TRA - Turners Automotive Group [previously TNR - Turners Limited]

[blackcap]

Haha! I got something like 15% of the max amount.
I'm looking forward to getting my refund, so I can put the cash to work.

Got 2/3 of what I applied for so not too upset. Still could have offered more under the SPP or just done a rights issue to begin with.

[JayRiggs]

Page 3 of the initial offer doc says "your application will be scaled on aproportionate basis with regard to the size of your application", however page 12 says "on a proportionate basis by reference to the size of existing shareholdings and noteholdings held at the time of allotments". Todays announcement conforms with the latter, however I thought it was based off the former?

Is it just me or are these different meanings:
1) Scaling based on application amount = two different holds whom apply for 15k each both get the same amount after scaling
2) Scaling based on existing holding amount = two different holders whom apply for 15k each get proportional amounts according to their holdings

Also this seems a bit unfair for the smaller holders, on top of already lacking funds to get to the 15k mark.

Yeah I noticed that too. Maybe the scaling is based off the size of your holdings and application amount at the same time.

[BlackPeter]

Got 2/3 of what I applied for so not too upset. Still could have offered more under the SPP or just done a rights issue to begin with.

40% of my application for me. You had probably a larger holding ...

Agree with Percy - the process sucks and they could have done all shareholders a big favour by accepting all shareholder funds and reducing the institutional CR respectively. Could have saved as well the underwriters fee. This was our money they burned.

Can't help - this company might have a good growth strategy in a promising industry, but it does not feel that the interests of the retail shareholders are of particular importance for our board.

[GTM 3442]

SPP suck

Still, at least the refund can go into the PFI rights issue. . . :(

[IAK]

What a waste of time, oh well least I didn't waste it on Pushpay or Atm lol.

[JayRiggs]

40% of my application for me. You had probably a larger holding ...

Agree with Percy - the process sucks and they could have done all shareholders a big favour by accepting all shareholder funds and reducing the institutional CR respectively. Could have saved as well the underwriters fee. This was our money they burned.

Can't help - this company might have a good growth strategy in a promising industry, but it does not feel that the interests of the retail shareholders are of particular importance for our board.

It's quite apparent $5 million was far too small for the SPP. They'd be well aware of the number of retail shareholders and the size of their shareholdings before the SPP.... you'd think they knew this would at least be oversubscribed by a fair amount!

[JayRiggs]

On a brighter note, NZ car sales are increasing.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11931730

[Beagle]

Page 3 of the initial offer doc says "your application will be scaled on aproportionate basis with regard to the size of your application", however page 12 says "on a proportionate basis by reference to the size of existing shareholdings and noteholdings held at the time of allotments". Todays announcement conforms with the latter, however I thought it was based off the former?

Is it just me or are these different meanings:
1) Scaling based on application amount = two different holders whom apply for 15k each both get the same amount after scaling
2) Scaling based on existing holding amount = two different holders whom apply for 15k each get proportional amounts according to their holdings

Also this seems a bit unfair for the smaller holders, on top of already lacking funds to get to the 15k mark.

Its not just you. The wording in the offer doc's could have been interpreted two completely different ways. Fair to say the offer document was ambiguous and poorly written.
Comes across as a pretty amateur effort really...the whole capital raise from start to finish. One would hope their vehicle sales and finance application process's are more professional.

[GTM 3442]

Is didly squat more or less than sweet **** all?

It's about two thirds of five eighths - allowing for a little scaling

[winner69]

It's about two thirds of five eighths - allowing for a little scaling

So just under half

[percy]

I don't know how many the wife received, as she held more than me on the record date, but I received 4,570 shares or $13,801.40 worth at $3.02,or just over 90% of what I applied for.A bit of a nice surprise.

[JeremyALD]

I don't know how many the wife received, as she held more than me on the record date, but I received 4,570 shares or $13,801.40 worth at $3.02,or just over 90% of what I applied for.A bit of a nice surprise.

I got 300 shares. What a bloody waste of my time and money!!!!

[percy]

I got 300 shares. What a bloody waste of my time and money!!!!

Welcome to the rotten world of SPPs.
Hopefully NZ Shareholders Assn will keep acting in all investors' interest, and get companies to have the much fairer rights issues, when they want to raise more capital.
The old arguement the company did not have time, just shows lack of planning.
It is not just TRA,but all companies who do SPPs.

[Jaa]

Welcome to the rotten world of SPPs.
Hopefully NZ Shareholders Assn will keep acting in all investors' interest, and get companies to have the much fairer rights issues, when they want to raise more capital.
The old arguement the company did not have time, just shows lack of planning.
It is not just TRA,but all companies who do SPPs.

Agree Percy, just slack on behalf of the board to not run an accelerated renounceable rights issue.

Hope someone has a go at them at the AGM.

[winner69]

I don't know how many the wife received, as she held more than me on the record date, but I received 4,570 shares or $13,801.40 worth at $3.02,or just over 90% of what I applied for.A bit of a nice surprise.

Wasn't so rotten after all eh - you seem to have got more than your 'fair share' and the wife probably will get a greater share

Well done - the real supporters need to well rewarded

[Under Surveillance]

I don't know how many the wife received, as she held more than me on the record date, but I received 4,570 shares or $13,801.40 worth at $3.02,or just over 90% of what I applied for.A bit of a nice surprise.
Based on my getting 1 share for every 7.0668 shares I had at the record date I reckon you must have held 32.3K as of the record date (and JeremyALD 2.1K).

[percy]

Based on my getting 1 share for every 7.0668 shares I had at the record date I reckon you must have held 32.3K as of the record date (and JeremyALD 2.1K).

Exactly right,32.3K.
The wife had 34.3k so hopefully she will receive 4853.
I had fun getting into my a/c at computer share,and dare not try to get into her's.!

[JeremyALD]

Based on my getting 1 share for every 7.0668 shares I had at the record date I reckon you must have held 32.3K as of the record date (and JeremyALD 2.1K).

Just double checked I actually got 467 extra shares and had 3300 before SPP. Still my point stands that this was a complete waste of my money that I could of put somewhere else or bought more Turners at $3.18. I wouldn't of gone into the SPP at all if I knew this was the likely outcome.

I participated in the ARV rights issue for $2k worth of shares which isn't much but at least that expectation was set from the beginning and didn't mean I had to chase getting $15k only for 90% to be returned in a few weeks.

Very disappointing. Also $5 million in the SPP was a laughable low amount with the size of the share register base.

[McGinty]

Based on my getting 1 share for every 7.0668 shares I had at the record date I reckon you must have held 32.3K as of the record date (and JeremyALD 2.1K).

Almost correct, but that doesn't ring true with my allocation.

In my case I received 1 share for every 7.0668 held currently and not at record date. Sold some of my holding last week and didn't receive any SPP shares based on my holding at record date!

I have a sour taste in my mouth and feel a vent tomorrow to either Computershare or Turners is on the cards as this was not explained clearly in the offer document.

Very disappointed in the way Turners have handled this and feel that Grant Baker got of light in the AGM (with regards to the capital raising issue). In the future I'm going to have to front up to ask the real questions myself and make the directors accountable for their answers.

At least HBL increased their SPP allocation to retail investors.

[trader_jackson]

Just double checked I actually got 467 extra shares and had 3300 before SPP. Still my point stands that this was a complete waste of my money that I could of put somewhere else or bought more Turners at $3.18. I wouldn't of gone into the SPP at all if I knew this was the likely outcome.

I participated in the ARV rights issue for $2k worth of shares which isn't much but at least that expectation was set from the beginning and didn't mean I had to chase getting $15k only for 90% to be returned in a few weeks.

Very disappointing. Also $5 million in the SPP was a laughable low amount with the size of the share register base.

Agreed... the way they explained how shares would be allocated was a tad complicated (in my view) to understand... rights issues are best and SPP's "never seem to work" for shareholders.

[Not too Flash]

Don't think the explanation is correct
The presentation says
Subject to demand, scaling to be pro rata based on shareholding as at the Record Date
If 1 shareholder owns 10,000 and another owns 1,000 then the 1st shareholder will get 10 times as many if pro rata applies

To complain about scaling is a bit rich - if you were a small shareholder and there was an over subscription you were always going to get a big a small allocation and a large refund.

Why are people now surprised ?

[ScrappyO]

I wasn't fussed about adding more shares but did send the minimum amount. ($1000). Received 43 shares...Hahaha

[JayRiggs]

I was mislead to what the record date was for scaling.
On both page 25 of the SPP presentation and page 10 of the AGM presentation, it says:
"Subject to demand, scaling to be pro rata based on shareholding as at the Record Date"
*Record date being Tuesday 12th September as stated on page 6 and 14 of the SPP booklet

However on page 12 of the SPP booklet it says:
"If Turners receives applications in excess of $5 million, it will scale back all applications on a proportionate basis by reference to the size of existing shareholdings and note holdings held at the time of allotments."

So the presentations are saying the scaling is applied based on your shareholding at the record date and the SPP booklet is saying the time of allotments.
I didn't notice this discrepancy until now. I was going on what the presentations were saying. My fault for not reading through the SPP booklet more carefully. Had I noticed this earlier, I would have contacted Computershare/Turners for clarification.

As McGinty says, his SPP shares were scaled based on his shareholdings held on the day of allotment, not the stated record date.

Even though it's my responsibility to read through the SPP booklet properly, I still feel they should have informed us about this discrepancy of scaling dates between the presentations and SPP booklet, as it can mislead shareholders (as it did for me, and maybe McGinty).

[LAC]

Just checked and got and 1/3, way less than expected. 5mill was just too less for the demand - I expected some scaling but 1/3 isnt as good as expected. Oh well, will continue buying on market:)

[percy]

Any one who is upset, should ring Todd Hunter at 021722818 and let him know.

[JeremyALD]

Just checked and got and 1/3, way less than expected. 5mill was just too less for the demand - I expected some scaling but 1/3 isnt as good as expected. Oh well, will continue buying on market:)

Will be interesting to see if SP jumps today after a lot of people recieved less than they wanted

[winner69]

Just checked and got and 1/3, way less than expected. 5mill was just too less for the demand - I expected some scaling but 1/3 isnt as good as expected. Oh well, will continue buying on market:)

So you got 33% and Percy got 90%

Now you know your standing in life

[Beagle]

Its clear that larger shareholders got the lions share but what's also clear is that they have received the most punishment over the last few months as the SP has steadily declined from $3.90. The moral of the story here is this is just like going to the gymnasium. "No pain, no gain"

Where the fiasco really lies is in the issuing of $25m in a hurry to selected institutions / friendly larger shareholders / friends relatives of the directors / management ? at a deep discount of a whopping 10% to the prevailing SP and leaving shareholders out in the cold with a pathetic $5m. Did the directors really imagine this wouldn't affect the SP ?

Taking into account the confusing mixed messages in the offer documentation in terms of the methodology by which applications would be scaled I think you could pretty well sum this whole capital raise up as "Amateur "

I also note that at no point whatsoever are management or directors highlighting the fact that their forecast growth of ~ 27% is actually more like ~ 9% on an EPS basis.
Make of that what you will...

[sb9]

Any one who is upset, should ring Todd Hunter at 021722818 and let him know.

I got bugger all too along with other posters....very disappointed.

[percy]

So you got 33% and Percy got 90%

Now you know your standing in life

Of course my wife has a higher standing in life than me,she received 4,853 shares, or 97.7% of what she applied for.
I remember HBL's SPP,where we were also upset ,however it did not take the sp long to head north.I expect the same here.

[winner69]

Sure has increased liquidity on the ASX ....but may have 'introduced' some new Aussie invoestors

Hope not a waste of money ....but good for the ego though


"The listing on the ASX will provide the company with access to a larger
capital market to support its growth strategy."

[percy]

Sure has increased liquidity on the ASX ....but may have 'introduced' some new Aussie invoestors

Hope not a waste of money ....but good for the ego though


"The listing on the ASX will provide the company with access to a larger
capital market to support its growth strategy."

Gladly ego is a word that does not fit with TRA's directors or management.

[RTM]

Will be interesting to see if SP jumps today after a lot of people recieved less than they wanted

Well....the folk who missed out on what they wanted clearly don't want to pay the current price. Which at 3.18 is only about 5% plus brokerage above the SPP.
I'm hoping that the share price will increase to around $3.40 again. At that price I will unload the extra's that I got. Which are about 1/2 of Percy's. (Happy with my allocation)
Don't really want a lot more of them in my portfolio. For my liking they are a bit like Apple in that they are to reliant on one product. Used cars.
Hmmmm....now, thinking about Apple...have I got it right ?

[sb9]

Will be interesting to see if SP jumps today after a lot of people recieved less than they wanted

I think it'll move up once the refunds are processed and people got their money back, which can be used to fund more purchases.

[McGinty]

Right I've shared my thoughts with the company via email (stuck to the facts around the discrepancy of scaling reference dates), will be interested to see if what I receive back.

I would love to call Todd Hunter and vent, but as I still hold shares in this company (although not as many) I would prefer that he focusses on running the business.

Beagle, yes I picked up on the reduction in EPS growth as well and coupled with the recent DPC style (Dorchester) capital raise, my sentiment in this company has changed from my Aug post #1491. This sentiment also seems to be backed by the market at the moment.

