HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

I for one would be bitterly disappointed if HLG was taken over. So much heritage being N.Z.'s oldest listed company and such a brilliant track record with dividends and I never lose sleep wondering about the caliber of governance or management. Excellent track record with the growth of Glassons Australia and huge ongoing growth potential.

[BlackPeter]

20% is not control - 76% is control. So yes, it is possible for a takeover but improbable as the company is well run and growing. Matter of the market progressively valuing the shares to its proper level.

Mmh - we talked about "take over", not about "control".

I took that as a complete take over, but sure - somebody could make an offer for 100% of the shares (as they have to) and end up with 80 % - well, 76.5%, given that insiders hold in total 23.5% of HLG.

I leave it up to others to decide how likely this is that a majority sells out if the cornerstone shareholder does not sell.

But sure, some people say pigs can fly ... and - if you throw them down a cliff, they do :):

[BlackPeter]

Bit of an overreaction there, BP...I'm not saying it's worth 40 bucks, all I'm suggesting is it's probably undervalued on the international stage, doing bloody well sinking it's teeth into Oz, and likely not going unnoticed by some of it's larger competitors. One way to deal with pesky competition...buy them out.

Sorry - I just find it hard to to take anything coming from SimplyWallStreet serious ... you could as well rely on the position of the tea leaves in your morning cup of tea.

... but hey, I am sure - as any other broken clock - from time to time they might get it right.

[Waltzing]

Most european and US based competitors are busy right now.

Its not in the NZx50 yet and its not a take over target because the big retailers are busy and HLG balance sheet is small.

Its not a big cash cow delivering over 100 million of profit yet and on dividend basis its fairly valued at this time.

But with Aus spending up large for years to come and a damn the torpedo's from the treasury GDP in the big dry looks sets to hold up the retail market for a decade to come.

Now if NZ was to lower it tax rate to 20 percent for companies then the share price might start to take off.

[Habits]

I for one would be bitterly disappointed if HLG was taken over. So much heritage being N.Z.'s oldest listed company and such a brilliant track record with dividends and I never lose sleep wondering about the caliber of governance or management. Excellent track record with the growth of Glassons Australia and huge ongoing growth potential.

If it did would it be the end of an error

[Waltzing]

While Mr B is enjoying his saturday morning herald and musing over the coming budget while sipping his tea what does he think of page 7 of the interim report.

[Beagle]

While Mr B is enjoying his saturday morning herald and musing over the coming budget while sipping his tea what does he think of page 7 of the interim report.

A few musings, (in between looking at boat brochures)..bit rough making the old dog think too hard on a Saturday :)
1. Its clear there was a catch up on supplier payment terms as payments to suppliers represented nearly 64% of receipts from customers which is a much higher ratio than what is suggested by their gross profit percentage. This will represent some reversal of previous supplier terms accommodation during Covid.
2. There were two dividend payments in the 6 months, one of which was a catch up for their conservative position of holding back the April 2020 dividend during Covid.
3. Their cash position remains very strong and capex during the period under review was minimal.
4. They look extremely well positioned to roll out further physical store presence in Australia building upon their already very strong growth there in recent years.

[Balance]

Mmh - we talked about "take over", not about "control".

I took that as a complete take over, but sure - somebody could make an offer for 100% of the shares (as they have to) and end up with 80 % - well, 76.5%, given that insiders hold in total 23.5% of HLG.

I leave it up to others to decide how likely this is that a majority sells out if the cornerstone shareholder does not sell.

But sure, some people say pigs can fly ... and - if you throw them down a cliff, they do :):

Think of RBD and JLG - difference I will concede is that there were no entrenched cornerstone shareholders in the two companies but decisive control have been taken with full takeovers.

Pay a high enough price and you can always persuade enough to sell.

As mentioned however, I do not see the possibility of HLG being taken over.

[Habits]

Think of RBD and JLG - difference I will concede is that there were no entrenched cornerstone shareholders in the two companies but decisive control have been taken with full takeovers.

Pay a high enough price and you can always persuade enough to sell.

As mentioned however, I do not see the possibility of HLG being taken over.

Re JLG tony is holding 80.8% and I notice his CFO had 2m shares a few weeks ago but its now 2.5m or 2.75%. The extra 500k were not bought on market and the cash raise is 1:14 or 142000 shares. However it was, it puts them in a closer position to buy out the minorities.

[Balance]

Re JLG tony is holding 80.8% and I notice his CFO had 2m shares a few weeks ago but its now 2.5m or 2.75%. The extra 500k were not bought on market and the cash raise is 1:14 or 142000 shares. However it was, it puts them in a closer position to buy out the minorities.

Let me assure you that there’s a rock solid 10%+ minority in JLG who will not allow that scumbag Falkenstein to steal the company without paying a very very full price.

Which he may do (pay a very very full price) just to get rid of them.

[tim23]

Let me assure you that there’s a rock solid 10%+ minority in JLG who will not allow that scumbag Falkenstein to steal the company without paying a very very full price.

Which he may do (pay a very very full price) just to get rid of them.

Hasn't he tried that before?

[Balance]

Hasn't he tried that before?

Well documented in JLG thread.

[Habits]

Tony just has to get a few other significant holders including a Heather Falkenstein (a relation to tony ya think). Actually I think he prefers the profile that being public offers him

[Balance]

Tony just has to get a few other significant holders including a Heather Falkenstein (a relation to tony ya think). Actually I think he prefers the profile that being public offers him

You do not know Falkenstein as much as those of us who have dealt with him.

And I will add this which is pertinent to assessing HLG - I have sat in on a Tim Glasson presentation years ago and there is no doubt in my mind that he knows and understands the fashion industry inside out. That’s not to say that he is a great manager of course which is why he has a CEO to run the business.

[Waltzing]

Much Appreciate MR B's Comments on a saturday. :t_up: And looking forward to the full year report.

With AUS treasury spending up large on increases in resource exports it will be interesting to see what there +-GDP % will be in comparison to be to NZ.

Aus Deficits could be the factor that drives HLG performance.

Massive spending on the way in AUS the size of which NZ cant compete.

After NZX 50 inclusion look for this share to Dual List.

[Hello123]

This is better then pre discovery/HBO megre A T and T stock for dividend wow, thats a juicy dividend!

[winner69]

This guy always a bit gloomy but interesting nonetheless. Some Glassons competitors mentioned

Australian retail icons risk a Debenhams style ‘failure’

https://www.news.com.au/finance/business/retail/australian-retail-icons-risk-a-debenhams-style-failure/news-story/f8f7acaa944df014423ab1835747ad17

The Prof says complacency is a danger - . “We tend to think if a brand has been around for 150 years, it will always be around. I bet Debenhams thought that too.”

How long Hallensteins been around

[clearasmud]

Thanks Winner.Am quite heavily invested in MYER (but not as much as HLG which is my no 2)
The ceo of Myer hinted at resumption of Dividends this year. Let's hope the turnaround progresses.

[winner69]

Hope Melbourne don’t go into lockdown again and Glassons have to close a few stores

[Waltzing]

might then pull back and a buy...

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hope Melbourne don’t go into lockdown again and Glassons have to close a few stores

Wouldn’t be ideal, but Melbourne having 5 days in lockdown in February didn’t even warrant a mention in HLGs last earnings report (where they discussed current trading post-Feb 1st, and specifically mentioned the Auckland lockdowns during the same feb timeframe).

I’m not enjoying the relatively slow vaccine rollout in Australia & NZ.

[Waltzing]

Dr Bloomfield has indicated return to normal is more like return to level 2.5.

The longer border are closed it appears the longer the retail boom continues.

[winner69]

Wouldn’t be ideal, but Melbourne having 5 days in lockdown in February didn’t even warrant a mention in HLGs last earnings report (where they discussed current trading post-Feb 1st, and specifically mentioned the Auckland lockdowns during the same feb timeframe).

I’m not enjoying the relatively slow vaccine rollout in Australia & NZ.

Seems roll out in NZ just got slower ....Hipkins seems to enjoying talking things up though

[LaserEyeKiwi]

12547
Seems roll out in NZ just got slower ....Hipkins seems to enjoying talking things up though

https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/b88b8d4f-b7ac-4814-9a14-f4ff1dff2debhttps://www.sharetrader.co.nz/blob:https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/caffd7ba-e374-4978-a404-cf7bd1a173e0

[winner69]

Suppose HLG share price will hang around current levels until we get an update in August

[Balance]

Suppose HLG share price will hang around current levels until we get an update in August

Heading towards $10.00 imo with key drivers all positive - matter of time so I really couldn't care too much between now & August.

[Biscuit]

Heading towards $10.00 imo with key drivers all positive - matter of time so I really couldn't care too much between now & August.

The market always seems wary of HLG. Clothing retail is seen as a risky area perhaps, but HLG have navigated through there successfully for so many years. No debt, rising NZ dollar, careful management, a successful formula now gaining traction in Aus, shipping issues and covid likely to resolve in medium term, low PE. What's not to like about this one? But then, its just another clothing retailer.

[Biscuit]

... What's not to like about this one?

Only criticism I have is, since they don't take on debt, they should retain the dividend and try to grow a bit quicker.

[Beagle]

The market always seems wary of HLG. Clothing retail is seen as a risky area perhaps, but HLG have navigated through there successfully for so many years. No debt, rising NZ dollar, careful management, a successful formula now gaining traction in Aus, shipping issues and covid likely to resolve in medium term, low PE. What's not to like about this one? But then, its just another clothing retailer.

N.Z.'s oldest listed company which is quite something considering various challenges over many decades. My#1 investment position on the NZX.

[Waltzing]

"just another clothing retailer"


a custom fashion designer who had to leave Hong Kong recently with her stock broker husband after a 12 year
stink there said, "Cheap as chips, teenage market and they are nailing it."

[Biscuit]

....after a 12 year
stink there said, "Cheap as chips....

Hopefully, it was a twelve year stint? Or no wonder they sent her home.

[Waltzing]

She said it wasnt always the cleanest place they had lived...but yes it was supposed to be Stint...thank you...Share market in that time was very good.

They left when many Australian did when the virus hit and brokers moved back to Sydney.

[Beagle]

HLG or WHS to be included in the NZX50 with the June rebalance ? (to be announced on 11 June).

[Greekwatchdog]

Not according to this but who knows. Latest For Bar Review..

We pick that there will be no changes for the upcoming S&P/NZX June 2021 quarterly index review (headline indices).Official outcomes of the review will be announced close of market Friday, 11 June 2021, with an effective date, close of
market Friday, 18 June 2021.
Figure 1. June 2021 Review: The Forsyth Barr Pick
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no changes n/a
S&P/NZX 20 no changes n/a
S&P/NZX 50 no changes n/a
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no changes n/a
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis
The current status
The recent sell down of 31.6m WHS shares by Foodstuffs has boosted the WHS ranking (six-month average market cap) and by our
calculations will rank as the highest non-member post the upcoming June 2021 index review.
Figure 2 outlines the current rankings for inclusion/exclusion for the benchmark S&P/NZX 50 indices. At this stage, we see no obvious
near term changes ahead. The six-month average market cap automatic entry level to the benchmark index is currently above $430m
with the exit level below $283m.
Figure 2. Current Rankings for S&P/NZX 50 Index Inclusion/Exclusion
Ranking Code Current status 6-mth average price 6-mth average market cap
42 SKO S&P/NZX 50 Member $6.04
43 FSF S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.56
44 (entry level) VGL S&P/NZX 50 Member $1.88 $429.63m
45 SAN S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.76 $391.98m
46 RBD S&P/NZX 50 Member $12.47
47 SML S&P/NZX 50 Member $4.20 $376.38m
48 WHS* $3.20 $356.28m
49 TLT $6.63 $349.97m
50 HLG $7.19 $343.31m
51 ERD $4.84 $332.77m
52 NPH S&P/NZX 50 Member $3.44
53 THL S&P/NZX 50 Member $2.47 $299.91m
54 SKT S&P/NZX 50 Member $0.17 $298.05m
55 MFB** $1.56 $283.78m
56 (exit level) BGP $5.42 $277.50m
57 TRA $3.30 $214.67m
58 CVT $3.24 $174.44m

[winner69]

Retail sales going well in Oz

Westpac on April sales ..... retail sales are still holding relatively at a relatively high level – up 25%yr compared to last year's extreme lows during the nationwide lockdown but also 11% above the pre-COVID levels at the start of last year.

