TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Balance]

sheesh... if gone to Spooky Park via Penrose Road, you could asked Todd or Aaron for a briefing. :p

Just sharing my observations - no opinion on TRA as I do not follow the company closely like Percy.

As an interested car buyer, I know my next car is going to be a bargain ex-rental ! 👍

[clearasmud]

Only a matter of time before prices rebound.
You may get a year's zero depreciation!

[greater fool]

Just sharing my observations - no opinion on TRA as I do not follow the company closely like Percy.

As an interested car buyer, I know my next car is going to be a bargain ex-rental ! 👍

Just teasing. Must admit I typed "ex-lease car sales" into my favored search engine earlier this week.
Nothing doing yet. Need to wait a month or two.
But, but.. tell me. You used your Gold Hop Card on the wrong bus route; 743 instead of 66?

[Balance]

Just teasing. Must admit I typed "ex-lease car sales" into my favored search engine earlier this week.
Nothing doing yet. Need to wait a month or two.
But, but.. tell me. You used your Gold Hop Card on the wrong bus route; 743 instead of 66?

Haha ... my Merc is still in pristine condition so not needing to use a driver (bus) yet!

[percy]

Haha ... my Merc is still in pristine condition so not needing to use a driver (bus) yet!

With all the cars Turners are selling you, will find it quicker going by bus, as they have their own lane.!
All those cars you have been seeing, will be on the road in front of you, in no time at all.
You may have to consider an electric bike...lol

[Baa_Baa]

Will be interesting to see where April 'change of registered person transactions stats end up' (https://opendata-nzta.opendata.arcgis.com/datasets/motor-vehicle-register-api/data), then May, a good proxy for industry and private sales. I reckon it'll drop off the cliff. Some really dire commentary about the new & used car industry coming out of overseas markets, Aus and USA.

87% drop in April from March for registered person transactions - Trader->Public . 89% drop from January. 72% drop in total registration changes. Should pickup in May now we're back at L2?

11587

[Balance]

87% drop in April from March for registered person transactions - Trader->Public . 89% drop from January. 72% drop in total registration changes. Should pickup in May now we're back at L2?

11587

Numbers are not surprising, given the lockdown.

Being a discretionary deferrable major purchase, it is unlikely imo that numbers are going to pick up in a big hurry until 2021 when there's more certainty about the state of the economy & jobs. It took 5 long years during the GFC for sales to return to pre-GFC levels.

Meanwhile, the sale of ex-rentals has started - just been emailed an offer for a 1 year old 2019 SUV (less than 10,000km) for 30% off the new price. Has counter-offered with 40% off - let's see what happens.

[CD_CHCH]

Sounds like a pretty good deal - is this from a mailing list to selected people or from a publicly accessible website?

[percy]

Numbers are not surprising, given the lockdown.

Being a discretionary deferrable major purchase, it is unlikely imo that numbers are going to pick up in a big hurry until 2021 when there's more certainty about the state of the economy & jobs. It took 5 long years during the GFC for sales to return to pre-GFC levels.

Meanwhile, the sale of ex-rentals has started - just been emailed an offer for a 1 year old 2019 SUV (less than 10,000km) for 30% off the new price. Has counter-offered with 40% off - let's see what happens.

Always put a date and time your offer expires.
Focuses the sellers attention.


Disc.I no longer hold in NZ any shares in the following sectors;Finance [including Banks],Property, Retail [including selling vehicles] , Retirement Villages,or Tourism.
I do hold shares in PGW which I classify as Rural Services,not a retailer.

[Balance]

Sounds like a pretty good deal - is this from a mailing list to selected people or from a publicly accessible website?

Got the email from one of my contact's son who is a car dealer. He specializes in late model European used cars.

[winner69]

Seems Turners have scraped through F20 with NPBT of about $28m ...March year end so no real virus impacts.

Not that good in view of going gangbusters for most of the year. If a $5.6m decline (15%) in profits is the result of going gangbusters I wonder what a not so good year would look like.

Hard to see them beating $28m in F21....wonder how bad it will be.

Has percy already worked that out and wisely exited Turners.

Must have been a hard decision...like losing a family member but heck money is money and you dont want to risk losing it.

My guess for F21 is $$15m to $20m npbt ....pity we have to wait until mid June before we get any indication.

[Beagle]

Always put a date and time your offer expires.
Focuses the sellers attention.


Disc.I no longer hold in NZ any shares in the following sectors;Finance [including Banks],Property, Retail [including selling vehicles] , Retirement Villages,or Tourism.
I do hold shares in PGW which I classify as Rural Services,not a retailer.

Hmmm. I had noticed it has been unusually peaceful in this and the Heartland thread ;)

[percy]

Hmmm. I had noticed it has been unusually peaceful in this and the Heartland thread ;)

Will remain that way,as I can not foresee the future.
All a new experience to me.
I was reading Warren Buffett was feeling the same way,so I am not alone..lol.
I have always tried to invest in companies I understand.At present time there is a great deal I do not understand.

[Beagle]

Historically banks and finance companies (and banks masquerading as finance companies) have not done at all well in a deep recession, which is why I sold HGH some time back and Turners even earlier as in my view they haven't been performing up to my expectations.

This has played out right around the world with banks and finance companies typically seeing a substantial fall in their market value which I am sure you would have noticed with Australian bank shares. So far this is following an expected and rational pattern and is something that is understandable.

Where I get lost, (and I am sure I am not the only one), is the way the market has bounced back from its 23 March low. Plenty of so called experts on CNBC are trying to explain this that the share market typically bottoms about 7-9 months before the economy bottom's out. The market seems to be pricing in a vacine for Covid 19 by around about the end of 2020 or very early 2021. Who says the economy bottom's out in late 2020 or early 2021...personally I think this is quite unlikely and the economic effects cause a deep and protracted recession at best. The other outcome is another great depression.

I know the best and brightest minds in that field from all around the world are working on a vaccine but what if it doesn't happen until much later than what the market is expecting ? What if it doesn't happen at all ? What are the downstream effects of the record amounts of quantitative easing going to be ?

So many unknowns...

[Balance]

https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Holden-Exclusive-Bulk-Purchase/?utm_source=search&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=exclusive_bulk_purchase&utm_term=north_island&utm_content=bulk_purchase&gclid=CjwKCAjw2a32BRBXEiwAUcugiOHQFjc1Qh2DC2MoA4wP w9D8sBvCNdlvynDmJ8cPd7gpVI6YwartghoC5d4QAvD_BwE

Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

This is only the beginning imo.

[Snoopy]

https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Holden-Exclusive-Bulk-Purchase/?utm_source=search&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=exclusive_bulk_purchase&utm_term=north_island&utm_content=bulk_purchase&gclid=CjwKCAjw2a32BRBXEiwAUcugiOHQFjc1Qh2DC2MoA4wP w9D8sBvCNdlvynDmJ8cPd7gpVI6YwartghoC5d4QAvD_BwE

Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

This is only the beginning imo.

None of these deals are for the best selling Holden, the one that makes up 50% of Holden sales, the Colorado ute. So the overall Holden decline might not be as dire as it seems from this sale.

Poor Beagle. Look at the price of the Calais Liftback, just $34k: An 18 grand hit on the supposed new price of $52k. That is a reduction, after just one year of 34%! It isn't looking good for a residual of 40% after three years. On second thoughts poor me. As a Heartland shareholder I will be funding the shortfall in the guaranteed minimum price in three years time when these finance deals on Holdens go sour. I probably won't have to wait three years either. Heartland will need to provision for this in advance. My only hopes is that when these Holdens are on sold, most end up going througjh the Turners Auctions so that I can clip the ticket!

SNOOPY

[Sideshow Bob]

https://ebbettholden.co.nz/Ebbett-Holden-Exclusive-Bulk-Purchase/?utm_source=search&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=exclusive_bulk_purchase&utm_term=north_island&utm_content=bulk_purchase&gclid=CjwKCAjw2a32BRBXEiwAUcugiOHQFjc1Qh2DC2MoA4wP w9D8sBvCNdlvynDmJ8cPd7gpVI6YwartghoC5d4QAvD_BwE

Looks like Ebbett has done an ex-rental & ex-lease deal - 2019 low mileage Holdens at huge discounts.

This is only the beginning imo.

Talked to a Holden dealer in early March. Holden were doing some deals 20-25% off their standard list price to clear their stock. Said had really good sales on them (well at that stage!).

[Beagle]

None of these deals are for the best selling Holden, the one that makes up 50% of Holden sales, the Colorado ute. So the overall Holden decline might not be as dire as it seems from this sale.

Poor Beagle. Look at the price of the Calais Liftback, just $34k: An 18 grand hit on the supposed new price of $52k. That is a reduction, after just one year of 34%! It isn't looking good for a residual of 40% after three years. On second thoughts poor me. As a Heartland shareholder I will be funding the shortfall in the guaranteed minimum price in three years time when these finance deals on Holdens go sour. I probably won't have to wait three years either. Heartland will need to provision for this in advance. My only hopes is that when these Holdens are on sold, most end up going througjh the Turners Auctions so that I can clip the ticket!

SNOOPY

Don't feel sorry for me mate, I have the Calais V which is a very different vehicle to the standard Calais. Normal Calais is a 2 litre engine (mine is 3.6 liter V6) and my upmarket model comes with a vast array of high end specification that's missing on the much lower spec model, (e.g. heads-up display, adaptive cruise control, heated, ventilated and massaging seats, 360 degree surround view camera, adaptive matrix LED headlights, sunroof and so on). In addition the Calais V is an all wheel drive whereas the Calais is front wheel drive. Calais is a nice car, Calais V is a MUCH nicer and vastly better equipped and faster car.

I checked and there are only 2 Calais V's on trade me, both in colours I don't like. A white and a black one. The white one is $44K and is 2018 and the black one is just on $50K, (2019) Mine is in a colour I chose (metallic red) and has not depreciated much from the $54K I paid 15 months ago.

In terms of depreciation most of the depreciation models I have seen that model out a 50% residual suggest a 30% hit in the first year is common, followed by two years at 10% each. Its not logical that it works that way but that sort of pattern is the norm. I think the reason for this is that nobody pays full retail so the first year suggested hit of 30% from full retail is illusionary and is probably only really 15-20% from what the average customer actually pays.

[Balance]

https://www.andrewsimms.co.nz/rentalfleetsellout

Ex-rentals on specials - again, heavily discounted.

And this is before the big boys start - Toyota, Ford & Hyundai.

[Balance]

https://www.andrewsimms.co.nz/rentalfleetsellout

Ex-rentals on specials - again, heavily discounted.

And this is before the big boys start - Toyota, Ford & Hyundai.

Speaking of which :

https://www.hyundai.co.nz/5-day-flash-sale

[toddhunter]

Hi all a couple of articles that might be of interest here...highlighting a few accelerating trends in the automotive industry that were already underway but had not yet been widely adopted. Article from Google and Financial Times.



People are finding comfort in car ownership – aversion to taking public transport
People expect to find car deals – lots of searching for “is the best time to buy a car?”
People want the dealer experience closer to home – the rise of “at home” test drives and video reviews
People want online car buying and at-home delivery
Rise of alternative access models like subscription


https://www.ft.com/content/488d5886-c6af-4e80-a479-36aca26edd1d

https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/consumer-insights/auto-industry-impact-during-coronavirus/

[Balance]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2006/S00030/partial-recovery-of-new-vehicle-registrations-for-may.htm

No surprise - new vehicle registrations down 32% in May.

[Brain]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2006/S00030/partial-recovery-of-new-vehicle-registrations-for-may.htm

No surprise - new vehicle registrations down 32% in May.

I am surprised that registrations only dropped by 32%.

[Balance]

I am surprised that registrations only dropped by 32%.

Probably some carry over from March & April.

[Brain]

Probably some carry over from March & April.

Yes probably. June’s results will be very interesting and probably underpinned by State/local body purchasing. The private sector will all be sitting on their hands waiting for discounts.

[Snoopy]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2006/S00030/partial-recovery-of-new-vehicle-registrations-for-may.htm

No surprise - new vehicle registrations down 32% in May.

Interesting but Turners doesn't sell new cars. Are there any equivalent figures available for used car sales?

SNOOPY

[Balance]

Interesting but Turners doesn't sell new cars. Are there any equivalent figures available for used car sales?

SNOOPY


87% drop in April from March for registered person transactions - Trader->Public . 89% drop from January. 72% drop in total registration changes. Should pickup in May now we're back at L2?

