TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Beagle]

Hi Bp,

I hope you don't mind if I opine on that one, (while we wait for Todd's response).
I saw a report the other day, (obviously all things about the distant future are not easily predictable) that it wouldn't be until 2027 that EV's are the same price as an equivalent ICE powered car, but frankly it wouldn't surprise me if this is at least another decade away, (see comment earlier today about where are all the batteries going to come from).
Irrespective of whenever this happens Turners will still sell them as used cars in due course in the 2030's just like they sell petrol and diesel powered used vehicles now.
As for them eventually being half the cost of a petrol or diesel powered car, I for one think this is extremely unlikely to ever happen.

We've seen all sorts of opinions and indications in the media about future expectations around when the price of EV's might come down to price parity but interestingly all the evidence to date indicates the process is painfully slow, (glacial pace). When Nissan fist released the first EV, the Nissan Leaf onto the N.Z. market nearly a decade ago it was $59,995. Fast forward a whole decade and they're $61,990 plus ORC https://www.nissan.co.nz/vehicles/browse-range/leaf.html
Progress of sorts, I suppose...unfortunately in the wrong direction !

Just my 2 cents. I am also looking forward to hearing Todd's thoughts on this.

[Biscuit]

Hi Todd,

First let me thank you for another great post and clarification. I think your way to communicate with investors (and some traders :) ) like us is quite innovative (and as far as I know) quite unique. Efficient and addressing real concerns and issues. Great stuff!

Maybe one question re the cyclicality of the business ... it took markets in the 1920'íes less than a decade from 80% horse carts on the roads to 80% cars with combustion engines on the road - and in some markets the swap went even faster. I recon that this was a tough time for the sellers of horses and preloved carts ... and I recon that there was a high percentage of new vehicles on the road, given that due to the demand there would have been not many used vehicle with combustion engine available.

Now - this was 100 years ago, and nobody cares anymore - however I would expect a similar dynamics when EV's ultimately take over (and I don't think we will need to wait another decade to see that happening).

I do understand as well, that Turners can sell EV's as easy as cars with combustion engine. However - isn't it likely that there will be in the beginning of the EV tsunami just not enough used EV vehicles available but many more new cars (in percentage) on the roads? What happens if you can get a new and much more economical EV car for say $15,000 instead of the combustion engine version for 30,000? Would this cut into Turners business?

Anyway - just my thoughts ... and obviously - congratulations to Turners and its team for the recent results. Long may they continue!

Most EVs in NZ are secondhand imports now. I don't see any reason why the transition from ICE to EV would impact the trade in used cars? If anything, it would accelerate it I would expect.

[BlackPeter]

OK - I guess the transformation from horse carts to combustion engines was probably a bit before any of our times, so lets pick something closer in time to explain.

When I was young you could buy a reasonable SLR (film-) camera for the equivalent of something like $1500 to $2000. Obviously - top models have been more expensive. This was still true when (around 2000) the first reasonable quality digital SLR cameras came out.

When our children grew up (say something like 35 years ago) a reasonable quality Super 8 camera with sound was something like $2000 give or take. 20 years ago I bought a reasonable quality digital film camera (using tapes) for a similar price.

I remember all of my life lots of shops specializing in buying and selling used cameras.

Today my cell phone (an order of magnitude cheaper than the good SLR and early digital camera from 20 years ago) can do more than above cameras as well as above SLR. I know, it is tough - maybe the SLR would be with film better in landscape photography, but for other use - my cellphone is much better (looking at sensitivity, quality of picture and of course practicality. Price of a photo? 40 years ago $1 per photo, today - nothing. I better don't tell you what I used to pay for a minute of Super 8 film.

I remember that the price of a good camera (when looked after) hardly deteriorated over the years. I remember as well that I bought our kids around 2000 good quality film cameras, given that the digital ones (at similar price) just didn't cut it at that time. Two years later the digital cameras could match the quality of the analogue cameras and 4 years later the film cameras had lost all of their value - nobody used anymore a camera which made so expensive photos.

May I mention it - my cellphone, while 2 years ago top of the range is now (still new available) in the shop for something like $500.

I can't remember a lot of shops these days trading in used cell phones, people just buy them and throw them after 2 to 4 years away.

Now - this was a technical step change from roughly 1995 to 2005. In the beginning all experts could tell you that digital photography will never cut it. Ask them today. And yes, this was similar like the move from horse cart to car with combustion engine, from letter to email or from old Xerox machine to any new cheap scanner / ink printer. Lots of specialized business had their problems in any of these step changes ... but no doubt, this time it will be different :):

Personally - I expect the move from combustion engine to EV to be similar - and, not too far away.

Anyway, just my thoughts ...

[Rawz]

OK - I guess the transformation from horse carts to combustion engines was probably a bit before any of our times, so lets pick something closer in time to explain.

When I was young you could buy a reasonable SLR (film-) camera for the equivalent of something like $1500 to $2000. Obviously - top models have been more expensive. This was still true when (around 2000) the first reasonable quality digital SLR cameras came out.

When our children grew up (say something like 35 years ago) a reasonable quality Super 8 camera with sound was something like $2000 give or take. 20 years ago I bought a reasonable quality digital film camera (using tapes) for a similar price.

I remember all of my life lots of shops specializing in buying and selling used cameras.

Today my cell phone (an order of magnitude cheaper than the good SLR and early digital camera from 20 years ago) can do more than above cameras as well as above SLR. I know, it is tough - maybe the SLR would be with film better in landscape photography, but for other use - my cellphone is much better (looking at sensitivity, quality of picture and of course practicality. Price of a photo? 40 years ago $1 per photo, today - nothing. I better don't tell you what I used to pay for a minute of Super 8 film.

I remember that the price of a good camera (when looked after) hardly deteriorated over the years. I remember as well that I bought our kids around 2000 good quality film cameras, given that the digital ones (at similar price) just didn't cut it at that time. Two years later the digital cameras could match the quality of the analogue cameras and 4 years later the film cameras had lost all of their value - nobody used anymore a camera which made so expensive photos.

May I mention it - my cellphone, while 2 years ago top of the range is now (still new available) in the shop for something like $500.

I can't remember a lot of shops these days trading in used cell phones, people just buy them and throw them after 2 to 4 years away.

Now - this was a technical step change from roughly 1995 to 2005. In the beginning all experts could tell you that digital photography will never cut it. Ask them today. And yes, this was similar like the move from horse cart to car with combustion engine, from letter to email or from old Xerox machine to any new cheap scanner / ink printer. Lots of specialized business had their problems in any of these step changes ... but no doubt, this time it will be different :):

Personally - I expect the move from combustion engine to EV to be similar - and, not too far away.

Anyway, just my thoughts ...

Technology is deflationary, that is certain. One day later this decade, maybe early next, EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles. No worries, a service still requires a fee. Turners will continue to make a buck out of selling used EVs. Maybe there will be a service needed to deal with used batteries? Who knows what the glorious future holds.

I don't think EVs will get to a price where people just throw them away and get a new one. There will be a used market I am 100% sure of that. You're overthinking it a wee bit and being overly cautious imo. You going to miss the bus to 5 bucks :p

[Poet]

Technology is deflationary, that is certain. One day later this decade, maybe early next, EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles. No worries, a service still requires a fee. Turners will continue to make a buck out of selling used EVs. Maybe there will be a service needed to deal with used batteries? Who knows what the glorious future holds.

I don't think EVs will get to a price where people just throw them away and get a new one. There will be a used market I am 100% sure of that. You're overthinking it a wee bit and being overly cautious imo. You going to miss the bus to 5 bucks :p


I agree, technology is generally deflationary, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the devices are cheaper (they just tend to have more features for the same price)

ICE engined cars haven't really become cheaper over the years (probably the opposite), you still pay a lot for a new car, but definitely you get more for your money these days cf thirty years ago.

Black Peter's example of film camera versus digital is similar, the phone that you take your digital pics on now is still $2000, it just does a lot more these days.

There are a lot of big (and very real) problems associated with widespread adoption of EVs and many of these problems aren't as simple to solve as a politician declaring widespread adoption by such and such a date or bannng ICE's by such and such another date.

Adoption may happen eventually, but IMO will be a decade or two later than widely assumed

[Ricky-bobby]

Great result Todd! Very happy holder! Just keep on doing what u do well.

[nztx]

As others have posted - A great result Todd & Turners - keep up the great work !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

OK - I guess the transformation from horse carts to combustion engines was probably a bit before any of our times, so lets pick something closer in time to explain.

When I was young you could buy a reasonable SLR (film-) camera for the equivalent of something like $1500 to $2000. Obviously - top models have been more expensive. This was still true when (around 2000) the first reasonable quality digital SLR cameras came out.

When our children grew up (say something like 35 years ago) a reasonable quality Super 8 camera with sound was something like $2000 give or take. 20 years ago I bought a reasonable quality digital film camera (using tapes) for a similar price.

I remember all of my life lots of shops specializing in buying and selling used cameras.

Today my cell phone (an order of magnitude cheaper than the good SLR and early digital camera from 20 years ago) can do more than above cameras as well as above SLR. I know, it is tough - maybe the SLR would be with film better in landscape photography, but for other use - my cellphone is much better (looking at sensitivity, quality of picture and of course practicality. Price of a photo? 40 years ago $1 per photo, today - nothing. I better don't tell you what I used to pay for a minute of Super 8 film.

I remember that the price of a good camera (when looked after) hardly deteriorated over the years. I remember as well that I bought our kids around 2000 good quality film cameras, given that the digital ones (at similar price) just didn't cut it at that time. Two years later the digital cameras could match the quality of the analogue cameras and 4 years later the film cameras had lost all of their value - nobody used anymore a camera which made so expensive photos.

May I mention it - my cellphone, while 2 years ago top of the range is now (still new available) in the shop for something like $500.

I can't remember a lot of shops these days trading in used cell phones, people just buy them and throw them after 2 to 4 years away.

Now - this was a technical step change from roughly 1995 to 2005. In the beginning all experts could tell you that digital photography will never cut it. Ask them today. And yes, this was similar like the move from horse cart to car with combustion engine, from letter to email or from old Xerox machine to any new cheap scanner / ink printer. Lots of specialized business had their problems in any of these step changes ... but no doubt, this time it will be different :):

Personally - I expect the move from combustion engine to EV to be similar - and, not too far away.

Anyway, just my thoughts ...

Cars aren't consumer electronics which have quick replacement cycles and where production can be scaled in months. With cars it takes years to build new production capacity and the supply chains to serve them, while the average life of a car is over 15 years, and the global fleet of vehicles is around 1.5 billion.

The global car manufacturing capacity is less than 100 million a year. Even if the entire industry converted to EV production next year (they can’t, there isn’t enough batteries to supply even a few million EVs let alone 100 million), it would take at least over 15 years to replace the existing car fleet. However since It’s predicted EVs will take until the end of the decade to become the majority of cars shipped, the realistic turnover time for the majority of the worlds car fleet to be EVs will be at least 20 years.

I don’t see how all this impacts Turners at all anyway - they will continue to buy and sell used cars regardless of whether they are ICE or EVs.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Technology is deflationary, that is certain. One day later this decade, maybe early next, EVs will be cheaper than ICE vehicles. No worries, a service still requires a fee. Turners will continue to make a buck out of selling used EVs. Maybe there will be a service needed to deal with used batteries? Who knows what the glorious future holds.

I don't think EVs will get to a price where people just throw them away and get a new one. There will be a used market I am 100% sure of that. You're overthinking it a wee bit and being overly cautious imo. You going to miss the bus to 5 bucks :p

Good thinking about batteries - might be some opportunity there for a new service. Already EV batteries are being recycled - either repurposed for home power storage batteries, or recycled back to its elements and reused in new Battery production.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I agree, technology is generally deflationary, but that doesn't necessarily mean that the devices are cheaper (they just tend to have more features for the same price)

ICE engined cars haven't really become cheaper over the years (probably the opposite), you still pay a lot for a new car, but definitely you get more for your money these days cf thirty years ago.

Black Peter's example of film camera versus digital is similar, the phone that you take your digital pics on now is still $2000, it just does a lot more these days.

There are a lot of big (and very real) problems associated with widespread adoption of EVs and many of these problems aren't as simple to solve as a politician declaring widespread adoption by such and such a date or bannng ICE's by such and such another date.

Adoption may happen eventually, but IMO will be a decade or two later than widely assumed

even today - the majority of the cost of a new EV is not the battery - it’s all the other costs associated with making a car of any type: stamping, pressing, body assembly, paint shop, general assembly, all the parts from suppliers to go in the car (batteries, windows, seats, wheels, computers etc) and EVs of course still have motors to pay for as well, and then all the labour, buildings, sales staff and distribution and logistics required to build them and get them to customers. Add on the warranty reserve on each vehicle as well.

For instance with the cheapest Tesla (costing $70k NZD), the battery cost is less than $12k of the estimated $50k build cost. Even if batteries were free, that Tesla wouldn’t cost that much less than it does today.

[tommy_d]

I remember as well that I bought our kids around 2000 good quality film cameras

probably could have got away with buying them one each ;)

[Getty]

He's got a 1000 kids tho, cant show any favouritism...

[Ggcc]

OK - I guess the transformation from horse carts to combustion engines was probably a bit before any of our times, so lets pick something closer in time to explain.

When I was young you could buy a reasonable SLR (film-) camera for the equivalent of something like $1500 to $2000. Obviously - top models have been more expensive. This was still true when (around 2000) the first reasonable quality digital SLR cameras came out.

When our children grew up (say something like 35 years ago) a reasonable quality Super 8 camera with sound was something like $2000 give or take. 20 years ago I bought a reasonable quality digital film camera (using tapes) for a similar price.

I remember all of my life lots of shops specializing in buying and selling used cameras.

Today my cell phone (an order of magnitude cheaper than the good SLR and early digital camera from 20 years ago) can do more than above cameras as well as above SLR. I know, it is tough - maybe the SLR would be with film better in landscape photography, but for other use - my cellphone is much better (looking at sensitivity, quality of picture and of course practicality. Price of a photo? 40 years ago $1 per photo, today - nothing. I better don't tell you what I used to pay for a minute of Super 8 film.

