TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[Ggcc]

Using sales from Waka Kotahi - https://nzta.govt.nz/resources/new-zealand-motor-vehicle-register-statistics/existing-fleet/

General Trader Sales look poor since July 2021 when the Auckland lockdown started, NOTE, this includes all traders, and many such as 2Cheapcars (NZA.NZ) stopped selling entirely. Turners stock was reduced severely in Oct, so they may have had a boomer quarter, they are the biggest trader, but in lockdown they don't drive the trader data.

Dunno yet, I'm waiting to see the next results to see if my assumptions hold - I upkeep an interesting data set.

13605
Remember that turners are currently the go to for loans for lots of dealers and are not reliant on car sales alone. That is why they are a hold in my books

[Jonette]

Remember that turners are currently the go to for loans for lots of dealers and are not reliant on car sales alone. That is why they are a hold in my books

Totally agree, which is why I have a healthy loan AND Insurance forecast for them

[Grimy]

I hope the Westgate branch are selling some stock. I pass them every so often and don't think I've ever seen a person on the yard. The place looked full of vehicles today.

[nztx]

They've been eerily quiet lately. Hoping for a decent upgrade as part of the announcement.


Tina's been hard out though..

Wonder if she's fronting for the Divie news delivery as well this time ? ;)

[DazRaz]

Upgraded guidance is good news. Plus an expected div increase.

[DeathByWarriors]

And there's our upgrade http://www.nzx.com/announcements/388687

[DeathByWarriors]

I see the government has announced changes to the CCCFA this morning, which should also be good news for Turners

[winner69]

Suppose it’s just Todd being modest (even though he used the word record) but increasing guidance from 40m to 42m to 42m to 43m is a round about way of saying slightly above guidance at 42m plus a bit.

At least everybody is happy now …and things still trucking along nicely.

[Louloubell]

Yep to trucking along nicely. Pressure on the car market but increasing market share.

[Beagle]

Excellent ! Very pleased indeed with that in these uncertain times. Todd and Tina are a top team !
Mid point of previous guidance was $41m and mid point of upgraded guidance is $42.5m so a pretty decent upgrade considering the extraordinary times we live in. Dividend upgrade guidance is also most welcome ! Perhaps a little surprised they didn't declare the dividend today like they did last year but the timing makes no difference to me.
$4 looks very cheap to me.

[pierre]

"..full year dividends of at least 23 cents" indicates they might even be thinking about 24 cents if the positive results continue.

[Rawz]

Excellent ! Very pleased indeed with that in these uncertain times. Todd and Tina are a top team !
Mid point of previous guidance was $41m and mid point of upgraded guidance is $42.5m so a pretty decent upgrade considering the extraordinary times we live in. Dividend upgrade guidance is also most welcome ! Perhaps a little surprised they didn't declare the dividend today like they did last year but the timing makes no difference to me.
$4 looks very cheap to me.

Agree. EPS growing. Dividends growing. Definitely not overpriced sitting at a P/E of ~11. Cant ask for much more in these times.

The brand is strong. Big runway of growth ahead to open new dealerships and expand Oxford & insurance business into outside dealerships.

This is a solid company executing on what they said they would do. A long term hold for me and sitting at my no. 2 holding. Continued proven eps and dps growth could see p/e expansion in the coming years (if interest rates/ inflation settle down)

[Beagle]

I see the government has announced changes to the CCCFA this morning, which should also be good news for Turners

Here's a Herald article about that https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/governments-controversial-home-lending-rules-minister-david-clark-announces-tweaks-less-than-four-months-after-law-change/KZVSLT33CTQIRCT6Z2PI7BFGVQ/

Agree that 24 cps fully imputed is on the cards for FY23 = 33.3 cps / $4.00 = 8.3% gross yield !
Current year earnings at mid point of forecast of $42.5m NPBT = ~ $30.6m after tax and on 86.07m shares = eps of 35.55 cps. Current year PE of 400/35.55 = 11.25 !

Screams "cheep" louder than a Budgie !

[777]

Perhaps a little surprised they didn't declare the dividend today like they did last year but the timing makes no difference to me.
$4 looks very cheap to me.

Remember that they paid the April dividend in March last year to avoid the 39c tax rate in April for those affected.

[Jonette]

Screams "cheep" louder than a Budgie !

I am struggling to see why it is so cheap, I do an intrinsic value calculation on all my stock (which I find tends to revert to the growth of the market each stock is in rather than the company). In TRA's case if you assume an intrinsic value of $4.00, the growth rate needs to be about 1.5%, but we consistently see Turners growth well above that, the latest forecast growth is 13%.

Ie, Turners is valued as though it were just operating, not as a growth business, ignoring the potential growth of more sites such as the upcoming Nelson site, as well as growth from continuing operations due to the software the company is utilising.

[Beagle]

I was just reading the latest experts report that Covid could have a long tail. Transport in the safety of one's own car has never looked more attractive and that's not going to change anytime soon ! Hands up all those happy to get onboard public transport or a plane at present :eek2:

This is my #1 NZX position and I remain confident that Todd, Tina and the team are going to deliver the goods in the years ahead. Todd's clearly a man who is firing on all cylinders and their marketing with Tina is absolutely brilliant.

[winner69]

On a Price to Book basis about $4.30 would be a reasonable price, but at 1.5 could be seen by some as pretty stretched

Tra multiples will remain constrained because of the high dividend payout ratio.

[Beagle]

$4.30 looks more reasonable.

[Rawz]

I believe the properties TRA hold book value is much much less than market value

[winner69]

Last March property valuations (conservative of course) were $14m higher than book value (cost). Since bought 2 more properties.

That’s About 16 cents a share extra

[winner69]

I am struggling to see why it is so cheap, I do an intrinsic value calculation on all my stock (which I find tends to revert to the growth of the market each stock is in rather than the company). In TRA's case if you assume an intrinsic value of $4.00, the growth rate needs to be about 1.5%, but we consistently see Turners growth well above that, the latest forecast growth is 13%.

Ie, Turners is valued as though it were just operating, not as a growth business, ignoring the potential growth of more sites such as the upcoming Nelson site, as well as growth from continuing operations due to the software the company is utilising.

You using Ben Grahams formula to get intrinsic value?

[winner69]

Price to Book Value ratio good way of valuing TRA

The chart shows how the market has valued / seen Turners over the last 5 years

Turners is now seen in better light than pre-Covid times with a higher multiple.

However I do think a P/B of 1.5 to 1.6 is about tops for a compny like Turners - meaning current share price not that far away from a reasonable value (but not cheap as)

Interesting that the P/B has started to fall since inflation started to be a worry for investors.


Price is share price / Book Value is Equity / Earnings are Equity X ROE / PE ratio is Price over Earnings .....play around with those and one will see PE ratios and P/B are linked.

[Muse]

Price to Book Value ratio good way of valuing TRA

The chart shows how the market has valued / seen Turners over the last 5 years

Turners is now seen in better light than pre-Covid times with a higher multiple.

However I do think a P/B of 1.5 to 1.6 is about tops for a compny like Turners - meaning current share price not that far away from a reasonable value (but not cheap as)

Interesting that the P/B has started to fall since inflation started to be a worry for investors.


Price is share price / Book Value is Equity / Earnings are Equity X ROE / PE ratio is Price over Earnings .....play around with those and one will see PE ratios and P/B are linked.

W69 your post got me to thinking. As TRA is for the most part a non bank financial lender and insurer, price to book and price to NTA are truly relevant, not withstanding the whack of money it makes from auto retail and credit collections.

I dabble a bit in financials and the concept of 'warranted price to book' or 'warranted price to NTA' are very common in financial services (eg banks, non banks, insurance) as a primary or secondary valuation methodology. Basically, the concept provides for a multiple of book or nta with the guts of the formula being (ROE less stable growth rate) / ( cost of equity less stable growth rate). You can just multiple that multiple to the current book or NTA figure to derive proxy for what the firms equity value/marketcap should be.

It's a nice cross check although some research analysts will use it for their primary valuation methodology for pure play banks / financial instos.

The concept seems to correlate well to current spot prices for TRA on a NTA basis and less so on a price to book perhaps given the amount of intangibles on the balance sheet.

Warranted Price to NTA:

13617

I can't seem to upload an excel file so if any nerds want the excel file PM me.


TRA isn't a pure financial services firm so this approach will be of less relevance to say heartland, but still an interesting cross check. It doesn't suggest any upside to current spot prices.

[Louloubell]

Craigs investment update:
Turners Automotive (TRA) – Has performed very well post-COVID given its leverage
to the economic recovery. Importantly, management have continued to build
credibility through impressive execution of sensible strategies. TRA now has a very
strong brand presence throughout the country, and coupled with its finance and
insurance offering, is able to capture value at each point of the auto retailing
process.
With around four million vehicles in New Zealand, there is plenty of opportunity for
TRA to continue to capture market share. One of the key shifts in strategy has been
the focus on sourcing inventory domestically (capturing more of the private car
transactions market), which has reduced a reliance on imported vehicles. TRA
recently upgraded its profit guidance and reiterated that its annuity income
streams continue to perform well despite the widely publicised negative impact
that the CCCFA regulation has had for some potential borrowers.
We continue to see TRA as well positioned in the market given 1) continued macro
tailwinds supporting the domestic used car market (with TRA sourcing 90%+ of
vehicles domestically), 2) TRA’s expansion of operations into new regions and a
consolidation of registered dealers in New Zealand; and 3) the strength of TRA’s
annuity revenue streams supporting earnings growth through periods of reduced
vehicle trading.
TRA’s dividend pay-out policy of 60%-70% should see dividends increase broadly in
line with earnings. If TRA is able to deliver its earnings path, a ~10% p.a. earnings
growth and gross yield around 6% isn’t a bad proposition.

[Joshuatree]

Car Offer a co in the USA for dealers that want to access inventory that other car dealers want to unload,different cars ,colours etc sell better in other mkts,matched to the highest offer.Car offer take a re $325 fee from both sides.Car offer has 10,000 dealers on its platform.Now planning for customers to be able to put their cars up to the highest bidder. CNBC
Turners could morph into this,may have to,they've shown they are adaptable so far.

[Louloubell]

From today's newspaper, or should I say from today's women's weekly, or Jacinda's propaganda machine:
Armstrong's puts brakes on share float.

I suspect this will create some positive momentum for Turners.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/motor-dealer-armstrongs-parks-ipo-blaming-market-conditions/IJG6Y6IAUVHPTNB6W7NUNDZZBA/

[Muse]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/motor-dealer-armstrongs-parks-ipo-blaming-market-conditions/IJG6Y6IAUVHPTNB6W7NUNDZZBA/

Good. An opportunistic float goes SPLAT.

I doubt there was much interest.

Besides - we already got the real deal right here

[Baa_Baa]

Good. An opportunistic float goes SPLAT.

I doubt there was much interest.

Besides - we already got the real deal right here

I'd say there was plenty of interest and even more as the markets tanked, people thinking they can get Armstrong at a discount to FA .. but the promoters are smart enough to pause, this isn't the right time to cash out, unlike only a few weeks or months ago. Armstrong might be the MFB or CBD of the pseudo finance / insurance sector if they screw up their timing on a listing.

TRA is a much better choice. I don't that think diversifying 'within' this sector will achieve much more than putting a handbrake on ones portfolio.

[Ggcc]

Good. An opportunistic float goes SPLAT.

I doubt there was much interest.

Besides - we already got the real deal right here
They probably valued themselves to high. Similar to MFB

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Armstrong is a slightly different beast than Turners, with a lot of its sales being new vehicles. I think when it comes to new vehicles the writing is on the wall, with many of the auto manufacturers looking to follow Tesla’s lead and selling direct to consumer, cutting out the middlemen dealers. Armstrong will not be winners in that trend.

[Beagle]

Agreed, they are VERY different business models.
More than 50% of Turners income is annuity, finance and insurance income and I understand about 90% of TRA vehicle purchases are local.
Armstrongs face massive supply chain problems going forward getting stock from overseas that have only very recently been significantly exacerbated by the war. I doubt there was much appetite for their shares and / or investors struggled to believe their growth projections.

I wouldn't buy shares in a float with Rick Armstrong selling down his stake. They'd be priced like one of their high end cars and he'd want to take you to the cleaners in the process of executing the deal just like they do with their cars.

[Rawz]

Armstrong is a slightly different beast than Turners, with a lot of its sales being new vehicles. I think when it comes to new vehicles the writing is on the wall, with many of the auto manufacturers looking to follow Tesla’s lead and selling direct to consumer, cutting out the middlemen dealers. Armstrong will not be winners in that trend.