11587

You will have to wait for update from Baa_Baa

[Beagle]

A consumer survey that asked New Zealanders what they would be likely to do with any travel refunds offered a stark warning to the nation's optimism about a speedy recovery.
Interestingly a VERY low reading of only 3% who would put the funds toward a new or used car.
Perhaps people's spending habits have been seriously affected by Covid 19 and they may be far more reluctant to spend on vehicles ? The high percentage of people in this survey who would save the money or pay down debt offers an interesting insight into consumer psychology at present. One wonders if this isn't quite a "sticky" change ?
Are consumers finally waking up to the old adage that when the tide goes out its best not to be swimming naked ?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12336632

[winner69]

Jeez TRA will go over 2 bucks this week

Great recovery ...hope a few on here have made zillions

[bull....]

Jeez TRA will go over 2 bucks this week

Great recovery ...hope a few on here have made zillions

bit of catching up to go to match air and kmd in the recovery tales , might have a huge jump in price if they pay a div

[tommy_d]

Jeez TRA will go over 2 bucks this week

Great recovery ...hope a few on here have made zillions

after hours of reading and crunching numbers (lucky i'm enjoying the geekery as a new hobby!) i bought a tiny position at $1.63 on 29 May. Tiny in dollars (compared to zillions), about 15% of my portfolio, still have 25% in cash so obviously way too conservative and now I can't find many places to buy that don't feel like too many eggs in one basket...

[bull....]

after hours of reading and crunching numbers (lucky i'm enjoying the geekery as a new hobby!) i bought a tiny position at $1.63 on 29 May. Tiny in dollars (compared to zillions), about 15% of my portfolio, still have 25% in cash so obviously way too conservative and now I can't find many places to buy that don't feel like too many eggs in one basket...

your be happy to read this

China's Auto Sales Grow Further in May

June 8 -- China's auto sales in May are estimated to reach 2.14 million units, up 11.7 percent year on year, indicating a growth for two consecutive months in the country's auto market, an industrial association said

https://www.yicaiglobal.com/news/china-auto-sales-grow-further-in-may

so looks like in china auto sales have rebounded quite quickly following there covid lockdown open up

[toddhunter]

Attached in the image are the NZ Used Car Change of Ownership numbers for May from NZTA. Overall down by 17% in May 2020 v May 2019...which does highlight the difference between New Car market and Used Car market.

I have also attached a link to an article in Autofile (an industry publication) which gives a little more drill down into the used import numbers for May https://autofile.co.nz/sales-of-used-imports-bounce-back-

11696

[bull....]

Attached in the image are the NZ Used Car Change of Ownership numbers for May from NZTA. Overall down by 17% in May 2020 v May 2019...which does highlight the difference between New Car market and Used Car market.

I have also attached a link to an article in Autofile (an industry publication) which gives a little more drill down into the used import numbers for May https://autofile.co.nz/sales-of-used-imports-bounce-back-

11696

cheers , whats turners correlation to these NZTA figures?

[toddhunter]

We will give some insight as to how we have performed relative to the market in our FY20 Annual Results Presentation on Thursday morning for April and May. Unfortunately that is all I can say at this point Bull.

[golden city]

Hopefully we can recover and grow further from this turners is an iconic brand in Nz used car market

[Baa_Baa]

Massive 379% rebound in Trader-to-Public vehicle registrations from April low, May number still 22% off January figures (1942 less registrations). That's still quite the rebound though!

11698 11697

[bull....]

ships importing vehicles coming from overseas are well down compared to last year as well. hoping there presentation provides some good insights of how turners correlates in there sales to all the national data.

i traded the stock of the lows but exited last week. but am interested again depending on outlook for there debt as well as sales. I notice someone else is accumulating

[RTM]

ships importing vehicles coming from overseas are well down compared to last year as well. hoping there presentation provides some good insights of how turners correlates in there sales to all the national data.

i traded the stock of the lows but exited last week. but am interested again depending on outlook for there debt as well as sales. I notice someone else is accumulating

Don't forget about all those rentals for sale. Don't need the ships.

[Balance]

Don't forget about all those rentals for sale. Don't need the ships.

Plenty of those starting to make their way into the market.

Interesting that so far, they are selling the late model cars in their fleet - 2018 onwards.

Guess they think that potential buyers of new cars will be attracted by the 20% to 40% discounts (against new car prices) they are advertising the ex-rentals at.

[Beagle]

Definitely starting to impact the market. People need to be careful though. Are you better off getting a 2018-2019 ex rental for ~ 30% off that's been thrashed and potentially abused or negotiate 15%-25% off a brand new / or near new ultra low mileage demo vehicle ? Does the balance of the manufacturers warranty apply to ex rental vehicles given they were used commercially in the first instance ? (Make sure you get the answer to that in writing as a condition of the contract and don't take anything a salesman tells you verbally as sufficient assurance).

I'd go the brand new with a decent negotiated discount route or heavier discount for very low km demo route myself, but each to their own.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Balance;822533]Plenty of those starting to make their way into the market.

Interesting that so far, they are selling the late model cars in their fleet - 2018 onwards.

Most probably committed to buying so many new cars this year.

[RTM]

Couldn't ask for a lot more than this.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354850
Seems interesting that they can reinstate the dividend, whereas SEEKA can not.
So much for the productive sector.

[Beagle]

Yes a solid result. It it will be interesting to watch this one as the stimulus money runs out and the recession starts to bite hard. In the consumer confidence survey out just the other day the number of people who thought now was a good time to buy a major household item was at its lowest level since the depth's of the GFC in 2009.

[RTM]

Yes a solid result. It it will be interesting to watch this one as the stimulus money runs out and the recession starts to bite hard. In the consumer confidence survey out just the other day the number of people who thought now was a good time to buy a major household item was at its lowest level since the depth's of the GFC in 2009.

I think it will be more than just “this one” that will be interesting to watch. And I would certainly include all the retail stocks. Nevertheless...one step at a time. The dividend stream for the most part has remained pretty much on track.

[bull....]

glad i brought back in yesterday but couldnt get all the stock i wanted.
was saying if they did a div price would shoot up.

this from car sales yesterday made me buy back in


There is evidence of a spike in people on the hunt to buy their first car or a second vehicle for the household, courtesy of updated financials from Carsales (https://www.theage.com.au/link/follow-20170101-p553gc) on Wednesday.
At the height of the lockdown, Carsales experienced a 25 per cent drop off in lead volumes. Over the past three weeks the reversal of this retreat has been so marked that volumes are up "strongly" against the corresponding three weeks from last year, according to the company.
Such was the bounce back in demand as social distancing restrictions were eased that inventory levels on the Carsales website began to fall.
The online car marketplace attributes the increased demand, in part, to the public's fear of using public transport.

https://www.theage.com.au/business/companies/trading-updates-track-consumer-fears-on-road-back-from-self-isolation-20200617-p553ld.html

[golden city]

Love turners load up before now is my New hen keep producing eggs in the future

[Beagle]

I think it will be more than just “this one” that will be interesting to watch. And I would certainly include all the retail stocks. Nevertheless...one step at a time. The dividend stream for the most part has remained pretty much on track.

I hear ya but there's quite a difference between buying a $25 warm winter sweatshirt because you need it and updating your car, I am sure you would agree.
Anyway market likes the result and its springing up, wonder which retail stock will be next :D

Maybe Percy likes it to and is back in ?

[bull....]

Love turners load up before now is my New hen keep producing eggs in the future

gross dividend 9% from turners vrs 2% in the bank

[percy]

Well done Turners.
As expected an excellent result,for the year ended 31st March.
The divie is a big surprise.
No I have not brought back in.
Perhaps I will this time next year, should this year's result warrant it.

[Snow Leopard]

Seems to be a good result and the final dividend is bigger than last year's :p.

Disc: Kept the faith.

[Joshuatree]

"2. Leverage the high trust Turners brand
Our scale offers multiple advantages, and trust will be even more important in the new economy. Turners has just received the READERS DIGEST Winner of the Most Trusted Brand in the NZ Used Car Dealer category. We plan to continue our focus on great customer experiences and outcomes and keep promoting and investing in helping people understand the strength in the Turners brand. "
"At beginning of lockdown we modelled out three scenarios (Worst, Likely and Best). Pleasingly we are thus far tracking ABOVE the best case. April and May trading have been significantly better than what we expected as we moved through alert levels faster than originally anticipated. The benefits of laser focus on costs, rent reductions and wage subsidy have been material.1. Accelerate market share growth
"Turners currently maintains ~6% market share of the used car retail transactions and will concentrate on increasing this through optimising existing branch networks, creating new consignment relationships, expanding its retail footprint, and taking advantage of market consolidation." With car dealership to reduce this year"

"We are working on two major data projects which will help us in the area of pricing vehicles and identifying credit risk. Both these projects leverage “off-the-shelf” cloud-based data tools, including machine-learning. The proof of concept results are promising and we know there is a significant opportunity in vehicle purchasing to help identify and limit our “bad buys”, as there is in the finance business with identifying and limiting our “bad lending”. Using leading edge tech to improve efficiencies ETC.




"Car subscription progress has naturally been impeded by Covid-19. We are working directly with Collaborate Corp (CL8.ASX) in Australia to get the subscription platform set up for NZ. We have now made the decision to brand the business under the Turners brand umbrella due to the high trust and strong brand value and recognition attached to the Turners brand. We expect Turners Car Subscription to be up and running in Q2. " Distancing from CL8?


IT really is an impressive result and well worth a read.Punching above their weight atp.

Strong FY20 result for Turners, and Q1 recovery underway (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/354850)

"Based on a FY20 payout of 14.0 cps (fully imputed) to shareholders this represents a gross dividend yield of ​9.8% at an indicative share price of $1.98. The board’s intention at this stage is to continue dividend payouts at the level of the current policy for FY21 which is 60-70% of net profit after tax." But no guidance

"Our traction with customers connecting to ECCC via Xero and MYOB continues to gather momentum with over 420 customers connected now loading debt worth over $3m. We have been working closely with our large corporate customers to help manage their reputational risk with debt collection work during lockdown and we are expecting a significant increase in debt loaded from these customers in the medium term. We have already seen a lift in debt load over the last few weeks from SME customers. "

[peat]

I feel like Basil Fawlty saying 'no one mention the war' (but of course that episode has now been banned hahah)



Reported earnings per share was down 8% to 24.4 cents per share





Shareholder equity decreased to $223m (FY19: $226m)



so actually the result is easy to pick holes in but we are letting them off coz of Covid right?

[Baa_Baa]

The effects of COVID per se, i.e. a couple of months of sales impact, could turn out to be a rounding error on the impact of a sustained deep recession when businesses and punters slam their wallets shut for a few years. Easier and cheaper to get the old dunger maintained than splash out the cash or go into debt for a replacement vehicle.

[Joshuatree]

The worst is ahead of us thats for sure. Hence no guidance,They are optimistic about divis, heres hoping.

[Snow Leopard]

I feel like Basil Fawlty saying 'no one mention the war' (but of course that episode has now been banned hahah)



Reported earnings per share was down 8% to 24.4 cents per share





Shareholder equity decreased to $223m (FY19: $226m)



so actually the result is easy to pick holes in but we are letting them off coz of Covid right?

The episode is back for viewing (https://www.gizmodo.co.uk/2020/06/uktv-fawlty-towers/) and if you read the accounts you can see the why of your above two items of note.

My faith is unshakable and will remain so until it does not. <<mysticism :p

[tommy_d]

after hours of reading and crunching numbers (lucky i'm enjoying the geekery as a new hobby!) i bought a tiny position at $1.63 on 29 May. Tiny in dollars (compared to zillions), about 15% of my portfolio, still have 25% in cash so obviously way too conservative and now I can't find many places to buy that don't feel like too many eggs in one basket...
and here was me a week ago concerned about putting more $$ into TRA at about $1.90 or something...

for full context, they are getting a bit close to my sell price right now. Is there any interest in the reasoning on valuation on some unqualified amateur? Could post something if so, i suspect i would learn a lot from people highlighting the massive gaps in my analysis and errors/risks in my assumptions made. Probably more than anyone would gain from my analysis, so maybe no value in posting anything?

[sb9]

Solid result and great divvy despite lot of gloomy talk from many posters here and under current business scenario.

Good on Todd and team, well done.

[SCOTTY]

Solid result and great divvy despite lot of gloomy talk from many posters here and under current business scenario.

