HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Habits]

I give it one shot to put you on the right track:

Government gave money to HLG who gave money to staff.


Now, if HLG were to do the right thing then:

HLG would give money [back] to government and staff keep money given to them.


Disc: I am having first slice of freshly delivered XMAS log roll and nobody is taking that away from me.

Yes I think I agree with that. If you want to use the log roll example like you're tucking in (which sounds rather trumpian) then look at WHS and the chain of events.. WHS shd did not get a slice of the income.. case won and closed imo

[Habits]

I disagree with witchhunts however why did Freigtways (freightways information services ltd), an essential service company claim over 330k of wages subsidy. Please correct this if FIS is not a subsidiary. Other organizations which claimed for a limited part of the operation that was affected were told they could not if the overall business was not impacted

[Beagle]

Hard to believe people are still, after all this time and fierce debate relitigating this old chestnut. HLG's position which really is quite simple to understand.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies

At the time nobody knew how bad the pandemic was going to be or how long it would last. There was either going to be widespread layoffs or the Govt was going to give support such that instead of a truly dramatic rise in unemployment, companies could be in a position to get going quickly again by paying part of the cost of staff to keep them on.
In effect it was cheaper for the Govt to make part payments to keep people employed that make massive unemployment payments.

Do we ask people who were unemployed to repay their benefit when they get a well paying job ? I rest my case. Not worth me getting my fur matted up again and I suggest not worth others getting hot under the collar about. Time to move on. Peace and goodwill to all this Christmas season.

[Balance]

Hard to believe people are still, after all this time and fierce debate relitigating this old chestnut. HLG's position which really is quite simple to understand.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122889993/hallenstein-glasson-profit-falls-4-to-27m-no-plans-to-repay-wage-subsidies

An itch which needed scratching but has now turned into a festering sore needing treatment for some posters, Beagle? They need to get a life before the sore becomes septic.

It is indeed the season of goodwill, so let’s wish them a merry time.

[Snow Leopard]

An itch becoming a sore for some?

Poor Beagle: Definitely a Pavlovian Dog.


Disc: The mushrooms & other trimming on the XMAS log roll (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4494-HLG-Hallenstein-Glasson&p=864394&viewfull=1#post864394) were made from pavlova.

[winner69]

Your $24m H1 npat forecast seems reasonable

Of that about $5m would have come from a catch up on all the sales that were lost during lock downs (I reckon 80% recovered)

So real / underlying / normalised or whatever growth is $16m to $19m

I’ve assessed HLG lost about $14m of sales during lockdown. Lost margin $8.4m offset by wage subsidies. No impact on profit in F20.

A fair chunk of those lost sales have been recovered post lockdown (Thats why sales are up 15% YTD) - let’s say the recovery of lost sales has contributed $5m (after tax) to profit this financial year (this would be in your $24m number)

Conclusion - it seems HLG have benefited financially (ie made money) by about $5m (maybe even more) from the wage subsidy.

[Jantar]

I’ve assessed HLG lost about $14m of sales during lockdown. Lost margin $8.4m offset by wage subsidies. No impact on profit in F20.

A fair chunk of those lost sales have been recovered post lockdown (Thats why sales are up 15% YTD) - let’s say the recovery of lost sales has contributed $5m (after tax) to profit this financial year (this would be in your $24m number)

Conclusion - it seems HLG have benefited financially (ie made money) by about $5m (maybe even more) from the wage subsidy. The wage subsidy went to workers, not the company. Would you prefer that HLG sacked the workers to save money during the lockdown and re-employed them afterwards? That would have saved the company the 20% they had to pay the workers, and then they still would have made those post lockdown sales resulting in even more profits.

HLG met the threshold for claiming the subsidy on behalf of their workers. It wasn't just a 30% drop in revenue during the lockdown, it was 100% drop.

[winner69]

The wage subsidy went to workers, not the company. Would you prefer that HLG sacked the workers to save money during the lockdown and re-employed them afterwards? That would have saved the company the 20% they had to pay the workers, and then they still would have made those post lockdown sales resulting in even more profits.

HLG met the threshold for claiming the subsidy on behalf of their workers. It wasn't just a 30% drop in revenue during the lockdown, it was 100% drop.

All well and good jantar

Did HLG have a disaster plan / business continuity plan which might have guided them through bad times, including lockdowns?

Nonetheless I suppose my point is that since lock down they have recovered extremely well and over March/November are well ahead of the game and they have made money from getting the wage subsidy. Other retailers have experienced this (making money from the subsidy) as well and decided the right thing to do was to to repay it. The wage subsidy was good to get at the time but as things recovered strongly they concluded they didn't really need it in the first place.

[Waltzing]

There should be not repayments until an accounting standard is implemented by the IRD in conjunction with the accounting society. It should remain on the balance sheet until the IRD takes the credit back after a smoothing of the last 5 years. It really is not a matter for anyone in the public except the IRD and the standards body. The idea is good and the implementation by the government is not so good.

Its a balance sheet issue not a moral one. The public have got it wrong and so has the minister of finance and the PM.

[peetter]

All well and good jantar

Did HLG have a disaster plan / business continuity plan which might have guided them through bad times, including lockdowns?

Nonetheless I suppose my point is that since lock down they have recovered extremely well and over March/November are well ahead of the game and they have made money from getting the wage subsidy. Other retailers have experienced this (making money from the subsidy) as well and decided the right thing to do was to to repay it. The wage subsidy was good to get at the time but as things recovered strongly they concluded they didn't really need it in the first place.

I doubt any company pre-covid had a disaster plan for Government mandated 100% business full stop nation wide. Your usual disaster recovery plans if you're not global company would be having warehouses/shops/infrastructure in differrent locations throughout the country. Or closing down stores that don't perform and consolidating to the better location as most of travel companies did now.

Returning subsidies makes no sense if business payed employees. That's what the subsidy was for. Couple loud mouths on FB and in media won't do anything about it as it's obvious most don't care and buy there anyways.

[BlackPeter]

Disc: I am having first slice of freshly delivered XMAS log roll and nobody is taking that away from me.

Eating and typing at the same time is a bad habit ... sticky fingers can do terrible things to keyboards :) but anyway - enjoy your early Christmas log roll before it melts away - or do you live these days in colder regions of the globe?

Merry Christmas ... to you and all the other great and helpful contributors on sharetrader!

[Ferg]

I’ve assessed HLG lost about $14m of sales during lockdown. Lost margin $8.4m offset by wage subsidies. No impact on profit in F20.

I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion there was no impact on FY20. Lost margin is lost margin (per your calc $8.4m). Whilst the wage subsidy was banked a portion of it was paid to employees and there were unfunded overheads. We need to look at all the variables.

The wage subsidy of $10m is in 2 parts. First part (5/12ths of $10m) paid a portion of wages during lockdown with a nett negative effect given the subsidy did not fund 100% of wage payments (another loss of what - $1m?). The second part (ie the 7 weeks funding post lockdown of about $5.8m) would have positive impact given it went into the "general pot" post lockdown. But overheads incurred during lockdown were unfunded (5/52ths of {$134m less W&S of $45m} less say 20% saving = 9.6% of $89m x 80%} of about $6.8m loss. Note IFRS16 muddies these waters so overheads includes interest on leases. Then there was another lockdown which would have cost HLG but is outside the scope of FY20.

Impact on FY20 (back of the fag packet) suggests:

Lost margin -$8.4m
Part 1 wage subsidy loss est. -$1m
Part 2 wage subsidy gain of +$5.8m
Unfunded overheads -$6.8m
Total impact = -$10.4m


If we look at the annual report, NPBT fell $2.7m off the back off fundamentally the same sales YoY so there was an impact somewhere because that result includes $10m of COVID funding. Note I am using NPBT to account for IFSR16 changes.

Net profit movement reconciliation:

HLG lost -$2.7m in FY20 vs FY19 with the same sales
Add back lost raw GP FY20 (HLG fault, not COVID) +$3.3m
Add back extra lost raw GP FY20 (at 5/52ths of the above) +$0.3m
Add back lower non-operating income $0.7m (not COVD fault)
Deduct wage subsidy funding (W&S reduced by subsidy per AR) -$10m
Subtotal = -$8.4m (this would have been the change in profit without the subsidy and assuming the GP % was the same)


Note the subtotal above is the impact before accounting for lost sales and margin. This figure is your estimated lost margin of $8.4m.

Normalised impact is:

Impact per part 1 above -$10.4m
Remove impact of lower YoY margins +$3.3m
Add annualised impact of lower margins +$0.3m
Remove impact of non-operating income +$0.7m
Nett "normalised" impact is loss of $6.1m


Whichever way you look at it there was a cost to HLG. It was either either $10.4m (raw), $6.1m (normalised) or $2.7m per the AR.

[arekaywhy]

I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion there was no impact on FY20. Lost margin is lost margin (per your calc $8.4m). Whilst the wage subsidy was banked a portion of it was paid to employees and there were unfunded overheads. We need to look at all the variables.

The wage subsidy of $10m is in 2 parts. First part (5/12ths of $10m) paid a portion of wages during lockdown with a nett negative effect given the subsidy did not fund 100% of wage payments (another loss of what - $1m?). The second part (ie the 7 weeks funding post lockdown of about $5.8m) would have positive impact given it went into the "general pot" post lockdown. But overheads incurred during lockdown were unfunded (5/52ths of {$134m less W&S of $45m} less say 20% saving = 9.6% of $89m x 80%} of about $6.8m loss. Note IFRS16 muddies these waters so overheads includes interest on leases. Then there was another lockdown which would have cost HLG but is outside the scope of FY20.

Impact on FY20 (back of the fag packet) suggests:

Lost margin -$8.4m
Part 1 wage subsidy loss est. -$1m
Part 2 wage subsidy gain of +$5.8m
Unfunded overheads -$6.8m
Total impact = -$10.4m


If we look at the annual report, NPBT fell $2.7m off the back off fundamentally the same sales YoY so there was an impact somewhere because that result includes $10m of COVID funding. Note I am using NPBT to account for IFSR16 changes.

Net profit movement reconciliation:

HLG lost -$2.7m in FY20 vs FY19 with the same sales
Add back lost raw GP FY20 (HLG fault, not COVID) +$3.3m
Add back extra lost raw GP FY20 (at 5/52ths of the above) +$0.3m
Add back lower non-operating income $0.7m (not COVD fault)
Deduct wage subsidy funding (W&S reduced by subsidy per AR) -$10m
Subtotal = -$8.4m (this would have been the change in profit without the subsidy and assuming the GP % was the same)


Note the subtotal above is the impact before accounting for lost sales and margin. This figure is your estimated lost margin of $8.4m.

Normalised impact is:

Impact per part 1 above -$10.4m
Remove impact of lower YoY margins +$3.3m
Add annualised impact of lower margins +$0.3m
Remove impact of non-operating income +$0.7m
Nett "normalised" impact is loss of $6.1m


Whichever way you look at it there was a cost to HLG. It was either either $10.4m (raw), $6.1m (normalised) or $2.7m per the AR.

I can hear the Donkey Teeth frowning from here

[Balance]

The Vueve Clicquot champagne is going to go down so very much better,

knowing

that there are two-faced hypocrites out there, walking around with hijabs stuffed in their posteriors,

spoiling their festive season with wage subsidy in their minds. :t_up:

[Ferg]

Another way of looking at this:

Start with the AR 2020 NPBT $37m
Add missing margin per winner +$8.4m
Deduct COVID subsidies -$10m
Amended NPBT = $35.4m

This method shows HLG was heading for a lower NPBT before COVID struck, assuming the $8.4m is correct.

