HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[BlackPeter]

Just an observation: MA 400 is at $5.31. Will it hold? Last time it fall through that was December 2018 ... and price went down to something like $4.

Just saying.

[850man]

So... considering we're 2 months into this Corona virus thing and we all know HLG have this fantastic just in time supply line from China ... surely HLG are not sitting on their hands (which they should now not be doing cos of what we now know about transmitting the virus) and have already taken steps to assure supply from China or somewhere else. What would be great is if they can go that extra step of giving their shareholders reassurance of that rather than leaving us all to wonder or assume.... or sh*t our pants as we watch the SP decline 10% in 5 days!!

[couta1]

Keep up all the negativity guys I'm loving it. PS-Reckon I have moved up a spot on the top 20 holder list today.

[BlackPeter]

Keep up all the negativity guys I'm loving it. PS-Reckon I have moved up a spot on the top 20 holder list today.

Who is negative? I just made an observation ...

[couta1]

Who is negative? I just made an observation ... Was a bit of a tongue in cheek comment and wasn't aimed at you specifically, anyway I've said too much already so I'll just stick to buying shares.

[Beagle]

So... considering we're 2 months into this Corona virus thing and we all know HLG have this fantastic just in time supply line from China ... surely HLG are not sitting on their hands (which they should now not be doing cos of what we now know about transmitting the virus) and have already taken steps to assure supply from China or somewhere else. What would be great is if they can go that extra step of giving their shareholders reassurance of that rather than leaving us all to wonder or assume.... or sh*t our pants as we watch the SP decline 10% in 5 days!!

Yeah, they couldn't cut and paste anything from last years announcement about the Corona virus so they just came up with a brief sentence that ostensibly makes it look like they're a possum staring into the headlights. "Brilliant".

[percy]

Guess you will be renting some HLG shares from Couta1 and shorting them.?

[850man]

Yeah, they couldn't cut and paste anything from last years announcement about the Corona virus so they just came up with a brief sentence that ostensibly makes it look like they're a possum staring into the headlights. "Brilliant".

Perhaps someone on this thread with top 20 holder clout could ask HLG the $32 million question? :confused:

[Beagle]

Guess you will be renting some HLG shares from Couta1 and shorting them.?

Yeah...NAH. Most of the damage has been done already in my opinion.


Perhaps someone on this thread with top 20 holder clout could ask HLG the $32 million question? :confused:

Rumour has it he has and is still waiting to hear back from them. Don't suppose anyone has looked at the exchange rate lately. Struggling to hold 63 cents...that's not helpful.

[winner69]

Jeez David Jones going to close heaps of stores ..yesterday read an iconic outfit been in biz 50 years gone broke and 50 stores at risk and an outfit today Collete or something going to close 33 stores

It’s retail catastrophe over the Tasman

Glassons AU didn’t grow profits last year and this year looking real glum

Will they join the long list of NZ companies who regretted trying their luck over the Tasman

[King1212]

Soon..couta got no money left...after buying all the shares to support the sp

[macduffy]

Soon..couta got no money left...after buying all the shares to support the sp

At which point I'll step up to the plate!

:cool:

[Biscuit]

Jeez David Jones going to close heaps of stores ..yesterday read an iconic outfit been in biz 50 years gone broke and 50 stores at risk and an outfit today Collete or something going to close 33 stores

It’s retail catastrophe over the Tasman

Glassons AU didn’t grow profits last year and this year looking real glum

Will they join the long list of NZ companies who regretted trying their luck over the Tasman

Shaking out the competition will only be a good thing for HLG. They are here for the long, long term. 50 years nothing.

[Beagle]

Been looking at the chart which looks very ugly. Unfortunately this company has pretty recent form for dropping a whole $1.50 in less than a month. Check out the share price action in December 2018 ! 11049

$1.50 fall this time from recently formed (looks like a head and shoulders pattern in last six months) right shoulder at $6.00 could see it head down toward $4.50 :eek2:

From a TA point of view a test of long term support at $4 is even possible :eek2: :eek2:

[winner69]

Been looking at the chart which looks very ugly. Unfortunately this company has pretty recent form for dropping a whole $1.50 in less than a month. Check out the share price action in December 2018 ! 11049

$1.50 fall this time from recently formed (looks like a head and shoulders pattern in last six months) right shoulder at $6.00 could see it head down toward $4.50 :eek2:

From a TA point of view a test of long term support at $4 is even possible :eek2: :eek2:

Isn’t that what cyclicals do?

[couta1]

Isn’t that what cyclicals do? If that's the case the Air sp should be under $2 right now given the virus thingy and all that, so why isnt it?

[Leftfield]

Interesting ABC article on retail closures here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/accessories-chain-colette-by-colette-hayman-to-close-33-stores/11988298)

Take care holders (just saying!)

[RTM]

If that's the case the Air sp should be under $2 right now given the virus thingy and all that, so why isnt it?

Give it time.

[Baa_Baa]

Isn’t that what cyclicals do?

50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
11051
Daily chart, log scale

Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here (https://invst.ly/pxl9h)

[winner69]

50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
11051
Daily chart, log scale

Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here (https://invst.ly/pxl9h)

So cool BaaBaa ...I love Fibonacci ...one of few TA things that mimic nature ...and we know about Nature’s Laws eh

Talking of Fibonacci ....put a heap on him Otaki Race 2 today at 1.17pm. ..he’s got great form like winning his last 2 races ...and baabaa’s onen bet ...the stars are aligned.

[Davexl]

Been looking at the chart which looks very ugly. Unfortunately this company has pretty recent form for dropping a whole $1.50 in less than a month. Check out the share price action in December 2018 ! 11049

$1.50 fall this time from recently formed (looks like a head and shoulders pattern in last six months) right shoulder at $6.00 could see it head down toward $4.50 :eek2:

From a TA point of view a test of long term support at $4 is even possible :eek2: :eek2:

Interesting, my rudimentary TA now targets a buying support level around $4.80 (drawing a horizontal line which closes 2 triangle formations at that level), but TA should never be used in isolation of course.

eg. I have closed out my large hedging position on the ASX 200 after resistance broken thru at 7145 from Chinese stimulous announcement (expectation & actual responses) plus good US earnings etc. Will try again when the sh** hits the fan in US also and see whether Resistance turns into Support on Monday with ASX 200 as the irrational exhuberance rolls on...The jury is out for me on just how reliable TA is as a tool in general, except in Macro situations I would hope.

[couta1]

Interesting ABC article on retail closures here. (https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-21/accessories-chain-colette-by-colette-hayman-to-close-33-stores/11988298)

Take care holders (just saying!) Well that's the thing, at least a half a dozen iconic retailers have shut down over the last couple of years yet HLG has proven its resilence and those punters then have to buy elsewhere so good for HLG. The other factor is I wonder how many of those that have gone under have no debt like HLG rather than there just wasn't enough profit in the operation.

[Baa_Baa]

Isn’t that what cyclicals do?

Anatomy of a cyclical.



HLG Cyclical - Weekly Bars - 20 Years Data


















Bars (weeks between)








Average






High to High

332


352














342

Weeks


Low to Low

464


386














425

Weeks


L to H : H to L

344


118


215


171


179


205

Weeks





























































171

Average weeks L:H H:L13 years



























3.28

Average YearsL:H H:L



11052

[Beagle]

50% fib retrace already from June19 low $4.00 to Dec 19 high $6.48. DCB or canny buyers?
11051
Daily chart, log scale

Bloody awful screen resolution with uploaded pictures, not sure what's going on. A high resolution chart is here (https://invst.ly/pxl9h)

Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold.

[BlackPeter]

Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold.

... and both of them might be right :);

[winner69]

What’s HLG record ....average divie 30 cents over the last 30 years or something .....or was it better than that?

[couta1]

What’s HLG record ....average divie 30 cents over the last 30 years or something .....or was it better than that? Yep 30.5 cents fully imputed.

[couta1]

Thanks for posting. GET OUT volumes noted. I guess you see what you want to see in these things. I know Coutts sees the RSI indicator as deeply oversold. Lol the only GET OUT for me is getting out more money to buy more and chase it down.

[Davexl]

Lol the only GET OUT for me is getting out more money to buy more and chase it down.

See you around $4.80...

[Leftfield]

Well that's the thing, at least a half a dozen iconic retailers have shut down over the last couple of years yet HLG has proven its resilence and those punters then have to buy elsewhere so good for HLG. The other factor is I wonder how many of those that have gone under have no debt like HLG rather than there just wasn't enough profit in the operation.

I agree, HLG's strong balance sheet is in its favour. In addition HLG may well be in a position to negotiate better lease/rent deals as other retailers struggle, and let's not forget HLG's growing on-line business. So it's not 'all over rover' for HLG, just warning signals being fired.

Baa Baa's above post on cyclical trends another consideration/warning IMHO.

(Disc - not holding. Watching with interest.)

[Beagle]

... and both of them might be right :);

Best to choose your favourite TA indicator and stick with it. Keeps life nice and simple. For me that's the 100 day MA.

