HLG - Hallenstein Glasson

[Beagle]

one thing about timing of recent lock downs in OZ is that it won't impact F21 and F22 that much

F21 profits basically all locked away so a few weeks in Sydney wont hurt much

And no need to worry about F22 as we have all year to recover the impact of a small blip on the radar

I am not so sure about that. As previously posted I think the directors will take a very cautious approach towards expanding their retail footprint in Australia now. Aussie journalist on breakfast T.V. this morning talking about the despondency of people in NSW, staring down the barrel of being locked down for quite some time, possibly even till Christmas and some small business's in NSW already gone broke. He talked a lot about the mental health pressure of being locked down week after week after week, with no end in sight. Wage subsidies will help HLG, for sure but I have rolled back my expectations of when and to what degree Glassons expansion in Australia will happen as if I was a director I'd want this pandemic well and truly in the rear view mirror before committing to store expansion... Does affect their growth rate going forward in the short term, in my opinion and winds back any DCF valuation a little bit.

Share price reflecting the reality of the situation in my opinion and probably fair value at ~ $7.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-queensland-victoria-outbreaks-grow/4CHJUKS6TEAH7JT3G5WPS2QWNQ/

[winner69]

I am not so sure about that. As previously posted I think the directors will take a very cautious approach towards expanding their retail footprint in Australia now. Aussie journalist on breakfast T.V. this morning talking about the despondency of people in NSW, staring down the barrel of being locked down for quite some time, possibly even till Christmas and some small business's in NSW already gone broke. He talked a lot about the mental health pressure of being locked down week after week after week, with no end in sight. Wage subsidies will help HLG, for sure but I have rolled back my expectations of when and to what degree Glassons expansion in Australia will happen as if I was a director I'd want this pandemic well and truly in the rear view mirror before committing to store expansion... Does affect their growth rate going forward in the short term, in my opinion and winds back any DCF valuation a little bit.

Share price reflecting the reality of the situation in my opinion and probably fair value at ~ $7.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-queensland-victoria-outbreaks-grow/4CHJUKS6TEAH7JT3G5WPS2QWNQ/

Don't forget that even in dire times HLG have paid a good divie

Thinks its averaged about 30 cents this century alone

[winner69]

Looks like share price recovering after seaweed (possibly?) dumped a few earlier today

Wouldn't want it below 7 bucks although beagle seemed a bit despondent earlier

[Waltzing]

Oh no this is wonderful are we going to see 6 dollars? Oh wouldnt that be wonderful!!!

Champagne all the way back to copenhagen business class next year or possible 2023... if there is yet another variant.

huge volumen... huge...volumen

[Beagle]

Looks like share price recovering after seaweed (possibly?) dumped a few earlier today

Wouldn't want it below 7 bucks although beagle seemed a bit despondent earlier

Definitely not despondent. Incredibly well managed company facing some challenges for some undefined period of time in Australia which will slow down their expansion there. Beggars belief that Australian health "experts" thought a soft lockdown many weeks ago would beat the Delta Variant. Talk about Gross Recklessness and total incompetence. :rolleyes:

HLG a good solid HOLD as compared to say WHS being a strong BUY, in my opinion.

[Playa]

Definitely not despondent. Incredibly well managed company facing some challenges for some undefined period of time in Australia which will slow down their expansion there. Beggars belief that Australian health "experts" thought a soft lockdown many weeks ago would beat the Delta Variant. Talk about Gross Recklessness and total incompetence. :rolleyes:

HLG a good solid HOLD as compared to say WHS being a strong BUY, in my opinion.

NSW premier has a bit to answer for. If they had gone hard and early maybe they could have been on top of it by now ,but locking down this suburb and not that one is a joke.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

NSW premier has a bit to answer for. If they had gone hard and early maybe they could have been on top of it by now ,but locking down this suburb and not that one is a joke.

Yes it was a major failure from both the state government and also a completely absent federal response. Australia has gone from essentially being covid free to facing the likely end result of covid being endemic and relying on vaccination to cope (which will still lead to thousands of deaths eventuating). Especially as even now they still haven’t instituted a level 4 like lockdown.

[Waltzing]

Volumen 33,000

Huge, bit of a bottom going in here and it doesnt look like the variant is as air borne as some expected which means the Australian situation might come under control in a 4 or 5 weeks.

[Old mate]

18 percent of over 15 yrs are fully vaccinated and 46 %have one shot in NSW.

[Balance]

Yes it was a major failure from both the state government and also a completely absent federal response. Australia has gone from essentially being covid free to facing the likely end result of covid being endemic and relying on vaccination to cope (which will still lead to thousands of deaths eventuating). Especially as even now they still haven’t instituted a level 4 like lockdown.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_0zFEtPbiA

Enjoy the narrative of why NSW & Australia has a covid outbreak problem.

Because it is so bad, government there has no choice but to start providing financial support to businesses and workers again.

[Waltzing]

"financial support to businesses and workers again."

with AUS resources exports starting to turn around after the china wing ding they can probably afford it..its only coal that will be there big problem with pretty much everything else they have going gang busters.

[Balance]

"financial support to businesses and workers again."

with AUS resources exports starting to turn around after the china wing ding they can probably afford it..its only coal that will be there big problem with pretty much everything else they have going gang busters.

Iron ore exports alone were A$116 billion more in the last year!

[LaserEyeKiwi]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_0zFEtPbiA

Enjoy the narrative of why NSW & Australia has a covid outbreak problem.

Because it is so bad, government there has no choice but to start providing financial support to businesses and workers again.

funny video - but the NSW outbreak that is ravaging the country didn’t come form a quarantine hotel, it was from international aircrew, so the situation was much more about how to react promptly to a community outbreak - which they failed miserably at.

[Waltzing]

" from international aircrew." were they jabbed... skegg report becoming out and 8 weeks might be the new jab interval.. Tauranga highlighting the NZ border problem.

Its a wonder the country is where its at but with a population spread out NZ has been very very lucky , the lucky country.

Support of Aus population from Aus Govt is certainly good for retail.

[winner69]

" from international aircrew." were they jabbed... skegg report becoming out and 8 weeks might be the new jab interval.. Tauranga highlighting the NZ border problem.

Its a wonder the country is where its at but with a population spread out NZ has been very very lucky , the lucky country.

Support of Aus population from Aus Govt is certainly good for retail.

That ‘adherence to protocols’ (yeah right) at Tauranga could see us in lockdown by weeks end …hard and fast is the way to go they say

[LaserEyeKiwi]

" from international aircrew." were they jabbed... skegg report becoming out and 8 weeks might be the new jab interval.. Tauranga highlighting the NZ border problem.

Its a wonder the country is where its at but with a population spread out NZ has been very very lucky , the lucky country.

Support of Aus population from Aus Govt is certainly good for retail.

even fully vaccinated people can still catch it and be spreaders (actually more likely to be unknowingly spreaders as they have often have no symptoms).

NZ population isn’t really a factor in out “luck” - NZ cities and distribution are the same density as most of USA, Australia, Canada etc. the only thing that stopped Covid becoming endemic in April 2020 was our month long hard lockdown.

[850man]

even fully vaccinated people can still catch it and be spreaders (actually more likely to be unknowingly spreaders as they have often have no symptoms).

NZ population isn’t really a factor in out “luck” - NZ cities and distribution are the same density as most of USA, Australia, Canada etc. the only thing that stopped Covid becoming endemic in April 2020 was our month long hard lockdown.

yes vaccinated people can still catch it and spread it. Only solution is to have as many as possible vaccinated and those that are not will be dicing with death. NZ is in the shape we are by no more than good luck

[Waltzing]

Not sure about density as most european cities look more tightly packed than auckland.

Anyway HLG should be tossing out another good div and a trading update will be welcome some time.

[nztx]

Did someone forget to mention that HLG were introducing a new revenue source somewhere ? ;)

like Vax-ing facilities to be parked in every store in Oz ? ;)

[Waltzing]

"like Vax-ing facilities to be parked in every store in Oz ?"

Aus may need a lot more jab out posts...

and the debacle in port POT is troubling..

[see weed]

Looks like share price recovering after seaweed (possibly?) dumped a few earlier today

Wouldn't want it below 7 bucks although beagle seemed a bit despondent earlier
Sorry about that. I only dumped 2 lots of 4000. But may buy them back next week before results come out:mellow:

[Waltzing]

"2 lots of 4000"

its perilous ... imagine if you tried to sell down a whole portfolio worth...what if you had it in more than one portfolio...

it needs NZX 50 before you can safely hold this stock to any decent level.

They did have an aggressive big red sales pitch in the shops window in centre place at the weekend.

[Balance]

"2 lots of 4000"

its perilous ... imagine if you tried to sell down a whole portfolio worth...what if you had it in more than one portfolio...

it needs NZX 50 before you can safely hold this stock to any decent level.

They did have an aggressive big red sales pitch in the shops window in centre place at the weekend.

Perilous only if you have a negative view of the stock - in which case, you should not be even in the stock surely!

But yes, one should never be too exposed in any stock unless one is very positive on a stock with good reasons.

[Waltzing]

The perilous nature of this stock makes it a wonderful opportunity..but not one to go over weight as im sure MR B will say , Stay Balanced.

[Balance]

The perilous nature of this stock makes it a wonderful opportunity..but not one to go over weight as im sure MR B will say , Stay Balanced.

Perilous? Been one of the best performing stocks for long term holders.

[Waltzing]

"Perilous"

compared to say electricity generation but perhaps perilous could now apply to fruit sector with climate change.

Certainly HLG has been a wonderful trade or a great investment.

potentially perilous if your went over weight and you had to ride the dips and you were over weight in 80% range..

[winner69]

Electronic Card Spend in NZ for July (ex Stats NZ)

New Zealanders stock pantries and extend wardrobes in July

Apparel sector sales up 3.8% on June (seasonally adjusted)

Love seasonally adjusted numbers - actual was only 0.8% more than July last year

But whose quibbling - positive is positive and much better than going backwards

[nztx]

Perilous? Been one of the best performing stocks for long term holders.


it might be shown later that it was perilous to sell early too .. ;)

[Waltzing]

NSW covid numbers biggest day yet?

looks like this is going to extend for a while... HLG prices might see a downward handle..

another 10 percent down in consumer confidence index.

