goods (3.2mmcfd vs 2.5mmcfd)
3. The production logging results will "identify the location of the fluids entering the well bore. This is required to conclude the appropriate action to optimise the gas flow rate achievable from the Warro 3 well, i.e.
either seal off the relevant area where the fluid is entering the well bore or run an extended flow test to drain the water
bearing zone. "
4. Flow rates:
Previous update: 1.8 - 2.1 mmcfpd average, and 2.7 mmcfpd after shut in.
Current update: 2.5 mmcfpd average, and 3.2 mmcfpd after shut in.

If you look at this in percentage terms, a very good increase as the water levels start dropping off (assumedly)


disc: bit of a fan, and have been (and hopefully will continue to) accumulate at 2.4c

just wait to they open the choke up!

[trackers]

just wait to they open the choke up!

Yeah exactly, the previous upgrade from 40/64 to 58/64 lead to a 60% increase in flow...

As I mentioned on HC:


Fluids:
12May - Fluids @ 1565 barrels p/day
18May - Fluids @ 750 barrels p/day
29May - Fluids @ 400 barrels p/day


Flow (like for like 40/64th choke):
12May - 1.3 mmcfpd
21May - 2 mmcfpd
29May - 1.8 - 2.1 mmcfpd
09Jun - 2.5 mmcfpd

All good

[Corporate]

Yeah exactly, the previous upgrade from 40/64 to 58/64 lead to a 60% increase in flow...

As I mentioned on HC:


Fluids:
12May - Fluids @ 1565 barrels p/day
18May - Fluids @ 750 barrels p/day
29May - Fluids @ 400 barrels p/day


Flow (like for like 40/64th choke):
12May - 1.3 mmcfpd
21May - 2 mmcfpd
29May - 1.8 - 2.1 mmcfpd
09Jun - 2.5 mmcfpd

All good

Tempted to double my holding that I got at 3.1CPS

[Xerof]

Tempted to double my holding

I have - nicely developing story

[brettdale]

Basically there is no water in the upper zones!!!!!!! and that is where the gas in!!!!!!!!!


http://research.iress.com.au/ids/pds.asp?uid=EB1CCD5F70F244E2C0BFC667D96FF7C39E1900 0015A3863F6C85E340F1AB0000F4120000&dt=20090615&id=00960428&mp=1

[trackers]

Basically there is no water in the upper zones!!!!!!! and that is where the gas in!!!!!!!!!


http://research.iress.com.au/ids/pds.asp?uid=EB1CCD5F70F244E2C0BFC667D96FF7C39E1900 0015A3863F6C85E340F1AB0000F4120000&dt=20090615&id=00960428&mp=1

Shuuush, hoping to pick some up on open! Just kidding, I actually like the bit where they've just effectively doubled their reserves.


The high gas flow from zone 6 is very encouraging. Following the frac program, zone 6 was assessed as having higher
permeability than the other zones with about 25m of net pay. There is gas sand zone just above zone 6 that contains
about 55m of net pay, and appears from the logging to have similar characteristics to zone 6. This additional unfracced
zone provides substantial potential upside for Warro 3.


this link may work better:

http://www.stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TSV&E=ASX&N=449748

[Corporate]

fantastic annoucement. Well done holders...unluckily i didn't top up last week. Still holding a fairly big portion!

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

TSV ... good news, upgrading their payzones, should give this one a lift ... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[brettdale]

Up to 3.1 in early trading.

[trackers]

Up to 3.1 in early trading.

Yup, I'm topped up at 3c. This week should see the official "this is a commercial find" announcement and we should get a better indication of flow rates going forward and a plan to tap the new reservoirs.

[Corporate]

Yup, I'm topped up at 3c. This week should see the official "this is a commercial find" announcement and we should get a better indication of flow rates going forward and a plan to tap the new reservoirs.

The dow and oil is down today. It could be the perfect opportunity to pick up some more!

[trackers]

The dow and oil is down today. It could be the perfect opportunity to pick up some more!

Thanks, I did pick up another 500,000 @ 2.9c - already up over 10% in 1 day (last trades at 3.2c).

There'll be a very nice announcement tomorrow, friday or monday at the latest then this thing is going to lift off, big time

[Xerof]

The TSV train is about to leave the station - all aboard ;);)

[Crypto Crude]

I agree...
good work picking more up trackers...
There is plently of upside with 15 MMCF/day in the making for TSV...
leverage in the market cap.....
and looks safe with Alcoa as JV partner...
:cool:
.^sc

[trackers]

I agree...
good work picking more up trackers...
There is plently of upside with 15 MMCF/day in the making for TSV...
leverage in the market cap.....
and looks safe with Alcoa as JV partner...
:cool:
.^sc

Thanks man, hope you fellas have got some this things about to take off big time (and still no announcement!!) Buyers 2:1 over sellers, will head up several more points today

[STRAT]

Couldnt resist temptation :D Bought some at open @ 3.3

[gazprom1]

Me neither Strat....great volumes!!!!

[STRAT]

Me neither Strat....great volumes!!!!Sure is but the power has shifted to the sellers :eek:
Lets see how it goes

[trackers]

Sure is but the power has shifted to the sellers :eek:
Lets see how it goes

The day traders on HC are scalping it, still waiting on my announcement lol...

[STRAT]

The day traders on HC are scalping it, still waiting on my announcement lol...With all 15 mill traded at 3.3 and 3.4 those scalpers you speak of are working hard for their money :D

Id be more inclined to to thinking there is a balance between those who want in and those who want out.