[allfromacell]

Went to Glassons today and everything I checked was made in China, hopefully the supply chain isn't too badly disrupted.

[couta1]

Went to Glassons today and everything I checked was made in China, hopefully the supply chain isn't too badly disrupted. They source their products from China/India and Bangladesh and currently have a good inventory of product on board.

[winner69]

They source their products from China/India and Bangladesh and currently have a good inventory of product on board.

Amazing many punters just don’t get what ‘...stock levels continue to be well controlled’ mean eh Couts

But spose they think the worse about everything .....so there are going to be empty stores soon ...yeah right

[850man]

Hyperbolic SP drop - >3% so far today and >10% in the last week! Trying to feel good about holding these right now

[couta1]

Hyperbolic SP drop - >3% so far today and >10% in the last week! Trying to feel good about holding these right now I'm feeling good thinking about my next humongous divvy. PS-Still buying.

[bull....]

you need to start reading charts . looking at a 10 yr chart shows it has sold off every time it has got around $6 and quite savagely. maybe supply chain issues are the reason this time or possibly the impact on retail spending the virus will have. do they do uber?

[couta1]

you need to start reading charts . looking at a 10 yr chart shows it has sold off every time it has got around $6 and quite savagely. maybe supply chain issues are the reason this time or possibly the impact on retail spending the virus will have. do they do uber? I'm a top 20 long term holder bull, the charts are just a pretty picture of a lovely mountain range to me as far as this stock is concerned, this is my only no touch holding along with PAZ. PS-I am actually quite good at reading charts.

[BlackPeter]

you need to start reading charts . looking at a 10 yr chart shows it has sold off every time it has got around $6 and quite savagely. maybe supply chain issues are the reason this time or possibly the impact on retail spending the virus will have. do they do uber?

Must be the second time I agree with you in less than a week :) ... wondering whether there might be a pattern?;

But yes, looking at the HLG chart the old saying "never try to catch a falling knife" springs to mind ...

[winner69]

Hyperbolic SP drop - >3% so far today and >10% in the last week! Trying to feel good about holding these right now

Hyperbolic ...nice word ..but what word will you be using when share price is 450

[couta1]

Hyperbolic ...nice word ..but what word will you be using when share price is 450 Elation.:cool:

[winner69]

Elation.:cool:

That be a good place to be ....450 with 30 cent plus divie for 30 years

[bull....]

That be a good place to be ....450 with 30 cent plus divie for 30 years

$3 would be even better with a 30c div ( bottom of long term range ) anyway what country does there slave labour?

[couta1]

$3 would be even better with a 30c div ( bottom of long term range ) anyway what country does there slave labour? Lol your such a Troll.

[Beagle]

Virus concerns in this market = sell first, ask questions later.

[couta1]

Virus concerns in this market = sell first, ask questions later. You have just defined fear. PS-Feel the fear but do it anyway.

[King1212]

Dang....couta came to rescue..the SP keep up to level. Well done ..couta ..we all are counting on u

[couta1]

Dang....couta came to rescue..the SP keep up to level. Well done ..couta ..we all are counting on u Only 24k shares of total are mine but I guess it helped.:cool:

[Beagle]

You have just defined fear. PS-Feel the fear but do it anyway.

Swimming against an outgoing tide is neither fun nor a way to make progress. I sold very shortly after HLG crossed down through the 100 day moving average line.
Its unlikely I will buy back in until at earliest, it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average line. Fundamental's are one thing, technical analysis another.
The most money is to be made when TA and FA are in sync...I refer to this as an incoming tide and even those doing dog paddle can make great progress in such conditions :)

[couta1]

Swimming against an outgoing tide is neither fun nor a way to make progress. I sold very shortly after HLG crossed down through the 100 day moving average line.
Its unlikely I will buy back in until at earliest, it breaks back up through the 30 day moving average line. Fundamental's are one thing, technical analysis another.
The most money is to be made when TA and FA are in sync...I refer to this as an incoming tide and even those doing dog paddle can make great progress in such conditions :) As long as you hug the VWAP chasing it down or close to it then you are making progress. PS-Im a strong swimmer.

[Beagle]

As long as you hug the VWAP or close to it then you are making progress. PS-Im a strong swimmer.

I swim like I ski, cautiously and slowly, much more mass to drag through the water lol
I'll be back when this has been de-risked properly.

[King1212]

Beagle...he is still in delusion.....he will wake up one day .....market is a signalling huge recession...NZ economy bis too depending on China...n now china is struggling with pandemic.

He will wake up when September comes...

[Beagle]

Beagle...he is still in delusion.....he will wake up one day .....market is a signalling huge recession...NZ economy bis too depending on China...n now china is struggling with pandemic.

He will wake up when September comes...

Coutts and I are great mates and I love him but we have very different investment styles just like we have very different skiing styles. I am very cautious and think that if I ski too fast I might fall and break some bones. Coutts flies down the slopes at 100 miles an hour and thrives on the speed and risk. Risk energises and gives an adrenalin rush to some people and I accept that. Others manage risk in a prudent and proactive way. He'll never change his ski or investment style and neither will I.

[King1212]

Me and him are good mates too.....we both like money too... except I don't like losing investment capital...n he is on love so much with HGL

[couta1]

Me and him are good mates too.....we both like money too... except I don't like losing investment capital...n he is on love so much with HGL I think you mean HLG and I'm not in love so much but rather the divvies are now my main reliable income source since cutting my other work down to 1 day a week and trading income is erratic and cant be projected accurately.

[King1212]

My bad.sorry....yes totally understandable....

I do what u need to do... follow your gut feeling. I will be waiting for $4.50 to get in....

[Beagle]

This market is so ugly my strategy for anyone interested is not to have a preset price for reentry, (despite $4.50 looking like a good point or longer term support at $4.00).
At times like this I find it more useful to throw the fundamental analysis playbook out the window, (these are not normal times), and stick with technical analysis.
I will wait for the 30 day moving average to be broken back through to the upside and reestablish a half sized position and if it then goes on to break back up through the 100 day MA to the upside I would buy back the other half. I'll only get back in when this happens and not before regardless of how long this takes I am happy to sit on the sidelines.

Its a well managed company with no debt and I think this one is in as good a position as any to ride out the retail storm that might be coming but I am in capital preservation mode and happy to crystalize excellent gains in 2019 and earlier years of the bull run in my portfolio.

I'm not going to try and pick the bottom, I will let the market confirm the bottom is in and thereby greatly reduce my capital risk. The name of the game right now is capital preservation in my opinion.

[rooster]

UK based Primark have warned that they may face shortages in clothing later in the year as 40% of their clothes are sourced from China. They are currently scrambling to source product elsewhere in Asia. It would be disingenuous to assume HGL are not in the same boat with supply. Even if HGL manages to avoid delays and disruptions to their supply chain one would assume margins will be lower as other clothing retailers will be bidding higher costs to ensure their supply of goods outside of China. This combined with a lowering NZD/USD.

[kiwidollabill]

UK based Primark have warned that they may face shortages in clothing later in the year as 40% of their clothes are sourced from China. They are currently scrambling to source product elsewhere in Asia. It would be disingenuous to assume HGL are not in the same boat with supply. Even if HGL manages to avoid delays and disruptions to their supply chain one would assume margins will be lower as other clothing retailers will be bidding higher costs to ensure their supply of goods outside of China. This combined with a lowering NZD/USD.

Primark are alot more aware of who are manufacturing what in their supply chain and are well positioned to respond. HLG dont have too much of a clue and rely on alot of purchasing agents to procure. Chinas textile industry was already starting to do it tough, alot of places waiting in the wings to supply, IMHO there is diversity in textiles to survive the supply shock better than some other industries (but thats not saying it wont be tough....)

[couta1]

UK based Primark have warned that they may face shortages in clothing later in the year as 40% of their clothes are sourced from China. They are currently scrambling to source product elsewhere in Asia. It would be disingenuous to assume HGL are not in the same boat with supply. Even if HGL manages to avoid delays and disruptions to their supply chain one would assume margins will be lower as other clothing retailers will be bidding higher costs to ensure their supply of goods outside of China. This combined with a lowering NZD/USD. Its HLG by the way and a lot of negativity has and is already been/being priced in which may not eventuate at the end of the day.

[Snow Leopard]

Its HLG by the way and a lot of negativity has and is already been/being priced in which may not eventuate at the end of the day.

Although it may not eventuate it also may eventuate.
Much is possible though less is probable.
Expect the unexpected or be surprised, either is possible.
And much more besides.
Wine helps.

[kiwidollabill]

Although it may not eventuate it also may eventuate.
Much is possible though less is probable.
Expect the unexpected or be surprised, either is possible.
And much more besides.
Wine helps.

Considering they are good (almost too good) at turning over stock HLG are more exposed than others to supply chain disruption. I'm a fan of managemnt so will be looking for a good buy-in level...

[couta1]

Considering they are good (almost too good) at turning over stock HLG are more exposed than others to supply chain disruption. I'm a fan of managemnt so will be looking for a good buy-in level... Lol a good buy in level is staring you in the face.