[nztx]

NSW covid numbers biggest day yet?

looks like this is going to extend for a while... HLG prices might see a downward handle..

another 10 percent down in consumer confidence index.


I might need another empty truck to be readied soon .. at this rate ;)

[Mammoth]

I might need another empty truck to be readied soon .. at this rate ;)

Beep beep beep beep.....load it up.

[BlackPeter]

Beep beep beep beep.....load it up.

I remember some saying involving catching falling knifes and cut off fingers .... anybody still knows how it goes?

I guess I have no idea how this will work out, but the resistance so far looks pretty weak and far away ... maybe no fuel for all these empty trucks waiting to be loaded?

[Jantar]

...the resistance so far looks pretty weak and far away ... maybe no fuel for all these empty trucks waiting to be loaded? I see my average buy price is $3.37. I am quite happy to just hold and collect those nice juicy dividends./

[BlackPeter]

I see my average buy price is $3.37. I am quite happy to just hold and collect those nice juicy dividends./

... and so you should.

Good company as well - the only thing I am not sure about is how the market will set short / medium term the share price :) . It is a bit like watching waves at the sea ... after a high crest often comes not a still higher crest but first a deep trough .... well, you know what I mean.

Nothing wrong with buy and hold for such a company, for anybody who bought at the right price (and I think you did).

I was just reacting to this increase of "backing up empty truck" posts ... one of my indicators for how a share is doing. SP typically inversely correlated with the frequency of these statements.

[peat]

.
I was just reacting to this increase of "backing up empty truck" posts ... one of my indicators for how a share is doing. SP typically inversely correlated with the frequency of these statements.

Someone needs to do a formal study on this!! You did a good study on analysts predictions BP , so I nominate you

[Rawz]

We all know COVID lockdowns are bad for retail whilst locked down but has everyone forgotten the revenge spending once the lockdown is lifted?

Are these the dips we want? Or is everyone a trader these days?

If it drops a wee bit more ill be adding. Just looked up and the last time I purchased HLG was $6.63 last Dec.

[Balance]

We all know COVID lockdowns are bad for retail whilst locked down but has everyone forgotten the revenge spending once the lockdown is lifted?

Are these the dips we want? Or is everyone a trader these days?

If it drops a wee bit more ill be adding. Just looked up and the last time I purchased HLG was $6.63 last Dec.

Don't forget the 23c fully imputed dividend paid in April this year.

There is understandable nervousness heading into the F21 results announcement with the NSW & Australian lockdowns adding to the anxiety.

All will be revealed in around 2 weeks' time and HLG will not disappoint imo.

Happy holder.

[winner69]

VWAP today still over 697

No worries

[Balance]

VWAP today still over 697

No worries

Who is worried?

I was there at $6.90 bid but pulled out as the offer side started looking thin.

Will be back if it approaches $6.90 again.

Waiting for the results and looking for the sp to gap up on volume.

[winner69]

Hipkins / Bloomfield talking as if the Delta is already here …and straight into Level 4 we go (next week maybe)

Followed by their resignations for allowing it to get here

Stuff HLG up for a while

[Balance]

Hipkins / Bloomfield talking as if the Delta is already here …and straight into Level 4 we go (next week maybe)

Followed by their resignations for allowing it to get here

Stuff HLG up for a while

Look at PX1 or MFB - does not need Covid to stuff them up huh?

You still in both stocks, W69?

[winner69]

Look at PX1 or MFB - does not need Covid to stuff them up huh?

You still in both stocks, W69?

Still got a few (free) Plexure but profit shrinking fast eh mate

Bought some MFB a few weeks ago to return the ones I borrowed from an acquaintance (I don’t think he sees me as an acquaintance any more lol) so made a few bob.

Ominous speak from Hopkins last day or two

[Balance]

Still got a few (free) Plexure but profit shrinking fast eh mate

Bought some MFB a few weeks ago to return the ones I borrowed from an acquaintance (I don’t think he sees me as an acquaintance any more lol) so made a few bob.

Free shares?

[winner69]

Free shares?

Yep, the standard Sharetrader calculation of average buy price

[Balance]

Yep, the standard Sharetrader calculation of average buy price

Ah, the ole ‘watch my profit dissipate’ reasoning when profits are left in a stock which has headed south rather than booked and reinvested into other stocks.

You could have switched PX1 at $1.40 last year into HLG fur example and you will still be sitting on a nice HLG profit plus 23 cents dividend with your gains intact!

Must admit I regret selling down my FBU stake as a portfolio reweighting exercise after its sp more than doubled into ‘free’ FBU shares - should have kept the whole lot and continue to be heavily overweight!!!!

[777]

Ah, the ole ‘watch my profit dissipate’ reasoning when profits are left in a stock which has headed south rather than booked and reinvested into other stocks.

You could have switched PX1 at $1.40 last year into HLG fur example and you will still be sitting on a nice HLG profit plus 23 cents dividend with your gains intact!

Ah, the ole 20/20 hindsight.

[nztx]

Beep beep beep beep.....load it up.


Indeed .. is it time yet ? :)

[winner69]

Ah, the ole ‘watch my profit dissipate’ reasoning when profits are left in a stock which has headed south rather than booked and reinvested into other stocks.

You could have switched PX1 at $1.40 last year into HLG fur example and you will still be sitting on a nice HLG profit plus 23 cents dividend with your gains intact!

Must admit I regret selling down my FBU stake as a portfolio reweighting exercise after its sp more than doubled into ‘free’ FBU shares - should have kept the whole lot and continue to be heavily overweight!!!!

Switched most PX1 into WHS …..that was pretty cool eh …thought WHS worth a punt back then

[Balance]

Switched most PX1 into WHS …..that was pretty cool eh …thought WHS worth a punt back then

Bravo! Well done but you should have done the ‘free’ PX1 shares as well?

[Balance]

Ah, the ole 20/20 hindsight.

Like the ‘free’ shares reasoning?

[Rawz]

Shoulda woulda coulda.

A discussion of what we should have done in the stock market. Hmmmm if only we could have our time over. I would be at least 100x by now.

Anyways, glad I bought HLG during the initial COVID half price sale (should have bought more). We might just get another chance for some more cheap HLG shares the way sentiment is right now.

[Balance]

Shoulda woulda coulda.

A discussion of what we should have done in the stock market. Hmmmm if only we could have our time over. I would be at least 100x by now.

Anyways, glad I bought HLG during the initial COVID half price sale (should have bought more). We might just get another chance for some more cheap HLG shares the way sentiment is right now.

Be great if we get another opportunity like last year to load up on all the companies whose sp were hammered down 60% to 90%!

[nztx]

Be great if we get another opportunity like last year to load up on all the companies whose sp were hammered down 60% to 90%!


yes, with what's going on in OZ it's crossed my mind a few times too - a matter of not if but when
there's a slip .. (remember two fortunate outcomes on potentials which could have been so far)

and those we know about -- how many other grave Covid risk situations are there out there
that no politician has or would dare coming out with for fear of the 'in-crew' losing their
grundies badly and really infuriating a very patient enduring Joe Public, whose patience
must have it's limits with the floundering spinning bureacracy charged with doing more than
dreaming the nation's safe on a wish, promise, spin & not looking any further .. ;)

the luck wont last forever ;)

I've started insulating in case .. far far away from NZX & anything with too much exposure,
the potentials elsewhere I believe could exceed anything in appreciations on NZX plus
a whole heap more & allow opportunity to come back with twice as many empty trucks
at a fraction of the toll later, if opportunity presents itself ;)

[Leftfield]

I've started insulating in case .. far far away from NZX & anything with too much exposure,
the potentials elsewhere I believe could exceed anything in appreciations on NZX plus
a whole heap more & allow opportunity to come back with twice as many empty trucks
at a fraction of the toll later, if opportunity presents itself ;)

Interesting....from a TA prospective HLG is close to being in 'Death Cross' territory....... just saying...... don't hold.

[Balance]

Interesting....from a TA prospective HLG is close to being in 'Death Cross' territory....... just saying...... don't hold.

You can short - take advantage of your TA view?

[Waltzing]

UK is an example of what it might look like when populations start getting some level of vaccines in arms..

by march next year the only chance you have of a 3.50 handle will be if there is a variant for which they have no vaccine and that is unlikely.

if you have been in markets for over 20 odd years like most people with accounting and business backgrounds you will feel as if 1 Year is a month and a decade is a Year.

MR B will tell you this share has been around so long now that a six month view is 6 just to short.

[winner69]

Be great if we get another opportunity like last year to load up on all the companies whose sp were hammered down 60% to 90%!

Hey Balance me ol mate, you not suggesting we should be selling HLG now and buying back when 20%/30% cheaper are you?

Maybe some risk mitigators / profit maximisers have already started down that path …with current price down 10% plus.

[Balance]

Hey Balance me ol mate, you not suggesting we should be selling HLG now and buying back when 20%/30% cheaper are you?

Maybe some risk mitigators / profit maximisers have already started down that path …with current price down 10% plus.

Not at all.

Now if I have Covid sensitive stocks like THL, Air NZ or ATM - I would be selling them with a view to buying back later with the delta lockdown jitters.

[Waltzing]

"delta lockdown jitters"

if lockdowns are initiated the printing machine starts over and the wage hands outs start all over again just like in AUS and online retails just keeps pumping...Looked like Biggest saturday numbers at centre place hamilton since covid started.

NSW situation now described as "Out of Control" and cant be eliminated.

Thats serious and may well hit the share market.

[Balance]

"delta lockdown jitters"

if lockdowns are initiated the printing machine starts over and the wage hands outs start all over again just like in AUS and online retails just keeps pumping...Looked like Biggest saturday numbers at centre place hamilton since covid started.

NSW situation now described as "Out of Control" and cant be eliminated.

Thats serious and may well hit the share market.

