HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Victoria lockdown over

excellent news.

[jimdog31]

Extraordinary performance by HLG over the pandemic period .... is there a word for better than extraordinary?

Taking the last 2 half years which cover February 20/ January 21 which covid has basically had severe impacts for the whole 12 months HLG has had sales of $310m and npat of $32.3

Compare that ti the prior 12 months (Feb19/Jan20) which was a period of great consumer demand - it that period sales were $296m and npat was $28.4m

So even during a pandemic that the world hasn't seen for over a century HLG sold heaps more and made 14% more profit than they did in good prior year

Almost like a pandemic hasn't happened

Is stupendous better than extraordinary?

Uve changed your tune since this am?!

[winner69]

Uve changed your tune since this am?!

Still a very disappointing result ...even allowing for corporate welfare

But one needs to highlight the good things eh

Amazing they can make more money during a pandemic than they might have done without one,

[Waltzing]

We were wrong.... this time its different... the chart is in new territory.... rather the company is in new territory ... hot one at that ... the hot continent.

those aussie's shop more when a crisis ... might have to put some money on that aussi skippering the Italians...

[jimdog31]

Still a very disappointing result ...even allowing for corporate welfare

But one needs to highlight the good things eh

Amazing they can make more money during a pandemic than they might have done without one,

Sign of a good business!

[winner69]

Just how good is HLG online and how it has saved the day

H1 sales were up $22m on pcp - store sales were up $2m but online sales were up $20m on pcp

Increased online activity accounted for 90% of the sales increase in H1 .....wow wow

Stores closed for a period - and some caught up when stores reopened - but online was the option that saved the day

Worth at least 2 bucks 'premium' to shareprice

[BlackPeter]

Extraordinary performance by HLG over the pandemic period .... is there a word for better than extraordinary?

Taking the last 2 half years which cover February 20/ January 21 which covid has basically had severe impacts for the whole 12 months HLG has had sales of $310m and npat of $32.3

Compare that to the prior 12 months (Feb19/Jan20) which was a period of great consumer demand - it that period sales were $296m and npat was $28.4m

So even during a pandemic that the world hasn't seen for over a century HLG sold heaps more and made 14% more profit than they did in good prior year

Almost like a pandemic hasn't happened

Is stupendous better than extraordinary?

You are probably looking for the word: "supercalifragilisticexpialidocious"; I guess the report of the CDL chair earlier today really opened new worlds of vocabularies for me :):

On the other hand is this word a bit long and it might be an exaggeration anyway. I probably would use the term "not bad" to describe their results, given that I grew up in a culture where they say "not to criticize is praise enough" :);

Anyway ... not too bad. Lets hope the dream continues ...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Interesting the share price is in the red following the good news of both Melbourne and now Auckland exiting lockdowns (and rest of NZ back into level 1).

Here is a question: Do the Auckland stores qualify for the "resurgence" payments? I see the government has said it's available to qualifying businesses.

[Beagle]

Good news regarding relaxation of lockdown only came out about 4.45 p.m. this afternoon so possibly wasn't reflected in the closing price ?
Sorry I don't know the answer to your question.

[Mudfish]

I thought this was a brilliant result. I actually don't understand why the share price didn't go straight to $8+. Here's why.
EPS
2017 - 28.6c
2018 - 45.8
2019 - 48.65
2020 - 46.5
2021 - 32.7 (annualized - x2 = 65.4cps)
At $8 /65.4 = PE of 12.3. That's a stunning PE. Plus an awesome divi to come that's already been taxed. It could be large too.
I see there was a 4.5m wage/rent subsidy. So, if this was removed (which is like saying the shops would have made nothing if they were open - unlikely) that gives EPS of 50c. This gives a PE of 16, at $8 a share. Remember Briscoes runs on a PE of 18.
HLG have done very well in a very challenging environment. I can't see why this wouldn't continue. Looking at the fairly average turn over today, I'm picking people need time to understand this result and the share price will climb over the next week or two. I, just can't believe it dropped today on such a good result. Feel free to point out all my misunderstandings here.

[Beagle]

I thought this was a brilliant result. I actually don't understand why the share price didn't go straight to $8+. Here's why.
EPS
2017 - 28.6c
2018 - 45.8
2019 - 48.65
2020 - 46.5
2021 - 32.7 (annualized - x2 = 65.4cps)
At $8 /65.4 = PE of 12.3. That's a stunning PE. Plus an awesome divi to come that's already been taxed. It could be large too.
I see there was a 4.5m wage/rent subsidy. So, if this was removed (which is like saying the shops would have made nothing if they were open - unlikely) that gives EPS of 50c. This gives a PE of 16, at $8 a share. Remember Briscoes runs on a PE of 18.
HLG have done very well in a very challenging environment. I can't see why this wouldn't continue. Looking at the fairly average turn over today, I'm picking people need time to understand this result and the share price will climb over the next week or two. I, just can't believe it dropped today on such a good result. Feel free to point out all my misunderstandings here.

I agree with you. My initial revised estimate is 60-65 cents eps for the year but as others have pointed out their first half was clouded with lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman. Normally second half is a little slower than first half but if we stay clear of any protracted lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman then I'm at the top end of the 60-65 cents range.

I think its well worth remembering that built into the current price is a sizeable fully imputed dividend of ~ 25 cps payable in fairly short order in April.
Doing my usual look through any near term dividends analysis I see the forward PE based on closing adjusted price of $7.55 - 0.25 = adjusted price ex div = $7.30. eps of 65 cps gives a forecasted FY21 PE of just 11.2 which is surely the cheapest forward PE of any growth stock on the NZX ? Gross yield north of 9% too so we're being paid extremely well while we enjoy the growth that's coming.

I can't see any reason to sell or lighten my holding.

[nztx]

Interesting the share price is in the red following the good news of both Melbourne and now Auckland exiting lockdowns (and rest of NZ back into level 1).

Here is a question: Do the Auckland stores qualify for the "resurgence" payments? I see the government has said it's available to qualifying businesses.


more than 72 hours I believe, so it looks like businesses get left sucking the kumara out of this 3 day level 3 job..

However worse in the regions where whole events scheduled have had to be cancelled even when not one
lonely C-19 case seen or remotely likely here ..

The likely risk to Canterbury & Southland areas out of Auckland New Plymouth cases / possible contact with
no evidence of any direct affected travel there ? ;)


Our idiot mates on the hill look to have cost the HB Region circa $12 million out of this, possibly more
as accomodation bookings etc etc in spiralling circles then get cancelled en-masse following this .. ;)

[Waltzing]

definitely a need for more refined area levels as described by some EXPERTS.

but at the government level its a broad brush.

[see weed]

I agree with you. My initial revised estimate is 60-65 cents eps for the year but as others have pointed out their first half was clouded with lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman. Normally second half is a little slower than first half but if we stay clear of any protracted lockdowns on both sides of the Tasman then I'm at the top end of the 60-65 cents range.

I think its well worth remembering that built into the current price is a sizeable fully imputed dividend of ~ 25 cps payable in fairly short order in April.
Doing my usual look through any near term dividends analysis I see the forward PE based on closing adjusted price of $7.55 - 0.25 = adjusted price ex div = $7.30. eps of 65 cps gives a forecasted FY21 PE of just 11.2 which is surely the cheapest forward PE of any growth stock on the NZX ? Gross yield north of 9% too so we're being paid extremely well while we enjoy the growth that's coming.

I can't see any reason to sell or lighten my holding.
Thanks Beagle for all your info. Have been topping up for last 3 months and that lot is already 30k in the green:t_up: plus a nice wee div coming soon of about 10k+. There is a tray of oysters waiting for you at the next ST meeting at Oyster And Chop :cool::t_up: .

[winner69]

Hows this for a cool chart

HLG Group online sales are now about $82m (last 12 months)

Shops close during lockdown but still can buy from HLG

Pretty cool

[winner69]

Full year EPS 65 cents touted by mudfish and others

Need plenty more corporate welfare and rent relief to get that high

But good if we manage to get there

[peat]

Hows this for a cool chart

HLG Group online sales are now about $82m (last 12 months)



bars are six months though? which could well be right - just checkin !

[Beagle]

Thanks Beagle for all your info. Have been topping up for last 3 months and that lot is already 30k in the green:t_up: plus a nice wee div coming soon of about 10k+. There is a tray of oysters waiting for you at the next ST meeting at Oyster And Chop :cool::t_up: .

Thanks mate, I'll look forward to that and toasting our success. :t_up:

Very cool image Winner...I think we're on to a Winner with this one ;)

[Waltzing]

hasnt been effected by the 10 yr.. Prob still not cheap here but not expensive either.

We think its a buy at this level still. Upside to 9.50 in the sort term if they can increase the DIV slightly.

[winner69]

bars are six months though? which could well be right - just checkin !

Annual numbers (last 12 months) as at each noted period (6 monthly HLG reporting dates)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I would imagine the lower dividend paying stocks are the ones that would be most impacted by rising bond yields. No one is going to pass up the HLG dividend yield and instead go for a bond paying 1-2%. However investors in companies paying ~3% dividends might see some selling.

[Waltzing]

yes the 10 year could hit generators and some lower payers.

not this one.

It tends to be short term with the lowers div's rebuilding if no inflation turns up.

[Beagle]

Mid point of forecast range is $19.75m = 33.1 cps I suppose it might be an idea to play a guessing game of what the fully imputed interim dividend might be in April.
2020 (heavily covid affected and delayed) 15 cps when eps was 25.9 cps.
2019 Interim dividend was 20 cps when eps was 26.9 cps
2018 Interim dividend was 20 cps when eps was 25.3 cps
2017 Interim dividend was 14.5 cps when eps was 15.4 cps
2016 Interim dividend was 13.4 cps when eps was 11.4 cps
2015 Interim dividend was 14.5 cps when eps was 14.5 cps (not a typo)

Excluding Covid affected FY20 the total interim period eps for the last 5 years was 93.5 cps and total interim dividends paid were 82.4 cps = payout ratio of 88.1%

Applying that payout ratio to current period earnings of 33.1 cps suggests a pending dividend of approx 29 cps fully imputed. Assuming current earnings are maintained in the second half that suggests annual fully imputed dividends of 58 cps WOW ! That's 80.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits which puts the shares on a
potential forecast gross yield of 10.5% for FY21 which is surely the highest on the NZX !

[Waltzing]

Its not certain that second half will come in as expected or predicted by Mr B....... gosh...

It must be priced right now for a terrible second half according to MR B's calculations?

[nztx]

Mid point of forecast range is $19.75m = 33.1 cps I suppose it might be an idea to play a guessing game of what the fully imputed interim dividend might be in April.
2020 (heavily covid affected and delayed) 15 cps when eps was 25.9 cps.
2019 Interim dividend was 20 cps when eps was 26.9 cps
2018 Interim dividend was 20 cps when eps was 25.3 cps
2017 Interim dividend was 14.5 cps when eps was 15.4 cps
2016 Interim dividend was 13.4 cps when eps was 11.4 cps
2015 Interim dividend was 14.5 cps when eps was 14.5 cps (not a typo)

Excluding Covid affected FY20 the total interim period eps for the last 5 years was 93.5 cps and total interim dividends paid were 82.4 cps = payout ratio of 88.1%

Applying that payout ratio to current period earnings of 33.1 cps suggests a pending dividend of approx 29 cps fully imputed. Assuming current earnings are maintained in the second half that suggests annual fully imputed dividends of 58 cps WOW ! That's 80.5 cps gross inclusive of imputation credits which puts the shares on a
potential forecast gross yield of 10.5% for FY21 which is surely the highest on the NZX !