The lower profit can be see in the higher wage costs before COVID of $45m + $10m add back vs $51.7m in FY19 giving extra pre COVID costs of $3.3m. We also know the GP% was worse in FY20 by at least $3m. The change to IFRS16 had minimal impact.

One complicating factor is the lockdown periods were different in NZ vs Oz.

Winner - would you like to share your workings on the lost revenues of $14m?

[Beagle]

An itch which needed scratching but has now turned into a festering sore needing treatment for some posters, Beagle? They need to get a life before the sore becomes septic.

It is indeed the season of goodwill, so let’s wish them a merry time.

I have this strange bizarre feeling, there might be something slightly better to do at this time of year than endlessly debate this subject even more endlessly than it already has been ;)


I'm not sure I agree with the conclusion there was no impact on FY20. Lost margin is lost margin (per your calc $8.4m). Whilst the wage subsidy was banked a portion of it was paid to employees and there were unfunded overheads. We need to look at all the variables.

The wage subsidy of $10m is in 2 parts. First part (5/12ths of $10m) paid a portion of wages during lockdown with a nett negative effect given the subsidy did not fund 100% of wage payments (another loss of what - $1m?). The second part (ie the 7 weeks funding post lockdown of about $5.8m) would have positive impact given it went into the "general pot" post lockdown. But overheads incurred during lockdown were unfunded (5/52ths of {$134m less W&S of $45m} less say 20% saving = 9.6% of $89m x 80%} of about $6.8m loss. Note IFRS16 muddies these waters so overheads includes interest on leases. Then there was another lockdown which would have cost HLG but is outside the scope of FY20.

Impact on FY20 (back of the fag packet) suggests:

Lost margin -$8.4m
Part 1 wage subsidy loss est. -$1m
Part 2 wage subsidy gain of +$5.8m
Unfunded overheads -$6.8m
Total impact = -$10.4m


If we look at the annual report, NPBT fell $2.7m off the back off fundamentally the same sales YoY so there was an impact somewhere because that result includes $10m of COVID funding. Note I am using NPBT to account for IFSR16 changes.

Net profit movement reconciliation:

HLG lost -$2.7m in FY20 vs FY19 with the same sales
Add back lost raw GP FY20 (HLG fault, not COVID) +$3.3m
Add back extra lost raw GP FY20 (at 5/52ths of the above) +$0.3m
Add back lower non-operating income $0.7m (not COVD fault)
Deduct wage subsidy funding (W&S reduced by subsidy per AR) -$10m
Subtotal = -$8.4m (this would have been the change in profit without the subsidy and assuming the GP % was the same)


Note the subtotal above is the impact before accounting for lost sales and margin. This figure is your estimated lost margin of $8.4m.

Normalised impact is:

Impact per part 1 above -$10.4m
Remove impact of lower YoY margins +$3.3m
Add annualised impact of lower margins +$0.3m
Remove impact of non-operating income +$0.7m
Nett "normalised" impact is loss of $6.1m


Whichever way you look at it there was a cost to HLG. It was either either $10.4m (raw), $6.1m (normalised) or $2.7m per the AR.
Excellent post. I put some of it in bright blue and highlighted it so the socialist lefties conducting their witch hunt can read it even with their one eyed myopic vision ;)
It is a real pleasure having you join the forum this year. I look forward to reading your well considered posts in the future.


Poor Beagle: Definitely a Pavlovian Dog.
Disc: The mushrooms & other trimming on the XMAS log roll (https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthread.php?4494-HLG-Hallenstein-Glasson&p=864394&viewfull=1#post864394) were made from pavlova.
Definitely salivating this year as my nephew who is one of Auckland's top chef's has moved into a new house and invited the whole Beagle clan around for Christmas lunch. Pretty sure Pavlova will be served as well ;)

Merry Christmas to all and best wishes for the holiday season.

[nztx]

Another way of looking at this:

Start with the AR 2020 NPBT $37m
Add missing margin per winner +$8.4m
Deduct COVID subsidies -$10m
Amended NPBT = $35.4m

This method shows HLG was heading for a lower NPBT before COVID struck, assuming the $8.4m is correct.

The lower profit can be see in the higher wage costs before COVID of $45m + $10m add back vs $51.7m in FY19 giving extra pre COVID costs of $3.3m. We also know the GP% was worse in FY20 by at least $3m. The change to IFRS16 had minimal impact.

One complicating factor is the lockdown periods were different in NZ vs Oz.

Winner - would you like to share your workings on the lost revenues of $14m?


Excellent analysis there Ferg

My thoughts too - 100% of subsidies had to be paid out (or unpaid portion returned)

I'm of thoughts that the way reporting the subsidy is flawed, in reports of listed companies

The legislation provided that the wages paid from subsidy & subsidy were non taxable / non deductible

It's questionable whether wages paid up to subsidy level were even a company expense, perhaps
net off (with associated note of what was netted off) would have been more appropriate.

The true wage cost over subsidy period is in fact the amount in excess of any subsidy, which the entities
paid out & wore at the end of the day

Add on AC Levies, Kiwisaver, HP and all the extra Remuneration oncosts associated to arrive at figure
for Overall net outgoing when Covid times trading was negligible / stores were closed

but just MTCW .. ;)


Merry Christmas to all and best wishes for the holiday season !

[JeremyALD]

I agree that the whole debate is overdone. There was obviously huge disruption from the lockdown and HLG were eligible to claim. At one point their SP dropped to $1.80! Thats how dire things were looking.

The fact they have recovered well should be celebrated, not shut down as a negative. Its almost like some people would prefer for all businesses to have not bounced back and struggled.

If they made a large profit during lockdown or during the wage subsidy that would be a different story, but a lot of these companies have performed well several months after the restrictions which keeps people in their jobs and our economy running.

Hallensteins has also performed well because they have spent several years focusing on e-commerce and have benefited from that tailwind, alongside good management.

Enjoy your Christmas everyone, excited for another big year ahead!

[BlackPeter]

The Vueve Clicquot champagne is going to go down so very much better,

knowing

that there are two-faced hypocrites out there, walking around with hijabs stuffed in their posteriors,

spoiling their festive season with wage subsidy in their minds. :t_up:

Jeez - you have a serious problem ... and it's not just related to hijabs ...

I hope that this festive season gives you a chance to reflect and to work on this issue ...

It is so sad ... and your hate and spite devaluates many of your otherwise useful posts.

Let it go ... and enjoy the season. No matter what you believe (if anything) - but I hope the spirit of Christmas manages to touch you. It is the time of love and forgiving ... maybe you could even try to forgive the people who didn't do wrong :):

Merry Christmas!

[Balance]

Jeez - you have a serious problem ... and it's not just related to hijabs ...

I hope that this festive season gives you a chance to reflect and to work on this issue ...

It is so sad ... and your hate and spite devaluates many of your otherwise useful posts.

Let it go ... and enjoy the season. No matter what you believe (if anything) - but I hope the spirit of Christmas manages to touch you. It is the time of love and forgiving ... maybe you could even try to forgive the people who didn't do wrong :):

Merry Christmas!

You prefer wage subsidy up their posteriors?

Hijab because the wearing of it (after it was pointed out that it represents oppression, persecution and brutalization in countries like Iran) is the height of how cynical & hypocritical the government is.

[BlackPeter]

You prefer wage subsidy up their posteriors?

Hijab because the wearing of it (after it was pointed out that it represents oppression, persecution and brutalization in countries like Iran) is the height of how cynical & hypocritical the government is.

I think anybody here does know your views on these issues. Personally I don't share them, but this does not invalidate them and clearly should not stop a civilized debate.

However - you are often sounding like a broken record, providing the same message again and again without adding anything new or useful. Even your spite is neither new nor useful.

Feels a bit like the rants and tweets of a recent US politician we both seem to despise. While I don't think that he is able to improve, I am sure you could :):

Merry Christmas.

[Balance]

I think anybody here does know your views on these issues. Personally I don't share them, but this does not invalidate them and clearly should not stop a civilized debate.

However - you are often sounding like a broken record, providing the same message again and again without adding anything new or useful. Even your spite is neither new nor useful.

Feels a bit like the rants and tweets of a recent US politician we both seem to despise. While I don't think that he is able to improve, I am sure you could :):

Merry Christmas.

There is a difference - I am right and he is wrong.

[BlackPeter]

There is a difference - I am right and he is wrong.

That's what he would say as well :):

[Balance]

That's what he would say as well :):

Facts are facts.

Try dealing with facts - you will find it revealing & refreshing.

[BlackPeter]

Facts are facts.

Try dealing with facts - you will find it refreshing.

What you call facts are (in this case) just your subjective views ... and no matter what you think they are - nothing is refreshing when presented as a broken record.

Anyway - just tried to help with a bit of feedback. Make with that what you please.

[Balance]

What you call facts are (in this case) just your subjective views ... and no matter what you think they are - nothing is refreshing when presented as a broken record.

Anyway - just tried to help with a bit of feedback. Make with that what you please.


Thanks but no thanks - don’t need it from you or any of the two faced hypocrites.

You have a Merry Christmas though, ok?

[Habits]

Excellent analysis there Ferg

My thoughts too - 100% of subsidies had to be paid out (or unpaid portion returned)

I'm of thoughts that the way reporting the subsidy is flawed, in reports of listed companies

The legislation provided that the wages paid from subsidy & subsidy were non taxable / non deductible

It's questionable whether wages paid up to subsidy level were even a company expense, perhaps
net off (with associated note of what was netted off) would have been more appropriate.

The true wage cost over subsidy period is in fact the amount in excess of any subsidy, which the entities
paid out & wore at the end of the day

Add on AC Levies, Kiwisaver, HP and all the extra Remuneration oncosts associated to arrive at figure
for Overall net outgoing when Covid times trading was negligible / stores were closed

but just MTCW .. ;)


Merry Christmas to all and best wishes for the holiday season !

Net wages precisely... somehow I think WHS got this cocked up which allowed them to be a target

[Waltzing]

"I'm of thoughts that the way reporting the subsidy is flawed, in reports of listed companies"


A comprehensive standard was needed with the IRD working in conjunction with standards body of the accounting society.


The balance sheet is the appropriate place for it to held until the IRD administers the credit applying rules for it apportionment.


Its a total stuff up and really shows just how little this government understands business and accounting for business.


You need a little library at home on the subject to be aware it exists but that is not what the minister of finance has on his book shelf.


Of more concern is the damage to the supply chain for retail clothing and in the next 6 months manufactures world wide will be suffering much higher debt ratios from stock piles of unpaid jeans and tee shirts.


Garment factories world wide are now struggling to pay works and keep there factories open. The supply chain has been hit hard and here in NZ you cant see that damage.

[HCR20]

At Glassons Sylvia Park. Queue for fitting rooms is 15 deep and no evidence of supply issues on shelves.

[Waltzing]

"15 deep" , That means aucklanders arnt at the beach yet? Shortly im sure!

There will also be a lot of stock being dumped if you can buy and ship it.

The one resource really worth investing in for the future is water..you do need a pair of pants but you need a lot more water and everyday.

[winner69]

Glassons going to the dogs

[Waltzing]

Did not have my camera out the other day but the local hunt club had a lot of beagles in the kennels the other day make a lot of noise as i rode past. Im sure Mr B will be along shortly to comment on that fabulously fashionable 4 legged shopper.