Yes agree, but i think there will still need to be a dealership even if the manufacturer cuts out the middleman.

I would say the future is small car yards owned by the manufacturer that hold 4-6 vehicles. One for each model. If you want a car you have to pre order it.

And then... that means no more used car divisions as its a small nimble dealership. works nicely for TRA as the leading used car dealer in the country. they can form partnerships like they have with the leasing companies to take all trade ins and sell through their vast market leading physical and online network :t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Yes agree, but i think there will still need to be a dealership even if the manufacturer cuts out the middleman.

I would say the future is small car yards owned by the manufacturer that hold 4-6 vehicles. One for each model. If you want a car you have to pre order it.

And then... that means no more used car divisions as its a small nimble dealership. works nicely for TRA as the leading used car dealer in the country. they can form partnerships like they have with the leasing companies to take all trade ins and sell through their vast market leading physical and online network :t_up:

Yup I agree 100%. Current new car dealerships will evolve into used car and service centers primarily if they want to survive. (Still a decent business, but different than being primarily a new car dealership)

[Muse]

Agreed, they are VERY different business models.
More than 50% of Turners income is annuity, finance and insurance income and I understand about 90% of TRA vehicle purchases are local.
Armstrongs face massive supply chain problems going forward getting stock from overseas that have only very recently been significantly exacerbated by the war. I doubt there was much appetite for their shares and / or investors struggled to believe their growth projections.

I wouldn't buy shares in a float with Rick Armstrong selling down his stake. They'd be priced like one of their high end cars and he'd want to take you to the cleaners in the process of executing the deal just like they do with their cars.

Many instos were worried that trends in the Australian dealer market may flow through at some point to the NZ dealer market. There are a handful of current and brewing lawsuits from dealers suing manufacturers like Mercedes Benz for abandoning the dealer model in favour of an agency model all without compensation. 80% of merc dealers are suing Mercedes. So all that hard work & investment in developing their own brand & goodwill (eg 'armstrongs', 'gilltrap' etc) falls away with some disastrous financial consequences for the dealers. Given it was a NZX/ASX float with a focus on Aussie instos, it was pretty bold timing to contemplate an IPO with that as a backdrop and all the other challenges Beagle highlights.

For this current & near term environment TRA's business model is much more fit for purpose

[Beagle]

Quite right FM. What M Benz did in Australia certainly raised some eyebrows in the industry. I think with the insatiable demand for EV's leading to impossible lead times and very small allocations to countries down at the bottom of the world its difficult to believe they could have got sufficient stock to meet their growth ambitions.

For example I hear in Australia the first 2 years of production allocation of the Kia EV6 sold out before the demonstrator cars even arrived in the country.
Everyone is paying full retail and these EV's need a lot less servicing than regular cars so the dealership model with huge infrastructure looks vulnerable.
I have no doubt the lead time to receive supply of a new BMW i4 will be exceptionally long. Already reading that its nearly 2 years in America so what will it be here ? I suspect if I order one it will just be a case of it gets here when it arrives and I just keep driving my car until it eventually does. Too bad if someone needs one of these cars now :eek2:

TRA - "Fit for Purpose", I like it.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Agreed, they are VERY different business models.
More than 50% of Turners income is annuity, finance and insurance income and I understand about 90% of TRA vehicle purchases are local.
Armstrongs face massive supply chain problems going forward getting stock from overseas that have only very recently been significantly exacerbated by the war. I doubt there was much appetite for their shares and / or investors struggled to believe their growth projections.

I wouldn't buy shares in a float with Rick Armstrong selling down his stake. They'd be priced like one of their high end cars and he'd want to take you to the cleaners in the process of executing the deal just like they do with their cars.

Did you also see that money raised from the IPO will also go towards buying property that current dealerships lease. That property is currently owned by Rick Armstrong. So not only does he intend on offloading some of his Ownership in the business, but he also wants to offload land he personally owns to the business as well.

[percy]

Did you also see that money raised from the IPO will also go towards buying property that current dealerships lease. That property is currently owned by Rick Armstrong. So not only does he intend on offloading some of his Ownership in the business, but he also wants to offload land he personally owns to the business as well.

Well I guess the $2mil to $5mil a year his son's F2 drive is reputed to be costing him has to come from somewhere.

[Beagle]

Did you also see that money raised from the IPO will also go towards buying property that current dealerships lease. That property is currently owned by Rick Armstrong. So not only does he intend on offloading some of his Ownership in the business, but he also wants to offload land he personally owns to the business as well.

Interesting...Rick trying to sell "a pup" for a lot more than its really worth, there's a big surprise lol

[Beagle]

Q3 fully imputed dividend of 6 cps declared payable in just 3 weeks time, nice ! http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/389630/367599.pdf
Last date to buy and get the dividend is next Tuesday 5 April.
After the WHS this and HGH are second equal as the best income stocks on the NZX in my opinion as although the yield is a bit lower on both this and HGH than the WHS, both have excellent prospects for dividend growth in the years ahead.

[winner69]

Q3 fully imputed dividend of 6 cps declared payable in just 3 weeks time, nice ! http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/389630/367599.pdf
Last date to buy and get the dividend is next Tuesday 5 April.

What's going on Beagle - same as last year - no pay rise - haven't they heard about this cost of living crisis

[Beagle]

What's going on Beagle - same as last year - no pay rise - haven't they heard about this cost of living crisis

7 cps coming for the final dividend, you read it here first ;)

[Louloubell]

See part of the NZA update on the NZX today:
"The Company is continuing to experience increased costs for certain vehicles in Japan along with increased freight costs. A key driver of the increased costs in Japan has been the impact that the semi-conductor shortage is having on the new car market, which in turn is raising demand for used vehicles."

In relation to Turners, I note the following:
1. Over 90% of their cars are locally sourced.
2. I love the last sentence: raised demand for used vehicles.

I think the tailwinds will continue for Turners for the next few years.

[Beagle]

And now other companies will struggle to import their used EV's after the biggest shipping company transporting them suspends EV carrying operations
https://www.autocar.co.nz/transport-company-temporarily-pauses-carrying-evs/
Another tailwind for Tuners who buy about 90% of their cars locally.
TRA still trades cum its 6 cent fully imputed third quarter dividend today. (ex divvy tomorrow).
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/389630/367599.pdf

[Muse]

Many instos were worried that trends in the Australian dealer market may flow through at some point to the NZ dealer market. There are a handful of current and brewing lawsuits from dealers suing manufacturers like Mercedes Benz for abandoning the dealer model in favour of an agency model all without compensation. 80% of merc dealers are suing Mercedes. So all that hard work & investment in developing their own brand & goodwill (eg 'armstrongs', 'gilltrap' etc) falls away with some disastrous financial consequences for the dealers. Given it was a NZX/ASX float with a focus on Aussie instos, it was pretty bold timing to contemplate an IPO with that as a backdrop and all the other challenges Beagle highlights.

For this current & near term environment TRA's business model is much more fit for purpose

I see now Mercedes have announced they are bringing their agency model to NZ.
No impact on our beloved TRA - but interesting re Armstrongs and their (now aborted) rush to IPO....

[Rawz]

Its all good for TRA. Sometime in the next decade I reckon TRA pick up used car rights (aka trade ins) for one of the big manufacturers. It makes perfect sense in my mind.

TRA- priced attractively and long runway of growth ahead. Love it

[Beagle]

I see now Mercedes have announced they are bringing their agency model to NZ.
No impact on our beloved TRA - but interesting re Armstrongs and their (now aborted) rush to IPO....

Was always going to happen. N.Z. a minnow market for Daimler and most head office functions for our market are run out of Australia.
I'd wager Rick Armstrong already had it confirmed that agency model would be rolled out here. How many other European manufacturers will follow suit ? Sorry Rick, the market was too smart to buy your "Pup" and the growth forecasts were laughable, (straight out of the MFB playbook).

TRA rocks on. Happy holder.

[percy]

Was always going to happen. N.Z. a minnow market for Daimler and most head office functions for our market are run out of Australia.
I'd wager Rick Armstrong already had it confirmed that agency model would be rolled out here. How many other European manufacturers will follow suit ? Sorry Rick, the market was too smart to buy your "Pup" and the growth forecasts were laughable, (straight out of the MFB playbook).

TRA rocks on. Happy holder.

TRA have gone from being "the poor cousin" in the motor industry to "the Rock Star".
In Aussie already Holden,Mercedes,and Honda dealers have been screwed.
Rick Armstrong ,Giltrap and others now being screwed.
Wonder whether Colonial Motor Company will be screwed at some stage.?
Well they all had "the good years."

[Beagle]

TRA have gone from being "the poor cousin" in the motor industry to "the Rock Star".
In Aussie already Holden,Mercedes,and Honda dealers have been screwed.
Rick Armstrong ,Giltrap and others now being screwed.
Wonder whether Colonial Motor Company will be screwed at some stage.?
Well they all had "the good years."

Senior leadership team at Turners are doing a good job and firing on all cylinders.

[peat]

the chart suggests it could go to 3.70 but the fundamentals suggest no way. so support is building at 4
i bought a few more, now 13% of equity portfolio!

[Rawz]

the chart suggests it could go to 3.70 but the fundamentals suggest no way. so support is building at 4
i bought a few more, now 13% of equity portfolio!

Thanks Peat

Why does the chart say 3.70?

TRA is a big holding for me. Almost 17% of portfolio. Ticks all the boxes, management have large stakes, priced well (cheap), growing earnings, growing dividends, strong balance sheet, long runway of growth ahead and small cap (<$500m market cap)

[winner69]

Jeez, you guys forgotten about this slide ….the Todd promis

[peat]

Thanks Peat

Why does the chart say 3.70?

because historically that is a support/resistance level, there are no other levels between the current price and 3.70 that have indicated this. except now maybe 4 is developing as support but needs more of a base to call it such now

[peat]

Jeez, you guys forgotten about this slide ….the Todd promis

the thing is winner that a share can perform in terms of earnings growth , yield etc.... but if more people dont buy it then price wont go up.
the market as a whole needs more funds to grow capitalisations and where will they come from? they can flow faster into one company or another but unless the overall flow grows one company's increase will be at the expense of another. Turners isnt a true market favourite so Todd needs to do more marketing

I am negative on the sharemarket overall because I think money flow into it has slowed
Turners needs to increase its market share with stockmarket investors as well as used car buyers.

[Rawz]

If more people don’t buy it then that earnings growth, yield etc you talk about will become amazingly attractive.

Poster SailorRob always says we should hope a SP drops so we can buy more of future earnings at a cheaper and deeper discount.. think that applies here

[Rawz]

Todd and co don’t need to do anything but grow earnings and the rest will follow

[Louloubell]

Regular readers of this thread will know that I'm a holder of Turners. They make up close to 40% of my portfolio. Like other posters I foresee tailwinds for a long time to come for the many reasons outlined by various posters and myself. My only criticism is the lack of regular updates. For example, how is the new Nelson branch coming along, is covid still slowing down operations, vehicles sold monthly.
A (bi) monthly one pager with some key facts. A bit like what the electricity companies do.

[winner69]

the thing is winner that a share can perform in terms of earnings growth , yield etc.... but if more people dont buy it then price wont go up.
the market as a whole needs more funds to grow capitalisations and where will they come from? they can flow faster into one company or another but unless the overall flow grows one company's increase will be at the expense of another. Turners isnt a true market favourite so Todd needs to do more marketing

I am negative on the sharemarket overall because I think money flow into it has slowed
Turners needs to increase its market share with stockmarket investors as well as used car buyers.

Hadn'treally thought about it before but maybe a cost pf living crisis does stop slow down the amount of cash flowing into the share market ..... and is a brake on share prices

Suppose it's just having to spend more to live and so less to save / invest

[iceman]

A bit more competition for Turners and others coming to Nelson https://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news/128189752/north-island-car-dealership-company-expands-into-nelson

[Rawz]

I don’t really see new car dealerships as competition for TRA. Only sort of. Like apples and oranges, both fruit- but different

[iceman]

I don’t really see new car dealerships as competition for TRA. Only sort of. Like apples and oranges, both fruit- but different

From the article:

"They also planned to sell used cars, as well as offering vehicle servicing."

[Beagle]

I don’t really see new car dealerships as competition for TRA. Only sort of. Like apples and oranges, both fruit- but different

Totally agree, definitely an apples and oranges situation. New car franchises will also sell the late model trade-in's the franchise accepts to be placed on their forecourt but these are typically higher value late model cars traded on new ones as opposed to the typical $10-15K vehicle Turners sells which is their bread and butter. You could very easily make the case that Turners will get more business because older model trade-in's a new franchise doesn't want on their lot will simply be driven down the road and sold to Turners at wholesale.

