HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[RupertBear]

No offence mate but I really think you should consider if investing in the share market is right for you.

No offense taken James, I do have a tendency to be impulsive, which can get me into trouble, but I am learning heaps and although it may not seem like it I am getting better at investing and doing quite well with my other shares. That being said, you may be right and the share market may not be right for me, time will tell. ;)

[percy]

No offense taken James, I do have a tendency to be impulsive, which can get me into trouble, but I am learning heaps and although it may not seem like it I am getting better at investing and doing quite well with my other shares. That being said, you may be right and the share market may not be right for me, time will tell. ;)

Stick with it.Keep reading,keep learning.I am still reading,and still learning. I have followed the sharemarket for 51 years.
Made every mistake you can make.Just when you think you know what you are doing, the market gives you a good kick in the back side!!
However the mistakes get fewer,and your capital gains momentum,and the divies keep on increasing.
It is called financial independence.Well worth the effort.
Look for companies that have the capacity to keep paying increasing dividends.

[RupertBear]

Stick with it.Keep reading,keep learning.I am still reading,and still learning. I have followed the sharemarket for 51 years.
Made every mistake you can make.Just when you think you know what you are doing, the market gives you a good kick in the back side!!
However the mistakes get fewer,and your capital gains momentum,and the divies keep on increasing.
It is called financial independence.Well worth the effort.
Look for companies that have the capacity to keep paying increasing dividends.

Thanks Percy, always appreciate your comments :)

[couta1]

No offense taken James, I do have a tendency to be impulsive, which can get me into trouble, but I am learning heaps and although it may not seem like it I am getting better at investing and doing quite well with my other shares. That being said, you may be right and the share market may not be right for me, time will tell. ;) Ironic that Percy said the very same thing to me about 6 years ago, impulsive tick, never say die ,tick. I've made every mistake you could possibly make plus I reckon I've invented some new ones, yet I have also found some unorthodox ways of doing things which have worked in my favour. Like anything achieved in life, if you want to do well in the market, immerse yourself in it, study it's patterns, don't follow the herd if your conviction says otherwise, listen to your Gutometer. PS-I can see your progress over the last year or so.

[RupertBear]

Ironic that Percy said the very same thing to me about 6 years ago, impulsive tick, never say die ,tick. I've made every mistake you could possibly make plus I reckon I've invented some new ones, yet I have also found some unorthodox ways of doing things which have worked in my favour. Like anything achieved in life, if you want to do well in the market, immerse yourself in it, study it's patterns, don't follow the herd if your conviction says otherwise, listen to your Gutometer. PS-I can see your progress over the last year or so.

Thanks couta I appreciate your support, you have helped me a lot over the last year or so :)

[Beagle]

Is it worth asking for Hallensteins to give us quarterly sales updates like Briscoes? Seems like a reasonable request?

SUM other companies also do this and AIR effectivly does it monthly !

[RTM]

I was reading something today about USA REIT's. Came across this

"Stay Away: Retail REITs

As an investment, I don’t like retail REITs. At all.

2017 was one of the worst years ever for retail store closures, easily smashing 2008’s record of 6,163 store closings. Here are some of last year’s members who joined the dubious triple-digit (100+) closure club:

Teavana (379 closed stores)
J.C. Penney (138)
Gymboree (350)
Ascena (268)
Michael Kors (100)
Payless (512)
Bebe (180)
Rue21 (400)
RadioShack (1000)"

I am still avoiding retail.
Take care.

[couta1]

I was reading something today about USA REIT's. Came across this

"Stay Away: Retail REITs

As an investment, I don’t like retail REITs. At all.

2017 was one of the worst years ever for retail store closures, easily smashing 2008’s record of 6,163 store closings. Here are some of last year’s members who joined the dubious triple-digit (100+) closure club:

Teavana (379 closed stores)
J.C. Penney (138)
Gymboree (350)
Ascena (268)
Michael Kors (100)
Payless (512)
Bebe (180)
Rue21 (400)
RadioShack (1000)"

I am still avoiding retail.
Take care. Have any of those companies been around 144 yrs Lol.

[percy]

Have any of those companies been around 144 yrs Lol.

J.C.Penny 116 years.
Have not looked any further.


LOV au $11.60 today.

[Antipodean]

I fail to see what Real Estate Investment Trusts have to do with HLG

[peat]

Have any of those companies been around 144 yrs Lol.

Radioshack started in 1921 but didnt make the century of existence, peaking around 1999 and filing for bankruptcy in 2015. It was also rescued by Tandy in the 1960's.

And its clear to me what REITs have to do with retail. They own the land and buildings that the shops lease to hawk their wares. If REITs are falling then retail footprints shrinking may well be a cause so this is commenting on the whole retail sector.
However HLG is not the sector , it is in the sector. Sure headwinds are annoying and fighting the tide tiring, but sooner or later the winds shift and the tide turns.

[Beagle]

Currency has bounced around 69-74 for a while. With the use of forward cover judging by results last year and outlook for the full year I'd say they are managing the situation extremely well.

US retail situation is very different to here. I vaguely recall reading recently that they're about four times as well serviced, (possibly over serviced) with malls of a per capita basis than N.Z.
Kiwi Income property trust recent expansion of Lynnmall and major expansion of Sylvia park speaks for itself in terms of the N.Z. situation in my opinion.

[Arbroath]

Radioshack started in 1921 but didnt make the century of existence, peaking around 1999 and filing for bankruptcy in 2015. It was also rescued by Tandy in the 1960's.

And its clear to me what REITs have to do with retail. They own the land and buildings that the shops lease to hawk their wares. If REITs are falling then retail footprints shrinking may well be a cause so this is commenting on the whole retail sector.
However HLG is not the sector , it is in the sector. Sure headwinds are annoying and fighting the tide tiring, but sooner or later the winds shift and the tide turns.

Peat

imho the fate of US Reits is irrelevant to HLG as US mall floor space is 500-600% of NZ or Australia per capita. I.e. There are 5 similar malls for every one down under for the same population so is it any wonder there are a lot of US mall closures?

[Raz]

Peat

imho the fate of US Reits is irrelevant to HLG as US mall floor space is 500-600% of NZ or Australia per capita. I.e. There are 5 similar malls for every one down under for the same population so is it any wonder there are a lot of US mall closures?

Internet shopping is on an entirely different level mixed with their retail, totally different markets...

[GTM 3442]

Internet shopping is on an entirely different level mixed with their retail, totally different markets...


For what it's worth, in a global context, in my opinion, the malls have sucked the life out of the high streets, and online shopping will, in turn, suck the life out of the malls.

It will happen at different rates in different countries, in different cities, but it will happen.

Similarly, off-shoring of clerical and administrative jobs isn't too good for office space, and the introduction of AI offerings will exacerbate that particular trend.

So my property exposure is to the likes of PFI, GMG, ARG - the industrial/commercial/logistics end of the market.

[Investor]

No offense taken James, I do have a tendency to be impulsive, which can get me into trouble, but I am learning heaps and although it may not seem like it I am getting better at investing and doing quite well with my other shares. That being said, you may be right and the share market may not be right for me, time will tell. ;)

I think what could of been said was that you should not panic when there are downward changes in the price of financial assets you own if you intend to hold them for a long period of time.

[mikeybycrikey]

I think what could of been said was that you should not panic when there are downward changes in the price of financial assets you own if you intend to hold them for a long period of time.

Well, I think it depends if the drop in the price is just on the whim of the market or if there is a concrete reason for the drop.

In the short term it’s pretty hard to tell the difference.

[winner69]

As long as they continue to rapidiously strategize impactful initiatives which assertively fabricate consumer directed fungibility HLG should see increased profits over the next few years

No worries

[Maverick]

Can the weather be any more favourable for a clothing merchant? had to buy 5 jackets for my employees this month. two years ago I paid $100 from Kathmandu. This year I've been trying to get replacements from them. The best I can do is $175 for the same type. I tried to wait katamandu out for the last month for them to put on some discounting. Also looked to find a suitable cheaper alternative elsewhwere. now I've had to bite the bullet and pay full price because the guys are freezing. HLG must be loving those winter woolies and thermals flying out the door at their early winter prices.
the extra $325 I paid for the Jackets wil be a drop in the ocean with the up sized divi coming next December. .....and December WILL come.

[JeremyALD]

You would think so but Hallensteins has definitely been discounting online a lot more in the last couple of months, I've been getting offers sent to me almost weekly. These emails were few and far between over summer.

[Beagle]

Winter has definitely arrived early, no question whatsoever about that !

[couta1]

Winter has definitely arrived early, no question whatsoever about that ! It's going to be a great ski season, Southern fields already have a great snow base.

[Maverick]

USD back up to 70 cents. freezing weather ....wait there's more, SP at $4.40!!!!
Why would you throw money away on the next MOA annual round of capital raising when bargains like are laid in front of us.

[JeremyALD]

Hallensteins CEO selling almost all his shares ..... that's not a great sign surely?

[Beagle]

Hallensteins CEO selling almost all his shares ..... that's not a great sign surely?

He's Hallenstein brothers CEO. Group CEO is Mark Goddard. Timothy Glasson still holds 11,950,588, over 20% of the company, no worries.

[couta1]

Hallensteins CEO selling almost all his shares ..... that's not a great sign surely? Not significant IMO, have a look at the quality of the Top 20 shareholders when you get a chance, which includes the likes of Kevin Hickman, none of them have sold any. PS-That dude probably wants a new sports car.

[winner69]

Hallensteins CEO selling almost all his shares ..... that's not a great sign surely?

Only cashing in his bonus I think .....good on him ....no worries

I wouldn't leave my bonus money in the company either

[percy]

Not significant IMO, have a look at the quality of the Top 20 shareholders when you get a chance, which includes the likes of Kevin Hickman, none of them have sold any. PS-That dude probably wants a new sports car.

I think he must read Sharetrader, and decided to follow "The A Team"; Beagle,Couta1, and Winner69 into TRA.?....lol.

[h2so4]

I think he must read Sharetrader, and decided to follow "The A Team"; Beagle,Couta1, and Winner69 into TRA.?....lol.

Lol!. Which one of you is Mr T

[couta1]

Lol!. Which one of you is Mr T That would be Beagle, T for Teddy.