And

Clothing +1.2% seasonally adjusted ...remember that’s +1.2% up on March

All good for HLG

[see weed]

HLG or WHS to be included in the NZX50 with the June rebalance ? (to be announced on 11 June).
Where do you think sp will go when it is included into the NZX50, back up to $7.80s maybe low $8s?

[Beagle]

Where do you think sp will go when it is included into the NZX50, back up to $7.80s maybe low $8s?

Hard to know for sure but what you suggest sounds about right. Earnings growth will be what propels this higher in due course.

[bull....]

Where do you think sp will go when it is included into the NZX50, back up to $7.80s maybe low $8s?

whs will be in the nz50 before hlg

[Ferg]

I have thought for some time that talk of inclusion in the NZX50 was premature. GWD's great post above shows the entry point is 44 and not 50. For HLG to get from number 50 to number 44 requires one or more things to happen, assuming all other external factors remain the same:



a sustained lift in the HLG share price of around 26% i.e. >$9
a sustained 8%+ fall in the prices of SKT and/or THL

or a new strategic / cornerstone shareholder appears for either or both of these companies


any other member(s) of the NZX50 automatically excluded due to delisting or being taken over etc.
a total exit of the Glassons family holdings from HLG into the hands of retail and institutions (i.e. their holding goes to 0% - would existing shareholders want this?)
a float of an additional ~12m shares into the market by HLG, where the Glasson family do not participate
a stock split would only assist chances of inclusion if the combined market value impact was +$86m excluding any impacts on the Glasson family holdings
possibly others


Keep in mind that if there is a sustained lift in the share price, would this occur in isolation such that the target entry value remains unchanged? And would other potential suitors of the NZX50 also remain unchanged? The recent change in WHS shareholding has pushed them up the queue. I'm surprised Delegats is not hovering around the entry point, unless I have missed a portion of their strategic shareholders?

[winner69]

Thirteen Glassons stores closed in Melbourne for a week or so

Online will save the day

No worries

https://www.nzx.com/announcements/373476

[see weed]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade.:t_down: My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages:confused::t_down: ASB Securities:t_down::t_down:

[Balance]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade.:t_down: My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages:confused::t_down: ASB Securities:t_down::t_down:

Nothing to do with ASB or any stockbroking firm - blame it on NZX rules & if you want, Sharesies type trading & investment.

Used to be that a stockbroker can aggregate a whole heap of orders and execute on market, then distribute the large order to the smaller orders. Not any more with NZX rules.

All in the name of transparency and compliance - what a load of garbage.

No transparency & compliance when it comes to IPOs like MFB or CBL.

[RupertBear]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade.:t_down: My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages:confused::t_down: ASB Securities:t_down::t_down:

Sold a small number of ATM recently, got 57 emails of trades, many for 1 share :eek2:

[Old mate]

Hehe one! Classic.

[see weed]

Sold a small number of ATM recently, got 57 emails of trades, many for 1 share :eek2:
It's annoying aye. Not selling any more, too good a div and yld.

[sb9]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade.:t_down: My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages:confused::t_down: ASB Securities:t_down::t_down:

Yep, problem with ASB Sec platform as it sends out trade notification for each transaction, whereas Direct Broking sends out just one contract note for full quantity once the sale/buy order is completed.

[Rawz]

Has anyone got any data on the DPS for the last 5 or 7 years or longer?

I am thinking of holding this forever and add to the position on the dips. I'm assuming over the next 30 years they will stuff up a few seasons and buy wrong, thus turning in a bad earnings result as they dump the clothes that did not sell. If one was to keep adding during these events and trust that in the long run earnings will continue to track upwards then its a great share to hold with the dividends as the fallback.

[iceman]

Has anyone got any data on the DPS for the last 5 or 7 years or longer?

I am thinking of holding this forever and add to the position on the dips. I'm assuming over the next 30 years they will stuff up a few seasons and buy wrong, thus turning in a bad earnings result as they dump the clothes that did not sell. If one was to keep adding during these events and trust that in the long run earnings will continue to track upwards then its a great share to hold with the dividends as the fallback.

Try this http://www.dividendyield.co.nz/viewdetails.php?loc=HLG

[Ferg]

Try here:
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLG.NZ/history?p=HLG.NZ
Select "dividends only" and whatever time period you want.

Edit: I see iceman answered already. My link will give the half and full year splits if you need them.

[winner69]

Stats NZ Electroonic Card Spend for May data

apparel UP 5.2 percent on April (seasonally adjusted)

Retail in NZ on fire

That's pretty cool

[Rawz]

Try here:
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/quote/HLG.NZ/history?p=HLG.NZ
Select "dividends only" and whatever time period you want.

Edit: I see iceman answered already. My link will give the half and full year splits if you need them.

Thanks, looks like yahoo finance and dividend yield website are slightly different in the earlier years. Having cross-checked a couple of historical annual reports it seems dividend yield website is more accurate.

DPS creep is less than I thought it would be as well.

[Waltzing]

SP holding up well....doesnt need 50 inclusion.

Just MR B's BBB+ rating.

[Beagle]

Stats NZ Electroonic Card Spend for May data

apparel UP 5.2 percent on April (seasonally adjusted)

Retail in NZ on fire

That's pretty cool

Thanks for sharing that which is really encouraging. My #1 investment position. Very happy holder.

[nztx]

Thanks for sharing that which is really encouraging. My #1 investment position. Very happy holder.


Ditto .. similar #1 position here too

[Ferg]

Thanks, looks like yahoo finance and dividend yield website are slightly different in the earlier years. Having cross-checked a couple of historical annual reports it seems dividend yield website is more accurate.
Dammit and thanks for checking. Dammit because I have been downloading mass amounts of data from Yahoo for some research and I will now have to get the dividend data elsewhere. Thanks because this will ensure better numbers.
Cheers

[Snow Leopard]

Dammit and thanks for checking. Dammit because I have been downloading mass amounts of data from Yahoo for some research and I will now have to get the dividend data elsewhere. Thanks because this will ensure better numbers.
Cheers

How far back you do you need to go?
I believe I have all the NZX dividends from 12-Oct-2009 onwards.

[Ferg]

How far back you do you need to go?
I believe I have all the NZX dividends from 12-Oct-2009 onwards.
That will be more than enough thanks. I will PM you. I am looking at the financial impact of tax gains versus trading losses when buying cum dividend and selling ex dividend. I have the math all figured out but I need to confirm the actual drop in share price relative to the dividend received. I was only looking at 5 years initially but I could extend it given you have the dividend data.

This may end up bigger than Ben Hur.....
:scared:

[Teatree]

Visited Broadway mall in Sydney today Glassons was humming loads of young ladies doing their thing could stand and watch for too long for fear of being labelled a dirty old man

[winner69]

Fellow rag trader and corporate welfare beneficiary (Premier Investments) set to double profits this year.

If HLG achieved this their profit would be over $50m

How Premier did it similar to how HLG are doing things and seemed to have done very well post lockdowns.

https://www.smh.com.au/business/companies/solomon-lew-s-premier-investments-set-to-nearly-double-full-year-profits-20210611-p5805d.html

[Beagle]

Has anyone got any data on the DPS for the last 5 or 7 years or longer?

I am thinking of holding this forever and add to the position on the dips. I'm assuming over the next 30 years they will stuff up a few seasons and buy wrong, thus turning in a bad earnings result as they dump the clothes that did not sell. If one was to keep adding during these events and trust that in the long run earnings will continue to track upwards then its a great share to hold with the dividends as the fallback.


That will be more than enough thanks. I will PM you. I am looking at the financial impact of tax gains versus trading losses when buying cum dividend and selling ex dividend. I have the math all figured out but I need to confirm the actual drop in share price relative to the dividend received. I was only looking at 5 years initially but I could extend it given you have the dividend data.

This may end up bigger than Ben Hur.....
:scared:

I think there's a few players out there already milking the cum / ex dividend thing so I am not sure any strategy trying to work the effect of that would be especially effective. On the other hand I think our friend above is definitely barking up the right tree.

[Greekwatchdog]

Latest from For Bar on Index Positions below.


Jostling for Position


S&P DJI have confirmed that no constituent changes will be made to the benchmark indices at the June 2021 quarterly
index review. There are a number of changes to index shares and Float Adjustment Weighting Factors (AWF). Changes are
effective close of market, Friday, 18 June 2021.
No constituent changes
As expected, the S&P/NZX index review for June 2021 contained no constituent changes for the benchmark indices. We do not
foresee any constituent changes in the near to medium term.
The Warehouse (WHS) has jumped up the ranks in our inclusion/exclusion index model, following the sell down of 31.6m shares by
Foodstuffs. However, at a current six month average free float market cap of $366m, it still remains below the automatic inclusion
level of >$440m. Assuming liquidity conditions are met, when we roll forward prices using a five-day average we see the following
order of eligibility for non index members: ERD ($400m), WHS ($374m) & HLG ($352m) and an automatic inclusion level of >$429m.
Under this scenario, THL ($311m), NPH ($306m) & SKT ($295m) are the lowest ranked index members for the benchmark 50 indices,
however, they remain safe, sitting above the automatic exclusion level of $279m. Note, we have assumed the takeover of TLT is
completed under this scenario.
Figure 1. June 2021 Review: Confirmed changes
Index Enter Exit Expected Weight (rank)
S&P/NZX 10 no changes
S&P/NZX 20 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 no changes
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio no changes
Source: Forsyth Barr analysis, S&P DJI
Re-weighting changes
As with each quarterly review, index shares, Investible Weighting Factors (IWFs) and AWFs are also updated. The companies with the
largest re-weightings are presented in Figure 2.
Figure 2. June 2021 Review: Major re-weighting changes expected
Index Current Weight Expected Weight Total Change
S&P/NZX50 Index
OCA 0.71% 0.80% +0.09%
S&P/NZX 50 Portfolio Index
ATM 3.12% 4.45% +1.33%
RYM 4.13% 5.05% +0.93%
AIA 5.18% 4.88% -0.30%
IFT 5.18% 4.86% -0.32%
MFT 5.36% 4.86% -0.50%
FBU 5.59% 4.89% -0.70%
CEN 5.83% 5.10% -0.73%

[Jantar]

I don't believe anyone has been betting on HLG moving onto the index. There has been no real movement in price for around 2 months, and I have never seen the bolinger bands so close together.

[Habits]

I put in an order to sell 2000 HLG. So far 820 have sold and 1180 still waiting to sell. Of the sold ones gone through so far, there was one lot of 371 shares, one lot of 269 shares, 3 lots of 27 shares, 2 lots of 14 shares, 1 lot of 11, 3 lots of 7, 1 lot of 6, 2 lots of 4, 3 lots of 3 shares, 4 lots of 2 shares and 6 lots of 1 shares. So far that is 27 lines on my bank statement and still 1180 to trade.:t_down: My end of month statements are 15 to 20 pages:confused::t_down: ASB Securities:t_down::t_down:

I dont buy or sell very much. But when I do my email inbox is chocka full of trade notifications from ASB securities. Surely they must realise how dumb this is when they clog up someones inbox. Is there any way to stop it?

