HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Balance]

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/checkpoint/audio/2018772738/covid-19-high-demand-slow-ports-behind-delivery-delays-freight-boss

Mainfreight’s view is that there’s no problem with shipping of freight to NZ (whether from China or elsewhere).

The problem is that there have been unexpected very strong domestic demand and bottle-necks at certain points - like Auckland Port and road transport.

Guess domestic retailers are having bumper demand & sales post lockdown!

WHS latest sales update supports what Mainfreight is saying - strong sales growth in Noel Leeming & Torpedo.

[winner69]

I thought you'd enjoy pages 10-13 of the annual report ;) If you go onto www.hallensteinglasson.co.nz/sustainability you can download the whole 61 page report and really fill your boots to your hearts content.

Good to see they are doing all this stuff and that now they are now giving it more prominence in their reporting.

Suppose you are hoping they are ‘not expending vast management resources’ to this - wouldn’t want them ‘to elevate people and the planet to the same level as shareholders’ would we?

I assume you have given them tacit approval as a shareholder to do this?

I believe genuine good comes from this stuff (assuming they truly believe in it and it’s not just talk) and that it makes them a better and stronger company.

[winner69]

Annual report again.

Bit light on females on Board (2 out of 7) and Management (1 out of 4) ...thought it might have higher seeing a fashion business mainly focused on the women.

And jeez I have more shares than the Chairman

[winner69]

That recent appointment of Sandi Vincent improves gender mix on Board ...now 3 out of 8

Maybe they went out looking for a suitable womanhood become a Director seeing Mary (1 of the 2) is also Managing Director

[winner69]

Wonder if HLG got any nominations for a Director this year.

Last years meeting had somebody asking how a founder / director of a failed retail chain was qualified to be re-elected as a director

And no doubt this years meeting will again bring up that too many directors have been there for far too long and question whether they have a succession plan because some shareholders are concerned about the vulnerability of the company and the stability of its governance.

[Everwood]

Hallenstein dividend will be paid on the 15th December 2020, what is the last day you will need to be on the share registry to receive the dividend? For example if you held Air NZ shares this year, the dividend was paid on 25 March, to shareholders who were on share registry on the 13 March.

If you sold your Hallenstein shares now, would you still receive the dividend?

Your help would be much appreciated!

[Balance]

Hallenstein dividend will be paid on the 15th December 2020, what is the last day you will need to be on the share registry to receive the dividend? For example if you held Air NZ shares this year, the dividend was paid on 25 March, to shareholders who were on share registry on the 13 March.

If you sold your Hallenstein shares now, would you still receive the dividend?

Your help would be much appreciated!

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

Answer as per the dividend advice.

Re Ex-dividend:

If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend. ... With a significant dividend, the price of a stock may fall by that amount on the ex-dividend date.

[777]

Hallenstein dividend will be paid on the 15th December 2020, what is the last day you will need to be on the share registry to receive the dividend? For example if you held Air NZ shares this year, the dividend was paid on 25 March, to shareholders who were on share registry on the 13 March.

If you sold your Hallenstein shares now, would you still receive the dividend?

Your help would be much appreciated!

As with all shares you have to be on the share registry at record date. There is an cum dividend date and an ex dividend date (the next day) and the record date is the next day after the ex date.

[Everwood]

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

Answer as per the dividend advice.

Re Ex-dividend:

If you purchase a stock on its ex-dividend date or after, you will not receive the next dividend payment. Instead, the seller gets the dividend. If you purchase before the ex-dividend date, you get the dividend. ... With a significant dividend, the price of a stock may fall by that amount on the ex-dividend date.


Thank you for that! I couldn't find the information within the full year results notice on 25 August. In future, I know I can find the ex dividend date on NZX website.

[percy]

Wonder if HLG got any nominations for a Director this year.

Last years meeting had somebody asking how a founder / director of a failed retail chain was qualified to be re-elected as a director

And no doubt this years meeting will again bring up that too many directors have been there for far too long and question whether they have a succession plan because some shareholders are concerned about the vulnerability of the company and the stability of its governance.

Shareholders at last year's agm were more than happy with the excellent performance from the current directors.
Their performance this year means shareholders were correct in reappointing them,and I would expect they will be reappointed again at this year's agm.
Was very telling how well Tim Glasson spoke of the contribution of the director whose business failed. He made all the difference to them being successful with shoes.

[winner69]

Shareholders at last year's agm were more than happy with the excellent performance from the current directors.
Their performance this year means shareholders were correct in reappointing them,and I would expect they will be reappointed again at this year's agm.
Was very telling how well Tim Glasson spoke of the contribution of the director whose business failed. He made all the difference to them being successful with shoes.

Over 2.7 million (14%) votes were NO for Donovan to be re-elected

Wonder whose up for re-election this year

[winner69]

Remember that Hallensteins campaign last year when hot model Laura Evans invited women to wear their skinny fit suits

Outraged many .....probably didn’t achieve its aim seeing Hallensteins continue to be a bit of a disaster


Got to try things ....in marketing not everything works

[Beagle]

Good to see they are doing all this stuff and that now they are now giving it more prominence in their reporting.

Suppose you are hoping they are ‘not expending vast management resources’ to this - wouldn’t want them ‘to elevate people and the planet to the same level as shareholders’ would we?

I assume you have given them tacit approval as a shareholder to do this?

I believe genuine good comes from this stuff (assuming they truly believe in it and it’s not just talk) and that it makes them a better and stronger company.

Pages 10-13 did give me the sense that HLG is a responsible corporate citizen and yes that absolutely matters to me. Very cool for instance that they do annual audits of their suppliers to check they are in compliance with their supplier code of conduct, matters outlined in page 11.

[percy]

Over 2.7 million (14%) votes were NO for Donovan to be re-elected

Wonder whose up for re-election this year

I would expect those votes were proxy held by NZSA.
Of the 59,649,061 shares on issue that was 4.5% only.
Resolution 5.2: To re-elect Michael Donovan as a Director.
Resolution 5.2 passed by the shareholders following a poll. Votes for 18,723,497 (87.37%), votes against 2,706,522
(12.63%). Total Votes 2,1430,019.
ps/Talking to two long term shareholders,after the agm,one with a large holdings,both thought NZSA were wrong to question Mr.Donovan's suitability.
What was pleasing was Tim Glasson's strong endorsement of Mr.Donovan.
Perhaps NZSA should of spoken to Tim Glasson before raising their concerns at the agm.

[winner69]

I would expect those votes were proxy held by NZSA.
Of the 59,649,061 shares on issue that was 4.5% only.
Resolution 5.2: To re-elect Michael Donovan as a Director.
Resolution 5.2 passed by the shareholders following a poll. Votes for 18,723,497 (87.37%), votes against 2,706,522
(12.63%). Total Votes 2,1430,019.
ps/Talking to two long term shareholder,after the agm,one with a large holdings,both thought NZSA were wrong to question Mr.Donovan's suitability.
What was pleasing was Tim Glasson's support for him.

Good or bad that only 35% of shares were voted ...assuming Tim voted so not that many bothered

Probably a case of happy with divie and not bothered about ASMs

[percy]

Good or bad that only 35% of shares were voted ...assuming Tim voted so not that many bothered

Probably a case of happy with divie and not bothered about ASMs

A very well attended meeting.
Yes we remember well when Tim did not support a director's re-election.
Poor chap was most surprised to lose his directorship...lol.

[couta1]

Current sp looks a bit toppy to me so I just sold some.

[Balance]

Current sp looks a bit toppy to me so I just sold some.

Been looking toppy since $4.50?

Next profit upgrade though should see it go above $7.50?

[couta1]

Been looking toppy since $4.50?

Next profit upgrade should see it so above $7.50. Well all things are possible but not all things are likely, I simply ask myself if I would be happy to buy and hold a large holding at the current price and the answer is NO.

[Beagle]

Current sp looks a bit toppy to me so I just sold some.

You should have phoned me mate, we could have both saved some brokerage with an off market deal. I probably bought yours off you on market lol

For mine, 7 is the new 6 considering where interest rates are at 100 year lows and then there's their current strong growth in sales (probably to be updated in the next few weeks) and the forthcoming 24 cent dividend. I'm with Balance, this could easily go over $7.50 and on the off chance they do get included in the NZX50 its then really off to the races !

[couta1]

You should have phoned me mate, we could have both saved some brokerage with an off market deal. I probably bought yours off you on market lol

For mine, 7 is the new 6 considering where interest rates are at 100 year lows and then there's their current strong growth in sales (probably to be updated in the next few weeks) and the forthcoming 24 cent dividend. I'm with Balance, this could easily go over $7.50 and on the off chance they do get included in the NZX50 its then really off to the races ! The chances of it being included in the NZX50 over the next year is slim IMO, paying whatever to get a yield can lead to some serious skin burns and looking at the prices of a lot of the NZX at the moment, there is a good chance of those burns.

[sb9]

Been looking toppy since $4.50?

Next profit upgrade though should see it go above $7.50?

ASM on 9th Dec would provide more detail around trading update esp Aus side of things. If all going well could well be sp with 8 handle before year end.

[couta1]

ASM on 9th Dec would provide more detail around trading update esp Aus side of things. If all going well could well be sp with 8 handle before year end. An 8 handle is like me wishing for a 30 handle for A2 before year end. Lol

[Balance]

The chances of it being included in the NZX50 over the next year is slim IMO, paying whatever to get a yield can lead to some serious skin burns and looking at the prices of a lot of the NZX at the moment, there is a good chance of those burns.

The big picture play on HLG to me is that interest rates are going to go lower - Adrian Orr has made it clear that house prices are not his problem, and that he will introduce LVRs to curtail demand.

Then, there's evidence of strong retail sales out there which will benefit a proven operator like HLG.

So, low interest rates + increased sales & profits = $7.50 imo.

[Balance]

An 8 handle is like me wishing for a 30 handle for A2 before year end. Lol

Let's hope that both get there?

[winner69]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November.

[couta1]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November. There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

[Beagle]

Probably only a sales update in early December ...they will say ‘ It is difficult to reliably forecast the total Summer season at this stage’ and won’t mention profit.

So sales up 11% on pcp in first 8 weeks of F21 .......I reckon that will have reduced to about 5% for the 16 weeks to end November.

We'll see. I reckon a test of the all time high of $6.48 is imminent and almost certain to be resoundingly broken. A lot of people have forgotten about the ~ $50m cash (83 cents cash per share) on their balance sheet and its clear with that, combined with higher sales and dramatically lower interest rates (warranting another 1.5 PE on their own compared to this time last year), the shares are worth considerably more today that when they were $6.48 about a year ago. I have learned never to sell shares in a clearly defined uptrend.

Closing price today at $6.43 is really only the equivalent of $6.19 ex divvy and compared to the metrics of WHS and BGR and taking into account the cash on HLG's balance sheet I still think HLG is on an absolute basis on its own merits compelling value at this level and even more so when compared to it peers.

[Waltzing]

rerated BBB+

[winner69]

There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

That surely would ....but will they?

[Beagle]

There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

For the record, over the weekend I took the opportunity to clearly articulate my view to the board and invited them to contact me further to discuss if they wish. This morning I have received confirmation they have received my email. One thing I know I can rely on is that Tim Glasson has an extremely experienced owners eye on this business and whatever decision he and the board make will be what they think is in the best interests of the company. Its time to move on from that subject...I wouldn't be talking about meltdown's in regard to HLG if I were you...

[Balance]

For the record, over the weekend I took the opportunity to clearly articulate my view to the board and invited them to contact me further to discuss if they wish. This morning I have received confirmation they have received my email. One thing I know I can rely on is that Tim Glasson has an extremely experienced owners eye on this business and whatever decision he and the board make will be what they think is in the best interests of the company. Its time to move on from that subject...I wouldn't be talking about meltdown's in regard to HLG if I were you...

Not a problem either way imo.

Problem is the public swallowing whole the hypocrisy of Cindy & her team of incompetents.

Enjoy the inter-generational theft of wealth taking place, folks - just make sure you take care of your own.

