TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[sb9]

Martin Berry (Director) sounds lot better exciting than other two before.

[Joshuatree]

Digital sales the future. Data analytics, AI. Disruptive innovation, growth in subscription model, 10% of household income spent on sub services. carlys bring the tech and expertise for sub based service into NZ mkt this year.Buyers will buy online and turners will deliver the car to their door.
150,000 visits to turners site last month

[LAC]

Martin was good. Looking forward to a chat with him after

[Joshuatree]

Bakers a bit embarrassing, Todds great.

[winner69]

Meeting done the trick ....share price surging

Hope it’s not just the believers buying more but rather new punters coming on board ..esp those seduced by the modern way of doing things

[BlackPeter]

Meeting done the trick ....share price surging

Hope it’s not just the believers buying more but rather new punters coming on board ..esp those seduced by the modern way of doing things

Well yes, roughly 20,000 shares changed hands during the meeting - and 443 of these shares have been sold at the 5 cent premium you mentioned. Amazing show of confidence ...

But yes, Martin Berry was a great presenter. Didn't talk though about the risks inherent in any big IT implementation (I think historically it is 20 % which go well).

I was as well surprised that they currently don't seem to know which cars the markets want ... if they need to buy and implement big AI systems to find out.

[winner69]

Share price hit 250 ...that’s good

[sb9]

Much better ASM today compared to last year's one and bit more purpose in their intent which was missing last time.

[LAC]

Being quite involved In machine learning tech, it’s a diff beast, there’s always better and more analytical tools available than the ones purchased yesterday so it’s not as easy as putting a tick box to say yes we do AI. They probably have some analytics out there but there’s always better and more refined data analytics available. Most old companies use resource hungry tools like Splunk or ELK while more of the newer ones are taking advantage of the smaller startups doing great things in this space.

[percy]

As I missed the agm I really appreciated being able to watch it on You Tube.Thank you Turners.
I thought the meeting was very positive, with clarity of purpose being made very clear.

[winner69]

Share pricevup 5% so far today ...that’s good

Punters will have to pay a lot more next week to join the party

Turners into a new age company with all this IT / analytics .....might even be valued as one

This collaboration / tech stuff done no harm to the thl share price ....so looking good for Turners

[winner69]

Yippee . a close of 260

Highest close since last November

I can now call my 'investment' in Turners successful ....even if not as successful if it had got to 323 as it was meant to after the half year announcement

Could be the best thing since sliced bread now

[percy]

Yippee . a close of 260

Highest close since last November

I can now call my 'investment' in Turners successful ....even if not as successful if it had got to 323 as it was meant to after the half year announcement

Could be the best thing since sliced bread now

Psssssssssst.
Do you think the fully imputed paid quarterly October dividend will be 4cps or 5cps.?
Must admit I will be happy with either.

[Snoopy]

Yippee . a close of 260

Highest close since last November

I can now call my 'investment' in Turners successful ....even if not as successful if it had got to 323 as it was meant to after the half year announcement

Could be the best thing since sliced bread now


Look at the volume though Winner. Tiny number of shares being bid up. And the 'big' trade at $2.60 was not even a marketable parcel. I reckon it is bots chasing up their own trends. AGM said all divisions trading 'ahead of budget' and 'ahead of last year'. But no more detail, We could yet get a slow down. And it sounds like a big wad of cash is going to consultants to ramp up the Turners digital strategy. So 'trading ahead of budget' doesn't necessarily mean a profit increase if corporate costs balloon in parallel.

I watched the AGM movie. Grant Baker repeatedly stated he was 'committed' to the business and that it was the only 'active' investment he had at the moment. He didn't sound like a guy about to hang up his management driving gloves. He also said that of all the business he has invested in, he has enjoyed Turners the most because he liked discussing cars all day. He said he had owned 170 cars in his life, Sounds like an addiction. Do you still think is looking for an exit Winner? Mind you he said that picture of him as a child was was inside his fathers brand new VW in 1957. So Grant must be approaching 65. Looks well preserved though. I would have guessed he was at least ten years younger. Maybe Turners will be his 'semi-retirement' interest?

I thought director Martin Berry's speech on forward looking trends in car retailing was particularly interesting. The idea of Turners having the 'brand', 'capital' and 'customer base' and chasing after start ups to provide the 'technology', 'platform; and 'expertise' makes sense. But it does sound like some of these technology start up investments, like CL8 and those that follow, may end up as dead ducks. ' Failure will be tolerated' is a mantra familiar to tech investors. But whether the somewhat more conservative yield investors that are attracted to Turners will feel the same will be something to watch.

SNOOPY

[peat]

I'm still squirming !

Better for a closing price to be up 20 than down 20 but yes Snoopy the VWAP is only +4 for the day.
I just realised its my biggest holding (as I've been selling down some others) so the portfolio did well today (even if this stock is still a loser for me - hence the squirming).

A price rise like this on top of recent movements off lows could be the Turnering point
Did I mention the bullish gartley from Mar to August.

[winner69]

If nothing else 260 is a great starting point for tomorrow

And the chart looks cool now,


Percy ...I reckon next divie will be 5 cents in light of those fantastic sales numbers that Todd went on about.

[winner69]

Bakers a bit embarrassing, Todds great.

Baker was hopeless at question time ...more than embarrassing ..hard to find words to describe his performance.

[Beagle]

Baker was hopeless at question time ...more than embarrassing ..hard to find words to describe his performance.

Suffering from exhaust fumes inhalation from driving his Ferrari ?

[percy]

Baker was hopeless at question time ...more than embarrassing ..hard to find words to describe his performance.

Paul Brynes spoke well..................lol.
But surely the star of the show, was the old guy who got up and made a B line for the tucka, before the meeting had finished....

[winner69]

Suffering from exhaust fumes inhalation from driving his Ferrari ?

Standard of questions from the floor not up to last year’s standard.

Snoopy will be confused as the reply to that question as to what they are selling re finance division.

[winner69]

Paul Brynes spoke well..................lol.
But surely the star of the show, was the old guy who got up and made a B line for the tucka, before the meeting had finished....

.....and the lady in the brown jacket going through her Instagram feed on her mobile

Can’t tell what the others who were bored and playing with their phones were actually doing ...but snoops would say they weren’t buying shares

[couta1]

.....and the lady in the brown jacket going through her Instagram feed on her mobile

Can’t tell what the others who were bored and playing with their phones were actually doing ...but snoops would say they weren’t buying shares Last boring AGM I attended was SUMone and I was buying BAL shares before, during and after the meeting which worked a treat. PS-Nice to see u guys enjoying your day in the sun.

[Snoopy]

Standard of questions from the floor not up to last year’s standard.


Was always going to be that way with no Beagles in attendance!



Snoopy will be confused as the reply to that question as to what they are selling re finance division.


Funny you should mention that Winner. IIRC Todd told us they were still going to write loan business but they weren't sure they wanted to accept the risk of new bad debts. It left open the position that Turners might have to ring fence some of their existing bad debts to get an Oxford Finance sale through. But maybe I was reading too much into what Todd said or didn't say...

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Paul Brynes spoke well..................lol.
But surely the star of the show, was the old guy who got up and made a B line for the tucka, before the meeting had finished.... That wasn't Beagle in dress up was it?

[percy]

That wasn't Beagle in dress up was it?

Well spotted.................lol..

[percy]

Was always going to be that way with no Beagles in attendance!



Funny you should mention that Winner. IIRC Todd told us they were still going to write loan business but they weren't sure they wanted to accept the risk of new bad debts. It left open the position that Turners might have to ring fence some of their existing bad debts to get an Oxford Finance sale through. But maybe I was reading too much into what Todd said or didn't say...

SNOOPY
Turners retail will keep "originating" loan agreements.
Turners retail will keep earning an "origination fee," no matter if it is still with Turners' ownership, or someone else's ownership of Oxford Finance.
Sale of Oxford Finance would mean Turners no longer underwrite such lending,the new owner of Oxford Finance would.
Think HGH's Marac or MTF.Loan originators earn a fee.Turners retail will always earn a fee from whoever is their finance provider.

[winner69]

Was always going to be that way with no Beagles in attendance!



Funny you should mention that Winner. IIRC Todd told us they were still going to write loan business but they weren't sure they wanted to accept the risk of new bad debts. It left open the position that Turners might have to ring fence some of their existing bad debts to get an Oxford Finance sale through. But maybe I was reading too much into what Todd said or didn't say...

SNOOPY

Usual Todd waffle I think ..he’s pretty good at that

Really cool how he asked the audience whether they understood what he had just said .....and looking surprised he didn’t get an answer ...not even from the guy who asked the question who probably even more confused than what he was.

[winner69]

Apparently Todd’s tie stood looked pretty impressive on the big screen down at the bowling club.

[percy]

Apparently Todd’s tie stood looked pretty impressive on the big screen down at the bowling club.

Todd's answer was crystal clear to me.

[percy]

Apparently Todd’s tie stood looked pretty impressive on the big screen down at the bowling club.

Looked very smart from my home office too..
Sensible investor asked about how new regs would affect them,which again received a full and frank answer from Todd..

[percy]

Usual Todd waffle I think ..he’s pretty good at that

Really cool how he asked the audience whether they understood what he had just said .....and looking surprised he didn’t get an answer ...not even from the guy who asked the question who probably even more confused than what he was.

Todd's answer was crystal clear to me.

[Snoopy]

Turners retail will keep "originating" loan agreements.
Turners retail will keep earning an "origination fee," no matter if it is still with Turners' ownership, or someone else's ownership of Oxford Finance.
Sale of Oxford Finance would mean Turners no longer underwrite such lending,the new owner of Oxford Finance would.
Think HGH's Marac or MTF.Loan originators earn a fee.Turners retail will always earn a fee from whoever is their finance provider.


Yes, but I wonder what form those originating payments will be? A one off referral fee? Will Turners get to 'clip the ticket' every year? Will the loan ticket be a fixed fee or a proportion of the loan size? The answer to those questions might make quite a difference to Turners ongoing income stream from originating loans, and also the price they might get for Oxford Finance who would have to pay such charges..

Then Todd confused me with his example saying the origination fee would equally well be paid from UDC, Marac or whoever was looking after the loan. But I thought Turners had agreed to keep putting their vehicle loans through Oxford? If they sell Oxford, and there is no tied down long term deal to exclusively use Oxford for loans, that will again affect the price Turners might get for Oxford.



Looked very smart from my home office too..
Sensible investor asked about how new regs would affect them,which again received a full and frank answer from Todd..


And Todd said there could be some tighter emissions standards on the horizon, plus the electric vehicle subsidy / gas guzzler tax. See I was paying attention. But not all of Todd's answers were fully tied down to my long floppy way of hearing.

SNOOPY

[percy]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;771969]Yes, but I wonder what form those originating payments will be? A one off referral fee? Will Turners get to 'clip the ticket' every year? Will the loan ticket be a fixed fee or a proportion of the loan size? The answer to those questions might make quite a difference to Turners ongoing income stream from originating loans, and also the price they might get for Oxford Finance who would have to pay such charges..

Usually a one off based on loan size.
Paid up front and accounted for straight away.
OK the fee would be paid by the new owner of Oxford,and the fee would be inline with what other financiers such as Marac and UDC pay their originators.
Yes the new owner of Oxford would tie Turners into an originators agreement.And I would not be surprised if the new owner turned out to be either HGH's Marac, or ANZ's UDC.

The point of any sale of Oxford is simple.Turners believe they can earn a better return openning more sites and selling more cars,with insurance,and finance [commission fee], than operating a finance company,[depending on the sale price of Oxford Finance].What none of us know is what Turners will accept,or what a buyer will pay.

