TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Beagle]

Jeez $2 .....that’s almost half price from last year (needs doubling to get back there)

PEs don’t mean much ....maybe value as a divie stock ....as no growth likely could treat it like a bond. Maybe should price it like a ‘bond’ with an expected 10% pre tax return to compensate for risk (based on performance and even this sunset industry talk)

Was thinking about that too. You know when HLG was really out of favour and retail was like a hot potato that nobody wanted to own and HLG was $2.70 in August 2016. It was paying a gross yield of 15% back then and I commented that the metrics were truly compelling and it must be a buy.
TRA would need to get down to 17 / 0.72 = 23.61 cps gross divvy / 0.15 = $1.57 to be as compelling. Hmmm... Maybe $1.57 is the floor ?

[winner69]

Was thinking about that too. You know when HLG was really out of favour and retail was like a hot potato that nobody wanted to own and HLG was $2.70 in August 2016. It was paying a gross yield of 15% back then and I commented that the metrics were truly compelling and it must be a buy.
TRA would need to get down to 17 / 0.72 = 23.61 cps gross divvy / 0.15 = $1.57 to be as compelling. Hmmm... Maybe $1.57 is the floor ?

That’s pretty close to the $1.60 the phone typed for me the other day ...maybe omens not gremlins

Messages come from unexpected places eh

[BlackPeter]

Jeez $2 .....that’s almost half price from last year (needs doubling to get back there)

PEs don’t mean much ....maybe value as a divie stock ....as no growth likely could treat it like a bond. Maybe should price it like a ‘bond’ with an expected 10% pre tax return to compensate for risk (based on performance and even this sunset industry talk)

Interesting exercise - what would a bond with a return of 10% AFTER tax (cum imputation credits) be worth these days given that the market prices other higher risk bonds (like e.g. NZR010) at currently 4.6%? Maybe this "TRA bond" is currently trading at a more than 50% discount compared to other bonds?

Clearly shows that the market either misprices this share or that it seems to think they won't be able to continue paying the dividend at this level. Question is - how high is the risk really given the current "discount" rates?

And not so sure about the "sunset industry" either ... I know we talked on this thread a lot about the threat of electrical cars ... however - so far this seems to be just that: talk. And if we think about it - electrical cars are not really a threat to their business model ... somebody needs to sell them as well (so - why not Turners?), however self-driving shared vehicles run and maintained by Uber (or whoever else) might be.

On the other hand - looking at NZ's geography - with the exception of Central Auckland I would not think that we have anywhere the required population density to make a vehicle sharing model economical. I can't get an Uber at our place (less than 40 km into Christchurch) ... and if I book currently only twice a month a taxi into town, than I pay already more for the fare than for owning and driving my own car every day.

Which means - as long as people need to buy their own ride with or without combustion engine do I see no reason why Turners could not stay in business. The only thing stopping them would be if they screw up their business by providing bad service or not competitive pricing ... nothing to do with any disruptive technology.

What happened to the people selling carts and horses in the early 1900's? I suppose they replaced the haybarn with a petrol station and started to sell cars with combustion engine ...

[RTM]

That’s pretty close to the $1.60 the phone typed for me the other day ...maybe omens not gremlins

Messages come from unexpected places eh

One thing that this reporting season has again highlighted to me for is the importance of a well diversified portfolio. Yes, one might miss out on the “highs” of an overweighted position in ATM on the valuation of your portfolio, but...it’s nice to have a steady stream of dividends coming in, many of which are increasing year to year. Like Percy I am relying on my market investments to provide dividends for our living expenses. So when a single stock like Turner’s goes South, it really is only affecting 5%, oops...now 4% of my capital. And as long as the dividend is maintained....well, do I really care that much as long as they stay in business ? (the answer is yes, I hate it) Most of of my portfolio positions are in the 3-6 % range, with a few a wee bit higher...but not more than 10%. Yes, I hear some of you say, diworsification at its best....but when something heads south...well, it sure eases the pain.

[peat]

Most likely so read into that what you will, doesn't say much to me as they have shown on many occasions that they are not the smart money.

Yes Note I wasnt saying it was the right thing for them to do, I was more commenting on the affect it will have (is having if it is true) on the share price.
It could go excessively low if they decide to bail at whatever the cost !

[Snoopy]

And not so sure about the "sunset industry" either ... I know we talked on this thread a lot about the threat of electrical cars ... however - so far this seems to be just that: talk. And if we think about it - electrical cars are not really a threat to their business model ... somebody needs to sell them as well (so - why not Turners?), however self-driving shared vehicles run and maintained by Uber (or whoever else) might be.


I think some Turners shareholders might have forgotten that this iteration of 'Turners' is a finance company. They were a car sales business once, back in the old 'Turners Auctions' days. But 'Turners Automotive Group' is actually the old Dorchester with a good lick of paint over the old name.

It is nice for a finance company to have a vertically integrated car sales chain as it provides a useful channel through which to solicit business. But actually 'Turners' could sell off the whole vehicle sales business, after tying up an exclusive finance deal of course, and turn a lot of that goodwill on the balance sheet back into cash and grow the business via 'Oxford Finance' building dental surgeries (we found out at the road show they built one last year). Sunset industry? Show me the day that every kiwi buys all their stuff with cash and I will believe you.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

I think some Turners shareholders might have forgotten that this iteration of 'Turners' is a finance company. They were a car sales business once, back in the old 'Turners Auctions' days. But 'Turners Automotive Group' is actually the old Dorchester with a good lick of paint over the old name.

It is nice for a finance company to have a vertically integrated car sales chain as it provides a useful channel through which to solicit business. But actually 'Turners' could sell off the whole vehicle sales business, after tying up an exclusive finance deal of course, and turn a lot of that goodwill on the balance sheet back into cash and grow the business via 'Oxford Finance' building dental surgeries (we found out at the road show they built one last year). Sunset industry? Show me the day that every kiwi buys all their stuff with cash and I will believe you.

SNOOPY Yes and Dorchester and Oxford Finance were two of only a very small number of companies in this sector which survived the GFC so definitely made of resilient stuff.

[percy]

I think some Turners shareholders might have forgotten that this iteration of 'Turners' is a finance company. They were a car sales business once, back in the old 'Turners Auctions' days. But 'Turners Automotive Group' is actually the old Dorchester with a good lick of paint over the old name.

It is nice for a finance company to have a vertically integrated car sales chain as it provides a useful channel through which to solicit business. But actually 'Turners' could sell off the whole vehicle sales business, after tying up an exclusive finance deal of course, and turn a lot of that goodwill on the balance sheet back into cash and grow the business via 'Oxford Finance' building dental surgeries (we found out at the road show they built one last year). Sunset industry? Show me the day that every kiwi buys all their stuff with cash and I will believe you.

SNOOPY

Agreed.....
Most probably more than "a lot" of that goodwill.

[Beagle]

Yes trying times for all Turners shareholders including directors who have a lot of skin in the game.
However as we all know NZders love to buy cars [even suspect Holdens]...lol.
Every manufacturer has the odd lemon that comes off the production line not right. Some manufactures like Ferrari xray the castings of each engine to ensure they're cast to specification and produced right but we're not talking Ferrari prices here, this is mass production. The brand new replacement Holden is going fine so far and I see Holden had the third highest number of registrations for 2018 so hardly a tin pot brand that's ignored by the public...but speaking of possible pups, another new multi year low for TRA today...I think I'd rather take my chances putting my money in a new Holden at least there's only a small chance of a pup there lol


ah ooo Werewolves of London.
Speaking of strange things mate. What I find incredibly strange with this one is the absolute paucity of depth on the buy side. This is not a now and again thing, its basically all the time. I would go so far as to say there is no proper market in these securities, buyers just aren't interested. If this is such a bargain as some on here suggest, why aren't buyers lining up left right and centre ? This stock appears to have no institutional support whatsoever and now that Percy and you have finished buying and the buy-back will conclude in due course what hope is there ? Maybe BP will come to the rescue with a private equity buy-out or maybe its a conspiracy and Grant Baker et al wants it to go lower so he and his mates can take it private at a dirt cheap price ?


One thing that this reporting season has again highlighted to me for is the importance of a well diversified portfolio. Yes, one might miss out on the “highs” of an overweighted position in ATM on the valuation of your portfolio, but...it’s nice to have a steady stream of dividends coming in, many of which are increasing year to year. Like Percy I am relying on my market investments to provide dividends for our living expenses. So when a single stock like Turner’s goes South, it really is only affecting 5%, oops...now 4% of my capital. And as long as the dividend is maintained....well, do I really care that much as long as they stay in business ? (the answer is yes, I hate it) Most of of my portfolio positions are in the 3-6 % range, with a few a wee bit higher...but not more than 10%. Yes, I hear some of you say, diworsification at its best....but when something heads south...well, it sure eases the pain. A very good post that I think some on here should read more than once.

[winner69]

Saw the depth just before the end of day shenagins and though hell’s bell it’s going to close at 220

Phew but it held at 220 ....maybe divine intervention held it up.

[couta1]

Saw the depth just before the end of day shenagins and though hell’s bell it’s going to close at 220

Phew but it held at 220 ....maybe divine intervention held it up. That be for tomorrow winner, plenty of bored reef fish to keep selling their small bundles for a big % loss.

[BlackPeter]

That be for tomorrow winner, plenty of bored reef fish to keep selling their small bundles for a big % loss.

Buy dear sell cheap - not the best strategy to conserve capital but this is what greed and (currently) fear makes some people do ...

[winner69]

Buy dear sell cheap - not the best strategy to conserve capital but this is what greed and (currently) fear makes some people do ...

I don’t think fear has anything to do with it. Probably pissed of ‘investors’ giving the one finger salute to a delusional Board and Management who has emptied their pockets and have not delivered on the promise of increasing eps from acquisitions etc etc etc

Old hackneyed Buffett phrases make some feel comfortable ..... but quotes like ‘Radix malorum est cupiditas’ may have more meaning

[BlackPeter]

I don’t think fear has anything to do with it. Probably pissed of ‘investors’ giving the one finger salute to a delusional Board and Management who has emptied their pockets and have not delivered on the promise of increasing eps from acquisitions etc etc etc

Old hackneyed Buffett phrases make some feel comfortable ..... but quotes like ‘Radix malorum est cupiditas’ may have more meaning

Hmm - not quite sure I understand. The only logical reasons to sell these shares at this point in time I could see are

1) if people are (rightly or wrongly) concerned that the company might go belly up (I don't see that, but it would not be the first time where companies did that and I did not foresee it) or suffer a permanent drop in earnings ...

2) if not diversified investors need their money at this point in time (Ouch ...).

3) Investors following beagles forecast and selling them now to buy them back at a predicted $1.60 (or was it $1.57?) bottom. But than - given the market depth it would need to be a small number of cunning investors with not too deep pockets and lots of luck ... (with all due respect - nobody ... not even beagles can predict bottoms ;))

I understand as well that people might want to give a signal to a greedy (here is the word!) board ... but selling now might be a quite expensive signal (and would it really hurt the board ...?);

So - how does greed as the root of all evil come into this discussion?

[couta1]

Is that you bidding for 5000 at $1.60 Beagle, the only live bid.Lol

[minimoke]

Is that you bidding for 5000 at $1.60 Beagle, the only live bid.LolJeez - its not very often you see a single solitary bid on the buy side. This is sure one un-loved company.

[couta1]

Jeez - its not very often you see a single solitary bid on the buy side. This is sure one un-loved company. Don't panic the troops have arrived to support the $2.20 price.

[winner69]

Jeez - its not very often you see a single solitary bid on the buy side. This is sure one un-loved company.

Yes indeed .... but why would anybody buy anyway?

A pariah of the stock market remains a pariah for a long time

[winner69]

Wonder if guru management will do another round of Investor Roadshows soon?

Mind you 'Investor' per se isn't really appropriate word for Turners

[Beagle]

Is that you bidding for 5000 at $1.60 Beagle, the only live bid.Lol


Don't panic the troops have arrived to support the $2.20 price.
Yeap...you can count on FCNZ to manage it down in an orderly manner.

[Balance]

Yeap...you can count on FCNZ to manage it down in an orderly manner.

Something very odd indeed with the bid side.

Only a novice would pay $2.20 when there's clearly plenty of selling around.

Now why would the 'buyer' pay $2.20?

[Beagle]

I believe what you see on the screen in terms of depth to the sell side is a just a mere fraction of what's really for sale.
FCNZ as the broker tasked with the buyback are keen to maintain the charade of an orderly market.

[BlackPeter]

I believe what you see on the screen in terms of depth to the sell side is a just a mere fraction of what's really for sale.
FCNZ as the broker tasked with the buyback are keen to maintain the charade of an orderly market.

How would you propose they do that? Interfere with the NZX data? Are you accusing them of a criminal activity?

The only thing they can control is placing their bids ... not the sales, and certainly not any third party sales.

[Beagle]

How would you propose they do that? Interfere with the NZX data? Are you accusing them of a criminal activity?

The only thing they can control is placing their bids ... not the sales, and certainly not any third party sales.

Nothing criminal about it. See the Direct broking thread. The selling is relentless. As soon as a sale order is filled the sellers come back and load more to the sell side. There's simply no end to it whereas in terms of buying depth, there has been an absolute paucity of interest for many months now. Better get used to it making new multi year lows on a regular basis mate. The trend is clearly not your friend with this one.
Do you think leaving just 60 shares on the bid at $2.20 is a bit contrived ? Hoping someone doesn't have access to depth information and bids $2.21 ?