[BlackPeter]

Lol a good buy in level is staring you in the face.

Well yes, there is a good buy in level (which may or may not be today), but there likely will be better buy in levels, and undoubtedly there will be at some stage the best buy in level, and I don't think the latter is today.

Might be sensible to wait for some indicators to fire ... and as well wait and see how the supply and demand side around the virus story unfolds. If this is a proper black swan event, than what we have seen today is nothing.

[couta1]

Well yes, there is a good buy in level (which may or may not be today), but there likely will be better buy in levels, and undoubtedly there will be at some stage the best buy in level, and I don't think the latter is today.

Might be sensible to wait for some indicators to fire ... and as well wait and see how the supply and demand side around the virus story unfolds. If this is a proper black swan event, than what we have seen today is nothing. Never have waited for indicators to fire barring when the car ones play up and aint about to start, besides the indicators are showing the stock as grossly oversold.

[Beagle]

Hey Coutts...if you make it into the top ten shareholders list does that mean you get a private showing of all the forthcoming fashion complete with sunning models strutting their stuff in swimwear and if so are you allowed to take a friend along :lol:

[couta1]

Hey Coutts...if you make it into the top ten shareholders list does that mean you get a private showing of all the forthcoming fashion complete with sunning models strutting their stuff in swimwear and if so are you allowed to take a friend along :lol: Too many big guns to make the top ten but surely the top 15 should be also given such privileges and if you promise to be a good dog then I'd be happy to take you along as a guide dog.:D

[winner69]

Too many big guns to make the top ten but surely the top 15 should be also given such privileges and if you promise to be a good dog then I'd be happy to take you along as a guide dog.:D

Suppose your mate Hickman (and his fellow big shareholders) not giving a stuff about recent catastrophic share price falls.

Difference between real long term investors and most on here who are really only traders

[couta1]

Suppose your mate Hickman (and his fellow big shareholders) not giving a stuff about recent catastrophic share price falls.

Difference between real long term investors and most on here who are really only traders He would be happy to keep collecting the nice big fat divvies on his and his families just over a million shares and go sailing, doubt he has even read this forum, follow the smart money aye.

[couta1]

Looks to have found its bottom, VWAP yesterday was $5.088.

[850man]

Looks to have found its bottom, VWAP yesterday was $5.088.

Still waiting to hear positive news on certainty of supply from China. Market drop as we follow the Dow on it's downward trend may also impact how much people spend on clothing in future. Likewise if Corona appears here or in Oz en-mass, won; tbe a lot of people shopping for clothes then

[couta1]

CEO resignation.

[JeremyALD]

CEO resignation.

Pushed out I wonder? Seems they aren't happy with the performance of Hallensteins at the moment, with Glassons being the clear star and vehicle for growth.

[couta1]

Pushed out I wonder? Seems they aren't happy with the performance of Hallensteins at the moment, with Glassons being the clear star and vehicle for growth. Seems that way as he finishes on Feb 28th.

[Biscuit]

CEO resignation.

reckon you'll see this under $5 today then

[couta1]

reckon you'll see this under $5 today then I hope so .:cool:

[couta1]

Just picked up another 12k shares in that trading halt, my avg buy price has now just sneaked over $4.

[Beagle]

Pushed out I wonder? Seems they aren't happy with the performance of Hallensteins at the moment, with Glassons being the clear star and vehicle for growth.

I agree it would seem he was pushed. Not leaving to go to another position is one clue. Another is it would be extremely unusual for a CEO to announce a resignation today and be gone by the end of the week. Normally there is a fairly lengthy notice period and the outgoing CEO often works with the incoming one to ensure a smooth transition.

[850man]

Seems that way as he finishes on Feb 28th.

Ms Hardlicka still looking for her next role?

[couta1]

I agree it would seem he was pushed. Not leaving to go to another position is one clue. Another is it would be extremely unusual for a CEO to announce a resignation today and be gone by the end of the week. Normally there is a fairly lengthy notice period and the outgoing CEO often works with the incoming one to ensure a smooth transition. Cleaning out a progress doorstop is good news. Lol

[couta1]

Ms Hardlicka still looking for her next role? No please that would be a reason for even me to sell.

[bull....]

more likely hallenstein bros not doing very good in AUS , retail in general in AUS is under severe pressure

[couta1]

more likely hallenstein bros not doing very good in AUS , retail in general in AUS is under severe pressure And how many Hallensteins stores do they have in Australia ? please complete this homework and come back with an answer.

[peat]

And how many Hallensteins stores do they have in Australia ? please complete this homework and come back with an answer.
haha that's a good retort
I guess couta read the annual report coz he wanted to see his name in print

I'm back to standard weighting on this now which doesn't mean I cant come back for more.
Rinse and repeat?

[couta1]

haha that's a good retort
I guess couta read the annual report coz he wanted to see his name in print

I'm back to standard weighting on this now which doesn't mean I cant come back for more.
Rinse and repeat? Yeah it had nothing to do with the glossy pictures whatsoever.:cool:

[44wishlists]

more likely hallenstein bros not doing very good in AUS , retail in general in AUS is under severe pressure

Hallenstein BROTHERS has been flat for a lengthy period of time. It's Glasson and their online business that driving the growth for HLG in the last couple years. So replacing the CEO for Hallenstein Brothers may not be a bad news overall. Think about the day when Hardlicka suddenly announced her resignation (or getting booted), and replacing by Babidge.

[bull....]

Hallenstein BROTHERS has been flat for a lengthy period of time. It's Glasson and their online business that driving the growth for HLG in the last couple years. So replacing the CEO for Hallenstein Brothers may not be a bad news overall. Think about the day when Hardlicka suddenly announced her resignation (or getting booted), and replacing by Babidge.

a2 price done nothing since hrdlicker left , anyway i should have said hlg australia business was in a rush . share price dont fall so much unless there issues some where in the business. my best guess is australia sales , heaps of aust retailers having issues and forecasting slower growth ahead.

[Beagle]

Are there any useful couta theorems on HLG share price?

Couta1's theorem with this one is "be a top ten shareholder"...what could possibly go wrong :)

[couta1]

Are there any useful couta theorems on HLG share price? Yeah dont buy any till I run out of money and stop buying(Which wont be long now) Beagle just told me that's his plan, cheeky hound.

[couta1]

Ok. Let me know when you stop propping up the price and we can take it from there. How do you rate the CEO? Yeah he was a pretty good dude and did the company proud and 10yrs is a good stint, I'm thinking he may not have wanted the extra pressure and committment to drive the Aussie side of the business going forward.

[Mr Slothbear]

The chairman Warren bell used to be on the board of ryman. I’ve heard him speak many times at their agm and was never once disappointed.

[couta1]

Thanks. How about ceo and board of mothership HLG? Its a good balanced board with plenty of retail and marketing experience, Mary Devine is just fine by me but some dont like her.

[couta1]

I also note that 4 of the 7 board members have substantial holdings in the company and the other 3 may also hold less than 50k shares but arnt included in the top 100 holders.

[winner69]

Hallenstein BROTHERS has been flat for a lengthy period of time. It's Glasson and their online business that driving the growth for HLG in the last couple years. So replacing the CEO for Hallenstein Brothers may not be a bad news overall. Think about the day when Hardlicka suddenly announced her resignation (or getting booted), and replacing by Babidge.

Hallensteins have been a disaster the last five years .... selling more / making less / losing share in NZ

Sales have grown from $80m in 2014 to $97m in 2019 primarily on growth in Australia ...but in 2019 sales were flat ...a sign of the future

In spite of that $17m increase in sales over 5 years they’re making less than they did in 2014. Last year was a total disaster with profits down $1.7m

CEO leaving suggests things aren’t improving and Hallensteins is still a drag on group growth

Maybe better off without him ...one thing if he’s not replaced we’ll save a few hundred thou.

[couta1]

Hallensteins have been a disaster the last five years .... selling more / making less / losing share in NZ

Sales have grown from $80m in 2014 to $97m in 2019 primarily on growth in Australia ...but in 2019 sales were flat ...a sign of the future

In spite of that $17m increase in sales over 5 years they’re making less than they did in 2014. Last year was a total disaster with profits down $1.7m

CEO leaving suggests things aren’t improving and Hallensteins is still a drag on group growth

Maybe better off without him ...one thing if he’s not replaced we’ll save a few hundred thou. Nice downramp there winner but you'll have to get in the queue for cheap shares.PS-The divvy has increased over the last couple of years.

[Beagle]

Ok. Let me know when you stop propping up the price and we can take it from there. How do you rate the CEO?

Best to leave it a month or two after he stops buying so it can find its real level :D

[winner69]

Nice downramp there winner but you'll have to get in the queue for cheap shares.PS-The divvy has increased over the last couple of years.

Just facts re Hallensteins (not Glassons) ...not been a great performer lately have they ....and a drag on group profits, esp n 2019 when they down 1.7m

[Beagle]

Just facts re Hallensteins (not Glassons) ...not been a great performer lately have they ....and a drag on group profits, esp n 2019 when they down 1.7m

Makes you wonder if the CEO simply ran out of idea's or has lost touch with what is cool fashion for men ? Mary Divine running the whole show now, should shareholders be worried ?

