TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[sb9]

Yes looking strong at over $2.80,[currently trading at $2.85],and cum a fully imputed 4 cent divie,ex 17 January and payable on 30th January.
Well done to those who were savvy [or brave enough] to buy under $2.20.

Yes, i did double down on my holdings at 2.25 after Director Martin bought 500k shares around that price. With dividends and capital gains I'm up more than 25% and could be more this year.

[Snow Leopard]

Yes looking strong at over $2.80,[currently trading at $2.85],and cum a fully imputed 4 cent divie,ex 17 January and payable on 30th January.
Well done to those who were savvy [or brave enough] to buy under $2.20.


Infallible those inverse bell curves :D

[winner69]

Infallible those inverse bell curves :D

Heading to 4 bucks later this year as the inverse bell curve pattern unfolds

Pity one or two can’t see these patterns

[Ggcc]

All that negative sentiment has stopped.............. Why has Percy been so correct for so long???

[winner69]

All that negative sentiment has stopped.............. Why has Percy been so correct for so long???


..it’s called research and conviction

And the market being very happy at the moment helps

[SCOTTY]

All that negative sentiment has stopped.............. Why has Percy been so correct for so long???
Percy does his own research and and makes his own decisions. He is not influenced by negativity -:)

[Ggcc]

..it’s called research and conviction

And the market being very happy at the moment helps
So you are saying he has been correct with his research and conviction. Of course I am invested

[peat]

Why has Percy been so correct for so long???

strictly speaking he's only been right half the time.

[percy]

Spent far too much time answering groundless negative posts.

[peat]

Percey, I've been amazed at the way you have occasionally lobbed an underarm right out of the field

[winner69]

Wellington site seems to be going gangbusters

Plenty of people and turnover of cars looks pretty high ...like looked like a lot of different cars on the site from what there was just before Christmas

[winner69]

Carly all go soon

As they say “It is better to take many small steps in the right direction than to make a great leap forward only to stumble backward.”

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/347148/315301.pdf

[Brain]

Carly has got to be an exceptionally good fit for Turners. I think board and management are beginning to “hit their straps”.

[sb9]

Carly has got to be an exceptionally good fit for Turners. I think board and management are beginning to “hit their straps”.

Yes they does seem to be finally tracking in right direction.

And today is the last day to buy in to be eligible to get 4c divvy.

[golden city]

Love it going to hit 3 soon

[oldtech]

Tracking in the right direction for several months, a fully imputed dividend of 17 cents and a yield of 8.2% (based on dividends from April 2019 - January 2020 and current SP of $2.88) - heck I might just put this back on my watchlist.

I will be interested to see how Carly pans out. From my understanding it's being going for nine months in Australia, but I can't seem to find any figures on how successful it is there.

[trader_jackson]

I sold out of my TRA holding at $2.90 ending my relatively short involvement as a shareholder (former bondholder) in TRA - while the dividends are great and I came out with a pretty small capital gain, at this price (around $3) I see it 'pretty fully valued' (for now) with not much room to grow capital gain wise or dividend wise for the immediate period.

Good luck to all holders.

(note: despite my name, I am not actually a trader lol so I don't sell out often)

[BlackPeter]

Carly release says “subscription concept still new” but seems a lot like car rental which a pretty stodgy well trodden business with very low barriers to entry and lots of low cost operators. Hard to see a high return on equity being achieved/sustained.

If it quacks like a duck and looks like a duck .... it clearly is car rental - just focusing on the time frame between short term rental (with plenty of competition) and long term car lease (with plenty of competition).

Expect significant setup cost if they want to be attractive (client interface, insurance interface, mechanical staff to keep the cars on the road) - and yes, margin squeeze from above competition to be expected.

As well - Turners normal clientele unlikely to go for the high end cars - i.e. just another car rental company renting out cheap old bangers. Just wondering who will insure these cars? If insurance is independent of the drivers history (as usual with rental cars), than it will be too expensive for people with a good driving record but people with poor driving record will be flocking in. Hope for S/H that it is not Turners providing the cover.

I think TJ timed his exit well ;);

[peetter]

I think you underestimate the subscription model appeal to younger generations.

As for insurance, it's included in the price, same as maintenance, road side assistance and certain amount of "free" kilometers.

So you get a car for $115/$133/$147(not NZ prices) a week and don't have to do anything. https://www.carly.co/subscription-plans/


This is not something I'd go for, but I can see a big market for this among younger generation.

[peetter]

Expect significant setup cost if they want to be attractive (client interface, insurance interface, mechanical staff to keep the cars on the road) - and yes, margin squeeze from above competition to be expected.

I'd say almost zero setup cost will be necessary, as they actually work with Carly who have everything setup. All they'll need for NZ is data entry.

[oldtech]

I'd say almost zero setup cost will be necessary, as they actually work with Carly who have everything setup. All they'll need for NZ is data entry.

Turners is licensing the concept from ASX-listed Collaborate (so I wonder how much the licensing costs??), a company it bought a 12 per cent stake in for $1 million in July last year (so you could argue that there's a $1 million setup fee straight off).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347148
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336956

[Beagle]

I think you underestimate the subscription model appeal to younger generations.

As for insurance, it's included in the price, same as maintenance, road side assistance and certain amount of "free" kilometers.

So you get a car for $115/$133/$147(not NZ prices) a week and don't have to do anything. https://www.carly.co/subscription-plans/


This is not something I'd go for, but I can see a big market for this among younger generation.

Agree it will mainly appeal to younger generation who don't want commitments. "I'm Carly, come use me" kind of has that "Tinder" feel about it to me.
Don't imagine for one second you're going to get a supermodel for that price though....pretty basic 5 year old car for the lead-in price suggested https://subscription.carly.co/belmore-nsw/2015-holden-Barina-14641

Quite a bit more for a decent car https://subscription.carly.co/homebush-nsw/2018-holden-Commodore-14936

[peetter]

Turners is licensing the concept from ASX-listed Collaborate (so I wonder how much the licensing costs??), a company it bought a 12 per cent stake in for $1 million in July last year (so you could argue that there's a $1 million setup fee straight off).

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/347148
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/336956

You're right. But the licensing will provide them with the web interface. Arguably paying license is similar to working together sharing profit. On top of that they are paying licensing fee to a company that they have 12% stake in.

I think this is a very solid business model that could be used both by private users and businesses. I can imagine this as a great solution for Expats for example. Also looking at the listings in AU, it's not like they give you old banger as somebody mentioned, most of the cars are less than 5 years old.

[BlackPeter]

I think you underestimate the subscription model appeal to younger generations.

As for insurance, it's included in the price, same as maintenance, road side assistance and certain amount of "free" kilometers.

So you get a car for $115/$133/$147(not NZ prices) a week and don't have to do anything. https://www.carly.co/subscription-plans/


This is not something I'd go for, but I can see a big market for this among younger generation.

OK - lets calculate that through. If we take the absolute basic plan for A$115 per week ($6000 per year), then this gives you 1,200 km per month (14,400 km per year). Insurance and on road cost included, I recon petrol is extra. Say the car consumes 8 l / 100 km and you use the 1200 km per month, than you need to buy close to 96 l per month - say $230 pm or roughly $2,800 per year (ignoring the A$).

Make that (including subscription) $9000 per year for 14,400 km. OK - not absolutely unrealistic, but not cheap either ... and given that hardly anybody will manage to exactly drive the km paid for it will be more expensive.

Our (well maintained, but not very new) cars do cost us significantly less to keep on the road (including fuel, RuC, licence, insurance, maintenance, repairs and a sensible devaluation) - make that $5k to $6k per year and car - and we used to drive for this money between 20 and 25 k km per year and car (will be less now, but I don't have yet new numbers).

Not quite sure whether people will queue up to line Turners pockets ...

[mfd]

It's an unfortunate fact that there are plenty of people out there needing or wanting a car but unable to front up 5 grand all in one go, and to hold that much in case of mechanical failure. A subscription might be a useful alternative. Similar to the solar power firms offering to install on your rooftop and keeping most of the profit, as an alternative to those who can't pay for the install themselves. Another case of 'the rich get richer'.

[BlackPeter]

OK - lets calculate that through. If we take the absolute basic plan for A$115 per week ($6000 per year), then this gives you 1,200 km per month (14,400 km per year). Insurance and on road cost included, I recon petrol is extra. Say the car consumes 8 l / 100 km and you use the 1200 km per month, than you need to buy close to 96 l per month - say $230 pm or roughly $2,800 per year (ignoring the A$).

Make that (including subscription) $9000 per year for 14,400 km. OK - not absolutely unrealistic, but not cheap either ... and given that hardly anybody will manage to exactly drive the km paid for it will be more expensive.

Our (well maintained, but not very new) cars do cost us significantly less to keep on the road (including fuel, RuC, licence, insurance, maintenance, repairs and a sensible devaluation) - make that $5k to $6k per year and car - and we used to drive for this money between 20 and 25 k km per year and car (will be less now, but I don't have yet new numbers).

Not quite sure whether people will queue up to line Turners pockets ...

Ah, and this was stupid me assuming you could get a car for the advertised basic price ($115 per week). Just used the website, pretended to look for a car in Sydney and noticed that there are exactly zero cars for $115 per week available. The cheapest was a 2015 Holden Barrina for $133 per week. Any halfway decent car sets you on the cheapest plan (1200 km per month) back by roughly $200 to $250 per week - Jeez that's $12 k per year only to put the car into your garage (or driveway) and you have not even bought a drop of petrol .... Do your own sums, but if you add fuel we talk even under ideal circumstances more than $1 per km for the client. Under less ideal circumstances it will be much dearer.

If this is Turners next big thing and if it works (which I doubt), then there must be a lot of people around who can't do their numbers and have plenty of money to throw away ...

[Beagle]

Ah, and this was stupid me assuming you could get a car for the advertised basic price ($115 per week). Just used the website, pretended to look for a car in Sydney and noticed that there are exactly zero cars for $115 per week available. The cheapest was a 2015 Holden Barrina for $133 per week. Any halfway decent car sets you on the cheapest plan (1200 km per month) back by roughly $200 to $250 per week - Jeez that's $12 k per year only to put the car into your garage (or driveway) and you have not even bought a drop of petrol .... Do your own sums, but if you add fuel we talk even under ideal circumstances more than $1 per km for the client. Under less ideal circumstances it will be much dearer.

If this is Turners next big thing and if it works (which I doubt), then there must be a lot of people around who can't do their numbers and have plenty of money to throw away ...

Like I said earlier, this will appeal to the "Tinder" generation who don't want any commitments. Its a completely different way of thinking than you and I can relate too.

[winner69]

Turners supplying 200 cars to start with

I recall chatting to Rod Drury years ago ...and he was over the moon as they had just signed up their 100th subscriber

One needs to have a vision

[peetter]

Ah, and this was stupid me assuming you could get a car for the advertised basic price ($115 per week). Just used the website, pretended to look for a car in Sydney and noticed that there are exactly zero cars for $115 per week available. The cheapest was a 2015 Holden Barrina for $133 per week. Any halfway decent car sets you on the cheapest plan (1200 km per month) back by roughly $200 to $250 per week - Jeez that's $12 k per year only to put the car into your garage (or driveway) and you have not even bought a drop of petrol .... Do your own sums, but if you add fuel we talk even under ideal circumstances more than $1 per km for the client. Under less ideal circumstances it will be much dearer.

If this is Turners next big thing and if it works (which I doubt), then there must be a lot of people around who can't do their numbers and have plenty of money to throw away ...


I admit I went off the basic advertised price. But I still think the potential is there. Beagle is right about the new generation. No commitment approach with complete lack of financial education could make this a big hit.


Also this being a subscription, it seems good for people who just need a car for couple of months. Another point is an image thing, as you apparently can exchange the cars every month.

[winner69]

K
I must admit this rebranding stodgy old "renting" to brave new world "subscription" is pretty fabulous. Perhaps if Eaqub had called Generation Subscription instead of Generation Rent younger people would be feeling better about housing costs.

I guess TRA may have an advantage in buying cheap cars at rock bottom price to use in this operation and the marginal costs of service may not be that high given they already have people and branches around NZ. However, marginal cost view of the world often leads to marginal businesses that become the tail that wags the dog.

