TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[percy]

BlackPeter
The last presentation showed they had plenty of undrawn credit.
The last interim result showed they were very profitable.
Each share brought back is cancelled.
Therefore each cancelled share saves 17 cents being paid to cover its dividend.At present time the gross yield is 11%.
Turners NIM is over 9% which is twice HGH's.
Turners have a number of revenue chanels,property development,vehicle auctions,vehicle sales,finance,insurance,and end of life vehicle logistics.
So we are happy with HGH's equity ratio of just under 14%.
Therefore I would think Turners should operate with an equity ratio somewhere over 20% .

[winner69]

Let’s say Turners make ~$24m this year

Buyback 5% of their own shares is ~$10m and dividends ~$14m

That’s all the profits given back to shareholders .....suppose that’s a good idea

Not much retained for growth ....aren’t Turners touting themselves as a growth company

[percy]

Todd Hunter advised us that Turners new Whangarei site will hold 25% more stock,as well as being better located.Post # 4404 page 294 of this thread.
The last interim result, [or was it their last presentation?] advised us they had 250 new originators.
Both are a part of Turners ongoing growth strategy

PS.Have you kept an eye on Turners new Wellington site.?

[couta1]

Beagle reckons it's going under $2, I reckon he's wrong and that the floor has basically been found within a cent or 2. PS-This stocks got Armageddon basically priced into it already.

[percy]

Beagle reckons it's going under $2, I reckon he's wrong and that the floor has basically been found within a cent or 2. PS-This stocks got Armageddon basically priced into it already.

I am sure one of you will be proved right.!.........lol.

[winner69]

I am sure one of you will be proved right.!.........lol.

I hope so as well .....and the neighbours bowling mates hope so as well

They not too happy with Turners and Oceania but I keep reminding them the divies still better than their term deposits so may as keep holding. They were keen on but missed the bus with ZEL hoping for a Turners turn around. I was a bit horrified when he told me somebody had told him that it’s better to own the bank than put you money in it .....and said they might get into Heartland.

[winner69]

Beagle reckons it's going under $2, I reckon he's wrong and that the floor has basically been found within a cent or 2. PS-This stocks got Armageddon basically priced into it already.

You were right on Couts ....we going to have an up day I reckon.

[percy]

I hope so as well .....and the neighbours bowling mates hope so as well

They not too happy with Turners and Oceania but I keep reminding them the divies still better than their term deposits so may as keep holding. They were keen on but missed the bus with ZEL hoping for a Turners turn around. I was a bit horrified when he told me somebody had told him that it’s better to own the bank than put you money in it .....and said they might get into Heartland.

Might pay for them to do some real research.
Send them down to your local Turners yard to talk to the staff.
Z do not give "Gold Card" holders a discount.Avoid.


ps.I thought they had already brought and sold HGH.?

[Balance]

The tWHO'S TELLING PORKIES ABOUT CAR SALES?

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/40e5715e/who-s-telling-porkies-about-car-sales.html

Interesting October was dreadful month

Reflecting back on the sp action - it looks like this article & the profit downgrade on 27 Nov 2018 started the rot?

Sp dropped 10% that day and has not recovered - looks like Milford took the share buyback opportunity to get out.

TRA has not appeared to date to refute the article?

Well, be warned yet again folks that first downgrade is never the last!

Happy to have stayed out - never buy into a downtrend and into a first downgrade.

[winner69]

Jeez ....walk past Turners yard in Wellington and point your phone at the Turners sign and how much the share price has gone down will pops pop up on your screen

Cool stuff

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/ff7dffde/shareclarity-bringing-gaming-geekery-to-market-analysis.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Shareclarity%20bringing%20gaming%20ge ekery%20to%20market%20analysis&utm_content=Shareclarity%20bringing%20gaming%20gee kery%20to%20market%20analysis+CID_a6430cb8ce0a16f9 1382c6cf464c1769&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticleff7dffdesharec larity-bringing-gaming-geekery-to-market-analysishtml

And just for Beagle a new feature - when looking at Turners on the app a little dog pops up and scratches off some fleas.

[couta1]

FNZC must have just bought 300k shares back in house(No sp tag beside transaction)

[Balance]

FNZC must have just bought 300k shares back in house(No sp tag beside transaction)

Who else will buy into a 1st downgrade? Either in the know or in support.

[winner69]

Who else will buy into an 1st downgrade?

Watch out for a few Directors and Officers Disclosures?

Cheap as at $3 .....even cheaper as at $2.15

But imagine the excitement if it was a brand new investor ...an Aussie or Asian fund maybe

[Beagle]

Imagine the disappointment if they come out and confirm trading conditions are bad and even worse than anticipated late last year. The silence from the company is deafening...wonder why...

[winner69]

They only said lower npbt was a ‘possiblity’ if certain things happened.

That’s not a profit downgrade.

The market had overreacted big time

The ‘silence is deafening’ is a bit of no news is good news -

Npbt of $35m is an eps ~29 cents - much higher than analysts expect

And then the market will appreciate that all this ticket clipping is working ....big time

And I’ll be happy and beagle won’t see his 2 bucks

[Balance]

Watch out for a few Directors and Officers Disclosures?

Cheap as at $3 .....even cheaper as at $2.15

But imagine the excitement if it was a brand new investor ...an Aussie or Asian fund maybe

If they are buying in volume, I will definitely follow!

[Beagle]

They only said lower npbt was a ‘possiblity’ if certain things happened.

That’s not a profit downgrade.

The market had overreacted big time

The ‘silence is deafening’ is a bit of no news is good news -

Npbt of $35m is an eps ~29 cents - much higher than analysts expect

And then the market will appreciate that all this ticket clipping is working ....big time

And I’ll be happy and beagle won’t see his 2 bucks

And TA looks so encouraging and supportive of this narrative...opps hang on a minute...

[BlackPeter]

And TA looks so encouraging and supportive of this narrative...opps hang on a minute...

Well, somebody is accumulating - as they did at $2.40 and $2.33 before. I guess it must work at some stage, doesn't it?

[Beagle]

Well, somebody is accumulating - as they did at $2.40 and $2.33 before. I guess it must work at some stage, doesn't it?

How do you know its not just the buy-back ?. No one will reliably know until after the buy-back is finished in early April.
Even a broken clock is eventually right lol

[BlackPeter]

How do you know its not just the buy-back ?. No one will reliably know until after the buy-back is finished in early April.
Even a broken clock is eventually right lol

Well, buyback can be only 30% of the volume - can it? The other 70% must be genuine interest.

But obviously - as long as the SP is dropping it means there are more keen sellers than keen buyers. Add the share buyback it must be less than 70 buyers to 100 sellers.

Anyway - I just wanted to highlight that we had higher volumes before and SP was dropping nevertheless (after some plateauing). Will it be different this time?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

How do you know its not just the buy-back ?. No one will reliably know until after the buy-back is finished in early April.
Even a broken clock is eventually right lol

Any shares purchased in the buy back are announced to the market the next day. Tomorrow we will know whether it was the buy back (most likely), or a large player building a stake (less likely). Gets interesting if it's the 2nd option.

There's good money to be made here at some point. The question is when.

[couta1]

The $2.15 bid line not being dealt to like it has been relentlessly for a while now.

[blackcap]

Well, buyback can be only 30% of the volume - can it? The other 70% must be genuine interest.



Weekly or total volume. But yes any buying outside of the buyback and it has been 70% or more is still buying.

[SCOTTY]

Well, I was hoping that it was just the buyback and me :)

[LAC]

Iv bought a few as well😉

[Beagle]

Weekly or total volume. But yes any buying outside of the buyback and it has been 70% or more is still buying.

No...I can't say any more without breeching confidence.

[winner69]

Well Turners acquired 163,000 of the 300,000 odd shares yesterday

Balance must have Couts, Lac, Percy and Scotty and maybe even beagle buying up big time ...doubt of BlackPeter was buying ,...and I resisted the temptation to average down big time seeing the bottom has been reached.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Well Turners acquired 163,000 of the 300,000 odd shares yesterday

Balance must have Couts, Lac, Percy and Scotty and maybe even beagle buying up big time ...doubt of BlackPeter was buying ,...and I resisted the temptation to average down big time seeing the bottom has been reached.

A positive sign that it looks like a large player is beginning to accumulate. Time to watch this closely.

[winner69]

A positive sign that it looks like a large player is beginning to accumulate. Time to watch this closely.

Just imagine ...a large player on board

The ASX listing has its uses eh

[Balance]

A positive sign that it looks like a large player is beginning to accumulate. Time to watch this closely.

Looks like short-covering - very nice profit to cover while Milford is still dishing stock out?

Will get excited if insiders are buying!

[BlackPeter]

Interesting chart ...

10376

RSI (upper red circle) is shockingly low - and does not show any inclination to cross back over the 20 (which could be an indicator for a trend change) ...

Downward momentum (lower red circle) seems to fade ... but the last times it did that it didn't do the SP any favour.

Volume (second last graph) was yesterday a bit higher - but if you look back in time, the peak was in no way outstanding, we had plenty of higher ones on the way down to where we are. Sometimes these spikes caused subsequenty a wee dead cat bounce and often they didn't.

Maybe TA specialists like Moosie or Hoop could read more out of this chart, but I see so far just a shocking and unrelented downtrend ... and no indications yet for a change.

And no winner, while I don't think my typical trade packages would have made a huge dent into yesterdays volume - just for the record, I didn't buy (well, not TRA ;)).

[couta1]

Waiting for a punter to hit the $2.16 button.

[BlackPeter]

Waiting for a punter to hit the $2.16 button.

Well, here is your opportunity to sacrifice yourself for the common good ;);

[couta1]

Interesting chart ...

10376

RSI (upper red circle) is shockingly low - and does not show any inclination to cross back over the 20 (which could be an indicator for a trend change) ...

Downward momentum (lower red circle) seems to fade ... but the last times it did that it didn't do the SP any favour.

Volume (second last graph) was yesterday a bit higher - but if you look back in time, the peak was in no way outstanding, we had plenty of higher ones on the way down to where we are. Sometimes these spikes caused subsequenty a wee dead cat bounce and often they didn't.

Maybe TA specialists like Moosie or Hoop could read more out of this chart, but I see so far just a shocking and unrelented downtrend ... and no indications yet for a change.

And no winner, while I don't think my typical trade packages would have made a huge dent into yesterdays volume - just for the record, I didn't buy (well, not TRA ;)). I don't see any TA indicators that show any trend reversal however a big fish accumulating could turn things around in short order.