Or maybe payable in late March, as many companies are doing to escape the top bracket tax hike up coming .. ;)

those figures dont lie .. not a lot to not like about HLG & no need to change a thing

In the back of my mind - I wonder how much of what is being reported across the spectrum
is due to one-off enhanced results climbing out of subdued earlier Covid affected periods ?

The next reporting periods Sep/Oct 2021 will I guess tell us more later in 2021 year..

[Waltzing]

the increase in retails sales from australia dont show a huge brought forward expenditure.

It appear the HLG has just executed well.

Yes economists are expecting the increased GDP to level off later this year.

[nztx]

Unmistakenly many retail businesses have done fairly well in the period following
coming out of C-19 lockdowns .. that bounce is bound to level off for some as
things smooth out.. but the trick will be to identify the real Star performers in
the Sep 21 & following periods who manage to maintain the upwards..

I wouldn't be surprised to see HLG on that Star Performers list .. ;)

[Beagle]

Agreed, Winner posted Australian retail apparel sales data that indicated no catch up spending in the period about to be reported and in fact apparel spending still below pre covid level's.
Glasson's Australia are executing very well and gaining market share.

Extract from the announcement yesterday.
"A full announcement with financial statements for the six months ended 1 February 2021 including dividend declaration will be released to the market on 26 March 2021".
I don't think that leaves enough time to pay the dividend before the change in top tax rate kicks in on 1 April 2021.

[Waltzing]

for those who dont visit economic report web sites the data is usually in Excel format and while not really friendly the data does provide enough insight to give an investor a good idea of how economies are going without needing a business math degree.

sometimes the sites are not that friendly and they do need a bit of searching about.

https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/industry/retail-and-wholesale-trade/retail-trade-australia/latest-release#data-download

[winner69]

Agreed, Winner posted Australian retail apparel sales data that indicated no catch up spending in the period about to be reported and in fact apparel spending still below pre covid level's.
Glasson's Australia are executing very well and gaining market share.

.

HLG sales 12 months to Jan 2021 are $309m which is higher than pre-covid levels .....and about at a level where you'd think they would have been without a pandemic (ie normal times)

Probably caught up a lot of the 'lost sales' from lockdowns and made 'share' gains from having a superior online offer relative to competitors - like hard to believe that H&M didn't have an online option until October last year.

All points to sales of $330m in F21

[winner69]

HLG sales 12 months to Jan 2021 are $309m which is higher than pre-covid levels .....and about at a level where you'd think they would have been without a pandemic (ie normal times)

Probably caught up a lot of the 'lost sales' from lockdowns and made 'share' gains from having a superior online offer relative to competitors - like hard to believe that H&M didn't have an online option until October last year.

All points to sales of $330m in F21

Interestingly Briscoes last 12 months sales (same period) are up on pre-covid levels by about the same as HLG

Briscoes trading profit improvement is much better ( and without any corporate welfare) than HLG

Maybe they do deserve that higher PE after all

[Waltzing]

the local (in sweden) H & M shop is nothing like an NZ shop that would be HLG like at all. Dont know what they look like in AUS.

not really the same type of company as HLG. the sun glasses are terrible.

also but off topic a german lady pointed out to me in 2019.. so long ago now... that swedish bear is also terrible compared to german... not a beer drinker...

[nztx]

Interestingly Briscoes last 12 months sales (same period) are up on pre-covid levels by about the same as HLG

Briscoes trading profit improvement is much better ( and without any corporate welfare) than HLG

Maybe they do deserve that higher PE after all


Tighter Share Register with BGR though I believe .. may be doing the job .. ;)

[Waltzing]

ive put a request in to the team to see if we can buy some more at this current price.. They dont like NZ retail but im trying..

surely the two companies winner are not the same as much as H&M is not the same.

retail yes.

[Beagle]

Interestingly Briscoes last 12 months sales (same period) are up on pre-covid levels by about the same as HLG

Briscoes trading profit improvement is much better ( and without any corporate welfare) than HLG

Maybe they do deserve that higher PE after all

I wouldn't be too quick to judge. Like you I was a little wee bit disappointed that growth in eps wasn't slight more but in the circumstances it was a very good result and the logistical and freight challenges Covid has presented cannot be underestimated. These challenges won't always exist. Let's wait for the half year report to hear what they have to say about the difficulties they've navigated their way pretty successfully through.

[Waltzing]

even if div stays at 5% net?

surely MR B its pretty good buying even at this price.

and the company has grown.

very strong record of payment performance surely.



Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
07 Dec 2020
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
15 Dec 2020
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
27 Aug 2020
Interim
15.000c
2.647c
5.833c
04 Sep 2020
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
09 Dec 2019
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
17 Dec 2019
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
10 Apr 2019
Interim
20.000c
3.529c
7.778c
18 Apr 2019
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
07 Dec 2018
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
17 Dec 2018
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
05 Apr 2018
Interim
20.000c
3.529c
7.778c
13 Apr 2018
NZD

[Beagle]

even if div stays at 5% net?

surely MR B its pretty good buying even at this price.

and the company has grown.

very strong record of payment performance surely.



Code
Ex Dividend
Period
Amount
Supp.
Imputation
Payable
Currency


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
07 Dec 2020
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
15 Dec 2020
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
27 Aug 2020
Interim
15.000c
2.647c
5.833c
04 Sep 2020
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
09 Dec 2019
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
17 Dec 2019
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
10 Apr 2019
Interim
20.000c
3.529c
7.778c
18 Apr 2019
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
07 Dec 2018
Final
24.000c
4.235c
9.333c
17 Dec 2018
NZD


HLG (https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG)
05 Apr 2018
Interim
20.000c
3.529c
7.778c
13 Apr 2018
NZD



Excellent buying, no argument from me. I was just responding to Winner's post. My view is these are compelling value and they're my approx biggest equal holding with HGH.

I like companies with a really long track record of solid performance and when it comes to track records it doesn't get any better than HLG, NZX's oldest listed company with a great history going all the way back to 1947.

[winner69]

Been listed since 1947 but Hallensteins have been performing solidly since the 1800’s

That’s a longbtimevago

[Beagle]

been listed since 1947 but hallensteins have been performing solidly since the 1800’s

that’s a longbtimevago

WOW what an incredible history !!! Probably be around in the 2100's if this Jewel of a company isn't taken over by some greedy overseas retail predator :scared: :scared:

[winner69]

Bendix Hallenstein was a wise old guy

http://www.nzfashionmuseum.org.nz/hallensteins/

[winner69]

Hallensteins always generated healthy cash flows which was both reinvested back into the business ans paying dividends

Cash flow saw this Christchurch store revamped once

But now in a nice new glossy store in christchurch

[Beagle]

Bendix Hallenstein was a wise old guy

http://www.nzfashionmuseum.org.nz/hallensteins/

WOW...thank you so much. I really enjoyed reading about the fascinating history of our company.
I have always maintained that there was more money in selling picks, shovels, clothes and equipment to gold miners than in gold mining itself :)

[Waltzing]

Amazing.. history!!!

[Beagle]

Amazing.. history!!!

It sure is...you can't buy history like that for love nor money...oh wait, yes you can ;)

[sb9]

On course to push past $8 as soon as next week, perhaps?

[Balance]

On course to push past $8 as soon as next week, perhaps?

Will be nice to see $8.00 soon.

Has to be one of the few stocks on the NZX which will benefit from sector rotation from yield to growth - as HLG provides yield & growth & a strong balance sheet!

[nztx]

Will be nice to see $8.00 soon.

Has to be one of the few stocks on the NZX which will benefit from sector rotation from yield to growth - as HLG provides yield & growth & a strong balance sheet!


Effectively already there based on adding back the Dec 2020 div .. cycling back a bit .. ;)

Nothing short of very impressive .. :)

[tim23]

WOW...thank you so much. I really enjoyed reading about the fascinating history of our company.
I have always maintained that there was more money in selling picks, shovels, clothes and equipment to gold miners than in gold mining itself :)

I'm not sure if you can maintain that claim that -its been around for some time probably in the West Coast long before you turned up!

[Beagle]

I'm not sure if you can maintain that claim that -its been around for some time probably in the West Coast long before you turned up!

Its very nice to share in a small part of this proud companies magnificent history.

Yes, over $8 inclusive of the juicy dividend.

[DarkHorse]

I'm very happy with my outsized HLG holding too (and DSK on the ASX). For any of you interested in NZ retail history - with a lot of inspirational business - and life - wisdom and adventure thrown in - this is a must read: https://www.fishpond.co.nz/c/Books/q/man+for+our+time+robert+laidlaw

[jimdog31]

I'm very happy with my outsized HLG holding too (and DSK on the ASX). For any of you interested in NZ retail history - with a lot of inspirational business - and life - wisdom and adventure thrown in - this is a must read: https://www.fishpond.co.nz/c/Books/q/man+for+our+time+robert+laidlaw

This book inspired me to build my retail business also!

[Balance]

The real question now is, how will mr market feel?


Good question, jimdog31 and there are two observations to be made from how the sp has powered on since the 'disappointing-lower-than-ST-expected' $20m profit update :

1. Market, especially the institutional market, does not really take as much note of the forecasts made here as much as we do.

2. Market is waking up to the real potential behind this outstanding retailer, especially its growing & successful online presence, which augers well for the 2021 $10.00 initial price target I have in mind for HLG.

[Beagle]

This book inspired me to build my retail business also!

You've done very well and are in a great sector. Well done !!

[Waltzing]

those with a knowledge of the board and new CEO have any views on this new management team? Talked with them at the last AGM?

the lastest trading update is surely a win for the team.

[Waltzing]

someone said over 8 by week end...? hmm not sure the market agrees yet...

there are the believers and the rest ... surely there must be more believers soon. what more do they have to do...perhaps the shipping stories around the world of back logs is weighting on minds..

. dividend being the last question?

[Beagle]

I was careful not to be one of the posters claiming it would be $8+ this week. Rome wasn't built in a day but these guys are doing an excellent job of steadily growing this iconic business.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

someone said over 8 by week end...? hmm not sure the market agrees yet...

there are the believers and the rest ... surely there must be more believers soon. what more do they have to do...perhaps the shipping stories around the world of back logs is weighting on minds..

. dividend being the last question?

Pure speculation on my part, but I think part of the the issue for the more thinly traded non-SX50 stocks is that retail investors are using simple trailing twelve month data and don't even bother to read earnings reports. therefore they are screening stocks based on simple metrics on their app of choice and not realizing things like dividends yields & earning ratios etc look dramatically different on a forward basis.

[winner69]

Pure speculation on my part, but I think part of the the issue for the more thinly traded non-SX50 stocks is that retail investors are using simple trailing twelve month data and don't even bother to read earnings reports. therefore they are screening stocks based on simple metrics on their app of choice and not realizing things like dividends yields & earning ratios etc look dramatically different on a forward basis.

They might be more forward looking than you give them credit for - maybe they see FY21 as a one off boome of a year and then FY22 earnings declining to more 'normalised' levels - ie the fantastic F21 growth won't continue into FY22

After all HLG experienced stuff all in growth in FY19 and FY20 was less than FY19 and about the same as FY18 - not a growth company by any stretch of the imagination

[Beagle]

They might be more forward looking than you give them credit for - maybe they see FY21 as a one off boome of a year and then FY22 earnings declining to more 'normalised' levels - ie the fantastic F21 growth won't continue into FY22

After all HLG experienced stuff all in growth in FY19 and FY20 was less than FY19 and about the same as FY18 - not a growth company by any stretch of the imagination


I couldn't disagree more. Glassons Australia has been enjoying very strong growth for many years.