Highlighted bits — So true Mogul

[peat]

For me there is no point in slaving over the commerial effectiveness of this new arm to Turners business.
As managers of the business they must have some faith in it, and I allow them to enter that business and monitor its success (without over committing) and allocate resource appropriately, and provide shareholders with some view of how that is progressing over time.
It will become part of the evluation that we apply to management during the course of our decision making to invest or not. Based on the last year or two of performance , a short while ago I reduced my oversize holding as there had not been enough success , or clarity of vision , to justify that larger position. What I still have is now at 7% of my shrinking share portfolio though. So I remain interested and hopeful they know what they're doing. (Not that hope is a strategy)
10953
TRA has significantly underperformed both the NZ50 and its vaguely comparable sector buddy CMO although some recovery has recently taken place. Is this just a return to mean though? I think that based on the above things I've said it is unlikely to become an out performer any time soon, and should this price recovery continue I will probably exit completely.

[SCOTTY]

I sold out of my TRA holding at $2.90 ending my relatively short involvement as a shareholder (former bondholder) in TRA - while the dividends are great and I came out with a pretty small capital gain, at this price (around $3) I see it 'pretty fully valued' (for now) with not much room to grow capital gain wise or dividend wise for the immediate period.

Good luck to all holders.

(note: despite my name, I am not actually a trader lol so I don't sell out often)

I do not understand how TRA can be fully priced on an 8% gross yield (ex divi) when you would be very lucky to get 3% with a bank deposit. In my opinion this should be the valuation focus for all yield stocks. In this case there is plenty of room for share price growth unless you don’t believe that the dividend can be maintained?

[Beagle]

I must admit this rebranding stodgy old "renting" to brave new world "subscription" is pretty fabulous. Perhaps if Eaqub had called Generation Subscription instead of Generation Rent younger people would be feeling better about housing costs.

I guess TRA may have an advantage in buying cheap cars at rock bottom price to use in this operation and the marginal costs of service may not be that high given they already have people and branches around NZ. However, marginal cost view of the world often leads to marginal businesses that become the tail that wags the dog.

Agree. Over the years this company has consistently taken an "experimental" approach with a lot of what it does, multiple reviews, new start up's, anyone remember Cartopia which was supposed to be the all new frontier with car sales ? Multiple changes to the eligibility criteria for new customers wanting vehicle finance, (4 changes to this in 2018 were reported when I was a shareholder).
Structural reviews, lets sell off this division or that or the other...it just goes on and on and on and on.

The reality, that they never talk about is that used cars has always, and will always be an extremely competitive low margin business with very low barriers to entry and that Trade Me, (who now provide links for finance), is increasingly undermining the traditional car sales model. So too are private importers who can import and resell up to 6 vehicles per year from home with no overheads and no car sales compliance costs.

TRA has massively underperformed the NZX50 in recent years and my expectation is that they will continue to do so. This is just another exercise in seeing if they can squeeze a tiny extra drop of juice out of their existing business model and as you suggest, there is the real risk they lose focus and the tail wags the dog.

I am happy to continue to let them continue their experiments with other people's money.

[percy]

http://www.catsg.org/typo3temp/pics/4cb2c94e64.jpg

Sunda Clouded Leopard (found in Borneo with some difficulty) and Snow Leopard (not found in Borneo at all)

https://www.gannett-cdn.com/presto/2019/03/04/PLSJ/5bd8e4b8-5827-4d07-822b-64bdfab03cd4-Little_Girl_1.jpg?width=540&height=&fit=bounds&auto=webp

Whilst I will make no mention of the tedious, repetitive drivel that some hound is soiling this thread with, I will say that I am not surprised that those who are the most emotionally driven in their investment decisions seem to be the ones who stress how rational they are.

The pointless picking of a particular historical time frame that suits their argument for not being invested now could lead to someone pointing out that those who bought Air New Zealand 20 years ago are still in the red, even if they reinvested all their dividends, and thus no rational person would waste their breath on them.

Investing is all about where you see a company going in the future and the balance of probabilities that you will be in profit in your chosen time-frame.

At the moment we have a TRA uptrend that is seven months old and long may it last.

Disc: Hold TRA as part of a diversified portfolio of NZX shares, which is part of a diversified portfolio of assets.

I am still holding too.

ps.The quarterly fully imputed divie on 30th is timely.Will cover my excessive festive season spending.Went at bit overboard.!..lol

[SCOTTY]

“Tedious repetitive drivel” - I like that :)

Yes, I’m a happy holder, well into the black and will probably top up when funds permit.

Cheers and more beers.

[Snow Leopard]

I am still holding too.

ps.The quarterly fully imputed divie on 30th is timely.Will cover my excessive festive season spending.Went at bit overboard.!..lol

We bought ourselves 14 weeks wandering Europe so my credit cards got a little stressed.
Only got as far as Kuala Lumpur so far & we do need the French Train Drivers to stop striking by Feb , but otherwise TRA is working well :).

[percy]

We bought ourselves 14 weeks wandering Europe so my credit cards got a little stressed.
Only got as far as Kuala Lumpur so far & we do need the French Train Drivers to stop striking by Feb , but otherwise TRA is working well :).

Sounds like January's divie is spent.
You will be looking forward to April's divie.!!
In the meantime HGH will help out in March.
And hopefully PGW's minimum 8 cps is forthcoming.

PS.I am sure a lot of us would enjoy some of your travel news.

[DarkHorse]

"Carly"'s a pretty dull name! I would've gone for a popular Japanese girl's name - Kazumi :t_up:

[percy]

"Carly"'s a pretty dull name! I would've gone for a popular Japanese girl's name - Kazumi :t_up:

Me too................................lol.

[BlackPeter]

"Carly"'s a pretty dull name! I would've gone for a popular Japanese girl's name - Kazumi :t_up:

Just lets hope for Shareholders that it doesn't turn into "Kamikaze".

[percy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/sport/motorsport/118897647/liam-lawson-starts-toyota-racing-series-title-defence-with-victory-at-cromwell

[winner69]

WTF - Turners share price down about 4% since the announcement about Carly

[percy]

Great timing.
Turners' dividend goes into my bank tomorrow,and my Bankcard automatic payment goes out tomorrow ..

[sb9]

Great timing.
Turners' dividend goes into my bank tomorrow,and my Bankcard automatic payment goes out tomorrow ..

Another juicy quarterly divvy just hit the bank a/c.

[percy]

Another juicy quarterly divvy just hit the bank a/c.

Mine too.
Bet the Bankcard payment going out.
Handy having the TRA divie paying for our Christmas excess.!..lol.

[stoploss]

WTF - Turners share price down about 4% since the announcement about Carly

CL8 have gone from 1.3/1.4 to 1.7/1.8 :)

[winner69]

No doubt Turner’s management (and Baker) had an enjoyable and fun weekend at the races

Liam did OK ...even though the #1 car didn’t win

[Beagle]

I sold out of my TRA holding at $2.90 ending my relatively short involvement as a shareholder (former bondholder) in TRA - while the dividends are great and I came out with a pretty small capital gain, at this price (around $3) I see it 'pretty fully valued' (for now) with not much room to grow capital gain wise or dividend wise for the immediate period.

Good luck to all holders.

(note: despite my name, I am not actually a trader lol so I don't sell out often)
^^ Posted 17 January 2020.
Well done, looks like you picked the top off this latest bout of exuberance. Now broken down through the 100 day MA and the many years of woeful underperformance (relative to the NZX50) continues.

[percy]

I would expect a great number of people will be concerned about their jobs with the threat of The Corona Virus.
May stop them looking to upgrade their car using finance.Instead of buying a $25,000 used car, they will settle for a $10,000 one.In which case Turners will do OK.
Perhaps with market uncertainty, Turners may have timed their entry into The Carly subscription model perfectly.

[Arthur]

^^ Posted 17 January 2020.
Well done, looks like you picked the top off this latest bout of exuberance. Now broken down through the 100 day MA and the many years of woeful underperformance (relative to the NZX50) continues.

I'd avoid these at auction if I were you
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-45191874 Beagle

[forest]

Decided this afternoon to have a look at TRA interim report covering the 6 months to the end of 30 Sep 2019.

However I was unable to find this on the TRA website. Found a ph no to contact them, no luck with that either nobody answering phones at TRA.
Normally interim and full year reports are freely available online 3 months after the period of reporting, why is TRA different???

[greater fool]

Try this:
https://m.nzx.com/announcements/344980

[forest]

Try this:
https://m.nzx.com/announcements/344980

I saw that announcement, found it confusing and therefore like to read the interim report. I was of the understanding that it is an requirement of public companies to make them available.

TRA got an investors section on their website, the latest interim report is missing. Why ??? Phoned them and left message, no reply. Mmn, does not help with investors or potential investors confidence in this company.

[percy]

For TRA's interim go to NZX.com and put in TRA and then go to announcements,2019 27tNov.
or www.stocknessmonster.com TRA,then on right hand side,news,2019 then 27th Nov.


or try this link
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344980

[forest]

For TRA's interim go to NZX.com and put in TRA and then go to announcements,2019 27tNov.
or www.stocknessmonster.com TRA,then on right hand side,news,2019 then 27th Nov.


or try this link
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/344980

Your right Percy and Greater Fool, the info is there in the second attachment. Very well hidden.

[forest]

Just had a call back from TRA, interim report will be put on their website soon.

[Snoopy]

Turners Automotive Group (TNR/TRA)FY2015FY2016FY2017
FY2018FY2019


No. Shares on Issue EOFY (TNR/TRA) (*)63.077m63.432m74.524m84.803m86.555m (est)


Normalised Earnings Per Share {A}13.6c24.2c21.8c22.5c20.1c (est)


Actual Dividend Paid (cps) {B} (**)5c + 4c6c + 6c7c + 3c +3c4c + 4.5c +3c +3c
4.5c + 5c +4c +4c


Normalised Earnings Retained {A}-(B) (cps)4.6c12.2c8.8c8.0c2.6c (est)




(*) The number of TNR shares on issue at the end of the financial year has been adjusted retrospectively for the 23rd March 2016 10:1 share consolidation. To see how the number of TRA shares on issue was derived for FY2015, refer to my post 1413 "Buffett Test 2: Increasing 'eps' Trend (FY2016 perspective): Preamble Part 2.

(**) The actual dividends paid by TNR/TRA over FY2015 and FY2016 were unimputed. This was because of prior losses incurred under the DPC/TNR/TRA structure. However, in my modelling the TUA group was already combined with DPC/TNR/TRA. Previous year TUA profits wiped out those previous year equivalent DPC/TNR/TRA losses. Under this modelled scenario, those FY2015 and FY2016 dividends would have been fully imputed. That's because looking at the combined picture, those prior offsetting DPC/TNR/TRA losses never happened.

From the above table the 'five year average' dividend payout was:

(9c + 12c + 13c +14.5c + 17.5c)/ 5 = 13.20c (net)

Average Gross Dividend Yield (based on a 28% tax rate) is therefore:

13.20 / (1-0.28) = 18.33c

Using a capitalized value gross interest rate of 7.5% (see thread An Investment Story - Geneva/Turners/Heartland, post 40), this translates to a fair value share price of:

18.33c/ 0.075 = $2.44

Last year, I stated that I no longer believed this valuation method provided a satisfactory technique for valuing Turners Automotive Group. This was because the retained earnings of TRA are employed in growing the business, and this valuation method ignores that contribution.

With the share price today trading some 10% below this equivalent $2.44 valuation figure -a figure based only on historical dividend payments-, one could interpret this to mean that the 'retained earnings' part of the profit generated has been squandered and for share valuation purposes should be considered worthless.


I managed to top up today. Not at the low closing price of $2.20, but I bought enough shares to reduce my average holding cost price to $2.64. With my TRA investment, I am buying a 'dividend yield' as calculated above. Buying at any price that will produce a gross yield of greater than 7.5% makes me happy, but good on those who late in the day got an even better deal than I did. I am well aware that in times of uncertainty, splashing out big on a large capital purchase (like a car) is something that can be delayed. But stepping back, and looking at the big picture, I can see some compelling tail winds that makes investing in TRA at 'bargain prices' today, a good idea.

1/ The NZ vehicle fleet is still aging and the need for more replacement vehicles in the medium term has not gone away.
2/ The depreciating currency means that second hand motor vehicles will increase in price in the medium term. Putting off that purchase is likely to have a cost. ( => downturn in vehicle sales in the short term not as great as expected).
3/ The reduction in the price of fuel at the pump from the 25% 'oil price crash', means that less fuel efficient second hand cars are likely to become more attractive 'value wise' compared to a super fuel efficient new car, even one on attractive payment terms.
4/ The push for more electric cars will have to come via the used market. A new electric car is simply too expensive for the average bloke/blokess. Turners seem ideally placed to step in here.
5/ There is a dividend due next month.
6/ At less than $2.44, we are only paying for the income, so any growth we shareholders get is 'for free'.
7/ High company debt levels are mitigated by interest rates grinding even lower.