[JeremyALD]

He's Hallenstein brothers CEO. Group CEO is Mark Goddard. Timothy Glasson still holds 11,950,588, over 20% of the company, no worries.

Yes I said Hallensteins not Hallenstein Glassons :) Probably not a big deal but he sold 95% of his shares which to me seems like a lot for someone at that level, even if buying something nice.

[sb9]

Went shopping (st lukes) y'day with wife as she was looking some stuff at Glassons. From what I saw the store was packed with all those lovely women folk and some were waiting for their turn at trail rooms (think there were about 10 of them).

She did end up buying what she wanted and I don't think there any slowdown in demand. And the men's shop across Hallensteins was busy too...

[Beagle]

Yes I said Hallensteins not Hallenstein Glassons :) Probably not a big deal but he sold 95% of his shares which to me seems like a lot for someone at that level, even if buying something nice.

People upgrade houses from time to time mate. Kiwi back over 70 cents U.S., all the talk of the currency falling through the floor has come to nothing.

[h2so4]

Went shopping (st lukes) y'day with wife as she was looking some stuff at Glassons. From what I saw the store was packed with all those lovely women folk and some were waiting for their turn at trail rooms (think there were about 10 of them).

She did end up buying what she wanted and I don't think there any slowdown in demand. And the men's shop across Hallensteins was busy too...

Be careful you don’t get arrested hanging around the fitting rooms sb9.

The Warrrringah Mall Sydney Glassons had trails of school girls perusing their shop. It seems they cater to the Teenyboppers this side of the Tassie.

[sb9]

Be careful you don’t get arrested hanging around the fitting rooms sb9.

The Warrrringah Mall Sydney Glassons had trails of school girls perusing their shop. It seems they cater to the Teenyboppers this side of the Tassie.

Lol, was far away from the trial rooms. Just that wife wanted show her dress, so had a glance only around trial room literally for less than 30sec.

[sb9]

People upgrade houses from time to time mate. Kiwi back over 70 cents U.S., all the talk of the currency falling through the floor has come to nothing.

Couldn’t agree more, looks the selling pressure seem to have abated for now. Good day today.

[Maverick]

Couldn’t agree more, looks the selling pressure seem to have abated for now. Good day today.
There was never any selling pressure, there was just no buying interest. just like every other early/ mid winter. Early next month the HLG buyer starts to awaken.

[emveha]

Some more concurrence ahead: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11518874

[Maverick]

Cheers for your contribution emveha. One of the many good things about this forum is all the eyes and ears out there reporting in stuff the`ve picked up from around. This article however is a little old , H& M arrived October 2016. I still stand by my prediction made 3 months ago that they will disappear into the retail graveyard because of their large store format and cheaper clothing.Wrong so far.... HLG on the other hand seem to have figured the optimum "small and Neat " size. Even there flagship stores in Wellies and CHCH aren't too big.

[mikeybycrikey]

This article however is a little old , H& M arrived October 2016.

That article might be a little old but I expect that emveha meant to post this article from yesterday: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12062610

H&M opening in Commercial Bay on the cnr of Queen and Custom St. Right in the heart of downtown, later this year.

[percy]

Cheers for your contribution emveha. One of the many good things about this forum is all the eyes and ears out there reporting in stuff the`ve picked up from around. This article however is a little old , H& M arrived October 2016. I still stand by my prediction made 3 months ago that they will disappear into the retail graveyard because of their large store format and cheaper clothing.Wrong so far.... HLG on the other hand seem to have figured the optimum "small and Neat " size. Even there flagship stores in Wellies and CHCH aren't too big.
I share your views.

[JeremyALD]

H&M in Sylvia Park is very popular. I have no doubt H&M will do fine, but I don't think that will come of the expense of HLG. They will never have the same reach as Hallenstein Glassons in NZ. And also so many men's retailers are going under that there's plenty of business left for those smart enough

[emveha]

That article might be a little old but I expect that emveha meant to post this article from yesterday: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12062610


Dear me, how time flies. But yes, that one.

[winner69]

StatsNZ Retail Card Spend May

Apparel down 3.8% v May 2017 following a 2.4% decline in April

Indicates a 'softish' market for likes of Hallensteins and Glassons

But no worries as both are killing the competition and making big market share gains

[peat]

StatsNZ Retail Card Spend May

Apparel down 3.8% v May 2017 following a 2.4% decline in April

Indicates a 'softish' market for likes of Hallensteins and Glassons

But no worries as both are killing the competition and making big market share gains

hey winner you make a lot of post like this....eg such and such a fact then no worries, and then some expansive positivity.
to be honest to me they sound a bit sarcastic.... is that what you intend or not?

[Maverick]

StatsNZ Retail Card Spend May

Apparel down 3.8% v May 2017 following a 2.4% decline in April

Indicates a 'softish' market for likes of Hallensteins and Glassons

But no worries as both are killing the competition and making big market share gains

Cheers for that W69. 2 winters ago the average 5 winter month apparel NZ spend was 307.8 mill and HLG made 6.9 mill NPAT, last winter the ave spend for the same 5 months was 306.4 mill (down 0.5%)and HLG made $8.1 mil NPAT (up 17.4%). The first winter month sales of this year is 304 mil so quite a bit down. As hungry as we all are for this kind of "heads up" there really isn't any correlation between NZ apparel spend and HLG`s NPAT. The only enemies I've observed for HLG as stated before are the USD and an unseasonably warm winter. Obviously no worries about the USD or NZ being too warm right now. Not sure about Melbourne`s temp but anything under 25c feels cold to them so should be ok.

[winner69]

Cheers for that W69. 2 winters ago the average 5 winter month apparel NZ spend was 307.8 mill and HLG made 6.9 mill NPAT, last winter the ave spend for the same 5 months was 306.4 mill (down 0.5%)and HLG made $8.1 mil NPAT (up 17.4%). The first winter month sales of this year is 304 mil so quite a bit down. As hungry as we all are for this kind of "heads up" there really isn't any correlation between NZ apparel spend and HLG`s NPAT. The only enemies I've observed for HLG as stated before are the USD and an unseasonably warm winter. Obviously no worries about the USD or NZ being too warm right now. Not sure about Melbourne`s temp but anything under 25c feels cold to them so should be ok.

Correct Naverick but there is a very strong correlation between HLG H2 NZ sales and these card spend sales for the corresponding periods.

In 2015, 2016 and 2017 HLG second half sales in NZ have basically grown in line with card spend. There ‘market share’ on this numbers has remained about 5.0%. Essentially if card spend is a de facto market size HLG stores haven’t grown market share.

As you are no doubt aware npat is also impacted by other things like margins and expense. The npat figures you mention include these factors....as well as including what happened in Australia.

So if anything the ‘heads up’ from that card spend data is that HLG NZ sales in H2 this year possibly might not be as robust as some think. Nothing else than that ....and top line growth is a key driver of profit growth

Hopefully margins are still improving and expenses remain under control and Aussie is still booming .¿if so no worries about the expected record profit being reported

[winner69]

Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake

HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods

Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while


Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through

[winner69]

A few months before the next whopper of a divie

But NZD has dropped below USD69 cents and even lower in Australia. Could go lower still. Makes life a bit difficult for HLG

Just saying

[Beagle]

NZD holding just above 69 cents according to ANZ securities this morning. Still in the multi year band of 69-74 cents and I am sure HLG use forward cover to buy their currency forward when it pops up from time to time and mange this extremely well, just like they manage the rest of their business.

[Maverick]

Cold wet and windy outside so a bit bored so pulled this together foir completeness sake

HLG NZ sales (exc Storm) as a share of Stats NZ Retail Card Spend data aligned to HLG reporting periods

Share is up so far this year ...thats good and hopefully a start of a new trend after being pretty flat for a while


Maverick ..as a heads up Card Spend down 1.5% this period .... incraesed share should pull HLG through
Nice work Winner. Looking at the table you've produced HLG recent success is based on increased market share. the card spend seems pretty consistent but irrelevant. The card spend is consistently up in H1 then down proportionally in H2. interestingly HLG slightly more often than not post bigger profits in the second half of each year, when the NZcard spend is down.
The huge recent profit boost in NZ recently aligns with a sudden quite significantly improved market share. The question is ,is the improved market share (therefore profit )sustainable?
-i personally think the online platform is a significant boost , sustainable and growing.
-the choice of offerings for their targeted custom ares has been spot on. sustainable under current directors and staff but potentially fickle.
-Decrease of competition. Sustainable.

So despite a massive boost to recent profitability, it seems to me this puppy is going to sustain its new profitable level into the medium term at least. Then the market will then have to accept it hasn't been a one off and rerate the share price up another dollar or so to justify those juicy divis.

[winner69]

Maverick - card spend is relevant as it gives one an idea of how the apparel market is going in NZ and as such how HLG NZ sales might be faring

HLG make generally make about the same or slightly less in H2 v H1

Drivers of changes in profitabilty are how much more stuff they sell, are margins getting better or worse and how much expenses (cost of doing business)are increasing

Table below shows these components of the change in profitability for each of the recent half years compared to the corresponding period the year before (ie H118 v H117 etc)

Interesting - at least I think so

Selling more is key but margins have both negative and positive impacts ....and the cost of doing business (more stores main driver) going up quite a lot eh. I'd watch that expense line in future.

[DarkHorse]

Invaluable analysis thank you W69! I'm still a keen holder but will also be watching the expense line.

[winner69]

If anybody bothered to look at the table I posted yesterday they would have noticed that improved margins have made a pretty significant contribution to the growth in profit

Don’t expect such a large increase in H218 was H217 margins were pretty good.

Selling more and more stuff is the key from here on in ....while keeping expenses under control

Just saying

[winner69]

Kathmandu on fire both here and in Aussie

Bodes well for HLG

Wonder what the share price might be closer to divie time

Might need to buy back in .... hopefully time it before they come out with their good news

[couta1]

Kathmandu on fire both here and in Aussie

Bodes well for HLG

Wonder what the share price might be closer to divie time

Might need to buy back in .... hopefully time it before they come out with their good news SP will be over $5, just go long, no worries for the foreseeable future.

[dreamcatcher]

Hallenstein Glasson store closed in Westcity Mall Henderson

[Beagle]

Hallenstein Glasson store closed in Westcity Mall Henderson

Judging by the wide plethora of a certain type of shop, (can't name the type for risk of offending someone), that mall has been going slowly backwards for a while in my opinion.