[minimoke]

FCNZ as the broker tasked with the buyback are keen to maintain the charade of an orderly market.
This is what an orderly market looks like

[couta1]

This is what an orderly market looks like Nice ski slope, Beagle might even have a go on that slope.

[minimoke]

Nice ski slope, Beagle might even have a go on that slope.
Fixed .

[couta1]

Fixed . Now your talking, at least they are both skiable unlike slope SPK which would be unskiable even for the best extreme skier.Lol

[Beagle]

Nice ski slope, Beagle might even have a go on that slope.

Yeap I'd have a go on that slope but be watching for very slushy conditions down the bottom. Could make a huge mess after a belly flop eh mate (private joke folks)

[Beagle]

Not very volatile is it

Easy skiing conditions. Canny investors will wait until the chair lift gets fixed :)

[BlackPeter]

I believe what you see on the screen in terms of depth to the sell side is a just a mere fraction of what's really for sale.
FCNZ as the broker tasked with the buyback are keen to maintain the charade of an orderly market.


Nothing criminal about it. See the Direct broking thread. The selling is relentless. As soon as a sale order is filled the sellers come back and load more to the sell side. There's simply no end to it whereas in terms of buying depth, there has been an absolute paucity of interest for many months now. Better get used to it making new multi year lows on a regular basis mate. The trend is clearly not your friend with this one.
Do you think leaving just 60 shares on the bid at $2.20 is a bit contrived ? Hoping someone doesn't have access to depth information and bids $2.21 ?

Are we sure we are talking about the same stock? Daily trading volumes for TRA have been in recent days typically around 10k shares traded per day. Admittedly - today it is already a stunning 66.9k. Must be for this stock close to capitulation volumes?

As well, not seeing what advantage NZFC would have in pushing the SP up - their client would no doubt prefer to buy as cheap as possible ...

But anyway - TRA is clearly at this stage not the markets darling - and a big fund selling without another fund buying creates clearly some assymetrie in the trading of an illiquid stock. Question is - is Milford right to sell? I don't know - sometimes they are, sometimes they are not.

If they are not, than the current SP is clearly a pretty good deal ... though obviously - it might be still better tomorrow.

Just imagine - the share market closes down for the next 5 years. Would my TRA investment continue to pay dividends and still be around and stronger when it reopens? Based on the currently available public information - I would have no reason to doubt this.

[winner69]

Just imagine - the share market closes down for the next 5 years. Would my TRA investment continue to pay dividends and still be around and stronger when it reopens? Based on the currently available public information - I would have no reason to doubt this.


I love just imagine games


If the market closes down for 5 years Turners possibly wouldn't pay any divies .... and after the sun sets may not be much left when the market reopens


Just imagine games are good ..... premortem games (analysis) are very good

[BlackPeter]

If the market closes down for 5 years Turners possibly wouldn't pay any divies .... and after the sun sets may not be much left when the market reopens


Mind to expand on that?

What observation from their books or which industry trend is telling you they would not pay a dividend and lose value?

I'd love to learn more about your premortem analysis games ...

[winner69]

Mind to expand on that?

What observation from their books or which industry trend is telling you they would not pay a dividend and lose value?

I'd love to learn more about your premortem analysis games ...

Was just thinking that they wouldn’t need to keep paying divies to keep the share price up and pay down debt .. ...but then Baker and his mates might need the cash so you might continue to get yours as well.

I was just imagining that there might not be much left when the market reopens

[Jaa]

14/9/2017 - Management raises $25m from institutions at $3.02 and a derisory $5m from shareholders in a SPP one month later for:


• Continued growth of the Turners finance book, which is currently expanding at approximately $10 million of receivables per month; and
• Strategic dealer and property acquisitions to grow the distribution network and capabilities of the Automotive Retail Division.


27/11/2018- Just over a year later, management announce a share buyback programme, of up to 5% of its issued share capital (4.474m shares). Around $12m at the then share price of $2.72 because:


Chairman of Turner’s, Grant Baker, commented that the Board continued to believe that the share price did not appropriately reflect the fundamentals of the business.

“The Board believes that the purchase of shares, at current market prices, provides a return above the company’s cost of capital and will be value enhancing for shareholders. Turners is in a strong financial position and the buyback is seen as an efficient use of capital while the share price remains below the intrinsic value of the business. It provides a means to return capital to shareholders, while benefiting those who continue to hold shares in the company.”

26/02/2019 - Share price closes at 2.20.


Not been great capital management has it?

[winner69]

Good to see Australia instos supporting Turners ....keeping the share price up

The ASX listing was a blessing in disguise after all

[winner69]

14/9/2017 - Management raises $25m from institutions at $3.02 and a derisory $5m from shareholders in a SPP one month later for:



27/11/2018- Just over a year later, management announce a share buyback programme, of up to 5% of its issued share capital (4.474m shares). Around $12m at the then share price of $2.72 because:



26/02/2019 - Share price closes at 2.20.


Not been great capital management has it?

Suppose you should include the $20m plus that loyal Turnerites ploughed into the company as part of their bond conversions (at $2.85 and $2.95)

[Snoopy]

Hi all Todd Hunter here....I think it is worth just clarifying the safeguard guidelines that we adhere to in regard to the Buyback...there are no "tricks" going on.



Turners will only buy back Shares through NZX’s trading/order matching system and during normal trading hours (i.e. there will be no off-market transactions).
Shares will not be purchased at a price which is more than 10% above the average closing price for Shares on the NZSX over the previous five trading days.
Turners will not take part in the opening transaction on a trading day.
it is intended that the purchases by Turners over a one week period will not exceed 30% of the volume of Shares traded over that one week period.


The Management and Directors believe this is a good use of our capital at present.

Thanks
Todd

On 28th November 2018, TRA announced a buyback of up to 5% of the company's shares. That amounts to a maximum of 4,474,000 shares.
The buyback is due to end on 31st March 2019, in 33 days time. The buyback actually started on 2nd December 2018, so has been running for 86 days. So far, 2,086,567 shares have been acquired and cancelled. If the rate at which shares are acquired remains constant, how many will have been acquired by TRA before the 31st March 2019 balance date?




Maximum BoughtActual + Projected Bought


Shares on Issue 01-12-201889,442,15489,442,154


less Actual Shares bought to 26-02-2019(2,086,567)


less Projected Shares bought to 31-03-2019(800,659)


less Maximum Shares bought to 31-03-2019(4,474,000)


equals Shares Outstanding to 31-03-201984,968,15486,554,928



Of course, there is no reason in particular why Turners should keep buying their own shares at the same rate as they were doing before. They may increase their buying rate to bring the total shares acquired up to the maximum. If Milford owned 6,777,710 shares representing 7.995% of TRA shares on 03/03/2018 and they now own 6,021,281m representing 6.850% shares on 13/02/2019 then Milford still retain a lot more shares they can sell back to Turners on market.

SNOOPY

P.S. If Milford held that many shares last year, can anyone explain why they were not listed as a substantial holder on page 87 in the FY2018 annual report?
Answer: It has now emerged that the Annual Report was changed some date after the hard copy was sent out to shareholders. In the revised edition available on the TRA website, both Milford and Salt Funds are listed as substantial shareholders.

[peat]

O If Milford held that many shares last year, can anyone explain why they were not listed as a substantial holder on page 87 in the FY2018 annual report?

7.99%

they might hold them under nominees listed on pg 86 ??

[Marilyn Munroe]

Disintermediation. A long word that is wrecking the furniture in the used car sales world.

Back in the day when a movie star wanted to travel by plane to promote her films she would go to a travel agent, now she would bypass the agent and book directly with the airline on the internet.

Same thing is happening in the used car business. For a while it was assumed the new efficient model was an ordinary Kiwi joker wanting to buy a used car would bypass the used car dealer and their margin by raising his finger at a vehicle auction. Hasn't worked.

Nowdays this kiwi joker is more likely to look on the internet to find the used car of his dreams.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[percy]

The internet has replaced newspaper classified ads.
Turners have a strong internet sales chanel.
Buy your car online with 7 day money back gurantee.
Finance and insurance arranged too.
Turners are NZ largest used car seller,and their most trusted "brand" has been earnt by offering great ease of tranactions either from their yards or online.

[Snoopy]

they might hold them under nominees listed on pg 86 ??


With no other possibilities I can see, I guess your answer is right Peat! But something still stinks here.

In the 'Substantial Positions ' List:

1/ 'Bartel Holdings' is is shown as holding 7.95% of Turners Automotive Group shares, and holding 7.95% on the Principal Ordinary Shareholders list (p86) as well. This is what I would expect.
2/ 'The Business Bakery' was listed as holding 9.98% of TRA shares on 15th June 2018, yet there is no such entry in the Principal Ordinary Shareholders list. I can only assume 'The Business Bakery' shareholding is held under different nominee entities, none of which exceed the 5% threshold substantial security threshold individually. However in aggregate these holdings do add up to more than 5%. In fact when aggregated, these holdings total 9.98%. So, quite correctly, the registry have been aggregated 'The Business Bakery' holdings so that all shareholders are aware that they are substantial shareholders.
3/ There is no mention of 'Milford Asset Management' being a substantial holder on either list. Yet we know they were from Milford's own declarations made either side of the 15th June 2018 list publication date. We also know they did not sell some of the 7.995% shares they owned on 03/03/2018 after 03/03/2018 to get below the substantial share threshold of 5% on 15/06/2018 (the shareholder list publication date). We know this because any such a change in shareholding from a substantial shareholder must be notified to the market.

So why were shareholders not told that Milford were substantial shareholders in the FY2018 annual report? It wasn't Milford's fault, because they made all the legal declarations they needed to make to the NZX. Shareholders were entitled to be given Milford's shareholding status up front. Milford have a known track record of selling down aggressively under some circumstances (like right now). Who was it that 'dropped the ball' on publishing Milford's shareholding?

SNOOPY

[percy]

I agree with Peat.
At the 31st January NZ Central Securities Depository Ltd held 24,874,642 shares or 24.6599%.[which would include Milford's]
The next largest shareholder is Bartel holdings ;who have a director] with 9,552,642 or 10.7715%.
Bartel were Turners Auctions shareholders.

[winner69]

Snoops ..if you think something dodgy going on you had better sell your shares

[BlackPeter]

Disintermediation. A long word that is wrecking the furniture in the used car sales world.

Back in the day when a movie star wanted to travel by plane to promote her films she would go to a travel agent, now she would bypass the agent and book directly with the airline on the internet.

Same thing is happening in the used car business. For a while it was assumed the new efficient model was an ordinary Kiwi joker wanting to buy a used car would bypass the used car dealer and their margin by raising his finger at a vehicle auction. Hasn't worked.

Nowdays this kiwi joker is more likely to look on the internet to find the used car of his dreams.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

Interesting.

If I look at Turners most recent financial report (2019HY) , than yes, they made 2/3 of their revenue with automotive retail, but only (roughly) 1/3rd (well - 34.9%) of their operating profit.

The other contributors to their operating profit have been:

Finance - 23.6%
Insurance - 27.9%
Credit dep - 13.5%

The automative retail is clearly not their cash cow but their (so to speak) vehicle to give them access to clients in need of finance and insurance. Their business is the package deal.

I don't know how many of their cars they sell as pure cash sells and without Motorsure (which would be in direct competition to TradeMe), but I would expect it is quite a small number.

But you are right - this trend will definitely be a problem for the smaller dealers who need to live of a shrinking automotive retail margin without the option to make the gains with insurance and finance. Expect a market consolidation - this could be a prime opportunity for Turners to increase their footprint.

[blackcap]

With no other possibilities I can see, I guess your answer is right Peat! But something still stinks here.



So why were shareholders not told that Milford were substantial shareholders in the FY2018 annual report? It wasn't Milford's fault, because they made all the legal declarations they needed to make to the NZX. Shareholders were entitled to be given Milford's shareholding status up front. Milford have a known track record of selling down aggressively under some circumstances (like right now). Who was it that 'dropped the ball' on publishing Milford's shareholding?

SNOOPY

Possibly because Milford Asset Management do not own the shares but the following entities:

Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.606%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (2.520%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford
Income Wholesale Fund (1.339%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians), Milford
Australian
Absolute Growth Wholesale Fund (0.194%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford
Australian Absolute Growth Fund (0.336%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians)

They may be listed in a variety of nominees. Although Milford the Fund manager do know that they need to aggregate these for reporting purposes.

I do not have a problem with this at all. I as a shareholder can see by announcements to the NZX that Milford is a SSH!. The Annual Report is 2 months out of date anyway so has little relevance to me the investor.

[Beagle]

. A long word that is wrecking the furniture in the used car sales world.

Back in the day when a movie star wanted to travel by plane to promote her films she would go to a travel agent, now she would bypass the agent and book directly with the airline on the internet.

Same thing is happening in the used car business. For a while it was assumed the new efficient model was an ordinary Kiwi joker wanting to buy a used car would bypass the used car dealer and their margin by raising his finger at a vehicle auction. Hasn't worked.

