HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[dreamcatcher]

Ditto, my average is currently $4.398 and any chance to acquire more of this great divvy-generating stock AND average down is very tempting.

What would happen if they REDUCE or STOP divvies for this "great divvy-generating stock"

[winner69]

What would happen if they REDUCE or STOP divvies for this "great divvy-generating stock"

No way will STOP ever happen. Maybe a REDUCE sometime but even then 25/30 isn’t too bad.

If HLG ever stopped paying a divie that signals the market as really munted ...munted big time with many punters (sorry investors) crying into their milk.....and of course that would be a great time to buy.

[Bobdn]

Anyone who has actually invested over a reasonable length of time knows that dividends for a particular company can stop at any moment. There's no such thing as a sure bet. Over 32 years I've seen this happen for a number of great companies. It doesn't necessarily mean the whole market is "munted" either. The market is doing ok at the moment, Sear's investors not so much so.

I have no HLG by the way or any knowledge of the company. I just shudder when I read these statements.

[Beagle]

You've got to admire the fact that HLG is the oldest company on the NZX and has a nice clean balance sheet and a superb long term track record as a great and reliable dividend payer. That's got to be worth something in terms of a PE premium compared to some other Johnny's come lately companies like KMD that promise strong growth and look set to deliver negative eps growth.
I'm just not so sure this is the ideal time to be holding them as something a bit different appears to be going on with retail at the moment. Maybe its just that last summer was an absolute belter in terms of weather all summer long and December 2018 was a flop, (better so far this month).

[winner69]

Anyone who has actually invested over a reasonable length of time knows that dividends for a particular company can stop at any moment. There's no such thing as a sure bet. Over 32 years I've seen this happen for a number of great companies. It doesn't necessarily mean the whole market is "munted" either. The market is doing ok at the moment, Sear's investors not so much so.

I have no HLG by the way or any knowledge of the company. I just shudder when I read these statements.

Yep bobdn ....no such thing as a sure bet in the markets....in my 50 years ‘investing’ I’ve seen many catastrophes ....maybe HLG not paying a dividend could be another one.

I am suitably rebuked

[oldtech]

What would happen if they REDUCE or STOP divvies for this "great divvy-generating stock"

Count me suitably rebuked too!

It's a good point dreamcatcher and one I must admit I hadn't thought of - well not in relation to HLG anyway. "old"-tech I may be, but still young and inexperienced at investing. So thanks for giving me something else to consider. ;)

[couta1]

Anyone who has actually invested over a reasonable length of time knows that dividends for a particular company can stop at any moment. There's no such thing as a sure bet. Over 32 years I've seen this happen for a number of great companies. It doesn't necessarily mean the whole market is "munted" either. The market is doing ok at the moment, Sear's investors not so much so.

I have no HLG by the way or any knowledge of the company. I just shudder when I read these statements. Yes but how many of those great companies you speak of had no debt?

[Bobdn]

My two recent examples are Chorus (of course) and this little company called BP a few years back because of a monster oil spill. The point is that stuff happens.

Since I've retired my risk appetite has subsided.

[carrom74]

Yes but how many of those great companies you speak of had no debt?

Can't think of a Retail company which is as good as HLG in terms of debt couta...

FINANCIAL STRENGTH



Company
industry
sector


Quick Ratio (MRQ)
1.03
1.75
1.21


Current Ratio (MRQ)
1.91
2.60
1.53


LT Debt to Equity (MRQ)
0.00
530.29
52.44


Total Debt to Equity (MRQ)
0.00
561.17
82.64


Interest Coverage (TTM)
--
4.12
3.98

[iceman]

My two recent examples are Chorus (of course) and this little company called BP a few years back because of a monster oil spill. The point is that stuff happens.

Since I've retired my risk appetite has subsided.

FBU another recent one. BUT,as couta1 correctly points out, HLG is somewhat on its own as it has no debt and is a very old and established company run by very experienced people in the industry. They also seem to be well on top of trend changes in clothing as well as changes in shopping habits such as the move to online shopping. I can not imagine the dividend flow stopping anytime soon and am happy to hold

[Beagle]

I think Iceman, Couta1 and others are right to have every confidence in the continuation of HLG's ability to pay dividends. An acid test for this would be for someone to research how well they held up through the GFC, arguably any retailers greatest test since the great depression of the 1930's. That said the size of the dividends is open to question...2019 shaping up as an interesting year
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/109716733/glitz-masks-stiff-competition-as-retailers-prepare-for-battle-in-2019?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+21+J anuary+2019
Disc: Not holding but interested in buying back at ~ $3.50.

[Lewylewylewy]

Do you worry that as customers are trained to buy online, they might get comfortable doing that, and suddenly find themselves in a much larger shopping mall with a lot more choice and cheaper options? Suddenly HLG will only have its brand providing incentive to purchase, and that will be in contention as well.

Personally, I like hlg shares. This year i could see them either going up significantly due to growth plans, or down significantly due to markets.

Despite the large divie, im waiting until they suffer poor market result to buy back in. The reason being that id rather buy at half price and get a 20% div than buy now at 10% (or whatever it is). This gives better return and less risk of my capital suffering a market failure.

As a foreigner and someone who doesn't do a lot of clothes shopping, I don't have any appreciation of nzers perception of this brand, so my afore online shopping remark parents greater risk to me as a (future) investor.

[percy]

HLG have an excellent online sales chanel that saw onlines sales growth of 63.6%,representing 12.89% of group turnover for the year ended 1st August 2018.
So not only are HLG making their bricks and mortar stores perform,closing poor performers and recycling the capital into refurbished and new stores,they are also growing their online sales dramatically.
Best described as a "total package.".Design,logistics,display,stock control,cash control/generation,dividend payer.
This is because they have a great board,and strong management with loyal experienced staff.

Currently I do not own any HLG ot LOV.yet I have both on my watch list.Most probably buy HLG first because of the imputated divie.

[Lewylewylewy]

Im undecided as to whether this is a trade or invest stock. Seems cyclic with highs and lows.

Buy at lows and sell at highs or buy at lows and enjoy dividends? I feel like with the risks to the industry, it's a trade stock.

[percy]

Im undecided as to whether this is a trade or invest stock. Seems cyclic with highs and lows.

Buy at lows and sell at highs or buy at lows and enjoy dividends? I feel like with the risks to the industry, it's a trade stock.

Maybe it is both?
Should you buy right there should be no reason for a long term investor to sell.
That is my intention,just a matter of timing.

[couta1]

Im undecided as to whether this is a trade or invest stock. Seems cyclic with highs and lows.

Buy at lows and sell at highs or buy at lows and enjoy dividends? I feel like with the risks to the industry, it's a trade stock. I have disciplined myself to hold the odd stock long term without touching and this is one of them,more than happy to add more if it drops much further.

[Snow Leopard]

....As a foreigner and someone who doesn't do a lot of clothes shopping...

What do you wear then? Fur? :ohmy:

[Lewylewylewy]

What do you wear then? Fur? :ohmy:

Lol funnily enough, Im currently covered in dog fur after playing with the dog. What a hilarious coincidence as i read this.

[DarkHorse]

Looking at it as a cyclical stock - so orthodox wisdom says Price-Sales is better indicator of value that Price-Earnings - the track record for the last 10 years suggests it's a sell at PS over 1.1 (hit at $6 last year) and a good buy below 0.8. Currently 0.86.
However, let's not forget that the company has been growing market share in NZ, and the successful expansion of Glassons in Australia does give offer a long growth runway - particularly for a well-managed company with high returns on capital.
(But also keeping in mind headwinds from a potential consumer downturn - particularly with falling house prices in Australia, increased competition, and the lower NZD and esp AUD. Margins currently 9.8%, low of 6.1% in 2016; would still leave P/cashflow around 10, allowing for ongoing high divies)

[Doug]

I think Iceman, Couta1 and others are right to have every confidence in the continuation of HLG's ability to pay dividends. An acid test for this would be for someone to research how well they held up through the GFC, arguably any retailers greatest test since the great depression of the 1930's. That said the size of the dividends is open to question...2019 shaping up as an interesting year
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/109716733/glitz-masks-stiff-competition-as-retailers-prepare-for-battle-in-2019?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Monday+21+J anuary+2019
Disc: Not holding but interested in buying back at ~ $3.50.

http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/viewdetails.php?loc=HLG

[winner69]

Looking at it as a cyclical stock - so orthodox wisdom says Price-Sales is better indicator of value that Price-Earnings - the track record for the last 10 years suggests it's a sell at PS over 1.1 (hit at $6 last year) and a good buy below 0.8. Currently 0.86.
However, let's not forget that the company has been growing market share in NZ, and the successful expansion of Glassons in Australia does give offer a long growth runway - particularly for a well-managed company with high returns on capital.
(But also keeping in mind headwinds from a potential consumer downturn - particularly with falling house prices in Australia, increased competition, and the lower NZD and esp AUD. Margins currently 9.8%, low of 6.1% in 2016; would still leave P/cashflow around 10, allowing for ongoing high divies)

Using price:sales good idea to measure market sentiment

Growing market share in NZ ....if you use Stats NZ Retail Trade Survey and Clothing,footwear sector as a proxy for market size HLG Group just holding share over the last couple of years.

[couta1]

http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/viewdetails.php?loc=HLG Yep and adding in the last 2 years we get an average divvy of 30.25c over the last 16 yrs which included some pretty tough years, none too shabby aye.