[winner69]

I couldn't disagree more. Glassons Australia has been enjoying very strong growth for many years.

Last 3 years profit $27.3m / $29,0m / $27,7m doesn't seem strong growth

Then FY21 might be $36m but FY22 could fall back to less than $30m ...suppose that's growth

[Waltzing]

"don't even bother to read earnings reports"

classic!!!! gosh sad but also funny... does that mean we should buy more as it DIPS!


"suppose that's growth"

averaged over 5 years? i should have done the average myself but busy with ZOOM last night.. I might be allowed to stay longer apparently and enjoy a few more summers in the sunny isles..

Takes years for europe to clear up properly and business class flights to come down in cost... we might be stuck here for a few more years!!! Zoom works! But its not really as good as being in the same room and showing off stuff. It requires a lot more work for a meeting.

[Beagle]

Last 3 years profit $27.3m / $29,0m / $27,7m doesn't seem strong growth

Then FY21 might be $36m but FY22 could fall back to less than $30m ...suppose that's growth

I always take a five year view of growth and then try and forecast the current year.
Graph this and see if you think its growth :)
2016 $13.7m
2017 $17.3m
2018 $27.4m
2019 $29m
2020 $27.8m (Covid affected)
2021 F $37m

Speculation on what FY22 might be is exactly that, pure speculation.

By my calculations based on a forecast of $37m for FY21 the CAGR for the five years to FY21 is 22% per annum.

Not sure what your "angle" is here ? (have you sold and trying to talk the price down ?), but I think on any rational analysis anyone thinking objectively would say there's clearly been very good growth in the last 5 years which is why, (as you know seeing as you also bought at ~ $2.75 in August 2016) these have more than tripled inclusive of dividends since then.

Sometimes I worry about you mate. Don't let a bad day on the market get you down.

HLG on a forward PE of just 12 so one is buying one of the best growth companies on the NZX and paying ostensibly nothing for that growth ! Don't ever let it be said there is no such thing as a free lunch on the NZX !

Here's an idea mate, graph Glassons Australia sales for the last 5 years and see what that looks like ;)

[Waltzing]

Graphed and averaged , mean... yes wide range though.

DISC: hold some. in 2 portfolios.

Fed chair speaks tuesday but we dont think he is going to whip the 10 year into shape anytime soon.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Sales Growth 2020H1 ending Feb 1st 2020 (Pre Covid):

Glassons OZ: $54 million (11% growth)
Glassons NZ: $54 million (5% growth)
Hallensteins: $52 million (1% growth)

I think its worthwhile looking at revenue growth on a more in-depth level as well - which is where Glassons Australia really stands out (from a growing ever larger revenue base). Glassons Australia is poised now to surpass Glassons NZ in revenue this year. And there is still plenty of room for growth in Australia (Glassons has 32 stores in OZ, vs 36 in NZ - do the math on store per population comparison).

The strong growth from Glassons Australia has been somewhat masked by the flat sales at hallensteins. Having said that, it actually could be a possible growth story given the menswear brand only has 4 stores in Australia.

[BlackPeter]

I always take a five year view of growth and then try and forecast the current year.
Graph this and see if you think its growth :)
2016 $13.7m
2017 $17.3m
2018 $27.4m
2019 $29m
2020 $27.8m (Covid affected)
2021 F $37m

Speculation on what FY22 might be is exactly that, pure speculation.

By my calculations based on a forecast of $37m for FY21 the CAGR for the five years to FY21 is 22% per annum.

Not sure what your "angle" is here ? (have you sold and trying to talk the price down ?), but I think on any rational analysis anyone thinking objectively would say there's clearly been very good growth in the last 5 years which is why, (as you know seeing as you also bought at ~ $2.75 in August 2016) these have more than tripled inclusive of dividends since then.

Sometimes I worry about you mate. Don't let a bad day on the market get you down.

HLG on a forward PE of just 12 so one is buying one of the best growth companies on the NZX and paying ostensibly nothing for that growth ! Don't ever let it be said there is no such thing as a free lunch on the NZX !

Here's an idea mate, graph Glassons Australia sales for the last 5 years and see what that looks like ;)

So easy to find some period which suits your argument. Your start year (2016) was their worst earnings year in over a decade, i.e. if you use this as a start date growth will always look spectacular.

My spreadsheet captures the last 10 years and just out of interest: 10 year earnings CAGR for HLG is only 3.6% per year. Are you sure you call this a growth company?

Obviously - market is looking forwards, and lets face it ... nobody can predict how growth will feature in the years to come. So - you are saying that in the past they have been just a tired old rag retailer with between 3 and 4 % growth pa, but the future will be so much different?

[Beagle]

I suggest you have a look at the growth of the Glassons brand in Australia in the last few years mate that's what's been transformational for HLG. Pretty sure this is a repeat of a debate we've had before. I use my methodology because it works. That's how I've more than tripled my investment in HLG in 4 1/2 years. Plenty more growth to come.

My argument is a pretty simple one, your viewpoint incorporates a period in time from more than half a decade ago when HLG was growing very slowly.
My viewpoint concentrates on far more recent history when HLG have grown the Glassons brand very impressively in Australia.

40 years of counting beans has taught me that the very best guide to the future is the most recent past, not the past from 5-10 years ago. Each to their own.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Also notable that they have been building their online platform and fulfilment network for the last few years - which is why they were ready for the large surge in online shopping once CV unexpectedly arrived (in comparison to other brands which were dead in the water scrambling to put together even a basic offering)

[BlackPeter]

You are clearly more invested into HLG than me :p; and I wish you good luck. Just make sure that HLG isn't turning into your ATM ... but I am sure you are smart enough to sell when the time cometh ... :):

[Beagle]

You are clearly more invested into HLG than me :p; and I wish you good luck. Just make sure that HLG isn't turning into your ATM ... but I am sure you are smart enough to sell when the time cometh ... :):

15% self imposed limit for any one share is there for a good reason because I never want to be so arrogant of my own abilities to predict the future to the extent is could cause serious damage to my portfolio if I was wrong after all "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)" ;) On the balance of probabilities I am very confident though.

[BlackPeter]

duplication - deleted - website plays up again ...

[winner69]

So easy to find some period which suits your argument. Your start year (2016) was their worst earnings year in over a decade ........



?

Yes 2016 was a disaster ......So they got Di back to sort Glassons out and she did a great job with a step change in sales through to 2018 ....but she left late 2017, job done and group sales growth slowed (like down to 3.4% in 2019)

Mary stepped up in 2019 to build upon the strategic initiatives within the business.......and now she’s stepped down.

Hmmm

[FatTed]

15% self imposed limit for any one share is there for a good reason because I never want to be so arrogant of my own abilities to predict the future to the extent is could cause serious damage to my portfolio if I was wrong after all "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)" ;) On the balance of probabilities I am very confident though.

For me I listen to my daughters who tell me that Glassons is a different shop these last three years, no longer Urban Angel or Asos, they can now get what they want from a NZ retailer.

[Beagle]

Extraordinary performance by HLG over the pandemic period .... is there a word for better than extraordinary?

Taking the last 2 half years which cover February 20/ January 21 which covid has basically had severe impacts for the whole 12 months HLG has had sales of $310m and npat of $32.3

Compare that ti the prior 12 months (Feb19/Jan20) which was a period of great consumer demand - it that period sales were $296m and npat was $28.4m

So even during a pandemic that the world hasn't seen for over a century HLG sold heaps more and made 14% more profit than they did in good prior year

Almost like a pandemic hasn't happened

Is stupendous better than extraordinary?


Just how good is HLG online and how it has saved the day

H1 sales were up $22m on pcp - store sales were up $2m but online sales were up $20m on pcp

Increased online activity accounted for 90% of the sales increase in H1 .....wow wow

Stores closed for a period - and some caught up when stores reopened - but online was the option that saved the day

Worth at least 2 bucks 'premium' to shareprice


Hows this for a cool chart

HLG Group online sales are now about $82m (last 12 months)

Shops close during lockdown but still can buy from HLG

Pretty cool


HLG sales 12 months to Jan 2021 are $309m which is higher than pre-covid levels .....and about at a level where you'd think they would have been without a pandemic (ie normal times)

Probably caught up a lot of the 'lost sales' from lockdowns and made 'share' gains from having a superior online offer relative to competitors - like hard to believe that H&M didn't have an online option until October last year.

All points to sales of $330m in F21


They might be more forward looking than you give them credit for - maybe they see FY21 as a one off boome of a year and then FY22 earnings declining to more 'normalised' levels - ie the fantastic F21 growth won't continue into FY22

After all HLG experienced stuff all in growth in FY19 and FY20 was less than FY19 and about the same as FY18 - not a growth company by any stretch of the imagination

Hard to reconcile last weeks statements with today's statements its a no growth company with questionable leadership. Hard to figure you out sometimes mate.

I think "Blind Freddy" can see that growth has picked up considerably in the last 5 years....

If you've sold and moved on good for you and good luck finding better value on the NZX.

[Balance]

Hard to reconcile last weeks statements with today's statements its a no growth company with questionable leadership. Hard to figure you out sometimes mate.

I think "Blind Freddy" can see that growth has picked up considerably in the last 5 years....

If you've sold and moved on good for you and good luck finding better value on the NZX.

W69 has obviously decided MFB is a better place for his money?

Hype over substance.

[Waltzing]

Well at least they provide a very very constant dividend payment even if they are a bit like a one day batting team. On form one year and bowled out the next. Overall they make the decisions to get the side back in the ball game when they are down and out.

[winner69]

I think "Blind Freddy" can see that growth has picked up considerably in the last 5 years....

.

Sales growth has picked up in the last 5 years - I agree

But as I’ve said numerous times HLG group haven’t turned that sales growth into growing profits

After the big jump in earnings from 2017 to 2018 (thanks Di) earnings have been pretty flat (and some would contend that on a covid adjusted basis the reported increase in H121 isn’t really ‘normal’)

[Balance]

Well at least they provide a very very constant dividend payment even if they are a bit like a one day batting team. On form one year and bowled out the next. Overall they make the decisions to get the side back in the ball game when they are down and out.

I must admit W69’s logic to favour MFB over HLG intrigued me.

I guess one cannot fault W69’s confidence with the 5% gross yield from My Food Bag?

MFB dividend to be paid from the very same money they are raising from the IPO! I recall a company doing the same at an IPO - Feltex.

[winner69]

I must admit W69’s logic to favour MFB over HLG intrigued me.

I guess one cannot fault W69’s confidence with the 5% gross yield from My Food Bag?

MFB dividend to be paid from the very same money they are raising from the IPO! I recall a company doing the same at an IPO - Feltex.

Probably won't be a MFB shareholder time dividend comes around

But 240 exit price good gain from 185 over a few months

And I'll probably still be collecting the HLG dividend in the meantime unless the old capital preservation trick kicks into play

[Balance]

Probably won't be a MFB shareholder time dividend comes around

But 240 exit price good gain from 185 over a few months

And I'll probably still be collecting the HLG dividend in the meantime unless the old capital preservation trick kicks into play

Cannot fault your view & strategy on MFB if the hype lives up to the push by the promotors. :t_up:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Well sales and profits are indeed two different measures, but its much easier to grow profits if you are growing sales (whereas trying to grow profits on flat or declining sales is very difficult).