The buyers are drying up

[fruitloop]

Sold down NZO to grabbed some more today (I think short term will be a better return), looking forward to an anouncement regarding a successful plug and flow rates.

[STRAT]

The TSV train is about to leave the station - all aboard ;);)Ya Jinxed it Xerof with that Hot Copper Style post :p

[trackers]

Ya Jinxed it Xerof with that Hot Copper Style post :p

yeah, bit of a disappointing day with some random happenings, still backing it to do very well in the next few days... we will see

[Xerof]

Ya Jinxed it Xerof

Yeah, sorry mate. Looked like a breakout was on the cards pre-open.

[STRAT]

Yeah, sorry mate. Looked like a breakout was on the cards pre-open.It was the toot toot that did it lol.
You are right though. The pre open build looked promising. Perhaps we were both sucked in.:eek:
Lets see what happens tomorrow eh?

[Crypto Crude]

I have said this before on HC,
This is the first Commercial tight gas play in Australian history....
The market is skeptical... and fair enough...
This is heading to 10c...
it might take 6 months...
it might take 3 years...
just know that it will get there with Alcoa...
dont trade this one...
the path to that future price is uncertain, the end result is certain...
buy and sit on it for a good 6 months......

LKO also have a promising Tight gas play...
Which is more leveraged...
its up more than 100% off lows..
it hasnt performed over the long term...
TSV looks more safer...
:cool:
.^sc

[brettdale]

I have been holding for six months, and topping up every month, Im getting out very soon. Just waiting for the next announcement.

[brettdale]

Market doesnt seem to like being told their will be an announcement and then one not coming, sellers returning, buyers leaving.

[Ponda]

Brettdale,
Sorry, but I kinda disagree with buyers leaving and sellers turning up. Whenever there is an Ask of 3 there is always somebody there to snap it up. There is an even queue .5 either side of 3 cents, with 11,000,000 on both sides. That being made up of 43 individual orders on the bids and 31 on the asks. That implies to me that more people want in than out?
Just my ponderings, I would like to see it go up.

Discl Hold TSV

P.S My prediction, based on the above is that we will see a 3.1 sale go through before we see a 2.9

[STRAT]

Brettdale,
Sorry, but I kinda disagree with buyers leaving and sellers turning up. Whenever there is an Ask of 3 there is always somebody there to snap it up. There is an even queue .5 either side of 3 cents, with 11,000,000 on both sides. That being made up of 43 individual orders on the bids and 31 on the asks. That implies to me that more people want in than out?
Just my ponderings, I would like to see it go up.

Discl Hold TSV

P.S My prediction, based on the above is that we will see a 3.1 sale go through before we see a 2.9Hi Ponda,
What you can see on the screen doesnt always mean that much. There are trades made that never get to the buy/sell side of the screen and there are traders who play with the depth. Best indicators are volume going through and which way the price is going.
Brettdale is right. The sellers have control.

last 5 days
Monday - highest volume since 13th May and price stayed flat ( market undecided )
The only day the price went up was Wedensday also the lowest volume this week.
I bought these yesterday based on building depth pre open. Obviously not a good idea :o

currently 2.9 :eek:

[Ponda]

Well I got that call wrong.
There is a poster on here (I think it might be Yankiwi) that says for people to make money on shares, do the exact opposite to him. That definately has been the case for me this week.
STRAT, the information that you get about volume is priceless. I'm not yet in a position to start paying for that kind of info. I just get my stuff from supercharts. Where do you get yours from.

Hope you all have a great weekend.

[Ponda]

Hi Yankiwi, I had a quick look at some of your past posts and noticed that you had changed your byline, so thats why I was a bit hesitant on quoting it as yours.
I still like HGD and will hold, as I will TSV.

[trackers]

LOL what a crazy day....good finish though, geez this share does my head in sometimes

[STRAT]

Well I got that call wrong.
There is a poster on here (I think it might be Yankiwi) that says for people to make money on shares, do the exact opposite to him. That definately has been the case for me this week.
STRAT, the information that you get about volume is priceless. I'm not yet in a position to start paying for that kind of info. I just get my stuff from supercharts. Where do you get yours from.

Hope you all have a great weekend.Its all free :D
Incredible Charts ( Free version ) for everything up to yesterday and Direct Broking for today.

Super Charts on thr DB site is fine unless your eyesight is bad.

[brettdale]

LOL what a crazy day....good finish though, geez this share does my head in sometimes

Your not the only one, yeepers if this announcement doesn't come monday, I'm going to go crazy, men in white coats will be dragging me away.

[Ponda]

Great, Thanks for that STRAT. I'll have a look and see how bad my eyesight really is.
Brettdale: I stand corrected. It got to 2.9 before it got to 3.1.
Dont cha just hate the weekends when the markets aren't open. Lets see what Monday brings.

[trackers]

Still no news (!), sp will give back some gains today (no news is good news does not apply here!)

[Corporate]

Still no news (!), sp will give back some gains today (no news is good news does not apply here!)

That's alright. Just another opportunity to top up. Would love some more at 2.8c

[STRAT]

Still no news (!), sp will give back some gains today (no news is good news does not apply here!)There it is Trackers. Hope its good


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00962372

[trackers]

There it is Trackers. Hope its good


http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00962372

Its ok, not what I (or the market) was hoping for.

5.6mmcfpd (what I was hoping for) but still water issues that need to be sorted (not what I was hoping for).