Just another lesson for me in sticking to my TA rules, no matter how good the FA seems to be

Anyway it's time to move on with a smile

[Beagle]

Quality of new cars is another factor. Bought the Mrs the all new 10th generation Honda Civic last month, a 2017 demo for $26,500. Really after ten generations this has morphed into a medium sized car now and has almost exactly the same proportions as the previous model Honda Accord. Its been a real eye-opener experiencing the quality of that car compared to much more expensive cars we've bought in the past and to say Mrs Beagle is extremely pleased with it would be quite an understatement. In my opinion the technology, features and quality of some of the latest models make a compelling case for themselves. That said the truth is there is a VAST mass market still in the used car field for people who can only afford a circa $12-15K car and that's where Turners comes in with their one stop shop business model. I think the shares are good value but my preference continues to be to invest in the convertible bonds with this one.

Mcginty - My view has also changed since this post of a similar timeframe to the one you referenced above. I have been reducing my stake in the convertible bonds lately, let another $15,000 go this morning. I remain of the view that with the plethora of interest and deposit free deals on new cars with their new technology and greater fuel efficiency and the way that manufactures are making it dead easy to own a new one, (and there are some truly outstandingly good cars out there for very modest money such as Mrs Beagle's new one), that there's more growth in the new vehicle market and I note that Colonial motors with its outstanding 99 year history continues to trade at a meaningful PE discount to Turners. Further, Colonial Motors are now trading in their 100th year and I expect a nice juicy special dividend to commemorate their 100 year history over the coming 12 months. Disc: Reduced Turners bonds, allocated that capital to increasing my stake in Colonial motors shares. I like to see genuine professionalism in the way shareholders are treated.

[Jaa]

I have expressed my displeasure via the Turners investor enquiry form below:
http://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Enquiries.html

Below is what I sent, will let the forum know if they reply.


I am contacting the company to register my disgust with how Turners recent capital raising was run. There seems to have been no rush to raise the money.

Offering discounted shares to the big end of town while shafting your small shareholder base with a token SPP that does nothing other that tie up our money to the company's advantage is no way to build a sustainable company with a loyal shareholding base.

Can you now assure me as a shareholder and owner of this business that any future capital risings will be via renounceable rights issues which NZ Shareholders Association and many others recommend as best practice? If not, why not?

Here's some free advice:
https://www.nzshareholders.co.nz/shareholders-best-practiceDetail.cfm?bestpracticeid=23

[forest]

I have expressed my displeasure via the Turners investor enquiry form below:
http://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Enquiries.html

Below is what I sent, will let the forum know if they reply.

I fully agree with you on this point, capital raising should be carried out fairly.

[winner69]

I fully agree with you on this point, capital raising should be carried out fairly.

Seems fair when the big end of town and real committed shareholders like Percy and his wife get plenty more than smaller share holders

There's a pecking order you know.





Don forget Percy got his mitts on heaps when the big end of town were sharing out the first $25m

[sb9]

I have expressed my displeasure via the Turners investor enquiry form below:
http://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Enquiries.html

Below is what I sent, will let the forum know if they reply.

Good on ya Jaa, well done :)

[Jaa]

Seems fair when the big end of town and real committed shareholders like Percy and his wife get plenty more than smaller share holders

There's a pecking order you know.

Don forget Percy got his mitts on heaps when the big end of town were sharing out the first $25m

And then double dipped via the SPP?

Seriously, we have been debating and expressing our frustration about capital raisings for 10 years now, Boards have no excuse. If they refuse to follow best practice and treat all shareholders fairly, we will need a law change.

[blackcap]

And then double dipped via the SPP?

Seriously, we have been debating and expressing our frustration about capital raisings for 10 years now, Boards have no excuse. If they refuse to follow best practice and treat all shareholders fairly, we will need a law change.

I tend to disagree slightly. You have a vote. Use it. If you do not like it, do not invest in shares. That too is "voting". If capital markets then do not work.. the law will change. If capital markets continue to work well enough, there will be no appetite for a law change.

[BlackPeter]

I have expressed my displeasure via the Turners investor enquiry form below:
http://www.turnersautogroup.co.nz/Investor+Centre/Investor+Enquiries.html

Below is what I sent, will let the forum know if they reply.

Good idea - and good opportunity to express our frustration without keeping management away from doing their work.

I used the link to register my view as well ... let's see, whether they are listening.

[hoyinma]

Thanks Jaa for the link.
I had also used the link to express my frustration regarding the SPP.
I was totally misled by the offer document and reduced my holding to make the $15000 application.
I was given 71 shares and I guess I need to buy back my shares in a higher price (cos money is not refunded yet).
Well, I learn a lesson now and try not to be greedy next time (should have applied for $1000 instead).

[GTM 3442]

Thanks Jaa for the link.
I had also used the link to express my frustration regarding the SPP.
I was totally misled by the offer document and reduced my holding to make the $15000 application.
I was given 71 shares and I guess I need to buy back my shares in a higher price (cos money is not refunded yet).
Well, I learn a lesson now and try not to be greedy next time (should have applied for $1000 instead).

I suspect that the "reduced my holding" was taken into account in the scaling.

Although who knows? As transparent as the mythical NZ First "Board".

[JeremyALD]

Thanks Jaa for the link.
I had also used the link to express my frustration regarding the SPP.
I was totally misled by the offer document and reduced my holding to make the $15000 application.
I was given 71 shares and I guess I need to buy back my shares in a higher price (cos money is not refunded yet).
Well, I learn a lesson now and try not to be greedy next time (should have applied for $1000 instead).

71 shares?! What a joke!

I always knew I was never going to get 15k but I was hoping for at least 5k. And now I have learnt it wouldn't of made a difference to my final allocation amount if I requested and transferred significantly less than 15k.

Expressed my view as well in the link. Thanks for sharing.

[horus1]

I am making a formal complaint re the different wording on page 3 and 12 and have advised the the company via the above link . They should honour the most advantagous condition for individual shareholders as per page3 or 12. This is plainly very sloppy and they shouldn't get away with it. Where were there lawyers and banks.

[Under Surveillance]

I am making a formal complaint re the different wording on page 3 and 12 and have advised the the company via the above link . They should honour the most advantagous condition for individual shareholders as per page3 or 12. This is plainly very sloppy and they shouldn't get away with it. Where were there lawyers and banks.
Who are you making the formal complaint to? The FMA? The NZX? The SFO? The Securities Commission? The Small Claims Tribunal? Winston?

[Beagle]

https://fma.govt.nz/contact/make-a-complaint/

I agree this was very shoddily cobbled together. It would be good if they got some sort of reprimand for the most ambiguous statements in the offer document about how the methodology of scaling would work. Here is a link to the appropriate place to send your compliant.

[horus1]

Thank you very much

[forest]

Grant Baker is Chairman of both TRA and TIL.
It is his responsibility ultimately to have clear communication with share holders.
I think the communication with this capital raising for TRA and past communication related with TIL have been well short.
This is very disappointing as TIL is a marketing company and one would think it depends on the skills to convey clear messages.
I am wondering if Grant has the drive to attend to the finer details chairing companies like TRA and TIL require.

[Beagle]

You need "detail" skills to put together offer documents. If you haven't got those skills within your organisation you get consultants in who do. This is the most basic level of professionalism I expect from Companies in which I invest. The fact that these skills are not being displayed begs the question, (at least in my mind) as to the level of professionalism throughout the rest of the company.

It is worth noting that HBL has increased in SP by 75% in the last 3 years plus dividends whereas Turners have increased just 27% plus dividends against the NZX50 benchmark of a 52% increase. In my opinion it is worthwhile pondering if the basic level of professionalism lacking in this SPP offer might be affecting the company in other ways too ?

The leaders set the tone for the whole organization...if they're not displaying top notch professional skills then...

Noted in the results presentation by this observer was that they can issue shares for future acquisitions. I for one wonder if they play a little fast and loose with share issues chasing growth (perhaps for purposes of their own self actualization and reward) at the expense of pretty modest EPS growth. You see that reflected in the SP performance over the years which is below the NZX50.
Others are entitled to their opinion absolutely, but in mine the lack of professionalism and the manner in which the company promotes itself with its growth is a little disconcerting with such modest historical EPS growth.

Another just "average" N.Z. company in my opinion.

[blackcap]

. You see that reflected in the SP performance over the years which is below the NZX50.


Another just "average" N.Z. company in my opinion.

Fair enough what you write, just be a bit careful though when comparing apples with oranges. For a high dividend paying company such as TRA, its not really fair to compare the SP vs the NZX50 which in itself has constituents paying high dividends. Maybe best to compare vs the capital index?

[horus1]

I agree with beagle

[Frostyb0y]

Grant Baker is Chairman of both TRA and TIL.
It is his responsibility ultimately to have clear communication with share holders.
I think the communication with this capital raising for TRA and past communication related with TIL have been well short.
This is very disappointing as TIL is a marketing company and one would think it depends on the skills to convey clear messages.
I am wondering if Grant has the drive to attend to the finer details chairing companies like TRA and TIL require.

I agree with this, and have held this view for over a year now. Same could possibly be said of Geoff Ross, the other Business Bakery partner who is also former chairman of TIL and CEO of MOA.

[winner69]

I agree with this, and have held this view for over a year now. Same could possibly be said of Geoff Ross, the other Business Bakery partner who is also former chairman of TIL and CEO of MOA.

Get over it - we need to realise that retail shareholders are a real pain and this is how we treat them.

[percy]

A lot of noise here.
Luckily I am deaf.!!!

[winner69]

A lot of noise here.
Luckily I am deaf.!!!

That's why you in the big end of town eh percy

[percy]

That's why you in the big end of town eh percy

Exactly.
Do your own research,and each time the company you invest in, does what it says it will do,buy more.
If they don't sell.
It really works.!!.
Only way to be always "well positioned."


ps.I do like companies where the directors/management have a lot of skin on the line.

[Beagle]

A lot of noise here.
Luckily I am deaf.!!!

:lol: :lol: Too funny mate. Time for this hound to move on from this and go sniffing elsewhere in search of the next hunt.

[blackcap]

Right on cue, 3 cent fully imputed quarterly dividend coming.

[percy]

Right on cue, 3 cent fully imputed quarterly dividend coming.

OMG.
And to think we will keep getting them every three months.!!!

ps.I am learning to live with that.!

[blackcap]

OMG.
And to think we will keep getting them every three months.!!!

ps.I am learning to live with that.!

well the next one may be 3 cents but the ones after that may be 4 or higher..... if last year is anything to go by.

[percy]

well the next one may be 3 cents but the ones after that may be 4 or higher..... if last year is anything to go by.

TRA have laid the foundations to keep paying increasing divies.
4 cents [plus] ???? Bring it on.!

[blackcap]

TRA have laid the foundations to keep paying increasing divies.
4 cents [plus] ???? Bring it on.!

Indeed, I was being conservative. To date the quarterlies have been 3,3,4 and 4.5. With increased profits and their dividend policy these could well increase in FY18. I would hope for 3 (we know), 3.5, 4 and 5. But time will tell.

[McGinty]

:lol: :lol: Too funny mate. Time for this hound to move on from this and go sniffing elsewhere in search of the next hunt.

Good call, plenty of other potential opportunities out there. I've had my vent as with most other disapointed TRA retail investors, but I doubt it will come to much as the rule book isn't written by us, for us (retail guys).

[JeremyALD]

I got a response to my email today from Todd Hunter advising the thoughts have been passed into the board and they will strongly consider a rights issue next time.

Must say I'm pretty impressed he took the time to write to me. Nice to hear that they've listened and I'm sure if they do this again a rights issue will be used.

[Beagle]

You guys got your unused part of the share purchase plan refunded yet ?

[JeremyALD]

You guys got your unused part of the share purchase plan refunded yet ?

Not yet Beagle.

[horus1]

He replied to me as well and I'm impressed.

[percy]

You guys got your unused part of the share purchase plan refunded yet ?

Not much coming back...lol.
Happily looking forward to receiving their fat divie..

[blackcap]

Not much coming back...lol.
Happily looking forward to receiving their fat divie..

Yeah nothing back yet here either. If nothing by Wednesday I will be making a call or two. Should not take that long after allotment these days with direct credit. Divvie will be good though.

[percy]

Yeah nothing back yet here either. If nothing by Wednesday I will be making a call or two. Should not take that long after allotment these days with direct credit. Divvie will be good though.

From memory I think they said 5 working days after allotment.

[Beagle]

Amazing that it takes 5 working days to work out what shareholders are entitled too in terms of a refund.

[percy]

Amazing that it takes 5 working days to work out what shareholders are entitled too in terms of a refund.

One of the many ways Computer Share make their money.

[blackcap]

One of the many ways Computer Share make their money.

Percy you are right about the 5 days. My computershare statement tells me that I got allotted x amount of shares and that refund monies will be paid on Wednesday.

[sb9]

Refund money in the bank a/c this evening.