Actually speaking of trends I was out at the new Silverdale mall the other day and noticed a Mazda shop in the mall...that's Mazda vehicles...who would have thought ?

[winner69]

SP will be over $5, just go long, no worries for the foreseeable future.

Only 5 bucks

Seeing such phrases seem to be common here ....you not taking the piss are you?

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12077292

Kathmandu sales ahead of plan and margins also. Winter gear flying out the door. Unless you're living in Samoa or somewhere similar I think its pretty clear to all that we've got the makings of a bitterly cold winter this time, for perhaps the first time in the few years.

[peat]

unless of course everyone is going to get dad-cardies from the op-shop in Gizzie ala Clarke Gayford
9763

[Ninefingers]

Got myself a nice warm Hallensteins hoodie for winter. Good price, well made, very cosy. Will keep my toasty until next divi...although the share price is a nice winter warmer too. Another thing I've been noticing, being now well familiarised with the branding, is how much HLG product is out there, seems to be very popular. Even my partner who is very fashion conscious and usually (to my dismay) buys from small NZ & Aus boutiques has been buying a few things from Glassons and commenting on the good quality. Looking forward to the Gizzie dad cardie copy to hit the shelves at HLG ;)

[Maverick]

Well fellas, looks like the hibernating season has finished. It's about now to safely (if there is such a thing) to board the train for spring with the fall literally behind us. I'm personally very happy everything is well in HLG land and all the signs are excellent. Fabulous cold weather, USD ok, and no telling clearance sales from ANYONE. That means margins are intact. Despite all of this there is just soooo much time in the information void of HLG that even as HLG s biggest fan there is room for just a wee bit of doubt to creep in... a very healthy thing to have to I might add...but for any one who missed it Kathmandu has just had a fabulous profit upgrade for every reason That applies to HLG. Namely their margins increased on the increased same stores sales. Their aussy stores are roaring ,even better than here. They haven't had to discount their wares too soon.
So unless everyone has just started mountain climbing ,you can't really get more confirmation that things are good in the hood. Whatever the next few months SP might do for HLG it seems clear the result in November will be stunning.

[couta1]

Only 5 bucks

Seeing such phrases seem to be common here ....you not taking the piss are you? No mate you read it wrong, I said over $5. PS-I couldn't say over $6 as I would be accused of blatant ramping.

[dreamcatcher]

"New Zealand business confidence plunged to a seven-month low in June with retail most gloomy as costs, credit and capacity weigh on firms"

Company has good management with long trading history but certainly not invincible with fickle shopping public & plunging NZ dollar. The fuel tax introduced this weekend may provide further headwinds going forward.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1806/S00662/nz-business-confidence-drops-again-in-june.htm

[Joshuatree]

Did my bit today and bought a smoke blue panel print T-shirt for $10 at their up to 70% off sale today.

[dreamcatcher]

Did my bit today and bought a smoke blue panel print T-shirt for $10 at their up to 70% off sale today.

Unable to do my bit as my store in Henderson closed, but I did fill the Hybrid's tank with petrol should last a month and hybrids charge themselves as you drive.

[winner69]

"New Zealand business confidence plunged to a seven-month low in June with retail most gloomy as costs, credit and capacity weigh on firms"

Company has good management with long trading history but certainly not invincible with fickle shopping public & plunging NZ dollar. The fuel tax introduced this weekend may provide further headwinds going forward.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1806/S00662/nz-business-confidence-drops-again-in-june.htm

But that family support stuff outlined on the TRA Turners threads will help HLG stores ( not all will go on cars ...let’s buy some clothes as well)

[dreamcatcher]

But that family support stuff outlined on the TRA Turners threads will help HLG stores ( not all will go on cars ...let’s buy some clothes as well)

TRA should import more Hybrids as believe they are cheap alternatives 75 dollars of gas = 900-1000 kms and no plug-in charging required

[Beagle]

"New Zealand business confidence plunged to a seven-month low in June with retail most gloomy as costs, credit and capacity weigh on firms"

Company has good management with long trading history but certainly not invincible with fickle shopping public & plunging NZ dollar. The fuel tax introduced this weekend may provide further headwinds going forward.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1806/S00662/nz-business-confidence-drops-again-in-june.htm


Consumers care not for business confidence, that affects capital item spending like on a new fleet of trucks. The new families package kicks off next week.
Mr and Mrs Joe average with 2 kids earning $90K between them and getting accommodation supplement will be $90 per week better off and some beneficiaries paying high rent will be over $200 a week better off so instead of buying second hand clothes from the Salvation army store...

Yes the dollar is lower but I don't think people should be overly fixated with the current low spot rate...most purchasing is done using forward cover.
Business as usual.

[macduffy]

Yes the dollar is lower but I don't think people should be overly fixated with the current low spot rate...most purchasing is done using forward cover.

True, but the lower NZD/higher cost of forward cover will kick in eventually. Next summer's stock, perhaps?

[Beagle]

True, but the lower NZD/higher cost of forward cover will kick in eventually. Next summer's stock, perhaps?

Agreed but see above post regarding the size of the families package and keep in mind an extra $90 a week or $200 a week is a LOT on extra weekly incoming funds for those currently spending 101% of what they presently get. Yes some things are going to cost more due to the drop in the exchange rate and fuel levies but the net effect is there's a lot of families going to be in a much better position.

[Beagle]

Internet going to kill retailers ? I don't think so https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12078673
The malls are cunning and morphing into entertainment center's with retail, multiple dining options, picture theatre's, pubs e.t.c.

[winner69]

Internet going to kill retailers ? I don't think so https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12078673
The malls are cunning and morphing into entertainment center's with retail, multiple dining options, picture theatre's, pubs e.t.c.

Better take Mrs beagle to the food hall / pub at the mall instead of that place you go to at sky city .....probably nicer as well

[winner69]

They must have discovered Glassons

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australian-shoppers-are-coming-back-splashing-out-on-clothing-20180704-p4zpg7.html

[sb9]

Hoping for a trading/market (positive) update from these guys soon, last year it was on 1st Aug.

[Beagle]

Better take Mrs beagle to the food hall / pub at the mall instead of that place you go to at sky city .....probably nicer as well

Lynnmall been very nicely done up and expanded since Kiwi Property took over a while back. Lots of nice new restaurants with slow service that serve you on nice big plates with small serving sizes at high prices and new Reading cinema complex too. Thankfully there's still the regular food-hall. Glassons always seems busy there as does Hallensteins store.
Good retail stat's out the other day. Happy holder.

[iceman]

Better take Mrs beagle to the food hall / pub at the mall instead of that place you go to at sky city .....probably nicer as well

Winner first he takes cheap flights with Mrs Beagle to Queenstown, now you want him to go to food halls rather than restaurants. What next ? Cheap unsafe cars from Turners ?

[Beagle]

Winner first he takes cheap flights with Mrs Beagle to Queenstown, now you want him to go to food halls rather than restaurants. What next ? Cheap unsafe cars from Turners ?

LOL Not on your life. Mrs Beagle likes new 5 star safety rated cars and nice buffet feeds at the top of the gondola at Queenstown but we will definitely pick our seats next time with seat select, after unceremoniously being given the very last two very cramped back seats on AIR's A320 last time.... which were so cramped poor Mrs Beagle ended up with an anxiety / claustrophobia attack and needed oxygen. By the way...These old dogs reckon that's the best buffet in New Zealand...just quietly.... and then there's the view !!!!!!!!

[percy]

The appointment of Mary Devine to the board is interesting.
She has been at a lot of places.
Never stayed long anywhere though,which raises a red flag to me.

[BlackPeter]

The appointment of Mary Devine to the board is interesting.
She has been at a lot of places.
Never stayed long anywhere though,which raises a red flag to me.

Well, yes - 7 concurrent directorships (including being MD of her consulting business). Raises the question whether she can spend enough bandwidth on any of them (and let me guess which one will have priority if bandwidth is at a premium).

As well - wasn't she involved in bringing Top shop to NZ? How did that go?

[percy]

Well, yes - 7 concurrent directorships (including being MD of her consulting business). Raises the question whether she can spend enough bandwidth on any of them (and let me guess which one will have priority if bandwidth is at a premium).

As well - wasn't she involved in bringing Top shop to NZ? How did that go?

A very expensive disaster.

[winner69]

That Mary is an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit

That’s pretty good credentials

[percy]

That Mary is an Officier of the New Zealand Order of Merit

That’s pretty good credentials

Really.????
I can think of a number of dubious knights and dames.
I also recall a great number of failed companies, that won prestigious awards before they collapsed.
Great CEO's do not go from company to company in my experience.

[BlackPeter]

That Mary is an Officer of the New Zealand Order of Merit

That’s pretty good credentials

LOL - didn't realize you can be that cynical ....

[winner69]

LOL - didn't realize you can be that cynical ....


...probably thought that Director Karen needed a bit of female companionship on the Board

At least with an ONZM appointment deserved on merit

One thing good about HLG is at least they have a few people on the Board who know a bit about fashion retailing .....and now a better representation of the realisation their customers are of both sexes.

[Beagle]

...probably thought that Director Karen needed a bit of female companionship on the Board

At least with an ONZM appointment deserved on merit

One thing good about HLG is at least they have a few people on the Board who know a bit about fashion retailing .....and now a better representation of the realisation their customers are of both sexes.

More diversity on the board...I thought you'd be thrilled.
Anyway...we haven't talked much about earnings for a while. SP holding up well even though next dividend isn't till December and even with the currency out of its range that's its been trading in for the last few years. Drawing some strength from Kathmandu perhaps ?

[winner69]

So so close to 5 bucks it’s inevitiable that it will get there very soon

Maybe tomorrow

[sb9]

So so close to 5 bucks it’s inevitiable that it will get there very soon

Maybe tomorrow

Happened today itself, not on market but off market..



9
18
12:38:21 pm
500
300,000
$1,500,000
Off market

[peat]

Happened today itself, not on market but off market..



9
18
12:38:21 pm
500
300,000
$1,500,000
Off market




none of my sources are showing that specific trade and yet their total volume includes it

:confused:

[Beagle]

Sure sign that those with inside knowledge know that winter sales are really pumping.

