TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[alokdhir]

Soon it will be 420 friendly stock ...:p

[Sideshow Bob]

NZX Virtual Investor Preso

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/TRA/419803/404934.pdf

Beep Beep!!

[bull....]

As always Todd Hunter presents well.
Auto retail growing both number of branches and market share.
Timaru new branch looks the goods, and will open shortly.More branches in Christchurch too.
All divisions operating well.Lower interest rates will benefit their Oxford finance.Dividend growth continues.
NZX 50 inclusion looks close.

thx percy all those extra branches will grow sales

[percy]

thx percy all those extra branches will grow sales

The beauty of Turners strong brand is those new branches can hit the ground running on opening.

[winner69]

The beauty of Turners strong brand is those new branches can hit the ground running on opening.

Are they still using the insurance float to fund development?

[bull....]

Are they still using the insurance float to fund development?

must be using that money for something .... might even be bigger than oca float one day with all the growth to come

[percy]

Are they still using the insurance float to fund development?

I would expect so.
In his presentation I think he said TRA owned 14 of their 27 [or 29 sites].

[winner69]

I would expect so.
In his presentation I think he said TRA owned 14 of their 27 [or 29 sites].

And valued in books at cost …none of this revaluation gains stuff ……and quite a big difference between cost and real value ……unrealised eh

[BlackPeter]

thx percy all those extra branches will grow sales

I am sure that the new Christchurch branches will make it much easier for customers to get to them. The entrance to the one site they currently have in ChCh is easy to miss - and when you finally see the site, you missed it already and it takes a couple of k's additionally to turn around and potentially miss it again :);

But another two years to wait for the new sites ... hmm.

[Ggcc]

I am sure that the new Christchurch branches will make it much easier for customers to get to them. The entrance to the one site they currently have in ChCh is easy to miss - and when you finally see the site, you missed it already and it takes a couple of k's additionally to turn around and potentially miss it again :);

But another two years to wait for the new sites ... hmm.

Either way you must be happy you are on board with TRA.

[percy]

And valued in books at cost …none of this revaluation gains stuff ……and quite a big difference between cost and real value ……unrealised eh

Exactly.{Not a lot of people know this..lol.].
Also TRA have traded property very profitably over the years.

[mike2020]

Ive bought a few cheap 4wds from turners christchurch for fishing some off road areas. I dont know why they need another site its huge. Probably lots to display the non auction sales?

[percy]

Ive bought a few cheap 4wds from turners christchurch for fishing some off road areas. I dont know why they need another site its huge. Probably lots to display the non auction sales?
mike 2020.Do not know if anybody has told you this.??......You are an exception...lol

[Snoopy]

Ive bought a few cheap 4wds from turners christchurch for fishing some off road areas. I dont know why they need another site its huge. Probably lots to display the non auction sales?


The main Christchurch site is just off the south eastern corner of Hagley Park. It is leased from Ngai Tahu I think, and I believe our local tribe is getting a very good rental income from Turners. A few years ago when Todd was doing those whistle stop presentations around the country, there was a meeting there which I attended. I remember Todd saying at the time they had been looking to develop their own Christchurch flagship premises and just missed out on what was the old AB Cables site along Blenheim Road.

I don't think there is anything wrong with the Hagley Park location, although the lease dates back from the days when Turners was very much an auction business first and foremost. It would just work better for Turners if they are paying rent to themselves, rather than a third party. I expect that Hagley Park site to be closed down when Turners open their new Christchurch complex, wherever that may be.

SNOOPY

[mike2020]

That makes sense. Timaru should be good, it is a busy place these days. If they make 50% of the stock old Hilux wagons and Patrols they would make a bundle, it's almost a right of passage to own a 4wd down south. Cars that were worth 5k 15 years ago can get double or triple that (even with the extra ks) I wish I had kept all my old Hilux's now. Get some of those on the ferry Todd.

[Norwest]

I went into Turners Hagley today, I got the last car park available and the sales people were run off their feet selling cars.

Compare that to the 3 other car yards I went to... I was the only buyer at each. One even said it has been a slow few months. Not the case for Turners!

I don't hold the stock but they certainly looked like they were making money today.

[toddhunter]

I went into Turners Hagley today, I got the last car park available and the sales people were run off their feet selling cars.

Compare that to the 3 other car yards I went to... I was the only buyer at each. One even said it has been a slow few months. Not the case for Turners!

I don't hold the stock but they certainly looked like they were making money today.


That is great to hear Norwest...I hope your visit was successful for you and for Turners!

Our Christchurch branch expansion is very much around our vehicle sourcing strategy.
The closer our branches are to customers the more vehicles we are able to buy.
The more vehicles we buy the more we are able to sell.

Our branch network is strategically way more important on the vehicle sourcing side of our business than the selling side in many respects. When people are looking to sell a car they are effectively buying a service off us...and consequently it needs to be convenient. When people are buying a car they will actually travel a long way to get the right car at the right price.

Our Hagley Park location is the last of our old auction configured locations. 28,000m2 site with a big warehouse. We now prefer ~10,000m2 sites, easier to manage, not as overwhelming for customers, we can have more of these located closer to our customers, and 10,000m2 sites are much easier to find and less expensive than the big sites with big warehouses.

The two years will come around quick Black Peter!

Hopefully that makes sense.

I also wanted to offer the sharetrader Turners forum a Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself. Not sure if that would be of interest? Please let me know if it is and I will schedule something in. We would run it online at around 530pm one evening.

[iceman]

Thanks Todd for communicating with us ST'ers. I for one would love the opportunity for a Q&A. Great idea thank you.

[Jaa]

That is great to hear Norwest...I hope your visit was successful for you and for Turners!

Our Christchurch branch expansion is very much around our vehicle sourcing strategy.
The closer our branches are to customers the more vehicles we are able to buy.
The more vehicles we buy the more we are able to sell.

Our branch network is strategically way more important on the vehicle sourcing side of our business than the selling side in many respects. When people are looking to sell a car they are effectively buying a service off us...and consequently it needs to be convenient. When people are buying a car they will actually travel a long way to get the right car at the right price.

Our Hagley Park location is the last of our old auction configured locations. 28,000m2 site with a big warehouse. We now prefer ~10,000m2 sites, easier to manage, not as overwhelming for customers, we can have more of these located closer to our customers, and 10,000m2 sites are much easier to find and less expensive than the big sites with big warehouses.

The two years will come around quick Black Peter!

Hopefully that makes sense.

I also wanted to offer the sharetrader Turners forum a Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself. Not sure if that would be of interest? Please let me know if it is and I will schedule something in. We would run it online at around 530pm one evening.

Thanks for the insights Todd. An after hours Q&A would be great. Here's a question for the event, subject of a bit of discussion on here.

What is Turners strategy for sourcing and selling more hybrid and electric cars? Does the NZ sourced car strategy mean Turners is in danger of being 5 years out of date? Selling cars people don't want (they sold them after all) and not cars they do want?

[BlackPeter]

...

Hopefully that makes sense.

I also wanted to offer the sharetrader Turners forum a Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself. Not sure if that would be of interest? Please let me know if it is and I will schedule something in. We would run it online at around 530pm one evening.

Certainly sounds interesting ... and potentially you could run that similar to an "investor day" or "investor event" some other organisations do once a year. I wouldn't see, why this couldn't be run completely online to keep the organisational effort at a minimum.

This would (with NZX notification) avoid the risk that some other investors might complain afterwards about having been kept out of the loop.

In case you are running out of questions for such an event - I am sure, this is something where we can help :) ;

[Jonette]

I also wanted to offer the sharetrader Turners forum a Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself. Not sure if that would be of interest? Please let me know if it is and I will schedule something in. We would run it online at around 530pm one evening.

Yes please. I would especially like to hear from Aaron. His choice of topic

[Ricky-bobby]

Thanks Todd, that would be fantastic!

[winner69]

From the gossip column in BusinessDesk. Seems worth while pumping miei cash into supporting our Liam.



Turners Automotive Group chief executive Todd Hunter points out that “humble” NZ racing driver Liam Lawson doesn’t have a daddy to buy him a Formula 1 team.

Instead, he has been lending his star power to Turners when he’s in the country, appearing with its own TV star, Tina, on social media.

Lawson, who has been filling in for Aussie driver Daniel Ricciardo, has some loyal NZ backers, including Turners and Giltrap Group.

Hunter says Lawson is an understated winner, and the car company’s association with the driver is a “dream come true”. If Lawson does get a full-time seat in Formula 1, keeping the sponsorship going could be tricky,

Hunter says. However, he says Lawson and his team (yep, the 21-year-old has a team) are very conscious of repaying that support. “He's had some supporters, and he wants to be able to repay that royalty, which is great.

So hopefully, hopefully, we can keep sponsoring.” Hunter says Lawson has fought his way to the top on his own merits, and Turners will be there for the long haul, backing the NZ driver with cold hard cash. “He's incredibly driven, and he's never taken for granted the kind of opportunity that he's got. He’s a great person.”

[bull....]

Q&A be good

[toddhunter]

Q&A be good

Why don't we schedule this in for the week after our HY announcement as then at least you will have more information to ask questions about.

530pm on Mon 27th November

I will post a link to the online meeting closer to the time.

Thanks
Todd

[winner69]

Why don't we schedule this in for the week after our HY announcement as then at least you will have more information to ask questions about.

530pm on Mon 27th November

I will post a link to the online meeting closer to the time.

Thanks
Todd

Good one Todd, thanks

Also gives BlackPeter some time to come up with some good questions ;)

[Muse]

Why don't we schedule this in for the week after our HY announcement as then at least you will have more information to ask questions about.

530pm on Mon 27th November

I will post a link to the online meeting closer to the time.

Thanks
Todd

Thats amazing Todd & team…well appreciated

[Sideshow Bob]

Nicely in the money already.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420107

Dividend Reinvestment Plan Strike Price
Turners Automotive Group Limited (NZX, ASX; TRA) wishes to advise that the strike price for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP), operating in respect of the dividend payable on 27 October 2023, has been set at NZ$4.09 per share.

[winner69]

Nicely in the money already.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420107

Dividend Reinvestment Plan Strike Price
Turners Automotive Group Limited (NZX, ASX; TRA) wishes to advise that the strike price for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP), operating in respect of the dividend payable on 27 October 2023, has been set at NZ$4.09 per share.

Should have held back that announcement last week ….would have got more shares eh

[ronaldson]

Nicely in the money already.....

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/420107

Dividend Reinvestment Plan Strike Price
Turners Automotive Group Limited (NZX, ASX; TRA) wishes to advise that the strike price for the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP), operating in respect of the dividend payable on 27 October 2023, has been set at NZ$4.09 per share.

Yes, DRP participation can be particularly beneficial when momentum is in favour. Buyers on hand this morning at $4.26 so a good result, and a non-taxable benefit for most holders.

Larger holders can actually sell sufficient shares on-market now to effectively receive an early cash "dividend" and still be ahead once DRP shares are actually allotted (in this case on 27 October).

[Snoopy]

Yes, DRP participation can be particularly beneficial when momentum is in favour. Buyers on hand this morning at $4.26 so a good result, and a non-taxable benefit for most holders.

Larger holders can actually sell sufficient shares on-market now to effectively receive an early cash "dividend" and still be ahead once DRP shares are actually allotted (in this case on 27 October).