[winner69]

What was Baker talking about when he said Turners had (recently?) put $28m of Equity into Oxford .....and then Todd had to tell him to shut up

[percy]

What was Baker talking about when he said Turners had (recently?) put $28m of Equity into Oxford .....and then Todd had to tell him to shut up

Most probably just "house keeping" keeping ratios correct.
I would not read too much into it,other than possibly helpful for when potential buyers are doing due diligence on Oxford Finance.

[winner69]

Most probably just "house keeping" keeping ratios correct.
I would not read too much into it,other than possibly helpful for when potential buyers are doing due diligence on Oxford Finance.

Something else for Snoops to unravel?

[percy]

Something else for Snoops to unravel?

Most probably have to wait for Turners next annual report,by which time Oxford Finance could already have been sold,which would make it a pointless exercise..

[Snoopy]

What was Baker talking about when he said Turners had (recently?) put $28m of Equity into Oxford .....and then Todd had to tell him to shut up




Something else for Snoops to unravel?


Here is a table for you to ponder Winner



Consumer Loan Book Size {A}$266.518m Ref AR2019 p60


Capital Required to back Loans {A} x 0.2$53.303mQuote by Baker at AGM


Finance Division Equity$276.356m
Ref AR2019 p53


less Finance Division Liabilities$216.996m Ref AR2019 p53


less Doubtful Debts$25.247m Ref AR2019 p60


equals Residual Equity {B}$34.133m


Equity Shortfall 0.2{A}-{B)$19.170m



A $28m capital injection would more than make up for the shortfall, and allow for some loan book growth to:

($34.133 + $28m) / 0.2 = $310m

Note: The consumer loans grew as follows over the years:




20192018201720162015

Consumer Loan Balance
$266.518m$253.168m$180.908m$147.490m$127.008m



This means that there should be enough headroom at Oxford for at least a couple of years growth without the new owner of Oxford having to put in more capital.

If you are selling a finance company and you want the best price, then you want the loan book to be as clean as possible. One way to do that is to withhold the doubtful debts from what you are selling. However, if by doing this your equity backing remaining in the finance business becomes insufficient, then a capital injection might be required. $28m would nicely fill this gap. Turners could, 'on paper' shift $28m of capital into Oxford, then -provided the sale price was over $28m- the cash position of the remainder of the company would not be disadvantaged. No real need to even tell the shareholders about it as once the sale goes through, that $28m of cash loaned is all paid back It does mean though that if Oxford is sold for $100m, the net cashflow into Turners as a result of the sale process would be reduced to:

$100m - $28m = $72m

Furthermore Turners might have a dirty 'residual loan book' of $25.247m to work through.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

If you are selling a finance company and you want the best price, then you want the loan book to be as clean as possible. One way to do that is to withhold the doubtful debts from what you are selling. However, if by doing this your equity backing becomes insufficient, then a capital injection might be required. $28m would nicely fill this gap. The seller could shift $28m of capital into Oxford then provided the sale price was over $28m the cash position of the remainder of the company would not be disadvantaged.

SNOOPY

Don't know about you but I gave up on chasing my own tail a while ago and this little scheme seems suspiciously similar.
Problem loans have been growing overall and in the non recourse MTF referral part, alarmingly so.
At last years annual meeting they told us they'd changed their eligibility criteria 4 times during the year under which new loans were approved. It had a very experimental feel about it. I'm not surprised they are trying to sell their finance company because it reeks of doggy doo.

[Snoopy]

FY2019FY2018FY2017FY2016FY2015


Insurance Contracts: Change in Discount rate($0.207m)
($0.120m)$0.164m
($0.119m)($0.311m)


Insurance Contracts: Difference between actual and assumed experience$5.745m
$2.491m($0.552m)
$0.062m$0.138m


Life Investments Contracts: Difference between actual and assumed experience$0.266m$0.294m$0.420m
$0.599m$0.696m


Total Insurance Profit Contribution (after tax) {A}$5.804m$2.664m
$0.032m
$0.542m$0.523m


Declared Turners NPAT {B}$22.329m$23.192m$17.609m
$15.573m$18.069m


Insurance Adjustment/NPAT {A}/{B}26.0%11.5%0.18%
3.48%2.89%


Insurance Return on Assets (NPAT) above Contract Liabilities$1.022m$0.823m
$0.383m$0.307m$0.243m



On 31st March 2017 the 'Autosure' vehicle insurance business was acquired. That means that FY2018 and FY2019 include results from 'Autosure', whereas previous years did not.

Of the declared insurance earnings of $8.577m (AR2019 page 90), only $5.099m of 'shareholder earnings' -before tax- occurred over FY2019. So how is it that Turners can claim a larger $8.227m worth of insurance earnings over FY2019 in the 'Operating Segment' earnings on page 53?

The only answer I can come up with is that Turners are claiming profits that actually belong to the likes of life policy holders as their own. I hope someone can tell me that I am reading these figures the wrong way. Because if I am right, then these 'insurance profits' (by implication for shareholders) claimed by Turners look very dubious.


I now wish to move on to Turners 'insurance positions' as recorded in the balance sheets of the last five years. A company offering insurance will be required to estimate their liabilities going forwards and maintain an asset base that has the capability to discharge those expected liabilities. The snapshot end of year balance sheet position of Turners in this regard I have tabulated below:



FY2019FY2018FY2017FY2016FY2015


Financial Assets at fair value through Profit or Loss$66.252m$53.378m$10.320m$18.455m$17.350m


less Insurance Contracts Liabilities($51.785m)($48.378m)($42.874m)($9.489m) ($9.280m)


less Life Investment Contract Liabilities($7.484m)($7.127m)($12.847m)($15.629m)( $16.378m)


equals Funding Surplus$6.983m($2.127m)($45.401m)($6.663m)($8.308m )



FY2017 looks to be an anomaly. This is probably because Autosure was acquired on the last day of the financial year (31-03-2017) and somehow the liabilities from that deal suddenly appeared on the balance sheet while the assets that supported those liability payments did not, at least immediately

If you disregard FY2017, we can see that the overall insurance deficit has been reducing to the extent that at last balance date there was a net surplus. But does this mean that we shareholders can now claim this 'surplus money'?

While the insurance plans are in deficit, Turners has an obligation to eventually close any funding gaps. I say 'eventually' because if the actual payment of an obligation is not due for several years, Turners can use their investment skills to grow their 'on the books' insurance capital to meet those future insurance liabilities by the time those liabilities eventually become due. Yet we know investment markets can go up and down. So just because we have an 'investment surplus' now, that does not mean that we will have an investment surplus when the associated payment obligations come due.

Turners have another way to generate 'insurance capital' and that is to raise premium charges by more than the expected payouts they will make. In 'insurance speak', I think the term for this is 'reducing the loss ratio'. So we shareholders could just take the 'insurance capital surplus' knowing that if the balance turns negative again we can just increase insurance premiums. I have to admit feeling a bit queasy over the ethics of that behaviour. The counter argument would be that if the net plan deficit were to remain, then we shareholders would be obliged to make up the difference by supplying new capital. So it is only fair that we should be allowed to take away our surplus capital when it is ostensibly no longer needed.

I am left thinking there must be insurance industry rules or at least 'principles of best practice' that resolve the issues I have raised in this post. The problem is I don't know where to find them! If anyone knows please post a link!

The Turners annual result accounts seem to represent the position of stakeholders, who include both 'policy holders' and 'shareholders'. Both of our interests appear to be mixed up. I have to assume that Turners are following any 'principles of best practice' in their accounts. To that end I am thinking that the table below is my 'best guess' as to what proportion of insurance returns can be legitimately and legally accessed by shareholders. Refer to AR2019 p86 to understand where I have copied these figures from.



FY2019FY2018FY2017FY2016FY2015


Insurance Return on Assets (NPAT) above Contract Liabilities$1.022m$0.823m
$0.383m$0.307m$0.243m



SNOOPY

PS To read the entire 'Insurance Windfall Mystery' series select 'Search This Thread', then 'Advanced Search' then put in my name as author (Snoopy) with 'windfall' as the keyword. They should all come up.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Snoopy;772077

Turners have another way to generate 'insurance capital' and that is to raise premium charges by more than the expected payouts they will make. In 'insurance speak', I think the term for this is 'reducing the loss ratio'. So we shareholders could just take the 'insurance capital surplus' knowing that if the balance turns negative again we can just increase insurance premiums. I have to admit feeling a bit queasy over the ethics of that behaviour. The counter argument would be that if the net plan deficit were to remain we shareholders would be obliged to make up the difference. So it is only fair that we should take away our surplus capital when it is ostensibly no longer needed.[/QUOTE]

"Insurance speak"."Reducing the loss ratio".
a] By carefully knowing the different repair costs for various vehicles Autosure can better match premiums.I have previously posted that fixing European vehicles cost 3 to 6 times as much as Japanese vehicles.Four wheel drive are also a lot more expensive to fix than two wheel drive...[data].
b] By assessing whose liability the repairs are.A lot of times the vehicle may have been sold with an existing problem.So it is the dealer's responsibility to repair, rather than Autosure's.
c] Making sure the vehicle has been serviced as per the Autosure policy.

[Joshuatree]

Received with thanks:)
Turners continues to deliver strong dividends (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4967000/)

[sb9]

Received with thanks:)
Turners continues to deliver strong dividends (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4967000/)

Ah, yes gotta love those fully imputed divvies.

Turners CEO, Todd Hunter, said: “Turners continues to deliver strong profits and ranks in the top 10 NZX companies for gross dividend yield. Based on a share price of $2.60 the dividend yield is in excess of 9% reflecting great value for yield and growth investors particularly against the backdrop of an increasingly low yield environment. 1Q trading conditions were robust and all business divisions tracking ahead of budget and ahead of FY19 at end of Q1.”

[peat]

Received with thanks:)
Turners continues to deliver strong dividends (https://hotcopper.com.au/threads/4967000/)

well, not till October 22 actually

[Joshuatree]

Pedantic Peat lol
This news;)

[winner69]

Tueners Dunedin got For Lease signs all over it

Relocating to new huge site....or closing down?

[percy]

Tueners Dunedin got For Lease signs all over it

Relocating to new huge site....or closing down?

Relocating to a new huge site near the "Forbar stadium".
The excitement continues,as we know new and relocated sites trade "gangbusters".
Was announced in their Roadshow presentation.Also page 27 AGM presentation.You must have missed them..Not like you.Luckily you have me here to help you....lol.

[winner69]

Relocating to a new huge site near the "Forbar stadium".
The excitement continues,as we know new and relocated sites trade "gangbusters".
Was announced in their Roadshow presentation.Also page 27 AGM presentation.You must have missed them..Not like you.Luckily you have me here to help you....lol.

Thanks percy

Just on holiday and saw it. That site quite big so a new huge site will be awesome for Turners

I can feel Otago people getting excited already ...even though we’ve left Dunedin anymore

[percy]

Yes awesome.
But wait there is more.
Nelson and Timaru can expect to see a Turners branch hopefully in the not too distant future.2021.
Enjoy your holiday happy in the knowledge Turners are working hard for customers and shareholders .

[silverblizzard888]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658)

[winner69]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658)

Maybe the Board remains delusional while many of our punters were just exceedingly hopeful.

[Beagle]

Yeap, I'm on record saying the level of bad and doubtful debts and the rising trend of same meant they were never going to get an attractive multiple on the "real" earnings of this business. (Real, is the stated earnings adjusted for an independent assessment of bad and doubtful debts).
The directors think the shares are worth $3.20 so its no surprise that other parties didn't view Oxford through the same rose tinted glasses.
The worry about keeping it is the trend in bad and doubtful debts. Wonder what that review cost them ?, (coming out of FY20 earnings or do they mark this out as yet another extraordinary item ?), and what are they going to try to flog off next ?