Nowdays this kiwi joker is more likely to look on the internet to find the used car of his dreams.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disintermediation

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

I agree with you Marilyn. CEO of Trade Me told NZ shareholders presentation late last year that they have well over 90% of all vehicle listings in the N.Z. market. Quite a number of things result from this.
Customers ability to search by make, model and type and make direct price comparisons across the whole of N.Z. is greatly enhanced
Private sellers without overheads are able to compete much more freely
Private dealers operating at a low scale and ultra low overheads can compete much more efficiently
Second hand vehicles dealers margins get compressed.
Trade Me now has a partnership with Motor Trade Finance removing the need to go to a dealer to get finance. Note this is a relatively new initiative so the full effect of this is yet to make itself felt in second hand car dealers yards around the country.
Disintermediation - Interesting term, thank you for sharing.

[couta1]

She's going lower.

[percy]

I agree with you Marilyn. CEO of Trade Me told NZ shareholders presentation late last year that they have well over 90% of all vehicle listings in the N.Z. market. Quite a number of things result from this.
Customers ability to search by make, model and type and make direct price comparisons across the whole of N.Z. is greatly enhanced
Private sellers without overheads are able to compete much more freely
Private dealers operating at a low scale and ultra low overheads can compete much more efficiently
Second hand vehicles dealers margins get compressed.
Trade Me now has a partnership with Motor Trade Finance removing the need to go to a dealer to get finance. Note this is a relatively new initiative so the full effect of this is yet to make itself felt in second hand car dealers yards around the country.
Disintermediation - Interesting term, thank you for sharing.
Retailers such as Briscoes and HLG have adapted to online.{including overses competition].
Big part of their business.
So is the case with Turners.
HGH,and other finaniers also offer car/appliances etc loans online.
The big difference is TRA offer the "whole" package including a 7 day money back gurantee.They are the leaders in their field,and I think I read they were growing market share..
.

[percy]

She's going lower.

I must not buy more...lol.

[Beagle]

Retailers such as Briscoes and HLG have adapted to online.{including overses competition].
Big part of their business.
So is the case with Turners.
HGH,and other finaniers also offer car/appliances etc loans online.
The big difference is TRA offer the "whole" package including a 7 day money back gurantee.They are the leaders in their field,and I think I read they were growing market share..
.

If you're buying a $30 widget are you going to take the trouble to compare prices through channels other than your local HLG or Briscoes store ? Probably not.
If you're going to buy a $30,000 motor vehicle are you going to cross shop every possible option through every possible channel, quite probably.
For this reason I think HLG and Briscoes are far less vulnerable to dsintermediation.

[percy]

If you're buying a $30 widget are you going to take the trouble to compare prices through channels other than your local HLG or Briscoes store ? Probably not.
If you're going to buy a $30,000 motor vehicle are you going to cross shop every possible option through every possible channel, quite probably.
For this reason I think HLG and Briscoes are far less vulnerable to dsintermediation.

Not so.
The leavers ball at Riccarton High last year.Every or nearly every girl brought their ball gown from USA.
Turners sell cars mainly under under $20,000.
I expect there would be few people buying a car who did not inspect it first.
Turners have the most trusted brand,and their online sales offers a 7 day money back gurantee.
It appears to me Turners are well ahead of the field, when it comes to footprint,both physical and online.
This is why they are the largest sellers of second hand vehicles in NZ,and their growth strategy means their market share will grow.

[Beagle]

At the risk of overstating the obvious a ball gown is not a $30 widget. Time will tell with this one.

[winner69]

She's going lower.

Jeez it it hits BlackPeter’s stop loss there will be carnage

[couta1]

Jeez it it hits BlackPeter’s stop loss there will be carnage Or our friend mm's one.

[winner69]

Or our friend mm's one.

Both Mm and BP selling ......REAL CARNAGE

And the company can only buy a relatively small %age of them ....its up to you and Percy in the absence of insiders buying to save the day

[Snoopy]

Possibly because Milford Asset Management do not own the shares but the following entities:

Milford Active Growth Wholesale Fund (3.606%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford NZ Equities Wholesale Fund (2.520%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford
Income Wholesale Fund (1.339%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians), Milford
Australian
Absolute Growth Wholesale Fund (0.194%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians),
Milford
Australian Absolute Growth Fund (0.336%), (Custodian - NNL Custodians)


Thanks for the above break down. Confirms Peat was right.



They may be listed in a variety of nominees. Although Milford the Fund manager do know that they need to aggregate these for reporting purposes.

I do not have a problem with this at all. I as a shareholder can see by announcements to the NZX that Milford is a SSH!. The Annual Report is 2 months out of date anyway so has little relevance to me the investor.


If all other substantial shareholders have to be 'named' come annual report time, I don't see why Milford should be left out, I don't think that shareholders should have to look back over a year or more of press releases just to find out who the substantial shareholders are, I don't think shareholders reading the list of substantial shareholders in the annual report would expect it to be incomplete.

Last years annual report was released on 28th June. The table in the annual report listed shareholders on record as at 15th June. So the shareholder table was only twelve days old, not two months out of date as you suggested.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

10347
Picture says a 1000 words. That's just plain UGLY.

[percy]

Complain to NZX.
Years ago SCY company secretary upset NZCSD by sending them one annual report.
They asked for more.
He said sorry you only have one entry.
Name the others and I will send the correct number of reports.
We can't do that.
His reply was classic; "tough".

[winner69]

A year ago loyal dealers got 30,914 Turners shares as a reward for referring punters to Turners finance and insurance business. That was thevreward for the last half of 2017.

Wonder if this scheme still in operation .....and wonder if getting Turners shares achieves ‘a strong sense of ownership from the dealer channel and aligns our objectives.’

Hope these dealers don’t sell their hard earned shares.

PS - wonder where the shares came from ....Turners don’t appear to have issued any for this purpose ...must have had a few spare ones lying in the bottom drawer

[blackcap]

Complain to NZX.
Years ago SCY company secretary upset NZCSD by sending them one annual report.
They asked for more.
He said sorry you only have one entry.
Name the others and I will send the correct number of reports.
We can't do that.
His reply was classic; "tough".

LOL of the day for me. That is one cool anecdote. Suck on thast NZCSD!

[Snoopy]

Turners Auctions (TUA) + Turners Limited (TNR/TRA)FY2014FY2015FY2016
FY2017FY2018


Modelled Dividend Paid {A}$2.131m


No. Shares on Issue (TNR/TRA) {B} (*)55.966m63.077m63.433m74.524m84.803m


Normalised Earnings Per Share 6.8c19.4c24.2c22.5c25.6c


Modelled Dividend Paid (cps) {A}/{B}3.81c


Actual Dividend Paid (cps) (**)5c + 4c6c + 6c7c + 3c +3c]4c + 4.5c +3c +3c




(*) The number of TNR shares on isssue at the end of the financial year has been adjusted retrospectively for the 10:1 share consolidation. To see how the number of TRA shares on issue was derived refer to my post 1414 "Buffett Test 2: Increasing 'eps' Trend (FY2016 perspective): Preamble Part 2.

(**) The actual dividends paid by TNR/TRA over FY2015 and FY2016 were unimputed. This was because of prior losses incurred under the DPC/TNR/TRA structure. However, in my modelling the TUA group was already combined with DPC/TNR/TRA. Previous year TUA profits wiped out those previous year equivalent DPC/TNR/TRA losses. Under this modelled scenario, those FY2015 and FY2016 dividends would have been fully imputed. That's because looking at the combined picture, those prior offsetting DPC/TNR/TRA losses never happened. Further note that all dividends have been adjusted retrospectively to account for the 23rd March 2016 10:1 share consolidation.

From the above table the 'five year average' dividend payout was:

(3.81c + 9c + 12c + 13c +14.5c)/ 5 = 10.46c (net)

Average Gross Dividend Yield (based on a 28% tax rate) is therefore:

10.46/(1-0.28) = 14.53c

Using a capitalized value gross interest rate of 7.5% (see thread An Investment Story - Geneva/Turners/Heartland, post 40), this translates to a fair value share price of:

14.53c/ 0.075 = $1.94

As previously noted, I no longer believe this valuation method provides a satisfactory technique for valuing Turners Automotive Group. This is because the retained earnings of TRA are employed in growing the business, and this valuation method ignores that contribution. So why do it?

If you were able to pick up some TUA shares at $1.94, this could be justified on a dividend return basis alone. That means any growth that shareholders would get going forwards would come 'for free'. However, I don't fancy my chances of picking up many TRA shares at that price. At today's closing price of $3.05, that means the price you pay for the TRA growth premium is:

$3.05 - $1.94 = $1.11

Is it worth it? That is the next question I will seek to answer.





Turners Automotive Group (TNR/TRA)FY2015FY2016FY2017
FY2018FY2019


No. Shares on Issue EOFY (TNR/TRA) (*)63.077m63.432m74.524m84.803m86.555m (est)


Normalised Earnings Per Share {A}13.6c24.2c21.8c22.5c20.1c (est)


Actual Dividend Paid (cps) {B} (**)5c + 4c6c + 6c7c + 3c +3c4c + 4.5c +3c +3c
4.5c + 5c +4c +4c


Normalised Earnings Retained {A}-(B) (cps)4.6c12.2c8.8c8.0c2.6c (est)




(*) The number of TNR shares on issue at the end of the financial year has been adjusted retrospectively for the 23rd March 2016 10:1 share consolidation. To see how the number of TRA shares on issue was derived for FY2015, refer to my post 1413 "Buffett Test 2: Increasing 'eps' Trend (FY2016 perspective): Preamble Part 2.

(**) The actual dividends paid by TNR/TRA over FY2015 and FY2016 were unimputed. This was because of prior losses incurred under the DPC/TNR/TRA structure. However, in my modelling the TUA group was already combined with DPC/TNR/TRA. Previous year TUA profits wiped out those previous year equivalent DPC/TNR/TRA losses. Under this modelled scenario, those FY2015 and FY2016 dividends would have been fully imputed. That's because looking at the combined picture, those prior offsetting DPC/TNR/TRA losses never happened.

From the above table the 'five year average' dividend payout was:

(9c + 12c + 13c +14.5c + 17.5c)/ 5 = 13.20c (net)

Average Gross Dividend Yield (based on a 28% tax rate) is therefore:

13.20/(1-0.28) = 18.33c

Using a capitalized value gross interest rate of 7.5% (see thread An Investment Story - Geneva/Turners/Heartland, post 40), this translates to a fair value share price of:

18.33c/ 0.075 = $2.44

Last year, I stated that I no longer believed this valuation method provided a satisfactory technique for valuing Turners Automotive Group. This was because the retained earnings of TRA are employed in growing the business, and this valuation method ignores that contribution.

With the share price today trading some 10% below this equivalent $2.44 valuation figure -a figure based only on historical dividend payments-, one could interpret this to mean that the 'retained earnings' part of the profit generated has been squandered and for share valuation purposes should be considered worthless.

More specifically during FY2018 the setting aside of the last part of the earn out consideration for 'But Right Cars' ($1.9m) has cast some doubt on how successful this acquisition will continue to be. Furthermore the market does not seem convinced that the 'Autosure' insurance acquisition is adding value. Or perhaps these two acquisitions are adding value, but insufficient value to compensate for declines in other established areas of the business? However, you interpret the YOY share price decline, the market doesn't like what it sees. Whether there is any evidence that any profit decline for FY2019 is permanent or even real has not been established. I think given a more medium term outlook the market is wrong. IMO we will be looking at a case of 'sell the rumor', 'buy the fact' when the annual TRA result is released in June.

SNOOPY

[Mickey]

I hit my stop loss yesterday and sold at 2.20. I invest primarily for yield rather than for price gain but the gap between my entry point and the share price was widening and I wasn't prepared to average down to reduce that gap (until I can better understand what is happening) or to wait for the share price to recover (if it ever does). I was taught a valuable but costly lesson with NZR a couple of years ago on that. TRA fundamentals look solid but something isn't quite right here and so I redeployed my capital into another share paying similar yield that looked like it was near the bottom of its recent downward cycle (SPK).

Good luck to all holders. I'll be watching this one with interest and may look at re-investing once things stabilize.

[blackcap]

looks like Paul needs a new car?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331195/295855.pdf

[percy]

Perhaps a new Holden.?

[blackcap]

Perhaps a new Holden.?

A Calais model perhaps?

[percy]

A Calais model perhaps?

Maybe a cheap one with 800 klms on the clock,and a new motor.
10 year guarantee.?
ps mums the word.

[winner69]

Insiders selling ........hmmmm

Sell oeder still incomplete?

As they say buy when directors buy so is it sell when directors sell.

[winner69]

Byrnes did well. ,,,.got $2.33 for his shares (only 30,000 though)

[percy]

Insiders selling ........hmmmm

Sell oeder still incomplete?

As they say buy when directors buy so is it sell when directors sell.

The market agrees.
Have you sold your's.?

ps.On no news I am sitting on mine.
pps.Have you kept an eye on the new Wellington site.?

[forest]

Insiders selling ........hmmmm

Sell oeder still incomplete?

As they say buy when directors buy so is it sell when directors sell.

How do you tell winner that the sell order is incomplete?

[winner69]

How do you tell winner that the sell order is incomplete?

Don’t know but a good question

Just seems when somebody of his standing and means and who owns zillions of shares sells a paltry 30,000 of them

Maybe the rumour about a new Holden is true ...hope he gets through Turners as that gives him a guarantee I’m told.

[minimoke]

Jeez it it hits BlackPeter’s stop loss there will be carnage
I'ev got a bit fuehr to go before mine is hit. Which will be disappointing. Bought / sold my first lot last year and took the loss. If this is the second it will be the last.

[Balance]

Don’t know but a good question

Just seems when somebody of his standing and means and who owns zillions of shares sells a paltry 30,000 of them

Maybe the rumour about a new Holden is true ...hope he gets through Turners as thatbgives him a guarantee I’m told.