[Beagle]

I don't believe anyone has been betting on HLG moving onto the index. There has been no real movement in price for around 2 months, and I have never seen the bolinger bands so close together.

I am holding long term so this is only of academic interest but something has to give sooner or later. Possibly worth noting that if they're making about $37m after tax this year that's 62 cps in earnings so every month that ticks by the shares are intrinsically worth about 5 cents per share more. FY21 Forward PE at $7.37 on 62 cps is only 11.9 and I think that's outstanding value given their strong track record of growth with Glassons in Australia. I think they can do about 55 cps in fully imputed dividends for FY22 so that's 55 / 0.72 = 76.4 cps gross so that gives us a prospective gross yield for FY22 of 76.4 / 737 = 10.4%

[Beagle]

Double trouble again lol

[Panda-NZ-]

IF NZD is expected the increase as the banks seem to forecast then HLG is in a good place.


Lol at this snippet from ASB:


Strengthening labour market conditions will support stronger income growth and household spending appetites. The risk is stronger incomes are spent on holidays offshore as borders gradually open, rather than in NZ.

https://www.asb.co.nz/content/dam/asb/documents/reports/quarterly-economic-forecasts/asb-forecast-update-june21.pdf

can't people have a VR experience instead? our economic gains spent on more holidays.

[BlackPeter]

I dont buy or sell very much. But when I do my email inbox is chocka full of trade notifications from ASB securities. Surely they must realise how dumb this is when they clog up someones inbox. Is there any way to stop it?

Easy - change over to Direct Broking. They send you only one contract per order and day, no matter how many partial sales or buys they had to do to complete your order

[winner69]

I am holding long term so this is only of academic interest but something has to give sooner or later. Possibly worth noting that if they're making about $37m after tax this year that's 62 cps in earnings so every month that ticks by the shares are intrinsically worth about 5 cents per share more. FY21 Forward PE at $7.37 on 62 cps is only 11.9 and I think that's outstanding value given their strong track record of growth with Glassons in Australia. I think they can do about 55 cps in fully imputed dividends for FY22 so that's 55 / 0.72 = 76.4 cps gross so that gives us a prospective gross yield for FY22 of 76.4 / 737 = 10.4%

Jeez ...only $37m profit this year

Should be more shouldn’t it now they’ve fixed their margin problem and apparently selling heaps more than expected.

[Waltzing]

WELL MR B is an accountant. It perfectly understandable for MR B to be conservative in base calculations as it set the floor and what a fabulous floor it is when your nose is so close to the ground sniffing out bowls full of dividends.

[winner69]

WELL MR B is an accountant. It perfectly understandable for MR B to be conservative in base calculations as it set the floor and what a fabulous floor it is when your nose is so close to the ground sniffing out bowls full of dividends.

He probably learnt to be super conservative about HLG after his disappointment with their H1 result ...he (and me) got that a bit wrong....we were ‘too bullish ‘ and they disappointed

[Balance]

He probably learnt to be super conservative about HLG after his disappointment with their H1 result ...he (and me) got that a bit wrong....we were ‘too bullish ‘ and they disappointed

But the market liked the result, especially the outstanding dividend.

Just shows how important it is to gauge market expectations rather than our expectations as we on ST are but minnows (with some marginal but hardly price setting influence) in the overall scheme of things when it comes to the market.

[winner69]

Shareprice post Feb guidance was 777 ...even allowing the 23 cent dividend we don’t seem much better off

Maybe market not expecting much for full year

Come early August we should know

[Beagle]

WELL MR B is an accountant. It perfectly understandable for MR B to be conservative in base calculations as it set the floor and what a fabulous floor it is when your nose is so close to the ground sniffing out bowls full of dividends.

Unfortunately its now clear that the greedy shipping companies with their usurious shipping rates are going to be a problem for some time.
On the other side of the ledger I believe there's widespread understanding that shipping costs have radically changed and consumers are going to have to accept that retail prices reflect that.
One little segment on apparel on CNBC last evening blew my mind a bit, don't know if you saw it ? Apparently, according to a survey done the average American has put on 29 pounds of weight since Covid started, (lockdowns and eating more comfort food) so heaps of people are going to need an entire new wardrobe !

Just checking my own rotundness and thankfully its not 29 pounds lol but some weight has certainly gone on. Maybe Kiwi's and Australian's will need parts of their wardrobe updated too ?
Got to be good for HLG and WHS I would think.

[Balance]

Shareprice post Feb guidance was 577 ...even allowing the 23 cent dividend we don’t seem much better off

Maybe market not expecting much for full year

Come early August we should know

You mean $7.77?

I would have thought that you would have lighten up a few then, given the results were below your expectation?

Been down as low as $7.10 this year so would have been a nice 67c trade for you.

YTD, HLG is up 10.8% or 14.2% (with 23c dividend) vs market down 3.2%.

I am a happy holder.

[BlackPeter]

Unfortunately its now clear that the greedy shipping companies with their usurious shipping rates are going to be a problem for some time.


Must be the time to buy shipping companies? I love MFT and FRE does not too bad either ...



One little segment on apparel on CNBC last evening blew my mind a bit, don't know if you saw it ? Apparently, according to a survey done the average American has put on 29 pounds of weight since Covid started, (lockdowns and eating more comfort food) so heaps of people are going to need an entire new wardrobe !


... Wow - time to buy into healthcare and funeral providers? Not sure people can fix everything with a new wardrobe. Patients hospital covers are low margin - and the last suit does not even need to fit - undertakers can easily recycle an old suit and just slice the back to size.

[Beagle]

I must admit I find it really hard to believe it really is 29 pounds extra weight, that's about 13 kg's extra on average per person. Surely not ????

[peat]

and the last suit does not even need to fit - undertakers can easily recycle an old suit and just slice the back to size.

they dont call him Black Peter for nothing.

[BlackPeter]

they dont call him Black Peter for nothing.

... just being practical and pragmatic :p:

[Beagle]

Most people I know (including Mrs Beagle) have put on a few extra kilo's since Covid began. Eating more comfort food is a natural reaction to extra stress and being locked up at home close to the pantry and fridge is definitely not a good recipe for healthy weight management lol Covid's been much tougher in other parts of the world so maybe weight gain is much worse overseas ?

Anyway...whatever the case may be, last night's little insight about people needing new clothes is something that I think is of value.

Apparel has not been a strong sector until quite recently, (thanks for last month's apparel statistics Winner), but maybe it will be considerably stronger going forward ?

[Cyclical]

I must admit I find it really hard to believe it really is 29 pounds extra weight, that's about 13 kg's extra on average per person. Surely not ????

Yeah, that figure seems crazy. I can't think of many people I know that have gained significantly in the last year or so, maybe a few kilos here, a few there. To get anywhere near that average 13KG increase, some peeps must have made massive gains. Only in America perhaps?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Someone forwarded me coverage on Levi’s CEO talking about current excellent trading conditions - short summary: people got fat and are buying lots of new jeans to fit their new waistlines.

[Balance]

Was at Sylvia Park shopping mall yesterday and rather surprised to see a new small Glassons store as well as the large one on the other end of the mall.

Asked the shop attendant and she said it’s a pop up store to sell seasonal clothings overflow. Things must be going well for Glassons to expand its offering across into another store in the same complex.

[Beagle]

Was at Sylvia Park shopping mall yesterday and rather surprised to see a new small Glassons store as well as the large one on the other end of the mall.

Asked the shop attendant and she said it’s a pop up store to sell seasonal clothings overflow. Things must be going well for Glassons to expand its offering across into another store in the same complex.

Such a massively long mall, I get dog tired just walking from one end to the other, let alone back again lol

[winner69]

With retail sales over all on a roll and things looking pretty bright in the sector you would expect HLG to do $160m sales in H2 (taking full year sales to just over $340m

allow for slightly improved margins in H2 (fixed the problems etc, keeping expenses under control and with a bit of corporate welfare ful year NPAT should come in $39m to $40m --- lets say $40m

Pretty good effort after last years $28m

Share price needs to surge sometime soon I reckon - announcement only about 2 months away

[Balance]

Such a massively long mall, I get dog tired just walking from one end to the other, let alone back again lol

A designer at Westfield commented that it’s shaped like a banana and is not the ideal shape for a mall. But Sylvia Park mall had land to ‘burn’ back in its formation days so KPG did not build upwards.

[Waltzing]

Add in some freight cost increases.

[Beagle]

With retail sales over all on a roll and things looking pretty bright in the sector you would expect HLG to do $160m sales in H2 (taking full year sales to just over $340m

allow for slightly improved margins in H2 (fixed the problems etc, keeping expenses under control and with a bit of corporate welfare ful year NPAT should come in $39m to $40m --- lets say $40m

Pretty good effort after last years $28m

Share price needs to surge sometime soon I reckon - announcement only about 2 months away

Hope you're right mate. I'm still licking my wounds https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=Jdo1S12u&id=7B75FB16761F2715A317BA64E56431F34F434326&thid=OIP.Jdo1S12uW3UeXOFUiEVHMgHaFg&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR25 da354b5dae5b751e5ce15488454732%3frik%3dJkNDT%252fM xZOVkug%26riu%3dhttp%253a%252f%252fwww.wormsandger msblog.com%252ffiles%252f2010%252f11%252fDog-Lick1.jpg%26ehk%3dLM3vtEuzhhXO%252bnvMcq079mUdO20A uqJcA4y50gdXAp0%253d%26risl%3d%26pid%3dImgRaw&exph=299&expw=402&q=beagle+licking+wounds&simid=608047651308653501&ck=EB81F73ED8D2B4C41DB15723F568745D&selectedIndex=4&qpvt=beagle+licking+wounds&FORM=IRPRST&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0
from being too optimistic with the first half profit.

[winner69]

Add in some freight cost increases.

...agile smart operators recover these ......seeing HLG admitted they were a bit slow off the mark in H2 expect this to be fixed in H2

No worries

[LaserEyeKiwi]

A designer at Westfield commented that it’s shaped like a banana and is not the ideal shape for a mall. But Sylvia Park mall had land to ‘burn’ back in its formation days so KPG did not build upwards.

Well they remedied that recently (in case you weren’t aware), with the new 2nd level of shopping (all of which is fully leased), and also by adding new office towers to the complex (with one more already consented, and plans for build to rent residential towers as well).

surprising Glassons has added the 2nd pop-up store, didn’t see that last week so must be a very recent addition.

[Waltzing]

Surely an under valued stock. Another year of basically very little travel for most and nothing to do but shop and eat out and go to the beach....These stocks are priced for less than zero growth and inflation to flatten spending in Zealandia.

Nuts..as the US General said.

[Beagle]

Surely an under valued stock. Another year of basically very little travel for most and nothing to do but shop and eat out and go to the beach....These stocks are priced for less than zero growth and inflation to flatten spending in Zealandia.

Nuts..as the US General said.

The metrics are really compelling and they have a stellar track record of paying sizeable dividends going back over many many years. Even paid solid dividends during the GFC and Covid.
N.Z.'s oldest listed company. When it comes to having credibility regarding a companies track record "HLG is the Gold Standard"

[Toasty]

Was at Sylvia Park shopping mall yesterday and rather surprised to see a new small Glassons store as well as the large one on the other end of the mall.

Asked the shop attendant and she said it’s a pop up store to sell seasonal clothings overflow. Things must be going well for Glassons to expand its offering across into another store in the same complex.

Its strangely exciting owning the mall (KPG) and the clothing retailer (HLG) within the mall.

[winner69]

NZD:USD close to multi month low

Hope doesn’t impact Hlg margin that much

[Waltzing]

well those heady days of parity are long gone but SP today hasnt moved at all unlike other sectors in the market and pre market futures showing farther down side.