[couta1]

For the record, over the weekend I took the opportunity to clearly articulate my view to the board and invited them to contact me further to discuss if they wish. This morning I have received confirmation they have received my email. One thing I know I can rely on is that Tim Glasson has an extremely experienced owners eye on this business and whatever decision he and the board make will be what they think is in the best interests of the company. Its time to move on from that subject...I wouldn't be talking about meltdown's in regard to HLG if I were you... Always been happy to mention both my succeses and failures in the market and still very proud to have made the top 10 holders of this stock.PS-You cannot be proud of what you might or might not achieve, only what you have already achieved.

[Beagle]

Fair enough lets move on.
I am really looking forward to the 24 cent fully imputed divvy next month and my expectations are there will be another one of a very similar size in April 2021.
HLG appears well placed with so much cash to pay out ostensibly all their earnings in FY21 and beyond. What if they make $37m that's 62 cents a share per annum !!
WOW...what would happen to the share price if they started paying fully imputed dividends of 62 cps per annum (86 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits) in dividends ? Hmmm...
The ol cliché, "well positioned" springs readily to mind ;)

[Balance]

Fair enough lets move on.
I am really looking forward to the 24 cent fully imputed divvy next month and my expectations are there will be another one of a very similar size in April 2021.
HLG appears well placed with so much cash to pay out ostensibly all their earnings in FY21 and beyond. What if they make $37m that's 62 cents a share per annum !!
WOW...what would happen to the share price if they started paying fully imputed dividends of 62 cps per annum (86 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits) in dividends ? Hmmm...
The ol cliché, "well positioned" springs readily to mind ;)

Closed at $6.43 today - an All Time High.

Interesting to note previous ATHs vs 10 year government bond rate & OCR being :

03/2013 $5.75 3.70% 2.50%

08/2018 $6.29 2.60% 1.75%

12/2019 $6.38 1.50% 1.00%

11/2020 $6.43 0.89% 0.25%

Simplistically, all things being equal and allowing for an equity risk premium of 3%, HLG is worth $7.38 at today's interest rate settings so will comfortably imo go above $7.00 if it announces a similar result in F21 to F19.

If F21 profits are higher than F19, let your optimism flourish as to the share price!

[Beagle]

Closed at $6.43 today - an All Time High.

Interesting to note previous ATHs vs 10 year government bond rate & OCR being :

03/2013 $5.75 3.70% 2.50%

08/2018 $6.29 2.60% 1.75%

12/2019 $6.38 1.50% 1.00%

11/2020 $6.43 0.89% 0.25%

Simplistically, all things being equal and allowing for an equity risk premium of 3%, HLG is worth $7.38 at today's interest rate settings so will comfortably imo go above $7.00 if it announces a similar result in F21 to F19.

If F21 profits are higher than F19, let your optimism flourish as to the share price!

Thanks. That's a very useful post for many to reflect upon, much appreciated. $7.38 ex divvy is of course the same as $7.62 cum divvy and then as you quite rightly point out if sales and profits keep climbing (which I am very confident they will), the future looks very promising indeed ! The current exchange rate is very favorable.

One thing to also be cognisant / wary of is that the share register is fairly wide open with the top 20 shareholders owning just 39% of the shares. If sales grow strongly and we're headed toward net profit in the mid-late $30m range the forward PE of just 10 could mean some overseas retailer might think those metrics are simply too compelling and have a crack at a takeover.
When predatory companies can borrow at 2% and achieve a 10% return on investment its highly eps accretive from the get go even before any synergies and further growth. I'd really be upset to see this disappear into foreign ownership though...such a long proud history as a N.Z. company.

Its a shame institutions like the N.Z. super fund aren't more supportive of quality N.Z. companies like this one with all its history but are happy to get into political grandstanding immediately after they've sold shareholders in another N.Z. company in Metlifecare down the river. Maybe some heads need to roll at the senior portfolio manager level or new directors are appointed with a fresh perspective, or better still, both !

[Baa_Baa]

Closed at $6.43 today - an All Time High.

Interesting to note previous ATHs vs 10 year government bond rate & OCR being :

03/2013 $5.75 3.70% 2.50%

08/2018 $6.29 2.60% 1.75%

12/2019 $6.38 1.50% 1.00%

11/2020 $6.43 0.89% 0.25%

Simplistically, all things being equal and allowing for an equity risk premium of 3%, HLG is worth $7.38 at today's interest rate settings so will comfortably imo go above $7.00 if it announces a similar result in F21 to F19.

If F21 profits are higher than F19, let your optimism flourish as to the share price!

A comparison chart would be more helpful if you wish to correlate the SP to bond rate and OCR. Picking just the SP highs and the corresponding bond rate and OCR could be misleading. Leaving out 5 years between 2013 and 2018 could also be misleading. To illustrate the full picture, plot on a chart the monthly SP vs Bond Rate vs OCR for every year, say for the past 15 years or as far as your data goes back.

HLG is a gut wrenchingly volatile SP, people deserve to know that, ATH's are for as long as the SP history goes, followed shortly by capital destroying lows. It takes a special kind of detached investor to ignore capital fluctuations over a long time period in order to solely enjoy the earnings of this company.

The current proponents I feel have no intention whatsoever of experiencing the SP lows of the lows, and are proven to be nimble enough to change their mind when the capital price scenario changes to a downtrend, which it will in time.

[Balance]

A comparison chart would be more helpful if you wish to correlate the SP to bond rate and OCR. Picking just the SP highs and the corresponding bond rate and OCR could be misleading. Leaving out 5 years between 2013 and 2018 could also be misleading. To illustrate the full picture, plot on a chart the monthly SP vs Bond Rate vs OCR for every year, say for the past 15 years or as far as your data goes back.

HLG is a gut wrenchingly volatile SP, people deserve to know that, ATH's are for as long as the SP history goes, followed shortly by capital destroying lows. It takes a special kind of detached investor to ignore capital fluctuations over a long time period in order to solely enjoy the earnings of this company.

The current proponents I feel have no intention whatsoever of experiencing the SP lows of the lows, and are proven to be nimble enough to change their mind when the capital price scenario changes to a downtrend, which it will in time.

Your thoughts and caution are appreciated, Baa Baa.

I am simply sharing my thoughts and I invest accordingly.

Given HLG’s track record, I am highlighting what I believe to be the two key drivers of the sp currently - ever lower interest rates and increasing sales/profits. Both are trending positive imo for HLG.

Another factor I did think was that HLG would replace MET in the NZX50 index after a broker who was accurate with predicting that Serko would replace NZR in September thought that either HLG or TWR would be the next cab off the ranks. PEB got in much to his surprise but not to W69. At this stage, it is unlikely that there will be any changes to the index in December.

Should HLG get in (as a surprise inclusion), I am very confident that we will see at least a $7.50 sp just due to the indexing. It is not something I am expecting however.

[Cyclical]

There is something else they might mention in that update but won't mention it here cause Beagle might have another meltdown. Lol

Umm, they're getting out of bikinis and firing the young hot things adorning the website?

[Cyclical]

HLG is a gut wrenchingly volatile SP, people deserve to know that, ATH's are for as long as the SP history goes, followed shortly by capital destroying lows. It takes a special kind of detached investor to ignore capital fluctuations over a long time period in order to solely enjoy the earnings of this company.

The current proponents I feel have no intention whatsoever of experiencing the SP lows of the lows, and are proven to be nimble enough to change their mind when the capital price scenario changes to a downtrend, which it will in time.

Yep, this is something I'm conscious of. But then, in the past it was probably easier to find more attractive places to put your money...?

[Beagle]

This surely is a rhetorical question...but indulge me for a minute. Taking into account their relative track records which company would you rather invest in, WHS or HLG ? That's a no brainer as far as I am concerned. Today WHS hit $2.60. The average analyst has forecast FY21 eps of 17 cps so its currently on a forward PE of 15.3.

If HLG can do $35m for FY21 that's 58.7 cps and if we apply the same forward PE, (I think its a much better company) that's 58.7 x 15.3 = $8.98. Couldn't happen, surely not ?...or could it ;)

[winner69]

A comparison chart would be more helpful if you wish to correlate the SP to bond rate and OCR. Picking just the SP highs and the corresponding bond rate and OCR could be misleading. Leaving out 5 years between 2013 and 2018 could also be misleading. To illustrate the full picture, plot on a chart the monthly SP vs Bond Rate vs OCR for every year, say for the past 15 years or as far as your data goes back.

HLG is a gut wrenchingly volatile SP, people deserve to know that, ATH's are for as long as the SP history goes, followed shortly by capital destroying lows. It takes a special kind of detached investor to ignore capital fluctuations over a long time period in order to solely enjoy the earnings of this company.

The current proponents I feel have no intention whatsoever of experiencing the SP lows of the lows, and are proven to be nimble enough to change their mind when the capital price scenario changes to a downtrend, which it will in time.

Good points baa_baa

For what's worth there is lweak correlation between 10yr govt stock rates and HLG share price

The scatter chart has dots all over the place with a Rsqrd of 0.08 (which essentially says bond rates account for 8% of the changes in share price)

Might need to look at yields over time but you can't get away from HLG share price being very cyclical with large swings from lows to highs ....and your last sentence is spot on

[winner69]

For the record, over the weekend I took the opportunity to clearly articulate my view to the board and invited them to contact me further to discuss if they wish. This morning I have received confirmation they have received my email. One thing I know I can rely on is that Tim Glasson has an extremely experienced owners eye on this business and whatever decision he and the board make will be what they think is in the best interests of the company. Its time to move on from that subject...I wouldn't be talking about meltdown's in regard to HLG if I were you...

Thanks for prompting me to do much the same ... I’ve sent my views off to the Board as well.

Probably not as well articulated as your letter but hopefully they’ll listen.

[Beagle]

Thanks for prompting me to do much the same ... I’ve sent my views off to the Board as well.

Probably not as well articulated as your letter but hopefully they’ll listen.

As it turns out they have already clearly stated their position on the matter and the reasons why so we both wasted our time.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies
I am very comfortable with their position. Its time to move on.

[winner69]

As it turns out they have already clearly stated their position on the matter and the reasons why so we both wasted our time.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies
I am very comfortable with their position. Its time to move on.

Whatever ...they still should listen to what shareholders say if any shareholder feels compelled to say something.

[Beagle]

Whatever ...they still should listen to what shareholders say if any shareholder feels compelled to say something.

Yes...the usual forum for that as you know is the annual shareholders meeting.

[Balance]

As it turns out they have already clearly stated their position on the matter and the reasons why so we both wasted out time
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies
I am very comfortable with their position on the matter.

Don't under-estimate the woke leftist self-serving hypocritical brigade continuing to use the wage subsidy as a deflection from the multi-policy failures of Cindy's government - especially housing.

[winner69]

Yes...the usual forum for that as you know is the annual shareholders meeting.

But a HLG guiding principle is -

“The Board should respect the rights of shareholders and foster constructive relationships with shareholders that encourage them to engage with the issuer.”

To me that means I can engage with them at any time I wish ...,and hope that at a minimum they ‘listen’

[Beagle]

Don't under-estimate the woke leftist self-serving hypocritical brigade continuing to use the wage subsidy as a deflection from the multi-policy failures of Cindy's government - especially housing.

I very much appreciate you sharing your well considered thoughts on the matter in this and the other thread.

[Beagle]

But a HLG guiding principle is -

“The Board should respect the rights of shareholders and foster constructive relationships with shareholders that encourage them to engage with the issuer.”

To me that means I can engage with them at any time I wish ...,and hope that at a minimum they ‘listen’

Fair enough.

[Raz]

Don't under-estimate the woke leftist self-serving hypocritical brigade continuing to use the wage subsidy as a deflection from the multi-policy failures of Cindy's government - especially housing.

Except for this risk, I fail to see currently what all the fuss is about.

[peat]

Don't under-estimate the woke leftist self-serving hypocritical brigade continuing to use the wage subsidy as a deflection from the multi-policy failures of Cindy's government - especially housing.
The wage subsidy and its moral concerns are not a deflection off Labour's failure , they represent an actual failure of the development of the rules around it. Jacinda has admitted as such.

Company's will and should do what's best for them....

I look at the history of my trading this stock and should be rinsing and repeating (re-peat, geddit) but cannot sell in the current environment. TINA TRINA TRINFA

[Beagle]

TRINFA - I love it, hits the nail directly on the head !