[Beagle]

http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/viewdetails.php?loc=HLG

Thanks Doug. Dividends held up really well even during the GFC which is surely the greatest stress test any company listed on the NZX has had, (none were around during the great depression of the 1930's) and with HLG the oldest company listed on the NZX it makes any suggestion the company would cut dividends completely look like nothing more than theoretical and quite idle speculation.
Even using the low point of the GFC payout of 21 cps fully imputed that gives a gross divvy of over 29 cps and a gross yield of at least 7.3% at the current price as an absolute bottom of the cycle minimum. No wonder many consider this to be arguably the "purrfect" dividend hounds stock.

[Beagle]

Yep and adding in the last 2 years we get an average divvy of 30.25c over the last 16 yrs which included some pretty tough years, none too shabby aye.

OMG that's incredible. So including many years of the GFC the average net dividend is 30.25 cps which inclusive of imputation credits is over 42 cps giving an average gross yield of over 10.5% at the current price of $4. No wonder the smart money just holds these forever...

[DarkHorse]

Using price:sales good idea to measure market sentiment

Growing market share in NZ ....if you use Stats NZ Retail Trade Survey and Clothing,footwear sector as a proxy for market size HLG Group just holding share over the last couple of years.

Thanks for the feedback Winner69. I was just thinking of the last full year -yoy nz sales growth of 8% for glassons and 6% for hallensteins (according to annual report) - which I assumed would be faster than overall spending growth in the sector?

[mikeybycrikey]

Interesting video from Forager Funds who have recently bought in to HLG. There probably isn’t too much new information in the video but it is good to get a different perspective from an Australian investment fund.

https://youtu.be/rvcU_e8ZL90

At the end of the video, they mention that they are invested at about 2.5%, which I assume means 2.5% of their AUD 150 million International Fund. So I guess that means somewhere close to 1 million shares, maybe.

Forager seems to be an interesting investment firm, since they are reasonable open about what they are doing and what they are thinking. They first came to my attention with a serious of blog posts during the demise of Dick Smith’s.

[peat]

Interesting video from Forager Funds who have recently bought in to HLG. There probably isn’t too much new information in the video but it is good to get a different perspective from an Australian investment fund.

https://youtu.be/rvcU_e8ZL90

At the end of the video, they mention that they are invested at about 2.5%, which I assume means 2.5% of their AUD 150 million International Fund. So I guess that means somewhere close to 1 million shares, maybe.

Forager seems to be an interesting investment firm, since they are reasonable open about what they are doing and what they are thinking. They first came to my attention with a serious of blog posts during the demise of Dick Smith’s.

wow that analyst is still wet behind the ears. did she just graduate last year ?
And she found out about Glassons by her own shopping experiences lol - I guess she's never going to cover BHP.

thanks for the link though mike

[kiwico]

wow that analyst is still wet behind the ears. did she just graduate last year ?
And she found out about Glassons by her own shopping experiences lol - I guess she's never going to cover BHP.

thanks for the link though mike

I attended their (Forager's) presentation in Wellington before Christmas - I have some their Australian (I guess it's now Australasian) fund. The analyst mentioned she'd been checking put HLG but I couldn't help feel they had bought it at a relatively high price. As a long time Intelligent Investor (https://www.intelligentinvestor.com.au/) subscriber it was interesting to meet Steve Johnson (he previously headed up II) but couldn't agree that the NZ Herald was the paper read by all of New Zealand.

[Lewylewylewy]

That dividend history completely changes my view of hlg. I always saw it as a div stock for covering "wants" in my retirement portfolio. I now see that it can represent the "needs" part of my income.

[BlackPeter]

wow that analyst is still wet behind the ears. did she just graduate last year ?
And she found out about Glassons by her own shopping experiences lol - I guess she's never going to cover BHP.

thanks for the link though mike

She graduated in 2013 with a finance degree and had already Researcher / Analyst positions for KPMG and Deloitte before she went to Forager.

So - not quite as green as you are implying - looks can be deceiving ...

Actually - what was wrong with her analysis?

[winner69]

She graduated in 2013 with a finance degree and had already Researcher / Analyst positions for KPMG and Deloitte before she went to Forager.

So - not quite as green as you are implying - looks can be deceiving ...

Actually - what was wrong with her analysis?

Not bad analysis ...especially if aimed at their own investors to keep them in touch with what’s going on.

Shame about the voice though

[Beagle]

That dividend history completely changes my view of hlg. I always saw it as a div stock for covering "wants" in my retirement portfolio. I now see that it can represent the "needs" part of my income.

You're certainly not the only one who is really impressed with how resilient their dividend was throughout the GFC. Question is what is the right timing for my reentry...and I don't think its right now.

[Lewylewylewy]

Im waiting for brexit turmoil, but i might buy a few prior, then average my very small parcel down if they drop.

Part of me thinks that they might enter a new, higher range to cycle in due to expansion. Also, I still has a suspicion that brexit won't be bad and the end of Mr Trumpingtons shutdown or trade war could set markets ablaze. So i don't want to miss out.

I suppose the sensible thing is to wait for them to drop back from this upper quartile, but i like having a small hold to have a hand in the game. Keeps me interested and sooths my desire to build my base of bottom draw shares.

[Beagle]

Might as well wait for the early February trading update as with all the retail sales data out its likely to be very disappointing.
Whether that's been factored into the share price already is a key question but there's also the overhang of the Gallghar (or whatever their name is) institutional holding of about 5% which if the recent sales rates by them are any indication will take them about 8 months to sell down their remaining stake. I think their overhang is a very pertinent factor in deciding when to buy. I think this is a late 2019 story...

[percy]

I agree it is prudent to wait for the February update,before making any buy decission.
While all retail can be down, sometimes there is a retailer who goes against the trend.
This happens as competitors get nervous and customers can smell their fear.
Customers like retailers who show no fear,and who always present new and exciting fashionable gear.

[winner69]

Interesting video from Forager Funds who have recently bought in to HLG. There probably isn’t too much new information in the video but it is good to get a different perspective from an Australian investment fund.

https://youtu.be/rvcU_e8ZL90

At the end of the video, they mention that they are invested at about 2.5%, which I assume means 2.5% of their AUD 150 million International Fund. So I guess that means somewhere close to 1 million shares, maybe.

Forager seems to be an interesting investment firm, since they are reasonable open about what they are doing and what they are thinking. They first came to my attention with a serious of blog posts during the demise of Dick Smith’s.

Was it them who bought that 1.8m off market after close today?

Could be the last of the Grahger shares?

[Beagle]

They only very recently went under the 5% disclosure threshold and volume has been light since then. 1.85m shares = ~ 3.1% of the capital so I would think they still have ~ a million still to be sold, (even if it was them selling this lot).

[ziptie]

Had wonder thru Glassons in One of Melbournes CBD Malls yesterday, was one of the busier Fast Fashion stores I saw in my travels yesterday, I was surprised considering all the doom and gloom comments I had been seeing on here of late.

That said foot traffic also doesn't necessarily translate to Sales. But I thought it was encouraging, KMD looked relatively Dry in comparison

[Beagle]

Not long to wait for the trading update...I can't see it being good news. The $64,000 question, (a lot more for some shareholders), is has this already been factored into the price at $4.00 ?

[winner69]

Wonder how challenging it has been for Glassons in Oz

December retail a bit weak ..clothing got a special mention in this article

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/retail-and-car-sales-hit-the-wall-in-sign-of-economy-slowdown-20190205-p50vqm.html

[couta1]

Wonder how challenging it has been for Glassons in Oz

December retail a bit weak ..clothing got a special mention in this article

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/retail-and-car-sales-hit-the-wall-in-sign-of-economy-slowdown-20190205-p50vqm.html You looking for some cheap shares aye winner, Gragher might sell you a few after the result.

[GR8DAY]

You looking for some cheap shares aye winner, Gragher might sell you a few after the result.


....nice one Couta. I think they're pretty damn cheap now......where else can you invest for an 11% return on quality. (speaking of which, when is the next divi due/ ex date anyone??)

[winner69]

....nice one Couta. I think they're pretty damn cheap now......where else can you invest for an 11% return on quality. (speaking of which, when is the next divi due/ ex date anyone??)

As they say “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is”

[Beagle]

I think a while back we concluded their average right across the cycle including the GFC was just over 30 cents per annum in dividends and I worked out at around $4.40 they are on a gross yield of 10% so at $4.00 it is indeed 11%. That said I remain concerned the first year's dividends might get eaten up in capital losses as retail sentiment remains very, very weak.

Disc: Non holder. Next divvy will be paid in April some time and I am expecting about 13-14 cps fully imputed.
Looking forward to the trading update. I am expecting further weakness in the near term.

[winner69]

They say one reason for retail struggling in Australia is the state of the property market with property prices falling in the main centres.

If house prices started to fall in NZ to the same extent as Australia could retail spending slow down here (like in Australia)

There is a pretty strong correlation between the two (consumer confidence, wealth effect etc etc) as the chart shows.

[Snoopy]

They say one reason for retail struggling in Australia is the state of the property market with property prices falling in the main centres.

If house prices started to fall in NZ to the same extent as Australia could retail spending slow down here (like in Australia)

There is a pretty strong correlation between the two (consumer confidence, wealth effect etc etc) as the chart shows.


