HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

Don't forget - markets are forward looking. While HLG might have had amazing growth rates looking back, who will maintain these outstanding growth rates in the future if their customers have in future less money in their pockets (this is what a falling GDP means)?

I think you're making FAR too much of a meal of a very modest decline in Dec quarter GDP after a whopping thirteen percent increase the previous quarter.
All the retailers, Briscoes, Michael Hill, Warehouse and Hallensteins have reported very strong sales in recent stock exchange news releases that encompass the December 2020 quarter and HLG have an excellent multi year track record of strong growth with Glassons Australia. 40 years experience as an accountant tells me the best guide to the future is the recent past.

Disc: I backed up the truck on WHS this week and already have a boatload of HLG so I am putting my money where my mouth is believe me !

[winner69]

I think you're making FAR too much of a meal of a very modest decline in Dec quarter GDP after a whopping thirteen percent increase the previous quarter.
All the retailers, Briscoes, Michael Hill, Warehouse and Hallensteins have reported very strong sales in recent stock exchange news releases that encompass the December 2020 quarter and HLG have an excellent multi year track record of strong growth with Glassons Australia. 40 years experience as an accountant tells me the best guide to the future is the recent past.

Disc: I backed up the truck on WHS this week and already have a boatload of HLG so I am putting my money where my mouth is believe me !

Ask people in the street about being in a recession and most will respond 'what recession' or maybe just 'what's a recession' and continue with life and keep going to the Warehouse, Leemings and Glassons

[Beagle]

Ask people in the street about being in a recession and most will respond 'what recession' or maybe just 'what's a recession' and continue with life and keep going to the Warehouse, Leemings and Glassons

Someone this week thought I was out of touch...well apparently not. Went to the Covi caravan and motorhome show today. Spent all day there. Pick of the show without spending many hundreds of thousands is one of these which really make maximum use of space with two beds that come down electronically from the roof. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mhwAz0-faMI Very nice bit of German made kit.
Was speaking with the salesman earlier this week about an extra solar panel and a bigger smart t.v.. All good, another $1.2K on top of the other 178. No worries, we have 5 coming in November he assured me. All good, (so I thought). All sold on the first morning of the show yesterday. Nothing available until 2022. What recession ?
Maybe those that think we're in a recession are the ones who are out of touch ?

[winner69]

Beagle mentioned maybe those that think we are in a recession are out of touch.

Could be a case of the rich and famous not caring or even noticing there’s a recession.

Maybe a lot of those not rich and famous are suffering a bit .....Westpac Consumer Confidence survey reported more are worse off than a year ago than those that are better off .....and more said it was not a good time to buy a major household item than those that said it was.

[Beagle]

Assuming the way they measure GDP is not flawed then the apparent answer as to why it contracted very slightly in the December quarter cannot be to do with retail spending because as I noted above all of the retailers have reported strong sales for the December quarter and into January 2021 as well. One comment I read this week was that construction activity had slowed to a slightly less frenetic pace, (perhaps due to supply chain issues). Whatever the generator of a slight reduction in GDP was the old cliché of "one swallow does not a summer make" springs readily to mind. A 13%+ GDP bounce-back in the Sept quarter followed by slight 1% reduction in Dec quarter is certainly not going to keep me up at night.

Should be an interesting week coming up with WHS, HLG and hopefully also PAZ reporting.

[Habits]

Assuming the way they measure GDP is not flawed then the apparent answer as to why it contracted very slightly in the December quarter cannot be to do with retail spending because as I noted above all of the retailers have reported strong sales for the December quarter and into January 2021 as well. One comment I read this week was that construction activity had slowed to a slightly less frenetic pace, (perhaps due to supply chain issues). Whatever the generator of a slight reduction in GDP was the old cliché of "one swallow does not a summer make" springs readily to mind. A 13%+ GDP bounce-back in the Sept quarter followed by slight 1% reduction in Dec quarter is certainly not going to keep me up at night.

Should be an interesting week coming up with WHS, HLG and hopefully also PAZ reporting.

Sorry what is PAZ I must have missed it. Also lets not forget KMD HY report is out tomorrow, I am sure it will be equally interesting in terms of whats happening there

[Habits]

Assuming the way they measure GDP is not flawed then the apparent answer as to why it contracted very slightly in the December quarter cannot be to do with retail spending because as I noted above all of the retailers have reported strong sales for the December quarter and into January 2021 as well. One comment I read this week was that construction activity had slowed to a slightly less frenetic pace, (perhaps due to supply chain issues). Whatever the generator of a slight reduction in GDP was the old cliché of "one swallow does not a summer make" springs readily to mind. A 13%+ GDP bounce-back in the Sept quarter followed by slight 1% reduction in Dec quarter is certainly not going to keep me up at night.

Should be an interesting week coming up with WHS, HLG and hopefully also PAZ reporting.

Sorry what is PAZ I must have missed it. Also lets not forget KMD HY report is out tomorrow, I am sure it will be equally interesting in terms of whats happening there

[iceman]

Sorry what is PAZ I must have missed it. Also lets not forget KMD HY report is out tomorrow, I am sure it will be equally interesting in terms of whats happening there

Pharmazen Limited on the Unlisted market. https://www.usx.co.nz/symbol/paz

An exciting growth story, some of us firmly believe.

[winner69]

Hope HLG got their guidance wrong and npat way in excess of $20m

A 30% increase over last year (mainly from corporate welfare stuff) palls into insignificance compared to WHS more than doubling profits and Briscoes doing 70% plus (without corporate welfare)

Whatever earnings growth is earnings growth and the world is wonderful.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hope HLG got their guidance wrong and npat way in excess of $20m

A 30% increase over last year (mainly from corporate welfare stuff) palls into insignificance compared to WHS more than doubling profits and Briscoes doing 70% plus (without corporate welfare)

Whatever earnings growth is earnings growth and the world is wonderful.

Have to compare apples to apples: Glassons gets half its revenue from Australia where lockdowns have been more severe in terms of length. And on the corporate welfare front, to be fair HLG have said they did not receive any wage subsides from the NZ Government in the 6 month period, and just a $4.5 million payment from the Australian government.

[Beagle]

Hope HLG got their guidance wrong and npat way in excess of $20m

A 30% increase over last year (mainly from corporate welfare stuff) palls into insignificance compared to WHS more than doubling profits and Briscoes doing 70% plus (without corporate welfare)

Whatever earnings growth is earnings growth and the world is wonderful.

I suspect that HLG had to spend a fair bit more on airfreight than I was anticipating. A great stock for the long haul, very well managed and with a superb track record of high dividend payments. Comps this half should be fantastic. Happy to let some OCA go and buy WHS but these are such a proven performer they are a wonderfully rewarding hold. Disc: Right on the limit of my self imposed maximum 15% portfolio allocation and feeling really comfortable with that.

[Habits]

Pharmazen Limited on the Unlisted market. https://www.usx.co.nz/symbol/paz

An exciting growth story, some of us firmly believe.

Thank you
Unlisted and foreign is not my cup of bell tea as you can probably :Dtell

[Habits]

Pharmazen Limited on the Unlisted market. https://www.usx.co.nz/symbol/paz

An exciting growth story, some of us firmly believe.

Thank you
Unlisted and foreign is not my cup of bell tea as you can probably :Dtell

[Waltzing]

SP holding up well. cant say the same for this site. Dont have time for slow web apps. The web is a terrible technology im afraid.

[Beagle]

Report day is this Friday. I am looking forward to it.

[winner69]

premier reported yesterday in aus , very strong numbers. Premier mainly in clothes. they had this to say - Premier Investments statutory NPAT $188.2 million, up 88.9% on 1H20

Warehouse adjusted profit up 140%

Both tout margin improvement

HLG tomorrow will report a corporate welfare adjusted profit growth of 30%-40%. Great but pretty disappointing relative to others

[LaserEyeKiwi]

premier reported yesterday in aus , very strong numbers. Premier mainly in clothes. they had this to say - Premier Investments statutory NPAT $188.2 million, up 88.9% on 1H20

Warehouse adjusted profit up 140%

Both tout margin improvement

HLG tomorrow will report a corporate welfare adjusted profit growth of 30%-40%. Great but pretty disappointing relative to others

excellent result for WHS, good for them and there shareholders.

Warehouse of course coming off an abysmal comparable period last year, inflating the year on year growth comparison.

Interesting to look at 5 year net profit tracks (and sales) for both companies 6 monthly reports: One company is earning less profits than it did in 2016, while the other has grown profits 200% (and be sure to look at revenue comparison as well.)

(Also, HLG received no NZ wage subsidies in its latest 6 month period.)

WHS:
2021: $55m ($1.8B sales revenue)
2020: $28.8m
2019: $35.8m
2018: $35.3m
2017: $41.6m
2016: $57.2m ($1.57B sales revenue)

HLG:
2021: ~$20m ($182m sales)
2020: $15.4m
2019: $16m
2018: $15.1m
2017: $9.2m
2016: $6.8m ($112m sales)

[Beagle]

I am very happy to own both HLG and WHS.

[winner69]

excellent result for WHS, good for them and there shareholders.

Warehouse of course coming off an abysmal comparable period last year, inflating the year on year growth comparison.

Interesting to look at 5 year net profit tracks (and sales) for both companies 6 monthly reports: One company is earning less profits than it did in 2016, while the other has grown profits 200% (and be sure to look at revenue comparison as well.)

(Also, HLG received no NZ wage subsidies in its latest 6 month period.)

WHS:
2021: $55m ($1.8B sales revenue)
2020: $28.8m
2019: $35.8m
2018: $35.3m
2017: $41.6m
2016: $57.2m ($1.57B sales revenue)

HLG:
2021: ~$20m ($182m sales)
2020: $15.4m
2019: $16m
2018: $15.1m
2017: $9.2m
2016: $6.8m ($112m sales)

You have to use Adjusted Profit for WHS ....not so bad then.

C’mon you really want to buy some WHS shares eh ....don’t talk yourself out of it ....get in before it’s too late.

[Beagle]

WHS just announced a $111m normalised profit, not the $55m noted above. Perfectly reasonable to normalise profit in the circumstances they noted.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

WHS just announced a $111m normalised profit, not the $55m noted above. Perfectly reasonable to normalise profit in the circumstances they noted.

That includes the $68 million wage subsidy they paid back though right?

(I do hold a small amount of WHS)

[Beagle]

Yeah the wage subsidy pertained to a previous trading period so its more than reasonable to normalise profit for that and there were restructuring costs of (from memory $11m) which relate to the redundancy of about 600 staff which will confer operational efficiencies looking forward.

For me, I am always looking forward to what is going to move the needle on share prices so adjusting for prior period matters and one off redundancies is more than fair and reasonable.

I like the momentum WHS have but I also really like the consistent way HLG are growing their Glassons brand.

[winner69]

Warehouse, Briscoes and Premier(rag trade Oz) stellar results mainly driven with exceptional increases in Gross Margin (% to sales)

Results were

Warehouse 36.2% up 260 basis points
Briscoes 43.8% up 440 basis points
Premier 65.4% up 286 basis points

Wonder what HLG gross margin % will be tomorrow - probably less than last year - based on sales growth should have generated 10m after tax profit but guidance has profit only up 5m

Be interesting to see

[Beagle]

They have commented previously that airfreight costs would impact gross margin. Its clear many here (including myself) have underestimated the effect of this.
I'm still expecting a solid result within the guidance range previously given, a really good dividend and a strong balance sheet with no debt and heaps of cash.
My pick is 25 cps (fully imputed as usual) for the dividend. Lets see how close to the mark I am.

[Waltzing]

MR B is back with a vengeance and after KMD's performance and we sold to many to soon HLG has now got some competition from the RAG and BAG Trade.

