HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Raz]

You're becoming like a wise old owl in your retirement Percy and saving me a fortune on therapists lol

$6 there you go folks. Just remember who called this a buy at under $3 against widespread howling that retail was dead lol

As you know i went with you tip..then doubted they can make it work in Australia as no NZ company has really pulled that off...nice result and still have XL level holding...after constant selling on the way up...was going to buy you a beer then you went off on that you diet..at this rate I will have to get you one of those BMWs you sooo admire :-)

[winner69]

Broke through 6 bucks

Reckon 7 bucks later in year

Looks like the annual result wasn’t ‘priced in’ at $5.50 as some suggested after all

[Beagle]

As you know i went with you tip..then doubted they can make it work in Australia as no NZ company has really pulled that off...nice result and still have XL level holding...after constant selling on the way up...was going to buy you a beer then you went off on that you diet..at this rate I will have to get you one of those BMWs you sooo admire :-)


Its all good mate I'll look forward to a couple of beers sometime. (rumor has it that being chauffeur driven around in a BMW 7 series isn't cool anymore, just ask Simon Bridges lol)

You're welcome Couta1- I'll have a few ciders back off you in Queenstown :)


Broke through 6 bucks

Reckon 7 bucks later in year

Looks like the annual result wasn’t ‘priced in’ at $5.50 as some suggested after all

There's always some cheeky bugger around to bring you back down to earth isn't there lol
Using the proceeds to top up Synlait at $10.30 is not looking quite so cunning after all...early days though :)

[percy]

You need to go to YouTube;
Mrs.Brown that's nice...………………………….

[JeremyALD]

Wow amazing run. Now my best performing stock with Afterpay. Never thought I'd have two double bangers in just over a year :)

[Beagle]

Broke through 6 bucks

Reckon 7 bucks later in year



$7 would bring it in line with the average PE of KMD and Briscoes. Momentum a powerful force in the market though some guy on here told me so it could easily overshoot that in which case I'll really be licking my wounds unless of course Synlait goes ballistic.

Wonder where Coutts is this evening, probably out celebrating...and why not !

[Snow Leopard]

...$6 there you go folks. Just remember who called this a buy at under $3 against widespread howling that retail was dead lol

Yeah, big thanks to winner69 :t_up:

No2 spot in the NZX investment portfolio as of today ahead of EBO and only needs another few cents to displace SCL.

I would buy a pair of leopard print shorts off them...
if they sold leopard prints shorts...
and did delivery to Indonesia.

[winner69]

Yeah, big thanks to winner69 :t_up:




Jeremy was the main cheerleader......even though he was rather conservative with his forecasts

[Snow Leopard]

Jeremy was the main cheerleader......even though he was rather conservative with his forecasts

Apologies.

:t_up: So really big thanks to JeremyALD then :t_up:

Best dressed poster on the forum :)

[Beagle]

The three factors they mentioned as impacting this year's results have all be fixed or ameliorated. Exchange rate was around John Key's goldilocks 65 cents for quite some time there and that's obviously changed materially and the start of winter was the warmest I can ever recall and oh my goodness how that's changed !! Looks like Glasson's its getting is product offer sorted too.

With other clothing retailers like Kathmandu doing well this year's result is increasingly looking like the bottom of the cycle.

Good that the top line has been maintained which gives me confidence they can bounce back from here. Signalling final dividend will be at historical level's has this hound assessing the future deliveries to his food bowl.

Last year we had 16.5 cps final and 13.5 cps interim, total 30 cps fully imputed so at $2.70 that's a net dividend yield of 11.11% or a gross yield of 15.4%.

This reporting season is ALL ABOUT THE OUTLOOK and this is a prime example in my opinion. Outlook materially better than the expected result. How many other companies pay you a consistent 15% divvy to wait for improved results ?

There's definitely seriously good value here for dividend hounds !!

Posted 10/8/16... just one of many posts extoling the virtues of this stock two years ago. Nailed it at $2.70 right at the bottom. Bought for the dividend yield and never really imagined it would more than double in two years. If only I could go back and put another 0 on the size of the buy order lol

[couta1]

Posted 10/8/16... just one of many posts extoling the virtues of this stock two years ago. Nailed it at $2.70 right at the bottom. Bought for the dividend yield and never really imagined it would more than double in two years. If only I could go back and put another 0 on the size of the buy order lol If I could turn back time, if I could find a way, I'd take back all those HLG shares that got away, If I could turn back time.

[Beagle]

If I could turn back time, if I could find a way, I'd take back all those HLG shares that got away, If I could turn back time.


oh yes why not, lets have it then https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsKbwR7WXN4
Gosh, maybe we might see an outfit like that modelled in the next annual report :)

[couta1]

oh yes why not, lets have it then https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BsKbwR7WXN4
Gosh, maybe we might see an outfit like that modelled in the next annual report :) Yes I dedicate this song to all the people who have lost HLG shares along the way but especially to a certain young bear who frequates these parts from time to time.

[Beagle]

Amazing...I just checked back on my portfolio spreadsheet from August 17 and they were only $3.27 then. They've had a huge year since then and nobody seems to care about the currency where it is !

[DarkHorse]

Perfection is not possible in the share market.
I was reading an article in Livewire this morning, that said Warren Buffett only got 6 out of 10 calls right.??????
Worth thinking about.

ps.Lucky for us so many posters on ST get 8 or 9.5 out of 10 right.?...lol.

Good to be reminded Buffet only succeeded with 6 out 10. His trick is asymmetric risk - so wins tend to be much bigger than losses. Easier said than done of course, but HLG recently has met that criteria for me - upside high, downside low - hence happy to have it as my largest holding :)

[percy]

Like a great number of fine limousines I have driven in, the HLG offered a very smooth profitable ride,which I remember fondly.
The latest model has a lot of improvements, bringing it up to near the LOV class.

OMG.They are both retailers.

[RupertBear]

Yes I dedicate this song to all the people who have lost HLG shares along the way but especially to a certain young bear who frequates these parts from time to time.

There are soooo many things I am sure we would all change if we could turn back time. I would start by telling my Mum and Dad how much I loved them soo many more times than I did before they died :( And yes selling those damn HLG shares when I thought they couldnt possibly go any higher :rolleyes:. Another life lesson for the bear and a great song to dance to while kicking ones head at the same time! :D

[Raz]

There are soooo many things I am sure we would all change if we could turn back time. I would start by telling my Mum and Dad how much I loved them soo many more times than I did before they died :( And yes selling those damn HLG shares when I thought they couldnt possibly go any higher :rolleyes:. Another life lesson for the bear and a great song to dance to while kicking ones head at the same time! :D

Do you really think about what could have been...or potential mistakes you have made. Personally I do not given them a moments thought or regret..seems wasted energy...I try to learn lessons and just move on.

[RupertBear]

Do you really think about what could have been...or potential mistakes you have made. Personally I do not given them a moments thought or regret..seems wasted energy...I try to learn lessons and just move on.

Yes and No. Yes I do think about things I wish I had done differently but no I dont live in the past and my life is not full of regrets. Learning to move on is on my agenda but I have not quite perfected that skill yet :)

[Arbroath]

Yes and No. Yes I do think about things I wish I had done differently but no I dont live in the past and my life is not full of regrets. Learning to move on is on my agenda but I have not quite perfected that skill yet :)

As of yesterday's close I have sold out entirely. Still rate the company but have made a lot over the past 3 years and at $5.50-6.00 feel the risk reward is becoming too skewed. Looks like that Aussie fund is still hungry like a wolf for them though. GLTH

[waikare]

There are soooo many things I am sure we would all change if we could turn back time. I would start by telling my Mum and Dad how much I loved them soo many more times than I did before they died :( And yes selling those damn HLG shares when I thought they couldnt possibly go any higher :rolleyes:. Another life lesson for the bear and a great song to dance to while kicking ones head at the same time! :D

Look back on it as a learning curve.

He that is afraid to shake the dice, will never throw a six
Chinese Proverb

[Beagle]

As of yesterday's close I have sold out entirely. Still rate the company but have made a lot over the past 3 years and at $5.50-6.00 feel the risk reward is becoming too skewed. Looks like that Aussie fund is still hungry like a wolf for them though. GLTH

I find myself wondering if they will keep buying like they did with LOV and send this up to a multiple we haven't seen before ? Its one way of the manager looking really good because they make so much unrealised profit on their earlier purchases (s)he looks like an absolute genius and might even earn a huge bonus. NAH... Probably some conspiracy theory, managers of investment firms never act purely in their own interests instead of their shareholders interests, surely not, (wash my snout out with soap and water). $7 would have them on a historical PE of nearly 15...that's uncharted waters for HLG isn't it ?

[couta1]

I find myself wondering if they will keep buying like they did with LOV and send this up to a multiple we haven't seen before ? Its one way of the manager looking really good because they make so much unrealised profit on their earlier purchases (s)he looks like an absolute genius and might even earn a huge bonus. NAH... Probably some conspiracy theory, managers of investment firms never act purely in their own interests instead of their shareholders interests, surely not, (wash my snout out with soap and water). They can have all mine for $8.

[Beagle]

They can have all mine for $8.

You never know mate...momentum is a powerful thing.

[Arbroath]

I find myself wondering if they will keep buying like they did with LOV and send this up to a multiple we haven't seen before ? Its one way of the manager looking really good because they make so much unrealised profit on their earlier purchases (s)he looks like an absolute genius and might even earn a huge bonus. NAH... Probably some conspiracy theory, managers of investment firms never act purely in their own interests instead of their shareholders interests, surely not, (wash my snout out with soap and water). $7 would have them on a historical PE of nearly 15...that's uncharted waters for HLG isn't it ?


My average exit price of $5.70 will look pretty stupid if they go to $7+, and they might, but I'll sleep well and patiently wait for some 'value' to emerge somewhere else...

[couta1]

My average exit price of $5.70 will look pretty stupid if they go to $7+, and they might, but I'll sleep well and patiently wait for some 'value' to emerge somewhere else... You have done well, made a good profit so whatever happens doesn't matter, each living day is a gift so enjoy your spoils.

[Beagle]

My average exit price of $5.70 will look pretty stupid if they go to $7+, and they might, but I'll sleep well and patiently wait for some 'value' to emerge somewhere else...

Yeah I'm starting to get weirded out by this selling half thing now. Not sure which way I want the share price to go now. Part of me wants it to go back to $5.50 so I can turn back time and buy them back lol...but yes, there is value SUM where else.

[BlackPeter]

My average exit price of $5.70 will look pretty stupid if they go to $7+, and they might, but I'll sleep well and patiently wait for some 'value' to emerge somewhere else...

Nobody ever got broke by taking profits ... and selling at the absolute peak is - similar to buying at the absolute bottom - just sheer luck. Nobody can predict future share price and therefore it is impossible to recognize a peak or bottom in real time.

Just imagine it would be possible to identify the peak in real time. Everybody with this skill would wait until the peak and than everybody would try to sell at the same time, but nobody would buy (I guess who would want to buy at the peak?). Would make for an interesting market.

Just be happy with your gains and invest the money into some other great growth company. Personally I see HLG still as cyclical - and historically they are well in the upper part of the cycle. There are plenty other companies around which promise in my view at current market price a better ratio between upside gains and downside risks.

Time for a dog of the NZX strategy instead of trying to squeeze the last bit of potential gain out of yesterdays winner? Remember - always leave something on the table for the next buyer ... or you might not find any.

[RupertBear]

Yeah I'm starting to get weirded out by this selling half thing now. Not sure which way I want the share price to go now. Part of me wants it to go back to $5.50 so I can turn back time and buy them back lol...but yes, there is value SUM where else.