[nztx]

HLG's SP seems remarkably resilient ..

I reckon one of friendly dogs on the forum have let the cat out of the bag big time ;)

[see weed]

HLG's SP seems remarkably resilient ..

I reckon one of friendly dogs on the forum have let the cat out of the bag big time ;)
I have shares with hlg and cen. You get more bang for your buck with hlg at the moment. The last two divs from cen=37c. And the last two divs from hlg=47c. You pay over $8 for cen and a bit over 7.39 for hlg. But cen is a better trading stock. more liquidity. I am reluctant to sell any more hlg at this time because of the magnificent yld.

[winner69]

Consumer confidence on the rise in Nz …all looking good for retailers for rest of year

HLG might even double it’s profit (like others have done)

You’d want to be holding when they announce that

[winner69]

Wonder how much disruption from covid lock downs in OZ

[winner69]

Kathmandu badly(?) affected by Oz lockdowns

http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/KMD/374716/349152.pdf

Just as well lockdowns don't seem to affect Glassons that much

[Beagle]

I'm expecting the Australian Govt will kick in with their very generous wage subsidy support program again. Its a decent scheme and although Australian trading volume is only approx half of N.Z. trading volume the Covid wage subsidy paid in Australia was very close to the same amount the N.Z. Govt paid HLG last year. In other words the Covid subsidies there are worth approx twice the run rate they are here and the Australian Govt will be paying subsidies to support our final FY21 dividend due in December.

[winner69]

I'm expecting the Australian Govt will kick in with their very generous wage subsidy support program again. Its a decent scheme and although Australian trading volume is only approx half of N.Z. trading volume the Covid wage subsidy paid in Australia was very close to the same amount the N.Z. Govt paid HLG last year. In other words the Covid subsidies there are worth approx twice the run rate they are here and the Australian Govt will be paying subsidies to support our final FY21 dividend due in December.

Shouldn’t wish for more lockdowns but HLG seem more profitable during lockdowns than normal times (esp in Oz)

[BlackPeter]

Just noticed this line in John Ryders latest newsletter:


After more than a year of on and off again lockdowns, the head of Levi Strauss said that a quarter of their customers no longer fitted into their jeans.

If fits to some earlier discussions and might well be good for HLG and some other clothing retailers (like WHS, KMD).

I started as well to buy now trousers a size smaller after the lockdowns ... I assume that's what Levi Strauss was referring to :):

[Habits]

Just noticed this line in John Ryders latest newsletter:



If fits to some earlier discussions and might well be good for HLG and some other clothing retailers (like WHS, KMD).

I started as well to buy now trousers a size smaller after the lockdowns ... I assume that's what Levi Strauss was referring to :):

I took it as overeating and under-active therefore causing a slight swelling to the legs and waist... perhaps some gone skinny because they lost their job/income and could not afford to eat. Come now BP I know that you are not in the second group

[Beagle]

Just noticed this line in John Ryders latest newsletter:



If fits to some earlier discussions and might well be good for HLG and some other clothing retailers (like WHS, KMD).

I started as well to buy now trousers a size smaller after the lockdowns ... I assume that's what Levi Strauss was referring to :):

WHS have a range of clothing for the average solidly build Kiwi person whereas HLG seem to think their target market all has a health body mass index....Go figure ?
HLG simply do not cater for big dog's. Ask me how I know...
I would think WHS will benefit the most.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I don’t think government subsidies to businesses will re-eventuate in Australia this time unless things spiral out of control (the delayed NSW lockdown looks like it is finally working). The Morrison government has completely abdicated control to the states, and they don’t seem interested in wage subsidies to businesses - the Sydney “lockdown” still allows retail shops to be open and for people to work and visit retail shops, as crazy as that seems.

Instead they are offering “relief payments” to individuals who are unable to work, and who have exhausted all other income sources including leave entitlements.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/relief-payments-flow-to-locked-down-sydney-but-many-confused-over-eligibility-20210701-p585xh.html

So I guess Glassons stores will still be paying their full time employees as normal (probably have some stores open with skeleton crew, and any casual/part time staff without guaranteed hours will probably not be getting paid (except with holiday pay) and applying for the relief payments.

[BlackPeter]

the usual duplicate ...

[BlackPeter]

I took it as overeating and under-active therefore causing a slight swelling to the legs and waist... perhaps some gone skinny because they lost their job/income and could not afford to eat. Come now BP I know that you are not in the second group

Well, maybe there was a third group using the additional free time they won due to less commuting for doing more exercise :): But admittedly - I used to work from home already before the lockdowns, but I did increase my exercise regime and reduced my food intake. Happy to report - it does work.

However - just to bring this discussion back to HLG. Sadly - I didn't buy my new jeans with HLG. They don't sell the size I need (my legs are apparently shorter than the NZ standard HLG caters for). A mail order with Just Jeans was all I needed, though. Something HLG could learn from ....

[Snoopy]

WHS have a range of clothing for the average solidly build Kiwi person whereas HLG seem to think their target market all has a health body mass index....Go figure ?
HLG simply do not cater for big dog's. Ask me how I know...
I would think WHS will benefit the most.


This reminds me of an old toilet cubicle poem, that I can slightly adapt for publishing here:

"This jean's rack is no bloody good at all"
"All the legs are too long, and the seats are too small."
To which I must add the obvious retort
"My arse is too big and my legs are too short!"

SNOOPY

[winner69]

Retail stats ex OZ (ABS) for May

the seasonally adjusted : Clothing retailing fell 0.4%

Still holding up - good stuff

[winner69]

Clothing sector sales in Australia now ahead of pre-covid levels

Took a while to pick up (relative to rest of other sectors) but roaring ahead now

Glassons must be creaming it - strong market buoyed by share gains

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NSW outbreak is turning into a F@cking Sh!tshow - I’m surprised HLG bounced today.

[see weed]

NSW outbreak is turning into a F@cking Sh!tshow - I’m surprised HLG bounced today.
What do they call it? A window dressing bounce. Less than 1000 shares traded on close.

[see weed]

NSW outbreak is turning into a F@cking Sh!tshow - I’m surprised HLG bounced today.
What do they call it? A window dressing bounce. Less than 1000 shares traded on close.

[clearasmud]

What do they call it? A window dressing bounce. Less than 1000 shares traded on close.

I'm overweight in this stock. (9%).
Any better ideas?

[nztx]

I'm overweight in this stock. (9%).
Any better ideas?


Yep .. consider more overweight while the Aussies aren't looking too closely .. ;)


Never regretted it here .. (North of 18%)


A fairly small issued CAP - just shy of 60 mil for a Company probably the best in their field with
lengthy track record of performance should say it all .. no real fall off in SP either so far

[Beagle]

The metrics are really compelling and they have a stellar track record of paying sizeable dividends going back over many many years. Even paid solid dividends during the GFC and Covid.
N.Z.'s oldest listed company. When it comes to having credibility regarding a companies track record "HLG is the Gold Standard"

There are always challenges in business and HLG have always delivered.

[clearasmud]

I like those words:"gold standard"..

[winner69]

There are always challenges in business and HLG have always delivered.

And they have that mountain of cash so even if things get a bit tough for a few months they 'strong balance sheet' will keep decent dividends flowing

[Ferg]

Never regretted it here .. (North of 18%).....[snip]...... .. no real fall off in SP either so far
Nice. I was over 25% at one stage but have now got this down to 14%. I'm not unhappy with that and the SP tracking sideways for a bit is not a bad thing. It's a fantastic yield versus bank deposits.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-sydney-records-77-new-cases-1-death-nsw-premier-expects-triple-digits-tomorrow/MAKA5ROAZOOOUP5MUHDNPGPAKY/

Divisions have emerged in recent days in the NSW Government amid reports there was opposition to extending the lockdown, including from Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, who is working on a major rescue and support package for businesses and workers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-sydney-records-77-new-cases-1-death-nsw-premier-expects-triple-digits-tomorrow/MAKA5ROAZOOOUP5MUHDNPGPAKY/

Divisions have emerged in recent days in the NSW Government amid reports there was opposition to extending the lockdown, including from Treasurer Dominic Perrottet, who is working on a major rescue and support package for businesses and workers.

77 cases today - there is no way this lockdown isn’t extended until well into August. Premier saying Federal national government will need to come to the party with another job keeper program or similar.

[winner69]

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx used a word not allowed on this thread

[Gecko]

Extended lockdown is not necessarily a negative due to online shopping. I am reliably told the Glassons website is a good online shopping experience so now they have a captive lockdown audience.

I am aware the app used on a smartphone can be slow to load and buggy. Some recent reviews of the android version of the app https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.glassons.customer.app are not good. Let's hope the IT team get on top of this as a matter of priority so the orders from lockdown can start rolling in. :t_up:Kids are so sophisticated these days they will bounce to a competitors app if it has better usability.

[see weed]

I'm overweight in this stock. (9%).
Any better ideas?
Nothing wrong being overweight in a good stock. I was 50% on 7/4/21 for the div but am now at 37%. Last year was 100% with a2 for a very short time, that was quite hair raising, but am now about 10%:).

[iceman]

77 cases today - there is no way this lockdown isn’t extended until well into August. Premier saying Federal national government will need to come to the party with another job keeper program or similar.

Having had more cases than that on my ship, myself included, I say "what a f.....g BS" What about stopping the scaremongering about this flu and get on with life !

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Extended lockdown is not necessarily a negative due to online shopping. I am reliably told the Glassons website is a good online shopping experience so now they have a captive lockdown audience.

I am aware the app used on a smartphone can be slow to load and buggy. Some recent reviews of the android version of the app https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.glassons.customer.app are not good. Let's hope the IT team get on top of this as a matter of priority so the orders from lockdown can start rolling in. :t_up:Kids are so sophisticated these days they will bounce to a competitors app if it has better usability.

majority of consumer spending occurs on iOS (iPhone) and Android is hideous to develop for (with the thousands of different hardware/software variations). Probably better to push product in Android through the website via social media app campaigns on Instagram/FB etc.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Having had more cases than that on my ship, myself included, I say "what a f.....g BS" What about stopping the scaremongering about this flu and get on with life !

probably because the last 18 months have conclusively proven that the best result from both an economic AND human health perspective is the elimination strategy via lockdowns & contact tracing. It will remain that way until the vaccination program is near complete and lockdowns are no longer necessary (probably year end for NZ & Australia).

New Zealand & Australia are of course the prime examples of this with outstanding economic growth and extremely low covid death rate.

I’m sorry you got infected, but happy to hear you obviously recovered (hopefully without any long term health impact). Unfortunately for between 1-2% of other identified infected people they didn’t recover and subsequently died, and a further large fraction have life long health issues to deal with. A 1% death rate in an unvaccinated population is enough to stick with lockdowns for another 6 months.

I have have friends in Fiji currently, and it is a prime example of how everything goes when you choose not to lockdown - their health system has completely collapsed meaning people are dying from treatable non-covid health events because they literally have no access to hospitals now. Their economy has also completely imploded.

[Gecko]

majority of consumer spending occurs on iOS (iPhone) and Android is hideous to develop for (with the thousands of different hardware/software variations). Probably better to push product in Android through the website via social media app campaigns on Instagram/FB etc.

Thanks for the info Laser although it seems they have a bit of work to do on the iOS app too: https://apps.apple.com/nz/app/glassons/id1525273016#see-all/reviews although the user rating is somewhat better than the android version.

[winner69]

Might be weak end to HLG financial year

Card spend June data Stats NZ showed retail sales up 0.9% (sa) on May - core retail up 0.6%

But apparel down 5.1% on May

That's some drop

[garfy]

Well said LaserEyeKiwi, I heartily agree with you.