Good on Todd and team, well done.

I like your thinking sb9 :)

[winner69]

Baker told us the TRA share price should be over 3 bucks

Getting there

[bull....]

looks like someone is still accumulating

[bull....]

not long to ex div , better get in it might run away

[sb9]

not long to ex div , better get in it might run away

C'mon bull, we need all ramp up here, keep it going...working so far today.

[bull....]

C'mon bull, we need all ramp up here, keep it going...working so far today.

9% dividend worth a punt i reckon , punting that they can maintain most of this dividend going forward. used car sales are rebounding in most countries quickly therefore any dividend yield near 9% is much better than 2% in the bank.


Jun 17, 2020,01:43pm EDT

Used-Car Sales Rebound First, As Sonic Auto Reopens From Pandemic
Even before the pandemic, many customers with good credit histories who could afford a new vehicle were purchasing used cars and trucks instead

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2020/06/17/used-car-sales-rebound-first-as-sonic-auto-reopens-from-pandemic/#70329e923bbf

[Baa_Baa]

11750
June change of registrations highest for 2020.

[Joshuatree]

Lovely , i can see a bird in flight with those charts:)

[bull....]

Lovely , i can see a bird in flight with those charts:)

breaking out , previous pre covid levels were around 2.90 so still quite under priced compared to those levels

[sb9]

breaking out , previous pre covid levels were around 2.90 so still quite under priced compared to those levels

Last day to get on board to be eligible for juicy divvy, which will be paid in 2 weeks time.

[winner69]

Sneaky car dealers and loan sharks ......preying on the not so informed

That’s what clipping the target is all about ...good for shareholders

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/122051753/carbuyer-warns-of-shocking-broker-fees-on-loans-from-dealerships

[BlackPeter]

Sneaky car dealers and loan sharks ......preying on the not so informed

That’s what clipping the target is all about ...good for shareholders

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/money/122051753/carbuyer-warns-of-shocking-broker-fees-on-loans-from-dealerships

Always surprising that people don't bother to read the contracts they sign and instead prefer to complain later ...

[Davexl]

Last day to get on board to be eligible for juicy divvy, which will be paid in 2 weeks time.

Took my profit from the price run-up to ex Div date - more, almost double what the div was worth (@ 6c for the quarter div). May buy back in prior to the next quarter and enjoy the run-up again...

[Ggcc]

Always surprising that people don't bother to read the contracts they sign and instead prefer to complain later ...
I was thinking the exact same thing. Victim mentality

[winner69]

Always surprising that people don't bother to read the contracts they sign and instead prefer to complain later ...

Not many as clever as us peter

Shows a case for financial literacy to be taught at school

More valuable than some other subjects

[Beagle]

In her partial defence some car dealers are pretty slippery characters and could talk the legs off a chair. Use of phrases like "total peace of mind" when it comes to selling mechanical warranties is par for the course, regardless of the fact that many policies have pretty modest claim limits such that a total engine or gearbox failure might not be fully covered. Sadly far too many people are focused on the vehicle and the weekly payments and a lack of financial literacy means many other details don't get proper consideration. https://www.autosure.co.nz/ Even the homepage says a mechanical breakdown insurance helps safeguard your credit rating...hmmm.

[percy]

I was talking with Jeff Greenslade at a HGH presentation.
He told me with people using their phones could check the finance terms a store like Leemings were offering,compared with HGH's rate.He thought the days of store arranged finance days were numbered..
Sounds a lot of money is to be saved by shopping around for finance, no matter whether it is for a car or a fridge.

[Jaa]

Isn't this why the likes of Afterpay have become so popular? Not sure you can Afterpay a car but probably only a matter of time.

[bull....]

Took my profit from the price run-up to ex Div date - more, almost double what the div was worth (@ 6c for the quarter div). May buy back in prior to the next quarter and enjoy the run-up again...

same sold last load at 2.30 before div , will re -enter at some stage

[bull....]

Car share company Yourdrive hit by Covid cash crisis but 'not closed up yet'

New Zealand car sharing company Yourdrive (https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/113631628/nzs-largest-carsharing-platform-adopts-mobile-phone-digital-key) has been badly hit by a Covid-19 cash crisis but hopes to get back up and running in some form once it pays out all its creditors

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122183644/car-share-company-yourdrive-hit-by-covid-cash-crisis-but-not-closed-up-yet

wonder how turners share car going?

[percy]

Car subscription progress has naturally been impeded by Covid-19. We are working directly with
Collaborate Corp (CL8.ASX) in Australia to get the subscription platform set up for NZ. We have now
made the decision to brand the business under the Turners brand umbrella due to the high trust and
strong brand value and recognition attached to the Turners brand. We expect Turners Car Subscription
to be up and running in Q2.

[sb9]

Well done Todd, first time I've seen in a while someone from top buying on market, 50k quantity @2.19 a piece.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/356699

[RTM]

Well done Todd, first time I've seen in a while someone from top buying on market, 50k quantity @2.19 a piece.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/356699

Thanks......yes, thats encouraging. I'm sure I heard Hoskings one morning saying 'coz people couldn't go on overseas trips etc they were staying home and buying a new car to make them happy. Hope he's right. And that Todd is a good investor.

[Marilyn Munroe]

The long term trend in container traffic is growth.

If Ports Or Auckland want to fill in more of the harbour to capture this growth there will be serious political blowback.

Tauranga faces practical difficulties expanding the Sulphur Point container terminal

The pollies should take a deep breath and stop trying to define the future. All they need to do is establish rail access to Marsden Point. Traffic growth and capacity constraints means container traffic will overflow to Marsden Point .

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[sb9]

Divvy just hit the bank account, very happy :)

[iceman]

Interesting reading https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/retail/turners-car-yard-fight-rolexes-muscle-cars-and-late-night-texts

[RTM]

I hear there is a massive fire @ a car storage facility in Auckland out by airport.
Turners ? More likely rentals I guess.

https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12361725

[biker]

I hear there is a massive fire @ a car storage facility in Auckland out by airport.
Turners ? More likely rentals I guess.

https://nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12361725

Next door to THL. RV Super Centre

[sb9]

ASM in couple of weeks, should see another divvy announcement coming our way of at least 4c I think...

[clearasmud]

ASM in couple of weeks, should see another divvy announcement coming our way of at least 4c I think...
Based on what they said it will be 4c.

[Beagle]

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/big-brand-no-haggle-used-car-operation-takes-over-former-holden-site-in-south-auckland/?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=triple

Interesting new competitor.

[peat]

I saw the Govt saying it was selling its cars through Turners... so gotta be reasonable volume in that lot.

[Arthur]

Product review dot com dot au shows poor ratings for Easyauto123. The majority of the ratings are 81 one star ratings....it might be that the NZ company pays more attention to their customers.

[Davexl]

Second-hand car prices have soared: here’s why

Trend in Australia relevant to NZ also? - Good news...

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/secondhand-car-prices-have-soared-heres-why/news-story/022d55934da6e6f4fbff37531a67cbb6?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+17 +September+2020

[BlackPeter]

Second-hand car prices have soared: here’s why

Trend in Australia relevant to NZ also? - Good news...

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/secondhand-car-prices-have-soared-heres-why/news-story/022d55934da6e6f4fbff37531a67cbb6?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+17 +September+2020

Old news ... Todd told us that months ago.

[sb9]

Second-hand car prices have soared: here’s why

Trend in Australia relevant to NZ also? - Good news...

https://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/motoring/motoring-news/secondhand-car-prices-have-soared-heres-why/news-story/022d55934da6e6f4fbff37531a67cbb6?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Thursday+17 +September+2020

Thanks for that, am expecting good trading update and decent divvy at the upcoming ASM next Wed 23rd.

[sb9]

Could well be $3 at this rate in no time :D

[Joshuatree]

GENERAL: TRA: GENERAL: TRA: Turners Annual Meeting Webcast Information (https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/B13D8C0B1CC34686ED129BAA2533D25F/companyannouncements/showannouncement/nzx/tra?issuercode=tra&number=360197&ispdf=false)

Happening now.S/P $2.50 atm outlook good and div projected to be 17c.

[RTM]

Could well be $3 at this rate in no time :D

I hope so. Rather tired of the ~20% capital loss whilst enjoying a decent dividend. Have quite a few and wasn't prepared to average down when it dropped recently....would have really blown out my portfolio %....although in hindsight maybe I should have got a few.

While I'm happy to hold and enjoy the dividend....difficult to see significant growth ahead.

[sb9]

I hope so. Rather tired of the ~20% capital loss whilst enjoying a decent dividend. Have quite a few and wasn't prepared to average down when it dropped recently....would have really blown out my portfolio %....although in hindsight maybe I should have got a few.

While I'm happy to hold and enjoy the dividend....difficult to see significant growth ahead.

I did double down recently and at current price of $2.50 I'm well and truly in the black plus dividends on top of that, very pleased. I simply followed Todd's on market purchase of shares recently.

[RTM]

I did double down recently and at current price of $2.50 I'm well truly in the black plus dividends on top of that, very pleased. I simply followed Todd's on market purchase of shares recently.

Well done ! That's an excellent story. I did increase on some of our holdings. Just not Turners as had enough. Can't cover them all.

[peat]

He looked a bit stress tested himself.

[Joshuatree]

Looking great and div sustainable, great outlook and covid weathering(sold 600 cars during lockdown). I bought back in @$2.20 cum div.

[sb9]

Some good snippets around business operations from Todd, very encouraging and pleasing. Like their new "Buy safe" concept launched during lockdown.

[pierre]

Excellent - finally back at break even at 255! Projected dividend of 17c gives a gross yield of 9.2% - PDG in today's world.

[blackcap]

I wonder if Percy is back in? Percy, always appreciate your thoughts so if you are lurking what do you think?

[winner69]

Baker et al were always adamant the tra share price should be well over 3 bucks,

[blackcap]

Baker et al were always adamant the tra share price should be well over 3 bucks,

That's what Baker was telling me 4 years ago.

[percy]

I wonder if Percy is back in? Percy, always appreciate your thoughts so if you are lurking what do you think?

I have been out all morning so have just read the agm presentation.
Brilliant.Sorry I sold out.!
Just goes to show how important it is to a business having the directors as big shareholders."The owners eye'.
All the reasons I sold out for have proven to be groundless.I wrote off $5mil for stock write down,$5mil for being in lockdown and $5 mil for loan impairements.
OK 24% of vehicles were sold for a loss,lockdown has cost them,and I expect impairements will increase,however it all looks to be between $5mil and $7mil,ie less than half what I expected.
Strong out look should be pleasing to shareholders,as will be the excellent ongoing divies..
I will have to wait until such time as I get the daughter's property purchase /sale done before I can start to think of reinvesting in TRA.Maybe a good few months away unfortunately.

[Baa_Baa]

Turners car subscription service is now online https://www.turnerssubscription.co.nz

[clearasmud]

I have been out all morning so have just read the agm presentation.
Brilliant.Sorry I sold out.!
Just goes to show how important it is to a business having the directors as big shareholders."The owners eye'.
All the reasons I sold out for have proven to be groundless.I wrote of $5mil for stock write down,$5mil for being in lockdown and $5 mil for loan impairements.
OK 24% of vehicles were sold for a loss,lockdown has cost them,and I expect impairements will increase,however it all looks to be between $5mil and $7mil,ie less than half what I expected.
Strong out look should be pleasing to shareholders,as will be the excellent ongoing divies..
I will have to wait until such time as I get the daughter's property purchase /sale done before I can start to think of reinvesting in TRA.Maybe a good few months away unfortunately.

IGlad you are helping your children Percy.
You are an inspiration to me.
I tripled my holding at under 2 dollars.
Doing better than CDI and HGH my other similar sized holdings.

[Beagle]

Plenty of reasons for shareholders to be happy with today's update.
We have heard anecdotal talk of used car pricing being much stronger, (talk over the Tasman of prices up circa 20-30%).
We have also heard some discussion about how demand is much stronger due to people's reluctance to use public transport during Covid, which is perfectly understandable.
Further, some here have suggested with little to do and all that monetary stimulus people have been better positioned to pay their car loans and Turners certainly alluded to that in their presentation.
Good that they are forecasting a very slight increase on last year's profit and have the confidence to do this so early in the FY21 year.

I'm just a little underwhelmed in the circumstances with the above tailwinds that the forecast increase in profitability is so modest. I suppose in a Covid world and with their modest PE that's a pass mark and its probably a good hold for yield in the mid $2's.