Not a stock I follow - happy to leave the Baker boys to this one - after escaping with nice gains in Trilogy which would now be a disaster!

However, thought I would ask around after noting the burst of comments on the ever declining share price.

May or may not be useful information - a car dealer told me this morning that the used car industry is under huge margin pressures.

Far too many players (NZ has the most relaxed used car import regime in the world bar none) in the industry and new car prices have also been dropping in response to the competitive conditions.

TRA is exposed to this market in more ways than one obviously but Right Cars division is mentioned by this car dealer as one with severe aged inventory needing to be marked down.

He said Right Cars had bought a lot of very high mileage stock which allowed the previous owners to make huge profits. Turners is still grappling with the problem.

Read into it what you will.

[minimoke]

looks like Paul needs a new car?

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331195/295855.pdfA sign he has totally lost faith in the sell down strategy and the ability of the co. to turn this ship away from the rocks.

Seems to me now not a matter of if Stop loss will be hit, but when.

[percy]

Not a stock I follow - happy to leave the Baker boys to this one - after escaping with nice gains in Trilogy which would now be a disaster!

However, thought I would ask around after noting the burst of comments on the ever declining share price.

May or may not be useful information - a car dealer told me this morning that the used car industry is under huge margin pressures.

Far too many players (NZ has the most relaxed used car import regime in the world bar none) in the industry and new car prices have also been dropping in response to the competitive conditions.

TRA is exposed to this market in more ways than one obviously but Right Cars division is mentioned by this car dealer as one with severe aged inventory needing to be marked down.

He said Right Cars had bought a lot of very high mileage stock which allowed the previous owners to make huge profits. Turners is still grappling with the problem.

Read into it what you will.

Thanks Balance.
Your friend confirms what I have heard,tough market with small players closing shop.
Turners have acknowledged and been up front with the BuyRight Cars old stock issue,and infact they adjusted the final buyout price considerably because of it.

[percy]

A sign he has totally lost faith in the sell down strategy and the ability of the co. to turn this ship away from the rocks.

Seems to me now not a matter of if Stop loss will be hit, but when.

You better be quick and sell.Remember W69 is a big seller at $1.60.
Perhaps that is Beagle on the buy side waiting at $1.60.?

[winner69]

I'ev got a bit fuehr to go before mine is hit. Which will be disappointing. Bought / sold my first lot last year and took the loss. If this is the second it will be the last.

Third time you might be lucky

[Beagle]

Not a stock I follow - happy to leave the Baker boys to this one - after escaping with nice gains in Trilogy which would now be a disaster!

However, thought I would ask around after noting the burst of comments on the ever declining share price.

May or may not be useful information - a car dealer told me this morning that the used car industry is under huge margin pressures.

Far too many players (NZ has the most relaxed used car import regime in the world bar none) in the industry and new car prices have also been dropping in response to the competitive conditions.

TRA is exposed to this market in more ways than one obviously but Right Cars division is mentioned by this car dealer as one with severe aged inventory needing to be marked down.

He said Right Cars had bought a lot of very high mileage stock which allowed the previous owners to make huge profits. Turners is still grappling with the problem.

Read into it what you will.

Lines up with I have heard from industry participants. I expect manufactures will be looking to introduce even greater incentives in 2019 as new vehicle sales slow. Some manufactures in the US for example currently offering interest free finance for 7 years ! If you can buy a small new fuel efficient car like a Suzuki Swift on similar on multi year interest free terms for $20K why would you bother with some old clanger that requires heaps more fuel and maintenance for $15K which when you finance with full interest costs means you're paying more money left, right and centre…

Interesting that the deputy chair is selling despite being entitled to receive over $500K per annum in dividends on his holding. Really begs the question of what is going on inside the company in my mind.

[couta1]

You better be quick and sell.Remember W69 is a big seller at $1.60.
Perhaps that is Beagle on the buy side waiting at $1.60.? Lucky I'm in the position of not being able to sell unless I wanted to do a Milford and give them away but then they are playing with other people's money so no real skin in the game.

[Joshuatree]

Was reading Trademe results today (good, in line with guidance , sale to Apac progressing) and the one blip was motors
"Trade Me Motors, our largest classified vertical, reported another excellent result with revenue increasing by 8.8 per cent year-on-year. This result was also underpinned by great growth in our depth products. We have however seen a slowdown in the market since November, which we have taken into consideration in our outlook below."

[BlackPeter]

Jeez it it hits BlackPeter’s stop loss there will be carnage

Admittedly - it did today and I subsequently lightened up a bit (never ignore what your board is doing ;)); Bought some Heartland shares instead - couldn't resist buying into an uptrend.

However - still holding a medium sized parcel and - given my track record of selling into downtrends - this might well be the day the trend is changing ;);

If it does - all credit to me ...

[kiwico]

Turners have the most trusted brand,and their online sales offers a 7 day money back guarantee.

The guarantee seems generous. The ability to buy and return plus locations around the country seems to negate the need for a rental car if heading to a different part of the country...

[blackcap]

The guarantee seems generous. The ability to buy and return plus locations around the country seems to negate the need for a rental car if heading to a different part of the country...

Hahah classic. I am guessing they would keep a database of recidivist "offenders" but I like your thinking there. Wonder what the "signup" hassle is and if it is worse than the obligatory paperwork at a rental company. Might have to give it a whirl for oldtimes sake next time I am considering a drive to Auckland.

[minimoke]

The guarantee seems generous. The ability to buy and return plus locations around the country seems to negate the need for a rental car if heading to a different part of the country...I've heard similar tales from the Warehouse - where clothing or toys or a TV is needed for the weekend, only to be returned on Monday morning.

[percy]

I've heard similar tales from the Warehouse - where clothing or toys or a TV is needed for the weekend, only to be returned on Monday morning.

Ballantynes used to have that problem with expensive dinner sets.

[winner69]

Has the share price ever been this low before?

[percy]

Has the share price ever been this low before?

Don't know whether www.stocknessmonster.com 10 year chart is correct,but the sp went down to these levels in 2013,and 2014.
Increased from 50 cents in 2009 up to $3 in 2012.
We live in interesting times.

ps.The Turners end of life yard in Curries Road not far from us has cars stacked up 3 high on a large frame and always looks full.I expect they are going gangbusters with insurance wreck sales.Big ticket Turners clip.

[Beagle]

Was $3.89 in Feb 2017. Fabulous total shareholder return since then.

[winner69]

Was $3.89 in Feb 2017. Fabulous total shareholder return since then.

Well it’s taken 2 years to fall that much ......so a long grinding down process

To every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction ......didn’t Buffett say that?

Keeping the faith ....but wish Baker and his Singapore mate would pull finger and find a buyer ...I’d be happy with 240 now

[Balance]

Well it’s taken 2 years to fall that much ......so a long grinding down process

To every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction ......didn’t Buffett say that?

Keeping the faith ....but wish Baker and his Singapore mate would pull finger and find a buyer ...I’d be happy with 240 now

Would you buy something from the Baker boys after Trilogy?

[Beagle]

Well it’s taken 2 years to fall that much ......so a long grinding down process

To every action there’s an equal and opposite reaction ......didn’t Buffett say that?

Keeping the faith ....but wish Baker and his Singapore mate would pull finger and find a buyer ...I’d be happy with 240 now

Newton's third law mate. He had a bit to say about momentum in his first law too, something that TRA shareholders are being "treated" too with fresh ongoing multi year low's on a regular basis.

Mate of mine told me that momentum is a very powerful force in the market, I believe that was you !

[percy]

"Always looks the darkest before the dawn".


ps.
Looks mighty dark right now.!!...

[percy]

Would you buy something from the Baker boys after Trilogy?

Yes certainly did very nicely with TIL.
You did too.!

[Beagle]

"Always looks the darkest before the dawn".


ps.
Looks mighty dark right now.!!...

Not compelling enough a case as a yield stock at present in my opinion. 17 / 0.72 = 23.61 / 217 = 10.88% gross
How does that compare with a couple of other well known dividend hound stocks, both with a vastly longer track record of being good dividend payers ?
AIR - expected dividends 22 cps fully imputed / 0.72 = 30.56 cps gross and on $2.57 last time I looked that's 11.9% gross.
HLG - expected divvies this year 24 cps paid December 2018 expecting 20 cps in April 2019, total 44 cps / 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross which on $4.09 gives 14.9%.
Of course you could argue that these sort of dividends are not sustainable by AIR or HLG but the same argument could very easily be applied to TRA.

Various price points for required yield to make TRA compelling as a dividend hounds stock, choose your required rate of return compared to other alternatives.
12% gross = SP of $1.97 = equal return to AIR
15% gross = SP of $1.57 = equal return to HLG
13% is $1.82 or 14% $1.69 for those expecting different yields for the risk involved.

Of all 3 alternatives I think HLG looks the best to me not only in terms of yield but also they are growing sales in a tough market and have an awful lot of runs on the board over a vast amount of time in terms of delivering the goods.

Conclusion - TRA is still quite some way away from being a buy for me in terms of being a compelling yield investment. We will see if the trend continues long enough to tempt me back in. I think its going to get a fair bit darker yet.

[winner69]

"Always looks the darkest before the dawn".


ps.
Looks mighty dark right now.!!...

Mark Knopfler of Dire Straits penned this in one of my favourite songs Why Worry -

Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
There should a new high Turners share price after going down the drain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

[percy]

Mark Knopfler of Dire Straits penned this in one of my favourite songs Why Worry -

Why worry
There should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
There should a new high Turners share price after going down the drain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

He is right .!!

[Balance]

Yes certainly did very nicely with TIL.
You did too.!

Haha - which is why you will not see me chancing it again with the Baker boys!

[winner69]

What we need is Craig’s to put out a note on Turners with a BUY on it. They have enough loyal clients who follow their advice, esp the BUYs

That trick seems to have worked for Heartland and thl recently

I’ll give Mark a buzz tomorrow

[kiwico]

I've heard similar tales from the Warehouse - where clothing or toys or a TV is needed for the weekend, only to be returned on Monday morning.

Why just the weekend when you've got a year to return the goods? I've even seen someone return a dirty coffee cup. And invariably you get paid back more than you've spent if you used the 5% discount Warehouse Money card to buy a number of items on one receipt and use a debit card for the refund of just one or two of those items.

But we digress. That's enough about a listed company retailing products apparently not currently wanted by the New Zealand public and whose share price is much lower than a year or two ago...

[couta1]

What we need is Craig’s to put out a note on Turners with a BUY on it. They have enough loyal clients who follow their advice, esp the BUYs

That trick seems to have worked for Heartland and thl recently

I’ll give Mark a buzz tomorrow All we need is BBB activated to turn things around.

[Baa_Baa]

All we need is BBB activated to turn things around.

Yes indeed, he picked the absolute top of HBL to sell and the absolute bottom of HGH to buy, incredible, hopefully he'll broadcast the bottom of TRA, despite having to hear about it endlessly afterwards. LOL, just teasing. The TRA chart is bloody awful, patience patience I keep telling myself.

[winner69]

I still can’t believe Byrnes sold some shares after his passionate speech at the AGM saying that the company’s shares were grossly undervalued by the market (they were about $2.90 then)

Mind you they’ve fallen another 17 cents since he sold last week.

[winner69]

Yes indeed, he picked the absolute top of HBL to sell and the absolute bottom of HGH to buy, incredible, hopefully he'll broadcast the bottom of TRA, despite having to hear about it endlessly afterwards. LOL, just teasing. The TRA chart is bloody awful, patience patience I keep telling myself.

Baabaa ...chart does look awful ......but it’s almost perfect over the last couple of years .....a nice and clean chart.

[Baa_Baa]

Baabaa ...chart does look awful ......but it’s almost perfect over the last couple of years .....a nice and clean chart.

Not sure what you mean by "perfect" or "nice and clean", except maybe text book down trend? All those 'D's on the chart are what keep the faithful engaged regardless of shareprice. Every day lower SP, is a day better yield for a buyer, assuming they don't go bust.

[winner69]

Not sure what you mean by "perfect" or "nice and clean", except maybe text book down trend? All those 'D's on the chart are what keep the faithful engaged regardless of shareprice. Every day lower SP, is a day better yield for a buyer, assuming they don't go bust.

Think that was what I was meaning

[Beagle]

All we need is BBB activated to turn things around.
Bad bearish beagle or beagle busy buying :p

[peat]

With no other possibilities I can see, I guess your answer is right Peat! But something still stinks here.

So why were shareholders not told that Milford were substantial shareholders in the FY2018 annual report?

SNOOPY

It IS there though !!
as i said showing 7.99%

10352

and so is this

10353

actually that chart is from the latest Interim report...

[Snoopy]

It IS there though !!
as i said showing 7.99%

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Hi Peat. I had a look at the on line version of AR2018 and sure enough, I can see that substantial product holders list.on p87 exactly as you have reproduced above. However, I can assure you that in the hard copy of the FY2018 annual report that I was sent last year - the photocopy with the cheap staple in the corner - the information about Milford being a substantial holder was not there. In my copy of the annual report, there is nothing on Salt Funds Management being a 9.29% substantial shareholder either. I didn't know Salt were in there until today!

I would like it if another Turners Automotive Group shareholder who received a hard copy of AR2018 could look and verify what I am saying is true. But it appears the annual report for 2018 on the Turners Automotive Group that is now posted on the TRA website has been changed. Good on Turners for correcting their mistake. But perhaps an acknowledgement and announcement to the NZX that the Annual Report had been changed might have been expected?