[BlackPeter]

Looks like Paul Byrnes got his full allocation (4966 shares for $14,997.32): https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268030.pdf

I guess he must hold still more shares than percy ... ;);

[winner69]

Looks like Paul Byrnes got his full allocation (4966 shares for $14,997.32): https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268030.pdf

I guess he must hold still more shares than percy ... ;);

That’ll upset a few

[blackcap]

Looks like Paul Byrnes got his full allocation (4966 shares for $14,997.32): https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/268030.pdf

I guess he must hold still more shares than percy ... ;);

Haha funny that he only got scaled back by $2.68. Love the scaling algorithm they used. Well not love but it was bizarre. I think it favoured the head shares over the Bonds but that is because I hold heads and got 2/3 of what I asked for, my partner got 1/5 of what she asked for. In $ amounts I hold about 20% more than she does. So to me it seems like it was skewed to TRA holders over Bond holders.
Paul Byrnes must hold a boat load of shares. (Quite a few million I believe, not going to look it up now)

[Snoopy]

I am making a formal complaint re the different wording on page 3 and 12 and have advised the the company via the above link . They should honour the most advantageous condition for individual shareholders as per page3 or 12. This is plainly very sloppy and they shouldn't get away with it. Where were there lawyers and banks.


I got 61% of the dollar amount of shares that I applied for. Not up there with the foundation holders like Paul Byrnes who got nearly all he asked for. Or even the 'Fat Cats' like Percy. But I will happily bask in the glory of being a 'Mildly Obese Cat' for SPP purposes. So where do I stand on the scale of aggrievement?



No. of Shares EOFY210774 523 527


plus No. of Shares in Placement (based on $25m pool at $3.02 per share)8 278 146


plus No. of Shares in SPP (based on $5m pool at $3.02 per share)1 655 629


equals No. of Shares (After Placement and SPP) 84 457 301



The ratio of 'New Shares' to 'Old Shares' is:

84 457 301 / 74 523 527 = 1.133

So by my reckoning, anyone who got more than 13.3% in new shares compared to their previous total, has not had their share in the company diluted. I have now got 14.6% more shares than I had before this exercise. So I guess I came out well, (helped by my holding of bonds of course).

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

If we come to the bondholders, who want a good fixed interest bond, I don't see much cause for complaint.

These bondholders are still set to get all their capital back at bond maturity time. There is no change to the bond income as a result of the issue of new shares. One might argue that the new capital raised means a stronger balance sheet and so the risk of the bond capital not being repaid has been reduced. Granted the new capital is meant to fund expansion. So by the time the bonds roll around for repayment this new capital may have already been spent. The option to buy new TRA shares just because you were a bond holder was an unexpected freebie. The problem here is that if you had say $10,000 worth of bonds (a reasonable holding), this would entitle such a bondholder to a number of new shares, based on the equivalent of holding :

$10,000/ $3.75 = 2666 shares

Using the actual pay out rate of some 13.3% to avoid 'dilution', such a bond holder might expect to get:

0.133 x 2666 = 354 shares

If the shares are selling at $3.20 each on market after the issue, and the application price was $3.02 the expected profit would be:

354 x ( $3.22 - $3.02 ) = $70.80

Take a minimum brokerage figure off that $70.80 and there isn't much profit to be made for the bondholder. But the equation changes if you are also a shareholder. Because your small quota of bond eligible shares can be added to a much larger total. And that makes this kind of short term arbitrage possible, if that is what you as a shareholder want to do.

SNOOPY

[Snoopy]

People who own the bonds will know that holding 'bonds' and holding 'options' that convert to shares is one and the same thing. TRAHB bonds can be thought of as either bonds or options depending on the owners mindset.

For those that think 'options', the biggest benefit will come as the TRA hare price rises above $3.95. Above $3.95, the 5% discount at conversion equates to $3.75. $3.75, it has been dictated, is the maximum conversion price that option holders will pay. If the share price rises higher than $3.95 this increases the discount conversion price to more than 5%, and such an increasingly juicy discount has extra value. The problem is that in the long term a higher share price can only be justified by increasing earnings per share. If a lot of new shareholder capital is issued, such as has just happened, this will reduce earnings per share, at least initially. If this new capital is deployed in such a way that it becomes 'earnings per share positive', then this new capital will likely have the effect of increasing the share price in the longer term. The problem is that 'in the longer term' may mean further out than September 2018 which is when the options convert. It is far from clear that this new share capital has increased earnings per share, and in the short term at least, it is almost certain that earnings per share has been reduced. This means there is a good chance that possible 'super profits', from a conversion discount of much more than 5% have now evaporated. This is a negative.

Furthermore, due to relatively poor TRA share liquidity, it is far from clear whether the option holder will be able to sell their newly issued shares at a premium by arbitraging the market price against the issue price. I should point out here that you can't lose money on this arbitrage because the back up option of simply redeeming the bonds for cash still exists. In truth I am not sure that those assuming the share price would exceed $3.95 by September 2018 were living in a fantasy land. Granted an irrational exuberant market might yet price the shares there. But even pre the recent share issue that would have been a lofty multiple, and probably an unrealistic expectation.

Option holders, like bondholders, still received the chance to receive new shares with the SPP in a way that was not envisaged when they signed up to the bonds. Whether that was enough to compensate for the probable erosion of the 'super conversion discount' is likely a matter of opinion.

SNOOPY

[RTM]

Thanks for the analysis Snoopy. I have some bonds, quite happy with the 6.25% return while they look after my money. At the end of their term, I hope to convert to shares. But if not attractive, will either take the cash, or if available, I suspect their may be a replacement bond issue to roll over into if I am still confident in the progress/stability of the company. Which ever way it works out, happy holder.

[sb9]

Hmmm...this one is not moving anywhere eh....trading currently cum 3c divvy and price at best stagnating or dropping few cents.

[percy]

Hmmm...this one is not moving anywhere eh....trading currently cum 3c divvy and price at best stagnating or dropping few cents.

Bit surprised myself.
I would have thought once the SPP was out of the way,there would be more buying support.

[winner69]

Bit surprised myself.
I would have thought once the SPP was out of the way,there would be more buying support.

big end of town not buying more ....hmmm

[Beagle]

Is that really a surprise ? They drill down into shareholders pockets every year in one form or another either through placements, share issues or convertible note issues and then deliver very mediocre EPS growth. On top of that a major shareholder has been selling down and we've just had a SPP plan to mop up retail investors money. Any wonder the well of support is running a bit dry ?
Youi can only squeeze so much juice out of an orange and these guys have squeezed hard and often. Maybe the market is telling them to stand and deliver or else, certainly you'd be forgiven for thinking that looking at the SP graph ! The lack of support and lack of liquidity in the shares, (which is by no means just a recent phenomenon) is one of the main reasons I remain extremely cautious regarding this company. The other is the manner in which they talk about growth with never a single mention of the modest true EPS growth.

[McGinty]

Voting with my feet!

I have just completed selling my holding in this company following my recent correspondence with Todd regarding the scaling of the SPP plan.

After confirming my assumptions on the scaling, it was clear that the process wasn't transparent and fair to all shareholders. The methodology around the scaling allowed it to be effectively 'gamed' to the disadvantage of shareholders* who either just held or sold shares between the record date and allotment date (as shareholders who added either in the Placement or bought on market between those dates got a greater share of the $3.02 SPP shares as an allotment date was used as the reference for scaling - which included the newly purchased discounted shares).

* That took up their full entitlement of $15k

This doesn't sit well with me and the only thing close to an apology from the company is them saying a Rights issue would be a better solution next time.

On top of this (and as mentioned in a previous post) I feel that the price will be range bound for some time as sentiment in the company is very low. So I made the decision to cut TRA before the dividend as I can't see a catalyst in this stock to change the current momentum. If buying strength is weak prior to the share going Ex-dividend, I wonder what it will be like after? Possibly testing 12 month lows?

[percy]

With so many negative posts it must be near buying time again..!!..lol.

[Beagle]

Okay just to add some balance I will say that with the families tax package going through and increases in the minimum wage over the next few years this should feed through to more money in modest income families hands which should be good for Turners demographic in terms on assisting them into a low / mid value car. Increases in income should assist with debt servicing eligibility criteria too.

On the other hand we might see some softening in demand at the top / luxury end as business people remain cautious of the new political environment so this is probably not the optimum time to open a BMW dealership :)

[percy]

When "the workers" have their party in government, they are more inclined to spend,and take on debt.
One of the first things they want is a new second hand motor [on tick].
Turners are here to help them,car,finance and insurance,.
A case of being in the right sector at the right time.
Should interest rates increase, they will do even better.
I am "well positioned".!

[percy]

big end of town not buying more ....hmmm

Just added 847 to the wife's holding,and 3130 to mine.Both of us having the same even amount, makes things easier to work out.Also saves arguments as to who received the bigger divie.and who pays for our next holiday.Paid $3.14 xd.

[RTM]

Just added 847 to the wife's holding,and 3130 to mine.Both of us having the same even amount, makes things easier to work out.Also saves arguments as to who received the bigger divie.and who pays for our next holiday.Paid $3.14 xd.

Soooo....big end of town finally buying ?:p

[Beagle]

Pretty clear that the downtrend still continues as does the woeful lack of depth on the buying side. I think the directors have simply squeezed shareholders too hard and there's a fundamental lack of interest at present at throwing more money at this capital hungry business. Hard to see this breaking out of its malaise anytime soon.

[percy]

But as morning follows night it will,and I am "well positioned."
Exactly the same noise as HBL's SPP attracted a year or two ago.
And like HBL,TRA shareholders will reap the rewards................lol.

[Beagle]

But as morning follows night it will,and I am "well positioned."
Exactly the same noise as HBL's SPP attracted a year or two ago.
And like HBL,TRA shareholders will reap the rewards................lol.

No...Even I would have to concede the HBL noise was a bit more dogmatic lol

[percy]

No...Even I would have to concede the HBL noise was a bit more dogmatic lol

Exactly the same.
Share holders shafted.
Complaints,here on ST,complaints at HBL presentations and at their agm.Stupid people saying they will sell their shares,never again invest in HBL,will take their money out of HBL.
Yet like TRA, HBL raised the capital quickly and put it to great use.
TRA are not going to leave this extra capital sitting in a no interest deposit account.They have organic growth in a sector that is doing well,and plenty of opportunities for meaningful eps accretive acquisitions.

[RTM]

Exactly the same.
Share holders shafted.
Complaints,here on ST,complaints at HBL presentations and at their agm.Stupid people saying they will sell their shares,never again invest in HBL,will take their money out of HBL.
Yet like TRA, HBL raised the capital quickly and put it to great use.
TRA are not going to leave this extra capital sitting in a no interest deposit account.They have organic growth in a sector that is doing well,and plenty of opportunities for meaningful eps accretive acquisitions.

I hope you have it right Percy.
I am a little concerned that they are to concentrated in a particular area...that is used cars. I thought I was buying into a more diversified finance business. But it has changed since I first purchased, particularly with the purchase of Buy-Rite cars. Watching closely.
Disc. Hold bonds and shares.

[percy]

I hope you have it right Percy.
I am a little concerned that they are to concentrated in a particular area...that is used cars. I thought I was buying into a more diversified finance business. But it has changed since I first purchased, particularly with the purchase of Buy-Rite cars. Watching closely.
Disc. Hold bonds and shares.

They are a property developer,they auction cars, equipment,and written off vehicles.They import vehicles.They sell cars.They finance and insure cars,and equipment.Being able to clip the ticket the whole way through the supply chain.Moving the focus of the business from wholesale, to being in direct contact with the end user means greater margins. Some parts of the supply chain having greater margins than others,but each add on gives each transaction greater value and overall profit.
I have followed the car sales from 1967 when I worked in the industry.Very few hard years.Finance companies such as Finance and Discounts,Marac,Allied,and others have been very profitable.You must remember people will stop paying their mortgage, before they stop paying off their car.They need their car to get to work.No car,no work,no anything.
One great advantage TRA have over other finance companies is they can direct the car/equipment buyers, to their finance and insurance at point of sale.
Great business model that can be scaled up further,and will be.
Like HBL the directors are large shareholders.TRA are well capitalised with shareholders equity,bonds,bank lending,and securitization.

[McGinty]

Just added 847 to the wife's holding,and 3130 to mine.Both of us having the same even amount, makes things easier to work out.Also saves arguments as to who received the bigger divie.and who pays for our next holiday.Paid $3.14 xd.

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher? :)

[Joshuatree]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by KW https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=406846#post406846)
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4517)


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4518)

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4519)

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4520)

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

[McGinty]

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by KW https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/buttons/viewpost-right.png (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?p=406846#post406846)
I thought I might start a little discussion on the usefulness of TA for timing. Now I do NOT advocate trading based on TA alone (tried it, lost a lot of money) but if you have used FA to identify a select list of good prospects, TA can be quite useful at knowing when to buy, when to top up, and when to sell. The following are all examples of some of my recent share purchases and sales.

1. When to BUY
I only ever buy companies that are in an uptrend. (Tried buying downtrends, lost a lot of money). The trick is to know when to enter. Get in too early, and the uptrend may turn out to be a dead cat bounce, or fizzle out. Get in too late and you may miss most of the run. My favourite entry point is when the 50 day moving average crosses above the 200 day moving average and the share price is above the 50 day MA. While you miss the early run, the risk of the uptrend not continuing is somewhat abated. I have tried entries based on just the share price crossing above both MA, but 3 out of 4 picks fail to continue on. I confirm the trend by watching the MACD (needs to be in positive territory).