I don't know how Carly shared ownership of vehicles will work out. I still think the insurance profits are opaque, although that risk is offset for me by buying my new TRA shares at a discounted price. I may have been able to wait and get my TRA shares even cheaper. But I did save money by not chasing up my 'next' Turner's purchase all the way up to $2.70 in the last TRA rally. And my early in the day purchase price meant I was a little under my yield target purchase price even so. All in all, a most satisfactory day on the market for me, for my Turners holding at least!

SNOOPY

[bull....]

another company which could find itself in serious strife , warned while back on the thread of there debt levels and if sales drop off they are very exposed and what did they do spent money on a buyback lol

[Snoopy]

another company which could find itself in serious strife , warned while back on the thread of there debt levels and if sales drop off they are very exposed and what did they do spent money on a buyback lol


Any company that spent money on a buyback over the last couple of years will look silly now. And yes, I get your point about debt levels. But Turners have the ability to get cash quickly by selling stock if needed. It won't do much for profitability if they have to do this, but it will get them out of trouble. Also with Adrian Orr lowering interest rates, this will take the pressure off companies like Turners that operate with significant debt. Aside from al this, the big picture story remains the same. NZ's car fleet is ageing and there is no company better placed than Turners to update it (except perhaps Toyota NZ, and there is room for two).

There are other tailwinds here that you may not fully appreciate Bull. NZers may not be able to take themselves away on an overseas holiday. But they can spend their holiday money on updating their car. Perhaps time to trade in that old 'Toyota Corona' and get this 'Corona' thing out of their system for good. Food for thought?

SNOOPY

[bull....]

Any company that spent money on a buyback over the last couple of years will look silly now. And yes, I get your point about debt levels. But Turners have the ability to get cash quickly by selling stock if needed. It won't do much for profitability if they have to do this, but it will get them out of trouble. Also with Adrian Orr lowering interest rates, this will take the pressure off companies like Turners that operate with significant debt. Aside from al this, the big picture story remains the same. NZ's car fleet is ageing and there is no company better placed than Turners to update it (except perhaps Toyota NZ, and there is room for two).

There are other tailwinds here that you may not fully appreciate Bull. NZers may not be able to take themselves away on an overseas holiday. But they can spend their holiday money on updating their car. Perhaps time to trade in that old 'Toyota Corona' and get this 'Corona' thing out of their system for good. Food for thought?

SNOOPY

i dont know off the top of my head how used car sales go in a deep recession ? as bnz are saying but would help to know to give an indication of how turners may fare.

but they would need sales to stay relatively high to service the debt

[blackcap]

i dont know off the top of my head how used car sales go in a deep recession ? as bnz are saying but would help to know to give an indication of how turners may fare.

but they would need sales to stay relatively high to service the debt

I would be more worried about the new car salespeople than the used car salespeople in a recession.

[Beagle]

Finance companies do very poorly in a recession as the tens of thousands of newly unemployed workers can't pay their bills. Expect an impact on Oxford Finance.
Most people will stick with their existing vehicle BUT Turners sells lower value vehicles so there will always be demand as people who come up against end of life issues with their existing vehicle have to buy a replacement.

[Jaa]

Turners also still have their rescission hedge, the credit management company EC Credit. Increased earnings here will help offset falls elsewhere as well as be useful in chasing bad debts.

Sell off looks over done to me.

[Snoopy]

Turners also still have their rescission hedge, the credit management company EC Credit. Increased earnings here will help offset falls elsewhere as well as be useful in chasing bad debts.

Sell off looks over done to me.


This could be an opportunity to sell EC Credit, as COVID -19 highlights the value of a business that does well in bad times. Todd Turner has made it known that EC Credit is 'on the block', and this could be a path to company debt reduction. Personally I would prefer that EC Credit is retained, but Todd does seem determined to sell.

SNOOPY

[percy]

Most people need a car to get to work or to find work.
Former CFO at HGH, told me people paid their vehicle payments before their mortgage.
Firms and leasing firms making staff redundant will pass on their company cars to Turners to sell.
And yes some annual overseas holiday money will find its way to Turners.
Launch of Carly subscription model may be very timely.

[kiwidollabill]

Recent Turners buying experience....

Someone pulled out in front of me a month or so back and wrote off our Mitsi Outlander. Insurance went fine, got paid out enough to go car shopping again...
Found the model we wanted on Turners Chch (another Outlander) and called up to arrange a purchase (I'm out of town). Got messed arround for 4 days between the sales guy (who still didnt get me the info I asked for), an online form, a PDF and the finance manager.....

Got annoyed, called up Toyota Chch and bought the model I wanted in less that 2 hours from some very helpful staff.

Be wary of cultures of complacency, it can be hidden when times are bad and decimating when the market turns.

Just my recent experience, DYOR.....

[Ggcc]

Recent Turners buying experience....

Someone pulled out in front of me a month or so back and wrote off our Mitsi Outlander. Insurance went fine, got paid out enough to go car shopping again...
Found the model we wanted on Turners Chch (another Outlander) and called up to arrange a purchase (I'm out of town). Got messed arround for 4 days between the sales guy (who still didnt get me the info I asked for), an online form, a PDF and the finance manager.....

Got annoyed, called up Toyota Chch and bought the model I wanted in less that 2 hours from some very helpful staff.

Be wary of cultures of complacency, it can be hidden when times are bad and decimating when the market turns.

Just my recent experience, DYOR.....
Let the organisation know. Mind you Todd reads this forum so he just found out.

[percy]

Recent Turners buying experience....

Someone pulled out in front of me a month or so back and wrote off our Mitsi Outlander. Insurance went fine, got paid out enough to go car shopping again...
Found the model we wanted on Turners Chch (another Outlander) and called up to arrange a purchase (I'm out of town). Got messed arround for 4 days between the sales guy (who still didnt get me the info I asked for), an online form, a PDF and the finance manager.....

Got annoyed, called up Toyota Chch and bought the model I wanted in less that 2 hours from some very helpful staff.

Be wary of cultures of complacency, it can be hidden when times are bad and decimating when the market turns.

Just my recent experience, DYOR.....

Not what us shareholders want to here.
Thanks for sharing.

[Arthur]

I recently went to look at selling through Turners. I got told to make an appointment and come back at a time that suited Turners. Too hard basket at this stage, but might still happen. They are really pushing "agreed value" at this stage rather than auctions.

[Jay]

Last time I sold thru them same thing Arthur - have to make an appointment then they push "we will give you X$ now" or before auction we have someone interested in paying X$ do you wnat to sell - no went to auction got more than both amounts offered - extra $800 odd after commissions I think it was

[winner69]

No word from Todd Turner since late November about financial performance

Everything must be going tickety boo

Shame share price down about 50% from recent highs

[blackcap]

No word from Todd Turner since late November about financial performance

Everything must be going tickety boo

Shame share price down about 50% from recent highs

Makes a bit of a mockery of the continuous disclosure rules one would think. Or maybe Turners really are not straying outside their guidance. Now that would be a boost.

[bull....]

i am struggling to see how they will pay there debts back if car auctions decline. who wants to buy a car for starters in this environment ( you have to assume there biggest market is lower paid people and they are the ones to be affected the most at the moment) and who wants to be in a crowd of people sweating and yelling and possibly spraying corona spray every where why they bidding for there car

[Ggcc]

i am struggling to see how they will pay there debts back if car auctions decline. who wants to buy a car for starters in this environment ( you have to assume there biggest market is lower paid people and they are the ones to be affected the most at the moment) and who wants to be in a crowd of people sweating and yelling and possibly spraying corona spray every where why they bidding for there car
People generally always buy cars and forget paying their other debts.

[MJordan23]

i am struggling to see how they will pay there debts back if car auctions decline. who wants to buy a car for starters in this environment ( you have to assume there biggest market is lower paid people and they are the ones to be affected the most at the moment) and who wants to be in a crowd of people sweating and yelling and possibly spraying corona spray every where why they bidding for there car

The model has changed from 100% auctions to being c60-70% retail though, and the remaining auctions can be attended online. So a much different proposition than what it was a few years ago

[bull....]

The model has changed from 100% auctions to being c60-70% retail though, and the remaining auctions can be attended online. So a much different proposition than what it was a few years ago

fair point , still the market served is probably more based at the lower end of the income spectrum hence the most affected in this environment.
I think in hindsight not doing the share buyback for the benefit of the largest s/h's would have been better. repaying high levels of debt would have been the best option in hindsight

[peat]

I think in hindsight not doing the share buyback … would have been better.

It quite clear that directors are not necessarily good investors/speculators.

but its not just Turners is it? Share buybacks have been massif. bro.
I was always a bit uneasy about them as a financial engineering tool that seemed to create money from nothing (no one mention Dire Straits) , but they became such a common thing that one got inured to them.
That's what 11 year bull markets do they gradually desensitise you to risk. Of course a company shouldn't buy its own shares until at least it has no debt at all.

[percy]

It quite clear that directors are not necessarily good investors/speculators.

but its not just Turners is it? Share buybacks have been massif. bro.
I was always a bit uneasy about them as a financial engineering tool that seemed to create money from nothing (no one mention Dire Straits) , but they became such a common thing that one got inured to them.
That's what 11 year bull markets do they gradually desensitise you to risk. Of course a company shouldn't buy its own shares until at least it has no debt at all.

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...............................

[peat]

.................................................. .................................................. .................................................. ...............................


you can say it Percy don't be shy :p

[percy]

There is a thread on Share Buy Backs.[Thought there was?]
It is in The Newbie's Corner .
I think that is a better place to discuss them,rather than in this thread.

[kiora]

There is a thread on Share Buy Backs.[Thought there was?]
It is in The Newbie's Corner .
I think that is a better place to discuss them,rather than in this thread.

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?11535-Share-buy-backs

[bull....]

turners caryards having to close down in level 4 lockdown? , debt wont be serviced in that case . please tell me im wrong

[blackcap]

turners caryards having to close down in level 4 lockdown? , debt wont be serviced in that case . please tell me im wrong

They will transition to virtual car yards. Some hope yet. And the level 4 will not be indefinite. May be a month only. I am sure Turners can cover a month of debt servicing :)

[bull....]

They will transition to virtual car yards. Some hope yet. And the level 4 will not be indefinite. May be a month only. I am sure Turners can cover a month of debt servicing :)

your hope full of a month to contain the virus

[BlackPeter]

Not a pretty picture comparing TRA (blue line) with the NZX50 (brown line). Market seems to have little confidence that this one might shine. It didn't even properly bounce back on the current dead cat bounce (aka bear market rally)

11155

Question is - will they survive?

I remember that high unemployment rates are one of the killers for their finance business, and economists warn now to expect unemployment rates between 15% and 30%. No money, no job, no repayments. Easy as that.

Their balance sheet does not look that healthy either - their liabilities (70% of assets last FY, and I wonder whether their assets are still worth what they used to be at that time - i.e. real ratio might look much worse) go through the roof - maybe the share buyback around $2.50 was at the end of the day not the best idea since the invention of sliced bread ... and now they can't even realize whatever value might be stored in their stock due to the lock down situation.

Wondering why they don't even bother to update the market? Other companies do. Clearly the lack of sales and cash flow during the lock down creates a material change for their business.

Scary ... but then - it might be just a high risk, high reward game, but clearly 2 hot 4 me :scared:.

[Snoopy]

Question is - will they survive?

I remember that high unemployment rates are one of the killers for their finance business, and economists warn now to expect unemployment rates between 15% and 30%. No money, no job, no repayments. Easy as that.

Their balance sheet does not look that healthy either - their liabilities (70% of assets last FY, and I wonder whether their assets are still worth what they used to be at that time - i.e. real ratio might look much worse) go through the roof - maybe the share buyback around $2.50 was at the end of the day not the best idea since the invention of sliced bread ... and now they can't even realize whatever value might be stored in their stock due to the lock down situation.

Wondering why they don't even bother to update the market? Other companies do. Clearly the lack of sales and cash flow during the lock down creates a material change for their business.

Scary ... but then - it might be just a high risk, high reward game, but clearly 2 hot 4 me :scared:.


I prefer to 'zoom out' and look at the bigger picture. Here are some questions to consider:

1/ Will there be a need for second hand vehicles in the NZ market in the future?
2/ If YES, then who in New Zealand is in the second best position to supply them? (I would argue that Toyota New Zealand with their 'Signature' second hand brand is number one).

Now consider what the jobscape is liable to look like in the future. Rural is not going away and even some displaced city workers may need a reliable car for a long commute to the countryside to their new job.