I am sure that ronaldson has been around long enough to know his stuff. Nevertheless, I think the language and the way the above post is worded is a bit misleading on the taxation status of the DRP. Tax is paid before the net amount is re-invested in the DRP. So I don't think it is correct to say the DRP is providing a non-taxable benefit for any holders.

Yes I know, the qualification that ronaldson gave of 'momentum being in our favour' is a nod to the share price rising once the DRP shares are allotted. IOW what ronaldson is alluding to is a free capital gain on the DRP shares. But if it was the intent of a large holder to sell their DRP shares and cash in on the 'capital gain' from the DRP, then I am sorry to say that such a capital gain would legally be taxable. So contrary to what anyone might think, that means there is no 'free lunch' from the tax man on offer here.

SNOOPY

[Muse]

I am sure that ronaldson has been around long enough to know his stuff. Nevertheless, I think the way the above post is worded is a bit misleading on the taxation status of the DRP. Tax is paid before the net amount is re-invested in the DRP. So I don't think it is correct to say the DRP is providing a non-taxable benefit for any holders.

The qualification that ronaldson gave of 'momentum being in our favour' is a nod to the share price rising once the DRP shares are allotted. IOW what ronaldson is alluding to is a free capital gain on the DRP shares. But if it was the intent of a large holder to sell their DRP shares and cash in on the 'capital gain' from the DRP, then I am sorry to say that such a capital gain would legally be taxable. So contrary to what anyone might think, that means there is no 'free lunch' from the tax man on offer here.

SNOOPY

Aye I was thinking the same thing Snoopy, thanks for mentioning.

The funny, grey world of capital vs. revenue account. A shareholder might own their shares on capital account, but if they elect to receive (and de facto acquire shares) from the DRP because there is momentum behind it and quickly sell them to pocket a capital gain, I wouldn't be surprised at all for the IRD (upon review) to take the view the DRP shares were acquired with the intention of sale for gain, and be enough for them to poke around other historic transactions. just my 2c.

[Rawz]

Gosh the IRD can be harsh. Best I keep all my TRA shares :p

[777]

Why sell the DRP shares? Just sell some of the ones that gave you the dividend.

[ronaldson]

Why sell the DRP shares? Just sell some of the ones that gave you the dividend.

Correct. I am simply pointing out that if you sell shares after the ex-date you will receive cash (after T+2) before the DRP shares are allotted/vest. So you are definitely not "selling the DRP shares" per se.

And given that the calculation to issue the DRP shares is invariably at a 1%, 2% or 3% discount to a weighted average market price based mostly on five trading days, this can be advantageous. We live in a society where not all "gain" is taxable. You are certainly neither evading nor reducing your tax liability on the dividend (which is likely to have imputation credits/withholding tax attached/accounted which may in turn be more or less than your ultimate individual tax rate ). And your share sale need not match the amount of the dividend but can/should be greater or lesser depending upon your needs.

[bull....]

Insight investor relations advisor James Schofield says he believes that that Turners Automotive Group is knocking on the door of inclusion in the NZX 50 index in December 2023, according to analyses by NZX Limited, Jarden, and Forsyth Barr Limited

https://autotalk.co.nz/turners-knocking-on-the-door-of-the-nzx-50-index/


i was looking at the register , it appears not many index funds on there at last report

[see weed]

Insight investor relations advisor James Schofield says he believes that that Turners Automotive Group is knocking on the door of inclusion in the NZX 50 index in December 2023, according to analyses by NZX Limited, Jarden, and Forsyth Barr Limited

https://autotalk.co.nz/turners-knocking-on-the-door-of-the-nzx-50-index/


i was looking at the register , it appears not many index funds on there at last report
Yes that is right. Basil on the stock talk site has been promoting this for last month or so. A good company but might wait for the dust to settle before grabbing anymore. But in the short term will grab some more HLG running into the next Div of 24c at 8.35% yld. and 10.73 PE. I think TRA may drop back a wee bit after inclusion like HLG did with all the short term profit traders. HLG dropped about a dollar in the week following inclusion. Should be quite interesting. But in saying that, I would top up with TRA at $3.80 to $4 if it dropped back there before or after inclusion.

[bull....]

Yes that is right. Basil on the stock talk site has been promoting this for last month or so. A good company but might wait for the dust to settle before grabbing anymore. But in the short term will grab some more HLG running into the next Div of 24c at 8.35% yld. and 10.73 PE. I think TRA may drop back a wee bit after inclusion like HLG did with all the short term profit traders. HLG dropped about a dollar in the week following inclusion. Should be quite interesting. But in saying that, I would top up with TRA at $3.80 to $4 if it dropped back there before or after inclusion.

hlg held up pretty well i reckon considering the small volumes in the stock. starting to fall away now maybe insto's finally loaded up

[winner69]

TRA share price not far off all time high of $4.61

That’ll be a good day

[percy]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/Wih892J5BbWyZZ6xsaIqDONw/Ese892pFASumdcRGoF8RYvTg

[winner69]

https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLVth2f3f6IXNYvUBQEg/Wih892J5BbWyZZ6xsaIqDONw/Ese892pFASumdcRGoF8RYvTg

Carly Holdings achieves record number of active subscribers in September quarter

Do turners still own a bit of Carly?

But whatever subscription market on fire

[winner69]

Whatever Turners ‘invested’ in Carly it’s been written down to $230k

Suppose using Carly resources to get the subscription business up and running was key and the ‘real investment’ at the end of the day

[percy]

Carly Holdings achieves record number of active subscribers in September quarter

Do turners still own a bit of Carly?

But whatever subscription market on fire
TRA are the 4th largest shareholder owning 8,582,136 shares or 3.2%
At .15 cents CL8 has a market cap of $4,025,555.

[bull....]

share price topped out ? anyway i see used car prices have started there decline again recently in the US , i believe we do have a correlation to them

[ronaldson]

Buzz gone here too, just like the rest of the market.

[winner69]

Good to see Bartel (Director Petrie) leaving their $600k dividend in the company …taking DRP

[alokdhir]

Almost all here are certain of Index inclusion and subsequent pop in the SP .....just fail to understand the need of the sellers bringing SP down from 4.28 to almost $4 ...is it some game or opportunity for further additions ??

Wondering when will be $ 5 party ? In few weeks or more time needed ....hopefully few weeks please !!!

[Rawz]

Dont see the inclusion helping much. What has it done for HLG? Nothing major in the long run- after initial pop

[winner69]

Almost all here are certain of Index inclusion and subsequent pop in the SP .....just fail to understand the need of the sellers bringing SP down from 4.28 to almost $4 ...is it some game or opportunity for further additions ??

Wondering when will be $ 5 party ? In few weeks or more time needed ....hopefully few weeks please !!!

Kingfish will be looking closely at Turners I reckon ….even more so when TRA is in nzx50

[alokdhir]

Kingfish will be looking closely at Turners I reckon ….esp if in nzx50

"IF" coming from u makes me nervous ....U r the main supporter of NZX50 inclusion thought going on here ...got me involved :scared:

[winner69]

"IF" coming from u makes me nervous ....U r the main supporter of NZX50 inclusion thought going on here ...got me involved :scared:

Sorry mate, lapse of concentration …changed if to when

[alokdhir]

Dont see the inclusion helping much. What has it done for HLG? Nothing major in the long run- after initial pop

Inclusion did its part ...especially a huge pop on huge vols ...then the fundamentals took over

TRA has better fundamentals at present and looking ahead as per current crystal ball readings ...so it shud do better then HLG after inclusion

[alokdhir]

Sorry mate, lapse of concentration …changed if to when

Still question remains buddy ...why sell now when two big and positive announcements round the corner ?

Logic of huge selling going on at present !!! Fails me ....enlighten us mate on why now part ...

[winner69]

Dont see the inclusion helping much. What has it done for HLG? Nothing major in the long run- after initial pop


Initial pop from 550 was great …and ‘pop’ has stayed in place

If it hadn’t got into index share price would below 500 by now I reckon

[BlackPeter]

Still question remains buddy ...why sell now when two big and positive announcements round the corner ?

Logic of huge selling going on at present !!! Fails me ....enlighten us mate on why now part ...

Just a general observation - people and organisations with large holdings (including funds and so called "smart" money) find it much easier to sell when the market expects positive news.

Maybe just some large investors proactively rebalancing their portfolio to avoid later on the rush to the exits?

No doubt - after the inclusion party it will be difficult for large holders to rebalance such an illiquid share.

I wouldn't read too much into the selling pressure other than maybe - some smart money thinking that the current price might well be fair value.

[alokdhir]

Just a general observation - people and organisations with large holdings (including funds and so called "smart" money) find it much easier to sell when the market expects positive news.

Maybe just some large investors proactively rebalancing their portfolio to avoid later on the rush to the exits?

No doubt - after the inclusion party it will be difficult for large holders to rebalance such an illiquid share.

I wouldn't read too much into the selling pressure other than maybe - some smart money thinking that the current price might well be fair value.

Agree with your thoughts that nothing to worry on the business side ...but when and if inclusion happens then we will get super high vols also ...if HLG example is something to keep in mind ...HLG equally illiquid ...had 1.7 Mil traded ...very easy to exit at that time I think ...so maybe Dec 3rd week will be high vols week if it gets included on 2nd Dec announcement

Smart money not waiting is also possible they maybe not expecting inclusion this time around ??

[Muse]

Agree with your thoughts that nothing to worry on the business side ...but when and if inclusion happens then we will get super high vols also ...if HLG example is something to keep in mind ...HLG equally illiquid ...had 1.7 Mil traded ...very easy to exit at that time I think ...so maybe Dec 3rd week will be high vols week if it gets included on 2nd Dec announcement

Smart money not waiting is also possible they maybe not expecting inclusion this time around ??

There are 3 index inclusion trackers that I’m aware of and they universally expect inclusion in Dec.

[alokdhir]

There are 3 index inclusion trackers that I’m aware of and they universally expect inclusion in Dec.

I am so happy with your assurance mate ...W69 is also a great tracker along with Mr B ...lol

[Muse]

Just repeating what I read in the reports, nothing more

[alokdhir]

W69 ...if TRA does cross $ 5 then will join u all at Mr B 's boat party ....fingers crossed and holding breath :p

What are the chances ? First over $ 4.50 on HY results rest on index inclusion announcement ??

[bull....]

share price topped out ? anyway i see used car prices have started there decline again recently in the US , i believe we do have a correlation to them

released this week used car prices in the US still falling

https://site.manheim.com/en/services/consulting/used-vehicle-value-index.html

[alokdhir]

How many days to Index Inclusion announcement ? W69 is counting it by seconds I am sure ...maybe first is 22nd HY results ...which they have already flagged is better then anticipation ...they have announced a floor but upside surprise is still OPEN ...so still good chance of that .

W69 here and Mr B there getting super excited ...:p

.https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NZX-TRA/technicals/

[Muse]

Not sure if I am stretching here but wonder if 2CC’s new focus on margin and lift in their pricing is having a positive impact on TRA and their volumes. Appreciate they play in slightly different segments and price points but can’t be a bad thing having one of the larger competitors lifting their prices.

[Jonette]

Not sure if I am stretching here but wonder if 2CC’s new focus on margin and lift in their pricing is having a positive impact on TRA and their volumes. Appreciate they play in slightly different segments and price points but can’t be a bad thing having one of the larger competitors lifting their prices.