One factor to consider is future profit margins are potentially impacted quite a bit by currency movement. If one looks at a 10 year chart for the kiwi dollar you will see that the 2016 HLG profit slump coincides with a large fall in value of the NZD (not saying that caused the poor profitability, but it certainly didn't help). Currently the NZD is at a multi year high, so while freight costs are temporarily spiked higher by Covid chaos, once that settles back down to normal we might find HLG does very well in the current favourable exchange rate environment.

HLG hedges foreign exchange contraxts up to one year in advance so the further we move into 2021 as the contracts roll over, the better the currency situation should get (presuming the NZD dollar stays in a similar range to what it is in now - or higher would be better of course).

[Balance]

Well sales and profits are indeed two different measures, but its much easier to grow profits if you are growing sales (whereas trying to grow profits on flat or declining sales is very difficult).

One factor to consider is future profit margins are potentially impacted quite a bit by currency movement. If one looks at a 10 year chart for the kiwi dollar you will see that the 2016 HLG profit slump coincides with a large fall in value of the NZD (not saying that caused the poor profitability, but it certainly didn't help). Currently the NZD is at a multi year high, so while freight costs are temporarily spiked higher by Covid chaos, once that settles back down to normal we might find HLG does very well in the current favourable exchange rate environment.

HLG hedges foreign exchange contraxts up to one year in advance so the further we move into 2021 as the contracts roll over, the better the currency situation should get (presuming the NZD dollar stays in a similar range to what it is in now - or higher would be better of course).

Actually, good companies invest in growth at the expense of short term profits.

When the sales growth strategy is successful, profits will grow - that's how I was taught in my economics classes anyway.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Actually, good companies invest in growth at the expense of short term profits.

When the sales growth strategy is successful, profits will grow - that's how I was taught in my economics classes anyway.

Yes, I agree.

[Balance]

Yes, I agree.

And what have HLG been doing?

Investing in growth - Glassons Australia & online platform.

And we are getting the results - looking extremely positive.

[Waltzing]

"MFB dividend to be paid from the very same money they are raising from the IPO! I recall a company doing the same at an IPO - Feltex."

oh classic ..... under arm blowing from that side umpire..or no ball from the umpires... just shows how much reg work there is to be done on the companies act relation to dividends..

anyway it all starting to look like the days of champagne IPO's of the 70's - 80's are back..oh those helicon days ..

and then came empire rose... and oh the days just got headier...

french champagnes on ice for end of summer..

[winner69]

"MFB dividend to be paid from the very same money they are raising from the IPO! I recall a company doing the same at an IPO - Feltex."

oh classic ..... under arm blowing from that side umpire..or no ball from the umpires... just shows how much reg work there is to be done on the companies act relation to dividends..

anyway it all starting to look like the days of champagne IPO's of the 70's - 80's are back..oh those helicon days ..

and then came empire rose... and oh the days just got headier...

french champagnes on ice for end of summer..

Empire Rose was magnificent

I drew her in the Melbourne Cup sweep that the big wigs of a big NZ listed company were running. Entry was 200 bucks and I think I only got roped in to make up the numbers (not enough big wigs)

It was cool when Empire Rose won but when the goodies were handed out it was 200 bucks short and had a note saying the big chief honcho still had to pay ha ha

Took several visits to the 8th floor with its plush surroundings to get the cash ....apparently he got told about the note on my whiteboard saying Pike owed me 200 from the cup sweep .....moral, message always gets through if you try hard enough

[Beagle]

Well sales and profits are indeed two different measures, but its much easier to grow profits if you are growing sales (whereas trying to grow profits on flat or declining sales is very difficult).

One factor to consider is future profit margins are potentially impacted quite a bit by currency movement. If one looks at a 10 year chart for the kiwi dollar you will see that the 2016 HLG profit slump coincides with a large fall in value of the NZD (not saying that caused the poor profitability, but it certainly didn't help). Currently the NZD is at a multi year high, so while freight costs are temporarily spiked higher by Covid chaos, once that settles back down to normal we might find HLG does very well in the current favourable exchange rate environment.

HLG hedges foreign exchange contraxts up to one year in advance so the further we move into 2021 as the contracts roll over, the better the currency situation should get (presuming the NZD dollar stays in a similar range to what it is in now - or higher would be better of course).

Well said. Exchange rate was indeed very tough in FY16 and other factors too. Extract from FY16 annual report

1. A lower exchange rate has had a negative impact on gross
margin which has fallen 3 basis points from 59.3% in the
prior year to 56.6% in the current year. We have substantially
consumed forward cover at unattractive rates and purchases
for the key December trading period will be made at a more
attractive rate.
2. Record mild temperatures on both sides of the Tasman during
early winter resulted in key winter categories failing to match
last year sales. A return to normalised winter temperatures has
allowed the Company to trade through winter stocks although
this had been at a lower than usual margin.
3. Difficulties in securing effective management for Glassons have
caused a lack of product continuity and fashionability which has
impacted both sales and margin. That key issue was addressed
with the appointment of Di Humphries in April 2016.

The establishment of distribution center's on both sides of the Tasman positions them extremely well for strong online sales growth and as you say, the currency is certainly a decent tailwind going forward. FA and TA both signal this as a compelling hold but then there's the history and credibility they've earned too over so many decades.

Tim Glasson's son took over the CEO role at Glassons Australia a few years ago and look what's happened to growth there since then !

[winner69]

Noodles did a great analysis a few years ago showing the relationship between gross margins and NZD

Was a quite strong relationship when he did it but that relationship has broken down in recent years

Not always easy to do but product pricing should mitigate currency fluctuations (esp if you have more than 5 stock turns a year)

Maybe currency was just an excuse in 2016 and demonstrated they didn’t have much pricing power ..or just stuffed up the pricing of goods for sale.

[Waltzing]

"Empire Rose was magnificent"

i will be raising a toast to those no longer with us.. god bless them all, just paintings on the wall.

[Balance]

Well, in this period of sector rotation out of yield stocks into growth & inflation-benefiting stocks, let me know if there's one other stock on the NZX which offers the combination of high yield and growth like HLG.

I undertake to switch half my HLG shareholding into the other stock.

[Waltzing]

"fed chair this morning" said what inflation or did i miss the statements..

its a time when the ten years causes people to panic and then as the yields rebuild across the economies it has less and less effect.

it unlikely to hit 6% again any time soon. If it gets past 3 it will be lucky and that will cause a lot of dislocation for a while.

[Beagle]

Well, in this period of sector rotation out of yield stocks into growth & inflation-benefiting stocks, let me know if there's one other stock on the NZX which offers the combination of high yield and growth like HLG.

I undertake to switch half my HLG shareholding into the other stock.

Only other one that comes close in my opinion is HGH but I have a truck load of those already too, (approx 15% portfolio allocation to each.)

[Waltzing]

road past the hounds a few days ago lying around in the hot sun...boy that hound has a full bowl of tasty bones.. the leader of the pack.

real hunting hounds compound not a made up story..in the heart of the golden triangle.

[Biscuit]

Only other one that comes close in my opinion is HGH but I have a truck load of those already too, (approx 15% portfolio allocation to each.)

Oh, we were just discussing that on the DGL thread.

[James108]

What on earth are you trying to say Waltzing?

[Balance]

Only other one that comes close in my opinion is HGH but I have a truck load of those already too, (approx 15% portfolio allocation to each.)

Got plenty of them too - HGH - from the Marac to Heartland days!

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/transport-minister-open-to-hearing-ideas-from-gathering-of-sectors-in-choked-freight-supply-chain/74BAAC7CAOKY4PXVYIXDFZFRLQ/ Paywalled.
Talkfest to try and unclog supply chain issues. "Container handlers and freight, port and shipping operators will next week have another crack at gathering to find solutions to New Zealand's supply chain congestion troubles, after a Covid-19 outbreak derailed a first effort. A restricted number of sector representatives will brainstorm in Auckland on Monday at a workshop organised by the Ministry of Transport".

[Waltzing]

"global supply broken"

been a story for a while as the chinese also take containers back to china from the US empty.. not all perfect out there in shipping sea world.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/transport-minister-open-to-hearing-ideas-from-gathering-of-sectors-in-choked-freight-supply-chain/74BAAC7CAOKY4PXVYIXDFZFRLQ/ Paywalled.
Talkfest to try and unclog supply chain issues. "Container handlers and freight, port and shipping operators will next week have another crack at gathering to find solutions to New Zealand's supply chain congestion troubles, after a Covid-19 outbreak derailed a first effort. A restricted number of sector representatives will brainstorm in Auckland on Monday at a workshop organised by the Ministry of Transport".

These guys haven’t figured out to use Zoom yet? My confidence is not high....

[Waltzing]

perhaps that tells us that a certain group want to get back to that much sort after lifestyle called business travel and eats and drinks...now travels stocks have rallied a bit this week very disappointing as we havnt rolled out NZX fast enough yet.

[see weed]

I was careful not to be one of the posters claiming it would be $8+ this week. Rome wasn't built in a day but these guys are doing an excellent job of steadily growing this iconic business.
SP dropping a bit today. Could be the div chasers leaving for a couple of weeks to chase other divs, and will come back before the big div announcement towards the end of march. If sp goes below $7 then will jump in and buy more:).

[jimdog31]

SP dropping a bit today. Could be the div chasers leaving for a couple of weeks to chase other divs, and will come back before the big div announcement towards the end of march. If sp goes below $7 then will jump in and buy more:).

Low volume.

[Waltzing]

its always been a traders dream as we would never hold overweight many this part of the world. But if your a local only investor who believes in the long run batting average for this team its a hold not a trade.

[winner69]

HLG near the top of the losers board today

Hey waltzing - the cyclical downturn starting to happen?

[Waltzing]

come on HLG your not supposed to follow your normal patterns...

[Waltzing]

"What on earth are you trying to say Waltzing?"

sorry some posts are for MR B only and the photo's of hunting hounds that Mr B has posted...

Silly post... ill give myself a red mark.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Holy moly. I’ve got some cash available tomorrow morning, hopefully I”ll catch some HLG at these sort of prices then. Now trading under $7 if you consider the upcoming dividend payment.

[nztx]

HLG near the top of the losers board today

Hey waltzing - the cyclical downturn starting to happen?


When's the announcement due on the size of the golden eggs to be laid ? ;)

[nztx]

Holy moly. I’ve got some cash available tomorrow morning, hopefully I”ll catch some HLG at these sort of prices then. Now trading under $7 if you consider the upcoming dividend payment.


Roger that .. where's the queue .. have to beat Mr B to the queue .. :)

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=xXM4nyaX&id=702AEBF0FD1E5F5F3AD64958ABA8A4A824131BA1&thid=OIP.xXM4nyaXASd2BR1mmCHagwAAAA&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fthumb9.shutterstock.com%2fd isplay_pic_with_logo%2f902530%2f579755092%2fstock-photo-breed-beagle-dog-standing-on-the-grass-579755092.jpg&exph=320&expw=450&q=beagle+straining+at+the+lead&simid=608007816032289974&ck=313EF9106CD50F9346E2871B3AC5113B&selectedIndex=6&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0 Being held back by the lead (AKA 15% self imposed portfolio allocation limit)...time for some creative accounting me thinks.
On Monday it will be March so if I take off the 25 cent divvy due the following month and juggle a few other figures around I can get it down to 14.25% which gives me a bit more slack in the lead...or I could just bust the lead off and run free :t_up:

Thank you LasereyeKiwi...good point about it being just under $7 taking off the dividend due soon.

[Greekwatchdog]

If you put an "I" where the "U" is it might describe it better..