SNOOPY

[iceman]

Snoopy has made a serious point here. How on earth does TRA management think it is OK to change the Annual Report without an announcement ? Very poor. One wonders if this was the only change.

[minimoke]

How can they possibly have two versions. If that one point is different what else is? Which one do you trust and rely on?

[BlackPeter]

Snoopy has made a serious point here. How on earth does TRA management think it is OK to change the Annual Report without an announcement ? Very poor. One wonders if this was the only change.

Absolutely. Just for the record - here is a screenshot of page 87 of the 2018AR Turners released on June 28th to the NZX:

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and here is the link: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/320060/281878.pdf

Great that NZX is keeping copies these days for more than 6 months - isn't it?

I couldn't find any later announcemnt re an updated report.

Just wondering @Todd.Hunter - any chance you could help us to shed a bit of light into this process and clarify when the report has been changed and what else has been modified?

[winner69]

The one still up on the NZX Announcements is the ‘unrevised’ version as well.

They also stuffed up the last Interim Report and had to put up a new version. At least they told punters about that

Pretty slack

Turners - the company that’s always fixing things up.

Hopeless lot

[winner69]

Must look at the updated Interim to see what they changed .....might have been something major.

[percy]

The one still up on the NZX Announcements is the ‘unrevised’ version as well.

They also stuffed up the last Interim Report and had to put up a new version. At least they told punters about that

Pretty slack

Turners - the company that’s always fixing things up.

Hopeless lot

Should anyone bother to check the share registry's list of shareholders, you will not see either Milford or Salt's holdings.
They are included in NZCSD's holding.

[winner69]

Should anyone bother to check the share registry's list of shareholders, you will not see either Milford or Salt's holdings.
They are included in NZCSD's holding.

Yes but they stuffed up their obligation to list all Substantial Holders >5% and Milford and Salt are those.

Never mind mistakes happen ...but Turners seem to make a lot of them

[BlackPeter]

Yes but they stuffed up their obligation to list all Substantial Holders >5% and Milford and Salt are those.

Never mind mistakes happen ...but Turners seem to make a lot of them

I guess I am more worried about them secretly fixing their mistakes and updating the document and hoping nobody is finding out instead of rereleasing the document ...

Questions would be: When did they find the mistake? When did they update the document? Did they update any other material information we did not discover yet? Why did they not inform the stock exchange about the updates - I guess sending them an email and attaching the updated document (and maybe a list of changes) can't be that hard - can it?

The list of substantial shareholders is clearly material information - and so far I don't see why they tried to conceal their changes and why they thought they can get away with not making sure every shareholder is aware of this information.

[winner69]

Maybe they learnt from their mistakes because when they stuffed up the Interim Report they reissued a new one and told punters where the changes were.

Must look at what changed in the Notes re Fair Value Disclosures .....hmm ....might be important to know.

Turners .,..champions of trying to fix things up.

[McGinty]

Absolutely. Just for the record - here is a screenshot of page 87 of the 2018AR Turners released on June 28th to the NZX:

10354

and here is the link: http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/320060/281878.pdf

Great that NZX is keeping copies these days for more than 6 months - isn't it?

I couldn't find any later announcemnt re an updated report.

Just wondering @Todd.Hunter - any chance you could help us to shed a bit of light into this process and clarify when the report has been changed and what else has been modified?


Mid Sep last year (just prior to the AGM) I notice the same missing SPH and contacted the company about this and another discrepancy I found.

They agreed that I was correct in the below response, as to updating the market on changes well.... :confused:

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[Snoopy]

Despite what I wrote above, I am generally comfortable with a company having lots of intangible assets on the books provided:

1/ The assets were bought at the right price.
2/ The businesses that Turners acquired have continued to grow.

My one cause for concern is 'Buy Right Cars'. Turners management have acknowledged that it has not performed up to expectations and that the management has been replaced. There is over $10m in 'Buy Right' goodwill on the Turners books ($10.860m to be excat AR2018 p60). This is tested annually by the auditors, who check whether such value can be justified. So far all is hunky dory. But I did notice a divergence in the growth assumptions for this acquisition going forwards. See AR2018 p65. I tabulate these results against the equivalent assumptions from last year:



Year 1 Forecast CashflowsYear 2 Forecast CashflowsYear 3 Forecast CashflowsYear 3-4 Forecast Cashflows
Year 4 to 5 Forecast CashflowsTerminal Cashflows


FY2017 Perspective10%7.5%5.0%2.0%


FY2018 Perspective60%8.0%5.0%2.0%



The note starts "The year 1 forecast cashflows were extrapolated". I think 'year 1' means the 'current reporting financial year', but am not 100% sure. If I am right then from an FY2018 perspective 'Year 2' means FY2019 (the current financial year). This model is telling us that Turners are budgeting for an increase in cashflows from Buy Right cars of 60% this financial year. That is an enormous increase, even for a company with the growth ambitions of Turners. It is particularly shocking when you realise that only 12 months previously, Turners were looking for an increase of only 7.5% over the same time period. No doubt part of the reason the 'Buy Right' growth rate is forecast to be so high is because FY2018 so was disastrous. Turners are starting from an unexpectedly low base. But even so I think it is a big ask.

The question is, what happens to the 'Buy Right' goodwill if this 60% growth is not achieved? Possibly nothing. But it is also possible that Turners will be facing a multi-million dollar goodwill write down. If it happens it will be a 'non cash item'. But it was real cash, not that long ago! The company might require some recapitalisation if the write down happens. This is a real 'extra risk' for shareholders going forwards IMO.




I guess I am more worried about them secretly fixing their mistakes and updating the document and hoping nobody is finding out instead of re-releasing the document ...


The case of the wildly swinging cash flows used to model the goodwill on the books from 'Buy Right Cars' has not been altered. Refer to page 65 in the annual report to see where I have extracted the information. However, just to show that Turners are not the only entity to get things wrong, I am going to ping myself for not noticing a minus sign (change made in bold) . The table which I wrote, that I wish to correct is republished below:




Valuing the Goodwill on the books for BuyRight Cars



Year 1 Forecast CashflowsYear 2 Forecast CashflowsYear 3 Forecast CashflowsYear 3-4 Forecast Cashflows
Year 4 to 5 Forecast CashflowsTerminal Cashflows


FY2017 Perspective10%7.5%5.0%2.0%


FY2018 Perspective-60%8.0%5.0%2.0%



The corrected version still looks out of context to me. We all know that BuyRight cars have had stock turn issues. But to be modelling cashflows and hence sales to be down by 60% does seem extreme, particularly when that co-incides with the expansion of the 'BuyRight' chain to Hamilton. I wonder if this is a typo and the true figure is -6%?

SNOOPY

PS I notice that in the HY2019 report (that I was sent), that the revenue from external customers was up to $32.218m from $28.958m for the pcp half year. That is a revenue increase of +11.3%.

[BlackPeter]

Admittedly - a bit concerned around the story with the version control and announcements re the annual reports. While I believe that it is just a clerical error and afterwards a somewhat unfortunate judgement call - how do they say: If in doubt - sell;

This I did with my remaining parcel, taking a significant loss. So far TRA is for my portfolio this year, what CBL did for me last year: bigliest destroyer of capital (or of capital gains other companies worked for). On the bright side - I stopped the bleeding in my portfolio which basically concealed all these nice gains I made over the recent days with HGH, SEK, some property companies and not to forget BIN (:)) ... and even over MCK started the sun to smile again;

Don't drink and buy in a downtrend you bl**dy idi*t - Oh, oops, this must be me :blush:

[winner69]

BP ...you did mention capitulation the other day .....seems it was

Good on you for doing what you think is best

[winner69]

At least 215 held today

Hope minimoke’s stop loss is much lower ....don’t want those shares to flood the market

Beagle might be right .....2 bucks or lower he said ....surely not

[winner69]

Nearly $60m has been wiped off Turners market cap since the share buyback announced

The buyback surely fixed the ‘grossly undervalued shares’ problem eh

[RupertBear]

Admittedly - a bit concerned around the story with the version control and announcements re the annual reports. While I believe that it is just a clerical error and afterwards a somewhat unfortunate judgement call - how do they say: If in doubt - sell;

This I did with my remaining parcel, taking a significant loss. So far TRA is for my portfolio this year, what CBL did for me last year: bigliest destroyer of capital (or of capital gains other companies worked for). On the bright side - I stopped the bleeding in my portfolio which basically concealed all these nice gains I made over the recent days with HGH, SEK, some property companies and not to forget BIN (:)) ... and even over MCK started the sun to smile again;

Don't drink and buy in a downtrend you bl**dy idi*t - Oh, oops, this must be me :blush:


Sorry for your loss BP. Yes this has certainly been a stinker share to hold. Thankfully I got out unscathed with this one but only just. I still hold my fair share of capital destroyers, ERD springs to mind! Both have ugly ugly ugly charts but I have yet to muster up your courage and sell out, so good on you for taking action.

[Ggcc]

And I keep waiting in the corner drooling on that dividend percentage. I want to invest but when? Last time we were approx 10 cents higher

[couta1]

Sorry for your loss BP. Yes this has certainly been a stinker share to hold. Thankfully I got out unscathed with this one but only just. I still hold my fair share of capital destroyers, ERD springs to mind! Both have ugly ugly ugly charts but I have yet to muster up your courage and sell out, so good on you for taking action. Hey RB how does an 84k paper loss sound to you minus about 10k of divvies. PS-Im going to need a lot more divvy feeds to break even aren't I.PPS-Bit of a bummer to watch it keep dropping but the milky one has been so good to me over the last few months I'm still a happy chappie.

[RupertBear]

Hey RB how does an 84k paper loss sound to you minus about 10k of divvies. PS-Im going to need a lot more divvy feeds to break even aren't I.PPS-Bit of a bummer to watch it keep dropping but the milky one has been so good to me over the last few months I'm still a happy chappie.

Brings back horrible memories of WYN couta and that wasnt a paper loss :crying::crying: not comparing TRA to WYN but be careful out there happy chappie :)

[winner69]

In times of despair like this just need to remind myself what Newton said - "The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient”

I’m being patient

[couta1]

Brings back horrible memories of WYN couta and that wasnt a paper loss :crying::crying: not comparing TRA to WYN but be careful out there happy chappie :) Everyone selling this is losing money on varying scales starting at $3.80 odd downward.Lol

[minimoke]

At least 215 held today

Hope minimoke’s stop loss is much lower ....don’t want those shares to flood the market

Beagle might be right .....2 bucks or lower he said ....surely not
I'm trying to do my bit (unlike a director) to hold firm and keep sp up. Only consolidation with my inevitable loss is TRA not a large part of my portfolio.

[couta1]

Nearly $60m has been wiped off Turners market cap since the share buyback announced

The buyback surely fixed the ‘grossly undervalued shares’ problem eh It really did fix the problem winner, it's actually made them even more undervalued for us lucky holders.

[winner69]

It really did fix the problem winner, it's actually made them even more undervalued for us lucky holders.

Only if they are actually undervalued .....but didn’t Edison tell us ‘Price is what you pay. Value is what you get’

That gives me hope but still hoping Baker and his Singapore mate are about to sign up a greater fool and we’ll get $2.50

[percy]

Whangarei sharetraders.
Turners new site will be open on Monday 4th March, at Turners Corner,corner Walton Street and Maunu Road.
Any one driving past would you please comment on the site and general presentation.Are they using containers as offices.?
Thank you in advance.

[winner69]

BlackPeter .... at least selling out means you don't have to get grumpy with the inevitiable Scheme of Arrangement with a 'lowball' offer recommended by the Board when it comes

[BlackPeter]

BlackPeter .... at least selling out means you don't have to get grumpy with the inevitiable Scheme of Arrangement with a 'lowball' offer recommended by the Board when it comes

Well yes, last caprise at $3.02 (I think) - which means a Baker Backed Board (Ouch - BBB, again) might well support a takeover around $2.40, if we look into Bakers past (Trilogy). And yes, in TIL's case accepting this lowball offer was good for board and shareholders and bad for the buyer.

Who do you think might bite this time?

[couta1]

A takeover around $2.40 would be a disaster for the majority of shareholders.Lol

[percy]

Well with a market cap of only $187.7 mil at $2.15 I think they would be of interest to either UDC or HGH.

Perhaps a Malaysian,Japanese or Australian group .?
Just wonder if it will be above W69's $1.40 capitulation point.


ps.Maybe HGH could make an all scripe offer.?

[Joshuatree]

Whangarei sharetraders.
Turners new site will be open on Monday 4th March, at Turners Corner,corner Walton Street and Maunu Road.
Any one driving past would you please comment on the site and general presentation.Are they using containers as offices.?
Thank you in advance.

Are they using sleeping bags as offices? Im in the begging house with this stock atm.:scared:

[Beagle]

Well with a market cap of only $187.7 mil at $2.15 I think they would be of interest to either UDC or HGH.

Perhaps a Malaysian,Japanese or Australian group .?
Just wonder if it will be above W69's $1.40 capitulation point.
ps.Maybe HGH could make an all scripe offer.?

Just give it a while and then an all scrip offer at 1:1 lol

[percy]

Think W69 would be the first to accept.!!..lol.

[percy]

Are they using sleeping bags as offices? Im in the begging house with this stock atm.:scared:

Not far from you.
Could be said I am s''tting in the out house.!