[BlackPeter]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658)

... must be time to crank up the board fees again. Some hardship premium for having to do the job they are already paid for combined with a recognition for outstanding delusion must be in order - mustn't it?

[Beagle]

... must be time to crank up the board fees again. Some hardship premium for having to do the job they are already paid for combined with a recognition of outstanding delusion must be in order - mustn't it?

No. No. NO ! That did the dog's head in last time something fierce, not to mention was a real problem for my blood pressure lol
Went along to the 2018 annual meeting all riled up for a massive barking session and Baker the main offender wasn't even there !
Anyway...good they think that 17 cps annual dividends is sustainable now they've done another flip flop back to a fully integrated sales and distribution model.
Suppose that gives some dividend hounds something to chew on, although I hasten to add I prefer my dog food with at least a moderate level of ESG garnish on the side.

[percy]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,and profits,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending criteria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders remain "well positioned."

[winner69]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending crieria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders are "well positioned."

Yep percy ....Oxford Finance in its own right is a well performing and growing business with a strong network of active dealers across the country and Turners should “excited by opportunities to continue reshaping and growing the business.”

Now an important part of Turners growth strategy as well as a good use of capital

[percy]

Yep percy ....Oxford Finance in its own right is a well performing and growing business with a strong network of active dealers across the country and Turners should “excited by opportunities to continue reshaping and growing the business.”

Now an important part of Turners growth strategy as well as a good use of capital

Yes I always found once sales increase everything else seemed to fall into place .Had better cash flow, which meant I could take advantage of better buying opportunities,which in turn lead to better margins.I think it is fair to say when you are going forward the momemtum increases.These new and relocated branches trading "gangbusters" are certainly giving Turners great mommentum.

[LAC]

Not fussed to hear that Oxford didnt sell. Its a good business and I think it will be a good earner in the coming years and will sell for a premium eventually if they ever do end up selling.

[kiora]

Not fussed to hear that Oxford didnt sell. Its a good business and I think it will be a good earner in the coming years and will sell for a premium eventually if they ever do end up selling.

Sell the value added like Fonterror ?

[Beagle]

I was not concerned whether Turners sold Oxford or not.
In the short term the sale would have meant the roll out and relocation of sites would have been speed up.
I think the fact Turners are trading above budget,with new and relocated sites trading at "gangbuster" levels, means stock is turnover very quickly,and this will be improving their cash flow,and profits,so the need to sell Oxford has deminished.Therefore the roll out of new and relocated sites will continue.These off course help both stock turns and most importantly profits,not only for retail,but finance and Autosure as well.
Tightening up credit lending criteria,and being at the start of any loan origination, will result in Oxford being a solid performer for Turners long term.
The disastrous MTF non-recourse book still has about 18 months to run,then I would expect the level of impaired loans to revert to the low level Turners used to enjoy.
The way finance companies now have to account for loans means upfront profit is no longer recognised,and is now spread over the length of the loan.
HGH's Marac has the same issues.
Turners retail,finance and Autosure are growing,and increasing their market share,which means long term shareholders remain "well positioned."

They told us at the 2018 meeting that problematic MTF loans had just over a year to go. Are you saying one year later there's another 18 months to go and suggesting directors were deliberately lying at the 2018 meeting ?
MTF delinquencies blew out from about 8.4% to over 14% from the time of the 2018 annual meeting to 31 March 2019, from memory.
Other delinquent loans in the main book blew out from 1.6% to 2.0% over the same time period.

They really don't have a good handle on managing their problem loans in my opinion so the failure to sell is a real failure and problem loans will continue to dog this business going forward. The non sale will also he a handbrake on their ability to expand their retail footprint, let's not kid ourselves.
One of the key governance issues as I see it is that Turners directors are simply not commercially realistic with their expectations regarding the value of the various aspects of the business and that sort of arrogance doesn't serve shareholders best interests.

This is just a pretty ordinary mutt with a fair bit of doggy doo stuck under its tail, (those are the problem loans for those that didn't get the analogy).

[percy]

As far as I know there is still approx 18 months for the MTF non-recourse loans to run out.
End of this financial year would be welcome news.
Turners stopped writting MTF-non recourse loans in April 2018.

[Snoopy]

Final decision Oxford Finance not being sold. Guess no one else thought it was worth a $100 million.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658 (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341658)

I am very relieved that Oxford is being retained. My own analysis suggested that Oxford now represents up to 60% of TRA EBT earnings. Granted that figure may not be reliable because when you own every step in the business chain there is always the ability to use 'transfer pricing' to underestimate the profit performance of one division while the next division up the chain gets their profit boosted.

Finance profits would not have evaporated because TRA would earn a 'finders fee' of some kind. But the greater the finders fee was set to be, the less a potential bidder would pay for Oxford. So there was never going to be a free lunch for Turners shareholders.

The real issue with selling Oxford would be how that Oxford loan portfolio might bed in with the wider loan portfolio of whoever bought it. The sale would have been made on the expectation that the loan approval process would continue as before, just with a different owner for Oxford. But if the buyer suddenly decided to expand their reverse mortgage business (say :-P ), that buyer may decide to deploy their capital more towards the reverse mortgage portfolio and less towards motor vehicle loans. Thus Turners might find the loan capital they thought would be deployed toward motor vehicle loans ends up being deployed elsewhere, making finance for motor vehicles more difficult. This is effectively what happened, albeit in a completely different industry, when PGG Wrightson twice sold their finance division only to find they had to rebuild it from scratch each time. If Oxford had been sold, I wonder how long it would have been before a Turners owned 'Cambridge Finance' arose?

SNOOPY

[winner69]

I wonder what the next fandangled strategy Turners come up with

[RTM]

They told us at the 2018 meeting that problematic MTF loans had just over a year to go. Are you saying one year later there's another 18 months to go and suggesting directors were deliberately lying at the 2018 meeting ?
MTF delinquencies blew out from about 8.4% to over 14% from the time of the 2018 annual meeting to 31 March 2019, from memory.
Other delinquent loans in the main book blew out from 1.6% to 2.0% over the same time period.

They really don't have a good handle on managing their problem loans in my opinion so the failure to sell is a real failure and problem loans will continue to dog this business going forward. The non sale will also he a handbrake on their ability to expand their retail footprint, let's not kid ourselves.
One of the key governance issues as I see it is that Turners directors are simply not commercially realistic with their expectations regarding the value of the various aspects of the business and that sort of arrogance doesn't serve shareholders best interests.

This is just a pretty ordinary mutt with a fair bit of doggy doo stuck under its tail, (those are the problem loans for those that didn't get the analogy).

I think there is a lot of conjecture in there Beagle. These guys were originally a finance company....so I am really hopeful that they know what they are doing in that area.
In fact...that is what I bought into in the first place, a finance company. At this stage....I am trusting the company over speculative chit chat.

Cheers
RTM

[percy]

I wonder what the next fandangled strategy Turners come up with

Go to YouTube;Turners agm 2019.Both CEO ,Todd Hunter, and Director, Martin Berry made their strategy very clear.
Easy to understand too.

[winner69]

Go to YouTube;Turners agm 2019.Both CEO Todd Hunter, and Director Martin Berry made their strategy very clear.

That’s a few weeks/months out of date

Turners seem rather ‘changeable’ in their strategic thinking

[percy]

That’s a few weeks/months out of date

Turners seem rather ‘changeable’ in their strategic thinking

Only reliable "changeable" certainty is you and Beagle...lol.
Turners strategy is based on customers.Digital engagement,together with great sites trading at "gangbusters" levels.
Turners momentum is working.Even the Wellington pop up site is delivering higher than expectations.
Love to know how North Shore Archers Road is performing.Any one been in to it.?

[winner69]

Only reliable "changeable" certainty is you and Beagle...lol.
Turners strategy is based on customers.Digital engagement,together with great sites trading at "gangbusters" levels.
Turners momentum is working.Even the Wellington pop up site is delivering higher than expectations.
Love to know how North Shore Archers Road is performing.Any one been in to it.?

North Shore - haven’t been there but must be going ‘gangbusters’


No doubt in due course ‘gangbusters’ will be quantified

[sb9]

With today's price into 260s, finally in black with all those divvies collected over past year. Hopefully it'll be bit more profitable and lead into $3 mark.

[percy]

Turners strategy of opening new branches and relocating existing branches is proving extremely successful.With further branches opening, future growth is assured.This with be further strengthened by Turners using digital sales channels and data.
Increasing sales and market share will add to them increasing their Autosure and Oxford Finance revenues. Fine tuning of both Autosure and Oxford will see profits grow.Unfortunately they still have about 18 months of the MTF non-recourse loans losses to absorb.However property development profits will help to offset them.
All the time those quarterly fully imputed divies just keep hitting our bank accounts,while we wait for the share price to pass through $3 on its way to $4..lol..

[sb9]

Turners strategy of opening new branches and relocating existing branches is proving extremely successful.With further branches opening, future growth is assured.This with be further strengthened by Turners using digital sales channels and data.
Increasing sales and market share will add to them increasing their Autosure and Oxford Finance revenues. Fine tuning of both Autosure and Oxford will see profits grow.Unfortunately they still have about 18 months of the MTF non-recourse loans losses to absorb.However property development profits will help to offset them.
All the time those quarterly fully imputed divies just keep hitting our bank accounts,while we wait for the share price to pass through $3 on its way to $4..lol..

Nice one percy, I'll be more than content with a 3 handle in front of sp.

[peat]

I must say after reviewing the TRA share chart yesterday I considered it looking quite bullish.

I didnt buy any more though as currently holding a staggering 22% of my equity portfolio in these. And did hold even more briefly.

I drive past that Wellington one occasionally , as many people will do daily, that is a very busy stretch of road , and its great to see such a colourful bright brand being displayed.

Bring on 3.50

[percy]

Pleasing to see Todd Hunter as Turners appointment to CL8 board.

[golden city]

The uptrend has break out. Looking good from now

[Snow Leopard]

Look at the chart! :eek2:

Look at that pattern!! :eek2: :t_up:

TRA is forming an almost perfect inverse bell-curve pattern. :scared: :t_up: :confused:

This pattern, little known to all but the most devout of chartists who have spent many a year in solitude staring at the ancient squiggly lines, is very bullish to those who believe the stock is undervalued and 'a mere breather on the way to oblivion' for those who faith is weak.

But for me, the future is known, and I strike like a Snow Leopard on an Argali.

https://www.snowleopard.org/snow-leopard-facts/prey/

7 months later and the SP is going well.

10788

[percy]

7 months later and the SP is going well.

10788

That bell-curve pattern has served you well...

[Beagle]

10789 2 year view v NZX50 shows quite clearly that if one is going to pounce, timing is the key.
Some have got lucky with their timing but most have faced a very miserable performance relative to the NZX50 in recent years.

[percy]

Some great shares at times have not fared too well against the NZ50 .
MFT.........2000 to 2003.....and 2007 to 2010
FPH.........2002 to 2003 ....and 2011 to 2013
EBO.........2000 to 2001
FRE..........2007 to 2010
RYM.........2000 to 2003 ...and 2007 to 2009
Like the above Turners "core" business [selling second hand motor vehicles in Turners case] has continued to go from strength to strength.
Turners growth strategy is on course.
When I stopped working I held onto, and brought more dividend paying shares, for income.Part of selection process was the companies had to have the capacity to pay increasing dividends. [GNE,HGH,MEL,SPK and TRA].Once I had my income sorted,I then sorted out my fun [growth] shares.
The dividend payers have all increased their dividends,and the fun shares have certainly grown.
'Game,set and match' while remaining "well positioned".