[Cyclical]

They have commented previously that airfreight costs would impact gross margin. Its clear many here (including myself) have underestimated the effect of this.

You're forgiven. I seem to recall you were focused on the weight of the bikinis those hot young things were modelling on the website, and failed to recognise that not all of HLG's merchandise (they call it murch these days apparently) is so minimalistic...easy mistake ;-)

[nztx]

They have commented previously that airfreight costs would impact gross margin. Its clear many here (including myself) have underestimated the effect of this.
I'm still expecting a solid result within the guidance range previously given, a really good dividend and a strong balance sheet with no debt and heaps of cash.
My pick is 25 cps (fully imputed as usual) for the dividend. Lets see how close to the mark I am.


I'll take your 25 cps & up it by a further 5.0 cps with credits attached .. ;)

[JSwan]

Results out, I like how the announcement title says “HGH Ltd”, HGH and HLG merger soon? 😂

[LaserEyeKiwi]

23c dividend! gobble gobble gobble

[Beagle]

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/369763/343160.pdf

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/369763

Net profit after tax at the upper end of guidance range. Dividend of 23 cps fully imputed similar to my expectations noted above.

Sales growth in the 7 weeks to date of 17.8% (despite lockdowns) is very good and will no doubt grow further as we lap the extensive lockdown that occurred in late March and April last year.

Balance sheet remains strong and they are well positioned. Extra freight costs have hit them as noted in the report and I see this as a one-off item.

Growth in Glassons Australia is deeply impressive and even more notable on a divisional performance their profitability was nearly double Glassons N.Z. despite only having slightly more sales.

More than half the current periods profit came from Glassons Australia despite this accounting for just over one third of total sales, (no wonder they are looking to expand there), and I see a huge runway for growth there with current market penetration probably around only one fifth of what it is here.

Solid result in what were difficult conditions with freight and logistical matters. I expect very good things from this company going forward. I know some other retailers have coped better with freight and logistical challenges in the period under review and expanded gross margin and good on them I say. I'm not sending this well managed company on attractive metrics to the sin-bin for one period where they could have performed more optimally.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Also some positive outlook, especially considering Auckland was in lockdown in this years period:


Future Outlook

Although the trading environment in both New Zealand and Australia remains challenging, and with the uncertainty of COVID-19 ever present, it is encouraging that Group sales for the first 7 weeks of the Winter season are +17.8% ahead of the same period last year. However, it must be considered that it was this time last year that the COVID-19 impact was beginning to be felt in both New Zealand and Australia.

During the period Auckland moved to Level 3 on the 15th February to 17th February 2021 and 28th February to 6 March 2021 where thirteen Hallenstein Brothers stores and twelve Glassons stores were closed.

Following the appointment of Stuart Duncan as the new Group CEO from 1 April 2021, the business will continue to focus on building digital engagement with our customers, cost control and improving our market share in the New Zealand and Australian fashion apparel sector in which we operate.

[Alpha]

Not sure what happened posted in wrong forum.

Great results btw for HLG.

[Waltzing]

Continuing to build a reputation for managing growth in the RAG and BAG trade.

Holding Some... could be a chance to pick up more if there is a pull back sometime in the next 2 years but only if there is a global problem somewhere and there always is.

But wait ... we just did have a pull back!!!!

(miss post above on sky)

[winner69]

..................

Solid result in what were difficult conditions with freight and logistical matters. I expect very good things from this company going forward. I know some other retailers have coped better with freight and logistical challenges in the period under review and expanded gross margin and good on them I say. I'm not sending this well managed company on attractive metrics to the sin-bin for one period where they could have performed more optimally.

Is that code for not that impressed but you will give them one more chance .....but will be keeping a close eye on the share price for any sign of sustained weakness when Plan B will come into play .... and probably no longer a 'conviction stock'

[Balance]

Is that code for not that impressed but you will give them one more chance .....but will be keeping a close eye on the share price for any sign of sustained weakness when Plan B will come into play .... and probably no longer a 'conviction stock'

Like you have changed your mind on MFB?

[Beagle]

Is that code for not that impressed but you will give them one more chance .....but will be keeping a close eye on the share price for any sign of sustained weakness when Plan B will come into play .... and probably no longer a 'conviction stock'

Maybe have another read of sentences 4 and 5 of my post.

[sampson]

Maybe have another read of sentences 4 and 5 of my post.

Yeah, they remind me of some of your sentences about OCA a month or two ago...

[winner69]

The first 7 weeks of H2 sales are up 18% is awesome. The announcement sort of hinted that this is against a Covid related period last year.

But last years sales were +3.8% on pcp so Covid hadn’t really impacted

One could assume that there’s some real solid organic growth over the last 7 weeks ....even stronger growth than overall H1 sales that had heaps of catch up in them

Pretty cool eh

[gbogo]

can someone please tell me what the dividend yield is now, p.a.?

[James108]

can someone please tell me what the dividend yield is now, p.a.?

That is something you can easily figure out yourself, I believe NZX even does it for you.

Pleased with result, particularly the trading of the first 7 weeks of this half, which I THINK encompasses the period just before we locked down last year.

[winner69]

The reduced margin had a negative impact on NPBT of $3.2m - freight costs they said

Briscoes, Warehouse and Premier had same issues. Those three all say there was less need to discount etc. Overall impact significant increase in GM %

If HLG had followed suit and increased margin like those three mentioned NPBT would have been $6m to $7m higher.

Bad luck or not so good supply chain management / pricing mechanisms?

[alokdhir]

Maybe time to get out of retail stocks ....Their best time or lucky time maybe coming to an end ...WHS / HLG

But how will I know ....just a inkling :D

[nztx]

Certainly could be a peak from post Covid sales in the past 6 months trading period

It would be interesting to see what normalised figures projected forward look like now ..

HLG / WHS are possibly the last I would be looking at stepping too much out of .. ;)

Put it this way- show me anything better - if there is anything on the board at all - coming close ..

[Beagle]

You're forgiven. I seem to recall you were focused on the weight of the bikinis those hot young things were modelling on the website, and failed to recognise that not all of HLG's merchandise (they call it murch these days apparently) is so minimalistic...easy mistake ;-)
Maybe if they made all their garments smaller, especially the bikini's that would help :D


The first 7 weeks of H2 sales are up 18% is awesome. The announcement sort of hinted that this is against a Covid related period last year.

But last years sales were +3.8% on pcp so Covid hadn’t really impacted

One could assume that there’s some real solid organic growth over the last 7 weeks ....even stronger growth than overall H1 sales that had heaps of catch up in them

Pretty cool eh


can someone please tell me what the dividend yield is now, p.a.? See below


The reduced margin had a negative impact on NPBT of $3.2m - freight costs they said

Briscoes, Warehouse and Premier had same issues. Those three all say there was less need to discount etc. Overall impact significant increase in GM %

If HLG had followed suit and increased margin like those three mentioned NPBT would have been $6m to $7m higher.

Bad luck or not so good supply chain management / pricing mechanisms?
I think its clear they were far from top of the class in managing supply chain issues in the previous half. As we've discussed before HLG have the best stock turn of any of the listed companies and I think their just in time systems which must be crucial to getting such excellent stock turn have worked against them with longer lead times and shipping delay's. No big deal going forward but yes, as you know I was expecting about $24m so the extra airfreight costs definitely hurt.

A one off disappointment with logistical issues of perhaps $4m is 6.7 cps in value if they had of managed the situation more optimally. It is what it is. First time they've disappointed in this regard. Show me a company that executes perfectly ALL the time or such compelling metrics and I'll buy that other company too.

Looking forward as we like to do the current ~ 18% sales growth is against a backdrop of short lockdown's on both sides of the Tasman

Events subsequent to balance date
On the 15th February 2021 Auckland re-entered Level 3 lockdown. The Group announced it had
closed thirteen Hallenstein Brothers stores and twelve Glassons stores in Auckland until 17 February
2021. In Melbourne there were eleven Glassons stores closed with the recent lockdown from the 12th
February for five days.
On the 28th February 2021 Auckland again re-entered Level 3 lockdown. The thirteen Hallenstein
Brothers Auckland stores and twelve Glassons Auckland stores were closed until 7 March 2021.

You've previously noted disappointing margins at Glassons Australia but I see that's been well and truly fixed and they're looking at opportunities for expanding their footprint there.
Interestingly Glassons Au grew sales significantly, up 26.9% (10.9% in the PCP), but net profit was up 71%.

Assuming they pay another 23 cent final dividend that's 46 cps fully imputed = 46 / 0.72 = 63.9 cps gross which is a forecast FY21 gross yield of 8.5% at $7.50 plus you get 23 cps back next month.

I think this is a good solid hold for ongoing growth and the yield. I think $35 - $40m is achievable for FY21 which at the mid point is $37.5 = 63 cps which puts HLG on a forward PE of 11.5 (based on theoretical ex divvy price of $7.27). Makes it a very cheap stock considering its proven multi year track record of growth in Australia.

[bull....]

mr wong is not happy

University of Auckland accounting professor Jilnaught (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122972883/accounting-professor-singles-out-nzx-companies-which-morally-shouldnt-have-taken-wage-subsidy)Wong spoke out last year (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122972883/accounting-professor-singles-out-nzx-companies-which-morally-shouldnt-have-taken-wage-subsidy) about NZX-listed companies he believed had taken advantage of the high-trust wage subsidy system. Following public pressure, retailers including The Warehouse Group (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300190019/the-warehouse-group-to-repay-68-million-in-wage-subsidy) and Briscoe Group (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123107912/briscoe-to-pay-back-115m-wage-subsidy-after-strong-sales) repaid their wage subsidies after trading picked up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124613803/accounting-professor-calls-on-hallenstein-glasson-to-revisit-its-wage-subsidy-decision

anyway apart from glassons good results the rest was not that good , declining sales and margin while all other retailers are killing it on margin .... very poor outcome for hlg .

[nztx]

mr wong is not happy

University of Auckland accounting professor Jilnaught (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122972883/accounting-professor-singles-out-nzx-companies-which-morally-shouldnt-have-taken-wage-subsidy)Wong spoke out last year (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/122972883/accounting-professor-singles-out-nzx-companies-which-morally-shouldnt-have-taken-wage-subsidy) about NZX-listed companies he believed had taken advantage of the high-trust wage subsidy system. Following public pressure, retailers including The Warehouse Group (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300190019/the-warehouse-group-to-repay-68-million-in-wage-subsidy) and Briscoe Group (https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123107912/briscoe-to-pay-back-115m-wage-subsidy-after-strong-sales) repaid their wage subsidies after trading picked up.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/124613803/accounting-professor-calls-on-hallenstein-glasson-to-revisit-its-wage-subsidy-decision

anyway apart from glassons good results the rest was not that good , declining sales and margin while all other retailers are killing it on margin .... very poor outcome for hlg .


Perhaps Mr Wong should pull his head in & concentrate on getting some Stewdents the Top Level Edumecation they deserve
& are expecting from his Employer ? ;)

How much are the Taxpayers subsidising Mr Wong's fat screw while the Country is on low imported student numbers ?

Perhaps he should refund 75% of it back into the coffers ? ;)

[Beagle]

That's the problem with academics...they don't live in the real world. They believe the world should be some utopia where theoretical conceptuality applies.
I have no time for academics like this that have never had to get their hands dirty or get out of their ivory towers.

[850man]

That's the problem with academics...they don't live in the real world. They believe the world should be some utopia where theoretical conceptuality applies.
I have no time for academics like this that have never had to get their hands dirty or get out of their ivory towers.