Example: CGF - entry was in early March, when the share price moved back above the 50 day MA and the MACD turned up ($3.64 - $3.81)
Attachment 4517 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4517)


2. When to TOP UP
Companies that are on exponential uptrends often present difficulties in deciding when to jump in. I have found that many pull back to a moving average, providing excellent entry points while the stock pauses and gets ready for the next leg up. Again, I use the 50 day average and MACD to confirm the uptrend is continuing, rather than the price decline being the start of the new downtrend.

MFG - has been in a strong uptrend for ages, but it took a breather and retreated to just below its 50 day MA. Entry point would have been end of April when the MACD went positive, and the stock price crossed back above the 50 day MA ($6.94 - $7.14)

Attachment 4518 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4518)

Another great example is SIV - entry point is end of February ($5.90 - $6.28)
Attachment 4519 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4519)

3. When to SELL
The first warning is when the share price drops below the 50 day moving average and the MACD turns down. This should put the stock on a watch list - its either a good time to top up, or a sell signal is going to be coming up shortly. If the price drops below the 200 day moving average I usually sell (I say usually, because its not uncommon for traders to try to drive the price down that far in order to trigger a bunch of stop losses, so you need to watch out for this little trick as often the share price rebounds immediately. IIN and CSV are good examples of this manipulation). If the "death cross" occurs (where the 50 day moving average crosses below the 200 day moving average, this is a signal that the downtrend is now firmly established).

ALQ - I bought into this thinking it had turned the corner and was heading back into a strong uptrend. Alas it was not to be, and in mid-March an exit was signalled ($10.50 - $10.80). Even though the price has rebounded recently, its still a death cross situation, and its more likely than not that the downtrend will continue for a while.
Attachment 4520 (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attachment.php?attachmentid=4520)

I hope others find this useful - its how I make decisions at the moment, its very simple, but pretty effective. Its part of my "get rich slow" investment strategy :-) If anyone else has any examples of when they enter or exit, then please post them.

Thanks JT,

It's a blast from the past but still worth a re-read :-)

[couta1]

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher? :) Her rule isn't always right, I've bought in downtrends, eg Air and others and done okay.

[percy]

What is KW's rule about buying in a downtrend Percy? It's been a while since we've caught up for a ST catch up, but surely this hasn't escaped you.


I'll ask her tomorrow if you need a refresher? :)

I have done very well following KW's rules.
Against her advice I held and brought more PGC in Aussie,because I had nearly 30 years investing in the sector via EBO in NZ..
In NZ I think she was against me buying more HBL when they hit a downtrend.
When I know a company backwards I follow my own research.If I am wrong I wake up quickly and sell.I know what to expect from announcements.
The reasons I backed myself with PGC and HBL proved to be correct.
I expect to be correct with TRA as well.
I usually buy a small position in a company.On positive announcements,that prove my reaearch is correct,I buy more,and keep buying more as the company continues to achieve what they say they will do.
PGC,HBL,and TRA all have directors and management with very large shareholdings.All have excellent balance sheets,strong cash flow,are achieving growth both by organic,and sensible acquistions.All know where they want to be, and are focussed on getting there.
I am more than satisfied with the results I have achieved in both NZ and Aussie over the past few years.In fact, incredible results,helped by few mistakes.

[Beagle]

Her rule isn't always right, I've bought in downtrends, eg Air and others and done okay.

Her rule is right far more often than wrong though mate. If investors other than Percy see value here we'd see more serious interest and depth on the buy side. The palpable lack of depth and liquidity in this stock and its clear downtrend should be a red flag to any risk averse investor.

I must say Percy I am surprised by the apparent size of your position in a company with such modest EPS growth..there's SUM better EPS growth opportunities out there in my opinion, ones that are not in a confirmed downtrend either....you've got plenty of money so it doesn't matter at your age if you get a haircut but making out like this is a sure bet for others to follow your lead...I am not so sure about...but good luck to you.

[percy]

This year's eps growth will be affected by the increase number of shares on issue,so I expect only between 7% and 9% eps growth.The capital has been raised,and is being put to good use.
However I am expecting approx. eps growth of 15% plus in the following years,which will enable TRA to increase their dividend.TRA's dividend yield is currently 4.62% while SUM's is 1.83%.TRA have made good acquisitions which will see earnings strengthen.With a Labour government I see TRA being in the right sector at the right time [as are SUM] however any increase in interest rates will work to TRA's advantage,while they will work against SUM.

[winner69]

NZ Super Fund holds a few

Don’t seem to hold Heartland though

Turners cant be too bad then

[Snow Leopard]

I am surprised that the Pot Is Calling the Kettle Black here :ohmy:.

[Beagle]

They have a consistent track record of issuing more shares. Even more shares will be issued in 2018 when some convertible bond holders convert to shares and I am sure they will make another issue of convertible notes contemporaneously. 2019 will probably be another capital raise and 2020 more shares will be issued when the next lot of convertible bonds mature....and so on. Meanwhile SUM companies just go about growing earnings per share at an average rate of 48% without share issues and are trading on roughly the same cheap forward PE...go figure... Its not that hard to see who has the better track record of EPS growth and the vastly more attractive PEG.
SP follows EPS growth...so some astute poster on here told me once upon a time...

[LAC]

From my understanding (very young in TRA so might be missing some info) but their cash flow is good but not enough to support their growth. They need capital from somewhere which is what all the debate on here is about - how they get that capital being fair/unfair/other options etc etc. but they have still done the right thing by putting that capital to use straight away and very fast so that it will pay off long term (unless there are too maybe of their customers that cant pay off those loans for the cars). But next year they decide that the cash flow is good to get modest growth or the can do another capital raise or lower divie payouts so that they can achieve greater growth, I dont see the problem with that personally. Good use of capital is always a good thing. The EPS we are seeing may just not be great at the moment I agree, but assuming that loans for cars are on average 48/60 months...lets see EPS or the SP in 2022.
I am still liking TRA at the moment, I think they have a great plan, great product and they are in a growth sector "atm" that might change and I will change my view at that stage. Looks good to me for now.

[percy]

Thank you Turners my divie is in my bank already.

[Beagle]

At least you're getting something out of it. These were 28 cents several years ago (before the 10:1 share consolidation) and in that time the market has gone up HEAPS !
I think you should ring management Percy. The market is telling us there is some piece of the jigsaw puzzle you are missing...

[LAC]

Ahhh that slipped my mind, just checked and mine is in as well;)

[winner69]

At least you're getting something out of it. These were 28 cents several years ago (before the 10:1 share consolidation) and in that time the market has gone up HEAPS !
I think you should ring management Percy. The market is telling us there is some piece of the jigsaw puzzle you are missing...

Share price about the same as this time last year.....and down 22% in last six months

Was it really worth about 4 bucks plus .....and some were touting 5 bucks and salivating about the killing they were going to make on the bond conversion

We could say 40% down on expectations ......what went wrong

[blackcap]

At least you're getting something out of it. These were 28 cents several years ago (before the 10:1 share consolidation) and in that time the market has gone up HEAPS !
I think you should ring management Percy. The market is telling us there is some piece of the jigsaw puzzle you are missing...

They were also 8 cents a year before they were 28 cents, that was in 2012, so they have well out performed the market since then. The rise to 28 was on a lot of unsubstantiated hype. They actually went to 37 cents before falling back again.

[percy]

At least you're getting something out of it. These were 28 cents several years ago (before the 10:1 share consolidation) and in that time the market has gone up HEAPS !
I think you should ring management Percy. The market is telling us there is some piece of the jigsaw puzzle you are missing...

After following the company for some years, speaking with management/directors,and staff,understanding where they have come from, and where they are going, I know their business model is excellent,it is scalable,and is on track to deliver shareholders great rewards.Their acquisitions have been well thought out, adding to the core strength of the group.The balance sheet is strong.The brand is well known and Turners reputation is excellent.
On a personnel level a daughter brought a car from them a few years ago,and the experience was effortless.A first class customer focussed business.
As you know I trust my own research,as it has a proven profitable record.

PS.Anyone who does not understand that appointing the right people and giving them the tools to the job,will not led to a better business, would be well advised to read Ian Fallon's book "Billionaire,The Life and Times of Sir James Goldsmith".
Or The Mainfreight story.

[Beagle]

Share price about the same as this time last year.....and down 22% in last six months

Was it really worth about 4 bucks plus .....and some were touting 5 bucks and salivating about the killing they were going to make on the bond conversion

We could say 40% down on expectations ......what went wrong

Well some people were talking 25% earnings growth and the real EPS growth of 8-9% forecast was never mentioned until very recently. Big disappointment no question. Chances of the shares being more than $3.95 in September 2018 at conversion time are basically NIL and we now know a 5% discount to VWAP is insufficient to guarantee a premium on conversion as those that took at 10% discount with the recent capital raise are barely in the money. SUM companies are disappointing me and this is one of them. Disc: I have been selling the bonds.

[Snoopy]

Share price about the same as this time last year.....and down 22% in last six months

Was it really worth about 4 bucks plus .....and some were touting 5 bucks and salivating about the killing they were going to make on the bond conversion

We could say 40% down on expectations ......what went wrong

... the expectations ...?

I am happy with my own investment in TRA. IIRC I paid an average of about $2.80 for my shares and have a hedge of a few TNRHA bonds to go with them. The secret, as with any share that has a business behind them that actually earn money, is to not pay too much for them.

SNOOPY

[JeremyALD]

Sub $3 on the cards?

[Beagle]

Sub $3 on the cards?

Depends when a certain poster on here runs out of money to keep trying to prop it up.

[janner]

PS.Anyone who does not understand that appointing the right people and giving them the tools to the job,will not led to a better business, would be well advised to read Ian Fallon's book "Billionaire,The Life and Times of Sir James Goldsmith".
Or The Mainfreight story.

Yes I do understand where you are coming from Perc.. However .. As Beagle points out... The price has gone no where.. No where but down.. For years.

Would not your investment be better placed as you " Follow " .. TRA !!!!!... Waiting for the action to begin ??????.

Disc. Very minor..... Make that very, very, minor holding. ( I get the reports )....

[percy]

Think of a vegetable garden.Toil the soil,add the right manure,plant the right plants,give it the right amount of water and you will be well rewarded.
Same with businesses.
TRA have done all the right things.
The rewards will come.
I just don't know when.
Perhaps the half year result, which is due within the next month, will give us the/some answers.
You will note the imputated divie has been increasing,and is now paid quarterly.

[janner]

The answer lies in the soil eh !!!

Around the Horn ??? Never missed an episode.. :-)))

[percy]

The answer lies in the soil eh !!!

Around the Horn ??? Never missed an episode.. :-)))

Just between us, I think their results will show they were planting by the moon calendar".

[winner69]

This looks good for Turners

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/3dffcbe3/motor-trade-finance-braces-for-auto-industry-disruption-with-brand-refresh-earnings-fall.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Motor%20Trade%20Finance%20braces%20fo r%20auto%20industry%20disruption%20with%20brand%20 refresh%20earnings%20fall&utm_content=Motor%20Trade%20Finance%20braces%20for %20auto%20industry%20disruption%20with%20brand%20r efresh%20earnings%20fall+CID_eb2ad1ed9b95fec2d6a66 73cf65662a3&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle3dffcbe3motor-trade-finance-braces-for-auto-industry-disruption-with-brand-refresh-earnings-fallhtml

[percy]

Turners result will be announced on Tuesday 28th November.
Thanks W69.And yes TRA are "well positioned".
The car dealers love non-recourse loans.Gets the liability off their balance sheet.
Just another ticket to clip for Turners.
They are big ticket clippers.!

[sb9]

Turners result will be announced on Tuesday 28th November.
Thanks W69.And yes TRA are "well positioned".
The car dealers love non-recourse loans.Gets the liability off their balance sheet.
Just another ticket to clip for Turners.
They are big ticket clippers.!

Sure does bode well for upcoming results next week.

Decent volumes y'day and today with few large off-market transactions at 3.15.

[LAC]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311025

Happy with today's results:)

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/311025

Happy with today's results:)

Yes, pretty solid numbers overall....

"Revenue was $163.8m for the six months (HY17: $113.9m), while Net Profit Before Tax (NBPT) increased to $14.2m (HY17: $11.8m). Net Profit After Tax was $10.0m, up 18% on the previous half year (HY17: $8.5m)."

[winner69]

EPS less than H1 last year (ok about the same but they did calculate it to 2 decimal places which ain’t too clever)

Time for Percy to sell I reckon

[LAC]

Time for Percy to sell I reckon

He might as well, I need some today:) Il be waiting

[JeremyALD]

Results seem pretty good to me. They continue to deliver solid performance.

Why is the dividend flat though?

[blackcap]

Why is the dividend flat though?

The dividend payed in $ amounts is actually more than last time. However an EPS basis profit is not up at all but flat. So no real rationale for paying a higher dividend.