Lockdowns would certainly sort out the strong from the weak, the vulnerable from the beneficiaries - and we have the benefit of last year’s lockdown to learn from.

We all know that companies like HLG with a strong online platform continue to perform during lockdowns.

We also know that the fiscal & monetary stimulus which will be pumped into the economy will cushion many industry sectors, housing in particular.

Now if you have shares in a pure hospitality play like Savor, you may indeed need to take action to reduce exposure before a lockdown happens.

[Waltzing]

It was obvious from the start of COVID that the world was going to change and that if you were a person with O2 performance crowds were no longer a place you would want to go.

If you do it might be with a rebreather that filters the AIR.

Clothing retailers that also stock sophisticated fashionable masks should be all the rage.

Your back pack has your disinfectant virus killing spray..from KMD.

[sb9]

Lockdowns would certainly sort out the strong from the weak, the vulnerable from the beneficiaries - and we have the benefit of last year’s lockdown to learn from.

We all know that companies like HLG with a strong online platform continue to perform during lockdowns.

We also know that the fiscal & monetary stimulus which will be pumped into the economy will cushion many industry sectors, housing in particular.

Now if you have shares in a pure hospitality play like Savor, you may indeed need to take action to reduce exposure before a lockdown happens.


Yes, we've evidence from last year that COVID proved to be boon for retailers with great online and digital platform. And all good companies like HLG, Briscoes, WHS and MHJ have pivoted themselves well for any further lockdowns.

[Beagle]

"delta lockdown jitters"

if lockdowns are initiated the printing machine starts over and the wage hands outs start all over again just like in AUS and online retails just keeps pumping...Looked like Biggest saturday numbers at centre place hamilton since covid started.

NSW situation now described as "Out of Control" and cant be eliminated.

Thats serious and may well hit the share market.

7 weeks into the lockdown in NSW and the numbers keep climbing. Hard to know how they're going to stop the spread ?
Totally accept what Balance has said that stimulus kicks in, wage subsidies get pumped into the economy and people will spend online especially with excellent online platform Glassons Australia has but some things are increasingly clear.
1. The delta variant in Australia is not being controlled by current measures and the numbers are expanding. Lockdown fatigue is already very real in Australia. Can they eliminate it and if so how ?
2. Delta and other pending variants of Covid are highly likely to mean its imprudent for Glassons to materially expand its retail footprint in Australia in the foreseeable future...I am thinking several years.
3. There will be a material effect on FY22's earnings from, at best, a lengthy and protracted lockdown in many parts of Australia.
4. Point 2 means the growth rate of Glassons Australia in the foreseeable future will be materially lower than I was previously assuming and this affects any DCF valuation.
5. With the lower growth prospects of Glassons Australia the metrics of WHS become more attractive
6. I'm no fan-boy of Cindy but the go-hard and go-early approach has been vastly more effective than the softly-softly approach of the Australian authorities.
7. HLG is now less likely to be included in the NZX50 anytime soon.
8. Clear break down through 100 day moving average support level cannot be denied.

For what its worth I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

7 weeks into the lockdown in NSW and the numbers keep climbing. Hard to know how they're going to stop the spread ?
Totally accept what Balance has said that stimulus kicks in, wage subsidies get pumped into the economy and people will spend online especially with excellent online platform Glassons Australia has but some things are increasingly clear.
1. The delta variant in Australia is not being controlled by current measures and the numbers are expanding. Lockdown fatigue is already very real in Australia. Can they eliminate it and if so how ?
2. Delta and other pending variants of Covid are highly likely to mean its imprudent for Glassons to materially expand its retail footprint in Australia in the foreseeable future...I am thinking several years.
3. There will be a material effect on FY22's earnings from, at best, a lengthy and protracted lockdown in many parts of Australia.
4. Point 2 means the growth rate of Glassons Australia in the foreseeable future will be materially lower than I was previously assuming and this affects any DCF valuation.
5. With the lower growth prospects of Glassons Australia the metrics of WHS become more attractive
6. I'm no fan-boy of Cindy but the go-hard and go-early approach has been vastly more effective than the softly-softly approach of the Australian authorities.
7. HLG is now less likely to be included in the NZX50 anytime soon.
8. Clear break down through 100 day moving average support level cannot be denied.

I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

I had another use for cash and actually exited HLG a few weeks back - was not at all due to thinking it was a top or expecting any downside (on the contrary was a little disappointed I was exiting at that time).

I think you possibly might be being a tad pessimistic over future OZ expansion plans. Looking around the world in countries where covid is endemic (USA, UK etc) and retail is back to normal for the most part (albeit with some more online than there used to be), so I don’t think long term expansion plans will be put off, though short term (next 12 months) might indeed be all on hold (although might be a good time to get some opportunistic deals on leases etc)

In USA/UK you either had covid or are vaccinated/soon to be vaccinated, and so outside of wearing masks more often retail visits are not being avoided any more. I think in a worse case scenario where covid becomes endemic in Australia, they will end up in the exact same place where retail will be fine.

[Beagle]

Fair comment. For me I see WHS metrics as more compelling and their risk is lower. HLG a fabulous company, very well managed and trading about fair value. I still own a modest parcel.

[Leftfield]

For what its worth I have been reducing in recent weeks and reallocating to WHS which is now my preferred retail investment.

Good on you Beagle, a wise precaution........ FWIW I've also been buying some WHS recently (the only retailer I hold.)

[Waltzing]

RE: Rebalancing by MR B.

Portfolio allocation for HLG was reduced by 50 percent at 6.50 and by a farther 50 of remaining percentage above 7.20.

Allocation 2.5% across 5 portfolios.

The dividend % high probability remains constant over the next 2 years.

SP handle may break down but only to regain previous highs in 2 years time.

What 2 years when the stock has been going this long..

Are holders investors? of course they are.

Stocks for trading are fully valued dividend paying stocks and this longer term is not fully priced but only its not sticky holders have made it a trade.

It not actually a trading stock even though you may have traded it in the past as an investment community.

[Waltzing]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

[winner69]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

Be back above 7 bucks by end of day …or certainly by tomorrow

[Baa_Baa]

Market likes the price and the yield..Volumen up.

Exit volume up. 200 MA breakdown accelerating SP decline. Ignore the chart at your peril.

[Waltzing]

Almost twice daily volumen and its only 2 PM...


<TAG SPH=680;615;580;530;480;380;330 TAG/>

[Balance]

Exit volume up. 200 MA breakdown accelerating SP decline. Ignore the chart at your peril.

Yawn.

Yawn.

[Waltzing]

the software kicked out the average support handles but of course not the probability.

Balance really ... its just hard to scare the veteran legends....

[Waltzing]

HUGE Volumens..

Borders open by xmas ....

Hot summer at the beaches of the antipodes....

[sb9]

HUGE Volumens..

Always good sign when price rises with increasing volume.

[Waltzing]

well vol up for HLG nearly 6 figures!

[winner69]

Be back above 7 bucks by end of day …or certainly by tomorrow

Thought that might happen ….close at 710 …fraction higher than I anticipated

Maybe that good announcement is tomorrow

[Balance]

exit volume up. 200 ma breakdown accelerating sp decline. Ignore the chart at your peril.

yawn

yawn

yawn

YAWN

[Waltzing]

Balance just fell asleep in his rocking chair...

oh well there goes the 5 dollar wheel borrow brigade ....

[Raz]

I had another use for cash and actually exited HLG a few weeks back - was not at all due to thinking it was a top or expecting any downside (on the contrary was a little disappointed I was exiting at that time).

I think you possibly might be being a tad pessimistic over future OZ expansion plans. Looking around the world in countries where covid is endemic (USA, UK etc) and retail is back to normal for the most part (albeit with some more online than there used to be), so I don’t think long term expansion plans will be put off, though short term (next 12 months) might indeed be all on hold (although might be a good time to get some opportunistic deals on leases etc)

In USA/UK you either had covid or are vaccinated/soon to be vaccinated, and so outside of wearing masks more often retail visits are not being avoided any more. I think in a worse case scenario where covid becomes endemic in Australia, they will end up in the exact same place where retail will be fine.

Retail is fine in the US and Europe as so much more online than people can appreciate unless you see/live it, it works with clothes as couriers like UPS provides such timely and diverse distribution channels and retail over there has a strong retail history of allowing returns... This return policy is a key difference to here I suspect so can't directly compare...

Not a bad time to take some off the table....

[iceman]

HUGE Volumens..

Borders open by xmas ....

Hot summer at the beaches of the antipodes....

What World are you in ? Or are you talking about Xmas 2022 ?

[Waltzing]

"What World are you in"

take your pick...

No matter which on line retail will keep the tills working..

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Yesterday saw a break through key resistance of $7, however daily RSI was in oversold conditions. This often sees a false break out, which turned out to be the case. From a long term perspective there are no 'red flags' to the uptrend at this stage.

[Balance]

Yesterday saw a break through key resistance of $7, however daily RSI was in oversold conditions. This often sees a false break out, which turned out to be the case. From a long term perspective there are no 'red flags' to the uptrend at this stage.

Let's wait for the results in the next 2 weeks - will be a very good one imo, reaffirming all the positives which make HLG a compelling investment.

[Beagle]

Let's wait for the results in the next 2 weeks - will be a very good one imo, reaffirming all the positives which make HLG a compelling investment.

I agree regarding FY21 but unfortunately mate, as you know, the market is forward looking and we are staring down the barrel of an almost endless lockdown in Australia. Even with wage subsidies that must have a material effect on FY22 and worse, must seriously curb the desire of directors to expand their retail footprint until this pandemic is well and truly in the rear view mirror, which might not be for years ?

The growth rate of Glassons Australia, which is one of the main things that makes HLG so attractive to me, (who doesn't like a well managed company that is growing nicely selling at a no growth PE ?) has in my opinion been materially impacted for the foreseeable future, (as much as it pains me so much to accept that fact). Also all the speculation of NZX50 inclusion has come to nothing and likely to remain that way for the foreseeable future in my opinion.