[Beagle]

Fair observation for the time period mentioned. Have any massively underperformed the NZX50 for a 7 year period ?
TRA was (adjusted for the share consolidation some years back) $3.30 on 31/12/2012
I think 7 years is a pretty long period to use as a measurement yardstick and objectively this stock has been an extremely poor performer over a very long period of time.
I think its clear this company has nothing in common with the pedigree stocks you mentioned above, all of which really have been great performers over the long run.

[BlackPeter]

Fair observation for the time period mentioned. Have any massively underperformed the NZX50 for a 7 year period ?
TRA was (adjusted for the share consolidation some years back) $3.30 on 31/12/2012
I think 7 years is a pretty long period to use as a measurement yardstick and objectively this stock has been an extremely poor performer over a very long period of time.
I think its clear this company has nothing in common with the pedigree stocks you mentioned above, all of which really have been great performers over the long run.

Add to that the performance of its "parent" company. I guess the one good thing one can claim about Dorchester Pacific is that it survived at all, but it destroyed on the way probably 90% of its shareholder values.

Clearly not a good track record, but for sure this time it will be different.

[Beagle]

Add to that the performance of its "parent" company. I guess the one good thing one can claim about Dorchester Pacific is that it survived at all, but it destroyed on the way probably 90% of its shareholder values.

Clearly not a good track record, but for sure this time it will be different.
Of course it will ...time for a Tui lol

[percy]

Fair observation for the time period mentioned. Have any massively underperformed the NZX50 for a 7 year period ?
TRA was (adjusted for the share consolidation some years back) $3.30 on 31/12/2012
I think 7 years is a pretty long period to use as a measurement yardstick and objectively this stock has been an extremely poor performer over a very long period of time.
I think its clear this company has nothing in common with the pedigree stocks you mentioned above, all of which really have been great performers over the long run.

All are best of breed in their sector.
Turners are the best used vehicle dealers in NZ.[best of breed]
New and relocated sites are trading at "gangbuster" levels.
Further sites will continue their growth.

[couta1]

Add to that the performance of its "parent" company. I guess the one good thing one can claim about Dorchester Pacific is that it survived at all, but it destroyed on the way probably 90% of its shareholder values.

Clearly not a good track record, but for sure this time it will be different. Actually Dorchester was the only finance company where I got back most of my money(About 90% from memory) all the rest I got toasted.

[percy]

Add to that the performance of its "parent" company. I guess the one good thing one can claim about Dorchester Pacific is that it survived at all, but it destroyed on the way probably 90% of its shareholder values.

Clearly not a good track record, but for sure this time it will be different.

Hugh Greene appointed Paul Byrne to Dorchester, as it had been run into the ground by Brent King..His hard work together with Baker's involvement meant Dorchester survived.Paul Byrne's work with Dorchester Properties 3rd rate properties was incredible.All unit holders were repaid.
This is the second or third time [and the last] I have pointed this out to you.
If you want another round with Brent King you can,by buying GEN shares.[You deserve each other]..lol.

[percy]

Actually Dorchester was the only finance company where I got back most of my money(About 90% from memory) all the rest I got toasted.

Thank Baker and Byrne.

[couta1]

Thank Baker and Byrne. Had nothing to do with Baker but I cant speak highly enough of my dealings with Paul Byrne.

[percy]

Had nothing to do with Baker but I cant speak highly enough of my dealings with Paul Byrne.

Yet so many posters ,who have had no dealings with Paul Byrne ,have posted negative comments on this thread about him.

[Joshuatree]

Yep ,and as for the 7 year itch comparison , backwards looking does not a good investor make. Anyone been holding that long, fair enough, certainly not me. TRA one of the few stocks to go up today for me.Great chart. Yield hunters?

[Beagle]

Best use of long term price comparisons in my opinion is within the same sector group. This gives a good handle of the merits of one business model compared to another within the same industry.

Eg Compare RYM $4.55 on 31/12/2012 to MET $3.10 on the same day to see which model works the best over time and the answer is crystal clear.

On that subject its probably worth noting that Colonial Motors was $3.80 on 31 December 2012 and closed at $8.91 today.
Compares to TRA's "growth" from $3.30 approx. 7 years ago to $2.64 today. I think that speaks for itself but of course TRA Directors will tell you they are refining and changing their business model...but they've been doing that for a while now and the results speak for themselves. We know they like to pay themselves very handsome directors fees so the extraordinary bad share price performance begs the question of what other corporate excess is buried deep in their accounts ?

CMO's performance no doubt helped by very reasonable directors fees which probably sets the tone for considerable other reasonableness within the company.

Crystal clear over a decent period of time with both examples above, which business model's work best.
But I'm just a silly bean counter that actually likes to quantify and measure things over time and the resident experts foretelling of stupendous growth ahead will no doubt choose to believe that going forward the results will be different. Of course they will...what could possibly go wrong :)...or could it be that the used vehicle market in N.Z. is notoriously difficult and just an extremely tough industry with razor thin margins and no barriers to entry...

[Joshuatree]

Its totally irrelevant to my time frame . Im happy with my investment and income ATPIT. Im not reccoing it , pumping it or continually dumping or down ramping it. People who do that raise questions, whats their agenda here.One thing i know for sure its not philanthropy ;so what is it?

[Snow Leopard]

http://www.catsg.org/typo3temp/pics/4cb2c94e64.jpg

Sunda Clouded Leopard (found in Borneo with some difficulty) and Snow Leopard (not found in Borneo at all)

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2019/03/04/PLSJ/5bd8e4b8-5827-4d07-822b-64bdfab03cd4-Little_Girl_1.jpg?width=540&height=&fit=bounds&auto=webp

Whilst I will make no mention of the tedious, repetitive drivel that some hound is soiling this thread with, I will say that I am not surprised that those who are the most emotionally driven in their investment decisions seem to be the ones who stress how rational they are.

The pointless picking of a particular historical time frame that suits their argument for not being invested now could lead to someone pointing out that those who bought Air New Zealand 20 years ago are still in the red, even if they reinvested all their dividends, and thus no rational person would waste their breath on them.

Investing is all about where you see a company going in the future and the balance of probabilities that you will be in profit in your chosen time-frame.

At the moment we have a TRA uptrend that is seven months old and long may it last.

Disc: Hold TRA as part of a diversified portfolio of NZX shares, which is part of a diversified portfolio of assets.

[Beagle]

Its totally irrelevant to my time frame . Im happy with my investment and income ATPIT. Im not reccoing it , pumping it or continually dumping or down ramping it. People who do that raise questions, whats their agenda here.One thing i know for sure its not philanthropy ;so what is it?

How can you be so sure. Its best not to judge others intentions by your own motivations, or lack thereof.
Could it be that some people enjoy sharing their insights for the sake of a good debate ?
Others will have a different timeframe to yours and may see the point I've made. Its obviously completely lost on you.

One other has consistently pumped this stock for many years while its consistently and very seriously underperformed the market and as a result many people have been lead astray, some of whom have lost tens of thousands of dollars, one I know of, many tens of thousands of dollars. There is always value in considered debate and analysis...if the resident promotor is allowed to post incessantly without any checks and balances many more could get lead astray...

[winner69]

7 months later and the SP is going well.

10788

Always had faith in your inverse bell curve patterns

They never fail to deliver — esp the perfect ones

Glad I kept faith around 215/220.— knowing that 380/400 is inevitable (late next year)

[BlackPeter]

Actually Dorchester was the only finance company where I got back most of my money(About 90% from memory) all the rest I got toasted.

You are probably referring to term deposits ... I was referring to share holder value (share price + dividends) - but of course, it all depends on the time frame you choose anyway.

[blackcap]

You are probably referring to term deposits ... I was referring to share holder value (share price + dividends) - but of course, it all depends on the time frame you choose anyway.

Yes indeed, SP + Dividends in Dorchester you are still well out of the money. In fact for most ppl TRA would have to get to about $20 to be back in the money.

[BlackPeter]

...

If you want another round with Brent King you can,by buying GEN shares.[You deserve each other]..lol.

Just another offensive and absolutely uncalled for dig from a poster I once used to respect. Quite saddening that you react to posters offering a different view to yours with personal attacks.

Considering that you used to peddle TRA at above $ 3 as "cheap as chips" - it might be more appropriate you acknowledge your mistake instead of shooting the messenger.

I don't know where the TRA SP will go and do wish holders luck ... but your timing was obviously atrocious.

[percy]

Paul Byrne,Hugh Greene's appointment ,was the person who managed to restore something for shareholders of Dorchester.Greene and Baker supported Byrne.
So I stand by my previous post.

[winner69]

Well ahead now ...unless I account for the lost opportunity cost.

May as well hang in there and follow the squiggly line on the chart even though I have little respect in management capabilities. They might get lucky, one can hope,

[percy]

Always had faith in your inverse bell curve patterns

They never fail to deliver — esp the perfect ones

Glad I kept faith around 215/220.— knowing that 380/400 is inevitable (late next year)

Yet under 4 hours later you are having second thoughts.
Having a touch of "The Beagles" ?..lol.

[Joshuatree]

How can you be so sure. Its best not to judge others intentions by your own motivations, or lack thereof.
Could it be that some people enjoy sharing their insights for the sake of a good debate ?
Others will have a different timeframe to yours and may see the point I've made. Its obviously completely lost on you.

One other has consistently pumped this stock for many years while its consistently and very seriously underperformed the market and as a result many people have been lead astray, some of whom have lost tens of thousands of dollars, one I know of, many tens of thousands of dollars. There is always value in considered debate and analysis...if the resident promotor is allowed to post incessantly without any checks and balances many more could get lead astray...

Im good ATPIT with my investment. Cant be sure about the future for investments.
I appreciate your sharing except when you fall back on some old habits of repetitively pumping or down ramping on a stock.There is history here way back to early Roger days. Many stocks have been posted on this way. Heartland was prob the zenith when 100's of negative posting was done. You sharing about relatives losing money in dodgy finance companies gave a little insight but did not justify the over reactions there. Anyway the champion serial influence attempts over many years has been you so pot calling the kettle is very black there. I dont want to bring this up again but with your post above, i must correct you. Lets all get on and be reasonable and sharing without feeling the need to influence others.

Percy has been a champion on TRA i think in response, to balance all the continuous negative ones from you and others. A lone voice at times. My top up recently is looking pretty good atp.

[winner69]

Yet under 4 hours later you are having second thoughts.
Having a touch of "The Beagles" ?..lol.

No second thoughts ...it’s only the squiggly line that matters and with an inverse bell curve pattern playing out its a no brainer to stay in there

Share price will go to 400 ...the only thing sad about that is inept management will claim it’s because of them.

[percy]

No second thoughts ...it’s only the squiggly line that matters and with an inverse bell curve pattern playing out its a no brainer to stay in there

Share price will go to 400 ...the only thing sad about that is inept management will claim it’s because of them.

I think had you bothered to attend Turners Wellington Road Show, you would be in a better position to offer an opinion.
Todd Hunter and Aaron Sanders, both impress me with their trade knowledge ,and full honest answers they gave to questions .
Todd has always answered my emails straight away.

[Brain]

One question that needs to be answered is

How much influence do posts on sharetrader have on the price of shares?

a) none
b) May tip the minds of a few people but the effect will be temporary
c) has effect on market sentiment will influence the TA
d) has a lot of influence. The big boys are not influencing the market at all it’s just the little guys.

