HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

Sure - though NZX50 contain as well a number of "growth" companies with growth (often well) beyond 10 %. I am talking about companies like RYM, SUM, ATM, MFT, FPH - to name just a few. They certainly would deserve a higher PE, wouldn't they?

The other thing is - many NZX 50 companies (like AIA, Gentailers, port companies) are traded as "quasi-bonds" - they naturally will have a higher PE. Do you see HLG in the same class? If yes, then $15 can't be far away (which would be a PE of 30).

Who knows ... markets are going mysterious ways ...

Many people thought I was completely nuts buying this at $2.70 just over 3 years ago. Could it possibly double again over the next few years, who knows but what's clear is there's a massive opportunity for Glassons in Australia.

[winner69]

Hallensteins / Glassons doing the right things

Provide experiences, be relevant etc etc etc


Brick-and-Mortar Stores Are Making a Comeback

https://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/brick-and-mortar-stores-are-making-a-comeback?cid=spmailing-29843512-WK%20Newsletter%2010-30-2019%20(1)-October%2030,%202019

[Beagle]

Finally through that $6 resistance.
Somebody will come out with 'resistance once broken often becomes support'.

To infinity and beyond :p
'resistance once broken often becomes support'.
To infinity and beyond :p There you go, I agree :D

[winner69]

Sure - though NZX50 contain as well a number of "growth" companies with growth (often well) beyond 10 %. I am talking about companies like RYM, SUM, ATM, MFT, FPH - to name just a few. They certainly would deserve a higher PE, wouldn't they?

The other thing is - many NZX 50 companies (like AIA, Gentailers, port companies) are traded as "quasi-bonds" - they naturally will have a higher PE. Do you see HLG in the same class? If yes, then $15 can't be far away (which would be a PE of 30).

Who knows ... markets are going mysterious ways ...

Somebody on here says divies have averaged over 30 cents for years through thick and thin.

Bigger company now BP so probably 40 cents new average

On that basis good case to ‘price’ as a bond ...consistent annual return of 40 cents say $8 good risk adjusted deal . Not quite your $15 but still pretty good

[Beagle]

Was Coutts and average over 16 years from memory was 31.5 cps fully imputed. Even paid dividends during the GFC so there is clearly good resiliency built into their business model. Agree that there has been substantial growth in recent years and 41.5 cps is the new 31.5 cps if you know what I mean.

But I think 44 cps is sustainable and that's 44 / 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross so the shares are on over a 10% gross yield and trade cum a 24 cps final divvy.

$6 is indeed the strong new support line. No logical reason for it to go under that again. Onward and upward and anyone who thinks this is a pure cyclical simply doesn't understand Glassons growth in Australia, simple as that. Heck even Hallensteins brand in Australia is looking at expansion now :) Talk about opportunity for growth !!

[winner69]

Share price still going up...and up

Must be starting to be priced as a good solid ‘bond’

Tiwai Pt shouldn’t affect HLG

[BlackPeter]

Share price still going up...and up

Must be starting to be priced as a good solid ‘bond’

Tiwai Pt shouldn’t affect HLG

Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ;); Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill?

[couta1]

Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ;); Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill? Your a trier but no cigar. PS-These beauties keep going up and MEL keeps dropping but that's what happens to way overvalued shares aye.

[winner69]

Jeez — share price $6.25

Still cheap aso. Fundamentals and outlook ....and even more so if they do get prices as a de facto ‘bond’

[winner69]

Many people thought I was completely nuts buying this at $2.70 just over 3 years ago. Could it possibly double again over the next few years, who knows but what's clear is there's a massive opportunity for Glassons in Australia.

You were completely nuts ...you didn’t buy enough

But maybe there was a risk that all these global brands were going to wipe them out.

[Beagle]

You were completely nuts ...you didn’t buy enough

But maybe there was a risk that all these global brands were going to wipe them out.

I did had a solid go at it at $2.70 relative to the size of my share portfolio back in August 2016. Was just over 10% portfolio allocation at the time, (from memory).
These days I am reluctant to have 10%+ positions...getting more conservative as I get older eh...not necessarily always a good thing...

[couta1]

I did had a solid go at it at $2.70 relative to the size of my share portfolio back in August 2016. Was just over 10% portfolio allocation at the time, (from memory).
These days I am reluctant to have 10%+ positions...getting more conservative as I get older eh...not necessarily always a good thing... Trouble is Beagle you didnt staunch it out and hold your $2.70 lot on top of not having enough but you've stepped upto the plate recently with your Barra holding so not too conservative there.

[BWH]

Who knows ... just imagine the unthinkable happens, Tiwai point closes and all the poor Southland workers (if unemployed) can't afford anymore to buy all these smart Hallenstein Brothers suits ;); Might make a dent into the online sales ... or do they have a shop in Invercargill?

Yes there's a shop in Invercargill. Been there a long time!

[winner69]

Consumer confidence pretty good at moment ....good for Hallensteins and Glassons in lead up to Xmas

Consumers were feeling more confident in October, with their perception of their current situation the best it has been since 2007.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9b845b89/consumer-confidence-ticks-up-in-october.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Consumer%20confidence%20ticks%20up%20 in%20October&utm_content=Consumer%20confidence%20ticks%20up%20i n%20October+CID_419bccef63f4bb1b8f0243f130c3f55b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle9b845b89consum er-confidence-ticks-up-in-octoberhtml

[BlackPeter]

Yes there's a shop in Invercargill. Been there a long time!

Good on them. Just demonstrating here my lack of knowledge of the deep South. Te Anau and Dunedin have been so far the most Southern towns I've been in ...

[Beagle]

Consumer confidence pretty good at moment ....good for Hallensteins and Glassons in lead up to Xmas

Consumers were feeling more confident in October, with their perception of their current situation the best it has been since 2007.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/9b845b89/consumer-confidence-ticks-up-in-october.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Consumer%20confidence%20ticks%20up%20 in%20October&utm_content=Consumer%20confidence%20ticks%20up%20i n%20October+CID_419bccef63f4bb1b8f0243f130c3f55b&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle9b845b89consum er-confidence-ticks-up-in-octoberhtml

Wow, that's quite surprising.

[winner69]

ABS Retail Sales data for September month - clothing sector +3.5% on same month last year.

With share gains Glassons growth will be much greater ...that’s good

Beagle - the papers and bank economist reports you read will be full of gloom and doom. Like the Westpac one which said -

The September retail report disappointed in every respect. Monthly sales showed another weak gain, up just 0.2%, and real retail sales contracted 0.1% in the quarter to be down –0.2%yr, the first annual contraction since the early 1990s recession. .....,..and interest rate cuts, tax cuts and other fiscal stimulus not working.

[Maverick]

Just to offer an alternative perspective to the current positivity on HLG , specifically the share price, I've just fully sold out.
Yes, it has and is a great company, run well, high div's in a low interest environment,long record of profits, potential growth in Aussy, etc etc.... but the share price is now maxed out IMO.
The ratio of 6 monthly NPAT /share price is at the same level last seen in CY2013.HLG was then on a roll of increasing profits but unexpectedly reported a much lesser 6 monthly result and the share price was then walloped. That ratio has been substantially (and consistent) at a much lower level for seven years since then and now.
Looking at what happened back in 2013, the share price had risen at a similar rate as now to about $5.70 from About $3.50 and within 6 months of that record it was back at about $3.00.
I've said before I don't care for share price charting but I really do care about ratios. I'm just saying that market expectations that are now baked into the share price are at historically high levels, and HLG have significantly disappointed the market from these levels before.
I am a value investor and I think the value here has been maximised, now we are seeing growth being added to the equation to sustain this share price,which IMO is dangerous in the rag trade.

[Beagle]

Retail sector comparison
Historical PE
BGR 13.15
KMD 12.83
WHS 14.96
HLG 12.83
Average 13.44
I note HGH have a significantly higher percentage of their total sales 15%, online than any of the others.
Sales growth year to date in FY20 is over 7% and they are executing sales growth in Australia with Glasson's extremely well.

I remain very comfortable with HLG's metrics and think its one of the cheapest and most misunderstood growth stocks on the NZX.
No analysis of HLG's current metrics would be accurate without considering it currently trades cum a large 24 cent fully imputed dividend which goes ex in the next few weeks. Ex Dividend at $6.00 the historical PE is just 12.34 making it the cheapest stock in the retail sector in N.Z. by quite some margin but I would argue the one with the most growth potential and the best gross yield.

[couta1]

Just to offer an alternative perspective to the current positivity on HLG , specifically the share price, I've just fully sold out.
Yes, it has and is a great company, run well, high div's in a low interest environment,long record of profits, potential growth in Aussy, etc etc.... but the share price is now maxed out IMO.
The ratio of 6 monthly NPAT /share price is at the same level last seen in CY2013.HLG was then on a roll of increasing profits but unexpectedly reported a much lesser 6 monthly result and the share price was then walloped. That ratio has been substantially (and consistent) at a much lower level for seven years since then and now.
Looking at what happened back in 2013, the share price had risen at a similar rate as now to about $5.70 from About $3.50 and within 6 months of that record it was back at about $3.00.
I've said before I don't care for share price charting but I really do care about ratios. I'm just saying that market expectations that are now baked into the share price are at historically high levels, and HLG have significantly disappointed the market from these levels before.
I am a value investor and I think the value here has been maximised, now we are seeing growth being added to the equation to sustain this share price,which IMO is dangerous in the rag trade. No bend in the end at this point in time so stay with the smart money.

[peat]

so interesting isnt it, two clever articulate people both with completely opposing views on the same stock.
...makes a market.

Great to meet you Maverick and glad that you're posting here , fantastic to listen to your angle.

(Holder , but not a buyer)

[BlackPeter]

No bend in the end at this point in time so stay with the smart money.

Actually - SP approaching a past ATH $6.35 at 31/8/18. The people who bought at that stage into the hype will hope it will keep climbing.