[uravgtrader]

Looks like they've closed some stores in Sydney as of yesterday.

Time to buy more when it dips!

[Beagle]

Looks like they've closed some stores in Sydney as of yesterday.

Time to buy more when it dips!

You might not be the only one with that idea ;)

[uravgtrader]

Aaaand the sp hasn't budged lol

[winner69]

Not very well written article but it seems only small businesses going to get support in NSW ….no Job Keeper stuff etc

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/cash-for-sydney-businesses-after-nsw-weighed-up-its-own-jobkeeper-20210712-p58904.html

Doesn’t really matter that much as HLG basically already banked the $38m/$40m profit for F21 ….any complications next years problems

[BlackPeter]

Not very well written article but it seems only small businesses going to get support in NSW ….no Job Keeper stuff etc

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/nsw/cash-for-sydney-businesses-after-nsw-weighed-up-its-own-jobkeeper-20210712-p58904.html

Doesn’t really matter that much as HLG basically already banked the $38m/$40m profit for F21 ….any complications next years problems

Good then that share price is always forward looking :):

[winner69]

Good then that share price is always forward looking :):

In HLG’s case the market may be ‘forward looking’ but when any bad news hits it becomes rather ‘over reactive’

[Baa_Baa]

In HLG’s case the market may be ‘forward looking’ but when any bad news hits it becomes rather ‘over reactive’

The monthly chart 'rounding top', as posted some time ago, is still in play.

[Waltzing]

looks pretty stable for the last 6 months.

Best looking performance for the last 5 years on the chart.

[Balance]

looks pretty stable for the last 6 months.

Best looking performance for the last 5 years on the chart.

Mostly happy holders so not a lot of stock sloshing out there for sale.

Not a lot of buyers either given how much the stock has gone up.

Needs the next update to move the stock one way or the other.

[winner69]

The monthly chart 'rounding top', as posted some time ago, is still in play.

Price seems to have drifted below 50MA

The 50MA trending down and 200MA still trending up ........but not too far away from when cross ......DEATH CROSS i'm told when that happens

[Ferg]

The 50MA trending down and 200MA still trending up ........but not too far away from when cross ......DEATH CROSS i'm told when that happens
If information is power and time is money, then I'm curious why chartists and technical analysts don't use a 48/49 MA and a 190/195 day MA to detect a "death cross" so that they can take action a day or two before everyone else....?

[Snoopy]

If information is power and time is money, then I'm curious why chartists and technical analysts don't use a 48/49 MA and a 190/195 day MA to detect a "death cross" so that they can take action a day or two before everyone else....?


Aaaarrrgh you have spilled the beans on my TA technique to get one up on everyone else! Now I will have to use the 46/47 day MA and the 185/189 day MA to stay ahead of the crowd. But this time I will have to make sure this new information doesn't leak out. - Pauses for thought - Aaaaaarrrgh!

SNOOPY

[Ferg]

Aaaarrrgh you have spilled the beans on my TA technique to get one up on everyone else! Now I will have to use the 46/47 day MA and the 185/189 day MA to stay ahead of the crowd. But this time I will have to make sure this new information doesn't leak out. - Pauses for thought - Aaaaaarrrgh!

SNOOPY
Haha, my thoughts exactly....trying to detect a "death cross" becomes a "death spiral" as people use shorter and shorter measures....!

[Biscuit]

Aaaarrrgh you have spilled the beans on my TA technique to get one up on everyone else! Now I will have to use the 46/47 day MA and the 185/189 day MA to stay ahead of the crowd. But this time I will have to make sure this new information doesn't leak out. - Pauses for thought - Aaaaaarrrgh!

SNOOPY


Ha! Aha! but I have a plan, a plan so cunning you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel. But I'm not spilling the beans...

[nztx]

Ha! Aha! but I have a plan, a plan so cunning you could pin a tail on it and call it a weasel. But I'm not spilling the beans...

I have a spare truck .. but I'm not spilling any beans too ;)

[Beagle]

https://www.bing.com/images/search?view=detailV2&ccid=gN8mTf0M&id=813031B46655A6D2A335D549309BB6AB558561E8&thid=OIP.gN8mTf0MB_B0DkP2cNYfbQHaE8&mediaurl=https%3a%2f%2fi.pinimg.com%2foriginals%2f b1%2fc3%2fe2%2fb1c3e2ae92449f07798a9e98ef29de38.jp g&cdnurl=https%3a%2f%2fth.bing.com%2fth%2fid%2fR.80d f264dfd0c07f0740e43f670d61f6d%3frik%3d6GGFVau2mzBJ 1Q%26pid%3dImgRaw&exph=427&expw=640&q=beagle+pouncing&simid=608036020547556160&FORM=IRPRST&ck=A7D8CAAF37660A4994296E2681460D87&selectedIndex=5&qpvt=beagle+pouncing&ajaxhist=0&ajaxserp=0

[Waltzing]

a pounce on ice ... frozen ground .. ball will be deflected ..

[nztx]

what was all that about cunning plans ? ;)

[BlackPeter]

If information is power and time is money, then I'm curious why chartists and technical analysts don't use a 48/49 MA and a 190/195 day MA to detect a "death cross" so that they can take action a day or two before everyone else....?

Death cross is a lagging indicator - and I don't think that there are a lot of successful investors waiting for it to make their disinvestment decisions. It is just a nice (well, not so nice) confirmation of what everybody thought is going to happen anyway.

Lots of investors use lots of different MA (or EMA) combinations and most investors working with TA will look at a lot of other parameters (volume, momentum, RSI, ....) as well. Looking at the MA's - there is no better or worse combination - it is just, they are either slower but have less false signals or they are faster and have more false signals.

But I am sure you knew that anyway, didn't you?

[peat]

If information is power and time is money, then I'm curious why chartists and technical analysts don't use a 48/49 MA and a 190/195 day MA to detect a "death cross" so that they can take action a day or two before everyone else....?

Not on topic for HLG but....
there is the Tunnel Method , well defined on this link if you are really interested.

http://dl.fxf1.com/files/books/english/THE%201HR%20TUNNEL%20METHOD.pdf

12744

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-bracing-for-four-week-lockdown-extension-as-sydney-delta-outbreak-grows/FS7O5TKRO3BAXPKVGRCS4ZI7YM/

Excerpt "NSW businesses who suffered at least a 30 per cent drop in revenue due to the lockdown will be paid up to A$10,000 a week to cover costs - provided they keep their workers - under the new changes. The Covid-19 Disaster Payment would increase from A$500 to A$600 each week if a person lost 20 hours or more of work a week – or A$325 to A$375 each week if a person lost between eight and 20 hours of work".

Don't know the fine details but it looks okay for HLG.

[winner69]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-bracing-for-four-week-lockdown-extension-as-sydney-delta-outbreak-grows/FS7O5TKRO3BAXPKVGRCS4ZI7YM/

Excerpt "NSW businesses who suffered at least a 30 per cent drop in revenue due to the lockdown will be paid up to A$10,000 a week to cover costs - provided they keep their workers - under the new changes. The Covid-19 Disaster Payment would increase from A$500 to A$600 each week if a person lost 20 hours or more of work a week – or A$325 to A$375 each week if a person lost between eight and 20 hours of work".

Don't know the fine details but it looks okay for HLG.

They’ve survived world wars, oil crises, Depressions, GFCs so a few weeks of a so called lockdown in Sydney won’t hurt them

Their resilience will come through …..decent divie coming our way.

[Beagle]

they’ve survived world wars, oil crises, depressions, gfcs so a few weeks of a so called lockdown in sydney won’t hurt them

their resilience will come through …..decent divie coming our way.

Gold Standard !

[Bob50]

Share price at 1.5 month low but on just 2200 shares traded all up so far today. Holders don’t seem to be interested in selling.

[see weed]

Share price at 1.5 month low but on just 2200 shares traded all up so far today. Holders don’t seem to be interested in selling.
I will sell you some, how many do you want.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-bracing-for-four-week-lockdown-extension-as-sydney-delta-outbreak-grows/FS7O5TKRO3BAXPKVGRCS4ZI7YM/

Excerpt "NSW businesses who suffered at least a 30 per cent drop in revenue due to the lockdown will be paid up to A$10,000 a week to cover costs - provided they keep their workers - under the new changes. The Covid-19 Disaster Payment would increase from A$500 to A$600 each week if a person lost 20 hours or more of work a week – or A$325 to A$375 each week if a person lost between eight and 20 hours of work".

Don't know the fine details but it looks okay for HLG.

I wonder how this is calculated - on an individual store basis or on a statewide level (including online sales). HLG seemed to imply in their NZX announcement that they are confident online sales will fill the gap.

[Beagle]

I wonder how this is calculated - on an individual store basis or on a statewide level (including online sales). HLG seemed to imply in their NZX announcement that they are confident online sales will fill the gap.

I'm not sure how its going to be calculated but I am glad there is support. All I know for almost certain is I believe previous support has been at a level higher than the N.Z. Govt gave business here when they were in lockdown.

[winner69]

Share price seems to have fallen below both 100MA and 50MA

Must be time to sell


Maybe baabaa’s rounded top is playing out

[LaserEyeKiwi]

market update:


MARKET UPDATE – SYDNEY & MELBOURNE UPDATE

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd advises that the Government in New South Wales announced the Greater Sydney lockdown will continue until at least Friday July 30. The 13 Glassons stores in the Sydney area will remain closed until further notice to ensure the safety of our staff and customers.
The Group further advises that the Government in Victoria announced that the state would enter a strict lockdown from Friday July 15, and this has now been extended to 11.59pm on Tuesday July 27. The 13 Glassons stores in Victoria have been and will remain closed for the duration of the lockdown.
As with previous lockdowns there has been an increase in online sales which has helped to lessen the overall sales impact in Australia. All other stores in Australia, including the web, will continue to trade as normal. New Zealand stores are not affected.
The Group will continue to follow advice and monitor the situation closely to ensure an agile approach is taken to reduce any adverse impact on trading and to protect our team and customers.
Stuart Duncan

Group CEO

[LaserEyeKiwi]

MARKET UPDATE – SYDNEY & MELBOURNE UPDATE
Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd advises that the Government in New South Wales announced the Greater Sydney lockdown will continue until at least Friday July 30. The 13 Glassons stores in the Sydney area will remain closed until further notice to ensure the safety of our staff and customers.
The Group further advises that the Government in Victoria announced that the state would enter a strict lockdown from Friday July 15, and this has now been extended to 11.59pm on Tuesday July 27. The 13 Glassons stores in Victoria have been and will remain closed for the duration of the lockdown.
As with previous lockdowns there has been an increase in online sales which has helped to lessen the overall sales impact in Australia. All other stores in Australia, including the web, will continue to trade as normal. New Zealand stores are not affected.
The Group will continue to follow advice and monitor the situation closely to ensure an agile approach is taken to reduce any adverse impact on trading and to protect our team and customers.
Stuart Duncan
Group CEO

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Market Update:


MARKET UPDATE – SYDNEY & MELBOURNE UPDATE

Hallenstein Glasson Holdings Ltd advises that the Government in New South Wales announced the Greater Sydney lockdown will continue until at least Friday July 30. The 13 Glassons stores in the Sydney area will remain closed until further notice to ensure the safety of our staff and customers.
The Group further advises that the Government in Victoria announced that the state would enter a strict lockdown from Friday July 15, and this has now been extended to 11.59pm on Tuesday July 27. The 13 Glassons stores in Victoria have been and will remain closed for the duration of the lockdown.
As with previous lockdowns there has been an increase in online sales which has helped to lessen the overall sales impact in Australia. All other stores in Australia, including the web, will continue to trade as normal. New Zealand stores are not affected.
The Group will continue to follow advice and monitor the situation closely to ensure an agile approach is taken to reduce any adverse impact on trading and to protect our team and customers.
Stuart Duncan

Group CEO

[Waltzing]

From a 10 year view the chart looks like a sell but from a 6 months view it looks fine.