[couta1]

Just facts re Hallensteins (not Glassons) ...not been a great performer lately have they ....and a drag on group profits, esp n 2019 when they down 1.7m Yes good point, I need to take off the Group hat and glasses and put the mens only one on, perhaps I'll leave the rose tinted glasses on though.

[couta1]

Best to leave it a month or two after he stops buying so it can find its real level :D Lol only 24k shares out of a total of 137k are mine, are you secretly buying Beagle?

[bull....]

can you short this stock with cmc markets

[winner69]

Yes good point, I need to take off the Group hat and glasses and put the mens only one on, perhaps I'll leave the rose tinted glasses on though.

Even your rose tinted glasses would have noticed that if you took property gains out of the equation the operating divisions didn’t grow profits in 2019 ...and not going to this year

As long as divie isn’t cut we’ll be ok.

[couta1]

can you short this stock with cmc markets Pathetic attempt to stir and seek attention, you are not interested in this stock in a genuine way, go and be a pest somewhere else.

[Mr Slothbear]

Pathetic attempt to stir and seek attention, you are not interested in this stock in a genuine way, go and be a pest somewhere else.


i had to exercise the ignore button with that one a long time ago

[bull....]

it was a geniune question as i understand beagle shorts with cmc and i did own hlg at one time brought at $3 check the thread probably owned it before you

[King1212]

Come bull..leave these good people alone...

[44wishlists]

Glasson just launch their AW20 collection.

11064

[King1212]

Glasson just launch their AW20 collection.

11064

Dang...I don't mind to loose a my shares so long I can see all day...

[peat]

can you short this stock with cmc markets

no they only cover 40 NZ shares

https://imgur.com/8JCBOJf

[couta1]

no they only cover 40 NZ shares

https://imgur.com/8JCBOJf Fantastic we dont want manipulating game players over here.

[Gerald]

no they only cover 40 NZ shares

https://imgur.com/8JCBOJf

Not actually interested in shorting anything, but just for general interest what is the effective interest you pay CMC or through your broker?

[peat]

Not actually interested in shorting anything, but just for general interest what is the effective interest you pay CMC or through your broker?

1.8% p.a. for a short
so its sfa.

3.6% p.a. for a long.

[bull....]

no they only cover 40 NZ shares

https://imgur.com/8JCBOJf

thx for the info , so the decline not due to short selling , must be aussie store issue my guess

[couta1]

thx for the info , so the decline not due to short selling , must be aussie store issue my guess Well you keep guessing and I'll keep buying.

[winner69]

no they only cover 40 NZ shares

https://imgur.com/8JCBOJf

Summerset on list ...that’ll get beagle interested big time

[iceman]

From www.interest.co.nz today. Good news for HLG:

LOCAL ONLINE WINNING
January was a soft month for New Zealand’s online retail spending, with total spending down -1% on January last year, according to the BNZ/Marketview monitoring. The decline is driven by a large year-on-year drop in spending at offshore sites, which was down -12% on last January. Local online sales were up +7% on that basis. Online retail now accounts for 8% of all retail sales.

[thedrunkfish]

Well you keep guessing and I'll keep buying.

:eek2::t_up: Nearly spat the old morning coffee out.

I believe this is one of those opportunities that do not come around so often to purchase good stocks at cheap prices.

Good luck to all.

[BlackPeter]

:eek2::t_up: Nearly spat the old morning coffee out.

I believe this is one of those opportunities that do not come around so often to purchase good stocks at cheap prices.

Good luck to all.

Absolutely. I recon the discussion is just about whether next week (or the week / month / couple of months after that) might offer still better bargains than today ...

It won't be a closing down sale of the stock exchanges ... but for a time supply of stocks will be larger than demand for stocks. That's all.

[Beagle]

Absolutely. I recon the discussion is just about whether next week (or the week / month / couple of months after that) might offer still better bargains than today ...

It won't be a closing down sale of the stock exchanges ... but for a time supply of stocks will be larger than demand for stocks. That's all.

The central thesis of my current investment approach is that the market as a whole is highly likely to be materially lower than current level's in 2-3 months time.
How serious is the virus risk ? US 10 year Govt stock rate has collapsed to record ever lows. S&P 500, Nasdaq and DOW all moved from record ever level's to correction territory, (down 10% or more) at the greatest speed ever recorded, less than 10 trading sessions.

Very highly experienced doctor's on TV3 breakfast programme this morning admitting they have got it badly wrong saying the virus was not a material risk and now saying it could infect up to 1,000,000 people in N.Z.

Will people bother shopping for clothes in this sort of environment ? I don't think so. Its not just supply chain risks with HLG, its demand risk too. Take care folks.

Disc: No position.

[Biscuit]

The central thesis of my current investment approach is that the market as a whole is highly likely to be materially lower than current level's in 2-3 months time.
How serious is the virus risk ? US 10 year Govt stock rate has collapsed to record ever lows. S&P 500, Nasdaq and DOW all moved from record ever level's to correction territory, (down 10% or more) at the greatest speed ever recorded, less than 10 trading sessions.

Very highly experienced doctor's on TV3 breakfast programme this morning admitting they have got it badly wrong saying the virus was not a material risk and now saying it could infect up to 1,000,000 people in N.Z.

Will people bother shopping for clothes in this sort of environment ? I don't think so. Its not just supply chain risks with HLG, its demand risk too. Take care folks.

Disc: No position.

I suspect you are probably right.

[bull....]

i concur cheaper prices coming in store and on the stock exchange.

[winner69]

Gerry Harvey dont sell clothes but he worried about other things holsing sales back than the virus

Always pragmatic is Gerry --- don't worry right now - "Where [the coronavirus] ends up, who knows? It might fizzle out or it might become the next bubonic plague."

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/harvey-norman-profit-slips-as-coronavirus-clouds-outlook-20200227-p5450f.html

[bull....]

looking forward to rinse and repeat again $3 - $6 is the long term range

[Beagle]

Yeah this is ugly alright. Down from $6.48 at the start of December to $4.80, a drop of a whopping $1.68 = 26% decline in just 3 months.
Makes you wonder where the share price could go if the whole country has to go into a Chinese style lockdown for a few months doesn't it.

No worries though because now Couta1 is a top ten shareholder and sitting at the top table I think he going to hit up management for a private showing with highly attractive models of the latest skimpy fashions and I get to go along as his seeing eye guide dog...that's way better than a dividend :D

[couta1]

Yeah this is ugly alright. Down from $6.48 at the start of December to $4.80, a drop of a whopping $1.68 = 26% decline in just 3 months.
Makes you wonder where the share price could go if the whole country has to go into a Chinese style lockdown for a few months doesn't it.

No worries though because now Couta1 is a top ten shareholder and sitting at the top table I think he going to hit up management for a private showing with highly attractive models of the latest skimpy fashions and I get to go along as his seeing eye guide dog...that's way better than a dividend :D Lol do I really need to comment on this thread anymore now I'm swimming with the big fish, probably too much conflict of interest. PS-Not buying many more now as I want to be able to pull my average price down if things really turn to custard which has increased from $3.60 to $4.15 with all the buying of late.

[Biscuit]

.... I want to be able to pull my average price down if things really turn to custard which has increased from $3.60 to $4.15 with all the buying of late.

You are buying custard?

[couta1]

You are buying custard? Perhaps I should have said if things really turn pear shaped.PS-Im not buying pears but am quite fond of pears with custard.

[Biscuit]

Perhaps I should have said if things really turn pear shaped.PS-Im not buying pears but am quite fond of pears with custard.

haha, much better sentence construction :)

[dreamcatcher]

HGL SP could collapse back to LOW-$3 now that NZ has its second Covid-19 case with queues at supermarkets this morning with panicked public stocking up on food. People will not be interested in buying clothes that's the first to go from spending and probably fear backlash against Chinese made goods thinking that the clothing may contain virus.

There is nothing outstandingly special about HGL stock and similar to any other budget clothing outlet. People should realize clothing industry is very fickle and hard to maintain constant momentum unless you are opening stores but once opened difficult to hold sales. NZ dollar in the dumps, Aus may go into recession will not help already stretched books but suppose div could be reduced or stopped.

Low liquidity stocks easier to push up/down as tide turns............

DYOR

[couta1]

HGL SP could collapse back to LOW-$3 now that NZ has its second Covid-19 case with queues at supermarkets this morning with panicked public stocking up on food. People will not be interested in buying clothes that's the first to go from spending and probably fear backlash against Chinese made goods thinking that the clothing may contain virus.

There is nothing outstandingly special about HGL stock and similar to any other budget clothing outlet. People should realize clothing industry is very fickle and hard to maintain constant momentum unless you are opening stores but once opened difficult to hold sales. NZ dollar in the dumps, Aus may go into recession will not help already stretched books but suppose div could be reduced or stopped.

Low liquidity stocks easier to push up/down as tide turns............