I remember that the price of a good camera (when looked after) hardly deteriorated over the years. I remember as well that I bought our kids around 2000 good quality film cameras, given that the digital ones (at similar price) just didn't cut it at that time. Two years later the digital cameras could match the quality of the analogue cameras and 4 years later the film cameras had lost all of their value - nobody used anymore a camera which made so expensive photos.

May I mention it - my cellphone, while 2 years ago top of the range is now (still new available) in the shop for something like $500.

I can't remember a lot of shops these days trading in used cell phones, people just buy them and throw them after 2 to 4 years away.

Now - this was a technical step change from roughly 1995 to 2005. In the beginning all experts could tell you that digital photography will never cut it. Ask them today. And yes, this was similar like the move from horse cart to car with combustion engine, from letter to email or from old Xerox machine to any new cheap scanner / ink printer. Lots of specialized business had their problems in any of these step changes ... but no doubt, this time it will be different :):

Personally - I expect the move from combustion engine to EV to be similar - and, not too far away.

Anyway, just my thoughts ...

You should go to an infratil meeting and ask Tim Brown what he thinks about the EV revolution. He will enlighten you as he did me.

[BlackPeter]

probably could have got away with buying them one each ;)

Yeah right - amazing how the same sentence can have so different meanings, isn't it? I was obviously talking about the year 2000, which is now already so far back in the past ....

[clearasmud]

You should go to an infratil meeting and ask Tim Brown what he thinks about the EV revolution. He will enlighten you as he did me.
And what did he say?

[Beagle]

Just crunching the numbers and assessing value going forward.
At today's opening price of $4.05 (less 6 cents back very shortly for Fy21's dividend) give s net investment price of $3.99 for FY22 earnings and beyond.
FY21 Covid affected eps was 31.4 cps so that's a trailing FY21 PE of 3.99 / 31.4 = 12.7 and that's for a company that's clearly articulated its growth ambitions going forward.
Looking at FY22's forecast yield, if we assume 21.5 cps which is 7.5% growth that's 21.5 / 0.72 = 29.86 cps gross and on $3.99 that's a forecast gross yield of 7.5%.

The recent rise above $4 looks fully warranted to me.

[Beagle]

deleted - site issues caused a double post.

[Ggcc]

And what did he say?
It was a long story and he was neither for or against EV vehicles. He mentioned until the government were clear with how they were implementing their thoughts about EV vehicles, electric companies were not ready to invest in infrastructure to deal with the inflow of the maybe's. He mentioned about the cost of EVs and kiwis reluctants to buy them without some form of subsidy. They have an electric bus at wellington airport that is charged by a diesel generator??? In short he had more to say, but laughed the idea off indicating the answer of EVs was more complicated and involved Government action and not just talking (what Cindy is so good at)

My personal belief. Most car dealers I talk to are just going with the trend. They all want to do their bit for the environment, but until we know how they will dispose of these batteries properly Im out and many car dealers say the same. Just google are electric cars good or bad for the environment.

One quote

Through their entire lifetime, electric cars are better for the climate. In the manufacturing process, electric vehicles will produce more global warming emissions than the average gasoline vehicle, because electric cars' large lithium-ion batteries require a lot of materials and energy to build.

I for one don't think EVs are the future, maybe a side step until the next future thing. Maybe hydrogen who knows. Until then TRA will continue to perform for the next few years until the what ifs and maybes are answered properly by the government.

[Biscuit]

....I for one don't think EVs are the future....

For increasing numbers of us, EVs are the present. I've had mine for nearly 4 years now, done over 100,000 kms. Cheap to run, no maintenance...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It was a long story and he was neither for or against EV vehicles. He mentioned until the government were clear with how they were implementing their thoughts about EV vehicles, electric companies were not ready to invest in infrastructure to deal with the inflow of the maybe's. He mentioned about the cost of EVs and kiwis reluctants to buy them without some form of subsidy. They have an electric bus at wellington airport that is charged by a diesel generator??? In short he had more to say, but laughed the idea off indicating the answer of EVs was more complicated and involved Government action and not just talking (what Cindy is so good at)

My personal belief. Most car dealers I talk to are just going with the trend. They all want to do their bit for the environment, but until we know how they will dispose of these batteries properly Im out and many car dealers say the same. Just google are electric cars good or bad for the environment.

One quote

Through their entire lifetime, electric cars are better for the climate. In the manufacturing process, electric vehicles will produce more global warming emissions than the average gasoline vehicle, because electric cars' large lithium-ion batteries require a lot of materials and energy to build.

I for one don't think EVs are the future, maybe a side step until the next future thing. Maybe hydrogen who knows. Until then TRA will continue to perform for the next few years until the what ifs and maybes are answered properly by the government.

Those sort of quotes have been widely discredited, as they include theoretical carbon costs of building and powering EVs (using hypothetical mix of energy sources), but don’t include all the carbon costs of building and powering ICE cars. The far most common error is neglecting the carbon costs of petrol. The error is they base it on the carbon emitted from burning petrol in the engine, and neglect to include all the carbon costs involved with the extraction, refining and transporting that petrol from all over the world to your cars petrol tank.

And there is no question mark about “disposal of batteries” - as every single EV battery cell that is judged to be no longer efficient enough to be used in an EV is eagerly repurposed by those after stationary power storage at a bargain price.

[Beagle]

I think its clear Turners are going to be selling whatever second hand cars are available on the market be they petrol, diesel or electric and that whatever propels them is only a fairly small part of the overall cost of the vehicle so the suggested possible radical halving of vehicle prices is extremely unlikely and even if ever achieved will be at some point far into the future. For example in a presentation to analysts today Ford are hoping to get the cost of battery power down from $160 a kw/hr to $90 kw/hr within the next decade....but I suspect the issue will be that consumers will demand longer range as EV's develop so the manufactured cost is still likely to go up due to almost every other one of the thousands of components that go into a vehicle going up and battery sizes increasing to meet increasing consumer expectations. Anyway...good thread here for discussing all things EV's I started years ago https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?10936-Electric-Cars-have-we-reached-a-turning-point

GNE running their Rankine units flat out on coal all winter, (estimated to burn 2,000,000 tons of coal this winter.).. to keep the lights on and Aucklanders EV's charged up. Hmmm

Can we please get back to discussing Turners ?

[Ggcc]

For increasing numbers of us, EVs are the present. I've had mine for nearly 4 years now, done over 100,000 kms. Cheap to run, no maintenance...
No road user charges either, but you have done more kms than me in four years. Im lucky to do 10,000 per year

On average, New Zealand men drive just over 12,000 km per driver per year, while women on average drive just over 8,000 km per driver per year. Approximately 61 percent of the total distance driven by New Zealanders in cars, vans, utes and SUVs, is by men.

[Ggcc]

Those sort of quotes have been widely discredited, as they include theoretical carbon costs of building and powering EVs (using hypothetical mix of energy sources), but don’t include all the carbon costs of building and powering ICE cars. The far most common error is neglecting the carbon costs of petrol. The error is they base it on the carbon emitted from burning petrol in the engine, and neglect to include all the carbon costs involved with the extraction, refining and transporting that petrol from all over the world to your cars petrol tank.

And there is no question mark about “disposal of batteries” - as every single EV battery cell that is judged to be no longer efficient enough to be used in an EV is eagerly repurposed by those after stationary power storage at a bargain price.

Most hypothesis use theoretical possibilities. Nothing is 100% correct with hypothesis.

What has been explained to me by multiple car enthusiasts. If you don't drive the KMs then your electric vehicle becomes more detrimental to the environment and more costly to the user.

[winner69]

If people only drove tractors I'm sure Turners would sell heaps of tractors.....and finance them and insure them

[Biscuit]

No road user charges either, but you have done more kms than me in four years. Im lucky to do 10,000 per year



Yes, KM count. Cost about 10 cents per km in depreciation so far, no road user charges and I charge up for free at work or supermarket. The present is the golden time for EVs eh! but they will own the future as well and Turners will do just as well out of EVs as ICEs, and probably better from both than from tractors.

[Beagle]

If people only drove tractors I'm sure Turners would sell heaps of tractors.....and finance them and insure them

I bought a few more this morning because your post sums it up nicely, its in a beautiful looking uptrend and the financial metrics and outlook look very attractive.

[Biscuit]

I bought a few more this morning because your post sums it up nicely, its in a beautiful looking uptrend and the financial metrics and outlook look very attractive.


Turners or EVs?

[toddhunter]

Hi Todd,

First let me thank you for another great post and clarification. I think your way to communicate with investors (and some traders :) ) like us is quite innovative (and as far as I know) quite unique. Efficient and addressing real concerns and issues. Great stuff!

Maybe one question re the cyclicality of the business ... it took markets in the 1920'íes less than a decade from 80% horse carts on the roads to 80% cars with combustion engines on the road - and in some markets the swap went even faster. I recon that this was a tough time for the sellers of horses and preloved carts ... and I recon that there was a high percentage of new vehicles on the road, given that due to the demand there would have been not many used vehicle with combustion engine available.

Now - this was 100 years ago, and nobody cares anymore - however I would expect a similar dynamics when EV's ultimately take over (and I don't think we will need to wait another decade to see that happening).

I do understand as well, that Turners can sell EV's as easy as cars with combustion engine. However - isn't it likely that there will be in the beginning of the EV tsunami just not enough used EV vehicles available but many more new cars (in percentage) on the roads? What happens if you can get a new and much more economical EV car for say $15,000 instead of the combustion engine version for 30,000? Would this cut into Turners business?

Anyway - just my thoughts ... and obviously - congratulations to Turners and its team for the recent results. Long may they continue!

Thanks Black Peter I actually enjoy the engagement and discussion on the company and strategy. I can’t believe more CEOs don’t involve themselves. It is a good way of getting to know what people are thinking about your company and put your own perspectives across.

My thoughts are similar to a number of people who have commented subsequently…


The change out to a full EV fleet will take decades. There are 4m cars in NZ give or take and in a normal year around 150k new cars sold. Even if every new car sold into NZ from this year was an EV it would take 25+ years to change the fleet out. This will happen over a long period of time. Also given NZ is a wafer of world market share and we are a RHD (right hand drive) country in a world dominated by LHD…we typically are bottom priority of any production allocation decisions.




The technology is rapidly evolving. EV battery tech is changing quickly (read about solid state batteries), the jury is still out on Hydrogen as well. I recently met with a large new car manufacturer MD who has a good line up of EV product coming in and his view was Hydrogen will win in the long term. But all this is just another barrier to people buying EVs because they are worried whatever they buy will rapidly become outdated.




The capital cost of the EVs are still too high. From our research, 60% of kiwis will spend less than $10k on a car and 80% will spend less than $20k. Low cost used EVs carry significant perceived risk around the battery quality and life.




The cost of EVs will drop…most likely driven by the Chinese brands. If they drop significantly, it may have an impact on prices of ICE used cars in the used space. Although the Government’s current Clean Car Standard is going to push used car prices up…another story. (Watch the Sunday program on TV1 this week) for more on this. Pricing has little impact on Turners given we buy and sell in the same market. We carry around 3 months stock at any one time and therefore have zero exposure to long term shifts in pricing. Our business is based on churn as a few have pointed out. We are completely agnostic about what type of car we sell , EV, ICE, hydrogen, big, small etc.


In my view the change out to EV will happen over a long period. Check out the actual EV numbers in the fleet here… https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/monthly-ev-statistics/ in my view no real growth in the number being registered per month for 3 years.

Turners will continue to thrive no matter the mix of the fleet.

Thanks
Todd

[Beagle]

Turners or EVs?

LOL - Turners shares, (worth at least $4 right now in my carefully considered opinion) but I have registered my interest and will have a look at the new Kia EV6 GT due later this year. https://kia.co.nz/ev6-pre-registration/ No official pricing yet but the top spec GT is $58,000 pounds in the U.K. which suggests about $115K here. 0-100 k.p.h. in 3.5 seconds could be fun :D

As Todd has suggested above my main concern is no matter when you pull the trigger on a new EV with a year or two it will be significantly outdated which has serious repercussions in regard to expected depreciation rates. Its almost certain the Govt will have to apply RUC to EV's in the near future too so the apparent operational cost savings at present are somewhat illusionary in the medium term in my opinion.

[Habits]

LOL - Turners shares, (worth at least $4 right now in my carefully considered opinion) but I have registered my interest and will have a look at the new Kia EV6 GT due later this year. https://kia.co.nz/ev6-pre-registration/ No official pricing yet but the top spec GT is $58,000 pounds in the U.K. which suggests about $115K here. 0-100 k.p.h. in 3.5 seconds could be fun :D

As Todd has suggested above my main concern is no matter when you pull the trigger on a new EV with a year or two it will be significantly outdated which has serious repercussions in regard to expected depreciation rates. Its almost certain the Govt will have to apply RUC to EV's in the near future too so the apparent operational cost savings at present are somewhat illusionary in the medium term in my opinion.

Petrol/EV Hybrid Kia Niro is a very good option. Save gas and no RUC

[Onion]

LOL - Turners shares, (worth at least $4 right now in my carefully considered opinion) but I have registered my interest and will have a look at the new Kia EV6 GT due later this year. https://kia.co.nz/ev6-pre-registration/ No official pricing yet but the top spec GT is $58,000 pounds in the U.K. which suggests about $115K here. 0-100 k.p.h. in 3.5 seconds could be fun :D

As Todd has suggested above my main concern is no matter when you pull the trigger on a new EV with a year or two it will be significantly outdated which has serious repercussions in regard to expected depreciation rates. Its almost certain the Govt will have to apply RUC to EV's in the near future too so the apparent operational cost savings at present are somewhat illusionary in the medium term in my opinion.

Nice looking car. Does it come with Beagle seat belts?

[Beagle]

Nice looking car. Does it come with Beagle seat belts?

Isn't it !. I'm not worried about the seat belts, just hoping those sports seats are not too tight a fit for some overweight old mutt :)

[Ggcc]

Thanks Black Peter I actually enjoy the engagement and discussion on the company and strategy. I can’t believe more CEOs don’t involve themselves. It is a good way of getting to know what people are thinking about your company and put your own perspectives across.

My thoughts are similar to a number of people who have commented subsequently…


The change out to a full EV fleet will take decades. There are 4m cars in NZ give or take and in a normal year around 150k new cars sold. Even if every new car sold into NZ from this year was an EV it would take 25+ years to change the fleet out. This will happen over a long period of time. Also given NZ is a wafer of world market share and we are a RHD (right hand drive) country in a world dominated by LHD…we typically are bottom priority of any production allocation decisions.