[Beagle]

Well Turners acquired 163,000 of the 300,000 odd shares yesterday

Balance must have Couts, Lac, Percy and Scotty and maybe even beagle buying up big time ...doubt of BlackPeter was buying ,...and I resisted the temptation to average down big time seeing the bottom has been reached.

:lol: :lol: Thanks mate. Always good to have a good laugh at least once a day.

[Balance]

Looks like short-covering - very nice profit to cover while Milford is still dishing stock out?

Will get excited if insiders are buying!

Have a look at MHJ if you want to see how a stock gets oversold but the smart money bought - case of directors putting their money where their words are and buying stock.

TRA?

No signs of directors buying - instead one sold!

[winner69]

Wandered into Wellington City site




About 40 cars but no customers but it was quite early in day
Sales consultant (won’t name him as Todd might tell him off) said action was a bit ‘slack’ in the first few weeks of opening but steadily picking up as time goes by
Running ahead of target if that means anything
Wouldn’t tell me how many sales they make a week
Apparently the Porirua site sales had not been affected by having the two sites in Wellington area
All the cars were discounted ...but that’s the old car salesman trick eh
Even had a Merc for sale



Just another car yard ....not really my things ng but need to do my ‘homework’

Should have listed the regos and go back in a couple of weeks ....and probably see most of them still there

[winner69]

We are on a roll ...cool

Don’t think we will ever see 215 again

[winner69]

Google celebrating the life of Olga Ladyzhenskaya today bought back memories of when I did that sort of stuff .....should have stuck with it instead of being a foolish holder of Turners shares

But looking good at the moment

[couta1]

Beagle be gnashing his teeth now that he knows he got the sub $2 call wrong.Lol

[winner69]

Beagle be gnashing his teeth now that he knows he got the sub $2 call wrong.Lol

Yep ...yield going to get less by the day ...and it won't become attractive to him

[Beagle]

Beagle be gnashing his teeth now that he knows he got the sub $2 call wrong.Lol


Yep ...yield going to get less by the day ...and it won't become attractive to him

Look at the super coloured coordinated coat I bought myself selling at $3.20 and how much fun I'm having with it :p https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r67UOkKByyA
Lots of barking and crowing and assumptions going on for a measly 2 cents share price increase. It must be such a shock to actually see it go up lol

[winner69]

Look at the super coloured coordinated coat I bought myself selling at $3.20 and how much fun I'm having with it :p https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r67UOkKByyA
Lots of barking and crowing and assumptions going on for a measly 2 cents share price increase. It must be such a shock to actually see it go up lol

Don’t remind ....What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end

[peat]

Interesting chart ...

I see so far just a shocking and unrelented downtrend ... and no indications yet for a change.



There is no divergence and even stochastic hasn't turn(er)ed so yeh its the saddest chart ever.
Any fool knows one should wait for a confirmation.

[peat]

It must be such a shock to actually see it go up lol

just such a sense of relief that it didnt fall further

I was going to say earlier when someone complained about opening and closing prices being a cent different from VWAP that falling one cent wasn't so bad because it meant we could have an up day the next day without having gone anywhere.


loved the video

[minimoke]

just such a sense of relief that it didnt fall further


My finger is slowly coming off the stop loss trigger!

[Snow Leopard]

Look at the chart! :eek2:

Look at that pattern!! :eek2: :t_up:

TRA is forming an almost perfect inverse bell-curve pattern. :scared: :t_up: :confused:

This pattern, little known to all but the most devout of chartists who have spent many a year in solitude staring at the ancient squiggly lines, is very bullish to those who believe the stock is undervalued and 'a mere breather on the way to oblivion' for those who faith is weak.

But for me, the future is known, and I strike like a Snow Leopard on an Argali.

https://www.snowleopard.org/snow-leopard-facts/prey/

[hamish]

Except.. If everyone in the market waited for a confirmation, there would be no actual confirmation

[winner69]

Look at the chart! :eek2:

Look at that pattern!! :eek2: :t_up:

TRA is forming an almost perfect inverse bell-curve pattern. :scared: :t_up: :confused:

This pattern, little known to all but the most devout of chartists who have spent many a year in solitude staring at the ancient squiggly lines, is very bullish to those who believe the stock is undervalued and 'a mere breather on the way to oblivion' for those who faith is weak.

But for me, the future is known, and I strike like a Snow Leopard on an Argali.

https://www.snowleopard.org/snow-leopard-facts/prey/

Good one but please do not bring gender theory into the discussion

[BlackPeter]

Look at the chart! :eek2:

Look at that pattern!! :eek2: :t_up:

TRA is forming an almost perfect inverse bell-curve pattern. :scared: :t_up: :confused:

This pattern, little known to all but the most devout of chartists who have spent many a year in solitude staring at the ancient squiggly lines, is very bullish to those who believe the stock is undervalued and 'a mere breather on the way to oblivion' for those who faith is weak.

But for me, the future is known, and I strike like a Snow Leopard on an Argali.

https://www.snowleopard.org/snow-leopard-facts/prey/


In statistics, an inverted bell curve is a term used loosely or metaphorically to refer to a bimodal distribution that falls to a trough between two peaks

Ouch - you are predicting a double top at $2.32? Well, might be good for traders ...

[winner69]

Ouch - you are predicting a double top at $2.32? Well, might be good for traders ...

No no BlackPeter ....I think the spotted one was implying a double top around $3.80

Not too late to pounce

[BlackPeter]

No no BlackPeter ....I think the spotted one was implying a double top around $3.80

Not too late to pounce

Well, you are drawing a long bow ... ;);

[SCOTTY]

There is no divergence and even stochastic hasn't turn(er)ed so yeh its the saddest chart ever.
Any fool knows one should wait for a confirmation.

So, its official, I’m a fool. Thank you Dr peat :)

[winner69]

Well, you are drawing a long bow ... ;);

No no BlackPeter ....not a long bow .....just drawing a perfect inverse bell curve pattern .....very BULLISH

[Joshuatree]

Wild ibex grazing in Kyrgyzstan. Photo: SLF Kyrgyzstan / Snow Leopard Trust

I think there is an error on the caption for the 2nd photo.Surely gazing instead of grazing!:)https://www.snowleopard.org/snow-leopard-facts/prey/

[BlackPeter]

Wow - up another cent (but don't look at the volume ...). Milford might be tempted to sell the next 750k parcel into this "uptrend" ... ;);

[peat]

So, its official, I’m a fool. Thank you Dr peat :)

Me too mate me too.

Re this inverted bell curve thing, there was a guy in the forex forum on this site called Miner and he used to trade what he called a 'U' pattern which I think matches what Snow Leopard mentioned. He did pretty well from what I recall.

[minimoke]

Its been a long time between drinks to even see this mirage

[winner69]

Its been a long time between drinks to even see this mirage

What was that quote from The Castle now

But inverse bell curve patterns are good

[minimoke]

What was that quote from The Castle now
Its a picture for the Pool Room?

[oldtech]

My my my, it's on the move ... last trade at $2.20.

(Still not tempted to jump in just yet)

[Joshuatree]

Ok who's been the biggest down ramper/rapper, now feeding into the rise?

[winner69]

Ok who's been the biggest down ramper/rapper, now feeding into the rise?


....and what a rally it is

[couta1]

Ok who's been the biggest down ramper/rapper, now feeding into the rise? Beagle doesn't own any so don't blame him.

[Balance]

....and what a rally it is

Go to MHJ if you want to see a rally!


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111105612/michaels-hills-colossal-boat-the-beast-launches-at-foxton-beach

She's a BIG one!

[Beagle]

Go to MHJ if you want to see a rally!


https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111105612/michaels-hills-colossal-boat-the-beast-launches-at-foxton-beach

She's a BIG one!

Seaworthiness was obviously the only consideration, looks obviously didn't come into the equation at all lol

[minimoke]

Seaworthiness was obviously the only consideration, looks obviously didn't come into the equation at all lolI though our navy had just got a new vessel

[Beagle]

I though our navy had just got a new vessel

He'll certainly be safe from pirate attacks off the coast of Somalia. Finishing touches in Wellington must be the machine guns and missile systems lol

[peat]

its not even a car - why is it on the Turners thread! haha

[SCOTTY]

Its a picture for the Pool Room?

I think “That goes straight to the poolroom darl” :)

[Joshuatree]

Looks pretty sharp , thin drag, Chuck the mast on and its a prototype Americas cup racer:D

[winner69]

its not even a car - why is it on the Turners thread! haha

A hint to Turners to expand into selling boats that’s why

Even more ticket clipping

[percy]

A hint to Turners to expand into selling boats that’s why

Even more ticket clipping

Go to www.turners.co.nz and you will note they already sell boats.

[Patient Panda]

Been ages since i’ve taken a look at TRA, initial metrics look extremely attractive p/e 6.9 div yield almost 12%. Had a scan through interim report and all looks good, positive revenue growth and decent npat and ebit growth. Am I missing something or is this one seriously tasty feed here?

[Joshuatree]

You are missing a whole lot of comments, try reading back through them, lots of opinions and info there to help you.

[winner69]

Been ages since i’ve taken a look at TRA, initial metrics look extremely attractive p/e 6.9 div yield almost 12%. Had a scan through interim report and all looks good, positive revenue growth and decent npat and ebit growth. Am I missing something or is this one seriously tasty feed here?


.....a
One seriously tasty feed at the current outrageously low share price


And don’t forget the perfect inverse bell curve pattern developing taking the share price back to 380 (+70%)

[BlackPeter]

Been ages since i’ve taken a look at TRA, initial metrics look extremely attractive p/e 6.9 div yield almost 12%. Had a scan through interim report and all looks good, positive revenue growth and decent npat and ebit growth. Am I missing something or is this one seriously tasty feed here?

You are right - the fundamentals we know of look very compelling, even if we assume that the earnings drop this (and the next) year. And hey, who really can predict whats happening in 3 years from now?

One reason to stay away would be however the "never drink and buy in a downtrend". I guess it comes down to whether you think you know more than the market ... and no doubt - at some stage it certainly must bottom out - doesn't it? So why not now? or after the next downwave? or after the downwave after the next? or after .... ;

There are still these roughly 5 million Milford shares waiting to be dumped ... or do we think they sold a million and changed their mind without any new data?

Personal preference when to buy in ... I think I will review any decision whether I will get back in after we have a confirmed trend change (which we don't have now).

[winner69]

With Turners business model based on an ecosystem of clipping the ticket in all aspects of owing a second car throughout its lifecycle you’d think they’d make ever increasing excessive profits

Key metric is npbt margin ...this has been shrinking over the last few years. F19 margin probably less than 9% when it was well over 10% a few years ago.