DYOR Nice downramping/scaremongering post with lots of mights/maybes/could be's. Nothing outstandingly special yet it has been around 147yrs and has out survived all comers. DYOR, well obviously I have as I'm sure all of the other big holders have done, sure the price could go down due to as you say low liquidity yet it is and would be driven down in the main by rats and mice sellers. PS-When I get the next shareholder list I will put up how much selling is coming from the top 100 holders as opposed to buying.PPS-From 7/2-21/2 there was an increase of 55418 shares over sells in the top 100 holders.

[percy]

16% of HLG revenue is generated by their online sales.
This part of their business is growing more quickly than their stores.
Perhaps Corona Virus will see HLG's online sales go over 20% very soon.
I would not be surprised to see the figure reaching 25% to 30% in the not too distant future.
With their online business overheads already accounted for,extra sales will push up their margins further.

[couta1]

16% of HLG revenue is generated by their online sales.
This part of their business is growing more quickly than their stores.
Perhaps Corona Virus will see HLG's online sales go over 20% very soon.
I would not be surprised to see the figure reaching 25% to 30% in the not too distant future.
With their online business overheads already accounted for,extra sales will push up their margins further. Nice one Percy, very good point.:cool:

[macduffy]

Yes, good point, percy. Meanwhile, though, they still have those stores and staff to maintain and pay so let's hope that the supply chain doesn't suffer prolonged disruption.

Disc: "Rat and mouse" holder and keen buyer again in future!

[dreamcatcher]

16% of HLG revenue is generated by their online sales.
This part of their business is growing more quickly than their stores.
Perhaps Corona Virus will see HLG's online sales go over 20% very soon.
I would not be surprised to see the figure reaching 25% to 30% in the not too distant future.
With their online business overheads already accounted for,extra sales will push up their margins further.

The game has changed maybe all shopping will be done online who knows but will it make up for any shortfall from lack of mall foot-traffic buyers ?

[macduffy]

The game has changed maybe all shopping will be done online who knows but will it make up for any shortfall from lack of mall foot-traffic buyers ?

That's the question! Meanwhile, HLG's pro-active moves should see it capturing an increasing share of whatever business is still being done.

[Beagle]

16% of HLG revenue is generated by their online sales.
This part of their business is growing more quickly than their stores.
Perhaps Corona Virus will see HLG's online sales go over 20% very soon.
I would not be surprised to see the figure reaching 25% to 30% in the not too distant future.
With their online business overheads already accounted for,extra sales will push up their margins further.

Unless the extra online sales are a substitute for mall sales which would appear quite likely with the Covid 19 virus in which case it would make no difference.
The worry is that most people want to try clothes on before they buy them so will they still be game to go to the malls to do so ? That's the $64,000 question, or in Coutts case a LOT more.

Agree the long term trend to more online shopping is helpful to HLG.

[percy]

The game has changed maybe all shopping will be done online who knows but will it make up for any shortfall from lack of mall foot-traffic buyers ?

Perhaps.?
However it certainly will help.
I see strong online retailers such as HLG and BGP out performing the poor online retailers ,such as MHJ, whose online revenue is only 3% of total revenue.
I would think people who are in isolation will spend more time online,and are likely to buy more goods on line.
Buying new exciting clothing usually cheers up most people.

[percy]

Unless the extra online sales are a substitute for mall sales which would appear quite likely with the Covid 19 virus in which case it would make no difference.
The worry is that most people want to try clothes on before they buy them so will they still be game to go to the malls to do so ? That's the $64,000 question, or in Coutts case a LOT more.

Agree the long term trend to more online shopping is helpful to HLG.

16% going through 20%, to get to 25 to 30%,proves a growing number of people do not try on clothes before buying.
The break down between male/female would be interesting.
I would think once HLG have attracted an online customer,they will retain them,by clever promotions based around their buying pattern.
So even losing short term foot traffic in Malls, because of Corona Virus ,may work to HLG's [and BGR's] long term advantage.

[dreamcatcher]

Nice downramping/scaremongering post with lots of mights/maybes/could be's. Nothing outstandingly special yet it has been around 147yrs and has out survived all comers. DYOR, well obviously I have as I'm sure all of the other big holders have done, sure the price could go down due to as you say low liquidity yet it is and would be driven down in the main by rats and mice sellers. PS-When I get the next shareholder list I will put up how much selling is coming from the top 100 holders as opposed to buying.PPS-From 7/2-21/2 there was an increase of 55418 shares over sells in the top 100 holders.

While I use the words could/may is not definite I am simply guessing like most as Percy used the word 'perhaps' but tell me do you consider their stock choices to be superior to other similar stores and 'Sure' company been around for long time and Top10 hold again does that make them less likely to disappoint.

[Biscuit]

Perhaps.?

Buying new exciting clothing usually cheers up most people.

Personally, I have never bought exciting clothing, and don't like the sound of it. It is the combination of a physical presence plus online that probably working for HLG.

[winner69]

Kevin Hickman doesn’t seem too worried about the HLG share price ... his horses winning at Ellerslie ...enjoying his riches

[winner69]

One thing that puzzles me is that in spite of great store presence and the much vaunted on line business HLG probably are continuing to lose market or at best holding market share.

Proxy for the market is Stats NZ Retail Trade data - clothing sector

Market sales have grown 4.3% pa in 5 years 2014 to 2019. Hallensteins in NZ growth +3.2% pa and Glassons in NZ 3.8% pa. That Glassons figure is weird because it includes the big turnaround.

So in NZ sales only growing in line with the market ...hardly inspiring in light the rhetoric about how good they’re doing in NZ

[dreamcatcher]

Kevin Hickman doesn’t seem too worried about the HLG share price ... his horses winning at Ellerslie ...enjoying his riches

Friends own horses an brings great joy when they win. Personally never backed another horse after the trotter 'Noodlum' won 17 straight going for '18' Gambled my wages of $100 win as paying $1.20 ..........15 lengths ahead with commentator saying would have to fall over to lose when a balloon blew across he ended up unhurt jumping the fence. Believe he raced with blinkers after and continued winning.

[Beagle]

One thing that puzzles me is that in spite of great store presence and the much vaunted on line business HLG probably are continuing to lose market or at best holding market share.

Proxy for the market is Stats NZ Retail Trade data - clothing sector

Market sales have grown 4.3% pa in 5 years 2014 to 2019. Hallensteins in NZ growth +3.2% pa and Glassons in NZ 3.8% pa. That Glassons figure is weird because it includes the big turnaround.

So in NZ sales only growing in line with the market ...hardly inspiring in light the rhetoric about how good they’re doing in NZ

Been doing well in Australia with Glassons though. Young Glasson over there got the Midas touch ? This is one stock I am really looking forward to owning again when the time is right as it really is a well oiled machine. Whether its well oiled enough to withstand the present headwinds is another thing. I think the share price continues to go backwards for a while but quite possibly at a much slower pace than the 26% thumping its had in the last 3 months..

[winner69]

Been doing well in Australia with Glassons though. Young Glasson over there got the Midas touch ? This is one stock I am really looking forward to owning again when the time is right as it really is a well oiled machine. Whether its well oiled enough to withstand the present headwinds is another thing. I think the share price continues to go backwards for a while but quite possibly at a much slower pace than the 26% thumping its had in the last 3 months..

Glassons AU sold heaps more in F19 than F18 but didn’t increase profits

Looks to heading that way again

Not much pointin selling heaps more and not making any more.

[couta1]

While I use the words could/may is not definite I am simply guessing like most as Percy used the word 'perhaps' but tell me do you consider their stock choices to be superior to other similar stores and 'Sure' company been around for long time and Top10 hold again does that make them less likely to disappoint. Let's see who is doing the selling, when most of the selling comes from big holders that's not a good sign unless they are wrong like Grahger were when they sold down, but then again they were just players rather than true big money.

[couta1]

Kevin Hickman doesn’t seem too worried about the HLG share price ... his horses winning at Ellerslie ...enjoying his riches Kevin Hickman started RYM with $10000 and his net worth is now a cool 400 million, is he smart or dumb money? You be the judge. PS-He hasnt sold any HLG.

[percy]

Been doing well in Australia with Glassons though. Young Glasson over there got the Midas touch ? This is one stock I am really looking forward to owning again when the time is right as it really is a well oiled machine. Whether its well oiled enough to withstand the present headwinds is another thing. I think the share price continues to go backwards for a while but quite possibly at a much slower pace than the 26% thumping its had in the last 3 months..

With so much carnage in the Aussie rag trade, I would expect HLG are being offered some excellent Mall ,and other sites, at reasonable rentals.
Having such good growth in their online channel,means they can be very choosy.

[Beagle]

Glassons AU sold heaps more in F19 than F18 but didn’t increase profits

Looks to heading that way again

Not much pointin selling heaps more and not making any more.

Hmmm... Currency was an issue...actually speaking of that I see we're under 62.5 cents US now. Currency to be an even bigger headwind going forward ?

[percy]

Hmmm... Currency was an issue...actually speaking of that I see we're under 62.5 cents US now. Currency to be an even bigger headwind going forward ?