Personally not so sure what the "smart" money will do (the money I know is not smart, though useful), but I'd say the jury is still out whether it is smart to keep holding.

I agree with Maverick that the downside potential from here looks much larger than the potential for future gains.

[couta1]

Actually - SP approaching a past ATH $6.35 at 31/8/18. The people who bought at that stage into the hype will hope it will keep climbing.

Personally not so sure what the "smart" money will do (the money I know is not smart, though useful), but I'd say the jury is still out whether it is smart to keep holding.

I agree with Maverick that the downside potential from here looks much larger than the potential for future gains. Well you'd better convince the likes of Glasson/Hickman/ACC to mention a few to sell their smart money then. Lol

[macduffy]

No doubt that HLG is expensive but then, so is the whole market. Past SP movements need to be tempered by consideration of today's low interest rates and comparative yields. I'm staying with HLG for the income, at this stage.

[winner69]

What MAV was saying about F13 shown in chart below

Must say that currently HLG share price doesn’t have ‘high expectations baked’ into it. Share price generally has performed in line with earnings.

Mav and BP are entitled to think that earnings will decline from this point in time.

Another point it’s a yield market these days. At the F13 high the OCR was 2.5% and it’s now 1.0% and heading lower

Who knows - HLG could be $8 next year or it could be $4

[couta1]

What MAV was saying about F13 shown in chart below

Must say that currently HLG share price doesn’t have ‘high expectations baked’ into it. Share price generally has performed in line with earnings.

Mav and BP are entitled to think that earnings will decline from this point in time.

Another point it’s a yield market these days. At the F13 high the OCR was 2.5% and it’s now 1.0% and heading lower

Who knows - HLG could be $8 next year or it could be $4 Lol I'm happy either way at $8 I've more than doubled my money and at $4 I'll double my holding.

[winner69]

The previous all time high was rather an artificial one being driven by that Aussie speculator who didn’t hang around for long and then sold out (probably at a big loss)

Good though, they drove share price down to $4 and gave Couts and others opportunity to make even more dosh.

At least today the market is more sincere - no signs of speculators.

[Maverick]

What MAV was saying about F13 shown in chart below

Must say that currently HLG share price doesn’t have ‘high expectations baked’ into it. Share price generally has performed in line with earnings.

Mav and BP are entitled to think that earnings will decline from this point in time.

Another point it’s a yield market these days. At the F13 high the OCR was 2.5% and it’s now 1.0% and heading lower

Who knows - HLG could be $8 next year or it could be $4
That's a mighty fine graph there Winner, I presume you made that yourself, well done and thanks for sharing.
The graphs I've made are in 6 monthly NPAT data points, that's where it gets interesting. The first 6 months NPAT of'19 is higher than the second half so splitting the last set of data on your chart ( the blue line) this way would indicate a divergence which annual reporting doesn't show. Then it looks like 'high expectations' to me.

Just for the record, Im not saying their earnings WILL go down but there is a real risk they might. And as stated I like owning good value shares and HLG is now outside that band IMO and into growth valuations, which they just MIGHT do.
HLG has been extremely good to me and I would love to buy them back some day.

Im sure the guys buying back in 2013 where no less smart than people today so I don't really see why we are "safe" this time around.

[Beagle]

Benchmark 10 year risk free rate is a lot lower, (more than 2% lower) than it was 2-3 years ago, which all other things being equal accords a PE of 2 more than what was applicable earlier. Fair PE for a company with zero growth is 11 (Ben Graham's 8.5 was with a 4% 10 year Govt stock rate, not a 1.5% rate).

HLG with a historical PE of about 12.4 (priced ex divvy at $6.00) is cheap compared to its retail peers as I have already demonstrated, executing better than most (probably all in my opinion) and very cheap compared to the forward market PE average said to be about 29. Quite aside from that holders are compensated very handsomely with a 10% annual yield.

I think its clear Glassons in Australia is a brand that garnering a genuine following amongst Australian women and the company has attained critical mass over there and has superb growth prospects, (market is 6 times the size over there and sales are still slightly below N.Z.)
I think some people understand the life cycle of a brand and how its built and developed over time and how momentum builds with word of mouth among women who (lets face it) are often far better with yabbering with their friends than guys are. I guess you either believe they can continue to grow their market share in Australia or you don't. (I do).

One is not paying much of a premium at all compared to a no growth company for a company that clearly is growing. Naysayers on this stock have always been in very plentiful supply and not always anywhere near as polite as the current ones. I am happy to continue to hold what I believe is an exceptionally well managed company trading on compelling metrics, with excellent prospects and a very rewarding yield.

[winner69]

HLG is rather ‘cyclical’ isn’t it - both earnings and Shareprice (because share price follows earnings eh)

Maybe Maverick has played this right ...and BP super smart staying out for now

[Beagle]

Checked my portfolio allocation and its exactly 5% so I am quite sure I am not suffering from confirmation bias or myopic vision and can clearly analyze the risks and potential rewards. More than happy to continue to hold with my free carry position.

[iceman]

I am with Beagle and couta1 on this one. Have been slowly accumulating for my income portfolio. Has just overtaken HGH as 18% of my NZX portfolio. Mostly due to reductions in electricity generators. Beagle has laid out very clearly why he likes HLG going forward. Basically a retail company that is growing online sales very fast and growing fast inAustralia. Debt free with very experienced managemaent

Equally convincing is the other side of the coin, Maverick, BP and others. ( winner69 somewhere in between) Fascinating. I’m firmly in the former and continue accumulating as cash flows allow. Will stop at 25% of portfolio ( and get wife to buy more into hers) though

[Beagle]

I really do like the way HLG pay out their massive end of year dividend about a week before Christmas. There's very few other dividends at that time of year (Kingfish, Barramundi, Marlin are noteable exceptions), but plenty of Xmas and holiday costs so for me its perfect timing.

[winner69]

Westpac guru says ”Households wallets and purses snapped closed in October, with retail spending levels down 0.6% over the month. That was weaker than we or analysts more generally had expected.”

But they were 3.4% higher than October last year (exc MV stuff)

Mind you clothing etc was down 1,4% on last year

No worries for HLG - as long as they hold their own in NZ it’s all OK because the growth is coming from Australia

[percy]

Walked through Westfield Riccarton on Friday.
Lovisa. Busy.
KMart.Actually decided on a shirt,but put it back, as the line at the check out was too long.
Glassons.Store looked good and they were busy.
Hallensteins.Not busy.Merchandise was not to my liking.
H&M.Not busy.One shirt I liked ,but could not figure out their sizes.
Farmers.Not busy.Menswear dept was very badly set out.
Cotton On and other rag trade stores.Very quiet.

[macduffy]

Ah, so there's who the mystery shopper is in Westfield Riccarton!

;)

[percy]

Ah, so there's who the mystery shopper is in Westfield Riccarton!

;)

If I get time I will check out some Sydney stores this weekend.
Hopefully I will not be forced to go shopping.!!.lol.

ps.Flying home on one of those aircraft with the cracks.

[Beagle]

HLG's track record of eps (rounded to one decimal place)
2014 23.9
2015 29.2
2016 22.9
2017 29.0
2018 45.9
2019 48.7

Average annual compound growth rate in earnings per share over the last 5 years = 15% per annum.

Comparing Turners to Hallensteins is like comparing chalk to cheese and yet the latter trades at only a PE premium of 2 above Turners.

Current year prospects are also good with the latest information available that sales are growing at over 7%.
Of course the naysayers will tell you that HLG is a cyclical company at its peak and that the internet of everything is going to undermine their business model something terrible. Various naysayers have been saying that since I first bought at $2.70 in 2016 and they've been wrong over and over again.

Gross yield now is 44 / 603 (6.27-0.24) (I am working this off the theoretical ex divvy price as the very near term divvy of 24 cents is probably already baked into the price) = 7.3% fully imputed = 10.1% gross, so the yield is better than Turners too.

I think this is a clear case where holding some of each would lead to diworseification. HLG my preferred, and only retail stock I own. I am inclined to buy more after looking at the facts regarding their growth rate but will wait for the annual meeting update. Coutts appears to be very well positioned.
I am encouraged by the ongoing strong growth and future growth prospects of Glassons in Australia.

[iceman]

Good work thank you Beagle

[percy]

I think a lot of us under estimate the huge importance of HLG's online sales .
Their online division has had incredible growth,which is continuing.

[Beagle]

The best growth and highest percentage of goods sold online (15%) of any retailer in N.Z. including the master Rod Duke at Briscoes ! (No small feat to beat his abilities) !

In my view for where the 10 year Govt stock rate (risk free rate) is now, a no growth company should be on a PE of 11.
HLG is trading at a PE premium of just 1 to a fair risk free adjusted no growth rate company and yet their eps growth rate has been 15% per annum average for the last 5 years. Their stock turn is exceptional too at more than 4, more than once per season which is incredible for an apparel retailer !

Their PEG rate is 12/15 = 0.8. Some other company I posted a PEG rate of well under one the other day is now in play for a takeover. I really hope that doesn't happen to HLG as I am genuinely excited for the growth prospects of Glassons in Australia. Winner reckons the market there is six times the size of ours and fast growing Glassons sales there are still a little less than N.Z.

Fast growing retailers can have much higher PE's. A good example is "Canada Goose" on a forward PE of 30 !

HLG not in their league by any means but I do think if they can continue to prove their growth rate in Australia the market might accord HLG a slightly higher multiple.

[percy]

If you are keen on retailers do not forget LOV on ASX.Best retail business model I have ever seen.
I very much doubt Tim Glasson will sell while his son is doing such a great job running Glassons in Australia.

[Beagle]

One of KW's favourite's eh and I know she's done very well out of it in the past :)
Historic PE now 33 and has broken down through its 100 day moving average and looks to be in a fresh downtrend. Thanks for the reminder but I think I'll pass.
Tim Glasson should be very proud of his son, he's doing very well.