[RTM]

I think COVID will help them....if one had a choice...from a health perspective...would one prefer to jump on a bus or train...or drives one's own car.
This will affect many of the people that buy cars in Turners range. I think anyway.

[crighton100]

LIve in a retirement village [full of 250 old farts with money to spend on cruises,like us].Now with one lockdown after another,many like us are saying no more cruises,to dangeruous to get onto the petrie dishes].So you cant update your home,because thats the villages,so upgrade your car,plenty in our village have done so [because you know we just dont die so young & have to keep up with the times].Have a great one [can tell you, HAVE PUT QUITE A FEW GRAND INTO TRA,it beats the 1.3% the bank was giving to us.Good luck to you all

[clearasmud]

I agree, they have been a 2020 dividend star. I tripled.
No more cruises ay.
Surely not?

[Baa_Baa]

Whose surprised that there’s been no announcement or advertising about going live with their car subscription service? Or have I missed it?

[Goob]

I really want to invest in Turners. Seems management are very aware of the direction to go in, a classic unloved 'boring' Peter Lynch stock that no one cares about but quietly has strong growth. Great value trading very cheap.

Sorry if this has been talked about before, but I just can't bring myself to buy in. Can anyone explain why they have such high debt? I haven't come across a company so levered - is there a particular reason?

Debt/Equity 150+%. Just paid $12.8m in interest costs on $30.3m in unlevered free cash flow (according to my basic calculations). 30% of FCF going towards debt and 42% of unlevered FCF paying off debt.

Anyone that knows more about turners can explain why this is good amount of debt?

[BlackPeter]

I really want to invest in Turners. Seems management are very aware of the direction to go in, a classic unloved 'boring' Peter Lynch stock that no one cares about but quietly has strong growth. Great value trading very cheap.

Sorry if this has been talked about before, but I just can't bring myself to buy in. Can anyone explain why they have such high debt? I haven't come across a company so levered - is there a particular reason?

Debt/Equity 150+%. Just paid $12.8m in interest costs on $30.3m in unlevered free cash flow (according to my basic calculations). 30% of FCF going towards debt and 42% of unlevered FCF paying off debt.

Anyone that knows more about turners can explain why this is good amount of debt?

Easy. Turners is basically a finance company with a plugged on used car sales business. If you compare them with other finance companies, then you will find out that the liabilities don't look that outrageous.

Obviously - Finance companies do come with particular risks (especially given the current situation of the NZ economy). If the future brings e.g. large unemployment, this would hurt them. Up to you how you rate these risks compared to the potential rewards.

Discl: don't hold.

[Beagle]

Whose surprised that there’s been no announcement or advertising about going live with their car subscription service? Or have I missed it?

I think there's an increasing range of car subscription services out there so as you suggest mate, unless they promote it widely it will be difficult to gain meaningful traction.

[crighton100]

I remember working with Bruce Plested many years ago,then he started Mainfreight & his idea was give staff an incentive & look where they are today [what did he do ,he made all his managers shareholders].Reading the latest result of TRA what is interesting they are are going down the same path.As an oldie I can really relate to that,you can see they pay quarterly high dividends & what gets staff motivated more than knowing if they perform well they are going to get nice bonuses in the way of dividends every 3 months.I think this company will do quite well [hope you got onto my other tips MET & PPH earlier this year,at least doubled your money].Be lucky

[sb9]

Another week to go to get hold of divvy before it goes XD next Fri...

[sb9]

Last day for yield chasers to get in to avail upcoming divvy..

[Davexl]

Last day for yield chasers to get in to avail upcoming divvy..


Think I'll buy more after going Ex. If I can find enough to buy...

The combination of strong branding, covid car use and 2nd-hand value for money in a recession is very appealing...

[Beagle]

I bought back in for a modest stake on Tuesday to add some diversification to my portfolio. 9.44% gross yield is very attractive and I believe it is sustainable for the foreseeable future. I see people's reluctance to use public transport continuing, (demand for Turners cars remaining strong) and interest rates headed to zero.

[crighton100]

I see imports have dropped in a big way,which has pushed up the price of cars,so in the short time [next 6 months] the price of cars & margins will go up,can only be good for Turners.See the share over $3 in the next 2 months.Good luck [my bank warned me interest rates for investments will be around half a percent,might as well have your money under the mattress].Stay lucky

[Beagle]

My main trading bank BNZ has dropped its business call account rate to 0.05%, (that's not a typo). So to be clear, my money would need to stay at call for 20 years to earn 1% before tax. The mind boggles. What happens when the OCR goes negative, will they charge us to keep our money "safe" ?

Anyway back to Turners....sorry for the thread digression.

[clearasmud]

Read on the bull that used car prices in Australia up 29.9% year on year.

[blackcap]

What happens when the OCR goes negative, will they charge us to keep our money "safe" ?

.

That's what my broker in the Netherlands does on my on call money. So conceivably yes. That is also why there is this big push ongoing to get rid of cash.

[Beagle]

That's what my broker in the Netherlands does on my on call money. So conceivably yes. That is also why there is this big push ongoing to get rid of cash.

Thanks for sharing.

[Beagle]

On CNBC this morning used car prices up 9% in the U.S. last month after climbing about 5% the month before that. Biggest jump in decades apparently. and it seems this is a common thing in most parts of the world driven by lack of new car supply and a huge increase in demand for personal transportation as compared to public transport, (for obvious reasons). The net result is people are paying the window asking price or very very close to it with very limited ability to negotiate.

Can't import second hand cars into N.Z. now unless they have electronic stability control. Combine these two factors and what a serious tailwind this is for Turners. I wonder if Turners are charging enough for their old clunkers ? This amazing once in a lifetime opportunity to get heaps of extra margin and all Turners are talking about is a very modest uplift in profit in FY21 ? Go figure ?

Are they pulling our leg and there's probably a significant forecast upgrade coming or is this just a very average company not taking advantage of their brand power (if there is much), or are delinquent debtors the hidden problem undercutting what should be much stronger growth this year ?

[sb9]

My pick is that we would see a 3 handle to the sp before Xmas....

[Davexl]

Read on the bull that used car prices in Australia up 29.9% year on year.

https://thebull.com.au/used-car-prices-soar-petrol-prices-creep-higher
(https://thebull.com.au/used-car-prices-soar-petrol-prices-creep-higher/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+13+ October+2020)
Just a little more colour...

[Beagle]

- From that Australian article kindly provided above Data analytics firm, Datium Insights, provides a weekly report on the used vehicle market. In the week to October 9, used motor vehicle prices rose by 0.7 per cent after rising 4.4 per cent in the previous week.

WOW...hope the "experts" running Turners are on top of this and taking advantage. The days of reducing car prices that have been on the car lot for a wile are over...the best move is to put them up !

[MJordan23]

And yet today there are over 1000 cars discounted on the Turners website. Of approx 2800 cars.

[Jaa]

What happened to all those idle rental cars? Surely they are available to the second hand car market at the right price.

[Beagle]

I hear talk they weren't enough to meet demand from customers wanting near new cars. (Don't forget huge supply chain interruption from Covid with new cars).

[clearasmud]

It isn't just that.
The ice car manufacturers need to raise prices to finance their way to an ev future.
Biggest move in a century.

[Baa_Baa]

And still no announcement or advertising (thatI’ve seen) for their new car subscription service. You really have to dig for it on their website to find it, and only 29 cars available! Makes you wonder about their conviction on the Carly enabled subscription service. Probably cannibalises their used car sales, so some strategic conflict to work through? A couple of mill $A not a bad investment to position for car subscription, but you’d think they might have put more effort into promoting it? Quite confusing really

[Beagle]

Maybe a soft launch for the car subscription service with Carly given the current Covid situation in parts of Australia. ? But that doesn't explain the soft launch here...who knows, maybe there's very limited demand at present. Despite level 1 here the idea of sharing cars via a car subscription service...I dunno...good concept but is this the right time with "sharing" for it to get any real traction ?

Tailwinds are so strong in the used car sector I think Turners will do pretty well despite some pretty average execution in certain area's.

[toddhunter]

And still no announcement or advertising (thatI’ve seen) for their new car subscription service. You really have to dig for it on their website to find it, and only 29 cars available! Makes you wonder about their conviction on the Carly enabled subscription service. Probably cannibalises their used car sales, so some strategic conflict to work through? A couple of mill $A not a bad investment to position for car subscription, but you’d think they might have put more effort into promoting it? Quite confusing really

Hi all I see there are a few questions/comments on our subscription service...we are very much in soft launch mode while we iron out any kinks which is a pretty typical approach. Marketing is very PR and digital focused, and ramps up over the next few months as we get users and case studies that we can share with the public.

Advertising dollars are very targeted so quite likely you may not see the ads. As a number have commented on here supply is very short in used cars because of the supply constraints in new car supply chain...so we will build subscribers and stock levels as demand calls for it. We don't really know what the demand will be but it makes sense commercially to increase marketing spend as we get a feel for levels of demand. The great thing about digital is that there are very clear and transparent metrics on cost of customer acquisition, and I think there would be plenty of criticism the other way if we spent a ton of money on tv advertising with little to show for it.

Also subscription isn't really about sharing...when you are subscribed to a car you have 100% exclusive access to it, as opposed to a service like City Hop which is car rental by the hour ... much more of a sharing model. I suppose it could be called long term sharing as the minimum time to subscribe is 30 days. And a reminder each car "deep cleaned" after it is returned of course!

if anyone has further questions happy to answer directly @ todd.hunter@turners.co.nz

[Davexl]

Comment from Aust on re-purposed buying power - good for TRA...

“But you know I think our cautiousness around the consumer has probably been ill-placed. Remember too that Australians as a whole used to spend some $40 billion or so travelling offshore in any given year. That equates to about 12 per cent of retail sales.”

[sb9]

Another mouth watering quarterly divvy just landed in bank a/c, thanks TRA and team :)

[Beagle]

Hi all I see there are a few questions/comments on our subscription service...we are very much in soft launch mode while we iron out any kinks which is a pretty typical approach. Marketing is very PR and digital focused, and ramps up over the next few months as we get users and case studies that we can share with the public.

Advertising dollars are very targeted so quite likely you may not see the ads. As a number have commented on here supply is very short in used cars because of the supply constraints in new car supply chain...so we will build subscribers and stock levels as demand calls for it. We don't really know what the demand will be but it makes sense commercially to increase marketing spend as we get a feel for levels of demand. The great thing about digital is that there are very clear and transparent metrics on cost of customer acquisition, and I think there would be plenty of criticism the other way if we spent a ton of money on tv advertising with little to show for it.

Also subscription isn't really about sharing...when you are subscribed to a car you have 100% exclusive access to it, as opposed to a service like City Hop which is car rental by the hour ... much more of a sharing model. I suppose it could be called long term sharing as the minimum time to subscribe is 30 days. And a reminder each car "deep cleaned" after it is returned of course!

if anyone has further questions happy to answer directly @ todd.hunter@turners.co.nz

Many thanks Todd for coming on here and clarifying things for us. To the best of my knowledge you're the only CEO of a listed company that engages with investors on here so you deserve significant kudos for that. I have a few questions if you'd be so kind to give us some further clarification on at your earliest convenience that would be much appreciated.

1. Firstly on the new requirement that only cars fitted with electronic suability control, (ESC) can now be imported.
Will this be really supportive of the value of older cars in your stock at present that don't have ESC as the newer imports will cost more and there will be a lack of fresh supply of older cars ?

2. There has been much talk of significant increases in the value of used cars overseas due to a range of factors including supply chain interruption on new cars and a big demand increase for personal transportation, (as opposed to public transportation due to risk concerns over Covid). Extract from Barramundi report today is as follows:-

"Carsales (+18% in the quarter) has also benefitted from a surge in
demand for vehicles advertised on its domestic and international websites.
Heightened demand for domestic car travel and an aversion to public
transport has resulted in an increase in first-time car buyers and boosted
vehicle demand".
Given our status in N.Z with Covid being significantly better than most other countries, are you seeing the same thing here with higher demand from people for cars too worried to use public transport and if so do you think that will be an enduring tailwind for Turners for quite some time ?

3. Do you foresee Labour getting back into power as beneficial to Turners ? Higher minimum wage, potential for higher payments to beneficiaries meaning more people can afford cars and those that have them are more easily able to afford the payments ? What about the cost to Turners of these higher wages with the minimum wage going up...would that partially offset that ?