[Beagle]

EPS less than H1 last year (ok about the same but they did calculate it to 2 decimal places which ain’t too clever)

Time for Percy to sell I reckon

Pretty sad really isn't it. Headlines proudly announce good profit growth but its all predicated on an insatiable appetite for more capital so all headlines are actually more than a little disingenuous as you actually have to read the financials to understand the real result which is of course as flat as a pancake.
I operate on the basis that the truth is always your friend even when you don't necessarily want to hear it and EPS of 13.36 cps compared to 13.40 cps is the sad reality of an increasingly competitive vehicle market.

The strong growth that one on here touted of 25% has actually come to absolutely nothing on an EPS basis and this in a year when they are integrating the Autosure business which was supposed to bring downstream benefits from a more vertically integrated product offer. One wonders how they are going to generate profit growth next year when they're not bringing brand new vertically integrated efficiencies to bear for the first time ?
Noted in the presentation a "refreshed" management team at Buy Right Cars...cut away the corporate speak this is code for the previous management were underperformers.

Maybe they should have used the old weighted average shares on issue trick to show their EPS in a slightly better light or have they done that already ?

[winner69]

Pretty sad really isn't it. Headlines proudly announce good profit growth but its all predicated on an insatiable appetite for more capital so all headlines are actually more than a little disingenuous as you actually have to read the financials to understand the real result which is of course as flat as a pancake.
I operate on the basis that the truth is always your friend even when you don't necessarily want to hear it and EPS of 13.36 cps compared to 13.40 cps is the sad reality of an increasingly competitive vehicle market.

The strong growth that one on here touted of 25% has actually come to absolutely nothing on an EPS basis and this in a year when they are integrating the Autosure business which was supposed to bring downstream benefits from a more vertically integrated product offer. One wonders how they are going to generate profit growth next year when they're not bringing brand new vertically integrated efficiencies to bear for the first time ?
Noted in the presentation a "refreshed" management team at Buy Right Cars...cut away the corporate speak this is code for the previous management were underperformers.

Maybe they should have used the old weighted average shares on issue trick to show their EPS in a slightly better light or have they done that already ?

done the weighted average trick already .....so the recent new ones haven't had much impact yet as it looks like they used a weighted average of only 75 million odd v 84 million actual shares .....ouch ....so full year eps could be interesting

decreasing eps / flat dividend / high PE ....hmmm

[Beagle]

done the weighted average trick already .....so the recent new ones haven't had much impact yet as it looks like they used a weighted average of only 75 million odd v 84 million actual shares .....ouch ....so full year eps could be interesting

decreasing eps / flat dividend / high PE ....hmmm

Ouch...oh dear oh dear. One wonders if the increasing pervasiveness of Trade Me and other online channels isn't undermining the traditional auction business of Turners ?
One might also wonder why they had to "refresh" the management team at "Buy Right Cars" ? I thought having the ability to cross sell insurance, mechanical warranties and finance through all these new channels was supposed to generate vertically integrated growth and efficiencies through a comprehensive product suite meeting all the consumers needs ? Yes you are right, their PE even after the steady SP decline over the last six months is still at quite a premium to Colonial Motors, a company with a 100 year proud history in N.Z. Hmmm...could we see this test the $3.00 level going forward ?

[JayRiggs]

Has anyone noticed on page 3 of the presentation, the graph on the bottom right says "Net Profit After Tax", but it's actually showing "Net Profit Before Tax".
Pretty amateur to get the title of the graph wrong.

[Leftfield]

........decreasing eps / flat dividend / high PE ....hmmm

Big warnings for holders IMHO. EPS is the key.

[percy]

Enjoyed my favourite drive this morning, Greymouth to Westport along the Punakaiki Coast.Stunning day,stunning coast line.
Great seeing Turners are on track with their growth plans.Good growth in all divisions.
Just loved "Turners is WELL POSITIONED to keep delivering profit growth for shareholders into the future."

[winner69]

Has anyone noticed on page 3 of the presentation, the graph on the bottom right says "Net Profit After Tax", but it's actually showing "Net Profit Before Tax".
Pretty amateur to get the title of the graph wrong.

Only bright sparks like you notice such things but not good form

On the same slide did you notice they put big ‘+24%’ etc against things like profit but don’t put anything next to the EPS number .....sneaky eh

[winner69]

Good comedy mate, thanks for the laugh. What profit growth, EPS is going backwards lol. Good luck, you'll need it.

Be fair - they are doing what they say they will do (like make heaps more money)

[JeremyALD]

Personally I think the result is fine. They obviously aren't going to make an immediate return on the $30m cap raise, it will take sometime.

[Beagle]

Only bright sparks like you notice such things but not good form

On the same slide did you notice they put big ‘+24%’ etc against things like profit but don’t put anything next to the EPS number .....sneaky eh

Like a used car dealer or a long term holder trying to jack up the price while he secretly laments the appalling lack of EPS growth...very sneaky.
The whole stock exchange is disingenuous because it completely glosses over the fact that the company's performance is lackluster and completely flat on an EPS adjusted basis. I suppose this is the sort of thing we should expect from a company selling used cars ?

Jeremy the EPS speaks for itself and the thing you have to remember is that with the use of weighted average EPS the extra $30m raised is weighted based on the timing of the raise and this company is a recidivist offender when it comes to raising capital and delivering lackluster EPS growth. The other thing to remember going forward is gains made in the last half are on the back of one off increases in revenue and profitability from the vertical integration of Autosure. You get those profit gains on new efficiencies from a more vertically integrated sale offering only once. How are they going to grow profit next year in a more competitive used vehicle market ?

High quality companies highlight real EPS growth, they don't attempt to dress mutton up like lamb. I think this is what it is, a very mature brand and Turners will continue to only battle against the ongoing trend for customers to do business with vehicles through online channels. In conclusion I really think the tide is going out on the traditional auction vehicle model due to the ongoing disruptive influence of Trade Me and other online platforms.

[percy]

A lot coming on stream.
Two new truck and machinery sites,in Wiri and Palmerston North are now operational,and an additional site is being developed in Hamilton.
New Turners Car Sales site is being developed in Porirua,and a new site acquired in Whangerei.
A new Buy Right site is under development in Penrose.
All these new sites will add to sales of not only truck,equipment and cars,but also finance and insurance.
It will also be interesting to see how Turners account for their development profits.In the longer term, I wonder whether they will realise these profits by sale and lease back of the properties.
Exciting future,and good see the funds raised being put to good use.

[LAC]

Remember that they raised a lot of capital which isnt used yet but the number of shares has increased. So in time the earnings will change when the capital is used but the number of shares will be the same;)

[blackcap]

Remember that they raised a lot of capital which isnt used yet but the number of shares has increased. So in time the earnings will change when the capital is used but the number of shares will be the same;)

There is that to consider... this HY profit should be evaluated on the old number of shares on issue, not the new number that we see now post the SPP and issue. So effectively EPS are growing.... :) All good after all.

[BlackPeter]

Remember that they raised a lot of capital which isnt used yet but the number of shares has increased. So in time the earnings will change when the capital is used but the number of shares will be the same;)

Spot on ... but never mind the ongoing management bashing exercise. Some people are just enjoying themselves ...

I do see lots of opportunities for TRA to come up:
+ Beneficiaries will get wealthier thanks the the new government and able to afford better used cars.
+ new wannabe students (incensed by the increased student benefits) will need cars
+ anybody yet seen a Labour built house? People still will need cars to sleep in ...
+ Labour governments always encourage spending ... more business for TRA!

All good - opportunity to buy some more?

Discl: holding, reasonable happy with the result and optimistic. As well - as percy rightly pointed out - there are a lot of new projects lined up to come online in the next 6 to 12 months - more earnings in the starting holes ....

[winner69]

There is that to consider... this HY profit should be evaluated on the old number of shares on issue, not the new number that we see now post the SPP and issue. So effectively EPS are growing.... :) All good after all.

Wrong - most of the new shares have not been included in the calculations


This years eps 13.36 cents calculated on 75.1 million shares (last year 13.40 cents on 63.6 million shares)

There are currently 84.7 million shares on issue - if they had used this the eps would have been 11.8 cents.

If they achieve $30m npat the full year EPS in F18 will be about the same as F17

They use weighted average number of shares over the period to do these calculations ....so allows time for those shares to earn some dosh.

[Beagle]

The hound reckons a lot of people on here don't understand how weighted average number of shares on issue works. Its weighted based on the amount of time in the reporting period the shares have been issued for, so shares only very recently issued like the $30m capital raise don't have much impact in EPS calculation this period. I agree with Winner and its disappointing to note only 11.8 cps if they had done their EPS this period on a straight numerical basis based on the current number of shares on issue, yes there's more profit coming but yes at the next reporting date the weighted average number of shares on issue will be a lot higher.

As I and others have cautioned several times this is a very capital hungry business that's generating very little last year real EPS earnings growth (4% if I recall correctly) and this year so far its going backwards. Share prices follow EPS not headline profit growth so anyone wondering why the SP is going backwards need no further explanation because promised headline growth is simply disingenuous on an EPS basis. The natural cynic in me that lurks just below the surface thinks that won't stop senior management and directors putting their hand up for more remuneration because look at all the profit growth we have created for you ! Someone hand me a Tui please !

[blackcap]

Wrong - most of the new shares have not been included in the calculations


This years eps 13.36 cents calculated on 75.1 million shares (last year 13.40 cents on 63.6 million shares)

There are currently 84.7 million shares on issue - if they had used this the eps would have been 11.8 cents.

If they achieve $30m npat the full year EPS in F18 will be about the same as F17

They use weighted average number of shares over the period to do these calculations ....so allows time for those shares to earn some dosh.

Thanks for the clarification winner. Might have to update my spreadsheet and add in some more numbers. Though if they can get 29-31 million FY profit that is still 31/84.6 or 36.6 cps before tax... which we get back as an imputation credit anyway. So those numbers still not too bad going forward.

[BlackPeter]

Wrong - most of the new shares have not been included in the calculations


This years eps 13.36 cents calculated on 75.1 million shares (last year 13.40 cents on 63.6 million shares)

There are currently 84.7 million shares on issue - if they had used this the eps would have been 11.8 cents.

If they achieve $30m npat the full year EPS in F18 will be about the same as F17

They use weighted average number of shares over the period to do these calculations ....so allows time for those shares to earn some dosh.

With all due respect - but this is B/S. Yes, they do have now 84 odd million shares outstanding, but this number is only true since mid October (when they completed their CR). What exactly has this number to do with their earnings through to September 30th?

The only thing which we might reasonably expect is that the HY balance contains some cost related to the capital rising (i.e. reducing the EPS for the old shares). How are these cost supposed to improve the EPS of shares which didn't exist at that time and funded with capital they didn't had at balance date?

Maybe we just let them do their job and judge this time next year how well they managed to invest their new capital - shall we?

[Beagle]

If they achieve $30m npat the full year EPS in F18 will be about the same as F17

I concur with this as they did a capital raise last year part way through the year.
$30m before tax gives $21.6m after tax and on 84.6m shares this gives 25.50 cps compared to 25.49 cps last year.
We got just 4 % EPS growth in FY17 and they are on track for 0% EPS growth in FY18 despite integrating the Autosure insurance business which was supposed to be EPS accretive on the basis of cross selling of services to existing and new customers. A growth business ???? Hmmm...
This hound reckons its a cyclical motor vehicle business with almost zero real EPS growth, (average EPS only really growing in line with 2% inflation) so my time proven PE of 10 for no growth cyclical business's should apply. I see fair value at $2.55. Maybe a PE of 11 if I'm being charitable based on average EPS growth of 2% for FY17 and FY18 ignoring inflation so perhaps as much as 25.5 x 11 = $2.80 at a bit of a stretch. Guess I better put my flak jacket on now lol

[percy]

You are looking at Turners from an accountant's perspective,not with an owner's eye.
Think of all the decisions your largest farmer has made over the years.A good number of them would not have made a lot of sense to you at the time,but all added great wealth to the farmer.
Turners have built a vertical integrated business that now has scale in each division.It is a very simple business that can expand either organically or by acquisition.
Capital has been required to fund the huge increase of non recourse loans,mainly through MTF dealers.
Capital is also being used to develop their own sites.However there is no reason why these developments can't be sold and the funds recycled for further growth.
Time for you to get out of the office and learn some business savvy from your farmer client.

[winner69]

With all due respect - but this is B/S. Yes, they do have now 84 odd million shares outstanding, but this number is only true since mid October (when they completed their CR). What exactly has this number to do with their earnings through to September 30th?

The only thing which we might reasonably expect is that the HY balance contains some cost related to the capital rising (i.e. reducing the EPS for the old shares). How are these cost supposed to improve the EPS of shares which didn't exist at that time and funded with capital they didn't had at balance date?

Maybe we just let them do their job and judge this time next year how well they managed to invest their new capital - shall we?

What I posted was not BS (which I presume means bull****)

Read it again mate - the H118 eps has been calculated on a weighted average number of shares of 75.1m (not 84.7 million shares)

The recently issued shares have had neglible impact on H1 EPS calculation.

For the full year calculation the weighted average will be somewhere between 75 million and 85 million (assuming no more big issues). We might see some increase in EPS for the full year on this basis.




ironic dividend is calculated on the 84.7 million shares eh .....everybody gets a bit of the pie

[RTM]

% Guess I better put my flak jacket on now lol

Nah, no need for your flak jacket Mr Beagle. You’ve expressed your opinion well, as a holder I appreciate your analysis. We all understand how you rate Turner’s. So just move on and don’t turn this into a crusade as you did with Heartland and all will be sweet.