Most probably the most important "retail" indicator I look at when considering HLG.

[LAC]

HLG great business and management but I think all this virus stuff will have an effect on the bottom line short term. The Usd not looking too flash for us either. Will be looking to re-enter in low 4s;)

[lissica]

Kevin Hickman started RYM with $10000 and his net worth is now a cool 400 million, is he smart or dumb money? You be the judge. PS-He hasnt sold any HLG.

He made his money building a business, not from stock market investing. Having a lot of money doesn't necessarily make one a sophisticated investor, it's marketing spin from private wealth 'advisors'.

For the record, I bought in recently and looking to add more.

[couta1]

From a TA viewpoint the RSI has never been this oversold over the past 5 yrs, just out of interest.

[couta1]

He made his money building a business, not from stock market investing. Having a lot of money doesn't necessarily make one a sophisticated investor, it's marketing spin from private wealth 'advisors'.

For the record, I bought in recently and looking to add more. Yes but hes not going to risk over 5 mill in a dud company is he, he must have faith in the business/ board and management and be happy with the performance of the company not to sell any shares.

[iceman]

Unless the extra online sales are a substitute for mall sales which would appear quite likely with the Covid 19 virus in which case it would make no difference.
The worry is that most people want to try clothes on before they buy them so will they still be game to go to the malls to do so ? That's the $64,000 question, or in Coutts case a LOT more.

Agree the long term trend to more online shopping is helpful to HLG.

Interestingly we are starting to see a trend where online shoppers are buying less from overseas suppliers and more from local suppliers. The COVID-19 scare may well push this change along at a greater rate

[Beagle]

Interestingly we are starting to see a trend where online shoppers are buying less from overseas suppliers and more from local suppliers. The COVID-19 scare may well push this change along at a greater rate

That will have a lot to do with the change in tax that came into effect on 1 October if my memory serves me correctly whereby buying overseas involved GST as well. Don't ask me the threshold value where GST kicks in as I can't remember.

[iceman]

That will have a lot to do with the change in tax that came into effect on 1 October if my memory serves me correctly whereby buying overseas involved GST as well. Don't ask me the threshold value where GST kicks in as I can't remember.

Yes no doubt this has made a difference and made a fairer playing field for local retailers. The change was overdue. From memory GST has to be paid under the new rules if the Customs duty (incl GST) is greater than $60, but dont quote me on it !

[44wishlists]

If buying via Amazon or eBay from overseas, regardless of the purchase amount, GST of 15% will be automatically added when paying for the item. And that has already been effective.

[iceman]

If buying via Amazon or eBay from overseas, regardless of the purchase amount, GST of 15% will be automatically added when paying for the item. And that has already been effective.

Yes that is correct for those you mention and many more that have registered for GST. I think the rule I mentioned in the post above applies to those retailers or suppliers that are not registered for GST with IRD

[couta1]

Any overseas company with a turnover of 60k plus from NZ sales must charge GST when you purchase an item from them, I notice a few places that aren't so must be under the 60k or trying their luck.

[Beagle]

Any overseas company with a turnover of 60k plus from NZ sales must charge GST when you purchase an item from them, I notice a few places that aren't so must be under the 60k or trying their luck.

Thanks for jogging my memory mate, yeah, that's how I recall it too.

[King1212]

couta...my call was $4.50 and was hit....but did not get any...as too busy at work...

[couta1]

couta...my call was $4.50 and was hit....but did not get any...as too busy at work... Yes it did briefly and now that I have as many shares as I want at this point I got another tool out of my toolbox today to use on this stock.:D

[Beagle]

YAWN...I am happy to wait for $2.70 - $3.00 again.

[couta1]

YAWN...I am happy to wait for $2.70 - $3.00 again. You'll be YAWNing a long time mate, didnt you see how the market bounced back late arvo, the Lemmings were holted. PS-Even if by some miracle it did drop that far the entry queue will be that long, only crumbs will be available.

[peat]

I got another tool out of my toolbox today to use on this stock.:D


mortgaging the house and putting it all into CFD's and leveraging 100:1 :lol:

[Lewylewylewy]

If there's a bit of recession fear, money will go to usd, then where does this leave companies that are effected by currency differences? Im liking the effect on fph, but not sure if it's good for hlg?

[peat]

If there's a bit of recession fear, money will go to usd, then where does this leave companies that are effected by currency differences? Im liking the effect on fph, but not sure if it's good for hlg?


depends on their purchasing currency, wouldn't it be yuan, or rupees , or are these supply chains all costed in USD as a matter of course.

[Mr Slothbear]

depends on their purchasing currency, wouldn't it be yuan, or rupees , or are these supply chains all costed in USD as a matter of course.


All in USD AFAIK

[bull....]

could be whats on the way to our shores for all retailers

WA retail fall worst in 3yrs
Things are going from bad to worse for local retailers, with the latest figures showing WA experienced its biggest monthly fall in retail spending in January in almost three years

https://thewest.com.au/business/wa-retail-fall-worst-in-3yrs-ng-b881481911z

makes perfect sense when you go into a recession retail demand shrinks

[bull....]

New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120139301/retailers-cut-hours-and-staff-as-coronavirus-decimates-sales

probably affecting most i would say

[Beagle]

New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120139301/retailers-cut-hours-and-staff-as-coronavirus-decimates-sales

probably affecting most i would say

That's extremely UGLY and that's before any widespread concern over community transmission of the virus.
Begs the question of how bad its going to get when there is widespread concern over community transmission ?

[King1212]

Cauta will still buying...not matter what happens...

[Beagle]

He can have as many as he likes as far as I am concerned. I am quite surprised by the extent of the retail slowdown at this very early stage and I think its a very ominous sign for the future.

[Cadalac123]

Cauta will still buying...not matter what happens...

Yeah like anyone else who’s logical they’ll either wait this out with cash on the side or DCA. The virus will absolutely increase in count in the coming months but if you think it’ll lead to a standstill in businesses everywhere I want you to sell me a unicorn

[winner69]

He can have as many as he likes as far as I am concerned. I am quite surprised by the extent of the retail slowdown at this very early stage and I think its a very ominous sign for the future.

suppose what happens when fear and panic is fueled by the media and social media

And Sharetrader has helped in this respect I reckon

[Beagle]

suppose what happens when fear and panic is fueled by the media and social media

And Sharetrader has helped in this respect I reckon

Good point that HLG marketing is really plugged into social media channels...and all those people on their fakebook and other social media channels now saying "stay away" from shopping malls.

[winner69]

He can have as many as he likes as far as I am concerned. I am quite surprised by the extent of the retail slowdown at this very early stage and I think its a very ominous sign for the future.

Punters spent too much on Powerball ....and loo paper .....and other shopping off the list at the moment

A buck can only go so far.

[Beagle]

Punters spent too much on Powerball ....and loo paper .....and other shopping off the list at the moment

A buck can only go so far.

Good insight mate.

[BlackPeter]

That's extremely UGLY and that's before any widespread concern over community transmission of the virus.
Begs the question of how bad its going to get when there is widespread concern over community transmission ?

I would take these numbers with a grain of salt. You remember ... "is it true or did you read that on stuff?'

Fake news are free.

Man on Radio NZ this morning talked about a significant increase in supermarket purchases - he said last week was only comparable to the usual pre-christmas madness and he expects this to continue for the coming weeks.

I suppose as well outstanding margins - or do they discount toilet paper, hand sanitizer and face masks these days?

Last time I checked supermarkets have been retail as well.

[Beagle]

For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

[BlackPeter]

For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

I was referring to the stuff line of "New Zealand retailers are reporting a 15 per cent drop in sales in the wake of the corona virus". I think they meant to say some retailers reporting a 15 percent drop ...".

I do agree re HLG ... not too many people will worry whether they wear during self isolation the latest fashion ;): ... and yes, if they invest anyway all available funds into toilet paper and hand sanitizer, then the latest fashion T-shirt just will need to stay in the shop shelves ...

HLG board clearly missed the trend towards people wearing face masks and full body suits. I proposed some weeks ago that they might want to move into this crucial market, but so far it appears they have missed the bus and been more busy instead of taking pictures of lightly clad good looking ladies wearing their products. I guess nothing wrong with the latter, but their timing was suboptimal.

It was Gorbatchow (the last decent Russian president) who said at some stage "He who comes too late is punished by life". Look - he knew already in the late 80'íes what's going to happen to HLG ... :);

[bull....]

roll on $3 :t_up: rinse and repeat

[kiwidollabill]

roll on $3 :t_up: rinse and repeat

That's what I'm waiting for....

[winner69]

Many many decades ago had a holiday job at the place which distributed butter, cheese and eggs to the shops.

One thing I learnt was that Trentham race week (the good ol days when 20-30,000 punters would go to the races) was bad for sales —— could be 20% plus less butter and eggs.

Always remembered that ....essentials some times get shunted down the shopping list....just like Powerball last few weeks.

[Beagle]

That's what I'm waiting for....

"Nothing sweeter than a repeater" This a classic cyclical company after all !! Bought up large last time it went down to $2.75 in 2016 and primed up and ready to go again.