Disc: I bought a few more Turners shares yesterday.

[Beau]

Popping my cherry as Peat mentioned dividend in, looking good.

[IAK]

Another mouth watering quarterly divvy just landed in bank a/c, thanks TRA and team :)
Yep, a jaw dropping $186 in my case lol.

[sb9]

Yep, a jaw dropping $186 in my case lol.

All good, mine is close to half way to a grand...;)

[toddhunter]

Many thanks Todd for coming on here and clarifying things for us. To the best of my knowledge you're the only CEO of a listed company that engages with investors on here so you deserve significant kudos for that. I have a few questions if you'd be so kind to give us some further clarification on at your earliest convenience that would be much appreciated.

1. Firstly on the new requirement that only cars fitted with electronic suability control, (ESC) can now be imported.
Will this be really supportive of the value of older cars in your stock at present that don't have ESC as the newer imports will cost more and there will be a lack of fresh supply of older cars ?

2. There has been much talk of significant increases in the value of used cars overseas due to a range of factors including supply chain interruption on new cars and a big demand increase for personal transportation, (as opposed to public transportation due to risk concerns over Covid). Extract from Barramundi report today is as follows:-

Given our status in N.Z with Covid being significantly better than most other countries, are you seeing the same thing here with higher demand from people for cars too worried to use public transport and if so do you think that will be an enduring tailwind for Turners for quite some time ?

3. Do you foresee Labour getting back into power as beneficial to Turners ? Higher minimum wage, potential for higher payments to beneficiaries meaning more people can afford cars and those that have them are more easily able to afford the payments ? What about the cost to Turners of these higher wages with the minimum wage going up...would that partially offset that ?

Disc: I bought a few more Turners shares yesterday.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Hi Beagle, thanks for the kudos...I appreciate that. I hope the comments I make from time to time are helpful and provide insight. Well done on your share purchase too. Answers to your questions below...

1. Short answer is yes...we didn't stockpile non ESC cars, but vehicle prices have definitely gone up. There have been two large impacts on supply this year....

a) the ESC change which has reduced the pool of available cars that could be imported into NZ.
b) Covid and the impact on new car supply chain which had an impact not just locally but also in Japan and the number of cars available in the auctions over there.

2. Prices for used cars have risen steadily from late May. At this stage, the effect of supply disruption i.e. the new car supply chain interruptions + ESC change mentioned above are more material effects than any shift in demand caused by substitution of public transport with private vehicles.

3. Yes I do. I think this business always goes slightly better in a centre-left government due to the level of support/stimulus that comes with Labour. Beneficiaries are not really our target market but middle NZ families do benefit as well. Most of our customers who have mortgages will have or about to get substantial decreases in their mortgage payments, no overseas travel etc, and the unemployment rate has not peaked like the economists thought it would. We feel confident we will continue to prosper. In regard to the minimum wage it will be an immaterial impact as we have a small number of people on the team at this sort of level.

Thanks
Todd

[Beagle]

Many thanks Todd, much appreciated.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/362158/333740.pdf

[sb9]

Great to see other key management members involve in the presentation y'day to NZSA Investor day.

[Joshuatree]

Half year results on 25th nov.
Had a good experience on friday ,bought a hybrid at Turners, great experience and service. He said they are very busy and it looked it while i was there.

[Davexl]

More encouraging news on Used Car Pricing from Aust. Looking Good for 25th Nov...

Consumer splurge on used cars gives Carsales a COVID boost

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/consumer-splurge-on-used-cars-gives-carsales-a-covid-boost-20201122-p56gt2.html

[sb9]

More encouraging news on Used Car Pricing from Aust. Looking Good for 25th Nov...

Consumer splurge on used cars gives Carsales a COVID boost

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/consumer-splurge-on-used-cars-gives-carsales-a-covid-boost-20201122-p56gt2.html

Should be a good one for TRA as well, finally they may break the $3 mark with good commentary and outlook. Bid side stacking up nicely in anticipation and another juicy quarterly dividend to come our way in new year :t_up:

[Beau]

Should be a good one for TRA as well, finally they may break the $3 mark with good commentary and outlook. Bid side stacking up nicely in anticipation and another juicy quarterly dividend to come our way in new year :t_up:Yes Turners positioning nicely for Wednesday

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Any reason for the bump in share price today? Just people getting in before earnings on Wednesday?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Hi Beagle, thanks for the kudos...I appreciate that. I hope the comments I make from time to time are helpful and provide insight. Well done on your share purchase too. Answers to your questions below...

1. Short answer is yes...we didn't stockpile non ESC cars, but vehicle prices have definitely gone up. There have been two large impacts on supply this year....

a) the ESC change which has reduced the pool of available cars that could be imported into NZ.
b) Covid and the impact on new car supply chain which had an impact not just locally but also in Japan and the number of cars available in the auctions over there.

2. Prices for used cars have risen steadily from late May. At this stage, the effect of supply disruption i.e. the new car supply chain interruptions + ESC change mentioned above are more material effects than any shift in demand caused by substitution of public transport with private vehicles.

3. Yes I do. I think this business always goes slightly better in a centre-left government due to the level of support/stimulus that comes with Labour. Beneficiaries are not really our target market but middle NZ families do benefit as well. Most of our customers who have mortgages will have or about to get substantial decreases in their mortgage payments, no overseas travel etc, and the unemployment rate has not peaked like the economists thought it would. We feel confident we will continue to prosper. In regard to the minimum wage it will be an immaterial impact as we have a small number of people on the team at this sort of level.

Thanks
Todd

Thanks for adding that colour about the business Todd - very helpful.

[Beagle]

Any reason for the bump in share price today? Just people getting in before earnings on Wednesday?

Retail sales data for the Sept quarter out yesterday was stunning. From memory, spending in the motor vehicle sector was up 47% in line with vehicle registrations up 50%...or were those two figures the other way around, I forget and it doesn't really matter. Bottom line, this sector is booming.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Retail sales data for the Sept quarter out yesterday was stunning. From memory, spending in the motor vehicle sector was up 47% in line with vehicle registrations up 50%...or were those two figures the other way around, I forget and it doesn't really matter. Bottom line, this sector is booming.

Thanks for that.

Some nice movement today - It's already breached 2.80 briefly on a couple of trades.

[sb9]

Thanks for that.

Some nice movement today - It's already breached 2.80 briefly on a couple of trades.

Looks like it going settle around 2.80 for now until what gets unveiled tomorrow which will determine further course of sp direction. Well at least as at today's price I've made good losses from my previous lot into this one and handsome more on current lot. Overall pretty stoked!!!

[tommy_d]

Looks like it going settle around 2.80 for now until what gets unveiled tomorrow which will determine further course of sp direction.
looking like being both value and dividend demand for this.
Feel overweight in it already (20% of portfolio, average price $1.63), otherwise i'd be buying more. I can't see anything other than a brief surge post announcement tomorrow.

[sb9]

looking like being both value and dividend demand for this.
Feel overweight in it already (20% of portfolio, average price $1.63), otherwise i'd be buying more. I can't see anything other than a brief surge post announcement tomorrow.

Couldn't agree more, if the outlook commentary is positive it wouldn't be too hard to see it push past $3 mark in short term

[RTM]

looking like being both value and dividend demand for this.
Feel overweight in it already (20% of portfolio, average price $1.63), otherwise i'd be buying more. I can't see anything other than a brief surge post announcement tomorrow.

I thought they said before 9:00...cutting it pretty fine.

[winner69]

I thought they said before 9:00...cutting it pretty fine.

Wendy at the NZX loading announcements today ---- she's always been a bit slow

[Davexl]

Where's the HY21 results announcement? Supposed to be before 9am today (25 Nov 2020)...

[winner69]

Where's the HY21 results announcement? Supposed to be before 9am today (25 Nov 2020)...

Patience my friend - give Wendy time

[Davexl]

Patience my friend - give Wendy time

I'm a bit slow these days too - I'll go finish my coffee...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Turners delivers robust HY21 earnings, despite COVID disruption

• Group revenue 14% lower at $148m

• Reported NPBT increased 26% to $18.7m

• Underlying NPBT down 11% to $13.1m

• Reported NPAT increased 25% to $13.4m

• Used car market proved resilient, rebounding strongly for `high trust’ Turners brand

• Robust annuity earnings from Finance and Insurance validates diversified business model

• Diversified business with ‘high trust’ brands supported robust earnings

• Progress accelerating for transition to digital offering, reducing costs, increasing resilience and enhancing the customer experience

• NPBT guidance for FY21 to be toward the upper end of guidance of $28m to $31m, conditional on no significant further lockdowns

• Projected FY dividend 17.0 cps at mid-point of guidance

Turners Automotive Group (NZX: TRA) delivered robust earnings in HY21 despite a disrupted operating period, with the used car market rebounding after COVID-19 lockdowns, and the Group’s diversified annuity businesses in Finance and Insurance supporting resilience and contributing to strong and sustainable yield.

Todd Hunter, CEO, said: “Given the tumultuous start to the year with a Level 4 COVID-19 lockdown, and high levels of uncertainty, we are delighted with how our team responded to improve our ability to operate in pandemic conditions, as well as improving the resilience of the business to sustain strong yields. Our diversified business, and the quality of our trusted brands, proved robust in the face of market uncertainty, and enabled us to accelerate our strategic plan to lead in the digital space and strengthen our national position in Auto Retail.”

Financial results

Reported NPBT, which is the basis for Turners’ full year guidance, increased 26% to $18.7m with net profit after tax (NPAT) of $13.4m, up 25% on the same period last year. Underlying NPBT was down 11% to $13.1m, with a reconciliation of reported and underlying numbers available on slide 9 of the investor presentation, also published today.

Earnings per share for HY21 were 15.7 cps, up 27% on the previous year. Following the suspension of dividends during lockdown, the Board resumed dividend payments with a Q1 dividend of 4.0 cps. A further 4.0 cps has been declared for Q2, taking HY21 dividends to 8.0 cps. This reflects the dividend policy adopted by the Board last year to pay-out 60-70% of net profit after tax (NPAT).

Grant Baker, Chairman, commented: “Our commitment to delivering strong and sustainable yield to shareholders remains a clear focus for the company. It is pleasing to see the benefits from our strategy of a diversified business showing results and our focus on building a quality business for our team, our customers and our shareholders. Despite some real challenges this year so far, we have not only built further resilience, but made progress with plans to strengthen our position in our key markets in the long term as well as reducing cost and improving our systems and operations. Obviously, market conditions remain somewhat uncertain as the COVID-19 pandemic continues around the world, but this necessity to stress test our business has not been without reward.”

Results by division

All parts of the business contributed to the first half profit, and this diversity means the company is well-placed, assuming no further major COVID-19 disruption, to achieve NPBT toward the upper end of guidance provided at the annual shareholders meeting.

Auto Retail: Revenue $96.1m – 17%, NPBT $7.8m +6%

The Automotive Retail division revenue was 17% lower at $96.1m, reflecting suppressed activity during lockdown, but also a strong rebound since. A focus for the half was on COVID-19 recovery and cost management. Volumes have recovered since, but the main driver of improving profitability in the months since lockdown has been margins. Margin expansion is due to a number of buying initiatives and by tight supply of cars nationally, due to the supply constraints in “New” cars.

Whilst there was a substantial disruption early in the half, the used car market has demonstrated resilience, not just rebounding after lockdowns, but through the economic cycle as customers consider lower cost options. The company continues to benefit from a diverse geographic footprint (which was well demonstrated during the recent partial lockdown in Auckland.) Turners diversified sources of supply and trusted brand position is proving highly valuable in times of uncertainty.

Finance: Revenue $23.2m +2%, NPBT $7.6m +18%

The Finance division contributed strongly to the first half, with annuity earnings helping during lockdown. Finance sales also showed a solid rebound following lockdown. Revenue for HY21 was $23.2m, up 2% on last year. NPBT was $7.6m up 18% of the year prior, as Oxford benefitted from higher margins, lower accruals and greater cost efficiencies.

Remarkably, less than 70 customers (0.29% of customers) are currently in hardship status. The division’s focus on high quality borrowers has seen record low levels of arrears reflecting the risk-pricing strategy over recent years, and the business is well-placed for the second half of the year to continue its expansion. Oxford has built a material buffer in arrears provisioning to allow for any unemployment increase in future months.