Just a reminder that this pending change makes life a bit easier for N.Z. retailers https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/gst-on-offshore-purchases-kicks-in-on-sunday/ar-BBXqVCE?ocid=spartandhp

[BlackPeter]

The best growth and highest percentage of goods sold online (15%) of any retailer in N.Z. including the master Rod Duke at Briscoes ! (No small feat to beat his abilities).
In my view for where the 10 year Govt stock rate (risk free rate) is now, a no growth company should be on a PE of 11.
HLG is trading at a PE premium of just 1 to a fair risk free adjusted no growth rate company and yet their eps growth rate has been 15% per annum average for the last 5 years.
Their stock turn is exceptional too at more than 4, more than once per season which is incredible for an apparel retailer !

Their PEG rate is 12/15 = 0.8. Some other company I posted a PEG rate of well under one the other day is now in play for a takeover. Hope that doesn't happen to HLG.

Interesting which difference it makes for the growth rates whether you use a five year or six year timeframe ... but I leave that up to you to calculate ;);

I base my assessment these days typically on (averaged out) 10 year CAGR's to make sure that individual particularly good or bad years don't distort the picture.

Based on that was HLG's earnings growth 3.8% per year. Not that exciting, isn't it? If I combine that with a (10 year) PE of 18.8 - hey people need to have a lot of trust into increasing future growth rates.

But again - I think it just depends whether you see HLG as a more or less exciting cyclical - or whether you think their growth will be exponential and outgrow the climate hockey stick :);.

While we all remember a number of retail outlets in the past showing amazing growth rates for a handful of years, I can't really name one which did this over a longer period of time. Can you?

[couta1]

Had a chat with the Beagle and we just talked ourselves into buying more of these beauties.

[Beagle]

BP - This is the method I use and it works well for me so I am sticking with it.
Best guide to the future performance of a company in this order is:-
1. The most recent past
2. Extrapolation of the trend of financial performance over the last 5 years
3. What the company says about its outlook.

Going back further than five years, (when the business model, trading conditions, management and directors could have been very different) and somehow trying to argue this history is just as valid as far more recent history runs the real risk of watering down more valuable more recent information and in my opinion is more than likely to be unhelpful. Yes its more conservative but that's not necessarily helpful.

For me the underlying value is clear and the opportunity for significant future growth in Australia with Glassons is also crystal clear so as Couta1 has said, I have also added more today. I guess it comes down to whether you believe the opportunity in Australia is big or not. I'm definitely a believer.

[RTM]

BP - This is the method I use and it works well for me so I am sticking with it.
Best guide to the future performance of a company in this order is:-
1. The most recent past
2. Extrapolation of the trend of financial performance over the last 5 years
3. What the company says about its outlook.

Going back further than five years, (when the business model, trading conditions, management and directors could have been very different) and somehow trying to argue this history is just as valid as far more recent history runs the real risk of watering down more valuable more recent information and in my opinion is more than likely to be unhelpful. Yes its more conservative but that's not necessarily helpful.

For me the underlying value is clear and the opportunity for significant future growth in Australia with Glassons is also crystal clear so as Couta1 has said, I have also added more today. I guess it comes down to whether you believe the opportunity in Australia is big or not. I'm definitely a believer.

Hope you're not going beyond a very prudent % of your portfolio Beagle. Warehouse, Kathmandu, Michael Hill....

[Beagle]

Disciplined dog as usual...

[percy]

Enjoyed the joke.!...lol.

[Beagle]

Disciplined every day by Mrs Beagle lol

[Joshuatree]

50 shades of collars ;)

[winner69]

HLG's track record of eps (rounded to one decimal place)
2014 23.9
2015 29.2
2016 22.9
2017 29.0
2018 45.9
2019 48.7

Average annual compound growth rate in earnings per share over the last 5 years = 15% per annum.
.

With Glassons NZ probably maxed out often recent burst and Hallensteins profit in decline the group won’t be growing earnings at 15% pa for the next 5 years will they?


As you say the future is all about Glassons AU .....need to keep sales growth momentum and to improve margins

One could say the NZ (inc Hallensteins Au) is currently on a PE of 10/11 and Glassons AU is on a PE of around 20

That’s how I see it at the moment

[Beagle]

Page 4 of the annual report sheds some valuable insight into your contention mate, and I quote
Glassons New Zealand
"Sales for the year were $100.73 million, an increase of 3.91% on the prior year. Sales growth in the second half continued to build and improve on the growth in the first half of the year" Nothing wrong with N.Z. sales growth for Glassons.

Impossible to project forward what future average earnings growth might be but well worth noting a couple of things.
1. You are ostensibly paying almost nothing for future growth, only trading about 1 multiple higher than a no growth company would be for 10 year Govt stock at just 1.3%.
2. The opportunity in Australia with sales just behind N.Z. despite their market being 6? times the size is huge and they have real momentum over there are are obviously well lead by young Glasson.

This is a classic GAARP stock. (Growth at a reasonable price) forward PE about 12 on theoretical ex divvy price of $6, and shareholders are being paid very handsomely at 10% gross yield, to be patient and enjoy more growth going forward. Other good GAARP's on the NZx where you pay nothing or almost nothing for growth include MET, (forward PE 11.7 @ $5.80 and HGH, forward PE 12.2 @ $1.68).

I like GAARP stocks as its hard to go too far wrong with them.

Latest consumer confidence survey out today shows more optimism and GST is going on imported clothes from Monday next week. These things help.

Possibly worth noting that sales for YTD for FY20 as last advised by the company are growing at more than twice last year's rate overall. I'm looking forward to the annual meeting update on 11 December.

[Beagle]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/online-gst-rules-kick-in/ar-BBXzELP?ocid=spartandhp
Level's the playfield for local retailers.

I talked a bit about GARP stocks this week. HLG and MET fit this definition perfectly. Here's a bit more about this strategy if anyone's interested.
https://tradebrains.in/what-are-garp-stocks-growth-at-a-reasonable-price/

[Beagle]

Retail sector comparison
Historical PE
BGR 13.15
KMD 12.83
WHS 14.96
HLG 12.83
Average 13.44
I note HGH have a significantly higher percentage of their total sales 15%, online than any of the others.
Sales growth year to date in FY20 is over 7% and they are executing sales growth in Australia with Glasson's extremely well.

I remain very comfortable with HLG's metrics and think its one of the cheapest and most misunderstood growth stocks on the NZX.
No analysis of HLG's current metrics would be accurate without considering it currently trades cum a large 24 cent fully imputed dividend which goes ex in the next few weeks. Ex Dividend at $6.00 the historical PE is just 12.34 making it the cheapest stock in the retail sector in N.Z. by quite some margin but I would argue the one with the most growth potential and the best gross yield.

Sticking with this post 5/11/2019 and I note the NZX50 had a huge month of up ~ 5% in November and HLG only up 10 cents since then. Had a look at the chart this morning and there's a lovely clear uptrend so TA lines up fair and square with my fundamental analysis. Happy I added more last week and I think there's plenty of juice to come with this one.

[couta1]

Smoking along.

[oldtech]

I talked a bit about GARP stocks this week. HLG and MET fit this definition perfectly. Here's a bit more about this strategy if anyone's interested.
https://tradebrains.in/what-are-garp-stocks-growth-at-a-reasonable-price/

Nice read, thanks Beagle

[winner69]

Smoking along.

Black Friday specials went gangbusters I believe

[couta1]

At this rate it ain't going back to $6 ex divvy and in fact with things continuing on track it's going to $7.

[winner69]

At this rate it ain't going back to $6 ex divvy and in fact with things continuing on track it's going to $7.

$7 ex divvy of course

[Beagle]

Black Friday specials went gangbusters I believe

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/black-friday-spending-frenzy-tops-boxing-day-sales/ar-BBXFvai?ocid=spartandhp

[winner69]

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/money/news/black-friday-spending-frenzy-tops-boxing-day-sales/ar-BBXFvai?ocid=spartandhp

You are meant to highlight the ‘shoppers favoured clothing stores’ bit

[winner69]

If things are really going gangbusters than even Hallensteins might be finally showing earnings growth

Profit about the same as it was 5 years ago and F19 was a disaster

My big parcel of Black Friday specials arrived a while ago ....had to chase the parcel down the road in the 130k winds. Stupid courier left it on the ground in the street by the letter box ...stupid eh

I should have said the stuff never arrived ....might have got two lots

[peat]

I dont think anyone mentioned it but there was an article about how more consumers are doing their online shopping with local companies , gotta be good!

[couta1]

Group sales up 7.1% on prior corresponding period looks good, margin pressure not so good but part of the game.

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/345386/313294.pdf
Yes a very good and solid update and I note the recent lift in the $Kiwi which will be of assistance going forward.
Happy holder.

[winner69]

Group sales up 7.1% on prior corresponding period looks good, margin pressure not so good but part of the game.

NZD stronger this week

looks like a bit of earnings growth in F20 ....but nowhere near Beagles 15% pa :p:):cool::scared:

All honky dory ,,,,but no doubt some will see as a veiled 'downgrade'

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/345386/313294.pdf

[winner69]

First 8 weeks sales +7.23%

First 16 weeks sales +7.1%

So hanging in there (no need for beagle to work out last 8 weeks growth this year)

[percy]

First 8 weeks sales +7.23%

First 16 weeks sales +7.1%

So hanging in there (no need for beagle to work out last 8 weeks growth this year)

Wonder whether the sales increase will cover the lost margins.
Doubt they will tell us next Wednesday at the agm.
Think they will have to wait to the end of January before they have a clearer picture.

[winner69]

Wonder whether the sales increase will cover the lost margins.
Doubt they will tell us next Wednesday at the agm.
Think they will have to wait to the end of January before they have a clearer picture.