Conclusion — I think they have far too many ticket collectors - it seems that clipping tickets is getting costlier and the ticket clippers are becoming less productive.

[Balance]

With Turners business model based on an ecosystem of clipping the ticket in all aspects of owing a second car throughout its lifecycle you’d think they’d make ever increasing excessive profits

Key metric is npbt margin ...this has been shrinking over the last few years. F19 margin probably less than 9% when it was well over 10% a few years ago.

Conclusion — I think they have far too many ticket collectors - it seems that clipping tickets is getting costlier and the ticket clippers are becoming less productive.

Comes down to the fact that margins in the used car trade have shrunk so much that many dealers are out of business?

[winner69]

Read an article the other day that showed that the stocks of companies that use the word ‘ecosystem’ in their reports tend to under perform the market (US study)

Two companies in NZ that come to mind who have started touting their ‘ecosystem’ are Turners and Thl .....hmmmm

[winner69]

Comes down to the fact that margins in the used car trade have shrunk so much that many dealers are out of business?

Declining demand and shrinking margins not good ....for a business model that has too many ticket clippers

[Balance]

Declining demand and shrinking margins not good ....for a business model that has too many ticket clippers

There will be an industry consolidation but entries to barriers are so low that consolidations in the past have not delivered gains.

Any ex-used car salesman can more or less set up as a business - import 25 cars at say, $10k = $250,000, rent a yard and a new player emerges.

[BlackPeter]

There will be an industry consolidation but entries to barriers are so low that consolidations in the past have not delivered gains.

Any ex-used car salesman can more or less set up as a business - import 25 cars at say, $10k = $250,000, rent a yard and a new player emerges.

Sure, but with all the doom around on this thread we should not forget that while selling cars generates most of TRA's revenue - the margins (and with that the earnings) do come from insurance and finance (generating together two thirds of TRA's earnings). The hurdles to get into these two areas are much higher.

But yes, I don't like the current trend either and decided to watch the spectacle from the side lines ;);

[Beagle]

Plenty of work for the SP to do yet to establish any credentials from a TA point of view that the downward trend has finished. See 6 month chart attached showing red 30 day MA line and black 100 day MA line 10385

[percy]

The new Whangarei site [ex Placemakers] is a superior site than their old site.It is better located and holds 25% more vehicles.
It has been developed by Turners to meet their needs.It is owned by Turners,therefore Turners will be able to book the development margin.
They offcourse can either hold onto it, or sell and lease it back.

[winner69]

Plenty of work for the SP to do yet to establish any credentials from a TA point of view that the downward trend has finished. See 6 month chart attached showing red 30 day MA line and black 100 day MA line 10385

You’ll be saying something much different by the end of the month when share price $2.50

[couta1]

The days of $2.14 are gone and the days of $2 will never happen and the days of Beagle gnashing his teeth have begun.

[BlackPeter]

You’ll be saying something much different by the end of the month when share price $2.50


The days of $2.14 are gone and the days of $2 will never happen and the days of Beagle gnashing his teeth have begun.

Interesting. Just had another look at the Milford announcement:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/330509/294850.pdf

Over the last 12 months they first bought 831k shares at an average SP of $2.86; Obviousy - they bought into a downtrend, maybe no KW fans ;);

And after that they sold 1588k shares for an average price of $2.40;

I guess this means sometimes over the last 12 months they changed their view on TRA (might have been related to their potential for a profit downgrade, who knows?).

Question is - if you two assume the SP will go stellar from here - what reason do you see for Milford to have changed their view - again? I guess why would they sell anyway at an average of $2.40, if they think the share is fairly priced at that level?

On the other hand, if they still think the share is overvalued - why do you think Milford would not continue to sell into any strength? And yes, just looking into their announcement - they still have more than 6m shares to offload.

Might keep the SP for a while below the MA 100 - which happens to be around $2.50.

I guess if we see at some stage some strength on the way up (which we don't yet), than we will soon know (they would need to issue another SSH if they keep selling) - one way or another.

[winner69]

Interesting. Just had another look at the Milford announcement:

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/330509/294850.pdf

Over the last 12 months they first bought 831k shares at an average SP of $2.86; Obviousy - they bought into a downtrend, maybe no KW fans ;);

And after that they sold 1588k shares for an average price of $2.40;

I guess this means sometimes over the last 12 months they changed their view on TRA (might have been related to their potential for a profit downgrade, who knows?).

Question is - if you two assume the SP will go stellar from here - what reason do you see for Milford to have changed their view - again? I guess why would they sell anyway at an average of $2.40, if they think the share is fairly priced at that level?

On the other hand, if they still think the share is overvalued - why do you think Milford would not continue to sell into any strength? And yes, just looking into their announcement - they still have more than 6m shares to offload.

Might keep the SP for a while below the MA 100 - which happens to be around $2.50.

I guess if we see at some stage some strength on the way up (which we don't yet), than we will soon know (they would need to issue another SSH if they keep selling) - one way or another.

Gaynor says Milford success is due to the relentless curiosity of its people.......maybe their curiosity over Turners has turned (for the better)

[dreamcatcher]

News like this don't help SP or convince investors to buy.....

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-06/car-dealers-bearing-the-brunt-of-australian-economic-slowdown/10875580

[percy]

Turners are neither in Australia or sell new cars.

[winner69]

Turners are neither in Australia or sell new cars.

As long as the news doesn’t rub off on Australian instos and they stop supporting the share (or even worse pack a sad and sell out)

[winner69]

Turners are neither in Australia or sell new cars.

Maybe dreamcatcher was suggesting that if news like this applied to NZ it would put punters off buying any stock associated with cars.

Like in a years time — New Zealand’s GDP shows we're in a type of 'recession' and car dealers are bearing the brunt

[percy]

Maybe dreamcatcher was suggesting that if news like this applied to NZ it would put punters off buying any stock associated with cars.

Like in a years time — New Zealand’s GDP shows we're in a type of 'recession' and car dealers are bearing the brunt

As investors it pays us to know the difference between "Fake" news and "Real" news.

[couta1]

As investors it pays us to know the difference between "Fake" news and "Real" news. My rule of thumb is to believe half of what you read(In other words I toss a coin to determine whether it's fake or real)

[winner69]

My rule of thumb is to believe half of what you read(In other words I toss a coin to determine whether it's fake or real)

Like many are still wondering if this vague sentence was REAL news or FAKE news — “If October market conditions continue to be the environment we are working in, NPBT could be impacted by 5 – 10% from our previous guidance range of $34m to $36m.”

Yes couts, like you I only believe half (maybe a bit more than half) of what companies say. Maybe

[BlackPeter]

Like many are still wondering if this vague sentence was REAL news or FAKE news — “If October market conditions continue to be the environment we are working in, NPBT could be impacted by 5 – 10% from our previous guidance range of $34m to $36m.”

Yes couts, like you I only believe half (maybe a bit more than half) of what companies say. Maybe

Actually - the sentence was not vague but pretty specific. I am sure as well, it is true. What we don't know is whether the condition in this sentence (if market conditions continue ...) has been confirmed.

Sad thing is - the company would know the trend by now (it is not rocket science to add up their sales at the end of each month). Unfortunately they didn't tell us. Just wondering - would this be withholding of material information? Somebody must know - are they selling or buying?

[peat]

Actually - the sentence was not vague but pretty specific. I am sure as well, it is true. What we don't know is whether the condition in this sentence (if market conditions continue ...) has been confirmed.

Sad thing is - the company would know the trend by now (it is not rocket science to add up their sales at the end of each month). Unfortunately they didn't tell us. Just wondering - would this be withholding of material information? Somebody must know - are they selling or buying?

they are buying! see company news every day :cool:

[winner69]

they are buying! see company news every day :cool:

There was an American politician (I think he was a polie)) who was raving the other day that company share buy backs should be banned because the company was acting on insider information.

[peat]

There was an American politician (I think he was a polie)) who was raving the other day that company share buy backs should be banned because the company was acting on insider information.

yes but it is public information that they are buying , and they announce it before they do it , and its usually over a period of time. Its not like they buy 100m they day before the profit announcement.


Despite my opportune recent purchase I am still a long way under water here. cant buy any more now.

[Beagle]

Actually - the sentence was not vague but pretty specific. I am sure as well, it is true. What we don't know is whether the condition in this sentence (if market conditions continue ...) has been confirmed.

Sad thing is - the company would know the trend by now (it is not rocket science to add up their sales at the end of each month). Unfortunately they didn't tell us. Just wondering - would this be withholding of material information? Somebody must know - are they selling or buying?

One wonders why they haven't updated the market ? It is nearly 3.5 months since they made this statement on 27 November 2018
"If October market conditions continue to be the environment we are working
in, NPBT could be impacted by 5 - 10% from our previous guidance range of
$34m to $36m."

I would have thought its not unreasonable at all for shareholders to have expected an update by now.

[percy]

Last year there was a shareholders newletter .It was contained in Turners' 4th April announcement.
Perhaps they will do another this April.?




ps.Next full moon is in 10 days time on 21st March.

[dreamcatcher]

Just a comparison from Taiwan. I know Percy......... Turners are neither in Taiwan or sell new cars but one mind wonders

https://www.just-auto.com/news/taiwan-sales-plunge-27-in-february_id187544.aspx

[winner69]

One wonders why they haven't updated the market ?


No need to ...npbt going to between $31m and $36m ....but then possibly anything is possible if certain things possibly happen or if certain things possibly don’t happen

When I was Turners the other day looking at their price tickets I thought this might be the case “NPBT $31m - was $36m” with the appropriate slashed marks etc etc

[percy]

Just a comparison from Taiwan. I know Percy......... Turners are neither in Taiwan or sell new cars but one mind wonders

https://www.just-auto.com/news/taiwan-sales-plunge-27-in-february_id187544.aspx

Wrong thread,.
If you must post about new cars sales, post it on CMO thread.
It has nothing to do with Turners,who are NZ's largest seller of USED cars..
It is "Fake" news.

[dreamcatcher]

Wrong thread,.
If you must post about new cars sales, post it on CMO thread.
It has nothing to do with Turners,who are NZ's largest seller of USED cars..
It is "Fake" news.

Disagree as people purchasing a new car then dispose of old car through Turners NZ largest Used car dealer

But if people don't purchase a new car why would they sell their old car which in turn means Turners don't clip the ticket so new/old related imo

[Beagle]

Last year there was a shareholders newletter .It was contained in Turners' 4th April announcement.
Perhaps they will do another this April.?

ps.Next full moon is in 10 days time on 21st March.
Better buy back in before then so I can start the howling then :p

[percy]

You must be a mind reader.
My thoughts exactly....................lol.