[oldtech]

I think quite a few of us are waiting and eagerly lipping our chops in anticipation with this one!

I first bought at $3.15 in 2017, never thought I'd see those levels again ... waiting waiting waiting

[kiwidollabill]

"Nothing sweeter than a repeater" This a classic cyclical company after all !! Bought up large last time it went down to $2.75 in 2016 and primed up and ready to go again.

The long term view is that they may end up missing the strategic boat in developing a more 'sustainable' aspect to their product offering and getting a better control over their supply chain. Their Australian competitors are working to get better at that but arent as good as HLG on retail fundamentals. I reckon they can get another cycle in before that starts to every affect them.

[Beagle]

I think quite a few of us are waiting and eagerly lipping our chops in anticipation with this one!

I first bought at $3.15 in 2017, never thought I'd see those levels again ... waiting waiting waiting

If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?

[oldtech]

If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?

Eventually sure, but I think there are lots of people - particularly younger ones, in say their 20s or 30s - who are still making light of it and will continue to for some time. They won't stop going to the malls until their friends start getting infected. Even then, they may well rely on their youth and relative health to get them through. And if not, then they'll shop from home.

How many people, when the word "tsunami" is mentioned, rush down to the beach to see it? Lots more than you would like to think ...

[Beagle]

Eventually sure, but I think there are lots of people - particularly younger ones, in say their 20s or 30s - who are still making light of it and will continue to for some time. They won't stop going to the malls until their friends start getting infected. Even then, they may well rely on their youth and relative health to get them through. And if not, then they'll shop from home.

How many people, when the word "tsunami" is mentioned, rush down to the beach to see it? Lots more than you would like to think ...

True that, as stupid as it sounds... but there's nothing to see with this virus for the young ones other than heaps of their friends posting on fakebook and other social media channels how sick they are. I can't speak for others but I know my two daughters aged 28 and 31 are really worried and that was before I started talking to them about putting together contingency plans.

[winner69]

may as well do my bit in putting the fear of god into HLG shareholders ....everybody else is in panic mode

Glassons are going to be really struggling this in year in Aussie — maybe even be such a struggle they decide to pack up shop and come home and just be a NZ company.

Latest consumer confidence over there shocking news - and things going to get worse :

The ANZ Bank–Roy Morgan Research Australian consumer confidence index tumbled 4.2 per cent to 100.4, leaving it well below the average of 113.1 seen over the past 30 years.

It was the lowest reading since May 2014, largely reflecting dire sentiment towards the near-term outlook for the economy.

[percy]

Number two daughter did her best to help Glassons turnover yesterday.

[Arthur]

If we get community spread the shopping malls will be as quiet as a morgue. For what its worth, when the official virus count goes over 10 in N.Z. I am going to assume there's hundreds more infected who are currently asymptomatic and that's me done with shopping malls, restaurants and movies until the coast is clear, however long that might be. Happy to wear last year's clothes around the house, who cares ?

Around 500 a year die in NZ from the seasonal flu. Surprised you are still venturing out, zero deaths from cv19 so far in NZ. Italy is the first place to get a serious bout in the first world. Average 17,000 deaths a year from seasonal flu in Italy, 463 (and increasing quickly) deaths linked to CV19. First mover Singapore has 0 deaths so far, Korea has had similar infection to Italy, but 20% of the death rate for some reason.

[Arbroath]

Italy and Japan have the oldest populations of any countries which is probably why their death rates are higher.

[Beagle]

Around 500 a year die in NZ from the seasonal flu. Surprised you are still venturing out, zero deaths from cv19 so far in NZ. Italy is the first place to get a serious bout in the first world. Average 17,000 deaths a year from seasonal flu in Italy, 463 (and increasing quickly) deaths linked to CV19. First mover Singapore has 0 deaths so far, Korea has had similar infection to Italy, but 20% of the death rate for some reason.

Swapping out tomorrow's regular weekly scheduled movie and drinks gettogether after work with a couple of good mates with a good bush walk in the Waitakere ranges instead. More healthy in more ways than one. They think this is a one-off lol. This thing has given me "paws" for thought, you see what I did there :)

[couta1]

Just reporting some stats for the Trolls, over the last fortnight there was a net increase in shares over the top 100 holders of 225600, bye bye.

[winner69]

Just reporting some stats for the Trolls, over the last fortnight there was a net increase in shares over the top 100 holders of 225600, bye bye.

That’s interesting

Rich get richer while the plebs get poorer

[peat]

That’s interesting

Rich get richer while the plebs get poorer

lol you mean the rich get poorer but they don't really care coz they're still rich

[RupertBear]

Around 500 a year die in NZ from the seasonal flu. Surprised you are still venturing out, zero deaths from cv19 so far in NZ. Italy is the first place to get a serious bout in the first world. Average 17,000 deaths a year from seasonal flu in Italy, 463 (and increasing quickly) deaths linked to CV19. First mover Singapore has 0 deaths so far, Korea has had similar infection to Italy, but 20% of the death rate for some reason.

Finally a sensible non fear mongering post :t_up:

[Arthur]

It sounds like the average age of the Italians dying is 80, Hallensteins is targeting a younger demographic these days.

[Beagle]

That’s interesting

Rich get richer while the plebs get poorer

Do they get richer though ? Down from $6.48 to $4.35, that's a massive drop of $2.13 per share, (33%), in just 3 months and that's with one of the top holders buying fervently to try and support the price !

[percy]

That’s interesting

Rich get richer while the plebs get poorer

Not so.
Just normal.
Shares move from weak holders to strong holders.

[Baa_Baa]

Do they get richer though ? Down from $6.48 to $4.35, that's a massive drop of $2.13 per share, (33%), in just 3 months and that's with one of the top holders buying fervently to try and support the price !

On paper sure is a decent capital rout, but the strong holds have lost nothing if they haven't sold. I'd guess most of the top 20 have seen more than one cycle in this cyclical. I doubt as well that they are momentum traders with a stock like HLG.

Over to you Couta, the dog needs a run in the park, getting bored sitting at home with his auto-sum spreadsheet counting the cash. Lol
;)

Enjoy your walk with your mates. The sun will hopefully come up again tomorrow.

[winner69]

On paper sure is a decent capital rout, but the strong holds have lost nothing if they haven't sold. I'd guess most of the top 20 have seen more than one cycle in this cyclical. I doubt as well that they are momentum traders with a stock like HLG.

Over to you Couta, the dog needs a run in the park, getting bored sitting at home with his auto-sum spreadsheet counting the cash. Lol
;)

Enjoy your walk with your mates. The sun will hopefully come up again tomorrow.

Dire Straits (appropriate name eh) cool song :

Why worry, there should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

[Joshuatree]

Or in kiwi (and aus) lingo "She'll be right mate"
Bought a bargain loss leader psychedelic t-shirt for $10 the other day from hallys. The shop attendant reluctantly gave me a handled paper carrier bag:t_up:

[Beagle]

Dire Straits (appropriate name eh) cool song :

Why worry, there should be laughter after pain
There should be sunshine after rain
These things have always been the same
So why worry now
Why worry now

Good theme song for the annual meeting this year...rally the top ten troops.

Through these fields of destruction
Baptisms of fire
I've witnessed your suffering
as the battle raged higher

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wu4oy1IRTh8

[Cadalac123]

Strong brand based moat with large market share in age demographic targeted. Sadly caught in the binds of the current market downtrend. Added to the watchlist.

[dreamcatcher]

Reckon there's a few more shares coming for the Top100 shortly as retail dives and new minimum wages kick-in April .........

"A survey of Retail NZ members found 70 percent expected to have cash-flow difficulties and 30 percent had already cut staff hours.

Retail NZ chief executive Greg Harford said customers were choosing to cut back on discretionary spending.

"Obviously places like grocery, things are ticking along there, customers are still going out and buying food... but it's really in the discretionary areas of spending - perhaps fashion - where the impact's being felt."

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2020/03/business-confidence-falls-to-lowest-level-since-2009.html

[Filthy]

holding up well today. was expecting to see something starting with a 3 in front of it....

[winner69]

Be interesting to see what happens to HLG sales when the stores get told to close

Still think all this will be the death knell for their Aussie dream.

[bull....]

Be interesting to see what happens to HLG sales when the stores get closed down

Still think all this will be the death knell for their Aussie dream.

wont they go bust or will the govt supply cotton as targeted assistance

[BlackPeter]

Be interesting to see what happens to HLG sales when the stores get told to close

Still think all this will be the death knell for their Aussie dream.

I wouldn't see it that dramatic ... and maybe their online sales start to skyrocket :): Just wondering though whether they disinfect the returns before they send them to the next customer?

Anyway - things likely to get worse before the get better.

[King1212]

Would people priority the clothing during the lockdown?
I would not think so

[Snoopy]

Just wondering though whether they disinfect the returns before they send them to the next customer?


Cost of dry cleaning a shirt: $12. Cost of buying a new shirt (wholesale): $2

I don't think there will much disinfecting going on. They will probably pack the returns up in a box in the corner. Then the major shareholders, like Couta, will have a ready supply of rags so they can polish up their Porsches.