During the period, premium risk tier lending increased to over 50% as shown in the presentation also released to the market today. Finance continues to be a strong performer within the group, and it is notable that Finance’s profit contribution over recent years has grown significantly, from 24% in 1H19 to 33% in 1H21.

Insurance: Revenue $21.1m -5%, NPBT $4.5m +74%

Insurance revenue decreased 5% to $21.1m due to the impact of lockdowns. However, NPBT was up 74% to $4.5m on higher margins, reducing overhead costs and the finish of amortising the acquired premium portfolio as part of the Autosure acquisition from Vero in 2017.

The division contributed to the overall result and cashflow via annuity earnings during lockdown, with premiums taken up front. Progress was made on building out distribution, as well as continued investment in digital and system integration. As with Finance, the division continues to focus on quality, as was evidenced with combined claims ratios improving, from 69% in 1H19 to 59% in 1H21 and AM Best upgrading its credit rating and financial strength rating for Insurance.

Credit Management: Revenue $7.0m -29%, NPBT $3.0m -17%

Credit management revenue decreased 29% to $7.0m, and the impact of COVID-19 was visible in market-wide conservatism with respect to debt collection actions during the first phase of the pandemic. NPBT was also down 17% to $3.0m

The division remains an important part of the diversification strategy, offering a hedge for any potential cyclical downturn ahead. The division has been successful in managing cost in a reduced debt load environment and maintains strong relationships with debt lenders. The business expects to load more debt over coming months, following a hiatus period during and post lockdown, during which lenders prioritized managing reputation over collections. A similar pattern was experienced post the GFC, before a busy collection period began.

A transition to a digital-based business is continuing. The division is working closely with referrers to manage and improve customer outcomes as we go forward into an environment where bad debts are likely to increase and debt collection services will see increasing demand.

Digital strategy bearing fruit

Right across the Group, the expansion of the digital strategy over several years is bearing fruit and contributed greatly during the period under review. This was accelerated as part of the COVID-19 response where no or low contact transactions and customer service was required. COVID-19 added useful impetus to momentum within the business to move to digital platforms and lower-cost, easy-to-use self-provisioning models for customers. We see an opportunity to achieve market leadership in digital across all business sectors, further increasing resilience, lowering cost, and improving customer experience.

Outlook and Guidance

Although the strong market rebound post-lockdowns has been pleasing, the business remains focused on agility and the ability to manage uncertainty while the COVID-19 pandemic remains rife throughout the world. The stress test that COVID-19 provided has proved the benefits of the Group’s strategy of diversification, digital leadership, national distribution and the development of trusted brands.

For every month since June, group operating profit has been well above levels in FY20. Meanwhile, a number of reductions to the fixed cost base will deliver ongoing benefits over the years to come.
 
In terms of Q321, key themes have continued, including:

• Auto: continued supply constraints, better-than-expected demand contributing to margin improvement on owned inventory,

• Finance: strong new lending, with arrears at historic lows,

• Insurance: strong sales of new policies, and claims ratios improving; and

• Credit Management: debt loads to increase as corporate customers reinitiate collections actions

Building on continued robust performance thus far in Q321, the Board expects to achieve toward the upper end of its FY21 NPBT guidance of $28m to $31m, as supplied to the market at September’s ASM. This assumes that there are no significant further lockdowns in New Zealand in FY21. At the mid-point of the guidance range, this could yield a full year dividend of 17.0 cps, according to the Board’s dividend policy.

[sb9]

Numbers look pretty good, dividend in tact and more importantly NPBT for FY21 revised to be at the upper end of $28m to $31m. Onwards and upwards to $3+...

[Beagle]

Very solid result. Difference between reported profit and underlying profit is mainly the ~ $5m Covid subsidy. (Please...lets not go there again on the whole should companies repay this endless moral debate)

• Overall restructure costs relating to people and
property will reduce FY22 fixed cost base by $4m+
• Operating profit results for each month June to
October have tracked well ahead of same month
for FY20

Hmmm - I really like the above cost control measures for FY22 in light of the very strong operating environment. Its really refreshing to see a disciplined and strong cost control approach being taken. A lot to like in this result and in the foreseeable outlook in the years ahead. (Further comment to come when I have fully digested the presentation materials).
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/363850/335937.pdf

[LaserEyeKiwi]

unless I'm mistaken, looks like company is trading at less than 10x projected forward earnings, is that right??

[Beagle]

Top end of year end guidance at $31m before tax, assuming full tax is paid at 28% = $22.32m = 26 cps. Forward PE at $2.82 = 10.8

[RTM]

This is very positive as well....straight on the bottom line in many ways.

"Remarkably, less than 70 customers (0.29% of customers) are currently in
hardship status. The division's focus on high quality borrowers has seen
record low levels of arrears reflecting the risk-pricing strategy over recent
years, and the business is well-placed for the second half of the year to
continue its expansion. Oxford has built a material buffer in arrears
provisioning to allow for any unemployment increase in future months."

[Habits]

First half npbt 18m full year projection 31m therefore approx 13m for 2nd half... i would have thought that summer months would be far more profitable for them

[winner69]

Top end of year end guidance at $31m before tax, assuming full tax is paid at 28% = $22.32m = 26 cps. Forward PE at $2.82 = 10.8

SO around $3 for a no growth company is about right

NPBT last 4 years - 31.1m / 29.0m / 29.1m /say 30.0m in F21 (Turners preferred profit figure)

Seems to me that TRA is a stock just for the dividend (even more so if one buys at the lows of the cycle) and trading the inevitable swings in the share price according to market sentiment of the day

What gets me is that the hype over the last few years never seems to impact the bottome line -- lots of hype --> flat bottome line

[winner69]

First half npbt 18m full year projection 31m therefore approx 13m for 2nd half... i would have thought that summer months would be far more profitable for them


That says H2 NPBT will be about $12.3m (at $31.0m) which is 14% DOWN on pcp

Doesn't seem to make sense

Think I have used the correct NPBT numbers - they have so many variants eh

[sb9]

That says H2 NPBT will be about $12.3m (at $31.0m) which is 14% DOWN on pcp

Doesn't seem to make sense

Think I have used the correct NPBT numbers - they have so many variants eh

Don't overanalyse winner, its all about yield for a foreseeable future :p

[winner69]

Don't overanalyse winner, its all bout yield for a foreseeable future :p


Yep I know

Want a 5% gross yield ...punters could pay close to 5 bucks for that

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yep I know

A 5% gross yield ...punters could pay close to 5 bucks for that

Guidance is 17c dividend - so 6% gross yield...?

[sb9]

Webinar done and dusted via ZOOM. Punters seem very happy overall as not many questions except from one guy who had bunch of questions, not difficult ones.

[Beagle]

17 cps fully imputed = 17 / 0.72 =23.61 cps gross. 23.61 / 290 = 8.1% Gross Yield

Disc: I topped up a few more this morning. I am very pleased to see them stripping $4m+ from overhead costs. Augers extremely well for the future and I think its highly likely that yield is sustainable going forward.

[winner69]

17 cps fully imputed = 17 / 0.72 =23.61 cps gross. 23.61 / 290 = 8.1% Gross Yield

Disc: I topped up a few more this morning. I am very pleased to see them stripping $4m+ from overhead costs. Augers extremely well for the future and I think its highly likely that yield is sustainable going forward.

Not just sustainable .....but as the slide in their presentation shows A GROWING DIVIDEND

[Beagle]

Yes I think that's fair comment. Stripping $4m+ from overhead from FY22 onwards along with the trading outlook provides solid encouragement for profit growth in FY22 and beyond.
I see they are digitizing their loan application processes. I haven't had time to read the whole presentation yet. Have they mentioned the fintech buzzword in there somewhere ;)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Is there a replay of the Zoom webcast available anywhere?

[peat]

finding resistance at these levels after good gains in the last six months and returning to pre-covid levels.
note this level was initial support back in early and mid 2018 until it succumbed and broke down at the end of that year.
declining volumes a negative also.
12114

[winner69]

finding resistance at these levels after good gains in the last six months and returning to pre-covid levels.
note this level was initial support back in early and mid 2018 until it succumbed and broke down at the end of that year.
declining volumes a negative also.
12114

Baker and his mates were always on about how the share price should be over 3 bucks

Maybe they were right ...eventually


[SIZE=1PS .....chart shape a bit like HLG [/SIZE]

[LaserEyeKiwi]

finding resistance at these levels after good gains in the last six months and returning to pre-covid levels.
note this level was initial support back in early and mid 2018 until it succumbed and broke down at the end of that year.
declining volumes a negative also.
12114

I would be ignoring technical analysis for dividend stocks in the new long term near-zero interest rate environment. It's a whole new ball game now. And with companies like TRA which have both high dividend and growth I wouldn't be touching TA with the proverbial 10 foot barge pole.

[Habits]

finding resistance at these levels after good gains in the last six months and returning to pre-covid levels.
note this level was initial support back in early and mid 2018 until it succumbed and broke down at the end of that year.
declining volumes a negative also.
12114

Notice there was an uptrend during 2019 that got covided... am looking forward to a healthy pre Xmas dividend.... a low share price of 1.20 earlier in the year, what were investors thinking??

[Davexl]

Notice there was an uptrend during 2019 that got covided... am looking forward to a healthy pre Xmas dividend.... a low share price of 1.20 earlier in the year, what were investors thinking??


Thinks Turners is ex Div in mid-January. Please correct me if I'm wrong...

[peat]

Notice there was an uptrend during 2019 that got covided...

Kind of looks corrective to me mate sorry..... i.e its a temporary uptrend in defiance of the main trend (down) .

I do hold though so am hoping we are now impulsive (opposite of corrective) , it does look that way more now if my eye can judge these things.

[tommy_d]

Notice there was an uptrend during 2019 that got covided... am looking forward to a healthy pre Xmas dividend.... a low share price of 1.20 earlier in the year, what were investors thinking??
in March when the share price touched $1.13 we were in the midst of a global crash in share prices, and many commentators were suggesting that the crash was going to continue. You could have bought almost anything about that date and done well, but hindsight is easy and the response by governments, and subsequent impacts on markets weren't obvious.

My favourite share of comparison is SKL, mostly cos a mate told me to put $10k into it at $1.60, he bought quite a lot more than he recommended that i invest, and got it at $1.53. I bought nil due to a distrust of some of his theory. Yeah. Oops.

[BlackPeter]

I would be ignoring technical analysis for dividend stocks in the new long term near-zero interest rate environment. It's a whole new ball game now. And with companies like TRA which have both high dividend and growth I wouldn't be touching TA with the proverbial 10 foot barge pole.

TA is just one investment tool which can help you to identify trends and trend changes. It can't predict unforeseeable events (nothing can :):, but it can help you to see and understand what the market is seeing at a certain point in time. In parts it provides as well self full filling prophecies given that other investors are using this tool as well and coming to the same conclusions.

Any tool able to predict the future with a likelihood better than random is useful, even if this said tool is part of the causes for the future development.

I don't see how a low interest rate environment would change the usefulness of TA ... it is just one of the factors the market will consider when pricing a share.

Up to you whether you choose to use this tool or whether you prefer to fly blind ... but no reason to rubbish it.

[peat]

I don't see how a low interest rate environment would change the usefulness of TA ... it is just one of the factors the market will consider when pricing a share.

Up to you whether you choose to use this tool or whether you prefer to fly blind ... but no reason to rubbish it.

New posters on this site dont know excrement.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

New posters on this site dont know excrement.

Wow, what a charming person.

[winner69]

TA is just one investment tool which can help you to identify trends and trend changes. It can't predict unforeseeable events (nothing can :):, but it can help you to see and understand what the market is seeing at a certain point in time. In parts it provides as well self full filling prophecies given that other investors are using this tool as well and coming to the same conclusions.

Any tool able to predict the future with a likelihood better than random is useful, even if this said tool is part of the causes for the future development.

I don't see how a low interest rate environment would change the usefulness of TA ... it is just one of the factors the market will consider when pricing a share.

Up to you whether you choose to use this tool or whether you prefer to fly blind ... but no reason to rubbish it.

TA still relevant in low interest rate environment ....even if yield seeking seems to dominant

TA will give early signals when share prices have got too stretched (and seeking yield for the sake of yield has become a folly) and thw wise ones start abandoning the market.

[winner69]

Doesn’t look like share price going to push through 3 bucks any time soon.

[sb9]

Doesn’t look like share price going to push through 3 bucks any time soon.