Personally I”m going to give them a bit more time and would like to see the dividend increase in the next 12-18 months. If it doesn’t, well, I’ll be out as well.

Cheers,
RTM

[Beagle]

Fair enough RTM, no crusade..I will concede that someone has pointed out to me by PM that weighted average shares on issue this year will be about 80m so on that basis NPBT of $30m should give NPAT of 21.6m which should give 27 cps which is actually a 4% increase on last year, the same EPS growth as for 2017.

With 4% EPS growth year on year, (ignore the fact that this is really just 2% real growth after inflation, the equivalent of applying excess Nitrogen to a farm if you like) I would concede a PE of up to 12 is possibly appropriate so perhaps as much as 12 x 27 = $3.24. In conclusion I see fair value in the range of 11-12 PE x 27 cps = $2.97 - $3.24 with the mid point $3.10. Happy to leave it at that and good luck to holders.

[BlackPeter]

What I posted was not BS (which I presume means bull****)

Read it again mate - the H118 eps has been calculated on a weighted average number of shares of 75.1m (not 84.7 million shares)

The recently issued shares have had neglible impact on H1 EPS calculation.

For the full year calculation the weighted average will be somewhere between 75 million and 85 million (assuming no more big issues). We might see some increase in EPS for the full year on this basis.




ironic dividend is calculated on the 84.7 million shares eh .....everybody gets a bit of the pie

OK - firstly - apologise for me applying farmers gold on your posts ... it is better suited for our paddocks Good dung, though;).

On a more serious note - I guess the cynicism against TRA just got under my skin.

You mentioned the 87 odd million shares (despite this being absolutely irrelevant in the context of the HY result, but you mentioned as well that you (nice as you are) would not apply this number.

TRA had from March through to end of August roughly 74.5 million shares on issue and they issued some more August 31st and a somewhat larger number in mid September (this was the placement). Hardly relevant though for a financial result ending end of September - isn't it. Even the balanced number (though possibly mathematical correct) makes in practical terms no sense to be used for the HY results.

I put to you that any fair EPS would be based on the 74.5" shares - and investors would understand that the cost for preparing a placement do not improve the books ...

Anyway - yes, the HY was a bit soft but I think they positioned well for the time to come. However - patience is short these days (some want to see a return before the money is paid) and hardened investors need to have their fun as well, so let's not stop the upbeat.

At some stage when I feel it is justified I shall join in, but at the moment I am happy to wait.

[winner69]

OK - firstly - apologise for me applying farmers gold on your posts ... it is better suited for our paddocks Good dung, though;).

On a more serious note - I guess the cynicism against TRA just got under my skin.

You mentioned the 87 odd million shares (despite this being absolutely irrelevant in the context of the HY result, but you mentioned as well that you (nice as you are) would not apply this number.

TRA had from March through to end of August roughly 74.5 million shares on issue and they issued some more August 31st and a somewhat larger number in miii7d September (this was the placement). Hardly relevant though for a financial result ending end of September - isn't it. Even the balanced number (though possibly mathematical correct) makes in practical terms no sense to be used for the HY results.

I put to you that any fair EPS would be based on the 74.5" shares - and investors would understand that the cost for preparing a placement do not improve the books ...

Anyway - yes, the HY was a bit soft but I think they positioned well for the time to come. However - patience is short these days (some want to see a return before the money is paid) and hardened investors need to have their fun as well, so let's not stop the upbeat.

At some stage when I feel it is justified I shall join in, but at the moment I am happy to wait.

I’ll forgive you as always

Not much difference between your 74.5 million shares and the 75.1 million shares that Turners have used to calculate the EPS is there......so no real argument is there?

[JeremyALD]

Let's move on and all agree to disagree :)

[winner69]

Let's move on and all agree to disagree :)

All sorted now ....I think we have agreed to agree that there was no or minimal increase in H1 EPS v last year

[trader_jackson]

All sorted now ....I think we have agreed to agree that there was no or minimal increase in H1 EPS v last year

So TRA EPS this half year was 13.4c, their EPS growth from last year was 0 (so it seems)
Ok so full year estimated PE for turners, using $30m as NPAT, is 8.8 (NZX website says 12.4 currently)
They have reaffirmed guidance for 18% to 26% increase on FY17 (including turners acquisitions)
I know a company that rhymes with Prilogy that also reported their results today, their EPS growth from last year was also 0, nill, nothing...
Oh and apparently that company that rhymes with Prilogy is expecting "+10% revenue and EBITDA" including their acquisitions (I would assume)
The interesting thing is that company that rhymes with Prilogy is trading on a PE of 14.190, according to the NZX, and that was after a near 9% fall today.

So we have turners, who are growing between 18 and 26% (yes, including acquisitions) trading at a lower price to earnings ratio than a company, who has also made acquisitions and had 0 growth in EPS for the half year, despite also expecting to growth at possibly less than half the rate turners is expecting to.

Well I suppose either turners is cheap (or at least fairly valued), or that company that rhymes with Prilogy is expensive (or really expensive).

No wonder percy likes TRA, the last line in their announcement was Turners is well positioned to keep delivering profit growth for shareholders into the future.

[McGinty]

So TRA EPS this half year was 13.4c, their EPS growth from last year was 0 (so it seems)
Ok so full year estimated PE for turners, using $30m as NPAT, is 8.8 (NZX website says 12.4 currently)


You might want to have another go at this TJ, TRA use NPBT for their forecasts.

[sb9]

Good robust discussion y'day on the forum both for and against.

Being a holder I'm probably be biased in favour of the points raised. Overall the result from TRA wasn't that bad, having said that they're not growing explosively as evidenced in the numbers nor they're declining rapidly. Seem to be holding their ground in a reasonably fragmented and competitive market. And more importantly gearing up for further growth by making all the right moves like vertical integration, new sites, better product (collaborative) offerings etc.

Have listened to the conf call hosted by CEO and CFO. Can honestly say that they sounded very genuine and didn't ramp up the figures than what they were. They acknowledged the fact the sales were softer and also sounded cautiously optimistic about the future prospects.

At the very outset, CEO acknowledged retail shareholders disappointment re the recent SPP and they would keep that mind more in favour of a rights offer in future, very humble to admit that on their part.

Questions from Analysts present were probing and management did answer them in depth without beating around the bush.

In summary, I would rate the result to be on par and re their future prospects very promising. Only time well, will continue hold for now.

[trader_jackson]

You might want to have another go at this TJ, TRA use NPBT for their forecasts.

Apologies, so TRA makes $22m ish profit after tax, PE is about 12 - that company that rhymes with Prilogy and is growing half as fast (or less) is trading on a PE of 14 - a premium of 17% to TRA yet seemingly in a worse, maybe even much much worse, position?... interesting thought really.

[Beagle]

Appreciate your thoughts sb9.

Best comparative company in my opinion is Colonial Motors CMO, currently trading on a historical PE of 11.0.
Can't be bothered re-litigating the various differences between the two companies as Percy and I have debated that at great length already.

[percy]

From my Craigs broker.
"We maintain our buy recommendation [TP $3.75] with TRA offering a solid GARP opportunity and from a stronger capital base."
I note they don't bother covering CMO....lol.

[sb9]

From my Craigs broker.
"We maintain our buy recommendation [TP $3.75] with TRA offering a solid GARP opportunity and from a stronger capital base."
I note they don't bother covering CMO....lol.

Thanks for that percy, can't remember the name but there was one Analyst from Craigs y'day in the conf call.

[percy]

Thanks for that percy, can't remember the name but there was one Analyst from Craigs y'day in the conf call.

I was on the road yesterday,so missed the conf call.
Don't remember the Craig's analysts' name.
At this stage only Craigs and FNZC cover TRA.

[RTM]

From my Craigs broker.
"We maintain our buy recommendation [TP $3.75] with TRA offering a solid GARP opportunity and from a stronger capital base."
I note they don't bother covering CMO....lol.

Percy....stop poking that dog with a stick !

[percy]

Percy....stop poking that dog with a stick !

For the record.
I have read both Craigs' and FNZC's latest research on TRA.
Both confirm what I have posted on this thread.
"Buy" and "outperform" means we remain "well positioned."

[Beagle]

Both reports would have been prepared before the announcement yesterday that business confidence has fallen off the edge of a cliff to lows not seen since the GFC which I think has serious implications for the vehicle industry going forward. You need confidence to invest in major capital items and if confidence isn't there business's keep their chequebooks closed on major capex items. Obviously this has implications for CMO as well. Watching closely for impact on consumer confidence. If that starts to turn just as ugly then it will be crystal clear this cyclical industry has past its peak and is on the way down...
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9b13daf4/nz-business-confidence-tumbles-to-8-year-low-in-november-kiwi-drops.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NZ%20business%20confidence%20tumbles% 20to%208-year%20low%20in%20November%20kiwi%20drops&utm_content=NZ%20business%20confidence%20tumbles%2 0to%208-year%20low%20in%20November%20kiwi%20drops+CID_c6ba e295369762021633ed07323b7a5e&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle9b13daf4nz-business-confidence-tumbles-to-8-year-low-in-november-kiwi-dropshtml
Disc: Still holding a modest stake in TNR convertible bonds.

[percy]

Think HLG.
Same could be said of them.
HLG and TRA will both do well,with a Labour government..
Both are "well positioned."
New car sales may be a very diiferent story.Take care.!
Funny enough the charts are telling me it may be the right time to sell one .and buy the other.
One has buyers lining up,while the other has sellers lining up.
"The trends are a changing".

[Joshuatree]

Once in my life i drove a car naked but i have never worn clothes naked so im thinking both stocks will do well here if you get my drift/ cut of my gib.

[Beagle]

I am happy to acknowledge that most new car purchases are made by business's so the effect of this apparent collapse may be more acutely felt at CMO and the Chairman at the recent annual meeting in fact warned that it doesn't take much of a drop in business confidence to affect new car sales. That said they're right into trucks too as are TRA.
TRA on the other hand at their end of the market are more likely to be affected by a change in consumer confidence but I think there is likely to be some effect from business confidence declining so sharply. I for one think there's a major difference between the purchase of a car that involves considerable capex to buying clothes but I acknowledge this is less pronounced at the lower end of the car market as when one's old car stops working there's a need for a replacement regardless of economic conditions.

"Thank you" for that mental image JT :eek2: Got to get that out of my head now lol

[percy]

My experience in retail and the motor trade tells me when retail is busy,so are used cars.
With workers having "their" government in power they will spend more on retail,and take on debt to upgrade their car.They are more confident in retaining their jobs.
What they will avoid is large mortgages.
And yes new car sales will be under pressure.
Equipment/truck sales will most probably continue,as the government spends more on infrastructure projects.

[Beagle]

Fair comment on the general retail comparison Percy but I think you may be drawing a long bow to compare HLG's stunning market update with sales up 15% to TRA's near term prospects. HLG have reinvested extensively in the last year with double their normal capex program with new Euro style stores both here and across the Tasman and these nicely refreshed stores are clearly resonating well with consumers.

By way of comparison there's nothing much wrong with any of the Briscoe's stores I've visited with generally a good clean modern layout and Rod Duke recently announced a modest 2.7% lift in Q3 sales to the end of October and by way of further comparison WHS sales have been in decline although much of that is to do with their repositioning of pricing to everyday value.

Disc: For what its worth, today I reduced my CMO shares and used the proceeds to add to my holding in HLG. I'm watching future consumer confidence survey's closely.

[percy]

Turners have developed three new equipment/trucks sites,two of which are now operational.
Two new Turners sites are being developed,and a Buy Right Cars site.
Six new sites,selling not only equipment/trucks/cars but finance and insurance.
Timely selling down CMO.And yes I think there is mileage in HLG.The way TRA were talking at their presentation, I think they are going great guns, now the election is done and dusted.Remember they are closer to the coal face than daily sharechat.
Briscoes.Great operation.Nice products.I avoid WHS.

[Beagle]

I agree that the development of new sites is probably a good use for the new capital raised and certainly more likely to be better than than buying existing dealerships and paying millions more for goodwill that may or may not be worth much. I take you point which was well made about building scale into their model. I think the shocking business confidence survey out this week is a game changer for new car distributors and in that context given that's its predominantly business's that buy new cars with this new in formation now released I now concur with you that its likely that the used car segment will outperform new cars in 2018.

[winner69]

Develop your own sites and you get what you want.

Once settled in sell and leaseback always getting a very good price .....and heaps of profit

Way to go.

[percy]

A lot coming on stream.
Two new truck and machinery sites,in Wiri and Palmerston North are now operational,and an additional site is being developed in Hamilton.
New Turners Car Sales site is being developed in Porirua,and a new site acquired in Whangerei.
A new Buy Right site is under development in Penrose.
All these new sites will add to sales of not only truck,equipment and cars,but also finance and insurance.
It will also be interesting to see how Turners account for their development profits.In the longer term, I wonder whether they will realise these profits by sale and lease back of the properties.
Exciting future,and good see the funds raised being put to good use.