Next think about all those helicopter parents who are ferrying their children back and forth to school. With social space rules being rewritten, suddenly all those four seater cars will become two seaters. A pent up demand for an upgrade? What about those workers who are left in the city. Will they still be keen to cosy up on public transport? Probably 'safer' to buy a little commuter car. And with many workers working from home permanently, they might even get a park in town!

I fully get the idea that we are headed for difficult economic times. But I think the need for replacement vehicles will remain and I think that demand for second hand vehicles will be less affected than demand for new vehicles. I think Turners are in a good position to meet the coming demand for vehicles. The fact they already conduct many of their auctions 'on line' mean they are in a good position to 'go electronic' in the short term if required.

I hear your concern about no COVID-19 Upgrade being issued. No doubt Todd is in discussion with his bankers and maybe negotiations are tough. We may even have a cash issue as a short term fix. That will hurt, but as a shareholder I would certainly support it if it gets the Turners business through this difficult patch.

SNOOPY

discl: holder

[sb9]

Not a bad update from company, seem to be hanging in there and obviously divvy is deferred, sensible decision under current scenario.

[Snoopy]

Not a bad update from company, seem to be hanging in there and obviously divvy is deferred, sensible decision under current scenario.


Largely agree sb9. Given Turners have promoted themselves as a 'dividend company', with a regular quarterly dividend coming in for those that sought income, I would have preferred to see a 'token dividend', even as low as 0.5cps, with a DRP option to reduce even further the modest cash drain such a dividend would cause. That wouldn't keep the dividends hounds happy, but it would keep them interested. Suspending the dividend completely could create panic selling by pensioners. And that is not good, as it would put downward pressure on the share price in an environment when more shares might need to be issued.

In market disrupting situations like this, I find it informative to look at what companies are doing rather that what they are saying. The fact that the dividend has been suspended indicates that Todd Turner is worried about the future funding of the company. The fact that Todd notes that no debt is due to be refinanced until 2021 should be some relief for shareholders is IMO hogwash. No company that has a choice would let their refinancing go right down to the wire. My take on this is that Turners is in urgent need of sorting out its future funding right now. It is good they are:

".... working proactively with landlords to reduce rent payments over the time of the lock down which has largely been received positively by property owners."

I must say their 'site redevelopment model' looks very good with hindsight.

1/ Buy land at rock bottom price.
2/ Plonk a container on the land and start charging themselves virtual above market rent.
3/ Sell the property to a hapless property investor based on yield, so that the 'virtual above market rent' changes to 'real above market rent' that is instantly capitalised in the Turners balance sheet in the sale from 'property sold at above market value'.
4/ When business suffers a downturn, negotiate to stop paying rent.

A great cash generating exercise for Turners shareholders. Not so much for the hapless landlord who is also faced with the capital loss implied by lower rent payments in the future.

I also find it interesting that suddenly the counter cyclical earning ability of EC Credit is now highlighted when just a few months ago it was effectively 'on the block' as a non core asset. If this crisis results in TRA retaining EC Credit, then I for one would regard that as a good thing.

The continuing income stream from

"...annuity revenues from finance and insurance."

was also mentioned. Way back when Turners Automotive Group was Dorchester, they did have a life insurance business. It has gone so far into the background that I don't recall it being mentioned in the text of last years quite comprehensive annual report. It is there if you look at the accounts section though. Unlike the PGW in house pension plan, the TRA plan is IIRC in surplus. So maybe a revival in this 'behind the curtain' side of the business is in order?

I will leave it there. I don't want to be too tough on Todd and the team in difficult times and I think with the cloud of uncertainty swirling, he is making the right noises and , behind the scenes, probably making the right moves. My previous post on the relative strength of the business (see this thread post 6059) still holds (except for the bit about the imminent dividend payment!) I have no problem continuing to hold my TRA shares in 'suitable portfolio weighted position'.

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Maybe I am the only one underwhelmed with we have $20m cash, (really not a lot), and no debt refinancing until 2021, (not far away really).

[winner69]

Maybe I am the only one underwhelmed with we have $20m cash, (really not a lot), and no debt refinancing until 2021, (not far away really).

...but access to heaps more cash ...thats good

[percy]

Email I have just sent to Todd.
Todd,
Trust you and your family are safe and well.
Thank you for a very full and frank update.

[macduffy]

To re-affirm profit guidance in these circumstances says a lot!

:)

[BlackPeter]

To re-affirm profit guidance in these circumstances says a lot!

:)

Agree with that. If it is true, then TRA would be an amazing business, on par with stars like A2M, FPH, GXH and the gentailers.

Still - didn't they say some time ago in one of the AGM's that a high unemployment rate would be bad for TRA? Lets hope they made some realistic assumptions about unemployment rate, peoples ability to pay back loans and peoples ability to lend money for a new pre-loved car when they confirmed their guidance.

Would be nice to know what working assumptions they made about the macroeconomic parameters.

[percy]

Turners update today.
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/tra.nzx-350973/

[Brain]

Cars breaking down and needing to be replaced with another car will continue. It is possible that people will think it a better idea to drive to work then risk public transport. Tourism,hotels,hair dressers ,and any other close contact business eg chiropractors and knocking shops will all struggle for a while - particularly the knocking shops. By comparison Turners could be a safe bet.

[winner69]

To re-affirm profit guidance in these circumstances says a lot!

:)

First paragraph - Despite a heavily disrupted March, Turners still expect the FY20 result to be within previously stated guidance of $28-$30m net profit before tax. Prior to the emergence of COVID-19 the group was on track to report at the high end of its earlier market guidance.

To me that reads as March was about $2m behind forecast ....probably running at a loss.


Then this bit -Turners expects adverse impacts on 1H21. It is too early to quantify these impacts.

To me that reads that from tomorrow things are not going looking too flash and they’re too scared to say how bad ....but a certainty they’ll be losing money or at best make a few bob.

But no worries ... our people steered us through the GFC. That’s good experience.

I would hazard a guess no divies for a while.

[percy]

The group continues to operate well within its bank covenants. Turners just confirmed an extension of
its securitisation warehouse facility with BNZ to $250 million (previously $200m) and has unrestricted
cash of $20m+ and further funding headroom if required. There are no renewals on debt until 2021.
 Turners benefits from being a purposefully diversified business, with different business cycles. For
example, annuity revenues from finance and insurance help offset the short-term decline in the activitybased revenue businesses of auto retail and credit management.
 Three of the group’s four businesses (Oxford Finance, DPL Insurance, EC Credit Control) are confirmed as
“Essential Services” under the financial institutions classification and are largely operating remotely.
 Turners are working proactively with landlords to reduce rent payments over the time of the lock down
which has largely been received positively by property owners. Government stimulus programs will also
make a substantial difference. All opex and capex plans are being reviewed.
 As well as the clear risks, this new dynamic environment could offer opportunities for the group, given
its leading position in the used vehicle ecosystem, the potential for rationalising of company fleets postlockdown, and activity from customers reducing vehicle costs. EC Credit Control will prosper during this
time given its counter cyclical features.

[Snoopy]

To re-affirm profit guidance in these circumstances says a lot!

:)

Not really as I see it. The COVID scare only became apparent in the last month of the business year for TRA (year ended 31st March). Todd has told us that they were trading ahead of budget until that time. So it stands to reason that with 11 months of performance already locked in, the single disrupted last month will not affect the annual result that much.

No such buoyant predictions have been made for FY2021....

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

Not really as I see it. The COVID scare only became apparent in the last month of the business year for TRA (year ended 31st March). Todd has told us that they were trading ahead of budget until that time. So it stands to reason that with 11 months of performance already locked in, the single disrupted last month will not affect the annual result that much.

No such buoyant predictions have been made for FY2021....

SNOOPY

Good point. I assumed falsely their FY is going through to June. But you are right, it ends already today - this means most of the COVID-19 impact will hit their FY2021 (and FY2022).

Loans will still be served this month - people still get paid, redundancy payments and / or the increased benefits.

The unemployment marathon starts in April / May ...

[Arthur]

Lots of cheap cars soon through forced sales. I wonder if they will go back to auctions where they make a cut much quicker and do not care what the price is so much as long as they get it sold. I guess they will slow their Japanese import business.

[percy]

Lots of cheap cars soon through forced sales. I wonder if they will go back to auctions where they make a cut much quicker and do not care what the price is so much as long as they get it sold. I guess they will slow their Japanese import business.

They have only stopped auctions because of the lock down.
I would guess they will have no need to import Japanese cars for some time.
Consignment stock will keep them flat out,when they come out of lock down..

[Baa_Baa]

They have only stopped auctions because of the lock down.
I would guess they will have no need to import Japanese cars for some time.
Consignment stock will keep them flat out,when they come out of lock down..

Assuming there are buyers. Punters will be looking carefully at discretionary purchases, especially largish capital expenses. Relative to their spending/budgets.

Carly put on the never never as well, that's only a couple of mill $AU invested, but who'd rent a car right now when you're not even allowed out to drive it, except for the groceries.

Troublesome times but you wouldn't know it from the company updates, all good, nothing to see here, she'll be right. Yeah Nah, imho.

[Beagle]

We haven't even been in lockdown for one whole week yet and their balance date is today. Less than one week and the effect is that they were at the top end of guidance but are now just meeting guidance. Reads between the lines. Just 6 days of lockdown has made a meaningful difference. How do they go in FY21 if the lockdown ends up being for another 6 weeks ?

[percy]

We haven't even been in lockdown for one whole week yet and their balance date is today. Less than one week and the effect is that they were at the top end of guidance but are now just meeting guidance. Reads between the lines. Just 6 days of lockdown has made a meaningful difference. How do they go in FY21 if the lockdown ends up being for another 6 weeks ?

Best described as "well positioned."............................lol.
Well certainly the best positioned in their sector.
Wonder whether AIR may get them to auction a few planes.?

[Beagle]

I'm sure I recall you saying they were well positioned a few years ago at $3.90 :p Still... I suppose that's better than saying THL were well positioned at over $6, so its all relative isn't it and to be fair I thought AIR were well positioned at around $3 last year :) They could see a big influx of campervans !

[percy]

I'm sure I recall you saying they were well positioned a few years ago at $3.90 :p Still... I suppose that's better than saying THL were well positioned at over $6, so its all relative isn't it and to be fair I thought AIR were well positioned at around $3 last year :) They could see a big influx of campervans !

And camper vans too.
Gee Whiz they are going to be going gang busters.
Incredible opportunities for them.

[winner69]

So guidance for H121 at this stage is Turners expects adverse impacts on 1H21.

Not quantifiable

Let’s see how this pans out

[macduffy]

So guidance for H121 at this stage is Turners expects adverse impacts on 1H21.

Not quantifiable

Let’s see how this pans out

Yes, all the above applies to all companies. Any "guidance" should be taken with a large lump of the saline stuff.

[winner69]

Yes, all the above applies to all companies. Any "guidance" should be taken with a large lump of the saline stuff.

As they say historical data may be recent, but it is already dated

Turners profits been declining for a while ...even in good times ....I hope current events don’t make them toast

[percy]

Should the current lock down continue for a year or two, I would expect Turners will be the last car dealer left standing before being "toasted."
Think most Mall retailers will be lucky to survive just a few months.
A lock down of under 2 or 3 months will see Turners coming out and going gangbusters.

[BlackPeter]

Should the current lock down continue for a year or two, I would expect Turners will be the last car dealer left standing before being "toasted."
Think most Mall retailers will be lucky to survive just a few months.
A lock down of under 2 or 3 months will see Turners coming out and going gangbusters.

I don't think the lock down will take longer than 2 or 3 months (hopefully shorter 4 to 6 weeks), however I'd expect afterwards still some months with less human contacts and socializing.

To predict what might happen for the NZ car market, it might be worthwhile to monitor the China vehicle market (which is 20 times larger than just Hubei province which had a total lock down). Data are here: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales

11190

This are total vehicle sales per month in China. February (which would be April in NZ) looked pretty devastating. Will be interesting to see how their March numbers look like when they are released.

[percy]

I don't think the lock down will take longer than 2 or 3 months (hopefully shorter 4 to 6 weeks), however I'd expect afterwards still some months with less human contacts and socializing.

To predict what might happen for the NZ car market, it might be worthwhile to monitor the China vehicle market (which is 20 times larger than just Hubei province which had a total lock down). Data are here: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/total-vehicle-sales

11190

This are total vehicle sales per month in China. February (which would be April in NZ) looked pretty devastating. Will be interesting to see how their March numbers look like when they are released.
Not good new for new vehicle sales.
However.
Turners expects its proportion of consignment sales is likely to grow in the period post the lockdown as certain businesses seek to downsize and liquidate vehicle fleets and consumers consider down grading or lower cost vehicles. Approximately 50% of cars sold currently are consignment vehicles and this is a part of our business we can easily scale.