Salt may still be offloading and as long they're in play it may take little while yet to push past $3...

[peat]

Wow, what a charming person.

well you spoke loudly and confidently about a subject that you are clearly ignorant about so yeh its a forum I say what I think without regard to charming you.

and yeh I do get ratty because there are so many people who bag TA when they dont know excrement and have probably spent 5 minutes reading about it on Wikipedia
even the venerable Beagle is prone to this and I bite at him too.

I'm very happy for people to ask questions about anything and I will respond nicely but if you just bag my 40 years of experience in this area in your 56th post I will call you out.

[peat]

Doesn’t look like share price going to push through 3 bucks any time soon.

exactly what i said based on TA.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

well you spoke loudly and confidently about a subject that you are clearly ignorant about so yeh its a forum I say what I think without regard to charming you.

and yeh I do get ratty because there are so many people who bag TA when they dont know excrement and have probably spent 5 minutes reading about it on Wikipedia
even the venerable Beagle is prone to this and I bite at him too.

I'm very happy for people to ask questions about anything and I will respond nicely but if you just bag my 40 years of experience in this area in your 56th post I will call you out.

I've been investing as a full time profession for 15 years - in my experience Fundamental Analysis is the only guarantee of success, and I have seen people relying on TA been made fools of over and over again.

[Habits]

exactly what i said based on TA.

3 bucks is also a psychological threshold that investors may feel is too high esp after a big advance. That might have something to do with the pullback as opposed to innate consciousness of a previous resistance level. I dont know you take your own TA advice Peat if you're a TRA share holder??

[winner69]

3 bucks is also a psychological threshold that investors may feel is too high esp after a big advance. That might have something to do with the pullback as opposed to innate consciousness of a previous resistance level. I dont know you take your own TA advice Peat if you're a TRA share holder??

But it’s been way over 3 bucks before ...been there done that ....if anything 4 bucks would be a psychological threshold

And Baker et al said a few years ago they worth lots more than 3 bucks and company done well since.

[peat]

3 bucks is also a psychological threshold that investors may feel is too high esp after a big advance. That might have something to do with the pullback as opposed to innate consciousness of a previous resistance level. I dont know you take your own TA advice Peat if you're a TRA share holder??

the psych threshold is not opposed to the innate consc. resistance level. mate
it is it.
people will remember they should 've sold when it was that price but they doggedly hung on and now they can escape pain free. I reckon its a powerful force in markets.

I'm not buying any more ....

[Snow Leopard]

I've been investing as a full time profession for 15 years - in my experience Fundamental Analysis is the only guarantee of success, and I have seen people relying on TA been made fools of over and over again.

It seems that after 15 years you still have a lot you could learn if you were open minded and willing.

I say this has someone who has seen more than any Snow Leopard should have in one lifetime, and is still gaining knowledge.

[peat]

I've been investing as a full time profession for 15 years - in my experience Fundamental Analysis is the only guarantee of success, and I have seen people relying on TA been made fools of over and over again.

still showing your ignorance (or maybe you're just a bit loose in what you write I dunno ) There are no guarantees ! FA included - just keep buying that deep value - refer Phaedrus thread

And the thing is with TA is that you know when you are wrong. and then you're out. So yes the market makes fools of us all at times. Thats why we have portfolio's and risk/reward ratio's (esp for forex ) etc etc.

So I think what this forum seems to have no disagreement with is that a combination of the two can work pretty well. But after 15 years if you dont think the price action is telling you anything then hey who am I to tell you otherwise.

( And in any case TA is multi-faceted and I hate it being genericised )

[Beagle]

TA a very valuable tool. Ignore it at your peril I reckon and speaking of this I see a nice uptrend has developed confirming my fundamental analysis that the tide has turned and is coming in for Turners for the foreseeable future.
When TA and FA really line up I get GA (greedy as), because there's almost always decent share price appreciation that follows.

Hey Winner - Directors always thought the shares were worth around $3.20 - $3.50 and it would appear they are right...just got their timing wrong by a few years eh ;)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The latest Retail NZ Sales Index, shows that spending through November remained strong, and that total spending since March is now ahead of last year.
“The Retail NZ Sales Index for November reports that spending through the month was around 25.7 per cent higher than last year, and that total spending since March is now 3.4 per cent higher than for the same nine months last year,”

[MauroNZ]

Also Geneva sees a car sales increase:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123567488/geneva-finance-doubles-profit-as-car-demand-during-covid-beats-expectations

[Habits]

TA a very valuable tool. Ignore it at your peril I reckon and speaking of this I see a nice uptrend has developed confirming my fundamental analysis that the tide has turned and is coming in for Turners for the foreseeable future.
When TA and FA really line up I get GA (greedy as), because there's almost always decent share price appreciation that follow
Hi Beagle,
I agree and I find TA confirms my gut feel but is just one thing to look at. And is so easy now through yahoo finance, in the 80s I remember plotting charts by hand lol

[percy]

Hi Beagle,
I agree and I find TA confirms my gut feel but is just one thing to look at. And is so easy now through yahoo finance, in the 80s I remember plotting charts by hand lol

I did too.30 day moving average was hard to work out so I did Friday's close as being 5 days average, then ten weeks gave me 50 day moving average,which made things easier.Did my charts every Saturday morning.Would never have managed an EMA.
Trouble was too often getting false signals because of low volume of trades.
I think today with so many more people following TA, it has become more self fullfilling.

[winner69]

Does TA give any indication the share price is going to get back to $3.80 .... like it was back in early 2017

Jeez, that's a long long time ago and recent punters would say unbelievable

[Baa_Baa]

I did too.30 day moving average was hard to work out so I did Friday's close as being 5 days average, then ten weeks gave me 50 day moving average,which made things easier.Did my charts every Saturday morning.Would never have managed an EMA.
Trouble was too often getting false signals because of low volume of trades.
I think today with so many more people following TA, it has become more self fullfilling.

Try this percy, hopefully it works, a TRA Yahoo chart with the 30 and 50 EMA's (https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRA.NZ/chart?p=TRA.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGl jaXR5IjoxLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiO jEuODIxODI5ODU1NTM3NzIwOCwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZ vbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3Nza GFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGV kIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhd GlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6ImxpbmVhciI sInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjoxLCJkaXNwb GF5IjoiVFJBLk5aIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmR leCI6MCwieUF4aXMiOnsibmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicG9zaXRpb 24iOm51bGx9LCJ5YXhpc0xIUyI6W10sInlheGlzUkhTIjpbImN oYXJ0Iiwi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiXX19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjpud WxsLCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp 0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsI nN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJ ldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic 3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sInN5bWJvbHMiOlt 7InN5bWJvbCI6IlRSQS5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJze W1ib2wiOiJUUkEuTloiLCJxdW90ZVR5cGUiOiJFUVVJVFkiLCJ leGNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiUGFjaWZpYy9BdWNrbGFuZCJ9L CJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1 lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6bnVsbH1dLCJzdHVkaWVzI jp7IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciI sImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIiwiZGlzc GxheSI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXA gVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI2ZmM zMzYSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ 3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiL CJwYW5lbE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWHigIwgKDMwLEM sZW1hLDApIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb 2QiOiIzMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoiZXhwb25 lbnRpYWwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDMwL EMsZW1hLDApIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgzMCxDLGV tYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwY W5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWU iOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWHigIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDApIjp7I nR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOjUwLCJGaWV sZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc 2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImR pc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0c HV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiM0MzAwYWMifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCI sInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19f Q--).

[Baa_Baa]

Does TA give any indication the share price is going to get back to $3.80 .... like it was back in early 2017

Jeez, that's a long long time ago and recent punters would say unbelievable

The strong uptrend is encouraging though it's right on technical resistance now, so to answer the question, if it breaks up here then the journey to previous glory continues, until it doesn't. Ride the winners until they aren't.

[percy]

Try this percy, hopefully it works, a TRA Yahoo chart with the 30 and 50 EMA's (https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/TRA.NZ/chart?p=TRA.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6ImRheSIsInBlcmlvZGl jaXR5IjoxLCJ0aW1lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwiY2FuZGxlV2lkdGgiO jEuODIxODI5ODU1NTM3NzIwOCwiZmxpcHBlZCI6ZmFsc2UsInZ vbHVtZVVuZGVybGF5Ijp0cnVlLCJhZGoiOnRydWUsImNyb3Nza GFpciI6dHJ1ZSwiY2hhcnRUeXBlIjoibGluZSIsImV4dGVuZGV kIjpmYWxzZSwibWFya2V0U2Vzc2lvbnMiOnt9LCJhZ2dyZWdhd GlvblR5cGUiOiJvaGxjIiwiY2hhcnRTY2FsZSI6ImxpbmVhciI sInBhbmVscyI6eyJjaGFydCI6eyJwZXJjZW50IjoxLCJkaXNwb GF5IjoiVFJBLk5aIiwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJpbmR leCI6MCwieUF4aXMiOnsibmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicG9zaXRpb 24iOm51bGx9LCJ5YXhpc0xIUyI6W10sInlheGlzUkhTIjpbImN oYXJ0Iiwi4oCMdm9sIHVuZHLigIwiXX19LCJzZXRTcGFuIjpud WxsLCJsaW5lV2lkdGgiOjIsInN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdW5kIjp 0cnVlLCJldmVudHMiOnRydWUsImNvbG9yIjoiIzAwODFmMiIsI nN0cmlwZWRCYWNrZ3JvdWQiOnRydWUsInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJ ldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3Jwb3JhdGUiOnsiZGl2cyI6dHJ1ZSwic 3BsaXRzIjp0cnVlfSwic2lnRGV2Ijp7fX0sInN5bWJvbHMiOlt 7InN5bWJvbCI6IlRSQS5OWiIsInN5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJze W1ib2wiOiJUUkEuTloiLCJxdW90ZVR5cGUiOiJFUVVJVFkiLCJ leGNoYW5nZVRpbWVab25lIjoiUGFjaWZpYy9BdWNrbGFuZCJ9L CJwZXJpb2RpY2l0eSI6MSwiaW50ZXJ2YWwiOiJkYXkiLCJ0aW1 lVW5pdCI6bnVsbCwic2V0U3BhbiI6bnVsbH1dLCJzdHVkaWVzI jp7IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciI sImlucHV0cyI6eyJpZCI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIiwiZGlzc GxheSI6IuKAjHZvbCB1bmRy4oCMIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXA gVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24gVm9sdW1lIjoiI2ZmM zMzYSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ 3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQiL CJwYW5lbE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWHigIwgKDMwLEM sZW1hLDApIjp7InR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb 2QiOiIzMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoiZXhwb25 lbnRpYWwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDMwL EMsZW1hLDApIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgzMCxDLGV tYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXRzIjp7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwY W5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0IiwicGFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWU iOiJjaGFydCJ9fSwi4oCMbWHigIwgKDUwLEMsZW1hLDApIjp7I nR5cGUiOiJtYSIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJQZXJpb2QiOjUwLCJGaWV sZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc 2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImR pc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0c HV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiM0MzAwYWMifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCI sInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX19f Q--).
We did not have Yahoo in the 80s or 90s.
Yes I use Yahoo charts.Fantastic with all the indicators too.
So simple that is why so many people use it, and why I said TA is often becoming self full filling.
Works great until it does not work. The best chart was the chart showing the growth rate of a turkey being fattened up for thanksgiving.
Yes you are right, a fabulous uptrend until the turkey had his head removed.So some times when putting your faith in TA it pays to make sure you too are not a turkey..lol.

[Baa_Baa]

We did not have Yahoo in the 80s or 90s.
Yes I use Yahoo charts.Fantastic with all the indicators too.
So simple that is why so many people use it, and why I said TA is often becoming self full filling.
Works great until it does not work. The best chart was the chart showing the growth rate of a turkey being fattened up for thanksgiving.
Yes you are right, a fabulous uptrend until the turkey had his head removed.So some times when putting your faith in TA it pays to make sure you too are not a turkey..lol.

So true, only a Turkey would continue to hold if it plunged below those two MA. TRA is a volatile share, best to treat as a momentum position, ride the upside and avoid the downside. Imo of course.

Glth
BAA

[percy]

So true, only a Turkey would continue to hold if it plunged below those two MA. TRA is a volatile share, best to treat as a momentum position, ride the upside and avoid the downside. Imo of course.