Mr Beagle focus on how well you have done, you took your profits and your free shares are now worth heaps more than a few days ago. The sp may go down just as quickly as it went up who would know. Enjoy your gains :)

[Antipodean]

Such a hard problem we all have - exiting out a small proportion of a great investment for a fantastic gain in a short period - and watching the rest still rise :)

[macduffy]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.

[percy]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.

Best advice given on ST for a very long time.

[BlackPeter]

I'll stick with "Sell your losses and keep your gains" and wait for the trend to bend.


Best advice given on ST for a very long time.

Absolutely. The only point of contention might be to agree on the indicator for when "the trend is bent". Is it at the MA30? the MA50? the MA100? the MA 200? x% below the last peak?

And is it a good idea to buy back if you realize that this time the trend change was a false signal - which can be a very expensive strategy?

Recognizing sticky trend changes and distinguishing them from bull and bear traps in real time is as impossible as knowing the peak or the trough when it occurs.

Everybody needs to define their own signals they are comfortable with ... and just fine tune them along the way, but no set of indicators will be "always right". You only can tune them "more or less aggressive" which either means more potential risks and more potential rewards or less potential risks but as well less potential rewards.

[percy]

Absolutely. The only point of contention might be to agree on the indicator for when "the trend is bent". Is it at the MA30? the MA50? the MA100? the MA 200? x% below the last peak?

And is it a good idea to buy back if you realize that this time the trend change was a false signal - which can be a very expensive strategy?

Recognizing sticky trend changes and distinguishing them from bull and bear traps in real time is as impossible as knowing the peak or the trough when it occurs.

Everybody needs to define their own signals they are comfortable with ... and just fine tune them along the way, but no set of indicators will be "always right". You only can tune them "more or less aggressive" which either means more potential risks and more potential rewards or less potential risks but as well less potential rewards.

I usually back test moving averages,to see which one has the best record with the company I am looking at.
For long term holds I wait for a couple of weeks after the 200 day MA has been broken before deciding whether the market is wrong,or I am wrong.In the case of my two largest holdings the market has proven to be wrong,and in the case of HBL I did very well buying at $1.18 when the 200 day ma was over $1.20.

[winner69]

The Rainbow MA is best (on yahoo charts)

[Beagle]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

[sb9]

It took bit of time for price to move from $4 range to $5 mark, but then the move from $5 to $6 was pretty rapid and swift. May be $6 handle is the appropriate range for it.

[BlackPeter]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company?

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

[Raz]

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company?

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

True...however if you are considering selling... the liquidity has been handy of late.. given the relative thin volumes this share usually attracts the price can move rather quickly....

[Beagle]

I guess the difficulty in assessing HLG's value is - are they a cyclical close to the top of the cycle or are they now a growth company? We really need to see the commentary around the annual result and any statements about outlook to shed some light on that

Based on historic numbers (backward 10 year EPS CAGR - 4.3%, backward 10 year revenue CAGR - 3.8%) are they a very modestly growing cyclical.10 years is a long way to go back but I get it, that's what you do with cyclical's. My instinct is their new Euro format Glassons stores are really resonating with customers and that "special sauce" is a key factor going forward.

Obviously - things might be different this time. However - only time will tell.

Without this information there is no basis in determining whether the current PE is cheap or dear. I certainly would consider it dear for a cyclical.

Its a really tough one to make a call on and the shares have come a long way in the last two years

[tim23]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.
Good assessment - still got my "free" half so despite missing some upside have a dollar each week so pretty happy with latest spike.

[sb9]

The USD cross rate is back upto 67c where it was pre OCR announcement date. That should help cement further price momentum.

[winner69]

The USD cross rate is back upto 67c where it was pre OCR announcement date. That should help cement further price momentum.

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/322581

Gotta love when the big boys are in hunt....

[couta1]

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less Punters often talk a load of crap.

[Beagle]

....can’t be true .....punters were saying it was going down to 62 cents or less


Outlook for 12 months ahead, could go down to 62 cents. Emphasis added for the sake of clarification.
ANZ Bank forecast is at that level too.

But who cares ?, that Aussie fund must LOV this stock...just look what PE they pushed LOV up too when buying that...probably do the same here because they see the special sauce Glassons has with its super cool Euro format stores....unique market offer like LOV.

[sb9]

http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1808/S00703/nz-q2-retail-sales-volumes-rise-more-than-expected.htm

Retail buzzing....

[Maverick]

Outlook for 12 months ahead, could go down to 62 cents. Emphasis added for the sake of clarification.
ANZ Bank forecast is at that level too.

But who cares ?, that Aussie fund must LOV this stock...just look what PE they pushed LOV up too when buying that...probably do the same here because they see the special sauce Glassons has with its super cool Euro format stores....unique market offer like LOV.
i reckon ,based on the good old HLG fundamentals, the share price has risen as far as it should go. I've been a huge fan (and continue to be so) of this company but at 6 bucks it's fully priced. Yes , good growth, no debt, excellent execution etc etc ......none of that has changed. But $6 builds all that in for now.
What has accelerated the share price is the aggressive buying buy "Graher" to get us here so quickly. The feeling out there seems that they will drive the share price to high Pe multiples but that's where I disagree. they are smart and they don't overpay.
they bought 6% into LOV mid 2016 at about $3 ,then peaked their holding in early 2017 at approx $3.50. (12% holding) but since then they have steadily reduced their holdings to now of about 7% at $12 .......so while they certainly have benefited from a rapidly appreciating LOV share price , they did not cause it. In fact they were exiting all the while it was going up.
LOV are now have cash looking for a home and HLG is looking prime. But I do not think they will bring an Aussy Pe down under.
Buying HLG at this price has changed from value investing to be more speculative.

[Beagle]

Mid point of guidance gives 45.89 cps earnings or 48.74 cps normalized for the $1.7m storm brand exit.
Choose what PE you think is appropriate. If we use the first figure the historical PE is 13.1 at $6 and the latter 12.3.
At $7 those PE's expand to 15.25 and 14.36 respectively.
Remember that the currency has dropped a fair bit from its average level in FY18 but on the other hand growth in Australia with Glassons appears to be very good and momentum for a brand counts for a lot.

Full and fair value now ? You folks be the judge.


i reckon ,based on the good old HLG fundamentals, the share price has risen as far as it should go. I've been a huge fan (and continue to be so) of this company but at 6 bucks it's fully priced. Yes , good growth, no debt, excellent execution etc etc ......none of that has changed. But $6 builds all that in for now.
What has accelerated the share price is the aggressive buying buy "Graher" to get us here so quickly. The feeling out there seems that they will drive the share price to high Pe multiples but that's where I disagree. they are smart and they don't overpay.
they bought 6% into LOV mid 2016 at about $3 ,then peaked their holding in early 2017 at approx $3.50. (12% holding) but since then they have steadily reduced their holdings to now of about 7% at $12 .......so while they certainly have benefited from a rapidly appreciating LOV share price , they did not cause it. In fact they were exiting all the while it was going up.
LOV are now have cash looking for a home and HLG is looking prime. But I do not think they will bring an Aussy Pe down under.
Buying HLG at this price has changed from value investing to be more speculative.

Good post Mav. The PE numbers at $7 look too high to me so I tend to agree with you. Good history on the LOV buying, thanks for sharing.
Maybe this is the right time for people with an XXXXXXXL sized holding to have a think about things ?

[Arbroath]

I put the odds for March 31 share price as:

$7.00+ 10%
$6.00-$7.00 10%
$5.00-$6.00 30%
Below $5.00 50%

Thats why I sold - I love HLG but its overvalued here for the risks (weather, NZ$, fastish-fashion fickleness etc).

[couta1]

I put the odds for March 31 share price as:

$7.00+ 10%
$6.00-$7.00 10%
$5.00-$6.00 30%
Below $5.00 50%

Thats why I sold - I love HLG but its overvalued here for the risks (weather, NZ$, fastish-fashion fickleness etc). So overall your saying there's a 50% chance the SP will be over $5 and 50% under $5, bit like a coin toss aye. Reckon I'd rather wait for the bend in the end than trust the result of a coin toss.

[Arbroath]

So overall your saying there's a 50% chance the SP will be over $5 and 50% under $5, bit like a coin toss aye. Reckon I'd rather wait for the bend in the end than trust the result of a coin toss.

You twist it however you want because most people would say I'm saying there's an 80% chance the share price will be lower than where it is now which is not a coin toss

[Beagle]

You twist it however you want because most people would say I'm saying there's an 80% chance the share price will be lower than where it is now which is not a coin toss

You could flip the thing on its head and ask, seeing as our new Australian friends didn't overpay for LOV, this implies that they must be seeing value at the current price ?
I would suggest their opinion of value has a vastly greater impact on the SP that yours or mine :)

[couta1]

You twist it however you want because most people would say I'm saying there's an 80% chance the share price will be lower than where it is now which is not a coin toss Each to their own, like I've said before, no substantial holders are selling.

[Maverick]

Each to their own, like I've said before, no substantial holders are selling.

I am:D

[MauroNZ]

I'm one of those who had followed this post, read reports from Craigs but considered enough retail (one wrong) exposure for now and the feeling of missing the boat since last year SP increase.

[44wishlists]

Each to their own, like I've said before, no substantial holders are selling.

I am:D

If that's the case, your sold shares may ended up in my portfolio now.

[rainey]

While Gaghger are in the wings mopping up gradually, I can't see to much down side risk. At this stage, its hard to say what their long term vision is but they must see a future in Australia particularly for Glassons

[couta1]

While Gaghger are in the wings mopping up gradually, I can't see to much down side risk. At this stage, its hard to say what their long term vision is but they must see a future in Australia particularly for Glassons Quietly smokin it's way toward $7, getting overlooked by the milky ones, I'm noticing you baby.

[sb9]

Quietly smokin it's way toward $7, getting overlooked by the milky ones, I'm noticing you baby.

You literally beat me by 2 secs. Was about to post along same lines after checking my portfolio just now.

Yes, looks like the excitement of milk stocks made this one forget today. Quietly marching towards $7 mark. Looks very gettable now.

[TheHunter]

My first stock I ever purchased and still a very happy holder :t_up:

Wonder what the potentially divi will be - usually the payout is similar to EPS. Potential for a 40cps+ total dividend for F18 on the cards?

Even at a share price of $7 that is a 5.7% net dividend yield - not too shabby in a low interest rate environment.

[LAC]

Edging higher and higher everyday but alas I have reduced 1/2. Was a great run but just cant be to certain on the currency over the next few months.

[Beagle]

While Gaghger are in the wings mopping up gradually, I can't see to much down side risk. At this stage, its hard to say what their long term vision is but they must see a future in Australia particularly for Glassons

I agree but what happens if they stop buying ?


Quietly smokin it's way toward $7, getting overlooked by the milky ones, I'm noticing you baby.

I see that price target as the very highest logical point taking into account all known information. PE looks maxed out there. If it goes close to there I will be sorely tempted to sell my remaining stake, unless there is some new information regarding rapid expansion of Glassons in Australia released with their annual result late in Sept.
Mind you I acknowledge there's a school of thought that says simply wait till the bend in the end and sell when it breaks down through its 100 day MA, wherever that might be. Might let TA rule the roost for a change considering I've already sold some.

[iceman]

Edging higher and higher everyday but alas I have reduced 1/2. Was a great run but just cant be to certain on the currency over the next few months.

I feel the currency talk on here is overstated. What currency are we talking about ?
A) USD where Trump may lose Senate/Gongress elections in a few months ? Weaker USD will help us.
B) A$. Just been through huge turbulence politically. Will it get weaker ? Stronger is better for HLG given our big growth in Oz

C) NZ$. Yes this is a risk with our poor Government and economic management.