[nztx]

Glassons going to the dogs

Haha .. very good ;)

[nztx]

The punters seem to be pretty happy with the way things are going

The HLG online store marketing machine seems to be going hard out with daily / twice daily
promo emails coming in .. if this continues may have to look at topping up again .. ;)

[Balance]

Getting ready to hit $10 sp in 2021.

You read it here.

[JeremyALD]

The punters seem to be pretty happy with the way things are going

The HLG online store marketing machine seems to be going hard out with daily / twice daily
promo emails coming in .. if this continues may have to look at topping up again .. ;)

Bombarding people with promotional emails is not usually a good sign.

It's clear Hallensteins is trying to get sales coming through, whilst Glassons is the becoming the clear star performer of the group. You can see when you shop at the malls in auckland, one has a lot more foot traffic than the other.

[Jay]

Sweeping generalisation here, but women tend to buy more clothes than men, so maybe hence the disparity in numbers in stores.
In any event if Glassons' sales increase while Hallensteins' remain about the same - still a win.

[clearasmud]

Sweeping generalisation here, but women tend to buy more clothes than men, so maybe hence the disparity in numbers in stores.
In any event if Glassons' sales increase while Hallensteins' remain about the same - still a win.
Will they be able to turn around Hallensteins or should they divest it?

[bull....]

talking to some teenagers and they say the demographic is under yr 10 mainly cheaper stuff appeals to parents , older aged teens according to the ones i talked too now regard hlg clothing as the crinch brand. anyway they do well in there demo group

[Balance]

Sweeping generalisation here, but women tend to buy more clothes than men, so maybe hence the disparity in numbers in stores.
In any event if Glassons' sales increase while Hallensteins' remain about the same - still a win.

Very good point, Jay.

Was at Dressmart the other day (wished I weren’t but that’s another story) and all the women & unisex shops were packed to the door but not so, the men’s stores like Barkers, Rodd & Gunn, Rembrandt & Working Style. It is just the nature of things - females love to shop and try out outfits, most males cannot wait to get the hell out of a shop (unless it’s a pub!).

[JeremyALD]

Will they be able to turn around Hallensteins or should they divest it?

It still makes money and is pretty consistent. I think most of the investment (especially AU), should go into Glassons though.

They are clearly starting to target a younger demographic (under 25), so we'll see how that goes. I've also noticed they are chasing higher margins as they are not discounting as deep as they used to.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Perhaps hallensteins should consider capitalising on the now established online fulfilment infrastructure and create some innovative new online offerings for men. I'm thinking a subscription offering might be good - with a set per month fee that delivers a range of socks/underwear/tees etc every month which changes with the seasons, and a corporate offering that offers shirts/ties etc as well. each month comes with a discount voucher for in-store shopping. I know I would appreciate something like that as I loathe clothes shopping.

[Phil1964]

Perhaps a combination Pub / Men’s clothes shop could get the Hallensteins side back on track?

[nztx]

Bombarding people with promotional emails is not usually a good sign.

It's clear Hallensteins is trying to get sales coming through, whilst Glassons is the becoming the clear star performer of the group. You can see when you shop at the malls in auckland, one has a lot more foot traffic than the other.

Not something that one doesn't subscribe for to be on their opt-in email list though - is it ? ;)

Bombarding - I wouldn't think so

Quality of promos - fairly polished & well presented

No complaints here

MTCW


Happy New Year & a prosperous 2021 - All .. as we hope to see HLG hit loftier heights & further achievements in 2021 !

If HLG hits the big $10 in future then how would a 2:1 share split go down ? ;)

[clearasmud]

Not something that one doesn't subscribe for to be on their opt-in email list though - is it ? ;)

Bombarding - I wouldn't think so

Quality of promos - fairly polished & well presented

No complaints here

MTCW


Happy New Year & a prosperous 2021 - All .. as we hope to see HLG hit loftier heights & further achievements in 2021 !

If HLG hits the big $10 in future then how would a 2:1 share split go down ? ;)

Lovely.
Happy new year!

[FTG]

As they say, one "Swallow doesn't make it Spring", but have heard some intel that more than 1 Glassons hit record sales figures on Boxing Day.

Fingers crossed that is representative of group sales. :-)

[Waltzing]

Shopping , a therapy. When in a stressful place, shop till you drop.

[allfromacell]

As they say, one "Swallow doesn't make it Spring", but have heard some intel that more than 1 Glassons hit record sales figures on Boxing Day.

Fingers crossed that is representative of group sales. :-)

That wouldn't surprise me the Glassons I visited on boxing day were making a killing, I'd never seen anything like it so topped up a bit on the morning of the 29th.

[winner69]

Getting ready to hit $10 sp in 2021.

You read it here.

Looks like it's heading that way

First stop $7 this week ....and after update early February it will be above $8 and then punters will realise that full years sales will be up 15% plus and the B Team forecast of a 50 cent full year divie is on the cards

No worries

[Waltzing]

Just to cheer the B team , perhaps by then it will have to be called the A+ team. And it will be a better buy than ATM... well it pays a dividend!!! and then NZX 50? NOW WHERE IS THAT BARK . Very loud barks at the Hunt club today.

[Balance]

The power shares are on fire - utilities offering more than bank deposit rates.

Financial advisors putting ten of millions of dollars from maturing term deposits of clients/savers into yield share portfolios and chasing stocks.

They will find stocks like HLG & PGW with their growing earnings & high yields irresistible soon enough.

$10, here we come!

[nztx]

The power shares are on fire - utilities offering more than bank deposit rates.

Financial advisors putting ten of millions of dollars from maturing term deposits of clients/savers into yield share portfolios and chasing stocks.

They will find stocks like HLG & PGW with their growing earnings & high yields irresistible soon enough.

$10, here we come!



Yep -- especially on the back of Retail Investors chasing better yields than the old old bank deposit rates .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Not an NZX 50 yet. Gens are there for the future of the new EV fleet.

[winner69]

If HLG was in the DOW (or loosely the S&P500) it would be in the Dogs of the Dow portfolio for 2021

High divie yield ...share price too low they’d say

So 2021 HLG share price to $10 plus and a decent divie ...win win

[Waltzing]

The eco boy and girls are saying consumer spend throttle back from the after burner setting.

Possible virus leak Hamilton tested negative!

Wait till the new variant lands in big numbers on the shore and they eco's are expecting possible more lock downs describing it as hubris to date.

Not in the NZ 50 yet its a coin toss.

:scared:

[winner69]

I noticed in that brilliant WHS update yesterday that their H2 F20 sales (lockdown period) were actually in line with the PCP

HLG on the other hand had a big sales shortfall in H220

They have a lot of sales to catch up on F21 - hence the big %ages they have already reported

I threw this together - how full year F21 sales around $330m will pan out over the year. Some big sales growth periods to come I reckon

[winner69]

HLG share price going nowhere ...maybe mid 660’s is as high as it’s going to get (a la waltzingman)

And no signs of anybody ‘backing the truck up’ either

So a reminder of why punters should still be buying HLG. A few extracts from Beagles recent posts -

They had a cash mountain of around $50m as at balance date which I expect to be very similar at the conclusion of the current half year and equates to a whopping 83 cps. Based on likely earnings in the current period and their very robust cash position I am forecasting a fully imputed April dividend of around 24-25 cps.

And


Briscoes now on 18 times last years Covid affected earnings. A similar multiple would have HLG at $8.42. One has outstanding growth prospects in Australia the other does not. Hmmm

And


There are a range of uncertainties but I am modelling up about $24m for 1H FY21 up just on 50% on last years $16m and amounts to ~ 40 cps. Who knows what the dividend will be but they have truckloads of cash already, no debt and I am sure it will be dramatically higher than last years 15 cps.
This is based on sales for the first 26 weeks continuing to grow at the same rate as the first 18 weeks (14.5%), and the gross profit percentage increasing 1.8% back to the level prevailing in 2018 of 61.5%. These two factors alone add $16m in gross profit for the half year. Increased percentage of sales though online channels will add distribution and selling efficiencies.

[nztx]

how long until Feb update again ? ;)

[winner69]

how long until Feb update again ? ;)

Just over a month eh

You’ve got to be well before as the share price will shoot up quickly when the good news is announced

[tim23]

how long until Feb update again ? ;)

17 February last year

[nztx]

Just over a month eh

You’ve got to be well before as the share price will shoot up quickly when the good news is announced

For sure -- not wrong there ;)

[Waltzing]

Aus retail for Nov out ..

[invest]

No surprises - in line with expectations.

Retail sales advanced 7.1% from a month earlier, compared with the 7% gain forecast by economists and the 7% reported in late December as the preliminary figure, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Monday. The gain was driven by Victoria -- up 22.4% -- as Melbourne stores were able to trade for a full month, the ABS said. Excluding Victoria, sales rose 2.6%.
Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/australia-retail-sales-rise-7-1-as-melbourne-trade-resumes

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Aus retail for Nov out ..

7.1% jump in retail sales.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/australia-retail-sales-rise-7-1-as-melbourne-trade-resumes

[winner69]

7.1% jump in retail sales.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-11/australia-retail-sales-rise-7-1-as-melbourne-trade-resumes

C'mon lets do it properly - get real excited

Clothing, Footwear etc up 12.6% ,,,,wow

Nice picture from ABS

[Balance]

C'mon lets do it properly - get real excited

Clothing, Footwear etc up 12.6% ,,,,wow

Nice picture from ABS

One reason why HLG is one of the stocks to go up today?

[Waltzing]

actual we hoping for terrible retail in europe and steady as it goes here and even if there is a L4 here it wont be long as the L4 will be over night. Lets face it the Ministry is praying like everyone. Well at least the sailing or should we calling it low flying on water can give us respite from the global raging horror story. Surreal summer days of warm serenity beside the odd shark attack and stabbing.

Surprised someone did not raise the SP outlook to 11 based on Aussi retail fever.

[winner69]

........

Surprised someone did not raise the SP outlook to 11 based on Aussi retail fever.


Looks like half the B-team has gone for good and the other half seems rather subdued so no raising of SP outlook from them.

But a 50 cent fully imputed divie coming our way this year .....that’s nearly 70 cents gross .....in these days of generational low interest rates a 6% yield is very enticing ......so $11.57 share price is possible.

And there’s even more ....with HLG growth potential in Oz that divie will be even greater.

[winner69]

One interesting insight from those Australia retail stats.

in real $ (not seasonally adjusted) total retail spend less food is 6.3% higher than March 2020 levels (annual totals)

Clothing sector however reports sales still being 7.0% lower than March 2020 levels

Clothes have not been a driver of the OZ retail boom

Pretty amazing HLG are reporting such huge sales increases when the market they are in is still pretty stuffed

The clothing sector still has a lot of catch up to come - doesn't it?

I find this chart interesting

[Waltzing]

While over all Aus sales are behind last 2020 the numbers are still pretty good considering. I suppose some data scientists will be interested to see where a pandemic society spends it money.

We have to be careful with any statements but hopefully in 2021 we will increase the base of some of our data capabilities and contribute some stats in our comments more in line with MR B statistical comments.

[Balance]

Looks like half the B-team has gone for good and the other half seems rather subdued so no raising of SP outlook from them.

But a 50 cent fully imputed divie coming our way this year .....that’s nearly 70 cents gross .....in these days of generational low interest rates a 6% yield is very enticing ......so $11.57 share price is possible.

And there’s even more ....with HLG growth potential in Oz that divie will be even greater.

Not expecting any significant movement in the sp myself until the next market update which will be in Feb.

Happy with sp performance myself.