I think the metrics on Turners at this price point are compelling and I am really enjoying the regular strong fully imputed quarterly dividends, the next of which is due to be paid out next Wednesday and will pay for many enjoyable treats for the Beagles.

[Ggcc]

From the article:

"They also planned to sell used cars, as well as offering vehicle servicing."
Do they use Oxford to sell their cars

[Ricky-bobby]

A bit of a dip over the last few days… tempted to buy some more but they are already a large part of my portfolio…

[Louloubell]

The million dollar question is if Turners can off-set inflation, costs of living etc against their increasing market share. The decreasing number of car yards/competition, difficulties importing vehicles, and Turners increasing their outlets (Rotorua and Nelson) hopefully ( a bad term for any investor) are in Turners favour.

[Ggcc]

A bit of a dip over the last few days… tempted to buy some more but they are already a large part of my portfolio…

Just be patient you might get a better bargain in these strange times. I have heaps of shares in Turners but feel you still need to stay diversified during times of uncertainty, no matter how good a share looks.

[winner69]

RECORD RESULT to be announced soon

TRA share price has caught the bug and looking a bit sick

Hope it doesn’t drop to 350 or so….that wouldn’t beca good look

[Jonette]

That’s a bold forecast 😎

My data suggests you could be right, but what do you base it on?

[Ggcc]

RECORD RESULT to be announced soon

TRA share price has caught the bug and looking a bit sick

Hope it doesn’t drop to 350 or so….that wouldn’t beca good look
I’ll buy some more if it does, of course depending on their future outlook. I’m happy with management and how they under promise and over deliver.

[winner69]

That’s a bold forecast ��

My data suggests you could be right, but what do you base it on?

Todd said so a few weeks ago

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/388687/366468.pdf


But then RECORD has a few meanings eh …and I might have misinterpreted what Todd really meant and it’s not really a record like highest ever. They

[Rawz]

They….?

They.. are growing market share and Oxford is expanding into lots of car dealerships so no worries winner grinner?

[Ggcc]

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-newzealand-by-month

Interesting to see how new car sales seem to be going. Not much changing from last year. Let’s hope TRA gets to benefit from some of that

[Beagle]

https://www.marklines.com/en/statistics/flash_sales/automotive-sales-in-newzealand-by-month

Interesting to see how car sales seem to be going. Not much changing from last year. Let’s hope TRA gets to benefit from some of that

Good information, thanks for sharing. Looking forward to them reporting on 24 May and I am not tempted in any way whatsoever to give any shares away in the current fire sale. Love their quarterly dividends.

[winner69]

This outfit in Australia going to be a billion dollar one soon

Online used cars the game for Carma

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/sydney-based-used-car-platform-carma-drives-forward-with--75m-in-funding.html

TRA a $333m company ….maybe one day it will be a billion dollar company

[LaserEyeKiwi]

So the new $10k cash for clunkers program the government announced yesterday seems like it may possibly be rather detrimental to Turners doesn’t it? Effectively will raise the acquisition price for used cars already in NZ to the $10k amount vs the much cheaper Japanese imports price. Will TRA be able to pivot to importing Japanese cars?

[Old mate]

As I understand it the 10k is only for a low emission vehicle ie ev or hybrid. These are alot more than 10k so will still be out of alot of people's reach. Haven't seen to much detail on this though.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

As I understand it the 10k is only for a low emission vehicle ie ev or hybrid. These are alot more than 10k so will still be out of alot of people's reach. Haven't seen to much detail on this though.

Plenty of low emission vehicles costing under $20k qualify - it includes buying used hybrids and EVs, some that sell for not much more than $10k.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Ok I think we just had confirmation that turners is a bit worried about the new plan - they just had turners management on a one news segment talking about all the “issues” that the plan will have on the used car market.

[winner69]

Share price 377 about 20% off recent high

That’s crash territory ….not just a correction

Downward momentum increasing ….heck how low will it go?

Hope next weeks announcement is better than just a ‘record result’

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Gross dividend yield approaching somewhere between 8.5-9% on a forward basis (~24c fully imputed).

[Beagle]

24/0.72 = 33.33cps gross which on $3.74 = 8.91% Gross prospective yield for FY23.

[Sideshow Bob]

24/0.72 = 33.33cps gross which on $3.74 = 8.91% Gross prospective yield for FY23.

Providing of course they can maintain margins and profits going forward......

Squeeze on household spending, interest rates, weaker currency etc won't help. Then have Govt policy on helping lower income earners into more EV/Hybrids, and some more attraction to more efficent vehicles for others, given fuel pricing.

[Beagle]

Providing of course they can maintain margins and profits going forward......

Squeeze on household spending, interest rates, weaker currency etc won't help. Then have Govt policy on helping lower income earners into more EV/Hybrids, and some more attraction to more efficent vehicles for others, given fuel pricing.

Growing brand recognition, expanding retail footprint, more than half their net income is from recurring revenue streams, (finance and insurance), consolidation in the industry from smaller players being sidelined e.t.c.. I hear you though, there are some challenges out there and that's what's been affecting the share price. I have a lot of confidence that Todd and his team are doing excellent work and look forward to them reporting on 24th.

[Sideshow Bob]

Growing brand recognition, expanding retail footprint, more than half their net income is from recurring revenue streams, (finance and insurance), consolidation in the industry from smaller players being sidelined e.t.c.. I hear you though, there are some challenges out there and that's what's been affecting the share price. I have a lot of confidence that Todd and his team are doing excellent work and look forward to them reporting on 24th.

Not a holder and don't follow the company closely - but clearly a very well-run, quality business. Can understand the trust in management, and how this helps the confidence of holders in the face of macro uncertainties.

Especially like how Todd occasionally frequents ST.

[Rawz]

Like Beagle I too have confidence in the Turners model and management. The branch network has a huge amount of room to grow as well as Oxford finance and the insurance business.

Happy to sit around and collect the divvy.
If there is a crash TRA is on the list of companies to swoop in a buy a bunch more at a crazy discount. Worked well last time in 2020.

Also, if there is a recession the debt collection business should ramp up.

[Beau]

Like Beagle I too have confidence in the Turners model and management. The branch network has a huge amount of room to grow as well as Oxford finance and the insurance business.

Happy to sit around and collect the divvy.
If there is a crash TRA is on the list of companies to swoop in a buy a bunch more at a crazy discount. Worked well last time in 2020.

Also, if there is a recession the debt collection business should ramp up.

Well put totally agree.

[Beagle]

Link for tomorrow's presentation at 10.30 is in this announcement http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/392505/371130.pdf
I'm looking forward to it.

[winner69]

Link for tomorrow's presentation at 10.30 is in this announcement http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/392505/371130.pdf
I'm looking forward to it.

No doubt iy will be more exhilarating and useful than that one you listened to on Friday :)

[Beagle]

No doubt iy will be more exhilarating and useful than that one you listened to on Friday :)

They always present in a highly articulate manner and I never get a headache reading their financial statements.
Analysis on this one is just a leisurely and relaxing walk in the park on a warm summer's day compared to some other companies ;)

[winner69]

Hope they put the ‘Pathway to $5 share price” slide in the preso again

Even if just to remind punters where TRA share price heading ….better than saying that rather meaningless ‘positioned for growth’ crap

And I like the way they say at $5 value still on ‘undemanding multiple,

[Sideshow Bob]

Top Result!!


Turners delivers record earnings result for FY22 - NZX, New Zealand’s Exchange (https://www.nzx.com/announcements/392529)

Turners Automotive Group (NZX: TRA) has reported record earnings for the financial year to March 31, 2022 (FY22), despite a COVID-19 disrupted year from lockdowns and more recent impact of Omicron on consumer demand and operational resource. This resilience demonstrates the value of the strategic initiatives implemented by Turners over recent years to de-risk, consolidate and build more sustainable earnings.

Key Financial Highlights:

• Revenue $342.0m +15%
• EBIT $47.7m up 11%
• NPBT $43.1m +15%
• NPAT $31.3m +16%
• Underlying NPBT $44.1m +29%
• Full year dividend 23.0 cps + 15%
• Earnings per share 36.4cps +16%

Key Business Highlights:

• Final FY22 dividend declared at 7.0 cps bringing FY22 dividend to 23.0 cps (equating to a gross yield of 8%+ per annum based on the current share price
• Record earnings from divisions (Auto Retail, Finance and Insurance) operating in the used car market.
• Market share has continued to grow in Auto Retail Division, with good pipeline of new branches building.
• Market share growth delivering improved annuity earnings from Finance and Insurance divisions.
• Debt load returning slowly in credit management business but environment should be more productive in FY23
• Employee engagement at an all-time high (top 5% of companies using Peakon tool) has continued to increase at a time where retention and recruitment have been under significant pressure.
• Macro headwinds (inflation and interest rates) starting to impact…speed of change biggest challenge.

[Beagle]

Very pleasing indeed. From the call, thanks to a question from some old dog ;) Tina locked in on a long term contract ! You beauty ! Tina to Turners is what Tammy is to Briscoes, Marketing Gold !!

Presentation http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/392529/371180.pdf

[Rawz]

Great auto retailer
Great finance company
Great insurance company
Great debt collection company
Great property holding company

EPS up 16%
DPS up 15%

Very pleasing to read and then hear on the call that they know we are heading into some economic headwinds and have planned for it and allowed for it in their 3 year guidance. TRA will grow dividends and EPS during the downturn..

Happy holder

[Beagle]

Interesting comment on the call, if it weren't for lockdown's and Omricon we believe we would have done $50m Net profit before tax this year !
WOW !

Somewhat interesting little anecdote.
I have a perfectly good car and in the past I have a habit of updating it too regularly.
I ran the numbers on putting in $100K plus my car to upgrade to a fancy BMW this morning and how it would likely depreciate to about half its value in the next 3 years + extra fuel, maintenance and insurance costs or putting that money into Turners instead, getting an average gross yield of about 9% over the next 3 years and expecting the share price to be $5 in 2025, (i.e. putting the money into an appreciating asset rather than a rapidly depreciating one) and the difference between these two outcomes is that I would be more than $500 per week better off investing in other people dealing cars rather than engaging with my hedonistic desires. What I have learned from past experience is after a few months the thrill of the new toy has worn off (hedonic adaption), and one is left $500+ worse off per week and that is not a good way to build wealth and resiliency in one's personal finances !

[Rawz]

Interesting comment on the call, if it weren't for lockdown's and Omricon we believe we would have done $50m Net profit before tax this year !
WOW !

Yes amazing!!

That FY25 $50m npbt target has to be their ultra conservative number... maybe assuming very hard landing.. so they are saying we will grow even when the economy goes backwards

I reckon lots of upside here depending on how the macro plays out

[Muse]

Interesting comment on the call, if it weren't for lockdown's and Omricon we believe we would have done $50m Net profit before tax this year !
WOW !

Aye big, yuge.
But in some respects I’m pleased that didnt happen - smoother earnings, avoiding the big jump that everyone would have questioned on where to next etc. I would have gladly taken the extra divvies though.

Congrats to Todd and the rest of the team at Turners. Shows you dont have to be worth billions of dollars to be a blue chip quality company, and TRA’s business model is fit for purpose.

[Beagle]

Thanks Rawz and FM. I agree 100% with both your comments.

[Biscuit]

......the difference between these two outcomes is that I would be more than $500 per week better off investing in other people dealing cars rather than engaging with my hedonistic desires. What I have learned from past experience is after a few months the thrill of the new toy has worn off (hedonic adaption), and one is left $500+ worse off per week and that is not a good way to build wealth and resiliency in one's personal finances !

Shhhhhh, mate! I'm relying on other people's poor financial management to fund my lifestyle!

[BlackPeter]

OK - just to make sure we don't fall into the GroupThink trap ...

Solid result (revenue roughly 5% above analyst estimates, earnings however (despite a peak) somewhat below estimate ... but maybe the mistake is on marketsreener - for some reason they register some of TRA's data in USD.

Whatever it is - I don't think there is a guarantee that next year will be better then this year. Interest rates jumping, petrol prices at unheard heights ... and nobody might want to buy all the gaz-guzzling SUV's and Pick ups which have been brought into the country only in the last couple of years. Which means less turnover for the dealers and less money in the pocket for any driver (i.e. less spare cash to buy a less thirsty preloved one).