2CC is way too small to impact Turners. Turners have close to 10% of the NZ second hand market, 2CC would be lucky to have 1%.

[Rawz]

2CC is way too small to impact Turners. Turners have close to 10% of the NZ second hand market, 2CC would be lucky to have 1%.

pretty sure i read in one of their reports they have 7% market share

[Rawz]

2CC is way too small to impact Turners. Turners have close to 10% of the NZ second hand market, 2CC would be lucky to have 1%.


pretty sure i read in one of their reports they have 7% market share

less than i thought- i assume they are talking about the used car market when they say 4.5%. not of the total market

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/412150

2 Cheap Cars grew its market share for the 12 months to 4.5% , up from 4.4% in the same period last year.
The business sold 8,367 vehicles in FY23 which is up 6% on the same period last year.

[winner69]

Yes to March 23 2CC reported 8,367 sales

Turners reported 19,500 sales plus another 18,500 from auctions

Suppose it’s what market segment you use to calculate market share

[Muse]

Thanks all. My thought probably was a stretch.

[Louloubell]

Volume of shares traded is increasing. The big boys buying prior to inclusion in the NZ50?

[alokdhir]

I am failing to understand the psyche of big sellers these days ? What thoughts they have to sell just before two super positive announcements ??

Fails me completely !! Any logical explanations can update my knowledge of the markets behaviour please

[Muse]

I am failing to understand the psyche of big sellers these days ? What thoughts they have to sell just before two super positive announcements ??

Fails me completely !! Any logical explanations can update my knowledge of the markets behaviour please

agree - if one wanted to sell - seems logical to want to do it on or close to index inclusion day based on trends seen from HLG/WHS/CEN & MEL (green index) inclusions. Not all selling holders will be aware of the index inclusion, maybe for some it is just their own cashflow situation & timing requirements, and plenty of holders have seen good gains at the spot price. maybe used car aficionados rebalancing into the 2cc excitement

Would expect to see higher volumes w/ the good recent momentum and traders buying positions early to sell into the index pop but for every buyer there is a seller and can only guess what the sellers motivations are. I'm not aware of anything more than that.

average daily volume over the last yr about 29,000 shares/pd
Last 5 sessions: ~32k (+10%)
Last 10 sessions: ~39k (+36%)
Last 20 sessions: 38k (+33%)

Certainly no where near where the volume we will get to closer to the day.

[alokdhir]

agree - if one wanted to sell - seems logical to want to do it on or close to index inclusion day based on trends seen from HLG/WHS/CEN & MEL (green index) inclusions. Not all selling holders will be aware of the index inclusion, maybe for some it is just their own cashflow situation & timing requirements, and plenty of holders have seen good gains at the spot price. maybe used car aficionados rebalancing into the 2cc excitement

Would expect to see higher volumes w/ the good recent momentum and traders buying positions early to sell into the index pop but for every buyer there is a seller and can only guess what the sellers motivations are. I'm not aware of anything more than that.

average daily volume over the last yr about 29,000 shares/pd
Last 5 sessions: ~32k (+10%)
Last 10 sessions: ~39k (+36%)
Last 20 sessions: 38k (+33%)

Certainly no where near where the volume we will get to closer to the day.

Thanks Muse for your very helpful and informative inputs ...hopefully it will work out very well for the holders like us ...next 30 days can be fun !!

[Sideshow Bob]

Pencil in for Wednesday morning....:)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421841

Weblink for Turners HY24 Results Presentation
Todd Hunter (Group CEO) and Aaron Saunders (Group CFO) will present the HY24 financial results followed by Q&A at 10:30am on 22 November 2023.
To register for the meeting please click the link:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_qQ2UnJwyQKG8ER5kdLlYNw
ENDS

[alokdhir]

Next 10 days will see two important announcements ...fingers crossed they go as per plan :t_up:

[ronaldson]

Pencil in for Wednesday morning....:)

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/421841

Weblink for Turners HY24 Results Presentation
Todd Hunter (Group CEO) and Aaron Saunders (Group CFO) will present the HY24 financial results followed by Q&A at 10:30am on 22 November 2023.
To register for the meeting please click the link:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_qQ2UnJwyQKG8ER5kdLlYNw
ENDS

Half an hour ahead of the OCA call at 11.00am will make it hard to do both.

[bull....]

Next 10 days will see two important announcements ...fingers crossed they go as per plan :t_up:

picking a slight beat on update

[winner69]

Half an hour ahead of the OCA call at 11.00am will make it hard to do both.

One’ll be upbeat …other funeral like I reckon

[toddhunter]

Hi there everyone wanted to schedule in the Q&A with Aaron Saunders and myself for this Friday (24/4) at 5pm. Link below for registration.

You can ask questions on Friday either through the audio function, or the Q&A function or you can email me any questions to todd.hunter@turners.co.nz


You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Nov 24, 2023 17:00 Auckland, Wellington
Topic: Turners Q&A for Sharetrader Community
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_5kSbimoFR0SqI304ByfFRQ
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

[Muse]

Thanks todd nice work

[percy]

A cracker.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422080

[Rawz]

A cracker.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/422080

Very good result considering the state of the economy.

Being invested in used cars has been extremely profitable lol

[bull....]

good result , have a good read later but quick glance looks like auto going gangbusters esp margin expansion

[Rawz]

A good result even though finance division is struggling with NIM dropping.

Finance not long ago generated more income than auto if i recall correctly.

If we are at peak rates the finance division is going to start generating much better returns and if auto carries on smashing it out of the park then we are in for some great years ahead with healthy increases in EPS and DPS

[Muse]

Yes a very fine result.

One thing that puzzles me is their commentary and conservativeness on the full year dividend guidance.

YTD declared divs of $10.5m is 56.8% of NPAT of $18.5m. Or in round terms 12 cents a share.

Last year first half divs of $8.67m was 50.7% payout of $17.1m. Or in round terms 10 cents a share.

NPAT current up +8% on last year, DPS up 20% or 2cps.

But the full year "at least" guidance of 24cps is only 1 cent more than last year or up 4%. If 24dps was achieved that would imply 2H dividends per share would have gone backward by 1 cent. Doesn't feel like a realistic outcome and 25dps for the full year would be achieved even if the remainder of the year repeated last years second half. And I'd hope for a bit of growth on top of last years result.

MGMT obviously balance the comment by saying "at least" but wonder if overly conservative and doing a very slight deserve by focusing on the gross yield at what would appear to be a highly conservative 24dps forecast.

I might be splitting hairs or perhaps missing something in terms of what is to come in the 2nd half (perhaps capex associated with the network buildout?)

[alokdhir]

Yes a very fine result.

One thing that puzzles me is their commentary and conservativeness on the full year dividend guidance.

YTD declared divs of $10.5m is 56.8% of NPAT of $18.5m. Or in round terms 12 cents a share.

Last year first half divs of $8.67m was 50.7% payout of $17.1m. Or in round terms 10 cents a share.

NPAT current up +8% on last year, DPS up 20% or 2cps.

But the full year "at least" guidance of 24cps is only 1 cent more than last year or up 4%. If 24dps was achieved that would imply 2H dividends per share would have gone backward by 1 cent. Doesn't feel like a realistic outcome and 25dps for the full year would be achieved even if the remainder of the year repeated last years second half. And I'd hope for a bit of growth on top of last years result.

MGMT obviously balance the comment by saying "at least" but wonder if overly conservative and doing a very slight deserve by focusing on the gross yield at what would appear to be a highly conservative 24dps forecast.

I might be splitting hairs or perhaps missing something in terms of what is to come in the 2nd half.

Fully agree ...Nice result inspite of finance division under pressure ...so automatically it will become accretive when rates outlook / NIM improve ...something else to look forward to . NZX50 inclusion on cards ...shud propel it to $ 4.50 today or soon ...all must be rejoicing making money out of used cars ...Rawz did the best ...he has both beauties ...Percy too !! Well done mates :t_up:

PS : W69 / Mr B's plan working very fine ...$ 4.50 after results ...$ 5 after inclusion announcement ...Party time for all :p

[Muse]

Fully agree ...Nice result inspite of finance division under pressure ...so automatically it will become accretive when rates outlook / NIM improve ...something else to look forward to . NZX50 inclusion on cards ...shud propel it to $ 4.50 today or soon ...all must be rejoicing making money out of used cars ...Rawz did the best ...he has both beauties ...Percy too !! Well done mates :t_up:

I admire TRA as it has done well in spite of market conditions not because of them. Business has done a fantastic job with its brand, retail strategy, smartly developing and building out its network, etc. And I am hopeful the used car market by vehicle numbers has turned a corner (graph on page 6 of preso) which all else equal should provide a tailwind together with (hopefully) NIM tailwinds should interest rate recede at some point. Marketshare holding up and improving but one thing to keep an eye on is the # of registered dealers also looks to have bottomed and might be improving (page 7 preso) so will be important to watch those marketshare stats in the future, though the business seems to have the initiatives in place to improve marketshare to their 10% target.

[Muse]

Enjoyed the presentation this morning and always get a lot of confidence when I hear management speak. These guys are 100% across the business and good buggers to boot. Provided more flavour on what to expect on the 2h, some of the seasonality patterns relative to last year (timing of easter may bring down the month of march etc), and a reminder on the cyclone damage one offs earlier in the year.

[ronaldson]

Fully agree ...Nice result inspite of finance division under pressure ...so automatically it will become accretive when rates outlook / NIM improve ...something else to look forward to . NZX50 inclusion on cards ...shud propel it to $ 4.50 today or soon ...all must be rejoicing making money out of used cars ...Rawz did the best ...he has both beauties ...Percy too !! Well done mates :t_up:

PS : W69 / Mr B's plan working very fine ...$ 4.50 after results ...$ 5 after inclusion announcement ...Party time for all :p

$4.50 seems highly likely today, and certainly by week's end as this result is fully digested by Mr Market. And we will know by 1 December whether index inclusion has indeed been secured so further increase beckons, although given inclusion would not be a surprise you would expect index funds to have some preparitory strategy in place already.

[Habits]

My small holding of TRA is becoming a bigger proportion of the portfolio as the fortunes of TRA rise

[bull....]

had a good read of results now , got a few questions nothing major just some clarifications on stuff

[alokdhir]

$4.50 seems highly likely today, and certainly by week's end as this result is fully digested by Mr Market. And we will know by 1 December whether index inclusion has indeed been secured so further increase beckons, although given inclusion would not be a surprise you would expect index funds to have some preparitory strategy in place already.

Doing better then my expectations for the day ...Index inclusion is almost a done deal and will need appox 2.2 mil shares to be bought by local index funds like NZG / FNZ etc ...thats a tall task for TRA liquidity ...wont be surprised it gets squeezed to even $ 5.50 ...reason being who will like to sell such a future prospect ...hen which lays golden eggs ...why kill it !!! :D

[winner69]

Official …… Todd says guidance is FY24 full year result will be ahead of FY23

That means full year will be ahead of $45.5m (npbt)

Rolling 12 months (H223 + H124) is $47.8m

Seems Todd is teasing us all ……Turners not going backwards in H224 is it …..even in this ‘macro environment’ …..he may as well come out now and say it’ll be $50m …or if he wants to be conservative could just say ‘close to $50m

Never mind, share price on fire …it’ll be well over 5 bucks after Christmas ….maybe even approaching 6 bucks

[Jaa]

Good results..