I put career politicians in the same category Mr Beagle

[Beagle]

I put career politicians in the same category Mr Beagle

I couldn't agree more, especially most of the current crop of "rocket scientists"

[gbogo]

If I was a smart as you, maybe .. but clearly not, which is why I am asking.. NZD says 7.22% but that's what it said yesterday and I don't trust NZX very far anyway. An Interim Dividend of 23c is about 3.1% @ $7.50 but how would you account for a final dividend?


That is something you can easily figure out yourself, I believe NZX even does it for you.

Pleased with result, particularly the trading of the first 7 weeks of this half, which I THINK encompasses the period just before we locked down last year.

[nztx]

If I was a smart as you, maybe .. but clearly not, which is why I am asking.. NZD says 7.22% but that's what it said yesterday and I don't trust NZX very far anyway. An Interim Dividend of 23c is about 3.1% @ $7.50 but how would you account for a final dividend?

Mr Beagle further up estimates say 23 cps for FY Div to come (usually December paid)

46.0 cps estimate FY Cash Div

add on Imputation credits 28/72 = 17.89 cps

Gross Div (incl Imp Credits) = 63.89 cps

SP say $7.50 currently

= 8.52 % approx Gross Div Yield (including Imputation credits)

NZX site looks to currently record theirs on earlier or last years historic dividends, and upcoming
April Div is not yet showing here as of now:

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

[winner69]

If I was a smart as you, maybe .. but clearly not, which is why I am asking.. NZD says 7.22% but that's what it said yesterday and I don't trust NZX very far anyway. An Interim Dividend of 23c is about 3.1% @ $7.50 but how would you account for a final dividend?

Gb - NZX 7.22% is calculated on the Sep20 and Dec20 dividends of 39 cents net.

NZX calc is always retrospective

[Balance]

If I was a smart as you, maybe .. but clearly not, which is why I am asking.. NZD says 7.22% but that's what it said yesterday and I don't trust NZX very far anyway. An Interim Dividend of 23c is about 3.1% @ $7.50 but how would you account for a final dividend?

NZX's 7.22% is calculated as the last year's interim & final dividends (cash + imputation credits) of 20.83c & 33.33c respectively = 54.16c on sp of $7.50 = Gross Div Yield 7.22%

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

For the next financial year, you will have to make your own estimate of what the final dividend is going to be to get the gross dividend yield.

If one takes a simplistic view that the final dividend will be 15% more like this interim dividend (23c vs 20c), then the prospective gross yield for F21 will be 8.2%.

I note that HLG is only paying out 70%* of EPS of 33c with this interim dividend of 23c when the company could have easily paid out (like previous years) 30c so I am picking a bumper 30c final dividend.

So I am calling it 9.8% gross yield for F21.

*HLG is right to be cautious (like in 2020) with the pandemic still out there and lockdowns being a possibility until everyone who wants to get vaccinated, gets vaccinated.

[gbogo]

Mr Beagle further up estimates say 23 cps for FY Div to come (usually December paid)

46.0 cps estimate FY Cash Div

add on Imputation credits 28/72 = 17.89 cps

Gross Div (incl Imp Credits) = 63.89 cps

SP say $7.50 currently

= 8.52 % approx Gross Div Yield (including Imputation credits)

NZX site looks to currently record theirs on earlier or last years historic dividends, and upcoming
April Div is not yet showing here as of now:

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

perfect - thank you! (ex-Capital Gains trader, learning to love dividends now...)

[Beagle]

NZX's 7.22% is calculated as the last year's interim & final dividends (cash + imputation credits) of 20.83c & 33.33c respectively = 54.16c on sp of $7.50 = Gross Div Yield 7.22%

https://www.nzx.com/instruments/HLG/dividends

For the next financial year, you will have to make your own estimate of what the final dividend is going to be to get the gross dividend yield.

If one takes a simplistic view that the final dividend will be 15% more like this interim dividend (23c vs 20c), then the prospective gross yield for F21 will be 8.2%.

I note that HLG is only paying out 70%* of EPS of 33c with this interim dividend of 23c when the company could have easily paid out (like previous years) 30c so I am picking a bumper 30c final dividend.

So I am calling it 9.8% gross yield for F21.

*HLG is right to be cautious (like in 2020) with the pandemic still out there and lockdowns being a possibility until everyone who wants to get vaccinated, gets vaccinated.

I think there's a very good chance you'll be correct.

[850man]

Interesting market response to an OK result and a juicy divvy, SP closing 1.6% down albeit on relatively small volume.

[nztx]

perfect - thank you! (ex-Capital Gains trader, learning to love dividends now...)


A good deal to be loved about Companies who attach a full Imputation credit to distributions

Just 5% Div RWT on Gross Dividend to come out of the Cash Dividend (topping up to 33% Tax rate for most dividends)


It certainly beats losing 33% Div RWT - where the Company paying a Dividend attaches No Imputation credits..

[nztx]

Interesting market response to an OK result and a juicy divvy, SP closing 1.6% down albeit on relatively small volume.

I tell you why -- backed the truck up yesterday not today .. don't tell anyone .. ;)

[winner69]

Retail clothing market in eastern states OZ up 2% on pcp in period corresponding to HLG H1 period

Glassons AU sales up 27%

Relentless market share gains continue

And new stores soon by sounds of it .... even better

[Balance]

Retail clothing market in eastern states OZ up 2% on pcp in period corresponding to HLG H1 period

Glassons AU sales up 27%

Relentless market share gains continue

And new stores soon by sounds of it .... even better

Nice chart, W69.

Thanks.

[Beagle]

Thanks Winner. There's a lot to like about the way Glassons AU has grown in the last few years and a huge opportunity going forward as the brand continues to gain traction in a market 5-6 times the size of N.Z.

Forward metrics are so cheap you're effectively paying nothing for future growth. Highlighted that so nobody misses it.

This dog's best and most favored trick is to buy stocks that give you growth for free. "There is no such thing as a free lunch". I call B.S. on that. There is if you know where to look !!

The special beauty of this particular trick is you get paid extremely well with dividend yield (estimated gross yield FY21 (8.5 - 10%) while you enjoy that free growth.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

... anyway apart from glassons good results the rest was not that good , declining sales and margin while all other retailers are killing it on margin .... very poor outcome for hlg .

"Apart from Glassons good results"? You realise that Glassons is the majority of the business and the only non-glassons part is Hallensteins menswear stores?

[Balance]

"Apart from Glassons good results"? You realise that Glassons is the majority of the business and the only non-glassons part is Hallensteins menswear stores?

I believe everyone on ST has figured out by now that bull... posts whatever suits his short term trading positions.

Check out what he did in MFB - ouch!

[bull....]

I believe everyone on ST has figured out by now that bull... posts whatever suits his short term trading positions.

Check out what he did in MFB - ouch!

what a load of crap , you cant short hlg. i suggest you have been having lessons from your mate mallard

[lissica]

I think the results are ok and HLG is cheap however you look at it.

[Balance]

what a load of crap , you cant short hlg. i suggest you have been having lessons from your mate mallard

As stated, you posts (positive or negative) according to your short term trading positions & I will add, trading intentions.

We all know that of you in this forum but if you want me to elaborate, I am happy to do so.

Nothing wrong & no problem or issue with your trading strategies or style but at least, you can be open and be honest about it.

[Beagle]

i think the results are ok and hlg is cheap however you look at it.

Bingo !!!!!

[winner69]

HLG Group sales up 22m in H1 v pcp (+14%). No doubt a lot of catch up sales post lockdown as well as some organic growth. Seems a lot of what have been store sales during lockdowns were later converted into online sales.

But npbt was only up 6.9m - margins hurt a bit but what's a worry is that expenses were up 2.4m on pcp. If you add back grants and rent relief gross expenses were up 7.9m -10% higher. People costs ere up 12% (that's a worry).

without those grants and rent relief npbt would have been about the same as pcp - even though sales up 22m

Besides supply chain pricing failurs that impacted margins it seems that expenses are a bit out of control as well (Mary says 'well controlled' .....hmmm)

Maybe they have too many workers and rents are a problem ....but it is a shame that the 'resilience' they have shown (huge increase in sales) hasn't really converted into real profits.

Always got to look forward but hopefully this is not a sign of what F22 will look like.

[Habits]

HLG Group sales up 22m in H1 v pcp (+14%). No doubt a lot of catch up sales post lockdown as well as some organic growth. Seems a lot of what have been store sales during lockdowns were later converted into online sales.

But npbt was only up 6.9m - margins hurt a bit but what's a worry is that expenses were up 2.4m on pcp. If you add back grants and rent relief gross expenses were up 7.9m -10% higher. People costs ere up 12% (that's a worry).

without those grants and rent relief npbt would have been about the same as pcp - even though sales up 22m

Besides supply chain pricing failurs that impacted margins it seems that expenses are a bit out of control as well (Mary says 'well controlled' .....hmmm)

Maybe they have too many workers and rents are a problem ....but it is a shame that the 'resilience' they have shown (huge increase in sales) hasn't really converted into real profits.

Always got to look forward nut hopefully this is not a sign of what F22 will look like.

Hmmm ... this one is now the slow train Te Hallenstein vs the bullet train Te Warehouse toot toot. The trip is more scenic but arrives same destination

[winner69]

Hmmm ... this one is now the slow train Te Hallenstein vs the bullet train Te Warehouse toot toot. The trip is more scenic but arrives same destination

...but I think some are changing trains

[winner69]

Unless there are more lockdowns I’m assuming we won’t be hearing from the company until next August

And after next weeks divie no more divies until Christmas

[Balance]

...but I think some are changing trains

Been told over the years that it's hard to take all the pretty girls out, W69.

Stick with the one you find is prettiest and most aligned to your personality for a blissful future.

Same thing with shares! :D

[Habits]

Unless there are more lockdowns I’m assuming we won’t be hearing from the company until next August

And after next weeks divie no more divies until Christmas

Too long in between but especially long in the dynamic changing economy we are in. How is it possible for US companies to report qtrly accounts and the nz companies do not even provide updates or sales numbers qtrly

[Balance]

Too long in between but especially long in the dynamic changing economy we are in. How is it possible for US companies to report qtrly accounts and the nz companies do not even provide updates or sales numbers qtrly

Quarterly reports? The way US companies move like yo-yos one quarter to the next?

No need for quarterly updates with top notch consistent performing quality companies like HLG unless you want to encourage speculative trading.

[Balance]

Unless there are more lockdowns I’m assuming we won’t be hearing from the company until next August

And after next weeks divie no more divies until Christmas

Been the same every year - why the sudden concern, W69?

MFB will be reporting teal soon so keep your eye on that one instead?

[Beagle]

Been told over the years that it's hard to take all the pretty girls out, W69.

Stick with the one you find is prettiest and most aligned to your personality for a blissful future.

Same thing with shares! :D

I'm a naughty dog, I have been flirting with WHS as well. I believe they both have a very bright future.

[winner69]

Quarterly reports? The way US companies move like yo-yos one quarter to the next?

No need for quarterly updates with top notch consistent performing quality companies like HLG unless you want to encourage speculative trading.

Just that some have very high expectations ......and don’t want them to be let down all of a sudden in August

[Balance]

I'm a naughty dog, I have been flirting with WHS as well.

Good on you Beagle.

You obviously know how to straddle between several beauties!

[Balance]

Just that some have very high expectations ......and don’t want them to be let down all of a sudden in August

They have a simple option - sell out.

[winner69]

I'm a naughty dog, I have been flirting with WHS as well. I believe they both have a very bright future.

Why not ....getting off the slow train and getting on the express train good move

Loyalty don’t matter

[winner69]

They have a simple option - sell out.

I think they are ... almost certain after the divie

[Balance]

Why not ....getting off the slow train and getting on the express train good move

Loyalty don’t matter

Steady wins the race, you know that W69.