That is the global perspective Winner. But in the food/clothing/shelter hierarchy, HLG are in the number two position. Even street people need clothing. And rich people need rags to clean their windows and cars. One year on in the HLG clothing life cycle, clothing that automatically rips and unstitches is good for that. When you see a big upsurge in the membership of our naturist societies, then and only then should you worry about HLG sales.

SNOOPY

[BlackPeter]

That is the global perspective Winner. But in the food/clothing/shelter hierarchy, HLG are in the number two position. Even street people need clothing. And rich people need rags to clean their windows and cars. One year on in the HLG clothing life cycle, clothing that automatically rips and unstitches is good for that. When you see a big upsurge in the membership of our naturist societies, then and only then should you worry about HLG sales.

SNOOPY

Actually - while it is true that people need clothing, it is not true that they need to wear the latest fashion. It is also not true that they need to buy clothes they never wear (see article below) or that they need to replace the content of their wardrobe while it is still useable (dto). If everybody would only buy the clothes they actually need and wear them not only once or twice but until they need replacement (and not just because they want a newer style or because they need some retail therapie) we would get through with substantially less clothes than we buy these days. Would as well reduce the rubbish problem, but this is another subject.

https://www.theguardian.com/fashion/shortcuts/2018/jan/02/wardrobes-full-unworn-clothes-worth-10-billion-pounds

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/apr/06/britons-expected-to-send-235m-items-of-clothing-to-landfill-this-spring

I doubt NZ or Australian clothes buying behaviour is much different to the British ... Just imagine people wouldn't buy the stuff they never wear or just throw away, triggered by a deteriorating economy or by a growing environmental conscience ... how good would that be to HLG?

I reccon that none of us would need to go without clothes if we replace our wardrobe just half as often as the average punter does. But this would be already a 50% reduction in revenue for HLG. Ouch.

[winner69]

That is the global perspective Winner. But in the food/clothing/shelter hierarchy, HLG are in the number two position. Even street people need clothing. And rich people need rags to clean their windows and cars. One year on in the HLG clothing life cycle, clothing that automatically rips and unstitches is good for that. When you see a big upsurge in the membership of our naturist societies, then and only then should you worry about HLG sales.

SNOOPY

True Snoopy .....yes HLG will still be selling clothes come what may ....even $280m worth plus this year.

The chart was just showing that some years sales growth is less than the year before (and at odd times sales can go down).

Just pointing out that HLG sales (growth) might be a bit sluggish this year

But then you are already aware of all this sort of stuff eh

[winner69]

This outfit blames 'competitors' for its demise. Hallensteins only have a few stores in OZ so not their fault .....but heck what an opportunity for Hallensteins as Ed's customers have to go somewhere for their pants and shirts eh. Good news

Almost 500 jobs gone as Ed Harry becomes the second major menswear chain to shut down in recent months
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/ed-harry-shut-down-kpmg/?utm_campaign=SC&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

[couta1]

This outfit blames 'competitors' for its demise. Hallensteins only have a few stores in OZ so not their fault .....but heck what an opportunity for Hallensteins as Ed's customers have to go somewhere for their pants and shirts eh. Good news

Almost 500 jobs gone as Ed Harry becomes the second major menswear chain to shut down in recent months
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/ed-harry-shut-down-kpmg/?utm_campaign=SC&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter I wonder how many train wrecks HLG has witnessed over it's long history, still going strong.

[sb9]

This outfit blames 'competitors' for its demise. Hallensteins only have a few stores in OZ so not their fault .....but heck what an opportunity for Hallensteins as Ed's customers have to go somewhere for their pants and shirts eh. Good news

Almost 500 jobs gone as Ed Harry becomes the second major menswear chain to shut down in recent months
https://www.smartcompany.com.au/industries/retail/ed-harry-shut-down-kpmg/?utm_campaign=SC&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

I'm expecting a slightly better trading update next week and positive tone going forward.

[carrom74]

I'm expecting a slightly better trading update next week and positive tone going forward.

I concur... today's rise(though on small volumes) is backed up by BGR's good results.Never know until we see it.

Last year's Feb update came on a friday so not far....

[percy]

I did note BGR's online sales were up an incredible 27%.
HLG have been growing their online sales well too over the past few years,so I look forward to seeing whether that momentum is continuing.

[carrom74]

Its all good then.. The good story continues...even when the rest are falling..

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/330504/294845.pdf

[couta1]

Its all good then.. The good story continues...even when the rest are falling..

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/330504/294845.pdf Just as I thought, never sold one single share and shut the naysayers out.Lol

[sb9]

Its all good then.. The good story continues...even when the rest are falling..

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/330504/294845.pdf

Agree 100%, they seem to weather all doom and gloom with their performance. Looking forward to results in March and juicy divvy to follow.

[pg0220]

Groups sales up by 3.1%, but the NPAT up by 6% even under the margin pressure. Simply a good company under good management.

[Onion]

Agree 100%, they seem to weather all doom and gloom with their performance. Looking forward to results in March and juicy divvy to follow.

Profit increasing at a faster rate than sales - can't argue with that.

[percy]

Profit increasing at a faster rate than sales - can't argue with that.

Very positive.

[BlackPeter]

Pretty spectacular results in an otherwise troubled industry. Credits to their management and their believers.

Based on these numbers is HLG in my spreadsheets turning "green" again ... though just. The million dollar question is - are they able to continue growing in the next handful of years or is the reduced growthrate only an indication that we are reaching the (revenue and earnings) peak?

I don't know the answer and feel at this stage still quite comfortable that I sold out closer to the previous share price peak.

[oldtech]

Mr Market likes it, already up 25c ...

[winner69]

Pretty spectacular results in an otherwise troubled industry. Credits to their management and their believers.

Based on these numbers is HLG in my spreadsheets turning "green" again ... though just. The million dollar question is - are they able to continue growing in the next handful of years or is the reduced growthrate only an indication that we are reaching the (revenue and earnings) peak?

I don't know the answer and feel at this stage still quite comfortable that I sold out closer to the previous share price peak.

Share price on fire ....might get to 5 bucks next week

Sales growth slowing though eh BP — 8 weeks +7.2% / 17 weeks +4.8% and 6 months +3.1% (means December / January not that flash)

But sentiment rules so OK for another year ....5 bucks soon and then $5.50 maybe

[dreamcatcher]

Not tempted to hold........... but well done & good luck to holders

[sb9]

Wonder how that Gragher crowd must be feeling...

[winner69]

Wonder how that Gragher crowd must be feeling...

Prob happy if they still hold a few

[GR8DAY]

Just as I thought, never sold one single share and shut the naysayers out.Lol

....yea good call couta. Likewise I chose to ignore the naysayers and kept buying. Still an incredible return even at 4.50sh!!!

[dreamcatcher]

Wonder how that Gragher crowd must be feeling...

Probably happy to have quit this low liquidity cyclical stock with future a long wait again for peak xmas drinks

[sb9]

Probably happy to have quit this low liquidity cyclical stock with future a long wait again for peak xmas drinks

It all depends on their entry point and exit point. Don't think they've been that smart with their timings.

[dreamcatcher]

Entry/exit points very true sb9 but Graghers future thoughts on outlook clearly changed and no easy feat moving volume as currently today 78k has moved share price by 31c

[Brain]

As has been pointed out in the past Fashion retail is a very difficult business - fickle customers and seasonal weather. But when it comes down to it for us investors the equation is very simple.

Great management = great results.

I am a happy holder

[macduffy]

Exactly, Brain! And it makes a big difference if that management has significant skin in the game - as is the case with HLG - and Briscoes!

:)

[Beagle]

Sales were up 7.2% for the first 7 weeks or so and then 4.8% the other day to the end of November and now only 4% up and now this from the outlook comments

"Whilst the new financial year started well, the outlook for the balance of this season and into the new calendar year remains unpredictable. Australia and New Zealand continue to be increasingly challenging retail markets. Consumers on both sides of the Tasman face ever-increasing pressures and challenges on their discretionary spend, and businesses in both countries are experiencing legislative change as well as challenging exchange rates and cost increase pressures".

Ouch, no wonder the SP has tanked. Margins are clearly under a material amount of pressure. From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.

[percy]

From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement. WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.

Three or four "huge" days compared with three or four "poor" days at Christmas/New Year makes all the difference.
Hot days people stay away from shops.Couple of good cool or wet days,and malls do well.
On a good day you can do a usual week's turnover.Any experienced retailer knows you can be well ahead,and then quickly fall well behind.
HLG are not so foolish to promise great outlooks.

[couta1]

From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement WTF ? I have no issues being a buy and hold kinda guy with this stock, I judge the company by its outstanding track record through good and bad times, no debt, exceptional average divvy payments over many years plus the quality of the Top 20 shareholder base who haven't sold any(I dont include Gragher in this as they are fly by night players)

[Beagle]

Three or four "huge" days compared with three or four "poor" days at Christmas/New Year makes all the difference.
Hot days people stay away from shops.Couple of good cool or wet days,and malls do well.
On a good day you can do a usual week's turnover.Any experienced retailer knows you can be well ahead,and then quickly fall well behind.
HLG are not so foolish to promise great outlooks.

Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.

[iceman]

Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.

Maybe time to sit back and just smell the roses then :-)

[Onion]

From December 2018
Don't want to be a sour "puss" BUT
Beggared if I know how you reconcile management's repeated warnings about challenging conditions and margins under pressure with this mornings announcement. WTF ?
Then there was the opposite fiasco with KMD saying growth was strong in November last year and now forecasting very modest growth which is actually negative eps growth.
One thing is absolutely certain is that this market is extremely challenging. Challenging to interpret the real truth from some of the B.S. issued by some companies.
I am extremely disappointed with the disingenuous nature of outlook statements made by both companies in late 2018.

The impact of their statement (3/12/2018) last year certainly had a major impact on the SP.

Were they disingenuous though?

On 3/12/2018 (the day the SP started falling) they said:


The Company advises that Group sales for the first 17 weeks of the new financial year (from 2 August 2018 to 30 November 2018) are +4.8% ahead of the same period last year. The trading environment has remained tough in both New Zealand and Australia. It is however not possible to reliably forecast the total Summer season trading result as the December and January trading periods contribute such a large proportion of sales and profit for the season.
We will however provide a further trading update at the Company’s Annual General Meeting on 12 December 2018.

On the 12/12/2018 the annual meeting was told that things were pretty steady. They mention a tough environment but note they are responding.

I think the market jumped to dire conclusions rather than the company saying that trading was going bad.

By the time of the 12/12/2018 meeting the SP had already fallen of the cliff. The SP has been relatively stable since then.

[couta1]

Never let a company like Gragher scare you out of your shares by assuming they know best when they clearly dont.

[winner69]

Beagle me old mate ...the numbers are even better than what they said

Remember Storm


Back out Storms numbers from last year sales were up 5.6% and profit up $2.4m (on $16.0m forecast) or a huge 17%

HLG don’t worry about ‘normalising’ things ...that’s cool eh.

[percy]

Bloody hard to read the tea leaves when management place either a very thick rose or black coloured filter over them.

Just as hard for them to read.
Retail is fickle.

[pg0220]

Three or four "huge" days compared with three or four "poor" days at Christmas/New Year makes all the difference.
Hot days people stay away from shops.Couple of good cool or wet days,and malls do well.
On a good day you can do a usual week's turnover.Any experienced retailer knows you can be well ahead,and then quickly fall well behind.
HLG are not so foolish to promise great outlooks.

I agree with you. Back then when they made the trading update in late 2018, the trading outlook definitely didn't look good with all the margin pressures and reduced consumer confidence and they just were honest with what they were seeing from their position at that time. That actually can be explained by the reduced sales growth rate which was 7% back then but only 3.1% at the end.

I am very interested in how the sales were made i.e. the growth in aus stores and online sales. Store traffic may have been much lower but there may have been a good increase in online sales where they benefited from investments in online platform.

In accounting principles, you should not overestimate your revenue/assets and underestimate costs/liabilities and the same should go for the management? (I am not sure if this prudence concept is still part of GAAP though!)

[percy]

Only guessing but I think online would still be enjoying great growth.[and very profitable].
From what I hear foot traffic at bricks and mortar retailers,including malls, was down on the previous year.
A book retailer told me he was running up 5% for December,and lost it all three or four days before Christmas and ended up down 5% for December.

[Beagle]

Whilst the new financial year started well, the outlook for the balance of this season and into the new calendar year remains unpredictable. Australia and New Zealand continue to be increasingly challenging retail markets. Consumers on both sides of the Tasman face ever-increasing pressures and challenges on their discretionary spend, and businesses in both countries are experiencing legislative change as well as challenging exchange rates and cost increase pressures".
HLG directors were extremely conservative with their outlook statement and KMD excessively optimistic.
Conservatism is much better than unwarranted optimism.

[macduffy]

HLG directors were extremely conservative with their outlook statement and KMD excessively optimistic.
Conservatism is much better than unwarranted optimism.

Yes, and I certainly like it that way! As others have pointed out, retailing is fickle at the best of times and this aint them!

[Beagle]

Beagle me old mate ...the numbers are even better than what they said

Remember Storm


Back out Storms numbers from last year sales were up 5.6% and profit up $2.4m (on $16.0m forecast) or a huge 17%

HLG don’t worry about ‘normalising’ things ...that’s cool eh.

Struggling with your numbers me ol mate.
No problem with your sales growth numbers if we extract storm to show normalised sales growth, all good.
Last year they recorded a half year profit of $15.1m after taking a $1.7m charge against storm write-down, normalised profit $16.8m. Mid point of forecast is $15.95m this year so if we normalise profit by extracting storm loss I get a ~ 5% profit decline.
Where are you getting this profit growth of 17% from mate ?

[winner69]

Struggling with you numbers me ol mate.
No problem with your sales growth numbers if we extract storm to show normalised sales, all good.
Last year they recorded a half year profit of $15.1m after taking a $1.7m charge against storm write-down, normalised profit $16.8m
Where are you getting this profit growth of 17% from mate ?

Yep, I stuffed up the numbers - was down on the beach ha ha and sun got to me

Segment npat for Storm was a loss of $1.5m so npat last year without Storm was $16.6m (not $13.6m I assumed)

So npat at $16m profit has gone backwards ....on solid increase in sales ....must be a margin problem afterall.

No more doing sums on the beach eh

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/316188/277004.pdf

You get some great photo's down there though mate :)

So just drilling down into this net profit first half last year was $15.14m. Normalize this for Storm loss of $1.45m after $1.7m provisioning gives normalised profit last year of $16.59m. Mid point of this year's forecast is $15.95m so 3.9% decline. Good solid result considering the quite considerable difference in exchange rates from the 2 periods and the lower business and consumer confidence this time round not to forget the summer of 2017/8 was an absolute cracker and weather in N.Z. in December 2018 this time round was quite patchy.

Conclusion - Management have done a good job in managing the business and its quite resilient to changing economic conditions and waning consumer confidence.

Good solid result. Having now had the time to drill down into this a bit I can see that earlier statements by HLG were not disingenuous, just "conservative" which is always a good thing, under promise and over deliver.

[winner69]

Glassons Australia pretty high up on this list of top online fashion retailers

Pretty good eh

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/australia-s-top-online-fashion-retailers.html?utm_source=Business+News+Australia&utm_campaign=8b53e8ec10-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_20190206_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cc7ab388bc-8b53e8ec10-35262449&ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_20190206_COPY_01)&mc_cid=8b53e8ec10&mc_eid=1265a460e8

[Beagle]

Glassons Australia pretty high up on this list of top online fashion retailers

Pretty good eh

https://www.businessnewsaus.com.au/articles/australia-s-top-online-fashion-retailers.html?utm_source=Business+News+Australia&utm_campaign=8b53e8ec10-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_20190206_COPY_01&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cc7ab388bc-8b53e8ec10-35262449&ct=t(EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_20190206_COPY_01)&mc_cid=8b53e8ec10&mc_eid=1265a460e8
:cool: :cool:

[DarkHorse]

Thanks W69, well-spotted!

[Beagle]

Goddard leaving is a bit disappointing but I think the business is in very good shape and some more fresh idea's on how to drive further growth could be good for the company.

[GR8DAY]

Hope Mark is Ok (reading between the lines). Indeed some lucky person is going to step into the CEO position of an extremely well run organized and very profitable company. Job for you Beagle??

[carrom74]

Hope Mark is Ok (reading between the lines). Indeed some lucky person is going to step into the CEO position of an extremely well run organized and very profitable company . Job for you Beagle??

His Last working day is not mentioned.Wonder why? or may be he is following the contractual obligations stipulated in the agreement.

[LAC]

Hope Mark is Ok (reading between the lines). Indeed some lucky person is going to step into the CEO position of an extremely well run organized and very profitable company. Job for you Beagle??
Lol I would be selling down if Beagle got the job, one day he would be opening new stores the next week selling them, the following month maybe start selling new cars then maybe selling new linen for the care beds...haha u just never know aye Beagle

[percy]

Maybe there is a window of opportunity for another Glasson.?

[percy]

Lol I would be selling down if Beagle got the job, one day he would be opening new stores the next week selling them, the following month maybe start selling new cars then maybe selling new linen for the care beds...haha u just never know aye Beagle

I dare not comment.!!...lol.

[GR8DAY]

Lol I would be selling down if Beagle got the job, one day he would be opening new stores the next week selling them, the following month maybe start selling new cars then maybe selling new linen for the care beds...haha u just never know aye Beagle

hahahha........yea good one LAC, got to agree with you there!

[Beagle]

You can relax as I am not applying for the job.
I'm always happy to back myself (and thankful God gave me a half decent brain to think for myself), to take the appropriate actions to ensure significant portfolio outperformance relative to the NZX50. Mediocrity is not good enough for this dog and never will be.

Perhaps HLG should promote someone from within as their current direction, culture and approach doesn't need to change much at all in my opinion.

[LAC]

Just pulling ur leg mate;)

[rainey]

Bring Di back

[BlackPeter]

Bring Di back

Hmm - not everybody enjoyed the Pumpkin Patch Episode ;);

[peat]

very progressive.

Hallenstein Brothers puts female model Laura Evans at centre of new campaign
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12206705&ref=NZH_Tw

[BlackPeter]

very progressive.

Hallenstein Brothers puts female model Laura Evans at centre of new campaign
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12206705&ref=NZH_Tw

Girl in Mens clothes? That's easy. Progressive would be to feature the AB's dressed in Glassons outfit ;); Doubt however they offer suitable sizes ...

[percy]

very progressive.

Hallenstein Brothers puts female model Laura Evans at centre of new campaign
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12206705&ref=NZH_Tw

Maybe the case in some households first up best dressed.?

[Beagle]

I think this has the makings of the most recent AIR inflight safety video, (subsequently pulled from viewing).
I would not be completely surprised to see a slight negative customer and share price reaction just like what happened in AIR's case.

[RupertBear]

I think this has the makings of the most recent AIR inflight safety video, (subsequently pulled from viewing).
I would not be completely surprised to see a slight negative customer and share price reaction just like what happened in AIR's case.

I actually know quite a few women who already shop at HLG for t shirts and Summer shorts and from what I have read so far the reaction has been very positive.

”It's a sentiment that has already struck a chord with some consumers, who have taken to Instagram to applaud the company for acknowledging the young women who also shop at its stores”

Personally I think Laura Evans looks pretty sharp in that suit!

[Beagle]

I actually know quite a few women who already shop at HLG for t shirts and Summer shorts and from what I have read so far the reaction has been very positive.

”It's a sentiment that has already struck a chord with some consumers, who have taken to Instagram to applaud the company for acknowledging the young women who also shop at its stores”

Personally I think Laura Evans looks pretty sharp in that suit!

:rolleyes: Interestingly timing coincidence ?, The CEO Goddard leaving and this new campaign starting. Hmmmm

[RupertBear]

:rolleyes: We're going to have to agree to disagree on this one my friend. Hasn't taken long for the wheels to come off now that Goddard has gone...

Living in student land in Dunedin pretty much anything goes here Mr Beagle, guess I am just use to seeing an eclectic mix of clothing on people :)

[Beagle]

I guess I'm just old fashioned and conservative. Not HLG's target market anyway...besides that none of their stuff fits a real big dog...made in Bangladesh XXL is not really Kiwi XXL and there's plenty of guys who are solidly built XXXL and HLG has nothing for them.

[Brain]

very progressive.

Hallenstein Brothers puts female model Laura Evans at centre of new campaign


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12206705&ref=NZH_Tw

Thanks for posting that peat.

Outstanding example of advertising. I am a happy holder.

[couta1]

Welcome back Gragher, please sell up and buzz off.

[Beagle]

Welcome back Gragher, please sell up and buzz off.

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some conservative investors being offended with the new Hallensteins advertising campaign. Some of them might even think that it hasn't taken long since the CEO Goddard resigned for the wheels to come off.

[couta1]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some conservative investors being offended with the new Hallensteins advertising campaign. Some of them might even think that it hasn't taken long since the CEO Goddard resigned for the wheels to come off. The pattern smells of Gragher to me anyway I'm chasing it down and topping up.

[winner69]

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of some conservative investors being offended with the new Hallensteins advertising campaign. Some of them might even think that it hasn't taken long since the CEO Goddard resigned for the wheels to come off.

Doubt it ...quite fashionable to look like that chick

though might be a public backlash if they had guys in Glassons dresses in their ads

[Onion]

Doubt it ...quite fashionable to look like that chick though might be a public backlash if they had guys in Glassons dresses in their ads

Eddie Izzard is in the country at present so they have the ideal(?) opportunity to find out.

[peat]

Doubt it ...quite fashionable to look like that chick



heaps of positive feedback on twitter (perhaps a place where less conservative people hang out! )

[RupertBear]

Doubt it ...quite fashionable to look like that chick



Agree Winner, very fashionable and has been for some time. Its actually not an uncommon corporate look either. My female lawyer frequently wears a suit and she looks very sharp and gives me good professional advice irrespective of what she wears. I am not entirely sure what is offensive about the HLG advertising. Should women only be seen wearing dresses?

[RupertBear]

The pattern smells of Gragher to me anyway I'm chasing it down and topping up.

Trust you Couta! I am down the gurgler with this one again and regret buying back in recently :(

[The Rocket]

I agree with Couta it is an overreaction CEO Goddard resigned a week ago the HLG advertising was already done by the time he resigned it is not the wheels coming off now he has gone. We all know there is a great result coming on the update. The CEO started in 2017 and he has done wonderful job and I am sure the heads have taken on board his knowledge. They are the oldest stock in the top 50 and if you look back as far as 2009 their dividends have been very high, they know their jobs at the highest level, and I am sure it will carry on for many years to come. I am looking forward to buying many more shares when I feel it is the bottom. Looking at the sellers I am going to be a happy man with a dividend at over 10% how can you go wrong I am amazed (it reminds me of Jane taking the top job at a2 it was the end for a2 lol) CEOs do so much but life goes on it does not always mean it is the end of HLG but once again it’s the mom and dad investors that lose

[McGinty]

I agree with Couta it is an overreaction CEO Goddard resigned a week ago the HLG advertising was already done by the time he resigned it is not the wheels coming off now he has gone. We all know there is a great result coming on the update. The CEO started in 2017 and he has done wonderful job and I am sure the heads have taken on board his knowledge. They are the oldest stock in the top 50 and if you look back as far as 2009 their dividends have been very high, they know their jobs at the highest level, and I am sure it will carry on for many years to come. I am looking forward to buying many more shares when I feel it is the bottom. Looking at the sellers I am going to be a happy man with a dividend at over 10% how can you go wrong I am amazed (it reminds me of Jane taking the top job at a2 it was the end for a2 lol) CEOs do so much but life goes on it does not always mean it is the end of HLG but once again it’s the mom and dad investors that lose


HLG aren't in the top 50. They might have had a chance to join if they stayed in the mid $5's, but the market (mostly Grahger) have made their call.

[percy]

Trust you Couta! I am down the gurgler with this one again and regret buying back in recently :(

Old guy walking past our place today stopped and asked me how the sharemarket was going.He had spoken with my wife a few weeks ago and she told him it was my hobbie.
He is 92,still does a two hour walk when it is fine,and against his family wishes he still skiis.
He told me he holds EBO.I said I brought them in 1991 and sold out last year.
He brought his at issue in either 1983 or 1985,and has added to his holding when they had capital raises.
He has only ever brought shares.Never sold any.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He has never asked for a share broker's advice,just rings him when he wants to buy.
He said the money is made making careful selection,paying attention to who the directors are, and the company must have a strong balance sheet.
A very wise old Bear.

[The Rocket]

yes McGinty sorry i meant they are the oldest stock in the NZX not the oldest stock in the top 50

[RupertBear]

Old guy walking past our place today stopped and asked me how the sharemarket was going.He had spoken with my wife a few weeks ago and she told him it was my hobbie.
He is 92,still does a two hour walk when it is fine,and against his family wishes he still skiis.
He told me he holds EBO.I said I brought them in 1991 and sold out last year.
He brought his at issue in either 1983 or 1985,and has added to his holding when they had capital raises.
He has only ever brought shares.Never sold any.!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
He has never asked for a share broker's advice,just rings him when he wants to buy.
He said the money is made making careful selection,paying attention to who the directors are, and the company must have a strong balance sheet.
A very wise old Bear.

Thanks Percy lovely story and I get your point :)

[stoploss]

yes McGinty sorry i meant they are the oldest stock in the NZX not the oldest stock in the top 50
Sanford listed way before HLG ....

[couta1]

Come on Gragher, keep leading it down, your losing heaps now and good job.

[oldtech]

Yep, I am also watching and waiting for an opportunity to top up ... $4.08 is a good price, under $4.00 would be even better! (Probably dreaming ... ASB shows 52 week low at $3.98).

[couta1]

Yep, I am also watching and waiting for an opportunity to top up ... $4.08 is a good price, under $4.00 would be even better! (Probably dreaming ... ASB shows 52 week low at $3.98). I just get on with it and chase it down.

[oldtech]

I just get on with it and chase it down.

Ha, love it! Go hard or go home :)

[Beagle]

Come on Gragher, keep leading it down, your losing heaps now and good job.

Looks like they're listening to you mate.

[couta1]

Looks like they're listening to you mate. The poor dears have probably had their feathers ruffled by the CEO resigning.Lol

[The Rocket]

Stop loss Sanford was founded in 1881 Hallenstein Brothers more commonly referred to as Hallensteins the company has roots in a department store founded in 1873 by Bendix Hallenstein once again I must be more careful in what I say I meant the oldest company in the stock exchange not the oldest stock in the stock exchange they have been round a long time but they have not fallen behind the times and are a market leader in New Zealand one of them anyway (DON’T QUOTE ME ON THAT)

[couta1]

Gragher headed back into their cave after a brief appearance, looking forward to their next one.

[oldtech]

Indeed. I hoovered up a few at $4.06, now to save my pennies for the next round.

[Mudfish]

Indeed. I hoovered up a few at $4.06, now to save my pennies for the next round.

Good work to you. With very conservative mathematics I make the PE ratio 9.1 at today's price of 4.32. SP of 5.50 gives a PE of 11.7. This is all after tax figures too. With a guaranteed imputated dividend announcement at the end of the month this is an beauty.

[Beagle]

Indeed. I hoovered up a few at $4.06, now to save my pennies for the next round.

Nicely done mate. I think they will have a different plan next time but I am ready with arms open wide if they are silly enough to repeat that process.

[Maverick]

Nicely done mate. I think they will have a different plan next time but I am ready with arms open wide if they are silly enough to repeat that process.

Im gonna stick my neck out here and call Grahger has finished selling. There's been enough volume going through the last 3 months to cover their shareholding.i can't find any facts concerning their current holding in Hlg but selling volume coupled with the recent drop off of share sellers paints are enough clues for me.
lets add the slight price rise too which , to me I, indicates that at last the share price has had time take a breather from the relentless selling.
So ......if my unsubstantiated opinion is correct , then it must follow the the share price now gets to its natural market share price.
Plenty of chat about what that might be here already so I'll not offer a number. Wouldn't want to be called a ramper.
disc. Got enough but would like more.

[Beagle]

Im gonna stick my neck out here and call Grahger has finished selling. There's been enough volume going through the last 3 months to cover their shareholding.i can't find any facts concerning their current holding in Hlg but selling volume coupled with the recent drop off of share sellers paints are enough clues for me.
lets add the slight price rise too which , to me I, indicates that at last the share price has had time take a breather from the relentless selling.
So ......if my unsubstantiated opinion is correct , then it must follow the the share price now gets to its natural market share price.
Plenty of chat about what that might be here already so I'll not offer a number. Wouldn't want to be called a ramper.
disc. Got enough but would like more.

I bought some more this morning :)

[couta1]

Im gonna stick my neck out here and call Grahger has finished selling. There's been enough volume going through the last 3 months to cover their shareholding.i can't find any facts concerning their current holding in Hlg but selling volume coupled with the recent drop off of share sellers paints are enough clues for me.
lets add the slight price rise too which , to me I, indicates that at last the share price has had time take a breather from the relentless selling.
So ......if my unsubstantiated opinion is correct , then it must follow the the share price now gets to its natural market share price.
Plenty of chat about what that might be here already so I'll not offer a number. Wouldn't want to be called a ramper.
disc. Got enough but would like more. I reckon about $4.60 fair value.PS-Have lots but extremely keen to pick up more if that opportunity arises again at a goodly discount.

[Beagle]

Worth north of $4.30 I reckon and lets not forget there's a ~ 20 cent divvy coming next month.

[winner69]

Good appointment

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/332019/296823.pdf

Ezibuy seems to be a good training ground

[sb9]

Good appointment

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/332019/296823.pdf

Ezibuy seems to be a good training ground

Agreed, good to see appointment came from within. Carry on the good work from predecessor.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/aa89236e/hallenstein-glasson-taps-mary-devine-as-managing-director.html

[percy]

Good appointment

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/332019/296823.pdf

Ezibuy seems to be a good training ground

She has been at a lot of places.
Never stayed long anywhere though.
Take care.

[Timesurfer]

Does the bump in interest today suggest some of you SML boys and girls coming across to snaffle some HLG divvies?

[Beagle]

I topped up a bit today at $4.40 with some of my proceeds. Beagles love their divvy feeds :)

[Raz]

It certain is a decent dividend given alternatives.

[winner69]

Beagle been getting to many PMs ...needs to clear his inbox out

[Beagle]

Beagle been getting to many PMs ...needs to clear his inbox out

Cleaned out a whole lot of previous yapping.

[couta1]

What a little beauty this is compared to so many other Dog stocks on the NZX, always looking for more when weak hands offer them up at the right price.

[King1212]

Is this beauty still can pay 20c dividend next week?

[Mudfish]

Is this beauty still can pay 20c dividend next week?

Ummmmmmmm...21c

[Beagle]

What a little beauty this is compared to so many other Dog stocks on the NZX, always looking for more when weak hands offer them up at the right price.

Barking mad I am about getting blindsided by disingenuous management at Synlait.

22 cent divvy to be announced shortly, I called it first :)

[King1212]

Just finished reading thier financial report beagle....the company cash flow is really good...and they managed to turn around thier stock well and fast. Top 20 holders, mostly are fundies and Long termers..so left 34 m shares...

online shops are well established too...which is great for current market.

consistent dividend payment..which in the current market is important. I think the current sp is a good entry ....might get in tomorrow ....

it it will be a good dividend share for the next couple years.

[Maverick]

The potential share prices suggested here recently seem way to low for me. The maths speak for themselves.

first half profit,15.9mil ( not confirmed but it will be so close), plus winter to come, 12.3 mil( that's just last years H2 profit thrown in, I suspect it will be better though as it was pretty ordinary) = fy19 npat 28.2 mil
thats an EPS of $0.47
last 4 years of PE's sit around about 11.4 sooo......$0.47 x 11.4 = share price $5.36
It seems reasonably safe to think Grahger has finished selling, plus a cheeky 20-22 cent divi (imputed) arriving shortly. What's not to like?
There is a more than even chance that either/ both profit and PE will be even higher.
Its just science and maths.

[King1212]

The potential share prices suggested here recently seem way to low for me. The maths speak for themselves.

first half profit,15.9mil ( not confirmed but it will be so close), plus winter to come, 12.3 mil( that's just last years H2 profit thrown in, I suspect it will be better though as it was pretty ordinary) = fy19 npat 28.2 mil
thats an EPS of $0.47
last 4 years of PE's sit around about 11.4 sooo......$0.47 x 11.4 = share price $5.36
It seems reasonably safe to think Grahger has finished selling, plus a cheeky 20-22 cent divi (imputed) arriving shortly. What's not to like?
There is a more than even chance that either/ both profit and PE will be even higher.
Its just science and maths.


yup..especially with current market where all stocks are fully priced and many sick dogs around. HLG would be a great dividend stock

[Beagle]

Any good dividend hound would be barking mad not to have some of these in their portfolio. Ultra low interest rates for many many years and HLG probably giving a gross yield of somewhere around 13% makes this a dividend hounds best friend.

[Baa_Baa]

Any good dividend hound would be barking mad not to have some of these in their portfolio. Ultra low interest rates for many many years and HLG probably giving a gross yield of somewhere around 13% makes this a dividend hounds best friend.

Currently looks like the trend might have reversed to the upside, testing your favourite 100MA today as well, but pulled back from that today. What could possibly go wrong eh?

I get the fundamentals and the ROI, but I don't get the eagerness to invest in a cyclical that is still trading well below it's long term MA's and in a technical down trend. Maybe ones new MO of buying the divi has replaced the capital sensitivity but I guess we will see how that plays out. A week in the market can make a difference as we've seen this week with SML.

SP's go up and down, it's a big ask to shift from capital growth/sensitive focused to being inured to capital movements just because it pays a half or quarterly payout.

[Beagle]

https://www.glassons.com/ Its smoking hot :)

[BlackPeter]

https://www.glassons.com/ Its smoking hot :)

Hmm - are you referring to the girls or to their dresses ;)?

[winner69]

Hmm - are you referring to the girls or to their dresses ;)?

No No No — the share price

Not listed on the 20% off sale off either

[King1212]

I think HLG is very well run company with good cash flow and no big debts...

[percy]

I think HLG is very well run company with good cash flow and no big debts...

With huge ongoing lease liabilities [debt] retailers must be careful not to carry additional debt.
What is encouraging is noting HLG strong online sale channel.

[winner69]

All fine on the HLG front ...no worries

Although the trading environment in both New Zealand and Australia is still challenging, it has been encouraging that Group sales for the first seven weeks on the 2019 Winter season are +1.5% ahead of the same period last year. Following the appointment of Mary Devine from 1 April 2019 as the new Group Managing Director, the business will continue to focus on building digital engagement with our customers, cost control and improving our market share in the New Zealand and Australian fashion apparel sector in which we operate.



http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/332667/297605.pdf

[Beagle]

Very solid result with great divvy and I note that digital has grown nicely to 14% of sales and that they are investigating several additional retail opportunities for Glassons in Australia. Fair to say Glassons Australia has been a star performer and now has critical mass along with huge future potential.
N.Z. best dividend hound's stock ? 44 cents of fully imputed dividends this year = 44/ 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross and on $4.60 this gives a gross yield of 13.3%.
Recently added more and I think ~ $4 was the low as this is a much improved company with substantially higher sales than it was 3 years ago.
Very impressive cuts to back office costs...they're running this thing like a well oiled Swiss watch. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/10ab2f7e/hallenstein-glasson-lifts-1h-profit-5-9-as-cost-cutting-offsets-skinnier-margins.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Hallenstein%20Glasson%20lifts%201H%20 profit%2059%20as%20cost%20cutting%20offsets%20skin nier%20margins&utm_content=Hallenstein%20Glasson%20lifts%201H%20p rofit%2059%20as%20cost%20cutting%20offsets%20skinn ier%20margins+CID_c2a39b46981d07496c925581f2f20569&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle10ab2f7ehallen stein-glasson-lifts-1h-profit-5-9-as-cost-cutting-offsets-skinnier-marginshtml

[winner69]

Glassons Australia a bit of drag on profits - NPAT down $0.7m on last year

Glassons NZ up $171k and Hallensteins about the same as pcp

Overall without Storm NPAT down $0.5m

in 'challenging' markets probsbly not too bad but lets hope H2 is pretty good. (winter sales up 1.7% so far won't cover the lost margin though)

[winner69]

Hundreds of thousands of ordinary New Zealanders get a 7% or more pay rise next week .....should help

[Beagle]

Yeap, heaps more people will be able to afford mid priced clothing rather than the absolute cheapest rubbish from some other retailers.

[winner69]

Yeap, heaps more people will be able to afford mid priced clothing rather than the absolute cheapest rubbish from some other retailers.

Make that heaps more less a few ....a few being those that’ll lose their jobs because the boss can’t afford the increases and can’t put his prices up.

[dreamcatcher]

One should remember almost ALL clothing made in China at very similar costings but its up to retail to add margins of 100% 200% 300% take your pick ?

[peat]

Shareclarity unimpressed highlighting the 180bp contraction in GP margin

It was noticeable but didnt seem that bad to me when I read the announcement
It seemed within coo-eee as you might say , of normal variation, especially in this sector.

They also say
NPBT excl Storm declined 2.7%.

[couta1]

The only stock I haven't sold any shares in for near two years now and very happy to keep it that way.

[winner69]

Shareclarity unimpressed highlighting the 180bp contraction in GP margin

It was noticeable but didnt seem that bad to me when I read the announcement
It seemed within coo-eee as you might say , of normal variation, especially in this sector.

They also say
NPBT excl Storm declined 2.7%.

Glassons Australia dragged the profit down ... NZ just held its own

[couta1]

Shareclarity unimpressed highlighting the 180bp contraction in GP margin

It was noticeable but didnt seem that bad to me when I read the announcement
It seemed within coo-eee as you might say , of normal variation, especially in this sector.

They also say
NPBT excl Storm declined 2.7%. Shareclarity I trust as much as a bull in a China shop.Lol

[winner69]

Glassons Australia

GM% down 3% points ....ouch

And while sales up 16% expenses were up 19% ....ouch

NPBT down 10% as a result

It'll get sorted ...no worries

[peat]

Shareclarity I trust as much as a bull in a China shop.Lol

its not trust to listen to their point though
presumably they've got the maths right.

[couta1]

This share is cheap for a 40c fully imputed divvy and a realistic PE, compare it with the likes of CNU where people are prepared to pay near $6 for less than 4% dividend yield, they must be sniffing glue or taking some other substance.

[Snow Leopard]

One should remember almost ALL clothing made in China at very similar costings but its up to retail to add margins of 100% 200% 300% take your pick ?

Almost ALL?

Whilst China is probably still the largest provider it has about 20% of the 'market' and declining

You are forgetting Bangladesh, India, Vietnam, Indonesia, The Philippines, Sri Lanka....

[Beagle]

It should be noted that in the pcp the currency was much stronger. I think this is a very solid and very credible result in a tougher retail environment with much lower currency and much lower consumer confidence than the previous corresponding period and they should go very close to making 50 cps this year which puts them on a forward PE of just 9 on a theoretical ex divvy price of $4.50. Compares to Briscoes of 11.3. I think Maverick is about right with his fair value assessment of $5.30 but I think there's a sound case for $5.50. MASSIVE POTENTIAL in Australia for Glassons.

[pg0220]

Glassons Australia

GM% down 3% points ....ouch

And while sales up 16% expenses were up 19% ....ouch

NPBT down 10% as a result

It'll get sorted ...no worries

Need to look at the sales growth. GM is lower, contributing comparatively lower GP and NPAT. As many of you indicated since a few months ago, they are going through a downturn in cycle, yet still building a momentum with sales growth in Australia. Once they get out of the downturn, guess what will happen when they recover the margin ratio back to what it was last year?!

[Snow Leopard]

Only just read the financial summary and was expecting a drop in NPAT after reading the comments here, but it is up and dividend maintained.

Must be missing the obvious as I am happy with the result.

[Beagle]

You're not missing anything, its the others that don't understand the credibility of this result as this period had much lower consumer confidence and much tougher currency than the previous corresponding period. I really like the drop in overhead costs against a rising income line which leaves heaps of room for profit growth once fairer weather returns. Announcement made it clear they are looking at multiple expansion opportunities in Australia and digital sales are growing nicely.

Forward PE of just 9 looks very cheap against this backdrop.

[Raz]

Hundreds of thousands of ordinary New Zealanders get a 7% or more pay rise next week .....should help

209,000 thousand..trying to catch up on with the cost of living...

Result could have be a hell of a lot worse..

[dreamcatcher]

Spent most of my working life in manufacturing and selling NZ made. Retail trade is a difficult industry especially clothing and take nothing for granted regarding dividends as circumstances can change quickly.

But well done Glasson's for surviving.

[couta1]

Spent most of my working life in manufacturing and selling NZ made. Retail trade is a difficult industry especially clothing and take nothing for granted regarding dividends as circumstances can change quickly.

But well done Glasson's for surviving. Anything in life can change at any time but with an average divvy of 30.25 cps paid out over the last 16 yrs which included the GFC they have more than proven their resilience.PS-You can only invest based on past and present performance not what could or might be.

[dreamcatcher]

Anything in life can change at any time but with an average divvy of 30.25 cps paid out over the last 16 yrs which included the GFC they have more than proven their resilience.PS-You can only invest based on past and present performance not what could or might be.

How true the future is a lottery for any share .........

[King1212]

Spent most of my working life in manufacturing and selling NZ made. Retail trade is a difficult industry especially clothing and take nothing for granted regarding dividends as circumstances can change quickly.

But well done Glasson's for surviving.

i won't buy made in nz clothing because nz is not good with the garments but I would buy the dairy...because it is well recognised...

[Beagle]

How true the future is a lottery for any share .........

Not a lottery at all. The best guide to the future of any company is its most recent history. The second best guide is its trading before that and the third best guide is its long run history. HLG ticks all the boxes and is arguably the NZX's premier dividend payer.

[dreamcatcher]

i won't buy made in nz clothing because nz is not good with the garments but I would buy the dairy...because it is well recognised...

Our company lasted 50 yrs until we retired so there was no problem with OUR quality but seen heaps come and go both in manufacturing and retail.

[LAC]

Was late reading the announcement but VERY happy with results, picked up more when it was at $4 and then really worries after reading about the gloom in retail and KMD didn’t help but just held on, great management team there and I see it break the 5s soon

[Mudfish]

Was late reading the announcement but VERY happy with results, picked up more when it was at $4 and then really worries after reading about the gloom in retail and KMD didn’t help but just held on, great management team there and I see it break the 5s soon

Good on you LAC, love your style. Easily worth $5 plus, but can't tell what the market will do at the moment.

[Beagle]

Interesting article. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12216869 I imagine a lot of retailers like HLG will also have to follow suit and increase prices.

[percy]

No no no HLG can't have their customers pay more..



Best to reduce the divie...lol.


One of the main reasons I sold out of Smiths City years ago was because of their rising wage bill.Not funny for a retailer who employs a lot of people,longer holidays,higher hourly rates,kiwi saver contributions.
In the book trade "wages" amounted to approx 12% of turnover.With the above, together with longer shop opening hours, "wages" are now approx 17% of revenue,while rent has increased from approx 12% to 19% plus..

[winner69]

Interesting article. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12216869 I imagine a lot of retailers like HLG will also have to follow suit and increase prices.

Last years wage bill was $51m including the grossly overpaid fat cats so minimum wage increase should have little impact

They run like a well oiled machine anyway

[percy]

Last years wage bill was $51m including the grossly overpaid fat cats so minimum wage increase should have little impact

They run like a well oiled machine anyway

Expensive oil,
$51mil is 18.34% of their $278mil revenue.

[LAC]

Hopefully online sales grows faster, that would/should be a cheaper method of moving product.

[winner69]

Expensive oil,
$51mil is 18.34% of their $278mil revenue.

The well oiled machine buying more and more stock as well ....stock turns down

[percy]

Hopefully online sales grows faster, that would/should be a cheaper method of moving product.

Certainly is.
HLG have grown their online sales very well.I think they now account for 16% of revenue.

[couta1]

The more negative talk the better, whatever it takes to enable me to pick up some more dirt cheap shares.Lol

[percy]

The well oiled machine buying more and more stock as well ....stock turns down

It is not easy out there.
It looks to me as though "young' Glasson is a tremendous retailer, who is driving Glassons Australia very well.
However things can turn to custard very quickly in retail.Get one season's colours,or styles wrong and you are "challenged".
Expanding their retail footprint quickly in Australia increases their risks.Rents,leases are ongoing huge liabilities.

[percy]

The more negative talk the better, whatever it takes to enable me to pick up some more dirt cheap shares.Lol
I am doing my best for you.!!..lol.

[couta1]

I am doing my best for you.!!..lol. Fantastic work, now all I need is for Beagle to change his mind again and I'm in.

[winner69]

Certainly is.
HLG have grown their online sales very well.I think they now account for 16% of revenue.

They said 14% in the announcement. Last year’s announcement said 11%

Good growth online sales but implies total stores sales about the same - even with those extra cool looking expensive to run stores opening up

[percy]

Fantastic work, now all I need is for Beagle to change his mind again and I'm in.
You may have to wait until 19th April.....?...lol.

What do the following have in common?
Andrea Moore,
Kimberleys
Top Shop.........[Mary Devine]
Top Man
Marcs
Esprit
Pagani
Supre
Zachary
Jean Jones
Shanton
Gas Clothing........[Dan Carter]
Valley Girl.

[Lewylewylewy]

You may have to wait until 19th April.....?...lol.

What do the following have in common?
Andrea Moore,
Kimberleys
Top Shop.........[Mary Devine]
Top Man
Marcs
Esprit
Pagani
Supre
Zachary
Jean Jones
Shanton
Gas Clothing........[Dan Carter]
Valley Girl.

I know this one... I've been banned from each shop for indecent exposure.

[percy]

They said 14% in the announcement. Last year’s announcement said 11%

Good growth online sales but implies total stores sales about the same - even with those extra cool looking expensive to run stores opening up

My mistake,thank you for checking.
Excellent online growth.

[percy]

I know this one... I've been banned from each shop for indecent exposure.
Gee Whiz I hope I have dreams tonight of being banned from Glassons.

[Beagle]

Fantastic work, now all I need is for Beagle to change his mind again and I'm in.

Hopeless shares, I'll do you an extra special deal and sell you all mine now for $6 :p

[couta1]

Smoking along just nicely.

[Timesurfer]

Smoking along just nicely.

Might end the day with 5 in front yet.

[see weed]

Some people taking early div before price drops back to 4.20c. I like the yld, but don't like the 8 month wait for next div in Dec.

[carrom74]

Some people taking early div before price drops back to 4.20c. I like the yld, but don't like the 8 month wait for next div in Dec.

.. for those who is keen on the buy button ... be quick!! Coz Couta is watching!!

[oldtech]

What happened there? Did a bunch of people mistake HLG for SPK and panic sell; only to then realise, "Whoops! Wrong company ..."

[Mudfish]

What happened there? Did a bunch of people mistake HLG for SPK and panic sell; only to then realise, "Whoops! Wrong company ..."

Yes, what a fickle few hours. Bit of profit taking I guess. Fundamentals remain the same. Good divi remains the same.

[arc]

Algorithm trading, pump n dump by machine learning systems

[macduffy]

Algorithm trading, pump n dump by machine learning systems

I think that particular machine still has a lot to learn about HLG!

;)

Disc: Holding.

[winner69]

Glassons bikinis not for going to the Albany pool

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111854578/woman-forced-to-leave-auckland-pool-over-claims-her-bikini-was-inappropriate

[Beagle]

Glassons bikinis not for going to the Albany pool

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111854578/woman-forced-to-leave-auckland-pool-over-claims-her-bikini-was-inappropriate

My goodness...I have examined the evidence which was extremely hard work lol...and can't find anything wrong with it.

[BlackPeter]

Glassons bikinis not for going to the Albany pool

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/111854578/woman-forced-to-leave-auckland-pool-over-claims-her-bikini-was-inappropriate

Probably not allowed to embark an AIR plane wearing it either ...

Just not sure, whether this episode is good or bad for the HLG share price. But they say there is not such a thing as "bad publicity"

Any way - shame on the life guard who sent her off and the "moms" who complained.

Good though, that the council apologized for the improper behaviour of their employees.

[King1212]

Well good new is the dividend is coming this Wed...20c....

[macduffy]

Well good new is the dividend is coming this Wed...20c....

Not quite this Wednesday though. Div is payable Thursday 18th April.

[sb9]

Not quite this Wednesday though. Div is payable Thursday 18th April.

Yes, however it does go ex-div this wed. So couple more days (incl today) to get in for divvy.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/this-is-not-body-shaming-richardson-defends-pools-decision-over-bikini/ar-BBVHABw?ocid=spartandhp
More free publicity for Glassons wonderful fashion. I can't see what the problem is, its a swimming pool for goodness sake !

[peat]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/this-is-not-body-shaming-richardson-defends-pools-decision-over-bikini/ar-BBVHABw?ocid=spartandhp
More free publicity for Glassons wonderful fashion. I can't see what the problem is, its a swimming pool for goodness sake !

we didnt see the ass tho!
I think I need more pictures to make an informed decision.

[King1212]

Maybe the guard got jealous....tried to get her attention ....but got peanut..

[Snow Leopard]

Bunch of dirty old men!

[pg0220]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/this-is-not-body-shaming-richardson-defends-pools-decision-over-bikini/ar-BBVHABw?ocid=spartandhp
More free publicity for Glassons wonderful fashion. I can't see what the problem is, its a swimming pool for goodness sake !
LOL so funny, I should ask the guard to ask someone to leave whenever I get to feel "uncomfortable" with the person. Although I agree with peat that we need more detailed pictures to make an informed decision!!

[Beagle]

I suppose we better get back to discussing the company before we get into trouble lol
What sustainable dividends do people see the company being capable of paying now that they're selling circa $300m per annum which is a lot more than a few years ago. (I acknowledge they have in fact paid 44 cps in the December to April period but being a little conservative I am "modelling" excuse the pun, 40 cents per share fully imputed = 55.55 cps gross and on a theoretical ex price of $4.80 this suggests to me a sustainable gross yield of 11.6%. I think the trick with this one now is there is now genuine expansion probabilities in Australia which if successful could lead to even higher sustainable dividends in the future...

[BlackPeter]

Bunch of dirty old men!

No - it was a bunch of presumably less attractive females with kids who could not control their droppings (that's dirty) who created this marketing opportunity for Glassons ;);

No word said about dirty mature man ...

[winner69]

Times seem to be getting even more ‘challenging’ for retail in NZ

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12220248&ref=CE-TA-DND-BUS

[King1212]

Sales is already 1.5% ahead on the last update.

[winner69]

Sales is already 1.5% ahead on the last update.

That’s good in challenging times

Wonder what the wage bill has gone up by.

[winner69]

TMaybe when they issue the real Interim Report they will say something about why Glassons Australia sales were up 16% but profit was down 12%

No comment in the brief results announcement

Not much point in having strong sales growth if profit goes backward.

[pg0220]

TMaybe when they issue the real Interim Report they will say something about why Glassons Australia sales were up 16% but profit was down 12%

No comment in the brief results announcement

Not much point in having strong sales growth if profit goes backward.

I think it is due to the lower margin due to weaker NZD and even weaker AUD impacting foreign exchange when brought into NZD.

[winner69]

I think it is due to the lower margin due to weaker NZD and even weaker AUD impacting foreign exchange when brought into NZD.

Maybe part of it but expenses increased at a greater rate than sales ..not good

Half Year Report might give an indication of forex impacts but there was a significant movement in cash flow hedges value showing up in Other Comprehensive Income whatever that means

[Beagle]

Ultra low mortgage rates, (massive fall last week) will leave stretched consumers with more money in their pockets as will cuts to the OCR this year.
Wages up yes, and prices will also need to rise for all sorts of basic items, even for things like doggy day care :)

[percy]

Just keep a watch full eye the currency.
Higher NZ $ works for HLG.
Lower NZ $ works against HLG.

I think I read the NZ $ is expected to weaken.

[Beagle]

Forecasting currency movements is like forecasting the weather lol

[couta1]

Just keep a watch full eye the currency.
Higher NZ $ works for HLG.
Lower NZ $ works against HLG.

I think I read the NZ $ is expected to weaken. It's also expected to rain again later this week.Lol

[King1212]

Settle down people..last one bikini now weather to be blamed....:D

[percy]

Forecasting currency movements is like forecasting the weather lol

Always pays to check the weather before going out boating.
Always pays to be mindfull of the currency when investing.

[couta1]

Always pays to check the weather before going out boating.
Always pays to be mindfull of the currency when investing. I don't invest based on currency but rather proven long term fundamentals, the growth potential of the company, it's proven long term dividend payment history and the quality of it's top 20 shareholders.

[percy]

I don't invest based on currency but rather proven long term fundamentals, the growth potential of the company, it's proven long term dividend payment history and the quality of it's top 20 shareholders.

Well you are in for a very nastie surprise should the NZ $ fall as projected.

[peat]

I think I read the NZ $ is expected to weaken.

I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.

But vs USD I would expect it to strengthen to as much as .71 or .72 (with a daily chart perspective so , say a 3-6 month time frame) before a serious bear reasserts itself.

USD fell sharply against CAD last night and thats a commodity currency as we are.



I don't deny that forecasting currencies is risky and prone to failure though lol

[percy]

"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.

[winner69]

I agree with this in respect of the Aussie dollar. Here we are heading for 1.09 Aud/NZD imo.



Isn’t that good for HLG?

[pg0220]

Isn’t that good for HLG?
Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.

[macduffy]

Weaker NZD against AUD should be always good for HLG.... correct me if I am wrong.

Insofar as profits in AUD would translate into higher NZD amounts, yes. Presumably, HLG buys mostly in USD and doesn't buy any meaningful volumes of stock priced in AUD.

[Beagle]

"Kiwibank economists say there's a 40% chance the Reserve Bank might have to continue cutting interest rates next year,while they see the NZ $ possibly dropping to US 50 cents."
Article was written on 3rd Apri; by David Hargreaves.

What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol

[percy]

It is what The Reserve Bank of NZ does that matters.
They lower interest rates, then Kiwibank economists may be proved correct.
A great deal depends on where you see interest rates.
I now have a very large position in a Kiwi exporter,thereby remaining "well positioned."

[couta1]

What do the BNZ, ANZ, Westpac and other economists say about the long term prognosis ? Probably a very wide variance between them and all about as reliable as asking today what the weather forecast is going to be for 9 April 2020 lol I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.

[percy]

I'm not concerned about all this guess work, HLG and ATM have been my best performing stocks by the length of a milk tanker wearing a bikini, all the others have been dogs by comparison.

I would think holding ATM, would give you a good currency hedge against your HLG holding,meaning you also remain "well positioned."
An exporter and an importer.