Busy quietly accumulating a turnaround stock where demand for the company's products & services already exceed supply, based upon real life market infor, before the institutions come back and start their due diligence on sector plays!

[Waltzing]

Yes if the SP stays here until the numbers come in but really what chance of an NZX 50 inclusion? The insto money went to the electricity generators at a speed that was parabolic. Even if 50 inclusion which we cant really see where are the shares going to come from. Many traded out at 13 dollars?

Even a small holding could become a nice little profit with 12 months.

[winner69]

Yes if the SP stays here until the numbers come in but really what chance of an NZX 50 inclusion? The insto money went to the electricity generators at a speed that was parabolic. Even if 50 inclusion which we cant really see where are the shares going to come from. Many traded out at 13 dollars?

Remember when Comvita got into the NZX50 - it shares shot through 12 bucks and nearly reached 13 bucks .... was really amazing

Like your mention of 13 bucks

You never know - you could be right :)

[BlackPeter]

Remember when Comvita got into the NZX50 - it shares shot through 12 bucks and nearly reached 13 bucks .... was really amazing

Like your mention of 13 bucks

You never know - you could be right :)

Are you sure Comvita is a good example to lift the spirit of HLG holders :)?

Just remember what happened after the NZX50 joining party ...

[Waltzing]

This stock paying a big div who is going to sell? even a small holding will be with big bucks. With banks stuck with no chance of paying 2.5 % on a term deposit anything paying a div of 5% and above is under priced across the market.

Even business commentators today in NZ are warning that nothing has played out as forecast and they dont see the world returning to an old Normal.

[macduffy]

With banks stuck with no chance of paying 2.5 % on a term deposit anything paying a div of 5% and above is under priced across the market.


Providing they remain profitable and keep paying dividends!

Disc: Holding HLG.

[winner69]

Are you sure Comvita is a good example to lift the spirit of HLG holders :)?

Just remember what happened after the NZX50 joining party ...

But it was exciting when it joined the party

And we know that HLG share price cycles between deep lows and high highs so we are prepared for any post party blues.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

...

Even if 50 inclusion which we cant really see where are the shares going to come from.

...


What do you mean by this? Hasn't it already been established that HLG will be the next stock added to the 50? Either from another company exiting via takeover/merger, or from HLG simply maintaining its current market cap long enough to supplant companies that have maintained lower market caps for long enough.

[Balance]

What do you mean by this? Hasn't it already been established that HLG will be the next stock added to the 50? Either from another company exiting via takeover/merger, or from HLG simply maintaining its current market cap long enough to supplant companies that have maintained lower market caps for long enough.

Wimss means where are the shares going to come from if HLG gets into the index as it is such a tightly held share.

[invest]

In fact, there's a good spread of shareholders. Top 21 shareholders hold 29% of shares. The largest shareholder Tim Glasson only holds 20%?
There's a slight difference between being tightly held, and thinly traded. HLG is more of the latter.
12222

[Waltzing]

wrongly used "Tightly held".

Limited issuance and possible continued profits might put stress on off market demand. If it goes Parabolic and most other stuff has lately beyond expectations might they do a stock split. Cant see any need for a cap raise unlike KMD.

Only 59 million shares issued.

[nztx]

wrongly used "Tightly held".

Limited issuance and possible continued profits might put stress on off market demand. If it goes Parabolic and most other stuff has lately beyond expectations might they do a stock split. Cant see any need for a cap raise unlike KMD.

Only 59 million shares issued.

Agreed .. but even with a Share Split if it were to occur .. HLG is likely to be more tightly held on to by existing holders .. ;)

[macduffy]

Agreed .. but even with a Share Split if it were to occur .. HLG is likely to be more tightly held on to by existing holders .. ;)

Spot on, nztx!

:cool:

[Waltzing]

It would then appear from macduffy, nztx that if profits continue and NZX50 is included in the next 12 months the share price could burst parabolic and easily double if interest rates stay low. Speculation yes but really who would sell this now but on the next profit report accumulate.

On each positive report result accumulation has proved profitable within weeks even days of the announcement.

[see weed]

In fact, there's a good spread of shareholders. Top 21 shareholders hold 29% of shares. The largest shareholder Tim Glasson only holds 20%?
There's a slight difference between being tightly held, and thinly traded. HLG is more of the latter.
12222
where is my name? Boo hoo, how old is that list?:mellow:

[JSwan]

HLG sell side depth looks empty

[Balance]

HLG sell side depth looks empty

Yield chasing investors waking up to HLG's juicy 10%+ yield.

[nztx]

Who knows 8 bucks might now be on the way soon .. ;)

then comes Feb's announcement

then onwards and likely upwards to the next Div payout in April

[winner69]

Premier Investments (Smiggle, Just Jeans and Peter Alexander) profits booming in OZ. HLG will be doing the same, if not better

The retail group, which is majority-owned and chaired by billionaire Solomon Lew, told investors on Wednesday it expects earnings before interest and tax to come in at between $221 million and $233 million for the 27 weeks to January 30, a 75 to 85 per cent improvement on the first half of fiscal 2020. Its shares jumped more than 12 per cent to a new $25.40 record when the ASX opened for trading.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/premier-investments-nearly-doubles-profit-in-bumper-half-shares-surge-20210113-p56tp5.html

[Alpha]

Who has placed an order at $100k for 1 share?

Going to take a while for share price to get that high but I can def see double digits this year.

[Balance]

Premier Investments (Smiggle, Just Jeans and Peter Alexander) profits booming in OZ. HLG will be doing the same, if not better

The retail group, which is majority-owned and chaired by billionaire Solomon Lew, told investors on Wednesday it expects earnings before interest and tax to come in at between $221 million and $233 million for the 27 weeks to January 30, a 75 to 85 per cent improvement on the first half of fiscal 2020. Its shares jumped more than 12 per cent to a new $25.40 record when the ASX opened for trading.


https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/premier-investments-nearly-doubles-profit-in-bumper-half-shares-surge-20210113-p56tp5.html

Thx, W69 for keeping track and posting.

[Alpha]

Is this an ATH? $7 dollars

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Is this an ATH? $7 dollars

$7.01 is previous ATH, hopefully we breach that today :)

[see weed]

Who has placed an order at $100k for 1 share?

Going to take a while for share price to get that high but I can def see double digits this year.
That is $100 for one share:).

[Alpha]

opps missed the.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

$7.10 !!!

I presume the technical analysis folks will be looking closely now.

[Waltzing]

Long way to go. Dont get excited yet. Stocks with low liquidity can have Para Tops. Remember AUS retails sales is still under 2020 over all the last time we downloaded the data from the Aus Stats site.

[winner69]

Shouldn’t forget that last time shareprice was $7 odd it was cum 24 cent dividend

So today’s $7.10 is really pretty good ( on the old adjusted basis trick previous ATH was only $6.77


Just imagine what’ll happen if/when they declare a 30 cent interim divie.

Just

[Balance]

Shouldn’t forget that last time shareprice was $7 odd it was cum 24 cent dividend

So today’s $7.10 is really pretty good ( on the old adjusted basis trick previous ATH was only $6.77


Just imagine what’ll happen if/when they declare a 30 cent interim divie.

Just

$7.20 ATH and powering on with some volume evident - any decent volume on the offer is getting taken out.

Which must imo mean the big institutional boys are back from their holidays and they like HLG.

Sellers are retreating to the hills so $8 should be the next easy target to reach.

[Alpha]

Hear we go :)

[Waltzing]

13 dollars is para top.

big insto's buy from a program laid out from not a oh ill buy this today.

Its likely some brokers are advising clients to buy dividends just like they have been advising buy green enegry.

The new Audi fully electric vehicles are being advertised and soon anyone driving a diesel will be frowned on by younger people.

A farmer the other day said he was looking to go electric but recharging was still an issue where he lived.

[winner69]

Even Premier can double profits then HLG will probably do heaps better.

Beagle said H1 be about $24m v $16m last year .....probably going to be higher

Market loved Premiers announcement ...up 20% plus

Seems Premier good performance has not gone unnoticed by NZ punters ...pile into HLG while it’s so cheap.

[Balance]

Even Premier can double profits then HLG will probably do heaps better.

Beagle said H1 be about $24m v $16m last year .....probably going to be higher

Market loved Premiers announcement ...up 20% plus

Seems Premier good performance has not gone unnoticed by NZ punters ...pile into HLG while it’s so cheap.

Not so loud, W69 - man is trying hard to get stock at $7.10, then $7.15 and it’s running away!

Will be a sp inquiry soon and what is the company going to reply? Read W69 at ST?

[nztx]

Not so loud, W69 - man is trying hard to get stock at $7.10, then $7.15 and it’s running away!

Will be a sp inquiry soon and what is the company going to reply? Read W69 at ST?

but it might be a bit late -- the secret looks like it's out now .. ;)

[Cyclical]

Not so loud, W69 - man is trying hard to get stock at $7.10, then $7.15 and it’s running away!

Good luck lol. Check out that spread. At time of writing, nothing on offer unless you want to pay $8.95!

[nztx]

a bit of a run away $7.30 last (20 min delay)
$7.31 buy $7.50 sell

[winner69]

Just imagine if an investment house took a shine to HLG - like Gragher did a couple of years ago

They might need to pay up to $10 to get a decent holding

Could be attractive for such investors seeing Glassons growing presence and success in Australia ...and off course their online presence

[Balance]

Just imagine if an investment house took a shine to HLG - like Gragher did a couple of years ago

They might need to pay up to $10 to get a decent holding

Could be attractive for such investors seeing Glassons growing presence and success in Australia ...and off course their online presence

And remember, this is all before the possibility of HLG entering the NZX50.

[Rawz]

Seems there is basically nobody willing to part with their shares. Will be $8 by tomorrow

[Balance]

Seems there is basically nobody willing to part with their shares. Will be $8 by tomorrow

Would you when you can get that sort of yield that HLG pays?

[Waltzing]

Don t sell , Buy More!

[nztx]

Would you when you can get that sort of yield that HLG pays?


A bit more than that - it's difficult to find another stock that is reasonably priced / with good return currently
on NZX following the recent market run upwards .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Yes hard to find stocks on the NZX but there are some beaten down stock in AUS and later this northern winter there will be some in europe.

[nztx]

Yes hard to find stocks on the NZX but there are some beaten down stock in AUS and later this northern winter there will be some in europe.


USA here -- some stocks north of 10% yield & paying, if one takes onboard risk / exchange fluctuations etc

[Alpha]

Balance you can grab a few more now at 7.35 currently showing 15000

I may just grab a few more though. So better be quick

[nztx]

I'm sure I wouldn't part with our HLG parcel even if SP went north of $12 ;)

[winner69]

Not so loud, W69 - man is trying hard to get stock at $7.10, then $7.15 and it’s running away!

Will be a sp inquiry soon and what is the company going to reply? Read W69 at ST?

They will probably be forced to come out with a guidance update

Still week or so to end of half but they know what a boomer of a half its been

Imagine a headline like 'Hallensteins Glasson doubles half year profit. Big surge in on-line sales'

[Balance]

Balance you can grab a few more now at 7.35 currently showing 15000

I may just grab a few more though. So better be quick

Thanks.

I am adding onto my stake in the back foot and am there at a slightly lower price.