[couta1]

One question that needs to be answered is

How much influence do posts on sharetrader have on the price of shares?

a) none
b) May tip the minds of a few people but the effect will be temporary
c) has effect on market sentiment will influence the TA
d) has a lot of influence. The big boys are not influencing the market at all it’s just the little guys. People have lost and made money because of posts on sharetrader and some on here are very capable of moving share prices should they so wish in a stock like TRA. Lol

[RTM]

Took a look at the TRA Presentation NZX Retail Investor evening document last night.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/340232/306840.pdf

As usual looks OK. So if we assume they are a going concern and continue to be, that they continue to sell cars at more or less the same volume and profitability as they currently do, and they continue to pay a dividend of 17c....then surely the share price must rerate a bit higher ?

17c @ 2.30 7.39%
@ 2.75 6.18%
@ 3.00 5.67%
@ 3.40 5.0%

Maybe it might make $2.75 ?

Disc... Hold...more than ideal

I reckon the SP will plateau 270-275. Will need some good results to go past that, that will take time.

[etnom]

One question that needs to be answered is

How much influence do posts on sharetrader have on the price of shares?

a) none
b) May tip the minds of a few people but the effect will be temporary
c) has effect on market sentiment will influence the TA
d) has a lot of influence. The big boys are not influencing the market at all it’s just the little guys.

When I first started investing many... many moons ago, very informative post by Snoopy on Restaurant Brands and others made me realise investing in shares was a good way to build a retirement nest egg with a little additional research. Forever grateful to Snoopy and always look forward to his post out here.

Also grateful to the Guru of TA Phaedrus for his charts and explanations... really do miss him too.

[iceman]

From www.interest.co.nz today :
THE CAR SALES RISE WAS BROAD-BASED
Yesterday we reported a good rise in new car sales, boosted by heavy Tesla sales. Today we can report that used imports were up +8% year-on-year in September, reversing s string of 19 straight months where year-on-year results were lower. We are on track to have total annual car sales of 300,000 in 2019, about -3 less than for 2018. That is one 'new' car for every 17 people, believe it or not.

[RTM]

From www.interest.co.nz today :
THE CAR SALES RISE WAS BROAD-BASED
Yesterday we reported a good rise in new car sales, boosted by heavy Tesla sales. Today we can report that used imports were up +8% year-on-year in September, reversing s string of 19 straight months where year-on-year results were lower. We are on track to have total annual car sales of 300,000 in 2019, about -3 less than for 2018. That is one 'new' car for every 17 people, believe it or not.

What a nice way to finish the week. Some good news. Thank you.

[winner69]

Shareprice in the 260’s last week

Will end this week in the 270’s I reckon

[Beagle]

I reckon the SP will plateau 270-275. Will need some good results to go past that, that will take time.

Bang on the money I reckon.

[winner69]

Bang on the money I reckon.

When sales are going gangbusters share price certain to follow .....and go gangbusters as well

[percy]

Agree with RTM and Beagle.
In the meantime the 17 cps dividend [paid quarterly], 6.42% net at $2.65, will keep the wolf from the door.
W69 agree with you too.The momentum is set to continue with all the new branches opening in the next few years.

[sb9]

Shareprice in the 260’s last week

Will end this week in the 270’s I reckon

I'll be happy with closing price of $2.70 by end of this week when it goes ex-div.

[sb9]

I'll be happy with closing price of $2.70 by end of this week when it goes ex-div.

Hmm..looks like that won't happen. One would've tht its gone ex-div today, however the answer is no.

[winner69]

You’d think that if things have been going gangbusters they will be reporting a bonza of a half year to September result

If so maybe they should be disclosing something very soon and not waiting to end of November.

Last years half year npbt was 18% up on pcp - hope we see same sort of increase this year

[winner69]

Soon we’ll be able to quantify what ‘going gangbusters’ and ‘trading ahead of expectations’ really means

Baseline is H1 operating revenues of $165m and npbt of $17m


But I hope they not doing an Oceania by selling heaps more and hardly making any more.

[SCOTTY]

Maybe we should appoint our brilliant Minister of Finance to the Board. He could revalue the company assets by $2.6b. Wouldn’t that be magic ��

[percy]

Positive announcement from CL8 today.Put their share price up 66.7%.

[winner69]

Positive announcement from CL8 today.Put their share price up 66.7%.

Awesome

Subscription the future

Just imagine what'll happen to the Turners share price when they make such an announcement

Probably be 4 bucks plus at least

[RTM]

Positive announcement from CL8 today.Put their share price up 66.7%.

Oh no...not some good news !

[Baa_Baa]

Positive announcement from CL8 today.Put their share price up 66.7%.

It does seem very positive for Collaborate, then whoa .. trading halt at 4/10ths of 1 cent up in the SP at $0.013. TH's don't happen after there's good news announced, maybe Chris said something he shouldn't have, or got some facts wrong. We'll see.

[winner69]

Amazing deal but — The initial term of the agreement with Hyundai for the subscription proposition is six months.

Doesn’t seem a very long term

[RTM]

Amazing deal but — The initial term of the agreement with Hyundai for the subscription proposition is six months.

Doesn’t seem a very long term

Amazing....did the Turners Team get something right ?

[Baa_Baa]

Amazing deal but — The initial term of the agreement with Hyundai for the subscription proposition is six months.

Doesn’t seem a very long term

I believe it is a trial, and it will also take some time to set up the tech and for Hyundai to roll out the processes across the dealer network - a whole new business model. Will be interesting to see whether it gets traction. Same for Turners, but they're gung ho for a launch this side of Xmas.

[sb9]

I believe it is a trial, and it will also take some time to set up the tech and for Hyundai to roll out the processes across the dealer network - a whole new business model. Will be interesting to see whether it gets traction. Same for Turners, but they're gung ho for a launch this side of Xmas.

Think they gave further update on $$$ involved around subscription service.

Currently 1.7c (CL8 price), looks like good investment decision by Turners at 1c, which may double in due course of time. Is this change of fortunes finally....

[Baa_Baa]

Think they gave further update on $$$ involved around subscription service.

Currently 1.7c (CL8 price), looks like good investment decision by Turners at 1c, which may double in due course of time. Is this change of fortunes finally....

Yes, they somehow forgot to post the numbers in the first announce, possibly got a bit excited about Hyundai coming on board, lol. The margin is encouraging for Turners (it’s the difference between subscription and what Collaborate get, assuming the same ratio). Close at 1.4 is encouraging, up 100% from a couple of weeks ago, and Turners back in the money. Still makes you wonder who the millions of shares are selling into the ramp and why, but one might assume there’s plenty of punters and traders relieved to have some volume to get out on with such a big % gain today. It will take some time to bring Hyundai online, so hopefully Turners launch of Carly in NZ fills the vacuum.

[sb9]

Another quarterly divvy payout has just hit the bank a/c :)

[percy]

Another quarterly divvy payout has just hit the bank a/c :)

Not in my bank as yet.
Neither is the tax refund I have been waiting for weeks.

[winner69]

Not in my bank as yet.
Neither is the tax refund I have been waiting for weeks.

I’d begin to get worried on both accounts

Maybe you’ve been ‘selected’ by the IRD to be further scrutinised

[blackcap]

Not in my bank as yet.
Neither is the tax refund I have been waiting for weeks.

That's funny. TRA have informed me that I have been paid a dividend, however the money is not in my bank account either. Strange goings on :)

[percy]

I’d begin to get worried on both accounts

Maybe you’ve been ‘selected’ by the IRD to be further scrutinised

Be the first time in 47 years my accountant has filed my return.He has not heard anything.
After being on the phone to IRD ,giving them my details,then hanging on for ages. they hung up on me.I read this is now normal practice.
In the meantime my TRA divie is not there yet.

[percy]

Be the first time in 47 years my accountant has filed my return.He has not heard anything.
After being on the phone to IRD ,giving them my details,then hanging on for ages. they hung up on me.I read this is now normal practice.
In the meantime my TRA divie is not there yet.

TRA divie has arrived.

[peat]

Be the first time in 47 years my accountant has filed my return.He has not heard anything.
After being on the phone to IRD ,giving them my details,then hanging on for ages. they hung up on me.I read this is now normal practice.
In the meantime my TRA divie is not there yet.

wow IRD hung up on me today too!
And never rang back either , and it was a call back
Anyway just thought I'd say snap to ya percy

TRA has lost some momentum. Volume slackened off. Probably just consolidating.
Still above 30MA though and found support at the previous high mid-Sep

[Timesurfer]

Have had the hangup at the end of the day after waiting on hold also. Guess when you are a monopoly customer service isn't mandatory.

[percy]

wow IRD hung up on me today too!
And never rang back either , and it was a call back
Anyway just thought I'd say snap to ya percy

TRA has lost some momentum. Volume slackened off. Probably just consolidating.
Still above 30MA though and found support at the previous high mid-Sep
Also above 100 and 200 day MA.Yahoo Finance chart.
The "Knockers" appear to have sold,and therefore the agm was positive.
Interim report should not be too far away,then I think we will be more informed to make better projections.
Current PE is 9.96 and current net yield is 6.51%.
The share buy back did not buy all the shares they intended.Were short by 419,142.

[peat]

Current PE is 9.96 and current net yield is 6.51%.
The share buy back did not buy all the shares they intended.Were short by 419,142.

I'm kind of indifferent to share buy-backs. Maybe better to pay down debt?
But those are good metrics and I've been considering doing my version of a Couta if you know what I mean. I should wait though if interim is imminent.

[percy]

I love TRA's share buy back.
At $2.55 ps TRA are saving having to pay 17 cps divie on all the shares they brought back.A net 6.67% ps.
[And they brought them back at around $2,34 and have already saved having to pay 4 cps on those]
Yet at approx gross 4.5% cost of borrowing they are well ahead.
Helps improve their ratios and I end up with a slightly larger piece of the pie.
I too would wait for the interim before deciding what course of action to take.

[percy]

Be the first time in 47 years my accountant has filed my return.He has not heard anything.
After being on the phone to IRD ,giving them my details,then hanging on for ages. they hung up on me.I read this is now normal practice.
In the meantime my TRA divie is not there yet.

Received my TRA divie OK.
Received my tax refund last night.
Now just waiting for the wife's refund.

[percy]

Received my TRA divie OK.
Received my tax refund last night.
Now just waiting for the wife's refund.

And her refund has hit our bank this afternoon.!

[Joshuatree]

Order snapper instead of hoki :t_up:tonite

[percy]

Order snapper instead of hoki :t_up:tonite

Off course.!!!
But wait there's more!
Pension Monday night.!
GNE divie next Thursday night.!
Long weekend means the pension is there already.!

[winner69]

I love TRA's share buy back.
At $2.55 ps TRA are saving having to pay 17 cps divie on all the shares they brought back.A net 6.67% ps.
[And they brought them back at around $2,34 and have already saved having to pay 4 cps on those]
Yet at approx gross 4.5% cost of borrowing they are well ahead.
Helps improve their ratios and I end up with a slightly larger piece of the pie.
I too would wait for the interim before deciding what course of action to take.

With their extraordinary high NIM I wonder how much they could have made on the buyback cash by lending it out .....probably a 'real' return instead of just proved ratios.

[percy]

With their extraordinary high NIM I wonder how much they could have made on the buyback cash by lending it out .....probably a 'real' return instead of just proved ratios.

I prefer the buyback.

[sb9]

Among other news relating to TRA some interesting development re their CL8 association

"Nov 12 (Reuters) - Collaborate Corporation Ltd (CL8 (https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/cl8)) :

SEEKS TRADING HALT PENDING ANNOUNCEMENT ON CAPITAL RAISING AND A MATERIAL COMMERCIAL AGREEMENT FOR SUPPLY OF VEHICLES"....