Markets are forward looking. I wonder whether this is the reason Todd is not anymore talking about $5 SP?

Still - great management and interesting business - will put them into my "wait for the next cyclical bottom" watchlist next to HLG :) .

[BlackPeter]

Total Equity to asset ratio is at the highest level since start of my recordings in 2016: It is now at 69.5%, up from 67.5 last year.

While I realize that they are in a way similar to a bank ... just wondering though whether higher debts have just benefits in times of rising interest rates?

[Muse]

Total Equity to asset ratio is at the highest level since start of my recordings in 2016: It is now at 69.5%, up from 67.5 last year.

While I realize that they are in a way similar to a bank ... just wondering though whether higher debts have just benefits in times of rising interest rates?

Probably dont benefit the same way a bank would. Their interest rates might go up but their funding costs go up faster than a banks would (deposits are relatively inelastic) and TRA’s finance NIM % compresses more.

Banks also have huge regulatory capital set aside. When interest rates are zero it earns bugger all. When rates rise it actually starts to earn and while not much as a % assets a pretty big jump in dollars.

TRA do it the old fashioned way - building marketshare, getting good sites, building resilient procurement channels. And being in the right place at the right time with the right model with 2nd hand prices went up

TRA’s credit collection business will benefit from rising interest rates but a relatively small part of the business

[couta1]

Interesting comment on the call, if it weren't for lockdown's and Omricon we believe we would have done $50m Net profit before tax this year !
WOW !

Somewhat interesting little anecdote.
I have a perfectly good car and in the past I have a habit of updating it too regularly.
I ran the numbers on putting in $100K plus my car to upgrade to a fancy BMW this morning and how it would likely depreciate to about half its value in the next 3 years + extra fuel, maintenance and insurance costs or putting that money into Turners instead, getting an average gross yield of about 9% over the next 3 years and expecting the share price to be $5 in 2025, (i.e. putting the money into an appreciating asset rather than a rapidly depreciating one) and the difference between these two outcomes is that I would be more than $500 per week better off investing in other people dealing cars rather than engaging with my hedonistic desires. What I have learned from past experience is after a few months the thrill of the new toy has worn off (hedonic adaption), and one is left $500+ worse off per week and that is not a good way to build wealth and resiliency in one's personal finances ! The problem with having too much money (And loving it) which your never personally going to use, try losing a good lot or giving it away to a chosen charity, you'll feel so much better about things and life in general once you adapt.

[Joshuatree]

"Overall, we are ready for what is next and the business is in the BEST shape it has EVER been."

Percy's "well positioned" needs upgrading; "perfectly poised" or "Extra missionary" or? :t_up:

[bull....]

think TRA have enjoyed some nice tailwinds last 2 yrs , but the highs are probably in i reckon.

[winner69]

As expected a record result ....no surprises

Are TRA shares worth $5 at the moment? --- would put them on a PE of 13,7 and a P/B of 1.8

Chart shows where market has priced TRA over the last few years - maybe $5 isn't out of the question.

But I sense the market tends to see Turners as more a finance outfit rather than a car dealer ....if so maybe a 1.77 P/B is a bit high.

But maybe 2024 share price be over $5

[Beau]

Great result Todd and the Team onward and upward new car yards to open shortly ever increasing happy holder.

[winner69]

W69 your post got me to thinking. As TRA is for the most part a non bank financial lender and insurer, price to book and price to NTA are truly relevant, not withstanding the whack of money it makes from auto retail and credit collections.

I dabble a bit in financials and the concept of 'warranted price to book' or 'warranted price to NTA' are very common in financial services (eg banks, non banks, insurance) as a primary or secondary valuation methodology. Basically, the concept provides for a multiple of book or nta with the guts of the formula being (ROE less stable growth rate) / ( cost of equity less stable growth rate). You can just multiple that multiple to the current book or NTA figure to derive proxy for what the firms equity value/marketcap should be.

It's a nice cross check although some research analysts will use it for their primary valuation methodology for pure play banks / financial instos.

The concept seems to correlate well to current spot prices for TRA on a NTA basis and less so on a price to book perhaps given the amount of intangibles on the balance sheet.

Warranted Price to NTA:


I can't seem to upload an excel file so if any nerds want the excel file PM me.

The warranted price to NTA approach provides a price of $4.13. The inputs are all laid out methodically and hopefully clearly/objectively in the analysis. I was surprised at my derived cost of equity but the NZ risk free rate has shot through the roof (up 150bps or 100% since August 2021) and my derived equity beta was surprisingly high but I stand by it.

TRA isn't a pure financial services firm so this approach will be of less relevance to say heartland, but still an interesting cross check. It doesn't suggest any upside to current spot prices.

That was a good insight back in March FM ...no upside to $4.13 has been the case

What's your view now?

[Muse]

That was a good insight back in March FM ...no upside to $4.13 has been the case

What's your view now?

By dumb luck i assume

We got a power outage so cant fire up the beast. 10 year treasury higher. But have the new balance sheet as well and new consensus will come out this week. Will update after that

Started a similar one for heartland

[Beagle]

"Overall, we are ready for what is next and the business is in the BEST shape it has EVER been."

Percy's "well positioned" needs upgrading; "perfectly poised" or "Extra missionary" or? :t_up:




Older dogs like us love the regular fully imputed dividends for life's little treats. Funds thinks like taking my wife and granddaughter out for a fancy meal at a high end beachside restaurant on Sunday.
Really like the roadmap to annual dividends of 26 cps (FY25) in the presentation materials.
Could be a few bumps along the journey but I'm confident over the medium term there's fantastic growth in earnings and dividends ahead.
Noteworthy too is that property valuation increases this year add 5.7 cps that's not recorded in the accounts and despite the very high yield the payout ratio this year is only 63.2% so they're keeping plenty of earnings back to fund future growth.
"Well positioned" definitely springs to mind.
Todd, Tina and the Team are firing on all 12 cylinder's :t_up:

[Beagle]

...............Deleted, off topic.

[clearasmud]

The problem with having too much money (And loving it) which your never personally going to use, try losing a good lot or giving it away to a chosen charity, you'll feel so much better about things and life in general once you adapt.
Thanks for that pearl of wisdom.

[nztx]

Older dogs like us love the regular fully imputed dividends for life's little treats. Funds thinks like taking my wife and granddaughter out for a fancy meal at a high end beachside restaurant on Sunday.
Really like the roadmap to annual dividends of 26 cps (FY25) in the presentation materials.
Could be a few bumps along the journey but I'm confident over the medium term there's fantastic growth in earnings and dividends ahead.
Noteworthy too is that property valuation increases this year add 5.7 cps that's not recorded in the accounts and despite the very high yield the payout ratio this year is only 63.2% so they're keeping plenty of earnings back to fund future growth.
"Well positioned" definitely springs to mind.
Todd, Tina and the Team are firing on all 12 cylinder's :t_up:


and there's probably still more surplus gas left in the tank :)

[Beagle]

and there's probably still more surplus gas left in the tank :)

Yes, its going to be a long and very rewarding journey with Turners I do believe.
Loved the bit in the call where Todd answered my question about locking in Tina on a long term contract. He said whenever the Tina / Tuners advertisement air's on T.V. the phones get really busy and everyone literally wants Tina to appraise their car LOL.
You can build a really good business on the back of an infectiously positive personality. Tammy has worked absolute wonders for Briscoes over the years and Todd says Tina is working incredibly well.
In last years call I asked Todd if they'd locked her in on long term contract and he said they were working on it. Really glad he took my hint as to how important this is.

[peat]

Noteworthy too is that property valuation increases this year add 5.7 cps that's not recorded in the accounts and despite the very high yield the payout ratio this year is only 63.2% so they're keeping plenty of earnings back to fund future growth.

Baker said 22cps unrecognised property valuations.
But its a harsh bear market, only 10cps increase today.

holding at 12% of my equities.

[toddhunter]

Morning everyone ... been enjoying reading the comments post the announcement, always interesting for me to read how you are all thinking about the company and what we are doing...I did want to make a couple of points and clear up a couple of things.

Government Vehicle Scrapping for EVs Scheme - anything that is encouraging people to take their old car off the road and buy a new one will be good for us. In two respects...firstly we might get to sell them a new car. Probably not a used EV as they are too hard to source, but maybe a new hybrid. Secondly we operate a damaged and end of life vehicle selling business. We have talked to the government on an off over the last 10 years about helping them with this, as we can make sure these vehicles don't end up back on the road. We have a meeting with the Minister of Transport next month about this. Our business is based on churn in the used car market and whatever drives that churn is good for us. Upsizing, down sizing, more fuel efficient...doesn't matter. We just care that people want to change. The used car market has shown resilience through the cycle...it is mostly a needs based purchase for people (unlike the new car market) and anecdotally we are already seeing demand for lower priced cars increasing.

Comment in presentation - I did make a comment yesterday that we would have been very close to our FY24 target of $45m if it hadn't of been for lockdowns in 2021 and Omicron this year. I think Beagle you may have misinterpreted this comment in relation to the new $50m target. Whilst it has been a very good year it wasn't quite that good! My comment was in relation to the FY24 3-year target we set this time last year. Effectively we are two years ahead in our plan from last year. So time to set a new 3-year plan which is the $50m by FY25 target.

Videos - we have done a couple of short videos this year summarising the results and investment case...you can check them out here https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/invest

Tina - we are very pleased to have Tina locked in. The auto business in particular has really benefited from this brand investment and she has definitely connected with a very broad range of people both internally and externally...quite a rare thing in my experience! In the used car business you really do make your money when you buy. Each car is a snowflake and must be priced individually according to age, mileage condition etc. The combination of our large network, the lead generation investment with Tina, the data we are using and the diagnostic tools means we are being presented with more opportunities to buy cars than ever before, and we have better information to make buying decisions. And we are genuinely offering a fast, convenient and fair way of selling your car. This single minded focus on sourcing has been critical...if you buy right the selling really does take care of itself. We get asked a lot about whether this "car buying" service can be replicated...I think the answer to that is it would be very difficult to replicate.

13842

Thanks for the continued interest in the business.

[Beau]

Thanks for your comments Todd / Great photo

[Rawz]

Good stuff Todd. I am a happy long term shareholder. Great photo!

[Beagle]

Thanks for clarifying that Todd.
We really appreciate the whole team's hard work and your leadership, you guys are doing a fantastic job. Keep up the hard work !
If I'm silly enough to buy a new high end European car I'll bring my 2019 Holden Calais V to you guys but I must insist on Tina appraising it ;)

[bull....]

As one of the only ones on here to buy near the bottom my conviction has changed regards share price ( if your into div's there is no argument from me about the appeal) but i prefer capital gains to divs


tailwinds were new car shortages meaning second hand cars were the go to if you wanted a new car now , low interest rates , plenty finance available but these will all turn into headwinds soon.
people will have tighter budgets going into next yr and may trade down but that flows down the whole demand spectrum the lower you go with the lower end not replacing at all and that is if they can even get finance next yr.
As for the EV govt scheme it be just just another PR stunt from the govt wont add to demand as EV are to expensive for most people even after the subsidy.


so i stick to my view of the top is in i will watch with interest to see if my reasoning is correct.

and congrats to todd do a good job

[Rawz]

As one of the only ones on here to buy near the bottom my conviction has changed regards share price ( if your into div's there is no argument from me about the appeal) but i prefer capital gains to divs


tailwinds were new car shortages meaning second hand cars were the go to if you wanted a new car now , low interest rates , plenty finance available but these will all turn into headwinds soon.
people will have tighter budgets going into next yr and may trade down but that flows down the whole demand spectrum the lower you go with the lower end not replacing at all and that is if they can even get finance next yr.
As for the EV govt scheme it be just just another PR stunt from the govt wont add to demand as EV are to expensive for most people even after the subsidy.


so i stick to my view of the top is in i will watch with interest to see if my reasoning is correct.

and congrats to todd do a good job

I appreciate the bear case, I dont want to get carried away here with my TRA holding lol.. (very hard not to with consistently growing EPS and DPS and long runway ahead to expand the branch network and financial services businesses)

Who knows what happens. Maybe we all get the chance to buy again at crazy prices in the coming crash. Maybe the coming crash never comes because its what everyone only ever talks about.

[Waltzing]

EV adoption likely to struggle for the next 6 years according to CNBC interviews as supply problems of critical components strike world wide production.

Maybe this second hand junk car sales auction yard has some legs yet?

[Beagle]

EV adoption likely to struggle for the next 6 years according to CNBC interviews as supply problems of critical components strike world wide production.

Maybe this second hand junk car sales auction yard has some legs yet?