I reckon this is just a hold for yield for now as part of a well diversified portfolio. Fair value $7. On the other hand, the WHS chances of NZX50 inclusion in due course look good to me.

[Waltzing]

DIV Yield Net 8 .

Its surprised during the GFC...

whats 2 years in the history of this stock.


Hold for DIV at 8 Net is a pretty good result and expect them to be very conservative with guideance.

A sell off may come but its just a long term buying opportunity to be waited for.

[Beagle]

I think in calendar year 2021 they can pay somewhere near 50 cents per share fully imputed but they may hold some of that back now in the circumstances, (which would appear to be prudent).
Suppose its another 23 cents in December for a total for 2021 of 46 cps. On $7 that's a net yield of 46/700 = 6.57% and a gross yield of 6.57 / 0.72 = 9.13%. Seems pretty good but whether it can be maintained next year I am not so sure any more ? It just keeps on growing and growing and...I am not sure they can eliminate it now ? Whatever the fine details and nuances of what they define as a lockdown are ?, its clear it isn't working.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-australia-update-nsw-reports-390-new-community-cases-two-deaths/PUSSDBEQWN6RS4XO3RALKAIVOM/

[Rawz]

Don't think there is any appetite to try eliminate it over there. Just live with it like the rest of the world.

9.13% gross yield quite attractive

[iceman]

Don't think there is any appetite to try eliminate it over there. Just live with it like the rest of the world.

9.13% gross yield quite attractive

Agreed. It is a fallacy to believe any country can eliminate this virus in the foreseeable future

[Beagle]

Don't think there is any appetite to try eliminate it over there. Just live with it like the rest of the world.

9.13% gross yield quite attractive

Very attractive if its sustainable going forward.

[Waltzing]

yes stand correct by MR B, missed the delayed payment being in the year and accidently added it on..re checked the dates.

The odd payment dates of April December.

Now only hold 1.2 or even less % , we sold down on the highs as usual, 2nd time.

Are we going to get a 3rd.

[sampson]

we sold down on the highs as usual.

Doesn't everyone on the internet. Enjoy your riches.

[couta1]

Doesn't everyone on the internet. Enjoy your riches. Yep should be called back slappers anonymous or ego strokers club. Lol

[winner69]

The high for this cycle was $7.85

Down 11% from that cyclical high

Suppose baabaa’s rounded top looking more obvious now.

[oldtech]

couta1!!! Where have you been??!! Good to see you back ...

[carrom74]

Welcome back Couta.Should see you more on the A2 thread eh…( I guess) may be after 26th Aug 🙌

[RupertBear]

Yes Welcome back Couta! Its great to have you back posting :)

[Waltzing]

"The high for this cycle was $7.85"

we did not get that high....

lucky ones who did ..

the situation in AUS will have to get a lot worse for a big cut to the div...

[alokdhir]

"The high for this cycle was $7.85"

we did not get that high....

lucky ones who did ..

the situation in AUS will have to get a lot worse for a big cut to the div...



Wait for it ....U will get it if u wait long enough ...

[Waltzing]

".U will get it"

positive thinking in a difficult time..

Yes another 12 months time and that can just fly past as did the last 16 months and the view of the future in retail might be quite different with growth back on the radar.

[winner69]

Might get an update this week and an idea of full year profit

Beagle has mentioned something like 36m/37m while i've said closer to 40m

Hoping like hell that F21 profit in excess of 32m --- if not it means last six months profit same or less than last year --- when we were in depths of lockdown

[winner69]

JB HiFi sales have been booming over the last year or so

But in Australia over last 6 weeks they are down 15% as the de facto lockdowns bite

Wonder how Glassons are going?

[Waltzing]

Different types of products? Try and return of TV's bit different than jeans, T shirts and swim wear.

[winner69]

Different types of products? Try and return of TV's bit different than jeans, T shirts and swim wear.

The message was ‘consumer spend is down’ …..and no doubt sales of clothes are down as well

[Beagle]

Different types of products? Try and return of TV's bit different than jeans, T shirts and swim wear.

I never really cared what I wore during lockdown here last year...anything comfortable would do. I don't think all that many people update their wardrobe during lockdown but maybe Women do ?

[Waltzing]

Fashion is a 24/7 industry....

Fashion shows on TT... its always time for home fashion shoppers to show off purchases and makeup styles on TT...

Lock downs are the perfect time to undertake the big jobs of sorting out your fashion wear for the coming summer..

when the storm clouds clear the shoppers will be out in force again with a new shopping list.

[Filthy]

I never really cared what I wore during lockdown here last year...anything comfortable would do. I don't think all that many people update their wardrobe during lockdown but maybe Women do ?

Yes, boredom sets in... = loads of scrolling through items online and buying stuff. my wife bought heaps of new outfits, sent some stuff back, bought more stuff etc. great way to pass the time!

[Beagle]

Yes, boredom sets in... = loads of scrolling through items online and buying stuff. my wife bought heaps of new outfits, sent some stuff back, bought more stuff etc. great way to pass the time!

I didn't see Mrs B engaging in any such folly during lockdown. Maybe she's a special hound ? Has to have very special tolerance capabilities to put up with an old cantankerous mutt like me lol

[Waltzing]

Glasson demographic is the TT generation.

[Beagle]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-478-local-cases-victoria-records-22/Q3ENCZVUF7LNYFE2SP33NHYD6E/

Almost given up on any chance of elimination ?
What are the implications for HLG and other listed retailers with an extensive branch network there like Michael Hill ?

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-nsw-records-478-local-cases-victoria-records-22/Q3ENCZVUF7LNYFE2SP33NHYD6E/

Almost given up on any chance of elimination ?
What are the implications for HLG and other listed retailers with an extensive branch network there like Michael Hill ?

They will be impacted just like they were last year.

Post lockdown, sales will boom.

[Waltzing]

Marshal law light..

certainly means next few months might see a chance to pick up HLG lower...how much lower will depend on the stats as everyone knows.

Assuming everyone's models allow for cash ups and rebalancing with cash on hand for opportunities over the next period out to end of March.

AUSSI closed till xmas then.

[Beat the Bank]

During last years lockdown there was an explosion in both mens and women's casual, ie comfy wear. Hopefully they are due for replacement and of coarse there is extra time to let the fingers do the walking on line. Meanwhile let's not forget the New Zealand business.

[Beagle]

They will be impacted just like they were last year.

Post lockdown, sales will boom.

I'm not so sure mate. They beat the normal Covid variant last year. 8 weeks into lockdowns this time and the Delta variant continues to spread faster. I think this could last for many more months which would make it much longer than last year. The other thing this time is serious lockdown fatigue. I think many people are over lockdowns and many more think Delta can't be stopped so the propensity towards rule breaking will grow ever higher as really severe fatigue sets in.

Listening to one Australian journalist the other day a lot of people are feeling really despondent and its really taking a toll on people's mental health now.
Maybe that leads to even more Women shopping online at Glassons ? I don't know. Good that two thirds of group sales are in good ol New Zealand. We sure live in interesting times !

[Waltzing]

bets on sub 6 before xmas ?

definitely increase holdings.

The fines in AUS and light marshal law in NSW will jolt a few people.

Wonder if anyone will actually pay...i doubt it.

How do you enforce it without court action and they will all have to handed over to debt collectors.

[Beagle]

Too tough to call but the sales update for FY22 at the annual meeting will be interesting. How resilient this is to the protracted Australian lockdown will determine its short term share price performance. I have taken my holding down even further as I believe the risks are weighted to the downside in the next few months.

[James108]

One thing we have learnt recently is that the effects of lock downs are likely short term only (May even be net positive). Therefore the impact on share price should really be no more than one years earnings, say 30 cps. If it was worth $7.30, should be worth $7.00 now. Not saying it was worth $7.30 before but I think the reaction to Australian lockdowns is about right as is.

[Waltzing]

If holders panic again like they often do than some silly prices might turn up. It will pay to keep a very careful eye out just like WHS wobbled for a moment today and the crowd jumped in...

the SHAZ will be waiting just like they did with AIR.

The real play was MFT it could have made some Million dollar profits for some.

" reaction to Australian lockdowns is about right as is."

Think the comment is right but heres hoping.

NSW number hit over 400 today and thats a wild fire starting unless the lock down is killing it off.

Staff at " St George Hospital oncology ward " have tested postive.

We will know soon enough.

[Rawz]

If you zero out a years profit in a DCF model your intrinsic value should max drop by 10%

These lockdowns wont zero out HLG profit..

Be interesting to see where SP goes. Could get some cheap HLG shares as the rolling lockdowns drag on and some nerves set into the SP

[Waltzing]

Dont under estimate how hardened the investors have become to war zone conditions..

Look how many NZ'ers leap into getting mortgages at low rates.

The Locals arnt as scared as you might think.

Even a 5 to 10 percent pull back on the S&P might not dent it much but the low vol could cause a brief opportunity.

[Beagle]

One thing we have learnt recently is that the effects of lock downs are likely short term only (May even be net positive). Therefore the impact on share price should really be no more than one years earnings, say 30 cps. If it was worth $7.30, should be worth $7.00 now. Not saying it was worth $7.30 before but I think the reaction to Australian lockdowns is about right as is.


If you zero out a years profit in a DCF model your intrinsic value should max drop by 10%

These lockdowns wont zero out HLG profit..

Be interesting to see where SP goes. Could get some cheap HLG shares as the rolling lockdowns drag on and some nerves set into the SP

Don't disagree with that on a stand alone analysis guys but the imprudence of expanding Glassons Australia retail footprint for the foreseeable future (until this pandemic really is in the rear view mirror) now seems crystal clear and means Glassons growth there is likely to slow, compared to how it would have otherwise been, which also affects the DCF as well. The Australian growth was arguably the key attraction with HLG, certainly as far as I am concerned, its most attractive feature, (aside from the dividend yield).
Only time will tell how this plays out...

[Ferg]

Hey Beagle

Interesting thoughts. If Australian retail is suffering some short term pain (or is about to) and one takes a very long forward view as one should with HLG, is this not a good time to get into retail property and/or leases assuming the yields and rents are lower than average, or are about to be? Assuming the price is right of course.....