Last year HLG couldn't convert solid sales growth into increased profit

On an apples for apples basis sales up 6% but profit down 4%

Last year things were just 'challenging' but this year they use words like 'competitive' and 'significant'

A good full year outcome I reckon will be profit the same as last year ....no growth but not going backwards...and keeping that HUGE DIVIDEND intact

[percy]

Last year HLG couldn't convert solid sales growth into increased profit

On an apples for apples basis sales up 6% but profit down 4%

Last year things were just 'challenging' but this year they use words like 'competitive' and 'significant'

A good full year outcome I reckon will be profit the same as last year ....no growth but not going backwards...and keeping that HUGE DIVIDEND intact

Agree.
Black Friday,Boxing Day Sales,etc eat into retailers' margins.
Then you only need WHS or Farmers to panic,and everyone's margins come under further pressure.
Yet HLG will keep paying the huge divie.Those growing online sales become more important all the time.

[Beagle]

Exchange rates will fluctuate and go up and down, that's a given. I am focused on the long term and whether their current dividend is sustainable and I think it is and that in the long run the current sales growth (which builds very nicely upon sales growth in previous years), provides encouragement that HLG as a company and as a brand is doing very well.

[winner69]

Clothing retail market all good in Australia ....not going gangbusters but pretty good

ABS report clothing sector sales for October +2.1% on pcp ...last 3 months +3.6% up on pcp

Wonder how Glassons going ....maybe gangbusters

[stoploss]

Just wanted to let the faithful know that the main store on Lambton Quay is pumping along nicely ...
Been out in the paddock a bit long over the winter so my dinner suit trousers were a little tight. Decided to have a Look in Hallensteins.
$ 199 or $ 299 for a full dinner suit . I found a pair of black trousers that did what I needed for $ 79.00 . Gladly accepted the up sell
of 2 for $ 99.00...So your next divvy is safe .....They even had a dude spinning some discs to create a bit of atmosphere .
I won't comment on the soft porn posters adorning the lower floor walls :)

[Beagle]

Must be that time of year to check out the latest Glassons swimwear collection https://www.glassons.com/clothing/swimwear, all 11 pages of it :blush:
Beagle is that you being naughty again...bad dog, get back in your kennel (Mrs Beagle)

[couta1]

Must be that time of year to check out the latest Glassons swimwear collection https://www.glassons.com/clothing/swimwear, all 11 pages of it :blush:
Beagle is that you being naughty again...bad dog, get back in your kennel (Mrs Beagle) I'm sure all those ones over on the Viagra thread having problems could give themselves a hand up by having a good look, perhaps the medication may not be needed after all.:cool:

[percy]

Do they have "the models" "in the flesh" at the agm.?

[Beagle]

Do they have "the models" "in the flesh" at the agm.?

Rumour has it that would be liable for fringe benefit tax :lol:

[forest]

Do they have "the models" "in the flesh" at the agm.?

A few years ago the AGM was in Auckland, and indeed the AGM started with some models showing of a range of clothing. Not to sure if it added to the AGM information much as their cloding can be seen everywere.

[winner69]

Talking of models I love the way that HLG conveniently incept user friendly models that competently drives user friendly e-commerce

Shows resilience

[Beagle]

Well...I am modelling... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Tap9Cf_7Y :lol: :lol: a fall of 24 cents in HLG's share price as it goes ex its 24 cent divvy tomorrow.

[oldtech]

Well...I am modelling... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9Tap9Cf_7Y :lol: :lol: a fall of 24 cents in HLG's share price as it goes ex its 24 cent divvy tomorrow.

Ah, but the interesting time comes during the day as we watch to see how quickly the SP recovers ...

... or doesn't

[Beagle]

Ah, but the interesting time comes during the day as we watch to see how quickly the SP recovers ...

... or doesn't

The Beagle in that video didn't get up, there's your clue.

[Beagle]

And so it came to pass. Shares went ex a 24 cent divvy. Share price down by exactly double that at 48 cents, albeit on very light volume.
You don't see that sort of share price reaction very often. Even VWAP for the day of $6.02 was down 36 cents.
Bounce back tomorrow or maybe after the annual meeting on Wednesday 11th ?

Anyone on here planning on attending the annual meeting ?

[percy]

I will be there in body,but depending on the models, my mind may be elsewhere.?

[winner69]

And so it came to pass. Shares went ex a 24 cent divvy. Share price down by exactly double that at 48 cents, albeit on very light volume.
You don't see that sort of share price reaction very often. Even VWAP for the day of $6.02 was down 36 cents.
Bounce back tomorrow or maybe after the annual meeting on Wednesday 11th ?

Anyone on here planning on attending the annual meeting ?

Share price smashed eh

[Beagle]

I will be there in body,but depending on the models, my mind may be elsewhere.?

:lol: :lol: Photo's please :D

[Beagle]

Share price smashed eh

$5.90 was only on volume of a few hundred shares. VWAP of $6.02 is still something of a disappointment but not entirely unexpected.
Most of my earlier analysis around yield was based off a $6 theoretical ex divvy price giving 44 / 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross divvies sustainable going forward = 10.2% gross.
$6 ex divvy feels about right to me considering the recent currency headwind which has now abated somewhat. Good long term hold at that price for yield in my opinion.

[couta1]

$5.90 was only on volume of a few hundred shares. VWAP of $6.02 is still something of a disappointment but not entirely unexpected.
Most of my earlier analysis around yield was based off a $6 theoretical ex divvy price giving 44 / 0.72 = 61.11 cps gross divvies sustainable going forward = 10.2% gross.
$6 ex divvy feels about right to me considering the recent currency headwind which has now abated somewhat. Good long term hold at that price for yield in my opinion. Exactly on such a low volume drop means nothing but if it goes much lower I'll be adding more to my holding.

[Timesurfer]

Retailers across the country reporting that spend is down this December.
Could be because I ventured into retail but surely that would not have had a country wide effect?

[iceman]

Exactly on such a low volume drop means nothing but if it goes much lower I'll be adding more to my holding.

Couldn´t help myself and "reinvested" the divies I will get on the 17th :-)

[Beagle]

Retailers across the country reporting that spend is down this December.
Could be because I ventured into retail but surely that would not have had a country wide effect?

Not what I have been reading in recent weeks. Have you got any press articles you could provide to further articulate your point of view ?

Good on ya Iceman. I have my paw pretty close to the buy button to do the same.

[couta1]

Couldn´t help myself and "reinvested" the divies I will get on the 17th :-) Well done, I will do the same with mine when it is paid next week if the price remains at current level or less.

[Timesurfer]

Not what I have been reading in recent weeks. Have you got any press articles you could provide to further articulate your point of view ?

No, purely anecdotal. I am talking to local retailers, some of whom are part of national chains and they are saying numbers are down across the country. Maybe other stores are up? Foot traffic has certainly been thin in the local mall.

[Beagle]

I guess it depends who you talk too. https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/retail-sales-annual

[winner69]

I guess it depends who you talk too. https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zealand/retail-sales-annual

accountonomists like beagle always gets the facts ......good people accountonomists

[Snow Leopard]

Fairly obvious that Beagle is using historical (aka 'out of date') data and Timesurfer is using live data (aka 'the pulse').

Also fairly obvious that the average Kiwi having overspent in the third quarter is now in miser mode.

So while you both may be right, I am definitely righter :p.

[winner69]

Maybe timesurfer correct

Quote: Group sales for the first 17 weeks of the new financial year are +6.7% on the prior corresponding period.

Weren’t they +7.1% for first 16 weeks ....that 17th week must have been really really quite ..or in timesurfer lingo ‘spend is down’ ...and wasn’t Black Friday in that 17th week

Maybe Beagle could use some of his accounonomist skills to assess what’s happened in that 17th week.

Was market Price Sensitive as well.

[mfd]

Definitely reads like they're coming off the boil. Good news is they say they can maintain dividends due to strength of the balance sheet. Heading back to the situation a few years ago where they paid out more on dividends than they made in profit?

[Timesurfer]

I hope I am the wrong one - I need sales to pick up!

[couta1]

Definitely reads like they're coming off the boil. Good news is they say they can maintain dividends due to strength of the balance sheet. Heading back to the situation a few years ago where they paid out more on dividends than they made in profit? Doesnt sound like that to me and the dollar strengthening over the last while will help, it's all about adaption and being innovative in today's market which they certainly are. Continued growth in Aussie will help fill any negative gaps and I'm feeling well positioned in an XXXOS kinda way.

[Beagle]

Not going to drill down into this other than to make these comments. The bushfires in Australia have been truly catastrophic and the extraordinary extent of the smoke in Sydney from news articles I have seen would have seen me staying indoors.

Exchange rate pressures have eased recently which will be somewhat helpful for margins in the next half. Sales are growing well and on a relative basis this is the cheapest retail stock on the NZX with arguably the best growth prospects.

[winner69]

Stats NZ - Electronic Card Spend for month of November

Apparel sales UP3.4% on last year. Best month for a while.

[Timesurfer]

Turns out locals are just miserable.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/118074643/nelson-not-catching-on-to-black-friday-wave (https://www.stuff.co.nz/nelson-mail/118074643/nelson-not-catching-on-to-black-friday-wave?fbclid=IwAR1-yCg3FPhyiG_DeZsfBY84kfObT8xh7VproiE64YdfEqls5HjUCG B0mQI)

[percy]

A very positive well conducted meeting.
Speakers spoke well,and certainly know the business.
James Glasson was interesting to listen to.Plenty of opportunities for growth in Australia.I like their measured approach.ie the figures have to line up before they sign on the line for new leases.
New Sydney distribution centre will be operating in February.Will be able to handle store and online growth.
Online sales growth is expected to continue.Being driven by Glassons,and particularly Glassons Australia.
I expect Glassons Australia to overtake NZ in the not too distant future,before accelerating away.
I also note HLG logistics are extremely well organised.This means stock is fast coming through the system,which must help margins,as they can clear stock quickly.