But given the others above, I don’t see a big currency risk. I put loss or gain at 50/50 and stay fully invested with great comfort.

[Beagle]

Each to their own, like I've said before, no substantial holders are selling.

I am:D


I feel the currency talk on here is overstated. What currency are we talking about ?
A) USD where Trump may lose Senate/Gongress elections in a few months ? Weaker USD will help us.
B) A$. Just been through huge turbulence politically. Will it get weaker ? Stronger is better for HLG given our big growth in Oz

C) NZ$. Yes this is a risk with our poor Government and economic management.

But given the others above, I don’t see a big currency risk. I put loss or gain at 50/50 and stay fully invested with great comfort.

You guys are out of sync, we can't have that...I hereby sentence you to watching Top Gun again three times :)

Anyway...We're at all time high's for HLG now. Previous best from what I can see on a very long term chart I just looked at was $5.75 on 28/3/13.
Uncharted waters here folks. Our new Aussie friend must see some big expansion coming for Glassons in Australia in the years ahead. While they're buying I'm not going to stand in front of that train again.

[sideline]

I feel the currency talk on here is overstated. What currency are we talking about ?
A) USD where Trump may lose Senate/Gongress elections in a few months ? Weaker USD will help us.
B) A$. Just been through huge turbulence politically. Will it get weaker ? Stronger is better for HLG given our big growth in Oz

C) NZ$. Yes this is a risk with our poor Government and economic management.

But given the others above, I don’t see a big currency risk. I put loss or gain at 50/50 and stay fully invested with great comfort.

Just chiming in here: I presume HLG buy their stuff mostly from some Asian countries, not the US. So why would USDNZD cross rate matter? As long as the cross rate with the producing countries moves in sync with NZD there should be no problem as long as the supply contracts are written flexible enough?? Can somebody elaborate where the vulnerability/risk for HLG would be???

[Beagle]

My understanding is that products are often priced in US dollars for export even when manufactured in Bangladesh or some other ultra low cost country of manufacture.
That all time high chart I was just referring too goes back to 2000. HLG appears to be at its highest point in the last 18 years :t_up:

[iceman]

You guys are out of sync, we can't have that...I hereby sentence you to watching Top Gun again three times :)

Anyway...We're at all time high's for HLG now. Previous best from what I can see on a very long term chart I just looked at was $5.75 on 28/3/13.
Uncharted waters here folks. Our new Aussie friend must see some big expansion coming for Glassons in Australia in the years ahead. While they're buying I'm not going to stand in front of that train again.

Dont mind watching Top Gun again and again https://www.google.com.ar/search?q=kelly+mcgillis+top+gun&rlz=1C1NHXL_enNZ728NZ728&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=72QzlCUH4MUYMM%253A%252CSpjjKS_qJsmhkM%252C_&usg=AFrqEzfrJVO6AVQg7Nx2ydMRnfO02Vm0_Q&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjHoKrf1pPdAhVKlpAKHc3mALYQ_h0wGHoECAgQD w#imgrc=AjhsXxnTDox4OM:

[iceman]

Just chiming in here: I presume HLG buy their stuff mostly from some Asian countries, not the US. So why would USDNZD cross rate matter? As long as the cross rate with the producing countries moves in sync with NZD there should be no problem as long as the supply contracts are written flexible enough?? Can somebody elaborate where the vulnerability/risk for HLG would be???

All the Asian purchases are in USD as far as I know. So a drop in the NZD/USD rate increases costs for us. I'm just not convinced it will be as negative in the next year or two, as some of the posters on here seem to think. I thinks there is a fair chance of a USD slump after this autumn's election.

[sideline]

My understanding is that products are often priced in US dollars for export even when manufactured in Bangladesh or some other ultra low cost country of manufacture.
..........................

Yes, but so are timber logs exported from NZ to mostly China - those USD prices get quickly adjusted for the next contract when the USD exchange rates change.

[Beagle]

Dont mind watching Top Gun again and again https://www.google.com.ar/search?q=kelly+mcgillis+top+gun&rlz=1C1NHXL_enNZ728NZ728&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=72QzlCUH4MUYMM%253A%252CSpjjKS_qJsmhkM%252C_&usg=AFrqEzfrJVO6AVQg7Nx2ydMRnfO02Vm0_Q&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjHoKrf1pPdAhVKlpAKHc3mALYQ_h0wGHoECAgQD w#imgrc=AjhsXxnTDox4OM:

Just be sure when watching for the third time and Mrs Iceman asks why, tell her you like the planes :D

[couta1]

No Beagle or any other hound will talk me into selling ANY of these beauties, keep smoking baby.

[Beagle]

Mid point of forecast is $27.35m. Normalise for the net cost after tax of the $1.7m Strom exit, a non-repeating item ($1.7 x .72) = $1.224m
Normalised profit based on my estimate of a prevailing average of around 70 cents US during the year = $27.35m + $1.224m = $28.574m.
on 59.65 m shares that gives 47.9 cps. Currency lower this year but maybe HLG has some pricing power to combat this ?

Comparitives in N.Z. Best comparison is KMD, currently trading on a historic PE of 14.34.
Briscoes is trading on a historic PE of 12.85.

If we ignore Briscoes and simply accept KMD's PE as a benchmark 14.34 x 47.9 = $6.87. Maybe given Glassons excellent growth prospects in Australia this could be $7+ ?

[Beagle]

Might look at the relative growth rates of sales and EPS over the last couple of years for KMD v HLG tomorrow. Heck, here's a thought, maybe HLG has more potential and has demonstrated more growth so deserves a decent PE premium to KMD ? Might send some people into orbit if we start talking $8-9+...so better keep it super, duper rational...don't want any of my mates blowing a gasket...

[winner69]

Consumers still pretty confident and as the story goes "Perceptions of current conditions remain strong” ...that’s good

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/6f3978d5/consumer-confidence-holds-up-in-august-households-still-cautious.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Consumer%20confidence%20holds%20up%20 in%20August%20households%20still%20cautious&utm_content=Consumer%20confidence%20holds%20up%20i n%20August%20households%20still%20cautious+CID_1c8 d1ff2d1820073ea7e8a5104cde967&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle6f3978d5consum er-confidence-holds-up-in-august-households-still-cautioushtml

[Beagle]

Mid point of forecast is $27.35m. Normalise for the net cost after tax of the $1.7m Strom exit, a non-repeating item ($1.7 x .72) = $1.224m
Normalised profit based on my estimate of a prevailing average of around 70 cents US during the year = $27.35m + $1.224m = $28.574m.
on 59.65 m shares that gives 47.9 cps. Currency lower this year but maybe HLG has some pricing power to combat this ?

Comparitives in N.Z. Best comparison is KMD, currently trading on a historic PE of 14.34.
Briscoes is trading on a historic PE of 12.85.

If we ignore Briscoes and simply accept KMD's PE as a benchmark 14.34 x 47.9 = $6.87. Maybe given Glassons excellent growth prospects in Australia this could be $7+ ?

Sales growth in 2017 KMD 4.6%, HLG 6.9%
Sales growth in 2018 forecast KMD 7.7% HLG actual 16.2%
Conclusion HLG sales growth over the last two years has been materially stronger than KMD's.

Profit Growth 2017 KMD 13.5% HLG 26.2%
EPS growth 2018 forecast KMD 0% (based on significantly larger number of shares on issue this year) HLG 58%
Conclusion HLG earnings growth over the last two years has been dramatically better than KMD

PE of KMD, forecast for FY18 14.2

Now one wonders why our new Australian friends make of this. Perhaps they think the correct PE for HLG is materially higher than KMD ?

If we said HLG should be at a 3 PE premium to KMD which the above growth variance would suggest is pretty conservative then on a PE of 17.2 x 47.9 cps normalized earnings HLG appears to have the potential (Bull case) to trade as high as $8.24. Maybe our new Australian institutional friends think we really are mispricing this wonderful growth stock based on historical PE norms and not figuring enough that its morphed into a successful retailer with huge growth potential for Glassons in the massive Australian market ?

This could easily move even further north into uncharted territory.

Is this a retailer trading at the peak of cyclical earnings or a growth stock ? I don't know, you tell me... (I have a bob each way having sold half recently)

[couta1]

At this stage it's a growth stock Beagle, I reckon it's a couple of years away from it's peak.

[sb9]

Let's see if that big wall at $6.35 is broken this arvo, if so we could test the $7 mark soon.

[Gisborne Grumbler]

As you know i went with you tip..then doubted they can make it work in Australia as no NZ company has really pulled that off...

Apart from these two (both Australian businesses bigger than Hallensteins in total):
- Michael Hill with sales of $325m (AUD) in Australia
- KMD with FY17 sales of $298m (NZD) in Australia

[Beagle]

I agree but what happens if they stop buying ? Posted 30/8/18

Now we know. Exchange rate 65 point something certainly doesn't help either. Fair value...who knows ?, certainly not me.

[couta1]

Posted 30/8/18

Now we know. Exchange rate 65 point something certainly doesn't help either. Fair value...who knows ?, certainly not me. No worries, just hold them.PS-You never know they may yet buy more, Im keen for more if it drops below $5.50.

[winner69]

As the NZ continues to slip slide away Cameron Bagrie talking margin squeeze. One of his tweets

Retailers are set for a tough Xmas. Lower NZD/USD lifts import prices and good luck passing on a 10% or so price rise. #marginsqueeze


My experience says that retailers also have a demand problem as NZD drops - higher costs for consumers (petrol etc) means less overall spend


Can HLG manage a drop in demand along with a margin squeeze

[percy]

And you have not added in rent increases,insurance increases,power increases or wage increases.
Best to leave any IT upgrade to another year.
Problem of trying to maintain market share, means increased advertising expenditure.
Just as well their online sales have gained momentum,however higher prices there, will also affect demand.

[peat]

Yes prices are highly pressured in clothing. I inadvertently see online clothes shopping on the partners laptop. so much cheap stuff! So I am glad I reduced to half the position at 6.30 but would go back in at 5. Still near on 5% of equity portfolio. Back winners.

[couta1]

Yes prices are highly pressured in clothing. I inadvertently see online clothes shopping on the partners laptop. so much cheap stuff! So I am glad I reduced to half the position at 6.30 but would go back in at 5. Still near on 5% of equity portfolio. Back winners. So glad I haven't reduced any, still at 30% of portfolio and no intention of reducing, let's see how their Aussie growth goes.PS-Take a lot of this social media crap with a large grain of rock salt, the same goes for doom and gloom news items.

[winner69]

More good news Couts

Retail Card Spend for August showed Apparel sales up 0.6%

Not up much relative to other groups but still up

So with HLG stores growing market share they must be doing more than OK

[Beagle]

So glad I haven't reduced any, still at 30% of portfolio and no intention of reducing, let's see how their Aussie growth goes.PS-Take a lot of this social media crap with a large grain of rock salt, the same goes for doom and gloom news items.

That Glassons store in Queenstown looks pretty fancy mate and Hallenstein's store also a superb locality. Pity neither sells anything that improves my skiing ability :lol:
Currency shaping up as a genuine headwind for FY19.

[percy]

Don't worry about skiing.
The important thing in Queenstown is to look the part.

[Benny1]

That Glassons store in Queenstown looks pretty fancy mate and Hallenstein's store also a superb locality. Pity neither sells anything that improves my skiing ability :lol:
Currency shaping up as a genuine headwind for FY19.
Haven't got any HLG shares... So no help there... As far as the skiing goes... Just remember the old saying.... If you're not falling over your not trying hard enough... I try very hard all the time!!!! 🤗

[Beagle]

Haven't got any HLG shares... So no help there... As far as the skiing goes... Just remember the old saying.... If you're not falling over your not trying hard enough... I try very hard all the time!!!! ��

As Couta1 will attest, I did a very good impersonation of an emperor penguin doing a belly flop at one point lol
That currency a bit of a worry...could be heading down to 62 cents as ANZ have forecasted :eek2:

[peat]

I'm thinking Kiwi dollar will turn around sharply. Positions being established slowly.