Their risks page doesn't make much sense to me though. Surely the risk is rapid interest rate changes not just that interest rates will increase rapidly. Wouldn't a sharp drop in the OCR cause short/medium issues considering they have a high level of interest rate hedging?

[alokdhir]

W69 ...when will u bring out your super sized holding of TRA to the market ...please help us understand what is possible ahead ...U have much clearer crystal ball then most of us !! :p

[Sideshow Bob]

Glad I bought in last week.

My daughter has a nice little proportion of her portfolio in Turners for a while.

Beep Beep!! :)

[Sideshow Bob]

Should be compulsory for all shareholders and would make ideal Xmas presents for the family.....:t_up:

TINA FROM TURNERS - TEE – Tavlova (https://tavlova.com/products/tina-from-turners-tee)

[winner69]

Is this an ALL TIME HIGH

[winner69]

W69 ...when will u bring out your super sized holding of TRA to the market ...please help us understand what is possible ahead ...U have much clearer crystal ball then most of us !! :p

Rang that guy Peek up and said when you want some TRA give me a buzz and we’ll do a deal.

He said thry not interested in Turners ……bit risky maybe

[Rawz]

Rang that guy Meek up and said when you want some TRA give me a buzz and we’ll do a deal.

He said thry not interested in Turners ……bit risky maybe

Risky?? Meek seems appropriate lol

[winner69]

Risky?? Meek seems appropriate lol

Quite good how Matt Peek ended up as Meek

Suppose alokdhir wouldn’t agree

[Ggcc]

Haven’t seen any posts from Black Peter for a while. Hope he still owns his shares in this great company.

[alokdhir]

Rang that guy Peek up and said when you want some TRA give me a buzz and we’ll do a deal.

He said thry not interested in Turners ……bit risky maybe

Looks like U did a private placement deal with Meek ...pls enlighten us what price u were ready to part with Tina ?? :p

[percy]

A very strong result from Motor Trade Finance.
Net interest income and fees have increased 32% to $45.8m
• Operating expense ratio has decreased 1%
• Profit after tax has increased 38% to $11.6m
• Underlying profit after tax has increased 71% to $11.3m

[Rawz]

A very strong result from Motor Trade Finance.
Net interest income and fees have increased 32% to $45.8m
• Operating expense ratio has decreased 1%
• Profit after tax has increased 38% to $11.6m
• Underlying profit after tax has increased 71% to $11.3m

wow impressive

[toddhunter]

Q&A with Aaron and I starting at 5pm for those interested.

You can ask questions on Friday either through the audio function, or the Q&A function or you can email me any questions to todd.hunter@turners.co.nz


You are invited to a Zoom webinar.
When: Nov 24, 2023 17:00 Auckland, Wellington
Topic: Turners Q&A for Sharetrader Community
Register in advance for this webinar:
https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/regi...R0SqI304ByfFRQ (https://turners.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_5kSbimoFR0SqI304ByfFRQ)
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.

[Jonette]

Todd asked that I publish my website - happy to provide it - I update this page pretty near every Monday by updating the datawrapper chart. The website is neglected, but the chart is constantly updated

https://www.jonette.co.nz/turners-automotive/advertised-cars.html

Or https://www.datawrapper.de/_/GeaXh/?v=79

[Rawz]

How did the Q&A go? Any recording?
Friday after work beers got me

[percy]

I missed the first 10 minutes.
Turners are very happy sourcing most of the vehicles they sell in NZ.Means they get them saleable and sold very quickly.
Finance book cycle takes around 24 or 27 months.Next September all the low interest rate loans will end.Means the NIM margin is starting to improve,and then will be back to high.
Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up.
Working on a number of opportunities ,with more available in the current property market.
Interesting Todd mentioned a number of the board are involved in these deals.
Seems there really is a "team" effort right through the business,from The Chairman,the board,management and staff.
A lot of very capable people enjoying their work and achieving great results for themselves and shareholders.
Todd and Aaron were very generous giving us their time.
I thank them.

ps.Beagle asked good questions,which were answered fully

pps.I think people under estimate just how clever Turners are with their property deals.
Any property they buy and develop they get the development margin,and the property is valued higher as it is leased to a listed national client,ie Turners Cars.
Great use of part of their insurance float.

[Habits]

"Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up."

Is there any uplift in property values as a result. Does turners do sale and lease back

Edit: you have answered the first part re development margin etc

[percy]

"Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up."

Is there any uplift in property values as a result. Does turners do sale and lease back

Edit: you have answered the first part re development margin etc
Second part of your question..The properties are owned by Turners Property Holdings Ltd.
A lot of the funding comes from Turners Insurance co.So although not sold they are most probably leased by Turners retail.
Winner 69 on the other channel pointed out there will be a difference between book and market value of these properties.
I expect it will be huge.

[bull....]

Todd asked that I publish my website - happy to provide it - I update this page pretty near every Monday by updating the datawrapper chart. The website is neglected, but the chart is constantly updated

https://www.jonette.co.nz/turners-automotive/advertised-cars.html

Or https://www.datawrapper.de/_/GeaXh/?v=79

interesting. can you break down the inventory any further to vehicle categories and price points ? would provide more insight into shifts in turners inventory holdings.

[bull....]

I missed the first 10 minutes.
Turners are very happy sourcing most of the vehicles they sell in NZ.Means they get them saleable and sold very quickly.
Finance book cycle takes around 24 or 27 months.Next September all the low interest rate loans will end.Means the NIM margin is starting to improve,and then will be back to high.
Interest rates are affecting property owners and prices.They are buying a property in Tauranga for $8.5mil that the owner turned down $11.5 mil for a year ago.
They are happy with long settlement dates on property they buy,as it means they can get consents and their plans organised for how they want the site set up.
Working on a number of opportunities ,with more available in the current property market.
Interesting Todd mentioned a number of the board are involved in these deals.
Seems there really is a "team" effort right through the business,from The Chairman,the board,management and staff.
A lot of very capable people enjoying their work and achieving great results for themselves and shareholders.
Todd and Aaron were very generous giving us their time.
I thank them.

ps.Beagle asked good questions,which were answered fully

pps.I think people under estimate just how clever Turners are with their property deals.
Any property they buy and develop they get the development margin,and the property is valued higher as it is leased to a listed national client,ie Turners Cars.
Great use of part of their insurance float.

were there many people at the meeting ?
i imagine in the long run the property ownership becomes a cash annuity

[Jonette]

interesting. can you break down the inventory any further to vehicle categories and price points ? would provide more insight into shifts in turners inventory holdings.

no sorry but I can break it by region. Price points would have taken a lot more of my time to collect. I simply add this data on to my longer standing inventory collection I do for rental property, so the data I collect is similar, yes that’s was not as useful as expected. I’ll look at something going forward. Trademe make it difficult for greater than 30,000 totals so a national look would be troublesome, but possible.

i do a check on subscriptions however, that’s now much easier https://www.datawrapper.de/_/NGtpq/?v=4

[alokdhir]

How many sleeps before the next BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ? I was told Friday night 2am someone will post the link of the impending good news

NZX50 Inclusion and maybe Midcap Index inclusion both together and exit small cap index ??

NZX50 is followed by NZG and FNZ of smart shares ...big money funds as they are part of their low cost KiwiSaver funds

MDZ folows Midcap index ...which can be additional buying if included ...maybe already part of it ...I have no idea ...but from memory I recall it includes all rest 38 stocks of NZX50 which are not part of top ten index followed by TNZ ...so I reckon getting into NZX50 first time will get TRA into MDZ ie mid cap index too !!

[bull....]

How many sleeps before the next BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ? I was told Friday night 2am someone will post the link of the impending good news

NZX50 Inclusion and maybe Midcap Index inclusion both together and exit small cap index ??

NZX50 is followed by NZG and FNZ of smart shares ...big money funds as they are part of their low cost KiwiSaver funds

MDZ folows Midcap index ...which can be additional buying if included ...maybe already part of it ...I have no idea ...but from memory I recall it includes all rest 38 stocks of NZX50 which are not part of top ten index followed by TNZ ...so I reckon getting into NZX50 first time will get TRA into MDZ ie mid cap index too !!

since rumour of index inclusion mid sept vol has doubled on average per day . imagine some fund brought most of it and will sell for profit to index fund if index inclusion happens.

[alokdhir]

since rumour of index inclusion mid sept vol has doubled on average per day . imagine some fund brought most of it and will sell for profit to index fund if index inclusion happens.

I really enjoy your positivity about all issues ...lol

Yes but then mostly retail interest also increased ...our forum mates can vouch for that ...many original holders like Mr B and W69 added more for the index pop ...funds dont get involved in such small matters ...imo

[bull....]

I really enjoy your positivity about all issues ...lol

Yes but then mostly retail interest also increased ...our forum mates can vouch for that ...many original holders like Mr B and W69 added more for the index pop ...funds dont get involved in such small matters ...imo

there been over 2 mil traded since mid sept. if we say at average of $4 thats 8 mil dollars worth i dont think beagle or winner are the buyers. maybe they brought 2000 share each lol of the 2 mil

[alokdhir]

there been over 2 mil traded since mid sept. if we say at average of $4 thats 8 mil dollars worth i dont think beagle or winner are the buyers. maybe they brought 2000 share each lol of the 2 mil

U underestimate many here ...During HLG pop ...only seaweed bought 150,000 ....rest u can extrapolate

[bull....]

U underestimate many here ...During HLG pop ...only seaweed bought 150,000 ....rest u can extrapolate

i dont know if i should believe that. if he like beagle they just say what ever fits there narrative. anyway 400k of shares traded last week at around current prices. 2 mil worth

[alokdhir]

i dont know if i should believe that. if he like beagle they just say what ever fits there narrative. anyway 400k of shares traded last week at around current prices. 2 mil worth

Almost all bought over $ 4.50 ie after the results must be non retail ...as our retail especially our forum mates are very bargain conscious ....and it was no longer in bargain territory ...or cud be very informed index inclusion based buying / warehousers for passing to funds on 15th Dec

We will know for sure next Monday how it behaves ....if inclusion announcement comes as expected by most !!

[alokdhir]

i dont know if i should believe that. if he like beagle they just say what ever fits there narrative. anyway 400k of shares traded last week at around current prices. 2 mil worth

IF it gets included in NZX50 ...it will be surely included in FNZ fund size $ 585 Mil ...even 1% will be $ 6 mil , NZG fund size $ 648 mil ...1% will be $ 7 mil and MDZ fund size $ 138 mil ....1% additional $ 2M maybe ...these are only Smart shares local ETFs ...maybe many foreign funds may also be tracking NZX50 index .

its safe to assume additional requirements for all these funds maybe of order of $ 25 mil worth of stock ...all this squeezed in 10 trading sessions starting from 4th Monday Dec 2023 ....yes many operators and brokers would have prepared to help funds get their requirements ...so your $8 mil traded can be half for this ...rest still need be done ....imo IF INCLUDED $ 5.20+ possible ...just my rough estimate ...and all know I am always very OPTIMISTIC ...:D

[Muse]

IF it gets included in NZX50 ...it will be surely included in FNZ fund size $ 585 Mil ...even 1% will be $ 6 mil , NZG fund size $ 648 mil ...1% will be $ 7 mil and MDZ fund size $ 138 mil ....1% additional $ 2M maybe ...these are only Smart shares local ETFs ...maybe many foreign funds may also be tracking NZX50 index .

its safe to assume additional requirements for all these funds maybe of order of $ 25 mil worth of stock ...all this squeezed in 10 trading sessions starting from 4th Monday Dec 2023 ....yes many operators and brokers would have prepared to help funds get their requirements ...so your $8 mil traded can be half for this ...rest still need be done ....imo IF INCLUDED $ 5.20+ possible ...just my rough estimate ...and all know I am always very OPTIMISTIC ...:D

So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=Muse;1031805]So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...[/QUOTE

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/media-center/news-announcements/#indexNews

It will show here ...NZX announcement will be first to show ...dated 1st Dec 2023 ...but dont know the exact time ...surely after market close ...comes from Sydney office if last announcement is the cue .