[Waltzing]

Even thought light in vol its one of the best invest and or trading stocks on the NZX..

rated Beagles BBB+

DISC: own and trade in separate portfolios. New trading range 5 . 80 - 6.50 until farther earnings upgrades. Down grades sell if you can ...and thats what makes it so wonderful. The light vol craters the price.

6.50 holding..

[nztx]

Just short of 60 mil shares on issue with a fair chunk tied up by long term holders & more
in demand - on good results & low interest yields - it's difficult to not see available shares
further tighten & HLG SP accelerate further north & stay up there longer term

Imagine what would happen if the big funds decided they had an appetite for a slice of HLG

[Balance]

Just short of 60 mil shares on issue with a fair chunk tied up by long term holders & more
in demand - on good results & low interest yields - it's difficult to not see available shares
further tighten & HLG SP accelerate further north & stay up there longer term

Imagine what would happen if the big funds decided they had an appetite for a slice of HLG

Which would automatically happen if HLG gets back into the NZX50 index.

Cause & effect.

Unfortunately, unlikely to happen now.

I suspect S&P DJI twisted a few things to get PEB to replace MET - should have been HLG. Second time PEB has done to HLG.

[Beagle]

Which would automatically happen if HLG gets back into the NZX50 index.

Cause & effect.

Unfortunately, unlikely to happen now.

I suspect S&P DJI twisted a few things to get PEB to replace MET - should have been HLG.

With the truly outstanding dividend yield on offer its not difficult to be patient. My sense is that patient investors will be rewarded in regard to index inclusion at some stage in the not too distant future, maybe sometime in 2021.

[winner69]

Maybe $6.50 close today

Go you little beauty

[couta1]

Maybe $6.50 close today

Go you little beauty Lot of sellers grouping up around this level and who would blame them aye.

[Snow Leopard]

Lot of sellers grouping up around this level and who would blame them aye.

So you do not subscribe to the belief articulated here that fair value for HLG is always $2 more than the current market price then? ;)

[winner69]

Lot of sellers grouping up around this level and who would blame them aye.

There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns

Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing

Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years

Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge

Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year

Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.

Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance

But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.

[couta1]

So you do not subscribe to the belief articulated here that fair value for HLG is always $2 more than the current market price then? ;) Haha you mean the movable goalpost theory. PS-Sellers starting to overpower buyers.

[nztx]

There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns

Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing

Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years

Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge

Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year

Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.

Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance

But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.

In more normal years - Yes

but with our current economic factors meaning huge Excess Loot in the system & Low cost money
is fighting to see better returns - plus further vast amounts released from takeovers, Bonus Bonds
maturing TD's piling in etc etc, and no wealth capital gains tax

The whole market is up currently too, on reduced respectable candidates to throw it at

That scenario wont subside anytime soon while interest rates are miserably low for savings & deposits

Scale those into normalised scenario & HLG $7's/$8's wouldn't surprise & may stay around for some time
not subsiding while improving results prevail

Move into stocks which are reasonably solid / have good forward prospects / EPS & DPS has & is
occurring as far as I can see..

There are a hoard of new aware punters - such as Sharesies Retail investors in the market now too

[couta1]

In more normal years - Yes

but with our current economic factors meaning huge Excess Loot in the system & Low cost money
is fighting to see better returns - plus further vast amounts released from takeovers, Bonus Bonds
maturing TD's piling in etc etc, and no wealth capital gains tax

The whole market is up currently too, on reduced respectable candidates to throw it at

That scenario wont subside anytime soon while interest rates are miserably low for savings & deposits

Scale those into normalised scenario & HLG $7's/$8's wouldn't surprise & may stay around for some time
not subsiding while improving results prevail

Move into stocks which are reasonably solid / have good forward prospects / EPS & DPS has & is
occurring as far as I can see..

There are a hoard of new aware punters - such as Sharesies Retail investors in the market now too Yield at any price leads to scorched earth capital eventually. PS-Shouldnt that read new unaware punters in the market now too?

[Cyclical]

PS-Shouldnt that read new unaware punters in the market now too?

For sure. And it remains to be seen how many would vanish at the first sign of a scorching. The flip side of that though is there is plenty of cash around to pluck up "bargains" as they present themselves. Investment property is likely to become unattractive in the next few months, if not just through reinstatement of LVR restrictions, or excessive valuations, then probably something else the government will come up with to dampen the flames...then there will be more money looking for reasonable yield. Yeah, unless there is a sizeable profit downgrade, or things turn to custard in Oz (I'm expecting the reverse tbh) for some reason, then I think this is one is safe to continue it's incline.

[Balance]

There's an old saying - buy at top end of valuations and expect disappointing future returns

Seems to be true for HLG - when share price peaks (stretching valuations) future years returns have been disappointing

Peaked Mar13 and returns including dividends down down 36% in next 3 years

Peaked Aug18 and just ahead now after recent surge

Peaked Nov19 and just ahead after a year

Just as well this times different eh and the story is compelling as it was a year or so ago.

Capital preservation strategy been implemented --- keeping a real close eye on the squiggly lines on the chart and looking closely at any factors that could impact their performance

But hoping like anything the share price will get to $7.50 or even higher.

Words of wisdom, W69.

Not sure whether the writeup below qualifies as worthy of note but it certainly paints a glowing picture of HLG :

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/four-signs-of-a-competitive-moat-at-hallenstein-glasson-holdings-nzehlg-135528/

Excerpt :

By looking at a small number of important ratios you can get an idea about the competitive strength and profit power in a business.

Here's what they are and why they are important - and how Hallenstein Glasson Holdings stacks up against them:

High rates of Free Cash Flow - the measure of a thriving company.
- A high ratio of free cash flow to sales can be a very positive sign. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an impressive 20.7%.

High Return on Capital Employed - the measure of a company growing efficiently and profitably.
- A 5-year average ROCE of more than 12 percent is a pointer to strong efficiency. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an eye-catching 41.7%.

High Return on Equity (compared to peers) - the measure of a company making good profits from its assets.
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average ROE of 34.2%.

High Operating Margins (compared to peers) - the measure of a company with pricing power
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average operating margin of 11.8%.

[winner69]

Words of wisdom, W69.

Not sure whether the writeup below qualifies as worthy of note but it certainly paints a glowing picture of HLG :

https://www.stockopedia.com/articles/four-signs-of-a-competitive-moat-at-hallenstein-glasson-holdings-nzehlg-135528/

Excerpt :

By looking at a small number of important ratios you can get an idea about the competitive strength and profit power in a business.

Here's what they are and why they are important - and how Hallenstein Glasson Holdings stacks up against them:

High rates of Free Cash Flow - the measure of a thriving company.
- A high ratio of free cash flow to sales can be a very positive sign. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an impressive 20.7%.

High Return on Capital Employed - the measure of a company growing efficiently and profitably.
- A 5-year average ROCE of more than 12 percent is a pointer to strong efficiency. For Hallenstein Glasson Holdings, the figure is an eye-catching 41.7%.

High Return on Equity (compared to peers) - the measure of a company making good profits from its assets.
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average ROE of 34.2%.

High Operating Margins (compared to peers) - the measure of a company with pricing power
- Hallenstein Glasson Holdings has a 5-year average operating margin of 11.8%.

Yes on most financial and operating metrics HLG is the envy of all retailers in NZ and probably globally.

Have a tried and true formula which generates that 30cents/40 cents dividend year in and year out

[Beagle]

Yield at any price leads to scorched earth capital eventually. PS-Shouldnt that read new unaware punters in the market now too?

With all due respect mate I think there's several things you're overlooking.
1. Metrics (forward PE and dividend yield) are all a function of the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate and that's dramatically lower than last time this was over $6. This adds just over $1 by my calculations.
2. $50m cash on the balance sheet is about $35m more than average and this adds about 60 cents to fair value compared to the past.
3. Their genuine growth compared to FY19 and this has the potential to add about another 10 cps in earnings (worth about $1.50 to the share price if this growth happens...time will tell).
4. Online sales growth (the holy grail of retail), has been incredibly strong and is sector leading compared to its N.Z. peers. This is currently not being priced into the shares and I won't attempt to ascribe a value to it but its no small thing.
5. This is "anything but" yield at any price, in fact its probably the top yielding share on the NZX
6. 24 cent divvy just around the corner so the theoretical ex divvy price is really only $6.23.

I know this post won't change your mind having just sold some but maybe consider keeping what you have left ?

For those that don't know what Peat was saying earlier today in post #5302 TINA is an acronym for There is no alternative (to shares), TRINA is an acronym for "There really is no alternative" (to shares) and TRINFA is an acronym for...well...use your imagination ;)

Another fresh all time closing high today and I am very confident there will be many more to come.

Many thanks indeed for that link Balance. Awesome article :t_up:

[Baa_Baa]

Yes on most financial and operating metrics HLG is the envy of all retailers in NZ and probably globally.

Have a tried and true formula which generates that 30cents/40 cents dividend year in and year out

That’s what keeps it interesting, like now when the SP is bashing against its historical high prices and selling (resistance) volume increasing.

Keeping a close eye on the chart to assess market sentiment is important right now, this might make 30-40 cents return, but it can lose way more than that in capital, virtually in a heart beat.

Heck it was $1.80 this year!!! So a great ride for any one since then, but fact is it’s at previous sentiment high and people calling for another 50-100 cents based purely on FA are imo optimistic.

That call alone, for SP appreciation, points to capital sensitivity (motivation for holding at a high price) like it’d be Great if the SP goes up but if it doesn’t I can reconcile my position with the earnings. Watch that sentiment get tested when the SP turns down again. Those sentiments run for the hills.

That’s ok but they’re also the ones who’ll be first at the exit if resistance prevails and a new sentiment down sets in. I do not see any long term committed investors here who can stomach the volatility in capital purely for earnings. Not one. I’m sure they exist, but not here talking us into believing the upside is inevitable and volatility will miraculously go away forever.

Momentum traders love a dividend while they’re holding, it’s cream on top of capital gains, but momentum is what takes them out as fast as it got them in. Regardless of the narrative surrounding their position, they’re very very good momentum traders, happy to take a bonus dividend feed or two along the way.

TA says... nah, it’s flashing in big bold letters CAUTION ⚠️ Stay alert.

[Balance]

That’s what keeps it interesting, like now when the SP is bashing against its historical high prices and selling (resistance) volume increasing.

Keeping a close eye on the chart to assess market sentiment is important right now, this might make 30-40 cents return, but it can lose way more than that in capital, virtually in a heart beat.

Heck it was $1.80 this year!!! So a great ride for any one since then, but fact is it’s at previous sentiment high and people calling for another 50-100 cents based purely on FA are imo optimistic.

That call alone, for SP appreciation, points to capital sensitivity (motivation for holding at a high price) like it’d be Great if the SP goes up but if it doesn’t I can reconcile my position with the earnings. Watch that sentiment get tested when the SP turns down again. Those sentiments run for the hills.

That’s ok but they’re also the ones who’ll be first at the exit if resistance prevails and a new sentiment down sets in. I do not see any long term committed investors here who can stomach the volatility in capital purely for earnings. Not one. I’m sure they exist, but not here talking us into believing the upside is inevitable and volatility will miraculously go away forever.

Momentum traders love a dividend while they’re holding, it’s cream on top of capital gains, but momentum is what takes them out as fast as it got them in. Regardless of the narrative surrounding their position, they’re very very good momentum traders, happy to take a bonus dividend feed or two along the way.

TA says... nah, it’s flashing in big bold letters CAUTION ⚠️ Stay alert.

I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.

[Baa_Baa]

I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.

I don’t know, but maybe you could’ve sold them before they gutted and bought them back at under $1, like I posted at the time. Anyway no worries they’re back like a lot of shares and everyone is happy happy joy joy 🤩

I didn’t sell my OCA but I sure bought a truck load more at slightly over half my average holding prices at the time

Sorry off topic.

So to conclude on topic, HLG frequently presents excellent buying opportunity, and capital gains selling opportunity. Earnings are the bonus on the journey. It is not a long hold stock for me, it is a momentum stock and needs to be treated as such, which I expect it will by the experts here who have proven skills trading momentum plays.

All the best

[nztx]

I still have my Serko shares as an example if you want to test long term commitment.