[kiora]

A lot to move!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120787402/coronavirus-about-5000-rental-cars-parked-up-in-queenstown

[Beagle]

A lot to move!
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/120787402/coronavirus-about-5000-rental-cars-parked-up-in-queenstown

Yeap, I foresee a real glut of used cars coming to the market. Turners already started massive discounting. https://www.driven.co.nz/news/how-car-dealers-are-preparing-to-do-business-in-post-lockdown-nz/ I reckon if you're in the market, haggle REALLY HARD. If you're not getting a really screaming bargain, you paid too much !

[Jaa]

Yeap, I foresee a real glut of used cars coming to the market. Turners already started massive discounting. https://www.driven.co.nz/news/how-car-dealers-are-preparing-to-do-business-in-post-lockdown-nz/ I reckon if you're in the market, haggle REALLY HARD. If you're not getting a really screaming bargain, you paid too much !

So Turners will take a bath on their current stock but will be run off their feet with supply coming from rental companies (de-fleeting!), corporates and joe public trying to raise some quick cash. Buyers will snap up the bargains if the price of supply falls far enough. That's economics 101.

Not a bad place to be for a ticket clipper. Even better for NZ's largest dealer with the most capital, online bidding and space to store cars.

[Beagle]

Well positioned eh Percy ;)

[percy]

Approximately 50% of cars Turners sell currently are consignment vehicles.
Usually used vehicle sales slow during winter,so I would expect Turners had already started to wind down their imports.
A huge number of ex lease, and ex rental cars, with be coming onto the market when lock down finishes.
Any one looking to buy a car,boat or plane should get a bargain.
I think Turners will be run off their feet with auctions,and sales for a few months.
After that I think the used car market will be challenging, and there will be fewer dealers.

Well positioned.? Who would know how long this lockdown will go on for.? The longer it goes on for, the longer any recovery will take.And what that recovery will be like in 6 months,a year or two years I would not hazard a guess.However people will be trading vehicles with Turners.A great number of people will be forced to traded down,while others will trade up.Life goes on.

[macduffy]

Yes, I doubt that anyone can define "well positioned " at the moment. Equities, well at least most of them, are subject to violent swings in quoted values and increased risk; bonds have taken on an added element of risk; and even cash in the bank worries us at times as to its safety in the worst circumstances. Perhaps Beagle's go-to Kiwibonds are the "sleep at night" alternative? I'll take my chances on a well diversified share portfolio and a bigger than usual weighting towards cash.

[Snoopy]

Well positioned eh Percy ;)

From

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/how-car-dealers-are-preparing-to-do-business-in-post-lockdown-nz/

"We’d already figured out to sell online and deliver a car - we’ve had a Buy Now function for a few years,” says Turners general manager of marketing Sean Wiggans. “But we’ve never really pushed it."

" “When Covid-19 started happening, we thought if people really are worried, there’s a way that we can do this: [sell and deliver] without anybody touching anything."

Turners, the only car dealer able to operate under COVID level 3 restrictions?

Sounds good!

"As an essential business, Turners can still sell and deliver a car to essential workers during the lockdown,"

Jacinda recognises Turners as an essential business. I like it!

They sold a vehicle to a doctor the other day. Turners doing their bit for the recovery!

Well positioned? I think so!

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Yeah, YAWN...I've heard it all before, countless times. I won't quote really old posts as that's not really cool but if you go back to 14 September 2017 when the shares were ~ $3.20 you'll see quite clearly I was starting to really lose faith, while others were talking of 25% per annum eps growth and some even of $5 by late 2019.

I think some people really don't get it that the used vehicle market is, and always has been, and probably always will be, an extremely tough low margin business with no moat to entry with its market share being steadily eroded by private sellers and buyers on Trade Me.
The receivables ledger was going from bad to worse in boom times before this virus with bad and doubtful debts steadily heading up indicating systemic issues with their approvals and collections process. I believe that's the reason they couldn't sell it. Now we're in a severe recession, (possible global depression), they are going to get smashed with bad debtors in their finance division, as sure as night follows day.

I believe they are actually very poorly positioned to weather this deep global recession, possible great depression because they have recently expanded their retail footprint with lots of expensive long leases. Very good stock to avoid, in my opinion.

[Cyclical]

They've come up with a novel solution in Florida to deal with the excess of rental cars...

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/05/us/airport-fires-cars-trnd/index.html

[BlackPeter]

... so true, beagle. There is nothing in this picture which would encourage me to consider this stock:

11221

Sure - the company will either survive (and than it might bounce at some stage) or it might crash. I don't see however any indication that the bottom might be in.

What are the odds for TRA surviving? I don't know, but a lot of debt on the balance sheet are not normally a positive sign.

And sure, while trading of cars might be essential ... there is nothing special about Turners (anymore). They are not a one stop shop, but just another used car dealer. The barriers for market entry into this market are probably the lowest for any industry in NZ - anybody can set up a used car business in their backyard, neither qualifications nor special premises required. It is much tougher to open a fish & chips outlet than a used car business.

Add to that that we can expect now for some time a huge surplus (lots of unused rental cars and company fleet cars which loose value every month) on the supply side coupled with weak demand (no job, no car) will make the months to come really tough for any dealer. It is a buyers market.

Ah yes, and the quality of their loans won't improve from a large number of Kiwis loosing their jobs ...

Lots of risks and not that many potential rewards.

[winner69]

So much for TA .... I think our perfect inverse bell curve pattern is a bit munted.

[Beagle]

... so true, beagle. There is nothing in this picture which would encourage me to consider this stock:

11221

Sure - the company will either survive (and than it might bounce at some stage) or it might crash. I don't see however any indication that the bottom might be in.

What are the odds for TRA surviving? I don't know, but a lot of debt on the balance sheet are not normally a positive sign.

And sure, while trading of cars might be essential ... there is nothing special about Turners (anymore). They are not a one stop shop, but just another used car dealer. The barriers for market entry into this market are probably the lowest for any industry in NZ - anybody can set up a used car business in their backyard, neither qualifications nor special premises required. It is much tougher to open a fish & chips outlet than a used car business.

Add to that that we can expect now for some time a huge surplus (lots of unused rental cars and company fleet cars which loose value every month) on the supply side coupled with weak demand (no job, no car) will make the months to come really tough for any dealer. It is a buyers market.

Ah yes, and the quality of their loans won't improve from a large number of Kiwis loosing their jobs ...

Lots of risks and not that many potential rewards.

Good summary mate and you're quite right that people can import and sell up to 6 cars per annum from their own home without any overheads whatsoever and many do.

[Snoopy]

I think some people really don't get it that the used vehicle market is, and always has been, and probably always will be, an extremely tough low margin business with no moat to entry with its market share being steadily eroded by private sellers and buyers on Trade Me.

The receivables ledger was going from bad to worse in boom times before this virus with bad and doubtful debts steadily heading up indicating systemic issues with their approvals and collections process. I believe that's the reason they couldn't sell it.


I think what many have forgotten here is that, despite the name, Turners is actually a finance company. It is the old Dorchester with a car retailing add on to provide a steady stream of customers to sign up to finance deals. We know from 'competitor' Sir Jeffrey's presentation at the Heartland AGM that motor loans are a high margin part of the finance sector. It isn't true to say that Turners couldn't sell Oxford finance. There were bidders. It is just that Turners management decided there was more value in holding than selling at the price offered.

Turners had certainly tightened their lending criteria well before the Covid crisis. I don't doubt there will be more bad loans than expected now. But maybe not as many as you think?

The alternative of Turners selling Oxford would IMO have been much worse. The new owner might have run scared or gone possum in the headlights still, with no new funding available! A bit like when PGW sold their finance division to Heartland and new loan approval proved difficult because Heartland did not know their PGW loan customers. At least as it is now, Turners has a finance company that will back their car sales with loans.

Oh, and all these cars that Turners are selling below cost. That doesn't mean an overall loss for the company. Because the real money is to be made in the accompanying finance deals.



Now we're in a severe recession, (possible global depression), they are going to get smashed with bad debtors in their finance division, as sure as night follows day.


And EC Credit gets the job of recovering what they can from the loan (ticket clipped). And the repossessed car gets sold on through Turners Auctions (ticket clipped).

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Shake those rose coloured glasses off your snout and have a look at how bad and doubtful debt provisioning was steadily climbing during strong economic times leading up to the Corona virus, then think if they were not under control and increasing at a bad rate previously, how are they going to go in a very deep recession ? I haven't forgotten they're a finance company, (others probably have), and I haven't forgotten that finance companies do really badly in a global financial crisis. Remember all the finance company failures in the GFC ?

Anyway...I can't be bothered with any sort of new campaign...if you and others want to look on the bright side, good luck.

[macduffy]

Anyway...I can't be bothered with any sort of new campaign...if you and others want to look on the bright side, good luck.

That's a shame. I was looking forward to a stimulating exchange to brighten this dreary lockdown!

:(

[percy]

That's a shame. I was looking forward to a stimulating exchange to brighten this dreary lockdown!

:(

The field is wide open for you to take up the mantle macduffy.
Another 150 pages of the same old .?.I can't be bothered.
Perhaps you could start by stating neither Marac or MTF had large motor impairements during GFC.
Marac lost their shirt on property development lending.

[macduffy]

I'm a keen observer of TRA, percy, rather than a current or potential investor in the company. I exited a small holding several years ago and counted myself lucky at the time to emerge, capital intact. It's been a fascinating read since, the sole listing with a finance co. flavour left on the lists now that UDC are no longer there. Mind you, there are some who would mutter that HGH is really one - I couldn't possibly comment!

Cheers

[percy]

I'm a keen observer of TRA, percy, rather than a current or potential investor in the company. I exited a small holding several years ago and counted myself lucky at the time to emerge, capital intact. It's been a fascinating read since, the sole listing with a finance co. flavour left on the lists now that UDC are no longer there. Mind you, there are some who would mutter that HGH is really one - I couldn't possibly comment!

Cheers

Now that you mention UDC. I seem to remember they sailed through GFC.
HGH a finance company.? I couldn't possibly comment either..lol.

[peat]

I see an email I got from Driven (the motoring arm of The NZ Herald ) was using a photo of a Turners car yard and talking about how they are able to sell cars contactlessly, and how they have sold a few to essential workers, and so are revving up for any lowering of restrictions on business activity.

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/how-car-dealers-are-preparing-to-do-business-in-post-lockdown-nz/?ref=drivenEDM

Obviously all this government interference in conducting enterprise is a problem but at least it is stimulating customer service developments.

[Beagle]

That's a shame. I was looking forward to a stimulating exchange to brighten this dreary lockdown!

:(

Trying to chill out in this lockdown. Sometimes a couple of good woof's is all that's required :)

[peat]

Trying to chill out in this lockdown.

It seems to me to be a good time to have a rest. Many people are doing just that so its more acceptable than ever ; the extreme volatility of the markets is passing somewhat - I feel like it is mainly time that will heal the economy's wounds and time will take its time.

[Snoopy]

Shake those rose coloured glasses off your snout and have a look at how bad and doubtful debt provisioning was steadily climbing during strong economic times leading up to the Corona virus, then think if they were not under control and increasing at a bad rate previously, how are they going to go in a very deep recession ?


Actually I have been keeping a close eye on the increasing proportional trend for the provision of bad debts here:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10678-An-Investment-Story-Geneva-Turners-Heartland/page3&highlight=Story

See "An Investment Story Chapter 6: Impaired Asset Position(s)"

Yes there was a large jump in the impairment provision for FY2019. I didn't fully get to the bottom of that at Turners. But there was an interesting disclosure on the effect of what would have happened at Heartland had the new NZIFRS 9 accounting standard been adopted a year earlier in FY2018. I quote the salient point below.

"1b/ IFRS9 adopted in FY2019 has resulted in a change to the way the 'provision for impairment' is measured. This is due to the adoption of the 'Expected Credit Loss' (ECL) model. For FY2018, this has resulted in an increase from the former $29.671m to $57.756m (details AR2109 p26)"

This shows that the adoption of NZ IFRS9 alone increased the impaired asset provisioning by:

$57.756m / $29.671m = +95%

When you look through this one off reporting standard change, you will see that the increase in the provision for bad debts from FY2018 to FY2019 has barely changed. I expect that the 'apparent' similar jump in impairment provision from FY2018 to FY2019 at Turners can be explained in the same way.

SNOOPY

[winner69]

All the recent negativity that comes out on here re Turners has driven the share price back into the 140’s

Happens quite often ....say they useless share price goes up.

[sb9]

All the recent negativity that comes out on here re Turners has driven the share price back into the 140’s

Happens quite often ....say they useless share price goes up.