[percy]

Disagree as people purchasing a new car then dispose of old car through Turners NZ largest Used car dealer

But if people don't purchase a new car why would they sell their old car which in turn means Turners don't clip the ticket so new/old related imo

Read your other post.The article did state;
"People put off buying a new car and buy a second hand car."
Turners investors will see the full article a lot different than CMO investors,so it pays to post on the right thread..
"Fake" news is a wast of space for Turners thread.

[BlackPeter]

Wrong thread,.
If you must post about new cars sales, post it on CMO thread.
It has nothing to do with Turners,who are NZ's largest seller of USED cars..
It is "Fake" news.

mmh - not so sure ....

Obviously one can (rightly or wrongly) question the relevance of the information about the Taiwanese and Australian new car market for this thread.

I don't know what the ultimate answer to that would be, but I suspect that above information is at least of interest for the second hand car market - unless our local market is absolutely separated from the rest of the world (don't think it is).

There are clear connections between new car market and used car market (even if the connection is complex):

If young people decide that they don't want to own a car anymore, than this impacts on new as well as on used car market.
If the costs of owning a car go up, than this impacts on both markets;
If people are concerned about the economy (and their jobs) than they might delay the decision to buy the next ride (no matter whether this is new or used)
If people don't buy new cars anymore, than maybe they sell on less used cars ;);
If new car dealers offer desperate discounts to flog off their products, than maybe less people buy used cars ...
...
If manufacturers sell now less new cars, used car dealers will have later on less used cars to onsell ...

But I leave it to others to discover the ultimate formula connecting used and new car markets :);

Just being a bit concerned about the use of the word "fake news". I know, it is fashionable (for all the wrong reasons), but it is in my view here neither correct nor appropriate.

If the provided information is correct (that's what I assume), but not deemed relevant, than it is not fake news, just (potentially) irrelevant for this thread.

If the provided information is wrong, than we would need to investigate whether the author intentionally published wrong data. If the author made just a mistake, than it would be just that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fake_news


Fake news or junk news or pseudo-news is a type of yellow journalism or propaganda that consists of deliberate disinformation or hoaxes spread via traditional print and broadcast news media or online social media.

I propose to leave any other use of the word "fake news" to the President Of The United States.

[Beagle]

Overseas studies have shown that if push comes to shove young people would rather do without a car than their fancy cellphone. The power of social media is immense.
These studies were probably done however in densely populated cities where people have ready access to public transport.
We are starting to see far more intense development with large multi story apartment blocks being developed in very close proximity to train stations in Auckland. This targeted intensive development will probably have some effect on vehicle demand in N.Z. in the future but it would be too hard to quantify at this stage.

[percy]

"Fake " news has no place on this forum.We saw it on HGH thread some years ago. where posters posted enough "Fake" news that one would have thought HGH were the only bank that lent to dairying.Then the Australian Royal Commission into banking was the "Fake" news that caused the weakness in HGH's share price.
The only new car market that affects NZ used cars is the Japanese market.And the flow on affect is not great for Turners, as they source a great number of their vehicles in NZ.

[percy]

Overseas studies have shown that if push comes to shove young people would rather do without a car than their fancy cellphone. The power of social media is immense.
These studies were probably done however in densely populated cities where people have ready access to public transport.
We are starting to see far more intense development with large multi story apartment blocks being developed in very close proximity to train stations in Auckland. This targeted intensive development will probably have some effect on vehicle demand in N.Z. in the future but it would be too hard to quantify at this stage.
We have a long way to go until our public transport is up to the standards of cities like London or New York.Even in cities such as Sydney and Melbourne a car is pretty handy.

[couta1]

We have a long way to go until our public transport is up to the standards of cities like London or New York.Even in cities such as Sydney and Melbourne a car is pretty handy. Your right there if Wellington is anything to go by, very unreliable.

[percy]

Your right there if Wellington is anything to go by, very unreliable.

Yet I would have thought Wellington would have been one city you could manage without a car.

[winner69]

I thought using the term fake news was the polite way of telling those whose stuff you don’t agree with to F off

[Beagle]

Nothing forthcoming from the company regarding trading conditions since the "could be affected by 5-10% issued on 27 November 2018" but the unofficial company spokesman on here is obviously on first name terms with Todd so as an insider he would know and has been reminding us (almost daily) everything is fine so we're off to the races now and this stock must have been massively oversold at $2.14. Heck the company itself has been buying them back by the million so what could possibly go wrong from here...or is this a FAKE news post lol

[winner69]

Good to see the close today at the days high

Onwards and upwards from here I reckon

[dreamcatcher]

NOTED ...... My apologies for upsetting some locals on here with recent posts

[Baa_Baa]

Disagree as people purchasing a new car then dispose of old car through Turners NZ largest Used car dealer

But if people don't purchase a new car why would they sell their old car which in turn means Turners don't clip the ticket so new/old related imo

That's a good summation imo, even new sales yards have to unload the old cars traded-in that are no good to the new car sales yard or out of spec for their used cars 'holdings' profile, and Turners or the wreckers are the go to option for those new car sales yards -- they have to have a dumping ground or their new car sales deal (or late model used car) won't fly.

I've had a few vehicles over the years that I've driven into the ground or are terminally broken, and all of them were eagerly traded by the car yard because they flicked them over to Turners yard or auction who paid me an exit price. Some were really ****ed up, still the minimum trade offered was $3k, one was a absolute basket case, still got $10k for it. So Turners have a business model for near-to or end of life vehicles, one might assume it works for Turners otherwise they wouldn't take all those crappers

Interesting to flick through the Turners website and see some of the crap they do end up with, especially repo's and insurance claims. Makes one wonder what they do with that stuff if they can't sell it? Maybe they don't own them and are only selling on behalf? Maybe they clip the ticket on dumping the no sells into the metals merchants, the crushers.

percy will know, he knows everything about Turners and it's good to have his balancing insights when otherwise the crowd is and has been for ages baying for blood on TRA. I don't care much for his investment ideals and tolerance for capital losses, but it's good imho to have such a deep insight into the company and have a rational answer for almost everything negative said about the company. Food for thought, appreciated here, if not elsewhere.

Not far now until the 50MA resistance test at $2.33, if that is breached you'd have to think the low is in and then we might see some SP follow through action to the upside. Then again, that SP is resistance and could be a turning point reverting to (staying in) the down trend. TRA's SP definitely has taken a beating, not sure if it's warranted, but I don't argue with sentiment.

[percy]

That's a good summation imo, even new sales yards have to unload the old cars traded-in that are no good to the new car sales yard or out of spec for their used cars 'holdings' profile, and Turners or the wreckers are the go to option for those new car sales yards -- they have to have a dumping ground or their new car sales deal (or late model used car) won't fly.

I've had a few vehicles over the years that I've driven into the ground or are terminally broken, and all of them were eagerly traded by the car yard because they flicked them over to Turners yard or auction who paid me an exit price. Some were really ****ed up, still the minimum trade offered was $3k, one was a absolute basket case, still got $10k for it. So Turners have a business model for near-to or end of life vehicles, one might assume it works for Turners otherwise they wouldn't take all those crappers

Interesting to flick through the Turners website and see some of the crap they do end up with, especially repo's and insurance claims. Makes one wonder what they do with that stuff if they can't sell it? Maybe they don't own them and are only selling on behalf? Maybe they clip the ticket on dumping the no sells into the metals merchants, the crushers.

percy will know, he knows everything about Turners and it's good to have his balancing insights when otherwise the crowd is and has been for ages baying for blood on TRA. I don't care much for his investment ideals and tolerance for capital losses, but it's good imho to have such a deep insight into the company and have a rational answer for almost everything negative said about the company. Food for thought, appreciated here, if not elsewhere.

Not far now until the 50MA resistance test at $2.33, if that is breached you'd have to think the low is in and then we might see some SP follow through action to the upside. Then again, that SP is resistance and could be a turning point reverting to (staying in) the down trend. TRA's SP definitely has taken a beating, not sure if it's warranted, but I don't argue with sentiment.

Your trade-ins.The dealer most probably offered over the top price as he had a big margin in the car you were buying.He then most probably put it in a Turners Auction to clear it.Had Turners ended up buying it ,they would not have paid anything like the price the dealer traded it.Most dealers will quote you the cash difference when you are trading.However when they do their paper work they adjust their figures. I find the best way to buy a car is with no trade-in, and offer cash.It focusses the dealers attention.
End of Life Vehicles.Huge business for Turners.Mainly logistics and sales for insurance companies,although Turners will buy unregistered cars off private sellers.I live not far from Turners Curries Road End of Life site.Big business mainly selling damaged or wrecked cars to panel beaters and car wreckers.Huge yard with some cars stacked two or three high.Quick turnover too.

Capital losses are only there when realised.You may remember Graeme Hart buying Burns Phip shares around $2.00 only to see the sp fall to under 20 cents.What a joke.Because he had done his research Hart had the last laugh..Hart always followed the cash through the business before he brought.Like Hart I too have had the last laugh a few times.The biggest was buying Smiths City when they went into receivership.Started buying the day they were delisted, and kept buying for the next few years while they were not listed,Was "well positioned" when they relisted.
I do not say my way of investing is better than others,however it has worked for me.

[Beagle]

Yeap, minimum trade-in of $3K has the $3K straight on top on every car on the lot, as a minimum, usually more. Dealer knows they will get a minimum of $300 from a wrecker which is their handling fee for the hassle of taking a piece of junk as a trade. Sometimes if the car has a warrant they can get a bit more.

[winner69]

Hope Todd Turner comes out this week with a proper update as to what the full year is looking like

[percy]

Hope Todd Turner comes out this week with a proper update as to what the full year is looking like

Maybe?
I note last year it was in their 4th April shareholders newsletter.

ps.Todd Hunter at Turners.

[winner69]

Maybe?
I note last year it was in their 4th April shareholders newsletter.

ps.Todd Hunter at Turners.

No, no ...you save words by just saying Todd Turner

[sb9]

No, no ...you save words by just saying Todd Turner

Just like Elon Tesla, Tim Apple, Bill Microsoft, Jeff Google, Mark Facebook etc....

On more relevant note, notice there were no buy back y'day on a day when price went up. May be they should stop the buy back programme now ;)

[percy]

No, no ...you save words by just saying Todd Turner

I guess Todd saves a lot more words not giving a weekly updates?......................lol.

[percy]

Just like Elon Tesla, Tim Apple, Bill Microsoft, Jeff Google, Mark Facebook etc....