MFB is a slow or fast train?

[Balance]

I think they are ... almost certain after the divie

Yawn - yearly event.

How about MFB - will those who bought for the promised dividend (paid from IPO proceeds) sell after the divie?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

HLG Group sales up 22m in H1 v pcp (+14%). No doubt a lot of catch up sales post lockdown as well as some organic growth. Seems a lot of what have been store sales during lockdowns were later converted into online sales.

But npbt was only up 6.9m - margins hurt a bit but what's a worry is that expenses were up 2.4m on pcp. If you add back grants and rent relief gross expenses were up 7.9m -10% higher. People costs ere up 12% (that's a worry).

without those grants and rent relief npbt would have been about the same as pcp - even though sales up 22m

Besides supply chain pricing failurs that impacted margins it seems that expenses are a bit out of control as well (Mary says 'well controlled' .....hmmm)

Maybe they have too many workers and rents are a problem ....but it is a shame that the 'resilience' they have shown (huge increase in sales) hasn't really converted into real profits.

Always got to look forward but hopefully this is not a sign of what F22 will look like.

I think it's probably too soon to worry about the expenses to sales ratio. I think there were undoubtedly quite a bit of sales lost during lockdown, even with the good online sales momentum, and covid has definitely impacted shipping expenses with all the air freighting they have been doing. The rise in people costs will be driven both by new store openings in Australia, but also the big increases in minimum wage surpassing HLG base pay for retail staff. Future minimum wage rises will decrease as a percentage, even as the value in annual increases likely remains the same, if you catch my drift. I'm not too distressed by the minimum wage increases as although it increases HLG labour costs, it also increases the purchasing power of a core glassons customer demographic.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Interesting - just watching post-cabinet press conference, and it sounds like the large minimum wage increases might actually have finished! likely that future increases will be quite a bit smaller.

[winner69]

Hallensteins store in Cuba St mentioned on radio this morning — shoplifting so rampant the manager doesn’t call the cops any more. Every day and that’s the ones they catch.

Another consequence of government policy failure - a lot of motels full of homeless people etc up that end of town .Big drug raid at one the other day.

One good thing - Hallensteins have cool clothes that this growing market segment love.
.

[Habits]

Hallensteins store in Cuba St mentioned on radio this morning — shoplifting so rampant the manager doesn’t call the cops any more. Every day and that’s the ones they catch.

Another consequence of government policy failure - a lot of motels full of homeless people etc up that end of town .Big drug raid at one the other day.

One good thing - Hallensteins have cool clothes that this growing market segment love.
.

Senior management needs to get on this and employ friggin security asap or have the police monitor. Also work with LL or business association.... apart from the obvious criminal aspect I would have thought this is an employee safety issue and the risk of copycat at other stores. I didn't hear the interview so perhaps there is another side to it.

[winner69]

Senior management needs to get on this and employ friggin security asap or have the police monitor. Also work with LL or business association.... apart from the obvious criminal aspect I would have thought this is an employee safety issue and the risk of copycat at other stores. I didn't hear the interview so perhaps there is another side to it.

It was a piece about most of Cuba St suffering from shoplifting but Hallensteins manager quoted.

Probably a problen nationwide anyway and they possibly lose up to 2% of stock anyway

[bull....]

Hallensteins store in Cuba St mentioned on radio this morning — shoplifting so rampant the manager doesn’t call the cops any more. Every day and that’s the ones they catch.

Another consequence of government policy failure - a lot of motels full of homeless people etc up that end of town .Big drug raid at one the other day.

One good thing - Hallensteins have cool clothes that this growing market segment love.
.

glassons is cool , i dont think hallensteins is cool anymore going of my demographic stocktake of what late teen kids thing of it

[winner69]

glassons is cool , i dont think hallensteins is cool anymore going of my demographic stocktake of what late teen kids thing of it

Maybe street kids aren’t that fussy ...but Hallensteins attract them by the sounds of it

[Rawz]

glassons is cool , i dont think hallensteins is cool anymore going of my demographic stocktake of what late teen kids thing of it

Hallensteins has never been cool.. most boys/men just buy clothes that fit lol..

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Maybe street kids aren’t that fussy ...but Hallensteins attract them by the sounds of it

This isn't street kids, this area has been flooded with many ex-australian gang members that have been deported over the last year, and the MSD is using all the cheap short stay accomodation around this area to house them.

I'm not sure security guards would have any impact in this scenario as if I recall they cant actually do anything in New Zealand in terms of restraining people (only police have those powers) - so these shoplifters simply walk in, take whatever they like off the rack, and simply walk out - don't even bother trying to hide anything.

I think it might be in the stores best interest if it simply closes currently and makes enough headlines that Wellington City Council and Police are shamed into taking some sort of action in the area to curb the behaviour.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

glassons is cool , i dont think hallensteins is cool anymore going of my demographic stocktake of what late teen kids thing of it

Hallensteins is the goto solution for any teenager / new-graduate when they want a tailored suit that won't break the bank. This was one of the core marketing efforts for hallensteins over the last few years. This is the segment of the business that hallentsteins has suffered a contraction in over the last 12 months as lockdowns and work from home cancelled the usual demand for suits (there were/are a whole lot less conferences, school balls, weddings etc)

[Rawz]

Hallensteins is the goto solution for any teenager / new-graduate when they want a tailored suit that won't break the bank. This was one of the core marketing efforts for hallensteins over the last few years. This is the segment of the business that hallentsteins has suffered a contraction in over the last 12 months as lockdowns and work from home cancelled the usual demand for suits (there were/are a whole lot less conferences, school balls, weddings etc)

This is also how i see it. They have had to rely on shorts, tees and chinos a lot more post covid.

I was part of a groomsman party and we were to wear Hallensteins suits. Suits ordered early 2020 for a June 2020 wedding. Wedding got cancelled. The good folks at Hallensteins gave a full cash refund to the groom. Good company eh.

The $199 suit deal was great value for the one off occasions.

[winner69]

Wonder how many men’s suits women bought from Hallensteins because Laura said it was the cool thing to do

[pak]

Unless there are more lockdowns I’m assuming we won’t be hearing from the company until next August

And after next weeks divie no more divies until Christmas

Should get an interim report end of April before guidance in August.
Maybe there could be a hint as to why some insiders went big, particularly James Glasson end of last year.............

[winner69]

Glassons does collaborations with Instagram Influencers etc - see this article from last year for one example: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-8424377/Glassons-30-dream-bikini-collaboration-influencer-Cartia-Mallan-flatters-real-womens-bodies.html

And no doubt the marketing people tell management it's working with charts like below

Some discussion in the management world about marketing activities are too often decoupled from business impact. Are metrics being used the right ones and often not really meaningful except giving the marketing people the warm fuzzies.

Nowhere is this disconnect more prevalent than in social media marketing, where results can be nebulous and detached from business outcomes.

Is this stuff is working for Glassons - maybe it is

[Waltzing]

wonder what the US is going to do for this stock after the recent exposure on social media..

people are going to want to beach it next summer world wide.

[winner69]

This guy a real cheer germ

‘Flashing red’: Ominous sign for Australia’s economy

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/flashing-red-ominous-sign-for-australias-economy/news-story/d238b243be51a9954a7be86490293b6c

Maybe he better go and talk to Tim Glasson

[Waltzing]

HLG should look to list on the AUS exchange sometime in the future.

out cry from share holders NZ of course.

We are buy AUS with 3 to 5 year time horizon.

[Balance]

This guy a real cheer germ

‘Flashing red’: Ominous sign for Australia’s economy

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/flashing-red-ominous-sign-for-australias-economy/news-story/d238b243be51a9954a7be86490293b6c

Maybe he better go and talk to Tim Glasson

"But in roughly 100 days, an economic bloodbath will commence."

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/experts-predict-economic-bloodbath-when-jobkeeper-jobseeker-ends/news-story/e9b3294b3889105ec6e5fa2c3b9c0501

One of these days, Jason Murphy will be right?

[Waltzing]

we are hoping that some asset prices get pushed down in the next 6 to 12 months in AUS.

almost every prediction they made back in winter of 2020 never played out.

[Beagle]

Glassons Australia has been going gangbusters despite occasional state lockdowns. Wonder how they will go when the vaccine is fully rolled out, no more lockdowns and they expand their store network...Hmmm

[Waltzing]

we are hoping for a small last drop in travel stocks and then imagine just how champagne popping next Melbourne Cup and the Kiwi's who will travel over for that.

they aussi will have so much cheap wine to drink this winter i cant imagine many sober aussi's..

[Ferg]

This guy a real cheer germ

‘Flashing red’: Ominous sign for Australia’s economy

https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/australian-economy/flashing-red-ominous-sign-for-australias-economy/news-story/d238b243be51a9954a7be86490293b6c

Maybe he better go and talk to Tim Glasson
Thanks for the link. Basically he is saying businesses are not taking out loans therefore they are not investing in income producing assets and this portends another recession. I have another interpretation as to why businesses are not taking out new loans; something I am seeing with my clients. Profits and cashflow have been exceptional such that a) bank debts have been repaid and b) some growth capex is now being funded from cashflow whereas previously it was put on tick. I'm not seeing a reduction in growth spend for the future, quite the reverse, but this expansion is being funded from cashflow and/or retained profits.

P.S. I say this acknowledging I am only seeing a very very small part of the NZ market and this may not be representative of the entire economy.

[Waltzing]

Ferg's post will be music to everyone's ears...:t_up:

[winner69]

Glassons sound like new stores are likely soon ...paid for out of cash flows

[RTM]

Ferg's post will be music to everyone's ears...:t_up:

Except maybe Heartland shareholders.

[iceman]

Except maybe Heartland shareholders.

Gives us (HGH) more money to lend to the more profitable vehicle and reverse mortgages :-)

[nztx]

Wrong thread obviously .. but it sounds like some expect HGH to have it's hand out ? ;)

back to old habits maybe ?


but no danger of anything like that with HLG as the competition in the land of funny coloured
large centre rock likely continues to get blasted to smithereens .. ;)

[nztx]

Sooner or later the inhabitants hiding under the large rock are going to wake up and start
exploring for HLG shares from afar over yonder, if they haven't already started .. ;)

[iceman]

Sooner or later the inhabitants hiding under the large rock are going to wake up and start
exploring for HLG shares from afar over yonder, if they haven't already started .. ;)

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself :t_up:

[Habits]

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself :t_up:

Nicely put

[Habits]

Covid 19 coronavirus profits: Was pandemic a blessing for NZX-listed retail companies?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12431781

Paywalled sorry

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pentup demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

The reporter tabulated profit, revenue amd dividends but was remiss not including yields imo

[Ferg]

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pent up demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

Sorry for the long post - my thoughts = Yeah Nah to that article.

This is interesting because in my observations, and I think I can also speak for winner and his observations re big box hardware stores, what we saw in May/June 2020 was the clearing of the backlog of pent up demand from the lockdown in March/April 2020. The pent up demand came about due to the inability to access certain items during the lockdown. I haven't (can't, pay walled) read the article so to claim the pent up demand extended right through the end of 2020 into 2021 is IMO a long bow to draw. However, given the huge growth in top line revenues in mid 2020, that will be hard to beat in 2021 (and maybe in some cases replicate) so we may see slower or no growth in Q2 and Q3 2021. Although Q2 includes April which was mostly shut last year so April gains may offset May and June declines. In summary, this does not necessarily mean a decline in top line revenues given what I am seeing is a "new normal" level of activity. My clients are still showing no signs of reduced demand, and whilst we are still seeing growth, the growth rate is expected to slow.