Especially when the resident dog and cat are at loggerheads...lol

[Snow Leopard]

So much for TA .... I think our perfect inverse bell curve pattern is a bit munted.


I would like to point out that in less than a month inverse bell curves will be 'so last year'.

And remember you read it here first.

I am so far ahead of the curve it even frightens me at times. :eek2:

Take care & stay safe.

[Timesurfer]

If the US market is any indicator things will be ugly for Turners
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-used-Vehicle-sales-daily-percent-change-2020-apr-05-.png

[blackcap]

If the US market is any indicator things will be ugly for Turners
https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/US-used-Vehicle-sales-daily-percent-change-2020-apr-05-.png

Well obviously currently the TRA figures are going to be close to -100%. No trade whilst in lockdown. Similar would apply to the US one thinks.

[BlackPeter]

Well obviously currently the TRA figures are going to be close to -100%. No trade whilst in lockdown. Similar would apply to the US one thinks.

US not in lock down. Some states doing a bit of lock down, others are happy virus breeders and spreaders.

[blackcap]

US not in lock down. Some states doing a bit of lock down, others are happy virus breeders and spreaders.

Yeah exactly that is why their figures were down 60 odd percent and not 100% like its going to be for the applicable month in NZ.

[Snoopy]

Yeah exactly that is why their figures were down 60 odd percent and not 100% like its going to be for the applicable month in NZ.


From a buyers perspective, buying a car is not a 'monthly thing'. The chances are that if your old car was not worth fixing up a month ago, then it is still not worth fixing up. The need for a newer car has not gone away, COVID or no COVID. It seems more likely that sales at TRA 'lost' under the lock down are sales deferred. That is more than you can say about takeaways from the local fish and chip shop!

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

Yeah exactly that is why their figures were down 60 odd percent and not 100% like its going to be for the applicable month in NZ.

Pretty cheap and nonsensical comment. NZ is closing its doors to the virus while the US is breeding it. Closing the doors means an initial investment, but lets compare in a year who did better, shall we?

[Cyclical]

From a buyers perspective, buying a car is not a 'monthly thing'. The chances are that if your old car was not worth fixing up a month ago, then it is still not worth fixing up. The need for a newer car has not gone away, COVID or no COVID. It seems more likely that sales at TRA 'lost' under the lock down are sales deferred. That is more than you can say about takeaways from the local fish and chip shop!

SNOOPY

Needing to replace the old car not worth fixing is only going to make up a certain percentage of TRA's sales though isn't it? I'd suggest a much higher proportion of sales would be more the discretionary want buys, which would surely take a huge hit when the realities of a recession take hold.

[Snoopy]

Needing to replace the old car not worth fixing is only going to make up a certain percentage of TRA's sales though isn't it? I'd suggest a much higher proportion of sales would be more the discretionary want buys, which would surely take a huge hit when the realities of a recession take hold.


Fair point Cyclical. But 'zoom out' and the macro picture of the NZ car market has not changed. The average car is old and getting older. At some point the need to de-age the fleet must come. And in a recession a 3-4 year old used car is more likely way to do that than buying new. I am not saying the next few months won't be tough. But I don't see the big picture has been derailed by Covid-19. In fact with the need for 'spatial distancing', some who can afford it may choose to buy their own car rather than 'risk' public transport.

SNOOPY

[freddagg]

Pretty cheap and nonsensical comment. NZ is closing its doors to the virus while the US is breeding it. Closing the doors means an initial investment, but lets compare in a year who did better, shall we?

The country doing better in a year will be the one that allows " herd immunity" to develop the fastest, because then it can get on with life

[blackcap]

Pretty cheap and nonsensical comment. NZ is closing its doors to the virus while the US is breeding it. Closing the doors means an initial investment, but lets compare in a year who did better, shall we?

I did not imply that NZ or the US is better. I was merely pointing out to the alarmist that US sales have plummeted then that is due to the initial lock downs. Ie sales are not plummeting because people do not want to or cannot afford to buy cars. Its because they physically cannot. Once lockdowns reverse those figures will be back to even or thereabouts.

[Cyclical]

The country doing better in a year will be the one that allows " herd immunity" to develop the fastest, because then it can get on with life

There is that concern. The cynical might suggest Trump's apparent hopelessness in handling this thing might be by design...

[waterboy]

The country doing better in a year will be the one that allows " herd immunity" to develop the fastest, because then it can get on with life

Really, those countries will be in lockdowns and economic issues longer than anybody, NZ will have it under control until either a cure or vaccine is invented with minimal disruption compared to those that didnt.
Back to the topic turners also generate revenue from insurance which is ongoing during lockdowns and finance which is also ongoing. New sales I suspect will take a hit but will not show up on the financials for a while yet.

[freddagg]

Really, those countries will be in lockdowns and economic issues longer than anybody, NZ will have it under control until either a cure or vaccine is invented with minimal disruption compared to those that didnt.
Back to the topic turners also generate revenue from insurance which is ongoing during lockdowns and finance which is also ongoing. New sales I suspect will take a hit but will not show up on the financials for a while yet.

My understanding is that this is just a new strain of the cold virus and there has never been a vaccine developed for any cold virus and there are over 200 strains.
If we are successful in stopping C19 spreading I can see a scenario where the bulk of the worlds population will have immunity through being exposed to the virus and NZ will be stuck in a time warp for years to come, still waiting in "hope" for a vaccine.
Still wrong thread so suggest moving discussion to:Potential adverse effects from coronavirus on NZ economy

[Arthur]

https://www.turners.co.nz/Cars/Sale/2020/cost-or-less/?utm_source=google&utm_medium=display&utm_content=gmail_remarketing&utm_campaign=GMAIL-CostOrLessApril2020-Top&gclid=CjwKCAjwssD0BRBIEiwA-JP5rNxCD5qdDzZmMGk1UYCxUymtPMqZ8bDcpnh5ridCxbe9OMr TSfNp-hoCOmkQAvD_BwE

[Sideshow Bob]

Here is an opportunity!! :p:mellow::confused:

(https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/locked)https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/locked

That is with not even any campervans in the photo. Have seen it bigger, after the ski season in about October.

When the restrictions are lifted, would say plenty of no-cost one-way hires will be available......

[Snoopy]

Here is an opportunity!! :p:mellow::confused:

(https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/locked)https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/queenstown/locked

That is with not even any campervans in the photo. Have seen it bigger, after the ski season in about October.

When the restrictions are lifted, would say plenty of no-cost one-way hires will be available......



And here is another opportunity. With their expertise in 'container buildings' I would like to see Todd and team build up some 'hospital bed containers'. Then if there was a COVID-19 outbreak in some region, they could truck the container beds in so that the COVID patients could be isolated. Possibly the COVID-19 victims could be retained in the existing Hospital Building to easily access the 'built in equipment' while the 'other' patients could go outside into the containers. It might be a way to get some on-sellable work out of those clever container transformers who are at home on gardening leave? Plus Turners could probably use some 'in stock trucks' to haul the containers around. What about it Todd, if you are at home reading this, in amongst what must be now a quite magnificent garden at your place?

SNOOPY

[toddhunter]

And here is another opportunity. With their expertise in 'container buildings' I would like to see Todd and team build up some 'hospital bed containers'. Then if there was a COVID-19 outbreak in some region, they could truck the container beds in so that the COVID patients could be isolated. Possibly the COVID-19 victims could be retained in the existing Hospital Building to easily access the 'built in equipment' while the 'other' patients could go outside into the containers. It might be a way to get some on-sellable work out of those clever container transformers who are at home on gardening leave? Plus Turners could probably use some 'in stock trucks' to haul the containers around. What about it Todd, if you are at home reading this, in amongst what must be now a quite magnificent garden at your place?

SNOOPY
Hi Austen...We are pretty focused on "contactless" selling of cars at the moment...but like your creative thinking! Yes the lawns and hedges are well trimmed at the moment...I have 3 teenage daughters/workers who need to earn their keep!

[toddhunter]

Sorry Snoopy I got you a little confused in the Covid blur with Percy! Apologies to you both! Todd H

[Snoopy]

Sorry Snoopy I got you a little confused in the Covid blur with Percy! Apologies to you both! Todd H


No problem Todd. We did get into a little shareholder huddle for a while Percy and I. He bought into 'my' Turners Automotive Group. I bought into his 'Heartland'. Then he bought into my 'PGG Wrightson' and 'Skellerup' as well (although I think he has since sold the latter). I was going to propose a full merger. We could have called ourselves 'Persnoop' (even if that does sound a bit like Parsnip). So not surprising you got us confused! Glad to hear the garden is going well. All the best to you are your family.

SNOOPY

[ziggy415]

Hi Austen...We are pretty focused on "contactless" selling of cars at the moment...but like your creative thinking! Yes the lawns and hedges are well trimmed at the moment...I have 3 teenage daughters/workers who need to earn their keep!

TODD..Hope your paying your 3 staff the full $585 a week and not pocketing some yourself..as you say innovative thinking

[percy]

Sorry Snoopy I got you a little confused in the Covid blur with Percy! Apologies to you both! Todd H

All good...lol.

[toddhunter]

For those that are interested, I would be happy to run a Zoom call giving an update on life in lockdown at Turners Auto Group and how we see the business emerging. Aaron Saunders and I have been running a series of these with the major wealth advisor firms and institutional investors over the last two weeks. Perhaps if you could give me some sense via feedback to the post whether this would be of interest and if there is I will set it up. Thanks Todd

[percy]

Always enjoy your and Aaron's presentations,so would look forward to it.
Will need [simple] instructions how to connect with Zoom.

[RRR]

I will join as well. Thanks

[Joshuatree]

Yes me too thanks.

[forest]

Great idea Todd, we need all the updated info that is out there.

[blackcap]

Great idea Todd, all in.

You might want to offer this zoom call to the New Zealand Shareholders Association (NZSA) as well who could email their members with a zoom link for those that are interested. The NZSA has a large membership of whom quite a few would be shareholders. If you want me to get in touch with them or get some details to you, PM me. Cheers.

[CD_CHCH]

I'd be keen to join in as well thanks Todd

[Jaa]

For those that are interested, I would be happy to run a Zoom call giving an update on life in lockdown at Turners Auto Group and how we see the business emerging. Aaron Saunders and I have been running a series of these with the major wealth advisor firms and institutional investors over the last two weeks. Perhaps if you could give me some sense via feedback to the post whether this would be of interest and if there is I will set it up. Thanks Todd

Pretty poor for you to run these for only some (rich) shareholders. A healthy market requires information to be available to all at the same time.

[bull....]

Pretty poor for you to run these for only some (rich) shareholders. A healthy market requires information to be available to all at the same time.

well you only need to look as far back as the share buyback to see who benefited most from that.
Now they are overloaded in debt in a very depressed car market and economy , if you assume what happened overseas for same market will happen here things could be tough going forward.

[toddhunter]

Which is why I have offered the opportunity up for all here Jaa. We are very careful what we say and we are always conscious of our continuous disclosure obligations.

I would think the number of listed businesses offering up a Q&A session via this forum could be counted on one hand...I might be wrong of course and I am sure someone will tell me if I am!

And of course any shareholder is welcome to call me anytime ... and many do (021722818 todd.hunter@turners.co.nz) I am waiting to hear back from the NZSA and then will book the time in and send around the zoom web link. Thanks Todd

[silverblizzard888]

Which is why I have offered the opportunity up for all here Jaa. We are very careful what we say and we are always conscious of our continuous disclosure obligations.

I would think the number of listed businesses offering up a Q&A session via this forum could be counted on one hand...I might be wrong of course and I am sure someone will tell me if I am!

And of course any shareholder is welcome to call me anytime ... and many do (021722818 todd.hunter@turners.co.nz) I am waiting to hear back from the NZSA and then will book the time in and send around the zoom web link. Thanks Todd

I personally haven't seen many listed companies offering much Q&A on here, so I'd definitely like to say you've gone far and beyond what other companies have done. I'm sure its without saying that many shareholders appreciate and are very thankful for your efforts =)

[bull....]

Which is why I have offered the opportunity up for all here Jaa. We are very careful what we say and we are always conscious of our continuous disclosure obligations.

I would think the number of listed businesses offering up a Q&A session via this forum could be counted on one hand...I might be wrong of course and I am sure someone will tell me if I am!

And of course any shareholder is welcome to call me anytime ... and many do (021722818 todd.hunter@turners.co.nz) I am waiting to hear back from the NZSA and then will book the time in and send around the zoom web link. Thanks Todd

I take my hat of to you fronting on a forum , I wont be able to make your call but it would be appreciated if you could explain to all why the buyback was done instead of using the funds to pay of your high debt.