[couta1]

Sure sign that those with inside knowledge know that winter sales are really pumping. My best performing share, who would have thought that clothing would outperform milk.

[Beagle]

My best performing share, who would have thought that clothing would outperform milk.

Now that management have jettisoned the problem storm brand I figure they have plenty of energy and focus to really drive growth in Australia. Huge market and huge potential.

[winner69]

Just about there

[Beagle]

Its been a great couple of years to be a HLG shareholder, (and some people told us HLG was toast). Don't think this comparative chart includes dividends so HLG done better but not too shabby for Kathmandu shareholders in the last 2 years either !9810 HLG in orange.

[Beagle]

Just about there

We are now and its trading close to the recent multi year high of $5.14. Smart money is saying HLG's recent record growth rate in Australia was not a one off phenomenon and is tracking along very nicely indeed. Disc: Happy holder.

[percy]

This post does not have a point,just interesting figures to me..
HLG market cap at $5.00 is $298,245,305,.PE is 12.84 and yield is 7.4%
TRA market cap at $3.16 is $267,976,254,.PE is 10.80 and yield is 4.91%.

[Beagle]

Those being net yields eh Percy. Grossing them up for full imputation credits using your figures we get (7.4 / 0.72) = 10.28% and (4.91 / 0.72) = 6.82%.

Something lovely and tangible that I've always liked about getting decent dividends...

[percy]

Yes net yields as quoted by ANZ Securities.
Now for a bit of fun,you have just won $300mil on Lotto,and you were trying to buy the whole of either TRA or HLG, which would you buy.?,
Or which one do you think will reach a market cap of $500 mil first.?

[winner69]

Yes net yields as quoted by ANZ Securities.
Now for a bit of fun,you have just won $300mil on Lotto,and you were trying to buy the whole of either TRA or HLG, which would you buy.?,
Or which one do you think will reach a market cap of $500 mil first.?

If you didn’t mind taking on plenty of debt as well the answers obvious

[Beagle]

Yes net yields as quoted by ANZ Securities.
Now for a bit of fun,you have just won $300mil on Lotto,and you were trying to buy the whole of either TRA or HLG, which would you buy.?,
Or which one do you think will reach a market cap of $500 mil first.?


Well I would think you've got no chance whatsoever of prying Tim Glassons 20% stake off him at $5, probably not even a slim chance at $6 so there's your first problem right there...

[percy]

Well I would think you've got no chance whatsoever of prying Tim Glassons 20% stake off him at $5, probably not even a slim chance at $6 so there's your first problem right there...

You missed the whole point of the exercise.
It is an exercise I find useful to my investing skills.

[Beagle]

You missed the whole point of the exercise.
It is an exercise I find useful to my investing skills.

No mate I didn't miss it, just dodged the question because its too hard. I can't decide so I have a bob or two each way :) I think they both have very sound growth prospects and those thinking HLG is just a cyclical retailer at the top of the current cycle are completely overlooking recent matters regarding the development of the Glassons brand in Australia which offers huge potential going forward. For what its worth I have slightly more in TNR but that's come about because I wanted to be up the sunny end of the tent :D...seriously though TNR's sales are more needs based so possibly more resilient to a downturn and probably more of a beneficiary from this huge lurch to the political left that the country is enduring. Who knows which is better, what are your thoughts ?

[LAC]

mmmmm I would go with the more diversified business. Especially if they own some dirt.

[percy]

No mate I didn't miss it, just dodged the question because its too hard. I can't decide so I have a bob or two each way :) I think they both have very sound growth prospects and those thinking HLG is just a cyclical retailer at the top of the current cycle are completely overlooking recent matters regarding the development of the Glassons brand in Australia which offers huge potential going forward. For what its worth I have slightly more in TNR but that's come about because I wanted to be up the sunny end of the tent :D...seriously though TNR's sales are more needs based so possibly more resilient to a downturn and probably more of a beneficiary from this huge lurch to the political left that the country is enduring. Who knows which is better, what are your thoughts ?

I often imagen companies sitting in a car yard.I can buy that one for $500 mil,that one for $250 mil and those two for $100mil each.Which is the best buy?
So I place a lot on the market cap of companies I am considering.I find it a good place to start my research.
Comparing HLG to TRA throws up some interesting comparisons.Both are very well run businesses. I will leave it to others to do their own comparisons,and come up with their own conclusions.Only hope everyone enjoys the exercise,and learns more about investing.

[IAK]

Good luck you’re going to need it. “Caldwell, is focused on steering Storm through its subsequent "divorce" from Hallenstein Glasson, after her own company, Blackstar Holdings, bought it in May for an undisclosed sum.” http://nzh.tw/12088303

[sb9]

Looking pretty solid, must be due for trading update/upgrade pretty soon I reckon...

[winner69]

Hlg share price defying falling consumer confidence in NZ and general malaise around Australia retail scene

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f44dae35/consumer-confidence-falls-further-in-july.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Consumer%20confidence%20falls%20furth er%20in%20July&utm_content=Consumer%20confidence%20falls%20furthe r%20in%20July+CID_93bab04ccb20ba8b36c04fabcf423ffc&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlef44dae35consum er-confidence-falls-further-in-julyhtml

That’s good ...might even see 6 bucks one day ...nearly got there a few years ago and you would think that how good Glassons going in that huge Australian 6 bucks is a cert

[peat]

but note the last paragraph

"This far into an economic cycle the low-hanging fruit has typically been picked, and a number of growth drivers are fading. But that’s a far cry from calling time on the economic expansion."

[winner69]

Another year passed by for HLG and what a year it’s been ......booming sales all year and no sign of any let up

The new year F19 will be just as good I reckon

Probably tell us next week how successful F18 was ..... npat $30m odd sounds fine

[LAC]

Got to admit I have never bought anything from Hallensteins in about 10 odd years, but went in there last week to see how the business is tracking (being a shareholder) and really liked what I saw. Place was busy as, I ended up buying 3 pants and 4 shirts for work and with the online voucher I received I will probably get a coat for work. They have a decent range of clothing for all ages at reasonable prices. I think the results will be good next week

[Beagle]

Another year passed by for HLG and what a year it’s been ......booming sales all year and no sign of any let up

The new year F19 will be just as good I reckon

Probably tell us next week how successful F18 was ..... npat $30m odd sounds fine

Last year they came out with their sales and profit estimate on 11 August. Market is saying it'll be a real ripper this year like Kathmandu.

[winner69]

Aussies taking an interest in HLG with Grahger a SSH

They sure can pick retail winners ...have a decent chunk of Lovisa

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/321759/283930.pdf

[winner69]

Reckon 6 bucks a certainty now ....with that Aussie endorsement

[Beagle]

Aussies taking an interest in HLG with Grahger a SSH

They sure can pick retail winners ...have a decent chunk of Lovisa

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/321759/283930.pdf


As cunning as a hungry Dingo.

[sb9]

Reckon 6 bucks a certainty now ....with that Aussie endorsement

They must have liked what they saw in Aus retail space with HLG operations.

[44wishlists]

Can someone tell me more who is Grahger Retail Security please?

[winner69]

Can someone tell me more who is Grahger Retail Security please?


A private investment company which takes significant positions in mainly retail companies

Lovisa, Specialty Fashion Group and Oliver’s Real Food to name a few

With those in their portfolio might not have been a great year for them

One of the owners is a big wig in the Melbourne racing scene.

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Bought some pretty good sweaters from here the other day.
Thinking of putting my hands in the shares too now... Anyone wanna give me a brief about why i should buy and why i should not?
Thanks

[janner]

Bought some pretty good sweaters from here the other day.
Thinking of putting my hands in the shares too now... Anyone wanna give me a brief about why i should buy and why i should not?
Thanks

No... DYOR. :-)))))

[Beagle]

Bought some pretty good sweaters from here the other day.
Thinking of putting my hands in the shares too now... Anyone wanna give me a brief about why i should buy and why i should not?
Thanks

Good brief is already contained in posts this year. Suggest you read from page 118 onwards wherein a lot of experienced investors have already invested a lot of their valuable time explaining why this is a good company. Happy holder.

[couta1]

Good brief is already contained in posts this year. Suggest you read from page 118 onwards wherein a lot of experienced investors have already invested a lot of their valuable time explaining why this is a good company. Happy holder. Yep, lots of spoon feeding going on toward watchers and non active forum members. When you find a stock you believe is good/undervalued, stand by your own conviction no matter what anyone on here says, load up and enjoy the ride. PS-Loaded since $3.39.

[winner69]

Hope you fast reader shouldhaveheld .......HLG costing you heaps more every hour you dilly dally around

Trust us .....its going to 6 bucks very soon

Reason why will be apparent in next day or two .....maybe it’s $33m and not about $30m as i thought it might be.

[h2so4]

Yep. If the sweater fits ......wear it.

[Beagle]

Hope you fast reader shouldhaveheld .......HLG costing you heaps more every hour you dilly dally around

Trust us .....its going to 6 bucks very soon

Reason why will be apparent in next day or two .....maybe it’s $33m and not about $30m as i thought it might be.

First half was $15.1m but its de rigueur these days to normalise everything so if we adjust this for the $1.7m charge taken against the Storm brand now sold we get normalized profit of $16.8m for the first half. Last year 54% of full year profit was earned in the first half so if we assume this pattern continues I get estimated normalised profit for the year of $31m.

On 59.6m shares this gives ~ 52 cps. Worth noting that Briscoes is currently trading on 12.8 times historical earnings and Kathmandu 13.7 times...
Not being a greedy hound... let's split the difference and call it a fair PE of 13.25...heck that's nearly $7 !

[Maverick]

I think we all agree its going to be a superb result. I like your maths Beagle and the winter season has been very conducive to continue the summers stunning result. Apart from a weaker USD everything is underpinning a great result.
On the USD ...I've tried to map a correlation between HLG profit and USD rise/fall rates. I know there is supposed to be that a weaker dollar is bad for importers. Try as I may to quantity this variable I can only conclude the USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.
Then chuck in the lastest KMD result as an indicator.

So that means nothing is in the way of HLG`s greatest profit ever.

[winner69]

.....
On the USD ...I've tried to map a correlation between HLG profit and USD rise/fall rates. I know there is supposed to be that a weaker dollar is bad for importers. Try as I may to quantity this variable i can only conclude the USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.