The technology is rapidly evolving. EV battery tech is changing quickly (read about solid state batteries), the jury is still out on Hydrogen as well. I recently met with a large new car manufacturer MD who has a good line up of EV product coming in and his view was Hydrogen will win in the long term. But all this is just another barrier to people buying EVs because they are worried whatever they buy will rapidly become outdated.




The capital cost of the EVs are still too high. From our research, 60% of kiwis will spend less than $10k on a car and 80% will spend less than $20k. Low cost used EVs carry significant perceived risk around the battery quality and life.




The cost of EVs will drop…most likely driven by the Chinese brands. If they drop significantly, it may have an impact on prices of ICE used cars in the used space. Although the Government’s current Clean Car Standard is going to push used car prices up…another story. (Watch the Sunday program on TV1 this week) for more on this. Pricing has little impact on Turners given we buy and sell in the same market. We carry around 3 months stock at any one time and therefore have zero exposure to long term shifts in pricing. Our business is based on churn as a few have pointed out. We are completely agnostic about what type of car we sell , EV, ICE, hydrogen, big, small etc.


In my view the change out to EV will happen over a long period. Check out the actual EV numbers in the fleet here… https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/monthly-ev-statistics/ in my view no real growth in the number being registered per month for 3 years.

Turners will continue to thrive no matter the mix of the fleet.

Thanks
Todd

Thanks Todd. I rest my case now back to Turners

[Getty]

Thanks Black Peter I actually enjoy the engagement and discussion on the company and strategy. I can’t believe more CEOs don’t involve themselves. It is a good way of getting to know what people are thinking about your company and put your own perspectives across.

My thoughts are similar to a number of people who have commented subsequently…


The change out to a full EV fleet will take decades. There are 4m cars in NZ give or take and in a normal year around 150k new cars sold. Even if every new car sold into NZ from this year was an EV it would take 25+ years to change the fleet out. This will happen over a long period of time. Also given NZ is a wafer of world market share and we are a RHD (right hand drive) country in a world dominated by LHD…we typically are bottom priority of any production allocation decisions.




The technology is rapidly evolving. EV battery tech is changing quickly (read about solid state batteries), the jury is still out on Hydrogen as well. I recently met with a large new car manufacturer MD who has a good line up of EV product coming in and his view was Hydrogen will win in the long term. But all this is just another barrier to people buying EVs because they are worried whatever they buy will rapidly become outdated.




The capital cost of the EVs are still too high. From our research, 60% of kiwis will spend less than $10k on a car and 80% will spend less than $20k. Low cost used EVs carry significant perceived risk around the battery quality and life.




The cost of EVs will drop…most likely driven by the Chinese brands. If they drop significantly, it may have an impact on prices of ICE used cars in the used space. Although the Government’s current Clean Car Standard is going to push used car prices up…another story. (Watch the Sunday program on TV1 this week) for more on this. Pricing has little impact on Turners given we buy and sell in the same market. We carry around 3 months stock at any one time and therefore have zero exposure to long term shifts in pricing. Our business is based on churn as a few have pointed out. We are completely agnostic about what type of car we sell , EV, ICE, hydrogen, big, small etc.


In my view the change out to EV will happen over a long period. Check out the actual EV numbers in the fleet here… https://www.transport.govt.nz/statistics-and-insights/fleet-statistics/monthly-ev-statistics/ in my view no real growth in the number being registered per month for 3 years.

Turners will continue to thrive no matter the mix of the fleet.

Thanks
Todd

The comments of a man who KNOWS his business.

No ATM/SML style surprises due here.

Well done, and thanks Todd.

[Biscuit]

LOL - Turners shares, (worth at least $4 right now in my carefully considered opinion) but I have registered my interest and will have a look at the new Kia EV6 GT due later this year. https://kia.co.nz/ev6-pre-registration/ No official pricing yet but the top spec GT is $58,000 pounds in the U.K. which suggests about $115K here. 0-100 k.p.h. in 3.5 seconds could be fun :D

As Todd has suggested above my main concern is no matter when you pull the trigger on a new EV with a year or two it will be significantly outdated which has serious repercussions in regard to expected depreciation rates. Its almost certain the Govt will have to apply RUC to EV's in the near future too so the apparent operational cost savings at present are somewhat illusionary in the medium term in my opinion.

As Todd and others have said, I don't think EVs or whatever technology drives the cars are a problem for Turners. The technology that will soon disrupt their business is the driverless-car technology. The future is astonishing! Within twelve and a half years there will be no privately owned cars. All cars will be driverless, they will all be owned by google who will buy them direct from the factory, own them for 3 years and recycle them at the end of their working life. When you want a car you will swipe right on your app, the car will appear within 2 minutes, take you where you want to go for a few cents and then bugger off to the next customer. Because all the drivers are computers and are networked the ride will be safe and unbelievably fast and congestion-free even at rush-hour in the busiest cities. No one will own a car and there will be no secondhand car market.

[winner69]

As Todd and others have said, I don't think EVs or whatever technology drives the cars are a problem for Turners. The technology that will soon disrupt their business is the driverless-car technology. The future is astonishing! Within twelve and a half years there will be no privately owned cars. All cars will be driverless, they will all be owned by google who will buy them direct from the factory, own them for 3 years and recycle them at the end of their working life. When you want a car you will swipe right on your app, the car will appear within 2 minutes, take you where you want to go for a few cents and then bugger off to the next customer. Because all the drivers are computers and are networked the ride will be safe and unbelievably fast and congestion-free even at rush-hour in the busiest cities. No one will own a car and there will be no secondhand car market.

But Wellington's $225 million cycle way will even make driverless cars obsolete - it will all be bikes and scooters in a car free city with spatial living they say - commuting a thing of the past

Cool eh

[777]

What are you guys on?

[Biscuit]

But Wellington's $225 million cycle way will even make driverless cars obsolete - it will all be bikes and scooters in a car free city with interspatial living they say - commuting a thing of the past

Cool eh

As long as they are on the cycle way they will be ok but they will be dead meat if they venture onto the new super fast driverless car road network - them robot drivers got no pity for cyclists

[Beagle]

As Todd and others have said, I don't think EVs or whatever technology drives the cars are a problem for Turners. The technology that will soon disrupt their business is the driverless-car technology. The future is astonishing! Within twelve and a half years there will be no privately owned cars. All cars will be driverless, they will all be owned by google who will buy them direct from the factory, own them for 3 years and recycle them at the end of their working life. When you want a car you will swipe right on your app, the car will appear within 2 minutes, take you where you want to go for a few cents and then bugger off to the next customer. Because all the drivers are computers and are networked the ride will be safe and unbelievably fast and congestion-free even at rush-hour in the busiest cities. No one will own a car and there will be no secondhand car market.

I am sure I am not the only one that is astonished that you can predict the distant future with such amazing clarity and I wish you all the best with your future driverless journeys on many of N.Z's unmarked gravel roads ;)

[Biscuit]

I am sure I am not the only one that is astonished that you can predict the distant future with such amazing clarity and I wish you all the best with your future driverless journeys on many of N.Z's unmarked gravel roads ;)

If a human can drive on a gravel road, a computer can. Logically though, driverless cars are the answer to congestion and the high cost of transport but their maximum efficiency will only be achieved when self-drivers are removed from the road so the outcome is predictable, though the timeframe was a guess.

[sb9]

Roadmap to $5 share looks to be obsolete target as each day's trading passes...

[Beau]

Do you mean absolute target?

[winner69]

Roadmap to $5 share looks to be obsolete target as each day's trading passes...

Slide will have new title come half year announcement -- Roadmap to $7/share

We will never again see the share price below 4 bucks

[Poet]

If a human can drive on a gravel road, a computer can. Logically though, driverless cars are the answer to congestion and the high cost of transport but their maximum efficiency will only be achieved when self-drivers are removed from the road so the outcome is predictable, though the timeframe was a guess.

I'm not sure how you figure "driverless cars are the answer to congestion" - do you think driverless cars will result in fewer trips being made?
I think that driverless cars would actually result in more congestion because each trip will have a little bit of overhead at both ends (ie the extra travel the car has to do from where it is when you summon it to where you want to be picked up and vice versa at the end of the trip)

Also, you might find that the fact that people don't need to worry car parking will mean that one of the big incentives to use public transport will disappear and people will be more inclined to use single or low occupancy driverless cars - again, more congestion

[sb9]

Do you mean absolute target?

No, I meant its not relevant target anymore as price keeps getting closer by the day while that target ($5) was meant for long term in the presentation.

[sb9]

Slide will have new title come half year announcement -- Roadmap to $7/share

We will never again see the share price below 4 bucks

Could well be, provided big boys pause their selling and more buyer demand.

[Biscuit]

I'm not sure how you figure "driverless cars are the answer to congestion" - do you think driverless cars will result in fewer trips being made?
I think that driverless cars would actually result in more congestion because each trip will have a little bit of overhead at both ends (ie the extra travel the car has to do from where it is when you summon it to where you want to be picked up and vice versa at the end of the trip)

We going to be told off for not being on topic, but congestion results from driver inefficiency not just the number of cars/trips. Get rid of the human and you can get rid of traffic lights, traffic lanes, car parking etc etc, you will get orders of magnitude of efficiency gains and zero congestion.

[Beau]

No, I meant its not relevant target anymore as price keeps getting closer by the day while that target ($5) was meant for long term in the presentation.

Thanks gotcha

[BlackPeter]

I'm not sure how you figure "driverless cars are the answer to congestion" - do you think driverless cars will result in fewer trips being made?
I think that driverless cars would actually result in more congestion because each trip will have a little bit of overhead at both ends (ie the extra travel the car has to do from where it is when you summon it to where you want to be picked up and vice versa at the end of the trip)

I can see where biscuit is coming from - can't you? It seems pretty obvious:

Less parking space required for driverless cars, given that they can do something useful (serving other passengers) instead of using up road space waiting for their driver to return.

Less cars overall needed (equals less road space). One car can serve many drivers.

Less safety distance required (if all cars are driverless) - more cars per road km, less congestion;

Less accidents (by removing the major cause of accidents - the human driver - out of the car) resulting in less road congestion;

More socially acceptable and planned driving maneuvers result in better rood utilization: https://medium.com/swlh/how-self-driving-cars-will-reduce-traffic-congestion-8bad5594c5d0

[777]

Who wants to get into a car that the great unwashed use? Look at the state of the interiors of some cars now. At least with public transport someone is keeping an watch on state of cleanliness.

[Beagle]

If a human can drive on a gravel road, a computer can. Logically though, driverless cars are the answer to congestion and the high cost of transport but their maximum efficiency will only be achieved when self-drivers are removed from the road so the outcome is predictable, though the timeframe was a guess.

I am happy to let you be the Guinea pig :lol:

I think the future you describe is decades away, (but like all things about the distant future the timeline might be at quite a considerable difference to what either you or I can imagine.

In the meantime those not on their journey to $5 as expertly driven by Todd and his very capable team are going to miss out on heaps, especially with the road map to $7 to be announced next year :p

[BlackPeter]

Who wants to get into a car that the great unwashed use? Look at the state of the interiors of some cars now. At least with public transport someone is keeping an watch on state of cleanliness.

Well, yes - who wants to use a dangerous stinky and noisy car with combustion engine, if there are plenty of good carts and horses around? Oops - people did.

But no point in repeating the same old arguments again and again.

Times change and people either die or they change with them.

[777]

Well, yes - who wants to use a dangerous stinky and noisy car with combustion engine, if there are plenty of good carts and horses around? Oops - people did.

But no point in repeating the same old arguments again and again.

Times change and people either die or they change with them.

Read what I wrote and answer that rather than give some random irrelevant diatribe.

[Rawz]

How good is the SP! Happy to let it ride.

[Nor]

Who wants to get into a car that the great unwashed use? Look at the state of the interiors of some cars now. At least with public transport someone is keeping an watch on state of cleanliness.

Not forgetting the virus(es).

[BlackPeter]

Who wants to get into a car that the great unwashed use? Look at the state of the interiors of some cars now. At least with public transport someone is keeping an watch on state of cleanliness.


Read what I wrote and answer that rather than give some random irrelevant diatribe.

Jeez - what an arrogant response ...

OK - lets use the grey cells.

Whoever uses these self driving cars would be registered with name and credit card with the provider - right?

It would not be difficult to take after every trip automatically a photo of the interior and automatically drive the car to the next cleaning station if it looks dirty or or damaged - right?

Obviously - given that the soiler or damager would be obvious (the person using the car in the last trip since it still was clean), it would be quite trivial to charge them for cleaning and / or repairs as appropriate - just deduct a cleaning fee from his credit card. If they don't pay - than there is some work for (e.g.) Turners credit recovery department and whoever soils the car never ever gets to drive one again.

Its not that hard, isn't it?

But just in case this is still too hard for you to comprehend - I am sure that due to above process the "great unwashed" as you choose to call them, will either never use these cars, or they will swiftly be trained to keep them clean. No problem at all.

[dln]

I think the future you describe is decades away, (but like all things about the distant future the timeline might be at quite a considerable difference to what either you or I can imagine.

I'm still waiting for the flying car I was promised by 2000 .....

[LaserEyeKiwi]

If a human can drive on a gravel road, a computer can. Logically though, driverless cars are the answer to congestion and the high cost of transport but their maximum efficiency will only be achieved when self-drivers are removed from the road so the outcome is predictable, though the timeframe was a guess.

Driverless cars will ADD significantly to congestion - not reduce it!

For two obvious reasons:
1. People who would otherwise use public transport will prefer the direct point to point low cost of a driverless car - therefore adding significantly more car traffic to roads.
2. For those that usually drive their own cars, driverless cars (whether it’s their own or a service) will be preferable in many situations as you don’t need to pay for parking etc. So while the amount of cars on the road for these people will be the same in one direction, after the journey is finished you now have a driverless car that is now driving somewhere else (whether that’s all the way back to the owners house, or off to a recharge center - creating a whole lot of extra traffic.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'm not sure how you figure "driverless cars are the answer to congestion" - do you think driverless cars will result in fewer trips being made?
I think that driverless cars would actually result in more congestion because each trip will have a little bit of overhead at both ends (ie the extra travel the car has to do from where it is when you summon it to where you want to be picked up and vice versa at the end of the trip)

Also, you might find that the fact that people don't need to worry car parking will mean that one of the big incentives to use public transport will disappear and people will be more inclined to use single or low occupancy driverless cars - again, more congestion

good point about the first pickup - that turns what is now one trip into as many as three car trips.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So getting back to the stock - excellent week!.