[percy]

[QUOTE=winner69;731708]They say it’s undervalued by the market. If they are a retail

I thought it was unprofessional of directors to comment on the share price of companies they representing.

If the directors really believe the share price is undervalued why not just simply have an share buyback.
Instead of spending money on an Aussie listing in the hope the Aussies push the SP up.

An substantial buyback is more likely to give share holders the confidence the directors are looking for.

Posted on page 212.
We are now on page 412.
200 pages and we are back there.!
Come on Bull move on.
Lets hear Todd's and Aaron's plans for coming out of lock down.
What are their prospects.?
Going back and flogging a dead horse we learn nothing.

[Snoopy]

I take my hat of to you fronting on a forum , I wont be able to make your call but it would be appreciated if you could explain to all why the buyback was done instead of using the funds to pay of your high debt.

The more hindsight you have, the better armchair manager you become!

SNOOPY

[toddhunter]

For those that are interested, I would be happy to run a Zoom call giving an update on life in lockdown at Turners Auto Group and how we see the business emerging. Aaron Saunders and I have been running a series of these with the major wealth advisor firms and institutional investors over the last two weeks. Perhaps if you could give me some sense via feedback to the post whether this would be of interest and if there is I will set it up. Thanks Todd

OK here are the details for the Business Update / Q&A with myself and Aaron Saunders.

Thursday 30th April 9am - 10am

https://turners.zoom.us/j/95478081176?pwd=enBSQ214alM5dTVXeUVLcEtOZGJidz09

Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176
Password: 823719

Dial by your location
+64 4 886 0026 New Zealand
+64 9 884 6780 New Zealand
Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176

If you email me confirmation of your attendance I will add you to the calendar invite which will have all the information in it.

Thanks
Todd

[Snow Leopard]

OK here are the details for the Business Update / Q&A with myself and Aaron Saunders.

Thursday 30th April 9am - 10am

https://turners.zoom.us/j/95478081176?pwd=enBSQ214alM5dTVXeUVLcEtOZGJidz09

Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176
Password: 823719

Dial by your location
+64 4 886 0026 New Zealand
+64 9 884 6780 New Zealand
Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176

If you email me confirmation of your attendance I will add you to the calendar invite which will have all the information in it.

Thanks
Todd

Considering whether to stay up late (in the UK) to join this.
Is it OK if I am in my PJ's and my Teddy Bear attends too?

[iceman]

Would like to add my appreciation of you doing this Todd. Unfortunately I will not be able to join the call but congratulate you for offering this to Sharetraders. blackcaps idea to let the NZSA send out an email is a good one and hope it gets taken up. Well done.

[Brain]

Considering whether to stay up late (in the UK) to join this.
Is it OK if I am in my PJ's and my Teddy Bear attends too?

As long as the bear is appropriately dressed doesn’t swear and is not under the influence of drugs I think all is well

[RRR]

Sorry, if it is a dumb question - is it possible to record for viewing later??

[Snow Leopard]

As long as the bear is appropriately dressed doesn’t swear and is not under the influence of drugs I think all is well
https://i.pinimg.com/originals/5c/3f/70/5c3f70a4e61fca4991d64d8499d6cbd6.jpg

[toddhunter]

will try RRR

[SCOTTY]

Thanks Todd. Really appreciate your offer.
Cheers

[iceman]

will try RRR

That would be great if possible. Not a silly question at all RRR :-)

[percy]

TRUSTED BRANDS NZ 2020.

Category ;Used Vehicle Dealership.
Winner;Turners Cars.

Well done Todd and the team at Turners.

[Balance]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121305068/car-prices-tipped-to-fall-as-demand-drops-and-rental-firms-are-driven-to-the-wall

Rental Vehicle Association chief executive Pim Borren said he had been advised that second-hand car prices could fall by as much as 30 per cent as the country came out of lockdown.

[percy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/121305068/car-prices-tipped-to-fall-as-demand-drops-and-rental-firms-are-driven-to-the-wall

Rental Vehicle Association chief executive Pim Borren said he had been advised that second-hand car prices could fall by as much as 30 per cent as the country came out of lockdown.

Wonder whether Turners will be able to keep up with the demand.?
I guess Todd will answer that tomorrow morning.

[winner69]

Wonder whether Turners will be able to keep up with the demand.?
I guess Todd will answer that tomorrow morning.

Even if margin $ per sale is down heaps more sales is still great for Turners eh percy

[percy]

Even if margin $ per sale is down heaps more sales is still great for Turners eh percy

Lets wait and hear from Todd tomorrow morning.9am..

[tommy_d]

Lets wait and hear from Todd tomorrow morning.9am..
i'm really impressed that this is going ahead. Work commitments mean that I won't be able to participate as it is happening. Having the session recorded and made available would be great, but I recognise there might be barriers to doing so - fingers crossed :)

[Balance]

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=310729

Famous last words?

Time for me to take the opportunity to upgrade to a newish ex-rental SUV, I think.

[percy]

https://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=310729

Famous last words?

Time for me to take the opportunity to upgrade to a newish ex-rental SUV, I think.

May be a case of "Buy one and get another half price.".with double "fly buy points"..lol.
Could be even cheaper if you pick them up in Queenstown.?
Quess the cheapest will be the Lucy ones.Trouble may be finding it?

[Balance]

May be a case of "Buy one and get another half price."..lol.

Well, international tourism is not going to be back up and running for a while yet so what choice do the rental car companies but to sell as many of their vehicles as possible?

Holding & servicing costs are going to be horrendous.

Up to 50,000 rental cars alone in NZ to be offloaded in a big hurry to avoid financial disaster - so ‘buy one, get one free’ could be more like it.

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hertz-talks-banks-treasury-push-164219427.html

Hertz in talks with banks and Treasury to avoid bankruptcy.

Wonder how many vehicles Hertz will have to sell to avoid receivership (Chapter 11).

[Balance]

So what does the above inevitable flood of ex-rental cars into a weak market in the year ahead do to the value and margins of used car dealers?

[percy]

Car sales including second hand,are a lot slower in winter.Always the best time to buy as prices are lowest.
So I think you will get the ex rental SUV at a "never to be repeated " price,but selling your Merc may be a chellange.

[percy]

So what does the above inevitable flood of ex-rental cars into a weak market in the year ahead do to the value and margins of used car dealers?

Listen into Todd at 9 am and find out.

[percy]

OK here are the details for the Business Update / Q&A with myself and Aaron Saunders.

Thursday 30th April 9am - 10am

https://turners.zoom.us/j/95478081176?pwd=enBSQ214alM5dTVXeUVLcEtOZGJidz09

Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176
Password: 823719

Dial by your location
+64 4 886 0026 New Zealand
+64 9 884 6780 New Zealand
Meeting ID: 954 7808 1176

If you email me confirmation of your attendance I will add you to the calendar invite which will have all the information in it.

Thanks
Todd

Right all set,ready.

[winner69]

Right all set,ready.

You zooming in PERCY or on the phone

[forest]

Thanks Todd and Aaron for the zoom time, much appreciated.

[percy]

You zooming in PERCY or on the phone

Zoomed.Brilliant.
Thank you Aaron and Todd.
As always, up front and and totally frank answers.

[SCOTTY]

Thanks Todd and Aaron. A very informative and encouraging meeting. I feel that the company is in excellent hands. Cheers

[sb9]

Zoomed.Brilliant.
Thank you Aaron and Todd.
As always, up front and and totally frank answers.

Agree nice meeting, both of them are true kiwi gents!!!

[toddhunter]

Thanks everyone for attending our first Zoom Q&A...I wish I had got a photo of the screen!

Unfortunately I forgot to hit record so sorry no recording.

Again if anyone has any follow up questions please email myself todd.hunter@turners.co.nz or aaron.saunders@turners.co.nz

Thanks
Todd

[Joshuatree]

No recording:ohmy:, couldnt make the time.Oh well thanks anyway.How are peoples sentiments?

[peat]

No recording:ohmy:, couldnt make the time.Oh well thanks anyway.How are peoples sentiments?

it presented the company as being well managed and dealing with all the CV19 challenges as well as can be expected. Banker support for up to 5 months of lockdown if necessary . Business model not fully undercut, with some operations continuing to generate revenue. Consignment vehicles 50% and to increase over next few months so as to reduce funding requirements. No expectation of capital raising.

I am not ready to invest more however remain holding at about 10% of portfolio and look forward to dividends resuming asap.

[Balance]

Just checked some used car prices on TradeMe. Prices have definitely dropped (I checked against a pre-lockdown newspaper prices) but only around 5% so far.

If I were a used car dealer, I would be fire-selling ASAP and getting rid of all my existing stock at cost or lower if required.

Plenty of opportunities to restock at much lower prices when the rental cars start dumping stock.

[Snoopy]

Just checked some used car prices on TradeMe. Prices have definitely dropped (I checked against a pre-lockdown newspaper prices) but only around 5% so far.

If I were a used car dealer, I would be fire-selling ASAP and getting rid of all my existing stock at cost or lower if required.

Plenty of opportunities to restock at much lower prices when the rental cars start dumping stock.

No there won't be! All that excess rental car stock will be going through Turners. All other dealers will be out of luck ;-)

SNOOPY

[Balance]

No there won't be! All that excess rental car stock will be going through Turners. All other dealers will be out of luck ;-)

SNOOPY

Turners has a contract with all the rental car companies to sell their used-car stock?

I thought that there are a few dealers specializing in selling ex-rentals - Orix, AutoSelect & FleetPartners to name 3 off the top of my head.

Must admit it has been a while since I talked to anyone in the industry however.

[winner69]

Turners has a contract with the rental car companies to sell their used-car stock?

Turners will be buying the cheap ones for Carly or whatever it’s called

[steveb]

One thing you can be sure of is it's a mess,there are also going to be a vast amount of company cars being sold,as downsizing and layoffs continue.So are the buyers going to be there?

[Balance]

One thing you can be sure of is it's a mess,there are also going to be a vast amount of company cars being sold,as downsizing and layoffs continue.So are the buyers going to be there?

I am looking to buy 1 SUV - at around half price of what they are trying to sell today.

Cars, being a durable discretionary spend, will imo definitely feel the impact of the recession as bad as the tourism & hospitality sectors - maybe more so due to the collapse of the rental car industry.

[peat]

One thing you can be sure of is it's a mess,there are also going to be a vast amount of company cars being sold,as downsizing and layoffs continue.So are the buyers going to be there?


according to Aaron from the meeting - " if the price is only $1 then will there be enough buyers? "

[percy]

Turners will be buying the cheap ones for Carly or whatever it’s called

The way I heard Todd, it sounded like the rental car companies will "partner" Turners and provide some vehicles for Carly.

[Baa_Baa]

The way I heard Todd, it sounded like the rental car companies will "partner" Turners and provide some vehicles for Carly.

Carly NZ pushed out to Sept quarter (9-12 months later than planned), from the Collaborate update today. So five months away, not going to have any short to medium term effect on utility of the excess vehicles stocks. They’re pretty happy about the ‘development’ revenue as well (from Turners).

[percy]

Carly NZ pushed out to Sept quarter (9-12 months later than planned), from the Collaborate update today. So five months away, not going to have any short to medium term effect on utility of the excess vehicles stocks. They’re pretty happy about the ‘development’ revenue as well (from Turners).

Did you zoom in with Aaron and Todd.?
I will repeat "The way I heard Todd,it sounded like the rental companies will "partner" Turners and provide some vehicles for Carly."
I take that it will be now in September,from the CL8 announcement..

[Baa_Baa]

Did you zoom in with Aaron and Todd.?
I will repeat "The way I heard Todd,it sounded like the rental companies will "partner" Turners and provide some vehicles for Carly."
I take that it will be now in September,from the CL8 announcement..

Yes percy that’s the business model of Carly to partner with vehicle ‘suppliers’ that fulfill the supply side. So stand to reason that Turners is basically the underwriter with a supply base, supplemented by other car yards in time, rental companies and punters. The challenge in the shorter term is that Carly won’t be online for some months, way longer than intended. Medium term as Collaborate figured out, it’s not about supply, it’s about demand. Turners will able to meet demand in Toto for ages as the demand side is built.

I’m hopeful that the investment works out they’ve sunk millions into this, but having followed Collaborate for years, I know it’s a long game punt on a travel / ownership mode shift to subscription and don’t expect this entirely new business model of ride subscriptions to contribute meaningful revenue to turners for many years, even if it works out, which is far from guaranteed.