Great work maverick

We need to spread the word — USD dollar fluctuations , even when quite large, are irrelevant to HLG profits.

Guru Mark from Craig’s probably disagrees though

[h2so4]

I think we are being a tad conservative. There is plenty of growth left for HLG which isn’t reflected in the share price and we are not yet at the top of it’s business cycle.

[Patient Panda]

First half was $15.1m but its de rigueur these days to normalise everything so if we adjust this for the $1.7m charge taken against the Storm brand now sold we get normalized profit of $16.8m for the first half. Last year 54% of full year profit was earned in the first half so if we assume this pattern continues I get estimated normalised profit for the year of $31m.

On 59.6m shares this gives ~ 52 cps. Worth noting that Briscoes is currently trading on 12.8 times historical earnings and Kathmandu 13.7 times...
Not being a greedy hound... let's split the difference and call it a fair PE of 13.25...heck that's nearly $7 !

some nice analysis. Certainly a dollar of value there in the shareprice assuming a PE of around 12 which is where I would say is fair value. A nice 20% upside with just under 10% gross divi is a solid return.
Clothing space fairly volatile and very competitive but in the short/mid term which I think you guys are focused on its risk weighted return is beyond most others around.

disc; do not hold

[winner69]

Beagle .....doubled our money now I reckon

Not too bad for a year or twos work eh — especially when punters tried to talk us out of HLG seeing they were never going to be able to compete with those global behemoths and they were past their due by date and all that sort of stuff

[winner69]

I think we are being a tad conservative. There is plenty of growth left for HLG which isn’t reflected in the share price and we are not yet at the top of it’s business cycle.

....just didn’t want to get too excited .....F19 should be a boomer as well

[Beagle]

Beagle .....doubled our money now I reckon

Not too bad for a year or twos work eh — especially when punters tried to talk us out of HLG seeing they were never going to be able to compete with those global behemoths and they were past their due by date and all that sort of stuff

So many people were saying we were crazy buying under $3 a couple of years ago and retail was dead LOL

Key for me will be how they're going in Australia. If Glassons keeps growing strongly over there.... with the Aussie market being fives times the size the potential going forward could really surprise. Might see $7 next year. Be good if they hold back some of the dividend this year and invest into new Glassons stores in Aussie and supercharge the growth. Never thought I'd be encouraging a dividend hound type company to hold back on the dividends LOL.

[percy]

Maybe some correlation between currency and EBITDA margin. This seems to have broken down in the last couple of years. Brokers are forecasting a 14% margins for this year. I think management will have to be at the top of their game to fight against the currency tide.



Year
NZDUSD
EBITDA Margin
Change in Currency
Change in EBITDA Margin
Notes


2006
0.649732
15.49%





2007
0.736172
17.74%
13.30%
14.53%



2008
0.714949
14.32%
-2.88%
-19.28%



2009
0.635232
11.95%
-11.15%
-16.55%
Recession


2010
0.721623
13.96%
13.60%
16.82%



2011
0.792322
14.00%
9.80%
0.29%



2012
0.810275
15.58%
2.27%
11.29%
Included insurance payout


2013
0.8203
14.79%
1.24%
-5.07%
Management Blamed late start to winter


2014
0.8306
13.06%
1.26%
-11.70%
Management admitted poor product mix


2015
0.740516
14.31%
-10.85%
9.59%
Broker forecasts


2016
0.68

-8.17%





Least we forget.
Posted 04-07-2015

[Beagle]

Least we forget.
Posted 04-07-2015

Old data now.

[winner69]

Least we forget.
Posted 04-07-2015

Was a good analysis but noodles did note that the relationship may have broken down

That was a few years ago .....maverick would say it has

[couta1]

Least we forget.
Posted 04-07-2015

Old data now. Yep, keep loading the hay stack whilst the sun is shining, feed it out once the gloomy weather arrives.

[percy]

[QUOTE=Beagle;723782] Yep, keep loading the hay stack whilst the sun is shining, feed it out once the gloomy weather arrives.

A lot to be said for momentum investing.
Weather has been pretty good too.

[Patient Panda]

Least we forget.
Posted 04-07-2015


Wise words Percy. It may be old data but history often repeats and we can learn a lot from what might happen in the future from what has gone before. Theres a reason I’m not a holder.


good potential return in the short term but have to watch things too closely for my liking.

[BobbyMorocco]

Hope you fast reader shouldhaveheld .......HLG costing you heaps more every hour you dilly dally around

Trust us .....its going to 6 bucks very soon

Reason why will be apparent in next day or two .....maybe it’s $33m and not about $30m as i thought it might be.

Hey I thought you sold when it went below $4.50 back in May? Did you buy back in or were you just tricking? ;)

Anyway I think it's going to be $31m. Over the past five years HLG have historically had slightly greater profits in the second half of the year. Historically when the full year results have come out HLG has traded on a trailing PE of between 11.5 and 15.5, with 13 being about the average. Based on that this is going past $6.

I'm a bit gutted because I had an order in at $4.37 a couple of months back and I only just missed having it filled. There hasn't been many down days since then and now it's $1 more if I want to jump on board. Decisions, decisions.... but I think I'm leaning towards remaining on the sidelines and watching you guys have fun. As you say every day of dilly dallying around costs heaps. It's been that way for months and will probably continue that way for another few months at least. I'll probably be kicking myself in 6-12 months for sitting this one out.

Good luck, I hope you guys get a boomer result! :)

[BobbyMorocco]

Wise words Percy. It may be old data but history often repeats and we can learn a lot from what might happen in the future from what has gone before. Theres a reason I’m not a holder.


good potential return in the short term but have to watch things too closely for my liking.

Yeah, that's my thoughts too. This can rise and fall pretty quickly due to the low liquidity. I don't want to be trying to get to the exit at the same time everyone else is. Could almost be better sneaking out while nobody is looking???

[winner69]

Updated the old chart using $31m NPAT for F18. Daren't look into the future and put a $38m in for F19

Profits gone where they never have gone before -- and the share price hasn't reached a record high yet

The share price will be going where it's never been before in the next few months


Will the share price 'overshoot' like it has in the past when profits have boomed -- of course it well

Exciting eh

[Maverick]

[QUOTE=Patient Panda.......good potential return in the short term but have to watch things too closely for my liking.[/QUOTE]

I like watching things closely......and when the markets are closed I like watching the HLG reports VERY closely.��

[winner69]

One good thing is that I reckon that Aussie investor is still buying. They seem to like more than decent positions

They’ll have to keep paying more and more eh .....don’t think 6 bucks will be their limit

[h2so4]

One good thing is that I reckon that Aussie investor is still buying. They seem to like more than decent positions

They’ll have to keep paying more and more eh .....don’t think 6 bucks will be their limit

No so sure. Maybe a 50% discount is their limit.

[Beagle]

One good thing is that I reckon that Aussie investor is still buying. They seem to like more than decent positions

They’ll have to keep paying more and more eh .....don’t think 6 bucks will be their limit

You're on to it mate. That other Aussie stock that a few people LOV is on SUM really fancy PE now. Once people understand the growth potential for Glassons in Australia....BOOM ! Little birdie tells me they're opening a couple more stores over there in the next couple of months and that's just the start :D

[sb9]

You're on to it mate. That other Aussie stock that a few people LOV is on SUM really fancy PE now. Once people understand the growth potential for Glassons in Australia....BOOM ! Little birdie tells me they're opening a couple more stores over there in the next couple of months and that's just the start :D

Pretty close t an announcement from company anytime now and I'm sure the bean counters are double and triple checking the number before they put them out. $6 target is very achievable in short to medium term, especially if numbers are a boomer!!!

[RupertBear]

Pretty close t an announcement from company anytime now and I'm sure the bean counters are double and triple checking the number before they put them out. $6 target is very achievable in short to medium term, especially if numbers are a boomer!!!

If its not a boomer this is going to tank big time :mellow:

[winner69]

If its not a boomer this is going to tank big time :mellow:

Going up fast big time though eh Rups

That’s just on expected good result .....when they say another 20 cents divie that’ll add even more as punters will buy to get the divie .....they are the laggards, clever ones are already in.

[Beagle]

Going up fast big time though eh Rups

That’s just on expected good result .....when they say another 20 cents divie that’ll add even more as punters will buy to get the divie .....they are the laggards, clever ones are already in.

And when they start telling the market about all the new stores they're starting in Australia in FY19...

[winner69]

HLG share price hit $5.85 in May 2013 ..think that the highest it’s been this century

Should get there or exceed that again this week

Cool, no worries

[winner69]

When the much adored Di rejoined HLG in April 2016 the share price was about $3.00

When her departure was announced in Sept 2017 the share price was about $3.10

Today the share price is over $5.50

[ShouldHaveHeld]

lol i was hoping i could get in at a cheaper price.... instead it keeps going up

[Snow Leopard]

HLG share price hit $5.85 in May 2013 ..think that the highest it’s been this century

Should get there or exceed that again this week

Cool, no worries

9-Apr-2013 Closed on high of $5.85;
one year later
21-Mar-2014 Closed on low of $2.80.

But this time: tidak apa-apa!

[tim23]

Update must be close 11.8.17 and 9.8.16 so maybe tomorrow or Friday at latest?

[Beagle]

9-Apr-2013 Closed on high of $5.85;
one year later
21-Mar-2014 Closed on low of $2.80.

But this time: tidak apa-apa!

This time its different :)

[Beagle]

When the much adored Di rejoined HLG in April 2016 the share price was about $3.00

When her departure was announced in Sept 2017 the share price was about $3.10

Today the share price is over $5.50

Investors obviously really missing her lol

[Filthy]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/321952

[Beagle]

WOW 58% profit growth that's stunning ! Normalising this for the $1.7m charge taken on sale of storm this gives mid point guidance of just over $29m profit and while not quite as good as my estimate the other day it is still a stunning result. Best result ever ?

[BlackPeter]

Yep, not bad, but suppose its already fully priced in. No positive surprises - result is even a wee bit below the HY expectations. I think SP more likely to drop today ... bye bye $6 :crying:

[winner69]

WOW 58% profit growth that's stunning ! Normalising this for the $1.7m charge taken on sale of storm this gives mid point guidance of just over $29m profit and while not quite as good as my estimate the other day it is still a stunning result. Best result ever ?