[Beagle]

Yes this journey is very pleasant indeed. Excellent result with a strong outlook and excellent management who are firing on all cylinders !

[Biscuit]

So getting back to the stock - excellent week!.

You are accurate if not insightful.

[Nor]

Driverless cars will ADD significantly to congestion - not reduce it!

For two obvious reasons:
1. People who would otherwise use public transport will prefer the direct point to point low cost of a driverless car - therefore adding significantly more car traffic to roads.
2. For those that usually drive their own cars, driverless cars (whether it’s their own or a service) will be preferable in many situations as you don’t need to pay for parking etc. So while the amount of cars on the road for these people will be the same in one direction, after the journey is finished you now have a driverless car that is now driving somewhere else (whether that’s all the way back to the owners house, or off to a recharge center - creating a whole lot of extra traffic.

Basically the problem is that you can't have seven billion people on the planet, and counting, and all aspiring to a middle class standard of life, without environmental problems. Electric vehicles and green energy on a scale for seven billion will only create their own problems even if they can't be foreseen yet.

[nztx]

I hope Todd remembered Tina's bonus for that very good TV Advert

Perhaps a model upgrade for her mouse may be in order as well .. ;)

[Louloubell]

https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/125253566/used-cars-holding-their-value-as-supply-issues-hit-the-new-and-used-market

[Louloubell]

Confirmation that Turners good days are likely to continue for a wee while yet.

[Snow Leopard]

I saw a Tina from Turners ad last night. Thought it was a good advert.

Makes one consider whether you own enough Turners shares.

[peat]

I'm curious as to the strike price for Todds new option conversion. Anyone know ?
Should it not be part of the announcement?

[Snow Leopard]

I'm curious as to the strike price for Todds new option conversion. Anyone know ?
Should it not be part of the announcement?

I think if you divide the consideration of 500,000 by the quantity of 250,000 that will give you a clue :t_up:

[Watchful]

$2/ea. It’s in the capital change notice made immediately prior, or can divide the cash payment by the share number in his disclosure notice.

[peat]

I think if you divide the consideration of 500,000 by the quantity of 250,000 that will give you a clue :t_up:

sorry man, I left my calculator at the office.

[sb9]

Depth showing very bullish momentum..

[nztx]

Tina & the Team seem to be encouraging an amazing SP run northwards with TRA :)

[Beagle]

Tina, Turners...Simply The Best https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM

Hey Todd...if you started using the marketing catchphrase Turners, Simply the Best and had Tina as the main advertising lady, that might be great marketing but maybe sailing a little close to the wind with copyright ?

[Rawz]

SP is going well, very well indeed.
I'm not a TA guy but gee the chart looks good.

And looking at the depth nobody really wants to part ways with their precious shares

[sb9]

Nearly a bagger for me here, been joyful ride since pandemic hit last year.

[tommy_d]

and here was me a week ago concerned about putting more $$ into TRA at about $1.90 or something...

for full context, they are getting a bit close to my sell price right now. Is there any interest in the reasoning on valuation on some unqualified amateur? Could post something if so, i suspect i would learn a lot from people highlighting the massive gaps in my analysis and errors/risks in my assumptions made. Probably more than anyone would gain from my analysis, so maybe no value in posting anything?


nobody was interested. I re-did everything, decided I had no sell price, so bought some more. Not as cheap as the $1.63 shares, but close enough.
In retrospect, I wish I had posted my thinking at the time - it might have encouraged me to buy even more!

[Biscuit]

nobody was interested. I re-did everything, decided I had no sell price, so bought some more. Not as cheap as the $1.63 shares, but close enough.
In retrospect, I wish I had posted my thinking at the time - it might have encouraged me to buy even more!

Plenty would have been interested in your analysis, they are just too shy to say.

[tommy_d]

Plenty would have been interested in your analysis, they are just too shy to say.

funny looking back.

My five biggest punts back in that May-July 2020 period were OCA (largely fueled by this forum), TRA (own research), SCL (own research, and I still feel like it's undervalued), SAN (before I realised what their trend on quota ownership was) and CEN (a few factors).

Across the range they've done ok.

I'll post thoughts here next time I do some digging around for a buy if I think I've found something.
Even just writing this now makes something blindingly obvious. Scales occupy about 15% of my portfolio now, they aren't really doing much and I thought they should be. I need to go back and look at that more closely to see whether I should still feel good about my money sitting there.

Thanks for the reply, made me think :)

[Biscuit]

funny looking back.

My five biggest punts back in that May-July 2020 period were OCA (largely fueled by this forum), TRA (own research), SCL (own research, and I still feel like it's undervalued), SAN (before I realised what their trend on quota ownership was) and CEN (a few factors).



I looked at SAN a while back but didn't buy. Can't remember why but I didn't think they looked like they were going anywhere.

[Nor]

I'm doing OK on Tra now but what with the 10 for 1 a few years back the price will have to reach $20+ to break even on my first lot (Dorchester Pacific that was). So I'm cautious. I remember back then when I saw the light and thought - hey if finance companies are risky for the depositors they must be far worse for the shareholders. But it was too late.

[toddhunter]

Tina, Turners...Simply The Best https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GC5E8ie2pdM

Hey Todd...if you started using the marketing catchphrase Turners, Simply the Best and had Tina as the main advertising lady, that might be great marketing but maybe sailing a little close to the wind with copyright ?

Nice idea Beagle...but yes suspect a few IP lawyers would get excited about that...also I think there is a large demographic of our customer base who would have no idea who Tina Turner is!

[iceman]

Nice idea Beagle...but yes suspect a few IP lawyers would get excited about that...also I think there is a large demographic of our customer base who would have no idea who Tina Turner is!

Hahaha. Beagle showing his age with his great idea ;)

[nztx]

5 bucks must be on the horizon soon with reluctance of investors to part company with any of their holdings ;)

Tina may have to go into overdrive with the Adverts ..

[pierre]

5 bucks must be on the horizon soon with reluctance of investors to part company with any of their holdings ;)

Tina may have to go into overdrive with the Adverts ..
Bit more showing of age - but do you mean Bachman-Turner Overdrive?

[Snow Leopard]

Bit more showing of age - but do you mean Bachman-Turner Overdrive?

Did you mean, as in, you ain't seen nothing yet ?


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwi-lIXMP5U

[winner69]

Bit more showing of age - but do you mean Bachman-Turner Overdrive?


You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet was pretty good track

Takin’ Care of Business ... six bucks here we come

[Snow Leopard]

Also:

Roll On Down The Highway

Let It Ride

and of course

Gimme Your Money Please.

I think we have got the next Turners advertising campaign sorted . :)

[percy]

Perhaps 'CARS" by either Gary Numan or Fear Factory.>?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSoKp6dRUH0

[Snow Leopard]

Perhaps 'CARS" by either Gary Numan or Fear Factory.>?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CSoKp6dRUH0

Let's keep it real please!

[nztx]

Bit more showing of age - but do you mean Bachman-Turner Overdrive?



Hahaha .. yes I remember them too ! :)

[nztx]

*Doubled posting removed*

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Will be interesting to see what impact the new Feebate scheme confirmed today will have on the used car market. New to NZ cars, both new and used, can now have their prices impacted by either a fee (high polluting vehicles) or a rebate (EVs). Low emission ICE cars I understand will not be impacted.

I think this will be positive for a company like TRA, with demand for used utes/4wds likely to intensify in the face of more expensive new imports of those vehicles. Used EV cars might see some pressure downwards on prices (as new EVs are up to $8700 cheaper) but used EVs seems like a very small part of the market currently anyway.

[Jay]

Also:

Roll On Down The Highway

Let It Ride

and of course

Gimme Your Money Please.

I think we have got the next Turners advertising campaign sorted . :)

After that it will then be Taking Care of Business!

[Nor]

With all the effort and talk about emission reduction in this country it's easy to lose sight of the fact that it can make almost no difference at all. NZ produces less than 0.3% of global emissions. We don't have a dome over us isolation us from the world. And China is still building coal fired power stations, over a hundred of them.

[peat]

With all the effort and talk about emission reduction in this country it's easy to lose sight of the fact that it can make almost no difference at all. NZ produces less than 0.3% of global emissions. We don't have a dome over us isolation us from the world. And China is still building coal fired power stations, over a hundred of them.

yeh quite frankly its crazy all the bad stuff lil ol NZ puts itself through for so little difference.
same when we deregulated. ideals over-ride sensible pragmatism.
look at all that imported coal getting burnt.

TRA going great guns eh. but not quite parabolic yet so still room for that :)

[BlackPeter]

With all the effort and talk about emission reduction in this country it's easy to lose sight of the fact that it can make almost no difference at all. NZ produces less than 0.3% of global emissions. We don't have a dome over us isolation us from the world. And China is still building coal fired power stations, over a hundred of them.

Well, your argument is obviously true for anybody of the 8 billion people on this globe - whatever the individual does won't make a big difference, so nobody needs to do anything - right? Does not make a difference at all. How lucky we are, lets keep polluting the globe and wait for the others to do something against it, shall we - or better, lets wreck the globe - Nor told us so, didn't he?

Obviously - we all need to move, and - by the way - NZ's carbon pollution still counts. We are on place 74 of 209 countries of the largest carbon polluters on earth (2016 numbers): https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-per-capita/

No reason to be proud of, given that our small population base puts us somewhere on place 125 out of 209 - i.e. we are - polluting the globe far more than the average globe dweller does.

We better start doing something to reduce our share of the pollution instead of spouting weak excuses - weak excuses won't help the globe to heal, will they?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Probably not quite the forum for it - but disagree intensely with the opinion that New Zealand’s contribution is meaningless. If every nation thought that way then nothing gets down out of pure national selfishness. If every nation with emissions the same or smaller than NZ also thought the same way and didn’t take any effort to reduce emissions, then that cumulative total would produce a sizable enough total to have a measurable impact on emissions. NZ also produces more carbon per capita than China, and NZ is one of the worst in the developed world when it comes to emissions vs the 1990 baseline (we are +53%, which is higher than Australia (!) and way higher than the US, so saying the world should focus on China is a tad hypocritical. Yes China is one of the major parts to solving the issue, but it shoulbe noted they are much more aggressively promoting EVs than we are.In the past NZ itself received a massive outsized benefit of the global effort to reduce emissions that were destroying the ozone layer over the Southern Hemisphere.

[wagwan]

Agree BlackPeter, fairly naive and fatalistic from Nor. An issue as big a climate change clearly requires collective effort on a global scale - key word there being 'collective'

adjective





done by people acting as a group.
"a collective protest"









Not to say EV rebate system as it stands is the best way for NZ to go about it's effort.

That aside, back to TRA - late disclosure on Friday, CFO purchasing exercising staff option for 125k shares. Good discount to market price, however good to see informed insiders making moves.

[Beagle]

The bleating from the farmers about having to pay another $5K or thereabouts for their Utes is going to be interesting....they should be grateful there's no fart tax for all the damaging methane from their cows.

[sb9]

Looks as though it may hit $4.50 mark today, someone keen to accumulate at current levels.

[Nor]

Well, your argument is obviously true for anybody of the 8 billion people on this globe - whatever the individual does won't make a big difference, so nobody needs to do anything - right? Does not make a difference at all. How lucky we are, lets keep polluting the globe and wait for the others to do something against it, shall we - or better, lets wreck the globe - Nor told us so, didn't he?

Obviously - we all need to move, and - by the way - NZ's carbon pollution still counts. We are on place 74 of 209 countries of the largest carbon polluters on earth (2016 numbers): https://www.worldometers.info/co2-emissions/co2-emissions-per-capita/

No reason to be proud of, given that our small population base puts us somewhere on place 125 out of 209 - i.e. we are - polluting the globe far more than the average globe dweller does.

We better start doing something to reduce our share of the pollution instead of spouting weak excuses - weak excuses won't help the globe to heal, will they?

Would make more sense to follow the lead of them that matter when and if they act. Nobody is going to follow our lead. It's like a few years ago NZ took down all protection for its industry imagining the world would follow our lead and remove protective on agricultural. It didn’t.

[Beagle]

The naughty Beagle goes wandering on a little trip of forethought wondering about FY22 earnings and comes to the conclusion that Todd, Grant and the team are playing silly beggars with us about the 3 year plan which the dog reckons is actually a one year plan to get to $5.

Cleaning out my dog bowl the other day it was so shiny after licking it clean I swear I saw the reflection of the prospect of just on $42m earnings for FY22 which is ~ $30m after tax and just on 35 cps earnings and with years of tailwinds ahead, (Forbar reckons international travel won't return to normal until FY26) and people spending up large domestically my nose caught the whiff or the market ascribing a slightly higher PE of 14 times (given such consistent steady growth ahead) said 35 cps prospective earnings which got me to 14 x 35 = $4.90 as fair value one year hence or maybe earlier ?

Good they make these 3 years plans though which helps cunning hounds sniff out fair value one year hence :) Rating Accumulate, Price Target mid 2022 $4.90.

Looking at the gross yield I think 22 cps in fully imputed dividends is doable this year so that's 22 / 0.72 = 30.56 cps gross which on $4.50 is still a gross yield of ~ 6.8%.

[mfd]

Would make more sense to follow the lead of them that matter when and if they act. Nobody is going to follow our lead. It's like a few years ago NZ took down all protection for its industry imagining the world would follow our lead and remove protective on agricultural. It didn’t.

Now is the time to act then - most developed countries have been reducing carbon emissions for at least a couple of decades (USA, UK, EU). At the same time we've been emitting more and more and falling further behind. Our peers are already acting and we've only just got to the starting blocks.

Or are you only comparing us to developing countries?

[mfd]

Double post

[Blue Skies]

Would make more sense to follow the lead of them that matter when and if they act. Nobody is going to follow our lead. It's like a few years ago NZ took down all protection for its industry imagining the world would follow our lead and remove protective on agricultural. It didn’t.