[Waltzing]

"Hey waltzing - the cyclical downturn starting to happen?"


Winner(n)

oh no ive been back in the country to long!!!

the fab south island white wines are softing my selling attitudes.

im a believer !!! im willing it back up!

the spell of the long white cloud.

[Balance]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=xXM4nyaX&id=702AEBF0FD1E5F5F3AD64958ABA8A4A824131BA1&thid=OIP.xXM4nyaXASd2BR1mmCHagwAAAA&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fthumb9.shutterstock.com%2fd isplay_pic_with_logo%2f902530%2f579755092%2fstock-photo-breed-beagle-dog-standing-on-the-grass-579755092.jpg&exph=320&expw=450&q=beagle+straining+at+the+lead&simid=608007816032289974&ck=313EF9106CD50F9346E2871B3AC5113B&selectedIndex=6&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0 Being held back by the lead (AKA 15% self imposed portfolio allocation limit)...time for some creative accounting me thinks.
On Monday it will be March so if I take off the 25 cent divvy due the following month and juggle a few other figures around I can get it down to 14.25% which gives me a bit more slack in the lead...or I could just bust the lead off and run free :t_up:

Thank you LasereyeKiwi...good point about it being just under $7 taking off the dividend due soon.

Indiscriminate selling yesterday by traders and cautious /nervous investors in some stocks like HLG which have performed exceptionally well YTD, rather than anything inherently wrong with the companies or economic settings imo.

If inflation becomes a problem (which appears to be main reason for recent global selloff), then we know that well managed cyclical stocks with proven track records are actually the best inflation hedge.

And HLG falls squarely into that category.

So I will be there on Monday to pick up a few more too if the selling continues.

[Waltzing]

as the 10 year rises over all vix should increase... banks could be the trade.. people buying clothes dont look at the 10 year nor the vix.


Quotes from Cramer
"feb job reports if strong could trigger selling"

we will keep holding this stock (very small as we sold and rebought a very small amount)

But in another portfolio trade some if it drops back to support lines.

[Beagle]

Financials have pricing power and so do retailers. I think extra supply chain costs are well known by the general public as its been all over the news in recent months and generally speaking there's a growing acceptance, (perhaps somewhat begrudgingly), that if you want something its going to cost a bit more because of extra costs to get it here and in some cases the extra cost to manufacture it.

I think the H's (HGH and HLG) have pricing power and with their very high yield, and compelling value in terms of PE ratio they will both do well in a rising interest rate / economic growth environment.

I think this is a market where value outperforms growth stocks.

[Waltzing]

Could be some nice buying this week in a few stocks under level red. Picked it by 20 minutes over end of summer wine.

[Beagle]

Wage subsidy kicks in again right across the whole country. Yeah there could be a few people looking to throw the baby out with the bathwater, so too speak.

[winner69]

Wage subsidy kicks in again right across the whole country. Yeah there could be a few people looking to throw the baby out with the bathwater, so too speak.

That’s good .....hope they get plenty as HLG needs as much corporate welfare they can get their hands on to turn what’s looking like a not so good full year into a more respectable one.

Shame they need to rely on corporate welfare to achieve this


Jeez you can’t stop stirring can you ....note I didn’t mention ‘subsidy’

[Balance]

That’s good .....hope they get plenty as HLG needs as much corporate welfare they can get their hands on to turn what’s looking like a not so good full year into a more respectable one.

Shame they need to rely on corporate welfare to achieve this


Jeez you can’t stop stirring can you ....note I didn’t mention ‘subsidy’

Has Trevor Mallard paid back the $330k back to taxpayers yet, W69?

[Beagle]

Edit....we've been there already...best to not go around in circles.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

The wage subsidy is smaller than the amount HLG pays its employees - pretending it is somehow advantageous for HLG to be closing its Auckland stores for a week, and people being discouraged to visit stores over the rest of the nation under level 2, is entirely disingenuous.

[Waltzing]

Public company standard to be implemented by the IRD and administered as a reserve in the balance sheet to be handled like ICA account by the IRD and reconciled in the year after the pandemic ends. Because the Minister of finance and the entire cabinet would hardly know a debit from a credit im afraid this will go on and on. No standard to be administered for public companies by the IRD means a farce.

More VIX mean this things goes back to being a trade for us as the COM Props drop out and banks come back to focus. Already missed big profits on our bank positions but it best to wait before opening fire again on the banks.

[Balance]

The wage subsidy is smaller than the amount HLG pays its employees - pretending it is somehow advantageous for HLG to be closing its Auckland stores for a week, and people being discouraged to visit stores over the rest of the nation under level 2, is entirely disingenuous.

Some posters like W69 prefer that the wage subsidy is squandered on companies which are not well managed - just like the welfare payments to the gangs.

[Waltzing]

next support level 6.30

[LaserEyeKiwi]

not the bargain I expected this morning - I think investors realising how good the dividend yield is, and that the lockdowns are temporary which won't impact dividends.

[see weed]

not the bargain I expected this morning - I think investors realising how good the dividend yield is, and that the lockdowns are temporary which won't impact dividends.
Nail on the head. But, between me you and the fence post, I wouldn't leave it too long if you want to buy in for the dividend. On 26/3/21 HLG will announce the big juicy div and ex div date, and every man or woman and their dog will want a bit of the action. I am planning on buying an extra 30,000 a bit before that date, and not too worried what I pay for them, just for a quick div strip:).

[Waltzing]

"just for a quick div strip" "not worried what price.". gosh OK..

a quick draw off the bottom for the last 5 years its now heading into blue skies..

30,000 off market or on?

[Entrep]

"
30,000 off market or on?

The sharetrader OTC desk of course, all the whales play there

[Waltzing]

In the GFC we used off market as in direct purchases via cut rate broking but i would not call it OTC. Not sure what your definition for OTC in NZ is. OTC does not always involve the exchange directly and might be called off market.

We have from time to time been offered off market trading options in NZ. We use off market for our own internal transfers of course as does everyone else.

[bull....]

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back.

some posters dont get it but proof is in performance of the stocks. end of story

[Waltzing]

The public company accounting standards for GDP supplements for employment should have been administered as a reserve in accounts of public company accounts by the IRD and should still be on the books until removed by the IRD.

Comparing retail companies across market sectors is almost apples and oranges.

[winner69]

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back.

some posters dont get it but proof is in performance of the stocks. end of story

Wow bull ....that’s spooky

My response is on WHS thread where you first posted .....HLG shareholders possibly $100m down the gurgler

[bull....]

Wow bull ....that’s spooky

My response is on WHS thread where you first posted .....HLG shareholders possibly $100m down the gurgler

and hlg perception by the public could translate in time to $ loss too

[Ohdoyle]

and hlg perception by the public could translate in time to $ loss too


Possible, but I don't think the public are tracking every single company and what they do. It seems to require media attention to focus this.

Although locally I notice specific industries can face ire. I personally kept track of which local accountants and lawyers claimed the subsidy. Found it to be generally a good indicator of the sort of people I'd want to work with

[Balance]

In the last 6 months:

WHS is up 66%

BGP is up 55%

and HLG is up 72%

Proving conclusively that bull ... and W69 are full of shxt.

W69 - has Trevor Mallard paid back the $300k yet?

[bull....]

In the last 6 months:

WHS is up 66%

BGP is up 55%

and HLG is up 72%

Proving conclusively that bull ... and W69 are full of shxt.

W69 - has Trevor Mallard paid back the $300k yet?

yes your correct in your 6 mth comparison but the comparison is in the time frame from when subsidies were starting to be paid back. if the comparison holds true bgp and whs will continue to out perform hlg in the future you can call it the bull theorum lol

[Balance]

yes your correct in your 6 mth comparison but the comparison is in the time frame from when subsidies were starting to be paid back. if the comparison holds true bgp and whs will continue to out perform hlg in the future you can call it the bull theorum lol

And since the market sell-off since 23 March :

BGP is up 118%

WHS is up 126%

and

HLG is up 322%

So you can keep your bull theorem to yourself (& W69 who has yet to answer about Trevor Mallard's $300k pay back). :t_up:

[bull....]

And since the market sell-off since 23 March :

BGP is up 118%

WHS is up 126%

and

HLG is up 322%

So you can keep your bull theorem to yourself (& W69 who has yet to answer about Trevor Mallard's $300k pay back). :t_up:

we talking about the future not the past , smart investors sold hlg for not paying the subsidy back and brought into the far superior companies who understand branding and have and probably will be rewarded according to the bull theorum

[Beagle]

in the last 3 mths

whs is up 29%
bgp is up 29%

and hallensteins is up 6.5% so as you say winner it looks like the winners were the stocks that paid the wage subsidy back.

some posters dont get it but proof is in performance of the stocks. end of story


Wow bull ....that’s spooky

My response is on WHS thread where you first posted .....HLG shareholders possibly $100m down the gurgler

Sorry guys, I'm dizzy from going around and around in circles so have lost count. Is this the tenth or eleventh time you guys have brought this spurious argument up ?

[Balance]

we talking about the future not the past , smart investors sold hlg for not paying the subsidy back and brought into the far superior companies who understand branding and have and probably will be rewarded according to the bull theorum

W69 and you have been so wrong about HLG, you can keep your bullshxt. :D

[Beagle]

we talking about the future not the past , smart investors sold hlg for not paying the subsidy back and brought into the far superior companies who understand branding and have and probably will be rewarded according to the bull theorum

You're bull theorem has even less credibility than the Couta1 theorem :p

[bull....]

Sorry guys, I'm dizzy from going around and around in circles so have lost count. Is this the tenth or eleventh time you guys have brought this spurious argument up ?

always good to remind people there are better companies when it comes to social responsibilities

[Beagle]

always good to remind people there are better companies when it comes to social responsibilities

I head you the first two dozen times. Its getting super boring and repetitive you and Winner recycling the same B.S. over and over and over again countless times.

[winner69]

W69 and you have been so wrong about HLG, you can keep your bullshxt. :D

Yep, just like you say mate I also reckon HLG share price will be 10 bucks soon (should be there by now but it ain’t)

I better stop making bullshxt (spell check changes that to bullish :)) predictions

[Balance]

I head you the first two dozen times. Its getting super boring and repetitive you and Winner recycling the same B.S. over and over and over again countless times.

It's okay, Beagle - everyone who owns HLG shares know from previous postings that bull ... has been one of the biggest incessantly negative posters on the stock.

He even got called out by couta1 for his postings last year. :D

Good to see that he simply cannot get over his postings.

[dibble]

always good to remind people there are better companies when it comes to social responsibilities

We live in an age where nearly half of america voted for a chap who'd just spent the last 4 years trying desperately to convince the world how corrupt and incompetent he is. Public perception is all over the place.
Do you think Tony from Temuka is going to make a fuss about something that happened a year ago (and who can remember a week ago these days) and adamantly choose to wear his rugby shorts to his daughter's wedding instead of the nice $49 chinos he covets at in the HLG window?

Public perception (if indeed there is any on this matter) quickly evaporates with a need or good price. Especially the latter.

[see weed]

"just for a quick div strip" "not worried what price.". gosh OK..

a quick draw off the bottom for the last 5 years its now heading into blue skies..