Knowing HLG's previous patterns & current market conditions I wouldn't shed any of holding - in fact
on weakness probably add further to the pile

I have others which I wouldn't surrender

Not to say I havent made mistakes & realised a loss on others, only to regret it later

Try ATM around this time last year. This year with a paper loss currently, it's starting to come back
& happy to bide time .. similar patterns occur with many other shares

Compare a performing HLG against PPH (No Div) FRE (No 2020 Divs) a rising FBU (no Div) and others
to see real value for investor dollar in HLG

I watched for far too long over 4 years ago before jumping in & haven't regretted it.
The rises & falls of the market across 2020 to date should have delivered a large comfort
reserve to carry any temporary SP retreats for those who took advantage of the chance.

I don't see too much SP retreat likely in current market conditions, but who knows
could be wrong

[Raz]

With all due respect mate I think there's several things you're overlooking.
1. Metrics (forward PE and dividend yield) are all a function of the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate and that's dramatically lower than last time this was over $6. This adds just over $1 by my calculations.
2. $50m cash on the balance sheet is about $35m more than average and this adds about 60 cents to fair value compared to the past.
3. Their genuine growth compared to FY19 and this has the potential to add about another 10 cps in earnings (worth about $1.50 to the share price if this growth happens...time will tell).
4. Online sales growth (the holy grail of retail), has been incredibly strong and is sector leading compared to its N.Z. peers. This is currently not being priced into the shares and I won't attempt to ascribe a value to it but its no small thing.
5. This is "anything but" yield at any price, in fact its probably the top yielding share on the NZX
6. 24 cent divvy just around the corner so the theoretical ex divvy price is really only $6.23.

I know this post won't change your mind having just sold some but maybe consider keeping what you have left ?

For those that don't know what Peat was saying earlier today in post #5302 TINA is an acronym for There is no alternative (to shares), TRINA is an acronym for "There really is no alternative" (to shares) and TRINFA is an acronym for...well...use your imagination ;)

Another fresh all time closing high today and I am very confident there will be many more to come.

Many thanks indeed for that link Balance. Awesome article :t_up:

All SPs are being rerated, I bumped a thread today with no interest because it was MCY, the point being... it closed today at $6, now in your mind compare the metrics and potential as alternative investments.

[winner69]

Momentum could take HLG to $10 in the next year ... the momentum is just so strong

No worries

[couta1]

With all due respect mate I think there's several things you're overlooking.
1. Metrics (forward PE and dividend yield) are all a function of the risk free 10 year Govt stock rate and that's dramatically lower than last time this was over $6. This adds just over $1 by my calculations.
2. $50m cash on the balance sheet is about $35m more than average and this adds about 60 cents to fair value compared to the past.
3. Their genuine growth compared to FY19 and this has the potential to add about another 10 cps in earnings (worth about $1.50 to the share price if this growth happens...time will tell).
4. Online sales growth (the holy grail of retail), has been incredibly strong and is sector leading compared to its N.Z. peers. This is currently not being priced into the shares and I won't attempt to ascribe a value to it but its no small thing.
5. This is "anything but" yield at any price, in fact its probably the top yielding share on the NZX
6. 24 cent divvy just around the corner so the theoretical ex divvy price is really only $6.23.

I know this post won't change your mind having just sold some but maybe consider keeping what you have left ?

For those that don't know what Peat was saying earlier today in post #5302 TINA is an acronym for There is no alternative (to shares), TRINA is an acronym for "There really is no alternative" (to shares) and TRINFA is an acronym for...well...use your imagination ;)

Another fresh all time closing high today and I am very confident there will be many more to come.

Many thanks indeed for that link Balance. Awesome article :t_up: Its a great long term hold at the right price and remember i held my large lot for two and a half yrs before selling, probably would still be holding if it wasn't for facing a perfect storm situation when Covid come along and the fact they decided not to pay a divvy was the final straw for me, by that time my paper profits and a good chunk of capital had become scorched earth, I was a true long term holder of the stock with no plans on selling prior to that. The ones I sold yesterday were my daughters and a friends holding as my priority is to protect their capital, their average buy prices were $3.44 and $5.20 respectively plus divvies on top, will see how it goes but will probably deploy their monies into OCA.

[Waltzing]

we thought 5.50 lower range - 9.50 higher range if the chart keeps going as for the last 10 years. we took the 2020 little dive out of the chart.


Beagle BBB+ . update on trading is usually before dividend payment early december.

In 10 years time you wont event remember this years trading and investing. Its gone by in a flash and now its time to focus on the next potential crisis and now we know you wont know what it is or when.. Mass ejection from the sun and melt down of the grid? Now thats something we should be modelling.

If you can hedge your trades and investments and you wont be exposed to capital lose.

[Beagle]

Its a great long term hold at the right price and remember i held my large lot for two and a half yrs before selling, probably would still be holding if it wasn't for facing a perfect storm situation when Covid come along and the fact they decided not to pay a divvy was the final straw for me, by that time my paper profits and a good chunk of capital had become scorched earth, I was a true long term holder of the stock with no plans on selling prior to that. The ones I sold yesterday were my daughters and a friends holding as my priority is to protect their capital, their average buy prices were $3.44 and $5.20 respectively plus divvies on top, will see how it goes but will probably deploy their monies into OCA.

They'd get far better diversification, (arguably better returns) and proper professional management of their money in the Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin companies.
e.g. BRM total shareholder return in the last year 46% and your friends money is properly diversified http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/BRM/363400/335297.pdf
Marlin total shareholder return in the last year 41.5% http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/MLN/363401/335298.pdf
Kingfish total shareholder return in the last year 33.4% http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KFL/363399/335296.pdf

These days if friends ask me to recommend stocks for them I won't go there and simply direct them to one or a combination of the above funds. Its safer and better for them and me.

[winner69]

Those amazing metrics psoted yesterday put HLG in good light - ROCE, ROE, Cash Generation etc etc

One of the key drivers of that financial success is that for every $1 of stock they generate nearly $7.00 of Gross Margin. Thats a great return on their investment in stock (capital)

Briscoes manage just over $3 gross margin per $1 of stock / Warehouse Group about $2.00 and Kathmandu about $2.70

Easy to see who has the best cash generating and return on investment model eh .

[Beagle]

Those amazing metrics psoted yesterday put HLG in good light - ROCE, ROE, Cash Generation etc etc

One of the key drivers of that financial success is that for every $1 of stock they generate nearly $7.00 of Gross Margin. Thats a great return on their investment in stock (capital)

Briscoes manage just over $3 gross margin per $1 of stock / Warehouse Group about $2.00 and Kathmandu about $2.70

Easy to see who has the best cash generating and return on investment model eh .

Doesn't seem to matter which metrics you look at or what yardsticks you use, or which other N.Z. retailers you compare them too, HLG looks very attractive indeed.

[couta1]

They'd get far better diversification and proper professional management of their money in the Kingfish, Barramundi and Marlin companies. Well they have done well so far and they don't have any fees to pay. PS-They won't go wrong as OCA holders ,im sure you'd agree.

[BlackPeter]

Doesn't seem to matter which metrics you look at or what yardsticks you use, or which other N.Z. retailers you compare them too, HLG looks very attractive indeed.

I don't think anybody contested HLG's attractiveness ;); While I think that they offer at this stage still fair value for money (assuming their EPS stays where it used to be the last three years or so), the question is - are they cheap enough to justify buying in at this stage?

Current EPS is between 45 and 50 cents. Will these earnings stick, or will they drop back down into the twenties (as they used to be between 2014 and 2017)? How much would the share be worth based on their (10 yrs) long term average EPS of 34 cents?

[Beagle]

You're completely ignoring the growth in recent years compared to earlier years...used to be ~ $200m a year turnover and now ~ $300m. I've already clearly articulated my thoughts on where earnings are heading this year mate. I've been topping up several times in recent weeks at up to $6.30. I have plenty now but won't rule out going a bit bigger.

[Snow Leopard]

The past is history and the future is what determines the value of a company, but you have to look further forward than the next result.

Buying now is for trend followers and rampers only.

[Beagle]

Well they have done well so far and they don't have any fees to pay. PS-They won't go wrong as OCA holders ,im sure you'd agree.

That's my biggest investment position and I agree it is highly likely OCA will outperform the market in the years ahead. That said KFL, BRM and MLN have all been seriously outperforming their relevant indices on a net after fees basis and their money is much better diversified and therefore lower risk. Anyway...enough said, you'll do whatever you think is best and this is all off topic anyway...

[Balance]

The past is history and the future is what determines the value of a company, but you have to look further forward than the next result.

Buying now is for trend followers and rampers only.

On the back of that comment, I have just bought a few more - just to prove a point when the sp hits $8.00.

[Balance]

I don't think anybody contested HLG's attractiveness ;); While I think that they offer at this stage still fair value for money (assuming their EPS stays where it used to be the last three years or so), the question is - are they cheap enough to justify buying in at this stage?

Current EPS is between 45 and 50 cents. Will these earnings stick, or will they drop back down into the twenties (as they used to be between 2014 and 2017)? How much would the share be worth based on their (10 yrs) long term average EPS of 34 cents?

Well worthwhile going back over the 2014 to 2017 period, BP because that period was not a great time for HLG - mistakes were made and the company had to spend up large and repositioned its brands. It also expanded into Australia where initial success was rather poor.

Since 2018, the repositioning has delivered excellent results and the latest update from the company bears very strong testimony to how well HLG is now positioned - especially with online sales.

Onwards and upwards.

[Waltzing]

market is undervaluing as Mr B has highlighted. unless Eps drops.

[winner69]

Wish the HLG share price would stop consistently underperforming the NZX - been doing it for a while now

Maybe the good times have past us by - after all earnings haven't grown over the duration of the chart (F20 v F18)


Wonder if HLG will give a earnings guidance at its ASM, so that we won’t have to read between the lines in their commentary about challenging times and come to our conclusions.

[Beagle]

LOL that post is classic Beagle bait. You might as well just have posted, come on Beagle bite me back with your counter argument. You know full well that you and I, when we bought in back in August 2016 at ~ $2.75, have enjoyed truly outstanding returns far ahead of the NZX50 and the above timeframe you have selected is rather convenient timing and probably a kickback against my comments in the ATM thread earlier today.

So just for a laugh...seeing as I am bored, lets go there. Sticking to the same timeframe in that ATM post earlier today wherein I suggested the growth story has changed, not the timeframe you have conveniently fabricated :p
Since mid March 2018 when I sold ATM has gone from ~ $13 to at the time of editing this $14.43 and paid shareholders not one single cent in dividends. Return is 14.43 / 13 = only 11% compared to the NZX50 up 59% a whopping underperformance of 48 % :eek2: WOW that's a very serious Ouch !!...just as well long term holders are sitting on massive outperformance from earlier years isn't it !

In mid March 2018 HLG was $4.60 and shareholders have enjoyed a total of $1.03 in fully imputed dividends since then (another 24 cents due on 15/12/20) and a share price increase of $1.83, total return $2.86 which on $4.60 is up 62% so it has outperformed the NZX 50 over that time frame and dramatically outperformed it since we bought in August 2016 at ~ $2.75.

I think its seriously underpriced relative to its peers and has excellent prospects going forward. I expect NZX50 outperformance to continue.

Looks like we're headed to over 70 cents US. You think that might help going forward ;)

[Waltzing]

South AUS is in lock down as everyone knows and new variant spreads quickly... this would only have to come here. Now there is on line sales but there are many months and quarters to go before there are blue skies and calms seas ahead ... for a while. Sales from on line will be interesting in the december update and then we will all known the true picture.

[Beagle]

We've been living with that risk for a while now mate, (as have other retailers). This still looks seriously underpriced on its metrics and prospects to the likes of WHS and BGR.

[Waltzing]

is that a hunt horn i can hear and those horses disappearing into the distance must be chasing a hound ... it appears im on foot back with the on lookers holding the reins of my horse in check...opera glasses at the ready.. handed down off course from a different time...flask in the hip pocket..

Aus jobs up..

[Beagle]

is that a hunt horn i can hear and those horses disappearing into the distance must be chasing a hound ... it appears im on foot back with the on lookers holding the reins of my horse in check...opera glasses at the ready.. handed down off course from a different time...flask in the hip pocket..

Aus jobs up..

Just for you mate. When Beagle's think they are on to something good they're not subtle about it :lol:, fast forward to 2:30 :) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pjz73dv9EEI

[pierre]

Another nice move upwards today to close at 650.