It's a common misconception but 'They' have already acted & if we don't do something, far from being a leader, we risk being left behind.
e.g. China leads the world in electricity production from renewable sources with over double the production of 2nd ranked country US.
Its just their needs for power generation are so high at present they still have to supplement it with non renewables like coal.
In 2017 China alone, invested 45% of the global investment in renewables and is going hard out to switch to renewable energy not just to reduce carbon emissions & pollution but also aiming for 'energy security'.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renewable_energy_in_China

Furthermore, if we in privileged NZ with one of the highest living standards in the world can't make small sacrifices, how can we ask/expect struggling 3rd world countries to carry all the burden & make all the sacrifices before we will do anything ?

Getting back to Turners, to me this govt shake-up of the NZ car industry will be a huge boost to companies like Turners as interest & demand for alternative vehicles is very strongly stimulated. Already car dealers reported extra enquiries over the weekend & I even found myself looking online at a number of EV vehicles last night before the cricket.

[nztx]

The bleating from the farmers about having to pay another $5K or thereabouts for their Utes is going to be interesting....they should be grateful there's no fart tax for all the damaging methane from their cows.


I think we could manage even more emission savings with all the Mums & Dads walking to pick up their kids
from school, rather what is currently the apparent scenario - 'Everyone shows up each in their
own wheels - Mine is better than yours' twice a day' even for just a few blocks away .. ;)

The green proponents may even require everyone to start living in grass huts again to signal
acceptance of emissions reduction and practice more of the 'my bicycle is better than yours' instead
- which I'm sure no-one will overly object to .. in pursuit of setting an example (hopefully not ignored
by larger emitting nations) .. ;)

Next year's budget has been rumoured to contain Green initiatives towards pedal powered aeroplanes, where
everyone pays for the privilege to fund the grandiose scheme (I suppose a better alternative to walking) ;)

Continuing SP run with TRA - very good run :)

[BlackPeter]

Would make more sense to follow the lead of them that matter when and if they act. Nobody is going to follow our lead. It's like a few years ago NZ took down all protection for its industry imagining the world would follow our lead and remove protective on agricultural. It didn’t.

Just notice that this is the TNR thread ... we probably should move this discussion to a more relevant thread. Here we go:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6726-quot-Global-Warming-quot&p=890090&viewfull=1#post890090

[Nor]

I think we could manage even more emission savings with all the Mums & Dads walking to pick up their kids
from school, rather what is currently the apparent scenario - 'Everyone shows up each in their
own wheels - Mine is better than yours' twice a day' even for just a few blocks away .. ;)

The green proponents may even require everyone to start living in grass huts again to signal
acceptance of emissions reduction and practice more of the 'my bicycle is better than yours' instead
- which I'm sure no-one will overly object to .. in pursuit of setting an example (hopefully not ignored
by larger emitting nations) .. ;)

Next year's budget has been rumoured to contain Green initiatives towards pedal powered aeroplanes, where
everyone pays for the privilege to fund the grandiose scheme (I suppose a better alternative to walking) ;)

Continuing SP run with TRA - very good run :)
Throughout my entire school life I got myself to and from school. Walking in one place, by tram in another and bicycling in a third. So did everyone else. Nobody was met by their mother and probably would have been ridiculed as a sissy if they were. I can't believe the way they can't now. Nor how generation driven-to-school is the one making so much noise about climate change.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Throughout my entire school life I got myself to and from school. Walking in one place, by tram in another and bicycling in a third. So did everyone else. Nobody was met by their mother and probably would have been ridiculed as a sissy if they were. I can't believe the way they can't now. Nor how generation driven-to-school is the one making so much noise about climate change.

not sure if you have noticed, but the average car on our roads are double the size & weight and with half the visibility over the bonnet than they were when you probably went to school, and it is now extremely hazardous for kids to bicycle on roads shared with cars, particularly in cities that haven’t invested in protected bicycle lanes. There is no way in hell I would want kids cycling to school on the same roads I did 30 years ago.

[Nor]

I think it's better to grow up coping with dangers such as they are not magnifying them to something huge through imagination and no experience. Have to face them sometime. The roads to school became so dense with bicycles the cars had to slow down. Same with walking home, kids everywhere no danger.

[nztx]

Throughout my entire school life I got myself to and from school. Walking in one place, by tram in another and bicycling in a third. So did everyone else. Nobody was met by their mother and probably would have been ridiculed as a sissy if they were. I can't believe the way they can't now. Nor how generation driven-to-school is the one making so much noise about climate change.


similar here to, even on worst of frosty days.

Cycleways around these parts rarely see any or much use - a waste of space.
No wonder that we have an element of the population overweight, lazy & can't
get out of their way to even walk a few blocks to pick up kids a few blocks away ..

And of course a gross waste of Energy & emissions output from them too

One can imagine many of these families wont just have One vehicle
but multiple .. maybe with one just used for taking kids to school / sports /
and shopping ..

this is why we have congestion on our roads - whole fleets of economy blind
parents all in separate cars, in their hundreds per school. all descending multiple times a day,
5-6 days a week on the country's schools, sports parks, seemingly too proud or stupid to use
provided mass transport services in many instances - buses or to share.

If we want change then change should first occur in more responsible utilisation
of modes of transport, fuels, etc so we dont see excessive waste first up

After all this band of offenders are not setting a very good example for their offspring
are they ? ;)

[Nor]

similar here to, even on worst of frosty days.

Cycleways around these parts rarely see any or much use - a waste of space.
No wonder that we have an element of the population overweight, lazy & can't
get out of their way to even walk a few blocks to pick up kids a few blocks away ..

And of course a gross waste of Energy & emissions output from them too

One can imagine many of these families wont just have One vehicle
but multiple .. maybe with one just used for taking kids to school / sports /
and shopping ..

this is why we have congestion on our roads - whole fleets of economy blind
parents all in separate cars, in their hundreds per school. all descending multiple times a day,
5-6 days a week on the country's schools, sports parks, seemingly too proud or stupid to use
provided mass transport services in many instances - buses or to share.

If we want change then change should first occur in more responsible utilisation
of modes of transport, fuels, etc so we dont see excessive waste first up

After all this band of offenders are not setting a very good example for their offspring
are they ? ;)

It's probably the hundreds of parents descending on every school that make the roads risky for cyclists.
I wonder if all these expensive and hardly used cycle ways are the result a generation of cyclists who gained no experience or sense on the road while at school feeling scared unless the cotton wool treatment continues.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Can we finish all the anti-parents-using-cars talk on the turners automotive investor thread maybe?

[Beagle]

The naughty Beagle goes wandering on a little trip of forethought wondering about FY22 earnings and comes to the conclusion that Todd, Grant and the team are playing silly beggars with us about the 3 year plan which the dog reckons is actually a one year plan to get to $5.

Cleaning out my dog bowl the other day it was so shiny after licking it clean I swear I saw the reflection of the prospect of just on $42m earnings for FY22 which is ~ $30m after tax and just on 35 cps earnings and with years of tailwinds ahead, (Forbar reckons international travel won't return to normal until FY26) and people spending up large domestically my nose caught the whiff or the market ascribing a slightly higher PE of 14 times (given such consistent steady growth ahead) said 35 cps prospective earnings which got me to 14 x 35 = $4.90 as fair value one year hence or maybe earlier ?

Good they make these 3 years plans though which helps cunning hounds sniff out fair value one year hence :) Rating Accumulate, Price Target mid 2022 $4.90.

Looking at the gross yield I think 22 cps in fully imputed dividends is doable this year so that's 22 / 0.72 = 30.56 cps gross which on $4.50 is still a gross yield of ~ 6.8%.


Just notice that this is the TNR thread ... we probably should move this discussion to a more relevant thread. Here we go:

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?6726-quot-Global-Warming-quot&p=890090&viewfull=1#post890090

Be good if people took their climate change discussions to the appropriate thread.

[nztx]

Can we finish all the anti-parents-using-cars talk on the turners automotive investor thread maybe?


Apologies folks .. but aren't they likely be avid followers & supporters of Tina & the team ? ;)

[Beagle]

I see director nominations are now open. I am sure that Grant would love a barking Beagle on the board to keep him in shape :D

[Louloubell]

A question for Todd please.

The EV car market is set to take off.

My question is if capturing/dominating this market is part of Turners' strategic plan?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A question for Todd please.

The EV car market is set to take off.

My question is if capturing/dominating this market is part of Turners' strategic plan?

I think Todd has already answered this on previous pages if you scroll back through a bit. Essentially EVs don’t change anything for Turners, they will buy and sell them just like they do any other type of vehicle. In other words: Turners is “power train agnostic”.

[Beagle]

Yeap, asked and answered already.

[nztx]

Whoop .. SP quietly creeping north & then Tina shows up on the big screen .. ;)

[percy]

Pleasing to see Salt Funds getting their amended announcement right.!..lol.

[Beagle]

Pleasing to see Salt Funds getting their amended announcement right.!..lol.

lol...Yeah I was reading the original announcement and scratching my head thinking :confused: I might have got out of the wrong side of the bed this morning.

[peat]

yeh I was like wtf?
not pleasing they are reducing tho and from now will become less visible if they continue to do so.

[Beagle]

They have been reducing for quite some time now and have consistently been getting this wrong...just like their original announcement lol
You have to wonder a bit about how professional SALT are if their NZX announcements are not even proof read before release !

[sb9]

Nice touch in Annual Report with Tina at the forefront.

Expect improved result in FY 22 along with corresponding increase in dividends. Impressive to note that their property portfolio is sitting on a whopping 14Mln unrealised capital gain based on conservative market valuation.

Onwards and upwards from hereon. That $5 target is achievable in no time and without a dropping a sweat.

[Beagle]

Nice touch in Annual Report with Tina at the forefront.

Expect improved result in FY 22 along with corresponding increase in dividends. Impressive to note that their property portfolio is sitting on a whopping 14Mln unrealised capital gain based on conservative market valuation.

Onwards and upwards from hereon. That $5 target is achievable in no time and without a dropping a sweat.

Haven't read it yet but it occurs to me that Tina is so full of life and personality she is pure Gold to Turners in the same way that Tammy has proven to be such a remarkable brand building asset for Briscoes over the years.

I hope Todd sticks with Tina over the years ahead and makes new advertisements as and when appropriate to keep the advertisements reasonably fresh and on trend. With her infectious bubbly personality I think customers can really identify with her and she is going to be an awesome brand builder for Turners ! Todd, please lock her in on a long term advertising contract right away ! She is pure gold and a real star !!

Tina's excited, we should be too !
Annual report http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/374512/348957.pdf
Shareholders letter http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/374515/348997.pdf

[Yoda]

Tina Turner. Haha just love it ...

[winner69]

Annual Report .... where's the Porsche?

Maybe next year this Tina gets the Porsche

Where do you see this Tina?

[winner69]

What’s happened to our $5

Seems to be getting further away

[Beagle]

Patience Grasshopper. Good things take time.

[peat]

What’s happened to our $5

Seems to be getting further away

ex div today...

[nztx]

ex div today...



Time to back up the truck again soon ? ;)

[Ferg]

If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.

*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.

[nztx]

If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.

*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.


I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg

Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits

Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross


I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year

Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield

In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross


If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
like 7.78% on current SP


Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates ;)

[Ferg]

I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg
Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.

I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.

*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.

[nztx]

Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.

I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.

*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.

TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?

The Jan 20 2020 div payment saw a slip of approx 20c between Ex & Pymt date of 4.0 cps + Tax credits
then there was the larger slide into the Covid-19 lockdown trough

[peat]

TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?



well timed post considering todays slip back.

[winner69]

Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/375649/350331.pdf

[Beagle]

Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/375649/350331.pdf

He's not a young man anymore. Probably buying his family a holiday home somewhere...hopefully not lakefront in Queenstown ;)

[RTM]

Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/375649/350331.pdf

Yeah…I reckon it’s good to see. Still got 2.2 mil shares. Not exactly no skin in the game. Bit of a laugh if he’s investing in real estate. Might be a nice boat. With inflation starting to rear its head, one wouldn’t like to be holding to much cash.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sadly had to bail on this position recently - had a better opportunity identified and needed to choose which of my other investments to quit - TRA sort of was the prime candidate to liquidate ironically because it had done so well already, at $4.50 it was close to managements recent aspiration of $5, and with the rising price the yield was looking less attractive compared to other holdings.

It was a nice ride, but had to drive off into the sunset away from the TRA party for now. Might return in future though.

would help if management set some bigger long term aspirations (I was hoping entering the Australian market would be it, but that doesn’t sound like it’s on the radar anytime soon).

[winner69]

Byrnes sold 215k shares for average $4.46 ..... and he gets the 6 cents divie as well in week or so.....well done that man

His sales were 65% of the volume traded in that period

been a bit of selling last few days .... another day like today and it'll be $3 something

[nztx]

Gez - the market is a sea of red ink on closing today

what happen - did we get another lockdown ? ;)

[winner69]

Gez - the market is a sea of red ink on closing today

what happen - did we get another lockdown ? ;)

Maybe Reserve Bank spooked the market ....otherwise I have no idea

[BlackPeter]

Sadly had to bail on this position recently - had a better opportunity identified and needed to choose which of my other investments to quit - TRA sort of was the prime candidate to liquidate ironically because it had done so well already, at $4.50 it was close to managements recent aspiration of $5, and with the rising price the yield was looking less attractive compared to other holdings.

It was a nice ride, but had to drive off into the sunset away from the TRA party for now. Might return in future though.

would help if management set some bigger long term aspirations (I was hoping entering the Australian market would be it, but that doesn’t sound like it’s on the radar anytime soon).

Not quite sure this would do the company or the share price any good. Ways more NZ companies around who came back from Australia with a bloody nose rather than with a bag of dosh.

The risks I see:
Turners have no relevant name / brand / business experience in Australia, they would have to deal with different rules and authorities and the unions over there play a different tune as well. As well - plenty of competition who already knows the rules of the game.

Any benefits? Not sure - which advantages would a NZ used car dealer have in Australia?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not quite sure this would do the company or the share price any good. Ways more NZ companies around who came back from Australia with a bloody nose rather than with a bag of dosh.