[Snow Leopard]

whilst always happy that my second biggest NZX holding is trying to grab the top spot I do think that:

this is getting rather silly (https://www.boredpanda.com/snow-leopards-biting-tail-funny-cats/):
https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/snow-leopards-biting-tail-funny-cats-12-573db435ebe80__880.jpg

[Balance]

whilst always happy that my second biggest NZX holding is trying to grab the top spot I do think that:

this is getting rather silly (https://www.boredpanda.com/snow-leopards-biting-tail-funny-cats/):
https://static.boredpanda.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/snow-leopards-biting-tail-funny-cats-12-573db435ebe80__880.jpg

Then provide some liquidity and sell?

[Snow Leopard]

Then provide some liquidity and sell?

Don't be silly !

[Alpha]

No one is selling. I am trying to buy another 500 and have just acquired a whole 17 shares at my price. This is crazy

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I dont see why the company needs to provide any sort of "please explain" - the stock is still very attractive by any metric given the current yield and guidance. It isn't management fault it took forever for the market to catch on.

[macduffy]

[QUOTE]at my price[QUOTE]

So, all that means is that you're not meeting the market.

;)

[Waltzing]

if they meet market expectation that will allow for a DIV increase and they dont put it all back into growth they will be even harder to get on market.

we did sell at 6 and let you have some cheap yet again. but only after having sold for 6 for the 3rd time.

buy price has always been under 3.50

we will happily sell a few for very silly price.

Try getting NET 5% at your local bank. Its dirt cheap today.

[winner69]

No one is selling. I am trying to buy another 500 and have just acquired a whole 17 shares at my price. This is crazy

You got the rest at 731? well done

Weren’t tempted to get even more were you?

[Alpha]

Yes at 731 I am always tempted but have to be sensible as well ;)

[winner69]

only up 7%/8% last couple of days

Plenty more to come

[Waltzing]

W(N) your still buying? or your buy ave is well under 6 and really you just dont need anymore. We certainly dont have enough but there are some really beaten down stock out in the big world that just got beaten up again this summer. Its round two in the biggest buying opportunity since the GFC. Oh that right it happens on average every 10 to 15 years! Whats it next time? Well next time it might be really serious.

[Balance]

Thanks.

I am adding onto my stake in the back foot and am there at a slightly lower price.

Looks like sellers are now offering stock on the back foot as well - sitting at $7.35 and not willing to sell lower than market either!

Talked to an ex-holder today who dished out their 28,000 shares last year at $6.00 - did not think it will hold at $6.00.

Well, them's the breaks and nothing wrong with locking away $42,000 of gains. We all live and learn, right?

[tim23]

Looks like sellers are now offering stock on the back foot as well - sitting at $7.35 and not willing to sell lower than market either!

Talked to an ex-holder today who dished out their 28,000 shares last year at $6.00 - did not think it will hold at $6.00.

Well, them's the breaks and nothing wrong with locking away $42,000 of gains. We all live and learn, right?

Fair point - you never lost $ taking a profit $42k is very tidy

[Waltzing]

Its true normally we would have sold out ALL shares at above 6. But as Powell is speaking now interest rates are not going up any time soon. This isnt the GFC which rolled on for n years with rolling swings.

With no interest rate rises anytime soon HLG if it keep and ups the DIV then under 6 dollars might not transpire. HLG is not a tourism stock and the only thing effecting it might be supply.

Yes huge amounts of retail stock has been dumped or is sitting in warehouses around the world but that should mean some wholesalers will be buying ex stock at some cheap rates as manufactures try to cover debt.

Look what has happened to ALL high DIV stocks and if this sells off this time it will be against the current market trend.

Big spending is coming in the US and that should hold the DOW up.

We sold 70% at 6 for the 3rd time. But we think this time it has a chance to double its price. The chart history will have some people dumping 100% but the stock has not reached its value limit.

This is one of the last stocks on the NZX to revalue and unless gross profit is down and the dividend cut this stock has yet to revalue.

NZX inclusion should send it Para because with no interest rates rises who would sell now.

Thats why a lot of the money coming off TD might have gone to Gen Gold stocks (CEN , MCY ect) and probably some to growth ETF tech stocks.

Its RISK ON not OFF. Monetary policy has money supply in Para Zone. It 5Xs what it normally is and means the market doesnt care about anything.

[winner69]

Goodness gracious - even Michael Hill are raving about strong performance and material profit growth ...amd reinstated the divie

If they can achieve this just imagine what a far better managed and run business like Hallensteins Glassons are going to report when they come out and own up to what a bonanza of a half year its been

I reckon another good day or HLG share price today


Note: I'll leave the MHJ details to discuss on that thread but they will be super excited when MHJ share price will rocket up today

[Balance]

Goodness gracious - even Michael Hill are raving about strong performance and material profit growth ...amd reinstated the divie

If they can achieve this just imagine what a far better managed and run business like Hallensteins Glassons are going to report when they come out and own up to what a bonanza of a half year its been

I reckon another good day or HLG share price today


Note: I'll leave the MHJ details to discuss on that thread but they will be super excited when MHJ share price will rocket up today

There are similarities in HLG & MHJ - both offer perceived quality & well designed discretionary products at fair prices.

So whatever is working well for MHJ to achieve excellent sales revenues and increased profits, will work doubly more for HLG as W69 wrote above.

[Waltzing]

waiting to buy more on good news. Its never to late but you will miss some 24 to 50% of the profit margin but dont be greedy unless there is a global climate event the market will open tomorrow.

[winner69]

There are similarities in HLG & MHJ - both offer perceived quality & well designed discretionary products at fair prices.

So whatever is working well for MHJ to achieve excellent sales revenues and increased profits, will work doubly more for HLG as W69 wrote above.

Indeed

What these updates are showing that while lockdowns affected sales a lot of the 'pent up demand' has materalised .....and that those who have great online platforms are doing extra well .....and HLG has demonstrated their online capability (even better than Michael Hill)

[Balance]

Indeed

What these updates are showing that while lockdowns affected sales a lot of the 'pent up demand' has materalised .....and that those who have great online platforms are doing extra well .....and HLG has demonstrated their online capability (even better than Michael Hill)

Stop it, W69!

You are tempting me to increase my bid price when I am already extremely overweight!

But it is okay to have too much of a good thing when it comes to shares, I guess :eek2:

[winner69]

Stop it, W69!

You are tempting me to increase my bid price when I am already extremely overweight!

But it is okay to have too much of a good thing when it comes to shares, I guess :eek2:

Rate they going the cash mountains must now be about a $1 a share

Bigger than expected divie in a month or two I reckon

So you’ll be OK if worried about being overweight (position wise that is) :)

[Waltzing]

"Pent up demand"

imagine what that will mean to some beat down stocks in other sectors.. and those are the ones we are investing in off shore.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

It is not just pent top demand. I think many underestimate how much of the nations discretionary spending was previously allocated to overseas holidays. All that money is now being spent on other discretionary items instead, a big chunk of it in the form of retail goods, and another big chunk in money heading into the Stockmarket.

[winner69]

It is not just pent top demand. I think many underestimate how much of the nations discretionary spending was previously allocated to overseas holidays. All that money is now being spent on other discretionary items instead, a big chunk of it in the form of retail goods, and another big chunk in money heading into the Stockmarket.

And they say bank deposits are increasing as well.

[Waltzing]

well there used to be 6 people in the local travel shop. now just 2 on half weeks..\

we are moving into travel stocks as they will revalue last.

But not cruise ships.

[Rawz]

Anyone else really surprised the share price hasn't moved up again today?

[Alpha]

We have enough. Now looking forward to results. Could just be a bit of cooling off from yesterday.

Still plenty for this to go.

[nztx]

Anyone else really surprised the share price hasn't moved up again today?

might be a new week job .. who knows after the past few day's excitement .. ;)

What would a Special Dividend announcement do to the ceiling panels ? ;)

[Waltzing]

whats next, is more likely a L4 and another round of seating at home with more ON LINE SHOPPING !

[BlackPeter]

Anyone else really surprised the share price hasn't moved up again today?

Buy the story, sell the facts ...

maybe some people start to doubt the story?

[nztx]

whats next, is more likely a L4 and another round of seating at home with more ON LINE SHOPPING !

possible too -- looking at some reports of NZ Quarantine facilities coming through Stuff today

[Beagle]

HLG share price going nowhere ...maybe mid 660’s is as high as it’s going to get (a la waltzingman)

And no signs of anybody ‘backing the truck up’ either

So a reminder of why punters should still be buying HLG. A few extracts from Beagles recent posts -

They had a cash mountain of around $50m as at balance date which I expect to be very similar at the conclusion of the current half year and equates to a whopping 83 cps. Based on likely earnings in the current period and their very robust cash position I am forecasting a fully imputed April dividend of around 24-25 cps.

And


Briscoes now on 18 times last years Covid affected earnings. A similar multiple would have HLG at $8.42. One has outstanding growth prospects in Australia the other does not. Hmmm

And


There are a range of uncertainties but I am modelling up about $24m for 1H FY21 up just on 50% on last years $16m and amounts to ~ 40 cps. Who knows what the dividend will be but they have truckloads of cash already, no debt and I am sure it will be dramatically higher than last years 15 cps.
This is based on sales for the first 26 weeks continuing to grow at the same rate as the first 18 weeks (14.5%), and the gross profit percentage increasing 1.8% back to the level prevailing in 2018 of 61.5%. These two factors alone add $16m in gross profit for the half year. Increased percentage of sales though online channels will add distribution and selling efficiencies.

Enough retail evidence out there now for me to be very comfortable that my projections are very conservative. I see considerable upside in 2021. Happy to let my 15% portfolio allocation run well north of its own accord and expect it too. I made a small top up last week.

[forest]

Hi Beagle, I see they released you out of the pound. Happy New Year and enjoy the roaming. :)

[pierre]

Welcome back Beagle - you have been missed.

[Waltzing]

We may just have to provide some time in the future a return of kind to Mr B. Nothing is as it seems.

[Balance]

Welcome back Beagle - you have been missed.

Hear! Hear!

[jimdog31]

Welcome back Beagle - you have been missed.

This I third!

[Joshuatree]

A friend has been researching the Vinyl Lp comeback....... Hang in there. He thinks it could be a fad with LP prices getting pretty high on some "special editions". Lo and behold the same day we were discussing this 2 sources have told us they've seen crates of 2nd hand lps for sale in Hallys!!?:scared:. They've got some retro clothing labels i hear also(havnt had a chance to look yet).Savvy marketing.

[Waltzing]

From the risk of adding to the off topic post what old clothing labels have value and what would and old with a scratched St Peppers be worth? One assumes that classical LP's would also have some value in europe.

we have been looking as getting a turn table for some time and the new ones can also rip to digital storage.

never should have sold those old turn tables and a very expensive CD player replaced with blue ray.

with the near over running of the health systems in the US and UK. The likely hood that the recovery of economy taking a year longer than expected share prices increases some are expecting may take a little longer than expected.

[nztx]

This I third!

and I fourth!

[nztx]

From the risk of adding to the off topic post what old clothing labels have value and what would and old with a scratched St Peppers be worth? One assumes that classical LP's would also have some value in europe.

we have been looking as getting a turn table for some time and the new ones can also rip to digital storage.

never should have sold those old turn tables and a very expensive CD player replaced with blue ray.

with the near over running of the health systems in the US and UK. The likely hood that the recovery of economy taking a year longer than expected share prices increases some are expecting may take a little longer than expected.

Remember there is a Trillion US Buck dish out package about to hit up there from Biden's new Administration..

On a smaller scale what happened here with Stimulus thrown around ?

Could similar happen on a larger scale in the US of A in ensuing post 'Tweetie Bird no Tweetie no more & USA De-Trumped' times ? ;)

What could that spell for us here - perhaps strengthening USD ?