Yes ..will be fun ...hopefully it will do better then HLG as its on UPTREND on fundamental basis also unlike HLG at that time ...just like GTK ...results were great and that leading to bigger inclusion pop ...I reckon

[bull....]

[QUOTE=Muse;1031805]So its currently estimated that 2.2 million shares may need to be purchased by index trackers. That is 2.5% of TRA shares on issue, or about 72 normal trading days (rolling last 12 month daily average volume is about 30,599 per session).

Daily volume has increased, on the back of good financial performance & releases, but no doubt traders taking early positions. Last 40 trading session average volume is ~47,800, an excess of 17.2k extra per day over those 40 sessions. That is a touch more additional volume than other recent index inclusion experiences at the same trading day before inclusion. That's about 688k excess volume over that period but clearly not all of it will be on account of people buying to on sell to index funds (or potentially index trackers buying via warehousing agents but I wouldn't have thought that process would occur until after the formal announcement).

I'd imagine index funds once the announcement is made will sound out institutional trading desks looking to source large blocks of shares. They could potentially contract up early after the announcement to acquire a set number of shares in the closing process on the eve of inclusion at some prevailing VWAP leading to the close, and also buying on market to fill up the cracks in the intervening period. Then of course there is a hell of a lot of trading amongst traders/investors piggy backing off the momentum.

Either way there is a lot of volume to be traded from next Monday to the 15th of December.

Will be fun to watch and see how it compares to other inclusions, and of course participate in for those inclined!

Gentrack really going hard - my how that one has flown...[/QUOTE

https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/media-center/news-announcements/#indexNews

It will show here ...NZX announcement will be first to show ...dated 1st Dec 2023 ...but dont know the exact time ...surely after market close ...comes from Sydney office if last announcement is the cue .

Yes ..will be fun ...hopefully it will do better then HLG as its on UPTREND on fundamental basis also unlike HLG at that time ...just like GTK ...results were great and that leading to bigger inclusion pop ...I reckon

yrp hlg had a pop on inclusion then a selldown 3 days later and then a pop but never regained the high's of the pop. now steady share price surprisingly

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1031809]

yrp hlg had a pop on inclusion then a selldown 3 days later and then a pop but never regained the high's of the pop. now steady share price surprisingly

Here we are talking about pop of inclusion now ...also difference being as mentioned in my above post ...HLG fundamentals were weak at inclusion while TRA is totally opposite ...expecting bigger POP :D

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;1031837]

Here we are talking about pop of inclusion now ...also difference being as mentioned in my above post ...HLG fundamentals were weak at inclusion while TRA is totally opposite ...expecting bigger POP :D

actually it turned out hlg fundamentals were good when they posted results. as i said surprising to me considering retail in general.

[alokdhir]

[QUOTE=alokdhir;1031846]

actually it turned out hlg fundamentals were good when they posted results. as i said surprising to me considering retail in general.

MFT also posted great results ...but they are historic ...next results which matter mate ...u know better then me ...now MFT posted worst results but SP zooming ...got the drift buddy

[bull....]

[QUOTE=bull....;1031848]

MFT also posted great results ...but they are historic ...next results which matter mate ...u know better then me ...now MFT posted worst results but SP zooming ...got the drift buddy

is that your load at 4.85 ? is that the pop level

[see weed]

This is my view of it. This is just a passing thought. I do not trust the depth. It could be a lot of big holders with floating big orders to sell at around 4.85 to $5, just to keep the sp stable. Next week after the announcement tomorrow you may see those orders float away and disappear so then there is a clear run up to 4.85 and beyond to $5 just a theory I maybe wrong.

[winner69]

Hey alokdhir ….you on duty all night and will post outcome as soon as announcement?

Thanks in advance and

[ronaldson]

It's official. NZXO announced. GTK and TRA added to NZX50 index and MidCap Index and removed from Small Cap index.

Reverse applies to SML and PEB.

[777]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/422832/408802.pdf

[Rawz]

Congrats to Todd and team for driving earnings growth to allow for the increase in market cap and entry into top 50.

I personally have only ever bought TRA shares and see no point in selling in an inclusion pump. Happy to hold as the company continues to expand over the next 5 years onwards

[Muse]

Congrats to Todd and team for driving earnings growth to allow for the increase in market cap and entry into top 50

Yes full credit to the team - well appreciated by your shareholders.

[alokdhir]

Hey alokdhir ….you on duty all night and will post outcome as soon as announcement?

Thanks in advance and

Buddy announcement came earlier then I thought ....as it originates from their Sydney office and not Geneva ....U have done it mate ...Congrats ...for doing it again...U just a super genius ...lol :t_up:

[alokdhir]

How many sleeps before the next BIG ANNOUNCEMENT ? I was told Friday night 2am someone will post the link of the impending good news

NZX50 Inclusion and maybe Midcap Index inclusion both together and exit small cap index ??

NZX50 is followed by NZG and FNZ of smart shares ...big money funds as they are part of their low cost KiwiSaver funds

MDZ folows Midcap index ...which can be additional buying if included ...maybe already part of it ...I have no idea ...but from memory I recall it includes all rest 38 stocks of NZX50 which are not part of top ten index followed by TNZ ...so I reckon getting into NZX50 first time will get TRA into MDZ ie mid cap index too !!

Exactly like I thought ...NZX 50 inclusion and Midcap Index inclusion ...so FNZ / NZG / MDZ plus extra buyers surely ...$ 5.22 + is my target !!!

[bull....]

Exactly like I thought ...NZX 50 inclusion and Midcap Index inclusion ...so FNZ / NZG / MDZ plus extra buyers surely ...$ 5.22 + is my target !!!

cool. anything over 5 is good for my bottom line.

[alokdhir]

Recent inclusions of similar stocks albeit not in their prime time ie HLG / VSL have shown a POP of 11-12.7 % from a day before announcement .

CHI was an exception it just popped less then 5% ...maybe too liquid ...not sure why not ...as that also got included in NZX50 plus portfolio plus mid cap index in March 2023

Keeping in view history of HLG / VSL ( only mid cap index inclusion ) and general positivity around TRA ...I am picking a target of $ 5.22 + before the inclusion transfer ....but also need bear in mind whole forum here was expecting it and prepared for it ...can be negative for SP ...lol

[Rawz]

Recent inclusions of similar stocks albeit not in their prime time ie HLG / VSL have shown a POP of 11-12.7 % from a day before announcement .

CHI was an exception it just popped less then 5% ...maybe too liquid ...not sure why not ...as that also got included in NZX50 plus portfolio plus mid cap index in March 2023

Keeping in view history of HLG / VSL ( only mid cap index inclusion ) and general positivity around TRA ...I am picking a target of $ 5.22 + before the inclusion transfer ....but also need bear in mind whole forum here was expecting it and prepared for it ...can be negative for SP ...lol
Are you looking to sell on the pop?

[winner69]

Hope shares go to $5.50 plus

[alokdhir]

Are you looking to sell on the pop?

Not yet decided ...getting overly influenced by very very positive posts here about its future ...also have seen HLG did a pop then a bust but did stabilise pretty well after inclusion ...so this may also do similar or better ...keeping in view its doing better currently then HLG ...also growing dividends are always welcome if the SP remains steady ...

Here I am just trying to learn what happens during such times etc ...so mentally trying to think ahead ...W69 thinks its $ 5.50+ POP ...then it will stay above $5 after that also ...hopefully :cool:

[winner69]

Not yet decided ...getting overly influenced by very very positive posts here about its future ...also have seen HLG did a pop then a bust but did stabilise pretty well after inclusion ...so this may also do similar or better ...keeping in view its doing better currently then HLG ...also growing dividends are always welcome if the SP remains steady ...

Here I am just trying to learn what happens during such times etc ...so mentally trying to think ahead ...W69 thinks its $ 5.50+ POP ...then it will stay above $5 after that also ...hopefully :cool:


Big POP next few weeks and then stabilise around $5 plus or minus a bit …..and then another run up after Christmas when a few brokers pick it in the Brokers Tips feature

[Rawz]

Big POP next few weeks and then stabilise around $5 plus or minus a bit …..and then another run up after Christmas when a few brokers pick it in the Brokers Tips feature
Not a bad call there winner grinner.

HGH did a very nice run up to $2.60 thanks to the broker picks last year

[mike2020]

Not a bad call there winner grinner.

HGH did a very nice run up to $2.60 thanks to the broker picks last year
Here's hoping they give it another shot this year too. Certainly needs something.

[alokdhir]

Here's hoping they give it another shot this year too. Certainly needs something.

Here is the folly of following or getting overly influenced by promoters or Gurus ...they are quick to move on as they DID recognise the long downtrend way early but many still keep holding as they still like the yield ...TRA / HLG they moved to ...leaving HGH behind long time back ...TRA has yield plus SP appreciation ...need keep pace with smart investor's ideas ...lol

[percy]

Here is the folly of following or getting overly influenced by promoters or Gurus ...they are quick to move on as they DID recognise the long downtrend way early but many still keep holding as they still like the yield ...TRA / HLG they moved to ...leaving HGH behind long time back ...TRA has yield plus SP appreciation ...need keep pace with smart investor's ideas ...lol

Some " Promotors" and "Gurus" hold HGH [bought under 60 cents],HLG,and TRA.
The odd one added 2CC to their portfolio under 35 cents.
Why would they sell HGH when their yield is nearly 20% on cost.?.{in fact they are enjoying a "free ride"].
Holding a "free" bank stock is a good idea for any portfolio in my opinion.

[Rawz]

HGH did get well over valued thou. Wasn’t it trading 1.6x NAV? Where as 1.1x more of the historic avg multiple

[percy]

HGH did get well over valued thou. Wasn’t it trading 1.6x NAV? Where as 1.1x more of the historic avg multiple

HGH has been both over valued and under valued at times.
And I would guess valued correctly at in between times.

[winner69]

HGH has been both over valued and under valued at times.
And I would guess valued correctly at in between times.

That’s how things work eh percy

Like the nzdusd has a long term average but in reality it trades within +/- X%points only a small percentage of the time as it goes up and down

[alokdhir]

Some " Promotors" and "Gurus" hold HGH [bought under 60 cents],HLG,and TRA.
The odd one added 2CC to their portfolio under 35 cents.
Why would they sell HGH when their yield is nearly 20% on cost.?.{in fact they are enjoying a "free ride"].
Holding a "free" bank stock is a good idea for any portfolio in my opinion.