[couta1]

As Couta1 will attest, I did a very good impersonation of an emperor penguin doing a belly flop at one point lol
That currency a bit of a worry...could be heading down to 62 cents as ANZ have forecasted :eek2: I reckon the Couta/Beagle ski ability ratio is about the same as the RYM/OCA ratio i.e. 12/1 however the Beagle whipped my butt at mini golf but then upon an Audit of his addition of the final scores he was found to have used some creative accounting methods and given a 5 point penalty(He still won though) PS-Enjoying Cardrona today.PPS-Wife bought a bag of Glassons clothes yesterday so all good.

[winner69]

I'm thinking Kiwi dollar will turn around sharply. Positions being established slowly.

Yep that seems to be the case ....maybe not a sharp turnaround but it will improve

ANZ economists / commentators are worse than small business owners ‘fiddling’ the business confidence numbers ....the bank economists / commentators forecast to suit their own / banks agenda and punters believe every word of it.

[Benny1]

That Glassons store in Queenstown looks pretty fancy mate and Hallenstein's store also a superb locality. Pity neither sells anything that improves my skiing ability :lol:
Currency shaping up as a genuine headwind for FY19.


I reckon the Couta/Beagle ski ability ratio is about the same as the RYM/OCA ratio i.e. 12/1 however the Beagle whipped my butt at mini golf but then upon an Audit of his addition of the final scores he was found to have used some creative accounting methods and given a 5 point penalty(He still won though) PS-Enjoying Cardrona today.PPS-Wife bought a bag of Glassons clothes yesterday so all good.

Ahh.. Cardrona.. I know it well... I'm on first name terms with Wanaka Physiotherapy as a result of my recent visits to that mountain... Lol!

[winner69]

Full results for year out next week.

Be interesting to see how much of the $10m profit increase came from Glassons Australia.

Of course you guys will only be concentrating on the size of the divie ....I will looking forward to what they say has happened to sales since balance date and to full year prospects.

[Beagle]

Full results for year out next week.

Be interesting to see how much of the $10m profit increase came from Glassons Australia.

Of course you guys will only be concentrating on the size of the divie ....I will looking forward to what they say has happened to sales since balance date and to full year prospects.

Growth in Australia is also the key factor for me, what with their market being five times the size of N.Z. We will need to see very strong growth over their and solid forward guidance to justify the SP getting up over $6 again.

[sb9]

Strong results from Kathmandu should help overall sentiment in retail sector.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/324010/286923.pdf

Interesting to note the strong growth in Australia...something HLG shareholders will be looking to see.

[peat]

back to full position today, after dumping half at 6.31

[Beagle]

back to full position today, after dumping half at 6.31

You're as cunning a hungry Beagle :)

[winner69]

Rod Duke said this in Briscoes half year announcement. Wonder if same conditions could impact HLG

“The economic outlook for the second half remains uncertain with flagging consumer confidence, increased industrial action, record-high fuel costs, increased wage pressures and a lower New Zealand dollar, all factors which will test retailers’ ability to maintain margins......

HLG stores need to keep growing market share ....assuming they actually are doing that

[Filthy]

Rod Duke said this in Briscoes half year announcement. Wonder if same conditions could impact HLG

“The economic outlook for the second half remains uncertain with flagging consumer confidence, increased industrial action, record-high fuel costs, increased wage pressures and a lower New Zealand dollar, all factors which will test retailers’ ability to maintain margins......

HLG stores need to keep growing market share ....assuming they actually are doing that

Rod always uses a 'worst-case scenario' tone though

[Patient Panda]

Rod Duke said this in Briscoes half year announcement. Wonder if same conditions could impact HLG

“The economic outlook for the second half remains uncertain with flagging consumer confidence, increased industrial action, record-high fuel costs, increased wage pressures and a lower New Zealand dollar, all factors which will test retailers’ ability to maintain margins......

HLG stores need to keep growing market share ....assuming they actually are doing that

yes he can be a bit’ve a broken record on outlook and the tough trading conditions. Luckily for us this also extends to the repetition of good results and increasing profits and divs, (even if the just released HY result was a bit more subdued than normal.)

[James108]

Growth appears to be slowing for Briscoes as the economic cycle nears the peak? I doubt this will be reflective of HLG performance due to australian presence.

In hindsight briscoes stake in KMD has worked out very well (although the market punished Rod at the time of attempted acquisition).

Happy holder of HLG and BGP.

[Beagle]

Rod always uses a 'worst-case scenario' tone though

Its good and refreshing to caution and ostensibly under promise and over deliver...many others CEO's should take note.

[winner69]

Outlook for 12 months ahead, could go down to 62 cents. Emphasis added for the sake of clarification.
ANZ Bank forecast is at that level too ......

Wonder what those bank economists are thinking now?

Told you many times mate not to read that sort of stuff ...or if you can’t resist doing so do take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

[sb9]

NZ cross rate with US is almost upto 67c.

Should test the $6 mark in time with results due out Friday next week.

[Beagle]

Wonder what those bank economists are thinking now?

Told you many times mate not to read that sort of stuff ...or if you can’t resist doing so do take their forecasts with a grain of salt.

Not sure if ANZ's forecast of 62 cents was December 18 or one year out but either way there's still quite a bit of water to go under the bridge.

[Beagle]

See page 12 (July 18 forecasts )

https://www.anz.co.nz/resources/c/c/cc57b009-1ccc-49ad-82bc-cea171546e9a/ANZ-EO-20180627.pdf?MOD=AJPERES


Thanks mate. Wonder who was saying they are forecasting 62 cents ? HLG down today even though currency is stronger ?

[winner69]

Thanks mate. Wonder who was saying they are forecasting 62 cents ? HLG down today even though currency is stronger ?

Was ANZ 62 in December and then 61 all of next year. Don’t believe that do you .....but Orr probably stuff things up and make it happen

Page14
https://www.anz.co.nz/resources/c/1/c1ee2d56-13f2-43bf-b90f-248b215974cd/ANZ-Weekly-Focus-20180917.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

[Beagle]

Was ANZ 62 in December and then 61 all of next year. Don’t believe that do you .....but Orr probably stuff things up and make it happen

Page14
https://www.anz.co.nz/resources/c/1/c1ee2d56-13f2-43bf-b90f-248b215974cd/ANZ-Weekly-Focus-20180917.pdf?MOD=AJPERES

Thanks for that mate, much better than a sleeping tablet. Some of that really is complete guesswork, especially 44 pence to the N.Z. dollar by Dec 2019. How on earth could they possibly know how the weakness / strength of the U.K. pound is going to play out without knowing the outcome of Brexit ? Probably not much more accurate than anyone trying to predict the weather in December 2019 lol

[Entrep]

Dumped this, HBL and Turners this week. All three looking weak chart wise IMO.

[couta1]

Dumped this, HBL and Turners this week. All three looking weak chart wise IMO. No intention of dumping any of the above especially this one.

[Snow Leopard]

Dumped this, HBL and Turners this week. All three looking weak chart wise IMO.

Interesting comment. This is what I see:

HBL: Feb-18, that is 7 months ago, was full of sell signals and there has been nothing to suggest buying since. However if I had have ignored all that and held till now then I would be looking for a close below $1.65 before pulling the trigger.

TRA: After selling out in Aug-17, I may have been in again in Dec-17 only to be out again two months later. Buying in during Jun-18 was reasonably sensible but I really would have been out again by mid August.

HLG: Whilst looking weak in the last three weeks and raising the first caution flag today, which it has twice previously in the last year, it is above the trend line and is not a technical sell.

Disc: Hold no TRA, a few HBL, a lot of HLG. :)

[winner69]

Thanks for that mate, much better than a sleeping tablet. Some of that really is complete guesswork, especially 44 pence to the N.Z. dollar by Dec 2019. How on earth could they possibly know how the weakness / strength of the U.K. pound is going to play out without knowing the outcome of Brexit ? Probably not much more accurate than anyone trying to predict the weather in December 2019 lol

........or the HLG SML etc shareprices eh

[Beagle]

Well that quickfire revision got me reading the commentary.
Sheesh... too many moving parts for mine in that diatribe,

ANZ have been making some very "courageous" calls this month. Saw a report earlier this week that they expected the OCR to be cut by 50-100 basis points due to weakness in the economy...and then the GDP figure of 1% for the quarter came out and my goodness, talk about egg on face !


........or the HLG SML etc shareprices eh
Been an interesting week for SML's SP...I didn't think they put a foot wrong and forward production estimates are in line with previous analysts forecast.

[winner69]

I just said this morning that the result is probably already priced in. Looks like I was right.

Six weeks ago and yes BP you appear to be right

Back to 550/560 again ......after those aussies pushed it up over 600 based on desire and not fundamentals?

[Beagle]

I posed the question, (a thinly veiled warning) when it got over $6, what happens when the Aussies stop buying and now we know the answer. Back down to fair value again, there's a surprise (NOT).

[Raz]

Happy to sell to the aussies at a good price...it is alway sweeter:)

[winner69]

Any estimates as to what divie will be announced Friday

Hope punters get excited and pump the price up and more by the divie amount ...still have a few more to hock off

Hate these companies that wait until the very last day before releasing reports

[Maverick]

Any estimates as to what divie will be announced Friday

Hope punters get excited and pump the price up and more by the divie amount ...still have a few more to hock off

Hate these companies that wait until the very last day before releasing reports

They are going to make 46 cents per share. They would normally hand over remaining 26 cents. (the`ve already paid 20 cents of it) But I reckon this time they will hold some back for their Aussie expansion. So Im picking the divi will be 21 cents . That's the usual 20 cent divi plus 1 cent added just to keep everyone frothing.(not that HLG ever seem too concerned about how their shareholders are feeling)

[winner69]

"..................That's the usual 20 cent divi plus 1 cent added just to keep everyone frothing.(not that HLG ever seem too concerned about how their shareholders are feeling)

Suppose it all depends on how much the insiders want?

[pg0220]

They are going to make 46 cents per share. They would normally hand over remaining 26 cents. (the`ve already paid 20 cents of it) But I reckon this time they will hold some back for their Aussie expansion. So Im picking the divi will be 21 cents . That's the usual 20 cent divi plus 1 cent added just to keep everyone frothing.(not that HLG ever seem too concerned about how their shareholders are feeling)

Same guess here, I would estimate the same 20 cents though. 40 cents divvy for the year still seems most of the profits paid out to shareholders, but I don't think they will reduce the divvy since holders are there expecting good divvy. In terms that they would need more funds to expand the aussie market share, I actually thought about possible ASX listing.... nah maybe not.

[sb9]

Well results tomorrow, let's see what they got in store for us especially divvy and Aus numbers.

[Everwood]

Same guess here, I would estimate the same 20 cents though. 40 cents divvy for the year still seems most of the profits paid out to shareholders, but I don't think they will reduce the divvy since holders are there expecting good divvy. In terms that they would need more funds to expand the aussie market share, I actually thought about possible ASX listing.... nah maybe not.

I'm expecting 20 cent per share, anything above that will be a bonus and go towards a new pair of shoes to add to my growing collection.

[Beagle]

Well results tomorrow, let's see what they got in store for us especially divvy and Aus numbers.

Clever double meaning...I see what you did there..probably the latest spring / summer fashions as well :)

[sb9]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/324591

Results just out...

Key bits...