[Habits]

HLG fundamentals are good but not willing to add risk right now. Will buy more after inauguration... I just don't trust that orange man

[Waltzing]

"Trillion US Buck dish out package "

with the country crippled this will take a while. the wave there is just getting started with the new variants but it may well be that variants have been there a while going by articles published this week.

[winner69]

Jeez shareprice down to 710 .... and lucky it didn't close lower

Hope the faithful aren't deserting the ship .....maybe waltzing warning us that HLG is a true cyclical and a drop in share price is inevitable

[winner69]

A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks

Last few days heading sub 7 bucks

Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour

No worries

[Waltzing]

its a very vol stock going on past performance and that is why we sold 75 % at 6.10.

moves of 50 cents or more are to be expected.

[jimdog31]

A few days HLG heading towards 8 bucks

Last few days heading sub 7 bucks

Suppose that is just part of normal share market behaviour

No worries

Beggar all volume though yeh??

[FatTed]

Welcome back Mr B

[Beagle]

VWAP was $7.22 so no worries.

HLG is the only BUY I have actioned this year so far which speaks for itself on what I think has the best prospects for near term price appreciation.
WHS currently trading on 23 times FY20's covid affected earnings and BGR on 18.8 times. Mid point of those is 20.9 x last years HLG covid affected earnings of 46.6 cps = $9.74.
Hard to see how current year eps is not going to be more than 60 cps so current year PE is only 12, (quite possibly less) which is very cheap considering the demonstrated growth in the Glassons brand.
How much of this is catch up sales is a difficult question but I think travel restrictions and people's propensity to spend on retail in lieu of travel is something that will endure well into 2022. The tailwind effects of once in a generation ultra low interest rates could give retail quite a boost for many, many years.

Tailwinds will also be felt from the high $Kiwi. I also really like the speed of growth in online sales and their existing penetration in that regard is well advanced of its above mentioned peers. Another thing people aren't talking about is that overseas retailers like Amazon are now having to charge GST on goods sold to Kiwi customers so we now finally have a level playing field for HLG. Further, its clear they are building out their online offer with an international website.

Very strong balance sheet and I agree with Winner's recent observation that their cash on hand at the time of next reporting could be close to $1 per share as they take a cautious approach with capex and store roll-out.
If they're going to be earning north of 60 cps and they already have ~ $1 a share in cash one wonders if the prospects for fully imputed dividends aren't north of 50 cps ~ (70 cos gross) ?

Where else can you earn 10% gross dividend yield, possibly more with exciting growth prospects on a current year PE of just 12 ?, (Current year PE may be less than this)

What happens to the share price when we get NZX50 inclusion or some broker analysts wake up and smell the coffee and start covering this, or perhaps both these things ?

Talk of $10+ is not silly pipe dreams stuff, but in fact is quite plausible within the next year or two in my opinion.

Thanks to so many of you for the warm welcome back, much appreciated. I have taken the opportunity today to share much of my musings over the holidays. Hopefully its helpful to some of you good folks. Best wishes to all for a very prosperous 2021 !

[peat]

Talk of $10+ is not silly pipe dreams stuff.

Thanks to so many of you for the warm welcome back, much appreciated. I have taken the opportunity today to share much of my musings over the holidays. Hopefully its helpful to some of you good folks. Best wishes to all for a very prosperous 2021 !

Best wishes to you Beagle and I hope you enjoyed your holidays. I certainly felt the need for a break and feel well refreshed, and even perhaps 'energised' to quote a power co CEO. :mellow:

My murky crystal ball predicts 8.40 is the top but a blow off to 9 I guess can fit within that picture. Somewhere around that level there will be talk of a global Glasson and Hallenstein hegemony so that might be an indicator to bow out :p.

In the meantime after all the holiday goodness I'll relax in my green trackies from the menswear dept they probably colour them with green dye from all the greenbacks they have stashed huh?

[Waltzing]

Its worth 12 at least if interest rates are at near zero.

As for dye the pollution of the great rivers in India are bad enough that the next wave of plagues could come from anywhere.

[winner69]

NZ Electronic Card spend for December data out today (Stats NZ)

Total retail up a healthy 3.5% from Dec19 month

But apparel up a whopping 8.2% on pcp

Punters buying clothes big time again

Glassons etc gain market share so sales up even more

[FatTed]

My Daughters tell me they for the last 2 years can get most of what they want from HLG, they used to spend their money with Asos and Urban Outfitters. They tell me the buyers are now much better than before.

[Waltzing]

Thats the best Intel anyone can get. If we had had that sort of Intel we might not have unload 75%, maybe 60 instead. All shopping was done in Asia between flights by this bunch last 5 years and therefore no Intel on this one charts only.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

My Daughters tell me they for the last 2 years can get most of what they want from HLG, they used to spend their money with Asos and Urban Outfitters. They tell me the buyers are now much better than before.

My wife used to buy plenty from ASOS online, but since I entered my HLG position all online clothes shops other than glassons are now blocked from access on home wifi. :D

[see weed]

The depth doesn't always tell the true depth. Just bought 4000 at 7.12. A couple seconds later it is down 5c to my original buy in price.:scared:

[Rawz]

My wife used to buy plenty from ASOS online, but since I entered my HLG position all online clothes shops other than glassons are now blocked from access on home wifi. :D

Similar situation here. Wifey had never shopped at Glasson's nor thought to. Asked her to give them a go since we were investors and turned out she really liked their offering and bought a bunch of clothes for summer.
(Biased anecdotal evidence but ill take it, lol)

Also asked her to get intel from the person behind the counter and reports were extremely busy over Christmas/New Year (Sylvia Park store)

[HCR20]

Similar situation here. Wifey had never shopped at Glasson's nor thought to. Asked her to give them a go since we were investors and turned out she really liked their offering and bought a bunch of clothes for summer.
(Biased anecdotal evidence but ill take it, lol)

Also asked her to get intel from the person behind the counter and reports were extremely busy over Christmas/New Year (Sylvia Park store)


My daughter (12) loves Glassons. We were in Sylvia Park on boxing day and the queue for the fitting room was 15 deep. Saleswoman said that it was a slow day lol.

[Waltzing]

ask your broker dealer to get the shares off market for a specific price

that way you wont be surprised when it drops. They will ask around and leave your price with other dealers. All those off trades are sometimes between parties who have left a note with other houses.

[Beagle]

The depth doesn't always tell the true depth. Just bought 4000 at 7.12. A couple seconds later it is down 5c to my original buy in price.:scared:

For what its worth I think that's very good buying. I would join you if I didn't have a full truckload already :)

[Waltzing]

More views expressed tonight in the states that rates will stay on hold for years to come until employment drops to 3 % as extreme as that sounds. If this extreme outcome transpires this stock could easily double.

remember when some expressed the view that the dollar was going to dark places in a hand basket. That never transpired and FPH took off into outer space.

We missed that after making a load but we believed the dollar was going down in QE.

Things may not transpire as we think they will into the future. You may get rewarded beyond your wildest dreams.

[patrick]

And with a new OUTBREAK of COVID?
$4.5 or back to $1.80?

[Waltzing]

Outbreaks means more on line sales and yet more credit reserves on the balance sheet net effect share price increases.

[nztx]

And with a new OUTBREAK of COVID?
$4.5 or back to $1.80?

but there wont be another outbreak .. Remember Camp Commandant Jacinda and what's his face
(the education bod) tell us so .. with better walls erected than even Tronald Dumpster could not in his
wildest of dreams have ever imagined on the planet .. ;)

[Biscuit]

... Wifey had never shopped at Glasson's nor thought to. Asked her to give them a go....

Honestly, I'm speechless.

[see weed]

For what its worth I think that's very good buying. I would join you if I didn't have a full truckload already :)
Thanks Beagle. About time you got back. Hope you had a good break. ps the meetup sharetraders group is having another meeting next week at the Via. Basin.

[Rawz]

Honestly, I'm speechless.

Ha! Don't be so woke. Searching to be offended over some perceived inequality. Can assure you it's the opposite if anything :laugh:

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle. About time you got back. Hope you had a good break. ps the meetup sharetraders group is having another meeting next week at the Via. Basin.

Thanks mate. Can you post the details of the meet up. I am planning on organizing another one for March so we can all chew the fat on the interim results.

Looking forward to the HLG February trading update and expecting very good things.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

And with a new OUTBREAK of COVID?
$4.5 or back to $1.80?

You won't see a large sell off on any future lockdown, our market, like every other market all over the world, has absorbed the fact that lockdowns are temporary and a lot of shopping moves online in any case. Whats more, in NZ we know the government will stump up with wage subsidies and loans to everyone who wants it.

[Beagle]

You won't see a large sell off on any future lockdown, our market, like every other market all over the world, has absorbed the fact that lockdowns are temporary and a lot of shopping moves online in any case. Whats more, in NZ we know the government will stump up with wage subsidies and loans to everyone who wants it.

Well said and I note yesterday's announcement that virtually all international passengers will be required to have a clean pre-departure test from 27 January. Good to see the Govt moving to enhance the safety of the team of 5 million and of course we have multiple vaccines coming this year.

[850man]

Based on news of late, bigger concern to HLG may be the ability to get stock in to the country

[Beagle]

Based on news of late, bigger concern to HLG may be the ability to get stock in to the country

They have been airfreighting some stuff. I understand its about $6 a kilo from Asia but women's swimwear doesn't weigh much ;)

[macduffy]

They have been airfreighting some stuff. I understand its about $6 a kilo from Asia but women's swimwear doesn't weigh much ;)

What! I'm not wearing that!

:ohmy:

[dibble]

They have been airfreighting some stuff. I understand its about $6 a kilo from Asia but women's swimwear doesn't weigh much ;)

Perhaps we will see a late summer range of mens' g-strings.

[Beagle]

Perhaps we will see a late summer range of mens' g-strings.

LOL you never know, the team seem to be good at picking up on new trends. (wouldn't hold your breath though because I didn't notice any at the crowded Pt Erin pools yesterday).

[peat]

Perhaps we will see a late summer range of mens' g-strings.

the website does not confirm
$10 peach undies tho.

[James108]

Speaking of underwear. I bought 3x boxer shorts for $20 from hallensteins. Normally I would never buy from hallensteins but I have to say I’m impressed with the quality. Better than AS colour and on par with bonds.

[stoploss]

Speaking of underwear. I bought 3x boxer shorts for $20 from hallensteins. Normally I would never buy from hallensteins but I have to say I’m impressed with the quality. Better than AS colour and on par with bonds.

Keep the good reviews up ,next you will have Tuku Morgan joining you in shopping there :t_up:
http://natlib.govt.nz/records/22568893

[see weed]

Expired post

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Does the likely Vocus NZ IPO on the NZX make a HLG addition to the NZX50 more or less likely?

HLG already has higher market cap than several NZX50 components, and Vocus would also likely have a market cap higher than as well.

So does Vocus IPO make it LESS likely HLG gets into the NZX50, because Vocus would be worth more and be the next entrant?

OR,

Does the Vocus IPO make it MORE likely HLG gets into the NZX50, because there is more chance of a bigger reshuffle with 2 large companies now existing that should be in the index, and so a reshuffle is done with multiple companies entering at same time?

[Davexl]

Does the likely Vocus NZ IPO on the NZX make a HLG addition to the NZX50 more or less likely?

HLG already has higher market cap than several NZX50 components, and Vocus would also likely have a market cap higher than as well.

So does Vocus IPO make it LESS likely HLG gets into the NZX50, because Vocus would be worth more and be the next entrant?