[couta1]

A very positive well conducted meeting.
Speakers spoke well,and certainly know the business.
James Glasson was interesting to listen to.Plenty of opportunities for growth in Australia.I like their measured approach.ie the figures have to line up before they sign on the line for new leases.
New Sydney distribution centre will be operating in February.Will be able to handle store and online growth.
Online sales growth is expected to continue.Being driven by Glassons,and particularly Glassons Australia.
I expect Glassons Australia to overtake NZ in the not too distant future,before accelerating away.
I also note HLG logistics are extremely well organised.This means stock is fast coming through the system,which must help margins,as the can clear stock quickly. Thanks Percy.

[winner69]

Not going to drill down into this other than to make these comments. The bushfires in Australia have been truly catastrophic and the extraordinary extent of the smoke in Sydney from news articles I have seen would have seen me staying indoors.

Exchange rate pressures have eased recently which will be somewhat helpful for margins in the next half. Sales are growing well and on a relative basis this is the cheapest retail stock on the NZX with arguably the best growth prospects.


A very positive well conducted meeting.
Speakers spoke well,and certainly know the business.
James Glasson was interesting to listen to.Plenty of opportunities for growth in Australia.I like their measured approach.ie the figures have to line up before they sign on the line for new leases.
New Sydney distribution centre will be operating in February.Will be able to handle store and online growth.
Online sales growth is expected to continue.Being driven by Glassons,and particularly Glassons Australia.
I expect Glassons Australia to overtake NZ in the not too distant future,before accelerating away.
I also note HLG logistics are extremely well organised.This means stock is fast coming through the system,which must help margins,as the can clear stock quickly.

Thanks percy

Their supply chain / stock management has always been world class ...probably the envy of most clothing retailers.

[winner69]

More than 5 stock turns a year

And every dollar of stock generates about 8 bucks of gross margin ...phenomenal

[kiwidollabill]

More than 5 stock turns a year

And every dollar of stock generates about 8 bucks of gross margin ...phenomenal

Even out performs Inditex with their own model....

[Beagle]

Stats NZ - Electronic Card Spend for month of November

Apparel sales UP3.4% on last year. Best month for a while.

Good info, thanks mate.

[percy]

HLG.November sales are twice October's,while December's are twice November's.[not a lot of people know that].lol.

[iceman]

Thanks for your good feedback Percy. Much appreciated.

[percy]

The Glassons business in Australia is a good deal different from Glassons NZ.
For a start there is a huge temperature difference between The Gold Coast and Melbourne.So winter season clothing must be brought to suit the locations.
Australian fashion has a bit more of an "edge" to it.Leads NZ. [Bondi store.very edgy]
Glassons Australia is run by Australians.James Glasson even spoke like an Australian.!
The two Australian directors play a big part .I am not sure whether James said Tim Glasson or Mary Devine were over there every two or three weeks.Plenty of support from the board.
Having the new distribution centre,new and upgraded stores, together with outlet stores gives me the impression James and his team are ready for the next growth stage.
Funding for the continued dividend and expansion comes from their strong balance sheet,and their excellent logistics, meaning better stock turns and better stock clear out.
Margin is higher in Australia,however overheads are higher too,so net profit balances out.
One thing I think I was wrong about.I always thought Mary Devine was just keeping the MD's seat warm for James Glasson.Today I very much doubt James will be brought back to NZ,as he is doing such a good job in Australia,and loving doing it.

[couta1]

Nice big divvy in the bank early this morning, half going on tax and the other half into more HLG shares.

[Beagle]

Indications retail spend is pretty strong https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118444564/christmas-spending-surpasses-last-year-reaching-86-billion

[winner69]

Indications retail spend is pretty strong https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118444564/christmas-spending-surpasses-last-year-reaching-86-billion

Could be a record half year for HLG in NZ coming up

They keep sending me emails saying I’m Awesome - if they say that I must be

[Beagle]

Could be a record half year for HLG in NZ coming up

They keep sending me emails saying I’m Awesome - if they say that I must be

There's no question mate, you are awesome ! :) Merry Christmas :)

[Beagle]

https://play.stuff.co.nz/details/_6118210665001 Looks like chaos at the malls today. Glad I slept in and chose to avoid the madness.

[mfd]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118478089/spending-habits-are-changing-with-kiwis-spending-more-on-black-friday-than-boxing-day

"Underlying spending for the key group of merchants was 0.4 per cent below Boxing Day last year.

Spending was up for the likes of sport equipment retailers, up 5.6 per cent, and hardware stores saw a 6.6 per cent increase but clothing and footwear stores saw a 7.6 per cent decline in sales from 2018"

Punters busy spending their money elsewhere this year

"Liquor stores were the big winners with a 14.2 per cent increase in spending on Boxing day"

[winner69]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/118478089/spending-habits-are-changing-with-kiwis-spending-more-on-black-friday-than-boxing-day

"Underlying spending for the key group of merchants was 0.4 per cent below Boxing Day last year.

Spending was up for the likes of sport equipment retailers, up 5.6 per cent, and hardware stores saw a 6.6 per cent increase but[B] clothing and footwear stores saw a 7.6 per cent decline in sales from 2018"[/bold]

Punters busy spending their money elsewhere this year

"Liquor stores were the big winners with a 14.2 per cent increase in spending on Boxing day"

No worries about clothes - punters don’t buy clothes on fine Boxing Days and most had bought on Black Friday anyway

[Beagle]

$Kiwi been doing very well lately. Currency headwind has disappeared which should be very assistive in the medium term going forward.

[winner69]

Guru wealth manager Mark Lister says NZD firmed 8% v USD over recent times
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12298126

Good news for HLG

Jeez ...with strong revenue growth and margins getting better they could be in record profits, esp as Australia gains real traction

[couta1]

Guru wealth manager Mark Lister says NZD firmed 8% v USD over recent times
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12298126

Good news for HLG

Jeez ...with strong revenue growth and margins getting better they could be in record profits, esp as Australia gains real traction We could be talking $7 and a 50c divvy here mate.

[Beagle]

Short term I am expecting some impact to Australia retail from the severe bush fires. Beyond the current season the currency will be of assistance at this level, although how much of next seasons stock has already been bought at lower currency level's is an unknown. Full impact of higher currency won't be felt until next year's financials'.
$6 is a hold in my opinion.

[winner69]

Less competition for Glassons in Australia as competitors just can’t hack it these days

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fashion-chain-bardot-closes-58-stores-as-retail-slump-bites-20200109-p53q2a.html

[couta1]

Less competition for Glassons in Australia as competitors just can’t hack it these days

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/fashion-chain-bardot-closes-58-stores-as-retail-slump-bites-20200109-p53q2a.html They keep falling by the wayside meanwhile HLG keeps steaming along, these others obviously haven't got the recipe right.

[winner69]

Aust Retail Sales - Clothing sector sales for November

Clothing up 6.0% from Nov18

That’s some increase for a county that apparently is in the doldrums

Wow - Glassons must be creaming it in Australia

[winner69]

Mosaic Brands share price plunges 16% on back of lowered guidance affected by Aussie bushfires

https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20200114/pdf/44d7rvdrvjw2zn.pdf

Don’t know if Glassons have many regional stores or just Metro based

[Beagle]

Metro based.

[winner69]

Metro based.

Whew ...that’s a relief

So Glassons sales still going great guns in Oz (I was going to say Glassons on fire in Oz but maybe not appropriate)

[oldtech]

Stores in Sydney (Parramatta, Bondi, Liverpool) and Melbourne (Highpoint and The Glen) I believe. At least those are the stores listed in the 2019 annual report.

[winner69]

There’s one or two outside the metro areas

Like I wonder if the clothes in the Werribee store smell a bit smokey - visibility down to a few hundred metres and smoke alarms going off all the time.

[MauroNZ]

Stores in Sydney (Parramatta, Bondi, Liverpool) and Melbourne (Highpoint and The Glen) I believe. At least those are the stores listed in the 2019 annual report.

In December I was looking online where the stores are in Sydney and I couldn't find them.

[Beagle]

3 News reported last night that a decent amount of fairly widespread rain is expected across the fire ravaged area's in the next few days, talking 30-80 mm's. Their prayers look like they might be answered. Hope they get the relief they need. Talk of the loss of 1 Billions animals is absolutely devastating and makes me very sad.

In my opinion, HLG will come through this with maybe a scratch or two, so too speak, that insurance will cover.

[couta1]

People always need to buy clothes fires or no fires so business as usual. PS-Always looking for any sp weakness to add to my already decent holding.

[oldtech]

I had to sell my not-so-decent holding last year when I needed some cash unfortunately, but now waiting for a good opportunity to top up.

Current SP as I check is $6.02, which based solely on last year's dividends of 44 cents gives a yield of 10.15% - not too shabby. Very tempted ...

[couta1]

I had to sell my not-so-decent holding last year when I needed some cash unfortunately, but now waiting for a good opportunity to top up.

Current SP as I check is $6.02, which based solely on last year's dividends of 44 cents gives a yield of 10.15% - not too shabby. Very tempted ... I bought a few thou more after the dividend at this price.

[tobo]

algorithms are working overtime to stop price falling below $6.

[tobo]

Woops, I made it close at $6.00.
Just thinking about what appears to have happened:
I put my $6 order in around noon, 3 or 4c below the sell depth. Instantaneously less than a quarter of my order was filled. So fast that I am thinking it was an algorithm that met my price with an offer that was not in the depth. (I was at the top of the depth list). Then a 1 share order joined my order, and lots of small orders above my price.
It then it spent all afternoon noodling around 3-4c above and I thought I had been beaten by the algos. So feeling lucky to have got my full order at my price. But also feeling maybe I learned something.
Discl: held.