[fruitloop]

Would have been nice to have the water issues sorted, but I think it is a great announcement.

1) 65% of gas flowed from Zone 6 (approx. 4mmcfpd)
2) zone 7 looks to have same characteristics as zone 6, there fore still big upside to gas volumes
3) Several options to stop the water to be tried.
4) Future drills could be potentially allot cheaper as could only drill thorugh zone 6 and 7 to avoid water but get most of the gas.

Happy to hold :-)

[trackers]

Would have been nice to have the water issues sorted, but I think it is a great announcement.

1) 65% of gas flowed from Zone 6 (approx. 4mmcfpd)
2) zone 7 looks to have same characteristics as zone 6, there fore still big upside to gas volumes
3) Several options to stop the water to be tried.
4) Future drills could be potentially allot cheaper as could only drill thorugh zone 6 and 7 to avoid water but get most of the gas.

Happy to hold :-)

Yeah that about sums it up nicely. The rest of this project can drill at shallower depths for greater than originally hoped for flow rates!

The market was still hoping for something spectacular, and given that + most of my watchlist in the red today, I'm not surprised with the sp movement (currently 2.8 - 2.9)

I'm curious about two things:

1. when the water issue came up originally, it was said that an option was just to let it drain out over time (as the water decreased from 1600 barrels a day to 400 barrels)....

Is the water still decreasing? Why is letting it all drain out not back on the table?

2. Zone 6 is responsible for 65%-75% of the 5.6mmcfpd flow (4mmcfpd) - An unfracced zone closer to the surface (Zone 7, right above Zone 6) has similar characteristics but almost triple the payload (20m vs 55m). WHOA!

Thats great. Now whats the plan with getting this zone fracced asap?

[brettdale]

Its ok, not what I (or the market) was hoping for.

5.6mmcfpd (what I was hoping for) but still water issues that need to be sorted (not what I was hoping for).

Its okay???????

It's a freaking disaster, water is still flowing.

The market hates this announcement, several more tests are needed to know if they can do more tests, the market wanted positive news and didnt get it,and the price is free falling.

I may be a newbie, but this terrible.

[trackers]

Its okay???????

It's a freaking disaster, water is still flowing.

The market hates this announcement, several more tests are needed to know if they can do more tests, the market wanted positive news and didnt get it,and the price is free falling.

I may be a newbie, but this terrible.

Brettdale, think you may need to read the announcement again. This well is designed to determine if the Warro project is going to be commercial or not. did you read page 2? Here it is again, for posterity



Untested Gas Production Potential - Zone 7
Independent analysis of the production logging test evaluated fracture stimulation zone 6 as contributing approximately
65% of total gas flow and 75% of gas flow above zone 2. Zone 6 was assessed as having higher permeability than the
other frac zones with about 20m of net pay. A water free gas flow rate of 5.6 mmcfpd has now been achieved (albeit
temporarily), with zone 6 the likely contributor of 65% to 75% of this flow. The unfracced gas sand zone 7, which sits just
above zone 6, contains about 55m of net pay and appears from the log analysis to have similar characteristics to zone 6.
This additional unfracced zone provides substantial potential production upside for Warro 3.

The Company will update the market following analysis of the static gradient survey and further flow testing after the
next isolation bridge plug is set.

The figure we're after is around the 2.5mmcfpd mark, and this has been exceed by over double (5.6mmcfpd), albeit with some issues. Going forward they've found an extra massive zone, and can drill shallower (cheaper/faster) wells to avoid the water at the bottom.

The announcement was over hyped and it didn't meet everyone's expectations, this is true.

The sp is in freefall? Its back to what it was 1-week ago.

A disaster would have been "There's no water entering the wellbore and the well is flowing 2.5mmcfpd and slowly reducing...The well will be plugged and abandoned" That would have been terrible.

Sorry if this sounds mean, but I'm really glad you sold all your shares today (hey you said you were going to regardless of what the announcement said) and wish you all the best for your next buy.

[Corporate]

Its okay???????

It's a freaking disaster, water is still flowing.

The market hates this announcement, several more tests are needed to know if they can do more tests, the market wanted positive news and didnt get it,and the price is free falling.

I may be a newbie, but this terrible.


What a joke. The price is free falling - hardly.

[trackers]

Here's my quick back of the paper calcs, as I've just posted on HC - Hope they're correct, I'm relying on Wolfram Alpha a bit which is always risky!@

Market cap = $30mil

1mmcfge = 1091GJ
150mmcfpd = 163,650GJ
163,650GJ = AUD$1,309,200 p/day for the JV ($8/GJ)

= $130,920 revenue, per day, for TSV.

330 days operation per year? Allows just over a month per year for shutin.

= $43,203,600 revenue, per year, for TSV.

Should I repeat the market cap?

Now... A good estimate of how much they'll be able to recover is 2 Trillion cubic feet @ 150million per day. Thats 13,333 days of operation, or 40 years at 330 days of operation per year

That's how I see it, again please correct me if I'm wrong as the figures above tell a pretty huge story IMO. The per feet per day is assumed on the high side, but given the initial predictions vs what's been delivered I think its fair.

some would assume a higher gas price going forward, and a higher field recovery.

I don't know what to assume costs would be...Anyone know? You could take out a fair whack for costs and TSV would still be delivering its market cap each year in profits.

[fruitloop]

Good Announcement, have plugged below Zone 6 and are currently water Free. Flow rate is 1 mmcfpd.
Zone 7 and 8 are 68m net pay compared to 20 for Zone 6 so lots of Upside (looking at how to progress Fraccing these zones).