[minimoke]

Its the first of MArch so one month to go to achieve the 4.474m share buy back. Any one have any idea how many they have brought to date?

And we should take a moment to reflect on the wise word of our Directors

"“The Board believes that the purchase of shares, at current market prices, provides a return above thecompany’s cost of capital and will be value enhancing for shareholders. Turners is in a strong financialposition and the buyback is seen as an efficient use of capital while the share price remains below theintrinsic value of the business. It provides a means to return capital to shareholders, while benefitingthose who continue to hold shares in the company.”

That was dated 27 November 2018 when the SP was $2.51.Today it languishes at $2.15. A 14% loss in capital value so far.

[percy]

2,339,462 so far.
With them buying at lot lower prices, I expect they will extend the buyback.

[winner69]

Minimoke ...don’t we love this bit — It provides a means to return capital to shareholders, while benefiting those who continue to hold shares in the company.”

Seems that those who have sold are the winners .....and you, me, Percy etc are the big losers

Delusional Board and CEO, suppose we have to accept some responsibility for believing them.

[minimoke]

2,339,462 so far.
With them buying at lot lower prices, I expect tey will extend the buyback.At current prices they could buy 5.2m shares

[minimoke]

Minimoke ...don’t we love this bit — It provides a means to return capital to shareholders, while benefiting those who continue to hold shares in the company.”


And one of the Directors had so much faith he sold rather than hold. That will be something worth questioning at the next meeting / AGM

Edit: in hindsight they might have been better off spending the money on a special dividend,

[peat]

I've added some due to 4 1/2 years of consecutive growth

10358

[Joshuatree]

Your T/A has gone AWOL peat.

[peat]

Your T/A has gone AWOL peat.
wasnt TA it was FA.

[winner69]

Your T/A has gone AWOL peat.

Think peat’s charts are upside down

[percy]

wasnt TA it was FA.

Seemed to have meant FA to posters on this thread.!

[toddhunter]

Whangarei sharetraders.
Turners new site will be open on Monday 4th March, at Turners Corner,corner Walton Street and Maunu Road.
Any one driving past would you please comment on the site and general presentation.Are they using containers as offices.?
Thank you in advance.

Austen the new Whangarei site is an old Placemakers premises...no container offices here. As you will see there is an old warehouse at the rear of the site (which we have refurbished) with a large outside display car park on the road frontage. This will be a great move from a back block industrial location to a high profile inner city corner site which will help improve the number of end customers we can attract into the business. The site is 8000m2 which increases the footprint we have to retail cars from by approximately 25%. We will be open from Monday.

10359

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Walton+St+%26+Maunu+Rd,+Avenues,+Whangarei+0110/@-35.7281861,174.3165759,175m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6d0b7efcba717487:0x6ae62 a68af5ac62c!8m2!3d-35.7274738!4d174.3165086

[Joshuatree]

Think peat’s charts are upside down

Jekyll or Heckle take your pick.

[percy]

Austen the new Whangarei site is an old Placemakers premises...no container offices here. As you will see there is an old warehouse at the rear of the site (which we have refurbished) with a large outside display car park on the road frontage. This will be a great move from a back block industrial location to a high profile inner city corner site which will help improve the number of end customers we can attract into the business. The site is 8000m2 which increases the footprint we have to retail cars from by approximately 25%. We will be open from Monday.

10359

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Walton+St+%26+Maunu+Rd,+Avenues,+Whangarei+0110/@-35.7281861,174.3165759,175m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x6d0b7efcba717487:0x6ae62 a68af5ac62c!8m2!3d-35.7274738!4d174.3165086

Thanks Todd,
Looking forward to "record" sales.!!

[minimoke]

Thanks Todd,
Looking forward to "record" sales.!!With the money pouring into Northland I'm expecting bumper results.

[winner69]

Turners talk about “the intrinsic value of the business” with the share trading below this intrinsic value.

An overused term this intrinsic value ..generally used by punters who think the share they are interested in is undervalued. Gives them a sense of well bearing.

One guy who loved using the term was Ron Brierley ....again and again he reminded us that Brierley and then Guinness Peat was so cheap because the share price was below intrinsic value.

Intrinsic value sounds posh. There’s now way to calculate intrinsic value - I reckon the intrinsic value of Turners is at least $3.50 ..but that’s just my guess/estimate/calculation and many would say I’m just as delusional as Baker.

[Joshuatree]

Seemed to have meant FA to posters on this thread.!

LOLOLOLOL:t_up:

[winner69]

I've added some due to 4 1/2 years of consecutive growth

10358

Nice charts Peat

The column on the npat chart for FY19;is likely be about the same as FY18 (hoping)

So npat not much more than FY15 ....in a period when revenues have more than tripled


Something wrong - all this clipping the ticket and not much more profit

Maybe charts not as good looking as you obviously intend to demonstrate

[Joshuatree]

Be a small win/relief for all of us if this is bottom, but with used car sales slowing since Nov as Trade Me noted, im not convinced.

[forest]

Nice charts Peat

The column on the npat chart for FY19;is likely be about the same as FY18 (hoping)

So npat not much more than FY15 ....in a period when revenues have more than tripled


Something wrong - all this clipping the ticket and not much more profit

Maybe charts not as good looking as you obviously intend to demonstrate

Just as well you not showing a profit per share graph since 2016.
In 2016 we had about 63mil shares on issue, now close to 87mil. That profit now is shared more widely. :(

[winner69]

I wonder what the Board thinks about the share price being $2.15

They seemed rather distressed when it was $3

[minimoke]

I wonder what the Board thinks about the share price being $2.15

They seemed rather distressed when it was $3So distressed Paul Byrnes figured he better get his deck fixed before winter comes on - with his 30,000 share sale

[Balance]

2,339,462 so far.
With them buying at lot lower prices, I expect they will extend the buyback.

Being ever so cynical, has the buyback (using TRA's cash & capital) been used o prop up the sp as the Baker boys & friends try to unload their shares?

Hard to understand why this buyback is having no discernible effect on the sp.

[minimoke]

Hard to understand why this buyback is having no discernible effect on the sp.You mean positive effect.

It has had the effect of driving SP down 14 %

[BlackPeter]

Being ever so cynical, has the buyback (using TRA's cash & capital) been used o prop up the sp as the Baker boys & friends try to unload their shares?

Hard to understand why this buyback is having no discernible effect on the sp.

I guess Milford offloading does not help. Question is - do the Milford boys know something the market doesn't?

[Balance]

You mean positive effect.

It has had the effect of driving SP down 14 %

Haha - trust you to have a quick response!

[BlackPeter]

You mean positive effect.

It has had the effect of driving SP down 14 %

To be fair: nobody knows where the SP would have been without the Buyback. To be honest - this was my other reason to sell out ... not that keen to find out with my own portfolio in the shooting line.

[couta1]

I guess Milford offloading does not help. Question is - do the Milford boys know something the market doesn't? Like they did with WYN you mean.Lol

[Balance]

So distressed Paul Byrnes figured he better get his deck fixed before winter comes on - with his 30,000 share sale

All joking apart, this IS the kind of double-faced behavior which institutional investors take keen note of.

Why would anyone (especially a a chartered accountant, and professional director and investor with 25 years’ experience in senior and CEO roles in private and listed companies) sell shares when the shares are so undervalued?

In my journey of investing over the years, I always recall an institutional investor dumping his fund's total shareholding of Ceramco's shares when Charles Bidwill stepped down complaining of ear-ache problems which prevented him from flying BUT was rumored to be in a plane a few weeks alter.

The manager did the right thing as Ceramco's share price almost totally collapsed a few months later.

[minimoke]

All joking apart, this IS the kind of double-faced behavior which institutional investors take keen note of..
I agree. Worse than Herdlickers behaviour over on ATM.

Spinning us a yarn on how undervalued the SP is and then spruiking your own shares is appalling.

[winner69]

One thing about the collapsing share price has been it’s been consistently going down .....lucky for them it hasn’t crashed and they’ve avoided getting a speeding ticket

Would have responded that they are fully compliant with disclosure rules anyway but a bit embarrassing getting a speeding ticket.

[percy]

Looks as though the sellers are buying HGH.?

[winner69]

It’s some time since they came out with that vague sort guidance ...like was npbt going to be 10% down on previous guidance or was it just a suggestion it could be.

Well, 11 months of the financial year has now passed. They must have a decent feel for how the year has gone and what the full year profit will be.

Share price collapsing and lots of uncertainty in the market about how good or bad things are.

They need to come out and say how the years panning out - it would be the decent and responsible thing to do.

Jeez, last year they couldn’t contain themselves sending out newsletters and having shareholder sessions promoting how wonderful they were and all that sort of crap. The silence over the last few months has been deafening

An update to Shareholders is urgently needed .....but I hold my breath as I reckon it very unlikely.

[Balance]

It’s some time since they came out with that vague sort guidance ...like was npbt going to be 10% down on previous guidance or was it just a suggestion it could be.

Well, 11 months of the financial year has now passed. They must have a decent feel for how the year has gone and what the full year profit will be.

Share price collapsing and lots of uncertainty in the market about how good or bad things are.

They need to come out and say how the years panning out - it would be the decent and responsible thing to do.

Jeez, last year they couldn’t contain themselves sending out newsletters and having shareholder sessions promoting how wonderful they were and all that sort of crap. The silence over the last few months has been deafening

An update to Shareholders is urgently needed .....but I hold my breath as I reckon it very unlikely.

I smell a fight with the auditors over stock values etc.

Something just does not make sense - a share buyback is to benefit ALL shareholders and the best way to benefit ALL shareholders - certainly not the sellers.

But TRA seems to be the only buyer currently? And paying up to get stock even while the seller(s) are relentlessly selling down, including said director selling 30,000 shares.

Surely tRA should be backing off in the face of the relentless selling and only take out the seller(s) at the lowest price possible?

[percy]

Last year the shareholder newsletter was dated 4th April.
Before that..29th March,Dealer Loyalty Share Scheme.
..................29th March.Divie
..................12th March SPH Milford.
...................1st March opportunity for end of life vehicles for Turners.....Only this one and the next one were before 2nd March.
..................27th February.Turners reports minimal impact from stink bug.

From the last annual report.Directors shareholdings or interests they represent.
Grant Baker 7.02%
Paul Byrnes 3.8%
Matthew Harrison 8.2%
Alister Petrie..7,95%
Total 26.97%
A lot of skin in the game.
A lot of skin lost.?

[Beagle]

It’s some time since they came out with that vague sort guidance ...like was npbt going to be 10% down on previous guidance or was it just a suggestion it could be.

Well, 11 months of the financial year has now passed. They must have a decent feel for how the year has gone and what the full year profit will be.

Share price collapsing and lots of uncertainty in the market about how good or bad things are.

They need to come out and say how the years panning out - it would be the decent and responsible thing to do.

Jeez, last year they couldn’t contain themselves sending out newsletters and having shareholder sessions promoting how wonderful they were and all that sort of crap. The silence over the last few months has been deafening

An update to Shareholders is urgently needed .....but I hold my breath as I reckon it very unlikely.

I couldn't agree more.

[Beagle]

I smell a fight with the auditors over stock values etc.

Something just does not make sense - a share buyback is to benefit ALL shareholders and the best way to benefit ALL shareholders - certainly not the sellers.

But TRA seems to be the only buyer currently? And paying up to get stock even while the seller(s) are relentlessly selling down, including said director selling 30,000 shares.

Surely tRA should be backing off in the face of the relentless selling and only take out the seller(s) at the lowest price possible?

When the buy-back is finished at the end of this month it will be fascinating to see the buy depth, if any, that's left.

[winner69]

Finally sussed how the Turners ‘clipping the ticket’ business model works

Now that’s three of us — Todd, Percy and me. I fear Baker and Byrnes don’t really know.

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1101615757153263617?s=21

[percy]

Finally sussed how the Turners ‘clipping the ticket’ business model works

Now that’s three of us — Todd, Percy and me. I fear Baker and Byrnes don’t really know.

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1101615757153263617?s=21

I think Baker and Byrnes designed it...!!
Thanks for the link.

[Balance]

Finally sussed how the Turners ‘clipping the ticket’ business model works

Now that’s three of us — Todd, Percy and me. I fear Baker and Byrnes don’t really know.

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1101615757153263617?s=21

Scary but it reminds me of the "Blue Chip Financial Services' model!

Start with something (an asset) and then, clip the ticket as many times as you can before the ticket has no holes left to clip!

[percy]

I know of some very wealthy ChCh car dealers.
One told me he started by financing one in ten cars he sold.A few years later he was financing every car he sold,however the real money was made in developing car yards.
So a finance company, Dorcester, managed to unlock Bartel's blocking stake in Turners Auctions ,thereby taking Turners over.Bartel have retained their holding.
Turners develop sites,sell and auction vehicles,finance them,insure them,and even help insurance companies with the logistics for end of life cars.
How that can be compared with Mark Bryers' Blue Chip is beyond me.
Turners would be better compared to Mainfreight, who not only develop sites,run trucks and other logistic services.

PS.I knew of Mark Bryers well before he ran Blue Chip.He helped a garage manufacturer in ChCh go broke.Having met him ,it was easy to know to avoid anything he was associated with.