[couta1]

Another iconic brand Jeanswest goes under in Aussie, 126 stores and 1000 jobs, at this rate HLG wont have a lot of competition left. Lol

[MauroNZ]

Another iconic brand Jeanswest goes under in Aussie, 126 stores and 1000 jobs, at this rate HLG wont have a lot of competition left. Lol

Interesting as I noted they closed 2 stores last year in Wellington, Lambtom Quay and North City Shopping.

[Beagle]

Another iconic brand Jeanswest goes under in Aussie, 126 stores and 1000 jobs, at this rate HLG wont have a lot of competition left. Lol

That's a LOT of stores ! People have to buy their jeans from somewhere and most want to try them on to see if they fit properly before doing so.

[clearasmud]

That's a LOT of stores ! People have to buy their jeans from somewhere and most want to try them on to see if they fit properly before doing so.

https://hotcopper.com.au/asx/jbh/corporate-spotlight/#cs-tab-5913

[winner69]

Wow - We suited up all 22 guys on TVNZ 2’s The Bachelorette New Zealand. You can shop their look online or in store now.

Suppose zillions watch that program so must be good for Hallensteins

I don’t watch it

[peat]

Wow - We suited up all 22 guys on TVNZ 2’s The Bachelorette New Zealand. You can shop their look online or in store now.

Suppose zillions watch that program so must be good for Hallensteins

I don’t watch it

with $199 suits? ;+ ) so $4k ?

cheap I guess.

[winner69]

So HLG is cyclical after all ....and on way down from high of $6.30 odd

Bottom $3.50 maybe (a cyclical basis)

Wonder what the divie will be when it gets down that low?

[peat]

So HLG is cyclical after all ....and on way down from high of $6.30 odd

Bottom $3.50 maybe (a cyclical basis)

Wonder what the divie will be when it gets down that low?

High was 6.48 and I halved at 6.41
been a 24c divi though since then tho.

until a few years ago HLG paid out more than it earned (sometimes) so it may not react as much as you think.

(and its on a very high yield at present)

[King1212]

High was 6.48 and I halved at 6.41
been a 24c divi though since then tho.

until a few years ago HLG paid out more than it earned (sometimes) so it may not react as much as you think.



(and its on a very high yield at present)


buyers depth looking ugly.....!!

[Beagle]

So HLG is cyclical after all ....and on way down from high of $6.30 odd

Bottom $3.50 maybe (a cyclical basis)

Wonder what the divie will be when it gets down that low?

I think that's pretty mischievous. The whole market is down today.

[winner69]

I think that's pretty mischievous. The whole market is down today.

...and retail in general expecting even more challenging times than they’ve had

Cyclical swings (in both demand and the share price) ...up and down ...and down now induced by likely impact of virus on both consumer demand and sharemarket sentiment

[macduffy]

I think that's pretty mischievous. The whole market is down today.

Exactly, Beagle. Comments on individual stocks are fairly meaningless today.

[peat]

buyers depth looking ugly.....!!
I think someone else mentioned depth figures being misleading a lot of the time
it comes and goes like a corona virus

[Beagle]

So HLG is cyclical after all ....and on way down from high of $6.30 odd

Bottom $3.50 maybe (a cyclical basis)

Wonder what the divie will be when it gets down that low?

I have translated this in case its not obvious to everyone already. "I have sold out and am trying to talk this one down so I can buy it back heaps cheaper" :p

[percy]

Retailers.....HLG down 3.3%....LOV [asx]down 3.4%...BGP down 0.3%......WHS down 3.7%.....KMD down 1.3%
Tourism..... AIR down 3%....THL down 5.4%..SKC..down 2.2%.SKO down 5.7% ATL [asx] down 3.6%

[macduffy]

Is this where we see how good - or not - those retailers' on-line offerings are?

[winner69]

Retailers.....HLG down 3.3%....LOV [asx]down 3.4%...BGP down 0.3%......WHS down 3.7%.....KMD down 1.3%
Tourism..... AIR down 3%....THL down 5.4%..SKC..down 2.2%.SKO down 5.7% ATL [asx] down 3.6%

Retail malaise - what market thinks

Over the last week:

HLG DOWN 3.8%
BGP DOWN 13.1%
WHS DOWN 7.9%
KMD DOWN 8.4%


......and to get worse?

[Beagle]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348092
KMD managing their challenges very well which bodes well for HLG. I would think a lot of HLG's suppliers are in Bangladesh.

[kiwidollabill]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348092
KMD managing their challenges very well which bodes well for HLG. I would think a lot of HLG's suppliers are in Bangladesh.

They have alot in China. Suppliers changes alot depending on new season styles

[MauroNZ]

They have alot in China. Suppliers changes alot depending on new season styles

At least that is what the label on the clothes says.

[winner69]

Aust Stats for December month

Clothing retail sector sales for month up 4% on pcp

Things going well in this sector in Oz

Add Glassons market share gains and it’s looking rosy over there

[Beagle]

Aust Stats for December month

Clothing retail sector sales for month up 4% on pcp

Things going well in this sector in Oz

Add Glassons market share gains and it’s looking rosy over there

Proves its hard to get the smell of smoke out of your clothes eh :) Poor buggars, its still going on and now they have that virus to add to their worst fires and drought in decades problems.

I'm almost tempted to wonder if its karma for the way they are treating Kiwi's over there...probably not though because its official, January the driest month in Auckland for the last 72 years and there's not been a drop of meaningful rain since so we're probably up to worst drought in 100 years now. I'm not sure what planet the climate change deniers are living on any more ? All good for HLG though, don't think they'll have any problems selling all their summer clothes and swimwear this year !!

[Beagle]

Supply chain concerns and more recently the currency moving back against HLG. Will people keep going to shopping malls if this virus spreads ? They have a good website and people can get whatever they like delivered so that's good.

Must be due for a profit guidance any day now. They're a pretty conservative and cautious lot so no doubt concerns will be clearly articulated.

Market doesn't seem to be concerned about this virus at all so maybe I need to get some happy pills and forget about any worries...Coutts, what happy pills are you taking mate :p

[Beagle]

Profit forecast and trading update was released on 13 February last year.
I am expecting an update very shortly which will hopefully give us an insight into whether this new virus might pose a risk from a supply chain perspective.
As well as supply chain concerns I am a little more cautious with this one as I believe if this virus spreads badly people will stop going to shopping malls and make do with the clothes they have already. Sourcing new clothes could be the least of people's problems...
Currency is not as favourable as it was a few weeks back either.

[winner69]

Profit forecast and trading update was released on 13 February last year.
I am expecting an update very shortly which will hopefully give us an insight into whether this new virus might pose a risk from a supply chain perspective.
As well as supply chain concerns I am a little more cautious with this one as I believe if this virus spreads badly people will stop going to shopping malls and make do with the clothes they have already. Sourcing new clothes could be the least of people's problems...

code for beagle has sold already ;):t_up::p

[BlackPeter]

Profit forecast and trading update was released on 13 February last year.
I am expecting an update very shortly which will hopefully give us an insight into whether this new virus might pose a risk from a supply chain perspective.
As well as supply chain concerns I am a little more cautious with this one as I believe if this virus spreads badly people will stop going to shopping malls and make do with the clothes they have already. Sourcing new clothes could be the least of people's problems...
Currency is not as favourable as it was a few weeks back either.

Considering the old adage "there are no problems, just opportunities" am I wondering whether HLG is looking into this newly created exciting market?

I hear face masks as well as one off protective plastic overalls are currently in huge demand ... and from what I see in the news, both of these items could well do with some fashionable improvements. Isn't this where HLG is great at? Great design at reasonable prices ... and hey, they could sell all this gear over the internet.

Plenty of room for growth ... and if this virus runs out I am sure somebody can engineer a new one ;):

[Beagle]

code for beagle has sold already ;):t_up::p


Considering the old adage "there are no problems, just opportunities" am I wondering whether HLG is looking into this newly created exciting market?

I hear face masks as well as one off protective plastic overalls are currently in huge demand ... and from what I see in the news, both of these items could well do with some fashionable improvements. Isn't this where HLG is great at? Great design at reasonable prices ... and hey, they could sell all this gear over the internet.

Plenty of room for growth ... and if this virus runs out I am sure somebody can engineer a new one ;):

:lol: :lol: NO worries, Coutts will along shortly to assure us everything is okay.

[couta1]

:lol: :lol: NO worries, Coutts will along shortly to assure us everything is okay. Yes it is and the sun/moon and other planets are still in the sky. PS-I dont see much change to the top 20 holder list of which I am a member.

[Beagle]

Yes it is and the sun/moon and other planets are still in the sky. PS-I dont see much change to the top 20 holder list of which I am a member.

I've got it mate ! HLG could start a new sideline in selling whatever happy pills you're taking as well as face masks, full hazmat suits, gloves and so on and then everything would be super fantastic and we wouldn't have a care in the world :p

[winner69]

Card sales for apparel sector in NZ for Jan month down 1.7% on last year and Been weakish for the last few months.

No worries though - HLG haven’t grown NZ sales for a while and all the good news comes out of Australia

[winner69]

JB Hi Fi doing well in OZ in spite of stories of retail gloom and etail acopolyse and other sensational stuff in the media

Good article on them in SMH

https://www.smh.com.au/national/how-jb-hi-fi-gets-us-to-part-with-our-cash-when-other-retailers-can-t-20200214-p540y0.html

Just like Glassons
What that indicates is, despite the headwinds, retailers that have a good offer, competitive prices and high standards of customer service are being rewarded despite the challenges in the sector. Sure, headline-catching stunts can be entertaining, but more often than not just getting the basics right is all consumers need.

[Beagle]

Late in giving us a forecast and trading update for the first half. Probably choosing their words for the narrative very carefully this weekend and we'll get that update tomorrow morning. Very good operators HLG but headwinds from Australian drought, then bushfires, now this new virus and possible supply chain issues as well as currency a bit softer and to cap it all off a huge increase in the minimum wage just around the corner on 1 April 2020, certainly makes life challenging for them.