The risks I see:
Turners have no relevant name / brand / business experience in Australia, they would have to deal with different rules and authorities and the unions over there play a different tune as well. As well - plenty of competition who already knows the rules of the game.

Any benefits? Not sure - which advantages would a NZ used car dealer have in Australia?

it’s more about future growth prospects for me. Australia is 5 times the size of the NZ market, so Turners wouldn’t have to achieve very high penetration to significantly increase its turnover. There is only so much Turners can grow in NZ, given it already is present in all the main centers, Australia would seem the obvious next step.

[pierre]

Any benefits? Not sure - which advantages would a NZ used car dealer have in Australia?

Maybe whiter shoes? Not so much red soil in NZ. :D

[percy]

I doubt Neville Crichton is the only NZ car dealer who has made millions in Australia.
Yes TRA did look at Australia a few years ago.Also looked at new vehicle dealerships too.Walked away from both.

ps Paul Byrnes did sell some shares two or three years ago to develop a restaurant.Not sure whether it was a building or building and restaurant business.

[Nor]

I remember way back when the price was crashing he was buying. I would think he would still be at a loss on those given the 10 for 1 consolidation. Also remember that immediately after DPC came out of moratorium the board voted him a large financial assistance to buy more.

[Baa_Baa]

TRA's had a really good run since the Board pronounced their SP as underpriced, but all good runs have a breather at some stage and this looks like that stage for TRA now. The recent decline is forming a curve down, i.e. not a straight trend line down but a curve down of greater falls each day to lower lows.

Five days ago the 'Supertrend' indicator flashed a sell signal, the first since March and here we are now with a SP close under the 50MA, albeit right on RSI oversold. There's heaps of technical supports but it would be sad to see this retrace to the notable 200MA at $3.35.

Not sure what it would take to reverse the current sentiment which looks like profit taking (using industry slang).

[Biscuit]

T...... it would be sad to see this retrace to the notable 200MA at $3.35.....

Unless it reflects a change in the business, the lower the sp the better as far as I am concerned. I really start to feel uneasy with all these high share prices.

[mikelee]

Unless it reflects a change in the business, the lower the sp the better as far as I am concerned. I really start to feel uneasy with all these high share prices.

yeah, especially with companies like AIA...outrageous too that oil prices have gone up so much with international borders still largely closed

[Rawz]

it’s more about future growth prospects for me. Australia is 5 times the size of the NZ market, so Turners wouldn’t have to achieve very high penetration to significantly increase its turnover. There is only so much Turners can grow in NZ, given it already is present in all the main centers, Australia would seem the obvious next step.

Turners can 3x their current size, i.e 50 used car dealerships and only then they would start to have good national coverage. At this point they would be a billion dollar company and maybe just maybe be in a position to start looking at Australia but like BlackPeter says it is a completely different beast over their and plenty of NZ companies have lost a lot of shareholder money over there.

Turners only have 18 yards around the country. Toyota have 56.

[Beagle]

The run up to ~ $4.50 was very fast and it was a bit over-bought at that level. Taking a breather in an uptrend is a healthy thing. I remain very confident that their three year plan will generate strong growth in earnings per share.

[Ggcc]

The run up to ~ $4.50 was very fast and it was a bit over-bought at that level. Taking a breather in an uptrend is a healthy thing. I remain very confident that their three year plan will generate strong growth in earnings per share.
If lockdowns persists around the world I see TRA hitting $5 by the end of this year. No one will be travelling and just about everyone wants to spend

[Beagle]

If lockdowns persists around the world I see TRA hitting $5 by the end of this year. No one will be travelling and just about everyone wants to spend

I'm not going to try and be too prescriptive about timing around the $5 mark but one key theme I am investing around is that international travel will not return to normal for many years.
In normal times around $10 Billion per annum is spent overseas by N.Z. residents. Much of that will be spent here and retailers like WHS, HLG and TRA will enjoy strong and enduring tailwinds. I'm betting big on this in all three stocks mentioned.

[Rawz]

I'm not going to try and be too prescriptive about timing around the $5 mark but one key theme I am investing around is that international travel will not return to normal for many years.
In normal times around $10 Billion per annum is spent overseas by N.Z. residents. Much of that will be spent here and retailers like WHS, HLG and TRA will enjoy strong and enduring tailwinds. I'm betting big on this in all three stocks mentioned.

Add MHJ to that list.

Agree with your initial comment on the timing of $5. People getting caught up in the race to it. It will happen just let management execute and buy the dips that are generously presented :)

[Ggcc]

I'm not going to try and be too prescriptive about timing around the $5 mark but one key theme I am investing around is that international travel will not return to normal for many years.
In normal times around $10 Billion per annum is spent overseas by N.Z. residents. Much of that will be spent here and retailers like WHS, HLG and TRA will enjoy strong and enduring tailwinds. I'm betting big on this in all three stocks mentioned.
I’m not too worried about the timing as well, as I am well aware people have underestimated this virus over and over again. I was one of them.

For now I’m focusing on renovations to my house, because it gives me a better way to enjoy life at home, a better mental health attitude.

I have so many friends that have been itching to travel. They have now started looking at cars for a way to feel like they are living.

I think we will surpass $5 by the end of the year, as a general statement and it will go higher next year if things continue with lockdowns FOMO will kick in.

I have no intention to sell any shares I own in TRA.

[Beagle]

I agree that there is a real tendency for people to want to live for today because who knows what tomorrow will bring. I did a ton of research on new campervans earlier this year and read 101 reviews and reached a conclusion about what I thought was the best model for us. I spoke with the importer 3 days before the Caravan and Motorhome show in Auckland and he said, don't worry, we have 5 of that model coming in November, there's not going to be a problem. By the time I arrived at the show on Saturday morning for my first personal inspection to confirm my purchase they had all sold out.

They have more coming in 2022 but can't give me a price or date due to exploding shipping rates and possible further lockdowns in Germany. One thing is for sure...its going to be a LOT more than $178,000 that I was hoping to buy one for at the show, most probably well over $200,000 :( We hope to hire that model this summer and decide from there.
We need to be absolutely sure this is the right one for us if we're going to go north of $200K.

[Biscuit]

I agree that there is a real tendency for people to want to live for today because who knows what tomorrow will bring. I did a ton of research on new campervans earlier this year and read 101 reviews and reached a conclusion about what I thought was the best model for us. I spoke with the importer 3 days before the Caravan and Motorhome show in Auckland and he said, don't worry, we have 5 of that model coming in November, there's not going to be a problem. By the time I arrived at the show on Saturday morning for my first personal inspection to confirm my purchase they had all sold out.

They have more coming in 2022 but can't give me a price or date due to exploding shipping rates and possible further lockdowns in Germany. One thing is for sure...its going to be a LOT more than $178,000 that I was hoping to buy one for at the show, most probably well over $200,000 :( We hope to hire that model this summer and decide from there.
We need to be absolutely sure this is the right one for us if we're going to go north of $200K.

2-person tent from the warehouse start from $32 - available now!

[MauroNZ]

I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg

Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits

Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross


I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year

Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield

In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross


If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
like 7.78% on current SP


Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates ;)

Thank you for the calculations shared as I'm considering this one because of the dividends.

[Beagle]

I am forecasting 22 cps in dividends for FY22 (22 / 0.72) = 30.56 cps gross. On $4.25 that gives a forecast 7.2% gross yield and I am expecting growth in earnings and dividends for the foreseeable future after that. This for a stock with a FY21 historical PE of 13.2, forecast FY22 PE of about 12. I think these are compelling metrics.

[peat]

yeh couldnt believe the opportunity yesterday picked up some more at 412, thx Mr Market.

[Beagle]

yeh couldnt believe the opportunity yesterday picked up some more at 412, thx Mr Market.

Well done ! I was a bit more circumspect and hoping to steal some for $4.00.

Used cars up a whopping 14% in the last year https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125733642/90-chance-of-august-rate-hike-after-inflation-balloons-to-33

[winner69]

Jeez, Turners dish out the cash pretty regularly eh

Shout myself something tomorrow

[Louloubell]

Craigs is optimistic about TRA in their latest report. They make up 10% of my portfolio. Growth and a good dividend return. What else do you want?

[peat]

Craigs is optimistic about TRA in their latest report. They make up 10% of my portfolio. Growth and a good dividend return. What else do you want?

I distinctly recall them not being so previously (when the share price was a lot lower).
However it is good for holders when a major broker who controls a lot of wealth says nice things, and just maybe they mean it.
Although, perhaps they loaded up when they were dissing it and are now selling into the rally. You never know.

[Davexl]

Well done ! I was a bit more circumspect and hoping to steal some for $4.00.

Used cars up a whopping 14% in the last year https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125733642/90-chance-of-august-rate-hike-after-inflation-balloons-to-33

Enjoy the 2nd hand car market boom while these chip shortages exist for at least another year yet IMO...also from Bloomberg...

"Take a look at cars to see the extent of the impact of supply chain shortages and the inventory drawdown on the GDP figure. We know that a shortage of semiconductors has hit car production and helped spark the surge in demand for used cars that has pushed up inflation. If fewer cars are being produced, then existing inventories of vehicles get drawn down to satisfy demand. Domestic auto inventories in the U.S. are now at their lowest since records began in 1967. By Barclays' estimates, motor vehicles accounted for about half of the total decline in U.S. inventories in the second-quarter. That means if the semiconductor shortage were to ease, you might expect to see a sizeable restocking of cars, which would in turn add a lot to GDP.

Here's why it's going to take another year at least, also from Bloomberg:
The Chip Shortage Keeps Getting Worse. Why Can’t We Just Make More? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-chip-production-why-hard-to-make-semiconductors/?srnd=premium-asia

[Davexl]

Further delays favouring used car sales:

"Chip shortages that have held back automakers and computer manufacturers are getting worse (https://link.mail.bloombergbusiness.com/click/24707224.94201/aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmxvb21iZXJnLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FydGljbG VzLzIwMjEtMDgtMTAvY2hpcC1kZWxpdmVyeS10aW1lLXN1cnBh c3Nlcy0yMC13ZWVrcy1pbi1uby1zaWduLXNob3J0YWdlLWVhc2 luZz9jbXBpZD1CQkQwODEwMjFfTUtUJnV0bV9tZWRpdW09ZW1h aWwmdXRtX3NvdXJjZT1uZXdzbGV0dGVyJnV0bV90ZXJtPTIxMD gxMCZ1dG1fY2FtcGFpZ249bWFya2V0c2FzaWE/5f07b4f93b6ff31b2742d39dC4cf3d89a). Chip lead times, the gap between ordering a semiconductor and taking delivery, increased by more than eight days to 20.2 weeks in July from the previous month. That gap was already the longest wait time since the firm began tracking the data in 2017. Shortages of microcontrollers, logic chips that control functions in cars , industrial equipment and home electronics, jumped in July."

[Ggcc]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377149

Looking good into the future. Hoping to achieve a 25 cent fully imputed dividend by FY 2024 and the mention of how they paid FY2021 a 20 cent dividend, vs guidance of 18 cents.......... Maybe FY2024 will be a 27-29 cent dividend after their comment of FY 2022 has started well.... Glad to be onboard this train.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377149

Looking good into the future. Hoping to achieve a 25 cent fully imputed dividend by FY 2024 and the mention of how they paid FY2021 a 20 cent dividend, vs guidance of 18 cents.......... Maybe FY2024 will be a 27-29 cent dividend after their comment of FY 2022 has started well.... Glad to be onboard this train.

Nice. Happy holder.

[Beat the Bank]

Great presentation. Very credible plan for growth with a solid brand in a market dominated by small yards. Easy pickings with new retail openings planned. Great diversification with finance, insurance and credit risk businesses as well. Interesting move towards more NZ purchases not imports. Second hand car demand will stay high with our ageing fleet. I know from experience it is getting really hard to sell privately as everyone needs finance these days. Ended up at Turners to quit the car.

[Gerald]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/377149

Looking good into the future. Hoping to achieve a 25 cent fully imputed dividend by FY 2024 and the mention of how they paid FY2021 a 20 cent dividend, vs guidance of 18 cents.......... Maybe FY2024 will be a 27-29 cent dividend after their comment of FY 2022 has started well.... Glad to be onboard this train.

Few chart crimes lol :p

Look to be doing well, but in all honesty there is a bunch of these businesses that have uneven track records (WHS, MHJ, TRA) and have all claimed to have "transformed", but in reality management are claiming credit for factors outside their control. Question is will they be doing as well in 3 years time when the borders are open and all the trapped capital is released (and Beagle has migrated).

[Beagle]

MHJ's transition to stardom will be temporary, the others success will be FAR more enduring, you read it here first :)

[Rawz]

To be fair TRA has changed the most by a mile:

- Rebrand of Buy Right Cars
- Move from mega sites to smaller yards
- Oxford changed from a tier 3 lender to tier 2.

MHJ and WHS just store/warehouse rationalization and getting better online. Don't get me wrong its working a treat. But TRA transformation the biggest and best and will be a great compounder for the next decade imo.

[winner69]

To be fair TRA has changed the most by a mile:

- Rebrand of Buy Right Cars
- Move from mega sites to smaller yards
- Oxford changed from a tier 3 lender to tier 2.

MHJ and WHS just store/warehouse rationalization and getting better online. Don't get me wrong its working a treat. But TRA transformation the biggest and best and will be a great compounder for the next decade imo.

How many 'transformations' has each of those three gone through over the years?

Aren't 'transformations' just the ongoing cost of staying in the game

Question then - how many more transformations to go?

[Rawz]

How many 'transformations' has each of those three gone through over the years?

Aren't 'transformations' just the ongoing cost of staying in the game

Question then - how many more transformations to go?

WHS failed transformations- warehouse extra. Aus expansion- Silly Sally's(?) purchase.
MHJ failed transformation- purchasing bankrupt US jewelry chain during GFC.

My view is the WHS & MHJ current 'transformation' is the cost of staying in the game as you say. Good stuff thou- management should be tweaking the company to stay with the times.

New TRA feels genuinely transformed from old TRA.

[Nor]

Silly Solly's

[winner69]

MHJ failed transformation- purchasing bankrupt US jewelry chain during GFC.

.