[Balance]

I know of some very wealthy ChCh car dealers.
One told me he started by financing one in ten cars he sold.A few years later he was financing every car he sold,however the real money was made in developing car yards.
So a finance company, Dorcester, managed to unlock Bartel's blocking stake in Turners Auctions ,thereby taking Turners over.Bartel have retained their holding.
Turners develop sites,sell and auction vehicles,finance them,insure them,and even help insurance companies with the logistics for end of life cars.
How that can be compared with Mark Bryers' Blue Chip is beyond me.
Turners would be better compared to Mainfreight, who not only develop sites,run trucks and other logistic services.

PS.I knew of Mark Bryers well before he ran Blue Chip.He helped a garage manufacturer in ChCh go broke.Having met him ,it was easy to know to avoid anything he was associated with.

Chill!

Was just responding to https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status...153263617?s=21

I sat in on one Blue Chip presentation (after Macquarie Bank bought in) and they (including two directors who were ex-National Party ministers) showed how their business model was all about clipping the ticket as many times as they could. Nothing was said about the poor old clients and customers of Blue Chip - how they were better off because they allowed Blue Chip to clip the ticket!

Suffice to say, we ran a million miles and I recall a year later, Macquarie took the Blue Chip & its clip the ticket model to Australia etc etc etc.

[winner69]

Got to read more attentively - percy gave me a big fright mentioning Bryers (ex Blue Chip) and Turners in the same post

Thought he was talking about the guy who ran the last Turners AGM first read through.ii

[winner69]

Finally sussed how the Turners ‘clipping the ticket’ business model works

Now that’s three of us — Todd, Percy and me. I fear Baker and Byrnes don’t really know.

https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1101615757153263617?s=21

It’s really up to date ....if you look closely enough you can see the new Whangarei site (with its ticket collectors) is shown

Cool

[percy]

Chill!

Was just responding to https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status...153263617?s=21

I sat in on one Blue Chip presentation (after Macquarie Bank bought in) and they (including two directors who were ex-National Party ministers) showed how their business model was all about clipping the ticket as many times as they could. Nothing was said about the poor old clients and customers of Blue Chip - how they were better off because they allowed Blue Chip to clip the ticket!

Suffice to say, we ran a million miles and I recall a year later, Macquarie took the Blue Chip & its clip the ticket model to Australia etc etc etc.

So you and I knew to avoid Bryers and Bluechip.You because you went to a presentation, and me because I knew of his involvement with a ChCh garage manufacturer.
Turners I know because my daughter brought a car off them which they "clipped the ticket" with finance.She found them excellent to deal with.
My brother-in-law confirmed this, when he brought a vehicle from Turners, and had to sell it back, because of changed circumstances.
So we both rely on personal experience before investing.
I have taken this a bit further by phoning Paul Brynes and attending Turners presentations [Todd Hunter and Aaron Saunders].All have spoken frankly and openly to me.

[percy]

Got to read more attentively - percy gave me a big fright mentioning Bryers (ex Blue Chip) and Turners in the same post

Thought he was talking about the guy who ran the last Turners AGM first read through.ii

Blame Balance,..
I do.!!.lol.

[winner69]

Weird thing about Byrnes selling 30,000 of his 3,414,860 shares for $69,900 was that only a few weeks before he collected a dividend of about $136,000 (plus all those juicy imputation credits).

Wasn’t that long ago he proudly telling us that he had bought quite a few at about $3

Must be a huge deck ....and the cost of timber is going up fast

Bit tough when you have to disclose dealings eh ...people jump to conclusions

[Snoopy]

Weird thing about Byrnes selling 30,000 of his 3,414,860 shares for $69,900 was that only a few weeks before he collected a dividend of about $136,000 (plus all those juicy imputation credits).

Wasn’t that long ago he proudly telling us that he had bought quite a few at about $3

Must be a huge deck ....and the cost of timber is going up fast

Bit tough when you have to disclose dealings eh ...people jump to conclusions


You guys assume too much. You assume that Byrnes owns his shares freehold, without knowing what loans he has secured against those assets. The directors were all pretty confident at AGM time, So confident they could never believe the share price could fall post AGM, and they may have extended themselves accordingly. On the surface, Byrnes selling those shares so soon after topping up at $3 and banking a bumper dividend doesn't make sense. But it might make perfect sense if Byrnes has had a tap on the shoulder from his own bank and has been given a margin call.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

You guys assume too much. You assume that Byrnes owns his shares freehold, without knowing what loans he has secured against those assets. The directors were all pretty confident at AGM time, So confident they could never believe the share price could fall post AGM, and they may have extended themselves accordingly. On the surface, Byrnes selling those shares so soon after topping up at $3 and banking a bumper dividend doesn't make sense. But it might make perfect sense if Byrnes has had a tap on the shoulder from his own bank and has been given a margin call.

SNOOPY

You are talking about someone getting a margin call on a $7m value shareholding and selling $69,000 worth...that someone who is collecting more than $500k per annum in dividends. Have another think about those numbers mate and ask yourself if anything you have suggested sound realistically plausible...

[Snoopy]

You are talking about someone getting a margin call on a $7m value shareholding and selling $69,000 worth...that someone who is collecting more than $500k per annum in dividends. Have another think about those numbers mate and ask yourself if anything you have suggested sound realistically plausible...


I didn't say $69,000 was the whole margin call. Maybe the margin call was $569,000? I admit I could be way off track here. But why would Byrnes sell $69,000 worth of shares if he didn't have to? I mean building a deck in Auckland with the current shortage of builders? Byrnes would have had to book a couple of years ahead to get builders to come. Plenty of time to save with that time lag.

Maybe after being 'rattled' at the AGM, and seeing the latest Mainzeal /Shipley fallout in the news, Byrnes decided he needed some of his own director liability insurance cover in a hurry?

SNOOPY

[RTM]

You are talking about someone getting a margin call on a $7m value shareholding and selling $69,000 worth...that someone who is collecting more than $500k per annum in dividends. Have another think about those numbers mate and ask yourself if anything you have suggested sound realistically plausible...

Yes...given all that the sale really doesn’t make sense. Maybe he is just trying to wind us all up ?

[percy]

Yes...given all that the sale really doesn’t make sense. Maybe he is just trying to wind us all up ?

Think you are right.
I have been trying to decide whether it is funny ha ha or funny peculiar?............................lol.

[Brain]

The possibilities are endless I guess ranging from gambling debts or hookers or a P habit to buying his aging mum a Summerset retirement unit.

[winner69]

Probably nothing to see here re Byrnes share sale or as Percy says ‘funny peculiar’

If both yahoo and the native is correct it must have been an off market sale ....volume that day was a lot less than 30,000 and the high of the day was less than the $2.33 he got.

[bull....]

i see vehicle imports this yr were pretty similar too last jan/feb last yr but be very interesting next few mths as last yr they were very high in mar, apr , may. be telling if we get a marked decline next few mths

[janner]

Maybe... Just maybe ..
He wants to spend a little of his money.
Might have decided that he wants more than bread and water..

[winner69]

The end game for cars ....things come to NZ quite quickly these days so are Turners threatened?

http://www.businessinsider.com/carpocalypse-cars-automobile-sales-data-us-europe-2019-3

Not Marilyn’s ‘Disintermediation‘ but a form of industry disruption

[Balance]

I didn't say $69,000 was the whole margin call. Maybe the margin call was $569,000? I admit I could be way off track here. But why would Byrnes sell $69,000 worth of shares if he didn't have to? I mean building a deck in Auckland with the current shortage of builders? Byrnes would have had to book a couple of years ahead to get builders to come. Plenty of time to save with that time lag.

Maybe after being 'rattled' at the AGM, and seeing the latest Mainzeal /Shipley fallout in the news, Byrnes decided he needed some of his own director liability insurance cover in a hurry?

SNOOPY

Doubt very much myself that any bank will lend against a non-NZX50 listed company like TRA on a margin call basis.

A finance company may but there are few of those left!

As to why he would sell 30,000 shares - it's not the number which matters so much as the obvious implication of a director selling into a falling share price and into a share buyback!

He cannot be that naive that he cannot understand the implication and market perception of a director holding 3.4m shares selling shares into a share buyback and 'undervalued' situation (as stated by directors)!!!!!

[couta1]

72k shares out of 160k odd traded on Friday were bought back, more buying interest from others developing as there is more depth on the buy side.

[Beagle]

Yes...given all that the sale really doesn’t make sense. Maybe he is just trying to wind us all up ?

Maybe he has integrity and is deliberately sending shareholders a thinly veiled message that things are not going well in the business...just a thought.

[couta1]

Maybe he has integrity and is deliberately sending shareholders a thinly veiled message that things are not going well in the business...just a thought. 69k worth sold out of a 7 mill value holding, nothing to see, let's move on.

[BlackPeter]

The end game for cars ....things come to NZ quite quickly these days so are Turners threatened?

http://www.businessinsider.com/carpocalypse-cars-automobile-sales-data-us-europe-2019-3

Not Marilyn’s ‘Disintermediation‘ but a form of industry disruption

Interesting article ... though a number of dots don't seem to line up.

If it is Uber and Lyft killing off the car market - than why would tyre sales go down? Don't Uber and Lyft cars need tyres as well? Same is true for vehicle production - as long as people chose to be transported in individual vehicles (vs. mass transport) I don't see a big impact.

They are throwing as well some political one-offs into the mix which certainly would not impact on the global car market. I.e. if car production in Europe gets more expensive due to BREXIT barriers , than this is a temporary problem, not a long term trend - or does anybody believe the European industry is not able in producing the required (and so far from Britain imported) parts themselves?

Turkey's new car registrations significantly dropping due to a incompetent autocrat crushing its economy? - Yeah, sure, but how does this impact on the world market? What about emerging nations who still look for more individual transport - they didn't show India's new car registrations which are exponentially rising: https://www.statista.com/statistics/257822/car-registrations-in-india/

Only reason I can see for the world wide car market to go down is if demand goes down world wide.

But no doubt - there is a worldwide trend for people living in cities to reduce individual driving - which is amplified by a world wide trend for people to move into cities. One of our boys lives in Singapore and his family doesn't own or need a car (and it is not due to lack of money): Public transport, Grab (the new Uber there), Taxi - it is all much cheaper and more convenient than the hassle and cost of owning a car and finding a parking space.

Question is - how relevant is all of this for the New Zealand market (and this is where TRA operates)?

For starters - Singapore has 8000 inhabitants per sqkm, New Zealand only 15. I am wondering whether this could have as well implications for the individual car market?

Not sure whats currently going on with TRA - but I don't really expect the overall New Zealand individual car market to be crushed over the next handful of decades ... and none of the trends and causes highlighted in the article seems to be particularly relevant in a New Zealand context.

And apart from that - as Snoopy rightly highlighted - TRA is not really a car company, they are a finance and insurance service provider with a car business feeding these more profiatble parts of the company. It won't be Uber and Lyft killing them - only if there evolves a trend that people don't want to take out loans anymore to buy anything, than they might be in trouble ...

[winner69]

69k worth sold out of a 7 mill value holding, nothing to see, let's move on.

Not quite a hrdlicker is it ...he might have had a tax bill to pay as well

[winner69]

Even though the share price was off its highs last June it seems to have been in steady decline since

Strange last June was when the Bakery shared out its shares to its partners ...maybe the timing is just conincidence.

Along with Baker’s non attendance at the AGM it sort of signals a dysfunctional Board is operating. That’s not good

Wishing like hell that white knight rides into town to save the day

[Marilyn Munroe]

i see vehicle imports this yr were pretty similar too last jan/feb last yr but be very interesting next few mths as last yr they were very high in mar, apr , may. be telling if we get a marked decline next few mths

I have received anecdotal reports of an imported vehicle compliance outfit having a quiet February.

Cautiinn should be exercised. This lull could be just as easily explained by shipping schedules or stink bug disruption.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[percy]

Even though the share price was off its highs last June it seems to have been in steady decline since

Strange last June was when the Bakery shared out its shares to its partners ...maybe the timing is just conincidence.

Along with Baker’s non attendance at the AGM it sort of signals a dysfunctional Board is operating. That’s not good

Wishing like hell that white knight rides into town to save the day

Dysfunctional Boards do not own between them 26.97% of a company.

Yes I am sure you are right that the Business Bakery share out to its partners,is one of the causes in the weakness of Turners' share price.
The Hugh Green estate sale was another.
The only way for the share price to recover is for Turners to produce ongoing good results.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I have heard Grant was invited to a special Ferrari event in Italy, combined with a trip in EU & US, which clashed with the new AGM date. Probably a fair excuse for not attending if the date was changed on him.

[forest]

I have heard Grant was invited to a special Ferrari event in Italy, combined with a trip in EU & US, which clashed with the new AGM date. Probably a fair excuse for not attending if the date was changed on him.

Mm, Ok that might explain the AGM he missed. Not sure thats is a good reason for a chairman not to turn up.
What special events would he have attended in the previous financial year when he seemed to have wagged 3 times?

[winner69]

Dysfunctional Boards do not own between them 26.97% of a company.

Yes I am sure you are right that the Business Bakery share out to its partners,is one of the causes in the weakness of Turners' share price.
The Hugh Green estate sale was another.
The only way for the share price to recover is for Turners to produce ongoing good results.


But such high levels of 'skin in the game' can lead to stress and tensions and disagreements .....expecially if the key players have different agenda

[winner69]

Beagle (and probably others) sold out pretty quickly after the ‘downgrade’ came ....I’m still holding

Reminds of the old saying ‘What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end’

[Balance]

I have heard Grant was invited to a special Ferrari event in Italy, combined with a trip in EU & US, which clashed with the new AGM date. Probably a fair excuse for not attending if the date was changed on him.