Just a thought
Ferg

[Beagle]

Hey mate,

Always enjoy reading your thoughts. The old saying of its always darkest before dawn springs readily to mind but I don't think the early birds are going to start tweeting anytime really soon.

[dreamcatcher]

The most recent target from the Australian government is in its Operation Covid Shield document, which suggests vaccinating 80% of the population aged 16 and over should be possible by December (https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/aug/04/updated-national-plan-suggests-80-of-australians-could-be-fully-vaccinated-by-end-of-2021) extended from previous estimate October, Recent news items suggests huge numbers which saw another daily record set with 270,000 doses administered.

if HLG had plans for expansion in Australian probably still happening as December not far away.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/datablog/ng-interactive/2021/aug/16/covid-19-vaccine-rollout-australia-vaccination-rate-progress-how-many-people-vaccinated-percent-tracker-australian-states-number-total-daily-live-data-stats-updates-news-schedule-tracking-chart-percentage-new-cases-today

[James108]

Don't disagree with that on a stand alone analysis guys but the imprudence of expanding Glassons Australia retail footprint for the foreseeable future (until this pandemic really is in the rear view mirror) now seems crystal clear and means Glassons growth there is likely to slow, compared to how it would have otherwise been, which also affects the DCF as well. The Australian growth was arguably the key attraction with HLG, certainly as far as I am concerned, its most attractive feature, (aside from the dividend yield).
Only time will tell how this plays out...

That is where we disagree. I think store roll out will be set back maybe 6 months, and afterwards will continue to be relatively glacial, which is fine by me. Have been happy with the slow and steady store roll out in Aus.

[Getty]

Story in Todays NZ Herald,

Ezibuy tumbles to big financial loss.

If they are struggling with just 5 retail stores, but the rest of business long established on line, which other fashion/ retailers are doing it hard?

[LaserEyeKiwi]

That is where we disagree. I think store roll out will be set back maybe 6 months, and afterwards will continue to be relatively glacial, which is fine by me. Have been happy with the slow and steady store roll out in Aus.

it’s an interesting debate: should retail expansion be paused due to what is undoubtedly a short term event? regardless of the end result of covid, retail will fully reopen again relatively soon, and it’s likely that domestic consumer spending remains elevated as overseas travel budgets are redirected to other domestic discretionary spend.

Good management would keep its eye focused on long term goals, while making prudent short term decisions towards that goal. I would argue that one of those short term decisions should be seeking some opportunistic long term leasing opportunities in good locations at significantly reduced rates (if those deals are offered).

[850man]

Story in Todays NZ Herald,

Ezibuy tumbles to big financial loss.

If they are struggling with just 5 retail stores, but the rest of business long established on line, which other fashion/ retailers are doing it hard?

The article states "The most recent accounts posted to the New Zealand Companies Office show Ezibuy recorded a $28.9 million loss for the year to June 2020 with revenue falling to $129.3m from the previous year's $152.7m. The company, whose head office is still based in Palmerston North, booked a $10.5m loss in 2019. In its audit report EY noted a material uncertainty casting doubt on the group's ability to continue as a going concern. This related to Ezibuy's total liabilities exceeding its total assets by $13.4m. The accounts show total liabilities increased from $48.4m to $67.13m in 2020."

Mounting losses since 2019 at least plus an increase in liabilities. Seems factors other than Covid are the root cause here

[BlackPeter]

it’s an interesting debate: should retail expansion be paused due to what is undoubtedly a short term event? regardless of the end result of covid, retail will fully reopen again relatively soon, and it’s likely that domestic consumer spending remains elevated as overseas travel budgets are redirected to other domestic discretionary spend.

Good management would keep its eye focused on long term goals, while making prudent short term decisions towards that goal. I would argue that one of those short term decisions should be seeking some opportunistic long term leasing opportunities in good locations at significantly reduced rates (if those deals are offered).

Are you sure it is "undoubtedly" a short term event? I do have my doubts, if I may. Covid won't go away for a long time and I don't see anybody who would be able to predict with any accuracy how this game will play out.

Uncertainty, though is not a good base for making investments ...

[Balance]

Are you sure it is "undoubtedly" a short term event? I do have my doubts, if I may. Covid won't go away for a long time and I don't see anybody who would be able to predict with any accuracy how this game will play out.

Uncertainty, though is not a good base for making investments ...

On the contrary!

Uncertainty is the best time for seasoned and experienced investors to make investments.

[Beagle]

Good debate, sharetrader at its finest. No question about the caliber of management and their experience but they have never come up against a mutating virus like Covid before. No doubt there will be better lease deals available but whether the incentive is enough in the circumstances is quite another matter.

I like the very careful way they've gone about their retail expansion in Australia in recent years and its exactly that prudence that suggests to me that they'll be even more conservative going forward, especially given online growth...time will tell.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Are you sure it is "undoubtedly" a short term event? I do have my doubts, if I may. Covid won't go away for a long time and I don't see anybody who would be able to predict with any accuracy how this game will play out.

Uncertainty, though is not a good base for making investments ...

I was referring to the end of lockdowns in Australia as the “undoubted” event. Whether it’s due to covid elimination (like NZ), or vaccination rate hitting milestone with endemic covid (like USA/UK etc) - retail stores will all reopen in Australia with either outcome.

Worst case outcome is we see a much deadlier strain arrive which is also resistant to the deployed vaccine. But actually in that scenario it is a pretty good bet that a level 4-type lockdown is heavily enforced and they achieve elimination again (which is what the idiots in NSW should have done 6 weeks ago)

[winner69]

Good debate, sharetrader at its finest. No question about the caliber of management and their experience but they have never come up against a mutating virus like Covid before.

I like the very careful way they've gone about their retail footprint expansion in Australia in recent years and its exactly that prudence that suggest to me that they'll be even more conservative going forward...time will tell.

They survived the 1918 pandemic - about 9000 others didn't

and that was after they had shown resilience through a 4 year war

[Beagle]

They survived the 1918 pandemic - about 9000 others didn't

and that was after they had shown resilience through a 4 year war

Yes you're referring to Hallensteins fantastic history which is without doubt outstanding. I don't think anyone is questioning their ability to survive, the question is in the current and foreseeable environment whether they can thrive and still grow or are we ostensibly in a no growth environment in the short term ?

[Balance]

Yes you're referring to Hallensteins fantastic history which is without doubt outstanding. I don't think anyone is questioning their ability to survive, the question is in the current and foreseeable environment whether they can thrive and still grow ?

They will, based upon their track record.

As for other retailers, we have seen a few stumble and fall already because they could not foot it in the last 17 months. Speaks volume about the retailers who thrived over the same period.

Have a look at PGW - there were all kind of doom and gloom about their prospects after they sold the seeds business but some of us bought in based upon PGW's track record of meeting adversity over decades and surviving.

[BlackPeter]

On the contrary!

Uncertainty is the best time for seasoned and experienced investors to make investments.

Only if they are more certain about the outcome than the market is ;) - and if they prove to be right in hindsight.

But hey - this would not be uncertainty, wouldn't it?

[Balance]

Only if they are more certain about the outcome than the market is ;) - and if they prove to be right in hindsight.

But hey - this would not be uncertainty, wouldn't it?

There are some of us who bought the market up large last year in the face of all the uncertainties, and the doom & gloom.

In fact, I still hold some of those shares .

We have been proven right - now is that hindsight or foresight?

[Getty]

$6.81 now.

$226k to sell $7 or less, $22k to buy more than $6.50.

Will they turn out to be rag traders, cat walkers, or carpet baggers?

[BlackPeter]

There are some of us who bought the market up large last year in the face of all the uncertainties, and the doom & gloom.

In fact, I still hold some of those shares .

We have been proven right - now is that hindsight or foresight?

All of us are from time to time right, aren't we? And yes, the people who make their living either from trading or investment (as I do) are better more often right than they are wrong. However - only the honest of us are as well from time to time wrong.

We all know you love the bragging, but which group of people do you belong to :p ?

Apart from that - during the Covid trough last year you could buy basically any share and make good money. No reason to get excited ...

[Balance]

All of us are from time to time right, aren't we? And yes, the people who make their living either from trading or investment (as I do) are better more often right than they are wrong. However - only the honest of us are as well from time to time wrong.

We all know you love the bragging, but which group of people do you belong to :p ?

Apart from that - during the Covid trough last year you could buy basically any share and make good money. No reason to get excited ...

Oh, I have been wrong and happy to share my experiences of when I have been wrong.

As for buying any stock last year and make good money, you could not be more wrong! And you are definitely using hindsight there 100% but is still wrong!

Try ATM (top pick by brokers and quite a number of STraders) for one and SKT for two. Then, there's NZK and SAN. Shall we continue?

Also, I know quite a number of investors who steered completely clear of the market and are still sitting on cash, wondering what happened.

So hindsight or foresight with those who braved the uncertainties last year and invested?

[BlackPeter]

Oh, I have been wrong and happy to share my experiences of when I have been wrong.

As for buying any stock last year and make good money, you could not be more wrong!

Try ATM (top pick by brokers and quite a number of STraders) and SKT for two.

Also, I know quite a number of investors who steered completely clear of the market and are still sitting on cash, wondering what happened.

So hindsight or foresight?

Jeez - I said basically all - not all. Of course - their are always duds around ... and sure, some people love to buy them. I think we had been quite in harmony at that stage in our views about the status of the ATM shares, haven't we?

I bought last year in March a nice package of MFT shares at sales prices ... and am not at all worried that I didn't buy HLG instead. Given the outcome I should invest more time in bragging than you do, but this would be childish, wouldn't it?

It appears though your ego clearly needs the strokes ... so: Well done balance, good balance ... you did show so much foresight :); - or maybe it was just luck :scared:?

[Biscuit]

She's in a bit of free-fall at the moment.

[Balance]

Jeez - I said basically all - not all. Of course - their are always duds around ... and sure, some people love to buy them. I think we had been quite in harmony at that stage in our views about the status of the ATM shares, haven't we?