Do you recall Michael Hill Shoes --- lasted 3 to 4 years

Michael Hill Shoes

In 1992, the company was ‘looking for a second string to their bow’ and diversified into the footwear industry. MHI settled on shoes, which ‘seemed to possess the right qualities, and [the shoe industry’s] position in 1991 was very similar to where the jewellery market had been when we began to expand our first chain of stores’.8 The board decided to run the shoe business along the same lines as the jewellery business, and believed that existing company infrastructure and office systems would support the opening of a new division. MHI bought three high-end shoe stores in Christchurch from retailer John Craig, who stayed on as manager of the new shoe division.

Hill outlined plans to rename and expand the chain throughout New Zealand, and stock mass-market, mid-range footwear rather than the expensive Italian shoes previously stocked by Craig.9 The company opened a further six Michael Hill Shoes shops throughout New Zealand (including Auckland and Wellington) — many of which were next door to the Michael Hill Jeweller stores. The new stores were fitted out in green and gold, and Hillfronted television advertisements using shoes as props. Michael Hill Shoes initially reported a net profit of NZ$3.3 million but by 1993 company net profit had dropped to NZ$2.8 million, andMichael Hill Shoes reported a loss of NZ$1.11 million.

The stores never realised the revenue required, which meant profit expectations did not eventuate. The jewellery business in New Zealand was starting to ‘level off’, and profits were not being boosted by the shoe stores as expected.10 Shoes were also different from jewellery in key ways which proved challenging for the supply chain — shoes were more cumbersome to ship and had a much faster seasonal turnaround. In February 1994, the board announced that the shoe shops would be closed and allstock sold off. Michael Hill Shoes reported a loss of NZ$2.9 million, including a trading loss of NZ$1.38 million and a capital loss selling the shops of NZ$636 000

[Rawz]

Wow didn't know! Funny how that article says the jewellery business in NZ was starting to level off back then in 1993.

[sb9]

ASM tomorrow, hopefully another upgrade going by how resilient the used car market has been and also new car market as per strong trading results posted by CMO recently.

[sb9]

Moving up back into 4.40's zone with postponed ASM event next week.

[Jonette]

Moving up back into 4.40's zone with postponed ASM event next week.

I’m curious, the recent ads for buying cars are high frequency, high quality and during peak viewing times. They have more cars than usual at present, so a shortage making it necessary to advertise for more suggests high turnover with maybe fewer cars coming in via rental car companies lower stocks over COVID-19

high turnover info may be driving the market up. Certainly buyers outnumber sellers.

[Beagle]

Just running my super sensitive hounds nose over today's price move with the pending delayed virtual annual meeting now online on 9 September at 10.30 a.m.

I swear I picked up the distinct scent of a bigger feed coming (AKA profit upgrade announcement). That nose of mine is seldom wrong when it comes to detecting bigger feeds which is why I'm such a fat mutt lol

[Jonette]

Just running my super sensitive hounds nose over today's price move with the pending delayed virtual annual meeting now online on 9 September at 10.30 a.m.

I swear I picked up the distinct scent of a bigger feed coming (AKA profit upgrade announcement). That nose of mine is seldom wrong when it comes to detecting bigger feeds which is why I'm such a fat mutt lol

I agree. Now that it's finished up 15 cents at $4.48, without any driver, you have to assume a leak, so your nose is simply smelling the obvious. How do people get away with this?

[Rawz]

The TRA chart is a thing of beauty. And to think how much growth is ahead of them. It's going to be a great compounder over the next decade I reckon

[clearasmud]

The TRA chart is a thing of beauty. And to think how much growth is ahead of them. It's going to be a great compounder over the next decade I reckon

I like the way you think!

[Beagle]

I agree. Now that it's finished up 15 cents at $4.48, without any driver, you have to assume a leak, so your nose is simply smelling the obvious. How do people get away with this?

To be fair...consistent selling had this pinned at $4.30 for quite a while and during that time the rest of the market bounded away a bit. All it takes for a price movement like that is for the seller(s) to back off and up she goes. That, and its fairly well known from overseas bourses that the used car industry is going gang busters.

[Jonette]

To be fair...consistent selling had this pinned at $4.30 for quite a while and during that time the rest of the market bounded away a bit. All it takes for a price movement like that is for the seller(s) to back off and up she goes. That, and its fairly well known from overseas bourses that the used car industry is going gang busters.

Agree, there was a small group of large sales sitting there for a week, at least they kept to their price until they were sold. The current depth is minimal, so we should see a rise again today.

[Muse]

I love this company.

One question for fellow holders / or the sensational management team - has TRA ever contemplated a dividend reinvestment plan? I wish I had the discpline to reinvest every dividend but life gets in the way or I wait until I have enough funds to make it worthwhile relative to the brokerage - a DRIP would be awesome!

[Beagle]

I love this company.

One question for fellow holders / or the sensational management team - has TRA ever contemplated a dividend reinvestment plan? I wish I had the discpline to reinvest every dividend but life gets in the way or I wait until I have enough funds to make it worthwhile relative to the brokerage - a DRIP would be awesome!

I think that would be a good idea.

Are you in any way related to the Canadian Moose ?

[Muse]

I think that would be a good idea.

Are you in any way related to the Canadian Moose ?

Them are my cuzzies. Haven't seen them or anyone else in decades.

[Beagle]

Them are my cuzzies. Haven't seen them or anyone else in decades.

Canadian Moose used to roam these parts...he's a pretty bright guy with a beautiful Golden Retriever. If you're his cuzzy maybe you're bright too ;)

[Muse]

Canadian Moose used to roam these parts...he's a pretty bright guy with a beautiful Golden Retriever. If you're his cuzzy maybe you're bright too ;)

ah no direction relation. as to you your second sentence jury is still out. But my longheld admiration for TRA is a good start

[Jonette]

I love this company.

One question for fellow holders / or the sensational management team - has TRA ever contemplated a dividend reinvestment plan? I wish I had the discpline to reinvest every dividend but life gets in the way or I wait until I have enough funds to make it worthwhile relative to the brokerage - a DRIP would be awesome!

You should ask that question at the AGM next week.

BTW, I don't agree; they would potentially then buy back the same number of shares on market to keep from diluting holdings and it is unlikely to be tax efficient, not to mention that the cost of the buy-back may be more than your dividend since the price is likely to go up after a bumper announcement ;-)

[Muse]

You should ask that question at the AGM next week.

BTW, I don't agree; they would potentially then buy back the same number of shares on market to keep from diluting holdings and it is unlikely to be tax efficient, not to mention that the cost of the buy-back may be more than your dividend since the price is likely to go up after a bumper announcement ;-)

aye it depends on how its structured, I guess. I must admit I haven't seen many DRIP's where there is an attendant buyback to offset dilution - is that common / can you point to examples of that? Wouldn't it just be an open market stand - IE the company would buy onmarket and cancel the shares? I'd enjoy that as a good use of capital and further tightens up the balance sheet and outstanding shares. I'm sure its case by case but that's often been tax efficient for companies. Or they could just a vanilla drip and issue more shares, get to keep the dividend to help fund growth, and sharehodlers electing the drip save on brokerage and often get a slight discount on the purchase price. Those who want income can get the income. I've selected DRIPs on nearly all my investments - love it.

[Beagle]

I'm looking forward to tomorrow mornings online annual meeting and expecting to hear good things about trading year to date. Not expecting any guidance now because of Covid but nonetheless I'm a very happy holder and believe going forward there will be even more robust demand for families to own multiple cars, one for each persons transport requirements rather than taking potentially much riskier public transport.

[sb9]

Looking forward to another juicy divvy to add to the cash pot.

[winner69]

Looking forward to another juicy divvy to add to the cash pot.

Surely you not holding cash mate.

[sb9]

Surely you not holding cash mate.

Yes I do, as I have been readjusting the portfolio a bit.

[winner69]

Things still on track …but with a few covid hiccups

Love how they throw in the book value of property is $14m less than valuations …good timing to alleviate any fears punters may have about covid

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/378857/354368.pdf

[Beagle]

Todd and Tina, what a terrific team ! 15% profit growth before Covid. We are well on track to exceeding our target of $45m* PBT in FY24

Very happy holder.

[sb9]

Chair just used the 'I' word or Inflection Point same one used by Sophie of SKT. Must be the buzz word at the moment.

[Rawz]

I like that they are building the property portfolio. It really de-risks the business. HLG own their distribution centers (by memory), ive always liked that. When times get tough not having to pay leases is great.
The finance side of the business is humming. There is so much potential growth for Oxford financing other dealership customers. But it does face stiff competition from Marac and UDC.
Insurance performing exceptionally well.

Really it is just the credit management business that is dragging its feet.

Very happy holder. TRA is going to be a nice little compounder in anyone's portfolio. If they carry on operating as is I wont think about selling until they reach 50 sites. Will look to top up on any weakness.

[Beagle]

Anyone else notice Q1 lending up 87% in Q1 FY22 ? Lending made more money that selling cars last year. Annuity type income, (interest, insurance) now more than 55% of their income.

[toddhunter]

I love this company.

One question for fellow holders / or the sensational management team - has TRA ever contemplated a dividend reinvestment plan? I wish I had the discpline to reinvest every dividend but life gets in the way or I wait until I have enough funds to make it worthwhile relative to the brokerage - a DRIP would be awesome!

Hi Fiordland Moose...if you were on the ASM webcast yesterday someone did ask this question...possibly even you! Grant Baker did answer it and so far has not progressed from discussion into execution to avoid diluting shareholders.

Thanks
Todd

[winner69]

Anyone else notice Q1 lending up 87% in Q1 FY22 ? Lending made more money that selling cars last year. Annuity type income, (interest, insurance) now more than 55% of their income.

The growth in annuity earnings is indeed impressive

Cool chart in preso - annuity earnings contributing more and more

Got to love it

[Beagle]

Thanks Todd, you and the whole team are doing a great job. Keep up the good work !

Love those advertisements with Tina. She has such a real enthusiastic positivity about her, just like Tammy the Briscoes lady has been so good for Briscoes, so I believe Tina will be really good for Turners.

[winner69]

Roadmap to $5

We’ll be there by Christmas

[Muse]

Hi Fiordland Moose...if you were on the ASM webcast yesterday someone did ask this question...possibly even you! Grant Baker did answer it and so far has not progressed from discussion into execution to avoid diluting shareholders.

Thanks
Todd

Hey Todd - blown away you've taken the time to respond! No I didn't have the chance to join the AGM (and wasn't me!) but I am pleased someone would ask. I won't press my case on how absolutely awesome & superb & fantastic & awesome a DRIP would be. I hear you on the dilution - I guess all investors have the ability to choose on cold hard cash or compounding shares. Anyway - will let that seed grow. Thanks again for responding. All the best and good luck to you and the team and hope everyone keeps safe.
Cheers

[clearasmud]

Hey Todd - blown away you've taken the time to respond! No I didn't have the chance to join the AGM (and wasn't me!) but I am pleased someone would ask. I won't press my case on how absolutely awesome & superb & fantastic & awesome a DRIP would be. I hear you on the dilution - I guess all investors have the ability to choose on cold hard cash or compounding shares. Anyway - will let that seed grow. Thanks again for responding. All the best and good luck to you and the team and hope everyone keeps safe.
Cheers
I think most shareholders who take the dividends don't want the Drip as it dilutes their Holdings

[Muse]

I think most shareholders who take the dividends don't want the Drip as it dilutes their Holdings

If you elect to take the DRIP - you aren't diluted, and maintaining or slightly increase their proportionate shareholding in the company. If a shareholder decides they prefer cold hard cash to do with what they wish, then they become ever so slightly diluted. BUT - that cash gets reinvested into the company, increasing its cash base and able to generate a return on that investment. DRIP's are very common, and offered by some of the most blue chip listed companies in NZ. Not a biggie I like the cash dividends. But it's a great savings vehicle (excuse the pun). How many times have you as a shareholder thought "hmm I might not reinvest that dividend as the SP is a tad high" only to see it keep going, or even worse, spend it and not reinvest it in anything worthwhile. DRIP's are common, understood and trackable by trackers like sharesight, lower brokerage cost, allow the company to reinvest cash into the business, and not compulsory. It's a nice way to raise small amounts of new capital, particularly those that have finance books or working capital requirements.

Just musings.

[clearasmud]

If you elect to take the DRIP - you aren't diluted, and maintaining or slightly increase their proportionate shareholding in the company. If a shareholder decides they prefer cold hard cash to do with what they wish, then they become ever so slightly diluted. BUT - that cash gets reinvested into the company, increasing its cash base and able to generate a return on that investment. DRIP's are very common, and offered by some of the most blue chip listed companies in NZ. Not a biggie I like the cash dividends. But it's a great savings vehicle (excuse the pun). How many times have you as a shareholder thought "hmm I might not reinvest that dividend as the SP is a tad high" only to see it keep going, or even worse, spend it and not reinvest it in anything worthwhile. DRIP's are common, understood and trackable by trackers like sharesight, lower brokerage cost, allow the company to reinvest cash into the business, and not compulsory. It's a nice way to raise small amounts of new capital, particularly those that have finance books or working capital requirements.

Just musings.

Don't like DRIPs and that's that. Lol

[Nor]

Don't like DRIPs and that's that. Lol

Second that.

[Muse]

Saw this - semi interesting re tra

https://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-must-go-the-american-car-dealership-is-for-sale-11631332812

[RTM]

Second that.

Might be OK when you're young and don't need the dividends.

I got disappointed with them with Heartland. I was in the DRP for a while...and it seemed after every dividend there was an opportunity to buy at less than the DRP price. So I pulled out.

[Biscuit]

Saw this - semi interesting re tra

https://www.wsj.com/articles/everything-must-go-the-american-car-dealership-is-for-sale-11631332812


Link not much use unless you subscribe to the wall street journal. I gather the idea is that car sales are moving online and large corporations are cleaning out the little guys. I guess that is a trend that would be good for TRA?