Truly STUNNING

And weren’t they rather modest and downbeat.....and no hype/buzzwords

Like the bit “future cash flow is projected to be positive.”. Completely meaningless but heck gives punters the warm fuzzies.

The Aussie shareholder will be happy and probably buy heaps more and collect a huge dividend

[Beagle]

Yep, not bad, but suppose its already fully priced in. No positive surprises - result is even a wee bit below the HY expectations. I think SP more likely to drop today ... bye bye $6 :crying:

Tough crowd to please. 58% profit growth this year on top of 25% last year. Second half profit this year at mid forecast point is $12.25m compared to $8.09m last year so 51.4% profit growth in second half which shows momentum from the stunning summer has carried through well into the second half. Weather conditions were extremely favorable in the first half as was currency but second half performance is still very strong despite less favorable tailwinds from currency and weather. Very strong result and augers very well for FY19.

[percy]

Absolutely stunning.!!!

[Everwood]

I'm happy with the result, but do you think they will increase the dividend to 20 cents to match the half yearly dividend?

[Arbroath]

Absolutely stunning.!!!

Have sold 1/3rd of mine at $5.45 ave. Could be wrong but think this is a peak profitability year with lower NZD starting to impact margins. Happy to hold the other 2/3rds for now at a $2.25 average and keep collecting the dividends...

[Beagle]

I'm happy with the result, but do you think they will increase the dividend to 20 cents to match the half yearly dividend?

$12.25m second half profit / 59.6m shares = EPS of 20.56 cps. They held back 10 cps of free cash flow (profit plus depreciation was 30 cps first half) from the first half result to pay for pending new store openings in Australia. If they don't pay 20 cps they'll go close in my opinion and if they hold some back its for more store expansion in Australia so its a win either way.

[winner69]

I'm happy with the result, but do you think they will increase the dividend to 20 cents to match the half yearly dividend?

Might even go higher ...that be good eh

Even if 40 cents for the year guys like Snoopy and his expected return of 7%(I think) would be happy to pay $7 for HLG

Wonder if Snoopy has any HLG in his portfolio

[Beagle]

Truly STUNNING

And weren’t they rather modest and downbeat.....and no hype/buzzwords

Like the bit “future cash flow is projected to be positive.”. Completely meaningless but heck gives punters the warm fuzzies.

The Aussie shareholder will be happy and probably buy heaps more and collect a huge dividend

They have VERY deep pockets and really LOV strongly growing retail stocks !

[Patient Panda]

They have VERY deep pockets and really LOV strongly growing retail stocks !


HLG and LOV two very different kettles of fish.

[winner69]

They have VERY deep pockets and really LOV strongly growing retail stocks !

That’s why they LOVe them both

[Beagle]

HLG and LOV two very different kettles of fish.

Young women like things that make them shine...clothes, jewelry, shoes, make-up, you name it. Maybe not all that different.

[winner69]

Young women like things that make them shine...clothes, jewelry, shoes, make-up, you name it. Maybe not all that different.

OK ...complimentary then

That Specialty Fashions in Aussie that Grahger have a holding in has got rid of all their dud brands (Glassons killed them ha ha) and putting everything into City Chic which is a market leader in the plus-size women’s apparel market with strong online global sales.

Even more complimentary / diversified retail portfolio

[jg8512]

many comments about the stunning increase in profits. Which they were. But a 16% increase in revenue. Whoa. To provide a point of comparison, KMD, which is performing well, said its revenues for the ~11 month period to 24 June (July year end) were up 7.7%. HLG whacked it out of the park.

[sb9]

many comments about the stunning increase in profits. Which they were. But a 16% increase in revenue. Whoa. To provide a point of comparison, KMD, which is performing well, said its revenues for the ~11 month period to 24 June (July year end) were up 7.7%. HLG whacked it out of the park.

Well said, they've done extremely well to come out with those sort of numbers.

[winner69]

many comments about the stunning increase in profits. Which they were. But a 16% increase in revenue. Whoa. To provide a point of comparison, KMD, which is performing well, said its revenues for the ~11 month period to 24 June (July year end) were up 7.7%. HLG whacked it out of the park.

Revenues up 16% and npat up 58%

Management have done wonders improving Gross Margin (several key factors affect this) as well as managing the cost of doing business.

Npat margin increased from 7.4% to just under 10.0% ......a whopping 2.6% points ...on $277m sales that’s a cool $7m of efficiencies / productivity achieved (and profits are up about $10m so a decent chunk of the gain)

Good selling heaps more stuff but Margin/expense management is just as 8mportant. HLG have been masters of this for years.

Pretty fantastic eh.

[Beagle]

Agreed. Truly stunning sales growth. As expected our new Australian guru institutional investor is happy to soak up all the shares they can pry from weak holders hands at ~ $5.50. They must be LOV ing gabbing such a bargain off gullible Kiwi holders who can't understand the outstanding growth potential Glassons has in Australia.

[BlackPeter]

Tough crowd to please. 58% profit growth this year on top of 25% last year. Second half profit this year at mid forecast point is $12.25m compared to $8.09m last year so 51.4% profit growth in second half which shows momentum from the stunning summer has carried through well into the second half. Weather conditions were extremely favorable in the first half as was currency but second half performance is still very strong despite less favorable tailwinds from currency and weather. Very strong result and augers very well for FY19.

I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.

[Patient Panda]

Young women like things that make them shine...clothes, jewelry, shoes, make-up, you name it. Maybe not all that different.


I’d be crazy to say that isn’t true ! Was talking about the economics of the businesses as well as past performance. Nevertheless an amazing result.

[Maverick]

I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.
Lots of respect for you BP but I disagree with you on this one They have shown that the result wasn't just on the back of one bumper summer. Today at $5.50 the market affords the company a PE of 12
-It has no debt,
-Great and growing online presence,
-Stunning increasing sales - in order the rates of 6 monthly (winter /summer seasons) increases on the pcp are 9%, 5%,19%, and today's winter PCP increase 13%
-Dominant incumbent player in its well targeted market.
-Large imputed, consistent and now growing dividends.

But wait there's more!.... Now we have expansion happening as we speak on a proven formula in Aussie. Surely HLG should have a PE under these circumstances of at least 14-15.
Even at the historical PE of 13 the share price should be $5.95 today. So IMO the market has not fully price in the result yet.

[iceman]

Lots of respect for you BP but I disagree with you on this one They have shown that the result wasn't just on the back of one bumper summer. Today at $5.50 the market affords the company a PE of 12
-It has no debt,
-Great and growing online presence,
-Stunning increasing sales - in order the rates of 6 monthly (winter /summer seasons) increases on the pcp are 9%, 5%,19%, and today's winter PCP increase 13%
-Dominant incumbent player in its well targeted market.
-Large imputed, consistent and now growing dividends.

But wait there's more!.... Now we have expansion happening as we speak on a proven formula in Aussie. Surely HLG should have a PE under these circumstances of at least 14-15.
Even at the historical PE of 13 the share price should be $5.95 today. So IMO the market has not fully price in the result yet.

Well put Maverick and pretty much my thoughts as well.

[Arbroath]

Lots of respect for you BP but I disagree with you on this one They have shown that the result wasn't just on the back of one bumper summer. Today at $5.50 the market affords the company a PE of 12
-It has no debt,
-Great and growing online presence,
-Stunning increasing sales - in order the rates of 6 monthly (winter /summer seasons) increases on the pcp are 9%, 5%,19%, and today's winter PCP increase 13%
-Dominant incumbent player in its well targeted market.
-Large imputed, consistent and now growing dividends.

But wait there's more!.... Now we have expansion happening as we speak on a proven formula in Aussie. Surely HLG should have a PE under these circumstances of at least 14-15.
Even at the historical PE of 13 the share price should be $5.95 today. So IMO the market has not fully price in the result yet.

There is no doubt HLG are very good at what they do and without question my favourite retail stock in NZ due to no debt and good management. BUT don't get to starry eyed as the NZD is below 67c and this will start to hurt them. The weakening NZD will have had no impact on FY18 and might not hurt H1 19 too much but if it stays here by H2 19 profitability will slide.

My model forecast $276m sales and $26.7m npat so pretty close for FY18 looks more like $21-22m npat for FY19 if the NZD stays around 66c. Appreciate all the unknowns at this early stage, and HLG will continue to execute better than most but I've sold a third because the risk-return at these levels is not as compelling to me. $22m for FY19 put them on 15x at $5.50.


I'd like to be mocked wholeheartedly in 12 months time as I still have quite a few on board....

[RupertBear]

I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.

It certainly looks from the markets reaction today you were right BP ;)

[h2so4]

There has to be a couple more bucks in it at least.....ah well if it goes to custard I’ll be happy with the dividend.

[percy]

Retail is funny.
Get it right and it goes your way.Fast moving lines means more room for more new stock.No old stock taking up space, and having to be cleared out.Margins are good.
HLG have the momentum.
Retail is sad.
Get it wrong and it turns to custard straight away.
And it can go from right to wrong very quickly.

[h2so4]

I agree. HLG could fail and fall off the face of the earth. A watchful eye is needed for growth and for problems on a daily basis.

[44wishlists]

I agree. HLG could fail and fall off the face of the earth. A watchful eye is needed for growth and for problems on a daily basis.

The comment you made is as good as the tweet by Mark Lister earlier on ATM. I think you can join him at Craig's now.

[h2so4]

many comments about the stunning increase in profits. Which they were. But a 16% increase in revenue. Whoa. To provide a point of comparison, KMD, which is performing well, said its revenues for the ~11 month period to 24 June (July year end) were up 7.7%. HLG whacked it out of the park.

Yes an extra $40m in sales could dramatically change the face of HLG.

[h2so4]

The comment you made is as good as the tweet by Mark Lister earlier on ATM. I think you can join him at Craig's now.

Yes your right.

[moka]

I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the price continues to rise after today. It started to go up in the afternoon. After watching the market for the last few days I think the sellers will want more than $5.50, and the buyers will have to pay more.
There were 5 big off market trades today totaling just over half a million dollars on $1.15m turnover.