[Waltzing]

Net Div % starting to look very attractive at these prices again.

[winner69]

Net Div % starting to look very attractive at these prices again.

Be even more attractive when share price reaches 699

[Waltzing]

"699"

Winner(n) the chart shows no sign of dipping that low yet...... certainly would be a very tempting price to increase holdings.

I expect a certain investor representing portfolios to have perhaps purchases at 7.25 today buyers stepping in late in the day pushing back to 7.35.

[nztx]

Have an empty truck waiting - winner ;)

[Snow Leopard]

Have an empty truck waiting - winner ;)

Perhaps you could rent it Mainfreight or the like?

[winner69]

Director Michael Donovan has passed away

Been a Director since 1989

That's some tenure

[BlackPeter]

Director Michael Donovan has passed away

Been a Director since 1989

That's some tenure

Well, I hope this is not related to the board rejuvenation / succession policy they talked about?

[winner69]

Sydney lockdown to go for another 4 weeks …some say it might last to Xmas

No worries —- ScoMo throwing money around like it’s going out of fashion

Glassons do quite well through Oz lockdowns

[Old mate]

So there are 13 glassons in Sydney and 13 in Victoria (out of lockdown). Anyone know are there more in oz and how many in NZ please?

[777]

They publish an annual report which is accessible on their website. It has all the information you require.

[winner69]

Share price seems to be below the 30MA and 50MA and 100MA

Isn't that time to SELL

But you guys doing a great job in buying and keeping the share price sort of steady

One ;not so good' announcement (even if its not bad) could see share price go into free fall

Baabaa's rounded top and waltzingmans cyclical talk - maybe we should listen

[Rawz]

Just covid related (aussie lockdowns) weakness isnt it?

No actual worries with the business itself

[winner69]

Just covid related (aussie lockdowns) weakness isnt it?

No actual worries with the business itself

but isn't it 'sentiment' that drives the share price?

and the 'sentiment' measure at the moment is squiggly lines on a chart sort of heading downwards

[Rawz]

but isn't it 'sentiment' that drives the share price?

and the 'sentiment' measure at the moment is squiggly lines on a chart sort of heading downwards

I have given up trying to pick the short term direction of SP's. Too stressful for me, I allocate a percentage of my monthly pay to investments so always have fresh cash to add to positions. If the sentiment goes negative and the fundamentals are still the same I can happily top up on any dips.

[Beagle]

I understand the Australian Govt have lifted the wage subsidy rate quite nicely for business affected by the NSW lockdown. If this drags on for months, the net effect of it could have a small effect on Glassons Australia net earnings for FY22 (after the wage subsidy credit), however I continue to believe the track record and metrics of HLG make a strong case to hold and accumulate on any untoward weakness.

I don't "buy" the cyclical talk at all.

[Balance]

Lockdowns in Oz & TransTasman bubble suspended - SKC, THL, HLG, AIR, AIA etc get sold down by traders, and bought back up by fundamental investors.

Anything new to the sp action which I have missed?

[BlackPeter]

...

I don't "buy" the cyclical talk at all.

You are quite right - not cyclical .... I think sawtooth pattern would be a better description of the SP trend.

12794

Only worry is - SP at this stage appears to be quite high, but surely history will not repeat itself :) - won't it? :scared:

[winner69]

Did you mean something like this BlackPeter

Wonder what happened in early 2018 when it fell from 635 to 400 ---a whopping 40% - at a time HLG seemed to doing not too bad

[Beagle]

You are quite right - not cyclical .... I think sawtooth pattern would be a better description of the SP trend.

12794

Only worry is - SP at this stage appears to be quite high, but surely history will not repeat itself :) - won't it? :scared:

You were singing off exactly the same song sheet in early February regarding Turners when they were $3.15, currently $4.28 up ~36% in less than 6 months.

You're problem mate is you're looking much too far back in the rear view mirror.

[Baa_Baa]

You see whatever you're looking for. The monthly chart / indicators (https://invst.ly/vl40j) are unchanged since last posted, all pointing to SP weakness. Question is, when SP's are around ATH or have pulled back from an ATH, "what will it take to go higher and are they doing that?"

[Beagle]

I am comfortable with the way they're managing the business, (including them keeping wage subsidies) and expect ongoing strong growth with Glassons in Australia in the years ahead. Sentiment is clearly negative at this point with the NSW Covid outbreak. For me, unlike some others, its not all about TA but for what its worth I note they remain in an uptrend as measured the classic way, (200 day MA) that the legend KW uses as her benchmark.

[winner69]

Helped the cause…..end of year sale on ….got a couple pair of jeans $29.99 and a sweat $19.99

That’ll boost the divie

[BlackPeter]

You were singing off exactly the same song sheet in early February regarding Turners when they were $3.15, currently $4.28 up ~36% in less than 6 months.

You're problem mate is you're looking much too far back in the rear view mirror.

Maybe you are right ... there are only two problems with your argument:

1) one swallow does not make a summer :): and
2) I do not forecast share prices (we know from Ben Graham, that nobody can ;), don't we?

I only point to risks and opportunities, which may or may not materialize (as it is their nature).

So - just remind me - what was your argument?

[Beagle]

Maybe you are right ... there are only two problems with your argument:

1) one swallow does not make a summer :): (nice swallow though, very pretty and very valuable ;)
2) I do not forecast share prices (we know from Ben Graham, that nobody can ;), don't we? Not at all, we know from Ben Graham how to pick GARP stocks, growth at a reasonable price, a strategy I have been employing for years. Share prices follow earnings, predict future earnings growth and FAR more often than not the share prices follows but I think you know that already

I only point to risks and opportunities, which may or may not materialize (as it is their nature). "Blind Freddy" can see the risks...not everyone can see the opportunities though :p

So - just remind me - what was your argument?I have already posted extensively on the investment case for HLG. You keep pointing to their distant past and I keep reminding you that in recent years they have been growing very nicely indeed in Australia. We've had this debate before, at least once, probably more than once. I'll keep doing things my way because I know it works.

[Waltzing]

"I'll keep doing things my way because I know it works."

Mr B does things by the numbers.

Yes we also usually sell this stock but we have sold it so often that probability alone was pointing to a change of coin tossing. There have been some very long periods where the share price rose.

Did not change the font... global style list inherited from base class....

HLG share price for once is inheriting it support from past performance and forward expenditure of government stimulus here and across the tasman.

Lots of factors here are different from the past sell off points.

With sydney still locked down for ages the RBA will still be keeping interest rate low for a long while yet...

On line shopping any one?

Its retail , retail, retail for therapy...

[winner69]

HLG management pretty good so no doubt they took advantage of the spike in the NZD v USD and locked in plenty of cover around 72/73

Save the hurt when NZD drops to 65/66 when in a few weeks RBNZ holds OCR and becomes rather dovish when most expect the opposite.

[Waltzing]

NZ dollar will climb back as it usually does. The AGR sector is performing and NZ will outperform.

[BlackPeter]

I have already posted extensively on the investment case for HLG. You keep pointing to their distant past and I keep reminding you that in recent years they have been growing very nicely indeed in Australia. We've had this debate before, at least once, probably more than once. I'll keep doing things my way because I know it works.

Hmm - with all due respect ....

We both agree that you posted extensively on the shiny sides of this investment case :p. It would be however a stretch to claim that you typically tend to provide a balanced view.

What ever it is - things in your world seem to be either supercalifragilisticexpialidocious - or alternatively doomed.

And hey, this is o.k. - this is an open forum and I am sure that it is not just me who finds your posts normally quite useful. However - they frequently do need balance. Things are not black or white, but there are shades of grey ... and you don't get the full picture if you just focus on the shiny bits.

As long as you repeat often several times a week your song about the shiny bits and why this is the best company of the day (or week), it should be ok if I mention every odd month or so in response that there might be as well risks - without the need for you to become condescending.

Feel free to ignore my posts if you don't like them ... but lets try to keep this an open forum which helps people to see a bigger picture - shall we?

[BlackPeter]

By the way ... just came across this gem written some 14 months ago:


For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

While i know that I tend to post (as every other mortal) from time to time about risks (as well as opportunties) which don't eventuate ... how interesting that this seems to happen as well to the infallible beagle :);

Actually - it was once a German chancellor (Adenauer) saying to the press : "I do not care about the nonsense I said yesterday".

Fair enough. But lets apply this principle to all of us, shall we?

[Beagle]

"Interesting" post.

[BlackPeter]

If you have to stoop so low as to quote people's posts from ages ago you should as an absolute minimum quote the specific date the post was made to put it into its proper perspective. This appears to be from early 2020 sometime in the heat of the worst of the Covid crisis here. I would have previously thought that sort of personal character attack crap was beneath you...

Jeez - you must have a terrible weekend.

Maybe I can help improve your IT skills a bit ...

Just hover with the mouse over your pen-name in the quoted message (notice these wee arrows behind the beagle)? As soon as you hover close to them with the mouse - the message "view post" will magically appear. Depress left click ... and the mouse will bring you to the quoted message.

Funny though that you felt it appropriate to criticise me for mentioning some risks on a stock which (not yet ) eventuated. If the immortal beagle is doing these thing, than it must be right?

Maybe it is - you are a legend after all :p; However - if other mortals do the same thing to point out your hypocritical behaviour, then for some reason it is "personal attack cr*p".

I hope you get over whatever bugs you ... and feel better again at some stage.

Nothing worse than a grumpy beagle ... I hear they don't know right from wrong anymore and they bite whatever is in their way ... including their friends ...

[Snow Leopard]

....this is an open forum and I am sure that it is not just me who finds your posts normally quite useful.....

No, it is only you :p

[Beagle]

Tall poppy syndrome alive and kicking from some on here. https://www.howtomakepartner.com/what-is-tall-poppy-syndrome/

[blackie]

For what its worth BP I think Winner's insight is very useful. HLG's target market don't generally have large reserves of funds like you, I and others on here do to stock up at the supermarket so when they do start doing that non essential discretionary spending on other retail items like clothes probably takes quite a significant hit.

HLG also face a significant increase in the minimum wage with effect from 1 April 2020 which could not have come at a worse time. The currency is also under serious pressure.

I think its clear strong headwinds are building against HLG and its a good stock to avoid at present because nobody can reliably say at this point what their earnings will be in 2H FY20 let along FY21 so fundamental analysis is rendered almost useless and TA says emphatically to "stay away" so that's exactly what I'm going to do.

written 10/3/2020 when we were in absolute freefall.
I would say pretty good advice myself .

[James108]

Good advice? Absolutely not - since then the share price has more than doubled far outperforming the Nzx. A reasonable statement given the situation? Sure. But in no way was that good advice.

Some people made a lot of money investing counter to above advice.

[Beagle]

The record is clear on here that I talked extensively about the risks of Covid in early 2020, before we went into lockdown in late March 2020. I sold out at an average of about $6 because of the emerging risk of Covid and its possible effect on HLG and once those risks had materially ameliorated I restored my investment positions in accordance with the abating risks, at much lower prices.

For me its about risk management and risk mitigation, i.e. taking an approach that gives the optimum reward for the risks taken.

[blackie]

Good advice? Absolutely not - since then the share price has more than doubled far outperforming the Nzx. A reasonable statement given the situation? Sure. But in no way was that good advice.

Some people made a lot of money investing counter to above advice.

certainly , but your view today is retrospective.
any ironstein can predict the past.
you do not get any points for that.