Looking at testing for a couple of weeks to make sure water free while looking at options to get the lower zones water free.

Still lots of upside to this, just a matter of being patient.

Cheers
Fruitloop

[trackers]

Good Announcement, have plugged below Zone 6 and are currently water Free. Flow rate is 1 mmcfpd.
Zone 7 and 8 are 68m net pay compared to 20 for Zone 6 so lots of Upside (looking at how to progress Fraccing these zones).

Looking at testing for a couple of weeks to make sure water free while looking at options to get the lower zones water free.

Still lots of upside to this, just a matter of being patient.

Cheers
Fruitloop

Wow, surprised how quickly they've plugged it and got an announcement out. I'm a little bit disappointed with the volumes to be honest, and 1-2 weeks to test seems a bit long!

hmmm

Still really like this share and its definitely going to rocket WHEN it is commercial, but I expect a retrace into mid 2's short-term

[Xerof]

Agree Trackers - this has all the hallmarks of being commercial.

I too am a little concerned/confused on the flow rates - ann 7 they said zone 6 probably represented 65% of that wonderful 5.6mm burst, however, ann 8 they now reckon only 1mm stabilised.

Probably zone 5 and below account for a lot still, and we need to allow time for them to sort out the issues.

However, zone 7/8 appear to be the goods once fracced.

May drift while we await the next couple of weeks for further results, so patience required.

I'll be topping up again if we do see some drift.

I reckon the options conversion will continue as somebody wants to cash out - recycle proceeds to convert options/ sell those heads/recycle to convert/sell heads etc etc - there are 94m of the buggers left

[trackers]

Agree Trackers - this has all the hallmarks of being commercial.

I too am a little concerned/confused on the flow rates - ann 7 they said zone 6 probably represented 65% of that wonderful 5.6mm burst, however, ann 8 they now reckon only 1mm stabilised.

Probably zone 5 and below account for a lot still, and we need to allow time for them to sort out the issues.

However, zone 7/8 appear to be the goods once fracced.

May drift while we await the next couple of weeks for further results, so patience required.

I'll be topping up again if we do see some drift.

I reckon the options conversion will continue as somebody wants to cash out - recycle proceeds to convert options/ sell those heads/recycle to convert/sell heads etc etc - there are 94m of the buggers left

Yup, good call. SP holding up well enough - Will be interesting to see the presentation / sentiment coming out of the Tight Gas Conference that they're presenting at tomorrow

[Xerof]

Will be interesting to see the presentation / sentiment coming out of the Tight Gas Conference that they're presenting at tomorrow

Anybody laid their hands on a copy of the presentation? or able to point in the right direction

[Ponda]

Notice out.
Is this the ann that we are waiting for? Time will tell.

Discl: Hold TSV

[STRAT]

Notice out.
This this the ann that we are waiting for? Time will tell.

Discl: Hold TSVNope. More wait and see

[Ponda]

Bugger,
The market didn't like it one bit. Dropped to 2.1 but is recovering to 2.4 with some biggish trades.

Discl: hold TSV (for a bit longer)

[brettdale]

Glad I got out, how anyone can take anything good from this announcement is beyond me, water still flowing, too bad the gas isnt.

[trackers]

Another 'not great' announcement... Stand by what I said on the last page:

"Still really like this share and its definitely going to rocket WHEN it is commercial, but I expect a retrace into mid 2's short-term"

Not one for the faint hearted, and I've reduced my exposure a bit, to look at more solid options like ROC/TAP/NXS.

[Oiler]

Another 'not great' announcement... Stand by what I said on the last page:

Not one for the faint hearted, and I've reduced my exposure a bit, to look at more solid options like ROC/TAP/NXS.

Trackers, I like your suggestion, looking at more solid options like ROC/TAP/NXS all in my medium to long term hold :D

TSV ... I am not too phased by the water problem, so will pick up more tomorrow (at the right price)

[STRAT]

more tomorrow (at the right price)Didnt realize you were holding this Oiler. Its not in your disclosure.
Some thing to chew over on Saturday :D

[fruitloop]

Took the opportunity to pickup some more, agree with Trackers but am happy to hold though the next few months. I am interested to see whether they Frac zone 7 & 8.

Hopefully they do and the gas flow is good so that the next two wells can be shallower to reduce the water.

Cheers Fruitloop
Hold: CUE, TSV, WCUO, ITC

[STRAT]

I sold soon after buying at a loss. If Ive learned one thing over the years, its not to perpetuate my mistakes. Will be looking at it again though a bit later

[Ponda]

Good buyers depth at the moment and the sellers depth is light. Just need somebody to 'jump the fence' and then it will be fun to watch.

Disc: Hold a parcel of TSV. Not looking at selling, so I'm not ramping it!!! Just alerting to the obvious

[fruitloop]

Excellant announcement, are going to frac zone 7 & 8 expected to contain as much gas as as total already fracced (approx. 4mmcf).

Explained the water issues, aiming to do a cement squeze to stop water inflow. After that approx. 8 weeks of testing.

Based on these results plan to drill additional wells shallower to get around any water issues.

This on top os the local government dropping its royalty percentage from 10% to 5 % is starting to make this project look like a goer.

Price may drop over the next few days as short term traders look to exit? (My guess)

But I think if you can get in and are happy to hold for a few months then this could do very well.

As always DYOR

Cheers
Fruitloop

[Corporate]

Excellant announcement, are going to frac zone 7 & 8 expected to contain as much gas as as total already fracced (approx. 4mmcf).