The very strong "Turners" brand means these sites are up and running very quickly,meaning a return on capital almost straight away.
The add on finance and insurance products, are already set up,so Turners are clipping these tickets straight away too.
I would expect the same for the "Buy Right Cars" brand in Auckland.
Whether Turners take Buy Right Cars nationally,we will have to wait to find out.

[percy]

Looks as though the TRA train is about to leave the station.
Final call,all aboard..toot toot.!!

[couta1]

Looks as though the TRA train is about to leave the station.
Final call,all aboard..toot toot.!! Trouble is, it left the station a year ago but had to return to it's origin for running repairs, passengers have spent a long time in the departure longue meantime, waiting for another departure schedule. PS-Hope those repairs will allow punters to get further along the tracks this journey.

[percy]

Trouble is, it left the station a year ago but had to return to it's origin for running repairs, passengers have spent a long time in the departure longue meantime, waiting for another departure schedule. PS-Hope those repairs will allow punters to get further along the tracks this journey.

New engine,new carriages.
Toot toot.
I fuelled up while the sp was on special.!
Well positioned.

[winner69]

New engine,new carriages.
Toot toot.
I fuelled up while the sp was on special.!
Well positioned.

Can we please keep trains out of the discussion ......Turners seem to be into motor vehicles

[sb9]

Yes, it does appear the motor cars are about to hit the expressway.

It took almost a week for the punters to realise its potential.

[percy]

Can we please keep trains out of the discussion ......Turners seem to be into motor vehicles

Did you miss the bus.?

[sb9]

I fuelled up while the sp was on special.!
Well positioned.

Likewise, doubled my holdings a week before the results...

[percy]

Likewise, doubled my holdings a week before the results...

All I can think is we are "well postioned."...............lol.

[winner69]

Did you miss the bus.?

Lot of buses to catch these days .....can’t catch them all can we .....have to get on the fastest bus I reckon.

[percy]

Lot of buses to catch these days .....can’t catch them all can we .....have to get on the fastest bus I reckon.

Fantastic ,and the commentators were telling us the market was fully priced.!!!

[Marilyn Munroe]

I was conversing last week with a used vehicle salesperson who moaned about the lack of buyers. He also said the chatter around the trade is of depressed sales.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn

[percy]

I was conversing last week with a used vehicle salesperson who moaned about the lack of buyers. He also said the chatter around the trade is of depressed sales.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Yes I would expect Turners growing retail business is affecting a lot of dealers.

[Beagle]

Number of registered dealers up 7% to 3,500 (an increase of 37% since 2012)
•Additional supply and increased competition leading to some margin pressure


Extract from Turners recent market update.
There's also a heck of a lot of unregistered dealers, people can bring up to six vehicles in from overseas per annum and resell them without an official dealer license.
The growth of Trade Me, autotrader and other digital channels is relentless. Anyone who thinks digital channels aren't impacting the traditional model is kidding themselves.

[percy]

Extract from Turners recent market update.
There's also a heck of a lot of unregistered dealers, people can bring up to six vehicles in from overseas per annum and resell them without an official dealer license.
The growth of Trade Me, autotrader and other digital channels is relentless. Anyone who thinks digital channels aren't impacting the traditional model is kidding themselves.
Fierce competition in all sectors,retirement,medical supplies,retail,yet those listed companies with a strong brand,good management and great service seem to be able to rise above the crowd,FPH,EBO,HBL,HLG,FRE,MFT,and RYM come to mind.
Turners with their strong brand,good vehicles,finance and insurance,plus very strong digital delivery of those services ,will see them stand out from the crowd.Real guarantees means peace of mind motoring.
Up 9 cents today to finish at $3.26.The momentum is building.

[Joshuatree]

OOOOh yuck something wet and sticky has dropped on my face. Not again,Its another cliche and its all over my shirt.:p Who said piggies cant fly ehhh!

[Snow Leopard]

Some objectivity is LONG overdue

:lol: :D :lol: :lol:
:D :lol: :D :lol:
:lol: :p :D :lol:
:lol: :D :lol: :lol:
:D :lol: :D :D


Stop it, you're killing me !

[LAC]

I was conversing last week with a used vehicle salesperson who moaned about the lack of buyers. He also said the chatter around the trade is of depressed sales.

Boop boop de do
Marilyn
I have the total opposite experience, I just had a chat with a dealer in NZC in Penrose, they have just purchased an extra site just to hold vehicles because of the massive boom in 2nd hand car deals. The site is next door holding around another 100 vehicles which now they have a problem to get them all complied in time. I think the industry is still in boom phase, lets wait 12 months and see;)

[sb9]

No more red arrows in my portfolio, nice.....

[JeremyALD]

No more red arrows in my portfolio, nice.....

I could say the same if it wasn't for MPG, however I don't think that red arrow is ever going away :p

[winner69]

I could say the same if it wasn't for MPG, however I don't think that red arrow is ever going away :p

Won’t that red arrow go away if you sell them all

[JeremyALD]

Won’t that red arrow go away if you sell them all

Like the Warriors I'm keeping the faith :p

[Beagle]

New engine,new carriages.
Toot toot.
I fuelled up while the sp was on special.!
Well positioned.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DmPSe0dU784

Out of steam already...

[percy]

Ha,ha,ha...................lol.

[Beagle]

Just a nibble Percy...I was hoping for a good bite, fishing no good today lol

[percy]

l
Just a nibble Percy...I was hoping for a good bite, fishing no good today lol

Well fishing has been really great for me of late.
Huge big HBL Marlin, which I hooked some time ago at under 60 cents, was landed today at $2.14.
Using the same bait with TRA.
It really works....lol.

[Beagle]

l

Well fishing has been really great for me of late.
Huge big HBK Marlin, which I hooked some time ago at under 60 cents, was landed today at $2.14.
Using the same bait with TRA.
It really works....lol.

Smoke that one Percy, Marlin taste great that way consumed at your leisure over the holidays...or you could do a form of dividend reinvestment and buy a nice car from Turners :)

[percy]

Smoke that one Percy, Marlin taste great that way consumed at your leisure over the holidays...or you could do a form of dividend reinvestment and buy a nice car from Turners :)

May need a bigger smoke house?
No need for another "new" car, as I brought a mint 2004 Nissan Slyphy, with under 20,000 kms,with the "one day" sp increase of my LOV.
Love my "new" car , and love LOV.

[Joshuatree]

That wouldn't have cost much percy,did you check the safety rating?
:eek2:Lowest , 1 star out of possible 5 (many newer models are 4 and 5 star)

[percy]

That wouldn't have cost much percy,did you check the safety rating?
:eek2:Lowest , 1 star out of possible 5 (many newer models are 4 and 5 star)

Having already owned one I know what a great car they are.Drive well,4 doors,with a good boot.
I had a 2005 ,done just over 120,000kl,was just getting a bit loose.
On recent holiday, I had one that had only done 85,000 kl.Drove a lot nicer than mine one.A lot tighter.
Then saw this one advertised on Trade Me,19,500 kl for $6,000.Ended up buying it for $5,500 plus on road costs.
Told the secret is to change the oil AND filter every 5,000 Kl.Gave my old one to one of the daughters.
I think it should last me 10 years or more.A fantastic car.

[Joshuatree]

One rule dont allow anyone else in that car if you're prepared to take the risk.All the best safety wise and maximas merrimas to you percy.

[couta1]

Having already owned one I know what a great car they are.Drive well,4 doors,with a good boot.
I had a 2005 ,done just over 120,000kl,was just getting a bit loose.
On recent holiday, I had one that had only done 85,000 kl.Drove a lot nicer than mine one.A lot tighter.
Then saw this one advertised on Trade Me,19,500 kl for $6,000.Ended up buying it for $5,500 plus on road costs.
Told the secret is to change the oil AND filter every 5,000 Kl.Gave my old one to one of the daughters.
I think it should last me 10 years or more.A fantastic car. Nice one Percy, I'm still driving my 1994 Suzuki Vitara, just clocked 320000k, a few battle scars on the exterior etc. Changing the oil every 5000k along with filter is not necessary, every 10000k is just fine for maximum engine life ,unless you do all your driving on gravel roads towing a trailer.

[iceman]

Nice one Percy, I'm still driving my 1994 Suzuki Vitara, just clocked 320000k, a few battle scars on the exterior etc. Changing the oil every 5000k along with filter is not necessary, every 10000k is just fine for maximum engine life ,unless you do all your driving on gravel roads towing a trailer.

Percy needs a car like that for his books. Believe you me. I've seen him open the boot and the books fall out but he knows where each book is :-)

[IAK]

Nice one Percy, I'm still driving my 1994 Suzuki Vitara, just clocked 320000k, a few battle scars on the exterior etc. Changing the oil every 5000k along with filter is not necessary, every 10000k is just fine for maximum engine life ,unless you do all your driving on gravel roads towing a trailer.

Still driving my 1999 Totyota Hilux just racked up 400,000 km a couple of weeks ago. Done nothing to it apart from regular maintenance. Was going to upgrade to a new Ford Ranger a few years ago, like a lot of my mates did, but put the $$ into the sharemarket instead :t_up:

[Joshuatree]

Appropriate thread.Turners say no safety rating at all for your Hilux IAK.:ohmy: Good luck.

[couta1]

Appropriate thread.Turners say no safety rating at all for your Hilux IAK.:ohmy: Good luck. The fact that it's a 1999 model with 400000k on the clock proves it's impeccable safety record.

[IAK]

Appropriate thread.Turners say no safety rating at all for your Hilux IAK.:ohmy: Good luck.

Hey, it's got safety belts what more do you need? lol.

Not sure if you've seen Top Gears' "killing a Toyota" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnWKz7Cthkk

[IAK]

The fact that it's a 1999 model with 400000k on the clock proves it's impeccable safety record.

Indestructible hilux + an exceptional driver = Safety :)

[Beagle]

I'll just put this out there. I continue to be amazed by people with a seven figure portfolio, (some of whom I count as my friends) that drive around in really old cars with a one or no star safety rating. I know many of them that do this which continues to strike me as a strange phenomenon. What is it about the relentless pursuit of wealth accretion that drives them to make this apparent illogical choice ?
Tens of thousands of people in N.Z. every year wish they had bought a stronger safer car when they are involved in an accident. Okay maybe some think that they're a really good driver and they won't be involved in an accident but what about the other person hitting you. Maybe they don't value their own safety much but even then even harder to explain is that these people are happy to see their kids, (who might be driving around their grandkids as well) and or their partner drive around in a vehicle with a very poor safety record. Surely this is illogical for an investor with substantial means to acquire a safer vehicle for their family ?

Turners have a great website. I went on there and there's lots of cars that are not on trade me and its not difficult to buy a good used vehicle with a four or five star safety rating for circa $15K. Safety ratings are generally listed with each vehicle listing. Yes a better car will depreciate more than some old dunger that's almost depreciation proof, (but will that kill you or make a material dent in your portfolio value ?) but yes you, your partner, your kids and your grandkids are FAR more likely if involved in a serious accident to come out materially better off than they would in a cheap old vehicle with a poor crash test record. The road toll of several hundred is only the very tip of the iceburg.

My brother runs a panel beating shop and tells me there's literally tens of thousands of bad accidents in N.Z. per year many of which result in serious / moderate injury.
I don't understand why the accumulation of money should be put ahead of one's loved one's safety and I put my money where my mouth is and bought Mrs Beagle a lovely new 2017 Honda Civic this year, (5 star safety rated on course). $26,500, actually it was a demo done a few thousand km's and comes with a five year warranty. Should easily give ten years trouble free very fuel efficient running.
Its too late after you've had a serious accident to wish you'd made a more common-sense allocation of funds to a safer vehicle for your family.
One of my clients swears his Audi saved his life when involved in a head-on accident...he now replaces it every 7 years or so with the same model whenever Audi update it.
No point being the richest man in the grave is there ?

Why is it some people spend ages and ages deciding on portfolio allocation to maximize their future wealth accretion but make seemingly illogical choices when it comes to allocating a decent amount of capital to some thing so important as their own their families safety when they can so obviously afford a safer solution ?
Are they letting their possibly "insatiable" desire to accumulate wealth run rough-shod over their own families safety ?
Just a thought...Money is like sea water, if that's your only security you'll never have enough, don't ask me to quote chapter and verse but its in Proverbs somewhere.
Is a more balanced approach to valuing one's families safety a more common sense approach ?... after all it doesn't cost a small fortune to drive a much safer vehicle.

[RupertBear]

Something I am sure we have all noticed is many people with large amounts of wealth actually live very frugal lives. They may simply not want a flashy new car or maybe they havnt really considered the safety aspect. Friends of mine were in a car accident recently, rolled three times doing 100km on the open road and walked away with minor injuries. They were told the safety features of their car saved their lives. So you make a very valid point Mr Beagle

[percy]

Once you are in the position to buy a new Merc, the desire to own one greatly diminishes.

[couta1]

Once you are in the position to buy a new Merc, the desire to own one greatly diminishes. One could write a whole page as to why someone with a seven figure portfolio may appear to be so frugal but there's no need ,as your one liner sums it up perfectly.

[janner]

Once you are in the position to buy a new Merc, the desire to own one greatly diminishes.

Never been able to understand the desire to begin with..