It will be interesting to see where the SP lands once it's XD on December 7.

[Waltzing]

many hounds on the trail... perfect!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YKV1dQAuAQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH6h1NaK6_E

[Beagle]

many hounds on the trail... perfect!


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_YKV1dQAuAQ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tH6h1NaK6_E

LOL - "Purrfect" Here's a video of keen HLG dividend hounds waiting for their massive dividend feed on 15 December. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOkYeb-vip0

Anyway...another fresh all time high today.

[nztx]

Today close SP $6.47 - with still 2 1/2 weeks until ex Div

Any guesses for SP the end of this coming week ? ;)

[Beagle]

$6.70 is my guess for next Friday but I would hasten to add that short term share price guessing is about as reliable a process as long term weather forecasting ;)

[winner69]

Probably expect a sales update first week in December and HLG goes ex-div on the 7th ....hmm

Maybe wise to be prepared for a double whammy to the shareprice

Just imagine a sales update like - sales up 4% on last year (recall they were up 12% after 8 weeks) and they mention stock shortages in lead up to Christmas and mention margins under pressure from high freight costs and unfavourable exchange rates.

That'll take 10% plus off the share price and then when it goes ex divie we could see a share price of $5.50 in a few weeks

Always pays to look at upsides (prob limited from here) amd the downsides (what I've mentioned would not surprise me)

[allfromacell]

I sat outside an Auckland Glassions today, the line to use the changing rooms was almost out the door and the cash register was going non-stop the 30 mins or so I was waiting. Just a constant line of people buying the latest summer range. Anecdote evidence doesn't mean much but it certainly makes me feel encouraged.

I didn't see any other clothing store in the mall experience anything like it, sadly that includes Hallensteins.

[Waltzing]

Thats good news, i walk past a Hallensteins store that i think probably needs to close. But its probably the only one that is not frequented i hope so...

remember women are not color blind ... i have a pair of oakley shorts and they are very cool but for some reason my personal trainer just says NO!

[Ferg]

i have a pair of oakley shorts and they are very cool but for some reason my personal trainer just says NO!
Are they skin coloured?

[jimdog31]

Probably expect a sales update first week in December and HLG goes ex-div on the 7th ....hmm

Maybe wise to be prepared for a double whammy to the shareprice

Just imagine a sales update like - sales up 4% on last year (recall they were up 12% after 8 weeks) and they mention stock shortages in lead up to Christmas and mention margins under pressure from high freight costs and unfavourable exchange rates.

That'll take 10% plus off the share price and then when it goes ex divie we could see a share price of $5.50 in a few weeks

Always pays to look at upsides (prob limited from here) amd the downsides (what I've mentioned would not surprise me)

Unfavourable exchange rates?!

As another poster has mentioned clothes are the easiest fmcg to ship as they condense down so well.

[winner69]

Unfavourable exchange rates?!

As another poster has mentioned clothes are the easiest fmcg to ship as they condense down so well.

One poster mentioned they had forward cover at what now are unfavourable rates

Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy

[CROESUS U.T.]

Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy
Even putting it through a wool press it would still be more than a M3 per tonne so for shipping it would be on size, only if airfreight probably on weight.(and yes as a freight forwarder I once used a wool press to condense some volumetric cargo:eek2:)

[jimdog31]

One poster mentioned they had forward cover at what now are unfavourable rates

Another poster mentioned even though clothes might condense down so well a load of cotton / denim is still pretty heavy

I admit, its not outside the realms of possibility they could use the exchange rate swing as a negative, however I think it would be a stretch for them to use that as a factor.

Even if they had hedged at say 66c, thats roughly the same exchange rate compared to the same period in the previous year so it shouldnt be a factor.

I can tell you that retail is most definitely not slowing down. We are up turnover wise MoM close to 150% , and im hearing the good news (still) accross multiple retail sectors.

[winner69]

How listed retailers going recently:

Briscoes Homewares +12% (27/7-25/10)
Rebel sport +19% (27/7-25/10)

Red Sheds +8% (3/8-1/10)
Noel Leeming +9% (3/8-1/10)
Torpedo 7 +40% (3/8-1/10)

Kathmandu ‘trading mixed’ (1/8-12/7)

Hallensteins +11% (2/8-26/8) 8 weeks

So big question what’s Hallensteins growth been 17 weeks to end of November? Retail overall been booming ..but clothing maybe still a laggard.

Has the +11% for first 8 weeks got better for the 17 weeks ..or will it end up something like +6%.

[Getty]

Its summer now, so the nudists wont be buying any clothing...

[jimdog31]

How listed retailers going recently:

Briscoes Homewares +12% (27/7-25/10)
Rebel sport +19% (27/7-25/10)

Red Sheds +8% (3/8-1/10)
Noel Leeming +9% (3/8-1/10)
Torpedo 7 +40% (3/8-1/10)

Kathmandu ‘trading mixed’ (1/8-12/7)

Hallensteins +11% (2/8-26/8) 8 weeks

So big question what’s Hallensteins growth been 17 weeks to end of November? Retail overall been booming ..but clothing maybe still a laggard.

Has the +11% for first 8 weeks got better for the 17 weeks ..or will it end up something like +6%.

both Rebel and Torpedo7 have a high sales % in clothing ......

I’m going with north of 11% .

Shout you lunch if im wrong 😜

[dibble]

Its summer now, so the nudists wont be buying any clothing...

togs...undies...togs...undies nude....nude, you still have to get to the beach

[Getty]

A lot of nudie colonies are nowhere near the beach, but I take your point.

However, a lot of yobbos get thru summer with just 2 pairs of rugby shorts, and 3 or 4 singlets/tee shirts, from last year.
If it wasnt for their women buying them some undies for Xmas/birthday, they wouldnt even have those.

Not good for HLG business.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Retail sales data Sept quarter

Clothing etc sector sales up 40% on prev quarter

Wow ...and that period includes the first 2 months of HLG financial year

[Balance]

Stats NZ Retail sales data Sept quarter

Clothing etc sector sales up 40% on prev quarter

Wow ...and that period includes the first 2 months of HLG financial year

Stunning numbers really for retail and according to ASB, Dec quarter has been a boomer so far as well.

We could be in for a very pleasant surprise with HLG’s F21 sales, profits & dividends.

“NZ retail data yesterday posted the expected record-breaking recovery from Q2’s weakness, but it turns out the Q3 bounce was even stronger than expected at a whopping 28% for the quarter (+19% expected).

The strength was broad-based across industries and regions.

Early signs suggest this strong pace of retail momentum has continued into the December quarter, no doubt thanks in part to the hot housing market.”

[winner69]

and Aussies pretty keen buying stuff as well - esp Victorians and Glassons have a few key stores in Victoria - probably busy as

[Beagle]

stats nz retail sales data sept quarter

clothing etc sector sales up 40% on prev quarter

wow ...and that period includes the first 2 months of hlg financial year

Wow !!!!!!! That augers well for the December sales update coming and let's not forget that juicy 24 cent dividend next month. Happy days :t_up:

[jimdog31]

and Aussies pretty keen buying stuff as well - esp Victorians and Glassons have a few key stores in Victoria - probably busy as

There you go winner 👍

[winner69]

There you go winner 👍

..and share price heading to $7.50

[Balance]

Wow !!!!!!! That augers well for the December sales update coming and let's not forget that juicy 24 cent dividend next month. Happy days :t_up:

$6.55 ATH.

So let's do some sums and see what one gets when investing in HLG at $6.55 :

1. 24c fully imputed dividend so effective price is actually $6.31

2. Based upon F18 & F19 dividends of 44 cps (being 'normalized' years) = 7% pa at $6.31

3. Assuming sales increase of 10% for F21, expect dividend of at least 50c = 8% pa at $6.31

I would say that there will be financial advisors out there building income portfolios for clients who would be happy for 5% yield - implied sp = $10.00


Dreaming or are we on the way there?

[pierre]

$6.55 ATH.

So let's do some sums and see what one gets when investing in HLG at $6.55 :

1. 14c fully imputed dividend so effective price is actually $6.31

2. Based upon F18 & F19 dividends of 44 cps (being 'normalized' years) = 7% pa at $6.31

3. Assuming sales increase of 10% for F21, expect dividend of at least 50c = 8% pa at $6.31

I would say that there will be financial advisors out there building income portfolios for clients who would be happy for 5% yield - implied sp = $10.00


Dreaming or are we on the way there?

We're certainly heading in that direction - will be interesting to see whether we actually arrive at that destination.

(Note there's a typo in your point 1. - should be 24c dividend.)

[Beagle]

$6.55 ATH.

So let's do some sums and see what one gets when investing in HLG at $6.55 :

1. 24c fully imputed dividend so effective price is actually $6.31

2. Based upon F18 & F19 dividends of 44 cps (being 'normalized' years) = 7% pa at $6.31

3. Assuming sales increase of 10% for F21, expect dividend of at least 50c = 8% pa at $6.31

I would say that there will be financial advisors out there building income portfolios for clients who would be happy for 5% yield - implied sp = $10.00


Dreaming or are we on the way there?

Worth noting you are talking net yield. 50 cps (which looks like a fairly safe assumption to me) gives 69.44 cps gross. A 7.5% gross yield suggests to me that 69.44 / 0.075 = $9.26 is certainly not out of the question in terms of what still gives investors a solid 7.5% gross yield.

The risk apparent to me (for those who recently sold), is where else are you going to get a better yield than that and also one that might grow as Glassons Australia continues to grow ?

[winner69]

New ATH $6.65

Maybe $10 isn’t a pipe dream after all

[Beagle]

$10 Dreaming or are we on the way there?

I think we are on the way there. Looking past the short term I am optimistic about the brand value of Glassons and its ongoing strong growth in Australia. Such a big market, (more than 5x N.Z.) and market penetration so far is quite modest with sales slightly behind N.Z. so far...but that won't stay that way for much longer ;)

I think this is more than a yield story and much more than a trading range story and people who recently sold thinking the historical high of ~ $6.40 was where it would top out are going to be very surprised.

One thing is for sure. I am not selling !!

[Balance]

One thing is for sure. I am not selling !!

Couldn't resist - I bought a few more this morning.

[Beagle]

Couldn't resist - I bought a few more this morning.

I am fighting the urge to do a Couta1, maybe resistance is futile lol. (I already have a very fulsome position).

Perhaps its my imagination but it looks like liquidity and volumes are improving in recent times which if so, won't do their chances of inclusion in the NZX50 in due course any harm.

[Playa]

The share price in recent years has been quite cyclical, can you see further upside from here and would you consider it still a buy then at these levels?

[Beagle]

The share price in recent years has been quite cyclical, can you see further upside from here and would you consider it still a buy then at these levels?

Have you read the last 10 pages of this thread ? Asked and already answered by many on here !

[Getty]

The share price in recent years has been quite cyclical, can you see further upside from here and would you consider it still a buy then at these levels?

The best thing you could do is to give me your shares, in a custodial role, if they go down, I will give them back, if they go up, we can go halves on the price difference between today, and the date you nominate.
Is that fair?

[Playa]

I have now..thanks:)

[winner69]

I have now..thanks:)

What you think now .....lots of upside

[Playa]

What you think now .....lots of upside
I might have a small nibble I think

[see weed]

Bought some this morning for $6.49c and trade notification came through about 5 to 10 mins later, all good. Bought another lot over an hour ago for $6.60 and no trade notification. Are they (ASB) waiting for sp to drop so they can buy them at a cheaper rate and then sell them to me at $6.60 :confused::confused:.

[Getty]

There's Playa's and players.

Don't you lose your shirt in the home of The Brothers

[Waltzing]

normaly we buy at 4 and sell at 6..KMD is up also... happy holders of both until we are not holders ... yes if you want more of this stock you need to buy now before Mr B buys more of this BBB+

we are happy to have taken some of our profits yet again at just over 6... we seem to do this every few years...

[Beagle]

I might have a small nibble I think

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vTQo6bdBMxQ I wouldn't muck about...I might change my mind any minute and decide I want lots more :D

[Beagle]

normaly we buy at 4 and sell at 6.

That's a losing strategy now :D

[winner69]

I am fighting the urge to do a Couta1, maybe resistance is futile lol. (I already have a very fulsome position).