On more relevant note, notice there were no buy back y'day on a day when price went up. May be they should stop the buy back programme now ;)

Why.?
I think the board [who are large shareholders themselves] felt the shares were worth well over $3.00.
I am happy, as I get a bigger slice of the cake without buying more myself.
A win win situation.?

[minimoke]

$2.29 at the moment. Certainly seems like the hand brake has been released

[winner69]

$2.29 at the moment. Certainly seems like the hand brake has been released

Instos (maybe even Aussie ones) seen the light of day .....$2.50 beckons soon

And then that perfect inverse bell curve pattern will continue to form and later in year the share price will be back to about $3.80

FUndamentals look fantastic (wasn’t really a downgrade before Xmas) and TA well that’s BULLISH, BULLISH as

[minimoke]

Instos (maybe even Aussie ones) seen the light of day .....$2.50 beckons soon


I look forward to that - then I'l be at break even point with this old clunker

[percy]

I look forward to that - then I'l be at break even point with this old clunker

And in approx 7 weeks time you will receive another fully imputed dividend.
I love Turners quarterly divies..

[BlackPeter]

Instos (maybe even Aussie ones) seen the light of day .....$2.50 beckons soon

And then that perfect inverse bell curve pattern will continue to form and later in year the share price will be back to about $3.80

FUndamentals look fantastic (wasn’t really a downgrade before Xmas) and TA well that’s BULLISH, BULLISH as

Sometimes I find it difficult to read your irony.

I guess the TA looks quite unusual and might well turn into a cup with handle ... but wouldn't you expect material volume in a "BULLISH, BULLISH" uptrend?

10387

[percy]

Iv bought a few as well😉
Above posted 06-03-2019
You and SCOTTY certainly appeared to get your timing perfect.
Well done.

[Beagle]

Instos (maybe even Aussie ones) seen the light of day .....$2.50 beckons soon

And then that perfect inverse bell curve pattern will continue to form and later in year the share price will be back to about $3.80

FUndamentals look fantastic (wasn’t really a downgrade before Xmas) and TA well that’s BULLISH, BULLISH as

$2.29 is a break up through the 30 day moving average. Interesting that none were bought back yesterday so the buying is real.
Looks like Couta1 was right and $2.14 was the bottom and we won't see under $2 after all. Might be quite a while before Couta1, you and Percy get your $3.80 though.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

I suspect there are some rules limiting share buy backs when the daily price increase is above a certain amount.

All the technical ducks have lined right up in 3 days... one final duck to line up is a break of $2.33 resistance / 50DMA.

The trading pattern has been very very interesting. Looks like Milford has stopped selling and two people are suddenly trying to accumulate in volume. Do they know something we don't? I don't know what to make of it.

[percy]

$3.80 would be a good figure.Not important to me, as I am a long term holder.Reach $3.80 and I will just tick it off on the way to $4.00 or $5.00.


ps.Any one been passed the new Whangarei site.?

[winner69]

$3.80 would be a good figure.Not important to me, as I am a long term holder.Reach $3.80 and I will just tick it off on the way to $4.00 or $5.00.


ps.Any one been passed the new Whangarei site.?

Hope you’ve made a will percy and left clear instructions that your Turners (and others) are never never to be sold

Be really horrible if you got run over by a bus tomorrow but even more horrible if your estate sold all your Turners shares for $2.29

[percy]

Hope you’ve made a will percy and left clear instructions that your Turners (and others) are never never to be sold

Be really horrible if you got run over by a bus tomorrow but even more horrible if your estate sold all your Turners shares for $2.29

The daughters have already had "more than enough",including both having had their mortgages paid off.
Should my Turners holding be valued at Zero, there is still a very healthy estate left,as Turners are my third largest holding.
I could not care less what they do with my money when I have gone.
Next TRA's divie is paying for No.1 daughter and the grandaughters holiday to the Gold Coast.Also will cover the rent for them. and her cousin and her children [living in Ninbin],in an apartment in Surfers.

[Joshuatree]

A snapshot FWIW.
Loitered around the local Turners today for about 30 mins late morning. 132 vehicles for sale. The number of VW's stood out.Pretty full but not overflowing was my impression.
Friendly staff, was asked 3 times by different people if they could help
All staff were brisk, no strolling there, on the phone, talking cars, doing car stuff, no one looked to be killing time or pretending to be busy
But few punters to be seen, less than 6 the time i was there pretty even with staff numbers. A couple of cars were started up and one or two moved. A 1$ reserve auction car by the main entrance.Lots of pickups /Utes parked out on roadside.

[oldtech]

SP seems to have stalled at $2.29, with a buyer at $2.29 and a seller at $2.30 and neither willing to budge. :)

[Joshuatree]

MNY confident about The car business here,
MNY completes acquisition of Go Car Finance in NZ 1 page 119.6KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02085694)

[BlackPeter]

MNY confident about The car business here,
MNY completes acquisition of Go Car Finance in NZ 1 page 119.6KB (https://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=02085694)

More and stronger competition must be good for consumers - but is it good for TRA shareholders?

[percy]

More and stronger competition must be good for consumers - but is it good for TRA shareholders?

Why do you think Dorchester [finance] brought Turners.?
Why do you think Smiths City Finance is the profit generator of Smiths City Group.?
All a bit like McDonalds when you ask for chips.:Large?
Turners,you require finance?
Smiths City,you require finance?
There are hundreds of finance companies and banks who will provide motor vehicle finance,however only one owns NZ's largest second hand car dealer.
MTF is also close to their customers, as only originators are MTF shareholders.

[Joshuatree]

Agree .Turners have a bit of a moat there and Go Car finance have an existing network of dealers they offer finance through. More of a vote of confidence in the car financing industry , less a threat or competition imo.

[Beagle]

It must be time to BUY. Couta1 is finally right and $2.14 is the bottom.

[percy]

A week earlier than I expected.!!....lol.
Welcome back on board.
Next divie due in approx 7 weeks.Fully imputed.

[BlackPeter]

It must be time to BUY. Couta1 is finally right and $2.14 is the bottom.

Is this statement based on the SP cracking the MA30 and staying above that line for already one full day without material volume?

I remember times when a confirmed rise over the MA100 was considered an early indicator for a trend change, but the MA30? and without any supporting fundamental changes?

Sure - trends can change anytime, but calling this at this moment "past bottom" appears to be a brave call to me ...

[winner69]

Is this statement based on the SP cracking the MA30 and staying above that line for already one full day without material volume?

I remember times when a confirmed rise over the MA100 was considered an early indicator for a trend change, but the MA30? and without any supporting fundamental changes?

Sure - trends can change anytime, but calling this at this moment "past bottom" appears to be a brave call to me ...


As baa_baa said earlier - TA is discretionary, one can use it rigidly or ignore it when it suits. IMHO the former is a more reliable approach.

Whatever - the trend change happened with that capitulation a week or so ago when several punters finally lost faith


Patently clear even to a blind punter we'll never see 214 again .....and even from today its onwards and upwards

That lack of 'material volume' a problem for the keen buyers - don't want to push the price up too fast - but soon the elastic will break

Love times of capitulation - always a good time buying under 220

[Beagle]

Is this statement based on the SP cracking the MA30 and staying above that line for already one full day without material volume?

I remember times when a confirmed rise over the MA100 was considered an early indicator for a trend change, but the MA30? and without any supporting fundamental changes?

Sure - trends can change anytime, but calling this at this moment "past bottom" appears to be a brave call to me ...

It looked like it was going to break the 30 day MA and subsequently has. Just a small very low conviction "punt"
Buying proper volume against the technical's is something I do very rarely and only if I have 100% confidence in the management and board and the FA case supporting the buy is compelling (AIR)

[Snow Leopard]

Life has hit rock bottom for me in that I am sitting drinking coffee in a *STARBUCKS*. But I have an hour to wait for the ferry, the backpacks are heavy and the armchairs are confortable.

Many on this forum, myself included, quote some TA gibberish when it supports our fundamental or emotional or irrational beliefs about our company.

So, you think it is worth-buying? You use the 37 minute & 40 second average or some bell-curve pattern.

Don't like it? Then either it is not above the 200 day, or no golden cross, or the volume is not quite good enough in the latter part of the afternoon.

Now my totally unbiased software says we passed from the red-zone (definitely avoid) to the orange-zone (down trend break) yesterday.

But it is just giving meaning to the randomness of share prices.


Disc: TRA is the smallest (of 10) holdings in my NZX buy, hold & pray it goes up lomg term portfolio.

[winner69]

Life has hit rock bottom for me in that I am sitting drinking coffee in a *STARBUCKS*. But I have an hour to wait for the ferry, the backpacks are heavy and the armchairs are confortable.

Many on this forum, myself included, quote some TA gibberish when it supports our fundamental or emotional or irrational beliefs about our company.

So, you think it is worth-buying? You use the 37 minute & 40 second average or some bell-curve pattern.

Don't like it? Then either it is not above the 200 day, or no golden cross, or the volume is not quite good enough in the latter part of the afternoon.

Now my totally unbiased software says we passed from the red-zone (definitely avoid) to the orange-zone (down trend break) yesterday.

But it is just giving meaning to the randomness of share prices.


Disc: TRA is the smallest (of 10) holdings in my NZX buy, hold & pray it goes up lomg term portfolio.

I love your bell curve patterns mate ....sure it will play out with Turners

[Beagle]

Life has hit rock bottom for me...
Many on this forum, myself included, quote some TA gibberish when it supports our fundamental or emotional or irrational beliefs about our company.

So, you think it is worth-buying? You use the 37 minute & 40 second average or some bell-curve pattern.


Disc: TRA is the smallest (of 10) holdings in my NZX buy, hold & pray it goes up lomg term portfolio.

There is always someone worse off than you. At least you didn't have to put one of your dogs to sleep today to stop his pain from cancer.
Also my smallest holding on the NZX and bought back in on not much more than a wing and a prayer...hoping it might cover some of my vet bills.

[winner69]

There is always someone worse off than you. At least you didn't have to put one of your dogs to sleep today to stop his pain from cancer.
Also my smallest holding on the NZX and bought back in on not much more than a wing and a prayer...hoping it might cover some of my vet bills.

Hey that’s very sad about the dog. My condolences

Take care

[Beagle]

Hey that’s very sad about the dog. My condolences

Take care

Thanks mate, much appreciated. I know you lost two pets late last year...its a pretty tough gig when the time comes isn't it !

[Snow Leopard]

There is always someone worse off than you. At least you didn't have to put one of your dogs to sleep today to stop his pain from cancer.
Also my smallest holding on the NZX and bought back in on not much more than a wing and a prayer...hoping it might cover some of my vet bills.