Glassons Australia
Sales for the year were $78.42 million, an increase of 56.7% on the prior year. Again, our focus on fashion, speed to market, customer service and our investment in digital has driven sales in what remains an especially challenging retail market.
During the year two new stores, Melbourne Central and Charlestown were opened, and a further two stores, Warringah and Chermside, were refurbished into our new concept.
Planned investment is proceeding in Australia. We have refurbished three stores in the current season in Bondi, Highpoint and Parramatta with additional refurbishments scheduled in the short term. There are also additional store openings planned in The Glen and Liverpool for later this year with additional stores under consideration.

Dividend
The Directors have declared a final dividend of 24 cents per share (fully imputed) to be paid on 17th December 2018. Together with the interim dividend of 20 cents per share that was paid on 13th April 2018, the full year dividend is 44 cents per share. This increase in dividend payment comes as a result of the company’s strong balance sheet, well controlled inventories and the current trading patterns.

[Beagle]

Very strong result in the middle of guidance. Sales growing at 7%+ in the 8 weeks since balance date, (don't know if this is normalized or not for ditching Storm brand but doesn't say so) which is a very solid early indicator for the current year on the back of 16%+ sales growth last year.

Dividend..my goodness, the dividend hounds will be salivating !

"in what remains an especially challenging retail market" referring to the Australian retail market is a cautionary note that I feel and should serve to tone down any irrational exuberance.
Growth in online sales is VERY impressive indeed.

Overall...this is strong and the prospects look very sound for the future in my opinion. Looking forward to the dividend and reading the annual report with the usual stunning figures and I am not just talking about the numbers lol

[winner69]

One good indicator of just how good HLG are at managing the business -

Sold heaps were stuff but increase in inventory is minimal ...fantastic

[couta1]

And I never sold a single share.Lol. Excellent results in a challenging market place, no reason not to continue holding an XXXOS sized position.

[h2so4]

Inventory management keeps getting better and better. Growth continues outstanding result.

[Everwood]

I’m really happy with the result, especially the dividend of 24 cents per share. I will use the extra 4 cents per shares towards two new pairs of shoes and reinvent the 20 cents per shares towards other potential stock purchases over time.

[Beagle]

One good indicator of just how good HLG are at managing the business -

Sold heaps were stuff but increase in inventory is minimal ...fantastic

Pretty amazing that they can get $277m sales out of inventory at cost price of just ~ $20m. KMD stock turn announced recently was under 2, this must be over 4 again surely which is turning stock more frequently that the seasons of the year which is the holy grail of stock turn for apparel retailers.

Other observations from a real quick skim of the financial statements
Cash on hand up from $12.5m to $17.5m that's good. Depreciation is up to $8m per annum now so they can invest that sum annually in capex without it being new capex per se.

Total cost after tax to exit Storm including trading loss for the period to sale and loss of sale of fixtures and fittings appears to be $1.21m, a non repeating item for FY19.

[winner69]

NPBT up $14.0m on last year (not normalised)

How did they achieve this -

By selling more stuff $22.7m
From Gross Margin improvement $6.0m
reduced by higher expenses $14.7m (more stores, people etc)



Looking forward key is selling more stuff and keeping expenses under control. We cant rely upon an extra boost from higher margins


The bulk of that $6.0m Gross Margin improvment came in the first half of the year (a continuation of the improvment in H217). It appears as if Gross Margin has maxed out at just over 60% .....and of course there is the risk of margin pressure from a weaker NZD. Gross Margin in H2 held up at 60.5% even though that was lower than the 61.5% in H2 9but higher than the 59.7% in H217)

That's how I see it anyway ...key to profitability increases from here is selling heaps more stuff


The

[winner69]

Pretty amazing that they can get $277m sales out of inventory at cost price of just ~ $20m. KMD stock turn announced recently was under 2, this must be over 4 again surely which is turning stock more frequently that the seasons of the year which is the holy grail of stock turn for apparel retailers.

Other observations from a real quick skim of the financial statements
Cash on hand up from $12.5m to $17.5m that's good. Depreciation is up to $8m per annum now so they can invest that sum annually in capex without it being new capex per se.

Total cost after tax to exit Storm including trading loss for the period to sale and loss of sale of fixtures and fittings appears to be $1.21m, a non repeating item for FY19.

By far the best listed retailer in NZ for managing margins and stock -- far superior than Briscoes and Kathmandu and The Warehouse not even in the same race


HLG Group performance in making money out of stock is -

GM % 61.3% with 5.1 stock turns in a year

This gives them a GMROI of $8.18


That GMROI means for every $ of stock (average over the year) held they generated $8.18 of Gross Margin (Briscoes do about $3)

In industry lingo a very impressive Turn/Earn Ratio of 3.1 (would be one of the best globally)


Now most retailers have reported 2018 numbers might update my data for comparative purposes

[h2so4]

That's how I see it anyway ...key to profitability increases from here is selling heaps more stuff

Fine by me. I’m happy with any growth strategy they wish.

[pg0220]

Awesome, glad that I bought in a few days ago. Jumped in primarily on an expectation of a good divvy, but what a bonus! Also I saw its growth potentiality with a growth of buy now pay later payment companies - they must have driven HLG's sales growth as well.

[pg0220]

Now dividend yield is sitting at 7.46% with the current price of $5.9 and full year divvy 44c, which looks pretty high. Should it push the SP to go even higher?

[percy]

An absolute stunning result.
Continuing strong growth prospects with Glassons in Australia.
Online growth is outstanding.

[Leftfield]

A great result that impresses this non holder. Well done to holders and those that signalled this to other Sharetraders!

[Timesurfer]

Great result. Would have bought some a few days were I not already facing liquidity issues from too many deals I couldn't refuse!

[winner69]

HLG activity generated $35.3m in cash

Spent (invested) a net $8.3m on store fitouts etc (capex)

That left $27.0m free cash

Giving $26.2m back to shareholders

That’s the way it should work

No debt, cash in the bank means a lot. Some say that’s lazy capital management but I reckon it’s a good situation. And some would say that the $88m of lease obligations is a form of capital anyway.

[percy]

I am not sure what I call lease obligations?
They are a liability that is ongoing and must be met.
All well and good,or acceptable, while the retailer is trading well, and is profitable.
But as an investors we must be well aware of the liability, should the retailer lose favour with its customers.
Seeing the growing online success HLG are achieving, does add to the strength of the business,making them less dependant on expensive store rents.
I do note HLG have great retail sites,although they pay through the nose for mall sites.
Always good seeing HLG closing stores, and recycling the capital into new better located stores.

[iceman]

HLG activity generated $35.3m in cash

Spent (invested) a net $8.3m on store fitouts etc (capex)

That left $27.0m free cash

Giving $26.2m back to shareholders

That’s the way it should work

No debt, cash in the bank means a lot. Some say that’s lazy capital management but I reckon it’s a good situation. And some would say that the $88m of lease obligations is a form of capital anyway.

Can't disagree with that winner. Great result and looking forward to the fat divie. Beyond even myself how I ended up with a retail stock as 25% of my portfolio but pleased about it right now :-)

[Raz]

HLG activity generated $35.3m in cash

Spent (invested) a net $8.3m on store fitouts etc (capex)

That left $27.0m free cash

Giving $26.2m back to shareholders

That’s the way it should work

No debt, cash in the bank means a lot. Some say that’s lazy capital management but I reckon it’s a good situation. And some would say that the $88m of lease obligations is a form of capital anyway.

Cashflow is what it is all about and that is robust. Makes one wonder how so few in retail can actually pull it off.

[Maverick]

Cashflow is what it is all about and that is robust. Makes one wonder how so few in retail can actually pull it off.
i agree with you Raz that HLG make this seem too easy , why aren't the other guys keeping up? Just reading the "signs" I'll take a wager that Easybuy bites the dust within the next 12 months. They are acting like a company in serious distress.

[Maverick]

HLG activity generated $35.3m in cash

Spent (invested) a net $8.3m on store fitouts etc (capex)

That left $27.0m free cash

Giving $26.2m back to shareholders

That’s the way it should work

No debt, cash in the bank means a lot. Some say that’s lazy capital management but I reckon it’s a good situation. And some would say that the $88m of lease obligations is a form of capital anyway.



Here's a few more numbers to add your lot Winner. @$5.85 the divi is 7.5% after tax.(that's 10.4%gross) . A PE of 12.6 which is historically about right for HLG.

i reckon the Pe should actually rise to about 13.5 -14.5 now given the evidential growth with Aussy and online. That makes the share price about $6.20-$6.65 . But to temper that, the huge lift in profit last year included a bumper summer season so I won't be rushing out Monday add some more. Besides I'd have to sell some OCA first, sacre-Bleu.

[couta1]

Can't disagree with that winner. Great result and looking forward to the fat divie. Beyond even myself how I ended up with a retail stock as 25% of my portfolio but pleased about it right now :-) Doesn't matter how you ended up with that percentage, the main thing is that you are Extremely well positioned.

[Beagle]

Very impressive growth in online sales. Excellent result, superb stock turn, solid sales growth since balance date, great dividend. My sense is all the preceding is already substantively built into the current price.....whereas it was great buying 2 years ago at $2.70 :D

[pg0220]

Hmmmm.... Will SP drop further?

[Ninefingers]

Tis looking mighty tempting with that div coming up for Christmas.

[iceman]

Hmmmm.... Will SP drop further?

Hope not. As of now, return is down to 57% in the last 12 months. Scary !!

[Maverick]

Hmmmm.... Will SP drop further?
pg0220, I`m glad you raised the question. This share is soooo worth a mention in all of this upheaval.
The situation is;
-a growing company -well in Aussie and online at least.
-No debt,
-Layout of nearly 100 % of its profits , fully imputed.
-Steady programme of stores being modernised from existing cash flows to modern layouts (this KFC stores over the last 7 years).
-Shedding of no longer relevant "storm" brand.
-Loads of historical data to back up a favourable and consistent company.
-a PE of 5.15/.46 = 11.2
-plus whatever I`ve missed here.....
I was a seller at $6 bucks but at this level its a absolute bargain. Even if the share price was to never recover, the divi olone of nearly 9% after tax makes this a standout bargain.
Will it get lower? I don't know how it gots this low.

[Maverick]

How did you buy HLG shares at $9.03 iceman? ($9.03 x .57 = $5.15)

[winner69]

How did you buy HLG shares at $9.03 iceman? ($9.03 x .57 = $5.15)

Probably Iceman bought at around $3.28 or so

Current return now 57% (5.15/3.28)........was 80% plus ahead a while ago ....so 57% down from 80% plus

Get it

[couta1]

This thing is a steal at current price, it has singlehandedly kept my overall portfolio in the blue recently, I wish I had kept my even larger holding I held late last year.

[Maverick]

Probably Iceman bought at around $3.28 or so

Current return now 57% ........was 80% plus ahead a while ago ....so 57% down from 80% plus

Get it
Yes yes, just clearing up any confusion out there😁

[LAC]

This thing is a steal at current price, it has singlehandedly kept my overall portfolio in the blue recently, I wish I had kept my even larger holding I held late last year.
Same, if it wasnt for HLG and buying SUM about 2 years ago, I would all be red now.
Have topped up as welL today, could not determine the bottom so topped up at $5.10, which I think is reasonable especially when there a 24c divie for xmas:)

[pg0220]

I just bought small parcels...couldn't resist with a current divvie yield plus they already specified that sales for the first several weeks this FY has already been 7~8% higher than the previous FY.... With Christmas ahead soon, hopefully there is more upside from here..