Disc: I have reduced but still have a modest holding.

[winner69]

Late in giving us a forecast and trading update for the first half. Probably choosing their words for the narrative very carefully this weekend and we'll get that update tomorrow morning. Very good operators HLG but headwinds from Australian drought, then bushfires, now this new virus and possible supply chain issues as well as currency a bit softer and to cap it all off a huge increase in the minimum wage just around the corner on 1 April 2020, certainly makes life challenging for them.

Disc: I have reduced but still have a modest holding...

Jeez ......more headwinds than Synlait ....but probably not as many as AIR

PANIC tomorrow or whenever and BP will be proved right ...it is a cyclical after all.

Fy19 worried me in that Glassons AU didn't increase profit even though things were in their favour ....this year headwinds ...hmmm

[Beagle]

No panic mate. Just a very good company with excellent management, with no debt and class leading stock turn detailing how they are going to deal with challenges.
I would think the vast majority of their stock procurement is from Bangladesh so supply chain issues will be quite modest. Australian drought and bushfire situation has considerably improved in very recent times, however the long term prognosis could be considered to be diminished. https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/world/the-end-of-australia-as-we-know-it/ar-BB1037fR?ocid=spartanntp Climate change to make Australia summers a season full or dread ?
Interestingly for climate change deniers, not just the drought in Australia, today the Auckland region had its 41st day of drought conditions, the longest ever on record.
I doubt HLG will have any difficulty selling out this summers stock !

That said, Synlait and AIR's problems are in a completely different league, in my opinion.

[winner69]

Hey beagle ...no announcement from HLG as usual that their ‘balance sheet remains strong’

What’s up

[trader_jackson]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525

Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain

[freddagg]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525

Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain

The only companies with a certain future are in liquidation

[BlackPeter]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525

Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain

Jeez - at the December update revenue increase was still +7.1% and now after Christmas they are delivering only +5.6%. NPAT (unaudited so far) dropping by 3.1% compared to last year.


Sounds like Christmas was not so hot after all ... told you it is a cyclical company :);

[jonu]

The only companies with a certain future are in liquidation

Classic! :t_up:

[winner69]

Phew, I was getting worried but now relieved I know that “The balance sheet for the Group remains strong”

[Beagle]

Adjusting for IFRS16 on leasing, profit is unchanged on turnover up 5.7%, (up 6.7%) as at the trading update at the annual meeting in December 2019.
I think in the context of the weaker currency and unprecedented drought and bushfires in Australia the sales and profit result is more than satisfactory.
Balance sheet remains strong as usual.

Residual concerns.

1. Supply chain issues. Its a shame the company did not provide more colour around this as the market will speculate as to the seriousness or otherwise of that issue.
2. Will people shop as much if the virus spreads, (acknowledge they have an excellent online platform but a lot of people like to try clothes on before they buy them)
3. Significant increase in minimum wage in N.Z. with effect from 1 April 2020.

Thoughts:-
The market as a whole, (and certainly not just limited to the NZX) appears almost unfazed by the virus). Rightly or wrongly in the context of how the markets themselves are reacting, (or more correctly not reacting), then the share price seems fair and reasonable. On the other hand if this virus gets out of control its clear the company will be affected, but then so too will many other companies on the NZX that haven't adjusted downwards to reflect this actual or perceived new risk.

For me, I am pleased I have been proactive and taken some money off the table. Its remains a very well managed company that's trading well in challenging conditions.

[percy]

Its remains a very well managed company that's trading well in challenging conditions.

Agree.....................................

[winner69]

I take the $0.9m property gain is not included in H1 profit guidance

[Snow Leopard]

Phew, I was getting worried but now relieved I know that “The balance sheet for the Group remains strong”

The old copy and paste year after year after year.

But do you remember when it was
"with stock levels under control at historical levels"
as opposed to this new fangled
"and stock levels continue to be well controlled" ?

[couta1]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/348525

Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain Stick to your ARV instead of scaremongering over this part of the woods. PS-Happy top 20 holder.

[Snow Leopard]

Stick to your ARV instead of scaremongering over this part of the woods. PS-Happy top 20 holder.

The psychology behind posts such as this is very interesting.;)

[Beagle]

I take the $0.9m property gain is not included in H1 profit guidance

I inferred that although its not crystal clear. Leaving that and the supply chain issue a little opaque is not especially helpful.

How hard for instance would it to have been to say most of our product comes out of Bangladesh or somewhere else apart from China and give the market some frame of reference around supply chain issues ? Market dislikes uncertainty so in the absence of more clarity the shares could drift a bit lower :(

Maybe one of the top 20 shareholders could do some hard yards research and give the company a call and ask for some more clarity ?

[couta1]

The only companies with a certain future are in liquidation Haha so true and look how many iconic clothing companies have gone under over the last 3 yrs yet HLG keeps on trucking.

[peat]

doesn't sound too bad at all
probably result will be good enough to maintain dividend?

[couta1]

doesn't sound too bad at all
probably result will be good enough to maintain dividend? Yep 20c fully imputed coming up I reckon but even at 18c I'd be happy.

[winner69]

All the recent stuff I have from Hallensteins is made in China -- that's what the label says anyway

They keep telling me 'You are awesome' ….. and buy more with this special discount because you are awesome

[Baa_Baa]

The psychology behind posts such as this is very interesting.;)

I suppose when you have over a million dollars invested in one company, it's understandable maybe that one might be a bit sensitive to negativity?

[percy]

All the recent stuff I have from Hallensteins is made in China -- that's what the label says anyway

They keep telling me 'You are awesome' ….. and buy more with this special discount because you are awesome

They must read Sharetrader and note we think you are awesome............lol.

[Beagle]

Just noticed the shares broke down through the 100 day MA at $6.05 a week or two back. (Note to self, must keep a closer eye on TA)
Not a good sign.

[couta1]

Just noticed the shares broke down through the 100 day MA at $6.05 a week or two back. (Note to self, must keep a closer eye on TA)
Not a good sign. Just sell them mate, you know you want to. Lol

[Beagle]

All the recent stuff I have from Hallensteins is made in China -- that's what the label says anyway

They keep telling me 'You are awesome' ….. and buy more with this special discount because you are awesome

That's a worry too. Might have to do some ground work and have a good look through the local Hallensteins store and see for myself.

Don't want too Coutts as I like dividends like they pay out but I am starting to wonder if they are sustainable at last year's level ? Supply chain issues ?
Probably less risky than a lot of other retailers because HLG management are quick and nimble and will procure stock elsewhere.

Probably nothing to worry about eh Coutts...please send me some of those happy pills mate.

[couta1]

That's a worry too. Might have to do some ground work and have a good look through the local Hallensteins store and see for myself.

Don't want too Coutts as I like dividends like they pay out but I am starting to wonder if they are sustainable at last year's level ? Supply chain issues ?
Probably less risky than a lot of other retailers because HLG management are quick and nimble and will procure stock elsewhere.

Probably nothing to worry about eh Coutts...please send me some of those happy pills mate. Just did an inventory on my HLG wardrobe and looks like an even split between China and Bangladesh, I opened one of my wife's wardrobes to have a look but put it in the too hard basket at this stage as I cant be bothered looking through 3 wardrobes absolutely stacked with clothes.

[trader_jackson]

The psychology behind posts such as this is very interesting.;)

Geez I didn't even mention ARV on this thread and still got told off... I suppose some people can't say anything (no matter how factual and true it is) without promptly being personally attacked.
It seems objectivity goes out the window when things aren't so rosy.

[couta1]

Geez I didn't even talk about ARV on this thread and still got told off.

I suppose some people can't say anything (no matter how factual and true it is) without promptly being personally attacked.
If only we were all so objective as sum others. Not a personal attack at all tj just your post was so random and you probably wouldn't like a random one like that put up on the ARV thread from the likes of myself.

[Beagle]

Geez I didn't even mention ARV on this thread and still got told off... I suppose some people can't say anything (no matter how factual and true it is) without promptly being personally attacked.
It seems objectivity goes out the window when things aren't so rosy.

Probably didn't help that you overlooked that the reason the profit declined slightly was purely due to changes to IFRS 16, accounting for leases. This is an accounting change only and profit outlook is not down when you account for this change. Anyway...lets all have a nice cup of calming herbal tea with our lunch and chill out :)

[trader_jackson]

Not a personal attack at all tj just your post was so random and you probably wouldn't like a random one like that put up on the ARV thread from the likes of myself.

I wouldn't mind at all, I love it when someone (who may or may not agree with me) posts on AFT or ARV etcs threads... especially if it was indeed true so please, do go ahead.

Reality is, my words ring true (and Mr Market agrees - with the share price down over 2% so far today): Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain

And that is true Beagle, but still not a great result (and outlook) in terms of growth, contrasting to previous years.

[percy]

Just did an inventory on my HLG wardrobe and looks like an even split between China and Bangladesh, I opened one of my wife's wardrobes to have a look but put it in the too hard basket at this stage as I cant be bothered looking through 3 wardrobes absolutely stacked with clothes.

Might pay to find out which store your wife brought all her clothes from.?
If it is Glassons, you are "well positioned."

[couta1]

I wouldn't mind at all, I love it when someone (who may or may not agree with me) posts on AFT or ARV etcs threads... especially if it was indeed true so please, do go ahead.

Reality is, my words ring true (and Mr Market agrees - with the share price down over 2% so far today): Not great... profit going backwards and future uncertain

And that is true Beagle, but still not a great result (and outlook) in terms of growth, contrasting to previous years. ARV is the only listed retirement sector stock I dont have an intimate knowledge of or in fact anything but basic knowledge of so I dont comment much about it. As you know very well Mr Market is a fickle beast so price rises and drops over the short term mean diddly squat but having said that I welcome any significant price drop with open arms as I'm always looking to buy more of these beauties at the right price.