Also, I think we have had a 2 speed economy for the last 12 months. Whilst the regions have been tearing along in 5th gear for the past 11 months, anecdotally Auckland and Queenstown (and Northland?) have been struggling in second gear. Any decline in growth in the regions may be partially offset by a resurgence of spend in Auckland. Unless they are sitting on funds for that elusive overseas holiday or they have lost their jobs.....it's hard to tell with so many moving parts.

However, I do agree that spend that would have been earmarked for overseas holidays has been diverted to local spend. We are definitely seeing a surge in spending on properties with extra funds flowing into retail and cars etc. How long this continues remains to be seen, but in discussions with friends and neighbours, those that normally travel frequently (especially to escape the winter) are cautious about resuming overseas travel in the short term while the virus is still rampant overseas. Most are talking about resuming travelling in 2022, assuming there are no other setbacks.

Also, as we went through lockdown in 2020 we were forecasting doom and gloom in about June/July 2020. As each month passed the expected month of doom kept being pushed out another month or two. About 6 months ago (?) we gave up on that and have embraced the new normal - albeit with a cautious eye to forward orders and knowing where we can cull costs if sales collapse.

In summary I believe some businesses will come out of the pandemic stronger and I think HLG fits into that category, along with FPH & FRE to name only 2 others. Interesting times indeed.

[nztx]

What brand was your Easter egg and what liquid was inside it ? Might try to get one next year myself :t_up:

Actually the last couple of dividends bought two large baskets, with a pile left over for years to come .. ;)

what was your favourite flavour ? ;)

[nztx]

Covid 19 coronavirus profits: Was pandemic a blessing for NZX-listed retail companies?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12431781

Paywalled sorry

Of the three analysts spoken to all were negative on future earnings prospects putting the revenue growth down to diversion of holiday funds and pentup demand. Carolyn Holmes at Shareclarity "warned ... the pandemic-induced profit bubble would pop". Which seems to justify in their minds the similar earnings multiples to pre-pandemic

The reporter tabulated profit, revenue amd dividends but was remiss not including yields imo


I've hinted at this before posting here - with references towards normalised trading conditions & results again
with reporting in next 6-12 months

Uniquely positioned businesses may come out better.. those who have done work adapting even better

And then there will the others who see downturn or mediocre

and a few IPO's who rode high in Covid Trading / visibility - we know who they are likely & where the market
has already started relocating / rating them to .. possibly with further slippage to follow .. ;)

[Beagle]

I think the apparel stats out on both sides of the Tasman show there has been no strong bounce-back or "revenge spending" after Covid lockdowns. Yes there's been a lot of spending on ones house as people nest more and from what I have witnessed a lot of people are looking for new hobbies, (try ordering a new popular model boat or campervan and see what the wait lists are like, I have given up).

I think Glassons Australia market share will continue to grow strongly in the years ahead and HLG is still priced as a no growth company. The last day it trades cum the 23 cent fully imputed interim dividend is Wednesday 7 April. After that we look forward to possible inclusion in the NZX50 later this year and a potentially record final dividend for FY21 just before Christmas.

[Waltzing]

imagine if NZ50.. will move from KMD then...its retail but you need a new outfit to travel on those new fancy outfitted econo classes with sleeping births.

[winner69]

I think Glassons in particular are monotonectally syndicating it’s bricks-and-clicks strategy very well.

Leading to significantly higher levels of market presence.

[peat]

monotonectally

???
do you mean monotonically which is defined as varying in such a way that it either never decreases or never increases.

[Balance]

Collated the dividends I have received from HLG in the last year - absolutely outstanding yield return especially on my entry prices.

I have been told that one of the big brokers recently added HLG to their high yield portfolio and balanced growth/yield portfolio. Must have been sooooo hard for them to make that decision?

[winner69]

???
do you mean monotonically which is defined as varying in such a way that it either never decreases or never increases.

No peat

I was at a presentation the other day and the guy pitching his wares used 'monotonectally'

Being the questioning type I asked him what it meant and seeing he had got it from the handbook of good phrases to use when making a pitch he muttered something but was obviously lost.

Modern technological enabled me to find out while he continued with his bull **** and then I asked him 'why didn't you just say you are going to efficiently drive technically sound growth strategies with out-of-the-box action items.' Even that has too many buzz words.

I think he needs to polish up on his pitching skills

But I thought its something that Glassons are doing well :)

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Collated the dividends I have received from HLG in the last year - absolutely outstanding yield return especially on my entry prices.

I have been told that one of the big brokers recently added HLG to their high yield portfolio and balanced growth/yield portfolio. Must have been sooooo hard for them to make that decision?

Given the delayed interim dividend in August - then HLG is going to have an insanely high trailing 12 month dividend yield until we lap the August date again (until then the trailing 12 month calculation will include 3 dividend payments). Prepare possibly for some new investors due to seeing the automatically generated yield % on their stocks app of choice.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

what sort of drop does everyone expect from going Ex-Div tomorrow?

[winner69]

what sort of drop does everyone expect from going Ex-Div tomorrow?

Big worry is how fast seeweed dumps his shares to get the divie

But that broker Balance mentioned will see us right

[winner69]

what sort of drop does everyone expect from going Ex-Div tomorrow?

Didn't drop much more than the amount of the divie last time in December --- and share price higher than what it was back there

[see weed]

Big worry is how fast seeweed dumps his shares to get the divie

But that broker Balance mentioned will see us right
SW Asset Management is still buying today. And bought 1 share @ 7.61 and is waiting for the other 1,999 to go through. SW does the big dumps before the 31/3/21 for tax purposes.

[winner69]

SW Asset Management is still buying today. And bought 1 share @ 7.61 and is waiting for the other 1,999 to go through. SW does the big dumps before the 31/3/21 for tax purposes.

Others more keen for you eh seeweed?

[Waltzing]

with the chatter out of europe over night we have halted buying and fingers have move to the opposite. Movements in the east and the commentary from on the ground last night means we have halted all buying of all stocks on NZ and Aus exchange.

I should says this comes from information from people moving from central ukraine to germany for 90 days.

These are just comments from scared people we received last night in Zoom.

Wont be on the news..

Just not buying HLG bigly at the moment, not selling either.

[winner69]

with the chatter out of europe over night we have halted buying and fingers have move to the opposite. Movements in the east and the commentary from on the ground last night means we have halted all buying of all stocks on NZ and Aus exchange.

Sounds serious - better watch the news tonight

My dad told me the Crimean War ended in 1856 but that part of the world always seem to be in conflict with each other.

[macduffy]

with the chatter out of europe over night we have halted buying and fingers have move to the opposite. Movements in the east and the commentary from on the ground last night means we have halted all buying of all stocks on NZ and Aus exchange.

Sounds like a good move. Can't rely on those Easterners to buy much from HLG.

;);

[Waltzing]

"Easterners to buy much from HLG"

H&M when they get to germany and sweden.

actually they are terrified right now.

unlikely but if someone goes looney then markets will take a hit and then HLG will be a Buy.

we dont whatch ruby sorry... to busy whatching the real world.

[see weed]

what sort of drop does everyone expect from going Ex-Div tomorrow?
About 27c. The good news on Morningstar is yld at 8.46% and paying 62c div.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

About 27c.

how about 26c

[peat]

haha
so you identified some BS
and flung it around lol
we can rely on you winner :p



I'm still holding some.




No peat

I was at a presentation the other day and the guy pitching his wares used 'monotonectally'

Being the questioning type I asked him what it meant and seeing he had got it from the handbook of good phrases to use when making a pitch he muttered something but was obviously lost.

Modern technological enabled me to find out while he continued with his bull **** and then I asked him 'why didn't you just say you are going to efficiently drive technically sound growth strategies with out-of-the-box action items.' Even that has too many buzz words.

I think he needs to polish up on his pitching skills

But I thought its something that Glassons are doing well :)

[winner69]

Whatever the share price today it will be a lot higher when it next goes ex-divie

Maybe even 10 bucks ..but 9 bucks plus will do. That’s only 20% away

[Balance]

haha
so you identified some BS
and flung it around lol
we can rely on you winner :p



I'm still holding some.

W69 story reminds me of a presentation by a fund manager years ago who advised the audience to look for stocks with high progressive co-efficient multiples!

Asked to explain further, he did snd lost everyone and I dare say, his credibility as well!

[winner69]

haha
so you identified some BS
and flung it around lol
we can rely on you winner :p



I'm still holding some.

Well, those trying to raise equity need to align and engage with potential investors in a more down to earth way.

But then again there seems a whole industry advising such people how to put together a ‘sophisticated and compelling pitch’ for funds.

[peat]

W69 story reminds me of a presentation by a fund manager years ago who advised the audience to look for stocks with high progressive co-efficient multiples!

Asked to explain further, he did snd lost everyone and I dare say, his credibility as well!

probably meant this huh

"the coefficient of multiple correlation is a measure of how well a given variable can be predicted using a linear function of a set of other variables"

so he is recommending we seek predictability.

[winner69]

W69 story reminds me of a presentation by a fund manager years ago who advised the audience to look for stocks with high progressive co-efficient multiples!

Asked to explain further, he did snd lost everyone and I dare say, his credibility as well!

...probably went on to explain efficient frontiers and such things.

[Balance]

probably meant this huh

"the coefficient of multiple correlation is a measure of how well a given variable can be predicted using a linear function of a set of other variables"

so he is recommending we seek predictability.

Wow!

And to think that we in the audience doubted him!

[alokdhir]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sugar-rush-retail-spend-coming-to-an-end-kiwibank/TZOZ3D2LGY7PIDN6FXLBT2YQSE/

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/sugar-rush-retail-spend-coming-to-an-end-kiwibank/TZOZ3D2LGY7PIDN6FXLBT2YQSE/

highly misleading. That Kiwibank report states card spending is up 41.8% year on year for the march quarter. the 9% is a normal seasonal drop from December quarter.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/109864/kiwibank-economists-say-according-banks-own-transaction-data-spending#comment-1312396

[winner69]

highly misleading. That Kiwibank report states card spending is up 41.8% year on year for the march quarter. the 9% is a normal seasonal drop from December quarter.

https://www.interest.co.nz/personal-finance/109864/kiwibank-economists-say-according-banks-own-transaction-data-spending#comment-1312396


I think you are misinterpreting Mary Jo’s numbers as well

But never mind the report is rubbish ...best to forget it.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I think you are misinterpreting Mary Jo’s numbers as well

But never mind the report is rubbish ...best to forget it.

dont think I am - here it is on the Kiwibank website https://inner.kiwi/commentary/snap-lockdown-snaps-spending-streak/ - lots of charts showing the huge year on year increases as well.

[Habits]

'Price of everything' set to increase: Consumers face pain at the checkout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12433381

Paywalled.
Retail NZ says increased costs at the shelves is only a matter of time ... for everything retail from food to goods

[alokdhir]

'Price of everything' set to increase: Consumers face pain at the checkout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12433381

Paywalled.
Retail NZ says increased costs at the shelves is only a matter of time ... for everything retail from food to goods

Inflation will also lead to reduction of discretionary spends at HLG / WHS type stores ...as people will prioritise essentials over their stuff ...IMHO

Inflation always hit poorest hardest ...WHS !!!

[Habits]

Inflation will also lead to reduction of discretionary spends at HLG / WHS type stores ...as people will prioritise essentials over their stuff ...IMHO

Inflation always hit poorest hardest ...WHS !!!

The poorest ie beneficiaries and low paid workers have just received big income rises.

[Balance]

The poorest ie beneficiaries and low paid workers have just received big income rises.

Just enough to cover pending rental increases and maybe, enough leftover to pay for price increases at food and takeaways?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Just enough to cover pending rental increases and maybe, enough leftover to pay for price increases at food and takeaways?