Perhaps its my imagination but it looks like liquidity and volumes are improving in recent times which if so, won't do their chances of inclusion in the NZX50 in due course any harm.

Careful now ...take a depth breath before you cash up your OCA to go the HLG all in way

You could easy become a Top 10 shareholder in HLG

Jeez even I hold heaps more than the Chairman ...maybe we need to get on the Bosrd

[Waltzing]

large vol today in hlg, over 120,000 , did not see if it was off market .

hang on i did not say we SOLD all our position Mr B... and if the news is good we will increase it again if the new range is higher..

Those profits moved off shore to a stock that may double in the next 3 years... now HLG may also double but we will have profited in exchange currency that is more use to us long term in europe.

Long term i believe NZ has huge ARGI potential but new food technology in Stockholm is very interesting.

Dont sell OCA yet!!!!

The finance minister just threw in the towel....

DISC: currently in the NZ portfolios we are holding some OCA, HLG , KMD ... other sectors.

[Beagle]

Careful now ...take a depth breath before you cash up your OCA to go the HLG all in way

You could easy become a Top 10 shareholder in HLG

Jeez even I hold heaps more than the Chairman ...maybe we need to get on the Bosrd

For what its worth extremely high conviction for me is 15% in any one stock. I believe its prudent and sensible to put limits and discipline's around one's enthusiasm because everyone needs checks and balances, myself included. This also recognizes that nobody knows the future with absolute clarity. I'm at 15% with HLG so unfortunately I have to stop buying.

[winner69]

For what its worth extremely high conviction for me is 15% in any one stock. I believe its prudent and sensible to put limits and discipline's around one's enthusiasm because everyone needs checks and balances, myself included. This also recognizes that nobody knows the future with absolute clarity. I'm at 15% with HLG so unfortunately I have to stop buying.

So you probably be selling some soon to avoid being overweight HLG as price approaches goes past $7.50 towards $10

Percy would say let winners run ..no matter what the portfolio weighting

[Beagle]

So you probably be selling some soon to avoid being overweight HLG as price approaches goes past $7.50 towards $10

Percy would say let winners run ..no matter what the portfolio weighting

Definitely a school of thought that says that's a good strategy. For what its worth I am happy to let high conviction positions, (which I think have heaps of potential), run up to 20% before rebalancing e.g. OCA at 17.7% at today's closing price. I'm certainly not pretending my strategy is better than anyone else's but my one passes my "sleep well" test.

[Waltzing]

i was chatting with a broker manager the other day and the laugh was get back office stuff done as quickly as possible because with global debt now going parabolic there will be another chance in the next 10 year to do it all over again..and of course free money is coming to cope with it all.... but here? it will only take one or two more "left field base balls" and the consumer is prehap just prehaps going to say my wallet is no longer open and im starting a veggi garden..that 3 new bikinis for this summer can wait..just saying chickens counting eggs..

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/11/23/economy/universal-basic-income-europe-pandemic/index.html

[winner69]

Thanks to MoF bit of grandstanding writing to Orr the NZD spiked to just on USD70 cents

That’s good for HLG and our quest for a 60 cent dividend.

[winner69]

First 8 weeks sales up 11% on last year

If after 17 weeks they say sales are up 15% on pcp then the last 9 weeks has seen extraordinary growth post lockdowns etc

Can’t wait to see what that 11% is now.

[sb9]

First 8 weeks sales up 11% on last year

If after 17 weeks they say sales are up 15% on pcp then the last 9 weeks has seen extraordinary growth post lockdowns etc

Can’t wait to see what that 11% is now.

More like 20%+, pretty cool aye....

[see weed]

..and share price heading to $7.50
I will try and help it along. Just put in an order to buy 7000 at 6.62:)......6.65 now....6.67 don't like 6.66

[see weed]

BEAGLE, Is that you at 6.68:) Am now at 6.69:t_up:.........

[sb9]

BEAGLE, Is that you at 6.68:) Am now at 6.69:t_up:.........

You may have left it bit late and now you need to pay bit more...

[Waltzing]

well we need to wait an see what the impact of Aussi closure was? both stocks in retail up today...if market rewards that other stock winner(n) says im not to mention here than even with a standy as she goes the stock price will hold and perhaps move up. Hail Mary pass from the MOF and the currency up..

[Getty]

Since Playa has come into the game, the playing field has tilted somewhat..

[Waltzing]

a few more have joined by the look of it..

[see weed]

You may have left it bit late and now you need to pay bit more...
My first order was at open at 6.63 to be at the top of the que to grab the opening price of 6.62, but ASB for some reason takes more than 5 mins to put orders through:t_down:. In this day and age orders should go through within 30 secs.

[ba9]

Same here. I have had to change from 6.63 to 6.68 this morning. Have left it unchanged at 6.68 for now :)

[winner69]

My first order was at open at 6.63 to be at the top of the que to grab the opening price of 6.62, but ASB for some reason takes more than 5 mins to put orders through:t_down:. In this day and age orders should go through within 30 secs.

Outsmarted again seeweed ...you’ve got to be quicker than flash lightning to get HLG

[see weed]

Same here. I have had to change from 6.63 to 6.68 this morning. Have left it unchanged at 6.68 for now :)
Do you get the feeling they are putting there own orders through first to make you pay the higher price? And the same when selling any stock, they see ba9 and see weed coming along and think, we better sell before they do and make them sell at an even lower price;). If that is right, all I can say is, floody little baskets.

[see weed]

Outsmarted again seeweed ...you’ve got to be quicker than flash lightning to get HLG
So does that mean I will have to put my order in 20 to 30 mins before opening?

[see weed]

So does that mean I will have to put my order in 20 to 30 mins before opening?
I have a good idea and will try it tomorrow morning:eek2:.

[Balance]

I have a good idea and will try it tomorrow morning:eek2:.

Very successful old timer share broker (non trader) told me years ago - if a stock is good enough to buy at $1.00, it is good enough to buy at $1.02 - you are not buying to make 2% on the market but to make 50%.

[ba9]

Yes. Absolutely agree. Even though the systems are all computerized, the buy/sell orders are controlled (based on demand). (A lot of parameters are fed in)

I honestly do not believe that NZX can be that slow in this day and age. Also considering they have made changes recently after DDOS attack.

[Cyclical]

Crikey, $6.79. I guess the question now is how long before 7 bucks?

[winner69]

Crikey, $6.79. I guess the question now is how long before 7 bucks?

Friday ...but tomorrow Beagle starts buying again

Only 10% shy if $7.50

And we haven’t even had the sales update yet

[Waltzing]

with retail sales up for the country and aussi in the clear for the moment 31 march should be good news... our off shore transfers have risen already . As MMT comes into fashion in europe id have to say we are favouring europe retail very soon but NZ and Aus for the present.. We also are moving back into travel its going to be the next big reflation trade.

[see weed]

Friday ...but tomorrow Beagle starts buying again

Only 10% shy if $7.50

And we haven’t even had the sales update yet
Got sick of waiting payed 6.78 today. Why would Beagle buy tomorrow and not today. It might be on 6.90 tomorrow:t_up:.

[Beagle]

Friday ...but tomorrow Beagle starts buying again

Only 10% shy if $7.50

And we haven’t even had the sales update yet

I am fat and full already https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vURZqS2xMkI

[see weed]

Wow !!!!!!! That augers well for the December sales update coming and let's not forget that juicy 24 cent dividend next month. Happy days :t_up:
Two juicy divs next month 17c and 24c. Have you any TPW? ex div tomorrow:t_up:

[Beagle]

Two juicy divs next month 17c and 24c. Have you any TPW? ex div tomorrow:t_up:

GNE is my preferred stock in that sector mate and I am pretty fat and full with them as well :)

[smbunn]

How many people managed to buy when they were below $2 earlier this year? Wow, what a ride, HLG remains my best performing share over the past 9 years with great dividends.

[nztx]

Holy Cow -- six dollar eighty five close - folks ;)

[winner69]

Holy Cow -- six dollar eighty five close - folks ;)

Must be an all time high

Maybe 7 bucks on Friday

[DarkHorse]

Glassons Australia CEO just bought c$300K worth; a few days ago Glassons NZ CEO c$130K and HLG group COO c$160K

I particularly like to see insider buying when it's either large, execs or several people...in this case it's the trifecta :)

[Balance]

Glassons Australia CEO just bought c$300K worth; a few days ago Glassons NZ CEO c$130K and HLG group COO c$160K

I particularly like to see insider buying when it's either large, execs or several people...in this case it's the trifecta :)


And Australia CEO bought at $6.48!

What a resounding vote of confidence in the company!

[Baa_Baa]

Glassons Australia CEO just bought c$300K worth; a few days ago Glassons NZ CEO c$130K and HLG group COO c$160K

I particularly like to see insider buying when it's either large, execs or several people...in this case it's the trifecta :)


It's certainly comforting, that the insiders are buying into cyclical highs, like what do they know that others don't (but some more astute amongst us speculate on) it does suggest a re-rate higher is expected. I do think it's been an incredibly trying year for all businesses, so good to see HLG come through it stronger than ever.

[Jantar]

The ROI at this price is still worth pursuing, but is now being matched by HGH and NWF.

[tommy_d]

My first order was at open at 6.63 to be at the top of the que to grab the opening price of 6.62, but ASB for some reason takes more than 5 mins to put orders through:t_down:. In this day and age orders should go through within 30 secs.

might have to switch to sharesies ;)
regardless of other pros and cons, limit orders hit the tape pretty quickly

[winner69]

The words Custodian of Employee Share Scheme appear a lot in those recent disclosures

[Waltzing]

we are blaming MR B and his BBB+ rating for causing this momentum run that only really got going after he more purchased shares back at 4 dollars. That was the day to start the buying. we are happy we sold most down as our overseas travel stocks have started the same process yesterday. Business class travel might be more expensive in 2022 - 23.

[BlackPeter]

Must be an all time high

Maybe 7 bucks on Friday

Unlikely if $6.85 is an all time high as you say :p;

[Jantar]

Unlikely if $6.85 is an all time high as you say :p; Looking at the depth it could be $7.00 today.

[sb9]

Looking at the depth it could be $7.00 today.

Getting there 6.96 currently and with USD cross rate just hit 70c, who know how far this might go...

[Beagle]

Speaking of 7, I see we are up over U.S.70 cents today. That's a pretty useful tailwind to margins.

[see weed]

Outsmarted again seeweed ...you’ve got to be quicker than flash lightning to get HLG
Got in early today at 6.85:).

[see weed]

Looking at the depth it could be $7.00 today.
I will help it along $7 soon:t_up:

[see weed]

I just took out the 9000 at $7:t_up: $7.10c anyone

[nztx]

$7.00 level broken through this morning - $7.01 currently

[Balance]

$7.00 level broken through this morning - $7.01 currently

Closing at yet another ATH.

Now, just allow yourself a moment to imagine what the sp will be if it gets into the NZX50 index next month!

$8.50?

[Beagle]

Closing at yet another ATH.

Now, just allow yourself a moment to imagine what the sp will be if it gets into the NZX50 index next month!

$8.50?

LOL thanks mate you made my day. That's a very pleasant way to end a tough day. The chart looks beautiful with nothing but bright blue sky ahead.
You never know do you. ;) Sooner or later that index inclusion will happen, if its not in December it might be next quarter or sometime later in 2021. Good things take time.
In the meantime there's the 24 cent fully imputed dividend to enjoy next month and I forecast another 24 cents divvy in April, (could be even higher), and 26-30 cps divvy in Christmas 2021. The ol saying "well positioned" springs readily to mind :) I hope you have heaps like I do.

[Waltzing]

Many thanks for pushing it up... gosh

[sb9]

Closing at yet another ATH.

Now, just allow yourself a moment to imagine what the sp will be if it gets into the NZX50 index next month!

$8.50?

At that price level, that’s more than 100% rerun on my lot in less than 6 months, not to mention dividends on top of that. Who would’ve thought a clothing retailer could deliver such fab returns!!!

[Balance]

LOL thanks mate you made my day. That's a very pleasant way to end a tough day. The chart looks beautiful with nothing but bright blue sky ahead.
You never know do you. ;) Sooner or later that index inclusion will happen, if its not in December it might be next quarter or sometime later in 2021. Good things take time.
In the meantime there's the 24 cent fully imputed dividend to enjoy next month and I forecast another 24 cents divvy in April, (could be even higher), and 26-30 cps divvy in Christmas 2021. The ol saying "well positioned" springs readily to mind :) I hope you have heaps like I do.