If u talking about yourself mate then I will just highlight what have been told to me many times here ...its the use of the capital which matters ....guess how much more capital growth wud have come from a share who was not only providing yield but growing its SP too ....its just a thought ...nothing more ...its all about better use of our limited capital ...so it makes sense to move on from downtrend stocks when u still have many uptrend ones in your portfolio and thoughts

[percy]

If u talking about yourself mate then I will just highlight what have been told to me many times here ...its the use of the capital which matters ....guess how much more capital growth wud have come from a share who was not only providing yield but growing its SP too ....its just a thought ...nothing more ...its all about better use of our limited capital ...so it makes sense to move on from downtrend stocks when u still have many uptrend ones in your portfolio and thoughts

HGH are part of our core dividend portfolios.
Having a solid dividend income allows me to have larger aggressive higher risk portfolios.One in Aussie One in NZ.
This year the higher risk portfolios have been outstanding.Aussie ACF 60 cents to 95 cents,XRF 80 cents to $1.20 and ATP 3 cents to 9 cents,with an announcement due on Tuesday.
In NZ GEN has gone from 5 cents to 8 cents,while my 2cc have gone from 35 cents to 79 cents.Wife and I have substantial holdings in 2CC.

[alokdhir]

HGH are part of our core dividend portfolios.
Having a solid dividend income allows me to have larger aggressive higher risk portfolios.One in Aussie One in NZ.
This year the higher risk portfolios have been outstanding.Aussie ACF 60 cents to 95 cents,XRF 80 cents to $1.20 and ATP 3 cents to 9 cents,with an announcement due on Tuesday.
In NZ GEN has gone from 5 cents to 8 cents,while my 2cc have gone from 35 cents to 79 cents.Wife and I have substantial holdings in 2CC.

Good on u mate ...U are doing well as always . My advise or thoughts were not for Gurus like u but for followers like me ...that we need to switch too with leaders ...like Mr B / W69 left HGH long time back stating it will be wasting capital by doing nothing for long ...can utilise that capital better else where ...which they did and reaped rewards too .

[alokdhir]

TRA opening price estimates ....Mine is $ 4.75 !!

[Snow Leopard]

HGH are part of our core dividend portfolios.
Having a solid dividend income allows me to have larger aggressive higher risk portfolios.One in Aussie One in NZ.
This year the higher risk portfolios have been outstanding.Aussie ACF 60 cents to 95 cents,XRF 80 cents to $1.20 and ATP 3 cents to 9 cents,with an announcement due on Tuesday.
In NZ GEN has gone from 5 cents to 8 cents,while my 2cc have gone from 35 cents to 79 cents.Wife and I have substantial holdings in 2CC.

HGH & TRA are the only NZ shares I still own!

[Rawz]

HGH & TRA are the only NZ shares I still own!

Do you go more Aussie or US stocks? or everything n anything

I only own NZ/Aus. Sticking with the countries I feel i know well enough to not completely stuff it up

[Snow Leopard]

Do you go more Aussie or US stocks? or everything n anything

I only own NZ/Aus. Sticking with the countries I feel i know well enough to not completely stuff it up

Currently my interest is in Australia, Singapore & London stock exchanges and I have 15 holdings across them (plus the NZ 2).

Most of my investment money is currently in Term Deposits! but the balance between TDs & equities is at the most extreme for a long time and I hope it swings back soon.


Disc: Arrived in Zagreb, Croatia (New country!) today

[bull....]

be interesting how the price moves up till dec 15th

[Sideshow Bob]

TRA opening price estimates ....Mine is $ 4.75 !!

Nice little step up today....$4.80 :t_up:

[Rawz]

trading on a backwards P.E of 12. No reason to sell at such a cheap earnings multiple. Maybe 15+ one could consider.. but even then probably not worth it and rather just hold for the dividend and growth

[alokdhir]

trading on a backwards P.E of 12. No reason to sell at such a cheap earnings multiple. Maybe 15+ one could consider.. but even then probably not worth it and rather just hold for the dividend and growth

W69 and maybe MR B expecting $ 5.50 ...at that price they will surely pare their holdings ...I reckon

[Rawz]

W69 and maybe MR B expecting $ 5.50 ...at that price they will surely pare their holdings ...I reckon

So thats about 14.5 backwards looking P.E. Seems fair

[winner69]

So thats about 14.5 backwards looking P.E. Seems fair

If you think that’s fair mate just raised my expectation of price in a few weeks to 6 bucks

[Rawz]

If you think that’s fair mate just raised my expectation of price in a few weeks to 6 bucks

alokdhir said you would part with your precious TRA shares at that price. I thought only a fair price. Wouldnt sell at that.

[pierre]

If you think that’s fair mate just raised my expectation of price in a few weeks to 6 bucks

TRA is a bit slow out of the gate today Winner - especially when compared with GTK.
Maybe more anticipation was already bulit into the TRA price?

[winner69]

TRA is a bit slow out of the gate today Winner - especially when compared with GTK.
Maybe more anticipation was already bulit into the TRA price?

Yep GTK really on fire …..and the run up last week was strong as well eh

GTK seems far more more exciting …..considering it’s heading 10 bucks to gave management their $90m bonus

[winner69]

Seems low volume today but is above daily average so can't be too bad

Need Muse to keep us up to date as too how many need to be bought by fundies

[ronaldson]

Will the 200k transacting at $4.82 set the benchmark now?

[alokdhir]

Seems low volume today but is above daily average so can't be too bad

Need Muse to keep us up to date as too how many need to be bought by fundies

Last I heard was 2.2 Mil needed ....GTK was much hotter ...but we will warm up slowly ....real big price action maybe next week ...starting Monday as per past other inclusions which got 10 trading days ...unlike HLG which got only 5 to get all !!!

[alokdhir]

Day 1 ...377K traded VW $ 4.822 !!

[winner69]

Market Close -

Matt Goodson, managing director of Salt Funds Management, said the aggressive trading in Gentrack and Turners was “a bit surprising given they were expected to join the top 50. Overall, it was a mixed market.”

[alokdhir]

Either W69 or Mr B is selling whole heartedly ....:p

[bull....]

Last I heard was 2.2 Mil needed ....GTK was much hotter ...but we will warm up slowly ....real big price action maybe next week ...starting Monday as per past other inclusions which got 10 trading days ...unlike HLG which got only 5 to get all !!!

so since rumour of inclusion after yesterday 355k more than 2mil have already traded ? but like you say take some of it out for mum and dad buying. cant be that many left to buy on market ? already warehoused by fund for sale on 15 th ?

[see weed]

Either W69 or Mr B is selling whole heartedly ....:p
As I have just mentioned on the other site, Stock Talk, they probably all racing back to HLG to grab the double in HLG race.:D

[Rawz]

Either W69 or Mr B is selling whole heartedly ....:p

its just insto's shaking the tree accumulating shares.

Lol jks i have no idea

[alokdhir]

so since rumour of inclusion after yesterday 355k more than 2mil have already traded ? but like you say take some of it out for mum and dad buying. cant be that many left to buy on market ? already warehoused by fund for sale on 15 th ?

We will talk about that next week ...starting Monday ...dont worry I will not forget to remind u .

Also the shares even if bought by warehousers ...need be transferred to funds account on exchange at their already negotiated price thus market price have to that ...even for a moment that transfer takes place ...U will see above million volume that day ...lets wait and watch mate ...still 8 trading days they have

[alokdhir]

Day 2 ....49K traded @ VW $ 4.746 !!!

[winner69]

We will talk about that next week ...starting Monday ...dont worry I will not forget to remind u .

Also the shares even if bought by warehousers ...need be transferred to funds account on exchange at their already negotiated price thus market price have to that ...even for a moment that transfer takes place ...U will see above million volume that day ...lets wait and watch mate ...still 8 trading days they have

So not many of those millions on last day are real sales...just ‘transfers’ ….they might not need to buy mine after all lol

[alokdhir]

So not many of those millions on last day are real sales...just ‘transfers’ ….they might not need to buy mine after all lol

That was for Bulls consumption as he is the one saying already bought ...

But they will still need to bring the price to that level ...which they have negotiated with funds ...in doing so they will need buy yours on the way up ...lol

[ronaldson]

Did anyone notice the NZ Herald article this afternoon regarding Costco preparing to launch car sales in NZ?

Autoconnect will be a website where Costco members can view new and used discounted cars and motorbikes for sale. This could undercut dealers and existing online trading. Apparently also in Queensland already, and starting up in other Australian states.

I wonder if Turners saw this coming? And imagine if a $60 membership fee could let you access a new vehicle at less than current dealerships are pricing. Petrol and diesel are already retailed at significant mark down to my local service stations and they have a tyre shop too as part of their Westgate premises.

[RTM]

Did anyone notice the NZ Herald article this afternoon regarding Costco preparing to launch car sales in NZ?

Autoconnect will be a website where Costco members can view new and used discounted cars and motorbikes for sale. This could undercut dealers and existing online trading. Apparently also in Queensland already, and starting up in other Australian states.

I wonder if Turners saw this coming? And imagine if a $60 membership fee could let you access a new vehicle at less than current dealerships are pricing. Petrol and diesel are already retailed at significant mark down to my local service stations and they have a tyre shop too as part of their Westgate premises.

No, I missed that.Thanks.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/costco-prepares-to-launch-car-sales-in-nz/BVM4FGSRYZBJXKKME6YDXHPG7Y/

[ronaldson]

Thanks RTM. I lack the skills to post a link as you did, which is more helpful and enlightening for forum readers.

A bit out of left field for both TRA and 2CC I would have thought. Will be interesting to see how it is, and when it comes about.

[Rawz]

There is a FB page dedicated to Costco NZ (like a fan page. not run by the company) and people are constantly saying prices are avg. Paknsav is cheaper.. the only good thing is you can buy different international products and buy in bulk. Im not totally surprised by this as paknsav have far better buying power in NZ until Costco can scale up

Anyways back to the cars. Not a huge risk right now but one to watch is my opinion

[mike2020]

It sounds very similar to Trade Me rather than turners or 2CC. Unless they open a lot. I buy second hand cars through turners but new I have enjoyed dealer support. I had a Santa Fe loose the front and rear dif past warranty and they covered it. Have had issues with other vehicles I bought new and never a drama but I have noticed even when you take it to a different dealership they seem a little less welcoming.

[bull....]

We will talk about that next week ...starting Monday ...dont worry I will not forget to remind u .

Also the shares even if bought by warehousers ...need be transferred to funds account on exchange at their already negotiated price thus market price have to that ...even for a moment that transfer takes place ...U will see above million volume that day ...lets wait and watch mate ...still 8 trading days they have

gentrack and turners no buyers now both popped before announcement. probably both overvalued at these prices eh

[alokdhir]

gentrack and turners no buyers now both popped before announcement. probably both overvalued at these prices eh

This week belongs to u mate ...Mine will be next week ...hopefully :ohmy:

[ronaldson]

This week belongs to u mate ...Mine will be next week ...hopefully :ohmy:

It looks all over to me, but ERD is powering on.

[alokdhir]

It looks all over to me, but ERD is powering on.

I dont think so ...till a few huge volumes days not happen ...it cant be over ...me still very positive

[alokdhir]

Day 3.... 58K @ VW $ 4.638 ..