30,000 off market or on?
I have never done off market. As long as they pay me 10k to 12k div I will be happy with that. March is my TPTD month= Transfer Profits To Dividends. I buy into anything paying a div and try and make a loss on ex div day. ;)

[Beagle]

I have never done off market. As long as they pay me 10k to 12k div I will be happy with that. March is my TPTD month= Transfer Profits To Dividends. I buy into anything paying a div and try and make a loss on ex div day. ;)

I believe that makes you a member of the 50,000+ share club, only 114 members according to the last annual report. Welcome aboard but I'd be inclined to stay a member if were you ;)

[arekaywhy]

please keep the "theorems" coming through team

Even if you get paid out for it and everyone jumps on with why you're an idiot, that's ok, maybe they can't articulate the argument as well as they would have liked, but argue none the less.

Just keep in mind there are a lot of lurkers that like to see these arguments to formulate their own opinions, so don't be deterred. Think of it as a test in fire.

[bull....]

It's okay, Beagle - everyone who owns HLG shares know from previous postings that bull ... has been one of the biggest incessantly negative posters on the stock.

He even got called out by couta1 for his postings last year. :D

Good to see that he simply cannot get over his postings.

and we know who was right eh balance .... not couta as the hlg price plummeted to $2

[see weed]

I believe that makes you a member of the 50,000+ share club, only 114 members according to the last annual report. Welcome aboard but I'd be inclined to stay a member if were you ;)
The most at any one time was 125k back 3 years ago to get a 20k div., but sp was in the $3.30c to $3.60c bracket. Sold them over the following 1 to 5 months and made an extra 55k after fees :).

[Balance]

and we know who was right eh balance .... not couta as the hlg price plummeted to $2

Definitely not you, that’s for sure. Anybody heeding your postings on HLG would have missed out on one of the best gains on the market in 2020.

And one thing I must respect about couta1, right or wrong, he puts his money and credibility where his mouth is, and is transparent about it.

[alokdhir]

Can anyone enlighten me what happens to High Divvy stocks when interest rates start rising ...ASB increased its term deposit rates big time and more to come in the days ahead

Will it help Divvy stocks or it will contract their PE ??

Divvy stocks better in this environment or growth stocks as it has the potential to contract whole market PE ...But where better ??

[Beagle]

Can anyone enlighten me what happens to High Divvy stocks when interest rates start rising ...ASB increased its term deposit rates big time and more to come in the days ahead

Will it help Divvy stocks or it will contract their PE ??

Divvy stocks better in this environment or growth stocks as it has the potential to contract whole market PE ...But where better ??

Can I suggest you watch a truckload of CNBC - Channel 91 on SKY. This red hot debate has been raging for a long time now and the general consensus for FY21 seems to be that value now trumps growth in a rising interest rate environment. Companies with pricing power such as financials and retailers will do well in this environment. A report I read yesterday suggested a staggering 67% of retailers in N.Z. were looking at raising their prices in the near future. Good example was I saw a confidential dealer memorandum from one of N.Z's leading boat manufactures a couple of weeks ago. Prices went up 7-10% across the board on their various models effective 1 March 2021. There's only so long retailers and manufacturers will suck up the extra freight and production costs they're wearing and their patience is obviously wearing thin.

The ASB term deposit rate for 5 years went up to a "whopping" 1.75%...I doubt that will appeal to many HLG shareholders looking at a ~ 10% gross yield :cool:

[bull....]

Definitely not you, that’s for sure. Anybody heeding your postings on HLG would have missed out on one of the best gains on the market in 2020.

And one thing I must respect about couta1, right or wrong, he puts his money and credibility where his mouth is, and is transparent about it.

my postings were mainly before covid.
i did say people who brought around $2 did well i believe around mid year

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Can anyone enlighten me what happens to High Divvy stocks when interest rates start rising ...ASB increased its term deposit rates big time and more to come in the days ahead

Will it help Divvy stocks or it will contract their PE ??

Divvy stocks better in this environment or growth stocks as it has the potential to contract whole market PE ...But where better ??

low/no growth stocks paying dividends close to the bank term deposit rate (~2%) one suspects will be negatively impacted more. However those growth companies with forward dividend yields ~5% or more (HLG, HGH, TRA, KPG) aren't going to have dividend focused investors abandon them in favour of a 1.75% term deposit interest rate with no possible capital growth.

[Waltzing]

"truckload of CNBC"

i was whatching the day when Joe said sometime in 2008

"will sub prime be contagious"

thats when i thought thats it finally someone going to start talking what actually happening..

and oh dear im thinking its been a long time since a full on depression and all those debt laden balance sheets are going to explode.

I said at the time to my parent who was an accountant.. "get your big clients to gold"

Lucky it wasnt needed....

You need to have been whatching for well over a decade... bit late now...good time to start for the next decade.

But the real stuff is to find what alarming black swan articles are being written by an economist and being laughed at by central bankers when they hold there big talk fests.

[Waltzing]

Interest rate moving to and above 2% before settling down as the bull markets kicks in again.

COM PROP stocks paying 2-3% move to being a trade along with banks except HGH (more like a finance company but MR B can enlighten us on that one.

dont underestimate FEB to talk the rate down by threatening to buy the long end and sell the short end of the yield curve.

[Waltzing]

yesterday was a lovely day to buy HLG and sadly we missed out. was hoping for a little under 7 and that never happened. NO chance this stock is going to follow it normal pattern unless they really run into trouble with aus sales.

we picked up SKC... yes i know MR B not a clean stock.

[Beagle]

Its never too late to learn from others. Some very smart people on CNBC. If I had to pick my favorite guy to listen too it would be this guy. https://www.cnbc.com/michael-santoli/ He has a real knack for distilling down all the incredible amount of market noise into what really matters. When he speaks I listen carefully.
Becky Quick is pretty cool too but I think she likes Warren Buffet too much and idolizes him...possibly an occupational hazard :)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Actually just cancelled my sky subscription (moving to Skys online streaming products - SkySportNow & NEON for less than half the price and a much better viewing experience) - so will be giving up CNBC (wasn't worth the $60 a month price difference), but I'll be watching Bloomberg TV anyway (free on any streaming platform) which in general I find has much more in-depth coverage and superb hosts.

[Waltzing]

Off Topic: But public companies need to be very very care going forward in there services like HLG with on line systems.

Not happy with many of these platforms in terms of data security so we cancelled all data feeds from them including boom berg after we started getting some very strange email probs...all our data now is never stored in databases in the cloud.

i shouldnt put this up here but you need to be very very careful.

One software library we have is a russian one created in eastern Donbas and moscow. The library hacked the runtime of a major database API at runtime to gain access to live data structure file control blocks.

Now we use this library a lot but it really opened ones eyes when the engineer says to you well we can buy this stuff off the russians via this french guy and get all this instant database power (2007) and i said yes lets buy it!

Never looked back but it really shows you that the public doesnt realise that cloud databases and even local data needs very very careful management.

[dibble]

low/no growth stocks paying dividends close to the bank term deposit rate (~2%) one suspects will be negatively impacted more. However those growth companies with forward dividend yields ~5% or more (HLG, HGH, TRA, KPG) aren't going to have dividend focused investors abandon them in favour of a 1.75% term deposit interest rate with no possible capital growth.

I'd suggest keeping an eye on gearing, with interest rates this low a small rise can materially affect int expense so the likes of KPG may have their wings clipped. Whereas HLG has little such exposure.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'd suggest keeping an eye on gearing, with interest rates this low a small rise can materially affect int expense so the likes of KPG may have their wings clipped. Whereas HLG has little such exposure.

Not really the correct thread for it - but KPG has relatively low gearing and much of its borrowing was fixed at higher rates than now, so its a tailwind for them at present, not a headwind.

[Beagle]

yesterday was a lovely day to buy HLG and sadly we missed out. was hoping for a little under 7 and that never happened. NO chance this stock is going to follow it normal pattern unless they really run into trouble with aus sales.

we picked up SKC... yes i know MR B not a clean stock.

Its dirty money mate. You should have heard the "hounding" (and not just from me by any means), Barramundi directors got in their 2019 annual meeting over their investment in Aristocrat https://www.aristocrat.com/
The barking was loud and widespread...but to their credit they promised to do a review of their ESG on it and sold out shortly after that annual meeting, probably too scared of another roasting lol

[Waltzing]

For MR B Only.


The family was associated with a royal sport of kings that made its money by people betting on four legged racing.... im afraid we are associated for decades now with betting but we draw the line at atomic weapons and also anything to do with pollution.

well im about to use a car today... :eek2:

as you know i love my sweden and much to the local looks of disapproval i training only using european decals..

in sweden i never use a car if i can help it..flying high of course is major pollution.

Profits for sky will be down until the tourism money returns.

HLG is a good local investment for decades now. What a team. I have local knowledge of the Glassons sales team and they are a great bunch of young people.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

FYI: President Biden just announced that USA will produce enough vaccinations to cover every American adult by end of May, 2 months earlier than previously planned.

Vaccination floodgates are opening, won't be long until lockdowns are a thing of the past.

[Beagle]

HLG is a good local investment for decades now. What a team. I have local knowledge of the Glassons sales team and they are a great bunch of young people.

Someone went to the annual meeting and reckoned the team were young and really cool and most of them looked like they could be models.

Anyway....I'm looking forward to next months 25 cent fully imputed dividend, that'll also be very cool :cool:

[hamish]

My 14 yr old daughter advises me that Glassons has gone viral on social media in US recently Some social influencer (don't know who) aged 16 says it's cool to have Glassons stuff, she just "found them" to her 50million network.

Apparently the Kiwi and Aussie girls are telling the US to back off and buy US !! Prices going up? daughter says jeans were $60, now $70 or $80.....

... Probs 70% her clothes from Glassons WLG CBD.

[Beagle]

Some pretty cool new looks for Autumn https://www.glassons.com/New

[Habits]

My 14 yr old daughter advises me that Glassons has gone viral on social media in US recently Some social influencer (don't know who) aged 16 says it's cool to have Glassons stuff, she just "found them" to her 50million network.

Apparently the Kiwi and Aussie girls are telling the US to back off and buy US !! Prices going up? daughter says jeans were $60, now $70 or $80.....

... Probs 70% her clothes from Glassons WLG CBD.

Sooo 21st century and not surprising ... middle earth is as cool as italy is to kiwis

[Habits]

My 14 yr old daughter advises me that Glassons has gone viral on social media in US recently Some social influencer (don't know who) aged 16 says it's cool to have Glassons stuff, she just "found them" to her 50million network.

Apparently the Kiwi and Aussie girls are telling the US to back off and buy US !! Prices going up? daughter says jeans were $60, now $70 or $80.....

... Probs 70% her clothes from Glassons WLG CBD.

Sooo 21st century and not surprising ... middle earth is as cool as italy is to kiwis

[LaserEyeKiwi]

My 14 yr old daughter advises me that Glassons has gone viral on social media in US recently Some social influencer (don't know who) aged 16 says it's cool to have Glassons stuff, she just "found them" to her 50million network.

Apparently the Kiwi and Aussie girls are telling the US to back off and buy US !! Prices going up? daughter says jeans were $60, now $70 or $80.....

... Probs 70% her clothes from Glassons WLG CBD.

Glassons does collaborations with Instagram Influencers etc - see this article from last year for one example: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8424377/Glassons-30-dream-bikini-collaboration-influencer-Cartia-Mallan-flatters-real-womens-bodies.html

[Alpha]

I've started to see some sponsored ads on Insta. Re Glasson app. Looks pretty flash

[maclir]

My 14 yr old daughter advises me that Glassons has gone viral on social media in US recently Some social influencer (don't know who) aged 16 says it's cool to have Glassons stuff, she just "found them" to her 50million network.

Apparently the Kiwi and Aussie girls are telling the US to back off and buy US !! Prices going up? daughter says jeans were $60, now $70 or $80.....