Come on mate, that's a bit harsh. Turners have been helping Kiwi's buy and sell vehicles for over 50 years. I think they're building a really good business.
Superbly managed, excellent marketing, branch network expanding, finance outlets expanding, lots to like.
PE based on last years earnings is only 10.7 ! Arguably the best value stock on the NZX with excellent growth prospects going forward.

[BlackPeter]

EV adoption likely to struggle for the next 6 years according to CNBC interviews as supply problems of critical components strike world wide production.

Maybe this second hand junk car sales auction yard has some legs yet?

I don't really think EV introduction is a problem for TRA. However it goes - there will be used cars to sell.

A bigger worry for TRA will be in my view:
- inflation: consumers having less coin to spend for the next preloved car (no matter which technology). Less coin means less margin.
- high fuel cost: consumers looking for alternative transport and having less money if they still buy the next preloved car.
- environmentally motivated transition to public transport and bicyles: great for the environment, but will hurt TRA's turnover ...

[Beagle]

I don't really think EV introduction is a problem for TRA. However it goes - there will be used cars to sell.

A bigger worry for TRA will be in my view:
- inflation: consumers having less coin to spend for the next preloved car (no matter which technology). Less coin means less margin. Less coin means they borrow more and Oxford finance makes more
- high fuel cost: consumers looking for alternative transport and having less money if they still buy the next preloved car.
- environmentally motivated transition to public transport and bicyles: great for the environment, but will hurt TRA's turnover ...
With the risks of Covid still prevalent does anyone really want to get on a bus or train and breath in others people's expelled air ?
I think you have it wrong

[couta1]

With the risks of Covid still prevalent does anyone really want to get on a bus or train and breath in others people's expelled air ?
I think you have it wrong Yep will be on a packed ski bus 5 days a week for 6 wks this coming winter. Lol

[RTM]

With the risks of Covid still prevalent does anyone really want to get on a bus or train and breath in others people's expelled air ?
I think you have it wrong
I would rather poke myself n the eye with a blunt stick then jump on a bus in Auckland

[Ggcc]

I don't really think EV introduction is a problem for TRA. However it goes - there will be used cars to sell.

A bigger worry for TRA will be in my view:
- inflation: consumers having less coin to spend for the next preloved car (no matter which technology). Less coin means less margin.
- high fuel cost: consumers looking for alternative transport and having less money if they still buy the next preloved car.
- environmentally motivated transition to public transport and bicyles: great for the environment, but will hurt TRA's turnover ...
I believe you know that Turners does not predominantly sell cars that are expensive and that cars are a necessity to many families rather than a choice. Families generally will want two cars even if they can’t afford them. They just make it work.

[Ggcc]

With the risks of Covid still prevalent does anyone really want to get on a bus or train and breath in others people's expelled air ?
I think you have it wrong

I don’t think covid is the reason, more likely people feel they deserve and can afford their own space.

[Beagle]

I would rather poke myself n the eye with a blunt stick then jump on a bus in Auckland

:lol: Best post of the day !

[kiora]

Mean while the rest of the world carries on without wearing masks. Back to near normal in Europe & USA without masks

[sb9]

Proving to be another nice income stock on NZX, 7c divvy payout is nothing to be sneezed at.

[Waltzing]

"last years earnings is only 10.7 ! Arguably the best value stock on the NZX with excellent growth prospects going forward."

with a GLOBAL DESPRESSION coming... when?

might have to start having a better look at nearly every, anything that can pay a DIV....

:scared:

perhaps it time to collect old bangers and send them off to Turners?

I mean under valued vehicles that run on polluting fossil fuels supplied by autocratic murdering camel owning tribes man and war crazed criminals.....:eek2:

i mean ? Do we have any gas fields to explore? Anything anywhere?

Does NZ have any minerals worth digging up beside some old bones of the original inhabitants of these there pacific islands....

Or do all we have is some tree huggers outlawing the very Japanese rust buckets we are looking to make a killing off....

[Beagle]

Proving to be another nice income stock on NZX, 7c divvy payout is nothing to be sneezed at.

Road map to FY25 indicated 26 cps annual dividends by then. Making no assumptions dividends will grow in a straight line FY22 (23 cents), FY23 (24 cents) FY24 (25 cents) and FY25 26 (cps) but if they did and TRA paid 24 cps next year, gross that up for imputation credits gives 33.33 cps (24 / 0.72), which on a $3.80 share price is a gross yield of 8.77% !
By FY25 the yield on today's share price might grow to 26 / 0.72 = 36.11 cps gross = 9.5% !
All on a 60-70% payout ratio, how's that !

Imagine if they lifted the payout ratio to 80-85% and initiated a dividend reinvestment plan to fund the capex, what would the yield be then !

[Beagle]

Yep will be on a packed ski bus 5 days a week for 6 wks this coming winter. Lol

I would rather poke myself n the eye with a blunt stick then jump on a bus in Auckland
Both eyes every day as far as I am concerned for what Couta1's doing LOL

[Waltzing]

"payout ratio to 80-85%"

is MR B attending the AGM and pounding his PAW on the table?

Or are they expanding there chain and require some more CAP X.

[Beagle]

"payout ratio to 80-85%"
is MR B attending the AGM and pounding his PAW on the table?
Or are they expanding there chain and require some more CAP X.
No I'm perfectly fine with the existing divvy policy. I like the way they're reinvesting about a third of profits back into organically growing the business.

[Waltzing]

With the slow down in EV production yet to occur but on the Horizon looks like the Fossil fuel polluting transport system is going to be around for a while.

Plenty of the current rolling stock will find a home and TRA looks like it in a perfect place to make some coin.

It is Retail after all...

[Nor]

"last years earnings is only 10.7 ! Arguably the best value stock on the NZX with excellent growth prospects going forward."

with a GLOBAL DESPRESSION coming... when?

might have to start having a better look at nearly every, anything that can pay a DIV....

:scared:

perhaps it time to collect old bangers and send them off to Turners?

I mean under valued vehicles that run on polluting fossil fuels supplied by autocratic murdering camel owning tribes man and war crazed criminals.....:eek2:

i mean ? Do we have any gas fields to explore? Anything anywhere?

Does NZ have any minerals worth digging up beside some old bones of the original inhabitants of these there pacific islands....

Or do all we have is some tree huggers outlawing the very Japanese rust buckets we are looking to make a killing off....

If we had any minerals worth digging up you wouldn't be allowed to. 🤓

[nztx]

If we had any minerals worth digging up you wouldn't be allowed to. ��


could be some gold bars or other precious minerals hidden in some of the old bangers .. ;)

TRA appear to be a bit of a gem in the world of Car Recyclers - can't not like that :)

[nztx]

"last years earnings is only 10.7 ! Arguably the best value stock on the NZX with excellent growth prospects going forward."

with a GLOBAL DESPRESSION coming... when?

might have to start having a better look at nearly every, anything that can pay a DIV....

:scared:

perhaps it time to collect old bangers and send them off to Turners?

I mean under valued vehicles that run on polluting fossil fuels supplied by autocratic murdering camel owning tribes man and war crazed criminals.....:eek2:

i mean ? Do we have any gas fields to explore? Anything anywhere?

Does NZ have any minerals worth digging up beside some old bones of the original inhabitants of these there pacific islands....

Or do all we have is some tree huggers outlawing the very Japanese rust buckets we are looking to make a killing off....


I do believe there might still be some well hidden troves of precious stuff about the place ..

The ASX listed mining companies are busy prospecting them right now on our turf :)

Their staff are likely to turn up at Turners at some stage for their wheels upgrades

[oldtech]

I would rather poke myself n the eye with a blunt stick then jump on a bus in Auckland

You and me both, RTM! But we all know that not everybody feels the same, that there are people who use the trains and buses, and every politician and his dog (if you'll pardon the expression Beagle;)) talk about the need to "enable a mode shift away from cars" (translation: get us out of our polluting gas guzzlers and save the planet).

But there are two factors I've seen mentioned over recent months which are worth considering.

Back in January AT said bus patronage was sitting at only 53.5 percent of pre-COVID levels for the time of year ... no idea if that's changed now, but I wonder how much impact Covid fears and people continuing to work from home are having? I personally know of two large corporates who are pushing people to return to the office - I also know that some people are strongly resisting that return on the basis that "we've been working from home for nine months now quite successfully, why rush back into the office?"

More recently, it was reported that Auckland Transport are running out of money to run public transport, and they're already looking to reduce some bus services that aren't used that much. There's a funding shortfall from NZTA, the City Rail Link is blowing way over budget (no surprises there), politicians are promising to scrap the regional fuel tax - which results in more funding issues - and everybody wants money for their own pet projects - be they cycleways, climate change initiatives, the Eastern Bus Route, you name it. According to AT it costs $500 million a year to run public transport (I presume that's just in Auckland) and it needs even more money to continue a "decent level of services".

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/auckland-transport-running-out-of-money-to-run-buses-trains-and-ferries/FB2XDZ5C6WJFJCKYGSW67VXMZA/

Seems to me that there always be a core of people who will use public transport - for convenience, for idealogical reasons, whatever. But I personally think that increasing that number is going to continue to be a challenge without either (a) substantial improvements in the infrastructure, or (b) REALLY substantial disincentives to using your own car. And there doesn't seem to be the funding, or the political willpower, for either.

[Waltzing]

With RAK paying out no DIV and keeping all the GOLD from a high performance year this OLD BANGERS second hand car sales yard dealer is looking like a pretty good investment...

Beagles always a long way ahead of the Hunt. Isnt this also one of MR P FAV? or was at some point although HGH has continued to out perform which is a surprise as traditional banking services are under huge technology pressures.

OldTech pretty much sums it up...Bangers are in...

Lets face it this company is one step away from a scrap metal dealer... They make money dont they? Lot of scrap metal out there in the world at the moment.

[Rawz]

"scrap metal dealer"

Waltzing, please stop putting rum in your morning coffee.. lol

[Muse]

"scrap metal dealer"

Waltzing, please stop putting rum in your morning coffee.. lol

LOL, yes

Alternatively, start putting some coffee in your morning rum

[Waltzing]

well with all the bad news out there TRA is certainly Banging along isnt it?

Mr B certainly knows how to find them...

He has a nose for performance almost like no other...

Funny how old cars is out performing new apartments and care suites...

Are you suggesting there is something technical about this company?

It designed MOBILE EYE in secret ? Musk is going to make a take over offer?

Scrap metal is big business...

Ive got RAK and TRA mixed up...

Ok its going into flying cars....

https://edition.cnn.com/videos/tech/2022/01/25/flying-car-to-take-flight-in-slovakia-newday-stewart-vpx.cnn

They approached suzanne-paul as brand ambassador but she realised it wasnt going to pay for her hoped for trips to international fashion shows...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/celebrities/103901281/former-dancing-with-the-stars-nz-winner-suzanne-paul-shows-support-for-naz

This company is a MR B BBB+ and hes done it again!

Its seen the light and its going to moving its HQ to Hamilton and farther reduce overheads....

[Joshuatree]

Percy is the one that deserves full credit.
Mr B's ego is big enough,please don't feed it.

[Waltzing]

Yes though it was MR P also he made an amazing investment in the then basket case of PGC and that was either blind faith or sheer brilliance...

Must have had a good knowledge of the performance potential of the management team.

and we noticed and took a closer look and punted...

[couta1]

Percy is the one that deserves full credit.
Mr B's ego is big enough,please don't feed it. Yes and according to Mr B this was the biggest dog on the planet a couple of yrs ago, Percy stayed staunch like he has with other stocks he owns.

[Waltzing]

Yes they are going to expand into new horizon's and really there is no place this company cant go!!!

Into the wild blue yonder and beyond!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P2WRF3Znsw

[Muse]

............

[Waltzing]

"pure financial services firm"

but its not as this company handles, touches the product.

Finance has been at the heart of the car industry since when?

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/americandream/b1.html

[Beagle]

I note that Jarden came out with a 12m target price of $4.42 and Craigs of $4.75 over the last two days.
Mid point of those two figures, about $4.60 makes common sense to me and in the meantime if they pay 24 cps in dividends in FY23 that's a gross yield of 8.77% @ $3.80. I think its fair to say we're being paid very handsomely while we hold and enjoy future growth :t_up:
Approx 55% is recurring revenue, (finance and insurance) which will grow and be driven off the back of their retail footprint expansion in the years ahead.

[BlackPeter]

Yes they are going to expand into new horizon's and really there is no place this company cant go!!!