[winner69]

UK online car dealer / financier Cazoo (seem to operate much like Turners) has a market cap of US$7.8 billion and they are hoping to do US$0.7 billion in revenues this year. Both use the words digital and fintech a lot

Turners on same multiple would see a share price of nearly $40

Maybe they need to join the NYSE as well

[Biscuit]

UK online car dealer / financier Cazoo (seem to operate much like Turners) has a market cap of US$7.8 billion and they are hoping to do US$0.7 billion in revenues this year

Turners on same multiple would see a share price of nearly $40

Maybe they need to join the NYSE as well

Turners need to refine/prove their model and start moving globally. No point to being a large fish in a small pond. They've got to get out of the goldfish bowl and the sooner the better

[Rawz]

Roadmap to $40 sounds good to me :t_up:

I think the future of new car dealerships is 5 or so demo models on site and you 'build' and order a car after a test drive. Delivery in 2 months time. Get ya orders in now before Christmas! Huge cost savings for the new car dealerships- they dont have to have million dollar floorplan facilities covering the cost of stocking 100 or so cars on the yard. Lease smaller yards, don't have to insure as many, don't have to constantly groom them etc etc.

Maybe this could help TRA.. Maybe people don't/can't wait 2 months for a new car, so they go buy used instead. Or maybe the big new car dealerships that shrink to stocking only a handful of new cars then decide they no longer want to stock trade-ins. i.e no used department. It could be possible one day once TRA gets appropriate national site coverage that we wake up to a NZX announcement that TRA and Ford NZ (or Toyota or Honda etc) have signed a landmark agreement for all trade-ins to be marketed and sold via TRA's 50+ site... through NZs most trusted and reliable used car seller :cool:

[RTM]

Turners need to refine/prove their model and start moving globally. No point to being a large fish in a small pond. They've got to get out of the goldfish bowl and the sooner the better

My holding would be reduced almost immediately if they went down this route. I’d probably halve my holding.
Hi risk IMO.
Disc…Hold, 4% of portfolio.

[Beagle]

No harm in Dividend reinvestment program's (DRIP's) in my opinion. Company could easily lift payout ratio to 80% from 70% and institute a DRIP and their net cash payout would probably be a bit lower than the current percentage which would give them more capital for expansion.

DRIP's if set up correctly are a winner because those that want to build their stake and wealth over time take shares in lieu of dividend and those that want the cash get more of it because the company can maintain a higher payout ratio without impinging their ability to retain some capital for growth. Shareholders are winners as they get choice and benefits one way or the other whichever option they choose and the company is also a winner as they get more capital for growth. Everyone is a winner !!

[winner69]

Repaying $25m bonds in a few weeks ..the 5.5% ones

Will save them a few bob

[Louloubell]

Turners need to refine/prove their model and start moving globally. No point to being a large fish in a small pond. They've got to get out of the goldfish bowl and the sooner the better


I don't agree with the above. There is so much potential to grow the business in NZ. There are so many small players in the market. Turners have their reputation and economy of scale.

[iceman]

Turners need to refine/prove their model and start moving globally. No point to being a large fish in a small pond. They've got to get out of the goldfish bowl and the sooner the better

Please no. Stick to their knitting in a market they know well.

[Biscuit]

Turners need to refine/prove their model and start moving globally. No point to being a large fish in a small pond. They've got to get out of the goldfish bowl and the sooner the better


I don't agree with the above. There is so much potential to grow the business in NZ. There are so many small players in the market. Turners have their reputation and economy of scale.

Sure, would worry me too, but worry is the spice of life. Its a global economy, if you don't start thinking globally what's the point of getting out of bed in the morning? Prove your model here then start the exponential global expansion. Look at MFT, and they are just a trucking company, any penniless cowboy can do it, but a well thought out, determined, strategy of a well-run kiwi company could take on international competition in overseas markets. What makes you think TRA are not as good as MFT?

[winner69]

No harm in Dividend reinvestment program's (DRIP's) in my opinion. Company could easily lift payout ratio to 80% from 70% and institute a DRIP and their net cash payout would probably be a bit lower than the current percentage which would give them more capital for expansion.

DRIP's if set up correctly are a winner because those that want to build their stake and wealth over time take shares in lieu of dividend and those that want the cash get more of it because the company can maintain a higher payout ratio without impinging their ability to retain some capital for growth. Shareholders are winners as they get choice and benefits one way or the other whichever option they choose and the company is also a winner as they get more capital for growth. Everyone is a winner !!

Obviously have no intention of having a higher payout ratio - Chart in ASM presentation has Underlying NPBT growing 9.5% pa over the next three years ...but divie only increasing 7.7% pa

But that 9.5% is a bit misleading - Reported NPBT only growing at 6.4% pa if $45m is the target

Not that aspirational is it but suppose 6.4% is better than nothing - no wonder they don't appear to need any more capital

[Beagle]

Obviously have no intention of having a higher payout ratio - Chart in ASM presentation has Underlying NPBT growing 9.5% pa over the next three years ...but divie only increasing 7.7% pa

But that 9.5% is a bit misleading - Reported NPBT only growing at 6.4% pa if $45m is the target

Not that aspirational is it but suppose 6.4% is better than nothing - no wonder they don't appear to need any more capital

They mentioned they were growing at 15% before the lockdown. Q1 lending up 87%. Plenty of growth in N.Z. Retail will explode in Auckland when we're allowed out of Covid prison. It was clear in the presentation they are on track to exceed $45m in FY24. $37.4m FY21 with 10% compound annual earnings growth gives ~ $50m in FY24...that looks like a good motivational target that they will probably beat.

Notice how they're not talking roadmap to $5 anymore ? Next year they'll be talking roadmap to $7 ;)

Good company that has spent a lot of time getting its systems right which are now easily scalable. Probably deserves a higher PE than the market is according it.

[winner69]

They mentioned they were growing at 15% before the lockdown. Q1 lending up 87%. Plenty of growth in N.Z. Retail will explode in Auckland when we're allowed out of Covid prison.

Notice how they're not talking roadmap to $5 anymore ? Next year they'll be talking roadmap to $7.

Good company that has spent a lot of time getting its systems right which are now easily scalable. Probably deserves a higher PE than the market is according it.

But when tell a great story but when they show on slide headed ‘ Line of sight on where we’re going’ that NPBT is only going to grow at 6.5% pa for the next three years no wonder the market is pricing TRA as it is

Not a growth company now ..only good for a yield …not exciting


They tell a great story story ……but dont demonstrate much in the way earnings growth.

[Beagle]

Ever heard of under-promise and over deliver ? l know its a rare thing on the NZX these days.

[Rawz]

But when tell a great story but when they show on slide headed ‘ Line of sight on where we’re going’ that NPBT is only going to grow at 6.5% pa for the next three years no wonder the market is pricing TRA as it is

Not a growth company now ..only good for a yield …not exciting


They tell a great story story ……but dont demonstrate much in the way earnings growth.

Maybe that slide is more about telling a very simple story to the market:

‘hey market, we are operating in very uncertain times but still have the confidence to forecast continued earnings growth for the next 3 years. Even though we have in the past had lumpy, hit and miss earnings. we now have full confidence in our business model and can guarantee consistent growth.’

How many other companies on the NZX are throwing out numbers to FY24?

A bit of sandbagging going on in that slide.. always better to exceed expectations. I think TRA will comfortably beat those numbers and true growth will be double digit p.a.

[Muse]

But when tell a great story but when they show on slide headed ‘ Line of sight on where we’re going’ that NPBT is only going to grow at 6.5% pa for the next three years no wonder the market is pricing TRA as it is

Not a growth company now ..only good for a yield …not exciting


They tell a great story story ……but dont demonstrate much in the way earnings growth.

Winner - I'm new here - and I've always enjoyed your posts. But I think you are totally harsh on TRA. NPBT has grown at a 9.4% CAGR from FY18 to FY21, and from FY18 to projected FY24 thats 9.6%. A near 10% growth in profit is a growth company in my books. You are getting a sensational dividend yield and sensational capital growth. business is rarely linear and this has been a well executed turnaround for sure. But a boring old company delivers what about 6-7% per annum - total shareholder returns? You get your FAT dividends and growth on top of that.

Maybe you are just a hard cat to please???

[Muse]

Winner - I'm new here - and I've always enjoyed your posts. But I think you are totally harsh on TRA. NPBT has grown at a 9.4% CAGR from FY18 to FY21, and from FY18 to projected FY24 thats 9.6%. A near 10% growth in profit is a growth company in my books. You are getting a sensational dividend yield and sensational capital growth. business is rarely linear and this has been a well executed turnaround for sure. But a boring old company delivers what about 6-7% per annum - total shareholder returns? You get your FAT dividends and growth on top of that.

Maybe you are just a hard cat to please???

and gosh this is annual compound growth - the mother of all good things

[Muse]

Link not much use unless you subscribe to the wall street journal. I gather the idea is that car sales are moving online and large corporations are cleaning out the little guys. I guess that is a trend that would be good for TRA?

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-end-of-the-car-dealership-as-we-know-it

Helpful hint. For american press - Washpost, NYT, WSJ - look at the site - if you find an article of interest select the headline and search for it. Scroll down and you'll find dozens of websites that have rights to reproduce it for free.

For the AFR - click on the article and the very second you see anything load hit ESC multiple times on your keyboard to stop the script from running. Or if on iphone or mobile, hit the x in the top right corner. You'll get good at it, and read for free. The AFR pretty easy to bypass, actually.

[Biscuit]

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-end-of-the-car-dealership-as-we-know-it

Helpful hint. For american press - Washpost, NYT, WSJ - look at the site - if you find an article of interest select the headline and search for it. Scroll down and you'll find dozens of websites that have rights to reproduce it for free.

For the AFR - click on the article and the very second you see anything load hit ESC multiple times on your keyboard to stop the script from running. Or if on iphone or mobile, hit the x in the top right corner. You'll get good at it, and read for free. The AFR pretty easy to bypass, actually.

Nice tips FM, thanks.

[winner69]

Winner - I'm new here - and I've always enjoyed your posts. But I think you are totally harsh on TRA. NPBT has grown at a 9.4% CAGR from FY18 to FY21, and from FY18 to projected FY24 thats 9.6%. A near 10% growth in profit is a growth company in my books. You are getting a sensational dividend yield and sensational capital growth. business is rarely linear and this has been a well executed turnaround for sure. But a boring old company delivers what about 6-7% per annum - total shareholder returns? You get your FAT dividends and growth on top of that.

Maybe you are just a hard cat to please???

Fair enough moose but my comments were in the context of replying to beagles comment about its perceived low pe multiple.

Growth at 6.4% pa and high payout ratios the market per se probably has it right

[winner69]

Ever heard of under-promise and over deliver ? l know its a rare thing on the NZX these days.

The old under promise over deliver trick eh. One of those sayings that give believers a degree of comfort but doesn't really drive market action.

If anything its a case of relief that results were close to guidance rather than actually over delivering

A few under promise over deliver stocks on the nzx at the moment - share prices going nowhere - STU a good example

[Beagle]

Clear breakdown through 100 day MA on the STU chart but on the other hand the TRA chart is a thing of real beauty with a lovely strong ongoing uptrend remaining intact from July 2020.

FA and TA look very good to me. Happy holder.

[winner69]

Clear breakdown through 100 day MA on the STU chart but on the other hand the TRA chart is a thing of real beauty with a lovely strong ongoing uptrend remaining intact from July 2020.

FA and TA look very good to me. Happy holder.


Hey beagle - you are like that Gladys lady in NSW - her press conferences are really fascinating. Can't watch them now as she has packed a sad and not going to do as many now.

She answers questions for more than half an hour but never really answers the question - just goes back to her narrative etc etc ....but the narrative changes every now and again as things change

Sorry mate

[Beagle]

Okay fair enough I will endeavor to answer your question mate. So the 6.4% thing v 9.5%. Hard to say...maybe they were going off the profit for FY21 excluding Covid support ?

The important thing to note from last weeks annual meeting was profit was growing at 15% before the lockdown and they feel they are on track to exceed the $45m target in FY24.

For what its worth my thinking is the demand for personal transportation (as compared to public) will remain incredibly strong for the foreseeable future and the reality is that most families can't afford to buy a new car. I think they will beat $50m for FY24.

[winner69]

For what its worth my thinking is the demand for personal transportation (as compared to public) will remain incredibly strong for the foreseeable future and the reality is that most families can't afford to buy a new car. I think they will beat $50m for FY24.

Interesting article with a few insights / charts about global car buying trends …even the comments on mobility are interesting


https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/marketing-and-sales/our-insights/how-consumers-behavior-in-car-buying-and-mobility-changes-amid-covid-19?cid=app

Link should work but if not Google - Car buying is on again, and mobility is picking up

[Beagle]

Interesting article, thanks for sharing.

[winner69]

NZ Automotive say lockdown hurting a bit

Don’t make much money do they

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZA/379115/354691.pdf

[BlackPeter]

NZ Automotive say lockdown hurting a bit

Don’t make much money do they

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZA/379115/354691.pdf

I guess "nomen est omen". Their brand is "2 cheap cars". Pretty clear that they can't make much profit, if they sell their cars too cheap, can they?

Good that this is not Turners problem ... ;);

[Rawz]

Their finance arm (NZ Motor Finance) probably going to have the same pains Oxford Finance had prior to their pivot to financing customers with a higher credit score. Not sure NZ motor Finance will be able to pivot thou- because of the target market 2 cheap cars have.

[RTM]

Sure, would worry me too, but worry is the spice of life. Its a global economy, if you don't start thinking globally what's the point of getting out of bed in the morning? Prove your model here then start the exponential global expansion. Look at MFT, and they are just a trucking company, any penniless cowboy can do it, but a well thought out, determined, strategy of a well-run kiwi company could take on international competition in overseas markets. What makes you think TRA are not as good as MFT?

" Group 1 is an international, publicly traded Fortune 500 company that currently owns and operates 188 automotive dealerships, 242 franchises, and 48 collision centers in the United States, the United Kingdom and Brazil, and which offers 32 brands of automobiles. "

Biscuit, your suggestion still worrying me.....Above just came across my desk...yep....I'd be real nervous about Turners jumping out into the international 2nd Hand Car Sales business and trying to compete against the likes of this. And then on top of that...are they competing as a finance company or a used car retailer ?

[sb9]

Good write up in today's NBR...
Number of used car dealers drops as squeeze goes on second-hand supply (https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/231773)
Supply issues will also keep prices for used cars elevated for years to come, says Turners CEO. (https://www.nbr.co.nz/node/231773)

[sb9]

First quarter divvy should be announced anytime now me thinks.

[peat]

they got rid of the case against them even if their counterclaims werent successful.