You have my deepest sympathy.
Parted company with many a friend over the years, but still have their paw-prints on my heart.

Not particularly a dog person myself but a few days ago we were adopted by one as we went for our morning walk. Found ourselves worrying whether he was going to get in physical strife with the monkey troops and other dogs but it was all teeth bareing and barking from a safe distance, luckily.

[RupertBear]

There is always someone worse off than you. At least you didn't have to put one of your dogs to sleep today to stop his pain from cancer.
Also my smallest holding on the NZX and bought back in on not much more than a wing and a prayer...hoping it might cover some of my vet bills.

Aww sorry to hear that Mr Beagle. My sympathy to you and your family. Its a tuff call to have to make but its an act of love and kindness to end their suffering. Treasure your happy memories. Take care

[Beagle]

You have my deepest sympathy.
Parted company with many a friend over the years, but still have their paw-prints on my heart.

Not particularly a dog person myself but a few days ago we were adopted by one as we went for our morning walk. Found ourselves worrying whether he was going to get in physical strife with the monkey troops and other dogs but it was all teeth bareing and barking from a safe distance, luckily.
Much like on this forum sometimes lol

Aww sorry to hear that Mr Beagle. My sympathy to you and your family. Its a tuff call to have to make but its an act of love and kindness to end their suffering. Treasure your happy memories. Take care
Thanks guys. We still have one remaining Sydney Silky Terrier from the 3 boys we bought nearly 13 years ago. Basil is happy to pull triple duties on the patting and cuddling stakes as he's always been the most cuddly of the 3 dogs by miles. I know you're not supposed to play favourites but I count it a blessing the one I feel the very closest bond with is still with us. Might get a Beagle puppy again in due course when the time is right :t_up:
Next divvy from TRA will come in handy...hope it arrives before my next credit card bill containing all the vet bills does !

[percy]

There is always someone worse off than you. At least you didn't have to put one of your dogs to sleep today to stop his pain from cancer.
Also my smallest holding on the NZX and bought back in on not much more than a wing and a prayer...hoping it might cover some of my vet bills.

Sorry to hear .Sad day for you and your wife.
Trust today's TRA posts have brought a smile to your face.
Bell Curves,
Bottom Pickers' champion is Couta1..
37 sec moving average cossing the 40 minute one.
What next?

[Beagle]

Sorry to hear .Sad day for you and your wife.
Trust today's TRA posts have brought a smile to your face.
Bell Curves,
Bottom Pickers' champion is Couta1..
37 sec moving average cossing the 40 minute one.
What next?

Thanks Percy. $2.50 ?

[percy]

Best to check with Couta1.............................,Well he has been spot on of late with his calls.

[Beagle]

Best to check with Couta1.............................,Well he has been spot on of late with his calls.
Wish I could...he's on his way to South Africa for a few weeks, probably there now. Will email him this evening and get his new target price but I think he'll probably stick with his $3.80 relativity theory !

[percy]

I think he is right.
May take a year or two.

[CD_CHCH]

Condolences on your loss Beagle - we feel your pain.

We lost our beautiful retriever a couple of years back but the hole she left in our life remains.

Gone but never forgotten.

[winner69]

I think he is right.
May take a year or two.

That $3.80 in 20 months or so when the perfect inverse bell curve pattern is completed ...so by Christmas 2020.

That nearly 40% pa capital return .....and then there’s divies on top of that

Pretty good eh

Glad I didn’t join in the capitulation party a week or so ago

Always good to buy at 214/218

But a decent takeover offer in a few months would be better

[Beagle]

Condolences on your loss Beagle - we feel your pain.

We lost our beautiful retriever a couple of years back but the hole she left in our life remains.

Gone but never forgotten.

Thanks mate, much appreciated. Time for a new puppy for you perhaps ? Found these for you. Just 8 days to go and they look absolutely gorgeous :) https://www.trademe.co.nz/pets-animals/dogs/dogs-for-sale/other/auction-1977321472.htm?rsqid=76a9ddcfb9f446f28f11e7f2e0ab6 7bd

Keep it quiet but I reckon a great puppy is the best possible investment you can ever make. What other investment costs you a thousand or two and a few weeks later you wouldn't sell for a million dollars !
A dozen or so years of unconditional love for a couple of thousand bucks, the best investment you will ever make ?

[peat]

welcome aboard Beagle and sorry for your loss of a loved one.

A busy day here today on this thread while I was driving to Jerusalem and back.
Sellers definitely seem to have dried up with large price gaps between listed sellers.

[winner69]

Percy wanted you all to see this from another forum

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503446&objectid=12211523

Absolutely amazing success story ...percy can fill you in on the details

[winner69]

Give the Turners Whangarei boss a rise —

“We still provide the whole nine yards to customers – buy, sell, finance and insurance," Daley said.

Possibly a Bruce Willis fan rather than something he learnt in a management course though I don’t know if the ‘last three feet’ is important these days.

[winner69]

Good to see them getting out and promoting themselves to prospective investors

Need all the help we can get in these dire times

Hopefully enough enthusiasm shown to get punters to buy big ...should be in everybody’s portfolio ,,,$2,50 next week

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

[Joshuatree]

Great stuff, next time i snoop around the local Turners i may slap some stickers on all the cars in the back two rows

FREE THERAPEUTIC MASSAGE WITH EACH PURCHASE

[minimoke]

Good to see them getting out and promoting themselves to prospective investors

Need all the help we can get in these dire times

Hopefully enough enthusiasm shown to get punters to buy big ...should be in everybody’s portfolio ,,,$2,50 next week

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

Alarm bells;

"emerging company" (been around for a while now!
"Forsyth BArr" (kiss of death)

[Beagle]

Good to see them getting out and promoting themselves to prospective investors

Need all the help we can get in these dire times

Hopefully enough enthusiasm shown to get punters to buy big ...should be in everybody’s portfolio ,,,$2,50 next week

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

Margins under pressure and loan delinquencies from higher risk loans worse than expected. Both these things are matters I fully expected and are probably already priced into the current share price but we live in interesting times so only time will tell.

[blackcap]

Good to see them getting out and promoting themselves to prospective investors

Need all the help we can get in these dire times

Hopefully enough enthusiasm shown to get punters to buy big ...should be in everybody’s portfolio ,,,$2,50 next week

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

I like the quote on page 5 "Experienced management team with oversight from professional and engaged Board of Directors"

[winner69]

I like the quote on page 5 "Experienced management team with oversight from professional and engaged Board of Directors"


...and they said they operate in Australia

[BlackPeter]

Good to see them getting out and promoting themselves to prospective investors

Need all the help we can get in these dire times

Hopefully enough enthusiasm shown to get punters to buy big ...should be in everybody’s portfolio ,,,$2,50 next week

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

The graph on slide 7 is telling - a highly cyclical market (low annual overseas regos are 50% of peak) and we are just moving down from the peak in 2017 ... that's still a long way to come down.

10390

And yes, I think they follow a good strategy supported by an unfortuntately not fully committed board. I don't see them crashing into the ground, but I would expect revenues and earnings to dip for some years to come. Will they be able to maintain the amazing dividends? Who knows?

No doubt, though - they might come out stronger at the other end of the dip ...

[winner69]

BlackPeter ..

The graph on slide 7 is telling - a highly cyclical market (low annual overseas regos are 50% of peak) and we are just moving down from the peak in 2017 ... that's still a long way to come down.




I though exactly the same thing ....hmm

[percy]

Percy wanted you all to see this from another forum

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/northern-advocate/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=1503446&objectid=12211523

Absolutely amazing success story ...percy can fill you in on the details

Thanks W69.
I am sure Ress Daley is no relation to that great motor trade dealer one "Arthur" Daley out of Minder.!!..lol.

[percy]

Margins under pressure and loan delinquencies from higher risk loans worse than expected. Both these things are matters I fully expected and are probably already priced into the current share price but we live in interesting times so only time will tell.

The cause we know was MTF non-recourse loans.
Turners tightened their lending criteria [april last year],so we should see these MTF loan impairments reducing.
Car sales margins will remainunder pressure until BuyRight Cars old stock is completely cleared.
Maybe we will see tighter margins on car sales in future,however finance,insurance,end of life logistics, and property development margins should remain sound.

[Balance]

Alarm bells;

"emerging company" (been around for a while now!
"Forsyth BArr" (kiss of death)


Interesting that with only 17 days left to go to year end, TRA is not prepared or able to give a trading update?

Also, while the presentation slides of the half year results (Nov 2018) and the Forsake (Oops - Forbar) are substantially the same, there is one very interesting (and telling?) difference :

1. Slide 4 of HY19 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/327417/291312.pdf

"Expecting consolidation in the used car industry'

Now turns to Slide 7 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

Now "Correction / consolidation occurring in the dealer markets which is good for Turners med/long term" :t_down:

Good med/long term?????

Clearly, TRA is being impacted short term then! :scared:

And why should TRA expect to be a beneficiary when barriers to entry in the used car industry is so low?

[percy]

Buy a truck and try to compete with Mainfreight.
Brand.
NZ's most trusted used car brands....Turners and BuyRight Cars.

[Beagle]

Interesting that with only 17 days left to go to year end, TRA is not prepared or able to give a trading update?

Also, while the presentation slides of the half year results (Nov 2018) and the Forsake (Oops - Forbar) are substantially the same, there is one very interesting (and telling?) difference :

1. Slide 4 of HY19 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/327417/291312.pdf

"Expecting consolidation in the used car industry'

Now turns to Slide 7 http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/331936/296734.pdf

Now "Correction / consolidation occurring in the dealer markets which is good for Turners med/long term" :t_down:

Good med/long term?????

[[B]/B]Clearly, TRA is being impacted short term then! :scared:

And why should TRA expect to be a beneficiary when barriers to entry in the used car industry is so low?

Yeap I picked that up too mate and skim read the presentation and interpreted it as basically confirming the downgrade announcement of November 2018.
None of this surprises me though and is probably factored in to the current share price. Those hoping for an eventual recovery to the former glory days of $3.80+ are in my opinion going to need a GREAT deal of patience.

[Balance]

Buy a truck and try to compete with Mainfreight.
Brand.
NZ's most trusted used car brands....Turners and BuyRight Cars.

BuyRight Cars - most trusted used car brands?

Says who?

They certainly advertise a lot but that's a function of scale.

I can tell you that BuyRight Cars is definitely NOT a quality used car dealer from personal experience! You just have to see some of the crap (high mileage aged Jap cars) they sell on their yard!