Into the wild blue yonder and beyond!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2P2WRF3Znsw

Oh dear ... before we all get too excited - lets not forget that at heart this is just a used car dealer with a finance company attached ;) ; They go up with the economic cycles ... and they shall come down with them.

[Muse]

"pure financial services firm"

but its not as this company handles, touches the product.

Finance has been at the heart of the car industry since when?

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/americandream/b1.html

yeah, that's why I said "TRA isn't a pure financial services firm so this approach will be of less relevance to say heartland, but still an interesting cross check. "

[Rawz]

Hi Winner69 - my updated warranted price to NTA and warranted price to book analysis is below:

13844


On a spot price to nta basis, the 'warranted' model says $4.27. But given brokers expect returns on NTA to reduce from 35.6% in FY22 to an average of 30.2% over the next 3 financial years, I did a scenario using that in the framework, and it produces a warranted price of $3.53

I think P/NTA is much more relevant that price to book given the sheer quantum of intangibles on the balance sheet. I prefer looking at net tangible operating assets.

On a pure price to book basis, the warranted price to book approach pumps out $3.12

The theory behind the warranted price to NTA/book is simple...if a book produces a return on equity of (say) 10%, and an investors cost of equity is (say) 9%, the price to book should be 1.11x (10%/9%), all else equal. The formula then adjusts for a stable growth rate that can be expected from the book - the higher the growth the higher the warranted multiple. It's a great approach for valuing banks and other financial institutions (like insurance). It's only semi relevant to TRA given its retail business is the feeder to those later two operations. But still kinda an interesting sense check. I'm confident in my cost of equity calcs but do some sensitivity tables for it and the stable growth rate that gets used. For the stable growth rate I tried to look at it like a pure financial services firm but didn't put much thought into it - hence the sensitivity table.

I note that Jarden came out with a 12m target price of $4.42 and Craigs of $4.75 over the last two days.

Good stuff FM, does this take into account the property sitting on the balance sheet well under market value?

[percy]

Oh dear ... before we all get too excited - lets not forget that at heart this is just a used car dealer with a finance company attached ;) ; They go up with the economic cycles ... and they shall come down with them.

Used car dealer...............Yes,NZ leader.
Finance Company............Yes with a growing number of dealers.
Insurance.......................Yes a growing business.Even HGH's Marac uses them.
Credit Management.........Yes a good earner.
Property........................Yes Yes Yes..Developing their own sites gives them huge margins.Very clever property dealers.
Unrecognised property gains of $18.8m
We have continued to build our portfolio of property over the last seven years and generated unrecognised gains on the seven developed sites of just under $19m or 22c per share over this time and 5.6c per share in the FY22 year alone. Combining the 7 developed sites with the new sites in Rotorua and Nelson along with the 3 committed sites in Napier, Timaru and Tauranga (Tauriko) we have just under $95m worth of property in the portfolio. We also have offers and negotiations under way in East Auckland, Tauranga and Christchurch. We continue to see property ownership as a key strategy that will ensure the long term resilience of the business.

[Muse]

Good stuff FM, does this take into account the property sitting on the balance sheet well under market value?

no - reported balance sheet

Including it would increase NTA, but it would also diminish the returns on NTA/returns on book value of equity. Haven't done the math to see how it would net out, but a in one hand out the other situation

[winner69]

Yes and according to Mr B this was the biggest dog on the planet a couple of yrs ago, Percy stayed staunch like he has with other stocks he owns.

Percy has been a staunch supporter of Turners ..... no doubt about that .....but he has done the beagle thing a couple of times and sold out

Unsure if he's currently a shareholder

[Waltzing]

There are investors here that should perhaps have had careers as professionals as there proficiency seems to be better than some of the broking firms.

[sb9]

Think that road map to $5 is well and truly buried for now, ah well just keep collecting those divvies for now. At today's price yield is 8.5%, not too shabby even under current rising interest rates scenario.

[Balance]

Feedback from an Auckland North Shore car dealer - used vehicle sales have fallen very sharply in the last 3 weeks and dealers are starting to advertise specials to get rid of stock, before new ones arrive.

[Beagle]

Winter is always a quieter time in the vehicle market and in Auckland this month the weather has been absolutely atrocious.
Happy holder and I haven't forgotten that Todd Hunter said most people buying used cars in the Turners cars segment of the market are making needs based purchases.

[sb9]

And for those that may not be aware fully aware of TRA business model, they're not just into Automotive, they've very profitable Finance and Insurance divisions too that contribute handsomely to earnings.

[crighton100]

Just like to add that management encourages its employees into shareholding in the company,which is always a great incentive to work hard & usually gets the right results
[its how the great Bruce Plested who started up mainfreight got his employees into shareholding & see where that company has gone from strength to strength.

[crighton100]

Just like to add that management encourages its employees into shareholding in the company,which is always a great incentive to work hard; usually gets the right results[its how the great Bruce Plested who started up mainfreight got his employees into shareholding & see where that company has gone from strength to strength.

[Rawz]

Just like to add that management encourages its employees into shareholding in the company,which is always a great incentive to work hard; usually gets the right results[its how the great Bruce Plested who started up mainfreight got his employees into shareholding & see where that company has gone from strength to strength.

well said. worth posting twice!

[bull....]

Feedback from an Auckland North Shore car dealer - used vehicle sales have fallen very sharply in the last 3 weeks and dealers are starting to advertise specials to get rid of stock, before new ones arrive.

not surprised as i outlined a few pages back the highs were well in for this stock.
in summary again the main points

chip manufacturers are catching up production and recession is coming so demand will crash from these highs
interest rate hikes make it harder to borrow to buy a car

[Rawz]

not surprised as i outlined a few pages back the highs were well in for this stock.
in summary again the main points

chip manufacturers are catching up production and recession is coming so demand will crash from these highs
interest rate hikes make it harder to borrow to buy a car

Yes there are headwinds but TRA is priced attractively so its an easy hold for the dividend while top quality management execute on their branch expansion.

UDC Finance bought Euroclass financial services this week. A bit of consolidation in the asset finance industry that Oxford is growing in.

[Ggcc]

Interesting times ahead. Bought some more TRA after a brief discussion with someone in the industry, who finds TRA undervalued. Retail sales might be falling 5-10%, but their insurance side of the company will continue to do well and we may see more upside with that side of the company. We will see some stress in the Oxford side with lending as sourcing the money becomes more expensive. All in all the company is better setup than a lot of others in the industry. If certain car sale yards are struggling they may need to sell their inventory at discount just to survive. Also we an increase in TRA market share as other yards pull out entirely.

Quite optimistic I feel

[Jonette]

Nelson branch must be close to opening;

https://turners.careercentre.net.nz/job/sales-consultant/nelson/2684

at an educated guess, that will add 130 to 140 cars for sale, with say $1500 NPAT per car based on an earlier Todd quote, based on market size it could be of the order of 100 cars / mth or $150,000pm , almost $2m extra profit pa.

[Marilyn Munroe]

... but their insurance side of the company will continue to do well and we may see more upside with that side of the company.
l

The Commerce Commission is not happy with the performance of what it calls add on insurance in the motor industry. I would expect them to perform increasing compliance audits and or introduce even more strict consumer protection laws for these products.

https://comcom.govt.nz/__data/assets/pdf_file/0037/269947/Motor-vehicle-financing-and-add-ons-review-10-November-2021.pdf

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[Ricky-bobby]

Hey team, when’s the Div hitting us? Haven’t seen any details come through.

[winner69]

Hey team, when’s the Div hitting us? Haven’t seen any details come through.

another month ---- you'll get it on July 28th

You could have looked here https://www.nzx.com/instruments/TRA/dividends

[winner69]

that CAR Caresales.com taking on the world .... they talk billions

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/carsales-com-announces--1-2-billion-raise-to-fully-acquire-trader-interactive.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=www.thewebconsole.com&utm_campaign=BNA+News+-+28+June+2022&utm_content=37065033&c=31122783&_c=00a1dc8a37f4b05a1bebd3bf4ce1f3a6

Different business model but margins / ebitda that Turners would die for

[Joshuatree]

that CAR Caresales.com taking on the world .... they talk billions

https://www.businessnewsaustralia.com/articles/carsales-com-announces--1-2-billion-raise-to-fully-acquire-trader-interactive.html?utm_medium=email&utm_source=www.thewebconsole.com&utm_campaign=BNA+News+-+28+June+2022&utm_content=37065033&c=31122783&_c=00a1dc8a37f4b05a1bebd3bf4ce1f3a6

Different business model but margins / ebitda that Turners would die for

"So after paying US$624m for 49% of Trader Interactive (TI) a year ago, CAR is paying US$1.27bn for the remaining 51%"
Quite a premium for control ehh.Watching CAR for any weakness in s/p.Its one of those few premium Aussie stocks that a flight to safety will pushup .

[Jonette]

The annual report just dropped.

Page two has this statement "Looking beyond FY23, we remain very confident about further growth over the medium to longer term and we have updated our three-year rolling target to cross over $50m of profit before tax by FY25."

Taking a look at their NPBT "Underlying NPBT was up 29% to $44.1m" the above forecast looks pessimistic

[Rawz]

TRA trading on a p/e of 8.5 and a net div yield of 6% (paid quarterly) according to ASB.

Solid and clear plan for growth ahead.

Jonette- I agree about the forecast npbt of $50m being conservative. But we are apparently heading into a recession so fair enough being cautious and throwing out a number on the low end of what they hope to achieve

It’s probably more a message to the market… hey everyone, stormy clouds ahead, but no worries for us, we will still grow EPS and DPS

Happy holder

[BlackPeter]

TRA trading on a p/e of 8.5 and a net div yield of 6% (paid quarterly) according to ASB.

Solid and clear plan for growth ahead.

Jonette- I agree about the forecast npbt of $50m being conservative. But we are apparently heading into a recession so fair enough being cautious and throwing out a number on the low end of what they hope to achieve

It’s probably more a message to the market… hey everyone, stormy clouds ahead, but no worries for us, we will still grow EPS and DPS

Happy holder

MBG (Mercedes Benz) is currently trading on an average backward PE of 5.1 and a dividend yield of 7.4%!

Other car manufacturers and dealers look quite similar (well, but Tesla - too much hype).

TRA seems to be pretty dear.

I suppose the market just expects business for car manufactureres and dealer to get a bit rougher in the years to come. Lucky for us (I am holding MBG) - the market is not always right!

[Rawz]

MBG (Mercedes Benz) is currently trading on an average backward PE of 5.1 and a dividend yield of 7.4%!

Other car manufacturers and dealers look quite similar (well, but Tesla - too much hype).

TRA seems to be pretty dear.

I suppose the market just expects business for car manufactureres and dealer to get a bit rougher in the years to come. Lucky for us (I am holding MBG) - the market is not always right!

I have a wee link into the Merc truck game in NZ.. if you want to order a new truck from the factory (because the dealers dont have any stock) the earliest delivery is 2024-2025. COVID totally wrecked the 'just in time' supply chain and its going to take years for things to catch up.

Anyways, TRA probably has been dragged down with the sector (and market as a whole) but they are expanding in NZ with new branches and they have solid supply lines of used cars + great finance/insurance business. TRA cheap but growing eps. MBG cheap but will they grow over next 3 years?? (i dont know the company at all. Its a big business with many moving parts and global.).

[BlackPeter]

I have a wee link into the Merc truck game in NZ.. if you want to order a new truck from the factory (because the dealers dont have any stock) the earliest delivery is 2024-2025. COVID totally wrecked the 'just in time' supply chain and its going to take years for things to catch up.

Anyways, TRA probably has been dragged down with the sector (and market as a whole) but they are expanding in NZ with new branches and they have solid supply lines of used cars + great finance/insurance business. TRA cheap but growing eps. MBG cheap but will they grow over next 3 years?? (i dont know the company at all. Its a big business with many moving parts and global.).

You realize that Daimler Truck is now a different company from MBG?

Anyway - and for what it is worth - analysts expect MBG to keep growing revenue as well as earnings over the coming three years. Just read as well the Volkwagen Q1 (just another boring international car manufacurer and dealer) ... they confirmed their 15% growth expectations for 2022.

Things seem to look good for the industry. Delivered cars are down but margins are really, really healthy. Whether this will be true for a second hand business as well? Time will tell.

Given that TRA is more living from clipping the ticket ... less tickets clipped might be detrimental to its business volumes and it might not be so easy for them to increase the margin (i.e. price per clip). Remember - when new cars get dearer the price for old cars will rise as well, and TRA needs to first buy the old car before it can resell it.