OR,

Does the Vocus IPO make it MORE likely HLG gets into the NZX50, because there is more chance of a bigger reshuffle with 2 large companies now existing that should be in the index, and so a reshuffle is done with multiple companies entering at same time?

Not certain, but would have thought that the trading volume requirements of a new stock would disqualify Vocus for the time being, unless there is some carryover arrangement formular from their Aussi trading? This makes HLG more likely IMO. Any further comments?

[Ferg]

Here are the rules around getting into the NZX50:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/documents/methodologies/methodology-sp-nzx-index.pdf

from here:
https://www.spglobal.com/spdji/en/indices/equity/sp-nzx-50-index/#

There are a bunch of rules and requirements around absolute and relative liquidity and the number of periods for which you must qualify before an entity is included. IMO the best bet for HLG would be someone else dropping out of the NZX50, assuming HLG are first in line.

[winner69]

I hope that recent all time high of 735 isn’t going to stay as an all time high forever

Waltzingmans comments about HLG it being cyclical keep coming back to haunt me

The first Fib retracements levels are $6.38 and $5.78 and $5,30

[Waltzing]

Well W(n) we are hoping that this time we are wrong and that is why we havnt sold everything. The only big regret we have this time is we always want to buy the freights and we missed them again. With an eye shares on other exchanges it very hard to keep commitments to anyone share.

In many respects the individual with one portfolio is at a big advantage as they can commit to half dozen or so shares and not be distracted.

DISC: As the virus is whack a mole in europe but it fades we are being constantly distracted back to europe.

[macduffy]

In many respects the individual with one portfolio is at a big advantage as they can commit to half dozen or so shares and not be distracted.

True. You can't kiss all the girls!

;)

[Balance]

I hope that recent all time high of 735 isn’t going to stay as an all time high forever

Waltzingmans comments about HLG it being cyclical keep coming back to haunt me

The first Fib retracements levels are $6.38 and $5.78 and $5,30

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

[Waltzing]

Now the opinion its a coin toss. Also another stuff up by the Ghost department of Virus busting like Northland and we will be dumping trading positions on the NZX. Not long term positions.

[Balance]

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

Obviously (as I expect) HLG comes out with a stellar result, sp will shoot up to at least $8.00 as a first step.

Then, sit back and watch the yield investors chase the stock higher.


Now the opinion its a coin toss. Also another stuff up by the Ghost department of Virus busting like Northland and we will be dumping trading positions on the NZX. Not long term positions.

No coin toss from me. I put my money where my convictions are.

[Waltzing]

The company has performed well over the last 10 years and that is why we havnt sold this time. We dont call it conviction just probability. On dividend we think its almost the most under valued stock on the NZX.

How ever with multiple Ports over exchanges we dont have much risk on this stock as we have mentioned that Travel in 5 years time will be a strong performer again and moving investments into that global market.

Not investing in Virgin just yet. Mars is a no go for holiday packages just yet.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Everything hinges on the results and dividends coming up.

SP will not retrace step by step if the results disappoint! It will be straight down to $5.30 or even lower.

I highly doubt it - even a result below expectations likely wouldn’t lead to anything like that sort of sell off as the dividend will still bring strong support.

[Waltzing]

It tends to over react for some reason if you look back to the down side. the vol is very light and that is what can cause the problem. We just dont hold a lot for any stock that does not have depth.

[Mudfish]

Okay, I've read lots of great posts on HLG and the December Update and here's my 2 cents.

Positives are:
- 14.51% sales up first 18 weeks Aug-Nov (from HLG Update Dec)
- Clothing spending up 8% over Christmas (Thanks for this Winner - it took me ages to find source but I did)
- My personal observation, it seems people are pretty happily spending up a storm out there . I even went to HLG this morning to buy some shorts.
Young lady there said Christmas was very busy (one store only, I know).

Negatives are:
- Shipping difficulties and increased freight costs are challenging (from HLG Update Dec).

Therefore, sales volumes will very likely be excellent but does that equate to more profit due to margin erosion? That's the million dollar question for me. So let's look at the figures. Respectfully, this has pretty much been covered by Beagle in the past but I'd like to present it slightly differently.

Figures - 3 Options
Option 1
Sales are excellent and margins remain good. A very conservative increase of 10% moves profit up to 16.984m. At a SP of $7.16 that gives a PE of 12.5. That's an absolute bargain with a fantastic divi too.
Option 2
Sales are excellent but margins are gobbled up by extra freight costs. If profit is the same as last years (15.44m 2020), SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 13.8. And likely a good divi.
Option 3
Profit downgrade due to excessive freight costs. Guess 14m (plucked out of the sky just needed a negative). SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 15.3. And still likely a good divi.

The interesting thing for me is, as Beagle has pointed out, BGR has a PE of 18.8. Therefore, HLG SP still seems undervalued even if the update in Feb is average. I have just bought a few at $7.16 and hope to accumulate a few more. Of course there is some risk but the upside far out-weights it IMO. Any thoughts are most welcome.

[Waltzing]

Check Aus retail government stats for the big picture. The excel stats file is not the best but at least they release the data going back YTD - n

[Mudfish]

Check Aus retail government stats for the big picture. The excel stats file is not the best but at least they release the data going back YTD - n

Cheers for that Waltz.... I have dug it up and had a good look. This is great info. Seems Victorians have been cutting loose since lock down lifted. No surprise there but good to see evidence clothing has at least been going bang busters in November. Hopefully, this has carried on through Christmas. Looking good for HLG.

[winner69]

....
Figures - 3 Options
Option 1
Sales are excellent and margins remain good. A very conservative increase of 10% moves profit up to 16.984m. At a SP of $7.16 that gives a PE of 12.5. That's an absolute bargain with a fantastic divi too.
Option 2
Sales are excellent but margins are gobbled up by extra freight costs. If profit is the same as last years (15.44m 2020), SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 13.8. And likely a good divi.
Option 3
Profit downgrade due to excessive freight costs. Guess 14m (plucked out of the sky just needed a negative). SP of $7.16 gives a PE of 15.3. And still likely a good divi.

.

Mudfish - Options 2 and 3 won't happen

Option 1 I assume is for half year and a 10% increase in earnings would be a disaster.

That huge sales increase you quoted is driven by a catchup of sales lost during lockdown during H220. I reckon this half year saes will be about $20m more than last year. At 60% margin thats $12m extra gross margin and say a bit more in expenses earnings will be up about $10m - ie to about 24m/$25m odd

Good eh

[Waltzing]

W(n) have to defer to your local knowledge of retail here in NZ.

[Balance]

Mudfish - Options 2 and 3 won't happen

Option 1 I assume is for half year and a 10% increase in earnings would be a disaster.

That huge sales increase you quoted is driven by a catchup of sales lost during lockdown during H220. I reckon this half year saes will be about $20m more than last year. At 60% margin thats $12m extra gross margin and say a bit more in expenses earnings will be up about $10m - ie to about 24m/$25m odd

Good eh

$24m is what Beagle is picking as well.

[Mudfish]

Mudfish - Options 2 and 3 won't happen

Option 1 I assume is for half year and a 10% increase in earnings would be a disaster.

That huge sales increase you quoted is driven by a catchup of sales lost during lockdown during H220. I reckon this half year saes will be about $20m more than last year. At 60% margin thats $12m extra gross margin and say a bit more in expenses earnings will be up about $10m - ie to about 24m/$25m odd

Good eh

I'll have to have another look. If I am misunderstanding and I'm way to light, that's awesome I'm super happy with that. Cheers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Domestic Retail spending continued to explode higher in December, with apparel being one of the largest growing areas.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/108803/kiwibank-economists-have-been-tracking-our-spending-and-we-are-still-doing

[Waltzing]

7 is the lower level end of what we like to see. Exploding or no exploding higher.


sales at KPG auckland retailers up in december.


We may come back into HLG on new data.

[nztx]

7 is the lower level end of what we like to see. Exploding or no exploding higher.


sales at KPG auckland retailers up in december.


We may come back into HLG on new data.



the empty truck likes the lower end of the SP spectrum with HLG in view .. ;)

[winner69]

Hang in there baby ...don’t want to see.a day, week and month close below 7 bucks

[Playa]

How much of an effect will supply chain issues from the Port have on the bottom line/share price in the year ahead?

[winner69]

How much of an effect will supply chain issues from the Port have on the bottom line/share price in the year ahead?

Kiwibank economists would say none

But these shipping delays may have a lagged effect on spending. Recent behaviour clearly shows no loss of demand. So once the shelves are full again, those on the waitlist can proceed to checkout."

NZ retailers have shown that sales post lockdown have recovered most of their lost sales.

So no worries

[Waltzing]

we have some old chart books and O Neil is a classic for the detail in the back room chart and data sheets they are a thing of great statistical beauty. The explanations may seem a little wistful but the presentation is fabulous. The bottom of every chart that goes back over 5 year usually shows that line persists forward if company stays in business and makes profits. If we do the same for HLG it would show 6.90 sometime again.

[winner69]

the empty truck likes the lower end of the SP spectrum with HLG in view .. ;)


Well done nztx in stopping today’s price fall an getting price back above 7 bucks

[Waltzing]

Some big moves on the Dow, should let us move to portfolio averages and re balance going forward. There is some margin calls coming soon for sure. It will ripple out giving you some options to buy. Not sure what balance sheets of the robins hoods are but it could have some short term waves.

if robin hood gets burned and they went 1 billion for cash last night. Then we will see ripples from it. Its a dangerous time to be in markets.

Oh i forgot that "it always dangerous to be in markets".

[nztx]

Some big moves on the Dow, should let us move to portfolio averages and re balance going forward. There is some margin calls coming soon for sure. It will ripple out giving you some options to buy. Not sure what balance sheets of the robins hoods are but it could have some short term waves.

if robin hood gets burned and they went 1 billion for cash last night. Then we will see ripples from it. Its a dangerous time to be in markets.

Oh i forgot that "it always dangerous to be in markets".

Indeed - good points

In these times, never forget where the exit doors are as well

With HLG however, I would tend to be watching the entry doors even closer .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Actually we are whatching the rivers in india closely.

clothing manufacturing practises labels havnt made it to NZ yet have they?

It will come..

[nztx]

Actually we are whatching the rivers in india closely.

clothing manufacturing practises labels havnt made it to NZ yet have they?

It will come..


probably in disguise & for well over 20 years they are likely to have .. ;)

[Waltzing]

pollution by clothing manufactures world wide.

[nztx]

pollution by clothing manufactures world wide.


best kept under your hat on here, my friend .. ;)

I have it on good sources that in some parts, they're trying to clean up their backyards .. ;)


but the bathing monks further downstream are objecting to removal of the bodypaints they've become rather
accustomed to over thousands of years with their frequent dips .. ;)

[dreamcatcher]

Bodypaints or bodyparts.......

[winner69]

Announcement re half year any day now

Boomer of a result ...maybe $25m or more npat

Wage subsidy mitigated F2O result but the catch up has generated the huge increase in profit ...most of the increase could be seen as a one off.

Over the last 12 months (H220 and H121) HLG reported profits will be than they would have been without lockdowns ....covid has been good to them financially.

[sb9]

Announcement re half year any day now

Boomer of a result ...maybe $25m or more npat

Wage subsidy mitigated F2O result but the catch up has generated the huge increase in profit ...most of the increase could be seen as a one off.

Over the last 12 months (H220 and H121) HLG reported profits will be than they would have been without lockdowns ....covid has been good to them financially.