Never enough when a stock runs like HLG, Beagle. But one must be circumspect about being too exposed to any one single stock.

Did buy some more 2 days ago after W69 posted the outstanding retail sales numbers.

[Beagle]

Never enough when a stock runs like HLG, Beagle. But one must be circumspect about being too exposed to any one single stock.

Did buy some more 2 days ago after W69 posted the outstanding retail sales numbers.

Nice timing, well done !

Bring on the sales update in early December, the annual meeting on 9th and of course the dividend on 15 December.

Anyone on here planning on attending the annual meeting ? Maybe you could ask them what their plans are for their $50m cash mountain ? (worth 83 cents per share as at 1 August 2020).

[winner69]

Harvey Norman reporting huge sales growth last few months in AU and NZ and on radio this morning apparently punters are going more casual these days and buying up track pants and tee shirts and other casual wear big time

Maybe that 11% growth after 8 weeks has grown to 15% after 17 weeks

[Waltzing]

hang on winner(n) we get told off for mentioning KMD and now your saying vetements is on the same buy list as TV to lounge and .. all other stuff..ameublement

you might be right but its summer and while filles may shop in summer i dont know if garcons do...

[winner69]

Good sign that selling prices (margins) are higher this Black Friday Sale

Last year jeans $29.99 ..this year 2 for $79.99

And the super duper real cheap stuff appears to be clearance of old stock ...things I looked at only in few sizes and I’m not a 28

[Beagle]

Still trading on a FY21 gross forecast yield of ~ 10% (based on 50 cents fully imputed = 69.44 cents gross / $6.90) and on top of that this coming week is your last opportunity to write the size of your own Christmas bonus with their 24 cent dividend due to be paid on 15 December. (Last day HLG trades cum the dividend is this coming Friday 4 December).

[peat]

Still trading on a FY21 gross forecast yield of ~ 10% (based on 50 cents fully imputed = 69.44 cents gross / $6.90) and on top of that this coming week is your last opportunity to write the size of your own Christmas bonus with their 24 cent dividend due to be paid on 15 December. (Last day HLG trades cum the dividend is this coming Friday 4 December).

thx for pointing out the ex day Beag! I found it hard to find in any of their reporting. they only talked about pay date.

[iceman]

thx for pointing out the ex day Beag! I found it hard to find in any of their reporting. they only talked about pay date.

Always the easiest and quickest place to look, I find https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

p.s. I have no idea how I gave myself a thumbs down for this post :-) :-)

[Waltzing]

would anyone who is a qualified chartist "Karl was" like to paint the dots on this one...lower and upper tracks re Carter B.

[winner69]

would anyone who is a qualified chartist "Karl was" like to paint the dots on this one...lower and upper tracks re Carter B.

Theres only one chart to look at ....and its heading to 10 bucks

[Waltzing]

i cant see a thing on that chart image... lovely rainbow colours though...:ohmy:

and im looking for a real chart like the ones from the 1980's ... re : O'Neil. They dont make them like they used to. Bit like modern accounting solutions that are KFC.

iYahoo is just not a safe platform nor is bloomberg i think they get hacked.

i agree i certainly could go 10 but HLG chart doesnt ever go in a nice upward swing.

[winner69]

i cant see a thing on that chart image... lovely rainbow colours though...:ohmy:

and im looking for a real chart like the ones from the 1980's ... re : O'Neil. They dont make them like they used to. Bit like modern accounting solutions that are KFC.

iYahoo is just not a safe platform nor is bloomberg i think they get hacked.

i agree i certainly could go 10 but HLG chart doesnt ever go in a nice upward swing.

Didn't that O'Neil guy like cup and saucer patterns or similar

the point and figure chart at the moment looks really impressive .... that to a certain extent shows 'swings'

[peat]

as we are in blue sky with HLG, the best a chart can tell you is that there is good support around $6 level now.
some EW theorists might say we are in the 5th of the 3rd , and hence major momentum has been experienced but this could now be waning as a corrective 4th wave could take shape. Even as an EW theorist I wouldnt put too much stock in that view for trading purposes. However I am not adding just enjoying.
12122

You dont need to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.....

[Waltzing]

well he might have been a tea drinker while looking at those very complex charts... whole departments out the back.

the highs are compressing in time which tends to make us think it can squeeze higher into a new high. Math matters? and if it does it still means it can move into new swings. The low interest environment might simply means people ignore range and just panic buy for dividend. We think that is what MR B is Betting on.

Structural constraints in the market mean money is forced into rivers and that also means the like of retirement sector may not have even seen it peak yet for a long time.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Fundamentals are all that matter, Profit growth and dividend yield don't care about witch doctors analysing goat entrails.

[Waltzing]

dont upset the chartists.. its not a good idea... and those charts can and often do determine buying patterns for the machines and there are a lot of machines out there.

In fact you would be surprised where some of those experts are housed. One is in hamilton and is a chip designer who runs a multi national that also caters for consulting on those machines. He is an Aussi.

[Snow Leopard]

HLG has peaked: back to the mid $6 range, divvy, rampers move, on low $6, peace & quiet.

You read it here first

:p

[winner69]

HLG has peaked: back to the mid $6 range, divvy, rampers move, on low $6, peace & quiet.

You read it here first

:p

Did cross my mind its a bit quiet here these days

[Getty]

dont upset the chartists.. its not a good idea... and those charts can and often do determine buying patterns for the machines and there are a lot of machines out there.

In fact you would be surprised where some of those experts are housed. One is in hamilton and is a chip designer who runs a multi national that also caters for consulting on those machines. He is an Aussi.

He would have to be living in the suburb of Chartwell then wouldn't he?
That would add some credibility.

[Balance]

HLG has peaked: back to the mid $6 range, divvy, rampers move, on low $6, peace & quiet.

You read it here first

:p

Garbage.

Stock taking breather to allow the perennially wrong Snow Leopard to lick his self-inflicted wounds (+ snow blindness). :D

[Getty]

Snow Leopard has got such a beautiful self regenerating coat, he doesn't need any garb.

[winner69]

Jeez .....Dominic from Westpac (the I am the greatest Dominic) says “ ...we are now forecasting that the NZD/USD exchange rate will rise to 74 cents.”

That’ll add a couple of % points to HLG margins .....2% of $340m is about $7m extra margin and flows through to bottom line

[Beagle]

Garbage.

Stock taking breather to allow the perennially wrong Snow Leopard to lick his self-inflicted wounds (+ snow blindness). :D

:lol: No wonder they're nearly extinct :lol:

Their half year ends today and i am really looking forward to the sales update in a few days time, the annual meeting on 9 December and the massive dividend feed on 15 December just in time for Christmas. Wouldn't it be a "real shame" if they did by some chance get NZX50 inclusion :D

[Balance]

:lol: No wonder they're nearly extinct :lol:

Their half year ends today and i am really looking forward to the sales update in a few days time, the annual meeting on 9 December and the massive dividend feed on 15 December just in time for Christmas. Wouldn't it be a "real shame" if they did by some chance get NZX50 inclusion :D

SKT looks like it is on the way out of NZX50 - so who will replace it?

Rather excitable as we will find out next week.

[Waltzing]

" suburb of Chartwell " its got a big shopping centre and an empty movie complex...

im not allowed to say!

not me though... another chap..

SKT will be very disappointed ... all that hard work to be replaced by a coat hanger.... terrible ... MR B will be happy....

this chart is compressing showing a strong momentum upward swing. It will need poor numbers to slow the compression. Once a stock moves into a compression pattern it can break out to the upside if the growth pattern persists.

Fashion matters!

[Cyclical]

" suburb of Chartwell " its got a big shopping centre and an empty movie complex...

im not allowed to say!

not me though... another chap..

Every time I go near the place, the wife and daughter try to get me to go to H&M to get me to do some proxy shopping for them...I wonder if they'll last there? I don't imagine HLG would be too upset if they didn't.

It's not I either...another chap...

[Balance]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00003/strong-retail-sales-in-november-on-back-of-singles-day-black-friday-cyber-monday.htm

Retail sales powering ahead.

[Greekwatchdog]

For Bars Preview for Index change. I know some on here are hopeful..
S&P/NZX Index Insights
A Quiet Finish to a Year of Change


We pick that there will be no changes for the upcoming S&P/NZX December 2020 quarterly index review. Official outcomes
of the review will be announced close of market Friday, 11 December 2020, with an effective date close of market Friday, 18
December 2020.
A busy year: however, no changes expected for final review
The 2020 year to date has seen three new constituents enter the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 indices, namely Napier Port (NPH), Serko
(SKO) and Pacific Edge (PEB), each replacing Gentrack (GTK), NZ Refining (NZR) and Metlifecare (MET) respectively. Infratil (IFT)
entered the large cap index (replacing SKYCITY [SKC]), and Summerset (SUM) entered the S&P/NZX 20 index, replacing Air New
Zealand (AIR). However, for the last review of the year (December 2020), our calculations indicate that there will be no constituent
changes to the benchmark indices.
Figure 1. December 2020 Review: The Forsyth Barr Pick
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no change expected n/a
S&P/NZX 50 no change expected n/a
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no change expected n/a
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis
The current status
Figure 2 outlines the current rankings for inclusion/exclusion for the S&P/NZX 50 indices. We, at this stage, see no obvious near term
changes ahead. The six-month average market cap automatic entry level to the benchmark index is currently $413m.
The year has seen a large number of share placements (we calculate ~30x). We take the opportunity to remind index followers that
for a placement to be eligible for "Accelerated Implementation", the materiality threshold is 5% of totals shares and US$150m.
Otherwise the placement is recognised at the next subsequent quarterly index review.
Figure 2. Current Rankings for S&P/NZX 50 Index Inclusion/Exclusion
Ranking Code Current status 6-mth average price 6-mth average market cap
42 PEB S&P/NZX 50 Member $0.58 $420.51m
43 FSF S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.00 $418.16m
44 (entry level) ANZ S&P/NZX 50 Member $20.29 $413.11m
45 RBD S&P/NZX 50 Member $12.10 $377.31m
46 VGL S&P/NZX 50 Member $1.56
47 NPH S&P/NZX 50 Member $3.57
48 SKO S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.12
49 SKT S&P/NZX 50 Member $0.15
50 THL S&P/NZX 50 Member $2.13 $258.08m
51 HLG $4.66 $222.43m
52 ERD $3.79 $204.62m
53 BGP $3.65 $186.59m
54 WHS $2.17 $172.97m
55 CVT $3.08 $165.47m
56 (exit level) AFT $4.73 $153.37m
57 TRA $2.32 $151.05m
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, ranking 44: automatic entry level, ranking 56: automatic exit level, S&P DJI restricts publication of index constituent information to 10% for any given ind

[BeeBop]

As of today, HLG is sitting at a market cap of $412m...It is more than just the market cap but they are in quite a different position to the 6-month average.

[Beagle]

I haven't been expecting an inclusion at this December review date but am quite hopeful for inclusion in a future review date possibly in 2021.
Meanwhile I expect a strong sales update in the next few days and see the currency is well over U.S. 70 cents so I expect that will provide useful gross margin tailwinds going forward.

[Balance]

For Bars Preview for Index change. I know some on here are hopeful..
S&P/NZX Index Insights
A Quiet Finish to a Year of Change


We pick that there will be no changes for the upcoming S&P/NZX December 2020 quarterly index review. Official outcomes
of the review will be announced close of market Friday, 11 December 2020, with an effective date close of market Friday, 18
December 2020.

Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, ranking 44: automatic entry level, ranking 56: automatic exit level, S&P DJI restricts publication of index constituent information to 10% for any given ind

Thank you, Greekwatchdog.

Much appreciated.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU2012/S00003/strong-retail-sales-in-november-on-back-of-singles-day-black-friday-cyber-monday.htm

Retail sales powering ahead.

The latest Retail NZ Sales Index, shows that spending through November remained strong, and that total spending since March is now ahead of last year.


“The Retail NZ Sales Index for November reports that spending through the month was around 25.7 per cent higher than last year, and that total spending since March is now 3.4 per cent higher than for the same nine months last year,”

wow.