Explained the water issues, aiming to do a cement squeze to stop water inflow. After that approx. 8 weeks of testing.

Based on these results plan to drill additional wells shallower to get around any water issues.

This on top os the local government dropping its royalty percentage from 10% to 5 % is starting to make this project look like a goer.

Price may drop over the next few days as short term traders look to exit? (My guess)

But I think if you can get in and are happy to hold for a few months then this could do very well.

As always DYOR

Cheers
Fruitloop.

Fruitloop i agree with everything you've got above. Sound like this is going to be a definite go'er. I'm topping up in the next day/week. Hopeing for some traders to show some weakness

[trackers]

I agree also - I've bottom drawed my TSV holdings - the current sp is not factoring in that the project is commercial and won't do so until later in the year

[STRAT]

I agree also - I've bottom drawed my TSV holdings - the current sp is not factoring in that the project is commercial and won't do so until later in the yearHi Trackers,
Wouldnt it be better then to use the coin else where and pick em back up later in the year?

[trackers]

Hi Trackers,
Wouldnt it be better then to use the coin else where and pick em back up later in the year?

Yeah good point, thats quite true. We're talking 8-10 weeks before things really start to happen (fracc new zones and cement squeeze bottom zones), maybe buying back in in 8 weeks to avoid a run up which will happen just prior to the next drilling.. It'll be interesting to see what happens today though.

I really like a few things that have happened lately:

1. WA govt has halved the royalty on tight gas!

2. TSV has implicitly suggested it may still be able to get 8mmcfpd out of this well

3. I really liked how the announcement mentioned that future Warro wells will be able to avoid the water structure completely.. that really is very very good news for the commercialisation of the project

4. JV committed to getting this off the ground by fast tracking the new fraccing... they could have sit on this for a while

[STRAT]

Yeah good point, thats quite true. We're talking 8-10 weeks before things really start to happen (fracc new zones and cement squeeze bottom zones), maybe buying back in in 8 weeks to avoid a run up which will happen just prior to the next drilling.. It'll be interesting to see what happens today though.

I really like a few things that have happened lately:

1. WA govt has halved the royalty on tight gas!

2. TSV has implicitly suggested it may still be able to get 8mmcfpd out of this well

3. I really liked how the announcement mentioned that future Warro wells will be able to avoid the water structure completely.. that really is very very good news for the commercialisation of the project

4. JV committed to getting this off the ground by fast tracking the new fraccing... they could have sit on this for a whileThanks for those highlights. Definitely keeping an eye on this one.

The chart indicates to me money has been leaving this one for a while and I should have looked it over before my impetuous purchase the other week but I do like the story

[Xerof]

Should be an interesting day......

might offer up a couple of options - a sharp rally to sell into, to wait on the sidelines as STRAT suggests, or a dip caused by impatient s/termers, providing some further good entry levels.

The story certainly has taken a turn for the better

[STRAT]

Should be an interesting day......

might offer up a couple of options - a sharp rally to sell into, to wait on the sidelines as STRAT suggests, or a dip caused by impatient s/termers, providing some further good entry levels.

The story certainly has taken a turn for the betterHi Xerof,
That wasnt a suggestion.
Nor have I looked at the chart in detail.

Lets call it an observation worth consideration based only on Trackers previous statement with a picture added for colour :D

Hows that for a disclaimer? :eek:

[Xerof]

Strat, :D:D

in addition to my two possibilities, I should add the third, that the market couldn't give a rats......

[STRAT]

I think I see the very early hint of a very small flicker of life coming back to the flat lining corpse that is TSV :D

Is there anything in the pipeline short term from an FA perspective fellas?

[STRAT]

Hi AA.
That sounds like fun on both counts. Im working :(

this is my version of what says pretty much the same thing

[STRAT]

but OBV continues to rise

[STRAT]

and has continued to rise over the last week or so while the SP has remained flat

[STRAT]

so has momentum

[STRAT]

This one too

[STRAT]

and what do you reckon about this one? :D

[STRAT]

Bloody hell that is one confusing chart lol but at least you understand it... bit small still..

lol. which one?:D

Its the best Share trader can do it would seem. You can click on em for a minor improvement in size

[STRAT]

I think you need to take your indicator lines from the 7th of June, i.e OBV Draw a line ...Horizontal Line Above the Peaks, forget the internal trend within the 7th of june price range.

AAPerhaps Im looking for something that isnt there AA but I did say at the beginning a small hint and its worth noting that during that period the line under touches 4 times while the line above only hits twice.

What about the last one? I know this is a fav of yours and you will do a much better job of reading it than I will.

[Xerof]

STRAT, you beat me to it .... I was going to resurrect this thread to the front page myself today, however, I wasn't going to spam the thread with charts :D:D

I was going to say we should be at the start of a bit of a run - they commence fraccing of 7&8 in early September, then will run a multi-week flow test of either just 6,7 and 8, or the whole shabang, with a possible cement squeeze of it's nether-region

I like the sound of all that, but don't require any graphics of the cement squeeze thanks vm

[STRAT]

Just cause you didnt ask for it :D:D:D:D

[Xerof]

Reminds me of a recent colonoscopy.......

[STRAT]

Could Be on the Money STRAT!,

Probabilities are on TSV breaking higher!

SUPPORT STRONGER THAN RESISTANCE is that what you mean? RIGHT?....I like that ... Tradings all about PROBABILITIES.