Minimum wage workers have seen their incomes increase far faster than the cost of living increases over the last 4 years.

The median rent in New Zealand has increased by about $110 a week over the last 4 years. but that's median, the lower quartile of rental properties has increased by quite a bit less than that no doubt.

A household with 2 minimum wage full time workers meanwhile has seen their combined income increase by $340 over that same time period, and possibly significantly more if they were also eligible for accomodation supplement.

[Cyclical]

Minimum wage workers have seen their incomes increase far faster than the cost of living increases over the last 4 years.

The median rent in New Zealand has increased by about $110 a week over the last 4 years. but that's median, the lower quartile of rental properties has increased by quite a bit less than that no doubt.

A household with 2 minimum wage full time workers meanwhile has seen their combined income increase by $340 over that same time period, and possibly significantly more if they were also eligible for accomodation supplement.

LEK, please don't confuse us with facts.

[Cyclical]

'Price of everything' set to increase: Consumers face pain at the checkout
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12433381

Paywalled.
Retail NZ says increased costs at the shelves is only a matter of time ... for everything retail from food to goods

I recon this combined with an increasingly broken freight logistics landscape impacting importers and exporters is going to mean some pretty serious challenges going forward for the economy as a whole. A lot of moving parts (or not moving as the case may be) and knock on effects. Will be interesting to see how it impacts some stocks, but also to see the bounce back as things get back on the track (2022?).

[dibble]

Inflation will also lead to reduction of discretionary spends at HLG / WHS type stores ...as people will prioritise essentials over their stuff ...IMHO

Inflation always hit poorest hardest ...WHS !!!

I think you overestimate the amount of brain power people apply to inflation and prices in general. Despite a large chunk of the population having negligible net worth somehow (I've never quite fathomed how, pay-day loan/ pawnshops? dont you eventually have to pay them back/run out of things to sell?) people find money to buy stuff they want. A few dollars here or there dont seem to make much difference.

Also to describe HLG as "discretionary" is a fun debate.

[winner69]

Share price currently below MA30 and not that far above the MA100

That MA30 line does look rather cyclical over time ....and its heading down at the moment

I need to keep a closer eye than normal on action

[Waltzing]

winner there are periods where the price has not always sold off at this time of year.

looking to re establish our historical price databases via various data feeds.

hang on vetter check my words carefully... nah havnt got time.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Share price currently below MA30 and not that far above the MA100

That MA30 line does look rather cyclical over time ....and its heading down at the moment

I need to keep a closer eye than normal on action

Are your squiggly lines adjusted for ex-dividend movements?

[winner69]

Accidentally watched the shameless cheerleaders on CNBC today ..please forgive me

Somebody said something like this - with changing inflation & interest rates, finding a single investment that provides income, total return, and low volatility might become difficult.....the definition of capital preservation is changing he said

I yelled at him ‘put it all into HLG’:t_up:

[BlackPeter]

Share price currently below MA30 and not that far above the MA100

That MA30 line does look rather cyclical over time ....and its heading down at the moment

I need to keep a closer eye than normal on action

Noticed that ShareClarity just downgraded their DCF valuation of HLG from $7.27 to $7.04. Do they know something we don't?

[winner69]

Noticed that ShareClarity just downgraded their DCF valuation of HLG from $7.27 to $7.04. Do they know something we don't?

...and they usually so optimistic, like a lot of their ‘value gaps’ are +30% or more ...not like the -4% they have for HLG

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend March from Stats NZ

Apparel spend for March month up 50.2% on March last year ...wow

But down 2.4% from February in seasonally adjusted terms....and March quarter down 6.2% from December quarter in seasonally adjusted terms

Maybe thats why Shareclarity lowered their DCF valuation

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Electronic Card Spend March from Stats NZ

Apparel spend for March month up 50.2% on March last year ...wow

But down 2.4% from February in seasonally adjusted terms....and March quarter down 6.2% from December quarter in seasonally adjusted terms

Maybe thats why Shareclarity lowered their DCF valuation

Don't forget the country's biggest retail region (Auckland) was in level 3 lockdown for the first week of March (no stores open), followed by a further 5 days in level 2 (reduced store capacity/traffic). To be down 2.4% from Feb (and up 50% Y-o-Y) is quite a good result in that respect.

[Habits]

Accidentally watched the shameless cheerleaders on CNBC today ..please forgive me

Somebody said something like this - with changing inflation & interest rates, finding a single investment that provides income, total return, and low volatility might become difficult.....the definition of capital preservation is changing he said

I yelled at him ‘put it all into HLG’:t_up:

Hahaha you tell him winner

[winner69]

Glassons going to cream it in Australia.

Economists call it extraordinary

Consumer sentiment soars to 11 year high

https://www.westpac.com.au/content/dam/public/wbc/documents/pdf/aw/economics-research/er20210414BullConsumerSentiment.pdf

[oldtech]

Market doesn't seem impressed ...:scared:

[Balance]

Market doesn't seem impressed ...:scared:

You are going to give yourself a coronary.

Suspect that HLG is not a stock for you if you are jumpy over bugger all %tage movements in the stock.

[peat]

Market doesn't seem impressed ...:scared:
you spurred it into life almost to the second! :)

12436

medium term HLG is still digesting 785 top I reckon.
chart is a little bearish since then tbh
12437

but I still hold half. if I am going to hold anything this has to be one of them.

[sb9]

Well, in the meantime another juicy divvy payment landed in bank a/c.

[Balance]

Well, in the meantime another juicy divvy payment landed in bank a/c.

Most rewarding to see that in the bank a/c this morning indeed!

[oldtech]

you spurred it into life almost to the second! :)

Glad to know I have such an impact!


You are going to give yourself a coronary.

Suspect that HLG is not a stock for you if you are jumpy over bugger all %tage movements in the stock.

Nah I'm good Balance. Merely an observation, HLG is a firm hold for me and with my entry price it would have to fall a fair bit more before I started getting seriously worried.

ATM now, there's a different story! My blood pressure definitely can't cope with that so I stay well away,

[Mudfish]

Can someone please clarify this for me. I think the directors were given shares today as part of their remuneration package. Is this correct or did they use their own money to buy them?

[winner69]

Can someone please clarify this for me. I think the directors were given shares today as part of their remuneration package. Is this correct or did they use their own money to buy them?

Company would have bought shares (on behalf of those involved)

It all works like this (from Annual Report)-

The Company operates an employee share scheme for certain senior executives to purchase ordinary shares in the Company.

The Company provides the employees with limited recourse loans on an interest free basis to assist employees’ participation.

The loans are applied to purchase shares on market and the shares are treated as treasury stock.

The loan amount is the total market value of the shares plus any commission applicable on the date of purchase. Any dividends payable on the shares are applied towards the repayment of the advance.

Shares purchased under the scheme are held by two directors as custodians and vest three years from the date of purchase. In the event the employee leaves the company during the vesting period, the loan is repaid by selling the shares on market. Any gain or loss arising from the sale of shares is included in equity. Refer to note 5.1 for further detail on treasury stock.
In accordance with NZ IFRS 2 this scheme is an equity-settled scheme.

[Cyclical]

Well, in the meantime another juicy divvy payment landed in bank a/c.


Most rewarding to see that in the bank a/c this morning indeed!

Yes indeed. Debating whether that should go straight back into more HLG stock or not and pretend it's a DRP.

[Mudfish]

In a past post, I was thinking nothing but a bright future for HLG and was hoping SP could indeed go to $8. I found it easy to hold pre-divi, as the divi is such a beauty. This side of the divi I have spent a bit of time digging around to see if it is worth holding on during the winter season. I can not for the life of me work out if HLG is in fact a growth story of a cyclic story that has been, temporarily, positively effected by COVID. I see the SP as being valued anywhere between $6 and $8 depending on what PE value is assigned. From the report, 17% sales increase in the first 7 weeks sounds promising but who knows what the sales margins are due to transportation costs? Also, I can't get an accurate hold on the impacts of the wage subsidy, and short recent lock-downs. Basically, I'm confused. Therefore, for the record, I have sold out and no longer a holder. However, I will be watching very closely, if the SP does indeed present a future opportunity, I will be back for that awesome divi. Good luck all, I expect the SP will rocket up now, ha.

[Waltzing]

You can run out of coat hangers. Check the sales of coat hangers.

I think there was manufacture in NZ who made a fortune from them and then bought some race horses.

You can also run out of wardrobe space even when you have clothes in more than one country.

Selling on the highs with this stock has always worked in the past.

Then you end up just throwing all the Huge Boss jackets you buy at the airports on the furniture and your partner starts throwing them at you.

As this whole pandemic thing goes on and on surely they will get sick of buying new clothes.

DISC: holding in multiple portfolios.

[BlackPeter]

In a past post, I was thinking nothing but a bright future for HLG and was hoping SP could indeed go to $8. I found it easy to hold pre-divi, as the divi is such a beauty. This side of the divi I have spent a bit of time digging around to see if it is worth holding on during the winter season. I can not for the life of me work out if HLG is in fact a growth story of a cyclic story that has been, temporarily, positively effected by COVID. I see the SP as being valued anywhere between $6 and $8 depending on what PE value is assigned. From the report, 17% sales increase in the first 7 weeks sounds promising but who knows what the sales margins are due to transportation costs? Also, I can't get an accurate hold on the impacts of the wage subsidy, and short recent lock-downs. Basically, I'm confused. Therefore, for the record, I have sold out and no longer a holder. However, I will be watching very closely, if the SP does indeed present a future opportunity, I will be back for that awesome divi. Good luck all, I expect the SP will rocket up now, ha.

Sounds like a rational decision. Obviously - markets are not always behaving rational ;);

Discl: past holder, but subscribing to the cyclical nature theory of HLG as well ...

[dibble]

Sounds like a rational decision. Obviously - markets are not always behaving rational ;);

Discl: past holder, but subscribing to the cyclical nature theory of HLG as well ...

Its a curious stock, I sold out a while ago on one of the price oscillations, from memory I think because I thought wearing clothes was just a fad, somehting like that. But got back in last year, uncharacteristically buying low. Think I'll hang on as, despite the chances of it receding again to $3, the crowds I regularly see in the shops and minimal debt thing suggest they will survive and prosper and the divs are worth the trouble. For me any genuine growth is just a bonus.

[Mudfish]

Its a curious stock, I sold out a while ago on one of the price oscillations, from memory I think because I thought wearing clothes was just a fad, somehting like that. But got back in last year, uncharacteristically buying low. Think I'll hang on as, despite the chances of it receding again to $3, the crowds I regularly see in the shops and minimal debt thing suggest they will survive and prosper and the divs are worth the trouble. For me any genuine growth is just a bonus.

Fair enough Dibby. Divi is awesome, I'll be watching through the winter to see if SP slides then I may rejoin you. I bought low $7s so too much risk for me to sit I think. :)

[Jay]

Finger hovering over the Sell button, Av price around $6.90
Actually lower if I include those in the longer term portfolio, but those longer term hold at this point

Good divi though

[Cyclical]

Finger hovering over the Sell button, Av price around $6.90
Actually lower if I include those in the longer term portfolio, but those longer term hold at this point

Good divi though

No idea how you are structured and what percentages are against what portfolio of course, but in this situation, say you have a 50/50 split between your portfolios and, for argument's sake, your average buy is $6, selling a bunch at ~$7.30 would yield a profit of ~1.30, of which the tax man would probably want to take 43c (at a rate of 33%), which means you're down 3 cents... That little calculation tends to factor into my decision making process when I'm sitting on the fence about something.

Anyway, my average is sub $4, which gives a nice buffer to be able to sit on it long term and reap the divies. I think their growth into Oz, combined with today's low interest rate environment, greatly reduces the chances of this being cyclical to the point where we would see anything like the lows we've seen in the past.

[Waltzing]

" I think their growth into Oz, combined with today's low interest rate environment, greatly reduces the chances of this being cyclical to the point where we would see anything like the lows we've seen in the past."

Agree.

[Cyclical]

" I think their growth into Oz, combined with today's low interest rate environment, greatly reduces the chances of this being cyclical to the point where we would see anything like the lows we've seen in the past."

Agree.



Another thing to consider with Oz is that it's growth off the back of earnings, not funded through debt or share diluting capital raises. Yeah, nah, it's a keeper in my books.

[Jay]

No idea how you are structured and what percentages are against what portfolio of course, but in this situation, say you have a 50/50 split between your portfolios and, for argument's sake, your average buy is $6, selling a bunch at ~$7.30 would yield a profit of ~1.30, of which the tax man would probably want to take 43c (at a rate of 33%), which means you're down 3 cents... That little calculation tends to factor into my decision making process when I'm sitting on the fence about something.

Anyway, my average is sub $4, which gives a nice buffer to be able to sit on it long term and reap the divies. I think their growth into Oz, combined with today's low interest rate environment, greatly reduces the chances of this being cyclical to the point where we would see anything like the lows we've seen in the past.

Thanks Cyclical, good to keep in mind that calculation

Just worked out the overall Av price and it is $6.70 - bought proportionally less at the lower price

[Balance]

Having a look at my HLG dividend statement which arrived by post today.

Must say the numbers in there look almost unreal in today's low interest rate environment - interim dividend 3.15% cash yield on today's sp of $7.28 and gross yield of 4.39%!

Hard to find another stock like that - no debt, high yield, strong online platform and Australia providing the growth option.

Meanwhile, it is interesting to note that HLG has a rather stable share register of mostly retail investors :

- Excluding Tim Glasson, top 20 shareholders own 19% of the company
- 44% or 3,595 (67% of shareholders) own between 2,000 to 50,000 shares.

Lots of happy campers in the share register, enjoying the high yield and capital growth.

[Waltzing]

and another at least 24 cents as final.

all growth funded as stated above by earnings.

Stunning stuff.

[Rawz]

HLG is a definite hold for me due to:

- Strong balance sheet
- Big divvy
- Glasson's growth opportunities in Aussie

And one thing I am picking is a big bounce in performance from Hallensteins which hasn't fired of late. I am picking that they are going to sell a truck load of suits for the school balls coming up and then carry on selling a truck load of suits through spring/summer wedding season.

The cherry on the cake is going to be when​ HLG make it into the top 50.

[peat]

if we want to think super defensively (which I am increasingly doing) then debt free companies have a huge advantage over those companies who may have to hock off assets if times get tough and bankers get nervous

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Purchased a shirt from Hallensteins for the first time in years this week. good selection, helpful staff and "a good vibe". Surprising amount of female shoppers (?) - haven't quite got my head around what that meant, not sure if they were buying for themselves or as gifts for males.

[winner69]

Purchased a shirt form Hallensteins for the first time in years this week. good selection, helpful staff and "a good vibe". Surprising amount of female shoppers (?) - haven't quite got my head around what that meant, not sure if they were buying for themselves or as gifts for males.

Probably for themselves .....quite popular with the ‘corporate set’ I’m told

[Getty]

Yep, the're getting shirty...

[Waltzing]

God Kvall

Winner usually comments on AUS retail sales data which is out today for March.

[winner69]

God Kvall

Winner usually comments on AUS retail sales data which is out today for March.

AFR said smashed expectations

Clothing sector did well


That’s good enough for me

[Balance]

AFR said smashed expectations

Clothing sector did well


That’s good enough for me

And forecasts are for more of the same :

"We expect consumer spending growth, which includes retail sales and other services, to remain strong this year reflecting the recovery in jobs, strong levels of consumer confidence, low interest rates, positive wealth effects from gains in house prices and shares and pent up demand evident in high saving rates,"

[Davexl]

Price up nicely - albeit low volumes

[winner69]

Price up nicely - albeit low volumes

Price down unnicely - albeit low volumes

Close at 724 - 1.3% off days high

[Waltzing]

NZ/AUD could see a stronger AUS Dollar going forward for the rest of 2021/2022.

[Waltzing]

ASX listing after inclusion in NZX 50.

[Habits]

ASX listing after inclusion in NZX 50.

Replacement needed for ATM aka A2M

[Balance]

Replacement needed for ATM aka A2M

Good point as it’s a matter of time before ATM decamps to ASX like Xero, Nufarm & Lion Nathan.

[Getty]

I cant believe it.

HLG report out for @ !.5 hours, yet all the usual rampers and dampers have not typed a word.

Must be this damn Covid eh?

[BlackPeter]

I cant believe it.

HLG report out for @ !.5 hours, yet all the usual rampers and dampers have not typed a word.

Must be this damn Covid eh?

They probably just wanted to give you a chance to contribute something of value to the thread :);

Apart from that - nice pictures and well known results (already published 26 of March :p). Just read back in the thread whatever people thought at the time ....

[winner69]

I cant believe it.

HLG report out for @ !.5 hours, yet all the usual rampers and dampers have not typed a word.

Must be this damn Covid eh?

Just the glossy version of what they put out a few weeks ago

All old news ..even some of the photos aren’t new

[Getty]

They will have to be patient ...lol

[Waltzing]

"Must be this damn Covid eh?"

its the opposite. There is now just a 12 month wait to see what the AUS market does.

As we all know vaccines will be shipped world wide and the fire put out slowly.

Standing next to flight crews from AUS in Cordis hotel in auckland at the weekend. A sign of things to come as international flight crews mingle with the locals.

At least they were not at the bar.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I cant believe it.

HLG report out for @ !.5 hours, yet all the usual rampers and dampers have not typed a word.

Must be this damn Covid eh?

Why would anyone care about "ramping or damping" a report we already had all the details of weeks ago? there was nothing new released today.

[Balance]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371407

Good to see another Glasson (James) moving up the ranks - fashion obviously runs in the family's blood.

"James joined Glassons Australia in 2013, after completing a Master of Arts; Fashion Retail at the London College of Fashion (University of Arts).

Taking on various roles within the business over the last 8 years, including Brand Manager, General Manager, Acting National Retail Manager, James was appointed CEO of Glassons Australia in October 2017.

James has been instrumental in the brand’s success by overseeing and driving growth for the business across all sectors including product, eCommerce, marketing and operations."

He also manages a team of over 750 to ensure an unparalleled company culture."

[James108]

I don't really like Nepotism but you can't argue with the results in Aus.

[850man]

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/371407

Good to see another Glasson (James) moving up the ranks - fashion obviously runs in the family's blood.

"James joined Glassons Australia in 2013, after completing a Master of Arts; Fashion Retail at the London College of Fashion (University of Arts).

Taking on various roles within the business over the last 8 years, including Brand Manager, General Manager, Acting National Retail Manager, James was appointed CEO of Glassons Australia in October 2017.

James has been instrumental in the brand’s success by overseeing and driving growth for the business across all sectors including product, eCommerce, marketing and operations."

He also manages a team of over 750 to ensure an unparalleled company culture."

I'm pleased to see James' appointment in to this role, his track record speaks for itself. The market should also take kindly to it however it will all come down to the numbers in the end

[Habits]

I'm pleased to see James' appointment in to this role, his track record speaks for itself. The market should also take kindly to it however it will all come down to the numbers in the end

Yes but James 108 does not want the other James to be number 1 and that is totally understandable... competition amongst the James's I guess

[peat]

I don't really like Nepotism but you can't argue with the results in Aus.

Look at those credentials!!!

[nztx]

Time to back up the truck again ? ;)

[Balance]

Look at those credentials!!!

He has done the hard yards with his qualifications and proven his credentials with the growth of Glasson in OZ.

A worthy appointment to the BOD if ever there was one!

[winner69]

Mr Lew said ‘sales performance at the company’s stores following the lockdowns upon reopening had “fully offset the cost of supporting our teams”, meaning the JobKeeper funds were not required.

Not paying back all of what they got but at least a bit of a conscience


https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/solomon-lew-s-premier-investments-to-repay-15-6-million-in-jobkeeper-funds-20210503-p57oal.html

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Mr Lew said ‘sales performance at the company’s stores following the lockdowns upon reopening had “fully offset the cost of supporting our teams”, meaning the JobKeeper funds were not required.

Not paying back all of what they got but at least a bit of a conscience


https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/solomon-lew-s-premier-investments-to-repay-15-6-million-in-jobkeeper-funds-20210503-p57oal.html

How is this relevant to HLG?

[macduffy]

How is this relevant to HLG?

It's not, directly. Solomon Lew heads a retail "empire" so there is a tenuous relevance?

[winner69]

It's not, directly. Solomon Lew heads a retail "empire" so there is a tenuous relevance?

....mainly selling clothes and in competition to HLG

[Waltzing]

US retail share prices up such as GAP.

Global retail shares next to reflate.

HLG SP no longer dependant on NZ alone.

[winner69]

Both NZ and Oz Retail Stats apparel/clothing have reported strong sales in March and April

All good for HLG sales - esp as they must be gaining share as well

Shareprice has to get to 8 bucks soon and then head to 9 bucks

[Habits]

"Ground floor: perfumery
Stationery and leather goods
Wigs and haberdashery
Kitchenware and food
Going up

First floor: telephones
Gents' ready-made suits
Shirts, socks, ties, hats
Underwear and shoes
Going up

Second floor: carpets
Travel goods and beddings
Materials and soft furnishing
Restaurant and teas"

(Courtesy Are You Being Served)

....

Seventh floor bikinis, hats and summerwear... going up lolz it is all going up


Now that the SP has been hanging on the seventh floor for too long, it is time to make a move to the 'eighth' floor

[Cyclical]

Both NZ and Oz Retail Stats apparel/clothing have reported strong sales in March and April

All good for HLG sales - esp as they must be gaining share as well

Shareprice has to get to 8 bucks soon and then head to 9 bucks

It's been languishing at these levels for quite some time, must be ripe for some positive news and a nudge forward...I'm getting a bit bored with these juicy dividends not being diluted a little by a higher SP.

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=ZW7RLsod&id=A73DF5280BBDCB51C0F70972B131790B26739DC9&thid=OIP.ZW7RLsodidd5FQ4Lkx940AHaE7&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fthumbs.dreamstime.com%2fb%2 fbeagle-dog-waits-food-near-bowl-sad-waiting-empty-96556691.jpg&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR656e d12eca1d89d779150e0b931f78d0%3frik%3dyZ1zJgt5MbFyC Q%26pid%3dImgRaw&exph=533&expw=800&q=beagle+nudging+his+food+bowl&simid=607992052948869299&ck=DA58EC403A8915E34485457220FE8384&selectedIndex=48&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0 If I'm patient there will big another big feed
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=B1CZ%2FRLi&id=850A7E8E35218AC0A9E13F0EF5434E3C5EC73A8E&thid=OIP.B1CZ_RLiFVtnPtgBUzHnLAAAAA&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fs-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com%2Foriginals%2F7b%2F5b%2F5c%2F7b5b5c 2cf205de4a51345505ca321f87.jpg&cdnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR0750 99fd12e2155b673ed8015331e72c%3Frik%3DjjrHXjxOQ%252 fUOPw%26pid%3DImgRaw&exph=680&expw=441&q=beagle+nudging+his+food+bowl&simid=608027520778582359&ck=FE5CB63E52620B01D743E777DA51CAB9&selectedindex=50&form=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&sim=11 I want some more right now
https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=LZD47ueA&id=02D347252CE3E8425497603ED87C22B7783B0AE2&thid=OIP.LZD47ueAT_G_hocF9qG1jwHaLF&mediaurl=https%3A%2F%2Fthumbs.dreamstime.com%2Fb%2 Fbeagle-dog-couch-licking-his-itching-skin-legs-vertical-photo-pet-health-concept-beagle-dog-couch-licking-his-itching-147288187.jpg&cdnurl=https%3A%2F%2Fth.bing.com%2Fth%2Fid%2FR2d90 f8eee7804ff1bf868705f6a1b58f%3Frik%3D4go7eLcifNg%2 52bYA%26pid%3DImgRaw&exph=900&expw=601&q=beagle+nudging+his+food+bowl&simid=608049871785441404&ck=36A28B8C94E1887D9DDEB7A108E86543&selectedindex=49&form=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&vt=0&sim=11 The share price stuck in the 7's means I'm so bored I've started cleaning.

[Waltzing]

was tempted to take a photo of some very bored looking beagles in the Hunt club kennels on saturday's training ride. asleep in the late autumn sun.

CEO of US malls on CNBC says shoppers are experiencing euphoria at being back at the malls. There wont be enough planes to take holiday and shoppers around the world next year.

Dont see these local south pacific stock moving much until next southern hemisphere summer.

[Balance]

All I can say is that I am glad I am in HLG (up 9.8% YTD vs market down 3.3%). Then, there's the 23c fully imputed dividend.

Maybe cryptocurrencies are more suited to those who want continuous price action!

[Waltzing]

Happy if this stock builds up a 12 months and more base at above the 7 handle.

[Beagle]

A few weeks back I hounded up a few more at $7.25 to add to my already extensive holding. I believe patient investors will be very well rewarded over time with this superbly managed company.

[Baa_Baa]

A few weeks back I hounded up a few more at $7.25 to add to my already extensive holding. I believe patient investors will be very well rewarded over time with this superbly managed company.

Historically the SP has behaved like a cyclical, maybe the future is different though. Right now the monthly chart is throwing out warning signals (https://invst.ly/ur-wf) for capital sensitive holders.

[Habits]

Historically the SP has behaved like a cyclical, maybe the future is different though. Right now the monthly chart is throwing out warning signals (https://invst.ly/ur-wf) for capital sensitive holders.

I prefer to scrub out the 2020 price movement, precipitous fall and equally dramatic rebound, and then I think you have a very normal lift from the $7 plus it reached late 2019. TA story is only half the whole. Current price is so easily validated by FA and really is conservative pricing imo. I class myself as capital sensitive but actually am very comfortable because it will perform quite well in terms of returns both capital and cash yield

[Baa_Baa]

I prefer to scrub out the 2020 price movement, precipitous fall and equally dramatic rebound, and then I think you have a very normal lift from the $7 plus it reached late 2019. TA story is only half the whole. Current price is so easily validated by FA and really is conservative pricing imo. I class myself as capital sensitive but actually am very comfortable because it will perform quite well in terms of returns both capital and cash yield

Of course, you are right. TA is only hindsight isn't it, like a rearview mirror, it can't predict the future share price. What it can do is give insights into market sentiment .. face it, the market in TOTO just prices the company yesterday, today and tomorrow regardless of it's actually worth. Sometimes that pricing mechanism, the market, can be confounding because it is influenced by sentiment.

Ignore the sentiment if you will, it's only a chart after all.

[Snow Leopard]

Of course, you are right. TA is only hindsight isn't it, like a rearview mirror, it can't predict the future share price. What it can do is give insights into market sentiment .. face it, the market in TOTO just prices the company yesterday, today and tomorrow regardless of it's actually worth. Sometimes that pricing mechanism, the market, can be confounding because it is influenced by sentiment.

Ignore the sentiment if you will, it's only a chart after all.


Historically the SP has behaved like a cyclical, maybe the future is different though. Right now the monthly chart is throwing out warning signals (https://invst.ly/ur-wf) for capital sensitive holders.

The trick with TA is to remember that the 'sentiment' in the chart is influenced by:

The time frame;
The sentiment of the drawer(who adds all those other lines and labels, to prove the point);
The sentiment of the observer who sees what he wants to see.

Here is a nice 2 month chart that is a simple up, up & away:
12502

What could go wrong?


Note: See SUM thread for another recent 2m chart.

[Habits]

Of course, you are right. TA is only hindsight isn't it, like a rearview mirror, it can't predict the future share price. What it can do is give insights into market sentiment .. face it, the market in TOTO just prices the company yesterday, today and tomorrow regardless of it's actually worth. Sometimes that pricing mechanism, the market, can be confounding because it is influenced by sentiment.

Ignore the sentiment if you will, it's only a chart after all.

Okay please enlighten me on what it is the chart is telling you. Earlier you said the SP is cyclical. Does that mean that in your opinion the SP is returning to the bottom trendline. I am happy to be wrong on that

[iceman]

Apparently Amazon has had some high level executives looking at NZ becoming one of their next forays. This will be interesting to watch as it may have quite signficant effect on many local retailers as it has done elsewhere around the World. Warehouse, Briscoes & HLG may all be affected. Definitely worth watching any developments on this front for holders of any retail stocks in NZ

[Beagle]

Various people have been saying this major international retailer or that one....or this other one are going to really hurt HLG ever since I first bought at ~ $2.70 many years ago.
In the meantime they have been eating other retailers lunch's and grown eps very nicely indeed. Very happy camper.

[iceman]

Various people have been saying this major international retailer or that one....or this other one are going to really hurt HLG ever since I first bought at ~ $2.70 many years ago.
In the meantime they have been eating other retailers lunch's and grown eps very nicely indeed. Very happy camper.

I am a very happy camper in HLG too Beagle. But there have been reports in recent days of increased Amazon interest in NZ and I think it would be ill advised to ignore such a behemoth increasing their footprint in our little marketplace.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Apparently Amazon has had some high level executives looking at NZ becoming one of their next forays. This will be interesting to watch as it may have quite signficant effect on many local retailers as it has done elsewhere around the World. Warehouse, Briscoes & HLG may all be affected. Definitely worth watching any developments on this front for holders of any retail stocks in NZ

Amazon entered Australia in 2017 and HLG has only experienced rapid growth there since then (as have most other retailers). Amazon isn't the threat it used to be as most well run retailers have well developed online fulfilment channels now.

[Waltzing]

As mentioned AZ has been in AUS for a while now and the same was said of Harvey Norman and the likes of JB HIFI.

HLG is a fashion retailer and AZ just isnt into fashion to the depths that these people eat sleep and breath it.

Companies like AZ is a tech based company and HLG and other can leverage AZ technologies to their advantage if they require it.

AZ business API can be used by anyone.

[winner69]

Cool HLG chart

From an investors point of view rather than a traders ----long term picture without the recent noise

[Cyclical]

Historically the SP has behaved like a cyclical...

Is there something you want to say to me? :cool:

Amazon...there is already a fashion retailer and HLG competitor by that name here, we don't need another one.

All this talk of Amazon...has anyone given much thought to the prospect of HLG being snapped up by a larger competitor? With their presence becoming more apparent in Oz, it must be something worth consideration. Better load up on a few more before it's too late.

[nztx]

Cool HLG chart

From an investors point of view rather than a traders ----long term picture without the recent noise


certainly a resilient performance - isn't it ?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Is there something you want to say to me? :cool:

Amazon...there is already a fashion retailer and HLG competitor by that name here, we don't need another one.

All this talk of Amazon...has anyone given much thought to the prospect of HLG being snapped up by a larger competitor? With their presence becoming more apparent in Oz, it must be something worth consideration. Better load up on a few more before it's too late.

Culture Kings, with 7 Australian stores - about to open an 8th in Auckland - $650 million valuation on $19 million in net profit. Some NZ listed companies are criminally undervalued.

[jimdog31]

I am a very happy camper in HLG too Beagle. But there have been reports in recent days of increased Amazon interest in NZ and I think it would be ill advised to ignore such a behemoth increasing their footprint in our little marketplace.

there was a major panic when amazon first launched in australia, that all retailers would see a retail apocalypse.

it was a storm in a teacup.

Be even less so here.

[winner69]

Culture Kings, with 7 Australian stores - about to open an 8th in Auckland - $650 million valuation on $19 million in net profit. Some NZ listed companies are criminally undervalued.

On same multiple GLB.ASX should be $30 instead of 5

And HLG about $15 instead of $7 odd

[pak]

On same multiple GLB.ASX should be $30 instead of 5

And HLG about $15 instead of $7 odd

Have you seen the valuation they have for HLG on SimplyWall street? Undervalued would be an understatement if you base it on their metrics.

[winner69]

Have you seen the valuation they have for HLG on SimplyWall street? Undervalued would be an understatement if you base it on their metrics.

OMG 80% undervalued

Do they have a valuation close to 40 bucks then?

[sampson]

Culture Kings, with 7 Australian stores - about to open an 8th in Auckland - $650 million valuation on $19 million in net profit. Some NZ listed companies are criminally undervalued.

Yeah that's true. There's also examples of retail stocks on the ASX that are on similarly low valuations as well though e.g. dusk group (DSK) and shavershop (SSG) are two I hold which have decent growth profile and dividend yield, though both benefitting from the covid sugar hit. So not just an NZX thing.

[Cyclical]

On same multiple GLB.ASX should be $30 instead of 5

And HLG about $15 instead of $7 odd


Have you seen the valuation they have for HLG on SimplyWall street? Undervalued would be an understatement if you base it on their metrics.


OMG 80% undervalued

Do they have a valuation close to 40 bucks then?

Hence my question earlier...could they be a potential takeover target by someone over the ditch, or beyond...?

[winner69]

Hence my question earlier...could they be a potential takeover target by someone over the ditch, or beyond...?

Always a possibility but would be the big shareholders be keen to let their money machine go.

[BlackPeter]

Hence my question earlier...could they be a potential takeover target by someone over the ditch, or beyond...?

Nonsense - do you really think anybody with enough money to take over HLG would trust or use a Simply Wall Street valuation? This "service" is well known for throwing out absolutely random numbers without any connection to reality. They publish only for entertainment and work probably hand in hand with the people preparing the horoscopes for the women's weekly magazines.

Apart from that - you realize that more than 20% of HLG belong to the Glasson's family ... you think they sell out? Really?

[winner69]

Shareclarity has a DCF value of $7.04 ....seems about right

[Balance]

Nonsense - do you really think anybody with enough money to take over HLG would trust or use a Simply Wall Street valuation? This "service" is well known for throwing out absolutely random numbers without any connection to reality. They publish only for entertainment and work probably hand in hand with the people preparing the horoscopes for the women's weekly magazines.

Apart from that - you realize that more than 20% of HLG belong to the Glasson's family ... you think they sell out? Really?

20% is not control - 76% is control. So yes, it is possible for a takeover but improbable as the company is well run and growing. Matter of the market progressively valuing the shares to its proper level.

[Cyclical]

Nonsense - do you really think anybody with enough money to take over HLG would trust or use a Simply Wall Street valuation? This "service" is well known for throwing out absolutely random numbers without any connection to reality. They publish only for entertainment and work probably hand in hand with the people preparing the horoscopes for the women's weekly magazines.

Apart from that - you realize that more than 20% of HLG belong to the Glasson's family ... you think they sell out? Really?
Bit of an overreaction there, BP...I'm not saying it's worth 40 bucks, all I'm suggesting is it's probably undervalued on the international stage, doing bloody well sinking it's teeth into Oz, and likely not going unnoticed by some of it's larger competitors. One way to deal with pesky competition...buy them out.