[Greekwatchdog]

No problem. Good Luck to you all on this.

[winner69]

........

Meanwhile I expect a strong sales update in the next few days and see the currency is well over U.S. 70 cents so I expect that will provide useful gross margin tailwinds going forward.

Great announcement a certainty --- should get punters excited --- 8 bucks here we come

Might even be tomorrow - the update that is

[sb9]

Great announcement a certainty --- should get punters excited --- 8 bucks here we come

Might even be tomorrow - the update that is

Last year trading update was given on 4th Dec, so we may as well see an update tomorrow which coincides to be last day to get in to be eligible for upcoming 24c divvy.

[nztx]

Last trading day before going X Div on 7th is tomorrow (4 Dec)

SP tomorrow could be interesting

Imagine if the trading update is also announced tomorrow ;)

SP rise could take out the ceiling panels ..

[Lion_graf]

I shouldn't really look at depth and providing it is a very positive announcement that will all change...but there is plenty of sellers...

[Balance]

I shouldn't really look at depth and providing it is a very positive announcement that will all change...but there is plenty of sellers...

Just like there were plenty of sellers at $5.00 and $6.00.

Sellers have an uncanny habit of melting away whenever there's a positive announcement as well.

The same of course with buyers who mysteriously disappear when there is a negative announcement!

Depth on NZX means bugger all - unlike the ASX.

[nztx]

Probably some of the ones who sell - do so only to find things running further upwards & many wind up buying back in so they don't miss out .. ;)

[Davexl]

Just like there were plenty of sellers at $5.00 and $6.00.

Depth on NZX means bugger all - unlike the ASX.

Could you elaborate a little Balance. I use depth a lot for larger trades on NZX but apart from the off-market trades what am I missing? TIA...

[Balance]

Could you elaborate a little Balance. I use depth a lot for larger trades on NZX but apart from the off-market trades what am I missing? TIA...

Have edited posting. :)

Also, brokers actively 'work' big orders behind the scene away from the market depth. These end up as crossings.

[nztx]

$7 door being knocked on

[Beagle]

Today is the last day HLG trades cum it's fully imputed 24 cent dividend to be paid on 15 December.

I calculate the theoretical ex divvy price on Monday to be $6.96 - 0.24 = $6.72.

Updated dividend yield forecast for FY21 at theoretical ex divvy price.
Based on 50 cents fully imputed dividends for FY21, (remember they has ~ $50m in the bank as at last balance date = 83 cents per share so are very liquid) that's 50 / 0.72 = 69.44 cps gross / $6.72 = 10.33% gross estimated yield for FY21 I reckon that's compelling when you consider the ultra low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future, the excellent growth prospects Glassons has in Australia and the companies very strong balance sheet and liquidity position as well as strong growth in sales which underwrites their ability to sustain that dividend. Currency tailwinds are also very favorable.

[Waltzing]

Hear ye Hear ye!

Last Day Again!!!!

Based on the last 3 year they are late with the market update news release...

[winner69]

No update today - maybe leaving to ASM day

If the update is not up to market expectations and the share price collapses at least the dividend will soften the blow a bit

[Waltzing]

Winner(n) , shocking post!!! :D Mr B wont be happy, ive noticed there are some on this public forum who take it very seriously..

Ill no doubt get another red one from Mc Duff or someone... :D

The great charm of this stock if its price swings.

[see weed]

Today is the last day HLG trades cum it's fully imputed 24 cent dividend to be paid on 15 December.

I calculate the theoretical ex divvy price on Monday to be $6.96 - 0.24 = $6.72.

Updated dividend yield forecast for FY21 at theoretical ex divvy price.
Based on 50 cents fully imputed dividends for FY21, (remember they has ~ $50m in the bank as at last balance date = 83 cents per share so are very liquid) that's 50 / 0.72 = 69.44 cps gross / $6.72 = 10.33% gross estimated yield for FY21 I reckon that's compelling when you consider the ultra low interest rate environment for the foreseeable future, the excellent growth prospects Glassons has in Australia and the companies very strong balance sheet and liquidity position as well as strong growth in sales which underwrites their ability to sustain that dividend. Currency tailwinds are also very favorable.
I was thinking the same.....good yield. You have until 5pm to get your full, for 24c div. I am going to predict the trading update will come out on or after 7/12/20 and it will be good. The sp will go up 50c on good news and then settle down again. If I am wrong, then will have to go back to Viaduct basin and down another doz. oysters:t_up:

[winner69]

Winner(n) , shocking post!!! :D Mr B wont be happy, ive noticed there are some on this public forum who take it very seriously..

Ill no doubt get another red one from Mc Duff or someone... :D

The great charm of this stock if its price swings.

Hey waltz... I didn’t say it will be a disappointing update ....just what may happen IF it is not to market expectaions.

You hoping for another price swing?

[Waltzing]

well we are hoping but im not confident. retail sales being what it is and we have a Bob each way and still invested in retail.

Though we have moved to offshore travel..

I have to whatch what i post here else we get lots of red ones!!!

Actual we love red ones!!!!


https://www.amstel.com

cant wait to have a local one to 2 when we return in 2022.

[Beagle]

I was thinking the same.....good yield. You have until 5pm to get your full, for 24c div. I am going to predict the trading update will come out on or after 7/12/20 and it will be good. The sp will go up 50c on good news and then settle down again. If I am wrong, then will have to go back to Viaduct basin and down another doz. oysters:t_up:

My shiny crystal ball is saying the same thing, surely they both can't be wrong :)

[winner69]

well we are hoping but im not confident. retail sales being what it is and we have a Bob each way and still invested in retail.

Though we have moved to offshore travel..

I have to whatch what i post here else we get lots of red ones!!!

Actual we love red ones!!!!


https://www.amstel.com

cant wait to have a local one to 2 when we return in 2022.

I can see why you like the 'swings' in HLG share price - they are becoming more frequent and the amplitude is increasing

Regular gains of 107%. 70%, 134%, 163% and 157% in reasonable short time frames are pretty inviting eh.

You just might get another go one day soon.

[winner69]

NZSA sort of hinting HLG should repay wage subsidies or not pay recent dividends?

They say that “Directors are obligated to act in the best interests of the company.” and the wage subsidy provided short-term financial stability.

But then they make the comment “For a consumer-focused company like Hallenstein Glassons, reputation risk may also be a longer-term ‘best interests’ consideration for the Board. In that context, we note the company paid an interim dividend of 15 cents per share in September 2020 and will pay a final dividend of 24 cents per share in December 2020 (totalling $26 million for both payments).

Hmm

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NZSA sort of hinting HLG should repay wage subsidies or not pay recent dividends?

They say that “Directors are obligated to act in the best interests of the company.” and the wage subsidy provided short-term financial stability.

But then they make the comment “For a consumer-focused company like Hallenstein Glassons, reputation risk may also be a longer-term ‘best interests’ consideration for the Board. In that context, we note the company paid an interim dividend of 15 cents per share in September 2020 and will pay a final dividend of 24 cents per share in December 2020 (totalling $26 million for both payments).

Hmm

the transcript isnt up yet, but I recall Prime Minister Ardern getting asked about wage subsidy paybacks at a press conference last week (early this week?) and she said it was intended to primarily be to save jobs, and that is exactly what it did.

Their is a large and obvious moral hazard in forcing/shaming companies to pay back the subsidy, as you can sure as hell guarantee that in the event of another lockdown companies will be far more likely to immediately make people redundant (instead of keeping them employed) if a precedent is set that any help the government provided to keep employees on the books is retroactively asked to be repaid at a later time.

[iceman]

NZSA sort of hinting HLG should repay wage subsidies or not pay recent dividends?

They say that “Directors are obligated to act in the best interests of the company.” and the wage subsidy provided short-term financial stability.

But then they make the comment “For a consumer-focused company like Hallenstein Glassons, reputation risk may also be a longer-term ‘best interests’ consideration for the Board. In that context, we note the company paid an interim dividend of 15 cents per share in September 2020 and will pay a final dividend of 24 cents per share in December 2020 (totalling $26 million for both payments).

Hmm

Wow Winner. Wait for the avalanche coming your way from the likes of Beagle and Balance that are all in favour of corporate welfare when it suits them. Some valued posters have left the forum after the abuse they received for daring to disagree on this issue with the moral superiors ! I'm already running back to my den to hibernate.

[Beagle]

NZSA sort of hinting HLG should repay wage subsidies or not pay recent dividends?

They say that “Directors are obligated to act in the best interests of the company.” and the wage subsidy provided short-term financial stability.

But then they make the comment “For a consumer-focused company like Hallenstein Glassons, reputation risk may also be a longer-term ‘best interests’ consideration for the Board. In that context, we note the company paid an interim dividend of 15 cents per share in September 2020 and will pay a final dividend of 24 cents per share in December 2020 (totalling $26 million for both payments).

Hmm

Ecclesiastes 12 v 12 springs very readily to mind.

[winner69]

Wow Winner. Wait for the avalanche coming your way from the likes of Beagle and Balance that are all in favour of corporate welfare when it suits them. Some valued posters have left the forum after the abuse they received for daring to disagree on this issue with the moral superiors ! I'm already running back to my den to hibernate.

The NZSA representative might bring it up at the ASM to get the Boards view .. that could be interesting.

The NZSA didn’t specifically say yes or no ...but the ‘reputational risk’ comment was interesting.

Pity it’s not an online virtual meeting.

I did email them saying I was donating my divie to a charity as a matter of principle. Got no reply.

[Beagle]

Wow Winner. Wait for the avalanche coming your way from the likes of Beagle and Balance that are all in favour of corporate welfare when it suits them. Some valued posters have left the forum after the abuse they received for daring to disagree on this issue with the moral superiors ! I'm already running back to my den to hibernate.

The argument is already over as far as I am concerned. Even a politically insensitive dog like me knows there's no point barking any more if there's nothing worth barking about. I'm sure you'll be "shocked" to learn that I am very comfortable with their decision :p
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies

[bull....]

NZSA sort of hinting HLG should repay wage subsidies or not pay recent dividends?

They say that “Directors are obligated to act in the best interests of the company.” and the wage subsidy provided short-term financial stability.

But then they make the comment “For a consumer-focused company like Hallenstein Glassons, reputation risk may also be a longer-term ‘best interests’ consideration for the Board. In that context, we note the company paid an interim dividend of 15 cents per share in September 2020 and will pay a final dividend of 24 cents per share in December 2020 (totalling $26 million for both payments).

Hmm

as myself hinted a while back to much abuse it is a reputational risk for a consumer facing brand. duke at briscoes realised this and paid it back pretty quick

[winner69]

Clothing sector sales on fire in Oz ....October Retail Sales ex ABS ... Westpac report “The majority of store types saw increased turnover in October. The strongest growth was in clothing (6.6%),.......”

Even better - if footwear and other stuff are stripped out clothing itself up 10.6%


Westpac use seasonally adjusted data

[Waltzing]

Thank you for the post winner (n) . We dont check Aussi stats often enough. Europe stats take time. Govt stats are not specific enough and sector stats are best double checked direct.

Demographic and state stats, break down by state and then behaviour of the shoppers in a state.

Note: Victoria numbers were up over 5%.

All States.

Pivot tables ..Retail..in Millions.
AUS
2019;
OCT = 2126
2020;
OCT = 2083

2020 Quarterly % Variances.

March = -11
June = -22
Sep = + 35

[winner69]

I reckon covid caused HLG sales to drop about $15m in the April/July period (the last 4 months of F20)

Wonder how much of this they have recovered in August/November period? Have things got back on track to more normal times (underlying growth) or were the bulk of those sales lost forever?

We should have an idea tomorrow or Tuesday

[Waltzing]

Yes winner(n) we await and wish all holders good numbers for xmas.

Retail Sales in Aus usually jump up by a good margin in december.

[nztx]

Out of interest - any guesses where HLG's SP would be at if it was dual listed in Oz ? ;)

Take into account just less than 60 mil shares
A reasonably tight Share register
A Retail track record in a volatile sector beaten by few if any others
A Dividend track record fully imputed similarly beaten by few if any others
Low P/E compared to others in a rising market
A Survivor which has beaten off others in Oz & in sector where many others have fallen over in their droves
or come cap in hand for large Stakeholder Cap raises (None of that with HLG)