[Waltzing]

" I restored my investment positions in accordance with the abating risks, at much lower prices."

the Hound was fast on the hunt... leaving everyone behind... as usual...

with the new Variants out there this thing is going to go on for years.

[kiwico]

Good advice? Absolutely not - since then the share price has more than doubled far outperforming the Nzx. A reasonable statement given the situation? Sure. But in no way was that good advice.

Some people made a lot of money investing counter to above advice.

I think the reference to "good advice" needs the suffix "... at the time." No one knew what would happen when the world was closing down (and people at RBNZ still seem surprised at what has).

And i would like to thank Beagle, BP and many others for the value they add here. Contrarians always welcome.

[James108]

We can only judge if advice/predictions are good if they are born out or accrue a benefit in reality. In this case they were not, so there is no question here. There is no points for having a reasonable opinion based on the current state of play that turns out to be wrong. No criticism here I’m sure most people would share the “reasonable” opinion, but doesn’t make it good advice if it results in a net loss compared to the alternative.

[James108]

Exactly this is the only way to judge if a judgement was good or not RETROSPECTIVELY.

[nztx]

" I restored my investment positions in accordance with the abating risks, at much lower prices."

the Hound was fast on the hunt... leaving everyone behind... as usual...

with the new Variants out there this thing is going to go on for years.




I threw me wallet at a select NZX bundle in the Covid depths, unless said target companies were looking fairly
well munted & terminal for durations extending well into the future .. ;)

Well looked after by the Covid Subsidies, lots of spare time in lock down too

while others were busy throwing their shares back onto NZX

what else was there to do .. other than trying to imagine the size of the losses others
were inflicting on themselves through hasty liquidation of positions in fear of it
evaporating..

the strategy, a bit of intuition and gut feeling thrown in, aided by rereading some very
informative postings by more experienced investors on here proved valuable

HLG never disappointed .. IMO it wont in the future either where others might

there aren't all that many worthy targets on the dartboard which deserve as much attention
and the past is fact.. while the future is subject of many opinions.
A lengthy track record should give indications on how a company may handle future conditions

To look to the future you need to be able to judge & evaluate the past and look to clues
on how the unreported recent past looks, current market clues and future trends.
Other's opinions may give interesting views on their evaluation of the same clues

[nztx]

Exactly this is the only way to judge if a judgement was good or not RETROSPECTIVELY.

I keep trying to tell myself that I should have listened to myself back then on some targets
I missed .. well back then, but alas it doesn't seem to be getting through .. just yet ;)

but why worry -- HLG are almost certainly going to come trotting out with a very nice fully imputed
Dividend .. just in time for Christmas .. :)

[Snoopy]

We can only judge if advice/predictions are good if they are born out or accrue a benefit in reality. In this case they were not, so there is no question here.


The above would be true if reality was a question of moving through a series of pre-ordained event points. But the future is not set in stone. It is determined by a series of possible paths, some more likely than others, with each path coming under different environmental stimuli both known and unknown to varying degrees when you set out on that path.

It is a bit like looking at an outsider come in at the races. People who win those bets will always look good with hindsight. But they can only claim to be good if they can pick more outsider winners than the average punter. If they don't do that, then picking the outsider winner can be better explained by blind luck. A series of events, including the favourite being upset by a rogue unpredictable event, that allows an outsider to win does not make gamblers on an outsider more skillful.



There is no points for having a reasonable opinion based on the current state of play that turns out to be wrong. No criticism here I’m sure most people would share the “reasonable” opinion, but doesn’t make it good advice if it results in a net loss compared to the alternative.


I couldn't disagree more with the above. A reasonable opinion must be based on a strategy. A winning strategy will not pan out on every occasion. The fact that a winning strategy over time will not be a winner on every occasion is accepted by every share investor. Successful investing is about stacking the odds in your favour, not by only measuring 'winners'. On occasions advice - in strategic terms - that leads to a single bad pick but more good picks can still be good advice.

SNOOPY

[Balance]

We do not give advice on this site - we give our opinions.

Those who take postings here as investment advice need to re-evaluate why they are here.

[Beagle]

HLG always run a very tight ship with their balance sheet so I don't need to wait and see that.
My updated valuation on an earning basis is $4.78 which assumes a similar level of Covid effect in FY21 and FY22 as occurred in FY20

I think there's sufficient margin of safety at the current price of just over $4 for investors to take a modest stake for dividend yield as part of a well diversified portfolio.

Others comments that we're headed to a zero interest rate is not in dispute at all. The argument is what sort of a dividend yield premium should one expect for HLG compared to say GNE which is yielding 6.1% plus imputation credits ? They're about 7.5% gross yield incl of imputation credits but we'll know a lot more tomorrow when they report.

For what its worth I have used a 1.5% gross premium assumption over GNE, (this on the face of looks modest for a retailer compared to a utility but HLG does have a stellar track record of divvy payments) and I want to see 9% gross yield inclusive of imputation credits for HLG and I have assumed in the medium term HLG can pay its last 16 year average of 31.5 cps in fully imputed dividends. Current year earnings at the mid point are 46.3 cps so 31.5 cps is a fairly conservative assumption and well below the payout ratio of recent years so the risk in the medium term is to the upside in my dividend assumption.

31.5 cps / 0.72 = 43.75 cents per share gross and at 9% gross that gives a value to me of $4.86 on a dividend yield model assuming no growth in dividends over time and risk free interest rate staying at 1% for the medium term.

That's where I see it for now...so much depends on how Covid plays out and only time will answer that question. I think on a balanced view of risks and rewards HLG are a pretty good hold at around $4.15 as an income stock. Disc: I bought a modest stake this afternoon. Probably worth noting that at $4.15 you're really only paying $4.00 for future earnings as you get 15 cents back as a dividend in a couple of weeks so yeah at $4 net I think that's pretty good buying considering how resilient the business has proved itself to be which I must confess has been most surprising. Posted 19/08/2020


" I restored my investment positions in accordance with the abating risks, at much lower prices."

the Hound was fast on the hunt... leaving everyone behind... as usual...

with the new Variants out there this thing is going to go on for years.


Having sold out at an average of $6, very early in 2020 to mitigate what were obvious risks, at least to me, of how Covid was going to affect shares, (I sold almost my entire portfolio before Covid hit) I was pretty cautious with the timing of getting back into HLG, in fact so cautious I was out of the stock for over 6 months but still an exit of $6 and reentry of $4 was not to shabby of a risk mitigagtion stratagy but I certainly didn;t lead the hunt getting back in, others were braver than I was. and got back in earlier.


We can only judge if advice/predictions are good if they are born out or accrue a benefit in reality. In this case they were not, so there is no question here. There is no points for having a reasonable opinion based on the current state of play that turns out to be wrong. No criticism here I’m sure most people would share the “reasonable” opinion, but doesn’t make it good advice if it results in a net loss compared to the alternative.

I put myself out there on here a lot, probably too much. The beauty / value of the forum is that it provides a platform for robust debate and if you go back to January to March 2020 in this thread you'll see I sold out and stated the reasons for doing so and there was heaps of robust debate on the possible effects of Covid on HLG. As subsequently noted in my post above on 19 August 2020 when I got back in for $2 less than I sold for, I was very surprised by how robustly HLG performed in 2H FY20. I try and mitigate periods of extreme risk. I sleep better doing that.

[nztx]

If I remember correctly the HLG announcements back around this time last year were the forerunner to listed retail stocks
starting to climb properly out of the Covid dip..

As posted on here & from media reports / release many saw large trading booms in the period after we came out of Lockdowns

[Old mate]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/prosper/125887870/june-was-the-strongest-month-for-small-businesses-since-level-4-lockdown-last-year-xero-reports
June strongest month for small business since level four lockdown.

[Beagle]

"
with the new Variants out there this thing is going to go on for years.


Probably time we talked about that elephant in the room. It was really disappointing to see NSW a few weeks ago think they could beat the delta variant with what amounted too a soft lockdown. Did they really imagine that allowing retailers to stay open wasn;t going to lead to people bored at home going out and getting things like building supplies and hardware and mixing and mingling at their local Bunnings store and that would lead to a good outcome ?

I agree that various variants will dog us for years and we might be playing with lockdowns of one size or another for some time to come but :-
a) HLG has proved very resilient during lockdowns (albeit aided and abetted with Govt assistance which I have no moral problems whatsoever with them taking and keeping)
b) Covid has really boosted their online sales and dragged consumer behavior forward in that regard by at least half a decade and this will have enduring benefits to HLG going forward with their two recently added distribution center's on both sides of the Tasman specifically created to meet strong growth in online sales
c) I would argue on a DCF basis the combination of and and b is close to neutral in terms of the valuation of HLG but accept others will have different views and that's fine.
d) The vaccine rollout should gradually lessen the severity, length and likelihood of future lockdowns going forward.

Looking forward to a company update this month. There remains huge scope for growth with Glassons in Australia in the years ahead but I am expecting the directors to be very cautious about expanding their store footprint in the current environment.

[Waltzing]

Will Remind MR B that he predicted an increase of money into managed funds for share markets.

NZ herald today had such an article by a NZ fund saying the phone was running hot with money from the housing market as it started to be redirected with the introduction of new tax laws.

Also chatted to a real estate agent who used to drive asian investors around towns in the central waikato who said there are too many agents now chasing to few properties for sale.

People are sitting on their new wealth and retail should do well this summer as there will be no "wear" to go but to that BQ in some nice new gear.

Imagine HLG will be running out of swim wear this summer.

As an aside expecting to travel in europe in future with N95 masks and visors except when one is biking or swimming. Otherwise its kit up and get the jabs and the bosters.

[Snoopy]

Will Remind MR B that he predicted an increase of money into managed funds for share markets.

NZ herald today had such an article by a NZ fund saying the phone was running hot with money from the housing market as it started to be redirected with the introduction of new tax lawns.


There is an easy solution for that. Rip up the lawn and build a new deck - where the lawn was - with the cashed out money. Isn't that what all the CEOs do when they sell down their shareholdings? ;-)

SNOOPY

[Waltzing]

LAWS ..... LAWS...

DIC Snoop swoops again!

HLG a Hold.

[nztx]

There is an easy solution for that. Rip up the lawn and build a new deck - where the lawn was - with the cashed out money. Isn't that what all the CEOs do when they sell down their shareholdings? ;-)

SNOOPY

hope they dont find too many skeletons of an earlier generation of former money men
who fell on their swords or perished for a variety of reasons.. buried under the turf ;)

obviously if any are found, none of them were smart enough to have a few honest HLG shares
tucked under their belts, before meeting their downfalls in pursuit of questionable faster money
or other dubious schemes .. ;)

[Waltzing]

Once they get Aussi Vaccinated it should be back to opening those stores. New stats out in the US shows a very very low rate of "break through cases" .. mask up in the future..

havnt checked the register but it would be interesting see what VG group sectors weighting they have in retail NZ.. They have just dumped a far bit ARG, KIP and SKC.

[Onion]

…. introduction of new tax lawns.

We should oppose new taxes on lawns - irrespective of the presence of decks, helicopter pads, etc..

And don’t even mention the tax deductibility of lawn mowers (unless electric of course).

Write to your local MP!

:D

[Waltzing]

Be aware container charges from china to europe are now sky tower stuff.

Maybe margins are going to hit in the next 12 months.

One BBC interview quoted an importer of games saying there costs had gone from 2000 to 15000 pounds for freighting.

Thats just not a small increase and interview saying profits would be impacted hugely.

[iceman]

Be aware container charges from china to europe are now sky tower stuff.

Maybe margins are going to hit in the next 12 months.

One BBC interview quoted an importer of games saying there costs had gone from 2000 to 15000 pounds for freighting.

Thats just not a small increase and interview saying profits would be impacted hugely.