:)

AAThat too but dunno If I meant that :D

I do see what looks like a divergence between SP and all these indicators to varied degrees.

How about Twiggs money flow?

[STRAT]

Still think your clutching at Colon Cameras

AAMaybe but I can assure you I had no hand in or on Xerofs Colonoscopy and did you notice what passed through the trend line on your chart above. pun intended

[trackers]

STRAT, you beat me to it .... I was going to resurrect this thread to the front page myself today, however, I wasn't going to spam the thread with charts :D:D

I was going to say we should be at the start of a bit of a run - they commence fraccing of 7&8 in early September, then will run a multi-week flow test of either just 6,7 and 8, or the whole shabang, with a possible cement squeeze of it's nether-region

I like the sound of all that, but don't require any graphics of the cement squeeze thanks vm

Still sitting on these too Xerof, the news is going to be the driver for this one, and yes we should start to see a good run up at the start of September.

I expect baggers on this one, but I'm not going to 'ramp' it, the drill bit will do the talking :)

[STRAT]

Yes OBV, I think you could be onto something, Drawing Trends Lines has never been my Strength as I don't trade using them, but heres another chart none the Less.

To Change From a Down Trend we need to define a low,a high, then we need a higher low and then a higher high, what confused me when trying to learn this concept was when reading short term charts on a Bar chart a higher low and higher high can happen on the same day on one bar, when in close price line charts looking at the longer term the low, high, higher low and higher highs can be peaks and troughs. Weekly charts usually make it clearer to see, the low, high, higher low and higher high when accessing the longer term on difficult charts. Some charts are easy, some are just plain awful.

Daily
http://i650.photobucket.com/albums/uu224/arranging/tsv_ax_price_daily25feb08_to_16sep0.png

This chart is a hard one to chart, well for me anyway lol, for example on that first trend line I don't see a higher low put in before a higher high, the 3rd trough is the same price as the previous two....the low, (i.e Support), from support it goes straight on to making a higher high without first making a higher low.

I find Trend lines so Subjective, so I use different means of gauging momentum. I notice how the sp line deviates quite a long way from the trend line

Trend Lines will never be my Forte.


AAHi AA,
When I look at that first trend line I notice it is followed by a double bottom. Secondly I notice the steepness in which the sp line passes through it. I also notice only two points touch it so its not confirmed though possibly close enough. I notice how the sp line deviates a long way from the trend line in the first half and how although the sp line passes through the trend line in an aggressive manner the sp line also appears to have slipped into a trading range. At that point I would be looking for other signals and playing wait and see.

I like trend lines and with candles ma and volume these are my main 4 ways of looking at a stock with other indicators as icing/reinforcement.

Interesting isnt it how we can all look at the same painting and have a different take on it.

Hows your head today? :D

by the way I would have put that first line here.

[STRAT]

Still sitting on these too Xerof, the news is going to be the driver for this one, and yes we should start to see a good run up at the start of September.

I expect baggers on this one, but I'm not going to 'ramp' it, the drill bit will do the talking :)I think perhaps that was ramp Trackers:p

[trackers]

I think perhaps that was ramp Trackers:p

Nah it was a 'really like this share but too busy to post more info or strongly recommend it' :D It is still classed as spec after all.

Yesterday's close of 2.8c would have confirmed a decent uptrend surely?

New fracc program of zones 7 - 8 to start imminently which I hope will add 1-2mmcfpd on to the 4.5mmcfpd they'll be pumping if/when the cement squeeze job is successful in plugging the water which is still messing with the flow.

This on top of the halving of the WA royalty on gas should see this project confirmed as a winner within a month (initially >2mmcfpd was suggested as the target for this)

... Thats the plan anyway... dyor

[STRAT]

Yesterday's close of 2.8c would have confirmed a decent uptrend surely?

Nope :D................... but todays action thus far has confirmed there is strong resistance at that price

[Corporate]

TSV is getting it's move on. Stoked that it is my pick for the september comp. Nearly back to my buy price too :D

[Corporate]

I'm not a TA expert but to me the chart is looking positive.

Broken the resistence at 2.8
Volume increasing
OBV increasing

[STRAT]

I'm not a TA expect Me either :D

[evilroyrule]

any idea what the halt is for other than to report on warro 3 well? ive never understood why some reports on progress result in trading halt and others business as usual? any of you oil gurus help?

[STRAT]

Hi Roy
Im no Guru but as I understand it a TH is put in place to prevent leaked info moving the SP before an announcement can be made. I agree that there seems to be no consistancy regarding this at times.

So this either means good news, bad news or they want more of your money :D

Are you expecting good news here Trackers?

[evilroyrule]

thanks strat. well expecting news, and the punt obviously was that it wld be good. but then i see a lot of shares changed hands this morning less than opening SP. looks not too good me thinks.

[STRAT]

thanks strat. well expecting news, and the punt obviously was that it wld be good. but then i see a lot of shares changed hands this morning less than opening SP. looks not too good me thinks.mmm,
12 mill before TH ans a 10% drop. Other signals showing a turn one the last week. You may well be right Roy

[trackers]

Hi Roy
Im no Guru but as I understand it a TH is put in place to prevent leaked info moving the SP before an announcement can be made. I agree that there seems to be no consistancy regarding this at times.

So this either means good news, bad news or they want more of your money :D

Are you expecting good news here Trackers?

Heya Strat,

Well... I expect that the company is all good going forward and that the Warro project will be a big success in time.. BUT

certainly doesn't look good, a huge drop then a trading halt.