I bought last year in March a nice package of MFT shares at sales prices ... and am not at all worried that I didn't buy HLG instead. Given the outcome I should invest more time in bragging than you do, but this would be childish, wouldn't it?

It appears though your ego clearly needs the strokes ... so: Well done balance, good balance ... you did show so much foresight :); - or maybe it was just luck :scared:?

Thanks.

I see you are indeed 'always learning'.

Compliment taken and I am glad you are man enough to admit it.

As for luck, we all could and do need it from time to time - so I will take that as well.

[Balance]

She's in a bit of free-fall at the moment.

Good.

An excellent shakeout before the results.

[Playa]

still low volume

[winner69]

She's in a bit of free-fall at the moment.

Baabaas rounded top and then the down hill slide ….y

[Biscuit]

Baabaas rounded top and then the down hill slide ….y

maybe now a wee bounce....

[winner69]

maybe now a wee bounce....

As long as we don’t get an abandoned baby on the chart

[winner69]

Covid in Auckland …hope not too bad and no lockdown

[Balance]

Covid in Auckland …hope not too bad and no lockdown

Good.

High time one got through so that NZers see through the sham which this government puts forward as adequate border control.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Good.

High time one got through so that NZers see through the sham which this government puts forward as adequate border control.

Thats a really dumb thing to be hoping for.

[Biscuit]

Covid in Auckland …hope not too bad and no lockdown


If its covid and not linked to MIQ or border, then lockdown for certain

[Count von Count]

Good.

High time one got through so that NZers see through the sham which this government puts forward as adequate border control.

Hmmm... lets paraphrase:

"I hope <<outcome happens>> so that everyone can see how <<hopeless / awesome>> my <<favourite / least favourite>> <<political party / politician / civic leader>> is (or isn't)."

Let's export this style of political discourse back the the US.

[Count von Count]

If its covid and not linked to MIQ or border, then lockdown for certain

I think much will depend on the results of the wastewater monitoring in Auckland. Which we know nothing about.

[850man]

I think much will depend on the results of the wastewater monitoring in Auckland. Which we know nothing about.

Might not be far away based on this https://covid19.govt.nz/alert-levels-and-updates/latest-updates/health-officials-are-investigating-1-new-case-of-covid-19-in-the-community/

[Waltzing]

got to go level 3 if its out and about... may be level 4 for auckland or same as wellington.


They dont have the Lux of time with this new variant.

SP should take another small hit.

[causecelebre]

Hmmm... lets paraphrase:

"I hope <<outcome happens>> so that everyone can see how <<hopeless / awesome>> my <<favourite / least favourite>> <<political party / politician / civic leader>> is (or isn't)."

Let's export this style of political discourse back the the US.

Well said.

[bull....]

the chart has been savaged ....... way back in the thread BGR VRS HLG i said BGR was the clear winner.

anyway in recent news

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists reported that national household credit and debit card spending for the week ended August 13, 2021 “showed a 5 percentage point drop in spending growth from the previous week

JB Hi-Fi delivered its eighth consecutive year of record profit growth in financial year 2021. However, the electronics retailer warned that same-store sales are down 15 per cent so far in July and August due to the closure of 55 stores because of lockdowns.

https://thebull.com.au/consumer-inflation-expectations-hit-26-month-high-1127-am/

obviously not a good time at the moment to be a retailer in AUS

[couta1]

the chart has been savaged ....... way back in the thread BGR VRS HLG i said BGR was the clear winner.

anyway in recent news

Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Group economists reported that national household credit and debit card spending for the week ended August 13, 2021 “showed a 5 percentage point drop in spending growth from the previous week

JB Hi-Fi delivered its eighth consecutive year of record profit growth in financial year 2021. However, the electronics retailer warned that same-store sales are down 15 per cent so far in July and August due to the closure of 55 stores because of lockdowns.

https://thebull.com.au/consumer-inflation-expectations-hit-26-month-high-1127-am/

obviously not a good time at the moment to be a retailer in AUS Hmm bull getting negative on HLG again, thats a signal to start thinking about when to start pulling the buy trigger. Lol

[bull....]

Hmm bull getting negative on HLG again, thats a signal to start thinking about when to start pulling the buy trigger. Lol

hardly , but i think you should support your stock by buying online some new undies , they should arrive just in time for your a2 announcement. ( just in case you sh..t yourself )

[850man]

hardly , but i think you should support your stock by buying online some new undies , they should arrive just in time for your a2 announcement. ( just in case you sh..t yourself )

With the immediate lack of toilet paper in supermarkets, has to flow on to a run on new underwear - go HLG!

[see weed]

hardly , but i think you should support your stock by buying online some new undies , they should arrive just in time for your a2 announcement. ( just in case you sh..t yourself )
I been sh..ting myself with a2 for last 5 years up and down coaster. Topped up on a2 yesterday morning just before the drop:(. Am expecting HLG results in next short while, maybe days. Hopefully another good div to go with it. Beagle what's Hlg yield at the moment 10%?;)

[Snow Leopard]

....Am expecting HLG results in next short while, maybe days. Hopefully another good div to go with it....

HLG FY ends July. Results in September.

Maybe guidance before then: Not claiming subsidies or paying dividend.

[BlackPeter]

Hmm bull getting negative on HLG again, thats a signal to start thinking about when to start pulling the buy trigger. Lol

True, but then - bull can be negative on a stock for a long time ... and unfortunately, he often has a point.

[Beagle]

With the immediate lack of toilet paper in supermarkets, has to flow on to a run on new underwear - go HLG!

LOL a bit of good humor goes a long way in lockdown :)


I been sh..ting myself with a2 for last 5 years up and down coaster. Topped up on a2 yesterday morning just before the drop:(. Am expecting HLG results in next short while, maybe days. Hopefully another good div to go with it. Beagle what's Hlg yield at the moment 10%?;)
One good thing about HLG is they know how to apply for Govt wage subsidies and are adept at batting away criticism. FY21 is done and dusted and I think it will have been a solid year so should result in a final dividend of 20-25 cents which makes for about 45 cents for the year. 45 / 0.72 = 62.5 cps gross so on $6.50 that's about 9.6% which is great.

What's far less clear is what dividend they are capable of paying in FY22 ? My guess, and that's all it is, is it will be less than 45 cents per share. How much less ?, I don't know.

[couta1]

hardly , but i think you should support your stock by buying online some new undies , they should arrive just in time for your a2 announcement. ( just in case you sh..t yourself ) After the year I've had i wont be needing those new undies, after surviving a 7 figure loss and coming out smiling on the other side it would take a lot to rattle me going forward.

[Balance]

After the year I've had i wont be needing those new undies, after surviving a 7 figure loss and coming out smiling on the other side it would take a lot to rattle me going forward.

Well done, couta1. Glad you made it!

[850man]

LOL a bit of good humor goes a long way in lockdown :)


One good thing about HLG is they know how to apply for Govt wage subsidies and are adept at batting away criticism. FY21 is done and dusted and I think it will have been a solid year so should result in a final dividend of 20-25 cents which makes for about 45 cents for the year. 45 / 0.72 = 62.5 cps gross so on $6.50 that's about 9.6% which is great.

What's far less clear is what dividend they are capable of paying in FY22 ? My guess, and that's all it is, is it will be less than 45 cents per share. How much less ?, I don't know.

Been mulling over the wage subsidy situation and the whether or not a company should claim it. I came to the position that it is the government that is telling the company to close their shops but that they need to keep paying those working in them. It is not the company making that call, they are being required to do it. On that basis they should accept the wage subsidy as compensation but only for staff who are now being paid but not working at all. They should do this regardless of how profitable they are as the requirement to close shops is not a matter of whether they run a good business or not, it's an edict from the government.

[Balance]

Hmm bull getting negative on HLG again, thats a signal to start thinking about when to start pulling the buy trigger. Lol

Worked again!

bull rang the bell this morning!

[Biscuit]

Worked again!

bull rang the bell this morning!

Sure leapt up this arvo. Tempted to sell this morning's buys but I did that after yesterdays bump and after brokerage and tax there was only enough left for a couple of bottles of wine so I think I'll hold on. I reckon the lock-down could be good for HLG in the longer term. They good enough to navigate it perhaps better than the competition?

[Waltzing]

stunning price performance today.

no one selling much then.

[Biscuit]

stunning price performance today.

no one selling much then.

They back up to near $7, should be a bit of resistance there and everyone be selling tomorrow.

[bull....]

After the year I've had i wont be needing those new undies, after surviving a 7 figure loss and coming out smiling on the other side it would take a lot to rattle me going forward.

maybe a little less % of the portfolio in one stock will help :) glad it worked out for you

[allfromacell]

I see glassons are doing a 20% off everything promotion to get the lockdown spending started. Hopefully it works.

[Biscuit]

They back up to near $7, should be a bit of resistance there and everyone be selling tomorrow.


And sure enough, they are back into free-fall.

[RTM]

And sure enough, they are back into free-fall.

No volume tho.

[Balance]

And sure enough, they are back into free-fall.

Look at the volume on the way down vs volume on the way up - that's your best guide as to what is going to happen when the results come out.

[Waltzing]

"volume on the way down vs volume on the way up"

waiting for sub 6?

[Biscuit]

Look at the volume on the way down vs volume on the way up - that's your best guide as to what is going to happen when the results come out.

I agree there is some accumulation going on at this level and "free-fall" not quite the right word.

[Balance]

I agree there is some accumulation going on at this level and "free-fall" not quite the right word.

The accumulators showed their hands yesterday - let the sp fall on small volume, let the offers build up volume and then, they mopped up everything in sight.

Seen it all before.

[BlackPeter]

I agree there is some accumulation going on at this level and "free-fall" not quite the right word.

Still might justify some careful monitoring. Share price for the last 4 days below (E)MA200, which in anybody's book is a quite powerful indicator for a downtrend. For the sake of the current shareholders they better don't make a habit out of that.

[Balance]

Still might justify some careful monitoring. Share price for the last 4 days below (E)MA200, which in anybody's book is a quite powerful indicator for a downtrend. For the sake of the current shareholders they better don't make a habit out of that.