[percy]

Yes percy that’s the business model of Carly to partner with vehicle ‘suppliers’ that fulfill the supply side. So stand to reason that Turners is basically the underwriter with a supply base, supplemented by other car yards in time, rental companies and punters. The challenge in the shorter term is that Carly won’t be online for some months, way longer than intended. Medium term as Collaborate figured out, it’s not about supply, it’s about demand. Turners will able to meet demand in Toto for ages as the demand side is built.

I’m hopeful that the investment works out they’ve sunk millions into this, but having followed Collaborate for years, I know it’s a long game punt on a travel / ownership mode shift to subscription and don’t expect this entirely new business model of ride subscriptions to contribute meaningful revenue to turners for many years, even if it works out, which is far from guaranteed.

Thought I heard it correctly.
From what I have seen,heard and read, Todd feels very confident that the timing is right for Carly.
I do not have an opinion,other than I think Turners are right to try this subscription model.
It will either work or it will not work.

[Baa_Baa]

Thought I heard it correctly.
From what I have seen,heard and read, Todd feels very confident that the timing is right for Carly.
I do not have an opinion,other than I think Turners are right to try this subscription model.
It will either work or it will not work.

Yeah it’s an interesting play, getting in early on Transport mode shift from ownership to subscription, but it’s the long game and will involve ongoing investment for possible quite a longtime to realise returns to shareholders. If ever, as is strategic experiments. As you say though, and I hope you don’t mind me paraphrasing, even a few mill into this experiment is a rounding error in the scheme of things.

[bull....]

carly wont make any serious money for years if ever. you only need to look at the share price of cl8 to know this company is rubbish and is valued by the market that way

[percy]

carly wont make any serious money for years if ever. you only need to look at the share price of cl8 to know this company is rubbish and is valued by the market that way

You could be right.
I thought the same in the bookshop when we installed eftpos on a trial basis.Hopeless, we had to get off the phone whenever someone wanted to pay using it.
In the end we took it out as it caused too many issues.
And yes at a later stage we reinstalled it with a separate phone line ,and the result, as we all know is now history.
Whether car subscription works or not we will have to wait and see.
Perhaps coming out of the CoronaVirus may be the perfect time for it to work.? Certainly the way we think and do things has changed.
As a shareholder of Turners I would be very upset if they did not try it.

[bull....]

You could be right.
I thought the same in the bookshop when we installed eftpos on a trial basis.Hopeless, we had to get off the phone whenever someone wanted to pay using it.
In the end we took it out as it caused too many issues.
And yes at a later stage we reinstalled it with a separate phone line ,and the result, as we all know is now history.
Whether car subscription works or not we will have to wait and see.
Perhaps coming out of the CoronaVirus may be the perfect time for it to work.? Certainly the way we think and do things has changed.
As a shareholder of Turners I would be very upset if they did not try it.

sure worth a crack , but people owning there own car is part of the way of life almost an extension of ones self. also i mentioned long ago on here they do not have the financial muscle to take on the big players in this segment if it did take off

[stoploss]

sure worth a crack , but people owning there own car is part of the way of life almost an extension of ones self. also i mentioned long ago on here they do not have the financial muscle to take on the big players in this segment if it did take off
Problem is these days Bull , young people are happy living in the city in apartments. There are plenty of apartment buildings in Wellington being consented with No carparks . Sure some will rent one somewhere else but a lot do not have a car day to day . So this model will be ideal , just thinking about our current situation . We have had 4 cars in the driveway for the 5 weeks, one car has done maybe 50K in that time, bit of a waste of capital .
Carly sounds like a good option , something has to happen to all those rental cars the tourists aren't hiring ......

[Balance]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hertz-is-said-to-be-considering-bankruptcy-what-could-mean-51588279379

Looking grim for car rental companies.

Looks like Extra cheap ex-rentals on the way.

[Baa_Baa]

Will be interesting to see where April 'change of registered person transactions stats end up' (https://opendata-nzta.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/motor-vehicle-register-api/data), then May, a good proxy for industry and private sales.

I reckon it'll drop off the cliff. Some really dire commentary about the new & used car industry coming out of overseas markets, Aus and USA, but so far I've found nothing in NZ.

11531
TRA Heiken Ashi weekly log scale. (highlights price trends better than candle charts)
Overlay "Total change of registered person transactions for passenger cars and vans by month and sale type"

[Balance]

https://www.barrons.com/articles/hertz-is-said-to-be-considering-bankruptcy-what-could-mean-51588279379

Looking grim for car rental companies.

Looks like Extra cheap ex-rentals on the way.

Went by one of the ex-rentals & ex-leasings car dealership in Mt Wellington today - the 'We Are Open' sign has gone up and the yard (previously half-empty) is full of late model used cars.

Let the SALE begin!

[clearasmud]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.

[dreamcatcher]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.

Would expect a huge discount as could not be advertised as 300 careful drivers over last 2 years........

[stoploss]

Saw 2018 45kkm Toyota Levin for 15.5k
Ex rental plus 2018 new shape corolla gx for 20k.
Looks to be up to 20% cheaper.
Going to be a lot of cars on the yard worldwide ....
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/hertzs-stock-falls-after-going-concern-warning-is-issued-with-debt-relief-deadline-approaching-2020-05-12?mod=newsviewer_click

[Timesurfer]

Definitely a buyers market. Turners might pick up a few car yards going under stock as well.

[Balance]

Definitely a buyers market. Turners might pick up a few car yards going under stock as well.

What kind of hit do you estimate TRA will have to take on their current stock, and on the finance deals?

[Timesurfer]

What kind of hit do you estimate TRA will have to take on their current stock, and on the finance deals?

Be interesting, but the US late-model prices have dropped 17 -18%.
I am guessing it will depend on how many yards, rental companies, lease vehicles we have that are in trouble. If they can absorb the bubble for a while it may not have as much impact. Or if enough Kiwis decide it is time to grab an upgrade bargain.

The difficulty being the lag time with imports. We were still unloading boat-fulls of cars during April so car yards will be over-stocked without the rentals etc.

Holden will be pleased they were ahead of the game with their pull out.

[Balance]

Be interesting, but the US late-model prices have dropped 17 -18%.
I am guessing it will depend on how many yards, rental companies, lease vehicles we have that are in trouble. If they can absorb the bubble for a while it may not have as much impact. Or if enough Kiwis decide it is time to grab an upgrade bargain.

The difficulty being the lag time with imports. We were still unloading boat-fulls of cars during April so car yards will be over-stocked without the rentals etc.

Holden will be pleased they were ahead of the game with their pull out.

Just talked with a used car dealer contact - he sold a grand total of 2 cars in the last 2 months. Advertising the existing used cars on his yard at heavily discounted prices - a tsunami of used cars is going to hit the market in a months' time.

Rental car companies are stuck with the contract they have with the car companies (not allowed to sell until certain mileage are reached) which are being re-negotiated. There are several thousand new(ish) cars which are sitting in car-parks which will rust away unless sold.

Big losses ahead, I would say, from car dealers in the year ahead.

[Beagle]

I think it might take a couple of months for car dealers in general to get real with their pricing. I would think by July / August the market will be finding a new lower pricing level.

[Balance]

I think it might take a couple of months for car dealers in general to get real with their pricing. I would think by July / August the market will be finding a new lower pricing level.

The smart dealers (like my contact) are getting rid of stock - at above cost if possible.

The others will still try to haggle until the tsunami of ex-rentals hit them.

[percy]

As we know Turners were ahead of the field clearing stock before the lock down.

[Balance]

As we know Turners were ahead of the field clearing stock before the lock down.

Heaps of stock (bursting at the seams) at the Mt Wellington/Panmure twin site. Big shipment must have arrived from Japan?

[percy]

Heaps of stock (bursting at the seams) at the Mt Wellington/Panmure twin site. Big shipment must have arrived from Japan?

Doubt it as they are sourcing very little from Japan.
Sourcing most stock with in NZ.
Doubt they will have room for all the consignment stock they are being offered.
Expect consignment stock will go from 50% to well over 60%.Maybe even higher in the next few months.70% perhaps.?

[Balance]

Doubt it as they are sourcing very little from Japan.
Sourcing most stock with in NZ.
Doubt they will have room for all the consignment stock they are being offered.
Expect consignment stock will go from 50% to well over 60%.Maybe even higher in the next few months.70% perhaps.?

Should wait for the liquidation sale of ex-rentals and bulk buy to maximise profits.

[percy]

Should wait for the liquidation sale of ex-rentals and bulk buy to maximise profits.

Todd Hunter said July August is the best time to buy a second hand vehicle.
He would be right.

[BlackPeter]

Todd Hunter said July August is the best time to buy a second hand vehicle.
He would be right.

Actually - it was Aaron Saunders who said that when asked by Todd ;):

[percy]

Actually - it was Aaron Saunders who said that when asked by Todd ;):

Was Todd at the ChCh roadshow I attended.

[winner69]

At least saints Aaron and Todd sing from the same hymn book

[percy]

At least saints Aaron and Todd sing from the same hymn book

No surprises there..lol.

[BlackPeter]

Was Todd at the ChCh roadshow I attended.

Oh dear - this must have been so much last year, wasn't it?

[percy]

Oh dear - this must have been so much last year, wasn't it?

Yes August the 7th.

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/353182

Seem to have weathered Covid situation reasonably well going by their update...

• Turners confirms that under Level 2 operating conditions it will be fully open for customers to visit its retail sites. Consistent with Ministry of Health guidelines, all sites will operate with prudent distancing and other health precautions to ensure the safety of both staff and customers. Naturally, the large scale of our sites makes these measures easier to follow than most retail operations.
• Although there were heavy restrictions during Level 4 lockdown Turners were able to sell several hundred vehicles online to essential workers and several hundred more in Level 3 which have all now been delivered. The ability to sell uninspected vehicles online at scale for the first time demonstrates the high trust and awareness of the Turners brand. This was recently recognised through receiving the 2020 Readers Digest Trusted Brand Award as New Zealand’s most trusted used car dealer. All automotive auctions have also been running successfully online over the Level 3 lockdown period.
• All of our businesses have experienced substantial drops in sales during the lockdown, however trading results now completed for the April month reflect trading at levels significantly better than our initial projections made at the commencement of Level 4 lock-down, with three of our four businesses (Oxford Finance, Autosure Insurance and EC Credit Control) trading in profit.

[Balance]

Doubt it as they are sourcing very little from Japan.
Sourcing most stock with in NZ.
Doubt they will have room for all the consignment stock they are being offered.
Expect consignment stock will go from 50% to well over 60%.Maybe even higher in the next few months.70% perhaps.?

Drove by their yard in Mt Wellington today on the way to Sylvia Park - chock full of cars and interesting to observe, many cars with no registration plates so must be Jap imports.

Also drove by Grande Motors by Sylvia Park - never seen so many cars EVER in that huge yard.

And all this before the tsunami of ex-rentals hit the market - been told to expect it in June/July as negotiations are taking place between the rental firms and new car companies to vary the term of their new car supply contract (ie. rental firms are not allowed to sell until the cars are at least 2 years old and mileage done must be at least xx kms).

[percy]

Drove by their yard in Mt Wellington today on the way to Sylvia Park - chock full of cars and interesting to observe, many cars with no registration plates so must be Jap imports.

Also drove by Grande Motors by Sylvia Park - never seen so many cars EVER in that huge yard.

And all this before the tsunami of ex-rentals hit the market - been told to expect it in June/July as negotiations are taking place between the rental firms and new car companies to vary the term of their new car supply contract (ie. rental firms are not allowed to sell until the cars are at least 2 years old and mileage done must be at least xx kms).
Turners will be going "gangbusters."

[Balance]

Turners will be going "gangbusters."

Be fascinating to watch as events unfold!

[percy]

Be fascinating to watch as events unfold!

Certainly will be.....
Previously Turners sold 1 car every 6 minutes,which equated to over 100 cars per day.
Wonder whether they will get up to 200 plus cars per day.?
Imports.Less than 10% of Turners volume comes from imports.

[percy]

Both..............
Plus there will be a lot fewer car sales dealers still in business.

[greater fool]

Drove by their yard in Mt Wellington today on the way to Sylvia Park - chock full of cars and interesting to observe, many cars with no registration plates so must be Jap imports.

Also drove by Grande Motors by Sylvia Park - never seen so many cars EVER in that huge yard.

And all this before the tsunami of ex-rentals hit the market - been told to expect it in June/July as negotiations are taking place between the rental firms and new car companies to vary the term of their new car supply contract (ie. rental firms are not allowed to sell until the cars are at least 2 years old and mileage done must be at least xx kms).

sheesh... if gone to Spooky Park via Penrose Road, you could asked Todd or Aaron for a briefing. :p