My bet? The fraccing of the new zones has failed to produce the goods.


From the last announcement (written on) 15Sept:

" The well clean up is expected to take up to 7 days prior to the well producing a clean gas flow. "

From this, clean gas flow would be expected by tomorrow at the latest. Probably not a coincidence.

All good though, I've reduced my exposure a lot and am in at 2.7c, so no dramas here.

[evilroyrule]

hmmmmm. what do you make of fact several buyers now bidding over close sp?

[trackers]

hmmmmm. what do you make of fact several buyers now bidding over close sp?

wishful thinking. The amount on the sell is very very low though, which does show that people are pretty unsure and it could go either way.

blue-sky potential is the winner on the day for me :)

[evilroyrule]

nothing wrong with optimism.

[trackers]

nothing wrong with optimism.

Sorry, I was just kidding... I mean that the bulk of the buy orders are at 2.5/2.6, some holder's chucked in a tiny bid at 3c to make the reality seem a little better than it really is/was pre-trading halt.

Oh well, we'll see soon enough :)

[evilroyrule]

hey tracks, any word on the halt or outcome of the flow testing? i guess we will find out tomorrow! i wonder if that seller of 1 million at.02 will be there when market opens?

[STRAT]

Extended another 4 days. Didnt they do this last time there was an extended clean up.

Drama Queens or something big ? :confused:

[evilroyrule]

strat do you know why rather than another trading hold they asked for/were suspended from trading? thanks in advance

[trackers]

strat do you know why rather than another trading hold they asked for/were suspended from trading? thanks in advance

Clear the decks of all existing pending orders I suspect.


Hope the announcement comes on Tues if good, with a public holiday in Aus on Monday an announcement today won't do us any favors.

Originally I suspected this to be quite bad but the financial report, news of continuing flare (from a reliable source thats held up over a few months) etc leads me to not be so pessimistic.

The last time this chain of events occurred was to announce the first gas flowing from Warro (on the back of a decent flow rate)

[evilroyrule]

thanks tracks. im with you. all will be good!

[STRAT]

strat do you know why rather than another trading hold they asked for/were suspended from trading? thanks in advanceHi Roy.
What he said as far as I know :D

[evilroyrule]

wishthe market was a bit more feel alive for tomorrow. still, only one more sleep to go. any guesses?

[STRAT]

The sun is shining, Overseas markets are up. Nice day for a good announcement.

[evilroyrule]

top man strat! in your view is this a bottom drawer share or a short termer, or perhaps dependant on what is said today?

[STRAT]

top man strat! in your view is this a bottom drawer share or a short termer, or perhaps dependant on what is said today?Hi Roy,
I dont think a bit of wishful thinking makes me a top man and I cant answer that question Roy because I really dont know but everything for me starts out as just a trade.

I have absolutely no idea what will happen when the trading halt ends so I will decide then. TA first, everything else second.

[Ponda]

Hopefully it will be a good announcement.
Opinions are divided 50/50 as to whether it will be a good one or not.
It would be nice just to see my holding go into the green. Currently on a 25% paper loss.
With the DOW having a good day overnight a good announcement will kick it up big time, that is if we get the Ann today
Hope it all goes right for us today.
Have a good one all.

[evilroyrule]

bloody hell. another two days!!! what are they doing??? packing all their bags/passports......

[STRAT]

bloody hell. another two days!!! what are they doing??? packing all their bags/passports......Naaaa. Reckon they are franticly pumping water out of the hole and praying it will stop flowing before Thursday. :D

[trackers]

Naaaa. Reckon they are franticly pumping water out of the hole and praying it will stop flowing before Thursday. :D

I think that pictures from H20 Strat, not Warro.. I'm pretty sure this is the right one:

http://www.iforce.co.nz/View.aspx?i=1bj235nd.jpg

[STRAT]

Haha Trackers

There you go. They cant get the gas flowing cause of all the oil thats in the way :D

[trackers]

Announcement out, Warro 3 is a no-go - looks like the fraccing just bought more water.

Project is still all good but this is unfortunate indeed

[evilroyrule]

thanks tracks. at least they tried to put a little positive spin on it! not sure it justified a seven day halt though, i seen oilers report dustys with no halt. anyhoo, looks like we will mooch around in the 2cs for a while. anyone want to buy a racehorse?

[evilroyrule]

looks like we still waiting on an announcement before trading resumes. this is better than the soaps!

[trackers]

looks like we still waiting on an announcement before trading resumes. this is better than the soaps!

Oh my, I never noticed that... figured we'd be back in business this morning. What the hell...

I'm going to chuck these in the bottom draw for a few months until Warro 4

[evilroyrule]

depending on your nerve today could be a day to top up the sock draw. in for a penny....

[trackers]

depending on your nerve today could be a day to top up the sock draw. in for a penny....

Yeah was thinking that... I am fully loaded at the moment though (rare event!).

If I had a dollar for everytime I'd seen TSV go from 2.1c to 3c... Definitely good opportunities there for the brave (not that I condone catching falling knives :) )

[STRAT]

Geez this one has burned me twice lol.
I thought it would come down more today though.

How far away is the next hole Trackers?

If its a while I can see the SP slowly bleeding to death

[evilroyrule]

any thoughts on how to play this one? i thought it might bubble away at 1.7 for a while but it seems to be on the dip. bottom draw or cut losses and walk away. i cant find any sign of impending news that might breathe life to it.

[seaosh]

Thought there were a couple more drills coming up with potential to lift the price?