[winner69]

Heartland say they make ‘superior returns’ from motor vehicle lending - like >15% ROE

Turners tried to hock off their finance arm because of inferior returns but couldn’t find a buyer

Weird

[BlackPeter]

Heartland say they make ‘superior returns’ from motor vehicle lending - like >15% ROE

Turners tried to hock off their finance arm because of inferior returns but couldn’t find a buyer

Weird

Maybe its the quality of the vehicles and the liquidity of the respective owners? Heartland would mainly fund new vehicles sold to better off owners, right? Turners funds the rest of the field;

[Jay]

I would say you are right BP, HB also tied up with Winger Subaru I saw the other day driving past the yard in Greenlane

[percy]

Maybe its the quality of the vehicles and the liquidity of the respective owners? Heartland would mainly fund new vehicles sold to better off owners, right? Turners funds the rest of the field;

Yes,HGH fund mainly new vehicle franchise dealers,:Jaguar/Land Rover,Holden,and now Kia.Yet their used car finance is still bigger than new cars lending.
With HGH "upgrading" the quality of their originators,% of poor loans is very low.Intersting to is the size of HGH average motor vehicle loans has increased substantially from approx $18,500 to nearer $26,000.
TRA are the Pak"n Save of the used car market.Their market is under $20,000 ,with under $10,000 making up their biggest sector,therefore their average loan is approx $8,000 and their clientele are not as "well heeled" as the franchised dealers.
Turners still earn over 15% ROE on vehicle sales,however finance is currently still well below this level.This will slowly improve,and will greatly improve when the MTF non-recourse lending book has run its course.Longer term,maybe not quiet up to HGH's level,but a lot better than currently.

[winner69]

Best thing that’s ever happened since sliced bread

Turners and Heartland working together


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/344258/311811.pdf

[percy]

My thoughts exactly.!!
A very positive announcement.

[BlackPeter]

Best thing that’s ever happened since sliced bread

Turners and Heartland working together


http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/344258/311811.pdf


The partnership increases Autosure’s distribution network by ~20% and is forecast to generate $2m of
additional revenue per annum for Autosure.


$2m additional revenue pa for AutoSure. Not clear what Heartlands share of that would be and what the expected margin (if any) is.

Hope the agreement does not cover European and particularly British cars ... easy to break and dear to fix.

Anyway - not the world, but I guess you need to start somewhere ...

[percy]

Very different premiums for British/European cars compared to Japanese.

[Baa_Baa]

My thoughts exactly.!!
A very positive announcement.

Good indeed, hopefully Heartland update on the flip side their view of forecast contribution to business.

[Beagle]

Very different premiums for British/European cars compared to Japanese.

Very different labour rates and especially spare parts prices too !

Am I the only one who has noticed that despite TRA issuing profit forecasts in previous years they haven't for FY20 ?

[percy]

Turners' interim result last year was announced on the 27th November.
So I expect this year's will be within a couple weeks .
Perhaps it will include full year's guidance. ?

[percy]

Good indeed, hopefully Heartland update on the flip side their view of forecast contribution to business.

Doubt it.
Bigish deal for Turners. Adds credibility to Autosure,as well as more originators.
Small beer for HGH.Small ticket for Marac to add on /clip to their main auto finance loans.

[percy]

Very positive announcement from CL8 today.

[winner69]

Turners' interim result last year was announced on the 27th November.
So I expect this year's will be within a couple weeks .
Perhaps it will include full year's guidance. ?

A coupe of more sleeps

Todd just can’t wait to tell us what gangbusters really means

NPBT last year $16.8m ... this year how much more?

Hope Todd learnt his lesson from last year and doesn’t ‘hint’ at a slowdown....share price still not recovered from that fateful day

[percy]

A coupe of more sleeps

Todd just can’t wait to tell us what gangbusters really means

NPBT last year $16.8m ... this year how much more?

Hope Todd learnt his lesson from last year and doesn’t ‘hint’ at a slowdown....share price still not recovered from that fateful day

Talking to Heartland Bank's CEO Chris Flood,at HGH's agm,their Marac had a bit of a slow down a couple of months ago,however they are now trading very well.
As Marac's market is at the "higher" end , I doubt Turners have lost any of their momentum.
And yes that momentum is building with:
Archers Road,Northshore should be trading really well,[Big branch in the very large Northshore market]
Marac originators now offering Autosure not only adds revenue to Autosure buts adds to Autosure's product reputation .
CL8 investment is well ahead,and Carly launch must be only days away.
Perhaps with the "no sale" of Oxford Finance, Turners could weed out more poor quality originators,which would help to further improve the quality of their loan book? "Quality rather than quantity.
Going by the number of tow trucks I see going in and out of Turners end of life vehicle yard, people continue crashing their cars.So that division should be trading well too.
The end of the MTF non recourse loan book is still a year to 18 months away.so those impairments will still drag on Turners results in the meantime.

[LAC]

Slow and steady with this one. If they deliver on what they said at the AGM with regard to the new sites going "gangbusters" it will be a good outcome for holders. If there's no growth then this stock is going to get punished....

[winner69]

Slow and steady with this one. If they deliver on what they said at the AGM with regard to the new sites going "gangbusters" it will be a good outcome for holders. If there's no growth then this stock is going to get punished....

Positive start to year and tracking ahead of budget in Q1 so a good outcome assured

I only hope that they don’t revert to ‘normalising’ things - a buck of profit is a buck of profit - justifying and explaining things by ‘normalising’ things is a sign of weakness

Baseline is last years npbt of $16.8m - smash that and the share price will be $3 plus in no time

So exciting

[winner69]

ASM presentations mentioned growth related words 36 times

So expectations are high for growth

Wonder how much growth from $16.8m npbt this half year

[winner69]

Bugger ...I thought today was the 27th

I’m so excited I couldn’t contain myself.

[winner69]

At least I have another day to buy heaps before it shoots up to 3 bucks

Good sign ...somebody up there telling me it's all good

[Beagle]

Might be time for some good calming herbal tea for morning tea this morning Winner :)

[winner69]

BUGGER — PROFIT NPBT DOWN 12%

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344980

[trader_jackson]

BUGGER — PROFIT NPBT DOWN 12%

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344980

Well they can't keep selling property all the time - they aren't a retirement village or something.
Underlying profit up double digits and gross yield well over 9% at yesterday's closing price (dividends being maintained, not decreasing like Mr Market was apparently concerned about they say)

Not good, not bad... enough to send the share price to $3 really, but Mr Market probably won't do that.

[winner69]

Full Year guidance - npbt of $28m-$30m

FFS - last year was $33.6m (excluding the writeoff)

So growth and gangbusters means going backwards ...I like it

[winner69]

Even a 1% revenue increase is pathetic ....don’t see gangbusters here

[trader_jackson]

Even a 1% revenue increase is pathetic ....don’t see gangbusters here

Its no AFT is it winner...
For starters, if it was, the share price would be above $3

[RTM]

They did well with the buyback. I thought their price might have been higher.

"The on-market share buyback scheme reduced issued shares by 4 million (4.5%) at an average price of $2.32."

[winner69]

Well they can't keep selling property all the time - they aren't a retirement village or something.
Underlying profit up double digits and gross yield well over 9% at yesterday's closing price (dividends being maintained, not decreasing like Mr Market was apparently concerned about they say)

Not good, not bad... enough to send the share price to $3 really, but Mr Market probably won't do that.

I was once told property was a ‘core’ part of their business.

[BlackPeter]

Full Year guidance - npbt of $28m-$30m

FFS - last year was $33.6m (excluding the writeoff)

So growth and gangbusters means going backwards ...I like it

Jeez - this must be a new record for excessive use of the word "underlying" (as in "underlying profit", "underlying revenue" and similar) in a financial report. Outstanding example of accounting acrobatics plus fog and mist to conceal the real result: Revenue basically unchanged compared to last year (despite all these new and apparently so exciting venues) and EPS is nearly 20% down.

They report as well on a "soft" second hand car market. Surprise - surprise. Managing as well indications re dividends .... times of ever increasing dividends seem to be over - and no indications that the market is likely to improve anytime soon.

[Beagle]

Full Year guidance - npbt of $28m-$30m

FFS - last year was $33.6m (excluding the writeoff)

So growth and gangbusters means going backwards ...I like it

Some more herbal tea this morning mate ? Just a really ordinary company like I have been saying for a very long time now.
The thing that should worry shareholders is half year normalised profit is $14.8m but full year forecast is $28-30m, mid point is obviously $29m so they're suggesting that in the second half they'll only do $29m - 14.8m = $14.2m.

What on earth is the point of all these "supposed" fancy new retail sites they're starting up ? High lease costs hurting them just like any other average retail operation ?
Only reason to own it that I can see is the yield. 17 / 254 = 6.69% fully imputed = 9.3% gross. That's fine but there are other retailers like HLG with a better yield of 10% gross who really are growing.

[BlackPeter]

They did well with the buyback. I thought their price might have been higher.

"The on-market share buyback scheme reduced issued shares by 4 million (4.5%) at an average price of $2.32."

Looks like the buyback program is one of their more profitable enterprises ... selling shares around $2.80 to bondholders and buying them back at $2.32 is good money. Just not sure, whether this part of their business is very sustainable :p.

[winner69]

Some more herbal tea this morning mate ? Just a really ordinary company like I have been saying for a very long time now.
The thing that should worry shareholders is half year normalised profit is $14.8m but full year forecast is $28-30m, mid point is obviously $29m so they're suggesting that in the second half they'll only do $29m - 14.8m = $14.2m.

What on earth is the point of all these "supposed" fancy new retail sites they're starting up ? High lease costs hurting them just like any other average retail operation ?
Only reason to own it that I can see is the yield. 17 / 254 = 6.69% fully imputed = 9.3% gross. That's fine but there are other retailers like HLG with a better yield of 10% gross who really are growing.

Yep, H2 $14.2m .....last year was $16.8m

Doesn’t seem right ....setting expectations of going backwards

[trader_jackson]

Some more herbal tea this morning mate ? Just a really ordinary company like I have been saying for a very long time now.
The thing that should worry shareholders is half year normalised profit is $14.8m but full year forecast is $28-30m, mid point is obviously $29m so they're suggesting that in the second half they'll only do $29m - 14.8m = $14.2m.

What on earth is the point of all these "supposed" fancy new retail sites they're starting up ? High lease costs hurting them just like any other average retail operation ?
Only reason to own it that I can see is the yield. 17 / 254 = 6.69% fully imputed = 9.3% gross. That's fine but there are other retailers like HLG with a better yield of 10% gross who really are growing.

HLG "who are really growing"? to me it seems like they are barely growing as well, although perhaps, yes, growing a touch better than TRA... but HLG on a 20% higher PE ratio... 10 for TRA vs 12 for HLG

[winner69]

Herbal tea needed while I digest what a ‘gunna going to be ‘ and ‘if only’ company is actually like.

[BlackPeter]

Yep, H2 $14.2m .....last year was $16.8m

Doesn’t seem right ....setting expectations of going backwards

That's probably what they mean when they talk about a soft market and industry consolidation. Even if they talk about the chance to get a larger piece of the pie - they say as well the pie is shrinking!

[winner69]

They said - Oxford process concluded, significant interest above book value, but in the Board’s view, the offers did not fully reflect the intrinsic value of the business

Wonder if the significant is 1) heaps of interested buyers or 2) interest at significantly above book value

Hope they weren’t too greedy

[winner69]

That's probably what they mean when they talk about a soft market and industry consolidation. Even if they talk about the chance to get a larger piece of the pie - they say as well the pie is shrinking!