[Beagle]

Yep, not bad, but suppose its already fully priced in. No positive surprises - result is even a wee bit below the HY expectations. I think SP more likely to drop today ... bye bye $6 :crying:

The price didn't fall and as I expected the buyer, (probably that Australian institution) is happy to mop up those people who were weak holders. I don't think its bye bye to $6 either but time will tell and I'll reserve judgement until we get some commentary around the result and what their plans are for Glassons Australian expansion. Normalised profit adding back charge for storm exit of $1.7m gives ~ $29m for the year. 29 / 59.6 = 48.66 eps. $5.53 / 0.4866 = PE of just 11.4. Kathmandu is on a historical PE of 13.7 and Briscoes about 12.5. HLG is growing considerably faster than either of them. It hasn't fallen and I don't think its going to anytime soon. Prospects for growth in Australia with Glassons at least as good as prospects for growth with Kathmandu and Briscoes in my opinion.

Lower $Kiwi could be a headwind going forward.

[Beagle]

Been thinking about things and I think taking into account RBNZ's move yesterday and the weakness of our economy relative to our trading partners there is a real risk of material downside to the currency even from here (about 66 cents U.S.). Great company with excellent prospects that is likely to face material increasing cost pressure with the currency, (albeit mitigated by the fact that a lot of sales are in Australia which doesn't have the currency weakness situation) Its been a great ride from just under $3 about 2 years ago. Today I decided to sell half and have a free ride with the rest.

[Maverick]

Been thinking about things and I think taking into account RBNZ's move yesterday and the weakness of our economy relative to our trading partners there is a real risk of material downside to the currency even from here (about 66 cents U.S.). Great company with excellent prospects that is likely to face material increasing cost pressure with the currency, (albeit mitigated by the fact that a lot of sales are in Australia which doesn't have the currency weakness situation) Its been a great ride from just under $3 about 2 years ago. Today I decided to sell half and have a free ride with the rest.

Appreciate the openness on your moves and your reasons. Love your work !

[percy]

Been thinking about things and I think taking into account RBNZ's move yesterday and the weakness of our economy relative to our trading partners there is a real risk of material downside to the currency even from here (about 66 cents U.S.). Great company with excellent prospects that is likely to face material increasing cost pressure with the currency, (albeit mitigated by the fact that a lot of sales are in Australia which doesn't have the currency weakness situation) Its been a great ride from just under $3 about 2 years ago. Today I decided to sell half and have a free ride with the rest.
Free riding is the best way to travel.
Well done.

[winner69]

Beagles ....get spooked by those electronic card spend numbers for July which came out today

Punters spending up big time - just under 5% higher than a year ago

But apparel was 5.8% lower than last year. Three of the last four months there’s been a pretty significant negative number

[winner69]

Look what you’ve done beagle ...there’s a stampede to the exits

Many more to hear your news ....the slide probably will continue Monday

[Beagle]

Look what you’ve done beagle ...there’s a stampede to the exits

Many more to hear your news ....the slide probably will continue Monday
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/224a62c4/kiwi-in-a-dark-place-headed-for-1-9-weekly-fall-after-rbnz-s-dovish-lurch.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Kiwi%20in%20a%20dark%20place%20headed %20for%2019%20weekly%20fall%20after%20RBNZs%20dovi sh%20lurch&utm_content=Kiwi%20in%20a%20dark%20place%20headed% 20for%2019%20weekly%20fall%20after%20RBNZs%20dovis h%20lurch+CID_0420d7712c8d65b92ff903c6c366bcde&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle224a62c4kiwi-in-a-dark-place-headed-for-1-9-weekly-fall-after-rbnz-s-dovish-lurchhtml

I reckon the $Kiwi is in real trouble. 60 cents at some stage over the next year would not be a complete surprise in my opinion. Its really the currency that's driven my decision to reduce.

[couta1]

Look what you’ve done beagle ...there’s a stampede to the exits

Many more to hear your news ....the slide probably will continue Monday There will be a rush back through the entry door once they announce a big fat juicy divvy in this low interest environment. I don't see any substantial holders rushing for the exits and I put myself in that category.

[Snow Leopard]

This is only the fourth down day in the last five weeks during which time the share price has risen 16%.

I have a clothes shop vying for second spot in my NZX investment portfolio and I so hate shopping for clothes.

[Maverick]

Personally i can invest in air NZ and hlg as companies I can understand but I am neither an oil nor currency speculater.
So I try to strip out the speculation component from a decent company thinking that the spot price will eventually go up down sideways or whatever but in the long run a good company is still a good company and will shine through.
(unless the commodity or currency is so out of whack then it has to be considered.... which neither are right now)
put another way . You can swim against the tide but 6 hours later you are swimming with the tide.. can't believe I just came up with that!

[Snow Leopard]

...put another way . You can swim against the tide but 6 hours later you are swimming with the tide.. can't believe I just came up with that!

Do Hallensteins do swimwear then?

[tim23]

Been thinking about things and I think taking into account RBNZ's move yesterday and the weakness of our economy relative to our trading partners there is a real risk of material downside to the currency even from here (about 66 cents U.S.). Great company with excellent prospects that is likely to face material increasing cost pressure with the currency, (albeit mitigated by the fact that a lot of sales are in Australia which doesn't have the currency weakness situation) Its been a great ride from just under $3 about 2 years ago. Today I decided to sell half and have a free ride with the rest.
Did same thing yesterday exit @ $5.51!

[Raz]

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/224a62c4/kiwi-in-a-dark-place-headed-for-1-9-weekly-fall-after-rbnz-s-dovish-lurch.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Kiwi%20in%20a%20dark%20place%20headed %20for%2019%20weekly%20fall%20after%20RBNZs%20dovi sh%20lurch&utm_content=Kiwi%20in%20a%20dark%20place%20headed% 20for%2019%20weekly%20fall%20after%20RBNZs%20dovis h%20lurch+CID_0420d7712c8d65b92ff903c6c366bcde&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle224a62c4kiwi-in-a-dark-place-headed-for-1-9-weekly-fall-after-rbnz-s-dovish-lurchhtml

I reckon the $Kiwi is in real trouble. 60 cents at some stage over the next year would not be a complete surprise in my opinion. Its really the currency that's driven my decision to reduce.

Agreed..best investment currently for me this past week has been holding overseas assets...

[winner69]

Beagle / Tim — looking like you guys timed ‘your exit’ perfectly

[RupertBear]

Beagle / Tim — looking like you guys timed ‘your exit’ perfectly

This little bear got out on Friday as well :)

[RupertBear]

Havnt seen an SSH notice so Couta must still be holding :D

[couta1]

This little bear got out on Friday as well :) I'm resisting the fickle urge on certain stocks and this is one of them, might even add more if it drops below $5.

[RupertBear]

I'm resisting the fickle urge on certain stocks and this is one of them, might even add more if it drops below $5.

Good on you Couta! Might buy back in if it drops below $5 myself :)

[Beagle]

I'm resisting the fickle urge on certain stocks and this is one of them, might even add more if it drops below $5.


Good on you Couta! Might buy back in if it drops below $5 myself :)

Agreed. I was happy to sell half at around $5.50, but more than happy to buy them back if the price gets silly. Very good well managed company with excellent stock turn, excellent growth prospects in Australia with Glassons and a very long track record. Trading on undemanding fundamental's with a highly attractive dividend yield of over 10% gross. I think they have a certain amount of pricing power with the currency and as mentioned before Australia sales will be unaffected by the lower $Kiwi...other than translation of Australian profits which will be higher in $Kiwi terms.

[winner69]

Yep, not bad, but suppose its already fully priced in. No positive surprises - result is even a wee bit below the HY expectations. I think SP more likely to drop today ... bye bye $6 :crying:

More than fully priced it it seems

[ShouldHaveHeld]

Glad i did not buy yet, was hoping to get it below $5!

[RupertBear]

Agreed. I was happy to sell half at around $5.50, but more than happy to buy them back if the price gets silly. Very good well managed company with excellent stock turn, excellent growth prospects in Australia with Glassons and a very long track record. Trading on undemanding fundamental's with a highly attractive dividend yield of over 10% gross. I think they have a certain amount of pricing power with the currency and as mentioned before Australia sales will be unaffected by the lower $Kiwi...other than translation of Australian profits which will be higher in $Kiwi terms.

Understand you selling half and keeping your "free" shares Mr Beagle but dont you find it hard watching your profits slipping away? :confused: I guess when its a good company the sp will gp back up again and the divvie is pretty good ;)

[couta1]

Understand you selling half and keeping your "free" shares Mr Beagle but dont you find it hard watching your profits slipping away? :confused: I guess when its a good company the sp will gp back up again and the divvie is pretty good ;) Don't think like a reef fish young bear, that's what you are seeing today with a low liquidity stock on a low volume day, the price is all over the place if you look at the depth chart, just random sellers acting like reef fish. PS-I have nothing against reef fish by the way, they keep the ocean floor clean.

[Beagle]

Understand you selling half and keeping your "free" shares Mr Beagle but dont you find it hard watching your profits slipping away? :confused: I guess when its a good company the sp will gp back up again and the divvie is pretty good ;)

I try and be philosophical mate. You can only be half wrong or half right when you sell half :) Philosophy 101 "To thine own self be true". If you think its a good company, even if you've done really well out of them in the past you need to keep some long term and try and ignore the short term price volatility.

[Joshuatree]

And philosophy 109 Rupert. if you are offered a new pair of free carried undies take them.:) Undy divi for too.

[tim23]

I try and be philosophical mate. You can only be half wrong or half right when you sell half :) Philosophy 101 "To thine own self be true". If you think its a good company, even if you've done really well out of them in the past you need to keep some long term and try and ignore the short term price volatility.
Good point but in thus case I sold half and the other half a practically running for free.

[Raz]

Understand you selling half and keeping your "free" shares Mr Beagle but dont you find it hard watching your profits slipping away? :confused: I guess when its a good company the sp will gp back up again and the divvie is pretty good ;)

It would do my head in to track to that level, in the end you have your goals and objectives.. set clear trigger points for exits/entry...I have been selling down all summer and now I'm holding just for dividend only....

[Beagle]

It would do my head in to track to that level, in the end you have your goals and objectives.. set clear trigger points for exits/entry...I have been selling down all summer and now I'm holding just for dividend only....

Its kind of ironic...I only ever bought for the dividend a couple of years ago. Classic dividend hounds stock I told myself with only a very modest chance of going up much. I never expected them to double in just on 2 years. Funny how things pan out sometimes isn't it. Happy to hold half...I think they're just starting a really great expansion of Glassons in Australia and expect a very solid performance from this company going forward.