... Probs 70% her clothes from Glassons WLG CBD.

When my daughter was around that age, Glassons was known as the House of G...she lives in the States now, I'll have to ask her for her take.

[James108]

Glassons have been very social media savvy for a while but I am certainly impressed with these 'collabs'. Here is a bit of amatuer research we could all do. Compare the amount of insta followers/tags Glassons/H&M/Zara/Top Shop etc. have and normalise however you like (I normalised based on revenue).

That does sound like a bit of effort though...

[Alpha]

I did look at a few of these collabs for "reasearch" :) But I did see some have 500k plus followers

[see weed]

Someone went to the annual meeting and reckoned the team were young and really cool and most of them looked like they could be models.

Anyway....I'm looking forward to next months 25 cent fully imputed dividend, that'll also be very cool :cool:
I would be happy with a 20c div, but if you insist 25c then so be it:). We will find out in 3 weeks from today on 26/3/21. Am expecting sp will rise going into that announcement:t_up:.

[Waltzing]

Getting very tempted here Mr B at 7.30.

[see weed]

Nail on the head. But, between me you and the fence post, I wouldn't leave it too long if you want to buy in for the dividend. On 26/3/21 HLG will announce the big juicy div and ex div date, and every man or woman and their dog will want a bit of the action. I am planning on buying an extra 30,000 a bit before that date, and not too worried what I pay for them, just for a quick div strip:).
Haven't started buying in yet but is getting closer by the day.;)

[Beagle]

Getting very tempted here Mr B at 7.30.

Good result this week with five zero's in a row in terms of widespread Covid testing. Really pleased and relieved with that. Shopping should be back in full swing on Sunday.

[Waltzing]

market held up well under pressure again with the bond proxies some even putting on an end of day push.

HLG we have some already but will be chatting to some sales people next week on central north island duty.. be very interesting to get in shop feed back from people on the ground we have had contact with for over 6 months now... over lunch feedback is the best.

[winner69]

Hope Glassons AU don’t get caught up in this

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-close-to-theft-small-business-slams-big-corporate-jobkeeper-profits-20210304-p577sn.html

[Rawz]

Hope Glassons AU don’t get caught up in this

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/pretty-close-to-theft-small-business-slams-big-corporate-jobkeeper-profits-20210304-p577sn.html

Glassons as a small business should be outraged at these big corporates taking the jobkeeper subsidy!

[winner69]

Be a shame if a loser like My Food Bag keep HLG out of the NZX50

Guy from Salt said this in the paper about MFB - The stock is also on the fringes of being included in the NZX 50 Index, which could encourage buying if it were to be added in a future rebalancing

[Balance]

Be a shame if a loser like My Food Bag keep HLG out of the NZX50

Guy from Salt said this in the paper about MFB - The stock is also on the fringes of being included in the NZX 50 Index, which could encourage buying if it were to be added in a future rebalancing

MFB punters need all the help they can get to exit at IPO price so it is only kind to give MFB punters who were hoodwinked into the IPO that opportunity to exit.

[Beagle]

Be a shame if a loser like My Food Bag keep HLG out of the NZX50

Guy from Salt said this in the paper about MFB - The stock is also on the fringes of being included in the NZX 50 Index, which could encourage buying if it were to be added in a future rebalancing

Mark my words mate your food bag won't stay on the fringes of inclusion in the NZX50. HLG on the other hand....sooner or later :t_up:

[winner69]

Share price drifted below 50MA and heading towards the 100MA mark

No worries though because it will go up 20 cents to 30 cents on the 26th when they announce the dividend ... some punters seem to enjoy buying their dividends

[winner69]

Card Spend in Feb from Stats NZ

ASB headline is along the lines of ‘spending cools’ ....overall that is

Comment regarding apparel - Apparel retail declined for a third consecutive month (-2.8% mom, -2.9% yoy),

Wonder what the X is on the 26th when they copy and paste this from last year - For the first 7 weeks of the new season sales were +X%

[850man]

Share price drifted below 50MA and heading towards the 100MA mark

No worries though because it will go up 20 cents to 30 cents on the 26th when they announce the dividend ... some punters seem to enjoy buying their dividends

Even though a decline, very small volume traded today

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Card Spend in Feb from Stats NZ

ASB headline is along the lines of ‘spending cools’ ....overall that is

Comment regarding apparel - Apparel retail declined for a third consecutive month (-2.8% mom, -2.9% yoy),

Wonder what the X is on the 26th when they copy and paste this from last year - For the first 7 weeks of the new season sales were +X%

Feb of course included 4 days of Auckland retail being closed (level 3 lockdowns) and over a week of level 2 restrictions nationwide. being only down 2.9% is quite surprising.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Vocus IPO cancelled - bodes well for HLG NZX50 inclusion.

[Greekwatchdog]

Not quite, Vocus CEO was saying they could still float in NZ 2nd half of the year and take the cash..

[Waltzing]

we see a pull back to 6.30 as a possibility.

[winner69]

Even if nobody else does I find this rather fascinating, if nothing else an indication of market conditions that HLG are operating in NZ - from NZ Card spend data

NZers still not into buying clothes mode ....but spending heaps on durables (home stuff like furniture, electronics etc etc)

Annual durable sales up 4.4% from a year ago - recovered all that was lost during lockdown- and still experiencing growth

Apparel sales are still to be recover and annual sales are 9% down from a year ago - and last Feb was first down month since Aug20

Be interesting to see what HLG NZ sales were in H1 - market per se up 3.3% in that period

[Waltzing]

its AUS that is driving this stock now perhaps. NZ is a smaller market. Everything we do these days is centred on eruope.

Down side to this stock back to 4.5 dollar range worst case but 5 year chart suggests 6 dollar and above if they keep sales up.

[Balance]

Thanks W69 for the update.

Always very useful.

[bull....]

the bull... hypo theroum seems to be holding up this week

covid subsidy repayment stocks whs and bgp are outperforming hlg this week

[Waltzing]

Thank you winner(n) , yes retails sectors are not all the same boat race. We are starting to think that our clothing is a trade again. it will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

The big fight is the market versus the reserve banks. it will shift the market sector balance.

[winner69]

the bull... hypo theroum seems to be holding up this week

covid subsidy repayment stocks whs and bgp are outperforming hlg this week

Michael Hill as well as HLG

[Balance]

Michael Hill as well as HLG

Did MFB get the wage subsidy?

[Entrep]

Does this stock usually have such little depth? There's literally $21K on the bid

[zacman]

Does this stock usually have such little depth? There's literally $21K on the bid

I understand that liquidity is a consideration for NZX50 inclusion. Lack of liquidity also leads to wide price fluctuations. I can not see HLG entering the NZX50 anytime soon

zacman

[allfromacell]

Beagles OCA money will turn up soon, he's just buying before the post ;)

[Beagle]

Beagles OCA money will turn up soon, he's just buying before the post ;)

LOL Ssssshhhhh :cool:

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I understand that liquidity is a consideration for NZX50 inclusion. Lack of liquidity also leads to wide price fluctuations. I can not see HLG entering the NZX50 anytime soon

zacman

It is a bit of a chicken and egg thing - being in the NZX50 brings with it greater liquidity in on itself.

[JohnnyTheHorse]

By my calculations HLG still won't quite make it in to NZX50 in March. Should do in the June quarter though it if maintains price at current levels.

Disc: hold.

[jimdog31]

By my calculations HLG still won't quite make it in to NZX50 in March. Should do in the June quarter though it if maintains price at current levels.

Disc: hold.

what will change between the quarters?

[Ferg]

By my calculations HLG still won't quite make it in to NZX50 in March. Should do in the June quarter though it if maintains price at current levels.

Disc: hold.
I went through a similar process myself some months ago. I looked up the rules, and IIRC HLG needs to make it into 44th place to displace number 50, and for more than just one quarter.....is that your understanding of the rules for inclusion in the NZX50?

[JohnnyTheHorse]

The market cap is calculated based on the average close price of the trailing 6 months. The number of shares used to calculate market cap excludes strategic and insider holdings.

It needs to have a market cap higher than the 45th stock. Otherwise it can get in if a stock drops out (market cap at 56th or below). SML and THL trying their best to get kicked out.

[Beagle]

We'll know after the market closes tomorrow. I'm more than happy with the investment case without NZX50 inclusion, although if it did get included that would be very nice.

[sb9]

Deleted, not relevant.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Looks to break down into 6 territory at the open today...

wouldn't be at all surprised if HLG reacted positively due to the bullish surprise earnings upgrade by KPG this morning.

[bull....]

look at the mthly chart with an rsi shows a divergence . not a good sign long term , price would need to rise a lot to negate this warning sign

[winner69]

HLG run up to 26th dividend announcement starting today

Punters will be chasing that 25 cents plus and when its announced it'll go up another 20 cents (always wonder why often punters buy the dividend after its been announced)


So 8 bucks beckons ..... no worries

[peat]

(always wonder why often punters buy the dividend)


me too! I've been known to sell to avoid

[Beagle]

wouldn't be at all surprised if HLG reacted positively due to the bullish surprise earnings upgrade by KPG this morning.

Yeah its pretty clear that shoppers have been very busy, (then there's HLG's exceptional online websites and associated online marketing).

Might "hound" a few more up.

[Beagle]

No changes to the NZX 50 constituents in this quarterly review but long term holders should be very pleased to own a high quality and very well managed company on compelling metrics and will be looking forward to next months substantial dividend. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hcuC911aWeA Classic dividend hounds stock with approx. 10% gross yield.

[Waltzing]

With banks the only sector in the market showing any legs HLG's Dividend is now surely making investors think hard about where to get income. Term Deposits arnt going back to over 3 percent any time soon?

for growth its travel travel travel as people with income go Hut Hula.

Only so many times you can party in the lounge.

[winner69]

OMG - talk of a 'retail apocalypse' coming soon in Oz as the post lockdown spending spree comes to an end

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/australias-retail-apocalypse-coming-when-pandemic-spending-ends/news-story/0eeec53ba73873e6a92a932ce0564b6d

[nztx]

OMG - talk of a 'retail apocalypse' coming soon in Oz as the post lockdown spending spree comes to an end

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/australias-retail-apocalypse-coming-when-pandemic-spending-ends/news-story/0eeec53ba73873e6a92a932ce0564b6d


Is this forum on 'Go Slow' again ? ;) took an eternity to get logged in!

To a degree this is what I suggested earlier - with most businesses affected by C-19

Some periods have reported little or lower trading with close downs, followed by
later periods where post C-19 recovery and boosts in T/o & results occurred

Now next round back to more normalised trading - not necessarily 'The Sky is falling'
as the article suggests. I would have more faith in HLG's Glassons in Aussie continuing
to come out on top of the retail pile in sector while other competitors continue to fall &
buckle under cumulative effects of the volatility then fall back to normal or slightly less
following..

I have far far more faith in HLG than for MFB which appears to be a grossly over puffed up
balloon inflated to hook in the gullable (similar to the bunnies jumping for a ride on AIR Ords) ;)

[BlackPeter]

OMG - talk of a 'retail apocalypse' coming soon in Oz as the post lockdown spending spree comes to an end

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/australias-retail-apocalypse-coming-when-pandemic-spending-ends/news-story/0eeec53ba73873e6a92a932ce0564b6d

Interesting article ... I like this graph:

1237812377

Given that trends tend to return to the median ... what possibly could go wrong in retail for the better part of the next decade?

[BlackPeter]

Deleted (as far as possible). Just another duplicate due to sick forum software and performance.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Interesting article ... I like this graph:

1237812377

Given that trends tend to return to the median ... what possibly could go wrong in retail for the better part of the next decade?