[Brain]

[QUOTE=Beagle;696935]I'll just put this out there. I continue to be amazed by people with a seven figure portfolio, (some of whom I count as my friends) that drive around in really old cars with a one or no star safety rating. I know many of them that do this which continues to strike me as a strange phenomenon. What is it about the relentless pursuit of wealth accretion that drives them to make this apparent illogical choice ?


Its because wealth accreation is a game. This is true particularly of sharemarket investing. I think of it as being monopoly ,snakes and ladders, poker and many others all rolled up into one. My partner tells me that the only money that is mine is the money I spend and I think she is right. It is hard to break the habit and the sharemarket game is the best game in town.

[horus1]

I have a big portfolio, getting toward 8 figures. My wife says it is because she buys all the specials and she is correct.

[IAK]

[QUOTE=Beagle;696935]I'll just put this out there. I continue to be amazed by people with a seven figure portfolio, (some of whom I count as my friends) that drive around in really old cars with a one or no star safety rating. I know many of them that do this which continues to strike me as a strange phenomenon. What is it about the relentless pursuit of wealth accretion that drives them to make this apparent illogical choice ?


Its because wealth accreation is a game. This is true particularly of sharemarket investing. I think of it as being monopoly ,snakes and ladders, poker and many others all rolled up into one. My partner tells me that the only money that is mine is the money I spend and I think she is right. It is hard to break the habit and the sharemarket game is the best game in town.

I love the game too. I run my own business, love my work and earn well. My end goal is to get into a position where my portfolio sustains a dividend stream ($50K) for my retirement (in another 15 - 20 years or so). BTW if we go out as a family we take my partner's Toyta Corolla 2008 which has a 5 star safety rating. Personally I feel safer in the Hilux - other vehicles can see you better (& tend to avoid you) and it never gets much faster than 100 km.

[freddagg]

Hey, it's got safety belts what more do you need? lol.

Not sure if you've seen Top Gears' "killing a Toyota" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xnWKz7Cthkk

They are tough all right but that is the problem. The only crumple zone is your chest when it hits the steering wheel.

[Ggcc]

Once you are in the position to buy a new Merc, the desire to own one greatly diminishes.

Could not agree more. I do see many people however who don't live by this model and spend and borrow throughout their lives. I can't live with debt over my shoulders, as I need to pay it back and feel uncomfortable until it is paid back (mortgage which I paid off in 9 years). The ones who spend it don't hesitate to mention to me "you only live once". My thinking is that these people can't be happy and content with their lives. That is not a fact, just my way of thinking. :)

The possession of the thing is the end of the entertainment. That is what I have learned though out life so far.

[IAK]

They are tough all right but that is the problem. The only crumple zone is your chest when it hits the steering wheel.

True, even worse for pedestrians lol. Still, It’s a lot safer than riding a motorbike or a bicycle.

[couta1]

They are tough all right but that is the problem. The only crumple zone is your chest when it hits the steering wheel.During 1990, went off the top of the Akatarawa road after a small truck travelling in the opposite direction forced us off coming around a blind corner(Those who know that road will know how bad it is) and rolled over and over a half a dozen times before landing roof down in the river, was driving a very solid 1974 Toyota corona at the time. The roof was caved in within a few inches of our heads, if we had been in a modern high safety rated car,we wouldn't be alive today as the roof would have been crumbled into our heads.Sometimes old and solid is better.

[Beagle]

Full front page of the Herald today N.Z. has 352 deaths on the roads this year - highest in 7 years. In the blink of an eye http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=11955958

Food for thought - Suppose one of your kids or your partner is one of the many thousands of people seriously injured on the roads next year.
What good is your share portfolio to you as you visit them in hospital and look at them suffering serious injuries, knowing that you could have done something about it and ensured they were driving a safer vehicle and that probably the effects of their injuries may have been materially less severe with a safer vehicle ? How do you live with yourself if your partner of child is maimed for life or killed ? In the print edition of the N.Z. herald it is reported that the pastor that was killed in this accident was going to preach a message the following Sunday. Her partner had to do it. The Message was about being grateful for what God has given us.

Maybe at this time of year after a great strong year in the sharemarket it might be time to pause and reflect from the game and do a stock take on the bigger picture.
If as my Uni professor suggested "Investment is simply deferred consumption" perhaps it makes more sense not to live life so frugally we take untoward risks with our loved ones lives ?

Percy brought up the Mercedes thing because he knows I used to own one but the reply seems like such a trite rebuttal.
The fact is Mercedes-Benz invented a lot of the safety systems we take for granted in cars today like ABS brakes, (ABS) Dynamic stability control (DSC) crumple zones e.t.c e.t.c. but also without wishing to overstate the completely obvious you don't need to buy a Mercedes-Benz to enjoy the peace of mind that these modern safety systems confer.

Apologies for dragging the tread off on a tangent and I will leave it at that other than to note that sadly I see Trade Me no longer seems to feature the ANCAP rating for vehicles in the rating section for each listing but lists the fuel economy rating, apparently this is more important, go figure ? Good to see Turners on their website still features ancap ratings where available for their listings. Good on them for making such valuable information available.

If you would like more information on ANCAP ratings please refer to this link. http://rightcar.govt.nz/
Useful information about how modern safety systems protect their occupants in the tab here http://rightcar.govt.nz/protection-during-a-crash.html
Information about how modern safety control assistance systems assist drivers to stay in control and avoid an accident in the first place is in this tab http://rightcar.govt.nz/staying-in-control.html
My hope is that those investors on here who are in the fortunate position to be able to afford one of the safest cars available would at least read the links in this thread to gain an understanding of how modern safety systems work so that they can make an informed decision next time they replace one of their loved ones vehicles.
Best wishes for safe motoring this festive season.

[percy]

[QUOTE=

Percy brought up te Mercedes thing because he knows I used to own one .




I was actually thinking of a friend of mine,who owns a Jag and his wife owns a very new and expensive Merc.
She was backing out of their garage and damaged her exterior mirror.My friend asked me how much I thought it would be to repair it.I said $1,300 and he said $1,800.Ended up over $2,000.!
He said that Merc were dam expensive and the cost of repairs were out of this world,and his Jag was better value..So I took it Mercs were very expensive to buy new,so quoted a Merc.
I was thinking of him and his wife,not you..

.

[Beagle]

They're expansive to buy and expensive to fix, no question about that but plenty of Japanese manufactures make 5 star safety rated cars, that's my main point and some as cheap as $20 - $25K brand new. Each to their own Percy, I got sick of seeing my kids take risks with their lives and our grandkids lives with 20+ year old unsafe cars so I did something about it a few years ago and got them sorted with much better ones. Cost me $8K for my daughter for a four star rated car and she eventually repaid $6K of it and I wrote the rest off. $13K for my stepdaughter and her and her boyfriend also repaid most of it. Didn't make much of a dent in my portfolio.
They're the ultimate beneficiaries of all my hard work so I don't see much harm in ensuring they get some small benefit from it now.
My daughters often go out together and take all three of our grandkids with them. The thought of all five of them being wiped out in an accident in a dodgy old unsafe car was too much for me to bear and forced my hand.

[RTM]

Bigger Cars Are Safer Than Smaller Ones
New small cars are safer than they've ever been, but new larger, heavier vehicles are still safer than small ones. It's a matter of physics: Bigger and heavier is safer than smaller and lighter. Large vehicles weigh more and have longer hoods and bigger crush zones, which gives them an advantage in frontal crashes.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/are-smaller-cars-as-safe-as-large-cars.html

And after all that you popped your wife into a Civic Beagle ? What do we read into that ?

[Ggcc]

Bigger Cars Are Safer Than Smaller Ones
New small cars are safer than they've ever been, but new larger, heavier vehicles are still safer than small ones. It's a matter of physics: Bigger and heavier is safer than smaller and lighter. Large vehicles weigh more and have longer hoods and bigger crush zones, which gives them an advantage in frontal crashes.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/are-smaller-cars-as-safe-as-large-cars.html

And after all that you popped your wife into a Civic Beagle ? What do we read into that ?


I would not read into it that much. I guess what he was meaning was the amount of cars out there that were vintage cars, but not actually classed as vintage cars. We all get the idea of safety, but you can do only so much. I have had friends who were caught in an accident without seatbelts and were told by the authorities that had they worn seatbelts they would have died. When it is your time it is your time. Just be cautious and patient and maybe leave early, abide by all the road rules and all the commonsense rules and hope to get to your destination in one piece. Heading off topic here so I apologise. Last post on this topic.

[Beagle]

Bigger Cars Are Safer Than Smaller Ones
New small cars are safer than they've ever been, but new larger, heavier vehicles are still safer than small ones. It's a matter of physics: Bigger and heavier is safer than smaller and lighter. Large vehicles weigh more and have longer hoods and bigger crush zones, which gives them an advantage in frontal crashes.

https://www.edmunds.com/car-safety/are-smaller-cars-as-safe-as-large-cars.html

And after all that you popped your wife into a Civic Beagle ? What do we read into that ?

That the once humble Honda Civic of 1972 has over ten generations morphed into a medium sized car and indeed does have decent front and rear crumple zones, see attached link https://www.trademe.co.nz/motors/used-cars/honda/auction-1264264576.htm?rsqid=22fa50fb57e04e1e8e797f22bce72 095 Its the largest medium sized car she feels comfortable driving. I also bought her a fire engine red one for high visibility...why take chances with a black or dark grey one ? Oh look, for those that can't bear to make a dent in their portfolio you can finance one for only 1.7% :p
Disc: The hound does not hold Honda shares or have any association with Honda N.Z. lol

Also except from your link you kind provided
Older 'Tanks' Are Not Safer Than Smaller New Cars
Some people contend that older cars were built like tanks, making them safer than new cars. It's not true.
A large 10-year-old vehicle that does not have side airbags or electronic stability control (ESC) would not fare as well in an accident as a small vehicle from today equipped with modern safety equipment and collision avoidance technology, said Becky Mueller, senior research engineer for IIHS. ESC greatly reduces the chance of a vehicle rollover, which is particularly important for top-heavy trucks and SUVs, according to IIHS.


What is more than a little sad is that according to Turners the average age of the N.Z. vehicle fleet is 14 years and cars that age generally do not have the very helpful new technology of dynamic stability control, often referred to as electronic stability control.

[RTM]

Finance not an issue...could sell some Turner’s shares. Like Beagle, no shares in Honda, currently driving 2005 CRV NZ new I was lucky enough to find with 30,000km on the clock, prior to that a couple of Accords. Love em and don’t consider safety at all when buying cars.

[sb9]

Some decent accumulation going on today, almost 500k volume.

[percy]

My divie is in my bank a/c already.l

[sb9]

My divie is in my bank a/c already.l

Your just beat me by few secs, was about to post the same. Looking forward for a positive update in the new year.

[percy]

Not sure when the update will come,but it will be positive.

[LAC]

I really need to setup reminders for these things....then again its like an unexpected present when forgotten:)

[percy]

I really need to setup reminders for these things....then again its like an unexpected present when forgotten:)

2015 and 2016 May.this year 28th March.
2018.?

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11967227&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+2+J anuary+2018

Interesting. New vehicle sales up 9% for 2017 whereas Turners are expecting a 2% increase.

[percy]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11967227&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Tuesday+2+J anuary+2018

Interesting. New vehicle sales up 9% for 2017 whereas Turners are expecting a 2% increase.

Be prepared to be surprised.!

Disc.I am "well positioned" already..lol.

[Beagle]

Be prepared to be surprised.!

Disc.I am "well positioned" already..lol.

You certainly are. My prediction that new sales would outstrip used has certainly come true for 2017 but it looks like consumer and business confidence is tailing off so we could see a reversal of that trend in 2018.

[percy]

Yes new cars will be slow.
However a very different story for used cars/trucks and equipment.
TRA sales will be strong,and all the time they will be clipping the ticket with finance and insurance.
Fantastic brand,fantastic business model.

[Beagle]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11968018

I am not over confident with truck sales. Business has clearly lost confidence with the change of government and I expect business's to be cautious with capex until they see how the economy will perform under Labour but good luck to holders.

[percy]

TRA will grow used truck and equipment sales,with their new Wiri and Hamilton sites now on stream.
The momentum builds.

[Beagle]

TRA will grow used truck and equipment sales,with their new Wiri and Hamilton sites now on stream.
The momentum builds.

Well, Yes and No. Momentum is building to some extent, (not sure if a 2% sales increase for 2017 is what I'd call momentum), and yes they have some new dealerships now but they also have a lot more shares on issue now and a lot more to be issued in Sept as a result of the convertible bonds redemption. Momentum is only any good if its on an EPS basis and the company's own forecast suggests EPS growth of just 4% for FY18. I try and invest in companies with more EPS momentum than that. Maybe they will outperform their own forecast...but then again they don't have a history of doing that so perhaps not. As always time will tell.

P.S. I have done the books for a second hand truck dealership for many years. In my opinion its all about the caliber of the management and how well they buy overseas both in terms of pricing and buying the right product to meet local demand. There was a LOT of money in this sort of thing in the early days, its a lot more competitive now both locally and overseas. The main problem is that with strong world-wide growth there's very strong demand for used trucks overseas and the real used bargains that once existed in Japan and elsewhere are no longer there...well that's what I hear from my client for what its worth.