And by TRA's own admission, they bought a bit of a dog?

[Balance]

Yeap I picked that up too mate and skim read the presentation and interpreted it as basically confirming the downgrade announcement of November 2018.
None of this surprises me though and is probably factored in to the current share price.

Tend to agree with you but one has this nagging feeling that the downgrade is going to be a lot worse than the 5-10%.

[percy]

BuyRight Cars - most trusted used car brands?

Says who?

They certainly advertise a lot but that's a function of scale.

I can tell you that BuyRight Cars is definitely NOT a quality used car dealer from personal experience! You just have to see some of the crap (high mileage aged Jap cars) they sell on their yard!

And by TRA's own admission, they bought a bit of a dog?

From Turners brand research .Nov 2017..[sorry nothing later that I have seen].
Buy Right Cars Nov 2017;Satisfaction 88%.Likelihood to repurchase 77%.

[Beagle]

Tend to agree with you but one has this nagging feeling that the downgrade is going to be a lot worse than the 5-10%.

They have an official forecast in the market which they subsequently qualified on 27 November. One presumes that the directors know about their continuous disclosure requirements under NZX listing rules ?

[winner69]

Buy a truck and try to compete with Mainfreight.
Brand.
NZ's most trusted used car brands....Turners and BuyRight Cars.

C’mon Percy ...most trusted?

2 Cheap Cars looks more trusted (8% v 4%) than Buy Right

Somebody once told me once that the gold standard of most trusted brands is the Readers Digest one.....and that used car dealers aren’t included as nobody trusts a used car dealer to start with.

[Balance]

C’mon Percy ...most trusted?

2 Cheap Cars looks more trusted (8% v 4%) than Buy Right

Somebody once told me once that the gold standard of most trusted brands is the Readers Digest one.....and that used car dealers aren’t included as nobody trusts a used car dealer to start with.

Shades of sentiment clouding judgement? :confused:

[Beagle]

Buy Right cars needs a name change to Better Days Cars lol
Better days at Larry love used cars, what could possibly go wrong lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VbX22w9qws Come on Percy, you gotta admit it is kind of funny. I guess some of Turners end of life vehicles would fit right in on Larry's car lot :)

[percy]

"We have recently undertaken market research which shows that the Turners brand stands out strongly as the most "trusted" brand in the used car market and the brand that has the most awareness'.
Chair and CEO's report page 6 TRA's annual report 2018.
You must have missed it W69.

[winner69]

"We have recently undertaken market research which shows that the Turners brand stands out strongly as the most "trusted" brand in the used car market and the brand that has the most awareness'.
Chair and CEO's report page 6 TRA's annual report 2018.

And the presenation today had a chart of the trusted brands

Turners score shown as 45% .....Buy Right Cars 4% ...Others pretty trusted at 25%

Sample was 200

Awesome chart ....charts like that always give management the warm fuzzies ..but probably doesn’t mean very much at the end of the day.

[percy]

Buy Right cars needs a name change to Better Days Cars lol
Better days at Larry love used cars, what could possibly go wrong lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2VbX22w9qws Come on Percy, you gotta admit it is kind of funny. I guess some of Turners end of life vehicles would fit right in on Larry's car lot :)

Funny very.
Even funnier is I know a guy importing Larry's stock and making good money doing it.!
The old Ford parts truck sells for good money.!!

[winner69]

Hope the share price doesn’t fall back to 224 today

[percy]

And the presenation today had a chart of the trusted brands

Turners score shown as 45% .....Buy Right Cars 4% ...Others pretty trusted at 25%

Sample was 200

Awesome chart ....charts like that always give management the warm fuzzies ..but probably doesn’t mean very much at the end of the day.

Work to be done at BuyRight.
Sorry to other posters,however I missed this page in the presentation.

[winner69]

Presentation says Earnings per Share is consistent

Suppose that’s true if it’s still about the same as 4 to 5 years ago.

[percy]

Very consistant....lol.
Divie seems to be consistantly increasing?

[Beagle]

I noted that they are committed to 17 cps this year. I didn't notice any commitment after that, did you ? (Acknowledge average broker forecast is for increasing divvies in FY20 and FY21)

[percy]

Perhaps.?
Forbar presentation page 5 item 5.

Interesting to note Turners NIM [Net Interest Margin] although down a little, is still an incredible 9%.
So Wangarei is owned by Turners, as is their new site North Shore which is under development.I take that is Archers Road site,and today I learnt from the presentation they will develop a branch at Westgate,which means the property development margins will continue..

[Balance]

Perhaps.?
Forbar presentation page 5 item 5.

Interesting to note Turners NIM [Net Interest Margin] although down a little, is still an incredible 9%.
So Wangarei is owned by Turners, as is their new site North Shore which is under development.I take that is Archers Road site,and today I learnt from the presentation they will develop a branch at Westgate,which means the property development margins will continue..

Sale & leaseback - like the Warehouse.

[percy]

Sale & leaseback - like the Warehouse.

Yes and no.
Strategic sites I expect TRA will retain.
It worked very well for SCY,in fact it was their major profit centre when they booked their development margin.
In TRA's case they are using their insurance company's "reserve" to generate excellent returns.
It means Turners can open up where ever they want,and develop each site to suit their requirements.Most landlords want big buildings on their sites to produce big rents,however Turners need small buildings with large yards to display their stock.
From ARG's announcement last year they are keen to work with TRA.Positive.

[minimoke]

"We have recently undertaken market research which shows that the Turners brand stands out strongly as the most "trusted" brand in the used car market and the brand that has the most awareness'.
Chair and CEO's report page 6 TRA's annual report 2018.
You must have missed it W69.

Wasn't this the same company that commissioned research into director fees that surprisingly indicated they needed a pay rise. With no mention of closest peer cml director fees.

I wouldn't trust any of their self commissioned research

[percy]

Wasn't this the same company that commissioned research into director fees that surprisingly indicated they needed a pay rise. With no mention of closest peer cml director fees.

I wouldn't trust any of their self commissioned research

Perhaps you would trust your own experience of excellence from Turners, when you last brought a vehicle from them.?
I know I trust my daughter's experience of Turners excellence when she brought a car from them.

[minimoke]

Perhaps you would trust your own experience of excellence from Turners, when you last brought a vehicle from them.?
I know I trust my daughter's experience of Turners excellence when she brought a car from them.
Last time was towards end of last year. With the Russian firm just behind Turners. Excellent service, car and price. Turners did not stock vehicle we were after (Subaru).

Before that was "Firm That Shall Not Be Named" but man, their cars seemed too cheap as were their facilities. Dodgy car and I wonder if staff had work permits. Didn't buy

Before that some guy flogging a few cars out of his garage. Great guy, great car great price.

Before that Hyundai dealership. Great service, great price, great car. Even better was after sales support. Charged me about 5 bucks to replace a rear bulb that was tricky to get out.

Before that Value Cars Warehouse. Great car, great service, great price. Put right iffy battery before sale.

All cars ran really well with no problems.

Geez - there really is quite the selection!

[sb9]

You will be forgiven to think that you missed that profit upgrade announcement from company...there wasn't one.

[Beagle]

Market profoundly dislikes uncertainty. Now that the company has ostensibly confirmed the tougher trading conditions they articulated in late November 2018 some of the uncertainty is removed. Didn't notice any really strong adjectives in their presentation like extremely tough or very challenging so maybe an okay-ish sort of result coming for FY19 ?

[Balance]

Market profoundly dislikes uncertainty. Now that the company has ostensibly confirmed the tougher trading conditions they articulated in late November 2018 some of the uncertainty is removed. Didn't notice any really strong adjectives in their presentation like extremely tough or very challenging so maybe an okay-ish sort of result coming for FY19 ?

You never know - TRA may really really surprise by announcing a profit upgrade indeed! :t_up:

[winner69]

There never was a downgrade ....most just assumed it to be

NPBT will still be $35m to $36m

Is that an upgrade ..no ....but better than expected seeing the possible hasn’t likely happened

[winner69]

Close at 233 — cool

Never again to see the 220s

Better than expected guidance = share price back to 3 bucks sooner than later

[Joshuatree]

Undercover snoop number 2

Dropped into Turners in Hamilton last friday early arvo.
Great location very visual, from the busy road, like tauranga, modern looking, simple lines and tidy as.Zillions of vehicles.

Went in through the side entrance this time straight to the free standing workstation in the big open shed full of cars. Unlike tauranga no one at it and the staff strolled around ignoring us, nothing brisk here. I finally went back to office in main entrance and had to ask where the catalogues were, hard to find, they were on both counters in tauranga. My mate came back from the toilet and someone had turned up at work station. He asked about EV's and Hybrids. She couldn't help him!!!?.Couldnt find if they had any!

We spent about 20 mins there, it was bigger and more stock then tauranga. We didn't see even ONE punter looking the whole time!!!:confused:.

Maybe they would sell more cars if they offered with each purchase a free massage with a happy ending?

[Beagle]

I think most punters are looking online now and physically only turn up on the weekends to test drive and haggle the deal.
I've previously been to the massive yard Andrew Simms has at Botany Downs on a Tuesday and was the only one their evaluating a car and that dealership represents quite a number of marques and is VAST.

[Joshuatree]

Yes im planning a weekend visit and it would be interesting to know what % goes to dealers.

[BlackPeter]

Still trying to use the TRA story to learn - and find the current "uplifting mood" on this thread quite interesting.

So - where are we?

SP lifted from a low of $2.14 to previous highs of $2.33 (but not higher). No higher highs;
Volume was throughout the bounce neglegible, low even for such an illiquid stock. No big buyer, no market support.
SP just scratched the MA50 and is ways below MA100 and MA200;

Looking at the trendline - the indicators for the current bounce look quite similar to the bounce around October last year (compare the blue potatoes with the red potatoes :);

10401

Similar SP bounce (obviously different start and end points), similar low volume and similar RSI shape and level.

While I wish holders all the best - I think there is a good chance the bouncing cat is dead ... not seeing any signs of market confidence.

But of course - they could come out tomorrow and telling us about this amazing upswing in the second hand car market - and up she would go ;);

[percy]

I was in AutoDream the other day looking at a 2005 Nissan Bluedird done 16,303 klms.Idea was to replace the daughter's which has done 130,000klms.
Asked the salesman whether trade was a bit slow?.No "about nornmal."
Perhaps posters may have realised used car sales are "about normal."
Then again, if you read the link W69 gave post # 4670 page 312 on this thread,we know Turners developments produce great results,"The whole nine yards."
Even better to know this site is owned by Turners,and it will produce great results for years to come."Turners Corner".