Using TA on a stock like HLG is like using Christchurch weather forecast to predict Auckland’s weather.

[Biscuit]

The accumulators showed their hands yesterday - let the sp fall on small volume, let the offers build up volume and then, they mopped up everything in sight.

Seen it all before.

Yeah, some of that was me!

[CrustyPlums]

How ya doing everyone? First post for me. I have been reading this forum for a while, but it took me a long time to get verified and account set up.
I for one am very happy with HLG and have held it and continued to reinvested dividends. For me I think getting in and grabbing a few more under the $7 mark somewhere is not a horrible option.

[winner69]

Besides telling us stores are closing left right and centre there's been no financial stuff

NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS I reckon

[nztx]

Besides telling us stores are closing left right and centre there's been no financial stuff

NO NEWS IS GOOD NEWS I reckon


July 21 half year could be good .. as for looking past that - expect cloudy, dependent on what transpires
here & what Aussie fortunes look like - discounted by online tradings .. ;)

[Old mate]

Sydney just locked down for another month after doing two months already.

[invest]

I expect online sales to be strong over the lockdown period, consistent with what happened last year.
HLG is dominant in their niche and becoming more "cool" - which is important given their target market.

[Lescy]

From a consumer point of view - I have 2 teenage girls who are seriously in love with the store - always find plenty to buy with Glassons seeming to know how to hit the right fashion and price spot. Our boy is just hitting his teen years and loving the Hallensteins offerings for the same reason. The other teen clothing stores just don't seem to cut it for them or their mates. Definitely fit into the 'cool' box. However, I remember that Pumpkin Patch was definitely the 'cool' place to shop but that didn't work out so well.

[Balance]

Share price on the move again.

Update could be due any day now if last year is a guide.

Expecting a spectacular result with online sales continuing to grow and cushion lockdown impact on sales.

[Waltzing]

Moving on Up ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHOVJINRD8

[Balance]

Moving on Up ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zkHOVJINRD8

Small volume as per usual but the way the buyer is prepared to pay up to get stock suggests the results will be an excellent one.

Watch for the online sales numbers.

[invest]

12886I've been tracking engagement on the Glassons instagram page. With 657K followers, this was posted 3 hours ago, and already garnered 31k views. and 11.5k comments. yes 11,500 comments. which is insane for a retail brand - this is Kim Kadarshian level engagement, which is a key reason I remain bullish - the key with this segment is to remain cool and brand being on-message.

[Balance]

12886I've been tracking engagement on the Glassons instagram page. With 657K followers, this was posted 3 hours ago, and already garnered 31k views. and 11.5k comments. yes 11,500 comments. which is insane for a retail brand - this is Kim Kadarshian level engagement, which is a key reason I remain bullish - the key with this segment is to remain cool and brand being on-message.

Yup - all those concerned about the lockdown impact on HLG have tended to ignore how well HLG has set up its online platform.

Sp continuing to regain ground ahead of results.

Can't wait for the big juicy dividend on the way!

[Cyclical]

Yup - all those concerned about the lockdown impact on HLG have tended to ignore how well HLG has set up its online platform.

Sp continuing to regain ground ahead of results.

Can't wait for the big juicy dividend on the way!

Hope so, but they might adopt a conservative approach to the divvy under the circumstances, partly depending on their stance to wage subsidies this time round...apologies if this has been discussed on previous pages, I haven't looked back. I guess they are still sitting on a mountain of cash but.

[Balance]

Hope so, but they might adopt a conservative approach to the divvy under the circumstances, partly depending on their stance to wage subsidies this time round...apologies if this has been discussed on previous pages, I haven't looked back. I guess they are still sitting on a mountain of cash but.

Heaps of cash.

[winner69]

Heaps of cash.

No balance - a mountain of cash

[Balance]

No balance - a mountain of cash

Haha - trust you to pick the right description again!

[winner69]

From Stats NZ Retail Trade data for JUne quarter inflation in the clothing sector is currently running at 5%/6%

That's good - more cash through the tills for each item sold

And more for shareholders to sahre at the end of the year

[RTM]

From Stats NZ Retail Trade data for JUne quarter inflation in the clothing sector is currently running at 5%/6%

That's good - more cash through the tills for each item sold

And more for shareholders to sahre at the end of the year

So you don't think supply issues, freight etc. will have pushed up their costs by a similar amount Winner ?

[winner69]

So you don't think supply issues, freight etc. will have pushed up their costs by a similar amount Winner ?

I have complete faith in HLG’s management to improve margin even with these challenges

Top notch team

[Beagle]

I have complete faith in HLG’s management to improve margin even with these challenges

Top notch team

Agreed. Currently trading around fair value but an excellent hold for yield, is how I see it.

[Ferg]

What I am observing with clients is import cost savings due to the high Kiwi dollar are being more than offset by higher commodity, domestic and freight costs. Costs higher than forecast are being recovered by passing on price rises to customers and/or reducing discounts. Yes there might be some short term margin pressure at the likes of HLG, but I too have faith they are well qualified to deal with whatever comes their way. Margins were already under slight pressure with the last release. On a side note, man oh man I prefer the US system where they have quarterly releases......6 monthly reporting in NZ feels glacial in comparison.

[Beagle]

What I am observing with clients is import cost savings due to the high Kiwi dollar are being more than offset by higher commodity, domestic and freight costs. Costs higher than forecast are being recovered by passing on price rises to customers and/or reducing discounts. Yes there might be some short term margin pressure at the likes of HLG, but I too have faith they are well qualified to deal with whatever comes their way. Margins were already under slight pressure with the last release. On a side note, man oh man I prefer the US system where they have quarterly releases......6 monthly reporting in NZ feels glacial in comparison.

Couldn't agree more and you would think with modern computerized accounting systems it wouldn't be too odious to report quarterly.

[Ferg]

Couldn't agree more and you would think with modern computerized accounting systems it wouldn't be too odious to report quarterly.

Agreed. Having been on the other side of US quarterly reporting, many moons ago, it was a right PITA. The deadlines were horrendous and time zones & statutory holidays mean nothing to US companies. One downside (or upside?) of quarterly reporting is the smoothing / massaging of results to avoid surprises e.g. as we see with Heartland. The other issue is Management become unduly focussed on quarterly results as opposed to executing strategy. But all that aside and speaking as a shareholder, I love quarterly reporting.

[Beagle]

Intersting article on this. https://www.raconteur.net/quarterly-reporting-short-termism/

[nztx]

Couldn't agree more and you would think with modern computerized accounting systems it wouldn't be too odious to report quarterly.


The Board & Management of most if not all listed companies probably get to see quarterlies (if not monthly reports)
for any listed company of any significance - whether NZX could cope with a myriad of quarterlies (past mining
reporting currently) could be another matter .. ;)

[winner69]

I’m sure HLG leaders are adopting a strategic approach to pricing actions that will significantly minimize margin leakage during challenging times

It will put them on a path towards pricing excellence, allowing them to recover cost increases and minimize negative impacts to financial performance in a responsible, transparent, and customer-centric manner.

The real benefit of a strategic approach is that it generally leads to enduring gains …..a lot better than a reactive cost plus way of thinking.

[Ferg]

winner - are you on the HLG PR payroll? :) A PR person could not have worded that better.

nztx - I would be surprised if both Board and Management did NOT see monthly financials. To not do that would be akin to being asleep at the wheel and IMO reckless. In my experience such financial reporting is the norm. In addition, in large organisations where it is hard to get your arms around the entire business, they typically distill their numbers down to daily and/or weekly KPIs - usually $ sales and/or volume metrics. It all starts and ends with sales and would typically be e-mailed out daily by company analysts before the first coffee of the day.

[bull....]

if anyone wants to be reminded why HLG is doing so poorly last mth 3% down compared to bgr up 15% for the mth and whs 9% up for the mth its because hlg is in aus and that market is getting hammered just today retail sales data in aus shows in july clothing sales are down 15%. the smart money went to bgr and whs its not to late in my opinion to board the winners.

[Balance]

if anyone wants to be reminded why HLG is doing so poorly last mth 3% down compared to bgr up 15% for the mth and whs 9% up for the mth its because hlg is in aus and that market is getting hammered just today retail sales data in aus shows in july clothing sales are down 15%. the smart money went to bgr and whs its not to late in my opinion to board the winners.

What has happened with your trading position in ATM from 2 days ago?

[bull....]

What has happened with your trading position in ATM from 2 days ago?

nothing like a good gamble on a surprise

[Beagle]

if anyone wants to be reminded why HLG is doing so poorly last mth 3% down compared to bgr up 15% for the mth and whs 9% up for the mth its because hlg is in aus and that market is getting hammered just today retail sales data in aus shows in july clothing sales are down 15%. the smart money went to bgr and whs its not to late in my opinion to board the winners.

HLG will be taking the generous Australian Govt wage subsidies and now the N.Z. ones as well and are smart enough to keep them. Meanwhile their exceptional online shopping websites will be garnering a lot of traffic.

[Balance]

nothing like a good gamble on a surprise

Is that what you call it?

Good gamble? Buy high sell low.

[nztx]

Is that what you call it?

Good gamble? Buy high sell low.


Don't tell anyone .. but I did similar on NZO heading into Ironbark revelation time

I now have higher HLG levels to compensate for spur of the moment gambles :)

[winner69]

The Board & Management of most if not all listed companies probably get to see quarterlies (if not monthly reports)
for any listed company of any significance - whether NZX could cope with a myriad of quarterlies (past mining
reporting currently) could be another matter .. ;)

Last job I had in a corporate (before divorcing myself from the evils of corporate carry ons) was with a listed ASX company with 7 divisions (businesses) across 4 countries.