Absolutely right and this is the biggest threat to global trade & prices, particularly for very small far away markets like NZ where we are finding it increasingly difficult to even get the shipping companies to service us. So lets all thank our lucky stars for our farmers for growing food that the World needs. Without them and their valuable exports we'd have no shipping service to/from NZ
This is not likely to change lower anytime soon as there is simply not enough shipping capacity and it will take years to rebuild, so no pressure on current freight providers to reduce prices.

This will lead to serious inflation in NZ & around the World. HLG will be affected like everyone else, whether importing or exporting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/higher-shipping-costs-are-here-to-stay-sparking-price-increases

[winner69]

ABS June Retail sales in Australia out yesterday. Overal sales down 1.8% (sa)

Clothing retailing DOWN 11.1% in June (seasonally adjusted)

Clothing by far the worst performing sector - even worse than bars/cafes/restaurants/takeaways

Aussies not buying clothes in June

[winner69]

At least no news from HLG is good news - that's good

But if 'not so good' news comes out from them expect share price to collapse - past would suggest 20% drop is possible. HLG is that kind of stock - very susceptible to bad news to panic holders

[Balance]

Absolutely right and this is the biggest threat to global trade & prices, particularly for very small far away markets like NZ where we are finding it increasingly difficult to even get the shipping companies to service us. So lets all thank our lucky stars for our farmers for growing food that the World needs. Without them and their valuable exports we'd have no shipping service to/from NZ
This is not likely to change lower anytime soon as there is simply not enough shipping capacity and it will take years to rebuild, so no pressure on current freight providers to reduce prices.

This will lead to serious inflation in NZ & around the World. HLG will be affected like everyone else, whether importing or exporting. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-12/higher-shipping-costs-are-here-to-stay-sparking-price-increases

Yup - every importer (and exporter) is and will be affected until conditions normalize - and normalize there will because Economics 101 tells you that super profits in commodity markets (and freight is a commodity) do not last.

So it comes down to the pricing power and ability of the business to absorb and/or pass on cost increases.

Most of the listed retailers have showed that they can pass on the cost increases (HLG, WHS, BGP, MHJ to name 4). Likewise, car, machinery and building material importers.

So do your analysis and decide on your investments accordingly.

[Beagle]

Yup - every importer (and exporter) is and will be affected until conditions normalize - and normalize there will because Economics 101 tells you that super profits in commodity markets (and freight is a commodity) do not last.

So it comes down to the pricing power and ability of the business to absorb and/or pass on cost increases.

Most of the listed retailers have showed that they can pass on the cost increases (HLG, WHS, BGP, MHJ to name 4). Likewise, car, machinery and building material importers.

So do your analysis and decide on your investments accordingly.

Well said. Increased shipping costs is not a new issue and HLG talked about the impact of this at some length in their half year report. They have had plenty of time to adjust their pricing and business model and higher costs are being passed on to customers.

By and large I think there is widespread awareness amongst consumers of the issue and an acceptance that stuff, weather's its bikinis or boats or anything in between, costs more.

[Waltzing]

"very susceptible to bad news to panic holders"

scaring the horses....

Costs of shipping are fluid and the impact of this might not turn up until xmas..

Ships are back up out at Mount?

Board games shipping costs from china reported on BBC were impacting profits on importers.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Also worth pointing out that shipping costs on clothing is rather tiny per unit.

[Beagle]

Also worth pointing out that shipping costs on clothing is rather tiny per unit.

I am slightly tempted to post a link to Glassons swimwear section of their website as some of those clothing units are really tiny :D...but we live in such PC times these days you never know who might be offended.

[Balance]

I am slightly tempted to post a link to Glassons swimwear section of their website as some of those clothing units are really tiny :D...but we live in such PC times these days you never know who might be offended.

Haha - the glossy AR is enough? :p

[Old mate]

Link please:t_up:

[see weed]

I am slightly tempted to post a link to Glassons swimwear section of their website as some of those clothing units are really tiny :D...but we live in such PC times these days you never know who might be offended.
Them their swimwear don't weigh very much. Would air freight be better cheaper and faster? And how much extra to pay for clothes to cover freight, an extra 50c per garment :eek2: Whoopy do

[Beagle]

Must try harder not to be a naughty dog posting links to sexy sections of website is bad dog behavior.

Here's a link to their most recent half year report though. Useful to reflect on that and ponder the full year outcome. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/371324/344977.pdf

[Waltzing]

"an extra 50c per garment"

arnt most passenger jets that carry freight are parked up...and freight aircraft must be prebooked already.

freight out of china is being move back months. Apparently you can book a container but you wont get it for months and your shipment will just be sitting waiting for the next 3 containers and you wont know which one or shipping you will get.

BBC games importer was quote over X5 fold increase in freight

[BlackPeter]

"an extra 50c per garment"

arnt most passenger jets that carry freight are parked up...and freight aircraft must be prebooked already.

freight out of china is being move back months. Apparently you can book a container but you wont get it for months and your shipment will just be sitting waiting for the next 3 containers and you wont know which one or shipping you will get.

BBC games importer was quote over X5 fold increase in freight




Clearly - it might be better to own under these circumstances a freight company (e.g. MFT or FRE) rather than owning a company which needs to pay for freight to transport their goods ...

[Waltzing]

"(e.g. MFT or FRE) "

buy the freights is always a play when the global crisis arrive... 2 global crisis in 10 years...

retail therapy is probably still a trade for summer 2022.

[iceman]

Also worth pointing out that shipping costs on clothing is rather tiny per unit.

They've gone up by the same percentage as anything else, whatever unit you ship in

[iceman]

Yup - every importer (and exporter) is and will be affected until conditions normalize - and normalize there will because Economics 101 tells you that super profits in commodity markets (and freight is a commodity) do not last.

So it comes down to the pricing power and ability of the business to absorb and/or pass on cost increases.

Most of the listed retailers have showed that they can pass on the cost increases (HLG, WHS, BGP, MHJ to name 4). Likewise, car, machinery and building material importers.

So do your analysis and decide on your investments accordingly.

Totally agree. It will be important for the next couple of years to be invested in companies that are well managed and can pass on cost increases and at the moment I think the retailers still can. But shipping is a high risk area at the moment both with availability and pricing. Much more so than people were expecting even 4-5 months ago.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

They've gone up by the same percentage as anything else, whatever unit you ship in

I think you misunderstand - the “unit” here is the item of clothing. The point being that shipping costs per clothing item is small fraction of the cost of goods sold for HLG inventory. So in comparison to other larger/heavier retail goods being imported from China etc, the impact of shipping costs increases impacts HLG to a smaller degree.

eg shipping costs on a t-shirt doubling from 8c to 16c per unit is much easier to absorb vs say a oil column heater shipping cost doubling from $3 to $6.

[iceman]

I think you misunderstand - the “unit” here is the item of clothing. The point being that shipping costs per clothing item is small fraction of the cost of goods sold for HLG inventory. So in comparison to other larger/heavier retail goods being imported from China etc, the impact of shipping costs increases impacts HLG to a smaller degree.

eg shipping costs on a t-shirt doubling from 8c to 16c per unit is much easier to absorb vs say a oil column heater shipping cost doubling from $3 to $6.

No misunderstanding. It is obvious that a t-shirt costs less to ship than a kg of milk powder !!!
My point is shipping, both availability and pricing, is becoming a huge issue. In my industry we are just pleased if we can get containers at all.

[Waltzing]

"In my industry we are just pleased if we can get containers at all."

your on the front lines...its a worry...

OCR will go up and the disposable incomes will reduce..

[see weed]

Must try harder not to be a naughty dog posting links to sexy sections of website is bad dog behavior.

Here's a link to their most recent half year report though. Useful to reflect on that and ponder the full year outcome. http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-website-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/attachments/HLG/371324/344977.pdf
Expecting next update in the next couple of weeks. Hopefully good one and more big div payouts.

[Beagle]

No misunderstanding. It is obvious that a t-shirt costs less to ship than a kg of milk powder !!!
My point is shipping, both availability and pricing, is becoming a huge issue. In my industry we are just pleased if we can get containers at all.

Refrigerated in your industry though, to be fair.

[Waltzing]

more cases in Aus, they way this is going might be lucky and get HLG under 7.

[winner69]

more cases in Aus, they way this is going might be lucky and get HLG under 7.

The Charleston Glassons store in the Hunter region listed as a close contact store ….punters (and probably staff) need to get tested and isolate for 14 days no matter the outcome.

Store probably closed now

No worries ..plenty of corporate welfare

You’ll get your 5 or 6 bucks soon …maybe next month ….when the delta becomes rampant in basically an unvaccinated NZ ….punters will panic ……even Mr B will put into action his risk mitigation plans to keep the gains he has made

[Waltzing]

"when the delta becomes rampant in basically an unvaccinated NZ …"

its tried several times and doesnt seem to like the climate and the density of population here seems to pose a problem.

Either way so far God seems to be resident in GOD's Own..

Only explanation that makes any sense...

Certainly ave down if those prices turn up...

Dont mind lock downs as cycling on deserted road and sculling on deserted lakes is wonderful... just like back in sweden...

[allfromacell]

"when the delta becomes rampant in basically an unvaccinated NZ …"

its tried several times and doesnt seem to like the climate and the density of population here seems to pose a problem.

Either way so far God seems to be resident in GOD's Own..

Only explanation that makes any sense...

Certainly ave down if those prices turn up...

Dont mind lock downs as cycling on deserted road and sculling on deserted lakes is wonderful... just like back in sweden...



NZ vaccines are really starting to ramp up now with 40k plus being administered per day and we now have 15.6% fully vaccinated and another 25.6% having had at least one shot. (taken from interest.co.nz today). Hopefully by the time we have an outbreak these numbers will be significantly higher but we're getting there quicker now.

Another update just on close regarding Aussie, good to see emphasis on online sales helping a lot. Hopefully the online platform is so much better than the competition that we ultimately capture more market share even quicker.

[nztx]

The Charleston Glassons store in the Hunter region listed as a close contact store ….punters (and probably staff) need to get tested and isolate for 14 days no matter the outcome.

Store probably closed now

No worries ..plenty of corporate welfare

You’ll get your 5 or 6 bucks soon …maybe next month ….when the delta becomes rampant in basically an unvaccinated NZ ….punters will panic ……even Mr B will put into action his risk mitigation plans to keep the gains he has made


Oh .. I better empty the trucks now in readiness for the next chapters to ensue .. ;)


then there will likely be a queue with the friendly canine presence waiting to do something similar .. ;)

[winner69]

one thing about timing of recent lock downs in OZ is that it won't impact F21 and F22 that much

F21 profits basically all locked away so a few weeks in Sydney wont hurt much

And no need to worry about F22 as we have all year to recover the impact of a small blip on the radar

[see weed]

Went to Hallensteins Sylvia Park on Saturday morning to buy a bow tie and walked out with a pair of $99.99 boots which I wore dancing to a ball that night. The shop was pretty busy, but not as busy as Glassons next door. Complemented both shops for doing a good job in such a good long standing company, and they both agreed, then did a couple of dance steps and was on my way. The only problem I have with HLG is every time I want to buy or sell a few thousand it pushes the sp up or down 10c or so:scared:.

[Snow Leopard]

...The only problem I have with HLG is every time I want to buy or sell a few thousand it pushes the sp up or down 10c or so:scared:.

If you could be so kind as to sell down to the mid sixes I for one would be very appreciative.

[850man]

If you could be so kind as to sell down to the mid sixes I for one would be very appreciative.

Yeah, tiny volumes traded. A well run company in damn good shape and weathered the Covid storm exceptionally well thus far. Hard not to hold just for the stonking divvy alone!

[Old mate]

Get the truck warmed up:t_up: