HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[iceman]

Tearfund gives Hallenstein's a B+ based on transparency across supply lines, workers rights and policies in place.
We have to be pleased with that https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12220525

[Beagle]

Tearfund gives Hallenstein's a B+ based on transparency across supply lines, workers rights and policies in place.
We have to be pleased with that https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12220525

Mate that's a solid pass mark, very happy with that :)

[winner69]

NZ shoppers not buying as many clothes as they did a few months ago

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/44ff57ef/retail-spending-dips-as-kiwis-buy-fewer-big-ticket-items.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Retail%20spending%20dips%20as%20kiwis %20buy%20fewer%20big-ticket%20items&utm_content=Retail%20spending%20dips%20as%20kiwis% 20buy%20fewer%20big-ticket%20items+CID_14d1ad420b05b09c367d75980717433 c&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle44ff57efretail-spending-dips-as-kiwis-buy-fewer-big-ticket-itemshtml


Won’t affect HLG as they growing market share eh

[King1212]

Got the juicy dividend today..consider to buy extra shares:)

[couta1]

Got the juicy dividend today..consider to buy extra shares:) She's a nice one all right.

[Beagle]

She's a nice one all right.

I'll swap you my one for your's :D :D

[couta1]

I'll swap you my one for your's :D :D No way, just in case you want to buy another Holden.

[Beagle]

No way, just in case you want to buy another Holden.

LOL...you know you want one too :p

[Timesurfer]

Given I only have a pocket full of HLG I was impressed with my dividend, so I can only imagine what you guys received. Takes me to a total current 13% return in 6 weeks. I should have backed myself more, but I thought I must have been missing something with HLG languishing where it was and the then dividend return due.

[LAC]

Was a nice day indeed, HLG put a smile on my face, proceeds all went to SUMthing else;)

[Snow Leopard]

Dividend in the bank helps pay for the travels:

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRmbokbhEzTqgTnSc1x8iMx9UGR26Ljn g8IlfXJlikD8hr9jqUQyA

[thestg]

2019 Interim Report is now available to view at their website.

https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/InterimReport2019.pdf

[King1212]

2019 Interim Report is now available to view at their website.

https://www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/InterimReport2019.pdf


Very good....well managed company..good cash flow..zero bank debts...great!

[pg0220]

Very good....well managed company..good cash flow..zero bank debts...great!
I was impressed that they managed to get the NPAT up by cutting down all the administrative expenses when margins were impacted by all the external factors. Great management.

[Beagle]

Huge mistake in the interim report. Needs more pictures :D

[Snow Leopard]

Huge mistake in the interim report. Needs more pictures :D

You like looking at the guys in their tight T-shirts do you?

[Beagle]

You like looking at the guys in their tight T-shirts do you?

LOL that wasn't quite what I had in mind but we have to be all inclusive there days, haven't you heard :p

[see weed]

Next dividend in 8 months...December. When sp comes back will definitely jump back in like a rat up a drain pipe. About 35 weeks is not too long, but prefer to hold after the Dec div. only about a 16 week wait for April div :).

[winner69]

I was impressed that they managed to get the NPAT up by cutting down all the administrative expenses when margins were impacted by all the external factors. Great management.

Excluding Storm from prior period NPAT was DOWN with Glassons Australia really underperforming

Question — are these much touted savings in administration real and if so are they sustainable.

[Beagle]

Excluding Storm from prior period NPAT was DOWN with Glassons Australia really underperforming

Question — are these much touted savings in administration real and if so are they sustainable.
I think point 1 has been discussed at great length already. Briefly recapping I think they did very well in a more challenging environment of a materially lower exchange rate and consumer confidence.
Why wouldn't admin savings be enduring ?

[winner69]

I think point 1 has been discussed at great length already. Briefly recapping I think they did very well in a more challenging environment of a materially lower exchange rate and consumer confidence.
Why wouldn't admin savings be enduring ?

Quite often Admin is where you stick stuff thats nots directly concept related and often that stuff contains some 'lumpy' items ....and often you reduce Admin expenses for a particular period by deferring some spend


Half year Admin looked good being $2m less than pcp (H118) but that period was heaps higher than prior periods. And H119 was about thw same as H218 which suggests that H118 had some 'lumpy' stuff in it.

Just going by numbers H219 Admin likely to be about $12.5m which would be slighty up on H218

Whatever huge savings in Admin costs made for a good story - don't let me make you think otherwise.

[winner69]

Hey Beagle me old mate

Not many pictures in the Report was there but did you notice that Free Cash Flow was $6.0m and they paid out $14.2m in juicy Dividends and the cash pile that not long ago was well in excess of $20m is now less than $10m

[Beagle]

You could be right mate and there could have been extra admin costs related to dealing with the Strom exit last year.
Good idea we have a look at the big picture to see whether there's any economies of scale with their growth in recent years and increase in online sales.
Admin costs as a percentage of gross sales
2016 $21.1m / $223.5m = 9.44%
2017 $22.6m / $239m = 9.46%
2018 $26.5m / $277.6m = 9.55%
2019 estimate $25m / $285m (increase in second half sales estimated at $3m) = 8.77%.

Pretty constant as a percentage of sales until this year.

Big investment in new and refurbished stores in the first half.

[Biscuit]

Hey Beagle me old mate

Not many pictures in the Report was there but did you notice that Free Cash Flow was $6.0m and they paid out $14.2m in juicy Dividends and the cash pile that not long ago was well in excess of $20m is now less than $10m


Their cashflow account is still a beautiful thing. Paid for expansion out of previous years cashflow and dividends out of this years with $1M left over. Not too shabby and no fudging or ambiguity.

[pg0220]

Their cashflow account is still a beautiful thing. Paid for expansion out of previous years cashflow and dividends out of this years with $1M left over. Not too shabby and no fudging or ambiguity.
Agreed. Also good to see that their RE account movement was in surplus as well.

[King1212]

The most beautiful is zero bank debts....money from sales....cash! I love buying companies that have zero bank debts

[Beagle]

No B.S. intellectual property or goodwill on the balance sheet either. Just a really nice clean and tidy operation that's been in business for many, many decades.

[winner69]

Rod from Briscoes says market still challenging

Does mention the increased wage bill though

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BGP/334126/299290.pdf

[couta1]

I can bear the risk..as HGH has zero debts..good cash flow. With interest remain low and HGL dividend is around 9pct....happy with the dividend keep flowing..rather than put the money on the bank I think you mean HLG otherwise your on the wrong thread anyway you cant have too many HLG.

[King1212]

Yes...sorry...I HOLD both.

[winner69]

Another outfit Hallensteins have life too hard

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112628565/munns-menswear-100-years-old-to-close-all-its-stores-nationwide

Used Munns a couple of times for black tie function stuff

[King1212]

Bloody selling suit and tie...no one wear it now...maybe has too much debts....should learn from HLG on how to manage its ac

[Patient Panda]

Have also used Munns once or twice in my life but definitely no more than that.

They really haven’t kept up with the times. Gotta stay relevant

[winner69]

Bloody selling suit and tie...no one wear it now...maybe has too much debts....should learn from HLG on how to manage its ac

....and hasn’t the world become a worse place since suits and ties have gone out of fashion?

Corporate standards certainly fallen

[Raz]

Winner69, they have in NZ, not necessarily the case overseas thou. Then again business casual is more comfortable and when you want to be serious an expensive suit has more impact than in the past:)

[King1212]

Global warming....too hot wearing those suits. My mate bought suits from local tailor ...almost $800 a suit..and wear it less than one a year....HLG has an affordable suit...around $100 to $200....well ...for once a year wearing not too bad...

[winner69]

Global warming....too hot wearing those suits. My mate bought suits from local tailor ...almost $800 a suit..and wear it less than one a year....HLG has an affordable suit...around $100 to $200....well ...for once a year wearing not too bad...

There was a Shareholder convention in town the other day ...I put the suit away and went rough in jeans and tee shirt.

[King1212]

That the one winner...we are kiwi...oh...did u wear shoes...or non or flip plop sandal?

[couta1]

With all the retail clothing companies that have folded over the last couple of years HLG have obviously hit the sweet spot and in tune with what the punters want at any given point in time ,adapt or sink well done HLG.

[winner69]

That the one winner...we are kiwi...oh...did u wear shoes...or non or flip plop sandal?

Really nice black shiny shoes with the suit ... usually wear decent pair of hiking boots with the jeans (more comfortable than joggers) ...my Red Band gummies when out in the garden ...bare feet in the house.

Wouldn’t be seen dead in jandals or sandals

[Beagle]

With all the retail clothing companies that have folded over the last couple of years HLG have obviously hit the sweet spot and in tune with what the punters want at any given point in time ,adapt or sink well done HLG.

Yes indeed. https://www.munns.co.nz/ closing after trading for over 100 years reinforces exactly what you've suggested, apparel companies either adapt or they die.

[MauroNZ]

Another outfit Hallensteins have life too hard

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/112628565/munns-menswear-100-years-old-to-close-all-its-stores-nationwide

Used Munns a couple of times for black tie function stuff

I used them for my wedding last year for first time however every time I walked by in Wellington they seem empty and feels conservative from outside so I thought they keep their old clients. Is a shame to loose this kind of stores.

[MauroNZ]

Really nice black shiny shoes with the suit ... usually wear decent pair of hiking boots with the jeans (more comfortable than joggers) ...my Red Band gummies when out in the garden ...bare feet in the house.

Wouldn’t be seen dead in jandals or sandals

At that time also I was looking for shoes and nothing near the $100, mostly around $200. With the expenses of the wedding I didn't want to spend a lot so I went to Hannah's and found a nice Julius Marlow model at $100 which then I got $20 with Amex. Though I haven't worn again after the wedding. However HLG had last winter a sale on shoes, 2 pairs at $100, it seems good value for money so I bought them to wear one at work and one for something semi casual.

I see a lot of people wearing suits in Wellington daily, however I believe they prefer to pay for something mid range. There is a brand that I like, Rembrandt which Munns sells and is from Wellington, just a jacket cost $400 ish. OK is very nice but if someone with a mortgage and say an 80K salary I don't think will buy it.

[777]

Munns is closing all shops. As we are ,as a nation, becoming scruffier, then hopefully HLG will provide.

[Benny1]

Haven't bought an clothes in NZ for a long time. Mostly buy if I'm in the USA.
Much more choice and better prices though with the dollar steadily dropping that's making stuff over there quite a bit more expensive.
Tee shirts, jean shorts and jandals are the summer stable for me !
Occasional shirt for going out for dinner.

Think the last time I wore my suit was to my wife's fathers funeral.. Even then I was the only one in one, and that was 9 years ago!

[kiwico]

I used them for my wedding last year for first time however every time I walked by in Wellington they seem empty and feels conservative from outside so I thought they keep their old clients. Is a shame to loose this kind of stores.

I don't think the Wellington store ever recovered from having to move from the Lambton Quay end of Willis Street to down towards the Majestic Centre. The manager used to live across the road from me and said the store never picked up to the levels of the previous location. But then I also seldomly visited their store since the move. I prefer Farmer's on their 50% off days (to show what a style guru I am!).

[Beagle]

Munns is closing all shops. As we are ,as a nation, becoming scruffier, then hopefully HLG will provide.

Great opportunity to pick a nice suit in the closing down sale.

[King1212]

Casualisation' of menswear blamed for Munns closure" said on the news.

mean while warehouse Q3 sales up 1.9%...

when wages up...automatically everything up....

[couta1]

I Love the way this stock has kept my overall portfolio in the blue for over two years now especially during downturns, something to be said for low beta and low liquidity aye.

[MauroNZ]

I Love the way this stock has kept my overall portfolio in the blue for over two years now especially during downturns, something to be said for low beta and low liquidity aye.

Today's price is still a buy for you?

[couta1]

Today's price is still a buy for you? No I wouldn't buy anymore unless it went below $4.30 myself.

[LAC]

I did the opposite today and sold out, the nz$ went lower today so couldn’t take the chance

[sb9]

I did the opposite today and sold out, the nz$ went lower today so couldn’t take the chance

Likewise, exited my position recently. With NZD expected to track lower on back of lower interest rates, higher wages and low business confidence, expect few headwinds ahead for them.

[couta1]

Likewise, exited my position recently. With NZD expected to track lower on back of lower interest rates, higher wages and low business confidence, expect few headwinds ahead for them. Stock has paid an average of 30.25c plus full imputations over the last 16 yrs with plenty of headwinds over that time, I dont predict wind strength its fraught with errors.

[King1212]

Well said!

[LAC]

Stock has paid an average of 30.25c plus full imputations over the last 16 yrs with plenty of headwinds over that time, I dont predict wind strength its fraught with errors.
Agree but I think the SP will head down a bit with a better entry point in the coming months.

[Beagle]

Agree but I think the SP will head down a bit with a better entry point in the coming months.

I wouldn't hold your breath in this ultra low interest rate environment. HLG offers a fully imputed yield of 9% (9/0.72) = 12.5% Gross, at the current price and as Couta1 quite rightly said it has been an exceptional dividend payer over the years. Some have correctly observed it paid strong dividends through the GFC too. A very resilient and well run business with excellent growth prospects in Australia.

[King1212]

Businesses will pass higher wages to the consumers...we all happy with pay rise and min wage up...but all things are going up too...foods...clothing and etc...so not so worry about wages....

[oldtech]

No I wouldn't buy anymore unless it went below $4.30 myself.

Might be waiting a while, just hit $5.00 - if I remember correctly, this is now at the same level it was a month ago just before it went ex-divvy. :t_up:

[couta1]

Might be waiting a while, just hit $5.00 - if I remember correctly, this is now at the same level it was a month ago just before it went ex-divvy. :t_up: Got my last lot at $4.09 so would only add more if it went down again, have heaps now but always keen for more of these beauties at the right price.

[oldtech]

Got my last lot at $4.09 so would only add more if it went down again, have heaps now but always keen for more of these beauties at the right price.

Yup, I managed to pick some up at $4.06 in February. :) Would be in like a flash if they take another glance at that level.

[Baa_Baa]

Chairman sells 12,500

[couta1]

Chairman sells 12,500 He only had 20k shares anyway so nothing to see here.

[winner69]

Stats NZ retail data for March quarter show clothing etc sales up 7% on same quarter last year

Staggering ...that’s good

[percy]

Stats NZ retail data for March quarter show clothing etc sales up 7% on same quarter last year

Staggering ...that’s good

7% or 0.7%...?

[winner69]

7% or 0.7%...?

Was 6.9% on value basis (mar qtr this year v mar qtr last year)

The volume growth was 7.3% so heaps more stuff sold and prices down a bit

[pg0220]

7% or 0.7%...?
I think 7% is correct. 0.7% growth overall retail industry. Actual sales changes for clothing, footware and accessories from the same quarter previous year was 6.9%.

[winner69]

I think 7% is correct. 0.7% growth overall retail industry. Actual sales changes for clothing, footware and accessories from the same quarter previous year was 6.9%.

Bodes well for H2 sales eh

Even better if gaining share in NZ but based on H1 sales that might not be the case

Retail don’t look too broken at the moment

[percy]

Some retailers are:
Struggling....KMD,MHJ,and SCY.
Tracking sideways HLG and LOV.
Doing well BGP and WHS .WHS is a real surprise to me.

[couta1]

Some retailers are:
Struggling....KMD,MHJ,and SCY.
Tracking sideways HLG and LOV.
Doing well BGP and WHS .WHS is a real surprise to me. Looking at the big blue arrow on my portfolio I'll settle for tracking sideways any day of the week.

[RTM]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/sir-philip-greens-arcadia-group-confirms-plans-to-shut-23-stores-in-move-that-puts-520-jobs-at-risk/ar-AABKpxn?ocid=spartandhp

Take care holders. Things can change.

[Onion]

Some retailers are:
Struggling....KMD,MHJ,and SCY.
Tracking sideways HLG and LOV.
Doing well BGP and WHS .WHS is a real surprise to me.

Mrs Onion visited both the Warehouse and KMart in Petone on Sunday. Apparently KMart was very busy and the Warehouse was dead quiet.

[percy]

Mrs Onion visited both the Warehouse and KMart in Petone on Sunday. Apparently KMart was very busy and the Warehouse was dead quiet.

KMart appears to be gaining traction in NZ.
I know the Westfield Riccarton store is always full of customers.

[Beagle]

Mrs Onion visited both the Warehouse and KMart in Petone on Sunday. Apparently KMart was very busy and the Warehouse was dead quiet.

That would be because savvy shoppers know that K Mart is very very cheap and effectively N.Z's version of Walmart.

[pg0220]

That would be because savvy shoppers know that K Mart is very very cheap and effectively N.Z's version of Walmart.
If I have anything I need to buy and there are Kmart and Warehouse nearby, I would always try Kmart first, way cheaper and almost the same quality.
But I would never buy clothes from either of them.........

[couta1]

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/sir-philip-greens-arcadia-group-confirms-plans-to-shut-23-stores-in-move-that-puts-520-jobs-at-risk/ar-AABKpxn?ocid=spartandhp

Take care holders. Things can change. Things can always change like the wind direction but with HLG seeing off a few players over the last few years I find myself very well positioned indeed.

[Biscuit]

.....I would always try Kmart first, way cheaper and almost the same quality.....


"cheaper and almost the same quality as the warehouse" has to be the definition of "damned with faint praise". I once made the mistake of buying something from Kmart. Not a mistake I will ever make again.

[winner69]

The guys store that starts with a H in this story must be Hallensteins

https://www.stuff.co.nz/timaru-herald/opinion/112811964/whether-its-casual-or-coercive-this-treatment-of-girls-and-women-is-wrong

[Timesurfer]

Quite the spread

[couta1]

Go you beauty, so defensive in these Trumping times.

[couta1]

Bit of extra cash in the bank from the sale of their Lambton Quay property, seems they have no debt they might as well pay a special divvy.

[iceman]

Bit of extra cash in the bank from the sale of their Lambton Quay property, seems they have no debt they might as well pay a special divvy.

Have you seen the sale price anywhere ? I can see that the made a gain of $1.1M but can not find the sale price and not sure what the book value was

[clearasmud]

Bit of extra cash in the bank from the sale of their Lambton Quay property, seems they have no debt they might as well pay a special divvy.

Oh goody are we going to get our 24 c a share again?
Oh hold on you mean more than 24c a share?

[Beagle]

I think they would be wise to invest the proceeds into their ongoing expansion plans in Australia. HLG already pay out massive dividends.
I am watching this one from the sidelines at present. Its still a while until the next dividend feed and lower exchange rates compared to the previous comparable period and higher wages costs will be putting some pressure on profitability. That said, its a very well managed company so they will be doing all they can to ameliorate the effects. Looking forward to seeing some visibility from the company in terms of how they are coping with the headwinds.

[percy]

HLG have performed very well.An excellent retailer.
I was surprised with KMD's result and noted BGP are working very hard.
Staff wages are interesting,and how HLG continues to perform will be how well they can contain them.
We can see how one retailer has given extra profits to staff, while the other has given them to shareholders, when we compare WHS to BGP.
.................................................. ..........2013.................................201 8
Wages /sales WHS...................................15.9%....... .......................17.5%
Wages/sales BGP......................................11.1%.... ..........................10.7%

[couta1]

Oh goody are we going to get our 24 c a share again?
Oh hold on you mean more than 24c a share? You know what I reckon I'm going to be very happy either way. PS-Im really longing to buy more of these beauties at the right price as I'm always feeling my holding is slightly underdone.

[mikeybycrikey]

I'm wondering if it might be this building: Hallensteins House. Recently sold in June for $7.75 million.

https://www.qv.co.nz/property/276-lambton-quay-wellington-central-wellington-6011/1014177

[winner69]

Going to be about $28m profit ....great effort

Shame about Hallensteins. They’ve struggled to grow over the last few years - a bit like Kathmandu in NZ. Things seem to get to a certain size / presence ands that’s where it stays.

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/hlg.nzx/338961/HLG_Trading_update_and_profit_forecast.pdf

[couta1]

Going to be about $28m profit ....great effort

Shame about Hallensteins. They’ve struggled to grow over the last few years - a bit like Kathmandu in NZ. Things seem to get to a critical mass / presence ands that’s where it stays.

https://quoteapi.com/resources/da9866271f9d0071/announcements/hlg.nzx/338961/HLG_Trading_update_and_profit_forecast.pdf Yep all good and the most important bit is "The Groups balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong, stock levels are also well managed" PS-Market likes.

[Beagle]

Solid and very credible effort.

[winner69]

Solid and very credible effort.


Only solid is an understatement .....awesome amazing when you take into the poor consumer confidence in NX, retail recession in Australia along with lower exchange rates compared to the previous comparable period and higher wages costs putting some pressure on profitability. However this very well managed company has ameliorated the effects.

Growing profits in this environment awesome amazing

[winner69]

Yep all good and the most important bit is "The Groups balance sheet and projected future cash flow remains strong, stock levels are also well managed" PS-Market likes.

Always say that ....only being consistent

Market likes ....some who were saying the good times were over for HLG and the share price will sink into oblivion need to hold their heads in shame eh Couts

[couta1]

Only solid is an understatement .....awesome amazing when you take into the poor consumer confidence in NX, retail recession in Australia along with lower exchange rates compared to the previous comparable period and higher wages costs putting some pressure on profitability. However this very well managed company has ameliorated the effects.

Growing profits in this environment awesome amazing That's why I take NO NOTICE of the naysayers when it comes to this stock. Lol

[Beagle]

Only solid is an understatement .....awesome amazing when you take into the poor consumer confidence in NX, retail recession in Australia along with lower exchange rates compared to the previous comparable period and higher wages costs putting some pressure on profitability. However this very well managed company has ameliorated the effects.

Growing profits in this environment awesome amazing

All I will say is have a look at KMD's trading update on 8 August 2019 which makes for an interesting and very relevant comparison.

[winner69]

That's why I take NO NOTICE of the naysayers when it comes to this stock. Lol

You win ,..they miss out

Like that mate

[couta1]

All I will say is have a look at KMD's trading update on 8 August 2019 which makes for an interesting and very relevant comparison.
KMD is a very fickle company and totally dependent on snow availability.Lol

[Beagle]

KMD is a very fickle company and totally dependent on snow availability.Lol

Not much snow until about 10 days ago and yet their trading update was very robust indeed...how do you figure that ?

[couta1]

Not much snow until about 10 days ago and yet their trading update was very robust indeed...how do you figure that ? Plenty of early snow in Aussie though. PS-Have another look at that trading update, Aussie sales plus 2.7% , NZ sales minus 3.9% and the comment NZ conditions were challenging, Hmmm.

[pg0220]

Plenty of early snow in Aussie though.
Hmmm yeah this probably makes sense. NZ same store sales were actually down for KMD.
- Australia SSS up +2.7%
- New Zealand SSS down -3.9%

It will be interesting to see ones for HLG.

[winner69]

Not much snow until about 10 days ago and yet their trading update was very robust indeed...how do you figure that ?

NZ sales were pretty poor ...SSS down 4% (not enough snow). NZ sales less than they were 5 years ago

Even though they didn’t say it I would hazard a guess that a lot of the profit increase is because of a full year of Oboz. In F18 only 3 months.

[macduffy]

This thread seems to have morphed into a new KMD one. Is there nothing more to say about poor old boring profitable HLG?

;)

I hold (firmly).

[couta1]

This thread seems to have morphed into a new KMD one. Is there nothing more to say about poor old boring profitable HLG?

;)

I hold (firmly). I think a whole lot of minds connected together unbeknown to each other to answer Beagle. PS-If I get anymore positive I'll be accused of ramping. Lol

[winner69]

This thread seems to have morphed into a new KMD one. Is there nothing more to say about poor old boring profitable HLG?

;)

I hold (firmly).

The KMD and HLG announcements highlight that the economy isn’t as dire as the guru economists and commentators make out. Jeez even the WHS seem to be doing OK and BRG still chugging along nicely

Any Hallensteins still still heaps and manage margins well and have the best stock management of all NZ retailers....just doing what they’ve done for decades

[Beagle]

The KMD and HLG announcements highlight that the economy isn’t as dire as the guru economists and commentators make out. Jeez even the WHS seem to be doing OK and BRG still chugging along nicely

Any Hallensteins still still heaps and manage margins well and have the best stock management of all NZ retailers....just doing what they’ve done for decades

^^True that. HLG are a very well managed company. Shares around fair value in the mid $5's in my opinion.

[Maverick]

With very conservative mathematics I make the PE ratio 9.1 at today's price of 4.32. SP of 5.50 gives a PE of 11.7. This is all after tax figures too. With a guaranteed imputated dividend announcement at the end of the month this is an beauty.
just going over some older posts and found this one on 4.3.2019.
looks like Mudfish got it bang on for now , just needed to wait 6 months for the market to work it out too.
Well done !

[Arbroath]

I'm out again in the mid $5's. It's a great company with excellent management but the weak NZD is my main concern. I could be wrong but 63 cents v USD has got to make it much harder to maintain margins in softening NZ and Oz economies.

[iceman]

I'm out again in the mid $5's. It's a great company with excellent management but the weak NZD is my main concern. I could be wrong but 63 cents v USD has got to make it much harder to maintain margins in softening NZ and Oz economies.

A fair comment. The sharply lower NZ$ will make things more challenging although the Aussie $ is showing some resilience which will be helpful. But through it all I believe we will continue to receive very healthy dividends so this one will stay in my portfolio for years to come, barring some unforeseen major change in circumstances with HLG.

[couta1]

I'm out again in the mid $5's. It's a great company with excellent management but the weak NZD is my main concern. I could be wrong but 63 cents v USD has got to make it much harder to maintain margins in softening NZ and Oz economies. Yes you could be wrong and that's why I ain't selling one single share of my XXXOS sized holding. PS-Why pay top dollar for the likes of the power companies for a third of the divvy yield.

[oldtech]

Just curious, couta, have you ever been tempted to trade a portion of your XXXOS holding? EG, if I look back to the end of 2018/beginning of 2019, when HLG fell from the high $5's to $4, did you consider selling when the SP fell and buying back in at the low? Or are you firmly buy and hold and top up with this particular baby?

I'm curious because this is a strategy I have considered trying with a couple of my very very very small holdings. But never had the kahoonas to try it yet!

[winner69]

I'm out again in the mid $5's. It's a great company with excellent management but the weak NZD is my main concern. I could be wrong but 63 cents v USD has got to make it much harder to maintain margins in softening NZ and Oz economies.

Managed margins well in the past. But if nzd went into the 50s short term profits probably will be be affected to some extent

But they’ll still come up with a decent divie and in these days if ultra low interest rates and yield seekers the share won’t be impacted as much as it would have been done in past years

If profits were a problem the share price wouldn’t be $5.50 now — half year result no that flash was it.

[couta1]

Just curious, couta, have you ever been tempted to trade a portion of your XXXOS holding? EG, if I look back to the end of 2018/beginning of 2019, when HLG fell from the high $5's to $4, did you consider selling when the SP fell and buying back in at the low? Or are you firmly buy and hold and top up with this particular baby?

I'm curious because this is a strategy I have considered trying with a couple of my very very very small holdings. But never had the kahoonas to try it yet! This is the my only true long term hold that isn't traded so I've used this as my discipline stock to keep a bit of balance besides I've invested a good chunk of my wife's money in this stock at $3.50 and she loves the divvies.

[oldtech]

Cheers couta, appreciate your input as always! :t_up:

[allfromacell]

Does anyone know why the dividend aren't eventually split over the year? They always have one in December and then another in April which is a bit annoying.

[BlackPeter]

Does anyone know why the dividend aren't eventually split over the year? They always have one in December and then another in April which is a bit annoying.

I guess this just reflects the business and earnings cycle ...

[winner69]

If you ignore (or eliminate) the period when those impatient Aussies were buying up big one could say that HLG current share price is at an ALL TIME HIGH


And likely to go higher in these days of ultra low interest rates

And to that night some though the share price would go back into the low 4s.


Cool eh

[Beagle]

Only solid is an understatement .....awesome amazing when you take into the poor consumer confidence in NX, retail recession in Australia along with lower exchange rates compared to the previous comparable period and higher wages costs putting some pressure on profitability. However this very well managed company has ameliorated the effects.

Growing profits in this environment awesome amazing

Had a bit of time to reflect on this while on holiday, helped by Coutts reminding me of how many he and his wife have. Probably solid and very credible effort is a bit of an understatement. I think management have proven over the long term this is a very resilient business too.

Quite some time back I took my money off the table after ostensibly doubling it since the late $2's in late 2016 on the grounds that at $5.50 it was fully priced.
At that time 10 year Govt stock was ~ 3% and its now ~ 1.1%. My thinking over my holiday week centered on to what extent fair value has moved up given the extreme move down in the risk free rate and the 100 year lows in interest rates.

I think in the rush to chase sustainable yield this one has been a bit overlooked and its longevity on the market, track record of dividend payments and the 100 year lows in interest rates that appear to looking to stay low for the foreseeable future, fair value is now materially north of $5.50.

Disc: I bough some this morning and am looking to accumulate more on any weakness.
Gross yield at $5.60 assuming 44 cps annual dividends is 44 / 0.72 = 61.11 / 560 = 10.9% and I think its sustainable at that level as the latest consumer confidence seems to be holding up reasonably well. I think they can navigate their way through higher wages and rent costs and the slightly lower currency and am prepared to back management to do so. I am looking to move up to a ~ 5% portfolio allocation.

[winner69]

Yep ...good move beagle

I reckon $6 plus in inevitable in the near future year

[Beagle]

Yep ...good move beagle

I reckon $6 plus in inevitable in the near future year

Thanks and yeah, I agree. Big 4.5% jump in apparel spending in August ! http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1909/S00225/retail-card-spending-bounces-back.htm

[winner69]

Thanks and yeah, I agree. Big 4.5% jump in apparel spending in August ! http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1909/S00225/retail-card-spending-bounces-back.htm

....and more importantly apparently Aussie retail is looking a lot brighter as well.

[Beagle]

....and more importantly apparently Aussie retail is looking a lot brighter as well.

I reckon Coutts could be up for the milestone of doubling his original $3.50 to $7.00 next year. He's got truckloads so that'll be happy days,

[Beagle]

"Hounded" up a few more of these today. "Purrfect" dividend hounds stock with a truly superb track record of high dividends. Coutts will be proud of me :)

[Beagle]

Yep ...good move beagle

I reckon $6 plus in inevitable in the near future year

Yeap, it was a sound strategic move hounding some more of these up. $6 already.

[couta1]

Yeap, it was a sound strategic move hounding some more of these up. $6 already. Lol, you cant have too many and I wish I had more.

[winner69]

Yeap, it was a sound strategic move hounding some more of these up. $6 already.

Will go even higher before next divie - pretty much risk free and still relatively cheap in these days of ultra low interest rates.

[Beagle]

Will go even higher before next divie - pretty much risk free and still relatively cheap in these days of ultra low interest rates.

I think what you're saying here and something I completely agree with is that the business has proved to be extremely resilient despite very low consumer confidence on both sides of the Tasman so in more normal times when confidence is better, returns will improve from here... I think they have strong growth potential in Australia and have carved out an excellent position in the mid price point of the rag trade. Been in business longer than I've been alive...I like companies that have proven themselves for more than 50 years...they just feel really, really solid to me. Just over 10% gross at $6 makes them a strong hold.

[Maverick]

I'm just not as sure as you guys on this one , at a $6 SP. It has been an enormous success for me personally the last few years but at these levels, it's by no means a one way bet.
Based on their latest forecast, which are always accurate, this winters earnings are slightly down on last year.(although their overall annual profit will be slightly up because of a fabulous prior summer) The FY 19 result no longer includes the loss making " Storm" brand which has now been sold off.
FYI -Storm lost about 1 million operationaly last year from memory.(without Storms influence from FY18 , overall net annual profit is actually about the same in FY 19)
Also, we now recently have a very low USD, never good for HLG.
Sure it's a great company, it is an iconic brand in the pronvinces where H +M etc won't dare tread, a terrific growing online platform and it really knows it's customer base. However , at 6 bucks I believe it's slightly overpriced.
While the HLG SP is historically safe at this time of the year leading into its November dividend, it just needs one bad seasons result, from either poor stock selection, unfavourable temperatures or whatever and there is now plenty of potential to disappoint the market.
While the current SP 's upward driving force seems to be both momentum and unprecedented low interest rates, historically the current share price, compared to earnings, is well ahead of where it normally sits.
Im just saying that there are real, longer term risks at $6 ,that seem to be currently overlooked.
Disc, have had "boots in all " but just a handful now.

[BlackPeter]

I'm just not as sure as you guys on this one , at a $6 SP. It has been an enormous success for me personally the last few years but at these levels, it's by no means a one way bet.
Based on their latest forecast, which are always accurate, this winters earnings are slightly down on last year.(although their overall annual profit will be slightly up because of a fabulous prior summer) The FY 19 result no longer includes the loss making " Storm" brand which has now been sold off.
FYI -Storm lost about 1 million operationaly last year from memory.(without Storms influence from FY18 , overall net annual profit is actually about the same in FY 19)
Also, we now recently have a very low USD, never good for HLG.
Sure it's a great company, it is an iconic brand in the pronvinces where H +M etc won't dare tread, a terrific growing online platform and it really knows it's customer base. However , at 6 bucks I believe it's slightly overpriced.
While the HLG SP is historically safe at this time of the year leading into its November dividend, it just needs one bad seasons result, from either poor stock selection, unfavourable temperatures or whatever and there is now plenty of potential to disappoint the market.
While the current SP 's upward driving force seems to be both momentum and unprecedented low interest rates, historically the current share price, compared to earnings, is well ahead of where it normally sits.
Im just saying that there are real, longer term risks at $6 ,that seem to be currently overlooked.
Disc, have had "boots in all " but just a handful now.

Good points, and while HLG is a well run company likely to master the coming storms as well as it did the same trick in the past ... it is still a cyclical close to an all time high resistance line.

Look at it from another perspective - what are the chances for the SP to go over the next 12 months another $2 up? Quite unlikely in my view given that growth seems to stall and exchange rates turn unfavorable and consumers become more careful with spending money anyway.

On the other hand - what are the chances for them dropping $2? I don't think it would need a lot encouragement for the SP to get there ... One bad season could do that.

As a holder I would not like the odds.

Discl: "casual" holder, but not now ;);

[Beagle]

Fair points and good debate
I would counter with the following
Managements proven track record. In horse racing terms if you'll excuse the analyogy, thoroughbread's with an exceptionally long track record will always sell at a premium to young tempremental colt's.
Cyclical in a long term slow uptrend.
Has only recently hit critical mass in Australia and has tremendous potential for growth there
100 year low interest rates gives scope to add up to a 2 PE premium to the traditional PE this has sold at
Has weathered what could be a cyclical low in consumer confidence.
Strong brand
Well entrenched market position
Dynamic and rapidly growing digital footprint
Proven ability to run an efficient distribution model
Gross yield just over 10% assuming 44 cps in annual fully imputed dividends.
I think consumers can pay a little more to cover the exchange rate cost increase and happy to bet they can.
Electronic card spend data for apparel up a very strong 4.5% in August 2019 indicating a probable strong start for the year to N.Z. operations
Real estate appears to have bottomed in Australia and with ultra low interest rates consumer confidence might also have bottomed.

[percy]

I retain my doubts about their Managing Director's capabilities.
Never stayed long anywhere.

[Beagle]

Sector Comparison
Based on very recent guidance
HLG - FY19 PE 12.76
WHS - FY19 PE 11.60
Based on recent results
KMD FY19 PE 12.75
BGR FY19 PE 13.19
Average for sector 12.6
In the context of the current 100 year low interest rates I don't think these PE's are expensive at all.

[couta1]

I reckon I'll just keep holding my truckload and enjoy and leave the debate to others. PS-Unlike another few divvy paying companies I could name this stock has been a star for me and not a wealth destroyer.

[macduffy]

I reckon I'll just keep holding my truckload and enjoy and leave the debate to others. PS-Unlike another few divvy paying companies I could name this stock has been a star for me and not a wealth destroyer.

I'll keep mine also, for now, but keeping in mind that it wouldn't take much for something to spook the whole market into a 20-30% "correction".

[Beagle]

I'll keep mine also, for now, but keeping in mind that it wouldn't take much for something to spook the whole market into a 20-30% "correction".

Plenty for the bears to fight about apparently, enjoy :) Very rare footage https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/rare-footage-of-grizzly-bears-fighting-on-bc-highway-posted-on-social-media/ar-AAHGghm?ocid=spartandhp

I'll be the wolf (dog's have 97% DNA commonality with wolves) and just watch attentively for now.

[peat]

yup agree its getting close to where I halved holding last time. (and then bought back in again after it dropped $1).
But having reduced around the portfolio already am not in a tearing rush to do so with HLG.

I consider that any shares can easily drop 20-30% and sometimes 50% without necessarily becoming a basket case.

[Beagle]

A full profit release will be made to the market on 27 September 2019.
Well know quite a bit more this Friday.

[couta1]

Looking good even though they use the words challenging and margin pressure, 24c divvy what's not to like.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/341728
Very good result for the year at $29m materially above previous guidance of $27.7m - $28.2m.
First 8 weeks of the new financial year sales up 7.2% is considerably better than the 4% I was hoping for and gives very good encouragement for FY20.
Appears to be genuine momentum in their brands and this at a time when consumer confidence is very muted.
Final divvy of 24 cps fully imputed is exactly what I was hoping for. Happy holder.
Gross yield at $5.90 based on 44 cps per annum = 10.4%.
More thoughts to come when I have read the whole report.

[percy]

An incredible result considering the headwinds faced with lost margin caused by NZ dollar weakness and competition.Costs have been kept well under control.
Strong growth continues in Australia.Looks as though young Glasson is doing a great job.
I notice online sales now account for 15% of revenue.
Very positive outlook,should mean shareholders remain "well positioned."

[peat]

solid
wouldnt sell any now until $7
but even at that yield is awesome,

[Arbroath]

An incredible result considering the headwinds faced with lost margin caused by NZ dollar weakness and competition.Costs have been kept well under control.
Strong growth continues in Australia.Looks as though young Glasson is doing a great job.
I notice online sales now account for 15% of revenue.
Very positive outlook,should mean shareholders remain "well positioned."

I think it is an excellent performance. My sale at $5.40 now looks like a poor decision but the NZD weakness does take 6 months or so to feed through so FY20 will be a challenge. That said they just continue to perform and are managed very very well. Sales up 7% for the start of the year is impressive. If they keep it up for the rest of FY20 then although I don't own I'd say they might head towards $7.00-8.00 in this low rate world.

[pg0220]

Love that 24c dividends :)

[BlackPeter]

A solid result still improving a bit on last years stellar result. Well done!

I noticed liabilities to asset ratio went up from 25.8% to 28.3%. Still nothing to be concerned off, but might be worthwhile to keep an eye on the trend.

ROE as usual for HLG nearly in the stratosphere (38.7%), but slightly down compared to last year (40.1%).

Very well managed company (though they hint to some past cockup's in the Hallenstein Brothers domain), but it still looks for me they are scratching along the ceiling of the quartil of the cycle.

Backward PE (10 years) is 18, backwards earnings CAGR (10 years) was 4.5%. Hard to predict in this industry what the future might bring - but based on backwards numbers looks the share in my view fully priced.

On the other hand - if I just use linear extrapolation (which may or may not make sense), than forward PE (4 yrs back, 3 years forward) would be 13.7 and forward CAGR 6.3. This would look cheap, trouble is just - linear extrapolations don't makes sense at the top of the cycle ... ;) - if that's where we are.

Anyway - congratulation to all holders & enjoy the dividend!

[Beagle]

Glassons Australia sales up 14%, they now have critical mass over there with sales about 90% of N.Z. sales...just scratching the surface of the Australian market which is five times the size of our market and Glassons are growing fast. Some people see the opportunity and others don't and that's fine.

Some people's "peak of the cycle" claims when consumer confidence is so muted make no common sense at all to me but people will believe whatever they like and that's their prerogative...

10.4% gross yield with all the growth in Australia to come. Hmmmm...who said you can't have your cake and eat it too :)

[BlackPeter]

Glassons Australia sales up 14%, they now have critical mass over there with sales about 90% of N.Z. sales...just scratching the surface of the Australian market which is five times the size of our market and Glassons are growing fast. Some people see the opportunity and others don't and that's fine.

Some people's "peak of the cycle" claims when consumer confidence is so muted make no common sense at all to me but people will believe whatever they like and that's their prerogative...

10.4% gross yield with all the growth in Australia to come. Hmmmm...who said you can't have your cake and eat it too :)

Absolutely - if they roll up the Australian market with all Ossie competitors surrendering and concurrently consumer confidence shooting through the roof, than only the sky will be the limit.

However - consumer trends and markets are easily spooked and incredibly fickle - and just looking at history, then the percentage of NZ companies being long term successful overseas (and particularly in Australia) is not great.

You are pointing out the potential, I am pointing out the risks. As you said, ultimately everybody needs to decide for themselves where to put their money ...

[Beagle]

On last year's normalised numbers PE is just 12.8. Profit was boosted by a one off property sale of $1.2m so normalised profit is $27.8m and normalized eps is 46.6 cps. Even on your 10 year backward view and accepting that at face value of CAGR in earnings of 4.5% and with interest rates where they are suggesting no growth PE of 11 is fair value I don't share your view its fully priced as one is paying only a very small premium to a no growth company.

They have clear momentum in Australia for a few years now. They are evaluating a number of new outlets in Australia for Glassons as well as now looking for expansion opportunities for Hallensteins over there too. In my view one is paying almost nothing for the growth potential...but each to their own.

In conclusion - The sector comparison I did the other day with BGR, KMD and WHS suggested HLG were not worse than fair value for the sector and I think they have more potential for growth compared to BGR and WHS.

Growing sales at 7.2% YTD this year is quite an achievement when consumer confidence is at a four year low http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/e015ba3a/consumer-confidence-at-4-year-low-as-people-fret-about-the-future.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Consumer%20confidence%20at%204-year%20low%20as%20people%20fret%20about%20the%20fu ture&utm_content=Consumer%20confidence%20at%204-year%20low%20as%20people%20fret%20about%20the%20fu ture+CID_448deadcd57a6447baa7093a1b7749ea&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticlee015ba3aconsum er-confidence-at-4-year-low-as-people-fret-about-the-futurehtml

A key measure of the efficiency of a retailers distribution model is the proportion of online sales. See how HLG compares to its retail peer group here
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/496105bc/hallenstein-glasson-maintains-sales-momentum-beats-annual-earnings-guidance.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Hallenstein%20Glasson%20maintains%20s ales%20momentum%20beats%20annual%20earnings%20guid ance&utm_content=Hallenstein%20Glasson%20maintains%20sa les%20momentum%20beats%20annual%20earnings%20guida nce+CID_cdf63aec58276c8b2948697c35a9e0f2&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle496105bchallen stein-glasson-maintains-sales-momentum-beats-annual-earnings-guidancehtml

[winner69]

Consumer confidence down but Hallensteins and Glassons going gangbusters

HLG share price be 7 bucks soon

[Beagle]

Wonder what happens to sales and profit when consumer confidence returns to normal level's ?

[winner69]

All this talk of the ‘top of the cycle’ and other things doesn’t really apply to HLG

The market per se might be cyclical but the main driver of HLG performance at the moment is growth from increasing market share ....significantly in Australia


Growing share is what counts ...even if it from new stores

[winner69]

Wonder what happens to sales and profit when consumer confidence returns to normal level's ?

Maybe those consumer confidence surveys are a load of crock

[Beagle]

Maybe those consumer confidence surveys are a load of crock

Probably they're correct but there can be quite a difference in viewpoints between the different generations.
According to a graph I saw the other day on CNBC based on US analysis over the last 20 years, young people are consistently considerable more optimistic than the over 55 age group. HLG group targeting the right demographic group then eh :)
Great to see their digital sales roaring ahead to 15%, substantially more than other N.Z. retailers.

[winner69]

Probably they're correct but there can be quite a difference in viewpoints between the different generations.
According to a graph I saw the other day on CNBC based on US analysis over the last 20 years, young people are consistently considerable more optimistic than the over 55 age group. HLG group targeting the right demographic group then eh :)
Great to see their digital sales roaring ahead to 15%, substantially more than other N.Z. retailers.

Generational stuff is fascinating and is a key component of any good business strategy.

One of best books I’ve read is The Fourth Turning by Neil Howe and William Strauss. It was published in the 1990s but they foretold what’s happening to the USA today and it’s not going to end in a happy way.

That Neil Howe has regular articles on how generations are currently impacting business and life in the US.

[winner69]

Probably they're correct but there can be quite a difference in viewpoints between the different generations.
According to a graph I saw the other day on CNBC based on US analysis over the last 20 years, young people are consistently considerable more optimistic than the over 55 age group. HLG group targeting the right demographic group then eh :)
Great to see their digital sales roaring ahead to 15%, substantially more than other N.Z. retailers.

If you look at the personal situation (red line) from latest Westpac report things look quite reasonable ...and optimistic

Media cheered on by bank economists still sensationalising things ....must want interest rates to go negative

[Beagle]

No worries one way or the other. HLG is the most resilient retailer I know of and having money in there at over 10% is arguably safer than some of the banks !

[winner69]

Backing out property and Storm impacts it wasn’t really a great year for HLG

Retail concepts combined NPAT was down $1.0m on last year.

The much vaunted Glassons AU NPAT was about the same as last year - they were behind at H1 but recovered in H2 so that’s a good sign even though performance always seems a bit lumpy.

Glassons NZ had a good H2 and NPAT was $0.7m more than last year

Hallensteins was a disaster with NPAT down $1.7m on last year. What’s a worry is that all that shortfall happened in H2. Quite a few comments in the narrative about this and one hopes that the positive spin they put on a shocking H2 result is enough to stop an impending train wreck. Appears the modern girl not buying from Hallensteins like they were supposed too in that cool media campaign they did earlier this year

Overall impression — the rave about sales growth not being converted into earnings growth. That’s a worry - maybe f20 won’t be as flash as many expect.

[winner69]

I note they got $7.8m Cash from that property sale. That helped maintain the high divie other wise divie would have put a big hole in cash reserves

Operating Cash Flow was $36.0m and they spent $19.9m on PPE resulting in Free Cash Flow of $16.1m but they paid $26m in divies.

Suppose they have more properties to sell if they want to continue paying big divies as well spending heaps on expansion and store upgrades

[couta1]

As you know winner sometimes you have to spend money to make even more money down the track, just like A2 aye. PS-Now I know why 99% of my money is in these 2 stocks.

[winner69]

Selling heaps more and making less not always a good sign

The 3 concepts sold $15m more than year before but made $1m less ...hmmm

Glassons AU worst performer — sales up $11m with no increase in npat. Can’t really rave about that.

Hallensteins sold a few suits more but NPAT was down $1.7m


At least Glassons NZ did sort of OK with sales up $3.8m and npat up $0.7m but you wouldn’t call that great growth in sales.

One thing HLG accounts are easy to read

Better stop reading them too much ...might find other not so good things and I might get shot down in flames if I say too much more.

Good yield though at $6

[Maverick]

Backing out property and Storm impacts it wasn’t really a great year for HLG

Retail concepts combined NPAT was down $1.0m on last year.

The much vaunted Glassons AU NPAT was about the same as last year - they were behind at H1 but recovered in H2 so that’s a good sign even though performance always seems a bit lumpy.

Glassons NZ had a good H2 and NPAT was $0.7m more than last year

Hallensteins was a disaster with NPAT down $1.7m on last year. What’s a worry is that all that shortfall happened in H2. Quite a few comments in the narrative about this and one hopes that the positive spin they put on a shocking H2 result is enough to stop an impending train wreck. Appears the modern girl not buying from Hallensteins like they were supposed too in that cool media campaign they did earlier this year

Overall impression — the rave about sales growth not being converted into earnings growth. That’s a worry - maybe f20 won’t be as flash as many expect.
Nice detail and considerations there Winner. There is no doubt it is a great company and has been well run for ages.
It is a very solid result, right on track, but I'm not convinced AU revenue growth will proportionally equate to profit growth either.
I understand the niche it has targeted in NZ in consideration to it's competitors here but have no idea if there is a similar space in the market over there.
It may well do, but seeking growth offshore has been the undoing of so many NZ companies so makes me extremely cautious.(RBD and Zero being the standout exceptions- so it can be done).
While the share price was 3-4 bucks this company was as good as gold but at $6 I' ll wait for a better rentry price or evidence of AU NPAT growth.
I am also cautious it has 2 fab summer seasons in a row, I do not accept yet that this should be viewed as normal.
On the plus side, I do like their aggressive expansion with their online focus. Amazon really spooked the retail market a few years back but HLG has had time and used it well to get ahead of the game if Amazon decide to venture over here.
But again , it was a very good result and excellent imputed dividend as anticipated.

[winner69]

As you know winner sometimes you have to spend money to make even more money down the track, just like A2 aye. PS-Now I know why 99% of my money is in these 2 stocks.

Agree with you mate ....good they are spending heaps on stores etc

They always seem to find the cash for doingbthatvas well as paying out big divies.

[Beagle]

Fair observations Winner but I note this performance is still very solid and against a backdrop of the currency and consumer confidence at multi year lows.
This underscores the resiliency of the business. When business conditions return to more normal levels...

Can't help myself comparing it to another iconic high yielding N.Z. company which also has a very long track record and had challenging conditions in FY19.
AIR also maintained their dividend but with it had their lowest profit in 5 years. I guess this shows the relative resiliency of the two companies.

[winner69]

Fair observations Winner but I note this performance is still very solid and against a backdrop of the currency and consumer confidence at multi year lows.
This underscores the resiliency of the business. When business conditions return to more normal levels...

.

Current business conditions for clothing/footwear retailers is currently pretty robust, maybe even above average

Stats NZ say growth (v pcp) in the last 4 quarters has been 1.1% (sep18 qtr), 4.5%, 5.9% and June19 qtr at 5.0%. That essentially covers the HLG financial year

Seems pretty healthy to me ....one could even say the last 2 quarters the market has been very good in NZ for retailers like Glassons and Hallensteins.

I note that HLG NZ sales didnt grow at those sort of rates ....hmm, losing market share?

sales didn’t incYou’ve got to stop reading those bank economic reports

[Beagle]

Wont' be able to read Tony Alexander's ones any more....one of the more level headed ones out there and more balanced than some of the unusual views often coming from some of them. Time will tell Winner. I am happy to hold and believe the dividend is sustainable at this level.

[winner69]

Market has been and still is pretty favourable for HLG NZ stores ...no sign of consumers cutting back on spending

Early part of chart and 2008/2011 were weak economic conditions and sales a bit flat for retailers ....other times including now pretty good ...even if they continue to remain challenging (ha ha)

[winner69]

Wont' be able to read Tony Alexander's ones any more....one of the more level headed ones out there and more balanced than some of the unusual views often coming from some of them. Time will tell Winner. I am happy to hold and believe the dividend is sustainable at this level.

Even now gross margin remains above historical average ....thats pretty good eh

Hallensteins Management are worse than me at talking down prospects

The only word they never use is 'cyclical'

[Beagle]

You're doing well if your goal is to try and talk it down and buy more at a lower level :p

[winner69]

Glassons AU seem to take all the kudos and get punters super excited, especially with the strong sales growth. In F19 sales were up $11m on previous year but they made stuff all extra profit.

selling more stuff generated $6.9m of Gross Margin but higher cost of sales had a negative impact of $1,6m meaning that overall Gross Margin was up $5.3m but it cost them an extra $5.1m in expenses/overheads.

So the incremental npbt from all that sales growth was a miserable $0.2m

Jeez, wonder what’ll happen if the market turns down and the impact of the lower $ finally hits?

[Beagle]

They're on a strong growth path in Australia that requires investment. I would imagine they have spent considerable resources scoping out new sites and investing in brand building over there.
This year we will see the full annualised effect of the capex they invested during FY19 and we get to see a glimpse of how that might play out with sales YTD for FY20 up 7.2% when apparel sales in N.Z. in August 2019 were up 4.5%. (I'm not aware of apparel sales data for Australia for August 2019) but a group increase in sales of 7.2% suggests to me the directors and managements well considered plans are working out well.

You're not going to talk me out of mine Winner but you're doing a great job of trying to talk it down to $5.50 again which would be a BUY in my book as opposed to a HOLD at $6.

[RTM]

They're on a strong growth path in Australia that requires investment. I would imagine they have spent considerable resources scoping out new sites and investing in brand building over there.
This year we will see the full annualised effect of the capex they invested during FY19 and we get to see a glimpse of how that might play out with sales YTD for FY20 up 7.2% when apparel sales in N.Z. in August 2019 were up 4.5%. (I'm not aware of apparel sales data for Australia for August 2019) but a group increase in sales of 7.2% suggests to me the directors and managements well considered plans are working out well.

You're not going to talk me out of mine Winner but you're doing a great job of trying to talk it down to $5.50 again which would be a BUY in my book as opposed to a HOLD at $6.

I'm on record as saying I don't hold retail stocks. Include property in that.
But clearly HLG holders have done well....So far. And I have missed out.
Just make sure it is a suitable % of your portfolio. If I were to dabble...I would not bet more than 2%.

[Beagle]

Barked nice and loud and clearly about this one in August 2016 at $2.70 and some of my mates are very pleased they listened against a "storm" of negativity that the tsunami of overseas retailers arriving were going to destroy the NZ retail scene for HLG. Very comfortable indeed with my 5.7% portfolio allocation.
The yield at $2.70 was 15% gross so its been rewarding in more ways than one ! The irony is I only ever bought it for the yield and never dreamed it would more than double in price in three years. 10.3% Gross yield at $5.95 for this extremely well managed company makes it a good hold with interest rates at 100 year lows.

[winner69]

Market been kind to HLG last few years ...even the last few months

Recession seems inevitable now ...not that good ...that’ll test their resilience

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2019/ANZ-BusinessOutlook-20190930.pdf

[RTM]

Barked nice and loud and clearly about this one in August 2016 at $2.70 and some of my mates are very pleased they listened against a "storm" of negativity that the tsunami of overseas retailers arriving were going to destroy the NZ retail scene for HLG. Very comfortable indeed with my 5.7% portfolio allocation.
The yield at $2.70 was 15% gross so its been rewarding in more ways than one ! The irony is I only ever bought it for the yield and never dreamed it would more than double in price in three years. 10.3% Gross yield at $5.95 for this extremely well managed company makes it a good hold with interest rates at 100 year lows.

Sounds great...especially the 5.7%
Tick !

[couta1]

Sounds great...especially the 5.7%
Tick ! I like 33% myself, same as the top tax rate so must be good. Lol

[RTM]

I like 33% myself, same as the top tax rate so must be good. Lol

Not for the faint hearted, that's for sure.
You will have done very well. Excellent.
Cheers, RTM

[peat]

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2019/ANZ-BusinessOutlook-20190930.pdf

Certainly looks dismal
which I guess supports my stance to be slightly underweight in equities at present.
Though not HLG. (14.2%)

[Beagle]

Market been kind to HLG last few years ...even the last few months

Recession seems inevitable now ...not that good ...that’ll test their resilience

https://www.anz.co.nz/content/dam/anzconz/documents/economics-and-market-research/2019/ANZ-BusinessOutlook-20190930.pdf

Thankfully as discussed before, young people buying heaps of clothes at HLG are significantly more optimistic than older people (who as business owners) are probably those filling out these survey's and us other older buggers taking an interest in reading them. But I do seem to recall some retired chap on here who reckoned these survey's were a crock anyway :p

[winner69]

Just as well HLG are resilient .....and you never know it might provide further opportunities for them

'Retail apocalypse' claims another scalp
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/forever-21-files-for-bankruptcy-20190930-p52w72.html

[Baa_Baa]

Just as well HLG are resilient .....and you never know it might provide further opportunities for them

'Retail apocalypse' claims another scalp
https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/forever-21-files-for-bankruptcy-20190930-p52w72.html

Not sure that's really relevant but Hallensteins have had some notable retreats from Aus since their entry 2003, shifting with the ebb and flow towards womens fashion. https://www.nzabs.org.nz/hallenstein-brothers-retreating-from-australia/
They seem to be doing ok at this stage but obviously a troublesome market to break into.

For me it's the chart, I won't bore you with posting it as anyone can see HLG is at the top of a very strong repetitive cyclical pattern over a very long time period. Great if you're on the upside of capital growth while earning outperformance dividends, but depressing if you're caught on the downside SP capital trends even with the dividends. No worries though if you never sell and don't give a toss about what the SP is doing.

Maybe I should post the chart? It's very toppy on past performance. Notwithstanding the 'long hold ignore everything' believer investment strategy.

[winner69]

I think the stated 7% sales increase in first few weeks just a random spike over a short time frame. Expect future updates to be a bit gloomy

The more realistic business outlook report is the QSBO. Real companies respond rather than ANZ small business customers.

Out today had this - Retailers are also more downbeat in the face of weaker demand. Profitability in the retail sector is at the weakest level since September 2009, as retailers struggle to pass on rising costs by raising prices.

The numbers in actual report quite depressing
https://nzier.org.nz/media/nziers-qsbo-points-to-further-slowing-in-activity-quarterly-survey-of-business-opinion-october-2019

[peat]

For me it's the chart, I won't bore you with posting it as anyone can see HLG is at the top of a very strong repetitive cyclical pattern over a very long time period.

people can see what ever they want.
I see it finding some resistance at a previous high but looking so bullish all this year that after some wobbling around at this level for a while who knows it might smash through that onto all time new highs !

[Beagle]

I think the stated 7% sales increase in first few weeks just a random spike over a short time frame. Expect future updates to be a bit gloomy


Group sales were $287.55 million, an increase of 3.36% over the corresponding period last year ($278.20 million)
The first eight weeks of the new financial year have seen Group sales grow +7.23% on the prior year Extracts from annual result above

Lets just ignore that its more than a few weeks, (actually 8 weeks) and that the rate of increase is on top of last years increase and at more than double the growth rate.
I get it you've sold and are trying to talk it down now but you're going to have to do better than that puny effort :p

[Beagle]

Consumer confidence down but Hallensteins and Glassons going gangbusters

HLG share price be 7 bucks soon

Quote from 27 September 2019 after the annual result when you were obviously still holding :p

[couta1]

Quote from 27 September 2019 after the annual result when you were obviously still holding :p Hope winner hasn't moved in under a bridge.

[Beagle]

Sounds great...especially the 5.7%
Tick !

Thanks. Done a Percy and sold half after doubling for a free carry but how do you work out your yield based on free shares :)

[couta1]

Thanks. Done a Percy and sold half after doubling for a free carry but how do you work out your yield based on free shares :) Lol but you only get half the divvy, you've now got cash earning zilch.

[Baa_Baa]

people can see what ever they want.
I see it finding some resistance at a previous high but looking so bullish all this year that after some wobbling around at this level for a while who knows it might smash through that onto all time new highs !

Yes for sure, see what you want to see, quite the capital rollercoaster and certainly not immune to the economy (see GFC period). I reckon Beagles right that if they can crack the Aussie market wide open and demonstrate significant revenue growth and sustained earnings, this could bolt onto new highs. Personally I'd rather give it a chance to prove that, rather than be a buyer at these levels, despite the yield. Anyone whose enjoyed the capital gains and the dividends of the recent run-up will be pretty happy with themselves.

This is a monthly chart, closing price log-scale. Looks more like a rollercoaster in a theme park :eek2:
10786

[Beagle]

Lol but you only get half the divvy, you've now got cash earning zilch.

Cash that's going into exercise of a truck load of Barramundi warrants that when exercised will yield me north of 14% gross. Heck that's a higher yield than HLG and better diversified over 25 different companies within that fund :p

[winner69]

Yes for sure, see what you want to see, quite the capital rollercoaster and certainly not immune to the economy (see GFC period). I reckon Beagles right that if they can crack the Aussie market wide open and demonstrate significant revenue growth and sustained earnings, this could bolt onto new highs. Personally I'd rather give it a chance to prove that, rather than be a buyer at these levels, despite the yield. Anyone whose enjoyed the capital gains and the dividends of the recent run-up will be pretty happy with themselves.

This is a monthly chart, closing price log-scale. Looks more like a rollercoaster in a theme park :eek2:
10786

Plot the earnings and resulting chart looks pretty similar

What did BlackPeter say about cyclicals?

[couta1]

Cash that's going into exercise of a truck load of Barramundi warrants that when exercised will yield me north of 14% gross. Heck that's a higher yield than HLG and better diversified over 25 different companies within that fund :p At my Avg price of $3.50 I reckon that's an excellent yield and because I dont believe in diworsification I find myself well positioned but i reckon your strategy suits your breed of hound much better.

[Beagle]

Yes for sure, see what you want to see, quite the capital rollercoaster and certainly not immune to the economy (see GFC period). I reckon Beagles right that if they can crack the Aussie market wide open and demonstrate significant revenue growth and sustained earnings, this could bolt onto new highs. Personally I'd rather give it a chance to prove that, rather than be a buyer at these levels, despite the yield. Anyone whose enjoyed the capital gains and the dividends of the recent run-up will be pretty happy with themselves.

This is a monthly chart, closing price log-scale. Looks more like a rollercoaster in a theme park :eek2:
10786

F.Y.I.
Glassons Australia sales growth:-
2019 13.9%
2018 56.7%
2017 21.5%
I note their 2019 sales growth was during a period of very weak retail data in Australia.
More than enough evidence of an encouraging trend as far as I am concerned.
The size of the Australian market is roughly five times N.Z.

[winner69]

Had a yak with a mate about the depressing economic commentators we have - he said well, winner, they are just eccentric accountants

[Beagle]

Had a yak with a mate about the depressing economic commentators we have - he said well, winner, they are just eccentric accountants

Where's the poking out tongue emoji lol

[peat]

This is a monthly chart, closing price log-scale. Looks more like a rollercoaster in a theme park :eek2:
10786

higher highs , higher lows?

[winner69]

Where's the poking out tongue emoji lol

:p:p:p. But I like :t_up::t_up::t_up:

[winner69]

F.Y.I.
Glassons Australia sales growth:-
2019 13.9%
2018 56.7%
2017 21.5%
I note their 2019 sales growth was during a period of very weak retail data in Australia.
More than enough evidence of an encouraging trend as far as I am concerned.
The size of the Australian market is roughly five times N.Z.

ABS (Australia Stats) say retail clothing sector growth to year July 19 was 3.6% .....year before growth was 2.1%. Year to July 19 pretty strong eh.

Very weak retail data ....hmm ..,you been reading too many stories in the paper.

[winner69]

Always had to measure real growth when they don’t report same stores growth

How much is real growth and how much from new stores

Suppose growth is growth ....but in AU growing total sales but stuff all extra profit

[Beagle]

ABS (Australia Stats) say retail clothing sector growth to year July 19 was 3.6% .....year before growth was 2.1%. Year to July 19 pretty strong eh.

Very weak retail data ....hmm ..,you been reading too many stories in the paper.

Probably all written by aging eccentric accountants :lol:
Last 3 years growth by Glassons Australia really has been gangbusters, (not just talk of gangbusters like some companies eh) :D

[winner69]

Probably all written by aging eccentric accountants :lol:
Last 3 years growth by Glassons Australia really has been gangbusters, (not just talk of gangbusters like some companies eh) :D

Yes indeed - new sites + store upgrades = GANGBUSTERS

[Beagle]

Yes indeed - new sites + store upgrades = GANGBUSTERS

Good you've seen the light again mate. Better cover that short you put on and buy back in first thing tomorrow...oh wait, looking at the share price close looks like you might be in the process of doing that already :p

[couta1]

Mr Bell building a deck I see.

[winner69]

Mr Bell building a deck I see.

Not much of a deck

At least he's kept some skin in the game ..thats good

[couta1]

Not much of a deck

At least he's kept some skin in the game ..thats good Avg cost to build a deck in NZ between 10-20k so for 38k he'll get a pretty big deck.

[winner69]

ABS (Australia Stats) say retail clothing sector growth to year July 19 was 3.6% .....year before growth was 2.1%. Year to July 19 pretty strong eh.

Very weak retail data ....hmm ..,you been reading too many stories in the paper.

Good news Beagle

In AU Clothing/Footwear sector sales for July month were +4.5% up on pcp. That's pretty good eh mate

The good news is that for August the sector was up 5.8% - wow

Market going gangbusters in AU and NZ pretty good as well.

No wonder HLG sales are going gangbusters

Hope earnings grow on this sales growth ….didn't in F19

[Beagle]

Consumer confidence turning upward ?
Noticed on Friday that our 10 year Govt stock rate is now 1.02%.
9% on top of that given HLG's superb track record seems like a good deal to me !
Honestly, if they can continue the growth in Australia they've enjoyed in the last 3 years, (the bigger they grow the greater the economies of scale kick in), then this is going to be a very rewarding stock to own going forward in more ways than just the 10.4% gross dividend yield.

[percy]

Avg cost to build a deck in NZ between 10-20k so for 38k he'll get a pretty big deck.

Hopefully he will not have to sell his remaining 1,143 shares to buy deck chairs.

[winner69]

Consumer confidence turning upward ?
Noticed on Friday that our 10 year Govt stock rate is now 1.02%.
9% on top of that given HLG's superb track record seems like a good deal to me !
Honestly, if they can continue the growth in Australia they've enjoyed in the last 3 years, (the bigger they grow the greater the economies of scale kick in), then this is going to be a very rewarding stock to own going forward in more ways than just the 10.4% gross dividend yield.

In spite of what you've read in the papers and bank economic reports the clothing retail sector hasn't been too bad the last year or so. Chart on ABS data

Has had bad times in the past but not lately as the papers suggest

[Beagle]

Thanks Winner. Glassons Australia growth in the last 3 years has vastly outstripped the general growth in the apparel sector.

[winner69]

Thanks Winner. Glassons Australia growth in the last 3 years has vastly outstripped the general growth in the apparel sector.

Shame they don’t report same stores sales ...be able to assess how much of that growth is from store expansion

[IAK]

Avg cost to build a deck in NZ between 10-20k so for 38k he'll get a pretty big deck.

Get pavers, half the price and less maintenance.

[winner69]

F.Y.I.
Glassons Australia sales growth:-
2019 13.9%
2018 56.7%
2017 21.5%
I note their 2019 sales growth was during a period of very weak retail data in Australia.
More than enough evidence of an encouraging trend as far as I am concerned.
The size of the Australian market is roughly five times N.Z.

Even better ....the opportunity is even more than you thought ....it appears as if AU market is 6.5 times NZ

[Beagle]

Even better ....the opportunity is even more than you thought ....it appears as if AU market is 6.5 times NZ

That's good. 5 times was a guess, suspected the opportunity was a bit more. Glassons Australia Sales
2016 $41.2m No new stores opened during the year
2017 $50.1m Net, no new stores opened during the year, (3 loss making stores closed, 3 new stores opened)
2018 $78.4m Added 2 new stores that year
2019 $89.5m Added 2 new stores during the year
Only added a net 4 new stores since 2016 yet sales have more than doubled (up 117%) in the last 3 years.

With the size of the Australian market and the way they have been growing the brand... I think the opportunity is very clear and they have clearly demonstrated the Glassons brand identity has rapidly growing awareness amongst Australian women.

They have really modernised many of their stores to the new format. I mentioned way back in 2016 this was something I was very impressed with after a couple of site visits. I think its clear I'm not the only one impressed with their new European style store formats.

Onward and upward and 6.5 times the opportunity in Australia as N.Z, that's pretty cool isn't it !.... and lets not forget we're being paid extremely handsomely (10.4% gross yield at $5.85) to enjoy waiting for more growth :)

[winner69]

Get same level of share in AU than in NZ and sales would be nearly $700m

Hope the expensive new distribution centre being built is big enough to cope with that in a few years time.

Heck what will divie be when that happens? More than a $

[couta1]

You guys are incorrigible but keep it up. Lol

[Beagle]

Huge opportunity to grow, for sure. I don't try and pretend to understand women (something my wife will readily attest too lol), but once they get comfortable with a brand and think its cool they start talking to their friends and...

[winner69]

You guys are incorrigible but keep it up. Lol


Future is AU - NZ maxed out with little in way of growth prospects ...and as BP would say some downsides

Strategy probably keep NZ steady and then keep boosting earnings from AU

New stores in high traffic locations, refurg and upgrade stores to new concept along with that great consumer offer will see to that ...and not lets forget the online stuff as well

Bloody wey afternoon wasn't it couts

[couta1]

Sure was wet winner, no doubt a few leaky roofs around the place. Hey Beagle I'm hearing you, I've given up trying to understand why my wife needs handbag number 20 or more than two wardrobes full of clothes, its unfathomable stuff. PS-Keep reminding her to buy some clothes from Glassons.

[tim23]

Noticed in Country Road the other day they have dual label for A$ and NZ$ pricing its quite cynical as the variations are quite different, sometimes the conversion rate was about 13% when the exchange rate has been about 7% difference, most shoppers would hardly notice but I did! Don't think Hallensteins use this cunning ploy.

[winner69]

With two different concepts (brands) and an online business and operating over two countries HLG sure have successfully morphed into a helix organisation - striking a great balance between centralization and decentralization, reducing complexity, and embracing agility.

Wouldn’t think many companies that have been around for over a century could do this.

[macduffy]

All we need now is for HLG to capture 1% of the Chinese market!!!

;)

Personally, I'm happy to have HLG as a pillar of the income section of my portfolio, growing steadily but not getting too carried away in the tough Aussie market where many other NZ companies have come to grief.

[Beagle]

15% online sales very comfortably eclipses guru retailer Rod Duke with Briscoes and also beats KMD and Warehouse quite comfortably so HLG are doing really well.
Interestingly we talked yesterday about how Glassons Aust sales overall are up 117% since 2016.

Online group sales in 2016 represented just 7% of total sales back then but now at 15% are up 114% since then.
I don't know the split in terms of online NZ v AU but assuming its roughly in line with the relative sales from each country what we can possibly deduce is that in the last 3 years online sales as a proportion of total sales in Aust have more than doubled and sales themselves overall have more than doubled so it follows that in dollar terms online Australian sales have probably more than quadrupled in the last 3 years. No wonder they have to build a fancy new distribution centre. Hope its nice and big to handle another quadrupling of online sales in the next 3 years or so.

[Beagle]

https://thebull.com.au/tax-cuts-spent-on-sports-gear-clothing-shoes/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+5+ October+2019

[winner69]

https://thebull.com.au/tax-cuts-spent-on-sports-gear-clothing-shoes/?utm_source=ST&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=ShareTrader+AM+Update+for+Saturday+5+ October+2019

I don’t think you believed me — and now the media says that’s it’s going gangbusters for clothing retailers in AU it must be true.

[Beagle]

Its taken me a little while to get my head around the bifurcation in consumer behaviour in Australia.
On one hand we have articles like this https://www.caradvice.com.au/797541/holden-lowest-monthly-sales-since-1948/ indicating lowest new car sales since the GFC which would tend to indicate an erosion in consumer confidence and what you've suggested in regard to apparel being reasonably buoyant.
Its clear to me now that whilst consumers and business's don't think this is a great time to spend on significant capex such as a new vehicle they're quite happy to spend more on basic consumer items like apparel. That's good for HLG :)

[percy]

HLG fortunes certainly picked up with the appointment of James Glasson as CEO of Glassons Australia in October 2017.
His father Tim certainly drove Glassons when he took over from his father.
Exciting seeing a third generation driving the business to new levels.
With a solid balance sheet and the business gaining momentum shareholders are "well positioned".
The strength on retail taking online onboard,which HLG is very successfully doing,was brought home to me yesterday when I visited a TSB Living, store tucked away in an industrial area.The place was packed with customers,and they were buying.
A word of caution.Australian Mall landlords come with "history",which makes it all the more important for HLG to keep driving their online channel hard.

[winner69]

Its taken me a little while to get my head around the bifurcation in consumer behaviour in Australia.
On one hand we have articles like this https://www.caradvice.com.au/797541/holden-lowest-monthly-sales-since-1948/ indicating lowest new car sales since the GFC which would tend to indicate an erosion in consumer confidence and what you've suggested in regard to apparel being reasonably buoyant.
Its clear to me now that whilst consumers and business's don't think this is a great time to spend on significant capex such as a new vehicle they're quite happy to spend more on basic consumer items like apparel. That's good for HLG :)

Remember that headline last week as another clothing retailer went broke ‘Retail Acopolypse’. The sky is falling in and the world is about to end.

Those going broke weren’t up to it in the first place....the world keeps changing ....but Glassons are a pace.

Fact is that clothing retail market in AU is pretty strong at the moment.

[winner69]

Hallensteins boss sells all their shares

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/342826/309985.pdf

Says last disclosure was 4/10/19 but no disclosures for him on that date!

[BlackPeter]

Hallensteins boss sells all their shares

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/342826/309985.pdf

Says last disclosure was 4/10/19 but no disclosures for him on that date!

Hmm - sold all of nearly 15,000 shares, hardly enough to fund an appropriate deck ... would be worse if Couta would sell out ;);

[winner69]

Hmm - sold all of nearly 15,000 shares, hardly enough to fund an appropriate deck ... would be worse if Couta would sell out ;);

Probably her bonus or staff shares ...so can’t blame her for selling

But I’d like to know what was disclosed on 4/10/19 ...might have sold a million

[winner69]

Maybe Kerry has left Hallensteins?i

[Beagle]

$Kiwi up nearly a full 1% against the US overnight. No barking required here...all good and running better than a well oiled Swiss watch.

[BlackPeter]

Probably her bonus or staff shares ...so can’t blame her for selling

But I’d like to know what was disclosed on 4/10/19 ...might have sold a million

The recent announcement re "Disclosure of Directors and Senior Managers Relevant Interests" was prepared by Stuart Duncan. This same Stuart released the announcement before that on Oct 4th, just disclosing the share movements of some other senior manager.

That's the announcement he is referring to.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/342199

[winner69]

The recent announcement re "Disclosure of Directors and Senior Managers Relevant Interests" was prepared by Stuart Duncan. This same Stuart released the announcement before that on Oct 4th, just disclosing the share movements of some other senior manager.

That's the announcement he is referring to.

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/342199

Yeah I know that

My understanding of how these things work is that the Date of Last Disclosure is the date that that particular Director/Senior Management last made a disclosure

In this case when (and how) did this Kerry end up with the shares she's now sold.

[winner69]

$Kiwi up nearly a full 1% against the US overnight. No barking required here...all good and running better than a well oiled Swiss watch.

Great news indeed

On top of the 'wealth affect' kicking in again as property prices boom again

And Australia on a roll they say

[BlackPeter]

Yeah I know that

My understanding of how these things work is that the Date of Last Disclosure is the date that that particular Director/Senior Management last made a disclosure

In this case when (and how) did this Kerry end up with the shares she's now sold.

small fry - I'll leave that up to you to research ... ;)

[kiwidollabill]

Another piece of info I find interesting. The textile/apparel industry is somewhat of 'the canary in the coalmine' for macroeconomic trends. The USA/China trade war will provide some advantages for non-US retailers like HLG. As the US retailers shift manufacturing away from China (alot is going into SE Asia) then it leaves capacity in China which manufacturers are desperate to fill, should ensure a containment or depreciation of COGs for a given rev.

[winner69]

Cool Annual Report

How about that 32% growth in online sales at Glassons - that’s amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/343341/310636.pdf

[percy]

Cool Annual Report

How about that 32% growth in online sales at Glassons - that’s amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/343341/310636.pdf

Online 15% of revenue is excellent.
Wonder where it will be in 3 to 5 years time.?

[winner69]

Online 15% of revenue is excellent.
Wonder where it will be in 3 to 5 years time.?

A lot higher I hope as long as it doesn’t cannibalise store sales to any great extent

[BlackPeter]

Cool Annual Report

How about that 32% growth in online sales at Glassons - that’s amazing

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/343341/310636.pdf

Wouldn't the overall earnings growth be more relevant than revenue in one individual sector? And - while they are good in online sales - this is the sector where it is the easiest for competitors to break into their market.

I see their earnings CAGR (10 years) is 4.5%. A solid number, but at a PE of 12.2 and in a cyclical sector they appear to be fairly priced.

Anyway - nice pictures ... I guess we will see whether they are enough to break the $6 resistance. So far buyers don't seem to pile up, but they might still be stuck with admiring the nicely dressed ladies and gentlemen in the report ... ;);

[winner69]

Wouldn't the overall earnings growth be more relevant than revenue in one individual sector? And - while they are good in online sales - this is the sector where it is the easiest for competitors to break into their market.



Great growth in online sales while maintaining stores growth is a sign of resilience and agility and keeping up with the changing times

Important to keep measure ...and skiting about.

[couta1]

I like boats and that pic on p10 does a great job of showcasing the fashion.

[Beagle]

I like boats and that pic on p10 does a great job of showcasing the fashion.

They need to include a couple of cute terriers in there somewhere eh mate, you could offer your one as a show dog for their next annual report photo shoot :)

[Beagle]

Online 15% of revenue is excellent.
Wonder where it will be in 3 to 5 years time.?

Very well said Percy. That's a great question to mull over !!
Skim read the annual report and it was indeed a breath of fresh air.
Just the good and necessary stuff without being mindlessly obsessive about inclusiveness and diversity and / or overtly playing favourites with one particular minority ethnicity. A very good read and obviously a very well managed and governed business run by people with their heads well and truly screwed on properly.
Glassons Australia growth is especially encouraging.
Really liked this bit, Our mandate "Sustainable long term growth"
A company with a bright future trading on very undemanding metrics and cum a 24 cent fully imputed final dividend.

[peat]

all good and everything but wow have you seen the trails of disaster in this sector in Aussie. As always it can be interpreted either way as it may affect HLG , but certainly a dash of reality

[Beagle]

Glassons Australia Sales
2016 $41.2m No new stores opened during the year
2017 $50.1m Net, no new stores opened during the year, (3 loss making stores closed, 3 new stores opened)
2018 $78.4m Added 2 new stores that year
2019 $89.5m Added 2 new stores during the year
Only added a net 4 new stores since 2016 yet Glassons Australia sales have more than doubled (up 117%) in the last 3 years. Beagle

From a few pages ago peat.
Numbers speak for themselves and it pays to focus on what works and ignore the failures from other apparel retailers who don't know how to build a brand. The annual report indicates to me there is a very good degree of confidence about their ability to grow Glassons Australia going forward.

[winner69]

......

I see their earnings CAGR (10 years) is 4.5%. A solid number, but at a PE of 12.2 and in a cyclical sector they appear to be fairly priced.

;

So HLG 10 year earnings growth in line with the NZX50 earnings growth ....but the NZX50 currently trading at a PE 0f 33 odd

[Snow Leopard]

Finally through that $6 resistance.

Somebody will come out with 'resistance once broken often becomes support'.

To infinity and beyond :p

[peat]

Finally through that $6 resistance.

Somebody will come out with 'resistance once broken often becomes support'.

Or, somebody could come out with VWAP 598.65 !

ATH soon?


Beagle

Its a real testament to their nous, there is so much competition and yet they continue to deliver.
I agree focus on what works.
hold HLG

[Beagle]

So HLG 10 year earnings growth in line with the NZX50 earnings growth ....but the NZX50 currently trading at a PE 0f 33 odd

Hmmmm...makes you think eh. Still being priced like a no growth cyclical company...but what if Glassons growth in Australia is no fluke and they keep growing, (current sales are still a bit less than N.Z.) and the Australian market is 6 times the size. Oh my goodness, wouldn't that be something ! Think our mate Couta1 is very well positioned. Keep an eye out, a little birdie tells me he might be in the top 20 holders list next year.

[BlackPeter]

So HLG 10 year earnings growth in line with the NZX50 earnings growth ....but the NZX50 currently trading at a PE 0f 33 odd

Sure - though NZX50 contain as well a number of "growth" companies with growth (often well) beyond 10 %. I am talking about companies like RYM, SUM, ATM, MFT, FPH - to name just a few. They certainly would deserve a higher PE, wouldn't they?

The other thing is - many NZX 50 companies (like AIA, Gentailers, port companies) are traded as "quasi-bonds" - they naturally will have a higher PE. Do you see HLG in the same class? If yes, then $15 can't be far away (which would be a PE of 30).

Who knows ... markets are going mysterious ways ...

[kiwidollabill]

Apparel market (globally) has certainly changed.....

Lots of higher end e-com brands in the US taking share away from incumbents (i.e. JC Penny), they've made themselves far more relevant to the changing consumer rather than just being a 'household name'.

If HLG have build strategic capability within their people to remain agile when others are stagnant then they will continue to do well at the expense at others who remain more exposed to volatility in the market place.