Month end went like this - day 4 each division submitted final accounts ……Followed by management commentary (no more than 2 pages) …….by day 6 corporate office had consolidated all finances and prepared full financial report ….day 8 CEO had sent financial report and commentary to the Board ……and sometime after that the Chair would discuss with the CEO

I’m sure HLG monitor sales and margins daily and shortly after the end of the month know how profitable they’ve been


betcha they don’t use Xero

[850man]

I agree, HLG has demonstrated itself to be a very successful business and that is not achieved without keeping a close eye on what's going on day by day

[nztx]

Last job I had in a corporate (before divorcing myself from the evils of corporate carry ons) was with a listed ASX company with 7 divisions (businesses) across 4 countries.

Month end went like this - day 4 each division submitted final accounts ……Followed by management commentary (no more than 2 pages) …….by day 6 corporate office had consolidated all finances and prepared full financial report ….day 8 CEO had sent financial report and commentary to the Board ……and sometime after that the Chair would discuss with the CEO

I’m sure HLG monitor sales and margins daily and shortly after the end of the month know how profitable they’ve been


betcha they don’t use Xero



Hahaha agreed :)

[Balance]

Hmm bull getting negative on HLG again, thats a signal to start thinking about when to start pulling the buy trigger. Lol

Prophetic words, couta1.

[see weed]

I agree, HLG has demonstrated itself to be a very successful business and that is not achieved without keeping a close eye on what's going on day by day
This is right. The only problem is every time I want to buy or sell a few thousand it pushes the sp up or down 10 or 20c. and that starts a snow ball effect eg July to August from $7.40s to $6.70s. I think it was Beagle who had the right idea a while back, for a 1 for 3 or a 1 for 5 share split :t_up:.

[Balance]

This is right. The only problem is every time I want to buy or sell a few thousand it pushes the sp up or down 10 or 20c. and that starts a snow ball effect eg July to August from $7.40s to $6.70s. I think it was Beagle who had the right idea a while back, for a 1 for 3 or a 1 for 5 share split :t_up:.

Go against your instincts then - sell when you feel like buying and vice versa. Seriously - worked for me in the old days.

[bull....]

harvey norman just released results say sales in aus down 20% last 2 mths in NZ sales are down 13% obviously most of the sales drop is related to the last 2 weeks of lockdown in NZ they say for both countries they see sales bouncing back once lockdowns finish

[STr]

harvey norman just released results say sales in aus down 20% last 2 mths in NZ sales are down 13% obviously most of the sales drop is related to the last 2 weeks of lockdown in NZ they say for both countries they see sales bouncing back once lockdowns finish

I wonder how much of a bounce back there will be - fair bit of talk going on now that there are only so many couches and TVs that we can purchase - and perhaps the previous bounce back (off the back of the L4 lockdown last year) was a gift. This lockdown in AKL is hurting more than the previous ones and with continual uncertainty on future lockdowns, even when vaccinated, will the wallets open as wide this time round ? It will be interesting to keep a watch on this one.

[Balance]

I wonder how much of a bounce back there will be - fair bit of talk going on now that there are only so many couches and TVs that we can purchase - and perhaps the previous bounce back (off the back of the L4 lockdown last year) was a gift. This lockdown in AKL is hurting more than the previous ones and with continual uncertainty on future lockdowns, even when vaccinated, will the wallets open as wide this time round ? It will be interesting to keep a watch on this one.

Government is still pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into households. And there’s not going to be overseas travel for at least another (optimistic) 6 months.

I am told by a furniture store owner that their biggest problem is getting shipments in time to supply & sell. They have been taking 10% deposits to secure furniture and appliances - appliances are about a month behind schedule but furniture is running 3 months behind scheduled delivery!

[winner69]

ANZ economist said about the last past lockdown boom - “The wealth impacts on spending were huge". The 30% increase in house prices helped.

Bounce might not be as big this time around …..as they say house prices won’t be going up 30% this time.

All speculation ….media and expert commentary all noise anyway

[bull....]

I wonder how much of a bounce back there will be - fair bit of talk going on now that there are only so many couches and TVs that we can purchase - and perhaps the previous bounce back (off the back of the L4 lockdown last year) was a gift. This lockdown in AKL is hurting more than the previous ones and with continual uncertainty on future lockdowns, even when vaccinated, will the wallets open as wide this time round ? It will be interesting to keep a watch on this one.

As long as the property market keeps humming , spending will remain strong for a while yet. 2 very important factors keeping the NZ economy going at the moment.
things will slow down late next yr is my pick as rbnz raise rates and property market cools hence retail spend will decline some , not crash. world economy has already reached peak growth this cycle doesnt mean growth in the world wont remain robust though just slow from peak at this stage.

[Beagle]

ANZ economist said about the last past lockdown boom - “The wealth impacts on spending were huge". The 30% increase in house prices helped.

Bounce might not be as big this time around …..as they say house prices won’t be going up 30% this time.

All speculation ….media and expert commentary all noise anyway

We only knew about the house price increases after the fact but that didn't stop people spending as soon as they could. I think the very low interest rates and lack of ability to travel internationally are the two biggest factors. Sure, house price gains help too.

[winner69]

harvey norman just released results say sales in aus down 20% last 2 mths in NZ sales are down 13% obviously most of the sales drop is related to the last 2 weeks of lockdown in NZ they say for both countries they see sales bouncing back once lockdowns finish

I see Gerry has repaid JobKeeper subsidies

Made zillions …didn’t really need them

[bull....]

I see Gerry has repaid JobKeeper subsidies

Made zillions …didn’t really need them

yes gerry saw the light and realised long term it was better for business considering all the blow back he was getting in aus. dont know if he paid his nz one back , but then again the bunch at the top in NZ dont really care if you do or you dont unlike in aus.

[Waltzing]

TV1 news showing that the local fashion shoppers are still at it..

[winner69]

Way HLG share price going we could see new all time high before the results announcement

Must be going to a boomer of a result

Weak hands gone - up up and away

[winner69]

Kiwibank Household Spending Tracker - seems no real worries for HLG, even more so seeing mention online more popular this year

Lockdown 2021 Kiwibank credit and debit card spending

“The Drop” was shallower, and “The Rebound” is coming

[winner69]

Hallensteins and Glassons don't seem to have got the wage subsidy this time around ....yet

[Balance]

Hallensteins and Glassons don't seem to have got the wage subsidy this time around ....yet

Read it as revenues weren't so badly impacted?

[Arbroath]

This is the first year in about a decade they haven't given a proper trading update with sales and expected net profit by the end of August...can't be that hard especially if they are not claiming the wage subsidy to get the numbers out!

[Balance]

This is the first year in about a decade they haven't given a proper trading update with sales and expected net profit by the end of August...can't be that hard especially if they are not claiming the wage subsidy to get the numbers out!

Could be because they have decided to use part of the cash mountain to pay a special dividend or share buyback.

[Arbroath]

Could be because they have decided to use part of the cash mountain to pay a special dividend or share buyback.

Anything is possible but they never announce the dividend until full result release at the end of September. My point really is they know the numbers but are choosing not to share them with the market like they have for years every early/mid August.

[Jantar]

This is the first year in about a decade they haven't given a proper trading update with sales and expected net profit by the end of August...can't be that hard especially if they are not claiming the wage subsidy to get the numbers out! Could it be that there is nothing to update? That the numbers are exactly within the range of their last update.

[Arbroath]

Could it be that there is nothing to update? That the numbers are exactly within the range of their last update.

No, because they don't put out clear FY guidance due to the vagaries of retail...exactly why for years they've put out an update in the first or second week of August although they didn't in 2015 for whatever reason.

This company has always been light on shareholder communication and they really should do better. A great retailer but an average communicator.

[winner69]

No, because they don't put out clear FY guidance due to the vagaries of retail...exactly why for years they've put out an update in the first or second week of August although they didn't in 2015 for whatever reason.

This company has always been light on shareholder communication and they really should do better. A great retailer but an average communicator.

2015 wasn't a very good year

Shareprice was about 320/330 mid 2015 and headed to the 270s following full year announcement

[winner69]

Hope Glassons don’t have a long expensive lease on their Chapel St Melbourne store …….ghost town unlikely to be the bustling centre it once was

https://www.news.com.au/finance/small-business/slow-death-covid19-savages-chapel-street-small-businesses/news-story/0a3aee45ed88066dc459ee444333c223

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Hope Glassons don’t have a long expensive lease on their Chapel St Melbourne store …….ghost town unlikely to be the bustling centre it once was

https://www.news.com.au/finance/small-business/slow-death-covid19-savages-chapel-street-small-businesses/news-story/0a3aee45ed88066dc459ee444333c223

Australia will be at 80%+ vaccination level by October end - I’m sure this place will be bustling come the crucial Xmas shopping season.

[clearasmud]

That would be 1st vaccination.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

That would be 1st vaccination.

current estimates for DOUBLE vaccination in Australia (countrywide):

70% by Oct 30
80% by Nov 17
90% by Dec 4

however NSW & VIC are currently vaccinating faster than the Australian nationwide rate, so should reach those milestones faster.

[clearasmud]

current estimates for DOUBLE vaccination in Australia (countrywide):

70% by Oct 30
80% by Nov 17
90% by Dec 4

however NSW & VIC are currently vaccinating faster than the Australian nationwide rate, so should reach those milestones faster.
That is good.
The end of lockdowns should be soon then?

[TheHunter]

current estimates for DOUBLE vaccination in Australia (countrywide):

70% by Oct 30
80% by Nov 17
90% by Dec 4

however NSW & VIC are currently vaccinating faster than the Australian nationwide rate, so should reach those milestones faster.

I'll bet you a box of Fosters that Australia isn't 90% double vaccinated by Dec 4.

[LaserEyeKiwi]

I'll bet you a box of Fosters that Australia isn't 90% double vaccinated by Dec 4.

I would actually agree with you - I think somewhere between the 80% to 90% level you start hitting the “vaccine hesitant” crowd and progress will slow. But Australia are already committed to ending lockdowns before reaching 90% anyway.

[bull....]

whs , bgp the best in the sector last 3 mths , people switching holdings is quite evident

[Balance]

whs , bgp the best in the sector last 3 mths , people switching holdings is quite evident

How’s your ATM position going?

[bull....]

How’s your ATM position going?


trade went to crap


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SX8nicMsUN0