Retail will continue to benefit from an elevated level of discretionary income spending while international holiday travel remains inaccessible or at very low levels.

[Ferg]

OMG - talk of a 'retail apocalypse' coming soon in Oz as the post lockdown spending spree comes to an end

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/australias-retail-apocalypse-coming-when-pandemic-spending-ends/news-story/0eeec53ba73873e6a92a932ce0564b6d

Thanks for that. On the face of it the signs for Australian clothing retail are not good but I do wonder about two things. Do these figures account for online sales? Also, where some retailers have gone out of business, I believe that would impact the overall figures and possibly mask the impact on remaining retailers. What do you think?

Also, I find it fascinating to see journalists talking about the change in growth rates (e.g. the growth rate has increased 7 fold). How very Robert Muldoon who would talk about the change in rate of inflation is declining. Changes in the rate of growth is the second derivative. A growth rate of 1% is possibly acceptable in the absence of other information, but if this were compared to the previous period's growth rate of say 2.5% then the change in the rate of growth is -1.5%. The second derivative for any business still growing but approaching their plateau will be negative - in other words the upwards slope of the graph is less than 45 degrees. I'm not sure such commentary from journalists is helpful for the average Joe.

[winner69]

Black Peter

Interesting article ... I like this graph:

Click image for larger version.

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ID: 12378Click image for larger version.

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Given that trends tend to return to the median ... what possibly could go wrong in retail for the better part of the next decade?

Thought it was a cool chart as well

The HLG sales chart has the same shape but it'll only take a year or so to return to 'normal'

Would post it but I'll only get an earful as to how great Glassons OZ is and such things won't affect them

[Ferg]

[deleted duplicate]

[winner69]

Ferg - I think you meant to say 'percentage points' a few times instead of 'percentage'

Retail sector sales from ABS generally include online sales

[winner69]

Good to see seeweed now buying for the divie (assumption) ...keeping the price up

[Beagle]

Remember how all the "experts" told us house prices were going to collapse ?
"Experts" predictions about predicted future consumer behavior are notoriously unreliable.

[BlackPeter]

Retail will continue to benefit from an elevated level of discretionary income spending while international holiday travel remains inaccessible or at very low levels.

Not so sure - the thing with international travel goes both ways. NZ seems to be hell bound to keep both international visitors as well as homecoming Kiwis out of the country. All these people will need to spend their money in shops somewhere else.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Not so sure - the thing with international travel goes both ways. NZ seems to be hell bound to keep both international visitors as well as homecoming Kiwis out of the country. All these people will need to spend their money in shops somewhere else.

The amount of discretionary money Kiwis normally spend on overseas holidays but are now instead spending on domestic retail consumption is huge. The amount international tourists spend here on retail is less compared to that (most inbound international tourist money goes into accomodation, airfares/vehicle rental, hospitality and activity operators).

In 2019, Kiwis spent $6.2 Billion on overseas holidays.

By comparison international visitors in 2019 spent $16.2 Billion here.

[Beagle]

The amount of discretionary money Kiwis normally spend on overseas holidays but are now instead spending on domestic retail consumption is huge. The amount international tourists spend here on retail is a lot less compared to that (most inbound international tourist money goes into accomodation, hospitality and activity operators).

Agreed. Factor in too the extremely low interest rates and the "wealth effect" people are feeling from seeing their houses go up ~ 20% in the last year and I think we have a positive environment in terms of retail spending for the foreseeable future.

[BlackPeter]

The amount of discretionary money Kiwis normally spend on overseas holidays but are now instead spending on domestic retail consumption is huge. The amount international tourists spend here on retail is a lot less compared to that (most inbound international tourist money goes into accomodation, hospitality and activity operators).

Mmh .. maybe you should have a look at e.g. ATM, Kathmandu and Comvita? They all had significant problems (and most of them still have) with the tourist channels drying up.

As well - many of our people (as well as businesses) are just kept liquid with government subsidies. This will not go on forever (well, it can't). How will they pay their retail bills when the subsidies stop?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Mmh .. maybe you should have a look at e.g. ATM, Kathmandu and Comvita? They all had significant problems (and most of them still have) with the tourist channels drying up.

As well - many of our people (as well as businesses) are just kept liquid with government subsidies. This will not go on forever (well, it can't). How will they pay their retail bills when the subsidies stop?

Yes the money international tourists spend here on retail products is generally quite different to the domestic consumer. International tourists aren't going to be spending big on sofas & fridges at Harvey Norman for example.

[BlackPeter]

Yes the money international tourists spend here on retail products is generally quite different to the domestic consumer. International tourists aren't going to be spending big on sofas & fridges at Harvey Norman for example.

Actually - they are. While they are unlikely to buy furniture and fridges directly, their accommodation provider will. The hotels however which closed down have no need to replace them anytime soon :): Ah yes - and don't forget all the immigrants and working visa holders we kept out of the country. None of them will support our retail industry.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Actually - they are. While they are unlikely to buy furniture and fridges directly, their accommodation provider will. The hotels however which closed down have no need to replace them anytime soon :): Ah yes - and don't forget all the immigrants and working visa holders we kept out of the country. None of them will support our retail industry.

Actually our biggest listed Hotel operator (MCK - Millennium Copthorne) is taking the downtime during covid to renovate/refurbish their hotels, years ahead of schedule. Lets be realistic though, accommodation provider spending on furniture & fridges is tiny. There are 2 million households in NZ, and approx 140k hotel rooms.

[BlackPeter]

OK - lets take a step back to HLG and retail spending. Economists seem to think that the year to come might be quite difficult for Kiwi businesses:

Just wondering whether companies going broke and people loosing employment will have any impact on HLG's sales numbers?



New Zealanders need to embrace the idea of "creative destruction" as the economy enters the most difficult phase of the pandemic, says BNZ chief economist Paul Conway.

Conway, who spent seven years with the Productivity Commission, was appointed BNZ chief economist earlier this year.

New Zealand had done a good job and of managing the first phase of the pandemic and that had enabled the economy to perform better than many expected, he told 'The Economy Hub'.

But the coming year would be tough as the country got into "the grit of the structural change", he said.

"Businesses are going to the wall, people are losing their jobs, we're really in the throes of that difficult period."

"As economists, we think fo this as creative destruction and we're very much in the destruction phase at the moment."

In terms of the economic cycle there was some truth to the idea that things were darkest before the dawn, he said.


https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy-hub-businesses-failure-a-necessary-part-of-creative-destruction/OS2HQQQOSF65GGZCWJ26CUGFCA/

(paywalled)

I think this article is relevant in this context. Optimism is always good, but as everything else we should take it with reason :):

[Beagle]

I think you have the wrong end of the stick mate. Everyone is "over" Covid and all the lockdown and fear B.S. that goes with that and they want to bust loose and spend.
Try ordering a new boat, European car or motorhome and see what the waiting lists are like !!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

OK - lets take a step back to HLG and retail spending. Economists seem to think that the year to come might be quite difficult for Kiwi businesses:

Just wondering whether companies going broke and people loosing employment will have any impact on HLG's sales numbers?



https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/economy-hub-businesses-failure-a-necessary-part-of-creative-destruction/OS2HQQQOSF65GGZCWJ26CUGFCA/

(paywalled)

I think this article is relevant in this context. Optimism is always good, but as everything else we should take it with reason :):

For context - the current unemployment rate is well below the average for the last decade. There is no unemployment apocalypse in motion, and almost everything other than the tourism sector is at record high levels of employment.

So if we have some sort of border relaxation, even just with Australia, it would highly likely be very positive for jobs with tourism sector starting to rehire many who were laid off over last 12 months in that particular sector.

If I had to place a bet either way, I would bet on the employment situation being better in 2021 than expected (rather than worse).

[BlackPeter]

I think you have the wrong end of the stick mate. Everyone is "over" Covid and all the lockdown and fear B.S. that goes with that and they want to bust loose and spend.
Try ordering a new boat, European car or motorhome and see what the waiting lists are like !!


For context - the current unemployment rate is well below the average for the last decade. There is no unemployment apocalypse in motion, and almost everything other than the tourism sector is at record high levels of employment.

So if we have some sort of border relaxation, even just with Australia, it would highly likely be very positive for jobs with tourism sector starting to rehire many who were laid off over last 12 months in that particular sector.

If I had to place a bet either way, I would bet on the employment situation being better in 2021 than expected (rather than worse).

That's ok - I guess we just have to agree on disagreeing on our mid term economic outlook and check back in a years time how it evolved.

I recon you guys are holding. I am not.

This is good - markets can only work if people disagree on the value (and implicit on risks and opportunities of stocks).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Latest GDP report for December quarter is out. Key quote for HLG:

On an annual basis, retail was up by 2.5 percent

[winner69]

Latest GDP report for December quarter is out. Key quote for HLG:

On an annual basis, retail was up by 2.5 percent

Retail down in December quarter though

Better idea of where things might be heading

[Biscuit]

.....Try ordering a new boat, European car or motorhome ......!

hmmmm, out of touch much?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Retail down in December quarter though

Better idea of where things might be heading

How do you mean? Retail was up 2.5% year-on-year.

[winner69]

How do you mean? Retail was up 2.5% year-on-year.

But down on September quarter they said - maybe by as much as 5% from the narrative

That's how things were going in Dec qtr and a reflection of where things might be heading ....wonder what Mar quarter will produce

[winner69]

LaserEyeKiwi , it doesn't really matter what GDP data said - HLG have reported double digit sales growth over that period

Pretty good when GDP declined 2.9 percent over the year to December 2020, the largest annual fall ever in GDP for New Zealand.

World in turmoil, NZ in recession, OZ not any better .... and GDP down a record amount ....but HLG just keeps pumping

[BlackPeter]

LaserEyeKiwi , it doesn't really matter what GDP data said - HLG have reported double digit sales growth over that period

Pretty good when GDP declined 2.9 percent over the year to December 2020, the largest annual fall ever in GDP for New Zealand.

World in turmoil, NZ in recession, OZ not any better .... and GDP down a record amount ....but HLG just keeps pumping

Don't forget - markets are forward looking. While HLG might have had amazing growth rates looking back, who will maintain these outstanding growth rates in the future if their customers have in future less money in their pockets (this is what a falling GDP means)?

[BlackPeter]

deleted the usual duplicate thanks to dismal server performance ...

[winner69]

Don't forget - markets are forward looking. While HLG might have had amazing growth rates looking back, who will maintain these outstanding growth rates in the future if their customers have in future less money in their pockets (this is what a falling GDP means)?

Read somewhere today that the so called wealth effect isn't in play at the moment -- rocketing property prices not really driving consumer spend it said

And somewhere else more and more cash ending up in the bank -- maybe for a rainy day

[Beagle]

Don't forget - markets are forward looking. While HLG might have had amazing growth rates looking back, who will maintain these outstanding growth rates in the future if their customers have in future less money in their pockets (this is what a falling GDP means)?

I think you're making FAR too much of a meal of a very modest decline in Dec quarter GDP after a whopping thirteen percent increase the previous quarter.
All the retailers, Briscoes, Michael Hill, Warehouse and Hallensteins have reported very strong sales in recent stock exchange news releases that encompass the December 2020 quarter and HLG have an excellent multi year track record of strong growth with Glassons Australia. 40 years experience as an accountant tells me the best guide to the future is the recent past.

Disc: I backed up the truck on WHS this week and already have a boatload of HLG so I am putting my money where my mouth is believe me !