[percy]

https://www.porscheipo.com/?gclid=EAIaIQobChMImcv7yP_P-AIV5Fh8Ch2x6AsvEAEYASAAEgIZuPD_BwE

[Rawz]

You realize that Daimler Truck is now a different company from MBG?

Anyway - and for what it is worth - analysts expect MBG to keep growing revenue as well as earnings over the coming three years. Just read as well the Volkwagen Q1 (just another boring international car manufacurer and dealer) ... they confirmed their 15% growth expectations for 2022.

Things seem to look good for the industry. Delivered cars are down but margins are really, really healthy. Whether this will be true for a second hand business as well? Time will tell.

Given that TRA is more living from clipping the ticket ... less tickets clipped might be detrimental to its business volumes and it might not be so easy for them to increase the margin (i.e. price per clip). Remember - when new cars get dearer the price for old cars will rise as well, and TRA needs to first buy the old car before it can resell it.

Ah true. Didnt know that they were separate entities.

BP you have always been a bear on TRA which is all good. I like reading your posts and listen to your view.
Last time you really had a crack at TRA the SP and earnings shot up- hope history repeats :p

[BlackPeter]

Ah true. Didnt know that they were separate entities.

BP you have always been a bear on TRA which is all good. I like reading your posts and listen to your view.
Last time you really had a crack at TRA the SP and earnings shot up- hope history repeats :p

I wish you luck ... and hey, I highly respect the current management team. Good people. However - I still think that it is a cyclical business. Nothing wrong with that (life and nature does go in cycles) ... just not so good to buy them on the way down.

And absolutely - my past timing with some cyclicals (TRA is one of them, SKL another) was terrible. I was riding TRA at some stage from something like $3 and promising more to something like $1.50. Ouch. So, you well might be right - it could be all up from here. On the other hand - I am not always wrong either :) ;

I noticed that I seem to understand some companies and their cycles better than others and am now investing more often in companies which I can synchronize with ...

[Rawz]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394538

Nearly missed this letter released early this morning..
Great read.

TRA must deserve the award for best communicator with shareholders. Good stuff. I reckon we will see low double digit growth P.A next 3 years and i am mighty fine with that give its trading on a 8.5 multiple

Dear Shareholder

The Turners Limited Annual Report for the year ended 31 March 2022 is now available. We invite you to read this on our website at https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Reports.html The FY22 year delivered another record result for our business, with Turners not only demonstrating earnings resilience but strong growth credentials as well. We are confident we have found the right formula and that our actions will deliver continuing growth over the next three years.

Our growing returns are driving much improved outcomes for our shareholders, and we were pleased to deliver record dividends of 23.0 cents per share in FY22.

With another record year of results, a stronger and de-risked business, a clear strategy and a near-term economic outlook that is looking more uncertain, our business has never been in better shape. We are ready for whatever comes next.

Our Three Year Plan
Our three-year plan centres on organic growth and is focused on four key areas, comprising both physical and digital investments.
1. Retail Optimisation and Expansion across people, property and processes.
2. Vehicle purchasing decision-making using data and tools to help identify new sourcing opportunities, and leveraging our brand strength to generate local sourcing leads.
3. Margin management and Premium lending within Finance. 4. Continued investment in digital and improving our omni-channel customer experience which allows customers to engage with us however, whenever and wherever they want.

Looking beyond FY23, we remain very confident about further growth over the medium to longer term. We have updated our three-year rolling target to grow to more than $50m of underlying profit before tax by FY25. On behalf of the Board and management, we would like to thank our shareholders for your continued support.

[nztx]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/394538

Nearly missed this letter released early this morning..
Great read.

TRA must deserve the award for best communicator with shareholders. Good stuff. I reckon we will see low double digit growth P.A next 3 years and i am mighty fine with that give its trading on a 8.5 multiple

Dear Shareholder

The Turners Limited Annual Report for the year ended 31 March 2022 is now available. We invite you to read this on our website at https://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Reports.html The FY22 year delivered another record result for our business, with Turners not only demonstrating earnings resilience but strong growth credentials as well. We are confident we have found the right formula and that our actions will deliver continuing growth over the next three years.

Our growing returns are driving much improved outcomes for our shareholders, and we were pleased to deliver record dividends of 23.0 cents per share in FY22.

With another record year of results, a stronger and de-risked business, a clear strategy and a near-term economic outlook that is looking more uncertain, our business has never been in better shape. We are ready for whatever comes next.

Our Three Year Plan
Our three-year plan centres on organic growth and is focused on four key areas, comprising both physical and digital investments.
1. Retail Optimisation and Expansion across people, property and processes.
2. Vehicle purchasing decision-making using data and tools to help identify new sourcing opportunities, and leveraging our brand strength to generate local sourcing leads.
3. Margin management and Premium lending within Finance. 4. Continued investment in digital and improving our omni-channel customer experience which allows customers to engage with us however, whenever and wherever they want.

Looking beyond FY23, we remain very confident about further growth over the medium to longer term. We have updated our three-year rolling target to grow to more than $50m of underlying profit before tax by FY25. On behalf of the Board and management, we would like to thank our shareholders for your continued support.


Thanks Tina & the team :)

[Jonette]

I wish you luck ... and hey, I highly respect the current management team. Good people. However - I still think that it is a cyclical business. Nothing wrong with that (life and nature does go in cycles) ... just not so good to buy them on the way down.

And absolutely - my past timing with some cyclicals (TRA is one of them, SKL another) was terrible. I was riding TRA at some stage from something like $3 and promising more to something like $1.50. Ouch. So, you well might be right - it could be all up from here. On the other hand - I am not always wrong either :) ;

I noticed that I seem to understand some companies and their cycles better than others and am now investing more often in companies which I can synchronize with ...

TRA is NOT a car company, if it were you should be really worried about the Debt/Equity of over 200%. TRA is an Eco-system of three main parts;

Car sales,
Bank,
Insurer

They have large borrowings to cover their banking operation, lending to buyers of cars, and profits on all three sectors are consistently close, although not equal - car sales this year were 37% of operating profit.

VW and Merc are vehicle manufacturing, with an exposure to new car sales, - also very different from second hand car sales. They have minimal margins due to competitive failings - too many countries subsidising manufacture to use cheap labour, again not TRA.

An ecosystem is where the sale of one product is part of an ecosystem where other products can leverage the first. I believe Turners uses all three main products to leverage the other two.

[Louloubell]

And
4. Debt collector

[Waltzing]

.....

(n)

property owner ... according to Mr P.

just more than a one stop shop ..

[BlackPeter]

TRA is NOT a car company, if it were you should be really worried about the Debt/Equity of over 200%. TRA is an Eco-system of three main parts;

Car sales,
Bank,
Insurer

They have large borrowings to cover their banking operation, lending to buyers of cars, and profits on all three sectors are consistently close, although not equal - car sales this year were 37% of operating profit.

VW and Merc are vehicle manufacturing, with an exposure to new car sales, - also very different from second hand car sales. They have minimal margins due to competitive failings - too many countries subsidising manufacture to use cheap labour, again not TRA.

An ecosystem is where the sale of one product is part of an ecosystem where other products can leverage the first. I believe Turners uses all three main products to leverage the other two.

Thanks - I am impressed. You clearly must have read a couple of pages of this thread and are now able to repeat what you read. Good start.

Yes, TRA makes a material part of its income through finance and insurance - and (a significantly smaller part) through debt collection.

So do most car manufacturers. If you have a look into Mercedes Benz or Volkswagens books, you might discover that they make as well more than one third of their income just through financing the sales of their cars. I assume the same is true for most other car manufacturers.

A bit telling is your comment on the finances of Mercedes or Volkswagen ... did you ever look into their books?

If you did, you would know, that their earnings are huge (P/E around 5 to 6) and their margins further improved significantly with the arrival of COVID and its related manufacturing issues. Sell something which is in demand and its a sellers market.

So - fundamentals look good for them (as well as for TRA), however market is very cautious (indicated by very low P/E ratings). Maybe market knows something we don't want to see ... or maybe they are wrong?

Ah yes - and did it ever occur to you that the TRA ecosystem you are describing is very dependent on only one of its components (sell used cars) ... just allow carsales to drop and the rest will follow.

Whatever it is - it might be time to watch out ... but each to their own.

[Snow Leopard]

I am sure that the Turners vehicle will traverse a variety of road conditions over the next few years but I have confidence in the driver and crew to avoid the big potholes & large wild animals and keep the machine running.

[Rawz]

I was talking to a mate in the asset finance industry yesterday about this coming downturn or whatever and we agreed at the end of the day, machinery, trucks, cars etc. They all breakdown eventually and need replacing. It's science

[BlackPeter]

I am sure that the Turners vehicle will traverse a variety of road conditions over the next few years but I have confidence in the driver and crew to avoid the big potholes & large wild animals and keep the machine running.

Amen to that.

I think however that this observation and expectation (which I do share) does not necessarily answer the question whether now and at current SP it is a good investment :) ... but hey, at current this is true for many good companies;

[BlackPeter]

I was talking to a mate in the asset finance industry yesterday about this coming downturn or whatever and we agreed at the end of the day, machinery, trucks, cars etc. They all breakdown eventually and need replacing. It's science

Absolutely.

However - if people replace their cars only say once every 4 years instead of once every two years, than this is only half the number of tickets to clip.

We are driving both of our cars now already for something like 8 to 10 years (one bought used, one bought new) and both of them are well maintained, safe, economical and run well. At this stage I don't see it as a good or opportune time to replace any of them. Might wait until the premium for e-vehicles and hybrids drops, and I think both have still another at least 8 to 10 years of life in them.

Admittedly - I never used a finance company before to buy a car (or anything else) and I don't intend to change that either.

If others follow this example than people will keep more money in their pockets but the business for companies like Turners might shrink quite independently from the need of cars and machinery needing at some stage replacement.

[percy]

NZ motor vehicle fleet does not get any younger year on year,so plenty of natural organic growth for the sector.
As TRA are the leading NZ used vehicle dealer they should out perform others in the sector.
With a current PE of 8.89 and paying fully imputated quarterly dividends [currently 5.85%] their ratios appear modest to me.

[pierre]

In an article published in August last year it was reported that the number of registered dealers in New Zealand could dip below 3000 for the year and that people are hanging on to their cars for longer.

TRA is expanding - not retrenching - and have car-only dealerships in 19 locations. There is plenty of opportunity for them to continue to expand and grow sales volumes and finance and insurance revenue even in a contracting market.

Like Snow Leopard, I have confidence in the company leadership to navigate the twists and turns on the road ahead.

Used car prices could stay 'elevated' for three years | Stuff.co.nz (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300388573/used-car-prices-could-stay-elevated-for-three-years)

[winner69]

With the immigration tap turned back on and up to 75,000 a year next plenty of new customers for Turners

[Rawz]

TRA have a NPAT constant avg growth rate of:

10 year CAGR of 26%
5 year CAGR of 6%
3 year CAGR of 14%

Not sure what to make of that lol

[Rawz]

TRA have a NPAT constant avg growth rate of:

10 year CAGR of 26%
5 year CAGR of 6%
3 year CAGR of 14%

Not sure what to make of that lol

I figured it out... hold for 10 years :t_up:

[mike2020]

I bought a car off Turners and they made a loss on it, it needed a bit of work before they could sell it. I said that's not great business is it and the reply was maybe one in 10,000 times that might happen. But in the process of looking I learnt quite a bit. I am surprised they are only making 1500 per unit sold because there must a be a fair few they make much more and the auction fee is quite a tax. I had a valuation out of interest on a car I was looking to trade in and I could see them selling similar/same car for 4 or 5k more. I have watched their auctions quite a bit and they turn over loads of presumably ex lease rangers and other commercial vehicles for very close to a dealership price.
I would be happy to buy off them again. The staff are great and seem to know their stuff plus they don't try to hide any obvious defects. For a bigger purchase I would always get the vehicle checked out elsewhere though.

[Ricky-bobby]

Very bullish/confident outlook. Everything is very much under control and their destination is strongly in their hands. Not many other nzx companies talking like this…. That’s why these guys are my biggest holding. Keep up the great work!

[Onemootpoint]

​Demand is outstripping supply so we have low inventory levels, says Group 1 Automotive CEO

On CNBC this morning; to the end of the clip a quick reference to the value car market.
‘Also, as we know, chip shortages still an ongoing issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH4rr8j9HEE

[BlackPeter]

​Demand is outstripping supply so we have low inventory levels, says Group 1 Automotive CEO

On CNBC this morning; to the end of the clip a quick reference to the value car market.
‘Also, as we know, chip shortages still an ongoing issue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH4rr8j9HEE

Translation:
Dealers need to pay more to get used cars they can on sell.
Dealers will be able to get a higher price for used cars (though whether the margin will be higher, nobody knows)
Sales volumes will drop.