[trader_jackson]

ARV is the only listed retirement sector stock I dont have an intimate knowledge of or in fact anything but basic knowledge of so I dont comment much about it. As you know very well Mr Market is a fickle beast so price rises and drops over the short term mean diddly squat but having said that I welcome any significant price drop with open arms as I'm always looking to buy more of these beauties at the right price.

Just because one does not post on a thread doesn't mean one is not looking at the company, perhaps for years and/or perhaps in far greater detail than you seem to automatically assume...HLG is down nearly 12% in the space of less than 3 months... given equity markets have gone up at least a few percent, this is quite the under performance, and I would argue far from a blip that is of no need to be concerned as you would allude to (a 17% under performance of NZX 50 from 3 December till today would certainly raise my eyebrows if I was a shareholder!)

I don't want to belt this out again, but I will: past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance, this may or may not apply to HLG

[couta1]

Just because one does not post on a thread doesn't mean one is not looking at the company, perhaps for years and/or perhaps in far greater detail than you seem to automatically assume...HLG is down nearly 12% in the space of less than 3 months... given equity markets have gone up at least a few percent, this is quite the under performance, and I would argue far from a blip that is of no need to be concerned as you would allude to (a 17% under performance of NZX 50 in less from 3 December till today would certainly raise my eyebrows if I was a shareholder!)

I don't want to belt this out again, but I will: past performance is not necessarily an indicator of future performance, this may or may not apply to HLG I think that calming cup of tea Beagle suggested would be good, this company has been around 147 yrs with an enviable record of high dividend payments, no debt and a clean balance sheet, I've put my money where my mouth is and are happy to add more to my substantial current holding should the opportunity arise.

[peat]

happy to add more to my substantial current holding should the opportunity arise.

it is getting there !

I reckon anything under 5.50 is worth nibbling at.

Edit: Bargain hunters in already
11031

[Beagle]

To be fair t.j. HLG went ex a 24 cent fully imputed divvy in December so shares are down 7% from the peak. That said, this one has tried to bust through $6.50 a couple of times and failed so maybe that is the peak for the foreseeable future ?

[winner69]

So H1 sales up $8m and profit remains same (or in real terms down $0,7m) ...hmmm

[Beagle]

Company was at pains to highlight the material currency difference of both the Kiwi and the Aussie dollars against the US dollar in its NZX releases in December 2019.

Never before have they highlighted how both currencies were materially weaker. In the context of that and the worst drought and bushfires ever in Australia I think its a highly credible result and it highlights just how cautious this companies statements are, when in reality they always seem to manage the challenges very well.

Autumn stock will probably already being in their warehouses so stock procurement not an issue for the coming season and easy enough for their buyers to redirect their buying activities to Bangladesh for the forthcoming Winter season buying program. Very few concerns about supply chain issues, as I think they can adapt quite easily so we can all go back to sleep.

[dreamcatcher]

Let's all hope nobody sneezed on clothes or cartons before shipping..................

[peat]

Let's all hope nobody sneezed on clothes or cartons before shipping..................


this is pretty funny , right the way through...



https://youtu.be/wMNpjKMPqsU

[winner69]

Late in giving us a forecast and trading update for the first half. Probably choosing their words for the narrative very carefully this weekend and we'll get that update tomorrow morning. Very good operators HLG but headwinds from Australian drought, then bushfires, now this new virus and possible supply chain issues as well as currency a bit softer and to cap it all off a huge increase in the minimum wage just around the corner on 1 April 2020, certainly makes life challenging for them.

Disc: I have reduced but still have a modest holding.

No ..weekends are for rest and the cutting and pasting and changing the date and putting new numbers in was done Friday

[Beagle]

Agree...not much thought went into that narrative.

[couta1]

Lol who's the very hopeful punter that wants 5 shares at $2.10? PS-Looking oversold now.

[clearasmud]

Someone wants out

[couta1]

Someone wants out That's good because I want to be more in.

[Davexl]

That's good because I want to be more in.

Are you tempted around $5.45 Couta as I think Peat was, or do you think it could fall further?

Depth looks a bit poor until $5.40 and then $5.31 to get volume...

[couta1]

Are you tempted around $5.45 Couta as I think Peat was, or do you think it could fall further?

Depth looks a bit poor until $5.40 and then $5.31 to get volume... Yep $5.40 or below and I'm adding.

[Davexl]

Yep $5.40 or below and I'm adding.

'Cept we still don't know about logistics difficulties yet, perhaps even more to price in?

[couta1]

'Cept we still don't know about logistics difficulties yet, perhaps even more to price in? I dont reckon, just their typical conservative narrative with scant details.

[Davexl]

Cheers Couta - the 27 Mar announcement seems a long way away, the uncertainty helps some of us anyway...

[dreamcatcher]

When I was in the game winter indent dates were Feb/April or you miss the bus. If China indents not arrived be a serious problem.

[couta1]

Yep $5.40 or below and I'm adding. Bingo.:cool:

[couta1]

Someone wants out Your right, seller of 35k shares at $5.39, wonder if that Aussie outfit is flicking more of theirs off. PS-He could line swipe the volume down to $5.30 to get rid of them.:cool:

[850man]

Your right, seller of 35k shares at $5.39, wonder if that Aussie outfit is flicking more of theirs off. PS-He could line swipe the volume down to $5.30 to get rid of them.:cool:

very keen, down to $5.37 now

[couta1]

very keen, down to $5.37 now $5.35 now and more behind, let this scrapper come to you.

[iceman]

very keen, down to $5.37 now

$ 5.35 now

[King1212]

Free fall!!!! Mayday.. mayday... mayday!

[couta1]

Free fall!!!! Mayday.. mayday... mayday! The scrapper will have a bottom line sell price, might have reached it but hopefully not.

[King1212]

Will see it back to $4 ish.

[couta1]

Will see it back to $4 ish. Possible but I doubt it, anyway my holding size has increased today. PS-There is a bot working the sell side.

[King1212]

Great work couta...keep buying to hold the SP... appreciate your work...

[winner69]

I need to apologise to Blackpeter ....HLG is a cyclical after all

Sub 4 bucks here we come.

[couta1]

I need to apologise to Blackpeter ....HLG is a cyclical after all

Sub 4 bucks here we come. Lol stop teasing me you little downramper.

[oldtech]

I nabbed some more today also ... if the SP gets anywhere near $4 I'm going to seriously look at what else I can sell to double down. Long term I love the divies on this one.

[dreamcatcher]

I nabbed some more today also ... if the SP gets anywhere near $4 I'm going to seriously look at what else I can sell to double down. Long term I love the divies on this one.

What about the Capital Loss for the $5 and $6 happy hour buyers. Divvies only if profit is sustainable end-of-the-day its just another Clothing Retailer..........

[couta1]

What about the Capital Loss for the $5 and $6 happy hour buyers. Divvies only if profit is sustainable end-of-the-day its just another Clothing Retailer.......... Although it has out survived all comers.

[44wishlists]

When China can build a hospital in a week, I don't think it will take that much longer to make a pair of jeans, and get it shipped to NZ.

Disc. Bought a handful today. And in line for more.

[Jay]

Disc. Bought a handful today. And in line for more.

Jeans or shares - maybe both :)

[bull....]

hlg have no clothes too sell soon.

[couta1]

hlg have no clothes too sell soon. The bull must be getting bored to turn up over here with his downramping.

[bull....]

The bull must be getting bored to turn up over here with his downramping.

worst case senario of course if supply chains shut down.

[couta1]

Looking seriously oversold now on the technicals.

[Beagle]

Company was at pains to highlight the material currency difference of both the Kiwi and the Aussie dollars against the US dollar in its NZX releases in December 2019.

Never before have they highlighted how both currencies were materially weaker. In the context of that and the worst drought and bushfires ever in Australia I think its a highly credible result and it highlights just how cautious this companies statements are, when in reality they always seem to manage the challenges very well.

Autumn stock will probably already being in their warehouses so stock procurement not an issue for the coming season and easy enough for their buyers to redirect their buying activities to Bangladesh for the forthcoming Winter season buying program. Very few concerns about supply chain issues, as I think they can adapt quite easily so we can all go back to sleep.

Yawn :sleep:

[couta1]

Yawn :sleep: Hope your not so sleepy your not buying Beagle?

[Beagle]

Hope your not so sleepy your not buying Beagle?

:sleep: :sleep: Long way to go until 27 March my friend :sleep: :sleep:

[winner69]

Yawn :sleep:

but dreamcatcher said - When I was in the game winter indent dates were Feb/April or you miss the bus. If China indents not arrived be a serious problem.

Maybe not arrived yet

[kiwidollabill]

I'm a fan of the mgmt of HLG but this is a situation where there exceptionally good 'just in time' stock management is going to come back to bite. Hearing more info from commercial connections about how bad China really is and what the flow on effect is going to be. Basically the dock/factory workers just arent going to be there for some time yet (they are predominantly from the regions) and retailers either have stock stuck on wharves or either are going to be in a serious backlog.

At a top level 'how bad is it going to be', the 2nd largest economy in the world is broadly going to stop working for ~3 months...

[winner69]

all the gloom and dismay today without actually checking the price I thought it must have gone down to about 550 or something

Holy crap -just had a look - its in the 520's

[kiwidollabill]

Also, they cant just shift supply to Bangladesh.... 1) EVERYONE will be trying to do that and 2) BNG textile industry doesnt have the technical expertise and variety in capability in certain areas that China does. Plus logistics out of BNG can be a pretty big hassle (port facilities are already pretty stretched).

[winner69]

Hallensteins must have plenty of new season tees ...imploring me to buy 2 for 30 bucks

2 tees or 6 shares ...hmmm