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

[Beagle]

HLG "who are really growing"? to me it seems like they are barely growing as well, although perhaps, yes, growing a touch better than TRA... but HLG on a 20% higher PE ratio... 10 for TRA vs 12 for HLG

May I suggest you actually review HLG's sales and eps growth over the last 3-4 years.

[winner69]

At least the market doesn't see this a a bad result

That's good

[Beagle]

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

I think its time to finally accept that the used car market in new Zealand is an extremely tough and highly competitive industry and with very few barriers to entry, it always will be. You can't earn outsized returns on capital invested when any man and his dog can open up a car yard or any individual can import up to 6 cars a year and sell them on trade me without a dealer licence and more importantly without any overheads. I think Trade me is taking more and more market share and a lot of business is being done by dealers and private people importing a number of cars per year and trading without all the expensive infrastructure and lease costs like Turners has.
Trade me backing up vendors with the ability to provide finance through their referral channel is a bit of a game changer because most people buy cars on finance and this undermines the traditional dealer network.

[trader_jackson]

May I suggest you actually review HLG's sales and eps growth over the last 3-4 years.

"Prior performance is not an indicator of future performance"
sum companies are a great example of how things have well and truly stalled.

Mr Market was never expecting much in the first place it seems - hence the share price has barely moved. Returns YTD pretty nice really.

[BlackPeter]

But everything in every division seems honky dory it’s just hard to envisage H2 Underlying Earnings going backwards by as much as they say in the guidance ...esp when H1 was up so strongly

Words don’t seem to match reality

You might have missed that profit in their largest division (retail) dropped significantly (8%). Not good for a retailer who gave up their one stop shop business plan.

As well - while overall revenue did hold - they needed significantly more capital to make the same revenue as last year ... this is what all these additional shares created through the bond conversion really mean. Less revenue and significantly less earnings per share.

Just doing the same stuff with more money is not a sustainable business model.

[Beagle]

"Prior performance is not an indicator of future performance"
sum companies are a great example of how things have well and truly stalled.

Mr Market was never expecting much in the first place it seems - hence the share price has barely moved. Returns YTD pretty nice really.

I have learned from long experience that talk is cheap and so are forecasts. In my opinion the best guide to future performance is the most recent past performance. The second best guide to future performance is the trend in performance going back over the last 5 years. The third best guide is what the company tells you about their prospects. That's how I measure things and I will stick to what I knows works well for me.

[winner69]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/344981/312810.pdf

[Beagle]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/344981/312810.pdf

Lot of talk though eh mate. I think the numbers speak for themselves, especially the outlook.

[percy]

Very positive presentation and analyst briefing

Thats good

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/344981/312810.pdf

Yes an excellent presentation.
Very clear and easy to understand.
A must read by shareholders, and any investors considering investing in Turners.
For me a few things I found interesting;
Northshore [Archers Road] starting to perform.This is good news as it is a very important site for Turners,as Northshore is a very large market..
Successful de-risking of Oxford Finance.And saying goodbye to poor originators.Very positive.
Funding.$72 mil undrawn.
Autosure writting better quality business.
The purchase of 10,300 m2 Mt Richmond site.Note Northshore site is 8,524 m2.
Better stock control which frees up capital and increases stock turns.
The business is in excellent shape, and "well positioned" for future growth.

[Dassets]

Not too much to say except you cannot de-risk a finance operation over 6 months. You only de-risk new loans. You still have the tail which makes up over est. 80% of total book.

[percy]

Not too much to say except you cannot de-risk a finance operation over 6 months. You only de-risk new loans. You still have the tail which makes up over est. 80% of total book.

As a shareholder in both HGH and TRA, I am pleased to see both tightening their credit criteria.
Turners own written/originated loans have always been good, so all of them going into Oxford rather than MTF, is helping the de-risk.
Also weeding out poor loan originators helps.

[Jaa]

Anyone know what Turners mean when they talk about "large consignment customers" ??

Are they corporate fleets and rental car companies?

Never mind I found this further down their presentation...


Turners sales volumes are supported by consistent supply from consignment vendors eg Lease companies who have leased cars 3 years earlier

[Beagle]

As a shareholder in both HGH and TRA, I am pleased to see both tightening their credit criteria.
Turners own written/originated loans have always been good, so all of them going into Oxford rather than MTF, is helping the de-risk.
Also weeding out poor loan originators helps.

They've been talking about that since the 2018 annual meeting in Sept 2018 and mentioned that year they'd changed / tightened their credit criteria 4 times.
Its becoming like the boy who cried wolf. It would appear to me that customers with a "prime" credit rating simply get better deals elsewhere and are very reluctant to pay Oxford's rates.

Its all very well expanding to more and more sites but as the lease costs balloon out profit remains static or in decline and that's on more shares on issue so eps goes down. Marvellous, lets put the dividend up, normalise everything and hope nobody notices !

Heck, profit in 2018 and 2019 (years when there were heaps less shares on issue), was higher than the forecast for FY20 ! https://www.marketscreener.com/TURNERS-LTD-20699914/financials/

This eps decline hasn't stopped the directors ratcheting up directors fees heaps though ! Probably push for another massive increase next year because of all the growth, or whatever other spurious reason they can concoct.

Wonder how much gets wasted on sponsorship for car racing ?

[percy]

I think you will find new sites such as Whangarei,Northshore {archers road} and newly purchased Mt Richmond site are all owned by Turners.
Yes credit tightening is working,as is being more selective with Autosure policies.
The business is in very good shape.
Quality underlying earnings.

[LAC]

Was late reading the report, disappointing imo.

[couta1]

HLG "who are really growing"? to me it seems like they are barely growing as well, although perhaps, yes, growing a touch better than TRA... but HLG on a 20% higher PE ratio... 10 for TRA vs 12 for HLG Clutching at straws much, my HLG sp grew from $3.50 to $6.27 currently over the last couple of years whilst my TRA sp declined from $3 to $2.58 currently over the same period, you do the maths.

[percy]

Clutching at straws much, my HLG sp grew from $3.50 to $6.27 currently over the last couple of years whilst my TRA sp declined from $3 to $2.58 currently over the same period, you do the maths.

Will be interesting seeing which share performs better over the next two years.?

[winner69]

Will be interesting seeing which share performs better over the next two years.?

past performance is not an indicator of future success

and

Every dog has his day (like the dogs of the Dow theory)

I think he odds are in your favour Percy

[Snoopy]

Wonder how much gets wasted on sponsorship for car racing ?


None. Apparently Turners haven't sold any cars in Europe yet. So any sales going forwards resulting from the sign writing on Liam Lawson's car from his European campaign will be positive and 100% due to the sponsorship. Turners Pau in Portugal to open soon?

SNOOPY

[percy]

Pau is in France.
They have a street motor racing circuit there.

[Snoopy]

Pau is in France.
They have a street motor racing circuit there.

Ah Thanks for that. Continental geography not my strong point. The alliteration would have been better if Pau was in Portugal though. Those Frenchies very suspicious of foreigners. Turners might still be best to open their European network in Portugal. Could be a relief for Todd? He wouldn't have to learn French to do business there!

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

past performance is not an indicator of future success

and

Every dog has his day (like the dogs of the Dow theory)

I think he odds are in your favour Percy

eps forecast 2020 24.4 cps, ( based on mid point of 2020 forecast and current number of shares on issue).
eps 2019 26.3 cps
eps 2018 29.3 cps
eps 2017 25.5 cps
eps 2016 25 cps
eps 2015 32 cps

The other hound can normalise this all he likes and with the greatest respect to Snoopy I don't care...the numbers speak for themselves.

Over the years our ears have been made to hurt very badly from repeated assurances that this company's growth is absolutely fantastic.
I'm calling it, we've been "sold" a very disingenuous story. Growth is nothing if its not eps growth and on that measure, the only one that really counts, this company is going slowly backwards.

In your words mate, its a "gunna company" we're gunna do this and we're gunna get growth from that and gunna grow from some such other thing and all the time the eps is ostensibly slowly going backwards. Meanwhile HLG has been growing eps very nicely. Some dogs are on a road to nowhere. Forward PE is 10.57 which with 10 year Govt stock where it is, is priced a little high given its slowly declining eps.

I think the odds are heavily in favour of HLG continuing to strongly outperform this very poorly performing company.
Homework for you mate tomorrow is to post up HLG's eps for the last 5 years.

I post this because people deserve to read the truth of TRA's track record. I've done my bit now, if people want to believe some fictional version of the facts and outlook, fill ya boots and buy heaps.

[RTM]

eps forecast 2020 24.4 cps, ( based on mid point of 2020 forecast and current number of shares on issue).
eps 2019 26.3 cps
eps 2018 29.3 cps
eps 2017 25.5 cps
eps 2016 25 cps
eps 2015 32 cps

The other hound can normalise this all he likes and with the greatest respect to Snoopy I don't care...the numbers speak for themselves.

Over the years our ears have been made to hurt very badly from repeated assurances that this company's growth is absolutely fantastic.
I'm calling it, we've been "sold" a very disingenuous story. Growth is nothing if its not eps growth and on that measure, the only one that really counts, this company is going slowly backwards.

In your words mate, its a "gunna company" we're gunna do this and we're gunna get growth from that and gunna grow from some such other thing and all the time the eps is ostensibly slowly going backwards. Meanwhile HLG has been growing eps very nicely. Some dogs are on a road to nowhere. Forward PE is 10.57 which with 10 year Govt stock where it is, is priced a little high given its slowly declining eps.

I think the odds are heavily in favour of HLG continuing to strongly outperform this very poorly performing company.
Homework for you mate tomorrow is to post up HLG's eps for the last 5 years.

I post this because people deserve to read the truth of TRA's track record. I've done my bit now, if people want to believe some fictional version of the facts and outlook, fill ya boots and buy heaps.

Thanks Beagle. No, I don’t think anyone should buy heaps. But I do think that particularly around current price, and if you believe people will keep buying and selling cars, that they have a place...up to 5% ? ...in ones portfolio. Particularly if you like dividends. I’m reluctant to be buying HLG at the moment, as they are at or close to an all time high.
Disc. Hold at around 300 :-(

[percy]

Will be interesting seeing which share performs better over the next two years.?

What I meant by this is ;
Will be interesting seeing which share performs better over the next two years.?
I meant just that.
I did not say which one I thought would out perform the other.
HLG has been a great performer and hopefully like a lot of great performers, will continue performing.
TRA's latest result was "clean" of "one offs" and the quality of earnings was good,and prospects of further growth looks sound.
So it will be interesting to see which one performs better over the next two years.

[Snoopy]

2020 24.4 cps, ( based on mid point of 2020 forecast and current number of shares on issue).
eps 2019 26.3 cps
eps 2018 29.3 cps
eps 2017 25.5 cps
eps 2016 25 cps
eps 2015 32 cps

The other hound can normalise this all he likes and with the greatest respect to Snoopy I don't care...the numbers speak for themselves.


From my perspective the numbers don't speak for themselves, which is the issue. Some on here were very convinced of the ongoing value of property development going forwards. That seemed to be the tone in last years result and one or two on this forum fell for it. I was never convinced, so there is no shock to me that 'property gains' have now been 'normalised out'.

This is the only company that I invest in where I can read the full result presentation in detail and yet understand less than if I had just looked at the headline profit figure, which from experience I don't believe anyway.

For example, p11 in the half year presentation, while the six month results are presented in March and September each year, the market share is shown in 'three month rolling averages' in April and October. Thinking 'on the fly', a three month average taken in October is centered on September so maybe this graphical representation of market share is right. But there is no explanation of this point on the graph.