Not necessarily good news for TRA.

[Louloubell]

There are many variables and unknowns.
Two of the more influential are, in my opinion :
1. Reducing number of car dealers and
2. Turners having and actively branding themselves as a high-trust brand.

These two factors, plus having 99% of their cars locally sourced will off-set the economic situation.

Hence, Turners being my largest company in my portfolio.

[sb9]

Last day to get in to be eligible for divvy..7c it is.

[Mafman]

But the e
x-div date is the 18th isn't it?

[777]

But the e
x-div date is the 18th isn't it?

Exactly, which means if you wait for that date(Monday) you are not entitled to the dividend.

[Grimy]

Most of this quarter's dividend has disappeared with today's s/p rise.

[Onemootpoint]

But the e
x-div date is the 18th isn't it?

Also, notwithstanding market disruption the share price may dip on and/ or after the ex dividend date, especially given it has at the time of writing today gained around 1.35% as mentioned by Grimy.

[sb9]

Few decent lots of off market crossings today to round off last trading day before going XD on Mon.

[percy]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129292182/used-car-sales-have-plunged-and-prices-are-following

[Ggcc]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129292182/used-car-sales-have-plunged-and-prices-are-following
Interesting. Luckily Turners are not solely reliant on car sales. They will need to sharpen their pencils when buying cars.

Thanks for sharing.

[peat]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129292182/used-car-sales-have-plunged-and-prices-are-following

it seems the article backtracks from the nose-dive, and plunge adjectives used in the headlines and initial paragraphs though

At the end it says

as buyers shied away from buying, prices for used cars were beginning to edge down.
Prices had been high, but they were softening in the used car market, Hedgepeth said.
“Prices are easing from their highs at the end of last year.


So maybe its a bit dramatic, and Turners will still buy and sell cars and make a margin whatever the prices are, though inventory value falling isn't ideal.

[percy]

it seems the article backtracks from the nose-dive, and plunge adjectives used in the headlines and initial paragraphs though

At the end it says

as buyers shied away from buying, prices for used cars were beginning to edge down.
Prices had been high, but they were softening in the used car market, Hedgepeth said.
“Prices are easing from their highs at the end of last year.


So maybe its a bit dramatic, and Turners will still buy and sell cars and make a margin whatever the prices are, though inventory value falling isn't ideal.

Having the fastest stock turns in the sector should mean falling values may have little affect on Turners.
I would think they have been reacting since January and are well ahead of the field.
We must also remember Turners auction as well as sell on behalf,so they will retain their margin on these sales.

[BlackPeter]

Having the fastest stock turns in the sector should mean falling values may have little affect on Turners.
I would think they have been reacting since January and are well ahead of the field.
We must also remember Turners auction as well as sell on behalf,so they will retain their margin on these sales.

You are right ... live will go on, however - number of sales going down (i.e. less tickets to clip) as well as the value of each sale going down. Bad combination. Even if they can keep the same margin - it will be a smaller amount on the bottom line if the average sales value is lower ... and I suspect that increased competition in a receding market might even cut into the margin percentage.

As indicated before - it is a cyclical business and currently the cycle is clearly trending down.

The interesting questions are:

will this be a slope or a cliff?
Where is the bottom?

[winner69]

Market maybe foresaw some of that gloom …no wonder share price down 20%

BP says a cyclical ..slope of cliff …..maybe Baker et al will again be saying good buying at 3 bucks

[Rawz]

Just remember TRA have provided guidance of growing earnings through this down part of the cycle BP is talking about.

That article is Turners providing commentary on the wider industry which i am expecting to suffer far greater than TRA.

Maybe we get the opportunity to buy cheap TRA shares in the coming months, maybe not.

[percy]

The issues facing the sector will add opportunities for Turners to increase market share.

[BlackPeter]

deleted - duplication

[Louloubell]

My thoughts, here they are:
1. Talk of cliff is simply nonsense. Buying a car is largely need-driven.
2. Turners will be under pressure, but nearly every other dealer will be under more. Remember that 90% of cars Turners sells is in the country already.
3. Number of motor vehicle dealers will decrease, so a bigger market share for Turners.
4. Nelson still to open.
5. Turners reputation is a bonus in these uncertain economic times.

So, of course there will be pressure on profits, certainly in the next few years. But the medium and long term picture looks good. Only short-term traders need to worry. I intend to use the upcoming dividends to buy more TRA shares.

[Habits]

Am seeing a lot of Tina from Turners, she is always popping up on tv and now radio. Becoming iconic or annoying depending on your perspective

[Jonette]

Turners may or may not be under pressure, but NZAI is under a lot more, not due to sales issues though:

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/four-nzai-board-members-quit-as-fight-brews-with-major-shareholder

the link name says it all if you have not got a sub

[BlackPeter]

Turners may or may not be under pressure, but NZAI is under a lot more, not due to sales issues though:

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/four-nzai-board-members-quit-as-fight-brews-with-major-shareholder

the link name says it all if you have not got a sub

I always wondered about the wisdom to brand a car salesyard "cheap cars" ... but anyway - there might be a takeover opportunity for Turners, even if their last takeover (didn't they had some funny name as well?) didn't go that flash either ...?

[percy]

I always wondered about the wisdom to brand a car salesyard "cheap cars" ... but anyway - there might be a takeover opportunity for Turners, even if their last takeover (didn't they had some funny name as well?) didn't go that flash either ...?

TRA learnt a great deal from their Buy Right Cars takeover saga.
Think they will leave NZA to others.

[sb9]

TRA learnt a great deal from their Buy Right Cars takeover saga.
Think they will leave NZA to others.

Yeah agreed, lesson or two learnt from Buy Right saga. Do not need anymore of those sour deals.

[BlackPeter]

Yeah agreed, lesson or two learnt from Buy Right saga. Do not need anymore of those sour deals.

Obviously - we don't know yet, how the cheap car saga plays out. However - I think it has potential to impact on Turners (or their market) no matter what they do ...

on the opportunities side it might mean one competitor less to worry about (even if I am not sure whether they had the customers Turners would like to have).

on the risks side it might mean a firesale of a lot of "cheap cars" flooding the market during a market downturn.

Anyway - interesting times. Market consolidation always brings risks and opportunities, which is often good for the established and big players.

[Jonette]

on the risks side it might mean a firesale of a lot of "cheap cars" flooding the market during a market downturn.



Not many cars at all, Turners maintain a stock of over 3000 cars, NZAI only have 500 usually, but not at present, obviously the internal mess has stopped sales so they now have 700+ cars and growing.

[percy]

Not many cars at all, Turners maintain a stock of over 3000 cars, NZAI only have 500 usually, but not at present, obviously the internal mess has stopped sales so they now have 700+ cars and growing.

Wonder how many ASB own.?

[Jonette]

Turners have started advertising cars at their Nelson Branch, just 12 today, but I expect that to grow a lot.

https://www.trademe.co.nz/a/motors/cars/search?search_string=turners&user_region=13

[Louloubell]

Turners website says that Nelson will open in August. Yippee

[Jaa]

I had written off Turners subscription business as a nothing burger but the idea seems to be catching on.

The website and service is a bit bare bones (no car seats, snow chains, tow bars etc) but the staff are very efficient and friendly with a car salesperson's desire to sort out any issues over the phone. Not sure why they needed Carly.

Cars, especially electric cars don't stay available on the site for long. Apparently there is now 150 cars out on subscription, about $1.5m in yearly revenue.

Car dealership business Ebbet have launched a competing service Ebbet Subscribe (https://ebbett.nz/subscribe/) for near-new cars at slightly higher price points albeit with much less monthly kms than Turners. They use Aussie platform Loopit (https://www.loopit.co/) which is designed for car subscriptions so I guess we can expect more such services. Nothing like competition to promote and validate an idea.

[Jonette]

I had written off Turners subscription business as a nothing burger but the idea seems to be catching on.


I saw it as a slow burner with legs, but your report shows it has more legs than I expected. I wonder if it will justify a separate enumeration in their next quarterly report

[Jonette]

Apparently there is now 150 cars out on subscription, about $1.5m in yearly revenue.


Hi Jaa, Did you discover they have 150 out on subscription by totalling the Reserved cars?

I can find a list of cars with two availability categories, reserved and available. Does reserved mean they are out with a subscriber? There appear to be 151 reserved today, just 5 in the SI.

Have you managed to figure out the average rental price for reserved cars to get the $1.5m?

[Baa_Baa]

... Have you managed to figure out the average rental price for reserved cars to get the $1.5m?

https://www.turnerssubscription.co.nz/subscription-plans does that help?

[Jaa]

Hi Jaa, Did you discover they have 150 out on subscription by totalling the Reserved cars?

I can find a list of cars with two availability categories, reserved and available. Does reserved mean they are out with a subscriber? There appear to be 151 reserved today, just 5 in the SI.

Have you managed to figure out the average rental price for reserved cars to get the $1.5m?

I needed a car and as a shareholder wanted to do some research/support Turners so I subscribed for one and that's the figure the rep gave. Was a very efficient customer experience with all the paperwork electronic, credit check by EC Credit of course.

But yes you can also get an idea by how many cars are reserved and the regional popularity by where the cars are. The service isn't very popular in the regions, New Plymouth, Bay of Plenty, South Island etc.

I assumed an average weekly subscription price of $200, so I multiplied that.... 200 * 150 * 52 = $1.56m. The average car in the list is less but subs with more usable kms/lower excess are more than the prices shown so should be about right.

[sb9]

Thanks TRA for another juicy quarterly divvy payout, which landed in the bank a/c today.

[RTM]

Thanks TRA for another juicy quarterly divvy payout, which landed in the bank a/c today.

Ditto....was nearly enough for my rates bill that arrived at the same time.

[winner69]

Tina Turner the Musical is in Sydney next year

Turners should run a promo around it --- win a trip to Sydney to see TINA or something like that

They could even send TINA over there as well .... get rid of her out of NZ and make my day .... she really pisses me off every time she pops up on TV or a video

[Nor]

Mean. .

[Rawz]

Tina Turner the Musical is in Sydney next year

Turners should run a promo around it --- win a trip to Sydney to see TINA or something like that

They could even send TINA over there as well .... get rid of her out of NZ and make my day .... she really pisses me off every time she pops up on TV or a video

wash you mouth out with soap!

[winner69]

wash you mouth out with soap!

Don't you like my idea of Turners running a promo around Tina

I'll suggest it to our Todd

[freebee]

Agree those Tina ads are the worst on radio. I cringe everytime
Well done to Turners if thats what they were aiming for

[Rawz]

Sir Michael Hill said he knew he made it in Australia when the aussies started to hate his ad's and replaced, "Michael Hill, Jeweler", with
"Michael Hill, ****er"

lol

we are a long way off from that legendary status. Need to pump the Tina ad's heaps more. cars cars cars

[winner69]

Sir Michael Hill said he knew he made it in Australia when the aussies started to hate his ad's and replaced, "Michael Hill, Jeweler", with
"Michael Hill, ****er"

lol

we are a long way off from that legendary status. Need to pump the Tina ad's heaps more. cars cars cars

That’s a real old story rawz and only said as an ego trip for Michael himself ….Michael Hill Jeweller never made it big in Australia

[Classic]

Funny, I don't mind the Turners adds at all, I think Tina is very good.
I watch very little TV though, so would only see them about once a fortnight.
Plus I have shares, so hope like hell that they work :-)

[Rawz]

That’s a real old story rawz and only said as an ego trip for Michael himself ….Michael Hill Jeweller never made it big in Australia

Michael Hill has done alright in Aus, W69. Lots and lots of kiwi businesses have gone over there and failed miserably

[mike2020]

I've been looking at cars at turners in the last week and every second picture on every listing is Tina. I grow weary of her face.

[Louloubell]

Focus on cars, not on Tina 😄

[Sideshow Bob]

Focus on cars, not on Tina 

Agree. However I think safe to say Tina has given Turners much more public awareness, for those or like or maybe dislike the campaign a little.

BEEP BEEP! :p

[winner69]

I see there's TINA show on in Wellington in October

SIMPLY THE BEST

https://www.wellingtonnz.com/experience/events/tina-simply-the-best/

[mike2020]

Focus on cars, not on Tina 

I didn't say I dislike her, just that she's everywhere. I mean back of the loo door is over doing it bit isn't it?