[iceman]

Probably Iceman bought at around $3.28 or so

Current return now 57% (5.15/3.28)........was 80% plus ahead a while ago ....so 57% down from 80% plus

Get it

You're close but forget the very substantial dividends. My number included the already announced December dividend which it probably shouldn't have as its still trading CD. But the point is that despite the "crash" in the last couple of days, the return has been spectacular if you want to look at more than a day or two trading ! And the future is bright.

This return has nothing to do with what I bought HLG for, just the return for the last 12 months !

[see weed]

pg0220, I`m glad you raised the question. This share is soooo worth a mention in all of this upheaval.
The situation is;
-a growing company -well in Aussie and online at least.
-No debt,
-Layout of nearly 100 % of its profits , fully imputed.
-Steady programme of stores being modernised from existing cash flows to modern layouts (this KFC stores over the last 7 years).
-Shedding of no longer relevant "storm" brand.
-Loads of historical data to back up a favourable and consistent company.
-a PE of 5.15/.46 = 11.2
-plus whatever I`ve missed here.....
I was a seller at $6 bucks but at this level its a absolute bargain. Even if the share price was to never recover, the divi olone of nearly 9% after tax makes this a standout bargain.
Will it get lower? I don't know how it gots this low.
Hi Mav, good buying a year ago. Bought a sh.t load from 3.36 to 3.57 on 2/11/17 to 7/12/17 just for the $20k div. then sold them again over a few weeks later and made a sh.t load. If it came back down to the low to mid to late 4s I would buy more. ps Or maybe a very low 5

[pg0220]

Hi Mav, good buying a year ago. Bought a sh.t load from 3.36 to 3.57 on 2/11/17 to 7/12/17 just for the $20k div. then sold them again over a few weeks later and made a sh.t load. If it came back down to the low to mid to late 4s I would buy more. ps Or maybe a very low 5
It is now at low $5 though!

[Beagle]

I think the fuel price is going to act like a portable vacuum cleaner and hoover out a lot of disposable income but in discussing that with Couta1 this afternoon he correctly pointed out this is a N.Z. specific problem and fuel is still pretty reasonable in Australia. I do note however that the majority of HLG's sales are in N.Z.
I am a little less optimistic now, what with Cindy's Kindy playing tag team with the fuel companies to see who can fleece us the most.

[couta1]

It is now at low $5 though! Your looking for a crystal ball answer, good value is good value whether it goes lower or not.

[Maverick]

Your looking for a crystal ball answer, good value is good value whether it goes lower or not.
Dam that's wise. Nicely said

[McGinty]

Quite a bit of selling on Friday (3 times avg volume), but I saw this as opportunity and doubled my holding at $5.11 and $5.15.

Looking at the chart I would expect the price to head back up to the $5.60 level (old support - now resistance), which should provide a bit of a buffer when buying in at these levels.

Good company, no debt and 2 good dividends to come over the next 6 months. It just got caught up in the market sell off.

Happy holding and looking forward to the next market update around Dec's AGM :-)

[oldtech]

I took the opportunity to top up this morning also McGinty ... still a happy holder :)

[IAK]

Hmmm Director Chris Reid building a new deck.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/325318/288597.pdf

[couta1]

Hmmm Director Chris Reid building a new deck.

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/325318/288597.pdf Pretty much a small fry shareholder in comparison to Mr Glasson who owns just shy of 12 million shares. PS-Perhaps he could have a glass of A2 sitting on his new deck once built.

[Beagle]

Pretty late disclosure. My understanding is it must be within 5 working days.

[couta1]

Pretty late disclosure. My understanding is it must be within 5 working days. Only 3 working days late.Lol

[Beagle]

Only 3 working days late.Lol

Probably too busy consulting with builders regarding his new deck lol

[peat]

is there no supervision or penalty for this transgression though?
Imagine if this was Hrdlicka

[Beagle]

is there no supervision or penalty for this transgression though?
Imagine if this was Hrdlicka

I guess if someone made a formal complaint to the NZX he might get the usual slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket...I'll bet he's terrified lol

[IAK]

Probably too busy consulting with builders regarding his new deck lol
Classic lol.

[peat]

I guess if someone made a formal complaint to the NZX he might get the usual slap over the wrist with a wet bus ticket...I'll bet he's terrified lol

But aren't they the ones meant to be enforcing the rules. Why does someone have to complain.
It could be an instant fine, predetermined say as % of the transaction, increasing a % each day it is reported late.

Interesting to contrast the success of this co with Michael Hill. Obviously not the same sector but both retailing in NZ and Oz.

[Beagle]

But aren't they the ones meant to be enforcing the rules. Why does someone have to complain.
It could be an instant fine, predetermined say as % of the transaction, increasing a % each day it is reported late. Because some would argue they're poodles and need some proper teeth

Interesting to contrast the success of this co with Michael Hill. Obviously not the same sector but both retailing in NZ and Oz.

Yeah, talk about chalk and cheese !

[couta1]

Im just loving this stock over the last month, keeping me in the blue overall despite a train wreck of a day, what's not to love, low beta equals low volatility coupled with a small overseas ownership equals stability in troubled times.Lol

[couta1]

What a wee Gem on a yucky market day, counting my blessings here.

[sb9]

What a wee Gem on a yucky market day, counting my blessings here.

Yes, its quite refreshing to see a retail stock like HLG doing well in an otherwise dull market.

And someone is keen too, may be that Aussie outfit that bought earlier in the year...



2
10
12:47:37 pm
550
200,000
$1,100,000
Off market

[sb9]

And its currently trading cum-divvy of a fully imputed juicy 24c coming up in time for Dec festive season.

[winner69]

NZD getting stronger ....that’s good

Beagle - what’s happened to the NZD going to 62 cents US

[Beagle]

NZD getting stronger ....that’s good

Beagle - what’s happened to the NZD going to 62 cents US


:lol: Beagle bait...fishing no good today :)

[Timesurfer]

Was that Couta hoovering up the small fry today? Somebody got what has to be easy money with the divvy forth coming.
Unfortunatly with the pocket money I had available I had to make a call and went with more SKO instead.

[Beagle]

NZD getting stronger ....that’s good

Beagle - what’s happened to the NZD going to 62 cents US

Up over 68 cents U.S. now. Forecasting exchange rates is like forecasting the weather lol

[BlackPeter]

Up over 68 cents U.S. now. Forecasting exchange rates is like forecasting the weather lol

Thats not fair to the meteorologists ...

[winner69]

Thats not fair to the meteorologists ...

Weather forecasters accuracy benchmark is the percentage of number of days when the weather is similar to the day before .....beat that and you a guru forecaster

Wonder if Neils Bohr would agree

[winner69]

Up over 68 cents U.S. now. Forecasting exchange rates is like forecasting the weather lol

How often have I told you to stop reading / believing what those bank economist / commentators say

Bad for your health

[BlackPeter]

Weather forecasters accuracy benchmark is the percentage of number of days when the weather is similar to the day before .....beat that and you a guru forecaster

Wonder if Neils Bohr would agree

Actually - weather forecasts are better these days, but yes, it used to be like that in the good old times.

Not sure, though predictions of currency exchange rates could keep pace with the recent improvements in meteorology.

But anyway - while both currency exchange rates as well as the weather are highly relevant to HLG's results - comparing the forecast accuracy of both disciplines are probably not. Shall hold my peace ...

[Beagle]

How often have I told you to stop reading / believing what those bank economist / commentators say

Bad for your health

Interesting dichotomy in economic indicators. On one hand we have one survey after another saying business and consumer confidence is plumbing decade lows and on the other record high employments level's. At least weather forecasters get to look out the window and see what's about to hit them in the face :) Must admit I did have a good laugh about ANZ's pick for the U.K. / N.Z. exchange rate for Dec 2019 at 42 pence. How could they possibly have any meaningful insight into this without even knowing the outcome of Brexit negotiations ? Its just a guess, nothing more and nothing less.
Main thing is we are back to the normal currency level for HLG so when they're ordering their autumn and winter stock everything is fine and dandy.

[mikeybycrikey]

Must admit I did have a good laugh about ANZ's pick for the U.K. / N.Z. exchange rate for Dec 2019 at 42 pence. How could they possibly have any meaningful insight into this without even knowing the outcome of Brexit negotiations ?

Did they just go with "reversion to the mean" as their basis for that forecast? Seems totally absurd.

That would assume some sort of competent policy making in the UK and we've seen none of that in the past 2 years.

[Beagle]

Did they just go with "reversion to the mean" as their basis for that forecast? Seems totally absurd.

That would assume some sort of competent policy making in the UK and we've seen none of that in the past 2 years.

Hard to figure that's for sure. I think ANZ based on their own survey's have taken a fairly dim view on the economic prospects for 2019 as far as N.Z. is concerned.
Like all things time will tell. We are basically at full employment, (theories abound suggesting about 4% of able bodied people simply don't want to work), interest rates from some banks for 2 year money are at 3.99%, a record low I have never seen in 40 years and spring is here in full force. I think people will be out spending again because that's what they do when the weather improves and summer is coming so I think HLG are good buying at the current price trading cum a 24 cent fully imputed dividend next month.

[macduffy]

One less competitor for HLG in Aussie.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-11-15/roger-david-to-shut-down-before-christmas/10499208?section=business

[sb9]

Topped a few more this morning, can't ignore upcoming nice juicy divvy of 24c fully imputed. Very handy for some festive and holiday spending.

[Beagle]

Topped a few more this morning, can't ignore upcoming nice juicy divvy of 24c fully imputed. Very handy for some festive and holiday spending.

I couldn't agree more. Timing of that dividend as well as its size makes it extra sweet. Only really paying about ~ $5 theoretical ex divvy price at the current level which I think is fundamentally very sound buying. I topped up last week...a bit early and at a bit higher than the current price but I think I am now well positioned :)

[sb9]

I couldn't agree more. Timing of that dividend as well as its size makes it extra sweet. Only really paying about ~ $5 theoretical ex divvy price at the current level which I think is fundamentally very sound buying. I topped up last week...a bit early and at a bit higher than the current price but I think I am now well positioned :)

Yeah, was in two minds last week to top up or not and somehow never did. And market sentiment this week helped to jump on board today seeing where its trading currently.

[thestg]

Topped a few more this morning, can't ignore upcoming nice juicy divvy of 24c fully imputed. Very handy for some festive and holiday spending.
Also topped up this morning. Good price at around $5,30.

[JayRiggs]

Random thought this morning. Could HLG be lining up for an acquisition? I was thinking something like JeansWest or JustJeans. CottonOn.
Maybe a capital raise to acquire like Kathmandu did for Oboz.
Completely random thoughts!

[Filthy]

Random thought this morning. Could HLG be lining up for an acquisition? I was thinking something like JeansWest or JustJeans. CottonOn.
Maybe a capital raise to acquire like Kathmandu did for Oboz.
Completely random thoughts!

unlikely imo. reckon they will stick to their knitting.

[Beagle]

unlikely imo. reckon they will stick to their knitting.

Oh my goodness, their knitting looks absolutely "terrible" lol https://www.glassons.com/

[waikare]

Oh my goodness, their knitting looks absolutely "terrible" lol https://www.glassons.com/

Beagle, as well as having a good noise for smell, your eyesight isn't too bad either.

[Beagle]

Beagle, as well as having a good noise for smell, your eyesight isn't too bad either.

Beagle is that you being a bad dog again, back in your kennel and stick to looking at the extremely attractive fundamentals (Mrs Beagle) :)

[LAC]

Hope they stick to expanding their current model, they have been good at that. Personally I wouldn’t like to see acquisitions at this stage when they have sooo much more growth in their current strategy

[Maverick]

Hope they stick to expanding their current model, they have been good at that. Personally I wouldn’t like to see acquisitions at this stage when they have sooo much more growth in their current strategy
There is no way HLG will do an acquisition. They have just shed "Storm" to get back to their 2 core brands and are expanding / remodelling at a nice, manageable pace. I would never call the directors unimaginative but they do seem to just chug away in a pragmatic way.
I really do mean that in best possible way though, they are doing a fabulous job just trundling along like they do with their current plan. "if it aint broke , dont fix it"

Just bought more like the rest of you, got to be an easy 5-10 % in this over the next 2 weeks.