SNOOPY

[couta1]

Cost of dry cleaning a shirt: $12. Cost of buying a new shirt (wholesale): $2

I don't think there will much disinfecting going on. They will probably pack the returns up in a box in the corner. Then the major shareholders, like Couta, will have a ready supply of rags so they can polish up their Porsches.

SNOOPY Just for the record my 1994 Suzuki Escudo with 330000k on the clock gets a wash once a year and has never been polished.

[Beagle]

Just for the record my 1994 Suzuki Escudo with 330000k on the clock gets a wash once a year and has never been polished.

Is that one star safety rated or not rated at all...go any buy yourself a safe car before you lose any more in the market :p

[t.rexjr]

Would people priority the clothing during the lockdown?


There's a few people with holiday money they can spend, so maybe...

[couta1]

Is that one star safety rated or not rated at all...go any buy yourself a safe car before you lose any more in the market :p Who cares, I've been driving it for 20 yrs and I'm still in one piece.

[GR8DAY]

I like your style couta.....man of my own heart, sticking to your principles and beliefs.

[bull....]

Be interesting to see what happens to HLG sales when the stores get told to close

Still think all this will be the death knell for their Aussie dream.

nzd.aud near parity might go higher soon might be the death strike on aussie stores , kathmandu same boat

[dreamcatcher]

nzd.aud near parity might go higher soon might be the death strike on aussie stores , kathmandu same boat

Looking grim for HLG and others as shoppers choosing to stay home and heaps of mall parking now available. Companies that pay high dividends do so for a reason.

[Beagle]

Looking grim for HLG and others as shoppers choosing to stay home and heaps of mall parking now available. Companies that pay high dividends do so for a reason.

It will be interesting to see what dividend if any they announce on 27 March. Directors primary responsibility is the long run survival of a company and I think its better they keep all their reserves and focus on getting through this.

[bull....]

Looking grim for HLG and others as shoppers choosing to stay home and heaps of mall parking now available. Companies that pay high dividends do so for a reason.

so true , good companies dont have high dividend yields ( for those who dont understand if a company has a high div yield its for a reason , hlg probably because its a cyclical business )

[jonu]

It will be interesting to see what dividend if any they announce on 27 March. Directors primary responsibility is the long run survival of a company and I think its better they keep all their reserves and focus on getting through this.

I reckon they'll be fine. Try and keep people from shopping for any length of time! Thoughts of bargains bring people out before long.

[dreamcatcher]

It will be interesting to see what dividend if any they announce on 27 March. Directors primary responsibility is the long run survival of a company and I think its better they keep all their reserves and focus on getting through this.

Agree dividend may be cut or stopped as Covid-19 becoming a serious game changer. Three or four bad months trading will wipe-out next years profits. A mid-2 starting to look more likely..........imo

[jonu]

NZX down 0.6%. HLG down 12% today. Serious imbalance on irrational fear. Covid-19 package heavily favours keeping spending going.

Discl. Holding

[peat]

you havent been margin called have you Couta?



(j/k)

[jonu]

you havent been margin called have you Couta?



(j/k)

Couta will be buying if he is true to form. I certainly did this morning.

[Beagle]

Coutts managed to squeeze out a message by satellite phone from deep within the depths of cold of self exile in the Siberian wilderness. Through the crackle and weak connection I swear I heard him mutter a deep and meaningful philosophical thought. "Money is just a token you use on your journey through life".

Not sure what to make of this... Has he finally cracked the secret code of life or does he have frostbite of the brain lol

[RupertBear]

Coutts managed to squeeze out a message by satellite phone from deep within the depths of cold of self exile in the Siberian wilderness. Through the crackle and weak connection I swear I heard him mutter a deep and meaningful philosophical thought. "Money is just a token you use on your journey through life".

Not sure what to make of this... Has he finally cracked the secret code of life or does he have frostbite of the brain lol

I think he has been spending too much time out howling at the moon through his new binoculars Mr Beagle, its a sign they say :D

[bull....]

this is probably whats in store for NZ WHEN VIRUS SPREADS

Retail Traffic Fell Sharply After U.S. Coronavirus Cases Spiked


Foot traffic to retailers decreased 31% in the week through March 13,

As the virus spread through the U.S., signs indicated that consumers were leaning toward shopping for groceries and cleaning supplies over clothes

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-17/retail-traffic-fell-sharply-after-u-s-coronavirus-cases-spiked?srnd=premium-asia

[couta1]

I like your style couta.....man of my own heart, sticking to your principles and beliefs. So much scaremongering bs and Trolling on here, one must be true to oneself. PS-Avg divvy of 30.5 c paid over the last umpteen yrs including the GFC, think about it, sure it could be cut from last yrs 44c.

[Beagle]

I think he has been spending too much time out howling at the moon through his new binoculars Mr Beagle, its a sign they say :D

I spent some time looking out into space through my humble binoculars and have finally cracked the code to life..... this is profound stuff so listen up !
The sole purpose of man is to learn to love God and learn to love each other. Learning to love yourself and your neighbour is very much part of this.
Jesus is you friend.
Money is just a token you use on your journey through life.

HLG are good regular distributors of these token's so at some stage, (not sure when), they will be a good stock to own again.

[winner69]

I spent some time looking out into space through my humble binoculars and have finally cracked the code to life..... this is profound stuff so listen up !
The sole purpose of man is to learn to love God and learn to love each other. Learning to love yourself and your neighbour is very much part of this.
Jesus is you friend.
Money is just a token you use on your journey through life.

HLG are good regular distributors of these token's so at some stage, (not sure when), they will be a good stock to own again.

Didn’t realise you could see god through binoculars ...is that why Couts got a big telescope?

[bull....]

kathmandu trading update today was not good

There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350139

[couta1]

Didn’t realise you could see god through binoculars ...is that why Couts got a big telescope? Nah that's just his awesome handiwork, the kingdom of God is within you for those that choose.

[Beagle]

There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores, impacting sales performance. Due to the uncertainty around the spread of COVID-19 globally and impacts on demand, at this time, the Group cannot forecast the extent to which COVID-19 will impact the business in the second half of this fiscal year. However, there is likely to be a material adverse impact to earnings. Kathmandu outlook provides a worrying leading indicator of how things might turn out for HLG for the foreseeable future.

[Beagle]

Didn’t realise you could see god through binoculars ...is that why Couts got a big telescope?

Confession time, I might have worked that out, without the use of binoculars :)

[BlackPeter]

Hmm - if people start religious disputes on retail stock threads, than the end truly must be nigh - mustn't it?

[Beagle]

Hmm - if people start religious disputes on retail stock threads, than the end truly must be nigh - mustn't it?

LOL, lets move on. I see the currency is under 59.5 cents US this morning. Regardless of how this virus pans out that sort of exchange rate will be hurting HLG.
I remain very cautious on retail at this stage.

[winner69]

LOL, lets move on. I see the currency is under 59.5 cents US this morning. Regardless of how this virus pans out that sort of exchange rate will be hurting HLG.
I remain very cautious on retail at this stage.

Translation costs v AUD might impact

[macduffy]

kathmandu trading update today was not good

There has been a recent significant reduction in footfall in Australian and New Zealand stores

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350139

Why should that surprise? It's obvious to anyone moving around town/s that there is a lot less "footfall" everywhere at present.

[jonu]

HLG has already taken a 40% hit in share price. bull.... just looking to feed at the trough of it going even lower. I actually use most of his comments as buy signals :D

[couta1]

HLG has already taken a 40% hit in share price. bull.... just looking to feed at the trough of it going even lower. I actually use most of his comments as buy signals :D Amen to that, a real misery guts is he. PS-Massive profit downgrade is currently priced in along with no dividend for a couple of years. Lol

[bull....]

i have lowered my mind set to a price target at this time of 2.50 at minimum due to big drop in earnings coming and reduced div if any but this could change lower at any time

[macduffy]

i have lowered my mind set to a price target at this time of 2.50 at minimum due to big drop in earnings coming and reduced div if any but this could change lower at any time

Looks like I'd better get in and buy some before bull.... enters the market!

;)

[couta1]

Looks like I'd better get in and buy some before bull.... enters the market!

;) He's a game player and knows squat, just his normal Trolling activity.

[bull....]

Over the past month we have seen a reduction in sales and customers visiting our stores.

Smiths City trading update – Covid-19


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350192

I think actually buying any retailer store at the moment could be very risky , biggest risk would be a europe situation where all stores are forced to close. I think I will wait to see how things pan out before jumping at any retailer.

Just in case you have trouble reading

[couta1]

Over the past month we have seen a reduction in sales and customers visiting our stores.

Smiths City trading update – Covid-19


https://www.nzx.com/announcements/350192

I think actually buying any retailer store at the moment could be very risky , biggest risk would be a europe situation where all stores are forced to close. I think I will wait to see how things pan out before jumping at any retailer.

Just in case you have trouble reading Hmm looks like you are a bot after all, I often wondered about that, machine generated bs.