[winner69]

Now for the NZX20 ha ha

How Turners used three simple goals to reach the NZX50

https://businessdesk.co.nz/article/markets/how-turners-used-three-simple-goals-to-reach-the-nzx50
Prob paywalled

[alokdhir]

I can see retail is panicking at Index inclusion POP not going as per their expectations ...so far operators / accumulators are playing them perfectly .

Now retail is falling over each other to get out ...maybe too well known inclusion thus too many prepared so easy to panic few thus all ...lol

FB has spot valuation of $ 4.50 ...not too much away from where we are ...6 cents divvy next month ....regular buying interest from ETF like NZG / FNZ / MDZ / DIV as they are part of low cost KiwiSaver scheme of Smart shares ...especially NZG which tracks NZX50

At current prices I dont see any advantage in selling to funds

[Rawz]

Think most retail investors dont really care for the pop. Most have bought in well below current prices and are happy to hold for the solid dividend and growth that we will no doubt see over the coming 5-10 years

Maybe just a handful posters from here and over there bought up too much and are trimming.

[Sideshow Bob]

Think most retail investors dont really care for the pop. Most have bought in well below current prices and are happy to hold for the solid dividend and growth that we will no doubt see over the coming 5-10 years

Maybe just a handful posters from here and over there bought up too much and are trimming.

Maybe a few are locking in gains, but any sellers have to put there money somewhere else......TRA remains one of the better investments on the NZX I can see for the moment.

[alokdhir]

Day 4 ....20K @ VW $ 4.634 ....lowest vol so far ...seems desperation to sell is getting over ....$ 4.60 holding :t_up:

[alokdhir]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/NZXO/422832/408802.pdf

If we read this announcement ...in the end they say some constituent index data will be provided after today close ...regarding equal weighted etc ....maybe the reason why Index funds start their process from Day 6 onwards after getting this data ??? Not sure what it means ....

[alokdhir]

Day 5 .....56K @VW $ 4.628 ....fun will start soon ...get ready !!!

[Baa_Baa]

Day 5 .....56K @VW $ 4.628 ....fun will start soon ...get ready !!!

Interesting, so have you bought into the momentum traders strategy and will be trying to figure out when to exit, or do you not care about the capital price movements and plan to hold for the long term dividends?

We haven't seen you so excited about a SP appreciating stock before, this is quite contrary to your investment philosophy.

[alokdhir]

Interesting, so have you bought into the momentum traders strategy and will be trying to figure out when to exit, or do you not care about the capital price movements and plan to hold for the long term dividends?

We haven't seen you so excited about a SP appreciating stock before, this is quite contrary to your investment philosophy.

If u had the courtesy of reading all my posts on this thread then U wud have known that I am trying to learn how and what of Index inclusion dynamics of a small cap ...as this is my first time I have ventured into a small cap though a good one ...whether I stay in it for long term or not is entirely my prerogative ...like I had mentioned in my reply to a direct question on the subject . I am just thinking aloud here and learning ...as this index inclusion is not going as per plan as per many ....but my thinking is that it will go as per plan starting next week . So trying to figure out how operators can play on small investor's lack of patience or holding power ...so much to learn ...like on other channel champion and seasoned player of inclusions Mr B also thinks action will hot up next week . I am looking forward to it ...not that I am so worried about its SP but to learn and validate my theories ....hopefully that shud satisfy your enquiry !!

PS : Also I had informed all via my post reply to W69 that I will be participating in the fun of TRA index inclusion fully ...thats what I am doing ...having fun with my mates

[alokdhir]

If We agree with FB's index research calculations then around 2+ Mil shares shud be traded next week ...Current week was just 577 K ....4 times volumes expected ...will that be just sideways volume or upwards or downwards that only time will tell but likelihood is SP appreciating .

Mr B thinks it will close well on index rebalancing day with usual 3rd Friday of 3rd month volumes ...his view is that will be the top .

I reckon top will be made sooner but volumes will peak on Friday ...Wednesday is my pick for the top ...its just an estimate after studying last few inclusions of HLG / VSL / CHI etc ....will be watching with keen interest to update my knowledge on this subject ...which is very new for me !!!

[alokdhir]

After a Quick Look at volumes of last two inclusions ie VSL ( only mid cap ) and HLG ...following observations stand out

VSL 1st week volume on first 5 trading days after announcement was 110K and second week volume was 570K ...max being on Friday index rebalancing day

HLG got 5 days only after announcement and had total volume of around 2.2 Mil in those days ...highest being on day before inclusion .

If that pattern plays out then we will see dramatic increase in volume in this week for TRA

Also HLG needed as per Index research around 1.7 Mil but traded 2.2 in that week ...similarly TRA needs around 2.2 Mil and can trade around 3 Mil in this week

What effect it has on SP ...I wont comment ...but very very brisk trading surely on cards .

Why action hots up on second week so much more then first week may have something to do with index constituent or some other relevant data only being provided to funds after first week closing ...can anyone elaborate or clarify this query after reading the end part of the S&P index rebalancing announcement !!!

[bull....]

5k traded today , fund's are busy buying

[alokdhir]

5k traded today , fund's are busy buying

Wrote about week's volumes not hourly mate ...have patience ...Understand U are very short term trader so patience is not your forte ...:p

[percy]

www.chrislee.co.nz
This week's market news covers Turners.

[alokdhir]

Day 6 ....148K @ VW $ 4.67 ....TRA heating up ...

[alokdhir]

Day 7 ....158K @ VW $ 4.75 ...after all day long stand off ...still many retail are loosing patience and giving them easily .....

Volume need pick up ahead if expected numbers have to be traded before Friday close ...but SP is appreciating slowly ...may get a big burst soon !!!

PS : 100K crossover happened after close @ closing price !!

[ronaldson]

Not much fizz today, with 20k left on the table at the close at $4.80.

Seems like no urgency on the part of buyers so may have topped out?

[alokdhir]

Day 8 ....216K @ VW $ 4.778 ...Going well towards big Friday match session ....SP going up every day ...VW going up every day :t_up:

PS : Till we get more then million vol days it cant top out easy ...imho !!

[Muse]

Day 8 ....216K @ VW $ 4.778 ...Going well towards big Friday match session ....SP going up every day ...VW going up every day :t_up:

PS : Till we get more then million vol days it cant top out easy ...imho !!

Yes getting close and going to be an interesting one to put into my little database of all the NZX50 inclusions over the last several years (capturing price trends before the inclusion and after, together with how liquidity played a role in it). Will be interesting to see how it compares to the recent HLG experience. I see the later had an intra day peak at $6.94 on 8th of May, wound up 2 days later closing on $6.85 at the closing match the final day. It'll also be interesting to see how Turners' comparatively better liquidity (than HLG) feeds into the price dynamics. The required shares for inclusion were both roughly 2.5% of total shares, but Turners average daily volume in the 250 trading day sessions prior to the announcement, as a percentage of total shares, was about 1.3x that of HLGs. Likewise, it has a 'looser' / more available register. By that I mean while it has terrible liquidity and underrepresented institutional ownership it still has a lot more available large blocks and small insto holdings that are available to wrapped up into selling blocks, rather than HLG which had a true mum and pop share register.

I've a database of all the NZX50 inclusions and I started calling them index pops, which seems to have caught on. But I named it that because it illustrates both sides of the inclusion; the enthusiasm and price run leading to the inclusion, and more often than not level of reversion thereafter. Sort of like blowing up a balloon fast, and letting the air out fast or popping it. People tend to focus on the first, more fun, phase.

In my post #8122 on this thread I speculated as to how the ETFs go about purchasing their shares (and by instos we are really only talking about the Smartshares NZX50 ETF), which is just speculation, I don't know first hand how they go about doing it. I've talked to a friend who works overseas for Dimensional Fund Advisors and he said Dimensional purchase all their shares for index inclusion in the final closing match. I have a call with someone at Smartshares on how it works in NZ so will be interesting to learn more about it over here.

But in my post #8716 on the HLG thread I talked to the overhang/hangover factor in index pops. Clearly a lot of the volume in the many months, and weeks, ahead of an inclusion are speculative purchases looking to bag a quick gain. And often with high expectations and aren't necessarily committed long term owners. The excess shares traded above what is actually required for the inclusion, and the level of the price gain relative to the expected pop I reckon has a big impact on the the short and medium term price dynamics post inclusion. Or particularly when retail buy shares thinking the ETFs will be forced to buy from them when often in reality the ETFs are already sorted in advance. I reckon HLG had a 1.2m share overhang post inclusion (worth recalling for instance 1.74m shares traded on the final day, 260k more than the 1.482m shares required for the inclusion) which would have played a role in its steep reversal. I reckon a lot of people purchased with spec intent after hearing & thinking it was going to the moon and when it didn't they started selling fairly aggressively to avoid the downslope of the reversal.

Not saying that will happen here and but I think the market psychology of how these work is interesting and each one a good learning experience (and perhaps that is playing a role here so far too). From my core, dividend holding perspective, I wouldn't care too much if the price didn't pop as I place my value on price stability and predictable appreciation over the volatility. But of course, there is always a price. Only a few more sleeps.

ps will share some of my index stuff after the inclusion.

[alokdhir]

Yes getting close and going to be an interesting one to put into my little database of all the NZX50 inclusions over the last several years (capturing price trends before the inclusion and after, together with how liquidity played a role in it). Will be interesting to see how it compares to the recent HLG experience. I see the later had an intra day peak at $6.94 on 8th of May, wound up 2 days later closing on $6.85 at the closing match the final day. It'll also be interesting to see how Turners' comparatively better liquidity (than HLG) feeds into the price dynamics. The required shares for inclusion were both roughly 2.5% of total shares, but Turners average daily volume in the 250 trading day sessions prior to the announcement, as a percentage of total shares, was about 1.3x that of HLGs. Likewise, it has a 'looser' / more available register. By that I mean while it has terrible liquidity and underrepresented institutional ownership it still has a lot more available large blocks and small insto holdings that are available to wrapped up into selling blocks, rather than HLG which had a true mum and pop share register.

I've a database of all the NZX50 inclusions and I started calling them index pops, which seems to have caught on. But I named it that because it illustrates both sides of the inclusion; the enthusiasm and price run leading to the inclusion, and more often than not level of reversion thereafter. Sort of like blowing up a balloon fast, and letting the air out fast or popping it. People tend to focus on the first, more fun, phase.

In my post #8122 on this thread I speculated as to how the ETFs go about purchasing their shares (and by instos we are really only talking about the Smartshares NZX50 ETF), which is just speculation, I don't know first hand how they go about doing it. I've talked to a friend who works overseas for Dimensional Fund Advisors and he said Dimensional purchase all their shares for index inclusion in the final closing match. I have a call with someone at Smartshares on how it works in NZ so will be interesting to learn more about it over here.

But in my post #8716 on the HLG thread I talked to the overhang/hangover factor in index pops. Clearly a lot of the volume in the many months, and weeks, ahead of an inclusion are speculative purchases looking to bag a quick gain. And often with high expectations and aren't necessarily committed long term owners. The excess shares traded above what is actually required for the inclusion, and the level of the price gain relative to the expected pop I reckon has a big impact on the the short and medium term price dynamics post inclusion. Or particularly when retail buy shares thinking the ETFs will be forced to buy from them when often in reality the ETFs are already sorted in advance. I reckon HLG had a 1.2m share overhang post inclusion (worth recalling for instance 1.74m shares traded on the final day, 260k more than the 1.482m shares required for the inclusion) which would have played a role in its steep reversal. I reckon a lot of people purchased with spec intent after hearing & thinking it was going to the moon and when it didn't they started selling fairly aggressively to avoid the downslope of the reversal.