Last year, trading update was on 17th, so would say it’ll take about couple of weeks for them to figure out numbers, especially with two long weekends in a row for Akl.

[Snoopy]

clothing manufacturing practises labels haven't made it to NZ yet have they?

It will come..

Quite right Waltzingman. Glassons haven't been totally asleep at the wheel in this space. They score a B+ on the A to F scale of clothing suppliers on the Tearfund survey of sustainability practices. Or at least they did in 2019, before Covid-19 stopped the audit inspections.

https://www.glassons.com/sustainability/ethical-responsibility

However, the standard of the code of conduct looks to have been set at a 'low bar' level.

"We expect suppliers to ensure this is communicated to all owned and contracting factories, sub-contractors, input suppliers; to respect and comply with our Code of Conduct."

'Expecting' a supplier to communicate to their sub-contractors is a long way from mandating such action and seeing it is followed through.



pollution by clothing manufactures world wide.


"Factories shall comply with all applicable environmental laws and regulations."

But in some countries there aren't any environmentally enforceable standards.

"we are working on the below policies

•Protection of our oceans policy"

So nothing has been done to address ocean pollution. HLG has turned a blind eye to the massive supply of microplastics washed from their fast disintegrating fast fashion products each time they are washed into the oceans where they will stay for tens of thousands of years.

I think there is a strong argument there that says Tim Glasson is New Zealand's least ethical CEO. What does that say about HLG shareholders?

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

I remain of the view that the trading update will be circa $24m, (up 50%) and that inclusion in the NZX50 is highly likely at some stage this year either through the removal of Infratil with a takeover or under its own steam. HLG put out a 60 page sustainability report and its available on their website to read for people who are into that sort of thing.

Frankly I think its anyone's guess to try and work out how much of the current periods anticipated strong growth is one-off customer restocking after the Covid lockdown and how much is ongoing strong growth of the Glassons brand, (especially in Australia), but for what its worth my guess is this is somewhere around a 50 / 50 split.

I see fair value one year hence in the $9-$10 range, towards the upper end of that on highly probably NZX50 inclusion, and am a very happy holder for the exceptional yield of circa 10% gross. (I am happy to take an extremely patient approach when getting that remarkable anticipated yield).

For what its worth, I topped up some more last week @ $7 to add my already large holding as I think at that price the shares are a compelling buy in an otherwise fairly fully priced market.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Quite right Waltzingman. Glassons haven't been totally asleep at the wheel in this space. They score a B+ on the A to F scale of clothing suppliers on the Tearfund survey of sustainability practices. Or at least they did in 2019, before Covid-19 stopped the audit inspections.

https://www.glassons.com/sustainability/ethical-responsibility

However, the standard of the code of conduct looks to have been set at a 'low bar' level.

"We expect suppliers to ensure this is communicated to all owned and contracting factories, sub-contractors, input suppliers; to respect and comply with our Code of Conduct."

'Expecting' a supplier to communicate to their sub-contractors is a long way from mandating such action and seeing it is followed through.



"Factories shall comply with all applicable environmental laws and regulations."

But in some countries there aren't any environmentally enforceable standards.

"we are working on the below policies

•Protection of our oceans policy"

So nothing has been done to address ocean pollution. HLG has turned a blind eye to the massive supply of microplastics washed from their fast disintegrating fast fashion products each time they are washed into the oceans where they will stay for tens of thousands of years.

I think there is a strong argument there that says Tim Glasson is New Zealand's least ethical CEO. What does that say about HLG shareholders?

SNOOPY

So are you saying every other clothes retailer in New Zealand isn't doing the same thing HLG is in this regard? Warehouse? Kmart? Farmers? Target? H&M?

[Snoopy]

So are you saying every other clothes retailer in New Zealand isn't doing the same thing HLG is in this regard? Warehouse? Kmart? Farmers? Target? H&M?


No, all that lot are guilty. Out of all those only the Warehouse is listed, although they deal with a whole range of less polluting products too. So of those seeking the listed limelight, if you regard Tim Glasson as 'totally unethical', then Nick Grayston of 'The Warehouse' fame, has an evil leg.

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

Sorry for commenting on pollution. Chief Detective Inspector Snoop has reminded us about the plastic's in the oceans and really it's very depressing except for the health of the HLG balance sheet.

DISC: retails is never a hold for us and always a Trade.

[Beagle]

No, all that lot are guilty. Out of all those only the Warehouse is listed, although they deal with a whole range of less polluting products too. So of those seeking the listed limelight, if you regard Tim Glasson as 'totally unethical', then Nick Grayston of 'The Warehouse' fame, has an evil leg.

SNOOPY

You can read all about HLG's sustainability initiatives here Snoopy https://www.hallensteins.com/content/files/Sustainabilty_Report.pdf

Page 40 is very cool. No animals will be harmed, EVER !!

[850man]

You can read all about HLG's sustainability initiatives here Snoopy https://www.hallensteins.com/content/files/Sustainabilty_Report.pdf

Page 40 is very cool. No animals will be harmed, EVER !!
Especially not any Beagles.... nice to see you back in here 😀

[Snoopy]

You can read all about HLG's sustainability initiatives here Snoopy https://www.hallensteins.com/content/files/Sustainabilty_Report.pdf

Page 40 is very cool. No animals will be harmed, EVER !!


Thanks for the reference.

Reads like a bit of Greenwash. Nothing like some good possum fur in a best coat. Oh and getting rid of leather to be replaced by 'vegan leather', (a petroleum based plastic product)? That isn't as 'environmentally friendly' as it first reads.

"Later this year, we will be launching compostable courier bags, currently in partnership with The Better Packaging Co. These will be certified to international standards and are designed to compost in both industrial and home compost facilities." (from p42)

That is a way of turning a macro pollution problem into a micro pollution problem. Are they bioengineering worms that can digest the microplastic at the same time?

"Encouraging best practice washing methods on our care labels – wash less,
wash cold, hang dry." (from p42)

Great. A product that falls apart does need to be washed less.

"Our goal for the next 12 months is to take our sustainable product offer to be minimum 20%." (from p36)

So currently 80% of product is not sustainable?

Democratically elected worker representatives (page 32)

"we prioritise factories that have democratically elected worker representatives, and functioning grievance mechanisms."

"In China independent unions are illegal....."

LOL. So why are you getting most of your clothes made in China then Mr Glasson?

(China: 48 Suppliers, 85 factories; India: 6 Suppliers, 12 factories; Bangladesh: 1 supplier, 4 factories) (page26)


From page 31:

"Overtime exceeds 36 hours month. (In China the working week is 40 hours and allowed overtime is 36 hours per month). The majority of workers work between 37 – 60 overtime hours a month. Again, this is a complicated issue with workers wanting those overtime hours."

So most clothing workers want to work about 55 hours per week. Could that be because a 40 hour week doesn't pay the bills?

I think perhaps I had better stop there......

SNOOPY

[Beagle]

Especially not any Beagles.... nice to see you back in here ��

Thanks.
Snoopy me ol mate. I am happy to leave the whole ESG debate to others.

[Balance]

Thanks.
Snoopy me ol mate. I am happy to leave the whole ESG debate to others.

Snoopy obviously has nothing better to do now that his days of trying to find financial stress in PGW's balance sheet turned out to be a wild goose chase - which ended up stressing him instead as PGW's profits grow and grow, along with its sp!

Something about missing the wood for the trees, I believe, Snoopy? Looking for a problem where there is none?

[Waltzing]

Notice the share price rises when Mr B is here. We thought it would fall farther for a bit of a buy but its showing no such signs at present

We also thought MR B would simply ride off into the distance with the Hunt.

We also think people buying on line will last a while but people love the site of other people.

Thats why after a year or 2 they will again venture out and about and visit a mall. Perhaps not as often but they will enjoy seeing OTHER people.

KPG is undervalued .

But travel stocks are as we have stated the big undervalue sector at the moment. Almost underwater in fact..

[dreamcatcher]

Already have enough in the mid 3's but added more at $7 last week for future divvie

[Snoopy]

Snoopy obviously has nothing better to do now that his days of trying to find financial stress in PGW's balance sheet turned out to be a wild goose chase - which ended up stressing him instead as PGW's profits grow and grow, along with its sp!


Financial stress shows itself in the downcycles Balance. In the good times you pay your debt down so you can ride through the bad times. Or, in the case of HLG, you run a 'no term debt' policy. Right now I am enjoying the good times with PGW just as you are, while that company now pays a living wage to all its employees. Plus we get to support our hard working farmers. It is possible for a good company to act morally, service their customers well and pay good dividends to shareholders. But as longer term shareholders will know PGW and its predecessor Wrightson's have had a couple of very serious debt issues in the last twenty years.

I presume from your comments you will never sell your PGW shares because you can only see blue sky ahead. But as most farmers know, one day the rain will come.

A bit of a contrast to a 'certain other company' and the wages of the guys and gals that run the HLG stores. Did HLG pay all of their contracted rent through Covid-19? Answer: No, which is why paying back the wage subsidy (even though they don't have to) might make them morally liable for backpaying rent as well. I know PGW did pay their rent through Covid-19, even though we shareholders lost a dividend on the way through.

SNOOPY

[nztx]

Financial stress shows itself in the downcycles Balance. In the good times you pay your debt down so you can ride through the bad times. Or, in the case of HLG, you run a 'no term debt' policy. I am enjoying the good times with PGW just as you are, while that company now pays a living wage to all its employees. Plus we get to support our hard working farmers. It is possible for a good company to act morally, service their customers well and pay good dividends to shareholders.

I presume from your comments you will never sell your PGW shares because you can only see blue sky ahead. But as most farmers know, one day the rain will come.

A bit of a contrast to a 'certain other company' and the wages of the guys and gals that run the HLG stores. Did HLG pay all of their contracted rent through Covid-19? Answer: No, which is why paying back the wage subsidy (even though they don't have to) might make them morally liable for backpaying rent as well. I know PGW did pay their rent through Covid-19, even though we shareholders lost a dividend on the way through.

SNOOPY

Hey come on Snoops, my old buddy - I rather like the way HLG did things & wouldn't have wished
them to have done anything differently .. ;)

Especially after all your snooping & sniffing around suggested that there may have been something smelly
in another woodpile, which encouraged me to ditch any interest at earliest opportunity .. ;)

[winner69]

Thanks for the reference.

Reads like a bit of Greenwash. ..................

SNOOPY

Sadly I think you are probably correct here Snoops

Talk the talk but just do enough to make it look like you are really serious about it. After all they had to get customers to tell them what was important...so it didn't come internally from the top.

Do what is necessary to stay in the game

The People (HGH people that is) part might be OK

As long as they don't 'waste' too much money and time on this shareholders no doubt will be happy.

[nztx]

I rather regard HLG to be the NZX Good Weather bell for how Retail performance looks across other sectors

Remember - they were first out the gate last year .. thereafter others followed .. ;)

[Waltzing]

RBA in 1 hour, see how much money they are going to pump onto the economy.

100 billion extra ... Aussi retail sales the big question and what they going to do to keep the retail economy spending...

[peat]

RBA in 1 hour, see how much money they are going to pump onto the economy.

100 billion extra ... Aussi retail sales the big question and what they going to do to keep the retail economy spending...


Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision | Media Releases | RBA (https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2021/mr-21-01.html)

yes an additional $100 billion @ 5 mill a month
In Australia, the economic recovery is well under way and has been stronger than was earlier expected. There has been strong growth in employment and a welcome decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent. Retail spending has been strong...The recovery is expected to continue,

The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range.

The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.