The July 2018 market share is shown at 6% while the July 2019 market share looks to be 6%. So market share growth is very much dependent on where you set your reference points Yet the overall market is down 2.5% ( I think we are talking about unit sales not dollars but I am not sure and it is not clarified- more obfuscation).

On page 26 we learn

"Unit sales of owned stock up 6%, however margin per unit down 11%, locally sourced margins are up but import margins continue to track down due to supply chain costs and adverse currency movements."

The above sentence starts talking about locally owned stock sales being up, then goes on to say that margin per unit is down, but also that locally sourced margins are up. This implies that the 'margin per unit being down' referred to in the middle of the sentence covers local and imported cars. And that implies the margin per unit for imported cars is down a lot more than 11%. But how much more we don't know because we don't know what proportion of cars sold are imported and what are local. Why are Turners making a big deal on this distinction between imports and local stocks anyway? The general gist of the comment is that Turners will concentrate more and more on locally sourced sales to get around their import issues. But why can't other dealers do the same thing?

From the results announcement:
"Further consolidation is expected in the used car market as a result of the upcoming regulatory changes (mandatory Electronic Stability Control on all imported vehicles) which will provide further opportunity to build Turners’ retail market share."

Why can't other dealers start buying more cars already in the country to get around the new ESC rules restricting stock?

We learn that Inventory value managed down in Auto retail with focus on faster turn (presentation page 21). But then we learn that Turners are moving to open some very large retail sites 8,000m2 to 10,000m2 which will presumably require a lot more stock on the ground (presentation p14). So Turners have reported the benefits of reduced stock but are planning to have a lot more stock. The overall narrative doesn't quite gel to me.

Maybe I'll just have to start reading the headlines only like most investors!

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

I admire the work you do on the deep dive with TRA's results mate but to be honest sometimes I wonder if you don't wear your nose out trying to sniff out all the multiple idiosyncratic methodologies they have used over the years to massage profit one way or another. I recall vividly that you didn't believe the myth that property profits were an integrated part of their business and I don't either.

Sometimes it simply pays to zoom out and look at the helicopter view and with eps declining from 32 cps to a forecast of 24.4 cps six years later and ponder whether you're time is better spent sniffing elsewhere...

Used vehicles have been a tough gig for as far back as I can ever remember and in more recent times when the public has the significant benefit of more transparent pricing through Trade Me you have to wonder if its simply going to get even more competitive as time goes on...

[Joshuatree]

What I meant by this is ;
Will be interesting seeing which share performs better over the next two years.?
I meant just that.
I did not say which one I thought would out perform the other.
HLG has been a great performer and hopefully like a lot of great performers, will continue performing.
TRA's latest result was "clean" of "one offs" and the quality of earnings was good,and prospects of further growth looks sound.
So it will be interesting to see which one performs better over the next two years.

Both paying great divs.
Global new car sales down 4% this year
Bit of a down cycle to see through
mtfhc (https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/82F29183A6D948AA8C957068E5323EF6/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/mtfhc?issuercode=mtf&number=345179&ispdf=false) maybe of int.

[peat]

I've normalised my position (slightly less ) so as to prevent it giving me too much pain.. There simply isn't enough good results to stay plus-size.
Overall only slightly out of pocket so far, due to good divvy's but a bit of a opportunity cost as always.
Still interested in their medium and long term performance but obviously their immediate future is pretty average.

[percy]

Chart looks good.?

[couta1]

Chart looks good.? Yep looks primed for a breakout.

[winner69]

Yep looks primed for a breakout.

Yep, 3 bucks not far off

TRA should win that race with HLG from here

[trader_jackson]

Yep, 3 bucks not far off

TRA should win that race with HLG from here

Neither of them stand a chance against AFT in the long term they say.

[Joshuatree]

Thats a bit random "they". :) Irrelevant to this holder and income enjoyer.

[percy]

Neither of them stand a chance against AFT in the long term they say.

Classic...I love it.............lol.

[sb9]

Chart looks good.?

Sure does looks very healthy now. Seems as though the seller who was feeding the sell side before has eased up for now....

[percy]

Looks to me the seller has seen sense and stopped,or has gone.?

[golden city]

A break out is imminent

[BlackPeter]

A break out is imminent

based on?

Might well turn into one of these nasty double top reversals ...

Only time will tell ...

[winner69]

based on?

Might well turn into one of these nasty double top reversals ...

Only time will tell ...

Perfect inverse bell curve pattern still in play

Looks like 395 is on cards next year

[BlackPeter]

Perfect inverse bell curve pattern still in play

Looks like 395 is on cards next year

Inverse? Maybe, but certainly neither perfect nor bell ...

Pulling legs? ... again?

[Beagle]

Perfect inverse bell curve pattern still in play

Looks like 395 is on cards next year

Or we might get an abandoned baby formation and it crashes to $2 lol.

[percy]

Perfect inverse bell curve pattern still in play

Looks like 395 is on cards next year

Agreed.
Only question is whether the share price hits $3.95 early or mid year,after their full year result late May..
And if it is not next year it will be the following year.?..lol.

ps.Next divie [fully imputed] payable 30th January will clear the Christmas bank card bill.[with a nice bit left over].
NPH divie will pay for the ham,turkey and wine.

pps.The Trust I am a trustee of brought more this morning at $2.68.

[RTM]

I reckon the SP will plateau 270-275. Will need some good results to go past that, that will take time.

Getting pretty close.

[percy]

Getting pretty close.

Chart shows the present uptrend is strong,with the next resistance level at $2.92,so will be interesting to see whether the share price does plateau at $2.70-$2.75, or goes straight to $2.92.[on its way to higher levels over $3.00].

[ratkin]

I am off to turners today to look for an old banger.

Not to drive but to park in front of my place to stop the neighbour parking his massive great camper van there. Should be plenty of suitable vehicles at turners

[CD_CHCH]

Needs to get back above $3.00 again for me to break even but unfortunately I was too late getting a buy order in a month or so back to pick up more in the $2.40s.

He who hesitates etc....

[RTM]

Chart shows the present uptrend is strong,with the next resistance level at $2.92,so will be interesting to see whether the share price does plateau at $2.70-$2.75, or goes straight to $2.92.[on its way to higher levels over $3.00].

Well....I'm really hoping you are right. I don't mind being wrong at all.
Average buy...302. Had to many already to buy more when they were down. :t_down:

[sb9]

Chart shows the present uptrend is strong,with the next resistance level at $2.92,so will be interesting to see whether the share price does plateau at $2.70-$2.75, or goes straight to $2.92.[on its way to higher levels over $3.00].

Well, a decent parcel of 60k block crossed at 2.70 a piece. That should augur well for further uptrend close to the magic 3.00 mark.

[golden city]

Here we go a breakout glad loading up at 2.45

[winner69]

Here we go a breakout glad loading up at 2.45

Yes indeed

The inverse bell-curve pattern is playing out perfectly. Expect 4 bucks some time next year

Always good topping up around 216 odd when many threw in the towel and capitulated

[percy]

Yes indeed

The inverse bell-curve pattern is playing out perfectly. Expect 4 bucks some time next year

Always good topping up around 216 odd when many threw in the towel and capitulated

They certainly made a lot of ugly noise, and made toxic posts here when they capitulated.

[winner69]

They certainly made a lot of ugly noise, and made toxic posts here when they capitulated.

We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.

Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party

[Beagle]

We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.

Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party

Given all the ramping people deserve to read a cautionary counter opinion seeing as this has been such an appalling performer over the years...
Let's not pretend this slight recovery is on fundmental's… a reality check for you
eps forecast 2020 24.4 cps, ( based on mid point of 2020 forecast and current number of shares on issue).
eps 2019 26.3 cps
eps 2018 29.3 cps
eps 2017 25.5 cps
eps 2016 25 cps
eps 2015 32 cps

On a fundamental basis its starting to look a little expensive now compared to Colonial Motors which has been a vastly better performer over the long run.
PE of about 11 is normal for Colonial and especially this no growth eps one...anything meaningfully more than that is probably irrational exuberance and writing yourself into a position of losing even more money on this.

I see fair value at slightly less than the current share price.

[percy]

On a fundamental basis its starting to look a little expensive now compared to Colonial Motors which has been a vastly better performer over the long run.

Agree CMO is starting to look a "has been"...............................
Great time to sell, and recycle your funds into TRA...................lol.

[winner69]

There’s a lot more to ‘fundamentals’ per se then financial performance

Strategy, fundamentals and TA all going for Turners at the moment.

[Beagle]

Agree CMO is starting to look a "has been"...............................
Great time to sell, and recycle your funds into TRA...................lol.

10891 3 year competitive chart, speaks for itself. A very long journey ahead for TRA just to get back to the share price it was 3 years ago.

10893 See for yourself how this company which has been "promoted" on an extraordinarily regular basis over the years has performed over the last 3 years v the NZX50

I leave others to judge if the one who's "cried wolf" 101 times might be right this time... Keep in mind the official eps forecast of only 24.4 cps, (at mid point) for FY20 is the company's own official forecast of current trading conditions and second half profit is forecast to be lower than 1H FY20.

Take care this summer to avoid irrational excesses...

[percy]

There’s a lot more to ‘fundamentals’ per se then financial performance

Strategy, fundamentals and TA all going for Turners at the moment.

Agreed.
"Well positioned."

[Snow Leopard]

We wil look back when the inverse bell-curve pattern has played out and the share price is over 4 bucks that Turners was a great example of where strategy, fundamentals and TA aligned to double your money.

Not quite halfway there so not too late to join the party

I would like to point out that in less than a month inverse bell curves will be 'so last year'.

And remember you read it here first.

[golden city]

3 dollar soon looks like

[sb9]

3 dollar soon looks like

Sure seem to be heading that way, some big fund is in accumulation mode by the looks.

[GTM 3442]

Sure seem to be heading that way, some big fund is in accumulation mode by the looks.

Or CMO preparing for a hostile takeover?

[blackcap]

Or CMO preparing for a hostile takeover?

I don't think it is CMO. I know the chair of CMO and that is not their MO. The TRA question (merger/takeover) was actually asked at their AGM 3 years ago and was put to bed quick smartly. The two business models are totally different as well. (not that that matters). But can't see it happening. CMO do not have the warchest to be able to purchase TRA and as its a reasonably closely held family company (60+ shares are held by family interests) I do not see them doing a call on capital to fund an acquisition. Nor do I see them doing an issue of CMO shares to TRA holders as that will water down the family's interest. But interesting speculation no doubt.

[blackcap]

Salt doing a bit of selling.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/345844/313839.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Salt doing a bit of selling.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/345844/313839.pdf

... and it looks like there are plenty more to sell where these came from ...

800 k down and 7 million more to sell.

[Balance]

... and it looks like there are plenty more to sell where these came from ...

800 k down and 7 million more to sell.

I think it’s called ‘feed the ducks when they are quaking’?

Milford sold down and now it’s Salt.

Milford did not sell well.

[percy]

Salt doing a bit of selling.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/345844/313839.pdf

Average buy price.. $2.709.
Average sale price...$2.627.
Well at least they received good dividends which would have more than offset their trading losses.

ps.
I guess someone has brought these shares.?

[sb9]

Inching close to that magical $3 mark....

[golden city]

Love it up 30% for me plus nice dividends

[percy]

Inching close to that magical $3 mark....

Yes looking strong at over $2.80,[currently trading at $2.85],and cum a fully imputed 4 cent divie,ex 17 January and payable on 30th January.
Well done to those who were savvy [or brave enough] to buy under $2.20.