Not saying that will happen here and but I think the market psychology of how these work is interesting and each one a good learning experience (and perhaps that is playing a role here so far too). From my core, dividend holding perspective, I wouldn't care too much if the price didn't pop as I place my value on price stability and predictable appreciation over the volatility. But of course, there is always a price. Only a few more sleeps.

ps will share some of my index stuff after the inclusion.

Thanks Muse for your very informative post ...tried to give u positive feedback but system refused saying need spread it first !!!

HLG vs TRA similarity are few like retail stocks ie retail owned , low liquidity but most important difference imo is both at different cycles at inclusion time ...HLG was staring at bad times ...which all knew but ignored but now reality has taken over SP while TRA is doing great guns business cycle wise ...its eps is in uptrend thus its SP is well supported . Forbar had underperform rating for HLG during inclusion if I recall right while same FB has outperform for TRA with spot valuation of $ 4.48 ...it shud make a difference to the outcome too on this inclusion POP ...as HLG had very willing sellers while TRA will have reluctant sellers but then not all think too much ahead ..lol IMO if we have a POP in next two days of say $ 5 plus then it wont fall steeply afterwards ....if we dont have a POP and final match price is say $ 4.80 or less then fall afterwards will be very shallow and short-lived ....it has solid support at $ 4.60 after its results albeit index inclusion ahead must have played a role in keeping that support intact ...still I think it should / would be well supported around $ 4.30 for short term bottom after index inclusion done . At present its in no man's land for me ...not attractive enough to sell neither a bargain to buy ...at $ 4.30 is an attractive buy and above $ 5 its a reluctant sell

PS : All index funds will be buying in final match session of last day so as to do inclusions / rebalancing at closing price of the day to avoid index tracking errors

[alokdhir]

Excited about Day 9 ...no index funds buy before like many think ...they cant ...they need buy on closing price of last day to avoid index tracking error ...so TRA will be bought around 2.2 Mil on Friday match session .
But this info many traders / operators etc know ...so they accumulate to cater for that big demand on Friday match ...they supply the stock ...match price comes seeing how high is closing price coming out and how many sellers want to exit .
Even if traders / operators started accumulating in last 30 days which is a lot plus a punt on inclusion till its officially announced thus was risky ....only after official announcement it was a certainty of exit route on last Friday match ...30 days VW shud be about $ 4.40 maybe ....after announcements ie last 9 days shud be about $ 4.70 ...they will expect some profit too ...so add 5% for effort minimum comes to $ 4.95 ...then demand supply mismatch keeping in view its SP / EPS is in super uptrend for actual business reasons and not POP reasons etc ...

Overall positive for today and tomorrow ....today shud set the tone for tomorrow's massive match session !!!

[Rawz]

Good luck to those on the pop trade thingie. Will be happy to watch from the sidelines

[alokdhir]

Good luck to those on the pop trade thingie. Will be happy to watch from the sidelines

Thanks for Good luck though as explained many times before that I am not on POP trade thingie but trying to make my crystal ball better !!

Also I as sure many professing to be just watching will be very willing participants when SP pops to say $ 5.22 ...lol :p

[Rawz]

Thanks for Good luck though as explained many times before that I am not on POP trade thingie but trying to make my crystal ball better !!

Also I as sure many professing to be just watching will be very willing participants when SP pops to say $ 5.22 ...lol :p

Lol yes okay $5.22 even I would consider. BUy some more TWR or BRW maybe :cool:

I cant see it going over 5 bucks

[alokdhir]

Lol yes okay $5.22 even I would consider. BUy some more TWR or BRW maybe :cool:

I cant see it going over 5 bucks

Yes that seems the impression at the moment ...though I am also not in the sell camp even at $ 4.85 ....it surely will be more next year

But imo its Friday match will be very interesting and big POP can happen as total trading so far after announcement is just over a Mil @ $ 4.75 ...requirement of Friday is 2.2 Mil ...still some shortfall to accommodate ...thus need entice people like US

[bull....]

if follow hlg the high already been first day and 4.80 be the lower high this week and then settle at lower price after end of week. be interesting

[JSwan]

Is it POOPING yet? 😂

[alokdhir]

Day 9 ....244K @ VW $ 4.789 ...

Tmrw shud see more then 2 mil to total weeks 3 mil ...Bull please note !!!

[alokdhir]

5k traded today , fund's are busy buying

Hopefully now U feeling better ...after tmrw maybe more enlightened :p

[ronaldson]

Day 9 ....244K @ VW $ 4.789 ...

Tmrw shud see more then 2 mil to total weeks 3 mil ...Bull please note !!!

A number of shares left on the table again at the close at $4.80 and below not a good sign in my opinion.

Do your calculations take account of the fact that TRA was in the small cap index previously and is transferred out from that index contemporaneously, so wouldn't shares simply be swapped (at market) from one index fund to the other? And vice versa for PEB and Synlait? So actual pressure to acquire on-market could be less?

[Baa_Baa]

Day 9 ....244K @ VW $ 4.789 ...

Tmrw shud see more then 2 mil to total weeks 3 mil ...Bull please note !!!

Where are the 2 mil shares coming from when there are only about 140 k (~$677k) on the Ask and they're all under $4.92?

[alokdhir]

Where are the 2 mil shares coming from when there are only about 140 k (~$677k) on the Ask and they're all under $4.92?

I will let the tmrw's closing answer that for u mate ...also I am not forecasting any SP here ...just volume as can be clear from my post

All index funds buy their requirements in the final match session of last day so that to get stock at closing price of index balancing day ...please watch the orders flooding from 4.45 pm ...then of course will be supplies ...but total vol will be over 2 Mil for tmrw ...and that was only I mentioned ...no price forecasting mate

[bulltrap]

Where are the 2 mil shares coming from when there are only about 140 k (~$677k) on the Ask and they're all under $4.92?

Everyone's invited to the party tomorrow.

Doors open 10am, but expect the well-heeled crowd to make a quick showing for the fireworks at 4:45pm, before hitting the town.

[bull....]

Day 9 ....244K @ VW $ 4.789 ...

Tmrw shud see more then 2 mil to total weeks 3 mil ...Bull please note !!!

yes we will see. i told you my thinking that fund warehouse it before announcement and cross it tomorrow. they will negiotiate price that alll.

[alokdhir]

yes we will see. i told you my thinking that fund warehouse it before announcement and cross it tomorrow. they will negiotiate price that alll.

U r a very lucky person mate !!! :p

[alokdhir]

Lets do a Poll of TRA closing price today ....

My pick is $ 4.75 ...

[0verdose]

Lets do a Poll of TRA closing price today ....

My pick is $ 4.75 ...

$5.00 hopefully

[ronaldson]

Lets do a Poll of TRA closing price today ....

My pick is $ 4.75 ...

My pick also.

[ronaldson]

Then on Monday we can have the next poll, which can be what will the closing price be on Friday 22 December.

That will be equally interesting in my view.

[Rawz]

I pick $4.92

[Ricky-bobby]

A panic sell $4.64… just mix it up!

[alokdhir]

I pick $4.92

Closest one will get positive feedback from all participants ...that shud the prize . What say u ??

[Rawz]

Closest one will get positive feedback from all participants ...that shud the prize . What say u ??

sounds good. hopefully i can catch up to you. its my main driver for posting :p

[alokdhir]

sounds good. hopefully i can catch up to you. its my main driver for posting :p

U r so motivated ...lol U will get mine surely even if u not win ...though system keeps rejecting all my positive feedbacks ...says need spread it around !!!!

[alokdhir]

We need more participants please ...Where are Bull / W69 and all others ...U have time till 4.45 PM only ...

[Rawz]

We need more participants please ...Where are Bull / W69 and all others ...U have time till 4.45 PM only ...

Bull, W69 and Beagle are trying to get their broker on the line to dump their huge holdings but the phone line has been engaged all morning :scared:

[CD_CHCH]

$4.83 at close - based on picking a random number out of the air...

[alokdhir]

Bull, W69 and Beagle are trying to get their broker on the line to dump their huge holdings but the phone line has been engaged all morning :scared:

All those are too smart to be in trouble ...also they know anything and any much can be sold today in final match when more then 2 mil share orders will come !!!

[bull....]

just back at the desk. anyway im picking 4.80 . im out by the way good luck for others

[kiwical]

I'm going low as well. Purely because anything I take an interest in seems to tank the next day.

$4.65

[ronaldson]

Has anyone considered that members of the TRA Board/management might themselves take the opportunity to reduce their personal/related party holdings to diversify their investment exposure?

Since TRA reported recently they would be within a tradeable window to do so. A sensible time to act if motivated to do so in my opinion, and they may have been approached directly?

[sb9]

I think the big boys got their crossings sorted at predetermined agreed price, which could be around that 4.75 mark. Don’t expect too many fireworks at closing match imo.

[alokdhir]

I think the big boys got their crossings sorted at predetermined agreed price, which could be around that 4.75 mark. Don’t expect too many fireworks at closing match imo.

Where ever is that predetermined crossing ...market price will have to be that at close ...so one has his order at $ 4.74 then he gets sold and gets $ 4.75 final closing match ...so if no price action fireworks at match then at least volume action fireworks is sure to happen ...funds will get their shares at today's closing price as thats their requirement to buy at closing price of last day .

[winner69]

I think it’s all going to be big anti-climax

Action has happened …..just the paper shuffling to happen

[Greekwatchdog]

I think it’s all going to be big anti-climax

Action has happened …..just the paper shuffling to happen

I think you are going to be correct. Fun watching and reading various threads and the bouts of optimism

[Ricky-bobby]

Something is happening!!

[Greekwatchdog]

Something is happening!!

waiting, come on for all those holders

[Ricky-bobby]

Looks like $4.77…

[bulltrap]

Something is happening!!

But what? I've got lousy back-row seats on Jarden Direct, and I can't even see the match point in sell depth.

[0verdose]

Last
Change
Buy
Sell
Open
High
Low
VWAP
Volume
Turnover



$4.770
https://online.asb.co.nz/ost/Content/Style/Images/arrow-down-red_transparent.png1* 0.2%
$5.100
$4.290
$4.780
$4.780
$4.710
$4.750
68,976
$327,667







Buyers

Buy Quantity

Prices



3
100,924
$5.100


2
723,506
$4.900


1
1,297
$4.860


2
788,985
$4.800


1
2,512
$4.790


1
300,000
$4.730


1
63
$4.700


1
9,319
$4.650


1
3,230
$4.640


3
87,000
$4.600


16
2,016,836






Prices

Sell Quantity

Sellers



$4.290
9,582
1


$4.300
80,000
1


$4.310
50,000
1


$4.320
50,000
1


$4.330
50,000
1


$4.340
4,002
1


$4.350
50,000
1


$4.360
50,000
1


$4.370
25,000
1


$4.400
25,000
1



393,584
10

[Ricky-bobby]

Now $4.73…

[Baa_Baa]

I think it’s all going to be big anti-climax

Action has happened …..just the paper shuffling to happen

..... :eek2: ..... have another look!