[oldtech]

Exactly what I did Beagle - bought for the dividend, pleasantly surprised to see the capital growth outstrip it by a factor of 5 in my case!

[couta1]

When I see a definite bend in the end, I'll sell some, until then it is unknown whether the currency effect will have as much impact on the bottom line compared to the growth factor currently in play.

[h2so4]

When I see a definite bend in the end, I'll sell some, until then it is unknown whether the currency effect will have as much impact on the bottom line compared to the growth factor currently in play.

Right on. Looking forward to the dividend.:t_up:

[Beagle]

When I see a definite bend in the end, I'll sell some, until then it is unknown whether the currency effect will have as much impact on the bottom line compared to the growth factor currently in play.

A wily fox has nothing on you mate. Who knows, the two factors might cancel each other out and we get another ripper year in FY19. Too early to tell.

[percy]

I try and be philosophical mate. You can only be half wrong or half right when you sell half :) Philosophy 101 "To thine own self be true". If you think its a good company, even if you've done really well out of them in the past you need to keep some long term and try and ignore the short term price volatility.

I would never had invested in SUM had I not sold down some of my RYM.I would never invested in HLG had I not sold down some of my SUM.I would never have invested in ALF had I not sold some of my HLG.I would never invested in OCA had I not sold some of my ALF.Not looking to sell any OCA.[at this point in time],so will leave SKO to others.

[Maverick]

I would never had invested in SUM had I not sold down some of my RYM.I would never invested in HLG had I not sold down some of my SUM.I would never have invested in ALF had I not sold some of my HLG.I would never invested in OCA had I not sold some of my ALF.Not looking to sell any OCA.[at this point in time],so will leave SKO to others.
That's just shuffling deck chairs on the apollo mission.

[percy]

That's just shuffling deck chairs on the apollo mission.

I have a lot of fun .
Also very profitable.
So I will continue doing it.

[Maverick]

I have a lot of fun .
Also very profitable.
So I will continue doing it.
And good for ASB securities too. Everybody wins.

[percy]

And good for ASB securities too. Everybody wins.

Craigs.
I have never minded paying brokerage.
Bit like tax,the more I pay,means I have earnt more.

[Maverick]

Craigs.
I have never minded paying brokerage.
Bit like tax,the more I pay,means I have earnt more.
Ok Percy, it's off topic but why does a fellow so well versed in all of this get services from Craig's. You are in a position where they should be coming to you. ASB will trade at .2% margin for a guru like you which I'm confident Craig's aren't. that's even more left over to pay IRD��

[Patient Panda]

I enjoy and learn a lot from many of Percy’s posts, a lot of value given. Regardless of how he chooses to do business I think the quality of much of the ‘resear h’ done by these gurus and brokerage houses would certainly improve if they consulted him ! :D

[percy]

Ok Percy, it's off topic but why does a fellow so well versed in all of this get services from Craig's. You are in a position where they should be coming to you. ASB will trade at .2% margin for a guru like you which I'm confident Craig's aren't. that's even more left over to pay IRD��

Sorry to sidetrack this thread.
When I was working selling books I had no time for sorting out Australian bank accounts,and paperwork with cash issues/rights issues,transfering money from one country to another,receiving Australian divies etc,so it was either do not bother with Australia, or do it through Craigs .Now I am retired I just can not be bothered.Less paperwork the better. .Rather spend my time on research.
NZ.Receiving good allocations of new issues soon paid for brokerage.Having access to my broker and Craigs research is helpful.
I have profitable fun with the share market.I do not want it to change from being a hobbie to work,

[Maverick]

Looks like our Aussie buying friend is back today after a few days off. Wonder what they are willing to bid up to to get the amount they want?

[Beagle]

Understand you selling half and keeping your "free" shares Mr Beagle but dont you find it hard watching your profits slipping away? :confused: I guess when its a good company the sp will gp back up again and the divvie is pretty good ;)

See what a couple of days can do. Now I'm not sure I'm all that pleased I sold half or should that be kept half.... in fact I'm pretty sure I'm half confused lol
But one thing is for sure my furry bear friend, nobody ever went broke taking some money off the table when they'd doubled it.

[RupertBear]

See what a couple of days can do. Now I'm not sure I'm all that pleased I sold half or should that be kept half.... in fact I'm pretty sure I'm half confused lol
But one thing is for sure my furry bear friend, nobody ever went broke taking some money off the table when they'd doubled it.

I think Percy would call you well positioned Mr Beagle :)

[tim23]

See what a couple of days can do. Now I'm not sure I'm all that pleased I sold half or should that be kept half.... in fact I'm pretty sure I'm half confused lol
But one thing is for sure my furry bear friend, nobody ever went broke taking some money off the table when they'd doubled it.
Good call - feel same way!

[couta1]

I think Percy would call you well positioned Mr Beagle :) No, that's what you call half mast,. PS-Remember the lesson about the reef fish young bear.

[RupertBear]

No, that's what you call half mast,. PS-Remember the lesson about the reef fish young bear.

QUOTE=Joshuatree;724520]And philosophy 109 Rupert. if you are offered a new pair of free carried undies take them.:) Undy divi for too.[/QUOTE]

Life lessons on sailing, fishing and free undies :cool: :D

[winner69]

Close 560 today

Punters will love it when they announce a 20 cents dividend next month

That could push it to 6 bucks

Was it really 520 the other day ....that beagle surely did spook the market.

[sb9]

Close 560 today

Punters will love it when they announce a 20 cents dividend next month

That could push it to 6 bucks

Was it really 520 the other day ....that beagle surely did spook the market.

Soaking up more at 5.60 range, decent volume through for start of the day.

[Beagle]

Very Strongly bid at $5.70... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU Thank goodness I used some of the proceeds to top up my Synlait at $10.30

[RupertBear]

Very Strongly bid at $5.70... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=esjec0JWEXU Thank goodness I used some of the proceeds to top up my Synlait at $10.30

Your a cunning hound Mr Beagle getting some SML at $10.30! And your free half mast HLG shares are sailing along nicely so its a double whammy for you I reckon :)

[RupertBear]

BOOM! :eek2:

[Beagle]

Your a cunning hound Mr Beagle getting some SML at $10.30! And your free half mast HLG shares are sailing along nicely so its a double whammy for you I reckon :)

Not looking quite as cunning today but my tail is wagging and I am a happy Beagle. Not selling my free shares no matter what the SP does...opps, I suppose this somewhat irrational behaviour explains some RYM shareholders philosophy :blush:

[couta1]

Looks like there's more money to be made for my wife and I from clothes than fancy milk.Lol.

[Beagle]

Looks like there's more money to be made for my wife and I from clothes than fancy milk.Lol.

Well done for holding an XXXXXL position mate. Congrats. If this makes the half way point between the PE of Briscoes and Kathmandu its a $7 stock so the PE is very reasonable even for those who are emotionally attached :p

[RupertBear]

Not looking quite as cunning today but my tail is wagging and I am a happy Beagle. Not selling my free shares no matter what the SP does...opps, I suppose this somewhat irrational behaviour explains some RYM shareholders philosophy :blush:

At least you kept some Mr Beagle, this silly bear didnt :( I am not sure why it jumped up like that today :confused: but I am very pleased for all you holders esp Couta who must be a very very happy holder :)

[oldtech]

I must have missed some announcement, what lit that rocket?!

[Beagle]

At least you kept some Mr Beagle, this silly bear didnt :( I am not sure why it jumped up like that today :confused: but I am very pleased for all you holders esp Couta who must be a very very happy holder :)

Yes mate, longer experience has taught this slightly greying dog that its better to be half wrong than completely wrong. Probably a bit dangerous buying back in at this price, you might get your fur ruffled.

[winner69]

Just wait until the full year announcement and what the divie will be

Many will say ....jeez 20 cents and jump in at that time

[percy]

Yes mate, longer experience has taught this slightly greying dog that its better to be half wrong than completely wrong. Probably a bit dangerous buying back in at this price, you might get your fur ruffled.

Perfection is not possible in the share market.
I was reading an article in Livewire this morning, that said Warren Buffett only got 6 out of 10 calls right.??????
Worth thinking about.

ps.Lucky for us so many posters on ST get 8 or 9.5 out of 10 right.?...lol.

[Beagle]

Perfection is not possible in the share market.
I was reading an article in Livewire this morning, that said Warren Buffett only got 6 out of 10 calls right.??????
Worth thinking about.

ps.Lucky for us so many posters on ST get 8 or 9.5 out of 10 right.?...lol.

Thanks and well said. I find I am too hard on myself and expect 9 out of 10 to be right when a more realistic expectation is more appropriate. Read the other day that Buffet make most of his money after 55. That makes me feel better too. Turners seems to have stabilized too, better than 50/50 chance I don't need to visit the therapist this week lol

[percy]

A friend of the family was a builder.
Told me he always followed the market, but did not have the cash to really invest until he sold his business and retired.
Then he made his "real wealth", in the share market.
I have heard the 6 out of 10 call often,but this was the first time I heard it also included Warren Buffett.
For us "mug" investors I think we have to realise we will make mistakes often.
The secret is then to wake up quickly, sell, and move on.
It worked for me in book selling,and works just fine with the share market too.

PS.I think knowing you are human and are going to make mistakes,makes it a lot easier to face up to them.
Old American saying "We appear to have a problem".Once you know you have a problem, you are well on the way to fixing it.

[Beagle]

A friend of the family was a builder.
Told me he always followed the market, but did not have the cash to really invest until he sold his business and retired.
Then he made his "real wealth", in the share market.
I have heard the 6 out of 10 call often,but this was the first time I heard it also included Warren Buffett.
For us "mug" investors I think we have to realise we will make mistakes often.
The secret is then to wake up quickly, sell, and move on.
It worked for me in book selling,and works just fine with the share market too.

PS.I think knowing you are human and are going to make mistakes,makes it a lot easier to face up to them.
Old American saying "We appear to have a problem".Once you know you have a problem, you are well on the way to fixing it.

You're becoming like a wise old owl in your retirement Percy and saving me a fortune on therapists lol

$6 there you go folks. Just remember who called this a buy at under $3 against widespread howling that retail was dead lol