Glth
BAA

I do not really have an opinion on Turners at present,other than to say directors/management ,with such large holdings, have managed the business through Covid 19 extremely well.No stock right downs, and impairments minimal.
I think the market would welcome them repaying the Govt hand outs.Would certainly add value to their trusted brand name.
Hopefully I will be in a position to buy back into Turners early to mid next year,depending on how the daughter's house buying goes.

[Beagle]

Has been quietly building momentum and I have been quietly building a bigger position. Very strong tailwinds in this sector. Gross yield of 8% and still trades cum dividend.
What's the point of having cash in the bank at less than 1% ?
Fundamentally this looks very sound and the chart looks highly attractive too.

[Davexl]

Has been quietly building momentum and I have been quietly building a bigger position. Very strong tailwinds in this sector. Gross yield of 8% and still trades cum dividend.
What's the point of having cash in the bank at less than 1% ?
Fundamentally this looks very sound and the chart looks highly attractive too.

Like Turners, have a bunch, suspect most of the uptrend is in anticipation of the quarterly divvy in Mid Jan, but the sales momentum certainly helps...
Thanks Percy for suggesting Turners as such a great investment.

[sb9]

Like Turners, have a bunch, suspect most of the uptrend is in anticipation of the quarterly divvy in Mid Jan, but the sales momentum certainly helps...
Thanks Percy for suggesting Turners as such a great investment.

Yes, and nice finish for the week at 3.01, it’s been long time between drinks and a 3 handle.

[Beagle]

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Hi Beagle, thanks for the kudos...I appreciate that. I hope the comments I make from time to time are helpful and provide insight. Well done on your share purchase too. Answers to your questions below...

1. Short answer is yes...we didn't stockpile non ESC cars, but vehicle prices have definitely gone up. There have been two large impacts on supply this year....

a) the ESC change which has reduced the pool of available cars that could be imported into NZ.
b) Covid and the impact on new car supply chain which had an impact not just locally but also in Japan and the number of cars available in the auctions over there.

2. Prices for used cars have risen steadily from late May. At this stage, the effect of supply disruption i.e. the new car supply chain interruptions + ESC change mentioned above are more material effects than any shift in demand caused by substitution of public transport with private vehicles.

3. Yes I do. I think this business always goes slightly better in a centre-left government due to the level of support/stimulus that comes with Labour. Beneficiaries are not really our target market but middle NZ families do benefit as well. Most of our customers who have mortgages will have or about to get substantial decreases in their mortgage payments, no overseas travel etc, and the unemployment rate has not peaked like the economists thought it would. We feel confident we will continue to prosper. In regard to the minimum wage it will be an immaterial impact as we have a small number of people on the team at this sort of level.

Thanks
Todd

A reminder that Todd posted this on 23 October 2020. Good to see a $3 handle. Could easily be headed to $3.50 in my opinion.

[Ggcc]

Reasonable sized orders going through today.

[winner69]

Whoopee - a pay rise likely later this year

And hopefully such a big increase in guidance will make shareprice rocket to new highs soon

Profit upgraded from about $30m to about $35m ---- that's huge and $35m will be a record result (I think)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/366363/338954.pdf

[sb9]

Whoopee - a pay rise likely later this year

And hopefully such a big increase in guidance will make shareprice rocket to new highs soon

Profit upgraded from about $30m to about $35m ---- that's huge and $35m will be a record result (I think)

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/366363/338954.pdf

One of the unsung heroes of NZX this one. Might see sp with 4 handle by end of this year and if balance sheet is strong they may pay out bit more in divvies. That'll get yield chasers pretty excited.

[Beagle]

17 cps fully imputed = 17 / 0.72 =23.61 cps gross. 23.61 / 290 = 8.1% Gross Yield

Disc: I topped up a few more this morning. I am very pleased to see them stripping $4m+ from overhead costs. Augers extremely well for the future and I think its highly likely that yield is sustainable going forward.

Posted 25/11/20 - Good to see the guidance upgrade today and recall that the stripping of $4m per annum of overhead will come into effect in FY22. (Possibility of $40m per annum for FY22 in my opinion which could see a further dividend uplift). Increased dividend presently to 18 cps will be welcomed by the market. I ended up with more of these than I thought I ever would due to the encouraging looking chart.
Maybe we get 19 cps dividend in FY22 = 26.4 cps gross / $3.20 = 8.25% gross yield

P.S. Agree sb9 and was just thinking about the possibility of a "4" handle myself.

[winner69]

One of the unsung heroes of NZX this one. Might see sp with 4 handle by end of this year and if balance sheet is strong they may pay out bit more in divvies. That'll get yield chasers pretty excited.

Growing profits to more and increased dividends surely 4 bucks is a certainty sooner than later

Even at 4 bucks yield over 6% ....and as you say chances are the 18 cents divie will soon be 20 cents

[winner69]

so share price will be 4 bucks soon

Improved profit might have been baked in already but surely not 16% more than expected

Hope punters get in soon ..... longer you leave it less the gains

[Beagle]

20 cps quite possible next year, maybe even 21 cps ?

Mid point of guidance is $34m and they are suggesting that at the mid point of dividend range 60-70% that equates to 18 cps in annual dividends
If they can do $40m before tax next year that suggests 40/34 x 18 = 21cps is possible ! 21 / 0.72 = 29.16 cps / $3.20 = 9.1%.

[Rawz]

What a beautiful surprise. Love this company. Strongly held by management is the best thing about TRA. Already sitting on 100% gain since buying in April, then topped up some more in May.

High dividends + growth, the best combination.

[Louloubell]

A corresponding response in the share price. Great, am a happy holder.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Excellent management. Bravo to the Turners Team.

[Beagle]

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _______________________________________

Hi Beagle, thanks for the kudos...I appreciate that. I hope the comments I make from time to time are helpful and provide insight. Well done on your share purchase too. Answers to your questions below...

1. Short answer is yes...we didn't stockpile non ESC cars, but vehicle prices have definitely gone up. There have been two large impacts on supply this year....

a) the ESC change which has reduced the pool of available cars that could be imported into NZ.
b) Covid and the impact on new car supply chain which had an impact not just locally but also in Japan and the number of cars available in the auctions over there.

2. Prices for used cars have risen steadily from late May. At this stage, the effect of supply disruption i.e. the new car supply chain interruptions + ESC change mentioned above are more material effects than any shift in demand caused by substitution of public transport with private vehicles.

3. Yes I do. I think this business always goes slightly better in a centre-left government due to the level of support/stimulus that comes with Labour. Beneficiaries are not really our target market but middle NZ families do benefit as well. Most of our customers who have mortgages will have or about to get substantial decreases in their mortgage payments, no overseas travel etc, and the unemployment rate has not peaked like the economists thought it would. We feel confident we will continue to prosper. In regard to the minimum wage it will be an immaterial impact as we have a small number of people on the team at this sort of level.

Thanks
Todd

Marvelous that Todd took the time to share some insights in late October 2020 with us. The only CEO of a listed company (that I am aware of) that makes the effort to do so. My nose for a feed was giving a solid reading as early as October that FY21 was going to be a great year and I expect the tailwinds to continue into FY22 and ultra low interest rates could persist for many years.

[winner69]

Marvelous that Todd took the time to share some insights in late October 2020 with us. The only CEO of a listed company (that I am aware of) that makes the effort to do so. My nose for a feed was giving a solid reading as early as October that FY21 was going to be a great year and I expect the tailwinds to continue into FY22 and ultra low interest rates could persist for many years.


And those $4m odd cost savings persist for years

[Beagle]

Indeed Winner69.
Just one other random thought. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/turners-automotive-upgrades-2021-earnings-guidance/RWZ4POZAQJ43JGDM26OL7TWE4Y/
More lending and lower loan delinquency might have positive implications for Heartland Bank as well.

[MauroNZ]

Marvelous that Todd took the time to share some insights in late October 2020 with us. The only CEO of a listed company (that I am aware of) that makes the effort to do so. My nose for a feed was giving a solid reading as early as October that FY21 was going to be a great year and I expect the tailwinds to continue into FY22 and ultra low interest rates could persist for many years.

As the boarders opens to travel remains uncertain (mainly if anyone going to overseas holidays having to count two weeks and the cost of quarantine) and unlikely to open this year given all the current news, I wonder if in the view of the CEO this could be another reason on increase in car sales.

[Louloubell]

Craigs added 10.5% to their target price of TRA to $3.29

Diversified and well-managed business with all divisions contributing well and regular divvies.

What is there not to like?

[Beagle]

18 cent divvy for the year and 2 x 4 cent divvies paid points to the next two quarterly dividends being 5 cents each. Likely to continue at 5 cps each quarter in my view as dividends increase to 20 cps in FY22. I'm a little surprised the market hasn't embraced the upgrade more enthusiastically.

[clearasmud]

That's a good point Beagle.
I'm glad you're back.

[Yoda]

If I was a long-term investor which I was not in this company, I would have been a bit disappointed with a 10% gain in the last 10 years. Everyone can see it's been a nice steady gain in this last year and may continue. Thanks to all for you're continued entertainment knowledge and wisdom. Better late than never and I bought some today.

[jonu]

18 cent divvy for the year and 2 x 4 cent divvies paid points to the next two quarterly dividends being 5 cents each. Likely to continue at 5 cps each quarter in my view as dividends increase to 20 cps in FY22. I'm a little surprised the market hasn't embraced the upgrade more enthusiastically.

Someone seems happy to unload at 3.35. Keeps being refilled everytime it's cleaned out. Bit surprising.

[sb9]

Someone seems happy to unload at 3.35. Keeps being refilled everytime it's cleaned out. Bit surprising.

Could well be Salt Funds, they're the only one that put out a notice to that affect last year.

[jonu]

Could well be Salt Funds, they're the only one that put out a notice to that affect last year.

They've either stopped or the broker is at lunch :confused:

[Beagle]

Someone seems happy to unload at 3.35. Keeps being refilled everytime it's cleaned out. Bit surprising.

Its is a bit. Last year they paid the full 28% tax rate so at the mid point of their FY21 forecast of $34m, (which is a solid uplift from the $29.1m last year) before tax this suggests $24.5m after tax which on 85.54m shares = eps of 28.64 cps. At $3.35 that's a forward PE of 11.7 which with interest rates where they are is basically a "no growth" PE. Whether they can grow from $34m then becomes the key question. I think tailwinds of ultra low interest rates persist for many years and the Turners brand is doing okay and vehicle margins could remain elevated for quite some time.

I am happy to hold and enjoy the high fully imputed quarterly dividends. I've bought so many vehicles over the years and paid dealers so much money its nice to be investing on the other side of the ledger and making money from others vehicle purchases for a change !

[RTM]

Someone seems happy to unload at 3.35. Keeps being refilled everytime it's cleaned out. Bit surprising.

They did drop to 113 and sat around 160 for some time last year. Not sure of the volumes, but if I had been brave enough to accumulate a sizable quantity then, I think I would be quite happy to be re-balancing at 335.

[jonu]

They did drop to 113 and sat around 160 for some time last year. Not sure of the volumes, but if I had been brave enough to accumulate a sizable quantity then, I think I would be quite happy to be re-balancing at 335.

Yes, but even better at $4

[jonu]

Director Roberts bought a modest amount. Take that SALT!

[Rawz]

Profit upgrade + director buying. Is there a better sign to accumulate?
I couldn't resist and got some more from the $3.35 wall.

[sb9]

Profit upgrade + director buying. Is there a better sign to accumulate?
I couldn't resist and got some more from the $3.35 wall.

Yes, what not to like about the numbers. Seller will eventually run out of stock to sell, from thereon it’ll be blues skies ahead.

[jonu]

Yes, what not to like about the numbers. Seller will eventually run out of stock to sell, from thereon it’ll be blues skies ahead.

Wall slowly being dismantled.

[sb9]

Stock at shelf 335 keeps getting replenished, wonder how much more to go....

[Rawz]

I like it how the seller(s) has set the $3.35 price as their limit sell and isn't pushing the stock down

[dreamcatcher]

I like it how the seller(s) has set the $3.35 price as their limit sell and isn't pushing the stock down

Probably seller has no intentions replacing lower

[sb9]

As expected, Salt have been selling their stake and they have further 6mln odd shares at their disposal.

[Rawz]

As expected, Salt have been selling their stake and they have further 6mln odd shares at their disposal.

Sold 860k shares in 2 and a bit months.
Just remember for every seller there is a buyer. Price holding just under that $3.35 mark