[kiora]

There is no way HLG will do an acquisition. They have just shed "Storm" to get back to their 2 core brands and are expanding / remodelling at a nice, manageable pace. I would never call the directors unimaginative but they do seem to just chug away in a pragmatic way.
I really do mean that in best possible way though, they are doing a fabulous job just trundling along like they do with their current plan. "if it aint broke , dont fix it"

Just bought more like the rest of you, got to be an easy 5-10 % in this over the next 2 weeks.

Why not?
Outstanding result!
https://stocknessmonster.com/announcements/nbl.asx-2A1119293/

[sb9]

From Kathamandu's trading update from their ASM today....

"Mr Simonet added “we have achieved good sales growth leading into the key Christmas trading period, and we expect first half profit to be strongly above last year."

Hopefully when HLG can provide similar/stronger update when they have their ASM on 12th Dec.

[Maverick]

So the ascent begins........ classic pre - divi HLG :t_up:

[sb9]

So the ascent begins........ classic pre - divi HLG :t_up:

Also partly helped by sentiment from Kathmandu's positive trading update today.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12166141

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12166141

Truly amazing how people are spending at the moment ...the worlds a happy place eh ..and HLG stores will be creaming it

Surprised the downersvon HLG haven’t pointed this out
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108918012/hm-to-open-new-tauranga-store-in-2019

[Beagle]

Truly amazing how people are spending at the moment ...the worlds a happy place eh ..and HLG stores will be creaming it

[/url]
No wonder online spending is going through the roof, people getting excited about their digital presence :) https://www.glassons.com/

[JoeM]

Do you think we will get a trading update on Monday? Happened last year on the 1/12

[sb9]

Do you think we will get a trading update on Monday? Happened last year on the 1/12

If its materially significant like last year it was higher by 15% than previous. Here's hoping they would announce a trading update come Monday. Then it'll be BOOM time $6+ here we come.

[Beagle]

Do you think we will get a trading update on Monday? Happened last year on the 1/12

Good question...Either then or at the annual meeting on 12 December. The key is to be well positioned before hand :)

[sb9]

No wonder online spending is going through the roof, people getting excited about their digital presence :) https://www.glassons.com/

Just wondering if you frequent that page at regular intervals :p;)

[winner69]

If its materially significant like last year it was higher by 15% than previous. Here's hoping they would announce a trading update come Monday. Then it'll be BOOM time $6+ here we come.

Growth will be more than your 15% number sb9

Only 6 bucks .....jeez it was much more than that a while ago and the world is happier now .....and no problems with their margins now.

Jeez if Kathmandu can do well HLG are doing much better

[DarkHorse]

Hallensteins in Queen St Ak had people queuing for changing rooms Friday afternoon, and Glassons next door looked really busy too. I was impressed with the stock - much improved on a couple of years ago in terms of appealing to all ages.

[winner69]

Consumer Confidence pretty high

Hallensteins and Glassons to have a boomer summer season

Record sales I reckon ....double digit growth and good margins equals record profits

[winner69]

HLG longest serving member on the NZX

From linked article:
retailer's market value has increased from $232 million to just $337m in the past 25 years as it has struggled to make sustained progress in challenging Australasian retail market conditions.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=12169126&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+1+ December+2018

So stuff all capital returns (most of it come lrecently but it’s had it’s up and downs) since listing but that’s what you would expect when most of the profits have been paid out as dividends over the years

[Beagle]

HLG longest serving member on the NZX

From linked article:
retailer's market value has increased from $232 million to just $337m in the past 25 years as it has struggled to make sustained progress in challenging Australasian retail market conditions.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/best-of-business-analysis/news/article.cfm?c_id=1501241&objectid=12169126&utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+1+ December+2018

So stuff all capital returns (most of it come lrecently but it’s had it’s up and downs) since listing but that’s what you would expect when most of the profits have been paid out as dividends over the years A fact completely overlooked by Gaynor. HLG has a stellar record as a dividend yield stock and anyone fortunate enough to follow the dog who picked the bottom a couple of years ago at $2.70 has done handsomely well with capital gains too. Quite apart from that I think they're just coming into their stride with their Glassons expansion in Australia. Plenty more growth to come over there :D I also think its notable that HLG are N.Z.'s oldest listed company. Plenty of companies come and go over the years...there's something I really like about long established companies.

[winner69]

A fact completely overlooked by Gaynor. HLG has a stellar record as a dividend yield stock and anyone fortunate enough to follow the dog who picked the bottom a couple of years ago at $2.70 has done handsomely well with capital gains too. Quite apart from that I think they're just coming into their stride with their Glassons expansion in Australia. Plenty more growth to come over there :D I also think its notable that HLG are N.Z.'s oldest listed company. Plenty of companies come and go over the years...there's something I really like about long established companies.


Gaynor said - The retailer's market value has increased from $232 million to just $337m in the past 25 years as it has struggled to make sustained progress in challenging Australasian retail market conditions.

Market value increased at 1.5% per year over those 25 years. When you were a canny old dog and bought at 270 two years ago the market value was less than $200m - quite a lot less than 23 years prior.


I don't know hw many zillions HLG have made in those 25 years but the accounts show they have only retained $23m of those earnings - the rest has been paid out in dividends (as yoy point out). And in that time I don't think they have gone cap in hand to shareholders asking for more cash (unlike some other companies)

Beagles, you'll disagree (probably vehemently) but you can get away from the fact that retail is hard and HLG is a real cyclical stock.One day in the future the HLG share price will be below $3 again ....and the divie won't be anywhere near as high as it today. Dollars to donuts that will happen.

But you being the canny 'investor' you are would have sold out over $5 (or maybe over $6) and be waiting for the $2.50 again eh.

Though some (like the Glassons etc) will just keep holding and collecting diviidends and not even worry about the share price -- knowing that one day the greater fool will come along and pay over the odds for company

Keep an eye on that squiggly line on the chart if the share price worries you - half cycles lull you into a false sense of security, its the full cycle that counts

[Baa_Baa]

The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLG.NZ/chart?p=HLG.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW9 kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo0LjU5MDcxNzI5OTU3O DA1OSwidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSw iY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJjYW5kbGUiL CJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSw iYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiO iJsb2ciLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSw iZGlzcGxheSI6IkhMRy5OWiIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0I iwidG9wIjowfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI 6Miwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0c nVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3J wb3JhdGUiOltdLCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiO m51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkhMRy5OWiIsInN 5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJITEcuTloifSwicGVya W9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJzZXRTcGF uIjpudWxsfV0sInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvb CB1bmRyIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJ pZCI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sI m91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24 gVm9sdW1lIjoiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnR OYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSwwK SI6eyJ0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTU iLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsI iwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSw wKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMTUsQyxlbWEsMCkif Swib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMwMDljNTYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJ jaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhc nQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXBlIjo ibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiNTAiLCJGaWVsZCI6I kNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0Ijo wLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsY XkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI 6eyJNQSI6IiNmZmEzM2YifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhc mFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1 h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxlbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wd XRzIjp7IlBlcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJ UeXBlIjoiZXhwb25lbnRpYWwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4 oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIx tYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsZW1hLDApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiO iIjZGMxNDJkIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJ zIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19LCLigIxtYeKAjCAoM jAwLEMsbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlB lcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoic 2ltcGxlIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDA sQyxtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsb WEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMyYmJjZmYifSwicGF uZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lI joiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSI6eyJ 0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTAwIiwiR mllbGQiOiJDbG9zZSIsIlR5cGUiOiJzaW1wbGUiLCJPZmZzZXQ iOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDEwMCxDLG1hLDApIiwiZGlzc GxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXR zIjp7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19)), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

History however is no guarantee of the future.

[winner69]

The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLG.NZ/chart?p=HLG.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW9 kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo0LjU5MDcxNzI5OTU3O DA1OSwidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSw iY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJjYW5kbGUiL CJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSw iYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiO iJsb2ciLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSw iZGlzcGxheSI6IkhMRy5OWiIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0I iwidG9wIjowfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI 6Miwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0c nVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3J wb3JhdGUiOltdLCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiO m51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkhMRy5OWiIsInN 5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJITEcuTloifSwicGVya W9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJzZXRTcGF uIjpudWxsfV0sInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvb CB1bmRyIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJ pZCI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sI m91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24 gVm9sdW1lIjoiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnR OYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSwwK SI6eyJ0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTU iLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsI iwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSw wKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMTUsQyxlbWEsMCkif Swib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMwMDljNTYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJ jaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhc nQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXBlIjo ibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiNTAiLCJGaWVsZCI6I kNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0Ijo wLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsY XkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI 6eyJNQSI6IiNmZmEzM2YifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhc mFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1 h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxlbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wd XRzIjp7IlBlcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJ UeXBlIjoiZXhwb25lbnRpYWwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4 oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIx tYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsZW1hLDApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiO iIjZGMxNDJkIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJ zIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19LCLigIxtYeKAjCAoM jAwLEMsbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlB lcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoic 2ltcGxlIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDA sQyxtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsb WEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMyYmJjZmYifSwicGF uZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lI joiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSI6eyJ 0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTAwIiwiR mllbGQiOiJDbG9zZSIsIlR5cGUiOiJzaW1wbGUiLCJPZmZzZXQ iOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDEwMCxDLG1hLDApIiwiZGlzc GxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXR zIjp7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19)), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

History however is no guarantee of the future.

Cool chart eh baabaa

Not surprisingly earnings follow much the same trend

[Snow Leopard]