Have a very small position but just as a little gamble. . .

[evilroyrule]

you might be right. at least today is a marked increase volume wise!

[STRAT]

you might be right. at least today is a marked increase volume wise!Thats not a good sign Roy unless the price goes up.

Seems to have found support over the last week or two at 16c but a close below 15 would not be good.

Without news this will slowly bleed to death I reckon.

[trackers]

I've bottom drawed mine, its a small holding and I'm in long-term.

Short-term there MAY be an announcement signalling the intentions for Warro3 and medium term something for Warro4.

If Warro3 is still producible then they're looking ok (i.e proceed with cement casing)... I'd say PAA is looking like the likely option though.

Given all that, if I had to make a recommendation I'd say walk away, as there's probably a better chance of these going down then up (in the absence of any 'unexpected' news one way or the other).

I still think the project will go ahead and be all good for TSV, but you could probably just pick these up 6months-1year down the track as some de-risking occurs (Warro4 goes down and produces a stable gas rate without water OR with infrastructure in place to handle the water)

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

TSV ... expecting positive price moves, as 3 positive time cycles
come into play, over the next couple of weeks:

27-28102009 ..... positive spotlight on TSV

3010-02112009 ..... positive news expected here ... :)

11-12112009 ..... positive cycle ... finance-related ... ???

..... and expect TSV to be booming, around 05-08022010, as well.

happy trading

paul

:)

[STRAT]

Hey Trackers.
This little pet broke out today in the afternoon session with some heavy buying in the after market auction. Buy side has plumped up. Looks ready for a run to me.
Any FA or Goss that could explain this that you know of ???

[Cannibal]

Yep - up 35.7% on volume of of 15.7 million. Extraordinary. I can see a "Please explain" being issued...

[trackers]

Hi Strat,

No idea! But going by the price action in the week before the last TH, I'd say there is an announcement coming lol. The rise isn't on low volumes as I would have thought..

[STRAT]

Yep - up 35.7% on volume of of 15.7 million. Extraordinary. I can see a "Please explain" being issued...Yup and the usual reply "Gosh we have no idea why people are suddenly buying our shares"

Not moving today. Pehaps thats it for another 6 months. Buy side still looks fat though

[ELYOB]

Somebody recommended it a few days ago ...... cant remember where I saw that . It was in strong terms , esp the next hole

[STRAT]

Somebody recommended it a few days ago ...... cant remember where I saw that . It was in strong terms , esp the next holeThanks Elyob.

[Cannibal]

Yep - appreciated Boyle. I wondered why the price stayed up after their Schultz statement - "I know nothing".
Fingers crossed!

[STRAT]

New signs of life from this corpse. Seems to have found a bit of support at 1.6 and going for a wee trot today.

[Caesius]

Hmmm. It wasn't on huge volume and the buyers are thin until 1.5.

This stock has taught me a lot, namely insider trading happens..

P.S. not saying this was insider buying - but it has happened before!

[Cannibal]

Trading halt

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/alcoa-shrugs-off-tax-ware-to-proceed-with-gas-project/story-e6frg9no-1225872269228

Looking good - at laat!

[trackers]

Trading halt

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/city-beat/alcoa-shrugs-off-tax-ware-to-proceed-with-gas-project/story-e6frg9no-1225872269228

Looking good - at laat!

Ahhh, good stuff.. About time they announced something, even if you do have to read about it in the papers first :)

[STRAT]

lol I dunno which was more limp the price query or the response to it.

Trading halt lol

What the hell for???

[STRAT]

Hey Xerof.
When does drilling start at Amazon?

[Xerof]

Spuds 18 Dec, with a 50 day drill period, so we strike it rich on Feb 5th 2011 :D, and then we should be into the next Warro well

[STRAT]

Spuds 18 Dec, with a 50 day drill period, so we strike it rich on Feb 5th 2011 :D, and then we should be into the next Warro wellHaha and thanks. With that kind of enthusiasm I guess you will be carrying a few QPN too

[Xerof]

no QPN - I've been accumulating more TSV, so happy with exposure to Amazon via their 5% (minimal downside if dusty, but should get some decent traction if strikes paydirt)

[STRAT]

no QPN - I've been accumulating more TSV, so happy with exposure to Amazon via their 5% (minimal downside if dusty, but should get some decent traction if strikes paydirt)Good plan. TSV will be the only one of the 3 left standing if its a duster.

[STRAT]

Depth is building under this one. I think we may be in for a run soon

[STRAT]

Depth is building under this one. I think we may be in for a run soonNews out today so that may be it for a while. Aint it great the way the news gets around to their mates early and charts show this.

[STRAT]

TSV looks set for a bit of a go this morning

[Caesius]

Trading halt. Announcement about status of operations on the Marian Baker #1 well.

[Xerof]

Not much comment on this one lately. Its turned into a multibagger over the past 10 months, but the real action should come over the next 3 to 6 months with flow testing of Warro 4 to be reported shortly, and a likely windfall cash profit coming from cashing in on some extremely astute purchasing of rights over prime land in Canada, possibly adding 5 cents per share in value.

At a current price of 4.4, the market has not yet fully understood the intrinsic value about to be unleashed

Still room for very good upside from here

DYOR

[drillfix]

Sounds interesting Xerof,

Although, how do you think this will pan out with these unknown or variable market conditions. Will everything you suggest as value be wiped away due to the any potential further falls in markets, as in all boats sink with a declining tide story?

Or should be be resilient and hold ground on its merits or FA.