A Ferrari event is more important than an AGM?

Says everything!

[couta1]

A Ferrari event is more important than an AGM?

Says everything! I'd definitely go to the Ferrari event over any AGM, very unlikely to go to sleep at the former.

[percy]

I have received anecdotal reports of an imported vehicle compliance outfit having a quiet February.

Cautiinn should be exercised. This lull could be just as easily explained by shipping schedules or stink bug disruption.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

After last winter's oversupply of second hand vehicles I would think most importers would have been winding down their imports since Christmas.
I have also heard the market is slower.

[percy]

I'd definitely go to the Ferrari event over any AGM, very unlikely to go to sleep at the former.

Me too.
Also we must remember the AGM was held a different week than previous years.

[Beagle]

I'd definitely go to the Ferrari event over any AGM, very unlikely to go to sleep at the former.

Not when you're the Chairman and asking for an exorbitant fee increase. Mate, when you were a young fella didn't your mother tell you work comes before play :p


After last winter's oversupply of second vehicle I would think most importers would be ordering less cars since Christmas.
I have also heard the market is slower.
Trade Me saying the vehicle market is slower since November is a bad sign. They would know what with having over 90% of vehicle listings on the NZ market.

[percy]

[QUOTE=

Trade Me saying the vehicle market is slower since November is a bad sign. They would know what with having over 90% of vehicle listings on the NZ market.[/QUOTE]

Just as well Turners added 250 new originators in the first 6 months.
Wonder how many more they since added.

ps.I note our wonderful PM missed this year's Ratana do,to join other world leaders.
Ferrari are certainly the motor worlds' world leader.
Couta1.I think it is fantastic having a "Petrol Head" as Chairman.
ps.Bet he would not be seen dead in a Holden..!!!..lol.

[Balance]

I'd definitely go to the Ferrari event over any AGM, very unlikely to go to sleep at the former.


Me too.
Also we must remember the AGM was held a different week than previous years.

Wow!

Such low expectations from your Chairman?

He was paid $110,000 last year in fees and the one time he was required to front to shareholders, he decided other things are more important!

[Beagle]

Wow!

Such low expectations from your Chairman?

He was paid $110,000 last year in fees and the one time he was required to front to shareholders, he decided other things are more important!
Exactly, and this at a time when there was a resolution to raise his Chairman's fees to $150,000 or was it $160,000, I forget. Maybe he was simply too much of a coward to front up to the snarling Beagle ? Whatever the reason I am so pleased I dumped most of mine at $3.20.

Percy, Mercedes-Benz are taking Formula 1 by the scruff of the neck not Ferrari.
Personally I think whatever Jacinda does or doesn't do is of no relevance to the point we're discussing.
The Holden thing you are trying to milk is getting very old. Says a lot about you in my opinion and how desperate you're becoming with this share.

[percy]

Wow!

Such low expectations from your Chairman?

He was paid $110,000 last year in fees and the one time he was required to front to shareholders, he decided other things are more important!

Which Couta1 and I tottally agree with.
You forget the AGM meeting week was changed.
With such a strong board who together own 26.97% of the company he knew he could leave the meeting to his very well qualified deputy.A board with a lot of depth.

[percy]

Exactly, and this at a time when there was a resolution to raise his Chairman's fees to $150,000 or was it $160,000, I forget. Maybe he was simply too much of a coward to front up to the snarling Beagle ? Whatever the reason I am so pleased I dumped most of mine at $3.20.

Percy, Mercedes-Benz are taking Formula 1 by the scruff of the neck not Ferrari.
Personally I think whatever Jacinda does or doesn't do is of no relevance to the point we're discussing.
The Holden thing you are trying to milk is getting very old. Says a lot about you in my opinion and how desperate you're becoming with this share.

If Ferrari offered Lewis Hamilton a drive with them, he would be there like a shot.
The way Ferrari are shaping in pre-season testing I think Mercedes have a huge fight on their hands this year.
As Frank Gardner used to say "When the flag drops,the bullsh"t stops".
We will know on the 17th.

[Balance]

Never get emotional about shares and companies.

Clouds your perspective and judgement.

[winner69]

If Ferrari offered Lewis Hamilton a drive with them, he would be there like a shot.
The way Ferrari are shaping in pre-season testing I think Mercedes have a huge fight on their hands this year.
As Frank Gardner used to say "When the flag drops,the bullsh"t stops".
We will know on the 17th.

At least Spark have the decency to simulcast Melbourne race with TVNZ ....on DUKE whatever channel number that is

[percy]

Never get emotional about shares and companies.

Clouds your perspective and judgement.

We are rightly only getting emotional over Mercedes verses Ferrari.
Bit like the Blues verses the Crusaders.

[Balance]

We are rightly only getting emotional over Mercedes verses Ferrari.
Bit like the Blues verses the Crusaders.

Which is why there are those who still bet on the Blues!

[percy]

Which is why there are those who still bet on the Blues!

Not down here..!!..lol.

[minimoke]

How is it at the end of day someone can come in and buy/sell at $2.14, dropping the SP 1 cent for the day - when pretty much all other trades during the day were at $2.15?

[peat]

How is it at the end of day someone can come in and buy/sell at $2.14, dropping the SP 1 cent for the day - when pretty much all other trades during the day were at $2.15?

11:06 was the only other $2.14.
10364
Are you suggesting someone has a big short on it? If it was some sort of large cap Aussie stock , maybe a put option.
I dont really think so.

[McGinty]

Exactly, and this at a time when there was a resolution to raise his Chairman's fees to $150,000 or was it $160,000, I forget. Maybe he was simply too much of a coward to front up to the snarling Beagle ? Whatever the reason I am so pleased I dumped most of mine at $3.20.

Let's not forget that the fee increase was backdated to 1/4/2018. Would have been a nice little bonus for Grant to come back to (new rate + 6 months back pay). I can only assume there where smiles all round at the Oct board meeting.

[winner69]

How is it at the end of day someone can come in and buy/sell at $2.14, dropping the SP 1 cent for the day - when pretty much all other trades during the day were at $2.15?

Just somebody desperate to sell in case it’s even lower tomorrow ....and stuff all anybody who wants to buy.

Couta calls them reef fish or something like that

[couta1]

Just somebody desperate to sell in case it’s even lower tomorrow ....and stuff all anybody who wants to buy.

Couta calls them reef fish or something like that Lol that reef fish sold them to me at $2.14.

[winner69]

Lol that reef fish sold them to me at $2.14.

...you greedy shark .....but good on you for supporting the share price

[winner69]

Last September at the AGM when the share price was $2.90

SLIDE 5. SHARE PRICE
The only area of performance that has disappointed is our languishing share price. As it must be a concern for all shareholders we should take some time to discuss possible reasons and market feedback.....
.........
So why is our share price currently around $2.85, well below the price suggested by conventional analysis in these reports? And trading at a level at which the Board sees value – you will have seen directors and senior executives including Grant, Todd and myself recently buying at around $3.00 per share.

Etc etc etc sob sob sob

A few months on and as the NZX reaches an all time high Turners share price continues to collapse and reaches what essentially is an all time low.

Something must be dramatically wrong with this outfit and the company is saying very little .¿the silence is deafening

[RTM]

A few months on and as the NZX reaches an all time high Turners share price continues to collapse and reaches what essentially is an all time low.

Something must be dramatically wrong with this outfit and the company is saying very little .¿the silence is deafening



Maybe they are very happy with the share price because of the buy back ?

[Baa_Baa]

Last September at the AGM when the share price was $2.90
[snip]

A few months on and as the NZX reaches an all time high Turners share price continues to collapse and reaches what essentially is an all time low.

Something must be dramatically wrong with this outfit and the company is saying very little .¿the silence is deafening

Market sentiment is such a powerful force and usually so difficult to pinpoint unless it's one 'in your face issue' like a bunch of insiders dumping their shares. So with a TRA regardless of what the real issues re if any, the market sentiment is easily monitored by the charts and simple TA will tell you when it's time to buy in, riding the sentiment back up again and enjoying those juicy dividends. The time is not now but it could be close.

[minimoke]

11:06 was the only other $2.14.
10364
Are you suggesting someone has a big short on it? If it was some sort of large cap Aussie stock , maybe a put option.
I dont really think so.No, I'm not. Just seemed strange to me that seller could have got $2.14 anytime during teh day but it wasnt till the closing bell this deal was done. So today gets recorded at $2.14

[Baa_Baa]

No, I'm not. Just seemed strange to me that seller could have got $2.14 anytime during teh day but it wasnt till the closing bell this deal was done. So today gets recorded at $2.14

Did you check the volume/value at close? Just one of those reefies Couta talks about, got the panics and flicked a few shares into the closing auction. Then again, $3.2k for those two sellers might be a big deal, who knows. We're not all sharks or barracouta.

[couta1]

Did you check the volume/value at close? Just one of those reefies Couta talks about, got the panics and flicked a few shares into the closing auction. Then again, $3.2k for those two sellers might be a big deal, who knows. We're not all sharks or barracouta. A slightly larger reef fish flicked me 10k at $2.14 on Friday, bless their fins.

[oldtech]

A slightly larger reef fish flicked me 10k at $2.14 on Friday, bless their fins.

Brave of you, I am quite enough in the red on this one already.

[winner69]

Market sentiment is such a powerful force and usually so difficult to pinpoint unless it's one 'in your face issue' like a bunch of insiders dumping their shares. So with a TRA regardless of what the real issues re if any, the market sentiment is easily monitored by the charts and simple TA will tell you when it's time to buy in, riding the sentiment back up again and enjoying those juicy dividends. The time is not now but it could be close.

So true baa_baa

But sentiment may never change .....Turners may have become a pariah of the NZX .....no matter how fantastic the company thinks they are the share price will always be way below some delusional ‘intrinsic value’

[Brain]

So true baa_baa

But sentiment may never change .....Turners may have become a pariah of the NZX .....no matter how fantastic the company thinks they are the share price will always be way below some delusional ‘intrinsic value’

In which case it will pay a great quarterly dividend and I will be happy with that.

[winner69]

In which case it will pay a great quarterly dividend and I will be happy with that.

So true ......but what if dividends are slashed

[Brain]

So true ......but what if dividends are slashed

Thats a different case. Then the company is not performing as I expect and best to get out.

[Beagle]

Market sentiment is such a powerful force and usually so difficult to pinpoint unless it's one 'in your face issue' like a bunch of insiders dumping their shares. So with a TRA regardless of what the real issues re if any, the market sentiment is easily monitored by the charts and simple TA will tell you when it's time to buy in, riding the sentiment back up again and enjoying those juicy dividends. The time is not now but it could be close.

Still on my watchlist and I agree about watching TA. What on earth is going on in consumers minds that is supressing demand in the vehicle industry ? Its a hard one to figure but with TA you don't need too. Looks pretty grim across the Tasman too. https://www.caradvice.com.au/731211/car-sales-slow-february-2019/

[minimoke]

I'll be pleased when the buy back is over.

Every day there is a new market announcement and I eagerly expect a positive market update. But no. Just a few thousand more shares bought at an ever decreasing SP

[winner69]

I'll be pleased when the buy back is over.

Every day there is a new market announcement and I eagerly expect a positive market update. But no. Just a few thousand more shares bought at an ever decreasing SP


.....but creating wealth for shareholders they say ...like buyback returns are greater thn their cost of capital - a rather nebulous statement that nobody knows what it means

[percy]

Buy backs results in each shareholder owning a bigger slice of the cake.
Turners directors, who are already large shareholders, understand this well,and I expect the low prices being paid to buy back shares, will see the buyback extended.
That would make good sense to me.

[BlackPeter]

Buy backs results in each shareholder owning a bigger slice of the cake.
Turners directors, who are already large shareholders, understand this well,and I expect the low prices being paid to buy back shares, will see the buyback extended.
That would make good sense to me.

Obviously - every share bought back increases TRA's leverage. Last time I checked (last financials) their total liabilities to total asset ratio was just shy of 70%. Where would you see a sensible limit for them?

[Balance]

Talked to another used car dealer (son of a good friend) yesterday to get a feel of what's happening out there.

He runs a very successful small yard - 20 to 25 vehicles at a time - mostly Japanese imports which he sources through his agent in Japan. He also deals in ex-demo from the European marques.

Nothing new, I don't think but -

The used car market has slowed down a lot in the last 6 months and is extremely competitive with far too many players who do not know what they are doing. An added problem is that new car prices have been discounted and some new car dealers have been stuck with too much stock after playing the game of ordering additional stock to get the volume rebates at end of quarters. He cited BMW as the worse example - why there are currently plenty of ex-demo BMWs around for sale.

Margins in used cars were fantastic 5 years ago (as high as 50%+ with the el-cheapos very high mileage under $5k cars) but year by year, margins have been dropping to the extent that it has become too 'dangerous' to be holding too much stock.

Many smaller players have left the game - there will be a war of attrition until the sound and well operated ones remain. The smaller players quitting stock as they leave the industry is putting additional short term pressure.

Asked him about Buy Right Cars - his view is that the company's huge stock and overheads will be bleeding money during the current shake-out period.

Read and take it for what it is worth.

[Balance]

I'll be pleased when the buy back is over.

Every day there is a new market announcement and I eagerly expect a positive market update. But no. Just a few thousand more shares bought at an ever decreasing SP

Full year results not due to be reported until May - unless there's an earnings update.