[winner69]

Still trying to use the TRA story to learn - and find the current "uplifting mood" on this thread quite interesting.

So - where are we?

SP lifted from a low of $2.14 to previous highs of $2.33 (but not higher). No higher highs;
Volume was throughout the bounce neglegible, low even for such an illiquid stock. No big buyer, no market support.
SP just scratched the MA50 and is ways below MA100 and MA200;

Looking at the trendline - the indicators for the current bounce look quite similar to the bounce around October last year (compare the blue potatoes with the red potatoes :);

10401

Similar SP bounce (obviously different start and end points), similar low volume and similar RSI shape and level.

While I wish holders all the best - I think there is a good chance the bouncing cat is dead ... not seeing any signs of market confidence.

But of course - they could come out tomorrow and telling us about this amazing upswing in the second hand car market - and up she would go ;);

Similar patterns bid 2017 ...before it kicked on to $3.80 ...need to consider the green potatoes

But the most important pattern in play at the moment is the perfect inverse bell curve one......looking good for $3.80 next year.

[stoploss]

I was in AutoDream the other day looking at a 2005 Nissan Bluedird done 16,303 klms.Idea was to replace the daughter's which has done 130,000klms.
Asked the salesman whether trade was a bit slow?.No "about nornmal."
Perhaps posters may have realised used car sales are "about normal."
Then again, if you read the link W69 gave post # 4670 page 312 on this thread,we know Turners developments produce great results,"The whole nine yards."
Even better to know this site is owned by Turners,and it will produce great results for years to come."Turners Corner".

Percy you sure that one hasn't been around the clock ?

[Beagle]

Percy you sure that one hasn't been around the clock ?

LOL I was thinking exactly that myself. 16,000 km's for a 14 year old car, what could possibly go wrong lol
But it will come with a "certified" odometer so it must be correct lol

[percy]

Percy you sure that one hasn't been around the clock ?

Yes,you cheeky blighters..
I brought mine new one with 19,500 klms and this one is in the same condition.Perfect.
Daughter's [my old one] still goes really well.

ps Neither you,or Beagle had any complaints when you rode in the old one...lol.

[percy]

I note we have had no share buy back announcements since 8th March.

[BlackPeter]

I note we have had no share buy back announcements since 8th March.

Funny coincident - 8th of March was the day the SP started to rise (though note my previous posts - on very weak volume).

Maybe buy backs not so good for the SP?

[Balance]

I note we have had no share buy back announcements since 8th March.

Could be because the company is now in possession of sensitive information (eg. trading update) which must be disclosed before any more trading by insiders is allowed - company being an insider.

[blackcap]

Could be because the company is now in possession of sensitive information (eg. trading update) which must be disclosed before any more trading by insiders is allowed - company being an insider.

Does the trading update not need to be announced as soon as the company is in possession of said information? Ie they cannot sit on it can they? Or have I got my rules mixed up. I thought if it was material immediate disclosure was required.

[BlackPeter]

Does the trading update not need to be announced as soon as the company is in possession of said information? Ie they cannot sit on it can they? Or have I got my rules mixed up. I thought if it was material immediate disclosure was required.

I think you are right.

[percy]

Funny coincident - 8th of March was the day the SP started to rise (though note my previous posts - on very weak volume).

Maybe buy backs not so good for the SP?

I think FNZC may have been buying more than the 30% traded.Some days it appeared to me they were buying close to 49% of the shares traded.

Perhaps they are now waiting for the number of shares traded to match the number they have already brought.?

[peat]

I think FNZC may have been buying more than the 30% traded.Some days it appeared to me they were buying close to 49% of the shares traded.


How do you know which broker is buying how much?

[percy]

FNZC are doing the buyback for Turners.

On 7th March 81,579 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 8th March Tra announced they had brought back 35,042 shares...or 42.95% of the shares traded,not 30%

On 5th March 48,722 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 6th March TRA announced they had brought back 23,000 shares or 47.20% of the shares traded,not 30%.

On 6th March 329,744 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 7th March TRA announced they had brought back 163,000 shares,or 49.43% of the shares traded.not 30%

[forest]

FNZC are doing the buyback for Turners.

On 7th March 81,579 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 8th March Tra announced they had brought back 35,042 shares...or 42.95% of the shares traded,not 30%

On 5th March 48,722 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 6th March TRA announced they had brought back 23,000 shares or 47.20% of the shares traded,not 30%.

On 6th March 329,744 TRA shares were traded on market.
On 7th March TRA announced they had brought back 163,000 shares,or 49.43% of the shares traded.not 30%

Percy check out the percentage of shares bought back between 30 Jan and 8 of Feb, its by far the majority and some days there was a high number of shares traded.

[percy]

Percy check out the percentage of shares bought back between 30 Jan and 8 of Feb, its by far the majority and some days there was a high number of shares traded.

Very rough figures.
On a number of days approx 85% of the shares traded were brought back by TRA.
Confirms my thoughts that FNZC need to wait for the market to catch up, before they re enter the market.

[BlackPeter]

I see CMO published their half yearlies already 4 weeks ago:

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/330839

Revenue up 4%, but earnings down 9.3%.


The immediate outlook is for revenue to remain high but lower margins and higher costs will constrain trading profitability.

I guess this fits well into the cyclical picture of the car market TRA published recently (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4371-TRA-Turners-Automotive-Group-previously-TNR-Turners-Limited&p=751258&viewfull=1#post751258) - doesn't it?

Maybe we should be prepared for the downturn in the industry to continue for the next couple of years ... A return to $3.80 might take a bit longer ;);

[percy]

Maybe.?
However I see TRA's
Sales from new yards helping to keep sales up,and offering the opportunity for finance and insurance.
finance ie Oxford Finance enjoying growth from incresed number of originators.Now approx 500 sites.
Autosure enjoying growth.
Service enjoying growth.
Excellent property development [revaluations],and a possible good profit from a North Shore site sale.

Whangarei.Interesting to note the new site is in a much better location and holds 25% more vehicles.Will yearly turnover be
up 25% to 50% or more.?

Possibly very large developments in both ChCh and Auckland.

[winner69]

At this be of those friendly investor roadshow that’s NGOs last year I heard they were talking about doubling market share

Wonder how that’s progressing

[percy]

Progressing well.driven by both more sites and better located sites.
Whangarei,New Plymouth,Hamilton {BuyRight Cars], and Wellington would be helping that strategy.
New site on North Shore [Archers Road]should be open in August, and also a new development announced for Westgate.

[winner69]

Whangarei,New Plymouth,and Wellington would be helping that strategy.

Have they ever said what there market share is?

Vaguely recollect somebody talking about 5%

[percy]

I also "vaguely" remember 5%.

[peat]

I also "vaguely" remember 5%.

Does this answer the question ?

10416

To me this says they have 10%

[winner69]

Maybe it was 5% and now about (but less than) 10%

Doubled msrket share ...job well done

[winner69]

A marketeers nightmare.....

.....41% say Turners most trusted used car dealer and 88% say they will use again .......but market share between 5% and 19%

[Beagle]

Maybe it was 5% and now about (but less than) 10%

Doubled msrket share ...job well done

The way they put that number of 10% out there at the investor road show was more an aspirational target. I doubt they are anywhere near that yet but who knows...

[percy]

The way they put that number of 10% out there at the investor road show was more an aspirational target. I doubt they are anywhere near that yet but who knows...

Doubling NZ used vehicle market share in less than one year would be impossible.
I know it is a full moon ,but really.!!!
I think they are on track,the new yards look great, and are offcourse "well positioned,"................lol.

[Snoopy]

Doubling NZ used vehicle market share in less than one year would be impossible.
I know it is a full moon ,but really.!!!
I think they are on track,the new yards look great, and are offcourse "well positioned,"................lol.

Our insider admits Turners are 'off course' and setting impossible sales targets? Time for all shareholders to worry?

SNOOPY

[percy]

Your comments should be directed at the other Beagle.

[winner69]

End of Financial Year next week ...they essentially know by now the result

SO NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS

NPBT likely to $33m to $35m .....decent growth over last year

Share price back to $3 before we know it

Glad some packed a sad below $2.20 and fearfully sold out ...thanks

[minimoke]

End of Financial Year next week ...they essentially know by now the result

If turners have a 50% off type sale this weekend we know numbers aren't looking good

[Balance]

End of Financial Year next week ...they essentially know by now the result

SO NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS

NPBT likely to $33m to $35m .....decent growth over last year

Share price back to $3 before we know it

Glad some packed a sad below $2.20 and fearfully sold out ...thanks

That's what the Synlait shareholders thought.

No news may mean we do not want to give you the bad news just yet?

[Beagle]

Your comments should be directed at the other Beagle.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vURZqS2xMkI No interest whatsoever in the bait or the Moon cycle :p

[percy]

Incredible.
Reminds me why ARG are happy to have a "mutually beneficial long-term reltionship " with Turners.
Land banking by ARV.
Turners need land/space/yard to display vehicles.Buildings are moveable containers. So bare land would suit them.
At end of lease Turners move on with their container buildings.
ARV have a site to "fully" develop,brought years ago, and the rent would have covered their holding costs.
Clever,like the hound who in the end woke up and scored the treat.
Well we are past the full moon,and all is well,next stop the divie announcement.

[oldtech]

Well we are past the full moon,and all is well,next stop the divie announcement.

I'm afraid it will have to be a SPECTACULAR divvy announcement to make up for my capital losses on this. :(

I started getting hopeful last week when the SP rose into the $2.30 range, but alas it was short-lived. Here we are at $2.26 and a profound lack of interest from buyers and sellers alike.

[percy]

Stay disappointed.!
Will be 4 cents fully imputed per share at the end of April.
Looks as though the lull in selling was caused by the seller being on holiday for a couple of weeks...lol.

ps.I have seen some photos of the new Whangarei Branch.Looks great.

[oldtech]

Stay disappointed.!

Yeah, I'm used to it now ... ;)

[BlackPeter]

One month ago I sold out my complete TRA holding after losing faith into the company. Looks like I managed to find pretty much the SP bottom for doing so.

However - on the bright side - I used the money to buy HGH ... and hey - I am already now 3% better off thanks to this swap than if I would have kept my TRA shares. And to be honest - I think my up chances look better as well ;);

10428

Memo: It even can be good to sell at the bottom;

[oldtech]

My SELL finger is getting itchy, but currently there's nothing I really want to move the money into - well not at the right price to justify the loss I'll make.

Sitting tight for now and waiting for winner's promised return to $3. :cool:

... unless something better comes along ...