The longterm chart is frightening like a roller coaster (try the monthly log scale back to 2000 (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLG.NZ/chart?p=HLG.NZ#eyJpbnRlcnZhbCI6Im1vbnRoIiwicGVyaW9 kaWNpdHkiOjEsImNhbmRsZVdpZHRoIjo0LjU5MDcxNzI5OTU3O DA1OSwidm9sdW1lVW5kZXJsYXkiOnRydWUsImFkaiI6dHJ1ZSw iY3Jvc3NoYWlyIjp0cnVlLCJjaGFydFR5cGUiOiJjYW5kbGUiL CJleHRlbmRlZCI6ZmFsc2UsIm1hcmtldFNlc3Npb25zIjp7fSw iYWdncmVnYXRpb25UeXBlIjoib2hsYyIsImNoYXJ0U2NhbGUiO iJsb2ciLCJwYW5lbHMiOnsiY2hhcnQiOnsicGVyY2VudCI6MSw iZGlzcGxheSI6IkhMRy5OWiIsImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0I iwidG9wIjowfX0sInNldFNwYW4iOm51bGwsImxpbmVXaWR0aCI 6Miwic3RyaXBlZEJhY2tncm91ZCI6dHJ1ZSwiZXZlbnRzIjp0c nVlLCJjb2xvciI6IiMwMDgxZjIiLCJldmVudE1hcCI6eyJjb3J wb3JhdGUiOltdLCJzaWdEZXYiOnt9fSwiY3VzdG9tUmFuZ2UiO m51bGwsInN5bWJvbHMiOlt7InN5bWJvbCI6IkhMRy5OWiIsInN 5bWJvbE9iamVjdCI6eyJzeW1ib2wiOiJITEcuTloifSwicGVya W9kaWNpdHkiOjEsImludGVydmFsIjoibW9udGgiLCJzZXRTcGF uIjpudWxsfV0sInJhbmdlIjpudWxsLCJzdHVkaWVzIjp7InZvb CB1bmRyIjp7InR5cGUiOiJ2b2wgdW5kciIsImlucHV0cyI6eyJ pZCI6InZvbCB1bmRyIiwiZGlzcGxheSI6InZvbCB1bmRyIn0sI m91dHB1dHMiOnsiVXAgVm9sdW1lIjoiIzAwYjA2MSIsIkRvd24 gVm9sdW1lIjoiI0ZGMzMzQSJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJ3aWR0aEZhY3RvciI6MC40NSwiY2hhcnR OYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSwwK SI6eyJ0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTU iLCJGaWVsZCI6IkNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsI iwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxNSxDLGVtYSw wKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMTUsQyxlbWEsMCkif Swib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMwMDljNTYifSwicGFuZWwiOiJ jaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhc nQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSI6eyJ0eXBlIjo ibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiNTAiLCJGaWVsZCI6I kNsb3NlIiwiVHlwZSI6ImV4cG9uZW50aWFsIiwiT2Zmc2V0Ijo wLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICg1MCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsY XkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoNTAsQyxlbWEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI 6eyJNQSI6IiNmZmEzM2YifSwicGFuZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhc mFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lIjoiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1 h4oCMICgyMDAsQyxlbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wd XRzIjp7IlBlcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJ UeXBlIjoiZXhwb25lbnRpYWwiLCJPZmZzZXQiOjAsImlkIjoi4 oCMbWHigIwgKDIwMCxDLGVtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIx tYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsZW1hLDApIn0sIm91dHB1dHMiOnsiTUEiO iIjZGMxNDJkIn0sInBhbmVsIjoiY2hhcnQiLCJwYXJhbWV0ZXJ zIjp7ImNoYXJ0TmFtZSI6ImNoYXJ0In19LCLigIxtYeKAjCAoM jAwLEMsbWEsMCkiOnsidHlwZSI6Im1hIiwiaW5wdXRzIjp7IlB lcmlvZCI6IjIwMCIsIkZpZWxkIjoiQ2xvc2UiLCJUeXBlIjoic 2ltcGxlIiwiT2Zmc2V0IjowLCJpZCI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgyMDA sQyxtYSwwKSIsImRpc3BsYXkiOiLigIxtYeKAjCAoMjAwLEMsb WEsMCkifSwib3V0cHV0cyI6eyJNQSI6IiMyYmJjZmYifSwicGF uZWwiOiJjaGFydCIsInBhcmFtZXRlcnMiOnsiY2hhcnROYW1lI joiY2hhcnQifX0sIuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSI6eyJ 0eXBlIjoibWEiLCJpbnB1dHMiOnsiUGVyaW9kIjoiMTAwIiwiR mllbGQiOiJDbG9zZSIsIlR5cGUiOiJzaW1wbGUiLCJPZmZzZXQ iOjAsImlkIjoi4oCMbWHigIwgKDEwMCxDLG1hLDApIiwiZGlzc GxheSI6IuKAjG1h4oCMICgxMDAsQyxtYSwwKSJ9LCJvdXRwdXR zIjp7Ik1BIjoiI2FkNmVmZiJ9LCJwYW5lbCI6ImNoYXJ0Iiwic GFyYW1ldGVycyI6eyJjaGFydE5hbWUiOiJjaGFydCJ9fX19)), you'd need a tailored strategy for this cyclical, for example you might only own it for the dividends and you'd either ignore the capital fluctuations or accumulate the full-cycle bottoms or thereabouts if you spot them. That'd be a handsome return on investment over 25 years but it would take some stomach to ride out the down cycles' loss of capital without freaking and exiting the strategy. It does look like a top is in at the moment.

History however is no guarantee of the future.

Nice steady uptrend there, higher highs :t_up: and higher lows :t_up:.

Surprised the TA'ers can not see it :p .

[dreamcatcher]

Was in the clothing trade for many years very cyclical 2 good years, 2 average years, 2 terrible years with pattern repeating. Best trading times when opening new stores and xmas. Generally profit is in the left over stock with broken sizes ranges, bad styles and unpopular colours.Pays good dividend because clothing retail is high risk stock.

Smart money probably already sold down as there is little liquidity to exit quickly.

[Beagle]

Sticking with my own nose for value, (a Beagle always follows his nose). I think they've finally cracked the Australian retail nut with their new Glassons euro style stores in Australia and there's a very sound case for continuing to hold. The naysayers were all over this when I was buying at $2.70 telling retail was dead ad nauseum. They were wrong then and they're wrong now.

[winner69]

Sticking with my own nose for value, (a Beagle always follows his nose). I think they've finally cracked the Australian retail nut with their new Glassons euro style stores in Australia and there's a very sound case for continuing to hold. The naysayers were all over this when I was buying at $2.70 telling retail was dead ad nauseum. They were wrong then and they're wrong now.

Yep looking exceptionally good in the short and maybe medium term ......

......but one day profits will fall and share price will be sub $3 again ..that’s the nature of cyclical businesses

[couta1]

Was in the clothing trade for many years very cyclical 2 good years, 2 average years, 2 terrible years with pattern repeating. Best trading times when opening new stores and xmas. Generally profit is in the left over stock with broken sizes ranges, bad styles and unpopular colours.Pays good dividend because clothing retail is high risk stock.

Smart money probably already sold down as there is little liquidity to exit quickly. Actually if you have a look at the top shareholder base no smart money has sold any and why on Earth would they? no sight of a bend at the end so hold firm.PS-I consider myself part of that smart money when it comes to this stock.

[sb9]

USD cross rate now back over 69c, bodes well for this week's trading along with scrip going ex-div on 7th Dec.

$6 here we come....

[couta1]

HaHa I love the latest announcement, up 4.8% on the same period as last year yet trading conditions remain tough on both sides of the ditch.

[Beagle]

4.8% up and they don't have the loss making storm brand this year so that has to be taken into account.

[percy]

HaHa I love the latest announcement, up 4.8% on the same period as last year yet trading conditions remain tough on both sides of the ditch.

They are doing very well in a very tough retail market.
Not easy out there.
Wise not making any projections,for Christmas and January..

[Beagle]

They are doing very well in a very tough retail market.
Not easy out there.
Wise not making any projections,for Christmas and January..

Petrol prices affect discretionary retail spend and have come down materially on both sides of the Tasman in the last couple of weeks.

[Maverick]

4.8% up and they don't have the loss making storm brand this year so that has to be taken into account.
Thats 4.8 % on top of last years increase for the same period of 15%. What a terrific update but a little caution is warranted though.
Last year they added they had improved margins and the profit would easily exceed the prior years profit. They were unusually bullish which was surprising as they aren't a very talkative bunch.

This year they haven't said either of those. In fact they said trading conditions have been "tough both sides of the Tasman." Plus I think they have a few more stores now to generate the extra sales.
So , yes a fantastic starting point , and without the handbrake of "storm" as pointed out by Beagle, but they have added caution rather than last years enthusiasm.

I`m a big fan of HLG but I`m a little nervous at these share price levels, which given todays update, in my humble opinion, seems about right for now until we hear more about the margins achieved.

[percy]

Petrol prices affect discretionary retail spend and have come down materially on both sides of the Tasman in the last couple of weeks.

Agreed....However it is often your competitors getting things wrong, and their discounting that can affect you the most.

[bull....]

Yep looking exceptionally good in the short and maybe medium term ......

......but one day profits will fall and share price will be sub $3 again ..that’s the nature of cyclical businesses

so true i see hallenstein says the going getting tough

Going gets tough for Hallenstein Glassonhttps://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12170480

[winner69]

So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’

[Beagle]

So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’

Coming on the back of very good growth in the previous two years and the exit from the loss making storm brand (reducing sales this period compared to last) I think that's more than satisfactory but I agree with Maverick's post above and my sense is in the mid $5's, it's about fair value. I know I was hoping for a little more sales growth but the reality is that high fuel prices prevailing in October and much of November have sucked a bit of wind out of the retail sector. My sense is now that those prices have reverted to more normal level's we should see some confidence coming back into consumer spending over the Christmas holiday season. Good hold for yield. Trades cum a 24 cent fully imputed dividend, (as we all know).

[couta1]

So 4.9% sales growth disappoints the ‘market’ I think you mean disappoints the twitchy reef fish winner, haven't seen the true market speaking on this stock since that Aussie crowd were buying up big otherwise it's just low volume/low liquidity noise, will be good sales over the next 2 months so no worries.PS-Would be very happy to see this or OCA included in the NZX50 in the not too distant future.

[winner69]

Coming on the back of very good growth in the previous two years and the exit from the loss making storm brand (reducing sales this period compared to last) I think that's more than satisfactory......

Yes, last year’s announcement was sales up 15% so this year’s 5% is coming on the back of that good growth. Don’t understand what you getting at innssying that but whatever sales growth is slowing / moderating,

Last year’s 15% was when share price was about 340 and the excitment of that news took the share price up 25%. Doubt whether +5% will do much to the share price at this level.

Wonder what same store sales growth was ...hmmm

[Beagle]

Yes, last year’s announcement was sales up 15% so this year’s 5% is coming on the back of that good growth. Don’t understand what you getting at innssying that but whatever sales growth is slowing / moderating,

Last year’s 15% was when share price was about 340 and the excitment of that news took the share price up 25%. Doubt whether +5% will do much to the share price at this level.

Wonder what same store sales growth was ...hmmm

All I'm saying mate is last year the loss making Storm brand made up 2% of the gross sales so a 4.8% gross sales increase on a normalized basis is more like a 6.8% increase on a like for like basis comparing Glassons and Hallensteins sales brands only, year on year.
Agree that's probably already baked into the cake at this price but nonetheless that's a solid result compounding on the previous two years solid sales increases. HLG does mention at some length in the annual report the effect of the increased petrol prices, which as mentioned earlier, has since abated. Its not the only retail company to feel the effect of rising petrol prices over the last few months is it ! Likewise the exchange rate challenge has also recently abated and we're back in the normal zone v the $US

[percy]

In the past two years, the big sales growth has come from online,so knowing the per store growth is of interest,however it will all come down to margin over Christmas and January,and that is anyone's guess at this early stage..

[winner69]

Nice steady uptrend there, higher highs :t_up: and higher lows :t_up:.

Surprised the TA'ers can not see it :p .

Moosie (I think) wood reckon a falling wedge from recent high of 630 odd

[couta1]

Moosie (I think) reckons a falling wedge from recent high of 630 odd Moosies TA predictions about 50% right aye, a coin toss would give the same result.Lol

[winner69]

Moosies TA predictions about 50% right aye, a coin toss would give the same result.Lol

Maybe falling wedges are good ...I’ve no idea

But 635 seems so far away ....14% off highs is quite a lot aye

[Beagle]

This old dog quite a while back reckoned about $5.50 was fair value and sold down half. Anything over that was really on the back of the new Australian institution paying up to get a decent stake, (initial bout of irrational exuberance ?), so settling back to around my fair assessed value doesn't surprise me.

[McGinty]

Actually if you have a look at the top shareholder base no smart money has sold any and why on Earth would they? no sight of a bend at the end so hold firm.PS-I consider myself part of that smart money when it comes to this stock.

Looks like the smart money is selling out of HLG, looking at the last 2 trading days......Is that you Couta? :D

[couta1]

Looks like the smart money is selling out of HLG, looking at the last 2 trading days......Is that you Couta? :D No ways I haven't sold any since last November.

[winner69]

No ways I haven't sold any since last November.

...like last week?

[couta1]

...like last week? HaHa very astute there winner but no it was the November before the one just gone.